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Sample records for regional scale due

  1. Regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO2 injection - Part 1: The participatory modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheer, Dirk; Konrad, Wilfried; Class, Holger; Kissinger, Alexander; Knopf, Stefan; Noack, Vera

    2017-06-01

    Saltwater intrusion into potential drinking water aquifers due to the injection of CO2 into deep saline aquifers is one of the potential hazards associated with the geological storage of CO2. Thus, in a site selection process, models for predicting the fate of the displaced brine are required, for example, for a risk assessment or the optimization of pressure management concepts. From the very beginning, this research on brine migration aimed at involving expert and stakeholder knowledge and assessment in simulating the impacts of injecting CO2 into deep saline aquifers by means of a participatory modeling process. The involvement exercise made use of two approaches. First, guideline-based interviews were carried out, aiming at eliciting expert and stakeholder knowledge and assessments of geological structures and mechanisms affecting CO2-induced brine migration. Second, a stakeholder workshop including the World Café format yielded evaluations and judgments of the numerical modeling approach, scenario selection, and preliminary simulation results. The participatory modeling approach gained several results covering brine migration in general, the geological model sketch, scenario development, and the review of the preliminary simulation results. These results were included in revised versions of both the geological model and the numerical model, helping to improve the analysis of regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO2 injection.

  2. Simulation of hydrodynamic effects of salt rejection due to permafrost. Hydrogeological numerical model of density-driven mixing, at a regional scale, due to a high salinity pulse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidstrand, Patrik; Svensson, Urban; Follin, Sven

    2006-10-01

    The main objective of this study is to support the safety assessment of the investigated candidate sites concerning hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical issues related to permafrost. However, a more specific objective of the study is to improve the assessment of processes in relation to permafrost scenarios. The model is based on a mathematical model that includes Darcy velocities, mass conservation, matrix diffusion, and salinity distribution. Gravitational effects are thus fully accounted for. A regional groundwater flow model (POM v1.1, Simpevarp) was used as basis for the simulations. The main results of the model include salinity distributions in time. The general conclusion is that density-driven mixing processes are contained within more permeable deformation zones and that these processes are fast as compared with preliminary permafrost growth rates. The results of the simulation suggest that a repository volume in the rock mass in-between the deterministic deformation zones, approximately 150 m below the permafrost will not experience a high salinity situation due to the salt rejection process

  3. Regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO2 injection - Part 2: A simulated case study in the North German Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kissinger, Alexander; Noack, Vera; Knopf, Stefan; Konrad, Wilfried; Scheer, Dirk; Class, Holger

    2017-06-01

    Saltwater intrusion into potential drinking water aquifers due to the injection of CO2 into deep saline aquifers is one of the hazards associated with the geological storage of CO2. Thus, in a site-specific risk assessment, models for predicting the fate of the displaced brine are required. Practical simulation of brine displacement involves decisions regarding the complexity of the model. The choice of an appropriate level of model complexity depends on multiple criteria: the target variable of interest, the relevant physical processes, the computational demand, the availability of data, and the data uncertainty. In this study, we set up a regional-scale geological model for a realistic (but not real) onshore site in the North German Basin with characteristic geological features for that region. A major aim of this work is to identify the relevant parameters controlling saltwater intrusion in a complex structural setting and to test the applicability of different model simplifications. The model that is used to identify relevant parameters fully couples flow in shallow freshwater aquifers and deep saline aquifers. This model also includes variable-density transport of salt and realistically incorporates surface boundary conditions with groundwater recharge. The complexity of this model is then reduced in several steps, by neglecting physical processes (two-phase flow near the injection well, variable-density flow) and by simplifying the complex geometry of the geological model. The results indicate that the initial salt distribution prior to the injection of CO2 is one of the key parameters controlling shallow aquifer salinization. However, determining the initial salt distribution involves large uncertainties in the regional-scale hydrogeological parameterization and requires complex and computationally demanding models (regional-scale variable-density salt transport). In order to evaluate strategies for minimizing leakage into shallow aquifers, other target

  4. Spatial scale separation in regional climate modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feser, F.

    2005-07-01

    In this thesis the concept of scale separation is introduced as a tool for first improving regional climate model simulations and, secondly, to explicitly detect and describe the added value obtained by regional modelling. The basic idea behind this is that global and regional climate models have their best performance at different spatial scales. Therefore the regional model should not alter the global model's results at large scales. The for this purpose designed concept of nudging of large scales controls the large scales within the regional model domain and keeps them close to the global forcing model whereby the regional scales are left unchanged. For ensemble simulations nudging of large scales strongly reduces the divergence of the different simulations compared to the standard approach ensemble that occasionally shows large differences for the individual realisations. For climate hindcasts this method leads to results which are on average closer to observed states than the standard approach. Also the analysis of the regional climate model simulation can be improved by separating the results into different spatial domains. This was done by developing and applying digital filters that perform the scale separation effectively without great computational effort. The separation of the results into different spatial scales simplifies model validation and process studies. The search for 'added value' can be conducted on the spatial scales the regional climate model was designed for giving clearer results than by analysing unfiltered meteorological fields. To examine the skill of the different simulations pattern correlation coefficients were calculated between the global reanalyses, the regional climate model simulation and, as a reference, of an operational regional weather analysis. The regional climate model simulation driven with large-scale constraints achieved a high increase in similarity to the operational analyses for medium-scale 2 meter

  5. Shadowing in the scaling region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, G.

    1989-01-01

    The approximate scaling behaviour of the shadowing effect at small χ, recently observed in deep inelastic muon scattering experiments on nuclei, is shown to arise naturally at very large ν in those hadron dominance models, formulated many years ago, which are dual to the parton model. At smaller ν small scale breaking effects are expected, which sould die away as ν increases. The predicted shadowing decreases rapidly with increasing χ, at a rate which is only weakly dependent on the atomic number A for reasonably large A. (orig.)

  6. HIV due to female sex work: regional and global estimates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annette Prüss-Ustün

    Full Text Available Female sex workers (FSWs are at high risk of HIV infection. Our objective was to determine the proportion of HIV prevalence in the general female adult population that is attributable to the occupational exposure of female sex work, due to unprotected sexual intercourse.Population attributable fractions of HIV prevalence due to female sex work were estimated for 2011. A systematic search was conducted to retrieve required input data from available sources. Data gaps of HIV prevalence in FSWs for 2011 were filled using multilevel modeling and multivariate linear regression. The fraction of HIV attributable to female sex work was estimated as the excess HIV burden in FSWs deducting the HIV burden in FSWs due to injecting drug use.An estimated fifteen percent of HIV in the general female adult population is attributable to (unsafe female sex work. The region with the highest attributable fraction is Sub Saharan Africa, but the burden is also substantial for the Caribbean, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. We estimate 106,000 deaths from HIV are a result of female sex work globally, 98,000 of which occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. If HIV prevalence in other population groups originating from sexual contact with FSWs had been considered, the overall attributable burden would probably be much larger.Female sex work is an important contributor to HIV transmission and the global HIV burden. Effective HIV prevention measures exist and have been successfully targeted at key populations in many settings. These must be scaled up.FSWs suffer from high HIV burden and are a crucial core population for HIV transmission. Surveillance, prevention and treatment of HIV in FSWs should benefit both this often neglected vulnerable group and the general population.

  7. HIV Due to Female Sex Work: Regional and Global Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Wolf, Jennyfer; Driscoll, Tim; Degenhardt, Louisa; Neira, Maria; Calleja, Jesus Maria Garcia

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Female sex workers (FSWs) are at high risk of HIV infection. Our objective was to determine the proportion of HIV prevalence in the general female adult population that is attributable to the occupational exposure of female sex work, due to unprotected sexual intercourse. Methods Population attributable fractions of HIV prevalence due to female sex work were estimated for 2011. A systematic search was conducted to retrieve required input data from available sources. Data gaps of HIV prevalence in FSWs for 2011 were filled using multilevel modeling and multivariate linear regression. The fraction of HIV attributable to female sex work was estimated as the excess HIV burden in FSWs deducting the HIV burden in FSWs due to injecting drug use. Results An estimated fifteen percent of HIV in the general female adult population is attributable to (unsafe) female sex work. The region with the highest attributable fraction is Sub Saharan Africa, but the burden is also substantial for the Caribbean, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. We estimate 106,000 deaths from HIV are a result of female sex work globally, 98,000 of which occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. If HIV prevalence in other population groups originating from sexual contact with FSWs had been considered, the overall attributable burden would probably be much larger. Discussion Female sex work is an important contributor to HIV transmission and the global HIV burden. Effective HIV prevention measures exist and have been successfully targeted at key populations in many settings. These must be scaled up. Conclusion FSWs suffer from high HIV burden and are a crucial core population for HIV transmission. Surveillance, prevention and treatment of HIV in FSWs should benefit both this often neglected vulnerable group and the general population. PMID:23717432

  8. Large-scale regions of antimatter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grobov, A. V.; Rubin, S. G.

    2015-01-01

    Amodified mechanism of the formation of large-scale antimatter regions is proposed. Antimatter appears owing to fluctuations of a complex scalar field that carries a baryon charge in the inflation era

  9. Large-scale regions of antimatter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grobov, A. V., E-mail: alexey.grobov@gmail.com; Rubin, S. G., E-mail: sgrubin@mephi.ru [National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Russian Federation)

    2015-07-15

    Amodified mechanism of the formation of large-scale antimatter regions is proposed. Antimatter appears owing to fluctuations of a complex scalar field that carries a baryon charge in the inflation era.

  10. Scaling Laws for Dynamic Aperture due to Chromatic Sextupoles

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    1997-01-01

    Scaling laws for the dynamic aperture due to chromatic sextupoles are investigated. The problem is addressed in a simplified lattice model containing 4 N identical cells and one linear betatron phase shifter to break the overall cell-lattice symmetry. Two families of chromatic sextupoles are used to compensate the natural chromaticity. Analytical formulae for the dynamic apertur as a function of the number of cells and of the cell length are found and confirmed through computer tracking.

  11. Multi-scale Regions from Edge Fragments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kazmi, Wajahat; Andersen, Hans Jørgen

    2014-01-01

    In this article we introduce a novel method for detecting multi-scale salient regions around edges using a graph based image compression algorithm. Images are recursively decomposed into triangles arranged into a binary tree using linear interpolation. The entropy of any local region of the image......), their performance is comparable to SIFT (Lowe, 2004).We also show that when they are used together with MSERs (Matas et al., 2002), the performance of MSERs is boosted....

  12. On Distance Scale Bias due to Stellar Multiplicity and Associations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Richard I.; Riess, Adam

    2018-01-01

    The Cepheid Period-luminosity relation (Leavitt Law) provides the most accurate footing for the cosmic distance scale (CDS). Recently, evidence has been presented that the value of the Hubble constant H0 measured via the cosmic distance scale differs by 3.4σ from the value inferred using Planck data assuming ΛCDM cosmology (Riess et al. 2016). This exciting result may point to missing physics in the cosmological model; however, before such a claim can be made, careful analyses must address possible systematics involved in the calibration of the CDS.A frequently made claim in the literature is that companion stars or cluster membership of Cepheids may bias the calibration of the CDS. To evaluate this claim, we have carried out the first detailed study of the impact of Cepheid multiplicity and cluster membership on the determination of H0. Using deep HST imaging of M31 we directly measured the mean photometric bias due to cluster companions on Cepheid-based distances. Together with the empirical determination of the frequency with which Cepheids appear in clusters we quantify the combined H0 bias from close associations to be approximately 0.3% (0.20 km s-1 Mpc-1) for the passbands commonly used. Thus, we demonstrate that stellar associations cannot explain the aforementioned discrepancy observed in H0 and do not prevent achieving the community goal of measuring H0 with an accuracy of 1%. We emphasize the subtle, but important, difference between systematics relevant for calibrating the Leavitt Law (achieving a better understanding of stellar physics) and for accurately calibrating the CDS (measuring H0).

  13. Pressure Scalings and Influence Region Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    AFRL-RQ-WP-TP-2018-0015 PRESSURE SCALINGS AND INFLUENCE REGION RESEARCH James H. Miller High Speed Systems Division...inside pages STINFO COPY AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY AEROSPACE SYSTEMS DIRECTORATE WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, OH... RESEARCH 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER In-house 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 62201F 6. AUTHOR(S) James H. Miller 5d. PROJECT NUMBER

  14. Projected Regional Climate in 2025 Due to Urban Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Messen, Dmitry

    2005-01-01

    By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent.

  15. Regional scale analysis of the altimetric stream network evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Ghizzoni

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Floods result from the limited carrying capacity of stream channels when compared to the discharge peak value. The transit of flood waves - with the associated erosion and sedimentation processes - often modifies local stream geometry. In some cases this results in a reduction of the stream carrying capacity, and consequently in an enhancement of the flooding risk. A mathematical model for the prediction of potential altimetric stream network evolution due to erosion and sedimentation processes is here formalized. It works at the regional scale, identifying the tendency of river segments to sedimentation, stability, or erosion. The model builds on geomorphologic concepts, and derives its parameters from extensive surveys. As a case study, tendencies of rivers pertaining to the Valle d'Aosta region are analyzed. Some validation is provided both at regional and local scales of analysis. Local validation is performed both through a mathematical model able to simulate the temporal evolution of the stream profile, and through comparison of the prediction with ante and post-event river surveys, where available. Overall results are strongly encouraging. Possible use of the information derived from the model in the context of flood and landslide hazard mitigation is briefly discussed.

  16. Scaling of heat transfer augmentation due to mechanical distortions in hypervelocity boundary layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaherty, W.; Austin, J. M.

    2013-10-01

    We examine the response of hypervelocity boundary layers to global mechanical distortions due to concave surface curvature. Surface heat transfer and visual boundary layer thickness data are obtained for a suite of models with different concave surface geometries. Results are compared to predictions using existing approximate methods. Near the leading edge, good agreement is observed, but at larger pressure gradients, predictions diverge significantly from the experimental data. Up to a factor of five underprediction is reported in regions with greatest distortion. Curve fits to the experimental data are compared with surface equations. We demonstrate that reasonable estimates of the laminar heat flux augmentation may be obtained as a function of the local turning angle for all model geometries, even at the conditions of greatest distortion. This scaling may be explained by the application of Lees similarity. As a means of introducing additional local distortions, vortex generators are used to impose streamwise structures into the boundary layer. The response of the large scale vortices to an adverse pressure gradient is investigated. Surface streak evolution is visualized over the different surface geometries using fast response pressure sensitive paint. For a flat plate baseline case, heat transfer augmentation at similar levels to turbulent flow is measured. For the concave geometries, increases in heat transfer by factors up to 2.6 are measured over the laminar values. The scaling of heat transfer with turning angle that is identified for the laminar boundary layer response is found to be robust even in the presence of the imposed vortex structures.

  17. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, N. G.; Williams, A. P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, S.; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.; Mackay, D. S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, J. C.; Allen, C. D.; Fisher, R. A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J. D.; Breshears, D. D.; Rauscher, S. A.; Koven, C.

    2016-03-01

    Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted >=50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

  18. Biogas infrastructure from farm-scale to regional scale, line-pack storage in biogas grids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hengeveld, Evert Jan

    2016-01-01

    Biogas infrastructure from farm-scale to regional scale, line-pack storage in biogas grids. The number of local and regional initiatives encouraging the production and use of regional produced energy grows. In these new developments biogas can play a role, as a producer of energy, but also in

  19. Regional averaging and scaling in relativistic cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchert, Thomas; Carfora, Mauro

    2002-01-01

    Averaged inhomogeneous cosmologies lie at the forefront of interest, since cosmological parameters such as the rate of expansion or the mass density are to be considered as volume-averaged quantities and only these can be compared with observations. For this reason the relevant parameters are intrinsically scale-dependent and one wishes to control this dependence without restricting the cosmological model by unphysical assumptions. In the latter respect we contrast our way to approach the averaging problem in relativistic cosmology with shortcomings of averaged Newtonian models. Explicitly, we investigate the scale-dependence of Eulerian volume averages of scalar functions on Riemannian three-manifolds. We propose a complementary view of a Lagrangian smoothing of (tensorial) variables as opposed to their Eulerian averaging on spatial domains. This programme is realized with the help of a global Ricci deformation flow for the metric. We explain rigorously the origin of the Ricci flow which, on heuristic grounds, has already been suggested as a possible candidate for smoothing the initial dataset for cosmological spacetimes. The smoothing of geometry implies a renormalization of averaged spatial variables. We discuss the results in terms of effective cosmological parameters that would be assigned to the smoothed cosmological spacetime. In particular, we find that on the smoothed spatial domain B-bar evaluated cosmological parameters obey Ω-bar B-bar m + Ω-bar B-bar R + Ω-bar B-bar A + Ω-bar B-bar Q 1, where Ω-bar B-bar m , Ω-bar B-bar R and Ω-bar B-bar A correspond to the standard Friedmannian parameters, while Ω-bar B-bar Q is a remnant of cosmic variance of expansion and shear fluctuations on the averaging domain. All these parameters are 'dressed' after smoothing out the geometrical fluctuations, and we give the relations of the 'dressed' to the 'bare' parameters. While the former provide the framework of interpreting observations with a 'Friedmannian bias

  20. PERFORMANCE DETERIORATION OF THERMOSIPHON SOLAR FLAT PLATE WATER HEATER DUE TO SCALING

    OpenAIRE

    arunachala umesh chandavar

    2011-01-01

    The performance of Flat plate Solar Water Heater deteriorates within five to twelve years of their installation due to factors related to manufacturing, operating conditions, lack of maintenance etc. Especially, problem due to scaling is significant as it is based on quality of water used. The remaining factors are system dependent and could be overcome by quality production. Software is developed by incorporating Hottel Whillier Bliss (H-W-B) equation to ascertain the effect of scaling o...

  1. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  2. Renewable biomass energy: Understanding regional scale environmental impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, R.L.; Downing, M.

    1993-12-31

    If biomass energy is to become a significant component of the US energy sector, millions of acres of farmland must be converted to energy crops. The environmental implications of this change in land use must be quantitatively evaluated. The land use changes will be largely driven by economic considerations. Farmers will grow energy crops when it is profitable to do so. Thus, models which purport to predict environmental changes induced by energy crop production must take into account those economic features which will influence land use change. In this paper, we present an approach for projecting the probable environmental impacts of growing energy crops at the regional scale. The approach takes into account both economic and environmental factors. We demonstrate the approach by analyzing, at a county-level the probable impact of switchgrass production on erosion, evapotranspiration, nitrate in runoff, and phosphorous fertilizer use in multi-county subregions within the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) region. Our results show that the adoption of switchgrass production will have different impacts in each subregion as a result of differences in the initial land use and soil conditions in the subregions. Erosion, evapotranspiration, and nitrate in runoff are projected to decrease in both subregions as switchgrass displaces the current crops. Phosphorous fertilizer applications are likely to increase in one subregion and decrease in the other due to initial differences in the types of conventional crops grown in each subregion. Overall these changes portend an improvement in water quality in the subregions with the increasing adoption of switchgrass.

  3. Renewable biomass energy: Understanding regional scale environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graham, R.L.; Downing, M.

    1993-01-01

    If biomass energy is to become a significant component of the US energy sector, millions of acres of farmland must be converted to energy crops. The environmental implications of this change in land use must be quantitatively evaluated. The land use changes will be largely driven by economic considerations. Farmers will grow energy crops when it is profitable to do so. Thus, models which purport to predict environmental changes induced by energy crop production must take into account those economic features which will influence land use change. In this paper, we present an approach for projecting the probable environmental impacts of growing energy crops at the regional scale. The approach takes into account both economic and environmental factors. We demonstrate the approach by analyzing, at a county-level, the probable impact of switchgrass production on erosion, evapotranspiration, nitrate in runoff, and phosphorous fertilizer use in two multi-county subregions within the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) region. Our results show that the adoption of switchgrass production will have different impacts in each subregion as a result of differences in the initial land use and soil conditions in the subregions. Erosion, evapotranspiration, and nitrate in runoff are projected to decrease in both subregions as switchgrass displaces the current crops. Phosphorous fertilizer applications are likely to increase in one subregion and decrease in the other due to initial differences in the types of conventional crops grown in each subregion. Overall these changes portend an improvement in water quality in the subregions with the increasing adoption of switchgrass

  4. Arctic Tundra Greening and Browning at Circumpolar and Regional Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, H. E.; Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Raynolds, M. K.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Remote sensing data have historically been used to assess the dynamics of arctic tundra vegetation. Until recently the scientific literature has largely described the "greening" of the Arctic; from a remote sensing perspective, an increase in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), or a similar satellite-based vegetation index. Vegetation increases have been heterogeneous throughout the Arctic, and were reported to be up to 25% in certain areas over a 30-year timespan. However, more recently, arctic tundra vegetation dynamics have gotten more complex, with observations of more widespread tundra "browning" being reported. We used a combination of remote sensing data, including the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS), as well as higher spatial resolution Landsat data, to evaluate the spatio-temporal patterns of arctic tundra vegetation dynamics (greening and browning) at circumpolar and regional scales over the past 3-4 decades. At the circumpolar scale, we focus on the spatial heterogeneity (by tundra subzone and continent) of tundra browning over the past 5-15 years, followed by a more recent recovery (greening since 2015). Landsat time series allow us to evaluate the landscape-scale heterogeneity of tundra greening and browning for northern Alaska and the Yamal Peninsula in northwestern Siberia, Russia. Multi-dataset analyses reveal that tundra greening and browning (i.e. increases or decreases in the NDVI respectively) are generated by different sets of processes. Tundra greening is largely a result of either climate warming, lengthening of the growing season, or responses to disturbances, such as fires, landslides, and freeze-thaw processes. Browning on the other hand tends to be more event-driven, such as the shorter-term decline in vegetation due to fire, insect defoliation, consumption by larger herbivores, or extreme weather events (e.g. winter warming or early summer frost damage). Browning can also be caused by local or

  5. Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

    2011-12-01

    Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This

  6. Ecosystem assessment methods for cumulative effects at the regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunsaker, C.T.

    1989-01-01

    Environmental issues such as nonpoint-source pollution, acid rain, reduced biodiversity, land use change, and climate change have widespread ecological impacts and require an integrated assessment approach. Since 1978, the implementing regulations for the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) have required assessment of potential cumulative environmental impacts. Current environmental issues have encouraged ecologists to improve their understanding of ecosystem process and function at several spatial scales. However, management activities usually occur at the local scale, and there is little consideration of the potential impacts to the environmental quality of a region. This paper proposes that regional ecological risk assessment provides a useful approach for assisting scientists in accomplishing the task of assessing cumulative impacts. Critical issues such as spatial heterogeneity, boundary definition, and data aggregation are discussed. Examples from an assessment of acidic deposition effects on fish in Adirondack lakes illustrate the importance of integrated data bases, associated modeling efforts, and boundary definition at the regional scale

  7. Deliberation and Scale in Mekong Region Water Governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dore, John; Lebel, Louis

    2010-07-01

    Understanding the politics of deliberation, scales, and levels is crucial to understanding the social complexity of water-related governance. Deliberative processes might complement and inform more conventional representational and bureaucratic approaches to planning and decision-making. However, they are also subject to scale and level politics, which can confound institutionalized decision-making. Scale and level contests arise in dialogues and related arenas because different actors privilege particular temporal or spatial scales and levels in their analysis, arguments, and responses. Scale contests might include whether to privilege administrative, hydrological, ecosystem, or economic boundaries. Level contests might include whether to privilege the subdistrict or the province, the tributary watershed or the international river basin, a river or a biogeographic region, and the local or the regional economy. In the Mekong Region there is a recurrent demand for water resources development projects and major policies proposed by governments and investors to be scrutinized in public. Deliberative forms of engagement are potentially very helpful because they encourage supporters and critics to articulate assumptions and reasoning about the different opportunities and risks associated with alternative options, and in doing so, they often traverse and enable higher-quality conversations within and across scales and within and between levels. Six case studies from the Mekong Region are examined. We find evidence that scale and level politics affects the context, process, content, and outcomes of deliberative engagement in a region where public deliberation is still far from being a norm, particularly where there are sensitive and far-reaching choices to be made about water use and energy production.

  8. Local magnitude scale for Valle Medio del Magdalena region, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Londoño, John Makario; Romero, Jaime A.

    2017-12-01

    A local Magnitude (ML) scale for Valle Medio del Magdalena (VMM) region was defined by using 514 high quality earthquakes located at VMM area and inversion of 2797 amplitude values of horizontal components of 17 stations seismic broad band stations, simulated in a Wood-Anderson seismograph. The derived local magnitude scale for VMM region was: ML =log(A) + 1.3744 ∗ log(r) + 0.0014776 ∗ r - 2.397 + S Where A is the zero-to-peak amplitude in nm in horizontal components, r is the hypocentral distance in km, and S is the station correction. Higher values of ML were obtained for VMM region compared with those obtained with the current formula used for ML determination, and with California formula. With this new scale ML values are adjusted to local conditions beneath VMM region leading to more realistic ML values. Moreover, with this new ML scale the seismicity caused by tectonic or fracking activity at VMM region can be monitored more accurately.

  9. Spatial scaling of regional strategic programmes in Finland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Makkonen, Teemu; Inkinen, Tommi

    2014-01-01

    framework. Spatial scales proved to be a black box for regional strategies in Finland. Regional strategic programmes use a similar language that ignores the spatial variations of their locations. Clusters and regional innovation systems should be considered as parts of vertical and horizontal interlinkages...... within the economy and not as individual islands of organizational proximities in isolated contexts. It is argued here that an imprecise understanding of the innovation systems and cluster approaches, both conceptually and practically, has led to some ambiguity, resulting in the use of these terms...

  10. Investigation of the large scale regional hydrogeological situation at Ceberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boghammar, A.; Grundfelt, B.; Hartley, L.

    1997-11-01

    The present study forms part of the large-scale groundwater flow studies within the SR 97 project. The site of interest is Ceberg. Within the present study two different regional scale groundwater models have been constructed, one large regional model with an areal extent of about 300 km 2 and one semi-regional model with an areal extent of about 50 km 2 . Different types of boundary conditions have been applied to the models. Topography driven pressures, constant infiltration rates, non-linear infiltration combined specified pressure boundary conditions, and transfer of groundwater pressures from the larger model to the semi-regional model. The present model has shown that: -Groundwater flow paths are mainly local. Large-scale groundwater flow paths are only seen below the depth of the hypothetical repository (below 500 meters) and are very slow. -Locations of recharge and discharge, to and from the site area are in the close vicinity of the site. -The low contrast between major structures and the rock mass means that the factor having the major effect on the flowpaths is the topography. -A sufficiently large model, to incorporate the recharge and discharge areas to the local site is in the order of kilometres. -A uniform infiltration rate boundary condition does not give a good representation of the groundwater movements in the model. -A local site model may be located to cover the site area and a few kilometers of the surrounding region. In order to incorporate all recharge and discharge areas within the site model, the model will be somewhat larger than site scale models at other sites. This is caused by the fact that the discharge areas are divided into three distinct areas to the east, south and west of the site. -Boundary conditions may be supplied to the site model by means of transferring groundwater pressures obtained with the semi-regional model

  11. Toward regional-scale adjoint tomography in the deep earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masson, Y.; Romanowicz, B. A.

    2013-12-01

    Thanks to the development of efficient numerical computation methods, such as the Spectral Element Method (SEM) and to the increasing power of computer clusters, it is now possible to obtain regional-scale images of the Earth's interior using adjoint-tomography (e.g. Tape, C., et al., 2009). As for now, these tomographic models are limited to the upper layers of the earth, i.e., they provide us with high-resolution images of the crust and the upper part of the mantle. Given the gigantic amount of calculation it represents, obtaing similar models at the global scale (i.e. images of the entire Earth) seems out of reach at the moment. Furthermore, it's likely that the first generation of such global adjoint tomographic models will have a resolution significantly smaller than the current regional models. In order to image regions of interests in the deep Earth, such as plumes, slabs or large low shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs), while keeping the computation tractable, we are developing new tools that will allow us to perform regional-scale adjoint-tomography at arbitrary depths. In a recent study (Masson et al., 2013), we showed that a numerical equivalent of the time reversal mirrors used in experimental acoustics permits to confine the wave propagation computations (i.e. using SEM simulations) inside the region to be imaged. With this ability to limit wave propagation modeling inside a region of interest, obtaining the adjoint sensitivity kernels needed for tomographic imaging is only two steps further. First, the local wavefield modeling needs to be coupled with field extrapolation techniques in order to obtain synthetic seismograms at the surface of the earth. These seismograms will account for the 3D structure inside the region of interest in a quasi-exact manner. We will present preliminary results where the field-extrapolation is performed using Green's function computed in a 1D Earth model thanks to the Direct Solution Method (DSM). Once synthetic seismograms

  12. Sediment budget variation at watershed scale due to anthropogenic pressures, and its relationship to coastal erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiello, Antonello; Adamo, Maria; Canora, Filomena

    2014-05-01

    The transfer of sediments from hydrographic basins towards the coast is a significant pathway of material transfer on Earth. In sedimentary environment, the main portion of sediment that enters the coastal areas is derived originally from erosion in the coastal watersheds. Extensive anthropogenic pressures carried out within coastal basins have long shown negative impacts on littoral environments. In fluvial systems, sediments trapped behind dams and in-stream gravel mining cause the reduction in sediment supply to the coast. Along the Jonian littoral of the Basilicata Region (southern Italy), natural coastal processes have been severely disrupted since the second half of the 20th century as a result of riverbed sand and gravel mining and dam construction, when economic advantages were measured in terms of the development of infrastructure, water storage, and hydropower production for the agricultural, industrial and socio-economic development of the area. Particularly, the large numbers of dams and impoundments that have been built in the hydrographic basins have led a signi?cant reduction on river sediment loads. As a result, the Jonian littoral is experiencing a catalysed erosion phenomenon. In order to increase understanding of the morpho-dynamics of the Jonian littoral environment and more fully appreciate the amount of coastal erosion, an evaluation of the sediment budget change due to dam construction within the hydrographic basins of the Basilicata Region needs to be explored. Since quantitative data on decadal trends in river sediment supply before and after dam construction are lacking, as well as updated dam silting values, river basin assessment of the spatial patterns and estimated amount of sediment erosion and deposition are important in evaluating changes in the sediment budget. As coastal areas are being affected by an increasing number of population and socio-economic activities, the amount of sediment deficit at the littoral can permit to

  13. Ground water pollution due to aquaculture in east coast region of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. Ground water quality parameters were studied for pollution due to aquaculture in the east coast region of district Andhrapradesh, India. Over a period of two years, 46 groundwater samples were collected for analyses. The results showed that the alkalinity ranged from 120 - 482 mg/L, and pH ranged from 7.1 to 8.6.

  14. Accounting for model error due to unresolved scales within ensemble Kalman filtering

    OpenAIRE

    Mitchell, Lewis; Carrassi, Alberto

    2014-01-01

    We propose a method to account for model error due to unresolved scales in the context of the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF). The approach extends to this class of algorithms the deterministic model error formulation recently explored for variational schemes and extended Kalman filter. The model error statistic required in the analysis update is estimated using historical reanalysis increments and a suitable model error evolution law. Two different versions of the method are describe...

  15. Globalizing Lessons Learned from Regional-scale Observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, S. M.

    2016-02-01

    The Mid Atlantic Regional Association Coastal Ocean Observing System (MARACOOS) has accumulated a decade of experience designing, building and operating a Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System for the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). MARACOOS serves societal goals and supports scientific discovery at the scale of a Large Marine Ecosystem (LME). Societal themes include maritime safety, ecosystem decision support, coastal inundation, water quality and offshore energy. Scientific results that feed back on societal goals with better products include improved understanding of seasonal transport pathways and their impact on phytoplankton blooms and hypoxia, seasonal evolution of the subsurface Mid Atlantic Cold Pool and its impact on fisheries, biogeochemical transformations in coastal plumes, coastal ocean evolution and impact on hurricane intensities, and storm sediment transport pathways. As the global ocean observing requirements grow to support additional societal needs for information on fisheries and aquaculture, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, water quality and offshore development, global observing will necessarily evolve to include more coastal observations and forecast models at the scale of the world's many LMEs. Here we describe our efforts to share lessons learned between the observatory operators at the regional-scale of the LMEs. Current collaborators are spread across Europe, and also include Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil and South Africa. Specific examples include the development of a world standard QA/QC approach for HF Radar data that will foster the sharing of data between countries, basin-scale underwater glider missions between internationally-distributed glider ports to developed a shared understanding of operations and an ongoing evaluation of the global ocean models in which the regional models for the LME will be nested, and joint training programs to develop the distributed teams of scientists and technicians

  16. Invasive lionfish reduce native fish abundance on a regional scale

    OpenAIRE

    Ballew, Nicholas G.; Bacheler, Nathan M.; Kellison, G. Todd; Schueller, Amy M.

    2016-01-01

    Invasive lionfish pose an unprecedented threat to biodiversity and fisheries throughout Atlantic waters off of the southeastern United States, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico. Here, we employ a spatially replicated Before-After-Control-Impact analysis with temporal pairing to quantify for the first time the impact of the lionfish invasion on native fish abundance across a broad regional scale and over the entire duration of the lionfish invasion (1990?2014). Our results suggest that 1) ...

  17. Multi-scaling allometric analysis for urban and regional development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yanguang

    2017-01-01

    The concept of allometric growth is based on scaling relations, and it has been applied to urban and regional analysis for a long time. However, most allometric analyses were devoted to the single proportional relation between two elements of a geographical system. Few researches focus on the allometric scaling of multielements. In this paper, a process of multiscaling allometric analysis is developed for the studies on spatio-temporal evolution of complex systems. By means of linear algebra, general system theory, and by analogy with the analytical hierarchy process, the concepts of allometric growth can be integrated with the ideas from fractal dimension. Thus a new methodology of geo-spatial analysis and the related theoretical models emerge. Based on the least squares regression and matrix operations, a simple algorithm is proposed to solve the multiscaling allometric equation. Applying the analytical method of multielement allometry to Chinese cities and regions yields satisfying results. A conclusion is reached that the multiscaling allometric analysis can be employed to make a comprehensive evaluation for the relative levels of urban and regional development, and explain spatial heterogeneity. The notion of multiscaling allometry may enrich the current theory and methodology of spatial analyses of urban and regional evolution.

  18. Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Welsch, M.

    2015-01-01

    KTH Royal Institute of Technology was founded in 1827 and it is the largest technical university in Sweden with five campuses and Around 15,000 students. KTH-dESA combines an outstanding knowledge in the field of energy systems analysis. This is demonstrated by the successful collaborations with many (UN) organizations. Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa include Assessing renewable energy potentials; Analysing investment strategies; ) Assessing climate resilience; Comparing electrification options; Providing web-based decision support; and Quantifying energy access. It is conclude that Strategies required to ensure a robust and flexible energy system (-> no-regret choices); Capacity investments should be in line with national & regional strategies; Climate change important to consider, as it may strongly influence the energy flows in a region; Long-term models can help identify robust energy investment strategies and pathways that Can help assess future markets and profitability of individual projects

  19. CALCULATING ENERGY STORAGE DUE TO TOPOLOGICAL CHANGES IN EMERGING ACTIVE REGION NOAA AR 11112

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarr, Lucas; Longcope, Dana

    2012-01-01

    The minimum current corona model provides a way to estimate stored coronal energy using the number of field lines connecting regions of positive and negative photospheric flux. This information is quantified by the net flux connecting pairs of opposing regions in a connectivity matrix. Changes in the coronal magnetic field, due to processes such as magnetic reconnection, manifest themselves as changes in the connectivity matrix. However, the connectivity matrix will also change when flux sources emerge or submerge through the photosphere, as often happens in active regions. We have developed an algorithm to estimate the changes in flux due to emergence and submergence of magnetic flux sources. These estimated changes must be accounted for in order to quantify storage and release of magnetic energy in the corona. To perform this calculation over extended periods of time, we must additionally have a consistently labeled connectivity matrix over the entire observational time span. We have therefore developed an automated tracking algorithm to generate a consistent connectivity matrix as the photospheric source regions evolve over time. We have applied this method to NOAA Active Region 11112, which underwent a GOES M2.9 class flare around 19:00 on 2010 October 16th, and calculated a lower bound on the free magnetic energy buildup of ∼8.25 × 10 30 erg over 3 days.

  20. Error due to unresolved scales in estimation problems for atmospheric data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janjic, Tijana

    The error arising due to unresolved scales in data assimilation procedures is examined. The problem of estimating the projection of the state of a passive scalar undergoing advection at a sequence of times is considered. The projection belongs to a finite- dimensional function space and is defined on the continuum. Using the continuum projection of the state of a passive scalar, a mathematical definition is obtained for the error arising due to the presence, in the continuum system, of scales unresolved by the discrete dynamical model. This error affects the estimation procedure through point observations that include the unresolved scales. In this work, two approximate methods for taking into account the error due to unresolved scales and the resulting correlations are developed and employed in the estimation procedure. The resulting formulas resemble the Schmidt-Kalman filter and the usual discrete Kalman filter, respectively. For this reason, the newly developed filters are called the Schmidt-Kalman filter and the traditional filter. In order to test the assimilation methods, a two- dimensional advection model with nonstationary spectrum was developed for passive scalar transport in the atmosphere. An analytical solution on the sphere was found depicting the model dynamics evolution. Using this analytical solution the model error is avoided, and the error due to unresolved scales is the only error left in the estimation problem. It is demonstrated that the traditional and the Schmidt- Kalman filter work well provided the exact covariance function of the unresolved scales is known. However, this requirement is not satisfied in practice, and the covariance function must be modeled. The Schmidt-Kalman filter cannot be computed in practice without further approximations. Therefore, the traditional filter is better suited for practical use. Also, the traditional filter does not require modeling of the full covariance function of the unresolved scales, but only

  1. Mangroves Enhance Reef Fish Abundance at the Caribbean Regional Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serafy, Joseph E; Shideler, Geoffrey S; Araújo, Rafael J; Nagelkerken, Ivan

    2015-01-01

    Several studies conducted at the scale of islands, or small sections of continental coastlines, have suggested that mangrove habitats serve to enhance fish abundances on coral reefs, mainly by providing nursery grounds for several ontogenetically-migrating species. However, evidence of such enhancement at a regional scale has not been reported, and recently, some researchers have questioned the mangrove-reef subsidy effect. In the present study, using two different regression approaches, we pursued two questions related to mangrove-reef connectivity at the Caribbean regional scale: (1) Are reef fish abundances limited by mangrove forest area?; and (2) Are mean reef fish abundances proportional to mangrove forest area after taking human population density and latitude into account? Specifically, we tested for Caribbean-wide mangrove forest area effects on the abundances of 12 reef fishes that have been previously characterized as "mangrove-dependent". Analyzed were data from an ongoing, long-term (20-year) citizen-scientist fish monitoring program; coastal human population censuses; and several wetland forest information sources. Quantile regression results supported the notion that mangrove forest area limits the abundance of eight of the 12 fishes examined. Linear mixed-effects regression results, which considered potential human (fishing and habitat degradation) and latitudinal influences, suggested that average reef fish densities of at least six of the 12 focal fishes were directly proportional to mangrove forest area. Recent work questioning the mangrove-reef fish subsidy effect likely reflects a failure to: (1) focus analyses on species that use mangroves as nurseries, (2) consider more than the mean fish abundance response to mangrove forest extent; and/or (3) quantitatively account for potentially confounding human impacts, such as fishing pressure and habitat degradation. Our study is the first to demonstrate at a large regional scale (i.e., the Wider

  2. Mangroves Enhance Reef Fish Abundance at the Caribbean Regional Scale.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph E Serafy

    Full Text Available Several studies conducted at the scale of islands, or small sections of continental coastlines, have suggested that mangrove habitats serve to enhance fish abundances on coral reefs, mainly by providing nursery grounds for several ontogenetically-migrating species. However, evidence of such enhancement at a regional scale has not been reported, and recently, some researchers have questioned the mangrove-reef subsidy effect. In the present study, using two different regression approaches, we pursued two questions related to mangrove-reef connectivity at the Caribbean regional scale: (1 Are reef fish abundances limited by mangrove forest area?; and (2 Are mean reef fish abundances proportional to mangrove forest area after taking human population density and latitude into account? Specifically, we tested for Caribbean-wide mangrove forest area effects on the abundances of 12 reef fishes that have been previously characterized as "mangrove-dependent". Analyzed were data from an ongoing, long-term (20-year citizen-scientist fish monitoring program; coastal human population censuses; and several wetland forest information sources. Quantile regression results supported the notion that mangrove forest area limits the abundance of eight of the 12 fishes examined. Linear mixed-effects regression results, which considered potential human (fishing and habitat degradation and latitudinal influences, suggested that average reef fish densities of at least six of the 12 focal fishes were directly proportional to mangrove forest area. Recent work questioning the mangrove-reef fish subsidy effect likely reflects a failure to: (1 focus analyses on species that use mangroves as nurseries, (2 consider more than the mean fish abundance response to mangrove forest extent; and/or (3 quantitatively account for potentially confounding human impacts, such as fishing pressure and habitat degradation. Our study is the first to demonstrate at a large regional scale (i

  3. A method to determine the mammographic regions that show early changes due to the development of breast cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karemore, Gopal; Nielsen, Mads; Karssemeijer, Nico; Brandt, Sami S.

    2014-11-01

    It is well understood nowadays that changes in the mammographic parenchymal pattern are an indicator of a risk of breast cancer and we have developed a statistical method that estimates the mammogram regions where the parenchymal changes, due to breast cancer, occur. This region of interest is computed from a score map by utilising the anatomical breast coordinate system developed in our previous work. The method also makes an automatic scale selection to avoid overfitting while the region estimates are computed by a nested cross-validation scheme. In this way, it is possible to recover those mammogram regions that show a significant difference in classification scores between the cancer and the control group. Our experiments suggested that the most significant mammogram region is the region behind the nipple and that can be justified by previous findings from other research groups. This result was conducted on the basis of the cross-validation experiments on independent training, validation and testing sets from the case-control study of 490 women, of which 245 women were diagnosed with breast cancer within a period of 2-4 years after the baseline mammograms. We additionally generalised the estimated region to another, mini-MIAS study and showed that the transferred region estimate gives at least a similar classification result when compared to the case where the whole breast region is used. In all, by following our method, one most likely improves both preclinical and follow-up breast cancer screening, but a larger study population will be required to test this hypothesis.

  4. A method to determine the mammographic regions that show early changes due to the development of breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karemore, Gopal; Nielsen, Mads; Brandt, Sami S; Karssemeijer, Nico

    2014-01-01

    It is well understood nowadays that changes in the mammographic parenchymal pattern are an indicator of a risk of breast cancer and we have developed a statistical method that estimates the mammogram regions where the parenchymal changes, due to breast cancer, occur. This region of interest is computed from a score map by utilising the anatomical breast coordinate system developed in our previous work. The method also makes an automatic scale selection to avoid overfitting while the region estimates are computed by a nested cross-validation scheme. In this way, it is possible to recover those mammogram regions that show a significant difference in classification scores between the cancer and the control group. Our experiments suggested that the most significant mammogram region is the region behind the nipple and that can be justified by previous findings from other research groups. This result was conducted on the basis of the cross-validation experiments on independent training, validation and testing sets from the case-control study of 490 women, of which 245 women were diagnosed with breast cancer within a period of 2–4 years after the baseline mammograms. We additionally generalised the estimated region to another, mini-MIAS study and showed that the transferred region estimate gives at least a similar classification result when compared to the case where the whole breast region is used. In all, by following our method, one most likely improves both preclinical and follow-up breast cancer screening, but a larger study population will be required to test this hypothesis. (paper)

  5. Scale orientated analysis of river width changes due to extreme flood hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Krapesch

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the morphological effects of extreme floods (recurrence interval >100 years and examines which parameters best describe the width changes due to erosion based on 5 affected alpine gravel bed rivers in Austria. The research was based on vertical aerial photos of the rivers before and after extreme floods, hydrodynamic numerical models and cross sectional measurements supported by LiDAR data of the rivers. Average width ratios (width after/before the flood were calculated and correlated with different hydraulic parameters (specific stream power, shear stress, flow area, specific discharge. Depending on the geomorphological boundary conditions of the different rivers, a mean width ratio between 1.12 (Lech River and 3.45 (Trisanna River was determined on the reach scale. The specific stream power (SSP best predicted the mean width ratios of the rivers especially on the reach scale and sub reach scale. On the local scale more parameters have to be considered to define the "minimum morphological spatial demand of rivers", which is a crucial parameter for addressing and managing flood hazards and should be used in hazard zone plans and spatial planning.

  6. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  7. Regional Scale/Regional Climate Model Development and Its Applications at Goddard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W.; Qian, J.; Jia, Y.; Wetzel, P.; Chou, M.-D.; Wang, Y.; Lynn, B.

    2000-01-01

    A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model (Penn State/NCAR MM5) with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America region.

  8. PERFORMANCE DETERIORATION OF THERMOSIPHON SOLAR FLAT PLATE WATER HEATER DUE TO SCALING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    arunachala umesh chandavar

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available 0 0 1 340 1943 International Islamic University 16 4 2279 14.0 Normal 0 false false false EN-US JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman";} The performance of Flat plate Solar Water Heater deteriorates within five to twelve years of their installation due to factors related to manufacturing, operating conditions, lack of maintenance etc. Especially, problem due to scaling is significant as it is based on quality of water used. The remaining factors are system dependent and could be overcome by quality production. Software is developed by incorporating Hottel Whillier Bliss (H-W-B equation to ascertain the effect of scaling on system efficiency in case of thermosiphon system. In case of clean thermosiphon system, the instantaneous efficiency calculated at 1000 W/m2 radiation is 72 % and it drops to 46 % for 3.7 mm scale thickness. The mass flow rate is reduced by 90 % for 3.7 mm scale thickness. Whereas, the average temperature drop of water in the tank is not critical due to considerable heat content in water under severe scaled condition.  But practically in case of major scale growth, some of the risers are likely to get blocked completely which leads to negligible temperature rise in the tank. ABSTRAK: Prestasi plat rata pemanas air suria merosot selepas lima hingga dua belas tahun  pemasangannya disebabkan faktor-faktor yang berkaitan dengan pembuatannya, cara kendaliannya, kurangnya penyelenggaraan dan sebagainya.  Terutama sekali, masalah disebabkan scaling (tembunan endapan mineral perlu diambil berat kerana ianya bergantung kepada kualiti air yang digunakan. Faktor-faktor selebihya bersandarkan sistem dan ia

  9. Surface temperature and evapotranspiration: application of local scale methods to regional scales using satellite data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seguin, B.; Courault, D.; Guerif, M.

    1994-01-01

    Remotely sensed surface temperatures have proven useful for monitoring evapotranspiration (ET) rates and crop water use because of their direct relationship with sensible and latent energy exchange processes. Procedures for using the thermal infrared (IR) obtained with hand-held radiometers deployed at ground level are now well established and even routine for many agricultural research and management purposes. The availability of IR from meteorological satellites at scales from 1 km (NOAA-AVHRR) to 5 km (METEOSAT) permits extension of local, ground-based approaches to larger scale crop monitoring programs. Regional observations of surface minus air temperature (i.e., the stress degree day) and remote estimates of daily ET were derived from satellite data over sites in France, the Sahel, and North Africa and summarized here. Results confirm that similar approaches can be applied at local and regional scales despite differences in pixel size and heterogeneity. This article analyzes methods for obtaining these data and outlines the potential utility of satellite data for operational use at the regional scale. (author)

  10. Ion-Scale Structure in Mercury's Magnetopause Reconnection Diffusion Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershman, Daniel J.; Dorelli, John C.; DiBraccio, Gina A.; Raines, Jim M.; Slavin, James A.; Poh, Gangkai; Zurbuchen, Thomas H.

    2016-01-01

    The strength and time dependence of the electric field in a magnetopause diffusion region relate to the rate of magnetic reconnection between the solar wind and a planetary magnetic field. Here we use approximately 150 milliseconds measurements of energetic electrons from the Mercury Surface, Space Environment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft observed over Mercury's dayside polar cap boundary (PCB) to infer such small-scale changes in magnetic topology and reconnection rates. We provide the first direct measurement of open magnetic topology in flux transfer events at Mercury, structures thought to account for a significant portion of the open magnetic flux transport throughout the magnetosphere. In addition, variations in PCB latitude likely correspond to intermittent bursts of approximately 0.3 to 3 millivolts per meter reconnection electric fields separated by approximately 5 to10 seconds, resulting in average and peak normalized dayside reconnection rates of approximately 0.02 and approximately 0.2, respectively. These data demonstrate that structure in the magnetopause diffusion region at Mercury occurs at the smallest ion scales relevant to reconnection physics.

  11. Predicting redox conditions in groundwater at a regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Terziotti, Silvia; Abrams, Daniel B.

    2015-01-01

    Defining the oxic-suboxic interface is often critical for determining pathways for nitrate transport in groundwater and to streams at the local scale. Defining this interface on a regional scale is complicated by the spatial variability of reaction rates. The probability of oxic groundwater in the Chesapeake Bay watershed was predicted by relating dissolved O2 concentrations in groundwater samples to indicators of residence time and/or electron donor availability using logistic regression. Variables that describe surficial geology, position in the flow system, and soil drainage were important predictors of oxic water. The probability of encountering oxic groundwater at a 30 m depth and the depth to the bottom of the oxic layer were predicted for the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The influence of depth to the bottom of the oxic layer on stream nitrate concentrations and time lags (i.e., time period between land application of nitrogen and its effect on streams) are illustrated using model simulations for hypothetical basins. Regional maps of the probability of oxic groundwater should prove useful as indicators of groundwater susceptibility and stream susceptibility to contaminant sources derived from groundwater.

  12. Forest fragmentation and bird community dynamics: inference at regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulinier, T.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Flather, C.H.; Pollock, K.H.

    2001-01-01

    With increasing fragmentation of natural areas and a dramatic reduction of forest cover in several parts of the world, quantifying the impact of such changes on species richness and community dynamics has been a subject of much concern. Here, we tested whether in more fragmented landscapes there was a lower number of area-sensitive species and higher local extinction and turnover rates, which could explain higher temporal variability in species richness. To investigate such potential landscape effects at a regional scale, we merged two independent, large-scale monitoring efforts: the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Land Use and Land Cover Classification data from the U.S. Geological Survey. We used methods that accounted for heterogeneity in the probability of detecting species to estimate species richness and temporal changes in the bird communities for BBS routes in three mid-Atlantic U.S. states. Forest breeding bird species were grouped prior to the analyses into area-sensitive and non-area-sensitive species according to previous studies. We tested predictions relating measures of forest structure at one point in time (1974) to species richness at that time and to parameters of forest bird community change over the following 22-yr-period (1975-1996). We used the mean size of forest patches to characterize landscape structure, as high correlations among landscape variables did not allow us to disentangle the relative roles of habitat fragmentation per se and habitat loss. As predicted, together with lower species richness for area-sensitive species on routes surrounded by landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size, we found higher mean year-to-year rates of local extinction. Moreover, the mean year-to-year rates of local turnover (proportion of locally new species) for area-sensitive species were also higher in landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size. These associations were not observed for the non-area-sensitive species group. These

  13. A study on the flow field and local heat transfer performance due to geometric scaling of centrifugal fans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stafford, Jason; Walsh, Ed; Egan, Vanessa

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: ► Velocity field and local heat transfer trends of centrifugal fans. ► Time-averaged vortices are generated by flow separation. ► Local vortex and impingement regions are evident on surface heat transfer maps. ► Miniature centrifugal fans should be designed with an aspect ratio below 0.3. ► Theory under predicts heat transfer due to complex, unsteady outlet flow. - Abstract: Scaled versions of fan designs are often chosen to address thermal management issues in space constrained applications. Using velocity field and local heat transfer measurement techniques, the thermal performance characteristics of a range of geometrically scaled centrifugal fan designs have been investigated. Complex fluid flow structures and surface heat transfer trends due to centrifugal fans were found to be common over a wide range of fan aspect ratios (blade height to fan diameter). The limiting aspect ratio for heat transfer enhancement was 0.3, as larger aspect ratios were shown to result in a reduction in overall thermal performance. Over the range of fans examined, the low profile centrifugal designs produced significant enhancement in thermal performance when compared to that predicted using classical laminar flow theory. The limiting non-dimensional distance from the fan, where this enhancement is no longer apparent, has also been determined. Using the fundamental information inferred from local velocity field and heat transfer measurements, selection criteria can be determined for both low and high power practical applications where space restrictions exist.

  14. Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, X.J.; Zhao, Z.C.; Ding, Y.H.; Huang, R.H.; Giorgi, F. [National Climate Centre, Beijing (China)

    2001-07-01

    Impacts of greenhouse effects (2 x CO{sub 2}) upon climate change over China as simulated by a regional climate model over China (RegCM / China) have been investigated. The model was based on RegCM2 and was nested to a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CSIRO R21L9 AOGCM model). Results of the control run (1 x CO{sub 2}) indicated that simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in China by RegCM are much better than that by the global coupled model because of a higher resolution. Results of sensitive experiment by RegCM with 2 x CO{sub 2} showed that the surface air temperature over China might increase remarkably due to greenhouse effect, especially in winter season and in North China. Precipitation might also increase in most parts of China due to the CO{sub 2} doubling.

  15. DUE GlobBiomass - Estimates of Biomass on a Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberle, J.; Schmullius, C.

    2017-12-01

    For the last three years, a new ESA Data User Element (DUE) project had focussed on creating improved knowledge about the Essential Climate Variable Biomass. The main purpose of the DUE GlobBiomass project is to better characterize and to reduce uncertainties of AGB estimates by developing an innovative synergistic mapping approach in five regional sites (Sweden, Poland, Mexico, Kalimantan, South Africa) for the epochs 2005, 2010 and 2015 and for one global map for the year 2010. The project team includes leading Earth Observation experts of Europe and is linked through Partnership Agreements with further national bodies from Brazil, Canada, China, Russia and South Africa. GlobBiomass has demonstrated how EO observation data can be integrated with in situ measurements and ecological understanding to provide improved biomass estimates that can be effectively exploited by users. The target users had mainly be drawn from the climate and carbon cycle modelling communities and included users concerned with carbon emissions and uptake due to biomass changes within initiatives such as REDD+. GlobBiomass provided a harmonised structure that can be exploited to address user needs for biomass information, but will be capable of being progressively refined as new data and methods become available. This presentation will give an overview of the technical prerequisites and final results of the GlobBiomass project.

  16. Black hole physics. Black hole lightning due to particle acceleration at subhorizon scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleksić, J; Ansoldi, S; Antonelli, L A; Antoranz, P; Babic, A; Bangale, P; Barrio, J A; Becerra González, J; Bednarek, W; Bernardini, E; Biasuzzi, B; Biland, A; Blanch, O; Bonnefoy, S; Bonnoli, G; Borracci, F; Bretz, T; Carmona, E; Carosi, A; Colin, P; Colombo, E; Contreras, J L; Cortina, J; Covino, S; Da Vela, P; Dazzi, F; De Angelis, A; De Caneva, G; De Lotto, B; de Oña Wilhelmi, E; Delgado Mendez, C; Dominis Prester, D; Dorner, D; Doro, M; Einecke, S; Eisenacher, D; Elsaesser, D; Fonseca, M V; Font, L; Frantzen, K; Fruck, C; Galindo, D; García López, R J; Garczarczyk, M; Garrido Terrats, D; Gaug, M; Godinović, N; González Muñoz, A; Gozzini, S R; Hadasch, D; Hanabata, Y; Hayashida, M; Herrera, J; Hildebrand, D; Hose, J; Hrupec, D; Idec, W; Kadenius, V; Kellermann, H; Kodani, K; Konno, Y; Krause, J; Kubo, H; Kushida, J; La Barbera, A; Lelas, D; Lewandowska, N; Lindfors, E; Lombardi, S; Longo, F; López, M; López-Coto, R; López-Oramas, A; Lorenz, E; Lozano, I; Makariev, M; Mallot, K; Maneva, G; Mankuzhiyil, N; Mannheim, K; Maraschi, L; Marcote, B; Mariotti, M; Martínez, M; Mazin, D; Menzel, U; Miranda, J M; Mirzoyan, R; Moralejo, A; Munar-Adrover, P; Nakajima, D; Niedzwiecki, A; Nilsson, K; Nishijima, K; Noda, K; Orito, R; Overkemping, A; Paiano, S; Palatiello, M; Paneque, D; Paoletti, R; Paredes, J M; Paredes-Fortuny, X; Persic, M; Poutanen, J; Prada Moroni, P G; Prandini, E; Puljak, I; Reinthal, R; Rhode, W; Ribó, M; Rico, J; Rodriguez Garcia, J; Rügamer, S; Saito, T; Saito, K; Satalecka, K; Scalzotto, V; Scapin, V; Schultz, C; Schweizer, T; Shore, S N; Sillanpää, A; Sitarek, J; Snidaric, I; Sobczynska, D; Spanier, F; Stamatescu, V; Stamerra, A; Steinbring, T; Storz, J; Strzys, M; Takalo, L; Takami, H; Tavecchio, F; Temnikov, P; Terzić, T; Tescaro, D; Teshima, M; Thaele, J; Tibolla, O; Torres, D F; Toyama, T; Treves, A; Uellenbeck, M; Vogler, P; Zanin, R; Kadler, M; Schulz, R; Ros, E; Bach, U; Krauß, F; Wilms, J

    2014-11-28

    Supermassive black holes with masses of millions to billions of solar masses are commonly found in the centers of galaxies. Astronomers seek to image jet formation using radio interferometry but still suffer from insufficient angular resolution. An alternative method to resolve small structures is to measure the time variability of their emission. Here we report on gamma-ray observations of the radio galaxy IC 310 obtained with the MAGIC (Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov) telescopes, revealing variability with doubling time scales faster than 4.8 min. Causality constrains the size of the emission region to be smaller than 20% of the gravitational radius of its central black hole. We suggest that the emission is associated with pulsar-like particle acceleration by the electric field across a magnetospheric gap at the base of the radio jet. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  17. Simulation of small-scale coronal explosives due to magnetic reconnections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan Quanlin; Feng Xueshang; Xiang Changqing; Zhong Dingkun

    2003-01-01

    The dynamics of small-scale explosive phenomena in the lower corona have been simulated by solving the compressible magnetohydrodynamic equations. Numerical results show that the magnetic reconnections in a long coronal current sheet consist of a series of discrete small reconnection events, coalescence of magnetic islands, and plasmoid ejections, corresponding to the explosive events occurring intermittently and as bursts in a mentioned observational case. The generation of magnetic islands via multiple-X-point reconnection and their coalescence processes, to some extent, are qualitatively similar to the sequence of brightenings in the active region NOAA 8668. The strong ejections are possibly related to the recorded extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emitting structures. Morphological comparison and quantitative check of the plasma parameters support this candidate mechanism, and the idea that explosive events that appear to last long may not be single events, but a succession of explosive events either resolved or unresolved. The temporal energy conversion process is also examined

  18. Spatial data analysis for exploration of regional scale geothermal resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghaddam, Majid Kiavarz; Noorollahi, Younes; Samadzadegan, Farhad; Sharifi, Mohammad Ali; Itoi, Ryuichi

    2013-10-01

    Defining a comprehensive conceptual model of the resources sought is one of the most important steps in geothermal potential mapping. In this study, Fry analysis as a spatial distribution method and 5% well existence, distance distribution, weights of evidence (WofE), and evidential belief function (EBFs) methods as spatial association methods were applied comparatively to known geothermal occurrences, and to publicly-available regional-scale geoscience data in Akita and Iwate provinces within the Tohoku volcanic arc, in northern Japan. Fry analysis and rose diagrams revealed similar directional patterns of geothermal wells and volcanoes, NNW-, NNE-, NE-trending faults, hotsprings and fumaroles. Among the spatial association methods, WofE defined a conceptual model correspondent with the real world situations, approved with the aid of expert opinion. The results of the spatial association analyses quantitatively indicated that the known geothermal occurrences are strongly spatially-associated with geological features such as volcanoes, craters, NNW-, NNE-, NE-direction faults and geochemical features such as hotsprings, hydrothermal alteration zones and fumaroles. Geophysical data contains temperature gradients over 100 °C/km and heat flow over 100 mW/m2. In general, geochemical and geophysical data were better evidence layers than geological data for exploring geothermal resources. The spatial analyses of the case study area suggested that quantitative knowledge from hydrothermal geothermal resources was significantly useful for further exploration and for geothermal potential mapping in the case study region. The results can also be extended to the regions with nearly similar characteristics.

  19. Earth observation for regional scale environmental and natural resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernknopf, R.; Brookshire, D.; Faulkner, S.; Chivoiu, B.; Bridge, B.; Broadbent, C.

    2013-12-01

    Earth observations (EO) provide critical information to natural resource assessment. Three examples are presented: conserving potable groundwater in intense agricultural regions, maximizing ecosystem service benefits at regional scales from afforestation investment and management, and enabling integrated natural and behavioral sciences for resource management and policy analysis. In each of these cases EO of different resolutions are used in different ways to help in the classification, characterization, and availability of natural resources and ecosystem services. To inform decisions, each example includes a spatiotemporal economic model to optimize the net societal benefits of resource development and exploitation. 1) EO is used for monitoring land use in intensively cultivated agricultural regions. Archival imagery is coupled to a hydrogeological process model to evaluate the tradeoff between agrochemical use and retention of potable groundwater. EO is used to couple individual producers and regional resource managers using information from markets and natural systems to aid in the objective of maximizing agricultural production and maintaining groundwater quality. The contribution of EO is input to a nitrate loading and transport model to estimate the cumulative impact on groundwater at specified distances from specific sites (wells) for 35 Iowa counties and two aquifers. 2) Land use/land cover (LULC) derived from EO is used to compare biological carbon sequestration alternatives and their provisioning of ecosystem services. EO is used to target land attributes that are more or less desirable for enhancing ecosystem services in two parishes in Louisiana. Ecological production functions are coupled with value data to maximize the expected return on investment in carbon sequestration and other ancillary ecosystem services while minimizing the risk. 3) Environmental and natural resources management decisions employ probabilistic estimates of yet-to-find or yet

  20. Geographical patterns in cyanobacteria distribution: climate influence at regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitois, Frédéric; Thoraval, Isabelle; Baurès, Estelle; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-01-28

    Cyanobacteria are a component of public health hazards in freshwater environments because of their potential as toxin producers. Eutrophication has long been considered the main cause of cyanobacteria outbreak and proliferation, whereas many studies emphasized the effect of abiotic parameters (mainly temperature and light) on cell growth rate or toxin production. In view of the growing concerns of global change consequences on public health parameters, this study attempts to enlighten climate influence on cyanobacteria at regional scale in Brittany (NW France). The results show that homogeneous cyanobacteria groups are associated with climatic domains related to temperature, global radiation and pluviometry, whereas microcystins (MCs) occurrences are only correlated to local cyanobacteria species composition. As the regional climatic gradient amplitude is similar to the projected climate evolution on a 30-year timespan, a comparison between the present NW and SE situations was used to extrapolate the evolution of geographical cyanobacteria distribution in Brittany. Cyanobacteria composition should shift toward species associated with more frequent Microcystins occurrences along a NW/SE axis whereas lakes situated along a SW/NE axis should transition to species (mainly Nostocales) associated with lower MCs detection frequencies.

  1. Salinization of aquifers at the regional scale by marine transgression: Time scales and processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armandine Les Landes, A.; Davy, P.; Aquilina, L.

    2014-12-01

    Saline fluids with moderate concentrations have been sampled and reported in the Armorican basement at the regional scale (northwestern France). The horizontal and vertical distributions of high chloride concentrations (60-1400mg/L) at the regional scale support the marine origin and provide constraints on the age of these saline fluids. The current distribution of fresh and "saline" groundwater at depth is the result mostly of processes occurring at geological timescales - seawater intrusion processes followed by fresh groundwater flushing -, and only slightly of recent anthropogenic activities. In this study, we focus on seawater intrusion mechanisms in continental aquifers. We argue that one of the most efficient processes in macrotidal environments is the gravity-driven downconing instability below coastal salinized rivers. 2-D numerical experiments have been used to quantify this process according to four main parameter types: (1) the groundwater system permeability, (2) the salinity degree of the river, (3) the river width and slope, and (4) the tidal amplitude. A general expression of the salinity inflow rates have been derived, which has been used to estimate groundwater salinization rates in Brittany, given the geomorphological and environmental characteristics (drainage basin area, river widths and slopes, tidal range, aquifer permeability). We found that downconing below coastal rivers entail very high saline rates, indicating that this process play a major role in the salinization of regional aquifers. This is also likely to be an issue in the context of climate change, where sea-level rise is expected.

  2. Improvements on mapping soil liquefaction at a regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jing

    Earthquake induced soil liquefaction is an important secondary hazard during earthquakes and can lead to significant damage to infrastructure. Mapping liquefaction hazard is important in both planning for earthquake events and guiding relief efforts by positioning resources once the events have occurred. This dissertation addresses two aspects of liquefaction hazard mapping at a regional scale including 1) predictive liquefaction hazard mapping and 2) post-liquefaction cataloging. First, current predictive hazard liquefaction mapping relies on detailed geologic maps and geotechnical data, which are not always available in at-risk regions. This dissertation improves the predictive liquefaction hazard mapping by the development and validation of geospatial liquefaction models (Chapter 2 and 3) that predict liquefaction extent and are appropriate for global application. The geospatial liquefaction models are developed using logistic regression from a liquefaction database consisting of the data from 27 earthquake events from six countries. The model that performs best over the entire dataset includes peak ground velocity (PGV), VS30, distance to river, distance to coast, and precipitation. The model that performs best over the noncoastal dataset includes PGV, VS30, water table depth, distance to water body, and precipitation. Second, post-earthquake liquefaction cataloging historically relies on field investigation that is often limited by time and expense, and therefore results in limited and incomplete liquefaction inventories. This dissertation improves the post-earthquake cataloging by the development and validation of a remote sensing-based method that can be quickly applied over a broad region after an earthquake and provide a detailed map of liquefaction surface effects (Chapter 4). Our method uses the optical satellite images before and after an earthquake event from the WorldView-2 satellite with 2 m spatial resolution and eight spectral bands. Our method

  3. High-resolution, regional-scale crop yield simulations for the Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stack, D. H.; Kafatos, M.; Medvigy, D.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Prasad, A. K.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.; Asrar, G. R.

    2012-12-01

    Over the past few decades, there have been many process-based crop models developed with the goal of better understanding the impacts of climate, soils, and management decisions on crop yields. These models simulate the growth and development of crops in response to environmental drivers. Traditionally, process-based crop models have been run at the individual farm level for yield optimization and management scenario testing. Few previous studies have used these models over broader geographic regions, largely due to the lack of gridded high-resolution meteorological and soil datasets required as inputs for these data intensive process-based models. In particular, assessment of regional-scale yield variability due to climate change requires high-resolution, regional-scale, climate projections, and such projections have been unavailable until recently. The goal of this study was to create a framework for extending the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop model for use at regional scales and analyze spatial and temporal yield changes in the Southwestern United States (CA, AZ, and NV). Using the scripting language Python, an automated pipeline was developed to link Regional Climate Model (RCM) output with the APSIM crop model, thus creating a one-way nested modeling framework. This framework was used to combine climate, soil, land use, and agricultural management datasets in order to better understand the relationship between climate variability and crop yield at the regional-scale. Three different RCMs were used to drive APSIM: OLAM, RAMS, and WRF. Preliminary results suggest that, depending on the model inputs, there is some variability between simulated RCM driven maize yields and historical yields obtained from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Furthermore, these simulations showed strong non-linear correlations between yield and meteorological drivers, with critical threshold values for some of the inputs (e.g. minimum and

  4. Using GPS and GRACE data to assess Solid Earth elastic parameters at regional scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Borghi, A.; Aoudia, A.

    2012-01-01

    We propose a way to combine GPS and GRACE data for regional scale cross check and validation especially of the most commonly used PREM (Preliminary Earth Reference Model). In form of h and k Love numbers, global PREM is very often used to simulate elastic rebound due to present-day ice mass loss......, to derive the mass distribution produced by the observed GRACE time series, and it is also used for atmospheric loading correction both in GPS and in GRACE dealiasing products. GRACE data provide load estimates, usually given as water equivalent mass distribution, from which one derives the Earth elastic...... response, by convolution with suitable elastic green functions, relying on selected Earth model and related layering and elastic parameters. We calculate at regional scale the time series of monthly uplift associated with the mass redistribution observed by GRACE implementing the high resolution technique...

  5. Quantifying uncertainty due to internal variability using high-resolution regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutmann, E. D.; Ikeda, K.; Deser, C.; Rasmussen, R.; Clark, M. P.; Arnold, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    The uncertainty in future climate predictions is as large or larger than the mean climate change signal. As such, any predictions of future climate need to incorporate and quantify the sources of this uncertainty. One of the largest sources comes from the internal, chaotic, variability within the climate system itself. This variability has been approximated using the 30 ensemble members of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble. Here we examine the wet and dry end members of this ensemble for cool-season precipitation in the Colorado Rocky Mountains with a set of high-resolution regional climate model simulations. We have used the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to simulate the periods 1990-2000, 2025-2035, and 2070-2080 on a 4km grid. These simulations show that the broad patterns of change depicted in CESM are inherited by the high-resolution simulations; however, the differences in the height and location of the mountains in the WRF simulation, relative to the CESM simulation, means that the location and magnitude of the precipitation changes are very different. We further show that high-resolution simulations with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research model (ICAR) predict a similar spatial pattern in the change signal as WRF for these ensemble members. We then use ICAR to examine the rest of the CESM Large Ensemble as well as the uncertainty in the regional climate model due to the choice of physics parameterizations.

  6. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis COSMO-REA2: Improving the representation of precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Wahl

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric reanalyses are a state-of-the-art tool to generate consistent and realistic state estimates of the atmospheric system. They provide a synthesis of various heterogeneous observational systems and model simulations using a physical model together with a data assimilation scheme. Current reanalyses are mainly global, while regional reanalyses are emerging for North America, the polar region, and most recently for Europe. However, deep convection is still parameterized even in the regional reanalyses. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis system for Central Europe (COSMO-REA2 has been developed by the Hans-Ertel Center for Weather Research – Climate Monitoring Branch. The system is based on the COSMO model and uses observational nudging for regional data assimilation. In addition to conventional observations, radar-derived rain rates are assimilated using latent heat nudging. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2 km, the model runs without parameterization of deep moist convection. COSMO-REA2 produces horizontal wind fields that represent a realistic energy spectrum for horizontal scales above 14 km. COSMO-REA2 is currently available for seven years from 2007 to 2013.This study illustrates the improved representation of local precipitation over Germany by the convective-scale reanalysis COSMO-REA2 compared to coarser gridded European and global reanalyses. A systematic verification using rain gauge data reveals the added value of high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalyses on different time scales. On monthly to annual time scales, regional reanalyses yield better estimates of the spatial variability of precipitation patterns which can not be provided by coarser gridded global models. On hourly to daily time scales, the convective-scale reanalysis substantially improves the representation of local precipitation in two ways. On the one hand, COSMO-REA2 shows an enhanced representation of observed frequencies of local

  7. Infant mortality due to perinatal causes in Brazil: trends, regional patterns and possible interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Gomes Victora

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: Brazilian infant and child mortality levels are not compatible with the country's economic potential. In this paper, we provide a description of levels and trends in infant mortality due to perinatal causes and malformations and assess the likely impact of changing intermediate-level determinants, many of which are amenable to direct interventions through the health or related sectors. TYPE OF STUDY: Review paper. METHODS: Two main sources of mortality data were used: indirect mortality estimates based on censuses and surveys, and rates based on registered deaths. The latter were corrected for under-registration. Combination of the two sources of data allowed the estimation of cause-specific mortality rates. Data on current coverage of preventive and curative interventions were mostly obtained from the 1996 Demographic and Health Survey. Other national household surveys and Ministry of Health Statistics were also used. A thorough review of the Brazilian literature on levels, trends and determinants of infant mortality led to the identification of a large number of papers and books. These provided the background for the analyses of risk factors and potential interventions. RESULTS: The indirect infant mortality rate estimate for 1995-97 is of 37.5 deaths per thousand live births, about six times higher than in the lowest mortality countries in the world. Perinatal causes account for 57% of all infant deaths, and congenital malformations are responsible for 11.2% of these deaths. Mortality levels are highest in the Northeast and North, and lowest in the South and Southeast; the Center-West falls in between. Since surveys of the North region do not cover rural areas, mortality for this region may be underestimated. CONCLUSIONS: A first priority for the further reduction in infant mortality in Brazil is to improve equality among regions, since the North and Northeast, and particularly rural areas, still show very high death rates. Further

  8. Regional Scaling of Airborne Eddy Covariance Flux Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachs, T.; Serafimovich, A.; Metzger, S.; Kohnert, K.; Hartmann, J.

    2014-12-01

    The earth's surface is tightly coupled to the global climate system by the vertical exchange of energy and matter. Thus, to better understand and potentially predict changes to our climate system, it is critical to quantify the surface-atmosphere exchange of heat, water vapor, and greenhouse gases on climate-relevant spatial and temporal scales. Currently, most flux observations consist of ground-based, continuous but local measurements. These provide a good basis for temporal integration, but may not be representative of the larger regional context. This is particularly true for the Arctic, where site selection is additionally bound by logistical constraints, among others. Airborne measurements can overcome this limitation by covering distances of hundreds of kilometers over time periods of a few hours. The Airborne Measurements of Methane Fluxes (AIRMETH) campaigns are designed to quantitatively and spatially explicitly address this issue: The research aircraft POLAR 5 is used to acquire thousands of kilometers of eddy-covariance flux data. During the AIRMETH-2012 and AIRMETH-2013 campaigns we measured the turbulent exchange of energy, methane, and (in 2013) carbon dioxide over the North Slope of Alaska, USA, and the Mackenzie Delta, Canada. Here, we present the potential of environmental response functions (ERFs) for quantitatively linking flux observations to meteorological and biophysical drivers in the flux footprints. We use wavelet transforms of the original high-frequency data to improve spatial discretization of the flux observations. This also enables the quantification of continuous and biophysically relevant land cover properties in the flux footprint of each observation. A machine learning technique is then employed to extract and quantify the functional relationships between flux observations and the meteorological and biophysical drivers. The resulting ERFs are used to extrapolate fluxes over spatio-temporally explicit grids of the study area. The

  9. A study on the flow field and local heat transfer performance due to geometric scaling of centrifugal fans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stafford, Jason, E-mail: jason.stafford@ul.ie [Stokes Institute, Mechanical, Aeronautical and Biomedical Engineering Department, University of Limerick, Limerick (Ireland); Walsh, Ed; Egan, Vanessa [Stokes Institute, Mechanical, Aeronautical and Biomedical Engineering Department, University of Limerick, Limerick (Ireland)

    2011-12-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Velocity field and local heat transfer trends of centrifugal fans. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Time-averaged vortices are generated by flow separation. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Local vortex and impingement regions are evident on surface heat transfer maps. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Miniature centrifugal fans should be designed with an aspect ratio below 0.3. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Theory under predicts heat transfer due to complex, unsteady outlet flow. - Abstract: Scaled versions of fan designs are often chosen to address thermal management issues in space constrained applications. Using velocity field and local heat transfer measurement techniques, the thermal performance characteristics of a range of geometrically scaled centrifugal fan designs have been investigated. Complex fluid flow structures and surface heat transfer trends due to centrifugal fans were found to be common over a wide range of fan aspect ratios (blade height to fan diameter). The limiting aspect ratio for heat transfer enhancement was 0.3, as larger aspect ratios were shown to result in a reduction in overall thermal performance. Over the range of fans examined, the low profile centrifugal designs produced significant enhancement in thermal performance when compared to that predicted using classical laminar flow theory. The limiting non-dimensional distance from the fan, where this enhancement is no longer apparent, has also been determined. Using the fundamental information inferred from local velocity field and heat transfer measurements, selection criteria can be determined for both low and high power practical applications where space restrictions exist.

  10. Regional-to-site scale groundwater flow in Romuvaara

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kattilakoski, E.; Koskinen, L. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1999-04-01

    The work describing numerical groundwater flow modelling at the Romuvaara site serves as a background report for the safety assessment TILA-99. The site scale can roughly be taken as the scale of detailed borehole investigations, which have probed the bedrock of Romuvaara over about 2 km{sup 2} large and 1 km deep volume. The site model in this work covers an area of about 12 km{sup 2}. The depth of the model is 2200 m. The site scale flow modelling produced characteristics of the deep groundwater flow and evaluated the impact of a spent fuel repository on the natural groundwater flow conditions. It treated the hydraulic gradient in the intact rock between the repository and the fracture zone nearest to it (about 50 m off) for the block scale model, which describes the groundwater flow on the repository scale. The result quantities were the hydraulic head h (as the base quantity) and its gradient in selected cross sections and fracture zones, the flow rates around the repository, flow paths and discharge areas of the water from the repository. Two repository layouts were discussed. The numerical simulations were performed with the FEFTRA code based on the porous medium concept and the finite element method. The regional model with a no-flow boundary condition at the bottom and on the lateral edges was firstly used to confirm the hydraulic head boundary condition on the lateral edges of an interior site model (having a no-flow boundary condition at the bottom). The groundwater table was used as the hydraulic head boundary condition at the surface of each model. Both the conductivity of the bedrock (modeled with three-dimensional elements) and the transmissivities of the fracture zones (described with two-dimensional elements in the three-dimensional mesh) decreased as a function of the depth. All the results were derived from the site model. The range of variation of the hydraulic gradient immediately outside the repository was studied in the direction of the flow

  11. Mortality due to Cardiovascular Diseases in Women and Men in the Five Brazilian Regions, 1980-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio de Padua Mansur

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Studies have shown different mortalities due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD, ischemic heart disease (IHD and cerebrovascular diseases (CbVD in the five Brazilian regions. Socioeconomic conditions of those regions are frequently used to justify differences in mortality due to those diseases. In addition, studies have shown a reduction in the differences between the mortality rates of the five Brazilian regions. Objective: To update CVD mortality data in women and men in the five Brazilian regions. Methods: Mortality and population data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and Ministry of Health. Risk of death was adjusted by use of the direct method, with the 2000 world standard population as reference. We analyzed trends in mortality due to CVD, IHD and CbVD in women and men aged ≥ 30 years in the five Brazilian regions from 1980 to 2012. Results: Mortality due to: 1 CVD: showed reduction in the Northern, West-Central, Southern and Southeastern regions; increase in the Northeastern region; 2 IHD: reduction in the Southeastern and Southern regions; increase in the Northeastern region; and unchanged in the Northern and West-Central regions; 3 CbVD: reduction in the Southern, Southeastern and West-Central regions; increase in the Northeastern region; and unchanged in Northern region. There was also a convergence in mortality trends due to CVD, IHD, and CbVD in the five regions. Conclusion: The West-Central, Northern and Northeastern regions had the worst trends in CVD mortality as compared to the Southeastern and Southern regions. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2016; [online].ahead print, PP.0-0

  12. Aerosol-cloud interactions from urban, regional to global scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yuan [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States). Seismological Lab.

    2015-10-01

    The studies in this dissertation aim at advancing our scientific understandings about physical processes involved in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction and quantitatively assessing the impacts of aerosols on the cloud systems with diverse scales over the globe on the basis of the observational data analysis and various modeling studies. As recognized in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change, the magnitude of radiative forcing by atmospheric aerosols is highly uncertain, representing the largest uncertainty in projections of future climate by anthropogenic activities. By using a newly implemented cloud microphysical scheme in the cloud-resolving model, the thesis assesses aerosol-cloud interaction for distinct weather systems, ranging from individual cumulus to mesoscale convective systems. This thesis also introduces a novel hierarchical modeling approach that solves a long outstanding mismatch between simulations by regional weather models and global climate models in the climate modeling community. More importantly, the thesis provides key scientific solutions to several challenging questions in climate science, including the global impacts of the Asian pollution. As scientists wrestle with the complexities of climate change in response to varied anthropogenic forcing, perhaps no problem is more challenging than the understanding of the impacts of atmospheric aerosols from air pollution on clouds and the global circulation.

  13. A regional-scale Ocean Health Index for Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfes, Cristiane T; Longo, Catherine; Halpern, Benjamin S; Hardy, Darren; Scarborough, Courtney; Best, Benjamin D; Pinheiro, Tiago; Dutra, Guilherme F

    2014-01-01

    Brazil has one of the largest and fastest growing economies and one of the largest coastlines in the world, making human use and enjoyment of coastal and marine resources of fundamental importance to the country. Integrated assessments of ocean health are needed to understand the condition of a range of benefits that humans derive from marine systems and to evaluate where attention should be focused to improve the health of these systems. Here we describe the first such assessment for Brazil at both national and state levels. We applied the Ocean Health Index framework, which evaluates ten public goals for healthy oceans. Despite refinements of input data and model formulations, the national score of 60 (out of 100) was highly congruent with the previous global assessment for Brazil of 62. Variability in scores among coastal states was most striking for goals related to mariculture, protected areas, tourism, and clean waters. Extractive goals, including Food Provision, received low scores relative to habitat-related goals, such as Biodiversity. This study demonstrates the applicability of the Ocean Health Index at a regional scale, and its usefulness in highlighting existing data and knowledge gaps and identifying key policy and management recommendations. To improve Brazil's ocean health, this study suggests that future actions should focus on: enhancing fisheries management, expanding marine protected areas, and monitoring coastal habitats.

  14. Aerosol-cloud interactions from urban, regional to global scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Yuan

    2015-01-01

    The studies in this dissertation aim at advancing our scientific understandings about physical processes involved in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction and quantitatively assessing the impacts of aerosols on the cloud systems with diverse scales over the globe on the basis of the observational data analysis and various modeling studies. As recognized in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change, the magnitude of radiative forcing by atmospheric aerosols is highly uncertain, representing the largest uncertainty in projections of future climate by anthropogenic activities. By using a newly implemented cloud microphysical scheme in the cloud-resolving model, the thesis assesses aerosol-cloud interaction for distinct weather systems, ranging from individual cumulus to mesoscale convective systems. This thesis also introduces a novel hierarchical modeling approach that solves a long outstanding mismatch between simulations by regional weather models and global climate models in the climate modeling community. More importantly, the thesis provides key scientific solutions to several challenging questions in climate science, including the global impacts of the Asian pollution. As scientists wrestle with the complexities of climate change in response to varied anthropogenic forcing, perhaps no problem is more challenging than the understanding of the impacts of atmospheric aerosols from air pollution on clouds and the global circulation.

  15. Invasive lionfish reduce native fish abundance on a regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballew, Nicholas G.; Bacheler, Nathan M.; Kellison, G. Todd; Schueller, Amy M.

    2016-08-01

    Invasive lionfish pose an unprecedented threat to biodiversity and fisheries throughout Atlantic waters off of the southeastern United States, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico. Here, we employ a spatially replicated Before-After-Control-Impact analysis with temporal pairing to quantify for the first time the impact of the lionfish invasion on native fish abundance across a broad regional scale and over the entire duration of the lionfish invasion (1990-2014). Our results suggest that 1) lionfish-impacted areas off of the southeastern United States are most prevalent off-shore near the continental shelf-break but are also common near-shore and 2) in impacted areas, lionfish have reduced tomtate (a native forage fish) abundance by 45% since the invasion began. Tomtate served as a model native fish species in our analysis, and as such, it is likely that the lionfish invasion has had similar impacts on other species, some of which may be of economic importance. Barring the development of a control strategy that reverses the lionfish invasion, the abundance of lionfish in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico will likely remain at or above current levels. Consequently, the effect of lionfish on native fish abundance will likely continue for the foreseeable future.

  16. Regional-to-site scale groundwater flow in Kivetty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kattilakoski, E. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Meszaros, F. [The Relief Laboratory, Harskut (Hungary)

    1999-04-01

    The work describing numerical groundwater flow modelling at the Kivetty site serves as a background report for the safety assessment TILA-99. The site scale can roughly be taken as the scale of detailed borehole investigations, which have probed the bedrock of Kivetty over about 3 km{sup 2} large and 1 km deep volume. The site model in this work covers an area of about 16 km{sup 2}. The depth of the model is 2000 m. The site scale flow modelling produced characteristics of the deep groundwater flow both under the natural conditions and in the case of a spent fuel repository. The hydraulic gradient in the intact rock between the repository and the fracture zone nearest to it (about 50 m off) was assessed for the block scale model. The result quantities were the hydraulic head h (as the base quantity) and its gradient in selected cross sections and fracture zones, the flow rates around the repository, flow paths and discharge areas of the water from the repository. Two repository layouts were discussed. The numerical simulations were performed with the FEFTRA code based on the porous medium concept and the finite element method. The regional model with a no-flow boundary condition at the bottom and on the lateral edges was firstly used to confirm the hydraulic head boundary condition on the lateral edges of an interior site model (having a no-flow boundary condition at the bottom). The groundwater table was used as the hydraulic head boundary condition at the surface of each model. Both the conductivity of the bedrock (modeled with three-dimensional elements) and the transmissivities of the fracture zones (described with two-dimensional elements in the three-dimensional mesh) decreased as a function of the depth. All the results were derived from the site model. With the exception of the western part of Repository A the outlined repositories are located underneath Kumpuvuori, where the flow has a significant subvertical component. The horizontal component of the deep

  17. Regional-to-site scale groundwater flow in Kivetty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kattilakoski, E.; Meszaros, F.

    1999-04-01

    The work describing numerical groundwater flow modelling at the Kivetty site serves as a background report for the safety assessment TILA-99. The site scale can roughly be taken as the scale of detailed borehole investigations, which have probed the bedrock of Kivetty over about 3 km 2 large and 1 km deep volume. The site model in this work covers an area of about 16 km 2 . The depth of the model is 2000 m. The site scale flow modelling produced characteristics of the deep groundwater flow both under the natural conditions and in the case of a spent fuel repository. The hydraulic gradient in the intact rock between the repository and the fracture zone nearest to it (about 50 m off) was assessed for the block scale model. The result quantities were the hydraulic head h (as the base quantity) and its gradient in selected cross sections and fracture zones, the flow rates around the repository, flow paths and discharge areas of the water from the repository. Two repository layouts were discussed. The numerical simulations were performed with the FEFTRA code based on the porous medium concept and the finite element method. The regional model with a no-flow boundary condition at the bottom and on the lateral edges was firstly used to confirm the hydraulic head boundary condition on the lateral edges of an interior site model (having a no-flow boundary condition at the bottom). The groundwater table was used as the hydraulic head boundary condition at the surface of each model. Both the conductivity of the bedrock (modeled with three-dimensional elements) and the transmissivities of the fracture zones (described with two-dimensional elements in the three-dimensional mesh) decreased as a function of the depth. All the results were derived from the site model. With the exception of the western part of Repository A the outlined repositories are located underneath Kumpuvuori, where the flow has a significant subvertical component. The horizontal component of the deep

  18. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-01-01

    for mega-earthquakes of M9.0+. The monitoring at regional scales may require application of a recently proposed scheme for the spatial stabilization of the intermediate-term middle-range predictions. The scheme guarantees a more objective and reliable diagnosis of times of increased probability and is less restrictive to input seismic data. It makes feasible reestablishment of seismic monitoring aimed at prediction of large magnitude earthquakes in Caucasus and Central Asia, which to our regret, has been discontinued in 1991. The first results of the monitoring (1986-1990) were encouraging, at least for M6.5+

  19. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-03-01

    for mega-earthquakes of M9.0+. The monitoring at regional scales may require application of a recently proposed scheme for the spatial stabilization of the intermediate-term middle-range predictions. The scheme guarantees a more objective and reliable diagnosis of times of increased probability and is less restrictive to input seismic data. It makes feasible reestablishment of seismic monitoring aimed at prediction of large magnitude earthquakes in Caucasus and Central Asia, which to our regret, has been discontinued in 1991. The first results of the monitoring (1986-1990) were encouraging, at least for M6.5+.

  20. Beam dynamics of the interaction region solenoid in a linear collider due to a crossing angle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Tenenbaum

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Future linear colliders may require a nonzero crossing angle between the two beams at the interaction point (IP. This requirement in turn implies that the beams will pass through the strong interaction region solenoid with an angle, and thus that the component of the solenoidal field perpendicular to the beam trajectory is nonzero. The interaction of the beam and the solenoidal field in the presence of a crossing angle will cause optical effects not observed for beams passing through the solenoid on axis; these effects include dispersion, deflection of the beam, and synchrotron radiation effects. For a purely solenoidal field, the optical effects which are relevant to luminosity exactly cancel at the IP when the influence of the solenoid’s fringe field is taken into account. Beam size growth due to synchrotron radiation in the solenoid is proportional to the fifth power of the product of the solenoidal field, the length of the solenoid, and the crossing angle. Examples based on proposed linear collider detector solenoid configurations are presented.

  1. Mercury Pollution Due to Small-Scale Gold Mining in the Philippines: An Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Orbeta, Aniceto C.; Israel, Danilo C.; Asirot, Jasminda

    2000-01-01

    The study reviews small-scale gold mining in the Philippines and economically assesses mercury pollution and other development problems in the industry. The end purpose is to suggest measures to address the problems and promote better environmental and overall management of small-scale mining. The study has used secondary data from mining institutions and primary data from key informants and small-scale gold miners and processors in the two case study sites.

  2. Mercury Pollution Due to Small-Scale Gold Mining in the Philippines: An Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Israel, Danilo C.; Asirot, Jasminda

    2002-01-01

    The study reviews small-scale gold mining in the Philippines and economically assesses mercury pollution and other development problems in the industry. The end purpose is to suggest measures to address the problems and promote better environmental and overall management of small-scale mining. The study has used secondary data from mining institutions and primary data from key informants and small-scale gold miners and processors in the two case study sites. brazzer

  3. Trends in the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in five Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria de Fátima Marinho de Souza

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.

  4. Investigations of surface-tension effects due to small-scale complex boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jiansheng

    In this Ph.D. dissertation, we have investigated some important surface-tension phenomena including capillarity, wetting, and wicking. We mainly focus on the geometric aspects of these problems, and to learn about how structures affect properties. . In the first project (Chapter 2), we used numerical simulations and experiments to study the meniscus of a fluid confined in capillaries with complicated cross-sectional geometries. In the simulations, we computed the three-dimensional shapes of the menisci formed in polygonal and star-shaped capillaries with sharp or rounded corners. Height variations across the menisci were used to quantify the effect of surface tension. Analytical solutions were derived for all the cases where the cross-sectional geometry was a regular polygon or a regular star-shape. Power indices that characterize the effects of corner rounding were extracted from simulation results. These findings can serve as guide for fabrications of unconventional three-dimensional structures in Capillary Force Lithography experiments. Experimental demonstrations of the working principle was also performed. Although quantitative matching between simulation and experimental results was not achieved due to the limitation of material properties, clear qualitative trends were observed and interesting three-dimensional nano-structures were produced. A second project (Chapter 3) focused on developing techniques to produce three-dimensional hierarchically structured superhydrophobic surfaces with high aspect ratios. We experimented with two different high-throughput electron-beam-lithography processes featuring single and dual electron-beam exposures. After a surface modification procedure with a hydrophobic silane, the structured surfaces exhibited two distinct superhydrophobic behaviors---high and low adhesion. While both types of superhydrophobic surfaces exhibited very high (approximately 160° water advancing contact angles, the water receding contact angles on

  5. Instanton scale cutoff due to the introduction of link constraints in the functional integral

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bachas, C.P.

    1981-01-01

    We compute the contribution of instantons of fixed scale rho to the Wilson loop of a square (plaquette) of size a, and compare the result to its asymptotic forms in the large- and small-a/rho limits. We deduce that the scale cutoff of instantons renormalizing the coupling of an effective lattice theory lies between 2a/3 and a

  6. Scaling-up watershed discharge and sediment concentrations to regional scale: The Blue Nile Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenhuis, T. S.; Tilahun, S. A.; MacAlister, C.; Ayana, E. K.; Tebebu, T. Y.; Bayabil, H. K.; Zegeye, A. D.; Worqlul, A. W.

    2012-12-01

    Since Hewlet and Hibbert's publication there is recognition that saturated excess overland land flow is one of the main runoff mechanisms in vegetated watersheds. Predicting discharge in these watersheds can be accomplished by use of simplified models where the landscape features are grouped in potentially runoff contributing zones and permeable hillsides where the water infiltrates (and become the source of interflow and base flow). In this way each watershed can be described with nine parameters: fractional area and available water content for each of the three zones and three parameters describing subsurface flow. The information parameter values can be derived directly from the outflow hydrograph. We show that this model performs well for discharge and sediment concentration (with three additional parameters) on a 1 to 10 day time scale in the Blue Nile Basin for watersheds ranging in in size from 100 ha to 170,000 km2. Thus scaling up from watershed to regional scale can be accomplished with nine parameters for the hydrology and three additional parameters for sediment concentrations. Our hypothesis, that the model works so well, is that after the watershed wets up it drains to a characteristic moisture content distribution that is invariant in time. Wetting up is similar each time and is as a function of effective rainfall. This gives rise to a unique relationship between total storm runoff and total precipitation and surprisingly can be described by a modified form of the well-known SCS runoff equation. This approach has a direct parallel with Darcy's law in that although the average flow over several pores is described well, flow in individual pores cannot predicted. In our case the discharge can be simulated by averaging over the different runoff source area and permeable hillside in the watersheds, but processes within the zones cannot be described. This is not to say that information within the various zones cannot be simulated, but will require detailed

  7. Geographical Pattern and Environmental Correlates of Regional-Scale General Flowering in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Numata, Shinya; Yasuda, Masatoshi; Suzuki, Ryo O.; Hosaka, Tetsuro; Noor, Nur Supardi Md.; Fletcher, Christine D.; Hashim, Mazlan

    2013-01-01

    In South-East Asian dipterocarp forests, many trees synchronize their reproduction at the community level, but irregularly, in a phenomenon known as general flowering (GF). Several proximate cues have been proposed as triggers for the synchronization of Southeast Asian GF, but the debate continues, as many studies have not considered geographical variation in climate and flora. We hypothesized that the spatial pattern of GF forests is explained by previously proposed climatic cues if there are common cues for GF among regions. During the study, GF episodes occurred every year, but the spatial occurrence varied considerably from just a few forests to the whole of Peninsular Malaysia. In 2001, 2002 and 2005, minor and major GF occurred widely throughout Peninsular Malaysia (GF2001, GF2002, and GF2005), and the geographical patterns of GF varied between the episodes. In the three regional-scale GF episodes, most major events occurred in regions where prolonged drought (PD) had been recorded prior, and significant associations between GF scores and PD were found in GF2001 and GF2002. However, the frequency of PD was higher than that of GF throughout the peninsula. In contrast, low temperature (LT) was observed during the study period only before GF2002 and GF2005, but there was no clear spatial relationship between GF and LT in the regional-scale episodes. There was also no evidence that last GF condition influenced the magnitude of GF. Thus, our results suggest that PD would be essential to trigger regional-scale GF in the peninsula, but also that PD does not fully explain the spatial and temporal patterns of GF. The coarse relationships between GF and the proposed climatic cues may be due to the geographical variation in proximate cues for GF, and the climatic and floristic geographical variations should be considered to understand the proximate factors of GF. PMID:24260159

  8. Wind and Photovoltaic Large-Scale Regional Models for hourly production evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinelli, Mattia; Maule, Petr; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2015-01-01

    This work presents two large-scale regional models used for the evaluation of normalized power output from wind turbines and photovoltaic power plants on a European regional scale. The models give an estimate of renewable production on a regional scale with 1 h resolution, starting from a mesosca...... of the transmission system, especially regarding the cross-border power flows. The tuning of these regional models is done using historical meteorological data acquired on a per-country basis and using publicly available data of installed capacity.......This work presents two large-scale regional models used for the evaluation of normalized power output from wind turbines and photovoltaic power plants on a European regional scale. The models give an estimate of renewable production on a regional scale with 1 h resolution, starting from a mesoscale...

  9. Canary in the coal mine: Historical oxygen decline in the Gulf of St. Lawrence due to large scale climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claret, M.; Galbraith, E. D.; Palter, J. B.; Gilbert, D.; Bianchi, D.; Dunne, J. P.

    2016-02-01

    The regional signature of anthropogenic climate change on the atmosphere and upper ocean is often difficult to discern from observational timeseries, dominated as they are by decadal climate variability. Here we argue that a long-term decline of dissolved oxygen concentrations observed in the Gulf of S. Lawrence (GoSL) is consistent with anthropogenic climate change. Oxygen concentrations in the GoSL have declined markedly since 1930 due primarily to an increase of oxygen-poor North Atlantic Central Waters relative to Labrador Current Waters (Gilbert et al. 2005). We compare these observations to a climate warming simulation using a very high-resolution global coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model. The numerical model (CM2.6), developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, is strongly eddying and includes a biogeochemical module with dissolved oxygen. The warming scenario shows that oxygen in the GoSL decreases and it is associated to changes in western boundary currents and wind patterns in the North Atlantic. We speculate that the large-scale changes behind the simulated decrease in GoSL oxygen have also been at play in the real world over the past century, although they are difficult to resolve in noisy atmospheric data.

  10. A regional-scale assessment of local renewable energy resources in Cumbria, UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gormally, A.M.; Whyatt, J.D.; Timmis, R.J.; Pooley, C.G.

    2012-01-01

    There is increasing focus on the role small-scale decentralised renewable energy developments could play in helping the UK meet its target of over 15% renewable energy by the year 2020 and alter energy behaviours through active community engagement. Upland areas are considered key areas where such community-based developments could occur due to their natural resources and range of community scales. This study uses GIS-based techniques to develop a methodology that assesses the regional-scale potential for community-based renewable electricity across Cumbria and whether a combination of these developments at the community-scale could make a significant contribution to local electricity consumption. This methodology looks at a range of technologies including hydro-power, wind-power, solar PV and bioenergy. The results suggest there is ample resource available for small communities by combining a mix of localised renewable electricity developments, which is highlighted through energy scenarios for a selected community. Further work will investigate whether this potential can be realised in reality by looking at resource resilience and community-level acceptability. - Highlights: ► A mix of wind, solar, bioenergy and hydro-power options are presented for Cumbria, UK. ► High resolution spatial analysis is conducted focussing on localised developments. ► Locations with sufficient renewable electricity potential were identified. ► Renewable options are explored further through a town case study. ► Scenarios consider different scales, mixes and contributions to local energy demand.

  11. Scaling of the Coulomb Energy Due to Quantum Fluctuations in the Charge on a Quantum Dot

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molenkamp, L. W; Flensberg, Karsten; Kemerink, M.

    1995-01-01

    The charging energy of a quantum dot is measured through the effect of its potential on the conductance of a second dot. This technique allows a measurement of the scaling of the dot's charging energy with the conductance of the tunnel barriers leading to the dot. We find that the charging energy...... scales quadratically with the reflection probability of the barriers. The observed power law agrees with a recent theory....

  12. When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Bergerot

    Full Text Available Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known.And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales.In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

  13. When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergerot, Benjamin; Hugueny, Bernard; Belliard, Jérôme

    2013-01-01

    Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known. And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales. In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

  14. Development of regional scale soil erosion and sediment transport model; its calibration and validations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehman, M.H.; Akhtar, M.N.

    2005-01-01

    Despite of the fact that many soil erosion models have been developed in the past more than 5 decades including empirical based models like USLE and RUSLE and many process based soil erosion and sediment transport models like WEPP, EUROSEM and SHETRAN, the application of these models to regional scales remained questionable. To address the problem, a process-based soil erosion and sediment transport model has been developed to estimate the soil erosion, deposition, transport and sediment yield at regional scale. The soil erosion processes are modeled as the detachment of soil by the raindrop impact over the entire grid and detachment of soil due to overland flow only within the equivalent channels, whereas sediment is routed to the forward grid considering the transport capacity of the flow. The loss of heterogeneity in the spatial information of the topography due to slope averaging effect is reproduced by adapting a Fractal analysis approach. The model has been calibrated for Nan river basin (N.13A) and validated to the Yom river basin (Y.6) and Nam Mae Klang river basin (P.24A) of Thailand, simulated results show good agreements with the observed sediment discharge data. The developed model with few new components can also be applied for predicting the sediment discharges of the river Indus. (author)

  15. Length-scale effect due to periodic variation of geometrically necessary dislocation densities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oztop, M. S.; Niordson, Christian Frithiof; Kysar, J. W.

    2013-01-01

    Strain gradient plasticity theories have been successful in predicting qualitative aspects of the length scale effect, most notably the increase in yield strength and hardness as the size of the deforming volume decreases. However new experimental methodologies enabled by recent developments...... of high spatial resolution diffraction methods in a scanning electron microscope give a much more quantitative understanding of plastic deformation at small length scales. Specifically, geometrically necessary dislocation densities (GND) can now be measured and provide detailed information about...... the microstructure of deformed metals in addition to the size effect. Recent GND measurements have revealed a distribution of length scales that evolves within a metal undergoing plastic deformation. Furthermore, these experiments have shown an accumulation of GND densities in cell walls as well as a variation...

  16. Anomalous scaling due to correlations: limit theorems and self-similar processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stella, Attilio L; Baldovin, Fulvio

    2010-01-01

    We derive theorems which outline explicit mechanisms by which anomalous scaling for the probability density function of the sum of many correlated random variables asymptotically prevails. The results characterize general anomalous scaling forms, explain their universal character, and specify universality domains in the spaces of joint probability density functions of the summand variables. These density functions are assumed to be invariant under arbitrary permutations of their arguments. Examples from the theory of critical phenomena are discussed. The novel notion of stability implied by the limit theorems also allows us to define sequences of random variables whose sum satisfies anomalous scaling for any finite number of summands. If regarded as developing in time, the stochastic processes described by these variables are non-Markovian generalizations of Gaussian processes with uncorrelated increments, and provide, e.g., explicit realizations of a recently proposed model of index evolution in finance

  17. Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    People living in Africa and South Asia's semi-arid regions face challenges that hinder their economic growth and development. This project seeks to find proactive, longer-term approaches to climate change adaptation in these vulnerable regions, while helping locals manage existing risks. Short-term focus must shift. So far ...

  18. Truncation of power law behavior in 'scale-free' network models due to information filtering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mossa, Stefano; Barthelemy, Marc; Eugene Stanley, H.; Nunes Amaral, Luis A.

    2002-01-01

    We formulate a general model for the growth of scale-free networks under filtering information conditions--that is, when the nodes can process information about only a subset of the existing nodes in the network. We find that the distribution of the number of incoming links to a node follows a universal scaling form, i.e., that it decays as a power law with an exponential truncation controlled not only by the system size but also by a feature not previously considered, the subset of the network 'accessible' to the node. We test our model with empirical data for the World Wide Web and find agreement

  19. LANDIS PRO: a landscape model that predicts forest composition and structure changes at regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Jacob S. Fraser; Frank R. Thompson; Stephen R. Shifley; Martin A. Spetich

    2014-01-01

    LANDIS PRO predicts forest composition and structure changes incorporating species-, stand-, and landscape-scales processes at regional scales. Species-scale processes include tree growth, establishment, and mortality. Stand-scale processes contain density- and size-related resource competition that regulates self-thinning and seedling establishment. Landscapescale...

  20. Meta-modeling soil organic carbon sequestration potential and its application at regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Zhongkui; Wang, Enli; Bryan, Brett A; King, Darran; Zhao, Gang; Pan, Xubin; Bende-Michl, Ulrike

    2013-03-01

    Upscaling the results from process-based soil-plant models to assess regional soil organic carbon (SOC) change and sequestration potential is a great challenge due to the lack of detailed spatial information, particularly soil properties. Meta-modeling can be used to simplify and summarize process-based models and significantly reduce the demand for input data and thus could be easily applied on regional scales. We used the pre-validated Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate the impact of climate, soil, and management on SOC at 613 reference sites across Australia's cereal-growing regions under a continuous wheat system. We then developed a simple meta-model to link the APSIM-modeled SOC change to primary drivers, i.e., the amount of recalcitrant SOC, plant available water capacity of soil, soil pH, and solar radiation, temperature, and rainfall in the growing season. Based on high-resolution soil texture data and 8165 climate data points across the study area, we used the meta-model to assess SOC sequestration potential and the uncertainty associated with the variability of soil characteristics. The meta-model explained 74% of the variation of final SOC content as simulated by APSIM. Applying the meta-model to Australia's cereal-growing regions reveals regional patterns in SOC, with higher SOC stock in cool, wet regions. Overall, the potential SOC stock ranged from 21.14 to 152.71 Mg/ha with a mean of 52.18 Mg/ha. Variation of soil properties induced uncertainty ranging from 12% to 117% with higher uncertainty in warm, wet regions. In general, soils in Australia's cereal-growing regions under continuous wheat production were simulated as a sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide with a mean sequestration potential of 8.17 Mg/ha.

  1. Land surface evapotranspiration modelling at the regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffelli, Giulia; Ferraris, Stefano; Canone, Davide; Previati, Maurizio; Gisolo, Davide; Provenzale, Antonello

    2017-04-01

    Climate change has relevant implications for the environment, water resources and human life in general. The observed increment of mean air temperature, in addition to a more frequent occurrence of extreme events such as droughts, may have a severe effect on the hydrological cycle. Besides climate change, land use changes are assumed to be another relevant component of global change in terms of impacts on terrestrial ecosystems: socio-economic changes have led to conversions between meadows and pastures and in most cases to a complete abandonment of grasslands. Water is subject to different physical processes among which evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most significant. In fact, ET plays a key role in estimating crop growth, water demand and irrigation water management, so estimating values of ET can be crucial for water resource planning, irrigation requirement and agricultural production. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the amount of evaporation that occurs when a sufficient water source is available. It can be estimated just knowing temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) and solar radiation. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is instead the real quantity of water which is consumed by soil and vegetation; it is obtained as a fraction of PET. The aim of this work was to apply a simplified hydrological model to calculate AET for the province of Turin (Italy) in order to assess the water content and estimate the groundwater recharge at a regional scale. The soil is seen as a bucket (FAO56 model, Allen et al., 1998) made of different layers, which interact with water and vegetation. The water balance is given by precipitations (both rain and snow) and dew as positive inputs, while AET, runoff and drainage represent the rate of water escaping from soil. The difference between inputs and outputs is the water stock. Model data inputs are: soil characteristics (percentage of clay, silt, sand, rocks and organic matter); soil depth; the wilting point (i.e. the

  2. Wintertime westward-traveling planetary-scale perturbations over the Euro-Atlantic region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doblas-Reyes, F.J. [Centro de Astrobiologia, INTA, Madrid (Spain); Pastor, M.A.; Casado, M.J. [Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain); Deque, M. [CNRM, Meteo-France, Toulouse (France)

    2001-07-01

    The features of the wintertime westward-traveling planetary scale perturbations over the Euro-Atlantic region are examined through the use of space-time spectral analysis applied to the 500 hPa geopotential height field. The intention is to understand the nature of these phenomena and the performance of climate models. Data from both ECMWF re-analyses and a simulation from the ARPEGE general circulation model are used. Westward-traveling planetary scale transients are found over the region as local perturbations resembling Rossby normal modes, with a maximum power over the Eastern Atlantic. The westward-traveling planetary scale transients north of 40 {sup circle} N have periods larger than 20 days. South of this latitude, wave periods are shifted to a band around 10 days, so that they can be related to subtropical transient waves. The atmospheric model used, like other models which exhibit reasonable mean climatic properties, tend to have less overall intraseasonal variability than observed. Nevertheless, the model is able to capture most of the features of the westward-traveling low-frequency transients. The differences in basic state, partially produced by scale interactions, would lead to the generation of westward-traveling waves in the model distinct from the observed. However, it is suggested that the improvement of the present model version with regard to previous model versions is due to a better simulation of the time-mean state. The reasonable simulation of the synoptic-scale variability south of 50 {sup circle} N, and thus of its barotropic forcing on the basic state, may also help to explain the realistic westward-traveling transients in the model. (orig.)

  3. Introducing Subrid-scale Cloud Feedbacks to Radiation for Regional Meteorological and Cllimate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convection systems and associated cloudiness directly influence regional and local radiation budgets, and dynamics and thermodynamics through feedbacks. However, most subgrid-scale convective parameterizations in regional weather and climate models do not consider cumulus cloud ...

  4. Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Whetton, Peter H.; Jones, Richard G.

    2001-01-01

    We analyse temperature and precipitation changes for the late decades of the 21st century (with respect to present day conditions) over 23 land regions of the world from 18 recent transient, climate change experiments with coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The analysis...... involves two different forcing scenarios and nine models, and it focuses on model agreement in the simulated regional changes for the summer and winter seasons. While to date very few conclusions have been presented on regional climatic changes, mostly limited to some broad latitudinal bands, our analysis...

  5. Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Kirchengast, G.

    2018-06-01

    Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards in a warming climate have motivated studies to link precipitation intensities to temperature. Increases exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate of 6-7%/°C-1 are seen in short-duration, convective, high-percentile rainfall at mid latitudes, but the rates of change cease or revert at regionally variable threshold temperatures due to moisture limitations. It is unclear, however, what these findings mean in term of the actual risk of extreme precipitation on a regional to local scale. When conditioning precipitation intensities on local temperatures, key influences on the scaling relationship such as from the annual cycle and regional weather patterns need better understanding. Here we analyze these influences, using sub-hourly to daily precipitation data from a dense network of 189 stations in south-eastern Austria. We find that the temperature sensitivities in the mountainous western region are lower than in the eastern lowlands. This is due to the different weather patterns that cause extreme precipitation in these regions. Sub-hourly and hourly intensities intensify at super-CC and CC-rates, respectively, up to temperatures of about 17 °C. However, we also find that, because of the regional and seasonal variability of the precipitation intensities, a smaller scaling factor can imply a larger absolute change in intensity. Our insights underline that temperature precipitation scaling requires careful interpretation of the intent and setting of the study. When this is considered, conditional scaling factors can help to better understand which influences control the intensification of rainfall with temperature on a regional scale.

  6. Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenke, A.; Hoyle, C. R.; Luo, B.; Rozanov, E.; Gröbner, J.; Maag, L.; Brönnimann, S.; Peter, T.

    2013-10-01

    Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a

  7. Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Stenke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size" against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North

  8. Economic Loss to the Brazilian Regions Due to the Doha Round Failure

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, Matheus Wemerson Gomes; Teixeira, Erly Cardoso; Gurgel, Angelo Costa

    2009-01-01

    We build a database and model to develop general equilibrium analysis of the Brazilian economy at the level of the five macro regions. The model is multiregional at global level as also at the Brazilian level. The project is coupled to the GTAP model through disaggregation of the original Brazilian input-output matrix and trade flows and follows the GTAPinGAMS structure and syntax to generate the General Equilibrium Analysis Project for the Brazilian Economy (PAEG). The regional database is t...

  9. Large-scale dynamo action due to α fluctuations in a linear shear flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, S.; Singh, Nishant K.

    2014-12-01

    We present a model of large-scale dynamo action in a shear flow that has stochastic, zero-mean fluctuations of the α parameter. This is based on a minimal extension of the Kraichnan-Moffatt model, to include a background linear shear and Galilean-invariant α-statistics. Using the first-order smoothing approximation we derive a linear integro-differential equation for the large-scale magnetic field, which is non-perturbative in the shearing rate S , and the α-correlation time τα . The white-noise case, τα = 0 , is solved exactly, and it is concluded that the necessary condition for dynamo action is identical to the Kraichnan-Moffatt model without shear; this is because white-noise does not allow for memory effects, whereas shear needs time to act. To explore memory effects we reduce the integro-differential equation to a partial differential equation, valid for slowly varying fields when τα is small but non-zero. Seeking exponential modal solutions, we solve the modal dispersion relation and obtain an explicit expression for the growth rate as a function of the six independent parameters of the problem. A non-zero τα gives rise to new physical scales, and dynamo action is completely different from the white-noise case; e.g. even weak α fluctuations can give rise to a dynamo. We argue that, at any wavenumber, both Moffatt drift and Shear always contribute to increasing the growth rate. Two examples are presented: (a) a Moffatt drift dynamo in the absence of shear and (b) a Shear dynamo in the absence of Moffatt drift.

  10. Hybridized Kibble-Zurek scaling in the driven critical dynamics across an overlapping critical region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Liang-Jun; Wang, Huai-Yu; Yin, Shuai

    2018-04-01

    The conventional Kibble-Zurek scaling describes the scaling behavior in the driven dynamics across a single critical region. In this paper, we study the driven dynamics across an overlapping critical region, in which a critical region (Region A) is overlaid by another critical region (Region B). We develop a hybridized Kibble-Zurek scaling (HKZS) to characterize the scaling behavior in the driven process. According to the HKZS, the driven dynamics in the overlapping region can be described by the critical theories for both Region A and Region B simultaneously. This results in a constraint on the scaling function in the overlapping critical region. We take the quantum Ising chain in an imaginary longitudinal field as an example. In this model, the critical region of the Yang-Lee edge singularity and the critical region of the ferromagnetic-paramagnetic phase transition overlap with each other. We numerically confirm the HKZS by simulating the driven dynamics in this overlapping critical region. The HKZSs in other models are also discussed.

  11. Scaling of transverse nuclear magnetic relaxation due to magnetic nanoparticle aggregation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Keith A.; Vassiliou, Christophoros C.; Issadore, David; Berezovsky, Jesse; Cima, Michael J.; Westervelt, R.M.

    2010-01-01

    The aggregation of superparamagnetic iron oxide (SPIO) nanoparticles decreases the transverse nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) relaxation time T 2 CP of adjacent water molecules measured by a Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill (CPMG) pulse-echo sequence. This effect is commonly used to measure the concentrations of a variety of small molecules. We perform extensive Monte Carlo simulations of water diffusing around SPIO nanoparticle aggregates to determine the relationship between T 2 CP and details of the aggregate. We find that in the motional averaging regime T 2 CP scales as a power law with the number N of nanoparticles in an aggregate. The specific scaling is dependent on the fractal dimension d of the aggregates. We find T 2 CP ∝Ν -0.44 for aggregates with d=2.2, a value typical of diffusion limited aggregation. We also find that in two-nanoparticle systems, T 2 CP is strongly dependent on the orientation of the two nanoparticles relative to the external magnetic field, which implies that it may be possible to sense the orientation of a two-nanoparticle aggregate. To optimize the sensitivity of SPIO nanoparticle sensors, we propose that it is best to have aggregates with few nanoparticles, close together, measured with long pulse-echo times.

  12. Monitoring and Modeling Water and Energy Fluxes in North China Plain: From Field to Regional Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Y.

    2012-12-01

    North China Plain is one of the mostly water deficit region in the world. Even though the total water withdrawal from surface and groundwater exceeded its renewable ability for long years, due to its importance to balance the food budget in China, large amount of groundwater is still extracted every year for intensive irrigation. With winter wheat and summer maize double-cropping system, the grain yield of NCP can reach a very high level of around 15 t/ha annually, which is largely depended on timely irrigation. As a result, the ceaseless over exploitation of groundwater caused serious environmental and ecological problems, e.g. nearly all the rivers run drying-up at plain areas, groundwater declined, land subsidence, and wetland shrank. The decrease in precipitation over past half century reinforced the water shortage in NCP. The sustainability of both the water resources and agriculture became the most important issue in this region. A key issue to the sustainable use of water resources is to improve the water use efficiency and reduce agricultural water consumptions. This study will introduce the efforts we put to clarify the water and heat balances in irrigated agricultural lands and its implications to crop yield, hydrology, and water resources evolution in NCP. We established a multi-scale observation system in NCP to study the surface water and heat processes and agricultural aspect of hydrological cycle in past years. Multi-disciplinary methods are adopted into this research such as micro-meteorologic, isotopic, soil hydrologic methods at the field scale, and remote sensing and modeling for study the water fluxes over regional scale. Detailed research activities and interesting as well as some initial results will be introduced at the workshop.

  13. Modelling assessment of regional groundwater contamination due to historic smelter emissions of heavy metals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grift, B. van der; Griffioen, J.

    2008-01-01

    Historic emissions from ore smelters typically cause regional soil contamination. We developed a modelling approach to assess the impact of such contamination on groundwater and surface water load, coupling unsaturated zone leaching modelling with 3D groundwater transport modelling. Both historic

  14. Incidence and impact: The regional variation of poverty effects due to fossil fuel subsidy reform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rentschler, Jun

    2016-01-01

    Since fossil fuel subsidy reforms can induce significant distributional shifts and price shocks, effective compensation and social protection programs are crucial. Based on the statistical simulation model by Araar and Verme (2012), this study estimates the regional variability of direct welfare effects of removing fuel subsidies in Nigeria. Uncompensated subsidy removal is estimated to increase the national poverty rate by 3–4% on average. However, uniform cash compensation that appears effective at the national average, is found to fail to mitigate price shocks in 16 of 37 states – thus putting livelihoods (and public support for reforms) at risk. States that are estimated to incur the largest welfare shocks, coincide with hotspots of civil unrest following Nigeria's 2012 subsidy reform attempt. The study illustrates how regionally disaggregated compensation can be revenue neutral, and maintain or reduce pre-reform poverty rates in all states. Overall, it highlights the importance of understanding differences in vulnerability, and designing tailored social protection schemes which ensure public support for subsidy reforms. - Highlights: •Fossil fuel subsidy reforms can induce significant distributional shifts and price shocks. •There is significant regional variation of a reform's effects on poverty rates. •Compensation is key to protect livelihoods and win public support for reform. •Compensation schemes must be carefully tailored to account for regional variation.

  15. Small scale changes of geochemistry and flow field due to transient heat storage in aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, S.; Boockmeyer, A.; Li, D.; Beyer, C.

    2013-12-01

    Heat exchangers in the subsurface are increasingly installed for transient heat storage due to the need of heating or cooling of buildings as well as the interim storage of heat to compensate for the temporally fluctuating energy production by wind or solar energy. For heat storage to be efficient, high temperatures must be achieved in the subsurface. Significant temporal changes of the soil and groundwater temperatures however effect both the local flow field by temperature dependent fluid parameters as well as reactive mass transport through temperature dependent diffusion coefficients, geochemical reaction rates and mineral equilibria. As the use of heat storage will be concentrated in urban areas, the use of the subsurface for (drinking) water supply and heat storage will typically coincide and a reliable prognosis of the processes occurring is needed. In the present work, the effects of a temporal variation of the groundwater temperature, as induced by a local heat exchanger introduced into a groundwater aquifer, are studied. For this purpose, the coupled non-isothermal groundwater flow, heat transport and reactive mass transport is simulated in the near filed of such a heat exchanger. By explicitly discretizing and incorporating the borehole, the borehole cementation and the heat exchanger tubes, a realistic geometrical and process representation is obtained. The numerical simulation code OpenGeoSys is used in this work, which incorporates the required processes of coupled groundwater flow, heat and mass transport as well as temperature dependent geochemistry. Due to the use of a Finite Element Method, a close representation of the geometric effects can be achieved. Synthetic scenario simulations for typical settings of salt water formations in northern Germany are used to investigate the geochemical effects arising from a high temperature heat storage by quantifying changes in groundwater chemistry and overall reaction rates. This work presents the

  16. Phosphorus management in cropping systems of the Paris Basin: From farm to regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Noë, Julia; Garnier, Josette; Billen, Gilles

    2018-01-01

    The sustainability of phosphorus (P) fertilization in cropping systems is an important issue because P resources on earth are limited and excess P in soils can lead to ecological damage such as eutrophication. Worldwide, there is an increasing interest in organic farming (OF) due to its good environmental performance. However, organic cropping systems are suspected of generating negative P budgets, which questions their ability to provide sustainable P management. The design of agricultural systems at a broader scale also largely influences the shape of the P cycle and the possibility of its recycling to cropland. In this context, the aim of this study was to assess the relative influence of (i) OF versus conventional farming (CF) practices and (ii) the structure of agro-food systems at the regional scale, on P cycling and availability on cropland. For this purpose, we examined P budgets and soil P status of 14 organic and conventional cropping systems in commercial farms located in the Paris Basin. Available P was analyzed using two different methods: resin P and Olsen P. The results revealed no significant differences between CF and OF in available P stocks. Phosphorus budgets were always negative and significantly lower in CF systems, indicating that P was mined from soil reserves. In parallel, we estimated P budgets over cropland in all French regions for two distinct periods, 2004-2014 and 1970-1981, and showed that specialized intensive cropping systems in the Paris Basin led to a high, positive P budget in the latter period. However, this trend was reversed in the 2004-2014 period due to a sharp reduction of the mineral fertilizer application rate. The shift from very high P budgets to much lower and sometimes negative P budgets would not be a threat for agriculture due to the current high level of Olsen P in these regions, which was consistent with our measurements at the plot scale. Overall, these results suggest that OF would not lead to more P deficiency

  17. Modelling cloud effects on ozone on a regional scale : A case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matthijsen, J.; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Meijer, E.W.; Boersen, G.

    1997-01-01

    We have investigated the influence of clouds on ozone on a regional scale (Europe) with a regional scale photochemical dispersion model (LOTOS). The LOTOS-model calculates ozone and other photo-oxidant concentrations in the lowest three km of the troposphere, using actual meteorologic data and

  18. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

  19. Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

    OpenAIRE

    Stenke A.; Hoyle C. R.; Luo B.; Rozanov E.; Groebner J.; Maag L.; Broennimann S.; Peter T.

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on Earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a...

  20. Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from cropland at the regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabrielle Benoît

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Arable soils are a large source of nitrous oxide (N2O emissions, making up half of the biogenic emissions worldwide. Estimating their source strength requires methods capable of capturing the spatial and temporal variability of N2O emissions, along with the effects of crop management. Here, we applied a process-based model, CERES, with geo-referenced input data on soils, weather, and land use to map N2O emissions from wheat-cropped soils in three agriculturally intensive regions in France. Emissions were mostly controlled by soil type and local climate conditions, and only to a minor extent by the doses of fertilizer nitrogen applied. As a result, the direct emission factors calculated at the regional level were much smaller (ranging from 0.0007 to 0.0033 kg N2O-N kg–1 N than the value of 0.0125 kg N2O-N kg–1 N currently recommended in the IPCC Tier 1 methodology. Regional emissions were far more sensitive to the soil microbiological parameter s governing denitrification and its fraction evolved as N2O, soil bulk density, and soil initial inorganic N content. Mitigation measures should therefore target a reduction in the amount of soil inorganic N upon sowing of winter crops, and a decrease of the soil N2O production potential itself. From a general perspective, taking into account the spatial variability of soils and climate thereby appears necessary to improve the accuracy of national inventories, and to tailor mitigation strategies to regional characteristics. The methodology and results presented here may easily be transferred to winter oilseed rape, whose has growing cycle and fertilser requirements are similar.

  1. Regional prediction of basin-scale brown trout habitat suitability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ceola

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study we propose a novel method for the estimation of ecological indices describing the habitat suitability of brown trout (Salmo trutta. Traditional hydrological tools are coupled with an innovative regional geostatistical technique, aiming at the prediction of the brown trout habitat suitability index where partial or totally ungauged conditions occur. Several methods for the assessment of ecological indices are already proposed in the scientific literature, but the possibility of exploiting a geostatistical prediction model, such as Topological Kriging, has never been investigated before. In order to develop a regional habitat suitability model we use the habitat suitability curve, obtained from measured data of brown trout adult individuals collected in several river basins across the USA. The Top-kriging prediction model is then employed to assess the spatial correlation between upstream and downstream habitat suitability indices. The study area is the Metauro River basin, located in the central part of Italy (Marche region, for which both water depth and streamflow data were collected. The present analysis focuses on discharge values corresponding to the 0.1-, 0.5-, 0.9-empirical quantiles derived from flow-duration curves available for seven gauging stations located within the study area, for which three different suitability indices (i.e. ψ10, ψ50 and ψ90 are evaluated. The results of this preliminary analysis are encouraging showing Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies equal to 0.52, 0.65, and 0.69, respectively.

  2. Regional prediction of basin-scale brown trout habitat suitability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceola, S.; Pugliese, A.

    2014-09-01

    In this study we propose a novel method for the estimation of ecological indices describing the habitat suitability of brown trout (Salmo trutta). Traditional hydrological tools are coupled with an innovative regional geostatistical technique, aiming at the prediction of the brown trout habitat suitability index where partial or totally ungauged conditions occur. Several methods for the assessment of ecological indices are already proposed in the scientific literature, but the possibility of exploiting a geostatistical prediction model, such as Topological Kriging, has never been investigated before. In order to develop a regional habitat suitability model we use the habitat suitability curve, obtained from measured data of brown trout adult individuals collected in several river basins across the USA. The Top-kriging prediction model is then employed to assess the spatial correlation between upstream and downstream habitat suitability indices. The study area is the Metauro River basin, located in the central part of Italy (Marche region), for which both water depth and streamflow data were collected. The present analysis focuses on discharge values corresponding to the 0.1-, 0.5-, 0.9-empirical quantiles derived from flow-duration curves available for seven gauging stations located within the study area, for which three different suitability indices (i.e. ψ10, ψ50 and ψ90) are evaluated. The results of this preliminary analysis are encouraging showing Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies equal to 0.52, 0.65, and 0.69, respectively.

  3. Adaptation to extreme climate events at a regional scale

    OpenAIRE

    Hoffmann, Christin

    2017-01-01

    A significant increase of the frequency, the intensity and the duration of extreme climate events in Switzerland induces the need to find a strategy to deal with the damages they cause. For more than two decades, mitigation has been the main objective of climate policy. However, due to already high atmospheric carbon concentrations and the inertia of the climate system, climate change is unavoidable to some degree, even if today’s emissions were almost completely cut back. Along with the high...

  4. Potential impacts on regional climate due to land degradation in the Guizhou Karst Plateau of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Jiangbo; Wu, Shaohong; Xue, Yongkang

    2013-01-01

    The possible regional climatic effects of land condition change in the Guizhou Karst Plateau (GKP), which has experienced serious Karst Rocky Desertification (KRD) in the past decades, were investigated in this study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model. It was shown that when compared with validation datasets, the WRF showed a high ability to downscale NCEP-DOE Reanalysis-2, which provided the initial and lateral boundary conditions for WRF, especially for the precipitation simulation. After land degradation over the GKP, the net radiation and evaporation were reduced mainly within the desertification area, consistent with the reduction in rainfall and the increase in surface temperature there. The southwest monsoon flow from the Bay of Bengal was weakened over the adjacent area to the northeast, influencing the East Asian summer monsoon. Meanwhile, the weaker low-layer anti-cyclone and the stronger horizontal convergence enhanced vertical motion in the southeastern coastal areas. Furthermore, owing to the decreased surface heating in the degradation experiment, the lifting over the GKP and neighboring regions to the east was limited, which resulted in a reduced rainfall within the GKP and strengthened the ascending motion downstream over 114°–122° E. Such circulation differences favored an increase in moisture flux and clouds, thereby causing more precipitation in coastal areas of southeast China. (letter)

  5. Obstructive jaundice due to tuberculosis of distal CBD and periampullary region mimickcholangiocarcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumantra Ray

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abdominal tuberculosis (TB commonly affects the intestinal tract, lymph nodes, peritoneum, and solid organs in varying combinations. Hepatobiliary or pancreatic TB is rare and the preoperative diagnosis is difficult. Though rare, there have been a few citations of intrahepatic tuberculosis, but isolated bile duct tuberculosis is extremely rare. Here we report a case of obstructive jaundice which was initially thought to be due to lower-end cholangiocarcinoma but postoperatively it was found to be tuberculosis.

  6. Integrating regional and continental scale comparisons of tree composition in Amazonian terra firme forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honorio Coronado, E. N.; Baker, T. R.; Phillips, O. L.; Pitman, N. C. A.; Pennington, R. T.; Vásquez Martínez, R.; Monteagudo, A.; Mogollón, H.; Dávila Cardozo, N.; Ríos, M.; García-Villacorta, R.; Valderrama, E.; Ahuite, M.; Huamantupa, I.; Neill, D. A.; Laurance, W. F.; Nascimento, H. E. M.; Soares de Almeida, S.; Killeen, T. J.; Arroyo, L.; Núñez, P.; Freitas Alvarado, L.

    2009-01-01

    We contrast regional and continental-scale comparisons of the floristic composition of terra firme forest in South Amazonia, using 55 plots across Amazonia and a subset of 30 plots from northern Peru and Ecuador. Firstly, we examine the floristic patterns using both genus- or species-level data and find that the species-level analysis more clearly distinguishes different plot clusters. Secondly, we compare the patterns and causes of floristic differences at regional and continental scales. At a continental scale, ordination analysis shows that species of Lecythidaceae and Sapotaceae are gradually replaced by species of Arecaceae and Myristicaceae from eastern to western Amazonia. These floristic gradients are correlated with gradients in soil fertility and to dry season length, similar to previous studies. At a regional scale, similar patterns are found within north-western Amazonia, where differences in soil fertility distinguish plots where species of Lecythidaceae, characteristic of poor soils, are gradually replaced by species of Myristicaceae on richer soils. The main coordinate of this regional-scale ordination correlates mainly with concentrations of available calcium and magnesium. Thirdly, we ask at a regional scale within north-western Amazonia, whether soil fertility or other distance dependent processes are more important for determining variation in floristic composition. A Mantel test indicates that both soils and geographical distance have a similar and significant role in determining floristic similarity across this region. Overall, these results suggest that regional-scale variation in floristic composition can rival continental scale differences within Amazonian terra firme forests, and that variation in floristic composition at both scales is dependent on a range of processes that include both habitat specialisation related to edaphic conditions and other distance-dependent processes. To fully account for regional scale variation in continental

  7. Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises,

  8. SMALL-SCALE SOLAR WIND TURBULENCE DUE TO NONLINEAR ALFVÉN WAVES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Sanjay; Moon, Y.-J. [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Gyeonggi-Do, 446-701 (Korea, Republic of); Sharma, R. P., E-mail: sanjaykumar@khu.ac.kr [Centre for Energy Studies, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 (India)

    2015-10-10

    We present an evolution of wave localization and magnetic power spectra in solar wind plasma using kinetic Alfvén waves (AWs) and fast AWs. We use a two-fluid model to derive the dynamical equations of these wave modes and then numerically solve these nonlinear dynamical equations to analyze the power spectra and wave localization at different times. The ponderomotive force associated with the kinetic AW (or pump) is responsible for the wave localization, and these thin slabs (or sheets) become more chaotic as the system evolves with time until the modulational instability (or oscillating two-stream instability) saturates. From our numerical results, we notice a steepening of the spectra from the inertial range (k{sup −1.67}) to the dispersion range (k{sup −3.0}). The steepening of the spectra could be described as the energy transference from longer to smaller scales. The formation of complex magnetic thin slabs and the change of the spectral index may be considered to be the main reason for the charged particles acceleration in solar wind plasma.

  9. Large-scale structuring of a rotating plasma due to plasma macroinstabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kikuchi, Toshinori; Ikehata, Takashi; Sato, Naoyuki; Watahiki, Takeshi; Tanabe, Toshio; Mase, Hiroshi

    1995-01-01

    The formation of coherent structures during plasma macroinstabilities have been of interest in view of the nonlinear plasma physics. In the present paper, we have investigated in detail, the mechanism and specific features of large-scale structuring of a rotating plasma. In the case of weak magnetic field, the plasma ejected from a plasma gun has a high beta value (β > 1) so that it expands rapidly across the magnetic field excluding a magnetic flux from its interior. Then, the boundary between the expanding plasma and the magnetic field becomes unstable against Rayleigh-Taylor instability. This instability has the higher growth rate at the shorter wavelength and the mode appears as flute. These features of the instability are confirmed by the observation of radial plasma jets with the azimuthal mode number m=20-40 in the early time of the plasma expansion. In the case of strong magnetic field, on the other hand, the plasma little expands and rotates at two times the ion sound speed. Especially, we observe spiral jets of m=2 instead of short-wavelength radial jets. This mode appears only when a glass target is installed or a dense neutral gas is introduced around the plasma to give the plasma a frictional force. From these results and with reference to the theory of plasma instabilities, the centrifugal instability caused by a combination of the velocity shear and centrifugal force is concluded to be responsible for the formation of spiral jets. (author)

  10. Changes in extreme regional sea surface height due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; van Werkhoven, B.J.C.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.

    2014-01-01

    As an extreme scenario of dynamical sea level changes, regional sea surface height (SSH) changes that occur in the North Atlantic due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are simulated. Two versions of the same ocean-only model are used to study the effect

  11. Model calculated global, regional and megacity premature mortality due to air pollution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lelieveld

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5 and ozone (O3 has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. We estimate the premature mortality rates and the years of human life lost (YLL caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 in 2005 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization (WHO. This is based upon high-resolution global model calculations that resolve urban and industrial regions in greater detail compared to previous work. Results indicate that 69% of the global population is exposed to an annual mean anthropogenic PM2.5 concentration of >10 μg m−3 (WHO guideline and 33% to > 25 μg m−3 (EU directive. We applied an epidemiological health impact function and find that especially in large countries with extensive suburban and rural populations, air pollution-induced mortality rates have been underestimated given that previous studies largely focused on the urban environment. We calculate a global respiratory mortality of about 773 thousand/year (YLL ≈ 5.2 million/year, 186 thousand/year by lung cancer (YLL ≈ 1.7 million/year and 2.0 million/year by cardiovascular disease (YLL ≈ 14.3 million/year. The global mean per capita mortality caused by air pollution is about 0.1% yr−1. The highest premature mortality rates are found in the Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions (about 25% and 46% of the global rate, respectively where more than a dozen of the most highly polluted megacities are located.

  12. Regional heterogeneity in consumption due to current income shocks: New evidence from the Permanent Income Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mitze, Timo

    In the light of new theoretical and empirical work on the Permanent Income Hypothesis we tackle earlier findings for German data, which reject its validity given a large fraction of liquidity constrained consumers. Starting from a standard short run approach we do not find evidence for excess...... borrow from the literature on Poolability tests and search for macro regional clusters with similar adjustment paths. The findings show that for the sample of West German states between 1970 and 2006 both for short and long run parameters the assumption of poolability of the data cannot be rejected...

  13. Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide

  14. EVALUATION OF WATER POLLUTION STATUS IN SIRET HYDROGRAPHICAL BASIN (SUCEAVA REGION DUE TO AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Zaharia

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The study presents data concerning the water pollution status of Siret hydrographical basin (i.e. surface and ground waters, lakes in Suceava County area (different controlling/monitoring sections due to agricultural productive activities, especially regarding some quality indicators (nitrogen-based nutrient concentrations evaluated for 2008. These data are recommending the necessity of continuous monitoring of water quality in the Siret River hydrographical basin, in all existing control sections, for identification of any pollution episodes, non-reported by polluters to the local environmental regulators.

  15. Analysis of morbidity in the population of Kozeletsky district, (Chernigiv region) contaminated due to Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gridzhuk, M.Yu.

    1998-01-01

    Statistical analysis was used to study the changes in the incidence of definite cardiovascular, endocrine diseases as well as those of the central nervous system, cancer and chronic alcoholism during the recent 20 years. The annual statistical reports of medical establishments were taken as baseline data. After the Chernobyl accident increase of incidence of definite diseases was noted which may be due to the action a number of harmful factors. Their successful treatment and prophylaxis requires establishment of the true cause and correlation with the causative factors

  16. Regional ADC values of the normal brain: differences due to age, gender, and laterality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naganawa, Shinji; Ishigaki, Takeo [Department of Radiology, Nagoya University School of Medicine, 65 Tsurumai-cho, Shouwa-ku, Nagoya 466-8550 (Japan); Sato, Kimihide; Katagiri, Toshio; Mimura, Takeo [Department of Radiology, First Kamiida General Hospital (Japan)

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the stability of measurement for apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values in normal brain, to clarify the effect of aging on ADC values, to compare ADC values between men and women, and to compare ADC values between right and left sides of the brain. To evaluate the stability of measurements, five normal volunteers (four men and one woman) were examined five times on different days. Then, 294 subjects with normal MR imaging (147 men and 147 women; age range 20-89 years) were measured. The ADC measurement in normal volunteers was stable. The ADC values stayed within the 5% deviation of average values in all volunteers (mean{+-}standard deviation 2.3{+-}1.2%). The ADC values gradually increased by aging in all regions. In thalamus, no significant difference was seen between right and left in the subjects under 60 years; however, right side showed higher values in the subjects over 60 years (p<0.01). In the subjects under 60 years, women showed higher values in right frontal, bilateral thalamus, and temporal (p<0.01); however, in the subjects over 60 years, no region showed difference between men and women. The knowledge obtained in this study may be helpful to understand the developmental and aging mechanisms of normal brain and may be useful for the future quantitative study as a reference. (orig.)

  17. Inputs of heavy metals due to agrochemical use in tobacco fields in Brazil's Southern Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoffoli, Hugo José Oliveira; do Amaral-Sobrinho, Nelson Moura Brasil; Zonta, Everaldo; Luisi, Marcus Vinícius; Marcon, Gracioso; Tolón-Becerra, Alfredo

    2013-03-01

    Only a few studies have assessed the joint incorporation of heavy metals into agricultural systems based on the range of agrochemicals used on a specific agricultural crop. This study was conducted to assess the heavy metals input through application of the main agrochemicals used in Brazilian tobacco fields. A total of 56 samples of different batches of 5 fertilizers, 3 substrates, 8 insecticides, 3 fungicides, 2 herbicides, and 1 growth regulator commonly used in the cultivation of tobacco in Brazil's Southern Region were collected from 3 warehouses located in the States of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná. The total As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn content of the samples was then determined and compared with the regulations of different countries and information found in the available literature. The fertilizers were identified as the primary source of heavy metals among the agrochemicals used. Application of pesticides directly to the shoots of tobacco plants contributed very little to the supply of heavy metals. The agrochemicals used in Brazilian tobacco fields provide lower inputs of the main heavy metals that are nonessential for plants than those registered in the international literature for the majority of crop fields in different regions of the world.

  18. Regional ADC values of the normal brain: differences due to age, gender, and laterality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naganawa, Shinji; Ishigaki, Takeo; Sato, Kimihide; Katagiri, Toshio; Mimura, Takeo

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the stability of measurement for apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values in normal brain, to clarify the effect of aging on ADC values, to compare ADC values between men and women, and to compare ADC values between right and left sides of the brain. To evaluate the stability of measurements, five normal volunteers (four men and one woman) were examined five times on different days. Then, 294 subjects with normal MR imaging (147 men and 147 women; age range 20-89 years) were measured. The ADC measurement in normal volunteers was stable. The ADC values stayed within the 5% deviation of average values in all volunteers (mean±standard deviation 2.3±1.2%). The ADC values gradually increased by aging in all regions. In thalamus, no significant difference was seen between right and left in the subjects under 60 years; however, right side showed higher values in the subjects over 60 years (p<0.01). In the subjects under 60 years, women showed higher values in right frontal, bilateral thalamus, and temporal (p<0.01); however, in the subjects over 60 years, no region showed difference between men and women. The knowledge obtained in this study may be helpful to understand the developmental and aging mechanisms of normal brain and may be useful for the future quantitative study as a reference. (orig.)

  19. Evaluating uncertainties in regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solman, Silvina A. [Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera CIMA/CONICET-UBA, DCAO/FCEN, UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, CIMA-Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Pessacg, Natalia L. [Centro Nacional Patagonico (CONICET), Puerto Madryn, Chubut (Argentina)

    2012-07-15

    This work focuses on the evaluation of different sources of uncertainty affecting regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale, using the MM5 model. The simulations cover a 3-month period for the austral spring season. Several four-member ensembles were performed in order to quantify the uncertainty due to: the internal variability; the definition of the regional model domain; the choice of physical parameterizations and the selection of physical parameters within a particular cumulus scheme. The uncertainty was measured by means of the spread among individual members of each ensemble during the integration period. Results show that the internal variability, triggered by differences in the initial conditions, represents the lowest level of uncertainty for every variable analyzed. The geographic distribution of the spread among ensemble members depends on the variable: for precipitation and temperature the largest spread is found over tropical South America while for the mean sea level pressure the largest spread is located over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean, where large synoptic-scale activity occurs. Using nudging techniques to ingest the boundary conditions reduces dramatically the internal variability. The uncertainty due to the domain choice displays a similar spatial pattern compared with the internal variability, except for the mean sea level pressure field, though its magnitude is larger all over the model domain for every variable. The largest spread among ensemble members is found for the ensemble in which different combinations of physical parameterizations are selected. The perturbed physics ensemble produces a level of uncertainty slightly larger than the internal variability. This study suggests that no matter what the source of uncertainty is, the geographical distribution of the spread among members of the ensembles is invariant, particularly for precipitation and temperature. (orig.)

  20. EEG phase reset due to auditory attention: an inverse time-scale approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Low, Yin Fen; Strauss, Daniel J

    2009-01-01

    We propose a novel tool to evaluate the electroencephalograph (EEG) phase reset due to auditory attention by utilizing an inverse analysis of the instantaneous phase for the first time. EEGs were acquired through auditory attention experiments with a maximum entropy stimulation paradigm. We examined single sweeps of auditory late response (ALR) with the complex continuous wavelet transform. The phase in the frequency band that is associated with auditory attention (6–10 Hz, termed as theta–alpha border) was reset to the mean phase of the averaged EEGs. The inverse transform was applied to reconstruct the phase-modified signal. We found significant enhancement of the N100 wave in the reconstructed signal. Analysis of the phase noise shows the effects of phase jittering on the generation of the N100 wave implying that a preferred phase is necessary to generate the event-related potential (ERP). Power spectrum analysis shows a remarkable increase of evoked power but little change of total power after stabilizing the phase of EEGs. Furthermore, by resetting the phase only at the theta border of no attention data to the mean phase of attention data yields a result that resembles attention data. These results show strong connections between EEGs and ERP, in particular, we suggest that the presentation of an auditory stimulus triggers the phase reset process at the theta–alpha border which leads to the emergence of the N100 wave. It is concluded that our study reinforces other studies on the importance of the EEG in ERP genesis

  1. EEG phase reset due to auditory attention: an inverse time-scale approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Low, Yin Fen; Strauss, Daniel J

    2009-08-01

    We propose a novel tool to evaluate the electroencephalograph (EEG) phase reset due to auditory attention by utilizing an inverse analysis of the instantaneous phase for the first time. EEGs were acquired through auditory attention experiments with a maximum entropy stimulation paradigm. We examined single sweeps of auditory late response (ALR) with the complex continuous wavelet transform. The phase in the frequency band that is associated with auditory attention (6-10 Hz, termed as theta-alpha border) was reset to the mean phase of the averaged EEGs. The inverse transform was applied to reconstruct the phase-modified signal. We found significant enhancement of the N100 wave in the reconstructed signal. Analysis of the phase noise shows the effects of phase jittering on the generation of the N100 wave implying that a preferred phase is necessary to generate the event-related potential (ERP). Power spectrum analysis shows a remarkable increase of evoked power but little change of total power after stabilizing the phase of EEGs. Furthermore, by resetting the phase only at the theta border of no attention data to the mean phase of attention data yields a result that resembles attention data. These results show strong connections between EEGs and ERP, in particular, we suggest that the presentation of an auditory stimulus triggers the phase reset process at the theta-alpha border which leads to the emergence of the N100 wave. It is concluded that our study reinforces other studies on the importance of the EEG in ERP genesis.

  2. Biogas infrastructure from farm-scale to regional scale, line-pack storage in biogas grids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evert Jan Hengeveld

    2016-01-01

    The number of local and regional initiatives encouraging the production and use of regional produced energy grows. In these new developments biogas can play a role, as a producer of energy, but also in balancing the electricity grid. Collection of biogas from several digesters to a hub supports the

  3. Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toon, O. B.; Turco, R. P.; Robock, A.; Bardeen, C.; Oman, L.; Stenchikov, G. L.

    2007-04-01

    We assess the potential damage and smoke production associated with the detonation of small nuclear weapons in modern megacities. While the number of nuclear warheads in the world has fallen by about a factor of three since its peak in 1986, the number of nuclear weapons states is increasing and the potential exists for numerous regional nuclear arms races. Eight countries are known to have nuclear weapons, 2 are constructing them, and an additional 32 nations already have the fissile material needed to build substantial arsenals of low-yield (Hiroshima-sized) explosives. Population and economic activity worldwide are congregated to an increasing extent in megacities, which might be targeted in a nuclear conflict. We find that low yield weapons, which new nuclear powers are likely to construct, can produce 100 times as many fatalities and 100 times as much smoke from fires per kt yield as previously estimated in analyses for full scale nuclear wars using high-yield weapons, if the small weapons are targeted at city centers. A single "small" nuclear detonation in an urban center could lead to more fatalities, in some cases by orders of magnitude, than have occurred in the major historical conflicts of many countries. We analyze the likely outcome of a regional nuclear exchange involving 100 15-kt explosions (less than 0.1% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal). We find that such an exchange could produce direct fatalities comparable to all of those worldwide in World War II, or to those once estimated for a "counterforce" nuclear war between the superpowers. Megacities exposed to atmospheric fallout of long-lived radionuclides would likely be abandoned indefinitely, with severe national and international implications. Our analysis shows that smoke from urban firestorms in a regional war would rise into the upper troposphere due to pyro-convection. Robock et al. (2007) show that the smoke would subsequently rise deep into the stratosphere due

  4. National, regional and global mortality due to alcoholic cardiomyopathy in 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manthey, Jakob; Probst, Charlotte; Rylett, Margaret; Rehm, Jürgen

    2018-03-13

    (1) A comprehensive mortality assessment of alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM) and (2) examination of under-reporting using vital statistics data. A modelling study estimated sex-specific mortality rates for each country, which were subsequently aggregated by region and globally. Input data on ACM mortality were obtained from death registries for n=91 countries. For n=99 countries, mortality estimates were predicted using aggregate alcohol data from WHO publications. Descriptive additional analyses illustrated the scope of under-reporting. In 2015, there were an estimated 25 997 (95% CI 17 385 to 49 096) global deaths from ACM. This translates into 6.3% (95% CI 4.2% to 11.9%) of all global deaths from cardiomyopathy being caused by alcohol. There were large regional variations with regard to mortality burden. While the majority of ACM deaths were found in Russia (19 749 deaths, 76.0% of all ACM deaths), for about one-third of countries (n=57) less than one ACM death was found. Under-reporting was identified for nearly every second country with civil registration data. Overall, two out of three global ACM deaths might be misclassified. The variation of ACM mortality burden is greater than for other alcohol-attributable diseases, and partly may be the result of stigma and lack of detection. Misclassification of ACM fatalities is a systematic phenomenon, which may be caused by low resources, lacking standards and stigma associated with alcohol-use disorders. Clinical management may be improved by including routine alcohol assessments. This could contribute to decrease misclassifications and to provide the best available treatment for affected patients. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  5. Damages in American Samoa due to the 29 September 2009 Samoa Islands Region Earthquake Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okumura, Y.; Takahashi, T.; Suzuki, S.

    2009-12-01

    A large earthquake of Mw 8.0 occurred in Samoa Islands Region in the early morning on 29 September 2009 (local time). A Large Tsunami generated by the earthquake hit Samoa, American Samoa, Tonga. Total 192 people were died or missing in these three countries (22 October 2009). The authors surveyed in Tutuila Island, American Samoa from 6 to 8 in October 2009 with the aim to find out damages in the disaster. In American Samoa, death and missing toll was 35. The main findings are as follows; first, human damages were little for tsunami run-up height of about 4 to 6 meters and tsunami arrival time of about 20 minutes. We can suppose that residents evacuated quickly after feeling shaking or something. Secondly, houses were severely damaged in some low elevation coastal villages such as Amanave, Leone, Pago Pago, Tula and so on. Third, a power plant and an airport, which are important infrastructures in relief and recovery phase, were also severely damaged. Inundation depth at the power plant was 2.31 meters. A blackout in the daytime lasted when we surveyed. On the other hand, the airport could use already at that time. But it was closed on the first day in the disaster because of a lot of disaster debris on the runway carried by tsunami. Inundation depth at the airport fence was measured in 0.7 to 0.8 meters. Other countries in the south-western Pacific region may have power plants or airports with similar risk, so it should be assessed against future tsunami disasters. Inundated thermal power plant in Pago Pago Debris on runway in Tafuna Airport (Provided by Mr. Chris Soti, DPA)

  6. Collapse risk of buildings in the Pacific Northwest region due to subduction earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghunandan, Meera; Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    Subduction earthquakes similar to the 2011 Japan and 2010 Chile events will occur in the future in the Cascadia subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest. In this paper, nonlinear dynamic analyses are carried out on 24 buildings designed according to outdated and modern building codes for the cities of Seattle, Washington, and Portland, Oregon. The results indicate that the median collapse capacity of the ductile (post-1970) buildings is approximately 40% less when subjected to ground motions from subduction, as compared to crustal earthquakes. Buildings are more susceptible to earthquake-induced collapse when shaken by subduction records (as compared to crustal records of the same intensity) because the subduction motions tend to be longer in duration due to their larger magnitude and the greater source-to-site distance. As a result, subduction earthquakes are shown to contribute to the majority of the collapse risk of the buildings analyzed.

  7. Large-scale projects between regional planning and environmental protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, G.

    1984-01-01

    The first part of the work discusses the current law of land-use planning, municipal and technical construction planning, and licensing under the atomic energy law and the federal law on immission protection. In the second part some theses suggesting modifications are submitted. In the sector of land-use planning substantial contributions to the protection of the environment can only be expected from programs and plans (aims). For the environmental conflicts likely to arise from large-scale projects (nuclear power plant, fossil-fuel power plant) this holds good for the most part of site selection plans. They have bearings on environmental protection in that they presuppose thorough examination of facts, help to recognize possible conflicts at an early date and provide a frame for solving those problems. Municipal construction planning is guided by the following principles: Environmental protection is an equivalent planning target. Environmental data and facts and their methodical processing play a fundamental part as they constitute the basis of evaluation. Under the rules and regulations of the federal law on immission protection, section 5, number 2 - prevention of nuisances - operators are obliged to take preventive care of risks. That section is not concerned with planning or distribution. Neither does the licensing of nuclear plants have planning character. So far as the legal preconditions of licensing are fulfilled, the scope for rejection of an application under section 7, subsection 2 of the atomic energy law in view of site selection and requirement of a plant hardly carries any practical weight. (orig./HP) [de

  8. Regional-scale analysis of subtidal rocky shore community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derrien-Courtel, Sandrine; Le Gal, Aodren; Grall, Jacques

    2013-12-01

    The French monitoring network, REseau BENThique (REBENT), was launched by the Ministry of the Environment in 2003 following the 1999 Erika oil spill. REBENT aimed to acquire baseline knowledge of coastal benthic habitat distributions with a special focus on biological diversity. This study analyzed data from 38 subtidal rocky reef sites collected by a single diving team of marine biologists along the coast of Brittany from 2004 to 2010. At each site, the depth limits of the algal belts were determined between 0 and -40 m Chart Datum (CD); the flora and fauna compositions and abundances were sampled at -3 and -8 m CD. A total of 364 taxa (156 flora and 208 fauna), belonging to 12 phyla, were identified. The results showed that the depth limit and density of kelp beds increased as water turbidity decreased; moreover, several changes in community structure could be related to water turbidity and temperature. Thus, northern and southern Brittany showed strong differences in diversity and structure of the dominant kelp species ( Laminaria hyperborea and Saccorhiza polyschides). The results from this kelp habitat composition survey (dominant kelp species and indicator species) provided important information for local pressure assessments, like increases in turbidity. The data also provided a reference that could be useful for detecting changes in coastal water temperatures due to global warming.

  9. Changes in dermal papilla structures due to aging in the facial cheek region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizukoshi, K; Yonekura, K; Futagawa, M; Nakamura, T; Hirayama, K; Takahashi, K

    2015-05-01

    In the past, it has been possible to measure the dermal papilla structures which are undulations between the epidermis and dermis by noninvasive method. However, almost all of previous studies were not intended to measure facial skin but another site of body. Here, we investigated age-dependent alterations for dermal papilla structures in the facial cheek region after elucidating the difference of characteristics between the body site. The surface of the dermis was observed under scanning electron microscope (SEM) using face and abdominal skin biopsy samples. A total of 90 Japanese women were investigated by in vivo confocal laser microscope (CLSM). The number and the shape in the horizontal cross-sectional images of the dermal papilla were analyzed. The facial skin had different characteristics in comparison to the abdominal skin by SEM observation. Under CLSM observation, we found abnormal dermal papilla structures which were accompanied by spots or enlarged pore areas and eliminated these structures from our analysis. We revealed a decrease in the number of normal dermal papilla structures with age and large individual differences at younger ages. We found abnormal dermal papilla structures and differences in the dermal papilla structures between face and other body site. With these taken into consideration, we could precisely investigate the aging alteration of normal dermal papilla structures in the face. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Regional ADC values of the normal brain: differences due to age, gender, and laterality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naganawa, Shinji; Sato, Kimihide; Katagiri, Toshio; Mimura, Takeo; Ishigaki, Takeo

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the stability of measurement for apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values in normal brain, to clarify the effect of aging on ADC values, to compare ADC values between men and women, and to compare ADC values between right and left sides of the brain. To evaluate the stability of measurements, five normal volunteers (four men and one woman) were examined five times on different days. Then, 294 subjects with normal MR imaging (147 men and 147 women; age range 20-89 years) were measured. The ADC measurement in normal volunteers was stable. The ADC values stayed within the 5% deviation of average values in all volunteers (mean+/-standard deviation 2.3+/-1.2%). The ADC values gradually increased by aging in all regions. In thalamus, no significant difference was seen between right and left in the subjects under 60 years; however, right side showed higher values in the subjects over 60 years (pright frontal, bilateral thalamus, and temporal (pbrain and may be useful for the future quantitative study as a reference.

  11. Coma Morphology Due to an Extended Active Region and Implications for the Spin State of Comet Hale-Bopp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samarasinha, Nalin H.

    2000-01-01

    We show that the circular character of continuum structures observed in the coma of comet Hale-Bopp around the perihelion passage is most likely due to a dust jet from a large extended active region on the surface. Coma morphology due to a wide jet is different from that due to a narrow jet. The latter shows foreshortening effects due to observing geometry, wider jet produces more circular features. This circularization effect provides a self-consistent explanation for the evolution of near-perihelion coma morphology. No changes in the direction of the rotational angular momentum vector are required during this period in contrast to the models of Schleicher et al. This circularization effect also enables us to produce near-circular coma features in the S-E quadrant during 1997 late February and therefore questions the basic premise on which Sekanina bases his morphological arguments for a gravitationally bound satellite nucleus.

  12. Hell and High Water: Diminished Septic System Performance in Coastal Regions Due to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Jennifer A; Loomis, George W; Amador, Jose A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change may affect the ability of soil-based onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) to treat wastewater in coastal regions of the Northeastern United States. Higher temperatures and water tables can affect treatment by reducing the volume of unsaturated soil and oxygen available for treatment, which may result in greater transport of pathogens, nutrients, and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) to groundwater, jeopardizing public and aquatic ecosystem health. The soil treatment area (STA) of an OWTS removes contaminants as wastewater percolates through the soil. Conventional STAs receive wastewater from the septic tank, with infiltration occurring deeper in the soil profile. In contrast, shallow narrow STAs receive pre-treated wastewater that infiltrates higher in the soil profile, which may make them more resilient to climate change. We used intact soil mesocosms to quantify the water quality functions of a conventional and two types of shallow narrow STAs under present climate (PC; 20°C) and climate change (CC; 25°C, 30 cm elevation in water table). Significantly greater removal of BOD5 was observed under CC for all STA types. Phosphorus removal decreased significantly from 75% (PC) to 66% (CC) in the conventional STA, and from 100% to 71-72% in shallow narrow STAs. No fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) were released under PC, whereas up to 17 and 20 CFU 100 mL-1 were released in conventional and shallow narrow STAs, respectively, under CC. Total N removal increased from 14% (PC) to 19% (CC) in the conventional STA, but decreased in shallow narrow STAs, from 6-7% to less than 3.0%. Differences in removal of FCB and total N were not significant. Leaching of N in excess of inputs was also observed in shallow narrow STAs under CC. Our results indicate that climate change can affect contaminant removal from wastewater, with effects dependent on the contaminant and STA type.

  13. Safety of Potato Consumption in Slovak Region Contaminated by Heavy Metals due to Previous Mining Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janette Musilova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Heavy metals are among the most serious environmental contaminants in mining districts. Soil, as one of the main components of the environment, is the place of heavy metal entry into plants and consequently into the food chain, too. Potatoes grown in the region of Middle Spis (Slovakia may be a source of increased content of heavy metals and pose a health risk to the consumer. The contents of heavy metals (Cd, Pb, and Ni in potato and soil samples were determined using the AAS method and compared with limit values set by the Slovak Republic and the European Union. The content of heavy metals was determined in 12 potato cultivars with different length of vegetation period (mid-early, very early, and early, resp., which were grown in three localities with a highly disturbed environment. Total contents and mobile forms of heavy metals as well as physical and chemical properties were determined in soil samples which were collected from the same sampling sites. Only Pb content in potato tubers was higher than the hygienic limit value (0.1 mg kg−1 FM in 15 sampling sites (interval was n.d. –0.2298 mg kg−1 FM. The contents of exchangeable forms (total content of heavy metals in soil were ranged between the intervals: Cd 0.004–0.055 (0.94–1 56, Pb 0.023–0.295 (17.00–26.80, and Ni 0.019–0.475 (30.80–71.00 mg kg−1. At current average consumption levels of potatoes, tolerable weekly intake (TWI or tolerable daily intake (TDI for observed heavy metals was not exceeded.

  14. Evaluation of effects on integral parameters, due to homogenization of one region of a core-blanket system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assis, J.T. de

    1982-01-01

    The effects produced on the integral parameters due to the homogenization in the core-blanket inrterface, were evaluated, adopting an 1D diffusion calculation. The calculation for one plane cell with the characteristics of the critical mounting ZPR-6-5, was done using the Hetaire computer code with the Carnaval II data library for 25 energy groups. For the transport calculation the ANISN and RMAT1D computer codes were used. By the homogenization of an interface region, flux values, cross sections and reactivity are obtained for several thicknesses of this region. The results of diffusion calculation are compared with the transport calculation. (E.G.) [pt

  15. Spatial data analysis and integration for regional-scale geothermal potential mapping, West Java, Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carranza, Emmanuel John M.; Barritt, Sally D. [Department of Earth Systems Analysis, International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Enschede (Netherlands); Wibowo, Hendro; Sumintadireja, Prihadi [Laboratory of Volcanology and Geothermal, Geology Department, Institute of Technology Bandung (ITB), Bandung (Indonesia)

    2008-06-15

    Conceptual modeling and predictive mapping of potential for geothermal resources at the regional-scale in West Java are supported by analysis of the spatial distribution of geothermal prospects and thermal springs, and their spatial associations with geologic features derived from publicly available regional-scale spatial data sets. Fry analysis shows that geothermal occurrences have regional-scale spatial distributions that are related to Quaternary volcanic centers and shallow earthquake epicenters. Spatial frequency distribution analysis shows that geothermal occurrences have strong positive spatial associations with Quaternary volcanic centers, Quaternary volcanic rocks, quasi-gravity lows, and NE-, NNW-, WNW-trending faults. These geological features, with their strong positive spatial associations with geothermal occurrences, constitute spatial recognition criteria of regional-scale geothermal potential in a study area. Application of data-driven evidential belief functions in GIS-based predictive mapping of regional-scale geothermal potential resulted in delineation of high potential zones occupying 25% of West Java, which is a substantial reduction of the search area for further exploration of geothermal resources. The predicted high potential zones delineate about 53-58% of the training geothermal areas and 94% of the validated geothermal occurrences. The results of this study demonstrate the value of regional-scale geothermal potential mapping in: (a) data-poor situations, such as West Java, and (b) regions with geotectonic environments similar to the study area. (author)

  16. Soil organic matter change - analysis on a regional scale of Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruendling, Ralf; Franko, Uwe; Sedy, Katrin; Freudenschuß, Alexandra; Spiegel, Adelheid; Formayer, Herbert

    2014-05-01

    Soil organic matter (SOM) is an important resource in agriculture. It influences soil fertility, erosion processes and prevents soil degradation. However, SOM is strongly affected by climate change, soil conditions and management alterations. The presented study analyzes SOM changes in Austria on a regional scale in the "Marchfeld" and the "Muehlviertel". For quantification these SOM changes the model CCB (Candy Carbon Balance) was used. Based on a 1 square kilometer raster, the impact of specific site conditions on SOM are determined to characterize the study areas. Used as a main indicator for these conditions is the biologic active time (BAT). BAT describes the biologic activity for carbon cycling in top soils depending on soil and climatic conditions. High values of BAT indicate fast SOM reproduction rates. Hence, BAT changes over last years signpost the risk of SOM loss and can be used as an on-farm decision tool. The change of risks of SOM loss due to climate change is assessed by model results. Therefore, three climate scenarios are used to compute reproduction rates of SOM. "High risk-regions" can be identified for policy consulting. Different climate scenarios can help to develop best case and worst case results. First results show that the region "Marchfeld" had a higher change in BAT during last 2 decades comparing to the "Muehlviertel". A higher risk of SOM loosing is evident. Nevertheless, future scenarios predict a higher change of BAT for the "Muehlviertel". Apparently, the sensitivity of "Marchfeld" sites regard to climate change has been higher in the past and most BAT changes took place until now. With this method an evaluation of farm management in regard to SOM reproduction and recommendation of crop rotations for the future are possible. In conclusion, the aim of the project is a tool box for farmers and policy makers to evaluate present and future agricultural management. An examination of additional regions in Austria is planned.

  17. Hydrogeochemical characterization of groundwater in the Outaouais Region (Québec, Canada) - A regional scale study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montcoudiol, N.; Molson, J. W.; Lemieux, J.

    2013-12-01

    As part of the Québec regional groundwater characterization program (PACES), a detailed groundwater quality survey was undertaken in the Outaouais Region (Québec, Canada). During the summers of 2011 and 2012, 139 samples were taken from municipal and private wells which were analysed for major ions, nutrients, metals and sulphides. About 70% of the samples were obtained from bedrock wells, mainly in the Canadian Shield and the remainder from wells screened in Quaternary deposit aquifers. Hydrogeochemical facies were determined for 127 samples which had anion-cation charge balance errors within ×10 %. Ca-HCO3 is the dominant water type (65%) which was mainly found in unconfined aquifers, especially Quaternary deposits, and is typical of recently infiltrated rainwater. Other relevant water types are Na-HCO3 and Na-Cl (17 and 6% respectively), characteristic of confined aquifers. This classification by water type is supported by multivariate statistical analysis, namely Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Hierarchical Clustering Analysis (HCA). PCA allows the identification of three factors controlling groundwater chemistry: salinity, silicate dissolution and F-bearing mineral dissolution. HCA results show that the samples can be grouped into seven clusters. Clusters 1 to 4 are mostly Ca-HCO3 water type and are representative of the enrichment in major ions due to carbonate and silicate dissolution, cluster 1 being closer to rainwater and cluster 4 the most evolved. Cluster 5, made of one sample with a particular chemistry, is not yet fully understood. Samples from cluster 6 present various degrees of Na-Ca exchange, a consequence of remnant Champlain Sea water (some samples from cluster 7 in confined zones) being replaced by infiltrating recharge water. Samples from cluster 7 are evolved waters with high Total Dissolved Solid (TDS) concentrations: they are remnants of the Champlain Sea in confined aquifers (bromide detected) or diluted/mixed by infiltrating

  18. Estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere due to time mean currents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roble, R.G.; Matsushita, S.

    1975-01-01

    An estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere is made based on derived global equivalent overhead electric current systems in the dynamo region during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods. The equivalent total electric field distribution is calculated from Ohm's law. The global-scale joule heating rates are calculated for various monthly average periods in 1965. The calculated joule heating rates maximize at high latitudes in the early evening and postmidnight sectors. During geomagnetically quiet times the daytime joule heating rates are considerably lower than heating by solar EUV radiation. However, during geomagnetically disturbed periods the estimated joule heating rates increase by an order of magnitude and can locally exceed the solar EUV heating rates. The results show that joule heating is an important and at times the dominant energy source at high latitudes. However, the global mean joule heating rates calculated near solar minimum are generally small compared to the global mean solar EUV heating rates. (auth)

  19. Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Phipps, Steven J.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Davin, Edouard L.; Donat, Markus G.; Hirschi, Martin; Lenton, Andrew; Wilhelm, Micah; Kravitz, Ben

    2018-02-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions urgently need to be reduced. Even with a step up in mitigation, the goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 °C remains challenging. Consequences of missing these goals are substantial, especially on regional scales. Because progress in the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions has been slow, climate engineering schemes are increasingly being discussed. But global schemes remain controversial and have important shortcomings. A reduction of global mean temperature through global-scale management of solar radiation could lead to strong regional disparities and affect rainfall patterns. On the other hand, active management of land radiative effects on a regional scale represents an alternative option of climate engineering that has been little discussed. Regional land radiative management could help to counteract warming, in particular hot extremes in densely populated and important agricultural regions. Regional land radiative management also raises some ethical issues, and its efficacy would be limited in time and space, depending on crop growing periods and constraints on agricultural management. But through its more regional focus and reliance on tested techniques, regional land radiative management avoids some of the main shortcomings associated with global radiation management. We argue that albedo-related climate benefits of land management should be considered more prominently when assessing regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation as well as ecosystem services.

  20. Biogeography of Deep-sea benthic bacteria at regional scale (LTER HAUSGARTEN, Fram Strait, Arctic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marianne Jacob

    Full Text Available Knowledge on spatial scales of the distribution of deep-sea life is still sparse, but highly relevant to the understanding of dispersal, habitat ranges and ecological processes. We examined regional spatial distribution patterns of the benthic bacterial community and covarying environmental parameters such as water depth, biomass and energy availability at the Arctic Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER site HAUSGARTEN (Eastern Fram Strait. Samples from 13 stations were retrieved from a bathymetric (1,284-3,535 m water depth, 54 km in length and a latitudinal transect (∼ 2,500 m water depth; 123 km in length. 454 massively parallel tag sequencing (MPTS and automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis (ARISA were combined to describe both abundant and rare types shaping the bacterial community. This spatial sampling scheme allowed detection of up to 99% of the estimated richness on phylum and class levels. At the resolution of operational taxonomic units (97% sequence identity; OTU3% only 36% of the Chao1 estimated richness was recovered, indicating a high diversity, mostly due to rare types (62% of all OTU3%. Accordingly, a high turnover of the bacterial community was also observed between any two sampling stations (average replacement of 79% of OTU3%, yet no direct correlation with spatial distance was observed within the region. Bacterial community composition and structure differed significantly with increasing water depth along the bathymetric transect. The relative sequence abundance of Verrucomicrobia and Planctomycetes decreased significantly with water depth, and that of Deferribacteres increased. Energy availability, estimated from phytodetrital pigment concentrations in the sediments, partly explained the variation in community structure. Overall, this study indicates a high proportion of unique bacterial types on relatively small spatial scales (tens of kilometers, and supports the sampling design of the LTER site HAUSGARTEN to

  1. Interactions Between Atmospheric Aerosols and Marine Boundary Layer Clouds on Regional and Global Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhen

    Airborne aerosols are crucial atmospheric constituents that are involved in global climate change and human life qualities. Understanding the nature and magnitude of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions is critical in model predictions for atmospheric radiation budget and the water cycle. The interactions depend on a variety of factors including aerosol physicochemical complexity, cloud types, meteorological and thermodynamic regimes and data processing techniques. This PhD work is an effort to quantify the relationships among aerosol, clouds, and precipitation on both global and regional scales by using satellite retrievals and aircraft measurements. The first study examines spatial distributions of conversion rate of cloud water to rainwater in warm maritime clouds over the globe by using NASA A-Train satellite data. This study compares the time scale of the onset of precipitation with different aerosol categories defined by values of aerosol optical depth, fine mode fraction, and Angstrom Exponent. The results indicate that conversion time scales are actually quite sensitive to lower tropospheric static stability (LTSS) and cloud liquid water path (LWP), in addition to aerosol type. Analysis shows that tropical Pacific Ocean is dominated by the highest average conversion rate while subtropical warm cloud regions (far northeastern Pacific Ocean, far southeastern Pacific Ocean, Western Africa coastal area) exhibit the opposite result. Conversion times are mostly shorter for lower LTSS regimes. When LTSS condition is fixed, higher conversion rates coincide with higher LWP and lower aerosol index categories. After a general global view of physical property quantifications, the rest of the presented PhD studies is focused on regional airborne observations, especially bulk cloud water chemistry and aerosol aqueous-phase reactions during the summertime off the California coast. Local air mass origins are categorized into three distinct types (ocean, ships, and land

  2. Negative Symptom Dimensions of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale Across Geographical Regions: Implications for Social, Linguistic, and Cultural Consistency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Anzalee; Liharska, Lora; Harvey, Philip D; Atkins, Alexandra; Ulshen, Daniel; Keefe, Richard S E

    2017-12-01

    factors, but not the experiential factors, across regions. This could be due to a lack of equivalence between the original and translated versions, cultural differences with the interpretation of items, dissimilarities in rater training, or diversity in the understanding of scoring anchors. Knowing which items are challenging for raters across regions can help to guide Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale training and improve the results of international clinical trials aimed at negative symptoms.

  3. Impacts of different characterizations of large-scale background on simulated regional-scale ozone over the continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogrefe, Christian; Liu, Peng; Pouliot, George; Mathur, Rohit; Roselle, Shawn; Flemming, Johannes; Lin, Meiyun; Park, Rokjin J.

    2018-03-01

    This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boundary conditions derived from hemispheric or global-scale models. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations supporting this analysis were performed over the continental US for the year 2010 within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP) activities. CMAQ process analysis (PA) results highlight the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection on the ozone burden in the mid-to-upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Vertical mixing, including mixing by convective clouds, couples fluctuations in free-tropospheric ozone to ozone in lower layers. Hypothetical bounding scenarios were performed to quantify the effects of emissions, boundary conditions, and ozone dry deposition on the simulated ozone burden. Analysis of these simulations confirms that the characterization of ozone outside the regional-scale modeling domain can have a profound impact on simulated regional-scale ozone. This was further investigated by using data from four hemispheric or global modeling systems (Chemistry - Integrated Forecasting Model (C-IFS), CMAQ extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ), the Goddard Earth Observing System model coupled to chemistry (GEOS-Chem), and AM3) to derive alternate boundary conditions for the regional-scale CMAQ simulations. The regional-scale CMAQ simulations using these four different boundary conditions showed that the largest ozone abundance in the upper layers was simulated when using boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, followed by the simulations using C-IFS, AM3, and H-CMAQ boundary conditions, consistent with the analysis of the ozone fields

  4. Nuclear analytical techniques applied to the large scale measurements of atmospheric aerosols in the amazon region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerab, Fabio

    1996-03-01

    This work presents the characterization of the atmosphere aerosol collected in different places of the Amazon Basin. We studied both the biogenic emission from the forest and the particulate material which is emitted to the atmosphere due to the large scale man-made burning during the dry season. The samples were collected during a three year period at two different locations in the Amazon, namely the Alta Floresta (MT) and Serra do Navio (AP) regions, using stacked unit filters. These regions represent two different atmospheric compositions: the aerosol is dominated by the forest natural biogenic emission at Serra do Navio, while at Alta Floresta it presents an important contribution from the man-made burning during the dry season. At Alta Floresta we took samples in gold in order to characterize mercury emission to the atmosphere related to the gold prospection activity in Amazon. Airplanes were used for aerosol sampling during the 1992 and 1993 dry seasons to characterize the atmospheric aerosol contents from man-made burning in large Amazonian areas. The samples were analyzed using several nuclear analytic techniques: Particle Induced X-ray Emission for the quantitative analysis of trace elements with atomic number above 11; Particle Induced Gamma-ray Emission for the quantitative analysis of Na; and Proton Microprobe was used for the characterization of individual particles of the aerosol. Reflectancy technique was used in the black carbon quantification, gravimetric analysis to determine the total atmospheric aerosol concentration and Cold Vapor Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy for quantitative analysis of mercury in the particulate from the Alta Floresta gold shops. Ionic chromatography was used to quantify ionic contents of aerosols from the fine mode particulate samples from Serra do Navio. Multivariate statistical analysis was used in order to identify and characterize the sources of the atmospheric aerosol present in the sampled regions. (author)

  5. Study on the stress changes due to the regional groundwater exploitation based on a 3-D fully coupled poroelastic model: An example of the North China Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, H.; Zhang, H.; Pang, Y. J.; Shi, Y.

    2017-12-01

    With the quick urban development, over-exploitation of groundwater resources becomes more and more intense, which leads to not only widespread groundwater depression cones but also a series of harsh environmental and geological hazards. Among which, the most intuitive phenomenon is the ground subsidence in loose sediments. However, another direct consequence triggered by the groundwater depletion is the substantial crustal deformation and potential modulation of crustal stress underneath the groundwater over-pumping zones. In our previous 3-D viscoelastic finite element model, we found that continuous over-exploitation of groundwater resources in North China Plain during the past 60 years give rise to crustal-scale uplift reaching 4.9cm, with the Coulomb failure stress decreasing by up to 12 kPa, which may inhibit the nucleation of possible big earthquake events. Furthermore, according to the effective pressure principle and lab experiments, the pore pressure may also have changed due to the reduced water level. In order to quantitatively analyze the stress changes due to the regional groundwater exploitation in North China Plain, a three-dimensional fully coupled poroelastic finite element model is developed in this study. The high resolution topography, grounwater level fluctuation, fault parameters and etc, are taken into consideration. Further, the changes of Coulomb Failure Stress, in correspondence to elastic stress and pore pressure changes induced by fluid diffusion are calculated. Meanwhile, the elastic strain energy accumulation in region due to the regional groundwater exploitation is obtained. Finally, we try to analyze the seismic risk of major faults within North China Plain to further discuss the regional seismic activities.

  6. Toward the Development of a Cold Regions Regional-Scale Hydrologic Model, Final Project Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinzman, Larry D [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Bolton, William Robert [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Young-Robertson, Jessica (Cable) [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2018-01-02

    This project improves meso-scale hydrologic modeling in the boreal forest by: (1) demonstrating the importance of capturing the heterogeneity of the landscape using small scale datasets for parameterization for both small and large basins; (2) demonstrating that in drier parts of the landscape and as the boreal forest dries with climate change, modeling approaches must consider the sensitivity of simulations to soil hydraulic parameters - such as residual water content - that are usually held constant. Thus, variability / flexibility in residual water content must be considered for accurate simulation of hydrologic processes in the boreal forest; (3) demonstrating that assessing climate change impacts on boreal forest hydrology through multiple model integration must account for direct effects of climate change (temperature and precipitation), and indirect effects from climate impacts on landscape characteristics (permafrost and vegetation distribution). Simulations demonstrated that climate change will increase runoff, but will increase ET to a greater extent and result in a drying of the landscape; and (4) vegetation plays a significant role in boreal hydrologic processes in permafrost free areas that have deciduous trees. This landscape type results in a decoupling of ET and precipitation, a tight coupling of ET and temperature, low runoff, and overall soil drying.

  7. Validating a continental-scale groundwater diffuse pollution model using regional datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouedraogo, Issoufou; Defourny, Pierre; Vanclooster, Marnik

    2017-12-11

    In this study, we assess the validity of an African-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrates. In a previous study, we identified a statistical continental-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrate. The model was identified using a pan-African meta-analysis of available nitrate groundwater pollution studies. The model was implemented in both Random Forest (RF) and multiple regression formats. For both approaches, we collected as predictors a comprehensive GIS database of 13 spatial attributes, related to land use, soil type, hydrogeology, topography, climatology, region typology, nitrogen fertiliser application rate, and population density. In this paper, we validate the continental-scale model of groundwater contamination by using a nitrate measurement dataset from three African countries. We discuss the issue of data availability, and quality and scale issues, as challenges in validation. Notwithstanding that the modelling procedure exhibited very good success using a continental-scale dataset (e.g. R 2  = 0.97 in the RF format using a cross-validation approach), the continental-scale model could not be used without recalibration to predict nitrate pollution at the country scale using regional data. In addition, when recalibrating the model using country-scale datasets, the order of model exploratory factors changes. This suggests that the structure and the parameters of a statistical spatially distributed groundwater degradation model for the African continent are strongly scale dependent.

  8. Multiscale structure of Cs-137 soil contamination on the Bryansk Region (Russia) due to the accident at the Chernobyl NPP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linnik, Vitaly; Sokolov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    The Cs-137 contamination of the Bryansk Region occurred in the period from April 27 to May 10 into several stages. The complicated character of the soil radionuclide contamination on the Bryansk Region is caused by different nature of the radioactive fallout: dry and wet. Thus, in a number of cases Cs-137 soil pollution is directly connected with the rain intensity, which is well known, have multifractal nature. In some parts of contaminated territory the overlay of different types of fallout was observed. The radioactive contamination of the landscape is a result from nonlinear interplay of geophysical factors which intervene over a large range of scale. As a result of the fallout Cs-137 pattern can be described as a multifractal. Consequently, fields of contamination observed have an extreme spatial variability, frequently cited "hot spots" or "leopard's skin. As an estimate of background radiation levels, we relied on a dataset of air-gamma-survey of the Bryansk Region, carried out by SSC AEROGEOFIZIKA in the summer of 1993. This dataset includes geo-positioned data of Cs-137 deposition in a grid of 100x100 m with values range from 3 to 11*104 kBq/m2. Airborne gamma survey gave the smoothed values of the Cs-137 density of contamination in comparison with the data, obtained directly as a result of soil sampling. However, even in this case in the east part of the Bryansk test site we can observed the"hot spots" (by size several hundred meters) as natural phenomenon. The article presents the results of the geostatistical and multifractal analysis of the Cs-137 contamination. Scaling analysis was conducted to investigate the linkages between the spatial variability of soil Cs-137 contamination and some landscape characteristics.

  9. Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

  10. Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Horton

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM. The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time

  11. Causal inference between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors in a large-scale region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yuqiong; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Qi; Yu, Huanyun; Liu, Jianfeng; Tian, Yu; Chang, Chunying; Lei, Jing

    2017-01-01

    The causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors are generally obtained from field experiments at local scales at present, and lack sufficient evidence from large scales. However, inferring causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions is challenging. Because the conventional correlation-based approaches used for causation assessments across large-scale regions, at the expense of actual causation, can result in spurious insights. In this study, a general approach framework, Intervention calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (IDA) combined with the backdoor criterion (BC), was introduced to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and the potential environmental factors across large-scale regions. We take the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China as a case study. The causal structures and effects were identified based on the concentrations of heavy metals (Zn, As, Cu, Hg, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd) in soil (0–20 cm depth) and vegetable (lettuce) and 40 environmental factors (soil properties, extractable heavy metals and weathering indices) in 94 samples across the PRD. Results show that the bioavailability of heavy metals (Cd, Zn, Cr, Ni and As) was causally influenced by soil properties and soil weathering factors, whereas no causal factor impacted the bioavailability of Cu, Hg and Pb. No latent factor was found between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors. The causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors at field experiments is consistent with that on a large scale. The IDA combined with the BC provides a powerful tool to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions. Causal inference in a large system with the dynamic changes has great implications for system-based risk management. - Causation between the

  12. Quantitative regional validation of the visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, Christiane; Benedictus, Marije R.; Koedam, Esther L.G.M.; Scheltens, Philip; Flier, Wiesje M. van der; Versteeg, Adriaan; Wattjes, Mike P.; Barkhof, Frederik; Vrenken, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    Validate the four-point visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) on magnetic resonance images (MRI) through quantitative grey matter (GM) volumetry and voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to justify its use in clinical practice. Two hundred twenty-nine patients with probable Alzheimer's disease and 128 with subjective memory complaints underwent 3T MRI. PCA was rated according to the visual rating scale. GM volumes of six posterior structures and the total posterior region were extracted using IBASPM and compared among PCA groups. To determine which anatomical regions contributed most to the visual scores, we used binary logistic regression. VBM compared local GM density among groups. Patients were categorised according to their PCA scores: PCA-0 (n = 122), PCA-1 (n = 143), PCA-2 (n = 79), and PCA-3 (n = 13). All structures except the posterior cingulate differed significantly among groups. The inferior parietal gyrus volume discriminated the most between rating scale levels. VBM showed that PCA-1 had a lower GM volume than PCA-0 in the parietal region and other brain regions, whereas between PCA-1 and PCA-2/3 GM atrophy was mostly restricted to posterior regions. The visual PCA rating scale is quantitatively validated and reliably reflects GM atrophy in parietal regions, making it a valuable tool for the daily radiological assessment of dementia. (orig.)

  13. Quantitative regional validation of the visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeller, Christiane; Benedictus, Marije R.; Koedam, Esther L.G.M.; Scheltens, Philip [VU University Medical Center, Alzheimer Center and Department of Neurology, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Flier, Wiesje M. van der [VU University Medical Center, Alzheimer Center and Department of Neurology, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); VU University Medical Center, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Versteeg, Adriaan; Wattjes, Mike P.; Barkhof, Frederik [VU University Medical Center, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Vrenken, Hugo [VU University Medical Center, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); VU University Medical Center, Department of Physics and Medical Technology, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2014-02-15

    Validate the four-point visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) on magnetic resonance images (MRI) through quantitative grey matter (GM) volumetry and voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to justify its use in clinical practice. Two hundred twenty-nine patients with probable Alzheimer's disease and 128 with subjective memory complaints underwent 3T MRI. PCA was rated according to the visual rating scale. GM volumes of six posterior structures and the total posterior region were extracted using IBASPM and compared among PCA groups. To determine which anatomical regions contributed most to the visual scores, we used binary logistic regression. VBM compared local GM density among groups. Patients were categorised according to their PCA scores: PCA-0 (n = 122), PCA-1 (n = 143), PCA-2 (n = 79), and PCA-3 (n = 13). All structures except the posterior cingulate differed significantly among groups. The inferior parietal gyrus volume discriminated the most between rating scale levels. VBM showed that PCA-1 had a lower GM volume than PCA-0 in the parietal region and other brain regions, whereas between PCA-1 and PCA-2/3 GM atrophy was mostly restricted to posterior regions. The visual PCA rating scale is quantitatively validated and reliably reflects GM atrophy in parietal regions, making it a valuable tool for the daily radiological assessment of dementia. (orig.)

  14. A REGION-BASED MULTI-SCALE APPROACH FOR OBJECT-BASED IMAGE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Kavzoglu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Within the last two decades, object-based image analysis (OBIA considering objects (i.e. groups of pixels instead of pixels has gained popularity and attracted increasing interest. The most important stage of the OBIA is image segmentation that groups spectrally similar adjacent pixels considering not only the spectral features but also spatial and textural features. Although there are several parameters (scale, shape, compactness and band weights to be set by the analyst, scale parameter stands out the most important parameter in segmentation process. Estimating optimal scale parameter is crucially important to increase the classification accuracy that depends on image resolution, image object size and characteristics of the study area. In this study, two scale-selection strategies were implemented in the image segmentation process using pan-sharped Qickbird-2 image. The first strategy estimates optimal scale parameters for the eight sub-regions. For this purpose, the local variance/rate of change (LV-RoC graphs produced by the ESP-2 tool were analysed to determine fine, moderate and coarse scales for each region. In the second strategy, the image was segmented using the three candidate scale values (fine, moderate, coarse determined from the LV-RoC graph calculated for whole image. The nearest neighbour classifier was applied in all segmentation experiments and equal number of pixels was randomly selected to calculate accuracy metrics (overall accuracy and kappa coefficient. Comparison of region-based and image-based segmentation was carried out on the classified images and found that region-based multi-scale OBIA produced significantly more accurate results than image-based single-scale OBIA. The difference in classification accuracy reached to 10% in terms of overall accuracy.

  15. The Influence of Large-Scale Circulation on Fire Outbreaks in the Amazon Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, L. B. M.; Romao, M.; Freitas, A. C. V.

    2017-12-01

    The combination of alterations in land use cover and severe droughts may dramatically increase fire outbreaks. Tropical convection in the Amazon Basin is regulated mainly by large-scale atmospheric systems such as the Walker circulation. Many of the documented drought episodes in the Amazon occurred during intense El Niño events such as those recorded in 1926, 1983, 1997-1998, and 2010. However, not all El Niño events are related to drought in the Amazon. Recent studies have also pointed out the importance of the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the modulation of the Amazonian climate, as observed during the drought episodes in 2005 and 2010. This work investigates the fire outbreak tendency in the Amazon region, and the influence of large-scale circulation on these events. Data from the Fire Program of the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE) show a substantial increase in the number of fire outbreaks in the last few years, especially during 2016. However, in the 2017 year a sharp drop in fire outbreaks reaching levels similar to the years prior to 2016 is being noted, already showing a reduction of 54% in relation to the preceding 2016 year. The 2015-2016 period was marked by one of the strongest El Niño in history. This was reflected in the increase of the number of fire outbreaks due to the increase of the drought and temperature elevation period. On the other hand, the 2017 year is being characterized by a condition of neutrality in relation to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, and have overall presented positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. Variations of these systems and their relation to fire outbreaks is demonstrated.

  16. A triple-scale crystal plasticity modeling and simulation on size effect due to fine-graining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurosawa, Eisuke; Aoyagi, Yoshiteru; Tadano, Yuichi; Shizawa, Kazuyuki

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, a triple-scale crystal plasticity model bridging three hierarchical material structures, i.e., dislocation structure, grain aggregate and practical macroscopic structure is developed. Geometrically necessary (GN) dislocation density and GN incompatibility are employed so as to describe isolated dislocations and dislocation pairs in a grain, respectively. Then the homogenization method is introduced into the GN dislocation-crystal plasticity model for derivation of the governing equation of macroscopic structure with the mathematical and physical consistencies. Using the present model, a triple-scale FE simulation bridging the above three hierarchical structures is carried out for f.c.c. polycrystals with different mean grain size. It is shown that the present model can qualitatively reproduce size effects of macroscopic specimen with ultrafine-grain, i.e., the increase of initial yield stress, the decrease of hardening ratio after reaching tensile strength and the reduction of tensile ductility with decrease of its grain size. Moreover, the relationship between macroscopic yielding of specimen and microscopic grain yielding is discussed and the mechanism of the poor tensile ductility due to fine-graining is clarified. (author)

  17. Biodiversity and Land uses at a regional scale: Is agriculture the biggest threat for reptile assemblages?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Raquel; Santos, Xavier; Sillero, Neftali; Carretero, Miguel A.; Llorente, Gustavo A.

    2009-03-01

    The human exploitation of land resources (land use) has been considered the major factor responsible for changes in biodiversity within terrestrial ecosystems given that it affects directly the distribution of the fauna. Reptiles are known to be particularly sensitive to habitat change due to their ecological constraints. Here, the impact of land use on reptile diversity was analysed, choosing Catalonia (NE Iberia) as a case study. This region provides a suitable scenario for such a biogeographical study since it harbours: 1) a rich reptile fauna; 2) a highly diverse environment showing strong variation in those variables usually shaping reptile distributions; and 3) good species distribution data. Potential species richness was calculated, using ecological modelling techniques (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis - ENFA). The subtraction of the observed from the potential species richness was the dependent variable in a backwards multiple linear regression, using land use variables. Agriculture was the land use with the strongest relation with the non-fulfilment of the potential species richness, indicating a trend towards a deficit of biodiversity. Deciduous forest was the only land use negatively related with the subtracted species richness. Results indicate a clear relationship between land use and biodiversity at a mesoscale. This finding represents an important baseline for conservation guidelines within the habitat change framework because it has been achieved at the same spatial scale of chorological studies and management policies.

  18. A methodology for the assessment of flood hazards at the regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Semenzin, Elena; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, the frequency of water-related disasters has increased and recent flood events in Europe (e.g. 2002 in Central Europe, 2007 in UK, 2010 in Italy) caused physical-environmental and socio-economic damages. Specifically, floods are the most threatening water-related disaster that affects humans, their lives and properties. Within the KULTURisk project (FP7) a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology is proposed to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The method is based on the KULTURisk framework and allows the identification and prioritization of targets (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritages) and areas at risk from floods in the considered region by comparing the baseline scenario (i.e. current state) with alternative scenarios (i.e. where different structural and/or non-structural measures are planned). The RRA methodology is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The final aim of RRA is to help decision-makers in examining the possible environmental risks associated with uncertain future flood hazards and in identifying which prevention scenario could be the most suitable one. The RRA methodology employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA functions) in order to integrate stakeholder preferences and experts judgments into the analysis. Moreover, Geographic Information Systems (GISs) are used to manage, process, analyze, and map data to facilitate the analysis and the information sharing with different experts and stakeholders. In order to characterize flood risks, the proposed methodology integrates the output of hydrodynamic models with the analysis of site-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope of the territory, land cover

  19. Revisiting the contemporary sea-level budget on global and regional scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rietbroek, Roelof; Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Kusche, Jürgen; Schröter, Jens; Dahle, Christoph

    2016-02-09

    Dividing the sea-level budget into contributions from ice sheets and glaciers, the water cycle, steric expansion, and crustal movement is challenging, especially on regional scales. Here, Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity observations and sea-level anomalies from altimetry are used in a joint inversion, ensuring a consistent decomposition of the global and regional sea-level rise budget. Over the years 2002-2014, we find a global mean steric trend of 1.38 ± 0.16 mm/y, compared with a total trend of 2.74 ± 0.58 mm/y. This is significantly larger than steric trends derived from in situ temperature/salinity profiles and models which range from 0.66 ± 0.2 to 0.94 ± 0.1 mm/y. Mass contributions from ice sheets and glaciers (1.37 ± 0.09 mm/y, accelerating with 0.03 ± 0.02 mm/y(2)) are offset by a negative hydrological component (-0.29 ± 0.26 mm/y). The combined mass rate (1.08 ± 0.3 mm/y) is smaller than previous GRACE estimates (up to 2 mm/y), but it is consistent with the sum of individual contributions (ice sheets, glaciers, and hydrology) found in literature. The altimetric sea-level budget is closed by coestimating a remaining component of 0.22 ± 0.26 mm/y. Well above average sea-level rise is found regionally near the Philippines (14.7 ± 4.39 mm/y) and Indonesia (8.3 ± 4.7 mm/y) which is dominated by steric components (11.2 ± 3.58 mm/y and 6.4 ± 3.18 mm/y, respectively). In contrast, in the central and Eastern part of the Pacific, negative steric trends (down to -2.8 ± 1.53 mm/y) are detected. Significant regional components are found, up to 5.3 ± 2.6 mm/y in the northwest Atlantic, which are likely due to ocean bottom pressure variations.

  20. Evaluation of organ dose and estimation of risk due to the abdominal region radiography in Indian adults

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumaresan, M.; Chaubey, Ajay; Kantharia, Surita; Karira, V.; Kumar, Rajesh; Biju, K.; Rao, B.S.

    2006-01-01

    Organ dose, risk of carcinogenesis and genetic effect due to the abdominal region radiography in Indian adult with the help of Monte-Carlo MCNP code by measuring the entrance skin dose by LiF: Mg, Cu, P TL phosphor and the risk coefficients provided by ICRP 60 were estimated. The entrance skin dose for abdominal region radiography was ranges from 2.75 mSv to 18.88 mSv while average entrance skin dose was 8.3 mSv. The bladder, testes and ovary are the important organ those are getting higher dose. The maximum dose for testes, ovary and bladder is 5.37 mSv, 1.45 mSv and 4.74 mSv respectively. The frequency of occurrence of fatal cancers and serious genetic disorders as a consequence of abdominal region radiography ranges from 0.1 to 38.8 risk/10 6 of fatal cancer. Although the estimated risks are small but cannot be neglected. It is important to avoid unnecessary repetitions and also to carry out proper quality assurance tests on the equipment and in the long run it will help reduce the risks and maximize the benefits of radiodiagnosis. These studies may lead to setting up of national reference levels for the diagnostic procedures India. (author)

  1. Scaled parametric equation of state for steam in the critical region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, T.A.; Sengers, J.V.

    1975-01-01

    The anomalous thermodynamic behavior of fluids near the critical point can be described in terms of scaling laws. In recent years a parametric equation of state, the so-called Linear Model, has been proposed that satisfies the scaling laws and contains only a small number of adjustable parameters. It is shown that the Linear Model yields a satisfactory representation of the experimental P-V-T data for steam in the critical region. (29 references)

  2. Schooling and wage income losses due to early-childhood growth faltering in developing countries: national, regional, and global estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fink, Günther; Peet, Evan; Danaei, Goodarz; Andrews, Kathryn; McCoy, Dana Charles; Sudfeld, Christopher R; Smith Fawzi, Mary C; Ezzati, Majid; Fawzi, Wafaie W

    2016-07-01

    The growth of >300 million children purchasing power parity-adjusted exchange rates. At the regional level, economic costs were largest in South Asia ($46.6 billion; 95% CI: $33.3 billion, $61.1 billion), followed by Latin America ($44.7 billion; 95% CI: $19.2 billion, $74.6 billion) and sub-Saharan Africa ($34.2 billion; 95% CI: $24.4 billion, $45.3 billion). Our results indicate that the annual cost of early-childhood growth faltering is substantial. Further investment in scaling up effective interventions in this area is urgently needed and likely to yield long run benefits of $3 for every $1 invested. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

  3. Landscape-and regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Jacob S. Fraser; William D. Dijak

    2016-01-01

    Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating at multiple scales. Niche and biophysical process models have been commonly used to predict climate change effects at regional scales, however, these models have limited capability to include site-scale population dynamics and landscape- scale disturbance and dispersal. We applied a landscape...

  4. Insight on invasions and resilience derived from spatiotemporal discontinuities of biomass at local and regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Criag R.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the social and ecological consequences of species invasions is complicated by nonlinearities in processes, and differences in process and structure as scale is changed. Here we use discontinuity analyses to investigate nonlinear patterns in the distribution of biomass of an invasive nuisance species that could indicate scale-specific organization. We analyze biomass patterns in the flagellate Gonyostomum semen (Raphidophyta) in 75 boreal lakes during an 11-year period (1997-2007). With simulations using a unimodal null model and cluster analysis, we identified regional groupings of lakes based on their biomass patterns. We evaluated the variability of membership of individual lakes in regional biomass groups. Temporal trends in local and regional discontinuity patterns were analyzed using regressions and correlations with environmental variables that characterize nutrient conditions, acidity status, temperature variability, and water clarity. Regionally, there was a significant increase in the number of biomass groups over time, indicative of an increased number of scales at which algal biomass organizes across lakes. This increased complexity correlated with the invasion history of G. semen and broad-scale environmental change (recovery from acidification). Locally, no consistent patterns of lake membership to regional biomass groups were observed, and correlations with environmental variables were lake specific. The increased complexity of regional biomass patterns suggests that processes that act within or between scales reinforce the presence of G. semen and its potential to develop high-biomass blooms in boreal lakes. Emergent regional patterns combined with locally stochastic dynamics suggest a bleak future for managing G. semen, and more generally why invasive species can be ecologically successful.

  5. Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: remote versus local effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devaraju, N; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

    2015-03-17

    In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

  6. Size Scaling in Western North Atlantic Loggerhead Turtles Permits Extrapolation between Regions, but Not Life Stages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marn, Nina; Klanjscek, Tin; Stokes, Lesley; Jusup, Marko

    2015-01-01

    Sea turtles face threats globally and are protected by national and international laws. Allometry and scaling models greatly aid sea turtle conservation and research, and help to better understand the biology of sea turtles. Scaling, however, may differ between regions and/or life stages. We analyze differences between (i) two different regional subsets and (ii) three different life stage subsets of the western North Atlantic loggerhead turtles by comparing the relative growth of body width and depth in relation to body length, and discuss the implications. Results suggest that the differences between scaling relationships of different regional subsets are negligible, and models fitted on data from one region of the western North Atlantic can safely be used on data for the same life stage from another North Atlantic region. On the other hand, using models fitted on data for one life stage to describe other life stages is not recommended if accuracy is of paramount importance. In particular, young loggerhead turtles that have not recruited to neritic habitats should be studied and modeled separately whenever practical, while neritic juveniles and adults can be modeled together as one group. Even though morphometric scaling varies among life stages, a common model for all life stages can be used as a general description of scaling, and assuming isometric growth as a simplification is justified. In addition to linear models traditionally used for scaling on log-log axes, we test the performance of a saturating (curvilinear) model. The saturating model is statistically preferred in some cases, but the accuracy gained by the saturating model is marginal.

  7. Size Scaling in Western North Atlantic Loggerhead Turtles Permits Extrapolation between Regions, but Not Life Stages.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Marn

    Full Text Available Sea turtles face threats globally and are protected by national and international laws. Allometry and scaling models greatly aid sea turtle conservation and research, and help to better understand the biology of sea turtles. Scaling, however, may differ between regions and/or life stages. We analyze differences between (i two different regional subsets and (ii three different life stage subsets of the western North Atlantic loggerhead turtles by comparing the relative growth of body width and depth in relation to body length, and discuss the implications.Results suggest that the differences between scaling relationships of different regional subsets are negligible, and models fitted on data from one region of the western North Atlantic can safely be used on data for the same life stage from another North Atlantic region. On the other hand, using models fitted on data for one life stage to describe other life stages is not recommended if accuracy is of paramount importance. In particular, young loggerhead turtles that have not recruited to neritic habitats should be studied and modeled separately whenever practical, while neritic juveniles and adults can be modeled together as one group. Even though morphometric scaling varies among life stages, a common model for all life stages can be used as a general description of scaling, and assuming isometric growth as a simplification is justified. In addition to linear models traditionally used for scaling on log-log axes, we test the performance of a saturating (curvilinear model. The saturating model is statistically preferred in some cases, but the accuracy gained by the saturating model is marginal.

  8. A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Gordon C.; Dickens, Chris; Hines, Eleanor; Wepener, Victor; Stassen, Retha; Quayle, Leo; Fouchy, Kelly; MacKenzie, James; Graham, P. Mark; Landis, Wayne G.

    2018-02-01

    Environmental flow (E-flow) frameworks advocate holistic, regional-scale, probabilistic E-flow assessments that consider flow and non-flow drivers of change in a socio-ecological context as best practice. Regional-scale ecological risk assessments of multiple stressors to social and ecological endpoints, which address ecosystem dynamism, have been undertaken internationally at different spatial scales using the relative-risk model since the mid-1990s. With the recent incorporation of Bayesian belief networks into the relative-risk model, a robust regional-scale ecological risk assessment approach is available that can contribute to achieving the best practice recommendations of E-flow frameworks. PROBFLO is a holistic E-flow assessment method that incorporates the relative-risk model and Bayesian belief networks (BN-RRM) into a transparent probabilistic modelling tool that addresses uncertainty explicitly. PROBFLO has been developed to evaluate the socio-ecological consequences of historical, current and future water resource use scenarios and generate E-flow requirements on regional spatial scales. The approach has been implemented in two regional-scale case studies in Africa where its flexibility and functionality has been demonstrated. In both case studies the evidence-based outcomes facilitated informed environmental management decision making, with trade-off considerations in the context of social and ecological aspirations. This paper presents the PROBFLO approach as applied to the Senqu River catchment in Lesotho and further developments and application in the Mara River catchment in Kenya and Tanzania. The 10 BN-RRM procedural steps incorporated in PROBFLO are demonstrated with examples from both case studies. PROBFLO can contribute to the adaptive management of water resources and contribute to the allocation of resources for sustainable use of resources and address protection requirements.

  9. Causal inference between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors in a large-scale region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yuqiong; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Qi; Yu, Huanyun; Liu, Jianfeng; Tian, Yu; Chang, Chunying; Lei, Jing

    2017-07-01

    The causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors are generally obtained from field experiments at local scales at present, and lack sufficient evidence from large scales. However, inferring causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions is challenging. Because the conventional correlation-based approaches used for causation assessments across large-scale regions, at the expense of actual causation, can result in spurious insights. In this study, a general approach framework, Intervention calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (IDA) combined with the backdoor criterion (BC), was introduced to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and the potential environmental factors across large-scale regions. We take the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China as a case study. The causal structures and effects were identified based on the concentrations of heavy metals (Zn, As, Cu, Hg, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd) in soil (0-20 cm depth) and vegetable (lettuce) and 40 environmental factors (soil properties, extractable heavy metals and weathering indices) in 94 samples across the PRD. Results show that the bioavailability of heavy metals (Cd, Zn, Cr, Ni and As) was causally influenced by soil properties and soil weathering factors, whereas no causal factor impacted the bioavailability of Cu, Hg and Pb. No latent factor was found between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors. The causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors at field experiments is consistent with that on a large scale. The IDA combined with the BC provides a powerful tool to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions. Causal inference in a large system with the dynamic changes has great implications for system-based risk management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All

  10. Seasonal Variability in Regional Ice Flow Due to Meltwater Injection Into the Shear Margins of Jakobshavn Isbræ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavanagh, J. P.; Lampkin, D. J.; Moon, T.

    2017-12-01

    The impact of meltwater injection into the shear margins of Jakobshavn Isbræ via drainage from water-filled crevasses on ice flow is examined. We use Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager panchromatic, high-resolution imagery to monitor the spatiotemporal variability of seven water-filled crevasse ponds during the summers of 2013 to 2015. The timing of drainage from water-filled crevasses coincides with an increase of 2 to 20% in measured ice velocity beyond Jakobshavn Isbræ shear margins, which we define as extramarginal ice velocity. Some water-filled crevasse groups demonstrate multiple drainage events within a single melt season. Numerical simulations show that hydrologic shear weakening due to water-filled crevasse drainage can accelerate extramarginal flow by as much as 35% within 10 km of the margins and enhance mass flux through the shear margins by 12%. This work demonstrates a novel mechanism through which surface melt can influence regional ice flow.

  11. Hazard assessment due to falling stones on a reach of the regional road in the Trenta valley, Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urška Petje

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the new Slovenian methodology for determining hazard areas and the classification of land parcels into hazard classes due to land slides and rock falls, a pilot project was carried out on the regional road between Bovec and Vr{i~ pass in theTrenta valley. For this around 20 km long road in a typical alpine environment, a hazard assessment of falling rocks was carried out, even tough the road also passes through snow avalanches hazard areas. The performed hazard assessment of falling rocks is based onan expert knowledge taking into account the field mapping, and classifies the road into three hazard classes: 9811 m is classified into the low hazard class, 7233 m is classifiedinto the medium hazard class, and 1301 m is classified into high hazard class of falling rocks.

  12. Probabilistic modelling and uncertainty analysis of flux and water balance changes in a regional aquifer system due to coal seam gas development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreekanth, J; Cui, Tao; Pickett, Trevor; Rassam, David; Gilfedder, Mat; Barrett, Damian

    2018-09-01

    Large scale development of coal seam gas (CSG) is occurring in many sedimentary basins around the world including Australia, where commercial production of CSG has started in the Surat and Bowen basins. CSG development often involves extraction of large volumes of water that results in depressurising aquifers that overlie and/or underlie the coal seams thus perturbing their flow regimes. This can potentially impact regional aquifer systems that are used for many purposes such as irrigation, and stock and domestic water. In this study, we adopt a probabilistic approach to quantify the depressurisation of the Gunnedah coal seams and how this impacts fluxes to, and from the overlying Great Artesian Basin (GAB) Pilliga Sandstone aquifer. The proposed method is suitable when effects of a new resource development activity on the regional groundwater balance needs to be assessed and account for large scale uncertainties in the groundwater flow system and proposed activity. The results indicated that the extraction of water and gas from the coal seam could potentially induce additional fluxes from the Pilliga Sandstone to the deeper formations due to lowering pressure heads in the coal seams. The median value of the rise in the maximum flux from the Pilliga Sandstone to the deeper formations is estimated to be 85ML/year, which is considered insignificant as it forms only about 0.29% of the Long Term Annual Average Extraction Limit of 30GL/year from the groundwater management area. The probabilistic simulation of the water balance components indicates only small changes being induced by CSG development that influence interactions of the Pilliga Sandstone with the overlying and underlying formations and with the surface water courses. The current analyses that quantified the potential maximum impacts of resource developments and how they influences the regional water balance, would greatly underpin future management decisions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  13. Procedures for the estimation of regional scale atmospheric emissions—An example from the North West Region of England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindley, S. J.; Longhurst, J. W. S.; Watson, A. F. R.; Conlan, D. E.

    This paper considers the value of applying an alternative pro rata methodology to the estimation of atmospheric emissions from a given regional or local area. Such investigations into less time and resource intensive means of providing estimates in comparison to traditional methods are important due to the potential role of new methods in the development of air quality management plans. A pro rata approach is used here to estimate emissions of SO 2, NO x, CO, CO 2, VOCs and black smoke from all sources and Pb from transportation for the North West region of England. This method has the advantage of using readily available data as well as being an easily repeatable procedure which provides a good indication of emissions to be expected from a particular geographical region. This can then provide the impetus for further emission studies and ultimately a regional/local air quality management plan. Results suggest that between 1987 and 1991 trends in the emissions of the pollutants considered have been less favourable in the North West region than in the nation as a whole.

  14. Quantifying the Impact of Tropospheric Ozone on Crops Productivity at regional scale using JULES-crop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, F.

    2016-12-01

    Tropospheric ozone (O3) is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. It is causing significant crop production losses. Currently, O3 concentrations are projected to increase globally, which could have a significant impact on food security. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) is used here to quantify the impacts of tropospheric O3 on crop production at the regional scale until 2100. We evaluate JULES-crop against the Soybean Free-Air-Concentration-Enrichment (SoyFACE) experiment in Illinois, USA. Experimental data from SoyFACE and various literature sources is used to calibrate the parameters for soybean and ozone damage parameters in soybean in JULES-crop. The calibrated model is then applied for a transient factorial set of JULES-crop simulations over 1960-2005. Simulated yield changes are attributed to individual environmental drivers, CO2, O3 and climate change, across regions and for different crops. A mixed scenario of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climatology and ozone are simulated to explore the implication of policy. The overall findings are that regions with high ozone concentration such as China and India suffer the most from ozone damage, soybean is more sensitive to O3 than other crops. JULES-crop predicts CO2 fertilisation would increase the productivity of vegetation. This effect, however, is masked by the negative impacts of tropospheric O3. Using data from FAO and JULES-crop estimated that ozone damage cost around 55.4 Billion USD per year on soybean. Irrigation improves the simulation of rice only, and it increases the relative ozone damage because drought can reduce the ozone from entering the plant stomata. RCP 8.5 scenario results in a high yield for all crops mainly due to the CO2 fertilisation effect. Mixed climate scenarios simulations suggest that RCP 8.5 CO2 concentration and RCP 2.6 O3 concentration result in the highest yield. Further works such as more crop FACE-O3 experiments and more Crop

  15. Prediction of monthly rainfall on homogeneous monsoon regions of India based on large scale circulation patterns using Genetic Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashid, Satishkumar S.; Maity, Rajib

    2012-08-01

    SummaryPrediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is of vital importance for Indian economy, and it has been remained a great challenge for hydro-meteorologists due to inherent complexities in the climatic systems. The Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from tropical Pacific Ocean (ENSO) and those from tropical Indian Ocean (EQUINOO) are established to influence the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. The information of these two large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in terms of their indices is used to model the complex relationship between Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and the ENSO as well as EQUINOO indices. However, extracting the signal from such large-scale indices for modeling such complex systems is significantly difficult. Rainfall predictions have been done for 'All India' as one unit, as well as for five 'homogeneous monsoon regions of India', defined by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Recent 'Artificial Intelligence' tool 'Genetic Programming' (GP) has been employed for modeling such problem. The Genetic Programming approach is found to capture the complex relationship between the monthly Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and large scale atmospheric circulation pattern indices - ENSO and EQUINOO. Research findings of this study indicate that GP-derived monthly rainfall forecasting models, that use large-scale atmospheric circulation information are successful in prediction of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall with correlation coefficient as good as 0.866, which may appears attractive for such a complex system. A separate analysis is carried out for All India Summer Monsoon rainfall for India as one unit, and five homogeneous monsoon regions, based on ENSO and EQUINOO indices of months of March, April and May only, performed at end of month of May. In this case, All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall could be predicted with 0.70 as correlation coefficient with somewhat lesser Correlation Coefficient (C.C.) values for different

  16. Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malick, Michael J.; Cox, Sean P.

    2016-01-01

    Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC) with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65%) did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks) and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks). We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time. PMID:26760510

  17. Classification as a generic tool for characterising status and changes of regional scale groundwater systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthel, Roland; Haaf, Ezra

    2016-04-01

    Regional hydrogeology is becoming increasingly important, but at the same time, scientifically sound, universal solutions for typical groundwater problems encountered on the regional scale are hard to find. While managers, decision-makers and state agencies operating on regional and national levels have always shown a strong interest in regional scale hydrogeology, researchers from academia tend to avoid the subject, focusing instead on local scales. Additionally, hydrogeology has always had a tendency to regard every problem as unique to its own site- and problem-specific context. Regional scale hydrogeology is therefore pragmatic rather than aiming at developing generic methodology (Barthel, 2014; Barthel and Banzhaf, 2016). One of the main challenges encountered on the regional scale in hydrogeology is the extreme heterogeneity that generally increases with the size of the studied area - paired with relative data scarcity. Even in well-monitored regions of the world, groundwater observations are usually clustered, leaving large areas without any direct data. However, there are many good reasons for assessing the status and predicting the behavior of groundwater systems under conditions of global change even for those areas and aquifers without observations. This is typically done by using rather coarsely discretized and / or poorly parameterized numerical models, or by using very simplistic conceptual hydrological models that do not take into account the complex three-dimensional geological setup. Numerical models heavily rely on local data and are resource-demanding. Conceptual hydrological models only deliver reliable information on groundwater if the geology is extremely simple. In this contribution, we present an approach to derive statistically relevant information for un-monitored areas, making use of existing information from similar localities that are or have been monitored. The approach combines site-specific knowledge with conceptual assumptions on

  18. A rating scale is a proper method to evaluate changes in quality of life due to dry eye symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Wenwen; Xu, Xian; Zou, Haidong

    2018-02-07

    To determine which utility value assessment method is more suitable to evaluate changes in the quality of life due to dry eye symptoms. Dry eye outpatients with a presenting visual acuity of 20/25 or better in the worse-seeing eye were recruited. Presenting distance visual acuity, tear film break-up time, Schirmer I test and fluorescein were assessed. The severity of dry eye symptoms was assessed using the Ocular Surface Disease Index (OSDI), and utility values were measured using the time trade-off (TTO), standard gamble (SG1 and SG2) and rating scale (RS) methods. Different utility values were compared with each other. The most appropriate utility value method to evaluate quality-of-life changes solely due to dry eye symptoms is determined by calculating the correlation between the OSDI score and different utility values. A total of 104 patients were enrolled. The three sections of OSDI in the order of high to low scores were as follows: "environmental trigger," "eye discomfort" and "visual function." The utility scores measured with TTO, SG1, SG2 and RS were 0.95 ± 0.11, 0.96 ± 0.10, 0.99 ± 0.07 and 0.89 ± 0.10, respectively. The utility scores evaluated by the TTO, SG1, SG2 and RS methods were significantly different from each other (p eye discomfort" section scores (p dry eye symptoms.

  19. The Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia: Analyzing Regional Land Use Change Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael Keller; Maria Assunção Silva-Dias; Daniel C. Nepstad; Meinrat O. Andreae

    2004-01-01

    The Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) is a multi-disciplinary, multinational scientific project led by Brazil. LBA researchers seek to understand Amazonia in its global context especially with regard to regional and global climate. Current development activities in Amazonia including deforestation, logging, cattle ranching, and agriculture...

  20. Forest dynamics in the temperate rainforests of Alaska: from individual tree to regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tara M. Barrett

    2015-01-01

    Analysis of remeasurement data from 1079 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots revealed multi-scale change occurring in the temperate rainforests of southeast Alaska. In the western half of the region, including Prince William Sound, aboveground live tree biomass and carbon are increasing at a rate of 8 ( ± 2 ) percent per decade, driven by an increase in Sitka...

  1. Representing major soil variability at regional scale by constrained Latin Hypercube Sampling of remote sensing data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, V.L.; Bruin, de S.; Schaepman, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a sparse, remote sensing-based sampling approach making use of conditioned Latin Hypercube Sampling (cLHS) to assess variability in soil properties at regional scale. The method optimizes the sampling scheme for a defined spatial population based on selected covariates, which are

  2. Towards the spatial coherence of biogeographical regionalizations at subcontinental and landscape scales

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Divíšek, Jan; Storch, D.; Zelený, D.; Culek, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 43, č. 43 (2016), s. 2489-2501 ISSN 0305-0270 Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : beta diversity * biogeographical regions * spatial scale Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 4.248, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jbi.12832/full

  3. Interacting Regional-Scale Regime Shifts for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leadley, P.; Proenca, V.; Fernandez-Manjarres, J.; Pereira, H.M.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Biggs, R.; Bruley, E.; Cheung, W.; Cooper, D.; Figueiredo, J.; Gilman, E.; Guenette, S.; Hurtt, G.; Mbow, C.; Oberdorff, T.; Revenga, C.; Scharlemann, J.P.W.; Scholes, R.; Smith, M.S.; Sumaila, U.R.; Walpole, M.

    2014-01-01

    Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human-environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are

  4. Long-term regional and sub-regional scale groundwater flow within an irregularly fractured Canadian shield setting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sykes, J.F.; Sudicky, E.A.; Normani, S.D.; McLaren, R.G.; Jensen, M.R.

    2006-01-01

    As part of Ontario Power Generation's Deep Geologic Repository Technology Program (DGRTP), activities have been undertaken to further the understanding of groundwater flow system evolution and dynamics within a Canadian Shield setting. This paper describes a numerical case study in which the evolution and nature of groundwater flow, as relevant to the siting and safety of a hypothetical Deep Geologic Repository (DGR) for used nuclear fuel, is explored within representative regional (∼5734 km 2 ) and sub-regional (∼83 km 2 ) Shield watersheds. The modelling strategy adopted a GIS framework that included a digital elevation model and surface hydrologic features such as rivers, lakes and wetlands. Model boundary conditions were extracted through GIS automation such that the 3-dimensional characteristics of surface relief, surface water features, in addition to, pore fluid salinities and spatially variable permeability fields could be explicitly incorporated. Further flow system detail has been incorporated in sub-regional simulations with the inclusion of an irregular curve-planar Fracture Network Model traceable to site-specific geologic attributes. Interim modelling results reveal that deep-seated regional flow systems do evolve with groundwater divides within the shallow (<300 m) flow system defined by local scale topography, in particular, major rivers and their tributaries. Within the realizations considered groundwater flow at depths of ∼700 m or more was determined to be essentially stagnant and likely diffusion dominated. The role of fracture zone interconnectivity, depth dependent salinity and spatially variable permeability distributions on flow system response to past glacial events is examined. In demonstrating a case for groundwater flow system stability it is evident that predictive modelling approaches that cannot preserve the 3-dimensional complexity of the watershed-scale groundwater flow system may lead to conclusions that are implausible

  5. Regional myocardial extraction of a radioiodinated branched chain fatty acid during right ventricular pressure overload due to acute pulmonary hypertension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurford, W.; Lowenstein, E.; Zapol, W.; Barlai-Kovach, M.; Livni, E.; Elmaleh, D.R.; Strauss, H.W.

    1985-01-01

    To determine whether branched chain fatty acid extraction is reduced during right ventricular (RV) dysfunction due to acute pulmonary artery hypertension, studies were done in 6 anesthetized dogs. Regional branched chain fatty acid extraction was measured by comparing the myocardial uptake of I-125 labeled 15-[p-(iodophenyl)]-3-methylpentadecanoic acid (I-PDA) to myocardial blood flow. Acute pulmonary hypertension was induced by incremental intravenous injection of 100 micron diameter glass beads into six pentobarbital anesthetized, mechanically ventilated dogs. Myocardial blood flow was measured by radiolabeled microspheres both under baseline conditions and during pulmonary hypertension. Mean RV pressure rose from 12 +- 2 (mean +- SEM) to 30 +-3mmHg resulting in a 225 +- 16% increase in RV stroke work. RV ejection fraction, as assessed by gated blood pool scans fell from 39 +- 2 to 18 +- 2%. Left ventricular (LV) pressures, stroke work and ejection fraction were unchanged. Myocardial blood flow increased 132 + 59% in the RV free wall and 67 +- 22% in the RV septum. LV blood flow was unchanged. Despite increased RV work and myocardial blood flow, no differences were noted in the branched chain fatty acid extraction ratios among LV or RV free walls or septum. The authors conclude that early RV dysfunction associated with pulmonary artery hypertension is not due to inadequate myocardial blood flow or branched chain fatty acid extraction

  6. Energy transitions in small-scale regions – What we can learn from a regional innovation systems perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mattes, Jannika; Huber, Andreas; Koehrsen, Jens

    2015-01-01

    The prevalent theories in the debate on sustainability transitions have been criticised for not sufficiently addressing energy change processes at the local level. This paper aims to enhance our understanding of local energy reorganisation processes. Drawing on the Regional Innovation Systems (RIS) approach, we argue that local development dynamics result from the interaction of various subsystems: science, politics, public administration, industry, finance, intermediaries and civil society. The analysis of the involved subsystems and their interaction shows how energy transitions are shaped by different individual and organisational actors as well as institutions on the local level. Empirical evidence from case studies on the German cities of Emden and Bottrop illustrates our theoretical conceptualisation of energy transitions. We conclude by presenting characteristic interaction patterns for energy transition drawn from the two cases. - Highlights: • We highlight the importance of spatial and regional aspects for transitions. • We draw upon regional innovation systems’ subsystems to describe energy transitions. • We show how actors and institutions interact in and coordinate transition processes. • We present evidence from two small-scale regions in Germany: Emden and Bottrop

  7. A Systematic Multi-Time Scale Solution for Regional Power Grid Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, W. J.; Liu, Z. G.; Cheng, T.; Hu, B. Q.; Liu, X. Z.; Zhou, Y. F.

    2017-10-01

    Many aspects need to be taken into consideration in a regional grid while making schedule plans. In this paper, a systematic multi-time scale solution for regional power grid operation considering large scale renewable energy integration and Ultra High Voltage (UHV) power transmission is proposed. In the time scale aspect, we discuss the problem from month, week, day-ahead, within-day to day-behind, and the system also contains multiple generator types including thermal units, hydro-plants, wind turbines and pumped storage stations. The 9 subsystems of the scheduling system are described, and their functions and relationships are elaborated. The proposed system has been constructed in a provincial power grid in Central China, and the operation results further verified the effectiveness of the system.

  8. The Thirty Years’ Results of Radiation Hygienic Monitoring of Tula Region territories contaminated due to the Chernobyl NPP accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Boldyreva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Over 50% of Tula Region areas were contaminated after the Chernobyl NPP accident. The article provides the thirty years’ results of radiation hygienic monitoring of the Chernobyl accidental fallout - affected areas in Tula Region. The radiation situation is assessed at the initial accidental period and at the current stage. The initial levels of gamma - radiation dose intensity (up to 35 mcSv/hr are identified for the period of the “iodine” hazard along with the tabular data on the dose intensity relative stabilization by the beginning of August 1986 due to iodine-131 decay. The information is presented regarding iodine-131 tentative maximum permissible level exceedance in the dairy products of the two most contaminated regional areas - Plavskoye and Arsenievskoye. The article also provides the laboratory data on the total beta - activity in the foodstuffs in 1986-1987 and cesium-137 maximum permissible level exceedence in 1986. The radionuclide maximum permissible level exceedances in foodstuffs were registered only in 1986 due to the plants surface contamination whereas in the forest mushrooms those exceedances were repeatedly found until 2004. The black earths and grey forest soils had a benign impact upon the intensity of the radionuclide transfer into plants which resulted in the formation of internal radiation doses.At the current stage, the content of cesium-137 and strontium- 90 in the foodstuffs can only be quantified by a radiochemical method. The table covers all the districts within the boundaries of radiation contaminated zones. The radiochemical studies indicate the main dose - forming products. The article contains the table of internal and external radiation doses of the population in Plavsk town over 1986-1990 and displays the factors impacting population’s internal and external exposure. The Chernobyl - affected exposure dose of the population is mostly attributed to the external radiation and, for over twenty years, it

  9. Beetle-kill to carbon-negative bioenergy in the Rockies: stand, enterprise, and regional-scale perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, J.; Paustian, K.

    2016-12-01

    The interior mountain West is particularly vulnerable to climate change with potential impacts including drought and wildfire intensification, and wide-scale species disruptions due to shifts in habitable elevation ranges or other effects. One such example is the current outbreak of native mountain pine and spruce beetles across the Rockies, with warmer winters, dryer summers, and a legacy of logging and fire suppression all interacting to result in infestation and unprecedented tree mortality over more than 42 million acres. Current global climate change mitigation commitments imply that shifts to renewable energy must be supplemented with widespread deployment of carbon-negative technologies such as BECCS and biochar. Carefully-designed forest bioenergy and biochar industries can play an important role in meeting these targets, valorizing woody biomass and allowing more acres to be actively managed under existing land management goals while simultaneously displacing fossil energy use and directly sequestering carbon. In this work we assess the negative emissions potential from the deployment of biochar co-producing thermochemical bioenergy technologies in the Rockies using beetle-kill wood as a feedstock, a way of leveraging a climate change driven problem for climate mitigation. We start with a review and classification of bioenergy lifecycle assessment emission source categories, clarifying the differences in mechanism and confidence around emissions sources, offsets, sequestration, and leakage effects. Next we develop methods for modeling ecosystem carbon response to biomass removals at the stand scale, considering potential species shifts and regrowth rates under different harvest systems deployed in different areas. We then apply a lifecycle assessment framework to evaluate the performance of a set of real-world bioenergy technologies at enterprise scale, including biomass logistics and conversion product yields. We end with an exploration of regional-scale

  10. Quantifying spatial scaling patterns and their local and regional correlates in headwater streams: implications for resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Göthe

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The distribution of functional traits within and across spatiotemporal scales has been used to quantify and infer the relative resilience across ecosystems. We use explicit spatial modeling to evaluate within- and cross-scale redundancy in headwater streams, an ecosystem type with a hierarchical and dendritic network structure. We assessed the cross-scale distribution of functional feeding groups of benthic invertebrates in Swedish headwater streams during two seasons. We evaluated functional metrics, i.e., Shannon diversity, richness, and evenness, and the degree of redundancy within and across modeled spatial scales for individual feeding groups. We also estimated the correlates of environmental versus spatial factors of both functional composition and the taxonomic composition of functional groups for each spatial scale identified. Measures of functional diversity and within-scale redundancy of functions were similar during both seasons, but both within- and cross-scale redundancy were low. This apparent low redundancy was partly attributable to a few dominant taxa explaining the spatial models. However, rare taxa with stochastic spatial distributions might provide additional information and should therefore be considered explicitly for complementing future resilience assessments. Otherwise, resilience may be underestimated. Finally, both environmental and spatial factors correlated with the scale-specific functional and taxonomic composition. This finding suggests that resilience in stream networks emerges as a function of not only local conditions but also regional factors such as habitat connectivity and invertebrate dispersal.

  11. Quantifying spatial scaling patterns and their local and regional correlates in headwater streams: Implications for resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gothe, Emma; Sandin, Leonard; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.

    2014-01-01

    The distribution of functional traits within and across spatiotemporal scales has been used to quantify and infer the relative resilience across ecosystems. We use explicit spatial modeling to evaluate within- and cross-scale redundancy in headwater streams, an ecosystem type with a hierarchical and dendritic network structure. We assessed the cross-scale distribution of functional feeding groups of benthic invertebrates in Swedish headwater streams during two seasons. We evaluated functional metrics, i.e., Shannon diversity, richness, and evenness, and the degree of redundancy within and across modeled spatial scales for individual feeding groups. We also estimated the correlates of environmental versus spatial factors of both functional composition and the taxonomic composition of functional groups for each spatial scale identified. Measures of functional diversity and within-scale redundancy of functions were similar during both seasons, but both within- and cross-scale redundancy were low. This apparent low redundancy was partly attributable to a few dominant taxa explaining the spatial models. However, rare taxa with stochastic spatial distributions might provide additional information and should therefore be considered explicitly for complementing future resilience assessments. Otherwise, resilience may be underestimated. Finally, both environmental and spatial factors correlated with the scale-specific functional and taxonomic composition. This finding suggests that resilience in stream networks emerges as a function of not only local conditions but also regional factors such as habitat connectivity and invertebrate dispersal.

  12. Large-Scale Covariability Between Aerosol and Precipitation Over the 7-SEAS Region: Observations and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jingfeng; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee; Zhang, Chidong; Jeong, Myeong Jae; Gautam, Ritesh; Bettenhausen, Corey; Sayer, Andrew M.; Hansell, Richard A.; Liu, Xiaohong; hide

    2012-01-01

    One of the seven scientific areas of interests of the 7-SEAS field campaign is to evaluate the impact of aerosol on cloud and precipitation (http://7-seas.gsfc.nasa.gov). However, large-scale covariability between aerosol, cloud and precipitation is complicated not only by ambient environment and a variety of aerosol effects, but also by effects from rain washout and climate factors. This study characterizes large-scale aerosol-cloud-precipitation covariability through synergy of long-term multi ]sensor satellite observations with model simulations over the 7-SEAS region [10S-30N, 95E-130E]. Results show that climate factors such as ENSO significantly modulate aerosol and precipitation over the region simultaneously. After removal of climate factor effects, aerosol and precipitation are significantly anti-correlated over the southern part of the region, where high aerosols loading is associated with overall reduced total precipitation with intensified rain rates and decreased rain frequency, decreased tropospheric latent heating, suppressed cloud top height and increased outgoing longwave radiation, enhanced clear-sky shortwave TOA flux but reduced all-sky shortwave TOA flux in deep convective regimes; but such covariability becomes less notable over the northern counterpart of the region where low ]level stratus are found. Using CO as a proxy of biomass burning aerosols to minimize the washout effect, large-scale covariability between CO and precipitation was also investigated and similar large-scale covariability observed. Model simulations with NCAR CAM5 were found to show similar effects to observations in the spatio-temporal patterns. Results from both observations and simulations are valuable for improving our understanding of this region's meteorological system and the roles of aerosol within it. Key words: aerosol; precipitation; large-scale covariability; aerosol effects; washout; climate factors; 7- SEAS; CO; CAM5

  13. Spectral classification of medium-scale high-latitude F region plasma density irregularities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, M.; Rodriguez, P.; Szuszczewicz, E.P.; Sachs Freeman Associates, Bowie, MD)

    1985-01-01

    The high-latitude ionosphere represents a highly structured plasma. Rodriguez and Szuszczewicz (1984) reported a wide range of plasma density irregularities (150 km to 75 m) at high latitudes near 200 km. They have shown that the small-scale irregularities (7.5 km to 75 m) populated the dayside oval more often than the other phenomenological regions. It was suggested that in the lower F region the chemical recombination is fast enough to remove small-scale irregularities before convection can transport them large distances, leaving structured particle precipitation as the dominant source term for irregularities. The present paper provides the results of spectral analyses of pulsed plasma probe data collected in situ aboard the STP/S3-4 satellite during the period March-September 1978. A quantitative description of irregularity spectra in the high-latitude lower F region plasma density is given. 22 references

  14. Spatial connections in regional climate model rainfall outputs at different temporal scales: Application of network theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naufan, Ihsan; Sivakumar, Bellie; Woldemeskel, Fitsum M.; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall has always been a great challenge, and the impacts of climate change further complicate this issue. The present study employs the concepts of complex networks to study the spatial connections in rainfall, with emphasis on climate change and rainfall scaling. Rainfall outputs (during 1961-1990) from a regional climate model (i.e. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that downscaled the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF ERA-40 reanalyses) over Southeast Asia are studied, and data corresponding to eight different temporal scales (6-hr, 12-hr, daily, 2-day, 4-day, weekly, biweekly, and monthly) are analyzed. Two network-based methods are applied to examine the connections in rainfall: clustering coefficient (a measure of the network's local density) and degree distribution (a measure of the network's spread). The influence of rainfall correlation threshold (T) on spatial connections is also investigated by considering seven different threshold levels (ranging from 0.5 to 0.8). The results indicate that: (1) rainfall networks corresponding to much coarser temporal scales exhibit properties similar to that of small-world networks, regardless of the threshold; (2) rainfall networks corresponding to much finer temporal scales may be classified as either small-world networks or scale-free networks, depending upon the threshold; and (3) rainfall spatial connections exhibit a transition phase at intermediate temporal scales, especially at high thresholds. These results suggest that the most appropriate model for studying spatial connections may often be different at different temporal scales, and that a combination of small-world and scale-free network models might be more appropriate for rainfall upscaling/downscaling across all scales, in the strict sense of scale-invariance. The results also suggest that spatial connections in the studied rainfall networks in Southeast Asia are

  15. Large Scale Evapotranspiration Estimates: An Important Component in Regional Water Balances to Assess Water Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garatuza-Payan, J.; Yepez, E. A.; Watts, C.; Rodriguez, J. C.; Valdez-Torres, L. C.; Robles-Morua, A.

    2013-05-01

    Water security, can be defined as the reliable supply in quantity and quality of water to help sustain future populations and maintaining ecosystem health and productivity. Water security is rapidly declining in many parts of the world due to population growth, drought, climate change, salinity, pollution, land use change, over-allocation and over-utilization, among other issues. Governmental offices (such as the Comision Nacional del Agua in Mexico, CONAGUA) require and conduct studies to estimate reliable water balances at regional or continental scales in order to provide reasonable assessments of the amount of water that can be provided (from surface or ground water sources) to supply all the human needs while maintaining natural vegetation, on an operational basis and, more important, under disturbances, such as droughts. Large scale estimates of evapotranspiration (ET), a critical component of the water cycle, are needed for a better comprehension of the hydrological cycle at large scales, which, in most water balances is left as the residual. For operational purposes, such water balance estimates can not rely on ET measurements since they do not exist, should be simple and require the least ground information possible, information that is often scarce or does not exist at all. Given this limitation, the use of remotely sensed data to estimate ET could supplement the lack of ground information, particularly in remote regions In this study, a simple method, based on the Makkink equation is used to estimate ET for large areas at high spatial resolutions (1 km). The Makkink model used here is forced using three remotely sensed datasets. First, the model uses solar radiation estimates obtained from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES); Second, the model uses an Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) obtained from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized to get an estimate for vegetation amount and land use which was

  16. Increased fire frequency promotes stronger spatial genetic structure and natural selection at regional and local scales in Pinus halepensis Mill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budde, Katharina B; González-Martínez, Santiago C; Navascués, Miguel; Burgarella, Concetta; Mosca, Elena; Lorenzo, Zaida; Zabal-Aguirre, Mario; Vendramin, Giovanni G; Verdú, Miguel; Pausas, Juli G; Heuertz, Myriam

    2017-04-01

    The recurrence of wildfires is predicted to increase due to global climate change, resulting in severe impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Recurrent fires can drive plant adaptation and reduce genetic diversity; however, the underlying population genetic processes have not been studied in detail. In this study, the neutral and adaptive evolutionary effects of contrasting fire regimes were examined in the keystone tree species Pinus halepensis Mill. (Aleppo pine), a fire-adapted conifer. The genetic diversity, demographic history and spatial genetic structure were assessed at local (within-population) and regional scales for populations exposed to different crown fire frequencies. Eight natural P. halepensis stands were sampled in the east of the Iberian Peninsula, five of them in a region exposed to frequent crown fires (HiFi) and three of them in an adjacent region with a low frequency of crown fires (LoFi). Samples were genotyped at nine neutral simple sequence repeats (SSRs) and at 251 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from coding regions, some of them potentially important for fire adaptation. Fire regime had no effects on genetic diversity or demographic history. Three high-differentiation outlier SNPs were identified between HiFi and LoFi stands, suggesting fire-related selection at the regional scale. At the local scale, fine-scale spatial genetic structure (SGS) was overall weak as expected for a wind-pollinated and wind-dispersed tree species. HiFi stands displayed a stronger SGS than LoFi stands at SNPs, which probably reflected the simultaneous post-fire recruitment of co-dispersed related seeds. SNPs with exceptionally strong SGS, a proxy for microenvironmental selection, were only reliably identified under the HiFi regime. An increasing fire frequency as predicted due to global change can promote increased SGS with stronger family structures and alter natural selection in P. halepensis and in plants with similar life history traits

  17. Estimating regional-scale methane flux and budgets using CARVE aircraft measurements over Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hartery

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Methane (CH4 is the second most important greenhouse gas but its emissions from northern regions are still poorly constrained. In this study, we analyze a subset of in situ CH4 aircraft observations made over Alaska during the growing seasons of 2012–2014 as part of the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE. Net surface CH4 fluxes are estimated using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model which quantitatively links surface emissions from Alaska and the western Yukon with observations of enhanced CH4 in the mixed layer. We estimate that between May and September, net CH4 emissions from the region of interest were 2.2 ± 0.5 Tg, 1.9 ± 0.4 Tg, and 2.3 ± 0.6 Tg of CH4 for 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. If emissions are only attributed to two biogenic eco-regions within our domain, then tundra regions were the predominant source, accounting for over half of the overall budget despite only representing 18 % of the total surface area. Boreal regions, which cover a large part of the study region, accounted for the remainder of the emissions. Simple multiple linear regression analysis revealed that, overall, CH4 fluxes were largely driven by soil temperature and elevation. In regions specifically dominated by wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 10 cm depth were important explanatory variables while in regions that were not wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 40 cm depth were more important, suggesting deeper methanogenesis in drier soils. Although similar environmental drivers have been found in the past to control CH4 emissions at local scales, this study shows that they can be used to generate a statistical model to estimate the regional-scale net CH4 budget.

  18. Estimating regional-scale methane flux and budgets using CARVE aircraft measurements over Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartery, Sean; Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Sweeney, Colm; Henderson, John; Mountain, Marikate; Steiner, Nicholas; McDonald, Kyle; Dinardo, Steven J.; Miller, Charles E.; Wofsy, Steven C.; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.

    2018-01-01

    Methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas but its emissions from northern regions are still poorly constrained. In this study, we analyze a subset of in situ CH4 aircraft observations made over Alaska during the growing seasons of 2012-2014 as part of the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE). Net surface CH4 fluxes are estimated using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model which quantitatively links surface emissions from Alaska and the western Yukon with observations of enhanced CH4 in the mixed layer. We estimate that between May and September, net CH4 emissions from the region of interest were 2.2 ± 0.5 Tg, 1.9 ± 0.4 Tg, and 2.3 ± 0.6 Tg of CH4 for 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. If emissions are only attributed to two biogenic eco-regions within our domain, then tundra regions were the predominant source, accounting for over half of the overall budget despite only representing 18 % of the total surface area. Boreal regions, which cover a large part of the study region, accounted for the remainder of the emissions. Simple multiple linear regression analysis revealed that, overall, CH4 fluxes were largely driven by soil temperature and elevation. In regions specifically dominated by wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 10 cm depth were important explanatory variables while in regions that were not wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 40 cm depth were more important, suggesting deeper methanogenesis in drier soils. Although similar environmental drivers have been found in the past to control CH4 emissions at local scales, this study shows that they can be used to generate a statistical model to estimate the regional-scale net CH4 budget.

  19. A near real time scenario at regional scale for the hydrogeological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponziani, F.; Stelluti, M.; Zauri, R.; Berni, N.; Brocca, L.; Moramarco, T.; Salciarini, D.; Tamagnini, C.

    2012-04-01

    The early warning systems dedicated to landslides and floods represent the Umbria Region Civil Protection Service new generation tools for hydraulic and hydrogeological risk reduction. Following past analyses performed by the Functional Centre (part of the civil protection service dedicated to the monitoring and the evaluation of natural hazards) on the relationship between saturated soil conditions and rainfall thresholds, we have developed an automated early warning system for the landslide risk, called LANDWARN, which generates daily and 72h forecast risk matrix with a dense mesh of 100 x 100m, throughout the region. The system is based on: (a) the 20 days -observed and 72h -predicted rainfall, provided by the local meteorological network and the Local scale Meteorological Model COSMO ME, (b) the assessment of the saturation of soils by: daily extraction of ASCAT satellite data, data from a network of 16 TDR sensors, and a water balance model (developed by the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, CNR, Perugia, Italy) that allows for the prediction of a saturation index for each point of the analysis grid up to a window of 72 h, (c) a Web-GIS platform that combines the data grids of calculated hazard indicators with layers of landslide susceptibility and vulnerability of the territory, in order to produce dynamic risk scenarios. The system is still under development and it's implemented at different scales: the entire region, and a set of known high-risk landslides in Umbria. The system is monitored and regularly reviewed through the back analysis of landslide reports for which the activation date is available. Up to now, the development of the system involves: a) the improvement of the reliability assessment of the condition of soil saturation, a key parameter which is used to dynamically adjust the values of rainfall thresholds used for the declaration of levels of landslide hazard. For this purpose, a procedure was created for the ASCAT

  20. DEVELOPMENT OF MSW COLLECTION SERVICES ON REGIONAL SCALE: SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND URBAN DISPARITIES IN NORTH-EAST REGION, ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FLORIN-CONSTANTIN MIHAI

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The cities are facing illegal dumping of municipal solid waste (MSW because the waste collection facilities do not cover the entire population. Furthermore, this sector is poorly developed in small towns or villages annexed to administrative territory units (ATU of cities , MSW are disposed in open dumps polluting the local environment. This paper analyzes on the one hand the urban disparities on public access to waste collection services (WCS in the North-East Region on the other hand, it performs a comparative analysis between 2003 and 2010 outlining the changes made in the context of Romania’s accession to EU. Also, it performs a quantitative assessment method of uncollected waste at urban level and correlated to demographic features of each city. Spatial-temporal analysis of waste indicators using thematic cartography or GIS techniques should be a basic tool for environmental monitoring or assessment of projects from this field in every development region (NUTS 2. The EU acquis requires the closure of noncompliant landfills, the extension of waste collection services, the development of facilities for separate collection, recycling and reuse according to waste hierarchy concept. Full coverage of urban population to waste collection services is necessary to provide a proper management of this sector. Urban disparities between counties and within counties highlights that current traditional waste management system is an environmental threat at local and regional scale.

  1. Loss of ecosystem services due to chronic pollution of forests and surface waters in the Adirondack region (USA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Colin M; Caputo, Jesse; Lawrence, Gregory B; Sullivan, Timothy J

    2017-04-15

    Sustaining recent progress in mitigating acid pollution could require lower emissions caps that will give rise to real or perceived tradeoffs between healthy ecosystems and inexpensive energy. Because most impacts of acid rain affect ecosystem functions that are poorly understood by policy-makers and the public, an ecosystem services (ES) framework can help to measure how pollution affects human well-being. Focused on the Adirondack region (USA), a global 'hot-spot' of acid pollution, we measured how the chronic acidification of the region's forests, lakes, and streams has affected the potential economic and cultural benefits they provide to society. We estimated that acid-impaired hardwood forests provide roughly half of the potential benefits of forests on moderate to well-buffered soils - an estimated loss of ∼ $10,000 ha -1 in net present value of wood products, maple syrup, carbon sequestration, and visual quality. Acidic deposition has had only nominal impact - relative to the effects of surficial geology and till depth - on the capacity of Adirondack lakes and streams to provide water suitable for drinking. However, as pH declines in lakes, the estimated value of recreational fishing decreases significantly due to loss of desirable fish such as trout. Hatchery stocking programs have partially offset the pollution-mediated losses of fishery value, most effectively in the pH range 4.8-5.5, but are costly and limited in scope. Although any estimates of the monetary 'damages' of acid rain have significant uncertainties, our findings highlight some of the more tangible economic and cultural benefits of pollution mitigation efforts, which continue to face litigation and political opposition. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. Loss of ecosystem services due to chronic pollution of forests and surface waters in the Adirondack region (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Colin M.; Caputo, Jesse; Lawrence, Gregory B.; Sullivan, Timothy J.

    2017-01-01

    Sustaining recent progress in mitigating acid pollution could require lower emissions caps that will give rise to real or perceived tradeoffs between healthy ecosystems and inexpensive energy. Because most impacts of acid rain affect ecosystem functions that are poorly understood by policy-makers and the public, an ecosystem services (ES) framework can help to measure how pollution affects human well-being. Focused on the Adirondack region (USA), a global ‘hot-spot’ of acid pollution, we measured how the chronic acidification of the region's forests, lakes, and streams has affected the potential economic and cultural benefits they provide to society. We estimated that acid-impaired hardwood forests provide roughly half of the potential benefits of forests on moderate to well-buffered soils – an estimated loss of ∼ $10,000 ha−1 in net present value of wood products, maple syrup, carbon sequestration, and visual quality. Acidic deposition has had only nominal impact – relative to the effects of surficial geology and till depth – on the capacity of Adirondack lakes and streams to provide water suitable for drinking. However, as pH declines in lakes, the estimated value of recreational fishing decreases significantly due to loss of desirable fish such as trout. Hatchery stocking programs have partially offset the pollution-mediated losses of fishery value, most effectively in the pH range 4.8–5.5, but are costly and limited in scope. Although any estimates of the monetary ‘damages’ of acid rain have significant uncertainties, our findings highlight some of the more tangible economic and cultural benefits of pollution mitigation efforts, which continue to face litigation and political opposition.

  3. Dynamics of Multi-Scale Intra-Provincial Regional Inequality in Zhejiang, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenze Yue

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates regional inequality in a multi-scale framework, using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, based on the per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP of counties and municipalities within the Zhejiang province in China between the years of 1990 and 2010. A Spatial Markov Chain is used to identify the dynamics of regional wealth disparity in Zhejiang. The results show that the regional inequality of Zhejiang is sensitive to the geographic scale of the analysis. In addition, the inter-county inequality shows an inverted-U shape pattern. At the same time, the inter-municipality inequality displays a more consistently upward trend, and the evolution of the interregional inequality is relatively stable over time. The regional inequality is more significant at finer (larger spatial scales. The decomposition of the Theil Index shows that the contribution of the inequalities between Northeast Zhejiang and Southwest Zhejiang increased. The increasingly larger values of the Global Moran’s I show that there is an intensifying spatial aggregation of economic development. The comparison of the traditional Markov transition matrix and the Spatial Markov transition matrix illustrates how the relative wealth or poverty of neighboring counties make a significance difference in wealth in a given county as measured using domestic GDP per capita in Zhejiang province. This space-time analysis is valuable for policy making towards sustainable economic development in China given the soaring spatial inequality.

  4. Ear Detection under Uncontrolled Conditions with Multiple Scale Faster Region-Based Convolutional Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Zhang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Ear detection is an important step in ear recognition approaches. Most existing ear detection techniques are based on manually designing features or shallow learning algorithms. However, researchers found that the pose variation, occlusion, and imaging conditions provide a great challenge to the traditional ear detection methods under uncontrolled conditions. This paper proposes an efficient technique involving Multiple Scale Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Networks (Faster R-CNN to detect ears from 2D profile images in natural images automatically. Firstly, three regions of different scales are detected to infer the information about the ear location context within the image. Then an ear region filtering approach is proposed to extract the correct ear region and eliminate the false positives automatically. In an experiment with a test set of 200 web images (with variable photographic conditions, 98% of ears were accurately detected. Experiments were likewise conducted on the Collection J2 of University of Notre Dame Biometrics Database (UND-J2 and University of Beira Interior Ear dataset (UBEAR, which contain large occlusion, scale, and pose variations. Detection rates of 100% and 98.22%, respectively, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  5. Scale size and life time of energy conversion regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hamrin

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, and in a companion paper by Hamrin et al. (2009 [Occurrence and location of concentrated load and generator regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet], we investigate localized energy conversion regions (ECRs in Earth's plasma sheet. From more than 80 Cluster plasma sheet crossings (660 h data at the altitude of about 15–20 RE in the summer and fall of 2001, we have identified 116 Concentrated Load Regions (CLRs and 35 Concentrated Generator Regions (CGRs. By examining variations in the power density, E·J, where E is the electric field and J is the current density obtained by Cluster, we have estimated typical values of the scale size and life time of the CLRs and the CGRs. We find that a majority of the observed ECRs are rather stationary in space, but varying in time. Assuming that the ECRs are cylindrically shaped and equal in size, we conclude that the typical scale size of the ECRs is 2 RE≲ΔSECR≲5 RE. The ECRs hence occupy a significant portion of the mid altitude plasma sheet. Moreover, the CLRs appear to be somewhat larger than the CGRs. The life time of the ECRs are of the order of 1–10 min, consistent with the large scale magnetotail MHD simulations of Birn and Hesse (2005. The life time of the CGRs is somewhat shorter than for the CLRs. On time scales of 1–10 min, we believe that ECRs rise and vanish in significant regions of the plasma sheet, possibly oscillating between load and generator character. It is probable that at least some of the observed ECRs oscillate energy back and forth in the plasma sheet instead of channeling it to the ionosphere.

  6. Outer region scaling using the freestream velocity for nonuniform open channel flow over gravel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Robert L.; Fox, James F.

    2017-06-01

    The theoretical basis for outer region scaling using the freestream velocity for nonuniform open channel flows over gravel is derived and tested for the first time. Owing to the gradual expansion of the flow within the nonuniform case presented, it is hypothesized that the flow can be defined as an equilibrium turbulent boundary layer using the asymptotic invariance principle. The hypothesis is supported using similarity analysis to derive a solution, followed by further testing with experimental datasets. For the latter, 38 newly collected experimental velocity profiles across three nonuniform flows over gravel in a hydraulic flume are tested as are 43 velocity profiles previously published in seven peer-reviewed journal papers that focused on fluid mechanics of nonuniform open channel over gravel. The findings support the nonuniform flows as equilibrium defined by the asymptotic invariance principle, which is reflective of the consistency of the turbulent structure's form and function within the expanding flow. However, roughness impacts the flow structure when comparing across the published experimental datasets. As a secondary objective, we show how previously published mixed scales can be used to assist with freestream velocity scaling of the velocity deficit and thus empirically account for the roughness effects that extend into the outer region of the flow. One broader finding of this study is providing the theoretical context to relax the use of the elusive friction velocity when scaling nonuniform flows in gravel bed rivers; and instead to apply the freestream velocity. A second broader finding highlighted by our results is that scaling of nonuniform flow in gravel bed rivers is still not fully resolved theoretically since mixed scaling relies to some degree on empiricism. As researchers resolve the form and function of macroturbulence in the outer region, we hope to see the closing of this research gap.

  7. Regional scales of fire danger rating in the forest: improved technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Volokitina

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Wildland fires distribute unevenly in time and over area under the influence of weather and other factors. It is unfeasible to air patrol the whole forest area daily during a fire season as well as to keep all fire suppression forces constantly alert. Daily work and preparedness of forest fire protection services is regulated by the level of fire danger according to weather conditions (Nesterov’s index. PV-1 index, fire hazard class (Melekhov’s scale, regional scales (earlier called local scales. Unfortunately, there is still no unified comparable technique of making regional scales. As a result, it is difficult to maneuver forest fire protection resources, since the techniques currently used are not approved and not tested for their performance. They give fire danger rating incomparable even for neighboring regions. The paper analyzes the state-of-the-art in Russia and abroad. It is stated the irony is that with factors of fire danger measured quantitatively, the fire danger itself as a function has no quantitative expression. Thus, selection of an absolute criteria is of high importance for improvement of daily fire danger rating. On the example of the Chunsky forest ranger station (Krasnoyarsk Krai, an improved technique is suggested of making comparable local scales of forest fire danger rating based on an absolute criterion of fire danger rating – a probable density of active fires per million ha. A method and an algorithm are described of automatized local scales of fire danger that should facilitate effective creation of similar scales for any forest ranger station or aviation regional office using a database on forest fires and weather conditions. The information system of distant monitoring by Federal Forestry Agency of Russia is analyzed for its application in making local scales. To supplement the existing weather station net it is suggested that automatic compact weather stations or, if the latter is not possible, simple

  8. N2O emissions due to nitrogen fertilizer applications in two regions of sugarcane cultivation in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Signor, D; Cerri, C E P; Conant, R

    2013-01-01

    Among the main greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O), N 2 O has the highest global warming potential. N 2 O emission is mainly connected to agricultural activities, increasing as nitrogen concentrations increase in the soil with nitrogen fertilizer application. We evaluated N 2 O emissions due to application of increasing doses of ammonium nitrate and urea in two sugarcane fields in the mid-southern region of Brazil: Piracicaba (São Paulo state) and Goianésia (Goiás state). In Piracicaba, N 2 O emissions exponentially increased with increasing N doses and were similar for urea and ammonium nitrate up to a dose of 107.9 kg ha −1 of N. From there on, emissions exponentially increased for ammonium nitrate, whereas for urea they stabilized. In Goianésia, N 2 O emissions were lower, although the behavior was similar to that at the Piracicaba site. Ammonium nitrate emissions increased linearly with N dose and urea emissions were adjusted to a quadratic equation with a maximum amount of 113.9 kg N ha −1 . This first effort to measure fertilizer induced emissions in Brazilian sugarcane production not only helps to elucidate the behavior of N 2 O emissions promoted by different N sources frequently used in Brazilian sugarcane fields but also can be useful for future Brazilian ethanol carbon footprint studies. (letter)

  9. Characteristics of Atmosphere-Ocean CO2 Exchange due to Typhoon Activities over the East Asian Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, G.; Cho, C. H.; Lim, D. H.; Sun, M.; Lee, J.; Byun, Y. H.; Lee, J.

    2014-12-01

    Although the oceans are generally known as a net carbon sink in global sense, it is expected that CO₂release from oceans can occur locally depending on specific weather. This study addresses investigation of change in CO2 exchange between atmosphere and ocean due to typhoon activities, using "Carbon Tracker-Asia (CTA)". The CTA has constructed and managed at National Institute of Meteorological Research(NIMR) based on Carbon Tracker developed by NOAA. In order to examine effect of typhoon on change in air-sea CO2 exchange, we selected several cases which typhoon approached to Korean peninsula in the summertime and their tracks are similar to each other. Also, we analyzed difference between CO2 flux along typhoon tracks and other adjacent region not to be directly affected by typhoon in these cases. There is a difference in ocean fluxes around 15 gC/m²yr over strong typhoon areas compared to other areas. This difference varied with the wind speeds, the correlation coefficient between the ocean and the wind flux was found 0.7. Changes in carbon flux to affect the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere near surface instantly.

  10. A Direct Carotid-Cavernous Fistula due to Penetrating Trauma by a Knitting Needle to the Temporal Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selcuk Gocmen

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Traumatic carotid-cavernous and #64257;stulas (CCF usually occur after closed head injuries. In addition, CCFs can also be caused by penetrating injuries with stab or gunshot injuries. We present the case of traumatic CCF that was caused with a knitting needle directly penetrating through the temporal region. A 46-year-old man consulted with a progressive left swollen eye. His head computed tomography (CT revealed a left temporal lobe contusion and fracture of the left temporal bone. Digital subtraction angiography (DSA showed a direct high-flow fistula (Type-A lesion. After the balloon occlusion test, which was well tolerated by the patient, the internal carotid artery was occluded by the interventional radiologist. A review of the literature demonstrated that all of the traumatic CCFs occurred due to penetrating stab injuries through the orbita. To our knowledge, such a case has not been previously reported. [Arch Clin Exp Surg 2012; 1(4.000: 261-264

  11. Analysis of disability indicators due to occupational diseases in the Lviv region: problems and perspectives of the decision.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Borisova

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Disability is a social phenomenon that can not be ruled out by any society. The potential of society in combating the growth of disability – as a social evil – is determined not only by the degree of understanding of this problem but mainly by economic resources. The risk of developing oc­cupational diseases in the coal industry is 5-10 times higher than in other branches of industry. In Ukraine, about 3 million people work under the harmful conditions of production, 60.0% of them are miners. The study analyzed the dy­namics of disability as a result of occupational diseases in the Lviv region for the period 2015-2017. The results of the study prove that the disability indicators due to occupational diseases tend to grow. The ways to overcome this unfa­vorable tendency should be state measures on improvement of normative and legal documents, coherence between dif­ferent state institutions and strengthening effective state control over hygiene norms in industries with harmful factors.

  12. Developments in regional scale simulation: modelling ecologically sustainable development in the Northern Territory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moffatt, I.

    1992-01-01

    This paper outlines one way in which researchers can make a positive methodological contribution to the debate on ecologically sustainable development (ESD) by integrating dynamic modelling and geographical information systems to form the basis for regional scale simulations. Some of the orthodox uses of Geographic Information System (GIS) are described and it is argued that most applications do not incorporate process based causal models. A description of a pilot study into developing a processed base model of ESD in the Northern Territory is given. This dynamic process based simulation model consists of two regions namely the 'Top End' and the 'Central' district. Each region consists of ten sub-sectors and the pattern of land use represents a common sector to both regions. The role of environmental defence expenditure, including environmental rehabilitation of uranium mines, in the model is noted. Similarly, it is hypothesized that the impact of exogenous changes such as the greenhouse effect and global economic fluctuations can have a differential impact on the behaviour of several sectors of the model. Some of the problems associated with calibrating and testing the model are reviewed. Finally, it is suggested that further refinement of this model can be achieved with the pooling of data sets and the development of PC based transputers for more detailed and accurate regional scale simulations. When fully developed it is anticipated that this pilot model can be of service to environmental managers and other groups involved in promoting ESD in the Northern Territory. 54 refs., 6 figs

  13. Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Agriculture on a Regional Scale

    OpenAIRE

    Agnieszka Wysocka-Czubaszek; Robert Czubaszek; Sławomir Roj-Rojewski; Piotr Banaszuk

    2018-01-01

    Nowadays, agriculture has to meet the growing food demand together with high requirements of environmental protection, especially regarding the climate change. The greenhouse gas emissions differ not only on a global, but also on a regional scale, and mitigation strategies are effective when they are adapted properly. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to present the results of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions inventory on a regional level in Poland in years 1999-2015. The CH4...

  14. Constraining the global carbon budget from global to regional scales - The measurement challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francey, R.J.; Rayner, P.J.; Allison, C.E.

    2002-01-01

    The Global Carbon Cycle can be modelled by a Bayesian synthesis inversion technique, where measured atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and isotopic compositions are analysed by use of an atmospheric transport model and estimates of regional sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon. The uncertainty associated to carbon flux estimates even on a regional scale can be improved considerably using the inversion technique. In this approach, besides the necessary control on the precision of atmospheric transport models and on the constraints for surface fluxes, an important component is the calibration of atmospheric CO 2 concentration and isotope measurements. The recent improved situation in respect to data comparability is discussed using results of conducted interlaboratory comparison exercises and larger scale calibration programs are proposed for the future to further improve the comparability of analytical data. (author)

  15. Environmental determinants of woody plant diversity at a regional scale in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Qian

    Full Text Available Understanding what drives the geographic variation of species richness across the globe is a fundamental goal of ecology and biogeography. Environmental variables have been considered as drivers of global diversity patterns but there is no consensus among ecologists on what environmental variables are primary drivers of the geographic variation of species richness. Here, I examine the relationship of woody plant species richness at a regional scale in China with sixteen environmental variables representing energy availability, water availability, energy-water balance, seasonality, and habitat heterogeneity. I found that temperature seasonality is the best predictor of woody species richness in China. Other important environmental variables include annual precipitation, mean temperature of the coldest month, and potential evapotranspiration. The best model explains 85% of the variation in woody plant species richness at the regional scale in China.

  16. Contextual Multi-Scale Region Convolutional 3D Network for Activity Detection

    KAUST Repository

    Bai, Yancheng

    2018-01-28

    Activity detection is a fundamental problem in computer vision. Detecting activities of different temporal scales is particularly challenging. In this paper, we propose the contextual multi-scale region convolutional 3D network (CMS-RC3D) for activity detection. To deal with the inherent temporal scale variability of activity instances, the temporal feature pyramid is used to represent activities of different temporal scales. On each level of the temporal feature pyramid, an activity proposal detector and an activity classifier are learned to detect activities of specific temporal scales. Temporal contextual information is fused into activity classifiers for better recognition. More importantly, the entire model at all levels can be trained end-to-end. Our CMS-RC3D detector can deal with activities at all temporal scale ranges with only a single pass through the backbone network. We test our detector on two public activity detection benchmarks, THUMOS14 and ActivityNet. Extensive experiments show that the proposed CMS-RC3D detector outperforms state-of-the-art methods on THUMOS14 by a substantial margin and achieves comparable results on ActivityNet despite using a shallow feature extractor.

  17. Contextual Multi-Scale Region Convolutional 3D Network for Activity Detection

    KAUST Repository

    Bai, Yancheng; Xu, Huijuan; Saenko, Kate; Ghanem, Bernard

    2018-01-01

    Activity detection is a fundamental problem in computer vision. Detecting activities of different temporal scales is particularly challenging. In this paper, we propose the contextual multi-scale region convolutional 3D network (CMS-RC3D) for activity detection. To deal with the inherent temporal scale variability of activity instances, the temporal feature pyramid is used to represent activities of different temporal scales. On each level of the temporal feature pyramid, an activity proposal detector and an activity classifier are learned to detect activities of specific temporal scales. Temporal contextual information is fused into activity classifiers for better recognition. More importantly, the entire model at all levels can be trained end-to-end. Our CMS-RC3D detector can deal with activities at all temporal scale ranges with only a single pass through the backbone network. We test our detector on two public activity detection benchmarks, THUMOS14 and ActivityNet. Extensive experiments show that the proposed CMS-RC3D detector outperforms state-of-the-art methods on THUMOS14 by a substantial margin and achieves comparable results on ActivityNet despite using a shallow feature extractor.

  18. Matching soil grid unit resolutions with polygon unit scales for DNDC modelling of regional SOC pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H. D.; Yu, D. S.; Ni, Y. L.; Zhang, L. M.; Shi, X. Z.

    2015-03-01

    Matching soil grid unit resolution with polygon unit map scale is important to minimize uncertainty of regional soil organic carbon (SOC) pool simulation as their strong influences on the uncertainty. A series of soil grid units at varying cell sizes were derived from soil polygon units at the six map scales of 1:50 000 (C5), 1:200 000 (D2), 1:500 000 (P5), 1:1 000 000 (N1), 1:4 000 000 (N4) and 1:14 000 000 (N14), respectively, in the Tai lake region of China. Both format soil units were used for regional SOC pool simulation with DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) process-based model, which runs span the time period 1982 to 2000 at the six map scales, respectively. Four indices, soil type number (STN) and area (AREA), average SOC density (ASOCD) and total SOC stocks (SOCS) of surface paddy soils simulated with the DNDC, were attributed from all these soil polygon and grid units, respectively. Subjecting to the four index values (IV) from the parent polygon units, the variation of an index value (VIV, %) from the grid units was used to assess its dataset accuracy and redundancy, which reflects uncertainty in the simulation of SOC. Optimal soil grid unit resolutions were generated and suggested for the DNDC simulation of regional SOC pool, matching with soil polygon units map scales, respectively. With the optimal raster resolution the soil grid units dataset can hold the same accuracy as its parent polygon units dataset without any redundancy, when VIV indices was assumed as criteria to the assessment. An quadratic curve regression model y = -8.0 × 10-6x2 + 0.228x + 0.211 (R2 = 0.9994, p < 0.05) was revealed, which describes the relationship between optimal soil grid unit resolution (y, km) and soil polygon unit map scale (1:x). The knowledge may serve for grid partitioning of regions focused on the investigation and simulation of SOC pool dynamics at certain map scale.

  19. Regional-scale modeling of near-ground ozone in the Central East China, source attributions and an assessment of outflow to East Asia The role of regional-scale transport during MTX2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.; Wang, Z.; Akimoto, H.; Yamaji, K.; Takigawa, M.; Pochanart, P.; Liu, Y.; Kanaya, Y.

    2008-07-01

    A 3-D regional chemical transport model, the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System (NAQPMS), with an on-line tracer tagging module was applied to study the source of the near-ground (pollutants. In particular, the model captured highly polluted and clean cases well. The simulated near-ground ozone over CEC is 60 85 ppbv (parts per billion by volume), higher than those (20 50 ppbv) in Japan and over the North Pacific. The simulated tagged tracer indicates that the regional-scale transport of chemically produced ozone over other areas in CEC contributes to the most fractions (49%) of the near-ground mean ozone at Mt. Tai in June, rather than the in-situ photochemistry (12%). Due to high anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, the contributions of the ground ozone from the southern part of CEC plays the most important role (32.4 ppbv, 37.9% of total ozone) in the monthly mean ozone concentration at Mt. Tai, which even reached 59 ppbv (62%) on 6 7 June 2006. The monthly mean horizontal distribution of chemically produced ozone from various source regions indicates that the spatial distribution of O3 over CEC is controlled by the photochemical reactions. In addition, the regional-scale transport of pollutants also plays an important role in the spatial and temporal distribution of ozone over CEC. The chemically produced ozone from the southern part of the study region can be transported northeastwardly to the northern rim of CEC. The mean contribution is 5 10 ppbv, and it can reach 25 ppbv during high ozone events. This work also studied the outflow of CEC ozone and its precursors, as well as their influences and contributions to the ozone level over adjacent regions/countries. It shows that the contribution of CEC ozone to mean ozone mixing ratios over Korea Peninsula and Japan is 5 15 ppbv, of which about half was due to the direct transport of ozone from CEC and half was contributed by the ozone produced locally by the transported ozone precursors from CEC.

  20. Regional and landscape-scale variability of Landsat-observed vegetation dynamics in northwest Siberian tundra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frost, Gerald V; Epstein, Howard E; Walker, Donald A

    2014-01-01

    Widespread increases in Arctic tundra productivity have been documented for decades using coarse-scale satellite observations, but finer-scale observations indicate that changes have been very uneven, with a high degree of landscape- and regional-scale heterogeneity. Here we analyze time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observed by Landsat (1984–2012), to assess landscape- and regional-scale variability of tundra vegetation dynamics in the northwest Siberian Low Arctic, a little-studied region with varied soils, landscape histories, and permafrost attributes. We also estimate spatio-temporal rates of land-cover change associated with expansion of tall alder (Alnus) shrublands, by integrating Landsat time-series with very-high-resolution imagery dating to the mid-1960s. We compiled Landsat time-series for eleven widely-distributed landscapes, and performed linear regression of NDVI values on a per-pixel basis. We found positive net NDVI trends (‘greening’) in nine of eleven landscapes. Net greening occurred in alder shrublands in all landscapes, and strong greening tended to correspond to shrublands that developed since the 1960s. Much of the spatial variability of greening within landscapes was linked to landscape physiography and permafrost attributes, while between-landscape variability largely corresponded to differences in surficial geology. We conclude that continued increases in tundra productivity in the region are likely in upland tundra landscapes with fine-textured, cryoturbated soils; these areas currently tend to support discontinuous vegetation cover, but are highly susceptible to rapid increases in vegetation cover, as well as land-cover changes associated with the development of tall shrublands. (paper)

  1. Evaluation of performance of seasonal precipitation prediction at regional scale over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, U. C.; Nageswararao, M. M.; Sinha, P.; Nair, A.; Singh, A.; Rai, R. K.; Kar, S. C.; Ramesh, K. J.; Singh, K. K.; Ghosh, K.; Rathore, L. S.; Sharma, R.; Kumar, A.; Dhekale, B. S.; Maurya, R. K. S.; Sahoo, R. K.; Dash, G. P.

    2018-03-01

    The seasonal scale precipitation amount is an important ingredient in planning most of the agricultural practices (such as a type of crops, and showing and harvesting schedules). India being an agroeconomic country, the seasonal scale prediction of precipitation is directly linked to the socioeconomic growth of the nation. At present, seasonal precipitation prediction at regional scale is a challenging task for the scientific community. In the present study, an attempt is made to develop multi-model dynamical-statistical approach for seasonal precipitation prediction at the regional scale (meteorological subdivisions) over India for four prominent seasons which are winter (from December to February; DJF), pre-monsoon (from March to May; MAM), summer monsoon (from June to September; JJAS), and post-monsoon (from October to December; OND). The present prediction approach is referred as extended range forecast system (ERFS). For this purpose, precipitation predictions from ten general circulation models (GCMs) are used along with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall analysis data from 1982 to 2008 for evaluation of the performance of the GCMs, bias correction of the model results, and development of the ERFS. An extensive evaluation of the performance of the ERFS is carried out with dependent data (1982-2008) as well as independent predictions for the period 2009-2014. In general, the skill of the ERFS is reasonably better and consistent for all the seasons and different regions over India as compared to the GCMs and their simple mean. The GCM products failed to explain the extreme precipitation years, whereas the bias-corrected GCM mean and the ERFS improved the prediction and well represented the extremes in the hindcast period. The peak intensity, as well as regions of maximum precipitation, is better represented by the ERFS than the individual GCMs. The study highlights the improvement of forecast skill of the ERFS over 34 meteorological subdivisions

  2. Towards a real-time susceptibility assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides on a regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Montrasio

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of landslide risk management, it appears relevant to assess, both in space and in time, the triggering of rainfall-induced shallow landslides, in order to prevent damages due to these kind of disasters. In this context, the use of real-time landslide early warning systems has been attracting more and more attention from the scientific community. This paper deals with the application, on a regional scale, of two physically-based stability models: SLIP (Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction and TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability analysis. A back analysis of some recent case-histories of soil slips which occurred in the territory of the central Emilian Apennine, Emilia Romagna Region (Northern Italy is carried out and the main results are shown. The study area is described from geological and climatic viewpoints. The acquisition of geospatial information regarding the topography, the soil properties and the local landslide inventory is also explained.

    The paper outlines the main features of the SLIP model and the basic assumptions of TRIGRS. Particular attention is devoted to the discussion of the input data, which have been stored and managed through a Geographic Information System (GIS platform. Results of the SLIP model on a regional scale, over a one year time interval, are finally presented. The results predicted by the SLIP model are analysed both in terms of safety factor (Fs maps, corresponding to particular rainfall events, and in terms of time-varying percentage of unstable areas over the considered time interval. The paper compares observed landslide localizations with those predicted by the SLIP model. A further quantitative comparison between SLIP and TRIGRS, both applied to the most important event occurred during the analysed period, is presented. The limits of the SLIP model, mainly due to some restrictions of simplifying the physically

  3. The Limits of Polycentrism at the City-regional Scale: The case of Luxembourg

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoine Decoville

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Over the last fifteen years, promoters of the European spatial planning policy have presented polycentrism as the most promising strategy for answering the challenge of a more even spatial development. However, there is still no empirical evidence proving that this conceptual tool is adaptable to all scales. In this paper, we propose two different approaches of urban hierarchy with regards to its capacity to structure spatial development at a city-regional scale: the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. The first one depicts a classical urban hierarchy based on the location of urban amenities. The second one, which takes into account the accessibility to these amenities, shows the polycentric model in a more nuanced manner. Our results underline the differences between these two models and call for caution with respect to the adoption of the polycentric model at this spatial scale, since it could potentially lead to an increase in urban sprawl.

  4. Algorithm 873: LSTRS: MATLAB Software for Large-Scale Trust-Region Subproblems and Regularization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas Larrazabal, Marielba de la Caridad; Santos, Sandra A.; Sorensen, Danny C.

    2008-01-01

    A MATLAB 6.0 implementation of the LSTRS method is resented. LSTRS was described in Rojas, M., Santos, S.A., and Sorensen, D.C., A new matrix-free method for the large-scale trust-region subproblem, SIAM J. Optim., 11(3):611-646, 2000. LSTRS is designed for large-scale quadratic problems with one...... at each step. LSTRS relies on matrix-vector products only and has low and fixed storage requirements, features that make it suitable for large-scale computations. In the MATLAB implementation, the Hessian matrix of the quadratic objective function can be specified either explicitly, or in the form...... of a matrix-vector multiplication routine. Therefore, the implementation preserves the matrix-free nature of the method. A description of the LSTRS method and of the MATLAB software, version 1.2, is presented. Comparisons with other techniques and applications of the method are also included. A guide...

  5. Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M

    2004-03-01

    During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale.

  6. Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M.

    2004-01-01

    During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale

  7. Modeling and validation of on-road CO2 emissions inventories at the urban regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brondfield, Max N.; Hutyra, Lucy R.; Gately, Conor K.; Raciti, Steve M.; Peterson, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    On-road emissions are a major contributor to rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. In this study, we applied a downscaling methodology based on commonly available spatial parameters to model on-road CO 2 emissions at the 1 × 1 km scale for the Boston, MA region and tested our approach with surface-level CO 2 observations. Using two previously constructed emissions inventories with differing spatial patterns and underlying data sources, we developed regression models based on impervious surface area and volume-weighted road density that could be scaled to any resolution. We found that the models accurately reflected the inventories at their original scales (R 2 = 0.63 for both models) and exhibited a strong relationship with observed CO 2 mixing ratios when downscaled across the region. Moreover, the improved spatial agreement of the models over the original inventories confirmed that either product represents a viable basis for downscaling in other metropolitan regions, even with limited data. - Highlights: ► We model two on-road CO 2 emissions inventories using common spatial parameters. ► Independent CO 2 observations are used to validate the emissions models. ► The downscaled emissions models capture the urban spatial heterogeneity of Boston. ► Emissions estimates show a strong non-linear relationship with observed CO 2 . ► Our study is repeatable, even in areas with limited data. - This work presents a new, reproducible methodology for downscaling and validating on-road CO 2 emissions estimates.

  8. Regional processes in mangrove ecosystems: Spatial scaling relationships, biomass, and turnover rates following catastrophic disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, G.A.; Smith, T. J.; Whelan, K.R.T.; Doyle, T.W.

    2006-01-01

    Physiological processes and local-scale structural dynamics of mangroves are relatively well studied. Regional-scale processes, however, are not as well understood. Here we provide long-term data on trends in structure and forest turnover at a large scale, following hurricane damage in mangrove ecosystems of South Florida, U.S.A. Twelve mangrove vegetation plots were monitored at periodic intervals, between October 1992 and March 2005. Mangrove forests of this region are defined by a -1.5 scaling relationship between mean stem diameter and stem density, mirroring self-thinning theory for mono-specific stands. This relationship is reflected in tree size frequency scaling exponents which, through time, have exhibited trends toward a community average that is indicative of full spatial resource utilization. These trends, together with an asymptotic standing biomass accumulation, indicate that coastal mangrove ecosystems do adhere to size-structured organizing principles as described for upland tree communities. Regenerative dynamics are different between areas inside and outside of the primary wind-path of Hurricane Andrew which occurred in 1992. Forest dynamic turnover rates, however, are steady through time. This suggests that ecological, more-so than structural factors, control forest productivity. In agreement, the relative mean rate of biomass growth exhibits an inverse relationship with the seasonal range of porewater salinities. The ecosystem average in forest scaling relationships may provide a useful investigative tool of mangrove community biomass relationships, as well as offer a robust indicator of general ecosystem health for use in mangrove forest ecosystem management and restoration. ?? Springer 2006.

  9. Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Stenni

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate trends in the Antarctic region remain poorly characterized, owing to the brevity and scarcity of direct climate observations and the large magnitude of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. Here, within the framework of the PAGES Antarctica2k working group, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records from Antarctica, consisting of 112 records. We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (δ18O composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5- and 10-year resolution, for seven climatically distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent. Following earlier work of the Antarctica2k working group, we also produce composites and reconstructions for the broader regions of East Antarctica, West Antarctica and the whole continent. We use three methods for our temperature reconstructions: (i a temperature scaling based on the δ18O–temperature relationship output from an ECHAM5-wiso model simulation nudged to ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2013, and adjusted for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to borehole temperature data, (ii a temperature scaling of the isotopic normalized anomalies to the variance of the regional reanalysis temperature and (iii a composite-plus-scaling approach used in a previous continent-scale reconstruction of Antarctic temperature since 1 CE but applied to the new Antarctic ice core database. Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE, we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval occurs from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the

  10. Lake nutrient stoichiometry is less predictable than nutrient concentrations at regional and sub-continental scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Sarah M; Oliver, Samantha K; Lapierre, Jean-Francois; Stanley, Emily H; Jones, John R; Wagner, Tyler; Soranno, Patricia A

    2017-07-01

    Production in many ecosystems is co-limited by multiple elements. While a known suite of drivers associated with nutrient sources, nutrient transport, and internal processing controls concentrations of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in lakes, much less is known about whether the drivers of single nutrient concentrations can also explain spatial or temporal variation in lake N:P stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry might be more complex than predicting concentrations of individual elements because some drivers have similar relationships with N and P, leading to a weak relationship with their ratio. Further, the dominant controls on elemental concentrations likely vary across regions, resulting in context dependent relationships between drivers, lake nutrients and their ratios. Here, we examine whether known drivers of N and P concentrations can explain variation in N:P stoichiometry, and whether explaining variation in stoichiometry differs across regions. We examined drivers of N:P in ~2,700 lakes at a sub-continental scale and two large regions nested within the sub-continental study area that have contrasting ecological context, including differences in the dominant type of land cover (agriculture vs. forest). At the sub-continental scale, lake nutrient concentrations were correlated with nutrient loading and lake internal processing, but stoichiometry was only weakly correlated to drivers of lake nutrients. At the regional scale, drivers that explained variation in nutrients and stoichiometry differed between regions. In the Midwestern U.S. region, dominated by agricultural land use, lake depth and the percentage of row crop agriculture were strong predictors of stoichiometry because only phosphorus was related to lake depth and only nitrogen was related to the percentage of row crop agriculture. In contrast, all drivers were related to N and P in similar ways in the Northeastern U.S. region, leading to weak relationships between drivers and stoichiometry

  11. Risk-based prioritization of ground water threatening point sources at catchment and regional scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overheu, Niels Døssing; Tuxen, Nina; Flyvbjerg, John

    2014-01-01

    framework has been developed to enable a systematic and transparent risk assessment and prioritization of contaminant point sources, considering the local, catchment, or regional scales (Danish EPA, 2011, 2012). The framework has been tested in several catchments in Denmark with different challenges...... and needs, and two of these are presented. Based on the lessons learned, the Danish EPA has prepared a handbook to guide the user through the steps in a risk-based prioritization (Danish EPA, 2012). It provides guidance on prioritization both in an administratively defined area such as a Danish Region...... of the results are presented using the case studies as examples. The methodology was developed by a broad industry group including the Danish EPA, the Danish Regions, the Danish Nature Agency, the Technical University of Denmark, and consultants — and the framework has been widely accepted by the professional...

  12. Effects of land use on lake nutrients: The importance of scale, hydrologic connectivity, and region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soranno, Patricia A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Wagner, Tyler; Webster, Katherine E.; Bremigan, Mary Tate

    2015-01-01

    Catchment land uses, particularly agriculture and urban uses, have long been recognized as major drivers of nutrient concentrations in surface waters. However, few simple models have been developed that relate the amount of catchment land use to downstream freshwater nutrients. Nor are existing models applicable to large numbers of freshwaters across broad spatial extents such as regions or continents. This research aims to increase model performance by exploring three factors that affect the relationship between land use and downstream nutrients in freshwater: the spatial extent for measuring land use, hydrologic connectivity, and the regional differences in both the amount of nutrients and effects of land use on them. We quantified the effects of these three factors that relate land use to lake total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) in 346 north temperate lakes in 7 regions in Michigan, USA. We used a linear mixed modeling framework to examine the importance of spatial extent, lake hydrologic class, and region on models with individual lake nutrients as the response variable, and individual land use types as the predictor variables. Our modeling approach was chosen to avoid problems of multi-collinearity among predictor variables and a lack of independence of lakes within regions, both of which are common problems in broad-scale analyses of freshwaters. We found that all three factors influence land use-lake nutrient relationships. The strongest evidence was for the effect of lake hydrologic connectivity, followed by region, and finally, the spatial extent of land use measurements. Incorporating these three factors into relatively simple models of land use effects on lake nutrients should help to improve predictions and understanding of land use-lake nutrient interactions at broad scales.

  13. Significant cooling effect on the surface due to soot particles over Brahmaputra River Valley region, India: An impact on regional climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiwari, S.; Kumar, R.; Tunved, P.; Singh, S.; Panicker, A.S.

    2016-01-01

    Black carbon (BC) is an important atmospheric aerosol constituent that affects the climate by absorbing (directly) the sunlight and modifying cloud characteristics (indirectly). Here, we present first time yearlong measurements of BC and carbon monoxide (CO) from an urban location of Guwahati located in the Brahmaputra River valley (BRV) in the northeast region of India from 1st July 2013 to 30th June 2014. Daily BC concentrations varied within the range of 2.86 to 11.56 μg m"−"3 with an annual average of 7.17 ± 1.89 μg m"−"3_, while, CO varied from 0.19 to 1.20 ppm with a mean value of 0.51 ± 0.19 ppm during the study period. The concentrations of BC (8.37 μg m"−"3) and CO (0.67 ppm) were ~ 39% and ~ 55% higher during the dry months (October to March) than the wet months (April to September) suggesting that seasonal changes in meteorology and emission sources play an important role in controlling these species. The seasonal ΔBC/ΔCO ratios were highest (lowest) in the pre-monsoon (winter) 18.1 ± 1.4 μg m"−"3 ppmv"−"1 (12.6 ± 2.2 μg m"−"3 ppmv"−"1) which indicate the combustion of biofuel/biomass as well as direct emissions from fossil fuel during the pre-monsoon season. The annual BC emission was estimated to be 2.72 Gg in and around Guwahati which is about 44% lower than the mega city ‘Delhi’ (4.86 Gg). During the study period, the annual mean radiative forcing (RF) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) for clear skies of BC was + 9.5 Wm"−"2, however, the RF value at the surface (SFC) was − 21.1 Wm"−"2 which indicates the net warming and cooling effects, respectively. The highest RF at SFC was in the month of April (− 30 Wm"−"2) which is coincident with the highest BC mass level. The BC atmospheric radiative forcing (ARF) was + 30.16 (annual mean) Wm"−"2 varying from + 23.1 to + 43.8 Wm"−"2. The annual mean atmospheric heating rate (AHR) due to the BC aerosols was 0.86 K day"−"1 indicates the enhancement in radiation

  14. Significant cooling effect on the surface due to soot particles over Brahmaputra River Valley region, India: An impact on regional climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tiwari, S., E-mail: smbtiwari@tropmet.res.in [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, New Delhi Branch, New Delhi 110060 (India); Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-10691 (Sweden); Kumar, R. [Research Application Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Tunved, P. [Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-10691 (Sweden); Singh, S. [CSIR, Central Institute of Mining & Fuel Research, Dhanbad, Jharkhand 826001 (India); Panicker, A.S. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411008 (India)

    2016-08-15

    Black carbon (BC) is an important atmospheric aerosol constituent that affects the climate by absorbing (directly) the sunlight and modifying cloud characteristics (indirectly). Here, we present first time yearlong measurements of BC and carbon monoxide (CO) from an urban location of Guwahati located in the Brahmaputra River valley (BRV) in the northeast region of India from 1st July 2013 to 30th June 2014. Daily BC concentrations varied within the range of 2.86 to 11.56 μg m{sup −3} with an annual average of 7.17 ± 1.89 μg m{sup −3}{sub ,} while, CO varied from 0.19 to 1.20 ppm with a mean value of 0.51 ± 0.19 ppm during the study period. The concentrations of BC (8.37 μg m{sup −3}) and CO (0.67 ppm) were ~ 39% and ~ 55% higher during the dry months (October to March) than the wet months (April to September) suggesting that seasonal changes in meteorology and emission sources play an important role in controlling these species. The seasonal ΔBC/ΔCO ratios were highest (lowest) in the pre-monsoon (winter) 18.1 ± 1.4 μg m{sup −3} ppmv{sup −1} (12.6 ± 2.2 μg m{sup −3} ppmv{sup −1}) which indicate the combustion of biofuel/biomass as well as direct emissions from fossil fuel during the pre-monsoon season. The annual BC emission was estimated to be 2.72 Gg in and around Guwahati which is about 44% lower than the mega city ‘Delhi’ (4.86 Gg). During the study period, the annual mean radiative forcing (RF) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) for clear skies of BC was + 9.5 Wm{sup −2}, however, the RF value at the surface (SFC) was − 21.1 Wm{sup −2} which indicates the net warming and cooling effects, respectively. The highest RF at SFC was in the month of April (− 30 Wm{sup −2}) which is coincident with the highest BC mass level. The BC atmospheric radiative forcing (ARF) was + 30.16 (annual mean) Wm{sup −2} varying from + 23.1 to + 43.8 Wm{sup −2}. The annual mean atmospheric heating rate (AHR) due to the BC aerosols was 0.86 K

  15. Segmentation and fragmentation of melt jets due to generation of large-scale structures. Observation in low subcooling conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, Ken-ichiro; Yamada, Tsuyoshi

    1999-01-01

    In order to clarify a mechanism of melt-jet breakup and fragmentation entirely different from the mechanism of stripping, a series of experiments were carried out by using molten tin jets of 100 grams with initial temperatures from 250degC to 900degC. Molten tin jets with a small kinematic viscosity and a large thermal diffusivity were used to observe breakup and fragmentation of melt jets enhanced thermally and hydrodynamically. We observed jet columns with second-stage large-scale structures generated by the coalescence of large-scale structures recognized in the field of fluid mechanics. At a greater depth, the segmentation of jet columns between second-stage large-scale structures and the fragmentation of the segmented jet columns were observed. It is reasonable to consider that the segmentation and the fragmentation of jet columns are caused by the boiling of water hydrodynamically entrained within second-stage large-scale structures. (author)

  16. Estimation and applicability of attenuation characteristics for source parameters and scaling relations in the Garhwal Kumaun Himalaya region, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Rakesh; Paul, Ajay; Kumar, Arjun; Kumar, Parveen; Sundriyal, Y. P.

    2018-06-01

    Source parameters of the small to moderate earthquakes are significant for understanding the dynamic rupture process, the scaling relations of the earthquakes and for assessment of seismic hazard potential of a region. In this study, the source parameters were determined for 58 small to moderate size earthquakes (3.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.0) occurred during 2007-2015 in the Garhwal-Kumaun region. The estimated shear wave quality factor (Qβ(f)) values for each station at different frequencies have been applied to eliminate any bias in the determination of source parameters. The Qβ(f) values have been estimated by using coda wave normalization method in the frequency range 1.5-16 Hz. A frequency-dependent S wave quality factor relation is obtained as Qβ(f) = (152.9 ± 7) f(0.82±0.005) by fitting a power-law frequency dependence model for the estimated values over the whole study region. The spectral (low-frequency spectral level and corner frequency) and source (static stress drop, seismic moment, apparent stress and radiated energy) parameters are obtained assuming ω-2 source model. The displacement spectra are corrected for estimated frequency-dependent attenuation, site effect using spectral decay parameter "Kappa". The frequency resolution limit was resolved by quantifying the bias in corner frequencies, stress drop and radiated energy estimates due to finite-bandwidth effect. The data of the region shows shallow focused earthquakes with low stress drop. The estimation of Zúñiga parameter (ε) suggests the partial stress drop mechanism in the region. The observed low stress drop and apparent stress can be explained by partial stress drop and low effective stress model. Presence of subsurface fluid at seismogenic depth certainly manipulates the dynamics of the region. However, the limited event selection may strongly bias the scaling relation even after taking as much as possible precaution in considering effects of finite bandwidth, attenuation and site corrections

  17. Methodology for Air Quality Forecast Downscaling from Regional- to Street-Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Mahura, Alexander; Amstrup, Bjarne; Hansen Saas, Bent; Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Lorenzen, Thomas; Weismann, Jakob

    2010-05-01

    The most serious air pollution events occur in cities where there is a combination of high population density and air pollution, e.g. from vehicles. The pollutants can lead to serious human health problems, including asthma, irritation of the lungs, bronchitis, pneumonia, decreased resistance to respiratory infections, and premature death. In particular air pollution is associated with increase in cardiovascular disease and lung cancer. In 2000 WHO estimated that between 2.5 % and 11 % of total annual deaths are caused by exposure to air pollution. However, European-scale air quality models are not suited for local forecasts, as their grid-cell is typically of the order of 5 to 10km and they generally lack detailed representation of urban effects. Two suites are used in the framework of the EC FP7 project MACC (Monitoring of Atmosphere Composition and Climate) to demonstrate how downscaling from the European MACC ensemble to local-scale air quality forecast will be carried out: one will illustrate capabilities for the city of Copenhagen (Denmark); the second will focus on the city of Bucharest (Romania). This work is devoted to the first suite, where methodological aspects of downscaling from regional (European/ Denmark) to urban scale (Copenhagen), and from the urban down to street scale. The first results of downscaling according to the proposed methodology are presented. The potential for downscaling of European air quality forecasts by operating urban and street-level forecast models is evaluated. This will bring a strong support for continuous improvement of the regional forecast modelling systems for air quality in Europe, and underline clear perspectives for the future regional air quality core and downstream services for end-users. At the end of the MACC project, requirements on "how-to-do" downscaling of European air-quality forecasts to the city and street levels with different approaches will be formulated.

  18. Multi scale Disaster Risk Reduction Systems Space and Community based Experiences over HKH Region

    OpenAIRE

    Gurung, D. R.; Shrestha, M.; Shrestha, N.; Debnath, B.; Jishi, G.; Bajracharya, R.; Dhonju, H. K.; Pradhan, S.

    2014-01-01

    An increasing trend in the recurrence of natural disasters and associated impacts due to Floods, Glacier Lake out bursts, landslides and forest fire is reported over Hindu Kush Himalyan (HKH) region. Climate change and anthropogenic coupled factors are identified as primary factors for such increased vulnerability. The large degree of poverty, lack of infrastructure, poor accessibility and uncertainties involved in understanding high altitude land surface and climate dynamics poses s...

  19. Anthropogenic hydrological cycle disturbance at a regional scale: State-wide evapotranspiration trends (1979-2015) across Nebraska, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szilagyi, Jozsef

    2018-02-01

    Trends in monthly evapotranspiration (ET) rates across Nebraska, the most intensely irrigated state within the US, were calculated by the calibration-free version of the nonlinear complementary relationship of evaporation over the 1979-2015 period utilizing North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) net radiation, 10-m wind velocity, as well as Parameter Regression Independent Slope Model (PRISM) air- and dew-point temperature data. State-averaged modeled ET rates rose by 5.5 mm decade-1 due to the presence of wide-spread large-scale irrigation projects in accordance with a 2.4 mm decade-1 increase in PRISM precipitation (P) and a simultaneous -2.8 mm decade-1 drop in United States Geological Survey's state-averaged annual streamflow rates, raising the state-wide ET to P ratio from 0.89 to 0.91 over the modeled time-period. ET rates over irrigated crops increased by 7 mm decade-1 despite a -4.4 mm decade-1 drop in precipitation rates. A similar increase in ET rates (6 mm decade-1) required 8.1 mm decade-1 increase in precipitation rates across the non-irrigated Sand Hills of Nebraska. Published NARR ET rates are unable to pick up this unusual regional trend. Since an increase in precipitation rates should normally decrease the ET ratio, as predicted by the Budyko curve, this study yields evidence on how dramatically sustained large-scale irrigation can alter the regional hydrologic cycle not only through a) trivially depleting streamflow rates and/or lowering groundwater table levels; b) suppressing precipitation locally (while enhancing it a long distance downwind), but also; c) reversing the trajectory of the regional ET ratio under generally increasing trends of precipitation.

  20. Hydrologic connectivity and the contribution of stream headwaters to ecological integrity at regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Mary C.; Pringle, C.M.; Jackson, C.R.

    2007-01-01

    Cumulatively, headwater streams contribute to maintaining hydrologic connectivity and ecosystem integrity at regional scales. Hydrologic connectivity is the water-mediated transport of matter, energy and organisms within or between elements of the hydrologic cycle. Headwater streams compose over two-thirds of total stream length in a typical river drainage and directly connect the upland and riparian landscape to the rest of the stream ecosystem. Altering headwater streams, e.g., by channelization, diversion through pipes, impoundment and burial, modifies fluxes between uplands and downstream river segments and eliminates distinctive habitats. The large-scale ecological effects of altering headwaters are amplified by land uses that alter runoff and nutrient loads to streams, and by widespread dam construction on larger rivers (which frequently leaves free-flowing upstream portions of river systems essential to sustaining aquatic biodiversity). We discuss three examples of large-scale consequences of cumulative headwater alteration. Downstream eutrophication and coastal hypoxia result, in part, from agricultural practices that alter headwaters and wetlands while increasing nutrient runoff. Extensive headwater alteration is also expected to lower secondary productivity of river systems by reducing stream-system length and trophic subsidies to downstream river segments, affecting aquatic communities and terrestrial wildlife that utilize aquatic resources. Reduced viability of freshwater biota may occur with cumulative headwater alteration, including for species that occupy a range of stream sizes but for which headwater streams diversify the network of interconnected populations or enhance survival for particular life stages. Developing a more predictive understanding of ecological patterns that may emerge on regional scales as a result of headwater alterations will require studies focused on components and pathways that connect headwaters to river, coastal and

  1. A see-saw of pre-Columbian boom regions in southern Peru, determined by large-scale circulation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mächtle, B.; Schittek, K.; Forbriger, M.; Schäbitz, F.; Eitel, B.

    2012-04-01

    Environmental changes and cultural transitions during several periods of Peruvian history show a strong coincidence between humid and dry climatic oscillations and the rise and decline of cultures. It is noteworthy, that alternating periods of geo-ecological fragility and stability occurred in time and space between the coastal Nasca region (14.5° S) and the high Andean northern Titicaca basin, just a few hundred kilometers to the east. Based on a multi-proxy palynological and sedimentological approach to reconstruct palaeoenvironmental changes, we found that the Nasca region received a maximum of precipitation during the archaeological boom times of the Early Horizon and the Early Intermediate Period (800 BC - 650 AD, Paracas and Nasca cultures) as well as during the late intermediate period (1150-1450 AD), whereas, in contrast, the Titicaca region further to the south-east experienced drought and cultural depression during that times. During the Middle Horizon (650 - 1150 AD), the Tiwanaku agronomy and culture boomed in the Titicaca region and expanded to the west, contemporaneous with a raised lake level and more humid conditions. In the Nasca region, runoff for irrigation purposes was reduced and less reliable due to drought. Considering a coincidence between environmental and cultural changes, we state that success and decline of civilizations were controlled by hydrological oscillations, triggering fertility as well as a critical loss of natural resources. In response to spatial changing resources, cultural foci were shifted. Therefore, the success of pre-Columbian civilizations was closely coupled to areas of geo-ecological favorability, which were directly controlled by distinct regional impacts of large-scale circulation mechanisms, including El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Changes in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Bolivian anticyclone determined meridional shifts in moisture transport across the Andes, which

  2. Regionalized life cycle impact assessment of air pollution on the global scale: Damage to human health and vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Zelm, Rosalie; Preiss, Philipp; van Goethem, Thomas; Van Dingenen, Rita; Huijbregts, Mark

    2016-06-01

    We developed regionalized characterization factors (CFs) for human health damage from particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone, and for damage to vegetation from ozone, at the global scale. These factors can be used in the impact assessment phase of an environmental life cycle assessment. CFs express the overall damage of a certain pollutant per unit of emission of a precursor, i.e. primary PM2.5, nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). The global chemical transport model TM5 was used to calculate intake fractions of PM2.5 and ozone for 56 world regions covering the whole globe. Furthermore, region-specific effect and damage factors were derived, using mortality rates, background concentrations and years of life lost. The emission-weighted world average CF for primary PM2.5 emissions is 629 yr kton-1, varying up to 3 orders of magnitude over the regions. Larger CFs were obtained for emissions in central Asia and Europe, and smaller factors in Australia and South America. The world average CFs for PM2.5 from secondary aerosols, i.e. NOx, NH3, and SO2, is 67.2 to 183.4 yr kton-1. We found that the CFs for ozone human health damage are 2-4 orders of magnitude lower compared to the CFs for damage due to primary PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursor emissions. Human health damage due to the priority air pollutants considered in this study was 1.7·10-2 yr capita-1 worldwide in year 2010, with primary PM2.5 emissions as the main contributor (62%). The emission-weighted world average CF for ecosystem damage due to ozone was 2.5 km2 yr kton-1 for NMVOCs and 8.7 m2 yr kg-1 for NOx emissions, varying 2-3 orders of magnitude over the regions. Ecosystem damage due to the priority air pollutants considered in this study was 1.6·10-4 km2 capita-1 worldwide in 2010, with NOx as the main contributor (72%). The spatial range in CFs stresses the importance of including spatial variation in life cycle impact assessment of

  3. A Divide and Conquer Strategy for Scaling Weather Simulations with Multiple Regions of Interest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preeti Malakar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate and timely prediction of weather phenomena, such as hurricanes and flash floods, require high-fidelity compute intensive simulations of multiple finer regions of interest within a coarse simulation domain. Current weather applications execute these nested simulations sequentially using all the available processors, which is sub-optimal due to their sub-linear scalability. In this work, we present a strategy for parallel execution of multiple nested domain simulations based on partitioning the 2-D processor grid into disjoint rectangular regions associated with each domain. We propose a novel combination of performance prediction, processor allocation methods and topology-aware mapping of the regions on torus interconnects. Experiments on IBM Blue Gene systems using WRF show that the proposed strategies result in performance improvement of up to 33% with topology-oblivious mapping and up to additional 7% with topology-aware mapping over the default sequential strategy.

  4. Large-scale wind power in New Brunswick : a regional scenario study towards 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-08-01

    This paper discussed the large-scale development of wind power in New Brunswick and evaluated Danish experiences with wind development as a template for developing wind resources in the Maritimes region. The study showed that New Brunswick and the Maritimes region have good wind resources, and that the province will gain significant economic benefits from deploying between 5500 and 7500 MW of wind power capacity by 2025. Wind power development will contribute to the security of supply in the region and reduce air pollution. Carbon regulation and renewable portfolio standards will improve the competitiveness of wind power. Electricity generated by wind power plants in the Maritimes can be sold to other provinces in Canada, as well as to the heavily populated New England region of the United States. A high level of cooperation between markets in the Maritimes area and neighbouring New England and Quebec systems will be required in addition to load flow analyses of electricity systems. Denmark's experiences with developing wind power indicate that existing market designs must be restructured to allow for higher levels of competition. A strong system operator is required to integrate wind power into the system. It was concluded that strong political leadership is required to ensure the sustainable development of the region. 5 refs., 4 tabs., 9 figs

  5. Scale size and life time of energy conversion regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hamrin

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, and in a companion paper by Hamrin et al. (2009 [Occurrence and location of concentrated load and generator regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet], we investigate localized energy conversion regions (ECRs in Earth's plasma sheet. From more than 80 Cluster plasma sheet crossings (660 h data at the altitude of about 15–20 RE in the summer and fall of 2001, we have identified 116 Concentrated Load Regions (CLRs and 35 Concentrated Generator Regions (CGRs. By examining variations in the power density, E·J, where E is the electric field and J is the current density obtained by Cluster, we have estimated typical values of the scale size and life time of the CLRs and the CGRs. We find that a majority of the observed ECRs are rather stationary in space, but varying in time. Assuming that the ECRs are cylindrically shaped and equal in size, we conclude that the typical scale size of the ECRs is 2 RE≲ΔSECR≲5 RE. The ECRs hence occupy a significant portion of the mid altitude plasma sheet. Moreover, the CLRs appear to be somewhat larger than the CGRs. The life time of the ECRs are of the order of 1–10 min, consistent with the large scale magnetotail MHD simulations of Birn and Hesse (2005. The life time of the CGRs is somewhat shorter than for the CLRs. On time scales of 1–10 min, we believe that ECRs rise and vanish in significant regions of the plasma sheet, possibly oscillating between load and generator character. It is probable that at least some of the observed ECRs oscillate energy back and forth in the plasma sheet instead of channeling it to the ionosphere.

  6. Estimation of regional-scale groundwater flow properties in the Bengal Basin of India and Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, H.A.; Voss, C.I.

    2009-01-01

    Quantitative evaluation of management strategies for long-term supply of safe groundwater for drinking from the Bengal Basin aquifer (India and Bangladesh) requires estimation of the large-scale hydrogeologic properties that control flow. The Basin consists of a stratified, heterogeneous sequence of sediments with aquitards that may separate aquifers locally, but evidence does not support existence of regional confining units. Considered at a large scale, the Basin may be aptly described as a single aquifer with higher horizontal than vertical hydraulic conductivity. Though data are sparse, estimation of regional-scale aquifer properties is possible from three existing data types: hydraulic heads, 14C concentrations, and driller logs. Estimation is carried out with inverse groundwater modeling using measured heads, by model calibration using estimated water ages based on 14C, and by statistical analysis of driller logs. Similar estimates of hydraulic conductivities result from all three data types; a resulting typical value of vertical anisotropy (ratio of horizontal to vertical conductivity) is 104. The vertical anisotropy estimate is supported by simulation of flow through geostatistical fields consistent with driller log data. The high estimated value of vertical anisotropy in hydraulic conductivity indicates that even disconnected aquitards, if numerous, can strongly control the equivalent hydraulic parameters of an aquifer system. ?? US Government 2009.

  7. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Ni, J, E-mail: nan.lu@utoledo.ed, E-mail: burkhard.wilske@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jni@ibcas.ac.c, E-mail: ranjeet.john@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jiquan.chen@utoledo.ed [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43, D-14473 Potsdam (Germany)

    2009-10-15

    This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

  8. Regional-scale lateral carbon transport and CO2 evasion in temperate stream catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magin, Katrin; Somlai-Haase, Celia; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Lorke, Andreas

    2017-11-01

    Inland waters play an important role in regional to global-scale carbon cycling by transporting, processing and emitting substantial amounts of carbon, which originate mainly from their catchments. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between terrestrial net primary production (NPP) and the rate at which carbon is exported from the catchments in a temperate stream network. The analysis included more than 200 catchment areas in southwest Germany, ranging in size from 0.8 to 889 km2 for which CO2 evasion from stream surfaces and downstream transport with stream discharge were estimated from water quality monitoring data, while NPP in the catchments was obtained from a global data set based on remote sensing. We found that on average 13.9 g C m-2 yr-1 (corresponding to 2.7 % of terrestrial NPP) are exported from the catchments by streams and rivers, in which both CO2 evasion and downstream transport contributed about equally to this flux. The average carbon fluxes in the catchments of the study area resembled global and large-scale zonal mean values in many respects, including NPP, stream evasion and the carbon export per catchment area in the fluvial network. A review of existing studies on aquatic-terrestrial coupling in the carbon cycle suggests that the carbon export per catchment area varies in a relatively narrow range, despite a broad range of different spatial scales and hydrological characteristics of the study regions.

  9. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J; Ni, J

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

  10. Scaled equation of state parameters for gases in the critical region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sengers, J. M. H. L.; Greer, W. L.; Sengers, J. V.

    1976-01-01

    In the light of recent theoretical developments, the paper presents an accurate characterization of anomalous thermodynamic behavior of xenon, helium 4, helium 3, carbon dioxide, steam and oxygen in the critical region. This behavior is associated with long range fluctuations in the system and the physical properties depend primarily on a single variable, namely, the correlation length. A description of the thermodynamic behavior of fluids in terms of scaling laws is formulated, and the two successfully used scaled equations of state (NBS equation and Linear Model parametric equation) are compared. Methods for fitting both equations to experimental equation of state data are developed and formulated, and the optimum fit for each of the two scaled equations of the above gases are presented and the results are compared. By extending the experimental data for the above one-component fluids to partially miscible binary liquids, superfluid liquid helium, ferromagnets and solids exhibiting order-disorder transitions, the principle of universality is concluded. Finally by using this principle, the critical regions for nine additional fluids are described.

  11. Factors affecting distribution patterns of organic carbon in sediments at regional and national scales in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qingqing; Wang, Hui; Zhang, Yiran; Lal, Rattan; Wang, Renqing; Ge, Xiuli; Liu, Jian

    2017-07-14

    Wetlands are an important carbon reservoir pool in terrestrial ecosystems. Light fraction organic carbon (LFOC), heavy fraction organic carbon (HFOC), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were fractionated in sediment samples from the four wetlands (ZR: Zhaoniu River; ZRCW: Zhaoniu River Constructed Wetland; XR: Xinxue River; XRCW: Xinxue River Constructed Wetland). Organic carbon (OC) from rivers and coasts of China were retrieved and statistically analyzed. At regional scale, HFOC stably dominates the deposition of OC (95.4%), whereas DOC and LFOC in ZR is significantly higher than in ZRCW. Concentration of DOC is significantly higher in XRCW (30.37 mg/l) than that in XR (13.59 mg/l). DOC and HFOC notably distinguish between two sampling campaigns, and the deposition of carbon fractions are limited by low nitrogen input. At the national scale, OC attains the maximum of 2.29% at precipitation of 800 mm. OC has no significant difference among the three climate zones but significantly higher in river sediments than in coasts. Coastal OC increases from Bohai Sea (0.52%) to South Sea (0.70%) with a decrease in latitude. This study summarizes the factors affecting organic carbon storage in regional and national scale, and have constructive implications for carbon assessment, modelling, and management.

  12. Assessing the influence of watershed characteristics on chlorophyll a in waterbodies at global and regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woelmer, Whitney; Kao, Yu-Chun; Bunnell, David B.; Deines, Andrew M.; Bennion, David; Rogers, Mark W.; Brooks, Colin N.; Sayers, Michael J.; Banach, David M.; Grimm, Amanda G.; Shuchman, Robert A.

    2016-01-01

    Prediction of primary production of lentic water bodies (i.e., lakes and reservoirs) is valuable to researchers and resource managers alike, but is very rarely done at the global scale. With the development of remote sensing technologies, it is now feasible to gather large amounts of data across the world, including understudied and remote regions. To determine which factors were most important in explaining the variation of chlorophyll a (Chl-a), an indicator of primary production in water bodies, at global and regional scales, we first developed a geospatial database of 227 water bodies and watersheds with corresponding Chl-a, nutrient, hydrogeomorphic, and climate data. Then we used a generalized additive modeling approach and developed model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables for all 227 water bodies and for 51 lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes region in the data set. Our best global model contained two hydrogeomorphic variables (water body surface area and the ratio of watershed to water body surface area) and a climate variable (average temperature in the warmest model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables quarter) and explained ~ 30% of variation in Chl-a. Our regional model contained one hydrogeomorphic variable (flow accumulation) and the same climate variable, but explained substantially more variation (58%). Our results indicate that a regional approach to watershed modeling may be more informative to predicting Chl-a, and that nearly a third of global variability in Chl-a may be explained using hydrogeomorphic and climate variables.

  13. Regional-scale relationships between aerosol and summer monsoon circulation, and precipitation over northeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Soon-Chang; Kim, Sang-Woo; Choi, Suk-Jin; Choi, In-Jin

    2010-08-01

    We investigated the regional-scale relationships between columnar aerosol loads and summer monsoon circulation, and also the precipitation over northeast Asia using aerosol optical depth (AOD) data obtained from the 8-year MODIS, AERONET Sun/sky radiometer, and precipitation data acquired under the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). These high-quality data revealed the regional-scale link between AOD and summer monsoon circulation, precipitation in July over northeast Asian countries, and their distinct spatial and annual variabilities. Compared to the mean AOD for the entire period of 2001-2008, the increase of almost 40-50% in the AOD value in July 2005 and July 2007 was found over the downwind regions of China (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea), with negative precipitation anomalies. This can be attributable to the strong westerly confluent flows, between cyclone flows by continental thermal low centered over the northern China and anticyclonic flows by the western North Pacific High, which transport anthropogenic pollution aerosols emitted from east China to aforementioned downwind high AOD regions along the rim of the Pacific marine airmass. In July 2002, however, the easterly flows transported anthropogenic aerosols from east China to the southwestern part of China in July 2002. As a result, the AOD off the coast of China was dramatically reduced in spite of decreasing rainfall. From the calculation of the cross-correlation coefficient between MODIS-derived AOD anomalies and GPCP precipitation anomalies in July over the period 2001-2008, we found negative correlations over the areas encompassed by 105-115°E and 30-35°N and by 120-140°E and 35-40°N (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea). This suggests that aerosol loads over these regions are easily influenced by the Asian monsoon flow system and associated precipitation.

  14. Integrated management of water resources demand and supply in irrigated agriculture from plot to regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Schütze

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Growing water scarcity in agriculture is an increasing problem in future in many regions of the world. Recent trends of weather extremes in Saxony, Germany also enhance drought risks for agricultural production. In addition, signals of longer and more intense drought conditions during the vegetation period can be found in future regional climate scenarios for Saxony. However, those climate predictions are associated with high uncertainty and therefore, e.g. stochastic methods are required to analyze the impact of changing climate patterns on future crop water requirements and water availability. For assessing irrigation as a measure to increase agricultural water security a generalized stochastic approach for a spatial distributed estimation of future irrigation water demand is proposed, which ensures safe yields and a high water productivity at the same time. The developed concept of stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPF can serve as a central decision support tool for both, (i a cost benefit analysis of farm irrigation modernization on a local scale and (ii a regional water demand management using a multi-scale approach for modeling and implementation. The new approach is applied using the example of a case study in Saxony, which is dealing with the sustainable management of future irrigation water demands and its implementation.

  15. Adaptive Control of a Utility-Scale Wind Turbine Operating in Region 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frost, Susan A.; Balas, Mark J.; Wright, Alan D.

    2009-01-01

    Adaptive control techniques are well suited to nonlinear applications, such as wind turbines, which are difficult to accurately model and which have effects from poorly known operating environments. The turbulent and unpredictable conditions in which wind turbines operate create many challenges for their operation. In this paper, we design an adaptive collective pitch controller for a high-fidelity simulation of a utility scale, variable-speed horizontal axis wind turbine. The objective of the adaptive pitch controller in Region 3 is to regulate generator speed and reject step disturbances. The control objective is accomplished by collectively pitching the turbine blades. We use an extension of the Direct Model Reference Adaptive Control (DMRAC) approach to track a reference point and to reject persistent disturbances. The turbine simulation models the Controls Advanced Research Turbine (CART) of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado. The CART is a utility-scale wind turbine which has a well-developed and extensively verified simulator. The adaptive collective pitch controller for Region 3 was compared in simulations with a bas celliansesical Proportional Integrator (PI) collective pitch controller. In the simulations, the adaptive pitch controller showed improved speed regulation in Region 3 when compared with the baseline PI pitch controller and it demonstrated robustness to modeling errors.

  16. Experimental evidence of widespread regions of small-scale plasma irregularities in the magnetosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmgren, G.; Kintner, P.M.

    1990-01-01

    Small-scale (≤ 1 km) plasma irregularities have previously been observed in situ from the E region to an altitude of 8,000 km. In this paper the authors report results from the Viking plasma wave experiments which extends the measurements of high-latitude irregularities in two ways: (1) they have acquired electron density fluctuation measurements up to an altitude of 13,500 km and (2) for the first time a measurement technique was used that made a phase velocity deduction possible from in situ measurements. The spacecraft was equipped with two spatially separated Langmuir probes, each with an ability to measure relative probe current fluctuations with frequencies from dc to about 400 Hz. Under certain assumptions the current fluctuations could be interpreted as relative plasma density fluctuations, δn e /n e . Data from this interferometric instrument has been used to infer the distribution and nature of plasma irregularities along Viking orbits. It is demonstrated that the interferometric technique offers great advantages compared to single point measurements in this kind of study. It is shown that the observed small-scale plasma irregularities are nondispersive and convecting with the background plasma. They exhibit a power law frequency spectrum as observed in the satellite reference frame. The spectral index varies with location. An attempt to map source regions by identifying regions of high power and shallow spectrums is made

  17. Long distance dispersal and connectivity in amphi-Atlantic corals at regional and basin scales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia L D Nunes

    Full Text Available Among Atlantic scleractinian corals, species diversity is highest in the Caribbean, but low diversity and high endemism are observed in various peripheral populations in central and eastern Atlantic islands and along the coasts of Brazil and West Africa. The degree of connectivity between these distantly separated populations is of interest because it provides insight into processes at both evolutionary and ecological time scales, such as speciation, recruitment dynamics and the persistence of coral populations. To assess connectivity in broadly distributed coral species of the Atlantic, DNA sequence data from two nuclear markers were obtained for six coral species spanning their distributional ranges. At basin-wide scales, significant differentiation was generally observed among populations in the Caribbean, Brazil and West Africa. Concordance of patterns in connectivity among co-distributed taxa indicates that extrinsic barriers, such as the Amazon freshwater plume or long stretches of open ocean, restrict dispersal of coral larvae from region to region. Within regions, dispersal ability appears to be influenced by aspects of reproduction and life history. Two broadcasting species, Siderastrea siderea and Montastraea cavernosa, were able to maintain gene flow among populations separated by as much as 1,200 km along the coast of Brazil. In contrast, brooding species, such as Favia gravida and Siderastrea radians, had more restricted gene flow along the Brazilian coast.

  18. Correspondence of biological condition models of California streams at statewide and regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Jason T.; Brown, Larry R.; Rehn, Andrew C.; Waite, Ian R.; Ode, Peter R; Mazor, Raphael D; Schiff, Kenneth C

    2015-01-01

    We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model stream biological condition as measured by benthic macroinvertebrate taxonomic completeness, the ratio of observed to expected (O/E) taxa. Models were developed with and without exclusion of rare taxa at a site. BRT models are robust, requiring few assumptions compared with traditional modeling techniques such as multiple linear regression. The BRT models were constructed to provide baseline support to stressor delineation by identifying natural physiographic and human land use gradients affecting stream biological condition statewide and for eight ecological regions within the state, as part of the development of numerical biological objectives for California’s wadeable streams. Regions were defined on the basis of ecological, hydrologic, and jurisdictional factors and roughly corresponded with ecoregions. Physiographic and land use variables were derived from geographic information system coverages. The model for the entire state (n = 1,386) identified a composite measure of anthropogenic disturbance (the sum of urban, agricultural, and unmanaged roadside vegetation land cover) within the local watershed as the most important variable, explaining 56 % of the variance in O/E values. Models for individual regions explained between 51 and 84 % of the variance in O/E values. Measures of human disturbance were important in the three coastal regions. In the South Coast and Coastal Chaparral, local watershed measures of urbanization were the most important variables related to biological condition, while in the North Coast the composite measure of human disturbance at the watershed scale was most important. In the two mountain regions, natural gradients were most important, including slope, precipitation, and temperature. The remaining three regions had relatively small sample sizes (n ≤ 75 sites) and had models that gave mixed results. Understanding the spatial scale at which land use and land cover affect

  19. Appraising options to reduce shallow groundwater tables and enhance flow conditions over regional scales in an irrigated alluvial aquifer system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morway, Eric D.; Gates, Timothy K.; Niswonger, Richard G.

    2013-01-01

    Some of the world’s key agricultural production systems face big challenges to both water quantity and quality due to shallow groundwater that results from long-term intensive irrigation, namely waterlogging and salinity, water losses, and environmental problems. This paper focuses on water quantity issues, presenting finite-difference groundwater models developed to describe shallow water table levels, non-beneficial groundwater consumptive use, and return flows to streams across two regions within an irrigated alluvial river valley in southeastern Colorado, USA. The models are calibrated and applied to simulate current baseline conditions in the alluvial aquifer system and to examine actions for potentially improving these conditions. The models provide a detailed description of regional-scale subsurface unsaturated and saturated flow processes, thereby enabling detailed spatiotemporal description of groundwater levels, recharge to infiltration ratios, partitioning of ET originating from the unsaturated and saturated zones, and groundwater flows, among other variables. Hybrid automated and manual calibration of the models is achieved using extensive observations of groundwater hydraulic head, groundwater return flow to streams, aquifer stratigraphy, canal seepage, total evapotranspiration, the portion of evapotranspiration supplied by upflux from the shallow water table, and irrigation flows. Baseline results from the two regional-scale models are compared to model predictions under variations of four alternative management schemes: (1) reduced seepage from earthen canals, (2) reduced irrigation applications, (3) rotational lease fallowing (irrigation water leased to municipalities, resulting in temporary dry-up of fields), and (4) combinations of these. The potential for increasing the average water table depth by up to 1.1 and 0.7 m in the two respective modeled regions, thereby reducing the threat of waterlogging and lowering non-beneficial consumptive use

  20. Scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the French Mediterranean region: What explains the hook shape?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drobinski, P.; Alonzo, B.; Bastin, S.; Silva, N. Da; Muller, C.

    2016-04-01

    Expected changes to future extreme precipitation remain a key uncertainty associated with anthropogenic climate change. Extreme precipitation has been proposed to scale with the precipitable water content in the atmosphere. Assuming constant relative humidity, this implies an increase of precipitation extremes at a rate of about 7% °C-1 globally as indicated by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Increases faster and slower than Clausius-Clapeyron have also been reported. In this work, we examine the scaling between precipitation extremes and temperature in the present climate using simulations and measurements from surface weather stations collected in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs in Southern France. Of particular interest are departures from the Clausius-Clapeyron thermodynamic expectation, their spatial and temporal distribution, and their origin. Looking at the scaling of precipitation extreme with temperature, two regimes emerge which form a hook shape: one at low temperatures (cooler than around 15°C) with rates of increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron rate and one at high temperatures (warmer than about 15°C) with sub-Clausius-Clapeyron rates and most often negative rates. On average, the region of focus does not seem to exhibit super Clausius-Clapeyron behavior except at some stations, in contrast to earlier studies. Many factors can contribute to departure from Clausius-Clapeyron scaling: time and spatial averaging, choice of scaling temperature (surface versus condensation level), and precipitation efficiency and vertical velocity in updrafts that are not necessarily constant with temperature. But most importantly, the dynamical contribution of orography to precipitation in the fall over this area during the so-called "Cevenoles" events, explains the hook shape of the scaling of precipitation extremes.

  1. Large-scale data analysis of power grid resilience across multiple US service regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Chuanyi; Wei, Yun; Mei, Henry; Calzada, Jorge; Carey, Matthew; Church, Steve; Hayes, Timothy; Nugent, Brian; Stella, Gregory; Wallace, Matthew; White, Joe; Wilcox, Robert

    2016-05-01

    Severe weather events frequently result in large-scale power failures, affecting millions of people for extended durations. However, the lack of comprehensive, detailed failure and recovery data has impeded large-scale resilience studies. Here, we analyse data from four major service regions representing Upstate New York during Super Storm Sandy and daily operations. Using non-stationary spatiotemporal random processes that relate infrastructural failures to recoveries and cost, our data analysis shows that local power failures have a disproportionally large non-local impact on people (that is, the top 20% of failures interrupted 84% of services to customers). A large number (89%) of small failures, represented by the bottom 34% of customers and commonplace devices, resulted in 56% of the total cost of 28 million customer interruption hours. Our study shows that extreme weather does not cause, but rather exacerbates, existing vulnerabilities, which are obscured in daily operations.

  2. Regional scale groundwater resource assessment in the Australian outback - Geophysics is the only way.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munday, T. J.; Davis, A. C.; Gilfedder, M.; Annetts, D.

    2015-12-01

    Resource development, whether in agriculture, mining and/or energy, is set to have significant consequences for the groundwater resources of Australia in the short to medium term. These industry sectors are of significant economic value to the country and consequently their support remains a priority for State and Federal Governments alike. The scale of potential developments facilitated in large part by the Government Programs, like the West Australian (WA) Government's "Water for Food" program, and the South Australian's Government's PACE program, will result in an increase in infrastructure requirements, including access to water resources and Aboriginal lands to support these developments. However, the increased demand for water, particularly groundwater, is likely to be compromised by the limited information we have about these resources. This is particularly so for remote parts of the country which are targeted as primary development areas. There is a recognised need to expand this knowledge so that water availability is not a limiting factor to development. Governments of all persuasions have therefore adopted geophysical technologies, particularly airborne electromagnetics (AEM), as a basis for extending the hydrogeological knowledge of data poor areas. In WA, the State Government has employed regional-scale AEM surveys as a basis for defining groundwater resources to support mining, regional agricultural developments whilst aiming to safeguard regional population centres, and environmental assets. A similar approach is being employed in South Australia. These surveys are being used to underpin conceptual hydrogeological frameworks, define basin-scale hydrogeological models, delimit the extent of saltwater intrusion in coastal areas, and to determine the groundwater resource potential of remote alluvial systems aimed at supporting new, irrigation-based, agricultural developments in arid parts of the Australian outback. In the absence of conventional

  3. An approach for classification of hydrogeological systems at the regional scale based on groundwater hydrographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haaf, Ezra; Barthel, Roland

    2016-04-01

    When assessing hydrogeological conditions at the regional scale, the analyst is often confronted with uncertainty of structures, inputs and processes while having to base inference on scarce and patchy data. Haaf and Barthel (2015) proposed a concept for handling this predicament by developing a groundwater systems classification framework, where information is transferred from similar, but well-explored and better understood to poorly described systems. The concept is based on the central hypothesis that similar systems react similarly to the same inputs and vice versa. It is conceptually related to PUB (Prediction in ungauged basins) where organization of systems and processes by quantitative methods is intended and used to improve understanding and prediction. Furthermore, using the framework it is expected that regional conceptual and numerical models can be checked or enriched by ensemble generated data from neighborhood-based estimators. In a first step, groundwater hydrographs from a large dataset in Southern Germany are compared in an effort to identify structural similarity in groundwater dynamics. A number of approaches to group hydrographs, mostly based on a similarity measure - which have previously only been used in local-scale studies, can be found in the literature. These are tested alongside different global feature extraction techniques. The resulting classifications are then compared to a visual "expert assessment"-based classification which serves as a reference. A ranking of the classification methods is carried out and differences shown. Selected groups from the classifications are related to geological descriptors. Here we present the most promising results from a comparison of classifications based on series correlation, different series distances and series features, such as the coefficients of the discrete Fourier transform and the intrinsic mode functions of empirical mode decomposition. Additionally, we show examples of classes

  4. A New WRF-Chem Treatment for Studying Regional Scale Impacts of Cloud-Aerosol Interactions in Parameterized Cumuli

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berg, Larry K.; Shrivastava, ManishKumar B.; Easter, Richard C.; Fast, Jerome D.; Chapman, Elaine G.; Liu, Ying

    2015-01-01

    A new treatment of cloud-aerosol interactions within parameterized shallow and deep convection has been implemented in WRF-Chem that can be used to better understand the aerosol lifecycle over regional to synoptic scales. The modifications to the model to represent cloud-aerosol interactions include treatment of the cloud dropletnumber mixing ratio; key cloud microphysical and macrophysical parameters (including the updraft fractional area, updraft and downdraft mass fluxes, and entrainment) averaged over the population of shallow clouds, or a single deep convective cloud; and vertical transport, activation/resuspension, aqueous chemistry, and wet removal of aerosol and trace gases in warm clouds. Thesechanges have been implemented in both the WRF-Chem chemistry packages as well as the Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization that has been modified to better represent shallow convective clouds. Preliminary testing of the modified WRF-Chem has been completed using observations from the Cumulus Humilis Aerosol Processing Study (CHAPS) as well as a high-resolution simulation that does not include parameterized convection. The simulation results are used to investigate the impact of cloud-aerosol interactions on the regional scale transport of black carbon (BC), organic aerosol (OA), and sulfate aerosol. Based on the simulations presented here, changes in the column integrated BC can be as large as -50% when cloud-aerosol interactions are considered (due largely to wet removal), or as large as +35% for sulfate in non-precipitating conditions due to the sulfate production in the parameterized clouds. The modifications to WRF-Chem version 3.2.1 are found to account for changes in the cloud drop number concentration (CDNC) and changes in the chemical composition of cloud-drop residuals in a way that is consistent with observations collected during CHAPS. Efforts are currently underway to port the changes described here to WRF-Chem version 3.5, and it is anticipated that they

  5. Modelling Groundwater Depletion at Regional and Global Scales: Present State and Future Prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide

    2015-01-01

    Except for frozen water in ice and glaciers, groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this paper, the most recent advances quantifying groundwater depletion (GWD) are comprehensively reviewed. This paper critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches estimating GWD at regional and global scales, and the evidence of feedbacks to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with GWD. Finally, critical challenges and opportunities in the use of groundwater are identified for the adaption to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

  6. Water Resources Implications of Cellulosic Biofuel Production at a Regional Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher, S. F.; Schoenholtz, S. H.; Nettles, J. E.

    2011-12-01

    Recent increases in oil prices, a strong national interest in greater energy independence, and a concern for the role of fossil fuels in global climate change, have led to a dramatic expansion in use of alternative renewable energy sources in the U.S. The U.S. government has mandated production of 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2022, of which 16 billion gallons are required to be cellulosic biofuels. Production of cellulosic biomass offers a promising alternative to corn-based systems because large-scale production of corn-based ethanol often requires irrigation and is associated with increased erosion, excess sediment export, and enhanced leaching of nitrogen and phosphorus. Although cultivation of switchgrass using standard agricultural practices is one option being considered for production of cellulosic biomass, intercropping cellulosic biofuel crops within managed forests could provide feedstock without primary land use change or the water quality impacts associated with annual crops. Catchlight Energy LLC is examining the feasibility and sustainability of intercropping switchgrass in loblolly pine plantations in the southeastern U.S. Ongoing research is determining efficient operational techniques and information needed to evaluate effects of these practices on water resources in small watershed-scale (~25 ha) studies. Three sets of four to five sub-watersheds are fully instrumented and currently collecting calibration data in North Carolina, Alabama, and Mississippi. These watershed studies will provide detailed information to understand processes and guide management decisions. However, environmental implications of cellulosic systems need to be examined at a regional scale. We used the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physically-based hydrologic model, to examine water quantity effects of various land use change scenarios ranging from switchgrass intercropping a small percentage of managed pine forest land to conversion of all managed

  7. A Procedure to Map Subsidence at the Regional Scale Using the Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ascanio Rosi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a procedure to map subsidence at the regional scale by means of persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI. Subsidence analysis is usually restricted to plain areas and where the presence of this phenomenon is already known. The proposed procedure allows a fast identification of subsidences in large and hilly-mountainous areas. The test area is the Tuscany region, in Central Italy, where several areas are affected by natural and anthropogenic subsidence and where PSI data acquired by the Envisat satellite are available both in ascending and descending orbit. The procedure consists of the definition of the vertical and horizontal components of the deformation measured by satellite at first, then of the calculation of the “real” displacement direction, so that mainly vertical deformations can be individuated and mapped.

  8. Regional-Scale High-Latitude Extreme Geoelectric Fields Pertaining to Geomagnetically Induced Currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, Antti; Bernabeu, Emanuel; Eichner, Jan; Viljanen, Ari; Ngwira, Chigomezyo

    2015-01-01

    Motivated by the needs of the high-voltage power transmission industry, we use data from the high-latitude IMAGE magnetometer array to study characteristics of extreme geoelectric fields at regional scales. We use 10-s resolution data for years 1993-2013, and the fields are characterized using average horizontal geoelectric field amplitudes taken over station groups that span about 500-km distance. We show that geoelectric field structures associated with localized extremes at single stations can be greatly different from structures associated with regionally uniform geoelectric fields, which are well represented by spatial averages over single stations. Visual extrapolation and rigorous extreme value analysis of spatially averaged fields indicate that the expected range for 1-in-100-year extreme events are 3-8 V/km and 3.4-7.1 V/km, respectively. The Quebec reference ground model is used in the calculations.

  9. Complexity in the scaling of velocity fluctuations in the high-latitude F-region ionosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. Parkinson

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The temporal scaling properties of F-region velocity fluctuations, δvlos, were characterised over 17 octaves of temporal scale from τ=1 s to <1 day using a new data base of 1-s time resolution SuperDARN radar measurements. After quality control, 2.9 (1.9 million fluctuations were recorded during 31.5 (40.4 days of discretionary mode soundings using the Tasmanian (New Zealand radars. If the fluctuations were statistically self-similar, the probability density functions (PDFs of δvlos would collapse onto the same PDF using the scaling Psvs, τ=ταPvlos, τ and δvsvlosτ−α where α is the scaling exponent. The variations in scaling exponents α and multi-fractal behaviour were estimated using peak scaling and generalised structure function (GSF analyses, and a new method based upon minimising the differences between re-scaled probability density functions (PDFs. The efficiency of this method enabled calculation of "α spectra", the temporal spectra of scaling exponents from τ=1 s to ~2048 s. The large number of samples enabled calculation of α spectra for data separated into 2-h bins of MLT as well as two main physical regimes: Population A echoes with Doppler spectral width <75 m s−1 concentrated on closed field lines, and Population B echoes with spectral width >150 m s−1 concentrated on open field lines. For all data there was a scaling break at τ~10 s and the similarity of the fluctuations beneath this scale may be related to the large spatial averaging (~100 km×45 km employed by SuperDARN radars. For Tasmania Population B, the velocity fluctuations exhibited approximately mono fractal power law scaling between τ~8 s and 2048 s (34 min, and probably up to several hours. The scaling exponents were generally less than that expected for basic MHD

  10. Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2018-03-01

    Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

  11. Regional scale variations of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 from satellite observation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ru, F; Lei, L; Guan, X; Bu, R; Qi, J

    2014-01-01

    To identify the sources, sinks and changes of atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4 , this study investigates the spatio-temporal changes of atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4 concentration on the regional scale by the satellite observations. In this paper, choosing the land region of China as the study area, we investigate the spatio-temporal changes of atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4 concentrations using the data of the CO 2 dry air mixing ratio (XCO 2 ), and the CH 4 dry air mixing ratio (XCH 4 ), retrieved by the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) from Jan. 2010 to Dec. 2012. The results show that (1) both XCO 2 and XCH 4 show higher concentrations in southeastern regions than that in the northwestern, and tend to yearly increasing from 2010 to 2013; (2) XCO 2 shows obvious seasonal change with higher values in the spring than that in summer. The seasonal peak-to-peak amplitude is 8 ppm and the annual growth is about 2 ppm. XCH 4 , however, does not show a seasonal change; (3) With regard to different land-use backgrounds, XCO 2 shows larger concentrations over the areas of urban agglomeration than that over the grasslands and deserts, and XCH 4 shows lower concentrations over deserts than that over the Yangtze River Delta region and Sichuan Basin

  12. An AHP-derived method for mapping the physical vulnerability of coastal areas at regional scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Le Cozannet

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Assessing coastal vulnerability to climate change at regional scales is now mandatory in France since the adoption of recent laws to support adaptation to climate change. However, there is presently no commonly recognised method to assess accurately how sea level rise will modify coastal processes in the coming decades. Therefore, many assessments of the physical component of coastal vulnerability are presently based on a combined use of data (e.g. digital elevation models, historical shoreline and coastal geomorphology datasets, simple models and expert opinion. In this study, we assess the applicability and usefulness of a multi-criteria decision-mapping method (the analytical hierarchy process, AHP to map physical coastal vulnerability to erosion and flooding in a structured way. We apply the method in two regions of France: the coastal zones of Languedoc-Roussillon (north-western Mediterranean, France and the island of La Réunion (south-western Indian Ocean, notably using the regional geological maps. As expected, the results show not only the greater vulnerability of sand spits, estuaries and low-lying areas near to coastal lagoons in both regions, but also that of a thin strip of erodible cliffs exposed to waves in La Réunion. Despite gaps in knowledge and data, the method is found to provide a flexible and transportable framework to represent and aggregate existing knowledge and to support long-term coastal zone planning through the integration of such studies into existing adaptation schemes.

  13. The Transition Region Explorer: Observing the Multi-Scale Dynamics of Geospace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, E.

    2015-12-01

    Meso- and global-scale IT remote sensing is accomplished via satellite imagers and ground-based instruments. On the ground, the approach is arrays providing extensive as possible coverage (the "net") and powerful observatories that drill deep to provide detailed information about small-scale processes (the "drill"). Always, there is a trade between cost, spatial resolution, coverage (extent), number of parameters, and more, such that in general the larger the network the sparser the coverage. Where are we now? There are important gaps. With THEMIS-ASI, we see processes that quickly evolve beyond the field of view of one observatory, but involve space/time scales not captured by existing meso- and large-scale arrays. Many forefront questions require observations at heretofore unexplored space and time scales, and comprehensive inter-hemispheric conjugate observations than are presently available. To address this, a new ground-based observing initiative is being developed in Canada. Called TREx, for Transition Region Explorer, this new facility will incorporate dedicated blueline, redline, and Near-Infrared All-Sky Imagers, together with an unprecedented network of ten imaging riometers, with a combined field of view spanning more than three hours of magnetic local time and from equatorward to poleward of typical auroral latitudes (spanning the ionospheric footprint of the "nightside transition region" that separates the highly stretched tail and the inner magnetosphere). The TREx field-of-view is covered by HF radars, and contains a dense network of magnetometers and VLF receivers, as well as other geospace and upper atmospheric remote sensors. Taken together, TREx and these co-located instruments represent a quantum leap forward in terms of imaging, in multiple parameters (precipitation, ionization, convection, and currents), ionospheric dynamics in the above-mentioned scale gap. This represents an exciting new opportunity for studying geospace at the system level

  14. Quebec Back Pain Disability Scale, Low Back Outcome Score and revised Oswestry low back pain disability scale for patients with low back pain due to degenerative disc disease: evaluation of Polish versions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misterska, Ewa; Jankowski, Roman; Glowacki, Maciej

    2011-12-15

    Evaluation and comparison of translated and culturally adapted self-reported measurements. The aim of this prospective study was to cross-culturally adapt the Polish versions of Revised Oswestry Disability Index (RODI-PL), Quebec Back Pain Disability Scale (QDS-PL), and the Low Back Outcome Score (LBOS-PL). The application of instruments in English, which have undergone translation must be subjected to validation studies. Such studies are necessary above all for instruments that have been adapted to establish their value and usefulness in studies of patient populations where English is not the native language. The translation was carried out according to International Quality of Life Association (IQOLA) Project and consisted of the following stages: translation, synthesis of the translations, back translation, expert committee, and testing of the prefinal versions of questionnaires. Eighty-five consecutive patients with low back pain due to spinal disc herniation and degenerative changes completed the QDS-PL, RODI-PL, LBOS-PL, and a Visual Analogue Scale twice within 2-day intervals. Mean duration of LBP was 45.9 months SD 55.5. The evaluation of degenerative changes in the lumbar region was carried out according to the Modic scale. Twenty-nine patients were categorized at type I, 4 patients were registered as type II, and 52 patients were type III. Cronbach α values for the LBOS-PL equaled 0.77, for the RODI-PL 0.85, and 0.95 for the QDS-PL. Item-total correlation confirmed that all scales are internally consistent. Test-retest reliability was excellent for RODI-PL and QDS-PL, but poor for LBOS-PL (0.88, 0.93, and 0.34, respectively). All questionnaires were significantly intercorrelated. We identified the strongest correlation between QDS-PL and RODI-PL (0.823, P < 0.001). The statistically significant correlation was identified between the QDS-PL and Modic Classification (rS = 0.226 P = 0.038). QBPDS-PL and RODI-PL are reliable and valid. Furthermore

  15. Estimating total alkalinity for coastal ocean acidification monitoring at regional to continental scales in Australian coastal waters

    KAUST Repository

    Baldry, Kimberlee; Hardman-Mountford, Nick; Greenwood, Jim

    2017-01-01

    Owing to a lack of resources, tools, and knowledge, the natural variability and distribution of Total Alkalinity (TA) has been poorly characterised in coastal waters globally, yet variability is known to be high in coastal regions due to the complex interactions of oceanographic, biotic, and terrestrially-influenced processes. This is a particularly challenging task for the vast Australian coastline, however, it is also this vastness that demands attention in the face of ocean acidification (OA). Australian coastal waters have high biodiversity and endemism, and are home to large areas of coral reef, including the Great Barrier Reef, the largest coral reef system in the world. Ocean acidification threatens calcifying marine organisms by hindering calcification rates, threatening the structural integrity of coral reefs and other ecosystems. Tracking the progression of OA in different coastal regions requires accurate knowledge of the variability in TA. Thus, estimation methods that can capture this variability at synoptic scales are needed. Multiple linear regression is a promising approach in this regard. Here, we compare a range of both simple and multiple linear regression models to the estimation of coastal TA from a range of variables, including salinity, temperature, chlorophyll-a concentration and nitrate concentration. We find that regionally parameterised models capture local variability better than more general coastal or open ocean parameterised models. The strongest contribution to model improvement came through incorporating temperature as an input variable as well as salinity. Further improvements were achieved through the incorporation of either nitrate or chlorophyll-a, with the combination of temperature, salinity, and nitrate constituting the minimum model in most cases. These results provide an approach that can be applied to satellite Earth observation and autonomous in situ platforms to improve synoptic scale estimation of TA in coastal waters.

  16. Estimating total alkalinity for coastal ocean acidification monitoring at regional to continental scales in Australian coastal waters

    KAUST Repository

    Baldry, Kimberlee

    2017-06-01

    Owing to a lack of resources, tools, and knowledge, the natural variability and distribution of Total Alkalinity (TA) has been poorly characterised in coastal waters globally, yet variability is known to be high in coastal regions due to the complex interactions of oceanographic, biotic, and terrestrially-influenced processes. This is a particularly challenging task for the vast Australian coastline, however, it is also this vastness that demands attention in the face of ocean acidification (OA). Australian coastal waters have high biodiversity and endemism, and are home to large areas of coral reef, including the Great Barrier Reef, the largest coral reef system in the world. Ocean acidification threatens calcifying marine organisms by hindering calcification rates, threatening the structural integrity of coral reefs and other ecosystems. Tracking the progression of OA in different coastal regions requires accurate knowledge of the variability in TA. Thus, estimation methods that can capture this variability at synoptic scales are needed. Multiple linear regression is a promising approach in this regard. Here, we compare a range of both simple and multiple linear regression models to the estimation of coastal TA from a range of variables, including salinity, temperature, chlorophyll-a concentration and nitrate concentration. We find that regionally parameterised models capture local variability better than more general coastal or open ocean parameterised models. The strongest contribution to model improvement came through incorporating temperature as an input variable as well as salinity. Further improvements were achieved through the incorporation of either nitrate or chlorophyll-a, with the combination of temperature, salinity, and nitrate constituting the minimum model in most cases. These results provide an approach that can be applied to satellite Earth observation and autonomous in situ platforms to improve synoptic scale estimation of TA in coastal waters.

  17. A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian M; Ermert, Volker

    2013-02-18

    The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors. A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates. Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration. A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions.

  18. Time domain contact model for tyre/road interaction including nonlinear contact stiffness due to small-scale roughness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, P. B. U.; Kropp, W.

    2008-11-01

    Rolling resistance, traction, wear, excitation of vibrations, and noise generation are all attributes to consider in optimisation of the interaction between automotive tyres and wearing courses of roads. The key to understand and describe the interaction is to include a wide range of length scales in the description of the contact geometry. This means including scales on the order of micrometres that have been neglected in previous tyre/road interaction models. A time domain contact model for the tyre/road interaction that includes interfacial details is presented. The contact geometry is discretised into multiple elements forming pairs of matching points. The dynamic response of the tyre is calculated by convolving the contact forces with pre-calculated Green's functions. The smaller-length scales are included by using constitutive interfacial relations, i.e. by using nonlinear contact springs, for each pair of contact elements. The method is presented for normal (out-of-plane) contact and a method for assessing the stiffness of the nonlinear springs based on detailed geometry and elastic data of the tread is suggested. The governing equations of the nonlinear contact problem are solved with the Newton-Raphson iterative scheme. Relations between force, indentation, and contact stiffness are calculated for a single tread block in contact with a road surface. The calculated results have the same character as results from measurements found in literature. Comparison to traditional contact formulations shows that the effect of the small-scale roughness is large; the contact stiffness is only up to half of the stiffness that would result if contact is made over the whole element directly to the bulk of the tread. It is concluded that the suggested contact formulation is a suitable model to include more details of the contact interface. Further, the presented result for the tread block in contact with the road is a suitable input for a global tyre/road interaction model

  19. Applicability of Earth Observation for Identifying Small-Scale Mining Footprints in a Wet Tropical Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celso M. Isidro

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The unpredictable climate in wet tropical regions along with the spatial resolution limitations of some satellite imageries make detecting and mapping artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM challenging. The objective of this study was to test the utility of Pleiades and SPOT imagery with an object-based support vector machine (OB-SVM classifier for the multi-temporal remote sensing of ASM and other land cover including a large-scale mine in the Didipio catchment in the Philippines. Historical spatial data on location and type of ASM mines were collected from the field and were utilized as training data for the OB-SVM classifier. The classification had an overall accuracy between 87% and 89% for the three different images—Pleiades-1A for the 2013 and 2014 images and SPOT-6 for the 2016 image. The main land use features, particularly the Didipio large-scale mine, were well identified by the OB-SVM classifier, however there were greater commission errors for the mapping of small-scale mines. The lack of consistency in their shape and their small area relative to pixel sizes meant they were often not distinguished from other land clearance types (i.e., open land. To accurately estimate the total area of each land cover class, we calculated bias-adjusted surface areas based on misclassification values. The analysis showed an increase in small-scale mining areas from 91,000 m2—or 0.2% of the total catchment area—in March 2013 to 121,000 m2—or 0.3%—in May 2014, and then a decrease to 39,000 m2—or 0.1%—in January 2016.

  20. Impact of isoprene and nitrogen oxides on O3 chemistry at the local and the regional scale : the ESCOMPTE experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortinovis, J.; Solmon, F.; Personne, E.; Serça, D.; Rosset, R.

    2003-04-01

    Concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO+NO2) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) play a crucial role in the atmospheric chemistry through the production-destruction of tropospheric O3. In rural areas, NOx concentrations are much lower than in urban areas, whereas VOCs emissions can be relatively high. This is due to a relative longer residence time of VOCs, and to the substantial contribution of Biogenic VOCs (BVOCs) representing more than 85% of all the VOCs emitted at the Earth surface (half of it being isoprene). For these reasons, O3 production in rural areas is most of the time NOx-limited. Taking into account biogenic emissions of isoprene in global scale atmospheric chemistry modeling adds from 10 to 40% to the ozone produced when compared to the same simulation without isoprene. This suggests that BVOCs and NOx emissions must be accounted for in models of atmospheric pollution forecasting at local and regional scales. In this study, we present a sensitivity analysis on the impact of the isoprene and nitrogen oxides emissions at the local and the regional scale. This study is done from data collected during the ESCOMPTE campaign which took place in June and July 2001 in the Marseille region (Southwest France) characterized by both strong natural and anthropogenic sources of trace gases. Isoprene emission experimental data from a Quercus Pubescens Mediterranean forest are used to constrain the 1Dz Soil-Vegetation-Atmospheric-Transfer ISBA model. This SVAT is used in the 3D MESO-NH-Chemistry model to simulate scenarios of pollution at the regional scale including the measured biogenic source for isoprene, and GENEMIS anthropogenic sources for other trace gases. To focus on the chemistry aspect of these simulations, the atmospheric dynamics are set to an "ideal" configuration. We have investigated the impact of the relative position and distance between the biogenic and anthropogenic sources on the O3 budget. According to this, and to the intensity of the

  1. Atlas-based analysis of cardiac shape and function: correction of regional shape bias due to imaging protocol for population studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medrano-Gracia, Pau; Cowan, Brett R; Bluemke, David A; Finn, J Paul; Kadish, Alan H; Lee, Daniel C; Lima, Joao A C; Suinesiaputra, Avan; Young, Alistair A

    2013-09-13

    Cardiovascular imaging studies generate a wealth of data which is typically used only for individual study endpoints. By pooling data from multiple sources, quantitative comparisons can be made of regional wall motion abnormalities between different cohorts, enabling reuse of valuable data. Atlas-based analysis provides precise quantification of shape and motion differences between disease groups and normal subjects. However, subtle shape differences may arise due to differences in imaging protocol between studies. A mathematical model describing regional wall motion and shape was used to establish a coordinate system registered to the cardiac anatomy. The atlas was applied to data contributed to the Cardiac Atlas Project from two independent studies which used different imaging protocols: steady state free precession (SSFP) and gradient recalled echo (GRE) cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR). Shape bias due to imaging protocol was corrected using an atlas-based transformation which was generated from a set of 46 volunteers who were imaged with both protocols. Shape bias between GRE and SSFP was regionally variable, and was effectively removed using the atlas-based transformation. Global mass and volume bias was also corrected by this method. Regional shape differences between cohorts were more statistically significant after removing regional artifacts due to imaging protocol bias. Bias arising from imaging protocol can be both global and regional in nature, and is effectively corrected using an atlas-based transformation, enabling direct comparison of regional wall motion abnormalities between cohorts acquired in separate studies.

  2. Elucidating Carbon Exchange at the Regional Scale Via Airborne Eddy Covariance Flux Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannun, R. A.; Wolfe, G. M.; Kawa, S. R.; Newman, P. A.; Hanisco, T. F.; Diskin, G. S.; DiGangi, J. P.; Nowak, J. B.; Barrick, J. D. W.; Thornhill, K. L., II; Noormets, A.; Vargas, R.; Clark, K. L.; Kustas, W. P.

    2017-12-01

    Direct flux observations from aircraft provide a unique tool for probing greenhouse gas (GHG) sources and sinks on a regional scale. Airborne eddy covariance, which relies on high-frequency, simultaneous measurements of fluctuations in concentration and vertical wind speed, is a robust method for quantifying surface-atmosphere exchange. We have assembled and flown an instrument payload onboard the NASA C-23 Sherpa aircraft capable of measuring CO2, CH4, H2O, and heat fluxes. Flights for the Carbon Airborne Flux Experiment (CARAFE) took place during September 2016 and May 2017 based out of Wallops Flight Facility, VA. Flight tracks covered a variety of ecosystems and land-use types in the Mid-Atlantic, including forests, croplands, and wetlands. Carbon fluxes are derived using eddy covariance and wavelet analysis. Our results show a strong drawdown of CO2 and near-zero CH4 emissions from crops and dry-land forest, but seasonally strong CH4 flux from wetland forest. CARAFE flux data will also be compared with observations from several flux towers along the flight path to complement the airborne measurements. We will further assess the effects of land surface type and seasonal variability in carbon exchange. Regional-scale flux observations from CARAFE supply a useful constraint for improving top-down and bottom up estimates of carbon sources and sinks.

  3. Simulating flow in karst aquifers at laboratory and sub-regional scales using MODFLOW-CFP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallegos, Josue Jacob; Hu, Bill X.; Davis, Hal

    2013-12-01

    Groundwater flow in a well-developed karst aquifer dominantly occurs through bedding planes, fractures, conduits, and caves created by and/or enlarged by dissolution. Conventional groundwater modeling methods assume that groundwater flow is described by Darcian principles where primary porosity (i.e. matrix porosity) and laminar flow are dominant. However, in well-developed karst aquifers, the assumption of Darcian flow can be questionable. While Darcian flow generally occurs in the matrix portion of the karst aquifer, flow through conduits can be non-laminar where the relation between specific discharge and hydraulic gradient is non-linear. MODFLOW-CFP is a relatively new modeling program that accounts for non-laminar and laminar flow in pipes, like karst caves, within an aquifer. In this study, results from MODFLOW-CFP are compared to those from MODFLOW-2000/2005, a numerical code based on Darcy's law, to evaluate the accuracy that CFP can achieve when modeling flows in karst aquifers at laboratory and sub-regional (Woodville Karst Plain, Florida, USA) scales. In comparison with laboratory experiments, simulation results by MODFLOW-CFP are more accurate than MODFLOW 2005. At the sub-regional scale, MODFLOW-CFP was more accurate than MODFLOW-2000 for simulating field measurements of peak flow at one spring and total discharges at two springs for an observed storm event.

  4. Topoclimatic modeling for minimum temperature prediction at a regional scale in the Central Valley of Chile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santibáñez, F.; Morales, L.; Fuente, J. de la; Cellier, P.; Huete, A.

    1997-01-01

    Spring frost may strongly affect fruit production in the Central Valley of Chile. Minimum temperatures are spatially variable owing to topography and soil conditions. A methodology for forecasting minimum temperature at a regional scale in the Central Valley of Chile, integrating spatial variability of temperature under radiative frost conditions, has been developed. It uses simultaneously a model for forecasting minimum temperatures at a reference station using air temperature and humidity measured at 6 pm, and topoclimatic models, based on satellite infra-red imagery (NOAA/AVHRR) and a digital elevation model, to extend the prediction at a regional scale. The methodological developments were integrated in a geographic information system for geo referencing of a meteorological station with satellite imagery and modeled output. This approach proved to be a useful tool for short range (12 h) minimum temperature prediction by generating thermal images over the Central Valley of Chile. It may also be used as a tool for frost risk assessment, in order to adapt production to local climatological conditions. (author)

  5. Regional-scale calculation of the LS factor using parallel processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kai; Tang, Guoan; Jiang, Ling; Zhu, A.-Xing; Yang, Jianyi; Song, Xiaodong

    2015-05-01

    With the increase of data resolution and the increasing application of USLE over large areas, the existing serial implementation of algorithms for computing the LS factor is becoming a bottleneck. In this paper, a parallel processing model based on message passing interface (MPI) is presented for the calculation of the LS factor, so that massive datasets at a regional scale can be processed efficiently. The parallel model contains algorithms for calculating flow direction, flow accumulation, drainage network, slope, slope length and the LS factor. According to the existence of data dependence, the algorithms are divided into local algorithms and global algorithms. Parallel strategy are designed according to the algorithm characters including the decomposition method for maintaining the integrity of the results, optimized workflow for reducing the time taken for exporting the unnecessary intermediate data and a buffer-communication-computation strategy for improving the communication efficiency. Experiments on a multi-node system show that the proposed parallel model allows efficient calculation of the LS factor at a regional scale with a massive dataset.

  6. Pesticide fate at regional scale: Development of an integrated model approach and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbst, M.; Hardelauf, H.; Harms, R.; Vanderborght, J.; Vereecken, H.

    As a result of agricultural practice many soils and aquifers are contaminated with pesticides. In order to quantify the side-effects of these anthropogenic impacts on groundwater quality at regional scale, a process-based, integrated model approach was developed. The Richards’ equation based numerical model TRACE calculates the three-dimensional saturated/unsaturated water flow. For the modeling of regional scale pesticide transport we linked TRACE with the plant module SUCROS and with 3DLEWASTE, a hybrid Lagrangian/Eulerian approach to solve the convection/dispersion equation. We used measurements, standard methods like pedotransfer-functions or parameters from literature to derive the model input for the process model. A first-step application of TRACE/3DLEWASTE to the 20 km 2 test area ‘Zwischenscholle’ for the period 1983-1993 reveals the behaviour of the pesticide isoproturon. The selected test area is characterised by an intense agricultural use and shallow groundwater, resulting in a high vulnerability of the groundwater to pesticide contamination. The model results stress the importance of the unsaturated zone for the occurrence of pesticides in groundwater. Remarkable isoproturon concentrations in groundwater are predicted for locations with thin layered and permeable soils. For four selected locations we used measured piezometric heads to validate predicted groundwater levels. In general, the model results are consistent and reasonable. Thus the developed integrated model approach is seen as a promising tool for the quantification of the agricultural practice impact on groundwater quality.

  7. A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Perrette

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011. Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6 with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%. Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

  8. Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2015-04-01

    The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

  9. A study of regional-scale aerosol assimilation using a Stretch-NICAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misawa, S.; Dai, T.; Schutgens, N.; Nakajima, T.

    2013-12-01

    Although aerosol is considered to be harmful to human health and it became a social issue, aerosol models and emission inventories include large uncertainties. In recent studies, data assimilation is applied to aerosol simulation to get more accurate aerosol field and emission inventory. Most of these studies, however, are carried out only on global scale, and there are only a few researches about regional scale aerosol assimilation. In this study, we have created and verified an aerosol assimilation system on regional scale, in hopes to reduce an error associated with the aerosol emission inventory. Our aerosol assimilation system has been developed using an atmospheric climate model, NICAM (Non-hydrostaric ICosahedral Atmospheric Model; Satoh et al., 2008) with a stretch grid system and coupled with an aerosol transport model, SPRINTARS (Takemura et al., 2000). Also, this assimilation system is based on local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). To validate this system, we used a simulated observational data by adding some artificial errors to the surface aerosol fields constructed by Stretch-NICAM-SPRINTARS. We also included a small perturbation in original emission inventory. This assimilation with modified observational data and emission inventory was performed in Kanto-plane region around Tokyo, Japan, and the result indicates the system reducing a relative error of aerosol concentration by 20%. Furthermore, we examined a sensitivity of the aerosol assimilation system by varying the number of total ensemble (5, 10 and 15 ensembles) and local patch (domain) size (radius of 50km, 100km and 200km), both of which are the tuning parameters in LETKF. The result of the assimilation with different ensemble number 5, 10 and 15 shows that the larger the number of ensemble is, the smaller the relative error become. This is consistent with ensemble Kalman filter theory and imply that this assimilation system works properly. Also we found that assimilation system

  10. Monsoon rainfall behaviour in recent times on local/regional scale in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Surender; Rao, V.U.M.; Singh, Diwan

    2002-08-01

    An attempt has been made here to investigate the local/regional monsoon rainfall behaviour in the meteorological sub-division no. 13 comprising the areas of Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh in India. The monthly monsoon rainfall data of 30 years (1970-99) of different locations in the region were used for the investigation. All locations except Delhi received more rainfall in monsoon season during the decade (1990-99) showing general increasing trend in the rainfall behaviour in recent times. The mean monsoon rainfall at various locations ranged between 324.8 mm at Sirsa and 974.9 mm at Chandigarh. The major amount of monsoon rainfall occurred during the month of July and August in the entire region. Monthly mean rainfall ranged between 37.5 to 144.9 mm (June), 130.6 to 298.2 mm (July), 92.6 to 313.6 mm (August) and 44.0 to 149.4mm (September) at different locations. All the locations in the region exhibited overall increasing trend in monsoon rainfall over the period under study. All locations in the region received their lowest monsoon rainfall in the year 1987 which was a drought year and the season's rainfall ranged between 56.1 mm (Sirsa) and 290.0 mm (Delhi) during this year. Many of the locations observed clusters of fluctuations in their respective monsoon rainfall. The statistical summaries of historical data series (1970-99) gave rainfall information on various time scale. Such information acquires value through its influence on the decision making of the ultimate users. (author)

  11. Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: Numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergamasco, A.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.; Budgell, W.P.

    2005-01-01

    Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays-a non-glacial period-appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution 01 working group I, n and In to the Third Assessment Report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense water formation sites ad as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus, 13 (1961) 224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean Jeep convection and open-sea ire formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and

  12. Regional Scale High Resolution δ18O Prediction in Precipitation Using MODIS EVI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Cho-Ying; Wang, Chung-Ho; Lin, Shou-De; Lo, Yi-Chen; Huang, Bo-Wen; Hatch, Kent A.; Shiu, Hau-Jie; You, Cheng-Feng; Chang, Yuan-Mou; Shen, Sheng-Feng

    2012-01-01

    The natural variation in stable water isotope ratio data, also known as water isoscape, is a spatiotemporal fingerprint and a powerful natural tracer that has been widely applied in disciplines as diverse as hydrology, paleoclimatology, ecology and forensic investigation. Although much effort has been devoted to developing a predictive water isoscape model, it remains a central challenge for scientists to generate high accuracy, fine scale spatiotemporal water isoscape prediction. Here we develop a novel approach of using the MODIS-EVI (the Moderate Resolution Imagining Spectroradiometer-Enhanced Vegetation Index), to predict δ18O in precipitation at the regional scale. Using a structural equation model, we show that the EVI and precipitated δ18O are highly correlated and thus the EVI is a good predictor of precipitated δ18O. We then test the predictability of our EVI-δ18O model and demonstrate that our approach can provide high accuracy with fine spatial (250×250 m) and temporal (16 days) scale δ18O predictions (annual and monthly predictabilities [r] are 0.96 and 0.80, respectively). We conclude the merging of the EVI and δ18O in precipitation can greatly extend the spatial and temporal data availability and thus enhance the applicability for both the EVI and water isoscape. PMID:23029053

  13. Grassland/atmosphere response to changing climate: Coupling regional and local scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coughenour, M.B.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Pielke, R.A.; Eastman, J.

    1993-10-01

    The objectives of the study were: to evaluate the response of grassland ecosystems to atmospheric change at regional and site scales, and to develop multiscaled modeling systems to relate ecological and atmospheric models with different spatial and temporal resolutions. A menu-driven shell was developed to facilitate use of models at different temporal scales and to facilitate exchange information between models at different temporal scales. A detailed ecosystem model predicted that C 3 temperate grasslands wig respond more strongly to elevated CO 2 than temperate C 4 grasslands in the short-term while a large positive N-PP response was predicted for a C 4 Kenyan grassland. Long-term climate change scenarios produced either decreases or increases in Colorado plant productivity (NPP) depending on rainfall, but uniform increases in N-PP were predicted in Kenya. Elevated CO 2 is likely to have little effect on ecosystem carbon storage in Colorado while it will increase carbon storage in Kenya. A synoptic climate classification processor (SCP) was developed to evaluate results of GCM climate sensitivity experiments. Roughly 80% agreement was achieved with manual classifications. Comparison of lx and 2xCO 2 GCM Simulations revealed relatively small differences

  14. Improving Shade Modelling in a Regional River Temperature Model Using Fine-Scale LIDAR Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, D. M.; Loicq, P.; Moatar, F.; Beaufort, A.; Melin, E.; Jullian, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Air temperature is often considered as a proxy of the stream temperature to model the distribution areas of aquatic species water temperature is not available at a regional scale. To simulate the water temperature at a regional scale (105 km²), a physically-based model using the equilibrium temperature concept and including upstream-downstream propagation of the thermal signal was developed and applied to the entire Loire basin (Beaufort et al., submitted). This model, called T-NET (Temperature-NETwork) is based on a hydrographical network topology. Computations are made hourly on 52,000 reaches which average 1.7 km long in the Loire drainage basin. The model gives a median Root Mean Square Error of 1.8°C at hourly time step on the basis of 128 water temperature stations (2008-2012). In that version of the model, tree shadings is modelled by a constant factor proportional to the vegetation cover on 10 meters sides the river reaches. According to sensitivity analysis, improving the shade representation would enhance T-NET accuracy, especially for the maximum daily temperatures, which are currently not very well modelized. This study evaluates the most efficient way (accuracy/computing time) to improve the shade model thanks to 1-m resolution LIDAR data available on tributary of the LoireRiver (317 km long and an area of 8280 km²). Two methods are tested and compared: the first one is a spatially explicit computation of the cast shadow for every LIDAR pixel. The second is based on averaged vegetation cover characteristics of buffers and reaches of variable size. Validation of the water temperature model is made against 4 temperature sensors well spread along the stream, as well as two airborne thermal infrared imageries acquired in summer 2014 and winter 2015 over a 80 km reach. The poster will present the optimal length- and crosswise scale to characterize the vegetation from LIDAR data.

  15. Large Scale Skill in Regional Climate Modeling and the Lateral Boundary Condition Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veljović, K.; Rajković, B.; Mesinger, F.

    2009-04-01

    Several points are made concerning the somewhat controversial issue of regional climate modeling: should a regional climate model (RCM) be expected to maintain the large scale skill of the driver global model that is supplying its lateral boundary condition (LBC)? Given that this is normally desired, is it able to do so without help via the fairly popular large scale nudging? Specifically, without such nudging, will the RCM kinetic energy necessarily decrease with time compared to that of the driver model or analysis data as suggested by a study using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)? Finally, can the lateral boundary condition scheme make a difference: is the almost universally used but somewhat costly relaxation scheme necessary for a desirable RCM performance? Experiments are made to explore these questions running the Eta model in two versions differing in the lateral boundary scheme used. One of these schemes is the traditional relaxation scheme, and the other the Eta model scheme in which information is used at the outermost boundary only, and not all variables are prescribed at the outflow boundary. Forecast lateral boundary conditions are used, and results are verified against the analyses. Thus, skill of the two RCM forecasts can be and is compared not only against each other but also against that of the driver global forecast. A novel verification method is used in the manner of customary precipitation verification in that forecast spatial wind speed distribution is verified against analyses by calculating bias adjusted equitable threat scores and bias scores for wind speeds greater than chosen wind speed thresholds. In this way, focusing on a high wind speed value in the upper troposphere, verification of large scale features we suggest can be done in a manner that may be more physically meaningful than verifications via spectral decomposition that are a standard RCM verification method. The results we have at this point are somewhat

  16. Signatures of lower-scale gauge coupling unification in the standard model due to extended Higgs sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chizhov, M. V.; Bednyakov, V. A.

    2016-01-01

    The gauge coupling unification can be achieved at a unification scale around 5×10"1"3 GeV if the Standard Model scalar sector is extended with extra Higgs-like doublets. The relevant new scalar degrees of freedom in the form of chiral Z* and W* vector bosons might “be visible” already at about 700 GeV. Their eventual preferred coupling to the heavy quarks explains the non observation of these bosons in the first LHC run and provides promising expectation for the second LHC run.

  17. A physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides at regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Conventional outputs of physics-based landslide forecasting models are presented as deterministic warnings by calculating the safety factor (Fs of potentially dangerous slopes. However, these models are highly dependent on variables such as cohesion force and internal friction angle which are affected by a high degree of uncertainty especially at a regional scale, resulting in unacceptable uncertainties of Fs. Under such circumstances, the outputs of physical models are more suitable if presented in the form of landslide probability values. In order to develop such models, a method to link the uncertainty of soil parameter values with landslide probability is devised. This paper proposes the use of Monte Carlo methods to quantitatively express uncertainty by assigning random values to physical variables inside a defined interval. The inequality Fs < 1 is tested for each pixel in n simulations which are integrated in a unique parameter. This parameter links the landslide probability to the uncertainties of soil mechanical parameters and is used to create a physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. The prediction ability of this model was tested in a case study, in which simulated forecasting of landslide disasters associated with heavy rainfalls on 9 July 2013 in the Wenchuan earthquake region of Sichuan province, China, was performed. The proposed model successfully forecasted landslides in 159 of the 176 disaster points registered by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province. Such testing results indicate that the new model can be operated in a highly efficient way and show more reliable results, attributable to its high prediction accuracy. Accordingly, the new model can be potentially packaged into a forecasting system for shallow landslides providing technological support for the mitigation of these disasters at regional scale.

  18. Consequences of Regional Scale Nuclear Conflicts and Acts of Individual Nuclear Terrorism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toon, O. B.; Turco, R. P.; Robock, A.; Bardeen, C.; Oman, L.; Stenchikov, G. L.

    2006-12-01

    The number of nuclear warheads in the world has fallen by about a factor of three since its peak in 1986. However, the potential exists for numerous regional nuclear arms races, and for a significant expansion in the number of nuclear weapons states. Eight countries are known to have nuclear weapons, 2 are constructing them, and an additional 32 nations already have the fissile material needed to build weapons if they so desire. Population and economic activity worldwide are congregated to an increasing extent in "megacities", which are ideal targets for nuclear weapons. We find that low yield weapons, which new nuclear powers are likely to construct, can produce 100 times as many fatalities and 100 times as much smoke from fires per kt yield as high-yield weapons, if they are targeted at city centers. A single low-yield nuclear detonation in an urban center could lead to more fatalities, in some cases by orders of magnitude, than have occurred in major historical conflicts. A regional war between the smallest current nuclear states involving 100 15-kt explosions (less than 0.1% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) could produce direct fatalities comparable to all of those worldwide in World War II (WW-II), or to those once estimated for a "counterforce" nuclear war between the superpowers. Portions of megacities attacked with nuclear devices or exposed to fallout of long-lived isotopes, through armed conflict or terrorism, would likely be abandoned indefinitely, with severe national and international implications. Smoke from urban firestorms in a regional war might induce significant climatic and ozone anomalies on global scales. While there are many uncertainties in the issues we discuss here, the major uncertainties are the type and scale of conflict that might occur. Each of these potential hazards deserves careful analysis by governments worldwide advised by a broad section of the world scientific community, as well as widespread

  19. A physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shaojie; Zhao, Luqiang; Delgado-Tellez, Ricardo; Bao, Hongjun

    2018-03-01

    Conventional outputs of physics-based landslide forecasting models are presented as deterministic warnings by calculating the safety factor (Fs) of potentially dangerous slopes. However, these models are highly dependent on variables such as cohesion force and internal friction angle which are affected by a high degree of uncertainty especially at a regional scale, resulting in unacceptable uncertainties of Fs. Under such circumstances, the outputs of physical models are more suitable if presented in the form of landslide probability values. In order to develop such models, a method to link the uncertainty of soil parameter values with landslide probability is devised. This paper proposes the use of Monte Carlo methods to quantitatively express uncertainty by assigning random values to physical variables inside a defined interval. The inequality Fs soil mechanical parameters and is used to create a physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. The prediction ability of this model was tested in a case study, in which simulated forecasting of landslide disasters associated with heavy rainfalls on 9 July 2013 in the Wenchuan earthquake region of Sichuan province, China, was performed. The proposed model successfully forecasted landslides in 159 of the 176 disaster points registered by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province. Such testing results indicate that the new model can be operated in a highly efficient way and show more reliable results, attributable to its high prediction accuracy. Accordingly, the new model can be potentially packaged into a forecasting system for shallow landslides providing technological support for the mitigation of these disasters at regional scale.

  20. Development of a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model to assess population exposure at a regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caudeville, Julien; Bonnard, Roseline; Boudet, Céline; Denys, Sébastien; Govaert, Gérard; Cicolella, André

    2012-01-01

    Analyzing the relationship between the environment and health has become a major focus of public health efforts in France, as evidenced by the national action plans for health and the environment. These plans have identified the following two priorities: -identify and manage geographic areas where hotspot exposures are a potential risk to human health; and -reduce exposure inequalities. The aim of this study is to develop a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model for detecting vulnerable populations and analyzing exposure determinants at a fine resolution and regional scale. A multimedia exposure model was developed by INERIS to assess the transfer of substances from the environment to humans through inhalation and ingestion pathways. The RESPIR project adds a spatial dimension by linking GIS (Geographic Information System) to the model. Tools are developed using modeling, spatial analysis and geostatistic methods to build and discretize interesting variables and indicators from different supports and resolutions on a 1-km 2 regular grid. We applied this model to the risk assessment of exposure to metals (cadmium, lead and nickel) using data from a region in France (Nord-Pas-de-Calais). The considered exposure pathways include the atmospheric contaminant inhalation and ingestion of soil, vegetation, meat, egg, milk, fish and drinking water. Exposure scenarios are defined for different reference groups (age, dietary properties, and the fraction of food produced locally). The two largest risks correspond to an ancient industrial site (Metaleurop) and the Lille agglomeration. In these areas, cadmium, vegetation ingestion and soil contamination are the principal determinants of the computed risk. -- Highlights: ► We present a multimedia exposure model for mapping environmental disparities. ► We perform a risk assessment on a region of France at a fine scale for three metals. ► We examine exposure determinants and detect vulnerable population. ► The largest

  1. The implementation of sea ice model on a regional high-resolution scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Siva; Zakharov, Igor; Bobby, Pradeep; McGuire, Peter

    2015-09-01

    The availability of high-resolution atmospheric/ocean forecast models, satellite data and access to high-performance computing clusters have provided capability to build high-resolution models for regional ice condition simulation. The paper describes the implementation of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) on a regional scale at high resolution. The advantage of the model is its ability to include oceanographic parameters (e.g., currents) to provide accurate results. The sea ice simulation was performed over Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea to retrieve important parameters such as ice concentration, thickness, ridging, and drift. Two different forcing models, one with low resolution and another with a high resolution, were used for the estimation of sensitivity of model results. Sea ice behavior over 7 years was simulated to analyze ice formation, melting, and conditions in the region. Validation was based on comparing model results with remote sensing data. The simulated ice concentration correlated well with Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) and Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF) data. Visual comparison of ice thickness trends estimated from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite (SMOS) agreed with the simulation for year 2010-2011.

  2. The notions of resilience in spatial planning for drought - flood coexistence (DFC) at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trong Hoa, Nguyen; Vinh, Nguyen Quoc

    2018-04-01

    The notions of urban resilience and resilient city has been developed in the 2000s [1], four decades since the first concept of ecological resilience was originally introduced in the 1970s by ecologist C.S. Holling [2]. However, they have attracted great attentions and interests, in both academia and urban governance, then in planning practice over recent years. The first two sections of this paper examine the term resilience in ecological systems, urban systems, in spatial planning and in urban design. Specific attention of the paper, introduced in the third part, is to investigate resilience in the context of drought-flood coexistence (DFC), revolving two key objects and their interactions: DFC and urban at regional scale. Flood and drought events, in their turns intertwine in natural correlation, which is also reviewed. These relationships are literally investigated, to prove that they interplay mutually with each other, and that once a city develops in relation with water cycle at a regional context, in arid zone, not only hydrological drought could be regionally decreased, but human-induced floods could be ecologically regulated. The study concludes in the fourth, together with lessons from relevant case studies in America, China, with some principles on spatial planning, resilient/adaptive to DFC, which could be ecologically managed in correlation with urban development on a sustainable pathway.

  3. Towards a physically-based multi-scale ecohydrological simulator for semi-arid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caviedes-Voullième, Daniel; Josefik, Zoltan; Hinz, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    The use of numerical models as tools for describing and understanding complex ecohydrological systems has enabled to test hypothesis and propose fundamental, process-based explanations of the system system behaviour as a whole as well as its internal dynamics. Reaction-diffusion equations have been used to describe and generate organized pattern such as bands, spots, and labyrinths using simple feedback mechanisms and boundary conditions. Alternatively, pattern-matching cellular automaton models have been used to generate vegetation self-organization in arid and semi-arid regions also using simple description of surface hydrological processes. A key question is: How much physical realism is needed in order to adequately capture the pattern formation processes in semi-arid regions while reliably representing the water balance dynamics at the relevant time scales? In fact, redistribution of water by surface runoff at the hillslope scale occurs at temporal resolution of minutes while the vegetation development requires much lower temporal resolution and longer times spans. This generates a fundamental spatio-temporal multi-scale problem to be solved, for which high resolution rainfall and surface topography are required. Accordingly, the objective of this contribution is to provide proof-of-concept that governing processes can be described numerically at those multiple scales. The requirements for a simulating ecohydrological processes and pattern formation with increased physical realism are, amongst others: i. high resolution rainfall that adequately captures the triggers of growth as vegetation dynamics of arid regions respond as pulsed systems. ii. complex, natural topography in order to accurately model drainage patterns, as surface water redistribution is highly sensitive to topographic features. iii. microtopography and hydraulic roughness, as small scale variations do impact on large scale hillslope behaviour iv. moisture dependent infiltration as temporal

  4. Increases in aerosol concentrations over eastern China due to the decadal-scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jianlei; Liao, Hong; Li, Jianping

    2012-05-01

    China has been experiencing increased concentrations of aerosols, commonly attributed to the large increases in emissions associated with the rapid economic development. We show by using a chemical transport model driven by the assimilated meteorological fields that the observed decadal-scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon also contributed to the increases in aerosols in China. We find that the simulated aerosol concentrations have strong negative correlations with the strength of the East Asian Summer monsoon. Accounting for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, and organic carbon aerosols, the summer surface-layer PM2.5 concentration averaged over eastern China (110°-125°E, 20°-45°N) can be 17.7% higher in the weakest monsoon years than in the strongest monsoon years. The weakening of the East Asian Summer monsoon increases aerosol concentrations mainly by the changes in atmospheric circulation (the convergence of air pollutants) in eastern China.

  5. Evaluation of Tsunami Run-Up on Coastal Areas at Regional Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, M.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Gutiérrez, O.

    2017-12-01

    Tsunami hazard assessment is tackled by means of numerical simulations, giving as a result, the areas flooded by tsunami wave inland. To get this, some input data is required, i.e., the high resolution topobathymetry of the study area, the earthquake focal mechanism parameters, etc. The computational cost of these kinds of simulations are still excessive. An important restriction for the elaboration of large scale maps at National or regional scale is the reconstruction of high resolution topobathymetry on the coastal zone. An alternative and traditional method consists of the application of empirical-analytical formulations to calculate run-up at several coastal profiles (i.e. Synolakis, 1987), combined with numerical simulations offshore without including coastal inundation. In this case, the numerical simulations are faster but some limitations are added as the coastal bathymetric profiles are very simply idealized. In this work, we present a complementary methodology based on a hybrid numerical model, formed by 2 models that were coupled ad hoc for this work: a non-linear shallow water equations model (NLSWE) for the offshore part of the propagation and a Volume of Fluid model (VOF) for the areas near the coast and inland, applying each numerical scheme where they better reproduce the tsunami wave. The run-up of a tsunami scenario is obtained by applying the coupled model to an ad-hoc numerical flume. To design this methodology, hundreds of worldwide topobathymetric profiles have been parameterized, using 5 parameters (2 depths and 3 slopes). In addition, tsunami waves have been also parameterized by their height and period. As an application of the numerical flume methodology, the coastal parameterized profiles and tsunami waves have been combined to build a populated database of run-up calculations. The combination was tackled by means of numerical simulations in the numerical flume The result is a tsunami run-up database that considers real profiles shape

  6. Studying the extinction coefficient due to aerosol particles at different spectral bands in some regions at great Cairo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaltout, M.A. Mosalam; Tadros, M.T.Y.; El-Metwally, M.

    2000-01-01

    Extinction coefficient due to aerosol has been estimated by Pyrheliometric and Gorgie type Actinometric measurements in the industrial, urban areas and compared with agricultural areas. The measurements distributed over one year from June 1992 to May 1993 were made under clear sky for five spectral bands. The results show two maxima in hot wet and spring months and minimum in winter months, but there is a fluctuation in urban area. Diurnal variations show maximum at noon especially in the industrial area. Level of extinction coefficient in the industrial and urban area is greater that that of the agricultural area, except for hot wet months is due to the increase of water vapor content in agricultural area. Spectral distribution of the extinction coefficient decreases monotonically with wavelength. Size of particles in industrial area is greater than in urban and agricultural areas. The temperature and water vapor content have important rules in increasing the extinction coefficient of aerosols. (Author)

  7. Scale and watershed features determine lake chemistry patterns across physiographic regions in the far north of Ontario, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef MacLeod

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Changes in the far north of Ontario (>50°N latitude, like climate warming and increased industrial development, will have direct effects on watershed characteristics and lakes. To better understand the nature of remote northern lakes that span the Canadian Shield and Hudson Bay Lowlands, and to address the pressing need for limnological data for this vast, little-studied area of Ontario, lake chemistry surveys were conducted during 2011-2012. Lakes at the transition between these physiographic regions displayed highly variable water chemistry, reflecting the peatland landscape with a mix of bog and fen watersheds, and variations in the extent of permafrost. In the transition area, Shield and Lowlands lakes could not be clearly differentiated based on water chemistry; peat cover decouples, to varying degrees, the lakes from the influences of bedrock and surficial deposits. Regional chemistry differences were apparent across a much broader area of northern Ontario, due to large-scale spatial changes in geology and in the extent of peatlands and permafrost.  Shield lakes in the far northwest of Ontario had Ca, Mg, and TP concentrations markedly higher than those of many Lowlands lakes and previously studied Shield lakes south of 50°N, related to an abundance of lacustrine and glacial end-moraine deposits in the north.

  8. Fragmentation reduces regional-scale spatial genetic structure in a wind-pollinated tree because genetic barriers are removed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rong; Compton, Stephen G; Shi, Yi-Su; Chen, Xiao-Yong

    2012-09-01

    Gene flow strongly influences the regional genetic structuring of plant populations. Seed and pollen dispersal patterns can respond differently to the increased isolation resulting from habitat fragmentation, with unpredictable consequences for gene flow and population structuring. In a recently fragmented landscape we compared the pre- and post-fragmentation genetic structure of populations of a tree species where pollen and seed dispersal respond differentially to forest fragmentation generated by flooding. Castanopsis sclerophylla is wind-pollinated, with seeds that are dispersed by gravity and rodents. Using microsatellites, we found no significant difference in genetic diversity between pre- and post-fragmentation cohorts. Significant genetic structure was observed in pre-fragmentation cohorts, due to an unknown genetic barrier that had isolated one small population. Among post-fragmentation cohorts this genetic barrier had disappeared and genetic structure was significantly weakened. The strengths of genetic structuring were at a similar level in both cohorts, suggesting that overall gene flow of C. sclerophylla has been unchanged by fragmentation at the regional scale. Fragmentation has blocked seed dispersal among habitats, but this appears to have been compensated for by enhanced pollen dispersal, as indicated by the disappearance of a genetic barrier, probably as a result of increased wind speeds and easier pollen movement over water. Extensive pollen flow can counteract some negative effects of fragmentation and assist the long-term persistence of small remnant populations.

  9. Regional climate consequences of large-scale cool roof and photovoltaic array deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Millstein, Dev; Menon, Surabi

    2011-01-01

    Modifications to the surface albedo through the deployment of cool roofs and pavements (reflective materials) and photovoltaic arrays (low reflection) have the potential to change radiative forcing, surface temperatures, and regional weather patterns. In this work we investigate the regional climate and radiative effects of modifying surface albedo to mimic massive deployment of cool surfaces (roofs and pavements) and, separately, photovoltaic arrays across the United States. We use a fully coupled regional climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, to investigate feedbacks between surface albedo changes, surface temperature, precipitation and average cloud cover. With the adoption of cool roofs and pavements, domain-wide annual average outgoing radiation increased by 0.16 ± 0.03 W m -2 (mean ± 95% C.I.) and afternoon summertime temperature in urban locations was reduced by 0.11-0.53 deg. C, although some urban areas showed no statistically significant temperature changes. In response to increased urban albedo, some rural locations showed summer afternoon temperature increases of up to + 0.27 deg. C and these regions were correlated with less cloud cover and lower precipitation. The emissions offset obtained by this increase in outgoing radiation is calculated to be 3.3 ± 0.5 Gt CO 2 (mean ± 95% C.I.). The hypothetical solar arrays were designed to be able to produce one terawatt of peak energy and were located in the Mojave Desert of California. To simulate the arrays, the desert surface albedo was darkened, causing local afternoon temperature increases of up to + 0.4 deg. C. Due to the solar arrays, local and regional wind patterns within a 300 km radius were affected. Statistically significant but lower magnitude changes to temperature and radiation could be seen across the domain due to the introduction of the solar arrays. The addition of photovoltaic arrays caused no significant change to summertime outgoing radiation when averaged

  10. Cleavage crack growth resistance due to plastic flow around a near-tip dislocation-free region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tvergaard, Viggo

    1997-01-01

    ; but plastic yielding far from the tip still adds to the fracture toughness. The model employed makes use of a dislocation-free strip of elastic material, inside which the crack propagates, while the material outside the strip is described by continuum plasticity. The approximation involved in assuming......Crack growth resistance curves are computed numerically for cases where fracture occurs by atomic separation, so that the length scale of the fracture process is typically much smaller than the dislocation spacing. Here, continuum plasticity would not give realistic stress levels near the crack tip...

  11. What Shapes the Phylogenetic Structure of Anuran Communities in a Seasonal Environment? The Influence of Determinism at Regional Scale to Stochasticity or Antagonistic Forces at Local Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Clarissa de Araújo; Roque, Fabio de Oliveira; Santos, Bráulio A; Ferreira, Vanda Lúcia; Strüssmann, Christine; Tomas, Walfrido Moraes

    2015-01-01

    Ecological communities are structured by both deterministic and stochastic processes. We investigated phylogenetic patterns at regional and local scales to understand the influences of seasonal processes in shaping the structure of anuran communities in the southern Pantanal wetland, Brazil. We assessed the phylogenetic structure at different scales, using the Net Relatedness Index (NRI), the Nearest Taxon Index (NTI), and phylobetadiversity indexes, as well as a permutation test, to evaluate the effect of seasonality. The anuran community was represented by a non-random set of species with a high degree of phylogenetic relatedness at the regional scale. However, at the local scale the phylogenetic structure of the community was weakly related with the seasonality of the system, indicating that oriented stochastic processes (e.g. colonization, extinction and ecological drift) and/or antagonist forces drive the structure of such communities in the southern Pantanal.

  12. The UNH Earth Systems Observatory: A Regional Application in Support of GEOSS Global-Scale Objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorosmarty, C. J.; Braswell, B.; Fekete, B.; Glidden, S.; Hartmann, H.; Magill, A.; Prusevich, A.; Wollheim, W.; Blaha, D.; Justice, D.; Hurtt, G.; Jacobs, J.; Ollinger, S.; McDowell, W.; Rock, B.; Rubin, F.; Schloss, A.

    2006-12-01

    The Northeast corridor of the US is emblematic of the many changes taking place across the nation's and indeed the world's watersheds. Because ecosystem and watershed change occurs over many scales and is so multifaceted, transferring scientific knowledge to applications as diverse as remediation of local ground water pollution, setting State-wide best practices for non-point source pollution control, enforcing regional carbon sequestration treaties, or creating public/private partnerships for protecting ecosystem services requires a new generation of integrative environmental surveillance systems, information technology, and information transfer to the user community. Geographically complex ecosystem interactions justify moving toward more integrative, regionally-based management strategies to deal with issues affecting land, inland waterways, and coastal waterways. A unified perspective that considers the full continuum of processes which link atmospheric forcings, terrestrial responses, watershed exports along drainage networks, and the final delivery to the coastal zone, nearshore, and off shore waters is required to adequately support the management challenge. A recent inventory of NOAA-supported environmental surveillance systems, IT resources, new sensor technologies, and management-relevant decision support systems shows the community poised to formulate an integrated and operational picture of the environment of New England. This paper presents the conceptual framework and early products of the newly-created UNH Earth Systems Observatory. The goal of the UNH Observatory is to serve as a regionally-focused yet nationally-prominent platform for observation-based, integrative science and management of the New England/Gulf of Maine's land, air, and ocean environmental systems. Development of the UNH Observatory is being guided by the principles set forth under the Global Earth Observation System of Systems and is cast as an end-to-end prototype for GEOSS

  13. Recent Regional Climate State and Change - Derived through Downscaling Homogeneous Large-scale Components of Re-analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Storch, H.; Klehmet, K.; Geyer, B.; Li, D.; Schubert-Frisius, M.; Tim, N.; Zorita, E.

    2015-12-01

    Global re-analyses suffer from inhomogeneities, as they process data from networks under development. However, the large-scale component of such re-analyses is mostly homogeneous; additional observational data add in most cases to a better description of regional details and less so on large-scale states. Therefore, the concept of downscaling may be applied to homogeneously complementing the large-scale state of the re-analyses with regional detail - wherever the condition of homogeneity of the large-scales is fulfilled. Technically this can be done by using a regional climate model, or a global climate model, which is constrained on the large scale by spectral nudging. This approach has been developed and tested for the region of Europe, and a skillful representation of regional risks - in particular marine risks - was identified. While the data density in Europe is considerably better than in most other regions of the world, even here insufficient spatial and temporal coverage is limiting risk assessments. Therefore, downscaled data-sets are frequently used by off-shore industries. We have run this system also in regions with reduced or absent data coverage, such as the Lena catchment in Siberia, in the Yellow Sea/Bo Hai region in East Asia, in Namibia and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. Also a global (large scale constrained) simulation has been. It turns out that spatially detailed reconstruction of the state and change of climate in the three to six decades is doable for any region of the world.The different data sets are archived and may freely by used for scientific purposes. Of course, before application, a careful analysis of the quality for the intended application is needed, as sometimes unexpected changes in the quality of the description of large-scale driving states prevail.

  14. Bioclim Deliverable D6a: regional climatic characteristics for the European sites at specific times: the dynamical down-scaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The overall aim of BIOCLIM is to assess the possible long-term impacts due to climate change on the safety of radioactive waste repositories in deep formations. This aim is addressed through the following specific objectives: - Development of practical and innovative strategies for representing sequential climatic changes to the geosphere-biosphere system for existing sites over central Europe, addressing the timescale of one million years, which is relevant to the geological disposal of radioactive waste. - Exploration and evaluation of the potential effects of climate change on the nature of the biosphere systems used to assess the environmental impact. - Dissemination of information on the new methodologies and the results obtained from the project among the international waste management community for use in performance assessments of potential or planned radioactive waste repositories. The BIOCLIM project is designed to advance the state-of-the-art of biosphere modelling for use in Performance Assessments. Therefore, two strategies are developed for representing sequential climatic changes to geosphere-biosphere systems. The hierarchical strategy successively uses a hierarchy of climate models. These models vary from simple 2-D models, which simulate interactions between a few aspects of the Earth system at a rough surface resolution, through General Circulation Model (GCM) and vegetation model, which simulate in great detail the dynamics and physics of the atmosphere, ocean and biosphere, to regional models, which focus on the European regions and sites of interest. Moreover, rule-based and statistical down-scaling procedures are also considered. Comparisons are provided in terms of climate and vegetation cover at the selected times and for the study regions. The integrated strategy consists of using integrated climate models, representing all the physical mechanisms important for long-term continuous climate variations, to simulate the climate evolution over

  15. Caught you: threats to confidentiality due to the public release of large-scale genetic data sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wjst, Matthias

    2010-12-29

    Large-scale genetic data sets are frequently shared with other research groups and even released on the Internet to allow for secondary analysis. Study participants are usually not informed about such data sharing because data sets are assumed to be anonymous after stripping off personal identifiers. The assumption of anonymity of genetic data sets, however, is tenuous because genetic data are intrinsically self-identifying. Two types of re-identification are possible: the "Netflix" type and the "profiling" type. The "Netflix" type needs another small genetic data set, usually with less than 100 SNPs but including a personal identifier. This second data set might originate from another clinical examination, a study of leftover samples or forensic testing. When merged to the primary, unidentified set it will re-identify all samples of that individual. Even with no second data set at hand, a "profiling" strategy can be developed to extract as much information as possible from a sample collection. Starting with the identification of ethnic subgroups along with predictions of body characteristics and diseases, the asthma kids case as a real-life example is used to illustrate that approach. Depending on the degree of supplemental information, there is a good chance that at least a few individuals can be identified from an anonymized data set. Any re-identification, however, may potentially harm study participants because it will release individual genetic disease risks to the public.

  16. Caught you: threats to confidentiality due to the public release of large-scale genetic data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wjst Matthias

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Large-scale genetic data sets are frequently shared with other research groups and even released on the Internet to allow for secondary analysis. Study participants are usually not informed about such data sharing because data sets are assumed to be anonymous after stripping off personal identifiers. Discussion The assumption of anonymity of genetic data sets, however, is tenuous because genetic data are intrinsically self-identifying. Two types of re-identification are possible: the "Netflix" type and the "profiling" type. The "Netflix" type needs another small genetic data set, usually with less than 100 SNPs but including a personal identifier. This second data set might originate from another clinical examination, a study of leftover samples or forensic testing. When merged to the primary, unidentified set it will re-identify all samples of that individual. Even with no second data set at hand, a "profiling" strategy can be developed to extract as much information as possible from a sample collection. Starting with the identification of ethnic subgroups along with predictions of body characteristics and diseases, the asthma kids case as a real-life example is used to illustrate that approach. Summary Depending on the degree of supplemental information, there is a good chance that at least a few individuals can be identified from an anonymized data set. Any re-identification, however, may potentially harm study participants because it will release individual genetic disease risks to the public.

  17. Investigation of scaling characteristics for defining design environments due to transient ground winds and near-field, nonlinear acoustic fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, C. C.

    1973-01-01

    In order to establish a foundation of scaling laws for the highly nonlinear waves associated with the launch vehicle, the basic knowledge of the relationships among the paramaters pertinent to the energy dissipation process associated with the propagation of nonlinear pressure waves in thermoviscous media is required. The problem of interest is to experimentally investigate the temporal and spacial velocity profiles of fluid flow in a 3-inch open-end pipe of various lengths, produced by the propagation of nonlinear pressure waves for various diaphragm burst pressures of a pressure wave generator. As a result, temporal and spacial characteristics of wave propagation for a parametric set of nonlinear pressure waves in the pipe containing air under atmospheric conditions were determined. Velocity measurements at five sections along the pipes of up to 210 ft. in length were made with hot-film anemometers for five pressure waves produced by a piston. The piston was derived with diaphragm burst pressures at 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100 psi in the driver chamber of the pressure wave generator.

  18. Disturbance to desert soil ecosystems contributes to dust-mediated impacts at regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pointing, Stephen B.; Belnap, Jayne

    2014-01-01

    This review considers the regional scale of impacts arising from disturbance to desert soil ecosystems. Deserts occupy over one-third of the Earth’s terrestrial surface, and biological soil covers are critical to stabilization of desert soils. Disturbance to these can contribute to massive destabilization and mobilization of dust. This results in dust storms that are transported across inter-continental distances where they have profound negative impacts. Dust deposition at high altitudes causes radiative forcing of snowpack that leads directly to altered hydrological regimes and changes to freshwater biogeochemistry. In marine environments dust deposition impacts phytoplankton diazotrophy, and causes coral reef senescence. Increasingly dust is also recognized as a threat to human health.

  19. GIS Supported Landslide Susceptibility Modeling at Regional Scale: An Expert-Based Fuzzy Weighting Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Chalkias

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this paper is landslide susceptibility assessment using fuzzy expert-based modeling. Factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as elevation, slope, aspect, lithology, land cover, precipitation and seismicity were considered. Expert-based fuzzy weighting (EFW approach was used to combine these factors for landslide susceptibility mapping (Peloponnese, Greece. This method produced a landslide susceptibility map of the investigated area. The landslides under investigation have more or less same characteristics: lateral based and downslope shallow movement of soils or rocks. The validation of the model reveals, that predicted susceptibility levels are found to be in good agreement with the past landslide occurrences. Hence, the obtained landslide susceptibility map could be acceptable, for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation at regional scale.

  20. Integrating Expert Knowledge with Statistical Analysis for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment at Regional Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Chalkias

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an integration landslide susceptibility model by combining expert-based and bivariate statistical analysis (Landslide Susceptibility Index—LSI approaches is presented. Factors related with the occurrence of landslides—such as elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, land cover, Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA—were analyzed within a GIS environment. This integrated model produced a landslide susceptibility map which categorized the study area according to the probability level of landslide occurrence. The accuracy of the final map was evaluated by Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC analysis depending on an independent (validation dataset of landslide events. The prediction ability was found to be 76% revealing that the integration of statistical analysis with human expertise can provide an acceptable landslide susceptibility assessment at regional scale.

  1. Water and nutrient budgets at field and regional scale : travel times of drainage water and nutrient loads to surface water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eertwegh, van den G.A.P.H.

    2002-01-01

    Keywords : water and nutrient budget, travel time of drainage water, dual-porosity concept, agricultural nutrient losses, loads to surface water, field-scale experiments, regional-scale

  2. AQMEII3 evaluation of regional NA/EU simulations and analysis of scale, boundary conditions and emissions error-dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Through the comparison of several regional-scale chemistry transport modelling systems that simulate meteorology and air quality over the European and American continents, this study aims at i) apportioning the error to the responsible processes using time-scale analysis, ii) hel...

  3. Theoretical simulation of small scale psychometric solar water desalination system in semi-arid region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shatat, Mahmoud; Omer, Siddig; Gillott, Mark; Riffat, Saffa

    2013-01-01

    Many countries around the world suffer from water scarcity. This is especially true in remote and semi-arid regions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) where per capita water supplies decline as populations increase. This paper presents the results of a theoretical simulation of an affordable small scale solar water desalination plant using the psychometric humidification and dehumidification process coupled with an evacuated tube solar collector with an area of about 2 m 2 . A mathematical model was developed to describe the system's operation. Then a computer program using Simulink Matlab software was developed to provide the governing equations for the theoretical calculations of the humidification and dehumidification processes. The experimental and theoretical values for the total daily distillate output were found to be closely correlated. After the experimental calibration of the mathematical model, a model simulating solar radiation under the climatic conditions in the Middle East region proved that the performance of the system could be improved to produce a considerably higher amount of fresh water, namely up to 17.5 kg/m 2 day. This work suggests that utilizing the concept of humidification and dehumidification, a compact water desalination unit coupled with solar collectors would significantly increase the potable water supply in remote area. It could be a unique solution of water shortages in such areas. -- Highlights: • An affordable small scale desalination system is proposed. • A mathematical model of the desalination system is developed and programmed using Matlab Simulink. • The model describes the psychometric process based on humidification and dehumidification. • The model is used in optimal selection of elements and operating conditions for solar desalination system. • The use of solar water desalination contributes significantly to reducing global warming

  4. Spatial and topographic trends in forest expansion and biomass change, from regional to local scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buma, Brian; Barrett, Tara M

    2015-09-01

    Natural forest growth and expansion are important carbon sequestration processes globally. Climate change is likely to increase forest growth in some regions via CO2 fertilization, increased temperatures, and altered precipitation; however, altered disturbance regimes and climate stress (e.g. drought) will act to reduce carbon stocks in forests as well. Observations of asynchrony in forest change is useful in determining current trends in forest carbon stocks, both in terms of forest density (e.g. Mg ha(-1) ) and spatially (extent and location). Monitoring change in natural (unmanaged) areas is particularly useful, as while afforestation and recovery from historic land use are currently large carbon sinks, the long-term viability of those sinks depends on climate change and disturbance dynamics at their particular location. We utilize a large, unmanaged biome (>135 000 km(2) ) which spans a broad latitudinal gradient to explore how variation in location affects forest density and spatial patterning: the forests of the North American temperate rainforests in Alaska, which store >2.8 Pg C in biomass and soil, equivalent to >8% of the C in contiguous US forests. We demonstrate that the regional biome is shifting; gains exceed losses and are located in different spatio-topographic contexts. Forest gains are concentrated on northerly aspects, lower elevations, and higher latitudes, especially in sheltered areas, whereas loss is skewed toward southerly aspects and lower latitudes. Repeat plot-scale biomass data (n = 759) indicate that within-forest biomass gains outpace losses (live trees >12.7 cm diameter, 986 Gg yr(-1) ) on gentler slopes and in higher latitudes. This work demonstrates that while temperate rainforest dynamics occur at fine spatial scales (biomass accumulation suggest the potential for relatively rapid biome shifts and biomass changes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Applying micro scales of horizontal axis wind turbines for operation in low wind speed regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pourrajabian, Abolfazl; Ebrahimi, Reza; Mirzaei, Masoud

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Three micro-turbines with output power less than 1 kW were designed for operation in low wind speed regions. • In addition to the output power, starting time was considered as a key parameter during the design. • The effects of generator resistive torque and number of blades on the performance of the turbines were investigated. - Abstract: Utilizing the micro scales of wind turbines could noticeably supply the demand for the electricity in low wind speed regions. Aerodynamic design and optimization of the blade, as a main part of a wind turbine, were addressed in the study. Three micro scales of horizontal axis wind turbines with output power of 0.5, 0.75 and 1 kW were considered and the geometric optimization of the blades in terms of the two involved parameters, chord and twist, was undertaken. In order to improve the performance of the turbines at low wind speeds, starting time was included in an objective function in addition to the output power – the main and desirable goal of the wind turbine blade design. A purpose-built genetic algorithm was employed to maximize both the output power and the starting performance which were calculated by the blade-element momentum theory. The results emphasize that the larger values of the chord and twist at the root part of the blades are indispensable for the better performance when the wind speed is low. However, the noticeable value of the generator resistive torque could largely delay the starting of the micro-turbines especially for the considered smaller size, 0.5 kW, where the starting aerodynamic torque could not overcome the generator resistive torque. For that size, an increase in the number of blades improved both the starting performance and also output power

  6. Cross tropopause flux observed at sub-daily scales over the south Indian monsoon regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemanth Kumar, A.; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Sunilkumar, S. V.; Parameswaran, K.; Krishna Murthy, B. V.

    2018-03-01

    The effect of deep convection on the thermal structure and dynamics of the tropical tropopause at sub daily scales is investigated using data from radiosondes launched over two sites in the Indian Monsoon region (Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) and Trivandrum (8.5°N, 76.9°E)) conducted between December 2010 and March 2014. The data from these soundings are classified into 5 convective categories based on the past, present and future cloudiness over the launching region after the radiosonde has reached tropopause altitude. They are denoted as category 1 (no convection), category 2 (convection may occur in any of the next 3 h), category 3 (convection occurred prior 3 h), category 4 (convection terminated within 3 h of launching) and category 5 (convection persistent throughout the considered period). The anomalies from the background in temperature, relative humidity and wind speed are grouped into the aforementioned five different convective categories for both the stations. Cooling and moisture anomalies are found during the active convection (category 5). The horizontal wind speed showed a strong anomaly indicating the presence of synoptic scale features. Vertical wind obtained simultaneously from the MST radar over Gadanki clearly showed strong updraft during the active convection. The ozone profiles from ozonesondes launched during the same period are also segregated according to the above convective categories. During the active convection, high and low ozone values are found in the upper troposphere and the lower troposphere, respectively. The cross tropopause ozone mass flux and vertical wind at the tropopause and convective outflow level estimated from the ozonesonde, and MST radar/ERA-Interim data showed positive values indicating the transport of ozone between troposphere and stratosphere during deep convection. Similarly, the total mass flux crossing the cold point tropopause over Gadanki showed upward flux during the active convection. The variability of

  7. Some aspects of the population relocation from Bryansk region areas contaminated due to the Chernobyl NPP accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kislov, M.V.; Karlin, N.E.; Liberman, A.N.; Bronshtejn, I.Eh.; Nuralov, V.N.; Karlina, L.V.

    1993-01-01

    The paper presents the results of the investigations carried out in 1992 linked with the resettlement of people from the Bryansk region areas affected by the Chernobyl accident with analysis of some use-harm indices. Resettlement is shown to be the most radical way of protection and to prevent completely the effect of irradiation, but to be accomplished with the essential money expenses ad inadequately determined social-and-psychological and medical-and-biological consequences for people health. Decision about people resettlement, especially at the accident latest stage, should be obligatory based on the use-harm analysis

  8. Population exposure due to nuclear medical diagnosis and therapy in the Munich and Rottal/Inn regions in 1978

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beer, C.

    1983-01-01

    The cases are systematically evaluated with a view to the number of examinations, applied activities, gonadal doses and genetically significant dose. sup(99m)Tc-pertechnetate was applied in more than 50% of the cases. 131 I-iodide examinations were carried out only in Munich. sup(99m)Tc-pertechnetate and sup(99m)Tc-methylen disphosphonate account for 3/4 of the total GSD. Of the organ examinations, bone scintiscanning contributes most to the GSD. The Munich region has the highest total GSD value (0.907 mrem). (DG) [de

  9. Estimating evapotranspiration change due to forest treatment and fire at the basin scale in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roche, J. W.; Goulden, M.; Bales, R. C.

    2017-12-01

    Increased forest evapotranspiration (ET) coupled with snowpack decreases in a warming climate is likely to decrease runoff and increase forest drought stress. Field experiments and modeling suggest that forest thinning can reduce ET and thus increase potential runoff relative to untreated areas. We investigated the potential magnitude and duration of ET decreases resulting from forest-thinning treatments and fire using a robust empirical relation between Landsat-derived mean-annual normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and annual ET measured at flux towers. Among forest treatments, the minimum observed NDVI change required to produce a significant departure from control plots with NDVI of about 0.70 was -0.07 units, corresponding to a basal-area reduction of 3.1 m2 ha-1, and equivalent to an estimated ET reduction of -102 mm yr-1. Intensive thinning in highly productive forests that approached pre-fire-exclusion densities reduced basal area by 40-50%, generating estimated ET reductions of 152-216 mm yr-1 over five years following treatment. Between 1990 and 2008, fires in the American River basin generated more than twice the ET reduction per unit area than those in the Kings River basin, corresponding to greater water and energy limitations in the latter and greater fire severity in the former. A rough extrapolation of these results to the entire American River watershed, much of which would have burned naturally during this 19-year period, could result in ET reductions that approach 10% of full natural flows for drought years and 5% averaged over all years. This work demonstrates the potential utility to estimate forest ET change at the patch scale, which in turn may allow managers to estimate thinning benefits in areas lacking detailed hydrologic measurements.

  10. Two-Body Orbit Expansion Due to Time-Dependent Relative Acceleration Rate of the Cosmological Scale Factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Iorio

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available By phenomenologically assuming a slow temporal variation of the percent acceleration rate S̈S -1 of the cosmic scale factor S(t, it is shown that the orbit of a local binary undergoes a secular expansion. To first order in the power expansion of S̈S -1 around the present epoch t0, a non-vanishing shift per orbit (Δr of the two-body relative distance r occurs for eccentric trajectories. A general relativistic expression, which turns out to be cubic in the Hubble parameter H0 at the present epoch, is explicitly calculated for it in the case of matter-dominated epochs with Dark Energy. For a highly eccentric Oort comet orbit with period Pb ≈ 31 Myr, the general relativistic distance shift per orbit turns out to be of the order of (Δr ≈ 70 km. For the Large Magellanic Cloud, assumed on a bound elliptic orbit around the Milky Way, the shift per orbit is of the order of (Δr ≈ 2–4 pc. Our result has a general validity since it holds in any cosmological model admitting the Hubble law and a slowly varying S̈S-1(t. More generally, it is valid for an arbitrary Hooke-like extra-acceleration whose “elastic” parameter κ is slowly time-dependent, irrespectively of the physical mechanism which may lead to it. The coefficient κ1 of the first-order term of the power expansion of κ(t can be preliminarily constrained in a model-independent way down to a κ1 ≲ 2 x 10-13 year-3 level from latest Solar System’s planetary observations. The radial velocities of the double lined spectroscopic binary ALPHA Cen AB yield κ1 ≲ 10-8 year-3.

  11. Region-scale groundwater flow modelling of generic high level waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metcalfe, D.

    1996-02-01

    Regional-scale groundwater flow modelling analyses are performed on generic high level waste (HLW) disposal sites to assess the extent to which a large crystalline rock mass such as a pluton or batholith can be expected to contain and isolate HLW in terms of hydraulic considerations, for a variety of geologic and hydrogeologic conditions. The two-dimensional cross-sectional conceptual models of generic HLW disposal sites are evaluated using SWIFT III, which is a finite-difference flow and transport code. All steps leading to the final results and conclusions are incorporated in this report. The available data and information on geological and hydrogeologic conditions in plutons and batholiths are summarized. The generic conceptual models developed from this information are defined in terms of the finite difference grid, the geologic and hydrogeologic properties and the hydrologic boundary conditions used. The modelled results are described with contour maps showing the modelled head fields, groundwater flow paths and travel times and groundwater flux rates within the modelled systems. The results of the modelling analyses are used to develop general conclusions on the scales and patterns of groundwater flow in granitic plutons and batholiths. The conclusions focus on geologic and hydrogeologic characteristics that can result in favourable conditions, in terms of hydraulic considerations, for a HLW repository. (author) 43 refs., 9 tabs., 40 figs

  12. Regional-Scale Drivers of Forest Structure and Function in Northwestern Amazonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Mark A.; Asner, Gregory P.; Anderson, Christopher B.; Martin, Roberta E.; Knapp, David E.; Tupayachi, Raul; Perez, Eneas; Elespuru, Nydia; Alonso, Alfonso

    2015-01-01

    Field studies in Amazonia have found a relationship at continental scales between soil fertility and broad trends in forest structure and function. Little is known at regional scales, however, about how discrete patterns in forest structure or functional attributes map onto underlying edaphic or geological patterns. We collected airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data and VSWIR (Visible to Shortwave Infrared) imaging spectroscopy measurements over 600 km2 of northwestern Amazonian lowland forests. We also established 83 inventories of plant species composition and soil properties, distributed between two widespread geological formations. Using these data, we mapped forest structure and canopy reflectance, and compared them to patterns in plant species composition, soils, and underlying geology. We found that variations in soils and species composition explained up to 70% of variation in canopy height, and corresponded to profound changes in forest vertical profiles. We further found that soils and plant species composition explained more than 90% of the variation in canopy reflectance as measured by imaging spectroscopy, indicating edaphic and compositional control of canopy chemical properties. We last found that soils explained between 30% and 70% of the variation in gap frequency in these forests, depending on the height threshold used to define gaps. Our findings indicate that a relatively small number of edaphic and compositional variables, corresponding to underlying geology, may be responsible for variations in canopy structure and chemistry over large expanses of Amazonian forest. PMID:25793602

  13. Regional-scale drivers of forest structure and function in northwestern Amazonia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Higgins

    Full Text Available Field studies in Amazonia have found a relationship at continental scales between soil fertility and broad trends in forest structure and function. Little is known at regional scales, however, about how discrete patterns in forest structure or functional attributes map onto underlying edaphic or geological patterns. We collected airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging data and VSWIR (Visible to Shortwave Infrared imaging spectroscopy measurements over 600 km2 of northwestern Amazonian lowland forests. We also established 83 inventories of plant species composition and soil properties, distributed between two widespread geological formations. Using these data, we mapped forest structure and canopy reflectance, and compared them to patterns in plant species composition, soils, and underlying geology. We found that variations in soils and species composition explained up to 70% of variation in canopy height, and corresponded to profound changes in forest vertical profiles. We further found that soils and plant species composition explained more than 90% of the variation in canopy reflectance as measured by imaging spectroscopy, indicating edaphic and compositional control of canopy chemical properties. We last found that soils explained between 30% and 70% of the variation in gap frequency in these forests, depending on the height threshold used to define gaps. Our findings indicate that a relatively small number of edaphic and compositional variables, corresponding to underlying geology, may be responsible for variations in canopy structure and chemistry over large expanses of Amazonian forest.

  14. A regional scale modeling framework combining biogeochemical model with life cycle and economic analysis for integrated assessment of cropping systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabatabaie, Seyed Mohammad Hossein; Bolte, John P; Murthy, Ganti S

    2018-06-01

    The goal of this study was to integrate a crop model, DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition), with life cycle assessment (LCA) and economic analysis models using a GIS-based integrated platform, ENVISION. The integrated model enables LCA practitioners to conduct integrated economic analysis and LCA on a regional scale while capturing the variability of soil emissions due to variation in regional factors during production of crops and biofuel feedstocks. In order to evaluate the integrated model, the corn-soybean cropping system in Eagle Creek Watershed, Indiana was studied and the integrated model was used to first model the soil emissions and then conduct the LCA as well as economic analysis. The results showed that the variation in soil emissions due to variation in weather is high causing some locations to be carbon sink in some years and source of CO 2 in other years. In order to test the model under different scenarios, two tillage scenarios were defined: 1) conventional tillage (CT) and 2) no tillage (NT) and analyzed with the model. The overall GHG emissions for the corn-soybean cropping system was simulated and results showed that the NT scenario resulted in lower soil GHG emissions compared to CT scenario. Moreover, global warming potential (GWP) of corn ethanol from well to pump varied between 57 and 92gCO 2 -eq./MJ while GWP under the NT system was lower than that of the CT system. The cost break-even point was calculated as $3612.5/ha in a two year corn-soybean cropping system and the results showed that under low and medium prices for corn and soybean most of the farms did not meet the break-even point. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Regional 3-D Modeling of Ground Geoelectric Field for the Northeast United States due to Realistic Geomagnetic Disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivannikova, E.; Kruglyakov, M.; Kuvshinov, A. V.; Rastaetter, L.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Ngwira, C. M.

    2017-12-01

    During extreme space weather events electric currents in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere experience large variations, which leads to dramatic intensification of the fluctuating magnetic field at the surface of the Earth. According to Faraday's law of induction, the fluctuating geomagnetic field in turn induces electric field that generates harmful currents (so-called "geomagnetically induced currents"; GICs) in grounded technological systems. Understanding (via modeling) of the spatio-temporal evolution of the geoelectric field during enhanced geomagnetic activity is a key consideration in estimating the hazard to technological systems from space weather. We present the results of ground geoelectric field modeling for the Northeast United States, which is performed with the use of our novel numerical tool based on integral equation approach. The tool exploits realistic regional three-dimensional (3-D) models of the Earth's electrical conductivity and realistic global models of the spatio-temporal evolution of the magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems responsible for geomagnetic disturbances. We also explore in detail the manifestation of the coastal effect (anomalous intensification of the geoelectric field near the coasts) in this region.

  16. Multi-scale associations between vegetation cover and woodland bird communities across a large agricultural region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Ikin

    Full Text Available Improving biodiversity conservation in fragmented agricultural landscapes has become an important global issue. Vegetation at the patch and landscape-scale is important for species occupancy and diversity, yet few previous studies have explored multi-scale associations between vegetation and community assemblages. Here, we investigated how patch and landscape-scale vegetation cover structure woodland bird communities. We asked: (1 How is the bird community associated with the vegetation structure of woodland patches and the amount of vegetation cover in the surrounding landscape? (2 Do species of conservation concern respond to woodland vegetation structure and surrounding vegetation cover differently to other species in the community? And (3 Can the relationships between the bird community and the woodland vegetation structure and surrounding vegetation cover be explained by the ecological traits of the species comprising the bird community? We studied 103 woodland patches (0.5 - 53.8 ha over two time periods across a large (6,800 km(2 agricultural region in southeastern Australia. We found that both patch vegetation and surrounding woody vegetation cover were important for structuring the bird community, and that these relationships were consistent over time. In particular, the occurrence of mistletoe within the patches and high values of woody vegetation cover within 1,000 ha and 10,000 ha were important, especially for bird species of conservation concern. We found that the majority of these species displayed similar, positive responses to patch and landscape vegetation attributes. We also found that these relationships were related to the foraging and nesting traits of the bird community. Our findings suggest that management strategies to increase both remnant vegetation quality and the cover of surrounding woody vegetation in fragmented agricultural landscapes may lead to improved conservation of bird communities.

  17. Assessment of good manufacturing practice for small scale food industry in Malang region, East Java, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purwantiningrum, I.; Widyhastuty, W.; Christian, J.; Sari, N.

    2018-03-01

    Enhancing food safety in developing countries, such as Indonesia, poses more challenges, especially those of the small- and medium-scale. Various food safety systems are available and readily implemented in the food industry. However, to ensure the effectiveness of such systems, pre-requisite programs should be applied prior to the implementation of food safety system. One of the most acknowledged pre-requisite program is Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP). The aim of this study is to assess the GMP compliance of some small-scale food companies in East Java. Three types of traditional food product were selected, include tempe chips, palm sugar, and instant herbal drink. A survey involving three companies for each type of traditional food was conducted. Data was obtained through observation and assessment based on tabulated criteria in GMP criteria. In essential, the result revealed the compliment level of the food companies being surveyed. There was different level of compliment between each type of the food industry, where the palm sugar industry had the lowest level of compliment compared to the other two. This difference is due to the food safety awareness, social and cultural influences, and also knowledge on food safety and hygiene practice.

  18. A study on the regionalization of tornadogenesis for the domestic largest scale of tornado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugimoto, Soichiro; Nohara, Daisuke; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

    2014-01-01

    A new regulatory guide has been issued by the Nuclear Regulation Authority of Japan since the last year. According to this guide, electric power companies have to assess the influence of tornadoes on their nuclear power plants for operation. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the likelihood of the occurrence of F3 tornadoes, which are the largest encountered in Japan, and to consider the possibility of the regionalization of the maximum wind speed. Then, mesoscale analysis with a numerical meteorological model and re-analysis data is performed along with synoptic scale analysis. Especially, tornado parameters such as SReH (Storm Relative Helicity) and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) are used for evaluating the potential tornadogenesis of F3 tornado. Both analyses indicate that favorable meteorological condition tends to occur in the coastal zones in the Pacific side west of Ibaraki and around Kyushu island. The frequency in these zones is different from the one in the other area in the order of 1 or 2, which is large enough for regionalization. (author)

  19. Decentralized electrification by small-scale hydraulic stations : a viable solution in mountainous regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahman Saidi, A.

    1998-01-01

    The installation of a small-scale hydroelectric generating station to supply electricity to the small community of Takordmi in Morocco was described. The community of Takordmi consists of 32 households located in the remote mountainous region of Morocco. Takordmi was without electrical power until 1992 when a small 15 kW Pelton turbine was installed to supply electricity to the residents. Water to power the turbine generator was supplied by a small stream with an output of 4 to 8 liters per second and a head of 535 meters. Since the unit was installed, the mean monthly consumption of the community has been only 115 kWh, which averages to 4 kWh per household. The success of the Takordmi project has prompted the electrification of several other small communities in the remote regions of Morocco either by similar micro-hydroelectric stations or by photovoltaic cells. This project, funded by the Republic of Austria, demonstrates that it is feasible to provide electricity to remote rural communities by using local sources of power. 3 figs

  20. Reducing Agricultural Water Footprints at the Farm Scale: A Case Study in the Beijing Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Huang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Beijing is one of the most water-stressed regions in the world. Reducing agricultural water use has long been the basis of local policy for sustainable water use. In this article, the potential to reduce the life cycle (cradle to gate water footprints of wheat and maize that contribute to 94% of the local cereal production was assessed. Following ISO 14046, consumptive and degradative water use for the wheat-maize rotation system was modeled under different irrigation and nitrogen (N application options. Reducing irrigation water volume by 33.3% compared to current practice did not cause a significant yield decline, but the water scarcity footprint and water eutrophication footprint were decreased by 27.5% and 23.9%, respectively. Similarly, reducing the N application rate by 33.3% from current practice did not cause a significant yield decline, but led to a 52.3% reduction in water eutrophication footprint while maintaining a similar water scarcity footprint. These results demonstrate that improving water and fertilizer management has great potential for reducing the crop water footprints at the farm scale. This situation in Beijing is likely to be representative of the challenge facing many of the water-stressed regions in China, where a sustainable means of agricultural production must be found.

  1. On the link between column density distribution and density scaling relation in star formation regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veltchev, Todor; Donkov, Sava; Stanchev, Orlin

    2017-07-01

    We present a method to derive the density scaling relation ∝ L^{-α} in regions of star formation or in their turbulent vicinities from straightforward binning of the column-density distribution (N-pdf). The outcome of the method is studied for three types of N-pdf: power law (7/5≤α≤5/3), lognormal (0.7≲α≲1.4) and combination of lognormals. In the last case, the method of Stanchev et al. (2015) was also applied for comparison and a very weak (or close to zero) correlation was found. We conclude that the considered `binning approach' reflects rather the local morphology of the N-pdf with no reference to the physical conditions in a considered region. The rough consistency of the derived slopes with the widely adopted Larson's (1981) value α˜1.1 is suggested to support claims that the density-size relation in molecular clouds is indeed an artifact of the observed N-pdf.

  2. Assessment of applications of transport models on regional scale solute transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Z.; Fogg, G. E.; Henri, C.; Pauloo, R.

    2017-12-01

    Regional scale transport models are needed to support the long-term evaluation of groundwater quality and to develop management strategies aiming to prevent serious groundwater degradation. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the capacity of previously-developed upscaling approaches to accurately describe main solute transport processes including the capture of late-time tails under changing boundary conditions. Advective-dispersive contaminant transport in a 3D heterogeneous domain was simulated and used as a reference solution. Equivalent transport under homogeneous flow conditions were then evaluated applying the Multi-Rate Mass Transfer (MRMT) model. The random walk particle tracking method was used for both heterogeneous and homogeneous-MRMT scenarios under steady state and transient conditions. The results indicate that the MRMT model can capture the tails satisfactorily for plume transported with ambient steady-state flow field. However, when boundary conditions change, the mass transfer model calibrated for transport under steady-state conditions cannot accurately reproduce the tailing effect observed for the heterogeneous scenario. The deteriorating impact of transient boundary conditions on the upscaled model is more significant for regions where flow fields are dramatically affected, highlighting the poor applicability of the MRMT approach for complex field settings. Accurately simulating mass in both mobile and immobile zones is critical to represent the transport process under transient flow conditions and will be the future focus of our study.

  3. Assessing regional and interspecific variation in threshold responses of forest breeding birds through broad scale analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yntze van der Hoek

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Identifying persistence and extinction thresholds in species-habitat relationships is a major focal point of ecological research and conservation. However, one major concern regarding the incorporation of threshold analyses in conservation is the lack of knowledge on the generality and transferability of results across species and regions. We present a multi-region, multi-species approach of modeling threshold responses, which we use to investigate whether threshold effects are similar across species and regions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We modeled local persistence and extinction dynamics of 25 forest-associated breeding birds based on detection/non-detection data, which were derived from repeated breeding bird atlases for the state of Vermont. We did not find threshold responses to be particularly well-supported, with 9 species supporting extinction thresholds and 5 supporting persistence thresholds. This contrasts with a previous study based on breeding bird atlas data from adjacent New York State, which showed that most species support persistence and extinction threshold models (15 and 22 of 25 study species respectively. In addition, species that supported a threshold model in both states had associated average threshold estimates of 61.41% (SE = 6.11, persistence and 66.45% (SE = 9.15, extinction in New York, compared to 51.08% (SE = 10.60, persistence and 73.67% (SE = 5.70, extinction in Vermont. Across species, thresholds were found at 19.45-87.96% forest cover for persistence and 50.82-91.02% for extinction dynamics. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Through an approach that allows for broad-scale comparisons of threshold responses, we show that species vary in their threshold responses with regard to habitat amount, and that differences between even nearby regions can be pronounced. We present both ecological and methodological factors that may contribute to the different model results, but propose that

  4. Assessing regional and interspecific variation in threshold responses of forest breeding birds through broad scale analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Hoek, Yntze; Renfrew, Rosalind; Manne, Lisa L

    2013-01-01

    Identifying persistence and extinction thresholds in species-habitat relationships is a major focal point of ecological research and conservation. However, one major concern regarding the incorporation of threshold analyses in conservation is the lack of knowledge on the generality and transferability of results across species and regions. We present a multi-region, multi-species approach of modeling threshold responses, which we use to investigate whether threshold effects are similar across species and regions. We modeled local persistence and extinction dynamics of 25 forest-associated breeding birds based on detection/non-detection data, which were derived from repeated breeding bird atlases for the state of Vermont. We did not find threshold responses to be particularly well-supported, with 9 species supporting extinction thresholds and 5 supporting persistence thresholds. This contrasts with a previous study based on breeding bird atlas data from adjacent New York State, which showed that most species support persistence and extinction threshold models (15 and 22 of 25 study species respectively). In addition, species that supported a threshold model in both states had associated average threshold estimates of 61.41% (SE = 6.11, persistence) and 66.45% (SE = 9.15, extinction) in New York, compared to 51.08% (SE = 10.60, persistence) and 73.67% (SE = 5.70, extinction) in Vermont. Across species, thresholds were found at 19.45-87.96% forest cover for persistence and 50.82-91.02% for extinction dynamics. Through an approach that allows for broad-scale comparisons of threshold responses, we show that species vary in their threshold responses with regard to habitat amount, and that differences between even nearby regions can be pronounced. We present both ecological and methodological factors that may contribute to the different model results, but propose that regardless of the reasons behind these differences, our results merit a warning that

  5. Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamasco, A.; Budgell, W. P.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.

    2005-03-01

    Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays--a non-glacial period--appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution of working group I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense-water formation sites act as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus131961224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air-sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean deep convection and open-sea ice formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and

  6. Using gridded multimedia model to simulate spatial fate of Benzo[α]pyrene on regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shijie; Lu, Yonglong; Wang, Tieyu; Xie, Shuangwei; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

    2014-02-01

    Predicting the environmental multimedia fate is an essential step in the process of assessing the human exposure and health impacts of chemicals released into the environment. Multimedia fate models have been widely applied to calculate the fate and distribution of chemicals in the environment, which can serve as input to a human exposure model. In this study, a grid based multimedia fugacity model at regional scale was developed together with a case study modeling the fate and transfer of Benzo[α]pyrene (BaP) in Bohai coastal region, China. Based on the estimated emission and in-site survey in 2008, the BaP concentrations in air, vegetation, soil, fresh water, fresh water sediment and coastal water as well as the transfer fluxes were derived under the steady-state assumption. The model results were validated through comparison between the measured and modeled concentrations of BaP. The model results indicated that the predicted concentrations of BaP in air, fresh water, soil and sediment generally agreed with field observations. Model predictions suggest that soil was the dominant sink of BaP in terrestrial systems. Flow from air to soil, vegetation and costal water were three major pathways of BaP inter-media transport processes. Most of the BaP entering the sea was transferred by air flow, which was also the crucial driving force in the spatial distribution processes of BaP. The Yellow River, Liaohe River and Daliao River played an important role in the spatial transformation processes of BaP. Compared with advection outflow, degradation was more important in removal processes of BaP. Sensitivities of the model estimates to input parameters were tested. The result showed that emission rates, compartment dimensions, transport velocity and degradation rates of BaP were the most influential parameters for the model output. Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to determine parameter uncertainty, from which the coefficients of variation for the estimated Ba

  7. Pedestrian detection in thermal images: An automated scale based region extraction with curvelet space validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakshmi, A.; Faheema, A. G. J.; Deodhare, Dipti

    2016-05-01

    Pedestrian detection is a key problem in night vision processing with a dozen of applications that will positively impact the performance of autonomous systems. Despite significant progress, our study shows that performance of state-of-the-art thermal image pedestrian detectors still has much room for improvement. The purpose of this paper is to overcome the challenge faced by the thermal image pedestrian detectors, which employ intensity based Region Of Interest (ROI) extraction followed by feature based validation. The most striking disadvantage faced by the first module, ROI extraction, is the failed detection of cloth insulted parts. To overcome this setback, this paper employs an algorithm and a principle of region growing pursuit tuned to the scale of the pedestrian. The statistics subtended by the pedestrian drastically vary with the scale and deviation from normality approach facilitates scale detection. Further, the paper offers an adaptive mathematical threshold to resolve the problem of subtracting the background while extracting cloth insulated parts as well. The inherent false positives of the ROI extraction module are limited by the choice of good features in pedestrian validation step. One such feature is curvelet feature, which has found its use extensively in optical images, but has as yet no reported results in thermal images. This has been used to arrive at a pedestrian detector with a reduced false positive rate. This work is the first venture made to scrutinize the utility of curvelet for characterizing pedestrians in thermal images. Attempt has also been made to improve the speed of curvelet transform computation. The classification task is realized through the use of the well known methodology of Support Vector Machines (SVMs). The proposed method is substantiated with qualified evaluation methodologies that permits us to carry out probing and informative comparisons across state-of-the-art features, including deep learning methods, with six

  8. Dissonance and harmony between global and regional-scale seismic anisotropy and mantle dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, T. W.

    2017-12-01

    Huge numbers of SKS splitting observations and improved surface-wave based models of azimuthal anisotropy have advanced our understanding of how convection is recorded in mantle fabrics in the upper mantle. However, we are still debating the relative importance of frozen to actively forming olivine fabrics, subduction zone anisotropy lacks a clear reference model, and regional marine studies yield conflicting evidence as to what exactly is going on at the base of the plates and below. Here, I review the degree of agreement between regional and global observations of seismic anisotropy and how well those may be matched by first-order mantle convection models. Updated bean counting can help contextualize the spatial scales of alignment, and I discuss several examples of the relative roles of plate shear to mantle density anomalies and frozen-in structure for oceanic and continental plates. Resolution of seismological models is globally uneven, but there are some locales where such exercises may yield information on the relative strength of asthenosphere and mantle. Another long-standing question is how olivine fabrics record flow under different stress and volatile conditions. I illustrate how different petrological assumptions might be used to reconcile observations of azimuthal dependency of wave speeds for both Love and Rayleigh waves, and how this could improve our models of the upper mantle, much in the spirit of Montagner's vectorial tomography. This is but one approach to improve the regional realism of global geodynamic background models to understand where in space and time dissonance arises, and if a harmonious model may yet be constructed given our assumptions about the workings of the mantle.

  9. Genome-scale prediction of proteins with long intrinsically disordered regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Zhenling; Mizianty, Marcin J; Kurgan, Lukasz

    2014-01-01

    Proteins with long disordered regions (LDRs), defined as having 30 or more consecutive disordered residues, are abundant in eukaryotes, and these regions are recognized as a distinct class of biologically functional domains. LDRs facilitate various cellular functions and are important for target selection in structural genomics. Motivated by the lack of methods that directly predict proteins with LDRs, we designed Super-fast predictor of proteins with Long Intrinsically DisordERed regions (SLIDER). SLIDER utilizes logistic regression that takes an empirically chosen set of numerical features, which consider selected physicochemical properties of amino acids, sequence complexity, and amino acid composition, as its inputs. Empirical tests show that SLIDER offers competitive predictive performance combined with low computational cost. It outperforms, by at least a modest margin, a comprehensive set of modern disorder predictors (that can indirectly predict LDRs) and is 16 times faster compared to the best currently available disorder predictor. Utilizing our time-efficient predictor, we characterized abundance and functional roles of proteins with LDRs over 110 eukaryotic proteomes. Similar to related studies, we found that eukaryotes have many (on average 30.3%) proteins with LDRs with majority of proteomes having between 25 and 40%, where higher abundance is characteristic to proteomes that have larger proteins. Our first-of-its-kind large-scale functional analysis shows that these proteins are enriched in a number of cellular functions and processes including certain binding events, regulation of catalytic activities, cellular component organization, biogenesis, biological regulation, and some metabolic and developmental processes. A webserver that implements SLIDER is available at http://biomine.ece.ualberta.ca/SLIDER/. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Development of a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model to assess population exposure at a regional scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caudeville, Julien, E-mail: Julien.CAUDEVILLE@ineris.fr [INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Joint research unit UMR 6599, Heudiasyc (Heuristic and Diagnoses of Complex Systems), University of Technology of Compiegne and CNRS, Rue du Dr Schweitzer, 60200 Compiegne (France); Bonnard, Roseline, E-mail: Roseline.BONNARD@ineris.fr [INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Boudet, Celine, E-mail: Celine.BOUDET@ineris.fr [INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Denys, Sebastien, E-mail: Sebastien.DENYS@ineris.fr [INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Govaert, Gerard, E-mail: gerard.govaert@utc.fr [Joint research unit UMR 6599, Heudiasyc (Heuristic and Diagnoses of Complex Systems), University of Technology of Compiegne and CNRS, Rue du Dr Schweitzer, 60200 Compiegne (France); Cicolella, Andre, E-mail: Andre.CICOLELLA@ineris.fr [INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France)

    2012-08-15

    Analyzing the relationship between the environment and health has become a major focus of public health efforts in France, as evidenced by the national action plans for health and the environment. These plans have identified the following two priorities: -identify and manage geographic areas where hotspot exposures are a potential risk to human health; and -reduce exposure inequalities. The aim of this study is to develop a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model for detecting vulnerable populations and analyzing exposure determinants at a fine resolution and regional scale. A multimedia exposure model was developed by INERIS to assess the transfer of substances from the environment to humans through inhalation and ingestion pathways. The RESPIR project adds a spatial dimension by linking GIS (Geographic Information System) to the model. Tools are developed using modeling, spatial analysis and geostatistic methods to build and discretize interesting variables and indicators from different supports and resolutions on a 1-km{sup 2} regular grid. We applied this model to the risk assessment of exposure to metals (cadmium, lead and nickel) using data from a region in France (Nord-Pas-de-Calais). The considered exposure pathways include the atmospheric contaminant inhalation and ingestion of soil, vegetation, meat, egg, milk, fish and drinking water. Exposure scenarios are defined for different reference groups (age, dietary properties, and the fraction of food produced locally). The two largest risks correspond to an ancient industrial site (Metaleurop) and the Lille agglomeration. In these areas, cadmium, vegetation ingestion and soil contamination are the principal determinants of the computed risk. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a multimedia exposure model for mapping environmental disparities. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We perform a risk assessment on a region of France at a fine scale for three metals. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We

  11. Evaluation and uncertainty analysis of regional-scale CLM4.5 net carbon flux estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Hanna; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun; Baatz, Roland; Montzka, Carsten; Schmidt, Marius; Vereecken, Harry

    2018-01-01

    Modeling net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at the regional scale with land surface models (LSMs) is relevant for the estimation of regional carbon balances, but studies on it are very limited. Furthermore, it is essential to better understand and quantify the uncertainty of LSMs in order to improve them. An important key variable in this respect is the prognostic leaf area index (LAI), which is very sensitive to forcing data and strongly affects the modeled NEE. We applied the Community Land Model (CLM4.5-BGC) to the Rur catchment in western Germany and compared estimated and default ecological key parameters for modeling carbon fluxes and LAI. The parameter estimates were previously estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach DREAM(zs) for four of the most widespread plant functional types in the catchment. It was found that the catchment-scale annual NEE was strongly positive with default parameter values but negative (and closer to observations) with the estimated values. Thus, the estimation of CLM parameters with local NEE observations can be highly relevant when determining regional carbon balances. To obtain a more comprehensive picture of model uncertainty, CLM ensembles were set up with perturbed meteorological input and uncertain initial states in addition to uncertain parameters. C3 grass and C3 crops were particularly sensitive to the perturbed meteorological input, which resulted in a strong increase in the standard deviation of the annual NEE sum (σ ∑ NEE) for the different ensemble members from ˜ 2 to 3 g C m-2 yr-1 (with uncertain parameters) to ˜ 45 g C m-2 yr-1 (C3 grass) and ˜ 75 g C m-2 yr-1 (C3 crops) with perturbed forcings. This increase in uncertainty is related to the impact of the meteorological forcings on leaf onset and senescence, and enhanced/reduced drought stress related to perturbation of precipitation. The NEE uncertainty for the forest plant functional type (PFT) was considerably lower (σ ∑ NEE ˜ 4.0-13.5 g C

  12. Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

    2013-12-01

    Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for

  13. Orographic precipitation at global and regional scales: Observational uncertainty and evaluation of 25-km global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiemann, Reinhard; Roberts, Charles J.; Bush, Stephanie; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

    2015-04-01

    Precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of the precipitation generating atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. Global general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally had very limited ability to capture this variability on the mesoscale (here ~50-500 km) due to their low resolution. This has changed with recent investments in resolution and ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations of atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with ~25 km grid spacing are becoming increasingly available. Here, we evaluate the mesoscale precipitation distribution in one such set of simulations obtained in the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) modelling campaign with the HadGEM-GA3 AGCM. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products such as those provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale features of the precipitation distribution but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of independent estimates, the intercomparison of different observational datasets may be the only way to get some insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. Here, we focus on mid-latitude continental regions where observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available in addition to the global data sets: Europe/the Alps, South and East Asia, and the continental US. The ability of GCMs to represent mesoscale variability is of interest in its own right, as climate information on this scale is required by impact studies. An additional motivation for the research proposed here arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean

  14. On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

    OpenAIRE

    D. C. Verdon-Kidd; A. S. Kiem

    2009-01-01

    In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a cl...

  15. Regional-scale geostatistical inverse modeling of North American CO2 fluxes: a synthetic data study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Michalak

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available A series of synthetic data experiments is performed to investigate the ability of a regional atmospheric inversion to estimate grid-scale CO2 fluxes during the growing season over North America. The inversions are performed within a geostatistical framework without the use of any prior flux estimates or auxiliary variables, in order to focus on the atmospheric constraint provided by the nine towers collecting continuous, calibrated CO2 measurements in 2004. Using synthetic measurements and their associated concentration footprints, flux and model-data mismatch covariance parameters are first optimized, and then fluxes and their uncertainties are estimated at three different temporal resolutions. These temporal resolutions, which include a four-day average, a four-day-average diurnal cycle with 3-hourly increments, and 3-hourly fluxes, are chosen to help assess the impact of temporal aggregation errors on the estimated fluxes and covariance parameters. Estimating fluxes at a temporal resolution that can adjust the diurnal variability is found to be critical both for recovering covariance parameters directly from the atmospheric data, and for inferring accurate ecoregion-scale fluxes. Accounting for both spatial and temporal a priori covariance in the flux distribution is also found to be necessary for recovering accurate a posteriori uncertainty bounds on the estimated fluxes. Overall, the results suggest that even a fairly sparse network of 9 towers collecting continuous CO2 measurements across the continent, used with no auxiliary information or prior estimates of the flux distribution in time or space, can be used to infer relatively accurate monthly ecoregion scale CO2 surface fluxes over North America within estimated uncertainty bounds. Simulated random transport error is shown to decrease the quality of flux estimates in under-constrained areas at the ecoregion scale, although the uncertainty bounds remain realistic. While these synthetic

  16. Survey on the construction of realization scenario of large-scale revegetation of arid regions; Daikibo ryokuka no jitsugenka scenario sakusei ni kansuru chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    In order to fix carbon dioxide as a measure to mitigate global warming, research of large-scale revegetation of arid regions has been conducted toward the ultimate goals of systematizing revegetation technologies centered on securing and using water resources, evaluating the feasibility of arid revegetation by extending the viewpoint to examine even rainfall increase by artificial means, and establishing a strategic program for large-scale revegetation. A trial revegetation feasibility map was made for a selected target region in Western Australia, and rough revegetation steps were formulated. Selection of proper region, introduction of technology, and planning were conducted by grasping environment of the target revegetation region. As a result, it was found that growth of plants is vigorous at the catchment areas due to the surface water transfer along the topography of surface in spite of poor rainfall. Obstruction of plant growth is partly caused by the corrosion of soil and accumulation of salt, but mainly caused by the shortage of water. Based on these data, ranking of proper regions was evaluated. When the technology is introduced in the region with A-rank, several times of water can be collected. 60 refs., 61 figs., 30 tabs.

  17. Soil organic matter dynamics and CO2 fluxes in relation to landscape scale processes: linking process understanding to regional scale carbon mass-balances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Oost, Kristof; Nadeu, Elisabet; Wiaux, François; Wang, Zhengang; Stevens, François; Vanclooster, Marnik; Tran, Anh; Bogaert, Patrick; Doetterl, Sebastian; Lambot, Sébastien; Van wesemael, Bas

    2014-05-01

    In this paper, we synthesize the main outcomes of a collaborative project (2009-2014) initiated at the UCL (Belgium). The main objective of the project was to increase our understanding of soil organic matter dynamics in complex landscapes and use this to improve predictions of regional scale soil carbon balances. In a first phase, the project characterized the emergent spatial variability in soil organic matter storage and key soil properties at the regional scale. Based on the integration of remote sensing, geomorphological and soil analysis techniques, we quantified the temporal and spatial variability of soil carbon stock and pool distribution at the local and regional scales. This work showed a linkage between lateral fluxes of C in relation with sediment transport and the spatial variation in carbon storage at multiple spatial scales. In a second phase, the project focused on characterizing key controlling factors and process interactions at the catena scale. In-situ experiments of soil CO2 respiration showed that the soil carbon response at the catena scale was spatially heterogeneous and was mainly controlled by the catenary variation of soil physical attributes (soil moisture, temperature, C quality). The hillslope scale characterization relied on advanced hydrogeophysical techniques such as GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar), EMI (Electromagnetic induction), ERT (Electrical Resistivity Tomography), and geophysical inversion and data mining tools. Finally, we report on the integration of these insights into a coupled and spatially explicit model and its application. Simulations showed that C stocks and redistribution of mass and energy fluxes are closely coupled, they induce structured spatial and temporal patterns with non negligible attached uncertainties. We discuss the main outcomes of these activities in relation to sink-source behavior and relevance of erosion processes for larger-scale C budgets.

  18. Susceptibility and triggering scenarios at a regional scale for shallow landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gullà, G.; Antronico, L.; Iaquinta, P.; Terranova, O.

    2008-07-01

    The work aims at identifying susceptible areas and pluviometric triggering scenarios at a regional scale in Calabria (Italy), with reference to shallow landsliding events. The proposed methodology follows a statistical approach and uses a database linked to a GIS that has been created to support the various steps of spatial data management and manipulation. The shallow landslide predisposing factors taken into account are derived from (i) the 40-m digital terrain model of the region, an ˜ 15,075 km 2 extension; (ii) outcropping lithology; (iii) soils; and (iv) land use. More precisely, a map of the slopes has been drawn from the digital terrain model. Two kinds of covers [prevalently coarse-grained (CG cover) or fine-grained (FG cover)] were identified, referring to the geotechnical characteristics of geomaterial covers and to the lithology map; soilscapes were drawn from soil maps; and finally, the land use map was employed without any prior processing. Subsequently, the inventory maps of some shallow landsliding events, totaling more than 30,000 instabilities of the past and detected by field surveys and photo aerial restitution, were employed to calibrate the relative importance of these predisposing factors. The use of single factors (first level analysis) therefore provides three different susceptibility maps. Second level analysis, however, enables better location of areas susceptible to shallow landsliding events by crossing the single susceptibility maps. On the basis of the susceptibility map obtained by the second level analysis, five different classes of susceptibility to shallow landsliding events have been outlined over the regional territory: 8.9% of the regional territory shows very high susceptibility, 14.3% high susceptibility, 15% moderate susceptibility, 3.6% low susceptibility, and finally, about 58% very low susceptibility. Finally, the maps of two significant shallow landsliding events of the past and their related rainfalls have been

  19. Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10 yr control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present time levels over Paris is modeled under the "business as usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic mitigation scenario leads to moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current, urban scale study, is driven by VOC-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer time-scale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under "business as usual" and "mitigation" scenarios respectively compared to present time period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large urban increment

  20. Changes in Hydrologic Conditions and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Circumpolar Regions due to Climate Change Induced Permafrost Retreat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whiticar, M. J. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria (Canada); Bhatti, J.; Startsev, N. [Northern Forestry Centre, St Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2013-07-15

    Thawing permafrost peatlands substantially influence Canadian northern ecosystems by changing the regional hydrology and mobilizing the vast carbon (C) reserves that results in increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions to the atmosphere. With permafrost distribution controlled largely by topography and climate, our International polar y ear (IPY) study intensively monitored the local C cycling processes and GHG fluxes associated with different hydrologic and permafrost environments at 4 sites along a climatic gradient extending from the Isolated patches permafrost Zone (northern alberta), to the continuous permafrost Zone (Inuvik, NWT). Each site encompasses a local gradient from upland forest and peat plateau to collapse scar. Our multi-year measurements of peatland profiles and flux chambers for CH{sub 4} and CO{sub 2} concentrations and stable isotope ratios indicate processes, including methanogenesis, methanotrophy, transport and emission that control the distribution of these GHGs. These relationships are modulated by fluctuating local soil water and corresponding ecosystem conditions. The gas geochemistry shows that significant surface CH{sub 4} production occurs by both hydrogenotrophic and acetoclastic methanogenesis in submerged, anaerobic peats, e.g., collapse scars, whereas methane oxidation is restricted to aerobic, drier environments, e.g., upland sites and peat-atmosphere interface. The most active methanogenesis and emissions are in areas of actively thawing permafrost contrasting with sites under continuous permafrost. This degree of methanogenesis is being amplified by the increased rate of Arctic warming and the rapid retreat of permafrost in canada's arctic (approximately. 2.5 km/a). (author)

  1. A major Early Miocene thermal pulse due to subduction segmentation and rollback in the western Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spakman, W.; Van Hinsbergen, D. J.; Vissers, R.

    2012-12-01

    Geological studies have shown that Eo-Oligocene subduction related high-pressure, low-temperature metasediments and peridotites of the Alboran region (Spain, Morocco) and the Kabylides (Algeria) experienced a major Early Miocene (~21 Ma) thermal pulse requiring asthenospheric temperatures at ~60 km depth. Despite earlier propositions, the cause of this thermal pulse is still controversial while also the paleogeographic origin of the Alboran and Kabylides units is debated. Here, we relate the thermal pulse to segmentation of the West Alpine-Tethyan slab under the SE Iberian margin (Baleares-Sardinia). We restore the Alboran rocks farther east than previously assumed, to close to the Balearic Islands, adjacent to Sardinia. We identify three major lithosphere faults, the NW-SE trending North Balearic Transform Zone (NBTZ) and the ~W-E trending Emile Baudot and North African transforms that accommodated the Miocene subduction evolution of slab segmentation, rollback, and migration of Alboran and Kabylides rocks to their current positions. The heat pulse occurred S-SE of the Baleares where slab segmentation along the NBTZ triggered radially outgrowing S-SW rollback opening a slab window that facilitated local ascent of asthenosphere below the rapidly extending Alboran-Kabylides accretionary prism. Subsequent slab rollback carried the Kabylides and Alboran domains to their present positions. Our new reconstruction is in line with tomographically imaged mantle structure and focuses attention on the crucial role of evolving subduction segmentation driving HT-metamorphism and subsequent extension, fragmentation, and dispersion of geological terrains.

  2. Structural evaluation of spent nuclear fuel storage facilities under aircraft crash impact (2). Horizontal impact test onto reduced scale metal cask due to aircraft engine missile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Namba, Kosuke; Shirai, Koji; Saegusa, Toshiari

    2009-01-01

    In this study, to confirm the sealing performance of a metal cask subjected to impact force due to possible commercial aircraft crash against a spent fuel storage facility, the horizontal impact test was carried out. In the test, an aircraft engine missile with a speed of 57.3 m/s attacked the reduced scale metal cask containing helium gas, which stands vertically. Then the leak rate and sliding displacement of the lid were measured. The leak rate increased rapidly and reached to 4.0 x 10 -6 Pa·m 3 /sec. After that, the leak rate decreased slowly and converged to 1.0x10 -6 Pa·m 3 /sec after 20 hours from the impact test. The leak rate of a full scale cask was evaluated using that of reduced scale cask obtained by the test. Then the leak rate of the full scale cask was 3.5x10 -5 Pa·m 3 /sec. This result showed that the sealing performance of the full scale metal cask would not be affected immediately by the horizontal impact of the aircraft engine with a speed of 57.3 m/s. (author)

  3. Variation of annual effective dose due to radon level in indoor air in Marwar region of Rajasthan, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rani, Asha, E-mail: ashasachdeva78@gmail.com [Department of Applied Science, Ferozepur College of Engineering and Technology, Farozshah, Ferozepur-142052, Punjab (India); Mittal, Sudhir, E-mail: sudhirmittal03@gmail.com [Department of Applied Sciences, Punjab Technical University, Jalandhar-144601, Punjab (India); Mehra, Rohit [Department of Physics, Dr. B.R.Ambedkar National Institute of Technology, Jalandhar-144011 (India)

    2015-08-28

    In the present work, indoor radon and thoron measurements have been carried out from different locations of Jodhpur and Nagaur districts of Northern Rajasthan, India using RAD7, a solid state alpha detector. The radon and thoron concentration in indoor air varies from 8.75 to 61.25 Bq m{sup −3} and 32.7 to 147.2 Bq m{sup −3} with the mean value of 32 and 73 Bq m{sup −3} respectively. The observed indoor radon concentration values are well below the action level recommended by International Commission on Radiological Protection (200-300 Bq m{sup −3}) and Environmental Protection Agency (148 Bq m{sup −3}). The survey reveals that the thoron concentration values in the indoor air are well within the International Commission on Radiological Protection (2005). The calculated total annual effective dose due to radon level in indoor air varies from 0.22 to 1.54 mSv y{sup −1} with the mean value of 0.81 mSv y{sup −1} which is less than even the lower limit of action level 3-10 mSv y{sup −1} recommended by International Commission on Radiological Protection (2005)

  4. Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Agriculture on a Regional Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka Wysocka-Czubaszek

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, agriculture has to meet the growing food demand together with high requirements of environmental protection, especially regarding the climate change. The greenhouse gas emissions differ not only on a global, but also on a regional scale, and mitigation strategies are effective when they are adapted properly. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to present the results of methane (CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O emissions inventory on a regional level in Poland in years 1999-2015. The CH4 and N2O emissions were calculated according to the methodology used by the National Centre for Emissions Management (NCEM for national inventory for United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol. The data were taken from Central Statistical Office of Poland. The CH4 emissions in all studied years varied strongly between voivodeships and ranged from 5.6-7.5 Gg y-1 in the Lubuskie Voivodeship to 84.8-104.3 Gg y-1 in the Mazowieckie Voivodeship. While in most voivodeships the CH4 emissions dropped down, in Podlaskie, Mazursko-Warmińskie, and Wielkopolskie voivodeships, the emissions of this gas increased significantly as a consequence of the development of dairy and meat production. In 1999, the highest N2O fluxes were calculated for the Wielkopolskie (5.7 Gg y-1, Mazowieckie (4.8 Gg y-1 Kujawsko-Pomorskie (3.5 Gg y-1 and Lubelskie (3.3 Gg y-1 voivodeships, while in 2015, the highest nitrous oxide emissions were calculated for the Wielkopolskie (7.3 Gg y-1, Mazowieckie (5.5 Gg y-1, Kujawsko-Pomorskie (4.1 Gg y-1 and Podlaskie (4.1 Gg y-1 voivodeships. In the studied period, the contribution of N2O emissions from crop production increased in almost all voivodeships except the Podlaskie, Lubuskie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie regions. The growth in emissions from mineral fertilization and crop residue incorporation, together with the increase of emission from the animal sector in some regions of Poland, resulted in the higher national

  5. The influence of climate variability on chemical composition of European wines: a regional scale study (Italy and Slovenia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbante, Carlo; Polo, Fabio; Cozzi, Giulio; Ogrinc, Nives; Turetta, Clara

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is having an increasing influence on vine phenology and grape composition, affecting vinifications, wine chemistry and the quality of productions. Wine grape cultivation provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Moreover, on a regional level and on a shorter time scale, the seasonal weather conditions modify the quality of yields determining the final properties of wine. In the present research, we studied wines from Italy and Slovenia with the purpose of differentiating them by the different vintages (from 2009 to 2012), which are supposed to be influenced by temperature and rain during each year's growing season. Specific chemical techniques were used, in particular mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and isotopic mass spectrometry (IRMS), both of which are usually employed to detect wine adulterations and to establish the geographical provenance of wines. In particular, we investigated the relationship between macro- and micro-elements, Rare Earth Elements and stable isotopes [δ13C, δ18O, (D/H)I, (D/H)II]. The datasets were examined via statistical techniques to show their relation to weather conditions as well as their mutual connection. Italian and Slovenian wines were distinguished, with the exception of few samples, by both TEs and REEs results. This separation, due to different elemental compositions, may be justified as being part of two distinct environmental and geographical belongings (terroir) but also to the processes of wine production, from the harvest to the bottling, which have certainly interfered and characterized the products. In the case of Italian wines the weather conditions were evidenced with an important separation of stable isotopes which they confirmed to be very sensitive Regarding Slovenian wines, the studied regions were characterized of

  6. Regional-scale geomechanical impact assessment of underground coal gasification by coupled 3D thermo-mechanical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Christopher; Kempka, Thomas; Kapusta, Krzysztof; Stańczyk, Krzysztof

    2016-04-01

    Underground coal gasification (UCG) has the potential to increase the world-wide coal reserves by utilization of coal deposits not mineable by conventional methods. The UCG process involves combusting coal in situ to produce a high-calorific synthesis gas, which can be applied for electricity generation or chemical feedstock production. Apart from its high economic potentials, UCG may induce site-specific environmental impacts such as fault reactivation, induced seismicity and ground subsidence, potentially inducing groundwater pollution. Changes overburden hydraulic conductivity resulting from thermo-mechanical effects may introduce migration pathways for UCG contaminants. Due to the financial efforts associated with UCG field trials, numerical modeling has been an important methodology to study coupled processes considering UCG performance. Almost all previous UCG studies applied 1D or 2D models for that purpose, that do not allow to predict the performance of a commercial-scale UCG operation. Considering our previous findings, demonstrating that far-field models can be run at a higher computational efficiency by using temperature-independent thermo-mechanical parameters, representative coupled simulations based on complex 3D regional-scale models were employed in the present study. For that purpose, a coupled thermo-mechanical 3D model has been developed to investigate the environmental impacts of UCG based on a regional-scale of the Polish Wieczorek mine located in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. The model size is 10 km × 10 km × 5 km with ten dipping lithological layers, a double fault and 25 UCG reactors. Six different numerical simulation scenarios were investigated, considering the transpressive stress regime present in that part of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. Our simulation results demonstrate that the minimum distance between the UCG reactors is about the six-fold of the coal seam thickness to avoid hydraulic communication between the single UCG

  7. Potential for shoreline changes due to sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Thieler, E. Robert

    2007-01-01

    Sea-level rise over the next century is expected to contribute significantly to physical changes along open-ocean shorelines. Predicting the form and magnitude of coastal changes is important for understanding the impacts to humans and the environment. Presently, the ability to predict coastal changes is limited by the scientific understanding of the many variables and processes involved in coastal change, and the lack of consensus regarding the validity of existing conceptual, analytical, or numerical models. In order to assess potential future coastal changes in the mid-Atlantic U.S. for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a workshop was convened by the U.S. Geological Survey. Assessments of future coastal change were made by a committee of coastal scientists with extensive professional experience in the mid-Atlantic region. Thirteen scientists convened for a two-day meeting to exchange information and develop a consensus opinion on potential future coastal changes for the mid-Atlantic coast in response to sea-level rise. Using criteria defined in past work, the mid-Atlantic coast was divided into four geomorphic compartments: spits, headlands, wave-dominated barriers, and mixed-energy barriers. A range of potential coastal responses was identified for each compartment based on four sea-level rise scenarios. The four scenarios were based on the assumptions that: a) the long-term sea-level rise rate observed over the 20th century would persist over the 21st century, b) the 20th century rate would increase by 2 mm/yr, c) the 20th century rate would increase by 7 mm/yr, or d) sea-level would rise by 2 m over the next few hundred years. Potential responses to these sea-level rise scenarios depend on the landforms that occur within a region and include increased likelihood for erosion and shoreline retreat for all coastal types, increased likelihood for erosion, overwash and inlet breaching for barrier islands, as well as the possibility of a threshold

  8. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This

  9. Spectral damping scaling factors for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaeian, Sanaz; Bozorgnia, Yousef; Idriss, I.M.; Campbell, Kenneth; Abrahamson, Norman; Silva, Walter

    2012-01-01

    Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for elastic response spectra, including the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models, are typically developed at a 5% viscous damping ratio. In reality, however, structural and non-structural systems can have damping ratios other than 5%, depending on various factors such as structural types, construction materials, level of ground motion excitations, among others. This report provides the findings of a comprehensive study to develop a new model for a Damping Scaling Factor (DSF) that can be used to adjust the 5% damped spectral ordinates predicted by a GMPE to spectral ordinates with damping ratios between 0.5 to 30%. Using the updated, 2011 version of the NGA database of ground motions recorded in worldwide shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions (i.e., the NGA-West2 database), dependencies of the DSF on variables including damping ratio, spectral period, moment magnitude, source-to-site distance, duration, and local site conditions are examined. The strong influence of duration is captured by inclusion of both magnitude and distance in the DSF model. Site conditions are found to have less significant influence on DSF and are not included in the model. The proposed model for DSF provides functional forms for the median value and the logarithmic standard deviation of DSF. This model is heteroscedastic, where the variance is a function of the damping ratio. Damping Scaling Factor models are developed for the “average” horizontal ground motion components, i.e., RotD50 and GMRotI50, as well as the vertical component of ground motion.

  10. Regional and urban down scaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meteorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed down scaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the no feedback simulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  11. Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scales are a visible peeling or flaking of outer skin layers. These layers are called the stratum ... Scales may be caused by dry skin, certain inflammatory skin conditions, or infections. Examples of disorders that ...

  12. Hydraulic properties and scale effects investigation in regional rock aquifers, south-western Quebec, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nastev, M.; Savard, M. M.; Lapcevic, P.; Lefebvre, R.; Martel, R.

    This paper reports on the characterization of hydraulic properties of regional rock aquifers carried out within a groundwater resources assessment project in the St. Lawrence Lowlands of south-western Quebec. To understand the aquifer behavior at both the fracture level and at field scale, hydraulic investigations were carried out using various aquifer tests. The groundwater flow at the local scale is controlled mostly by the fracture system. Results of the constant-head injection tests show a weak decreasing trend of hydraulic conductivity with depth indicating that a major part of the groundwater flow occurs in the first meters of the rock sequence. At the regional scale, the equivalent porous media approach is applicable. The hydraulic conductivity measurements were correlated to the scale of the aquifer tests expressed with the investigated aquifer volume. A simple interpolation procedure for the hydraulic conductivity field was developed based on the distance between field measurements and the tested aquifer volumes. The regional distribution of the hydraulic conductivity for the major fractured aquifer units indicates that dolostone is the most permeable whereas sandstone and crystalline rocks are the least permeable units. Este artículo trata de la caracterización de las propiedades hidráulicas en acuíferos regionales rocosos, la cual se llevó a cabo dentro del proyecto de evaluación de los recursos de agua subterránea en St. Lawrence Lowlands al suroeste de Quebec. Para entender el comportamiento del acuífero tanto a nivel de fractura como a escala del campo, se ejecutaron investigaciones hidráulicas usando varias pruebas de acuífero. El flujo del agua subterránea a escala local está controlado principalmente por el sistema de fracturas. Los resultados de las pruebas de inyección con cabeza constante muestran una tendencia decreciente débil de la conductividad hidráulica con la profundidad, indicando que la mayor parte del flujo de agua

  13. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

    2015-02-20

    Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

  14. Development of a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model to assess population exposure at a regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caudeville, Julien; Bonnard, Roseline; Boudet, Céline; Denys, Sébastien; Govaert, Gérard; Cicolella, André

    2012-08-15

    Analyzing the relationship between the environment and health has become a major focus of public health efforts in France, as evidenced by the national action plans for health and the environment. These plans have identified the following two priorities: - identify and manage geographic areas where hotspot exposures are a potential risk to human health; and - reduce exposure inequalities. The aim of this study is to develop a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model for detecting vulnerable populations and analyzing exposure determinants at a fine resolution and regional scale. A multimedia exposure model was developed by INERIS to assess the transfer of substances from the environment to humans through inhalation and ingestion pathways. The RESPIR project adds a spatial dimension by linking GIS (Geographic Information System) to the model. Tools are developed using modeling, spatial analysis and geostatistic methods to build and discretize interesting variables and indicators from different supports and resolutions on a 1-km(2) regular grid. We applied this model to the risk assessment of exposure to metals (cadmium, lead and nickel) using data from a region in France (Nord-Pas-de-Calais). The considered exposure pathways include the atmospheric contaminant inhalation and ingestion of soil, vegetation, meat, egg, milk, fish and drinking water. Exposure scenarios are defined for different reference groups (age, dietary properties, and the fraction of food produced locally). The two largest risks correspond to an ancient industrial site (Metaleurop) and the Lille agglomeration. In these areas, cadmium, vegetation ingestion and soil contamination are the principal determinants of the computed risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Stress Testing Water Resource Systems at Regional and National Scales with Synthetic Drought Event Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, J. W.; Mortazavi-Naeini, M.; Coxon, G.; Guillod, B. P.; Allen, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    Water resources systems can fail to deliver the services required by water users (and deprive the environment of flow requirements) in many different ways. In an attempt to make systems more resilient, they have also been made more complex, for example through a growing number of large-scale transfers, optimized storages and reuse plants. These systems may be vulnerable to complex variants of hydrological variability in space and time, and behavioural adaptations by water users. In previous research we have used non-parametric stochastic streamflow generators to test the vulnerability of water resource systems. Here we use a very large ensemble of regional climate model outputs from the weather@home crowd-sourced citizen science project, which has generated more than 30,000 years of synthetic weather for present and future climates in the UK and western Europe, using the HadAM3P regional climate model. These simulations have been constructed in order to preserve prolonged drought characteristics, through treatment of long-memory processes in ocean circulations and soil moisture. The weather simulations have been propagated through the newly developed DynaTOP national hydrological for Britain, in order to provide low flow simulations at points of water withdrawal for public water supply, energy and agricultural abstractors. We have used the WATHNET water resource simulation model, set up for the Thames Basin and for all of the large water resource zones in England, to simulate the frequency, severity and duration of water shortages in all of these synthetic weather conditions. In particular, we have sought to explore systemic vulnerabilities associated with inter-basin transfers and the trade-offs between different water users. This analytical capability is providing the basis for (i) implementation of the Duty of Resilience, which has been placed upon the water industry in the 2014 Water Act and (ii) testing reformed abstraction arrangements which the UK government

  16. Regional scale net radiation estimation by means of Landsat and TERRA/AQUA imagery and GIS modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristóbal, J.; Ninyerola, M.; Pons, X.; Llorens, P.; Poyatos, R.

    2009-04-01

    Net radiation (Rn) is one of the most important variables for the estimation of surface energy budget and is used for various applications including agricultural meteorology, climate monitoring and weather prediction. Moreover, net radiation is an essential input variable for potential as well as actual evapotranspiration modeling. Nowadays, radiometric measurements provided by Remote Sensing and GIS analysis are the technologies used to compute net radiation at regional scales in a feasible way. In this study we present a regional scale estimation of the daily Rn on clear days, (Catalonia, NE of the Iberian Peninsula), using a set of 22 Landsat images (17 Landsat-5 TM and 5 Landsat-7 ETM+) and 171 TERRA/AQUA images MODIS from 2000 to 2007 period. TERRA/AQUA MODIS images have been downloaded by means of the EOS Gateway. We have selected three different types of products which contain the remote sensing data we have used to model daily Rn: daily LST product, daily calibrated reflectances product and daily atmospheric water vapour product. Landsat-5 TM images have been corrected by means of conventional techniques based on first order polynomials taking into account the effect of land surface relief using a Digital Elevation Model, obtaining an RMS less than 30 m. Radiometric correction of Landsat non-thermal bands has been done following the methodology proposed by Pons and Solé (1994), which allows to reduce the number of undesired artifacts that are due to the effects of the atmosphere or to the differential illumination which is, in turn, due to the time of the day, the location in the Earth and the relief (zones being more illuminated than others, shadows, etc). Atmospheric correction of Landsat thermal band has been carried out by means of a single-channel algorithm improvement developed by Cristóbal et al. (2009) and the land surface emissivity computed by means of the methodology proposed by Sobrino and Raissouni (2000). Rn has been estimated through the

  17. ‘Slow’ Revitalization on Regional Scale, the Example of an Integrated Investment Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazur-Belzyt, Katarzyna

    2017-10-01

    The study arose from question about the future of towns, as well as the possibility of their development. The paper is an attempt to look at the direction in which many towns around the world aim, connecting to a networks, and especially the network of Cittaslow. The author asked a few questions - whether the Cittaslow network actually helps towns to use their inner potential, build their brand and improve the quality of residents’ lifes? The starting point for the case study method adopted in the paper is a discussion of examples of urban networks as a background for a wider Cittaslow characteristic. For this purpose, there was conducted literature and in situ research on the Cittaslow towns, the query of documents related to Polish Cittaslow, own photographic documentation was collected and a series of talks were carried out in different offices and municipalities. The database constructed in this way, allowed the analysis and conclusions. An important part of the research was the synthesis of information on the integrated project which has been taken in 14 Polish Slow Cities. “The Cross-Local Programme of Revitalization of Cittaslow Town Network in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship” is a unique action on the scale of the entire international Cittaslow network. Each of the participating towns tried to exploit through revitalization its own unique potential for real growth and improve the quality of life of its residents. Through the joint action, even the smallest town could more easily obtain significant funding. The involvement of regional government and understanding of the idea was also crucial. Cittaslow network, although not perfect, may in the long term strengthen linkages and exchange of experience between the slow towns and not lead to their unification. Furthermore, as shown by the example of Polish “The Cross-Local Programme of Revitalization of Cittaslow Town Network in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship”, belonging to the Cittaslow network

  18. Impacts of crop growth dynamics on soil quality at the regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2014-05-01

    Agricultural land use and in particular crop growth dynamics can greatly affect soil quality. Both the amount of soil lost from erosion by water and soil organic matter are key indicators for soil quality. The aim was to develop a modelling framework for quantifying the impacts of crop growth dynamics on soil quality at the regional scale with test case Flanders. A framework for modelling the impacts of crop growth on soil erosion and soil organic matter was developed by coupling the dynamic crop cover model REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) to the PESERA soil erosion model (Kirkby et al., 2009) and to the RothC carbon model (Coleman and Jenkinson, 1999). All three models are process-based, spatially distributed and intended as a regional diagnostic tool. A geo-database was constructed covering 10 years of crop rotation in Flanders using the IACS parcel registration (Integrated Administration and Control System). Crop allometric models were developed from variety trials to calculate crop residues for common crops in Flanders and subsequently derive stable organic matter fluxes to the soil. Results indicate that crop growth dynamics and crop rotations influence soil quality for a very large percentage. soil erosion mainly occurs in the southern part of Flanders, where silty to loamy soils and a hilly topography are responsible for soil loss rates of up to 40 t/ha. Parcels under maize, sugar beet and potatoes are most vulnerable to soil erosion. Crop residues of grain maize and winter wheat followed by catch crops contribute most to the total carbon sequestered in agricultural soils. For the same rotations carbon sequestration is highest on clay soils and lowest on sandy soils. This implies that agricultural policies that impact on agricultural land management influence soil quality for a large percentage. The coupled REGCROP-PESERA-ROTHC model allows for quantifying the impact of seasonal and year-to-year crop growth dynamics on soil quality. When coupled to a multi-annual crop

  19. Air quality in the mid-21. century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km x 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km x 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the 'business-as-usual' scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic 'mitigation' scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions

  20. Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-07-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the "business-as-usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic "mitigation" scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional-scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the

  1. A Physically-based Model For Rainfall-triggered Landslides At A Regional Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teles, V.; Capolongo, D.; Bras, R. L.

    Rainfall has long been recognized as a major cause of landslides. Historical records have shown that large rainfall can generate hundreds of landslides over hundreds of square kilometers. Although a great body of work has documented the morphology and mechanics of individual slope failure, few studies have considered the process at basin and regional scale. A landslide model is integrated in the landscape evolution model CHILD and simulates rainfall-triggered events based on a geotechnical index, the factor of safety, which takes into account the slope, the soil effective cohesion and weight, the friction angle, the regolith thickness and the saturated thickness. The stat- urated thickness is represented by the wetness index developed in the TOPMODEL. The topography is represented by a Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN). The factor of safety is computed at each node of the TIN. If the factor of safety is lower than 1, a landslide is intiated at this node. The regolith is then moved downstream. We applied the model to the Fortore basin whose valley cuts the flysch terrain that constitute the framework of the so called "sub-Apennines" chain that is the most eastern part of the Southern Apennines (Italy). We will discuss its value according to its sensitivity to the used parameters and compare it to the actual data available for this basin.

  2. Integrating statistical and process-based models to produce probabilistic landslide hazard at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.

    2017-12-01

    We develop a landslide hazard modeling approach that integrates a data-driven statistical model and a probabilistic process-based shallow landslide model for mapping probability of landslide initiation, transport, and deposition at regional scales. The empirical model integrates the influence of seven site attribute (SA) classes: elevation, slope, curvature, aspect, land use-land cover, lithology, and topographic wetness index, on over 1,600 observed landslides using a frequency ratio (FR) approach. A susceptibility index is calculated by adding FRs for each SA on a grid-cell basis. Using landslide observations we relate susceptibility index to an empirically-derived probability of landslide impact. This probability is combined with results from a physically-based model to produce an integrated probabilistic map. Slope was key in landslide initiation while deposition was linked to lithology and elevation. Vegetation transition from forest to alpine vegetation and barren land cover with lower root cohesion leads to higher frequency of initiation. Aspect effects are likely linked to differences in root cohesion and moisture controlled by solar insulation and snow. We demonstrate the model in the North Cascades of Washington, USA and identify locations of high and low probability of landslide impacts that can be used by land managers in their design, planning, and maintenance.

  3. Building energy retrofit index for policy making and decision support at regional and national scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khayatian, Fazel; Sarto, Luca; Dall'O', Giuliano

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Machine learning is used for pre-processing, fine-tuning and post-processing data. •A new indicator is introduced to support building energy retrofit policies. •The presented indicator is evaluated by a case study of 4767 buildings. •Current energy indicators can misrepresent the building energy retrofit potential. -- Abstract: The vast data collected since the enforcement of building energy labelling in Italy has provided valuable information that is useful for planning the future of building energy efficiency. However, the indicators provided through energy certificates are not suitable to support decisions, which target building energy retrofit in a regional scale. Considering the bias of the energy performance index toward a building’s shape, decisions based on this index will favor buildings with a specific geometric characteristics. This study tends to overcome this issue by introducing a new indicator, tailored to rank buildings based on retrofitable characteristics. The proposed framework is validated by a case study, in which a large dataset of office buildings are assigned with the new index. Results indicate that the proposed indicator succeeds to extract a single index, which is representative of all building characteristics subject to energy retrofit. A new labeling procedure is also compared with the conventional classification of buildings. It is observed that the proposed labels properly partitions the dataset, according to buildings’ potential to undergo energy retrofit.

  4. Moving Forward on Remote Sensing of Soil Salinity at Regional Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elia Scudiero

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Soil salinity undermines global agriculture by reducing crop yield and impairing soil quality. Irrigation management can help control salinity levels within the soil root-zone. To best manage water and soil resources, accurate regional-scale inventories of soil salinity are needed. The past decade has seen several successful applications of soil salinity remote sensing. Two salinity remote sensing approaches exist: direct assessment based on analysis of surface soil reflectance (the most popular approach, and indirect assessment of root-zone (e.g., 0-1 m soil salinity based on analysis of crop canopy reflectance. In this perspective paper, we call on researchers and funding agencies to pay greater attention to the indirect approach because it is better suited for surveying agriculturally important lands. A joint effort between agricultural producers, irrigation specialists, environmental scientists, and policy makers is needed to better manage saline agricultural soils, especially because of projected future water scarcity in arid and semi-arid irrigated areas. The remote sensing community should focus on providing the best tools for mapping and monitoring salinity in such areas, which are of vital relevance to global food production.

  5. Contribution of regional-scale fire events to ozone and PM2.5 ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Two specific fires from 2011 are tracked for local to regional scale contribution to ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) using a freely available regulatory modeling system that includes the BlueSky wildland fire emissions tool, Spare Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model, Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical grid model. The modeling system was applied to track the contribution from a wildfire (Wallow) and prescribed fire (Flint Hills) using both source sensitivity and source apportionment approaches. The model estimated fire contribution to primary and secondary pollutants are comparable using source sensitivity (brute-force zero out) and source apportionment (Integrated Source Apportionment Method) approaches. Model estimated O3 enhancement relative to CO is similar to values reported in literature indicating the modeling system captures the range of O3 inhibition possible near fires and O3 production both near the fire and downwind. O3 and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) are formed in the fire plume and transported downwind along with highly reactive VOC species such as formaldehyde and acetaldehyde that are both emitted by the fire and rapidly produced in the fire plume by VOC oxidation reactions. PAN and aldehydes contribute to continued downwind O3 production. The transport and thermal decomposition of PAN to nitrogen oxides (NOX) enables O3 production in areas

  6. A review of operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kukkonen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed in this article include how weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry models are integrated into chemical weather forecasting systems, how physical processes are incorporated into the models through parameterization schemes, how the model architecture affects the predicted variables, and how air chemistry and aerosol processes are formulated. In addition, we discuss sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the models, user operational requirements, such as model availability and documentation, and output availability and dissemination. In this manner, this article allows for the evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various modelling systems and modelling approaches. Finally, this article highlights the most prominent gaps of knowledge for chemical weather forecasting models and suggests potential priorities for future research directions, for the following selected focus areas: emission inventories, the integration of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport models, boundary conditions and nesting of models, data assimilation of the various chemical species, improved understanding and parameterization of physical processes, better evaluation of models against data and the construction of model ensembles.

  7. Observation of ion confining potential enhancement due to thermal barrier potential formation and its scaling law in the tandem mirror GAMMA 10

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Teruji; Nakashima, Yousuke; Foote, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    In the tandem mirror GAMMA 10, (i) the enhancement of the ion confining potential, φ c , only during the period of the thermal barrier potential φ b -formation, has been observed first by using not only end-loss-analysers (ELA's) of GAMMA 10 but an end-loss-ion-spectrometer (ELIS) installed from TMX-U. This results in strong end-loss-ion plugging with increased central cell density. (ii) The first experimental observation of the φ c vs φ b -scaling law is obtained, where φ c increases with φ b . This scaling law is consistently interpreted by Cohen's theories of the weak-ECH and the strong-ECH in the plug region. (iii) Good agreement of the plug potential measured with the ELA's and the ELIS is achieved. (author)

  8. Bell palsy in lyme disease-endemic regions of canada: a cautionary case of occult bilateral peripheral facial nerve palsy due to Lyme disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Karen; Melanson, Michel; Desai, Jamsheed A

    2012-09-01

    Lyme disease caused by the spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi is a multisystem disorder characterized by three clinical stages: dermatologic, neurologic, and rheumatologic. The number of known Lyme disease-endemic areas in Canada is increasing as the range of the vector Ixodes scapularis expands into the eastern and central provinces. Southern Ontario, Nova Scotia, southern Manitoba, New Brunswick, and southern Quebec are now considered Lyme disease-endemic regions in Canada. The use of field surveillance to map risk and endemic regions suggests that these geographic areas are growing, in part due to the effects of climate warming. Peripheral facial nerve palsy is the most common neurologic abnormality in the second stage of Lyme borreliosis, with up to 25% of Bell palsy (idiopathic peripheral facial nerve palsy) occurring due to Lyme disease. Here we present a case of occult bilateral facial nerve palsy due to Lyme disease initially diagnosed as Bell palsy. In Lyme disease-endemic regions of Canada, patients presenting with unilateral or bilateral peripheral facial nerve palsy should be evaluated for Lyme disease with serologic testing to avoid misdiagnosis. Serologic testing should not delay initiation of appropriate treatment for presumed Bell palsy.

  9. Tuberculosis due to Mycobacterium bovis in humans in the south-west region of Ireland: is there a relationship with infection prevalence in cattle?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cotter, T P

    2012-02-03

    OBJECTIVE: To compare the incidence of tuberculosis due to Mycobacterium bovis in humans to the prevalence of M. bovis infection in cattle in south-west Ireland and discuss possible links between them. SETTING: In the south-west region of Ireland, a mixed urban and rural community (pop. 536,000), there is a residuum of human tuberculosis caused by M. bovis. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the incidence of culture-positive M. bovis disease in humans in south-west Ireland from 1983 to 1994 and of the results of tuberculin testing in cattle from 1978 to 1994 for the same region. RESULTS: One to five cases of human tuberculosis due to M. bovis were recorded per year while the overall prevalence of bovine infection fell gradually during the period of study from 467 tuberculin-positive animals per 100,000 cattle tested in 1983 to 158 per 100,000 in 1994. CONCLUSION: The low incidence plateau of human tuberculosis due to M. bovis together with the decline in prevalence of animal infection in the overall period studied suggest a cut-off in the animal to human chain of infection at two points; the animal source and the ingestion of (now pasteurized) milk. This would suggest that disease in humans is now due to reactivation of previous foci of infection which were acquired when milk pasteurization was not compulsory. Based on this, we would anticipate a further reduction and possible elimination of human tuberculosis due to M. bovis in this region in the next 10-15 years.

  10. Rapid identification of soil cadmium pollution risk at regional scale based on visible and near-infrared spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Tao; Chang, Qingrui; Clevers, J.G.P.W.; Kooistra, L.

    2015-01-01

    Soil heavy metal pollution due to long-term sewage irrigation is a serious environmental problem in many irrigation areas in northern China. Quickly identifying its pollution status is an important basis for remediation. Visible-near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (VNIRS) provides a useful tool. In a case study, 76 soil samples were collected and their reflectance spectra were used to estimate cadmium (Cd) concentration by partial least squares regression (PLSR) and back propagation neural network (BPNN). To reduce noise, six pre-treatments were compared, in which orthogonal signal correction (OSC) was first used in soil Cd estimation. Spectral analysis and geostatistics were combined to identify Cd pollution hotspots. Results showed that Cd was accumulated in topsoil at the study area. OSC can effectively remove irrelevant information to improve prediction accuracy. More accurate estimation was achieved by applying a BPNN. Soil Cd pollution hotspots could be identified by interpolating the predicted values obtained from spectral estimates. - Highlights: • Soil reflectance spectroscopy provides a promising tool for detecting soil contaminants. • Orthogonal signal correction efficiently extracted information from noisy spectra. • Back propagation neural network achieved a more accurate estimation for soil Cd. • Soil Cd pollution hotspots could be identified by interpolating the predicted Cd. - Combining spectral analysis and geostatistics can provide a rapid method for identifying the pollution hotspot of soil heavy metal at regional scale.

  11. Methane eddy covariance flux measurements from a low flying aircraft: Bridging the scale gap between local and regional emissions estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayres, D. S.; Dobosy, R.; Dumas, E. J.; Kochendorfer, J.; Wilkerson, J.; Anderson, J. G.

    2017-12-01

    The Arctic contains a large reservoir of organic matter stored in permafrost and clathrates. Varying geology and hydrology across the Arctic, even on small scales, can cause large variability in surface carbon fluxes and partitioning between methane and carbon dioxide. This makes upscaling from point source measurements such as small flux towers or chambers difficult. Ground based measurements can yield high temporal resolution and detailed information about a specific location, but due to the inaccessibility of most of the Arctic to date have only made measurements at very few sites. In August 2013, a small aircraft, flying low over the surface (5-30 m), and carrying an air turbulence probe and spectroscopic instruments to measure methane, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, water vapor and their isotopologues, flew over the North Slope of Alaska. During the six flights multiple comparisons were made with a ground based Eddy Covariance tower as well as three region surveys flights of fluxes over three areas each approximately 2500 km2. We present analysis using the Flux Fragment Method and surface landscape classification maps to relate the fluxes to different surface land types. We show examples of how we use the aircraft data to upscale from a eddy covariance tower and map spatial variability across different ecotopes.

  12. Spatial patterns of diversity at local and regional scales in a tropical lagoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Adán Caballero-Vázquez

    Full Text Available The present study reports estimates of alpha (α, beta (β and gamma (Γ diversity for the fish community of Chacmochuch Lagoon (SE Mexico, a natural protected area located in the northern portion of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System. Fish specimens were sampled in 2004 and 2006. Field work was carried out at three climatic peaks: at 13 stations using a 70 m-long beach seine. The collected data were supplemented with information obtained from a previous work conducted in 2002 and were then analyzed with multivariate statistical methods. In addition, fish composition results from this study were compared to those reported for other similar ecosystems of the region. A total of 68 fish species were recorded, determined as peripheral (high-salinity species, usually marine affinity most of them. Most of the fish species collected were determined as rare, and a few number of species were determined as common and dominant. Salinity, TSD, temperature, dissolved oxygen and other variables were measured to determine the influence over the fish communities, four groups of sites where determined. Results indicated a gradual decrease in the degree of species replacement towards the interior of the system (away from the coast. The estimated value of gamma diversity was high compared to that reported for other coastal systems of the region and, due to the high degree of habitat heterogeneity found in this system; beta diversity had a greater contribution to gamma diversity than alpha diversity. This lagoon acts as a nursing area for many of the fish species collected in this study as indicated by the presence of juvenile stages.

  13. Simulating Complex, Cold-region Process Interactions Using a Multi-scale, Variable-complexity Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate management of water resources is necessary for social, economic, and environmental sustainability worldwide. In locations with seasonal snowcovers, the accurate prediction of these water resources is further complicated due to frozen soils, solid-phase precipitation, blowing snow transport, and snowcover-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Complex process interactions and feedbacks are a key feature of hydrological systems and may result in emergent phenomena, i.e., the arising of novel and unexpected properties within a complex system. One example is the feedback associated with blowing snow redistribution, which can lead to drifts that cause locally-increased soil moisture, thus increasing plant growth that in turn subsequently impacts snow redistribution, creating larger drifts. Attempting to simulate these emergent behaviours is a significant challenge, however, and there is concern that process conceptualizations within current models are too incomplete to represent the needed interactions. An improved understanding of the role of emergence in hydrological systems often requires high resolution distributed numerical hydrological models that incorporate the relevant process dynamics. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) provides a novel tool for examining cold region hydrological systems. Key features include efficient terrain representation, allowing simulations at various spatial scales, reduced computational overhead, and a modular process representation allowing for an alternative-hypothesis framework. Using both physics-based and conceptual process representations sourced from long term process studies and the current cold regions literature allows for comparison of process representations and importantly, their ability to produce emergent behaviours. Examining the system in a holistic, process-based manner can hopefully derive important insights and aid in development of improved process representations.

  14. NOAA's Regional Climate Services Program: Building Relationships with Partners and Customers to Deliver Trusted Climate Information at Usable Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mecray, E. L.; Dissen, J.

    2016-12-01

    Federal agencies across multiple sectors from transportation to health, emergency management and agriculture, are now requiring their key stakeholders to identify and plan for climate-related impacts. Responding to the drumbeat for climate services at the regional and local scale, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) formed its Regional Climate Services (RCS) program to include Regional Climate Services Directors (RCSD), Regional Climate Centers, and state climatologists in a partnership. Since 2010, the RCS program has engaged customers across the country and amongst many of the nation's key economic sectors to compile information requirements, deliver climate-related products and services, and build partnerships among federal agencies and their regional climate entities. The talk will include a sketch from the Eastern Region that may shed light on the interaction of the multiple entities working at the regional scale. Additionally, we will show examples of our interagency work with the Department of Interior, the Department of Agriculture, and others in NOAA to deliver usable and trusted climate information and resources. These include webinars, print material, and face-to-face customer engagements to gather and respond to information requirements. NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information's RCSDs work on-the-ground to learn from customers about their information needs and their use of existing tools and resources. As regional leads, the RCSDs work within NOAA and with our regional partners to ensure the customer receives a broad picture of the tools and information from across the nation.

  15. Cross-scale analysis of the region effect on vascular plant species diversity in southern and northern European mountain ranges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Lenoir

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The divergent glacial histories of southern and northern Europe affect present-day species diversity at coarse-grained scales in these two regions, but do these effects also penetrate to the more fine-grained scales of local communities? METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We carried out a cross-scale analysis to address this question for vascular plants in two mountain regions, the Alps in southern Europe and the Scandes in northern Europe, using environmentally paired vegetation plots in the two regions (n = 403 in each region to quantify four diversity components: (i total number of species occurring in a region (total γ-diversity, (ii number of species that could occur in a target plot after environmental filtering (habitat-specific γ-diversity, (iii pair-wise species compositional turnover between plots (plot-to-plot β-diversity and (iv number of species present per plot (plot α-diversity. We found strong region effects on total γ-diversity, habitat-specific γ-diversity and plot-to-plot β-diversity, with a greater diversity in the Alps even towards distances smaller than 50 m between plots. In contrast, there was a slightly greater plot α-diversity in the Scandes, but with a tendency towards contrasting region effects on high and low soil-acidity plots. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that there are strong regional differences between coarse-grained (landscape- to regional-scale diversity components of the flora in the Alps and the Scandes mountain ranges, but that these differences do not necessarily penetrate to the finest-grained (plot-scale diversity component, at least not on acidic soils. Our findings are consistent with the contrasting regional Quaternary histories, but we also consider alternative explanatory models. Notably, ecological sorting and habitat connectivity may play a role in the unexpected limited or reversed region effect on plot α-diversity, and may also affect the larger-scale diversity

  16. Full-scale experimental and numerical study about structural behaviour of a thin-walled cold-formed steel building affected by ground settlements due to land subsidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Ortiz

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Land subsidence due to ground water withdrawal is a problem in many places around the world (Poland, 1984. This causes differential ground settlements that affect masonry structures, because these structural materials do not exhibit an adequate performance beyond a certain level of angular distortion. This work presents the experimental and numerical results about a study regarding the performance of a full-scale thin-walled cold-formed steel building affected by ground differential settlements due to land subsidence. The experimental stage consisted in the construction of a test-building to be subjected to differential settlements in laboratory. The numerical stage consisted in performing a numerical non-linear static pull-down analysis simulating the differential ground settlements of the test-building. The results show that the structural performance of the tested building was very suitable in terms of ductility.

  17. Soil characterization and vulnerability indices of the Autonomous region of Madrid. Scale 1:200.000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmid, T.; Millan, R.; Lago, C; Trueba, C.

    2000-01-01

    Radioactive contamination of the soil due to a nuclear accident is a risk for the population. A research project, within the program of Radiological Protection by Intervention in CIEMAT, has been developed to study the behaviour of radionuclides in soils. An evaluation of the radiological vulnerability considering the external irradiation and the food chain pathway for caesium and strontium has been determined using partial and global indices, which indicate the potential transfer of the radionuclides via the two mentioned pathways. A detailed study of the soils found in the Autonomous Region of Madrid was carried out with data from individual soil profiles and combining data obtained from maps with a Geographic Information System in order to obtain a spatial distribution of the results. The soil vulnerability for the external irradiation pathway of caesium and strontium is in general found to be higher in more developed soils located in the south and leading to the foothills of the Sierra of Madrid in the north. The vulnerability for the food chain pathway is found to be higher in the less developed soils in acid conditions situated in the Sierra of Madrid. (Author) 11 refs

  18. Relationship between Eurasian large-scale patterns and regional climate variability over the Black and Baltic Seas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stankunavicius, G.; Pupienis, D. [Vilnius Univ. (Lithuania). Dept. of Hydrology and Climatology; Basharin, D. [National Academy of Science of Ukraine, Sevastopol (Ukraine). Sevastopol Marine Hydrophysical Inst.

    2012-11-01

    Using a NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset and the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis approach we studied interannual to decadal variabilities of the sea-level air pressure (SLP) and the surface air temperature (SAT) fields over Eurasia during the 2nd part of the 20th century. Our results agree with those of the previous studies, which conclude that Eurasian trends are the result of storm-path changes driven by the interdecadal behaviour of the NAO-like meridional dipole pattern in the Atlantic. On interannual and decadal time scales, significant synchronous correlations between correspondent modes of SAT and SLP EOF patterns were found. This fact suggests that there is a strong and stable Eurasian interrelationship between SAT and SLP large-scale fields which affects the local climate of two sub-regions: the Black and Baltic Seas. The climate variability in these sub-regions was studied in terms of Eurasian large-scale surface-temperature and air-pressure patterns responses. We concluded that the sub-regional climate variability substantially differs over the Black and Baltic Seas, and depends on different Eurasian large-scale patterns. We showed that the Baltic Sea region is influenced by the patterns arising primary from NAO-like meridional dipole, as well as Scandinavian patterns, while the Black Sea's SAT/SLP variability is influenced mainly by the second mode EOF (eastern Atlantic) and large scale tropospheric wave structures. (orig.)

  19. Birth, growth and progresses through the last twelve years of a regional scale landslide warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanti, Riccardo; Segoni, Samuele; Rosi, Ascanio; Lagomarsino, Daniela; Catani, Filippo

    2017-04-01

    recordings and landslides occurred) and to use them to define more robust relationships between rainfalls and landslide triggering, with the final aim to increase the forecasting effectiveness of the warning system. The updated rainfall and landslide database were used to periodically perform a quantitative validation and to analyze the errors affecting the system forecasts. The errors characterization was used to implement a continuous process of updating and modification of SIGMA, that included: - Main model upgrades (generalization from a pilot test site to the whole Emilia Romagna region; calibration against well documented landslide events to define specific σ levels for each territorial units; definition of different alert levels according to the number of expected - Ordinary updates (periodically, the new landslide and rainfall data were used to re-calibrate the thresholds, taking into account a more robust sample). - Model tuning (set up of the optimal version of the decisional algorithm, including different definitions of "long" and "short" periods; selection of the optimal reference rain gauge for each Territorial Unit; modification of the boundaries of some territorial - Additional features (definition of a module that takes into account the effect of snow melt and snow accumulation; coupling with a landslide susceptibility model to improve the spatial accuracy of the model). - Various performance tests (including the comparison with alternate versions of SIGMA or with thresholds based on rainfall intensity and duration). This process has led to an evolution of the warning system and to a documented improvement of its forecasting effectiveness. Landslide forecasting at regional scale is a very complex task, but as time passes by and with the systematic gathering of new substantial data and the continuous progresses of research, uncertainties can be progressively reduced and a warning system can be set that increases its performances and reliability with time.

  20. Hybrid inversions of CO2 fluxes at regional scale applied to network design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kountouris, Panagiotis; Gerbig, Christoph; -Thomas Koch, Frank

    2013-04-01

    Long term observations of atmospheric greenhouse gas measuring stations, located at representative regions over the continent, improve our understanding of greenhouse gas sources and sinks. These mixing ratio measurements can be linked to surface fluxes by atmospheric transport inversions. Within the upcoming years new stations are to be deployed, which requires decision making tools with respect to the location and the density of the network. We are developing a method to assess potential greenhouse gas observing networks in terms of their ability to recover specific target quantities. As target quantities we use CO2 fluxes aggregated to specific spatial and temporal scales. We introduce a high resolution inverse modeling framework, which attempts to combine advantages from pixel based inversions with those of a carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS). The hybrid inversion system consists of the Lagrangian transport model STILT, the diagnostic biosphere model VPRM and a Bayesian inversion scheme. We aim to retrieve the spatiotemporal distribution of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at a high spatial resolution (10 km x 10 km) by inverting for spatially and temporally varying scaling factors for gross ecosystem exchange (GEE) and respiration (R) rather than solving for the fluxes themselves. Thus the state space includes parameters for controlling photosynthesis and respiration, but unlike in a CCDAS it allows for spatial and temporal variations, which can be expressed as NEE(x,y,t) = λG(x,y,t) GEE(x,y,t) + λR(x,y,t) R(x,y,t) . We apply spatially and temporally correlated uncertainties by using error covariance matrices with non-zero off-diagonal elements. Synthetic experiments will test our system and select the optimal a priori error covariance by using different spatial and temporal correlation lengths on the error statistics of the a priori covariance and comparing the optimized fluxes against the 'known truth'. As 'known truth' we use independent fluxes

  1. Comparison of the Scaling Properties of EUV Intensity Fluctuations in Coronal Holes to those in Regions of Quiet Sun

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadavid, Ana Cristina; Lawrence, John K.; Jennings, Peter John

    2017-08-01

    We investigate the scaling properties of EUV intensity fluctuations seen in low-latitude coronal holes (CH) and in regions of Quiet Sun (QS), in signals obtained with the SDO/AIA instrument in the 193 Å waveband. Contemporaneous time series in the 171 and 211 Å wavebands are used for comparison among emissions at different heights in the transition region and low corona. Potential-field extrapolations of contemporaneous SDO/HMI line-of-sight magnetic fields provide a context in the physical environment. Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) shows that the variance of the fluctuations obeys a power-law as a function of temporal scales with periods in the range ~15-60 min. This scaling is characterized by a generalized Hurst exponent α. In QS regions, and in regions within CHs that include magnetic bipoles, the scaling exponent lies in the range 1.0 anti-correlated, turbulent-like, dynamical processes. Regions inside the coronal holes primarily associated with magnetic field of a dominant single polarity, have a generalized exponent (0.5 correlated (“persistent”) processes. The results indicate the influence of the magnetic fields on the dynamics of the emission.

  2. Understanding Large-scale Structure in the SSA22 Protocluster Region Using Cosmological Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topping, Michael W.; Shapley, Alice E.; Steidel, Charles C.; Naoz, Smadar; Primack, Joel R.

    2018-01-01

    We investigate the nature and evolution of large-scale structure within the SSA22 protocluster region at z = 3.09 using cosmological simulations. A redshift histogram constructed from current spectroscopic observations of the SSA22 protocluster reveals two separate peaks at z = 3.065 (blue) and z = 3.095 (red). Based on these data, we report updated overdensity and mass calculations for the SSA22 protocluster. We find {δ }b,{gal}=4.8+/- 1.8 and {δ }r,{gal}=9.5+/- 2.0 for the blue and red peaks, respectively, and {δ }t,{gal}=7.6+/- 1.4 for the entire region. These overdensities correspond to masses of {M}b=(0.76+/- 0.17)× {10}15{h}-1 {M}ȯ , {M}r=(2.15+/- 0.32)× {10}15{h}-1 {M}ȯ , and {M}t=(3.19+/- 0.40)× {10}15{h}-1 {M}ȯ for the red, blue, and total peaks, respectively. We use the Small MultiDark Planck (SMDPL) simulation to identify comparably massive z∼ 3 protoclusters, and uncover the underlying structure and ultimate fate of the SSA22 protocluster. For this analysis, we construct mock redshift histograms for each simulated z∼ 3 protocluster, quantitatively comparing them with the observed SSA22 data. We find that the observed double-peaked structure in the SSA22 redshift histogram corresponds not to a single coalescing cluster, but rather the proximity of a ∼ {10}15{h}-1 {M}ȯ protocluster and at least one > {10}14{h}-1 {M}ȯ cluster progenitor. Such associations in the SMDPL simulation are easily understood within the framework of hierarchical clustering of dark matter halos. We finally find that the opportunity to observe such a phenomenon is incredibly rare, with an occurrence rate of 7.4{h}3 {{{Gpc}}}-3. Based on data obtained at the W.M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and was made possible by the generous financial support of the W.M. Keck Foundation.

  3. Validation and evaluation of epistemic uncertainty in rainfall thresholds for regional scale landslide forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Iovine, Giulio; Melillo, Massimo; Peruccacci, Silvia; Terranova, Oreste Giuseppe; Vennari, Carmela; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2015-04-01

    Prediction of rainfall-induced landslides can rely on empirical rainfall thresholds. These are obtained from the analysis of past rainfall events that have (or have not) resulted in slope failures. Accurate prediction requires reliable thresholds, which need to be validated before their use in operational landslide warning systems. Despite the clear relevance of validation, only a few studies have addressed the problem, and have proposed and tested robust validation procedures. We propose a validation procedure that allows for the definition of optimal thresholds for early warning purposes. The validation is based on contingency table, skill scores, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. To establish the optimal threshold, which maximizes the correct landslide predictions and minimizes the incorrect predictions, we propose an index that results from the linear combination of three weighted skill scores. Selection of the optimal threshold depends on the scope and the operational characteristics of the early warning system. The choice is made by selecting appropriately the weights, and by searching for the optimal (maximum) value of the index. We discuss weakness in the validation procedure caused by the inherent lack of information (epistemic uncertainty) on landslide occurrence typical of large study areas. When working at the regional scale, landslides may have occurred and may have not been reported. This results in biases and variations in the contingencies and the skill scores. We introduce two parameters to represent the unknown proportion of rainfall events (above and below the threshold) for which landslides occurred and went unreported. We show that even a very small underestimation in the number of landslides can result in a significant decrease in the performance of a threshold measured by the skill scores. We show that the variations in the skill scores are different for different uncertainty of events above or below the threshold. This

  4. Using social-ecological systems theory to evaluate large-scale comanagement efforts: a case study of the Inuvialuit Settlement Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Tyson

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Comanagement efforts are increasingly tasked with overseeing natural resource governance at a large scale. I examine comanagement of subsistence harvesting in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region (ISR of the western Canadian Arctic, using a social-ecological systems framework. In doing so, this study joins a growing list of research that reviews design principles commonly found in successful small-scale commons management and applies them to a large resource area. This research uses the management of beluga (Delphinapterus leucas and barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus as case studies in understanding the management framework of the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, as each species is important in Inuvialuit culture and is actively managed and monitored. Comanagement bodies in the study area display many of the institutional design principles that are characteristic of successful social-ecological systems. Particularly mentionable are the presence of well-organized nested enterprises and a strong incorporation of local knowledge and monitoring. This supports the application of institutional design principles in large-scale analyses of resource management. However, due to the network of policy and management outside the ISR that influences each species, this research suggests that in cases of wide-ranging resource bases, these types of analyses may be better suited to evaluating broad management networks rather than discrete governing regions.

  5. CLIMATIC SIGNALS FROM INTRA-ANNUAL DENSITY FLUCTUATION FREQUENCY IN MEDITERRANEAN PINES AT A REGIONAL SCALE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrica eZalloni

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Tree rings provide information about the climatic conditions during the growing season by recording them in different anatomical features, such as Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs. IADFs are intra-annual changes of wood density appearing as latewood-like cells within earlywood, or earlywood-like cells within latewood. The occurrence of IADFs is dependent on the age and size of the tree, and it is triggered by climatic drivers. The variations of IADF frequency of different species and their dependence on climate across a wide geographical range have still to be explored. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of age, tree-ring width and climate on IADF formation and frequency at a regional scale across the Mediterranean Basin in Pinus halepensis Mill., Pinus pinaster Ait. and Pinus pinea L. The analyzed tree-ring network was composed of P. pinea trees growing at 11 sites (2 in Italy, 4 in Spain and 4 in Portugal, P. pinaster from 19 sites (2 in Italy, 13 in Spain and 4 in Portugal, and P. halepensis from 38 sites in Spain. The correlations between IADF frequency and monthly minimum, mean and maximum temperatures, as well as between IADF frequency and total precipitation, were analyzed. A significant negative relationship between IADF frequency and tree-ring age was found for the three Mediterranean pines. Moreover, IADFs were more frequent in wider rings than in narrower ones, although the widest rings showed a reduced IADF frequency. Wet conditions during late summer/early autumn triggered the formation of IADFs in the three species. Our results suggest the existence of a common climatic driver for the formation of IADFs in Mediterranean pines, highlighting the potential use of IADF frequency as a proxy for climate reconstructions with geographical resolution.

  6. Climatic Signals from Intra-annual Density Fluctuation Frequency in Mediterranean Pines at a Regional Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalloni, Enrica; de Luis, Martin; Campelo, Filipe; Novak, Klemen; De Micco, Veronica; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Vieira, Joana; Nabais, Cristina; Rozas, Vicente; Battipaglia, Giovanna

    2016-01-01

    Tree rings provide information about the climatic conditions during the growing season by recording them in different anatomical features, such as intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs). IADFs are intra-annual changes of wood density appearing as latewood-like cells within earlywood, or earlywood-like cells within latewood. The occurrence of IADFs is dependent on the age and size of the tree, and it is triggered by climatic drivers. The variations of IADF frequency of different species and their dependence on climate across a wide geographical range have still to be explored. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of age, tree-ring width and climate on IADF formation and frequency at a regional scale across the Mediterranean Basin in Pinus halepensis Mill., Pinus pinaster Ait., and Pinus pinea L. The analyzed tree-ring network was composed of P. pinea trees growing at 10 sites (2 in Italy, 4 in Spain, and 4 in Portugal), P. pinaster from 19 sites (2 in Italy, 13 in Spain, and 4 in Portugal), and P. halepensis from 38 sites in Spain. The correlations between IADF frequency and monthly minimum, mean and maximum temperatures, as well as between IADF frequency and total precipitation, were analyzed. A significant negative relationship between IADF frequency and tree-ring age was found for the three Mediterranean pines. Moreover, IADFs were more frequent in wider rings than in narrower ones, although the widest rings showed a reduced IADF frequency. Wet conditions during late summer/early autumn triggered the formation of IADFs in the three species. Our results suggest the existence of a common climatic driver for the formation of IADFs in Mediterranean pines, highlighting the potential use of IADF frequency as a proxy for climate reconstructions with geographical resolution. PMID:27200052

  7. Linking agricultural crop management and air quality models for regional to national-scale nitrogen assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooter, E. J.; Bash, J. O.; Benson, V.; Ran, L.

    2012-10-01

    While nitrogen (N) is an essential element for life, human population growth and demands for energy, transportation and food can lead to excess nitrogen in the environment. A modeling framework is described and implemented to promote a more integrated, process-based and system-level approach to the estimation of ammonia (NH3) emissions which result from the application of inorganic nitrogen fertilizers to agricultural soils in the United States. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model is used to simulate plant demand-driven fertilizer applications to commercial cropland throughout the continental US. This information is coupled with a process-based air quality model to produce continental-scale NH3 emission estimates. Regional cropland NH3 emissions are driven by the timing and amount of inorganic NH3 fertilizer applied, soil processes, local meteorology, and ambient air concentrations. Initial fertilizer application often occurs when crops are planted. A state-level evaluation of EPIC-simulated, cumulative planted area compares well with similar USDA reported estimates. EPIC-annual, inorganic fertilizer application amounts also agree well with reported spatial patterns produced by others, but domain-wide the EPIC values are biased about 6% low. Preliminary application of the integrated fertilizer application and air quality modeling system produces a modified geospatial pattern of seasonal NH3 emissions that improves current simulations of observed atmospheric particle nitrate concentrations. This modeling framework provides a more dynamic, flexible, and spatially and temporally resolved estimate of NH3 emissions than previous factor-based NH3 inventories, and will facilitate evaluation of alternative nitrogen and air quality policy and adaptation strategies associated with future climate and land use changes.

  8. [Spatial and temporal variations of hydrological characteristic on the landscape zone scale in alpine cold region].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yong-Gang; Hu, Jin-Fei; Xiao, Hong-Lang; Zou, Song-Bing; Yin, Zhen-Liang

    2013-10-01

    There are few studies on the hydrological characteristics on the landscape zone scale in alpine cold region at present. This paper aimed to identify the spatial and temporal variations in the origin and composition of the runoff, and to reveal the hydrological characteristics in each zone, based on the isotopic analysis of glacier, snow, frozen soil, groundwater, etc. The results showed that during the wet season, heavy precipitation and high temperature in the Mafengou River basin caused secondary evaporation which led to isotope fractionation effects. Therefore, the isotope values remained high. Temperature effects were significant. During the dry season, the temperature was low. Precipitation was in the solid state during the cold season and the evaporation was weak. Water vapor came from the evaporation of local water bodies. Therefore, less secondary evaporation and water vapor exchange occurred, leading to negative values of delta18O and deltaD. delta18O and deltaD values of precipitation and various water bodies exhibited strong seasonal variations. Precipitation exhibited altitude effects, delta18O = -0. 005 2H - 8. 951, deltaD = -0.018 5H - 34. 873. Other water bodies did not show altitude effects in the wet season and dry season, because the runoff was not only recharged by precipitation, but also influenced by the freezing and thawing process of the glacier, snow and frozen soil. The mutual transformation of precipitation, melt water, surface water and groundwater led to variations in isotopic composition. Therefore, homogenization and evaporation effect are the main control factors of isotope variations.

  9. Surface ozone concentrations in Europe: Links with the regional-scale atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, T. D.; Kelly, P. M.; Low, P. S.; Pierce, C. E.

    1992-06-01

    Daily surface ozone observations from 1978 (1976 for some analyses) to 1988 for Bottesford (United Kingdom), Cabauw, Kloosterburen (The Netherlands), Hohenpeissenberg, Neuglobsow, Hamburg, and Arkona (Germany) are used to analyze links between surface ozone variations and the atmospheric circulation. A daily Europe-wide synoptic classification highlights marked differences between surface ozone/meteorology relationships in summer and winter. These relationships are characterized by correlations between daily surface ozone concentrations at each station and a local subregional surface pressure gradient (a wind speed index). Although there are geographical variations, which are explicable in terms of regional climatology, there are distinct annual cycles. In summer, the surface ozone/wind speed relationship exhibits the expected negative sign; however, in winter, the relationship is, in the main, strongly positive, especially at those stations which are more influenced by the vigorous westerlies. Spring and autumn exhibit negative, positive, or transitional (between summer and winter) behavior, depending on geographical position. It is suggested that these relationships reflect the importance of vertical exchange from the free troposphere to the surface in the nonsummer months. Composite surface pressure patterns and surface pressure anomaly (from the long-term mean) patterns associated with high surface ozone concentrations on daily and seasonal time scales are consistent with the surface ozone/wind speed relationships. Moreover, they demonstrate that high surface ozone concentrations, in a climatological time frame, can be associated with mean surface pressure patterns which have a synoptic reality and are robust. Such an approach may be useful in interpreting past variations in surface ozone and may help to isolate the effect of human activity. It is also possible that assessments can be made of the effect of projected future changes in the atmospheric circulation

  10. The influence of fine-scale habitat features on regional variation in population performance of alpine White-tailed Ptarmigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedy, B.; Martin, K.

    2011-01-01

    It is often assumed (explicitly or implicitly) that animals select habitat features to maximize fitness. However, there is often a mismatch between preferred habitats and indices of individual and population measures of performance. We examined the influence of fine-scale habitat selection on the overall population performance of the White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), an alpine specialist, in two subdivided populations whose habitat patches are configured differently. The central region of Vancouver Island, Canada, has more continuous and larger habitat patches than the southern region. In 2003 and 2004, using paired logistic regression between used (n = 176) and available (n = 324) sites, we identified food availability, distance to standing water, and predator cover as preferred habitat components . We then quantified variation in population performance in the two regions in terms of sex ratio, age structure (n = 182 adults and yearlings), and reproductive success (n = 98 females) on the basis of 8 years of data (1995-1999, 2002-2004). Region strongly influenced females' breeding success, which, unsuccessful hens included, was consistently higher in the central region (n = 77 females) of the island than in the south (n = 21 females, P = 0.01). The central region also had a much higher proportion of successful hens (87%) than did the south (55%, P < 0.001). In light of our findings, we suggest that population performance is influenced by a combination of fine-scale habitat features and coarse-scale habitat configuration. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2011.

  11. Power Scaling of the Size Distribution of Economic Loss and Fatalities due to Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Tornadoes, and Floods in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)