WorldWideScience

Sample records for regional modelling analysis

  1. A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambaruch, R.; Salomonson, V. V.; Simmons, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.

  2. MOVES regional level sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    The MOVES Regional Level Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to increase understanding of the operations of the MOVES Model in regional emissions analysis and to highlight the following: : the relative sensitivity of selected MOVES Model input paramet...

  3. Amplitude Analysis and Modeling of Regional Phases in PNE Profiles in Northern Eurasia and Seismic Regionalization

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Morozov, Igor B; Li, Hongyan; Morozova, Elena; Duenow, Joel; Zheng, Haishan; Smithson, Scott B

    2006-01-01

    ... is necessary to use regional phases for nuclear test monitoring. Over the past decades, Russian scientists acquired a network of dense, linear, long range, three-component Deep Seismic Sounding (DSS...

  4. A systematic intercomparison of regional flood frequency analysis models in a simulation framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganora, Daniele; Laio, Francesco; Claps, Pierluigi

    2015-04-01

    Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve (or other discharge-related variables), based on the fundamental concept of substituting temporal information at a site (no data or short time series) by exploiting observations at other sites (spatial information). Different RFA paradigms exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest. Despite the wide use of such methodology, a systematic comparison between these paradigms has not been performed. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison: we thus synthetically generate data through Monte Carlo simulations for a number of (virtual) stations, following a GEV parent distribution; different scenarios can be created to represent different spatial heterogeneity patterns by manipulating the parameters of the parent distribution at each station (e.g. with a linear variation in space of the shape parameter of the GEV). A special case is the homogeneous scenario where each station record is sampled from the same parent distribution. For each scenario and each simulation, different regional models are applied to evaluate the 200-year growth factor at each station. Results are than compared to the exact growth factor of each station, which is known in our virtual world. Considered regional approaches include: (i) a single growth curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model based on cluster analysis which search for an adequate number of homogeneous subregions; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially-smooth estimation procedure based on linear regressions.. A further benchmark model is the at-site estimate based on the analysis of the local record. A comprehensive analysis of the results of the simulations shows that, if the scenario is homogeneous (no spatial variability), all the regional approaches

  5. Regional LLRW processing alternatives applying the DOE REGINALT systems analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beers, G.H.

    1987-01-01

    The DOE Low-Level Waste Management Program has developed a computer-based decision support system of models that may be used by nonprogrammers to evaluate a comprehensive approach to commercial low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) management. REGINALT (Regional Waste Management Alternatives Analysis Model) implementation will be described as the model is applied to hypothetical regional compact for the purpose of examining the technical and economic potential of two waste processing alternatives. Using waste from a typical regional compact, two specific regional waste processing centers are compared for feasibility. Example 1 assumes that a regional supercompaction facility is being developed for the region. Example 2 assumes that a regional facility with both supercompaction and incineration is specified. Both examples include identical disposal facilities, except that capacity may differ due to variation in volume reduction achieved. The two examples are compared with regard to volume reduction achieved, estimated occupational exposure for the processing facilities, and life cycle costs per generated unit waste. A base case also illustrates current disposal practices. The results of the comparisons evaluated, and other steps, if necessary, for additional decision support are identified

  6. Regional LLRW [low-level radioactive waste] processing alternatives applying the DOE REGINALT systems analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beers, G.H.

    1987-01-01

    The DOE Low-Level Waste Management Progam has developed a computer-based decision support system of models that may be used by nonprogrammers to evaluate a comprehensive approach to commercial low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) management. REGINALT (Regional Waste Management Alternatives Analysis Model) implementation will be described as the model is applied to a hypothetical regional compact for the purpose of examining the technical and economic potential of two waste processing alternaties. Using waste from a typical regional compact, two specific regional waste processing centers will be compared for feasibility. Example 1 will assume will assume that a regional supercompaction facility is being developed for the region. Example 2 will assume that a regional facility with both supercompation and incineration is specified. Both examples will include identical disposal facilities, except that capacity may differ due to variation in volume reduction achieved. The two examples will be compared with regard to volume reduction achieved, estimated occupational exposure for the processing facilities, and life cylcle costs per generated unit waste. A base case will also illustrate current disposal practices. The results of the comparisons will be evaluated, and other steps, if necessary, for additional decision support will be identified

  7. Analysis of GRI North American Regional Gas Supply-Demand Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nesbitt, D.M.; Singh, J.; Pine, G.D.; Kline, D.; Barron, M.; Cheung, P.D.

    1989-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results from the GRI North American Regional Gas Supply-Demand Model using the four scenarios defined for the Energy Modeling Forum Number 9 (EMF-9) described in EMF-9 Working Paper 9.4 (1987). The analysis is designed both to showcase the GRI North American Regional model as well as to infer meaningful results about the North American natural gas system. The focus of the analysis is not R ampersand D per se; R ampersand D analysis using the model is conducted regularly by GRI and described elsewhere. Rather, the objective is to analyze some of the major uncertainties in the North American gas market, uncertainties that potentially affect all players including GRI. In particular, the authors seek to quantify the overall economic environment in which production, transmission, distribution, consumption, and R ampersand D decisions will be made and how different that overall environment might be under alternative assumptions. An attendant objective of this analysis has been to enlist economists from a range of organizations (producers, regulators, GRI, and consultants) to carefully scrutinize the GRI North American Regional model and results. In particular, the coauthors were assembled from diverse organizations to review and evaluate model outputs, applying their particular experience and perspective. The four EMF-9 scenarios upon which this paper is based are described in detail later in this document. Briefly, scenario one represents a world with a surfeit of gas and a relatively high oil price projection; scenario two considers a lower oil price forecast; scenario three assumes a pessimistic outlook for the gas resource base with the same oil prices as scenario one; and scenario four examines a higher level of demand for gas in the North American gas market. An important objective of this analysis is to illustrate the predictive power of multi-scenario comparisons (as contrasted with detailed analysis of any individual scenario)

  8. ANALYSIS AND PLANNING OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT - CONTEXTUAL VARIABLES TO DEVELOP A MODEL FOR MONITORING FINANCIAL INDICATORS AT REGIONAL LEVEL.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CRIS TINA GRADEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Application of quantitative techniques in regional analysis can provide an understanding of both the change in time of regional economic performance and the interdependencies between economic sectors, including the use of projections to test the potential future development of the region. Qualitative techniques allow also the explanation of the reason for regional development patterns occurring in a region and the improvement of analysts' ability to reflect on the results and economic opportunities for a future based on collective experience, wisdom and judgment of the actors in region economies.

  9. Nuclear power regional analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parera, María Delia

    2011-01-01

    In this study, a regional analysis of the Argentine electricity market was carried out considering the effects of regional cooperation, national and international interconnections; additionally, the possibilities of insertion of new nuclear power plants in different regions were evaluated, indicating the most suitable areas for these facilities to increase the penetration of nuclear energy in national energy matrix. The interconnection of electricity markets and natural gas due to the linkage between both energy forms was also studied. With this purpose, MESSAGE program was used (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts), promoted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This model performs a country-level economic optimization, resulting in the minimum cost for the modelling system. Regionalization executed by the Wholesale Electricity Market Management Company (CAMMESA, by its Spanish acronym) that divides the country into eight regions. The characteristics and the needs of each region, their respective demands and supplies of electricity and natural gas, as well as existing and planned interconnections, consisting of power lines and pipelines were taken into account. According to the results obtained through the model, nuclear is a competitive option. (author) [es

  10. HRM: HII Region Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Trey V.; Kepley, Amanda K.; Balser, Dana S.

    2017-07-01

    HII Region Models fits HII region models to observed radio recombination line and radio continuum data. The algorithm includes the calculations of departure coefficients to correct for non-LTE effects. HII Region Models has been used to model star formation in the nucleus of IC 342.

  11. Multi-regional input–output model and ecological network analysis for regional embodied energy accounting in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yan; Zheng, Hongmei; Yang, Zhifeng; Su, Meirong; Liu, Gengyuan; Li, Yanxian

    2015-01-01

    Chinese regions frequently exchange materials, but regional differences in economic development create unbalanced flows of these resources. In this study, we examined energy by assessing embodied energy consumption to describe the energy-flow structure in China's seven regions. Based on multi-regional monetary input–output tables and energy statistical yearbooks for Chinese provinces in 2002 and 2007, we accounted for both direct and indirect energy consumption, respectively, and the integral input and output of the provinces. Most integral inputs of energy flowed from north to south or from east to west, whereas integral output flows were mainly from northeast to southwest. This differed from the direct flows, which were predominantly from north to south and west to east. This demonstrates the importance of calculating both direct and indirect energy flows. Analysis of the distance and direction traveled by the energy consumption centers of gravity showed that the centers for embodied energy consumption and inputs moved southeast because of the movements of the centers of the Eastern region. However, the center for outputs moved northeast because the movement of the Central region. These analyses provide a basis for identifying how regional economic development policies influence the embodied energy consumption and its flows among regions. - Highlights: • We integrated multi-regional input–output analysis with ecological network analysis. • We accounted for both direct and indirect energy consumption. • The centers of gravity for embodied energy flows moved southeast from 2002 to 2007. • The results support planning of energy consumption and energy flows among regions.

  12. Comparison of Extreme Precipitation Return Levels using Spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling versus Regional Frequency Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, C. A.; Skahill, B. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Karlovits, G. S.; England, J. F.; Duren, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    We compare gridded extreme precipitation return levels obtained using spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) with their respective counterparts from a traditional regional frequency analysis (RFA) using the same set of extreme precipitation data. Our study area is the 11,478 square mile Willamette River basin (WRB) located in northwestern Oregon, a major tributary of the Columbia River whose 187 miles long main stem, the Willamette River, flows northward between the Coastal and Cascade Ranges. The WRB contains approximately two ­thirds of Oregon's population and 20 of the 25 most populous cities in the state. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Portland District operates thirteen dams and extreme precipitation estimates are required to support risk­ informed hydrologic analyses as part of the USACE Dam Safety Program. Our intent is to profile for the USACE an alternate methodology to an RFA that was developed in 2008 due to the lack of an official NOAA Atlas 14 update for the state of Oregon. We analyze 24-hour annual precipitation maxima data for the WRB utilizing the spatial BHM R package "spatial.gev.bma", which has been shown to be efficient in developing coherent maps of extreme precipitation by return level. Our BHM modeling analysis involved application of leave-one-out cross validation (LOO-CV), which not only supported model selection but also a comprehensive assessment of location specific model performance. The LOO-CV results will provide a basis for the BHM RFA comparison.

  13. A regional scale modeling framework combining biogeochemical model with life cycle and economic analysis for integrated assessment of cropping systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabatabaie, Seyed Mohammad Hossein; Bolte, John P; Murthy, Ganti S

    2018-06-01

    The goal of this study was to integrate a crop model, DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition), with life cycle assessment (LCA) and economic analysis models using a GIS-based integrated platform, ENVISION. The integrated model enables LCA practitioners to conduct integrated economic analysis and LCA on a regional scale while capturing the variability of soil emissions due to variation in regional factors during production of crops and biofuel feedstocks. In order to evaluate the integrated model, the corn-soybean cropping system in Eagle Creek Watershed, Indiana was studied and the integrated model was used to first model the soil emissions and then conduct the LCA as well as economic analysis. The results showed that the variation in soil emissions due to variation in weather is high causing some locations to be carbon sink in some years and source of CO 2 in other years. In order to test the model under different scenarios, two tillage scenarios were defined: 1) conventional tillage (CT) and 2) no tillage (NT) and analyzed with the model. The overall GHG emissions for the corn-soybean cropping system was simulated and results showed that the NT scenario resulted in lower soil GHG emissions compared to CT scenario. Moreover, global warming potential (GWP) of corn ethanol from well to pump varied between 57 and 92gCO 2 -eq./MJ while GWP under the NT system was lower than that of the CT system. The cost break-even point was calculated as $3612.5/ha in a two year corn-soybean cropping system and the results showed that under low and medium prices for corn and soybean most of the farms did not meet the break-even point. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Developing Flexible, Integrated Hydrologic Modeling Systems for Multiscale Analysis in the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.; Sharma, A.; Byun, K.; Hanson, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Physically based hydrologic modeling of surface and groundwater resources that can be flexibly and efficiently applied to support water resources policy/planning/management decisions at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales are greatly needed in the Midwest, where stakeholder access to such tools is currently a fundamental barrier to basic climate change assessment and adaptation efforts, and also the co-production of useful products to support detailed decision making. Based on earlier pilot studies in the Pacific Northwest Region, we are currently assembling a suite of end-to-end tools and resources to support various kinds of water resources planning and management applications across the region. One of the key aspects of these integrated tools is that the user community can access gridded products at any point along the end-to-end chain of models, looking backwards in time about 100 years (1915-2015), and forwards in time about 85 years using CMIP5 climate model projections. The integrated model is composed of historical and projected future meteorological data based on station observations and statistical and dynamically downscaled climate model output respectively. These gridded meteorological data sets serve as forcing data for the macro-scale VIC hydrologic model implemented over the Midwest at 1/16 degree resolution. High-resolution climate model (4km WRF) output provides inputs for the analyses of urban impacts, hydrologic extremes, agricultural impacts, and impacts to the Great Lakes. Groundwater recharge estimated by the surface water model provides input data for fine-scale and macro-scale groundwater models needed for specific applications. To highlight the multi-scale use of the integrated models in support of co-production of scientific information for decision making, we briefly describe three current case studies addressing different spatial scales of analysis: 1) Effects of climate change on the water balance of the Great Lakes, 2) Future

  15. Analysis of acute myocardial infarction occurance in Saratov region using GIS-technologies and prognostic modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SokolovI.M.

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available

     

    The research objective: To find estimation tools of incidence of acute myocardial infarction at the regional level and to optimize organization of medical assistance to patients with acute coronary pathology. Materials. With the use of statistics of territorial distribution of acute myocardial infarction incidence in the region and GIS-TECHNOLOGIES the statistical analysis and mathematical modelling of the spatially-organizational data has been carried out. Results. On the basis of the received results the prognostic model of development of acute coronary pathology has been generated. Measures on optimization of organization of medical assistance to patients with an acute coronary pathology have been stated. Conclusion. Methods of intellectual support of the doctor may become effective in formation of organizational structure of the system of stage-by-stage qualified and specialized aid to patients with acute coronary syndrome.

  16. Regional probabilistic nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment by integration of mathematical modelling land GIS-analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rigina, O.; Baklanov, A.

    2002-01-01

    The Kola Peninsula, Russian Arctic exceeds all other regions in the world in the number of nuclear reactors. The study was aimed at estimating possible radiation risks to the population in the Nordic countries in case of a severe accident in the Kola Peninsula. A new approach based on probabilistic analysis of modelled possible pathways of radionuclide transport and precipitation was developed. For the general population, Finland is at most risk with respect to the Kola NPP, because of: high population density or proximity to the radiation-risk sites and relatively high probability of an airflow trajectory there, and precipitation. After considering the critical group, northern counties in Norway, Finland and Sweden appear to be most vulnerable. (au)

  17. Energy Production and Regional Economic Growth in China: A More Comprehensive Analysis Using a Panel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaobin Liu

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available China has witnessed a fast economic growth in the recent two decades. However, the heavy energy exploitation seems to show a negative relation to regional economic growth. Thus, the issue is whether the energy production is a curse or blessing for the regional economic growth in China. The present study deploys a comprehensive approach to rigorously prove the validity of a proposed panel data model that includes a second generation panel unit root test and panel cointegration and a spatial panel model. The results from the second generation panel unit root test and panel cointegration allowing for cross-sectional dependences show the differenced series are stationary and there exists a cointegration relationship among these variables for all sub-regions. The results from the spatial panel data model support the conjecture of the spatial dependent and show that there is a “resource curse” only for the Western region and Central region in China.

  18. Introduction of hydrogen in the Norwegian energy system. NorWays - Regional model analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun; Espegren, Kari Aamodt

    2008-12-15

    The overall aim of the NorWays project has been to provide decision support for the introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier in the Norwegian energy system. The NorWays project is a research project funded by the Research Council of Norway. An important task has been to develop alternative scenarios and identifying market segments and regions of the Norwegian energy system where hydrogen may play a significant role. The main scenarios in the project have been: Reference: Based on the assumptions of World Energy Outlook with no new transport technologies; HyWays: Basic assumptions with technology costs (H{sub 2}) based on results from the HyWays project; No tax: No taxes on transport energy ('revenue neutral'); CO{sub 2} reduction: Reduced CO{sub 2} emissions by 75% in 2050. Three regional models have been developed and used to analyse the introduction of hydrogen as energy carrier in competition with other alternatives such as natural gas, electricity, district heating and bio fuels.The focus of the analysis has been on the transportation sector. (Author)

  19. ANALYSIS OF MERCURY IN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LAKES: EVALUATION OF THE REGIONAL MERCURY CYCLING MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    An evaluation of the Regional Mercury Cycling Model (R-MCM, a steady-state fate and transport model used to simulate mercury concentrations in lakes) is presented based on its application to a series of 91 lakes in Vermont and New Hampshire. Visual and statistical analyses are pr...

  20. Precipitation recycling in West Africa - regional modeling, evaporation tagging and atmospheric water budget analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald; Knoche, Hans-Richard

    2015-04-01

    Many numerical studies have shown that the West African monsoon is highly sensitive to the state of the land surface. It is however questionable to which extend a local change of land surface properties would affect the local climate, especially with respect to precipitation. This issue is traditionally addressed with the concept of precipitation recycling, defined as the contribution of local surface evaporation to local precipitation. For this study the West African monsoon has been simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using explicit convection, for the domain (1°S-21°N, 18°W-14°E) at a spatial resolution of 10 km, for the period January-October 2013, and using ERA-Interim reanalyses as driving data. This WRF configuration has been selected for its ability to simulate monthly precipitation amounts and daily histograms close to TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data. In order to investigate precipitation recycling in this WRF simulation, surface evaporation tagging has been implemented in the WRF source code as well as the budget of total and tagged atmospheric water. Surface evaporation tagging consists in duplicating all water species and the respective prognostic equations in the source code. Then, tagged water species are set to zero at the lateral boundaries of the simulated domain (no inflow of tagged water vapor), and tagged surface evaporation is considered only in a specified region. All the source terms of the prognostic equations of total and tagged water species are finally saved in the outputs for the budget analysis. This allows quantifying the respective contribution of total and tagged atmospheric water to atmospheric precipitation processes. The WRF simulation with surface evaporation tagging and budgets has been conducted two times, first with a 100 km2 tagged region (11-12°N, 1-2°W), and second with a 1000 km2 tagged region (7-16°N, 6°W -3°E). In this presentation we will investigate hydro

  1. Mapping extreme rainfall in the Northwest Portugal region: statistical analysis and spatial modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Monica; Fragoso, Marcelo

    2010-05-01

    Extreme precipitation events are one of the causes of natural hazards, such as floods and landslides, making its investigation so important, and this research aims to contribute to the study of the extreme rainfall patterns in a Portuguese mountainous area. The study area is centred on the Arcos de Valdevez county, located in the northwest region of Portugal, the rainiest of the country, with more than 3000 mm of annual rainfall at the Peneda-Gerês mountain system. This work focus on two main subjects related with the precipitation variability on the study area. First, a statistical analysis of several precipitation parameters is carried out, using daily data from 17 rain-gauges with a complete record for the 1960-1995 period. This approach aims to evaluate the main spatial contrasts regarding different aspects of the rainfall regime, described by ten parameters and indices of precipitation extremes (e.g. mean annual precipitation, the annual frequency of precipitation days, wet spells durations, maximum daily precipitation, maximum of precipitation in 30 days, number of days with rainfall exceeding 100 mm and estimated maximum daily rainfall for a return period of 100 years). The results show that the highest precipitation amounts (from annual to daily scales) and the higher frequency of very abundant rainfall events occur in the Serra da Peneda and Gerês mountains, opposing to the valleys of the Lima, Minho and Vez rivers, with lower precipitation amounts and less frequent heavy storms. The second purpose of this work is to find a method of mapping extreme rainfall in this mountainous region, investigating the complex influence of the relief (e.g. elevation, topography) on the precipitation patterns, as well others geographical variables (e.g. distance from coast, latitude), applying tested geo-statistical techniques (Goovaerts, 2000; Diodato, 2005). Models of linear regression were applied to evaluate the influence of different geographical variables (altitude

  2. A Development of Nonstationary Regional Frequency Analysis Model with Large-scale Climate Information: Its Application to Korean Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jin-Young; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Hung-Soo

    2015-04-01

    The existing regional frequency analysis has disadvantages in that it is difficult to consider geographical characteristics in estimating areal rainfall. In this regard, this study aims to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model based nonstationary regional frequency analysis in that spatial patterns of the design rainfall with geographical information (e.g. latitude, longitude and altitude) are explicitly incorporated. This study assumes that the parameters of Gumbel (or GEV distribution) are a function of geographical characteristics within a general linear regression framework. Posterior distribution of the regression parameters are estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, and the identified functional relationship is used to spatially interpolate the parameters of the distributions by using digital elevation models (DEM) as inputs. The proposed model is applied to derive design rainfalls over the entire Han-river watershed. It was found that the proposed Bayesian regional frequency analysis model showed similar results compared to L-moment based regional frequency analysis. In addition, the model showed an advantage in terms of quantifying uncertainty of the design rainfall and estimating the area rainfall considering geographical information. Finally, comprehensive discussion on design rainfall in the context of nonstationary will be presented. KEYWORDS: Regional frequency analysis, Nonstationary, Spatial information, Bayesian Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  3. Sub-regional linear programming models in land use analysis: a case study of the Neguev settlement, Costa Rica.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schipper, R.A.; Stoorvogel, J.J.; Jansen, D.M.

    1995-01-01

    The paper deals with linear programming as a tool for land use analysis at the sub-regional level. A linear programming model of a case study area, the Neguev settlement in the Atlantic zone of Costa Rica, is presented. The matrix of the model includes five submatrices each encompassing a different

  4. Uncertainty Source of Modeled Ecosystem Productivity in East Asian Monsoon Region: A Traceability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, E.; Xia, J.; Huang, K.; Ito, A.; Arain, M. A.; Jain, A. K.; Poulter, B.; Peng, C.; Hayes, D. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Tian, H.; Mao, J.; Fisher, J.; Schaefer, K. M.; Huang, M.; Peng, S.; Wang, W.

    2017-12-01

    East Asian monsoon region, benefits from sufficient water-heat availability and increasing nitrogen deposition, represents significantly higher net ecosystem productivity than the same latitudes of Europe-Africa and North America. A better understanding of major contributions to the uncertainties of terrestrial carbon cycle in this region is greatly important for evaluating the global carbon balance. This study analyzed the key carbon processes and parameters derived from a series of terrestrial biosphere models. A wide range of inter-model disagreement on GPP was found in China's subtropical regions. Then, this large difference was traced to a few traceable components included in terrestrial carbon cycle. The increase in ensemble mean GPP over 1901-2010 was predominantly resulted from increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, while high frequent land-use change over this region showed a slightly negative effect on GPP. However, inter-model differences of GPP were mainly attributed to the baseline simulations without changes in external forcing. According to the variance decomposition, the large spread in simulated GPP was well explained by the differences in leaf area index (LAI) and specific leaf area (SLA) among models. In addition, the underlying errors in simulated GPP propagate through the model and introduce some additional errors to the simulation of NPP and biomass. By comparing the simulations with satellite-derived, data-oriented and observation-based datasets, we further found that GPP, vegetation carbon turn-over time, aboveground biomass, LAI and SLA were all overestimated in most of the models while biomass distribution in leaves was significantly underestimated. The results of this study indicate that model performance on ecosystem productivity in East Asian monsoon region can be improved by a more realistic representation of leaf functional traits.

  5. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, José-Luis; Pernica, Patricia; Wheater, Howard; Mackay, Murray; Spence, Chris

    2017-12-01

    Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere - heat-exchange fluxes - is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM), a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd). A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE), was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA) and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue - different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results - the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.

  6. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  7. Dynamic modeling and dynamical analysis of pump-turbines in S-shaped regions during runaway operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Hao; Chen, Diyi; Wu, Changzhi; Wang, Xiangyu; Lee, Jae-Myung; Jung, Kwang-Hyo

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Novel dynamic model of a pump-turbine in S-shaped regions is proposed. • A stability criterion of runaway point is given. • Global dynamic characteristics of the pump-turbine are investigated. • Effects of the slopes of the characteristic curve on the stability are studied. - Abstract: There is a region of pump-turbine operation, often called the S-shaped region, in which one unit rotational speed corresponds to three unit flows or torques. In this paper, the dynamic model of the pump-turbine in S-shaped regions is established by introducing the nonlinear piecewise function of relative parameters. Then, the global bifurcation diagrams of the pump-turbine are presented to analyze its dynamic characteristics in the S-shaped regions. Meanwhile, a stability criterion of runaway point is given based on the established theoretical model. The numerical experiments are conducted on the model and the results are in good agreement with the theoretical analysis. Furthermore, the effects of the characteristic curve slopes on the stability of the pump-turbine are studied by an innovative use of the three-dimensional bifurcation diagrams. Finally, the factors influencing the runaway stability of pump-turbines are also discussed, based on the dynamic analysis.

  8. Study on uncertainty evaluation methodology related to hydrological parameter of regional groundwater flow analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakai, Ryutaro; Munakata, Masahiro; Ohoka, Masao; Kameya, Hiroshi

    2009-11-01

    In the safety assessment for a geological disposal of radioactive waste, it is important to develop a methodology for long-term estimation of regional groundwater flow from data acquisition to numerical analyses. In the uncertainties associated with estimation of regional groundwater flow, there are the one that concerns parameters and the one that concerns the hydrologeological evolution. The uncertainties of parameters include measurement errors and their heterogeneity. The authors discussed the uncertainties of hydraulic conductivity as a significant parameter for regional groundwater flow analysis. This study suggests that hydraulic conductivities of rock mass are controlled by rock characteristics such as fractures, porosity and test conditions such as hydraulic gradient, water quality, water temperature and that there exists variations more than ten times in hydraulic conductivity by difference due to test conditions such as hydraulic gradient or due to rock type variations such as rock fractures, porosity. In addition this study demonstrated that confining pressure change caused by uplift and subsidence and change of hydraulic gradient under the long-term evolution of hydrogeological environment could possibly produce variations more than ten times of magnitude in hydraulic conductivity. It was also shown that the effect of water quality change on hydraulic conductivity was not negligible and that the replacement of fresh water and saline water caused by sea level change could induce 0.6 times in current hydraulic conductivities in case of Horonobe site. (author)

  9. Regional Shelter Analysis Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dillon, Michael B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Dennison, Deborah [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Kane, Jave [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Walker, Hoyt [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Miller, Paul [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The fallout from a nuclear explosion has the potential to injure or kill 100,000 or more people through exposure to external gamma (fallout) radiation. Existing buildings can reduce radiation exposure by placing material between fallout particles and exposed people. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory was tasked with developing an operationally feasible methodology that could improve fallout casualty estimates. The methodology, called a Regional Shelter Analysis, combines the fallout protection that existing buildings provide civilian populations with the distribution of people in various locations. The Regional Shelter Analysis method allows the consideration of (a) multiple building types and locations within buildings, (b) country specific estimates, (c) population posture (e.g., unwarned vs. minimally warned), and (d) the time of day (e.g., night vs. day). The protection estimates can be combined with fallout predictions (or measurements) to (a) provide a more accurate assessment of exposure and injury and (b) evaluate the effectiveness of various casualty mitigation strategies. This report describes the Regional Shelter Analysis methodology, highlights key operational aspects (including demonstrating that the methodology is compatible with current tools), illustrates how to implement the methodology, and provides suggestions for future work.

  10. ANALYSIS OF LAND RESOURCES SUITABILITY BY FUNCTIONAL MODEL IN EASTERN CROATIA REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vukadinović

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A total of 17405 soil samples (2003rd-2009th years were analyzed in the eastern part of Croatia. The aim of this paper is to assess land suitability for crops i.e. to describe quantitatively land quality and indicate disadvantages of land using system in investigated area. The described mathematical model uses score functions for estimating indicators of soil suitability. Soil suitability assessment computer model for crops, supported by GIS, proved to be fast, efficient and enough reliable. Using GIS tool it is possible to visualize land suitability and present it in different cartographic bases such as maps whereas using geostatistical method – kriging enables to possible to provide regionalization of production area based on quantitative assessment of land suitability for crops.

  11. Sensitivity analysis with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over the CORDEX-MENA domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucchignani, E.; Cattaneo, L.; Panitz, H.-J.; Mercogliano, P.

    2016-02-01

    The results of a sensitivity work based on ERA-Interim driven COSMO-CLM simulations over the Middle East-North Africa (CORDEX-MENA) domain are presented. All simulations were performed at 0.44° spatial resolution. The purpose of this study was to ascertain model performances with respect to changes in physical and tuning parameters which are mainly related to surface, convection, radiation and cloud parameterizations. Evaluation was performed for the whole CORDEX-MENA region and six sub-regions, comparing a set of 26 COSMO-CLM runs against a combination of available ground observations, satellite products and reanalysis data to assess temperature, precipitation, cloud cover and mean sea level pressure. The model proved to be very sensitive to changes in physical parameters. The optimized configuration allows COSMO-CLM to improve the simulated main climate features of this area. Its main characteristics consist in the new parameterization of albedo, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data, and the new parameterization of aerosol, based on NASA-GISS AOD distributions. When applying this configuration, Mean Absolute Error values for the considered variables are as follows: about 1.2 °C for temperature, about 15 mm/month for precipitation, about 9 % for total cloud cover, and about 0.6 hPa for mean sea level pressure.

  12. Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jinlong; Zhai, Jianqing; Jiang, Tong; Wang, Yanjun; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Run; Xiong, Ming; Su, Buda; Fischer, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, the intensity, area and duration of future droughts in China are analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The SPI and SPEI are used to evaluate the simulation ability of drought characteristics with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The projected intensity and duration of future drought events are analyzed for the period 2016-2050 under three different respective concentration pathways (RCPs). The simulated and projected drought events are analyzed by applying the intensity-area-duration method. The results show that CCLM has a robust capability to simulate the average drought characteristics, while some regional disparities are not well captured, mainly the simulation of more drought events of shorter duration in Northwest China. For the future period 2016-2050, more intense dryness conditions are projected for China. An increase in evapotranspiration is found all over China, while a reduction in precipitation is apparent in the southern river basins. The increase in evapotranspiration plays an important role in the changes of future droughts over the northern river basins and southern river basins. Under RCP2.6, drought events of longer duration and with higher frequency are projected for the southwest and southeast of China. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a continuing tendency to more dry conditions is projected along a dryness band stretching from the southwest to the northeast of China. More frequent drought events of longer duration are projected in the southwestern river basins. For all future droughts, larger extents are projected, especially for events with long-term duration. The projected long-term drought events will occur more often and more severe than during the baseline period, and their central locations will likely shift towards Southeast China. The results of this study can be used to initiate and strengthen drought adaptation measures at

  13. Comparative analysis of national and regional models of the silver economy in the European Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Klimczuk

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The approach to analysing population ageing and its impacts on the economy has evolved in recent years. There is increasing interest in the development and use of products and services related to gerontechnology as well as other social innovations that may be considered as central parts of the "silver economy." However, the concept of silver economy is still being formed and requires detailed research. This article proposes a typology of models of the silver economy in the European Union (EU at the national and regional levels. This typology was created by comparing the Active Ageing Index to the typology of varieties and cultures of capitalism and typology of the welfare states. Practical recommendations for institutions of the EU and directions for further research are discussed.

  14. Biomass burning losses of carbon estimated from ecosystem modeling and satellite data analysis for the Brazilian Amazon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Christopher; Brooks Genovese, Vanessa; Klooster, Steven; Bobo, Matthew; Torregrosa, Alicia

    To produce a new daily record of gross carbon emissions from biomass burning events and post-burning decomposition fluxes in the states of the Brazilian Legal Amazon (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE), 1991. Anuario Estatistico do Brasil, Vol. 51. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil pp. 1-1024). We have used vegetation greenness estimates from satellite images as inputs to a terrestrial ecosystem production model. This carbon allocation model generates new estimates of regional aboveground vegetation biomass at 8-km resolution. The modeled biomass product is then combined for the first time with fire pixel counts from the advanced very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) to overlay regional burning activities in the Amazon. Results from our analysis indicate that carbon emission estimates from annual region-wide sources of deforestation and biomass burning in the early 1990s are apparently three to five times higher than reported in previous studies for the Brazilian Legal Amazon (Houghton et al., 2000. Nature 403, 301-304; Fearnside, 1997. Climatic Change 35, 321-360), i.e., studies which implied that the Legal Amazon region tends toward a net-zero annual source of terrestrial carbon. In contrast, our analysis implies that the total source fluxes over the entire Legal Amazon region range from 0.2 to 1.2 Pg C yr -1, depending strongly on annual rainfall patterns. The reasons for our higher burning emission estimates are (1) use of combustion fractions typically measured during Amazon forest burning events for computing carbon losses, (2) more detailed geographic distribution of vegetation biomass and daily fire activity for the region, and (3) inclusion of fire effects in extensive areas of the Legal Amazon covered by open woodland, secondary forests, savanna, and pasture vegetation. The total area of rainforest estimated annually to be deforested did not differ substantially among the previous analyses cited and our own.

  15. Methods for Automating Analysis of Glacier Morphology for Regional Modelling: Centerlines, Extensions, and Elevation Bands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viger, R. J.; Van Beusekom, A. E.

    2016-12-01

    The treatment of glaciers in modeling requires information about their shape and extent. This presentation discusses new methods and their application in a new glacier-capable variant of the USGS PRMS model, a physically-based, spatially distributed daily time-step model designed to simulate the runoff and evolution of glaciers through time. In addition to developing parameters describing PRMS land surfaces (hydrologic response units, HRUs), several of the analyses and products are likely of interest to cryospheric science community in general. The first method is a (fully automated) variation of logic previously presented in the literature for definition of the glacier centerline. Given that the surface of a glacier might be convex, using traditional topographic analyses based on a DEM to trace a path down the glacier is not reliable. Instead a path is derived based on a cost function. Although only a single path is presented in our results, the method can be easily modified to delineate a branched network of centerlines for each glacier. The second method extends the glacier terminus downslope by an arbitrary distance, according to local surface topography. This product is can be used to explore possible, if unlikely, scenarios under which glacier area grows. More usefully, this method can be used to approximate glacier extents from previous years without needing historical imagery. The final method presents an approach for segmenting the glacier into altitude-based HRUs. Successful integration of this information with traditional approaches for discretizing the non-glacierized portions of a basin requires several additional steps. These include synthesizing the glacier centerline network with one developed with a traditional DEM analysis, ensuring that flow can be routed under and beyond glaciers to a basin outlet. Results are presented based on analysis of the Copper River Basin, Alaska.

  16. Predictive models and spatial analysis for the study of deserted medieval villages in Basilicata Region (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biscione, Marilisa; Danese, Maria; Masini, Nicola; Sabia, Canio

    2016-04-01

    The study is focused on villages that are abandoned throughout the Basilicata from the 13th to the 15th century (Masini 1998), which is an emblematic case of abandonment of settlements in Late Middle Ages, which was a very common phenomenon throughout the whole Europe, attracting the interest of several historians and archaeologists (Demians d'Archimbaud 2001) The aim of the present study is to offer a contribution to knowledge of the medieval Basilicata's landscapes and settlement's dynamics with a multidisciplinary approach, derived from the rescue archeology: we have integrated the documentary sources with the use of spatial analysis and predictive models (Danese et al. 2009). The preventive archeology was born to conciliate the protection of archeological heritage, in evidence and potential, with the needs of urban design and planning. It is of fundamental importance, for a reliable evaluation of archaeological potential (identifying invisible traces) to use innovative diagnostic technologies: geophysical prospections, remote sensing (Lasaponara & Masini 2010; Lasaponara et al. 2016) and spatial analysis for the creation of predictive models. The latter are used to accomplish operational purposes but also for the historical landscape reconstruction (Danese et al. 2013; 2014). They contribute to analyse settlements and their dynamics on the basis of definite method and parameters. Thanks to predictive models it is possible, in fact, to start off by information of well-known archeological sites and use this knowledge as an empiric test for understand which elements have influenced their localization in the space. The relationships among natural environment, social context and position site are analysed in order to make clear the rules of settlement. These rules are then used into the model (Podobnikar et al. 2001). In this work the employed methodology is Spatial Analysis, in order to subdivide the territory based on its importance respect to a given function

  17. Physicochemical analysis of clays and ceramics of the regional state of Calakmul: production models, distribution and consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dominguez C, M.R.; Folan, W.J.; Espinosa P, M.E.; Rodriguez L, V.

    2005-01-01

    This work presents the final results of the research project 'Sources, production and consumption of ceramics in the regional state of Calakmul: a socio-political approach', with the proposal of models of production and ceramic specialization as well as of distribution and consumption of these goods in the territory that occupied the regional state of Calakmul, with base in the typological analysis of the ceramics of Calakmul and 72 sites registered in its environs as well as in comparative studies with ceramics of other greater sites near Calakmul and complemented with the application of analytical techniques in the study of clays and sherds diagnoses of the Mayan Classic period. These models were proposed also, according to a socio-political approach based on the social and political relations that Calakmul maintained with other political entities of diverse ranks derived from the obtained epigraphic evidences. (Author)

  18. Regional impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on future ocean carbon uptake: a multi model linear feedback analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, Tilla; Bopp, Laurent; Gehlen, Marion; Cadule, Patricia; Schneider, Birgit; Frolicher, Thomas L.; Segschneider, Joachim; Tjiputra, Jerry; Heinze, Christoph; Joos, Fortunat

    2011-01-01

    The increase in atmospheric CO 2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air-sea CO 2 uptake, which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO 2 itself and climate change. Here, the future oceanic CO 2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate-carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO 2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully separates the regional future (2010-2100) oceanic CO 2 uptake into a CO 2 -induced component, due to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and a climate-induced component, due to global warming. The models capture the observation based magnitude and distribution of anthropogenic CO 2 uptake. The distributions of the climate-induced component are broadly consistent between the models, with reduced CO 2 uptake in the sub polar Southern Ocean and the equatorial regions, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility; and reduced CO 2 uptake in the mid-latitudes, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility and increased vertical stratification. The magnitude of the climate-induced component is sensitive to local warming in the southern extra-tropics, to large freshwater fluxes in the extra-tropical North Atlantic Ocean, and to small changes in the CO 2 solubility in the equatorial regions. In key anthropogenic CO 2 uptake regions, the climate-induced component offsets the CO 2 - induced component at a constant proportion up until the end of this century. This amounts to approximately 50% in the northern extra-tropics and 25% in the southern extra-tropics and equatorial regions. Consequently, the detection of climate change impacts on anthropogenic CO 2 uptake may be difficult without monitoring additional tracers, such as oxygen. (authors)

  19. Regional impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on future ocean carbon uptake: a multi model linear feedback analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, Tilla; Bopp, Laurent; Gehlen, Marion; Cadule, Patricia

    2011-01-01

    The increase in atmospheric CO 2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air-sea CO 2 uptake, which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO 2 itself and climate change. Here, the future oceanic CO 2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate-carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO 2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully separates the regional future (2010-2100) oceanic CO 2 uptake into a CO 2 -induced component, due to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and a climate-induced component, due to global warming. The models capture the observation based magnitude and distribution of anthropogenic CO 2 uptake. The distributions of the climate-induced component are broadly consistent between the models, with reduced CO 2 uptake in the sub-polar Southern Ocean and the equatorial regions, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility; and reduced CO 2 uptake in the mid latitudes, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility and increased vertical stratification. The magnitude of the climate-induced component is sensitive to local warming in the southern extra tropics, to large freshwater fluxes in the extra tropical North Atlantic Ocean, and to small changes in the CO 2 solubility in the equatorial regions. In key anthropogenic CO 2 uptake regions, the climate-induced component offsets the CO 2 - induced component at a constant proportion up until the end of this century. This amounts to approximately 50% in the northern extra tropics and 25% in the southern extra tropics and equatorial regions. Consequently, the detection of climate change impacts on anthropogenic CO 2 uptake may be difficult without monitoring additional tracers, such as oxygen. (authors)

  20. Recent greenland accumulation estimated from regional climate model simulations and ice core analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dethloff, K.; Schwager, M.; Christensen, J. H.

    2002-01-01

    to precipitation. Maxima of precipitation and accumulation occur at the southwestern and southeastern coasts of Greenland and are connected with cyclonic activity and the main storm tracks around Greenland. The central region of the Greenland ice sheet acts as a blocking barrier on moving weather systems...... and prohibits cyclones moving from west to east across this region and, thus prevents moisture transports....

  1. Incorporating a vascular term into a reference region model for the analysis of DCE-MRI data: a simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faranesh, A Z; Yankeelov, T E

    2008-01-01

    A vascular term was incorporated into a reference region (RR) model analysis of DCE-MRI data, and its effect on the accuracy of the model in estimating tissue kinetic parameters in a tissue of interest (TOI) was systematically investigated through computer simulations. Errors in the TOI volume transfer constant (K trans,TOI ) and TOI extravascular extracellular volume (v e,TOI ) that result when the fractional plasma volume (v p ) was included in (1) neither region, (2) TOI only (3) both regions were investigated. For nominal values of tumor kinetic parameters (v e,TOI = 0.40 and K trans,TOI = 0.25 min -1 ), if the vascular term was included in neither region or the TOI only, K trans,TOI error was within 20% for 0.03 p,TOI e,TOI error was within 20% for the range of v p,TOI studied (0.01-0.10). The effects of temporal resolution were shown to be complex, and in some cases errors increased with increasing temporal resolution

  2. Model for Building a Distribution Network Based on the Multivariate Analysis of the Industrial and Logistical Potential of Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Vladimirovich Kirillov

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The international integration of the Russian economy is connected to the need of the realization of the competitive advantages of the geopolitical position of Russia, the industrial potential of regions, the logistic infrastructure of transport corridors. This article discusses the design model of the supply chain (distribution network based on the multivariate analysis and the methodology of the substantiation of its configuration based on the cost factors and the level of the logistics infrastructure development. For solving the problem of placing one or more logistics centers in the service area, a two-stage algorithm is used. At the first stage, the decisions on the reasonability of the choice of one or another version of the development are made with А. В. Кириллов, В. Е. Целин 345 ЭКОНОМИКА РЕГИОНА №4 (2015 the use of the “Make or Buy” standard model. The criterion of decision making is the guaranteed overcoming of the threshold of “indifference” taking into account the statistical characteristics of costs for options of “buy” and “make” depending on the volume of consumption of goods or services. At the second stage, the Ardalan’s heuristic method is used for the evaluation of the choice of placing one or more logistics centers in the service area. The model parameters are based on the assessment of the development prospects of the region and its investment potential (existence and composition of employment, production, natural resources, financial and consumer opportunities, institutional, innovation, infrastructure capacity. Furthermore, such criteria as a regional financial appeal, professionally trained specialists, the competitive advantages of the promoted company and others are analyzed. An additional criterion is the development of the priority matrix, which considers such factors as difficulties of customs registration and certification, a level of regional transport

  3. Regional energy facility siting analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eberhart, R.C.; Eagles, T.W.

    1976-01-01

    Results of the energy facility siting analysis portion of a regional pilot study performed for the anticipated National Energy Siting and Facility Report are presented. The question of cell analysis versus site-specific analysis is explored, including an evaluation of the difference in depth between the two approaches. A discussion of the possible accomplishments of regional analysis is presented. It is concluded that regional sitting analysis could be of use in a national siting study, if its inherent limits are recognized

  4. Neutron lifetimes behavior analysis considering the two-region kinetic model in the IPEN/MB-01 reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonnelli, Eduardo; Diniz, Ricardo [Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares - IPEN/CNEN-SP Travessa R-400, 05508-900, Cidade Universitária, São Paulo (Brazil)

    2014-11-11

    This is a complementary work about the behavior analysis of the neutron lifetimes that was developed in the IPEN/MB-01 nuclear reactor facility. The macroscopic neutron noise technique was experimentally employed using pulse mode detectors for two stages of control rods insertion, where a total of twenty levels of subcriticality have been carried out. It was also considered that the neutron reflector density was treated as an additional group of delayed neutrons, being a sophisticated approach in the two-region kinetic theoretical model.

  5. Neutron lifetimes behavior analysis considering the two-region kinetic model in the IPEN/MB-01 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonnelli, Eduardo; Diniz, Ricardo

    2014-01-01

    This is a complementary work about the behavior analysis of the neutron lifetimes that was developed in the IPEN/MB-01 nuclear reactor facility. The macroscopic neutron noise technique was experimentally employed using pulse mode detectors for two stages of control rods insertion, where a total of twenty levels of subcriticality have been carried out. It was also considered that the neutron reflector density was treated as an additional group of delayed neutrons, being a sophisticated approach in the two-region kinetic theoretical model

  6. Modeling and analysis of PET studies with norepinephrine transporter ligands: the search for a reference region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Logan, Jean [Chemistry Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States)]. E-mail: logan@bnl.gov; Ding, Y.-S. [Chemistry Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Lin, K.-S. [Chemistry Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Pareto, Deborah [Medical Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Functional Imaging, Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Fowler, Joanna [Chemistry Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Biegon, Anat [Medical Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States)

    2005-07-01

    The development of positron emission tomography (PET) ligands for the norepinephrine transporter (NET) has been slow compared to the development of radiotracers for others systems, such as the dopamine (DAT) or the serotonin transporters (SERT). The main reason for this appears to be the high nonspecific (non-NET) binding exhibited by many of these tracers, which makes the identification of a reference region difficult. With other PET ligands the use of a reference region increases the reproducibility of the outcome measure in test/retest studies. The focus of this work is to identify a suitable reference region or means of normalizing data for the NET ligands investigated. Methods: We have analyzed the results of PET studies in the baboon brain with labeled reboxetine derivatives (S,S)-[{sup 11}C]O-methyl reboxetine (SS-MRB), (S,S)-[{sup 18}F]fluororeboxetine (SS-FRB) as well as O-[{sup 11}C]nisoxetine and N-[{sup 11}C]nisoxetine (NIS), and, for comparison, the less active (R,R) enantiomers (RR-MRB, RR-FRB) in terms of the distribution volume (DV) using measured arterial input functions. Results: (1) For a given subject, a large variation in DV for successive baseline studies was observed in regions with both high and low NET density. (2) The occipital cortex and the basal ganglia were found to be the regions with the smallest change between baseline (SS-MRB) and pretreatment with cocaine, and were therefore used as a composite reference region for calculation of a distribution volume ratio (DVR). (3) The variability [as measured by the coefficient of variation (CV)=standard deviation/mean] in the distribution volume ratio (DVR) of thalamus (to reference region) was considerably reduced over that of the DV using this composite reference region. (4) Pretreatment with nisoxetine (1.0 mg/kg 10 min prior to tracer) in one study produced (in decreasing order) reductions in thalamus, cerebellum, cingulate and frontal cortex consistent with known NET densities. (5) [{sup

  7. Modeling and analysis of PET studies with norepinephrine transporter ligands: the search for a reference region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Jean; Ding, Yu-Shin; Lin, Kuo-Shyan; Pareto, Deborah; Fowler, Joanna; Biegon, Anat

    2005-07-01

    The development of positron emission tomography (PET) ligands for the norepinephrine transporter (NET) has been slow compared to the development of radiotracers for others systems, such as the dopamine (DAT) or the serotonin transporters (SERT). The main reason for this appears to be the high nonspecific (non-NET) binding exhibited by many of these tracers, which makes the identification of a reference region difficult. With other PET ligands the use of a reference region increases the reproducibility of the outcome measure in test/retest studies. The focus of this work is to identify a suitable reference region or means of normalizing data for the NET ligands investigated. We have analyzed the results of PET studies in the baboon brain with labeled reboxetine derivatives (S,S)-[(11)C]O-methyl reboxetine (SS-MRB), (S,S)-[(18)F]fluororeboxetine (SS-FRB) as well as O-[(11)C]nisoxetine and N-[(11)C]nisoxetine (NIS), and, for comparison, the less active (R,R) enantiomers (RR-MRB, RR-FRB) in terms of the distribution volume (DV) using measured arterial input functions. (1) For a given subject, a large variation in DV for successive baseline studies was observed in regions with both high and low NET density. (2) The occipital cortex and the basal ganglia were found to be the regions with the smallest change between baseline (SS-MRB) and pretreatment with cocaine, and were therefore used as a composite reference region for calculation of a distribution volume ratio (DVR). (3) The variability [as measured by the coefficient of variation (CV) = standard deviation/mean] in the distribution volume ratio (DVR) of thalamus (to reference region) was considerably reduced over that of the DV using this composite reference region. (4) Pretreatment with nisoxetine (1.0 mg/kg 10 min prior to tracer) in one study produced (in decreasing order) reductions in thalamus, cerebellum, cingulate and frontal cortex consistent with known NET densities. (5) [(11)C]Nisoxetine had a higher

  8. Modeling and analysis of PET studies with norepinephrine transporter ligands: the search for a reference region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logan, Jean; Ding, Y.-S.; Lin, K.-S.; Pareto, Deborah; Fowler, Joanna; Biegon, Anat

    2005-01-01

    The development of positron emission tomography (PET) ligands for the norepinephrine transporter (NET) has been slow compared to the development of radiotracers for others systems, such as the dopamine (DAT) or the serotonin transporters (SERT). The main reason for this appears to be the high nonspecific (non-NET) binding exhibited by many of these tracers, which makes the identification of a reference region difficult. With other PET ligands the use of a reference region increases the reproducibility of the outcome measure in test/retest studies. The focus of this work is to identify a suitable reference region or means of normalizing data for the NET ligands investigated. Methods: We have analyzed the results of PET studies in the baboon brain with labeled reboxetine derivatives (S,S)-[ 11 C]O-methyl reboxetine (SS-MRB), (S,S)-[ 18 F]fluororeboxetine (SS-FRB) as well as O-[ 11 C]nisoxetine and N-[ 11 C]nisoxetine (NIS), and, for comparison, the less active (R,R) enantiomers (RR-MRB, RR-FRB) in terms of the distribution volume (DV) using measured arterial input functions. Results: (1) For a given subject, a large variation in DV for successive baseline studies was observed in regions with both high and low NET density. (2) The occipital cortex and the basal ganglia were found to be the regions with the smallest change between baseline (SS-MRB) and pretreatment with cocaine, and were therefore used as a composite reference region for calculation of a distribution volume ratio (DVR). (3) The variability [as measured by the coefficient of variation (CV)=standard deviation/mean] in the distribution volume ratio (DVR) of thalamus (to reference region) was considerably reduced over that of the DV using this composite reference region. (4) Pretreatment with nisoxetine (1.0 mg/kg 10 min prior to tracer) in one study produced (in decreasing order) reductions in thalamus, cerebellum, cingulate and frontal cortex consistent with known NET densities. (5) [ 11 C]Nisoxetine had

  9. Sensitivity analysis of an explanatory crop model at the regional scale using geospatial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Explanatory, or process-based, crop models are computational tools that have been developed for a wide range of applications, such as optimizing crop production and simulating the effects of climate change. Crop models rely on a diverse set of input variables for predicting outcomes such as crop yie...

  10. Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing Input-Output and Computable General Equilibrium models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koks, E.E.; Carrera, L.; Jonkeren, O.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Husby, T.G.; Thissen, M.; Standardi, G.; Mysiak, J.

    2016-01-01

    A variety of models have been applied to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are input-output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing number of scholars have developed hybrid approaches: one that combines both or either of

  11. The Scandinavian regional model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torfing, Jacob; Lidström, Anders; Røiseland, Asbjørn

    2015-01-01

    This article maps how the sub-national regional levels of governance in Denmark, Norway and Sweden have changed from a high degree of institutional convergence to a pattern of institutional divergence. It analyses the similarities and differences in the changes in regional governance and discusses...

  12. Change Detection Analysis of Water Pollution in Coimbatore Region using Different Color Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiji, G. Wiselin; Devi, R. Naveena

    2017-12-01

    The data acquired through remote sensing satellites furnish facts about the land and water at varying resolutions and has been widely used for several change detection studies. Apart from the existence of many change detection methodologies and techniques, emergence of new ones continues to subsist. Existing change detection techniques exploit images that are either in gray scale or RGB color model. In this paper we introduced color models for performing change detection for water pollution. Here the polluted lakes are classified and post-classification change detection techniques are applied to RGB images and results obtained are analysed for changes to exist or not. Furthermore RGB images obtained after classification when converted to any of the two color models YCbCr and YIQ is found to produce the same results as that of the RGB model images. Thus it can be concluded that other color models like YCbCr, YIQ can be used as substitution to RGB color model for analysing change detection with regard to water pollution.

  13. Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: Analysis with Global Multi-regional MARKAL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rafaj, Peter; Kypreos, Socrates

    2007-01-01

    The Global MARKAL-Model (GMM), a multi-regional 'bottom-up' partial equilibrium model of the global energy system with endogenous technological learning, is used to address impacts of internalisation of external costs from power production. This modelling approach imposes additional charges on electricity generation, which reflect the costs of environmental and health damages from local pollutants (SO 2 , NO x ) and climate change, wastes, occupational health, risk of accidents, noise and other burdens. Technologies allowing abatement of pollutants emitted from power plants are rapidly introduced into the energy system, for example, desulphurisation, NO x removal, and CO 2 scrubbers. The modelling results indicate substantial changes in the electricity production system in favour of natural gas combined cycle, nuclear power and renewables induced by internalisation of external costs and also efficiency loss due to the use of scrubbers. Structural changes and fuel switching in the electricity sector result in significant reduction of emissions of both local pollution and CO 2 over the modelled time period. Strong decarbonisation impact of internalising local externalities suggests that ancillary benefits can be expected from policies directly addressing other issues then CO 2 mitigation. Finally, the detailed analysis of the total generation cost of different technologies points out that inclusion of external cost in the price of electricity increases competitiveness of non-fossil generation sources and fossil power plants with emission control

  14. Biomass burning emissions of reactive gases estimated from satellite data analysis and ecosystem modeling for the Brazilian Amazon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Christopher; Brooks-Genovese, Vanessa; Klooster, Steven; Torregrosa, Alicia

    2002-10-01

    To produce a new daily record of trace gas emissions from biomass burning events for the Brazilian Legal Amazon, we have combined satellite advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data on fire counts together for the first time with vegetation greenness imagery as inputs to an ecosystem biomass model at 8 km spatial resolution. This analysis goes beyond previous estimates for reactive gas emissions from Amazon fires, owing to a more detailed geographic distribution estimate of vegetation biomass, coupled with daily fire activity for the region (original 1 km resolution), and inclusion of fire effects in extensive areas of the Legal Amazon (defined as the Brazilian states of Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Maranhao, Mato Grosso, Pará, Rondônia, Roraima, and Tocantins) covered by open woodland, secondary forests, savanna, and pasture vegetation. Results from our emissions model indicate that annual emissions from Amazon deforestation and biomass burning in the early 1990s total to 102 Tg yr-1 carbon monoxide (CO) and 3.5 Tg yr-1 nitrogen oxides (NOx). Peak daily burning emissions, which occurred in early September 1992, were estimated at slightly more than 3 Tg d-1for CO and 0.1 Tg d-1for NOx flux to the atmosphere. Other burning source fluxes of gases with relatively high emission factors are reported, including methane (CH4), nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC), and sulfur dioxide (SO2), in addition to total particulate matter (TPM). We estimate the Brazilian Amazon region to be a source of between one fifth and one third for each of these global emission fluxes to the atmosphere. The regional distribution of burning emissions appears to be highest in the Brazilian states of Maranhao and Tocantins, mainly from burning outside of moist forest areas, and in Pará and Mato Grosso, where we identify important contributions from primary forest cutting and burning. These new daily emission estimates of reactive gases from biomass burning fluxes are designed to be used as

  15. Dike Strength Analysis on a Regional Scale Based On a Stochastic Subsoil Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koelewijn, A. R.; Vastenburg, E. W.

    2013-12-01

    About two-third of the Netherlands is protected against flooding by dikes and levees. The subsoil can be characterized by fluvial and marine sediments. Maintaining the safety of these dikes and levees is of vital importance. Insufficient safety is not permissible, but excessive safety would imply a waste of money and other resources. Therefore safety assessments are carried out on a regular basis. Over the past decades, a practice has grown to calculate a limited number of cross-sections, roughly one every 500 to 1000 meters. For this purpose, a representative cross-section is selected as an estimate of the most vulnerable surface geometry and the subsoil conditions determined from boreholes and cone penetration tests, for which slope stability and piping analyses are carried out. This is a time-consuming procedure which is not only expensive, but also neglects geological knowledge. A method to incorporate geological knowledge of an area, including updating on the basis of additional investigations, has been described in Koelewijn et al. [2011]. In addition, various groups have worked to incorporate geotechnical stability models and detailed Lidar-measurements of the surface into a more efficient and rational calculation process [Knoeff et al. 2011, Lam et al. 2013, van den Ham & Mastbergen, 2013]. Combining this experience with the 3D subsoil model opens possibilities for cost-effective additional soil investigations for those locations where ruling out unfavorable conditions really influences the decisions to be made regarding rejection and improvement, see the figure for examples of different subsoil profiles along a dike. The resulting system has been applied for semi-automated calculations of dikes in various parts of the Netherlands, totalling over 4000 km by now, and a part of the Mississippi levee system. [van den Ham & Mastbergen, 2013] G.A. van den Ham & D.R. Mastbergen, A semi-probabilistic assessment method for flow slides. AGU Fall meeting, 2013

  16. Controls on groundwater flow in the Bengal Basin of India and Bangladesh: regional modeling analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, Holly A.; Voss, Clifford I.

    2009-11-01

    Groundwater for domestic and irrigation purposes is produced primarily from shallow parts of the Bengal Basin aquifer system (India and Bangladesh), which contains high concentrations of dissolved arsenic (exceeding worldwide drinking water standards), though deeper groundwater is generally low in arsenic. An essential first step for determining sustainable management of the deep groundwater resource is identification of hydrogeologic controls on flow and quantification of basin-scale groundwater flow patterns. Results from groundwater modeling, in which the Bengal Basin aquifer system is represented as a single aquifer with higher horizontal than vertical hydraulic conductivity, indicate that this anisotropy is the primary hydrogeologic control on the natural flowpath lengths. Despite extremely low hydraulic gradients due to minimal topographic relief, anisotropy implies large-scale (tens to hundreds of kilometers) flow at depth. Other hydrogeologic factors, including lateral and vertical changes in hydraulic conductivity, have minor effects on overall flow patterns. However, because natural hydraulic gradients are low, the impact of pumping on groundwater flow is overwhelming; modeling indicates that pumping has substantially changed the shallow groundwater budget and flowpaths from predevelopment conditions.

  17. Controls on groundwater flow in the Bengal Basin of India and Bangladesh: Regional modeling analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, H.A.; Voss, C.I.

    2009-01-01

    Groundwater for domestic and irrigation purposes is produced primarily from shallow parts of the Bengal Basin aquifer system (India and Bangladesh), which contains high concentrations of dissolved arsenic (exceeding worldwide drinking water standards), though deeper groundwater is generally low in arsenic. An essential first step for determining sustainable management of the deep groundwater resource is identification of hydrogeologic controls on flow and quantification of basin-scale groundwater flow patterns. Results from groundwater modeling, in which the Bengal Basin aquifer system is represented as a single aquifer with higher horizontal than vertical hydraulic conductivity, indicate that this anisotropy is the primary hydrogeologic control on the natural flowpath lengths. Despite extremely low hydraulic gradients due to minimal topographic relief, anisotropy implies large-scale (tens to hundreds of kilometers) flow at depth. Other hydrogeologic factors, including lateral and vertical changes in hydraulic conductivity, have minor effects on overall flow patterns. However, because natural hydraulic gradients are low, the impact of pumping on groundwater flow is overwhelming; modeling indicates that pumping has substantially changed the shallow groundwater budget and flowpaths from predevelopment conditions. ?? Springer-Verlag 2009.

  18. Modelling and Analysis of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Rivers in the Northern Cold Region of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Gula; Zhu, Yunqiang; Wu, Guozheng; Li, Jing; Li, Zhao-Liang; Sun, Jiulin

    2016-04-08

    In this study, the Mudan River, which is the most typical river in the northern cold region of China was selected as the research object; Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) was adopted to construct a new two-dimensional water quality model for the urban sections of the Mudan River, and concentrations of COD(Cr) and NH₃N during ice-covered and open-water periods were simulated and analyzed. Results indicated that roughness coefficient and comprehensive pollutant decay rate were significantly different in those periods. To be specific, the roughness coefficient in the ice-covered period was larger than that of the open-water period, while the decay rate within the former period was smaller than that in the latter. In addition, according to the analysis of the simulated results, the main reasons for the decay rate reduction during the ice-covered period are temperature drop, upstream inflow decrease and ice layer cover; among them, ice sheet is the major contributor of roughness increase. These aspects were discussed in more detail in this work. The model could be generalized to hydrodynamic water quality process simulation researches on rivers in other cold regions as well.

  19. Modelling and Analysis of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Rivers in the Northern Cold Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gula Tang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the Mudan River, which is the most typical river in the northern cold region of China was selected as the research object; Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC was adopted to construct a new two-dimensional water quality model for the urban sections of the Mudan River, and concentrations of CODCr and NH3N during ice-covered and open-water periods were simulated and analyzed. Results indicated that roughness coefficient and comprehensive pollutant decay rate were significantly different in those periods. To be specific, the roughness coefficient in the ice-covered period was larger than that of the open-water period, while the decay rate within the former period was smaller than that in the latter. In addition, according to the analysis of the simulated results, the main reasons for the decay rate reduction during the ice-covered period are temperature drop, upstream inflow decrease and ice layer cover; among them, ice sheet is the major contributor of roughness increase. These aspects were discussed in more detail in this work. The model could be generalized to hydrodynamic water quality process simulation researches on rivers in other cold regions as well.

  20. Spatial scale separation in regional climate modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feser, F.

    2005-07-01

    In this thesis the concept of scale separation is introduced as a tool for first improving regional climate model simulations and, secondly, to explicitly detect and describe the added value obtained by regional modelling. The basic idea behind this is that global and regional climate models have their best performance at different spatial scales. Therefore the regional model should not alter the global model's results at large scales. The for this purpose designed concept of nudging of large scales controls the large scales within the regional model domain and keeps them close to the global forcing model whereby the regional scales are left unchanged. For ensemble simulations nudging of large scales strongly reduces the divergence of the different simulations compared to the standard approach ensemble that occasionally shows large differences for the individual realisations. For climate hindcasts this method leads to results which are on average closer to observed states than the standard approach. Also the analysis of the regional climate model simulation can be improved by separating the results into different spatial domains. This was done by developing and applying digital filters that perform the scale separation effectively without great computational effort. The separation of the results into different spatial scales simplifies model validation and process studies. The search for 'added value' can be conducted on the spatial scales the regional climate model was designed for giving clearer results than by analysing unfiltered meteorological fields. To examine the skill of the different simulations pattern correlation coefficients were calculated between the global reanalyses, the regional climate model simulation and, as a reference, of an operational regional weather analysis. The regional climate model simulation driven with large-scale constraints achieved a high increase in similarity to the operational analyses for medium-scale 2 meter

  1. Assessing the effects of regional payment for watershed services program on water quality using an intervention analysis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yan; He, Tian

    2014-09-15

    Much attention has been recently paid to ex-post assessments of socioeconomic and environmental benefits of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs on poverty reduction, water quality, and forest protection. To evaluate the effects of a regional PES program on water quality, we selected chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonia-nitrogen (NH3-N) as indicators of water quality. Statistical methods and an intervention analysis model were employed to assess whether the PES program produced substantial changes in water quality at 10 water-quality sampling stations in the Shaying River watershed, China during 2006-2011. Statistical results from paired-sample t-tests and box plots of COD and NH3-N concentrations at the 10 stations showed that the PES program has played a positive role in improving water quality and reducing trans-boundary water pollution in the Shaying River watershed. Using the intervention analysis model, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of the intervention policy, i.e., the watershed PES program, on water quality at the 10 stations. The results suggest that this method could be used to assess the environmental benefits of watershed or water-related PES programs, such as improvements in water quality, seasonal flow regulation, erosion and sedimentation, and aquatic habitat. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Global dynamic analysis of a H7N9 avian-human influenza model in an outbreak region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yongxue; Wen, Yongxian

    2015-02-21

    In 2013 in China a new type of avian influenza virus, H7N9, began to infect humans and had aroused severe fatality in the infected humans. We know that the spread is from poultry to humans, and the H7N9 avian influenza is low pathogenic in the poultry world but highly pathogenic in the human world, but the transmission mechanism is unclear. Since it has no signs of human-to-human transmission and outbreaks are isolated in some cities in China, in order to investigate the transmission mechanism of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza, an eco-epidemiological model in an outbreak region is proposed and analyzed dynamically. Researches and reports show that gene mutation makes the new virus be capable of infecting humans, therefore the mutation factor is taken into account in the model. The global dynamic analysis is conducted, different thresholds are identified, persistence and global qualitative behaviors are obtained. The impact of H7N9 avian influenza on the people population is concerned. Finally, the numerical simulations are carried out to support the theoretical analysis and to investigate the disease control measures. It seems that we may take people׳s hygiene and prevention awareness factor as a significant policy to achieve the aim of both the disease control and the economic returns. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Empirical Study on Total Factor Productive Energy Efficiency in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region-Analysis based on Malmquist Index and Window Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Qiang; Ding, Shuai; An, Jingwen

    2017-12-01

    This paper studies the energy efficiency of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and to finds out the trend of energy efficiency in order to improve the economic development quality of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Based on Malmquist index and window analysis model, this paper estimates the total factor energy efficiency in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region empirically by using panel data in this region from 1991 to 2014, and provides the corresponding political recommendations. The empirical result shows that, the total factor energy efficiency in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region increased from 1991 to 2014, mainly relies on advances in energy technology or innovation, and obvious regional differences in energy efficiency to exist. Throughout the window period of 24 years, the regional differences of energy efficiency in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shrank. There has been significant convergent trend in energy efficiency after 2000, mainly depends on the diffusion and spillover of energy technologies.

  4. Multi-Scale Analysis of Regional Inequality based on Spatial Field Model: A Case Study of China from 2000 to 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shasha Lu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A large body of recent studies—from both inside and outside of China—are devoted to the understanding of China’s regional inequality. The current study introduces “the spatial field model” to achieve comprehensive evaluation and multi-scale analysis of regional inequality. The model is based on the growth pole theory, regional interaction theory, and energy space theory. The spatial field is an abstract concept that defines the potential energy difference that is formed in the process of a regional growth pole driving the economic development of peripheral areas through transportation and communication corridors. The model is able to provide potentially more precise regional inequality estimates and generates isarithmic maps that will provide highly intuitive and visualized presentations. The model is applied to evaluate the spatiotemporal pattern of economic inequality in China from 2000 to 2012 amongst internal eastern-central-western regions as well as north-south regions at three geographical scales—i.e., inter-province, inter-city, and inter-county. The results indicate that the spatial field model could comprehensively evaluate regional inequality, provide aesthetically pleasing and highly adaptable presentations based on a pixel-based raster, and realise the multi-scale analyses of the regional inequality. The paper also investigates the limitations and extensions of the spatial field model in future application.

  5. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowlands, Ian H [UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, and Univ. of Waterloo (Canada)

    1998-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the `regional` - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  6. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, Ian H.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the 'regional' - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  7. The ESASSI-08 cruise in the South Scotia Ridge region: An inverse model property-transport analysis over the Ridge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Margarita; Gomis, Damià; Del Mar Flexas, Maria; Jordà, Gabriel; Naveira-Garabato, Alberto; Jullion, Loic; Tsubouchi, Takamasa

    2010-05-01

    The ESASSI-08 oceanographic cruise carried out in January 2008 was the most significant milestone of the ESASSI project. ESASSI is the Spanish component of the Synoptic Antarctic Shelf-Slope Interactions (SASSI) study, one of the core projects of the International Polar Year. Hydrographical and biochemical (oxygen, CFCs, nutrients, chlorophyll content, alkalinity, pH, DOC) data were obtained along 11 sections in the South Scotia Ridge (SSR) region, between Elephant and South Orkney Islands. One of the aims of the ESASSI project is to determine the northward outflow of cold and ventilated waters from the Weddell Sea into the Scotia Sea. For that purpose, the accurate estimation of mass, heat, salt, and oxygen transport over the Ridge is requested. An initial analysis of transports across the different sections was first obtained from CTD and ADCP data. The following step has been the application of an inverse method, in order to obtain a better estimation of the net flow for the different water masses present in the region. The set of property-conservation equations considered by the inverse model includes mass, heat and salinity fluxes. The "box" is delimited by the sections along the northern flank of the SSR, between Elephant Island and 50°W, the southern flank of the Ridge, between 51.5°W and 50°W, the 50°W meridian and a diagonal line between Elephant Island and 51.5°W, 61.75°S. Results show that the initial calculations of transports suffered of a significant volume imbalance, due to the inherent errors of ship-ADCP data, the complicated topography and the presence of strong tidal currents in some sections. We present the post-inversion property transports across the rim of the box (and their error bars) for the different water masses.

  8. The improvement gap in energy intensity: Analysis of China's thirty provincial regions using the improved DEA (data envelopment analysis) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Ke; Lin, Boqiang

    2015-01-01

    Enacting a reduction target for energy intensity in provinces has become an important issue for the central and local governments in China. But the energy intensity index has provided little information about energy efficiency improvement potential. This study re-estimates the TFEE (total-factor energy efficiency) using an improved DEA (data envelopment analysis) model, which combines the super-efficiency and sequential DEA models to avoid “discriminating power problem” and “technical regress”, and then used it to calculated the TEI (target for energy intensity). The REI (improvement potential in energy intensity) is calculated by the difference between TEI and the actual level of energy intensity. In application, we calculate the REIs for different provinces under the metafrontier and group-frontier respectively, and their ratios are the technology gaps for energy use. The main result shows that China's REIs fluctuate around 21%, 7.5% and 12% for Eastern, Central and Western China respectively; and Eastern China has the highest level of energy technology. These findings reveal that energy intensities of China's provinces do not converge to the optimal level. Therefore, the target of energy-saving policy for regions should be enhancing the energy efficiency of the inefficient ones, and thereby reduce the gap for improvement in energy intensity across regions. - Highlights: • We present an improved DEA model to calculate the TFEE (total-factor energy efficiency). • The improved TFEE combines with a meta-frontier analysis. • We estabilish a new indicator for improvement gap in energy intensity. • Improvement in energy intensity of regions in China is analysed

  9. Spatial–Temporal Modeling for Regional Economic Development: A Quantitative Analysis with Panel Data from Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingxiao Zhang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to analyze regional economic difference and explore the influencing factors, which would eventually provide an effective foundation to narrow the regional economic differences. In this paper, a new regional economic difference model is established considering the interactions between the spatial weight and human capital and foreign direct investment (FDI. With the panel data from twelve western provinces in China, the empirical research is conducted by adopting feasible generalized least squares (FGLS fixed effects model. The preliminary results show that: (1 the spatial spillover effect of human capital and FDI is significant to the formation of regional economic difference; and (2 the total capital formation, government expenditure, FDI, human capital and patent application authorization are positively correlated with GDP growth per capita, while the number of medical institutions is negatively correlated with GDP growth per capita. In addition, the robust test is carried out for validation by using the filter variable method, spatial lag model and spatial error model. The robustness test results show that the results of the FGLS fixed effects model are validated by the filter variable method. The other two robust test results show that: (1 the total capital formation and the fixed asset investment is of 99.9% significance, which represents that they play a key role in the formation of economic development difference; and (2 the coefficients’ symbols of the other variables are consistent with the FGLS fixed effect model but a little different on the significances, which enhance the effectiveness of the proposed regional economic difference model.

  10. Inclusion of climatic and touristic factors in the analysis and modelling of the municipal water demand in a Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Elena; Bragalli, Cristiana; Neri, Mattia

    2017-04-01

    In Mediterranean regions, inherently affected by water scarcity conditions, the gap between water availability and demand may further increase in the near future due to both climatic and anthropogenic drivers. In particular, the high degree of urbanization and the concentration of population and activities in coastal areas is often severely impacting the water availability also for the residential sector. It is therefore crucial analysing the importance of both climatic and touristic factors as drivers for the water demand in such areas, to better understand and model the expected consumption in order to improve the water management policies and practices. The study presents an analysis referred to a large number of municipalities, covering almost the whole Romagna region, in Northern Italy, representing one of the most economically developed areas in Europe and characterized by an extremely profitable tourist industry, especially in the coastal cities. For this region it is therefore extremely important to assess the significance of the drivers that may influence the demand in the different periods of the year, that is climatic factors (rainfall depths and occurrence, temperature averages and extremes), but also the presence of tourists, in both official tourist accommodation structures and in holidays homes (and the latter are very difficult to estimate). Analyses on the Italian water industry at seasonal or monthly time scale has been so far, extremely limited in the literature by the scarce availability of data on the water demands, that are made public only as annual volumes. All the study municipalities are supplied by the same water company, who provided monthly consumption volumes data at the main inlet points of the entire distribution network for a period of 7 years (2009-2015). For the same period, precipitation and temperature data have been collected and summarised in indexes representing monthly averages, days of occurrence and over threshold values

  11. Analysis of a general circulation model product. I - Frontal systems in the Brazil/Malvinas and Kuroshio/Oyashio regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzoli, Silvia L.; Garraffo, Zulema; Podesta, Guillermo; Brown, Otis

    1992-01-01

    The general circulation model (GCM) of Semtner and Chervin (1992) is tested by comparing the fields produced by this model with available observations in two western boundary current regions, the Brazil/Malvinas and the Kuroshio/Oyashio confluences. The two sets of data used are the sea surface temperature from satellite observations and the temperature field product from the GCM at levels 1 (12.5 m), 2 (37.5 m), and 6 (160 m). It is shown that the model reproduces intense thermal fronts at the sea surface and in the upper layers (where they are induced by the internal dynamics of the model). The location of the fronts are reproduced in the model within 4 to 5 deg, compared with observations. However, the variability of these fronts was found to be less pronounced in the model than in the observations.

  12. Regional-Level Carbon Emissions Modelling and Scenario Analysis: A STIRPAT Case Study in Henan Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengyan Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Global warming has brought increased attention to the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development. Research on the driving factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption can provide a scientific basis for regional energy savings, as well as emissions reduction and sustainable development. Henan Province is a major agricultural province in China, and it is one of most populous provinces. Industrial development and population growth are the causes of carbon emissions. The STIRPAT model was conducted for analyzing carbon emissions and the driving factors for future carbon emission in Henan Province. The results show that: carbon emissions and energy consumption in Henan Province presented a rising trend from 1995 to 2014; Energy consumption due to population growth is the main contributor to carbon emissions in Henan Province. As every 1% increase in the population, GDP per-capita, energy intensity, and the level of urbanization development will contribute to the growth of emissions by 1.099, 0.193, 0.043, and 0.542%, respectively. The optimization of the industrial structure can reduce carbon emissions in Henan Province, as suggested by the results, when the tertiary sector increased by more than 1%, the total energy consumption of carbon emissions reduced by 1.297%. The future pattern of carbon emissions in Henan Province is predicted to increase initially and then follows by a decreasing trend, according to scenario analysis; and maintaining a low population growth rate, and a high growth rate of GDP per-capita and technical level is the best mode for social and economic development.

  13. Northeastern Brazilian margin: Regional tectonic evolution based on integrated analysis of seismic reflection and potential field data and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaich, Olav A.; Tsikalas, Filippos; Faleide, Jan Inge

    2008-10-01

    Integration of regional seismic reflection and potential field data along the northeastern Brazilian margin, complemented by crustal-scale gravity modelling, is used to reveal and illustrate onshore-offshore crustal structure correlation, the character of the continent-ocean boundary, and the relationship of crustal structure to regional variation of potential field anomalies. The study reveals distinct along-margin structural and magmatic changes that are spatially related to a number of conjugate Brazil-West Africa transfer systems, governing the margin segmentation and evolution. Several conceptual tectonic models are invoked to explain the structural evolution of the different margin segments in a conjugate margin context. Furthermore, the constructed transects, the observed and modelled Moho relief, and the potential field anomalies indicate that the Recôncavo, Tucano and Jatobá rift system may reflect a polyphase deformation rifting-mode associated with a complex time-dependent thermal structure of the lithosphere. The constructed transects and available seismic reflection profiles, indicate that the northern part of the study area lacks major breakup-related magmatic activity, suggesting a rifted non-volcanic margin affinity. In contrast, the southern part of the study area is characterized by abrupt crustal thinning and evidence for breakup magmatic activity, suggesting that this region evolved, partially, with a rifted volcanic margin affinity and character.

  14. Metallurgical source-contribution analysis of PM10 annual average concentration: A dispersion modeling approach in moravian-silesian region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Jančík

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is to present analysis of metallurgical industry contribution to annual average PM10 concentrations in Moravian-Silesian based on means of the air pollution modelling in accord with the Czech reference methodology SYMOS´97.

  15. Flood evolution assessment and monitoring using hydrological modelling techniques: analysis of the inundation areas at a regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podhoranyi, M.; Kuchar, S.; Portero, A.

    2016-08-01

    The primary objective of this study is to present techniques that cover usage of a hydrodynamic model as the main tool for monitoring and assessment of flood events while focusing on modelling of inundation areas. We analyzed the 2010 flood event (14th May - 20th May) that occurred in the Moravian-Silesian region (Czech Republic). Under investigation were four main catchments: Opava, Odra, Olše and Ostravice. Four hydrodynamic models were created and implemented into the Floreon+ platform in order to map inundation areas that arose during the flood event. In order to study the dynamics of the water, we applied an unsteady flow simulation for the entire area (HEC-RAS 4.1). The inundation areas were monitored, evaluated and recorded semi-automatically by means of the Floreon+ platform. We focused on information about the extent and presence of the flood areas. The modeled flooded areas were verified by comparing them with real data from different sources (official reports, aerial photos and hydrological networks). The study confirmed that hydrodynamic modeling is a very useful tool for mapping and monitoring of inundation areas. Overall, our models detected 48 inundation areas during the 2010 flood event.

  16. Economic differences among regional public service broadcasters in Spain according to their management model. An empirical analysis for period 2010-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Orive Serrano

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This piece of research quantifies and analyses empirically the given economic differences among public service television in Spain according to the adopted management model (classic or outsourced. Design/methodology/approach: In so doing, an average contrast of different economic variables studied in the literature is conducted (audience share, total assets, public subsidies, cost of personnel, suppliers spending and profit after taxes. In addition, these variables are related so as to calculate productivity obtained by each two groups of television operators. This analysis is conducted for period 2010-2013, featured by a crisis context in the Spanish economy. Findings: Management model adopted by each regional broadcaster impacts on different economic variables as obtained share, total assets, public subsidies, cost of personnel, suppliers spending or profit after taxes. Moreover, those public corporations adopting an outsourced management model present better productivity values. Research limitations/implications: Only one country has been analyzed for a 4 years period. Practical implications: Regional public service broadcasters with an outsourced model present less economic losses and require less public subsidies by their corresponding regional governments. Social implications: Outsourcing part of the value chain can be useful so as to guarantee sustainability of regional public service television. Originality/value: It has been proven empirically that the management model of a regional public service television impacts its economic results.

  17. THE ENVIRONMENT OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    Bechis Liviu; MOSCVICIOV Andrei

    2012-01-01

    The paper presents the difference between the two concepts regionalism and regionalization. It also presents the three types of regionalism analysis depending on the dimension and the nature of the relations: regionalism at national level, transnational regionalism and international regionalism analysis.

  18. Reasearch on Regional Differences Between China's Economic Growth and Export Trade Based on the Analysis of a Random Effects Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Chen

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the factors that influence the economic growth of the provinces of China by means of a Panel Data Model. Traditional analytical methods of economic growth are compared with a Panel Data Model. The results of empirical research indicate that the changes of fixed assets investment, gross domestic export, and macroeconomic policies will affect China's GDP. It is finally concluded that export is the driving force behind economic growth in China. This conclusion is quite different from traditional analysis.

  19. Thermal unit availability modeling in a regional simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamayee, Z.A.; Port, J.; Robinett, W.

    1983-01-01

    The System Analysis Model (SAM) developed under the umbrella of PNUCC's System Analysis Committee is capable of simulating the operation of a given load/resource scenario. This model employs a Monte-Carlo simulation to incorporate uncertainties. Among uncertainties modeled is thermal unit availability both for energy simulation (seasonal) and capacity simulations (hourly). This paper presents the availability modeling in the capacity and energy models. The use of regional and national data in deriving the two availability models, the interaction between the two and modifications made to the capacity model in order to reflect regional practices is presented. A sample problem is presented to show the modification process. Results for modeling a nuclear unit using NERC-GADS is presented

  20. Principal component analysis and neurocomputing-based models for total ozone concentration over different urban regions of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyay, Goutami; Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Chakraborthy, Parthasarathi

    2012-07-01

    The present study deals with daily total ozone concentration time series over four metro cities of India namely Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai, and New Delhi in the multivariate environment. Using the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin measure, it is established that the data set under consideration are suitable for principal component analysis. Subsequently, by introducing rotated component matrix for the principal components, the predictors suitable for generating artificial neural network (ANN) for daily total ozone prediction are identified. The multicollinearity is removed in this way. Models of ANN in the form of multilayer perceptron trained through backpropagation learning are generated for all of the study zones, and the model outcomes are assessed statistically. Measuring various statistics like Pearson correlation coefficients, Willmott's indices, percentage errors of prediction, and mean absolute errors, it is observed that for Mumbai and Kolkata the proposed ANN model generates very good predictions. The results are supported by the linearly distributed coordinates in the scatterplots.

  1. Simwe model application on susceptibility analysis to linear erosion: a case study in Alto Douro wine region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Joana; Bateira, Carlos; Soares, Laura; Faria, Ana; Moura, Rui; Gonçalves, José

    2016-04-01

    The wine production in Alto Douro Wine Region - one of the world's oldest regulated and demarcated wine region - is based on a slope system organized in agricultural terraces once supported exclusively by dry stone walls. It has been undergoing the necessary changes for the introduction of technological innovations partially associated to the mechanization of vineyards work. In this sense, different forms of terrain framing have been implemented, namely the substitution of stone walls by earth embankments. This evolution raises a group of problems related to the hydric soil erosion and landscape preservation, since Alto Douro Wine Region is classified as UNESCO World Heritage Site since 2001. The study area is mostly occupied by vineyards planted in the agriculture terraces without continuous vegetation, the flow proceeds superficially influenced by the weak infiltration capacity and hydraulic conductivity. So, because of this conditioning factor the erosive features present non-significant depth, and the length thereof is limited essentially by the slope of the land, where was registered 64 gullies and 78 rills This paper focuses on the evaluation of susceptibility to linear erosion, through the application of SIMWE (SIMulated Water Erosion), (Mitas and Mitasova, 1998), using a digital elevation model, with pixel of one square meter of spatial resolution, created through detail aerial photographs, (side pixel of 50 cm), submitted to automatic stereo-correlation procedures in Agisoft PhotoScan software. The results provided by the model are compared with hydrological characteristics of the soil, (infiltration capacity, and hydraulic conductivity), soil texture, and soil structure parameters (identified by electrical resistivity measurement) where obtained from field monitoring. This approach demonstrates an association between the spatial distribution of erosive features with high values of soil saturation, and reduced water discharge (10-110 cm3/s), that are

  2. Optimal depth-based regional frequency analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wazneh

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Classical methods of regional frequency analysis (RFA of hydrological variables face two drawbacks: (1 the restriction to a particular region which can lead to a loss of some information and (2 the definition of a region that generates a border effect. To reduce the impact of these drawbacks on regional modeling performance, an iterative method was proposed recently, based on the statistical notion of the depth function and a weight function φ. This depth-based RFA (DBRFA approach was shown to be superior to traditional approaches in terms of flexibility, generality and performance. The main difficulty of the DBRFA approach is the optimal choice of the weight function ϕ (e.g., φ minimizing estimation errors. In order to avoid a subjective choice and naïve selection procedures of φ, the aim of the present paper is to propose an algorithm-based procedure to optimize the DBRFA and automate the choice of ϕ according to objective performance criteria. This procedure is applied to estimate flood quantiles in three different regions in North America. One of the findings from the application is that the optimal weight function depends on the considered region and can also quantify the region's homogeneity. By comparing the DBRFA to the canonical correlation analysis (CCA method, results show that the DBRFA approach leads to better performances both in terms of relative bias and mean square error.

  3. Optimal depth-based regional frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wazneh, H.; Chebana, F.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

    2013-06-01

    Classical methods of regional frequency analysis (RFA) of hydrological variables face two drawbacks: (1) the restriction to a particular region which can lead to a loss of some information and (2) the definition of a region that generates a border effect. To reduce the impact of these drawbacks on regional modeling performance, an iterative method was proposed recently, based on the statistical notion of the depth function and a weight function φ. This depth-based RFA (DBRFA) approach was shown to be superior to traditional approaches in terms of flexibility, generality and performance. The main difficulty of the DBRFA approach is the optimal choice of the weight function ϕ (e.g., φ minimizing estimation errors). In order to avoid a subjective choice and naïve selection procedures of φ, the aim of the present paper is to propose an algorithm-based procedure to optimize the DBRFA and automate the choice of ϕ according to objective performance criteria. This procedure is applied to estimate flood quantiles in three different regions in North America. One of the findings from the application is that the optimal weight function depends on the considered region and can also quantify the region's homogeneity. By comparing the DBRFA to the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) method, results show that the DBRFA approach leads to better performances both in terms of relative bias and mean square error.

  4. Regional analysis of the nuclear-electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parera, M. D.

    2011-11-01

    In this study was realized a regional analysis of the Argentinean electric market contemplating the effects of regional cooperation, the internal and international interconnections; and the possibilities of insert of new nuclear power stations were evaluated in different regions of the country, indicating the most appropriate areas to carry out these facilities to increase the penetration of the nuclear energy in the national energy matrix. Also was studied the interconnection of the electricity and natural gas markets, due to the existent linking among both energy forms. With this purpose the program Message (Model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impacts) was used, promoted by the International Atomic Energy Agency. This model carries out an economic optimization level country, obtaining the minimum cost as a result for the modeling system. The division for regions realized by the Compania Administradora del Mercado Mayorista Electrico (CAMMESA) was used, which divides to the country in eight regions. They were considered the characteristics and necessities of each one of them, their respective demands and offers of electric power and natural gas, as well as their existent and projected interconnections, composed by the electric lines and gas pipes. According to the results obtained through the model, the nuclear-electricity is a competitive option. (Author)

  5. Modeling, Analysis, and Preservation Techniques for Historic Reinforced Concrete Structures in Seismic Prone Regions Case Study: Augusta Airship Hangar, Sicily

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cronin, Kelly; Whyte, Catherine; Reiner, Tom

    2008-01-01

    Throughout the world there are hundreds of historic monuments and structures considered to be invaluable and irreplaceable. They are symbols of cultural identity and a means of educating people about history. Preservation of historic monuments and structures is therefore an important part of safeguarding these cultural heritage sites so that they retain their value for future generations.This report discusses a procedure for the investigation of seismic hazards in existing buildings and possible steps that can be taken to avoid damage caused by these hazards. The Augusta Airship Hangar located in Sicily, will be used as a case study however the topics addressed in this paper can be applied to other structures of historic value around the world.First state-of-the-art scanning procedures were used to create scale digital models that were imported into a structural analysis program. Within this program dynamic analyses were performed on the model based on actual ground motions taken close to the site. This data was used to determine the period and mode shapes of the structure. Then a nonlinear analysis, including a static pushover analysis, was implemented on a two-dimensional model of the structural frame. From this analysis the failure mechanisms of the structure were revealed with relation to an allowable roof displacement. The structural integrity of the structure was evaluated based on pre-defined performance goals. Finally multiple suggestions were made how the Augusta Airship Hangar might be repaired and strengthened so that this structure will not be destroyed should an earthquake occur.The results of our study show that historic structures, despite their age, can still be strong and ductile. Also there are a multitude of effective preservation and retrofit techniques that can be used to strengthen these historic structures, should an earthquake occur. Through this study, the Augusta Airship Hangar has proven to be not only a historic symbol for Sicily but

  6. An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guel, Timur; Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal; Barreto, Leonardo

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the long-term prospects of alternative fuels in global personal transport. It aims at assessing key drivers and key bottlenecks for their deployment, focusing particularly on the role of biofuels and hydrogen in meeting climate policy objectives. The analysis is pursued using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM), a perfect foresight ''bottom-up'' model of the global energy system with a detailed representation of alternative fuel chains, linked to the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC). The analysis shows that biofuels are limited by the regional availability of low-cost biomass, but can be important for meeting mild climate policy targets. If policy-makers intend to pursue more stringent climate policy, then hydrogen becomes a competitive option. However, the analysis finds that the use of hydrogen in personal transport is restricted to very stringent climate policy, as only such policy provides enough incentive to build up the required delivery infrastructure. An analysis of costs additionally shows that ''keeping the hydrogen option open'' does not take considerable investments compared to the investment needs in the power sector within the next decades, but allows the use of hydrogen for the pursuit of stringent climate policy in the second half of the century. (author)

  7. Model, Characterization, and Analysis of Steady-State Security Region in AC/DC Power System with a Large Amount of Renewable Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhong Chen

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available A conventional steady-state power flow security check only implements point-by-point assessment, which cannot provide a security margin for system operation. The concept of a steady-state security region is proposed to effectively tackle this problem. Considering that the commissioning of the increasing number of HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current and the fluctuation of renewable energy have significantly affected the operation and control of a conventional AC system, the definition of the steady-state security region of the AC/DC power system is proposed in this paper based on the AC/DC power flow calculation model including LCC/VSC (Line Commutated Converter/Voltage Sourced Converter-HVDC transmission and various AC/DC constraints, and hence the application of the security region is extended. In order to ensure that the proposed security region can accurately provide global security information of the power system under the fluctuations of renewable energy, this paper presents four methods (i.e., a screening method of effective boundary surfaces, a fitting method of boundary surfaces, a safety judging method, and a calculation method of distances and corrected distance between the steady-state operating point and the effective boundary surfaces based on the relation analysis between the steady-state security region geometry and constraints. Also, the physical meaning and probability analysis of the corrected distance are presented. Finally, a case study is demonstrated to test the feasibility of the proposed methods.

  8. Large-scale dynamical influence of a gravity wave generated over the Antarctic Peninsula – regional modelling and budget analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOEL Arnault

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The case study of a mountain wave triggered by the Antarctic Peninsula on 6 October 2005, which has already been documented in the literature, is chosen here to quantify the associated gravity wave forcing on the large-scale flow, with a budget analysis of the horizontal wind components and horizontal kinetic energy. In particular, a numerical simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is compared to a control simulation with flat orography to separate the contribution of the mountain wave from that of other synoptic processes of non-orographic origin. The so-called differential budgets of horizontal wind components and horizontal kinetic energy (after subtracting the results from the simulation without orography are then averaged horizontally and vertically in the inner domain of the simulation to quantify the mountain wave dynamical influence at this scale. This allows for a quantitative analysis of the simulated mountain wave's dynamical influence, including the orographically induced pressure drag, the counterbalancing wave-induced vertical transport of momentum from the flow aloft, the momentum and energy exchanges with the outer flow at the lateral and upper boundaries, the effect of turbulent mixing, the dynamics associated with geostrophic re-adjustment of the inner flow, the deceleration of the inner flow, the secondary generation of an inertia–gravity wave and the so-called baroclinic conversion of energy between potential energy and kinetic energy.

  9. Analysis of high-resolution simulations for the Black Forest region from a point of view of tourism climatology - a comparison between two regional climate models (REMO and CLM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2011-03-01

    An analysis of climate simulations from a point of view of tourism climatology based on two regional climate models, namely REMO and CLM, was performed for a regional domain in the southwest of Germany, the Black Forest region, for two time frames, 1971-2000 that represents the twentieth century climate and 2021-2050 that represents the future climate. In that context, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and B1 are used. The analysis focuses on human-biometeorological and applied climatologic issues, especially for tourism purposes - that means parameters belonging to thermal (physiologically equivalent temperature, PET), physical (precipitation, snow, wind), and aesthetic (fog, cloud cover) facets of climate in tourism. In general, both models reveal similar trends, but differ in their extent. The trend of thermal comfort is contradicting: it tends to decrease in REMO, while it shows a slight increase in CLM. Moreover, REMO reveals a wider range of future climate trends than CLM, especially for sunshine, dry days, and heat stress. Both models are driven by the same global coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Because both models are not able to resolve meso- and micro-scale processes such as cloud microphysics, differences between model results and discrepancies in the development of even those parameters (e.g., cloud formation and cover) are due to different model parameterization and formulation. Climatic changes expected by 2050 are small compared to 2100, but may have major impacts on tourism as for example, snow cover and its duration are highly vulnerable to a warmer climate directly affecting tourism in winter. Beyond indirect impacts are of high relevance as they influence tourism as well. Thus, changes in climate, natural environment, demography, tourists' demands, among other things affect economy in general. The analysis of the CLM results and its comparison with the REMO results complete the analysis performed

  10. Physicochemical analysis of clays and ceramics of the regional state of Calakmul: production models, distribution and consumption; Analisis fisicoquimico de arcillas y ceramicos del estado regional de Calakmul: modelos de produccion, distribucion y consumo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dominguez C, M.R.; Folan, W.J. [Centro de Investigaciones Historicas y Sociales, Universidad Autonoma de Campeche, Campeche (Mexico); Espinosa P, M.E. [ININ, 52045 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico); Rodriguez L, V. [CUV, BUAP, 72000 Puebla (Mexico)

    2005-07-01

    This work presents the final results of the research project 'Sources, production and consumption of ceramics in the regional state of Calakmul: a socio-political approach', with the proposal of models of production and ceramic specialization as well as of distribution and consumption of these goods in the territory that occupied the regional state of Calakmul, with base in the typological analysis of the ceramics of Calakmul and 72 sites registered in its environs as well as in comparative studies with ceramics of other greater sites near Calakmul and complemented with the application of analytical techniques in the study of clays and sherds diagnoses of the Mayan Classic period. These models were proposed also, according to a socio-political approach based on the social and political relations that Calakmul maintained with other political entities of diverse ranks derived from the obtained epigraphic evidences. (Author)

  11. Cowichan Valley energy mapping and modelling. Report 4 - Analysis of opportunity costs and issues related to regional energy resilience. Final report. [Vancouver Island, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-06-15

    The driving force behind the Integrated Energy Mapping and Analysis project was the identification and analysis of a suite of pathways that the Cowichan Valley Regional District (CVRD) can utilise to increase its energy resilience, as well as reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions, with a primary focus on the residential sector. Mapping and analysis undertaken will support provincial energy and GHG reduction targets, and the suite of pathways outlined will address a CVRD internal target that calls for 75% of the region's energy within the residential sector to come from locally sourced renewables by 2050. The target has been developed as a mechanism to meet resilience and climate action target. The maps and findings produced are to be integrated as part of a regional policy framework currently under development. Based on the outputs from the first three tasks, a suite of coherent pathways towards the overall target of 75% residential local energy consumption was created, and the costs and benefits for the region were calculated. This was undertaken via a scenario analysis which also highlighted the risks and robustness of the different options within the pathways. In addition to a direct economic comparison between the different pathways, more qualitative issues were described, including potential local employment, environmental benefits and disadvantages, etc. The main tool utilised in this analysis was a tailor made Excel energy model that includes mechanisms for analysing improvements in the CVRD energy system down to an area level, for example renewable energy in residential buildings, renewable energy generation, and the effects of energy efficiency improvements. For the industrial, commercial, and transport sectors, simple and generic forecasts and input possibilities were included in the model. The Excel 'technology cost' and 'energy' models are accompanied with a user manual so that planners within the CVRD can become well

  12. Geographical data structures supporting regional analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, R.G.; Durfee, R.C.

    1978-01-01

    In recent years the computer has become a valuable aid in solving regional environmental problems. Over a hundred different geographic information systems have been developed to digitize, store, analyze, and display spatially distributed data. One important aspect of these systems is the data structure (e.g. grids, polygons, segments) used to model the environment being studied. This paper presents eight common geographic data structures and their use in studies of coal resources, power plant siting, population distributions, LANDSAT imagery analysis, and landuse analysis

  13. The Modeling of the Processes of Assessment and Analysis of the Level of Socio-Ecological-Economic Development of a Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilko Andriy D.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There presented results of the research of existing scientific and methodological, and theoretical approaches to management of the socio-ecological-economic development of a region with subsequent definition of priorities of the regional policy taking into account the concepts of security and development. Based on the study of literature sources and the analysis of the available statistical base, the problem of assessing the level of social, economic, ecological development, the level of sustainable development and the degree of harmonization of sustainable development of territorial systems of a region is formulated, and a possible method of its solution is suggested. The direction and nature of the cause-effect relationships between social tension and the levels of economic, environmental, social development and the level of sustainable development of a region are determined. There proposed a scheme to build models for assessing the effectiveness of levers for managing social, economic and environmental processes at the level of territorial systems in a region, taking into account the level of social tension and indicators of the investment component of development.

  14. Siberian Regional Identity in the Context of Historical Consciousness (Content Analysis of Tomsk Regional Media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A V Bocharov

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a model to study the Siberian regional identity in the context of historical consciousness, as well as the results of its practical application in the content analysis of the publications by the Tomsk regional media. On the basis of the content analysis procedures the author demonstrates how, through historical memory, the regional identity is formed and manifested in the regional media in various spheres of society.

  15. An Investigation into Eco-tourism Potential of the Alamut Region of Iran using SWOT Analysis Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keivan Saeb

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The present research examines the potentials and limitations of tourism in the Alamut region, offering suggestions and strategies for the promotion of tourism in this region. Research methodology adopted in this study is based on analytical-descriptive approach. To formulate and establish a sound research theoretical framework as well as to review the research literature, a questionnaire tooling method was used and the results were analyzed using the SWOT technique. While introducing the tourist attraction in the province, the influential factors in the region categorized into the four headings of: strengths; weaknesses; opportunities and threats were included in our considerations and strategies or guidelines for a sustained tourism development in the region provided. The research findings, taking into consideration the present status of the Alamut region, indicate that despite the fact that the region houses a great number of ancient sites and monuments and enjoys a high level of bio-diversity resources, making it the ideal candidate to be transformed into an exemplary tourist attraction pole, it is faced with major obstacles to reach this goal. In order to remove some of the problems of the region, strategic factors were analyzed and priorities delineated. The findings indicated that a focused attention and description of the values of the region is alleviated through the holdings of seminars or meeting and conferences as well as paving the way to give cultural knowledge and understanding to prevent inflicting widespread damages to the environment; to establish hotels; to provide welfare facilities and introduce natural resources as well as historical sites and their ancient heritage.

  16. Non-stationary analysis of dry spells in monsoon season of Senegal River Basin using data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giraldo Osorio, J. D.; García Galiano, S. G.

    2012-07-01

    SummaryThe Senegal River Basin, located in West Africa, has been affected by several droughts since the end of the 1960s. In its valley, which is densely populated and highly vulnerable to climate variability and water availability, agricultural activities provide the livelihood for thousands of people. Increasing the knowledge about plausible trends of drought events will allow to improve the adaptation and mitigation measures in order to build "adaptive capacity" to climate change in West Africa. An innovative methodology for the non-stationary analysis of droughts events, which allows the prediction of regional trends associated to several return periods, is presented. The analyses were based on Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provided by the European ENSEMBLES project for West Africa, together with observed data. A non-stationary behaviour of the annual series of maximum length of dry spells (AMDSL) in the monsoon season is reflected in temporal changes in mean and variance. The non-stationary nature of hydrometeorological series, due to climate change and anthropogenic activities, is the main criticism to traditional frequency analysis. Therefore, in this paper, the modelling tool GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape), is applied to develop regional probability density functions (pdfs) fitted to AMDSL series for the monsoon season in the Senegal River Basin. The skills of RCMs in the representation of maximum length of dry spells observed for the period 1970-1990, are evaluated considering observed data. Based on the results obtained, a first selection of the RCMs with which to apply GAMLSS to the AMDSL series identified, for the time period 1970-2050, is made. The results of GAMLSS analysis exhibit divergent trends, with different value ranges for parameters of probability distributions being detected. Therefore, in the second stage of the paper, regional pdfs are constructed using bootstrapping distributions based on probabilistic

  17. Evaluation of regional and local atmospheric dispersion models for the analysis of traffic-related air pollution in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallah-Shorshani, Masoud; Shekarrizfard, Maryam; Hatzopoulou, Marianne

    2017-10-01

    Dispersion of road transport emissions in urban metropolitan areas is typically simulated using Gaussian models that ignore the turbulence and drag induced by buildings, which are especially relevant for areas with dense downtown cores. To consider the effect of buildings, street canyon models are used but often at the level of single urban corridors and small road networks. In this paper, we compare and validate two dispersion models with widely varying algorithms, across a modelling domain consisting of the City of Montreal, Canada accounting for emissions of more 40,000 roads. The first dispersion model is based on flow decomposition into the urban canopy sub-flow as well as overlying airflow. It takes into account the specific height and geometry of buildings along each road. The second model is a Gaussian puff dispersion model, which handles complex terrain and incorporates three-dimensional meteorology, but accounts for buildings only through variations in the initial vertical mixing coefficient. Validation against surface observations indicated that both models under-predicted measured concentrations. Average weekly exposure surfaces derived from both models were found to be reasonably correlated (r = 0.8) although the Gaussian dispersion model tended to underestimate concentrations around the roadways compared to the street canyon model. In addition, both models were used to estimate exposures of a representative sample of the Montreal population composed of 1319 individuals. Large differences were noted whereby exposures derived from the Gaussian puff model were significantly lower than exposures derived from the street canyon model, an expected result considering the concentration of population around roadways. These differences have large implications for the analyses of health effects associated with NO2 exposure.

  18. 3-D modelling and analysis of Dst C-responses in the North Pacific Ocean region, revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuvshinov, A.; Utada, H.; Avdeev, D.

    2005-01-01

    models that are as realistic and detailed as possible. In order to perform the simulations using realistic 3-D models on a routine basis a novel 3-D 'spherical' forward solution has been elaborated in this paper. The solution combines the modified iterative-dissipative method with a conjugate gradient...

  19. Users guide to REGIONAL-1: a regional assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, W.E.; Eadie, W.J.; Powell, D.C.

    1979-09-01

    A guide was prepared to allow a user to run the PNL long-range transport model, REGIONAL 1. REGIONAL 1 is a computer model set up to run atmospheric assessments on a regional basis. The model has the capability of being run in three modes for a single time period. The three modes are: (1) no deposition, (2) dry deposition, (3) wet and dry deposition. The guide provides the physical and mathematical basis used in the model for calculating transport, diffusion, and deposition for all three modes. Also the guide includes a program listing with an explanation of the listings and an example in the form of a short-term assessment for 48 hours. The purpose of the example is to allow a person who has past experience with programming and meteorology to operate the assessment model and compare his results with the guide results. This comparison will assure the user that the program is operating in a proper fashion

  20. A novel porcine model of implant associated osteomyelitis: a comprehensive analysis of local, regional and systemic response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Louise Kruse; Koch, Janne; Dich-Jorgensen, Kirstine

    2017-01-01

    Pigs are favorable experimental animals for infectious diseases in humans. However, implant associated osteomyelitis (IAO) models in pigs have only been evaluated using high-inoculum infection (>108 CFU) models in 1975 and 1993. Therefore, the aim of this paper was to present a new low inoculum...... porcine model of human IAO based on 42 experimental pigs. The model was created by drilling an implant cavity in the tibial bone followed by insertion of a small steel implant and simultaneous inoculation of Staphylococcus aureus bacteria (n = 32) or saline (n = 10). The infected pigs were either...... inoculated with 104 CFU (n = 26) or 102 and 103 CFU (n = 6). All animals were euthanized five days after insertion of implants. Pigs receiving the high-inoculum infections showed a significantly higher volume of bone lesion, number of neutrophils around the implant, concentrations of acute phase proteins...

  1. The global burden of snakebite: a literature analysis and modelling based on regional estimates of envenoming and deaths.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anuradhani Kasturiratne

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Envenoming resulting from snakebites is an important public health problem in many tropical and subtropical countries. Few attempts have been made to quantify the burden, and recent estimates all suffer from the lack of an objective and reproducible methodology. In an attempt to provide an accurate, up-to-date estimate of the scale of the global problem, we developed a new method to estimate the disease burden due to snakebites. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The global estimates were based on regional estimates that were, in turn, derived from data available for countries within a defined region. Three main strategies were used to obtain primary data: electronic searching for publications on snakebite, extraction of relevant country-specific mortality data from databases maintained by United Nations organizations, and identification of grey literature by discussion with key informants. Countries were grouped into 21 distinct geographic regions that are as epidemiologically homogenous as possible, in line with the Global Burden of Disease 2005 study (Global Burden Project of the World Bank. Incidence rates for envenoming were extracted from publications and used to estimate the number of envenomings for individual countries; if no data were available for a particular country, the lowest incidence rate within a neighbouring country was used. Where death registration data were reliable, reported deaths from snakebite were used; in other countries, deaths were estimated on the basis of observed mortality rates and the at-risk population. We estimate that, globally, at least 421,000 envenomings and 20,000 deaths occur each year due to snakebite. These figures may be as high as 1,841,000 envenomings and 94,000 deaths. Based on the fact that envenoming occurs in about one in every four snakebites, between 1.2 million and 5.5 million snakebites could occur annually. CONCLUSIONS: Snakebites cause considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. The

  2. A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

    2011-07-01

    Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Global fund financing to the 34 malaria-eliminating countries under the new funding model 2014-2017: an analysis of national allocations and regional grants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelman, Brittany; Melgar, Melissa; Larson, Erika; Phillips, Allison; Shretta, Rima

    2016-02-25

    The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (GFATM) has been the largest financial supporter of malaria since 2002. In 2011, the GFATM transitioned to a new funding model (NFM), which prioritizes grants to high burden, lower income countries. This shift raises concerns that some low endemic countries, dependent on GFATM financing to achieve their malaria elimination goals, would receive less funding under the NFM. This study aims to understand the projected increase or decrease in national and regional funding from the GFATM's NFM to the 34 malaria-eliminating countries. Average annual disbursements under the old funding model were compared to average annual national allocations for all eligible 34 malaria-eliminating countries for the period of 2014-2017. Regional grant funding to countries that are due to receive additional support was then included in the comparison and analysed. Estimated funding ranges for the countries under the NFM were calculated using the proposed national allocation plus the possible adjustments and additional funding. Finally, the minimum and maximum funding estimates were compared to average annual disbursements under the old funding model. A cumulative 31 % decrease in national financing from the GFATM is expected for the countries included in this analysis. Regional grants augment funding for almost half of the eliminating countries, and increase the cumulative percent change in GTFAM funding to 32 %, though proposed activities may not be funded directly through national malaria programmes. However, if countries receive the maximum possible funding, 46 % of the countries included in this analysis would receive less than they received under the previous funding model. Many malaria-eliminating countries have projected national declines in funding from the GFATM under the NFM. While regional grants enhance funding for eliminating countries, they may not be able to fill country-level funding gaps for local commodities and

  4. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Samoa

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at approximately 3-km resolution. While considerable...

  5. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 6-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding Guam at approximately 2-km resolution. While considerable effort has been...

  6. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the island of Oahu at approximately 1-km resolution. While considerable...

  7. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): CNMI

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) at approximately...

  8. Efficient strategies for the integration of renewable energy into future energy infrastructures in Europe – An analysis based on transnational modeling and case studies for nine European regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boie, Inga; Fernandes, Camila; Frías, Pablo; Klobasa, Marian

    2014-01-01

    As a result of the current international climate change strategy, the European Commission has agreed on ambitious targets to reduce CO 2 emissions by more than 80% until 2050 as compared to 1990 levels and to increase the share of renewable energy and improve energy efficiency by 20% until 2020. Under this framework, renewable energy generation has increased considerably in the EU and it is expected to keep growing in the future years. This paper presents long-term strategies for transmission infrastructure development to integrate increasing amounts of renewable generation in the time horizon of 2030–2050. These are part of the outcomes of the SUSPLAN project, which focuses on four possible future renewable deployment scenarios in different European regions taking into account the corresponding infrastructure needs, especially electricity and gas grids, both on regional and transnational level. The main objective of the project is the development of guidelines for the integration of renewable energy into future energy infrastructures while taking account of national and regional characteristics. Therefore, the analysis is based on a two-track approach: A transnational modeling exercise (“top-down”) and in-depth case studies for nine representative European regions (“bottom-up”). - Highlights: • We present the main outcomes of the SUSPLAN EU project. • It assesses long-term energy infrastructure needs to integrate RES in Europe. • Regional and transnational analyses are performed for 4 RES scenarios until 2050. • Major barriers to the integration of RES into energy infrastructure are identified. • Efficient strategies to mitigate these barriers are proposed

  9. Models for Sustainable Regional Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China.......The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China....

  10. Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

    2003-01-01

    An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km...

  11. Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth in the North Africa Region: Cointegration Panel Analysis by DOLS and FMOLS Models

    OpenAIRE

    KHATTAB, Ahmed; IHADIYAN, Abid

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. This article aims at examining the impact of financial liberalization on the economic growth in the North African countries. The econometric study, which covers the period between 1995 and 2013, relies on a sample composed of four Northern African countries and referring to the database of the World Bank data (2013), Heritage Foundation (2013) and Financial Openness of (the Institute for international and development Economics, 2009). The estimate model of cointegration panel reveal...

  12. [Morphological analysis of the hippocampal region associated with an innate behaviour task in the transgenic mouse model (3xTg-AD) for Alzheimer disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orta-Salazar, E; Feria-Velasco, A; Medina-Aguirre, G I; Díaz-Cintra, S

    2013-10-01

    Different animal models for Alzheimer disease (AD) have been designed to support the hypothesis that the neurodegeneration (loss of neurons and synapses with reactive gliosis) associated with Aβ and tau deposition in these models is similar to that in the human brain. These alterations produce functional changes beginning with decreased ability to carry out daily and social life activities, memory loss, and neuropsychiatric disorders in general. Neuronal alteration plays an important role in early stages of the disease, especially in the CA1 area of hippocampus in both human and animal models. Two groups (WT and 3xTg-AD) of 11-month-old female mice were used in a behavioural analysis (nest building) and a morphometric analysis of the CA1 region of the dorsal hippocampus. The 3xTg-AD mice showed a 50% reduction in nest quality associated with a significant increase in damaged neurons in the CA1 hippocampal area (26%±6%, Pde Neurología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  13. Diurnal variations of wildfire emissions in Europe: analysis of the MODIS and SEVIRI measurements in the framework of the regional scale air pollution modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konovalov, Igor B.; Beekmann, Matthias; Kaiser, Johannes W.; Shudyaev, Anton A.; Yurova, Alla; Kuznetsova, Irina N.

    2013-04-01

    Wildfires episodically provide a major contribution to air pollution in many regions of the world. For example, the extreme air pollution level and strongly reduced visibility were observed in the Central European region of Russia during the intensive wildfire events in summer of 2010. Such episodes provide a strong impetus for further developments in air pollution modeling, aimed at improving the ability of chemistry transport models to simulate and predict evolution of atmospheric composition affected by wildfires. The main goals of our study are (1) to investigate the diurnal cycles of air pollutant emissions from wildfires in several European regions, taking into account the fire radiative power (FRP) satellite measurements for different vegetation land cover types and (2) to examine the possibilities of improving air pollution simulations by assimilating the diurnal variability of the FRP measurements performed by the polar orbiting (MODIS) and geostationary (SEVIRI) satellite instruments into a chemistry transport model. These goals are addressed for the case of wildfires occurred in summer 2010. The analysis of both the MODIS and SEVIRI data indicate that air pollutant emissions from wildfires in Europe in summer 2010 were typically much larger during daytime than during nighttime. The important exception is intensive fires around Moscow, featuring an almost "flat" diurnal cycle. These findings confirm the similar results reported earlier [1] but also extend them by attributing the flat diurnal cycle only to forest fires and by examining a hypothetical association of the "abnormal" diurnal cycle of FRP with peat fires. The derived diurnal variations of wildfire emissions have been used in the framework of the modeling system employed in our previous studies of the atmospheric effects of the 2010 Russian wildfires [2, 3]. The numerical experiments reveal that while the character of the diurnal variation of wildfire emissions has a rather small impact on the

  14. Exploring the physical controls of regional patterns of flow duration curves – Part 4: A synthesis of empirical analysis, process modeling and catchment classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sivapalan

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper reports on a four-pronged study of the physical controls on regional patterns of the flow duration curve (FDC. This involved a comparative analysis of long-term continuous data from nearly 200 catchments around the US, encompassing a wide range of climates, geology, and ecology. The analysis was done from three different perspectives – statistical analysis, process-based modeling, and data-based classification – followed by a synthesis, which is the focus of this paper. Streamflow data were separated into fast and slow flow responses, and associated signatures, and both total flow and its components were analyzed to generate patterns. Regional patterns emerged in all aspects of the study. The mixed gamma distribution described well the shape of the FDC; regression analysis indicated that certain climate and catchment properties were first-order controls on the shape of the FDC. In order to understand the spatial patterns revealed by the statistical study, and guided by the hypothesis that the middle portion of the FDC is a function of the regime curve (RC, mean within-year variation of flow, we set out to classify these catchments, both empirically and through process-based modeling, in terms of their regime behavior. The classification analysis showed that climate seasonality and aridity, either directly (empirical classes or through phenology (vegetation processes, were the dominant controls on the RC. Quantitative synthesis of these results determined that these classes were indeed related to the FDC through its slope and related statistical parameters. Qualitative synthesis revealed much diversity in the shapes of the FDCs even within each climate-based homogeneous class, especially in the low-flow tails, suggesting that catchment properties may have become the dominant controls. Thus, while the middle portion of the FDC contains the average response of the catchment, and is mainly controlled by climate, the tails of the FDC

  15. Geomorphological analysis, monitoring and modeling of large rock avalanches in northern Chile (Iquique area) for regional hazard assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yugsi Molina, F. X.; Hermanns, R. L.; Crosta, G. B.; Dehls, J.; Sosio, R.; Sepúlveda, S. A.

    2012-04-01

    mapped characterized by well defined lateral levees and clear internal morphological features (ridges and furrows, hummocks). Rock avalanche run out simulations have been carried out to back analyze the sites using DAN 3D and a 3 m pixel resolution digital elevation model (DEM) obtained from stereoscopic Geoeye-1 images to assess parameters that controlled propagation mechanism and impact area extent of the events. The older lobes were dated by radiocarbon methods. Results indicate ages higher than 40,000 yr BP for the northern site. The second site could only be dated relatively with an underlying terrace that resulted older than the age limit of radiocarbon dating (43.500 yr BP). All the deposits are positioned well above (40-70 m) the present sea level rise, and at the reported uplift rates for the area, they could be associated to events older than some hundreds of thousand years. A more complete record of the failure history of the sites will be obtained when results of cosmogenic nuclides (CN) and luminescence dating will become available later this year. Several other smaller rock avalanches have been mapped in the study area. Satellite-based radar interferometry (InSAR) was performed using ERS-1 and ERS-2 scenes from 1995-2000 as well as ENVISAT ASAR scenes from 2004-2010. Both datasets show only small deformation in the area. This deformation includes sliding of small surficial slope deposits and subsidence apparently due to local groundwater withdrawal. No deformation of bedrock along the escarpment edge is observed. Results show that only major rock avalanches could reach the main access roads to Iquique and currently no large slope segments show signs of large displacement rates. Moreover, there is no strong correlation between M > 8 earthquakes return periods and age of the dated deposits, which implies that large rock avalanches could have been triggered by other factors. Hence, from a hazard and risk perspective, it is unlikely that large rock avalanches

  16. Analysis of regional climate strategies in the Barents region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Himanen, S.; Inkeroeinen, J.; Latola, K.; Vaisanen, T.; Alasaarela, E.

    2012-11-15

    Climate change is a global phenomenon with especially harsh effects on the Arctic and northern regions. The Arctic's average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as elsewhere in the past few decades. Since 1966, the Arctic land area covered by snow in early summer has shrunk by almost a fifth. The Barents Region consists of the northern parts of Norway, Sweden, Finland and Russia (i.e. the European part of Russia). Climate change will cause serious impacts in the Barents Region because of its higher density of population living under harsh climatic conditions, thus setting it apart from other Arctic areas. In many cases, economic activities, like tourism, rely on certain weather conditions. For this reason, climate change and adaptation to it is of special urgency for the region. Regional climate change strategies are important tools for addressing mitigation and adaptation to climate change as they can be used to consolidate the efforts of different stakeholders of the public and private sectors. Regional strategies can be important factors in achieving the national and international goals. The study evaluated how the national climate change goals were implemented in the regional and local strategies and programmes in northern Finland. The specific goal was to describe the processes by which the regional strategies were prepared and implemented, and how the work was expanded to include the whole of northern Finland. Finally, the Finnish preparatory processes were compared to case examples of processes for preparing climate change strategies elsewhere in the Barents Region. This analysis provides examples of good practices in preparing a climate change strategy and implementing it. (orig.)

  17. Process analysis of regional ozone formation over the Yangtze River Delta, China using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Li

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available A high O3 episode was detected in urban Shanghai, a typical city in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD region in August 2010. The CMAQ integrated process rate method is applied to account for the contribution of different atmospheric processes during the high pollution episode. The analysis shows that the maximum concentration of ozone occurs due to transport phenomena, including vertical diffusion and horizontal advective transport. Gas-phase chemistry producing O3 mainly occurs at the height of 300–1500 m, causing a strong vertical O3 transport from upper levels to the surface layer. The gas-phase chemistry is an important sink for O3 in the surface layer, coupled with dry deposition. Cloud processes may contribute slightly to the increase of O3 due to convective clouds or to the decrease of O3 due to scavenging. The horizontal diffusion and heterogeneous chemistry contributions are negligible during the whole episode. Modeling results show that the O3 pollution characteristics among the different cities in the YRD region have both similarities and differences. During the buildup period, the O3 starts to appear in the city regions of the YRD and is then transported to the surrounding areas under the prevailing wind conditions. The O3 production from photochemical reaction in Shanghai and the surrounding area is most significant, due to the high emission intensity in the large city; this ozone is then transported out to sea by the westerly wind flow, and later diffuses to rural areas like Chongming island, Wuxi and even to Nanjing. The O3 concentrations start to decrease in the cities after sunset, due to titration of the NO emissions, but ozone can still be transported and maintain a significant concentration in rural areas and even regions outside the YRD region, where the NO emissions are very small.

  18. MOVES2010a regional level sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-10

    This document discusses the sensitivity of various input parameter effects on emission rates using the US Environmental Protection Agencys (EPAs) MOVES2010a model at the regional level. Pollutants included in the study are carbon monoxide (CO),...

  19. FORMATION OF A INNOVATION REGIONAL CLUSTER MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Merzlikina

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. As a result of investigation of science and methodical approaches related problems of building and development of innovation clusters there were some issues in functional assignments of innovation and production clusters. Because of those issues, article’s authors differ conceptions of innovation cluster and production cluster, as they explain notion of innovation-production cluster. The main goal of this article is to reveal existing organizational issues in cluster building and its successful development. Based on regional clusters building analysis carried out there was typical practical structure of cluster members interaction revealed. This structure also have its cons, as following: absence cluster orientation to marketing environment, lack of members’ prolonged relations’ building and development system, along with ineffective management of information, financial and material streams within cluster, narrow competence difference and responsibility zones between cluster members, lack of transparence of cluster’s action, low environment changes adaptivity, hard to use cluster members’ intellectual property, and commercialization of hi-tech products. When all those issues listed above come together, it reduces life activity of existing models of innovative cluster-building along with practical opportunity of cluster realization. Because of that, authors offer an upgraded innovative-productive cluster building model with more efficient business processes management system, which includes advanced innovative cluster structure, competence matrix and subcluster responsibility zone. Suggested model differs from other ones by using unified innovative product development control center, which also controls production and marketing realization.

  20. Models of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

    2013-01-01

    The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

  1. Regional transport model of atmospheric sulfates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, K.S.; Thomson, I.; Egan, B.A.

    1977-01-01

    As part of the Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE) Design Project, a regional transport model of atmospheric sulfates has been developed. This quasi-Lagrangian three-dimensional grid numerical model uses a detailed SO 2 emission inventory of major anthropogenic sources in the Eastern U.S. region, and observed meteorological data during an episode as inputs. The model accounts for advective transport and turbulent diffusion of the pollutants. The chemical transformation of SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ and the deposition of the species at the earth's surface are assumed to be linear processes at specified constant rates. The numerical model can predict the daily average concentrations of SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ at all receptor locations in the grid region during the episode. Because of the spatial resolution of the grid, this model is particularly suited to investigate the effect of tall stacks in reducing the ambient concentration levels of sulfur pollutants. This paper presents the formulations and assumptions of the regional sulfate transport model. The model inputs and results are discussed. Isopleths of predicted SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ concentrations are compared with the observed ground level values. The bulk of the information in this paper is directed to air pollution meteorologists and environmental engineers interested in the atmospheric transport modeling studies of sulfur oxide pollutants

  2. Regional analysis and environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parzyck, D.C.; Brocksen, R.W.; Emanuel, W.R.

    1976-01-01

    This paper presents a number of techniques that can be used to assess environmental impacts on a regional scale. Regional methodologies have been developed which examine impacts upon aquatic and terrestrial biota in regions through consideration of changes in land use, land cover, air quality, water resource use, and water quality. Techniques used to assess long-range atmospheric transport, water resources, effects on sensitive forest and animal species, and impacts on man are presented in this paper, along with an optimization approach which serves to integrate the analytical techniques in an overall assessment framework. A brief review of the research approach and certain modeling techniques used within one regional studies program is provided. While it is not an all inclusive report on regional analyses, it does present an illustration of the types of analyses that can be performed on a regional scale

  3. Models of Regional Modernization of the Donbass Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantin Viktorovich Pavlov

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the methodical approach to the assessment of a level of development of post-industrial and neoindustrial models of economic modernization in regional aspect on the basis of various indicators. The proposed approach is approved with use of the statistical materials characterizing the state of economy in the regions of Donbass. The strategy of development of Donbass areas and their industrial cities would have to be based (we mean the situation if there were no military operations on this territory on the basis of the model of neoindustrialization assuming development of the sphere of the hi-tech industry, automation and a computerization of productive forces, replacement of physical work by intellectual labor that is radically capable to change nature of work and structure of labor balance of this macro-region. Branches and sectors of a socio-economic complex of the Donbass region using achievements of fundamental and applied science, engineering and design thought for increase in a share of automation, a computerization and mechanization of workplaces, physical and brainwork prior to the beginning of a political conflict in Ukraine have the potential of development. The authors also pay attention to need of studying the agglomerative effect from interaction of the cities and areas of the Donbass euroregion. It is connected, first of all, with development of vertical and horizontal mechanisms of active use of potential of so-called “cities-kernels”, capable to make the catalyzing impact on production, social infrastructure, creation and development of new perspective branches in the cities-satellites.

  4. Energy and externality environmental regional model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldi, L.; Bianchi, A.; Peri, M.

    2000-01-01

    The use of environmental externalities in both territorial management and the direction of energy and environment, faces the difficulties arising from their calculation. The so-called MACBET regional model, which has been constructed for Lombardy, is a first brand new attempt to overcome them. MACBET is a calculation model to assess environmental and employment externalities connected to energy use [it

  5. Modeling and direct sensitivity analysis of biogenic emissions impacts on regional ozone formation in the Mexico-U.S. border area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-Dominguez, A; Wilkinson, J G; Yang, Y J; Russell, A G

    2000-01-01

    A spatially and temporally resolved biogenic hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions inventory has been developed for a region along the Mexico-U.S. border area. Average daily biogenic non-methane organic gases (NMOG) emissions for the 1700 x 1000 km2 domain were estimated at 23,800 metric tons/day (62% from Mexico and 38% from the United States), and biogenic NOx was estimated at 1230 metric tons/day (54% from Mexico and 46% from the United States) for the July 18-20, 1993, ozone episode. The biogenic NMOG represented 74% of the total NMOG emissions, and biogenic NOx was 14% of the total NOx. The CIT photochemical airshed model was used to assess how biogenic emissions impact air quality. Predicted ground-level ozone increased by 5-10 ppb in most rural areas, 10-20 ppb near urban centers, and 20-30 ppb immediately downwind of the urban centers compared to simulations in which only anthropogenic emissions were used. A sensitivity analysis of predicted ozone concentration to emissions was performed using the decoupled direct method for three dimensional air quality models (DDM-3D). The highest positive sensitivity of ground-level ozone concentration to biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions (i.e., increasing biogenic VOC emissions results in increasing ozone concentrations) was predicted to be in locations with high NOx levels, (i.e., the urban areas). One urban center--Houston--was predicted to have a slight negative sensitivity to biogenic NO emissions (i.e., increasing biogenic NO emissions results in decreasing local ozone concentrations). The highest sensitivities of ozone concentrations to on-road mobile source VOC emissions, all positive, were mainly in the urban areas. The highest sensitivities of ozone concentrations to on-road mobile source NOx emissions were predicted in both urban (either positive or negative sensitivities) and rural (positive sensitivities) locations.

  6. Analysis of regional total factor energy efficiency in China under environmental constraints: based on undesirable-minds and DEA window model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shuying; Li, Deshan; Li, Shuangqiang; Jiang, Hanyu; Shen, Yuqing

    2017-06-01

    With China’s entrance into the new economy, the improvement of energy efficiency has become an important indicator to measure the quality of ecological civilization construction and economic development. According to the panel data of Chinese regions in 1996-2014, the nearest distance to the efficient frontier of Undesirable-MinDS Xeon model and DEA window model have been used to calculate the total factor energy efficiency of China’s regions. Study found that: Under environmental constraints, China’s total factor energy efficiency has increased after the first drop in the overall 1996-2014, and then increases again. And the difference between the regions is very large, showing a characteristic of “the east is the highest, the west is lower, and lowest is in the central” finally, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions.

  7. Regional Convergence of Income: Spatial Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Ivanovna Ivanova

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Russia has a huge territory and a strong interregional heterogeneity, so we can assume that geographical factors have a significant impact on the pace of economic growth in Russian regions. Therefore the article is focused on the following issues: 1 correlation between comparative advantages of geographical location and differences in growth rates; 2 impact of more developed regions on their neighbors and 3 correlation between economic growth of regions and their spatial interaction. The article is devoted to the empirical analysis of regional per capita incomes from 1996 to 2012 and explores the dynamics of the spatial autocorrelation of regional development indicator. It is shown that there is a problem of measuring the intensity of spatial dependence: factor value of Moran’s index varies greatly depending on the choice of the matrix of distances. In addition, with the help of spatial econometrics the author tests the following hypotheses: 1 there is convergence between regions for a specified period; 2 the process of beta convergence is explained by the spatial arrangement of regions and 3 there is positive impact of market size on regional growth. The author empirically confirmed all three hypotheses

  8. Analysis of the Effects of SST and Model Resolutions on the Identification of the 1993 Superstorm Using an Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Regional System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aktas, D.; Velissariou, P.; Chassignet, E.; Bourassa, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    The non-tropical storm, the 12-14 March 1993 Superstorm, which called the Storm of the Century had a wide reaching effect on the Northern Gulf of Mexico region and the East Coast of the United States. Previous studies show that the initial development of the storm could not be simulated accurately enough to represent the intensity and the evolution of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico region. The aim of this study is to identify the effects of the air-sea fluxes, the sea surface temperature (SST) and the model resolution on determining the intensity and the track of the storm more accurately. To this end, the outputs from two-way coupled model runs were examined to analyze the storm characteristics. Model configurations have been set within a coupled system framework that includes the atmospheric model Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) and the ocean model Regional Ocean Model (ROMS). Three WRF domains assigned 15 km, 5 km and ~1.6 km resolutions, respectively and an 8 km resolution ROMS domain were used in the coupled system. The initial and boundary conditions for WRF were extracted from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) products and the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) generated SSTs while, the conditions for ROMS were extracted from HYCOM. Comparisons were performed against NOAA buoys and GridSAT brightness temperatures. Minimum mean sea level pressure (MSLP), maximum wind speed and storm locations were examined. Time series for MSLP and wind speed were used to illustrate how air-sea interaction and resolution changes storm intensity along the track. The results showing the RMS differences on the storm location and intensity of the storm are also presented.

  9. Groundwater flow reference model of the Meuse/Haute-Marne region: implications on performance analysis of high and intermediate level and long lived radwaste repository in clay formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benabderrahmane, H.; Plas, F.; Yven, B.; Cornaton, F.; Perrochet, P.; Kerrou, J.; Stucki, J.; Caloz, P.

    2010-01-01

    flow conditions at the bottom and at the sides of the model. - Volumetric extraction due to pumping in the Albian aquifer in the Paris region (50'000 m 3 /day). The regional flow model was calibrated with neutral faults against 1255 measured hydraulic heads. Top surface head conditions were evaluated by calibrating the inflow fluxes and the hydraulic conductivity distribution of the outcropping formations using 400 head measurements. The mean discrepancy between the measured and computed values is less than 9 m. At local scale, a reference flow model of the Oxfordian and Dogger aquifers, respectively overlaying and underlaying the Callovo-Oxfordian host formation, is calibrated against measured hydraulic heads at Andra boreholes and the flow fields of these aquifers at sector scale derived from hydrogeologic, geologic and seismic data acquired from the last site investigation campaign (2007-2008). It includes the hydraulically active faults of Marne and Poissons as well as the less active faults of Gondrecourt. The parameterization that characterize the hydrogeological role of these faults leads to the calibration of the flow with a mean discrepancy between computed and measured values less than 3 m. The performance analysis of the repository emplacement within the 250 km 2 Andra site area was carried out using the stationary velocity field of this reference flow model and computing (i) the travel time and cumulative distance of purely advective particle trajectories and (ii) the lifetime expectancy of water molecules crossing the waste repository and migrating by hydro-dispersive motion (advection, dispersion and diffusion) through the 3-D structures towards the outlets of the aquifer system, using the method proposed by Cornaton and Perrochet. The corrosion of metals contained in intermediate level waste under reduced chemical conditions will lead to the production of hydrogen gas during the post closure phase of a radioactive waste repository. A rough

  10. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ACOUSTIC WAVE PARAMETERS NEAR SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabello-Soares, M. Cristina; Bogart, Richard S.; Scherrer, Philip H.

    2016-01-01

    In order to quantify the influence of magnetic fields on acoustic mode parameters and flows in and around active regions, we analyze the differences in the parameters in magnetically quiet regions nearby an active region (which we call “nearby regions”), compared with those of quiet regions at the same disk locations for which there are no neighboring active regions. We also compare the mode parameters in active regions with those in comparably located quiet regions. Our analysis is based on ring-diagram analysis of all active regions observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) during almost five years. We find that the frequency at which the mode amplitude changes from attenuation to amplification in the quiet nearby regions is around 4.2 mHz, in contrast to the active regions, for which it is about 5.1 mHz. This amplitude enhacement (the “acoustic halo effect”) is as large as that observed in the active regions, and has a very weak dependence on the wave propagation direction. The mode energy difference in nearby regions also changes from a deficit to an excess at around 4.2 mHz, but averages to zero over all modes. The frequency difference in nearby regions increases with increasing frequency until a point at which the frequency shifts turn over sharply, as in active regions. However, this turnover occurs around 4.9 mHz, which is significantly below the acoustic cutoff frequency. Inverting the horizontal flow parameters in the direction of the neigboring active regions, we find flows that are consistent with a model of the thermal energy flow being blocked directly below the active region.

  11. Assessment of homogeneity of regions for regional flood frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jeong Eun; Kim, Nam Won

    2016-04-01

    This paper analyzed the effect of rainfall on hydrological similarity, which is an important step for regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA). For the RFFA, storage function method (SFM) using spatial extension technique was applied for the 22 sub-catchments that are partitioned from Chungju dam watershed in Republic of Korea. We used the SFM to generate the annual maximum floods for 22 sub-catchments using annual maximum storm events (1986~2010) as input data. Then the quantiles of rainfall and flood were estimated using the annual maximum series for the 22 sub-catchments. Finally, spatial variations in terms of two quantiles were analyzed. As a result, there were significant correlation between spatial variations of the two quantiles. This result demonstrates that spatial variation of rainfall is an important factor to explain the homogeneity of regions when applying RFFA. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  12. Avaliação do modelo regional eta utilizando as análises do CPTEC e NCEP Evaluation of the eta regional model using the analysis of CPTEC and NCEP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rildo Gonçalves de Moura

    2010-03-01

    evaluated the forecasts of precipitation and mean sea level pressure for the period up to 120 hours, using the mean error (ME and the root mean squared error (RMSE from December 2007 to February 2008. The used model was the ETA (40 km, with two separate entries of data, the analysis of the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS (ETA-I and the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP (ETA-II. The results showed, for both tests, a trend of overestimation (positive values of average error of precipitation on the Northern Region of Brazil, mainly for the 24 hours forecast. Considering the mean sea level pressure (MSLP, it was clearly seen that the ETA-I, whose values of pressure are very close to observed, provides better results compared to the ETA-II, especially during the first hours of integration.

  13. Regional Models for Sediment Toxicity Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper investigates the use of empirical models to predict the toxicity of sediment samples within a region to laboratory test organisms based on sediment chemistry. In earlier work, we used a large nationwide database of matching sediment chemistry and marine amphipod sedim...

  14. Analysis of nucleation events in the European boundary layer using the regional aerosol–climate model REMO-HAM with a solar radiation-driven OH-proxy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Pietikäinen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This work describes improvements in the regional aerosol–climate model REMO-HAM in order to simulate more realistically the process of atmospheric new particle formation (NPF. A new scheme was implemented to simulate OH radical concentrations using a proxy approach based on observations and also accounting for the effects of clouds upon OH concentrations. Second, the nucleation rate calculation was modified to directly simulate the formation rates of 3 nm particles, which removes some unnecessary steps in the formation rate calculations used earlier in the model. Using the updated model version, NPF over Europe was simulated for the periods 2003–2004 and 2008–2009. The statistics of the simulated particle formation events were subsequently compared to observations from 13 ground-based measurement sites. The new model shows improved agreement with the observed NPF rates compared to former versions and can simulate the event statistics realistically for most parts of Europe.

  15. MODELING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ARCTIC REGION OF RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. N. Kikkas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes a model of six econometric equations, designed for the analysis of the sustainability of development in the Arctic region of the Russian Federation - Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. The article analyzes the spheres of human activity in the Chukchi Autonomous District: social, industrial, natural resources. Each sphere is estimated indicators. The theoretical views of various researchers on sustainable development and defi nes the concept of sustainable development of the spheres of human activity in the Arctic region. Under the sustainable development of the Arctic region of space refers to such changes in the indices of spheres of human activity in the region, which increase the potential for human development. The numerical value of the potential of human development is estimated Human Development Index. The article describes the methodological principles of constructing a model of six equations econometric analysis of the sustainable development of the Arctic region. Each of the six equations presented in the form of ADL-model, because it allows us to estimate the dependence of ADL values of the spheres of human activity in the region from the current and past values of the series of other indicators. Selected endogenous and exogenous variables for the model. We discuss the algorithm for fi nding the model parameters. On the basis of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug are six coeffi cients of econometric equations. The analysis of the results of the decision model. Methodological principles and results of the decision model can be used to develop strategies for sustainable development of the municipality, a separate Arctic, or a combination of all the Arctic regions of Russia.

  16. The ATLAS Analysis Model

    CERN Multimedia

    Amir Farbin

    The ATLAS Analysis Model is a continually developing vision of how to reconcile physics analysis requirements with the ATLAS offline software and computing model constraints. In the past year this vision has influenced the evolution of the ATLAS Event Data Model, the Athena software framework, and physics analysis tools. These developments, along with the October Analysis Model Workshop and the planning for CSC analyses have led to a rapid refinement of the ATLAS Analysis Model in the past few months. This article introduces some of the relevant issues and presents the current vision of the future ATLAS Analysis Model. Event Data Model The ATLAS Event Data Model (EDM) consists of several levels of details, each targeted for a specific set of tasks. For example the Event Summary Data (ESD) stores calorimeter cells and tracking system hits thereby permitting many calibration and alignment tasks, but will be only accessible at particular computing sites with potentially large latency. In contrast, the Analysis...

  17. Improving stability of regional numerical ocean models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzfeld, Mike

    2009-02-01

    An operational limited-area ocean modelling system was developed to supply forecasts of ocean state out to 3 days. This system is designed to allow non-specialist users to locate the model domain anywhere within the Australasian region with minimum user input. The model is required to produce a stable simulation every time it is invoked. This paper outlines the methodology used to ensure the model remains stable over the wide range of circumstances it might encounter. Central to the model configuration is an alternative approach to implementing open boundary conditions in a one-way nesting environment. Approximately 170 simulations were performed on limited areas in the Australasian region to assess the model stability; of these, 130 ran successfully with a static model parameterisation allowing a statistical estimate of the model’s approach toward instability to be determined. Based on this, when the model was deemed to be approaching instability a strategy of adaptive intervention in the form of constraint on velocity and elevation was invoked to maintain stability.

  18. Analysis of MAGSAT and surface data of the Indian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, G. C. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    Techniques and significant results of an analysis of MAGSAT and surface data of the Indian region are described. Specific investigative tasks included: (1) use of the multilevel data at different altitudes to develop a model for variation of magnetic anomaly with altitude; (2) development of the regional model for the description of main geomagnetic field for the Indian sub-continent using MAGSAT and observatory data; (3) development of regional mathematical model of secular variations over the Indian sub-continent; and (4) downward continuation of the anomaly field obtained from MAGSAT and its combination with the existing observatory data to produce a regional anomaly map for elucidating tectonic features of the Indian sub-continent.

  19. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  20. Ecosystem feedbacks to climate change in California: Development, testing, and analysis using a coupled regional atmosphere and land-surface model (WRF3-CLM3.5)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Subin, Z.M.; Riley, W.J.; Kueppers, L.M.; Jin, J.; Christianson, D.S.; Torn, M.S.

    2010-11-01

    A regional atmosphere model [Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3 (WRF3)] and a land surface model [Community Land Model, version 3.5 (CLM3.5)] were coupled to study the interactions between the atmosphere and possible future California land-cover changes. The impact was evaluated on California's climate of changes in natural vegetation under climate change and of intentional afforestation. The ability of WRF3 to simulate California's climate was assessed by comparing simulations by WRF3-CLM3.5 and WRF3-Noah to observations from 1982 to 1991. Using WRF3-CLM3.5, the authors performed six 13-yr experiments using historical and future large-scale climate boundary conditions from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The land-cover scenarios included historical and future natural vegetation from the Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System-Century 1 (MC1) dynamic vegetation model, in addition to a future 8-million-ha California afforestation scenario. Natural vegetation changes alone caused summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature changes of -0.7 to +1 C in regions without persistent snow cover, depending on the location and the type of vegetation change. Vegetation temperature changes were much larger than the 2-m air temperature changes because of the finescale spatial heterogeneity of the imposed vegetation change. Up to 30% of the magnitude of the summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature increase and 70% of the magnitude of the 1600 local time (LT) vegetation temperature increase projected under future climate change were attributable to the climate-driven shift in land cover. The authors projected that afforestation could cause local 0.2-1.2 C reductions in summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature and 2.0-3.7 C reductions in 1600 LT vegetation temperature for snow-free regions, primarily because of increased evapotranspiration. Because some of these temperature changes are of comparable magnitude to those

  1. Modeling disordered regions in proteins using Rosetta.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ray Yu-Ruei Wang

    Full Text Available Protein structure prediction methods such as Rosetta search for the lowest energy conformation of the polypeptide chain. However, the experimentally observed native state is at a minimum of the free energy, rather than the energy. The neglect of the missing configurational entropy contribution to the free energy can be partially justified by the assumption that the entropies of alternative folded states, while very much less than unfolded states, are not too different from one another, and hence can be to a first approximation neglected when searching for the lowest free energy state. The shortcomings of current structure prediction methods may be due in part to the breakdown of this assumption. Particularly problematic are proteins with significant disordered regions which do not populate single low energy conformations even in the native state. We describe two approaches within the Rosetta structure modeling methodology for treating such regions. The first does not require advance knowledge of the regions likely to be disordered; instead these are identified by minimizing a simple free energy function used previously to model protein folding landscapes and transition states. In this model, residues can be either completely ordered or completely disordered; they are considered disordered if the gain in entropy outweighs the loss of favorable energetic interactions with the rest of the protein chain. The second approach requires identification in advance of the disordered regions either from sequence alone using for example the DISOPRED server or from experimental data such as NMR chemical shifts. During Rosetta structure prediction calculations the disordered regions make only unfavorable repulsive contributions to the total energy. We find that the second approach has greater practical utility and illustrate this with examples from de novo structure prediction, NMR structure calculation, and comparative modeling.

  2. The regional climate model RegCM3 performances over several regions and climate regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, E.; Rauscher, S.; Gao, X.; Giorgi, F.; Im, E. S.; Mariotti, L.; Seth, A.; Sylla, M. B.

    2009-04-01

    in the region. Over Africa our analysis shows that RegCM3 is able to reproduce fairly well the spatial variability of seasonal mean temperature, precipitation and the associated low-level circulation. However, monsoon flow is over predicted while African Easterly Jet (AEJ) core underestimated and shifted a bit northward. Finally, over Europe the regional model shows a cold bias for most part of the year and a wet bias in winter and spring. Rain frequency is too high especially over the mountainous regions. The spatial patter of the precipitation extreme is well represented in the model although a slight overestimation of the 95, 98 99 percentile is evident.

  3. PDS-Modelling and Regional Bayesian Estimation of Extreme Rainfalls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan; Harremoës, Poul

    1994-01-01

    rainfalls. The method is applied to two variables: the total precipitation depth and the maximum 10-minute rain intensity of individual storms. On the basis of the atsite modelling a regional analysis is carried out. It is shown that the previous assumption of spatial homogeneity of extreme rainfalls...

  4. A Schumpeterian Model of Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and Regional Economic Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

    2012-01-01

    The authors provide the first theoretical analysis of a one-sector, discrete-time, Schumpeterian model of growth in a regional economy in which consumers are risk neutral, there is no population growth, monopolistic entrepreneurs produce intermediate goods, and a single consumption good is produced

  5. Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

    1998-03-01

    Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

  6. Analysis of Current and Future SPEI Droughts in the La Plata Basin Based on Results from the Regional Eta Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sordo-Ward

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We identified and analysed droughts in the La Plata Basin (divided into seven sub-basins for the current period (1961–2005 and estimated their expected evolution under future climate projections for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. Future climate projections were analysed from results of the Eta Regional Climate Model (grid resolution of approximately 10 km forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES over the La Plata basin, and considering a RCP4.5 emission scenario. Within each sub-basin, we particularly focused our drought analyses on croplands and grasslands, due to their economic relevance. The three-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI3 was used for drought identification and characterization. Droughts were evaluated in terms of time (percentage of time from the total length of each climate scenario, space (percentage of total area, and severity (SPEI3 values of cells characterized by cropland and grassland for each sub-basin and climate scenario. Drought-severity–area–frequency curves were developed to quantitatively relate the frequency distribution of drought occurrence to drought severity and area. For the period 2011–2040, droughts dominate the northern sub-basins, whereas alternating wet and short dry periods dominate the southern sub-basins. Wet climate spread from south to north within the La Plata Basin as more distant future scenarios were analysed, due to both a greater number of wet periods and fewer droughts. The area of each sub-basin affected by drought in all climate scenarios was highly varied temporally and spatially. The likelihood of the occurrence of droughts differed significantly between the studied cover types in the Lower Paraguay sub-basin, being higher for cropland than for grassland. Mainly in the Upper Paraguay and in the Upper Paraná basins the climate projections for all scenarios showed an increase of moderate and severe droughts over large regions

  7. CO2 emissions in the global supply chains of services: An analysis based on a multi-regional input–output model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Wencheng; Peng, Shuijun; Sun, Chuanwang

    2015-01-01

    As the service sector dominates the economy in developed countries, its environmental impact has become an important issue. Based on a multi-regional input–output model, this paper estimates consumption-based emissions of service sectors of 41 countries and regions, and discusses the emission abatement policy of service sectors. The results indicate that consumption-based emissions of the service sector in most countries and regions are much greater than direct emissions generated by the service sector. Further decomposition by production sources demonstrates that final demand for services in certain countries causes substantial emissions in the other countries. In most countries, major parts of consumption-based emissions of the service sector come from upstream emissions in non-service sectors due to the intermediate consumption of non-service inputs in the service sector. For the US and China, the consumption-based emissions of their service sectors are traced back to different service consumption bundles and production sectors, which enable us to identify service categories and production sectors that play key roles in the impact of service sectors on CO 2 emissions. Finally, policy implications of the results are discussed for the climate effect of the service-oriented economy, global mitigation of climate change, sustainability, and the decarbonization of the service sector. - Highlights: • A consumption perspective for the assessment of the environmental impact of the service sector. • International supply chain effect is analyzed using a global input–output model. • Consumption-based emissions of the service sector are decomposed in two ways. • Policy implications for emissions mitigation in the service-oriented economy.

  8. Transitional region of phase transitions in nuclear models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotze, A A

    1988-01-01

    The phase transition in an exactly solvable nuclear model, the Lipkin model, is scrutinised, first using Hartree-Fock methods or the plain mean flield approximation, and then using projected wave functions. It turns out that the plain mean field is not reliable in the transitional region. Although the projection methods give better resutls in the transitional region, it leads to spurious singularities. While the energy of the projection before variation is slightly better than its projection after variation counterpart, the perfomance of the wave function is considerably worse in the transitional region. The model's wave function undergoes dramatic changes in the transitional region. The mechanism that brings about these changes is studied within a model Hamiltonian that can reproduce the Lipkin model mathematically. It turns out that the numerous exceptional points found in the transitional region, bring about the change of the ground state wave function. Exceptional points are associated with level crossings in the complex plane. These level crossings can be seen as level repulsions in the spectrum. Level repulsion and a sensitive dependence of the system on some external parameter are characteristics of chaotic behaviour. These two features are found in the transitional region of the Lipkin model. In order to study chaos, one has to resort to a statistical analysis. A measure of the chaotic behaviour of systems, the ..delta../sub 3/ statistic, is introduced. The results show that the Lipkin model is harmonic, even in the transitional region. For the Lipkin model the exceptional points are regularly distributed in the complex plane. In a total chaotic system the points would be randomly distributed.

  9. The transitional region of phase transitions in nuclear models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotze, A.A.

    1988-01-01

    The phase transition in an exactly solvable nuclear model, the Lipkin model, is scrutinised, first using Hartree-Fock methods or the plain mean flield approximation, and then using projected wave functions. It turns out that the plain mean field is not reliable in the transitional region. Although the projection methods give better resutls in the transitional region, it leads to spurious singularities. While the energy of the projection before variation is slightly better than its projection after variation counterpart, the perfomance of the wave function is considerably worse in the transitional region. The model's wave function undergoes dramatic changes in the transitional region. The mechanism that brings about these changes is studied within a model Hamiltonian that can reproduce the Lipkin model mathematically. It turns out that the numerous exceptional points found in the transitional region, bring about the change of the ground state wave function. Exceptional points are associated with level crossings in the complex plane. These level crossings can be seen as level repulsions in the spectrum. Level repulsion and a sensitive dependence of the system on some external parameter are characteristics of chaotic behaviour. These two features are found in the transitional region of the Lipkin model. In order to study chaos, one has to resort to a statistical analysis. A measure of the chaotic behaviour of systems, the Δ 3 statistic, is introduced. The results show that the Lipkin model is harmonic, even in the transitional region. For the Lipkin model the exceptional points are regularly distributed in the complex plane. In a total chaotic system the points would be randomly distributed

  10. Regional impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on future ocean carbon uptake: A multi-model linear feedback analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Tilla; Bopp Laurent; Gehlen Marion; Schneider Birgitt; Cadule Patricia; Frölicher Thomas; Segschneider Jochen; Tijputra Jerry; Heinze Christoph; Joos Fortunat

    2011-01-01

    The increase in atmospheric CO2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air–sea CO2 uptake which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO2 itself and climate change. Here the future oceanic CO2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate–carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully sep...

  11. Comparative Analysis of Innovative Systems in the Russian Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadezhda Nikolaevna Mikheeva

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article was conducted with the financial support of the Program of fundamental studies of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences No. 31, «The Role of Space in the Modernization of Russia: Natural and Socio-Economic Potential» (project 7.2 «Tools of Regional Policy and the Effectiveness of Their Use» Despite the abundance of literature on innovation in the regions, there is no frame of reference about the patterns and mechanisms of formation of regional innovation systems (RIS. So it’s next to impossible to differentiate approaches to stimulation of innovations in the regions taking into account their specific characters. Therefore, the author attempts to formalize the definition of RIS and to provide not only qualitative but also quantitative evaluation of different types of regional innovation systems. This paper is trying to find a set of models of RIS development in Russian regions with specific characters. These regional peculiarities play a key role in a process of selecting methods for further RIS development, including methods of state support of innovation, which are adequate to the characteristics of the regional innovation system. The author obtained the following results: 1 presentation of various approaches to define regional innovative systems; 2 proposition of RIS structure that includes 5 blocks (creation of innovations; production and realization of innovative goods and services in the region; innovative infrastructure of the region; demand for innovations and innovative policy and 3 development of the system of statistical indicators that characterize RIS. On the basis of formal and substantive analysis of these indicators the researcher defined 6 models of regional innovative systems prevailing in the Russian circumstances

  12. Fused cerebral organoids model interactions between brain regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagley, Joshua A; Reumann, Daniel; Bian, Shan; Lévi-Strauss, Julie; Knoblich, Juergen A

    2017-07-01

    Human brain development involves complex interactions between different regions, including long-distance neuronal migration or formation of major axonal tracts. Different brain regions can be cultured in vitro within 3D cerebral organoids, but the random arrangement of regional identities limits the reliable analysis of complex phenotypes. Here, we describe a coculture method combining brain regions of choice within one organoid tissue. By fusing organoids of dorsal and ventral forebrain identities, we generate a dorsal-ventral axis. Using fluorescent reporters, we demonstrate CXCR4-dependent GABAergic interneuron migration from ventral to dorsal forebrain and describe methodology for time-lapse imaging of human interneuron migration. Our results demonstrate that cerebral organoid fusion cultures can model complex interactions between different brain regions. Combined with reprogramming technology, fusions should offer researchers the possibility to analyze complex neurodevelopmental defects using cells from neurological disease patients and to test potential therapeutic compounds.

  13. Detection by voxel-wise statistical analysis of significant changes in regional cerebral glucose uptake in an APP/PS1 transgenic mouse model of Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubois, Albertine; Hérard, Anne-Sophie; Delatour, Benoît; Hantraye, Philippe; Bonvento, Gilles; Dhenain, Marc; Delzescaux, Thierry

    2010-06-01

    Biomarkers and technologies similar to those used in humans are essential for the follow-up of Alzheimer's disease (AD) animal models, particularly for the clarification of mechanisms and the screening and validation of new candidate treatments. In humans, changes in brain metabolism can be detected by 1-deoxy-2-[(18)F] fluoro-D-glucose PET (FDG-PET) and assessed in a user-independent manner with dedicated software, such as Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM). FDG-PET can be carried out in small animals, but its resolution is low as compared to the size of rodent brain structures. In mouse models of AD, changes in cerebral glucose utilization are usually detected by [(14)C]-2-deoxyglucose (2DG) autoradiography, but this requires prior manual outlining of regions of interest (ROI) on selected sections. Here, we evaluate the feasibility of applying the SPM method to 3D autoradiographic data sets mapping brain metabolic activity in a transgenic mouse model of AD. We report the preliminary results obtained with 4 APP/PS1 (64+/-1 weeks) and 3 PS1 (65+/-2 weeks) mice. We also describe new procedures for the acquisition and use of "blockface" photographs and provide the first demonstration of their value for the 3D reconstruction and spatial normalization of post mortem mouse brain volumes. Despite this limited sample size, our results appear to be meaningful, consistent, and more comprehensive than findings from previously published studies based on conventional ROI-based methods. The establishment of statistical significance at the voxel level, rather than with a user-defined ROI, makes it possible to detect more reliably subtle differences in geometrically complex regions, such as the hippocampus. Our approach is generic and could be easily applied to other biomarkers and extended to other species and applications. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Regional analysis of the nuclear-electricity; Analisis regional de la nucleoelectricidad

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parera, M. D., E-mail: dparera@cnea.gov.ar [CNEA, Gerencia de Planificacion, Coordinacion y Control, Subgerencia de Planificacion Estrategica, Av. Gral. Paz 1499, B1650KNA San Martin, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2011-11-15

    In this study was realized a regional analysis of the Argentinean electric market contemplating the effects of regional cooperation, the internal and international interconnections; and the possibilities of insert of new nuclear power stations were evaluated in different regions of the country, indicating the most appropriate areas to carry out these facilities to increase the penetration of the nuclear energy in the national energy matrix. Also was studied the interconnection of the electricity and natural gas markets, due to the existent linking among both energy forms. With this purpose the program Message (Model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impacts) was used, promoted by the International Atomic Energy Agency. This model carries out an economic optimization level country, obtaining the minimum cost as a result for the modeling system. The division for regions realized by the Compania Administradora del Mercado Mayorista Electrico (CAMMESA) was used, which divides to the country in eight regions. They were considered the characteristics and necessities of each one of them, their respective demands and offers of electric power and natural gas, as well as their existent and projected interconnections, composed by the electric lines and gas pipes. According to the results obtained through the model, the nuclear-electricity is a competitive option. (Author)

  15. Assessment of ENSEMBLES regional climate models for the representation of monthly wind characteristics in the Aegean Sea (Greece): Mean and extremes analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Tolika, Konstantia; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Velikou, Kondylia; Vagenas, Christos

    2013-04-01

    The main scope of the present study is the assessment of the ability of three of the most updated regional climate models, developed under the frame of the European research project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/), to simulate the wind characteristics in the Aegean Sea in Greece. The examined models are KNMI-RACMO2, MPI-MREMO, and ICTP - RegCM3. They all have the same spatial resolution (25x25km) and for their future projections they are using the A1B SRES emission scenarios. Their simulated wind data (speed and direction) were compared with observational data from several stations over the domain of study for a time period of 25 years, from 1980 to 2004 on a monthly basis. The primer data were available every three or six hours from which we computed the mean daily wind speed and the prevailing daily wind direction. It should be mentioned, that the comparison was made for the grid point that was the closest to each station over land. Moreover, the extreme speed values were also calculated both for the observational and the simulated data, in order to assess the ability of the models in capturing the most intense wind conditions. The first results of the study showed that the prevailing winds during the winter and spring months have a north - northeastern or a south - south western direction in most parts of the Aegean sea. The models under examination seem to capture quite satisfactorily this pattern as well as the general characteristics of the winds in this area. During summer, winds in the Aegean Sea have mainly north direction and the models have quite good agreement both in simulating this direction and the wind speed. Concerning the extreme wind speed (percentiles) it was found that for the stations in the northern Aegean all the models overestimate the extreme wind indices. For the eastern parts of the Aegean the KNMI and the MPI model underestimate the extreme wind speeds while on the other hand the ICTP model overestimates them. Finally for the

  16. Processes Controlling CH2O Over the Baltimore/Washington DC Metropolitan Region: A Box Model Analysis Using Data from DISCOVER-AQ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, J. R.; Crawford, J. H.; Fried, A.; Wisthaler, A.; Weinheimer, A. J.; Barrick, J. D.; Diskin, G. S.; Duncan, B. N.; Mikoviny, T.

    2012-12-01

    The first deployment for NASA's Earth Venture campaign DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) took place over the Baltimore/Washington DC region during July of 2011. Observations of CH2O in the lowest kilometer (pressure-altitude) indicate that median concentrations can vary day to day by as much as 5 ppbv. Further, variability within a single day can correlate with a number of species, including H2O, temperature, isoprene, and/or CO. The NASA Langley photochemical box model is used to examine the dominant budget terms for CH2O during DISCOVER-AQ and to diagnose the drivers of the CH2O variability. Modeling results show that the source of CH2O is largely dominated by isoprene. However, the variability of CH2O within single flight days is rarely directly correlated to isoprene. Rather, most often, CH2O variability is correlated to the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, defined by OH and driven by OH precursors such as H2O, O3 photolysis rates, and NO. Sensitivity model runs where isoprene is held constant to daily medians show excellent ability to predict both the overall CH2O concentration (dominated by isoprene) and the variability of CH2O throughout a day (driven by variations in oxidative capacity).

  17. Investigating Performance Installation of Hospital Room Surgery of Six Hospitals in Special Region of Yogyakarta by Using Data Envelopment Analysis Model Constant Return to Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhimo Rizky Samudro

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the efficiency level of hospital surgery hospital installation in Special Region of Yogyakarta Province. Research conceptual constructs are based on input and output performance in institutional performance processes. This research approach uses positivist pattern and is derived by quantitative method. This is to explain the efficiency pattern of the installation of hospital and private hospital surgery rooms. The quantitative method chosen is the concept of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA. The results showed that 1 the installation of a private hospital surgery room tends to be more efficient than government property; 2 the installation of a special hospital surgical hospital is not absolutely more efficient than a public hospital. As a recommendation, this research provides scenario for setting input usage for efficient performance.

  18. Sensitivity Analysis of a Land-Use Change Model with and without Agents to Assess Land Abandonment and Long-Term Re-Forestation in a Swiss Mountain Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Maria Brändle

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Land abandonment and the subsequent re-forestation are important drivers behind the loss of ecosystem services in mountain regions. Agent-based models can help to identify global change impacts on farmland abandonment and can test policy and management options to counteract this development. Realigning the representation of human decision making with time scales of ecological processes such as reforestation presents a major challenge in this context. Models either focus on the agent-specific behavior anchored in the current generation of farmers at the expense of representing longer scale environmental processes or they emphasize the simulation of long-term economic and forest developments where representation of human behavior is simplified in time and space. In this context, we compare the representation of individual and aggregated decision-making in the same model structure and by doing so address some implications of choosing short or long term time horizons in land-use modeling. Based on survey data, we integrate dynamic agents into a comparative static economic sector supply model in a Swiss mountain region. The results from an extensive sensitivity analysis show that this agent-based land-use change model can reproduce observed data correctly and that both model versions are sensitive to the same model parameters. In particular, in both models the specification of opportunity costs determines the extent of production activities and land-use changes by restricting the output space. Our results point out that the agent-based model can capture short and medium term developments in land abandonment better than the aggregated version without losing its sensitivity to important socio-economic drivers. For comparative static approaches, extensive sensitivity analysis with respect to opportunity costs, i.e., the measure of benefits forgone due to alternative uses of labor is essential for the assessment of the impact of climate change on land

  19. ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL EFFICIENCY IN CROATIA USING DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danijela Rabar

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, regional efficiency of Croatian counties is measured in three-year period (2005-2007 using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA. The set of inputs and outputs consists of seven socioeconomic indicators. Analysis is carried out using models with assumption of variable returns-to-scale. DEA identifies efficient counties as benchmark members and inefficient counties that are analyzed in detail to determine the sources and the amounts of their inefficiency in each source. To enable proper monitoring of development dynamics, window analysis is applied. Based on the results, guidelines for implementing necessary improvements to achieve efficiency are given. Analysis reveals great disparities among counties. In order to alleviate naturally, historically and politically conditioned unequal county positions over which economic policy makers do not have total control, categorical approach is introduced as an extension to the basic DEA models. This approach, combined with window analysis, changes relations among efficiency scores in favor of continental counties.

  20. Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leduc, Martin [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada); UQAM/Ouranos, Montreal, QC (Canada); Laprise, Rene [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada)

    2009-05-15

    Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the ''perfect model'' approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 x 100 grid points). The permanent ''spatial spin-up'' corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere. (orig.)

  1. Geophysical and geochemical regional evaluation and geophysical model for uranium exploration in the western part of Yanliao region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Tengyao; Cui Huanmin; Chen Guoliang; Zhai Yugui

    1992-01-01

    The western part of Yanliao region is an important uranium metallogenic region. This paper summarizes the regional geophysical model for uranium exploration composed of prediction model for favourable area of mineralization and evaluation model for anomalies on the basis of aeromagnetic and aeroradiometric data interpretation and analysis of the data from carborane and ground gamma spectrometric survey, high accurate magnetic survey, VLF survey and α-collected film survey in mult-displiary research work. The prospective prediction for uranium metallogenesis in this region was also conducted

  2. Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Welsch, M.

    2015-01-01

    KTH Royal Institute of Technology was founded in 1827 and it is the largest technical university in Sweden with five campuses and Around 15,000 students. KTH-dESA combines an outstanding knowledge in the field of energy systems analysis. This is demonstrated by the successful collaborations with many (UN) organizations. Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa include Assessing renewable energy potentials; Analysing investment strategies; ) Assessing climate resilience; Comparing electrification options; Providing web-based decision support; and Quantifying energy access. It is conclude that Strategies required to ensure a robust and flexible energy system (-> no-regret choices); Capacity investments should be in line with national & regional strategies; Climate change important to consider, as it may strongly influence the energy flows in a region; Long-term models can help identify robust energy investment strategies and pathways that Can help assess future markets and profitability of individual projects

  3. Revisiting regional flood frequency analysis in Slovakia: the region-of-influence method vs. traditional regional approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaál, Ladislav; Kohnová, Silvia; Szolgay, Ján.

    2010-05-01

    During the last 10-15 years, the Slovak hydrologists and water resources managers have been devoting considerable efforts to develop statistical tools for modelling probabilities of flood occurrence in a regional context. Initially, these models followed concepts to regional flood frequency analysis that were based on fixed regions, later the Hosking and Wallis's (HW; 1997) theory was adopted and modified. Nevertheless, it turned out to be that delineating homogeneous regions using these approaches is not a straightforward task, mostly due to the complex orography of the country. In this poster we aim at revisiting flood frequency analyses so far accomplished for Slovakia by adopting one of the pooling approaches, i.e. the region-of-influence (ROI) approach (Burn, 1990). In the ROI approach, unique pooling groups of similar sites are defined for each site under study. The similarity of sites is defined through Euclidean distance in the space of site attributes that had also proved applicability in former cluster analyses: catchment area, afforested area, hydrogeological catchment index and the mean annual precipitation. The homogeneity of the proposed pooling groups is evaluated by the built-in homogeneity test by Lu and Stedinger (1992). Two alternatives of the ROI approach are examined: in the first one the target size of the pooling groups is adjusted to the target return period T of the estimated flood quantiles, while in the other one, the target size is fixed, regardless of the target T. The statistical models of the ROI approach are inter-compared by the conventional regionalization approach based on the HW methodology where the parameters of flood frequency distributions were derived by means of L-moment statistics and a regional formula for the estimation of the index flood was derived by multiple regression methods using physiographic and climatic catchment characteristics. The inter-comparison of different frequency models is evaluated by means of the

  4. Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, Martin; Laprise, René

    2009-05-01

    Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the “perfect model” approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 × 100 grid points). The permanent “spatial spin-up” corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere.

  5. Traffic Analysis Zones, This Layer was created by ARC's Transportation Planning Division to identify Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) in the 20-county Atlanta Region. These TAZs represent the geography used in the ongoing transportation modeling for the Envision 6 forecast series (, Published in 2006, 1:100000 (1in=8333ft) scale, Atlanta Regional Commission.

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Regional | GIS Inventory — Traffic Analysis Zones dataset current as of 2006. This Layer was created by ARC's Transportation Planning Division to identify Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) in the...

  6. Analysis of trade condition in Ras region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andelić Slavica

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern academic literature in the field of trade in macro and mesoeconomic atmosphere, is trying to shed light on the data which defines exchange flows in intra and international environment. The study of this work is based on the database based through state registers, where with their sizing and analysis, we are coming to a deeper insight into the condition of market channels of Ras region and its relationship with the environment. The aim of this work is meticulous interpretation of trade patterns as a result of macro and meso trade policy, which could serve as an incentive for local and governmental structures in developing commercial potential of the southern part of our country.

  7. Seismic fault analysis of Chicoutimi region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woussen, G.; Ngandee, S.

    1996-01-01

    On November 25, 1988, an earthquake measuring 6.5 on the Richter Scale occurred at a depth of 29 km in Precambrian bedrock in the Saguenay Region (Quebec). Given that the seismic event was located near a major zone of normal faults, it is important to determine if the earthquake could be associated with this large structure or with faults associated with this structure. This is discussed through a compilation and interpretation of structural discontinuities on key outcrops in the vicinity of the epicenter. The report is broken in four parts. The first part gives a brief overview of the geology in order to provide a geologic context for the structural measurements. The second comprises an analysis of fractures in each of the three lithotectonic units defined in the first part. The third part discusses the data and the fourth provides a conclusion. 30 refs., 53 figs

  8. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.

    2009-05-01

    Available observations are localized and widely separated in both space and time, so we depend heavily on models to characterize, understand, and predict carbon fluxes at regional and global scales. The results from each model differ because they use different approaches (forward vs. inverse), modeling strategies (detailed process, statistical, observation based), process representation, boundary conditions, initial conditions, and driver data. To investigate these differences we conducted a model-model and model-data comparison using available forward ecosystem model and atmospheric inverse output, along with regional scale inventory data. Forward or "bottom-up" models typically estimate carbon fluxes through a set of physiological relationships, and are based on our current mechanistic understanding of how carbon is exchanged within ecosystems. Inverse or "top-down" analyses use measured atmospheric concentrations of CO2, coupled with an atmospheric transport model to infer surface flux distributions. Although bottom-up models do fairly well at reproducing measured fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem exchange) at a given location, they vary considerably in their estimates of carbon flux over regional or continental scales, suggesting difficulty in scaling mechanistic relationships to large areas and/or timescales. Conversely, top-down inverse models predict fluxes that are quantitatively consistent with atmospheric measurements, suggesting that they are capturing large scale variability in flux quite well, but offer limited insights into the processes controlling this variability and how fluxes vary at fine spatial scales. The analyses focused on identifying and quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes among the models; quantifying across-model variability, as well as comparing simulated or estimated surface fluxes and biomass to observed values at regional to continental scales for the period 2000-2005. The analysis focused on the following three

  9. Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs for CSEP Testing Region Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peresan, A.; Romashkova, L.; Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V.; Panza, G.F.

    2010-07-01

    A comprehensive analysis shows that the set of catalogs provided by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV, Italy) as the authoritative database for the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability - Testing Region Italy (CSEP-TRI), is hardly a unified one acceptable for the necessary tuning of models/algorithms, as well as for running rigorous prospective predictability tests at intermediate- or long-term scale. (author)

  10. Multi-scaling allometric analysis for urban and regional development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yanguang

    2017-01-01

    The concept of allometric growth is based on scaling relations, and it has been applied to urban and regional analysis for a long time. However, most allometric analyses were devoted to the single proportional relation between two elements of a geographical system. Few researches focus on the allometric scaling of multielements. In this paper, a process of multiscaling allometric analysis is developed for the studies on spatio-temporal evolution of complex systems. By means of linear algebra, general system theory, and by analogy with the analytical hierarchy process, the concepts of allometric growth can be integrated with the ideas from fractal dimension. Thus a new methodology of geo-spatial analysis and the related theoretical models emerge. Based on the least squares regression and matrix operations, a simple algorithm is proposed to solve the multiscaling allometric equation. Applying the analytical method of multielement allometry to Chinese cities and regions yields satisfying results. A conclusion is reached that the multiscaling allometric analysis can be employed to make a comprehensive evaluation for the relative levels of urban and regional development, and explain spatial heterogeneity. The notion of multiscaling allometry may enrich the current theory and methodology of spatial analyses of urban and regional evolution.

  11. Case Study on Model Factorial Analysis of Turnover Depending on the Structure of Production Sold in a Farm from South-Eastern Development Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Georgeta Nicolae

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available changes in economic and financial phenomenon. Such a study is required arguments for a set of managementmeasures geared towards improving work farms analyzed. The evolution over time in turnover was based on knownstatistical models. The period considered in the study farm is 2007-2008, and turnover analysis refers to the businessof delivering fresh and frozen fish. Following the study found that modification of fish production during the twoyears the level of the average price of delivery and, ultimately, turnover of the holding. Thus in 2007, fresh fishrepresented 56% of the total quantity of fish delivered, in 2008 the share of fresh fish delivered was only 45.5% ofthe total production of fish delivered. This change in structure has helped to increase overall turnover resulting fromthe fish market in the year 2008 consisted of turnover from the sales of fresh fish 43.7%, 56.3% difference is that offish delivered frozen.

  12. Modeling Urban Spatial Growth in Mountainous Regions of Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoping Huang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The scale and speed of urbanization in the mountainous regions of western China have received little attention from researchers. These cities are facing rapid population growth and severe environmental degradation. This study analyzed historical urban growth trends in this mountainous region to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth pattern and the mountainous topography. Three major factors—slope, accessibility, and land use type—were studied in light of their relationships with urban spatial growth. With the analysis of historical data as the basis, a conceptual urban spatial growth model was devised. In this model, slope, accessibility, and land use type together create resistance to urban growth, while accessibility controls the sequence of urban development. The model was tested and evaluated using historical data. It serves as a potential tool for planners to envision and assess future urban growth scenarios and their potential environmental impacts to make informed decisions.

  13. Airport choice model in multiple airport regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Muñoz

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study aims to analyze travel choices made by air transportation users in multi airport regions because it is a crucial component when planning passenger redistribution policies. The purpose of this study is to find a utility function which makes it possible to know the variables that influence users’ choice of the airports on routes to the main cities in the Colombian territory. Design/methodology/approach: This research generates a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, which is based on the theory of maximizing utility, and it is based on the data obtained on revealed and stated preference surveys applied to users who reside in the metropolitan area of Aburrá Valley (Colombia. This zone is the only one in the Colombian territory which has two neighboring airports for domestic flights. The airports included in the modeling process were Enrique Olaya Herrera (EOH Airport and José María Córdova (JMC Airport. Several structure models were tested, and the MNL proved to be the most significant revealing the common variables that affect passenger airport choice include the airfare, the price to travel the airport, and the time to get to the airport. Findings and Originality/value: The airport choice model which was calibrated corresponds to a valid powerful tool used to calculate the probability of each analyzed airport of being chosen for domestic flights in the Colombian territory. This is done bearing in mind specific characteristic of each of the attributes contained in the utility function. In addition, these probabilities will be used to calculate future market shares of the two airports considered in this study, and this will be done generating a support tool for airport and airline marketing policies.

  14. A multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO model to study an international market of CO{sub 2} emission permits. A detailed analysis of a burden sharing strategy among the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahn, O.; Barreto, L.; Bueeler, B.; Kypreos, S. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-11-01

    The development of a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO (mMM) model and associated solution techniques have been actively continued during the first year (July 1996 - June 1997) of the IEA/ETSAP/Annex VI. This has been a joint research effort between: - the Systems Analysis Section of the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), - the Inst. for Operations Research (IFOR) of the Swiss Federal Inst. of Technology at Zurich, - the Logistics Lab. (Logilab) of the Univ. of Geneva, and - the different ETSAP partners that provide the regional MARKAL-MACRO (MM) models. This report intends to give an update on the development of mMM and associated solution techniques, highlighting the progress made since July 1996. It details also first JI study performed with mMM. The mMM model enables one to study an international co-operation to curb jointly carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions through a market of emission permits, and to evaluate the economic implications of co-ordinating abatement policies on the participating regions. Along with emission permits, the regions may exchange other goods. So far, only an aggregate good in monetary unit has been considered. The mMM model integrates regional MM models into a meta-modelling framework. This integration can be done following two equivalent alternatives: mMM can be formulated either with market equilibrium conditions, or with an aggregated utility function and a global excess constraint. In both alternatives, regional MM models have to be extended by coherent budget and/or trade relationships. A first coding of a mMM model with three countries had been done in GAMS. Work has been done to generalise this coding to consider more traded goods and more countries. To solve mMM, two alternative mathematical methods can be used. The first one considers mMM formulated with market equilibrium conditions, and solves it as a variational inequality problem using a cutting plane algorithm. The second one considers mMM formulated with an aggregated utility

  15. A multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO model to study an international market of CO2 emission permits. A detailed analysis of a burden sharing strategy among the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bahn, O.; Barreto, L.; Bueeler, B.; Kypreos, S.

    1997-11-01

    The development of a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO (mMM) model and associated solution techniques have been actively continued during the first year (July 1996 - June 1997) of the IEA/ETSAP/Annex VI. This has been a joint research effort between: - the Systems Analysis Section of the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), - the Inst. for Operations Research (IFOR) of the Swiss Federal Inst. of Technology at Zurich, - the Logistics Lab. (Logilab) of the Univ. of Geneva, and - the different ETSAP partners that provide the regional MARKAL-MACRO (MM) models. This report intends to give an update on the development of mMM and associated solution techniques, highlighting the progress made since July 1996. It details also first JI study performed with mMM. The mMM model enables one to study an international co-operation to curb jointly carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions through a market of emission permits, and to evaluate the economic implications of co-ordinating abatement policies on the participating regions. Along with emission permits, the regions may exchange other goods. So far, only an aggregate good in monetary unit has been considered. The mMM model integrates regional MM models into a meta-modelling framework. This integration can be done following two equivalent alternatives: mMM can be formulated either with market equilibrium conditions, or with an aggregated utility function and a global excess constraint. In both alternatives, regional MM models have to be extended by coherent budget and/or trade relationships. A first coding of a mMM model with three countries had been done in GAMS. Work has been done to generalise this coding to consider more traded goods and more countries. To solve mMM, two alternative mathematical methods can be used. The first one considers mMM formulated with market equilibrium conditions, and solves it as a variational inequality problem using a cutting plane algorithm. The second one considers mMM formulated with an aggregated utility

  16. Ground Motion Prediction Models for Caucasus Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorjiashvili, Nato; Godoladze, Tea; Tvaradze, Nino; Tumanova, Nino

    2016-04-01

    Ground motion prediction models (GMPMs) relate ground motion intensity measures to variables describing earthquake source, path, and site effects. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. The most commonly used parameter for attenuation relation is peak ground acceleration or spectral acceleration because this parameter gives useful information for Seismic Hazard Assessment. Since 2003 development of Georgian Digital Seismic Network has started. In this study new GMP models are obtained based on new data from Georgian seismic network and also from neighboring countries. Estimation of models is obtained by classical, statistical way, regression analysis. In this study site ground conditions are additionally considered because the same earthquake recorded at the same distance may cause different damage according to ground conditions. Empirical ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) require adjustment to make them appropriate for site-specific scenarios. However, the process of making such adjustments remains a challenge. This work presents a holistic framework for the development of a peak ground acceleration (PGA) or spectral acceleration (SA) GMPE that is easily adjustable to different seismological conditions and does not suffer from the practical problems associated with adjustments in the response spectral domain.

  17. New Ground Motion Prediction Models for Caucasus Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorjiashvili, N.

    2012-12-01

    The Caucasus is a region of numerous natural hazards and ensuing disasters. Analysis of the losses due to past disasters indicates the those most catastrophic in the region have historically been due to strong earthquakes. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. The most commonly used parameter for attenuation relation is peak ground acceleration because this parameter gives useful information for Seismic Hazard Assessment. Because of this, many peak ground acceleration attenuation relations have been developed by different authors. Besides, a few attenuation relations were developed for Caucasus region: Ambraseys et al. (1996,2005) which were based on entire European region and they were not focused locally on Caucasus Region; Smit et.al. (2000) that was based on a small amount of acceleration data that really is not enough. Since 2003 construction of Georgian Digital Seismic Network has started with the help of number of International organizations, Projects and Private companies. The works conducted involved scientific as well as organizational activities: Resolving technical problems concerning communication and data transmission. Thus, today we have a possibility to get real time data and make scientific research based on digital seismic data. Generally, ground motion and damage are influenced by the magnitude of the earthquake, the distance from the seismic source to site, the local ground conditions and the characteristics of buildings. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. This is the reason why this topic is emphasized in this study. In this study new GMP models are obtained based on new data from Georgian seismic network and also from neighboring countries. Estimation of models are obtained by classical, statistical way, regression analysis. Also site ground conditions are considered because the same earthquake recorded at the same distance may cause different damage

  18. Review of regional economic models with special reference to labor impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferris, G.; Mason, B.

    1979-06-01

    This paper reviews several regional economic models and examines the capabilities of these models for assessing the total employment impacts of solar energy adoption. Five generic analytic methods are discussed: economic base analysis, shift-share analysis, demographic-economic interaction models, input-output analysis, and industrial location analysis. Ten regional models incorporating some aspect of these methods are reviewed. From the model review, the conclusion is drawn that there is no single model that fits all of the necessary criteria for planned research efforts. Models that appear to hold promise are the Economic Activity Analysis (EAA) Model, the Regional Industrial Multipliers System (RIMS), the Multiregion, Multi-industry (MRMI) Model, and the MULTIREGION model.

  19. Supra regional ground water modelling - in-depth analysis of the groundwater flow patterns in eastern Smaaland. Comparison with different conceptual descriptions; Storregional grundvattenmodellering - foerdjupad analys av floedesfoerhaallanden i oestra Smaaland. Jaemfoerelse av olika konceptuella beskrivningar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ericsson, Lars O. [Lars O Ericsson Consulting AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Holmen, Johan [Golder Associates, Uppsala (Sweden); Rhen, Ingvar; Blomquist, Niklas [SWECO VIAK, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2006-05-15

    One of many geoscientific questions in connection with the siting of a final repository for spent nuclear fuel in Sweden has to do with understanding the large-scale flow patterns of the naturally circulating groundwater. The recharge and discharge of the groundwater is therefore a subject for both SKB's research activities and the interest of the regulatory authorities. This report aims at providing an in-depth scientific analysis of the groundwater flow pattern based on the criteria and suitability indicators which SKB has previously presented with respect to recharge and discharge aspects in a supra regional perspective. The analysis was conducted within the framework of a project whose goals were to: evaluate conceptual simplifications and model uncertainties in supra regional groundwater modelling, and to carry out an in-depth and comprehensive analysis of regional flow conditions in eastern Smaaland. Achieving these goals has required an approach based on the use of available geoscientific data on the Smaaland region combined with an analysis of different conceptual assumptions and system descriptions. The following general conclusions can be drawn from the study and the applied methodology: The factor of greatest importance for the regional flow pattern (from repository depth) is the topography. The discharge areas are mainly found in the low-lying parts of the topography, along valleys, and the recharge areas occur on the heights. The topographic undulation is of greater importance than the properties of the conductivity field. Different lithological units, regional deformation zones, local heterogeneity, Quaternary deposits etc are of less importance than the undulation of the topography. For areas described and analyzed with the most realistic assumptions, the groundwater flow pattern can be described as a primarily local flow process. The median flow path length in the study is on the order of 2 km, and the fraction of supra regional flow paths

  20. High beta and second stability region transport and stability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    This document summarizes progress made on the research of high beta and second region transport and stability. In the area second stability region studies we report on an investigation of the possibility of second region access in the center of TFTR ''supershots.'' The instabilities found may coincide with experimental observation. Significant progress has been made on the resistive stability properties of high beta poloidal ''supershot'' discharges. For these studies profiles were taken from the TRANSP transport analysis code which analyzes experimental data. Invoking flattening of the pressure profile on mode rational surfaces causes tearing modes to persist into the experimental range of interest. Further, the experimental observation of the modes seems to be consistent with the predictions of the MHD model. In addition, code development in several areas has proceeded

  1. Regional Analysis of Energy, Water, Land and Climate Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tidwell, V. C.; Averyt, K.; Harriss, R. C.; Hibbard, K. A.; Newmark, R. L.; Rose, S. K.; Shevliakova, E.; Wilson, T.

    2014-12-01

    Energy, water, and land systems interact in many ways and are impacted by management and climate change. These systems and their interactions often differ in significant ways from region-to-region. To explore the coupled energy-water-land system and its relation to climate change and management a simple conceptual model of demand, endowment and technology (DET) is proposed. A consistent and comparable analysis framework is needed as climate change and resource management practices have the potential to impact each DET element, resource, and region differently. These linkages are further complicated by policy and trade agreements where endowments of one region are used to meet demands in another. This paper reviews the unique DET characteristics of land, energy and water resources across the United States. Analyses are conducted according to the eight geographic regions defined in the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Evident from the analyses are regional differences in resources endowments in land (strong East-West gradient in forest, cropland and desert), water (similar East-West gradient), and energy. Demands likewise vary regionally reflecting differences in population density and endowment (e.g., higher water use in West reflecting insufficient precipitation to support dryland farming). The effect of technology and policy are particularly evident in differences in the energy portfolios across the eight regions. Integrated analyses that account for the various spatial and temporal differences in regional energy, water and land systems are critical to informing effective policy requirements for future energy, climate and resource management. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  2. Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. French

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

  3. Interactive Building Design Space Exploration Using Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergård, Torben; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Maagaard, Steffen

    2017-01-01

    simulation inputs are most important and which have negligible influence on the model output. Popular sensitivity methods include the Morris method, variance-based methods (e.g. Sobol’s), and regression methods (e.g. SRC). However, all these methods only address one output at a time, which makes it difficult...... in combination with the interactive parallel coordinate plot (PCP). The latter is an effective tool to explore stochastic simulations and to find high-performing building designs. The proposed methods help decision makers to focus their attention to the most important design parameters when exploring......Monte Carlo simulations combined with regionalized sensitivity analysis provide the means to explore a vast, multivariate design space in building design. Typically, sensitivity analysis shows how the variability of model output relates to the uncertainties in models inputs. This reveals which...

  4. Scientist-Practitioner Engagement to Inform Regional Hydroclimate Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Jagannathan, K. A.; Ullrich, P. A.

    2017-12-01

    Water mangers face significant challenges in planning for the coming decades as previously stationary aspects of the regional hydroclimate shift in response to global climate change. Providing scientific insights that enable appropriate use of regional hydroclimate projections for planning is a non-trivial problem. The system of data, models, and methods used to produce regional hydroclimate projections is subject to multiple interacting uncertainties and biases, including uncertainties that arise from general circulation models, re-analysis data products, regional climate models, hydrologic models, and statistical downscaling methods. Moreover, many components of this system were not designed with the information needs of water managers in mind. To address this problem and provide actionable insights into the sources of uncertainty present in regional hydroclimate data products, Project Hyperion has undertaken a stakeholder engagement process in four case study water basins across the US. Teams of water managers and scientists are interacting in a structured manner to identify decision-relevant metrics of model performance. These metrics are in turn being used to drive scientific investigations to uncover the sources of uncertainty in these quantities. Thus far, we have found that identification of climate phenomena of interest to stakeholders is relatively easy, but translating these into specific quantifiable metrics and prioritizing metrics is more challenging. Iterative feedback among scientists and stakeholders has proven critical in resolving these challenges, as has the roles played by boundary spanners who understand and can speak to the perspectives of multiple professional communities. Here we describe the structured format of our engagement process and the lessons learned so far, as we aim to improve the decision-relevance of hydroclimate projections through a collaborative process.

  5. Process analysis of regional aerosol pollution during spring in the Pearl River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qi; Lan, Jing; Liu, Yiming; Wang, Xuemei; Chan, Pakwai; Hong, Yingying; Feng, Yerong; Liu, Yexin; Zeng, Yanjun; Liang, Guixiong

    2015-12-01

    A numerical simulation analysis was performed for three air pollution episodes in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region during March 2012 using the third-generation air quality modeling system Models-3/CMAQ. The results demonstrated that particulate matter was the primary pollutant for all three pollution episodes and was accompanied by relatively low visibility in the first two episodes. Weather maps indicate that the first two episodes occurred under the influence of warm, wet southerly air flow systems that led to high humidity throughout the region. The liquid phase reaction of gaseous pollutants resulted in the generation of fine secondary particles, which were identified as the primary source of pollution in the first two episodes. The third pollution episode occurred during a warming period following a cold front. Relative humidity was lower during this episode, and coarse particles were the major pollution contributor. Results of process analysis indicated that emissions sources, horizontal transport and vertical transport were the primary factors affecting pollutant concentrations within the near-surface layer during all three episodes, while aerosol processes, cloud processes, horizontal transport and vertical transport had greater influence at approximately 900 m above ground. Cloud processes had a greater impact during the first two pollution episodes because of the higher relative humidity. In addition, by comparing pollution processes from different cities (Guangzhou and Zhongshan), the study revealed that the first two pollution episodes were the result of local emissions within the PRD region and transport between surrounding cities, while the third episode exhibited prominent regional pollution characteristics and was the result of regional pollutant transport.

  6. Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.

    1979-10-01

    This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

  7. A Regional Analysis of Romanian Migration Determinants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena-Maria Prada

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the determinants of Romanian emigration considering two perspectives: first, the perspective of business environment and labour market and, second, the perspective of social and economic conditions. The analysis uses data from National Statistical Institute and Romanian Register of Commerce for all 42 counties of Romania for the year 2011 and consists of three linear regression models whose dependent variable was the total number of Romanian emigrants declared at 2011 Romanian Census. Results have shown that international migration is strongly correlated with national labour policy. The fact that newly created enterprises have a positive influence on migration show that Romanian business environment is not able to offer competitive salaries and/or working conditions.

  8. Regional scale analysis of the altimetric stream network evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Ghizzoni

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Floods result from the limited carrying capacity of stream channels when compared to the discharge peak value. The transit of flood waves - with the associated erosion and sedimentation processes - often modifies local stream geometry. In some cases this results in a reduction of the stream carrying capacity, and consequently in an enhancement of the flooding risk. A mathematical model for the prediction of potential altimetric stream network evolution due to erosion and sedimentation processes is here formalized. It works at the regional scale, identifying the tendency of river segments to sedimentation, stability, or erosion. The model builds on geomorphologic concepts, and derives its parameters from extensive surveys. As a case study, tendencies of rivers pertaining to the Valle d'Aosta region are analyzed. Some validation is provided both at regional and local scales of analysis. Local validation is performed both through a mathematical model able to simulate the temporal evolution of the stream profile, and through comparison of the prediction with ante and post-event river surveys, where available. Overall results are strongly encouraging. Possible use of the information derived from the model in the context of flood and landslide hazard mitigation is briefly discussed.

  9. Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanvyve, Emilie; Ypersele, Jean-Pascal van [Universite catholique de Louvain, Institut d' astronomie et de geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Hall, Nicholas [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales/Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales, Toulouse Cedex 9 (France); Messager, Christophe [University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science, Environment, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds (United Kingdom); Leroux, Stephanie [Universite Joseph Fourier, Laboratoire d' etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, BP53, Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)

    2008-02-15

    Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales. (orig.)

  10. Spatial data analysis for exploration of regional scale geothermal resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghaddam, Majid Kiavarz; Noorollahi, Younes; Samadzadegan, Farhad; Sharifi, Mohammad Ali; Itoi, Ryuichi

    2013-10-01

    Defining a comprehensive conceptual model of the resources sought is one of the most important steps in geothermal potential mapping. In this study, Fry analysis as a spatial distribution method and 5% well existence, distance distribution, weights of evidence (WofE), and evidential belief function (EBFs) methods as spatial association methods were applied comparatively to known geothermal occurrences, and to publicly-available regional-scale geoscience data in Akita and Iwate provinces within the Tohoku volcanic arc, in northern Japan. Fry analysis and rose diagrams revealed similar directional patterns of geothermal wells and volcanoes, NNW-, NNE-, NE-trending faults, hotsprings and fumaroles. Among the spatial association methods, WofE defined a conceptual model correspondent with the real world situations, approved with the aid of expert opinion. The results of the spatial association analyses quantitatively indicated that the known geothermal occurrences are strongly spatially-associated with geological features such as volcanoes, craters, NNW-, NNE-, NE-direction faults and geochemical features such as hotsprings, hydrothermal alteration zones and fumaroles. Geophysical data contains temperature gradients over 100 °C/km and heat flow over 100 mW/m2. In general, geochemical and geophysical data were better evidence layers than geological data for exploring geothermal resources. The spatial analyses of the case study area suggested that quantitative knowledge from hydrothermal geothermal resources was significantly useful for further exploration and for geothermal potential mapping in the case study region. The results can also be extended to the regions with nearly similar characteristics.

  11. The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

    2004-06-01

    The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

  12. A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard

    2016-04-01

    Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

  13. Regional analysis of ground and above-ground climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-12-01

    The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above ground climate control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dew point ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of Earth tempering as a practice and of specific Earth sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically; while the subsurface almost always provides a thermal advantage on its own terms when compared to above ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate control techniques. Reviews of above and below ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground are included. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 20 locations in the United States.

  14. Regional analysis of ground and above-ground climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-12-01

    The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long-term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above ground climate control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dew point ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of earth tempering as a practice and of specific earth-sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically; while the subsurface almost always provides a thermal advantage on its own terms when compared to above ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate control techniques. Also contained in the report are reviews of above and below ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 29 locations in the United States.

  15. Comparison of first order analysis and Monte Carlo methods in evaluating groundwater model uncertainty: a case study from an iron ore mine in the Pilbara Region of Western Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firmani, G.; Matta, J.

    2012-04-01

    The expansion of mining in the Pilbara region of Western Australia is resulting in the need to develop better water strategies to make below water table resources accessible, manage surplus water and deal with water demands for processing ore and construction. In all these instances, understanding the local and regional hydrogeology is fundamental to allow sustainable mining; minimising the impacts to the environment. An understanding of the uncertainties of the hydrogeology is necessary to quantify the risks and make objective decisions rather than relying on subjective judgements. The aim of this paper is to review some of the methods proposed by the published literature and find approaches that can be practically implemented in an attempt to estimate model uncertainties. In particular, this paper adopts two general probabilistic approaches that address the parametric uncertainty estimation and its propagation in predictive scenarios: the first order analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. A case example application of the two techniques is also presented for the dewatering strategy of a large below water table open cut iron ore mine in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. This study demonstrates the weakness of the deterministic approach, as the coefficients of variation of some model parameters were greater than 1.0; and suggests a review of the model calibration method and conceptualisation. The uncertainty propagation into predictive scenarios was calculated assuming the parameters with a coefficient of variation higher than 0.25 as deterministic, due to computational difficulties to achieve an accurate result with the Monte Carlo method. The conclusion of this case study was that the first order analysis appears to be a successful and simple tool when the coefficients of variation of calibrated parameters are less than 0.25.

  16. Investigating Performance Installation of Hospital Room Surgery of Six Hospitals in Special Region of Yogyakarta by Using Data Envelopment Analysis Model Constant Return to Scale

    OpenAIRE

    Bhimo Rizky Samudro; Yogi Pasca Pratama

    2018-01-01

    This study aims to investigate the efficiency level of hospital surgery hospital installation in Special Region of Yogyakarta Province. Research conceptual constructs are based on input and output performance in institutional performance processes. This research approach uses positivist pattern and is derived by quantitative method. This is to explain the efficiency pattern of the installation of hospital and private hospital surgery rooms. The quantitative method chosen is the concept of Dat...

  17. A methodology for the data energy regional consumption consistency analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canavarros, Otacilio Borges; Silva, Ennio Peres da

    1999-01-01

    The article introduces a methodology for data energy regional consumption consistency analysis. The work was going based on recent studies accomplished by several cited authors and boarded Brazilian matrices and Brazilian energetics regional balances. The results are compared and analyzed

  18. Forest growth modeling in the Southern Region, National Forest System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belcher, D.M.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses an attempt to combine individual tree growth models and stand level growth models currently available for the Region into one computer program. Operation of the program is explained and growth models are included

  19. Nuclear power regional analysis; Análisis regional de la nucleoelectricidad

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parera, María Delia, E-mail: dparera@cnea.gov.ar [Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica, San Martin (Argentina). Gerencia de Planificación Coordinación y Control, Subgerencia de Planificación Estratégica

    2011-07-01

    In this study, a regional analysis of the Argentine electricity market was carried out considering the effects of regional cooperation, national and international interconnections; additionally, the possibilities of insertion of new nuclear power plants in different regions were evaluated, indicating the most suitable areas for these facilities to increase the penetration of nuclear energy in national energy matrix. The interconnection of electricity markets and natural gas due to the linkage between both energy forms was also studied. With this purpose, MESSAGE program was used (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts), promoted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This model performs a country-level economic optimization, resulting in the minimum cost for the modelling system. Regionalization executed by the Wholesale Electricity Market Management Company (CAMMESA, by its Spanish acronym) that divides the country into eight regions. The characteristics and the needs of each region, their respective demands and supplies of electricity and natural gas, as well as existing and planned interconnections, consisting of power lines and pipelines were taken into account. According to the results obtained through the model, nuclear is a competitive option. (author) [Spanish] En el presente estudio se realizó un análisis regional del mercado eléctrico argentino contemplando los efectos de cooperación regional, las interconexiones internas e internacionales; y se evaluó las posibilidades de inserción de nuevas centrales nucleares en diferentes regiones del país, indicando las zonas más adecuadas para realizar estas instalaciones para aumentar la penetración de la energía nuclear en la matriz energética nacional. Asimismo se estudió la interconexión de los mercados de electricidad y gas natural, debido a la vinculación existente entre ambas formas de energía. Con este fin se utilizó el programa

  20. Data structures supporting multi-region adaptive isogeometric analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perduta, Anna; Putanowicz, Roman

    2018-01-01

    Since the first paper published in 2005 Isogeometric Analysis (IGA) has gained strong interest and found applications in many engineering problems. Despite the advancement of the method, there are still far fewer software implementations comparing to Finite Element Method. The paper presents an approach to the development of data structures that can support multi-region IGA with local mesh refinement (patch-based) and possible application in IGA-FEM models. The purpose of this paper is to share original design concepts, that authors have created while developing an IGA package, which other researchers may find beneficial for their own simulation codes.

  1. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  2. Probabilistic modelling and uncertainty analysis of flux and water balance changes in a regional aquifer system due to coal seam gas development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreekanth, J; Cui, Tao; Pickett, Trevor; Rassam, David; Gilfedder, Mat; Barrett, Damian

    2018-09-01

    Large scale development of coal seam gas (CSG) is occurring in many sedimentary basins around the world including Australia, where commercial production of CSG has started in the Surat and Bowen basins. CSG development often involves extraction of large volumes of water that results in depressurising aquifers that overlie and/or underlie the coal seams thus perturbing their flow regimes. This can potentially impact regional aquifer systems that are used for many purposes such as irrigation, and stock and domestic water. In this study, we adopt a probabilistic approach to quantify the depressurisation of the Gunnedah coal seams and how this impacts fluxes to, and from the overlying Great Artesian Basin (GAB) Pilliga Sandstone aquifer. The proposed method is suitable when effects of a new resource development activity on the regional groundwater balance needs to be assessed and account for large scale uncertainties in the groundwater flow system and proposed activity. The results indicated that the extraction of water and gas from the coal seam could potentially induce additional fluxes from the Pilliga Sandstone to the deeper formations due to lowering pressure heads in the coal seams. The median value of the rise in the maximum flux from the Pilliga Sandstone to the deeper formations is estimated to be 85ML/year, which is considered insignificant as it forms only about 0.29% of the Long Term Annual Average Extraction Limit of 30GL/year from the groundwater management area. The probabilistic simulation of the water balance components indicates only small changes being induced by CSG development that influence interactions of the Pilliga Sandstone with the overlying and underlying formations and with the surface water courses. The current analyses that quantified the potential maximum impacts of resource developments and how they influences the regional water balance, would greatly underpin future management decisions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  3. Geospatial Analysis Tool Kit for Regional Climate Datasets (GATOR) : An Open-source Tool to Compute Climate Statistic GIS Layers from Argonne Climate Modeling Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    This large repository of climate model results for North America (Wang and Kotamarthi 2013, 2014, 2015) is stored in Network Common Data Form (NetCDF...Network Common Data Form (NetCDF). UCAR/Unidata Program Center, Boulder, CO. Available at: http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/netcdf. Accessed on 6/20...parametric approach. This introduces uncertainty, because the parametric models are only as good as the available observations that form the basis for

  4. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): CNMI: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI)...

  5. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Samoa: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at approximately 3-km resolution....

  6. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Main Hawaiian Islands: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the main Hawaiian islands at approximately 4-km...

  7. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Main Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the main Hawaiian islands at approximately 4-km resolution. While...

  8. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Oahu: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 2-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the island of Oahu at approximately 1-km resolution....

  9. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Oahu South Shore

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 2-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the south shore of the island of Oahu at approximately 200-m resolution....

  10. REGIONAL FIRST ORDER PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY FLOWS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ceyhun ÖZÇELİK

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available First order periodic autoregressive models is of mostly used models in modeling of time dependency of hydrological flow processes. In these models, periodicity of the correlogram is preserved as well as time dependency of processes. However, the parameters of these models, namely, inter-monthly lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients may be often estimated erroneously from short samples, since they are statistics of high order moments. Therefore, to constitute a regional model may be a solution that can produce more reliable and decisive estimates, and derive models and model parameters in any required point of the basin considered. In this study, definitions of homogeneous region for lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients are made; five parametric and non parametric models are proposed to set regional models of lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients. Regional models are applied on 30 stream flow gauging stations in Seyhan and Ceyhan basins, and tested by criteria of relative absolute bias, simple and relative root of mean square errors.

  11. A Reusable Framework for Regional Climate Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, A. F.; Goodale, C. E.; Mattmann, C. A.; Lean, P.; Kim, J.; Zimdars, P.; Waliser, D. E.; Crichton, D. J.

    2011-12-01

    Climate observations are currently obtained through a diverse network of sensors and platforms that include space-based observatories, airborne and seaborne platforms, and distributed, networked, ground-based instruments. These global observational measurements are critical inputs to the efforts of the climate modeling community and can provide a corpus of data for use in analysis and validation of climate models. The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is an effort currently being undertaken to address the challenges of integrating this vast array of observational climate data into a coherent resource suitable for performing model analysis at the regional level. Developed through a collaboration between the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the UCLA Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering (JIFRESSE), the RCMES uses existing open source technologies (MySQL, Apache Hadoop, and Apache OODT), to construct a scalable, parametric, geospatial data store that incorporates decades of observational data from a variety of NASA Earth science missions, as well as other sources into a consistently annotated, highly available scientific resource. By eliminating arbitrary partitions in the data (individual file boundaries, differing file formats, etc), and instead treating each individual observational measurement as a unique, geospatially referenced data point, the RCMES is capable of transforming large, heterogeneous collections of disparate observational data into a unified resource suitable for comparison to climate model output. This facility is further enhanced by the availability of a model evaluation toolkit which consists of a set of Python libraries, a RESTful web service layer, and a browser-based graphical user interface that allows for orchestration of model-to-data comparisons by composing them visually through web forms. This combination of tools and interfaces dramatically simplifies the process of interacting with and

  12. Shallow landslide prediction and analysis with risk assessment using a spatial model in the coastal region in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camarinha, P. I. M.; Canavesi, V.; Alvalá, R. C. S.

    2013-10-01

    In Brazil, most of the disasters involving landslide occur in coastal regions, with population density concentrated on steep slopes. Thus, different approaches have been used to evaluate the landslide risk, although the greatest difficulty is related to the scarcity of spatial data with good quality. In this context, four cities located on the southeast coast of Brazil - Santos, Cubatão, Caraguatatuba and Ubatuba - in a region with the rough reliefs of the Serra do Mar and with a history of natural disasters were evaluated. Spatial prediction by fuzzy gamma technique was used for the landslide susceptibility mapping, considering environmental variables from data and software in the public domain. To validate the susceptibility mapping results, it was overlapped with risk sectors provided by the Geological Survey of Brazil (CPRM). A positive correlation was observed between the classes most susceptible and the location of these sectors. The results were also analyzed from the categorization of risk levels provided by CPRM. To compare the approach with other studies using landslide-scar maps, correlated indexes were evaluated, which also showed satisfactory results, thus indicating that the methodology presented is appropriate for risk assessment in urban areas and can be replicated to municipalities that do not have risk areas mapped.

  13. Regional Analysis of Remote Sensing Based Evapotranspiration Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geli, H. M. E.; Hain, C.; Anderson, M. C.; Senay, G. B.

    2017-12-01

    Recent research findings on modeling actual evapotranspiration (ET) using remote sensing data and methods have proven the ability of these methods to address wide range of hydrological and water resources issues including river basin water balance for improved water resources management, drought monitoring, drought impact and socioeconomic responses, agricultural water management, optimization of land-use for water conservations, water allocation agreement among others. However, there is still a critical need to identify appropriate type of ET information that can address each of these issues. The current trend of increasing demand for water due to population growth coupled with variable and limited water supply due to drought especially in arid and semiarid regions with limited water supply have highlighted the need for such information. To properly address these issues different spatial and temporal resolutions of ET information will need to be used. For example, agricultural water management applications require ET information at field (30-m) and daily time scales while for river basin hydrologic analysis relatively coarser spatial and temporal scales can be adequate for such regional applications. The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the potential of using an integrated ET information that can be used to address some of these issues collectively. This analysis will highlight efforts to address some of the issues that are applicable to New Mexico including assessment of statewide water budget as well as drought impact and socioeconomic responses which all require ET information but at different spatial and temporal scales. This analysis will provide an evaluation of four remote sensing based ET models including ALEXI, DisALEXI, SSEBop, and SEBAL3.0. The models will be compared with ground-based observations from eddy covariance towers and water balance calculations. Remote sensing data from Landsat, MODIS, and VIIRS sensors will be used to provide ET

  14. Regional trade market analysis: resort marketing approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    David C. Bojanic; Rodney B. Warnick

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines the value of geographic segmentation for a regional ski resort in New England. Customers from different user groups were surveyed along with a list of inquiries and a purchased list, and grouped according to their area of origin. An ANOVA was performed to determine if there were differences in attitudes and trip behaviors between the segments. It...

  15. Southeast Regional Clean Energy Policy Analysis (Revised)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLaren, J.

    2011-04-01

    More than half of the electricity produced in the southeastern states is fuelled by coal. Although the region produces some coal, most of the states depend heavily on coal imports. Many of the region's aging coal power facilities are planned for retirement within the next 20 years. However, estimates indicate that a 20% increase in capacity is needed over that time to meet the rapidly growing demand. The most common incentives for energy efficiency in the Southeast are loans and rebates; however, total public spending on energy efficiency is limited. The most common state-level policies to support renewable energy development are personal and corporate tax incentives and loans. The region produced 1.8% of the electricity from renewable resources other than conventional hydroelectricity in 2009, half of the national average. There is significant potential for development of a biomass market in the region, as well as use of local wind, solar, methane-to-energy, small hydro, and combined heat and power resources. Options are offered for expanding and strengthening state-level policies such as decoupling, integrated resource planning, building codes, net metering, and interconnection standards to support further clean energy development. Benefits would include energy security, job creation, insurance against price fluctuations, increased value of marginal lands, and local and global environmental paybacks.

  16. Southeast Regional Clean Energy Policy Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLaren, Joyce [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2011-04-01

    More than half of the electricity produced in the southeastern states is fuelled by coal. Although the region produces some coal, most of the states depend heavily on coal imports. Many of the region's aging coal power facilities are planned for retirement within the next 20 years. However, estimates indicate that a 20% increase in capacity is needed over that time to meet the rapidly growing demand. The most common incentives for energy efficiency in the Southeast are loans and rebates; however, total public spending on energy efficiency is limited. The most common state-level policies to support renewable energy development are personal and corporate tax incentives and loans. The region produced 1.8% of the electricity from renewable resources other than conventional hydroelectricity in 2009, half of the national average. There is significant potential for development of a biomass market in the region, as well as use of local wind, solar, methane-to-energy, small hydro, and combined heat and power resources. Options are offered for expanding and strengthening state-level policies such as decoupling, integrated resource planning, building codes, net metering, and interconnection standards to support further clean energy development. Benefits would include energy security, job creation, insurance against price fluctuations, increased value of marginal lands, and local and global environmental paybacks.

  17. Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2014-12-01

    Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

  18. TESTING TREE-CLASSIFIER VARIANTS AND ALTERNATE MODELING METHODOLOGIES IN THE EAST GREAT BASIN MAPPING UNIT OF THE SOUTHWEST REGIONAL GAP ANALYSIS PROJECT (SW REGAP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    We tested two methods for dataset generation and model construction, and three tree-classifier variants to identify the most parsimonious and thematically accurate mapping methodology for the SW ReGAP project. Competing methodologies were tested in the East Great Basin mapping un...

  19. Features of Balance Model Development of Exclave Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timur Rustamovich Gareev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the authors build a balance model for an exclave region. The aim of the work is to explore the unique properties of exclaves to evaluate the possibility of development of a more complex model for the economy of a region. Exclaves are strange phenomena in both theoretical and practical regional economy. There is lack of comparative models, so it is typically quite challenging to study exclaves. At the same time, exclaves produce better statistics, which gives more careful consideration of cross-regional economic flows. The authors discuss methodologies of model-based regional development forecasting. They analyze balance approach on a more general level of regional governance and individually, on the example of specific territories. Thus, they identify and explain the need to develop balance approach models fitted to the special needs of certain territories. By combining regional modeling for an exclave with traditional balance and simulation-based methods and event-based approach, they come up with a more detailed model for the economy of a region. Having taken one Russian exclave as an example, the authors have developed a simulation event-based long-term sustainability model. In the article, they provide the general characteristics of the model, describe its components, and simulation algorithm. The approach introduced in this article combines the traditional balance models and the peculiarities of an exclave region to develop a holistic regional economy model (with the Kaliningrad region serving as an example. It is important to underline that the resulting model helps to evaluate the degree of influence of preferential economic regimes (such as Free Customs Zone, for example on the economy of a region.

  20. The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Sanchez-Gomez, E. [Cerfacs/CNRS, SUC URA1875, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Goodess, C.M. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lenderink, G. [KNMI, Postbus 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark)

    2012-03-15

    Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM x GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

  1. A Multi-Region Model of Economic Growth with Human Capital and Negative Externalities in Innovation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

    2013-01-01

    We use a multi-region model and provide the first theoretical analysis of the effects of human capital use and a particular kind of innovative activity on economic growth. In each of the N heterogeneous regions in our model, consumers have constant relative risk aversion preferences, there are

  2. Model-Independent Analysis of the Neutron-Proton Final-State Interaction Region in the $\\pi\\pi \\to pn\\pi^+$ Reaction

    CERN Document Server

    Uzikov, Yu N

    2001-01-01

    Experimental data on the \\pi\\pi\\to pn\\pi^+ reaction measured in an exclusive two-arm experiment at 800 MeV show a narrow peak arising from the strong proton-neutron final-state interaction. It was claimed, within the framework of a certain model, that this peak contained up to a 25 % spin-singlet final-state contribution. By comparing the data with those of \\pi\\pi\\to d\\pi^+ in a largely model-independent way, it is here demonstrated that at all the angles measured the whole of the peak could be explained as being due to spin-triplet final states, with the spin-singlet being at most a few percent. Good qualitative agreement with the measured proton analysing power is also found within this approach.

  3. Consistency and Reconciliation Model In Regional Development Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dina Suryawati

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to identify the problems and determine the conceptual model of regional development planning. Regional development planning is a systemic, complex and unstructured process. Therefore, this study used soft systems methodology to outline unstructured issues with a structured approach. The conceptual models that were successfully constructed in this study are a model of consistency and a model of reconciliation. Regional development planning is a process that is well-integrated with central planning and inter-regional planning documents. Integration and consistency of regional planning documents are very important in order to achieve the development goals that have been set. On the other hand, the process of development planning in the region involves technocratic system, that is, both top-down and bottom-up system of participation. Both must be balanced, do not overlap and do not dominate each other. regional, development, planning, consistency, reconciliation

  4. Target-oriented obstacle analysis by PESTEL modeling of energy efficiency retrofit for existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shilei, Lv [School of Environment Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China); Yong, Wu [Department of Science and Technology, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People' s Republic of China, Beijing 100835 (China)

    2009-06-15

    According to the 'Comprehensive Work Program of Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction' of the Chinese government, during the period of the '11th Five-Year Plan', 1.5 x 10{sup 8} m{sup 2} of existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region are to be retrofitted for energy efficiency. However, at present, this 'Energy Efficiency Retrofit for Existing Residential Buildings' (EERFERB) faces many obstacles. Under the current working and market system, both the central and local governments and the energy supply companies can not push on this work smoothly. Using both the results of the annual national special inspection of building energy efficiency and some case analyses, this paper examines the necessity for energy efficiency retrofit, along with the relationships among the various Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal (PESTEL) factors affecting it. Furthermore, organizational, financial and technical support systems are explored to promote the development of retrofit. Finally, some primary principles to be followed toward the implementation of EERFERB are suggested. (author)

  5. Target-oriented obstacle analysis by PESTEL modeling of energy efficiency retrofit for existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shilei, Lv; Wu Yong

    2009-01-01

    According to the 'Comprehensive Work Program of Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction' of the Chinese government, during the period of the '11th Five-Year Plan', 1.5x10 8 m 2 of existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region are to be retrofitted for energy efficiency. However, at present, this 'Energy Efficiency Retrofit for Existing Residential Buildings' (EERFERB) faces many obstacles. Under the current working and market system, both the central and local governments and the energy supply companies can not push on this work smoothly. Using both the results of the annual national special inspection of building energy efficiency and some case analyses, this paper examines the necessity for energy efficiency retrofit, along with the relationships among the various Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal (PESTEL) factors affecting it. Furthermore, organizational, financial and technical support systems are explored to promote the development of retrofit. Finally, some primary principles to be followed toward the implementation of EERFERB are suggested.

  6. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  7. Identification of homogeneous regions for rainfall regional frequency analysis considering typhoon event in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heo, J. H.; Ahn, H.; Kjeldsen, T. R.

    2017-12-01

    South Korea is prone to large, and often disastrous, rainfall events caused by a mixture of monsoon and typhoon rainfall phenomena. However, traditionally, regional frequency analysis models did not consider this mixture of phenomena when fitting probability distributions, potentially underestimating the risk posed by the more extreme typhoon events. Using long-term observed records of extreme rainfall from 56 sites combined with detailed information on the timing and spatial impact of past typhoons from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), this study developed and tested a new mixture model for frequency analysis of two different phenomena; events occurring regularly every year (monsoon) and events only occurring in some years (typhoon). The available annual maximum 24 hour rainfall data were divided into two sub-samples corresponding to years where the annual maximum is from either (1) a typhoon event, or (2) a non-typhoon event. Then, three-parameter GEV distribution was fitted to each sub-sample along with a weighting parameter characterizing the proportion of historical events associated with typhoon events. Spatial patterns of model parameters were analyzed and showed that typhoon events are less commonly associated with annual maximum rainfall in the North-West part of the country (Seoul area), and more prevalent in the southern and eastern parts of the country, leading to the formation of two distinct typhoon regions: (1) North-West; and (2) Southern and Eastern. Using a leave-one-out procedure, a new regional frequency model was tested and compared to a more traditional index flood method. The results showed that the impact of typhoon on design events might previously have been underestimated in the Seoul area. This suggests that the use of the mixture model should be preferred where the typhoon phenomena is less frequent, and thus can have a significant effect on the rainfall-frequency curve. This research was supported by a grant(2017-MPSS31

  8. Brookhaven Regional Energy Facility Siting Model (REFS): model development and application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meier, P.; Hobbs, B.; Ketcham, G.; McCoy, M.; Stern, R.

    1979-06-01

    A siting methodology developed specifically to bridge the gap between regional-energy-system scenarios and environmental transport models is documented. Development of the model is described in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 described the basic structure of such a model. Additional chapters on model development cover: generation, transmission, demand disaggregation, the interface to other models, computational aspects, the coal sector, water resource considerations, and air quality considerations. These subjects comprise Part I. Part II, Model Applications, covers: analysis of water resource constraints, water resource issues in the New York Power Pool, water resource issues in the New England Power Pool, water resource issues in the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland Power Pool, and a summary of water resource constraint analysis. (MCW)

  9. Transient, two-dimensional, discrete-element, far-field model for thermal impact analysis of power plant discharges in coastal and offshore regions. Part I. General description of the mathematical model and the results of an application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eraslan, A.H.

    1975-02-01

    A far-field mathematical model is presented for numerical simulation of short-time (within tidal cycle) transient, two-dimensional temperature distributions in large coastal and offshore regions resulting from the condenser cooling water discharges of power plants. The Eulerian FLIDE (fluid-in-discrete-element) formulation employs the integral forms of the conservation principles for mass and thermal energy in variable-sized discrete elements that span the specific flow region. The contributions of vertical variations of the velocity components and temperature are rigorously incorporated in the development of depth-averaged, two-dimensional energy transport fluxes by spatially integrating the conservation equations over the enclosure surfaces of the discrete elements. The general mathematical formulation considers completely arbitrary, transient oceanic flow conditions, which include periodic tidal, geostrophic, and wind-induced currents, as locally specified inputs to the model. The thermal impact of a hypothetical, multiunit generating station in a coastal region is analyzed where the oceanic flow conditions are assumed to be strictly periodic tidal currents within any appreciable net drift of sufficient duration to remove the heated effluent. The numerical simulation indicates that the periodic flow conditions cause considerable variations in the temperature distributions during the day and the tidal cycles, which result in severe recirculation and re-entrainment of the heated water between the intakes and the discharges of the different units. This leads to a gradual, long-term increase of the temperatures in the immediate vicinity of the discharge structures and also in the far-field zone. (U.S.)

  10. Cooperative credit banks and regional growth: creation of a local development model and analysis of the «G. Toniolo» Cooperative Credit Bank in San Cataldo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimo Cermelli

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The economic crisis has called into question not only the banking systems, but also the development model. Cooperative credit banks have returned to occupy a central role, demonstrating with his broad background that another way of providing financial services can exist. In Italy, cooperative credit banks are principal players in the banking economic system. One of those banks is the «G. Toniolo», which has become over the years a reference in the local banking system.Received: 07.06.2015Accepted: 30.07.2015

  11. Abilities and limitations in the use of regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koeltzov, Morten Andreas Oedegaard

    2012-11-01

    In order to say something about the effect of climate change at the regional level, one takes in use regional climate models. In these models the thesis introduce regional features, which are not included in the global climate models (which are basically in climate research). Regional models can provide good and useful climate projections that add more value than the global climate models, but also introduces an uncertainty in the calculations. How should this uncertainty affect the use of regional climate models?The most common methodology for calculating potential future climate developments are based on different scenarios of possible emissions of greenhouse gases. These scenarios operates as global climate models using physical laws and calculate possible future developments. This is considered mathematical complexed and processes with limited supercomputing capacity calculates the global models for the larger scale of the climate system. To study the effects of climate change are regional details required and the regional models used therefore in a limited area of the climate system. These regional models are driven by data from the global models and refines and improves these data. Impact studies can then use the data from the regional models or data which are further processed to provide more local details using geo-statistical methods. In the preparation of the climate projections is there a minimum of 4 sources of uncertainty. This uncertainty is related to the provision of emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, uncertainties related to the use of global climate models, uncertainty related to the use of regional climate models and the uncertainty of internal variability in the climate system. This thesis discusses the use of regional climate models, and illustrates how the regional climate model adds value to climate projections, and at the same time introduce uncertainty in the calculations. It discusses in particular the importance of the choice of

  12. Modelling smart energy systems in tropical regions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dominkovic, D. F.; Dobravec, V.; Jiang, Y.

    2018-01-01

    and water desalination sectors. Five different large scale storages were modelled, too. The developed linear optimization model further included endogenous decisions about the share of district versus individual cooling, implementation of energy efficiency solutions and implementation of demand response...... emissions, 15% higher particulate matter emissions and 2% larger primary energy consumption compared to a business-as-usual case....

  13. Regional subsidence modelling in Murcia city (SE Spain using 1-D vertical finite element analysis and 2-D interpolation of ground surface displacements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Tessitore

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Subsidence is a hazard that may have natural or anthropogenic origin causing important economic losses. The area of Murcia city (SE Spain has been affected by subsidence due to groundwater overexploitation since the year 1992. The main observed historical piezometric level declines occurred in the periods 1982–1984, 1992–1995 and 2004–2008 and showed a close correlation with the temporal evolution of ground displacements. Since 2008, the pressure recovery in the aquifer has led to an uplift of the ground surface that has been detected by the extensometers. In the present work an elastic hydro-mechanical finite element code has been used to compute the subsidence time series for 24 geotechnical boreholes, prescribing the measured groundwater table evolution. The achieved results have been compared with the displacements estimated through an advanced DInSAR technique and measured by the extensometers. These spatio-temporal comparisons have showed that, in spite of the limited geomechanical data available, the model has turned out to satisfactorily reproduce the subsidence phenomenon affecting Murcia City. The model will allow the prediction of future induced deformations and the consequences of any piezometric level variation in the study area.

  14. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  15. Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob

    2010-01-01

    Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...... described by the standard winds derived from the REMO pressure data. The mean wind parameters include the directional wind distribution, directional and omni-directional mean values and Weibull fitting parameters, spectral analysis and interannual variability of the standard winds. It was also found that......, on average, the wind characteristics from REMO are in better agreement with observations than those derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis pressure data. The spatial correlation of REMO surface winds in Europe...

  16. Source-Type Identification Analysis Using Regional Seismic Moment Tensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, A.; Dreger, D. S.; Ford, S. R.; Walter, W. R.

    2012-12-01

    Waveform inversion to determine the seismic moment tensor is a standard approach in determining the source mechanism of natural and manmade seismicity, and may be used to identify, or discriminate different types of seismic sources. The successful applications of the regional moment tensor method at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the 2006 and 2009 North Korean nuclear tests (Ford et al., 2009a, 2009b, 2010) show that the method is robust and capable for source-type discrimination at regional distances. The well-separated populations of explosions, earthquakes and collapses on a Hudson et al., (1989) source-type diagram enables source-type discrimination; however the question remains whether or not the separation of events is universal in other regions, where we have limited station coverage and knowledge of Earth structure. Ford et al., (2012) have shown that combining regional waveform data and P-wave first motions removes the CLVD-isotropic tradeoff and uniquely discriminating the 2009 North Korean test as an explosion. Therefore, including additional constraints from regional and teleseismic P-wave first motions enables source-type discrimination at regions with limited station coverage. We present moment tensor analysis of earthquakes and explosions (M6) from Lop Nor and Semipalatinsk test sites for station paths crossing Kazakhstan and Western China. We also present analyses of smaller events from industrial sites. In these sparse coverage situations we combine regional long-period waveforms, and high-frequency P-wave polarity from the same stations, as well as from teleseismic arrays to constrain the source type. Discrimination capability with respect to velocity model and station coverage is examined, and additionally we investigate the velocity model dependence of vanishing free-surface traction effects on seismic moment tensor inversion of shallow sources and recovery of explosive scalar moment. Our synthetic data tests indicate that biases in scalar

  17. Optimization of Regional Geodynamic Models for Mantle Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knepley, M.; Isaac, T.; Jadamec, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    The SubductionGenerator program is used to construct high resolution, 3D regional thermal structures for mantle convection simulations using a variety of data sources, including sea floor ages and geographically referenced 3D slab locations based on seismic observations. The initial bulk temperature field is constructed using a half-space cooling model or plate cooling model, and related smoothing functions based on a diffusion length-scale analysis. In this work, we seek to improve the 3D thermal model and test different model geometries and dynamically driven flow fields using constraints from observed seismic velocities and plate motions. Through a formal adjoint analysis, we construct the primal-dual version of the multi-objective PDE-constrained optimization problem for the plate motions and seismic misfit. We have efficient, scalable preconditioners for both the forward and adjoint problems based upon a block preconditioning strategy, and a simple gradient update is used to improve the control residual. The full optimal control problem is formulated on a nested hierarchy of grids, allowing a nonlinear multigrid method to accelerate the solution.

  18. Natural recharge estimation and uncertainty analysis of an adjudicated groundwater basin using a regional-scale flow and subsidence model (Antelope Valley, California, USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siade, Adam J.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Martin, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater has provided 50–90 % of the total water supply in Antelope Valley, California (USA). The associated groundwater-level declines have led the Los Angeles County Superior Court of California to recently rule that the Antelope Valley groundwater basin is in overdraft, i.e., annual pumpage exceeds annual recharge. Natural recharge consists primarily of mountain-front recharge and is an important component of the total groundwater budget in Antelope Valley. Therefore, natural recharge plays a major role in the Court’s decision. The exact quantity and distribution of natural recharge is uncertain, with total estimates from previous studies ranging from 37 to 200 gigaliters per year (GL/year). In order to better understand the uncertainty associated with natural recharge and to provide a tool for groundwater management, a numerical model of groundwater flow and land subsidence was developed. The transient model was calibrated using PEST with water-level and subsidence data; prior information was incorporated through the use of Tikhonov regularization. The calibrated estimate of natural recharge was 36 GL/year, which is appreciably less than the value used by the court (74 GL/year). The effect of parameter uncertainty on the estimation of natural recharge was addressed using the Null-Space Monte Carlo method. A Pareto trade-off method was also used to portray the reasonableness of larger natural recharge rates. The reasonableness of the 74 GL/year value and the effect of uncertain pumpage rates were also evaluated. The uncertainty analyses indicate that the total natural recharge likely ranges between 34.5 and 54.3 GL/year.

  19. Regional Dimensions of the Triple Helix Model: Setting the Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todeva, Emanuela; Danson, Mike

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces the rationale for the special issue and its contributions, which bridge the literature on regional development and the Triple Helix model. The concept of the Triple Helix at the sub-national, and specifically regional, level is established and examined, with special regard to regional economic development founded on…

  20. "Special Issue": Regional Dimensions of the Triple Helix Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todeva, Emanuela; Danson, Mike

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces the rationale for the special issue and its contributions, which bridge the literature on regional development and the Triple Helix model. The concept of the Triple Helix at the sub-national, and specifically regional, level is established and examined, with special regard to regional economic development founded on…

  1. Recent Vs. Historical Seismicity Analysis For Banat Seismic Region (Western Part Of Romania)

    OpenAIRE

    Oros Eugen; Diaconescu Mihai

    2015-01-01

    The present day seismic activity from a region reflects the active tectonics and can confirm the seismic potential of the seismogenic sources as they are modelled using the historical seismicity. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the last decade seismicity recorded in the Banat Seismic Region (western part of Romania) and the historical seismicity of the region (Mw≥4.0). Four significant earthquake sequences have been recently localized in the region, three of them nearby the city of...

  2. Numerical modeling of regional stress distributions for geothermal exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillon, Theophile; Peter-Borie, Mariane; Gentier, Sylvie; Blaisonneau, Arnold

    2017-04-01

    zones family sets and their priority rule. In the second step, the physical model must be established, including constitutive equations for the rock mass and the fault zones, initial state and boundary conditions. At such large scales, physical laws and parameters are difficult to assess and must be constrained by sensitivity analysis. In the last step of the study, the results can be interpreted to highlight areas where the mechanical conditions favor the presence of a geothermal resource. The DEM enables accounting for the strong stress redistributions inherent to highly-segmented geometries, and to the dilational opening of fault zones under shearing. A 130x150 square-kilometers region within the Upper Rhine Graben is used as a case-study to illustrate the building and interpretation of a regional stress model.

  3. Detailed facies analysis of the Upper Cretaceous Tununk Shale Member, Henry Mountains Region, Utah: Implications for mudstone depositional models in epicontinental seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhiyang; Schieber, Juergen

    2018-02-01

    Lower-Middle Turonian strata of the Tununk Shale Member of the greater Mancos Shale were deposited along the western margin of the Cretaceous Western Interior Seaway during the Greenhorn second-order sea level cycle. In order to examine depositional controls on facies development in this mudstone-rich succession, this study delineates temporal and spatial relationships in a process-sedimentologic-based approach. The 3-dimensional expression of mudstone facies associations and their stratal architecture is assessed through a fully integrative physical and biologic characterization as exposed in outcrops in south-central Utah. Sedimentologic characteristics from the millimeter- to kilometer-scale are documented in order to fully address the complex nature of sediment transport mechanisms observed in this shelf muddy environment. The resulting facies model developed from this characterization consists of a stack of four lithofacies packages including: 1) carbonate-bearing, silty and sandy mudstone (CSSM), 2) silt-bearing, calcareous mudstone (SCM), 3) carbonate-bearing, silty mudstone to muddy siltstone (CMS), and 4) non-calcareous, silty and sandy mudstone (SSM). Spatial and temporal variations in lithofacies type and sedimentary facies characteristics indicate that the depositional environments of the Tununk Shale shifted in response to the 2nd-order Greenhorn transgressive-regressive sea-level cycle. During this eustatic event, the Tununk shows a characteristic vertical shift from distal middle shelf to outer shelf (CSSM to SCM facies), then from outer shelf to inner shelf environment (SCM to CMS, and to SSM facies). Shifting depositional environments, as well as changes in dominant paleocurrent direction throughout this succession, indicate multiple source areas and transport mechanisms (i.e. longshore currents, offshore-directed underflows, storm reworking). This study provides a rare documentation of the Greenhorn cycle as exposed across the entire shelf setting

  4. SDI CFD MODELING ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, S.

    2011-05-05

    The Savannah River Remediation (SRR) Organization requested that Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) develop a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) method to mix and blend the miscible contents of the blend tanks to ensure the contents are properly blended before they are transferred from the blend tank; such as, Tank 50H, to the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) feed tank. The work described here consists of two modeling areas. They are the mixing modeling analysis during miscible liquid blending operation, and the flow pattern analysis during transfer operation of the blended liquid. The transient CFD governing equations consisting of three momentum equations, one mass balance, two turbulence transport equations for kinetic energy and dissipation rate, and one species transport were solved by an iterative technique until the species concentrations of tank fluid were in equilibrium. The steady-state flow solutions for the entire tank fluid were used for flow pattern analysis, for velocity scaling analysis, and the initial conditions for transient blending calculations. A series of the modeling calculations were performed to estimate the blending times for various jet flow conditions, and to investigate the impact of the cooling coils on the blending time of the tank contents. The modeling results were benchmarked against the pilot scale test results. All of the flow and mixing models were performed with the nozzles installed at the mid-elevation, and parallel to the tank wall. From the CFD modeling calculations, the main results are summarized as follows: (1) The benchmark analyses for the CFD flow velocity and blending models demonstrate their consistency with Engineering Development Laboratory (EDL) and literature test results in terms of local velocity measurements and experimental observations. Thus, an application of the established criterion to SRS full scale tank will provide a better, physically-based estimate of the required mixing time, and

  5. Analysis of regional scale risk to whirling disease in populations of Colorado and Rio Grande cutthroat trout using Bayesian belief network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolb Ayre, Kimberley; Caldwell, Colleen A.; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction and spread of the parasite Myxobolus cerebralis, the causative agent of whirling disease, has contributed to the collapse of wild trout populations throughout the intermountain west. Of concern is the risk the disease may have on conservation and recovery of native cutthroat trout. We employed a Bayesian belief network to assess probability of whirling disease in Colorado River and Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus and Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis, respectively) within their current ranges in the southwest United States. Available habitat (as defined by gradient and elevation) for intermediate oligochaete worm host, Tubifex tubifex, exerted the greatest influence on the likelihood of infection, yet prevalence of stream barriers also affected the risk outcome. Management areas that had the highest likelihood of infected Colorado River cutthroat trout were in the eastern portion of their range, although the probability of infection was highest for populations in the southern, San Juan subbasin. Rio Grande cutthroat trout had a relatively low likelihood of infection, with populations in the southernmost Pecos management area predicted to be at greatest risk. The Bayesian risk assessment model predicted the likelihood of whirling disease infection from its principal transmission vector, fish movement, and suggested that barriers may be effective in reducing risk of exposure to native trout populations. Data gaps, especially with regard to location of spawning, highlighted the importance in developing monitoring plans that support future risk assessments and adaptive management for subspecies of cutthroat trout.

  6. Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. McKenzie; S.M. O' Neill; N. Larkin; R.A. Norheim

    2006-01-01

    Visibility impairment from regional haze is a significant problem throughout the continental United States. A substantial portion of regional haze is produced by smoke from prescribed and wildland fires. Here we describe the integration of four simulation models, an array of GIS raster layers, and a set of algorithms for fire-danger calculations into a modeling...

  7. A Preliminary Tsunami Vulnerability Analysis for Yenikapi Region in Istanbul

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceren Cankaya, Zeynep; Suzen, Lutfi; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kolat, Cagil; Aytore, Betul; Zaytsev, Andrey

    2015-04-01

    One of the main requirements during post disaster recovery operations is to maintain proper transportation and fluent communication at the disaster areas. Ports and harbors are the main transportation hubs which must work with proper performance at all times especially after the disasters. Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis have major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Istanbul is a mega city with its various coastal utilities located at the north coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapi region of Istanbul, there are critical coastal utilities and vulnerable coastal structures and critical activities occur daily. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, water front commercial and/or recreational structures are some of the examples of coastal utilization which are vulnerable against marine disasters. Therefore their vulnerability under tsunami or any other marine hazard to Yenikapi region of Istanbul is an important issue. In this study, a methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack is proposed with the applications to Yenikapi region. In the study, high resolution (1m) GIS database of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed by using GIS implementation. The bathymetry and topography database and the vector dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the study area are obtained for tsunami numerical modeling for the study area. GIS based tsunami vulnerability assessment is conducted by applying the Multi-criteria Decision Making Analysis (MCDA). The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability parameters in the region due to two different classifications i) vulnerability of buildings/structures and ii) vulnerability of (human) evacuation

  8. ALTERNATIVE MODELS OF FINANCING REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina, GRADEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Public financing of infrastructure proved under performing at uneconomic prices, and because of political interference in the management of funds, understanding the problem leading to the adoption of private funding variant, an effective way of private funding being the financing of the project. Project financing is a concept that assessed by means of financing a specific technique. In this context, those granting funds usually through loans typically are only interested in cash flows and project profit, which are a source of funds for repayment of loans; they are less interested in the creditworthiness of those employed in the project (organizations, governments, communities and so on. This approach has led to the emergence of new ways of financing projects, new types of projects, such as regional and rural development.

  9. Modeling the explosion-source region: An overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glenn, L.A.

    1993-01-01

    The explosion-source region is defined as the region surrounding an underground explosion that cannot be described by elastic or anelastic theory. This region extends typically to ranges up to 1 km/(kt) 1/3 but for some purposes, such as yield estimation via hydrodynamic means (CORRTEX and HYDRO PLUS), the maximum range of interest is less by an order of magnitude. For the simulation or analysis of seismic signals, however, what is required is the time resolved motion and stress state at the inelastic boundary. Various analytic approximations have been made for these boundary conditions, but since they rely on near-field empirical data they cannot be expected to reliably extrapolate to different explosion sites. More important, without some knowledge of the initial energy density and the characteristics of the medium immediately surrounding the explosion, these simplified models are unable to distinguish chemical from nuclear explosions, identify cavity decoupling, or account for such phenomena as anomalous dissipation via pore collapse

  10. Use of regional climate model simulations as an input for hydrological models for the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akhtar, M.; Ahmad, N.; Booij, Martijn J.

    2009-01-01

    The most important climatological inputs required for the calibration and validation of hydrological models are temperature and precipitation that can be derived from observational records or alternatively from regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, meteorological station observations and

  11. Analysis of Regional GPS Networks in Eastern Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samadi Alinia, H.; Tiampo, K. F.

    2014-12-01

    Although stable, intraplate region of eastern Canada is considered low rate deformation area in the North American plate, the retreat of large ice sheets during deglaciation in the last 20 ka has resulted in horizontal and vertical deformation of the Earth's in eastern Ontario. Present-day glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) uplift rates approach 10 mm/yr or more at Hudson Bay and decrease with distance southeastward. Current GIA models forecast that the hinge line between uplift to the northwest and subsidence to the southeast lies somewhere near the Saint Lawrence valley in eastern Canada [Tushingham and Peltier, 1991; Peltier, 2002]. Employing continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) observations and high precision tools for processing and then analyzing each component of derived time series are important tools to monitor the associated regional crustal deformation with good accuracies. Here we describe the analysis of coordinate time series of cGPS stations scattered sparsely throughout southeastern Ontario and between Ottawa and the east coast of Hudson Bay. Here, the two most reliable local networks, each including 4 to 6 reference stations, were selected for analysis. Data for period of approximately five years, 2008-2012.9, was processed with Bernese 5.0 over several campaigns. Individual cGPS coordinate time series were generated for each station and basic parameters, such as mean, variance and repeatability, were estimated. The time series are corrected with respect to the rigid plate motion and seasonal variations and advanced time series analysis techniques, including spectral analysis and principal component analysis were implemented. Post-processing of the time series reproduces the general GIA spatial pattern. Results also show that the vertical velocities of all stations in the solution are consistent with the GIA model uplift rate and are consistent with other cGPS sites in eastern Canada and increases from north of lake of Ontario (approximately

  12. Zooming in on cirrus with the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanof, C.; Stefanof, A.; Beaulne, A.; Munoz Alpizar, R.; Szyrmer, W.; Blanchet, J.

    2004-05-01

    The Canadian Regional Climate Model plus a microphysical scheme: two-moments microphysics with three hydrometeor categories (cloud liquid water, pristine ice crystals and larger precipitation crystals) is used to test the simulation in forecast mode using ECMWF data at 0.4 X 0.4 degree. We are zooming in on cirrus at higher resolutions (9, 1.8, 0.36 km). We are currently using the data set measured in APEX-E3, measurements of radar, lidar, passive instruments and interpreted microphysics for some flights (G-II, C404, B200). The radar and lidar data are available for high level cirrus. The south west of Japon is the flight region. The dates are March 20, March 27 and April 2, 2003. We first focus on the March 27 frontal system. We did a rigorous synoptical analysis for the cases. The cirrus at 360 m resolution are simulated. The cloud structure and some similarities between model simulation and observations will be presented.

  13. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

  14. [Cultural regionalization for Notopterygium incisum based on 3S technology platform. I. Evaluation for growth suitability for N. incisum based on ecological factors analysis by Maxent and ArcGIS model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Hong-bing; Sun, Hui; Jiang, Shun-yuan; Zhou, Yi; Cao, Wen-long; Ji, Ming-chang; Zhy, Wen-tao; Yan, Han-jing

    2015-03-01

    Growth suitability as assessment indicators for medicinal plants cultivation was proposed based on chemical quality determination and ecological factors analysis by Maxent and ArcGIS model. Notopterygium incisum, an endangered Chinese medicinal plant, was analyzed as a case, its potential distribution areas at different suitability grade and regionalization map were formulated based on growth suitability theory. The results showed that the most suitable habitats is Sichuan province, and more than 60% of the most suitable areawas located in the western Sichuan such as Aba and Ganzi prefectures for N. incisum. The results indicated that habitat altitude, average air temperature in September, and vegetation types were the dominant factors contributing to the grade of plant growth, precipitation and slope were the major factors contributing to notopterol accumulation in its underground parts, while isoimperatorin in its underground parts was negatively corelated with precipitation and slope of its habitat. However, slope as a factor influencing chemical components seemed to be a pseudo corelationship. Therefore, there were distinguishing differences between growth suitability and quality suitability for medicinal plants, which was helpful to further research and practice of cultivation regionalization, wild resource monitoring and large-scale cultivation of traditional Chinese medicine plants.

  15. [Cultural regionalization for Coptis chinensis based on 3S technology platform Ⅰ. Study on growth suitability for Coptis chinensis based on ecological factors analysis by Maxent and ArcGIS model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xin; Yang, Yan-Fang; Song, Hong-Ping; Zhang, Xiao-Bo; Huang, Lu-Qi; Wu, He-Zhen

    2016-09-01

    At the urgent request of Coptis chinensis planting,growth suitability as assessment indicators for C. chinensis cultivation was proposed and analyzed in this paper , based on chemical quality determination and ecological fators analysis by Maxent and ArcGIS model. Its potential distribution areas at differernt suitability grade and regionalization map were formulated based on statistical theory and growth suitability theory. The results showed that the most suitable habitats is some parts of Chongqing and Hubei province, such as Shizhu, Lichuan, Wulong, Wuxi, Enshi. There are seven ecological factor is the main ecological factors affect the growth of Coptidis Rhizoma, including altitude, precipitation in February and September and the rise of precipitation and altitude is conducive to the accumulation of total alkaloid content in C. chinensis. Therefore, The results of the study not only illustrates the most suitable for the surroundings of Coptidis Rhizoma, also helpful to further research and practice of cultivation regionalization, wild resource monitoring and large-scale cultivation of traditional Chinese medicine plants. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

  16. Challenges from variation across regions in cost effectiveness analysis in multi-regional clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunbo Chu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Economic evaluation in the form of cost-effectiveness analysis has become a popular means to inform decisions in healthcare. With multi-regional clinical trials in a global development program becoming a new venue for drug efficacy testing in recent decades, questions in methods for cost-effectiveness analysis in the multi-regional clinical trials setting also emerge. This paper addresses some challenges from variation across regions in cost effectiveness analysis in multi-regional clinical trials. Several discussion points are raised for further attention and a multi-regional clinical trial example is presented to illustrate the implications in industrial application. A general message is delivered to call for a depth discussion by all stakeholders to reach an agreement on a good practice in cost-effectiveness analysis in the multi-regional clinical trials. Meanwhile, we recommend an additional consideration of cost-effectiveness analysis results based on the clinical evidence from a certain homogeneous population as sensitivity or scenario analysis upon data availability.

  17. Regional Spectral Model simulations of the summertime regional climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ching-Teng Lee; Ming-Chin Wu; Shyh-Chin Chen

    2005-01-01

    The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) version 97 was used to investigate the regional summertime climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas for June-July-August of 1990 through 2000. The simulated sea-level-pressure and wind fields of RSM1 with 50-km grid space are similar to the reanalysis, but the strength of the...

  18. Geophysical analysis for the Ada Tepe region (Bulgaria) - case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifonova, Petya; Metodiev, Metodi; Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stela; Vatseva, Rumiana

    2013-04-01

    According to the current archeological investigations Ada Tepe is the oldest gold mine in Europe with Late Bronze and Early Iron age. It is a typical low-sulfidation epithermal gold deposit and is hosted in Maastrichtian-Paleocene sedimentary rocks above a detachment fault contact with underlying Paleozoic metamorphic rocks. Ada Tepe (25o.39'E; 41o.25'N) is located in the Eastern Rhodope unit. The region is highly segmented despite the low altitude (470-750 m) due to widespread volcanic and sediment rocks susceptible to torrential erosion during the cold season. Besides the thorough geological exploration focused on identifying cost-effective stocks of mineral resources, a detailed geophysical analysis concernig diferent stages of the gold extraction project was accomplished. We present the main results from the geophysical investigation aimed to clarify the complex seismotectonic setting of the Ada Tepe site region. The overall study methodology consists of collecting, reviewing and estimating geophysical and seismological information to constrain the model used for seismic hazard assessment of the area. Geophysical information used in the present work consists of gravity, geomagnetic and seismological data. Interpretation of gravity data is applied to outline the axes of steep gravity transitions marked as potential axes of faults, flexures and other structures of dislocation. Direct inverse techniques are also utilized to estimate the form and depth of anomalous sources. For the purposes of seismological investigation of the Ada Tepe site region an earthquake catalogue is compiled for the time period 510BC - 2011AD. Statistical parameters of seismicity - annual seismic rate parameter, ?, and the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter exponential relation for Ada Tepe site region, are estimated. All geophysical datasets and derived results are integrated using GIS techniques ensuring interoperability of data when combining, processing and visualizing obtained

  19. Regional Frequency and Uncertainty Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y.; Li, H. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Increased frequency of extreme precipitations, especially those with multiday durations, are responsible for recent urban floods and associated significant losses of lives and infrastructures in Bangladesh. Reliable and routinely updated estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such extreme precipitation events are thus important for developing up-to-date hydraulic structures and stormwater drainage system that can effectively minimize future risk from similar events. In this study, we have updated the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for Bangladesh using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2010 and quantified associated uncertainties. Regional frequency analysis based on L-moments is applied on 1-day, 2-day and 5-day annual maximum precipitation series due to its advantages over at-site estimation. The regional frequency approach pools the information from climatologically similar sites to make reliable estimates of quantiles given that the pooling group is homogeneous and of reasonable size. We have used Region of influence (ROI) approach along with homogeneity measure based on L-moments to identify the homogenous pooling groups for each site. Five 3-parameter distributions (i.e., Generalized Logistic, Generalized Extreme value, Generalized Normal, Pearson Type Three, and Generalized Pareto) are used for a thorough selection of appropriate models that fit the sample data. Uncertainties related to the selection of the distributions and historical data are quantified using the Bayesian Model Averaging and Balanced Bootstrap approaches respectively. The results from this study can be used to update the current design and management of hydraulic structures as well as in exploring spatio-temporal variations of extreme precipitation and associated risk.

  20. The Alpine snow-albedo feedback in regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Kevin J.-P. M.; Kotlarski, Sven; Scherrer, Simon C.; Schär, Christoph

    2017-02-01

    The effect of the snow-albedo feedback (SAF) on 2m temperatures and their future changes in the European Alps is investigated in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) with a focus on the spring season. A total of 14 re-analysis-driven RCM experiments covering the period 1961-2000 and 10 GCM-driven transient climate change projections for 1950-2099 are analysed. A positive springtime SAF is found in all RCMs, but the range of the diagnosed SAF is large. Results are compared against an observation-based SAF estimate. For some RCMs, values very close to this estimate are found; other models show a considerable overestimation of the SAF. Net shortwave radiation has the largest influence of all components of the energy balance on the diagnosed SAF and can partly explain its spatial variability. Model deficiencies in reproducing 2m temperatures above snow and ice and associated cold temperature biases at high elevations seem to contribute to a SAF overestimation in several RCMs. The diagnosed SAF in the observational period strongly influences the estimated SAF contribution to twenty first century temperature changes in the European Alps. This contribution is subject to a clear elevation dependency that is governed by the elevation-dependent change in the number of snow days. Elevations of maximum SAF contribution range from 1500 to 2000 m in spring and are found above 2000 m in summer. Here, a SAF contribution to the total simulated temperature change between 0 and 0.5 °C until 2099 (multi-model mean in spring: 0.26 °C) or 0 and 14 % (multi-model mean in spring: 8 %) is obtained for models showing a realistic SAF. These numbers represent a well-funded but only approximate estimate of the SAF contribution to future warming, and a remaining contribution of model-specific SAF misrepresentations cannot be ruled out.

  1. Operations and Modeling Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebeling, Charles

    2005-01-01

    The Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Tool (RMAT) provides NASA the capability to estimate reliability and maintainability (R&M) parameters and operational support requirements for proposed space vehicles based upon relationships established from both aircraft and Shuttle R&M data. RMAT has matured both in its underlying database and in its level of sophistication in extrapolating this historical data to satisfy proposed mission requirements, maintenance concepts and policies, and type of vehicle (i.e. ranging from aircraft like to shuttle like). However, a companion analyses tool, the Logistics Cost Model (LCM) has not reached the same level of maturity as RMAT due, in large part, to nonexistent or outdated cost estimating relationships and underlying cost databases, and it's almost exclusive dependence on Shuttle operations and logistics cost input parameters. As a result, the full capability of the RMAT/LCM suite of analysis tools to take a conceptual vehicle and derive its operations and support requirements along with the resulting operating and support costs has not been realized.

  2. Delineation and analysis of chromosomal regions specifying Yersinia pestis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derbise, Anne; Chenal-Francisque, Viviane; Huon, Christèle; Fayolle, Corinne; Demeure, Christian E; Chane-Woon-Ming, Béatrice; Médigue, Claudine; Hinnebusch, B Joseph; Carniel, Elisabeth

    2010-09-01

    Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, has recently diverged from the less virulent enteropathogen Yersinia pseudotuberculosis. Its emergence has been characterized by massive genetic loss and inactivation and limited gene acquisition. The acquired genes include two plasmids, a filamentous phage, and a few chromosomal loci. The aim of this study was to characterize the chromosomal regions acquired by Y. pestis. Following in silico comparative analysis and PCR screening of 98 strains of Y. pseudotuberculosis and Y. pestis, we found that eight chromosomal loci (six regions [R1pe to R6pe] and two coding sequences [CDS1pe and CDS2pe]) specified Y. pestis. Signatures of integration by site specific or homologous recombination were identified for most of them. These acquisitions and the loss of ancestral DNA sequences were concentrated in a chromosomal region opposite to the origin of replication. The specific regions were acquired very early during Y. pestis evolution and were retained during its microevolution, suggesting that they might bring some selective advantages. Only one region (R3pe), predicted to carry a lambdoid prophage, is most likely no longer functional because of mutations. With the exception of R1pe and R2pe, which have the potential to encode a restriction/modification and a sugar transport system, respectively, no functions could be predicted for the other Y. pestis-specific loci. To determine the role of the eight chromosomal loci in the physiology and pathogenicity of the plague bacillus, each of them was individually deleted from the bacterial chromosome. None of the deletants exhibited defects during growth in vitro. Using the Xenopsylla cheopis flea model, all deletants retained the capacity to produce a stable and persistent infection and to block fleas. Similarly, none of the deletants caused any acute flea toxicity. In the mouse model of infection, all deletants were fully virulent upon subcutaneous or aerosol infections. Therefore

  3. Analysis of the spatial and temporal variation of seasonal snow accumulation in alpine catchments using airborne laser scanning : basic research for the adaptation of spatially distributed hydrological models to mountain regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helfricht, K.

    2014-01-01

    Information about the spatial distribution of snow accumulation is a prerequisitefor adaptating hydro-meteorological models to achieve realistic simulations of therunoff from mountain catchments. Therefore, the spatial snow depthdistribution in complex topography of ice-free terrain and glaciers was investigatedusing airborne laser scanning (ALS) data. This thesis presents for the first time an analysis of the persistence and the variability of the snow patterns at the end of five accumulation seasons in a comparatively large catchment. ALS derived seasonal surface elevation changes on glaciers were compared to the actual snow depths calculated from ground penetrating radar (GPR) measurements. Areas of increased deviations. In the investigated region, the ALS-derived snow depths on most of the glacier surface do not deviate markedly from actual snow depths. 75% of a the total area showed low inter-annual variability of standardized snow depths at the end of the five accumulation seasons. The high inter-annual variability of snow depths could be attributed to changes in the ice cover within the investigated 10-yearperiod for much of the remaining area. Avalanches and snow sloughs continuously contribute to the accumulation on glaciers, but their share of the total snow covervolume is small. The assimilation of SWE maps calculated from ALS data in the adaptation of snow-hydrological models to mountain catchments improved the results not only for the but also for the simulated snow cover distribution and for the mass balance of the glaciers. The results demonstrate that ALS data are a beneficial source for extensive analysis of snow patterns and for modeling the runoff from high Alpine catchments.(author) [de

  4. Final report : Occupational gap analysis, volume 2 Wood Buffalo region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-06-01

    The general economy of the Wood Buffalo region of Alberta has improved in recent years due to the expansion of the oil sand industry. Many of the oil sands projects are situated in the southern part of the region and are serviced out of Lac LaBiche. This paper examines the implications of this economic growth for the regional supply and demand of workers in key occupational categories. In particular, it projects employment opportunities that are directly attributed to the regional economic expansion, and assesses whether there will be an adequate supply of workers to meet the demand for new and replacement employees. The report includes: an overview of the regional economy; a population forecast for the region and the demand for workers in selected occupations; an analysis of whether or not the new labour force entrants will choose the selected occupations; and, a supply and demand analysis. 7 tabs., 2 figs., 5 appendices

  5. A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

    2017-04-01

    As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled

  6. Modeling Aggregate Hourly Energy Consumption in a Regional Building Stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Kipping

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Sound estimates of future heat and electricity demand with high temporal and spatial resolution are needed for energy system planning, grid design, and evaluating demand-side management options and polices on regional and national levels. In this study, smart meter data on electricity consumption in buildings are combined with cross-sectional building information to model hourly electricity consumption within the household and service sectors on a regional basis in Norway. The same modeling approach is applied to model aggregate hourly district heat consumption in three different consumer groups located in Oslo. A comparison of modeled and metered hourly energy consumption shows that hourly variations and aggregate consumption per county and year are reproduced well by the models. However, for some smaller regions, modeled annual electricity consumption is over- or underestimated by more than 20%. Our results indicate that the presented method is useful for modeling the current and future hourly energy consumption of a regional building stock, but that larger and more detailed training datasets are required to improve the models, and more detailed building stock statistics on regional level are needed to generate useful estimates on aggregate regional energy consumption.

  7. Glistening-region model for multipath studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groves, Gordon W.; Chow, Winston C.

    1998-07-01

    The goal is to achieve a model of radar sea reflection with improved fidelity that is amenable to practical implementation. The geometry of reflection from a wavy surface is formulated. The sea surface is divided into two components: the smooth `chop' consisting of the longer wavelengths, and the `roughness' of the short wavelengths. Ordinary geometric reflection from the chop surface is broadened by the roughness. This same representation serves both for forward scatter and backscatter (sea clutter). The `Road-to-Happiness' approximation, in which the mean sea surface is assumed cylindrical, simplifies the reflection geometry for low-elevation targets. The effect of surface roughness is assumed to make the sea reflection coefficient depending on the `Deviation Angle' between the specular and the scattering directions. The `specular' direction is that into which energy would be reflected by a perfectly smooth facet. Assuming that the ocean waves are linear and random allows use of Gaussian statistics, greatly simplifying the formulation by allowing representation of the sea chop by three parameters. An approximation of `low waves' and retention of the sea-chop slope components only through second order provides further simplification. The simplifying assumptions make it possible to take the predicted 2D ocean wave spectrum into account in the calculation of sea-surface radar reflectivity, to provide algorithms for support of an operational system for dealing with target tracking in the presence of multipath. The product will be of use in simulated studies to evaluate different trade-offs in alternative tracking schemes, and will form the basis of a tactical system for ship defense against low flyers.

  8. Euler deconvolution and spectral analysis of regional aeromagnetic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Existing regional aeromagnetic data from the south-central Zimbabwe craton has been analysed using 3D Euler deconvolution and spectral analysis to obtain quantitative information on the geological units and structures for depth constraints on the geotectonic interpretation of the region. The Euler solution maps confirm ...

  9. Flow modelling of a newtonian fluid by two regions- the region of pure fluid and porous region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sampaio, R.; Gama, R.M.S. da

    1983-01-01

    A model of flow with two regions is presented using mixture theory. One region contains only pure fluid and the other a mixture of fluid and porous rigid solid. Compatibility conditons on the pure fluid-mixture interface are carefully discussed. The theory is used to solve a problem of a flow induced by pressure gradient and helicoidal motion of an impermeable cylinder on two rings one of pure fluid and another of mixture. (Author) [pt

  10. Innovation, Decentralization and Planning in a Multi-Region Model of Schumpeterian Economic Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

    2014-01-01

    We study innovation and the resulting Schumpeterian economic growth that this innovation gives rise to in a model with N heterogeneous regions. For each region i where i = 1,…,N, our analysis leads to six findings. First, we define the balanced growth path (BGP) allocations and the equilibrium of

  11. Game theoretic analysis for carbon emission permits trading among multiple world regions with an optimizing global energy model; Saitekikagata sekai energy model ni motozuku tachiikikan CO2 haishutsu kyokasho torihiki no game ronteki bunseki

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akimoto, K.; Matsunaga, A.; Fujii, Y. [Yokohama National University, Yokohama (Japan); Yamaji, K. [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)

    1998-10-01

    Carbon emissions which would cause global warming were agreed to be constrained at COP3 in Kyoto. In addition, carton emission permits trading was also approved to be introduced. The emission permits trading is expected to achieve efficient carbon emission reduction, equalizing the marginal costs of the emission reduction for the participating countries. In other words, the permits trading allows participants to reduce emissions where it is least expensive to do so. However, the inadequate introduction of the trading systems may impose unfairly greater burden on some countries, and therefore careful evaluation of the system would be indispensable for its implementation. In this paper, we attempt to analyze the emission permits trading. using the theory of cooperative games with a global energy model of optimization type. We assumed that seven world regions as players participate the permits trading system under the condition of the emission reduction target presented at COP3 and so on, and show the nucleolus of the grand coalition games, and the computational results of primary energy supplies and CO2 shadow prices. The insights of this research indicate that in order to stabilize the grand coalition, a noticeable amount of additional transfer of money would be needed besides the payments associated with the emission permits trading. 10 refs., 7 figs., 5 tabs.

  12. Appendix F : finite element analysis of end region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    FE (finite element) modeling was conducted to 1) provide a better understanding of the : elastic behavior of the end region prior to cracking and 2) to evaluate the effects of bearing pad : stiffness and width on end region elastic stresses. The FEA ...

  13. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  14. Multimedia Modeling System Response to Regional Land Management Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooter, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    A multi-media system of nitrogen and co-pollutant models describing critical physical and chemical processes that cascade synergistically and competitively through the environment, the economy and society has been developed at the USEPA Office of Research and Development. It is populated with linked or fully coupled models that address nutrient research questions such as, "How might future policy, climate or land cover change in the Mississippi River Basin affect Nitrogen and Phosphorous loadings to the Gulf of Mexico" or, "What are the management implications of regional-scale land management changes for the sustainability of air, land and water quality?" This second question requires explicit consideration of economic (e.g. sector prices) and societal (e.g. land management) factors. Metrics that illustrate biosphere-atmosphere interactions such as atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations, atmospheric N loading to surface water, soil organic N and N percolation to groundwater are calculated. An example application has been completed that is driven by a coupled agricultural and energy sector model scenario. The economic scenario assumes that by 2022 there is: 1) no detectable change in weather patterns relative to 2002; 2) a concentration of stover processing facilities in the Upper Midwest; 3) increasing offshore Pacific and Atlantic marine transportation; and 4) increasing corn, soybean and wheat production that meets future demand for food, feed and energy feedstocks. This production goal is reached without adding or removing agricultural land area whose extent is defined by the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 2002v2011 classes 81 and 82. This goal does require, however, crop shifts and agricultural management changes. The multi-media system response over our U.S. 12km rectangular grid resolution analysis suggests that there are regions of potential environmental and health costs, as well as large areas that could experience unanticipated environmental and health

  15. Effective single scattering albedo estimation using regional climate model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tesfaye, M

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, by modifying the optical parameterization of Regional Climate model (RegCM), the authors have computed and compared the Effective Single-Scattering Albedo (ESSA) which is a representative of VIS spectral region. The arid, semi...

  16. Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution

    KAUST Repository

    Kalenderski, Stoitchko; Steyn, Douw G.

    2011-01-01

    formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate

  17. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Samoa

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at...

  18. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the island of Guam at...

  19. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 3.5-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian island of Oahu at...

  20. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: CNMI

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern...

  1. Process analysis and sensitivity study of regional ozone formation over the Pearl River Delta, China, during the PRIDE-PRD2004 campaign using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Wang

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ modeling system is used to simulate the ozone (O3 episodes during the Program of Regional Integrated Experiments of Air Quality over the Pearl River Delta, China, in October 2004 (PRIDE-PRD2004. The simulation suggests that O3 pollution is a regional phenomenon in the Pearl River Delta (PRD. Elevated O3 levels often occurred in the southwestern inland PRD, Pearl River estuary (PRE, and southern coastal areas during the 1-month field campaign. Three evolution patterns of simulated surface O3 are summarized based on different near-ground flow conditions. More than 75% of days featured interactions between weak synoptic forcing and local sea-land circulation. Integrated process rate (IPR analysis shows that photochemical production is a dominant contributor to O3 enhancement from 09:00 to 15:00 local standard time in the atmospheric boundary layer over most areas with elevated O3 occurrence in the mid-afternoon. The simulated ozone production efficiency is 2–8 O3 molecules per NOx molecule oxidized in areas with high O3 chemical production. Precursors of O3 originating from different source regions in the central PRD are mixed during the course of transport to downwind rural areas during nighttime and early morning, where they then contribute to the daytime O3 photochemical production. The sea-land circulation plays an important role on the regional O3 formation and distribution over PRD. Sensitivity studies suggest that O3 formation is volatile-organic-compound-limited in the central inland PRD, PRE, and surrounding coastal areas with less chemical aging (NOx/NOy>0.6, but is NOx-limited in the rural southwestern PRD with aged air (NOx/NOy<0.3.

  2. Regional water resources management in the Andean region with numerical models and satellite remote sensing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menenti, M.; Mulders, C.W.B.

    1999-01-01

    This report describes the development and adaptation of distributed numerical simulation models of hydrological processes in complex watersheds typical of the Andean region. These distributed models take advantage of the synoptic capabilities of sensors on-board satellites and GIS procedures have

  3. Innovation, Decentralization, and Planning in a Multi-Region Model of Schumpeterian Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Batabyal, Amit; Nijkamp, Peter

    2014-01-01

    We study innovation and the resulting Schumpeterian economic growth that this innovation gives rise to in a model with N heterogeneous regions. For each region i where i=1,...,N, our analysis leads to five findings. First, we define the balanced growth path (BGP) allocations and the equilibrium of interest. Second, we stipulate the form of the innovation possibilities frontier that is consistent with balanced economic growth. Third, we derive the growth rate of the ith region in the decentral...

  4. Shape Analysis of HII Regions - I. Statistical Clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell-White, Justyn; Froebrich, Dirk; Kume, Alfred

    2018-04-01

    We present here our shape analysis method for a sample of 76 Galactic HII regions from MAGPIS 1.4 GHz data. The main goal is to determine whether physical properties and initial conditions of massive star cluster formation is linked to the shape of the regions. We outline a systematic procedure for extracting region shapes and perform hierarchical clustering on the shape data. We identified six groups that categorise HII regions by common morphologies. We confirmed the validity of these groupings by bootstrap re-sampling and the ordinance technique multidimensional scaling. We then investigated associations between physical parameters and the assigned groups. Location is mostly independent of group, with a small preference for regions of similar longitudes to share common morphologies. The shapes are homogeneously distributed across Galactocentric distance and latitude. One group contains regions that are all younger than 0.5 Myr and ionised by low- to intermediate-mass sources. Those in another group are all driven by intermediate- to high-mass sources. One group was distinctly separated from the other five and contained regions at the surface brightness detection limit for the survey. We find that our hierarchical procedure is most sensitive to the spatial sampling resolution used, which is determined for each region from its distance. We discuss how these errors can be further quantified and reduced in future work by utilising synthetic observations from numerical simulations of HII regions. We also outline how this shape analysis has further applications to other diffuse astronomical objects.

  5. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  6. Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution

    KAUST Repository

    Kalenderski, Stoitchko

    2011-03-17

    We develop a physically motivated statistical model for regional ozone air pollution by separating the ground-level pollutant concentration field into three components, namely: transport, local production and large-scale mean trend mostly dominated by emission rates. The model is novel in the field of environmental spatial statistics in that it is a combined deterministic-statistical model, which gives a new perspective to the modelling of air pollution. The model is presented in a Bayesian hierarchical formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate that the model vastly outperforms existing, simpler modelling approaches. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering different aspects of an air pollution problem as well as taking into account the physical bases that govern the processes of interest. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..

  7. Balancing regional industrial development: analysis on regional disparity of China's industrial emissions and policy implications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liang, Hanwei; Dong, Liang; Luo, Xiao

    2016-01-01

    Efficient industrial emissions mitigation strategy is critical for China's national action on climate change and sustainable development, considering its rapid industrialization. Regional disparity brings difficulties and uncertainties to policy implementation in China. Therefore, an investigation...... development, and highlight not only disparity, but also inequity exists. It is concluded that, there is a larger unequal distribution of GDP per unit of air pollutants and CO2 emission between eastern and western regions, reveals that less developed western and central regions suffer from the emission leakage...... on the regional features of industrial emissions is critical to better decision makings. While to date, related studies have been rather few. This paper applies a spatial analysis on regional features of China's industrial emissions (SO2, NOx and PM2.5 and CO2 emission) in 31 provinces. Spatial autocorrelation...

  8. Regional and parametric sensitivity analysis of Sobol' indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei, Pengfei; Lu, Zhenzhou; Song, Jingwen

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays, utilizing the Monte Carlo estimators for variance-based sensitivity analysis has gained sufficient popularity in many research fields. These estimators are usually based on n+2 sample matrices well designed for computing both the main and total effect indices, where n is the input dimension. The aim of this paper is to use such n+2 sample matrices to investigate how the main and total effect indices change when the uncertainty of the model inputs are reduced. For this purpose, the regional main and total effect functions are defined for measuring the changes on the main and total effect indices when the distribution range of one input is reduced, and the parametric main and total effect functions are introduced to quantify the residual main and total effect indices due to the reduced variance of one input. Monte Carlo estimators are derived for all the developed sensitivity concepts based on the n+2 samples matrices originally used for computing the main and total effect indices, thus no extra computational cost is introduced. The Ishigami function, a nonlinear model and a planar ten-bar structure are utilized for illustrating the developed sensitivity concepts, and for demonstrating the efficiency and accuracy of the derived Monte Carlo estimators. - Highlights: • The regional main and total effect functions are developed. • The parametric main and total effect functions are introduced. • The proposed sensitivity functions are all generalizations of Sobol' indices. • The Monte Carlo estimators are derived for the four sensitivity functions. • The computational cost of the estimators is the same as that of Sobol' indices

  9. The Analysis of Regional Disparities in Romania with Gini/Struck Coefficients of Concentration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANIELA ANTONESCU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A key objective of regional development policy is to reduce disparities between regions and to ensure a relatively balanced level of development. To achieve this goal studies and social and economic analysis based on certain techniques and methods of evaluation are necessary. In scientific literature, there are plenty of models that can be applied to assess regional disparities. One of the methods commonly used in practice is related to the calculation and analysis of the degree of concentration/diversification of activities within a region. The increase or decrease in the degree of concentration of certain activities or areas of activity in a region provides information on: - the level of overall economic development; - economic development and growth rate; - the specific features of the region, the potential, local traditions, etc. The expert analysis indicate that, in a high level of overall development or a sustained economic growth rate, there are favorable conditions for economic activities to locate in any region, so they are relatively uniformly distributed throughout the country.Knowing the degree of concentration and also the influence factors are useful in making decisions and setting regional policy measures.This article proposes a synthetic analysis of the development level of regions in Romania with the concentration/diversification model (Gini/Struck coefficients, based on the existing key statistical indicators.

  10. MODEL OF REGIONAL KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER: MAIN ACTORS, FRAMEWORK AND THEORY.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alla LEVITSKAIA

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses potential mechanism of regional knowledge transfer in region with poorly developed innovation infrastructure (the Autonomous Territorial Unit Gagauzia, Republic of Moldova through interactions between regional major players of the Regional Innovation System - the educational and research institutions, small and medium enterprises (SMEs and local authorities. Solution of this problem can be found in modern studies of territories innovation development through the clustering processes. Through the empirical study - innovation potential analysis of local SMEs - we proposed advantage mechanism which focused on the one type of knowledge cluster – Innovation and Educational Cluster. The symbiosis of entrepreneurs, government agencies, educational institutions and business service providers with the regional core - University, allows to increasing exchange flows of innovative knowledge between all members of the cluster and distributing them to the entire region and beyond. The results and proposals of this study formed the basis of the “Program of increasing the innovation potential of Gagauz SMEs”.

  11. Analysis and design of hybrid electric regional turboprop aircraft

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voskuijl, M.; van Bogaert, J.; Gangoli Rao, A.

    2017-01-01

    The potential environmental benefits of hybrid electric regional turboprop aircraft in terms of fuel consumption are investigated. Lithium–air batteries are used as energy source in combination with conventional fuel. A validated design and analysis framework is extended with sizing and analysis

  12. The Significance of Regional Analysis in Applied Geography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommers, Lawrence M.

    Regional analysis is central to applied geographic research, contributing to better planning and policy development for a variety of societal problems facing the United States. The development of energy policy serves as an illustration of the capabilities of this type of analysis. The United States has had little success in formulating a national…

  13. Snow model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    This study developed a new snow model and a database which warehouses geometric, weather and traffic : data on New Jersey highways. The complexity of the model development lies in considering variable road : width, different spreading/plowing pattern...

  14. SCOWLP classification: Structural comparison and analysis of protein binding regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Gerd

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Detailed information about protein interactions is critical for our understanding of the principles governing protein recognition mechanisms. The structures of many proteins have been experimentally determined in complex with different ligands bound either in the same or different binding regions. Thus, the structural interactome requires the development of tools to classify protein binding regions. A proper classification may provide a general view of the regions that a protein uses to bind others and also facilitate a detailed comparative analysis of the interacting information for specific protein binding regions at atomic level. Such classification might be of potential use for deciphering protein interaction networks, understanding protein function, rational engineering and design. Description Protein binding regions (PBRs might be ideally described as well-defined separated regions that share no interacting residues one another. However, PBRs are often irregular, discontinuous and can share a wide range of interacting residues among them. The criteria to define an individual binding region can be often arbitrary and may differ from other binding regions within a protein family. Therefore, the rational behind protein interface classification should aim to fulfil the requirements of the analysis to be performed. We extract detailed interaction information of protein domains, peptides and interfacial solvent from the SCOWLP database and we classify the PBRs of each domain family. For this purpose, we define a similarity index based on the overlapping of interacting residues mapped in pair-wise structural alignments. We perform our classification with agglomerative hierarchical clustering using the complete-linkage method. Our classification is calculated at different similarity cut-offs to allow flexibility in the analysis of PBRs, feature especially interesting for those protein families with conflictive binding regions

  15. Regional Scale/Regional Climate Model Development and Its Applications at Goddard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W.; Qian, J.; Jia, Y.; Wetzel, P.; Chou, M.-D.; Wang, Y.; Lynn, B.

    2000-01-01

    A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model (Penn State/NCAR MM5) with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America region.

  16. MODEL EVALUATION OF THE SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC CLUSTERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Чингис Дашидалаевич Дашицыренов

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article describes a model of evaluation of effectiveness of spatial development of a region. Main approaches and criteria to assess effectiveness of socio-economic development of a region based on use of regional economic cluster are identified.The author believes that clusterization allows to eliminate or localize mentioned above restrictions which are characteristic of specific activity of entities. Effect in this case can be measured by increase in productivity obtained from cluster’s resources use  in regard to specific form of enterprises’ existence.The article also focused on definition of idea of synergic effect and the model of effectiveness of clusters. Cluster integration’s essence is considered – it is pointed out that a new structure is formed, which has emergent characteristics.Thus, main approach to spatial socio-economic development of a region proposed by the author is diversification of organizational and economic forms into regional economic clusters.Proposed by the author model allows to assess effectiveness of clusterization for spatial socio-economic development of any region. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-10-14

  17. [A process of aquatic ecological function regionalization: The dual tree framework and conceptual model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Shu Hai; Wu, Bo

    2017-12-01

    Aquatic ecological regionalization and aquatic ecological function regionalization are the basis of water environmental management of a river basin and rational utilization of an aquatic ecosystem, and have been studied in China for more than ten years. Regarding the common problems in this field, the relationship between aquatic ecological regionalization and aquatic ecological function regionalization was discussed in this study by systematic analysis of the aquatic ecological zoning and the types of aquatic ecological function. Based on the dual tree structure, we put forward the RFCH process and the diamond conceptual model. Taking Liaohe River basin as an example and referring to the results of existing regionalization studies, we classified the aquatic ecological function regions based on three-class aquatic ecological regionalization. This study provided a process framework for aquatic ecological function regionalization of a river basin.

  18. Simultaneous-equations Analysis in Regional Science and Economic Geography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mitze, Timo; Stephan, Andreas

    This paper provides an overview over simultaneous equation models (SEM) in the context of analyses based on regional data. We describe various modelling approaches and highlight close link of SEMs to theory and also comment on the advantages and disadvantages of SEMs.We present selected empirical...

  19. A new methodology based on the two-region model and microscopic noise analysis techniques for absolute measurements of betaeff, Λ and betaeff/Λ of the IPEN-MB-01 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuramoto, Renato Yoichi Ribeiro

    2007-01-01

    A new method for absolute measurement of the effective delayed neutron fraction, beta eff based on microscopic noise experiments and the Two-Region Model was developed at the IPEN/MB-01 Research Reactor facility. In contrast with other techniques like the Modified Bennett Method, Nelson-Number Method and 252 Cf-Source Method, the main advantage of this new methodology is to obtain the effective delayed neutron parameters in a purely experimental way, eliminating all parameters that are difficult to measure or calculate. In this way, Rossi-a and Feynman-a experiments for validation of this method were performed at the IPEN/MB-01 facility, and adopting the present approach, beta eff was measured with a 0.67% uncertainty. In addition, the prompt neutron generation time, A, and other parameters were also obtained in an absolute experimental way. In general, the final results agree well with values from frequency analysis experiments. The theory-experiment comparison reveals that JENDL-3.3 shows deviation for beta eff lower than 1% which meets the desired accuracy for the theoretical determination of this parameter. This work supports the reduction of the 235 U thermal yield as proposed by Okajima and Sakurai. (author)

  20. Parameters of oscillation generation regions in open star cluster models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danilov, V. M.; Putkov, S. I.

    2017-07-01

    We determine the masses and radii of central regions of open star cluster (OCL) models with small or zero entropy production and estimate the masses of oscillation generation regions in clustermodels based on the data of the phase-space coordinates of stars. The radii of such regions are close to the core radii of the OCL models. We develop a new method for estimating the total OCL masses based on the cluster core mass, the cluster and cluster core radii, and radial distribution of stars. This method yields estimates of dynamical masses of Pleiades, Praesepe, and M67, which agree well with the estimates of the total masses of the corresponding clusters based on proper motions and spectroscopic data for cluster stars.We construct the spectra and dispersion curves of the oscillations of the field of azimuthal velocities v φ in OCL models. Weak, low-amplitude unstable oscillations of v φ develop in cluster models near the cluster core boundary, and weak damped oscillations of v φ often develop at frequencies close to the frequencies of more powerful oscillations, which may reduce the non-stationarity degree in OCL models. We determine the number and parameters of such oscillations near the cores boundaries of cluster models. Such oscillations points to the possible role that gradient instability near the core of cluster models plays in the decrease of the mass of the oscillation generation regions and production of entropy in the cores of OCL models with massive extended cores.

  1. Attainable region analysis for continuous production of second generation bioethanol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Felipe; Conejeros, Raúl; Aroca, Germán

    2013-11-29

    Despite its semi-commercial status, ethanol production from lignocellulosics presents many complexities not yet fully solved. Since the pretreatment stage has been recognized as a complex and yield-determining step, it has been extensively studied. However, economic success of the production process also requires optimization of the biochemical conversion stage. This work addresses the search of bioreactor configurations with improved residence times for continuous enzymatic saccharification and fermentation operations. Instead of analyzing each possible configuration through simulation, we apply graphical methods to optimize the residence time of reactor networks composed of steady-state reactors. Although this can be easily made for processes described by a single kinetic expression, reactions under analysis do not exhibit this feature. Hence, the attainable region method, able to handle multiple species and its reactions, was applied for continuous reactors. Additionally, the effects of the sugars contained in the pretreatment liquor over the enzymatic hydrolysis and simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) were assessed. We obtained candidate attainable regions for separate enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation (SHF) and SSF operations, both fed with pretreated corn stover. Results show that, despite the complexity of the reaction networks and underlying kinetics, the reactor networks that minimize the residence time can be constructed by using plug flow reactors and continuous stirred tank reactors. Regarding the effect of soluble solids in the feed stream to the reactor network, for SHF higher glucose concentration and yield are achieved for enzymatic hydrolysis with washed solids. Similarly, for SSF, higher yields and bioethanol titers are obtained using this substrate. In this work, we demonstrated the capabilities of the attainable region analysis as a tool to assess the optimal reactor network with minimum residence time applied to the SHF and

  2. At site and regional analysis of maximum annual and seasonal discharges and precipitation depths in the upper Hron region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohnova, S.; Hlavcova, K.

    2004-01-01

    In this presentation authors deal with the regional analysis of maximum annual and seasonal discharges and precipitation depths in the upper Hron region (Slovak Republic). This work has two objectives: (1) At site and regional analysis of annual and seasonal maximum design discharges in the upper Hron region; (2) Analysis of annual and seasonal maximum design precipitations in the connection of extreme runoff condition in the upper Hron region

  3. Criticality Analysis of SFP Region I under Dry Air Condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Ki Yong; Kim, Min Chul

    2016-01-01

    This paper is to provide a result of the criticality evaluation under the condition that new fuel assemblies for initial fuel loading are storing in Region 1 of SFP in the dry air. The objective of this analysis is to ensure the effective neutron multiplication factor(k_e_f_f) of SFP is less than 0.95 under that condition. This analysis ensured the effective neutron multiplication factor(k_e_f_f) of Region 1 of SFP is less than 0.95 under the condition in the air. The keff in Region I of SFP under the condition of the dry air is 0.5865. The increased k_c_a_l_c of the Region 1 after the mislocated fuel assembly accident is 0.0444 at the pool flooded with un-borated water

  4. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  5. A European regional analysis of selected food consumption statements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Askegaard, Søren

    1993-01-01

    This paper examines different European regions of food culture. It does so by analyzing statements about food attitudes and food consumption from a general, commercial life style survey. The data were collected in 1989 through 20.000 interviews in European countries broken down into 80 regions. T...... for more advanced statistical analysis, this paper should definitely be regarded as a work progress paper, incomplete as it is....

  6. Nudging and predictability in regional climate modelling: investigation in a nested quasi-geostrophic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omrani, Hiba; Drobinski, Philippe; Dubos, Thomas

    2010-05-01

    In this work, we consider the effect of indiscriminate and spectral nudging on the large and small scales of an idealized model simulation. The model is a two layer quasi-geostrophic model on the beta-plane driven at its boundaries by the « global » version with periodic boundary condition. This setup mimics the configuration used for regional climate modelling. The effect of large-scale nudging is studied by using the "perfect model" approach. Two sets of experiments are performed: (1) the effect of nudging is investigated with a « global » high resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model driven by a low resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model. (2) similar simulations are conducted with the two layer quasi-geostrophic Limited Area Model (LAM) where the size of the LAM domain comes into play in addition to the first set of simulations. The study shows that the indiscriminate nudging time that minimizes the error at both the large and small scales is reached for a nudging time close to the predictability time, for spectral nudging, the optimum nudging time should tend to zero since the best large scale dynamics is supposed to be given by the driving large-scale fields are generally given at much lower frequency than the model time step(e,g, 6-hourly analysis) with a basic interpolation between the fields, the optimum nudging time differs from zero, however remaining smaller than the predictability time.

  7. Approach to analysis of inter-regional similarity of investment activity support measures in legislation of regions (on the example of Krasnoyarsk region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina F. Lapo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The most part of stimulation methods in Russia are concentrated in legal documents of the regions of the Russian Federation. They directed on intensification of investment activity in regions. How similar are these investment stimulation conceptions? There is no mention in the literature of the methodical questions of quantitative analysis and inter-regional comparisons. In addition, there are no results of statistical research of inter-regional correlations of stimulation methods and analysis of dynamics of this process. There are no special measuring instruments. The presented work is aimed at completion of these blanks. The approach for the spatial correlation analysis of legislative norms is offered in research. Classification of investments’ stimulation methods is developed. The way of preparing and coding data for research is offered. The approach and system of coefficients for the analysis of inter-regional interrelations of legislative systems of investments’ stimulation is offered. A proximity coefficient of regional legislation, a factor of structure similarity and a dynamic coincidence index are proposed. The space-time base of investment stimulation methods on Russian Federation regions for 12 years is collected and statistically processed for research. There are only 758 documents. A source of texts is a site of the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation.Research of documents has allowed revealing a number of laws in formation of regional investment stimulation systems. The regions that are the most similar in terms of structure of stimulation methods are identified. We have found the group of regions for which it is observed the increase in similarity of the legislation and the group with the reduction of similarity. Therefore, it is obvious that the general trend to reduction of similarity in the legislation takes place between Krasnoyarsk territory and the other regions of the Russian Federation. Calculations have

  8. Markov Chain Models for Stochastic Behavior in Resonance Overlap Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Morgan; Quillen, Alice

    2018-01-01

    We aim to predict lifetimes of particles in chaotic zoneswhere resonances overlap. A continuous-time Markov chain model isconstructed using mean motion resonance libration timescales toestimate transition times between resonances. The model is applied todiffusion in the co-rotation region of a planet. For particles begunat low eccentricity, the model is effective for early diffusion, butnot at later time when particles experience close encounters to the planet.

  9. CENOLOGIСAL MODEL OF THE REGION RESISTANCE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.N. Kuzminov

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses a new methodological approach the study and management of a regional market environment based on cenological patterns. As the target is determined by the need to ensure structural balance and sustainability. Research tools and management adopted by the species analysis, which provided a measure of public exposure in order to create a sustainable competitive business environment of the region

  10. Using cluster analysis to organize and explore regional GPS velocities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Robert W.; Thatcher, Wayne; Savage, James C.

    2012-01-01

    Cluster analysis offers a simple visual exploratory tool for the initial investigation of regional Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity observations, which are providing increasingly precise mappings of actively deforming continental lithosphere. The deformation fields from dense regional GPS networks can often be concisely described in terms of relatively coherent blocks bounded by active faults, although the choice of blocks, their number and size, can be subjective and is often guided by the distribution of known faults. To illustrate our method, we apply cluster analysis to GPS velocities from the San Francisco Bay Region, California, to search for spatially coherent patterns of deformation, including evidence of block-like behavior. The clustering process identifies four robust groupings of velocities that we identify with four crustal blocks. Although the analysis uses no prior geologic information other than the GPS velocities, the cluster/block boundaries track three major faults, both locked and creeping.

  11. CLUSTER ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION BY LEVEL OF INNOVATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Shchur

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available   SWOT-analysis of the threats and benefits of innovation development strategy of Ivano-Frankivsk region in the context of financial support was сonducted. Methodical approach to determine of public-private partnerships potential that is tool of innovative economic development financing was identified. Cluster analysis of possibilities of forming public-private partnership in a particular region was carried out. Optimal set of problem areas that require urgent solutions and financial security is defined on the basis of cluster approach. It will help to form practical recommendations for the formation of an effective financial mechanism in the regions of Ukraine. Key words: the mechanism of innovation development financial provision, innovation development, public-private partnerships, cluster analysis, innovative development strategy.

  12. Sensitivity Analysis of a Land-Use Change Model with and without Agents to Assess Land Abandonment and Long-Term Re-Forestation in a Swiss Mountain Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandle, M.; Langendijk, G.; Peter, S.; Brunner, S.H.

    2015-01-01

    Land abandonment and the subsequent re-forestation are important drivers behind the loss of ecosystem services in mountain regions. Agent-based models can help to identify global change impacts on farmland abandonment and can test policy and management options to counteract this development.

  13. REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING STUDY FOR THE CARPATHIAN REGION USING REGCM4 EXPERIMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PIECZKA I.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The newest model version of RegCM is adapted with the ultimate aim of providing climate projection for the Carpathian region with 10 km horizontal resolution. For this purpose, first, coarse resolution reanalysis data and global climate model outputs are used to drive 50 km resolution model experiments, from which the outputs are used to provide necessary boundary conditions for the fine scale model runs. Besides the historical runs (for the period 1981-2010, RCP4.5 scenario is also analyzed in this paper for the 21st century. These experiments are essential since they form the basis of national climate and adaptation strategies by providing detailed regional scale climatic projections and enabling specific impact studies for various sectors.

  14. NON-LINEAR MODELING OF THE RHIC INTERACTION REGIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    TOMAS, R.; FISCHER, W.; JAIN, A.; LUO, Y.; PILAT, F.

    2004-01-01

    For RHIC's collision lattices the dominant sources of transverse non-linearities are located in the interaction regions. The field quality is available for most of the magnets in the interaction regions from the magnetic measurements, or from extrapolations of these measurements. We discuss the implementation of these measurements in the MADX models of the Blue and the Yellow rings and their impact on beam stability

  15. Improving Shade Modelling in a Regional River Temperature Model Using Fine-Scale LIDAR Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, D. M.; Loicq, P.; Moatar, F.; Beaufort, A.; Melin, E.; Jullian, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Air temperature is often considered as a proxy of the stream temperature to model the distribution areas of aquatic species water temperature is not available at a regional scale. To simulate the water temperature at a regional scale (105 km²), a physically-based model using the equilibrium temperature concept and including upstream-downstream propagation of the thermal signal was developed and applied to the entire Loire basin (Beaufort et al., submitted). This model, called T-NET (Temperature-NETwork) is based on a hydrographical network topology. Computations are made hourly on 52,000 reaches which average 1.7 km long in the Loire drainage basin. The model gives a median Root Mean Square Error of 1.8°C at hourly time step on the basis of 128 water temperature stations (2008-2012). In that version of the model, tree shadings is modelled by a constant factor proportional to the vegetation cover on 10 meters sides the river reaches. According to sensitivity analysis, improving the shade representation would enhance T-NET accuracy, especially for the maximum daily temperatures, which are currently not very well modelized. This study evaluates the most efficient way (accuracy/computing time) to improve the shade model thanks to 1-m resolution LIDAR data available on tributary of the LoireRiver (317 km long and an area of 8280 km²). Two methods are tested and compared: the first one is a spatially explicit computation of the cast shadow for every LIDAR pixel. The second is based on averaged vegetation cover characteristics of buffers and reaches of variable size. Validation of the water temperature model is made against 4 temperature sensors well spread along the stream, as well as two airborne thermal infrared imageries acquired in summer 2014 and winter 2015 over a 80 km reach. The poster will present the optimal length- and crosswise scale to characterize the vegetation from LIDAR data.

  16. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  17. The Development Model Electronic Commerce of Regional Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Jun; Cai, Lecai; Li, Hongchan

    With the developing of the agricultural information, it is inevitable trend of the development of agricultural electronic commercial affairs. On the basis of existing study on the development application model of e-commerce, combined with the character of the agricultural information, compared with the developing model from the theory and reality, a new development model electronic commerce of regional agriculture base on the government is put up, and such key issues as problems of the security applications, payment mode, sharing mechanisms, and legal protection are analyzed, etc. The among coordination mechanism of the region is discussed on, it is significance for regulating the development of agricultural e-commerce and promoting the regional economical development.

  18. Clustering applications in financial and economic analysis of the crop production in the Russian regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gromov Vladislav Vladimirovich

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available We used the complex mathematical modeling, multivariate statistical-analysis, fuzzy sets to analyze the financial and economic state of the crop production in Russian regions. We developed a system of indicators, detecting the state agricultural sector in the region, based on the results of correlation, factor, cluster analysis and statistics of the Federal State Statistics Service. We performed clustering analyses to divide regions of Russia on selected factors into five groups. A qualitative and quantitative characteristics of each cluster was received.

  19. Investment analysis of St. Petersburg and Leningrad region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Borkova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the need for new approaches to improve the competitiveness of North-West Federal District of Russia, which based on knowledge of tendencies of innovation development. Innovative development ensures sustainable development of the region. Analysis conducted by the author has the main idea to evaluate the prospects of economic development of the region. It is almost impossible to imagine the modern world without innovations occurred, that have become familiar, and future innovations contributing to the further evolution of the economic system. Most scientists agree on that innovation has become the main driving force of economic and social development. Therefore, the main research problem is the assessment of the prospects of economic and innovative development of the North-West Federal District and its place in the Economy of Russia. Russia - the country is so sharp inter-regional economic, social and political contrasts that each potential investor with sufficient information about the investment climate can select the region with the best conditions for investment. Usually the investor to make a decision is necessary to have estimates of the degree of investment attractiveness and the level of existing risks. The division of regions on the basis of the investment attractiveness allows more reasonable to formulate the basic principles of regional policy, as well as to encourage regional governments to more vigorous action to improve the investment climate. Analysis of investment attractiveness of the Russian Federation subjects showed that the regions have different investment opportunities (potentials, and they have different risk factors. Research investment processes involved in a huge number of economists and analysts. Additional investments are required in any industry. Whether it is to attract the investor to open a new business, maintaining the city-forming enterprise, a particular region or country as a whole.

  20. Reference Evapotranspiration Variation Analysis and Its Approaches Evaluation of 13 Empirical Models in Sub-Humid and Humid Regions: A Case Study of the Huai River Basin, Eastern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Li

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Accurate and reliable estimations of reference evapotranspiration (ET0 are imperative in irrigation scheduling and water resource planning. This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal trends of the monthly ET0 calculated by the Penman–Monteith FAO-56 (PMF-56 model in the Huai River Basin (HRB, eastern China. However, the use of the PMF-56 model is limited by the insufficiency of climatic input parameters in various sites, and the alternative is to employ simple empirical models. In this study, the performances of 13 empirical models were evaluated against the PMF-56 model by using three common statistical approaches: relative root-mean-square error (RRMSE, mean absolute error (MAE, and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NS. Additionally, a linear regression model was adopted to calibrate and validate the performances of the empirical models during the 1961–2000 and 2001–2014 time periods, respectively. The results showed that the ETPMF increased initially and then decreased on a monthly timescale. On a daily timescale, the Valiantzas3 (VA3 was the best alternative model for estimating the ET0, while the Penman (PEN, WMO, Trabert (TRA, and Jensen-Haise (JH models showed poor results with large errors. Before calibration, the determination coefficients of the temperature-based, radiation-based, and combined models showed the opposite changing trends compared to the mass transfer-based models. After calibration, the performance of each empirical model in each month improved greatly except for the PEN model. If the comprehensive climatic datasets were available, the VA3 would be the recommended model because it had a simple computation procedure and was also very well correlated linearly to the PMF-56 model. Given the data availability, the temperature-based, radiation-based, Valiantzas1 (VA1 and Valiantzas2 (VA2 models were recommended during April–October in the HRB and other similar regions, and also, the mass transfer-based models were

  1. Survival analysis models and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Xian

    2012-01-01

    Survival analysis concerns sequential occurrences of events governed by probabilistic laws.  Recent decades have witnessed many applications of survival analysis in various disciplines. This book introduces both classic survival models and theories along with newly developed techniques. Readers will learn how to perform analysis of survival data by following numerous empirical illustrations in SAS. Survival Analysis: Models and Applications: Presents basic techniques before leading onto some of the most advanced topics in survival analysis.Assumes only a minimal knowledge of SAS whilst enablin

  2. ANALISIS SEKTOR KEUANGAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI REGIONAL DI WILAYAH JAWA: PENDEKATAN MODEL LEVINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Utami Baroroh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study are to analyze the influence of financial development to economic regional growth on Jawa region, using panel of province-level data on Jawa region for the period 2005-2010. The analysis method that used on this paper is panel data regression. The empirical results shown that financial asset and financial credit had a positive influence to economic regional growth on Jawa region, meanwhile third party fund had negative influence to economic regional growth on Jawa region.  The other result shown that individual effect from fixed effect model showed that DKI Jakarta, Banten and East Jawa have potential as the centre of economic growthDOI: 10.15408/etk.v11i2.1892

  3. Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salciarini, D.; Godt, J.W.; Savage, W.Z.; Conversini, P.; Baum, R.L.; Michael, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.

  4. MODELS OF TOURIST DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borma Afrodita

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Third year PhD candidate at the University of Oradea, under the guidance of Professor Mrs. Alina Bădulescu in the doctoral research project entitled: "Doctoral studies and Ph.D. candidates for competitive research on a knowledge based society", a co-financed project by the European Social Fund through the Sectoral Operational Program for Human Resources Development 2007 - 2013, Priority Axis 1. "Education and training in support for growth and development of a knowledge based society" I chose to present this subject in order to demonstrate the connection that exists between tourism and regional development. Having as research topic "Tourism and development in the Euro regional context” I felt it would be appropriate to devote a subchapter in presenting the impact of tourism in regional development. Thus I have analysed a number of specialised papers found at national and international level in order to achieve a synthesis on the approached topic. Authors such as Williams and Shaw (1991, Sharma (2004, Keskin and Cansiz (2010 were concerned with presenting the positive aspects of tourism in regional development. Condes (2004 presents on one hand the secrets regarding success in matter of tourist development, and on the other side he presents the possible risks that follow the development of tourism in a country / region (Condes 2004. Following the gathered information we found that indeed tourism plays an important role in regional development. The used research methodology consisted in using specialised literature in order to identify some models that illustrate the potential success of tourism in regional development. The space-temporal development model of tourism proposed by Opperman (1993, although it was developed at national level represents a useful tool in illustrating the potential success of tourism in regional development. Miossec's model (Sharma 2004:300 describes the structural evolution of touristic regions in

  5. CMS analysis school model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malik, S; Bloom, K; Shipsey, I; Cavanaugh, R; Klima, B; Chan, Kai-Feng; D'Hondt, J; Narain, M; Palla, F; Rolandi, G; Schörner-Sadenius, T

    2014-01-01

    To impart hands-on training in physics analysis, CMS experiment initiated the concept of CMS Data Analysis School (CMSDAS). It was born over three years ago at the LPC (LHC Physics Centre), Fermilab and is based on earlier workshops held at the LPC and CLEO Experiment. As CMS transitioned from construction to the data taking mode, the nature of earlier training also evolved to include more of analysis tools, software tutorials and physics analysis. This effort epitomized as CMSDAS has proven to be a key for the new and young physicists to jump start and contribute to the physics goals of CMS by looking for new physics with the collision data. With over 400 physicists trained in six CMSDAS around the globe, CMS is trying to engage the collaboration in its discovery potential and maximize physics output. As a bigger goal, CMS is striving to nurture and increase engagement of the myriad talents, in the development of physics, service, upgrade, education of those new to CMS and the career development of younger members. An extension of the concept to the dedicated software and hardware schools is also planned, keeping in mind the ensuing upgrade phase.

  6. CMS Analysis School Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malik, S. [Nebraska U.; Shipsey, I. [Purdue U.; Cavanaugh, R. [Illinois U., Chicago; Bloom, K. [Nebraska U.; Chan, Kai-Feng [Taiwan, Natl. Taiwan U.; D' Hondt, J. [Vrije U., Brussels; Klima, B. [Fermilab; Narain, M. [Brown U.; Palla, F. [INFN, Pisa; Rolandi, G. [CERN; Schörner-Sadenius, T. [DESY

    2014-01-01

    To impart hands-on training in physics analysis, CMS experiment initiated the concept of CMS Data Analysis School (CMSDAS). It was born over three years ago at the LPC (LHC Physics Centre), Fermilab and is based on earlier workshops held at the LPC and CLEO Experiment. As CMS transitioned from construction to the data taking mode, the nature of earlier training also evolved to include more of analysis tools, software tutorials and physics analysis. This effort epitomized as CMSDAS has proven to be a key for the new and young physicists to jump start and contribute to the physics goals of CMS by looking for new physics with the collision data. With over 400 physicists trained in six CMSDAS around the globe, CMS is trying to engage the collaboration in its discovery potential and maximize physics output. As a bigger goal, CMS is striving to nurture and increase engagement of the myriad talents, in the development of physics, service, upgrade, education of those new to CMS and the career development of younger members. An extension of the concept to the dedicated software and hardware schools is also planned, keeping in mind the ensuing upgrade phase.

  7. Regional Sediment Management (RSM) Modeling Tools: Integration of Advanced Sediment Transport Tools into HEC-RAS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    sediment transport within the USACE HEC River Analysis System ( HEC - RAS ) software package and to determine its applicability to Regional Sediment...Management (RSM) challenges. HEC - RAS SEDIMENT MODELING BACKGROUND: HEC - RAS performs (1) one- dimensional (1D) steady and unsteady hydraulic river ...Albuquerque (SPA)), and recently, the USACE RSM Program. HEC - RAS is one of several hydraulic modeling codes available for river analysis in the

  8. Evaluation of the Analysis Influence on Transport in Reanalysis Regional Water Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, M. G.; Chen, J.; Robertson, F. R.

    2011-01-01

    Regional water cycles of reanalyses do not follow theoretical assumptions applicable to pure simulated budgets. The data analysis changes the wind, temperature and moisture, perturbing the theoretical balance. Of course, the analysis is correcting the model forecast error, so that the state fields should be more aligned with observations. Recently, it has been reported that the moisture convergence over continental regions, even those with significant quantities of radiosonde profiles present, can produce long term values not consistent with theoretical bounds. Specifically, long averages over continents produce some regions of moisture divergence. This implies that the observational analysis leads to a source of water in the region. One such region is the Unite States Great Plains, which many radiosonde and lidar wind observations are assimilated. We will utilize a new ancillary data set from the MERRA reanalysis called the Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) which provides the assimilated observations on MERRA's native grid allowing more thorough consideration of their impact on regional and global climatology. Included with the GIO data are the observation minus forecast (OmF) and observation minus analysis (OmA). Using OmF and OmA, we can identify the bias of the analysis against each observing system and gain a better understanding of the observations that are controlling the regional analysis. In this study we will focus on the wind and moisture assimilation.

  9. Pyrolysis Kinetic Modelling of Wheat Straw from the Pannonian Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Pešenjanski

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The pyrolysis/devolatilization is a basic step of thermochemical processes and requires fundamental characterization. In this paper, the kinetic model of pyrolysis is specified as a one-step global reaction. This type of reaction is used to describe the thermal degradation of wheat straw samples by measuring rates of mass loss of solid matter at a linear increase in temperature. The mentioned experiments were carried out using a derivatograph in an open-air environment. The influence of different factors was investigated, such as particle size, humidity levels, and the heating rate in the kinetics of devolatilization. As the measured values of mass loss and temperature functions transform in Arrhenius coordinates, the results are shown in the form of saddle curves. Such characteristics cannot be approximated with one equation in the form of Arrhenius law. For use in numerical applications, transformed functions can be approximated by linear regression for three separate intervals. Analysis of measurement resulting in granulation and moisture content variations shows that these factors have no significant influence. Tests of heating rate variations confirm the significance of this impact, especially in warmer regions. The influence of this factor should be more precisely investigated as a general variable, which should be the topic of further experiments.

  10. Quantitative analysis of regional myocardial performance in coronary artery disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, D. K.; Dodge, H. T.; Frimer, M.

    1975-01-01

    Findings from a group of subjects with significant coronary artery stenosis are given. A group of controls determined by use of a quantitative method for the study of regional myocardial performance based on the frame-by-frame analysis of biplane left ventricular angiograms are presented. Particular emphasis was placed upon the analysis of wall motion in terms of normalized segment dimensions, timing and velocity of contraction. The results were compared with the method of subjective assessment used clinically.

  11. A Model for the Regionalization of Higher Education: The Role and Contribution of Tuning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Knight

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A notable evolution in the internationalization of higher education in the last decade has been the increasing emphasis on regional level collaboration and reform initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to examine the process of regionalization through the lens of a conceptual model and to demonstrate how different Tuning initiatives serve as useful instruments in the application of the model, and the ultimate realization of higher education regionalization. The evolving nature and meaning of region and regionalization are explored in the first section of the paper. This leads to an analysis and conceptual mapping of the many terms used to describe the phenomenon. The proposed model is based on three distinct but complementary approaches; Functional, Organizational and Political Approaches (FOPA. The three approaches are inter-related. The model is generic in concept and purpose so that it can apply to the evolving process of higher education regionalization in different parts of the world. The article examines how the initiatives and implications of the Tuning process are directly related to the model and consequently make important contributions to the regionalization of higher education in all regions of the world.

  12. A regional and nonstationary model for partial duration series of extreme rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    as the explanatory variables in the regional and temporal domain, respectively. Further analysis of partial duration series with nonstationary and regional thresholds shows that the mean exceedances also exhibit a significant variation in space and time for some rainfall durations, while the shape parameter is found...... of extreme rainfall. The framework is built on a partial duration series approach with a nonstationary, regional threshold value. The model is based on generalized linear regression solved by generalized estimation equations. It allows a spatial correlation between the stations in the network and accounts...... furthermore for variable observation periods at each station and in each year. Marginal regional and temporal regression models solved by generalized least squares are used to validate and discuss the results of the full spatiotemporal model. The model is applied on data from a large Danish rain gauge network...

  13. Generation of Natural Runoff Monthly Series at Ungauged Sites Using a Regional Regressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Pumo

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Many hydrologic applications require reliable estimates of runoff in river basins to face the widespread lack of data, both in time and in space. A regional method for the reconstruction of monthly runoff series is here developed and applied to Sicily (Italy. A simple modeling structure is adopted, consisting of a regression-based rainfall–runoff model with four model parameters, calibrated through a two-step procedure. Monthly runoff estimates are based on precipitation, temperature, and exploiting the autocorrelation with runoff at the previous month. Model parameters are assessed by specific regional equations as a function of easily measurable physical and climate basin descriptors. The first calibration step is aimed at the identification of a set of parameters optimizing model performances at the level of single basin. Such “optimal” sets are used at the second step, part of a regional regression analysis, to establish the regional equations for model parameters assessment as a function of basin attributes. All the gauged watersheds across the region have been analyzed, selecting 53 basins for model calibration and using the other six basins exclusively for validation. Performances, quantitatively evaluated by different statistical indexes, demonstrate relevant model ability in reproducing the observed hydrological time-series at both the monthly and coarser time resolutions. The methodology, which is easily transferable to other arid and semi-arid areas, provides a reliable tool for filling/reconstructing runoff time series at any gauged or ungauged basin of a region.

  14. Regional analysis of renewable transportation fuels - production and consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaoshuai

    The transportation sector contributes more than a quarter of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Replacing fossil fuels with renewable fuels can be a key solution to mitigate GHG emissions from the transportation sector. Particularly, we have focused on land-based production of renewable fuels from landfills and brownfield in the southeastern region of the United States. These so call marginal lands require no direct land-use change to avoid environmental impact and, furthermore, have rendered opportunities for carbon trading and low-carbon intensity business. The resources potential and production capacity were derived using federal and state energy databases with the aid of GIS techniques. To maximize fuels production and land-use efficiency, a scheme of co-location renewable transportation fuels for production on landfills was conducted as a case study. Results of economic modeling analysis indicate that solar panel installed on landfill sites could generate a positive return within the project duration, but the biofuel production within the landfill facility is relatively uncertain, requiring proper sizing of the onsite processing facility, economic scale of production and available tax credits. From the consumers' perspective, a life-cycle cost analysis has been conducted to determine the economic and environmental implications of different transportation choices by consumers. Without tax credits, only the hybrid electric vehicles have lifetime total costs equivalent to a conventional vehicles differing by about 1 to 7%. With tax credits, electric and hybrid electric vehicles could be affordable and attain similar lifetime total costs as compared to conventional vehicles. The dissertation research has provided policy-makers and consumers a pathway of prioritizing investment on sustainable transportation systems with a balance of environmental benefits and economic feasibility.

  15. Analysis of the seismic catalogues for the Vrancea Region, Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romashkova, L.L.; Kossobokov, V.G.

    2005-11-01

    Vrancea (Romania) is a geographical region between Eastern and Southern Carpathian Mountains. The region is characterized by a rather high level of seismic activity mainly at intermediate (up to 200 km) depths. These intermediate-depth earthquakes occur between 45 deg-46 deg N and 26 deg-27 deg E. The shallow earthquakes are dispersed over a much broader territory. We performed the comparative analysis of earthquake catalogues available for Vrancea region aiming at the compilation of a data set, to be as complete and homogeneous as possible, which, hopefully, will be used for the prediction of strong and possibly moderate earthquakes in the region by means of M8 algorithm. The two catalogues under study are: 1) Global Hypocenter Data Base catalogue, NEIC (GHDB, 1989) and 2) local Vrancea seismic catalogue (Moldoveanu et al., 1995) and their updates. (author)

  16. Long-wave forcing for regional atmospheric modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Storch, H. von; Langenberg, H.; Feser, F. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    1999-07-01

    A new method, named 'spectral nudging', of linking a regional model to the driving large-scale model simulated or analyzed by a global model is proposed and tested. Spectral nudging is based on the idea that regional-scale climate statistics are conditioned by the interplay between continental-scale atmospheric conditions and such regional features as marginal seas and mountain ranges. Following this 'downscaling' idea, the regional model is forced to satisfy not only boundary conditions, possibly in a boundary sponge region, but also large-scale flow conditions inside the integration area. We demonstrate that spectral nudging succeeds in keeping the simulated state close to the driving state at large scales, while generating smaller-scale features. We also show that the standard boundary forcing technique in current use allows the regional model to develop internal states conflicting with the large-scale state. It is concluded that spectral nudging may be seen as a suboptimal and indirect data assimilation technique. (orig.) [German] Eine neue Methode, genannt 'spektrales nudging', ein Regionalmodell an das durch ein Globalmodell simulierte grossskalige Antriebsfeld zu koppeln, wird vorgestellt und getestet. Das spektrale nudging basiert auf der Annahme, dass regionale Klimastatistik durch die Wechselwirkung zwischen dem kontinental-skaligen atmosphaerischen Zustand und regionalen Gegebenheiten, wie kleinere Seen und Gebirgszuege, bestimmt wird. Demnach muss das Regionalmodell nicht nur die Randbedingungen erfuellen, sondern auch die grossskaligen Zustaende innerhalb des Integrationsgebietes wiedergeben koennen. Wir zeigen, dass durch das spektrale nudging der grossskalige modellierte Zustand nahe an dem des Antriebsfeldes liegt, ohne die Modellierung regionaler Phaenomene zu beeintraechtigen. Ausserdem zeigen wir, dass das Regionalmodell durch die zur Zeit benutzte Antriebstechnik ueber den Modellrand interne Felder produzieren kann

  17. Development of three dimensional ocean current model for coastal region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Takuya

    1999-12-01

    In order to study the migration behavior of radionuclides released into a coastal region around Japan, Princeton Ocean Model (POM) was introduced. This three-dimensional ocean current model was modified to be applied for oceanic simulations around Japan. This report describes the governing equations, numerical methods and model improvements. In addition, database system which is utilized for calculations and visualization system for graphical outputs are also described. Model simulation was carried out at off the area of Shimokita. Aomori-ken, Japan to investigate the effects of the boundary conditions on simulated results. (author)

  18. Discrimination of ginseng cultivation regions using light stable isotope analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kiwook; Song, Joo-Hyun; Heo, Sang-Cheol; Lee, Jin-Hee; Jung, In-Woo; Min, Ji-Sook

    2015-10-01

    Korean ginseng is considered to be a precious health food in Asia. Today, thieves frequently compromise ginseng farms by pervasive theft. Thus, studies regarding the characteristics of ginseng according to growth region are required in order to deter ginseng thieves and prevent theft. In this study, 6 regions were selected on the basis of Korea regional criteria (si, gun, gu), and two ginseng-farms were randomly selected from each of the 6 regions. Then 4-6 samples of ginseng were acquired from each ginseng farm. The stable isotopic compositions of H, O, C, and N of the collected ginseng samples were analyzed. As a result, differences in the hydrogen isotope ratios could be used to distinguish regional differences, and differences in the nitrogen isotope ratios yielded characteristic information regarding the farms from which the samples were obtained. Thus, stable isotope values could be used to differentiate samples according to regional differences. Therefore, stable isotope analysis serves as a powerful tool to discriminate the regional origin of Korean ginseng samples from across Korea. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Patterns of regional development in Serbia: A multivariate statistical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Čoček Ladislav

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The primary objective of this paper is to examine patterns of regional development in Serbia and to identify underlying geographical factors of these patterns. Principal component analysis is used to reveal the basic dimensions of regional differentiation. Its results are described in the context of findings from thematically similar research on Central European countries. An area's position in the national settlement system hierarchy has been identified as the strongest determinant of regional differentiation in Serbia. Other strong patterns seem to be connected with macro-geographical position. Success in economic development is most apparent in regions near the metropolitan area of Belgrade, and the general development level, along with a predisposition for agriculture, exhibits a strong north-south polarization. Specific attention is directed at demographic development, which is characterized by a west-east gradient. Central patterns of regional differentiation are similar to those uncovered in previous Central European research. Regional policy in Serbia should, therefore, try to learn from experience within this region to cope with processes and problems that are often quite similar. .

  20. Robust detection of discordant sites in regional frequency analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neykov, N.M.; Neytchev, P.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Todorov, V.K.

    2007-01-01

    The discordancy measure in terms of the sample L?moment ratios (L?CV, L?skewness, L?kurtosis) of the at?site data is widely recommended in the screening process of atypical sites in the regional frequency analysis (RFA). The sample mean and the covariance matrix of the L?moments ratios, on which the

  1. ORGANISATIONAL CULTURE ANALYSIS MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Mihaela Simona Maracine

    2012-01-01

    The studies and researches undertaken have demonstrated the importance of studying organisational culture because of the practical valences it presents and because it contributes to increasing the organisation’s performance. The analysis of the organisational culture’s dimensions allows observing human behaviour within the organisation and highlighting reality, identifying the strengths and also the weaknesses which have an impact on its functionality and development. In this paper, we try to...

  2. Uncertainty Categorization, Modeling, and Management for Regional Water Supply Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K. M.; AlSaati, A.; Alhassan, A.

    2016-12-01

    Many water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from growing demands, variability in supply and a changing climate. Short-term variation in water availability and demand; long-term uncertainty in climate, groundwater storage, and sectoral competition for water; and varying stakeholder perspectives on the impacts of water shortages make it difficult to assess the necessity of expensive infrastructure investments. We categorize these uncertainties on two dimensions: whether they are the result of stochastic variation or epistemic uncertainty, and whether the uncertainties can be described probabilistically or are deep uncertainties whose likelihood is unknown. We develop a decision framework that combines simulation for probabilistic uncertainty, sensitivity analysis for deep uncertainty and Bayesian decision analysis for uncertainties that are reduced over time with additional information. We apply this framework to two contrasting case studies - drought preparedness in Melbourne, Australia and fossil groundwater depletion in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia - to assess the impacts of different types of uncertainty on infrastructure decisions. Melbourne's water supply system relies on surface water, which is impacted by natural variation in rainfall, and a market-based system for managing water rights. Our results show that small, flexible investment increases can mitigate shortage risk considerably at reduced cost. Riyadh, by contrast, relies primarily on desalination for municipal use and fossil groundwater for agriculture, and a centralized planner makes allocation decisions. Poor regional groundwater measurement makes it difficult to know when groundwater pumping will become uneconomical, resulting in epistemic uncertainty. However, collecting more data can reduce the uncertainty, suggesting the need for different uncertainty modeling and management strategies in Riyadh than in Melbourne. We will categorize the two systems and propose appropriate

  3. Finite Length Analysis of Irregular Repetition Slotted ALOHA in the Waterfall Region

    OpenAIRE

    Amat, Alexandre Graell i; Liva, Gianluigi

    2018-01-01

    A finite length analysis is introduced for irregular repetition slotted ALOHA (IRSA) that enables to accurately estimate its performance in the moderate-to-high packet loss probability regime, i.e., in the so-called waterfall region. The analysis is tailored to the collision channel model, which enables mapping the description of the successive interference cancellation process onto the iterative erasure decoding of low-density parity-check codes. The analysis provides accurate estimates of t...

  4. Heat waves over Central Europe in regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan

    2014-05-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) have become a powerful tool for exploring impacts of global climate change on a regional scale. The aim of the study is to evaluate the capability of RCMs to reproduce characteristics of major heat waves over Central Europe in their simulations of the recent climate (1961-2000), with a focus on the most severe and longest Central European heat wave that occurred in 1994. We analyzed 7 RCM simulations with a high resolution (0.22°) from the ENSEMBLES project, driven by the ERA-40 reanalysis. In observed data (the E-OBS 9.0 dataset), heat waves were defined on the basis of deviations of daily maximum temperature (Tmax) from the 95% quantile of summer Tmax distribution in grid points over Central Europe. The same methodology was applied in the RCM simulations; we used corresponding 95% quantiles (calculated for each RCM and grid point) in order to remove the bias of modelled Tmax. While climatological characteristics of heat waves are reproduced reasonably well in the RCM ensemble, we found major deficiencies in simulating heat waves in individual years. For example, METNOHIRHAM simulated very severe heat waves in 1996, when no heat wave was observed. Focusing on the major 1994 heat wave, considerable differences in simulated temperature patterns were found among the RCMs. The differences in the temperature patterns were clearly linked to the simulated amount of precipitation during this event. The 1994 heat wave was almost absent in all RCMs that did not capture the observed precipitation deficit, while it was by far most pronounced in KNMI-RACMO that simulated virtually no precipitation over Central Europe during the 15-day period of the heat wave. By contrast to precipitation, values of evaporative fraction in the RCMs were not linked to severity of the simulated 1994 heat wave. This suggests a possible major contribution of other factors such as cloud cover and associated downward shortwave radiation. Therefore, a more detailed

  5. Evaluation of a regional chemistry transport model using a newly developed regional OMI NO2 retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhlmann, G.; Lam, Y. F.; Cheung, H. M.; Hartl, A.; Fung, J. C. H.; Chan, P. W.; Wenig, M. O.

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, we evaluate a high-resolution chemistry transport model (CTM) (3 km x 3 km spatial resolution) with the new Hong Kong (HK) NO2 retrieval developed for the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on-board the Aura satellite. The three-dimensional atmospheric chemistry was modelled in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China by the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system from October 2006 to January 2007. In the HK NO2 retrieval, tropospheric air mass factors (AMF) were recalculated using high-resolution ancillary parameters of surface reflectance, NO2 profile shapes and aerosol profiles of which the latter two were taken from the CMAQ simulation. We also tested four different aerosol parametrizations. Ground level measurements by the PRD Regional Air Quality Monitoring (RAQM) network were used as additional independent measurements. The HK NO2 retrieval increases the NO2 vertical column densities (VCD) by (+31 ± 38) %, when compared to NASA's standard product (SP2), and reduces the mean bias (MB) between satellite and ground measurements by 26 percentage points from -41 to -15 %. The correlation coefficient r is low for both satellite datasets (r = 0.35) due to the high spatial variability of NO2 concentrations. The correlation between CMAQ and the RAQM network is low (r ≈ 0.3) and the model underestimates the NO2 concentrations in the north-western model domain (Foshan and Guangzhou). We compared the CMAQ NO2 time series of the two main plumes with our regional OMI NO2 product. The model overestimates the NO2 VCDs by about 15 % in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, while the correlation coefficient is satisfactory (r = 0.56). In Foshan and Guangzhou, the correlation is low (r = 0.37) and the model underestimates the VCDs strongly (MB = -40 %). In addition, we estimated that the OMI VCDs are also underestimated by about 10 to 20 % in Foshan and Guangzhou because of the influence of the model parameters on the AMF. In this study

  6. Model-based automatic generation of grasping regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloss, David A.

    1993-01-01

    The problem of automatically generating stable regions for a robotic end effector on a target object, given a model of the end effector and the object is discussed. In order to generate grasping regions, an initial valid grasp transformation from the end effector to the object is obtained based on form closure requirements, and appropriate rotational and translational symmetries are associated with that transformation in order to construct a valid, continuous grasping region. The main result of this algorithm is a list of specific, valid grasp transformations of the end effector to the target object, and the appropriate combinations of translational and rotational symmetries associated with each specific transformation in order to produce a continuous grasp region.

  7. SESAME as a Model Project for Other Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winick, Herman

    2013-03-01

    UNESCO became the umbrella organization for SESAME at its Executive Board 164th session, May 2002. The following comments about SESAME were made by this board: ``a quintessential UNESCO project combining capacity building with vital peace-building through science'' and ``a model project for other regions.'' Now that SESAME is well underway, other regions (e.g.; Africa and Central Asia) should be made aware of this progress, and they should be welcomed to join SESAME as a first step in developing similar projects in their region. Students and scientists from other regions should be encouraged to attend SESAME Users' meeting, schools, workshops, etc. where they can learn about synchrotron radiation sources, beamlines, and science. They should be invited to join SESAME scientists in designing and commissioning accelerators and beamlines, gaining relevant experience for their own projects and helping SESAME in the process. Work supported by DOE Office of Basic Energy Sciences

  8. Crustal structure and tectonic model of the Arctic region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrov, Oleg; Morozov, Andrey; Shokalsky, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    We present a new model of the crustal and tectonic structure of the Arctic region north of 60° N latitude, constrained as a part of the international Atlas of Geological Maps of the Circumpolar Arctic under the aegis of the Commission for the Geological Map of the World. The region is largely...... formed by (i) Archean-Paleoproterozoic shields and platforms, (ii) orogenic belts of the Neoproterozoic to the Late Mesozoic ages overlain by platform and basin sediments, (iii) Cenozoic rift structures formed in part as a consequence of seafloor spreading in the North East Atlantic Ocean...... and thickness of the sedimentary cover and presents tectonic regionalization based on 18 major crustal types (oceanic, transitional, and continental) recognized in the Arctic. A 7600. km-long crustal geotransect across the region illustrates the details of its crustal and tectonic structure. We discuss...

  9. On global and regional spectral evaluation of global geopotential models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ustun, A; Abbak, R A

    2010-01-01

    Spectral evaluation of global geopotential models (GGMs) is necessary to recognize the behaviour of gravity signal and its error recorded in spherical harmonic coefficients and associated standard deviations. Results put forward in this wise explain the whole contribution of gravity data in different kinds that represent various sections of the gravity spectrum. This method is more informative than accuracy assessment methods, which use external data such as GPS-levelling. Comparative spectral evaluation for more than one model can be performed both in global and local sense using many spectral tools. The number of GGMs has grown with the increasing number of data collected by the dedicated satellite gravity missions, CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE. This fact makes it necessary to measure the differences between models and to monitor the improvements in the gravity field recovery. In this paper, some of the satellite-only and combined models are examined in different scales, globally and regionally, in order to observe the advances in the modelling of GGMs and their strengths at various expansion degrees for geodetic and geophysical applications. The validation of the published errors of model coefficients is a part of this evaluation. All spectral tools explicitly reveal the superiority of the GRACE-based models when compared against the models that comprise the conventional satellite tracking data. The disagreement between models is large in local/regional areas if data sets are different, as seen from the example of the Turkish territory

  10. Modelling the regional effects of climate change on air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giorgi, F.; Meleux, F.

    2007-01-01

    The life cycle of pollutants is affected by chemical as well as meteorological factors, such as wind, temperature, precipitation, solar radiation. Therefore, climatic changes induced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases may be expected to have significant effects on air quality. Because of the spatial variability of the pollutant emissions and climate-change signals, these effects are particularly relevant at the regional to local scales. This paper first briefly reviews modelling tools and methodologies used to study regional climate-change impacts on air quality. Patterns of regional precipitation, temperature, and sea-level changes emerging from the latest set of general circulation model projections are then discussed. Finally, the specific case of climate-change effects on summer ozone concentrations over Europe is presented to illustrate the potential impacts of climate change on pollutant amounts. It is concluded that climate change is an important factor that needs to be taken into account when designing future pollution-reduction policies. (authors)

  11. National Geo-Database for Biofuel Simulations and Regional Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Zhang, Xuesong; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Manowitz, David H.

    2012-04-01

    The goal of this project undertaken by GLBRC (Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center) Area 4 (Sustainability) modelers is to develop a national capability to model feedstock supply, ethanol production, and biogeochemical impacts of cellulosic biofuels. The results of this project contribute to sustainability goals of the GLBRC; i.e. to contribute to developing a sustainable bioenergy economy: one that is profitable to farmers and refiners, acceptable to society, and environmentally sound. A sustainable bioenergy economy will also contribute, in a fundamental way, to meeting national objectives on energy security and climate mitigation. The specific objectives of this study are to: (1) develop a spatially explicit national geodatabase for conducting biofuel simulation studies; (2) model biomass productivity and associated environmental impacts of annual cellulosic feedstocks; (3) simulate production of perennial biomass feedstocks grown on marginal lands; and (4) locate possible sites for the establishment of cellulosic ethanol biorefineries. To address the first objective, we developed SENGBEM (Spatially Explicit National Geodatabase for Biofuel and Environmental Modeling), a 60-m resolution geodatabase of the conterminous USA containing data on: (1) climate, (2) soils, (3) topography, (4) hydrography, (5) land cover/ land use (LCLU), and (6) ancillary data (e.g., road networks, federal and state lands, national and state parks, etc.). A unique feature of SENGBEM is its 2008-2010 crop rotation data, a crucially important component for simulating productivity and biogeochemical cycles as well as land-use changes associated with biofuel cropping. We used the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model to simulate biomass productivity and environmental impacts of annual and perennial cellulosic feedstocks across much of the USA on both croplands and marginal lands. We used data from LTER and eddy-covariance experiments within the study region to test the

  12. Tidal simulation using regional ocean modeling systems (ROMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaochun; Chao, Yi; Li, Zhijin; Dong, Changming; Farrara, John; McWilliams, James C.; Shum, C. K.; Wang, Yu; Matsumoto, Koji; Rosenfeld, Leslie K.; hide

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of our research is to test the capability of ROMS in simulating tides. The research also serves as a necessary exercise to implement tides in an operational ocean forecasting system. In this paper, we emphasize the validation of the model tide simulation. The characteristics and energetics of tides of the region will be reported in separate publications.

  13. Impact of surface waves in a Regional Climate Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rutgersson, Anna; Sætra, Oyvind; Semedo, Alvaro

    2010-01-01

    A coupled regional atmosphere-wave model system is developed with the purpose of investigating the impact of climate changes on the wave field, as well as feed-back effects of the wave field on the atmospheric parameters. This study focuses on the effects of introducing a two-way atmosphere...

  14. VCE Model of Community, Local, Regional Food Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Niewolny, Kim

    2016-01-01

    This document is a chart illustrating the Virginia Cooperative Extension model for food systems at the community, local and regional level. This chart shows an interrelationship between basic and applied research, leveraging of resources and opportunities, communication and marketing, assessment, evaluation and impact, knowledge, skills, and social change, facilitation of partnerships, and also teaching.

  15. Modeling of Regional Climate over Red Sea and Arabian Peninsula

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2011-04-09

    Observations, re-analyses, and climate model simulations show strong surface temperature trends in Middle East and Arabian Peninsula in the last 30 years. Trends are especially pronounced in summer exceeding +1K/decade. However, some regions, e.g., the So

  16. Numerical modeling techniques for flood analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anees, Mohd Talha; Abdullah, K.; Nawawi, M. N. M.; Ab Rahman, Nik Norulaini Nik; Piah, Abd. Rahni Mt.; Zakaria, Nor Azazi; Syakir, M. I.; Mohd. Omar, A. K.

    2016-12-01

    Topographic and climatic changes are the main causes of abrupt flooding in tropical areas. It is the need to find out exact causes and effects of these changes. Numerical modeling techniques plays a vital role for such studies due to their use of hydrological parameters which are strongly linked with topographic changes. In this review, some of the widely used models utilizing hydrological and river modeling parameters and their estimation in data sparse region are discussed. Shortcomings of 1D and 2D numerical models and the possible improvements over these models through 3D modeling are also discussed. It is found that the HEC-RAS and FLO 2D model are best in terms of economical and accurate flood analysis for river and floodplain modeling respectively. Limitations of FLO 2D in floodplain modeling mainly such as floodplain elevation differences and its vertical roughness in grids were found which can be improve through 3D model. Therefore, 3D model was found to be more suitable than 1D and 2D models in terms of vertical accuracy in grid cells. It was also found that 3D models for open channel flows already developed recently but not for floodplain. Hence, it was suggested that a 3D model for floodplain should be developed by considering all hydrological and high resolution topographic parameter's models, discussed in this review, to enhance the findings of causes and effects of flooding.

  17. Aircraft nonlinear stability analysis and multidimensional stability region estimation under icing conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang QU

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Icing is one of the crucial factors that could pose great threat to flight safety, and thus research on stability and stability region of aircraft safety under icing conditions is significant for control and flight. Nonlinear dynamical equations and models of aerodynamic coefficients of an aircraft are set up in this paper to study the stability and stability region of the aircraft under an icing condition. Firstly, the equilibrium points of the iced aircraft system are calculated and analyzed based on the theory of differential equation stability. Secondly, according to the correlation theory about equilibrium points and the stability region, this paper estimates the multidimensional stability region of the aircraft, based on which the stability regions before and after icing are compared. Finally, the results are confirmed by the time history analysis. The results can give a reference for stability analysis and envelope protection of the nonlinear system of an iced aircraft.

  18. The region matters: A comparative analysis of regional energy efficiency in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz-Fuensanta, María J.

    2016-01-01

    Owing to its strategic nature, the Spanish energy policy is primarily the responsibility of the central state. In spite of this, the Spanish legal code does in fact also confer certain powers to territorial governments in Spain, the Autonomous Communities. The objective of this work is specifically to investigate the differences between the energy performance of Spanish regions, which may be a consequence of specific features of their productive structures and resource endowments, in addition to the specific decisions adopted by each of them within the scope for action that they have in this area. With this aim in mind, we intend to calculate the inefficiency levels of Spanish regions as regards their use of various energy sources during the period 2003–2008, by estimating an environmental directional distance function. The results obtained confirm the existence of significant differences in the behaviour and evolution of regional energy efficiency and point to the need to pay more attention to energy planning in this territorial sphere. - Highlights: • Energy efficiency of Spanish regions by energy source is investigated. • The environmental directional distance function is used for the analysis. • Significant differences among regions in energy efficiency are observed. • Level of development and industrialization are not determinant to explain them.

  19. High-risk regions and outbreak modelling of tularemia in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desvars-Larrive, A; Liu, X; Hjertqvist, M; Sjöstedt, A; Johansson, A; Rydén, P

    2017-02-01

    Sweden reports large and variable numbers of human tularemia cases, but the high-risk regions are anecdotally defined and factors explaining annual variations are poorly understood. Here, high-risk regions were identified by spatial cluster analysis on disease surveillance data for 1984-2012. Negative binomial regression with five previously validated predictors (including predicted mosquito abundance and predictors based on local weather data) was used to model the annual number of tularemia cases within the high-risk regions. Seven high-risk regions were identified with annual incidences of 3·8-44 cases/100 000 inhabitants, accounting for 56·4% of the tularemia cases but only 9·3% of Sweden's population. For all high-risk regions, most cases occurred between July and September. The regression models explained the annual variation of tularemia cases within most high-risk regions and discriminated between years with and without outbreaks. In conclusion, tularemia in Sweden is concentrated in a few high-risk regions and shows high annual and seasonal variations. We present reproducible methods for identifying tularemia high-risk regions and modelling tularemia cases within these regions. The results may help health authorities to target populations at risk and lay the foundation for developing an early warning system for outbreaks.

  20. Regional SAR Image Segmentation Based on Fuzzy Clustering with Gamma Mixture Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X. L.; Zhao, Q. H.; Li, Y.

    2017-09-01

    Most of stochastic based fuzzy clustering algorithms are pixel-based, which can not effectively overcome the inherent speckle noise in SAR images. In order to deal with the problem, a regional SAR image segmentation algorithm based on fuzzy clustering with Gamma mixture model is proposed in this paper. First, initialize some generating points randomly on the image, the image domain is divided into many sub-regions using Voronoi tessellation technique. Each sub-region is regarded as a homogeneous area in which the pixels share the same cluster label. Then, assume the probability of the pixel to be a Gamma mixture model with the parameters respecting to the cluster which the pixel belongs to. The negative logarithm of the probability represents the dissimilarity measure between the pixel and the cluster. The regional dissimilarity measure of one sub-region is defined as the sum of the measures of pixels in the region. Furthermore, the Markov Random Field (MRF) model is extended from pixels level to Voronoi sub-regions, and then the regional objective function is established under the framework of fuzzy clustering. The optimal segmentation results can be obtained by the solution of model parameters and generating points. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm can be proved by the qualitative and quantitative analysis from the segmentation results of the simulated and real SAR images.

  1. Regional modelling of anthropogenic sulphur in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engardt, M.; Leong, C. P.

    A co-operative research project between the Malaysian Meteorological Service (MMS) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) focussing on the usage of an atmospheric transport and chemistry model, has just been initiated. Here, we describe the main features of the dispersion model and discuss a first set of calculations in light of available measurements of sulphuric species in Southeast Asia. According to our results, anthropogenic sulphur concentrations and depositions are particularly high near the large cities of the region, around a metal smelter in the southern Philippines, and in a region extending from northern Vietnam into southeastern China. These areas coincide with the high-emissions regions of Southeast Asia and we tentatively conclude that regional transport of acidifying species is not as far-reaching as in the mid-latitudes. From our calculations, and from supporting measurements we conclude that most of rural Southeast Asia is not yet severely affected by anthropogenic sulphur, but given the rapid rate of economical development in this region the situation may deteriorate quickly. Areas that are particularly at risk include the large cities, northern Vietnam, most of central Thailand, most of peninsular Malaysia, eastern Sumatra and parts of Java, all of which receive total-sulphur depositions in excess of 0.5 g S m -2 yr -1. Our model simulates sulphate in precipitation in accordance with measurements, but it has a tendency to overestimate atmospheric SO 2. It remains to be investigated whether this is a problem in the model formulation or a result of unrepresentative sampling. An immediate continuation of this study should be performed with higher spatial resolution than the currently used 100×100 km 2. Other imperfections in this model study, which should be addressed in future work, include parameterised vertical transport in deep convective clouds, the influence of natural emissions (primarily from volcanoes) on the

  2. A comparison of regional flood frequency analysis approaches in a simulation framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganora, D.; Laio, F.

    2016-07-01

    Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve at ungauged (or scarcely gauged) sites. Different RFA approaches exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest, but it is not clear in the literature if a specific method systematically outperforms the others. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison by building up a virtual environment based on synthetically generated data. The considered regional approaches include: (i) a unique regional curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model where homogeneous subregions are determined through cluster analysis; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially smooth estimation procedure where the parameters of the regional model vary continuously along the space. Virtual environments are generated considering different patterns of heterogeneity, including step change and smooth variations. If the region is heterogeneous, with the parent distribution changing continuously within the region, the spatially smooth regional approach outperforms the others, with overall errors 10-50% lower than the other methods. In the case of a step-change, the spatially smooth and clustering procedures perform similarly if the heterogeneity is moderate, while clustering procedures work better when the step-change is severe. To extend our findings, an extensive sensitivity analysis has been performed to investigate the effect of sample length, number of virtual stations, return period of the predicted quantile, variability of the scale parameter of the parent distribution, number of predictor variables and different parent distribution. Overall, the spatially smooth approach appears as the most robust approach as its performances are more stable across different patterns of heterogeneity, especially when short records are

  3. Automated region selection for analysis of dynamic cardiac SPECT data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Bella, E. V. R.; Gullberg, G. T.; Barclay, A. B.; Eisner, R. L.

    1997-06-01

    Dynamic cardiac SPECT using Tc-99m labeled teboroxime can provide kinetic parameters (washin, washout) indicative of myocardial blood flow. A time-consuming and subjective step of the data analysis is drawing regions of interest to delineate blood pool and myocardial tissue regions. The time-activity curves of the regions are then used to estimate local kinetic parameters. In this work, the appropriate regions are found automatically, in a manner similar to that used for calculating maximum count circumferential profiles in conventional static cardiac studies. The drawbacks to applying standard static circumferential profile methods are the high noise level and high liver uptake common in dynamic teboroxime studies. Searching along each ray for maxima to locate the myocardium does not typically provide useful information. Here we propose an iterative scheme in which constraints are imposed on the radii searched along each ray. The constraints are based on the shape of the time-activity curves of the circumferential profile members and on an assumption that the short axis slices are approximately circular. The constraints eliminate outliers and help to reduce the effects of noise and liver activity. Kinetic parameter estimates from the automatically generated regions were comparable to estimates from manually selected regions in dynamic canine teboroxime studies.

  4. Residential energy consumption: A convergence analysis across Chinese regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrerias, M.J.; Aller, Carlos; Ordóñez, Javier

    2017-01-01

    The process of urbanization and the raise of living standards in China have led an increasing trend in the patterns of residential consumption. Projections for the population growth rate in urban areas do not paint a very optimistic picture for energy conservation policies. In addition, the concentration of economic activities around coastal areas calls for new prospects to be formulated for energy policy. In this context, the objective of this paper is twofold. First, we analyse the effect of the urbanization process of the Chinese economy in terms of the long-run patterns of residential energy consumption at national level. By using the concept of club convergence, we examine whether electricity and coal consumption in rural and urban areas converge to the same long-run equilibrium or whether in fact they diverge. Second, the impact of the regional concentration of the economic activity on energy consumption patterns is also assessed by source of energy across Chinese regions from 1995 to 2011. Our results suggest that the process of urbanization has led to coal being replaced by electricity in urban residential energy consumption. In rural areas, the evidence is mixed. The club convergence analysis confirms that rural and urban residential energy consumption converge to different steady-states. At the regional level, we also confirm the effect of the regional concentration of economic activity on residential energy consumption. The existence of these regional clusters converging to different equilibrium levels is indicative of the need of regional-tailored set of energy policies in China.

  5. Spatio-temporal analysis of regional PV generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nuño Martinez, Edgar; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) power is growing in importance worldwide and hence needs to be represented in operation and planning of power system. As opposed to traditional generation technologies, it is characterized by exhibiting both a high variability and a significant spatial dependence. This paper...... presents a fundamental analysis of regional solar generation time series, aiming to potentially facilitate large-scale solar integration. It will focus on characterizing the underlying dependence structure at the system level as well as describing both statistical and temporal properties of regional PV...

  6. Modeling of hydrological processes in arid agricultural regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang LI,Xiaomin MAO,Shaozhong KANG,David A. BARRY

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding of hydrological processes, including consideration of interactions between vegetation growth and water transfer in the root zone, underpins efficient use of water resources in arid-zone agriculture. Water transfers take place in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum, and include groundwater dynamics, unsaturated zone flow, evaporation/transpiration from vegetated/bare soil and surface water, agricultural canal/surface water flow and seepage, and well pumping. Models can be categorized into three classes: (1 regional distributed hydrological models with various land uses, (2 groundwater-soil-plant-atmosphere continuum models that neglect lateral water fluxes, and (3 coupled models with groundwater flow and unsaturated zone water dynamics. This review highlights, in addition, future research challenges in modeling arid-zone agricultural systems, e.g., to effectively assimilate data from remote sensing, and to fully reflect climate change effects at various model scales.

  7. Regional water resources assessments using an uncertain modelling approach: The example of Swaziland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Ndzabandzaba

    2017-04-01

    New hydrological insights for this region: The analysis of hydrological indices highlights the regional variations in hydrological processes and sub-basin response. The adopted modelling approach provides further insight into all of the uncertainties associated with quantifying the available water resources of Swaziland. The study has provided more insight into the spatial variability of the hydrological response and existing development impacts than was previously available. These new insights should provide an improved basis for future water management in Swaziland.

  8. Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jens H.; Carter, Timothy R.; Rummukainen, Markku

    2007-01-01

    This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research articles documenting co-ordinated work carried out within a 3-year European Union project 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects' (PRUDENCE). The main objective...... of the PRUDENCE project was to provide high resolution climate change scenarios for Europe at the end of the twenty-first century by means of dynamical downscaling (regional climate modelling) of global climate simulations. The first part of the issue comprises seven overarching PRUDENCE papers on: (1) the design...... of the model simulations and analyses of climate model performance, (2 and 3) evaluation and intercomparison of simulated climate changes, (4 and 5) specialised analyses of impacts on water resources and on other sectors including agriculture, ecosystems, energy, and transport, (6) investigation of extreme...

  9. Modeling of air currents in the Gulf Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, T.J.; Ellis, J.S.; Foster, C.S.; Foster, K.T.; Baskett, R.L.; Nasstrom, J.S.; Schalk, W.W.

    1992-01-01

    The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability modeled the wind flow in the Gulf Region in order to make projections of the Kuwait oil fires pollution dispersion. Extensive meteorological models incorporating explicit terrain influences to the flow fields were routinely employed through a six month international assessment support effort organized by the World Meteorological Organization and US scientific research agencies. Results show generally close agreement with visible imagery of the smoke plumes as detected by meteorological satellites. However, there are some examples of significant disagreement or failure of the meteorological models. These failures are most likely directly linked to missing or unavailable weather observations

  10. ROCK PROPERTIES MODEL ANALYSIS MODEL REPORT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clinton Lum

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis and Model Report (AMR) is to document Rock Properties Model (RPM) 3.1 with regard to input data, model methods, assumptions, uncertainties and limitations of model results, and qualification status of the model. The report also documents the differences between the current and previous versions and validation of the model. The rock properties models are intended principally for use as input to numerical physical-process modeling, such as of ground-water flow and/or radionuclide transport. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. This work was conducted in accordance with the following planning documents: WA-0344, ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1998'' (SNL 1997, WA-0358), ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1999'' (SNL 1999), and the technical development plan, Rock Properties Model Version 3.1, (CRWMS MandO 1999c). The Interim Change Notice (ICNs), ICN 02 and ICN 03, of this AMR were prepared as part of activities being conducted under the Technical Work Plan, TWP-NBS-GS-000003, ''Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model, Process Model Report, Revision 01'' (CRWMS MandO 2000b). The purpose of ICN 03 is to record changes in data input status due to data qualification and verification activities. These work plans describe the scope, objectives, tasks, methodology, and implementing procedures for model construction. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The work scope for this activity consists of the following: (1) Conversion of the input data (laboratory measured porosity data, x-ray diffraction mineralogy, petrophysical calculations of bound water, and petrophysical calculations of porosity) for each borehole into stratigraphic coordinates; (2) Re-sampling and merging of data sets; (3) Development of geostatistical simulations of porosity; (4

  11. Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ming Lu; Hai Zhu; Xia Luo; Lei Lei

    2014-01-01

    It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model...

  12. Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, L.

    1990-01-01

    In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

  13. Multiscale Signal Analysis and Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Zayed, Ahmed

    2013-01-01

    Multiscale Signal Analysis and Modeling presents recent advances in multiscale analysis and modeling using wavelets and other systems. This book also presents applications in digital signal processing using sampling theory and techniques from various function spaces, filter design, feature extraction and classification, signal and image representation/transmission, coding, nonparametric statistical signal processing, and statistical learning theory. This book also: Discusses recently developed signal modeling techniques, such as the multiscale method for complex time series modeling, multiscale positive density estimations, Bayesian Shrinkage Strategies, and algorithms for data adaptive statistics Introduces new sampling algorithms for multidimensional signal processing Provides comprehensive coverage of wavelets with presentations on waveform design and modeling, wavelet analysis of ECG signals and wavelet filters Reviews features extraction and classification algorithms for multiscale signal and image proce...

  14. Rethinking the Psychogenic Model of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome: Somatoform Disorders and Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Renee J.; Chopra, Pradeep; Richardi, Toni

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Explaining the etiology of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) from the psychogenic model is exceedingly unsophisticated, because neurocognitive deficits, neuroanatomical abnormalities, and distortions in cognitive mapping are features of CRPS pathology. More importantly, many people who have developed CRPS have no history of mental illness. The psychogenic model offers comfort to physicians and mental health practitioners (MHPs) who have difficulty understanding pain maintained by newly uncovered neuro inflammatory processes. With increased education about CRPS through a biopsychosocial perspective, both physicians and MHPs can better diagnose, treat, and manage CRPS symptomatology. PMID:24223338

  15. Application of turbulence modeling to predict surface heat transfer in stagnation flow region of circular cylinder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chi R.; Yeh, Frederick C.

    1987-01-01

    A theoretical analysis and numerical calculations for the turbulent flow field and for the effect of free-stream turbulence on the surface heat transfer rate of a stagnation flow are presented. The emphasis is on the modeling of turbulence and its augmentation of surface heat transfer rate. The flow field considered is the region near the forward stagnation point of a circular cylinder in a uniform turbulent mean flow. The free stream is steady and incompressible with a Reynolds number of the order of 10 to the 5th power and turbulence intensity of less than 5 percent. For this analysis, the flow field is divided into three regions: (1) a uniform free-stream region where the turbulence is homogeneous and isotropic; (2) an external viscid flow region where the turbulence is distorted by the variation of the mean flow velocity; and, (3) an anisotropic turbulent boundary layer region over the cylinder surface. The turbulence modeling techniques used are the kappa-epsilon two-equation model in the external flow region and the time-averaged turbulence transport equation in the boundary layer region. The turbulence double correlations, the mean velocity, and the mean temperature within the boundary layer are solved numerically from the transport equations. The surface heat transfer rate is calculated as functions of the free-stream turbulence longitudinal microlength scale, the turbulence intensity, and the Reynolds number.

  16. Multivariate analysis: models and method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanz Perucha, J.

    1990-01-01

    Data treatment techniques are increasingly used since computer methods result of wider access. Multivariate analysis consists of a group of statistic methods that are applied to study objects or samples characterized by multiple values. A final goal is decision making. The paper describes the models and methods of multivariate analysis

  17. Domain specific modeling and analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacob, Joost Ferdinand

    2008-01-01

    It is desirable to model software systems in such a way that analysis of the systems, and tool development for such analysis, is readily possible and feasible in the context of large scientific research projects. This thesis emphasizes the methodology that serves as a basis for such developments.

  18. Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial

  19. Climatic features of the Red Sea from a regional assimilative model

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

    2016-08-16

    The Advanced Research version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used to generate a downscaled, 10-km resolution regional climate dataset over the Red Sea and adjacent region. The model simulations are performed based on two, two-way nested domains of 30- and 10-km resolutions assimilating all conventional observations using a cyclic three-dimensional variational approach over an initial 12-h period. The improved initial conditions are then used to generate regional climate products for the following 24 h. We combined the resulting daily 24-h datasets to construct a 15-year Red Sea atmospheric downscaled product from 2000 to 2014. This 15-year downscaled dataset is evaluated via comparisons with various in situ and gridded datasets. Our analysis indicates that the assimilated model successfully reproduced the spatial and temporal variability of temperature, wind, rainfall, relative humidity and sea level pressure over the Red Sea region. The model also efficiently simulated the seasonal and monthly variability of wind patterns, the Red Sea Convergence Zone and associated rainfall. Our results suggest that dynamical downscaling and assimilation of available observations improve the representation of regional atmospheric features over the Red Sea compared to global analysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. We use the dataset to describe the atmospheric climatic conditions over the Red Sea region. © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society.

  20. Modelling non-hydrostatic processes in sill regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, A.; Xing, J.; Davies, A.; Berntsen, J.

    2007-12-01

    We use a non-hydrostatic model to compute tidally induced flow and mixing in the region of bottom topography representing the sill at the entrance to Loch Etive (Scotland). This site is chosen since detailed measurements were recently made there. With non-hydrostatic dynamics in the model our results showed that the model could reproduce the observed flow characteristics, e.g., hydraulic transition, flow separation and internal waves. However, when calculations were performed using the model in the hydrostatic form, significant artificial convective mixing occurred. This influenced the computed temperature and flow field. We will discuss in detail the effects of non-hydrostatic dynamics on flow over the sill, especially investigate non-linear and non-hydrostatic contributions to modelled internal waves and internal wave energy fluxes.

  1. Evaluation of an ensemble of Arctic regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rinke, A.; Dethloff, K.; Cassano, J. J.

    2006-01-01

    Simulations of eight different regional climate models (RCMs) have been performed for the period September 1997-September 1998, which coincides with the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project period. Each of the models employed approximately the same domain covering the western......, temperature, cloud cover, and long-/shortwave downward radiation between the individual model simulations are investigated. With this work, we quantify the scatter among the models and therefore the magnitude of disagreement and unreliability of current Arctic RCM simulations. Even with the relatively...... constrained experimental design we notice a considerable scatter among the different RCMs. We found the largest across-model scatter in the 2 m temperature over land, in the surface radiation fluxes, and in the cloud cover which implies a reduced confidence level for these variables....

  2. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    The purpose of the project was to conduct model simulations for past and future climate change with respect to the proposed Yucca Mtn. repository. The authors report on three main topics, one of which is boundary conditions for paleo-hindcast studies. These conditions are necessary for the conduction of three to four model simulations. The boundary conditions have been prepared for future runs. The second topic is (a) comparing the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with observations and other GCMs; and (b) development of a better precipitation data base for the Yucca Mtn. region for comparisons with models. These tasks have been completed. The third topic is preliminary assessments of future climate change. Energy balance model (EBM) simulations suggest that the greenhouse effect will likely dominate climate change at Yucca Mtn. for the next 10,000 years. The EBM study should improve rational choice of GCM CO{sub 2} scenarios for future climate change.

  3. BWR regional instability model and verification on ringhals-1 test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hotta, Akitoshi; Suzawa, Yojiro

    1996-01-01

    Regional instability is known as one type of the coupled neutronic-thermohydraulic phenomena of boiling water reactors (BWRs), where the thermohydraulic density wave propagation mechanism is predominant. Historically, it has been simulated by the three-dimensional time domain code in spite of its significant computing time. On the other hand, there have been proposals to apply the frequency domain models in regional instability considering the subcriticality of the higher neutronic mode. However, their application still remains in corewide instability mainly because of the lack of more detailed methodological and empirical studies. In this study, the current version of the frequency domain model was extended and verified based on actual core regional instability measurement data. The mathematical model LAPUR, the well-known frequency domain stability code, was reviewed from the standpoint of pure thermohydraulics and neutronic-thermohydraulic interaction mechanisms. Based on the ex-core loop test data, the original LAPUR mixed friction and local pressure loss model was modified, taking into account the different dynamic behavior of these two pressure-loss mechanisms. The perturbation term of the two-phase friction multiplier, which is the sum of the derivative of void fraction and subcool enthalpy, was adjusted theoretically. The adequacy of the instability evaluation system was verified based on the Ringhals unit 1 test data, which were supplied to participants of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency BWR Stability Benchmark Project

  4. Stochastic modeling analysis and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Nelson, Barry L

    1995-01-01

    A coherent introduction to the techniques for modeling dynamic stochastic systems, this volume also offers a guide to the mathematical, numerical, and simulation tools of systems analysis. Suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduate-level industrial engineers and management science majors, it proposes modeling systems in terms of their simulation, regardless of whether simulation is employed for analysis. Beginning with a view of the conditions that permit a mathematical-numerical analysis, the text explores Poisson and renewal processes, Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, se

  5. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  6. Data analysis and approximate models model choice, location-scale, analysis of variance, nonparametric regression and image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Davies, Patrick Laurie

    2014-01-01

    Introduction IntroductionApproximate Models Notation Two Modes of Statistical AnalysisTowards One Mode of Analysis Approximation, Randomness, Chaos, Determinism ApproximationA Concept of Approximation Approximation Approximating a Data Set by a Model Approximation Regions Functionals and EquivarianceRegularization and Optimality Metrics and DiscrepanciesStrong and Weak Topologies On Being (almost) Honest Simulations and Tables Degree of Approximation and p-values ScalesStability of Analysis The Choice of En(α, P) Independence Procedures, Approximation and VaguenessDiscrete Models The Empirical Density Metrics and Discrepancies The Total Variation Metric The Kullback-Leibler and Chi-Squared Discrepancies The Po(λ) ModelThe b(k, p) and nb(k, p) Models The Flying Bomb Data The Student Study Times Data OutliersOutliers, Data Analysis and Models Breakdown Points and Equivariance Identifying Outliers and Breakdown Outliers in Multivariate Data Outliers in Linear Regression Outliers in Structured Data The Location...

  7. Modeling and Analysis of Space Based Transceivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Michael S.; Price, Jeremy C.; Abbott, Ben; Liebetreu, John; Reinhart, Richard C.; Kacpura, Thomas J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the tool chain, methodology, and initial results of a study to provide a thorough, objective, and quantitative analysis of the design alternatives for space Software Defined Radio (SDR) transceivers. The approach taken was to develop a set of models and tools for describing communications requirements, the algorithm resource requirements, the available hardware, and the alternative software architectures, and generate analysis data necessary to compare alternative designs. The Space Transceiver Analysis Tool (STAT) was developed to help users identify and select representative designs, calculate the analysis data, and perform a comparative analysis of the representative designs. The tool allows the design space to be searched quickly while permitting incremental refinement in regions of higher payoff.

  8. An alternative approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the Aegean region using Monte Carlo simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherill, Graeme; Burton, Paul W.

    2010-09-01

    The Aegean is the most seismically active and tectonically complex region in Europe. Damaging earthquakes have occurred here throughout recorded history, often resulting in considerable loss of life. The Monte Carlo method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is used to determine the level of ground motion likely to be exceeded in a given time period. Multiple random simulations of seismicity are generated to calculate, directly, the ground motion for a given site. Within the seismic hazard analysis we explore the impact of different seismic source models, incorporating both uniform zones and distributed seismicity. A new, simplified, seismic source model, derived from seismotectonic interpretation, is presented for the Aegean region. This is combined into the epistemic uncertainty analysis alongside existing source models for the region, and models derived by a K-means cluster analysis approach. Seismic source models derived using the K-means approach offer a degree of objectivity and reproducibility into the otherwise subjective approach of delineating seismic sources using expert judgment. Similar review and analysis is undertaken for the selection of peak ground acceleration (PGA) attenuation models, incorporating into the epistemic analysis Greek-specific models, European models and a Next Generation Attenuation model. Hazard maps for PGA on a "rock" site with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years are produced and different source and attenuation models are compared. These indicate that Greek-specific attenuation models, with their smaller aleatory variability terms, produce lower PGA hazard, whilst recent European models and Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) model produce similar results. The Monte Carlo method is extended further to assimilate epistemic uncertainty into the hazard calculation, thus integrating across several appropriate source and PGA attenuation models. Site condition and fault-type are also integrated into the hazard

  9. Dispersive processes in models of regional radionuclide migration. Technical memorandum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evenson, D.E.; Dettinger, M.D.

    1980-05-01

    Three broad areas of concern in the development of aquifer scale transport models will be local scale diffusion and dispersion processes, regional scale dispersion processes, and numerical problems associated with the advection-dispersion equation. Local scale dispersion processes are fairly well understood and accessible to observation. These processes will generally be dominated in large scale systems by regional processes, or macro-dispersion. Macro-dispersion is primarily the result of large scale heterogeneities in aquifer properties. In addition, the effects of many modeling approximations are often included in the process. Because difficulties arise in parameterization of this large scale phenomenon, parameterization should be based on field measurements made at the same scale as the transport process of interest or else partially circumvented through the application of a probabilistic advection model. Other problems associated with numerical transport models include difficulties with conservation of mass, stability, numerical dissipation, overshoot, flexibility, and efficiency. We recommend the random-walk model formulation for Lawrence Livermore Laboratory's purposes as the most flexible, accurate and relatively efficient modeling approach that overcomes these difficulties

  10. Analysis of supply adventure tourism in the South Bohemian Region

    OpenAIRE

    Klečacká, Simona

    2009-01-01

    The thesis, entitled "Analysis of supply adventure tourism in the South Bohemian Region" is to describe and analyze the options and instruments of tourism in selected destination. Work processes typology adventure tourism and also defines key terms related to this topic. It then focuses on identifying different types of adventure tourism, cooperation in the design of an appropriate design and implementation of a new product in the field of adventure tourism.

  11. Microfinance around the world – regional SWOT analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Harmincova, Zuzana; Janda, Karel

    2014-01-01

    The paper focuses on comparison of the functioning of microfinance in various developing regions of the world, as well as on the analysis of the overall functioning, effectiveness, strengths and weaknesses, potential threats and opportunities in the microfinance markets. The conclusion offers several possibilities and insights on how microfinance could be more efficient in financial terms. The paper also presents a brief evaluation of the benefits of microfinance and based on its findings pro...

  12. Regional statistical and economic analysis of small and medium-sized businesses development in Zhytomyr region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.I. Pavlova

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Small and medium-sized businesses play an important role in the development of the regional economic system in particular and in solving a number of the following local problems: developing competition, developing the market for goods and services, providing jobs for the able-bodied population, raising living standards and improving the social environment in society. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the state and development of small and medium-sized businesses in the Zhytomyr region, to analyze its contribution to the economic development of the region, and to identify the main problems existing in the region. According to the indicators of state statistics, the author presents the general characteristics of enterprises in the Zhytomyr region from 2012 to 2016 in the context of indicators of the number of enterprises, the number of employed workers and the volume of the products sold, highlighting the activities of small enterprises and assessing their share in general levels. In addition, the paper provides the description of the activities of individual entrepreneurs. The structural comparison for the above-listed indicators of the distribution of influence on the economic system of the Zhytomyr region in terms of enterprises by size is presented. In terms of quantity 93,5 % are small enterprises that provide 31,4 % of the total number of employees with work and make up 23,1 % of the total volume of sales. Average enterprises in these indicators have 6,4 %, 62,0 % and 54,8 % respectively. The statistical and economic analysis of the structure of small enterprises by types of economic activity, by indicators of the number of registered enterprises, and by the volumes of sold products is carried out. The uniformity of the distribution is estimated using the index of the concentration coefficient. The indicators of revenues to budgets of different levels from small and medium-sized businesses are set. The paper presents and summarizes the

  13. AN ANALYSIS OF THE ENTREPRENEURIAL POTENTIAL IN OLTENIA TOURIST REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionuţ Cosmin BĂLOI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Tourism can bring an attractive horizon for Romania: the projects can generate jobs, cooperation between the touristic destinations, the increase of living standards and local people revenues. This paper treats an issue of tourist business administration and seeks to assess the actual potential of tourist resources and determining the differences between the Oltenia's actual touristic exploitation and their growth potential. We develop a model of evaluate the tourist resources, the industry efficiency and also their attractiveness for entrepreneurial initiatives. Their quantification can be statistically correlated leading to a rethinking of models that shape the parameters of regional competitiveness. The synthetic and the graphic tools highlights the most important features of the competitiveness of tourism for the region of Oltenia.

  14. STATISTICAL GROWTH MODELING OF LONGITUDINAL DT-MRI FOR REGIONAL CHARACTERIZATION OF EARLY BRAIN DEVELOPMENT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi, Neda; Prastawa, Marcel; Fletcher, P Thomas; Gilmore, John H; Lin, Weili; Gerig, Guido

    2012-01-01

    A population growth model that represents the growth trajectories of individual subjects is critical to study and understand neurodevelopment. This paper presents a framework for jointly estimating and modeling individual and population growth trajectories, and determining significant regional differences in growth pattern characteristics applied to longitudinal neuroimaging data. We use non-linear mixed effect modeling where temporal change is modeled by the Gompertz function. The Gompertz function uses intuitive parameters related to delay, rate of change, and expected asymptotic value; all descriptive measures which can answer clinical questions related to growth. Our proposed framework combines nonlinear modeling of individual trajectories, population analysis, and testing for regional differences. We apply this framework to the study of early maturation in white matter regions as measured with diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Regional differences between anatomical regions of interest that are known to mature differently are analyzed and quantified. Experiments with image data from a large ongoing clinical study show that our framework provides descriptive, quantitative information on growth trajectories that can be directly interpreted by clinicians. To our knowledge, this is the first longitudinal analysis of growth functions to explain the trajectory of early brain maturation as it is represented in DTI.

  15. Modelling of Asphalt Concrete Stiffness in the Linear Viscoelastic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazurek, Grzegorz; Iwański, Marek

    2017-10-01

    Stiffness modulus is a fundamental parameter used in the modelling of the viscoelastic behaviour of bituminous mixtures. On the basis of the master curve in the linear viscoelasticity range, the mechanical properties of asphalt concrete at different loading times and temperatures can be predicted. This paper discusses the construction of master curves under rheological mathematical models i.e. the sigmoidal function model (MEPDG), the fractional model, and Bahia and co-workers’ model in comparison to the results from mechanistic rheological models i.e. the generalized Huet-Sayegh model, the generalized Maxwell model and the Burgers model. For the purposes of this analysis, the reference asphalt concrete mix (denoted as AC16W) intended for the binder coarse layer and for traffic category KR3 (5×105 controlled strain mode. The fixed strain level was set at 25με to guarantee that the stiffness modulus of the asphalt concrete would be tested in a linear viscoelasticity range. The master curve was formed using the time-temperature superposition principle (TTSP). The stiffness modulus of asphalt concrete was determined at temperatures 10°C, 20°C and 40°C and at loading times (frequency) of 0.1, 0.3, 1, 3, 10, 20 Hz. The model parameters were fitted to the rheological models using the original programs based on the nonlinear least squares sum method. All the rheological models under analysis were found to be capable of predicting changes in the stiffness modulus of the reference asphalt concrete to satisfactory accuracy. In the cases of the fractional model and the generalized Maxwell model, their accuracy depends on a number of elements in series. The best fit was registered for Bahia and co-workers model, generalized Maxwell model and fractional model. As for predicting the phase angle parameter, the largest discrepancies between experimental and modelled results were obtained using the fractional model. Except the Burgers model, the model matching quality was

  16. Turbulence modeling and surface heat transfer in a stagnation flow region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, C. R.; Yeh, F. C.

    1987-01-01

    Analysis for the turbulent flow field and the effect of freestream turbulence on the surface heat transfer rate of a stagnation flow is presented. The emphasis is on modeling and its augmentation of surface heat transfer rate. The flow field considered is the region near the forward stagnation point of a circular cylinder in a uniform turbulent mean flow.

  17. Freight planning and regional cooperation in the Piedmont Atlantic megaregion : a regional models of cooperation peer exchange summary report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-08

    This report highlights key themes identified at the Freight Planning and Regional Cooperation in the Piedmont Atlantic Megaregion Peer Exchange held on January 31, 2017 and February 1, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. The Regional Models of Cooperatio...

  18. GIS modelling of solar potential in Toplica region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valjarević Aleksandar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we investigated possible potential solar area on Toplica region based on GIS (Geographical Information system and using a special kriging method with the help of open sources GIS software Quantum GIS. This kriging method is very special to vectorized and calculated the small area. The statistical approach calculated between datasets of three meteorological stations (Niš, Prokuplje, Kuršumlija. Data using of insolation from that meteorological stations from the period of (1953-2013 is useful for a solution to calculating solar potential. The also used parameter is hypsometry of relief of the whole area of Toplica region. Area of Toplica region is 2.231 km2 with a population of 90600 citizens. Divided into fourth municipalities (Prokuplje, Žitoradja, Black, Kuršumlija. The GIS modeling indicates that ideal areas for solar development are located the potential places in Toplica region. Only 13.6 km2 of the head model scores that were in the 90-100% range. However, given the statewide high insolation values with minimal variance, solar projects may be better suited for small-scale residential or commercial projects.

  19. Analysis of Roanoke Region Weather Patterns Under Global Teleconnections

    OpenAIRE

    LaRocque, Eric John

    2006-01-01

    This work attempts to relate global teleconnections, through physical phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Artic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern to synoptic-scale weather patterns and precipitation in the Roanoke, Virginia region. The first chapter describes the behavior of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by implementing non-homogeneous and homogeneous Markov Chain models on a monthly time series o...

  20. Applying Multimodel Ensemble from Regional Climate Models for Improving Runoff Projections on Semiarid Regions of Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Galiano, S. G.; Olmos, P.; Giraldo Osorio, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    In the Mediterranean area, significant changes on temperature and precipitation are expected throughout the century. These trends could exacerbate the existing conditions in regions already vulnerable to climatic variability, reducing the water availability. Improving knowledge about plausible impacts of climate change on water cycle processes at basin scale, is an important step for building adaptive capacity to the impacts in this region, where severe water shortages are expected for the next decades. RCMs ensemble in combination with distributed hydrological models with few parameters, constitutes a valid and robust methodology to increase the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. For reaching this objective, a novel methodology for building Regional Climate Models (RCMs) ensembles of meteorological variables (rainfall an temperatures), was applied. RCMs ensembles are justified for increasing the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. The evaluation of RCMs goodness-of-fit to build the ensemble is based on empirical probability density functions (PDF) extracted from both RCMs dataset and a highly resolution gridded observational dataset, for the time period 1961-1990. The applied method is considering the seasonal and annual variability of the rainfall and temperatures. The RCMs ensembles constitute the input to a distributed hydrological model at basin scale, for assessing the runoff projections. The selected hydrological model is presenting few parameters in order to reduce the uncertainties involved. The study basin corresponds to a head basin of Segura River Basin, located in the South East of Spain. The impacts on runoff and its trend from observational dataset and climate projections, were assessed. Considering the control period 1961-1990, plausible significant decreases in runoff for the time period 2021-2050, were identified.

  1. A probabilistic method for streamflow projection and associated uncertainty analysis in a data sparse alpine region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Weiwei; Yang, Tao; Shi, Pengfei; Xu, Chong-yu; Zhang, Ke; Zhou, Xudong; Shao, Quanxi; Ciais, Philippe

    2018-06-01

    Climate change imposes profound influence on regional hydrological cycle and water security in many alpine regions worldwide. Investigating regional climate impacts using watershed scale hydrological models requires a large number of input data such as topography, meteorological and hydrological data. However, data scarcity in alpine regions seriously restricts evaluation of climate change impacts on water cycle using conventional approaches based on global or regional climate models, statistical downscaling methods and hydrological models. Therefore, this study is dedicated to development of a probabilistic model to replace the conventional approaches for streamflow projection. The probabilistic model was built upon an advanced Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) approach directly fed by the large-scale climate predictor variables and tested in a typical data sparse alpine region, the Kaidu River basin in Central Asia. Results show that BNN model performs better than the general methods across a number of statistical measures. The BNN method with flexible model structures by active indicator functions, which reduce the dependence on the initial specification for the input variables and the number of hidden units, can work well in a data limited region. Moreover, it can provide more reliable streamflow projections with a robust generalization ability. Forced by the latest bias-corrected GCM scenarios, streamflow projections for the 21st century under three RCP emission pathways were constructed and analyzed. Briefly, the proposed probabilistic projection approach could improve runoff predictive ability over conventional methods and provide better support to water resources planning and management under data limited conditions as well as enable a facilitated climate change impact analysis on runoff and water resources in alpine regions worldwide.

  2. Modeling Regional Seismic Waves from Underground Nuclear Explosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-05-15

    source outside the basin, small solid box beneath Ama. Little waveform distortion is observed along the path towsrds Pasadena (upper four trames) while...effects not accounted for in the wed and analytical solutions were derived for soluble interpretations given (Nuttli 1973, 1978, 1981; Herman & special...in a trnition region of COUPLING lengh L. The hybrid method used in the present study allows the the layering. Several types of solutions for models

  3. Efficient image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sekeh, M. A.; Maarof, M. A.; Rohani, M. F.; Mahdian, Babak

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 1 (2013), s. 73-84 ISSN 1742-2876 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Image forensic * Copy–paste forgery * Local block matching Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.986, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/ZOI/mahdian-efficient image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering.pdf

  4. Multisite bias correction of precipitation data from regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hnilica, Jan; Hanel, M.; Puš, V.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 6 (2017), s. 2934-2946 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA16-05665S Grant - others:Grantová agentura ČR - GA ČR(CZ) 16-16549S Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : bias correction * regional climate model * correlation * covariance * multivariate data * multisite correction * principal components * precipitation Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Climatic research Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016

  5. Cultural ecosystem services of mountain regions: Modelling the aesthetic value

    OpenAIRE

    Schirpke, Uta; Timmermann, Florian; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Tasser, Erich

    2016-01-01

    Mountain regions meet an increasing demand for pleasant landscapes, offering many cultural ecosystem services to both their residents and tourists. As a result of global change, land managers and policy makers are faced with changes to this landscape and need efficient evaluation techniques to assess cultural ecosystem services. This study provides a spatially explicit modelling approach to estimating aesthetic landscape values by relating spatial landscape patterns to human perceptions via a...

  6. Measuring China’s regional energy and carbon emission efficiency with DEA models: A survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng, Fanyi; Su, Bin; Thomson, Elspeth; Zhou, Dequn; Zhou, P.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • China’s regional efficiency studies using data envelopment analysis are reviewed. • The main features of 46 studies published in 2006–2015 are summarized. • Six models are compared from the perspective of methodology and empirical results. • Empirical study of China’s 30 regional efficiency assessment in 1995–2012 is presented. - Abstract: The use of data envelopment analysis (DEA) in China’s regional energy efficiency and carbon emission efficiency (EE&CE) assessment has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper conducted a comprehensive survey of empirical studies published in 2006–2015 on China’s regional EE&CE assessment using DEA-type models. The main features used in previous studies were identified, and then the methodological framework for deriving the EE&CE indicators as well as six widely used DEA models were introduced. These DEA models were compared and applied to measure China’s regional EE&CE in 30 provinces/regions between 1995 and 2012. The empirical study indicates that China’s regional EE&CE remained stable in the 9th Five Year Plan (1996–2000), then decreased in the 10th Five Year Plan (2000–2005), and increased a bit in the 11th Five Year Plan (2006–2010). The east region of China had the highest EE&CE while the central area had the lowest. By way of conclusion, some useful points relating to model selection are summarized from both methodological and empirical aspects.

  7. Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

  8. Simple Model for Identifying Critical Regions in Atrial Fibrillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Kim; Manani, Kishan A.; Peters, Nicholas S.

    2015-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common abnormal heart rhythm and the single biggest cause of stroke. Ablation, destroying regions of the atria, is applied largely empirically and can be curative but with a disappointing clinical success rate. We design a simple model of activation wave front propagation on an anisotropic structure mimicking the branching network of heart muscle cells. This integration of phenomenological dynamics and pertinent structure shows how AF emerges spontaneously when the transverse cell-to-cell coupling decreases, as occurs with age, beyond a threshold value. We identify critical regions responsible for the initiation and maintenance of AF, the ablation of which terminates AF. The simplicity of the model allows us to calculate analytically the risk of arrhythmia and express the threshold value of transversal cell-to-cell coupling as a function of the model parameters. This threshold value decreases with increasing refractory period by reducing the number of critical regions which can initiate and sustain microreentrant circuits. These biologically testable predictions might inform ablation therapies and arrhythmic risk assessment.

  9. Methane Fluxes in West Siberia: 3-D Regional Model Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jagovkina, S. V.; Karol, I. L.; Zubov, V. A.; Lagun, V. E.; Reshetnikov, A. I.; Rozanov, E. V.

    2001-01-01

    The West Siberian region is one of the main contributors of the atmospheric greenhouse gas methane due to the large areas of wetlands, rivers, lakes and numerous gas deposits situated there.But there are no reliable estimations of integral methane flux from this area into the atmosphere. For assessment of methane fluxes in West Siberia the specially constructed 3-D regional chemical transport model was applied. The 3-D distribution of methane is calculated on the basis of the current meteorological data fields(wind, temperature, geopotential) updated 4 times a day. The methane concentrations measured near the main gas fields of West Siberia in the summer season of 1999, were used for correction of methane flux intensity estimates obtained previously by comparison of measurements carried out in summer 1993 and 1996 with modelled methane mixing ratio distribution. This set of field and model experiments confirmed the preliminary conclusion about low leakage intensity: anthropogenic methane flux does not exceed 5-15% of total summer methane flux, estimated as 11-12 Mt CH 4 in summer from this region, in spite of the large areas of gas deposits located there

  10. ORGEST: Regional guidelines and silvicultural models for sustainable forest management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piqué, Míriam; Vericat, Pau; Beltrán, Mario

    2017-11-01

    Aim of the study: To develop regional guidelines for sustainable forest management. Area of the study: Forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods: The process of developing the forest management guidelines (FMG) started by establishing a thorough classification of forest types at stand level. This classification hinges on two attributes: tree species composition and site quality based on ecological variables, which together determine potential productivity. From there, the management guidelines establish certain objectives and silvicultural models for each forest type. The forest type classifications, like the silvicultural models, were produced using both existing and newly-built growth models based on data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and expert knowledge. The effort involved over 20 expert working groups in order to better integrate the expertise and vision of different sectorial agents. Main results: The FMG consist in quantitative silvicultural models that include typical silvicultural variables, technical descriptions of treatments and codes of good practice. Guidelines now cover almost all forest types in Catalonia (spanning up to 90% of the Catalan forest area). Different silvicultural models have been developed for pure and mixed stands, different site quality classes (2–3 classes per species), and even- and multi-aged stands. Research highlights: FMG: i) orient the management of private and public forests, (ii) provide a technical scaffold for efficient allocation/investment of public subsidies in forest management, and (iii) bridge forest planning instruments at regional (strategic-tactical) and stand (operational) level.

  11. ORGEST: Regional guidelines and silvicultural models for sustainable forest management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piqué, Míriam; Vericat, Pau; Beltrán, Mario

    2017-01-01

    Aim of the study: To develop regional guidelines for sustainable forest management. Area of the study: Forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods: The process of developing the forest management guidelines (FMG) started by establishing a thorough classification of forest types at stand level. This classification hinges on two attributes: tree species composition and site quality based on ecological variables, which together determine potential productivity. From there, the management guidelines establish certain objectives and silvicultural models for each forest type. The forest type classifications, like the silvicultural models, were produced using both existing and newly-built growth models based on data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and expert knowledge. The effort involved over 20 expert working groups in order to better integrate the expertise and vision of different sectorial agents. Main results: The FMG consist in quantitative silvicultural models that include typical silvicultural variables, technical descriptions of treatments and codes of good practice. Guidelines now cover almost all forest types in Catalonia (spanning up to 90% of the Catalan forest area). Different silvicultural models have been developed for pure and mixed stands, different site quality classes (2–3 classes per species), and even- and multi-aged stands. Research highlights: FMG: i) orient the management of private and public forests, (ii) provide a technical scaffold for efficient allocation/investment of public subsidies in forest management, and (iii) bridge forest planning instruments at regional (strategic-tactical) and stand (operational) level.

  12. Modelling regional trade of CO{sub 2} certificates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bueeler, B.; Bahn, O.; Kypreos, S. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    Many countries have developed energy models (such as MARKAL-MACRO---MM) to assess their energy policies, in particular concerning the curbing of their carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. To integrate national MM models, we propose a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO (3M) model. It enables one to study an international co-operation to curb jointly CO{sub 2} emissions through a market of emission permits. Furthermore, from a decision support perspective, the 3M model can be used to integrate aspects of ecological sustainability (in relation to global climate change issue), economic welfare, efficient resource use and technological innovation. To solve 3M, we follow two alternative mathematical methods. (author) 4 refs.

  13. Analysis of Regional Unemployment in Russia and Germany: Spatial-Econometric Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Vyacheslavovna Semerikova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The study was supported by the Government of the Russian Federation, grant No.11.G34.31.0059. This paper analyzes the regional unemployment in Russia and Germany in 2005-2010 and addresses issues of choosing the right specification of spatial-econometric models. The analysis based on data of 75 Russian and 370 German regions showed that for Germany the choice of the spatial weighting matrix has a more significant influence on the parameter estimates than for Russia. Presumably this is due to stronger linkages between regional labor markets in Germany compared to Russia. The authors also proposed an algorithm for choosing between spatial matrices and demonstrated the application of this algorithm on simulated Russian data. The authors found that 1 the deviation of the results from the true ones increases when the spatial dependence between regions is higher and 2 the matrix of inverse distances is more preferable than the boundary one for the analysis of regional unemployment in Russia (because of the lower value of the mean squared error. The authors are also planning to apply the proposed algorithm for simulated data of Germany. These results allow accounting the spatial dependence more correctly when modeling regional unemployment which is very important for making proper regional policy

  14. Improvement of Measurement and Evaluation of Regional Authorities Activity: Model and Statistical Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrova Elena Аleksandrovna

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Formation of strategy of long-term social and economic development is a basis for effective functioning of executive authorities and the assessment of its efficiency in general. Modern theories of assessment of public administration productivity are guided by the process approach when it is expedient to carry out the formation of business processes of regional executive authorities according to strategic indicators of territorial development. In this regard, there is a problem of modeling of interrelation of indicators of social and economic development of the region and quantitative indices of results of business processes of executive authorities. At the first stage of modeling, two main directions of strategic development, namely innovative and investment activity of regional economic systems are considered. In this regard, the work presents the results of modeling the interrelation between the indicators of regional social and economic development and innovative and investment activity. Therefore, for carrying out the analysis, the social and economic system of the region is presented in space of the main indicators of social and economic development of the territory and indicators of innovative and investment activity. The analysis is made on values of the indicators calculated for regions of the Russian Federation during 2000, 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2011. It was revealed that strategic indicators of innovative and investment activity have the most significant impact on key signs of social and economic development.

  15. Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

  16. Recent Vs. Historical Seismicity Analysis For Banat Seismic Region (Western Part Of Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oros Eugen

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The present day seismic activity from a region reflects the active tectonics and can confirm the seismic potential of the seismogenic sources as they are modelled using the historical seismicity. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the last decade seismicity recorded in the Banat Seismic Region (western part of Romania and the historical seismicity of the region (Mw≥4.0. Four significant earthquake sequences have been recently localized in the region, three of them nearby the city of Timisoara (January 2012 and March 2013 and the fourth within Hateg Basin, South Carpathians (October 2013. These sequences occurred within the epicentral areas of some strong historical earthquakes (Mw≥5.0. The main events had some macroseismic effects on people up to some few kilometers from the epicenters. Our results update the Romanian earthquakes catalogue and bring new information along the local seismic hazard sources models and seismotectonics.

  17. Tomographic models and seismotectonics of the Reggio Emilia region, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciaccio, M. G.; Chiarabba, C.

    2002-02-01

    The aim of this study is to define the Vp and Vp/Vs structure of the fault zone ruptured by the M L 5.1 earthquake of October 15, 1996 which occurred near Reggio Emilia (central-northern Italy). A 1-month-long seismic sequence followed the mainshock and occurred in a small region along the outer border of the northern Apenninic belt, at depth ranging between 10 and 17 km. P- and S-wave arrival times from 304 aftershocks recorded by two local dense seismic arrays installed in the epicentral region have been inverted to obtain one- and three-dimensional velocity models by using state of the art local earthquake tomographic techniques. Velocity models and aftershock relocation help us to infer the seismotectonic of the region. Earthquakes originated along a NW-dipping backthrust of a NE-trending main thrust, composing the western part of the broad Ferrara Arc. A main high Vp and high Vp/Vs region delineates a pop-up structure in the center of the area. The high Vp/Vs within the pop-up structure supports the presence of a zone with increased pore pressure. The hypocentral depth of both mainshock and aftershocks is greater than those usually found for the main seismogenic regions of the Apenninic belt. P-wave velocity values in the seismogenic area, obtained by tomography, are compatible with rocks of the Mesozoic cover and suggest that seismicity occurred within the Mesozoic units stack at present by compressional tectonics.

  18. Near-surface wind variability over the broader Adriatic region: insights from an ensemble of regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belušić, Andreina; Prtenjak, Maja Telišman; Güttler, Ivan; Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Schär, Christoph

    2018-06-01

    Over the past few decades the horizontal resolution of regional climate models (RCMs) has steadily increased, leading to a better representation of small-scale topographic features and more details in simulating dynamical aspects, especially in coastal regions and over complex terrain. Due to its complex terrain, the broader Adriatic region represents a major challenge to state-of-the-art RCMs in simulating local wind systems realistically. The objective of this study is to identify the added value in near-surface wind due to the refined grid spacing of RCMs. For this purpose, we use a multi-model ensemble composed of CORDEX regional climate simulations at 0.11° and 0.44° grid spacing, forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, a COSMO convection-parameterizing simulation at 0.11° and a COSMO convection-resolving simulation at 0.02° grid spacing. Surface station observations from this region and satellite QuikSCAT data over the Adriatic Sea have been compared against daily output obtained from the available simulations. Both day-to-day wind and its frequency distribution are examined. The results indicate that the 0.44° RCMs rarely outperform ERA-Interim reanalysis, while the performance of the high-resolution simulations surpasses that of ERA-Interim. We also disclose that refining the grid spacing to a few km is needed to properly capture the small-scale wind systems. Finally, we show that the simulations frequently yield the accurate angle of local wind regimes, such as for the Bora flow, but overestimate the associated wind magnitude. Finally, spectral analysis shows good agreement between measurements and simulations, indicating the correct temporal variability of the wind speed.

  19. Analysis of pilgrim dark energy models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharif, M.; Jawad, Abdul [University of the Punjab, Department of Mathematics, Lahore (Pakistan)

    2013-04-15

    The proposal of pilgrim dark energy is based on the idea that phantom dark energy possesses enough resistive force to preclude black hole formation. We work on this proposal by choosing an interacting framework with cold dark matter and three cutoffs such as Hubble as well as event horizon and conformal age of the universe. We present a graphical analysis and focus our study on the pilgrim dark energy as well as interacting parameters. It is found that these parameters play an effective role on the equation of state parameter for exploring the phantom region of the universe. We also make the analysis of {omega}-{omega}' and point out freezing region in the {omega}-{omega}' plane. Finally, it turns out that the {Lambda}CDM is achieved in the statefinders plane for all models. (orig.)

  20. Spatial data analysis and integration for regional-scale geothermal potential mapping, West Java, Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carranza, Emmanuel John M.; Barritt, Sally D. [Department of Earth Systems Analysis, International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Enschede (Netherlands); Wibowo, Hendro; Sumintadireja, Prihadi [Laboratory of Volcanology and Geothermal, Geology Department, Institute of Technology Bandung (ITB), Bandung (Indonesia)

    2008-06-15

    Conceptual modeling and predictive mapping of potential for geothermal resources at the regional-scale in West Java are supported by analysis of the spatial distribution of geothermal prospects and thermal springs, and their spatial associations with geologic features derived from publicly available regional-scale spatial data sets. Fry analysis shows that geothermal occurrences have regional-scale spatial distributions that are related to Quaternary volcanic centers and shallow earthquake epicenters. Spatial frequency distribution analysis shows that geothermal occurrences have strong positive spatial associations with Quaternary volcanic centers, Quaternary volcanic rocks, quasi-gravity lows, and NE-, NNW-, WNW-trending faults. These geological features, with their strong positive spatial associations with geothermal occurrences, constitute spatial recognition criteria of regional-scale geothermal potential in a study area. Application of data-driven evidential belief functions in GIS-based predictive mapping of regional-scale geothermal potential resulted in delineation of high potential zones occupying 25% of West Java, which is a substantial reduction of the search area for further exploration of geothermal resources. The predicted high potential zones delineate about 53-58% of the training geothermal areas and 94% of the validated geothermal occurrences. The results of this study demonstrate the value of regional-scale geothermal potential mapping in: (a) data-poor situations, such as West Java, and (b) regions with geotectonic environments similar to the study area. (author)

  1. Time series analysis of brain regional volume by MR image

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Mika; Tarusawa, Ayaka; Nihei, Mitsuyo; Fukami, Tadanori; Yuasa, Tetsuya; Wu, Jin; Ishiwata, Kiichi; Ishii, Kenji

    2010-01-01

    The present study proposed a methodology of time series analysis of volumes of frontal, parietal, temporal and occipital lobes and cerebellum because such volumetric reports along the process of individual's aging have been scarcely presented. Subjects analyzed were brain images of 2 healthy males and 18 females of av. age of 69.0 y, of which T1-weighted 3D SPGR (spoiled gradient recalled in the steady state) acquisitions with a GE SIGNA EXCITE HD 1.5T machine were conducted for 4 times in the time series of 42-50 months. The image size was 256 x 256 x (86-124) voxels with digitization level 16 bits. As the template for the regions, the standard gray matter atlas (icbn452 a tlas p robability g ray) and its labeled one (icbn.Labels), provided by UCLA Laboratory of Neuro Imaging, were used for individual's standardization. Segmentation, normalization and coregistration were performed with the MR imaging software SPM8 (Statistic Parametric Mapping 8). Volumes of regions were calculated as their voxel ratio to the whole brain voxel in percent. It was found that the regional volumes decreased with aging in all above lobes examined and cerebellum in average percent per year of -0.11, -0.07, -0.04, -0.02, and -0.03, respectively. The procedure for calculation of the regional volumes, which has been manually operated hitherto, can be automatically conducted for the individual brain using the standard atlases above. (T.T.)

  2. Analysis of Irradiation Holes of In-Core Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    In, Won-ho; Lee, Yong-sub; Kim, Tae-hwan; Lim, Kyoung-hwan; Ahn, Hyung-jin [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Test fuels and materials are irradiated in the in-core region in side of the chimney. The inner chimney is composed of In-Core and Out-Core regions. The In-Core region has 23 hexagonal vertical irradiation holes named from R01 to R20, CT, IR1 and IR2 and 8 cylindrical irradiation holes named from CAR1 to CAR4 and SOR1 to SOR4. The Out-Core region is composed of 8 cylindrical irradiation holes named from OR1 to OR8 which are installed near the inner shell of the reflector tank. HANARO is the multi-purpose research reactor which utilizes in-core irradiation holes, which is being used in various field. Over the past 7 years we have used CT 8 times, IR once, IR2 and OR3 twice, OR4 three times and OR5 ten times. These irradiation holes are used to perform an evaluation of the neutron irradiation properties and the tests were all completed and done successfully. HANARO has been used successfully, and it still will be used continuously in various fields such as nuclear in-pile tests, the production of radioisotopes, neutron transmutation doping, neutron activation analysis, neutron beam research, radiography, environmental science.

  3. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H Jagger

    Full Text Available Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA. A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  4. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagger, Thomas H; Elsner, James B; Widen, Holly M

    2015-01-01

    Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA). A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  5. ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINIAN REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Оlena Kozyreva

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available For a long period of time from 1991 to 2016, the socio-economic development of Ukrainian regions was characterized by enhanced differentiation and persistent inequality. Permanent preservation of the gap between the maximum and minimum values of indicators of socio-economic development of regions, in particular, the GRP per capita (8.8 times in 2014; disposable income of populace (10.3% in 2015; unemployment rate according to ILO methodology (in 2.8 times in January-September 2016, the volume of realized industrial products (38,9 times in January-September 2016 indicate the persistence of centre-periphery relations between regions in the economic space of the country. This situation reduces the overall efficiency of the economy, which is reflected by the decline of Ukraine’s position in the rankings of international organizations. According to the global competitiveness index in 2015, Ukraine has shifted from 76 to 79 place compared with 2014, according to the Index of Human Development, there was a slight increase from 83 to 81 place. To crown it all, taking into account the complexity of modern processes of Ukrainian regions’ socio-economic development, the total assessment of determination of Ukrainian regions’ levels of socio-economic development is required. The purpose of the article implies prompting the research results of determining the problem concerning the consolidated assessment of the socio-economic development of Ukrainian regions. Methodology. The article examines the processes of socio-economic development of Ukrainian regions and offers an analytical scheme of identification stage of problematic of the regions’ socioeconomic development. The article justifies a system of partial indicators and on its basis calculates the integral and generalizing indicators of economic and social development of Ukrainian regions. Analysis of recent researches and publications. Issues of spatial development of the country’s regions

  6. Reliability analysis and operator modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollnagel, Erik

    1996-01-01

    The paper considers the state of operator modelling in reliability analysis. Operator models are needed in reliability analysis because operators are needed in process control systems. HRA methods must therefore be able to account both for human performance variability and for the dynamics of the interaction. A selected set of first generation HRA approaches is briefly described in terms of the operator model they use, their classification principle, and the actual method they propose. In addition, two examples of second generation methods are also considered. It is concluded that first generation HRA methods generally have very simplistic operator models, either referring to the time-reliability relationship or to elementary information processing concepts. It is argued that second generation HRA methods must recognise that cognition is embedded in a context, and be able to account for that in the way human reliability is analysed and assessed

  7. Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

  8. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  9. Mesoscale modeling of smoke radiative feedback over the Sahel region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.; Wang, J.; Ichoku, C. M.; Ellison, L.; Zhang, F.; Yue, Y.

    2013-12-01

    This study employs satellite observations and a fully-coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model, Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to study the smoke radative feedback on surface energy budget, boundary layer processes, and atmospheric lapse rate in February 2008 over the Sahel region. The smoke emission inventories we use come from various sources, including but not limited to the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) developed by NRL and the Fire Energetic and Emissions Research (FEER) developed by NASA GSFC. Model performance is evaluated using numerous satellite and ground-based datasets: MODIS true color images, ground-based Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) measurements from AERONET, MODIS AOD retrievals, and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar data with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) atmospheric backscattering and extinction products. Specification of smoke injection height of 650 m in WRF-Chem yields aerosol vertical profiles that are most consistent with CALIOP observations of aerosol layer height. Statistically, 5% of the CALIPSO valid measurements of aerosols in February 2008 show aerosol layers either above the clouds or between the clouds, reinforcing the importance of the aerosol vertical distribution for quantifying aerosol impact on climate in the Sahel region. The results further show that the smoke radiative feedbacks are sensitive to assumptions of black carbon and organic carbon ratio in the particle emission inventory. Also investigated is the smoke semi-direct effect as a function of cloud fraction.

  10. Challenges of model transferability to data-scarce regions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, L. E.

    2013-12-01

    Developing the ability to globally predict the movement of water on the land surface at spatial scales from 1 to 5 km constitute one of grand challenges in land surface modelling. Copying with this grand challenge implies that land surface models (LSM) should be able to make reliable predictions across locations and/or scales other than those used for parameter estimation. In addition to that, data scarcity and quality impose further difficulties in attaining reliable predictions of water and energy fluxes at the scales of interest. Current computational limitations impose also seriously limitations to exhaustively investigate the parameter space of LSM over large domains (e.g. greater than half a million square kilometers). Addressing these challenges require holistic approaches that integrate the best techniques available for parameter estimation, field measurements and remotely sensed data at their native resolutions. An attempt to systematically address these issues is the multiscale parameterisation technique (MPR) that links high resolution land surface characteristics with effective model parameters. This technique requires a number of pedo-transfer functions and a much fewer global parameters (i.e. coefficients) to be inferred by calibration in gauged basins. The key advantage of this technique is the quasi-scale independence of the global parameters which enables to estimate global parameters at coarser spatial resolutions and then to transfer them to (ungauged) areas and scales of interest. In this study we show the ability of this technique to reproduce the observed water fluxes and states over a wide range of climate and land surface conditions ranging from humid to semiarid and from sparse to dense forested regions. Results of transferability of global model parameters in space (from humid to semi-arid basins) and across scales (from coarser to finer) clearly indicate the robustness of this technique. Simulations with coarse data sets (e.g. EOBS

  11. A regional model for sustainable biogas production. Case study: North Savo, Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huopana, T.; Niska, H.; Jaeskelaeinen, A.; Loonik, J.; Den Boer, E.; Song, H.; Thorin, E.

    2012-11-15

    sustainable waste-to-energy production, using the region of North Savo, Finland as a pilot region. The aim has been to produce region-specific information on environmental and economic performance of waste-to-energy production that support regional planners, authorities and industry to perform local and regional waste-to-energy related planning and strategic decision making in the target regions. Originally it was planned to include both biogas and recovered fuel (REF) in the regional modelling activities, but due to the current status of the partner regions, the activities were decided to concentrate on the modelling of biogas production. In addition, it turned out that extensive life cycle analysis based information about waste incineration are available, that itself already support on-going waste incineration plant projects in the regions. In this report, the main results of the regional modelling are presented and assessed in respect to the selected regional biogas CHP and vehicle fuel scenarios. Recommendations are given to solve the bottle necks and missing links in regional vehicle fuel and biogas CHP production utilization. In addition, recommendations on regional policies and strategies as well as conclusions for other Baltic Sea region countries are included.

  12. The Tax harmonization in open regionalism ; The European model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mouloud MELIKAOUI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the subject of alternative regionalism or open regionalism and reality within the multilateral trading system, based on growing liberalization of trade, and the problem of compatibility between them, as well as the limits of economic policy harmonization in the framework of Open regionalism, special tax harmonization, in the light of economic and tax disparities of the Member States, with an overview of the European tax harmonization and limits. The Study concluded the importance of tax harmonization as a tool by activation of the concept of open regionalism, through facilitating capitals flows and investments between member states and reduction of the négatives phenomena of tax. It recommended the need to emphasizing on the importance of gradually harmonization for tax policy, and expand the rule of tax treaties and exchange of tax information and experiences between countries, This is in light a holistic approach to other economic policies as a the exchange rate policy and monetary policy, just as is the case in the European model.

  13. Observational tests for H II region models - A 'champagne party'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alloin, D; Tenorio-Tagle, G

    1979-09-01

    Observations of several neighboring H II regions associated with a molecular cloud were performed in order to test the champagne model of H II region-molecular cloud interaction leading to the supersonic expansion of molecular cloud gas. Nine different positions in the Gum 61 nebula were observed using an image dissector scanner attached to a 3.6-m telescope, and it is found that the area corresponds to a low excitation, high density nebula, with electron densities ranging between 1400 and 2800/cu cm and larger along the boundary of the ionized gas. An observed increase in pressure and density located in an interior region of the nebula is interpreted in terms of an area between two rarefaction waves generated together with a strong isothermal shock, responsible for the champagne-like streaming, by a pressure discontinuity between the ionized molecular cloud in which star formation takes place and the intercloud gas. It is noted that a velocity field determination would provide the key in understanding the evolution of such a region.

  14. Covariances for neutron cross sections calculated using a regional model based on local-model fits to experimental data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D.L.; Guenther, P.T.

    1983-11-01

    We suggest a procedure for estimating uncertainties in neutron cross sections calculated with a nuclear model descriptive of a specific mass region. It applies standard error propagation techniques, using a model-parameter covariance matrix. Generally, available codes do not generate covariance information in conjunction with their fitting algorithms. Therefore, we resort to estimating a relative covariance matrix a posteriori from a statistical examination of the scatter of elemental parameter values about the regional representation. We numerically demonstrate our method by considering an optical-statistical model analysis of a body of total and elastic scattering data for the light fission-fragment mass region. In this example, strong uncertainty correlations emerge and they conspire to reduce estimated errors to some 50% of those obtained from a naive uncorrelated summation in quadrature. 37 references.

  15. Covariances for neutron cross sections calculated using a regional model based on local-model fits to experimental data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.; Guenther, P.T.

    1983-11-01

    We suggest a procedure for estimating uncertainties in neutron cross sections calculated with a nuclear model descriptive of a specific mass region. It applies standard error propagation techniques, using a model-parameter covariance matrix. Generally, available codes do not generate covariance information in conjunction with their fitting algorithms. Therefore, we resort to estimating a relative covariance matrix a posteriori from a statistical examination of the scatter of elemental parameter values about the regional representation. We numerically demonstrate our method by considering an optical-statistical model analysis of a body of total and elastic scattering data for the light fission-fragment mass region. In this example, strong uncertainty correlations emerge and they conspire to reduce estimated errors to some 50% of those obtained from a naive uncorrelated summation in quadrature. 37 references

  16. How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claas Teichmann

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Global and regional climate model simulations are frequently used for regional climate change assessments and in climate impact modeling studies. To reflect the inherent and methodological uncertainties in climate modeling, the assessment of regional climate change requires ensemble simulations from different global and regional climate model combinations. To interpret the spread of simulated results, it is useful to understand how the climate change signal is modified in the GCM-RCM modelmodelgeneral circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM chain. This kind of information can also be useful for impact modelers; for the process of experiment design and when interpreting model results. In this study, we investigate how the simulated historical and future climate of the Max-Planck-Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM is modified by dynamic downscaling with the regional model REMO in different world regions. The historical climate simulations for 1950–2005 are driven by observed anthropogenic forcing. The climate projections are driven by projected anthropogenic forcing according to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The global simulations are downscaled with REMO over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX domains Africa, Europe, South America and West Asia from 2006–2100. This unique set of simulations allows for climate type specific analysis across multiple world regions and for multi-scenarios. We used a classification of climate types by Köppen-Trewartha to define evaluation regions with certain climate conditions. A systematic comparison of near-surface temperature and precipitation simulated by the regional and the global model is done. In general, the historical time period is well represented by the GCM and the RCM. Some different biases occur in the RCM compared to the GCM as in the Amazon Basin, northern Africa and the West Asian domain. Both models project similar warming

  17. ANALYSIS OF CRISIS LEVEL IN REGIONS OF UKRAINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Abramova

    2017-12-01

    corresponds to the limits of the indicators from 0.75 to 0.5. The timely implementation of liquidation measures to neutralize the effects of the existing ones and prevent new crises will lead to the transition of the region into a zone of deep crisis. The zone of deep crisis is characterized by a partial destruction of the socio-economic system of the region. Out of such a situation requires the use of systemic measures of anti-crisis state and regional management with the assistance of foreign aid. A quantitative indicator of this zone, its threshold is numerical measure, which is limited to 75 percent deviation from the threshold level of the non-crisis zone, which corresponds to the limits of indicators from 0.5 to 0.25. The zone of bankruptcy involves the complete destruction of the region as a social and economic system. The reasons for such a situation are force majeure circumstances (wars, natural disasters, man-made disasters, etc.. Such a state of the region is characterized by the cessation of the work of enterprises and organizations, the economic and social devastation of the region, the intensification of migration processes. The solution to the current situation is targeted state crisis management. A numerical indicator of this zone, its threshold is considered numerical measurements, characterized by more than 75 percent deviation from the threshold level of the non-crisis zone, which corresponds to the limits of indicators from 0.25 to 0.0. Results of the survey showed that there was a moderate level of crisis according to economic parameters with a high risk of transition into a deep crisis in 14 of 27 regions as of 2015. Practical implications. Thus, the conducted analysis on the crisis of socio-economic development of Ukraine’s regions made it possible to detect the level of its depth according to social and economic parameters and to determine the weakest areas that need the most support and display in anti-crisis regional management. Value

  18. Synergies Between Grace and Regional Atmospheric Modeling Efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusche, J.; Springer, A.; Ohlwein, C.; Hartung, K.; Longuevergne, L.; Kollet, S. J.; Keune, J.; Dobslaw, H.; Forootan, E.; Eicker, A.

    2014-12-01

    In the meteorological community, efforts converge towards implementation of high-resolution (precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff data; confirming that the model does favorably at representing observations. We show that after GRACE-derived bias correction, basin-average hydrological conditions prior to 2002 can be reconstructed better than before. Next, comparing GRACE with CLM forced by EURO-CORDEX simulations allows identifying processes needing improvement in the model. Finally, we compare COSMO-EU atmospheric pressure, a proxy for mass corrections in satellite gravimetry, with ERA-Interim over Europe at timescales shorter/longer than 1 month, and spatial scales below/above ERA resolution. We find differences between regional and global model more pronounced at high frequencies, with magnitude at sub-grid scale and larger scale corresponding to 1-3 hPa (1-3 cm EWH); relevant for the assessment of post-GRACE concepts.

  19. Modelling the development of mixing height in near equatorial region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samah, A.A. [Univ. of Malaya, Air Pollution Research Unit, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

    1997-10-01

    Most current air pollution models were developed for mid-latitude conditions and as such many of the empirical parameters used were based on observations taken in the mid-latitude boundary layer which is physically different from that of the equatorial boundary layer. In the equatorial boundary layer the Coriolis parameter f is small or zero and moisture plays a more important role in the control of stability and the surface energy balance. Therefore air pollution models such as the OMLMULTI or the ADMS which were basically developed for mid-latitude conditions must be applied with some caution and would need some adaptation to properly simulate the properties of equatorial boundary layer. This work elucidates some of the problems of modelling the evolution of mixing height in the equatorial region. The mixing height estimates were compared with routine observations taken during a severe air pollution episodes in Malaysia. (au)

  20. High beta and second stability region transport and stability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    This document describes ideal and resistive MHD studies of high-beta plasmas and of the second stability region. Significant progress is reported on the resistive stability properties of high beta poloidal ''supershot'' discharges. For these studies initial profiles were taken from the TRANSP code which is used extensively to analyze experimental data. When an ad hoc method of removing the finite pressure stabilization of tearing modes is implemented it is shown that there is substantial agreement between MHD stability computation and experiment. In particular, the mode structures observed experimentally are consistent with the predictions of the resistive MHD model. We also report on resistive stability near the transition to the second region in TFTR. Tearing modes associated with a nearby infernal mode may explain the increase in MHD activity seen in high beta supershots and which impede the realization of Q∼1. We also report on a collaborative study with PPPL involving sawtooth stabilization with ICRF

  1. A new analysis of Mars "Special Regions": findings of the second MEPAG Special Regions Science Analysis Group (SR-SAG2).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummel, John D; Beaty, David W; Jones, Melissa A; Bakermans, Corien; Barlow, Nadine G; Boston, Penelope J; Chevrier, Vincent F; Clark, Benton C; de Vera, Jean-Pierre P; Gough, Raina V; Hallsworth, John E; Head, James W; Hipkin, Victoria J; Kieft, Thomas L; McEwen, Alfred S; Mellon, Michael T; Mikucki, Jill A; Nicholson, Wayne L; Omelon, Christopher R; Peterson, Ronald; Roden, Eric E; Sherwood Lollar, Barbara; Tanaka, Kenneth L; Viola, Donna; Wray, James J

    2014-11-01

    A committee of the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) has reviewed and updated the description of Special Regions on Mars as places where terrestrial organisms might replicate (per the COSPAR Planetary Protection Policy). This review and update was conducted by an international team (SR-SAG2) drawn from both the biological science and Mars exploration communities, focused on understanding when and where Special Regions could occur. The study applied recently available data about martian environments and about terrestrial organisms, building on a previous analysis of Mars Special Regions (2006) undertaken by a similar team. Since then, a new body of highly relevant information has been generated from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (launched in 2005) and Phoenix (2007) and data from Mars Express and the twin Mars Exploration Rovers (all 2003). Results have also been gleaned from the Mars Science Laboratory (launched in 2011). In addition to Mars data, there is a considerable body of new data regarding the known environmental limits to life on Earth-including the potential for terrestrial microbial life to survive and replicate under martian environmental conditions. The SR-SAG2 analysis has included an examination of new Mars models relevant to natural environmental variation in water activity and temperature; a review and reconsideration of the current parameters used to define Special Regions; and updated maps and descriptions of the martian environments recommended for treatment as "Uncertain" or "Special" as natural features or those potentially formed by the influence of future landed spacecraft. Significant changes in our knowledge of the capabilities of terrestrial organisms and the existence of possibly habitable martian environments have led to a new appreciation of where Mars Special Regions may be identified and protected. The SR-SAG also considered the impact of Special Regions on potential future human missions to Mars, both as locations of

  2. Regional Guanxi Culture and Entrepreneurs' Action Logic: A Multilevel Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xinchun Li; Wenping Ye; Pengxiang Zhang; Xiao Xiao

    2016-01-01

    At the beginning of the reform period,though informal institutions as a substitute for formal institutions efficiently promoted the development of private enterprises,it eroded and destroyed the authority and execution efficiency of formal institutions with guanxi behaviors and implicit rules.With the progress of marketization,how to restrain and guide the evolution of informal institutions is an unavoidable obstacle for the development of private enterprises-transforming their competitive strategy from “non-market” dominance to “market” dominance.Based on survey data of 2,628 private enterprises from 31 provinces in China,we establish a regional commercial culture index to empirically investigate the different influences of guanxi behavior between entrepreneurs of different ages and regional guanxi culture.The results show that,compared with entrepreneurs who started businesses in recent years,i.e.,after the 1990s,those who started businesses during the 1970s and the 1980s are more dependent on guanxi behaviors.Meanwhile,the higher the level of education,the less an entrepreneur is likely to be dependent on guanxi behaviors.However,compared with the constraint of the degree of regional marketization,regional guanxi culture promotes entrepreneurs' guanxi behaviors.Further research indicates that the more enterprises depart from regional guanxi culture,the stronger the ability to innovation.This study can not only enrich the institutional analysis of entrepreneurs' guanxi behaviors,but also provide a theoretical foundation for further expansion and deepening of reform.

  3. Analysis of time series for postal shipments in Regional VII East Java Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusrini, DE; Ulama, B. S. S.; Aridinanti, L.

    2018-03-01

    The change of number delivery goods through PT. Pos Regional VII East Java Indonesia indicates that the trend of increasing and decreasing the delivery of documents and non-documents in PT. Pos Regional VII East Java Indonesia is strongly influenced by conditions outside of PT. Pos Regional VII East Java Indonesia so that the prediction the number of document and non-documents requires a model that can accommodate it. Based on the time series plot monthly data fluctuations occur from 2013-2016 then the model is done using ARIMA or seasonal ARIMA and selected the best model based on the smallest AIC value. The results of data analysis about the number of shipments on each product sent through the Sub-Regional Postal Office VII East Java indicates that there are 5 post offices of 26 post offices entering the territory. The largest number of shipments is available on the PPB (Paket Pos Biasa is regular package shipment/non-document ) and SKH (Surat Kilat Khusus is Special Express Mail/document) products. The time series model generated is largely a Random walk model meaning that the number of shipment in the future is influenced by random effects that are difficult to predict. Some are AR and MA models, except for Express shipment products with Malang post office destination which has seasonal ARIMA model on lag 6 and 12. This means that the number of items in the following month is affected by the number of items in the previous 6 months.

  4. Self-Consistent Dynamical Model of the Broad Line Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Czerny, Bozena [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Li, Yan-Rong [Key Laboratory for Particle Astrophysics, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Sredzinska, Justyna; Hryniewicz, Krzysztof [Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Panda, Swayam [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Wildy, Conor [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Karas, Vladimir, E-mail: bcz@cft.edu.pl [Astronomical Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague (Czech Republic)

    2017-06-22

    We develop a self-consistent description of the Broad Line Region based on the concept of a failed wind powered by radiation pressure acting on a dusty accretion disk atmosphere in Keplerian motion. The material raised high above the disk is illuminated, dust evaporates, and the matter falls back toward the disk. This material is the source of emission lines. The model predicts the inner and outer radius of the region, the cloud dynamics under the dust radiation pressure and, subsequently, the gravitational field of the central black hole, which results in asymmetry between the rise and fall. Knowledge of the dynamics allows us to predict the shapes of the emission lines as functions of the basic parameters of an active nucleus: black hole mass, accretion rate, black hole spin (or accretion efficiency) and the viewing angle with respect to the symmetry axis. Here we show preliminary results based on analytical approximations to the cloud motion.

  5. Self-Consistent Dynamical Model of the Broad Line Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bozena Czerny

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We develop a self-consistent description of the Broad Line Region based on the concept of a failed wind powered by radiation pressure acting on a dusty accretion disk atmosphere in Keplerian motion. The material raised high above the disk is illuminated, dust evaporates, and the matter falls back toward the disk. This material is the source of emission lines. The model predicts the inner and outer radius of the region, the cloud dynamics under the dust radiation pressure and, subsequently, the gravitational field of the central black hole, which results in asymmetry between the rise and fall. Knowledge of the dynamics allows us to predict the shapes of the emission lines as functions of the basic parameters of an active nucleus: black hole mass, accretion rate, black hole spin (or accretion efficiency and the viewing angle with respect to the symmetry axis. Here we show preliminary results based on analytical approximations to the cloud motion.

  6. Panel estimation for urbanization, energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A regional analysis in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Chuanguo; Lin Yan

    2012-01-01

    As urbanization accelerates, urban areas play a leading role in energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in China. The existing research is extensively concerned with the relationships between urbanization, energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in recent years, but little attention has been paid to the regional differences. This paper is an analysis of the impact of urbanization on energy consumption and CO 2 emissions at the national and regional levels using the STIRPAT model and provincial panel data from 1995 to 2010 in China. The results showed that urbanization increases energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in China. The effects of urbanization on energy consumption vary across regions and decline continuously from the western region to the central and eastern regions. The impact of urbanization on CO 2 emissions in the central region is greater than that in the eastern region. The impact of urbanization on energy consumption is greater than the impact on CO 2 emissions in the eastern region. And some evidences support the argument of compact city theory. These results not only contribute to advancing the existing literature, but also merit particular attention from policy makers and urban planners in China. - Highlights: ► We analyze the impact of urbanization on energy use and CO 2 emissions in China. ► Urbanization increases energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in China. ► The effects of urbanization on energy use and CO 2 emissions vary across regions.

  7. Model reduction using a posteriori analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Whiteley, Jonathan P.

    2010-01-01

    Mathematical models in biology and physiology are often represented by large systems of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In many cases, an observed behaviour may be written as a linear functional of the solution of this system of equations. A technique is presented in this study for automatically identifying key terms in the system of equations that are responsible for a given linear functional of the solution. This technique is underpinned by ideas drawn from a posteriori error analysis. This concept has been used in finite element analysis to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where a fine computational mesh should be used to ensure accuracy of the numerical solution. We use this concept to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where accurate representation of the mathematical model is required for accuracy of the functional of interest. The technique presented is demonstrated by application to a model problem, and then to automatically deduce known results from a cell-level cardiac electrophysiology model. © 2010 Elsevier Inc.

  8. Model reduction using a posteriori analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Whiteley, Jonathan P.

    2010-05-01

    Mathematical models in biology and physiology are often represented by large systems of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In many cases, an observed behaviour may be written as a linear functional of the solution of this system of equations. A technique is presented in this study for automatically identifying key terms in the system of equations that are responsible for a given linear functional of the solution. This technique is underpinned by ideas drawn from a posteriori error analysis. This concept has been used in finite element analysis to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where a fine computational mesh should be used to ensure accuracy of the numerical solution. We use this concept to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where accurate representation of the mathematical model is required for accuracy of the functional of interest. The technique presented is demonstrated by application to a model problem, and then to automatically deduce known results from a cell-level cardiac electrophysiology model. © 2010 Elsevier Inc.

  9. A consumption-based, regional input-output analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and the carbon regional index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyd, Britta; Mangalagiu, Diana; Straatman, Bas

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a consumption-based method accounting for greenhouse gas emissions at regional level based on a multi-region input-output model. The method is based on regional consumption and includes imports and exports of emissions, factual emission developments, green investments as well...

  10. Regional climate projections for the MENA-CORDEX domain: analysis of projected temperature and precipitation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsler, Andreas; Weber, Torsten; Eggert, Bastian; Saeed, Fahad; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-05-01

    Within the CORDEX initiative a multi-model suite of regionalized climate change information will be made available for several regions of the world. The German Climate Service Center (CSC) is taking part in this initiative by applying the regional climate model REMO to downscale global climate projections of different coupled general circulation models (GCMs) for several CORDEX domains. Also for the MENA-CORDEX domain, a set of regional climate change projections has been established at the CSC by downscaling CMIP5 projections of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the regional model REMO for the time period from 1950 to 2100 to a horizontal resolution of 0.44 degree. In this study we investigate projected changes in future climate conditions over the domain towards the end of the 21st century. Focus in the analysis is given to projected changes in the temperature and rainfall characteristics and their differences for the two scenarios will be highlighted.

  11. Analysis of Entrepreneurship barriers in Moravia-Silesian Region by VRIO and Factor analysis application

    OpenAIRE

    Šebestová, Jarmila

    2007-01-01

    The small and medium sized entrepreneurship is often considered to be as a phenomenon of our times. Why many authors dedicated their work on this field? The main reason is that SME make influence on society life and contribute to economic development of the region, where they establish their business. The same situation is in Moravia-Silesian region, where the fac-tor analysis being applied. VRIO and Porter's analysis were used to interpret clearly research findings.

  12. Integration of Local Hydrology into Regional Hydrologic Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Zee, R. J.; Lal, W. A.

    2002-05-01

    South Florida hydrology is dominated by the Central and South Florida (C&SF) Project that is managed to provide flood protection, water supply and environmental protection. A complex network of levees canals and structures provide these services to the individual drainage basins. The landscape varies widely across the C&SF system, with corresponding differences in the way water is managed within each basin. Agricultural areas are managed for optimal crop production. Urban areas maximize flood protection while maintaining minimum water levels to protect adjacent wetlands and local water supplies. "Natural" areas flood and dry out in response to the temporal distribution of rainfall. The evaluation of planning, regulation and operational issues require access to a simulation model that captures the effects of both regional and local hydrology. The Regional Simulation Model (RSM) uses a "pseudo-cell" approach to integrate local hydrology within the context of a regional hydrologic system. A 2-dimensional triangulated mesh is used to represent the regional surface and ground water systems and a 1-dimensional canal network is superimposed onto this mesh. The movement of water is simulated using a finite volume formulation with a diffusive wave approximation. Each cell in the triangulated mesh has a "pseudo-cell" counterpart, which represents the same area as the cell, but it is conceptualized such that it simulates the localized hydrologic conditions Protocols have been established to provide an interface between a cell and its pseudo-cell counterpart. . A number of pseudo-cell types have already been developed and tested in the simulation of Water Conservation Area 1 and several have been proposed to deal with specific local issues in the Southwest Florida Feasibility Study. This presentation will provide an overview of the overall RSM design, describe the relationship between cells and pseudo-cells, and illustrate how pseudo-cells are be used to simulate agriculture

  13. Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice. At last, an integrated multilevel nested logit model structure system was built. The model system includes trip generation, destination choice, and mode-route choice based on multinomial logit model, and it achieved linkage and feedback of each part through logsum variable. This model was applied in Shenzhen intercity railway passenger demand forecast in 2010 as a case study. As a result, the forecast results were consistent with the actuality. The model's correctness and feasibility were verified.

  14. Regional model of EKC for air pollution: Evidence from the Republic of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Soonae; Lee, Youngmi

    2011-01-01

    This study aims to investigate a relationship between economic development and air pollution at the regional level, and further suggest energy policies for climate change mitigation. The present study examines an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis analyzing annual panel data of 16 metropolitan regions in Korea over a 16-year time period. The analysis results show that there is no one-dominant shape of EKC for SO 2 and NO 2 ; each region has its own EKC. That is, although we find the potential existence of U-shaped and N-shaped curves, the region-specific coefficients are enormously heterogeneous across regions. For CO, on the other hand, the random coefficient model shows that there is a dominant U-shaped curve across regions. In addition, energy consumption appears to be the most significant variable in explaining air pollution. Based on these results, we assert that environmental policy should consider the different characteristics of each region and type of pollutant. - Highlights: → Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypotheses are tested for air pollution in Korea. → A relationship of economic growth and pollution is analyzed at the regional level. → No-dominant EKC is found for SO 2 and NO 2 , but a dominant U-shaped curve for CO. → Environmental Policy should consider different features of each pollutant and region.

  15. Regional model of EKC for air pollution: Evidence from the Republic of Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Soonae, E-mail: psoonae@snu.ac.kr [Graduate School of Public Administration, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Youngmi, E-mail: youngmil@usc.edu [School of Policy, Planning, and Development, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089 (United States)

    2011-10-15

    This study aims to investigate a relationship between economic development and air pollution at the regional level, and further suggest energy policies for climate change mitigation. The present study examines an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis analyzing annual panel data of 16 metropolitan regions in Korea over a 16-year time period. The analysis results show that there is no one-dominant shape of EKC for SO{sub 2} and NO{sub 2}; each region has its own EKC. That is, although we find the potential existence of U-shaped and N-shaped curves, the region-specific coefficients are enormously heterogeneous across regions. For CO, on the other hand, the random coefficient model shows that there is a dominant U-shaped curve across regions. In addition, energy consumption appears to be the most significant variable in explaining air pollution. Based on these results, we assert that environmental policy should consider the different characteristics of each region and type of pollutant. - Highlights: > Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypotheses are tested for air pollution in Korea. > A relationship of economic growth and pollution is analyzed at the regional level. > No-dominant EKC is found for SO{sub 2} and NO{sub 2}, but a dominant U-shaped curve for CO. > Environmental Policy should consider different features of each pollutant and region.

  16. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  17. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  18. Emergy-Based Regional Socio-Economic Metabolism Analysis: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis and Decomposition Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Zilong Zhang; Xingpeng Chen; Peter Heck

    2014-01-01

    Integrated analysis on socio-economic metabolism could provide a basis for understanding and optimizing regional sustainability. The paper conducted socio-economic metabolism analysis by means of the emergy accounting method coupled with data envelopment analysis and decomposition analysis techniques to assess the sustainability of Qingyang city and its eight sub-region system, as well as to identify the major driving factors of performance change during 2000–2007, to serve as the basis for f...

  19. Regional collaborations and indigenous innovation capabilities in China: A multivariate method for the analysis of regional innovation systems

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, S.L.; Cacciolatti, L.; Lee, Soo Hee; Song, W.

    2014-01-01

    In this study we analyse the emerging patterns of regional collaboration for innovation projects in China, using official government statistics of 30 Chinese regions. We propose the use of Ordinal Multidimensional Scaling and Cluster analysis as a robust method to study regional innovation systems. Our results show that regional collaborations amongst organisations can be categorised by means of eight dimensions: public versus private organisational mindset; public versus private resources; i...

  20. The regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Pietikäinen

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes most of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM is coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. On the other hand, REMO-HAM does not include an online coupled aerosol-radiation nor a secondary organic aerosol module. In this work, we evaluate the model and compare the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites were chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50 × 50 km2 and 10 × 10 km2. Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM is in reasonable agreement with the measured values. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. Since we did not use activation nor kinetic nucleation for the boundary layer, the total number concentrations are somewhat underestimated. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we show that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

  1. Modelization of highly nonlinear waves in coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouin, Maïté; Ducrozet, Guillaume; Ferrant, Pierre

    2015-04-01

    The proposed work deals with the development of a highly non-linear model for water wave propagation in coastal regions. The accurate modelization of surface gravity waves is of major interest in ocean engineering, especially in the field of marine renewable energy. These marine structures are intended to be settled in coastal regions where the effect of variable bathymetry may be significant on local wave conditions. This study presents a numerical model for the wave propagation with complex bathymetry. It is based on High-Order Spectral (HOS) method, initially limited to the propagation of non-linear wave fields over flat bottom. Such a model has been developed and validated at the LHEEA Lab. (Ecole Centrale Nantes) over the past few years and the current developments will enlarge its application range. This new numerical model will keep the interesting numerical properties of the original pseudo-spectral approach (convergence, efficiency with the use of FFTs, …) and enable the possibility to propagate highly non-linear wave fields over long time and large distance. Different validations will be provided in addition to the presentation of the method. At first, Bragg reflection will be studied with the proposed approach. If the Bragg condition is satisfied, the reflected wave generated by a sinusoidal bottom patch should be amplified as a result of resonant quadratic interactions between incident wave and bottom. Comparisons will be provided with experiments and reference solutions. Then, the method will be used to consider the transformation of a non-linear monochromatic wave as it propagates up and over a submerged bar. As the waves travel up the front slope of the bar, it steepens and high harmonics are generated due to non-linear interactions. Comparisons with experimental data will be provided. The different test cases will assess the accuracy and efficiency of the method proposed.

  2. Regional groundwater modeling of the saturated zone in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahola, M.; Sagar, B.

    1992-10-01

    Results of groundwater modeling of the saturated zone in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain are presented. Both a regional (200 x 200 km) and subregional (50 x 50 km) model were used in the analyses. Simulations were conducted to determine the impact of various disruptive that might take place over the life span of a proposed Yucca Mountain geologic conditions repository on the groundwater flow field, as well as changes in the water-table elevations. These conditions included increases in precipitation and groundwater recharge within the regional model, changes in permeability of existing hydrogeologic barriers, a:nd the vertical intrusion of volcanic dikes at various orientations through the saturated zone. Based on the regional analysis, the rise in the water-table under Yucca Mountain due to various postulated conditions ranged from only a few meters to 275 meters. Results of the subregional model analysis, which was used to simulate intrusive dikes approximately 4 kilometers in length in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain, showed water-table rises ranging from a few meters to as much as 103 meters. Dikes oriented approximately north-south beneath Yucca Mountain produced the highest water-table rises. The conclusions drawn from this analysis are likely to change as more site-specific data become available and as the assumptions in the model are improved

  3. Portable real time analysis system for regional cerebral blood flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiernan, T.; Entine, G.; Stump, D.A.; Prough, D.S.

    1988-01-01

    A very portable, regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) analysis instrument system suitable for use in the operating theater during surgery is under development. Cadmium telluride (CdTe) solid state radiation detectors, an 8086 based data acquisition and communications module and a DEC Microvax computer are used so that the instrument is very compact, yet has the computational power to provide real time data analysis in the clinical environment. The instrument is currently being used at Bowman Gray School of Medicine to study rCBF during cardiopulmonary bypass surgery (CPB). Preliminary studies indicate that monitoring rCBF during this surgical procedure may provide insights into the mechanism that causes a significant fraction of these patients to suffer post operative neuropsychological deficit

  4. Modeling Regional Pollution Episodes With The Ctm Mocage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufour, A.; Brocheton, F.; Amodei, M.; Peuch, V.-H.

    Several regional ozone pollution episodes have been studied in the context of two recent extensive field campaigns in France: ESQUIF, in the Paris region and ES- COMPTE, in the vicinity of Marseilles. MOCAGE is an off-line multi-scale Chem- istry and Transport Model (CTM), driven by the operational numerical weather pre- diction models of Météo-France, ARPEGE and ALADIN. It covers from the global to the regional scale, by means of up to four levels of nested domains, and extends up to the middle stratosphere; thus, there is no need for external boundary conditions, neither on the horizontal or on the vertical. These original features allows to cover with MOCAGE a wide range of scientific applications, from routine air-pollution fore- casts to long-term simulations related to climate issues. The present study focuses on the simulation of regional-scale photo-oxidant episodes and on the impact on larger scales of the transport of ozone, of precursors and of reservoir species. The first ex- ample concerns a polluted episode of the ESQUIF campaign (IOP6). In addition to ground measurements, 8 flights have documented the situation, showing a diversity of chemical regimes. This variability is quite satisfactorily reproduced by the model. A special attention was also paid to vertical and horizontal exchanges, particularly to interactions between the boundary layer and the free troposphere. An interesting case of an ill-represented residual nocturnal plume in the simulation of ESQUIF IOP5 will be presented: during this IOP, the vertical structure of the lower troposphere was well characterized by four flights. Free troposphere concentrations of ozone appear to be well reproduced by the model, except for the intensity and vertical extent of a residual plume, which are overestimated. For the day after, in addition to a direct impact on surface concentrations, the simulated development of the boundary layer is found to be too slow ; both errors contribute to an

  5. Alcohol policy in a Russian region: a stakeholder analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil, Artyom; Polikina, Olga; Koroleva, Natalia; Leon, David A; McKee, Martin

    2010-10-01

    Male life expectancy in the Russian Federation, at 60 years, is the lowest in Europe. Several factors contribute to this situation, but hazardous consumption of alcohol is especially a key factor. We undertook a stakeholder analysis in a typical Russian region located on the western side of the Urals. Organizations with a stake in alcohol policy in the region were identified by snowball sampling and information on their position and influence on alcohol policy was elicited from interviews with key informants. Their interests and influence were mapped and their relationships plotted. Twenty-nine stakeholder organizations were identified and 43 interviews were conducted with their staff. The most influential actors were the Federal and regional governments, large beer producers and manufacturers of strong alcohols. However, the majority of organizations that might be expected to play a role in developing or implementing alcohol control policies were almost entirely disengaged and fragmented. No evidence was found of an existing or emerging multi-sectoral coalition for developing alcohol policy to improve health. Organizations that might be expected to contribute to tackling hazardous drinking had little understanding of what might be effective. While stakeholders with an interest in maintaining or increasing alcohol consumption are engaged and influential, those who might seek to reduce it either take a very narrow perspective or are disengaged from the policy agenda. There is a need to mobilize actors who might contribute to effective policies while challenging those who can block them.

  6. Modeling the Impact of Uganda's Safe Male Circumcision Program: Implications for Age and Regional Targeting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kripke, Katharine; Vazzano, Andrea; Kirungi, William; Musinguzi, Joshua; Opio, Alex; Ssempebwa, Rhobbinah; Nakawunde, Susan; Kyobutungi, Sheila; Akao, Juliet N; Magala, Fred; Mwidu, George; Castor, Delivette; Njeuhmeli, Emmanuel

    2016-01-01

    Uganda aims to provide safe male circumcision (SMC) to 80% of men ages 15-49 by 2016. To date, only 2 million men have received SMC of the 4.2 million men required. In response to age and regional trends in SMC uptake, the country sought to re-examine its targets with respect to age and subnational region, to assess the program's progress, and to refine the implementation approach. The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), was used in conjunction with incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM) to conduct this analysis. Population, births, deaths, and HIV incidence and prevalence were used to populate the model. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the 2011 AIDS Indicator Survey. Uganda can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising men ages 20-34. This group will also require the fewest circumcisions for each HIV infection averted. Focusing on men ages 10-19 will offer the greatest impact over a 15-year period, while focusing on men ages 15-34 offers the most cost-effective strategy over the same period. A regional analysis showed little variation in cost-effectiveness of scaling up SMC across eight regions. Scale-up is cost-saving in all regions. There is geographic variability in program progress, highlighting two regions with low baseline rates of circumcision where additional efforts will be needed. Focusing SMC efforts on specific age groups and regions may help to accelerate Uganda's SMC program progress. Policy makers in Uganda have already used model outputs in planning efforts, proposing males ages 10-34 as a priority group for SMC in the 2014 application to the Global Fund's new funding model. As scale-up continues, the country should also consider a greater effort to expand SMC in regions with low MC prevalence.

  7. Modeling the Impact of Uganda's Safe Male Circumcision Program: Implications for Age and Regional Targeting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharine Kripke

    Full Text Available Uganda aims to provide safe male circumcision (SMC to 80% of men ages 15-49 by 2016. To date, only 2 million men have received SMC of the 4.2 million men required. In response to age and regional trends in SMC uptake, the country sought to re-examine its targets with respect to age and subnational region, to assess the program's progress, and to refine the implementation approach.The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0, was used in conjunction with incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM to conduct this analysis. Population, births, deaths, and HIV incidence and prevalence were used to populate the model. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the 2011 AIDS Indicator Survey. Uganda can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising men ages 20-34. This group will also require the fewest circumcisions for each HIV infection averted. Focusing on men ages 10-19 will offer the greatest impact over a 15-year period, while focusing on men ages 15-34 offers the most cost-effective strategy over the same period. A regional analysis showed little variation in cost-effectiveness of scaling up SMC across eight regions. Scale-up is cost-saving in all regions. There is geographic variability in program progress, highlighting two regions with low baseline rates of circumcision where additional efforts will be needed.Focusing SMC efforts on specific age groups and regions may help to accelerate Uganda's SMC program progress. Policy makers in Uganda have already used model outputs in planning efforts, proposing males ages 10-34 as a priority group for SMC in the 2014 application to the Global Fund's new funding model. As scale-up continues, the country should also consider a greater effort to expand SMC in regions with low MC prevalence.

  8. Regional sensitivity analysis using revised mean and variance ratio functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei, Pengfei; Lu, Zhenzhou; Ruan, Wenbin; Song, Jingwen

    2014-01-01

    The variance ratio function, derived from the contribution to sample variance (CSV) plot, is a regional sensitivity index for studying how much the output deviates from the original mean of model output when the distribution range of one input is reduced and to measure the contribution of different distribution ranges of each input to the variance of model output. In this paper, the revised mean and variance ratio functions are developed for quantifying the actual change of the model output mean and variance, respectively, when one reduces the range of one input. The connection between the revised variance ratio function and the original one is derived and discussed. It is shown that compared with the classical variance ratio function, the revised one is more suitable to the evaluation of model output variance due to reduced ranges of model inputs. A Monte Carlo procedure, which needs only a set of samples for implementing it, is developed for efficiently computing the revised mean and variance ratio functions. The revised mean and variance ratio functions are compared with the classical ones by using the Ishigami function. At last, they are applied to a planar 10-bar structure

  9. Application of Monte Carlo filtering method in regional sensitivity analysis of AASHTOWare Pavement ME design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhong Wu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Since AASHTO released the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG for public review in 2004, many highway research agencies have performed sensitivity analyses using the prototype MEPDG design software. The information provided by the sensitivity analysis is essential for design engineers to better understand the MEPDG design models and to identify important input parameters for pavement design. In literature, different studies have been carried out based on either local or global sensitivity analysis methods, and sensitivity indices have been proposed for ranking the importance of the input parameters. In this paper, a regional sensitivity analysis method, Monte Carlo filtering (MCF, is presented. The MCF method maintains many advantages of the global sensitivity analysis, while focusing on the regional sensitivity of the MEPDG model near the design criteria rather than the entire problem domain. It is shown that the information obtained from the MCF method is more helpful and accurate in guiding design engineers in pavement design practices. To demonstrate the proposed regional sensitivity method, a typical three-layer flexible pavement structure was analyzed at input level 3. A detailed procedure to generate Monte Carlo runs using the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software was provided. The results in the example show that the sensitivity ranking of the input parameters in this study reasonably matches with that in a previous study under a global sensitivity analysis. Based on the analysis results, the strengths, practical issues, and applications of the MCF method were further discussed.

  10. Regional air-quality and acid-deposition modeling and the role for visualization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novak, J.H.; Dennis, R.L.

    1991-11-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses air quality and deposition models to advance the scientific understanding of basic physical and chemical processes related to air pollution, and to assess the effectiveness of alternative emissions control strategies. The paper provides a brief technical description of several regional scale atmospheric models, their current use within EPA, and related data analysis issues. Spatial analysis is a key component in the evaluation and interpretation of the model predictions. Thus, the authors highlight several types of analysis enhancements focusing on those related to issues of spatial scale, user access to models and analysis tools, and consolidation of air quality modeling and graphical analysis capabilities. They discuss their initial experience with a Geographical Information System (GIS) pilot project that generated the initial concepts for the design of an integrated modeling and analysis environment. And finally, they present current plans to evolve this modeling/visualization approach to a distributed, heterogeneous computing environment which enables any research scientist or policy analyst to use high performance visualization techniques from his/her desktop

  11. Analysis of pumping-induced unsaturated regions beneath aperennial river

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Su, G.W.; Jasperse, J.; Seymour, D.; Constantz, J.; Zhou, Q.

    2007-05-15

    The presence of an unsaturated region beneath a streambedduring groundwater pumping near streams reduces the pumping capacity whenit reaches the well screens, changes flow paths, and alters the types ofbiological transformations in the streambed sediments. Athree-dimensional, multi-phase flow model of two horizontal collectorwells along the Russian River near Forestville, California was developedto investigate the impact of varying the ratio of the aquifer tostreambed permeability on (1) the formation of an unsaturated regionbeneath the stream, (2) the pumping capacity, (3) stream-water fluxesthrough the streambed, and (4) stream-water travel times to the collectorwells. The aquifer to streambed permeability ratio at which theunsaturated region was initially observed ranged from 10 to 100. The sizeof the unsaturated region beneath the streambed increased as the aquiferto streambed permeability ratio increased. The simulations also indicatedthat for a particular aquifer permeability, decreasing the streambedpermeability by only a factor of 2-3 from the permeability wheredesaturation initially occurred resulted in reducing the pumpingcapacity. In some cases, the stream-water fluxes increased as thestreambed permeability decreased. However, the stream water residencetimes increased and the fraction of stream water that reached that thewells decreased as the streambed permeability decreased, indicating thata higher streambed flux does not necessarily correlate to greaterrecharge of stream water around the wells.

  12. Preliminary evaluation of techniques for transforming regional climate model output to the potential repository site in support of Yucca Mountain future climate synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Behl, Y.K.

    1995-06-01

    The report describes a preliminary evaluation of models for transforming regional climate model output from a regional to a local scale for the Yucca Mountain area. Evaluation and analysis of both empirical and numerical modeling are discussed which is aimed at providing site-specific, climate-based information for use by interfacing activities. Two semiempirical approaches are recommended for further analysis

  13. Modeling the wind-fields of accidental releases with an operational regional forecast model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albritton, J.R.; Lee, R.L.; Sugiyama, G.

    1995-01-01

    The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) is an operational emergency preparedness and response organization supported primarily by the Departments of Energy and Defense. ARAC can provide real-time assessments of atmospheric releases of radioactive materials at any location in the world. ARAC uses robust three-dimensional atmospheric transport and dispersion models, extensive geophysical and dose-factor databases, meteorological data-acquisition systems, and an experienced staff. Although it was originally conceived and developed as an emergency response and assessment service for nuclear accidents, the ARAC system has been adapted to also simulate non-radiological hazardous releases. For example, in 1991 ARAC responded to three major events: the oil fires in Kuwait, the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, and the herbicide spill into the upper Sacramento River in California. ARAC's operational simulation system, includes two three-dimensional finite-difference models: a diagnostic wind-field scheme, and a Lagrangian particle-in-cell transport and dispersion scheme. The meteorological component of ARAC's real-time response system employs models using real-time data from all available stations near the accident site to generate a wind-field for input to the transport and dispersion model. Here we report on simulation studies of past and potential release sites to show that even in the absence of local meteorological observational data, readily available gridded analysis and forecast data and a prognostic model, the Navy Operational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System, applied at an appropriate grid resolution can successfully simulate complex local flows

  14. [Microbiological analysis of terrestrial biotopes of the Antarctic region].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tashirev, A B; Romanovskaia, V A; Rokitko, P V; Shilin, S O; Chernaia, N A; Tashireva, A A

    2010-01-01

    Microbiological analysis has been made of 120 samples from biotopes of the western coast of the Antarctic peninsula (Rasmussen cope, Tuxen cope, Waugh mountain), Argentine archipelago islands (Galindez, Skua, Corner, Barchans, Irizar, Uruguay, Cluls, Three Little Pigs, King-George), as well as neighbouring islands (Petermann--on the north, a group of Jalour islands--on the east, Berthelot--on the south-east); and more remote islands (Darboux, Lippmann, Booth). It was found out that the total number of chemoorganotrophic aerobic microorganisms was 10(6) - 10(8) cells/g of soil, that was by 2-3 orders lower than in the regions with temperate climate. One can observe a tendency of decreasing the quantity of chemoorganotrophic microorganisms in the Antartic biotopes (cells/g of a sample) in the following order: soil (1 x 10(7) - 8 x 10(8)), underground part of moss (1 x 10(6) - 5 x 10(7)), grass Deschampsia antarctica (10(6) - 10(8), slit of fresh-water reservoir (10(5) - 10(7)), ground part of moss (10(3) - 10(6)), lichens (10(3) - 10(6)). Representatives of several phylogenetic lines: Proteobacteria (genera Pseudomonas, Methylobacterium, Enterobacter), Firmicutes (genera Bacillus, Staphylococcus), Actinobacteria (genera Brevibacterium, Actinomyces, Streptomyces) have been found in the Antarctic samples. As a rule, genera of bacteria found in the Antarctic Region are widely distributed in different regions of the Earth with temperate climate. Microorganisms similar to the species Exophiala nigra (Issatsch.) Haats et de Hoog 1999, which was first detected 100 years ago by Academician B.L. Isachenko in the Arctic region water, were also isolated from biofilms on vertical rocks of the Galindez Island as well as from the soil of the Irizar Island.

  15. Implementation of a parallel version of a regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerstengarbe, F.W. [ed.; Kuecken, M. [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Schaettler, U. [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main (Germany). Geschaeftsbereich Forschung und Entwicklung

    1997-10-01

    A regional climate model developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meterology and the German Climate Computing Centre in Hamburg based on the `Europa` and `Deutschland` models of the German Weather Service has been parallelized and implemented on the IBM RS/6000 SP computer system of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research including parallel input/output processing, the explicit Eulerian time-step, the semi-implicit corrections, the normal-mode initialization and the physical parameterizations of the German Weather Service. The implementation utilizes Fortran 90 and the Message Passing Interface. The parallelization strategy used is a 2D domain decomposition. This report describes the parallelization strategy, the parallel I/O organization, the influence of different domain decomposition approaches for static and dynamic load imbalances and first numerical results. (orig.)

  16. Regional Persistent Organic Pollutants' Environmental Impact Assessment and Control Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgis Staniskis

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The sources of formation, environmental distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs are increasingly seen as topics to be addressed and solved at the global scale. Therefore, there are already two international agreements concerning persistent organic pollutants: the Protocol of 1998 to the 1979 Convention on the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Persistent Organic Pollutants (Aarhus Protocol; and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. For the assessment of environmental pollution of POPs, for the risk assessment, for the evaluation of new pollutants as potential candidates to be included in the POPs list of the Stokholmo or/and Aarhus Protocol, a set of different models are developed or under development. Multimedia models help describe and understand environmental processes leading to global contamination through POPs and actual risk to the environment and human health. However, there is a lack of the tools based on a systematic and integrated approach to POPs management difficulties in the region.

  17. Interactive Visual Analysis within Dynamic Ocean Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butkiewicz, T.

    2012-12-01

    The many observation and simulation based ocean models available today can provide crucial insights for all fields of marine research and can serve as valuable references when planning data collection missions. However, the increasing size and complexity of these models makes leveraging their contents difficult for end users. Through a combination of data visualization techniques, interactive analysis tools, and new hardware technologies, the data within these models can be made more accessible to domain scientists. We present an interactive system that supports exploratory visual analysis within large-scale ocean flow models. The currents and eddies within the models are illustrated using effective, particle-based flow visualization techniques. Stereoscopic displays and rendering methods are employed to ensure that the user can correctly perceive the complex 3D structures of depth-dependent flow patterns. Interactive analysis tools are provided which allow the user to experiment through the introduction of their customizable virtual dye particles into the models to explore regions of interest. A multi-touch interface provides natural, efficient interaction, with custom multi-touch gestures simplifying the otherwise challenging tasks of navigating and positioning tools within a 3D environment. We demonstrate the potential applications of our visual analysis environment with two examples of real-world significance: Firstly, an example of using customized particles with physics-based behaviors to simulate pollutant release scenarios, including predicting the oil plume path for the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill disaster. Secondly, an interactive tool for plotting and revising proposed autonomous underwater vehicle mission pathlines with respect to the surrounding flow patterns predicted by the model; as these survey vessels have extremely limited energy budgets, designing more efficient paths allows for greater survey areas.

  18. Curie Depth Analysis of the Salton Sea Region, Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickus, Kevin; Hussein, Musa

    2016-02-01

    Aeromagnetic data were analyzed to determine the bottom of magnetic bodies that might be related to the Curie point depth (CPD) by 2D spectral and 3D inversion methods within the Salton Trough and the surrounding region in southern California. The bottom of the magnetic bodies for 55 × 55 km windows varied in depth between 11 and 23 km in depth using 2D spectral methods. Since the 55 × 55 km square window may include both shallow and deep source, a 3D inversion method was used to provide better resolution of the bottom of the magnetic bodies. The 3D models indicate the depth to the bottom of the magnetic bodies varied between 5 and 23 km. Even though both methods produce