WorldWideScience

Sample records for regional svat model

  1. Effects of land-use changes on evapotranspiration of tropical rain forest margin area in Central Sulawesi (Indonesia): Modelling study with a regional SVAT model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olchev, A.; Ibrom, Andreas; Priess, J.

    2008-01-01

    The impact of deforestation and land-use changes on evapotranspiration of mountainous tropical rain forest area in the northern part of the Lore-Lindu National Park (LLNP) in Central Sulawesi (Indonesia) was quantified using a regional process-based SVAT model "SVAT-Regio". Description...... of the areas covered by tropical rain forests, i.e. about 15%, and an increase of agricultural (coffee plantations, corn and rice fields) and urban areas. Moreover, the scenario assumes a small increase of grassland areas as well. The results of modelling experiments show that 15% deforestation of the study......, and lowest in sunny and dry days. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  2. Multi-year assessment of soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modeling uncertainties over a Mediterranean agricultural site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J.-C.; Lafont, S.; Martin, E.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Bertrand, N.; Desfonds, V.; Renard, D.

    2012-04-01

    Vegetation productivity and water balance of Mediterranean regions will be particularly affected by climate and land-use changes. In order to analyze and predict these changes through land surface models, a critical step is to quantify the uncertainties associated with these models (processes, parameters) and their implementation over a long period of time. Besides, uncertainties attached to the data used to force these models (atmospheric forcing, vegetation and soil characteristics, crop management practices...) which are generally available at coarse spatial resolution (>1-10 km) and for a limited number of plant functional types, need to be evaluated. This paper aims at assessing the uncertainties in water (evapotranspiration) and energy fluxes estimated from a Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) model over a Mediterranean agricultural site. While similar past studies focused on particular crop types and limited period of time, the originality of this paper consists in implementing the SVAT model and assessing its uncertainties over a long period of time (10 years), encompassing several cycles of distinct crops (wheat, sorghum, sunflower, peas). The impacts on the SVAT simulations of the following sources of uncertainties are characterized: - Uncertainties in atmospheric forcing are assessed comparing simulations forced with local meteorological measurements and simulations forced with re-analysis atmospheric dataset (SAFRAN database). - Uncertainties in key surface characteristics (soil, vegetation, crop management practises) are tested comparing simulations feeded with standard values from global database (e.g. ECOCLIMAP) and simulations based on in situ or site-calibrated values. - Uncertainties dues to the implementation of the SVAT model over a long period of time are analyzed with regards to crop rotation. The SVAT model being analyzed in this paper is ISBA in its a-gs version which simulates the photosynthesis and its coupling with the stomata

  3. Furthering our Understanding of Land Surface Interactions using SVAT modelling: Results from SimSphere's Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, Matt; Petropoulos, George; Ireland, Gareth; Rendal, Daisy; Carlson, Toby

    2015-04-01

    With current predicted climate change, there is an increased requirement to gain knowledge on the terrestrial biosphere, for numerous agricultural, hydrological and meteorological applications. To this end, Soil Vegetation Atmospheric Transfer (SVAT) models are quickly becoming the preferred scientific tool to monitor, at fine temporal and spatial resolutions, detailed information on numerous parameters associated with Earth system interactions. Validation of any model is critical to assess its accuracy, generality and realism to distinctive ecosystems and subsequently acts as important step before its operational distribution. In this study, the SimSphere SVAT model has been validated to fifteen different sites of the FLUXNET network, where model performance was statistically evaluated by directly comparing the model predictions vs in situ data, for cloud free days with a high energy balance closure. Specific focus is given to the models ability to simulate parameters associated with the energy balance, namely Shortwave Incoming Solar Radiation (Rg), Net Radiation (Rnet), Latent Heat (LE), Sensible Heat (H), Air Temperature at 1.3m (Tair 1.3m) and Air temperature at 50m (Tair 50m). Comparisons were performed for a number distinctive ecosystem types and for 150 days in total using in-situ data from ground observational networks acquired from the year 2011 alone. Evaluation of the models' coherence to reality was evaluated on the basis of a series of statistical parameters including RMSD, R2, Scatter, Bias, MAE , NASH index, Slope and Intercept. Results showed good to very good agreement between predicted and observed datasets, particularly so for LE, H, Tair 1.3m and Tair 50m where mean error distribution values indicated excellent model performance. Due to the systematic underestimation, poorer simulation accuracies were exhibited for Rg and Rnet, yet all values reported are still analogous to other validatory studies of its kind. In overall, the model

  4. Development of SVAT model for computing water and energy balance of the forest intensive monitoring plots on Olkiluoto island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.

    2009-06-01

    This Working Report presents the main results of SVAT (Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere- Transfer) model that was developed to analyze the different water and energy balance components of the Forest Intensive monitoring plots (FIP) on Olkiluoto Island. The Olkiluoto SVAT model divides above ground vegetation in two layers: overstorey (trees) and understorey. Hydrological processes that are quantified in the SVAT model of forest stands include precipitation, interception, evaporation, transpiration, snow accumulation and melt, soil and ground water movement, overland flow, horizontal subsurface flow and flow to forest ditches. In this report outlines for simplifying the existing SVAT model to a computational tool that can be used in biosphere modeling for long-term safety purposes are also given. The functioning of forest ecosystems on Olkiluoto Island is studied in Forest Intensive monitoring Plots (FIP): FIP4 (Scots pine forest), FIP10 (Norway spruce forest) and FIP11 (young Norway spruce/birch forest). Within the forest intensive monitoring plots (FIP4, 10 and 11) stand meteorological measurements are recorded once an hour. The parameters are air temperature, minimum and maximum temperature inside the crown layer and above the canopy, radiation, relative humidity, precipitation, soil moisture content, soil temperature and sap flow measurements (May 2007- June 2008). Measured versus computed cumulative stand throughfall were in good agreement with each other indicating that the SVAT model can be calibrated to reproduce very well the measured throughfall rates. Estimated stem flow was around 10% of precipitation for the Scots pine forest (FIP4), around 4 % for Norway spruce forest (FIP10) and about 3 % for young Norway spruce/birch forest (FIP11). For FIP4 the computed interception values were approximately 3-4 % bigger than the measured values but SVAT model predicted the yearly variation very well. For FIP10 average computed value was around 1 % smaller than the

  5. Assessment of the phenology impact on SVAT modelling through a crop growth model over a Mediterranean crop site : Consequences on the water balance under climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulin, S.; Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Ruget, F.; Desfonds, V.; Bertrand, N.; Lecharpentier, P.; Ripoche, D.; Launay, M.; Brisson, N.

    2012-04-01

    In the coming years, water resources and vegetation production of Mediterranean areas will be drastically affected by climate changes as well as intense and rapid changes in the land use. The impact of climate and land-use changes on water balance and vegetation production can be analysed and predicted through land surface models, provided that the uncertainties associated to these models and to the data used to run them are evaluated. Vegetation phenology is generally poorly taken into account in land surface models and may be a substantial source of uncertainties for global change scenario studies. In this paper, we discuss the improvement obtained in Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) modelling by taking into account the phenology using a crop growth model, focusing on the water budget, over a Mediterranean crop site. The STICS model (Brisson et al, 1998) is used to simulate crop processes (growth and development, taking into account water and nitrogen exchanges between the environment and the crop). STICS describes the vegetation phenology very accurately and was validated for many types of crop and various pedoclimatic conditions. The SVAT model being analyzed is the a-gs version (Calvet et al., 1998) of the ISBA model (Noilhan et al, 1989), which simulates the photosynthesis and calculates the plant biomass and the Leaf Area Index (LAI) using a simple growth model. In STICS, the phenology is driven by the sum of daily air temperatures, which is quite realistic, while in ISBA, the phenology is driven by the plant carbon assimilation. Measurements (vegetation characteristics, soil properties, agricultural practises, energy and water balance) performed in the lower Rhone valley experimental area (Avignon, France) are used as well as long series of climatic data (past records and future simulations). In a first step, by running STICS and ISBA for maize and wheat crops with long series of climatic data, including future scenarios of climate (CLIMATOR

  6. SVAT modeling of crop physiological response to drought in potatoes under different types of deficit irrigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plauborg, Finn; Mollerup, Mikkel; Abrahamsen, Per

    of abscisic acid in the root system and as well as its influence on stomatal regulation of gas exhange has been implemented in the Daisy model, a comprehensive work partly financed by the SAFIR project ( http://www.safir4eu.org/ ). Hence, the improved Daisy model now calculates crop production based on gas...

  7. Validating a 1-D SVAT model in a range of USA and Australian ecosystems: evidence towards its use as a tool to study Earth's system interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petropoulos, G. P.; North, M. R.; Ireland, G.; Srivastava, P. K.; Rendall, D. V.

    2015-03-01

    This paper describes the validation of the SimSphere SVAT model conducted at different ecosystem types in the USA and Australia. Specific focus was given to examining the models' ability in predicting Shortwave Incoming Solar Radiation (Rg), Net Radiation (Rnet), Latent Heat (LE), Sensible Heat (H), Air Temperature at 1.3 m (Tair 1.3 m) and Air Temperature at 50 m (Tair 50 m). Model predictions were compared against corresponding in situ measurements acquired for a total of 72 selected days of the year 2011 obtained from 8 sites belonging to the AmeriFlux (USA) and OzFlux (Australia) monitoring networks. Selected sites were representative of a variety of environmental, biome and climatic conditions, to allow for the inclusion of contrasting conditions in the model evaluation. The application of the model confirmed its high capability in representing the multifarious and complex interactions of the Earth system. Comparisons showed a good agreement between modelled and measured fluxes, especially for the days with smoothed daily flux trends. A good to excellent agreement between the model predictions and the in situ measurements was reported, particularly so for the LE, H, T1.3 m and T 50 m parameters (RMSD = 39.47, 55.06 W m-2, 3.23, 3.77 °C respectively). A systematic underestimation of Rg and Rnet (RMSD = 67.83, 58.69 W m-2, MBE = 67.83, 58.69 W m-2 respectively) was also found. Highest simulation accuracies were obtained for the open woodland savannah and mulga woodland sites for most of the compared parameters. Very high values of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index were also reported for all parameters ranging from 0.720 to 0.998, suggesting a very good model representation of the observations. To our knowledge, this study presents the first comprehensive validation of SimSphere, particularly so in USA and Australian ecosystem types. Findings are important and timely, given the rapidly expanding use of this model worldwide both as an educational and research

  8. Comparison of SVAT models for simulating and optimizing deficit irrigation systems in arid and semi-arid countries under climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloss, Sebastian; Schuetze, Niels; Schmitz, Gerd H.

    2010-05-01

    The strong competition for fresh water in order to fulfill the increased demand for food worldwide has led to a renewed interest in techniques to improve water use efficiency (WUE) such as controlled deficit irrigation. Furthermore, as the implementation of crop models into complex decision support systems becomes more and more common, it is imperative to reliably predict the WUE as ratio of water consumption and yield. The objective of this paper is the assessment of the problems the crop models - such as FAO-33, DAISY, and APSIM in this study - face when maximizing the WUE. We applied these crop models for calculating the risk in yield reduction in view of different sources of uncertainty (e.g. climate) employing a stochastic framework for decision support for the planning of water supply in irrigation. The stochastic framework consists of: (i) a weather generator for simulating regional impacts of climate change; (ii) a new tailor-made evolutionary optimization algorithm for optimal irrigation scheduling with limited water supply; and (iii) the above mentioned models for simulating water transport and crop growth in a sound manner. The results present stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPF) for different crops which can be used as basic tools for assessing the impact of climate variability on the risk for the potential yield. Case studies from India, Oman, Malawi, and France are presented to assess the differences in modeling water stress and yield response for the different crop models.

  9. Quantifying the prediction accuracy of a 1-D SVAT model at a range of ecosystems in the USA and Australia: evidence towards its use as a tool to study Earth's system interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petropoulos, G. P.; North, M. R.; Ireland, G.; Srivastava, P. K.; Rendall, D. V.

    2015-10-01

    This paper describes the validation of the SimSphere SVAT (Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer) model conducted at a range of US and Australian ecosystem types. Specific focus was given to examining the models' ability in predicting shortwave incoming solar radiation (Rg), net radiation (Rnet), latent heat (LE), sensible heat (H), air temperature at 1.3 m (Tair 1.3 m) and air temperature at 50 m (Tair 50 m). Model predictions were compared against corresponding in situ measurements acquired for a total of 72 selected days of the year 2011 obtained from eight sites belonging to the AmeriFlux (USA) and OzFlux (Australia) monitoring networks. Selected sites were representative of a variety of environmental, biome and climatic conditions, to allow for the inclusion of contrasting conditions in the model evaluation. Overall, results showed a good agreement between the model predictions and the in situ measurements, particularly so for the Rg, Rnet, Tair 1.3 m and Tair 50 m parameters. The simulated Rg parameter exhibited a root mean square deviation (RMSD) within 25 % of the observed fluxes for 58 of the 72 selected days, whereas an RMSD within ~ 24 % of the observed fluxes was reported for the Rnet parameter for all days of study (RMSD = 58.69 W m-2). A systematic underestimation of Rg and Rnet (mean bias error (MBE) = -19.48 and -16.46 W m-2) was also found. Simulations for the Tair 1.3 m and Tair 50 m showed good agreement with the in situ observations, exhibiting RMSDs of 3.23 and 3.77 °C (within ~ 15 and ~ 18 % of the observed) for all days of analysis, respectively. Comparable, yet slightly less satisfactory simulation accuracies were exhibited for the H and LE parameters (RMSDs = 38.47 and 55.06 W m-2, ~ 34 and ~ 28 % of the observed). Highest simulation accuracies were obtained for the open woodland savannah and mulga woodland sites for most of the compared parameters. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index for all parameters ranges from 0.720 to 0.998, suggesting

  10. FAO-56 Dual Model Combined with Multi-Sensor Remote Sensing for Regional Evapotranspiration Estimations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rim Amri

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this study is to evaluate the potential of the FAO-56 dual technique for the estimation of regional evapotranspiration (ET and its constituent components (crop transpiration and soil evaporation, for two classes of vegetation (olives trees and cereals in the semi-arid region of the Kairouan plain in central Tunisia. The proposed approach combines the FAO-56 technique with remote sensing (optical and microwave, not only for vegetation characterization, as proposed in other studies but also for the estimation of soil evaporation, through the use of satellite moisture products. Since it is difficult to use ground flux measurements to validate remotely sensed data at regional scales, comparisons were made with the land surface model ISBA-A-gs which is a physical SVAT (Soil–Vegetation–Atmosphere Transfer model, an operational tool developed by Météo-France. It is thus shown that good results can be obtained with this relatively simple approach, based on the FAO-56 technique combined with remote sensing, to retrieve temporal variations of ET. The approach proposed for the daily mapping of evapotranspiration at 1 km resolution is approved in two steps, for the period between 1991 and 2007. In an initial step, the ISBA-A-gs soil moisture outputs are compared with ERS/WSC products. Then, the output of the FAO-56 technique is compared with the output generated by the SVAT ISBA-A-gs model.

  11. [Multicenter validation of an evaluation tool for clinical training activities (SVAT) of the nursing students].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finotto, Sergio; Gradellini, Cinzia; Bandini, Stefania; Burrai, Francesco; Lucchi Casadei, Sandra; Villani, Carolina; Vincenzi, Simone; Mecugni, Daniela

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate the psychometric characteristics of the Scheda di Valutazione delle Attività di Tirocinio (SVAT). The degree courses in Nursing of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, site of Reggio Emilia, the University of Bologna Formative Section BO1, Imola and training center of Cesena, the University of Ferrara training centers of Ferrara and Codigoro were all enrolled in the research. For the content validation the reactive Delphi method was chosen. The panel of experts expressed a qualitative-intuitive judgment on the adequacy of language and on the stimulus material (SVAT). For internal consistency Cronbach's alpha was calculated the. The test-retest method was used for the reliability of stability. all indicators of the SVAT have achieved a degree of consensus not less than 80% demonstrating its content validity. The face validity is demonstrated by an average score equal to or greater than 7 obtained by all indicators. The reliability of internal consistency of the SVAT was appraised by Cronbach's alpha that was 0.987 for the entire instrument. The reliability of the stability has been calculated through the correlation's coefficient expressed by Pearson's r that was 0.983 (p = 1.3E-198). in Italy there is no a "gold standard" tool to evaluate the clinical performance of nursing students during and at the end of their clinical training. The SVAT proves to be a valuable and reliable tool it furthermore could stimulate the discussion and the debate among educators and nurses, so that also in our country, it may be possible develop and refine tools that support the evaluation of clinical skills of nursing students.

  12. HRM: HII Region Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Trey V.; Kepley, Amanda K.; Balser, Dana S.

    2017-07-01

    HII Region Models fits HII region models to observed radio recombination line and radio continuum data. The algorithm includes the calculations of departure coefficients to correct for non-LTE effects. HII Region Models has been used to model star formation in the nucleus of IC 342.

  13. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  14. Assimilation of a thermal remote sensing-based soil moisture proxy into a root-zone water balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crow, W. T.; Kustas, W. P.

    2006-05-01

    Two types of Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) modeling approaches are commonly applied to monitoring root-zone soil water availability. Water and Energy Balance (WEB) SVAT modeling are based forcing a prognostic water balance model with precipitation observations. In constrast, thermal Remote Sensing (RS) observations of canopy radiometric temperatures can be integrated into purely diagnostic SVAT models to predict the onset of vegetation water stress due to low root-zone soil water availability. Unlike WEB-SVAT models, RS-SVAT models do not require observed precipitation. Using four growings seasons (2001 to 2004) of profile soil moisture, micro-meteorology, and surface radiometric temperature observations at the USDA's OPE3 site, root-zone soil moisture predictions made by both WEB- and RS-SVAT modeling approaches are intercompared with each other and availible root- zone soil moisture observations. Results indicate that root-zone soil moisture estimates derived from a WEB- SVAT model have slightly more skill in detecting soil moisture anomalies at the site than comporable predictions from a competing RS-SVAT modeling approach. However, the relative advantage of the WEB-SVAT model disappears when it is forced with lower-quality rainfall information typical of continental and global-scale rainfall data sets. Most critically, root-zone soil moisture errors associated with both modeling approaches are sufficiently independent such that the merger of both information from both proxies - using either simple linear averaging or an Ensemble Kalman filter - creates a merge soil moisture estimate that is more accurate than either of its parent components.

  15. A modelling approach for simulation of water and carbon dioxide exchange between multi-species tropical rain forest and the atmosphere

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olchev, A.; Ibrom, Andreas; Ross, T.

    2008-01-01

    An one-dimensional process-based SVAT model (Mixfor-SVAT) was developed to describe energy, water and carbon dioxide exchanges between vegetation canopy and the atmosphere at a local scale. Simulation of the energy, water and CO2 fluxes in Mixfor-SVAT is based on aggregated description...... in measured data series caused by some instrumental errors, sensor wetting, changes in the footprint or fast changes in turbulence conditions resulted in some reduction of correlation between modeled and measured fluxes (e.g. r(2) = 0.62 for CO2 and r(2) = 0.64 for H2O fluxes under friction velocity u* > 0...

  16. The Scandinavian regional model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torfing, Jacob; Lidström, Anders; Røiseland, Asbjørn

    2015-01-01

    This article maps how the sub-national regional levels of governance in Denmark, Norway and Sweden have changed from a high degree of institutional convergence to a pattern of institutional divergence. It analyses the similarities and differences in the changes in regional governance and discusses...

  17. Hydrological modeling of the semi-arid Andarax river basin in Southern Spain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Flemming Hauge; Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Sandholt, Inge

    as this it will lead to better estimate of the groundwater recharge and hereby of the groundwater availability in the delta region.   The hydrological behaviour of the Andarax river basin is simulated by the MIKE SHE code, which is a physically based, distributed and integrated hydrological model. In the first...... scenario we only use traditional meteorological data and standard values for the vegetation characteristics. The traditional meteorological data are rather sparse for the Andarax river basin and to improve the estimation of evapotranspiration we use an energy-based two-layer SVAT model and apply remote...

  18. Users guide to REGIONAL-1: a regional assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, W.E.; Eadie, W.J.; Powell, D.C.

    1979-09-01

    A guide was prepared to allow a user to run the PNL long-range transport model, REGIONAL 1. REGIONAL 1 is a computer model set up to run atmospheric assessments on a regional basis. The model has the capability of being run in three modes for a single time period. The three modes are: (1) no deposition, (2) dry deposition, (3) wet and dry deposition. The guide provides the physical and mathematical basis used in the model for calculating transport, diffusion, and deposition for all three modes. Also the guide includes a program listing with an explanation of the listings and an example in the form of a short-term assessment for 48 hours. The purpose of the example is to allow a person who has past experience with programming and meteorology to operate the assessment model and compare his results with the guide results. This comparison will assure the user that the program is operating in a proper fashion

  19. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Samoa

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at approximately 3-km resolution. While considerable...

  20. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 6-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding Guam at approximately 2-km resolution. While considerable effort has been...

  1. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the island of Oahu at approximately 1-km resolution. While considerable...

  2. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): CNMI

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) at approximately...

  3. Spatial scale separation in regional climate modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feser, F.

    2005-07-01

    In this thesis the concept of scale separation is introduced as a tool for first improving regional climate model simulations and, secondly, to explicitly detect and describe the added value obtained by regional modelling. The basic idea behind this is that global and regional climate models have their best performance at different spatial scales. Therefore the regional model should not alter the global model's results at large scales. The for this purpose designed concept of nudging of large scales controls the large scales within the regional model domain and keeps them close to the global forcing model whereby the regional scales are left unchanged. For ensemble simulations nudging of large scales strongly reduces the divergence of the different simulations compared to the standard approach ensemble that occasionally shows large differences for the individual realisations. For climate hindcasts this method leads to results which are on average closer to observed states than the standard approach. Also the analysis of the regional climate model simulation can be improved by separating the results into different spatial domains. This was done by developing and applying digital filters that perform the scale separation effectively without great computational effort. The separation of the results into different spatial scales simplifies model validation and process studies. The search for 'added value' can be conducted on the spatial scales the regional climate model was designed for giving clearer results than by analysing unfiltered meteorological fields. To examine the skill of the different simulations pattern correlation coefficients were calculated between the global reanalyses, the regional climate model simulation and, as a reference, of an operational regional weather analysis. The regional climate model simulation driven with large-scale constraints achieved a high increase in similarity to the operational analyses for medium-scale 2 meter

  4. Models for Sustainable Regional Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China.......The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China....

  5. Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

    2003-01-01

    An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km...

  6. Calibration of an integrated land surface process and radiobrightness (LSP/R) model during summertime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judge, Jasmeet; England, Anthony W.; Metcalfe, John R.; McNichol, David; Goodison, Barry E.

    2008-01-01

    In this study, a soil vegetation and atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model was linked with a microwave emission model to simulate microwave signatures for different terrain during summertime, when the energy and moisture fluxes at the land surface are strong. The integrated model, land surface process/radiobrightness (LSP/R), was forced with weather and initial conditions observed during a field experiment. It simulated the fluxes and brightness temperatures for bare soil and brome grass in the Northern Great Plains. The model estimates of soil temperature and moisture profiles and terrain brightness temperatures were compared with the observed values. Overall, the LSP model provides realistic estimates of soil moisture and temperature profiles to be used with a microwave model. The maximum mean differences and standard deviations between the modeled and the observed temperatures (canopy and soil) were 2.6 K and 6.8 K, respectively; those for the volumetric soil moisture were 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Brightness temperatures at 19 GHz matched well with the observations for bare soil, when a rough surface model was incorporated indicating reduced dielectric sensitivity to soil moisture by surface roughness. The brightness temperatures of the brome grass matched well with the observations indicating that a simple emission model was sufficient to simulate accurate brightness temperatures for grass typical of that region and surface roughness was not a significant issue for grass-covered soil at 19 GHz. Such integrated SVAT-microwave models allow for direct assimilation of microwave observations and can also be used to understand sensitivity of microwave signatures to changes in weather forcings and soil conditions for different terrain types.

  7. Regional transport model of atmospheric sulfates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, K.S.; Thomson, I.; Egan, B.A.

    1977-01-01

    As part of the Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE) Design Project, a regional transport model of atmospheric sulfates has been developed. This quasi-Lagrangian three-dimensional grid numerical model uses a detailed SO 2 emission inventory of major anthropogenic sources in the Eastern U.S. region, and observed meteorological data during an episode as inputs. The model accounts for advective transport and turbulent diffusion of the pollutants. The chemical transformation of SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ and the deposition of the species at the earth's surface are assumed to be linear processes at specified constant rates. The numerical model can predict the daily average concentrations of SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ at all receptor locations in the grid region during the episode. Because of the spatial resolution of the grid, this model is particularly suited to investigate the effect of tall stacks in reducing the ambient concentration levels of sulfur pollutants. This paper presents the formulations and assumptions of the regional sulfate transport model. The model inputs and results are discussed. Isopleths of predicted SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ concentrations are compared with the observed ground level values. The bulk of the information in this paper is directed to air pollution meteorologists and environmental engineers interested in the atmospheric transport modeling studies of sulfur oxide pollutants

  8. Hydrological land surface modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ridler, Marc-Etienne Francois

    Recent advances in integrated hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modelling have led to improved water resource management practices, greater crop production, and better flood forecasting systems. However, uncertainty is inherent in all numerical models ultimately leading...... temperature are explored in a multi-objective calibration experiment to optimize the parameters in a SVAT model in the Sahel. The two satellite derived variables were effective at constraining most land-surface and soil parameters. A data assimilation framework is developed and implemented with an integrated...... and disaster management. The objective of this study is to develop and investigate methods to reduce hydrological model uncertainty by using supplementary data sources. The data is used either for model calibration or for model updating using data assimilation. Satellite estimates of soil moisture and surface...

  9. Models of Regional Modernization of the Donbass Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantin Viktorovich Pavlov

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the methodical approach to the assessment of a level of development of post-industrial and neoindustrial models of economic modernization in regional aspect on the basis of various indicators. The proposed approach is approved with use of the statistical materials characterizing the state of economy in the regions of Donbass. The strategy of development of Donbass areas and their industrial cities would have to be based (we mean the situation if there were no military operations on this territory on the basis of the model of neoindustrialization assuming development of the sphere of the hi-tech industry, automation and a computerization of productive forces, replacement of physical work by intellectual labor that is radically capable to change nature of work and structure of labor balance of this macro-region. Branches and sectors of a socio-economic complex of the Donbass region using achievements of fundamental and applied science, engineering and design thought for increase in a share of automation, a computerization and mechanization of workplaces, physical and brainwork prior to the beginning of a political conflict in Ukraine have the potential of development. The authors also pay attention to need of studying the agglomerative effect from interaction of the cities and areas of the Donbass euroregion. It is connected, first of all, with development of vertical and horizontal mechanisms of active use of potential of so-called “cities-kernels”, capable to make the catalyzing impact on production, social infrastructure, creation and development of new perspective branches in the cities-satellites.

  10. Energy and externality environmental regional model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldi, L.; Bianchi, A.; Peri, M.

    2000-01-01

    The use of environmental externalities in both territorial management and the direction of energy and environment, faces the difficulties arising from their calculation. The so-called MACBET regional model, which has been constructed for Lombardy, is a first brand new attempt to overcome them. MACBET is a calculation model to assess environmental and employment externalities connected to energy use [it

  11. Regional Models for Sediment Toxicity Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper investigates the use of empirical models to predict the toxicity of sediment samples within a region to laboratory test organisms based on sediment chemistry. In earlier work, we used a large nationwide database of matching sediment chemistry and marine amphipod sedim...

  12. Improving stability of regional numerical ocean models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzfeld, Mike

    2009-02-01

    An operational limited-area ocean modelling system was developed to supply forecasts of ocean state out to 3 days. This system is designed to allow non-specialist users to locate the model domain anywhere within the Australasian region with minimum user input. The model is required to produce a stable simulation every time it is invoked. This paper outlines the methodology used to ensure the model remains stable over the wide range of circumstances it might encounter. Central to the model configuration is an alternative approach to implementing open boundary conditions in a one-way nesting environment. Approximately 170 simulations were performed on limited areas in the Australasian region to assess the model stability; of these, 130 ran successfully with a static model parameterisation allowing a statistical estimate of the model’s approach toward instability to be determined. Based on this, when the model was deemed to be approaching instability a strategy of adaptive intervention in the form of constraint on velocity and elevation was invoked to maintain stability.

  13. Modeling disordered regions in proteins using Rosetta.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ray Yu-Ruei Wang

    Full Text Available Protein structure prediction methods such as Rosetta search for the lowest energy conformation of the polypeptide chain. However, the experimentally observed native state is at a minimum of the free energy, rather than the energy. The neglect of the missing configurational entropy contribution to the free energy can be partially justified by the assumption that the entropies of alternative folded states, while very much less than unfolded states, are not too different from one another, and hence can be to a first approximation neglected when searching for the lowest free energy state. The shortcomings of current structure prediction methods may be due in part to the breakdown of this assumption. Particularly problematic are proteins with significant disordered regions which do not populate single low energy conformations even in the native state. We describe two approaches within the Rosetta structure modeling methodology for treating such regions. The first does not require advance knowledge of the regions likely to be disordered; instead these are identified by minimizing a simple free energy function used previously to model protein folding landscapes and transition states. In this model, residues can be either completely ordered or completely disordered; they are considered disordered if the gain in entropy outweighs the loss of favorable energetic interactions with the rest of the protein chain. The second approach requires identification in advance of the disordered regions either from sequence alone using for example the DISOPRED server or from experimental data such as NMR chemical shifts. During Rosetta structure prediction calculations the disordered regions make only unfavorable repulsive contributions to the total energy. We find that the second approach has greater practical utility and illustrate this with examples from de novo structure prediction, NMR structure calculation, and comparative modeling.

  14. Thermal unit availability modeling in a regional simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamayee, Z.A.; Port, J.; Robinett, W.

    1983-01-01

    The System Analysis Model (SAM) developed under the umbrella of PNUCC's System Analysis Committee is capable of simulating the operation of a given load/resource scenario. This model employs a Monte-Carlo simulation to incorporate uncertainties. Among uncertainties modeled is thermal unit availability both for energy simulation (seasonal) and capacity simulations (hourly). This paper presents the availability modeling in the capacity and energy models. The use of regional and national data in deriving the two availability models, the interaction between the two and modifications made to the capacity model in order to reflect regional practices is presented. A sample problem is presented to show the modification process. Results for modeling a nuclear unit using NERC-GADS is presented

  15. Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

    1998-03-01

    Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

  16. A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

    2011-07-01

    Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leduc, Martin [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada); UQAM/Ouranos, Montreal, QC (Canada); Laprise, Rene [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada)

    2009-05-15

    Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the ''perfect model'' approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 x 100 grid points). The permanent ''spatial spin-up'' corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere. (orig.)

  18. Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, Martin; Laprise, René

    2009-05-01

    Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the “perfect model” approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 × 100 grid points). The permanent “spatial spin-up” corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere.

  19. FORMATION OF A INNOVATION REGIONAL CLUSTER MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Merzlikina

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. As a result of investigation of science and methodical approaches related problems of building and development of innovation clusters there were some issues in functional assignments of innovation and production clusters. Because of those issues, article’s authors differ conceptions of innovation cluster and production cluster, as they explain notion of innovation-production cluster. The main goal of this article is to reveal existing organizational issues in cluster building and its successful development. Based on regional clusters building analysis carried out there was typical practical structure of cluster members interaction revealed. This structure also have its cons, as following: absence cluster orientation to marketing environment, lack of members’ prolonged relations’ building and development system, along with ineffective management of information, financial and material streams within cluster, narrow competence difference and responsibility zones between cluster members, lack of transparence of cluster’s action, low environment changes adaptivity, hard to use cluster members’ intellectual property, and commercialization of hi-tech products. When all those issues listed above come together, it reduces life activity of existing models of innovative cluster-building along with practical opportunity of cluster realization. Because of that, authors offer an upgraded innovative-productive cluster building model with more efficient business processes management system, which includes advanced innovative cluster structure, competence matrix and subcluster responsibility zone. Suggested model differs from other ones by using unified innovative product development control center, which also controls production and marketing realization.

  20. Airport choice model in multiple airport regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Muñoz

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study aims to analyze travel choices made by air transportation users in multi airport regions because it is a crucial component when planning passenger redistribution policies. The purpose of this study is to find a utility function which makes it possible to know the variables that influence users’ choice of the airports on routes to the main cities in the Colombian territory. Design/methodology/approach: This research generates a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, which is based on the theory of maximizing utility, and it is based on the data obtained on revealed and stated preference surveys applied to users who reside in the metropolitan area of Aburrá Valley (Colombia. This zone is the only one in the Colombian territory which has two neighboring airports for domestic flights. The airports included in the modeling process were Enrique Olaya Herrera (EOH Airport and José María Córdova (JMC Airport. Several structure models were tested, and the MNL proved to be the most significant revealing the common variables that affect passenger airport choice include the airfare, the price to travel the airport, and the time to get to the airport. Findings and Originality/value: The airport choice model which was calibrated corresponds to a valid powerful tool used to calculate the probability of each analyzed airport of being chosen for domestic flights in the Colombian territory. This is done bearing in mind specific characteristic of each of the attributes contained in the utility function. In addition, these probabilities will be used to calculate future market shares of the two airports considered in this study, and this will be done generating a support tool for airport and airline marketing policies.

  1. Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. French

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

  2. The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

    2004-06-01

    The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

  3. A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard

    2016-04-01

    Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

  4. Forest growth modeling in the Southern Region, National Forest System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belcher, D.M.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses an attempt to combine individual tree growth models and stand level growth models currently available for the Region into one computer program. Operation of the program is explained and growth models are included

  5. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  6. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): CNMI: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI)...

  7. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Samoa: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at approximately 3-km resolution....

  8. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Main Hawaiian Islands: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the main Hawaiian islands at approximately 4-km...

  9. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Main Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the main Hawaiian islands at approximately 4-km resolution. While...

  10. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Oahu: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 2-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the island of Oahu at approximately 1-km resolution....

  11. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Oahu South Shore

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 2-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the south shore of the island of Oahu at approximately 200-m resolution....

  12. REGIONAL FIRST ORDER PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY FLOWS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ceyhun ÖZÇELİK

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available First order periodic autoregressive models is of mostly used models in modeling of time dependency of hydrological flow processes. In these models, periodicity of the correlogram is preserved as well as time dependency of processes. However, the parameters of these models, namely, inter-monthly lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients may be often estimated erroneously from short samples, since they are statistics of high order moments. Therefore, to constitute a regional model may be a solution that can produce more reliable and decisive estimates, and derive models and model parameters in any required point of the basin considered. In this study, definitions of homogeneous region for lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients are made; five parametric and non parametric models are proposed to set regional models of lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients. Regional models are applied on 30 stream flow gauging stations in Seyhan and Ceyhan basins, and tested by criteria of relative absolute bias, simple and relative root of mean square errors.

  13. Features of Balance Model Development of Exclave Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timur Rustamovich Gareev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the authors build a balance model for an exclave region. The aim of the work is to explore the unique properties of exclaves to evaluate the possibility of development of a more complex model for the economy of a region. Exclaves are strange phenomena in both theoretical and practical regional economy. There is lack of comparative models, so it is typically quite challenging to study exclaves. At the same time, exclaves produce better statistics, which gives more careful consideration of cross-regional economic flows. The authors discuss methodologies of model-based regional development forecasting. They analyze balance approach on a more general level of regional governance and individually, on the example of specific territories. Thus, they identify and explain the need to develop balance approach models fitted to the special needs of certain territories. By combining regional modeling for an exclave with traditional balance and simulation-based methods and event-based approach, they come up with a more detailed model for the economy of a region. Having taken one Russian exclave as an example, the authors have developed a simulation event-based long-term sustainability model. In the article, they provide the general characteristics of the model, describe its components, and simulation algorithm. The approach introduced in this article combines the traditional balance models and the peculiarities of an exclave region to develop a holistic regional economy model (with the Kaliningrad region serving as an example. It is important to underline that the resulting model helps to evaluate the degree of influence of preferential economic regimes (such as Free Customs Zone, for example on the economy of a region.

  14. The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Sanchez-Gomez, E. [Cerfacs/CNRS, SUC URA1875, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Goodess, C.M. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lenderink, G. [KNMI, Postbus 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark)

    2012-03-15

    Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM x GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

  15. Consistency and Reconciliation Model In Regional Development Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dina Suryawati

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to identify the problems and determine the conceptual model of regional development planning. Regional development planning is a systemic, complex and unstructured process. Therefore, this study used soft systems methodology to outline unstructured issues with a structured approach. The conceptual models that were successfully constructed in this study are a model of consistency and a model of reconciliation. Regional development planning is a process that is well-integrated with central planning and inter-regional planning documents. Integration and consistency of regional planning documents are very important in order to achieve the development goals that have been set. On the other hand, the process of development planning in the region involves technocratic system, that is, both top-down and bottom-up system of participation. Both must be balanced, do not overlap and do not dominate each other. regional, development, planning, consistency, reconciliation

  16. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  17. Abilities and limitations in the use of regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koeltzov, Morten Andreas Oedegaard

    2012-11-01

    In order to say something about the effect of climate change at the regional level, one takes in use regional climate models. In these models the thesis introduce regional features, which are not included in the global climate models (which are basically in climate research). Regional models can provide good and useful climate projections that add more value than the global climate models, but also introduces an uncertainty in the calculations. How should this uncertainty affect the use of regional climate models?The most common methodology for calculating potential future climate developments are based on different scenarios of possible emissions of greenhouse gases. These scenarios operates as global climate models using physical laws and calculate possible future developments. This is considered mathematical complexed and processes with limited supercomputing capacity calculates the global models for the larger scale of the climate system. To study the effects of climate change are regional details required and the regional models used therefore in a limited area of the climate system. These regional models are driven by data from the global models and refines and improves these data. Impact studies can then use the data from the regional models or data which are further processed to provide more local details using geo-statistical methods. In the preparation of the climate projections is there a minimum of 4 sources of uncertainty. This uncertainty is related to the provision of emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, uncertainties related to the use of global climate models, uncertainty related to the use of regional climate models and the uncertainty of internal variability in the climate system. This thesis discusses the use of regional climate models, and illustrates how the regional climate model adds value to climate projections, and at the same time introduce uncertainty in the calculations. It discusses in particular the importance of the choice of

  18. Modelling smart energy systems in tropical regions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dominkovic, D. F.; Dobravec, V.; Jiang, Y.

    2018-01-01

    and water desalination sectors. Five different large scale storages were modelled, too. The developed linear optimization model further included endogenous decisions about the share of district versus individual cooling, implementation of energy efficiency solutions and implementation of demand response...... emissions, 15% higher particulate matter emissions and 2% larger primary energy consumption compared to a business-as-usual case....

  19. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  20. Regional Dimensions of the Triple Helix Model: Setting the Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todeva, Emanuela; Danson, Mike

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces the rationale for the special issue and its contributions, which bridge the literature on regional development and the Triple Helix model. The concept of the Triple Helix at the sub-national, and specifically regional, level is established and examined, with special regard to regional economic development founded on…

  1. "Special Issue": Regional Dimensions of the Triple Helix Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todeva, Emanuela; Danson, Mike

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces the rationale for the special issue and its contributions, which bridge the literature on regional development and the Triple Helix model. The concept of the Triple Helix at the sub-national, and specifically regional, level is established and examined, with special regard to regional economic development founded on…

  2. Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. McKenzie; S.M. O' Neill; N. Larkin; R.A. Norheim

    2006-01-01

    Visibility impairment from regional haze is a significant problem throughout the continental United States. A substantial portion of regional haze is produced by smoke from prescribed and wildland fires. Here we describe the integration of four simulation models, an array of GIS raster layers, and a set of algorithms for fire-danger calculations into a modeling...

  3. ALTERNATIVE MODELS OF FINANCING REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina, GRADEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Public financing of infrastructure proved under performing at uneconomic prices, and because of political interference in the management of funds, understanding the problem leading to the adoption of private funding variant, an effective way of private funding being the financing of the project. Project financing is a concept that assessed by means of financing a specific technique. In this context, those granting funds usually through loans typically are only interested in cash flows and project profit, which are a source of funds for repayment of loans; they are less interested in the creditworthiness of those employed in the project (organizations, governments, communities and so on. This approach has led to the emergence of new ways of financing projects, new types of projects, such as regional and rural development.

  4. Ground Motion Prediction Models for Caucasus Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorjiashvili, Nato; Godoladze, Tea; Tvaradze, Nino; Tumanova, Nino

    2016-04-01

    Ground motion prediction models (GMPMs) relate ground motion intensity measures to variables describing earthquake source, path, and site effects. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. The most commonly used parameter for attenuation relation is peak ground acceleration or spectral acceleration because this parameter gives useful information for Seismic Hazard Assessment. Since 2003 development of Georgian Digital Seismic Network has started. In this study new GMP models are obtained based on new data from Georgian seismic network and also from neighboring countries. Estimation of models is obtained by classical, statistical way, regression analysis. In this study site ground conditions are additionally considered because the same earthquake recorded at the same distance may cause different damage according to ground conditions. Empirical ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) require adjustment to make them appropriate for site-specific scenarios. However, the process of making such adjustments remains a challenge. This work presents a holistic framework for the development of a peak ground acceleration (PGA) or spectral acceleration (SA) GMPE that is easily adjustable to different seismological conditions and does not suffer from the practical problems associated with adjustments in the response spectral domain.

  5. Use of regional climate model simulations as an input for hydrological models for the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akhtar, M.; Ahmad, N.; Booij, Martijn J.

    2009-01-01

    The most important climatological inputs required for the calibration and validation of hydrological models are temperature and precipitation that can be derived from observational records or alternatively from regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, meteorological station observations and

  6. Site evaluation approach for reforestations based on SVAT water balance modeling considering data scarcity and uncertainty analysis of model input parameters from geophysical data

    OpenAIRE

    Mannschatz, Theresa

    2015-01-01

    Extensive deforestations, particularly in the (sub)tropics, have led to intense soil degradation and erosion with concomitant reduction in soil fertility. Reforestations or plantations on those degraded sites may provide effective measures to mitigate further soil degradation and erosion, and can lead to improved soil quality. However, a change in land use from, e.g., grassland to forest may have a crucial impact on water balance. This may affect water availability even under humid tropical c...

  7. Regional Spectral Model simulations of the summertime regional climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ching-Teng Lee; Ming-Chin Wu; Shyh-Chin Chen

    2005-01-01

    The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) version 97 was used to investigate the regional summertime climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas for June-July-August of 1990 through 2000. The simulated sea-level-pressure and wind fields of RSM1 with 50-km grid space are similar to the reanalysis, but the strength of the...

  8. Modeling Aggregate Hourly Energy Consumption in a Regional Building Stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Kipping

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Sound estimates of future heat and electricity demand with high temporal and spatial resolution are needed for energy system planning, grid design, and evaluating demand-side management options and polices on regional and national levels. In this study, smart meter data on electricity consumption in buildings are combined with cross-sectional building information to model hourly electricity consumption within the household and service sectors on a regional basis in Norway. The same modeling approach is applied to model aggregate hourly district heat consumption in three different consumer groups located in Oslo. A comparison of modeled and metered hourly energy consumption shows that hourly variations and aggregate consumption per county and year are reproduced well by the models. However, for some smaller regions, modeled annual electricity consumption is over- or underestimated by more than 20%. Our results indicate that the presented method is useful for modeling the current and future hourly energy consumption of a regional building stock, but that larger and more detailed training datasets are required to improve the models, and more detailed building stock statistics on regional level are needed to generate useful estimates on aggregate regional energy consumption.

  9. Glistening-region model for multipath studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groves, Gordon W.; Chow, Winston C.

    1998-07-01

    The goal is to achieve a model of radar sea reflection with improved fidelity that is amenable to practical implementation. The geometry of reflection from a wavy surface is formulated. The sea surface is divided into two components: the smooth `chop' consisting of the longer wavelengths, and the `roughness' of the short wavelengths. Ordinary geometric reflection from the chop surface is broadened by the roughness. This same representation serves both for forward scatter and backscatter (sea clutter). The `Road-to-Happiness' approximation, in which the mean sea surface is assumed cylindrical, simplifies the reflection geometry for low-elevation targets. The effect of surface roughness is assumed to make the sea reflection coefficient depending on the `Deviation Angle' between the specular and the scattering directions. The `specular' direction is that into which energy would be reflected by a perfectly smooth facet. Assuming that the ocean waves are linear and random allows use of Gaussian statistics, greatly simplifying the formulation by allowing representation of the sea chop by three parameters. An approximation of `low waves' and retention of the sea-chop slope components only through second order provides further simplification. The simplifying assumptions make it possible to take the predicted 2D ocean wave spectrum into account in the calculation of sea-surface radar reflectivity, to provide algorithms for support of an operational system for dealing with target tracking in the presence of multipath. The product will be of use in simulated studies to evaluate different trade-offs in alternative tracking schemes, and will form the basis of a tactical system for ship defense against low flyers.

  10. Flow modelling of a newtonian fluid by two regions- the region of pure fluid and porous region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sampaio, R.; Gama, R.M.S. da

    1983-01-01

    A model of flow with two regions is presented using mixture theory. One region contains only pure fluid and the other a mixture of fluid and porous rigid solid. Compatibility conditons on the pure fluid-mixture interface are carefully discussed. The theory is used to solve a problem of a flow induced by pressure gradient and helicoidal motion of an impermeable cylinder on two rings one of pure fluid and another of mixture. (Author) [pt

  11. The regional climate model RegCM3 performances over several regions and climate regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, E.; Rauscher, S.; Gao, X.; Giorgi, F.; Im, E. S.; Mariotti, L.; Seth, A.; Sylla, M. B.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate models are more and more needed to provide high resolution regional climate information in climate impact studies. Water availability in a future scenario is the main request of policy makers for adaptation and mitigation purposes. However precipitation changes are unlikely to be as spatially coherent as temperature changes and they are closely related to the regional model itself. In addition model skill varies regionally. An example of several ICTP regional climate model (RegCM3) simulations is reported over China, Korea, Africa, Central and Southern America, Europe and Australia. Over China, Australia, and Korea the regional model improves the simulation compared to the driving GCM when compared with CRU observations. In China, for example, the higher resolution of the regional model inhibits the penetration of the monsoon precipitation front from the southern slope of the Himalaya onto the Tibetan Plateau. In Korea the nested domain simulation (20 km) shows an encouraging performance with regard to capturing extreme precipitation episodes and the finer spatial distribution reflects the detailed geography of the Korean Peninsula. Over South America, RegCM captures the annual cycle of precipitation over Northeast Brazil and the South American Monsoon region, although the monsoon onset occurs too early in the model. Precipitation over the Amazon is not well captured, with too little precipitation associated with weak easterlies and reduced moisture transport into the interior of the continent. RegCM simulates the annual cycle of precipitation over Central America and the Caribbean fairly well; in particular, the complex spatial distribution of the Mid-Summer Drought, a decrease in precipitation that occurs during the middle of the rainy season in July and August, is better captured by RegCM than by the GCM. In addition, RegCM simulates the strength and position of the Caribbean low level jet, a mesoscale feature related to precipitation anomalies

  12. Effective single scattering albedo estimation using regional climate model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tesfaye, M

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, by modifying the optical parameterization of Regional Climate model (RegCM), the authors have computed and compared the Effective Single-Scattering Albedo (ESSA) which is a representative of VIS spectral region. The arid, semi...

  13. Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution

    KAUST Repository

    Kalenderski, Stoitchko; Steyn, Douw G.

    2011-01-01

    formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate

  14. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Samoa

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at...

  15. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the island of Guam at...

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 3.5-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian island of Oahu at...

  17. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: CNMI

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern...

  18. Regional water resources management in the Andean region with numerical models and satellite remote sensing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menenti, M.; Mulders, C.W.B.

    1999-01-01

    This report describes the development and adaptation of distributed numerical simulation models of hydrological processes in complex watersheds typical of the Andean region. These distributed models take advantage of the synoptic capabilities of sensors on-board satellites and GIS procedures have

  19. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  20. Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution

    KAUST Repository

    Kalenderski, Stoitchko

    2011-03-17

    We develop a physically motivated statistical model for regional ozone air pollution by separating the ground-level pollutant concentration field into three components, namely: transport, local production and large-scale mean trend mostly dominated by emission rates. The model is novel in the field of environmental spatial statistics in that it is a combined deterministic-statistical model, which gives a new perspective to the modelling of air pollution. The model is presented in a Bayesian hierarchical formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate that the model vastly outperforms existing, simpler modelling approaches. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering different aspects of an air pollution problem as well as taking into account the physical bases that govern the processes of interest. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..

  1. Transitional region of phase transitions in nuclear models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotze, A A

    1988-01-01

    The phase transition in an exactly solvable nuclear model, the Lipkin model, is scrutinised, first using Hartree-Fock methods or the plain mean flield approximation, and then using projected wave functions. It turns out that the plain mean field is not reliable in the transitional region. Although the projection methods give better resutls in the transitional region, it leads to spurious singularities. While the energy of the projection before variation is slightly better than its projection after variation counterpart, the perfomance of the wave function is considerably worse in the transitional region. The model's wave function undergoes dramatic changes in the transitional region. The mechanism that brings about these changes is studied within a model Hamiltonian that can reproduce the Lipkin model mathematically. It turns out that the numerous exceptional points found in the transitional region, bring about the change of the ground state wave function. Exceptional points are associated with level crossings in the complex plane. These level crossings can be seen as level repulsions in the spectrum. Level repulsion and a sensitive dependence of the system on some external parameter are characteristics of chaotic behaviour. These two features are found in the transitional region of the Lipkin model. In order to study chaos, one has to resort to a statistical analysis. A measure of the chaotic behaviour of systems, the ..delta../sub 3/ statistic, is introduced. The results show that the Lipkin model is harmonic, even in the transitional region. For the Lipkin model the exceptional points are regularly distributed in the complex plane. In a total chaotic system the points would be randomly distributed.

  2. The transitional region of phase transitions in nuclear models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotze, A.A.

    1988-01-01

    The phase transition in an exactly solvable nuclear model, the Lipkin model, is scrutinised, first using Hartree-Fock methods or the plain mean flield approximation, and then using projected wave functions. It turns out that the plain mean field is not reliable in the transitional region. Although the projection methods give better resutls in the transitional region, it leads to spurious singularities. While the energy of the projection before variation is slightly better than its projection after variation counterpart, the perfomance of the wave function is considerably worse in the transitional region. The model's wave function undergoes dramatic changes in the transitional region. The mechanism that brings about these changes is studied within a model Hamiltonian that can reproduce the Lipkin model mathematically. It turns out that the numerous exceptional points found in the transitional region, bring about the change of the ground state wave function. Exceptional points are associated with level crossings in the complex plane. These level crossings can be seen as level repulsions in the spectrum. Level repulsion and a sensitive dependence of the system on some external parameter are characteristics of chaotic behaviour. These two features are found in the transitional region of the Lipkin model. In order to study chaos, one has to resort to a statistical analysis. A measure of the chaotic behaviour of systems, the Δ 3 statistic, is introduced. The results show that the Lipkin model is harmonic, even in the transitional region. For the Lipkin model the exceptional points are regularly distributed in the complex plane. In a total chaotic system the points would be randomly distributed

  3. Regional Scale/Regional Climate Model Development and Its Applications at Goddard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W.; Qian, J.; Jia, Y.; Wetzel, P.; Chou, M.-D.; Wang, Y.; Lynn, B.

    2000-01-01

    A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model (Penn State/NCAR MM5) with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America region.

  4. MODEL EVALUATION OF THE SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC CLUSTERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Чингис Дашидалаевич Дашицыренов

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article describes a model of evaluation of effectiveness of spatial development of a region. Main approaches and criteria to assess effectiveness of socio-economic development of a region based on use of regional economic cluster are identified.The author believes that clusterization allows to eliminate or localize mentioned above restrictions which are characteristic of specific activity of entities. Effect in this case can be measured by increase in productivity obtained from cluster’s resources use  in regard to specific form of enterprises’ existence.The article also focused on definition of idea of synergic effect and the model of effectiveness of clusters. Cluster integration’s essence is considered – it is pointed out that a new structure is formed, which has emergent characteristics.Thus, main approach to spatial socio-economic development of a region proposed by the author is diversification of organizational and economic forms into regional economic clusters.Proposed by the author model allows to assess effectiveness of clusterization for spatial socio-economic development of any region. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-10-14

  5. MODELING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ARCTIC REGION OF RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. N. Kikkas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes a model of six econometric equations, designed for the analysis of the sustainability of development in the Arctic region of the Russian Federation - Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. The article analyzes the spheres of human activity in the Chukchi Autonomous District: social, industrial, natural resources. Each sphere is estimated indicators. The theoretical views of various researchers on sustainable development and defi nes the concept of sustainable development of the spheres of human activity in the Arctic region. Under the sustainable development of the Arctic region of space refers to such changes in the indices of spheres of human activity in the region, which increase the potential for human development. The numerical value of the potential of human development is estimated Human Development Index. The article describes the methodological principles of constructing a model of six equations econometric analysis of the sustainable development of the Arctic region. Each of the six equations presented in the form of ADL-model, because it allows us to estimate the dependence of ADL values of the spheres of human activity in the region from the current and past values of the series of other indicators. Selected endogenous and exogenous variables for the model. We discuss the algorithm for fi nding the model parameters. On the basis of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug are six coeffi cients of econometric equations. The analysis of the results of the decision model. Methodological principles and results of the decision model can be used to develop strategies for sustainable development of the municipality, a separate Arctic, or a combination of all the Arctic regions of Russia.

  6. Parameters of oscillation generation regions in open star cluster models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danilov, V. M.; Putkov, S. I.

    2017-07-01

    We determine the masses and radii of central regions of open star cluster (OCL) models with small or zero entropy production and estimate the masses of oscillation generation regions in clustermodels based on the data of the phase-space coordinates of stars. The radii of such regions are close to the core radii of the OCL models. We develop a new method for estimating the total OCL masses based on the cluster core mass, the cluster and cluster core radii, and radial distribution of stars. This method yields estimates of dynamical masses of Pleiades, Praesepe, and M67, which agree well with the estimates of the total masses of the corresponding clusters based on proper motions and spectroscopic data for cluster stars.We construct the spectra and dispersion curves of the oscillations of the field of azimuthal velocities v φ in OCL models. Weak, low-amplitude unstable oscillations of v φ develop in cluster models near the cluster core boundary, and weak damped oscillations of v φ often develop at frequencies close to the frequencies of more powerful oscillations, which may reduce the non-stationarity degree in OCL models. We determine the number and parameters of such oscillations near the cores boundaries of cluster models. Such oscillations points to the possible role that gradient instability near the core of cluster models plays in the decrease of the mass of the oscillation generation regions and production of entropy in the cores of OCL models with massive extended cores.

  7. Markov Chain Models for Stochastic Behavior in Resonance Overlap Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Morgan; Quillen, Alice

    2018-01-01

    We aim to predict lifetimes of particles in chaotic zoneswhere resonances overlap. A continuous-time Markov chain model isconstructed using mean motion resonance libration timescales toestimate transition times between resonances. The model is applied todiffusion in the co-rotation region of a planet. For particles begunat low eccentricity, the model is effective for early diffusion, butnot at later time when particles experience close encounters to the planet.

  8. Fused cerebral organoids model interactions between brain regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagley, Joshua A; Reumann, Daniel; Bian, Shan; Lévi-Strauss, Julie; Knoblich, Juergen A

    2017-07-01

    Human brain development involves complex interactions between different regions, including long-distance neuronal migration or formation of major axonal tracts. Different brain regions can be cultured in vitro within 3D cerebral organoids, but the random arrangement of regional identities limits the reliable analysis of complex phenotypes. Here, we describe a coculture method combining brain regions of choice within one organoid tissue. By fusing organoids of dorsal and ventral forebrain identities, we generate a dorsal-ventral axis. Using fluorescent reporters, we demonstrate CXCR4-dependent GABAergic interneuron migration from ventral to dorsal forebrain and describe methodology for time-lapse imaging of human interneuron migration. Our results demonstrate that cerebral organoid fusion cultures can model complex interactions between different brain regions. Combined with reprogramming technology, fusions should offer researchers the possibility to analyze complex neurodevelopmental defects using cells from neurological disease patients and to test potential therapeutic compounds.

  9. REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING STUDY FOR THE CARPATHIAN REGION USING REGCM4 EXPERIMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PIECZKA I.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The newest model version of RegCM is adapted with the ultimate aim of providing climate projection for the Carpathian region with 10 km horizontal resolution. For this purpose, first, coarse resolution reanalysis data and global climate model outputs are used to drive 50 km resolution model experiments, from which the outputs are used to provide necessary boundary conditions for the fine scale model runs. Besides the historical runs (for the period 1981-2010, RCP4.5 scenario is also analyzed in this paper for the 21st century. These experiments are essential since they form the basis of national climate and adaptation strategies by providing detailed regional scale climatic projections and enabling specific impact studies for various sectors.

  10. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.

    2009-05-01

    Available observations are localized and widely separated in both space and time, so we depend heavily on models to characterize, understand, and predict carbon fluxes at regional and global scales. The results from each model differ because they use different approaches (forward vs. inverse), modeling strategies (detailed process, statistical, observation based), process representation, boundary conditions, initial conditions, and driver data. To investigate these differences we conducted a model-model and model-data comparison using available forward ecosystem model and atmospheric inverse output, along with regional scale inventory data. Forward or "bottom-up" models typically estimate carbon fluxes through a set of physiological relationships, and are based on our current mechanistic understanding of how carbon is exchanged within ecosystems. Inverse or "top-down" analyses use measured atmospheric concentrations of CO2, coupled with an atmospheric transport model to infer surface flux distributions. Although bottom-up models do fairly well at reproducing measured fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem exchange) at a given location, they vary considerably in their estimates of carbon flux over regional or continental scales, suggesting difficulty in scaling mechanistic relationships to large areas and/or timescales. Conversely, top-down inverse models predict fluxes that are quantitatively consistent with atmospheric measurements, suggesting that they are capturing large scale variability in flux quite well, but offer limited insights into the processes controlling this variability and how fluxes vary at fine spatial scales. The analyses focused on identifying and quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes among the models; quantifying across-model variability, as well as comparing simulated or estimated surface fluxes and biomass to observed values at regional to continental scales for the period 2000-2005. The analysis focused on the following three

  11. NON-LINEAR MODELING OF THE RHIC INTERACTION REGIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    TOMAS, R.; FISCHER, W.; JAIN, A.; LUO, Y.; PILAT, F.

    2004-01-01

    For RHIC's collision lattices the dominant sources of transverse non-linearities are located in the interaction regions. The field quality is available for most of the magnets in the interaction regions from the magnetic measurements, or from extrapolations of these measurements. We discuss the implementation of these measurements in the MADX models of the Blue and the Yellow rings and their impact on beam stability

  12. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  13. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  14. The Development Model Electronic Commerce of Regional Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Jun; Cai, Lecai; Li, Hongchan

    With the developing of the agricultural information, it is inevitable trend of the development of agricultural electronic commercial affairs. On the basis of existing study on the development application model of e-commerce, combined with the character of the agricultural information, compared with the developing model from the theory and reality, a new development model electronic commerce of regional agriculture base on the government is put up, and such key issues as problems of the security applications, payment mode, sharing mechanisms, and legal protection are analyzed, etc. The among coordination mechanism of the region is discussed on, it is significance for regulating the development of agricultural e-commerce and promoting the regional economical development.

  15. MODELS OF TOURIST DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borma Afrodita

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Third year PhD candidate at the University of Oradea, under the guidance of Professor Mrs. Alina Bădulescu in the doctoral research project entitled: "Doctoral studies and Ph.D. candidates for competitive research on a knowledge based society", a co-financed project by the European Social Fund through the Sectoral Operational Program for Human Resources Development 2007 - 2013, Priority Axis 1. "Education and training in support for growth and development of a knowledge based society" I chose to present this subject in order to demonstrate the connection that exists between tourism and regional development. Having as research topic "Tourism and development in the Euro regional context” I felt it would be appropriate to devote a subchapter in presenting the impact of tourism in regional development. Thus I have analysed a number of specialised papers found at national and international level in order to achieve a synthesis on the approached topic. Authors such as Williams and Shaw (1991, Sharma (2004, Keskin and Cansiz (2010 were concerned with presenting the positive aspects of tourism in regional development. Condes (2004 presents on one hand the secrets regarding success in matter of tourist development, and on the other side he presents the possible risks that follow the development of tourism in a country / region (Condes 2004. Following the gathered information we found that indeed tourism plays an important role in regional development. The used research methodology consisted in using specialised literature in order to identify some models that illustrate the potential success of tourism in regional development. The space-temporal development model of tourism proposed by Opperman (1993, although it was developed at national level represents a useful tool in illustrating the potential success of tourism in regional development. Miossec's model (Sharma 2004:300 describes the structural evolution of touristic regions in

  16. Long-wave forcing for regional atmospheric modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Storch, H. von; Langenberg, H.; Feser, F. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    1999-07-01

    A new method, named 'spectral nudging', of linking a regional model to the driving large-scale model simulated or analyzed by a global model is proposed and tested. Spectral nudging is based on the idea that regional-scale climate statistics are conditioned by the interplay between continental-scale atmospheric conditions and such regional features as marginal seas and mountain ranges. Following this 'downscaling' idea, the regional model is forced to satisfy not only boundary conditions, possibly in a boundary sponge region, but also large-scale flow conditions inside the integration area. We demonstrate that spectral nudging succeeds in keeping the simulated state close to the driving state at large scales, while generating smaller-scale features. We also show that the standard boundary forcing technique in current use allows the regional model to develop internal states conflicting with the large-scale state. It is concluded that spectral nudging may be seen as a suboptimal and indirect data assimilation technique. (orig.) [German] Eine neue Methode, genannt 'spektrales nudging', ein Regionalmodell an das durch ein Globalmodell simulierte grossskalige Antriebsfeld zu koppeln, wird vorgestellt und getestet. Das spektrale nudging basiert auf der Annahme, dass regionale Klimastatistik durch die Wechselwirkung zwischen dem kontinental-skaligen atmosphaerischen Zustand und regionalen Gegebenheiten, wie kleinere Seen und Gebirgszuege, bestimmt wird. Demnach muss das Regionalmodell nicht nur die Randbedingungen erfuellen, sondern auch die grossskaligen Zustaende innerhalb des Integrationsgebietes wiedergeben koennen. Wir zeigen, dass durch das spektrale nudging der grossskalige modellierte Zustand nahe an dem des Antriebsfeldes liegt, ohne die Modellierung regionaler Phaenomene zu beeintraechtigen. Ausserdem zeigen wir, dass das Regionalmodell durch die zur Zeit benutzte Antriebstechnik ueber den Modellrand interne Felder produzieren kann

  17. Development of three dimensional ocean current model for coastal region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Takuya

    1999-12-01

    In order to study the migration behavior of radionuclides released into a coastal region around Japan, Princeton Ocean Model (POM) was introduced. This three-dimensional ocean current model was modified to be applied for oceanic simulations around Japan. This report describes the governing equations, numerical methods and model improvements. In addition, database system which is utilized for calculations and visualization system for graphical outputs are also described. Model simulation was carried out at off the area of Shimokita. Aomori-ken, Japan to investigate the effects of the boundary conditions on simulated results. (author)

  18. Evaluation of a regional chemistry transport model using a newly developed regional OMI NO2 retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhlmann, G.; Lam, Y. F.; Cheung, H. M.; Hartl, A.; Fung, J. C. H.; Chan, P. W.; Wenig, M. O.

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, we evaluate a high-resolution chemistry transport model (CTM) (3 km x 3 km spatial resolution) with the new Hong Kong (HK) NO2 retrieval developed for the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on-board the Aura satellite. The three-dimensional atmospheric chemistry was modelled in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China by the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system from October 2006 to January 2007. In the HK NO2 retrieval, tropospheric air mass factors (AMF) were recalculated using high-resolution ancillary parameters of surface reflectance, NO2 profile shapes and aerosol profiles of which the latter two were taken from the CMAQ simulation. We also tested four different aerosol parametrizations. Ground level measurements by the PRD Regional Air Quality Monitoring (RAQM) network were used as additional independent measurements. The HK NO2 retrieval increases the NO2 vertical column densities (VCD) by (+31 ± 38) %, when compared to NASA's standard product (SP2), and reduces the mean bias (MB) between satellite and ground measurements by 26 percentage points from -41 to -15 %. The correlation coefficient r is low for both satellite datasets (r = 0.35) due to the high spatial variability of NO2 concentrations. The correlation between CMAQ and the RAQM network is low (r ≈ 0.3) and the model underestimates the NO2 concentrations in the north-western model domain (Foshan and Guangzhou). We compared the CMAQ NO2 time series of the two main plumes with our regional OMI NO2 product. The model overestimates the NO2 VCDs by about 15 % in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, while the correlation coefficient is satisfactory (r = 0.56). In Foshan and Guangzhou, the correlation is low (r = 0.37) and the model underestimates the VCDs strongly (MB = -40 %). In addition, we estimated that the OMI VCDs are also underestimated by about 10 to 20 % in Foshan and Guangzhou because of the influence of the model parameters on the AMF. In this study

  19. Model-based automatic generation of grasping regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloss, David A.

    1993-01-01

    The problem of automatically generating stable regions for a robotic end effector on a target object, given a model of the end effector and the object is discussed. In order to generate grasping regions, an initial valid grasp transformation from the end effector to the object is obtained based on form closure requirements, and appropriate rotational and translational symmetries are associated with that transformation in order to construct a valid, continuous grasping region. The main result of this algorithm is a list of specific, valid grasp transformations of the end effector to the target object, and the appropriate combinations of translational and rotational symmetries associated with each specific transformation in order to produce a continuous grasp region.

  20. SESAME as a Model Project for Other Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winick, Herman

    2013-03-01

    UNESCO became the umbrella organization for SESAME at its Executive Board 164th session, May 2002. The following comments about SESAME were made by this board: ``a quintessential UNESCO project combining capacity building with vital peace-building through science'' and ``a model project for other regions.'' Now that SESAME is well underway, other regions (e.g.; Africa and Central Asia) should be made aware of this progress, and they should be welcomed to join SESAME as a first step in developing similar projects in their region. Students and scientists from other regions should be encouraged to attend SESAME Users' meeting, schools, workshops, etc. where they can learn about synchrotron radiation sources, beamlines, and science. They should be invited to join SESAME scientists in designing and commissioning accelerators and beamlines, gaining relevant experience for their own projects and helping SESAME in the process. Work supported by DOE Office of Basic Energy Sciences

  1. Crustal structure and tectonic model of the Arctic region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrov, Oleg; Morozov, Andrey; Shokalsky, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    We present a new model of the crustal and tectonic structure of the Arctic region north of 60° N latitude, constrained as a part of the international Atlas of Geological Maps of the Circumpolar Arctic under the aegis of the Commission for the Geological Map of the World. The region is largely...... formed by (i) Archean-Paleoproterozoic shields and platforms, (ii) orogenic belts of the Neoproterozoic to the Late Mesozoic ages overlain by platform and basin sediments, (iii) Cenozoic rift structures formed in part as a consequence of seafloor spreading in the North East Atlantic Ocean...... and thickness of the sedimentary cover and presents tectonic regionalization based on 18 major crustal types (oceanic, transitional, and continental) recognized in the Arctic. A 7600. km-long crustal geotransect across the region illustrates the details of its crustal and tectonic structure. We discuss...

  2. On global and regional spectral evaluation of global geopotential models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ustun, A; Abbak, R A

    2010-01-01

    Spectral evaluation of global geopotential models (GGMs) is necessary to recognize the behaviour of gravity signal and its error recorded in spherical harmonic coefficients and associated standard deviations. Results put forward in this wise explain the whole contribution of gravity data in different kinds that represent various sections of the gravity spectrum. This method is more informative than accuracy assessment methods, which use external data such as GPS-levelling. Comparative spectral evaluation for more than one model can be performed both in global and local sense using many spectral tools. The number of GGMs has grown with the increasing number of data collected by the dedicated satellite gravity missions, CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE. This fact makes it necessary to measure the differences between models and to monitor the improvements in the gravity field recovery. In this paper, some of the satellite-only and combined models are examined in different scales, globally and regionally, in order to observe the advances in the modelling of GGMs and their strengths at various expansion degrees for geodetic and geophysical applications. The validation of the published errors of model coefficients is a part of this evaluation. All spectral tools explicitly reveal the superiority of the GRACE-based models when compared against the models that comprise the conventional satellite tracking data. The disagreement between models is large in local/regional areas if data sets are different, as seen from the example of the Turkish territory

  3. Modelling the regional effects of climate change on air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giorgi, F.; Meleux, F.

    2007-01-01

    The life cycle of pollutants is affected by chemical as well as meteorological factors, such as wind, temperature, precipitation, solar radiation. Therefore, climatic changes induced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases may be expected to have significant effects on air quality. Because of the spatial variability of the pollutant emissions and climate-change signals, these effects are particularly relevant at the regional to local scales. This paper first briefly reviews modelling tools and methodologies used to study regional climate-change impacts on air quality. Patterns of regional precipitation, temperature, and sea-level changes emerging from the latest set of general circulation model projections are then discussed. Finally, the specific case of climate-change effects on summer ozone concentrations over Europe is presented to illustrate the potential impacts of climate change on pollutant amounts. It is concluded that climate change is an important factor that needs to be taken into account when designing future pollution-reduction policies. (authors)

  4. Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Welsch, M.

    2015-01-01

    KTH Royal Institute of Technology was founded in 1827 and it is the largest technical university in Sweden with five campuses and Around 15,000 students. KTH-dESA combines an outstanding knowledge in the field of energy systems analysis. This is demonstrated by the successful collaborations with many (UN) organizations. Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa include Assessing renewable energy potentials; Analysing investment strategies; ) Assessing climate resilience; Comparing electrification options; Providing web-based decision support; and Quantifying energy access. It is conclude that Strategies required to ensure a robust and flexible energy system (-> no-regret choices); Capacity investments should be in line with national & regional strategies; Climate change important to consider, as it may strongly influence the energy flows in a region; Long-term models can help identify robust energy investment strategies and pathways that Can help assess future markets and profitability of individual projects

  5. Tidal simulation using regional ocean modeling systems (ROMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaochun; Chao, Yi; Li, Zhijin; Dong, Changming; Farrara, John; McWilliams, James C.; Shum, C. K.; Wang, Yu; Matsumoto, Koji; Rosenfeld, Leslie K.; hide

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of our research is to test the capability of ROMS in simulating tides. The research also serves as a necessary exercise to implement tides in an operational ocean forecasting system. In this paper, we emphasize the validation of the model tide simulation. The characteristics and energetics of tides of the region will be reported in separate publications.

  6. Impact of surface waves in a Regional Climate Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rutgersson, Anna; Sætra, Oyvind; Semedo, Alvaro

    2010-01-01

    A coupled regional atmosphere-wave model system is developed with the purpose of investigating the impact of climate changes on the wave field, as well as feed-back effects of the wave field on the atmospheric parameters. This study focuses on the effects of introducing a two-way atmosphere...

  7. VCE Model of Community, Local, Regional Food Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Niewolny, Kim

    2016-01-01

    This document is a chart illustrating the Virginia Cooperative Extension model for food systems at the community, local and regional level. This chart shows an interrelationship between basic and applied research, leveraging of resources and opportunities, communication and marketing, assessment, evaluation and impact, knowledge, skills, and social change, facilitation of partnerships, and also teaching.

  8. Modeling of Regional Climate over Red Sea and Arabian Peninsula

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2011-04-09

    Observations, re-analyses, and climate model simulations show strong surface temperature trends in Middle East and Arabian Peninsula in the last 30 years. Trends are especially pronounced in summer exceeding +1K/decade. However, some regions, e.g., the So

  9. PDS-Modelling and Regional Bayesian Estimation of Extreme Rainfalls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan; Harremoës, Poul

    1994-01-01

    rainfalls. The method is applied to two variables: the total precipitation depth and the maximum 10-minute rain intensity of individual storms. On the basis of the atsite modelling a regional analysis is carried out. It is shown that the previous assumption of spatial homogeneity of extreme rainfalls...

  10. A Schumpeterian Model of Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and Regional Economic Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

    2012-01-01

    The authors provide the first theoretical analysis of a one-sector, discrete-time, Schumpeterian model of growth in a regional economy in which consumers are risk neutral, there is no population growth, monopolistic entrepreneurs produce intermediate goods, and a single consumption good is produced

  11. Regional modelling of anthropogenic sulphur in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engardt, M.; Leong, C. P.

    A co-operative research project between the Malaysian Meteorological Service (MMS) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) focussing on the usage of an atmospheric transport and chemistry model, has just been initiated. Here, we describe the main features of the dispersion model and discuss a first set of calculations in light of available measurements of sulphuric species in Southeast Asia. According to our results, anthropogenic sulphur concentrations and depositions are particularly high near the large cities of the region, around a metal smelter in the southern Philippines, and in a region extending from northern Vietnam into southeastern China. These areas coincide with the high-emissions regions of Southeast Asia and we tentatively conclude that regional transport of acidifying species is not as far-reaching as in the mid-latitudes. From our calculations, and from supporting measurements we conclude that most of rural Southeast Asia is not yet severely affected by anthropogenic sulphur, but given the rapid rate of economical development in this region the situation may deteriorate quickly. Areas that are particularly at risk include the large cities, northern Vietnam, most of central Thailand, most of peninsular Malaysia, eastern Sumatra and parts of Java, all of which receive total-sulphur depositions in excess of 0.5 g S m -2 yr -1. Our model simulates sulphate in precipitation in accordance with measurements, but it has a tendency to overestimate atmospheric SO 2. It remains to be investigated whether this is a problem in the model formulation or a result of unrepresentative sampling. An immediate continuation of this study should be performed with higher spatial resolution than the currently used 100×100 km 2. Other imperfections in this model study, which should be addressed in future work, include parameterised vertical transport in deep convective clouds, the influence of natural emissions (primarily from volcanoes) on the

  12. Scientist-Practitioner Engagement to Inform Regional Hydroclimate Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Jagannathan, K. A.; Ullrich, P. A.

    2017-12-01

    Water mangers face significant challenges in planning for the coming decades as previously stationary aspects of the regional hydroclimate shift in response to global climate change. Providing scientific insights that enable appropriate use of regional hydroclimate projections for planning is a non-trivial problem. The system of data, models, and methods used to produce regional hydroclimate projections is subject to multiple interacting uncertainties and biases, including uncertainties that arise from general circulation models, re-analysis data products, regional climate models, hydrologic models, and statistical downscaling methods. Moreover, many components of this system were not designed with the information needs of water managers in mind. To address this problem and provide actionable insights into the sources of uncertainty present in regional hydroclimate data products, Project Hyperion has undertaken a stakeholder engagement process in four case study water basins across the US. Teams of water managers and scientists are interacting in a structured manner to identify decision-relevant metrics of model performance. These metrics are in turn being used to drive scientific investigations to uncover the sources of uncertainty in these quantities. Thus far, we have found that identification of climate phenomena of interest to stakeholders is relatively easy, but translating these into specific quantifiable metrics and prioritizing metrics is more challenging. Iterative feedback among scientists and stakeholders has proven critical in resolving these challenges, as has the roles played by boundary spanners who understand and can speak to the perspectives of multiple professional communities. Here we describe the structured format of our engagement process and the lessons learned so far, as we aim to improve the decision-relevance of hydroclimate projections through a collaborative process.

  13. Modeling of hydrological processes in arid agricultural regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang LI,Xiaomin MAO,Shaozhong KANG,David A. BARRY

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding of hydrological processes, including consideration of interactions between vegetation growth and water transfer in the root zone, underpins efficient use of water resources in arid-zone agriculture. Water transfers take place in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum, and include groundwater dynamics, unsaturated zone flow, evaporation/transpiration from vegetated/bare soil and surface water, agricultural canal/surface water flow and seepage, and well pumping. Models can be categorized into three classes: (1 regional distributed hydrological models with various land uses, (2 groundwater-soil-plant-atmosphere continuum models that neglect lateral water fluxes, and (3 coupled models with groundwater flow and unsaturated zone water dynamics. This review highlights, in addition, future research challenges in modeling arid-zone agricultural systems, e.g., to effectively assimilate data from remote sensing, and to fully reflect climate change effects at various model scales.

  14. New Ground Motion Prediction Models for Caucasus Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorjiashvili, N.

    2012-12-01

    The Caucasus is a region of numerous natural hazards and ensuing disasters. Analysis of the losses due to past disasters indicates the those most catastrophic in the region have historically been due to strong earthquakes. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. The most commonly used parameter for attenuation relation is peak ground acceleration because this parameter gives useful information for Seismic Hazard Assessment. Because of this, many peak ground acceleration attenuation relations have been developed by different authors. Besides, a few attenuation relations were developed for Caucasus region: Ambraseys et al. (1996,2005) which were based on entire European region and they were not focused locally on Caucasus Region; Smit et.al. (2000) that was based on a small amount of acceleration data that really is not enough. Since 2003 construction of Georgian Digital Seismic Network has started with the help of number of International organizations, Projects and Private companies. The works conducted involved scientific as well as organizational activities: Resolving technical problems concerning communication and data transmission. Thus, today we have a possibility to get real time data and make scientific research based on digital seismic data. Generally, ground motion and damage are influenced by the magnitude of the earthquake, the distance from the seismic source to site, the local ground conditions and the characteristics of buildings. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. This is the reason why this topic is emphasized in this study. In this study new GMP models are obtained based on new data from Georgian seismic network and also from neighboring countries. Estimation of models are obtained by classical, statistical way, regression analysis. Also site ground conditions are considered because the same earthquake recorded at the same distance may cause different damage

  15. Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jens H.; Carter, Timothy R.; Rummukainen, Markku

    2007-01-01

    This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research articles documenting co-ordinated work carried out within a 3-year European Union project 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects' (PRUDENCE). The main objective...... of the PRUDENCE project was to provide high resolution climate change scenarios for Europe at the end of the twenty-first century by means of dynamical downscaling (regional climate modelling) of global climate simulations. The first part of the issue comprises seven overarching PRUDENCE papers on: (1) the design...... of the model simulations and analyses of climate model performance, (2 and 3) evaluation and intercomparison of simulated climate changes, (4 and 5) specialised analyses of impacts on water resources and on other sectors including agriculture, ecosystems, energy, and transport, (6) investigation of extreme...

  16. Modeling Urban Spatial Growth in Mountainous Regions of Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoping Huang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The scale and speed of urbanization in the mountainous regions of western China have received little attention from researchers. These cities are facing rapid population growth and severe environmental degradation. This study analyzed historical urban growth trends in this mountainous region to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth pattern and the mountainous topography. Three major factors—slope, accessibility, and land use type—were studied in light of their relationships with urban spatial growth. With the analysis of historical data as the basis, a conceptual urban spatial growth model was devised. In this model, slope, accessibility, and land use type together create resistance to urban growth, while accessibility controls the sequence of urban development. The model was tested and evaluated using historical data. It serves as a potential tool for planners to envision and assess future urban growth scenarios and their potential environmental impacts to make informed decisions.

  17. Modeling of air currents in the Gulf Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, T.J.; Ellis, J.S.; Foster, C.S.; Foster, K.T.; Baskett, R.L.; Nasstrom, J.S.; Schalk, W.W.

    1992-01-01

    The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability modeled the wind flow in the Gulf Region in order to make projections of the Kuwait oil fires pollution dispersion. Extensive meteorological models incorporating explicit terrain influences to the flow fields were routinely employed through a six month international assessment support effort organized by the World Meteorological Organization and US scientific research agencies. Results show generally close agreement with visible imagery of the smoke plumes as detected by meteorological satellites. However, there are some examples of significant disagreement or failure of the meteorological models. These failures are most likely directly linked to missing or unavailable weather observations

  18. Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.

    1979-10-01

    This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

  19. Rethinking the Psychogenic Model of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome: Somatoform Disorders and Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Renee J.; Chopra, Pradeep; Richardi, Toni

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Explaining the etiology of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) from the psychogenic model is exceedingly unsophisticated, because neurocognitive deficits, neuroanatomical abnormalities, and distortions in cognitive mapping are features of CRPS pathology. More importantly, many people who have developed CRPS have no history of mental illness. The psychogenic model offers comfort to physicians and mental health practitioners (MHPs) who have difficulty understanding pain maintained by newly uncovered neuro inflammatory processes. With increased education about CRPS through a biopsychosocial perspective, both physicians and MHPs can better diagnose, treat, and manage CRPS symptomatology. PMID:24223338

  20. Modelling non-hydrostatic processes in sill regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, A.; Xing, J.; Davies, A.; Berntsen, J.

    2007-12-01

    We use a non-hydrostatic model to compute tidally induced flow and mixing in the region of bottom topography representing the sill at the entrance to Loch Etive (Scotland). This site is chosen since detailed measurements were recently made there. With non-hydrostatic dynamics in the model our results showed that the model could reproduce the observed flow characteristics, e.g., hydraulic transition, flow separation and internal waves. However, when calculations were performed using the model in the hydrostatic form, significant artificial convective mixing occurred. This influenced the computed temperature and flow field. We will discuss in detail the effects of non-hydrostatic dynamics on flow over the sill, especially investigate non-linear and non-hydrostatic contributions to modelled internal waves and internal wave energy fluxes.

  1. Evaluation of an ensemble of Arctic regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rinke, A.; Dethloff, K.; Cassano, J. J.

    2006-01-01

    Simulations of eight different regional climate models (RCMs) have been performed for the period September 1997-September 1998, which coincides with the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project period. Each of the models employed approximately the same domain covering the western......, temperature, cloud cover, and long-/shortwave downward radiation between the individual model simulations are investigated. With this work, we quantify the scatter among the models and therefore the magnitude of disagreement and unreliability of current Arctic RCM simulations. Even with the relatively...... constrained experimental design we notice a considerable scatter among the different RCMs. We found the largest across-model scatter in the 2 m temperature over land, in the surface radiation fluxes, and in the cloud cover which implies a reduced confidence level for these variables....

  2. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    The purpose of the project was to conduct model simulations for past and future climate change with respect to the proposed Yucca Mtn. repository. The authors report on three main topics, one of which is boundary conditions for paleo-hindcast studies. These conditions are necessary for the conduction of three to four model simulations. The boundary conditions have been prepared for future runs. The second topic is (a) comparing the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with observations and other GCMs; and (b) development of a better precipitation data base for the Yucca Mtn. region for comparisons with models. These tasks have been completed. The third topic is preliminary assessments of future climate change. Energy balance model (EBM) simulations suggest that the greenhouse effect will likely dominate climate change at Yucca Mtn. for the next 10,000 years. The EBM study should improve rational choice of GCM CO{sub 2} scenarios for future climate change.

  3. Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanvyve, Emilie; Ypersele, Jean-Pascal van [Universite catholique de Louvain, Institut d' astronomie et de geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Hall, Nicholas [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales/Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales, Toulouse Cedex 9 (France); Messager, Christophe [University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science, Environment, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds (United Kingdom); Leroux, Stephanie [Universite Joseph Fourier, Laboratoire d' etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, BP53, Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)

    2008-02-15

    Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales. (orig.)

  4. BWR regional instability model and verification on ringhals-1 test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hotta, Akitoshi; Suzawa, Yojiro

    1996-01-01

    Regional instability is known as one type of the coupled neutronic-thermohydraulic phenomena of boiling water reactors (BWRs), where the thermohydraulic density wave propagation mechanism is predominant. Historically, it has been simulated by the three-dimensional time domain code in spite of its significant computing time. On the other hand, there have been proposals to apply the frequency domain models in regional instability considering the subcriticality of the higher neutronic mode. However, their application still remains in corewide instability mainly because of the lack of more detailed methodological and empirical studies. In this study, the current version of the frequency domain model was extended and verified based on actual core regional instability measurement data. The mathematical model LAPUR, the well-known frequency domain stability code, was reviewed from the standpoint of pure thermohydraulics and neutronic-thermohydraulic interaction mechanisms. Based on the ex-core loop test data, the original LAPUR mixed friction and local pressure loss model was modified, taking into account the different dynamic behavior of these two pressure-loss mechanisms. The perturbation term of the two-phase friction multiplier, which is the sum of the derivative of void fraction and subcool enthalpy, was adjusted theoretically. The adequacy of the instability evaluation system was verified based on the Ringhals unit 1 test data, which were supplied to participants of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency BWR Stability Benchmark Project

  5. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  6. Dispersive processes in models of regional radionuclide migration. Technical memorandum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evenson, D.E.; Dettinger, M.D.

    1980-05-01

    Three broad areas of concern in the development of aquifer scale transport models will be local scale diffusion and dispersion processes, regional scale dispersion processes, and numerical problems associated with the advection-dispersion equation. Local scale dispersion processes are fairly well understood and accessible to observation. These processes will generally be dominated in large scale systems by regional processes, or macro-dispersion. Macro-dispersion is primarily the result of large scale heterogeneities in aquifer properties. In addition, the effects of many modeling approximations are often included in the process. Because difficulties arise in parameterization of this large scale phenomenon, parameterization should be based on field measurements made at the same scale as the transport process of interest or else partially circumvented through the application of a probabilistic advection model. Other problems associated with numerical transport models include difficulties with conservation of mass, stability, numerical dissipation, overshoot, flexibility, and efficiency. We recommend the random-walk model formulation for Lawrence Livermore Laboratory's purposes as the most flexible, accurate and relatively efficient modeling approach that overcomes these difficulties

  7. Freight planning and regional cooperation in the Piedmont Atlantic megaregion : a regional models of cooperation peer exchange summary report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-08

    This report highlights key themes identified at the Freight Planning and Regional Cooperation in the Piedmont Atlantic Megaregion Peer Exchange held on January 31, 2017 and February 1, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. The Regional Models of Cooperatio...

  8. GIS modelling of solar potential in Toplica region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valjarević Aleksandar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we investigated possible potential solar area on Toplica region based on GIS (Geographical Information system and using a special kriging method with the help of open sources GIS software Quantum GIS. This kriging method is very special to vectorized and calculated the small area. The statistical approach calculated between datasets of three meteorological stations (Niš, Prokuplje, Kuršumlija. Data using of insolation from that meteorological stations from the period of (1953-2013 is useful for a solution to calculating solar potential. The also used parameter is hypsometry of relief of the whole area of Toplica region. Area of Toplica region is 2.231 km2 with a population of 90600 citizens. Divided into fourth municipalities (Prokuplje, Žitoradja, Black, Kuršumlija. The GIS modeling indicates that ideal areas for solar development are located the potential places in Toplica region. Only 13.6 km2 of the head model scores that were in the 90-100% range. However, given the statewide high insolation values with minimal variance, solar projects may be better suited for small-scale residential or commercial projects.

  9. Applying Multimodel Ensemble from Regional Climate Models for Improving Runoff Projections on Semiarid Regions of Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Galiano, S. G.; Olmos, P.; Giraldo Osorio, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    In the Mediterranean area, significant changes on temperature and precipitation are expected throughout the century. These trends could exacerbate the existing conditions in regions already vulnerable to climatic variability, reducing the water availability. Improving knowledge about plausible impacts of climate change on water cycle processes at basin scale, is an important step for building adaptive capacity to the impacts in this region, where severe water shortages are expected for the next decades. RCMs ensemble in combination with distributed hydrological models with few parameters, constitutes a valid and robust methodology to increase the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. For reaching this objective, a novel methodology for building Regional Climate Models (RCMs) ensembles of meteorological variables (rainfall an temperatures), was applied. RCMs ensembles are justified for increasing the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. The evaluation of RCMs goodness-of-fit to build the ensemble is based on empirical probability density functions (PDF) extracted from both RCMs dataset and a highly resolution gridded observational dataset, for the time period 1961-1990. The applied method is considering the seasonal and annual variability of the rainfall and temperatures. The RCMs ensembles constitute the input to a distributed hydrological model at basin scale, for assessing the runoff projections. The selected hydrological model is presenting few parameters in order to reduce the uncertainties involved. The study basin corresponds to a head basin of Segura River Basin, located in the South East of Spain. The impacts on runoff and its trend from observational dataset and climate projections, were assessed. Considering the control period 1961-1990, plausible significant decreases in runoff for the time period 2021-2050, were identified.

  10. Modeling Regional Seismic Waves from Underground Nuclear Explosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-05-15

    source outside the basin, small solid box beneath Ama. Little waveform distortion is observed along the path towsrds Pasadena (upper four trames) while...effects not accounted for in the wed and analytical solutions were derived for soluble interpretations given (Nuttli 1973, 1978, 1981; Herman & special...in a trnition region of COUPLING lengh L. The hybrid method used in the present study allows the the layering. Several types of solutions for models

  11. Efficient image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sekeh, M. A.; Maarof, M. A.; Rohani, M. F.; Mahdian, Babak

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 1 (2013), s. 73-84 ISSN 1742-2876 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Image forensic * Copy–paste forgery * Local block matching Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.986, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/ZOI/mahdian-efficient image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering.pdf

  12. Multisite bias correction of precipitation data from regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hnilica, Jan; Hanel, M.; Puš, V.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 6 (2017), s. 2934-2946 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA16-05665S Grant - others:Grantová agentura ČR - GA ČR(CZ) 16-16549S Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : bias correction * regional climate model * correlation * covariance * multivariate data * multisite correction * principal components * precipitation Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Climatic research Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016

  13. Cultural ecosystem services of mountain regions: Modelling the aesthetic value

    OpenAIRE

    Schirpke, Uta; Timmermann, Florian; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Tasser, Erich

    2016-01-01

    Mountain regions meet an increasing demand for pleasant landscapes, offering many cultural ecosystem services to both their residents and tourists. As a result of global change, land managers and policy makers are faced with changes to this landscape and need efficient evaluation techniques to assess cultural ecosystem services. This study provides a spatially explicit modelling approach to estimating aesthetic landscape values by relating spatial landscape patterns to human perceptions via a...

  14. Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2014-12-01

    Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

  15. Simple Model for Identifying Critical Regions in Atrial Fibrillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Kim; Manani, Kishan A.; Peters, Nicholas S.

    2015-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common abnormal heart rhythm and the single biggest cause of stroke. Ablation, destroying regions of the atria, is applied largely empirically and can be curative but with a disappointing clinical success rate. We design a simple model of activation wave front propagation on an anisotropic structure mimicking the branching network of heart muscle cells. This integration of phenomenological dynamics and pertinent structure shows how AF emerges spontaneously when the transverse cell-to-cell coupling decreases, as occurs with age, beyond a threshold value. We identify critical regions responsible for the initiation and maintenance of AF, the ablation of which terminates AF. The simplicity of the model allows us to calculate analytically the risk of arrhythmia and express the threshold value of transversal cell-to-cell coupling as a function of the model parameters. This threshold value decreases with increasing refractory period by reducing the number of critical regions which can initiate and sustain microreentrant circuits. These biologically testable predictions might inform ablation therapies and arrhythmic risk assessment.

  16. Methane Fluxes in West Siberia: 3-D Regional Model Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jagovkina, S. V.; Karol, I. L.; Zubov, V. A.; Lagun, V. E.; Reshetnikov, A. I.; Rozanov, E. V.

    2001-01-01

    The West Siberian region is one of the main contributors of the atmospheric greenhouse gas methane due to the large areas of wetlands, rivers, lakes and numerous gas deposits situated there.But there are no reliable estimations of integral methane flux from this area into the atmosphere. For assessment of methane fluxes in West Siberia the specially constructed 3-D regional chemical transport model was applied. The 3-D distribution of methane is calculated on the basis of the current meteorological data fields(wind, temperature, geopotential) updated 4 times a day. The methane concentrations measured near the main gas fields of West Siberia in the summer season of 1999, were used for correction of methane flux intensity estimates obtained previously by comparison of measurements carried out in summer 1993 and 1996 with modelled methane mixing ratio distribution. This set of field and model experiments confirmed the preliminary conclusion about low leakage intensity: anthropogenic methane flux does not exceed 5-15% of total summer methane flux, estimated as 11-12 Mt CH 4 in summer from this region, in spite of the large areas of gas deposits located there

  17. ORGEST: Regional guidelines and silvicultural models for sustainable forest management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piqué, Míriam; Vericat, Pau; Beltrán, Mario

    2017-11-01

    Aim of the study: To develop regional guidelines for sustainable forest management. Area of the study: Forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods: The process of developing the forest management guidelines (FMG) started by establishing a thorough classification of forest types at stand level. This classification hinges on two attributes: tree species composition and site quality based on ecological variables, which together determine potential productivity. From there, the management guidelines establish certain objectives and silvicultural models for each forest type. The forest type classifications, like the silvicultural models, were produced using both existing and newly-built growth models based on data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and expert knowledge. The effort involved over 20 expert working groups in order to better integrate the expertise and vision of different sectorial agents. Main results: The FMG consist in quantitative silvicultural models that include typical silvicultural variables, technical descriptions of treatments and codes of good practice. Guidelines now cover almost all forest types in Catalonia (spanning up to 90% of the Catalan forest area). Different silvicultural models have been developed for pure and mixed stands, different site quality classes (2–3 classes per species), and even- and multi-aged stands. Research highlights: FMG: i) orient the management of private and public forests, (ii) provide a technical scaffold for efficient allocation/investment of public subsidies in forest management, and (iii) bridge forest planning instruments at regional (strategic-tactical) and stand (operational) level.

  18. ORGEST: Regional guidelines and silvicultural models for sustainable forest management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piqué, Míriam; Vericat, Pau; Beltrán, Mario

    2017-01-01

    Aim of the study: To develop regional guidelines for sustainable forest management. Area of the study: Forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods: The process of developing the forest management guidelines (FMG) started by establishing a thorough classification of forest types at stand level. This classification hinges on two attributes: tree species composition and site quality based on ecological variables, which together determine potential productivity. From there, the management guidelines establish certain objectives and silvicultural models for each forest type. The forest type classifications, like the silvicultural models, were produced using both existing and newly-built growth models based on data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and expert knowledge. The effort involved over 20 expert working groups in order to better integrate the expertise and vision of different sectorial agents. Main results: The FMG consist in quantitative silvicultural models that include typical silvicultural variables, technical descriptions of treatments and codes of good practice. Guidelines now cover almost all forest types in Catalonia (spanning up to 90% of the Catalan forest area). Different silvicultural models have been developed for pure and mixed stands, different site quality classes (2–3 classes per species), and even- and multi-aged stands. Research highlights: FMG: i) orient the management of private and public forests, (ii) provide a technical scaffold for efficient allocation/investment of public subsidies in forest management, and (iii) bridge forest planning instruments at regional (strategic-tactical) and stand (operational) level.

  19. Modelling regional trade of CO{sub 2} certificates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bueeler, B.; Bahn, O.; Kypreos, S. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    Many countries have developed energy models (such as MARKAL-MACRO---MM) to assess their energy policies, in particular concerning the curbing of their carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. To integrate national MM models, we propose a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO (3M) model. It enables one to study an international co-operation to curb jointly CO{sub 2} emissions through a market of emission permits. Furthermore, from a decision support perspective, the 3M model can be used to integrate aspects of ecological sustainability (in relation to global climate change issue), economic welfare, efficient resource use and technological innovation. To solve 3M, we follow two alternative mathematical methods. (author) 4 refs.

  20. Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

  1. Tomographic models and seismotectonics of the Reggio Emilia region, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciaccio, M. G.; Chiarabba, C.

    2002-02-01

    The aim of this study is to define the Vp and Vp/Vs structure of the fault zone ruptured by the M L 5.1 earthquake of October 15, 1996 which occurred near Reggio Emilia (central-northern Italy). A 1-month-long seismic sequence followed the mainshock and occurred in a small region along the outer border of the northern Apenninic belt, at depth ranging between 10 and 17 km. P- and S-wave arrival times from 304 aftershocks recorded by two local dense seismic arrays installed in the epicentral region have been inverted to obtain one- and three-dimensional velocity models by using state of the art local earthquake tomographic techniques. Velocity models and aftershock relocation help us to infer the seismotectonic of the region. Earthquakes originated along a NW-dipping backthrust of a NE-trending main thrust, composing the western part of the broad Ferrara Arc. A main high Vp and high Vp/Vs region delineates a pop-up structure in the center of the area. The high Vp/Vs within the pop-up structure supports the presence of a zone with increased pore pressure. The hypocentral depth of both mainshock and aftershocks is greater than those usually found for the main seismogenic regions of the Apenninic belt. P-wave velocity values in the seismogenic area, obtained by tomography, are compatible with rocks of the Mesozoic cover and suggest that seismicity occurred within the Mesozoic units stack at present by compressional tectonics.

  2. A Reusable Framework for Regional Climate Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, A. F.; Goodale, C. E.; Mattmann, C. A.; Lean, P.; Kim, J.; Zimdars, P.; Waliser, D. E.; Crichton, D. J.

    2011-12-01

    Climate observations are currently obtained through a diverse network of sensors and platforms that include space-based observatories, airborne and seaborne platforms, and distributed, networked, ground-based instruments. These global observational measurements are critical inputs to the efforts of the climate modeling community and can provide a corpus of data for use in analysis and validation of climate models. The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is an effort currently being undertaken to address the challenges of integrating this vast array of observational climate data into a coherent resource suitable for performing model analysis at the regional level. Developed through a collaboration between the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the UCLA Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering (JIFRESSE), the RCMES uses existing open source technologies (MySQL, Apache Hadoop, and Apache OODT), to construct a scalable, parametric, geospatial data store that incorporates decades of observational data from a variety of NASA Earth science missions, as well as other sources into a consistently annotated, highly available scientific resource. By eliminating arbitrary partitions in the data (individual file boundaries, differing file formats, etc), and instead treating each individual observational measurement as a unique, geospatially referenced data point, the RCMES is capable of transforming large, heterogeneous collections of disparate observational data into a unified resource suitable for comparison to climate model output. This facility is further enhanced by the availability of a model evaluation toolkit which consists of a set of Python libraries, a RESTful web service layer, and a browser-based graphical user interface that allows for orchestration of model-to-data comparisons by composing them visually through web forms. This combination of tools and interfaces dramatically simplifies the process of interacting with and

  3. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H Jagger

    Full Text Available Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA. A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  4. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagger, Thomas H; Elsner, James B; Widen, Holly M

    2015-01-01

    Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA). A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  5. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  6. Mesoscale modeling of smoke radiative feedback over the Sahel region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.; Wang, J.; Ichoku, C. M.; Ellison, L.; Zhang, F.; Yue, Y.

    2013-12-01

    This study employs satellite observations and a fully-coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model, Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to study the smoke radative feedback on surface energy budget, boundary layer processes, and atmospheric lapse rate in February 2008 over the Sahel region. The smoke emission inventories we use come from various sources, including but not limited to the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) developed by NRL and the Fire Energetic and Emissions Research (FEER) developed by NASA GSFC. Model performance is evaluated using numerous satellite and ground-based datasets: MODIS true color images, ground-based Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) measurements from AERONET, MODIS AOD retrievals, and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar data with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) atmospheric backscattering and extinction products. Specification of smoke injection height of 650 m in WRF-Chem yields aerosol vertical profiles that are most consistent with CALIOP observations of aerosol layer height. Statistically, 5% of the CALIPSO valid measurements of aerosols in February 2008 show aerosol layers either above the clouds or between the clouds, reinforcing the importance of the aerosol vertical distribution for quantifying aerosol impact on climate in the Sahel region. The results further show that the smoke radiative feedbacks are sensitive to assumptions of black carbon and organic carbon ratio in the particle emission inventory. Also investigated is the smoke semi-direct effect as a function of cloud fraction.

  7. Numerical modeling of regional stress distributions for geothermal exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillon, Theophile; Peter-Borie, Mariane; Gentier, Sylvie; Blaisonneau, Arnold

    2017-04-01

    Any high-enthalpy unconventional geothermal projectcan be jeopardized by the uncertainty on the presence of the geothermal resource at depth. Indeed, for the majority of such projects the geothermal resource is deeply seated and, with the drilling costs increasing accordingly, must be located as precisely as possible to increase the chance of their economic viability. In order to reduce the "geological risk", i.e., the chance to poorly locate the geothermal resource, a maximum amount of information must be gathered prior to any drilling of exploration and/or operational well. Cross-interpretation from multiple disciplines (e.g., geophysics, hydrology, geomechanics …) should improve locating the geothermal resource and so the position of exploration wells ; this is the objective of the European project IMAGE (grant agreement No. 608553), under which the work presented here was carried out. As far as geomechanics is concerned, in situ stresses can have a great impact on the presence of a geothermal resource since they condition both the regime within the rock mass, and the state of the major fault zones (and hence, the possible flow paths). In this work, we propose a geomechanical model to assess the stress distribution at the regional scale (characteristic length of 100 kilometers). Since they have a substantial impact on the stress distributions and on the possible creation of regional flow paths, the major fault zones are explicitly taken into account. The Distinct Element Method is used, where the medium is modeled as fully deformable blocks representing the rock mass interacting through mechanically active joints depicting the fault zones. The first step of the study is to build the model geometry based on geological and geophysical evidences. Geophysical and structural geology results help positioning the major fault zones in the first place. Then, outcrop observations, structural models and site-specific geological knowledge give information on the fault

  8. Challenges of model transferability to data-scarce regions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, L. E.

    2013-12-01

    Developing the ability to globally predict the movement of water on the land surface at spatial scales from 1 to 5 km constitute one of grand challenges in land surface modelling. Copying with this grand challenge implies that land surface models (LSM) should be able to make reliable predictions across locations and/or scales other than those used for parameter estimation. In addition to that, data scarcity and quality impose further difficulties in attaining reliable predictions of water and energy fluxes at the scales of interest. Current computational limitations impose also seriously limitations to exhaustively investigate the parameter space of LSM over large domains (e.g. greater than half a million square kilometers). Addressing these challenges require holistic approaches that integrate the best techniques available for parameter estimation, field measurements and remotely sensed data at their native resolutions. An attempt to systematically address these issues is the multiscale parameterisation technique (MPR) that links high resolution land surface characteristics with effective model parameters. This technique requires a number of pedo-transfer functions and a much fewer global parameters (i.e. coefficients) to be inferred by calibration in gauged basins. The key advantage of this technique is the quasi-scale independence of the global parameters which enables to estimate global parameters at coarser spatial resolutions and then to transfer them to (ungauged) areas and scales of interest. In this study we show the ability of this technique to reproduce the observed water fluxes and states over a wide range of climate and land surface conditions ranging from humid to semiarid and from sparse to dense forested regions. Results of transferability of global model parameters in space (from humid to semi-arid basins) and across scales (from coarser to finer) clearly indicate the robustness of this technique. Simulations with coarse data sets (e.g. EOBS

  9. The Tax harmonization in open regionalism ; The European model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mouloud MELIKAOUI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the subject of alternative regionalism or open regionalism and reality within the multilateral trading system, based on growing liberalization of trade, and the problem of compatibility between them, as well as the limits of economic policy harmonization in the framework of Open regionalism, special tax harmonization, in the light of economic and tax disparities of the Member States, with an overview of the European tax harmonization and limits. The Study concluded the importance of tax harmonization as a tool by activation of the concept of open regionalism, through facilitating capitals flows and investments between member states and reduction of the négatives phenomena of tax. It recommended the need to emphasizing on the importance of gradually harmonization for tax policy, and expand the rule of tax treaties and exchange of tax information and experiences between countries, This is in light a holistic approach to other economic policies as a the exchange rate policy and monetary policy, just as is the case in the European model.

  10. Observational tests for H II region models - A 'champagne party'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alloin, D; Tenorio-Tagle, G

    1979-09-01

    Observations of several neighboring H II regions associated with a molecular cloud were performed in order to test the champagne model of H II region-molecular cloud interaction leading to the supersonic expansion of molecular cloud gas. Nine different positions in the Gum 61 nebula were observed using an image dissector scanner attached to a 3.6-m telescope, and it is found that the area corresponds to a low excitation, high density nebula, with electron densities ranging between 1400 and 2800/cu cm and larger along the boundary of the ionized gas. An observed increase in pressure and density located in an interior region of the nebula is interpreted in terms of an area between two rarefaction waves generated together with a strong isothermal shock, responsible for the champagne-like streaming, by a pressure discontinuity between the ionized molecular cloud in which star formation takes place and the intercloud gas. It is noted that a velocity field determination would provide the key in understanding the evolution of such a region.

  11. Synergies Between Grace and Regional Atmospheric Modeling Efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusche, J.; Springer, A.; Ohlwein, C.; Hartung, K.; Longuevergne, L.; Kollet, S. J.; Keune, J.; Dobslaw, H.; Forootan, E.; Eicker, A.

    2014-12-01

    In the meteorological community, efforts converge towards implementation of high-resolution (precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff data; confirming that the model does favorably at representing observations. We show that after GRACE-derived bias correction, basin-average hydrological conditions prior to 2002 can be reconstructed better than before. Next, comparing GRACE with CLM forced by EURO-CORDEX simulations allows identifying processes needing improvement in the model. Finally, we compare COSMO-EU atmospheric pressure, a proxy for mass corrections in satellite gravimetry, with ERA-Interim over Europe at timescales shorter/longer than 1 month, and spatial scales below/above ERA resolution. We find differences between regional and global model more pronounced at high frequencies, with magnitude at sub-grid scale and larger scale corresponding to 1-3 hPa (1-3 cm EWH); relevant for the assessment of post-GRACE concepts.

  12. Modelling the development of mixing height in near equatorial region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samah, A.A. [Univ. of Malaya, Air Pollution Research Unit, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

    1997-10-01

    Most current air pollution models were developed for mid-latitude conditions and as such many of the empirical parameters used were based on observations taken in the mid-latitude boundary layer which is physically different from that of the equatorial boundary layer. In the equatorial boundary layer the Coriolis parameter f is small or zero and moisture plays a more important role in the control of stability and the surface energy balance. Therefore air pollution models such as the OMLMULTI or the ADMS which were basically developed for mid-latitude conditions must be applied with some caution and would need some adaptation to properly simulate the properties of equatorial boundary layer. This work elucidates some of the problems of modelling the evolution of mixing height in the equatorial region. The mixing height estimates were compared with routine observations taken during a severe air pollution episodes in Malaysia. (au)

  13. Self-Consistent Dynamical Model of the Broad Line Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Czerny, Bozena [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Li, Yan-Rong [Key Laboratory for Particle Astrophysics, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Sredzinska, Justyna; Hryniewicz, Krzysztof [Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Panda, Swayam [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Wildy, Conor [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Karas, Vladimir, E-mail: bcz@cft.edu.pl [Astronomical Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague (Czech Republic)

    2017-06-22

    We develop a self-consistent description of the Broad Line Region based on the concept of a failed wind powered by radiation pressure acting on a dusty accretion disk atmosphere in Keplerian motion. The material raised high above the disk is illuminated, dust evaporates, and the matter falls back toward the disk. This material is the source of emission lines. The model predicts the inner and outer radius of the region, the cloud dynamics under the dust radiation pressure and, subsequently, the gravitational field of the central black hole, which results in asymmetry between the rise and fall. Knowledge of the dynamics allows us to predict the shapes of the emission lines as functions of the basic parameters of an active nucleus: black hole mass, accretion rate, black hole spin (or accretion efficiency) and the viewing angle with respect to the symmetry axis. Here we show preliminary results based on analytical approximations to the cloud motion.

  14. Self-Consistent Dynamical Model of the Broad Line Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bozena Czerny

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We develop a self-consistent description of the Broad Line Region based on the concept of a failed wind powered by radiation pressure acting on a dusty accretion disk atmosphere in Keplerian motion. The material raised high above the disk is illuminated, dust evaporates, and the matter falls back toward the disk. This material is the source of emission lines. The model predicts the inner and outer radius of the region, the cloud dynamics under the dust radiation pressure and, subsequently, the gravitational field of the central black hole, which results in asymmetry between the rise and fall. Knowledge of the dynamics allows us to predict the shapes of the emission lines as functions of the basic parameters of an active nucleus: black hole mass, accretion rate, black hole spin (or accretion efficiency and the viewing angle with respect to the symmetry axis. Here we show preliminary results based on analytical approximations to the cloud motion.

  15. Integration of Local Hydrology into Regional Hydrologic Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Zee, R. J.; Lal, W. A.

    2002-05-01

    South Florida hydrology is dominated by the Central and South Florida (C&SF) Project that is managed to provide flood protection, water supply and environmental protection. A complex network of levees canals and structures provide these services to the individual drainage basins. The landscape varies widely across the C&SF system, with corresponding differences in the way water is managed within each basin. Agricultural areas are managed for optimal crop production. Urban areas maximize flood protection while maintaining minimum water levels to protect adjacent wetlands and local water supplies. "Natural" areas flood and dry out in response to the temporal distribution of rainfall. The evaluation of planning, regulation and operational issues require access to a simulation model that captures the effects of both regional and local hydrology. The Regional Simulation Model (RSM) uses a "pseudo-cell" approach to integrate local hydrology within the context of a regional hydrologic system. A 2-dimensional triangulated mesh is used to represent the regional surface and ground water systems and a 1-dimensional canal network is superimposed onto this mesh. The movement of water is simulated using a finite volume formulation with a diffusive wave approximation. Each cell in the triangulated mesh has a "pseudo-cell" counterpart, which represents the same area as the cell, but it is conceptualized such that it simulates the localized hydrologic conditions Protocols have been established to provide an interface between a cell and its pseudo-cell counterpart. . A number of pseudo-cell types have already been developed and tested in the simulation of Water Conservation Area 1 and several have been proposed to deal with specific local issues in the Southwest Florida Feasibility Study. This presentation will provide an overview of the overall RSM design, describe the relationship between cells and pseudo-cells, and illustrate how pseudo-cells are be used to simulate agriculture

  16. The regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Pietikäinen

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes most of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM is coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. On the other hand, REMO-HAM does not include an online coupled aerosol-radiation nor a secondary organic aerosol module. In this work, we evaluate the model and compare the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites were chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50 × 50 km2 and 10 × 10 km2. Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM is in reasonable agreement with the measured values. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. Since we did not use activation nor kinetic nucleation for the boundary layer, the total number concentrations are somewhat underestimated. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we show that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

  17. Modelization of highly nonlinear waves in coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouin, Maïté; Ducrozet, Guillaume; Ferrant, Pierre

    2015-04-01

    The proposed work deals with the development of a highly non-linear model for water wave propagation in coastal regions. The accurate modelization of surface gravity waves is of major interest in ocean engineering, especially in the field of marine renewable energy. These marine structures are intended to be settled in coastal regions where the effect of variable bathymetry may be significant on local wave conditions. This study presents a numerical model for the wave propagation with complex bathymetry. It is based on High-Order Spectral (HOS) method, initially limited to the propagation of non-linear wave fields over flat bottom. Such a model has been developed and validated at the LHEEA Lab. (Ecole Centrale Nantes) over the past few years and the current developments will enlarge its application range. This new numerical model will keep the interesting numerical properties of the original pseudo-spectral approach (convergence, efficiency with the use of FFTs, …) and enable the possibility to propagate highly non-linear wave fields over long time and large distance. Different validations will be provided in addition to the presentation of the method. At first, Bragg reflection will be studied with the proposed approach. If the Bragg condition is satisfied, the reflected wave generated by a sinusoidal bottom patch should be amplified as a result of resonant quadratic interactions between incident wave and bottom. Comparisons will be provided with experiments and reference solutions. Then, the method will be used to consider the transformation of a non-linear monochromatic wave as it propagates up and over a submerged bar. As the waves travel up the front slope of the bar, it steepens and high harmonics are generated due to non-linear interactions. Comparisons with experimental data will be provided. The different test cases will assess the accuracy and efficiency of the method proposed.

  18. Modeling Regional Pollution Episodes With The Ctm Mocage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufour, A.; Brocheton, F.; Amodei, M.; Peuch, V.-H.

    Several regional ozone pollution episodes have been studied in the context of two recent extensive field campaigns in France: ESQUIF, in the Paris region and ES- COMPTE, in the vicinity of Marseilles. MOCAGE is an off-line multi-scale Chem- istry and Transport Model (CTM), driven by the operational numerical weather pre- diction models of Météo-France, ARPEGE and ALADIN. It covers from the global to the regional scale, by means of up to four levels of nested domains, and extends up to the middle stratosphere; thus, there is no need for external boundary conditions, neither on the horizontal or on the vertical. These original features allows to cover with MOCAGE a wide range of scientific applications, from routine air-pollution fore- casts to long-term simulations related to climate issues. The present study focuses on the simulation of regional-scale photo-oxidant episodes and on the impact on larger scales of the transport of ozone, of precursors and of reservoir species. The first ex- ample concerns a polluted episode of the ESQUIF campaign (IOP6). In addition to ground measurements, 8 flights have documented the situation, showing a diversity of chemical regimes. This variability is quite satisfactorily reproduced by the model. A special attention was also paid to vertical and horizontal exchanges, particularly to interactions between the boundary layer and the free troposphere. An interesting case of an ill-represented residual nocturnal plume in the simulation of ESQUIF IOP5 will be presented: during this IOP, the vertical structure of the lower troposphere was well characterized by four flights. Free troposphere concentrations of ozone appear to be well reproduced by the model, except for the intensity and vertical extent of a residual plume, which are overestimated. For the day after, in addition to a direct impact on surface concentrations, the simulated development of the boundary layer is found to be too slow ; both errors contribute to an

  19. Geophysical and geochemical regional evaluation and geophysical model for uranium exploration in the western part of Yanliao region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Tengyao; Cui Huanmin; Chen Guoliang; Zhai Yugui

    1992-01-01

    The western part of Yanliao region is an important uranium metallogenic region. This paper summarizes the regional geophysical model for uranium exploration composed of prediction model for favourable area of mineralization and evaluation model for anomalies on the basis of aeromagnetic and aeroradiometric data interpretation and analysis of the data from carborane and ground gamma spectrometric survey, high accurate magnetic survey, VLF survey and α-collected film survey in mult-displiary research work. The prospective prediction for uranium metallogenesis in this region was also conducted

  20. Modeling the explosion-source region: An overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glenn, L.A.

    1993-01-01

    The explosion-source region is defined as the region surrounding an underground explosion that cannot be described by elastic or anelastic theory. This region extends typically to ranges up to 1 km/(kt) 1/3 but for some purposes, such as yield estimation via hydrodynamic means (CORRTEX and HYDRO PLUS), the maximum range of interest is less by an order of magnitude. For the simulation or analysis of seismic signals, however, what is required is the time resolved motion and stress state at the inelastic boundary. Various analytic approximations have been made for these boundary conditions, but since they rely on near-field empirical data they cannot be expected to reliably extrapolate to different explosion sites. More important, without some knowledge of the initial energy density and the characteristics of the medium immediately surrounding the explosion, these simplified models are unable to distinguish chemical from nuclear explosions, identify cavity decoupling, or account for such phenomena as anomalous dissipation via pore collapse

  1. Implementation of a parallel version of a regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerstengarbe, F.W. [ed.; Kuecken, M. [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Schaettler, U. [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main (Germany). Geschaeftsbereich Forschung und Entwicklung

    1997-10-01

    A regional climate model developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meterology and the German Climate Computing Centre in Hamburg based on the `Europa` and `Deutschland` models of the German Weather Service has been parallelized and implemented on the IBM RS/6000 SP computer system of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research including parallel input/output processing, the explicit Eulerian time-step, the semi-implicit corrections, the normal-mode initialization and the physical parameterizations of the German Weather Service. The implementation utilizes Fortran 90 and the Message Passing Interface. The parallelization strategy used is a 2D domain decomposition. This report describes the parallelization strategy, the parallel I/O organization, the influence of different domain decomposition approaches for static and dynamic load imbalances and first numerical results. (orig.)

  2. Regional Persistent Organic Pollutants' Environmental Impact Assessment and Control Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgis Staniskis

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The sources of formation, environmental distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs are increasingly seen as topics to be addressed and solved at the global scale. Therefore, there are already two international agreements concerning persistent organic pollutants: the Protocol of 1998 to the 1979 Convention on the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Persistent Organic Pollutants (Aarhus Protocol; and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. For the assessment of environmental pollution of POPs, for the risk assessment, for the evaluation of new pollutants as potential candidates to be included in the POPs list of the Stokholmo or/and Aarhus Protocol, a set of different models are developed or under development. Multimedia models help describe and understand environmental processes leading to global contamination through POPs and actual risk to the environment and human health. However, there is a lack of the tools based on a systematic and integrated approach to POPs management difficulties in the region.

  3. The Alpine snow-albedo feedback in regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Kevin J.-P. M.; Kotlarski, Sven; Scherrer, Simon C.; Schär, Christoph

    2017-02-01

    The effect of the snow-albedo feedback (SAF) on 2m temperatures and their future changes in the European Alps is investigated in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) with a focus on the spring season. A total of 14 re-analysis-driven RCM experiments covering the period 1961-2000 and 10 GCM-driven transient climate change projections for 1950-2099 are analysed. A positive springtime SAF is found in all RCMs, but the range of the diagnosed SAF is large. Results are compared against an observation-based SAF estimate. For some RCMs, values very close to this estimate are found; other models show a considerable overestimation of the SAF. Net shortwave radiation has the largest influence of all components of the energy balance on the diagnosed SAF and can partly explain its spatial variability. Model deficiencies in reproducing 2m temperatures above snow and ice and associated cold temperature biases at high elevations seem to contribute to a SAF overestimation in several RCMs. The diagnosed SAF in the observational period strongly influences the estimated SAF contribution to twenty first century temperature changes in the European Alps. This contribution is subject to a clear elevation dependency that is governed by the elevation-dependent change in the number of snow days. Elevations of maximum SAF contribution range from 1500 to 2000 m in spring and are found above 2000 m in summer. Here, a SAF contribution to the total simulated temperature change between 0 and 0.5 °C until 2099 (multi-model mean in spring: 0.26 °C) or 0 and 14 % (multi-model mean in spring: 8 %) is obtained for models showing a realistic SAF. These numbers represent a well-funded but only approximate estimate of the SAF contribution to future warming, and a remaining contribution of model-specific SAF misrepresentations cannot be ruled out.

  4. Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from cropland at the regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabrielle Benoît

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Arable soils are a large source of nitrous oxide (N2O emissions, making up half of the biogenic emissions worldwide. Estimating their source strength requires methods capable of capturing the spatial and temporal variability of N2O emissions, along with the effects of crop management. Here, we applied a process-based model, CERES, with geo-referenced input data on soils, weather, and land use to map N2O emissions from wheat-cropped soils in three agriculturally intensive regions in France. Emissions were mostly controlled by soil type and local climate conditions, and only to a minor extent by the doses of fertilizer nitrogen applied. As a result, the direct emission factors calculated at the regional level were much smaller (ranging from 0.0007 to 0.0033 kg N2O-N kg–1 N than the value of 0.0125 kg N2O-N kg–1 N currently recommended in the IPCC Tier 1 methodology. Regional emissions were far more sensitive to the soil microbiological parameter s governing denitrification and its fraction evolved as N2O, soil bulk density, and soil initial inorganic N content. Mitigation measures should therefore target a reduction in the amount of soil inorganic N upon sowing of winter crops, and a decrease of the soil N2O production potential itself. From a general perspective, taking into account the spatial variability of soils and climate thereby appears necessary to improve the accuracy of national inventories, and to tailor mitigation strategies to regional characteristics. The methodology and results presented here may easily be transferred to winter oilseed rape, whose has growing cycle and fertilser requirements are similar.

  5. Zooming in on cirrus with the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanof, C.; Stefanof, A.; Beaulne, A.; Munoz Alpizar, R.; Szyrmer, W.; Blanchet, J.

    2004-05-01

    The Canadian Regional Climate Model plus a microphysical scheme: two-moments microphysics with three hydrometeor categories (cloud liquid water, pristine ice crystals and larger precipitation crystals) is used to test the simulation in forecast mode using ECMWF data at 0.4 X 0.4 degree. We are zooming in on cirrus at higher resolutions (9, 1.8, 0.36 km). We are currently using the data set measured in APEX-E3, measurements of radar, lidar, passive instruments and interpreted microphysics for some flights (G-II, C404, B200). The radar and lidar data are available for high level cirrus. The south west of Japon is the flight region. The dates are March 20, March 27 and April 2, 2003. We first focus on the March 27 frontal system. We did a rigorous synoptical analysis for the cases. The cirrus at 360 m resolution are simulated. The cloud structure and some similarities between model simulation and observations will be presented.

  6. Všichni svatí z Heřmánkovic: lidové nebo evropské umění?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Mádl, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 77, 1/2 (2017), s. 115-122 ISSN 1210-5538 Grant - others:Regionální spolupráce mezi AV ČR a Královéhradeckým krajem(CZ) R30033150 Institutional support: RVO:68378033 Keywords : Baroque art * ceiling painting * Benedictines Subject RIV: AL - Art, Architecture, Cultural Heritage OBOR OECD: Arts, Art history

  7. Modulation of extremes in the Atlantic region by modes of climate variability/change: A mechanistic coupled regional model study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saravanan, Ramalingam [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2015-01-09

    During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: 1) Explored the parameter space of component models to minimize regional model bias 2) Assessed the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, focusing in particular on the role of the oceanic barrier layer 3) Contributed to the activities of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group 4) Assessed the impact of lateral and lower boundary conditions on extreme flooding events in the U.S. Midwest in regional model simulations 5) Analyzed the concurrent impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Atlantic Hurricane activity using observations and regional model simulations

  8. Optimization of Regional Geodynamic Models for Mantle Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knepley, M.; Isaac, T.; Jadamec, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    The SubductionGenerator program is used to construct high resolution, 3D regional thermal structures for mantle convection simulations using a variety of data sources, including sea floor ages and geographically referenced 3D slab locations based on seismic observations. The initial bulk temperature field is constructed using a half-space cooling model or plate cooling model, and related smoothing functions based on a diffusion length-scale analysis. In this work, we seek to improve the 3D thermal model and test different model geometries and dynamically driven flow fields using constraints from observed seismic velocities and plate motions. Through a formal adjoint analysis, we construct the primal-dual version of the multi-objective PDE-constrained optimization problem for the plate motions and seismic misfit. We have efficient, scalable preconditioners for both the forward and adjoint problems based upon a block preconditioning strategy, and a simple gradient update is used to improve the control residual. The full optimal control problem is formulated on a nested hierarchy of grids, allowing a nonlinear multigrid method to accelerate the solution.

  9. Globally covering a-priori regional gravity covariance models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Arabelos

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Gravity anomaly data generated using Wenzel’s GPM98A model complete to degree 1800, from which OSU91A has been subtracted, have been used to estimate covariance functions for a set of globally covering equal-area blocks of size 22.5° × 22.5° at Equator, having a 2.5° overlap. For each block an analytic covariance function model was determined. The models are based on 4 parameters: the depth to the Bjerhammar sphere (determines correlation, the free-air gravity anomaly variance, a scale factor of the OSU91A error degree-variances and a maximal summation index, N, of the error degree-variances. The depth of Bjerhammar-sphere varies from -134km to nearly zero, N varies from 360 to 40, the scale factor from 0.03 to 38.0 and the gravity variance from 1081 to 24(10µms-22. The parameters are interpreted in terms of the quality of the data used to construct OSU91A and GPM98A and general conditions such as the occurrence of mountain chains. The variation of the parameters show that it is necessary to use regional covariance models in order to obtain a realistic signal to noise ratio in global applications.Key words. GOCE mission, Covariance function, Spacewise approach`

  10. A review on regional convection permitting climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Lipzig, Nicole; Prein, Andreas; Brisson, Erwan; Van Weverberg, Kwinten; Demuzere, Matthias; Saeed, Sajjad; Stengel, Martin

    2016-04-01

    are addressed in future research. Coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs. Brisson, E., K. Van Weverberg, M. Demuzere, A. Devis, S. Saeed, M. Stengel, N.P.M. van Lipzig, 2016. How well can a convection-permitting climate model reproduce 1 decadal statistics of precipitation, temperature and cloud characteristics? Clim. Dyn. (minor revisions). Prein, Andreas F., Wolfgang Langhans, Giorgia Fosser, Andrew Ferrone, Nikolina Ban, Klaus Goergen, Michael Keller, Merja Tölle, Oliver Gutjahr, Frauke Feser, Erwan Brisson, Stefan Kollet, Juerg Schmidli, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Ruby Leung. (2015) A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges. Reviews of Geophysics 53:10.1002/rog.v53.2, 323-361

  11. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  12. Multimedia Modeling System Response to Regional Land Management Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooter, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    A multi-media system of nitrogen and co-pollutant models describing critical physical and chemical processes that cascade synergistically and competitively through the environment, the economy and society has been developed at the USEPA Office of Research and Development. It is populated with linked or fully coupled models that address nutrient research questions such as, "How might future policy, climate or land cover change in the Mississippi River Basin affect Nitrogen and Phosphorous loadings to the Gulf of Mexico" or, "What are the management implications of regional-scale land management changes for the sustainability of air, land and water quality?" This second question requires explicit consideration of economic (e.g. sector prices) and societal (e.g. land management) factors. Metrics that illustrate biosphere-atmosphere interactions such as atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations, atmospheric N loading to surface water, soil organic N and N percolation to groundwater are calculated. An example application has been completed that is driven by a coupled agricultural and energy sector model scenario. The economic scenario assumes that by 2022 there is: 1) no detectable change in weather patterns relative to 2002; 2) a concentration of stover processing facilities in the Upper Midwest; 3) increasing offshore Pacific and Atlantic marine transportation; and 4) increasing corn, soybean and wheat production that meets future demand for food, feed and energy feedstocks. This production goal is reached without adding or removing agricultural land area whose extent is defined by the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 2002v2011 classes 81 and 82. This goal does require, however, crop shifts and agricultural management changes. The multi-media system response over our U.S. 12km rectangular grid resolution analysis suggests that there are regions of potential environmental and health costs, as well as large areas that could experience unanticipated environmental and health

  13. Improvement of snowpack simulations in a regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, J.; Miller, N.L.

    2011-01-10

    To improve simulations of regional-scale snow processes and related cold-season hydroclimate, the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), was coupled with the Pennsylvania State University/NCAR fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). CLM3 physically describes the mass and heat transfer within the snowpack using five snow layers that include liquid water and solid ice. The coupled MM5–CLM3 model performance was evaluated for the snowmelt season in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwestern United States using gridded temperature and precipitation observations, along with station observations. The results from MM5–CLM3 show a significant improvement in the SWE simulation, which has been underestimated in the original version of MM5 coupled with the Noah land-surface model. One important cause for the underestimated SWE in Noah is its unrealistic land-surface structure configuration where vegetation, snow and the topsoil layer are blended when snow is present. This study demonstrates the importance of the sheltering effects of the forest canopy on snow surface energy budgets, which is included in CLM3. Such effects are further seen in the simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in regional weather and climate models such as MM5. In addition, the snow-season surface albedo overestimated by MM5–Noah is now more accurately predicted by MM5–CLM3 using a more realistic albedo algorithm that intensifies the solar radiation absorption on the land surface, reducing the strong near-surface cold bias in MM5–Noah. The cold bias is further alleviated due to a slower snowmelt rate in MM5–CLM3 during the early snowmelt stage, which is closer to observations than the comparable components of MM5–Noah. In addition, the over-predicted precipitation in the Pacific Northwest as shown in MM5–Noah is significantly decreased in MM5 CLM3 due to the lower evaporation resulting from the

  14. Hydrologic model of the Modesto Region, California, 1960-2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Steven P.; Rewis, Diane L.; Traum, Jonathan A.

    2015-01-01

    Strategies for managing water supplies and groundwater quality in the Modesto region of the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California, are being formulated and evaluated by the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association. Management issues and goals in the basin include an area in the lower part of the basin that requires drainage of the shallow water table to sustain agriculture, intra- and inter-basin migration of poor-quality groundwater, and efficient management of surface and groundwater supplies. To aid in the evaluation of water-management strategies, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association have developed a hydrologic model that simulates monthly groundwater and surface-water flow as governed by aquifer-system properties, annual and seasonal variations in climate, surface-water flow and availability, water use, and land use. The model was constructed by using the U.S. Geological Survey groundwater-modeling software MODFLOW-OWHM with the Farm Process.

  15. Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. Outten

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Extreme winds cause vast amounts of damage every year and represent a major concern for numerous industries including construction, afforestation, wind energy and many others. Under a changing climate, the intensity and frequency of extreme events are expected to change, and accurate projections of these changes will be invaluable to decision makers and society as a whole. This work examines four regional climate model downscalings over Europe following the SRES A1B scenario from the "ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts" project (ENSEMBLES. It investigates the projected changes in the 50 yr return wind speeds and the associated uncertainties. This is accomplished by employing the peaks-over-threshold method with the use of the generalised Pareto distribution. The models show that, for much of Europe, the 50 yr return wind is projected to change by less than 2 m s−1, while the uncertainties associated with the statistical estimates are larger than this. In keeping with previous works in this field, the largest source of uncertainty is found to be the inter-model spread, with some locations showing differences in the 50 yr return wind of over 20 m s−1 between two different downscalings.

  16. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  17. Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob

    2010-01-01

    Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...... described by the standard winds derived from the REMO pressure data. The mean wind parameters include the directional wind distribution, directional and omni-directional mean values and Weibull fitting parameters, spectral analysis and interannual variability of the standard winds. It was also found that......, on average, the wind characteristics from REMO are in better agreement with observations than those derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis pressure data. The spatial correlation of REMO surface winds in Europe...

  18. AN ANALYTIC MODEL OF DUSTY, STRATIFIED, SPHERICAL H ii REGIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodríguez-Ramírez, J. C.; Raga, A. C. [Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ap. 70-543, 04510 D.F., México (Mexico); Lora, V. [Astronomisches Rechen-Institut, Zentrum für Astronomie der Universität, Mönchhofstr. 12-14, D-69120 Heidelberg (Germany); Cantó, J., E-mail: juan.rodriguez@nucleares.unam.mx [Instituto de Astronomía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ap. 70-468, 04510 D. F., México (Mexico)

    2016-12-20

    We study analytically the effect of radiation pressure (associated with photoionization processes and with dust absorption) on spherical, hydrostatic H ii regions. We consider two basic equations, one for the hydrostatic balance between the radiation-pressure components and the gas pressure, and another for the balance among the recombination rate, the dust absorption, and the ionizing photon rate. Based on appropriate mathematical approximations, we find a simple analytic solution for the density stratification of the nebula, which is defined by specifying the radius of the external boundary, the cross section of dust absorption, and the luminosity of the central star. We compare the analytic solution with numerical integrations of the model equations of Draine, and find a wide range of the physical parameters for which the analytic solution is accurate.

  19. Comprehensive Regional Modeling for Long-Range Planning: Linking Integrated Urban Models and Geographic Information Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Johnston, Robert; de la Barra, Thomas

    2000-01-01

    This study demonstrates the sequential linking of two types of models to permit the comprehensive evaluation of regional transportation and land use policies. First, we operate an integrated urban model (TRANUS), which represents both land and travel markets with zones and networks. The travel and land use projections from TRANUS are outlined, to demonstrate the general reasonableness of the results, as this is the first application of a market-based urban model in the US. Second, the land us...

  20. Land surface evapotranspiration modelling at the regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffelli, Giulia; Ferraris, Stefano; Canone, Davide; Previati, Maurizio; Gisolo, Davide; Provenzale, Antonello

    2017-04-01

    Climate change has relevant implications for the environment, water resources and human life in general. The observed increment of mean air temperature, in addition to a more frequent occurrence of extreme events such as droughts, may have a severe effect on the hydrological cycle. Besides climate change, land use changes are assumed to be another relevant component of global change in terms of impacts on terrestrial ecosystems: socio-economic changes have led to conversions between meadows and pastures and in most cases to a complete abandonment of grasslands. Water is subject to different physical processes among which evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most significant. In fact, ET plays a key role in estimating crop growth, water demand and irrigation water management, so estimating values of ET can be crucial for water resource planning, irrigation requirement and agricultural production. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the amount of evaporation that occurs when a sufficient water source is available. It can be estimated just knowing temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) and solar radiation. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is instead the real quantity of water which is consumed by soil and vegetation; it is obtained as a fraction of PET. The aim of this work was to apply a simplified hydrological model to calculate AET for the province of Turin (Italy) in order to assess the water content and estimate the groundwater recharge at a regional scale. The soil is seen as a bucket (FAO56 model, Allen et al., 1998) made of different layers, which interact with water and vegetation. The water balance is given by precipitations (both rain and snow) and dew as positive inputs, while AET, runoff and drainage represent the rate of water escaping from soil. The difference between inputs and outputs is the water stock. Model data inputs are: soil characteristics (percentage of clay, silt, sand, rocks and organic matter); soil depth; the wilting point (i.e. the

  1. Surface wind mixing in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Robin; Hartlipp, Paul

    2017-12-01

    Mixing at the ocean surface is key for atmosphere-ocean interactions and the distribution of heat, energy, and gases in the upper ocean. Winds are the primary force for surface mixing. To properly simulate upper ocean dynamics and the flux of these quantities within the upper ocean, models must reproduce mixing in the upper ocean. To evaluate the performance of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) in replicating the surface mixing, the results of four different vertical mixing parameterizations were compared against observations, using the surface mixed layer depth, the temperature fields, and observed diffusivities for comparisons. The vertical mixing parameterizations investigated were Mellor- Yamada 2.5 level turbulent closure (MY), Large- McWilliams- Doney Kpp (LMD), Nakanishi- Niino (NN), and the generic length scale (GLS) schemes. This was done for one temperate site in deep water in the Eastern Pacific and three shallow water sites in the Baltic Sea. The model reproduced the surface mixed layer depth reasonably well for all sites; however, the temperature fields were reproduced well for the deep site, but not for the shallow Baltic Sea sites. In the Baltic Sea, the models overmixed the water column after a few days. Vertical temperature diffusivities were higher than those observed and did not show the temporal fluctuations present in the observations. The best performance was by NN and MY; however, MY became unstable in two of the shallow simulations with high winds. The performance of GLS nearly as good as NN and MY. LMD had the poorest performance as it generated temperature diffusivities that were too high and induced too much mixing. Further observational comparisons are needed to evaluate the effects of different stratification and wind conditions and the limitations on the vertical mixing parameterizations.

  2. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

  3. EMMA model: an advanced operational mesoscale air quality model for urban and regional environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jose, R.S.; Rodriguez, M.A.; Cortes, E.; Gonzalez, R.M.

    1999-01-01

    Mesoscale air quality models are an important tool to forecast and analyse the air quality in regional and urban areas. In recent years an increased interest has been shown by decision makers in these types of software tools. The complexity of such a model has grown exponentially with the increase of computer power. Nowadays, medium workstations can run operational versions of these modelling systems successfully. Presents a complex mesoscale air quality model which has been installed in the Environmental Office of the Madrid community (Spain) in order to forecast accurately the ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide air concentrations in a 3D domain centred on Madrid city. Describes the challenging scientific matters to be solved in order to develop an operational version of the atmospheric mesoscale numerical pollution model for urban and regional areas (ANA). Some encouraging results have been achieved in the attempts to improve the accuracy of the predictions made by the version already installed. (Author)

  4. MHD modeling of coronal loops: the transition region throat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarrasi, M.; Reale, F.; Orlando, S.; Mignone, A.; Klimchuk, J. A.

    2014-04-01

    Context. The expansion of coronal loops in the transition region may considerably influence the diagnostics of the plasma emission measure. The cross-sectional area of the loops is expected to depend on the temperature and pressure, and might be sensitive to the heating rate. Aims: The approach here is to study the area response to slow changes in the coronal heating rate, and check the current interpretation in terms of steady heating models. Methods: We study the area response with a time-dependent 2D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) loop model, including the description of the expanding magnetic field, coronal heating and losses by thermal conduction, and radiation from optically thin plasma. We run a simulation for a loop 50 Mm long and quasi-statically heated to about 4 MK. Results: We find that the area can change substantially with the quasi-steady heating rate, e.g., by ~40% at 0.5 MK as the loop temperature varies between 1 MK and 4 MK, and, therefore, affects the interpretation of the differential emission measure vs. temperature (DEM(T)) curves. The movie associated to Fig. 4 is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  5. Multi-model Ensemble Regional Climate Projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, S.; IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2016-12-01

    In this study, the future change in precipitation due to global warming is investigated over the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM). A total of nine 30-year projections under multi-GCMs (CCSM, MPI, ACCESS) and multi-scenarios of emissions (Control, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are dynamically downscaled using the MRCM with 12km horizontal resolution. Since downscaled results tend to systematically overestimate the precipitation regardless of GCM used as lateral boundary conditions, the Parametric Quantile Mapping (PQM) is applied to reduce this wet bias. The cross validation for the control simulation shows that the PQM method seems to retain the spatial pattern and temporal variability of raw simulation, however it effectively reduce the wet bias. Based on ensemble projections produced by dynamical downscaling and statistical bias correction, a reduction of future precipitation is discernible, in particular during dry season (June-July-August). For example, intense precipitation in Singapore is expected to be reduced in RCP8.5 projection compared to control simulation. However, the geographical patterns and magnitude of changes still remain uncertain, suffering from statistical insignificance and a lack of model agreement. Acknowledgements This research is supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore under its Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise programme. The Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling is an interdisciplinary research group of the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology

  6. Barriers to knowledge spillovers and regional convergence in an evolutionary model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caniëls, M.C.J.; Verspagen, B.

    2001-01-01

    This paper will present a multi-region/multi-country model in which inter-regional knowledge spillovers determine the growth of regions. Key parameters in the model are the learning capability of a region and the rate of knowledge generation (R&D). The intensity of spillovers depends on geographical

  7. Fiducial-based registration with a touchable region model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungmin; Kazanzides, Peter

    2017-02-01

    Image-guided surgery requires registration between an image coordinate system and an intraoperative coordinate system that is typically referenced to a tracking device. In fiducial-based registration methods, this is achieved by localizing points (fiducials) in each coordinate system. Often, both localizations are performed manually, first by picking a fiducial point in the image and then by using a hand-held tracked pointer to physically touch the corresponding fiducial on the patient. These manual procedures introduce localization error that is user-dependent and can significantly decrease registration accuracy. Thus, there is a need for a registration method that is tolerant of imprecise fiducial localization in the preoperative and intraoperative phases. We propose the iterative closest touchable point (ICTP) registration framework, which uses model-based localization and a touchable region model. This method consists of three stages: (1) fiducial marker localization in image space, using a fiducial marker model, (2) initial registration with paired-point registration, and (3) fine registration based on the iterative closest point method. We perform phantom experiments with a fiducial marker design that is commonly used in neurosurgery. The results demonstrate that ICTP can provide accuracy improvements compared to the standard paired-point registration method that is widely used for surgical navigation and surgical robot systems, especially in cases where the surgeon introduces large localization errors. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can reduce the effect of the surgeon's localization performance on the accuracy of registration, thereby producing more consistent and less user-dependent registration outcomes.

  8. Approach of regional gravity field modeling from GRACE data for improvement of geoid modeling for Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroishi, Y.; Lemoine, F. G.; Rowlands, D. D.

    2006-12-01

    The latest gravimetric geoid model for Japan, JGEOID2004, suffers from errors at long wavelengths (around 1000 km) in a range of +/- 30 cm. The model was developed by combining surface gravity data with a global marine altimetric gravity model, using EGM96 as a foundation, and the errors at long wavelength are presumably attributed to EGM96 errors. The Japanese islands and their vicinity are located in a region of plate convergence boundaries, producing substantial gravity and geoid undulations in a wide range of wavelengths. Because of the geometry of the islands and trenches, precise information on gravity in the surrounding oceans should be incorporated in detail, even if the geoid model is required to be accurate only over land. The Kuroshio Current, which runs south of Japan, causes high sea surface variability, making altimetric gravity field determination complicated. To reduce the long-wavelength errors in the geoid model, we are investigating GRACE data for regional gravity field modeling at long wavelengths in the vicinity of Japan. Our approach is based on exclusive use of inter- satellite range-rate data with calibrated accelerometer data and attitude data, for regional or global gravity field recovery. In the first step, we calibrate accelerometer data in terms of scales and biases by fitting dynamically calculated orbits to GPS-determined precise orbits. The calibration parameters of accelerometer data thus obtained are used in the second step to recover a global/regional gravity anomaly field. This approach is applied to GRACE data obtained for the year 2005 and resulting global/regional gravity models are presented and discussed.

  9. Regional analyses of labor markets and demography: a model based Norwegian example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stambol, L S; Stolen, N M; Avitsland, T

    1998-01-01

    The authors discuss the regional REGARD model, developed by Statistics Norway to analyze the regional implications of macroeconomic development of employment, labor force, and unemployment. "In building the model, empirical analyses of regional producer behavior in manufacturing industries have been performed, and the relation between labor market development and regional migration has been investigated. Apart from providing a short description of the REGARD model, this article demonstrates the functioning of the model, and presents some results of an application." excerpt

  10. Interactive 3D computer model of the human corneolimbal region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molvaer, Rikke K; Andreasen, Arne; Heegaard, Steffen

    2013-01-01

    in the limbal region: limbal epithelial crypts (LECs), limbal crypts (LCs) and focal stromal projections (FSPs). In all, eight LECs, 25 LCs and 105 FSPs were identified in the limbal region. The LECs, LCs and FSPs were predominantly located in the superior limbal region with seven LECs, 19 LCs and 93 FSPs...

  11. Heat waves over Central Europe in regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan

    2014-05-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) have become a powerful tool for exploring impacts of global climate change on a regional scale. The aim of the study is to evaluate the capability of RCMs to reproduce characteristics of major heat waves over Central Europe in their simulations of the recent climate (1961-2000), with a focus on the most severe and longest Central European heat wave that occurred in 1994. We analyzed 7 RCM simulations with a high resolution (0.22°) from the ENSEMBLES project, driven by the ERA-40 reanalysis. In observed data (the E-OBS 9.0 dataset), heat waves were defined on the basis of deviations of daily maximum temperature (Tmax) from the 95% quantile of summer Tmax distribution in grid points over Central Europe. The same methodology was applied in the RCM simulations; we used corresponding 95% quantiles (calculated for each RCM and grid point) in order to remove the bias of modelled Tmax. While climatological characteristics of heat waves are reproduced reasonably well in the RCM ensemble, we found major deficiencies in simulating heat waves in individual years. For example, METNOHIRHAM simulated very severe heat waves in 1996, when no heat wave was observed. Focusing on the major 1994 heat wave, considerable differences in simulated temperature patterns were found among the RCMs. The differences in the temperature patterns were clearly linked to the simulated amount of precipitation during this event. The 1994 heat wave was almost absent in all RCMs that did not capture the observed precipitation deficit, while it was by far most pronounced in KNMI-RACMO that simulated virtually no precipitation over Central Europe during the 15-day period of the heat wave. By contrast to precipitation, values of evaporative fraction in the RCMs were not linked to severity of the simulated 1994 heat wave. This suggests a possible major contribution of other factors such as cloud cover and associated downward shortwave radiation. Therefore, a more detailed

  12. Simulating carbon exchange using a regional atmospheric model coupled to an advanced land-surface model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. W. Ter Maat

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a case study to investigate what the main controlling factors are that determine atmospheric carbon dioxide content for a region in the centre of The Netherlands. We use the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS, coupled with a land surface scheme simulating carbon, heat and momentum fluxes (SWAPS-C, and including also submodels for urban and marine fluxes, which in principle should include the dominant mechanisms and should be able to capture the relevant dynamics of the system. To validate the model, observations are used that were taken during an intensive observational campaign in central Netherlands in summer 2002. These include flux-tower observations and aircraft observations of vertical profiles and spatial fluxes of various variables.

    The simulations performed with the coupled regional model (RAMS-SWAPS-C are in good qualitative agreement with the observations. The station validation of the model demonstrates that the incoming shortwave radiation and surface fluxes of water and CO2 are well simulated. The comparison against aircraft data shows that the regional meteorology (i.e. wind, temperature is captured well by the model. Comparing spatially explicitly simulated fluxes with aircraft observed fluxes we conclude that in general latent heat fluxes are underestimated by the model compared to the observations but that the latter exhibit large variability within all flights. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate the relevance of the urban emissions of carbon dioxide for the carbon balance in this particular region. The same tests also show the relation between uncertainties in surface fluxes and those in atmospheric concentrations.

  13. The Challenge of Forecasting Metropolitan Growth: Urban Characteristics Based Models versus Regional Dummy Based Models

    OpenAIRE

    NA

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a study of errors in forecasting the population of Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the Primary MSAs of Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas and New England MAs. The forecasts are for the year 2000 and are based on a semi-structural model estimated by Mills and Lubelle using 1970 to 1990 census data on population, employment and relative real wages. This model allows the testing of regional effects on population and employment growth. The year 2000 forecasts are f...

  14. Designing and implementing a regional urban modeling system using the SLEUTH cellular urban model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jantz, Claire A.; Goetz, Scott J.; Donato, David I.; Claggett, Peter

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a fine-scale (30 meter resolution) regional land cover modeling system, based on the SLEUTH cellular automata model, that was developed for a 257000 km2 area comprising the Chesapeake Bay drainage basin in the eastern United States. As part of this effort, we developed a new version of the SLEUTH model (SLEUTH-3r), which introduces new functionality and fit metrics that substantially increase the performance and applicability of the model. In addition, we developed methods that expand the capability of SLEUTH to incorporate economic, cultural and policy information, opening up new avenues for the integration of SLEUTH with other land-change models. SLEUTH-3r is also more computationally efficient (by a factor of 5) and uses less memory (reduced 65%) than the original software. With the new version of SLEUTH, we were able to achieve high accuracies at both the aggregate level of 15 sub-regional modeling units and at finer scales. We present forecasts to 2030 of urban development under a current trends scenario across the entire Chesapeake Bay drainage basin, and three alternative scenarios for a sub-region within the Chesapeake Bay watershed to illustrate the new ability of SLEUTH-3r to generate forecasts across a broad range of conditions.

  15. Models of Russia's Participation in Regional Economic Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darya I. Ushkalova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses models and mechanisms of Russia's participation in integration processes in Post-Soviet space in recent years. The article examines the model of integration of Customs Union Common Economic Space Eurasian Economic Union and particular mechanisms of its realization. It also examines key challenges to further development of integration in the frameworks of Eurasian Economic Union including exhausting of short-term and medium-term integration effects against a background of low level of economic cooperation and the lack of effective mechanism of interest coordination and decisionmaking similar to qualified majority. It concludes that deterioration of mutual trade dynamics in Customs Union is determined by fundamental factors, first of all, exhausting of medium-term integration effects which lead to extension of mutual trade immediately after Customs Union creation but do not change its qualitative characteristics in long-term outlook. The author shows an absence of significant long-term integration effects which were based on increase of domestic market capacity due to a modification of economic structure. It is founded that appearance of such long-term integration effects is possible only in the context of coalescence of national economies at the microlevel based on development of system of communications between enterprises including intrasectoral industrial cooperation. The article also analyses results of realization of Russia's strategy of interaction with states beyond Eurasian Economic Union based on open regionalism concept. The paper presents recommendation on perfection of tools of integration in and outside Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, creation of system of decentralized organizations is proposed, for the implementation of specific cooperation projects in selected areas, taking into account the multiplier effect of such a "point-aimed" action/

  16. Hydrological modeling in semi-arid region using HEC-HMS model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of this study is to simulate rainfall-runoff in the semi-arid region of ... the frequency storm is used for the meteorological model, the SCS curve number is ... SCS unit hydrograph method have been applied to simulate the runoff rate.

  17. Mapping vegetation patterns in arable land using the models STICS and DAISY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heuer, Antje; Casper, Markus

    2010-05-01

    Several statistical methods exist to detect spatial and / or temporal variability with regard to ecological data-analysis: Semivariance-analysis, Trend surface analysis, Kriging, Voronoi polygons, Moran's I and Mantel-test, to mention just some of them. In this contribution, we concentrate on spatial vegetation patterns within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere (SVAT) system. Using variography, spatial analysis with a geographic information system and self-organizing maps, spatial patterns of yield have been isolated in an agro-ecosystem (see poster contribution EGU 2009, EGU2009-8948). Data were derived from two agricultural plots, each about 5 hectare, in the area of Newel, located in Western Palatinate, Germany. The plots have been conventionally cultivated with a crop rotation of winter rape, winter wheat and spring barley. The aim of the present study is to find out if the existing natural spatial patterns can be mapped by means of SVAT models. If so, the discretization of a landscape according to its spatial patterns could be the basis for parameterization of SVAT models in order to model soil-vegetation-atmosphere interaction over a large area, that is for up-scaling. For this purpose the SVAT models STICS (developed by INRA, France) and DAISY (developed at Tåstrup University, Denmark) are applied. After a wide sensitivity analysis both models are parameterized with field data according to the given situation of each of the detected spatial patterns. The results of the simulation per representative location of a pattern are validated first with field data concerning yield, soil water content and soil nitrogen; besides, above ground dry matter, root depth and specific stress indices are used for validation. The conclusions that can be made with regard to up-scaling are discussed in detail. In a second step the results of the STICS model are compared with those of the DAISY model to analyse the models' behaviour, to get further knowledge about the inner structure

  18. Pyrolysis Kinetic Modelling of Wheat Straw from the Pannonian Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Pešenjanski

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The pyrolysis/devolatilization is a basic step of thermochemical processes and requires fundamental characterization. In this paper, the kinetic model of pyrolysis is specified as a one-step global reaction. This type of reaction is used to describe the thermal degradation of wheat straw samples by measuring rates of mass loss of solid matter at a linear increase in temperature. The mentioned experiments were carried out using a derivatograph in an open-air environment. The influence of different factors was investigated, such as particle size, humidity levels, and the heating rate in the kinetics of devolatilization. As the measured values of mass loss and temperature functions transform in Arrhenius coordinates, the results are shown in the form of saddle curves. Such characteristics cannot be approximated with one equation in the form of Arrhenius law. For use in numerical applications, transformed functions can be approximated by linear regression for three separate intervals. Analysis of measurement resulting in granulation and moisture content variations shows that these factors have no significant influence. Tests of heating rate variations confirm the significance of this impact, especially in warmer regions. The influence of this factor should be more precisely investigated as a general variable, which should be the topic of further experiments.

  19. Modelling homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bizimana, Jean Pierre; Kienberger, Stefan; Hagenlocher, Michael; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel

    2016-03-31

    Despite the decline in malaria incidence due to intense interventions, potentials for malaria transmission persist in Rwanda. To eradicate malaria in Rwanda, strategies need to expand beyond approaches that focus solely on malaria epidemiology and also consider the socioeconomic, demographic and biological/disease-related factors that determine the vulnerability of potentially exposed populations. This paper analyses current levels of social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda by integrating a set of weighted vulnerability indicators. The paper uses regionalisation techniques as a spatially explicit approach for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria. This overcomes the limitations of administrative boundaries for modelling the trans-boundary social vulnerability to malaria. The utilised approach revealed high levels of social vulnerability to malaria in the highland areas of Rwanda, as well as in remote areas where populations are more susceptible. Susceptibility may be due to the populations' lacking the capacity to anticipate mosquito bites, or lacking resilience to cope with or recover from malaria infection. By highlighting the most influential indicators of social vulnerability to malaria, the applied approach indicates which vulnerability domains need to be addressed, and where appropriate interventions are most required. Interventions to improve the socioeconomic development in highly vulnerable areas could prove highly effective, and provide sustainable outcomes against malaria in Rwanda. This would ultimately increase the resilience of the population and their capacity to better anticipate, cope with, and recover from possible infection.

  20. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT THEORIES AND MODELS, A COMPARATIVE ANALYSE.CHALLENGE OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN ALBANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva\tDHIMITRI

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Local governance is a broad concept and is defined as the formulation and execution of collective action at the local level. The purpose of local government is to ensure effective and efficient use of public resources and service delivery at the level closest to citizens. Regional development is a new concept that aims to stimulate and diversify the economic activity of a country (region, to encourage investment in the private sector, to create a new jobs vacancy and improves living standards of the country. Regional development policies are a number of measures designed and promoted by the central and local administration, but the cooperation undertaken at the actors are in a different one, which included the private sector and civil society. At the center of these regional policies or practices is the use of efficient potential of each region, being particularly focused on business, means promoting the development of the new enterprises, promoting labor market and investment, improve the quality of environment, health , education and culture. Traditional objective of regional development policies is the reduction of territorial disparities for achieving a relative balance between economic and social levels of development in different areas in the national territory. Regional development is the actual task of local government units in Albania, and is one of the tasks and challenges of the future. Currently it takes a special importance in the context of European Union integration. Reforms have begun to change the system in 1990 in order to implement local democracy and decentralization principles that are present today. Inequalities that exist within the region and between them indicate that in some regions the economic potential is not being fully utilized, and that it reduces the overall performance in national level.

  1. Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: Numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergamasco, A.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.; Budgell, W.P.

    2005-01-01

    Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays-a non-glacial period-appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution 01 working group I, n and In to the Third Assessment Report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense water formation sites ad as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus, 13 (1961) 224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean Jeep convection and open-sea ire formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and

  2. Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

    2002-12-01

    There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human

  3. MODEL OF REGIONAL KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER: MAIN ACTORS, FRAMEWORK AND THEORY.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alla LEVITSKAIA

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses potential mechanism of regional knowledge transfer in region with poorly developed innovation infrastructure (the Autonomous Territorial Unit Gagauzia, Republic of Moldova through interactions between regional major players of the Regional Innovation System - the educational and research institutions, small and medium enterprises (SMEs and local authorities. Solution of this problem can be found in modern studies of territories innovation development through the clustering processes. Through the empirical study - innovation potential analysis of local SMEs - we proposed advantage mechanism which focused on the one type of knowledge cluster – Innovation and Educational Cluster. The symbiosis of entrepreneurs, government agencies, educational institutions and business service providers with the regional core - University, allows to increasing exchange flows of innovative knowledge between all members of the cluster and distributing them to the entire region and beyond. The results and proposals of this study formed the basis of the “Program of increasing the innovation potential of Gagauz SMEs”.

  4. Brookhaven Regional Energy Facility Siting Model (REFS): model development and application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meier, P.; Hobbs, B.; Ketcham, G.; McCoy, M.; Stern, R.

    1979-06-01

    A siting methodology developed specifically to bridge the gap between regional-energy-system scenarios and environmental transport models is documented. Development of the model is described in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 described the basic structure of such a model. Additional chapters on model development cover: generation, transmission, demand disaggregation, the interface to other models, computational aspects, the coal sector, water resource considerations, and air quality considerations. These subjects comprise Part I. Part II, Model Applications, covers: analysis of water resource constraints, water resource issues in the New York Power Pool, water resource issues in the New England Power Pool, water resource issues in the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland Power Pool, and a summary of water resource constraint analysis. (MCW)

  5. Amplitude Analysis and Modeling of Regional Phases in PNE Profiles in Northern Eurasia and Seismic Regionalization

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Morozov, Igor B; Li, Hongyan; Morozova, Elena; Duenow, Joel; Zheng, Haishan; Smithson, Scott B

    2006-01-01

    ... is necessary to use regional phases for nuclear test monitoring. Over the past decades, Russian scientists acquired a network of dense, linear, long range, three-component Deep Seismic Sounding (DSS...

  6. Use of regional climate models data for groundwater recharge modelling in Baltic artesian basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timuhins, A.; Klints, I.; Sennikovs, J.; Virbulis, J.

    2012-04-01

    Baltic artesian basin (BAB) covers about 480000 square kilometres. BAB includes territory of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, parts of Poland, Russia, Belarus and Baltic Sea. The closed hydrogeological mathematical model for the BAB is developed in University of Latvia and reference calculations made in steady state mode. No-flow boundary condition is applied on the bottom and side boundaries of BAB. Hydraulic head is fixed on the seabed and largest lakes, and along the main river lines. Main water supply wells also are presented in the model as a pointwise water extraction. Precipitation is the main source of the groundwater recharge in the BAB region. Infiltration parameterization is responsible for this water source in BAB model. During the early stage of calibration of BAB hydrogeological model an automatic calibration for the hydraulic conductivities of permeable layers and single infiltration rate was attempted. Performing BAB model calibration it was noted that the differences of calculated and observed hydraulic heads (used for calculating the calibration penalty function) can be reduced by introducing a spatially distributed infiltration model. The aim of the present study is improving of the infiltration model, as well as preserving a short computation time (several minutes) for the piezometric head. Direct solution of improvement of the infiltration would be a usage of the advanced hydrological models. However, an accurate hydrological model requires a lot of computational power. It should couple meteorological and hydrological parameters and requires additional calibration. The regional climate model (KNMI-RACMO2 25 km resolution) results from ENSEMBLES project are used for the spatially distributed infiltration field calculation. The infiltration field is constructed as weighted difference of 30 year averaged precipitation and evaporation fields. The weight value is calibrated and a considerable decrease of the value of penalty function of the groundwater

  7. Does Nudging Squelch the Extremes in Regional Climate Modeling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    An important question in regional climate downscaling is whether to constrain (nudge) the interior of the limited-area domain toward the larger-scale driving fields. Prior research has demonstrated that interior nudging can increase the skill of regional climate predictions origin...

  8. Uncertainty Categorization, Modeling, and Management for Regional Water Supply Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K. M.; AlSaati, A.; Alhassan, A.

    2016-12-01

    Many water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from growing demands, variability in supply and a changing climate. Short-term variation in water availability and demand; long-term uncertainty in climate, groundwater storage, and sectoral competition for water; and varying stakeholder perspectives on the impacts of water shortages make it difficult to assess the necessity of expensive infrastructure investments. We categorize these uncertainties on two dimensions: whether they are the result of stochastic variation or epistemic uncertainty, and whether the uncertainties can be described probabilistically or are deep uncertainties whose likelihood is unknown. We develop a decision framework that combines simulation for probabilistic uncertainty, sensitivity analysis for deep uncertainty and Bayesian decision analysis for uncertainties that are reduced over time with additional information. We apply this framework to two contrasting case studies - drought preparedness in Melbourne, Australia and fossil groundwater depletion in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia - to assess the impacts of different types of uncertainty on infrastructure decisions. Melbourne's water supply system relies on surface water, which is impacted by natural variation in rainfall, and a market-based system for managing water rights. Our results show that small, flexible investment increases can mitigate shortage risk considerably at reduced cost. Riyadh, by contrast, relies primarily on desalination for municipal use and fossil groundwater for agriculture, and a centralized planner makes allocation decisions. Poor regional groundwater measurement makes it difficult to know when groundwater pumping will become uneconomical, resulting in epistemic uncertainty. However, collecting more data can reduce the uncertainty, suggesting the need for different uncertainty modeling and management strategies in Riyadh than in Melbourne. We will categorize the two systems and propose appropriate

  9. The partial duration series method in regional index-flood modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    A regional index-flood method based on the partial duration series model is introduced. The model comprises the assumptions of a Poisson-distributed number of threshold exceedances and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes. The regional T-year event estimator is based on a regional...... estimator is superior to the at-site estimator even in extremely heterogenous regions, the performance of the regional estimator being relatively better in regions with a negative shape parameter. When the record length increases, the relative performance of the regional estimator decreases, but it is still...

  10. Experiments with a Regional Vector-Vorticity Model, and Comparison with Other Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konor, C. S.; Dazlich, D. A.; Jung, J.; Randall, D. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Vector-Vorticity Model (VVM) is an anelastic model with a unique dynamical core that predicts the three-dimensional vorticity instead of the three-dimensional momentum. The VVM is used in the CRMs of the Global Quasi-3D Multiscale Modeling Framework, which is discussed by Joon-Hee Jung and collaborators elsewhere in this session. We are updating the physics package of the VVM, replacing it with the physics package of the System for Atmosphere Modeling (SAM). The new physics package includes a double-moment microphysics, Mellor-Yamada turbulence, Monin-Obukov surface fluxes, and the RRTMG radiation parameterization. We briefly describe the VVM and show results from standard test cases, including TWP-ICE. We compare the results with those obtained using the earlier physics. We also show results from experiments on convection aggregation in radiative-convective equilibrium, and compare with those obtained using both SAM and the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS).

  11. Effect of model resolution on a regional climate model simulation over southeast Australia

    KAUST Repository

    Evans, J. P.; McCabe, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    Dynamically downscaling climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for use in impacts and adaptation research has become a common practice in recent years. In this study, the CSIRO Mk3.5 GCM is downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) to medium (50 km) and high (10 km) resolution over southeast Australia. The influence of model resolution on the present-day (1985 to 2009) modelled regional climate and projected future (2075 to 2099) changes are examined for both mean climate and extreme precipitation characteristics. Increasing model resolution tended to improve the simulation of present day climate, with larger improvements in areas affected by mountains and coastlines. Examination of circumstances under which increasing the resolution decreased performance revealed an error in the GCM circulation, the effects of which had been masked by the coarse GCM topography. Resolution modifications to projected changes were largest in regions with strong topographic and coastline influences, and can be large enough to change the sign of the climate change projected by the GCM. Known physical mechanisms for these changes included orographic uplift and low-level blocking of air-masses caused by mountains. In terms of precipitation extremes, the GCM projects increases in extremes even when the projected change in the mean was a decrease: but this was not always true for the higher resolution models. Thus, while the higher resolution RCM climate projections often concur with the GCM projections, there are times and places where they differ significantly due to their better representation of physical processes. It should also be noted that the model resolution can modify precipitation characteristics beyond just its mean value.

  12. Effect of model resolution on a regional climate model simulation over southeast Australia

    KAUST Repository

    Evans, J. P.

    2013-03-26

    Dynamically downscaling climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for use in impacts and adaptation research has become a common practice in recent years. In this study, the CSIRO Mk3.5 GCM is downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) to medium (50 km) and high (10 km) resolution over southeast Australia. The influence of model resolution on the present-day (1985 to 2009) modelled regional climate and projected future (2075 to 2099) changes are examined for both mean climate and extreme precipitation characteristics. Increasing model resolution tended to improve the simulation of present day climate, with larger improvements in areas affected by mountains and coastlines. Examination of circumstances under which increasing the resolution decreased performance revealed an error in the GCM circulation, the effects of which had been masked by the coarse GCM topography. Resolution modifications to projected changes were largest in regions with strong topographic and coastline influences, and can be large enough to change the sign of the climate change projected by the GCM. Known physical mechanisms for these changes included orographic uplift and low-level blocking of air-masses caused by mountains. In terms of precipitation extremes, the GCM projects increases in extremes even when the projected change in the mean was a decrease: but this was not always true for the higher resolution models. Thus, while the higher resolution RCM climate projections often concur with the GCM projections, there are times and places where they differ significantly due to their better representation of physical processes. It should also be noted that the model resolution can modify precipitation characteristics beyond just its mean value.

  13. Examining Interior Grid Nudging Techniques Using Two-Way Nesting in the WRF Model for Regional Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study evaluates interior nudging techniques using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modeling over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using a two-way nested configuration. NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Pro...

  14. Regional modeling of cadmium leaching to groundwater in the Kempen region, The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Grift, B.; Rozemeijer, J. C.; Griffioen, J.

    2003-01-01

    Sandy soils in the border area of Belgium and the Netherlands (the Kempen region), are heavily contaminated with cadmium and zinc by atmospheric deposition from nearby smelters. Leaching of heavy metals from the topsoil is a major risk for groundwater contamination. The sandy soils in the Kempen

  15. High-Resolution Regional Phase Attenuation Models of the Iranian Plateau and Surrounding Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-03

    crustal structure or sediment thickness across much of the Iranian plateau. The lone exception is the region between the central Zagros and the Lut block...L11303, 2007. Meunier, P., N. Hovius, and J. A. Haines, Topographic site effects and the location of earthquake induced landslides, Earth Planet . Sci

  16. Simulating carbon exchange using a regional atmospheric model coupled to an advanced land-surface model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ter Maat, H.W.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Miglietta, F.; Gioli, B.; Bosveld, F.C.; Vermeulen, A.T.; Fritsch, H.

    2010-08-01

    This paper is a case study to investigate what the main controlling factors are that determine atmospheric carbon dioxide content for a region in the centre of The Netherlands. We use the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS), coupled with a land surface scheme simulating carbon, heat and momentum fluxes (SWAPS-C), and including also submodels for urban and marine fluxes, which in principle should include the dominant mechanisms and should be able to capture the relevant dynamics of the system. To validate the model, observations are used that were taken during an intensive observational campaign in central Netherlands in summer 2002. These include flux-tower observations and aircraft observations of vertical profiles and spatial fluxes of various variables.

  17. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  18. Improving Shade Modelling in a Regional River Temperature Model Using Fine-Scale LIDAR Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, D. M.; Loicq, P.; Moatar, F.; Beaufort, A.; Melin, E.; Jullian, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Air temperature is often considered as a proxy of the stream temperature to model the distribution areas of aquatic species water temperature is not available at a regional scale. To simulate the water temperature at a regional scale (105 km²), a physically-based model using the equilibrium temperature concept and including upstream-downstream propagation of the thermal signal was developed and applied to the entire Loire basin (Beaufort et al., submitted). This model, called T-NET (Temperature-NETwork) is based on a hydrographical network topology. Computations are made hourly on 52,000 reaches which average 1.7 km long in the Loire drainage basin. The model gives a median Root Mean Square Error of 1.8°C at hourly time step on the basis of 128 water temperature stations (2008-2012). In that version of the model, tree shadings is modelled by a constant factor proportional to the vegetation cover on 10 meters sides the river reaches. According to sensitivity analysis, improving the shade representation would enhance T-NET accuracy, especially for the maximum daily temperatures, which are currently not very well modelized. This study evaluates the most efficient way (accuracy/computing time) to improve the shade model thanks to 1-m resolution LIDAR data available on tributary of the LoireRiver (317 km long and an area of 8280 km²). Two methods are tested and compared: the first one is a spatially explicit computation of the cast shadow for every LIDAR pixel. The second is based on averaged vegetation cover characteristics of buffers and reaches of variable size. Validation of the water temperature model is made against 4 temperature sensors well spread along the stream, as well as two airborne thermal infrared imageries acquired in summer 2014 and winter 2015 over a 80 km reach. The poster will present the optimal length- and crosswise scale to characterize the vegetation from LIDAR data.

  19. Nudging and predictability in regional climate modelling: investigation in a nested quasi-geostrophic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omrani, Hiba; Drobinski, Philippe; Dubos, Thomas

    2010-05-01

    In this work, we consider the effect of indiscriminate and spectral nudging on the large and small scales of an idealized model simulation. The model is a two layer quasi-geostrophic model on the beta-plane driven at its boundaries by the « global » version with periodic boundary condition. This setup mimics the configuration used for regional climate modelling. The effect of large-scale nudging is studied by using the "perfect model" approach. Two sets of experiments are performed: (1) the effect of nudging is investigated with a « global » high resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model driven by a low resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model. (2) similar simulations are conducted with the two layer quasi-geostrophic Limited Area Model (LAM) where the size of the LAM domain comes into play in addition to the first set of simulations. The study shows that the indiscriminate nudging time that minimizes the error at both the large and small scales is reached for a nudging time close to the predictability time, for spectral nudging, the optimum nudging time should tend to zero since the best large scale dynamics is supposed to be given by the driving large-scale fields are generally given at much lower frequency than the model time step(e,g, 6-hourly analysis) with a basic interpolation between the fields, the optimum nudging time differs from zero, however remaining smaller than the predictability time.

  20. CENOLOGIСAL MODEL OF THE REGION RESISTANCE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.N. Kuzminov

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses a new methodological approach the study and management of a regional market environment based on cenological patterns. As the target is determined by the need to ensure structural balance and sustainability. Research tools and management adopted by the species analysis, which provided a measure of public exposure in order to create a sustainable competitive business environment of the region

  1. Improved Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation by a Dynamical Coupling to a Hydrology Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens

    convective precipitation systems. As a result climate model simulations let alone future projections of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases. Here we show that the dynamical coupling of a regional climate model to a detailed fully distributed hydrological model - including groundwater-, overland...... of local precipitation dynamics are seen for time scales of app. Seasonal duration and longer. We show that these results can be attributed to a more complete treatment of land surface feedbacks. The local scale effect on the atmosphere suggests that coupled high-resolution climate-hydrology models...... including a detailed 3D redistribution of sub- and land surface water have a significant potential for improving climate projections even diminishing the need for bias correction in climate-hydrology studies....

  2. Introducing Subrid-scale Cloud Feedbacks to Radiation for Regional Meteorological and Cllimate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convection systems and associated cloudiness directly influence regional and local radiation budgets, and dynamics and thermodynamics through feedbacks. However, most subgrid-scale convective parameterizations in regional weather and climate models do not consider cumulus cloud ...

  3. Simplified two and fifty-one region state-based EEIO model comparison

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Supporting data for 2 region and 51 region models assessed in the manuscript "Exploring the relevance of spatial scale to life cycle inventory results using...

  4. Does temperature nudging overwhelm aerosol radiative effects in regional integrated climate models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    For over two decades, data assimilation (popularly known as nudging) methods have been used for improving regional weather and climate simulations by reducing model biases in meteorological parameters and processes. Similar practice is also popular in many regional integrated met...

  5. Wind and Photovoltaic Large-Scale Regional Models for hourly production evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinelli, Mattia; Maule, Petr; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2015-01-01

    This work presents two large-scale regional models used for the evaluation of normalized power output from wind turbines and photovoltaic power plants on a European regional scale. The models give an estimate of renewable production on a regional scale with 1 h resolution, starting from a mesosca...... of the transmission system, especially regarding the cross-border power flows. The tuning of these regional models is done using historical meteorological data acquired on a per-country basis and using publicly available data of installed capacity.......This work presents two large-scale regional models used for the evaluation of normalized power output from wind turbines and photovoltaic power plants on a European regional scale. The models give an estimate of renewable production on a regional scale with 1 h resolution, starting from a mesoscale...

  6. Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamasco, A.; Budgell, W. P.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.

    2005-03-01

    Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays--a non-glacial period--appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution of working group I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense-water formation sites act as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus131961224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air-sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean deep convection and open-sea ice formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and

  7. The impact of domestic trade on China's regional energy uses: A multi-regional input–output modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Bo; Chen, Z.M.; Xia, X.H.; Xu, X.Y.; Chen, Y.B.

    2013-01-01

    To systematically reveal how domestic trade impacts on China's regional energy uses, an interprovincial input–output modeling is carried out to address demand-derived energy requirements for the regional economies in 2007 based on the recently available data. Both the energy uses embodied in final demand and interregional trade are investigated from the regional and sectoral insights. Significant net transfers of embodied energy flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Shanxi is the largest energy producer and interregional embodied energy deficit receiver, in contrast to Guangdong as the largest energy user and surplus receiver. By considering the impacts of interregional trade, the energy uses of most eastern regions increase remarkably. For instance, Shanghai, Hainan, Zhejiang, Beijing, Jiangsu and Guangdong have their embodied energy requirements 87.49, 19.97, 13.64, 12.60, 6.46 and 6.38 times of their direct energy inputs, respectively. In contrast, the embodied energy uses of some central and western regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and Guizhou decrease largely. The results help understand the hidden network linkages of interregional embodied energy flows and provide critical insight to amend China's current end-reduction-oriented energy policies by addressing the problem of regional responsibility transfer. - Highlights: • Demand-derived energy requirements for China's regional economies are addressed. • Significant interregional transfers of embodied energy flows are identified. • Energy surpluses are obtained by 19 regions and deficits by the other 11 regions. • The eastern regions should take more responsibility for reducing China's energy uses

  8. Modelling of Asphalt Concrete Stiffness in the Linear Viscoelastic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazurek, Grzegorz; Iwański, Marek

    2017-10-01

    Stiffness modulus is a fundamental parameter used in the modelling of the viscoelastic behaviour of bituminous mixtures. On the basis of the master curve in the linear viscoelasticity range, the mechanical properties of asphalt concrete at different loading times and temperatures can be predicted. This paper discusses the construction of master curves under rheological mathematical models i.e. the sigmoidal function model (MEPDG), the fractional model, and Bahia and co-workers’ model in comparison to the results from mechanistic rheological models i.e. the generalized Huet-Sayegh model, the generalized Maxwell model and the Burgers model. For the purposes of this analysis, the reference asphalt concrete mix (denoted as AC16W) intended for the binder coarse layer and for traffic category KR3 (5×105 controlled strain mode. The fixed strain level was set at 25με to guarantee that the stiffness modulus of the asphalt concrete would be tested in a linear viscoelasticity range. The master curve was formed using the time-temperature superposition principle (TTSP). The stiffness modulus of asphalt concrete was determined at temperatures 10°C, 20°C and 40°C and at loading times (frequency) of 0.1, 0.3, 1, 3, 10, 20 Hz. The model parameters were fitted to the rheological models using the original programs based on the nonlinear least squares sum method. All the rheological models under analysis were found to be capable of predicting changes in the stiffness modulus of the reference asphalt concrete to satisfactory accuracy. In the cases of the fractional model and the generalized Maxwell model, their accuracy depends on a number of elements in series. The best fit was registered for Bahia and co-workers model, generalized Maxwell model and fractional model. As for predicting the phase angle parameter, the largest discrepancies between experimental and modelled results were obtained using the fractional model. Except the Burgers model, the model matching quality was

  9. Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in the Carpathian region based on an ENSEMBLE of regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gaál, Ladislav; Beranová, Romana; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14 ISSN 1687-9309 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014 http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2014/943487/

  10. SOCIAL CROWDFUNDING: A NEW MODEL FOR FINANCING REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana BERNARDINO

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Crowdfunding is an increasingly attractive source to fund social projects. However, to our best knowledge, the study of crowdfunding for social purposes has remained largely unexplored in the literature. This research envisages a detailed examination of the role of crowdfunding on the early-stage of the social projects at regional level. By comparing the characteristics of the projects available in the Portuguese Social Stock Exchange platform with others that did not use this source of financial support, we envisage to show the critical role of crowdfunding on regional development. The use of inferential techniques (Chi-square test, the Cramer’s V statistic, the Goodman and Kruskal λ and the odds ratio demonstrates that the use of the Portuguese Social Stock Exchange platform was linked to the geographical location of the social venture as well as its geographical scope. Also, social ventures located on rural regions are more likely to use social crowdfunding platforms than social ventures located in urban areas. Further, the circumstance of having the social ventures acting at a local or regional level seems to be strongly associated with the possibility of using crowdfunding for financing social projects.

  11. MULTIDIMENSIONAL MODELING TOOL OF POTENTIAL EVALUATION OF REGION DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Володимир Олександрович ТІМОФЄЄВ

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The results of Ukrainian research of western towns are proposed for evaluation of development potential of recreational tourism and the whole tourism industry. Socio-economic factors, climatic and natural factors, state and perspectives of infrastructure in the region, political and administrative stability were chosen as evaluation parameters. The conclusion was done concerning the obtained results of rating evaluation.

  12. THE MODELING OF DRUG ADDICTION PREVALENCE AND ITS CONSEQUENCES IN RUSSIAN REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.P. Sirotin

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The narcotization prevalence in Russia as whole and its regions is described. In order to provide the adequate models the clusters of regions on the level of their economic development are defined. For every group the regression model of drug addiction social distress is constructed. Modeling results allow to find the features of regions and the most significant factors determining the drug addiction prevalence.

  13. A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambaruch, R.; Salomonson, V. V.; Simmons, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.

  14. Medicanes in an ocean-atmosphere coupled regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhtar, N.; Brauch, J.; Dobler, A.; Béranger, K.; Ahrens, B.

    2014-08-01

    So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with medicanes threaten the highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. To reduce the risk of casualties and overall negative impacts, it is important to improve the understanding of medicanes with the use of numerical models. In this study, we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (1-D NEMO-MED12) to simulate medicanes. The aim of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model in simulating these extreme events. For this purpose, 11 historical medicane events are simulated using the atmosphere-only model, COSMO-CLM, and coupled model, with different setups (horizontal atmospheric grid spacings of 0.44, 0.22, and 0.08°; with/without spectral nudging, and an ocean grid spacing of 1/12°). The results show that at high resolution, the coupled model is able to not only simulate most of medicane events but also improve the track length, core temperature, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to the atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the coupled model is more proficient for systemic and detailed studies of historical medicane events, and that this model can be an effective tool for future projections.

  15. Regionalization of climate model results for the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauker, F.

    1999-07-01

    A dynamical downscaling is presented that allows an estimation of potential effects of climate change on the North Sea. Therefore, the ocean general circulation model OPYC is adapted for application on a shelf by adding a lateral boundary formulation and a tide model. In this set-up the model is forced, first, with data from the ECMWF reanalysis for model validation and the study of the natural variability, and, second, with data from climate change experiments to estimate the effects of climate change on the North Sea. (orig.)

  16. Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salciarini, D.; Godt, J.W.; Savage, W.Z.; Conversini, P.; Baum, R.L.; Michael, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.

  17. The Balance Model of Regional Development Management in Certain Territorial Conditions: Development and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voloshenko K.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article the authors detail the methodology of regional development forecasting with the balance method. They provide with an overview and assessment of the existing models and systems, and their use for the purposes of public administration at the regional level. The article underlines the need to develop a balance approach models for specific territorial conditions. In particular, the authors identify the possibilities of studying the connections between the proportions of material and cash flows within the regional system, and reconciling the needs of a regional economy with the production and resource potentials. The long-term sustainability balance model – a simulation of event-based forecasting – has been developed for the Russian exclave. The authors provide a general description of the balance model, its elements and simulation algorithm. The results of calculations using the balance model for forecasting regional development are provided for three alternative scenarios for the Kaliningrad region for the period until 2018.

  18. REGION AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT ON THE BASIS OF OPTIMIZATION MODELLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.P. Neganova

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The scientific substantiation of accommodation of an agricultural production of territorial divisions of region is a complex social-economic problem. The decision of this problem demands definition market-oriented criteria of an optimality. The author considers three criteria of optimality: maximum of profit; maximum of gross output without production costs and costs for soil fertility simple reproduction; maximum of marginal income. Conclusion is drawn that the best criterion of optimization of production is the maximum the marginal income (the marginal income without constant costs, which will raise economic and ecological efficiency of an agricultural production at all management levels. As a result of agricultural production optimization the Republic Bashkortostan will become self-provided and taking out (foodstuffs region of Russia. In this case the republic is capable to provide with food substances (protein, carbohydrates and etc. 5.8 – 6.5 million person. It exceeds a population of republic on 40 – 60 %.

  19. Estimasi Permintaan Agregat Regional Provinsi Jambi (Pendekatan Model Makro Ekonomi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huriyah

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The research objective was to analyzing fluctuations in aggregate demand growth variables are C, I, G, X, M and also regional gross domestic product for the year 1993-2010. To calculate and analyze some of the factors that affect the change of macro-regional components of aggregate demand in the years 1993-2010 Jambi Province. During the period 1993-2010 the economic growth rate Jambi average of 5 percent annually. Partially visible growth of household consumption by 23 percent investment by 18 per cent, 26 per cent of government spending, net exports of 43 percent. For calculate and analyze some factor that affect the change, here using regression equation with non log and log.

  20. Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models

    OpenAIRE

    Jahn, Malte

    2015-01-01

    Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational) economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in th...

  1. Modelling the hydrological behaviour of a coffee agroforestry basin in Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Gómez-Delgado

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The profitability of hydropower in Costa Rica is affected by soil erosion and sedimentation in dam reservoirs, which are in turn influenced by land use, infiltration and aquifer interactions with surface water. In order to foster the provision and payment for Hydrological Environmental Services (HES, a quantitative assessment of the impact of specific land uses on the functioning of drainage-basins is required. The present paper aims to study the water balance partitioning in a volcanic coffee agroforestry micro-basin (1 km2, steep slopes in Costa Rica, as a first step towards evaluating sediment or contaminant loads. The main hydrological processes were monitored during one year, using flume, eddy-covariance flux tower, soil water profiles and piezometers. A new Hydro-SVAT lumped model is proposed, that balances SVAT (Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer and basin-reservoir routines. The purpose of such a coupling was to achieve a trade-off between the expected performance of ecophysiological and hydrological models, which are often employed separately and at different spatial scales, either the plot or the basin. The calibration of the model to perform streamflow yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe (NS coefficient equal to 0.89 for the year 2009, while the validation of the water balance partitioning was consistent with the independent measurements of actual evapotranspiration (R2 = 0.79, energy balance closed independently, soil water content (R2 = 0.35 and water table level (R2 = 0.84. Eight months of data from 2010 were used to validate modelled streamflow, resulting in a NS = 0.75. An uncertainty analysis showed that the streamflow modelling was precise for nearly every time step, while a sensitivity analysis revealed which parameters mostly affected model precision, depending on the season. It was observed that 64% of the incident rainfall R flowed out of the basin as streamflow

  2. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tion and prediction of high impact severe weather systems. Such models ... mesoscale models can be run at cloud resolving resolutions (∼1km) ... J. Earth Syst. Sci. 117, No. ..... similar to climate drift, indicating that those error components are ...

  3. OtagoNet: One Region's Model for Virtual Schooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, Keryn; Pullar, Ken

    2013-01-01

    Virtual schools are increasingly common in New Zealand and internationally as schools are challenged to meet the needs of their students. This article presents a description of the distance-learning model used by a group of schools in rural Otago for the last decade. The leadership team and roles are described, and the funding model, which is…

  4. Accelerating transition dynamics in city regions: A qualitative modeling perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.J. Valkering (Pieter); Yücel, G. (Gönenç); Gebetsroither-Geringer, E. (Ernst); Markvica, K. (Karin); Meynaerts, E. (Erika); N. Frantzeskaki (Niki)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractIn this article, we take stock of the findings from conceptual and empirical work on the role of transition initiatives for accelerating transitions as input for modeling acceleration dynamics. We applied the qualitative modeling approach of causal loop diagrams to capture the dynamics

  5. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  6. Reopen parameter regions in two-Higgs doublet models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staub, Florian

    2018-01-01

    The stability of the electroweak potential is a very important constraint for models of new physics. At the moment, it is standard for Two-Higgs doublet models (THDM), singlet or triplet extensions of the standard model to perform these checks at tree-level. However, these models are often studied in the presence of very large couplings. Therefore, it can be expected that radiative corrections to the potential are important. We study these effects at the example of the THDM type-II and find that loop corrections can revive more than 50% of the phenomenological viable points which are ruled out by the tree-level vacuum stability checks. Similar effects are expected for other extension of the standard model.

  7. Towards a regional climate model coupled to a comprehensive hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, S. H.; Drews, M.; Christensen, J. H.; Butts, M. B.; Jensen, K. H.; Refsgaard, J.; Hydrological ModellingAssessing Climate Change Impacts At Different Scales (Hyacints)

    2010-12-01

    When planing new ground water abstractions wells, building areas, roads or other land use activities information about expected future groundwater table location for the lifetime of the construction may be critical. The life time of an abstraction well can be expected to be more than 50 years, while if for buildings may be up to 100 years or more. The construction of an abstraction well is expensive and it is important to know if clean groundwater is available for its expected life time. The future groundwater table is depending on the future climate. With climate change the hydrology is expected to change as well. Traditionally, this assessment has been done by driving hydrological models with output from a climate model. In this way feedback between the groundwater hydrology and the climate is neglected. Neglecting this feedback can lead to imprecise or wrong results. The goal of this work is to couple the regional climate model HIRHAM (Christensen et al. 2006) to the hydrological model MIKE SHE (Graham and Butts, 2006). The coupling exploits the new OpenMI technology that provides a standardized interface to define, describe and transfer data on a time step basis between software components that run simultaneously (Gregersen et al., 2007). HIRHAM runs on a UNIX platform whereas MIKE SHE and OpenMI are under WINDOWS. Therefore the first critical task has been to develop an effective communication link between the platforms. The first step towards assessing the coupled models performance are addressed by looking at simulated land-surface atmosphere feedback through variables such as evapotranspiration, sensible heat flux and soil moisture content. Christensen, O.B., Drews, M., Christensen, J.H., Dethloff, K., Ketelsen, K., Hebestadt, I. and Rinke, A. (2006) The HIRHAM Regional Climate Model. Version 5; DMI Scientific Report 0617. Danish Meteorological Institute. Graham, D.N. and Butts, M.B. (2005) Flexible, integrated watershed modelling with MIKE SHE, In

  8. Impacts of regional land-grab on regional hydroclimate in southeastern Africa via modeling and remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksimowicz, M.; Masarik, M. T.; Brandt, J.; Flores, A. N.

    2017-12-01

    Land use/land cover (LULC) change directly impacts the partitioning of surface mass and energy fluxes. Regional-scale weather and climate are potentially altered by LULC if the resultant changes in partitioning of surface energy fluxes are significant enough to induce changes in the evolution of the planetary boundary layer and its interaction with the atmosphere above. Dynamics of land use, particularly those related to the social dimensions of the Earth System, are often simplified or not represented in regional land-atmosphere models or Earth System Models. This study explores the role of LULC change on a regional hydroclimate system, focusing on potential hydroclimate changes arising from timber harvesting due to a land grab boom in Mozambique. We also focus more narrowly at quantifying regional impacts on Gorongosa National Park, a nationally important economic and biodiversity resource in southeastern Africa. After nationalizing all land in 1975 after Mozambique gained independence, complex social processes, including an extended low intensity conflict civil war and economic hardships, led to an escalation of land use rights grants to foreign governments. Between 2004 and 2009, large tracts of land were requested for timber. Here we use existing tree cover loss datasets to more accurately represent land cover within a regional weather model. LULC in a region encompassing Gorongosa is updated at three instances between 2001 and 2014 using a tree cover loss dataset. We use these derived LULC datasets to inform lower boundary conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To quantify potential hydrometeorological changes arising from land use change, we performed a factorial-like experiment by mixing input LULC maps and atmospheric forcing data from before, during, and after the land grab. Results suggest that the land grab has impacted microclimate parameters in a significant way via direct and indirect impacts on land-atmosphere interactions

  9. A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummukainen, M.; Räisänen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willén, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C.

    This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results.

  10. A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M.; Raeisaenen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willen, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C. [Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    2001-03-01

    This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results. (orig.)

  11. Computational modeling of elastic properties of carbon nanotube/polymer composites with interphase regions. Part II: Mechanical modeling

    KAUST Repository

    Han, Fei; Azdoud, Yan; Lubineau, Gilles

    2014-01-01

    We present two modeling approaches for predicting the macroscopic elastic properties of carbon nanotubes/polymer composites with thick interphase regions at the nanotube/matrix frontier. The first model is based on local continuum mechanics

  12. Networks and Innovation: An Economic Model for European Regions (2002-2006)

    OpenAIRE

    Alfonso Badiola; Pedro Casares-Hontañón; Pablo Coto-Millán; Miguel Ángel Pesquera

    2012-01-01

    This research provides a new theoretical approach to innovation. The work also provides data processed in recent years (2002-2006) to regions of European regions, providing relevant empirical evidence on the relationship between Human Capital, Technological Capital, Innovation Capital, Network Capital and Innovation. In econometric modeling is considered especially for the regions of the European Union.

  13. Toward the Development of a Cold Regions Regional-Scale Hydrologic Model, Final Project Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinzman, Larry D [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Bolton, William Robert [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Young-Robertson, Jessica (Cable) [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2018-01-02

    This project improves meso-scale hydrologic modeling in the boreal forest by: (1) demonstrating the importance of capturing the heterogeneity of the landscape using small scale datasets for parameterization for both small and large basins; (2) demonstrating that in drier parts of the landscape and as the boreal forest dries with climate change, modeling approaches must consider the sensitivity of simulations to soil hydraulic parameters - such as residual water content - that are usually held constant. Thus, variability / flexibility in residual water content must be considered for accurate simulation of hydrologic processes in the boreal forest; (3) demonstrating that assessing climate change impacts on boreal forest hydrology through multiple model integration must account for direct effects of climate change (temperature and precipitation), and indirect effects from climate impacts on landscape characteristics (permafrost and vegetation distribution). Simulations demonstrated that climate change will increase runoff, but will increase ET to a greater extent and result in a drying of the landscape; and (4) vegetation plays a significant role in boreal hydrologic processes in permafrost free areas that have deciduous trees. This landscape type results in a decoupling of ET and precipitation, a tight coupling of ET and temperature, low runoff, and overall soil drying.

  14. Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

    KAUST Repository

    Srinivas, C. V.; Hari Prasad, D.; Bhaskar Rao, D. V.; Baskaran, R.; Venkatraman, B.

    2015-01-01

    data over seven climate zones (perhumid, humid, dry/moist, subhumid, dry/moist, semiarid and arid) of India to see whether dynamical downscaling using a regional model yields advantages over just using large-scale model predictions. Results show

  15. Modeling Ontario regional electricity system demand using a mixed fixed and random coefficients approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hsiao, C.; Mountain, D.C.; Chan, M.W.L.; Tsui, K.Y. (University of Southern California, Los Angeles (USA) McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada) Chinese Univ. of Hong Kong, Shatin)

    1989-12-01

    In examining the municipal peak and kilowatt-hour demand for electricity in Ontario, the issue of homogeneity across geographic regions is explored. A common model across municipalities and geographic regions cannot be supported by the data. Considered are various procedures which deal with this heterogeneity and yet reduce the multicollinearity problems associated with regional specific demand formulations. The recommended model controls for regional differences assuming that the coefficients of regional-seasonal specific factors are fixed and different while the coefficients of economic and weather variables are random draws from a common population for any one municipality by combining the information on all municipalities through a Bayes procedure. 8 tabs., 41 refs.

  16. First-order regional seismotectonic model for South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Singh, M

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A first-order seismotectonic model was created for South Africa. This was done using four logical steps: geoscientific data collection, characterisation, assimilation and zonation. Through the definition of subunits of concentrations of earthquake...

  17. Evaluation process radiological in ternopil region method of box models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    І.В. Матвєєва

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available  Results of radionuclides Sr-90 flows analyses in the ecosystem of Kotsubinchiky village of Ternopolskaya oblast were analyzed. The block-scheme of ecosystem and its mathematical model using the box models method were made. It allowed us to evaluate the ways of dose’s loadings formation of internal irradiation for miscellaneous population groups – working people, retirees, children, and also to prognose the dynamic of these loadings during the years after the Chernobyl accident.

  18. Establishment of modified reversible regional cerebral ischemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji Xunming; Ling Feng; Zhao Xiqing; Xuan Yun; Wang Yueqin; Ling Xiaolan; Chang Hongjun; Zhang Zhiping

    2005-01-01

    Objective: Modifying the method of establishing reversible middle cerebral ischemic models in rats for improvement of the stability and rate of success, so as to raise the reliability of cerebral ischemic study. Methods: Sixty male Wistar rats were randomly divided into two groups, modified and control groups, 30 rats in each group. The method of silicone- tipping on one end of the nylon suture was used to modify the establishment of embolus, and tip-heating method was used to establish the traditional embolus with all the other steps of the procedure just the same. The Zea Longa 5 scoring scale was used to estimate the neurological deficiency while TTC staining method was used to measure and calculate the volume of cerebral infarction. The percentage of successful models with 3-4 grade scorings and the coefficient of the variations of cerebral infarct volume were used to estimate the stability of the models. Results: The rate of success of establishment models in the modification group was significantly higher in comparing with the traditional group (93% vs 60%, χ 2 =9.32, P=0.002). The percentage of model establishment with 3-4 grade neurological scores in modification group was higher than that in the traditional group 96.4% vs 61.2%, χ 2 =9.51, P=0.002). The cerebral infarct volume in modification group and traditional group were (4.1450±0.5019) cm 3 and (3.8435 ± 0.8164) cm 3 , and the coefficients of variation were 12.01% and 21.24% respectively, which indicated that the stability of models was significantly higher in modification group than in the traditional one. Conclusions: The rates of success and stability of the models for reversible focal cerebral ischemia made by the modification method were significantly improved, with decreasing the cost of model creation and increasing the accuracy of study of ischemic cerebral vascular disease. (authors)

  19. Use of the optical model in the actinide region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salvy, J.

    1985-11-01

    This paper reviews current methods as well as recent developments in the use of optical model for calculating actinide nuclear data in the incident neutron energy range from 10 keV to 20 MeV. Special consideration is given of the general role of the model, parameterization procedures with taking account of nuclear deformations, parameters sets to be recommended, and some utilization problems [fr

  20. A Coupled fcGCM-GCE Modeling System: A 3D Cloud Resolving Model and a Regional Scale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2005-01-01

    Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and ore sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (21CE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicity calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generation regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A Brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications), and (4) The characteristics of the four-dimensional cloud data

  1. Review of regional economic models with special reference to labor impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferris, G.; Mason, B.

    1979-06-01

    This paper reviews several regional economic models and examines the capabilities of these models for assessing the total employment impacts of solar energy adoption. Five generic analytic methods are discussed: economic base analysis, shift-share analysis, demographic-economic interaction models, input-output analysis, and industrial location analysis. Ten regional models incorporating some aspect of these methods are reviewed. From the model review, the conclusion is drawn that there is no single model that fits all of the necessary criteria for planned research efforts. Models that appear to hold promise are the Economic Activity Analysis (EAA) Model, the Regional Industrial Multipliers System (RIMS), the Multiregion, Multi-industry (MRMI) Model, and the MULTIREGION model.

  2. Modelling cloud effects on ozone on a regional scale : A case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matthijsen, J.; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Meijer, E.W.; Boersen, G.

    1997-01-01

    We have investigated the influence of clouds on ozone on a regional scale (Europe) with a regional scale photochemical dispersion model (LOTOS). The LOTOS-model calculates ozone and other photo-oxidant concentrations in the lowest three km of the troposphere, using actual meteorologic data and

  3. Crop Yield Simulations Using Multiple Regional Climate Models in the Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stack, D.; Kafatos, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Walko, R. L.

    2013-12-01

    Agricultural productivity (described by crop yield) is strongly dependent on climate conditions determined by meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation). California is the largest producer of agricultural products in the United States, but crops in associated arid and semi-arid regions live near their physiological limits (e.g., in hot summer conditions with little precipitation). Thus, accurate climate data are essential in assessing the impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States and other arid regions. To address this issue, we produced simulated climate datasets and used them as input for the crop production model. For climate data, we employed two different regional climate models (WRF and OLAM) using a fine-resolution (8km) grid. Performances of the two different models are evaluated in a fine-resolution regional climate hindcast experiment for 10 years from 2001 to 2010 by comparing them to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Based on this comparison, multi-model ensembles with variable weighting are used to alleviate model bias and improve the accuracy of crop model productivity over large geographic regions (county and state). Finally, by using a specific crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings from the multi-regional climate model ensemble, we demonstrate the degree to which maize yields are sensitive to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States.

  4. A Comparison of Moment Rates for the Eastern Mediterranean Region from Competitive Kinematic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, E. C.; Ozeren, M. S.; Shen-Tu, B.; Galgana, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Relatively continuous, complex, and long-lived episodes of tectonic deformation gradually shaped the lithosphere of the eastern Mediterranean region into its present state. This large geodynamically interconnected and seismically active region absorbs, accumulates and transmits strains arising from stresses associated with: (1) steady northward convergence of the Arabian and African plates; (2) differences in lithospheric gravitational potential energy; and (3) basal tractions exerted by subduction along the Hellenic and Cyprus Arcs. Over the last twenty years, numerous kinematic models have been built using a variety of assumptions to take advantage of the extensive and dense GPS observations made across the entire region resulting in a far better characterization of the neotectonic deformation field than ever previously achieved. In this study, three separate horizontal strain rate field solutions obtained from three, region-wide, GPS only based kinematic models (i.e., a regional block model, a regional continuum model, and global continuum model) are utilized to estimate the distribution and uncertainty of geodetic moment rates within the eastern Mediterranean region. The geodetic moment rates from each model are also compared with seismic moment release rates gleaned from historic earthquake data. Moreover, kinematic styles of deformation derived from each of the modeled horizontal strain rate fields are examined for their degree of correlation with earthquake rupture styles defined by proximal centroid moment tensor solutions. This study suggests that significant differences in geodetically obtained moment rates from competitive kinematic models may introduce unforeseen bias into regularly updated, geodetically constrained, regional seismic hazard assessments.

  5. A Multi-Region Model of Economic Growth with Human Capital and Negative Externalities in Innovation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

    2013-01-01

    We use a multi-region model and provide the first theoretical analysis of the effects of human capital use and a particular kind of innovative activity on economic growth. In each of the N heterogeneous regions in our model, consumers have constant relative risk aversion preferences, there are

  6. Modelling the regional application of stakeholder identified land management strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, B. J.; Fleskens, L.; Kirkby, M. J.

    2012-04-01

    The DESIRE project has trialled a series of sustainable land management (SLM) technologies. These technologies have been identified as being beneficial in mitigating land degradation by local stakeholders from a range of semi-arid study sites. The field results and the qualitative WOCAT technology assessment ftom across the study sites have been used to develop the adapted PESERA SLM model. This paper considers the development of the adapted PESERA SLM model and the potential for applying locally successful SLM technologies across a wider range of climatic and environmental conditions with respect to degradation risk, biomass production and the investment cost interface (PESERA/DESMICE). The integrate PESERA/DESMICE model contributes to the policy debate by providing a biophysical and socio-economic assessment of technology and policy scenarios.

  7. Sensitivity model study of regional mercury dispersion in the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gencarelli, Christian N.; Bieser, Johannes; Carbone, Francesco; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Matthias, Volker; Travnikov, Oleg; Yang, Xin; Pirrone, Nicola

    2017-01-01

    Atmospheric deposition is the most important pathway by which Hg reaches marine ecosystems, where it can be methylated and enter the base of food chain. The deposition, transport and chemical interactions of atmospheric Hg have been simulated over Europe for the year 2013 in the framework of the Global Mercury Observation System (GMOS) project, performing 14 different model sensitivity tests using two high-resolution three-dimensional chemical transport models (CTMs), varying the anthropogenic emission datasets, atmospheric Br input fields, Hg oxidation schemes and modelling domain boundary condition input. Sensitivity simulation results were compared with observations from 28 monitoring sites in Europe to assess model performance and particularly to analyse the influence of anthropogenic emission speciation and the Hg0(g) atmospheric oxidation mechanism. The contribution of anthropogenic Hg emissions, their speciation and vertical distribution are crucial to the simulated concentration and deposition fields, as is also the choice of Hg0(g) oxidation pathway. The areas most sensitive to changes in Hg emission speciation and the emission vertical distribution are those near major sources, but also the Aegean and the Black seas, the English Channel, the Skagerrak Strait and the northern German coast. Considerable influence was found also evident over the Mediterranean, the North Sea and Baltic Sea and some influence is seen over continental Europe, while this difference is least over the north-western part of the modelling domain, which includes the Norwegian Sea and Iceland. The Br oxidation pathway produces more HgII(g) in the lower model levels, but overall wet deposition is lower in comparison to the simulations which employ an O3 / OH oxidation mechanism. The necessity to perform continuous measurements of speciated Hg and to investigate the local impacts of Hg emissions and deposition, as well as interactions dependent on land use and vegetation, forests, peat

  8. Functional inverted Wishart for Bayesian multivariate spatial modeling with application to regional climatology model data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, L L; Szczesniak, R D; Wang, X

    2017-11-01

    Modern environmental and climatological studies produce multiple outcomes at high spatial resolutions. Multivariate spatial modeling is an established means to quantify cross-correlation among outcomes. However, existing models typically suffer from poor computational efficiency and lack the flexibility to simultaneously estimate auto- and cross-covariance structures. In this article, we undertake a novel construction of covariance by utilizing spectral convolution and by imposing an inverted Wishart prior on the cross-correlation structure. The cross-correlation structure with this functional inverted Wishart prior flexibly accommodates not only positive but also weak or negative associations among outcomes while preserving spatial resolution. Furthermore, the proposed model is computationally efficient and produces easily interpretable results, including the individual autocovariances and full cross-correlation matrices, as well as a partial cross-correlation matrix reflecting the outcome correlation after excluding the effects caused by spatial convolution. The model is examined using simulated data sets under different scenarios. It is also applied to the data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program, examining long-term associations between surface outcomes for air temperature, pressure, humidity, and radiation, on the land area of the North American West Coast. Results and predictive performance are compared with findings from approaches using convolution only or coregionalization.

  9. Model Consistent Pseudo-Observations of Precipitation and Their Use for Bias Correcting Regional Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Berg

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lack of suitable observational data makes bias correction of high space and time resolution regional climate models (RCM problematic. We present a method to construct pseudo-observational precipitation data bymerging a large scale constrained RCMreanalysis downscaling simulation with coarse time and space resolution observations. The large scale constraint synchronizes the inner domain solution to the driving reanalysis model, such that the simulated weather is similar to observations on a monthly time scale. Monthly biases for each single month are corrected to the corresponding month of the observational data, and applied to the finer temporal resolution of the RCM. A low-pass filter is applied to the correction factors to retain the small spatial scale information of the RCM. The method is applied to a 12.5 km RCM simulation and proven successful in producing a reliable pseudo-observational data set. Furthermore, the constructed data set is applied as reference in a quantile mapping bias correction, and is proven skillful in retaining small scale information of the RCM, while still correcting the large scale spatial bias. The proposed method allows bias correction of high resolution model simulations without changing the fine scale spatial features, i.e., retaining the very information required by many impact models.

  10. Functional inverted Wishart for Bayesian multivariate spatial modeling with application to regional climatology model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, L. L.; Szczesniak, R. D.; Wang, X.

    2018-01-01

    Modern environmental and climatological studies produce multiple outcomes at high spatial resolutions. Multivariate spatial modeling is an established means to quantify cross-correlation among outcomes. However, existing models typically suffer from poor computational efficiency and lack the flexibility to simultaneously estimate auto- and cross-covariance structures. In this article, we undertake a novel construction of covariance by utilizing spectral convolution and by imposing an inverted Wishart prior on the cross-correlation structure. The cross-correlation structure with this functional inverted Wishart prior flexibly accommodates not only positive but also weak or negative associations among outcomes while preserving spatial resolution. Furthermore, the proposed model is computationally efficient and produces easily interpretable results, including the individual autocovariances and full cross-correlation matrices, as well as a partial cross-correlation matrix reflecting the outcome correlation after excluding the effects caused by spatial convolution. The model is examined using simulated data sets under different scenarios. It is also applied to the data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program, examining long-term associations between surface outcomes for air temperature, pressure, humidity, and radiation, on the land area of the North American West Coast. Results and predictive performance are compared with findings from approaches using convolution only or coregionalization. PMID:29576735

  11. Identification of ischemic regions in a rat model of stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popp, Anke; Jaenisch, Nadine; Witte, Otto W; Frahm, Christiane

    2009-01-01

    Investigations following stroke first of all require information about the spatio-temporal dimension of the ischemic core as well as of perilesional and remote affected tissue. Here we systematically evaluated regions differently impaired by focal ischemia. Wistar rats underwent a transient 30 or 120 min suture-occlusion of the middle cerebral artery (MCAO) followed by various reperfusion times (2 h, 1 d, 7 d, 30 d) or a permanent MCAO (1 d survival). Brains were characterized by TTC, thionine, and immunohistochemistry using MAP2, HSP72, and HSP27. TTC staining reliably identifies the infarct core at 1 d of reperfusion after 30 min MCAO and at all investigated times following 120 min and permanent MCAO. Nissl histology denotes the infarct core from 2 h up to 30 d after transient as well as permanent MCAO. Absent and attenuated MAP2 staining clearly identifies the infarct core and perilesional affected regions at all investigated times, respectively. HSP72 denotes perilesional areas in a limited post-ischemic time (1 d). HSP27 detects perilesional and remote impaired tissue from post-ischemic day 1 on. Furthermore a simultaneous expression of HSP72 and HSP27 in perilesional neurons was revealed. TTC and Nissl staining can be applied to designate the infarct core. MAP2, HSP72, and HSP27 are excellent markers not only to identify perilesional and remote areas but also to discriminate affected neuronal and glial populations. Moreover markers vary in their confinement to different reperfusion times. The extent and consistency of infarcts increase with prolonged occlusion of the MCA. Therefore interindividual infarct dimension should be precisely assessed by the combined use of different markers as described in this study.

  12. Integrated Multimedia Modeling System Response to Regional Land Management Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    A multi-media system of nitrogen and co-pollutant models describing critical physical and chemical processes that cascade synergistically and competitively through the environment, the economy and society has been developed at the USEPA Office of research and development. It is ...

  13. On Regional Modeling to Support Air Quality Policies (book chapter)

    Science.gov (United States)

    We examine the use of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model in simulating the changes in the extreme values of air quality that are of interest to the regulatory agencies. Year-to-year changes in ozone air quality are attributable to variations in the prevailing meteo...

  14. Helicity of Solar Active Regions from a Dynamo Model Piyali ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    - tions with positive and negative helicities are denoted by '+' and 'o' respectively. A flux eruption takes place in our model whenever the toroidal field at the bottom of the SCZ exceeds a critical value. Whenever an eruption takes place in our ...

  15. Model for analyzing demand for low-level waste transport containers - regionalized and non-regionalized scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, A.J.; Rose, K.

    1982-01-01

    Certain types of low-level radioactive waste (LLW) must be shipped in expensive special containers. It is therefore desirable to keep container utilization high. There must be a stock of containers sufficient to ship waste in a timely fashion, but one does not want to have containers sitting idle a significant fraction of the time. A computerized discrete event network model has been developed and is described in this report. The model allows an analyst to determine the effects of varying the increase in LLW, establishment of regional disposal, etc. on requirements for shipping containers

  16. Regionalization of climate model results for the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauker, F. [Alfred-Wegener-Institut fuer Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven (Germany); Storch, H. von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    2000-07-01

    A dynamical downscaling for the North Sea is presented. The numerical model used for the study is the coupled ice-ocean model OPYC. In a hindcast of the years 1979 to 1993 it was forced with atmospheric forcing of the ECMWF reanalysis. The models capability in simulating the observed mean state and variability in the North Sea is demonstrated by the hindcast. Two time scale ranges, from weekly to seasonal and the longer-than-seasonal time scales are investigated. Shorter time scales, for storm surges, are not captured by the model formulation. The main modes of variability of sea level, sea-surface circulation, sea-surface temperature, and sea-surface salinity are described and connections to atmospheric phenomena, like the NAO, are discussed. T106 ''time-slice'' simulations with a ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' horizon are used to estimate the effects of a changing climate on the shelf sea ''North Sea''. The ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' changes in the surface forcing are accompanied by changes in the lateral oceanic boundary conditions taken from a global coupled climate model. For ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' the time mean sea level increases up to 25 cm in the German Bight in the winter, where 15 cm are due to the surface forcing and 10 cm due to thermal expansion. This change is compared to the ''natural'' variability as simulated in the ECMWF integration and found to be not outside the range spanned by it. The variability of sea level on the weekly-to-seasonal time-scales is significantly reduced in the scenario integration. The variability on the longer-than-seasonal time-scales in the control and scenario runs is much smaller then in the ECMWF integration. This is traced back to the use of ''time-slice'' experiments. Discriminating between locally forced changes and changes induced at the lateral oceanic boundaries of the model in the circulation and

  17. Continuous dynamic assimilation of the inner region data in hydrodynamics modelling: optimization approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. I. Pisnitchenko

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available In meteorological and oceanological studies the classical approach for finding the numerical solution of the regional model consists in formulating and solving a Cauchy-Dirichlet problem. The boundary conditions are obtained by linear interpolation of coarse-grid data provided by a global model. Errors in boundary conditions due to interpolation may cause large deviations from the correct regional solution. The methods developed to reduce these errors deal with continuous dynamic assimilation of known global data available inside the regional domain. One of the approaches of this assimilation procedure performs a nudging of large-scale components of regional model solution to large-scale global data components by introducing relaxation forcing terms into the regional model equations. As a result, the obtained solution is not a valid numerical solution to the original regional model. Another approach is the use a four-dimensional variational data assimilation procedure which is free from the above-mentioned shortcoming. In this work we formulate the joint problem of finding the regional model solution and data assimilation as a PDE-constrained optimization problem. Three simple model examples (ODE Burgers equation, Rossby-Oboukhov equation, Korteweg-de Vries equation are considered in this paper. Numerical experiments indicate that the optimization approach can significantly improve the precision of the regional solution.

  18. Variability of effects of spatial climate data aggregation on regional yield simulation by crop models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoffmann, H.; Zhao, G.; Bussel, van L.G.J.

    2015-01-01

    Field-scale crop models are often applied at spatial resolutions coarser than that of the arable field. However, little is known about the response of the models to spatially aggregated climate input data and why these responses can differ across models. Depending on the model, regional yield

  19. Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe : Current status and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baklanov, A.; Schlünzen, K.; Suppan, P.; Baldasano, J.; Brunner, D.; Aksoyoglu, S.; Carmichael, G.; Douros, J.; Flemming, J.; Forkel, R.; Galmarini, S.; Gauss, M.; Grell, G.; Hirtl, M.; Joffre, S.; Jorba, O.; Kaas, E.; Kaasik, M.; Kallos, G.; Kong, X.; Korsholm, U.; Kurganskiy, A.; Kushta, J.; Lohmann, U.; Mahura, A.; Manders-Groot, A.; Maurizi, A.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Rao, S.T.; Savage, N.; Seigneur, C.; Sokhi, R.S.; Solazzo, E.; Solomos, S.; Sørensen, B.; Tsegas, G.; Vignati, E.; Vogel, B.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-01-01

    Online coupled mesoscale meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and regional climate modelling as they can consider

  20. Looking Forward: Using Scenario Modeling to Support Regional Land Use Planning in Northern Yukon, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawn R. Francis

    2011-12-01

    We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.

  1. Conceptual design of a regional water quality screening model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, M.J.

    1981-01-01

    This water quality assessment methodology is intended to predict concentrations at future times and to estimate the impacts on water quality of energy-related activities (including industrial boilers). Estimates of impacts on water quality at future times are based on incremental changes in pollutant inputs to the body water. Important features of the model are: use of measured concentrations to account for existing conditions; consideration of incremental changes in pollutant loads; emphasis on the energy sector and industrial boilers; analysis restricted to streams only; no attempt to fully account for pollutant behavior; and flexible design, so that future improvements can be incorporated. The basic approach is very similar to the one used by Argonne's ARQUAL model but will allow more complex pollutant behavior and more flexibility in use

  2. Regional differences in prediction models of lung function in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schäper Christoph

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known about the influencing potential of specific characteristics on lung function in different populations. The aim of this analysis was to determine whether lung function determinants differ between subpopulations within Germany and whether prediction equations developed for one subpopulation are also adequate for another subpopulation. Methods Within three studies (KORA C, SHIP-I, ECRHS-I in different areas of Germany 4059 adults performed lung function tests. The available data consisted of forced expiratory volume in one second, forced vital capacity and peak expiratory flow rate. For each study multivariate regression models were developed to predict lung function and Bland-Altman plots were established to evaluate the agreement between predicted and measured values. Results The final regression equations for FEV1 and FVC showed adjusted r-square values between 0.65 and 0.75, and for PEF they were between 0.46 and 0.61. In all studies gender, age, height and pack-years were significant determinants, each with a similar effect size. Regarding other predictors there were some, although not statistically significant, differences between the studies. Bland-Altman plots indicated that the regression models for each individual study adequately predict medium (i.e. normal but not extremely high or low lung function values in the whole study population. Conclusions Simple models with gender, age and height explain a substantial part of lung function variance whereas further determinants add less than 5% to the total explained r-squared, at least for FEV1 and FVC. Thus, for different adult subpopulations of Germany one simple model for each lung function measures is still sufficient.

  3. CO{sub 2}MPARE. CO2 Model for Operational Programme Assessment in EU Regions. Technical background and guidance for deployment in EU regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hekkenberg, M. [ECN Policy Studies, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Le Pierres, S. [Energies Demain, Montreuil Sous Bois (France); Del Ciello, R. [Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development ENEA, Rome (Italy); Keppo, I. [University College London UCL, London (United Kingdom); Papagianni, S. [Centre for Renewable Energy Sources and Saving CRES, Pikermi Attiki (Greece); Harnych, J. [ENVIROS, Prague (Czech Republic)

    2013-03-15

    The CO2MPARE model enables national and regional authorities to assess the carbon impacts of Operational Programmes co-financed through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). This document provides technical background information and guidance for deploying the model in additional EU regions.

  4. Regional scale groundwater modelling study for Ganga River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maheswaran, R.; Khosa, R.; Gosain, A. K.; Lahari, S.; Sinha, S. K.; Chahar, B. R.; Dhanya, C. T.

    2016-10-01

    Subsurface movement of water within the alluvial formations of Ganga Basin System of North and East India, extending over an area of 1 million km2, was simulated using Visual MODFLOW based transient numerical model. The study incorporates historical groundwater developments as recorded by various concerned agencies and also accommodates the role of some of the major tributaries of River Ganga as geo-hydrological boundaries. Geo-stratigraphic structures, along with corresponding hydrological parameters,were obtained from Central Groundwater Board, India,and used in the study which was carried out over a time horizon of 4.5 years. The model parameters were fine tuned for calibration using Parameter Estimation (PEST) simulations. Analyses of the stream aquifer interaction using Zone Budget has allowed demarcation of the losing and gaining stretches along the main stem of River Ganga as well as some of its principal tributaries. From a management perspective,and entirely consistent with general understanding, it is seen that unabated long term groundwater extraction within the study basin has induced a sharp decrease in critical dry weather base flow contributions. In view of a surge in demand for dry season irrigation water for agriculture in the area, numerical models can be a useful tool to generate not only an understanding of the underlying groundwater system but also facilitate development of basin-wide detailed impact scenarios as inputs for management and policy action.

  5. Near-surface wind variability over the broader Adriatic region: insights from an ensemble of regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belušić, Andreina; Prtenjak, Maja Telišman; Güttler, Ivan; Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Schär, Christoph

    2018-06-01

    Over the past few decades the horizontal resolution of regional climate models (RCMs) has steadily increased, leading to a better representation of small-scale topographic features and more details in simulating dynamical aspects, especially in coastal regions and over complex terrain. Due to its complex terrain, the broader Adriatic region represents a major challenge to state-of-the-art RCMs in simulating local wind systems realistically. The objective of this study is to identify the added value in near-surface wind due to the refined grid spacing of RCMs. For this purpose, we use a multi-model ensemble composed of CORDEX regional climate simulations at 0.11° and 0.44° grid spacing, forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, a COSMO convection-parameterizing simulation at 0.11° and a COSMO convection-resolving simulation at 0.02° grid spacing. Surface station observations from this region and satellite QuikSCAT data over the Adriatic Sea have been compared against daily output obtained from the available simulations. Both day-to-day wind and its frequency distribution are examined. The results indicate that the 0.44° RCMs rarely outperform ERA-Interim reanalysis, while the performance of the high-resolution simulations surpasses that of ERA-Interim. We also disclose that refining the grid spacing to a few km is needed to properly capture the small-scale wind systems. Finally, we show that the simulations frequently yield the accurate angle of local wind regimes, such as for the Bora flow, but overestimate the associated wind magnitude. Finally, spectral analysis shows good agreement between measurements and simulations, indicating the correct temporal variability of the wind speed.

  6. Modeling the wind-fields of accidental releases with an operational regional forecast model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albritton, J.R.; Lee, R.L.; Sugiyama, G.

    1995-01-01

    The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) is an operational emergency preparedness and response organization supported primarily by the Departments of Energy and Defense. ARAC can provide real-time assessments of atmospheric releases of radioactive materials at any location in the world. ARAC uses robust three-dimensional atmospheric transport and dispersion models, extensive geophysical and dose-factor databases, meteorological data-acquisition systems, and an experienced staff. Although it was originally conceived and developed as an emergency response and assessment service for nuclear accidents, the ARAC system has been adapted to also simulate non-radiological hazardous releases. For example, in 1991 ARAC responded to three major events: the oil fires in Kuwait, the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, and the herbicide spill into the upper Sacramento River in California. ARAC's operational simulation system, includes two three-dimensional finite-difference models: a diagnostic wind-field scheme, and a Lagrangian particle-in-cell transport and dispersion scheme. The meteorological component of ARAC's real-time response system employs models using real-time data from all available stations near the accident site to generate a wind-field for input to the transport and dispersion model. Here we report on simulation studies of past and potential release sites to show that even in the absence of local meteorological observational data, readily available gridded analysis and forecast data and a prognostic model, the Navy Operational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System, applied at an appropriate grid resolution can successfully simulate complex local flows

  7. Regional/Urban Air Quality Modeling Assessment over China Using the Models-3/CMAQ System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, J. S.; Jang, C. C.; Streets, D. G.; Li, Z.; Wang, L.; Zhang, Q.; Woo, J.; Wang, B.

    2004-12-01

    China is the world's most populous country with a fast growing economy that surges in energy comsumption. It has become the second largest energy consumer after the United States although the per capita level is much lower than those found in developed or developing countries. Air pollution has become one of the most important problems of megacities such as Beijing and Shanghai and has serious impacts on public health, causes urban and regional haze. The Models-3/CMAQ modeling application that has been conducted to simulate multi-pollutants in China is presented. The modeling domains cover East Asia (36-kmx36-km) including Japan, South Korea, Korea DPR, Indonesia, Thailand, India and Mongolia, East China (12-kmx12-km) and Beijing/Tianjing, Shanghai (4-kmx4-km). For this study, the Asian emission inventory based on the emission estimates of the year 2000 that supported the NASA TRACE-P program is used. However, the TRACE-P emission inventory was developed for a different purpose such as global modeling. TRACE-P emission inventory may not be practical in urban area. There is no China national emission inventory available. Therefore, TRACE-P emission inventory is used on the East Asia and East China domains. The 8 districts of Beijing and Shanghai local emissions inventory are used to replace TRACE-P in 4-km domains. The meteorological data for the Models-3/CMAQ run are extracted from MM5. The model simulation is performed during the period January 1-20 and July 1-20, 2001 that presented the winter and summer time for China areas. The preliminary model results are shown O3 concentrations are in the range of 80 -120 ppb in the urban area. Lower urban O3 concentrations are shown in Beijing areas, possibly due to underestimation of urban man-made VOC emissions in the TRACE-P inventory and local inventory. High PM2.5 (70ug/m3 in summer and 150ug/m3 in winter) were simulated over metropolitan & downwind areas with significant secondary constituents. More comprehensive

  8. Regional differences of outpatient physician supply as a theoretical economic and empirical generalized linear model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholz, Stefan; Graf von der Schulenburg, Johann-Matthias; Greiner, Wolfgang

    2015-11-17

    Regional differences in physician supply can be found in many health care systems, regardless of their organizational and financial structure. A theoretical model is developed for the physicians' decision on office allocation, covering demand-side factors and a consumption time function. To test the propositions following the theoretical model, generalized linear models were estimated to explain differences in 412 German districts. Various factors found in the literature were included to control for physicians' regional preferences. Evidence in favor of the first three propositions of the theoretical model could be found. Specialists show a stronger association to higher populated districts than GPs. Although indicators for regional preferences are significantly correlated with physician density, their coefficients are not as high as population density. If regional disparities should be addressed by political actions, the focus should be to counteract those parameters representing physicians' preferences in over- and undersupplied regions.

  9. Arctide2017, a high-resolution regional tidal model in the Arctic Ocean

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cancet, M.; Andersen, O. B.; Lyard, F.

    2018-01-01

    The Arctic Ocean is a challenging region for tidal modelling. The accuracy of the global tidal models decreases by several centimeters in the Polar Regions, which has a large impact on the quality of the satellite altimeter sea surface heights and the altimetry-derived products. NOVELTIS, DTU Space...... and LEGOS have developed Arctide2017, a regional, high-resolution tidal atlas in the Arctic Ocean, in the framework of an extension of the CryoSat Plus for Ocean (CP4O) ESA STSE (Support to Science Element) project. In particular, this atlas benefits from the assimilation of the most complete satellite...... assimilation and validation. This paper presents the implementation methodology and the performance of this new regional tidal model in the Arctic Ocean, compared to the existing global and regional tidal models....

  10. [A process of aquatic ecological function regionalization: The dual tree framework and conceptual model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Shu Hai; Wu, Bo

    2017-12-01

    Aquatic ecological regionalization and aquatic ecological function regionalization are the basis of water environmental management of a river basin and rational utilization of an aquatic ecosystem, and have been studied in China for more than ten years. Regarding the common problems in this field, the relationship between aquatic ecological regionalization and aquatic ecological function regionalization was discussed in this study by systematic analysis of the aquatic ecological zoning and the types of aquatic ecological function. Based on the dual tree structure, we put forward the RFCH process and the diamond conceptual model. Taking Liaohe River basin as an example and referring to the results of existing regionalization studies, we classified the aquatic ecological function regions based on three-class aquatic ecological regionalization. This study provided a process framework for aquatic ecological function regionalization of a river basin.

  11. Influence investigation of a void region on modeling light propagation in a heterogeneous medium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Defu; Chen, Xueli; Ren, Shenghan; Qu, Xiaochao; Tian, Jie; Liang, Jimin

    2013-01-20

    A void region exists in some biological tissues, and previous studies have shown that inaccurate images would be obtained if it were not processed. A hybrid radiosity-diffusion method (HRDM) that couples the radiosity theory and the diffusion equation has been proposed to deal with the void problem and has been well demonstrated in two-dimensional and three-dimensional (3D) simple models. However, the extent of the impact of the void region on the accuracy of modeling light propagation has not been investigated. In this paper, we first implemented and verified the HRDM in 3D models, including both the regular geometries and a digital mouse model, and then investigated the influences of the void region on modeling light propagation in a heterogeneous medium. Our investigation results show that the influence of the region can be neglected when the size of the void is less than a certain range, and other cases must be taken into account.

  12. Regional parametrisation of a monthly hydrological model for estimating discharges in ungaued catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hlavcova, K.; Szolgay, J.; Kohnova, S.; Kalas, M.

    2003-04-01

    In the case of the absence of measured runoff optimisation techniques cannot be used to estimate the parameters of monthly rainfall-runoff models. In such a case usually empirical regression methods were used for relating the model parameters to the catchment characteristics in a given region. In the paper a different method for the regional calibration of a monthly water balance model, which can be used for planning purposes, is proposed. Instead of using the regional regression approach a method is proposed, which involves the calibration of a monthly water balance model to gauged sites in the given region simultaneously. A regional objective function was constructed and for the calibration a genetic programming algorithm was employed. It is expected, that the regionally calibrated model parameters can be used in ungauged basins with similar physiographic conditions. The comparison of the performance of such a regional calibration scheme was compared with two single site calibration methods in a region of West Slovakia. The results are based on a study that aimed at computing surface water inflow into a lowland area with valuable groundwater resources. Monthly discharge time series had to be estimated in small ungauged rivers entering the study area.

  13. A Model for the Regionalization of Higher Education: The Role and Contribution of Tuning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Knight

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A notable evolution in the internationalization of higher education in the last decade has been the increasing emphasis on regional level collaboration and reform initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to examine the process of regionalization through the lens of a conceptual model and to demonstrate how different Tuning initiatives serve as useful instruments in the application of the model, and the ultimate realization of higher education regionalization. The evolving nature and meaning of region and regionalization are explored in the first section of the paper. This leads to an analysis and conceptual mapping of the many terms used to describe the phenomenon. The proposed model is based on three distinct but complementary approaches; Functional, Organizational and Political Approaches (FOPA. The three approaches are inter-related. The model is generic in concept and purpose so that it can apply to the evolving process of higher education regionalization in different parts of the world. The article examines how the initiatives and implications of the Tuning process are directly related to the model and consequently make important contributions to the regionalization of higher education in all regions of the world.

  14. Generation of Natural Runoff Monthly Series at Ungauged Sites Using a Regional Regressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Pumo

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Many hydrologic applications require reliable estimates of runoff in river basins to face the widespread lack of data, both in time and in space. A regional method for the reconstruction of monthly runoff series is here developed and applied to Sicily (Italy. A simple modeling structure is adopted, consisting of a regression-based rainfall–runoff model with four model parameters, calibrated through a two-step procedure. Monthly runoff estimates are based on precipitation, temperature, and exploiting the autocorrelation with runoff at the previous month. Model parameters are assessed by specific regional equations as a function of easily measurable physical and climate basin descriptors. The first calibration step is aimed at the identification of a set of parameters optimizing model performances at the level of single basin. Such “optimal” sets are used at the second step, part of a regional regression analysis, to establish the regional equations for model parameters assessment as a function of basin attributes. All the gauged watersheds across the region have been analyzed, selecting 53 basins for model calibration and using the other six basins exclusively for validation. Performances, quantitatively evaluated by different statistical indexes, demonstrate relevant model ability in reproducing the observed hydrological time-series at both the monthly and coarser time resolutions. The methodology, which is easily transferable to other arid and semi-arid areas, provides a reliable tool for filling/reconstructing runoff time series at any gauged or ungauged basin of a region.

  15. Perturbations of modeling and forecast of karachi coastal region seawater

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussain, M.A.; Abbas, S.; Ansari, M.R.K.; Zaffar, A.

    2013-01-01

    Global warming is now a stark reality affecting the humanity in many hazardous ways. Continuous floods in Pakistan in past two years are an eye opener in this regard. A great loss of property, agriculture and life as a result of these floods suggests for an intelligent monitoring of the future projections of climate change and global warming. This is necessary because the harmful impacts of natural hazards can be coped and alleviated with a good planning in advance. This monitoring demands for enhanced forecasting capabilities, use of better analytical techniques and a clear determination and study of the controlling factors. Karachi is a coastal city which is also the industrial hub of Pakistan. Moreover, it is among one of the largest metropolitans of the world. So expectedly is most suitable for the study of high level of complex natural and anthropogenic activities. It is peculiar in the sense that it has two summer seasons, a situation scarcely observable on the globe. Here, summer season seawater temperature fluctuations are studied with the help of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models and short- and long-term forecasts are made. Our short-term forecasts determine months for the summer wise temperature extremes. It appears that the months of May, June, July and August are the months of extreme temperature for the first summer and October is the month of extreme temperature for the second summer. The long-term forecasts predict that 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019 will be the years of warm summers. The analysis appearing here would be useful for coastal-urban planners in emphasizing the impact of seawater extreme temperatures on urban industrial activities, etc. (author)

  16. Considering a point-source in a regional air pollution model; Prise en compte d`une source ponctuelle dans un modele regional de pollution atmospherique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipphardt, M.

    1997-06-19

    This thesis deals with the development and validation of a point-source plume model, with the aim to refine the representation of intensive point-source emissions in regional-scale air quality models. The plume is modelled at four levels of increasing complexity, from a modified Gaussian plume model to the Freiberg and Lusis ring model. Plume elevation is determined by Netterville`s plume rise model, using turbulence and atmospheric stability parameters. A model for the effect of a fine-scale turbulence on the mean concentrations in the plume is developed and integrated in the ring model. A comparison between results with and without considering micro-mixing shows the importance of this effect in a chemically reactive plume. The plume model is integrated into the Eulerian transport/chemistry model AIRQUAL, using an interface between Airqual and the sub-model, and interactions between the two scales are described. A simulation of an air pollution episode over Paris is carried out, showing that the utilization of such a sub-scale model improves the accuracy of the air quality model

  17. Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

    2018-03-01

    There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and

  18. Energy Production and Regional Economic Growth in China: A More Comprehensive Analysis Using a Panel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaobin Liu

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available China has witnessed a fast economic growth in the recent two decades. However, the heavy energy exploitation seems to show a negative relation to regional economic growth. Thus, the issue is whether the energy production is a curse or blessing for the regional economic growth in China. The present study deploys a comprehensive approach to rigorously prove the validity of a proposed panel data model that includes a second generation panel unit root test and panel cointegration and a spatial panel model. The results from the second generation panel unit root test and panel cointegration allowing for cross-sectional dependences show the differenced series are stationary and there exists a cointegration relationship among these variables for all sub-regions. The results from the spatial panel data model support the conjecture of the spatial dependent and show that there is a “resource curse” only for the Western region and Central region in China.

  19. Adjusting the Stems Regional Forest Growth Model to Improve Local Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Brad Smith

    1983-01-01

    A simple procedure using double sampling is described for adjusting growth in the STEMS regional forest growth model to compensate for subregional variations. Predictive accuracy of the STEMS model (a distance-independent, individual tree growth model for Lake States forests) was improved by using this procedure

  20. Modelling assessment of regional groundwater contamination due to historic smelter emissions of heavy metals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grift, B. van der; Griffioen, J.

    2008-01-01

    Historic emissions from ore smelters typically cause regional soil contamination. We developed a modelling approach to assess the impact of such contamination on groundwater and surface water load, coupling unsaturated zone leaching modelling with 3D groundwater transport modelling. Both historic

  1. Innovation, Decentralization, and Planning in a Multi-Region Model of Schumpeterian Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Batabyal, Amit; Nijkamp, Peter

    2014-01-01

    We study innovation and the resulting Schumpeterian economic growth that this innovation gives rise to in a model with N heterogeneous regions. For each region i where i=1,...,N, our analysis leads to five findings. First, we define the balanced growth path (BGP) allocations and the equilibrium of interest. Second, we stipulate the form of the innovation possibilities frontier that is consistent with balanced economic growth. Third, we derive the growth rate of the ith region in the decentral...

  2. Utilization of satellite remote sensing data on land surface characteristics in water and heat balance component modeling for vegetation covered territories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzylev, Eugene; Uspensky, Alexander; Startseva, Zoya; Volkova, Elena; Kukharsky, Alexander; Uspensky, Sergey

    2010-05-01

    The model of vertical water and heat transfer in the "soil-vegetation-atmosphere" system (SVAT) for vegetation covered territory has been developed, allowing assimilating satellite remote sensing data on land surface condition as well as accounting for heterogeneities of vegetation and meteorological characteristics. The model provides the calculation of water and heat balance components (such as evapotranspiration Ev, soil water content W, sensible and latent heat fluxes and others ) as well as vertical soil moisture and temperature distributions, temperatures of soil surface and foliage, land surface brightness temperature for any time interval within vegetation season. To describe the landscape diversity soil constants and leaf area index LAI, vegetation cover fraction B, and other vegetation characteristics are used. All these values are considered to be the model parameters. Territory of Kursk region with square about 15 thousands km2 situated in the Black Earth zone of Central Russia was chosen for investigation. Satellite-derived estimates of land surface characteristics have been constructed under cloud-free condition basing AVHRR/NOAA, MODIS/EOS Terra and EOS Aqua, SEVIRI/Meteosat-8, -9 data. The developed technologies of AVHRR data thematic processing have been refined providing the retrieval of surface skin brightness temperature Tsg, air foliage temperature Ta, efficient surface temperature Ts.eff and emissivity E, as well as derivation of vegetation index NDVI, B, and LAI. The linear regression estimators for Tsg, Ta and LAI have been built using representative training samples for 2003-2009 vegetation seasons. The updated software package has been applied for AVHRR data thematic processing to generate named remote sensing products for various dates of the above vegetation seasons. The error statistics of Ta, Ts.eff and Тsg derivation has been investigated for various samples using comparison with in-situ measurements that has given RMS errors in the

  3. ANALISIS SEKTOR KEUANGAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI REGIONAL DI WILAYAH JAWA: PENDEKATAN MODEL LEVINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Utami Baroroh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study are to analyze the influence of financial development to economic regional growth on Jawa region, using panel of province-level data on Jawa region for the period 2005-2010. The analysis method that used on this paper is panel data regression. The empirical results shown that financial asset and financial credit had a positive influence to economic regional growth on Jawa region, meanwhile third party fund had negative influence to economic regional growth on Jawa region.  The other result shown that individual effect from fixed effect model showed that DKI Jakarta, Banten and East Jawa have potential as the centre of economic growthDOI: 10.15408/etk.v11i2.1892

  4. Characterization of the Sahelian-Sudan rainfall based on observations and regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salih, Abubakr A. M.; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Tjernström, Michael; Zhang, Qiong

    2018-04-01

    The African Sahel region is known to be highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. We analyze rainfall in the Sahelian Sudan in terms of distribution of rain-days and amounts, and examine whether regional climate models can capture these rainfall features. Three regional models namely, Regional Model (REMO), Rossby Center Atmospheric Model (RCA) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), are evaluated against gridded observations (Climate Research Unit, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-interim reanalysis) and rain-gauge data from six arid and semi-arid weather stations across Sahelian Sudan over the period 1989 to 2008. Most of the observed rain-days are characterized by weak (0.1-1.0 mm/day) to moderate (> 1.0-10.0 mm/day) rainfall, with average frequencies of 18.5% and 48.0% of the total annual rain-days, respectively. Although very strong rainfall events (> 30.0 mm/day) occur rarely, they account for a large fraction of the total annual rainfall (28-42% across the stations). The performance of the models varies both spatially and temporally. RegCM4 most closely reproduces the observed annual rainfall cycle, especially for the more arid locations, but all of the three models fail to capture the strong rainfall events and hence underestimate its contribution to the total annual number of rain-days and rainfall amount. However, excessive moderate rainfall compensates this underestimation in the models in an annual average sense. The present study uncovers some of the models' limitations in skillfully reproducing the observed climate over dry regions, will aid model users in recognizing the uncertainties in the model output and will help climate and hydrological modeling communities in improving models.

  5. Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

    2014-03-01

    With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

  6. Developments in regional scale simulation: modelling ecologically sustainable development in the Northern Territory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moffatt, I.

    1992-01-01

    This paper outlines one way in which researchers can make a positive methodological contribution to the debate on ecologically sustainable development (ESD) by integrating dynamic modelling and geographical information systems to form the basis for regional scale simulations. Some of the orthodox uses of Geographic Information System (GIS) are described and it is argued that most applications do not incorporate process based causal models. A description of a pilot study into developing a processed base model of ESD in the Northern Territory is given. This dynamic process based simulation model consists of two regions namely the 'Top End' and the 'Central' district. Each region consists of ten sub-sectors and the pattern of land use represents a common sector to both regions. The role of environmental defence expenditure, including environmental rehabilitation of uranium mines, in the model is noted. Similarly, it is hypothesized that the impact of exogenous changes such as the greenhouse effect and global economic fluctuations can have a differential impact on the behaviour of several sectors of the model. Some of the problems associated with calibrating and testing the model are reviewed. Finally, it is suggested that further refinement of this model can be achieved with the pooling of data sets and the development of PC based transputers for more detailed and accurate regional scale simulations. When fully developed it is anticipated that this pilot model can be of service to environmental managers and other groups involved in promoting ESD in the Northern Territory. 54 refs., 6 figs

  7. 2-way coupling the hydrological land surface model PROMET with the regional climate model MM5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Zabel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Most land surface hydrological models (LSHMs consider land surface processes (e.g. soil–plant–atmosphere interactions, lateral water flows, snow and ice in a spatially detailed manner. The atmosphere is considered as exogenous driver, neglecting feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. On the other hand, regional climate models (RCMs generally simulate land surface processes through coarse descriptions and spatial scales but include land–atmosphere interactions. What is the impact of the differently applied model physics and spatial resolution of LSHMs on the performance of RCMs? What feedback effects are induced by different land surface models? This study analyses the impact of replacing the land surface module (LSM within an RCM with a high resolution LSHM. A 2-way coupling approach was applied using the LSHM PROMET (1 × 1 km2 and the atmospheric part of the RCM MM5 (45 × 45 km2. The scaling interface SCALMET is used for down- and upscaling the linear and non-linear fluxes between the model scales. The change in the atmospheric response by MM5 using the LSHM is analysed, and its quality is compared to observations of temperature and precipitation for a 4 yr period from 1996 to 1999 for the Upper Danube catchment. By substituting the Noah-LSM with PROMET, simulated non-bias-corrected near-surface air temperature improves for annual, monthly and daily courses when compared to measurements from 277 meteorological weather stations within the Upper Danube catchment. The mean annual bias was improved from −0.85 to −0.13 K. In particular, the improved afternoon heating from May to September is caused by increased sensible heat flux and decreased latent heat flux as well as more incoming solar radiation in the fully coupled PROMET/MM5 in comparison to the NOAH/MM5 simulation. Triggered by the LSM replacement, precipitation overall is reduced; however simulated precipitation amounts are still of high uncertainty, both

  8. High-risk regions and outbreak modelling of tularemia in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desvars-Larrive, A; Liu, X; Hjertqvist, M; Sjöstedt, A; Johansson, A; Rydén, P

    2017-02-01

    Sweden reports large and variable numbers of human tularemia cases, but the high-risk regions are anecdotally defined and factors explaining annual variations are poorly understood. Here, high-risk regions were identified by spatial cluster analysis on disease surveillance data for 1984-2012. Negative binomial regression with five previously validated predictors (including predicted mosquito abundance and predictors based on local weather data) was used to model the annual number of tularemia cases within the high-risk regions. Seven high-risk regions were identified with annual incidences of 3·8-44 cases/100 000 inhabitants, accounting for 56·4% of the tularemia cases but only 9·3% of Sweden's population. For all high-risk regions, most cases occurred between July and September. The regression models explained the annual variation of tularemia cases within most high-risk regions and discriminated between years with and without outbreaks. In conclusion, tularemia in Sweden is concentrated in a few high-risk regions and shows high annual and seasonal variations. We present reproducible methods for identifying tularemia high-risk regions and modelling tularemia cases within these regions. The results may help health authorities to target populations at risk and lay the foundation for developing an early warning system for outbreaks.

  9. Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

    2007-01-01

    -90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...

  10. Development of regional wheat VI-LAI models using Resourcesat-1 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    for assimilation into climate models or to study the biogeochemical cycles. ... of these data for regional scale study due to cloud ... The details of agro-climatic regions, the soil types, the wheat .... out to minimize the border effect on crop growth.

  11. RD networks and regional knowledge production in Europe : Evidence from a space-time model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanzenböck, Iris; Piribauer, Philipp

    2018-01-01

    In this study we estimate space-time impacts of the embeddedness in R&D networks on regional knowledge production using a dynamic spatial panel data model with non-linear effects for 229 European NUTS 2 regions in the period 1998–2010. Embeddedness refers to the positioning in networks where nodes

  12. Using regional bird density distribution models to evaluate protected area networks and inform conservation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    John D. Alexander; Jaime L. Stephens; Sam Veloz; Leo Salas; Josée S. Rousseau; C. John Ralph; Daniel A. Sarr

    2017-01-01

    As data about populations of indicator species become available, proactive strategies that improve representation of biological diversity within protected area networks should consider finer-scaled evaluations, especially in regions identified as important through course-scale analyses. We use density distribution models derived from a robust regional bird...

  13. Wildfire potential evaluation during a drought event with a regional climate model and NDVI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Y. Liu; J. Stanturf; S. Goodrick

    2010-01-01

    Regional climate modeling is a technique for simulating high-resolution physical processes in the atmosphere, soil and vegetation. It can be used to evaluate wildfire potential by either providing meteorological conditions for computation of fire indices or predicting soil moisture as a direct measure of fire potential. This study examines these roles using a regional...

  14. Regional SAR Image Segmentation Based on Fuzzy Clustering with Gamma Mixture Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X. L.; Zhao, Q. H.; Li, Y.

    2017-09-01

    Most of stochastic based fuzzy clustering algorithms are pixel-based, which can not effectively overcome the inherent speckle noise in SAR images. In order to deal with the problem, a regional SAR image segmentation algorithm based on fuzzy clustering with Gamma mixture model is proposed in this paper. First, initialize some generating points randomly on the image, the image domain is divided into many sub-regions using Voronoi tessellation technique. Each sub-region is regarded as a homogeneous area in which the pixels share the same cluster label. Then, assume the probability of the pixel to be a Gamma mixture model with the parameters respecting to the cluster which the pixel belongs to. The negative logarithm of the probability represents the dissimilarity measure between the pixel and the cluster. The regional dissimilarity measure of one sub-region is defined as the sum of the measures of pixels in the region. Furthermore, the Markov Random Field (MRF) model is extended from pixels level to Voronoi sub-regions, and then the regional objective function is established under the framework of fuzzy clustering. The optimal segmentation results can be obtained by the solution of model parameters and generating points. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm can be proved by the qualitative and quantitative analysis from the segmentation results of the simulated and real SAR images.

  15. Innovation, Decentralization and Planning in a Multi-Region Model of Schumpeterian Economic Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

    2014-01-01

    We study innovation and the resulting Schumpeterian economic growth that this innovation gives rise to in a model with N heterogeneous regions. For each region i where i = 1,…,N, our analysis leads to six findings. First, we define the balanced growth path (BGP) allocations and the equilibrium of

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Maui-Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian islands of Oahu,...

  17. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Main Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI)...

  18. A two-dimensional model with three regions for the reflooding study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motta, A.M.T.; Kinrys, S.; Roberty, N.C.; Carmo, E.G.D. do; Oliveira, L.F.S. de.

    1983-02-01

    A two-dimensional semi-analytical model, with three heat transfer regions is described for the calculation of flood ratio, the lenght of quenching front and the temperature distribution in the cladding. (E.G.) [pt

  19. A two-dimensional model with three regions for the reflooding study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motta, A.M.T.; Kinrys, S.; Roberty, N.C.; Carmo, E.G.D. do; Oliveira, L.F.S. de

    1982-01-01

    A two-dimensional semi-analytical model, with three heat transfer regions is described for the calculation of flood ratio, the length of quenching front and the temperature distribution in the cladding. (E.G.) [pt

  20. Model Orlando regionally efficient travel management coordination center (MORE TMCC), phase II : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    The final report for the Model Orlando Regionally Efficient Travel Management Coordination Center (MORE TMCC) presents the details of : the 2-year process of the partial deployment of the original MORE TMCC design created in Phase I of this project...

  1. Atmospheric Modeling of the Martian Polar Regions: CRISM EPF Coverage During the South Polar Spring Recession

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, A. J.; McGuire, P.; Wolff, M. J.

    2008-03-01

    We describe efforts to model dust and ice aerosols content and soils and icy surface reflectance in the Martian southern polar region during spring recession (Ls = 152-320) using CRISM emission phase function (EPF) observations.

  2. A regional and nonstationary model for partial duration series of extreme rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    as the explanatory variables in the regional and temporal domain, respectively. Further analysis of partial duration series with nonstationary and regional thresholds shows that the mean exceedances also exhibit a significant variation in space and time for some rainfall durations, while the shape parameter is found...... of extreme rainfall. The framework is built on a partial duration series approach with a nonstationary, regional threshold value. The model is based on generalized linear regression solved by generalized estimation equations. It allows a spatial correlation between the stations in the network and accounts...... furthermore for variable observation periods at each station and in each year. Marginal regional and temporal regression models solved by generalized least squares are used to validate and discuss the results of the full spatiotemporal model. The model is applied on data from a large Danish rain gauge network...

  3. The Regional Special Operations Headquarters: Franchising the NATO Model as a Hedge in Lean Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-01

    1 AIR FORCE FELLOWS AIR UNIVERSITY THE REGIONAL SPECIAL OPERATIONS HEADQUARTERS: FRANCHISING THE NATO MODEL AS A HEDGE IN LEAN...Headquarters: Franchising The NATO Model As A Hedge In Lean Times 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d...it is not copyrighted, but is the property of the United States government. 3 The Regional Special Operations Headquarters: Franchising the

  4. Large regional groundwater modeling - a sensitivity study of some selected conceptual descriptions and simplifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ericsson, Lars O.; Holmen, Johan

    2010-12-01

    The primary aim of this report is: - To present a supplementary, in-depth evaluation of certain conceptual simplifications, descriptions and model uncertainties in conjunction with regional groundwater simulation, which in the first instance refer to model depth, topography, groundwater table level and boundary conditions. Implementation was based on geo-scientifically available data compilations from the Smaaland region but different conceptual assumptions have been analysed

  5. Determination of clouds in MSG data for the validation of clouds in a regional climate model

    OpenAIRE

    Huckle, Roger

    2009-01-01

    Regional climate models (e.g. CLM) can help to asses the influence of the antropogenic climate change on the different regions of the earth. Validation of these models is very important. Satellite data are of great benefit, as data on a global scale and high temporal resolution is available. In this thesis a cloud detection and object based cloud classification for Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) was developed and used to validate CLM clouds. Results show sometimes too many clouds in the CLM.

  6. Meta-modeling soil organic carbon sequestration potential and its application at regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Zhongkui; Wang, Enli; Bryan, Brett A; King, Darran; Zhao, Gang; Pan, Xubin; Bende-Michl, Ulrike

    2013-03-01

    Upscaling the results from process-based soil-plant models to assess regional soil organic carbon (SOC) change and sequestration potential is a great challenge due to the lack of detailed spatial information, particularly soil properties. Meta-modeling can be used to simplify and summarize process-based models and significantly reduce the demand for input data and thus could be easily applied on regional scales. We used the pre-validated Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate the impact of climate, soil, and management on SOC at 613 reference sites across Australia's cereal-growing regions under a continuous wheat system. We then developed a simple meta-model to link the APSIM-modeled SOC change to primary drivers, i.e., the amount of recalcitrant SOC, plant available water capacity of soil, soil pH, and solar radiation, temperature, and rainfall in the growing season. Based on high-resolution soil texture data and 8165 climate data points across the study area, we used the meta-model to assess SOC sequestration potential and the uncertainty associated with the variability of soil characteristics. The meta-model explained 74% of the variation of final SOC content as simulated by APSIM. Applying the meta-model to Australia's cereal-growing regions reveals regional patterns in SOC, with higher SOC stock in cool, wet regions. Overall, the potential SOC stock ranged from 21.14 to 152.71 Mg/ha with a mean of 52.18 Mg/ha. Variation of soil properties induced uncertainty ranging from 12% to 117% with higher uncertainty in warm, wet regions. In general, soils in Australia's cereal-growing regions under continuous wheat production were simulated as a sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide with a mean sequestration potential of 8.17 Mg/ha.

  7. Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry V. Sein

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis. Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the

  8. Freshwater Ecosystem Service Flow Model To Evaluate Regional Water Security: A Case Study In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, D.; Li, S.

    2016-12-01

    Freshwater service, as the most important support ecosystem service, is essential to human survival and development. Many studies have evidenced the spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services and raised the concept of ecosystem service flow. However, rather few studies quantitatively characterize the freshwater service flow. This paper aims to quantify the effect of freshwater ecosystem service flow on downstream areas in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China over 2000, 2005 and 2010. We computed the freshwater ecosystem service provision with InVEST model. We calculated freshwater ecosystem service consumption with water quota method. We simulated the freshwater ecosystem service flow using our simplified flow model and assessed the regional water security with the improved freshwater security index. The freshwater provision service mainly depends on climatic factors that cannot be influenced by management, while the freshwater consumption service is constrained by human activities. Furthermore, the decrease of water quota for agricultural, domestic and industrial water counteracts the impact of increasing freshwater demand. The analysis of freshwater ecosystem service flow reveals that the majority area of the BTH (69.2%) is affected by upstream freshwater. If freshwater ecosystem service flow is considered, the water safety areas of the whole BTH account for 66.9%, 66.1%, 71.3%, which increase 6.4%, 6.8% and 5.7% in 2000, 2005 and 2010, respectively. These results highlight the need to understand the teleconnections between distant freshwater ecosystem service provision and local freshwater ecosystem service use. This approach therefore helps managers choose specific management and investment strategies for critical upstream freshwater provisions across different regions.

  9. Resource Planning Model: An Integrated Resource Planning and Dispatch Tool for Regional Electric Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, T.; Drury, E.; Eurek, K.; Bodington, N.; Lopez, A.; Perry, A.

    2013-01-01

    This report introduces a new capacity expansion model, the Resource Planning Model (RPM), with high spatial and temporal resolution that can be used for mid- and long-term scenario planning of regional power systems. Although RPM can be adapted to any geographic region, the report describes an initial version of the model adapted for the power system in Colorado. It presents examples of scenario results from the first version of the model, including an example of a 30%-by-2020 renewable electricity penetration scenario.

  10. Modeling polar cap F-region patches using time varying convection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sojka, J.J.; Bowline, M.D.; Schunk, R.W.; Decker, D.T.; Valladares, C.E.; Sheehan, R.; Anderson, D.N.; Heelis, R.A.

    1993-01-01

    Here the authors present the results of computerized simulations of the polar cap regions which were able to model the formation of polar cap patches. They used the Utah State University Time-Dependent Ionospheric Model (TDIM) and the Phillips Laboratory (PL) F-region models in this work. By allowing a time varying magnetospheric electric field in the models, they were able to generate the patches. This time varying field generates a convection in the ionosphere. This convection is similar to convective changes observed in the ionosphere at times of southward pointing interplanetary magnetic field, due to changes in the B y component of the IMF

  11. Nonlinear time series modeling and forecasting the seismic data of the Hindu Kush region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Muhammad Yousaf; Mittnik, Stefan

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we extended the application of linear and nonlinear time models in the field of earthquake seismology and examined the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of linear Autoregressive (AR), Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD), Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR), Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR), Additive Autoregressive (AAR), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for seismic data of the Hindu Kush region. We also extended the previous studies by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) models and compared their forecasting accuracy with linear AR model. Unlike previous studies that typically consider the threshold model specifications by using internal threshold variable, we specified these models with external transition variables and compared their out-of-sample forecasting performance with the linear benchmark AR model. The modeling results show that time series models used in the present study are capable of capturing the dynamic structure present in the seismic data. The point forecast results indicate that the AR model generally outperforms the nonlinear models. However, in some cases, threshold models with external threshold variables specification produce more accurate forecasts, indicating that specification of threshold time series models is of crucial importance. For raw seismic data, the ACD model does not show an improved out-of-sample forecasting performance over the linear AR model. The results indicate that the AR model is the best forecasting device to model and forecast the raw seismic data of the Hindu Kush region.

  12. A regional model for sustainable biogas production. Case study: North Savo, Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huopana, T.; Niska, H.; Jaeskelaeinen, A.; Loonik, J.; Den Boer, E.; Song, H.; Thorin, E.

    2012-11-15

    This report is one of the outputs from the REMOWE (Regional Mobilizing of Sustainable Waste-to-Energy Production) project. REMOWE is one of the projects within the Baltic Sea Region Programme. The overall objective of the REMOWE project is, on regional levels, to contribute to a decreased negative effect on the environment by reduction of carbon dioxide emission by creating a balance between energy consumption and sustainable use of renewable energy sources. Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions and use of renewable energy sources are broad areas and this project will focus on energy resources from waste and actions to facilitate implementation of energy efficient technology in the Baltic Sea region within the waste-to-energy area. The focus is to utilize waste from cities, farming and industry for energy purposes in an efficient way. The problem addressed by the project concerns how to facilitate the implementation of sustainable systems for waste-to-energy in the Baltic Sea region and specifically, in a first step, in the project partner regions. The project partnership consists of the Maelardalen University, with the School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology coordinating the project, and The County Administrative Board of Vaestmanland in Sweden, Savonia University of Applied Sciences, Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment for North Savo, and University of Eastern Finland (UEF) in Finland, Marshal Office of Lower Silesia in Poland, Ostfalia University of Applied Sciences, Ostfalia University of Applied Sciences in Wolfenbuettel in Germany, Klaipeda University in Lithuania, and Estonian Regional and Local Development Agency (ERKAS) in Estonia. This report is based on the modelling work performed in the work package 5 ('Model of sustainable regional waste-to-energy production') of the REMOWE project. The key objective has been on developing a regional model based on available geographic information for

  13. Intercomparison of four regional climate models for the German State of Saxonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreienkamp, F.; Spekat, A.; Enke, W.

    2009-09-01

    Results from four regional climate models which focus on Central Europe are presented: CCLM, the climate version of the German Weather Service's Local Model - REMO, the regional dynamic model from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg - STAR, the statistical model developed at the PIK Potsdam Institute and WETTREG, the statistic-dynamic model developed by the company CEC Potsdam. For the area of the German State of Saxonia a host of properties and indicators were analyzed aiming to show the models' abilities to reconstruct the current climate and compare climate model scenarios. These include a group of thermal indicators, such as the number of ice, frost, summer and hot days, the number of tropical nights; then there are hydrometeorological indicators such as the exceedance of low and high precipitation thresholds; humidity, cloudiness and wind indicators complement the array. A selection of them showing similarities and differences of the models investigated will be presented.

  14. Mathematic model of regional economy development by the final result of labor resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitseva, Irina; Malafeev, Oleg; Strekopytov, Sergei; Bondarenko, Galina; Lovyannikov, Denis

    2018-04-01

    This article presents the mathematic model of regional economy development based on the result of labor resources. The solution of a region development-planning problem is considered for the period of long-lasting planning taking into account the beginning and the end of the planned period. The challenge is to find the distribution of investments in the main and additional branches of the regional economy, which will provide simultaneous transaction of all major sectors of the regional economy from the given condition to the predetermined final state.

  15. ECOCLIMAP-II/Europe: a twofold database of ecosystems and surface parameters at 1-km resolution based on satellite information for use in land surface, meteorological and climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faroux, S.; Kaptué Tchuenté, A. T.; Roujean, J.-L.; Masson, V.; Martin, E.; Le Moigne, P.

    2012-11-01

    The overall objective of the present study is to introduce the new ECOCLIMAP-II database for Europe, which is an upgrade for this region of the former initiative, ECOCLIMAP-I, already implemented at global scale. The ECOCLIMAP programme is a dual database at 1-km resolution that includes an ecosystem classification and a coherent set of land surface parameters that are primarily mandatory in meteorological modelling (notably leaf area index and albedo). Hence, the aim of this innovative physiography is to enhance the quality of initialisation and impose some surface attributes within the scope of weather forecasting and climate related studies. The strategy for implementing ECOCLIMAP-II is to depart from prevalent land cover products such as CLC2000 (Corine Land Cover) and GLC2000 (Global Land Cover) by splitting existing classes into new classes that possess a better regional character by virtue of the climatic environment (latitude, proximity to the sea, topography). The leaf area index (LAI) from MODIS and NDVI from SPOT/Vegetation yield the two proxy variables that were considered here in order to perform a multi-year trimmed analysis between 1999 and 2005 using the K-means method. Further, meteorological applications require each land cover type to appear as a partition of fractions of 4 main surface types or tiles (nature, water bodies, sea, urban areas) and, inside the nature tile, fractions of 12 Plant Functional Types (PFTs) representing generic vegetation types - principally broadleaf forest, needleleaf forest, C3 and C4 crops, grassland and bare land - as incorporated by the SVAT model ISBA developed at Météo France. This landscape division also forms the cornerstone of a validation exercise. The new ECOCLIMAP-II can be verified with auxiliary land cover products at very fine and coarse resolutions by means of versatile land occupation nomenclatures.

  16. ECOCLIMAP-II/Europe: a twofold database of ecosystems and surface parameters at 1 km resolution based on satellite information for use in land surface, meteorological and climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faroux, S.; Kaptué Tchuenté, A. T.; Roujean, J.-L.; Masson, V.; Martin, E.; Le Moigne, P.

    2013-04-01

    The overall objective of the present study is to introduce the new ECOCLIMAP-II database for Europe, which is an upgrade for this region of the former initiative, ECOCLIMAP-I, already implemented at global scale. The ECOCLIMAP programme is a dual database at 1 km resolution that includes an ecosystem classification and a coherent set of land surface parameters that are primarily mandatory in meteorological modelling (notably leaf area index and albedo). Hence, the aim of this innovative physiography is to enhance the quality of initialisation and impose some surface attributes within the scope of weather forecasting and climate related studies. The strategy for implementing ECOCLIMAP-II is to depart from prevalent land cover products such as CLC2000 (Corine Land Cover) and GLC2000 (Global Land Cover) by splitting existing classes into new classes that possess a better regional character by virtue of the climatic environment (latitude, proximity to the sea, topography). The leaf area index (LAI) from MODIS and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from SPOT/Vegetation (a global monitoring system of vegetation) yield the two proxy variables that were considered here in order to perform a multi-year trimmed analysis between 1999 and 2005 using the K-means method. Further, meteorological applications require each land cover type to appear as a partition of fractions of 4 main surface types or tiles (nature, water bodies, sea, urban areas) and, inside the nature tile, fractions of 12 plant functional types (PFTs) representing generic vegetation types - principally broadleaf forest, needleleaf forest, C3 and C4 crops, grassland and bare land - as incorporated by the SVAT model ISBA (Interactions Surface Biosphere Atmosphere) developed at Météo France. This landscape division also forms the cornerstone of a validation exercise. The new ECOCLIMAP-II can be verified with auxiliary land cover products at very fine and coarse resolutions by means of versatile land

  17. Modelling Poly-Aromatic Hydrocarbons "online" with the GEOS-Chem Europe and Asia regional models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivatt, P.; Evans, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Poly-Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are carcinogens and so are restricted by international treaties. PAHs are mainly emitted into the atmosphere by domestic (heating and cooking), natural (forest fires burning), as well as some industrial processes (coke ovens). PAHs partition between the gas and particle phase (notably carbonaceous particles) based on their volatility. In recent years, interest has turned to the possible health effects of their oxidation products (both nitrogenated and oxygenated) as it has been suggested that these oxidation products may be even more carcinogenic than the parent PAHs. To increase our understanding of the processes controlling the regional concentrations of PAHs and their oxidation products an "online" PAH model has been developed within the GEOS-Chem framework. This provides for the representation of the coupled aerosol/gas phase chemistry of the parent PAH and its secondary oxidation products. Benzo[a]pyrene is used as an exemplar but the methodology is flexible and the approach can be used for any PAH species. Comparisons are made with observations and the sources of variability discussed.

  18. Generalized least squares and empirical Bayes estimation in regional partial duration series index-flood modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    parameters is inferred from regional data using generalized least squares (GLS) regression. Two different Bayesian T-year event estimators are introduced: a linear estimator that requires only some moments of the prior distributions to be specified and a parametric estimator that is based on specified......A regional estimation procedure that combines the index-flood concept with an empirical Bayes method for inferring regional information is introduced. The model is based on the partial duration series approach with generalized Pareto (GP) distributed exceedances. The prior information of the model...

  19. EVALUATING REGIONAL PREDICTIVE CAPACITY OF A PROCESS-BASED MERCURY EXPOSURE MODEL, REGIONAL-MERCURY CYCLING MODEL (R-MCM), APPLIED TO 91 VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LAKES AND PONDS, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regulatory agencies must develop fish consumption advisories for many lakes and rivers with limited resources. Process-based mathematical models are potentially valuable tools for developing regional fish advisories. The Regional Mercury Cycling model (R-MCM) was specifically d...

  20. MULTIAGENT IMITATION MODEL OF A REGIONAL CONSTRUCTION CLUSTER AS A HETERARCHICAL SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anufriev Dmitriy Petrovich

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Subject: a regional construction cluster, which is viewed as a complex system territorially localized within the region, consisting of interconnected and complementary enterprises of construction and related industries that are united with local institutions, authorities and cooperating enterprises by heterarchic relations. Research objectives: development of multi-agent simulation model that allows us to examine the business-processes in the regional construction cluster as a complex heterarchical system. Materials and methods: we formulate the mathematical problem for description of processes in a heterarchic system as in a special multi-agent queueing network. Conclusions: the article substantiates application of the decentralized approach which is based on the use of agent methodology. Several types of agents that model elementary organizational structures have been developed. We describe the functional core of the multi-agent simulation model characterizing the heterarchic organizational model. Using the Fishman-Kivia criterion, the adequacy of the logical functioning of the developed model was established.

  1. A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kravitz, Ben; Rasch, Philip J; Singh, Balwinder; Yoon, Jin-Ho; MacMartin, Douglas G; Robock, Alan; Ricke, Katharine L; Cole, Jason N S; Curry, Charles L; Irvine, Peter J; Ji, Duoying; Moore, John C; Keith, David W; Egill Kristjánsson, Jón; Muri, Helene; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Yang, Shuting

    2014-01-01

    Global-scale solar geoengineering is the deliberate modification of the climate system to offset some amount of anthropogenic climate change by reducing the amount of incident solar radiation at the surface. These changes to the planetary energy budget result in differential regional climate effects. For the first time, we quantitatively evaluate the potential for regional disparities in a multi-model context using results from a model experiment that offsets the forcing from a quadrupling of CO 2 via reduction in solar irradiance. We evaluate temperature and precipitation changes in 22 geographic regions spanning most of Earth's continental area. Moderate amounts of solar reduction (up to 85% of the amount that returns global mean temperatures to preindustrial levels) result in regional temperature values that are closer to preindustrial levels than an un-geoengineered, high CO 2 world for all regions and all models. However, in all but one model, there is at least one region for which no amount of solar reduction can restore precipitation toward its preindustrial value. For most metrics considering simultaneous changes in both variables, temperature and precipitation values in all regions are closer to the preindustrial climate for a moderate amount of solar reduction than for no solar reduction. (letter)

  2. Two-stage stochastic programming model for the regional-scale electricity planning under demand uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yun-Hsun; Wu, Jung-Hua; Hsu, Yu-Ju

    2016-01-01

    Traditional electricity supply planning models regard the electricity demand as a deterministic parameter and require the total power output to satisfy the aggregate electricity demand. But in today's world, the electric system planners are facing tremendously complex environments full of uncertainties, where electricity demand is a key source of uncertainty. In addition, electricity demand patterns are considerably different for different regions. This paper developed a multi-region optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming framework to incorporate the demand uncertainty. Furthermore, the decision tree method and Monte Carlo simulation approach are integrated into the model to simplify electricity demands in the form of nodes and determine the values and probabilities. The proposed model was successfully applied to a real case study (i.e. Taiwan's electricity sector) to show its applicability. Detail simulation results were presented and compared with those generated by a deterministic model. Finally, the long-term electricity development roadmap at a regional level could be provided on the basis of our simulation results. - Highlights: • A multi-region, two-stage stochastic programming model has been developed. • The decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are integrated into the framework. • Taiwan's electricity sector is used to illustrate the applicability of the model. • The results under deterministic and stochastic cases are shown for comparison. • Optimal portfolios of regional generation technologies can be identified.

  3. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling - Coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl Larsen, M.A. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. DTU Management Engineering, DTU Risoe Campus, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2013-10-15

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and precipitation between the two models are included. The preparation of the HIRHAM and MIKE SHE models for the coupled study revealed several findings. The performance of HIRHAM was highly affected by the domain size, domain

  4. Impact of SLA assimilation in the Sicily Channel Regional Model: model skills and mesoscale features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Olita

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the assimilation of MyOcean sea level anomalies along-track data on the analyses of the Sicily Channel Regional Model was studied. The numerical model has a resolution of 1/32° degrees and is capable to reproduce mesoscale and sub-mesoscale features. The impact of the SLA assimilation is studied by comparing a simulation (SIM, which does not assimilate data with an analysis (AN assimilating SLA along-track multi-mission data produced in the framework of MyOcean project. The quality of the analysis was evaluated by computing RMSE of the misfits between analysis background and observations (sea level before assimilation. A qualitative evaluation of the ability of the analyses to reproduce mesoscale structures is accomplished by comparing model results with ocean colour and SST satellite data, able to detect such features on the ocean surface. CTD profiles allowed to evaluate the impact of the SLA assimilation along the water column. We found a significant improvement for AN solution in terms of SLA RMSE with respect to SIM (the averaged RMSE of AN SLA misfits over 2 years is about 0.5 cm smaller than SIM. Comparison with CTD data shows a questionable improvement produced by the assimilation process in terms of vertical features: AN is better in temperature while for salinity it gets worse than SIM at the surface. This suggests that a better a-priori description of the vertical error covariances would be desirable. The qualitative comparison of simulation and analyses with synoptic satellite independent data proves that SLA assimilation allows to correctly reproduce some dynamical features (above all the circulation in the Ionian portion of the domain and mesoscale structures otherwise misplaced or neglected by SIM. Such mesoscale changes also infer that the eddy momentum fluxes (i.e. Reynolds stresses show major changes in the Ionian area. Changes in Reynolds stresses reflect a different pumping of eastward momentum from the eddy to

  5. Hierarchical Model for the Similarity Measurement of a Complex Holed-Region Entity Scene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanlong Chen

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex multi-holed-region entity scenes (i.e., sets of random region with holes are common in spatial database systems, spatial query languages, and the Geographic Information System (GIS. A multi-holed-region (region with an arbitrary number of holes is an abstraction of the real world that primarily represents geographic objects that have more than one interior boundary, such as areas that contain several lakes or lakes that contain islands. When the similarity of the two complex holed-region entity scenes is measured, the number of regions in the scenes and the number of holes in the regions are usually different between the two scenes, which complicates the matching relationships of holed-regions and holes. The aim of this research is to develop several holed-region similarity metrics and propose a hierarchical model to measure comprehensively the similarity between two complex holed-region entity scenes. The procedure first divides a complex entity scene into three layers: a complex scene, a micro-spatial-scene, and a simple entity (hole. The relationships between the adjacent layers are considered to be sets of relationships, and each level of similarity measurements is nested with the adjacent one. Next, entity matching is performed from top to bottom, while the similarity results are calculated from local to global. In addition, we utilize position graphs to describe the distribution of the holed-regions and subsequently describe the directions between the holes using a feature matrix. A case study that uses the Great Lakes in North America in 1986 and 2015 as experimental data illustrates the entire similarity measurement process between two complex holed-region entity scenes. The experimental results show that the hierarchical model accounts for the relationships of the different layers in the entire complex holed-region entity scene. The model can effectively calculate the similarity of complex holed-region entity scenes, even if the

  6. Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Möller, M.; Obleitner, F.; Reijmer, C.H.; Pohjola, V.A.; Glowacki, P.; Kohler, J.

    2016-01-01

    Large-scale modeling of glacier mass balance relies often on the output from regional climate models (RCMs). However, the limited accuracy and spatial resolution of RCM output pose limitations on mass balance simulations at subregional or local scales. Moreover, RCM output is still rarely available

  7. Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

  8. Local and regional minimum 1D models for earthquake location and data quality assessment in complex tectonic regions: application to Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Husen, S.; Clinton, J. F.; Kissling, E.

    2011-01-01

    One-dimensional (1D) velocity models are still widely used for computing earthquake locations at seismological centers or in regions where three-dimensional (3D) velocity models are not available due to the lack of data of sufficiently high quality. The concept of the minimum 1D model with appropriate station corrections provides a framework to compute initial hypocenter locations and seismic velocities for local earthquake tomography. Since a minimum 1D model represents a solution to the coupled hypocenter-velocity problem it also represents a suitable velocity model for earthquake location and data quality assessment, such as evaluating the consistency in assigning pre-defined weighting classes and average picking error. Nevertheless, the use of a simple 1D velocity structure in combination with station delays raises the question of how appropriate the minimum 1D model concept is when applied to complex tectonic regions with significant three-dimensional (3D) variations in seismic velocities. In this study we compute one regional minimum 1D model and three local minimum 1D models for selected subregions of the Swiss Alpine region, which exhibits a strongly varying Moho topography. We compare the regional and local minimum 1D models in terms of earthquake locations and data quality assessment to measure their performance. Our results show that the local minimum 1D models provide more realistic hypocenter locations and better data fits than a single model for the Alpine region. We attribute this to the fact that in a local minimum 1D model local and regional effects of the velocity structure can be better separated. Consequently, in tectonically complex regions, minimum 1D models should be computed in sub-regions defined by similar structure, if they are used for earthquake location and data quality assessment. (authors)

  9. Local and regional minimum 1D models for earthquake location and data quality assessment in complex tectonic regions: application to Switzerland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Husen, S.; Clinton, J. F. [Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zuerich, Zuerich (Switzerland); Kissling, E. [Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zuerich, Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2011-10-15

    One-dimensional (1D) velocity models are still widely used for computing earthquake locations at seismological centers or in regions where three-dimensional (3D) velocity models are not available due to the lack of data of sufficiently high quality. The concept of the minimum 1D model with appropriate station corrections provides a framework to compute initial hypocenter locations and seismic velocities for local earthquake tomography. Since a minimum 1D model represents a solution to the coupled hypocenter-velocity problem it also represents a suitable velocity model for earthquake location and data quality assessment, such as evaluating the consistency in assigning pre-defined weighting classes and average picking error. Nevertheless, the use of a simple 1D velocity structure in combination with station delays raises the question of how appropriate the minimum 1D model concept is when applied to complex tectonic regions with significant three-dimensional (3D) variations in seismic velocities. In this study we compute one regional minimum 1D model and three local minimum 1D models for selected subregions of the Swiss Alpine region, which exhibits a strongly varying Moho topography. We compare the regional and local minimum 1D models in terms of earthquake locations and data quality assessment to measure their performance. Our results show that the local minimum 1D models provide more realistic hypocenter locations and better data fits than a single model for the Alpine region. We attribute this to the fact that in a local minimum 1D model local and regional effects of the velocity structure can be better separated. Consequently, in tectonically complex regions, minimum 1D models should be computed in sub-regions defined by similar structure, if they are used for earthquake location and data quality assessment. (authors)

  10. A new epidemic modeling approach: Multi-regions discrete-time model with travel-blocking vicinity optimal control strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakary, Omar; Rachik, Mostafa; Elmouki, Ilias

    2017-08-01

    First, we devise in this paper, a multi-regions discrete-time model which describes the spatial-temporal spread of an epidemic which starts from one region and enters to regions which are connected with their neighbors by any kind of anthropological movement. We suppose homogeneous Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) populations, and we consider in our simulations, a grid of colored cells, which represents the whole domain affected by the epidemic while each cell can represent a sub-domain or region. Second, in order to minimize the number of infected individuals in one region, we propose an optimal control approach based on a travel-blocking vicinity strategy which aims to control only one cell by restricting movements of infected people coming from all neighboring cells. Thus, we show the influence of the optimal control approach on the controlled cell. We should also note that the cellular modeling approach we propose here, can also describes infection dynamics of regions which are not necessarily attached one to an other, even if no empty space can be viewed between cells. The theoretical method we follow for the characterization of the travel-locking optimal controls, is based on a discrete version of Pontryagin's maximum principle while the numerical approach applied to the multi-points boundary value problems we obtain here, is based on discrete progressive-regressive iterative schemes. We illustrate our modeling and control approaches by giving an example of 100 regions.

  11. Identifying the European fossil fuel plumes in the atmosphere over the Northeast Atlantic Region through isotopic observations and numerical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geels, C.; Christensen, J.H.; Hansen, A.W.

    2006-01-01

    Atmospheric transport, C-14. fossil fuel CO_2, numerical modeling, the north East Atlantic Region Udgivelsesdato: 18 August......Atmospheric transport, C-14. fossil fuel CO_2, numerical modeling, the north East Atlantic Region Udgivelsesdato: 18 August...

  12. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  13. Description and evaluation of the Earth System Regional Climate Model (RegCM-ES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farneti, Riccardo; Sitz, Lina; Di Sante, Fabio; Fuentes-Franco, Ramon; Coppola, Erika; Mariotti, Laura; Reale, Marco; Sannino, Gianmaria; Barreiro, Marcelo; Nogherotto, Rita; Giuliani, Graziano; Graffino, Giorgio; Solidoro, Cosimo; Giorgi, Filippo

    2017-04-01

    The increasing availability of satellite remote sensing data, of high temporal frequency and spatial resolution, has provided a new and enhanced view of the global ocean and atmosphere, revealing strong air-sea coupling processes throughout the ocean basins. In order to obtain an accurate representation and better understanding of the climate system, its variability and change, the inclusion of all mechanisms of interaction among the different sub-components, at high temporal and spatial resolution, becomes ever more desirable. Recently, global coupled models have been able to progressively refine their horizontal resolution to attempt to resolve smaller-scale processes. However, regional coupled ocean-atmosphere models can achieve even finer resolutions and provide additional information on the mechanisms of air-sea interactions and feedbacks. Here we describe a new, state-of-the-art, Earth System Regional Climate Model (RegCM-ES). RegCM-ES presently includes the coupling between atmosphere, ocean, land surface and sea-ice components, as well as an hydrological and ocean biogeochemistry model. The regional coupled model has been implemented and tested over some of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains. RegCM-ES has shown improvements in the representation of precipitation and SST fields over the tested domains, as well as realistic representations of coupled air-sea processes and interactions. The RegCM-ES model, which can be easily implemented over any regional domain of interest, is open source making it suitable for usage by the large scientific community.

  14. Climatological variability in modeling of long-term regional transport and deposition of air pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shannon, J.D.

    1984-01-01

    In a growing number of emission policy analyses, regulatory proceedings, and cost/benefit assessments, numerical models of long-range transport and deposition of air pollutants have been exercised to estimate source-receptor (S-R) relationships--for the particular meteorological conditions input to the model. The representativeness of the meteorological conditions, or the variability of the model estimates with climatological input from different years or corresponding seasons from different years, is seldom evaluated. Here, two full years (1980 and 1981) of meteorological data, as well as data from January and July of 1978, are used in the Advanced Statistical Trajectory Regional Air Pollution (ASTRAP) model (Shannon, 1981), one of the eight Memorandum of Intent (MOI) models, to estimate deposition for the S-R matrix combination of eleven source regions and nine receptors used in the MOI reports. (S-R matrices of dimensions 40 by 9 were also examined in the MOI reports.) Improvements in the ASTRAP model and in the emission inventory since the earlier work require recalculation of the two-month 1978 simulation in order for the comparison to isolate the effect of meteorological variability. The source regions are listed, and the receptor regions are provide. For completeness, an additional source region, the western states and provinces, has been added, as well as a total for the 48 contiguous states and 10 provinces. 4 references, 9 tables

  15. Coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling of the Mount Pinatubo Impact on the Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenchikov, G. L.; Osipov, S.

    2017-12-01

    The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo had dramatic effects on the regional climate in the Middle East. Though acknowledged, these effects have not been thoroughly studied. To fill this gap and to advance understanding of the mechanisms that control variability in the Middle East's regional climate, we simulated the impact of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption using a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling system set for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain. We used the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) framework, which couples the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). We modified the WRF model to account for the radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. Our coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations verified by available observations revealed strong perturbations in the energy balance of the Red Sea, which drove thermal and circulation responses. Our modeling approach allowed us to separate changes in the atmospheric circulation caused by the impact of the volcano from direct regional radiative cooling from volcanic aerosols. The atmospheric circulation effect was significantly stronger than the direct volcanic aerosols effect. We found that the Red Sea response to the Pinatubo eruption was stronger and qualitatively different from that of the global ocean system. Our results suggest that major volcanic eruptions significantly affect the climate in the Middle East and the Red Sea and should be carefully taken into account in assessments of long-term climate variability and warming trends in MENA and the Red Sea.

  16. Do regional weather models contribute to better wind power forecasts? A few Norwegian case studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bremnes, John Bjørnar; Giebel, Gregor

    2017-01-01

    resolution of this grid determines how accurate meteorological processes can be modeled and thereby also limits forecast quality. In this study, two global and four regional operational NWP models with spatial horizontal resolutions ranging from 1 to 32 km were applied to make wind power forecasts up to 66...

  17. Modelling the impact of regional uplift and local tectonics on fluvial terrace preservation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Viveen, W.; Schoorl, J.M.; Veldkamp, A.; Balen, van R.T.

    2014-01-01

    A terrace formation model (TERRACE) combined with a longitudinal river profile model (FLUVER) was used to simulate fluvial terrace formation and preservation in the northwest Iberian lower Miño River basin under the influence of three tectonic conditions; namely regional vertical uplift, local basin

  18. ANALYSIS OF MERCURY IN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LAKES: EVALUATION OF THE REGIONAL MERCURY CYCLING MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    An evaluation of the Regional Mercury Cycling Model (R-MCM, a steady-state fate and transport model used to simulate mercury concentrations in lakes) is presented based on its application to a series of 91 lakes in Vermont and New Hampshire. Visual and statistical analyses are pr...

  19. A Stochastic Route Choice Model for Car Travellers in the Copenhagen Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker; Frederiksen, Rasmus Dyhr; Daly, A.

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents a large-scale stochastic road traffic assignment model for the Copenhagen Region. The model considers several classes of passenger cars (different trip purposes), vans and trucks, each with its own utility function on which route choices are based. The utility functions include...

  20. Forcing of a photochemical air quality model with atmospheric fields simulated by a regional climate model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available to the enhanced greenhouse effect (e.g. Engelbrecht et al, 2009). Such changes are likely to influence the future transport and chemistry of air pollutants over the region. The complexity in which climate change may affect regional air quality is evident...

  1. Regional LLRW processing alternatives applying the DOE REGINALT systems analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beers, G.H.

    1987-01-01

    The DOE Low-Level Waste Management Program has developed a computer-based decision support system of models that may be used by nonprogrammers to evaluate a comprehensive approach to commercial low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) management. REGINALT (Regional Waste Management Alternatives Analysis Model) implementation will be described as the model is applied to hypothetical regional compact for the purpose of examining the technical and economic potential of two waste processing alternatives. Using waste from a typical regional compact, two specific regional waste processing centers are compared for feasibility. Example 1 assumes that a regional supercompaction facility is being developed for the region. Example 2 assumes that a regional facility with both supercompaction and incineration is specified. Both examples include identical disposal facilities, except that capacity may differ due to variation in volume reduction achieved. The two examples are compared with regard to volume reduction achieved, estimated occupational exposure for the processing facilities, and life cycle costs per generated unit waste. A base case also illustrates current disposal practices. The results of the comparisons evaluated, and other steps, if necessary, for additional decision support are identified

  2. Application of turbulence modeling to predict surface heat transfer in stagnation flow region of circular cylinder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chi R.; Yeh, Frederick C.

    1987-01-01

    A theoretical analysis and numerical calculations for the turbulent flow field and for the effect of free-stream turbulence on the surface heat transfer rate of a stagnation flow are presented. The emphasis is on the modeling of turbulence and its augmentation of surface heat transfer rate. The flow field considered is the region near the forward stagnation point of a circular cylinder in a uniform turbulent mean flow. The free stream is steady and incompressible with a Reynolds number of the order of 10 to the 5th power and turbulence intensity of less than 5 percent. For this analysis, the flow field is divided into three regions: (1) a uniform free-stream region where the turbulence is homogeneous and isotropic; (2) an external viscid flow region where the turbulence is distorted by the variation of the mean flow velocity; and, (3) an anisotropic turbulent boundary layer region over the cylinder surface. The turbulence modeling techniques used are the kappa-epsilon two-equation model in the external flow region and the time-averaged turbulence transport equation in the boundary layer region. The turbulence double correlations, the mean velocity, and the mean temperature within the boundary layer are solved numerically from the transport equations. The surface heat transfer rate is calculated as functions of the free-stream turbulence longitudinal microlength scale, the turbulence intensity, and the Reynolds number.

  3. Regional LLRW [low-level radioactive waste] processing alternatives applying the DOE REGINALT systems analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beers, G.H.

    1987-01-01

    The DOE Low-Level Waste Management Progam has developed a computer-based decision support system of models that may be used by nonprogrammers to evaluate a comprehensive approach to commercial low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) management. REGINALT (Regional Waste Management Alternatives Analysis Model) implementation will be described as the model is applied to a hypothetical regional compact for the purpose of examining the technical and economic potential of two waste processing alternaties. Using waste from a typical regional compact, two specific regional waste processing centers will be compared for feasibility. Example 1 will assume will assume that a regional supercompaction facility is being developed for the region. Example 2 will assume that a regional facility with both supercompation and incineration is specified. Both examples will include identical disposal facilities, except that capacity may differ due to variation in volume reduction achieved. The two examples will be compared with regard to volume reduction achieved, estimated occupational exposure for the processing facilities, and life cylcle costs per generated unit waste. A base case will also illustrate current disposal practices. The results of the comparisons will be evaluated, and other steps, if necessary, for additional decision support will be identified

  4. Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajek, Petr; Henriques, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.

  5. Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Hajek

    Full Text Available Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.

  6. Climatic features of the Red Sea from a regional assimilative model

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

    2016-08-16

    The Advanced Research version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used to generate a downscaled, 10-km resolution regional climate dataset over the Red Sea and adjacent region. The model simulations are performed based on two, two-way nested domains of 30- and 10-km resolutions assimilating all conventional observations using a cyclic three-dimensional variational approach over an initial 12-h period. The improved initial conditions are then used to generate regional climate products for the following 24 h. We combined the resulting daily 24-h datasets to construct a 15-year Red Sea atmospheric downscaled product from 2000 to 2014. This 15-year downscaled dataset is evaluated via comparisons with various in situ and gridded datasets. Our analysis indicates that the assimilated model successfully reproduced the spatial and temporal variability of temperature, wind, rainfall, relative humidity and sea level pressure over the Red Sea region. The model also efficiently simulated the seasonal and monthly variability of wind patterns, the Red Sea Convergence Zone and associated rainfall. Our results suggest that dynamical downscaling and assimilation of available observations improve the representation of regional atmospheric features over the Red Sea compared to global analysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. We use the dataset to describe the atmospheric climatic conditions over the Red Sea region. © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society.

  7. A neural mass model of interconnected regions simulates rhythm propagation observed via TMS-EEG.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cona, F; Zavaglia, M; Massimini, M; Rosanova, M; Ursino, M

    2011-08-01

    Knowledge of cortical rhythms represents an important aspect of modern neuroscience, to understand how the brain realizes its functions. Recent data suggest that different regions in the brain may exhibit distinct electroencephalogram (EEG) rhythms when perturbed by Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) and that these rhythms can change due to the connectivity among regions. In this context, in silico simulations may help the validation of these hypotheses that would be difficult to be verified in vivo. Neural mass models can be very useful to simulate specific aspects of electrical brain activity and, above all, to analyze and identify the overall frequency content of EEG in a cortical region of interest (ROI). In this work we implemented a model of connectivity among cortical regions to fit the impulse responses in three ROIs recorded during a series of TMS/EEG experiments performed in five subjects and using three different impulse intensities. In particular we investigated Brodmann Area (BA) 19 (occipital lobe), BA 7 (parietal lobe) and BA 6 (frontal lobe). Results show that the model can reproduce the natural rhythms of the three regions quite well, acting on a few internal parameters. Moreover, the model can explain most rhythm changes induced by stimulation of another region, and inter-subject variability, by estimating just a few long-range connectivity parameters among ROIs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Measuring China’s regional energy and carbon emission efficiency with DEA models: A survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng, Fanyi; Su, Bin; Thomson, Elspeth; Zhou, Dequn; Zhou, P.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • China’s regional efficiency studies using data envelopment analysis are reviewed. • The main features of 46 studies published in 2006–2015 are summarized. • Six models are compared from the perspective of methodology and empirical results. • Empirical study of China’s 30 regional efficiency assessment in 1995–2012 is presented. - Abstract: The use of data envelopment analysis (DEA) in China’s regional energy efficiency and carbon emission efficiency (EE&CE) assessment has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper conducted a comprehensive survey of empirical studies published in 2006–2015 on China’s regional EE&CE assessment using DEA-type models. The main features used in previous studies were identified, and then the methodological framework for deriving the EE&CE indicators as well as six widely used DEA models were introduced. These DEA models were compared and applied to measure China’s regional EE&CE in 30 provinces/regions between 1995 and 2012. The empirical study indicates that China’s regional EE&CE remained stable in the 9th Five Year Plan (1996–2000), then decreased in the 10th Five Year Plan (2000–2005), and increased a bit in the 11th Five Year Plan (2006–2010). The east region of China had the highest EE&CE while the central area had the lowest. By way of conclusion, some useful points relating to model selection are summarized from both methodological and empirical aspects.

  9. Evaluation of regional climate model simulations versus gridded observed and regional reanalysis products using a combined weighting scheme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eum, Hyung-Il; Laprise, Rene [University of Quebec at Montreal, ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Gachon, Philippe [University of Quebec at Montreal, ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Section, Climate Research Division, Montreal, QC (Canada); Ouarda, Taha [University of Quebec, INRS-ETE (Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Eau-Terre-Environnement), Quebec, QC (Canada)

    2012-04-15

    This study presents a combined weighting scheme which contains five attributes that reflect accuracy of climate data, i.e. short-term (daily), mid-term (annual), and long-term (decadal) timescales, as well as spatial pattern, and extreme values, as simulated from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with respect to observed and regional reanalysis products. Southern areas of Quebec and Ontario provinces in Canada are used for the study area. Three series of simulation from two different versions of the Canadian RCM (CRCM4.1.1, and CRCM4.2.3) are employed over 23 years from 1979 to 2001, driven by both NCEP and ERA40 global reanalysis products. One series of regional reanalysis dataset (i.e. NARR) over North America is also used as reference for comparison and validation purpose, as well as gridded historical observed daily data of precipitation and temperatures, both series have been beforehand interpolated on the CRCM 45-km grid resolution. Monthly weighting factors are calculated and then combined into four seasons to reflect seasonal variability of climate data accuracy. In addition, this study generates weight averaged references (WARs) with different weighting factors and ensemble size as new reference climate data set. The simulation results indicate that the NARR is in general superior to the CRCM simulated precipitation values, but the CRCM4.1.1 provides the highest weighting factors during the winter season. For minimum and maximum temperature, both the CRCM4.1.1 and the NARR products provide the highest weighting factors, respectively. The NARR provides more accurate short- and mid-term climate data, but the two versions of the CRCM provide more precise long-term data, spatial pattern and extreme events. Or study confirms also that the global reanalysis data (i.e. NCEP vs. ERA40) used as boundary conditions in the CRCM runs has non-negligible effects on the accuracy of CRCM simulated precipitation and temperature values. In addition, this study demonstrates

  10. Failed rib region prediction in a human body model during crash events with precrash braking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guleyupoglu, B; Koya, B; Barnard, R; Gayzik, F S

    2018-02-28

    The objective of this study is 2-fold. We used a validated human body finite element model to study the predicted chest injury (focusing on rib fracture as a function of element strain) based on varying levels of simulated precrash braking. Furthermore, we compare deterministic and probabilistic methods of rib injury prediction in the computational model. The Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC) M50-O model was gravity settled in the driver position of a generic interior equipped with an advanced 3-point belt and airbag. Twelve cases were investigated with permutations for failure, precrash braking system, and crash severity. The severities used were median (17 kph), severe (34 kph), and New Car Assessment Program (NCAP; 56.4 kph). Cases with failure enabled removed rib cortical bone elements once 1.8% effective plastic strain was exceeded. Alternatively, a probabilistic framework found in the literature was used to predict rib failure. Both the probabilistic and deterministic methods take into consideration location (anterior, lateral, and posterior). The deterministic method is based on a rubric that defines failed rib regions dependent on a threshold for contiguous failed elements. The probabilistic method depends on age-based strain and failure functions. Kinematics between both methods were similar (peak max deviation: ΔX head = 17 mm; ΔZ head = 4 mm; ΔX thorax = 5 mm; ΔZ thorax = 1 mm). Seat belt forces at the time of probabilistic failed region initiation were lower than those at deterministic failed region initiation. The probabilistic method for rib fracture predicted more failed regions in the rib (an analog for fracture) than the deterministic method in all but 1 case where they were equal. The failed region patterns between models are similar; however, there are differences that arise due to stress reduced from element elimination that cause probabilistic failed regions to continue to rise after no deterministic failed region would be

  11. Regional climate models' performance in representing precipitation and temperature over selected Mediterranean areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Deidda

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the relative performance of several climate models in providing reliable forcing for hydrological modeling in six representative catchments in the Mediterranean region. We consider 14 Regional Climate Models (RCMs, from the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project, run for the A1B emission scenario on a common 0.22° (about 24 km rotated grid over Europe and the Mediterranean region. In the validation period (1951 to 2010 we consider daily precipitation and surface temperatures from the observed data fields (E-OBS data set, available from the ENSEMBLES project and the data providers in the ECA&D project. Our primary objective is to rank the 14 RCMs for each catchment and select the four best-performing ones to use as common forcing for hydrological models in the six Mediterranean basins considered in the EU-FP7 CLIMB project. Using a common suite of four RCMs for all studied catchments reduces the (epistemic uncertainty when evaluating trends and climate change impacts in the 21st century. We present and discuss the validation setting, as well as the obtained results and, in some detail, the difficulties we experienced when processing the data. In doing so we also provide useful information and advice for researchers not directly involved in climate modeling, but interested in the use of climate model outputs for hydrological modeling and, more generally, climate change impact studies in the Mediterranean region.

  12. Regional model of EKC for air pollution: Evidence from the Republic of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Soonae; Lee, Youngmi

    2011-01-01

    This study aims to investigate a relationship between economic development and air pollution at the regional level, and further suggest energy policies for climate change mitigation. The present study examines an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis analyzing annual panel data of 16 metropolitan regions in Korea over a 16-year time period. The analysis results show that there is no one-dominant shape of EKC for SO 2 and NO 2 ; each region has its own EKC. That is, although we find the potential existence of U-shaped and N-shaped curves, the region-specific coefficients are enormously heterogeneous across regions. For CO, on the other hand, the random coefficient model shows that there is a dominant U-shaped curve across regions. In addition, energy consumption appears to be the most significant variable in explaining air pollution. Based on these results, we assert that environmental policy should consider the different characteristics of each region and type of pollutant. - Highlights: → Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypotheses are tested for air pollution in Korea. → A relationship of economic growth and pollution is analyzed at the regional level. → No-dominant EKC is found for SO 2 and NO 2 , but a dominant U-shaped curve for CO. → Environmental Policy should consider different features of each pollutant and region.

  13. Regional model of EKC for air pollution: Evidence from the Republic of Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Soonae, E-mail: psoonae@snu.ac.kr [Graduate School of Public Administration, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Youngmi, E-mail: youngmil@usc.edu [School of Policy, Planning, and Development, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089 (United States)

    2011-10-15

    This study aims to investigate a relationship between economic development and air pollution at the regional level, and further suggest energy policies for climate change mitigation. The present study examines an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis analyzing annual panel data of 16 metropolitan regions in Korea over a 16-year time period. The analysis results show that there is no one-dominant shape of EKC for SO{sub 2} and NO{sub 2}; each region has its own EKC. That is, although we find the potential existence of U-shaped and N-shaped curves, the region-specific coefficients are enormously heterogeneous across regions. For CO, on the other hand, the random coefficient model shows that there is a dominant U-shaped curve across regions. In addition, energy consumption appears to be the most significant variable in explaining air pollution. Based on these results, we assert that environmental policy should consider the different characteristics of each region and type of pollutant. - Highlights: > Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypotheses are tested for air pollution in Korea. > A relationship of economic growth and pollution is analyzed at the regional level. > No-dominant EKC is found for SO{sub 2} and NO{sub 2}, but a dominant U-shaped curve for CO. > Environmental Policy should consider different features of each pollutant and region.

  14. STATISTICAL GROWTH MODELING OF LONGITUDINAL DT-MRI FOR REGIONAL CHARACTERIZATION OF EARLY BRAIN DEVELOPMENT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi, Neda; Prastawa, Marcel; Fletcher, P Thomas; Gilmore, John H; Lin, Weili; Gerig, Guido

    2012-01-01

    A population growth model that represents the growth trajectories of individual subjects is critical to study and understand neurodevelopment. This paper presents a framework for jointly estimating and modeling individual and population growth trajectories, and determining significant regional differences in growth pattern characteristics applied to longitudinal neuroimaging data. We use non-linear mixed effect modeling where temporal change is modeled by the Gompertz function. The Gompertz function uses intuitive parameters related to delay, rate of change, and expected asymptotic value; all descriptive measures which can answer clinical questions related to growth. Our proposed framework combines nonlinear modeling of individual trajectories, population analysis, and testing for regional differences. We apply this framework to the study of early maturation in white matter regions as measured with diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Regional differences between anatomical regions of interest that are known to mature differently are analyzed and quantified. Experiments with image data from a large ongoing clinical study show that our framework provides descriptive, quantitative information on growth trajectories that can be directly interpreted by clinicians. To our knowledge, this is the first longitudinal analysis of growth functions to explain the trajectory of early brain maturation as it is represented in DTI.

  15. Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Rebecca Lee

    2016-08-01

    Hansen's disease (HD), or leprosy, is still considered a public health risk in much of Brazil. Understanding the dynamics of the infection at a regional level can aid in identification of targets to improve control. A compartmental continuous-time model for leprosy dynamics was designed based on understanding of the biology of the infection. The transmission coefficients for the model and the rate of detection were fit for each region using Approximate Bayesian Computation applied to paucibacillary and multibacillary incidence data over the period of 2000 to 2010, and model fit was validated on incidence data from 2011 to 2012. Regional variation was noted in detection rate, with cases in the Midwest estimated to be infectious for 10 years prior to detection compared to 5 years for most other regions. Posterior predictions for the model estimated that elimination of leprosy as a public health risk would require, on average, 44-45 years in the three regions with the highest prevalence. The model is easily adaptable to other settings, and can be studied to determine the efficacy of improved case finding on leprosy control.

  16. Regionalization of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Stochastic Rainfall Model

    OpenAIRE

    Dongkyun Kim; Francisco Olivera; Huidae Cho; Scott A. Socolofsky

    2013-01-01

    Parameters of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP) stochastic rainfall simulation model were regionalized across the contiguous United States. Three thousand four hundred forty-four National Climate Data Center (NCDC) rain gauges were used to obtain spatial and seasonal patterns of the model parameters. The MBLRP model was calibrated to minimize the discrepancy between the precipitation depth statistics between the observed and MBLRP-generated precipitation time series. These...

  17. How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claas Teichmann

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Global and regional climate model simulations are frequently used for regional climate change assessments and in climate impact modeling studies. To reflect the inherent and methodological uncertainties in climate modeling, the assessment of regional climate change requires ensemble simulations from different global and regional climate model combinations. To interpret the spread of simulated results, it is useful to understand how the climate change signal is modified in the GCM-RCM modelmodelgeneral circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM chain. This kind of information can also be useful for impact modelers; for the process of experiment design and when interpreting model results. In this study, we investigate how the simulated historical and future climate of the Max-Planck-Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM is modified by dynamic downscaling with the regional model REMO in different world regions. The historical climate simulations for 1950–2005 are driven by observed anthropogenic forcing. The climate projections are driven by projected anthropogenic forcing according to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The global simulations are downscaled with REMO over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX domains Africa, Europe, South America and West Asia from 2006–2100. This unique set of simulations allows for climate type specific analysis across multiple world regions and for multi-scenarios. We used a classification of climate types by Köppen-Trewartha to define evaluation regions with certain climate conditions. A systematic comparison of near-surface temperature and precipitation simulated by the regional and the global model is done. In general, the historical time period is well represented by the GCM and the RCM. Some different biases occur in the RCM compared to the GCM as in the Amazon Basin, northern Africa and the West Asian domain. Both models project similar warming

  18. Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramati, Maria Caterina

    2016-11-15

    Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Modeling of budgetary funding influence on socio-demographic processes of a region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandra Vladimirovna Vasil'eva

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a method of modeling socio-demographic processes in a region based on the minimax approach. In this method, the simulated socio-demographic processes reflect the performance of a population fertility age model, reproductive systems and the structure of mortality, as management impact tools of fiscal spending on socially significant budget items (health, physical culture and sport, social policy, education, environmental protection are considered. Testing methodology on the examples of the Russian Federation subjects included in the Ural Federal District is presented. Peculiarities of influence of funding of each socially important item on the social and demographic processes in the regions of the Ural Federal District are shown. Priorities of distribution of funds based on the level of budgetary provision in the region to ensure optimization of socio-demographic development of the region are shaped.

  20. The role of tourism public-private partnerships in regional development: a conceptual model proposal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mário Franco

    Full Text Available Tourism is characterized as being a sector that stands out as one of the business activities with the greatest potential for worldwide expansion, and as an engine for economic growth. If at the national level, the appeal of tourism is significant, on the local level this sector presents itself as an essential tool in regional development, as a means to avoid regional desertification and stagnation, stimulating the potential of more undeveloped regions. In such a competitive sector as tourism, companies should develop synergies and achieve competitive advantage. In this context, public-private partnerships play an important role in regional development. The aim of this paper is to present a theoretical context that combines different concepts and elements to explain and understand the public-private partnership phenomenon in tourism. A conceptual model of the role of public-private partnerships will be proposed in order to contribute to successful regional development.

  1. Effect of time-varying tropospheric models on near-regional and regional infrasound propagation as constrained by observational data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, Mihan H.; Stump, Brian W.; Hayward, Chris

    2008-06-01

    The Chulwon Seismo-Acoustic Array (CHNAR) is a regional seismo-acoustic array with co-located seismometers and infrasound microphones on the Korean peninsula. Data from forty-two days over the course of a year between October 1999 and August 2000 were analyzed; 2052 infrasound-only arrivals and 23 seismo-acoustic arrivals were observed over the six week study period. A majority of the signals occur during local working hours, hour 0 to hour 9 UT and appear to be the result of cultural activity located within a 250 km radius. Atmospheric modeling is presented for four sample days during the study period, one in each of November, February, April, and August. Local meteorological data sampled at six hour intervals is needed to accurately model the observed arrivals and this data produced highly temporally variable thermal ducts that propagated infrasound signals within 250 km, matching the temporal variation in the observed arrivals. These ducts change dramatically on the order of hours, and meteorological data from the appropriate sampled time frame was necessary to interpret the observed arrivals.

  2. Covariances for neutron cross sections calculated using a regional model based on local-model fits to experimental data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D.L.; Guenther, P.T.

    1983-11-01

    We suggest a procedure for estimating uncertainties in neutron cross sections calculated with a nuclear model descriptive of a specific mass region. It applies standard error propagation techniques, using a model-parameter covariance matrix. Generally, available codes do not generate covariance information in conjunction with their fitting algorithms. Therefore, we resort to estimating a relative covariance matrix a posteriori from a statistical examination of the scatter of elemental parameter values about the regional representation. We numerically demonstrate our method by considering an optical-statistical model analysis of a body of total and elastic scattering data for the light fission-fragment mass region. In this example, strong uncertainty correlations emerge and they conspire to reduce estimated errors to some 50% of those obtained from a naive uncorrelated summation in quadrature. 37 references.

  3. Covariances for neutron cross sections calculated using a regional model based on local-model fits to experimental data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.; Guenther, P.T.

    1983-11-01

    We suggest a procedure for estimating uncertainties in neutron cross sections calculated with a nuclear model descriptive of a specific mass region. It applies standard error propagation techniques, using a model-parameter covariance matrix. Generally, available codes do not generate covariance information in conjunction with their fitting algorithms. Therefore, we resort to estimating a relative covariance matrix a posteriori from a statistical examination of the scatter of elemental parameter values about the regional representation. We numerically demonstrate our method by considering an optical-statistical model analysis of a body of total and elastic scattering data for the light fission-fragment mass region. In this example, strong uncertainty correlations emerge and they conspire to reduce estimated errors to some 50% of those obtained from a naive uncorrelated summation in quadrature. 37 references

  4. Regional Intergration and Migration: An Economic Geography Model with Hetergenous Labour Force

    OpenAIRE

    Nicola D. Coniglio

    2002-01-01

    This paper aims to analyse the effect of deepening regional integration on the incentive for factors of production, in particular labour, to spatially relocate. We adopt a general equilibrium, economic-geography model built on Krugman (1991) allowing for skill heterogeneity in the manufacturing sector. At a given level of trade costs, due to the productivity premium associated with the concentration of high-skilled workers in one region, this type of worker will be more willing to migrate tha...

  5. Regional Calibration of SCS-CN L-THIA Model: Application for Ungauged Basins

    OpenAIRE

    Jeon, Ji-Hong; Lim, Kyoung; Engel, Bernard

    2014-01-01

    Estimating surface runoff for ungauged watershed is an important issue. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method developed from long-term experimental data is widely used to estimate surface runoff from gaged or ungauged watersheds. Many modelers have used the documented SCS-CN parameters without calibration, sometimes resulting in significant errors in estimating surface runoff. Several methods for regionalization of SCS-CN parameters were evaluated. The regionalization met...

  6. Actuarial modeling of cost of voluntary pension insurance of the population of the region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhailova Svetlana Sergeevna

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In article approach to determination of net value of the contract of pension insurance for the man's and female population, considering regional demographic features is offered. Results of actuarial calculation of the size pure net - rates of individual pension insurance are presented, "sensitivity" of cost of insurance is defined by methods of statistical modeling to key parameters of a pension product for the region population.

  7. Regional water resources assessments using an uncertain modelling approach: The example of Swaziland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Ndzabandzaba

    2017-04-01

    New hydrological insights for this region: The analysis of hydrological indices highlights the regional variations in hydrological processes and sub-basin response. The adopted modelling approach provides further insight into all of the uncertainties associated with quantifying the available water resources of Swaziland. The study has provided more insight into the spatial variability of the hydrological response and existing development impacts than was previously available. These new insights should provide an improved basis for future water management in Swaziland.

  8. Methane in the Amazon: A forward and inverse regional modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, V.; Gerbig, C.; Koch, F. T.; Karstens, U.; Chen, H.; Bela, M. M.; Longo, K.; Freitas, S.; Bergamaschi, P. M.; Kaplan, J. O.; Prigent, C.

    2011-12-01

    The Amazon region is an important player in the global methane (CH4) cycle, the second most important greenhouse gas after CO2. Different major CH4 sources in the Amazon region such as anaerobic microbial production in wetlands and biomass burning will be affected by changing climate. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the processes is required. Within the BARCA (Balanço Atmosférico Regional de Carbono na Amazônia) project, airborne measurements of greenhouse gases, associated tracers and aerosols were taken during the end of the dry season in November 2008 as well as during the end of the wet season in May 2009. These aircraft measurements and additional ground based measurements provide a test bed for high resolution transport simulation of CH4. Here we present a comparison of WRF-Chem passive tracer simulations of CH4 to airborne CH4 observations obtained from the BARCA campaigns in November 2008 and May 2009 using the newly established WRF Greenhouse Gas Model (WRF-GHG) in combination with two different process-based bottom-up models for the calculation of CH4 emissions from anaerobic microbial production in wetlands (Kaplan and Walter-Heimann) and three different wetland inundation maps (Kaplan, JERS-1SAR, Prigent). The comparison illustrates the importance of a wetland inundation map with inundated area changing in time, and the quality of the representation of atmospheric transport in regional models in tropical regions. In addition, we demonstrate a comparison of WRF-GHG CH4 simulations to TT34 tower observations (35 m above ground; located 60 km north-west of Manaus, Brazil) for August 2009, evaluating the performance of WRF-GHG in representing CH4 observations in the planetary boundary layer in tropical regions. Finally, we present preliminary results of a regional inversion using the TM3-STILT model together with the above mentioned observations for the estimation of the CH4 budget of the Amazon region.

  9. Aerosol indirect effects on summer precipitation in a regional climate model for the Euro-Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Da Silva, Nicolas; Mailler, Sylvain; Drobinski, Philippe

    2018-03-01

    Aerosols affect atmospheric dynamics through their direct and semi-direct effects as well as through their effects on cloud microphysics (indirect effects). The present study investigates the indirect effects of aerosols on summer precipitation in the Euro-Mediterranean region, which is located at the crossroads of air masses carrying both natural and anthropogenic aerosols. While it is difficult to disentangle the indirect effects of aerosols from the direct and semi-direct effects in reality, a numerical sensitivity experiment is carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which allows us to isolate indirect effects, all other effects being equal. The Mediterranean hydrological cycle has often been studied using regional climate model (RCM) simulations with parameterized convection, which is the approach we adopt in the present study. For this purpose, the Thompson aerosol-aware microphysics scheme is used in a pair of simulations run at 50 km resolution with extremely high and low aerosol concentrations. An additional pair of simulations has been performed at a convection-permitting resolution (3.3 km) to examine these effects without the use of parameterized convection. While the reduced radiative flux due to the direct effects of the aerosols is already known to reduce precipitation amounts, there is still no general agreement on the sign and magnitude of the aerosol indirect forcing effect on precipitation, with various processes competing with each other. Although some processes tend to enhance precipitation amounts, some others tend to reduce them. In these simulations, increased aerosol loads lead to weaker precipitation in the parameterized (low-resolution) configuration. The fact that a similar result is obtained for a selected area in the convection-permitting (high-resolution) configuration allows for physical interpretations. By examining the key variables in the model outputs, we propose a causal chain that links the aerosol

  10. The importance of regional models in assessing canine cancer incidences in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boo, Gianluca; Leyk, Stefan; Brunsdon, Christopher; Graf, Ramona; Pospischil, Andreas; Fabrikant, Sara Irina

    2018-01-01

    Fitting canine cancer incidences through a conventional regression model assumes constant statistical relationships across the study area in estimating the model coefficients. However, it is often more realistic to consider that these relationships may vary over space. Such a condition, known as spatial non-stationarity, implies that the model coefficients need to be estimated locally. In these kinds of local models, the geographic scale, or spatial extent, employed for coefficient estimation may also have a pervasive influence. This is because important variations in the local model coefficients across geographic scales may impact the understanding of local relationships. In this study, we fitted canine cancer incidences across Swiss municipal units through multiple regional models. We computed diagnostic summaries across the different regional models, and contrasted them with the diagnostics of the conventional regression model, using value-by-alpha maps and scalograms. The results of this comparative assessment enabled us to identify variations in the goodness-of-fit and coefficient estimates. We detected spatially non-stationary relationships, in particular, for the variables related to biological risk factors. These variations in the model coefficients were more important at small geographic scales, making a case for the need to model canine cancer incidences locally in contrast to more conventional global approaches. However, we contend that prior to undertaking local modeling efforts, a deeper understanding of the effects of geographic scale is needed to better characterize and identify local model relationships.

  11. Modeling species distributions from heterogeneous data for the biogeographic regionalization of the European bryophyte flora.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rubén G Mateo

    Full Text Available The definition of biogeographic regions provides a fundamental framework for a range of basic and applied questions in biogeography, evolutionary biology, systematics and conservation. Previous research suggested that environmental forcing results in highly congruent regionalization patterns across taxa, but that the size and number of regions depends on the dispersal ability of the taxa considered. We produced a biogeographic regionalization of European bryophytes and hypothesized that (1 regions defined for bryophytes would differ from those defined for other taxa due to the highly specific eco-physiology of the group and (2 their high dispersal ability would result in the resolution of few, large regions. Species distributions were recorded using 10,000 km2 MGRS pixels. Because of the lack of data across large portions of the area, species distribution models employing macroclimatic variables as predictors were used to determine the potential composition of empty pixels. K-means clustering analyses of the pixels based on their potential species composition were employed to define biogeographic regions. The optimal number of regions was determined by v-fold cross-validation and Moran's I statistic. The spatial congruence of the regions identified from their potential bryophyte assemblages with large-scale vegetation patterns is at odds with our primary hypothesis. This reinforces the notion that post-glacial migration patterns might have been much more similar in bryophytes and vascular plants than previously thought. The substantially lower optimal number of clusters and the absence of nested patterns within the main biogeographic regions, as compared to identical analyses in vascular plants, support our second hypothesis. The modelling approach implemented here is, however, based on many assumptions that are discussed but can only be tested when additional data on species distributions become available, highlighting the substantial

  12. Comparison of Two Grid Refinement Approaches for High Resolution Regional Climate Modeling: MPAS vs WRF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, L.; Hagos, S. M.; Rauscher, S.; Ringler, T.

    2012-12-01

    This study compares two grid refinement approaches using global variable resolution model and nesting for high-resolution regional climate modeling. The global variable resolution model, Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), and the limited area model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are compared in an idealized aqua-planet context with a focus on the spatial and temporal characteristics of tropical precipitation simulated by the models using the same physics package from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4). For MPAS, simulations have been performed with a quasi-uniform resolution global domain at coarse (1 degree) and high (0.25 degree) resolution, and a variable resolution domain with a high-resolution region at 0.25 degree configured inside a coarse resolution global domain at 1 degree resolution. Similarly, WRF has been configured to run on a coarse (1 degree) and high (0.25 degree) resolution tropical channel domain as well as a nested domain with a high-resolution region at 0.25 degree nested two-way inside the coarse resolution (1 degree) tropical channel. The variable resolution or nested simulations are compared against the high-resolution simulations that serve as virtual reality. Both MPAS and WRF simulate 20-day Kelvin waves propagating through the high-resolution domains fairly unaffected by the change in resolution. In addition, both models respond to increased resolution with enhanced precipitation. Grid refinement induces zonal asymmetry in precipitation (heating), accompanied by zonal anomalous Walker like circulations and standing Rossby wave signals. However, there are important differences between the anomalous patterns in MPAS and WRF due to differences in the grid refinement approaches and sensitivity of model physics to grid resolution. This study highlights the need for "scale aware" parameterizations in variable resolution and nested regional models.

  13. ANALYSIS AND PLANNING OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT - CONTEXTUAL VARIABLES TO DEVELOP A MODEL FOR MONITORING FINANCIAL INDICATORS AT REGIONAL LEVEL.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CRIS TINA GRADEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Application of quantitative techniques in regional analysis can provide an understanding of both the change in time of regional economic performance and the interdependencies between economic sectors, including the use of projections to test the potential future development of the region. Qualitative techniques allow also the explanation of the reason for regional development patterns occurring in a region and the improvement of analysts' ability to reflect on the results and economic opportunities for a future based on collective experience, wisdom and judgment of the actors in region economies.

  14. A systematic intercomparison of regional flood frequency analysis models in a simulation framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganora, Daniele; Laio, Francesco; Claps, Pierluigi

    2015-04-01

    Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve (or other discharge-related variables), based on the fundamental concept of substituting temporal information at a site (no data or short time series) by exploiting observations at other sites (spatial information). Different RFA paradigms exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest. Despite the wide use of such methodology, a systematic comparison between these paradigms has not been performed. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison: we thus synthetically generate data through Monte Carlo simulations for a number of (virtual) stations, following a GEV parent distribution; different scenarios can be created to represent different spatial heterogeneity patterns by manipulating the parameters of the parent distribution at each station (e.g. with a linear variation in space of the shape parameter of the GEV). A special case is the homogeneous scenario where each station record is sampled from the same parent distribution. For each scenario and each simulation, different regional models are applied to evaluate the 200-year growth factor at each station. Results are than compared to the exact growth factor of each station, which is known in our virtual world. Considered regional approaches include: (i) a single growth curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model based on cluster analysis which search for an adequate number of homogeneous subregions; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially-smooth estimation procedure based on linear regressions.. A further benchmark model is the at-site estimate based on the analysis of the local record. A comprehensive analysis of the results of the simulations shows that, if the scenario is homogeneous (no spatial variability), all the regional approaches

  15. Linear collider capabilities for supersymmetry in dark matter allowed regions of the mSUGRA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baer, Howard; Belyaev, Alexander; Krupovnickas, Tadas; Tata, Xerxes

    2004-01-01

    Recent comparisons of minimal supergravity (mSUGRA) model predictions with WMAP measurements of the neutralino relic density point to preferred regions of model parameter space. We investigate the reach of linear colliders (LC) with (s) 1/2 = 0.5 and 1 TeV for SUSY in the framework of the mSUGRA model. We find that LCs can cover the entire stau co-annihilation region provided tan βalt30. In the hyperbolic branch/focus point (HB/FP) region of parameter space, specialized cuts are suggested to increase the reach in this important 'dark matter allowed' area. In the case of the HB/FP region, the reach of a LC extends well past the reach of the CERN LHC. We examine a case study in the HB/FP region, and show that the MSSM parameters μ and M 2 can be sufficiently well-measured to demonstrate that one would indeed be in the HB/FP region, where the lightest chargino and neutralino have a substantial higgsino component. (author)

  16. Improvement of Measurement and Evaluation of Regional Authorities Activity: Model and Statistical Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrova Elena Аleksandrovna

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Formation of strategy of long-term social and economic development is a basis for effective functioning of executive authorities and the assessment of its efficiency in general. Modern theories of assessment of public administration productivity are guided by the process approach when it is expedient to carry out the formation of business processes of regional executive authorities according to strategic indicators of territorial development. In this regard, there is a problem of modeling of interrelation of indicators of social and economic development of the region and quantitative indices of results of business processes of executive authorities. At the first stage of modeling, two main directions of strategic development, namely innovative and investment activity of regional economic systems are considered. In this regard, the work presents the results of modeling the interrelation between the indicators of regional social and economic development and innovative and investment activity. Therefore, for carrying out the analysis, the social and economic system of the region is presented in space of the main indicators of social and economic development of the territory and indicators of innovative and investment activity. The analysis is made on values of the indicators calculated for regions of the Russian Federation during 2000, 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2011. It was revealed that strategic indicators of innovative and investment activity have the most significant impact on key signs of social and economic development.

  17. Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

  18. Correspondence of biological condition models of California streams at statewide and regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Jason T.; Brown, Larry R.; Rehn, Andrew C.; Waite, Ian R.; Ode, Peter R; Mazor, Raphael D; Schiff, Kenneth C

    2015-01-01

    We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model stream biological condition as measured by benthic macroinvertebrate taxonomic completeness, the ratio of observed to expected (O/E) taxa. Models were developed with and without exclusion of rare taxa at a site. BRT models are robust, requiring few assumptions compared with traditional modeling techniques such as multiple linear regression. The BRT models were constructed to provide baseline support to stressor delineation by identifying natural physiographic and human land use gradients affecting stream biological condition statewide and for eight ecological regions within the state, as part of the development of numerical biological objectives for California’s wadeable streams. Regions were defined on the basis of ecological, hydrologic, and jurisdictional factors and roughly corresponded with ecoregions. Physiographic and land use variables were derived from geographic information system coverages. The model for the entire state (n = 1,386) identified a composite measure of anthropogenic disturbance (the sum of urban, agricultural, and unmanaged roadside vegetation land cover) within the local watershed as the most important variable, explaining 56 % of the variance in O/E values. Models for individual regions explained between 51 and 84 % of the variance in O/E values. Measures of human disturbance were important in the three coastal regions. In the South Coast and Coastal Chaparral, local watershed measures of urbanization were the most important variables related to biological condition, while in the North Coast the composite measure of human disturbance at the watershed scale was most important. In the two mountain regions, natural gradients were most important, including slope, precipitation, and temperature. The remaining three regions had relatively small sample sizes (n ≤ 75 sites) and had models that gave mixed results. Understanding the spatial scale at which land use and land cover affect

  19. A Regional Earth System Model of the Northeast Corridor: Analyzing 21st Century Climate and Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorosmarty, C. J.; Duchin, F.; Melillo, J. M.; Wollheim, W. M.; Gonzalez, J.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Rosenzweig, B.; Yang, P.; Lengyel, F.; Fekete, B. M.

    2012-12-01

    The Northeast region (NE) exhibits many of the changes taking place across the Nation's landscapes and watersheds, yet also provides a unique lens through which to assess options for managing large-scale natural resource systems. We report here on a regional NSF-funded Earth System Modeling (EaSM) project, which has assembled an interdisciplinary research team from academia and government with expertise in physics, biogeochemistry, engineering, energy, economics, and policy engagement. The team is simultaneously studying the evolution of regional human-environment systems and seeking to improve the translation of research findings to the planning community. We hypothesize that there are regionally-significant consequences of human decisions on environmental systems of the NE, expressed through the action of both natural and engineered human systems that dictate the region's biogeophysical state, ecosystem services, energy and economic output. Our central goal is: To build a Northeast Regional Earth System Model (NE-RESM) that improves understanding and capacity to forecast the implications of planning decisions on the region's environment, ecosystem services, energy systems and economy through the 21st century. We are using scenario experiments to test our hypothesis and to make forecasts about the future. We see the proposed research as a major step forward in developing a capacity to diagnose and understand the state of large, interacting human-natural systems. Major foci include: the application of meso-scale atmospheric physics models to drive terrestrial-aquatic ecosystem models; a linked ecosystem services accounting tool; geospatial modeling of anthropogenic GHG emissions and biotic source/sinks at improved space/time resolutions; and meso-economic input-output model to evaluate the impacts of ecosystem services constraints on subregional economies. The presentation will report on recent progress across three strategic planning fronts, which are important to

  20. An evolutionary model for protein-coding regions with conserved RNA structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jakob Skou; Forsberg, Roald; Meyer, Irmtraud Margret

    2004-01-01

    in the RNA structure. The overlap of these fundamental dependencies is sufficient to cause "contagious" context dependencies which cascade across many nucleotide sites. Such large-scale dependencies challenge the use of traditional phylogenetic models in evolutionary inference because they explicitly assume...... components of traditional phylogenetic models. We applied this to a data set of full-genome sequences from the hepatitis C virus where five RNA structures are mapped within the coding region. This allowed us to partition the effects of selection on different structural elements and to test various hypotheses......Here we present a model of nucleotide substitution in protein-coding regions that also encode the formation of conserved RNA structures. In such regions, apparent evolutionary context dependencies exist, both between nucleotides occupying the same codon and between nucleotides forming a base pair...

  1. Field Investigation and Modeling Development for Hydrological and Carbon Cycles in Southwest Karst Region of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, X. B.

    2017-12-01

    It is required to understanding water cycle and carbon cycle processes for water resource management and pollution prevention and global warming influence in southwest karst region of China. Lijiang river basin is selected as our study region. Interdisciplinary field and laboratory experiments with various technologies are conducted to characterize the karst aquifers in detail. Key processes in the karst water cycle and carbon cycle are determined. Based on the MODFLOW-CFP model, new watershed flow and carbon cycle models are developed coupled subsurface and surface water flow models. Our study focus on the karst springshed in Mao village, the mechanisms coupling carbon cycle and water cycle are explored. This study provides basic theory and simulation method for water resource management and groundwater pollution prevention in China karst region.

  2. Development of a landscape integrity model framework to support regional conservation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walston, Leroy J; Hartmann, Heidi M

    2018-01-01

    Land managers increasingly rely upon landscape assessments to understand the status of natural resources and identify conservation priorities. Many of these landscape planning efforts rely on geospatial models that characterize the ecological integrity of the landscape. These general models utilize measures of habitat disturbance and human activity to map indices of ecological integrity. We built upon these modeling frameworks by developing a Landscape Integrity Index (LII) model using geospatial datasets of the human footprint, as well as incorporation of other indicators of ecological integrity such as biodiversity and vegetation departure. Our LII model serves as a general indicator of ecological integrity in a regional context of human activity, biodiversity, and change in habitat composition. We also discuss the application of the LII framework in two related coarse-filter landscape conservation approaches to expand the size and connectedness of protected areas as regional mitigation for anticipated land-use changes.

  3. Revised model of regional groundwater flow in the Whiteshell research area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ophori, D.U.; Brown, A.; Chan, T.; Davison, C.C.; Gascoyne, M.; Scheier, N.W.; Stanchell, F.W.; Stevenson, D.R.

    1996-08-01

    Steady-state regional groundwater flow of the Whiteshell Research Area (WRA) has been simulated in order to evaluate alternate locations for a hypothetical nuclear fuel waste disposal vault that maximize the retention of vault contaminants in long, slow groundwater flow paths through the geosphere. A revised conceptual model of the hydrogeologic conditions was constructed using all the information obtained from field investigations at the WRA between 1977 and 1994. All the simulations were performed using AECL's three-dimensional finite element code, MOTIF. A base-case simulation was performed using average value estimates of hydraulic parameters obtained from the field data, and freshwater was assumed to occur in the entire groundwater flow region. The simulated freshwater heads did not compare favourably with the freshwater beads that were derived from the field data. The simulated equivalent freshwater heads for the final calibrated model compared reasonably well with measured heads in the network of boreholes at the WRA. The simulated recharge rate for the final model was 4.8 mm/a Most of the groundwater flow in the model occurred in local systems between ground surface and a depth of 1000 m. A particle tracking code, TRACK3D, was used to determine the pathways, travel times and exit locations of particles released from different depths in the groundwater velocity field of the calibrated model. The exit locations of these pathways were found to be controlled by the network of regional fracture zones in the model. These results were used to select a location for a hypothetical nuclear fuel waste disposal vault in the regional groundwater flow model that maximizes the retention of vault contaminants in long, slow groundwater flow paths. A smaller region of about 75 km 2 was identified around this location for the development of a local geosphere model. (author). 32 refs., 4 tabs., 29 figs

  4. The design and application of a radiological consequence model for tropical and subtropical regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domel, R.U.; Harris, F.F.; Crawford, J.

    1997-01-01

    The post Chernobyl era has seen the development of a plethora of radiological consequence models. At ANSTO, a model is being developed with a user-friendly interface which will assess the radiological consequences, after an incident, in tropical and sub-tropical climates. The model combines specific regional dispersion and deposition data to determine the dose to man via the major pathways of external and internal irradiation. The external irradiation data will need to include lifestyle information such as time spent L indoors/outdoors, the high/low activity times of the different groups of people (especially critical groups) and shielding factors for housing. The internal irradiation data requires food consumption values, effect of food processing and transfer parameters (soil to plant, plant to animal) to be obtained for tropical and sub-tropical regions. The model allows the user to specify the radionuclide of interest, the age of the person receiving l the dose, race, dietary components and lifestyle. The operator may use a number of default categories, but regional information may also be entered and incorporated into the radiological model allowing assessment of dose to critical groups using site specific data. Initially, the model will deal with the South East Asian region but flexibility has been incorporated into the design to allow application in other regions. A geographic information system is used for display of all input and output data allowing quick access to not only the results but also the underlying assumptions. The model also has portability across computer platforms. The model has been developed to provide a tool for directing future research, has application as a planing tool for emergency response operations but its priority lies in understanding the behaviour of radionuclides in the tropical and sub-tropical environments and their effect on humankind

  5. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  6. Modeling and validation of on-road CO2 emissions inventories at the urban regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brondfield, Max N.; Hutyra, Lucy R.; Gately, Conor K.; Raciti, Steve M.; Peterson, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    On-road emissions are a major contributor to rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. In this study, we applied a downscaling methodology based on commonly available spatial parameters to model on-road CO 2 emissions at the 1 × 1 km scale for the Boston, MA region and tested our approach with surface-level CO 2 observations. Using two previously constructed emissions inventories with differing spatial patterns and underlying data sources, we developed regression models based on impervious surface area and volume-weighted road density that could be scaled to any resolution. We found that the models accurately reflected the inventories at their original scales (R 2 = 0.63 for both models) and exhibited a strong relationship with observed CO 2 mixing ratios when downscaled across the region. Moreover, the improved spatial agreement of the models over the original inventories confirmed that either product represents a viable basis for downscaling in other metropolitan regions, even with limited data. - Highlights: ► We model two on-road CO 2 emissions inventories using common spatial parameters. ► Independent CO 2 observations are used to validate the emissions models. ► The downscaled emissions models capture the urban spatial heterogeneity of Boston. ► Emissions estimates show a strong non-linear relationship with observed CO 2 . ► Our study is repeatable, even in areas with limited data. - This work presents a new, reproducible methodology for downscaling and validating on-road CO 2 emissions estimates.

  7. Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bramati, Maria Caterina

    2016-01-01

    Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. - Highlights: • We use an econometric model as a tool for assessing the effects of regional policies on the development of economic activities related to the use of the sea and on the impact on the marine environment. • Through scenario simulation we provide strategic guidelines for policy makers and economic planners • The model features feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas.

  8. Development of a regional hydrologic soil model and application to the Beerze-Reusel drainage basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolditz, O.; Du, Y.; Buerger, C.; Delfs, J.; Kuntz, D.; Beinhorn, M.; Hess, M.; Wang, W.; Grift, B. van der; Stroet, C. te

    2007-01-01

    The soil compartment is an important interface between the atmosphere and the subsurface hydrosphere. In this paper a conceptual approach for regional hydrologic soil modelling (RHSM) is presented, which provides two important qualities for modelling. First, the soil compartment is directly coupled to the atmosphere via the land surface and to the aquifers. Second, extremely fine (5 cm vertical) resolutions of the soil system can be realized at regional scales (several hundreds of km 2 ). This high-resolution modelling could be achieved by parallel computation techniques. The RHSM approach is applied to the Beerze-Reusel drainage basin, which belongs to the Meuse River basin. Moisture transport in the soil system was calculated with extremely high vertical resolution at a regional scale based on rainfall-evaporation data for the year 2000. As a result, highly resolved regional groundwater recharge pattern addressing the heterogeneity of soil systems could be determined. - A real case application of concept of regional hydrologic soil modelling is presented

  9. A surrogate-based sensitivity quantification and Bayesian inversion of a regional groundwater flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mingjie; Izady, Azizallah; Abdalla, Osman A.; Amerjeed, Mansoor

    2018-02-01

    Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides an explicit framework for stochastic calibration of hydrogeologic models accounting for uncertainties; however, the MCMC sampling entails a large number of model calls, and could easily become computationally unwieldy if the high-fidelity hydrogeologic model simulation is time consuming. This study proposes a surrogate-based Bayesian framework to address this notorious issue, and illustrates the methodology by inverse modeling a regional MODFLOW model. The high-fidelity groundwater model is approximated by a fast statistical model using Bagging Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (BMARS) algorithm, and hence the MCMC sampling can be efficiently performed. In this study, the MODFLOW model is developed to simulate the groundwater flow in an arid region of Oman consisting of mountain-coast aquifers, and used to run representative simulations to generate training dataset for BMARS model construction. A BMARS-based Sobol' method is also employed to efficiently calculate input parameter sensitivities, which are used to evaluate and rank their importance for the groundwater flow model system. According to sensitivity analysis, insensitive parameters are screened out of Bayesian inversion of the MODFLOW model, further saving computing efforts. The posterior probability distribution of input parameters is efficiently inferred from the prescribed prior distribution using observed head data, demonstrating that the presented BMARS-based Bayesian framework is an efficient tool to reduce parameter uncertainties of a groundwater system.

  10. Spatial Region Estimation for Autonomous CoT Clustering Using Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joon‐young Jung

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a hierarchical dual filtering (HDF algorithm to estimate the spatial region between a Cloud of Things (CoT gateway and an Internet of Things (IoT device. The accuracy of the spatial region estimation is important for autonomous CoT clustering. We conduct spatial region estimation using a hidden Markov model (HMM with a raw Bluetooth received signal strength indicator (RSSI. However, the accuracy of the region estimation using the validation data is only 53.8%. To increase the accuracy of the spatial region estimation, the HDF algorithm removes the high‐frequency signals hierarchically, and alters the parameters according to whether the IoT device moves. The accuracy of spatial region estimation using a raw RSSI, Kalman filter, and HDF are compared to evaluate the effectiveness of the HDF algorithm. The success rate and root mean square error (RMSE of all regions are 0.538, 0.622, and 0.75, and 0.997, 0.812, and 0.5 when raw RSSI, a Kalman filter, and HDF are used, respectively. The HDF algorithm attains the best results in terms of the success rate and RMSE of spatial region estimation using HMM.

  11. High-resolution regional climate model evaluation using variable-resolution CESM over California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.; Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the effect of climate change at regional scales remains a topic of intensive research. Though computational constraints remain a problem, high horizontal resolution is needed to represent topographic forcing, which is a significant driver of local climate variability. Although regional climate models (RCMs) have traditionally been used at these scales, variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) have recently arisen as an alternative for studying regional weather and climate allowing two-way interaction between these domains without the need for nudging. In this study, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling over California. Our variable-resolution simulations will focus on relatively high resolutions for climate assessment, namely 28km and 14km regional resolution, which are much more typical for dynamically downscaled studies. For comparison with the more widely used RCM method, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used for simulations at 27km and 9km. All simulations use the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) protocols. The time period is from 1979-01-01 to 2005-12-31 (UTC), and year 1979 was discarded as spin up time. The mean climatology across California's diverse climate zones, including temperature and precipitation, is analyzed and contrasted with the Weather Research and Forcasting (WRF) model (as a traditional RCM), regional reanalysis, gridded observational datasets and uniform high-resolution CESM at 0.25 degree with the finite volume (FV) dynamical core. The results show that variable-resolution CESM is competitive in representing regional climatology on both annual and seasonal time scales. This assessment adds value to the use of VRGCMs for projecting climate change over the coming century and improve our understanding of both past and future regional climate related to fine

  12. Climate change projections for Greek viticulture as simulated by a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Koundouras, Stefanos

    2017-07-01

    Viticulture represents an important economic activity for Greek agriculture. Winegrapes are cultivated in many areas covering the whole Greek territory, due to the favorable soil and climatic conditions. Given the dependence of viticulture on climate, the vitivinicultural sector is expected to be affected by possible climatic changes. The present study is set out to investigate the impacts of climatic change in Greek viticulture, using nine bioclimatic indices for the period 1981-2100. For this purpose, reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and data from the regional climatic model Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) are used. It was found that the examined regional climate model estimates satisfactorily these bioclimatic indices. The results of the study show that the increasing trend of temperature and drought will affect all wine-producing regions in Greece. In vineyards in mountainous regions, the impact is positive, while in islands and coastal regions, it is negative. Overall, it should be highlighted that for the first time that Greece is classified into common climatic characteristic categories, according to the international Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC system). According to the proposed classification, Greek viticulture regions are estimated to have similar climatic characteristics with the warmer wine-producing regions of the world up to the end of twenty-first century. Wine growers and winemakers should take the findings of the study under consideration in order to take measures for Greek wine sector adaptation and the continuation of high-quality wine production.

  13. Modeling the Impact of Uganda's Safe Male Circumcision Program: Implications for Age and Regional Targeting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kripke, Katharine; Vazzano, Andrea; Kirungi, William; Musinguzi, Joshua; Opio, Alex; Ssempebwa, Rhobbinah; Nakawunde, Susan; Kyobutungi, Sheila; Akao, Juliet N; Magala, Fred; Mwidu, George; Castor, Delivette; Njeuhmeli, Emmanuel

    2016-01-01

    Uganda aims to provide safe male circumcision (SMC) to 80% of men ages 15-49 by 2016. To date, only 2 million men have received SMC of the 4.2 million men required. In response to age and regional trends in SMC uptake, the country sought to re-examine its targets with respect to age and subnational region, to assess the program's progress, and to refine the implementation approach. The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), was used in conjunction with incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM) to conduct this analysis. Population, births, deaths, and HIV incidence and prevalence were used to populate the model. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the 2011 AIDS Indicator Survey. Uganda can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising men ages 20-34. This group will also require the fewest circumcisions for each HIV infection averted. Focusing on men ages 10-19 will offer the greatest impact over a 15-year period, while focusing on men ages 15-34 offers the most cost-effective strategy over the same period. A regional analysis showed little variation in cost-effectiveness of scaling up SMC across eight regions. Scale-up is cost-saving in all regions. There is geographic variability in program progress, highlighting two regions with low baseline rates of circumcision where additional efforts will be needed. Focusing SMC efforts on specific age groups and regions may help to accelerate Uganda's SMC program progress. Policy makers in Uganda have already used model outputs in planning efforts, proposing males ages 10-34 as a priority group for SMC in the 2014 application to the Global Fund's new funding model. As scale-up continues, the country should also consider a greater effort to expand SMC in regions with low MC prevalence.

  14. Modeling the Impact of Uganda's Safe Male Circumcision Program: Implications for Age and Regional Targeting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharine Kripke

    Full Text Available Uganda aims to provide safe male circumcision (SMC to 80% of men ages 15-49 by 2016. To date, only 2 million men have received SMC of the 4.2 million men required. In response to age and regional trends in SMC uptake, the country sought to re-examine its targets with respect to age and subnational region, to assess the program's progress, and to refine the implementation approach.The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0, was used in conjunction with incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM to conduct this analysis. Population, births, deaths, and HIV incidence and prevalence were used to populate the model. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the 2011 AIDS Indicator Survey. Uganda can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising men ages 20-34. This group will also require the fewest circumcisions for each HIV infection averted. Focusing on men ages 10-19 will offer the greatest impact over a 15-year period, while focusing on men ages 15-34 offers the most cost-effective strategy over the same period. A regional analysis showed little variation in cost-effectiveness of scaling up SMC across eight regions. Scale-up is cost-saving in all regions. There is geographic variability in program progress, highlighting two regions with low baseline rates of circumcision where additional efforts will be needed.Focusing SMC efforts on specific age groups and regions may help to accelerate Uganda's SMC program progress. Policy makers in Uganda have already used model outputs in planning efforts, proposing males ages 10-34 as a priority group for SMC in the 2014 application to the Global Fund's new funding model. As scale-up continues, the country should also consider a greater effort to expand SMC in regions with low MC prevalence.

  15. Modelling extreme dry spells in the Mediterranean region in connection with atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramblay, Yves; Hertig, Elke

    2018-04-01

    Long droughts periods can affect the Mediterranean region during the winter season, when most of annual precipitation occurs, and consequently have strong impacts on agriculture, groundwater levels and water resources. The goal of this study is to model annual maximum dry spells lengths (AMDSL) that occur during the extended winter season (October to April). The spatial patterns of extreme dry spells and their relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation were first investigated. Then, AMDSL were modelled using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions incorporating climatic covariates, to evaluate the dependences of extreme dry spells to synoptic patterns using an analogue approach. The data from a network of 160 rain gauges having daily precipitation measurements between 1960 and 2009 are considered together with the ERA-20C reanalysis of the 20th century to provide atmospheric variables (geopotential heights, humidity, winds). A regional classification of both the occurrence and the duration of AMDSL helped to distinguish three spatially contiguous regions in which the regional distributions were found homogeneous. From composite analysis, significant positive anomalies in geopotential height (Z500) and negative anomalies in zonal wind (U850) and relative and specific humidity (S850, R850) were found to be associated with AMDSL in the three regions and provided the reference to build analogue days. Finally, non-stationary GEV models have been compared, in which the location and scale parameters are related to different atmospheric indices. Results indicates, at the whole Mediterranean scale, that positives anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index and to a lesser extent the Mediterranean Oscillation index are linked to longer extreme dry spells in the majority of stations. For the three regions identified, the frequency of U850 negative anomalies over North Africa is significantly associated with the magnitude of AMDSL. AMDL are also

  16. Inverse modeling of the terrestrial carbon flux in China with flux covariance among inverted regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Jiang, F.; Chen, J. M.; Ju, W.; Wang, H.

    2011-12-01

    Quantitative understanding of the role of ocean and terrestrial biosphere in the global carbon cycle, their response and feedback to climate change is required for the future projection of the global climate. China has the largest amount of anthropogenic CO2 emission, diverse terrestrial ecosystems and an unprecedented rate of urbanization. Thus information on spatial and temporal distributions of the terrestrial carbon flux in China is of great importance in understanding the global carbon cycle. We developed a nested inversion with focus in China. Based on Transcom 22 regions for the globe, we divide China and its neighboring countries into 17 regions, making 39 regions in total for the globe. A Bayesian synthesis inversion is made to estimate the terrestrial carbon flux based on GlobalView CO2 data. In the inversion, GEOS-Chem is used as the transport model to develop the transport matrix. A terrestrial ecosystem model named BEPS is used to produce the prior surface flux to constrain the inversion. However, the sparseness of available observation stations in Asia poses a challenge to the inversion for the 17 small regions. To obtain additional constraint on the inversion, a prior flux covariance matrix is constructed using the BEPS model through analyzing the correlation in the net carbon flux among regions under variable climate conditions. The use of the covariance among different regions in the inversion effectively extends the information content of CO2 observations to more regions. The carbon flux over the 39 land and ocean regions are inverted for the period from 2004 to 2009. In order to investigate the impact of introducing the covariance matrix with non-zero off-diagonal values to the inversion, the inverted terrestrial carbon flux over China is evaluated against ChinaFlux eddy-covariance observations after applying an upscaling methodology.

  17. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  18. Combining super-ensembles and statistical emulation to improve a regional climate and vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Sarah, S.; McNeall, D. J.; Mote, P.; Betts, R. A.; Wallom, D.

    2017-12-01

    Changing regional patterns of surface temperature, precipitation, and humidity may cause ecosystem-scale changes in vegetation, altering the distribution of trees, shrubs, and grasses. A changing vegetation distribution, in turn, alters the albedo, latent heat flux, and carbon exchanged with the atmosphere with resulting feedbacks onto the regional climate. However, a wide range of earth-system processes that affect the carbon, energy, and hydrologic cycles occur at sub grid scales in climate models and must be parameterized. The appropriate parameter values in such parameterizations are often poorly constrained, leading to uncertainty in predictions of how the ecosystem will respond to changes in forcing. To better understand the sensitivity of regional climate to parameter selection and to improve regional climate and vegetation simulations, we used a large perturbed physics ensemble and a suite of statistical emulators. We dynamically downscaled a super-ensemble (multiple parameter sets and multiple initial conditions) of global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3p with the land-surface scheme MOSES2 and dynamic vegetation module TRIFFID. We simultaneously perturbed land surface parameters relating to the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and atmosphere in a large super-ensemble of regional climate simulations over the western US. Statistical emulation was used as a computationally cost-effective tool to explore uncertainties in interactions. Regions of parameter space that did not satisfy observational constraints were eliminated and an ensemble of parameter sets that reduce regional biases and span a range of plausible interactions among earth system processes were selected. This study demonstrated that by combining super-ensemble simulations with statistical emulation, simulations of regional climate could be improved while simultaneously accounting for a range of plausible land

  19. Uncertainty Source of Modeled Ecosystem Productivity in East Asian Monsoon Region: A Traceability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, E.; Xia, J.; Huang, K.; Ito, A.; Arain, M. A.; Jain, A. K.; Poulter, B.; Peng, C.; Hayes, D. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Tian, H.; Mao, J.; Fisher, J.; Schaefer, K. M.; Huang, M.; Peng, S.; Wang, W.

    2017-12-01

    East Asian monsoon region, benefits from sufficient water-heat availability and increasing nitrogen deposition, represents significantly higher net ecosystem productivity than the same latitudes of Europe-Africa and North America. A better understanding of major contributions to the uncertainties of terrestrial carbon cycle in this region is greatly important for evaluating the global carbon balance. This study analyzed the key carbon processes and parameters derived from a series of terrestrial biosphere models. A wide range of inter-model disagreement on GPP was found in China's subtropical regions. Then, this large difference was traced to a few traceable components included in terrestrial carbon cycle. The increase in ensemble mean GPP over 1901-2010 was predominantly resulted from increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, while high frequent land-use change over this region showed a slightly negative effect on GPP. However, inter-model differences of GPP were mainly attributed to the baseline simulations without changes in external forcing. According to the variance decomposition, the large spread in simulated GPP was well explained by the differences in leaf area index (LAI) and specific leaf area (SLA) among models. In addition, the underlying errors in simulated GPP propagate through the model and introduce some additional errors to the simulation of NPP and biomass. By comparing the simulations with satellite-derived, data-oriented and observation-based datasets, we further found that GPP, vegetation carbon turn-over time, aboveground biomass, LAI and SLA were all overestimated in most of the models while biomass distribution in leaves was significantly underestimated. The results of this study indicate that model performance on ecosystem productivity in East Asian monsoon region can be improved by a more realistic representation of leaf functional traits.

  20. Sensitivity experiments of a regional climate model to the different convective schemes over Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armand J, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, version 4 of the regional climate model (RegCM4) is used to perform 6 years simulation including one year for spin-up (from January 2001 to December 2006) over Central Africa using four convective schemes: The Emmanuel scheme (MIT), the Grell scheme with Arakawa-Schulbert closure assumption (GAS), the Grell scheme with Fritsch-Chappell closure assumption (GFC) and the Anthes-Kuo scheme (Kuo). We have investigated the ability of the model to simulate precipitation, surface temperature, wind and aerosols optical depth. Emphasis in the model results were made in December-January-February (DJF) and July-August-September (JAS) periods. Two subregions have been identified for more specific analysis namely: zone 1 which corresponds to the sahel region mainly classified as desert and steppe and zone 2 which is a region spanning the tropical rain forest and is characterised by a bimodal rain regime. We found that regardless of periods or simulated parameters, MIT scheme generally has a tendency to overestimate. The GAS scheme is more suitable in simulating the aforementioned parameters, as well as the diurnal cycle of precipitations everywhere over the study domain irrespective of the season. In JAS, model results are similar in the representation of regional wind circulation. Apart from the MIT scheme, all the convective schemes give the same trends in aerosols optical depth simulations. Additional experiment reveals that the use of BATS instead of Zeng scheme to calculate ocean flux appears to improve the quality of the model simulations.

  1. GIS Data Modeling of a Regional Geological Structure by Integrating Geometric and Semantic Expressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HE Handong

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Using GIS, data models of geology via geometric descriptions and expressions are being developed. However, the role played by these data models in terms of the description and expression of geological structure phenomenon is limited. To improve the semantic information in geological GIS data models, this study adopts an object-oriented method that describes and expresses the geometric and semantic features of the geological structure phenomenon using geological objects and designs a data model of regional geological structures by integrating geometry and semantics. Moreover, the study designs a semantic "vocabulary-explanation-graph" method for describing the geological phenomenon of structures. Based on the semantic features of regional geological structures and a linear classification method, it divides the regional geological structure phenomenon into 3 divisions, 10 groups, 33 classes and defines the element set and element class. Moreover, it builds the basic geometric network for geological elements based on the geometric and semantic relations among geological objects. Using the ArcGIS Diagrammer Geodatabase, it considers the regional geological structure of the Ning-Zhen Mountains to verify the data model, and the results indicate a high practicability.

  2. Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shuyan; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

    2014-12-01

    Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the United States, and then compared the models with inputs from a General Circulation Model (hereafter GCM-based models) and a downscaled Regional Climate Model (hereafter, RCM-based models).We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present (1990-1999) to the future (2046-2055). RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM-based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa ( Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk), GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inputs. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.

  3. A review of operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kukkonen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed in this article include how weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry models are integrated into chemical weather forecasting systems, how physical processes are incorporated into the models through parameterization schemes, how the model architecture affects the predicted variables, and how air chemistry and aerosol processes are formulated. In addition, we discuss sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the models, user operational requirements, such as model availability and documentation, and output availability and dissemination. In this manner, this article allows for the evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various modelling systems and modelling approaches. Finally, this article highlights the most prominent gaps of knowledge for chemical weather forecasting models and suggests potential priorities for future research directions, for the following selected focus areas: emission inventories, the integration of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport models, boundary conditions and nesting of models, data assimilation of the various chemical species, improved understanding and parameterization of physical processes, better evaluation of models against data and the construction of model ensembles.

  4. Modeling wave trains in coastal regions; Modelagem de trens de ondas em regioes costeiras

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luz, Ana M.S.; Nachbin, A. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Matematica Pura e Aplicada (IMPA)

    2008-07-01

    Our goal is to present a model that captures how the sea bottom topography or submarine structures can influence the evolution of water wave trains over a varying topography at intermediate depth. To obtain such a model, we consider Euler equations for inviscid fluids and we perform the asymptotic simplification of the nonlinear potential theory equations together with the method of multiple scales to get a reduced model. Such a model is called reduced because it simplifies nonlinear potential theory from two spatial dimensions to one dimension along the free boundary. We consider a varying topography at the bottom and/or the presence of submarine structures together with a free boundary at the surface of the sea. For modeling such a geometry we transform our Cartesian system into curvilinear coordinates through a conformal mapping that maps the original physical domain into a simpler domain (a strip). This modeling strategy allows us to capture and understand the dynamics of water waves in regions where offshore exploration activity already exists or not. Through an efficient model we can get important information regarding the dynamics of waves in coastal regions and also questions on the viability of oil and gas recovery in these regions. (author)

  5. A computer simulation model to compute the radiation transfer of mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuguang; Zhao, Feng; Song, Rui

    2011-11-01

    In mountainous regions, the radiometric signal recorded at the sensor depends on a number of factors such as sun angle, atmospheric conditions, surface cover type, and topography. In this paper, a computer simulation model of radiation transfer is designed and evaluated. This model implements the Monte Carlo ray-tracing techniques and is specifically dedicated to the study of light propagation in mountainous regions. The radiative processes between sun light and the objects within the mountainous region are realized by using forward Monte Carlo ray-tracing methods. The performance of the model is evaluated through detailed comparisons with the well-established 3D computer simulation model: RGM (Radiosity-Graphics combined Model) based on the same scenes and identical spectral parameters, which shows good agreements between these two models' results. By using the newly developed computer model, series of typical mountainous scenes are generated to analyze the physical mechanism of mountainous radiation transfer. The results show that the effects of the adjacent slopes are important for deep valleys and they particularly affect shadowed pixels, and the topographic effect needs to be considered in mountainous terrain before accurate inferences from remotely sensed data can be made.

  6. The implementation of sea ice model on a regional high-resolution scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Siva; Zakharov, Igor; Bobby, Pradeep; McGuire, Peter

    2015-09-01

    The availability of high-resolution atmospheric/ocean forecast models, satellite data and access to high-performance computing clusters have provided capability to build high-resolution models for regional ice condition simulation. The paper describes the implementation of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) on a regional scale at high resolution. The advantage of the model is its ability to include oceanographic parameters (e.g., currents) to provide accurate results. The sea ice simulation was performed over Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea to retrieve important parameters such as ice concentration, thickness, ridging, and drift. Two different forcing models, one with low resolution and another with a high resolution, were used for the estimation of sensitivity of model results. Sea ice behavior over 7 years was simulated to analyze ice formation, melting, and conditions in the region. Validation was based on comparing model results with remote sensing data. The simulated ice concentration correlated well with Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) and Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF) data. Visual comparison of ice thickness trends estimated from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite (SMOS) agreed with the simulation for year 2010-2011.

  7. Model Effects on GLAS-Based Regional Estimates of Forest Biomass and Carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Ross

    2008-01-01

    ICESat/GLAS waveform data are used to estimate biomass and carbon on a 1.27 million sq km study area. the Province of Quebec, Canada, below treeline. The same input data sets and sampling design are used in conjunction with four different predictive models to estimate total aboveground dry forest biomass and forest carbon. The four models include nonstratified and stratified versions of a multiple linear model where either biomass or (square root of) biomass serves as the dependent variable. The use of different models in Quebec introduces differences in Provincial biomass estimates of up to 0.35 Gt (range 4.942+/-0.28 Gt to 5.29+/-0.36 Gt). The results suggest that if different predictive models are used to estimate regional carbon stocks in different epochs, e.g., y2005, y2015, one might mistakenly infer an apparent aboveground carbon "change" of, in this case, 0.18 Gt, or approximately 7% of the aboveground carbon in Quebec, due solely to the use of different predictive models. These findings argue for model consistency in future, LiDAR-based carbon monitoring programs. Regional biomass estimates from the four GLAS models are compared to ground estimates derived from an extensive network of 16,814 ground plots located in southern Quebec. Stratified models proved to be more accurate and precise than either of the two nonstratified models tested.

  8. Validating a continental-scale groundwater diffuse pollution model using regional datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouedraogo, Issoufou; Defourny, Pierre; Vanclooster, Marnik

    2017-12-11

    In this study, we assess the validity of an African-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrates. In a previous study, we identified a statistical continental-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrate. The model was identified using a pan-African meta-analysis of available nitrate groundwater pollution studies. The model was implemented in both Random Forest (RF) and multiple regression formats. For both approaches, we collected as predictors a comprehensive GIS database of 13 spatial attributes, related to land use, soil type, hydrogeology, topography, climatology, region typology, nitrogen fertiliser application rate, and population density. In this paper, we validate the continental-scale model of groundwater contamination by using a nitrate measurement dataset from three African countries. We discuss the issue of data availability, and quality and scale issues, as challenges in validation. Notwithstanding that the modelling procedure exhibited very good success using a continental-scale dataset (e.g. R 2  = 0.97 in the RF format using a cross-validation approach), the continental-scale model could not be used without recalibration to predict nitrate pollution at the country scale using regional data. In addition, when recalibrating the model using country-scale datasets, the order of model exploratory factors changes. This suggests that the structure and the parameters of a statistical spatially distributed groundwater degradation model for the African continent are strongly scale dependent.

  9. Transferability of species distribution models: a functional habitat approach for two regionally threatened butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanreusel, Wouter; Maes, Dirk; Van Dyck, Hans

    2007-02-01

    Numerous models for predicting species distribution have been developed for conservation purposes. Most of them make use of environmental data (e.g., climate, topography, land use) at a coarse grid resolution (often kilometres). Such approaches are useful for conservation policy issues including reserve-network selection. The efficiency of predictive models for species distribution is usually tested on the area for which they were developed. Although highly interesting from the point of view of conservation efficiency, transferability of such models to independent areas is still under debate. We tested the transferability of habitat-based predictive distribution models for two regionally threatened butterflies, the green hairstreak (Callophrys rubi) and the grayling (Hipparchia semele), within and among three nature reserves in northeastern Belgium. We built predictive models based on spatially detailed maps of area-wide distribution and density of ecological resources. We used resources directly related to ecological functions (host plants, nectar sources, shelter, microclimate) rather than environmental surrogate variables. We obtained models that performed well with few resource variables. All models were transferable--although to different degrees--among the independent areas within the same broad geographical region. We argue that habitat models based on essential functional resources could transfer better in space than models that use indirect environmental variables. Because functional variables can easily be interpreted and even be directly affected by terrain managers, these models can be useful tools to guide species-adapted reserve management.

  10. A model of regional primary production for use with coarse resolution satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prince, S. D.

    1991-01-01

    A model of crop primary production, which was originally developed to relate the amount of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) to net production in field studies, is discussed in the context of coarse resolution regional remote sensing of primary production. The model depends on an approximately linear relationship between APAR and the normalized difference vegetation index. A more comprehensive form of the conventional model is shown to be necessary when different physiological types of plants or heterogeneous vegetation types occur within the study area. The predicted variable in the new model is total assimilation (net production plus respiration) rather than net production alone or harvest yield.

  11. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  12. Evaluating the ability of regional models to predict local avian abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeBrun, Jaymi J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Miller, James R.

    2012-01-01

    Spatial modeling over broad scales can potentially direct conservation efforts to areas with high species-specific abundances. We examined the performance of regional models for predicting bird abundance at spatial scales typically addressed in conservation planning. Specifically, we used point count data on wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) and blue-winged warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera) from 2 time periods (1995-1998 and 2006-2007) to evaluate the ability of regional models derived via Bayesian hierarchical techniques to predict bird abundance. We developed models for each species within Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 23 in the upper midwestern United States at 800-ha, 8,000-ha, and approximately 80,000-ha scales. We obtained count data from the Breeding Bird Survey and land cover data from the National Land Cover Dataset (1992). We evaluated predictions from the best models, as defined by an information-theoretic criterion, using point count data collected within an ecological subregion of BCR 23 at 131 count stations in the 1990s and again in 2006-2007. Competing (Deviance Information Criteria rs = 0.57; P = 0.14), the survey period that most closely aligned with the time period of data used for regional model construction. Wood thrush models exhibited positive correlations with point count data for all survey areas and years combined (rs = 0.58, P ≤ 0.001). In comparison, blue-winged warbler models performed worse as time increased between the point count surveys and vintage of the model building data (rs = 0.03, P = 0.92 for Iowa and rs = 0.13, P = 0.51 for all areas, 2006-2007), likely related to the ephemeral nature of their preferred early successional habitat. Species abundance and sensitivity to changing habitat conditions seems to be an important factor in determining the predictive ability of regional models. Hierarchical models can be a useful tool for concentrating efforts at the scale of management units and should be one of many tools used by

  13. Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

    2016-12-01

    Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

  14. Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperber, Kenneth R.; Participating AMIP Modelling Groups

    1999-05-01

    Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

  15. The generalized model of organization and planning of regional gas supply monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria V. Shevchenko

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available At the moment, gas is one of the most promising types of fuel in Ukraine. In this regard, the problems associated with its transportation in the regional system of gas supply are relevant. Now it is not completely solved and needs detailed study the problem of monitoring the regional gas supply system. Aim: The aim of the study is to improve the efficiency of the regional gas supply system at the expense of the organization and planning of gas transport monitoring and, in the future, the synthesis of the monitoring system of regional gas supply. Materials and Methods: The generalized model of organization and planning of monitoring regional gas suppliers were developed to achieve this goal. It allows making decisions on the organization of the monitoring system. In addition, this model makes it possible to plan under conditions of multicriteriality and uncertainty of the source data. Results: The basic criteria and constraints for solving the problem of organizing and planning the monitoring system of regional gas supply are proposed in this work. The corresponding computations were made to confirm the assumptions. The calculations were carried out in context of uncertainty of input data using a set of methods for the analysis of hierarchies, exhaustive search, as well as the methods of decision making in context of uncertainty.

  16. A trans-national monarch butterfly population model and implications for regional conservation priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberhauser, Karen; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Diffendorfer, James E.; Semmens, Darius J.; Ries, Leslie; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Semmens, Brice

    2017-01-01

    1. The monarch has undergone considerable population declines over the past decade, and the governments of Mexico, Canada, and the United States have agreed to work together to conserve the species.2. Given limited resources, understanding where to focus conservation action is key for widespread species like monarchs. To support planning for continental-scale monarch habitat restoration, we address the question of where restoration efforts are likely to have the largest impacts on monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus Linn.) population growth rates.3. We present a spatially explicit demographic model simulating the multi-generational annual cycle of the eastern monarch population, and use the model to examine management scenarios, some of which focus on particular regions of North America.4. Improving the monarch habitat in the north central or southern parts of the monarch range yields a slightly greater increase in the population growth rate than restoration in other regions. However, combining restoration efforts across multiple regions yields population growth rates above 1 with smaller simulated improvements in habitat per region than single-region strategies.5. Synthesis and applications: These findings suggest that conservation investment in projects across the full monarch range will be more effective than focusing on one or a few regions, and will require international cooperation across many land use categories.

  17. Modeling solar radiation of Mediterranean region in Turkey by using fuzzy genetic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kisi, Ozgur

    2014-01-01

    The study investigates the ability of FG (fuzzy genetic) approach in modeling solar radiation of seven cities from Mediterranean region of Anatolia, Turkey. Latitude, longitude, altitude and month of the year data from the Adana, K. Maras, Mersin, Antalya, Isparta, Burdur and Antakya cities are used as inputs to the FG model to estimate one month ahead solar radiation. FG model is compared with ANNs (artificial neural networks) and ANFIS (adaptive neruro fuzzzy inference system) models with respect to RMSE (root mean square errors), MAE (mean absolute errors) and determination coefficient (R 2 ) statistics. Comparison results indicate that the FG model performs better than the ANN and ANFIS models. It is found that the FG model can be successfully used for estimating solar radiation by using latitude, longitude, altitude and month of the year information. FG model with RMSE = 6.29 MJ/m 2 , MAE = 4.69 MJ/m 2 and R 2 = 0.905 in the test stage was found to be superior to the optimal ANN model with RMSE = 7.17 MJ/m 2 , MAE = 5.29 MJ/m 2 and R 2 = 0.876 and ANFIS model with RMSE = 6.75 MJ/m 2 , MAE = 5.10 MJ/m 2 and R 2 = 0.892 in estimating solar radiation. - Highlights: • SR (Solar radiation) of seven cities from Mediterranean region of Turkey is predicted. • FG (Fuzzy genetic) models are developed for accurately estimation of SR. • The ability of the FG models used in the study is found to be satisfactory. • FG models are compared with commonly used ANNs (artificial neural networks). • FG models are found to perform better than the ANNs models

  18. Modelling regional variation of first-time births in Denmark 1980-1994 by an age-period-cohort model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Knudsen, Lisbeth B.; Keiding, Niels

    2005-01-01

    Despite the small size of Denmark, there have traditionally been rather consistent regional differences in fertility rates. We apply the statistical age-period-cohort model to include the effect of these three time-related factors thereby concisely illuminating the regional differences of first......-time births in Denmark. From the Fertility of Women and Couples Dataset we obtain data on number of births by nulliparous women by year (1980-1994), age (15-45) and county of residence. We show that the APC-model describes the fertility rates of nulliparous women satisfactorily. To catch the regional...... variation an interaction parameter between age and county is necessary, which provides a surprisingly good description suggesting that the county-specific age-distributions of first-time fertility rates differ. Our results are in general agreement with the 'moral geography' concepts of Tonboe (2001)....

  19. Modelling regional variation of first-time births in Denmark 1980-1994 by an age-period-cohort model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisbeth B. Knudsen

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite the small size of Denmark, there have traditionally been rather consistent regional differences in fertility rates. We apply the statistical age-period-cohort model to include the effect of these three time-related factors thereby concisely illuminating the regional differences of first-time births in Denmark. From the Fertility of Women and Couples Dataset we obtain data on number of births by nulliparous women by year (1980-1994, age (15-45 and county of residence. We show that the APC-model describes the fertility rates of nulliparous women satisfactorily. To catch the regional variation an interaction parameter between age and county is necessary, which provides a surprisingly good description suggesting that the county-specific age-distributions of first-time fertility rates differ. Our results are in general agreement with the 'moral geography' concepts of Tonboe (2001.

  20. Regional Densification of a Global VTEC Model Based on B-Spline Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdogan, Eren; Schmidt, Michael; Dettmering, Denise; Goss, Andreas; Seitz, Florian; Börger, Klaus; Brandert, Sylvia; Görres, Barbara; Kersten, Wilhelm F.; Bothmer, Volker; Hinrichs, Johannes; Mrotzek, Niclas

    2017-04-01

    The project OPTIMAP is a joint initiative of the Bundeswehr GeoInformation Centre (BGIC), the German Space Situational Awareness Centre (GSSAC), the German Geodetic Research Institute of the Technical University Munich (DGFI-TUM) and the Institute for Astrophysics at the University of Göttingen (IAG). The main goal of the project is the development of an operational tool for ionospheric mapping and prediction (OPTIMAP). Two key features of the project are the combination of different satellite observation techniques (GNSS, satellite altimetry, radio occultations and DORIS) and the regional densification as a remedy against problems encountered with the inhomogeneous data distribution. Since the data from space-geoscientific mission which can be used for modeling ionospheric parameters, such as the Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) or the electron density, are distributed rather unevenly over the globe at different altitudes, appropriate modeling approaches have to be developed to handle this inhomogeneity. Our approach is based on a two-level strategy. To be more specific, in the first level we compute a global VTEC model with a moderate regional and spectral resolution which will be complemented in the second level by a regional model in a densification area. The latter is a region characterized by a dense data distribution to obtain a high spatial and spectral resolution VTEC product. Additionally, the global representation means a background model for the regional one to avoid edge effects at the boundaries of the densification area. The presented approach based on a global and a regional model part, i.e. the consideration of a regional densification is called the Two-Level VTEC Model (TLVM). The global VTEC model part is based on a series expansion in terms of polynomial B-Splines in latitude direction and trigonometric B-Splines in longitude direction. The additional regional model part is set up by a series expansion in terms of polynomial B-splines for

  1. Regional Modeling of Dust Mass Balance and Radiative Forcing over East Asia using WRF-Chem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Siyu; Zhao, Chun; Qian, Yun; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Huang, J.; Huang, Zhongwei; Bi, Jianrong; Zhang, Wu; Shi, Jinsen; Yang, Lei; Li, Deshuai; Li, Jinxin

    2014-12-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to investigate the seasonal and annual variations of mineral dust over East Asia during 2007-2011, with a focus on the dust mass balance and radiative forcing. A variety of measurements from in-stu and satellite observations have been used to evaluate simulation results. Generally, WRF-Chem reproduces not only the column variability but also the vertical profile and size distribution of mineral dust over and near the dust source regions of East Asia. We investigate the dust lifecycle and the factors that control the seasonal and spatial variations of dust mass balance and radiative forcing over the seven sub-regions of East Asia, i.e. source regions, the Tibetan Plateau, Northern China, Southern China, the ocean outflow region, and Korea-Japan regions. Results show that, over the source regions, transport and dry deposition are the two dominant sinks. Transport contributes to ~30% of the dust sink over the source regions. Dust results in a surface cooling of up to -14 and -10 W m-2, atmospheric warming of up to 20 and 15 W m-2, and TOA cooling of -5 and -8 W m-2 over the two major dust source regions of East Asia, respectively. Over the Tibetan Plateau, transport is the dominant source with a peak in summer. Over identified outflow regions, maximum dust mass loading in spring is contributed by the transport. Dry and wet depositions are the comparably dominant sinks, but wet deposition is larger than dry deposition over the Korea-Japan region, particularly in spring (70% versus 30%). The WRF-Chem simulations can generally capture the measured features of dust aerosols and its radaitve properties and dust mass balance over East Asia, which provides confidence for use in further investigation of dust impact on climate over East Asia.

  2. Regional drought assessment using a distributed hydrological model coupled with Standardized Runoff Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Shen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Drought assessment is essential for coping with frequent droughts nowadays. Owing to the large spatio-temporal variations in hydrometeorology in most regions in China, it is very necessary to use a physically-based hydrological model to produce rational spatial and temporal distributions of hydro-meteorological variables for drought assessment. In this study, the large-scale distributed hydrological model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC was coupled with a modified standardized runoff index (SRI for drought assessment in the Weihe River basin, northwest China. The result indicates that the coupled model is capable of reasonably reproducing the spatial distribution of drought occurrence. It reflected the spatial heterogeneity of regional drought and improved the physical mechanism of SRI. This model also has potential for drought forecasting, early warning and mitigation, given that accurate meteorological forcing data are available.

  3. Regional flow and solute transport modeling for site suitability. Part I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, J.; Miller, I.

    1979-12-01

    The nature of regional flow systems in large sedimentary basins will largely determine the effectiveness of regional flow as a barrier to radionuclide escape from deep geologic repositories. The purpose of the work reported herein and the proposed future work is to develop a methodology for evaluating regional flow barriers by using numerical models. The Williston Basin was chosen as an archetype case for the regional modeling study. However, due to the simplified nature of the study, the results are not meant to represent the behavior of a repository actually placed within the Williston Basin. The major components of this Phase I study are: (1) assembly and reduction of available data; (2) formulation of a simplified geohydrologic model; (3) computer simulation of fluid flow; and (4) computer simulation of solute transport. As of this report, the first two items are essentially completed. Computer simulation of fluid flow will require some revision and further study, which will be done in the second phase of this study. Computer simulation of solute transport has been considered only on a very preliminary basis. Important conclusions of this Phase I study are as follows. Assembly and reduction of data require an extensive work effort. Generally, the parameters describing fluid flow are poorly known on a regional basis and those describing solute transport are unknown

  4. Regional flow and solute transport modeling for site suitability. Part I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowe, J.; Miller, I.

    1979-12-01

    The nature of regional flow systems in large sedimentary basins will largely determine the effectiveness of regional flow as a barrier to radionuclide escape from deep geologic repositories. The purpose of the work reported herein and the proposed future work is to develop a methodology for evaluating regional flow barriers by using numerical models. The Williston Basin was chosen as an archetype case for the regional modeling study. However, due to the simplified nature of the study, the results are not meant to represent the behavior of a repository actually placed within the Williston Basin. The major components of this Phase I study are: (1) assembly and reduction of available data; (2) formulation of a simplified geohydrologic model; (3) computer simulation of fluid flow; and (4) computer simulation of solute transport. As of this report, the first two items are essentially completed. Computer simulation of fluid flow will require some revision and further study, which will be done in the second phase of this study. Computer simulation of solute transport has been considered only on a very preliminary basis. Important conclusions of this Phase I study are as follows. Assembly and reduction of data require an extensive work effort. Generally, the parameters describing fluid flow are poorly known on a regional basis and those describing solute transport are unknown.

  5. A trust region approach with multivariate Padé model for optimal circuit design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdel-Malek, Hany L.; Ebid, Shaimaa E. K.; Mohamed, Ahmed S. A.

    2017-11-01

    Since the optimization process requires a significant number of consecutive function evaluations, it is recommended to replace the function by an easily evaluated approximation model during the optimization process. The model suggested in this article is based on a multivariate Padé approximation. This model is constructed using data points of ?, where ? is the number of parameters. The model is updated over a sequence of trust regions. This model avoids the slow convergence of linear models of ? and has features of quadratic models that need interpolation data points of ?. The proposed approach is tested by applying it to several benchmark problems. Yield optimization using such a direct method is applied to some practical circuit examples. Minimax solution leads to a suitable initial point to carry out the yield optimization process. The yield is optimized by the proposed derivative-free method for active and passive filter examples.

  6. Transient response of a five-region nonequilibrium real-time pressurizer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fakory, M.R.; Seifaee, F.

    1987-01-01

    Recent accidents at nuclear power plants in the US and abroad have prompted accurate analysis and simulation of the plant systems and the training of reactor operators on plant-specific simulators that are equipped with the simulation models. Consequently, several models for real-time and off-time simulation of nuclear reactor systems, with various levels of accuracy and simulation fidelity, have been introduced. Experience with power plant simulation demonstrates that in order to realistically predict and simulate reactor responses during unanticipated transients, it is necessary to equip the simulation model with a multielement pressurizer model. The objective of this paper is to present the results of a five-region drift-flux-based pressurizer model, which has been developed for integration with real-time training simulators. A comparison between the plant data and the results of the nonequilibrium pressurizer model demonstrates that the model is well capable of close simulation of dynamic behavior of the pressurizer system

  7. Optimal region of latching activity in an adaptive Potts model for networks of neurons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdollah-nia, Mohammad-Farshad; Saeedghalati, Mohammadkarim; Abbassian, Abdolhossein

    2012-01-01

    In statistical mechanics, the Potts model is a model for interacting spins with more than two discrete states. Neural networks which exhibit features of learning and associative memory can also be modeled by a system of Potts spins. A spontaneous behavior of hopping from one discrete attractor state to another (referred to as latching) has been proposed to be associated with higher cognitive functions. Here we propose a model in which both the stochastic dynamics of Potts models and an adaptive potential function are present. A latching dynamics is observed in a limited region of the noise(temperature)–adaptation parameter space. We hence suggest noise as a fundamental factor in such alternations alongside adaptation. From a dynamical systems point of view, the noise–adaptation alternations may be the underlying mechanism for multi-stability in attractor-based models. An optimality criterion for realistic models is finally inferred

  8. Sensitivity of Sahelian Precipitation to Desert Dust under ENSO variability: a regional modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, A.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2016-12-01

    Mineral dust is estimated to comprise over half the total global aerosol burden, with a majority coming from the Sahara and Sahel region. Bounded by the Sahara Desert to the north and the Sahelian Savannah to the south, the Sahel experiences high interannual rainfall variability and a short rainy season during the boreal summer months. Observation-based data for the past three decades indicates a reduced dust emission trend, together with an increase in greening and surface roughness within the Sahel. Climate models used to study regional precipitation changes due to Saharan dust yield varied results, both in sign convention and magnitude. Inconsistency of model estimates drives future climate projections for the region that are highly varied and uncertain. We use the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to quantify the interaction and feedback between desert dust aerosol and Sahelian precipitation. Using nested domains at fine spatial resolution we resolve changes to mesoscale atmospheric circulation patterns due to dust, for representative phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NU-WRF regional earth system model offers both advanced land surface data and resolvable detail of the mechanisms of the impact of Saharan dust. Results are compared to our previous work assessed over the Western Sahel using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2Mc global climate model, and to other previous regional climate model studies. This prompts further research to help explain the dust-precipitation relationship and recent North African dust emission trends. This presentation will offer a quantitative analysis of differences in radiation budget, energy and moisture fluxes, and atmospheric dynamics due to desert dust aerosol over the Sahel.

  9. Spatial pattern of diarrhea based on regional economic and environment by spatial autoregressive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekti, Rokhana Dwi; Nurhadiyanti, Gita; Irwansyah, Edy

    2014-10-01

    The diarrhea case pattern information, especially for toddler, is very important. It is used to show the distribution of diarrhea in every region, relationship among that locations, and regional economic characteristic or environmental behavior. So, this research uses spatial pattern to perform them. This method includes: Moran's I, Spatial Autoregressive Models (SAR), and Local Indicator of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA). It uses sample from 23 sub districts of Bekasi Regency, West Java, Indonesia. Diarrhea case, regional economic, and environmental behavior of households have a spatial relationship among sub district. SAR shows that the percentage of Regional Gross Domestic Product is significantly effect on diarrhea at α = 10%. Therefore illiteracy and health center facilities are significant at α = 5%. With LISA test, sub districts in southern Bekasi have high dependencies with Cikarang Selatan, Serang Baru, and Setu. This research also builds development application that is based on java and R to support data analysis.

  10. Mathematical models and methods of assisting state subsidy distribution at the regional level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondarenko, Yu V.; Azarnova, T. V.; Kashirina, I. L.; Goroshko, I. V.

    2018-03-01

    One of the most common forms of state support in the world is subsidization. By providing direct financial support to businesses, local authorities get an opportunity to set certain performance targets. Successful achievement of such targets depends not only on the amount of the budgetary allocations, but also on the distribution mechanisms adopted by the regional authorities. Analysis of the existing mechanisms of subsidies distribution in Russian regions shows that in most cases the choice of subsidy calculation formula and its parameters depends on the experts’ subjective opinion. The authors offer a new approach to assisting subsidy distribution at the regional level, which is based on mathematical models and methods, allowing to evaluate the influence of subsidy distribution on the region’s social and economic development. The results of calculations were discussed with the regional administration representatives who confirmed their significance for decision-making in the sphere of state control.

  11. Spectral nudging in regional climate modelling: How strongly should we nudge?

    OpenAIRE

    Omrani , Hiba; Drobinski , Philippe; Dubos , Thomas

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Spectral nudging is a technique consisting in driving regional climate models (RCMs) on selected spatial scales corresponding to those produced by the driving global circulation model (GCM). This technique prevents large and unrealistic departures between the GCM driving fields and the RCM fields at the GCM spatial scales. Theoretically, the relaxation of the RCM towards the GCM should be infinitely strong provided thre are perfect large-scale fields. In practice, the ...

  12. Regional Sediment Management (RSM) Modeling Tools: Integration of Advanced Sediment Transport Tools into HEC-RAS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    sediment transport within the USACE HEC River Analysis System ( HEC - RAS ) software package and to determine its applicability to Regional Sediment...Management (RSM) challenges. HEC - RAS SEDIMENT MODELING BACKGROUND: HEC - RAS performs (1) one- dimensional (1D) steady and unsteady hydraulic river ...Albuquerque (SPA)), and recently, the USACE RSM Program. HEC - RAS is one of several hydraulic modeling codes available for river analysis in the

  13. Assessing Regional Sustainability Using a Model of Coordinated Development Index: A Case Study of Mainland China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Yang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available From a holistic view, this paper addresses a perspective of coordinated development of economy, society, and environment for regional sustainability assessment. Firstly, a comprehensive indicator system for co-evaluating the level of economic, social, and environmental subsystems is presented based on a holistic understanding of regional sustainability. Then, a coordinated development index model focusing on the level of coordination among the subsystems as well as their comprehensive development level is established. Furthermore, an empirical study of all the provinces and municipalities is conducted by collecting the panel data from 2004 to 2010. The result shows that: (1 the coordinated developments of the most developed and the most underdeveloped regions stay stable while the regions with medium development level possess more fluctuant trends during the study years; (2 regional disparities are indicated according to the grading of CDI (the coordinated development index, which are further analyzed to be related to the local economic development patterns; (3 the conditions and causes of economic, social, and environmental development in real situations under different grades of CDI are discussed through detailed case studies of typical regions, which indicate specific suggestions of sustainable development for regions in the same pattern.

  14. Application of regional climate models to the Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimri, A P; Yasunari, T; Wiltshire, A; Kumar, P; Mathison, C; Ridley, J; Jacob, D

    2013-12-01

    The Himalayan region is characterized by pronounced topographic heterogeneity and land use variability from west to east, with a large variation in regional climate patterns. Over the western part of the region, almost one-third of the annual precipitation is received in winter during cyclonic storms embedded in westerlies, known locally as the western disturbance. In the present paper, the regional winter climate over the western Himalayas is analyzed from simulations produced by two regional climate models (RCMs) forced with large-scale fields from ERA-Interim. The analysis was conducted by the composition of contrasting (wet and dry) winter precipitation years. The findings showed that RCMs could simulate the regional climate of the western Himalayas and represent the atmospheric circulation during extreme precipitation years in accordance with observations. The results suggest the important role of topography in moisture fluxes, transport and vertical flows. Dynamical downscaling with RCMs represented regional climates at the mountain or even event scale. However, uncertainties of precipitation scale and liquid-solid precipitation ratios within RCMs are still large for the purposes of hydrological and glaciological studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Evaluation model for safety capacity of chemical industrial park based on acceptable regional risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guohua Chen; Shukun Wang; Xiaoqun Tan

    2015-01-01

    The paper defines the Safety Capacity of Chemical Industrial Park (SCCIP) from the perspective of acceptable regional risk. For the purpose of exploring the evaluation model for the SCCIP, a method based on quantitative risk assessment was adopted for evaluating transport risk and to confirm reasonable safety transport capacity of chemical industrial park, and then by combining with the safety storage capacity, a SCCIP evaluation model was put forward. The SCCIP was decided by the smaller one between the largest safety storage capacity and the maximum safety transport capacity, or else, the regional risk of the park will exceed the acceptable level. The developed method was applied to a chemical industrial park in Guangdong province to obtain the maximum safety transport capacity and the SCCIP. The results can be realized in the regional risk control of the park effectively.

  16. Modelling of the electron density height profiles in the mid-latitude ionospheric D-region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Y. Mukhtarov

    1996-06-01

    Full Text Available A new mid-latitude D-region (50-105 km model of the electron density is presented obtained on the basis of a full wave theory and by a trial-and-error inversion method. Daytime (at different solar zenith angles absorption measurements by A3-technique made in Bulgaria yielded data with the aid of which the seasonal and diurnal courses of the Ne(h-profiles were derived. Special attention is drawn to the event diurnal asymmetry, or uneven formation of the ionosphere as a function of insulation. The latter is probably connected with the influence of the diurnal fluctuations in the local temperature on the chemistry involved in the electron loss rate, as well as the diurnal variations of the main ionizing agent (NO in the D-region. That is why the Ne(h-profiles in the midlatitude D-region are modelled separately for morning and afternoon hours.

  17. Future temperature changes over the critical Belt and Road region based on CMIP5 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian-Yun Dong

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Based on data of 22 models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, the performance of climate simulation is assessed and future changes under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are projected over critical Belt and Road region. Compared with observations, the CMIP5 models simulate the linear trend and spatial distribution of the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT better in the north (NBR and south (SBR of the Belt and Road region. The trend of the 22-model ensemble mean (CMIP5 MME is 0.70/0.50 °C per 100 years from 1901 to 2005, and the observed trend is 1.11/0.77 °C per 100 years in the NBR/SBR region. After 1971, the relative error between CMIP5 MME and observations is 22%/15% in the NBR/SBR region. Seven/nine models are selected in the NBR/SBR to project future SAT changes under three RCP scenarios. For 2081–2100, warming in the NBR/SBR is projected to be (1.16 ± 0.29/(0.72 ± 0.32 °C, (2.41 ± 0.54/(1.55 ± 0.44 °C, and (5.23 ± 1.02/(3.33 ± 0.65 °C for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Under the RCP scenarios, the NBR region shows greater warming than the SBR region. The most significant warming is expected in Kazakhstan and the northern part of the SBR. The associated uncertainty generally increases with time under the three RCP scenarios. Furthermore, increases in warming over the Belt and Road region are more remarkable under higher-emission scenarios than lower-emission ones. Keywords: CMIP5 models, The Belt and Road region, Temperature projection, RCPs

  18. Regional Seismic Amplitude Modeling and Tomography for Earthquake-Explosion Discrimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, W. R.; Pasyanos, M. E.; Matzel, E.; Gok, R.; Sweeney, J.; Ford, S. R.; Rodgers, A. J.

    2008-12-01

    Empirically explosions have been discriminated from natural earthquakes using regional amplitude ratio techniques such as P/S in a variety of frequency bands. We demonstrate that such ratios discriminate nuclear tests from earthquakes using closely located pairs of earthquakes and explosions recorded on common, publicly available stations at test sites around the world (e.g. Nevada, Novaya Zemlya, Semipalatinsk, Lop Nor, India, Pakistan, and North Korea). We are examining if there is any relationship between the observed P/S and the point source variability revealed by longer period full waveform modeling. For example, regional waveform modeling shows strong tectonic release from the May 1998 India test, in contrast with very little tectonic release in the October 2006 North Korea test, but the P/S discrimination behavior appears similar in both events using the limited regional data available. While regional amplitude ratios such as P/S can separate events in close proximity, it is also empirically well known that path effects can greatly distort observed amplitudes and make earthquakes appear very explosion-like. Previously we have shown that the MDAC (Magnitude Distance Amplitude Correction, Walter and Taylor, 2001) technique can account for simple 1-D attenuation and geometrical spreading corrections, as well as magnitude and site effects. However in some regions 1-D path corrections are a poor approximation and we need to develop 2-D path corrections. Here we demonstrate a new 2-D attenuation tomography technique using the MDAC earthquake source model applied to a set of events and stations in both the Middle East and the Yellow Sea Korean Peninsula regions. We believe this new 2-D MDAC tomography has the potential to greatly improve earthquake-explosion discrimination, particularly in tectonically complex regions such as the Middle East.

  19. Models of infrared emission from dusty and diffuse H II regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aannestad, P.A.

    1978-01-01

    Models for the infrared emission from amorphous core-mantle dust within diffuse (n/sub e/ 3 cm -3 ) H II regions with neutral shells that are optically thin in the infrared have been calculated. The icy mantles sublimate only within a fractional radius of 0.2--0.5, affecting the overall gas-to-dust ratio only slightly. A region with variable grain composition may have a much smaller infrared luminosity than a similar region with uniform grain properties. Calculations of the total infrared luminosity, the relative contribution by Lα photons, the infrared spectral distribution, and the size of the dust-depleted regions are presented as functions of the ultraviolet optical depths in the ionized and neutral regions and for stellar temperatures of 35,000 and 48,000 K. Comparison with observations indicate that at least 20% of the Lyman-continuum photons are absorbed by the dust, and that the dust optical depth in the Lyman continuum is likely to be of the order of unity. For core-mantle grains most of the infrared energy is emitted between 30 and 70 μm, relatively independent of whether the dust is within or outside the H II region. Amorphous silicate particles tend to emit more energy below 30 μm, but also emit efficiently at far-infrared wavelengths. In order to illustrate the model calculations, we present infrared spectra for the Orion A region and compare them with observed fluxed, accounting for beam-width effects. A reasonable agreement is obtained with most of the near- to middle-infrared observations if the total ultraviolet optical depth is about unity and about equally divided between the ionized region and an outside neutral shell. Intensity profiles for Orion A are presented for wavelengths in the ragne 20--1000 μm, and show a strong increase in width beyond 20 μm

  20. Intercomparison of lepton-nucleus scattering models in the quasielastic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobczyk, Joanna E.

    2017-10-01

    I present a discussion of the models of nuclear effects used to describe the inclusive electron-nucleus scattering in the quasielastic (QE) peak region, aiming to compare them and to draw conclusions about their reliability when applied in neutrino-nucleus interactions. A basic motivation is to reduce the systematic errors in the neutrino oscillation experiments. I concentrate on the neutrino energy profile of the T2K experiment, which provides me with a region of the greatest importance in terms of the highest contribution to the charge-current quasielastic (CCQE) cross section. Only electron-nucleus data that overlap with this region is chosen. In order to clarify the analysis, I split the data sets into three groups and draw conclusions separately from each one of them. Six models are selected for this comparison: Benhar's spectral function with and without the final-state interactions (Benhar's SF + FSI); the Valencia spectral function (Valencia SF), for higher energy transfers only with the hole spectral function; the Giessen Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (GiBUU) model; and the local and global Fermi gas models. The latter two are included as a benchmark to quantify the roles of various nuclear effects. All six models are often used in neutrino scattering studies. A short theoretical description of each model is given. Although in the selected data sets the QE mechanism dominates, I also discuss the possible impact of the 2p2h and the Δ contributions.

  1. The design and application of a radiological consequence model for tropical and subtropical regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domel, R.U.; Harris, F.F.; Crawford, J.

    1998-01-01

    The post Chernobyl era has seen the development of a plethora of radiological consequence models. The information used in these models pertains mostly to temperate and cold climate data, with these data mostly being hard-wired into the body of the model. At the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), a model is being developed with a user-friendly interface which will assess the radiological consequences, after an incident, in tropical and sub-tropical climates. The model combines specific regional data (South East Asia) with transfer parameters (soil to plant, plant to animal) obtained for tropical and sub-tropical regions. Flexibility has been incorporated into the the design of the model to allow application in other regions. Where the relevant data are not available, default temperate data are used whilst specific research will be initiated to determine the information required. A Geographic Information System (GIS) is used for the display of input and output data allowing quick access to not only the results but also to the underlying assumptions

  2. Qualitative and quantitative examination of the performance of regional air quality models representing different modeling approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhumralkar, C.M.; Ludwig, F.L.; Shannon, J.D.; McNaughton, D.

    1985-04-01

    The calculations of three different air quality models were compared with the best available observations. The comparisons were made without calibrating the models to improve agreement with the observations. Model performance was poor for short averaging times (less than 24 hours). Some of the poor performance can be traced to errors in the input meteorological fields, but error exist on all levels. It should be noted that these models were not originally designed for treating short-term episodes. For short-term episodes, much of the variance in the data can arise from small spatial scale features that tend to be averaged out over longer periods. These small spatial scale features cannot be resolved with the coarse grids that are used for the meteorological and emissions inputs. Thus, it is not surprising that the models performed for the longer averaging times. The models compared were RTM-II, ENAMAP-2 and ACID. (17 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs

  3. Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in Central Europe from ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gaál, Ľ.; Beranová, R.; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14 ISSN 1687-9309 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 ; RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014

  4. Improving A Priori Demand Estimates Transport Models using Mobile Phone Data : A Rotterdam-Region Case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, Luc Johannes Josephus; Friso, K.; Rijsdijk, J.; de Graaf, S.W.; Keij, J.

    2016-01-01

    Mobile phone data are a rich source to infer all kinds of mobility related information. In this research we present an approach where mobile phone data is used and analysed for enriching the transport model of the region of Rotterdam. In our research we used Call Detail Records (CDR) from one of the

  5. Using the SIMGRO regional hydrological model to evaluate salinity control measures in an irrigation area

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kupper, E.; Querner, E.P.; Morábito, J.A.; Menenti, M.

    2002-01-01

    In irrigated areas with drainage and an important interaction with the groundwater system, it is often difficult to predict effects of measures to control salinity. Therefore, in order to evaluate measures to control salinity the SIMGRO integrated regional hydrological model was extended with a

  6. Modeling of the Gross Regional Product on the Basis of Production Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadovin, Nikolay S.; Kokotkina, Tatiana N.; Barkalova, Tatiana G.; Tsaregorodsev, Evgeny I.

    2016-01-01

    The article is devoted to elaboration and construction of a static model of macroeconomics in which economics is considered as an unstructured holistic unit, the input of which receives the resources, and the output is the result of the functioning of economics in the form of gross domestic product or gross regional product. Resources are…

  7. Representation of aerosol particles and associated transport pathways in regional climate modelling in Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Garland, Rebecca M

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol particles can have large impacts on air quality and on the climate system. Regional climate models for Africa have not been well-tested and validated for their representation and simulation of aerosol particles. This study aimed to validate...

  8. Turbulence modeling and surface heat transfer in a stagnation flow region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, C. R.; Yeh, F. C.

    1987-01-01

    Analysis for the turbulent flow field and the effect of freestream turbulence on the surface heat transfer rate of a stagnation flow is presented. The emphasis is on modeling and its augmentation of surface heat transfer rate. The flow field considered is the region near the forward stagnation point of a circular cylinder in a uniform turbulent mean flow.

  9. Improving A Priori Demand Estimates Transport Models using Mobile Phone Data : A Rotterdam-Region Case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, Luc Johannes Josephus; Friso, K.; Rijsdijk, J.; de Graaf, S.W.; Keij, J.

    2018-01-01

    Mobile phone data are a rich source to infer all kinds of mobility- related information. In this research, we present an approach where mobile phone data are used and analyzed for enriching the transport model of the region of Rotterdam. In this research Call Detail Records (CDR) are used from a

  10. Regional Spectral Model Workshop in memory of John Roads and Masao Kanamitsu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Shyh-Chin Chen; Songyou Hong; Hideki Kanamaru; Thomas Reichler; Takeshi Enomoto; Dian Putrasahan; Bruce T. Anderson; Sasha Gershunov; Haiqin Li; Kei Yoshimura; Nikolaus Buenning; Diane Boomer

    2014-01-01

    The committee for the 12th International Regional Spectral Model (RSM) Workshop drew its members from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the U.S. Forest Service, Yonsei University, the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, the University of Tokyo, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Hokkaido University,...

  11. Phase-locking regions in a forced model of slow insulin and glucose oscillations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sturis, Jeppe; Knudsen, Carsten; O'Meara, Niall M.

    1995-01-01

    We present a detailed numerical investigation of the phase-locking regions in a forced model of slow oscillations in human insulin secretion and blood glucose concentration. The bifurcation structures of period 2pi and 4pi tongues are mapped out and found to be qualitatively identical to those...

  12. Phase-locking regions in a forced model of slow insulin and glucose oscillations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sturis, J.; Knudsen, C.; O'Meara, N.M.

    1996-01-01

    We present a detailed numerical investigation of the phase-locking regions in a forced model of slow oscillations in human insulin secretion and blood glucose concentration. The bifurcation structures of period 2pi and 4pi tongues are mapped out and found to be qualitatively identical to those...

  13. Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rae, J.G.L.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Edwards, T.L.; Fettweis, X.; Gregory, J.M.; Hewitt, H.T.; Lowe, J.A.; Lucas-Picher, P.; Mottram, R.H.; Payne, A.J.; Ridley, J.K.; Shannon, S.R.; van de Berg, W.J.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; van den Broeke, M.R.

    2012-01-01

    Four high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) have been set up for the area of Greenland, with the aim of providing future projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), and its contribution to sea level rise, with greater accuracy than is possible from coarser-resolution

  14. Regional calibration models for predicting loblolly pine tracheid properties using near-infrared spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamad Nabavi; Joseph Dahlen; Laurence Schimleck; Thomas L. Eberhardt; Cristian Montes

    2018-01-01

    This study developed regional calibration models for the prediction of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) tracheid properties using near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. A total of 1842 pith-to-bark radial strips, aged 19–31 years, were acquired from 268 trees from 109 stands across the southeastern USA. Diffuse reflectance NIR spectra were collected at 10-mm...

  15. Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

  16. Conceptual Foundations of Transition to the Nonlinear Models of Higher Education in the Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garold Efimovich Zborovsky

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The subject matter of the analysis is the non-linear characteristics of the new model of higher education in relation to its resources and risk environment. The purpose of this article is to prove the need and the possibility of transition to the nonlinear model of higher education in the region on the basis of theoretical positions and the results of the study of non-linear socio-economic processes. In this connection, the socio-economic factors of such transition are characterized; the objective necessity of its implementation in the context of the economic and social uncertainty of a particular region, which is Ural Federal District, is shown. A new type of relationship between universities and their social partners is considered. The need for the change of interactions between educational communities; reliance on the use of a new wide range of economic, social and spiritual resources; the constant search for new mechanisms, educational programs, relations with the external environment, management decisions are argued. Ural Federal District is shown as one of the most advanced regions of the Russian Federation not only in the sphere of the economy, social and cultural life, but also in the sphere of higher education. This circumstance is related to the constant, intensive search for innovative approaches to the modernization of higher education in the region, including the formation of its non-linear model. The presented situation forms the basis of the hypothesis that the non-linear model of higher education can ensure its competitiveness in the global educational space, to enhance its role in the society and specific regions of the country and to turn it into a locomotive of the socio-economic and socio-cultural development. The study is based on an interdisciplinary methodology, including the potential of theoretical sociology, sociology of education, economic sociology, management theory, regional economy. The findings of the research

  17. Colour Model for Outdoor Machine Vision for Tropical Regions and its Comparison with the CIE Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahragard, Nasrolah; Ramli, Abdul Rahman B [Institute of Advanced Technology, Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia); Marhaban, Mohammad Hamiruce [Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia); Mansor, Shattri B, E-mail: sahragard@yahoo.com [Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2011-02-15

    Accurate modeling of daylight and surface reflectance are very useful for most outdoor machine vision applications specifically those which are based on color recognition. Existing daylight CIE model has drawbacks that limit its ability to predict the color of incident light. These limitations include lack of considering ambient light, effects of light reflected off the ground, and context specific information. Previously developed color model is only tested for a few geographical places in North America and its accountability is under question for other places in the world. Besides, existing surface reflectance models are not easily applied to outdoor images. A reflectance model with combined diffuse and specular reflection in normalized HSV color space could be used to predict color. In this paper, a new daylight color model showing the color of daylight for a broad range of sky conditions is developed which will suit weather conditions of tropical places such as Malaysia. A comparison of this daylight color model and daylight CIE model will be discussed. The colors of matte and specular surfaces have been estimated by use of the developed color model and surface reflection function in this paper. The results are shown to be highly reliable.

  18. Colour Model for Outdoor Machine Vision for Tropical Regions and its Comparison with the CIE Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahragard, Nasrolah; Ramli, Abdul Rahman B.; Hamiruce Marhaban, Mohammad; Mansor, Shattri B.

    2011-02-01

    Accurate modeling of daylight and surface reflectance are very useful for most outdoor machine vision applications specifically those which are based on color recognition. Existing daylight CIE model has drawbacks that limit its ability to predict the color of incident light. These limitations include lack of considering ambient light, effects of light reflected off the ground, and context specific information. Previously developed color model is only tested for a few geographical places in North America and its accountability is under question for other places in the world. Besides, existing surface reflectance models are not easily applied to outdoor images. A reflectance model with combined diffuse and specular reflection in normalized HSV color space could be used to predict color. In this paper, a new daylight color model showing the color of daylight for a broad range of sky conditions is developed which will suit weather conditions of tropical places such as Malaysia. A comparison of this daylight color model and daylight CIE model will be discussed. The colors of matte and specular surfaces have been estimated by use of the developed color model and surface reflection function in this paper. The results are shown to be highly reliable.

  19. Colour Model for Outdoor Machine Vision for Tropical Regions and its Comparison with the CIE Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahragard, Nasrolah; Ramli, Abdul Rahman B; Marhaban, Mohammad Hamiruce; Mansor, Shattri B

    2011-01-01

    Accurate modeling of daylight and surface reflectance are very useful for most outdoor machine vision applications specifically those which are based on color recognition. Existing daylight CIE model has drawbacks that limit its ability to predict the color of incident light. These limitations include lack of considering ambient light, effects of light reflected off the ground, and context specific information. Previously developed color model is only tested for a few geographical places in North America and its accountability is under question for other places in the world. Besides, existing surface reflectance models are not easily applied to outdoor images. A reflectance model with combined diffuse and specular reflection in normalized HSV color space could be used to predict color. In this paper, a new daylight color model showing the color of daylight for a broad range of sky conditions is developed which will suit weather conditions of tropical places such as Malaysia. A comparison of this daylight color model and daylight CIE model will be discussed. The colors of matte and specular surfaces have been estimated by use of the developed color model and surface reflection function in this paper. The results are shown to be highly reliable.

  20. From Cell to Tissue Properties-Modeling Skin Electroporation With Pore and Local Transport Region Formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dermol-Cerne, Janja; Miklavcic, Damijan

    2018-02-01

    Current models of tissue electroporation either describe tissue with its bulk properties or include cell level properties, but model only a few cells of simple shapes in low-volume fractions or are in two dimensions. We constructed a three-dimensional model of realistically shaped cells in realistic volume fractions. By using a 'unit cell' model, the equivalent dielectric properties of whole tissue could be calculated. We calculated the dielectric properties of electroporated skin. We modeled electroporation of single cells by pore formation on keratinocytes and on the papillary dermis which gave dielectric properties of the electroporated epidermis and papillary dermis. During skin electroporation, local transport regions are formed in the stratum corneum. We modeled local transport regions and increase in their radii or density which affected the dielectric properties of the stratum corneum. The final model of skin electroporation accurately describes measured electric current and voltage drop on the skin during electroporation with long low-voltage pulses. The model also accurately describes voltage drop on the skin during electroporation with short high-voltage pulses. However, our results indicate that during application of short high-voltage pulses additional processes may occur which increase the electric current. Our model connects the processes occurring at the level of cell membranes (pore formation), at the level of a skin layer (formation of local transport region in the stratum corneum) with the tissue (skin layers) and even level of organs (skin). Using a similar approach, electroporation of any tissue can be modeled, if the morphology of the tissue is known.

  1. Modeling wind energy potential in a data-poor region: A geographic information systems model for Iraq

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khayyat, Abdulkareem Hawta Abdullah Kak Ahmed

    Scope and Method of Study: Most developing countries, including Iraq, have very poor wind data. Existing wind speed measurements of poor quality may therefore be a poor guide to where to look for the best wind resources. The main focus of this study is to examine how effectively a GIS spatial model estimates wind power potential in regions where high-quality wind data are very scarce, such as Iraq. The research used a mixture of monthly and hourly wind data from 39 meteorological stations. The study applied spatial analysis statistics and GIS techniques in modeling wind power potential. The model weighted important human, environmental and geographic factors that impact wind turbine siting, such as roughness length, land use⪉nd cover type, airport locations, road access, transmission lines, slope and aspect. Findings and Conclusions: The GIS model provided estimations for wind speed and wind power density and identified suitable areas for wind power projects. Using a high resolution (30*30m) digital elevation model DEM improved the GIS wind suitability model. The model identified areas suitable for wind farm development on different scales. The model showed that there are many locations available for large-scale wind turbines in the southern part of Iraq. Additionally, there are many places in central and northern parts (Kurdistan Region) for smaller scale wind turbine placement.

  2. Using gridded multimedia model to simulate spatial fate of Benzo[α]pyrene on regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shijie; Lu, Yonglong; Wang, Tieyu; Xie, Shuangwei; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

    2014-02-01

    Predicting the environmental multimedia fate is an essential step in the process of assessing the human exposure and health impacts of chemicals released into the environment. Multimedia fate models have been widely applied to calculate the fate and distribution of chemicals in the environment, which can serve as input to a human exposure model. In this study, a grid based multimedia fugacity model at regional scale was developed together with a case study modeling the fate and transfer of Benzo[α]pyrene (BaP) in Bohai coastal region, China. Based on the estimated emission and in-site survey in 2008, the BaP concentrations in air, vegetation, soil, fresh water, fresh water sediment and coastal water as well as the transfer fluxes were derived under the steady-state assumption. The model results were validated through comparison between the measured and modeled concentrations of BaP. The model results indicated that the predicted concentrations of BaP in air, fresh water, soil and sediment generally agreed with field observations. Model predictions suggest that soil was the dominant sink of BaP in terrestrial systems. Flow from air to soil, vegetation and costal water were three major pathways of BaP inter-media transport processes. Most of the BaP entering the sea was transferred by air flow, which was also the crucial driving force in the spatial distribution processes of BaP. The Yellow River, Liaohe River and Daliao River played an important role in the spatial transformation processes of BaP. Compared with advection outflow, degradation was more important in removal processes of BaP. Sensitivities of the model estimates to input parameters were tested. The result showed that emission rates, compartment dimensions, transport velocity and degradation rates of BaP were the most influential parameters for the model output. Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to determine parameter uncertainty, from which the coefficients of variation for the estimated Ba

  3. The influence of spectral nudging on typhoon formation in regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feser, Frauke; Barcikowska, Monika

    2012-03-01

    Regional climate models can successfully simulate tropical cyclones and typhoons. This has been shown and was evaluated for hindcast studies of the past few decades. But often global and regional weather phenomena are not simulated at the observed location, or occur too often or seldom even though the regional model is driven by global reanalysis data which constitute a near-realistic state of the global atmosphere. Therefore, several techniques have been developed in order to make the regional model follow the global state more closely. One is spectral nudging, which is applied for horizontal wind components with increasing strength for higher model levels in this study. The aim of this study is to show the influence that this method has on the formation of tropical cyclones (TC) in regional climate models. Two ensemble simulations (each with five simulations) were computed for Southeast Asia and the Northwestern Pacific for the typhoon season 2004, one with spectral nudging and one without. First of all, spectral nudging reduced the overall TC number by about a factor of 2. But the number of tracks which are similar to observed best track data (BTD) was greatly increased. Also, spatial track density patterns were found to be more similar when using spectral nudging. The tracks merge after a short time for the spectral nudging simulations and then follow the BTD closely; for the no nudge cases the similarity is greatly reduced. A comparison of seasonal precipitation, geopotential height, and temperature fields at several height levels with observations and reanalysis data showed overall a smaller ensemble spread, higher pattern correlations and reduced root mean square errors and biases for the spectral nudged simulations. Vertical temperature profiles for selected TCs indicate that spectral nudging is not inhibiting TC development at higher levels. Both the Madden-Julian Oscillation and monsoonal precipitation are reproduced realistically by the regional model

  4. The influence of spectral nudging on typhoon formation in regional climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feser, Frauke; Barcikowska, Monika

    2012-01-01

    Regional climate models can successfully simulate tropical cyclones and typhoons. This has been shown and was evaluated for hindcast studies of the past few decades. But often global and regional weather phenomena are not simulated at the observed location, or occur too often or seldom even though the regional model is driven by global reanalysis data which constitute a near-realistic state of the global atmosphere. Therefore, several techniques have been developed in order to make the regional model follow the global state more closely. One is spectral nudging, which is applied for horizontal wind components with increasing strength for higher model levels in this study. The aim of this study is to show the influence that this method has on the formation of tropical cyclones (TC) in regional climate models. Two ensemble simulations (each with five simulations) were computed for Southeast Asia and the Northwestern Pacific for the typhoon season 2004, one with spectral nudging and one without. First of all, spectral nudging reduced the overall TC number by about a factor of 2. But the number of tracks which are similar to observed best track data (BTD) was greatly increased. Also, spatial track density patterns were found to be more similar when using spectral nudging. The tracks merge after a short time for the spectral nudging simulations and then follow the BTD closely; for the no nudge cases the similarity is greatly reduced. A comparison of seasonal precipitation, geopotential height, and temperature fields at several height levels with observations and reanalysis data showed overall a smaller ensemble spread, higher pattern correlations and reduced root mean square errors and biases for the spectral nudged simulations. Vertical temperature profiles for selected TCs indicate that spectral nudging is not inhibiting TC development at higher levels. Both the Madden–Julian Oscillation and monsoonal precipitation are reproduced realistically by the regional model

  5. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Locatelli

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr−1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr−1 in North America to 7 Tg yr−1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively. At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly

  6. COORDINATION IN MULTILEVEL NETWORK-CENTRIC CONTROL SYSTEMS OF REGIONAL SECURITY: APPROACH AND FORMAL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Masloboev

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with development of methods and tools for mathematical and computer modeling of the multilevel network-centric control systems of regional security. This research is carried out under development strategy implementation of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and national safeguarding for the period before 2020 in the Murmansk region territory. Creation of unified interdepartmental multilevel computer-aided system is proposed intended for decision-making information support and socio-economic security monitoring of the Arctic regions of Russia. The distinctive features of the investigated system class are openness, self-organization, decentralization of management functions and decision-making, weak hierarchy in the decision-making circuit and goal generation capability inside itself. Research techniques include functional-target approach, mathematical apparatus of multilevel hierarchical system theory and principles of network-centric control of distributed systems with pro-active components and variable structure. The work considers network-centric management local decisions coordination problem-solving within the multilevel distributed systems intended for information support of regional security. The coordination problem-solving approach and problem formalization in the multilevel network-centric control systems of regional security have been proposed based on developed multilevel recurrent hierarchical model of regional socio-economic system complex security. The model provides coordination of regional security indexes, optimized by the different elements of multilevel control systems, subject to decentralized decision-making. The model specificity consists in application of functional-target technology and mathematical apparatus of multilevel hierarchical system theory for coordination procedures implementation of the network-centric management local decisions. The work-out and research results can find further

  7. A radar-based hydrological model for flash flood prediction in the dry regions of Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronen, Alon; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

    2014-05-01

    Flash floods are floods which follow shortly after rainfall events, and are among the most destructive natural disasters that strike people and infrastructures in humid and arid regions alike. Using a hydrological model for the prediction of flash floods in gauged and ungauged basins can help mitigate the risk and damage they cause. The sparsity of rain gauges in arid regions requires the use of radar measurements in order to get reliable quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE). While many hydrological models use radar data, only a handful do so in dry climate. This research presents a robust radar-based hydro-meteorological model built specifically for dry climate. Using this model we examine the governing factors of flash floods in the arid and semi-arid regions of Israel in particular and in dry regions in general. The hydrological model built is a semi-distributed, physically-based model, which represents the main hydrological processes in the area, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. Three infiltration functions were examined - Initial & Constant, SCS-CN and Green&Ampt. The parameters for each function were found by calibration based on 53 flood events in three catchments, and validation was performed using 55 flood events in six catchments. QPE were obtained from a C-band weather radar and adjusted using a weighted multiple regression method based on a rain gauge network. Antecedent moisture conditions were calculated using a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM). We found that the SCS-CN infiltration function performed better than the other two, with reasonable agreement between calculated and measured peak discharge. Effects of storm characteristics were studied using synthetic storms from a high resolution weather generator (HiReS-WG), and showed a strong correlation between storm speed, storm direction and rain depth over desert soils to flood volume and peak discharge.

  8. Validation of the Regional Climate Model ALARO with different dynamical downscaling approaches and different horizontal resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berckmans, Julie; Hamdi, Rafiq; De Troch, Rozemien; Giot, Olivier

    2015-04-01

    At the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI), climate simulations are performed with the regional climate model (RCM) ALARO, a version of the ALADIN model with improved physical parameterizations. In order to obtain high-resolution information of the regional climate, lateral bounary conditions (LBC) are prescribed from the global climate model (GCM) ARPEGE. Dynamical downscaling is commonly done in a continuous long-term simulation, with the initialisation of the model at t