WorldWideScience

Sample records for regional modelling analysis

  1. MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL BOUNDARY SYSTEM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Guangle; WANG Huanchen

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, the problems of modeling and analyzing the system with change able boundary are researched. First, a kind of expanding system is set up, in which the changeable boundary is dealt with as a regional boundary. Then some relative models are developed to describe the regional boundary system. Next, the transition or the driftage of bifurcation points in the system is discussed. A fascinating case is studied in which two or more than two classes of chaotic attractive points coexist together or exist alternatively in the same system. Lastly, an effective new method of chaos avoidance for the system is put forward.

  2. Comparison of Statistical Models for Regional Crop Trial Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Qun-yuan; KONG Fan-ling

    2002-01-01

    Based on the review and comparison of main statistical analysis models for estimating varietyenvironment cell means in regional crop trials, a new statistical model, LR-PCA composite model was proposed, and the predictive precision of these models were compared by cross validation of an example data. Results showed that the order of model precision was LR-PCA model > AMMI model > PCA model > Treatment Means (TM) model > Linear Regression (LR) model > Additive Main Effects ANOVA model. The precision gain factor of LR-PCA model was 1.55, increasing by 8.4% compared with AMMI.

  3. Turbulent convection model in the overshooting region: II. Theoretical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, S Q

    2012-01-01

    Turbulent convection models are thought to be good tools to deal with the convective overshooting in the stellar interior. However, they are too complex to be applied in calculations of stellar structure and evolution. In order to understand the physical processes of the convective overshooting and to simplify the application of turbulent convection models, a semi-analytic solution is necessary. We obtain the approximate solution and asymptotic solution of the turbulent convection model in the overshooting region, and find some important properties of the convective overshooting: I. The overshooting region can be partitioned into three parts: a thin region just outside the convective boundary with high efficiency of turbulent heat transfer, a power law dissipation region of turbulent kinetic energy in the middle, and a thermal dissipation area with rapidly decreasing turbulent kinetic energy. The decaying indices of the turbulent correlations $k$, $\\bar{u_{r}'T'}$, and $\\bar{T'T'}$ are only determined by the ...

  4. Regionalization of subsurface stormflow parameters of hydrologic models: Derivation from regional analysis of streamflow recession curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ye, Sheng; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Ali, Melkamu; Leng, Guoyong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Wang, Shaowen; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2014-07-21

    Subsurface stormflow is an important component of the rainfall–runoff response, especially in steep terrain. Its contribution to total runoff is, however, poorly represented in the current generation of land surface models. The lack of physical basis of these common parameterizations precludes a priori estimation of the stormflow (i.e. without calibration), which is a major drawback for prediction in ungauged basins, or for use in global land surface models. This paper is aimed at deriving regionalized parameterizations of the storage–discharge relationship relating to subsurface stormflow from a top–down empirical data analysis of streamflow recession curves extracted from 50 eastern United States catchments. Detailed regression analyses were performed between parameters of the empirical storage–discharge relationships and the controlling climate, soil and topographic characteristics. The regression analyses performed on empirical recession curves at catchment scale indicated that the coefficient of the power-law form storage–discharge relationship is closely related to the catchment hydrologic characteristics, which is consistent with the hydraulic theory derived mainly at the hillslope scale. As for the exponent, besides the role of field scale soil hydraulic properties as suggested by hydraulic theory, it is found to be more strongly affected by climate (aridity) at the catchment scale. At a fundamental level these results point to the need for more detailed exploration of the co-dependence of soil, vegetation and topography with climate.

  5. Regional Dynamic Simulation Modeling and Analysis of Integrated Energy Futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MALCZYNSKI, LEONARD A.; BEYELER, WALTER E.; CONRAD, STEPHEN H.; HARRIS, DAVID B; REXROTH, PAUL E.; BAKER, ARNOLD B.

    2002-11-01

    The Global Energy Futures Model (GEFM) is a demand-based, gross domestic product (GDP)-driven, dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of energy, nuclear-materials storage and disposition, environmental effluents from fossil and non fossil energy and global nuclear-materials management. Based entirely on public source data, it links oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy dynamically to greenhouse-gas emissions and 12 other measures of environmental impact. It includes historical data from 1990 to 2000, is benchmarked to the DOE/EIA/IEO 2001 [5] Reference Case for 2000 to 2020, and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. The GEFM is globally integrated, and breaks out five regions of the world: United States of America (USA), the Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations excluding the USA (other industrialized countries), and the rest of the world (ROW) (essentially the developing world). The GEFM allows the user to examine a very wide range of ''what if'' scenarios through 2050 and to view the potential effects across widely dispersed, but interrelated areas. The authors believe that this high-level learning tool will help to stimulate public policy debate on energy, environment, economic and national security issues.

  6. Entrance and exit region friction factor models for annular seal analysis. Ph.D. Thesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elrod, David Alan

    1988-01-01

    The Mach number definition and boundary conditions in Nelson's nominally-centered, annular gas seal analysis are revised. A method is described for determining the wall shear stress characteristics of an annular gas seal experimentally. Two friction factor models are developed for annular seal analysis; one model is based on flat-plate flow theory; the other uses empirical entrance and exit region friction factors. The friction factor predictions of the models are compared to experimental results. Each friction model is used in an annular gas seal analysis. The seal characteristics predicted by the two seal analyses are compared to experimental results and to the predictions of Nelson's analysis. The comparisons are for smooth-rotor seals with smooth and honeycomb stators. The comparisons show that the analysis which uses empirical entrance and exit region shear stress models predicts the static and stability characteristics of annular gas seals better than the other analyses. The analyses predict direct stiffness poorly.

  7. Analysis of regional compliance in a porcine model of acute lung injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czaplik, Michael; Biener, Ingeborg; Dembinski, Rolf; Pelosi, Paolo; Soodt, Thomas; Schroeder, Wolfgang; Leonhardt, Steffen; Marx, Gernot; Rossaint, Rolf; Bickenbach, Johannes

    2012-10-15

    Lung protective ventilation in acute lung injury (ALI) focuses on using low tidal volumes and adequate levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP). Identifying optimal pressure is difficult because pressure-volume (PV) relations differ regionally. Precise analysis demands local measurements of pressures and related alveolar morphologies. In a porcine model of surfactant depletion (n=24), we combined measuring static pressures with endoscopic microscopy and electrical impedance tomography (EIT) to examine regional PV loops and morphologic heterogeneities between healthy (control group; CON) and ALI lungs ventilated with low (LVT) or high tidal volumes (HVT). Quantification included indices for microscopy (Volume Air Index (VAI), Heterogeneity and Circularity Index), EIT analysis and calculation of regional compliances due to generated PV loops. We found that: (1) VAI decreased in lower lobe after ALI, (2) electrical impedance decreased in dorsal regions and (3) PV loops differed regionally. Further studies should prove the potentials of these techniques on individual respiratory settings and clinical outcome.

  8. High beta and second region stability analysis and ICRF edge modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1989-01-01

    This report describes the tasks accomplished under Department of Energy contract [number sign]DE-FG02-86ER53236 in modeling the edge plasma-antenna interaction that occurs during Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequency (ICRF) heating. This work has resulted in the development of several codes which determine kinetic and fluid modifications to the edge plasma. When used in combination, these code predict the level of impurity generation observed in experiments on the experiments on the Princeton Large Torus. In addition, these models suggest improvements to the design of ICRF antennas. Also described is progress made on high beta and second region analysis. Code development for a comprehensive infernal mode analysis code is nearing completion. A method has been developed for parameterizing the second region of stability and is applied to circular cross section tokamas. Various studies for high beta experimental devices such as PBX-M and DIII-D have been carried out and are reported on.

  9. Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Donald R.

    2001-01-01

    This research was directed to the development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. An additional objective was to investigate the accuracy and theoretical limits of global climate predictability which are imposed by the inherent limitations of simulating trace constituent transport and the hydrologic processes of condensation, precipitation and cloud life cycles.

  10. Spatial analysis of future East Asian seasonal temperature using two regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yura; Jun, Mikyoung; Min, Seung-Ki; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2016-05-01

    CORDEX-East Asia, a branch of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) initiative, provides high-resolution climate simulations for the domain covering East Asia. This study analyzes temperature data from regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the CORDEX - East Asia region, accounting for the spatial dependence structure of the data. In particular, we assess similarities and dissimilarities of the outputs from two RCMs, HadGEM3-RA and RegCM4, over the region and over time. A Bayesian functional analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is used to simultaneously model the temperature patterns from the two RCMs for the current and future climate. We exploit nonstationary spatial models to handle the spatial dependence structure of the temperature variable, which depends heavily on latitude and altitude. For a seasonal comparison, we examine changes in the winter temperature in addition to the summer temperature data. We find that the temperature increase projected by RegCM4 tends to be smaller than the projection of HadGEM3-RA for summers, and that the future warming projected by HadGEM3-RA tends to be weaker for winters. Also, the results show that there will be a warming of 1-3°C over the region in 45 years. More specifically, the warming pattern clearly depends on the latitude, with greater temperature increases in higher latitude areas, which implies that warming may be more severe in the northern part of the domain.

  11. HRM: HII Region Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Trey V.; Kepley, Amanda K.; Balser, Dana S.

    2017-07-01

    HII Region Models fits HII region models to observed radio recombination line and radio continuum data. The algorithm includes the calculations of departure coefficients to correct for non-LTE effects. HII Region Models has been used to model star formation in the nucleus of IC 342.

  12. Identification of model structure for aquatic ecosystems using regionalized sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osidele, O O; Beck, M B

    2001-01-01

    The Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis (RSA) was developed in 1978, for identifying critical unknown processes in poorly defined systems, thus directing the focus of further scientific investigations. Here, we demonstrate its application to model structure identification, by ranking the constituent hypotheses and identifying the critical elements for progressive revision of the model. Our case study is Lake Oglethorpe--a small monomictic impoundment in South-eastern Georgia, USA. Recent studies indicate that the warm temperate regional climate affords an extended growing season--typically from March to October--which promotes bacterial productivity in the lake. The result is a summer food web dominated by microbial processes, in contrast to the conventional phytoplankton-dominated food chains typically observed in the cold temperate lakes of Europe and North America. Starting with a simple phytoplankton-based food web model and a qualitative definition of system behaviour, we use the RSA procedure to establish the critical role of bacteria-mediated decomposition in Lake Oglethorpe, thus justifying the inclusion of microbial processes. Further analysis reveals the importance of size-dependent selective consumption of phytoplankton and bacteria. Finally, we discuss important practical implications of this novel application of the RSA regarding sampling efficiency and statistical robustness.

  13. Regional policy models for forest biodiversity analysis: lessons from coastal Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, K Norman; Duncan, Sally; Spies, Thomas A

    2007-01-01

    The crisis in the early 1990s over conservation of biodiversity in the forests of the Pacific Northwest caused an upheaval in forest policies for public and private landowners. These events led to the development of the Coastal Landscape Assessment and Modeling Study (CLAMS) for the Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon, a province containing over two million hectares of forest with a complex mixture of public and private ownership. Over a decade, CLAMS scientists developed regional data bases and tools to enable assessments of the implications of current policies for biodiversity and have begun using these data and tools to test ideas for solving policy problems. We summarize here four main lessons from our work: (1) Regional ecosystem perspectives, while rewarding, are difficult to achieve. Helping policy makers and the public understand biodiversity policies for an entire province can assist in developing more reasoned policies. However, this result is difficult to achieve because needed scientific building blocks generally do not exist, few policy institutions address regional cross-ownership issues, people can find it difficult to take a regional view, and the appropriate region for analysis changes with the policy problem. (2) Interest in environmental policy analysis may come as much from a pursuit of power as a pursuit of understanding. Biodiversity policy analyses are often viewed as weapons in an ongoing political battle. Also, results that might destabilize existing policies generally will not be well received by those in power. (3) The relationship of regional analyses to civic processes remains challenging and unsettled. Communication between citizens and scientists takes real effort. Also, collaborative processes both inspire and constrain regional policy analysis, and scientific work often proceeds at a different pace than these processes. In the end, CLAMS's most important effect on the civic dialogue may be to change how people think about

  14. Yield gap analysis of cumin in nine regions of Khorasan provinces using modelling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    behnam kamkar

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available There are three hierarchical steps to fill the yield gaps in agricultural systems. These steps are determination of potential yield, yield gaps and system optimization to fill yield gaps. In this study a simple mechanistic model was developed and tested to determine potential yield and yield gaps of Cumin (Cuminum cyminum in nine regions of Khorasan provinces (including Bojnourd, Qaeen, Mashhad, Neishabour, Sabzewar, Gonabad, Ferdous, Kashmar and Birjand. Collected data of related year from 228 fields were used to calculate yield gaps. Results indicated variable potential yields in different climatic conditions (the areas with cooler climate and higher radiation had higher potential yields. Also, yield gaps varied considerably between regions (from 2.42 ton.ha-1 in Bojnourd to 0.68 ton.ha-1 in Sabzewar. The highest value for potential yield belonged to Bojnourd (3.7 ton.ha-1. The collected data from studied fields and sensitivity analysis on sowing date (based on common sowing dates range showed that inappropriate sowing dates was one of the most important yield reducing factors in all regions. Results revealed that if the yield gaps can be filled based on appropriate management option, yield can be increased by two to three folds in some regions.

  15. Near-Field Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Metropolitan Tehran Using Region-Specific Directivity Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazdani, Azad; Nicknam, Ahmad; Dadras, Ehsan Yousefi; Eftekhari, Seyed Nasrollah

    2017-01-01

    Ground motions are affected by directivity effects at near-fault regions which result in low-frequency cycle pulses at the beginning of the velocity time history. The directivity features of near-fault ground motions can lead to significant increase in the risk of earthquake-induced damage on engineering structures. The ordinary probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) does not take into account such effects; recent studies have thus proposed new frameworks to incorporate directivity effects in PSHA. The objective of this study is to develop the seismic hazard mapping of Tehran City according to near-fault PSHA procedure for different return periods. To this end, the directivity models required in the modified PSHA were developed based on a database of the simulated ground motions. The simulated database was used in this study because there are no recorded near-fault data in the region to derive purely empirically based pulse prediction models. The results show that the directivity effects can significantly affect the estimate of regional seismic hazard.

  16. An entrance region friction factor model applied to annular seal analysis - Theory versus experiment for smooth and honeycomb seals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elrod, D.; Nelson, C.; Childs, D.

    1989-01-01

    A friction factor model is developed for the entrance-region of a duct. The model is used in an annular gas seal analysis similar to Nelson's (1984). Predictions of the analysis are compared to experimental results for a smooth-stator/smooth-rotor seal and three honeycomb-stator/smooth-rotor seals. The model predicts a leakage and direct damping well. The model overpredicts the dependence of cross-coupled stiffness on fluid prerotation. The model predicts direct stiffness poorly.

  17. Developing Flexible, Integrated Hydrologic Modeling Systems for Multiscale Analysis in the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.; Sharma, A.; Byun, K.; Hanson, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Physically based hydrologic modeling of surface and groundwater resources that can be flexibly and efficiently applied to support water resources policy/planning/management decisions at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales are greatly needed in the Midwest, where stakeholder access to such tools is currently a fundamental barrier to basic climate change assessment and adaptation efforts, and also the co-production of useful products to support detailed decision making. Based on earlier pilot studies in the Pacific Northwest Region, we are currently assembling a suite of end-to-end tools and resources to support various kinds of water resources planning and management applications across the region. One of the key aspects of these integrated tools is that the user community can access gridded products at any point along the end-to-end chain of models, looking backwards in time about 100 years (1915-2015), and forwards in time about 85 years using CMIP5 climate model projections. The integrated model is composed of historical and projected future meteorological data based on station observations and statistical and dynamically downscaled climate model output respectively. These gridded meteorological data sets serve as forcing data for the macro-scale VIC hydrologic model implemented over the Midwest at 1/16 degree resolution. High-resolution climate model (4km WRF) output provides inputs for the analyses of urban impacts, hydrologic extremes, agricultural impacts, and impacts to the Great Lakes. Groundwater recharge estimated by the surface water model provides input data for fine-scale and macro-scale groundwater models needed for specific applications. To highlight the multi-scale use of the integrated models in support of co-production of scientific information for decision making, we briefly describe three current case studies addressing different spatial scales of analysis: 1) Effects of climate change on the water balance of the Great Lakes, 2) Future

  18. Regional probabilistic nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment by integration of mathematical modelling land GIS-analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rigina, O. [Univ. of Copenhagen, Inst. of Geography, Copenhagen (Denmark); Baklanov, A. [Danish Meteorological Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2002-04-01

    The Kola Peninsula, Russian Arctic exceeds all other regions in the world in the number of nuclear reactors. The study was aimed at estimating possible radiation risks to the population in the Nordic countries in case of a severe accident in the Kola Peninsula. A new approach based on probabilistic analysis of modelled possible pathways of radionuclide transport and precipitation was developed. For the general population, Finland is at most risk with respect to the Kola NPP, because of: high population density or proximity to the radiation-risk sites and relatively high probability of an airflow trajectory there, and precipitation. After considering the critical group, northern counties in Norway, Finland and Sweden appear to be most vulnerable. (au)

  19. Modeling Regional Dynamics of Human-Rangifer Systems: a Framework for Comparative Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Berman

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Theoretical models of interaction between wild and domestic reindeer (Rangifer tarandus; caribou in North America can help explain observed social-ecological dynamics of arctic hunting and husbandry systems. Different modes of hunting and husbandry incorporate strategies to mitigate effects of differing patterns of environmental uncertainty. Simulations of simple models of harvested wild and domestic herds with density-dependent recruitment show that random environmental variation produces cycles and crashes in populations that would quickly stabilize at a steady state with nonrandom parameters. Different husbandry goals lead to radically different long-term domestic herd sizes. Wild and domestic herds are typically ecological competitors but social complements. Hypothesized differences in ecological competition and diverse human livelihoods are explored in dynamic social-ecological models in which domestic herds competitively interact with wild herds. These models generate a framework for considering issues in the evolution of Human-Rangifer Systems, such as state-subsidized herding and the use of domestic herds for transportation support in hunting systems. Issues considered include the role of geographic factors, markets for Rangifer products, state-subsidized herding, effects of changes in husbandry goals on fate of wild herds, and how environmental shocks, herd population cycles, and policy shifts might lead to system state changes. The models also suggest speculation on the role of geographic factors in the failure of reindeer husbandry to take hold in the North American Arctic. The analysis concludes with suggested empirical strategies for estimating parameters of the model for use in comparative studies across regions of the Arctic.

  20. Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing input-output and computable general equilibrium models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koks, Elco E.; Carrera, Lorenzo; Jonkeren, Olaf; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Husby, Trond G.; Thissen, Mark; Standardi, Gabriele; Mysiak, Jaroslav

    2016-08-01

    A variety of models have been applied to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are input-output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing number of scholars have developed hybrid approaches: one that combines both or either of them in combination with noneconomic methods. While both IO and CGE models are widely used, they are mainly compared on theoretical grounds. Few studies have compared disaster impacts of different model types in a systematic way and for the same geographical area, using similar input data. Such a comparison is valuable from both a scientific and policy perspective as the magnitude and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses are born likely to vary with the chosen modelling approach (IO, CGE, or hybrid). Hence, regional disaster impact loss estimates resulting from a range of models facilitate better decisions and policy making. Therefore, this study analyses the economic consequences for a specific case study, using three regional disaster impact models: two hybrid IO models and a CGE model. The case study concerns two flood scenarios in the Po River basin in Italy. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of 7 between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact, comprising all Italian regions, is negative in all models though.

  1. Energy Production and Regional Economic Growth in China: A More Comprehensive Analysis Using a Panel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaobin Liu

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available China has witnessed a fast economic growth in the recent two decades. However, the heavy energy exploitation seems to show a negative relation to regional economic growth. Thus, the issue is whether the energy production is a curse or blessing for the regional economic growth in China. The present study deploys a comprehensive approach to rigorously prove the validity of a proposed panel data model that includes a second generation panel unit root test and panel cointegration and a spatial panel model. The results from the second generation panel unit root test and panel cointegration allowing for cross-sectional dependences show the differenced series are stationary and there exists a cointegration relationship among these variables for all sub-regions. The results from the spatial panel data model support the conjecture of the spatial dependent and show that there is a “resource curse” only for the Western region and Central region in China.

  2. EURO-CORDEX regional climate model analysis for the Greater Alpine Region: Performance and expected future change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smiatek, Gerhard; Kunstmann, Harald; Senatore, Alfonso

    2016-07-01

    Simulations from 13 highly resolved regional climate models run within the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment initiative at 0.11° resolution with boundary forcings from five different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global models are employed to derive future climate change signal for the Greater Alpine Region (GAR) and four smaller investigation areas. Evaluation statistics include mean temperature and precipitation, frequency of days with precipitation over 1 mm and over 15 mm, 90% quantile of the frequency distribution, and maximum number of consecutive dry days. The evaluation for the period from 1971 to 2000 indicates that the models reproduce spatial seasonal precipitation patterns. In general, the simulations underestimate the seasonal mean temperature and overestimate the mean precipitation values. In GAR the ensemble seasonal mean temperature bias ranges from -0.8 to -1.9°C. The bias in precipitation varies between +14.8% in summer and +41.6% in the winter season. Larger errors are found for other statistics and in the investigated regions. In general, no significant gains in the quality of reproduction of the observed precipitation and temperature statistics compared to previous experiments can be identified. The temperature calculations for 2071-2100 related to the period from 1971 to 2000 in the GAR area show ensemble mean increases in the seasonal mean 2 m temperature of 2.5°C in fall and winter, 2.4°C in summer, and 1.9°C in spring. In the same area, precipitation is simulated to increase up to 12.3% in winter and 5.7% in spring. Only minor changes of the ensemble mean are predicted with +2.3% in fall and -1.7% in summer.

  3. A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE USE OF TRACTORS ON MODEL FARMS PRODUCING ENERGY CROPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benedykt Pepliński

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The potential area of energy crops in Poland is estimated at 1.0–4.5 million ha. The decrease in the prices of energy reduces the high pressure to cut the costs of biomass production. The aim of this study is an analysis of the use of tractors on model farms producing energy crops, which have different areas, intensity of production and quality of soils from different regions of Poland. The use of tractors increased along with the farm area, the soil quality and production intensity. The use of tractors on the smallest farms is low, so they should buy old tractors. A large share of crops for biogas leads to the situation where it takes 20–30 years of work for tractors to achieve full wear of 12,000 hours on farms with 130 ha of farmland, whereas it takes only 8–14 years on farms with 600 and 1500 ha of farmland. Regional differences in the use of tractors increased along with the farm area from 4.7–5.7% on the smallest farms to 10.1–14.8% on the largest farms.

  4. Introduction of hydrogen in the Norwegian energy system. NorWays - Regional model analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun; Espegren, Kari Aamodt

    2008-12-15

    The overall aim of the NorWays project has been to provide decision support for the introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier in the Norwegian energy system. The NorWays project is a research project funded by the Research Council of Norway. An important task has been to develop alternative scenarios and identifying market segments and regions of the Norwegian energy system where hydrogen may play a significant role. The main scenarios in the project have been: Reference: Based on the assumptions of World Energy Outlook with no new transport technologies; HyWays: Basic assumptions with technology costs (H{sub 2}) based on results from the HyWays project; No tax: No taxes on transport energy ('revenue neutral'); CO{sub 2} reduction: Reduced CO{sub 2} emissions by 75% in 2050. Three regional models have been developed and used to analyse the introduction of hydrogen as energy carrier in competition with other alternatives such as natural gas, electricity, district heating and bio fuels.The focus of the analysis has been on the transportation sector. (Author)

  5. Regional aquifer geochemistry below the Boom Clay (NE-Belgium): data analysis and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandersteen, Katrijn; Leterme, Bertrand

    2014-05-01

    For more than 35 years, SCK•CEN has been investigating the possibility of high-level and/or long-lived radioactive waste disposal in the Boom Clay in NE-Belgium, including the study of the regional hydrogeology and geochemistry of the aquifer systems surrounding the Boom Clay. This study presents the analysis and modelling of groundwater geochemistry in the confined aquifers below the Boom Clay in NE-Belgium. This so-called deep aquifer system includes, with increasing depth, parts of the Oligocene Aquifer System, The Bartoon Aquitard System and the Ledo-Paniselian-Brusselian Aquifer System. At the end of the Neogene period, during which several marine transgressions and regressions took place, the sea definitely drew back after having deposited shallow marine and estuarine sands and some clay. The original seawater in the pores of the sediments was in first instance gradually diluted as the aquifer was flushed by recharge (fresh) water. Afterwards, water-rock interactions, including cation exchange, began to play a role in the deep aquifer system. This led to changes in groundwater composition over time. Geochemical data (major ions, stable isotopes, radioactive isotopes, dissolved gases) have been collected at a regional scale from the piezometric network in the deep aquifer system. Several measurement campaigns have been performed between 1980 and 2010. Groundwater is currently mainly of Na-HCO3 to Na-Cl type water, and because of the low groundwater velocity, re-equilibration with the host formations generally occurs. The main geochemical indicators (salinity, stable isotopes) point to a mixture between saline water (to the NW) and fresh recharge water (from SE). SE-NW gradients of ion concentrations are observed and can be explained in agreement with the pattern of natural groundwater flow. Building on the concepts emerging from the geochemical data analysis and recent groundwater modelling, a geochemical model was developed in PhreeqC, using geochemical and

  6. ANALYSIS OF MERCURY IN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LAKES: EVALUATION OF THE REGIONAL MERCURY CYCLING MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    An evaluation of the Regional Mercury Cycling Model (R-MCM, a steady-state fate and transport model used to simulate mercury concentrations in lakes) is presented based on its application to a series of 91 lakes in Vermont and New Hampshire. Visual and statistical analyses are pr...

  7. A Development of Nonstationary Regional Frequency Analysis Model with Large-scale Climate Information: Its Application to Korean Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jin-Young; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Hung-Soo

    2015-04-01

    The existing regional frequency analysis has disadvantages in that it is difficult to consider geographical characteristics in estimating areal rainfall. In this regard, this study aims to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model based nonstationary regional frequency analysis in that spatial patterns of the design rainfall with geographical information (e.g. latitude, longitude and altitude) are explicitly incorporated. This study assumes that the parameters of Gumbel (or GEV distribution) are a function of geographical characteristics within a general linear regression framework. Posterior distribution of the regression parameters are estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, and the identified functional relationship is used to spatially interpolate the parameters of the distributions by using digital elevation models (DEM) as inputs. The proposed model is applied to derive design rainfalls over the entire Han-river watershed. It was found that the proposed Bayesian regional frequency analysis model showed similar results compared to L-moment based regional frequency analysis. In addition, the model showed an advantage in terms of quantifying uncertainty of the design rainfall and estimating the area rainfall considering geographical information. Finally, comprehensive discussion on design rainfall in the context of nonstationary will be presented. KEYWORDS: Regional frequency analysis, Nonstationary, Spatial information, Bayesian Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  8. Sub-regional linear programming models in land use analysis: a case study of the Neguev settlement, Costa Rica.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schipper, R.A.; Stoorvogel, J.J.; Jansen, D.M.

    1995-01-01

    The paper deals with linear programming as a tool for land use analysis at the sub-regional level. A linear programming model of a case study area, the Neguev settlement in the Atlantic zone of Costa Rica, is presented. The matrix of the model includes five submatrices each encompassing a different

  9. Regional soil moisture simulation for Shaanxi Province using SWAT model validation and trend analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The soil moisture in Shaanxi Province,a region with complex topography,is simulated using the distributed hydrological model Soil Water Assessment Tool(SWAT).Comparison and contrast of modeled and observed soil moisture show that the SWAT model can reasonably simulate the long-term trend in soil moisture and the spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture in the region.Comparisons to NCEP/NCAR and ERA40 reanalysis of soil moisture show that the trend of variability in soil moisture simulated by SWAT is more consistent with the observed.SWAT model results suggested that high soil moisture in surface soil layers appears in the southern Shaanxi with high vegetation cover,and the Qinling mountainous region with frequent orographic precipitation.In deeper soil layers,high soil moisture appears in the river basins and plains.The regional soil moisture showed a generally decreasing trend on all soil layers from 1951 to 2004,with a stronger and significant decreasing trend in deeper soil layers,especially in the northern parts of the province.

  10. Development of Hierarchical Bayesian Model Based on Regional Frequency Analysis and Its Application to Estimate Areal Rainfall in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.; Kwon, H. H.

    2014-12-01

    The existing regional frequency analysis has disadvantages in that it is difficult to consider geographical characteristics in estimating areal rainfall. In this regard, This study aims to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model based regional frequency analysis in that spatial patterns of the design rainfall with geographical information are explicitly incorporated. This study assumes that the parameters of Gumbel distribution are a function of geographical characteristics (e.g. altitude, latitude and longitude) within a general linear regression framework. Posterior distributions of the regression parameters are estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Calro (MCMC) method, and the identified functional relationship is used to spatially interpolate the parameters of the Gumbel distribution by using digital elevation models (DEM) as inputs. The proposed model is applied to derive design rainfalls over the entire Han-river watershed. It was found that the proposed Bayesian regional frequency analysis model showed similar results compared to L-moment based regional frequency analysis. In addition, the model showed an advantage in terms of quantifying uncertainty of the design rainfall and estimating the area rainfall considering geographical information. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B079364-01) from Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  11. A Bayesian SIRS model for the analysis of respiratory syncytial virus in the region of Valencia, Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corberán-Vallet, Ana; Santonja, Francisco J

    2014-09-01

    We present a Bayesian stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model in discrete time to understand respiratory syncytial virus dynamics in the region of Valencia, Spain. A SIRS model based on ordinary differential equations has also been proposed to describe RSV dynamics in the region of Valencia. However, this continuous-time deterministic model is not suitable when the initial number of infected individuals is small. Stochastic epidemic models based on a probability of disease transmission provide a more natural description of the spread of infectious diseases. In addition, by allowing the transmission rate to vary stochastically over time, the proposed model provides an improved description of RSV dynamics. The Bayesian analysis of the model allows us to calculate both the posterior distribution of the model parameters and the posterior predictive distribution, which facilitates the computation of point forecasts and prediction intervals for future observations. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  12. Analysis of an extremely dense regional fog event in Eastern China using a mesoscale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Chune; Yang, Jun; Qiu, Mingyan; Zhang, Hao; Zhang, Su; Li, Zihua

    2010-03-01

    An unusually dense regional advection-radiation fog event over Anhui and the surrounding provinces in eastern China during Dec. 25-27, 2006, was investigated. At its mature stage, the fog covered most Anhui and parts of the surrounding provinces, reducing visibility to 100 m or less. It lasted more than 36 consecutive hours in some places. A mesoscale meteorological model (MM5), together with back-trajectory analysis, was used to investigate this fog event. The observations from a field station as well as hundreds of routine stations, along with two sets of visibility computing methods, were used to quantitatively and objectively validate the MM5 simulated liquid water content (LWC) and visibility. The verifications demonstrate that MM5 has a better fog predictability for the first day compared to the second day forecast, and better fog predictability compared to dense fog predictability with regard to the probability of detection (POD) and the threat score (TS). The new visibility algorithm that uses both LWC and number density of fog droplets significantly outperforms the conventional LWC-only based one in the fog prediction in terms of the POD score, especially for dense fog prediction. The objective verification in this work is the first time conducted for MM5 fog prediction, with which we can better understand the performance of simulated temporal and spatial fog coverage. The back-trajectory and sensitivity experiments confirm that subsidence and the steady warm and moist advections from southeast and southwest maintained the dense fog while the northwesterly dry wind resulted in dissipation of the fog.

  13. Target Region Location Based on Texture Analysis and Active Contour Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Zhaoxuan; BAI Zhuofu; WU Jiapeng; CHEN Yang

    2009-01-01

    Traditional texture region location methods with Gabor features are often limited in the selection of Gabor filters and fail to deal with the target which contains both texture and non-texture parts.Thus,to solve this problem,a two-step new model was proposed.In the first step,the original features extracted by Gabor filters are applied to training a self-organizing map (SOM) neural network and a novel merging scheme is presented to achieve the clustering.A back propagation (BP) network is used as a classifier to locate the target region approximately.In the second step,Chan-Vese active contour model is applied to detecting the boundary of the target region accurately and morphological processing is used to create a connected domain whose convex hull can cover the target region.In the experiments,the proposed method is demonstrated accurate and robust in localizing target on texture database and practical barcode location system as well.

  14. A novel substance flow analysis model for analysing multi-year phosphorus flow at the regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Rubel Biswas; Moore, Graham A; Weatherley, Anthony J; Arora, Meenakshi

    2016-12-01

    Achieving sustainable management of phosphorus (P) is crucial for both global food security and global environmental protection. In order to formulate informed policy measures to overcome existing barriers of achieving sustainable P management, there is need for a sound understanding of the nature and magnitude of P flow through various systems at different geographical and temporal scales. So far, there is a limited understanding on the nature and magnitude of P flow over multiple years at the regional scale. In this study, we have developed a novel substance flow analysis (SFA) model in the MATLAB/Simulink® software platform that can be effectively utilized to analyse the nature and magnitude of multi-year P flow at the regional scale. The model is inclusive of all P flows and storage relating to all key systems, subsystems, processes or components, and the associated interactions of P flow required to represent a typical P flow system at the regional scale. In an annual time step, this model can analyse P flow and storage over as many as years required at a time, and therefore, can indicate the trends and changes in P flow and storage over many years, which is not offered by the existing regional scale SFA models of P. The model is flexible enough to allow any modification or the inclusion of any degree of complexity, and therefore, can be utilized for analysing P flow in any region around the world. The application of the model in the case of Gippsland region, Australia has revealed that the model generates essential information about the nature and magnitude of P flow at the regional scale which can be utilized for making improved management decisions towards attaining P sustainability. A systematic reliability check on the findings of model application also indicates that the model produces reliable results.

  15. Sensitivity analysis in the context of regional safety modeling: identifying and assessing the modifiable areal unit problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Pengpeng; Huang, Helai; Dong, Ni; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2014-09-01

    A wide array of spatial units has been explored in current regional safety analysis. Since traffic crashes exhibit extreme spatiotemporal heterogeneity which has rarely been a consideration in partitioning these zoning systems, research based on these areal units may be subjected to the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). This study attempted to conduct a sensitivity analysis to quantitatively investigate the MAUP effect in the context of regional safety modeling. The emerging regionalization method-RECDAP (regionalization with dynamically constrained agglomerative clustering and partitioning) was employed to aggregate 738 traffic analysis zones in the county of Hillsborough to 14 zoning schemes at an incremental step-size of 50 zones based on spatial homogeneity of crash risk. At each level of aggregation, a Bayesian Poisson lognormal model and a Bayesian spatial model were calibrated to explain observed variations in total/severe crash counts given a number of zone-level factors. Results revealed that as the number of zones increases, the spatial autocorrelation of crash data increases. The Bayesian spatial model outperforms the Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model in accurately accounting for spatial autocorrelation effects, unbiased parameter estimates, and model performance, especially in cases with higher disaggregated levels. Zoning schemes with higher number of zones tend to have increasing number of significant variables, more stable coefficient estimation, smaller standard error, whereas worse model performance. The variables of population density and median household income show consistently significant effects on crash risk and are robust to variation in data aggregation. The MAUP effects may be significantly reduced if we just maintain at about 50% of the original number of zones (350 or larger). The present study highlights MAUP that is generally ignored by transportation safety analysts, and provides insights into the nature of parameter sensitivity to

  16. Downscaling Statistical Model Techniques for Climate Change Analysis Applied to the Amazon Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Mendes

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon is an area covered predominantly by dense tropical rainforest with relatively small inclusions of several other types of vegetation. In the last decades, scientific research has suggested a strong link between the health of the Amazon and the integrity of the global climate: tropical forests and woodlands (e.g., savannas exchange vast amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are thought to be important in controlling local and regional climates. Consider the importance of the Amazon biome to the global climate changes impacts and the role of the protected area in the conservation of biodiversity and state-of-art of downscaling model techniques based on ANN Calibrate and run a downscaling model technique based on the Artificial Neural Network (ANN that is applied to the Amazon region in order to obtain regional and local climate predicted data (e.g., precipitation. Considering the importance of the Amazon biome to the global climate changes impacts and the state-of-art of downscaling techniques for climate models, the shower of this work is presented as follows: the use of ANNs good similarity with the observation in the cities of Belém and Manaus, with correlations of approximately 88.9% and 91.3%, respectively, and spatial distribution, especially in the correction process, representing a good fit.

  17. Analysis and Modelling of Extreme Wind Speed Distributions in Complex Mountainous Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laib, Mohamed; Kanevski, Mikhail

    2016-04-01

    Modelling of wind speed distributions in complex mountainous regions is an important and challenging problem which interests many scientists from several fields. In the present research, high frequency (10 min) Swiss wind speed monitoring data (IDAWEB service, Meteosuisse) are analysed and modelled with different parametric distributions (Weibull, GEV, Gamma, etc.) using maximum likelihood method. In total, 111 stations placed in different geomorphological units and at different altitude (from 203 to 3580 meters) are studied. Then, this information is used for training machine learning algorithms (Extreme Learning Machines, Support vector machine) to predict the distribution at new places, potentially useful for aeolian energy generation. An important part of the research deals with the construction and application of a high dimensional input feature space, generated from digital elevation model. A comprehensive study was carried out using feature selection approach to get the best model for the prediction. The main results are presented as spatial patterns of distributions' parameters.

  18. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  19. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  20. Modeling olive pollen intensity in the Mediterranean region through analysis of emission sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo, J; Orlandi, F; Pérez-Badia, R; Aguilera, F; Ben Dhiab, A; Bouziane, H; Díaz de la Guardia, C; Galán, C; Gutiérrez-Bustillo, A M; Moreno-Grau, S; Msallem, M; Trigo, M M; Fornaciari, M

    2016-05-01

    Aerobiological monitoring of Olea europaea L. is of great interest in the Mediterranean basin because olive pollen is one of the most represented pollen types of the airborne spectrum for the Mediterranean region, and olive pollen is considered one of the major cause of pollinosis in this region. The main aim of this study was to develop an airborne-pollen map based on the Pollen Index across a 4-year period (2008-2011), to provide a continuous geographic map for pollen intensity that will have practical applications from the agronomical and allergological points of view. For this purpose, the main predictor variable was an index based on the distribution and abundance of potential sources of pollen emission, including intrinsic information about the general atmospheric patterns of pollen dispersal. In addition, meteorological variables were included in the modeling, together with spatial interpolation, to allow the definition of a spatial model of the Pollen Index from the main olive cultivation areas in the Mediterranean region. The results show marked differences with respect to the dispersal patterns associated to the altitudinal gradient. The findings indicate that areas located at an altitude above 300ma.s.l. receive greater amounts of olive pollen from shorter-distance pollen sources (maximum influence, 27km) with respect to areas lower than 300ma.s.l. (maximum influence, 59km).

  1. Regional Shelter Analysis Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dillon, Michael B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Dennison, Deborah [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Kane, Jave [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Walker, Hoyt [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Miller, Paul [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The fallout from a nuclear explosion has the potential to injure or kill 100,000 or more people through exposure to external gamma (fallout) radiation. Existing buildings can reduce radiation exposure by placing material between fallout particles and exposed people. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory was tasked with developing an operationally feasible methodology that could improve fallout casualty estimates. The methodology, called a Regional Shelter Analysis, combines the fallout protection that existing buildings provide civilian populations with the distribution of people in various locations. The Regional Shelter Analysis method allows the consideration of (a) multiple building types and locations within buildings, (b) country specific estimates, (c) population posture (e.g., unwarned vs. minimally warned), and (d) the time of day (e.g., night vs. day). The protection estimates can be combined with fallout predictions (or measurements) to (a) provide a more accurate assessment of exposure and injury and (b) evaluate the effectiveness of various casualty mitigation strategies. This report describes the Regional Shelter Analysis methodology, highlights key operational aspects (including demonstrating that the methodology is compatible with current tools), illustrates how to implement the methodology, and provides suggestions for future work.

  2. Modeling analysis of the benefits of Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) for sustainable agriculture in arid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, M. S.; Vico, G.; Porporato, A. M.

    2012-12-01

    In view of the pressing needs to sustainably manage water and soil resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, here we propose a new carbon assimilation model that couples a simple yet mechanistic description of Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) photosynthesis to the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. The model captures the full coupling of the CAM photosynthetic pathway with fluctuations in environmental conditions (cycles of light availability and air humidity, changes in soil moisture as driven by plant transpiration and rainfall occurrence). As such, the model is capable of reproducing the different phases of CAM, including daytime stomatal closure and photosynthesis from malic acid, afternoon stomatal opening for direct carbon assimilation, and nighttime stomatal opening for CO2 uptake and malic acid synthesis. Thanks to its versatility, our model allows us to relate CAM productivity, for both obligate and facultative CAM plants, to various soil moisture conditions including hydroclimatic scenarios of rainfall frequency and intensity as well as different night-time conditions of temperature, wind speed, and humidity. Our analyses show the potential productive benefits of CAM cultivation in dryland environments as feedstock and possible biofuel source, in terms of sustainable water use and economic benefits. In particular, the model is used to explore conditions where CAM plant resiliency to water stress makes these plants a more sustainable alternative to C3 and C4 species for potential deficit irrigation.

  3. Analysis of Regional Differences of Energy Footprint in China Based on STIRPAT Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    On the basis of the previous researches and the ecological footprint theory,we use the cross-sectional data of Chinese energy consumption in 2007 to calculate the regional differences of energy consumption footprint of 30 provinces in China;by using the method of EEF calculation method,we calculate the regional distribution of EFI and analyze its law;through the construction of STIRPAT model,we reveal the relationship between EEF and factors of population and economy.The results show that provinces with higher EEF mainly concentrate in the Middle Eastern China,which have a developed industry,such as Shandong,Hebei,Liaoning Province and so on.However,provinces with lower EEF mainly concentrate in the Western China,which have a relatively poor economy,such as Ningxia,Qinghai Province and so on.These results are in accordance with the area distribution of China’s economic development level.The EFI decreases gradually from west to east.As the level of regional economy is improved,the EFI has the downward trend.The quantity of population shows notable impact on EFI.The per capita GDP does not show the nagative relationship with EFI,which can not prove the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve.

  4. Hybrid model of arm for analysis of regional blood oxygenation in non-invasive optical diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowocień, Sylwester; Mroczka, Janusz

    2017-06-01

    The paper presents a new comprehensive approach to modeling and analysis of processes occurring during the blood flow in the arm's small vessels as well as non-invasive measurement method of mixed venous oxygen saturation. During the work, a meta-analysis of available physiological data was performed and based on its result a hybrid model of forearm vascular tree was proposed. The model, in its structure, takes into account a classical nonlinear hydro-electric analogy in conjunction with light-tissue interaction. Several geometries of arm vascular tree obtained from magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) image were analyzed which allowed to proposed the structure of electrical analog network. Proposed model allows to simulate the behavior of forearm blood flow from the vascular tree mechanics point of view, as well as effects of the impact of cuff and vessel wall mechanics on the recorded photoplethysmographic signals. In particular, it allows to analyze the reaction and anatomical effects in small vessels and microcirculation caused by occlusive maneuver in selected techniques, what was of particular interest to authors and motivation to undertake research in this area. Preliminary studies using proposed model showed that inappropriate selection of occlusion maneuver parameters (e.g. occlusion time, cuff pressure etc.), cause dangerous turbulence of blood flow in the venous section of the vascular tree.

  5. Global and regional surface cooling in a warming climate: a multi-model analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medhaug, Iselin; Drange, Helge

    2016-06-01

    Instrumental temperature records show that the global climate may experience decadal-scale periods without warming despite a long-term warming trend. We analysed 17 global climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), identifying the likelihood and duration of periods without warming in the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, together with the preindustrial control and historical simulations. We find that non-warming periods may last 10, 15 and 30 years for RCP8.5, RCP6.0 and RCP4.5, respectively. In the models, anomalous ocean heat uptake and storage are the main factors explaining the decadal-scale surface temperature hiatus periods. The low-latitude East Pacific Ocean is a key region for these variations, acting in tandem with basin-scale anomalies in the sea level pressure. During anomalously cold decades, roughly 35-50 % of the heat anomalies in the upper 700 m of the ocean are located in the Pacific Ocean, and 25 % in the Atlantic Ocean. Decadal-scale ocean heat anomalies, integrated over the upper 700 m, have a magnitude of about 7.5 × 1021 J. This is comparable to the ocean heat uptake needed to maintain a 10 year period without increasing surface temperature under global warming. On sub-decadal time scales the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern Oceans all have the ability to store large amounts of heat, contributing to variations in global surface temperature. The likelihood of decadal-scale non-warming periods decrease with global warming, firstly at the low latitude region stretching eastward from the tropical Atlantic towards the western Pacific. The North Atlantic and Southern Oceans have largest likelihood of non-warming decades in a warming world.

  6. High beta and second region stability analysis and ICRF edge modeling. Progress report, March 15, 1988--May 14, 1989

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1989-12-31

    This report describes the tasks accomplished under Department of Energy contract {number_sign}DE-FG02-86ER53236 in modeling the edge plasma-antenna interaction that occurs during Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequency (ICRF) heating. This work has resulted in the development of several codes which determine kinetic and fluid modifications to the edge plasma. When used in combination, these code predict the level of impurity generation observed in experiments on the experiments on the Princeton Large Torus. In addition, these models suggest improvements to the design of ICRF antennas. Also described is progress made on high beta and second region analysis. Code development for a comprehensive infernal mode analysis code is nearing completion. A method has been developed for parameterizing the second region of stability and is applied to circular cross section tokamas. Various studies for high beta experimental devices such as PBX-M and DIII-D have been carried out and are reported on.

  7. Climate Change and Mortality in Vienna—A Human Biometeorological Analysis Based on Regional Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muthers, Stefan; Matzarakis, Andreas; Koch, Elisabeth

    2010-01-01

    The potential development of heat-related mortality in the 21th century for Vienna (Austria) was assessed by the use of two regional climate models based on the IPCC emissions scenarios A1B and B1. Heat stress was described with the human-biometeorological index PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature). Based on the relation between heat stress and mortality in 1970–2007, we developed two approaches to estimate the increases with and without long-term adaptation. Until 2011–2040 no significant changes will take place compared to 1970–2000, but in the following decades heat-related mortality could increase up to 129% until the end of the century, if no adaptation takes place. The strongest increase occurred due to extreme heat stress (PET ≥ 41 °C). With long-term adaptation the increase is less pronounced, but still notable. This encourages the requirement for additional adaptation measurements. PMID:20717552

  8. Biomass burning losses of carbon estimated from ecosystem modeling and satellite data analysis for the Brazilian Amazon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Christopher; Brooks Genovese, Vanessa; Klooster, Steven; Bobo, Matthew; Torregrosa, Alicia

    To produce a new daily record of gross carbon emissions from biomass burning events and post-burning decomposition fluxes in the states of the Brazilian Legal Amazon (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE), 1991. Anuario Estatistico do Brasil, Vol. 51. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil pp. 1-1024). We have used vegetation greenness estimates from satellite images as inputs to a terrestrial ecosystem production model. This carbon allocation model generates new estimates of regional aboveground vegetation biomass at 8-km resolution. The modeled biomass product is then combined for the first time with fire pixel counts from the advanced very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) to overlay regional burning activities in the Amazon. Results from our analysis indicate that carbon emission estimates from annual region-wide sources of deforestation and biomass burning in the early 1990s are apparently three to five times higher than reported in previous studies for the Brazilian Legal Amazon (Houghton et al., 2000. Nature 403, 301-304; Fearnside, 1997. Climatic Change 35, 321-360), i.e., studies which implied that the Legal Amazon region tends toward a net-zero annual source of terrestrial carbon. In contrast, our analysis implies that the total source fluxes over the entire Legal Amazon region range from 0.2 to 1.2 Pg C yr -1, depending strongly on annual rainfall patterns. The reasons for our higher burning emission estimates are (1) use of combustion fractions typically measured during Amazon forest burning events for computing carbon losses, (2) more detailed geographic distribution of vegetation biomass and daily fire activity for the region, and (3) inclusion of fire effects in extensive areas of the Legal Amazon covered by open woodland, secondary forests, savanna, and pasture vegetation. The total area of rainforest estimated annually to be deforested did not differ substantially among the previous analyses cited and our own.

  9. Regional flood frequency analysis based on a Weibull model: Part 1. Estimation and asymptotic variances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heo, Jun-Haeng; Boes, D. C.; Salas, J. D.

    2001-02-01

    Parameter estimation in a regional flood frequency setting, based on a Weibull model, is revisited. A two parameter Weibull distribution at each site, with common shape parameter over sites that is rationalized by a flood index assumption, and with independence in space and time, is assumed. The estimation techniques of method of moments and method of probability weighted moments are studied by proposing a family of estimators for each technique and deriving the asymptotic variance of each estimator. Then a single estimator and its asymptotic variance for each technique, suggested by trying to minimize the asymptotic variance over the family of estimators, is obtained. These asymptotic variances are compared to the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound, which is known to be the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimator. A companion paper considers the application of this model and these estimation techniques to a real data set. It includes a simulation study designed to indicate the sample size required for compatibility of the asymptotic results to fixed sample sizes.

  10. Analysis of MODIS snow cover time series over the alpine regions as input for hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notarnicola, Claudia; Rastner, Philipp; Irsara, Luca; Moelg, Nico; Bertoldi, Giacomo; Dalla Chiesa, Stefano; Endrizzi, Stefano; Zebisch, Marc

    2010-05-01

    Snow extent and relative physical properties are key parameters in hydrology, weather forecast and hazard warning as well as in climatological models. Satellite sensors offer a unique advantage in monitoring snow cover due to their temporal and spatial synoptic view. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) from NASA is especially useful for this purpose due to its high frequency. However, in order to evaluate the role of snow on the water cycle of a catchment such as runoff generation due to snowmelt, remote sensing data need to be assimilated in hydrological models. This study presents a comparison on a multi-temporal basis between snow cover data derived from (1) MODIS images, (2) LANDSAT images, and (3) predictions by the hydrological model GEOtop [1,3]. The test area is located in the catchment of the Matscher Valley (South Tyrol, Northern Italy). The snow cover maps derived from MODIS-images are obtained using a newly developed algorithm taking into account the specific requirements of mountain regions with a focus on the Alps [2]. This algorithm requires the standard MODIS-products MOD09 and MOD02 as input data and generates snow cover maps at a spatial resolution of 250 m. The final output is a combination of MODIS AQUA and MODIS TERRA snow cover maps, thus reducing the presence of cloudy pixels and no-data-values due to topography. By using these maps, daily time series starting from the winter season (November - May) 2002 till 2008/2009 have been created. Along with snow maps from MODIS images, also some snow cover maps derived from LANDSAT images have been used. Due to their high resolution (manto nevoso in aree alpine con dati MODIS multi-temporali e modelli idrologici, 13th ASITA National Conference, 1-4.12.2009, Bari, Italy. [3] Zanotti F., Endrizzi S., Bertoldi G. and Rigon R. 2004. The GEOtop snow module. Hydrological Processes, 18: 3667-3679. DOI:10.1002/hyp.5794.

  11. Predictive models and spatial analysis for the study of deserted medieval villages in Basilicata Region (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biscione, Marilisa; Danese, Maria; Masini, Nicola; Sabia, Canio

    2016-04-01

    The study is focused on villages that are abandoned throughout the Basilicata from the 13th to the 15th century (Masini 1998), which is an emblematic case of abandonment of settlements in Late Middle Ages, which was a very common phenomenon throughout the whole Europe, attracting the interest of several historians and archaeologists (Demians d'Archimbaud 2001) The aim of the present study is to offer a contribution to knowledge of the medieval Basilicata's landscapes and settlement's dynamics with a multidisciplinary approach, derived from the rescue archeology: we have integrated the documentary sources with the use of spatial analysis and predictive models (Danese et al. 2009). The preventive archeology was born to conciliate the protection of archeological heritage, in evidence and potential, with the needs of urban design and planning. It is of fundamental importance, for a reliable evaluation of archaeological potential (identifying invisible traces) to use innovative diagnostic technologies: geophysical prospections, remote sensing (Lasaponara & Masini 2010; Lasaponara et al. 2016) and spatial analysis for the creation of predictive models. The latter are used to accomplish operational purposes but also for the historical landscape reconstruction (Danese et al. 2013; 2014). They contribute to analyse settlements and their dynamics on the basis of definite method and parameters. Thanks to predictive models it is possible, in fact, to start off by information of well-known archeological sites and use this knowledge as an empiric test for understand which elements have influenced their localization in the space. The relationships among natural environment, social context and position site are analysed in order to make clear the rules of settlement. These rules are then used into the model (Podobnikar et al. 2001). In this work the employed methodology is Spatial Analysis, in order to subdivide the territory based on its importance respect to a given function

  12. A dynamic model of some malaria-transmitting anopheline mosquitoes of the Afrotropical region. I. Model description and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunde, Torleif Markussen; Korecha, Diriba; Loha, Eskindir; Sorteberg, Asgeir; Lindtjørn, Bernt

    2013-01-23

    Most of the current biophysical models designed to address the large-scale distribution of malaria assume that transmission of the disease is independent of the vector involved. Another common assumption in these type of model is that the mortality rate of mosquitoes is constant over their life span and that their dispersion is negligible. Mosquito models are important in the prediction of malaria and hence there is a need for a realistic representation of the vectors involved. We construct a biophysical model including two competing species, Anopheles gambiae s.s. and Anopheles arabiensis. Sensitivity analysis highlight the importance of relative humidity and mosquito size, the initial conditions and dispersion, and a rarely used parameter, the probability of finding blood. We also show that the assumption of exponential mortality of adult mosquitoes does not match the observed data, and suggest that an age dimension can overcome this problem. This study highlights some of the assumptions commonly used when constructing mosquito-malaria models and presents a realistic model of An. gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis and their interaction. This new mosquito model, OMaWa, can improve our understanding of the dynamics of these vectors, which in turn can be used to understand the dynamics of malaria.

  13. A dynamic model of some malaria-transmitting anopheline mosquitoes of the Afrotropical region. I. Model description and sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Most of the current biophysical models designed to address the large-scale distribution of malaria assume that transmission of the disease is independent of the vector involved. Another common assumption in these type of model is that the mortality rate of mosquitoes is constant over their life span and that their dispersion is negligible. Mosquito models are important in the prediction of malaria and hence there is a need for a realistic representation of the vectors involved. Results We construct a biophysical model including two competing species, Anopheles gambiae s.s. and Anopheles arabiensis. Sensitivity analysis highlight the importance of relative humidity and mosquito size, the initial conditions and dispersion, and a rarely used parameter, the probability of finding blood. We also show that the assumption of exponential mortality of adult mosquitoes does not match the observed data, and suggest that an age dimension can overcome this problem. Conclusions This study highlights some of the assumptions commonly used when constructing mosquito-malaria models and presents a realistic model of An. gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis and their interaction. This new mosquito model, OMaWa, can improve our understanding of the dynamics of these vectors, which in turn can be used to understand the dynamics of malaria. PMID:23342980

  14. Model for Building a Distribution Network Based on the Multivariate Analysis of the Industrial and Logistical Potential of Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Vladimirovich Kirillov

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The international integration of the Russian economy is connected to the need of the realization of the competitive advantages of the geopolitical position of Russia, the industrial potential of regions, the logistic infrastructure of transport corridors. This article discusses the design model of the supply chain (distribution network based on the multivariate analysis and the methodology of the substantiation of its configuration based on the cost factors and the level of the logistics infrastructure development. For solving the problem of placing one or more logistics centers in the service area, a two-stage algorithm is used. At the first stage, the decisions on the reasonability of the choice of one or another version of the development are made with А. В. Кириллов, В. Е. Целин 345 ЭКОНОМИКА РЕГИОНА №4 (2015 the use of the “Make or Buy” standard model. The criterion of decision making is the guaranteed overcoming of the threshold of “indifference” taking into account the statistical characteristics of costs for options of “buy” and “make” depending on the volume of consumption of goods or services. At the second stage, the Ardalan’s heuristic method is used for the evaluation of the choice of placing one or more logistics centers in the service area. The model parameters are based on the assessment of the development prospects of the region and its investment potential (existence and composition of employment, production, natural resources, financial and consumer opportunities, institutional, innovation, infrastructure capacity. Furthermore, such criteria as a regional financial appeal, professionally trained specialists, the competitive advantages of the promoted company and others are analyzed. An additional criterion is the development of the priority matrix, which considers such factors as difficulties of customs registration and certification, a level of regional transport

  15. Neutron lifetimes behavior analysis considering the two-region kinetic model in the IPEN/MB-01 reactor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonnelli, Eduardo; Diniz, Ricardo

    2014-11-01

    This is a complementary work about the behavior analysis of the neutron lifetimes that was developed in the IPEN/MB-01 nuclear reactor facility. The macroscopic neutron noise technique was experimentally employed using pulse mode detectors for two stages of control rods insertion, where a total of twenty levels of subcriticality have been carried out. It was also considered that the neutron reflector density was treated as an additional group of delayed neutrons, being a sophisticated approach in the two-region kinetic theoretical model.

  16. Stakeholder Engagement in the Development and Application of a Regional Earth Systems Model: Analysis of Researchers' Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, E. R.; Stephens, J. C.; Kruger, C.; Leung, F. T.

    2011-12-01

    Engaging stakeholders in the development of regional earth systems models has potential to improve model accuracy and enhance model relevance for decision makers. BioEarth is one earth systems modeling project currently under development aimed at investigating how climate and human-induced changes impact environmental nitrogen and carbon cycling. One proposed application of this model is to predict impacts on natural resource management in the Pacific Northwest to inform decision-making by stakeholders in the forestry and agriculture sectors. Integrating input from natural resource managers and other stakeholders into the model development process, therefore, is critical. However, many model developers have limited experience in engaging stakeholders throughout model development processes. Understanding researchers' perceptions of the potential value and challenges of stakeholder engagement in model development at the early phase of the project provides general insights related to science communication as well as project-specific insights. For BioEarth, findings about project scientists' perspectives may inform the design of information exchange mechanisms between researchers and stakeholders. To assess researchers' perceptions of the relevance of the model to decision-making and understand researchers' previous experiences, expectations and concerns regarding stakeholder input and interaction we conducted a semi-formal interview and a quantitative questionnaire with each of the project's 18 principal investigators. Interview transcripts were coded and interpreted following a thematic content analysis approach. We expect to find a range of perceptions among BioEarth researchers regarding the kind of involvement and degree of influence that stakeholders may have in the model development process. We also expect a range of attitudes and approaches toward participatory research processes. In addition to improving the effectiveness of stakeholder engagement in the

  17. The Scandinavian regional model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torfing, Jacob; Lidström, Anders; Røiseland, Asbjørn

    2015-01-01

    This article maps how the sub-national regional levels of governance in Denmark, Norway and Sweden have changed from a high degree of institutional convergence to a pattern of institutional divergence. It analyses the similarities and differences in the changes in regional governance and discusses...

  18. Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: Analysis with Global Multi-regional MARKAL model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peter Rafaj; Socrates Kypreos [Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen-PSI (Switzerland). Energy Economics Modelling Group, General Energy Department

    2007-02-15

    The Global MARKAL-Model (GMM), a multi-regional 'bottom-up' partial equilibrium model of the global energy system with endogenous technological learning, is used to address impacts of internalisation of external costs from power production. This modelling approach imposes additional charges on electricity generation, which reflect the costs of environmental and health damages from local pollutants (SO{sub 2}, NOx) and climate change, wastes, occupational health, risk of accidents, noise and other burdens. Technologies allowing abatement of pollutants emitted from power plants are rapidly introduced into the energy system, for example, desulphurisation, NOx removal, and CO{sub 2} scrubbers. The modelling results indicate substantial changes in the electricity production system in favour of natural gas combined cycle, nuclear power and renewables induced by internalisation of external costs and also efficiency loss due to the use of scrubbers. Structural changes and fuel switching in the electricity sector result in significant reduction of emissions of both local pollution and CO{sub 2} over the modelled time period. Strong decarbonisation impact of internalising local externalities suggests that ancillary benefits can be expected from policies directly addressing other issues then CO{sub 2} mitigation. Finally, the detailed analysis of the total generation cost of different technologies points out that inclusion of external cost in the price of electricity increases competitiveness of non-fossil generation sources and fossil power plants with emission control. 28 refs., 13 figs., 6 tabs.

  19. Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: Analysis with Global Multi-regional MARKAL model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rafaj, Peter [Energy Economics Modelling Group, General Energy Department, Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232. Villigen-PSI (Switzerland)]. E-mail: Peter.Rafaj@psi.ch; Kypreos, Socrates [Energy Economics Modelling Group, General Energy Department, Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232. Villigen-PSI (Switzerland)]. E-mail: Socrates.Kypreos@psi.ch

    2007-02-15

    The Global MARKAL-Model (GMM), a multi-regional 'bottom-up' partial equilibrium model of the global energy system with endogenous technological learning, is used to address impacts of internalisation of external costs from power production. This modelling approach imposes additional charges on electricity generation, which reflect the costs of environmental and health damages from local pollutants (SO{sub 2}, NO {sub x} ) and climate change, wastes, occupational health, risk of accidents, noise and other burdens. Technologies allowing abatement of pollutants emitted from power plants are rapidly introduced into the energy system, for example, desulphurisation, NO {sub x} removal, and CO{sub 2} scrubbers. The modelling results indicate substantial changes in the electricity production system in favour of natural gas combined cycle, nuclear power and renewables induced by internalisation of external costs and also efficiency loss due to the use of scrubbers. Structural changes and fuel switching in the electricity sector result in significant reduction of emissions of both local pollution and CO{sub 2} over the modelled time period. Strong decarbonisation impact of internalising local externalities suggests that ancillary benefits can be expected from policies directly addressing other issues then CO{sub 2} mitigation. Finally, the detailed analysis of the total generation cost of different technologies points out that inclusion of external cost in the price of electricity increases competitiveness of non-fossil generation sources and fossil power plants with emission control00.

  20. Regional Policy Models for Forest Biodiversity Analysis: Lessons From Coastal Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. Norman Johnson; Sally Duncan; Thomas A. Spies

    2007-01-01

    The crisis in the early 1990s over conservation of biodiversity in the forests of the Pacific Northwest caused an upheaval in forest policies for public and private landowners. These events led to the development of the Coastal Landscape Assessment and Modeling Study (CLAMS) for the Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon, a province containing over two million...

  1. Modelling and Analysis of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Rivers in the Northern Cold Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gula Tang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the Mudan River, which is the most typical river in the northern cold region of China was selected as the research object; Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC was adopted to construct a new two-dimensional water quality model for the urban sections of the Mudan River, and concentrations of CODCr and NH3N during ice-covered and open-water periods were simulated and analyzed. Results indicated that roughness coefficient and comprehensive pollutant decay rate were significantly different in those periods. To be specific, the roughness coefficient in the ice-covered period was larger than that of the open-water period, while the decay rate within the former period was smaller than that in the latter. In addition, according to the analysis of the simulated results, the main reasons for the decay rate reduction during the ice-covered period are temperature drop, upstream inflow decrease and ice layer cover; among them, ice sheet is the major contributor of roughness increase. These aspects were discussed in more detail in this work. The model could be generalized to hydrodynamic water quality process simulation researches on rivers in other cold regions as well.

  2. Modelling and Analysis of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Rivers in the Northern Cold Region of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Gula; Zhu, Yunqiang; Wu, Guozheng; Li, Jing; Li, Zhao-Liang; Sun, Jiulin

    2016-01-01

    In this study, the Mudan River, which is the most typical river in the northern cold region of China was selected as the research object; Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) was adopted to construct a new two-dimensional water quality model for the urban sections of the Mudan River, and concentrations of CODCr and NH3N during ice-covered and open-water periods were simulated and analyzed. Results indicated that roughness coefficient and comprehensive pollutant decay rate were significantly different in those periods. To be specific, the roughness coefficient in the ice-covered period was larger than that of the open-water period, while the decay rate within the former period was smaller than that in the latter. In addition, according to the analysis of the simulated results, the main reasons for the decay rate reduction during the ice-covered period are temperature drop, upstream inflow decrease and ice layer cover; among them, ice sheet is the major contributor of roughness increase. These aspects were discussed in more detail in this work. The model could be generalized to hydrodynamic water quality process simulation researches on rivers in other cold regions as well. PMID:27070631

  3. Dike Strength Analysis on a Regional Scale Based On a Stochastic Subsoil Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koelewijn, A. R.; Vastenburg, E. W.

    2013-12-01

    About two-third of the Netherlands is protected against flooding by dikes and levees. The subsoil can be characterized by fluvial and marine sediments. Maintaining the safety of these dikes and levees is of vital importance. Insufficient safety is not permissible, but excessive safety would imply a waste of money and other resources. Therefore safety assessments are carried out on a regular basis. Over the past decades, a practice has grown to calculate a limited number of cross-sections, roughly one every 500 to 1000 meters. For this purpose, a representative cross-section is selected as an estimate of the most vulnerable surface geometry and the subsoil conditions determined from boreholes and cone penetration tests, for which slope stability and piping analyses are carried out. This is a time-consuming procedure which is not only expensive, but also neglects geological knowledge. A method to incorporate geological knowledge of an area, including updating on the basis of additional investigations, has been described in Koelewijn et al. [2011]. In addition, various groups have worked to incorporate geotechnical stability models and detailed Lidar-measurements of the surface into a more efficient and rational calculation process [Knoeff et al. 2011, Lam et al. 2013, van den Ham & Mastbergen, 2013]. Combining this experience with the 3D subsoil model opens possibilities for cost-effective additional soil investigations for those locations where ruling out unfavorable conditions really influences the decisions to be made regarding rejection and improvement, see the figure for examples of different subsoil profiles along a dike. The resulting system has been applied for semi-automated calculations of dikes in various parts of the Netherlands, totalling over 4000 km by now, and a part of the Mississippi levee system. [van den Ham & Mastbergen, 2013] G.A. van den Ham & D.R. Mastbergen, A semi-probabilistic assessment method for flow slides. AGU Fall meeting, 2013

  4. Analysis of regional rainfall-runoff parameters for the Lake Michigan Diversion hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soong, David T.; Over, Thomas M.

    2015-01-01

    The Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting (LMDA) system has been developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District (USACE-Chicago) and the State of Illinois as a part of the interstate Great Lakes water regulatory program. The diverted Lake Michigan watershed is a 673-square-mile watershed that is comprised of the Chicago River and Calumet River watersheds. They originally drained into Lake Michigan, but now flow to the Mississippi River watershed via three canals constructed in the Chicago area in the early twentieth century. Approximately 393 square miles of the diverted watershed is ungaged, and the runoff from the ungaged portion of the diverted watershed has been estimated by the USACE-Chicago using the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) program. The accuracy of simulated runoff depends on the accuracy of the parameter set used in the HSPF program. Nine parameter sets comprised of the North Branch, Little Calumet, Des Plaines, Hickory Creek, CSSC, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008 have been developed at different time periods and used by the USACE-Chicago. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey and the USACE-Chicago collaboratively analyzed the parameter sets using nine gaged watersheds in or adjacent to the diverted watershed to assess the predictive accuracies of selected parameter sets. Six of the parameter sets, comprising North Branch, Hickory Creek, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008, were applied to the nine gaged watersheds for evaluating their simulation accuracy from water years 1996 to 2011. The nine gaged watersheds were modeled by using the three LMDA land-cover types (grass, forest, and hydraulically connected imperviousness) based on the 2006 National Land Cover Database, and the latest meteorological and precipitation data consistent with the current (2014) LMDA modeling framework.

  5. Analysis of inter-variable relations in regional climate model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcke, Renate; Chandler, Richard

    2015-04-01

    The topic of physical consistency and inter-variable relations of climate model output, in particular when applying statistical downscaling and bias correction to single variables, is widely discussed in the climate impact modelling and climate impact communities. Many situations require the consideration of several climate variables simultaneously, as a result of which it is also necessary to check that the inter-variable dependence structure is simulated realistically by the RCMs. Given that it is common practice to bias-adjust RCM outputs so as to improve their properties with respect to the distribution of variables taken individually, it is also of interest to determine whether inter-variable relationships are affected by empirical bias adjustment procedures such as quantile mapping, that are applied separately to each variable. A pragmatic reason to look at this is, if bias-adjusted outputs are to be used in impacts studies, it is necessary to check that the inter-variable relationships are realistic. A more fundamental reason is, that RCMs are physically based and, before bias correction, their outputs should therefore ideally be physically consistent. However, an empirical bias adjustment procedure has the potential to break the physical consistency, thereby removing one of the strongest justifications for using RCMs in the first place. Based on these considerations, the study aims to answer two questions. The first is to assess the inter-variable relationships in a suite of RCM outputs in more detail than has previously been attempted, by examining conditional probability densities instead of correlations. The second is to quantify the extent to which these conditional densities are distorted by an empirical bias adjustment procedure. The results can be used both to evaluate the ability of current RCMs (bias-adjusted or not) to provide useful information for climate change impact assessments; and also to determine the viability of quantile mapping as a

  6. Assessment of regional influence from a petrochemical complex by modeling and fingerprint analysis of volatile organic compounds (VOCs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Yuan-Chang; Chen, Sheng-Po; Tong, Yu-Huei; Fan, Chen-Lun; Chen, Wei-Hao; Wang, Jia-Lin; Chang, Julius S.

    2016-09-01

    This study aimed to demonstrate a strategy to investigate the influence of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) on its neighboring districts from a gigantic petrochemical complex. Monitoring of the VOCs in the region was achieved by a nine-station network, dubbed photochemical assessment measurement stations (PAMS), which produced speciated mixing ratios of 54 non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) to represent VOCs with an hourly resolution within a 20 km radius. One-year (2013/10/1-2014/9/30) worth of PAMS data from the network were used in forms of total NMHCs (called PAMS-TNMHC) and speciated mixing ratios. Three dimensional modeling coupled with PAMS measurements successfully elucidated how the study domain was affected by the petrochemical complex and distant sources under three typical seasonal wind patterns: northeast monsoonal, southwest monsoonal, and local-circulation. More exquisite analysis of influence on the neighboring districts was permitted with the use of speciated mixing ratios of VOCs provided by the PAMS network. The ratios of ethylene/acetylene (E/A) > 3 and propylene/acetylene (P/A) > 1.5 were used as indicators to reveal the PAMS sites affected by the petrochemical emissions. Consequently, the hourly speciated data from the nine PAMS sites enabled a finer assessment of the districts affected by the complex to calculate the percent time of influence (dubbed TI%) for all the sites (districts). It was found that the region was more affected by the complex under both the northeast monsoonal and the local-circulation wind types with some of the PAMS sites greater than 5% for the TI%. By contrast, influence on the region was found minimal under the southwest monsoonal flow with the TI% small than 1.5% across all sites. This study successfully devised a method of assessment with the use of speciated measurements of selected VOCs and modeling to assess the influence of a prominent source on the neighboring districts by filtering out irrelevant sources under

  7. Investigating the Nexus of Climate, Energy, Water, and Land at Decision-Relevant Scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraucunas, Ian P.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dirks, James A.; Hathaway, John E.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Huang, Maoyi; Jin, Chunlian; Kintner-Meyer, Michael C.W.; Kleese van Dam, Kerstin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Li, Hongyi; Moss, Richard H.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.; Thomson, Allison M.; Voisin, Nathalie; West, Tristram O.

    2015-04-01

    The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA) is an innovative modeling system developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to simulate interactions among natural and human systems at scales relevant to regional decision making. PRIMA brings together state-of-the-art models of regional climate, hydrology, agriculture, socioeconomics, and energy systems using a flexible coupling approach. The platform can be customized to inform a variety of complex questions and decisions, such as the integrated evaluation of mitigation and adaptation options across a range of sectors. Research into stakeholder decision support needs underpins the platform's application to regional issues, including uncertainty characterization. Ongoing numerical experiments are yielding new insights into the interactions among human and natural systems on regional scales with an initial focus on the energy-land-water nexus in the upper U.S. Midwest. This paper focuses on PRIMA’s functional capabilities and describes some lessons learned to date about integrated regional modeling.

  8. Global dynamic analysis of a H7N9 avian-human influenza model in an outbreak region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yongxue; Wen, Yongxian

    2015-02-21

    In 2013 in China a new type of avian influenza virus, H7N9, began to infect humans and had aroused severe fatality in the infected humans. We know that the spread is from poultry to humans, and the H7N9 avian influenza is low pathogenic in the poultry world but highly pathogenic in the human world, but the transmission mechanism is unclear. Since it has no signs of human-to-human transmission and outbreaks are isolated in some cities in China, in order to investigate the transmission mechanism of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza, an eco-epidemiological model in an outbreak region is proposed and analyzed dynamically. Researches and reports show that gene mutation makes the new virus be capable of infecting humans, therefore the mutation factor is taken into account in the model. The global dynamic analysis is conducted, different thresholds are identified, persistence and global qualitative behaviors are obtained. The impact of H7N9 avian influenza on the people population is concerned. Finally, the numerical simulations are carried out to support the theoretical analysis and to investigate the disease control measures. It seems that we may take people׳s hygiene and prevention awareness factor as a significant policy to achieve the aim of both the disease control and the economic returns.

  9. Organic aerosol concentration and composition over Europe: insights from comparison of regional model predictions with aerosol mass spectrometer factor analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Fountoukis

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A detailed three-dimensional regional chemical transport model (PMCAMx was applied over Europe focusing on the formation and chemical transformation of organic matter. Three periods representative of different seasons were simulated, corresponding to intensive field campaigns. An extensive set of AMS measurements was used to evaluate the model and, using factor analysis results, gain more insight into the sources and transformations of organic aerosol (OA. Overall, the agreement between predictions and measurements for OA concentration is encouraging with the model reproducing two thirds of the data (daily average mass concentrations within a factor of two. Oxygenated OA (OOA is predicted to contribute 93% to total OA during May, 87% during winter and 96% during autumn with the rest consisting of fresh primary OA (POA. Predicted OOA concentrations compare well with the observed OOA values for all periods with an average fractional error of 0.53 and a bias equal to −0.07 (mean error = 0.9 μg m−3, mean bias = −0.2 μg m−3. The model systematically underpredicts fresh POA in most sites during late spring and autumn (mean bias up to −0.8 μg m−3. Based on results from a source apportionment algorithm running in parallel with PMCAMx, most of the POA originates from biomass burning (fires and residential wood combustion and therefore biomass burning OA is most likely underestimated in the emission inventory. The model performs well at all sites when the PMF-estimated low volatility OOA is compared against the OA with C* ≤ 0.1 μg m−3 and semivolatile OOA against the OA with C* > 0.1 μg m−3 respectively.

  10. Analysis of ionospheric TEC from GNSS observables over the Turkish region and predictability of IRI and SPIM models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansari, Kutubuddin; Corumluoglu, Ozsen; Panda, Sampad Kumar

    2017-04-01

    months. The latitudinal study shows daytime TEC slowly decreasing with latitudes with a latitudinal gradient range of 0.1-0.2 TECU/degree. Additionally, the TEC analysis during the strong geomagnetic storm period (07-11 September 2015; SYM-H -120 nT) infers relatively better predictability of the SPIM model compared to the IRI 2012 model. The outputs of this study would complement towards a complete understanding of the lower mid-latitude ionospheric dynamics and its effects on radio propagations, particularly over the Turkish region.

  11. Evidence and analysis of 2012 Greenland records from spaceborne observations, a regional climate model and reanalysis data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Tedesco

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available A combined analysis of remote sensing observations, regional climate model (RCM outputs and reanalysis data over the Greenland ice sheet provides evidence that multiple records were set during summer 2012. Melt extent was the largest in the satellite era (extending up to ~ 97% of the ice sheet and melting lasted up to ~ two months longer than the 1979–2011 mean. Model results indicate that near surface temperature was ~ 3 standard deviations (σ above the 1958–2011 mean, while surface mass balance was ~ 3σ below the mean and runoff was 3.9σ above the mean over the same period. Albedo, exposure of bare ice and surface mass balance also set new records, as did the total mass balance with summer and annual mass changes of, respectively, −627 Gt and −574 Gt, 2σ below the 2003–2012 mean.

    We identify persistent anticyclonic conditions over Greenland associated with anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, changes in surface conditions (e.g. albedo and pre-conditioning of surface properties from recent extreme melting as major driving mechanisms for the 2012 records. Because of self-amplifying positive feedbacks, less positive if not increasingly negative SMB will likely occur should large-scale atmospheric circulation and induced surface characteristics observed over the past decade persist. Since the general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 do not simulate the abnormal anticyclonic circulation resulting from extremely negative NAO conditions as observed over recent years, contribution to sea level rise projected under different warming scenarios will be underestimated should the trend in NAO summer values continue.

  12. Analysis of the Influence of the Electrical Asynchrony on Regional Mechanics of the Infarcted Left Ventricle Using Electromechanical Heart Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Feng; Xia, Ling; Zhang, Xin

    Asynchronous electrical activation, as induced by myocardial infarction, causes various abnormalities in left ventricle function. The influence of the electrical asynchrony on regional mechanics of the left ventricle is simulated using a mechanical heart model and an electrical heart model. The mechanical model accounts for the ventricular geometry, the fiber nature of the myocardial tissue, and the dependency of the activation sequence of the ventricular wall. The electrical model is based on a heart-torso model with realistic geometry, and different action potential waveforms with variables in duration are used to simulate the abnormal electrical activation after myocardial infarction. Regional deformation, strain and stress are calculated during systole phase. The preliminary results show that asynchronous electrical activation, as an important factor, significantly affects regional mechanical performance of the infarcted left ventricle, it indicates heterogeneous contraction pattern and elevated systolic stresses near the injured region. The simulated results are compared with solutions obtained in the literature. This simulation suggests that such coupled heart models can be used to assess the mechanical function of the left ventricle with diseases such as myocardial infarction, and more realistic models of cardiac function are essential for clinical evaluation of heart disease.

  13. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowlands, Ian H. [UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, and Univ. of Waterloo (Canada)

    1998-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the `regional` - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  14. Analysis of the suitability of the German soil texture classification for the regional scale application of physical based hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Bormann

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Regional scale hydrological simulations are mostly based on the use of standard data sets such as soil maps which are based on soil texture classification schemes. This paper analyses the suitability of the German soil texture classification for the application of a physically based soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer scheme. Theoretical soil columns are defined to be able to represent the entire soil texture triangle by a 1% grid of the three particle size classes: sand, clay and silt. These theoretical soil columns are characterized by a homogenous soil texture and consist of two layers of increasing bulk density and decreasing content of organic matter with depth. Soil hydraulic parameterisation is derived by applying a pedotransfer function. Continuous water balance calculations are carried out for a ten year period for all grid cells of the 1% grid. The results of the water balance calculations are compared to the simulation results of the centre of gravity of the respective soil texture class. Texture class specific mean deviations and root mean squared deviations are calculated from the differences between the 1% pixels and texture class representatives. The results reveal that the loam and silt texture classes show only small deviations from the centres of gravity. For a few sand texture classes and most of the clay texture classes deviations are considerably large. Assuming an equal distributed probability of occurrence of all realisations within a soil texture class, an uncertainty of more than 100 mm/a with respect to runoff and actual evapotranspiration is detected for four clay texture classes, two sand texture classes and one silt texture class. These results are confirmed by a sensitivity analysis investigating the model response for a grid cell compared to the neighboured grid cells. High sensitivities mainly appear for sandy and clayey soils while the sensitivity of the model for loam and silt soils is smaller. Resuming it can

  15. The analysis of large-scale turbulence characteristics in the Indonesian seas derived from a regional model based on the Princeton Ocean Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. O'Driscoll

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The analysis is presented of the distribution of deep ocean turbulence characteristics on the horizontal scale of order 100 km in the vicinity of the Lifamatola Sill, from the Southern Maluku Sea (north of the sill to the Seram Sea (south of the sill. The turbulence characteristics were calculated with a regional model of the Indonesian seas circulation based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM, incorporating the Mellor-Yamada turbulence closure scheme. The analysis has been carried out for the entire Indonesian seas region, including areas around important topographic features, such as the Lifamatola Sill, the North Sangihe Ridge, the Dewakang Sill and the North and South Halmahera Sea Sills. To illustrate results of application of the Mellor-Yamada closure scheme we have focused on the description of features of turbulence characteristics across the Lifamatola Sill because dynamically this region is very important and some estimates of mixing coefficients in this area are available. As is well known, the POM model output provides both dynamical (depth-integrated and 3-D velocities, temperature, salinity, and sea-surface-height and turbulence characteristics (kinetic energy and master scale of turbulence, mixing coefficients of momentum, temperature and salinity, etc.. As a rule, the analysis of POM modeling results has been restricted to the study of corresponding dynamical characteristics, however the study of turbulence characteristics is essential to understanding the dynamics of the ocean circulation as well. Due to the absence of direct measurements of turbulence characteristics in the analyzed area, we argued the validity of the simulated characteristics in the light of their compatibility with some general principles. Thus, along these lines, vertical profiles of across-the-sill velocities, twice the kinetic energy of turbulence, turbulence length scale, the separate terms in the equation of kinetic energy of turbulence, the Richardson

  16. Analysis of two Saharan dust events of North Africa in the Mediterranean region by Using SKIRON/Eta model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benaouda, D.; Kallos, G.; Azzi, A.; Louka, P.; Benlefki, A.

    2009-04-01

    aerosol is involved in many important processes in Earth's climate system, with important implications for air quality, climate, atmospheric chemistry, and the biosphere, and different impacts on human health. The relative importance of mineral dust in particulate matter depends on location, season and particle size, mainly concentrated in the coarse fraction. Its impacts on climate and environment have increased years after years and needs to be more understood. In the present work, the relationships between the meteorological conditions and dust transport phenomena from the Saharan regions of north Africa and their transport, deposition in both modes, dry and wet deposition in the Mediterranean region, and the Atlantic Ocean, during two dust events namely: case I (01/03/04 - 06/03/04), case II (29/05/05 - 03/06/05), that have been analysed and their major characteristics have been discussed. This analysis has been performed with the aid of the SKIRON modelling system of the University of Athens. The dust module of SKIRON/Eta model incorporates the state of the art parameterization of all the major phases of the desert dust cycle such as production, diffusion, advection and removal. Model results have been compared with TOMS-AI (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrophotometer Aerosol Index) data for a qualitative comparison of the model. The work has been conducted at the framework of TEMPUS project MADEPODIM.

  17. Illustration of Single-Regional and Inter-Regional Approach in Regional Input-Output Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karel Šafr

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Analytical works usually use single-regional approach which does not demand so much data. However, this approach disregards flows of output among regions. This leads to a misrepresentation of results which can be eliminated by using Inter-regional input-output model that requires more data to be employed. This paper illustrates the differences between the two different approaches of regional input-output model construction and their results. We construct inter-regional and single-regional models for all 14 regions of the Czech Republic and with 82 products according to the Classification of Products CZ-CPA. The results are compared on the level of Leontief’s matrix and multipliers. We use graphical illustrations to depict the systematicness of differences. The single-regional approach proves a systematic undervaluation of specific products and regions contrary to other regions. The graphical analysis shows the significance of the connection among regions. This illustrates the disadvantage of the single regional approach. Finally, the results confirm the idea of a signifiant analytical misrepresentation of impacts modelled by this approach in the case of data for the Czech Republic.

  18. Inclusion of climatic and touristic factors in the analysis and modelling of the municipal water demand in a Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Elena; Bragalli, Cristiana; Neri, Mattia

    2017-04-01

    In Mediterranean regions, inherently affected by water scarcity conditions, the gap between water availability and demand may further increase in the near future due to both climatic and anthropogenic drivers. In particular, the high degree of urbanization and the concentration of population and activities in coastal areas is often severely impacting the water availability also for the residential sector. It is therefore crucial analysing the importance of both climatic and touristic factors as drivers for the water demand in such areas, to better understand and model the expected consumption in order to improve the water management policies and practices. The study presents an analysis referred to a large number of municipalities, covering almost the whole Romagna region, in Northern Italy, representing one of the most economically developed areas in Europe and characterized by an extremely profitable tourist industry, especially in the coastal cities. For this region it is therefore extremely important to assess the significance of the drivers that may influence the demand in the different periods of the year, that is climatic factors (rainfall depths and occurrence, temperature averages and extremes), but also the presence of tourists, in both official tourist accommodation structures and in holidays homes (and the latter are very difficult to estimate). Analyses on the Italian water industry at seasonal or monthly time scale has been so far, extremely limited in the literature by the scarce availability of data on the water demands, that are made public only as annual volumes. All the study municipalities are supplied by the same water company, who provided monthly consumption volumes data at the main inlet points of the entire distribution network for a period of 7 years (2009-2015). For the same period, precipitation and temperature data have been collected and summarised in indexes representing monthly averages, days of occurrence and over threshold values

  19. Analysis of a general circulation model product. I - Frontal systems in the Brazil/Malvinas and Kuroshio/Oyashio regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzoli, Silvia L.; Garraffo, Zulema; Podesta, Guillermo; Brown, Otis

    1992-01-01

    The general circulation model (GCM) of Semtner and Chervin (1992) is tested by comparing the fields produced by this model with available observations in two western boundary current regions, the Brazil/Malvinas and the Kuroshio/Oyashio confluences. The two sets of data used are the sea surface temperature from satellite observations and the temperature field product from the GCM at levels 1 (12.5 m), 2 (37.5 m), and 6 (160 m). It is shown that the model reproduces intense thermal fronts at the sea surface and in the upper layers (where they are induced by the internal dynamics of the model). The location of the fronts are reproduced in the model within 4 to 5 deg, compared with observations. However, the variability of these fronts was found to be less pronounced in the model than in the observations.

  20. Using Different Spatial Scales of Climate Data for Regional Climate Impact Assessment: Effect on Crop Modeling Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Trabucco, A.; Montesarchio, M.; Mercogliano, P.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    The high vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate conditions causes serious concern regarding climate change impacts on crop development and production, particularly in vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean Basin. Crop simulation models are the most common tools applied for the assessment of such impacts on crop development and yields, both at local and regional scales. However, the use of these models in regional impact studies requires spatial input data for weather, soil, management, etc, whose resolution could affect simulation results. Indeed, the uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts on crop phenology and yield at the regional scale is affected not only by the uncertainty related to climate models and scenarios, but also by the downscaling methods and the resolution of climate data. The aim of this study was the evaluation of the effects of spatial resolutions of climate projections in estimating maturity date and grain yield for different varieties of durum wheat, common wheat and maize in Italy. The simulations were carried out using the CSM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize crop models included in the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, parameterized and evaluated in different experimental sites located in Italy. Dynamically downscaled climate data at different resolutions and different RCP scenarios were used as input in the crop models. A spatial platform, DSSAT-CSM based, developed in R programming language was applied to perform the simulation of maturity date and grain yield for durum wheat, common wheat and maize in each grid cell. Results, analyzed at the national and regional level, will be discussed.

  1. CARDIAD approach to system dominance with application to turbofan engine models. [Complex Acceptability Region for DIAgonal Dominance in multivariable systems analysis and design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schafer, R. M.; Sain, M. K.

    1980-01-01

    The paper presents the CARDIAD (complex acceptability region for diagonal dominance) method for achieving the diagonal dominance condition in the inverse Nyquist array approach to the analysis and design of multivariable systems in the frequency domain. A design example is given for a sixth order, 4-input, 4-output model of a turbofan engine.

  2. The stability of input structures in a supply-driven input-output model: A regional analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allison, T.

    1994-06-01

    Disruptions in the supply of strategic resources or other crucial factor inputs often present significant problems for planners and policymakers. The problem may be particularly significant at the regional level where higher levels of product specialization mean supply restrictions are more likely to affect leading regional industries. To maintain economic stability in the event of a supply restriction, regional planners may therefore need to evaluate the importance of market versus non-market systems for allocating the remaining supply of the disrupted resource to the region`s leading consuming industries. This paper reports on research that has attempted to show that large short term changes on the supply side do not lead to substantial changes in input coefficients and do not therefore mean the abandonment of the concept of the production function as has been suggested (Oosterhaven, 1988). The supply-driven model was tested for six sectors of the economy of Washington State and found to yield new input coefficients whose values were in most cases close approximations of their original values, even with substantial changes in supply. Average coefficient changes from a 50% output reduction in these six sectors were in the vast majority of cases (297 from a total of 315) less than +2.0% of their original values, excluding coefficient changes for the restricted input. Given these small changes, the most important issue for the validity of the supply-driven input-output model may therefore be the empirical question of the extent to which these coefficient changes are acceptable as being within the limits of approximation.

  3. New GMP Models for Caucasus Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorjiashvili, N.; Godoladze, T.; Tvaradze, N.; Tumanova, N.

    2014-12-01

    The Caucasus is a region of numerous natural hazards and ensuing disasters. Analysis of the losses due to past disasters indicates those most catastrophic in the region have historically been due to strong earthquakes. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. The most commonly used parameter for attenuation relation is peak ground acceleration because this parameter gives useful information for Seismic Hazard Assessment. Thus, many peak ground acceleration attenuation relations have been developed by different authors. However, a few attenuation relations were developed for Caucasus region: Ambraseys et al. (1996,2005) which were based on entire European region and they were not focused locally on Caucasus Region, Smit et.al.(2000) that was based on a small amount of acceleration data that really is not enough. Since 2003 construction of Georgian Digital Seismic Network has started with the help of number of International organizations, Projects and Private companies. In this study new GMP models are obtained based on new data from Georgian seismic network and also from neighboring countries. Estimation of models is obtained by classical, statistical way, regression analysis. Also site ground conditions are considered because the same earthquake recorded at the same distance may cause different damage according to ground conditions. Thus, this parameter is emphasized in the present study. Here it must be mentioned that in previous model which only one was done for Caucasus Region (Smit et. al., 2000) local conditions were not considered. Thus, it is an advantage of models from this study.

  4. Metallurgical source-contribution analysis of PM10 annual average concentration: A dispersion modeling approach in moravian-silesian region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Jančík

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is to present analysis of metallurgical industry contribution to annual average PM10 concentrations in Moravian-Silesian based on means of the air pollution modelling in accord with the Czech reference methodology SYMOS´97.

  5. Observed & Modeled Changes in the Onset of Spring: A Preliminary Comparative Analysis by Geographic Regions of the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enquist, C.

    2012-12-01

    Phenology, the study of seasonal life cycle events in plants and animals, is a well-recognized indicator of climate change impacts on people and nature. Models, experiments, and observational studies show changes in plant and animal phenology as a function of environmental change. Current research aims to improve our understanding of changes by enhancing existing models, analyzing observations, synthesizing previous research, and comparing outputs. Local to regional climatology is a critical driver of phenological variation of organisms across scales. Because plants respond to the cumulative effects of daily weather over an extended period, timing of life cycle events are effective integrators of climate data. One specific measure, leaf emergence, is particularly important because it often shows a strong response to temperature change, and is crucial for assessment of processes related to start and duration of the growing season. Schwartz et al. (2006) developed a suite of models (the "Spring Indices") linking plant development from historical data from leafing and flowering of cloned lilac and honeysuckle with basic climatic drivers to monitor changes related to the start of the spring growing season. These models can be generated at any location that has daily max-min temperature time series. The new version of these models is called the "Extended Spring Indices," or SI-x (Schwartz et al. in press). The SI-x model output (first leaf date and first bloom date) are produced similarly to the original models (SI-o), but do not incorporate accumulated chilling hours; rather energy accumulation starts for all stations on January 1. This change extends the locations SI model output can be generated into the sub-tropics, allowing full coverage of the conterminous USA. Both SI model versions are highly correlated, with mean bias and mean absolute differences around two days or less, and a similar bias and absolute errors when compared to cloned lilac data. To

  6. Flood evolution assessment and monitoring using hydrological modelling techniques: analysis of the inundation areas at a regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podhoranyi, M.; Kuchar, S.; Portero, A.

    2016-08-01

    The primary objective of this study is to present techniques that cover usage of a hydrodynamic model as the main tool for monitoring and assessment of flood events while focusing on modelling of inundation areas. We analyzed the 2010 flood event (14th May - 20th May) that occurred in the Moravian-Silesian region (Czech Republic). Under investigation were four main catchments: Opava, Odra, Olše and Ostravice. Four hydrodynamic models were created and implemented into the Floreon+ platform in order to map inundation areas that arose during the flood event. In order to study the dynamics of the water, we applied an unsteady flow simulation for the entire area (HEC-RAS 4.1). The inundation areas were monitored, evaluated and recorded semi-automatically by means of the Floreon+ platform. We focused on information about the extent and presence of the flood areas. The modeled flooded areas were verified by comparing them with real data from different sources (official reports, aerial photos and hydrological networks). The study confirmed that hydrodynamic modeling is a very useful tool for mapping and monitoring of inundation areas. Overall, our models detected 48 inundation areas during the 2010 flood event.

  7. THE ENVIRONMENT OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    Bechis Liviu; MOSCVICIOV, Andrei

    2012-01-01

    The paper presents the difference between the two concepts regionalism and regionalization. It also presents the three types of regionalism analysis depending on the dimension and the nature of the relations: regionalism at national level, transnational regionalism and international regionalism analysis.

  8. The analysis of large-scale turbulence characteristics in the Indonesian seas derived from a regional model based on the Princeton Ocean Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. O'Driscoll

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Turbulence characteristics in the Indonesian seas on the horizontal scale of order of 100 km were calculated with a regional model of the Indonesian seas circulation in the area based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM. As is well known, the POM incorporates the Mellor–Yamada turbulence closure scheme. The calculated characteristics are: twice the turbulence kinetic energy per unit mass, q2; the turbulence master scale, ℓ; mixing coefficients of momentum, KM; and temperature and salinity, KH; etc. The analyzed turbulence has been generated essentially by the shear of large-scale ocean currents and by the large-scale wind turbulence. We focused on the analysis of turbulence around important topographic features, such as the Lifamatola Sill, the North Sangihe Ridge, the Dewakang Sill, and the North and South Halmahera Sea Sills. In general, the structure of turbulence characteristics in these regions turned out to be similar. For this reason, we have carried out a detailed analysis of the Lifamatola Sill region because dynamically this region is very important and some estimates of mixing coefficients in this area are available.

    Briefly, the main results are as follows. The distribution of q2 is quite adequately reproduced by the model. To the north of the Lifamatola Sill (in the Maluku Sea and to the south of the Sill (in the Seram Sea, large values of q2 occur in the deep layer extending several hundred meters above the bottom. The observed increase of q2 near the very bottom is probably due to the increase of velocity shear and the corresponding shear production of q2 very close to the bottom. The turbulence master scale, ℓ, was found to be constant in the main depth of the ocean, while ℓ rapidly decreases close to the bottom, as one would expect. However, in deep profiles away from the sill, the

  9. Do regional climate models represent regional climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin

    2014-05-01

    When using climate change scenarios - either from global climate models or further downscaled - to assess localised real world impacts, one has to ensure that the local simulation indeed correctly represents the real world local climate. Representativeness has so far mainly been discussed as a scale issue: simulated meteorological variables in general represent grid box averages, whereas real weather is often expressed by means of point values. As a result, in particular simulated extreme values are not directly comparable with observed local extreme values. Here we argue that the issue of representativeness is more general. To illustrate this point, assume the following situations: first, the (GCM or RCM) simulated large scale weather, e.g., the mid-latitude storm track, might be systematically distorted compared to observed weather. If such a distortion at the synoptic scale is strong, the simulated local climate might be completely different from the observed. Second, the orography even of high resolution RCMs is only a coarse model of true orography. In particular in mountain ranges the simulated mesoscale flow might therefore considerably deviate from the observed flow, leading to systematically displaced local weather. In both cases, the simulated local climate does not represent observed local climate. Thus, representativeness also encompasses representing a particular location. We propose to measure this aspect of representativeness for RCMs driven with perfect boundary conditions as the correlation between observations and simulations at the inter-annual scale. In doing so, random variability generated by the RCMs is largely averaged out. As an example, we assess how well KNMIs RACMO2 RCM at 25km horizontal resolution represents winter precipitation in the gridded E-OBS data set over the European domain. At a chosen grid box, RCM precipitation might not be representative of observed precipitation, in particular in the rain shadow of major moutain ranges

  10. Principal component analysis and neurocomputing-based models for total ozone concentration over different urban regions of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyay, Goutami; Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Chakraborthy, Parthasarathi

    2012-07-01

    The present study deals with daily total ozone concentration time series over four metro cities of India namely Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai, and New Delhi in the multivariate environment. Using the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin measure, it is established that the data set under consideration are suitable for principal component analysis. Subsequently, by introducing rotated component matrix for the principal components, the predictors suitable for generating artificial neural network (ANN) for daily total ozone prediction are identified. The multicollinearity is removed in this way. Models of ANN in the form of multilayer perceptron trained through backpropagation learning are generated for all of the study zones, and the model outcomes are assessed statistically. Measuring various statistics like Pearson correlation coefficients, Willmott's indices, percentage errors of prediction, and mean absolute errors, it is observed that for Mumbai and Kolkata the proposed ANN model generates very good predictions. The results are supported by the linearly distributed coordinates in the scatterplots.

  11. A multi-model analysis of the resolution influence on precipitation climatology in the Gulf Stream region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xuelei; Huang, Bohua; Kirtman, Ben P.; Kinter, James L.; Chiu, Long S.

    2016-05-01

    Using climate simulations from coupled and uncoupled general circulation models, this study investigates the influence of horizontal resolution in both atmospheric and oceanic model components on the mean precipitation over the Gulf Stream (GS) region. For this purpose, three sets of model experiments are analyzed. The first two examine the effects of increasing horizontal resolution of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) gradually from 100 to 10 km under fixed oceanic settings. Specifically, the AGCM is either forced with prescribed observed sea surface temperature (SST) (the first case) or coupled to a non-eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model (OGCM) at a fixed horizontal resolution near 100 km (the second case). The third set of experiments examines the effects of the oceanic resolution with a pair of long-term simulations by another coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM), in which the OGCM is run respectively at non-eddy-resolving (100 km) and eddy-resolving (10 km) resolutions, while the AGCM resolution remains fixed at 50 km for both runs. In general, all simulations qualitatively reproduce the gross features of the mean GS precipitation and its annual cycle. At similar AGCM resolutions, the uncoupled models produce a GS rain band that is more realistic in both structure and strength compared to the coupled models with non-eddy-resolving oceans. This is because the prescribed observed SST better represents the gradient near the oceanic front than the non-eddy-resolving OGCMs simulate. An increase from the baseline AGCM resolution produces enhanced climatological GS precipitation, both large-scale and convective, with the latter more tightly confined to the oceanic front. The enhancement, however, is moderate and further increases in resolution achieves diminishing results. On the other hand, an increase in oceanic resolution from non-eddy-resolving to eddy resolving scheme results in more consistent simulations with

  12. Analysis of model sensitivity and predictive uncertainty of capture zones in the Espanola Basin regional aquifer, Northern New Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesselinov, V. V. (Velimir V.); Keating, E. H. (Elizabeth H.); Zyvoloski, G. A. (George Anthony)

    2002-01-01

    Predictions and their uncertainty are key aspects of any modeling effort. The prediction uncertainty can be significant when the predictions depend on uncertain system parameters. We analyze prediction uncertainties through constrained nonlinear second-order optimization of an inverse model. The optimized objective function is the weighted squared-difference between observed and simulated system quantities (flux and time-dependent head data). The constraints are defined by the maximization/minimization of the prediction within a given objective-function range. The method is applied in capture-zone analyses of groundwater-supply systems using a three-dimensional numerical model of the Espanola Basin aquifer. We use the finite-element simulator FEHM coupled with parameter-estimation/predictive-analysis code PEST. The model is run in parallel on a multi-processor supercomputer. We estimate sensitivity and uncertainty of model predictions such as capture-zone identification and travel times. While the methodology is extremely powerful, it is numerically intensive.

  13. Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Congbin; Wang, Shuyu; Xiong, Zhe; Gutowski, William J.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; McGregor, John L.; Sato, Yasuo; Kato, Hisashi; Kim, Jeong-Woo; Suh, Myoung-Seok

    2005-02-01

    Improving the simulation of regional climate change is one of the high-priority areas of climate study because regional information is needed for climate change impact assessments. Such information is especially important for the region covered by the East Asian monsoon where there is high variability in both space and time. To this end, the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (RMIP) for Asia has been established to evaluate and improve regional climate model (RCM) simulations of the monsoon climate. RMIP operates under joint support of the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), the Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START), the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and several projects of participating nations. The project currently involves 10 research groups from Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States, as well as scientists from India, Italy, Mongolia, North Korea, and Russia.RMIP has three simulation phases: March 1997-August 1998, which covers a full annual cycle and extremes in monsoon behavior; January 1989-December 1998, which examines simulated climatology; and a regional climate change scenario, involving nesting with a global model. This paper is a brief report of RMIP goals, implementation design, and some initial results from the first phase studies.

  14. Simwe model application on susceptibility analysis to linear erosion: a case study in Alto Douro wine region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Joana; Bateira, Carlos; Soares, Laura; Faria, Ana; Moura, Rui; Gonçalves, José

    2016-04-01

    The wine production in Alto Douro Wine Region - one of the world's oldest regulated and demarcated wine region - is based on a slope system organized in agricultural terraces once supported exclusively by dry stone walls. It has been undergoing the necessary changes for the introduction of technological innovations partially associated to the mechanization of vineyards work. In this sense, different forms of terrain framing have been implemented, namely the substitution of stone walls by earth embankments. This evolution raises a group of problems related to the hydric soil erosion and landscape preservation, since Alto Douro Wine Region is classified as UNESCO World Heritage Site since 2001. The study area is mostly occupied by vineyards planted in the agriculture terraces without continuous vegetation, the flow proceeds superficially influenced by the weak infiltration capacity and hydraulic conductivity. So, because of this conditioning factor the erosive features present non-significant depth, and the length thereof is limited essentially by the slope of the land, where was registered 64 gullies and 78 rills This paper focuses on the evaluation of susceptibility to linear erosion, through the application of SIMWE (SIMulated Water Erosion), (Mitas and Mitasova, 1998), using a digital elevation model, with pixel of one square meter of spatial resolution, created through detail aerial photographs, (side pixel of 50 cm), submitted to automatic stereo-correlation procedures in Agisoft PhotoScan software. The results provided by the model are compared with hydrological characteristics of the soil, (infiltration capacity, and hydraulic conductivity), soil texture, and soil structure parameters (identified by electrical resistivity measurement) where obtained from field monitoring. This approach demonstrates an association between the spatial distribution of erosive features with high values of soil saturation, and reduced water discharge (10-110 cm3/s), that are

  15. An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guel, Timur; Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal [Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institut, 5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland); Barreto, Leonardo [Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institut, 5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland); Energy Economics and Policy, Austrian Energy Agency, 1150 Vienna (Austria)

    2009-10-15

    This paper deals with the long-term prospects of alternative fuels in global personal transport. It aims at assessing key drivers and key bottlenecks for their deployment, focusing particularly on the role of biofuels and hydrogen in meeting climate policy objectives. The analysis is pursued using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM), a perfect foresight ''bottom-up'' model of the global energy system with a detailed representation of alternative fuel chains, linked to the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC). The analysis shows that biofuels are limited by the regional availability of low-cost biomass, but can be important for meeting mild climate policy targets. If policy-makers intend to pursue more stringent climate policy, then hydrogen becomes a competitive option. However, the analysis finds that the use of hydrogen in personal transport is restricted to very stringent climate policy, as only such policy provides enough incentive to build up the required delivery infrastructure. An analysis of costs additionally shows that ''keeping the hydrogen option open'' does not take considerable investments compared to the investment needs in the power sector within the next decades, but allows the use of hydrogen for the pursuit of stringent climate policy in the second half of the century. (author)

  16. Analysis of high-resolution simulations for the Black Forest region from a point of view of tourism climatology - a comparison between two regional climate models (REMO and CLM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2011-03-01

    An analysis of climate simulations from a point of view of tourism climatology based on two regional climate models, namely REMO and CLM, was performed for a regional domain in the southwest of Germany, the Black Forest region, for two time frames, 1971-2000 that represents the twentieth century climate and 2021-2050 that represents the future climate. In that context, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and B1 are used. The analysis focuses on human-biometeorological and applied climatologic issues, especially for tourism purposes - that means parameters belonging to thermal (physiologically equivalent temperature, PET), physical (precipitation, snow, wind), and aesthetic (fog, cloud cover) facets of climate in tourism. In general, both models reveal similar trends, but differ in their extent. The trend of thermal comfort is contradicting: it tends to decrease in REMO, while it shows a slight increase in CLM. Moreover, REMO reveals a wider range of future climate trends than CLM, especially for sunshine, dry days, and heat stress. Both models are driven by the same global coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Because both models are not able to resolve meso- and micro-scale processes such as cloud microphysics, differences between model results and discrepancies in the development of even those parameters (e.g., cloud formation and cover) are due to different model parameterization and formulation. Climatic changes expected by 2050 are small compared to 2100, but may have major impacts on tourism as for example, snow cover and its duration are highly vulnerable to a warmer climate directly affecting tourism in winter. Beyond indirect impacts are of high relevance as they influence tourism as well. Thus, changes in climate, natural environment, demography, tourists' demands, among other things affect economy in general. The analysis of the CLM results and its comparison with the REMO results complete the analysis performed

  17. Analysis of parameter uncertainty in hydrological and sediment modeling using GLUE method: a case study of SWAT model applied to Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Y. Shen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The calibration of hydrologic models is a worldwide challenge due to the uncertainty involved in the large number of parameters. The difficulty even increases in a region with high seasonal variation of precipitation, where the results exhibit high heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. In this study, the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE method was combined with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT to quantify the parameter uncertainty of the stream flow and sediment simulation in the Daning River Watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRA, China. Based on this study, only a few parameters affected the final simulation output significantly. The results showed that sediment simulation presented greater uncertainty than stream flow, and uncertainty was even greater in high precipitation conditions (from May to September than during the dry season. The main uncertainty sources of stream flow came from the catchment process while a channel process impacts the sediment simulation greatly. It should be noted that identifiable parameters such as CANMX, ALPHA_BNK, SOL_K could be obtained with an optimal parameter range using calibration method. However, equifinality was also observed in hydrologic modeling in TGRA. This study demonstrated that care must be taken when calibrating the SWAT model with non-identifiable parameters because these may lead to equifinality of the parameter values. It was anticipated this study would provide useful information for hydrology modeling related to policy development in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRA and other similar areas.

  18. Physicochemical analysis of clays and ceramics of the regional state of Calakmul: production models, distribution and consumption; Analisis fisicoquimico de arcillas y ceramicos del estado regional de Calakmul: modelos de produccion, distribucion y consumo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dominguez C, M.R.; Folan, W.J. [Centro de Investigaciones Historicas y Sociales, Universidad Autonoma de Campeche, Campeche (Mexico); Espinosa P, M.E. [ININ, 52045 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico); Rodriguez L, V. [CUV, BUAP, 72000 Puebla (Mexico)

    2005-07-01

    This work presents the final results of the research project 'Sources, production and consumption of ceramics in the regional state of Calakmul: a socio-political approach', with the proposal of models of production and ceramic specialization as well as of distribution and consumption of these goods in the territory that occupied the regional state of Calakmul, with base in the typological analysis of the ceramics of Calakmul and 72 sites registered in its environs as well as in comparative studies with ceramics of other greater sites near Calakmul and complemented with the application of analytical techniques in the study of clays and sherds diagnoses of the Mayan Classic period. These models were proposed also, according to a socio-political approach based on the social and political relations that Calakmul maintained with other political entities of diverse ranks derived from the obtained epigraphic evidences. (Author)

  19. Large-scale dynamical influence of a gravity wave generated over the Antarctic Peninsula – regional modelling and budget analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOEL Arnault

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The case study of a mountain wave triggered by the Antarctic Peninsula on 6 October 2005, which has already been documented in the literature, is chosen here to quantify the associated gravity wave forcing on the large-scale flow, with a budget analysis of the horizontal wind components and horizontal kinetic energy. In particular, a numerical simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is compared to a control simulation with flat orography to separate the contribution of the mountain wave from that of other synoptic processes of non-orographic origin. The so-called differential budgets of horizontal wind components and horizontal kinetic energy (after subtracting the results from the simulation without orography are then averaged horizontally and vertically in the inner domain of the simulation to quantify the mountain wave dynamical influence at this scale. This allows for a quantitative analysis of the simulated mountain wave's dynamical influence, including the orographically induced pressure drag, the counterbalancing wave-induced vertical transport of momentum from the flow aloft, the momentum and energy exchanges with the outer flow at the lateral and upper boundaries, the effect of turbulent mixing, the dynamics associated with geostrophic re-adjustment of the inner flow, the deceleration of the inner flow, the secondary generation of an inertia–gravity wave and the so-called baroclinic conversion of energy between potential energy and kinetic energy.

  20. Cowichan Valley energy mapping and modelling. Report 4 - Analysis of opportunity costs and issues related to regional energy resilience. Final report. [Vancouver Island, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-06-15

    The driving force behind the Integrated Energy Mapping and Analysis project was the identification and analysis of a suite of pathways that the Cowichan Valley Regional District (CVRD) can utilise to increase its energy resilience, as well as reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions, with a primary focus on the residential sector. Mapping and analysis undertaken will support provincial energy and GHG reduction targets, and the suite of pathways outlined will address a CVRD internal target that calls for 75% of the region's energy within the residential sector to come from locally sourced renewables by 2050. The target has been developed as a mechanism to meet resilience and climate action target. The maps and findings produced are to be integrated as part of a regional policy framework currently under development. Based on the outputs from the first three tasks, a suite of coherent pathways towards the overall target of 75% residential local energy consumption was created, and the costs and benefits for the region were calculated. This was undertaken via a scenario analysis which also highlighted the risks and robustness of the different options within the pathways. In addition to a direct economic comparison between the different pathways, more qualitative issues were described, including potential local employment, environmental benefits and disadvantages, etc. The main tool utilised in this analysis was a tailor made Excel energy model that includes mechanisms for analysing improvements in the CVRD energy system down to an area level, for example renewable energy in residential buildings, renewable energy generation, and the effects of energy efficiency improvements. For the industrial, commercial, and transport sectors, simple and generic forecasts and input possibilities were included in the model. The Excel 'technology cost' and 'energy' models are accompanied with a user manual so that planners within the CVRD can become well

  1. Siberian Regional Identity in the Context of Historical Consciousness (Content Analysis of Tomsk Regional Media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A V Bocharov

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a model to study the Siberian regional identity in the context of historical consciousness, as well as the results of its practical application in the content analysis of the publications by the Tomsk regional media. On the basis of the content analysis procedures the author demonstrates how, through historical memory, the regional identity is formed and manifested in the regional media in various spheres of society.

  2. Analysis of parameter uncertainty in hydrological modeling using GLUE method: a case study of SWAT model applied to Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Y. Shen

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The calibration of hydrologic models is a worldwide difficulty due to the uncertainty involved in the large number of parameters. The difficulty even increases in the region with high seasonal variation of precipitation, where the results exhibit high heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. In this study, the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE method was combined with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT to quantify the parameter uncertainty of the stream flow and sediment simulation in the Daning River Watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRA, China. Based on this study, only a few parameters affected the final simulation output significantly. The results showed that sediment simulation presented greater uncertainty than stream flow, and uncertainty even increased in high precipitation condition than dry season. The main uncertainty sources of stream flow mainly came from the catchment process while channel process impacts the sediment simulation greatly. It should be noted that identifiable parameters such as CANMX, ALPHA_BNK, SOL_K could be obtained optimal parameter range using calibration method. However, equifinality was also observed in hydrologic modeling in TGRA. This paper demonstrated that care must be taken when calibrating the SWAT with non-identifiable parameters as these may lead to equifinality of the parameter values. It is anticipated this study would provide useful information for hydrology modeling related to policy development in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRA and other similar areas.

  3. Non-stationary analysis of dry spells in monsoon season of Senegal River Basin using data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giraldo Osorio, J. D.; García Galiano, S. G.

    2012-07-01

    SummaryThe Senegal River Basin, located in West Africa, has been affected by several droughts since the end of the 1960s. In its valley, which is densely populated and highly vulnerable to climate variability and water availability, agricultural activities provide the livelihood for thousands of people. Increasing the knowledge about plausible trends of drought events will allow to improve the adaptation and mitigation measures in order to build "adaptive capacity" to climate change in West Africa. An innovative methodology for the non-stationary analysis of droughts events, which allows the prediction of regional trends associated to several return periods, is presented. The analyses were based on Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provided by the European ENSEMBLES project for West Africa, together with observed data. A non-stationary behaviour of the annual series of maximum length of dry spells (AMDSL) in the monsoon season is reflected in temporal changes in mean and variance. The non-stationary nature of hydrometeorological series, due to climate change and anthropogenic activities, is the main criticism to traditional frequency analysis. Therefore, in this paper, the modelling tool GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape), is applied to develop regional probability density functions (pdfs) fitted to AMDSL series for the monsoon season in the Senegal River Basin. The skills of RCMs in the representation of maximum length of dry spells observed for the period 1970-1990, are evaluated considering observed data. Based on the results obtained, a first selection of the RCMs with which to apply GAMLSS to the AMDSL series identified, for the time period 1970-2050, is made. The results of GAMLSS analysis exhibit divergent trends, with different value ranges for parameters of probability distributions being detected. Therefore, in the second stage of the paper, regional pdfs are constructed using bootstrapping distributions based on probabilistic

  4. Topological and geometrical analysis of a low-dimensional chaotic model obtained for the dynamics of cereal crops cycles observed from satellite in semi-arid region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangiarotti, Sylvain

    2014-05-01

    A low-dimensional chaotic model was recently obtained for the dynamics of cereal crops cycles in semi-arid region [1]. This model was obtained from one single time series of vegetation index measured from space. The global modeling approach [2] was used based on powerful algorithms recently developed for this purpose [3]. The resulting model could be validated by comparing its predictability (a data assimilation scheme was used for this purpose) with a statistical prediction approach based on the search of analogous states in the phase space [4]. The cereal crops model exhibits a weakly dissipative chaos (DKY = 2.68) and a toroidal-like structure. At present, quite few cases of such chaos are known and these are exclusively theoretical. The first case was introduced by Lorenz in 1984 to model the global circulation dynamics [5], which attractor's structure is remained poorly understood. Indeed, one very powerful way to characterize low-dimensional chaos is based on the topological analysis of the attractors' flow [6]. Unfortunately, such approach does not apply to weakly dissipative chaos. In this work, a color tracer method is introduced and used to perform a complete topological analysis of both the Lorenz-84 system and the cereal crops model. The usual stretching and squeezing mechanisms are easily detected in the attractors' structure. A stretching taking place in the globally contracting direction of the flow is also found in both attractors. Such stretching is unexpected and was not reported previously. The analysis also confirms the toroidal type of chaos and allows producing both the skeleton and algebraic descriptions of the two attractors. Their comparison shows that the cereal crops attractor is a new attractor. References [1] Mangiarotti S., Drapreau L., Letellier C., 2014. Two chaotic global models for cereal crops cycles observed from satellite in Northern Morocco. revision submitted. [2] Letellier C., Aguirre L.A., Freitas U.S., 2009. Frequently

  5. An Investigation into Eco-tourism Potential of the Alamut Region of Iran using SWOT Analysis Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keivan Saeb

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The present research examines the potentials and limitations of tourism in the Alamut region, offering suggestions and strategies for the promotion of tourism in this region. Research methodology adopted in this study is based on analytical-descriptive approach. To formulate and establish a sound research theoretical framework as well as to review the research literature, a questionnaire tooling method was used and the results were analyzed using the SWOT technique. While introducing the tourist attraction in the province, the influential factors in the region categorized into the four headings of: strengths; weaknesses; opportunities and threats were included in our considerations and strategies or guidelines for a sustained tourism development in the region provided. The research findings, taking into consideration the present status of the Alamut region, indicate that despite the fact that the region houses a great number of ancient sites and monuments and enjoys a high level of bio-diversity resources, making it the ideal candidate to be transformed into an exemplary tourist attraction pole, it is faced with major obstacles to reach this goal. In order to remove some of the problems of the region, strategic factors were analyzed and priorities delineated. The findings indicated that a focused attention and description of the values of the region is alleviated through the holdings of seminars or meeting and conferences as well as paving the way to give cultural knowledge and understanding to prevent inflicting widespread damages to the environment; to establish hotels; to provide welfare facilities and introduce natural resources as well as historical sites and their ancient heritage.

  6. Evaluation of regional and local atmospheric dispersion models for the analysis of traffic-related air pollution in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallah-Shorshani, Masoud; Shekarrizfard, Maryam; Hatzopoulou, Marianne

    2017-10-01

    Dispersion of road transport emissions in urban metropolitan areas is typically simulated using Gaussian models that ignore the turbulence and drag induced by buildings, which are especially relevant for areas with dense downtown cores. To consider the effect of buildings, street canyon models are used but often at the level of single urban corridors and small road networks. In this paper, we compare and validate two dispersion models with widely varying algorithms, across a modelling domain consisting of the City of Montreal, Canada accounting for emissions of more 40,000 roads. The first dispersion model is based on flow decomposition into the urban canopy sub-flow as well as overlying airflow. It takes into account the specific height and geometry of buildings along each road. The second model is a Gaussian puff dispersion model, which handles complex terrain and incorporates three-dimensional meteorology, but accounts for buildings only through variations in the initial vertical mixing coefficient. Validation against surface observations indicated that both models under-predicted measured concentrations. Average weekly exposure surfaces derived from both models were found to be reasonably correlated (r = 0.8) although the Gaussian dispersion model tended to underestimate concentrations around the roadways compared to the street canyon model. In addition, both models were used to estimate exposures of a representative sample of the Montreal population composed of 1319 individuals. Large differences were noted whereby exposures derived from the Gaussian puff model were significantly lower than exposures derived from the street canyon model, an expected result considering the concentration of population around roadways. These differences have large implications for the analyses of health effects associated with NO2 exposure.

  7. 3-D modelling and analysis of Dst C-responses in the North Pacific Ocean region, revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuvshinov, A.; Utada, H.; Avdeev, D.;

    2005-01-01

    During the last decade a number of one-dimensional (1-D) conductivity profiles have been constructed for the upper and mid-mantle of the North Pacific Ocean region. These profiles differ significantly, and from our point of view it is still unclear which profile is the best candidate for the uppe...

  8. Users guide to REGIONAL-1: a regional assessment model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, W.E.; Eadie, W.J.; Powell, D.C.

    1979-09-01

    A guide was prepared to allow a user to run the PNL long-range transport model, REGIONAL 1. REGIONAL 1 is a computer model set up to run atmospheric assessments on a regional basis. The model has the capability of being run in three modes for a single time period. The three modes are: (1) no deposition, (2) dry deposition, (3) wet and dry deposition. The guide provides the physical and mathematical basis used in the model for calculating transport, diffusion, and deposition for all three modes. Also the guide includes a program listing with an explanation of the listings and an example in the form of a short-term assessment for 48 hours. The purpose of the example is to allow a person who has past experience with programming and meteorology to operate the assessment model and compare his results with the guide results. This comparison will assure the user that the program is operating in a proper fashion.

  9. A novel porcine model of implant associated osteomyelitis: a comprehensive analysis of local, regional and systemic response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Louise Kruse; Koch, Janne; Dich-Jorgensen, Kirstine;

    2017-01-01

    Pigs are favorable experimental animals for infectious diseases in humans. However, implant associated osteomyelitis (IAO) models in pigs have only been evaluated using high-inoculum infection (>108 CFU) models in 1975 and 1993. Therefore, the aim of this paper was to present a new low inoculum...

  10. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Samoa

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at approximately 3-km resolution. While considerable...

  11. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): CNMI

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) at approximately...

  12. A Multi-regional CGE Model for China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Na; Shi, Minjun; Wang, Fei

    With the development of China’s economy, the regional diversity and interregional economic linkage have become more and more remarkable and been two important factors to study China’s national and regional economy. Based on the multi-regional input-output table for China, this paper develops a multi-regional CGE (MRCGE) model for China that is expected to provide a useful tool for analysis of regional economy and regional policies. This model depicts regional diversities on scale and structure and interregional economic linkages, i.e. commodity flow, labor flow and capital flow. As an application of this model, this paper designs to increase the investment for Northwestern region to reveal the important effect that comes from the regional differences and linkages.

  13. Applying waste logistics modeling to regional planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holter, G.M.; Khawaja, A.; Shaver, S.R.; Peterson, K.L.

    1995-05-01

    Waste logistics modeling is a powerful analytical technique that can be used for effective planning of future solid waste storage, treatment, and disposal activities. Proper waste management is essential for preventing unacceptable environmental degradation from ongoing operations, and is also a critical part of any environmental remediation activity. Logistics modeling allows for analysis of alternate scenarios for future waste flowrates and routings, facility schedules, and processing or handling capacities. Such analyses provide an increased understanding of the critical needs for waste storage, treatment, transport, and disposal while there is still adequate lead time to plan accordingly. They also provide a basis for determining the sensitivity of these critical needs to the various system parameters. This paper discusses the application of waste logistics modeling concepts to regional planning. In addition to ongoing efforts to aid in planning for a large industrial complex, the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is currently involved in implementing waste logistics modeling as part of the planning process for material recovery and recycling within a multi-city region in the western US.

  14. Modeling of regional warehouse network generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popov Pavel Vladimirovich

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available One of the factors that has a significant impact on the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation’s regions is the logistics infrastructure. It provides integrated transportation and distribution service of material flows. One of the main elements of logistics infrastructure is a storage infrastructure, which includes distribution center, distribution-and-sortout and sortout warehouses. It is the most expedient to place distribution center in the vicinity of the regional center. One of the tasks of the distribution network creation within the regions of the Russian Federation is to determine the location, capacity and number of stores. When determining regional network location of general purpose warehouses methodological approaches to solving the problems of location of production and non-production can be used which depend on various economic factors. The mathematical models for solving relevant problems are the deployment models. However, the existing models focus on the dimensionless power storage. The purpose of the given work is to develop a model to determine the optimal location of general-purpose warehouses on the Russian Federation area. At the first stage of the work, the authors assess the main economic indicators influencing the choice of the location of general purpose warehouses. An algorithm for solving the first stage, based on ABC, discriminant and cluster analysis were proposed by the authors in earlier papers. At the second stage the specific locations of general purpose warehouses and their power is chosen to provide the cost minimization for the construction and subsequent maintenance of warehouses and transportation heterogeneous products. In order to solve this problem the authors developed a mathematical model that takes into account the possibility of delivery in heterogeneous goods from suppliers and manufacturers in the distribution and storage sorting with specified set of capacities. The model allows

  15. Models for Sustainable Regional Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China.......The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China....

  16. Models for Sustainable Regional Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China.......The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China....

  17. Regions in Energy Market Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Short, W.

    2007-02-01

    This report explores the different options for spatial resolution of an energy market model--and the advantages and disadvantages of models with fine spatial resolution. It examines different options for capturing spatial variations, considers the tradeoffs between them, and presents a few examples from one particular model that has been run at different levels of spatial resolution.

  18. Regions in Energy Market Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2009-01-18

    This report explores the different options for spatial resolution of an energy market model and the advantages and disadvantages of models with fine spatial resolution. It examines different options for capturing spatial variations, considers the tradeoffs between them, and presents a few examples from one particular model that has been run at different levels of spatial resolution.

  19. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    OpenAIRE

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simula...

  20. [Morphological analysis of the hippocampal region associated with an innate behaviour task in the transgenic mouse model (3xTg-AD) for Alzheimer disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orta-Salazar, E; Feria-Velasco, A; Medina-Aguirre, G I; Díaz-Cintra, S

    2013-10-01

    Different animal models for Alzheimer disease (AD) have been designed to support the hypothesis that the neurodegeneration (loss of neurons and synapses with reactive gliosis) associated with Aβ and tau deposition in these models is similar to that in the human brain. These alterations produce functional changes beginning with decreased ability to carry out daily and social life activities, memory loss, and neuropsychiatric disorders in general. Neuronal alteration plays an important role in early stages of the disease, especially in the CA1 area of hippocampus in both human and animal models. Two groups (WT and 3xTg-AD) of 11-month-old female mice were used in a behavioural analysis (nest building) and a morphometric analysis of the CA1 region of the dorsal hippocampus. The 3xTg-AD mice showed a 50% reduction in nest quality associated with a significant increase in damaged neurons in the CA1 hippocampal area (26%±6%, P<.05) compared to the WT group. The decreased ability to carry out activities of daily living (humans) or nest building (3xTg-AD mice) is related to the neuronal alterations observed in AD. These alterations are controlled by the hippocampus. Post-mortem analyses of the human hippocampus, and the CA1 region in 3xTg-AD mice, show that these areas are associated with alterations in the deposition of Aβ and tau proteins, which start accumulating in the early stages of AD. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  1. A regional scale modeling analysis of aerosol and trace gas distributions over the eastern Pacific during the INTEX-B field campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Adhikary

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The Sulfur Transport and dEposition Model (STEM is applied to the analysis of observations obtained during the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B (INTEX-B, conducted over the eastern Pacific Ocean during spring 2006. Predicted trace gas and aerosol distributions over the Pacific are presented and discussed in terms of transport and source region contributions. Trace species distributions show a strong west (high to east (low gradient, with the bulk of the pollutant transport over the central Pacific occurring between ~20° N and 50° N in the 2–6 km altitude range. These distributions are evaluated in the eastern Pacific by comparison with the NASA DC-8 and NSF/NCAR C-130 airborne measurements along with observations from the Mt. Bachelor (MBO surface site. Thirty different meteorological, trace gas and aerosol parameters are compared. In general the meteorological fields are better predicted than gas phase species, which in turn are better predicted than aerosol quantities. PAN is found to be significantly overpredicted over the eastern Pacific, which is attributed to uncertainties in the chemical reaction mechanisms used in current atmospheric chemistry models in general and to the specifically high PAN production in the SAPRC-99 mechanism used in the regional model. A systematic underprediction of the elevated sulfate layer in the eastern Pacific observed by the C-130 is another issue that is identified and discussed. Results from source region tagged CO simulations are used to estimate how the different source regions around the Pacific contribute to the trace gas species distributions. During this period the largest contributions were from China and from fires in South/Southeast and North Asia. For the C-130 flights, which operated off the coast of the Northwest US, the regional CO contributions range as follows: China (35%, South/Southeast Asia fires (35%, North America anthropogenic (20%, and North Asia fires (10

  2. NAVO NCOM Relocatable Model: Fukushima Regional Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Preliminary NCOM Relocatable 1km forecast model for Fukushima Region. USERS ARE REMINDED TO USE THE FUKUSHIMA 1KM NCOM DATA WITH CAUTION. THE MODEL WAS INITIATED ON...

  3. Regional geothermal 3D modelling in Denmark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulsen, S. E.; Balling, N.; Bording, T. S.; Nielsen, S. B.

    2012-04-01

    In the pursuit of sustainable and low carbon emission energy sources, increased global attention has been given to the exploration and exploitation of geothermal resources within recent decades. In 2009 a national multi-disciplinary geothermal research project was established. As a significant part of this project, 3D temperature modelling is to be carried out, with special emphasis on temperatures of potential geothermal reservoirs in the Danish area. The Danish subsurface encompasses low enthalpy geothermal reservoirs of mainly Triassic and Jurassic age. Geothermal plants at Amager (Copenhagen) and Thisted (Northern Jutland) have the capacity of supplying the district heating network with up to 14 MW and 7 MW, respectively, by withdrawing warm pore water from the Gassum (Lower Jurassic/Upper Triassic) and Bunter (Lower Triassic) sandstone reservoirs, respectively. Explorative studies of the subsurface temperature regime typically are based on a combination of observations and modelling. In this study, the open-source groundwater modelling code MODFLOW is modified to simulate the subsurface temperature distribution in three dimensions by taking advantage of the mathematical similarity between saturated groundwater flow (Darcy flow) and heat conduction. A numerical model of the subsurface geology in Denmark is built and parameterized from lithological information derived from joint interpretation of seismic surveys and borehole information. Boundary conditions are constructed from knowledge about the heat flow from the Earth's interior and the shallow ground temperature. Matrix thermal conductivities have been estimated from analysis of high-resolution temperature logs measured in deep wells and porosity-depth relations are included using interpreted main lithologies. The model takes into account the dependency of temperature and pressure on thermal conductivity. Moreover, a transient model based correction of the paleoclimatic thermal disturbance caused by the

  4. Simulation model analysis of the most promising geological sequestration formation candidates in the Rocky Mountain region, USA, with focus on uncertainty assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Si-Yong [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Zaluski, Wade [Schlumberger Carbon Services, Houston, TX (United States); Will, Robert [Schlumberger Carbon Services, Houston, TX (United States); Eisinger, Chris [Colorado Geological Survey, Golden, CO (United States); Matthews, Vince [Colorado Geological Survey, Golden, CO (United States); McPherson, Brian [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    2013-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to report results of reservoir model simulation analyses for forecasting subsurface CO2 storage capacity estimation for the most promising formations in the Rocky Mountain region of the USA. A particular emphasis of this project was to assess uncertainty of the simulation-based forecasts. Results illustrate how local-scale data, including well information, number of wells, and location of wells, affect storage capacity estimates and what degree of well density (number of wells over a fixed area) may be required to estimate capacity within a specified degree of confidence. A major outcome of this work was development of a new workflow of simulation analysis, accommodating the addition of “random pseudo wells” to represent virtual characterization wells.

  5. Simulation model analysis of the most promising geological sequestration formation candidates in the Rocky Mountain region, USA, with focus on uncertainty assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Si-Yong [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Zaluski, Wade [Schlumberger Carbon Services, Houston, TX (United States); Will, Robert [Schlumberger Carbon Services, Houston, TX (United States); Eisinger, Chris [Colorado Geological Survey, Golden, CO (United States); Matthews, Vince [Colorado Geological Survey, Golden, CO (United States); McPherson, Brian [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    2013-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to report results of reservoir model simulation analyses for forecasting subsurface CO2 storage capacity estimation for the most promising formations in the Rocky Mountain region of the USA. A particular emphasis of this project was to assess uncertainty of the simulation-based forecasts. Results illustrate how local-scale data, including well information, number of wells, and location of wells, affect storage capacity estimates and what degree of well density (number of wells over a fixed area) may be required to estimate capacity within a specified degree of confidence. A major outcome of this work was development of a new workflow of simulation analysis, accommodating the addition of “random pseudo wells” to represent virtual characterization wells.

  6. Regional fuzzy chain model for evapotranspiration estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güçlü, Yavuz Selim; Subyani, Ali M.; Şen, Zekai

    2017-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the main hydrological cycle components that has extreme importance for water resources management and agriculture especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, regional ET estimation models based on the fuzzy logic (FL) principles are suggested, where the first stage includes the ET calculation via Penman-Monteith equation, which produces reliable results. In the second phase, ET estimations are produced according to the conventional FL inference system model. In this paper, regional fuzzy model (RFM) and regional fuzzy chain model (RFCM) are proposed through the use of adjacent stations' data in order to fill the missing ones. The application of the two models produces reliable and satisfactory results for mountainous and sea region locations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, but comparatively RFCM estimations have more accuracy. In general, the mean absolute percentage error is less than 10%, which is acceptable in practical applications.

  7. Analysis of regional climate strategies in the Barents region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Himanen, S.; Inkeroeinen, J.; Latola, K.; Vaisanen, T.; Alasaarela, E.

    2012-11-15

    Climate change is a global phenomenon with especially harsh effects on the Arctic and northern regions. The Arctic's average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as elsewhere in the past few decades. Since 1966, the Arctic land area covered by snow in early summer has shrunk by almost a fifth. The Barents Region consists of the northern parts of Norway, Sweden, Finland and Russia (i.e. the European part of Russia). Climate change will cause serious impacts in the Barents Region because of its higher density of population living under harsh climatic conditions, thus setting it apart from other Arctic areas. In many cases, economic activities, like tourism, rely on certain weather conditions. For this reason, climate change and adaptation to it is of special urgency for the region. Regional climate change strategies are important tools for addressing mitigation and adaptation to climate change as they can be used to consolidate the efforts of different stakeholders of the public and private sectors. Regional strategies can be important factors in achieving the national and international goals. The study evaluated how the national climate change goals were implemented in the regional and local strategies and programmes in northern Finland. The specific goal was to describe the processes by which the regional strategies were prepared and implemented, and how the work was expanded to include the whole of northern Finland. Finally, the Finnish preparatory processes were compared to case examples of processes for preparing climate change strategies elsewhere in the Barents Region. This analysis provides examples of good practices in preparing a climate change strategy and implementing it. (orig.)

  8. Geomorphological analysis, monitoring and modeling of large rock avalanches in northern Chile (Iquique area) for regional hazard assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yugsi Molina, F. X.; Hermanns, R. L.; Crosta, G. B.; Dehls, J.; Sosio, R.; Sepúlveda, S. A.

    2012-04-01

    mapped characterized by well defined lateral levees and clear internal morphological features (ridges and furrows, hummocks). Rock avalanche run out simulations have been carried out to back analyze the sites using DAN 3D and a 3 m pixel resolution digital elevation model (DEM) obtained from stereoscopic Geoeye-1 images to assess parameters that controlled propagation mechanism and impact area extent of the events. The older lobes were dated by radiocarbon methods. Results indicate ages higher than 40,000 yr BP for the northern site. The second site could only be dated relatively with an underlying terrace that resulted older than the age limit of radiocarbon dating (43.500 yr BP). All the deposits are positioned well above (40-70 m) the present sea level rise, and at the reported uplift rates for the area, they could be associated to events older than some hundreds of thousand years. A more complete record of the failure history of the sites will be obtained when results of cosmogenic nuclides (CN) and luminescence dating will become available later this year. Several other smaller rock avalanches have been mapped in the study area. Satellite-based radar interferometry (InSAR) was performed using ERS-1 and ERS-2 scenes from 1995-2000 as well as ENVISAT ASAR scenes from 2004-2010. Both datasets show only small deformation in the area. This deformation includes sliding of small surficial slope deposits and subsidence apparently due to local groundwater withdrawal. No deformation of bedrock along the escarpment edge is observed. Results show that only major rock avalanches could reach the main access roads to Iquique and currently no large slope segments show signs of large displacement rates. Moreover, there is no strong correlation between M > 8 earthquakes return periods and age of the dated deposits, which implies that large rock avalanches could have been triggered by other factors. Hence, from a hazard and risk perspective, it is unlikely that large rock avalanches

  9. Process analysis of regional ozone formation over the Yangtze River Delta, China using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Li

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available A high O3 episode was detected in urban Shanghai, a typical city in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD region in August 2010. The CMAQ integrated process rate method is applied to account for the contribution of different atmospheric processes during the high pollution episode. The analysis shows that the maximum concentration of ozone occurs due to transport phenomena, including vertical diffusion and horizontal advective transport. Gas-phase chemistry producing O3 mainly occurs at the height of 300–1500 m, causing a strong vertical O3 transport from upper levels to the surface layer. The gas-phase chemistry is an important sink for O3 in the surface layer, coupled with dry deposition. Cloud processes may contribute slightly to the increase of O3 due to convective clouds or to the decrease of O3 due to scavenging. The horizontal diffusion and heterogeneous chemistry contributions are negligible during the whole episode. Modeling results show that the O3 pollution characteristics among the different cities in the YRD region have both similarities and differences. During the buildup period, the O3 starts to appear in the city regions of the YRD and is then transported to the surrounding areas under the prevailing wind conditions. The O3 production from photochemical reaction in Shanghai and the surrounding area is most significant, due to the high emission intensity in the large city; this ozone is then transported out to sea by the westerly wind flow, and later diffuses to rural areas like Chongming island, Wuxi and even to Nanjing. The O3 concentrations start to decrease in the cities after sunset, due to titration of the NO emissions, but ozone can still be transported and maintain a significant concentration in rural areas and even regions outside the YRD region, where the NO emissions are very small.

  10. FORMATION OF A INNOVATION REGIONAL CLUSTER MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Merzlikina

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. As a result of investigation of science and methodical approaches related problems of building and development of innovation clusters there were some issues in functional assignments of innovation and production clusters. Because of those issues, article’s authors differ conceptions of innovation cluster and production cluster, as they explain notion of innovation-production cluster. The main goal of this article is to reveal existing organizational issues in cluster building and its successful development. Based on regional clusters building analysis carried out there was typical practical structure of cluster members interaction revealed. This structure also have its cons, as following: absence cluster orientation to marketing environment, lack of members’ prolonged relations’ building and development system, along with ineffective management of information, financial and material streams within cluster, narrow competence difference and responsibility zones between cluster members, lack of transparence of cluster’s action, low environment changes adaptivity, hard to use cluster members’ intellectual property, and commercialization of hi-tech products. When all those issues listed above come together, it reduces life activity of existing models of innovative cluster-building along with practical opportunity of cluster realization. Because of that, authors offer an upgraded innovative-productive cluster building model with more efficient business processes management system, which includes advanced innovative cluster structure, competence matrix and subcluster responsibility zone. Suggested model differs from other ones by using unified innovative product development control center, which also controls production and marketing realization.

  11. Modeling global and regional energy futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rethinaraj, T. S. Gopi

    A rigorous econometric calibration of a model of energy consumption is presented using a comprehensive time series database on energy consumption and other socioeconomic indicators. The future of nuclear power in the evolving distribution of various energy sources is also examined. An important consideration for the long-term future of nuclear power concerns the rate of decline of the fraction of energy that comes from coal, which has historically declined on a global basis about linearly as a function of the cumulative use of coal. The use of fluid fossil fuels is also expected to eventually decline as the more readily extractable deposits are depleted. The investigation here is restricted to examining a comparatively simple model of the dynamics of competition between nuclear and other competing energy sources. Using a defined tropical/temperate disaggregation of the world, region-specific modeling results are presented for population growth, GDP growth, energy use, and carbon use compatible with a gradual transition to energy sustainability. Results for the fractions of energy use from various sources by grouping nine commercial primary energy sources into pairs of competing fuel categories are presented in combination with the idea of experiential learning and resource depletion. Analysis based on this division provides estimates for future evolution of the fractional shares, annual use rates, cumulative use of individual energy sources, and the economic attractiveness of spent nuclear fuel reprocessing. This unified approach helps to conceptualize and understand the dynamics of evolution of importance of various energy resources over time.

  12. Kinematic Analysis of Fold-Thrust-Belt Using Integrated Analogue Sandbox Modeling and 3D Palinspatic Reconstructions in Babar-Selaru Area, Banda Sea Region, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapiie, Benyamin; Hadiana, Meli; Kurniawan, Ade; Daniel, Dicky; Danio, Harya; Fujimoto, Masamichi; Ohara, Michio; Alam Perdana, Lisnanda; Saputra, Afif

    2016-04-01

    Kinematic analysis of Babar-Selaru fold-thrust-belt is challenging and often difficult particularly in conducting seismic interpretation due to complex structural geometries. Resolving such as issue, in this study we proposed to use integrated seismic interpretation, analogue sandbox modeling and 3D palinspatic reconstructions. This paper is presented results of detail kinematic analysis for understanding tectonic evolution as well as mechanism of fold-thrust-belt in relation to their hydrocarbon prospect. Babar-Selaru Area is located within the collisional boundary between Australian continental margin and Banda Arc region of Indonesia. The area is characterized by complex deformation zone of fold-thrust-belt, involving Mesozoic and Tertiary sedimentary sequences of Australian continental margin. The age of deformation is ranging from 8-5 Ma. Seismic interpretations show two styles of faults developed in the area, which are thrust and normal faults system. The last deformation observed in the Babar Selaru area is controlled by south verging imbricated thin-skinned thrust fault system, with the staircase style of fault detachment. Although, both structural styles occurred in separated locations, they are formed not only in the same time but also related in time and space. Total extension is ranging from 1-3 % where average shortening is in the order of 35-38%. Sandbox modeling is an effective way to study and understand the style, pattern and geometry of the deformed sedimentary sequences in the study area. Based on comparison of five settings experiments (mainly different geological boundary condition) with more than 50 different modeling; deformation is particularly controlled by types and thickness of lithology package and detachment geometry. These two parameters were quite sensitive in generating different deformation style and pattern in Babar-Selaru fold-thrust-belt. Therefore, choosing the right combination of stratigraphy model and material setting are

  13. BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE REGION ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pshunetlev A. A.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article contains basic assumptions of the region sustainable economic development model, which can be used to gain new knowledge about economic processes, contribute to the stability of the regional development, as well as serve as an educational tool in the study of relevant disciplines

  14. Process analysis and sensitivity study of regional ozone formation over the Pearl River Delta, China, during the PRIDE-PRD2004 campaign using the CMAQ model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Wang

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ modeling system is used to simulate the ozone (O3 episodes during the Program of Regional Integrated Experiments of Air Quality over the Pearl River Delta, China, in October 2004 (PRIDE-PRD2004. The simulation suggests that O3 pollution is a regional phenomenon in the PRD. Elevated O3 levels often occurred in the southwestern inland PRD, Pearl River estuary (PRE, and southern coastal areas during the 1-month field campaign. Three evolution patterns of simulated surface O3 are summarized based on different near-ground flow conditions. More than 75% of days featured interaction between weak synoptic forcing and local sea-land circulations. Integrated process rate (IPR analysis shows that photochemical production is the dominant contributor to O3 enhancement from 09:00 to 15:00 LST (local standard time in the atmospheric boundary layer over most areas with elevated O3 occurrence in the mid-afternoon. The simulated ozone production efficiency is 2–8 O3 molecules per NOx molecule oxidized in areas with high O3 chemical production. Precursors of O3 originating from different source regions in the central PRD are mixed during transport to downwind rural areas during nighttime and early morning, where they then contribute to the daytime O3 photochemical production. Such close interactions among precursor emissions, transports, and O3 photochemical production result in the regional O3 pollution over the PRD. Sensitivity studies suggest that O3 formation is volatile organic compound-limited in the central inland PRD, PRE, and surrounding coastal areas with less chemical aging (NOx/NOy>0.6, but is NOx-limited in the rural southwestern PRD with photochemically aged air (NOx/NOy<0.3.

  15. Models of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

    2013-01-01

    The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

  16. An Impact Analysis of Fiscal Measures to Promote Self-Sustained Economic Development in Okinawa using a Multi-regional CGE Model (Japanese)

    OpenAIRE

    OKIYAMA Mitsuru; IKEGAWA Maria; Tokunaga, Suminori

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effective allocation of a comprehensive package of grants to the production activity sectors for the purpose of promoting self-sustained economic development in Okinawa prefecture. We find the following results by using a regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model comprised of six regions including Okinawa. First, the economic welfare of Okinawa increased by 123.2 billion yen due to a public fiscal transfer of 98.7 billion yen based on the comprehensive packag...

  17. Structural decomposition analysis on energy intensity changes at regional level

    OpenAIRE

    Hua Liao; Ce Wang; Zhi-Shuang Zhu; Xiao-Wei Ma

    2012-01-01

    As China's energy intensity fluctuated in recent years, it is necessary to examine whether this fluctuations happened at a regional level. This paper conducts a decomposition model by using the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) method at a regional level. Then this model is employed to empirically analyze the changes of Beijing's energy intensity. The conclusions are as follows: during 2002-2010, except petroleum, the energy intensity decreased and the changes were mostly attributed to ...

  18. Models of Regional Modernization of the Donbass Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantin Viktorovich Pavlov

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the methodical approach to the assessment of a level of development of post-industrial and neoindustrial models of economic modernization in regional aspect on the basis of various indicators. The proposed approach is approved with use of the statistical materials characterizing the state of economy in the regions of Donbass. The strategy of development of Donbass areas and their industrial cities would have to be based (we mean the situation if there were no military operations on this territory on the basis of the model of neoindustrialization assuming development of the sphere of the hi-tech industry, automation and a computerization of productive forces, replacement of physical work by intellectual labor that is radically capable to change nature of work and structure of labor balance of this macro-region. Branches and sectors of a socio-economic complex of the Donbass region using achievements of fundamental and applied science, engineering and design thought for increase in a share of automation, a computerization and mechanization of workplaces, physical and brainwork prior to the beginning of a political conflict in Ukraine have the potential of development. The authors also pay attention to need of studying the agglomerative effect from interaction of the cities and areas of the Donbass euroregion. It is connected, first of all, with development of vertical and horizontal mechanisms of active use of potential of so-called “cities-kernels”, capable to make the catalyzing impact on production, social infrastructure, creation and development of new perspective branches in the cities-satellites.

  19. Regional analysis and environmental impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parzyck, D.C.; Brocksen, R.W.; Emanuel, W.R.

    1976-01-01

    This paper presents a number of techniques that can be used to assess environmental impacts on a regional scale. Regional methodologies have been developed which examine impacts upon aquatic and terrestrial biota in regions through consideration of changes in land use, land cover, air quality, water resource use, and water quality. Techniques used to assess long-range atmospheric transport, water resources, effects on sensitive forest and animal species, and impacts on man are presented in this paper, along with an optimization approach which serves to integrate the analytical techniques in an overall assessment framework. A brief review of the research approach and certain modeling techniques used within one regional studies program is provided. While it is not an all inclusive report on regional analyses, it does present an illustration of the types of analyses that can be performed on a regional scale.

  20. Data Assimilation With Regional Lagrangian Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-30

    Journal of Marine Systems . RESULTS We are able to fit the inviscid Lagrangian model with synthetic Lagrangian data for short periods of time (1-2 days...Mead and A.F. Bennett, 1999. Towards regional assimilation of data: The Lagrangian form of the reduced gravity model and its inverse, (submitted), Journal of Marine Systems .

  1. Regional climate simulations over Vietnam using the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

    2016-10-01

    We present an analysis of the present-day (1961-1990) regional climate simulations over Vietnam. The regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) was driven by the global reanalysis ERA40. The performance of the regional climate model in simulating the observed climate is evaluated with a main focus on precipitation and temperature. The regional climate model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the climate, although with some biases. The model also performed better in reproducing the extreme precipitation and the interannual variability. Overall, the WRF model was able to simulate the main regional signatures of climate variables, seasonal cycles, and frequency distributions. This study is an evaluation of the present-day climate simulations of a regional climate model at a resolution of 25 km. Given that dynamical downscaling has become common for studying climate change and its impacts, the study highlights that much more improvements in modeling might be necessary to yield realistic simulations of climate at high resolutions before they can be used for impact studies at a local scale. The need for a dense network of observations is also realized as observations at high resolutions are needed when it comes to evaluations and validations of models at sub-regional and local scales.

  2. Uncertainty in Regional Air Quality Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Digar, Antara

    Effective pollution mitigation is the key to successful air quality management. Although states invest millions of dollars to predict future air quality, the regulatory modeling and analysis process to inform pollution control strategy remains uncertain. Traditionally deterministic ‘bright-line’ tests are applied to evaluate the sufficiency of a control strategy to attain an air quality standard. A critical part of regulatory attainment demonstration is the prediction of future pollutant levels using photochemical air quality models. However, because models are uncertain, they yield a false sense of precision that pollutant response to emission controls is perfectly known and may eventually mislead the selection of control policies. These uncertainties in turn affect the health impact assessment of air pollution control strategies. This thesis explores beyond the conventional practice of deterministic attainment demonstration and presents novel approaches to yield probabilistic representations of pollutant response to emission controls by accounting for uncertainties in regional air quality planning. Computationally-efficient methods are developed and validated to characterize uncertainty in the prediction of secondary pollutant (ozone and particulate matter) sensitivities to precursor emissions in the presence of uncertainties in model assumptions and input parameters. We also introduce impact factors that enable identification of model inputs and scenarios that strongly influence pollutant concentrations and sensitivity to precursor emissions. We demonstrate how these probabilistic approaches could be applied to determine the likelihood that any control measure will yield regulatory attainment, or could be extended to evaluate probabilistic health benefits of emission controls, considering uncertainties in both air quality models and epidemiological concentration-response relationships. Finally, ground-level observations for pollutant (ozone) and precursor

  3. Analysis of regional total factor energy efficiency in China under environmental constraints: based on undesirable-minds and DEA window model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shuying; Li, Deshan; Li, Shuangqiang; Jiang, Hanyu; Shen, Yuqing

    2017-06-01

    With China’s entrance into the new economy, the improvement of energy efficiency has become an important indicator to measure the quality of ecological civilization construction and economic development. According to the panel data of Chinese regions in 1996-2014, the nearest distance to the efficient frontier of Undesirable-MinDS Xeon model and DEA window model have been used to calculate the total factor energy efficiency of China’s regions. Study found that: Under environmental constraints, China’s total factor energy efficiency has increased after the first drop in the overall 1996-2014, and then increases again. And the difference between the regions is very large, showing a characteristic of “the east is the highest, the west is lower, and lowest is in the central” finally, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions.

  4. Process analysis of regional ozone formation over the Yangtze River Delta, China using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Li

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available High ozone concentration has become an important issue in summer in most economically developed cities in Eastern China. In this paper, observations at an urban site within the Shanghai city are used to examine the typical high ozone episodes in August 2010, and the MM5-CMAQ modeling system is then applied to reproduce the typical high ozone episodes. In order to account for the contribution of different atmospheric processes during the high pollution episodes, the CMAQ integrated process rate (IPR is used to assess the different atmospheric dynamics in rural and urban sites of Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou, which are typical cities of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD region. In order to study the contributions of the main atmospheric processes leading to ozone formation, vertical process analysis in layer 1 (0–40 m, layer 7 (350–500 m, layer 8 (500–900 m and layer 10 (1400–2000 m has been considered. The observations compare well with the results of the numerical model. IPR analysis shows that the maximum concentration of ozone occurs due to transport phenomena, including vertical diffusion and horizontal advective transport. The gas-phase chemistry producing O3 mainly occurs in the height of 300–1500 m, causing a strong vertical O3 transport from upper levels to the surface layer. The gas-phase chemistry is an important sink for O3 in the surface layer, coupled with dry deposition. The cloud processes, horizontal diffusion and heterogeneous chemistry contributions are negligible during the whole episode. In the urban Shanghai area, the average O3 production rates contributed by vertical diffusion and horizontal transport are 24.7 ppb h−1, 3.6 ppb h−1, accounting for 27.6% and 6.6% of net surface O3 change, respectively. The average contributions of chemistry, dry deposition and vertical advective transport to O3 production are −21.9, −4.3 and

  5. Statistical Analysis of Acoustic Wave Parameters Near Solar Active Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabello-Soares, M. Cristina; Bogart, Richard S.; Scherrer, Philip H.

    2016-08-01

    In order to quantify the influence of magnetic fields on acoustic mode parameters and flows in and around active regions, we analyze the differences in the parameters in magnetically quiet regions nearby an active region (which we call “nearby regions”), compared with those of quiet regions at the same disk locations for which there are no neighboring active regions. We also compare the mode parameters in active regions with those in comparably located quiet regions. Our analysis is based on ring-diagram analysis of all active regions observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) during almost five years. We find that the frequency at which the mode amplitude changes from attenuation to amplification in the quiet nearby regions is around 4.2 mHz, in contrast to the active regions, for which it is about 5.1 mHz. This amplitude enhacement (the “acoustic halo effect”) is as large as that observed in the active regions, and has a very weak dependence on the wave propagation direction. The mode energy difference in nearby regions also changes from a deficit to an excess at around 4.2 mHz, but averages to zero over all modes. The frequency difference in nearby regions increases with increasing frequency until a point at which the frequency shifts turn over sharply, as in active regions. However, this turnover occurs around 4.9 mHz, which is significantly below the acoustic cutoff frequency. Inverting the horizontal flow parameters in the direction of the neigboring active regions, we find flows that are consistent with a model of the thermal energy flow being blocked directly below the active region.

  6. Realistic shell model; 132Sn region; 208Pb region

    CERN Document Server

    Covello, A; Gargano, A; Itaco, N

    2008-01-01

    We report on a study of exotic nuclei around doubly magic 132Sn in terms of the shell model employing a realistic effective interaction derived from the CD-Bonn nucleon-nucleon potential. The short-range repulsion of the latter is renormalized by constructing a smooth low-momentum potential, V-low-k, that is used directly as input for the calculation of the effective interaction. In this paper, we focus attention on proton-neutron multiplets in the odd-odd nuclei 134Sb, 136Sb. We show that the behavior of these multiplets is quite similar to that of the analogous multiplets in the counterpart nuclei in the 208Pb region, 210Bi and 212Bi.

  7. Regional analysis of road mortality in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eksler, V; Lassarre, S; Thomas, I

    2008-09-01

    Road accidents are the tenth leading cause of premature death worldwide and, based on current trends, are likely to become the third leading cause of disability-adjusted life years lost by 2020. Road mortality varies in time and space both between countries and also between regions within the same country. Identifying and understanding the background of regional differences may lead to better understanding of the sources of road accidents, and enable the application of more effective road safety policies. A Bayesian ecological regression model based on a unified generalized linear mixed model framework is introduced. Population density and country (affiliation) were used as covariates and were fitted into the model at the four levels of spatial aggregation known as 'nomenclature of statistical territorial units (NUTS) regional classification'. Population density has a significant influence on road mortality. For all countries together, the elasticity estimate is -0.32, meaning that a 10% increase in population density is linked to a 3.2% decrease in road fatalities. A multi-level model defined at the NUTS-3 level, taking into account the NUTS-2 aggregation, enables infraregional variances in road mortality to be taken into account and produces the most reliable estimates of the model parameters. Variation in the Bayes relative risk (the mortality ratio 'standardized' by population density and country effect) is highest at the NUTS-3 level, but is lower at country level and NUTS-2 level, which suggests that other important underlying factors are responsible for the variations in road mortality between regions. Mapping the Bayes relative risk enables the identification of regions that should be targeted by national and regional policies. Last but not least, a new ranking of European countries according to their road mortality risk, adjusted for population density, is presented.

  8. Avaliação do modelo regional eta utilizando as análises do CPTEC e NCEP Evaluation of the eta regional model using the analysis of CPTEC and NCEP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rildo Gonçalves de Moura

    2010-03-01

    evaluated the forecasts of precipitation and mean sea level pressure for the period up to 120 hours, using the mean error (ME and the root mean squared error (RMSE from December 2007 to February 2008. The used model was the ETA (40 km, with two separate entries of data, the analysis of the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS (ETA-I and the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP (ETA-II. The results showed, for both tests, a trend of overestimation (positive values of average error of precipitation on the Northern Region of Brazil, mainly for the 24 hours forecast. Considering the mean sea level pressure (MSLP, it was clearly seen that the ETA-I, whose values of pressure are very close to observed, provides better results compared to the ETA-II, especially during the first hours of integration.

  9. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  10. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  11. Python Program to Select HII Region Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Clare; Lamarche, Cody; Vishwas, Amit; Stacey, Gordon J.

    2016-01-01

    HII regions are areas of singly ionized Hydrogen formed by the ionizing radiaiton of upper main sequence stars. The infrared fine-structure line emissions, particularly Oxygen, Nitrogen, and Neon, can give important information about HII regions including gas temperature and density, elemental abundances, and the effective temperature of the stars that form them. The processes involved in calculating this information from observational data are complex. Models, such as those provided in Rubin 1984 and those produced by Cloudy (Ferland et al, 2013) enable one to extract physical parameters from observational data. However, the multitude of search parameters can make sifting through models tedious. I digitized Rubin's models and wrote a Python program that is able to take observed line ratios and their uncertainties and find the Rubin or Cloudy model that best matches the observational data. By creating a Python script that is user friendly and able to quickly sort through models with a high level of accuracy, this work increases efficiency and reduces human error in matching HII region models to observational data.

  12. A regional model of interprofessional education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Olenick

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Maria Olenick1, Edward Foote1, Patricia Vanston1, John Szarek1, Zachary Vaskalis1, Mary Jane Dimattio2, Raymond A Smego Jr21The Commonwealth Medical College, Scranton, PA, USA; Nesbitt College of Pharmacy and Nursing, Wilkes University, Wilkes-Barre, PA, USA; 2University of Scranton, Scranton, PA, USAAbstract: This paper describes the innovative features of the first regional model of interprofessional education (IPE in the US, developed by The Commonwealth Medical College, Scranton, PA, USA, as a new, independent, community-based medical school in northeastern Pennsylvania. Essential educational components include collaborative care seminars, interprofessional sessions, simulations, live web-based seminars and newly innovative virtual environment interactive exercises. All of these elements are being integrated into the curricula of 14 undergraduate and allied professional schools, and three graduate medical education programs located in the region. Activities incorporate simulation, standardized patients, student leadership, and faculty and student facilitation. As this new regional model of interprofessional education is fully implemented, its impact will be assessed using both quantitative and qualitative outcomes measurements. Appropriate ongoing modifications to the model will be made to ensure improvement and further applicability to collaborative learning.Keywords: interprofessional education, regional model, medical education

  13. Modeling Regional Recycling and Remanufacturing Processes: From Micro to Macro

    OpenAIRE

    Joyce Cooper; Randall Jackson; Nancey Green Leigh

    2008-01-01

    This paper reports progress in modeling recycling and remanufacturing processes within metropolitan regional economies at the micro and macro levels. The paper presents interim results from a multi-year, inter-institutional research project funded by the National Science Foundation. We identify a number of issues that have arisen from an in-depth industry level analysis of obsolete and waste products generated in the Seattle, WA and Atlanta, GA metro regions from waste electronics (e-waste) a...

  14. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  15. Analysis of nucleation events in the European boundary layer using the regional aerosol–climate model REMO-HAM with a solar radiation-driven OH-proxy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Pietikäinen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This work describes improvements in the regional aerosol–climate model REMO-HAM in order to simulate more realistically the process of atmospheric new particle formation (NPF. A new scheme was implemented to simulate OH radical concentrations using a proxy approach based on observations and also accounting for the effects of clouds upon OH concentrations. Second, the nucleation rate calculation was modified to directly simulate the formation rates of 3 nm particles, which removes some unnecessary steps in the formation rate calculations used earlier in the model. Using the updated model version, NPF over Europe was simulated for the periods 2003–2004 and 2008–2009. The statistics of the simulated particle formation events were subsequently compared to observations from 13 ground-based measurement sites. The new model shows improved agreement with the observed NPF rates compared to former versions and can simulate the event statistics realistically for most parts of Europe.

  16. A regression model to estimate regional ground water recharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, David L; Delin, Geoffrey N

    2007-01-01

    A regional regression model was developed to estimate the spatial distribution of ground water recharge in subhumid regions. The regional regression recharge (RRR) model was based on a regression of basin-wide estimates of recharge from surface water drainage basins, precipitation, growing degree days (GDD), and average basin specific yield (SY). Decadal average recharge, precipitation, and GDD were used in the RRR model. The RRR estimates were derived from analysis of stream base flow using a computer program that was based on the Rorabaugh method. As expected, there was a strong correlation between recharge and precipitation. The model was applied to statewide data in Minnesota. Where precipitation was least in the western and northwestern parts of the state (50 to 65 cm/year), recharge computed by the RRR model also was lowest (0 to 5 cm/year). A strong correlation also exists between recharge and SY. SY was least in areas where glacial lake clay occurs, primarily in the northwest part of the state; recharge estimates in these areas were in the 0- to 5-cm/year range. In sand-plain areas where SY is greatest, recharge estimates were in the 15- to 29-cm/year range on the basis of the RRR model. Recharge estimates that were based on the RRR model compared favorably with estimates made on the basis of other methods. The RRR model can be applied in other subhumid regions where region wide data sets of precipitation, streamflow, GDD, and soils data are available.

  17. Regional Hazard Analysis For Use In Vulnerability And Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maris Fotios

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A method for supporting an operational regional risk and vulnerability analysis for hydrological hazards is suggested and applied in the Island of Cyprus. The method aggregates the output of a hydrological flow model forced by observed temperatures and precipitations, with observed discharge data. A scheme supported by observed discharge is applied for model calibration. A comparison of different calibration schemes indicated that the same model parameters can be used for the entire country. In addition, it was demonstrated that, for operational purposes, it is sufficient to rely on a few stations. Model parameters were adjusted to account for land use and thus for vulnerability of elements at risk by comparing observed and simulated flow patterns, using all components of the hydrological model. The results can be used for regional risk and vulnerability analysis in order to increase the resilience of the affected population.

  18. Incorporating vegetation feedbacks in regional climate modeling over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfanian, A.; Wang, G.; Yu, M.; Ahmed, K. F.; Anyah, R. O.

    2015-12-01

    Despite major advancements in modeling of the climate system, incorporating vegetation dynamics into climate models is still at the initial stages making it an ongoing research topic. Only few of GCMs participating in CMIP5 simulations included the vegetation dynamics component. Consideration for vegetation dynamics is even less common in RCMs. In this study, RegCM4.3.4-CLM4-CN-DV, a regional climate model synchronously coupled with a land surface component that includes both Carbon-Nitrogen (CN) and Dynamic-Vegetation (DV) processes is used to simulate and project regional climate over West Africa. Due to its unique regional features, West Africa climate is known for being susceptible to land-atmosphere interactions, enhancing the importance of including vegetation dynamics in modeling climate over this region. In this study the model is integrated for two scenarios (present-day and future) using outputs from four GCMs participating in CMIP5 (MIROC, CESM, GFDL and CCSM4) as lateral boundary conditions, which form the basis of a multi-model ensemble. Results of model validation indicates that ensemble of all models outperforms each of individual models in simulating present-day temperature and precipitation. Therefore, the ensemble set is used to analyze the impact of including vegetation dynamics in the RCM on future projection of West Africa's climate. Results from the ensemble analysis will be presented, together with comparison among individual models.

  19. The ATLAS Analysis Model

    CERN Multimedia

    Amir Farbin

    The ATLAS Analysis Model is a continually developing vision of how to reconcile physics analysis requirements with the ATLAS offline software and computing model constraints. In the past year this vision has influenced the evolution of the ATLAS Event Data Model, the Athena software framework, and physics analysis tools. These developments, along with the October Analysis Model Workshop and the planning for CSC analyses have led to a rapid refinement of the ATLAS Analysis Model in the past few months. This article introduces some of the relevant issues and presents the current vision of the future ATLAS Analysis Model. Event Data Model The ATLAS Event Data Model (EDM) consists of several levels of details, each targeted for a specific set of tasks. For example the Event Summary Data (ESD) stores calorimeter cells and tracking system hits thereby permitting many calibration and alignment tasks, but will be only accessible at particular computing sites with potentially large latency. In contrast, the Analysis...

  20. Modeling disordered regions in proteins using Rosetta.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ray Yu-Ruei Wang

    Full Text Available Protein structure prediction methods such as Rosetta search for the lowest energy conformation of the polypeptide chain. However, the experimentally observed native state is at a minimum of the free energy, rather than the energy. The neglect of the missing configurational entropy contribution to the free energy can be partially justified by the assumption that the entropies of alternative folded states, while very much less than unfolded states, are not too different from one another, and hence can be to a first approximation neglected when searching for the lowest free energy state. The shortcomings of current structure prediction methods may be due in part to the breakdown of this assumption. Particularly problematic are proteins with significant disordered regions which do not populate single low energy conformations even in the native state. We describe two approaches within the Rosetta structure modeling methodology for treating such regions. The first does not require advance knowledge of the regions likely to be disordered; instead these are identified by minimizing a simple free energy function used previously to model protein folding landscapes and transition states. In this model, residues can be either completely ordered or completely disordered; they are considered disordered if the gain in entropy outweighs the loss of favorable energetic interactions with the rest of the protein chain. The second approach requires identification in advance of the disordered regions either from sequence alone using for example the DISOPRED server or from experimental data such as NMR chemical shifts. During Rosetta structure prediction calculations the disordered regions make only unfavorable repulsive contributions to the total energy. We find that the second approach has greater practical utility and illustrate this with examples from de novo structure prediction, NMR structure calculation, and comparative modeling.

  1. Use Of Radar-Rainfall Data for the Southwest Coastal Louisiana Feasibility Study: Regional Scale Hydrologic and Salinity Modeling and Management Scenario Analysis for Chenier Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meselhe, E. A.; Michot, B.; Chen, C.; Habib, E. H.

    2011-12-01

    The Chenier Plain, in Southwest Louisiana, extends from Vermilion Bay to Sabine Lake in southeast Texas. It has great economic, industrial, recreational, and ecological value. Over the years, human activities such as dredging ship channels and access canals, building roads, levees, and hydraulic structures have altered the hydrology of the Chenier Plain. These alterations have affected the fragile equilibrium of the marsh ecology. If no action is taken to restore the Chenier Plain, land loss through conversion of marsh to open water would continue. The Southwest Coastal Louisiana Feasibility Study aims at evaluating proposed protection and restoration measures and ultimately submitting a comprehensive plan to protect and preserve the Chenier Plain at the regional scale. The proposed alternatives include marsh creation, terracing, shoreline protection, and freshwater introduction and salinity control structures. A regional scale hydrodynamic and salinity transport model was developed to screen and assess the proposed restoration measures. A critical component of this modeling effort is local rainfall. The strong spatial variability and limited availability of ground-level precipitation measurements limited our ability to capture local rainfall. Thus, a radar-based rainfall product was used as a viable alternative to the rain gauges. These estimates are based on the National Weather Service from the Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) algorithm. Since the model was used to perform long-term (yearly) simulations, the 4x4 km2 MPE estimates were represented as daily accumulations. The use of the radar-rainfall product data improved the model performance especially on our ability to capture the spatial and temporal variations of salinity. Overall, the model is improving our understanding of the circulation patterns and salinity regimes of the region. The circulation model used here is the MIKE FLOOD software (Danish Hydraulic Institute, DHI 2008) which dynamically

  2. Ecosystem feedbacks to climate change in California: Development, testing, and analysis using a coupled regional atmosphere and land-surface model (WRF3-CLM3.5)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Subin, Z.M.; Riley, W.J.; Kueppers, L.M.; Jin, J.; Christianson, D.S.; Torn, M.S.

    2010-11-01

    A regional atmosphere model [Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3 (WRF3)] and a land surface model [Community Land Model, version 3.5 (CLM3.5)] were coupled to study the interactions between the atmosphere and possible future California land-cover changes. The impact was evaluated on California's climate of changes in natural vegetation under climate change and of intentional afforestation. The ability of WRF3 to simulate California's climate was assessed by comparing simulations by WRF3-CLM3.5 and WRF3-Noah to observations from 1982 to 1991. Using WRF3-CLM3.5, the authors performed six 13-yr experiments using historical and future large-scale climate boundary conditions from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The land-cover scenarios included historical and future natural vegetation from the Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System-Century 1 (MC1) dynamic vegetation model, in addition to a future 8-million-ha California afforestation scenario. Natural vegetation changes alone caused summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature changes of -0.7 to +1 C in regions without persistent snow cover, depending on the location and the type of vegetation change. Vegetation temperature changes were much larger than the 2-m air temperature changes because of the finescale spatial heterogeneity of the imposed vegetation change. Up to 30% of the magnitude of the summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature increase and 70% of the magnitude of the 1600 local time (LT) vegetation temperature increase projected under future climate change were attributable to the climate-driven shift in land cover. The authors projected that afforestation could cause local 0.2-1.2 C reductions in summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature and 2.0-3.7 C reductions in 1600 LT vegetation temperature for snow-free regions, primarily because of increased evapotranspiration. Because some of these temperature changes are of comparable magnitude to those

  3. Spatial analysis on China's regional air pollutants and CO2 emissions: emission pattern and regional disparity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Liang; Liang, Hanwei

    2014-08-01

    China has suffered from serious air pollution and CO2 emission. Challenges of emission reduction policy not only come from technology advancement, but also generate from the fact that, China has pronounced disparity between regions, in geographical and socioeconomic. How to deal with regional disparity is important to achieve the reduction target effectively and efficiently. This research conducts a spatial analysis on the emission patterns of three air pollutants named SO2, NOx and PM2.5, and CO2, in China's 30 provinces, applied with spatial auto-correlation and multi regression modeling. We further analyze the regional disparity and inequity issues with the approach of Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient. Results highlight that: there is evident cluster effect for the regional air pollutants and CO2 emissions. While emission amount increases from western regions to eastern regions, the emission per GDP is in inverse trend. The Lorenz curve shows an even larger unequal distribution of GDP/emissions than GDP/capita in 30 regions. Certain middle and western regions suffers from a higher emission with lower GDP, which reveal the critical issue of emission leakage. Future policy making to address such regional disparity is critical so as to promote the emission control policy under the “equity and efficiency” principle.

  4. A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

    2011-07-01

    Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States.

  5. An Approach for Identifying of Fusarium Infected Maize Grains by Spectral Analysis in the Visible and Near Infrared Region, SIMCA Models, Parametric and Neural Classifiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsvetelina Draganova

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available An approach for identifying of Fusarium infected single maize grains based on diffuse reflectance in visible and near infrared region is proposed in the paper. Spectral characteristics were collected in the range 400-2500 nm in steps of 2 nm. Soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA is used for data processing. Maize grains classification is based on SIMCA classifier and Probabilistic neural network (PNN. Recognition accuracy which is achieved for both classes of grains is respectively 99.89% for healthy, and 93.7% for infected.

  6. Comparative promoter region analysis powered by CORG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arndt Peter F

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Promoters are key players in gene regulation. They receive signals from various sources (e.g. cell surface receptors and control the level of transcription initiation, which largely determines gene expression. In vertebrates, transcription start sites and surrounding regulatory elements are often poorly defined. To support promoter analysis, we present CORG http://corg.molgen.mpg.de, a framework for studying upstream regions including untranslated exons (5' UTR. Description The automated annotation of promoter regions integrates information of two kinds. First, statistically significant cross-species conservation within upstream regions of orthologous genes is detected. Pairwise as well as multiple sequence comparisons are computed. Second, binding site descriptions (position-weight matrices are employed to predict conserved regulatory elements with a novel approach. Assembled EST sequences and verified transcription start sites are incorporated to distinguish exonic from other sequences. As of now, we have included 5 species in our analysis pipeline (man, mouse, rat, fugu and zebrafish. We characterized promoter regions of 16,127 groups of orthologous genes. All data are presented in an intuitive way via our web site. Users are free to export data for single genes or access larger data sets via our DAS server http://tomcat.molgen.mpg.de:8080/das. The benefits of our framework are exemplarily shown in the context of phylogenetic profiling of transcription factor binding sites and detection of microRNAs close to transcription start sites of our gene set. Conclusion The CORG platform is a versatile tool to support analyses of gene regulation in vertebrate promoter regions. Applications for CORG cover a broad range from studying evolution of DNA binding sites and promoter constitution to the discovery of new regulatory sequence elements (e.g. microRNAs and binding sites.

  7. Extreme warming in the NE Atlantic in the winter period 2002-2012 - an analysis with the regional atmospheric model COSMO-CLM and the Arctic System Reanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohnemann, Svenja; Heinemann, Guenther; Gutjahr, Oliver; Bromwich, David H.

    2016-04-01

    The high-resolution atmospheric model COSMO-CLM (CCLM, German Meteorological Service) is used to simulate the 2m-temperature and the boundary layer structures in the Arctic with focus on the NE Atlantic section the winter periods (Nov-Apr) between 2002 and 2015. The CCLM simulations have a horizontal resolution of 15 km for the whole Arctic. The comparable Arctic System Reanalysis data (ASR, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center), which has been optimized for the Arctic, are available for the same time period with a horizontal resolution of 30 km. In addition, climatological data from Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) stations are used as verification. The comparison between the CCLM simulations and the ASR data shows a high agreement. Also the verification of both data sets with AWS and Era-Interim data shows a very high correlation for the air temperature. Slight differences between CCLM and ASR are recognizable in the extreme values as CCLM has the better ice information assimilated and the higher resolution during simulations. Time series of monthly mean based 2m-temperature indicate an enormous increase for the single months for the NE Atlantic and especially the region around the Siberian Island Novaya Zemlya. For example the CCLM March increase amounts up to 16 °C for the regional maximum for the period 2002-2012. The strong increase is mainly reducible to the decreasing sea ice situation in that region during the same time.

  8. A convection-conduction model for analysis of the freeze-thaw conditions in the surrounding rock wall of a tunnel in permafrost regions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何春雄; 吴紫汪; 朱林楠

    1999-01-01

    Based on the analyses of fundamental meteorological and hydrogeological conditions at the site of a tunnel in the cold regions, a combined convection-conduction model for air flow in the tunnel and temperature field in the surrounding has been constructed. Using the model, the air temperature distribution in the Xiluoqi No. 2 Tunnel has been simulated numerically. The simulated results are in agreement with the data observed. Then, based on the in situ conditions of air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind force, hydrogeology and engineering geology, the air-temperature relationship between the temperature on the surface of the tunnel wall and the air temperature at the entry and exit of the tunnel has been obtained, and the freeze-thaw conditions at the Dabanshan Tunnel which is now under construction is predicted.

  9. Computational analysis of the extracellular domain of the Ca²⁺-sensing receptor: an alternate model for the Ca²⁺ sensing region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrill, Gene A; Kostellow, Adele B; Gupta, Raj K

    2015-03-27

    The extracellular Ca(2+) sensing receptor (CaSR) belongs to Class C G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) which include receptors for amino acids, γ-aminobutyric acid and glutamate neurotransmitters. CaSR has been described as having an extended sequence containing a Ca(2+) binding pocket within an extracellular amino (N)-terminal domain, called a Venus Fly Trap (VFT) module. CaSR is thought to consist of three domains: 1) a Ca(2+-)sensory domain, 2) a region containing 7 transmembrane (TM) helices, and 3) a carboxy (C)-terminal tail. We find that SPOCTOPUS (a combination of hidden Markov models and artificial neural networks) predicts that Homo sapiens CaSR contains two additional TM helices ((190)D - G(210); (262)S-E(282)), with the second TM helix containing a pore-lining region ((265)K - I(280)). This predicts that the putative Ca(2+) sensory domain is within an extracellular loop, N-terminal to the highly conserved heptahelical bundle. This loop contains both the cysteine-rich domain ((537)V - C(598)) and a 14 residue "linker" sequence ((599)I - F(612)) thought to support signal transmission to the heptahelical bundle. Thus domain 1 may contain a 189 residue N-terminal extracellular region followed successively by TM-1, a short intracellular loop, TM-2 and a 329 residue extracellular loop; rather than the proposed 620 residue VFT module based on crystallography of the N-terminal region of mGluR1. Since the topologies of the two proteins differ, the published CaSR VFT model is questionable. CaSR also contains multiple caveolin-binding motifs and cholesterol-binding (CRAC/CARC) domains, facilitating localization to plasma membrane lipid rafts. Ion sensing may involve combination of pore-lining regions from CaSR dimers and CaSR-bound caveolins to form ion channels capable of monitoring ionized Ca(2+) levels. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. MULTILEVEL RECURRENT MODEL FOR HIERARCHICAL CONTROL OF COMPLEX REGIONAL SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey V. Masloboev

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Subject of research. The research goal and scope are development of methods and software for mathematical and computer modeling of the regional security information support systems as multilevel hierarchical systems. Such systems are characterized by loosely formalization, multiple-aspect of descendent system processes and their interconnectivity, high level dynamics and uncertainty. The research methodology is based on functional-target approach and principles of multilevel hierarchical system theory. The work considers analysis and structural-algorithmic synthesis problem-solving of the multilevel computer-aided systems intended for management and decision-making information support in the field of regional security. Main results. A hierarchical control multilevel model of regional socio-economic system complex security has been developed. The model is based on functional-target approach and provides both formal statement and solving, and practical implementation of the automated information system structure and control algorithms synthesis problems of regional security management optimal in terms of specified criteria. An approach for intralevel and interlevel coordination problem-solving in the multilevel hierarchical systems has been proposed on the basis of model application. The coordination is provided at the expense of interconnection requirements satisfaction between the functioning quality indexes (objective functions, which are optimized by the different elements of multilevel systems. That gives the possibility for sufficient coherence reaching of the local decisions, being made on the different control levels, under decentralized decision-making and external environment high dynamics. Recurrent model application provides security control mathematical models formation of regional socioeconomic systems, functioning under uncertainty. Practical relevance. The model implementation makes it possible to automate synthesis realization of

  11. Estimation of atmospheric aging time of black carbon particles in the polluted atmosphere over central-eastern China using microphysical process analysis in regional chemical transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xueshun; Wang, Zifa; Yu, Fangqun; Pan, Xiaole; Li, Jie; Ge, Baozhu; Wang, Zhe; Hu, Min; Yang, Wenyi; Chen, Huansheng

    2017-08-01

    Mixing state of black carbon (BC) particles has significant impacts on their radiative forcing, visibility impairment and the ability in modifying cloud formation. In this study, an aging scheme of BC particles using prognostic variables based on aerosol microphysics was incorporated into a regional atmospheric chemistry model, Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System with Advanced Particle Microphysics (NAQPMS + APM), to investigate the temporal and spatial variations in aging time scale of BC particles in polluted atmosphere over central-eastern China. The model results show that the aging time scale has a clear diurnal variation with a lower value in the daytime and a higher value in the nighttime. The shorter aging time scale in the daytime is due to condensation aging associated with intense photochemical reaction while the longer aging time scale in the nighttime is due to coagulation aging, which is much slower than that due to condensation. In Beijing, the aging time scale is 2 h or less in the surface layer in daytime, which is far below the fixed 1.2 days used in many models. As a result, the fraction of hydrophilic BC particles by the new scheme is larger than that by the scheme with fixed aging time scale though the mean aging time scale by the new scheme is much larger than 1.2 days. Hydrophilic fraction of BC particles increases with the increase of height. Over central-eastern China, the averaged aging time scale calculated by the new scheme is in the range from 12 h to 7 days, with higher values in regions far from the source areas. Hydrophilic fraction of BC particles is more than 90% at the higher levels in polluted atmosphere. Difference of simulated BC concentration with internal mixing and microphysical aging is within 5%, indicating that the assumption of internal mixing for BC particles to respond to in-cloud scavenging is more appropriate than the external mixing assumption in polluted atmosphere over central-eastern China.

  12. Analysis of the present and future winter Pacific-North American teleconnection in the ECHAM5 global and RegCM3 regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Andrea M.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Alder, Jay R.

    2014-01-01

    We use the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NCEP) and the MPI/ECHAM5 general circulation model to drive the RegCM3 regional climate model to assess the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal aspects of the Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) pattern. Composite anomalies of the NCEP-driven RegCM3 simulations for 1982–2000 indicate that the regional model is capable of accurately simulating the key features (500-hPa heights, surface temperature, and precipitation) of the positive and negative phases of the PNA with little loss of information in the downscaling process. The basic structure of the PNA is captured in both the ECHAM5 global and ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 simulations. The 1950–2000 ECHAM5 simulation displays similar temporal and spatial variability in the PNA index as that of NCEP; however, the magnitudes of the positive and negative phases are weaker than those of NCEP. The RegCM3 simulations clearly differentiate the climatology and associated anomalies of snow water equivalent and soil moisture of the positive and negative PNA phases. In the RegCM3 simulations of the future (2050–2100), changes in the location and extent of the Aleutian low and the continental high over North America alter the dominant flow patterns associated with positive and negative PNA modes. The future projections display a shift in the patterns of the relationship between the PNA and surface climate variables, which suggest the potential for changes in the PNA-related surface hydrology of North America.

  13. Regional analysis of the nuclear-electricity; Analisis regional de la nucleoelectricidad

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parera, M. D., E-mail: dparera@cnea.gov.ar [CNEA, Gerencia de Planificacion, Coordinacion y Control, Subgerencia de Planificacion Estrategica, Av. Gral. Paz 1499, B1650KNA San Martin, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2011-11-15

    In this study was realized a regional analysis of the Argentinean electric market contemplating the effects of regional cooperation, the internal and international interconnections; and the possibilities of insert of new nuclear power stations were evaluated in different regions of the country, indicating the most appropriate areas to carry out these facilities to increase the penetration of the nuclear energy in the national energy matrix. Also was studied the interconnection of the electricity and natural gas markets, due to the existent linking among both energy forms. With this purpose the program Message (Model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impacts) was used, promoted by the International Atomic Energy Agency. This model carries out an economic optimization level country, obtaining the minimum cost as a result for the modeling system. The division for regions realized by the Compania Administradora del Mercado Mayorista Electrico (CAMMESA) was used, which divides to the country in eight regions. They were considered the characteristics and necessities of each one of them, their respective demands and offers of electric power and natural gas, as well as their existent and projected interconnections, composed by the electric lines and gas pipes. According to the results obtained through the model, the nuclear-electricity is a competitive option. (Author)

  14. [Numerical modeling analysis of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) combined with the ground-based measurements in the Pearl River Delta region].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiao-Shuang; Situ, Shu-Ping; Wang, Xue-Mei; Ding, Xiang; Wang, Xin-Ming; Yan, Cai-Qing; Li, Xiao-Ying; Zheng, Mei

    2014-05-01

    Two simulations were conducted with different secondary organic aerosol (SOA) methods-VBS (volatile basis set) approach and SORGAM (secondary organic aerosol model) , which have been coupled in the WRF/Chem (weather research and forecasting model with chemistry) model. Ground-based observation data from 18th to 25th November 2008 were used to examine the model performance of SOA in the Pearl River Delta(PRD)region. The results showed that VBS approach could better reproduce the temporal variation and magnitude of SOA compared with SORGAM, and the mean absolute deviation and correlation coefficient between the observed and the simulated data using VBS approach were -4.88 microg m-3 and 0.91, respectively, while they were -5.32 microg.m-3 and 0. 18 with SORGAM. This is mainly because the VBS approach considers SOA precursors with a wider volatility range and the process of chemical aging in SOA formation. Spatiotemporal distribution of SOA in the PRD from the VBS simulation was also analyzed. The results indicated that the SOA has a significant diurnal variation, and the maximal SOA concentration occurred at noon and in the early afternoon. Because of the transport and the considerable spatial distribution of O3 , the SOA concentrations were different in different PRD cities, and the highest concentration of SOA was observed in the downwind area, including Zhongshan, Zhuhai and Jiangmen.

  15. Regional knowledge economy development indicative planning system conceptual model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Davidovna Vaisman

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the research is the processes of Russian knowledge economy development, its progress on the regional level is taken as a theme, which determined the purpose of research: development of the regional knowledge economy development indicative planning method conceptual model. The methodological base of the research is the knowledge economy concept and supply and demand theory, the methods of comparative and system analysis and theoretical modeling; common generalization and classification methods and regression models are used in the work. As a result, we managed to create the regional knowledge economy development indicative planning method conceptual model, which includes the choice of the types of indicative plans and the justification for the complex of indicators according to the stated requirements to this complex. The model of supply and demand for knowledge dependency from the knowledge cost, allowing to determine the acceptable range for the indicators proceeding from the demand and supply levels and their interrelation, is developed. The obtained results may be used by the regional government authorities while planning the regional innovative development and consulting companies while making the proposals for this development

  16. RISK ANALYSIS DEVELOPED MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgiana Cristina NUKINA

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Through Risk analysis developed model deciding whether control measures suitable for implementation. However, the analysis determines whether the benefits of a data control options cost more than the implementation.

  17. Application of DARLAM to Regional Haze Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koe, L. C. C.; Arellano, A. F., Jr.; McGregor, J. L.

    - The CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research limited area model (DARLAM) is applied to atmospheric transport modeling of haze in southeast Asia. The 1998 haze episode is simulated using an emission inventory derived from hotspot information and adopting removal processes based on SO2.Results show that the model is able to simulate the transport of haze in the region. The model images closely resemble the plumes of NASA Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Meteorological Service Singapore haze maps. Despite the limitation of input data, particularly for haze emissions, the three-month average pattern correlation obtained for the whole episode is 0.61. The model has also been able to reproduce the general features of transboundary air pollution over a long period of time. Predicted total particulate matter concentration also agrees reasonably well with observation.The difference in the model results from the satellite images may be attributed to the large uncertainties of emission, simplification of haze deposition and transformation mechanisms and the relatively coarse horizontal and vertical resolution adopted for this particular simulation.

  18. Sensitivity Analysis of a Land-Use Change Model with and without Agents to Assess Land Abandonment and Long-Term Re-Forestation in a Swiss Mountain Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Maria Brändle

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Land abandonment and the subsequent re-forestation are important drivers behind the loss of ecosystem services in mountain regions. Agent-based models can help to identify global change impacts on farmland abandonment and can test policy and management options to counteract this development. Realigning the representation of human decision making with time scales of ecological processes such as reforestation presents a major challenge in this context. Models either focus on the agent-specific behavior anchored in the current generation of farmers at the expense of representing longer scale environmental processes or they emphasize the simulation of long-term economic and forest developments where representation of human behavior is simplified in time and space. In this context, we compare the representation of individual and aggregated decision-making in the same model structure and by doing so address some implications of choosing short or long term time horizons in land-use modeling. Based on survey data, we integrate dynamic agents into a comparative static economic sector supply model in a Swiss mountain region. The results from an extensive sensitivity analysis show that this agent-based land-use change model can reproduce observed data correctly and that both model versions are sensitive to the same model parameters. In particular, in both models the specification of opportunity costs determines the extent of production activities and land-use changes by restricting the output space. Our results point out that the agent-based model can capture short and medium term developments in land abandonment better than the aggregated version without losing its sensitivity to important socio-economic drivers. For comparative static approaches, extensive sensitivity analysis with respect to opportunity costs, i.e., the measure of benefits forgone due to alternative uses of labor is essential for the assessment of the impact of climate change on land

  19. ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL EFFICIENCY IN CROATIA USING DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danijela Rabar

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, regional efficiency of Croatian counties is measured in three-year period (2005-2007 using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA. The set of inputs and outputs consists of seven socioeconomic indicators. Analysis is carried out using models with assumption of variable returns-to-scale. DEA identifies efficient counties as benchmark members and inefficient counties that are analyzed in detail to determine the sources and the amounts of their inefficiency in each source. To enable proper monitoring of development dynamics, window analysis is applied. Based on the results, guidelines for implementing necessary improvements to achieve efficiency are given. Analysis reveals great disparities among counties. In order to alleviate naturally, historically and politically conditioned unequal county positions over which economic policy makers do not have total control, categorical approach is introduced as an extension to the basic DEA models. This approach, combined with window analysis, changes relations among efficiency scores in favor of continental counties.

  20. D0 regional analysis center concepts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee Lueking et al.

    2003-08-12

    The D0 experiment is facing many exciting challenges providing a computing environment for its worldwide collaboration. Transparent access to data for processing and analysis has been enabled through deployment of its SAM system to collaborating sites and additional functionality will be provided soon with SAMGrid components. In order to maximize access to global storage, computational and intellectual resources, and to enable the system to scale to the large demands soon to be realized, several strategic sites have been identified as Regional Analysis Centers (RAC's). These sites play an expanded role within the system. The philosophy and function of these centers is discussed and details of their composition and operation are outlined. The plan for future additional centers is also addressed.

  1. Analysis about Selection Disruptive Innovation Model of Regional Innovation System%区域创新系统的突破性模式选择分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙兆刚

    2011-01-01

    Similar regional innovation system ignores local features, every Province need to breaking the traditional para-digm focusing on local technology needs. Competitive advantage's receipt can choose a breakthrough innovation model, in-cluding the surpass mode based on value innovation and comparison mode based on regional characteristics. It should en-force from the industrial, whole, organization, demand, order, implementation etc.%各省相似的区域创新体系忽视了本土特色,需要围绕本地科技需求突破传统范式.竞争优势的获得可以选择突破性创新模式,包括以价值创新为基石的超越战略模式和以区域特色为基础的对比战略模式,从产业、全局、组织、需求、顺序、执行几个层面实施.

  2. Brane model with two asymptotic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubo, Musongela

    2005-02-01

    Some brane models rely on a generalization of the Melvin magnetic universe including a complex scalar field among the sources. We argue that the geometric interpretation of Kip. S. Thorne of this geometry restricts the kind of potential a complex scalar field can display to keep the same asymptotic behavior. While a finite energy is not obtained for a Mexican hat potential in this interpretation, this is the case for a potential displaying a broken phase and an unbroken one. We use for technical simplicity and illustrative purposes an ad hoc potential which however shares some features with those obtained in some supergravity models. We construct a sixth dimensional cylindrically symmetric solution which has two asymptotic regions: the Melvin-like metric on one side and a flat space displaying a conical singularity on the other. The causal structure of the configuration is discussed. Unfortunately, gravity is not localized on the brane.

  3. Quantitative analysis and parametric display of regional myocardial mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eusemann, Christian D.; Bellemann, Matthias E.; Robb, Richard A.

    2000-04-01

    Quantitative assessment of regional heart motion has significant potential for more accurate diagnosis of heart disease and/or cardiac irregularities. Local heart motion may be studied from medical imaging sequences. Using functional parametric mapping, regional myocardial motion during a cardiac cycle can be color mapped onto a deformable heart model to obtain better understanding of the structure- to-function relationships in the myocardium, including regional patterns of akinesis or diskinesis associated with ischemia or infarction. In this study, 3D reconstructions were obtained from the Dynamic Spatial Reconstructor at 15 time points throughout one cardiac cycle of pre-infarct and post-infarct hearts. Deformable models were created from the 3D images for each time point of the cardiac cycles. Form these polygonal models, regional excursions and velocities of each vertex representing a unit of myocardium were calculated for successive time-intervals. The calculated results were visualized through model animations and/or specially formatted static images. The time point of regional maximum velocity and excursion of myocardium through the cardiac cycle was displayed using color mapping. The absolute value of regional maximum velocity and maximum excursion were displayed in a similar manner. Using animations, the local myocardial velocity changes were visualized as color changes on the cardiac surface during the cardiac cycle. Moreover, the magnitude and direction of motion for individual segments of myocardium could be displayed. Comparison of these dynamic parametric displays suggest that the ability to encode quantitative functional information on dynamic cardiac anatomy enhances the diagnostic value of 4D images of the heart. Myocardial mechanics quantified this way adds a new dimension to the analysis of cardiac functional disease, including regional patterns of akinesis and diskinesis associated with ischemia and infarction. Similarly, disturbances in

  4. Seismicity analysis in Indonesia region from high precision hypocenter location

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugraha, Andri; Shiddiqi, Hasbi; Widiyantoro, Sri; Ramdhan, Mohamad; Wandono, Wandono

    2015-04-01

    As a complex tectonic region, Indonesia has a high seismicity rate which is related to subduction and collision as well as strike-slip fault. High-precision earthquake locations with adequate relocation method and proper velocity model are necessary for seismicity analysis. We used nearly 25,000 earthquakes that were relocated using double-difference method. In our relocation process, we employed teleseismic, regional, and local P-wave arrival times. Furthermore, we employed regional-global nested velocity models that take into account the subduction slab in the study region by using a 3D model for area inside and a 1D model for area outside Indonesia. Relocation results show shifted hypocenters that are generally perpendicular to the trench. Beneath western Sunda arc, the Wadati-Benioff Zone (WBZ) extents to a depth of about 300 km and depicts a gently dipping slab. The WBZ beneath eastern Sunda arc extends deeper to about 500 km and depicts a steep slab geometry. In the Sunda-Banda transition zone, we found anomalously low seismicity beneath the oceanic-continental transition region. The WBZ of the severely curved Banda arc extends to a depth of about 600 km and depicts a two-slab model. In the Molucca collision zone, seismicity clearly depicts two opposing slabs of the Molucca sea plate, i.e. to the east and to the west. Around Sulawesi region, most earthquakes are related to the north Sulawesi trench and depict subducted slab beneath the northern part of the island. In Sumatra region, we identified a seismic gap in the WBZ between 70 km and 150 km. Seismicity gaps are also detected beneath particular regions, e.g. Mentawai region, and several parts along the subducted slab. Similar to the Sumatra region, beneath eastern Sunda arc, seismic gap in WBZ is also detected but deeper, i.e. at depths of 150 km to 250 km. Furthermore, we used global centroid moment tensor catalog data available for earthquakes with magnitude 5.0 or greater. In general, focal mechanism

  5. Regressional modeling and forecasting of economic growth for arkhangelsk region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Mikhailovich Nizhegorodtsev

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The regression models of GRP, considering the impact of three main factors: investment in fixed assets, wages amount, and, importantly, the innovation factor –the expenditures for research and development, are constructed in this paper on the empirical data for Arkhangelsk region. That approach permits to evaluate explicitly the contribution of innovation to economic growth. Regression analysis is the main research instrument, all calculations areperformedin the Microsoft Excel. There were made meaningful conclusions regarding the potential of the region's GRP growth by various factors, including impacts of positive and negative time lags. Adequate and relevant models are the base for estimation and forecasting values of the dependent variable (GRP and evaluating their confidence intervals. The invented method of research can be used in factor assessment and prediction of regional economic growth, including growth by expectations.

  6. Can a regional climate model reproduce observed extreme temperatures?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter F. Craigmile

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Using output from a regional Swedish climate model and observations from the Swedish synoptic observational network, we compare seasonal minimum temperatures from model output and observations using marginal extreme value modeling techniques. We make seasonal comparisons using generalized extreme value models and empirically estimate the shift in the distribution as a function of the regional climate model values, using the Doksum shift function. Spatial and temporal comparisons over south central Sweden are made by building hierarchical Bayesian generalized extreme value models for the observed minima and regional climate model output. Generally speaking the regional model is surprisingly well calibrated for minimum temperatures. We do detect a problem in the regional model to produce minimum temperatures close to 0◦C. The seasonal spatial effects are quite similar between data and regional model. The observations indicate relatively strong warming, especially in the northern region. This signal is present in the regional model, but is not as strong.

  7. Regional atmospheric composition modeling with CHIMERE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menut, L.; Bessagnet, B.; Khvorostyanov, D.; Beekmann, M.; Colette, A.; Coll, I.; Curci, G.; Foret, G.; Hodzic, A.; Mailler, S.; Meleux, F.; Monge, J.-L.; Pison, I.; Turquety, S.; Valari, M.; Vautard, R.; Vivanco, M. G.

    2013-01-01

    Tropospheric trace gas and aerosol pollutants have adverse effects on health, environment and climate. In order to quantify and mitigate such effects, a wide range of processes leading to the formation and transport of pollutants must be considered, understood and represented in numerical models. Regional scale pollution episodes result from the combination of several factors: high emissions (from anthropogenic or natural sources), stagnant meteorological conditions, velocity and efficiency of the chemistry and the deposition. All these processes are highly variable in time and space, and their relative importance to the pollutants budgets can be quantified within a chemistry-transport models (CTM). The offline CTM CHIMERE model uses meteorological model fields and emissions fluxes and calculates deterministically their behavior in the troposphere. The calculated three-dimensional fields of chemical concentrations can be compared to measurements to analyze past periods or used to make air quality forecasts and CHIMERE has enabled a fine understanding of pollutants transport during numerous measurements campaigns. It is a part of the PREVAIR french national forecast platform, delivering pollutant concentrations up to three days in advance. The model also allows scenario studies and long term simulations for pollution trends. The modelling of photochemical air pollution has reached a good level of maturity, and the latest projects involving CHIMERE now aim at increasing our understanding of pollution impact on health at the urban scale or at the other end of the spectrum for long term air quality and climate change interlinkage studies, quantifying the emissions and transport of pollen, but also, at a larger scale, analyzing the transport of pollutants plumes emitted by volcanic eruptions and forest fires.

  8. Custom map projections for regional groundwater models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuniansky, Eve L.

    2017-01-01

    For regional groundwater flow models (areas greater than 100,000 km2), improper choice of map projection parameters can result in model error for boundary conditions dependent on area (recharge or evapotranspiration simulated by application of a rate using cell area from model discretization) and length (rivers simulated with head-dependent flux boundary). Smaller model areas can use local map coordinates, such as State Plane (United States) or Universal Transverse Mercator (correct zone) without introducing large errors. Map projections vary in order to preserve one or more of the following properties: area, shape, distance (length), or direction. Numerous map projections are developed for different purposes as all four properties cannot be preserved simultaneously. Preservation of area and length are most critical for groundwater models. The Albers equal-area conic projection with custom standard parallels, selected by dividing the length north to south by 6 and selecting standard parallels 1/6th above or below the southern and northern extent, preserves both area and length for continental areas in mid latitudes oriented east-west. Custom map projection parameters can also minimize area and length error in non-ideal projections. Additionally, one must also use consistent vertical and horizontal datums for all geographic data. The generalized polygon for the Floridan aquifer system study area (306,247.59 km2) is used to provide quantitative examples of the effect of map projections on length and area with different projections and parameter choices. Use of improper map projection is one model construction problem easily avoided.

  9. Regional atmospheric composition modeling with CHIMERE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Menut

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropospheric trace gas and aerosol pollutants have adverse effects on health, environment and climate. In order to quantify and mitigate such effects, a wide range of processes leading to the formation and transport of pollutants must be considered, understood and represented in numerical models. Regional scale pollution episodes result from the combination of several factors: high emissions (from anthropogenic or natural sources, stagnant meteorological conditions, velocity and efficiency of the chemistry and the deposition. All these processes are highly variable in time and space, and their relative importance to the pollutants budgets can be quantified within a chemistry-transport models (CTM. The offline CTM CHIMERE model uses meteorological model fields and emissions fluxes and calculates deterministically their behavior in the troposphere. The calculated three-dimensional fields of chemical concentrations can be compared to measurements to analyze past periods or used to make air quality forecasts and CHIMERE has enabled a fine understanding of pollutants transport during numerous measurements campaigns. It is a part of the PREVAIR french national forecast platform, delivering pollutant concentrations up to three days in advance. The model also allows scenario studies and long term simulations for pollution trends. The modelling of photochemical air pollution has reached a good level of maturity, and the latest projects involving CHIMERE now aim at increasing our understanding of pollution impact on health at the urban scale or at the other end of the spectrum for long term air quality and climate change interlinkage studies, quantifying the emissions and transport of pollen, but also, at a larger scale, analyzing the transport of pollutants plumes emitted by volcanic eruptions and forest fires.

  10. Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the clue-s model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.; Soepboer, W.; Veldkamp, A.; Limpiada, R.; Espaldon, V.; Mastura, S.S.A.

    2002-01-01

    Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S

  11. Regionalized rainfall-runoff model to estimate low flow indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Florine; Folton, Nathalie; Oudin, Ludovic

    2016-04-01

    Estimating low flow indices is of paramount importance to manage water resources and risk assessments. These indices are derived from river discharges which are measured at gauged stations. However, the lack of observations at ungauged sites bring the necessity of developing methods to estimate these low flow indices from observed discharges in neighboring catchments and from catchment characteristics. Different estimation methods exist. Regression or geostatistical methods performed on the low flow indices are the most common types of methods. Another less common method consists in regionalizing rainfall-runoff model parameters, from catchment characteristics or by spatial proximity, to estimate low flow indices from simulated hydrographs. Irstea developed GR2M-LoiEau, a conceptual monthly rainfall-runoff model, combined with a regionalized model of snow storage and melt. GR2M-LoiEau relies on only two parameters, which are regionalized and mapped throughout France. This model allows to cartography monthly reference low flow indices. The inputs data come from SAFRAN, the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system, which provides daily solid and liquid precipitation and temperature data from everywhere in the French territory. To exploit fully these data and to estimate daily low flow indices, a new version of GR-LoiEau has been developed at a daily time step. The aim of this work is to develop and regionalize a GR-LoiEau model that can provide any daily, monthly or annual estimations of low flow indices, yet keeping only a few parameters, which is a major advantage to regionalize them. This work includes two parts. On the one hand, a daily conceptual rainfall-runoff model is developed with only three parameters in order to simulate daily and monthly low flow indices, mean annual runoff and seasonality. On the other hand, different regionalization methods, based on spatial proximity and similarity, are tested to estimate the model parameters and to simulate

  12. Traffic Analysis Zones, This Layer was created by ARC's Transportation Planning Division to identify Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) in the 20-county Atlanta Region. These TAZs represent the geography used in the ongoing transportation modeling for the Envision 6 forecast series (, Published in 2006, 1:100000 (1in=8333ft) scale, Atlanta Regional Commission.

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Regional | GIS Inventory — Traffic Analysis Zones dataset current as of 2006. This Layer was created by ARC's Transportation Planning Division to identify Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) in the...

  13. Modelling of clumpy photon dominated regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cubick, M.; Röllig, M.; Ossenkopf, V.; Kramer, C.; Stutzki, J.

    Observations of the interstellar medium (ISM) reveal its fractal structure over a large range of scales. The quantitative description shows that the ISM consists mainly of surfaces, so that the stellar UV-radiation can deeply penetrate into the ISM and in consequence dominates its physical and chemical conditions. Thus, the bulk of the ISM can be identified as photon dominated regions (PDRs). A simple model with the proper fractal characteristics is that of an ensemble of spherical clumps with a power-law mass spectrum and a power-law mass-size relation. Hence, we model the FIR line emission of the molecular gas by the integrated emission of such an ensemble, calculating the emission of individual clumps with the KOSMA-τ PDR code. This clumpy PDR-model, with observationally constrained parameters, is fitted to the CO, [C i], and [O i] emission along the Galactic plane as observed by the FIRAS instrument abord the COBE satellite. The FIR line intensity distribution with Galactic longitude is reproduced within factors of about 2. The predicted [C ii] 158 μm line intensity and FIR continuum emission also coincide with the observations.

  14. Damage Tensor Analysis on Regional Seismic Status

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhong Jimao; Cheng Wanzheng

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we researched the regional seismic status by using theories of the Damage Mechanics. The macroscopic damage status of the earth crust block, which is caused by earthquake fracture, is described with several concepts-the damage degree, the damage rate and the strain rate. In the earthquake process, the average strain rate of the studied block is equal to the sum of all seismic moment tensors of the earthquakes taking place in unit time and physical volume. To describe the anisotropy of microdamage of the crust block, we use the damage tensor that is expressed in the fissure density. By means of the transformation from the focal coordinate system to the observation system, we obtained the external normal vector of the focal fault plane expressed in its observation system and obtained the macrodamage degree of the researched block, which is calculated in dyadic. This provides a new analysis method for recognizing the underground damage status and the stress status.

  15. Modeling Urban Spatial Growth in Mountainous Regions of Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoping Huang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The scale and speed of urbanization in the mountainous regions of western China have received little attention from researchers. These cities are facing rapid population growth and severe environmental degradation. This study analyzed historical urban growth trends in this mountainous region to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth pattern and the mountainous topography. Three major factors—slope, accessibility, and land use type—were studied in light of their relationships with urban spatial growth. With the analysis of historical data as the basis, a conceptual urban spatial growth model was devised. In this model, slope, accessibility, and land use type together create resistance to urban growth, while accessibility controls the sequence of urban development. The model was tested and evaluated using historical data. It serves as a potential tool for planners to envision and assess future urban growth scenarios and their potential environmental impacts to make informed decisions.

  16. Regional hyperthermia applicator design using FDTD modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeze, H; Van de Kamer, J B; De Leeuw, A A; Lagendijk, J J

    2001-07-01

    Recently published results confirm the positive effect of regional hyperthermia combined with external radiotherapy on pelvic tumours. Several studies have been published on the improvement of RF annular array applicator systems with dipoles and a closed water bolus. This study investigates the performance of a next-generation applicator system for regional hyperthermia with a multi-ring annular array of antennas and an open water bolus. A cavity slot antenna is introduced to enhance the directivity and reduce mutual coupling between the antennas. Several design parameters, i.e. dimensions, number of antennas and operating frequency, have been evaluated using several patient models. Performance indices have been defined to evaluate the effect of parameter variation on the specific absorption rate (SAR) distribution. The performance of the new applicator type is compared with the Coaxial TEM. Operating frequency appears to be the main parameter with a positive influence on the performance. A SAR increase in tumour of 1.7 relative to the Coaxial TEM system can be obtained with a three-ring, six-antenna per ring cavity slot applicator operating at 150 MHz.

  17. Multi-scaling allometric analysis for urban and regional development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yanguang

    2017-01-01

    The concept of allometric growth is based on scaling relations, and it has been applied to urban and regional analysis for a long time. However, most allometric analyses were devoted to the single proportional relation between two elements of a geographical system. Few researches focus on the allometric scaling of multielements. In this paper, a process of multiscaling allometric analysis is developed for the studies on spatio-temporal evolution of complex systems. By means of linear algebra, general system theory, and by analogy with the analytical hierarchy process, the concepts of allometric growth can be integrated with the ideas from fractal dimension. Thus a new methodology of geo-spatial analysis and the related theoretical models emerge. Based on the least squares regression and matrix operations, a simple algorithm is proposed to solve the multiscaling allometric equation. Applying the analytical method of multielement allometry to Chinese cities and regions yields satisfying results. A conclusion is reached that the multiscaling allometric analysis can be employed to make a comprehensive evaluation for the relative levels of urban and regional development, and explain spatial heterogeneity. The notion of multiscaling allometry may enrich the current theory and methodology of spatial analyses of urban and regional evolution.

  18. Customization of regional climate model (RegCM4) over Indian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, S.; Mandal, M.; Maity, S.

    2017-01-01

    The regional climate model (RegCM4) is customized for 10-year climate simulation over Indian region through sensitivity studies on cumulus convection and land surface parameterization schemes. The model is configured over 30° E-120° E and 15° S-45° N at 30-km horizontal resolution with 23 vertical levels. Six 10-year (1991-2000) simulations are conducted with the combinations of two land surface schemes (BATS, CLM3.5) and three cumulus convection schemes (Kuo, Grell, MIT). The simulated annual and seasonal climatology of surface temperature and precipitation are compared with CRU observations. The interannual variability of these two parameters is also analyzed. The results indicate that the model simulated climatology is sensitive to the convection as well as land surface parameterization. The analysis of surface temperature (precipitation) climatology indicates that the model with CLM produces warmer (dryer) climatology, particularly over India. The warmer (dryer) climatology is due to the higher sensible heat flux (lower evapotranspiration) in CLM. The model with MIT convection scheme simulated wetter and warmer climatology (higher precipitation and temperature) with smaller Bowen ratio over southern India compared to that with the Grell and Kuo schemes. This indicates that a land surface scheme produces warmer but drier climatology with sensible heating contributing to warming where as a convection scheme warmer but wetter climatology with latent heat contributing to warming. The climatology of surface temperature over India is better simulated by the model with BATS land surface model in combination with MIT convection scheme while the precipitation climatology is better simulated with BATS land surface model in combination with Grell convection scheme. Overall, the modeling system with the combination of Grell convection and BATS land surface scheme provides better climate simulation over the Indian region.

  19. Flexible expressed region analysis for RNA-seq with derfinder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collado-Torres, Leonardo; Nellore, Abhinav; Frazee, Alyssa C.; Wilks, Christopher; Love, Michael I.; Langmead, Ben; Irizarry, Rafael A.; Leek, Jeffrey T.; Jaffe, Andrew E.

    2017-01-01

    Differential expression analysis of RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data typically relies on reconstructing transcripts or counting reads that overlap known gene structures. We previously introduced an intermediate statistical approach called differentially expressed region (DER) finder that seeks to identify contiguous regions of the genome showing differential expression signal at single base resolution without relying on existing annotation or potentially inaccurate transcript assembly. We present the derfinder software that improves our annotation-agnostic approach to RNA-seq analysis by: (i) implementing a computationally efficient bump-hunting approach to identify DERs that permits genome-scale analyses in a large number of samples, (ii) introducing a flexible statistical modeling framework, including multi-group and time-course analyses and (iii) introducing a new set of data visualizations for expressed region analysis. We apply this approach to public RNA-seq data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project and BrainSpan project to show that derfinder permits the analysis of hundreds of samples at base resolution in R, identifies expression outside of known gene boundaries and can be used to visualize expressed regions at base-resolution. In simulations, our base resolution approaches enable discovery in the presence of incomplete annotation and is nearly as powerful as feature-level methods when the annotation is complete. derfinder analysis using expressed region-level and single base-level approaches provides a compromise between full transcript reconstruction and feature-level analysis. The package is available from Bioconductor at www.bioconductor.org/packages/derfinder. PMID:27694310

  20. Airport choice model in multiple airport regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Muñoz

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study aims to analyze travel choices made by air transportation users in multi airport regions because it is a crucial component when planning passenger redistribution policies. The purpose of this study is to find a utility function which makes it possible to know the variables that influence users’ choice of the airports on routes to the main cities in the Colombian territory. Design/methodology/approach: This research generates a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, which is based on the theory of maximizing utility, and it is based on the data obtained on revealed and stated preference surveys applied to users who reside in the metropolitan area of Aburrá Valley (Colombia. This zone is the only one in the Colombian territory which has two neighboring airports for domestic flights. The airports included in the modeling process were Enrique Olaya Herrera (EOH Airport and José María Córdova (JMC Airport. Several structure models were tested, and the MNL proved to be the most significant revealing the common variables that affect passenger airport choice include the airfare, the price to travel the airport, and the time to get to the airport. Findings and Originality/value: The airport choice model which was calibrated corresponds to a valid powerful tool used to calculate the probability of each analyzed airport of being chosen for domestic flights in the Colombian territory. This is done bearing in mind specific characteristic of each of the attributes contained in the utility function. In addition, these probabilities will be used to calculate future market shares of the two airports considered in this study, and this will be done generating a support tool for airport and airline marketing policies.

  1. The WAMME regional model intercomparison study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew [Columbia University and NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, CCSR, New York (United States); Feng, Jinming [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); University of California at Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Cook, Kerry H. [The University of Texas at Austin, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX (United States); Xue, Yongkang [University of California at Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Hagos, Samson M. [University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, FL (United States); Konare, Abdourahamane [University of Cocody, Laboratoire de Physique Atmospherique, Abidjan (Ivory Coast); Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Rowell, David P. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Vizy, Edward K. [The University of Texas at Austin, Institute for Geophysics, Austin, TX (United States); Ibrah, Seidou Sanda [Universite Abdou Moumouni, Department of Physics, Niamey (Niger)

    2010-07-15

    Results from five regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME) initiative are analyzed. The RCMs were driven by boundary conditions from National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis II data sets and observed sea-surface temperatures (SST) over four May-October seasons, (2000 and 2003-2005). In addition, the simulations were repeated with two of the RCMs, except that lateral boundary conditions were derived from a continuous global climate model (GCM) simulation forced with observed SST data. RCM and GCM simulations of precipitation, surface air temperature and circulation are compared to each other and to observational evidence. Results demonstrate a range of RCM skill in representing the mean summer climate and the timing of monsoon onset. Four of the five models generate positive precipitation biases and all simulate negative surface air temperature biases over broad areas. RCM spatial patterns of June-September mean precipitation over the Sahel achieve spatial correlations with observational analyses of about 0.90, but within two areas south of 10 N the correlations average only about 0.44. The mean spatial correlation coefficient between RCM and observed surface air temperature over West Africa is 0.88. RCMs show a range of skill in simulating seasonal mean zonal wind and meridional moisture advection and two RCMs overestimate moisture convergence over West Africa. The 0.5 computing grid enables three RCMs to detect local minima related to high topography in seasonal mean meridional moisture advection. Sensitivity to lateral boundary conditions differs between the two RCMs for which this was assessed. The benefits of dynamic downscaling the GCM seasonal climate prediction are analyzed and discussed. (orig.)

  2. An Analysis of Pig Production Efficiency and Regional Differences in China Based on Malmquist-DEA Model and Inter-provincial Panel Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yuanyuan ZHANG; Shimin SUN

    2015-01-01

    Pig production efficiency and its regional differences in China have strategic importance to the transformation of pig production mode and optimization of pig production layout in China. In this paper,Malmquist-DEA model is adopted to analyze the statistical data; TFP and its decomposition indicators of different pig breeding scale among the top ten pig producing provinces are calculated; both horizontal and longitudinal comparisons are made. Results show that among different pig breeding scales,free-range breeding scale is dominant in Hunan,small breeding scale is dominant in Sichuan,medium breeding scale is dominant in Sichuan and Hunan,and large breeding scale is dominant in Sichuan,Shandong and Jiangsu; among the provinces,pig production efficiency varies with breeding scale,and small-scale pig breeding in Sichuan,Guangdong and Hebei,free-range and medium-scale pig breeding in Hunan,medium-scale pig breeding in Henan and Yunnan,largescale pig breeding in the rest of the provinces,have significant efficiency advantage.

  3. Spatial uncertainty assessment in modelling reference evapotranspiration at regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Buttafuoco

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Evapotranspiration is one of the major components of the water balance and has been identified as a key factor in hydrological modelling. For this reason, several methods have been developed to calculate the reference evapotranspiration (ET0. In modelling reference evapotranspiration it is inevitable that both model and data input will present some uncertainty. Whatever model is used, the errors in the input will propagate to the output of the calculated ET0. Neglecting information about estimation uncertainty, however, may lead to improper decision-making and water resources management. One geostatistical approach to spatial analysis is stochastic simulation, which draws alternative and equally probable, realizations of a regionalized variable. Differences between the realizations provide a measure of spatial uncertainty and allow to carry out an error propagation analysis. Among the evapotranspiration models, the Hargreaves-Samani model was used.

    The aim of this paper was to assess spatial uncertainty of a monthly reference evapotranspiration model resulting from the uncertainties in the input attributes (mainly temperature at regional scale. A case study was presented for Calabria region (southern Italy. Temperature data were jointly simulated by conditional turning bands simulation with elevation as external drift and 500 realizations were generated.

    The ET0 was then estimated for each set of the 500 realizations of the input variables, and the ensemble of the model outputs was used to infer the reference evapotranspiration probability distribution function. This approach allowed to delineate the areas characterized by greater uncertainty, to improve supplementary sampling strategies and ET0 value predictions.

  4. Ground Motion Prediction Models for Caucasus Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorjiashvili, Nato; Godoladze, Tea; Tvaradze, Nino; Tumanova, Nino

    2016-04-01

    Ground motion prediction models (GMPMs) relate ground motion intensity measures to variables describing earthquake source, path, and site effects. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. The most commonly used parameter for attenuation relation is peak ground acceleration or spectral acceleration because this parameter gives useful information for Seismic Hazard Assessment. Since 2003 development of Georgian Digital Seismic Network has started. In this study new GMP models are obtained based on new data from Georgian seismic network and also from neighboring countries. Estimation of models is obtained by classical, statistical way, regression analysis. In this study site ground conditions are additionally considered because the same earthquake recorded at the same distance may cause different damage according to ground conditions. Empirical ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) require adjustment to make them appropriate for site-specific scenarios. However, the process of making such adjustments remains a challenge. This work presents a holistic framework for the development of a peak ground acceleration (PGA) or spectral acceleration (SA) GMPE that is easily adjustable to different seismological conditions and does not suffer from the practical problems associated with adjustments in the response spectral domain.

  5. Photoionisation modelling of the broad line region

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Anthea

    2016-08-01

    Two of the most fundamental questions regarding the broad line region (BLR) are "what is its structure?" and "how is it moving?" Baldwin et al. (1995) showed that by summing over an ensemble of clouds at differing densities and distances from the ionising source we can easily and naturally produce a spectrum similar to what is observed for AGN. This approach is called the `locally optimally emitting clouds' (LOC) model. This approach can also explain the well-observed stratification of emission lines in the BLR (e.g. Clavel et al. 1991, Peterson et al. 1991, Kollatschny et al. 2001) and `breathing' of BLR with changes in the continuum luminosity (Netzer & Mor 1990, Peterson et al. 2014) and is therefore a generally accepted model of the BLR. However, LOC predictions require some assumptions to be made about the distribution of the clouds within the BLR. By comparing photoionization predictions, for a distribution of cloud properties, with observed spectra we can infer something about the structure of the BLR and distribution of clouds. I use existing reverberation mapping data to constrain the structure of the BLR by observing how individual line strengths and ratios of different lines change in high and low luminosity states. I will present my initial constraints and discuss the challenges associated with the method.

  6. Regional air quality modeling: North American and European perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steyn, D.; Builtjes, P.; Schaap, M.; Yarwood, G.

    2013-01-01

    An overview of regional-scale quality modeling practices and perspectives in North America and Europe, highlighting the differences and commonalities in how regional-scale air quality modeling systems are being used and evaluated across both continents

  7. Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation for Sicily (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forestieri, Angelo; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley; Lo Conti, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    The analysis of extreme precipitation has always been included among most relevant hydrological applications because of the several important activities linked to the availability of tools for the estimation of extreme rainfall quantiles. These activities include the design of hydraulic civil structures and the evaluation and management of hydraulic and hydrological risk. In this study a frequency analysis of annual maxima precipitation measurements has been carried out for the area of Sicily (Italy). A typical hierarchical regional approach has been adopted for the parameter estimation procedure based on the L-moments method. The identification of homogeneous regions within the procedure has been pursued with a data driven procedure constituted by a principal component analysis of an ensemble of selected auxiliary variables, and a K-means cluster analysis algorithm. Auxiliary variables comprise meteo-climatic information and a representation of the average seasonal distribution of intense events. Results have been evaluated by means of a Monte Carlo experiment based on the comparison between at-site and regional fitted frequency distributions. Moreover, results have been compared with previous analyses performed for the same area. The study provides an updated tool for the modelling of extreme precipitation for the area of Sicily (Italy), with different features respect to previous tools both in terms of definition of homogeneous zones and in terms of parameters of the frequency distribution. Meteo-climatic information and the seasonality of extreme events retrieved from the dataset has been proficuously exploited in the analysis.

  8. Regional landslide hazard assessment based on Distance Evaluation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jiacun LI; Yan QIN; Jing LI

    2008-01-01

    There are many factors influencing landslide occurrence. The key for landslide control is to confirm the regional landslide hazard factors. The Cameron Highlands of Malaysia was selected as the study area. By bivariate statistical analysis method with GIS software the authors analyzed the relationships among landslides and environmental factors such as lithology, geomorphy, elevation, road and land use. Distance Evaluation Model was developed with Landslide Density(LD). And the assessment of landslide hazard of Cameron Highlands was performed. The result shows that the model has higher prediction precision.

  9. Supra regional ground water modelling - in-depth analysis of the groundwater flow patterns in eastern Smaaland. Comparison with different conceptual descriptions; Storregional grundvattenmodellering - foerdjupad analys av floedesfoerhaallanden i oestra Smaaland. Jaemfoerelse av olika konceptuella beskrivningar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ericsson, Lars O. [Lars O Ericsson Consulting AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Holmen, Johan [Golder Associates, Uppsala (Sweden); Rhen, Ingvar; Blomquist, Niklas [SWECO VIAK, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2006-05-15

    One of many geoscientific questions in connection with the siting of a final repository for spent nuclear fuel in Sweden has to do with understanding the large-scale flow patterns of the naturally circulating groundwater. The recharge and discharge of the groundwater is therefore a subject for both SKB's research activities and the interest of the regulatory authorities. This report aims at providing an in-depth scientific analysis of the groundwater flow pattern based on the criteria and suitability indicators which SKB has previously presented with respect to recharge and discharge aspects in a supra regional perspective. The analysis was conducted within the framework of a project whose goals were to: evaluate conceptual simplifications and model uncertainties in supra regional groundwater modelling, and to carry out an in-depth and comprehensive analysis of regional flow conditions in eastern Smaaland. Achieving these goals has required an approach based on the use of available geoscientific data on the Smaaland region combined with an analysis of different conceptual assumptions and system descriptions. The following general conclusions can be drawn from the study and the applied methodology: The factor of greatest importance for the regional flow pattern (from repository depth) is the topography. The discharge areas are mainly found in the low-lying parts of the topography, along valleys, and the recharge areas occur on the heights. The topographic undulation is of greater importance than the properties of the conductivity field. Different lithological units, regional deformation zones, local heterogeneity, Quaternary deposits etc are of less importance than the undulation of the topography. For areas described and analyzed with the most realistic assumptions, the groundwater flow pattern can be described as a primarily local flow process. The median flow path length in the study is on the order of 2 km, and the fraction of supra regional flow paths

  10. Regional gravity field modelling from GOCE observables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitoňák, Martin; Šprlák, Michal; Novák, Pavel; Tenzer, Robert

    2017-01-01

    In this article we discuss a regional recovery of gravity disturbances at the mean geocentric sphere approximating the Earth over the area of Central Europe from satellite gravitational gradients. For this purpose, we derive integral formulas which allow converting the gravity disturbances onto the disturbing gravitational gradients in the local north-oriented frame (LNOF). The derived formulas are free of singularities in case of r ≠ R . We then investigate three numerical approaches for solving their inverses. In the initial approach, the integral formulas are firstly modified for solving individually the near- and distant-zone contributions. While the effect of the near-zone gravitational gradients is solved as an inverse problem, the effect of the distant-zone gravitational gradients is computed by numerical integration from the global gravitational model (GGM) TIM-r4. In the second approach, we further elaborate the first scenario by reducing measured gravitational gradients for gravitational effects of topographic masses. In the third approach, we apply additional modification by reducing gravitational gradients for the reference GGM. In all approaches we determine the gravity disturbances from each of the four accurately measured gravitational gradients separately as well as from their combination. Our regional gravitational field solutions are based on the GOCE EGG_TRF_2 gravitational gradients collected within the period from November 1 2009 until January 11 2010. Obtained results are compared with EGM2008, DIR-r1, TIM-r1 and SPW-r1. The best fit, in terms of RMS (2.9 mGal), is achieved for EGM2008 while using the third approach which combine all four well-measured gravitational gradients. This is explained by the fact that a-priori information about the Earth's gravitational field up to the degree and order 180 was used.

  11. CHIMERE 2013: a model for regional atmospheric composition modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Menut

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Tropospheric trace gas and aerosol pollutants have adverse effects on health, environment and climate. In order to quantify and mitigate such effects, a wide range of processes leading to the formation and transport of pollutants must be considered, understood and represented in numerical models. Regional scale pollution episodes result from the combination of several factors: high emissions (from anthropogenic or natural sources, stagnant meteorological conditions, kinetics and efficiency of the chemistry and the deposition. All these processes are highly variable in time and space, and their relative contribution to the pollutants budgets can be quantified with chemistry-transport models. The CHIMERE chemistry-transport model is dedicated to regional atmospheric pollution event studies. Since it has now reached a certain level a maturity, the new stable version, CHIMERE 2013, is described to provide a reference model paper. The successive developments of the model are reviewed on the basis of published investigations that are referenced in order to discuss the scientific choices and to provide an overview of the main results.

  12. Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Joshua P.; McGinnis, Seth; Schwartzman, Armin

    2017-07-01

    We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

  13. Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. French

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

  14. Numerical modeling of land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal in Aguascalientes Valley using regional coefficients of deformation determined by InSAR analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacheco, J.; Cabral, E.; Wdowinski, S.; Hernandez-Marin, M.; Ortíz, J. Á.; Solano Rojas, D. E.; Oliver-Cabrera, T.

    2014-12-01

    Land subsidence due to groundwater over-exploitation is a deformation process affecting many cities around the world. This type of subsidence develops gradual vertical deformations reaching only a few centimeters per year, but can affect large areas. Consequently, inhabitants of subsiding areas are not aware of the process until others effects are observed, such as ground surface faulting, damage to building, or changes in the natural superficial drain. In order to mitigate and forecast subsidence consequences, it is useful to conduct numerical modeling of the subsidence process. Modeling the subsidence includes the following three basic tasks: a) Delimitation of the shape of the deforming body; b) Determination of the forces that are causing the deformations; and c) Determination of the mechanical properties of the deforming body according with an accepted rheological model. In the case of a land subsidence process, the deforming body is the aquifer system that is being drained. Usually, stratigraphic information from pumping wells, and other geophysical data are used to define the boundaries and shape of the aquifer system. The deformation governing forces, or stresses, can be calculated using the theory of "effective stress". Mechanical properties are usually determined with laboratory testing of samples from shallow strata, because the determination of these properties in samples from the deepest strata is economically or technically unviable. Consequently, the results of the numerical modeling do not necessarily match the observed subsidence evolution and ground faulting. We present in this work numerical simulation results of the land subsiding of the Valley of Aguascalientes, Mexico. Two analyses for the same subsiding area are presented. In the first of them, we used the mechanical properties of only the shallow strata, whereas in the second analysis we used "macroscopic" mechanical properties data determined for the whole aquifer system using In

  15. Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.

    1979-10-01

    This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

  16. Helioseismic Ring Analysis of CME Source Regions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S. C. Tripathy; S. de Wet; K. Jain; R. Clark; F. Hill

    2008-03-01

    We apply the ring diagram technique to source regions of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to study changes in acoustic mode parameters before, during, and after the onset of CMEs.We find that CME regions associated with a low value of magnetic flux have line widths smaller than the quiet regions, implying a longer life-time for the oscillation modes. We suggest that this criterion may be used to forecast the active regions which may trigger CMEs.

  17. Process analysis of regional aerosol pollution during spring in the Pearl River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qi; Lan, Jing; Liu, Yiming; Wang, Xuemei; Chan, Pakwai; Hong, Yingying; Feng, Yerong; Liu, Yexin; Zeng, Yanjun; Liang, Guixiong

    2015-12-01

    A numerical simulation analysis was performed for three air pollution episodes in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region during March 2012 using the third-generation air quality modeling system Models-3/CMAQ. The results demonstrated that particulate matter was the primary pollutant for all three pollution episodes and was accompanied by relatively low visibility in the first two episodes. Weather maps indicate that the first two episodes occurred under the influence of warm, wet southerly air flow systems that led to high humidity throughout the region. The liquid phase reaction of gaseous pollutants resulted in the generation of fine secondary particles, which were identified as the primary source of pollution in the first two episodes. The third pollution episode occurred during a warming period following a cold front. Relative humidity was lower during this episode, and coarse particles were the major pollution contributor. Results of process analysis indicated that emissions sources, horizontal transport and vertical transport were the primary factors affecting pollutant concentrations within the near-surface layer during all three episodes, while aerosol processes, cloud processes, horizontal transport and vertical transport had greater influence at approximately 900 m above ground. Cloud processes had a greater impact during the first two pollution episodes because of the higher relative humidity. In addition, by comparing pollution processes from different cities (Guangzhou and Zhongshan), the study revealed that the first two pollution episodes were the result of local emissions within the PRD region and transport between surrounding cities, while the third episode exhibited prominent regional pollution characteristics and was the result of regional pollutant transport.

  18. Structural Analysis of the ITER VV Lower Port Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAI Yingxiang; WU Songtao; YU Jie

    2007-01-01

    A structural analysis of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)vacuum vessel's lower port region Was presented by means of a finite element analysis method.The purpose is to evaluate the stress and displacement level on this structure under various combinations of five designed loads,including the gravity of the vacuum vessel,seismic loads,electromagnetic loads,and possible pressure loads to ensure structural safety.The cyclic symmetry finite element model of this structure Was developed by using ANSYS code.The results showed that the maximum stress does not exceed the allowable value for any of the load combinations according to ASME code and the nine vacuum vessel(VV)supports have the ability to sustain the entire VV and in vessel-components and withstand load combinations under both normal as well as off-normal operation conditions.Stress mainly concentrates on the connecting region of the VV support and lower port stub extension.

  19. Photoionization models of the CALIFA HII regions. I. Hybrid models

    CERN Document Server

    Morisset, C; Sánchez, S F; Galbany, L; Garcia-Benito, R; Husemann, B; Marino, R A; Mast, D; Roth, M M; Colaboration, CALIFA

    2016-01-01

    Photoionization models of HII regions require as input a description of the ionizing SED and of the gas distribution, in terms of ionization parameter U and chemical abundances (e.g. O/H and N/O). A strong degeneracy exists between the hardness of the SED and U, which in turn leads to high uncertainties in the determination of the other parameters, including abundances. One way to resolve the degeneracy is to fix one of the parameters using additional information. For each of the ~ 20000 sources of the CALIFA HII regions catalog, a grid of photoionization models is computed assuming the ionizing SED being described by the underlying stellar population obtained from spectral synthesis modeling. The ionizing SED is then defined as the sum of various stellar bursts of different ages and metallicities. This solves the degeneracy between the shape of the ionizing SED and U. The nebular metallicity (associated to O/H) is defined using the classical strong line method O3N2 (which gives to our models the status of "h...

  20. A Deomonstration Model for Needs Analysis Utilizing the Professional Activity Study and a Questionnaire for Nurses in Region II of Indiana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponzo, Kathryn M.; LeNoir, Linda

    The purpose of this study was to research needs analysis, one of the basic components of planning an educational offering for practitioners in nursing. Also demonstrated was an application of the knowledge relative to needs analysis within nursing continuing education. Needs analysis refers to a systematic assessment of what the potential…

  1. Adiabatic invariants for the regular region of the Dicke model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastarrachea-Magnani, M. A.; Relaño, A.; Lerma-Hernández, S.; López-del-Carpio, B.; Chávez-Carlos, J.; Hirsch, J. G.

    2017-04-01

    Adiabatic invariants for the non-integrable Dicke model are introduced. They are shown to provide approximate second integrals of motion in the energy region where the system exhibits a regular dynamics. This low-energy region, present for any set of values of the Hamiltonian parameters is described both with a semiclassical and a full quantum analysis in a broad region of the parameter space. Peres lattices in this region exhibit that many observables vary smoothly with energy, along distinct lines which beg for a formal description. It is demonstrated how the adiabatic invariants provide a rationale to their presence in many cases. They are built employing the Born–Oppenheimer approximation, valid when a fast system is coupled to a much slower one. As the Dicke model has one bosonic and one fermionic degree of freedom, two versions of the approximation are used, depending on which one is the faster. In both cases a noticeably accord with exact numerical results is obtained. The employment of the adiabatic invariants provides a simple and clear theoretical framework to study the physical phenomenology associated to these regimes, far beyond the energies where a quadratic approximation around the minimal energy configuration can be used.

  2. Photoionization models for giant h ii regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gra´zyna Stasi´nska

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Revisamos las fuentes de incertidumbre en los modelos de fotoionizaci on de regiones H II gigantes. Tambi en discutimos el problema de la temperatura electr onica a la luz de los ajustes de modelos en tres regiones H II gigantes.

  3. Communication Analysis modelling techniques

    CERN Document Server

    España, Sergio; Pastor, Óscar; Ruiz, Marcela

    2012-01-01

    This report describes and illustrates several modelling techniques proposed by Communication Analysis; namely Communicative Event Diagram, Message Structures and Event Specification Templates. The Communicative Event Diagram is a business process modelling technique that adopts a communicational perspective by focusing on communicative interactions when describing the organizational work practice, instead of focusing on physical activities1; at this abstraction level, we refer to business activities as communicative events. Message Structures is a technique based on structured text that allows specifying the messages associated to communicative events. Event Specification Templates are a means to organise the requirements concerning a communicative event. This report can be useful to analysts and business process modellers in general, since, according to our industrial experience, it is possible to apply many Communication Analysis concepts, guidelines and criteria to other business process modelling notation...

  4. Interactive Building Design Space Exploration Using Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Maagaard, Steffen; Østergård, Torben

    2017-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulations combined with regionalized sensitivity analysis provide the means to explore a vast, multivariate design space in building design. Typically, sensitivity analysis shows how the variability of model output relates to the uncertainties in models inputs. This reveals which...... in combination with the interactive parallel coordinate plot (PCP). The latter is an effective tool to explore stochastic simulations and to find high-performing building designs. The proposed methods help decision makers to focus their attention to the most important design parameters when exploring...... a multivariate design space. As case study, we consider building performance simulations of a 15.000 m² educational centre with respect to energy demand, thermal comfort, and daylight....

  5. Regional analysis of ground and above-ground climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-12-01

    The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long-term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above ground climate control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dew point ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of earth tempering as a practice and of specific earth-sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically; while the subsurface almost always provides a thermal advantage on its own terms when compared to above ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate control techniques. Also contained in the report are reviews of above and below ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 29 locations in the United States.

  6. Knowledge base navigator facilitating regional analysis inter-tool communication.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hampton, Jeffery Wade; Chael, Eric Paul; Hart, Darren M.; Merchant, Bion John; Chown, Matthew N.

    2004-08-01

    To make use of some portions of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Knowledge Base (KB) for which no current operational monitoring applications were available, Sandia National Laboratories have developed a set of prototype regional analysis tools (MatSeis, EventID Tool, CodaMag Tool, PhaseMatch Tool, Dendro Tool, Infra Tool, etc.), and we continue to maintain and improve these. Individually, these tools have proven effective in addressing specific monitoring tasks, but collectively their number and variety tend to overwhelm KB users, so we developed another application - the KB Navigator - to launch the tools and facilitate their use for real monitoring tasks. The KB Navigator is a flexible, extensible java application that includes a browser for KB data content, as well as support to launch any of the regional analysis tools. In this paper, we will discuss the latest versions of KB Navigator and the regional analysis tools, with special emphasis on the new overarching inter-tool communication methodology that we have developed to make the KB Navigator and the tools function together seamlessly. We use a peer-to-peer communication model, which allows any tool to communicate with any other. The messages themselves are passed as serialized XML, and the conversion from Java to XML (and vice versa) is done using Java Architecture for XML Binding (JAXB).

  7. A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard

    2016-04-01

    Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

  8. Impact Analysis of Climate Change on Snow over a Complex Mountainous Region Using Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF Simulation and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Data (MODIS-Terra Fractional Snow Cover Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoduo Pan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has a complex effect on snow at the regional scale. The change in snow patterns under climate change remains unknown for certain regions. Here, we used high spatiotemporal resolution snow-related variables simulated by a weather research and forecast model (WRF including snowfall, snow water equivalent and snow depth along with fractional snow cover (FSC data extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Data (MODIS-Terra to evaluate the effects of climate change on snow over the Heihe River Basin (HRB, a typical inland river basin in arid northwestern China from 2000 to 2013. We utilized Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF analysis and Mann-Kendall/Theil-Sen trend analysis to evaluate the results. The results are as follows: (1 FSC, snow water equivalent, and snow depth across the entire HRB region decreased, especially at elevations over 4500 m; however, snowfall increased at mid-altitude ranges in the upstream area of the HRB. (2 Total snowfall also increased in the upstream area of the HRB; however, the number of snowfall days decreased. Therefore, the number of extreme snow events in the upstream area of the HRB may have increased. (3 Snowfall over the downstream area of the HRB decreased. Thus, ground stations, WRF simulations and remote sensing products can be used to effectively explore the effect of climate change on snow at the watershed scale.

  9. Modeling regionalized volumetric differences in protein-ligand binding cavities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Brian Y; Bandyopadhyay, Soutir

    2012-06-21

    Identifying elements of protein structures that create differences in protein-ligand binding specificity is an essential method for explaining the molecular mechanisms underlying preferential binding. In some cases, influential mechanisms can be visually identified by experts in structural biology, but subtler mechanisms, whose significance may only be apparent from the analysis of many structures, are harder to find. To assist this process, we present a geometric algorithm and two statistical models for identifying significant structural differences in protein-ligand binding cavities. We demonstrate these methods in an analysis of sequentially nonredundant structural representatives of the canonical serine proteases and the enolase superfamily. Here, we observed that statistically significant structural variations identified experimentally established determinants of specificity. We also observed that an analysis of individual regions inside cavities can reveal areas where small differences in shape can correspond to differences in specificity.

  10. 构建联通移动网络多维价值区域分析模型浅析%Analysis of Multidimensional Valued Region Model Construction for China Unicom Mobile Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    熊壮; 陈燕芬

    2014-01-01

    With the rapid development of mobile broad band (MBB) networks, the telecom operators should consider more and more factors in the construction, operation, maintenance and development of mobile networks. They should found region and cell multidimensional valued models. Through the dimension analysis for the factors affecting network value, the selection and decision methods of valued model are given and the valued regions are divided. In addition, the applications for valued regions are introduced and typical cases are analyzed.%移动宽带网络的快速发展,要求电信运营商在考虑移动网建设、运维、发展方面关注更多的因素,积极构建区域和小区多维度价值模型。通过对影响网络价值的维度分析,给出了价值模型选取与确定方法,划分了价值区域,并对价值区域应用进行介绍和典型案例分析。

  11. Operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kukkonen, J.; Balk, T.; Schultz, D.M.; Baklanov, A.; Klein, T.; Miranda, A.I.; Monteiro, A.; Hirtl, M.; Tarvainen, V.; Boy, M.; Peuch, V.H.; Poupkou, A.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Finardi, S.; Sofiev, M.; Sokhi, R.; Lehtinen, K.; Karatzas, K.; San José, R.; Astitha, M.; Kallos, G.; Schaap, M.; Reimer, E.; Jakobs, H.; Eben, K.

    2011-01-01

    Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed

  12. Activated region fitting: a robust high-power method for fMRI analysis using parameterized regions of activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weeda, Wouter D; Waldorp, Lourens J; Christoffels, Ingrid; Huizenga, Hilde M

    2009-08-01

    An important issue in the analysis of fMRI is how to account for the spatial smoothness of activated regions. In this article a method is proposed to accomplish this by modeling activated regions with Gaussian shapes. Hypothesis tests on the location, spatial extent, and amplitude of these regions are performed instead of hypothesis tests of individual voxels. This increases power and eases interpretation. Simulation studies show robust hypothesis tests under misspecification of the shape model, and increased power over standard techniques especially at low signal-to-noise ratios. An application to real single-subject data also indicates that the method has increased power over standard methods.

  13. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): CNMI: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI)...

  14. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Oahu South Shore

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 2-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the south shore of the island of Oahu at approximately 200-m resolution....

  15. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Main Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the main Hawaiian islands at approximately 4-km resolution. While...

  16. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Samoa: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at approximately 3-km resolution....

  17. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Main Hawaiian Islands: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the main Hawaiian islands at approximately 4-km...

  18. RELM (the Working Group for the Development of Region Earthquake Likelihood Models) and the Development of new, Open-Source, Java-Based (Object Oriented) Code for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, E. H.

    2001-12-01

    Given problems with virtually all previous earthquake-forecast models for southern California, and a current lack of consensus on how such models should be constructed, a joint SCEC-USGS sponsored working group for the development of Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) has been established (www.relm.org). The goals are as follows: 1) To develop and test a range of viable earthquake-potential models for southern California (not just one "consensus" model); 2) To examine and compare the implications of each model with respect to probabilistic seismic-hazard estimates (which will not only quantify existing hazard uncertainties, but will also indicate how future research should be focused in order to reduce the uncertainties); and 3) To design and document conclusive tests of each model with respect to existing and future geophysical observations. The variety of models under development reflects the variety of geophysical constraints available; these include geological fault information, historical seismicity, geodetic observations, stress-transfer interactions, and foreshock/aftershock statistics. One reason for developing and testing a range of models is to evaluate the extent to which any one can be exported to another region where the options are more limited. RELM is not intended to be a one-time effort. Rather, we are building an infrastructure that will facilitate an ongoing incorporation of new scientific findings into seismic-hazard models. The effort involves the development of several community models and databases, one of which is new Java-based code for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Although several different PSHA codes presently exist, none are open source, well documented, and written in an object-oriented programming language (which is ideally suited for PSHA). Furthermore, we need code that is flexible enough to accommodate the wide range of models currently under development in RELM. The new code is being developed under

  19. Hierarchical manifold learning for regional image analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatia, Kanwal K; Rao, Anil; Price, Anthony N; Wolz, Robin; Hajnal, Joseph V; Rueckert, Daniel

    2014-02-01

    We present a novel method of hierarchical manifold learning which aims to automatically discover regional properties of image datasets. While traditional manifold learning methods have become widely used for dimensionality reduction in medical imaging, they suffer from only being able to consider whole images as single data points. We extend conventional techniques by additionally examining local variations, in order to produce spatially-varying manifold embeddings that characterize a given dataset. This involves constructing manifolds in a hierarchy of image patches of increasing granularity, while ensuring consistency between hierarchy levels. We demonstrate the utility of our method in two very different settings: 1) to learn the regional correlations in motion within a sequence of time-resolved MR images of the thoracic cavity; 2) to find discriminative regions of 3-D brain MR images associated with neurodegenerative disease.

  20. Features of Balance Model Development of Exclave Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timur Rustamovich Gareev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the authors build a balance model for an exclave region. The aim of the work is to explore the unique properties of exclaves to evaluate the possibility of development of a more complex model for the economy of a region. Exclaves are strange phenomena in both theoretical and practical regional economy. There is lack of comparative models, so it is typically quite challenging to study exclaves. At the same time, exclaves produce better statistics, which gives more careful consideration of cross-regional economic flows. The authors discuss methodologies of model-based regional development forecasting. They analyze balance approach on a more general level of regional governance and individually, on the example of specific territories. Thus, they identify and explain the need to develop balance approach models fitted to the special needs of certain territories. By combining regional modeling for an exclave with traditional balance and simulation-based methods and event-based approach, they come up with a more detailed model for the economy of a region. Having taken one Russian exclave as an example, the authors have developed a simulation event-based long-term sustainability model. In the article, they provide the general characteristics of the model, describe its components, and simulation algorithm. The approach introduced in this article combines the traditional balance models and the peculiarities of an exclave region to develop a holistic regional economy model (with the Kaliningrad region serving as an example. It is important to underline that the resulting model helps to evaluate the degree of influence of preferential economic regimes (such as Free Customs Zone, for example on the economy of a region.

  1. Brookhaven Regional Energy Facility Siting Model (REFS): model development and application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meier, P.; Hobbs, B.; Ketcham, G.; McCoy, M.; Stern, R.

    1979-06-01

    A siting methodology developed specifically to bridge the gap between regional-energy-system scenarios and environmental transport models is documented. Development of the model is described in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 described the basic structure of such a model. Additional chapters on model development cover: generation, transmission, demand disaggregation, the interface to other models, computational aspects, the coal sector, water resource considerations, and air quality considerations. These subjects comprise Part I. Part II, Model Applications, covers: analysis of water resource constraints, water resource issues in the New York Power Pool, water resource issues in the New England Power Pool, water resource issues in the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland Power Pool, and a summary of water resource constraint analysis. (MCW)

  2. The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Sanchez-Gomez, E. [Cerfacs/CNRS, SUC URA1875, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Goodess, C.M. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lenderink, G. [KNMI, Postbus 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark)

    2012-03-15

    Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM x GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

  3. Consistency and Reconciliation Model In Regional Development Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dina Suryawati

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to identify the problems and determine the conceptual model of regional development planning. Regional development planning is a systemic, complex and unstructured process. Therefore, this study used soft systems methodology to outline unstructured issues with a structured approach. The conceptual models that were successfully constructed in this study are a model of consistency and a model of reconciliation. Regional development planning is a process that is well-integrated with central planning and inter-regional planning documents. Integration and consistency of regional planning documents are very important in order to achieve the development goals that have been set. On the other hand, the process of development planning in the region involves technocratic system, that is, both top-down and bottom-up system of participation. Both must be balanced, do not overlap and do not dominate each other. regional, development, planning, consistency, reconciliation

  4. Advance in Application of Regional Climate Models in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Wei; YAN Minhua; CHEN Panqin; XU Helan

    2008-01-01

    Regional climate models have become the powerful tools for simulating regional climate and its changeprocess and have been widely used in China. Using regional climate models, some research results have been obtainedon the following aspects: 1) the numerical simulation of East Asian monsoon climate, including exceptional monsoonprecipitation, summer precipitation distribution, East Asian circulation, multi-year climate average condition, summerrain belt and so on; 2) the simulation of arid climate of the western China, including thermal effect of the Qing-hai-Tibet Plateau, the plateau precipitation in the Qilian Mountains; and the impacts of greenhouse effects (CO2 dou-bling) upon climate in the western China; and 3) the simulation of the climate effect of underlying surface changes, in-cluding the effect of soil on climate formation, the influence of terrain on precipitation, the effect of regional soil deg-radation on regional climate, the effect of various underlying surfaces on regional climate, the effect of land-sea con-trast on the climate formulation, the influence of snow cover over the plateau regions on the regional climate, the effectof vegetation changes on the regional climate, etc. In the process of application of regional climate models, the prefer-ences of the models are improved so that better simulation results are gotten. At last, some suggestions are made aboutthe application of regional climate models in regional climate research in the future.

  5. Southeast Regional Clean Energy Policy Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLaren, Joyce [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2011-04-01

    More than half of the electricity produced in the southeastern states is fuelled by coal. Although the region produces some coal, most of the states depend heavily on coal imports. Many of the region's aging coal power facilities are planned for retirement within the next 20 years. However, estimates indicate that a 20% increase in capacity is needed over that time to meet the rapidly growing demand. The most common incentives for energy efficiency in the Southeast are loans and rebates; however, total public spending on energy efficiency is limited. The most common state-level policies to support renewable energy development are personal and corporate tax incentives and loans. The region produced 1.8% of the electricity from renewable resources other than conventional hydroelectricity in 2009, half of the national average. There is significant potential for development of a biomass market in the region, as well as use of local wind, solar, methane-to-energy, small hydro, and combined heat and power resources. Options are offered for expanding and strengthening state-level policies such as decoupling, integrated resource planning, building codes, net metering, and interconnection standards to support further clean energy development. Benefits would include energy security, job creation, insurance against price fluctuations, increased value of marginal lands, and local and global environmental paybacks.

  6. Southeast Regional Clean Energy Policy Analysis (Revised)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLaren, J.

    2011-04-01

    More than half of the electricity produced in the southeastern states is fuelled by coal. Although the region produces some coal, most of the states depend heavily on coal imports. Many of the region's aging coal power facilities are planned for retirement within the next 20 years. However, estimates indicate that a 20% increase in capacity is needed over that time to meet the rapidly growing demand. The most common incentives for energy efficiency in the Southeast are loans and rebates; however, total public spending on energy efficiency is limited. The most common state-level policies to support renewable energy development are personal and corporate tax incentives and loans. The region produced 1.8% of the electricity from renewable resources other than conventional hydroelectricity in 2009, half of the national average. There is significant potential for development of a biomass market in the region, as well as use of local wind, solar, methane-to-energy, small hydro, and combined heat and power resources. Options are offered for expanding and strengthening state-level policies such as decoupling, integrated resource planning, building codes, net metering, and interconnection standards to support further clean energy development. Benefits would include energy security, job creation, insurance against price fluctuations, increased value of marginal lands, and local and global environmental paybacks.

  7. Simulation and performance Analysis of a Novel Model for Short Range Underwater Acoustic communication Channel Using Ray Tracing Method in Turbulent Shallow Water Regions of the Persian Gulf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Javad Dargahi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available High data rate acoustic transmission is required for diverse underwater operations such as the retrieval of large amounts of data from bottom packages and real time transmission of signals from underwater sensors. The major obstacle to underwater acoustic communication is the interference of multipath signals due to surface and bottom reflections. High speed acoustic transmission over a shallow water channel characterized by small grazing angles presents formidable difficulties. The reflection losses associated with such small angles are low, causing large amplitudes in multi-path signals. In this paper, based on the results obtained from practical measurements in the Persian Gulf and available data about sound speed variations in different depths, we propose a simple but effective model for shallow water short-range multipath acoustic channel. Based on the Ray theory, mathematical modeling of multipath effects is carried out. Also in channel modeling, the attenuation due to the wave scatterings at the surface and its bottom reflections for deferent grazing angles and bottom types is considered. In addition, we consider the attenuations due to the absorption of different materials and ambient noises such as see-state noise, shipping noise, thermal noise and turbulences. We use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (COHERENS in a fully prognostic mode to study the circulation and water mass properties of the Persian Gulf - a large inverse estuary. Maximum sound speed occurs during the summer in the Persian Gulf which decreases gradually moving from the Strait of Hormuz to the north western part of the Gulf. A gradual decrease in sound speed profiles with depth was commonly observed in almost all parts of the Gulf. However, an exception occurred in the Strait of Hormuz during the winter. The results of the model are in very good agreement with our observations.

  8. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  9. Simulating river discharge in a snowy region of Japan using output from a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, X.; Kawase, H.; Adachi, S.; Fujita, M.; Takahashi, H. G.; Hara, M.; Ishizaki, N.; Yoshikane, T.; Hatsushika, H.; Wakazuki, Y.; Kimura, F.

    2013-07-01

    Snowfall amounts have fallen sharply along the eastern coast of the Sea of Japan since the mid-1980s. Toyama Prefecture, located approximately in the center of the Japan Sea region, includes high mountains of the northern Japanese Alps on three of its sides. The scarcity of meteorological observation points in mountainous areas limits the accuracy of hydrological analysis. With the development of computing technology, a dynamical downscaling method is widely applied into hydrological analysis. In this study, we numerically modeled river discharge using runoff data derived by a regional climate model (4.5-km spatial resolution) as input data to river networks (30-arcseconds resolution) for the Toyama Prefecture. The five main rivers in Toyama (the Oyabe, Sho, Jinzu, Joganji, and Kurobe rivers) were selected in this study. The river basins range in area from 368 to 2720 km2. A numerical experiment using climate comparable to that at present was conducted for the 1980s and 1990s. The results showed that seasonal river discharge could be represented and that discharge was generally overestimated compared with measurements, except for Oyabe River discharge, which was always underestimated. The average correlation coefficient for 10-year average monthly mean discharge was 0.8, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.56 to 0.88 for all five rivers, whereas the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient indicated that the simulation accuracy was insufficient. From the water budget analysis, it was possible to speculate that the lack of accuracy of river discharge may be caused by insufficient accuracy of precipitation simulation.

  10. Abilities and limitations in the use of regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koeltzov, Morten Andreas Oedegaard

    2012-11-01

    In order to say something about the effect of climate change at the regional level, one takes in use regional climate models. In these models the thesis introduce regional features, which are not included in the global climate models (which are basically in climate research). Regional models can provide good and useful climate projections that add more value than the global climate models, but also introduces an uncertainty in the calculations. How should this uncertainty affect the use of regional climate models?The most common methodology for calculating potential future climate developments are based on different scenarios of possible emissions of greenhouse gases. These scenarios operates as global climate models using physical laws and calculate possible future developments. This is considered mathematical complexed and processes with limited supercomputing capacity calculates the global models for the larger scale of the climate system. To study the effects of climate change are regional details required and the regional models used therefore in a limited area of the climate system. These regional models are driven by data from the global models and refines and improves these data. Impact studies can then use the data from the regional models or data which are further processed to provide more local details using geo-statistical methods. In the preparation of the climate projections is there a minimum of 4 sources of uncertainty. This uncertainty is related to the provision of emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, uncertainties related to the use of global climate models, uncertainty related to the use of regional climate models and the uncertainty of internal variability in the climate system. This thesis discusses the use of regional climate models, and illustrates how the regional climate model adds value to climate projections, and at the same time introduce uncertainty in the calculations. It discusses in particular the importance of the choice of

  11. Modelling electroweak physics for the forward region

    CERN Document Server

    Sirendi, Marek

    2016-01-01

    This note presents a study of matching and merging schemes and weak showering at the LHC as applied to the production of electroweak bosons in association with jets. These advanced theoretical tools are seen to provide a good description of event shapes in the central region when compared to measurements performed by the ATLAS and CMS collaborations at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. Matching and merging schemes also provide a superior description of forward $Z+$jets production. The study constitutes a test of matching and merging schemes in a novel region of phase space and can be considered as a validation of the universality of these techniques. Finally, it was determined that current measurements of electroweak physics at LHCb do not yet fully probe the effect of weak showers.

  12. Prehospital care and new models of regionalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cone, David C; Brooke Lerner, E; Band, Roger A; Renjilian, Chris; Bobrow, Bentley J; Crawford Mechem, C; Carter, Alix J E; Kupas, Douglas F; Spaite, Daniel W

    2010-12-01

    This article summarizes the discussions of the emergency medical services (EMS) breakout session at the June 2010 Academic Emergency Medicine consensus conference "Beyond Regionalization: Integrated Networks of Emergency Care." The group focused on prehospital issues such as the identification of patients by EMS personnel, protocol-driven destination selection, bypassing closer nondesignated centers to transport patients directly to more distant designated specialty centers, and the modes of transport to be used as they relate to the regionalization of emergency care. It is our hope that the proposed research agenda will be advanced in a way that begins to rigorously approach the unanswered research questions and that these answers, in turn, will lead to an evidence-based, cohesive, comprehensive, and more uniform set of guidelines that govern the delivery and practice of prehospital emergency care.

  13. The consistency evaluation of the climate version of the Eta regional forecast model developed for regional climate downscaling

    CERN Document Server

    Pisnichenko, I A

    2007-01-01

    The regional climate model prepared from Eta WS (workstation) forecast model has been integrated over South America with the horizontal resolution of 40 km for the period of 1961-1977. The model was forced at its lateral boundaries by the outputs of HadAMP. The data of HadAMP represent the simulation of modern climate with the resolution about150 km. In order to prepare climate regional model from the Eta forecast model was added new blocks and multiple modifications and corrections was made in the original model. The running of climate Eta model was made on the supercomputer SX-6. The detailed analysis of the results of dynamical downscaling experiment includes an investigation of a consistency between the regional and AGCM models as well as of ability of the regional model to resolve important features of climate fields on the finer scale than that resolved by AGCM. In this work we show the results of our investigation of the consistency of the output fields of the Eta model and HadAMP. We have analysed geo...

  14. Regional CMS Modeling: Southwest Florida Gulf Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    counties and over 70 miles of southwest Florida shoreline along the Gulf of Mexico . The study region is entirely within the USACE Jacksonville...2 Figure 1. Sediment budget extent and active USACE Jacksonville District (SAJ) projects in Pinellas, Manatee, and Sarasota Counties, FL. METHOD ...The CMS is a product of the Coastal Inlets Research Program (http://cirp.usace. army.mil), a USACE Navigation Research Development and Technology

  15. MODELING REGIONAL SYSTEMS OF BREEDING PIGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svinarev I. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article contains the experience of the development of the methodology and the computer program for calculation of regional and local systems of pigs hybridization at the example of the Rostov region (Russia. Crossing the GP lines for F1 should be organized in multiplier farm, which may be separate farms and to be part of large commercial farms. For the production of F1 in a multiplier farm, we must breed a purebred specialized paternal and a maternal line, selected on the effect of combining ability. For the successful functioning of the system of hybridization, it is necessary to build a genetic pyramid, including breeding and genetic centers (nucleus farm, multiplier farm, reproducing the baseline. The article gives a detailed calculation of sow population of levels of P, GP, GGP for maternal and paternal breeds of pigs. The program uses user-defined parameters of pigs productivity, of the simulated population, and the parameters characterizing the intensity of selection of young animals. To ensure annual production of 1,822 million pigs in the Rostov region it is necessary to provide the availability of brood stock in the amount of 89 thousand heads, 6 800 heads in the structure of grandparent flocks (GP, 730 heads in the structure of the Grand-Grand-parent stock (GGP, excluding sows second maternal and paternal breeds

  16. ANALYSIS OF LIVESTOCK AT REGIONAL LEVEL IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silviu BECIU

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In Romania the livestock sector generates significant outputs for the agricultural and the national economy. Geographical distribution of the livestock production systems varies between regions of development, due local traditions, production conditions, and consumer choices options. This paper analysis the livestock sector at regional level for all animal species considered for production. For the research method, based on regional analysis has been considered statistical approach, based of national database for year 2011. The results indicates different concentration of livestock at regional level, even if animal density per 100 ha was calculate in order to consider the different dimension of agriculture land of each region.

  17. Runoff Modeling for a Watershed in Pothowar Region of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qazi Tallat Mahmood Siddiqui

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards in the world. Pakistan has big rivers and flood planning and management is mainly concentrated on riverine floods occurring during monsoon. However, flash floods in hilly and Pothowar (semi-hilly area are also common with demonstrated damage potential. This study was taken up to thoroughly investigate flood mechanism and inundation behavior in a watershed in Pothowar region by use of computer modeling with the Lai Stream as a case study. The Lai Stream Basin with an area of 235 km2 is located in northern part of Pakistan. Lai is the main stream passing through Rawalpindi city with a flood damaging history of almost once in every three years. 2001-Flood has been the largest among recorded events claiming 74 human lives, affecting 400,000 people and inflicting a capital loss of USD 0.25 billion. Thorough data analysis was performed to select most suitable data for computer modeling. The whole basin was divided in to fifteen (15 sub-basins and their respective yields were generated and subsequently incorporated in to river network of Lai Stream. Calibration was achieved successfully along the river profile with 2001 flood as target followed by the estimation of standard flood discharge for Lai stream. Thereupon useful recommendations have been made to utilize the model for mitigating flash flood events in urban/inhabited Pothowar (semi-hilly region of Pakistan in particular and world over in general.

  18. Aerosol indirect effect on the grid-scale clouds in the two-way coupled WRF–CMAQ: model description, development, evaluation and regional analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, S.; Mathur, R.; Pleim, J.; Wong, D.; Gilliam, R.; Alapaty, K.; Zhao, C.; Liu, X.

    2014-01-01

    This study implemented first, second and glaciation aerosol indirect effects (AIE) on resolved clouds in the two-way coupled Weather Research and Forecasting Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF–CMAQ) modeling system by including parameterizations for both cloud drop and ice number concentrations on the basis of CMAQ-predicted aerosol distributions and WRF meteorological conditions. The performance of the newly developed WRF–CMAQ model, with alternate Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) and Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs (RRTMG) radiation schemes, was evaluated with observations from the Clouds and the See http://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/. Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite and surface monitoring networks (AQS, IMPROVE, CASTNET, STN, and PRISM) over the continental US (CONUS) (12 km resolution) and eastern Texas (4 km resolution) during August and September of 2006. The results at the Air Quality System (AQS) surface sites show that in August, the normalized mean bias (NMB) values for PM2.5 over the eastern US (EUS) and the western US (WUS) are 5.3% (-0.1%) and 0.4% (-5.2%) for WRF–CMAQ/CAM (WRF–CMAQ/RRTMG), respectively. The evaluation of PM2.5 chemical composition reveals that in August, WRF–CMAQ/CAM (WRF–CMAQ/RRTMG) consistently underestimated the observed SO42- by -23.0% (-27.7%), -12.5% (-18.9%) and -7.9% (-14.8%) over the EUS at the Clean Air Status Trends Network (CASTNET), Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) and Speciated Trends Network (STN) sites, respectively. Both configurations (WRF–CMAQ/CAM, WRF–CMAQ/RRTMG) overestimated the observed mean organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC) and and total carbon (TC) concentrations over the EUS in August at the IMPROVE sites. Both configurations generally underestimated the cloud field (shortwave cloud forcing, SWCF) over the CONUS in August due

  19. "Special Issue": Regional Dimensions of the Triple Helix Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todeva, Emanuela; Danson, Mike

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces the rationale for the special issue and its contributions, which bridge the literature on regional development and the Triple Helix model. The concept of the Triple Helix at the sub-national, and specifically regional, level is established and examined, with special regard to regional economic development founded on…

  20. Regional Dimensions of the Triple Helix Model: Setting the Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todeva, Emanuela; Danson, Mike

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces the rationale for the special issue and its contributions, which bridge the literature on regional development and the Triple Helix model. The concept of the Triple Helix at the sub-national, and specifically regional, level is established and examined, with special regard to regional economic development founded on…

  1. Numerical modeling of regional stress distributions for geothermal exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillon, Theophile; Peter-Borie, Mariane; Gentier, Sylvie; Blaisonneau, Arnold

    2017-04-01

    zones family sets and their priority rule. In the second step, the physical model must be established, including constitutive equations for the rock mass and the fault zones, initial state and boundary conditions. At such large scales, physical laws and parameters are difficult to assess and must be constrained by sensitivity analysis. In the last step of the study, the results can be interpreted to highlight areas where the mechanical conditions favor the presence of a geothermal resource. The DEM enables accounting for the strong stress redistributions inherent to highly-segmented geometries, and to the dilational opening of fault zones under shearing. A 130x150 square-kilometers region within the Upper Rhine Graben is used as a case-study to illustrate the building and interpretation of a regional stress model.

  2. Target-oriented obstacle analysis by PESTEL modeling of energy efficiency retrofit for existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shilei, Lv [School of Environment Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China); Yong, Wu [Department of Science and Technology, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People' s Republic of China, Beijing 100835 (China)

    2009-06-15

    According to the 'Comprehensive Work Program of Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction' of the Chinese government, during the period of the '11th Five-Year Plan', 1.5 x 10{sup 8} m{sup 2} of existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region are to be retrofitted for energy efficiency. However, at present, this 'Energy Efficiency Retrofit for Existing Residential Buildings' (EERFERB) faces many obstacles. Under the current working and market system, both the central and local governments and the energy supply companies can not push on this work smoothly. Using both the results of the annual national special inspection of building energy efficiency and some case analyses, this paper examines the necessity for energy efficiency retrofit, along with the relationships among the various Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal (PESTEL) factors affecting it. Furthermore, organizational, financial and technical support systems are explored to promote the development of retrofit. Finally, some primary principles to be followed toward the implementation of EERFERB are suggested. (author)

  3. Future meteorological drought: projections of regional climate models for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagge, James; Tallaksen, Lena; Rizzi, Jonathan

    2015-04-01

    In response to the major European drought events of the last decade, projecting future drought frequency and severity in a non-stationary climate is a major concern for Europe. Prior drought studies have identified regional hotspots in the Mediterranean and Eastern European regions, but have otherwise produced conflicting results with regard to future drought severity. Some of this disagreement is likely related to the relatively coarse resolution of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and regional averaging, which tends to smooth extremes. This study makes use of the most current Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced with CMIP5 climate projections to quantify the projected change in meteorological drought for Europe during the next century at a fine, gridded scale. Meteorological drought is quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which normalize accumulated precipitation and climatic water balance anomaly, respectively, for a specific location and time of year. By comparing projections for these two indices, the importance of precipitation deficits can be contrasted with the importance of evapotranspiration increases related to temperature changes. Climate projections are based on output from CORDEX (the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), which provides high resolution regional downscaled climate scenarios that have been extensively tested for numerous regions around the globe, including Europe. SPI and SPEI are then calculated on a gridded scale at a spatial resolution of either 0.44 degrees (~50 km) or 0.11 degrees (~12.5km) for the three projected emission pathways (rcp26, rcp45, rcp85). Analysis is divided into two major sections: first validating the models with respect to observed historical trends in meteorological drought from 1970-2005 and then comparing drought severity and frequency during three future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) to the

  4. Metropolitan and state economic regions (MASTER) model - overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adams, R.C.; Moe, R.J.; Scott, M.J.

    1983-05-01

    The Metropolitan and State Economic Regions (MASTER) model is a unique multi-regional economic model designed to forecast regional economic activity and assess the regional economic impacts caused by national and regional economic changes (e.g., interest rate fluctuations, energy price changes, construction and operation of a nuclear waste storage facility, shutdown of major industrial operations). MASTER can be applied to any or all of the 268 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) and 48 non-SMSA rest-of-state-areas (ROSAs) in the continental US. The model can also be applied to any or all of the continental US counties and states. This report is divided into four sections: capabilities and applications of the MASTER model, development of the model, model simulation, and validation testing.

  5. INTERCOMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE VEGETATION DATABASES FOR REGIONAL AIR QUALITY MODELING

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vegetation cover data are used to characterize several regional air quality modeling processes, including the calculation of heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes with the Mesoscale Meteorological Model (MM5) and the estimate of biogenic volatile organic compound and nitric oxide...

  6. Dynamical model of electroweak pion production in the resonance region

    CERN Document Server

    Sato, T; Kubodera, K; Lee, T S H

    2006-01-01

    In this report, we will briefly review the dynamical model of pion electroweak production reactions in the $\\Delta$ resonance region and report on our study of neutrino-nucleus reactions based on this model.

  7. Regional environmental analysis and management: New techniques for current problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honea, R. B.; Paludan, C. T. N.

    1974-01-01

    Advances in data acquisition and processing procedures for regional environmental analysis are discussed. Automated and semi-automated techniques employing Earth Resources Technology Satellite data and conventional data sources are presented. Experiences are summarized. The ERTS computer compatible tapes provide a very complete and flexible record of earth resources data and represent a viable medium to enhance regional environmental analysis research.

  8. Cooperative credit banks and regional growth: creation of a local development model and analysis of the «G. Toniolo» Cooperative Credit Bank in San Cataldo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimo Cermelli

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The economic crisis has called into question not only the banking systems, but also the development model. Cooperative credit banks have returned to occupy a central role, demonstrating with his broad background that another way of providing financial services can exist. In Italy, cooperative credit banks are principal players in the banking economic system. One of those banks is the «G. Toniolo», which has become over the years a reference in the local banking system.Received: 07.06.2015Accepted: 30.07.2015

  9. T=S Model to Simulate Regional Economic Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WangQing; ChenGuo-jie; ZhangYu; ChenYong

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes a mechanism theory on regional development by using a modified Logistic model. It reveals regional evolution is an integration of fluctuation in temporal dimension and disparity in spatial dimension. T=S model is established by using Logistic model to simulate the growth of per capita GDP in China from 1990 to 1999. The result shows that T=S model accurately simulates the tracks of economic growth.

  10. T=S Model to Simulate Regional Economic Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Qing; Chen Guo-jie; Zhang Yu; Chen Yong

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes a mechanism theory on regional development by using a modified Logistic model. It reveals regional evolution is an integration of fluctuation in temporal dimcnsion and disparity in spatial dimension. T = S model is established by using Logistic model to simulate the growth of per capita GDP in China from 1990 to 1999. The result shows that T= S model accurately simulates the tracks of economic growth.

  11. Regional subsidence modelling in Murcia city (SE Spain using 1-D vertical finite element analysis and 2-D interpolation of ground surface displacements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Tessitore

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Subsidence is a hazard that may have natural or anthropogenic origin causing important economic losses. The area of Murcia city (SE Spain has been affected by subsidence due to groundwater overexploitation since the year 1992. The main observed historical piezometric level declines occurred in the periods 1982–1984, 1992–1995 and 2004–2008 and showed a close correlation with the temporal evolution of ground displacements. Since 2008, the pressure recovery in the aquifer has led to an uplift of the ground surface that has been detected by the extensometers. In the present work an elastic hydro-mechanical finite element code has been used to compute the subsidence time series for 24 geotechnical boreholes, prescribing the measured groundwater table evolution. The achieved results have been compared with the displacements estimated through an advanced DInSAR technique and measured by the extensometers. These spatio-temporal comparisons have showed that, in spite of the limited geomechanical data available, the model has turned out to satisfactorily reproduce the subsidence phenomenon affecting Murcia City. The model will allow the prediction of future induced deformations and the consequences of any piezometric level variation in the study area.

  12. Photon Dominated Region Modeling of Barnard 68

    CERN Document Server

    Pineda, Jorge L

    2007-01-01

    We use the Barnard 68 dark globule as a test case for a spherically symmetric PDR model exposed to low-UV radiation fields. With a roughly spherical morphology and an accurately determined density profile, Barnard 68 is ideal for this purpose. The processes governing the energy balance in the cloud surface are studied in detail. We compare the spherically symmetric PDR model by Stoerzer, Stutzki & Sternberg (1996) to observations of the three lowest rotational transitions of 12CO, 13CO J = 2-1 and J = 3-2 as well as the [CI] 3P_1-3P_0 fine structure transition. We study the role of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the chemical network of the PDR model and consider the impact of depletion as well as of a variation of the external FUV field. We find it difficult to simultaneously model the observed 12CO and 13CO emission. The 12CO and [CI] emission can be explained by a PDR model with a external FUV field of 1-0.75 chi_0, but this model fails to reproduce the observed 13CO by a factor of ~2. Addin...

  13. Regional Evacuation Modeling: A State of the Art Reviewing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.

    1991-01-01

    Regional evacuation modeling is treated as a five step process: involving vehicle trip generation, trip departure time, trip destination, and trip route selection modeling, supplemented by plan set-up and analysis procedures. Progress under each of these headings is reviewed and gaps in the process identified. The potential for emergency planners to make use of real time traffic data, resulting from the recent technical and economic revolutions in telecommunications and infrared traffic sensing, is identified as the single greatest opportunity for the near future; and some beginnings in the development of real time dynamic traffic modeling specifically geared to evacuation planning are highlighted. Significant data problems associated with the time of day location of large urban populations represent a second area requiring extensive research. A third area requiring much additional effort is the translation of the considerable knowledge we have on evacuee behavior in times of crisis into reliable quantitative measures of the timing of evacuee mobilization, notably by distance from the source of the hazard. Specific evacuation models are referenced and categorized by method. Incorporation of evacuation model findings into the definition of emergency planning zone boundaries is also discussed.

  14. ANALYSIS OF RURAL TOURISM POTENTIAL OF REGION CRISANA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BARBU IONEL

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we will present a SWOT analysis on the potential of rural tourism in the region Crisana. Crisana region is a historical region delimited at north by the river Somes and Maramures region, at west by the river Tisa, at south by the Mures river and Banat region, and at east by the peaks of the Apuseni Mountains and Transylvania region. Crisana Region stretches on both Romania and Hungary, and we will refer only to the Romanian side of it. Crisana region has an area of 17,717 km2 and if we refer to the current counties, this region includes much of Arad county, without the area between the river Mures and Timis county, north of Hunedoara county Bihor county and part of western Salaj county

  15. Application of an Online-Coupled Regional Climate Model, WRF-CAM5, over East Asia for Examination of Ice Nucleation Schemes: Part I. Comprehensive Model Evaluation and Trend Analysis for 2006 and 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Ying; Zhang, Yang; Fan, Jiwen; Leung, Lai-Yung; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

    2015-08-18

    or even better than that reported for East Asia with only a few exceptions. The model generally reproduces the observed seasonal variations and the difference between 2006 and 2011 for most variables or chemical species. Overall, these results demonstrate promising skills of WRF-CAM5 for long-term simulations at a regional scale and suggest several areas of potential improvements.

  16. Application of an Online-Coupled Regional Climate Model, WRF-CAM5, over East Asia for Examination of Ice Nucleation Schemes: Part I. Comprehensive Model Evaluation and Trend Analysis for 2006 and 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Chen

    2015-08-01

    than that reported for East Asia with only a few exceptions. The model generally reproduces the observed seasonal variations and the difference between 2006 and 2011 for most variables or chemical species. Overall, these results demonstrate promising skills of WRF-CAM5 for long-term simulations at a regional scale and suggest several areas of potential improvements.

  17. Web Portal Analysis of Asian Region Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subhash Chander

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The number of online services provided by Government and private sectors is increasing these days. On the same pattern various countries have their own portals to provide basic services to the citizens and other people of the world. Analysis of portals in Asia is the main theme of the paper. There are various indicators or attributes necessary for the implementation of e-services .Some of the indicators may be frequency of use of services, number of users, visitors, site hits, searchable option, accessibility, language option, performance, functionality, broken links, traffic analysis, and feedback. Out of these metrics taken into consideration here are Traffic analysis, feedback, accessibility, security and language option. The countries taken into consideration are India, China and Pakistan. Web portals of these countries will be analyzed in detail.

  18. A Preliminary Tsunami Vulnerability Analysis for Yenikapi Region in Istanbul

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceren Cankaya, Zeynep; Suzen, Lutfi; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kolat, Cagil; Aytore, Betul; Zaytsev, Andrey

    2015-04-01

    One of the main requirements during post disaster recovery operations is to maintain proper transportation and fluent communication at the disaster areas. Ports and harbors are the main transportation hubs which must work with proper performance at all times especially after the disasters. Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis have major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Istanbul is a mega city with its various coastal utilities located at the north coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapi region of Istanbul, there are critical coastal utilities and vulnerable coastal structures and critical activities occur daily. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, water front commercial and/or recreational structures are some of the examples of coastal utilization which are vulnerable against marine disasters. Therefore their vulnerability under tsunami or any other marine hazard to Yenikapi region of Istanbul is an important issue. In this study, a methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack is proposed with the applications to Yenikapi region. In the study, high resolution (1m) GIS database of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed by using GIS implementation. The bathymetry and topography database and the vector dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the study area are obtained for tsunami numerical modeling for the study area. GIS based tsunami vulnerability assessment is conducted by applying the Multi-criteria Decision Making Analysis (MCDA). The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability parameters in the region due to two different classifications i) vulnerability of buildings/structures and ii) vulnerability of (human) evacuation

  19. Statistical analysis of acoustic wave parameters near active regions

    CERN Document Server

    Soares, M Cristina Rabello; Scherrer, Philip H

    2016-01-01

    In order to quantify the influence of magnetic fields on acoustic mode parameters and flows in and around active regions, we analyse the differences in the parameters in magnetically quiet regions nearby an active region (which we call `nearby regions'), compared with those of quiet regions at the same disc locations for which there are no neighboring active regions. We also compare the mode parameters in active regions with those in comparably located quiet regions. Our analysis is based on ring diagram analysis of all active regions observed by HMI during almost five years. We find that the frequency at which the mode amplitude changes from attenuation to amplification in the quiet nearby regions is around 4.2 mHz, in contrast to the active regions, for which it is about 5.1 mHz. This amplitude enhancement (the `acoustic halo effect') is as large as that observed in the active regions, and has a very weak dependence on the wave propagation direction. The mode energy difference in nearby regions also changes...

  20. Analysis of regional scale risk to whirling disease in populations of Colorado and Rio Grande cutthroat trout using Bayesian belief network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolb Ayre, Kimberley; Caldwell, Colleen A.; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction and spread of the parasite Myxobolus cerebralis, the causative agent of whirling disease, has contributed to the collapse of wild trout populations throughout the intermountain west. Of concern is the risk the disease may have on conservation and recovery of native cutthroat trout. We employed a Bayesian belief network to assess probability of whirling disease in Colorado River and Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus and Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis, respectively) within their current ranges in the southwest United States. Available habitat (as defined by gradient and elevation) for intermediate oligochaete worm host, Tubifex tubifex, exerted the greatest influence on the likelihood of infection, yet prevalence of stream barriers also affected the risk outcome. Management areas that had the highest likelihood of infected Colorado River cutthroat trout were in the eastern portion of their range, although the probability of infection was highest for populations in the southern, San Juan subbasin. Rio Grande cutthroat trout had a relatively low likelihood of infection, with populations in the southernmost Pecos management area predicted to be at greatest risk. The Bayesian risk assessment model predicted the likelihood of whirling disease infection from its principal transmission vector, fish movement, and suggested that barriers may be effective in reducing risk of exposure to native trout populations. Data gaps, especially with regard to location of spawning, highlighted the importance in developing monitoring plans that support future risk assessments and adaptive management for subspecies of cutthroat trout.

  1. Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical Documentation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vries B de; Vuuren D van; Elzen M den; Janssen M; MNV

    2002-01-01

    The Targets IMage Energy Regional simulation model, TIMER, is described in detail. This model was developed and used in close connection with the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) 2.2. The system-dynamics TIMER model simulates the global energy system at an intermediate level

  2. SDI CFD MODELING ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, S.

    2011-05-05

    The Savannah River Remediation (SRR) Organization requested that Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) develop a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) method to mix and blend the miscible contents of the blend tanks to ensure the contents are properly blended before they are transferred from the blend tank; such as, Tank 50H, to the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) feed tank. The work described here consists of two modeling areas. They are the mixing modeling analysis during miscible liquid blending operation, and the flow pattern analysis during transfer operation of the blended liquid. The transient CFD governing equations consisting of three momentum equations, one mass balance, two turbulence transport equations for kinetic energy and dissipation rate, and one species transport were solved by an iterative technique until the species concentrations of tank fluid were in equilibrium. The steady-state flow solutions for the entire tank fluid were used for flow pattern analysis, for velocity scaling analysis, and the initial conditions for transient blending calculations. A series of the modeling calculations were performed to estimate the blending times for various jet flow conditions, and to investigate the impact of the cooling coils on the blending time of the tank contents. The modeling results were benchmarked against the pilot scale test results. All of the flow and mixing models were performed with the nozzles installed at the mid-elevation, and parallel to the tank wall. From the CFD modeling calculations, the main results are summarized as follows: (1) The benchmark analyses for the CFD flow velocity and blending models demonstrate their consistency with Engineering Development Laboratory (EDL) and literature test results in terms of local velocity measurements and experimental observations. Thus, an application of the established criterion to SRS full scale tank will provide a better, physically-based estimate of the required mixing time, and

  3. Regional geomagnetic field modelling: the contribution of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Meloni

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available Models of the geomagnetic field are mathematical expressions able to represent the Earth's magnetic field space and time variations. Time variations on the long term basis are represented by the so-called secular variation. This paper describes and reviews recent activities of the Italian group at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica in regional magnetic field modelling. The models are introduced starting from the classical technique of Spherical Harmonic Analysis (SHA undertaken for the first time by Gauss, the polynomial analysis and the regional harmonic analysis, specifically introduced as a regional analogue of SHA. In this last group the recent techniques of Spherical Cap Harmonic Analysis (SCHA, Translated Origin Spherical Cap Analysis (TOSCA and Adjusted Spherical Cap Harmonic Analysis (ASHA are also described and discussed.

  4. Zooming in on cirrus with the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanof, C.; Stefanof, A.; Beaulne, A.; Munoz Alpizar, R.; Szyrmer, W.; Blanchet, J.

    2004-05-01

    The Canadian Regional Climate Model plus a microphysical scheme: two-moments microphysics with three hydrometeor categories (cloud liquid water, pristine ice crystals and larger precipitation crystals) is used to test the simulation in forecast mode using ECMWF data at 0.4 X 0.4 degree. We are zooming in on cirrus at higher resolutions (9, 1.8, 0.36 km). We are currently using the data set measured in APEX-E3, measurements of radar, lidar, passive instruments and interpreted microphysics for some flights (G-II, C404, B200). The radar and lidar data are available for high level cirrus. The south west of Japon is the flight region. The dates are March 20, March 27 and April 2, 2003. We first focus on the March 27 frontal system. We did a rigorous synoptical analysis for the cases. The cirrus at 360 m resolution are simulated. The cloud structure and some similarities between model simulation and observations will be presented.

  5. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

  6. Regional Spectral Model simulations of the summertime regional climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ching-Teng Lee; Ming-Chin Wu; Shyh-Chin Chen

    2005-01-01

    The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) version 97 was used to investigate the regional summertime climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas for June-July-August of 1990 through 2000. The simulated sea-level-pressure and wind fields of RSM1 with 50-km grid space are similar to the reanalysis, but the strength of the...

  7. The Alpine snow-albedo feedback in regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Kevin J.-P. M.; Kotlarski, Sven; Scherrer, Simon C.; Schär, Christoph

    2017-02-01

    The effect of the snow-albedo feedback (SAF) on 2m temperatures and their future changes in the European Alps is investigated in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) with a focus on the spring season. A total of 14 re-analysis-driven RCM experiments covering the period 1961-2000 and 10 GCM-driven transient climate change projections for 1950-2099 are analysed. A positive springtime SAF is found in all RCMs, but the range of the diagnosed SAF is large. Results are compared against an observation-based SAF estimate. For some RCMs, values very close to this estimate are found; other models show a considerable overestimation of the SAF. Net shortwave radiation has the largest influence of all components of the energy balance on the diagnosed SAF and can partly explain its spatial variability. Model deficiencies in reproducing 2m temperatures above snow and ice and associated cold temperature biases at high elevations seem to contribute to a SAF overestimation in several RCMs. The diagnosed SAF in the observational period strongly influences the estimated SAF contribution to twenty first century temperature changes in the European Alps. This contribution is subject to a clear elevation dependency that is governed by the elevation-dependent change in the number of snow days. Elevations of maximum SAF contribution range from 1500 to 2000 m in spring and are found above 2000 m in summer. Here, a SAF contribution to the total simulated temperature change between 0 and 0.5 °C until 2099 (multi-model mean in spring: 0.26 °C) or 0 and 14 % (multi-model mean in spring: 8 %) is obtained for models showing a realistic SAF. These numbers represent a well-funded but only approximate estimate of the SAF contribution to future warming, and a remaining contribution of model-specific SAF misrepresentations cannot be ruled out.

  8. SWOT Model Analysis on Regional Market Development Strategy of Large Construction Company%大型建筑企业区域市场发展策略的SWOT模型分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张传成

    2012-01-01

    SWOT model is used to study the regional market development strategies of large construction companies, the strength (S) , weakness ( W), opportunity (O) and threat (T) are analyzed, and a SWOT analysis matrix is built. It comes to the conclusion that (SO) strategy, and gives some specific measures large construction companies should take strength-opportunity of regional market development.%运用SWOT模型对大型建筑企业的区域市场发展策略进行研究,分析了大型建筑企业开拓区域市场的优势(S)、劣势(W)、外部机会(O)和外部威胁(T)等因素,建立了SWOT分析矩阵,得出了应采取"优势—机会"战略(SO)的结论,并提出了开拓区域市场的具体对策。

  9. [Cultural regionalization for Notopterygium incisum based on 3S technology platform. I. Evaluation for growth suitability for N. incisum based on ecological factors analysis by Maxent and ArcGIS model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Hong-bing; Sun, Hui; Jiang, Shun-yuan; Zhou, Yi; Cao, Wen-long; Ji, Ming-chang; Zhy, Wen-tao; Yan, Han-jing

    2015-03-01

    Growth suitability as assessment indicators for medicinal plants cultivation was proposed based on chemical quality determination and ecological factors analysis by Maxent and ArcGIS model. Notopterygium incisum, an endangered Chinese medicinal plant, was analyzed as a case, its potential distribution areas at different suitability grade and regionalization map were formulated based on growth suitability theory. The results showed that the most suitable habitats is Sichuan province, and more than 60% of the most suitable areawas located in the western Sichuan such as Aba and Ganzi prefectures for N. incisum. The results indicated that habitat altitude, average air temperature in September, and vegetation types were the dominant factors contributing to the grade of plant growth, precipitation and slope were the major factors contributing to notopterol accumulation in its underground parts, while isoimperatorin in its underground parts was negatively corelated with precipitation and slope of its habitat. However, slope as a factor influencing chemical components seemed to be a pseudo corelationship. Therefore, there were distinguishing differences between growth suitability and quality suitability for medicinal plants, which was helpful to further research and practice of cultivation regionalization, wild resource monitoring and large-scale cultivation of traditional Chinese medicine plants.

  10. [Cultural regionalization for Coptis chinensis based on 3S technology platform Ⅰ. Study on growth suitability for Coptis chinensis based on ecological factors analysis by Maxent and ArcGIS model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xin; Yang, Yan-Fang; Song, Hong-Ping; Zhang, Xiao-Bo; Huang, Lu-Qi; Wu, He-Zhen

    2016-09-01

    At the urgent request of Coptis chinensis planting,growth suitability as assessment indicators for C. chinensis cultivation was proposed and analyzed in this paper , based on chemical quality determination and ecological fators analysis by Maxent and ArcGIS model. Its potential distribution areas at differernt suitability grade and regionalization map were formulated based on statistical theory and growth suitability theory. The results showed that the most suitable habitats is some parts of Chongqing and Hubei province, such as Shizhu, Lichuan, Wulong, Wuxi, Enshi. There are seven ecological factor is the main ecological factors affect the growth of Coptidis Rhizoma, including altitude, precipitation in February and September and the rise of precipitation and altitude is conducive to the accumulation of total alkaloid content in C. chinensis. Therefore, The results of the study not only illustrates the most suitable for the surroundings of Coptidis Rhizoma, also helpful to further research and practice of cultivation regionalization, wild resource monitoring and large-scale cultivation of traditional Chinese medicine plants. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

  11. FTIR spectra of CH2F2 in the 1000-1300 cm-1 region: Rovibrational analysis and modeling of the Coriolis and anharmonic resonances in the ν3, ν5, ν7, ν9 and 2ν4 polyad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoppa, Paolo; Tasinato, Nicola; Baldacci, Agostino; Pietropolli Charmet, Andrea; Giorgianni, Santi; Tamassia, Filippo; Cané, Elisabetta; Villa, Mattia

    2016-05-01

    The FTIR spectra of CH2F2 have been investigated in a region of atmospheric interest (1000-1300 cm-1) where four fundamentals ν3, ν5, ν7 and ν9 occur. These vibrations perturb each other by different Coriolis interactions and the forbidden ν5 borrows intensity from the neighboring levels. Furthermore, the v4=2 state has been found to interact with the v3=1 and v9=1 states by anharmonic and c-type Coriolis resonances, respectively. The spectral analysis resulted in the assignment of about 7500 rovibrational transitions which have been simultaneously fitted, together with microwave data available in literature (Hirota E. J Mol Spectrosc 1978; 69: 409-420) [15] using the Watson's A-reduction Hamiltonian in the Ir representation and the relevant perturbation operators. The model employed includes eight types of resonances within the pentad ν3/ν5/ν7/ν9/2ν4. A set of spectroscopic constants for the four fundamentals as well as parameters for the v4=2 state and eighteen coupling terms have been determined. The simulations performed in different spectral regions well reproduce the experimental data.

  12. Challenges from variation across regions in cost effectiveness analysis in multi-regional clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunbo Chu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Economic evaluation in the form of cost-effectiveness analysis has become a popular means to inform decisions in healthcare. With multi-regional clinical trials in a global development program becoming a new venue for drug efficacy testing in recent decades, questions in methods for cost-effectiveness analysis in the multi-regional clinical trials setting also emerge. This paper addresses some challenges from variation across regions in cost effectiveness analysis in multi-regional clinical trials. Several discussion points are raised for further attention and a multi-regional clinical trial example is presented to illustrate the implications in industrial application. A general message is delivered to call for a depth discussion by all stakeholders to reach an agreement on a good practice in cost-effectiveness analysis in the multi-regional clinical trials. Meanwhile, we recommend an additional consideration of cost-effectiveness analysis results based on the clinical evidence from a certain homogeneous population as sensitivity or scenario analysis upon data availability.

  13. A regional peaks-over-threshold model in a nonstationary climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roth, M.; Buishand, T.A.; Jongbloed, G.; Klein Tank, A.M.G.; Van Zanten, J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Regional frequency analysis is often used to reduce the uncertainty in the estimation of distribution parameters and quantiles. In this paper a regional peaks-over-threshold model is introduced that can be used to analyze precipitation extremes in a changing climate. We use a temporally varying thre

  14. Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis on Regional Economic Disparity of Northeast Economic Region in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Fei; Zhou Chenghu

    2009-01-01

    Popular regional inequality indexes such as variation coefficient and Gini coefficient can only reveal overall inequal-it),, and have limited ability in revealing spatial dependence or spatial agglomeration.Recently some methods of exploratory spatial data analysis such as spatial autocorrelation have provid-ed effective tools to analyze spatial agglomeration and cluster, which can reveal the pattern of regional inequality.This article attempts to use spatial autocorrelation at county level to get refined spatial pattern of regional disparity in Chinese northeast economic region over 2000-2006 (2001 absent).The result in-dicates that the basic trend of regional economy is an increasing concentration of growth among counties in northeast economic region, and there are two geographical clusters of poorer coun-ties including the counties in western Liaoning Province and adjacent counties in Inner Mongolia, poorer counties of Heihe, Qiqihar and Suihua in Heilongjiang Province.This article also reveals that we can use the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis as the supplementary analysis methods in regional eco-nomic analysis.

  15. Delineation and analysis of chromosomal regions specifying Yersinia pestis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derbise, Anne; Chenal-Francisque, Viviane; Huon, Christèle; Fayolle, Corinne; Demeure, Christian E; Chane-Woon-Ming, Béatrice; Médigue, Claudine; Hinnebusch, B Joseph; Carniel, Elisabeth

    2010-09-01

    Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, has recently diverged from the less virulent enteropathogen Yersinia pseudotuberculosis. Its emergence has been characterized by massive genetic loss and inactivation and limited gene acquisition. The acquired genes include two plasmids, a filamentous phage, and a few chromosomal loci. The aim of this study was to characterize the chromosomal regions acquired by Y. pestis. Following in silico comparative analysis and PCR screening of 98 strains of Y. pseudotuberculosis and Y. pestis, we found that eight chromosomal loci (six regions [R1pe to R6pe] and two coding sequences [CDS1pe and CDS2pe]) specified Y. pestis. Signatures of integration by site specific or homologous recombination were identified for most of them. These acquisitions and the loss of ancestral DNA sequences were concentrated in a chromosomal region opposite to the origin of replication. The specific regions were acquired very early during Y. pestis evolution and were retained during its microevolution, suggesting that they might bring some selective advantages. Only one region (R3pe), predicted to carry a lambdoid prophage, is most likely no longer functional because of mutations. With the exception of R1pe and R2pe, which have the potential to encode a restriction/modification and a sugar transport system, respectively, no functions could be predicted for the other Y. pestis-specific loci. To determine the role of the eight chromosomal loci in the physiology and pathogenicity of the plague bacillus, each of them was individually deleted from the bacterial chromosome. None of the deletants exhibited defects during growth in vitro. Using the Xenopsylla cheopis flea model, all deletants retained the capacity to produce a stable and persistent infection and to block fleas. Similarly, none of the deletants caused any acute flea toxicity. In the mouse model of infection, all deletants were fully virulent upon subcutaneous or aerosol infections. Therefore

  16. Delineation and Analysis of Chromosomal Regions Specifying Yersinia pestis▿ †

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derbise, Anne; Chenal-Francisque, Viviane; Huon, Christèle; Fayolle, Corinne; Demeure, Christian E.; Chane-Woon-Ming, Béatrice; Médigue, Claudine; Hinnebusch, B. Joseph; Carniel, Elisabeth

    2010-01-01

    Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, has recently diverged from the less virulent enteropathogen Yersinia pseudotuberculosis. Its emergence has been characterized by massive genetic loss and inactivation and limited gene acquisition. The acquired genes include two plasmids, a filamentous phage, and a few chromosomal loci. The aim of this study was to characterize the chromosomal regions acquired by Y. pestis. Following in silico comparative analysis and PCR screening of 98 strains of Y. pseudotuberculosis and Y. pestis, we found that eight chromosomal loci (six regions [R1pe to R6pe] and two coding sequences [CDS1pe and CDS2pe]) specified Y. pestis. Signatures of integration by site specific or homologous recombination were identified for most of them. These acquisitions and the loss of ancestral DNA sequences were concentrated in a chromosomal region opposite to the origin of replication. The specific regions were acquired very early during Y. pestis evolution and were retained during its microevolution, suggesting that they might bring some selective advantages. Only one region (R3pe), predicted to carry a lambdoid prophage, is most likely no longer functional because of mutations. With the exception of R1pe and R2pe, which have the potential to encode a restriction/modification and a sugar transport system, respectively, no functions could be predicted for the other Y. pestis-specific loci. To determine the role of the eight chromosomal loci in the physiology and pathogenicity of the plague bacillus, each of them was individually deleted from the bacterial chromosome. None of the deletants exhibited defects during growth in vitro. Using the Xenopsylla cheopis flea model, all deletants retained the capacity to produce a stable and persistent infection and to block fleas. Similarly, none of the deletants caused any acute flea toxicity. In the mouse model of infection, all deletants were fully virulent upon subcutaneous or aerosol infections. Therefore

  17. Ethics Camp: The Appropriate Management Model for Northeastern Region Youth, Ecclesiastical Region 9

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wongsathit Wisupee

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Youth’s ethics tended to be a continuous increased problem and they were in their age without judgment. Youths were very important for national development in future, if their problems were not urgently solved it would overall effect to way of live in their families, communities, socials and Thailand. Approach: This research aimed to study backgrounds, current conditions, problems on management and the appropriate management model of Ethics Camp for the Northeastern Region Youth, Ecclesiastical Region 9. The study was a qualitative research conducted in 4 provinces 1 place of the Northeastern Region Youth, Ecclesiastical Region 9 and Thailand. Observation form, survey form, interview form, focus group discussion and study shop were used as research tools. Triangulation was used to test all data and data was analyzed by descriptive research. Results: The result founded that the background in overall of 4 places were began by making study trips of directors or lecturing monks at famous camp and they, later, brought those models back to establish ethics camps in their own provinces. For current conditions and problems, it was found that; in aspect of personnel-there was lacking of competent personnel, in aspect of budget-there was lacking of budget for expenses, in aspect of material-some place had old and damaged equipments, in aspect of management-there was not enough budget for long-term training and also lacking of lecturing monks, in aspect of marketing-there was lacking of public relation and distinct documents of courses and in aspect of technological innovation-lecturing monks had no knowledge to produce modern technological media. For appropriate management model, it was found that; in aspect of personnel-camp directors should have wide and long vision, intelligence, perseverance, honesty and human relation while lecturing monks must be professional; in aspect of budget-charges for any expenses should be depended on

  18. A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

    2017-04-01

    As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled

  19. Assessing the Transferability of the Regional Climate Model REMO to Different COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claas Teichmann

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The transferability of the regional climate model REMO with a standard setup over different regions of the world has been evaluated. The study is based on the idea that the modeling parameters and parameterizations in a regional climate model should be robust to adequately simulate the major climatic characteristic of different regions around the globe. If a model is not able to do that, there might be a chance of an “overtuning” to the “home-region”, which means that the model physics are tuned in a way that it might cover some more fundamental errors, e.g., in the dynamics. All simulations carried out in this study contribute to the joint effort by the international regional downscaling community called COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX. REMO has been integrated over six CORDEX domains forced with the so-called perfect boundary conditions obtained from the global reanalysis dataset ERA-Interim for the period 1989 to 2008. These six domains include Africa, Europe, North America, South America, West Asia and the Mediterranean region. Each of the six simulations was conducted with the identical model setup which allows investigating the transferability of a single model to regions with substantially different climate characteristics. For the consistent evaluation over the different domains, a new evaluation framework is presented by combining the Köppen-Trewartha climate classification with temperature-precipitation relationship plots and a probability density function (PDF skill score method. The evaluation of the spatial and temporal characteristics of simulated precipitation and temperature, in comparison to observational datasets, shows that REMO is able to simulate the mean annual climatic features over all the domains quite reasonably, but still some biases remain. The regions over the Amazon and near the coast of major upwelling regions have a significant warm bias. Wet and dry biases appear over the

  20. Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical Documentation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vries B de; Vuuren D van; Elzen M den; Janssen M; MNV

    2002-01-01

    Er wordt een gedetailleerde beschrijving gegeven van het Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) simulatiemodel. Het model is ontwikkeld en toegepast in nauwe relatie met het Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) 2.1-2.2. . Het TIMER model is een systeem-dynamisch simulatiemode

  1. Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical Documentation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vries B de; Vuuren D van; Elzen M den; Janssen M; MNV

    2002-01-01

    Er wordt een gedetailleerde beschrijving gegeven van het Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) simulatiemodel. Het model is ontwikkeld en toegepast in nauwe relatie met het Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) 2.1-2.2. . Het TIMER model is een systeem-dynamisch

  2. Model Analysis ToolKit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-05-15

    MATK provides basic functionality to facilitate model analysis within the Python computational environment. Model analysis setup within MATK includes: - define parameters - define observations - define model (python function) - define samplesets (sets of parameter combinations) Currently supported functionality includes: - forward model runs - Latin-Hypercube sampling of parameters - multi-dimensional parameter studies - parallel execution of parameter samples - model calibration using internal Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm - model calibration using lmfit package - model calibration using levmar package - Markov Chain Monte Carlo using pymc package MATK facilitates model analysis using: - scipy - calibration (scipy.optimize) - rpy2 - Python interface to R

  3. Balancing regional industrial development: analysis on regional disparity of China's industrial emissions and policy implications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liang, Hanwei; Dong, Liang; Luo, Xiao;

    2016-01-01

    Efficient industrial emissions mitigation strategy is critical for China's national action on climate change and sustainable development, considering its rapid industrialization. Regional disparity brings difficulties and uncertainties to policy implementation in China. Therefore, an investigatio...... and an environmental inequity. Regional oriented mitigation strategies are required to balance regional disparity, so as to realize the industrial emission control policy under the “equity and efficiency” principle.......Efficient industrial emissions mitigation strategy is critical for China's national action on climate change and sustainable development, considering its rapid industrialization. Regional disparity brings difficulties and uncertainties to policy implementation in China. Therefore, an investigation...... on the regional features of industrial emissions is critical to better decision makings. While to date, related studies have been rather few. This paper applies a spatial analysis on regional features of China's industrial emissions (SO2, NOx and PM2.5 and CO2 emission) in 31 provinces. Spatial autocorrelation...

  4. Analysis of national and regional landslide inventories in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hervás, J.; Van Den Eeckhaut, M.

    2012-04-01

    methods only occasionally included advanced technologies such as remote sensing. With regard to the inventory maps of most databases, the analysis illustrates the high variability of scales (between 1:10 000 and 1:1 M for national inventories, and from 1:10 000 to 1:25 000 for regional inventories), landslide classification systems and representation symbology. It also shows the difficulties to precisely locate landslides referred to in historical documents only. In addition, information on landslide magnitude, geometrical characteristics and age reported in national and regional databases greatly differs, even within the same database, as it strongly depends on the objectives of the database, the data collection methods used, the resources employed and the remaining landslide expression. In particular, landslide initiation and/or reactivation dates are generally estimated in less than 25% of records, thus making hazard and hence risk assessment difficult. In most databases, scarce information on landslide impact (damage and casualties) further hinders risk assessment at regional and national scales. Estimated landslide activity, which is very relevant to early warning and emergency management, is only included in half of the national databases and restricted to part of the landslides registered. Moreover, the availability of this information is not substantially higher in regional databases than in national ones. Most landslide databases further included information on geo-environmental characteristics at the landslide site, which is very important for modelling landslide zoning. Although a number of national and regional agencies provide free web-GIS visualisation services, the potential of existing landslide databases is often not fully exploited as, in many cases, access by the general public and external researchers is restricted. Additionally, the availability of information only in the national or local language is common to most national and regional databases

  5. Regional Climate Modeling over South America: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvina A. Solman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This review summarizes the progress achieved on regional climate modeling activities over South America since the early efforts at the beginning of the 2000s until now. During the last 10 years, simulations with regional climate models (RCMs have been performed for several purposes over the region. Early efforts were mainly focused on sensitivity studies to both physical mechanisms and technical aspects of RCMs. The last developments were focused mainly on providing high-resolution information on regional climate change. This paper describes the most outstanding contributions from the isolated efforts to the ongoing coordinated RCM activities in the framework of the CORDEX initiative, which represents a major endeavor to produce ensemble climate change projections at regional scales and allows exploring the associated range of uncertainties. The remaining challenges in modeling South American climate features are also discussed.

  6. Multimedia Modeling System Response to Regional Land Management Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooter, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    A multi-media system of nitrogen and co-pollutant models describing critical physical and chemical processes that cascade synergistically and competitively through the environment, the economy and society has been developed at the USEPA Office of Research and Development. It is populated with linked or fully coupled models that address nutrient research questions such as, "How might future policy, climate or land cover change in the Mississippi River Basin affect Nitrogen and Phosphorous loadings to the Gulf of Mexico" or, "What are the management implications of regional-scale land management changes for the sustainability of air, land and water quality?" This second question requires explicit consideration of economic (e.g. sector prices) and societal (e.g. land management) factors. Metrics that illustrate biosphere-atmosphere interactions such as atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations, atmospheric N loading to surface water, soil organic N and N percolation to groundwater are calculated. An example application has been completed that is driven by a coupled agricultural and energy sector model scenario. The economic scenario assumes that by 2022 there is: 1) no detectable change in weather patterns relative to 2002; 2) a concentration of stover processing facilities in the Upper Midwest; 3) increasing offshore Pacific and Atlantic marine transportation; and 4) increasing corn, soybean and wheat production that meets future demand for food, feed and energy feedstocks. This production goal is reached without adding or removing agricultural land area whose extent is defined by the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 2002v2011 classes 81 and 82. This goal does require, however, crop shifts and agricultural management changes. The multi-media system response over our U.S. 12km rectangular grid resolution analysis suggests that there are regions of potential environmental and health costs, as well as large areas that could experience unanticipated environmental and health

  7. A Regional Model Study of Synoptic Features Over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Saloum, Mahaman; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWR initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation "forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days. Results imply that information via the lateral boundary conditions is not always sufficient to minimize departures between simulated and actual precipitation patterns for more than several days. In addition, there was some evidence that the new initialization may increase the simulations' sensitivity to the quality of lateral boundary conditions.

  8. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  9. Automated regional behavioral analysis for human brain images

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lancaster, Jack L; Laird, Angela R; Eickhoff, Simon B; Martinez, Michael J; Fox, P Mickle; Fox, Peter T

    2012-01-01

    Behavioral categories of functional imaging experiments along with standardized brain coordinates of associated activations were used to develop a method to automate regional behavioral analysis of human brain images...

  10. The Analysis of the Age Structure of Regional Fixed Capital in the Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Mazouch

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with an estimate and analysis of the value of regional net fixed capital stock and the age structure of machinery and equipment in Czech agriculture. In order to perform such analysis, the official model of perpetual inventory method is transformed into the Markov chain model and applied on regional data separately. Regional net fixed capital stock is presented for the period of 2008-2013. The development of the average age of machinery and equipment comprises a potential indicator of the modernisation process in the industry. The analysis of the age structure is based on the structure heterogeneity indicator. For these purposes, the real age structure in each Czech region is compared with the theoretical stable and stationary structure. Currently, the most heterogeneous age structure of machinery and equipment occurs in Prague and the Karlovy Vary region.

  11. The regional prediction model of PM10 concentrations for Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güler, Nevin; Güneri İşçi, Öznur

    2016-11-01

    This study is aimed to predict a regional model for weekly PM10 concentrations measured air pollution monitoring stations in Turkey. There are seven geographical regions in Turkey and numerous monitoring stations at each region. Predicting a model conventionally for each monitoring station requires a lot of labor and time and it may lead to degradation in quality of prediction when the number of measurements obtained from any õmonitoring station is small. Besides, prediction models obtained by this way only reflect the air pollutant behavior of a small area. This study uses Fuzzy C-Auto Regressive Model (FCARM) in order to find a prediction model to be reflected the regional behavior of weekly PM10 concentrations. The superiority of FCARM is to have the ability of considering simultaneously PM10 concentrations measured monitoring stations in the specified region. Besides, it also works even if the number of measurements obtained from the monitoring stations is different or small. In order to evaluate the performance of FCARM, FCARM is executed for all regions in Turkey and prediction results are compared to statistical Autoregressive (AR) Models predicted for each station separately. According to Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) criteria, it is observed that FCARM provides the better predictions with a less number of models.

  12. Modelling regional land use: the quest for the appropriate method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soltani Largani, A.

    2013-01-01

    The demand for spatially-explicit predictions of regional crop-yield patterns is increasing. An approach to assess a priori and/or future ranges of alternative scenarios spatial yield patterns at the regional scale is the application of mechanistic crop growth simulation models (CGSMs) (e.g. Launary

  13. Effective single scattering albedo estimation using regional climate model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tesfaye, M

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, by modifying the optical parameterization of Regional Climate model (RegCM), the authors have computed and compared the Effective Single-Scattering Albedo (ESSA) which is a representative of VIS spectral region. The arid, semi...

  14. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Samoa

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at...

  15. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the island of Guam at...

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: CNMI

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern...

  17. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 3.5-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian island of Oahu at...

  18. Model Checking as Static Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Fuyuan

    Both model checking and static analysis are prominent approaches to detecting software errors. Model Checking is a successful formal method for verifying properties specified in temporal logics with respect to transition systems. Static analysis is also a powerful method for validating program...... properties which can predict safe approximations to program behaviors. In this thesis, we have developed several static analysis based techniques to solve model checking problems, aiming at showing the link between static analysis and model checking. We focus on logical approaches to static analysis......-calculus can be encoded as the intended model of SFP. Our research results have strengthened the link between model checking and static analysis. This provides a theoretical foundation for developing a unied tool for both model checking and static analysis techniques....

  19. Game theoretic analysis for carbon emission permits trading among multiple world regions with an optimizing global energy model; Saitekikagata sekai energy model ni motozuku tachiikikan CO2 haishutsu kyokasho torihiki no game ronteki bunseki

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akimoto, K.; Matsunaga, A.; Fujii, Y. [Yokohama National University, Yokohama (Japan); Yamaji, K. [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)

    1998-10-01

    Carbon emissions which would cause global warming were agreed to be constrained at COP3 in Kyoto. In addition, carton emission permits trading was also approved to be introduced. The emission permits trading is expected to achieve efficient carbon emission reduction, equalizing the marginal costs of the emission reduction for the participating countries. In other words, the permits trading allows participants to reduce emissions where it is least expensive to do so. However, the inadequate introduction of the trading systems may impose unfairly greater burden on some countries, and therefore careful evaluation of the system would be indispensable for its implementation. In this paper, we attempt to analyze the emission permits trading. using the theory of cooperative games with a global energy model of optimization type. We assumed that seven world regions as players participate the permits trading system under the condition of the emission reduction target presented at COP3 and so on, and show the nucleolus of the grand coalition games, and the computational results of primary energy supplies and CO2 shadow prices. The insights of this research indicate that in order to stabilize the grand coalition, a noticeable amount of additional transfer of money would be needed besides the payments associated with the emission permits trading. 10 refs., 7 figs., 5 tabs.

  20. Times Series Analysis Of Road Safety Trends At The Regional Level In Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Żukowska Joanna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents possibility of applying a structural times series modeling with explanatory and intervention variables as a tool capable for explaining the changes in the monthly number of fatalities and seriously injured in traffic accidents. The analysis covers regional level and takes into consideration traffic accidents data of two regions: Pomorskie and Warmia-Mazury. In addition short-term forecasts for the two regions were developed and verified.

  1. Process analysis and sensitivity study of regional ozone formation over the Pearl River Delta, China, during the PRIDE-PRD2004 campaign using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Wang

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ modeling system is used to simulate the ozone (O3 episodes during the Program of Regional Integrated Experiments of Air Quality over the Pearl River Delta, China, in October 2004 (PRIDE-PRD2004. The simulation suggests that O3 pollution is a regional phenomenon in the Pearl River Delta (PRD. Elevated O3 levels often occurred in the southwestern inland PRD, Pearl River estuary (PRE, and southern coastal areas during the 1-month field campaign. Three evolution patterns of simulated surface O3 are summarized based on different near-ground flow conditions. More than 75% of days featured interactions between weak synoptic forcing and local sea-land circulation. Integrated process rate (IPR analysis shows that photochemical production is a dominant contributor to O3 enhancement from 09:00 to 15:00 local standard time in the atmospheric boundary layer over most areas with elevated O3 occurrence in the mid-afternoon. The simulated ozone production efficiency is 2–8 O3 molecules per NOx molecule oxidized in areas with high O3 chemical production. Precursors of O3 originating from different source regions in the central PRD are mixed during the course of transport to downwind rural areas during nighttime and early morning, where they then contribute to the daytime O3 photochemical production. The sea-land circulation plays an important role on the regional O3 formation and distribution over PRD. Sensitivity studies suggest that O3 formation is volatile-organic-compound-limited in the central inland PRD, PRE, and surrounding coastal areas with less chemical aging (NOx/NOy>0.6, but is NOx-limited in the rural southwestern PRD with aged air (NOx/NOy<0.3.

  2. Factor analysis of small business conditions of boundary region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Леся Михайлівна Газуда

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In terms of border-zone and capabilities of direct implementation of foreign economic cooperation with the Member States of the European Union is necessary to intensify the development of priority economic activities in Zakarpattia region. Background and specific characteristics of small business development in the region are considered in the article. It is conducted the multivariate correlation and regression analysis of conditions of regional small business development for the main indicators, including the volume of sales, the gross regional product, the economically active population, capital investment, exports and imports

  3. Research on regional capability constructive models of cleat development mechanism

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Leishan; Liu Qingqiang; Geng Jie; Lu Genfa

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change has been identified as the ftrst of the top ten environmental problems in the world,As climate change will have serious effects on the social and economic development and everyday living of people in the world,many of the countries and governments are taking untiring efforts to combat climate change.As one of the important mechanisms of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Kyoto Protocol,Clean DevelopmentMechanism (CDM) has not only provided chance.for developed countries to ftdfill greenhouse emission reduction obligations,but also provided an opportunity for developing countries to combat climate change under the sustainabledevelopment frame.The dual objectives of developed countries' GHG emissions' reduction obligation achievement and developing countries'sustainable development will be achieved under the CDM.As a country with responsibility,China has been positively developing CDM projects and promoting energy saving and emissions reduction during the three years after the Kyoto Protocol came into force,and CDM projects development has always been in the front tank in the world However,as the vast clime within China,notable differences occur in different regions.In order to promote the CDM development in China,it is necessary to have regional CDM capability construction in accor dance with the practicality in different regions.Based on the Slat Analysis of developed CDM projects and current CDM development status in China,problems in the CDM development of China,including the inefficiency in sinall and medium-sized CDM Projects development,over centralization of CDM development scope and especially the differentiated provincial CDM projects developing capability are pointed out in the paper.What's more,reasons forthe problems are analyzed from the leading factors,including policy orient,information asymmetry and weak CDMcapability.In order to promote CDM projects development in China,a new CDM capability construction model is put

  4. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  5. Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution

    KAUST Repository

    Kalenderski, Stoitchko Dimitrov

    2011-03-17

    We develop a physically motivated statistical model for regional ozone air pollution by separating the ground-level pollutant concentration field into three components, namely: transport, local production and large-scale mean trend mostly dominated by emission rates. The model is novel in the field of environmental spatial statistics in that it is a combined deterministic-statistical model, which gives a new perspective to the modelling of air pollution. The model is presented in a Bayesian hierarchical formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate that the model vastly outperforms existing, simpler modelling approaches. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering different aspects of an air pollution problem as well as taking into account the physical bases that govern the processes of interest. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..

  6. The Analysis of Regional Disparities in Romania with Gini/Struck Coefficients of Concentration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANIELA ANTONESCU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A key objective of regional development policy is to reduce disparities between regions and to ensure a relatively balanced level of development. To achieve this goal studies and social and economic analysis based on certain techniques and methods of evaluation are necessary. In scientific literature, there are plenty of models that can be applied to assess regional disparities. One of the methods commonly used in practice is related to the calculation and analysis of the degree of concentration/diversification of activities within a region. The increase or decrease in the degree of concentration of certain activities or areas of activity in a region provides information on: - the level of overall economic development; - economic development and growth rate; - the specific features of the region, the potential, local traditions, etc. The expert analysis indicate that, in a high level of overall development or a sustained economic growth rate, there are favorable conditions for economic activities to locate in any region, so they are relatively uniformly distributed throughout the country.Knowing the degree of concentration and also the influence factors are useful in making decisions and setting regional policy measures.This article proposes a synthetic analysis of the development level of regions in Romania with the concentration/diversification model (Gini/Struck coefficients, based on the existing key statistical indicators.

  7. Seismicity acceleration model and its application to several earthquake regions in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1999-01-01

    With the theory of subcritical crack growth, we can deduce the fundamental equation of regional seismicity acceleration model. Applying this model to intraplate earthquake regions, we select three earthquake subplates: North China Subplate, Chuan-Dian Block and Xinjiang Subplate, and divide the three subplates into seven researched regions by the difference of seismicity and tectonic conditions. With the modified equation given by Sornette and Sammis (1995), we analysis the seismicity of each region. To those strong earthquakes already occurred in these region, the model can give close fitting of magnitude and occurrence time, and the result in this article indicates that the seismicity acceleration model can also be used for describing the seismicity of intraplate. In the article, we give the magnitude and occurrence time of possible strong earthquakes in Shanxi, Ordos, Bole-Tuokexun, Ayinke-Wuqia earthquake regions. In the same subplate or block, the earthquake periods for each earthquake region are similar in time interval. The constant αin model can be used to describe the intensity of regional seismicity, and for the Chinese Mainland, α is 0.4 generally. To the seismicity in Taiwan and other regions with complex tectonic conditions, the model does not fit well at present.

  8. MODEL OF REGIONAL KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER: MAIN ACTORS, FRAMEWORK AND THEORY.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alla LEVITSKAIA

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses potential mechanism of regional knowledge transfer in region with poorly developed innovation infrastructure (the Autonomous Territorial Unit Gagauzia, Republic of Moldova through interactions between regional major players of the Regional Innovation System - the educational and research institutions, small and medium enterprises (SMEs and local authorities. Solution of this problem can be found in modern studies of territories innovation development through the clustering processes. Through the empirical study - innovation potential analysis of local SMEs - we proposed advantage mechanism which focused on the one type of knowledge cluster – Innovation and Educational Cluster. The symbiosis of entrepreneurs, government agencies, educational institutions and business service providers with the regional core - University, allows to increasing exchange flows of innovative knowledge between all members of the cluster and distributing them to the entire region and beyond. The results and proposals of this study formed the basis of the “Program of increasing the innovation potential of Gagauz SMEs”.

  9. 3D MHD Models of Active Region Loops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ofman, Leon

    2004-01-01

    Present imaging and spectroscopic observations of active region loops allow to determine many physical parameters of the coronal loops, such as the density, temperature, velocity of flows in loops, and the magnetic field. However, due to projection effects many of these parameters remain ambiguous. Three dimensional imaging in EUV by the STEREO spacecraft will help to resolve the projection ambiguities, and the observations could be used to setup 3D MHD models of active region loops to study the dynamics and stability of active regions. Here the results of 3D MHD models of active region loops are presented, and the progress towards more realistic 3D MHD models of active regions. In particular the effects of impulsive events on the excitation of active region loop oscillations, and the generation, propagations and reflection of EIT waves are shown. It is shown how 3D MHD models together with 3D EUV observations can be used as a diagnostic tool for active region loop physical parameters, and to advance the science of the sources of solar coronal activity.

  10. Interactive 3D computer model of the human corneolimbal region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molvaer, Rikke Kongshaug; Andreasen, Arne; Heegaard, Steffen;

    2013-01-01

    in the superior limbal region and one LEC, six LCs and 12 FSPs in the inferior limbal region. Only few LECs, LCs and FSPs were localized nasally and temporally. CONCLUSION: Interactive 3D models are a powerful tool that may help to shed more light on the existence and spatial localization of the different stem......PURPOSE: This study aims to clarify the existence of and to map the localization of different proposed stem cell niches in the corneal limbal region. MATERIALS AND METHODS: One human eye was cut into 2200 consecutive sections. Every other section was stained with haematoxylin and eosin, digitized...... in the limbal region: limbal epithelial crypts (LECs), limbal crypts (LCs) and focal stromal projections (FSPs). In all, eight LECs, 25 LCs and 105 FSPs were identified in the limbal region. The LECs, LCs and FSPs were predominantly located in the superior limbal region with seven LECs, 19 LCs and 93 FSPs...

  11. Regional modeling of cadmium leaching to groundwater in the Kempen region, The Netherlands

    OpenAIRE

    van der Grift, B.; J. C. Rozemeijer; J. Griffioen

    2003-01-01

    Sandy soils in the border area of Belgium and the Netherlands (the Kempen region), are heavily contaminated with cadmium and zinc by atmospheric deposition from nearby smelters. Leaching of heavy metals from the topsoil is a major risk for groundwater contamination. The sandy soils in the Kempen area are vulnerable for leaching due to the acidifying conditions in these soils. Regional modeling of groundwater contamination by leaching of cadmium from soils in a diffusely polluted area is the s...

  12. Emergy-Based Regional Socio-Economic Metabolism Analysis: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis and Decomposition Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zilong Zhang

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Integrated analysis on socio-economic metabolism could provide a basis for understanding and optimizing regional sustainability. The paper conducted socio-economic metabolism analysis by means of the emergy accounting method coupled with data envelopment analysis and decomposition analysis techniques to assess the sustainability of Qingyang city and its eight sub-region system, as well as to identify the major driving factors of performance change during 2000–2007, to serve as the basis for future policy scenarios. The results indicate that Qingyang greatly depended on non-renewable emergy flows and feedback (purchased emergy flows, except the two sub-regions, named Huanxian and Huachi, which highly depended on renewable emergy flow. Zhenyuan, Huanxian and Qingcheng were identified as being relatively emergy efficient, and the other five sub-regions have potential to reduce natural resource inputs and waste output to achieve the goal of efficiency. The results of decomposition analysis show that the economic growth, as well as the increased emergy yield ratio and population not accompanied by a sufficient increase of resource utilization efficiency are the main drivers of the unsustainable economic model in Qingyang and call for polices to promote the efficiency of resource utilization and to optimize natural resource use.

  13. Regional Mapping, Modelling, and Monitoring of Tree Aboveground Biomass Carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudak, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    Airborne lidar collections are preferred for mapping aboveground biomass carbon (AGBC), while historical Landsat imagery are preferred for monitoring decadal scale forest cover change. Our modelling approach tracks AGBC change regionally using Landsat time series metrics; training areas are defined by airborne lidar extents within which AGBC is accurately mapped with high confidence. Geospatial topographic and climate layers are also included in the predictive model. Validation is accomplished using systematically sampled Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot data that have been independently collected, processed and summarized at the county level. Our goal is to demonstrate that spatially and temporally aggregated annual AGBC map predictions show no bias when compared to annual county-level summaries across the Northwest USA. A prominent source of bias is trees outside forest; much of the more arid portions of our study area meet the FIA definition of non-forest because the tree cover does not exceed their minimum tree cover threshold. We employ detailed tree cover maps derived from high-resolution aerial imagery to extend our AGBC predictions into non-forest areas. We also employ Landsat-derived annual disturbance maps into our mapped AGBC predictions prior to aggregation and validation.

  14. Regional Scale/Regional Climate Model Development and Its Applications at Goddard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W.; Qian, J.; Jia, Y.; Wetzel, P.; Chou, M.-D.; Wang, Y.; Lynn, B.

    2000-01-01

    A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model (Penn State/NCAR MM5) with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America region.

  15. SCOWLP classification: Structural comparison and analysis of protein binding regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Gerd

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Detailed information about protein interactions is critical for our understanding of the principles governing protein recognition mechanisms. The structures of many proteins have been experimentally determined in complex with different ligands bound either in the same or different binding regions. Thus, the structural interactome requires the development of tools to classify protein binding regions. A proper classification may provide a general view of the regions that a protein uses to bind others and also facilitate a detailed comparative analysis of the interacting information for specific protein binding regions at atomic level. Such classification might be of potential use for deciphering protein interaction networks, understanding protein function, rational engineering and design. Description Protein binding regions (PBRs might be ideally described as well-defined separated regions that share no interacting residues one another. However, PBRs are often irregular, discontinuous and can share a wide range of interacting residues among them. The criteria to define an individual binding region can be often arbitrary and may differ from other binding regions within a protein family. Therefore, the rational behind protein interface classification should aim to fulfil the requirements of the analysis to be performed. We extract detailed interaction information of protein domains, peptides and interfacial solvent from the SCOWLP database and we classify the PBRs of each domain family. For this purpose, we define a similarity index based on the overlapping of interacting residues mapped in pair-wise structural alignments. We perform our classification with agglomerative hierarchical clustering using the complete-linkage method. Our classification is calculated at different similarity cut-offs to allow flexibility in the analysis of PBRs, feature especially interesting for those protein families with conflictive binding regions

  16. The active region in galactic nuclei a spinar model

    CERN Document Server

    Pacini, F

    1978-01-01

    Shows that in the spinar model for active galactic nuclei the physical parameters of the central region are unequivocally determined by observational qualities. In homogeneous models the energy output via the inverse Compton effect should be of the same order as the primary emission. (5 refs).

  17. Brief Analysis of Regional Variants in English%Brief Analysis of Regional Variants in Enghsh

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张炳科

    2008-01-01

    It is universally acknowledged that regional variants exist in each language, for it is impossible that people always employ the same pronunciation or vocabulary or even grammar to express the same meaning no matter how large the scope in which a language is used may be. The author of this paper is just to exemplify some regional variants in English and to analyze the factors that account for the variants ,with the purpose of teaching English well in the most efficient way.

  18. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Locatelli

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on the methane emissions estimated by an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, given by 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS inverse system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same set-up has been used to produce the synthetic observations and to compute flux estimates by inverse modelling, which means that only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg CH4 per year at the global scale, representing 5% of the total methane emissions. At continental and yearly scales, transport model errors have bigger impacts depending on the region, ranging from 36 Tg CH4 in north America to 7 Tg CH4 in Boreal Eurasian (from 23% to 48%. At the model gridbox scale, the spread of inverse estimates can even reach 150% of the prior flux. Thus, transport model errors contribute to significant uncertainties on the methane estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are invoked. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher resolution models. The analysis of methane estimated fluxes in these different configurations questions the consistency of transport model errors in current inverse systems. For future methane inversions, an improvement in the modelling of the atmospheric transport would make the estimations more accurate. Likewise, errors of the observation covariance matrix should be more consistently prescribed in future inversions in order to limit the impact of transport model errors on estimated methane

  19. Bounds for the chaotic region in the Lorenz model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrio, Roberto; Serrano, Sergio

    2009-08-01

    In a previous paper, the authors made an extensive numerical study of the Lorenz model, changing all three parameters of the system. We conjectured that the region of parameters where the Lorenz model is chaotic is bounded for fixed r. In this paper, we give a theoretical proof of the conjecture by obtaining theoretical bounds for the chaotic region and by using Fenichel theory. The theoretical bounds are complemented with numerical studies performed using the Maximum Lyapunov Exponent and OFLI2 techniques, and a comparison of both sets of results is shown. Finally, we provide a complete three-dimensional model of the chaotic regime depending on the three parameters.

  20. Simultaneous-equations Analysis in Regional Science and Economic Geography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mitze, Timo; Stephan, Andreas

    This paper provides an overview over simultaneous equation models (SEM) in the context of analyses based on regional data. We describe various modelling approaches and highlight close link of SEMs to theory and also comment on the advantages and disadvantages of SEMs.We present selected empirical...

  1. Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, H. C.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.

    2007-05-01

    Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.

  2. A model of regional economic development with increasing returns

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIAN Edward Y.; YAO Yao-jun; CHEN Gary

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops mathematically and empirically tractable regional and interregional model of economic development with increasing returns to scale (IRS) under the neoclassical assumptions. A one-sector, two-region model in which one region exhibits IRS is presented and the whole nation presents constant returns to scale. The development of the local IRS economy is shown to be constrained to a "moving equilibrium" path. The preliminary empirical results are sufficiently supportive of the argument to encourage further research along the lines of the model. In particular, the neoclassical model does not predict negative coefficients on the real rental value of capital in regressions explaining population or employment relative to that in the nation.

  3. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  4. Diagnostic Modeling of PAMS VOC Observation on Regional Scale Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S.; Liu, T.; Chen, T.; Ou Yang, C.; Wang, J.; Chang, J. S.

    2008-12-01

    While a number of gas-phase chemical mechanisms, such as CBM-Z, RADM2, SAPRC-07 had been successful in studying gas-phase atmospheric chemical processes they all used some lumped organic species to varying degrees. Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) has been in use for over ten years and yet it is not clear how the detailed organic species measured by PAMS compare to the lumped model species under regional-scale transport and chemistry interactions. By developing a detailed mechanism specifically for the PAMS organics and embedding this diagnostic model within a regional-scale transport and chemistry model we can then directly compare PAMS observation with regional-scale model simulations. We modify one regional-scale chemical transport model (Taiwan Air Quality Model, TAQM) by adding a submodel with chemical mechanism for interactions of the 56 species observed by PAMS. This submodel then calculates the time evolution of these 56 PAMS species within the environment established by TAQM. It is assumed that TAQM can simulate the overall regional-scale environment including impact of regional-scale transport and time evolution of oxidants and radicals. Therefore we can scale these influences to the PAMS organic species and study their time evolution with their species-specific source functions, meteorological transport, and chemical interactions. Model simulations of each species are compared with PAMS hourly surface measurements. A case study located in a metropolitan area in central Taiwan showed that with wind speeds lower than 3 m/s, when meteorological simulation is comparable with observation, the diurnal pattern of each species performs well with PAMS data. It is found that for many observations meteorological transport is an influence and that local emissions of specific species must be represented correctly. At this time there are still species that cannot be modeled properly. We suspect this is mostly due to lack of information on local

  5. Regional Financial Development and Regional Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Suzhou City, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yong; LI Weiping

    2010-01-01

    There are many defects in researches on the relationship of the regional financial development(FD)and economic growth of China,such as simply assuming the causality direction,not highlighting financial institution,us-ing incomplete financial indicator,etc.This article,taking Suzhou City of Jiangsu Province,China as a case,builds a simple model to study the level of FD from three aspects of financial scale,structure and institution.Three original in-dicators of PRIVY(private investment/aggregate investment),DEPTH(aggregate loan/GDP)and FDIVG(FDI/GDP)are used to construct the FD economic indicator through Principal Component Analysis approach.Then we use Granger method to analyze the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou.Empirical test results show that the FD of Suzhou is the Granger reason of economic growth,while economic growth is not the reason for FD,because the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou is just in the"supply-leading"period.In terms of Suzhou experiences,the local government should strengthen the protection of private investment,improve the institutional environment,and establish the reasonable financial structure.So we can concluded that FD could play a great role in promoting economic growth at the economy takeoff stage.

  6. Bootstrapping GEE models for fMRI regional connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Angelo, Gina M; Lazar, Nicole A; Zhou, Gongfu; Eddy, William F; Morris, John C; Sheline, Yvette I

    2012-12-01

    An Alzheimer's fMRI study has motivated us to evaluate inter-regional correlations during rest between groups. We apply generalized estimating equation (GEE) models to test for differences in regional correlations across groups. Both the GEE marginal model and GEE transition model are evaluated and compared to the standard pooling Fisher-z approach using simulation studies. Standard errors of all methods are estimated both theoretically (model-based) and empirically (bootstrap). Of all the methods, we find that the transition models have the best statistical properties. Overall, the model-based standard errors and bootstrap standard errors perform about the same. We also demonstrate the methods with a functional connectivity study in a healthy cognitively normal population of ApoE4+ participants and ApoE4- participants who are recruited from the Adult Children's Study conducted at the Washington University Knight Alzheimer's Disease Research Center.

  7. Influence of microscale in snow distributed modelling in semiarid regions

    OpenAIRE

    Pimentel Leiva, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    This work focuses on the importance of the microscale snow distribution in the modelling of the snow dynamics in semiarid regions. Snow over these areas has particular features that further complicate its measuring, monitoring and modelling (e.g. several snowmelt cycles throughout the year and a very heterogeneous distribution). Most extended GIS-based calculation of snowmelt/accumulation models must deal with non-negligible scales effects below the cell size, which may result ...

  8. Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya

    OpenAIRE

    Shea, J. M.; W. W. Immerzeel; Wagnon, P.; Vincent, C; S. Bajracharya

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we apply a glacier mass balance and ice redistribution model to simulate historical and future glacier change in the Everest region of Nepal. High-resolution temperature and precipitation fields derived from gridded APHRODITE data, and validated against independent station observations from the EVK2CNR network, are used to drive the historical model from 1961 to 2007. The model is calibrated against geodetically derived esti...

  9. Analysis of Dynamic Condition Diagnosis of One Rare Regional Rainstorm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The aim was to discuss dynamic conditions for one rare regional rainstorm. [Method] By using conventional material, ground encryption automatic station materials, wind profiling radar data and Doppler radar data, strong precipitation and regional large rainstorm in Lingxi area on August 3, 2010, were expounded principal of heavy weather analysis. [Result] The precipitation process was the result of different scales and different height systems influenced by the southwest airflow in the edge of s...

  10. Analysis of Regional Effects on Market Segment Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    customers (Nielsen, 2016). Nielsen assigns every household in America to a PRIZM NE market segment based on demographics , credit card spending...REGIONAL EFFECTS ON MARKET SEGMENT PRODUCTION by James D. Moffitt June 2016 Thesis Advisor: Lyn R. Whitaker Co-Advisor: Jonathan K. Alt...REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL EFFECTS ON MARKET SEGMENT PRODUCTION 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6

  11. A statistical model for an indirect high flow estimate in the Italian watercourses. Section 2 Results analysis and comparison with other regional models; Un modello statistico per la stima indiretta delle portate di piena de corsi d'acqua italiani. Parte seconda: Analisi dei risultati e confronti con altri modelli regionali

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maione, U.; Pessarelli, N.; Tomirotti, M. [Milan Politecnico, Milan (Italy). Dipt. di Ingegneria Idraulica, Ambientale e del Rilevamento

    1999-10-01

    In this paper a regional model for the estimation of peak flood discharges of the Italian rivers is presented. The formulas have been calibrated for different groups of river basins in wide portion of the territory of the Italian country: Po basin, Emilia and Marche, Liguria and Tuscany, Campania, Basilicata, Calabria and Puglia. The estimates obtained are compared with the corresponding ones resulting from the statistical analysis of the series of annual maxima peak flood discharges and from regional models recently proposed in literature. [Italian] Nell'articolo viene presentato un modello di stima regionale delle portate al colmo di piena dei corsi d'acqua italiani (bacino del Po, Emilia, Marche, Toscania, Liguria, Campania, Basilicata, Puglia, Calabria). Le stime fornite sono infine confrontate con quelle ottenute dall'elaborazione delle serie storiche disponibili sia con quelle provenienti da modelli regionali recentemente proposti dalla letteratura.

  12. Regional frequency analysis of extremes precipitations in Northern of Mozambique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Álvarez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme precipitation events that occur over internal basins of Cabo Delgado (Northern Mozambique often result in the occurrence of flood events with associated loss of life and infrastructure. This paper presents a study of regional frequency analysis of maximum daily precipitations based on the index flood procedure with estimated parameters by L-moments approach. Observed annual maximum daily precipitation series of 12 stations with records of more than 20 years were analyzed. The discordancy and heterogeneity measures based on the L-moments suggest that the region can be considered as homogeneous. Among the candidate distributions analyzed Monte Carlo simulations identified the Generalized Logistic distribution function as the best regional fit for the region. The achieved results will be useful in hydrologic and hydraulic studies related to floods and floodplain delineation in the region.

  13. REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING STUDY FOR THE CARPATHIAN REGION USING REGCM4 EXPERIMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PIECZKA I.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The newest model version of RegCM is adapted with the ultimate aim of providing climate projection for the Carpathian region with 10 km horizontal resolution. For this purpose, first, coarse resolution reanalysis data and global climate model outputs are used to drive 50 km resolution model experiments, from which the outputs are used to provide necessary boundary conditions for the fine scale model runs. Besides the historical runs (for the period 1981-2010, RCP4.5 scenario is also analyzed in this paper for the 21st century. These experiments are essential since they form the basis of national climate and adaptation strategies by providing detailed regional scale climatic projections and enabling specific impact studies for various sectors.

  14. Regional Annual Extreme Precipitation Modeling: Choose Your Parents Wisely.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fennessey, N. M.

    2001-05-01

    A great deal of research has been invested in developing a better understanding of the characteristics of and descriptive models of annual extreme precipitation. Some advocate the analysis of the annual maximum series (AMS) others advocate the analysis of partial duration series (PDS). The former is easy to generate, the latter provides more information, which is advantageous for better estimation. Both schools of thought seem to agree that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is a good choice for the annual extreme precipitation event. Recently published work suggests that the generalized Pareto distribution (GPA) is a good choice for generating a PDS because of its analytical link with the GEV. There are, however, two well-recognized disadvantages to using the GPA for this purpose. The analyst must specify both a sampling threshold/lower-bound and a minimum time between peaks to create an acceptable PDS. Using L-moment diagrams and regional frequency analysis, a paper presented at the 1998 Spring AGU meeting suggests that daily precipitation observed in the northeast U.S. is much better described by a two parameter gamma distribution than the three parameter GPA. The 116 NOAA observatories used have periods-of-record which range from 15 to 60 complete years of no missing daily data. The observed AMS in this region is well described by a GEV. In the present work, using the L-moment estimators developed from these daily observations, serially independent gamma distributed, three parameter Pearson Type III (PE3) distributed and three parameter GPA distributed quantiles are generated for a daily period-of-record equal to that of each parent NOAA observatory. No efforts are made to specify a GPA lower bound, but many synthetic days of rainfall have negative values. The maximum value within each 365-day simulation year is retained to create three synthetic AMS, each with a different parent. L-moment diagrams of the observed, gamma day, PE3 day and GPA day

  15. The impact of technological environment on regional technical efficiency based on a stochastic frontier analysis model%基于SFA模型的科技环境对区域技术效率的影响研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刁丽琳; 张蓓; 马亚男

    2011-01-01

    技术效率是决定经济增长的关键要素,而科技环境是影响技术效率的重要因素,研究科技环境对技术效率的影响对于促进经济增长意义重大.本文研究的科技环境因素包括科技人力资源、政府科技投入和高科技产业规模等.运用随机前沿方法,本文对2000-2006年期间全国28个省、自治区和直辖市的技术效率及其科技环境影响因素进行了回归估计.研究结果表明,我国地区之间的技术效率两级分化严重,东部地区各省市的平均技术效率明显高于中西部地区,全国各地区的技术效率随时间的推移大体呈下降趋势,科技人力资源、政府科技投入和高科技产业规模与技术效率损失显著地负相关.根据以上研究结果,本文最后提出了一系列相关的政策建议.%Technical efficiency is one of the key determinants of economic growth, while technological environment is a critical factor affecting technical efficiency. In order to accelerate economic growth, it is important to understand the impact of technological environment on technical efficiency. The elements of technological environment, such as scientific and technological human resource, government expenditure on technology development, and scale of high - tech industry are identified. By using a Stochastic Frontier Analysis(SFA) model, the technical efficiency of 28 provinces( autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the central government) in China during the period between 2000 and 2006 as well as the impact of technological environment on it are estimated. The empirical result shows that there is a big gap among regions in terms of technical efficieney. The average technical efficiency of eastern region is significantly higher than that of middle and western regions. And the technical efficiency of almost all regions appears to decline over time. Moreover, scientific and technological human resource, government expenditure on

  16. Using cluster analysis to organize and explore regional GPS velocities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Robert W.; Thatcher, Wayne; Savage, James C.

    2012-01-01

    Cluster analysis offers a simple visual exploratory tool for the initial investigation of regional Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity observations, which are providing increasingly precise mappings of actively deforming continental lithosphere. The deformation fields from dense regional GPS networks can often be concisely described in terms of relatively coherent blocks bounded by active faults, although the choice of blocks, their number and size, can be subjective and is often guided by the distribution of known faults. To illustrate our method, we apply cluster analysis to GPS velocities from the San Francisco Bay Region, California, to search for spatially coherent patterns of deformation, including evidence of block-like behavior. The clustering process identifies four robust groupings of velocities that we identify with four crustal blocks. Although the analysis uses no prior geologic information other than the GPS velocities, the cluster/block boundaries track three major faults, both locked and creeping.

  17. Stability analysis of subgrade cave roofs in karst region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒋冲; 赵明华; 曹文贵

    2008-01-01

    According to the engineering features of subgrade cave roof in karst region, the clamped beam model of subgrade cave roof in karst region was set up. Based on the catastrophe theory, the cusp catastrophe model for bearing capacity of subgrade cave roof and safe thickness of subgrade cave roof in karst region was established. The necessary instability conditions of subgrade cave roof were deduced, and then the methods to determine safe thickness of cave roofs under piles and bearing capacity of subgrade cave roof were proposed. At the same time, a practical engineering project was applied to verifying this method, which has been proved successfu1ly. At last, the major factors that affect the stability on cave roof under pile in karst region were deeply discussed and some results in quality were acquired.

  18. GPS-based regional ionospheric models and their suitability in Antarctica

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    AN Jiachun; WANG Zemin; NING Xinguo

    2014-01-01

    There are a number of ionospheric models available for research and application, such as the polynomial model, generalized trigonometric series function model, low degree spherical harmonic function model, adjusted spherical harmonic function model, and spherical cap harmonic function analysis. Using observations from more than 40 continuously operating stations across Antarctica in 2010, ifve models are compared with regard to their precision and applicability to polar regions. The results show that all the models perform well in Antarctica with 0.1 TECU of residual mean value and 2 TECU of root mean square error.

  19. A PRINCIPAL-AGENT MODEL FOR REGIONAL PEST CONTROL ADOPTION

    OpenAIRE

    Ahouissoussi, Nicolas B.C.

    1995-01-01

    Investigating the underlying producer characteristics associated with regional pest control adoption revealed an interesting proposition. Early adopting producers of firm-specific techniques with characteristics including higher education, more specialized operations, and larger sized business units are dissatisfied with a regional pest control technique. This study provides an explanation of the proposition based on a principal-agent model. Empirical support for the proposition is also prese...

  20. Mathematical modeling of sediment transport jn estuaries and coastal regions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    窦国仁; 董凤舞; 窦希萍; 李禔来

    1995-01-01

    Based on the suspended sediment transport equation and transport capacity formula under the action of tidal currents and wind waves, a horizontal 2-D mathematical model of suspended sediment transport for estuaries and coastal regions is established. The verification of calculations shows that the sediment concentration distribution and sea bed deformation in the estuaries and coastal regions can be successfully simulated. Therefore, a new method for studying and solving the sediment problems in the estuarine and coastal engineering is presented.

  1. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  2. The hydrodynamical models of the cometary compact H II region

    CERN Document Server

    Zhu, Feng-Yao; Li, Juan; Zhang, Jiang-Shui; Wang, Jun-Zhi

    2015-01-01

    We have developed a full numerical method to study the gas dynamics of cometary ultra-compact (UC) H II regions, and associated photodissociation regions (PDRs). The bow-shock and champagne-flow models with a $40.9/21.9 M_\\odot$ star are simulated. In the bow-shock models, the massive star is assumed to move through dense ($n=8000~cm^{-3}$) molecular material with a stellar velocity of $15~km~s^{-1}$. In the champagne-flow models, an exponential distribution of density with a scale height of 0.2 pc is assumed. The profiles of the [Ne II] 12.81\\mum and $H_2~S(2)$ lines from the ionized regions and PDRs are compared for two sets of models. In champagne-flow models, emission lines from the ionized gas clearly show the effect of acceleration along the direction toward the tail due to the density gradient. The kinematics of the molecular gas inside the dense shell is mainly due to the expansion of the H II region. However, in bow-shock models the ionized gas mainly moves in the same direction as the stellar motion...

  3. Static and Dynamic Modeling of a Solar Active Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Harry P.; Winebarger, Amy R.

    2007-09-01

    Recent hydrostatic simulations of solar active regions have shown that it is possible to reproduce both the total intensity and the general morphology of the high-temperature emission observed at soft X-ray wavelengths using static heating models. These static models, however, cannot account for the lower temperature emission. In addition, there is ample observational evidence that the solar corona is highly variable, indicating a significant role for dynamical processes in coronal heating. Because they are computationally demanding, full hydrodynamic simulations of solar active regions have not been considered previously. In this paper we make first application of an impulsive heating model to the simulation of an entire active region, AR 8156 observed on 1998 February 16. We model this region by coupling potential field extrapolations to full solutions of the time-dependent hydrodynamic loop equations. To make the problem more tractable we begin with a static heating model that reproduces the emission observed in four different Yohkoh Soft X-Ray Telescope (SXT) filters and consider impulsive heating scenarios that yield time-averaged SXT intensities that are consistent with the static case. We find that it is possible to reproduce the total observed soft X-ray emission in all of the SXT filters with a dynamical heating model, indicating that nanoflare heating is consistent with the observational properties of the high-temperature solar corona. At EUV wavelengths the simulated emission shows more coronal loops, but the agreement between the simulation and the observation is still not acceptable.

  4. Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bailey Fosdick

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: The United Nations (UN Population Division constructs probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011, which produces predictive distributions of the TFR for individual countries. The UN is interested in publishing probabilistic projections for aggregates of countries, such as regions and trading blocs. This requires joint probabilistic projections of future countryspecific TFRs, taking account of the correlations between them. Objective: We propose an extension of the Bayesian hierarchical model that allows for probabilistic projection of aggregate TFR for any set of countries. Methods: We model the correlation between country forecast errors as a linear function of time invariant covariates, namely whether the countries are contiguous, whether they had a common colonizer after 1945, and whether they are in the same UN region. The resulting correlation model is incorporated into the Bayesian hierarchical model's error distribution. Results: We produce predictive distributions of TFR for 1990-2010 for each of the UN's primary regions. We find that the proportions of the observed values that fall within the prediction intervals from our method are closer to their nominal levels than those produced by the current model. Conclusions: Our results suggest that a substantial proportion of the correlation between forecast errors for TFR in different countries is due to the countries' geographic proximity to one another, and that if this correlation is accounted for, the quality of probabilistic projections of TFR for regions and other aggregates is improved.

  5. The Development Model Electronic Commerce of Regional Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Jun; Cai, Lecai; Li, Hongchan

    With the developing of the agricultural information, it is inevitable trend of the development of agricultural electronic commercial affairs. On the basis of existing study on the development application model of e-commerce, combined with the character of the agricultural information, compared with the developing model from the theory and reality, a new development model electronic commerce of regional agriculture base on the government is put up, and such key issues as problems of the security applications, payment mode, sharing mechanisms, and legal protection are analyzed, etc. The among coordination mechanism of the region is discussed on, it is significance for regulating the development of agricultural e-commerce and promoting the regional economical development.

  6. ANALISIS SEKTOR KEUANGAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI REGIONAL DI WILAYAH JAWA: PENDEKATAN MODEL LEVINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Utami Baroroh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study are to analyze the influence of financial development to economic regional growth on Jawa region, using panel of province-level data on Jawa region for the period 2005-2010. The analysis method that used on this paper is panel data regression. The empirical results shown that financial asset and financial credit had a positive influence to economic regional growth on Jawa region, meanwhile third party fund had negative influence to economic regional growth on Jawa region.  The other result shown that individual effect from fixed effect model showed that DKI Jakarta, Banten and East Jawa have potential as the centre of economic growthDOI: 10.15408/etk.v11i2.1892

  7. Ultradeep analysis of tumor heterogeneity in regions of somatic hypermutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, Janice M; Spence, John P; Abumoussa, Andrew; Burack, W Richard

    2015-01-01

    Tumor heterogeneity is of growing importance in the treatment of cancers. Mutational hot spots are prime locations for determining number and proportions of low variant allele frequency (VAF) tumor subclones by next generation sequencing. Low VAF detection is complicated by poor mapping efficiency in regions with high mutation density. Our Deep-Drilling with iterative Mapping (DDiMAP) method retains variant allele patterns to aid in single nucleotide variation detection and generation of additional reference alleles, with remapping increasing coverage of highly mutated regions to capture data critical to heterogeneity analysis and enhancing sensitivity. DDiMAP outputs variant patterns with frequencies, enabling rapid phylogenetic analysis of ongoing mutation.

  8. Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salciarini, D.; Godt, J.W.; Savage, W.Z.; Conversini, P.; Baum, R.L.; Michael, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.

  9. Modeling Employment on Regional Labor Markets(Through the Example of the Khabarovsk Territory of Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Valerievna Zikunova

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The disbalance of demand and supply on the labor market acquires special sense for remote and underpopulated settled lands. The lack of perspective estimations of the regional labor markets development leads to the outflow of human capital assets from regions, and their high concentration in central regions of the country. It results in the loss of competition effects on the labor market, aggravation of the mismatch of the demand and supply for labor resources according to the types of economic activity. Ultimately, the inertia policy in the area of planning regional employment can lead to the loss of skilled personnel and loss of effects related to regional specialization. The aim of this article is to substantiate the model to predict the number of the employed in the region. Firstly, the article generalizes regional and national tendencies of the labor market development. Secondly, based on the analysis of demographic and economic characteristics of the region, the model related to predicting the employment in the region is offered. Its quality is proved by subsequent approbation on the basis of real statistic data. The article displays the perspectives of applying such models in other regional economic systems taking into account their industry specialization.

  10. Introduction to special section: Regional Climate Modeling Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Mearns, Linda O.

    1999-03-01

    This paper provides an introduction to the special issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research on "New Developments and Applications With the NCAR Regional Climate Model (RegCM)." In the first part of the paper we revisit and discuss outstanding issues in regional climate modeling in view of the progress achieved in this area of research during the last decade. We discuss issues of simulation length, spin-up, model physics, domain and resolution, lateral boundary conditions, multiple and two way nesting, and variable resolution approaches. In the second part we introduce the papers included in this issue. Among the primary model developments that occurred in the last few years are inclusions of the radiative transfer package and cumulus convection scheme from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global model CCM3, a simplified explicit moisture scheme including direct interaction with cloud radiation, testing of a variable resolution model configuration, improvements in the coupled lake model, and interactive coupling with radiatively active atmospheric aerosols. The papers in the issue illustrate a wide range of applications over different regions, such as the United States, East Asia, central Asia, eastern Africa. The main model limitations and areas in need of improvement are indicated.

  11. Comparative analysis of hazardous household waste in two Mexican regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Otoniel Buenrostro; Ojeda-Benítez, Sara; Márquez-Benavides, Liliana

    2007-01-01

    Household hazardous waste (HHW) generation in two Mexican regions was examined, a northern region (bordering with the USA) and a central region. The aim of this work was to determine the dynamics of solid waste generation and to be able to compare the results of both regions, regarding consumption patterns and solid waste generation rates. In the northern region, household solid waste was analysed quantitatively. In order to perform this analysis, the population was categorized into three socioeconomic strata (lower, middle, upper). Waste characterization revealed the presence of products that give origin to household hazardous waste. In the northern region (Mexicali city), household hazardous waste comprised 3.7% of municipal solid waste, the largest categories in this fraction were home care products (29.2%), cleaning products (19.5%) and batteries and electronic equipment (15.7%). In the central region, HHW comprised 1.03% of municipal solid waste; the main categories in this fraction were represented by cleaning products (39%), self care products (27.3%), and insecticides (14.4%). In Mexicali, the socioeconomic study demonstrated that the production of HHW is independent of the income level. Furthermore, the composition of the solid waste stream in both regions suggested the influence of another set of variables such as local climate, migration patterns and marketing coverage. Further research is needed in order to establish the effect of low quantities of HHW upon the environment and public health.

  12. Evaluation of the Analysis Influence on Transport in Reanalysis Regional Water Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, M. G.; Chen, J.; Robertson, F. R.

    2011-01-01

    Regional water cycles of reanalyses do not follow theoretical assumptions applicable to pure simulated budgets. The data analysis changes the wind, temperature and moisture, perturbing the theoretical balance. Of course, the analysis is correcting the model forecast error, so that the state fields should be more aligned with observations. Recently, it has been reported that the moisture convergence over continental regions, even those with significant quantities of radiosonde profiles present, can produce long term values not consistent with theoretical bounds. Specifically, long averages over continents produce some regions of moisture divergence. This implies that the observational analysis leads to a source of water in the region. One such region is the Unite States Great Plains, which many radiosonde and lidar wind observations are assimilated. We will utilize a new ancillary data set from the MERRA reanalysis called the Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) which provides the assimilated observations on MERRA's native grid allowing more thorough consideration of their impact on regional and global climatology. Included with the GIO data are the observation minus forecast (OmF) and observation minus analysis (OmA). Using OmF and OmA, we can identify the bias of the analysis against each observing system and gain a better understanding of the observations that are controlling the regional analysis. In this study we will focus on the wind and moisture assimilation.

  13. SST Diurnal Variability: Regional Extent & Implications in Atmospheric Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna; Høyer, Jacob L.

    2013-01-01

    and quantify regional diurnal warming from the experimental MSG/SEVIRI hourly SST fields, for the period 2006-2012. ii) To investigate the impact of the increased SST temporal resolution in the atmospheric model WRF, in terms of modeled 10-m winds and surface heat fluxes. Withing this context, 3 main tasks...... regional diurnal warming over the SEVIRI disk, a SEVIRI derived reference field representative of the well mixed night-time conditions is required. Different methodologies are tested and the results are validated against SEVIRI pre-dawn SSTs and in situ data from moored and drifting buoys....

  14. Generation of Natural Runoff Monthly Series at Ungauged Sites Using a Regional Regressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Pumo

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Many hydrologic applications require reliable estimates of runoff in river basins to face the widespread lack of data, both in time and in space. A regional method for the reconstruction of monthly runoff series is here developed and applied to Sicily (Italy. A simple modeling structure is adopted, consisting of a regression-based rainfall–runoff model with four model parameters, calibrated through a two-step procedure. Monthly runoff estimates are based on precipitation, temperature, and exploiting the autocorrelation with runoff at the previous month. Model parameters are assessed by specific regional equations as a function of easily measurable physical and climate basin descriptors. The first calibration step is aimed at the identification of a set of parameters optimizing model performances at the level of single basin. Such “optimal” sets are used at the second step, part of a regional regression analysis, to establish the regional equations for model parameters assessment as a function of basin attributes. All the gauged watersheds across the region have been analyzed, selecting 53 basins for model calibration and using the other six basins exclusively for validation. Performances, quantitatively evaluated by different statistical indexes, demonstrate relevant model ability in reproducing the observed hydrological time-series at both the monthly and coarser time resolutions. The methodology, which is easily transferable to other arid and semi-arid areas, provides a reliable tool for filling/reconstructing runoff time series at any gauged or ungauged basin of a region.

  15. Pyrolysis Kinetic Modelling of Wheat Straw from the Pannonian Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Pešenjanski

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The pyrolysis/devolatilization is a basic step of thermochemical processes and requires fundamental characterization. In this paper, the kinetic model of pyrolysis is specified as a one-step global reaction. This type of reaction is used to describe the thermal degradation of wheat straw samples by measuring rates of mass loss of solid matter at a linear increase in temperature. The mentioned experiments were carried out using a derivatograph in an open-air environment. The influence of different factors was investigated, such as particle size, humidity levels, and the heating rate in the kinetics of devolatilization. As the measured values of mass loss and temperature functions transform in Arrhenius coordinates, the results are shown in the form of saddle curves. Such characteristics cannot be approximated with one equation in the form of Arrhenius law. For use in numerical applications, transformed functions can be approximated by linear regression for three separate intervals. Analysis of measurement resulting in granulation and moisture content variations shows that these factors have no significant influence. Tests of heating rate variations confirm the significance of this impact, especially in warmer regions. The influence of this factor should be more precisely investigated as a general variable, which should be the topic of further experiments.

  16. MODELS OF TOURIST DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borma Afrodita

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Third year PhD candidate at the University of Oradea, under the guidance of Professor Mrs. Alina Bădulescu in the doctoral research project entitled: "Doctoral studies and Ph.D. candidates for competitive research on a knowledge based society", a co-financed project by the European Social Fund through the Sectoral Operational Program for Human Resources Development 2007 - 2013, Priority Axis 1. "Education and training in support for growth and development of a knowledge based society" I chose to present this subject in order to demonstrate the connection that exists between tourism and regional development. Having as research topic "Tourism and development in the Euro regional context” I felt it would be appropriate to devote a subchapter in presenting the impact of tourism in regional development. Thus I have analysed a number of specialised papers found at national and international level in order to achieve a synthesis on the approached topic. Authors such as Williams and Shaw (1991, Sharma (2004, Keskin and Cansiz (2010 were concerned with presenting the positive aspects of tourism in regional development. Condes (2004 presents on one hand the secrets regarding success in matter of tourist development, and on the other side he presents the possible risks that follow the development of tourism in a country / region (Condes 2004. Following the gathered information we found that indeed tourism plays an important role in regional development. The used research methodology consisted in using specialised literature in order to identify some models that illustrate the potential success of tourism in regional development. The space-temporal development model of tourism proposed by Opperman (1993, although it was developed at national level represents a useful tool in illustrating the potential success of tourism in regional development. Miossec's model (Sharma 2004:300 describes the structural evolution of touristic regions in

  17. Predicting groundwater redox status on a regional scale using linear discriminant analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Close, M. E.; Abraham, P.; Humphries, B.; Lilburne, L.; Cuthill, T.; Wilson, S.

    2016-08-01

    Reducing conditions are necessary for denitrification, thus the groundwater redox status can be used to identify subsurface zones where potentially significant nitrate reduction can occur. Groundwater chemistry in two contrasting regions of New Zealand was classified with respect to redox status and related to mappable factors, such as geology, topography and soil characteristics using discriminant analysis. Redox assignment was carried out for water sampled from 568 and 2223 wells in the Waikato and Canterbury regions, respectively. For the Waikato region 64% of wells sampled indicated oxic conditions in the water; 18% indicated reduced conditions and 18% had attributes indicating both reducing and oxic conditions termed "mixed". In Canterbury 84% of wells indicated oxic conditions; 10% were mixed; and only 5% indicated reduced conditions. The analysis was performed over three different well depths, 100 m. For both regions, the percentage of oxidised groundwater decreased with increasing well depth. Linear discriminant analysis was used to develop models to differentiate between the three redox states. Models were derived for each depth and region using 67% of the data, and then subsequently validated on the remaining 33%. The average agreement between predicted and measured redox status was 63% and 70% for the Waikato and Canterbury regions, respectively. The models were incorporated into GIS and the prediction of redox status was extended over the whole region, excluding mountainous land. This knowledge improves spatial prediction of reduced groundwater zones, and therefore, when combined with groundwater flow paths, improves estimates of denitrification.

  18. Analysis of Business Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slavik Stefan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The term business model has been used in practice for few years, but companies create, define and innovate their models subconsciously from the start of business. Our paper is aimed to clear the theory about business model, hence definition and all the components that form each business. In the second part, we create an analytical tool and analyze the real business models in Slovakia and define the characteristics of each part of business model, i.e., customers, distribution, value, resources, activities, cost and revenue. In the last part of our paper, we discuss the most used characteristics, extremes, discrepancies and the most important facts which were detected in our research.

  19. Modeling drifting snow in Antarctica with a regional climate model: 1. Methods and model evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenaerts, J.T.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.; Déry, S. J.; van Meijgaard, E.; van de Berg, W.J.; Palm, S.P.; Sanz Rodrigo, J.

    2012-01-01

    To simulate the impact of drifting snow on the lower atmosphere, surface characteristics and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2.1/ANT) with horizontal resolution of 27 km is coupled to a drifting snow routine and forced by ERA-Interim fie

  20. Modeling drifting snow in Antarctica with a regional climate model: 1. Methods and model evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenaerts, J.T.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/314850163; van den Broeke, M.R.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073765643; Déry, S. J.; van Meijgaard, E.; van de Berg, W.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831611; Palm, S.P.; Sanz Rodrigo, J.

    2012-01-01

    To simulate the impact of drifting snow on the lower atmosphere, surface characteristics and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2.1/ANT) with horizontal resolution of 27 km is coupled to a drifting snow routine and forced by ERA-Interim fie

  1. Uncertainty Categorization, Modeling, and Management for Regional Water Supply Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K. M.; AlSaati, A.; Alhassan, A.

    2016-12-01

    Many water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from growing demands, variability in supply and a changing climate. Short-term variation in water availability and demand; long-term uncertainty in climate, groundwater storage, and sectoral competition for water; and varying stakeholder perspectives on the impacts of water shortages make it difficult to assess the necessity of expensive infrastructure investments. We categorize these uncertainties on two dimensions: whether they are the result of stochastic variation or epistemic uncertainty, and whether the uncertainties can be described probabilistically or are deep uncertainties whose likelihood is unknown. We develop a decision framework that combines simulation for probabilistic uncertainty, sensitivity analysis for deep uncertainty and Bayesian decision analysis for uncertainties that are reduced over time with additional information. We apply this framework to two contrasting case studies - drought preparedness in Melbourne, Australia and fossil groundwater depletion in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia - to assess the impacts of different types of uncertainty on infrastructure decisions. Melbourne's water supply system relies on surface water, which is impacted by natural variation in rainfall, and a market-based system for managing water rights. Our results show that small, flexible investment increases can mitigate shortage risk considerably at reduced cost. Riyadh, by contrast, relies primarily on desalination for municipal use and fossil groundwater for agriculture, and a centralized planner makes allocation decisions. Poor regional groundwater measurement makes it difficult to know when groundwater pumping will become uneconomical, resulting in epistemic uncertainty. However, collecting more data can reduce the uncertainty, suggesting the need for different uncertainty modeling and management strategies in Riyadh than in Melbourne. We will categorize the two systems and propose appropriate

  2. Long-wave forcing for regional atmospheric modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Storch, H. von; Langenberg, H.; Feser, F. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    1999-07-01

    A new method, named 'spectral nudging', of linking a regional model to the driving large-scale model simulated or analyzed by a global model is proposed and tested. Spectral nudging is based on the idea that regional-scale climate statistics are conditioned by the interplay between continental-scale atmospheric conditions and such regional features as marginal seas and mountain ranges. Following this 'downscaling' idea, the regional model is forced to satisfy not only boundary conditions, possibly in a boundary sponge region, but also large-scale flow conditions inside the integration area. We demonstrate that spectral nudging succeeds in keeping the simulated state close to the driving state at large scales, while generating smaller-scale features. We also show that the standard boundary forcing technique in current use allows the regional model to develop internal states conflicting with the large-scale state. It is concluded that spectral nudging may be seen as a suboptimal and indirect data assimilation technique. (orig.) [German] Eine neue Methode, genannt 'spektrales nudging', ein Regionalmodell an das durch ein Globalmodell simulierte grossskalige Antriebsfeld zu koppeln, wird vorgestellt und getestet. Das spektrale nudging basiert auf der Annahme, dass regionale Klimastatistik durch die Wechselwirkung zwischen dem kontinental-skaligen atmosphaerischen Zustand und regionalen Gegebenheiten, wie kleinere Seen und Gebirgszuege, bestimmt wird. Demnach muss das Regionalmodell nicht nur die Randbedingungen erfuellen, sondern auch die grossskaligen Zustaende innerhalb des Integrationsgebietes wiedergeben koennen. Wir zeigen, dass durch das spektrale nudging der grossskalige modellierte Zustand nahe an dem des Antriebsfeldes liegt, ohne die Modellierung regionaler Phaenomene zu beeintraechtigen. Ausserdem zeigen wir, dass das Regionalmodell durch die zur Zeit benutzte Antriebstechnik ueber den Modellrand interne Felder produzieren kann

  3. Survival analysis models and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Xian

    2012-01-01

    Survival analysis concerns sequential occurrences of events governed by probabilistic laws.  Recent decades have witnessed many applications of survival analysis in various disciplines. This book introduces both classic survival models and theories along with newly developed techniques. Readers will learn how to perform analysis of survival data by following numerous empirical illustrations in SAS. Survival Analysis: Models and Applications: Presents basic techniques before leading onto some of the most advanced topics in survival analysis.Assumes only a minimal knowledge of SAS whilst enablin

  4. Modeling the HIV epidemic in Novgorod region, Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azovtseva OV

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is designed for predicting the epidemic process and to improve preventive measures, clinical examination and treatment of HIV-infected patients at both the regional and national level. Morbidity indicators for the last 25 years were studied; prevailing ways of transmission, age pattern, and main causes of death among HIV-infected persons. A comparative analysis of morbidity was carried out. Microsoft Excel 2007 was used to analyse obtained data statistically. The significance of “clinical outcomes” was assessed by analysing confidence indexes of frequency distribution by the χ2 test with Fisher’s angular transformation or the Mantel-Haenszel test. The sequential recognition procedure by Bayes’ method was used as the basis for mathematical modelling. There are observed the declining role of transmission through injection and the increasing role of sexual transmission. HIV is diagnosed most frequently in young people aged 15–30. However, an increased morbidity rate of older people has been discovered during the last 2-3 years. The mathematical modelling of the epidemiological situation discovered that this infection spreading among the socially safe population against the backdrop of intensifying sexual transmission, accompanied by a rising female morbidity rate and the percentage of children born by HIV-infected mothers. Obtained results substantiate the need for a unified personalized registration system for HIV-infected individuals, which would include information about the scope and effectiveness of treatment, diagnostic, preventive, and rehabilitation measures that were taken when providing medical and social assistance to this category of patients.

  5. Impact of surface waves in a Regional Climate Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rutgersson, Anna; Sætra, Oyvind; Semedo, Alvaro

    2010-01-01

    A coupled regional atmosphere-wave model system is developed with the purpose of investigating the impact of climate changes on the wave field, as well as feed-back effects of the wave field on the atmospheric parameters. This study focuses on the effects of introducing a two-way atmosphere-wave...... coupling on the atmosphere as well as on wave parameters. The model components are the regional climate model RCA, and the third generation wave model WAM. Two different methods are used for the coupling, using the roughness length and only including the effect of growing sea, and using the wave age...... and introducing the reduction of roughness due to decaying sea (swell). Introducing a two-way coupling results in an altered frequency distribution of wind speed and wave heights. When only including growing sea the impact of waves on the long term mean atmospheric parameters is limited, inducing a reduction...

  6. Evaluation of a regional chemistry transport model using a newly developed regional OMI NO2 retrieval

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Kuhlmann

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we evaluate a high-resolution chemistry transport model (CTM (3 km x 3 km spatial resolution with the new Hong Kong (HK NO2 retrieval developed for the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI on-board the Aura satellite. The three-dimensional atmospheric chemistry was modelled in the Pearl River Delta (PRD region in southern China by the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ modelling system from October 2006 to January 2007. In the HK NO2 retrieval, tropospheric air mass factors (AMF were recalculated using high-resolution ancillary parameters of surface reflectance, NO2 profile shapes and aerosol profiles of which the latter two were taken from the CMAQ simulation. We also tested four different aerosol parametrizations. Ground level measurements by the PRD Regional Air Quality Monitoring (RAQM network were used as additional independent measurements. The HK NO2 retrieval increases the NO2 vertical column densities (VCD by (+31 ± 38 %, when compared to NASA's standard product (SP2, and reduces the mean bias (MB between satellite and ground measurements by 26 percentage points from −41 to −15 %. The correlation coefficient r is low for both satellite datasets (r = 0.35 due to the high spatial variability of NO2 concentrations. The correlation between CMAQ and the RAQM network is low (r ≈ 0.3 and the model underestimates the NO2 concentrations in the north-western model domain (Foshan and Guangzhou. We compared the CMAQ NO2 time series of the two main plumes with our regional OMI NO2 product. The model overestimates the NO2 VCDs by about 15 % in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, while the correlation coefficient is satisfactory (r = 0.56. In Foshan and Guangzhou, the correlation is low (r = 0.37 and the model underestimates the VCDs strongly (MB = −40 %. In addition, we estimated that the OMI VCDs are also underestimated by about 10 to 20 % in Foshan and Guangzhou because of the influence of the model parameters on the AMF

  7. Comparative Analysis of Splice Site Regions by Information Content

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    T. Shashi Rekha; Chanchal K. Mitra

    2006-01-01

    We have applied concepts from information theory for a comparative analysis of donor (gt) and acceptor (ag) splice site regions in the genes of five different organisms by calculating their mutual information content (relative entropy) over a selected block of nucleotides. A similar pattern that the information content decreases as the block size increases was observed for both regions in all the organisms studied. This result suggests that the information required for splicing might be contained in the consensus of ~6-8 nt at both regions. We assume from our study that even though the nucleotides are showing some degrees of conservation in the flanking regions of the splice sites, certain level of variability is still tolerated,which leads the splicing process to occur normally even if the extent of base pairing is not fully satisfied. We also suggest that this variability can be compensated by recognizing different splice sites with different spliceosomal factors.

  8. Analysis and characterization of security regions in power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-01-01

    Progress is repoted in a study performed to investigate the concept of security regions in the context of power system security analysis. The background and motivation for this research, the results of 2 years of work, and proposed future studies are discussed. (LCL)

  9. The development of an empirical model for regional public health reporting. A descriptive study in two Dutch pilot regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Bon-Martens, M J H; Van De Goor, L A M; Achterberg, P W; Van Oers, J A M

    2011-08-01

    To develop and describe an empirical model for regional public health reporting, based on the model and experience of the Dutch national Public Health Status and Forecasts (PHSF) as well as on relevant theories and literature. Three basic requirements were chosen in a preparatory feasibility study: the products to be developed, the project organization of the pilot study, and a regional elaboration of the conceptual model of the national PHSF. Subsequently, from November 2005 to June 2007, a regional PHSF was developed in two Dutch pilot regions, to serve as a base for the empirical model for regional public health reporting. The developed empirical regional PHSF model consists of different products for different purposes and target groups. Regional and Municipal Reports aim to underpin strategic regional and local public health policy. Websites contain up-to-date information, aiming to underpin tactical regional and local public health policy by providing building blocks for translating strategic policy priorities into concrete plans of action. Numerous stakeholders are involved in the development of a regional PHSF. The developed empirical process model for a regional PHSF connects to the theoretical framework in which interaction between researchers and policymakers is an important condition for the use of research data in public health policy. The empirical model for a regional PHSF can be characterized by its 1) products, 2) content and design, and 3) underlying process and organization. This empirical model can be seen as a first step in the direction of a generic model for regional public health reporting.

  10. Hydrological Modelling of Mountainous and Glacierised regions under Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious environmental threats that humanity has ever been confronted to. Hydrological models are vital tools to asses its impacts on the water cycle and water resources. The goal of this project is to evaluate and improve the capacity of the HBV model (Hydrologiska Byr°ans Vattenbalansavdelning) in simulating hydrological processes in mountainous and glacierised regions under both the present and future climate. This goal is achieved in two steps: (1) impleme...

  11. World Model in the European Gothic Novel and Regional Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Zvolimbovskaya

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with a specificity of the world model in the European Gothic novel and its regional context. The model of the world and the concept of a person are considered as the basic criteria of modern humanitarian knowledge. The object of study is presented by the novels of Charlotte Bronte “Jane Eyre”, Abraham «Bram» Stoker “Dracula” and others.

  12. Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, J.H.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.

    1996-01-01

    The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

  13. The human SOX18 gene: Expression analysis and characterization of its 5’ flanking region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Isidora

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to establish an adequate in vitro model system for studying transcriptional regulation of the human SOX18 gene. The paper presents an analysis of expression of this gene in cultured cell lines and characterization of its 5' flanking region. Using RT-PCR, Northern and Western blot analysis, we demonstrated SOX18 expression in HeLa cells, indicating that this cell line provides a suitable model system for studying transcriptional regulation of the given gene. We also cloned, sequenced and for the first time characterized the human SOX18 5’ flanking region. It is shown that the region 892 bp in size immediately upstream from the start codone harbors regulatory elements sufficient for transcription and represents an SOX18 promoter region.

  14. Tidal simulation using regional ocean modeling systems (ROMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaochun; Chao, Yi; Li, Zhijin; Dong, Changming; Farrara, John; McWilliams, James C.; Shum, C. K.; Wang, Yu; Matsumoto, Koji; Rosenfeld, Leslie K.; Paduan, Jeffrey D.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of our research is to test the capability of ROMS in simulating tides. The research also serves as a necessary exercise to implement tides in an operational ocean forecasting system. In this paper, we emphasize the validation of the model tide simulation. The characteristics and energetics of tides of the region will be reported in separate publications.

  15. Helicity of Solar Active Regions from a Dynamo Model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Piyali Chatterjee

    2006-06-01

    We calculate helicities of solar active regions based on the idea that poloidal flux lines get wrapped around a toroidal flux tube rising through the convection zone, thereby giving rise to the helicity. We use our solar dynamo model based on the Babcock–Leighton -effect to study how helicity varies with latitude and time.

  16. A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework ...

  17. Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob

    2010-01-01

    Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...

  18. A new viable region of the inert doublet model

    CERN Document Server

    Lopez-Honorez, Laura

    2010-01-01

    The inert doublet model, a minimal extension of the Standard Model by a second Higgs doublet, is one of the simplest and most attractive scenarios that can explain the dark matter. In this paper, we demonstrate the existence of a new viable region of the inert doublet model featuring dark matter masses between Mw and about 160 GeV. Along this previously overlooked region of the parameter space, the correct relic density is obtained thanks to cancellations between different diagrams contributing to dark matter annihilation into gauge bosons (W+W- and ZZ). First, we explain how these cancellations come about and show several examples illustrating the effect of the parameters of the model on the cancellations themselves and on the predicted relic density. Then, we perform a full scan of the new viable region and analyze it in detail by projecting it onto several two-dimensional planes. Finally, the prospects for the direct and the indirect detection of inert Higgs dark matter within this new viable region are st...

  19. Modeling of Regional Climate over Red Sea and Arabian Peninsula

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2011-04-09

    Observations, re-analyses, and climate model simulations show strong surface temperature trends in Middle East and Arabian Peninsula in the last 30 years. Trends are especially pronounced in summer exceeding +1K/decade. However, some regions, e.g., the So

  20. Multi-region Statistical Shape Model for Cochlear Implantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Romera, Jordi; Kjer, H. Martin; Piella, Gemma

    2016-01-01

    the best results. The complexity of a proper global model increases even more when the amount of data available is limited to a small number of datasets. Typically, the anatomical variability between structures is associated to the variability of their physiological regions. In this paper, a complete...

  1. Regional SAR Image Segmentation Based on Fuzzy Clustering with Gamma Mixture Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X. L.; Zhao, Q. H.; Li, Y.

    2017-09-01

    Most of stochastic based fuzzy clustering algorithms are pixel-based, which can not effectively overcome the inherent speckle noise in SAR images. In order to deal with the problem, a regional SAR image segmentation algorithm based on fuzzy clustering with Gamma mixture model is proposed in this paper. First, initialize some generating points randomly on the image, the image domain is divided into many sub-regions using Voronoi tessellation technique. Each sub-region is regarded as a homogeneous area in which the pixels share the same cluster label. Then, assume the probability of the pixel to be a Gamma mixture model with the parameters respecting to the cluster which the pixel belongs to. The negative logarithm of the probability represents the dissimilarity measure between the pixel and the cluster. The regional dissimilarity measure of one sub-region is defined as the sum of the measures of pixels in the region. Furthermore, the Markov Random Field (MRF) model is extended from pixels level to Voronoi sub-regions, and then the regional objective function is established under the framework of fuzzy clustering. The optimal segmentation results can be obtained by the solution of model parameters and generating points. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm can be proved by the qualitative and quantitative analysis from the segmentation results of the simulated and real SAR images.

  2. Modeling annual mallard production in the prairie-parkland region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, M.W.

    2000-01-01

    Biologists have proposed several environmental factors that might influence production of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) nesting in the prairie-parkland region of the United States and Canada. These factors include precipitation, cold spring temperatures, wetland abundance, and upland breeding habitat. I used long-term historical data sets of climate, wetland numbers, agricultural land use, and size of breeding mallard populations in multiple regression analyses to model annual indices of mallard production. Models were constructed at 2 scales: a continental scale that encompassed most of the mid-continental breeding range of mallards and a stratum-level scale that included 23 portions of that same breeding range. The production index at the continental scale was the estimated age ratio of mid-continental mallards in early fall; at the stratum scale my production index was the estimated number of broods of all duck species within an aerial survey stratum. Size of breeding mallard populations in May, and pond numbers in May and July, best modeled production at the continental scale. Variables that best modeled production at the stratum scale differed by region. Crop variables tended to appear more in models for western Canadian strata; pond variables predominated in models for United States strata; and spring temperature and pond variables dominated models for eastern Canadian strata. An index of cold spring temperatures appeared in 4 of 6 models for aspen parkland strata, and in only 1 of 11 models for strata dominated by prairie. Stratum-level models suggest that regional factors influencing mallard production are not evident at a larger scale. Testing these potential factors in a manipulative fashion would improve our understanding of mallard population dynamics, improving our ability to manage the mid-continental mallard population.

  3. Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Trends and periodicities of regional drought projections in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Vivek; Jain, Manoj Kumar

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is believed to be altering the hydrologic cycle of different regions worldwide. This may alter the occurrence and distribution of extreme events such as droughts and floods. India is one of the most drought affected country, it is therefore important to understand spatiotemporal variation of droughts in future due to climate change. In this paper, we have analyzed the spatiotemporal projections of droughts over India for 21st century using Global Climate Model (GCM) precipitation projections of ESM2G model under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) namely, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. K-means Clustering algorithm has been exploited to obtain homogeneous precipitation region in India for regional drought analysis. Further, temporal analysis of projected annual minimum SPI for year 2006 to 2100 has been performed for different homogeneous regions obtained using cluster analysis. Trend analysis of annual minimum SPI series has also been performed using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope method. Furthermore, periodicity in SPI series have been examined using wavelet periodogram analysis. Findings of this paper suggest that major drought events for Northeastern and Southern India are likely to occur in second half of the 21st century while for all other parts of India, most of the major drought events are expected in first half of the 21st century. Also, wavelet periodicity analysis indicates inter-annual periodicities of projected droughts between 3 to 9.5 years in different regions of India.

  4. National Geo-Database for Biofuel Simulations and Regional Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Zhang, Xuesong; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Manowitz, David H.

    2012-04-01

    The goal of this project undertaken by GLBRC (Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center) Area 4 (Sustainability) modelers is to develop a national capability to model feedstock supply, ethanol production, and biogeochemical impacts of cellulosic biofuels. The results of this project contribute to sustainability goals of the GLBRC; i.e. to contribute to developing a sustainable bioenergy economy: one that is profitable to farmers and refiners, acceptable to society, and environmentally sound. A sustainable bioenergy economy will also contribute, in a fundamental way, to meeting national objectives on energy security and climate mitigation. The specific objectives of this study are to: (1) develop a spatially explicit national geodatabase for conducting biofuel simulation studies; (2) model biomass productivity and associated environmental impacts of annual cellulosic feedstocks; (3) simulate production of perennial biomass feedstocks grown on marginal lands; and (4) locate possible sites for the establishment of cellulosic ethanol biorefineries. To address the first objective, we developed SENGBEM (Spatially Explicit National Geodatabase for Biofuel and Environmental Modeling), a 60-m resolution geodatabase of the conterminous USA containing data on: (1) climate, (2) soils, (3) topography, (4) hydrography, (5) land cover/ land use (LCLU), and (6) ancillary data (e.g., road networks, federal and state lands, national and state parks, etc.). A unique feature of SENGBEM is its 2008-2010 crop rotation data, a crucially important component for simulating productivity and biogeochemical cycles as well as land-use changes associated with biofuel cropping. We used the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model to simulate biomass productivity and environmental impacts of annual and perennial cellulosic feedstocks across much of the USA on both croplands and marginal lands. We used data from LTER and eddy-covariance experiments within the study region to test the

  5. Testing the ability of RIEMS2.0 (Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System) on regional climate simulation in East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, D.; Fu, C.; Yan, X.

    2010-12-01

    RIEMS1.0 (Regional Integrated Environmental Modeling System version 1.0) was developed by researchers from the START (Global change System for Analysis, Research, and Training) Regional Center for Temperate East Asia, IAP/CAS in 1998. The model was built on the thermodynamic frame of PSU/NCAR MM5V2, into which a land surface scheme (BATS1e) and radiative transfer scheme (the revised CCM3) are integrated. The model has been widely used in regional climate studies in the East Asia monsoon system and expresses excellent performance from RMIP (Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project). RIEMS2.0 is now being developed starting from RIEMS1.0 by the Key Laboratory of Regional Climate Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, IAP/CAS, and Nanjing University. The new version is built on the thermodynamic framework of nonhydrostatic approximation from MM5V3 with the same land surface model and radiation scheme as RIEMS1.0. To make it an integrated modeling system, the Princeton ocean mode (POM), Atmosphere-Vegetation interaction model (AVIM) and a chemical model are now being integrated. In order to test RIEMS2.0’s ability to simulate short-term climate, we perform ensemble simulations with different physics process schemes. The model will be used to perform ensemble simulations on two continuous extreme climate events, which is serve drought with high temperature in north China in the summer (June, July and August) of 1997 and serve flood in the Yangtze River valley in the summer of 1998. The results show that RIEMS2.0 can reproduce the spatial distribution of the precipitation and SAT from two continuous extreme climate events in the summer of 1997/1998, and disclose sub-regional characteristics. Though difference can be found among ensemble members, ensembles can decrease the model’s uncertainty and improve the simulation decision in a certain degree. In order to test RIEMS2.0’s ability to simulate long-term climate and climate change, we compare

  6. CMS Analysis School Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malik, S. [Nebraska U.; Shipsey, I. [Purdue U.; Cavanaugh, R. [Illinois U., Chicago; Bloom, K. [Nebraska U.; Chan, Kai-Feng [Taiwan, Natl. Taiwan U.; D' Hondt, J. [Vrije U., Brussels; Klima, B. [Fermilab; Narain, M. [Brown U.; Palla, F. [INFN, Pisa; Rolandi, G. [CERN; Schörner-Sadenius, T. [DESY

    2014-01-01

    To impart hands-on training in physics analysis, CMS experiment initiated the concept of CMS Data Analysis School (CMSDAS). It was born over three years ago at the LPC (LHC Physics Centre), Fermilab and is based on earlier workshops held at the LPC and CLEO Experiment. As CMS transitioned from construction to the data taking mode, the nature of earlier training also evolved to include more of analysis tools, software tutorials and physics analysis. This effort epitomized as CMSDAS has proven to be a key for the new and young physicists to jump start and contribute to the physics goals of CMS by looking for new physics with the collision data. With over 400 physicists trained in six CMSDAS around the globe, CMS is trying to engage the collaboration in its discovery potential and maximize physics output. As a bigger goal, CMS is striving to nurture and increase engagement of the myriad talents, in the development of physics, service, upgrade, education of those new to CMS and the career development of younger members. An extension of the concept to the dedicated software and hardware schools is also planned, keeping in mind the ensuing upgrade phase.

  7. A comparison of regional flood frequency analysis approaches in a simulation framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganora, D.; Laio, F.

    2016-07-01

    Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve at ungauged (or scarcely gauged) sites. Different RFA approaches exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest, but it is not clear in the literature if a specific method systematically outperforms the others. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison by building up a virtual environment based on synthetically generated data. The considered regional approaches include: (i) a unique regional curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model where homogeneous subregions are determined through cluster analysis; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially smooth estimation procedure where the parameters of the regional model vary continuously along the space. Virtual environments are generated considering different patterns of heterogeneity, including step change and smooth variations. If the region is heterogeneous, with the parent distribution changing continuously within the region, the spatially smooth regional approach outperforms the others, with overall errors 10-50% lower than the other methods. In the case of a step-change, the spatially smooth and clustering procedures perform similarly if the heterogeneity is moderate, while clustering procedures work better when the step-change is severe. To extend our findings, an extensive sensitivity analysis has been performed to investigate the effect of sample length, number of virtual stations, return period of the predicted quantile, variability of the scale parameter of the parent distribution, number of predictor variables and different parent distribution. Overall, the spatially smooth approach appears as the most robust approach as its performances are more stable across different patterns of heterogeneity, especially when short records are

  8. High resolution re-analysis for the Baltic Sea region during 1965-2005 period

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luhamaa, Andres; Maennik, Aarne [University of Tartu, Tartu (Estonia); Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Tallinn (Estonia); Kimmel, Kaarel; Room, Rein [University of Tartu, Tartu (Estonia)

    2011-02-15

    Regional reanalysis database BaltAn65+ comprising meteorological data for Baltic Sea region for the time period 1965-2005 is described. For data assimilation and hindcasts, the numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM 7.1.4 is applied, with 11 km horizontal and 60-layer vertical resolution. Reanalysis includes three-dimensional weather analysis data. Standard surface observations and meteorological soundings together with ship and buoy measurements from WMO observational network are used in analysis. Boundary fields are obtained from ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis. The BaltAn65+ can be considered as a regional refinement of ERA-40 for Baltic Sea region, providing the historical weather and climate data with enhanced spatial resolution, which is main motivation for creation of this novel reanalysis database. (orig.)

  9. Stochastic Earthquake Rupture Modeling Using Nonparametric Co-Regionalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyungbook; Song, Seok Goo

    2016-10-01

    Accurate predictions of the intensity and variability of ground motions are essential in simulation-based seismic hazard assessment. Advanced simulation-based ground motion prediction methods have been proposed to complement the empirical approach, which suffers from the lack of observed ground motion data, especially in the near-source region for large events. It is important to quantify the variability of the earthquake rupture process for future events and to produce a number of rupture scenario models to capture the variability in simulation-based ground motion predictions. In this study, we improved the previously developed stochastic earthquake rupture modeling method by applying the nonparametric co-regionalization, which was proposed in geostatistics, to the correlation models estimated from dynamically derived earthquake rupture models. The nonparametric approach adopted in this study is computationally efficient and, therefore, enables us to simulate numerous rupture scenarios, including large events (M > 7.0). It also gives us an opportunity to check the shape of true input correlation models in stochastic modeling after being deformed for permissibility. We expect that this type of modeling will improve our ability to simulate a wide range of rupture scenario models and thereby predict ground motions and perform seismic hazard assessment more accurately.

  10. Numerical modeling techniques for flood analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anees, Mohd Talha; Abdullah, K.; Nawawi, M. N. M.; Ab Rahman, Nik Norulaini Nik; Piah, Abd. Rahni Mt.; Zakaria, Nor Azazi; Syakir, M. I.; Mohd. Omar, A. K.

    2016-12-01

    Topographic and climatic changes are the main causes of abrupt flooding in tropical areas. It is the need to find out exact causes and effects of these changes. Numerical modeling techniques plays a vital role for such studies due to their use of hydrological parameters which are strongly linked with topographic changes. In this review, some of the widely used models utilizing hydrological and river modeling parameters and their estimation in data sparse region are discussed. Shortcomings of 1D and 2D numerical models and the possible improvements over these models through 3D modeling are also discussed. It is found that the HEC-RAS and FLO 2D model are best in terms of economical and accurate flood analysis for river and floodplain modeling respectively. Limitations of FLO 2D in floodplain modeling mainly such as floodplain elevation differences and its vertical roughness in grids were found which can be improve through 3D model. Therefore, 3D model was found to be more suitable than 1D and 2D models in terms of vertical accuracy in grid cells. It was also found that 3D models for open channel flows already developed recently but not for floodplain. Hence, it was suggested that a 3D model for floodplain should be developed by considering all hydrological and high resolution topographic parameter's models, discussed in this review, to enhance the findings of causes and effects of flooding.

  11. Multi-regional input-output analysis for China's regional CH4 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bo; Li, Jiashuo; Peng, Beihua

    2014-03-01

    China is the largest CH4 emitter in the world. Given the importance of CH4 in greenhouse gas emission inventories, the characteristics of China's CH4 emissions at different scales deserve to be fully understood. Presented in this paper is an interprovincial input-output embodiment analysis of China's regional CH4 emissions in 2007, based on the most recently available multi-regional input-output table, and relevant CH4 emissions data. The results show that the eastern, central and western areas contribute to 48.2%, 28.6%, and 23.3% of the national total embodied emissions, respectively. Guangdong has the highest level of embodied CH4 emissions among all of the 30 regions. The Agriculture sector produces the most embodied CH4 emissions in final demand, followed by the Construction, Food Production and Tobacco Processing, and Other Service Activities sectors. Significant net transfers of embodied CH4 emission flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Shanxi is the largest interregional exporter of embodied CH4 emissions. In contrast, Guangdong is the largest interregional importer. Energy activities, agricultural activities, and waste management comprise 65.6%, 30.7%, and 3.7% of the total embodied CH4 emissions in interregional trade, respectively. By using consumption-based accounting principles, the emission magnitudes, per capita emissions, and emission intensities of most eastern regions increase remarkably, while those of some central and western regions decrease largely. To achieve regional CH4 emission mitigation, comprehensive mitigation measures should be designed under consideration of regional transfer of emission responsibility.

  12. THE USE OF CLUSTER ANALYSIS TO EVALUATE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONS (EVIDENCE FROM THE YAROSLAVL REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera V. Zholudeva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the article the results of Cluster Analysis of the Central Federal District regions are presented. The use of cluster analysis methods for definition of the resources utilization degree and the improvement of socio-economic development of any region is considered. The article gives the index of socio-economic development of the Yaroslavl region.

  13. Regional scale analysis for the design of storage tanks for domestic rainwater harvesting systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campisano, A; Modica, C

    2012-01-01

    A regional scale analysis for the design of storage tanks for domestic rain water harvesting systems is presented. The analysis is based on the daily water balance simulation of the storage tank by the yield-after-spillage algorithm as tank release rule. Water balances are applied to 17 rainfall gauging stations in Sicily (Italy). Compared with literature existing methods, a novel dimensionless parameter is proposed to better describe the intra-annual character of the rainfall patterns. As a result, easy-to-use regional regressive models to evaluate the water saving performance and the overflow discharges from the tank are provided along with a stepwise procedure for practical application. The regional models demonstrate good fits between model predictions and simulated values of both water savings and overflows from the tank.

  14. Modelling cyclonic eddies in the Delagoa Bight region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossa, O.; Pous, S.; Penven, P.; Capet, X.; Reason, C. J. C.

    2016-05-01

    The objective of this study is to document and shed light on the circulation around the Delagoa Bight region in the southern Mozambique Channel using a realistic modelling approach. A simulation including mesoscale forcings at the boundaries of our regional configuration succeeds in reproducing the general circulation in the region as well as the existence of a semi-permanent cyclonic eddy, whose existence is attested by in situ measurements in the Bight. Characterised by a persistent local minimum in SSH located around 26°S-34°E, this cyclonic eddy termed herein the Delagoa Bight lee eddy occurs about 25% of the time with no clear seasonal preference. Poleward moving cyclones, mostly generated further north, occur another 25% of the time in the Bight area. A tracking method applied to eddies generated in Delagoa Bight using model outputs as well as AVISO data confirms the model realism and provides additional statistics. The diameter of the eddy core varies between 61 and 147 km and the average life time exceeds 20 days. Additional model analyses reveal the systematic presence of negative vorticity in the Bight that can organise and form a Delagoa Bight lee eddy depending on the intensity of an intermittent southward flow along the shore and the spatial distribution of surrounding mesoscale features. In addition, the model solution shows other cyclonic eddies generated near Inhambane and eventually travelling through the Bight. Their generation and pathways appears to be linked with large Mozambique Channel rings.

  15. Growth and convergence in a two-region model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Funke, Michael; Strulik, Holger

    2005-01-01

    The paper discusses the impact and implications of Korean unification by setting up a two-region endogenous growth model. The numerical solutions are based on the formal analytical model, and have been calibrated so that they reflect the observed features of the North and South Korean economies....... The numerical solutions provide evidence about the speed of convergence and the large amount of interregional transfers that are required to make the North Korean economy economically viable. We also model the impact of foreign aid, migration and borrowing abroad for the transition process...

  16. The estimated and look-ahead model of scientific and technical capacityof region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Vital'evna Zolotukhina

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the impact of scientific and technical capacity of Russian regions to the possibility of their sustainable development in the modern world. At the same time clarified the concept of «sustainable development», which in the extended treatment is disclosed in dynamic, static and efficiently-factorial aspects. The essential features of sustainable regional development (economic growth and high living standards, the effectiveness of the sectoral structure of economy, solidarity and partnership between the subjects of regional cooperation, coevolution, etc. within the framework of a comprehensive, integrative approach are identified.The algorithm of an indicative estimation of scientific and technical capacity of region for the purpose of research of its influence on sustainability of the social and economic development reveals; integrated indicators of a sustainable development and the scientific and technical capacity of the several Russian regions on the basis of computation of corresponding individual and private indicators are calculated. The choice of indicators due to the proposed theoretical and methodological approach to understanding the phenomena is under consideration. Generated by means of carrying out the correlation and regression analysis the econometric model allows to predict degree of stability of regional economy at escalating of separate components of scientific and technical capacity (in particular, its productive, human and financial components, identified in the analysis of the most important from the standpoint of sustainable development in the region. Results of practical application of model are approved on an example of regions of Privolzhsky Federal District

  17. Spatio-temporal analysis of regional PV generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nuño Martinez, Edgar; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) power is growing in importance worldwide and hence needs to be represented in operation and planning of power system. As opposed to traditional generation technologies, it is characterized by exhibiting both a high variability and a significant spatial dependence. This paper...... presents a fundamental analysis of regional solar generation time series, aiming to potentially facilitate large-scale solar integration. It will focus on characterizing the underlying dependence structure at the system level as well as describing both statistical and temporal properties of regional PV...

  18. Rethinking the psychogenic model of complex regional pain syndrome: somatoform disorders and complex regional pain syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Renee J; Chopra, Pradeep; Richardi, Toni

    2012-01-01

    Explaining the etiology of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) from the psychogenic model is exceedingly unsophisticated, because neurocognitive deficits, neuroanatomical abnormalities, and distortions in cognitive mapping are features of CRPS pathology. More importantly, many people who have developed CRPS have no history of mental illness. The psychogenic model offers comfort to physicians and mental health practitioners (MHPs) who have difficulty understanding pain maintained by newly uncovered neuro inflammatory processes. With increased education about CRPS through a biopsychosocial perspective, both physicians and MHPs can better diagnose, treat, and manage CRPS symptomatology.

  19. Rethinking the Psychogenic Model of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome: Somatoform Disorders and Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Renee J.; Chopra, Pradeep; Richardi, Toni

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Explaining the etiology of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) from the psychogenic model is exceedingly unsophisticated, because neurocognitive deficits, neuroanatomical abnormalities, and distortions in cognitive mapping are features of CRPS pathology. More importantly, many people who have developed CRPS have no history of mental illness. The psychogenic model offers comfort to physicians and mental health practitioners (MHPs) who have difficulty understanding pain maintained by newly uncovered neuro inflammatory processes. With increased education about CRPS through a biopsychosocial perspective, both physicians and MHPs can better diagnose, treat, and manage CRPS symptomatology. PMID:24223338

  20. INFORMATIONAL-ANALYTIC MODEL OF REGIONAL PROJECT PORTFOLIO FORMING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Osaulenko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the problem of regional project portfolio management in context of interaction of the regional development’s motive forces interaction. The features of innovation development on the regional level and their influence on the portfolio forming process considered. An existing approaches for portfolio modelling and formal criterion of the projects selection analyzed. At the same time the organization of key subjects of regional development interaction described. The aim of the article is investigation of informational aspects of project selection in process of the main development’s motive forces interaction and analytic model of portfolio filling validation. At that an inclination of stakeholders to reach a consensus taking into account. The Triple Helix conception using for concrete definition of the functions of the regional development’s motive forces. Asserted, that any component of innovation triad «science–business–government» can be an initiator of regional project, but it need to support two another components. Non-power interaction theory using for investigation of subjects interrelations in process of joint activity proposed. One of the key concept of the theory is information distance. It characterizes inclination of the parties to reach a consensus based on statistics. Projections of information distance onto directions of development axes using for more accurate definition of mutual positions in the all lines of development proposed. Another important parameter of the model which has an influence on the project support is awareness of stakeholders about it. Formalized description of project in the form of fast set of parameters proposes to use for determination of the awareness. The weighting coefficients for each parameter by expert way. Simultaneously the precision of the each parameter setting for all presented projects determines. On the base of appointed values of information distances and

  1. Fitting parametric models of diffusion MRI in regions of partial volume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton-Rosen, Zach; Cardoso, M. J.; Melbourne, Andrew; Orasanu, Eliza; Bainbridge, Alan; Kendall, Giles S.; Robertson, Nicola J.; Marlow, Neil; Ourselin, Sebastien

    2016-03-01

    Regional analysis is normally done by fitting models per voxel and then averaging over a region, accounting for partial volume (PV) only to some degree. In thin, folded regions such as the cerebral cortex, such methods do not work well, as the partial volume confounds parameter estimation. Instead, we propose to fit the models per region directly with explicit PV modeling. In this work we robustly estimate region-wise parameters whilst explicitly accounting for partial volume effects. We use a high-resolution segmentation from a T1 scan to assign each voxel in the diffusion image a probabilistic membership to each of k tissue classes. We rotate the DW signal at each voxel so that it aligns with the z-axis, then model the signal at each voxel as a linear superposition of a representative signal from each of the k tissue types. Fitting involves optimising these representative signals to best match the data, given the known probabilities of belonging to each tissue type that we obtained from the segmentation. We demonstrate this method improves parameter estimation in digital phantoms for the diffusion tensor (DT) and `Neurite Orientation Dispersion and Density Imaging' (NODDI) models. The method provides accurate parameter estimates even in regions where the normal approach fails completely, for example where partial volume is present in every voxel. Finally, we apply this model to brain data from preterm infants, where the thin, convoluted, maturing cortex necessitates such an approach.

  2. Regional model simulation of the hydrometeorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Tomassetti

    Full Text Available The drainage of the Fucino Lake of central Italy was completed in 1873, and this possibly caused significant climatic changes over the Fucino basin. In this paper we discuss a set of short-term triple-nested regional model simulations of the meteorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region. We find that the model simulates realistic lake-breeze circulations and their response to background winds. The simulations indicate that the lake affects the temperature of the surrounding basin in all seasons and precipitation in the cold season, when cyclonic perturbations move across the region. Some effects of the lake also extend over areas quite far from the Fucino basin. Our results support the hypothesis that the drainage of the lake might have significantly affected the climate of the lake basin. However, longer simulations and further development in some aspects of the model are needed, in order to provide a more statistically robust evaluation of the simulated lake-effects.

    Key words. Hydrology (anthropogenic effects – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology; mesoscale meteorology

  3. Climatic features of the Red Sea from a regional assimilative model

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

    2016-08-16

    The Advanced Research version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used to generate a downscaled, 10-km resolution regional climate dataset over the Red Sea and adjacent region. The model simulations are performed based on two, two-way nested domains of 30- and 10-km resolutions assimilating all conventional observations using a cyclic three-dimensional variational approach over an initial 12-h period. The improved initial conditions are then used to generate regional climate products for the following 24 h. We combined the resulting daily 24-h datasets to construct a 15-year Red Sea atmospheric downscaled product from 2000 to 2014. This 15-year downscaled dataset is evaluated via comparisons with various in situ and gridded datasets. Our analysis indicates that the assimilated model successfully reproduced the spatial and temporal variability of temperature, wind, rainfall, relative humidity and sea level pressure over the Red Sea region. The model also efficiently simulated the seasonal and monthly variability of wind patterns, the Red Sea Convergence Zone and associated rainfall. Our results suggest that dynamical downscaling and assimilation of available observations improve the representation of regional atmospheric features over the Red Sea compared to global analysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. We use the dataset to describe the atmospheric climatic conditions over the Red Sea region. © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society.

  4. A regional dynamic vegetation-climate model for Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snell, R. S.; Cowling, S. A.; Smith, B.

    2009-12-01

    Global vegetation models simulate the distribution of vegetation as a function of climate. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are also able to simulate the vegetation shifts in response to climate change, which makes them particularly useful for addressing questions about past and future climate scenarios. However, DGVMs have been criticized for using generic plant functional types (PFTs) and running the models at a coarse grid cell resolution. Regional dynamic vegetation models are able to simulate important landscape variation, since they use a finer resolution and specific PFTs for their region. Regional studies have typically focused on boreal or temperate ecosystems in North America and Europe. We will be presenting the results of applying a dynamic regional vegetation-climate model (LPJ-GUESS) for Central America. Initially, the model was run with the described global PFTs. However, several biomes were very poorly represented. Two PFTs were added: a Tropical Needleleaf Evergreen Tree to improve the simulation of the Mixed Pine-Oak biome, and a Desert Shrub to capture the Xeric Shrublands. The overall distribution of biomes was visually similar, however the Kappa statistic indicated a poor agreement with the potential biome map (overall Kappa = 0.301). The Kappa statistic did improve as we aggregated cell sizes and simplified the biomes (overall Kappa = 0.728). Compared to remote sensing data, the model showed a strong correlation with total LAI (r = 0.75). The poor Kappa statistic is likely due to a combination of factors. The way in which biomes are defined by the author can have a large influence on the level of agreement between simulated and potential vegetation. The Kappa statistic is also limited to comparing individual grid cells and thus, cannot detect overall patterns. Examining those areas which are poorly represented will help to identify future work and improve the representation of vegetation in these ecological models. In particular, the

  5. An assessment of precipitation and surface air temperature over China by regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xueyuan; Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu

    2016-12-01

    An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interannual variability, linear trends, and extremes are examined, with focus on precipitation and near surface air temperature. The models are able to reproduce the basic features of the observed summer mean precipitation and temperature over China and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. Overall, the model performance is better for temperature than that of precipitation. The models reasonably grasp the major anomalies and standard deviations over China and the five subregions studied. The models generally reproduce the spatial pattern of high interannual variability over wet regions, and low variability over the dry regions. The models also capture well the variable temperature gradient increase to the north by latitude. Both the observed and simulated linear trend of precipitation shows a drying tendency over the Yangtze River Basin and wetting over South China. The models capture well the relatively small temperature trends in large areas of China. The models reasonably simulate the characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of heavy rain days and heavy precipitation fraction. Most of the models also performed well in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China.

  6. Bayesian WLS/GLS regression for regional skewness analysis for regions with large crest stage gage networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veilleux, Andrea G.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Eash, David A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper summarizes methodological advances in regional log-space skewness analyses that support flood-frequency analysis with the log Pearson Type III (LP3) distribution. A Bayesian Weighted Least Squares/Generalized Least Squares (B-WLS/B-GLS) methodology that relates observed skewness coefficient estimators to basin characteristics in conjunction with diagnostic statistics represents an extension of the previously developed B-GLS methodology. B-WLS/B-GLS has been shown to be effective in two California studies. B-WLS/B-GLS uses B-WLS to generate stable estimators of model parameters and B-GLS to estimate the precision of those B-WLS regression parameters, as well as the precision of the model. The study described here employs this methodology to develop a regional skewness model for the State of Iowa. To provide cost effective peak-flow data for smaller drainage basins in Iowa, the U.S. Geological Survey operates a large network of crest stage gages (CSGs) that only record flow values above an identified recording threshold (thus producing a censored data record). CSGs are different from continuous-record gages, which record almost all flow values and have been used in previous B-GLS and B-WLS/B-GLS regional skewness studies. The complexity of analyzing a large CSG network is addressed by using the B-WLS/B-GLS framework along with the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA). Because EMA allows for the censoring of low outliers, as well as the use of estimated interval discharges for missing, censored, and historic data, it complicates the calculations of effective record length (and effective concurrent record length) used to describe the precision of sample estimators because the peak discharges are no longer solely represented by single values. Thus new record length calculations were developed. The regional skewness analysis for the State of Iowa illustrates the value of the new B-WLS/BGLS methodology with these new extensions.

  7. Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shea, J. M.; Immerzeel, W. W.; Wagnon, P.; Vincent, C.; Bajracharya, S.

    2015-05-01

    In this study, we apply a glacier mass balance and ice redistribution model to examine the sensitivity of glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal to climate change. High-resolution temperature and precipitation fields derived from gridded station data, and bias-corrected with independent station observations, are used to drive the historical model from 1961 to 2007. The model is calibrated against geodetically derived estimates of net glacier mass change from 1992 to 2008, termini position of four large glaciers at the end of the calibration period, average velocities observed on selected debris-covered glaciers, and total glacierized area. We integrate field-based observations of glacier mass balance and ice thickness with remotely sensed observations of decadal glacier change to validate the model. Between 1961 and 2007, the mean modelled volume change over the Dudh Koshi basin is -6.4 ± 1.5 km3, a decrease of 15.6% from the original estimated ice volume in 1961. Modelled glacier area change between 1961 and 2007 is -101.0 ± 11.4 km2, a decrease of approximately 20% from the initial extent. The modelled glacier sensitivity to future climate change is high. Application of temperature and precipitation anomalies from warm/dry and wet/cold end-members of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 ensemble results in sustained mass loss from glaciers in the Everest region through the 21st century.

  8. Regional industrial structure analysis based on weighted influence coefficient model: A case of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China%基于加权影响力系数模型的区域产业结构分析——以新疆为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张文彪; 杨德刚; 刘云同; 张新焕

    2013-01-01

    Traditional industrial structure analysis usually regards influence coefficient as a positive factor in choice of leading industry. However for industrial sectors in a recession, higher influence coefficient often means severe obstruction to the development of regional economy and awkward social problem. Moreover influence coefficient could not measure practical impact of a certain industry accurately due to the neglecting of scale of industry. Thus the factor of influence coefficient should be treated cautiously. New method is discussed to weight influence coefficient by proportion of added value of industrial sector in regional economy by which actual influence of industry on total economy could be measured more accurately. Base on it a modeling is introduced to analyze each sector of regional industry combined by both weighed influence coefficients and speed of development with the method of quadrants. Thus the modeling could measure the impact of both influence and development rate of industries. A case study of Xinjiang Autonomous Uygur Region is taken using 42 sector input-output table of Xinjiang. Results show that 5 industrial sectors including Extraction of Petroleum and Natural Gas and Raw Chemical Material and Chemical Products are high influence-high growth industries. These sectors have stronger driving effects to regional economy. 4 industrial sectors including agriculture and construction are high influence-low growth industries. These sectors have severe obstruction to regional economy and likely to cause series of social-economic problems. 12 industrial sectors including Manufacture of Telecom Equipment, Computer and Other Electronic Equipment are low influence-high growth industries. These industries are expected to become new leading industries. The new modeling of industrial analysis overcomes disadvantages of traditional methods of influence coefficients. The application in industrial instruction of Xinjiang gives conceive conclusions and

  9. Simulating cold-region hydrology in an intensively drained agricultural watershed in Manitoba, Canada, using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordeiro, Marcos R. C.; Wilson, Henry F.; Vanrobaeys, Jason; Pomeroy, John W.; Fang, Xing; The Red-Assiniboine Project Biophysical Modelling Team

    2017-07-01

    Etrophication and flooding are perennial problems in agricultural watersheds of the northern Great Plains. A high proportion of annual runoff and nutrient transport occurs with snowmelt in this region. Extensive surface drainage modification, frozen soils, and frequent backwater or ice-damming impacts on flow measurement represent unique challenges to accurately modelling watershed-scale hydrological processes. A physically based, non-calibrated model created using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) was parameterized to simulate hydrological processes within a low slope, clay soil, and intensively surface drained agricultural watershed. These characteristics are common to most tributaries of the Red River of the north. Analysis of the observed water level records for the study watershed (La Salle River) indicates that ice cover and backwater issues at time of peak flow may impact the accuracy of both modelled and measured streamflows, highlighting the value of evaluating a non-calibrated model in this environment. Simulations best matched the streamflow record in years when peak and annual discharges were equal to or above the medians of 6.7 m3 s-1 and 1.25 × 107 m3, respectively, with an average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.76. Simulation of low-flow years (below the medians) was more challenging (average NSE stream discharge generation.

  10. Regionalization parameters of conceptual rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osuch, M.

    2003-04-01

    Main goal of this study was to develop techniques for the a priori estimation parameters of hydrological model. Conceptual hydrological model CLIRUN was applied to around 50 catchment in Poland. The size of catchments range from 1 000 to 100 000 km2. The model was calibrated for a number of gauged catchments with different catchment characteristics. The parameters of model were related to different climatic and physical catchment characteristics (topography, land use, vegetation and soil type). The relationships were tested by comparing observed and simulated runoff series from the gauged catchment that were not used in the calibration. The model performance using regional parameters was promising for most of the calibration and validation catchments.

  11. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    The purpose of the project was to conduct model simulations for past and future climate change with respect to the proposed Yucca Mtn. repository. The authors report on three main topics, one of which is boundary conditions for paleo-hindcast studies. These conditions are necessary for the conduction of three to four model simulations. The boundary conditions have been prepared for future runs. The second topic is (a) comparing the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with observations and other GCMs; and (b) development of a better precipitation data base for the Yucca Mtn. region for comparisons with models. These tasks have been completed. The third topic is preliminary assessments of future climate change. Energy balance model (EBM) simulations suggest that the greenhouse effect will likely dominate climate change at Yucca Mtn. for the next 10,000 years. The EBM study should improve rational choice of GCM CO{sub 2} scenarios for future climate change.

  12. STATISTICAL GROWTH MODELING OF LONGITUDINAL DT-MRI FOR REGIONAL CHARACTERIZATION OF EARLY BRAIN DEVELOPMENT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi, Neda; Prastawa, Marcel; Fletcher, P Thomas; Gilmore, John H; Lin, Weili; Gerig, Guido

    2012-01-01

    A population growth model that represents the growth trajectories of individual subjects is critical to study and understand neurodevelopment. This paper presents a framework for jointly estimating and modeling individual and population growth trajectories, and determining significant regional differences in growth pattern characteristics applied to longitudinal neuroimaging data. We use non-linear mixed effect modeling where temporal change is modeled by the Gompertz function. The Gompertz function uses intuitive parameters related to delay, rate of change, and expected asymptotic value; all descriptive measures which can answer clinical questions related to growth. Our proposed framework combines nonlinear modeling of individual trajectories, population analysis, and testing for regional differences. We apply this framework to the study of early maturation in white matter regions as measured with diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Regional differences between anatomical regions of interest that are known to mature differently are analyzed and quantified. Experiments with image data from a large ongoing clinical study show that our framework provides descriptive, quantitative information on growth trajectories that can be directly interpreted by clinicians. To our knowledge, this is the first longitudinal analysis of growth functions to explain the trajectory of early brain maturation as it is represented in DTI.

  13. Global-scale regionalization of hydrologic model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Hylke E.; van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; de Roo, Ad; Miralles, Diego G.; McVicar, Tim R.; Schellekens, Jaap; Bruijnzeel, L. Adrian

    2016-05-01

    Current state-of-the-art models typically applied at continental to global scales (hereafter called macroscale) tend to use a priori parameters, resulting in suboptimal streamflow (Q) simulation. For the first time, a scheme for regionalization of model parameters at the global scale was developed. We used data from a diverse set of 1787 small-to-medium sized catchments (10-10,000 km2) and the simple conceptual HBV model to set up and test the scheme. Each catchment was calibrated against observed daily Q, after which 674 catchments with high calibration and validation scores, and thus presumably good-quality observed Q and forcing data, were selected to serve as donor catchments. The calibrated parameter sets for the donors were subsequently transferred to 0.5° grid cells with similar climatic and physiographic characteristics, resulting in parameter maps for HBV with global coverage. For each grid cell, we used the 10 most similar donor catchments, rather than the single most similar donor, and averaged the resulting simulated Q, which enhanced model performance. The 1113 catchments not used as donors were used to independently evaluate the scheme. The regionalized parameters outperformed spatially uniform (i.e., averaged calibrated) parameters for 79% of the evaluation catchments. Substantial improvements were evident for all major Köppen-Geiger climate types and even for evaluation catchments > 5000 km distant from the donors. The median improvement was about half of the performance increase achieved through calibration. HBV with regionalized parameters outperformed nine state-of-the-art macroscale models, suggesting these might also benefit from the new regionalization scheme. The produced HBV parameter maps including ancillary data are available via www.gloh2o.org.

  14. Multiscale Signal Analysis and Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Zayed, Ahmed

    2013-01-01

    Multiscale Signal Analysis and Modeling presents recent advances in multiscale analysis and modeling using wavelets and other systems. This book also presents applications in digital signal processing using sampling theory and techniques from various function spaces, filter design, feature extraction and classification, signal and image representation/transmission, coding, nonparametric statistical signal processing, and statistical learning theory. This book also: Discusses recently developed signal modeling techniques, such as the multiscale method for complex time series modeling, multiscale positive density estimations, Bayesian Shrinkage Strategies, and algorithms for data adaptive statistics Introduces new sampling algorithms for multidimensional signal processing Provides comprehensive coverage of wavelets with presentations on waveform design and modeling, wavelet analysis of ECG signals and wavelet filters Reviews features extraction and classification algorithms for multiscale signal and image proce...

  15. Statistical Models for Solar Flare Interval Distribution in Individual Active Regions

    CERN Document Server

    Kubo, Yuki

    2008-01-01

    This article discusses statistical models for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. We analyzed solar flare data in 55 active regions that are listed in the GOES soft X-ray flare catalog. We discuss some problems with a conventional procedure to derive probability density functions from any data set and propose a new procedure, which uses the maximum likelihood method and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to objectively compare some competing probability density functions. We found that lognormal and inverse Gaussian models are more likely models than the exponential model for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. The results suggest that solar flares do not occur randomly in time; rather, solar flare intervals appear to be regulated by solar flare mechanisms. We briefly mention a probabilistic solar flare forecasting method as an application of a solar flare interval distribution analysis.

  16. ROCK PROPERTIES MODEL ANALYSIS MODEL REPORT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clinton Lum

    2002-02-04

    The purpose of this Analysis and Model Report (AMR) is to document Rock Properties Model (RPM) 3.1 with regard to input data, model methods, assumptions, uncertainties and limitations of model results, and qualification status of the model. The report also documents the differences between the current and previous versions and validation of the model. The rock properties models are intended principally for use as input to numerical physical-process modeling, such as of ground-water flow and/or radionuclide transport. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. This work was conducted in accordance with the following planning documents: WA-0344, ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1998'' (SNL 1997, WA-0358), ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1999'' (SNL 1999), and the technical development plan, Rock Properties Model Version 3.1, (CRWMS M&O 1999c). The Interim Change Notice (ICNs), ICN 02 and ICN 03, of this AMR were prepared as part of activities being conducted under the Technical Work Plan, TWP-NBS-GS-000003, ''Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model, Process Model Report, Revision 01'' (CRWMS M&O 2000b). The purpose of ICN 03 is to record changes in data input status due to data qualification and verification activities. These work plans describe the scope, objectives, tasks, methodology, and implementing procedures for model construction. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The work scope for this activity consists of the following: (1) Conversion of the input data (laboratory measured porosity data, x-ray diffraction mineralogy, petrophysical calculations of bound water, and petrophysical calculations of porosity) for each borehole into stratigraphic coordinates; (2) Re-sampling and merging of data sets; (3

  17. Matrix Representation of the Kaliningrad Regional Accounts System: Experimental Development and Modelling Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soldatova S.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses the task of creating a regional Social Accounting Matrix (SAM in the Kaliningrad region. Analyzing the behavior of economic systems of national and sub-national levels in the changing environment is one of the main objectives of macroeconomic research. Matrices are used in examining the flow of financial resources, which makes it possible to conduct a comprehensive analysis of commodity and cash flows at the regional level. The study identifies key data sources for matrix development and presents its main results: the data sources for the accounts development and filling the social accounting matrix are identified, regional accounts consolidated, the structure of regional matrix devised, and the multiplier of the regional social accounting matrix calculated. An important aspect of this approach is the set target, which determines the composition of matrix accounts representing different aspects of regional performance. The calculated multiplier suggests the possibility of modelling of a socioeconomic system for the region using a social accounting matrix. The regional modelling approach ensures the matrix compliance with the methodological requirements of the national system.

  18. Matrix Representation of the Kaliningrad Regional Accounts System: Experimental Development and Modelling Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soldatova S.

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses the task of creating a regional Social Accounting Matrix (SAM in the Kaliningrad region. Analyzing the behavior of economic systems of national and sub-national levels in the changing environment is one of the main objectives of macroeconomic research. Matrices are used in examining the flow of financial resources, which makes it possible to conduct a comprehensive analysis of commodity and cash flows at the regional level. The study identifies key data sources for matrix development and presents its main results: the data sources for the accounts development and filling the social accounting matrix are identified, regional accounts consolidated, the structure of regional matrix devised, and the multiplier of the regional social accounting matrix calculated. An important aspect of this approach is the set target, which determines the composition of matrix accounts representing different aspects of regional performance. The calculated multiplier suggests the possibility of modelling of a socioeconomic system for the region using a social accounting matrix. The regional modelling approach ensures the matrix compliance with the methodological requirements of the national system

  19. Matrix Representation of the Kaliningrad Regional Accounts System: Experimental Development and Modelling Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soldatova Svetlana

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses the task of creating a regional Social Accounting Matrix (SAM in the Kaliningrad region. Analyzing the behavior of economic systems of national and sub-national levels in the changing environment is one of the main objectives of macroeconomic research. Matrices are used in examining the flow of financial resources, which makes it possible to conduct a comprehensive analysis of commodity and cash flows at the regional level. The study identifies key data sources for matrix development and presents its main results: the data sources for the accounts development and filling the social accounting matrix are identified, regional accounts consolidated, the structure of regional matrix devised, and the multiplier of the regional social accounting matrix calculated. An important aspect of this approach is the set target, which determines the composition of matrix accounts representing different aspects of regional performance. The calculated multiplier suggests the possibility of modelling of a socioeconomic system for the region using a social accounting matrix. The regional modelling approach ensures the matrix compliance with the methodological requirements of the national system

  20. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  1. Active region upflows: 2. Data driven MHD modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Galsgaard, K; Vanninathan, K; Huang, Z; Presmann, M

    2015-01-01

    Context. Observations of many active regions show a slow systematic outflow/upflow from their edges lasting from hours to days. At present no physical explanation has been proven, while several suggestions have been put forward. Aims. This paper investigates one possible method for maintaining these upflows assuming that convective motions drive the magnetic field to initiate them through magnetic reconnection. Methods. We use Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) data to provide an initial potential three dimensional magnetic field of the active region NOAA 11123 on 2010 November 13 where the characteristic upflow velocities are observed. A simple one-dimensional hydrostatic atmospheric model covering the region from the photosphere to the corona is derived. Local Correlation Tracking of the magnetic features in the HMI data is used to derive a proxy for the time dependent velocity field. The time dependent evolution of the system is solved using a resistive three-dimensional MagnetoHydro-Dynamic code. Resu...

  2. Parallel Computation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, P; Song, Y T; Chao, Y; Zhang, H

    2005-04-05

    The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) is a regional ocean general circulation modeling system solving the free surface, hydrostatic, primitive equations over varying topography. It is free software distributed world-wide for studying both complex coastal ocean problems and the basin-to-global scale ocean circulation. The original ROMS code could only be run on shared-memory systems. With the increasing need to simulate larger model domains with finer resolutions and on a variety of computer platforms, there is a need in the ocean-modeling community to have a ROMS code that can be run on any parallel computer ranging from 10 to hundreds of processors. Recently, we have explored parallelization for ROMS using the MPI programming model. In this paper, an efficient parallelization strategy for such a large-scale scientific software package, based on an existing shared-memory computing model, is presented. In addition, scientific applications and data-performance issues on a couple of SGI systems, including Columbia, the world's third-fastest supercomputer, are discussed.

  3. Modeling the pelvic region for non-invasive pelvic intraoperative neuromonitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moszkowski Tomasz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Finite element analysis (FEA of electric current distribution in the pelvis minor may help to assess the usability of non-invasive surface stimulation for continuous pelvic intraoperative neuromonitoring. FEA requires generation of quality volumetric tetrahedral mesh geometry. This study proposes the generation of a suitable mesh based on MRI data. The resulting volumetric mesh models the autonomous nerve structures at risk during total mesorectal excision. The model also contains the bone, cartilage, fat, skin, muscle tissues of the pelvic region, and a set of electrodes for surface stimulation. The model is ready for finite element analysis of the discrete Maxwell’s equations.

  4. Identification of Homogeneous Hydrological Regions through Multivariate Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvarez-Olguín G.

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological regionalization is used to transfer information from gauged catchments to ungauged river basins. However, to obtain reliable results, the basins involved must have a similar hydrological behavior. The objective of this research was to identify hydrologically homogeneous regions in the Mixteca Oaxaqueña and surrounding areas. The area of study included 17 basins for which 20 climate and physiographic variables potentially useful in the prediction of flow were quantified. The applications of multivariate statistics techniques allowed us to identify three groups of basins hydrologically associated. A regional model was obtained to predict mean annual fl ow, which determined that the best predictive variables are the area and the average annual precipitation.

  5. Regional Ionospheric Modelling for Single-Frequency Users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisits, Janina; Joldzic, Nina; Weber, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Ionospheric signal delays are a main error source in GNSS-based positioning. Thus, single-frequency receivers, which are frequently used nowadays, require additional ionospheric information to mitigate these effects. Within the Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG) project Regiomontan (Regional Ionospheric Modelling for Single-Frequency Users) a new and as realistic as possible model is used to obtain precise GNSS ionospheric signal delays. These delays will be provided to single-frequency users to significantly increase positioning accuracy. The computational basis is the Thin-Shell Model. For regional modelling a thin electron layer of the underlying model is approximated by a Taylor series up to degree two. The network used includes 22 GNSS Reference Stations in Austria and nearby. First results were calculated from smoothed code observations by forming the geometry-free linear combination. Satellite and station DCBs were applied. In a least squares adjustment the model parameters, consisting of the VTEC0 at the origin of the investigated area, as well as the first and the second derivatives of the electron content in longitude and latitude, were obtained with a temporal resolution of 1 hour. The height of the layer was kept fixed. The formal errors of the model parameters suggest an accuracy of the VTEC slightly better than 1TECU for a user location within Austria. In a further step, the model parameters were derived from sole phase observations by using a levelling approach to mitigate common range biases. The formal errors of this model approach suggest an accuracy of about a few tenths of a TECU. For validation, the Regiomontan VTEC was compared to IGS TEC maps depicting a very good agreement. Further, a comparison of pseudoranges has been performed to calculate the 'true' error by forming the ionosphere-free linear combination on the one hand, and by applying the Regiomontan model to L1 pseudoranges on the other hand. The resulting differences are mostly

  6. Regional kinematic models for the development of the Afar depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redfield, T. F.; Wheeler, W. H.; Often, M.

    2003-04-01

    Few reconstructions of the Afar rift combine plate kinematics with analyses of the rift basin evolution. The Afar rift is a highly-extended region of continental to transitional oceanic crust lying at the junction of the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Ethiopian rifts. Here, we present a new Afar reconstruction taking into account plate kinematics, crustal thinning and magmatic construction. We use a regional plate reconstruction incorporating Nubia, Arabia, Somalia and Danakil to constrain the regional-scale extension and subsidence of the rift and relative movement of Danakil. The plate model is temporally and spatially well constrained at the onset of rifting (ca. 20 Ma) and from sea-floor spreading anomalies in the Red Sea (ca. 6 Ma-present) and Gulf of Aden (ca. 10 Ma-present). The Red Sea pre-rift fit is constrained by piercing points along the Red Sea margins (Sultan et al. 1993). We model the Late Oligocene to present-day evolution of the Afar crust by volume balance using a crustal model based on published topographic and depth-to-Moho interpretations as well as volume estimates of extrusive and sedimentary rocks. Errors stemming from plate boundary uncertainties are small in relation to the reconstructed volume. We partition Afar magmatism into pre-extensional and syn-extensional volumes. From thermal modeling and flexural considerations we infer that the regional-scale subsidence of the Afar depression was virtually complete by Mid Pliocene time. Our model supports the interpretation that the escarpments bounding the Afar Depression achieved nearly their present height (ca. 3 km) by the Late Miocene. Erosional considerations suggest the Late Miocene escarpments were steeper than they are today. Our model does not support the interpretation found in the paleo-anthropological literature that Late Miocene and Pliocene vertical movements were sufficiently large (ca. 2 km) to cause small fault blocks such as Hadar to migrate through climatic temperature zones

  7. Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adloff, Fanny; Jordà, Gabriel; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Arsouze, Thomas; Meyssignac, Benoit; Li, Laurent; Planton, Serge

    2017-08-01

    For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not

  8. Microfinance around the world – regional SWOT analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Harmincova, Zuzana; Karel JANDA

    2014-01-01

    The paper focuses on comparison of the functioning of microfinance in various developing regions of the world, as well as on the analysis of the overall functioning, effectiveness, strengths and weaknesses, potential threats and opportunities in the microfinance markets. The conclusion offers several possibilities and insights on how microfinance could be more efficient in financial terms. The paper also presents a brief evaluation of the benefits of microfinance and based on its findings pro...

  9. An Analysis of Japanese Hotel Plan Availability ---Regionality and Seasonality---

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, M.; Sato, A.

    This paper investigates regionality and seasonality of room planavailability in Japan. We employ the singular spectrum analysis to the daily plan availability and extract the trends. We examine the coefficient of a linear relation between a normalized trend at each prefecture and a normalized trend of the whole of Japan. It is concluded that the coefficients, with respect to the four seasons, characterize properties of the prefectures.

  10. Climate-aerosol interactions over the Mediterranean region: a regional coupled modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabat, Pierre; Somot, Samuel; Mallet, Marc

    2015-04-01

    The Mediterranean basin is affected by numerous and various aerosols which have a high spatio-temporal variability. These aerosols directly interact with solar and thermal radiation, and indirectly with clouds and atmospheric dynamics. Therefore they can have an important impact on the regional climate. This work, located at the boundary between the ChArMEx and HyMeX programs, considers a coupled regional modeling approach in order to address the questions of the aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions with regards to the climate variability over the Mediterranean. In order to improve the characterization of Mediterranean aerosols, a new interannual monthly climatology of aerosol optical depth has been developed from a blended product based on both satellite-derived and model-simulated datasets. This dataset, available for every regional climate model over the Mediterranean for the 1979-2012 period, has been built to obtain the best possible estimate of the atmospheric aerosol content for the five species at stake (sulfate, black carbon, organic matter, desert dust and sea salt particles). Simulation ensembles, which have been carried out over the 2003-2009 period with and without aerosols, show a major impact on the regional climate. The seasonal cycle and the spatial patterns of the Mediterranean climate are significantly modified, as well as some specific situations such as the heat wave in July 2006 strengthened by the presence of desert dust particles. The essential role of the Mediterranean sea surface temperature is highlighted, and enables to understand the induced changes on air-sea fluxes and the consequences on regional climate. Oceanic convection is also strengthened by aerosols. In addition, the decrease in anthropogenic aerosols observed for more than thirty years is shown to significantly contribute to the observed Euro-Mediterranean climatic trends in terms of surface radiation and temperature. Besides, an interactive aerosol scheme has been developed

  11. Life sciences domain analysis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freimuth, Robert R; Freund, Elaine T; Schick, Lisa; Sharma, Mukesh K; Stafford, Grace A; Suzek, Baris E; Hernandez, Joyce; Hipp, Jason; Kelley, Jenny M; Rokicki, Konrad; Pan, Sue; Buckler, Andrew; Stokes, Todd H; Fernandez, Anna; Fore, Ian; Buetow, Kenneth H; Klemm, Juli D

    2012-01-01

    Meaningful exchange of information is a fundamental challenge in collaborative biomedical research. To help address this, the authors developed the Life Sciences Domain Analysis Model (LS DAM), an information model that provides a framework for communication among domain experts and technical teams developing information systems to support biomedical research. The LS DAM is harmonized with the Biomedical Research Integrated Domain Group (BRIDG) model of protocol-driven clinical research. Together, these models can facilitate data exchange for translational research. The content of the LS DAM was driven by analysis of life sciences and translational research scenarios and the concepts in the model are derived from existing information models, reference models and data exchange formats. The model is represented in the Unified Modeling Language and uses ISO 21090 data types. The LS DAM v2.2.1 is comprised of 130 classes and covers several core areas including Experiment, Molecular Biology, Molecular Databases and Specimen. Nearly half of these classes originate from the BRIDG model, emphasizing the semantic harmonization between these models. Validation of the LS DAM against independently derived information models, research scenarios and reference databases supports its general applicability to represent life sciences research. The LS DAM provides unambiguous definitions for concepts required to describe life sciences research. The processes established to achieve consensus among domain experts will be applied in future iterations and may be broadly applicable to other standardization efforts. The LS DAM provides common semantics for life sciences research. Through harmonization with BRIDG, it promotes interoperability in translational science.

  12. CRITICA: coding region identification tool invoking comparative analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badger, J. H.; Olsen, G. J.; Woese, C. R. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    Gene recognition is essential to understanding existing and future DNA sequence data. CRITICA (Coding Region Identification Tool Invoking Comparative Analysis) is a suite of programs for identifying likely protein-coding sequences in DNA by combining comparative analysis of DNA sequences with more common noncomparative methods. In the comparative component of the analysis, regions of DNA are aligned with related sequences from the DNA databases; if the translation of the aligned sequences has greater amino acid identity than expected for the observed percentage nucleotide identity, this is interpreted as evidence for coding. CRITICA also incorporates noncomparative information derived from the relative frequencies of hexanucleotides in coding frames versus other contexts (i.e., dicodon bias). The dicodon usage information is derived by iterative analysis of the data, such that CRITICA is not dependent on the existence or accuracy of coding sequence annotations in the databases. This independence makes the method particularly well suited for the analysis of novel genomes. CRITICA was tested by analyzing the available Salmonella typhimurium DNA sequences. Its predictions were compared with the DNA sequence annotations and with the predictions of GenMark. CRITICA proved to be more accurate than GenMark, and moreover, many of its predictions that would seem to be errors instead reflect problems in the sequence databases. The source code of CRITICA is freely available by anonymous FTP (rdp.life.uiuc.edu in/pub/critica) and on the World Wide Web (http:/(/)rdpwww.life.uiuc.edu).

  13. CRITICA: coding region identification tool invoking comparative analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badger, J. H.; Olsen, G. J.; Woese, C. R. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    Gene recognition is essential to understanding existing and future DNA sequence data. CRITICA (Coding Region Identification Tool Invoking Comparative Analysis) is a suite of programs for identifying likely protein-coding sequences in DNA by combining comparative analysis of DNA sequences with more common noncomparative methods. In the comparative component of the analysis, regions of DNA are aligned with related sequences from the DNA databases; if the translation of the aligned sequences has greater amino acid identity than expected for the observed percentage nucleotide identity, this is interpreted as evidence for coding. CRITICA also incorporates noncomparative information derived from the relative frequencies of hexanucleotides in coding frames versus other contexts (i.e., dicodon bias). The dicodon usage information is derived by iterative analysis of the data, such that CRITICA is not dependent on the existence or accuracy of coding sequence annotations in the databases. This independence makes the method particularly well suited for the analysis of novel genomes. CRITICA was tested by analyzing the available Salmonella typhimurium DNA sequences. Its predictions were compared with the DNA sequence annotations and with the predictions of GenMark. CRITICA proved to be more accurate than GenMark, and moreover, many of its predictions that would seem to be errors instead reflect problems in the sequence databases. The source code of CRITICA is freely available by anonymous FTP (rdp.life.uiuc.edu in/pub/critica) and on the World Wide Web (http:/(/)rdpwww.life.uiuc.edu).

  14. Frailty Models in Survival Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Wienke, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    The concept of frailty offers a convenient way to introduce unobserved heterogeneity and associations into models for survival data. In its simplest form, frailty is an unobserved random proportionality factor that modifies the hazard function of an individual or a group of related individuals. "Frailty Models in Survival Analysis" presents a comprehensive overview of the fundamental approaches in the area of frailty models. The book extensively explores how univariate frailty models can represent unobserved heterogeneity. It also emphasizes correlated frailty models as extensions of

  15. Dust processing in photodissociation regions - Mid-IR emission modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Compiegne, M; Verstraete, L; Habart, E

    2008-01-01

    Mid-infrared spectroscopy of dense illuminated ridges (or photodissociation regions, PDRs) suggests dust evolution. Such evolution must be reflected in the gas physical properties through processes like photo-electric heating or H_2 formation. With Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph (IRS) and ISOCAM data, we study the mid-IR emission of closeby, well known PDRs. Focusing on the band and continuum dust emissions, we follow their relative contributions and analyze their variations in terms of abundance of dust populations. In order to disentangle dust evolution and excitation effects, we use a dust emission model that we couple to radiative transfer. Our dust model reproduces extinction and emission of the standard interstellar medium that we represent with diffuse high galactic latitude clouds called Cirrus. We take the properties of dust in Cirrus as a reference to which we compare the dust emission from more excited regions, namely the Horsehead and the reflection nebula NGC 2023 North. We show that in both regio...

  16. A Collaborative Network Model for Agrifood Transactions on Regional Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpentesta, Antonio P.; Ammirato, Salvatore

    The paper deals with a collaborative agrifood network in a regional scenario where producers of high typical and quality goods and consumer groups are involved in agrifood transactions as well as information and knowledge exchanges through an e-business platform. While producers are engaged in providing consumers with useful and timely information about healthiness, environmentally friendliness and most importantly, food quality of their products, consumers are engaged in giving prompt and understandable feedbacks to the producers. In this sense, the network is a form of proactive learning community. Starting from some basic socio-economic assumptions on a reference territory, we present an organizational model that can be adopted to foster the development of the regional area where it is applied. An instantiation of the model for a selected territory (the District of High Quality Productions in Sibari, Calabria, Italy) and first results, coming from two pilot tests, have been summarized as well.

  17. Impact of GOCE on Regional Geoid Modelling: Finnish Territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saari, Timo; Bilker-Koivula, Mirjam; Poutanen, Markku

    2016-08-01

    In the Dragon 3 project 10519 "Case study on heterogeneous geoid/quasigeoid based on space borne and terrestrial data combination with special consideration of GOCE mission data impact" we combined the latest GOCE models with the terrestrial gravity data of Finland and surrounding areas to calculate a quasi-geoid model for Finland. Altogether 249 geoid models with different modifications were calculated using the GOCE DIR5 models up to spherical harmonic degree and order 240 and 300 and the EIGEN-6C4 up to degree and order 1000 and 2190.The calculated quasi-geoid models were compared against the ground truth in Finland with two independent GPS-levelling datasets. The best GOCE- only models gave standard deviations of 2.8 cm, 2.6 cm (DIR5 d/o 240) and 2.7 cm, 2.3 cm (DIR5 d/o 300) in Finnish territory for NLS-FIN and EUVN-DA datasets, respectively. For the high resolution model EIGEN-6C4 (which includes the full cycle of the GOCE data), the results were 2.4 cm, 1.8 cm (d/o 1000) and 2.5 cm, 1.7 (d/o 2190). The sub-2-centimetre (and near 2 cm with GOCE-only) accuracy is an improvement over the previous and current Finnish geoid models, thus leading to a conclusion of the great impact of the GOCE- mission on regional geoid modelling.

  18. North Alaska petroleum analysis: the regional map compilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saltus, Richard W.; Bird, Kenneth J.

    2003-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey initiated an effort to model north Alaskan petroleum systems. The geographic and geologic basis for modeling systems is provided by a set of regional digital maps that allow evaluation of the widest possible extent of each system. Accordingly, we laid out a rectangular map grid 1300 km (800 miles) east-west and 600 km (375 miles) north-south. The resulting map area extends from the Yukon Territory of Canada on the east to the Russian-U.S. Chukchi Sea on the west and from the Brooks Range on the south to the Canada basin-Chukchi borderland on the north. Within this map region, we combined disparate types of publicly available data to produce structure contour maps. Data types range from seismic-based mapping as in the National Petroleum Reserve to well penetrations in areas of little or no seismic data where extrapolation was required. With these types of data, we produced structure contour maps on three horizons: top of pre-Mississippian (basement), top of Triassic (Ellesmerian sequence), and top of Neocomian (Beaufortian sequence). These horizons, when combined with present-day topography and bathymetry, provide the bounding structural/stratigraphic surfaces of the north Alaskan petroleum province that mark major defining moments of the region's geologic history and allow regional portrayal of preserved sediment accumulations.

  19. Analysis of extreme hydrological phenomena in southern Italy (Calabria region)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caloiero, Tommaso; Aceto, Luigi; Aurora Pasqua, A.; Petrucci, Olga

    2017-04-01

    Calabria (southern Italy) is a region exposed to the effects of contrasting climatic and hydrological phenomena. In fact, due to its oblong shape, to its position in the middle of the Mediterranean Basin, and for its mountainous nature, Calabria shows a high spatial variability of the climatic features and of related phenomena such as floods and drought. The present paper is based on the historical database ASICal (Historically flooded areas in Calabria), a catalogue of effects of floods and rain-related landslides that occurred in the region since the XIX Century. The catalogue has been built using the typical historical data sources as chronicles, diaries, historical books, local and regional agencies, press archives, scientific papers, and documents of civil protection offices. From these sources, we selected information on damage caused by rain related phenomena at a municipal scale and chronologically sorted by year, month and day. The analysis of the entire catalogue allows highlighting the regional Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHE), defined as periods of intense rain causing damage on regional sectors conventionally selected as larger than 30% of the entire regional territory. For each event, as a measure of the magnitude of rainfall, the return period of the daily rainfall recorded during the event has been evaluated. In addition, we recently carried out a similar historical research to identify the main drought events affecting the region. In this case, due to the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought, data are collected both at municipal and regional scale, and the temporal scale is generally monthly or annual. For each event, we used as climatic descriptors a drought index for monitoring drought phenomena. Among drought indices, we used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) which can be considered the most robust and effective, since it can be calculated for different time-scales and can be used to analyse different drought categories

  20. Stochastic modeling analysis and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Nelson, Barry L

    1995-01-01

    A coherent introduction to the techniques for modeling dynamic stochastic systems, this volume also offers a guide to the mathematical, numerical, and simulation tools of systems analysis. Suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduate-level industrial engineers and management science majors, it proposes modeling systems in terms of their simulation, regardless of whether simulation is employed for analysis. Beginning with a view of the conditions that permit a mathematical-numerical analysis, the text explores Poisson and renewal processes, Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, se

  1. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  2. Simple Model for Identifying Critical Regions in Atrial Fibrillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Nicholas S.

    2015-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common abnormal heart rhythm and the single biggest cause of stroke. Ablation, destroying regions of the atria, is applied largely empirically and can be curative but with a disappointing clinical success rate. We design a simple model of activation wave front propagation on an anisotropic structure mimicking the branching network of heart muscle cells. This integration of phenomenological dynamics and pertinent structure shows how AF emerges spontaneously when the transverse cell-to-cell coupling decreases, as occurs with age, beyond a threshold value. We identify critical regions responsible for the initiation and maintenance of AF, the ablation of which terminates AF. The simplicity of the model allows us to calculate analytically the risk of arrhythmia and express the threshold value of transversal cell-to-cell coupling as a function of the model parameters. This threshold value decreases with increasing refractory period by reducing the number of critical regions which can initiate and sustain microreentrant circuits. These biologically testable predictions might inform ablation therapies and arrhythmic risk assessment. PMID:25635565

  3. Modeling the Photoionized Interface in Blister HII Regions

    CERN Document Server

    Sankrit, R; Sankrit, Ravi

    2000-01-01

    We present a grid of photoionization models for the emission from photoevaporative interfaces between the ionized gas and molecular cloud in blister HII regions. For the density profiles of the emitting gas in the models, we use a general power law form calculated for photoionized, photoevaporative flows by Bertoldi (1989). We find that the spatial emission line profiles are dependent on the incident flux, the shape of the ionizing continuum and the elemental abundances. In particular, we find that the peak emissivity of the [SII] and [NII] lines are more sensitive to the elemental abundances than are the total line intensities. The diagnostics obtained from the grid of models can be used in conjunction with high spatial resolution data to infer the properties of ionized interfaces in blister HII regions. As an example, we consider a location at the tip of an ``elephant trunk'' structure in M16 (the Eagle Nebula) and show how narrow band HST-WFPC2 images constrain the HII region properties. We present a photo...

  4. Attributing Sources of Variability in Regional Climate Model Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, C. G.; Sain, S. R.

    2008-12-01

    Variability in regional climate model (RCM) projections may be due to a number of factors, including the choice of RCM itself, the boundary conditions provided by a driving general circulation model (GCM), and the choice of emission scenario. We describe a new statistical methodology, Gaussian Process ANOVA, which allows us to decompose these sources of variability while also taking account of correlations in the output across space. Our hierarchical Bayesian framework easily allows joint inference about high probability envelopes for the functions, as well as decompositions of total variance that vary over the domain of the functions. These may be used to create maps illustrating the magnitude of each source of variability across the domain of the regional model. We use this method to analyze temperature and precipitation data from the Prudence Project, an RCM intercomparison project in which RCMs were crossed with GCM forcings and scenarios in a designed experiment. This work was funded by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP).

  5. Dissemination of regional rainfall analysis in design and analysis of urban drainage at un-gauged locations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Harremoes, Poul; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2002-01-01

    A research program in Denmark on statistical modelling of rainfall has resulted in a model for regional distribution of rainfall extremes. The results show that extreme rainfalls critical to the hydraulic function of urban drainage systems and the pollution discharge are subject to a significant...... regional variation of extreme rainfalls throughout the country. This has implications for design and analysis of all practical problems related to urban drainage, since the rainfall data so far recommended as input to engineering analyses underestimates the problems. Consequently, the Danish Water...

  6. Model building techniques for analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walther, Howard P.; McDaniel, Karen Lynn; Keener, Donald; Cordova, Theresa Elena; Henry, Ronald C.; Brooks, Sean; Martin, Wilbur D.

    2009-09-01

    The practice of mechanical engineering for product development has evolved into a complex activity that requires a team of specialists for success. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has product engineers, mechanical designers, design engineers, manufacturing engineers, mechanical analysts and experimentalists, qualification engineers, and others that contribute through product realization teams to develop new mechanical hardware. The goal of SNL's Design Group is to change product development by enabling design teams to collaborate within a virtual model-based environment whereby analysis is used to guide design decisions. Computer-aided design (CAD) models using PTC's Pro/ENGINEER software tools are heavily relied upon in the product definition stage of parts and assemblies at SNL. The three-dimensional CAD solid model acts as the design solid model that is filled with all of the detailed design definition needed to manufacture the parts. Analysis is an important part of the product development process. The CAD design solid model (DSM) is the foundation for the creation of the analysis solid model (ASM). Creating an ASM from the DSM currently is a time-consuming effort; the turnaround time for results of a design needs to be decreased to have an impact on the overall product development. This effort can be decreased immensely through simple Pro/ENGINEER modeling techniques that summarize to the method features are created in a part model. This document contains recommended modeling techniques that increase the efficiency of the creation of the ASM from the DSM.

  7. Capacity Region of a New Bus Communication Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuojun Zhuang

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study a new bus communication model, where two transmitters wish to send their corresponding private messages and a common message to a destination, while they also wish to send the common message to another receiver connected to the same wire. From an information-theoretical point of view, we first study a general case of this new model (with discrete memoryless channels. The capacity region composed of all achievable (R0,R1,R2 triples is determined for this general model, where R1 and R2 are the transmission rates of the private messages and R0 is the transmission rate of the common message. Then, the result is further explained via the Gaussian example. Finally, we give the capacity region for the new bus communication model with additive Gaussian noises and attenuation factors. This new bus communication model captures various communication scenarios, such as the bus systems in vehicles, and the bus type of communication channel in power line communication (PLC networks.

  8. Modelling regional trade of CO{sub 2} certificates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bueeler, B.; Bahn, O.; Kypreos, S. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    Many countries have developed energy models (such as MARKAL-MACRO---MM) to assess their energy policies, in particular concerning the curbing of their carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. To integrate national MM models, we propose a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO (3M) model. It enables one to study an international co-operation to curb jointly CO{sub 2} emissions through a market of emission permits. Furthermore, from a decision support perspective, the 3M model can be used to integrate aspects of ecological sustainability (in relation to global climate change issue), economic welfare, efficient resource use and technological innovation. To solve 3M, we follow two alternative mathematical methods. (author) 4 refs.

  9. Some Challenges Posed by Coal Bed Methane Regional Assessment Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Catherine R; Doherty, John; Howell, Stephen; Erriah, Leon

    2015-01-01

    Coal measures (coal bearing rock strata) can contain large reserves of methane. These reserves are being exploited at a rapidly increasing rate in many parts of the world. To extract coal seam gas, thousands of wells are drilled at relatively small spacing to depressurize coal seams to induce desorption and allow subsequent capture of the gas. To manage this process effectively, the effect of coal bed methane (CBM) extraction on regional aquifer systems must be properly understood and managed. Groundwater modeling is an integral part of this management process. However, modeling of CBM impacts presents some unique challenges, as processes that are operative at two very different scales must be adequately represented in the models. The impacts of large-scale gas extraction may be felt over a large area, yet despite the significant upscaling that accompanies construction of a regional model, near-well conditions and processes cannot be ignored. These include the highly heterogeneous nature of many coal measures, and the dual-phase flow of water and gas that is induced by coal seam depressurization. To understand these challenges, a fine-scale model was constructed incorporating a detailed representation of lithological heterogeneity to ensure that near-well processes and conditions could be examined. The detail of this heterogeneity was at a level not previously employed in models built to assess groundwater impacts arising from CBM extraction. A dual-phase reservoir simulator was used to examine depressurization and water desaturation processes in the vicinity of an extractive wellfield within this fine-scale model. A single-phase simulator was then employed so that depressurization errors incurred by neglecting near-well, dual-phase flow could be explored. Two models with fewer lithological details were then constructed in order to examine the nature of depressurization errors incurred by upscaling and to assess the interaction of the upscaling process with the

  10. Effects of modeling decisions on cold region hydrological model performance: snow, soil and streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musselman, Keith; Clark, Martyn; Endalamaw, Abraham; Bolton, W. Robert; Nijssen, Bart; Arnold, Jeffrey

    2017-04-01

    Cold regions are characterized by intense spatial gradients in climate, vegetation and soil properties that determine the complex spatiotemporal patterns of snowpack evolution, frozen soil dynamics, catchment connectivity, and streamflow. These spatial gradients pose unique challenges for hydrological models, including: 1) how the spatial variability of the physical processes are best represented across a hierarchy of scales, and 2) what algorithms and parameter sets best describe the biophysical and hydrological processes at the spatial scale of interest. To address these topics, we apply the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) to simulate hydrological processes at the Caribou - Poker Creeks Research Watershed in the Alaskan sub-arctic Boreal forest. The site is characterized by numerous gauged headwater catchments ranging in size from 5 sq. km to 106 sq. km with varying extents (3% to 53%) of discontinuous permafrost that permits a multi-scale paired watershed analysis of the hydrological impacts of frozen soils. We evaluate the effects of model decisions on the skill of SUMMA to simulate observed snow and soil dynamics, and the spatial integration of these processes as catchment streamflow. Decisions such as the number of soil layers, total soil column depth, and vertical soil discretization are shown to have profound impacts on the simulation of seasonal active layer dynamics. Decisions on the spatial organization (lateral connectivity, representation of riparian response units, and the spatial discretization of the hydrological landscape) are shown to be as important as accurate snowpack and soil process representation in the simulation of streamflow. The work serves to better inform hydrological model decisions for cold region hydrologic evaluation and to improve predictive capacity for water resource planning.

  11. A Data Driven Framework for Integrating Regional Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansing, C.; Kleese van Dam, K.; Liu, Y.; Elsethagen, T.; Guillen, Z.; Stephan, E.; Critchlow, T.; Gorton, I.

    2012-12-01

    There are increasing needs for research addressing complex climate sensitive issues of concern to decision-makers and policy planners at a regional level. Decisions about allocating scarce water across competing municipal, agricultural, and ecosystem demands is just one of the challenges ahead, along with decisions regarding competing land use priorities such as biofuels, food, and species habitat. Being able to predict the extent of future climate change in the context of introducing alternative energy production strategies requires a new generation of modeling capabilities. We will also need more complete representations of human systems at regional scales, incorporating the influences of population centers, land use, agriculture and existing and planned electrical demand and generation infrastructure. At PNNL we are working towards creating a first-of-a-kind capability known as the Integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM). The fundamental goal of the iRESM initiative is the critical analyses of the tradeoffs and consequences of decision and policy making for integrated human and environmental systems. This necessarily combines different scientific processes, bridging different temporal and geographic scales and resolving the semantic differences between them. To achieve this goal, iRESM is developing a modeling framework and supporting infrastructure that enable the scientific team to evaluate different scenarios in light of specific stakeholder questions such as "How do regional changes in mean climate states and climate extremes affect water storage and energy consumption and how do such decisions influence possible mitigation and carbon management schemes?" The resulting capability will give analysts a toolset to gain insights into how regional economies can respond to climate change mitigation policies and accelerated deployment of alternative energy technologies. The iRESM framework consists of a collection of coupled models working with high

  12. Prognostication and the cluster analysis of the development of the regional market for habitable real estate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin Derkachenko

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In the article the analysis of the dynamics of basic indices is carried out, that characterize the market for new constructions and the market for the second dwelling of Penzenskaya Oblast' are built models for predicting the mean price of one square meter of dwelling. Model for predicting the introduction of dwelling taking into account dummy variables is built and is executed the short-term forecast of the indices in question. The uniform regions of region on the basis of the indices of the housing conditions for population are revealed and clusters with the levels of housing development are determined.

  13. Evaluating Direct Radiative Effects of Absorbing Aerosols on Atmospheric Dynamics with Aquaplanet and Regional Model Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Can, Ö.; Tegen, I.; Quaas, J.

    2015-12-01

    Effects of absorbing aerosol on atmospheric dynamics are usually investigated with help of general circulation models or also regional models that represent the atmospheric system as realistic as possible. Reducing the complexity of models used to study the effects of absorbing aerosol on atmospheric dynamics helps to understand underlying mechanisms. In this study, by using ECHAM6 General Circulation Model (GCM) in an Aquaplanet setting and using simplified aerosol climatology, an initial idealization step has been taken. The analysis only considers direct radiative effects, furthering the reduction of complex model results. The simulations include cases including aerosol radiative forcing, no aerosol forcing, coarse mode aerosol forcing only (as approximation for mineral dust forcing) and forcing with increased aerosol absorption. The results showed that increased absorption affects cloud cover mainly in subtropics. Hadley circulation is found to be weakened in the increased absorption case. To compare the results of the idealized model with a more realistic model setting, the results of the regional model COSMO-MUSCAT that includes interactive mineral dust aerosol and considers the effects of dust radiative forcing are also analyzed. The regional model computes the atmospheric circulation for the year 2007 twice, including the feedback of dust and excluding the dust aerosol forcing. It is investigated to which extent the atmospheric response to the dust forcing agrees with the simplified Aquaplanet results. As expected, in the regional model mineral dust causes an increase in the temperature right above the dust layer while reducing the temperature close to the surface. In both models the presence of aerosol forcing leads to increased specific humidity, close to ITCZ. Notwithstanding the difference magnitudes, comparisons of the global aquaplanet and the regional model showed similar patterns. Further detailed comparisons will be presented.

  14. Spatial data analysis and integration for regional-scale geothermal potential mapping, West Java, Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carranza, Emmanuel John M.; Barritt, Sally D. [Department of Earth Systems Analysis, International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Enschede (Netherlands); Wibowo, Hendro; Sumintadireja, Prihadi [Laboratory of Volcanology and Geothermal, Geology Department, Institute of Technology Bandung (ITB), Bandung (Indonesia)

    2008-06-15

    Conceptual modeling and predictive mapping of potential for geothermal resources at the regional-scale in West Java are supported by analysis of the spatial distribution of geothermal prospects and thermal springs, and their spatial associations with geologic features derived from publicly available regional-scale spatial data sets. Fry analysis shows that geothermal occurrences have regional-scale spatial distributions that are related to Quaternary volcanic centers and shallow earthquake epicenters. Spatial frequency distribution analysis shows that geothermal occurrences have strong positive spatial associations with Quaternary volcanic centers, Quaternary volcanic rocks, quasi-gravity lows, and NE-, NNW-, WNW-trending faults. These geological features, with their strong positive spatial associations with geothermal occurrences, constitute spatial recognition criteria of regional-scale geothermal potential in a study area. Application of data-driven evidential belief functions in GIS-based predictive mapping of regional-scale geothermal potential resulted in delineation of high potential zones occupying 25% of West Java, which is a substantial reduction of the search area for further exploration of geothermal resources. The predicted high potential zones delineate about 53-58% of the training geothermal areas and 94% of the validated geothermal occurrences. The results of this study demonstrate the value of regional-scale geothermal potential mapping in: (a) data-poor situations, such as West Java, and (b) regions with geotectonic environments similar to the study area. (author)

  15. A regional adaptive and assimilative three-dimensional ionospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbagh, Dario; Scotto, Carlo; Sgrigna, Vittorio

    2016-03-01

    A regional adaptive and assimilative three-dimensional (3D) ionospheric model is proposed. It is able to ingest real-time data from different ionosondes, providing the ionospheric bottomside plasma frequency fp over the Italian area. The model is constructed on the basis of empirical values for a set of ionospheric parameters Pi[base] over the considered region, some of which have an assigned variation ΔPi. The values for the ionospheric parameters actually observed at a given time at a given site will thus be Pi = Pi[base] + ΔPi. These Pi values are used as input for an electron density N(h) profiler. The latter is derived from the Advanced Ionospheric Profiler (AIP), which is software used by Autoscala as part of the process of automatic inversion of ionogram traces. The 3D model ingests ionosonde data by minimizing the root-mean-square deviation between the observed and modeled values of fp(h) profiles obtained from the associated N(h) values at the points where observations are available. The ΔPi values are obtained from this minimization procedure. The 3D model is tested using data collected at the ionospheric stations of Rome (41.8N, 12.5E) and Gibilmanna (37.9N, 14.0E), and then comparing the results against data from the ionospheric station of San Vito dei Normanni (40.6N, 18.0E). The software developed is able to produce maps of the critical frequencies foF2 and foF1, and of fp at a fixed altitude, with transverse and longitudinal cross-sections of the bottomside ionosphere in a color scale. fp(h) and associated simulated ordinary ionogram traces can easily be produced for any geographic location within the Italian region. fp values within the volume in question can also be provided.

  16. The research on the impact of energy-environment policy on regional development—based on CGE model

    Science.gov (U