WorldWideScience

Sample records for regional impacts studies

  1. Development of regional growth centres and impact on regional growth: A case study of Thailand’s Northeastern region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nattapon Sang-arun

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the spatial economic structure and inequality in Thailand at the national and regional levels, with a particular focus on the Northeastern region in the period from 1987 to 2007. The study has three main points: 1 examination of the economic structure and inequality at the national level and in the Northeastern region according to the Theil index, 2 determination of regional growth centres and satellite towns by using growth pole theory as a conceptual framework and incorporating spatial interaction analysis and 3 analysis of the relationship between regional growth centres and satellite towns with regard to the impact on growth and inequality. The results show that the Northeastern region is definitely the lagging region in the nation, by both gross domestic product (GDP and gross regional product (GRP per capita. It was therefore selected for a case study. Spatial analysis identified Nakhon Ratchasima, Khon Kaen, Udon Thani and Ubon Ratchathani as regional growth centres. Each of them has its own sphere of influence (or satellite towns, and the total area of regional growth centres and satellite towns are classified as sub-regions. The development of regional growth centres has a direct impact on sub-regional economic growth through economic and social relationships: urbanisation, industrial development, per capita growth, the number of higher educational institutes and so on. However, such growth negatively correlates with economic equality among the provinces in a sub-region. The inequality trend is obviously on an upswing. This study suggests that industrial links between regional growth centres and their satellite towns should be improved in order for regional growth centre development to have a consistently desirable effect on both economic growth and equality. Such a strong process means that the growth of regional growth centres will spread, leading to the development of their surrounding areas.

  2. Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, J.H.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.

    1996-01-01

    The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

  3. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Kucharski, Fred; Azharuddin, Syed

    2017-03-01

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (`SPEEDY'). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air-sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant impact

  4. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Muhammad Mubashar Dogar; Fred Kucharski; Syed Azharuddin

    2017-03-01

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last fewdecades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnectionpatterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is alsorequired for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase ofENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Ni˜na phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  5. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar

    2017-03-09

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  6. An intercomparison of regional climate model data for hydrological impact studies in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Butts, Michael;

    2010-01-01

    The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject...... to considerable systematic errors. In this study, projected climate change data from the RCM HIRHAM4 are used to generate climate scenario time series of precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration for the period 2071-2100 for hydrological impact assessments in Denmark. RCM output for the present...

  7. East Asian Studies of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST -AIRC): An overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhangqing, Li; Li, C.; Chen, H.; Tsay, S.-C.; Holben, B.; Huang, J.; Li, B.; Maring, H.; Qian, Y.; Shi, G.; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Zhuang, G.

    2011-01-01

    As the most populated region of the world, Asia is a major source of aerosols with potential large impact over vast downstream areas, Papers published in this special section describe the variety of aerosols observed in China and their effects and interactions with the regional climate as part of the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC), The majority of the papers are based on analyses of observations made under three field projects, namely, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Mobile Facility mission in China (AMF-China), the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: An International Regional Experiment (EAST-AIRE), and the Atmospheric Aerosols of China and their Climate Effects (AACCE), The former two are U,S,-China collaborative projects, and the latter is a part of the China's National Basic Research program (or often referred to as "973 project"), Routine meteorological data of China are also employed in some studies, The wealth of general and speCIalized measurements lead to extensive and close-up investigations of the optical, physical, and chemical properties of anthropogenic, natural, and mixed aerosols; their sources, formation, and transport mechanisms; horizontal, vertical, and temporal variations; direct and indirect effects; and interactions with the East Asian monsoon system, Particular efforts are made to advance our understanding of the mixing and interaction between dust and anthropogenic pollutants during transport. Several modeling studies were carried out to simulate aerosol impact on radiation budget, temperature, precipitation, wind and atmospheric circulation, fog, etc, In addition, impacts of the Asian monsoon system on aerosol loading are also simulated.

  8. REGIONAL-LEVEL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF GRAZING POLICY CHANGES: A CASE STUDY FROM OWYHEE COUNTY, IDAHO

    OpenAIRE

    Darden, Tim D.; Rimbey, Neil R.; Harp, Aaron J.; Harris, Thomas R.

    2001-01-01

    Regional economic impact models are important tools used to analyze the impacts of policy changes to a regional, state, county, or local economies. The National Environmental Policy Act requires economic analysis in preparing environmental impact statements to show the effects of policy alternatives on local economies. An input-output model was constructed for Owyhee County, Idaho, using farm- and ranch-level economic information to modify and localize the county IMPLAN model. This paper show...

  9. Considerations about gust wind thresholds related to social impact: study of different regions in Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barberia, Laura; Amaro, Jéssica; Aran, Montserrat; Llasat, Maria del Carmen

    2016-04-01

    Severe weather events can cause several damages on a territory and its population, affecting urban infrastructure and housing, among others. In particular, wind is one of the most important phenomena which cause remarkable economic losses. Since 2008, different studies conducted by the Social Impact Research Group, in the frame of HYMEX project, determined that requests related to damage claims which are received in Meteorological Services are a good proxy indicator of social impact. However, the strong wind studies took into account a unique threshold, which proved to be insufficient. It was found that it was necessary to define a threshold for each area, according to its vulnerability and exposure. Therefore, the aim of this study is to define, for each county in Catalonia, thresholds of gust wind speed for which a remarkable social impact is observed. To accomplish this, the database of requests received in the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) between 2011 and 2015 has been used. For each request, the most representative automatic weather stations are associated. Statistical treatments of the gust wind data recorded by these stations have been carried out in order to determine which values are related to social impact. As an example, one of the first results shows that in a populated area like Barcelona, the average gust is approximately 70 km/h. On the contrary, in other less populated counties and usually more exposed to strong winds, the mean is over 85 km/h. Besides, the relation between gusts and requests has been analyzed to detect significant slope changes. In general, it has been detected an increase of requests at certain gust wind values. These results, which vary depending on the region's vulnerability and exposure, could be used to establish new thresholds for Civil Protection alarms. Therefore, a higher accuracy by region will be reached.

  10. Climate change impact on shallow groundwater conditions in Hungary: Conclusions from a regional modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovács, Attila; Marton, Annamária; Tóth, György; Szöcs, Teodóra

    2016-04-01

    A quantitative methodology has been developed for the calculation of groundwater table based on measured and simulated climate parameters. The aim of the study was to develop a toolset which can be used for the calculation of shallow groundwater conditions for various climate scenarios. This was done with the goal of facilitating the assessment of climate impact and vulnerability of shallow groundwater resources. The simulated groundwater table distributions are representative of groundwater conditions at the regional scale. The introduced methodology is valid for modelling purposes at various scales and thus represents a versatile tool for the assessment of climate vulnerability of shallow groundwater bodies. The calculation modules include the following: 1. A toolset to calculate climate zonation from climate parameter grids, 2. Delineation of recharge zones (Hydrological Response Units, HRUs) based on geology, landuse and slope conditions, 3. Calculation of percolation (recharge) rates using 1D analytical hydrological models, 4. Simulation of the groundwater table using numerical groundwater flow models. The applied methodology provides a quantitative link between climate conditions and shallow groundwater conditions, and thus can be used for assessing climate impacts. The climate data source applied in our calculation comprised interpolated daily climate data of the Central European CARPATCLIM database. Climate zones were determined making use of the Thorntwaite climate zonation scheme. Recharge zones (HRUs) were determined based on surface geology, landuse and slope conditions. The HELP hydrological model was used for the calculation of 1D water balance for hydrological response units. The MODFLOW numerical groundwater modelling code was used for the calculation of the water table. The developed methodology was demonstrated through the simulation of regional groundwater table using spatially averaged climate data and hydrogeological properties for various time

  11. Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated

  12. Regional studies program. Forecasting the local economic impacts of energy resource development: a methodological approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenehjem, E.J.

    1975-12-01

    Emphasis is placed on the nature and magnitude of socio-economic impacts of fossil-fuel development. A model is described that identifies and estimates the magnitude of the economic impacts of anticipated energy resource development in site-specific areas and geographically contiguous areas of unspecified size. The modeling methodology was designed to assist industries and government agencies complying with recent federal and state legislation requiring subregional impact analyses for individual facilities. The model was designed in light of the requirements for accuracy, expandability, and exportability. The methodology forecasts absolute increments in local and regional growth on an annual or biennial basis and transforms these parameters into estimates of the affected area's ability to accommodate growth-induced demands, especially demands for public services. (HLW)

  13. Modeling the Impacts of Urbanization on Regional Climate Change: A Case Study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyan Zhan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available China has experienced rapid urbanization since 1978, and the dramatic change in land cover is expected to have significant impacts on the climate change. Some models have been used to simulate the relationship between land use and land cover change and climate change; however, there is still no sufficient evidence for the impacts of urbanization on the regional climate. This study aims to identify the impact of urban land use change on regional temperature and precipitation in summer in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area during 2030–2040 based on the analysis of the simulation results of WRF model. Firstly, we analyzed the land use change and climate change during 1995–2005 in the study area. The impacts of future urbanization on regional climate change were then simulated. The results indicate that urbanization in this area has affected the regional climate and has the potential to increase temperature and precipitation in the summer of 2030–2040. These research results can offer decision-making support information related to future planning strategies in urban environments in consideration of regional climate change.

  14. The direct impact of landslides on household income in tropical regions: A case study from the Rwenzori Mountains in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, K; Jacobs, L; Maes, J; Kabaseke, C; Maertens, M; Poesen, J; Kervyn, M; Vranken, L

    2016-04-15

    Landslides affect millions of people worldwide, but theoretical and empirical studies on the impact of landslides remain scarce, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study proposes and applies a method to estimate the direct impact of landslides on household income and to investigate the presence of specific risk sharing and mitigation strategies towards landslides in a tropical and rural environment. An original cross-sectional household survey is used in combination with geographical data to acquire detailed information on livelihoods and on hazards in the Rwenzori mountains, Uganda. Ordinary least square regressions and probit estimations with village fixed effects are used to estimate the impact of landslides and the presence of mitigation strategies. Geographical information at household level allows to disentangle the direct impact from the indirect effects of landslides. We show that the income of affected households is substantially reduced during the first years after a landslide has occurred. We find that members of recently affected households participate more in wage-employment or in self-employed activities, presumably to address income losses following a landslide. Yet, we see that these jobs do not provide sufficient revenue to compensate for the loss of income from agriculture. Given that landslides cause localized shocks, finding a significant direct impact in our study indicates that no adequate risk sharing mechanisms are in place in the Rwenzori sub-region. These insights are used to derive policy recommendations for alleviating the impact of landslides in the region. By quantifying the direct impact of landslides on household income in an agricultural context in Africa this study draws the attention towards a problem that has been broadly underestimated so far and provides a sound scientific base for disaster risk reduction in the region. Both the methodology and the findings of this research are applicable to other tropical regions with high

  15. Border region studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Makkonen, Teemu; Williams, Allan

    2016-01-01

    The contemporary conditions of academic capitalism exert pressures on researchers to avoid ‘peripheral’ journals and ‘unfashionable’ topics. Here an attempt is made to shed light onto the structure of one such ‘offbeat’ field, namely ‘border region studies’, by discussing its geographical...... distribution, key themes, significance and impact. The review suggests that border region studies can be considered a significant and important ‘branch’ of regional studies, which accounts for a small but increasing proportion of regional studies research particularly in Europe and North America. Four main...

  16. The impact of regional and neighbourhood deprivation on physical health in Germany: a multilevel study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razum Oliver

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is increasing evidence that individual health is at least partly determined by neighbourhood and regional factors. Mechanisms, however, remain poorly understood, and evidence from Germany is scant. This study explores whether regional as well as neighbourhood deprivation are associated with physical health and to what extent this association can be explained by specific neighbourhood exposures. Methods Using 2004 data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP merged with regional and neighbourhood characteristics, we fitted multilevel linear regression models with subjective physical health, as measured by the SF-12, as the dependent variable. The models include regional and neighbourhood proxies of deprivation (i.e. regional unemployment quota, average purchasing power of the street section as well as specific neighbourhood exposures (i.e. perceived air pollution. Individual characteristics including socioeconomic status and health behaviour have been controlled for. Results This study finds a significant association between area deprivation and physical health which is independent of compositional factors and consistent across different spatial scales. Furthermore the association between neighbourhood deprivation and physical health can be partly explained by specific features of the neighbourhood environment. Among these perceived air pollution shows the strongest association with physical health (-2.4 points for very strong and -1.5 points for strong disturbance by air pollution, standard error (SE = 0.8 and 0.4, respectively. Beta coefficients for perceived air pollution, perceived noise and the perceived distance to recreational resources do not diminish when including individual health behaviour in the models. Conclusions This study highlights the difference regional and in particular neighbourhood deprivation make to the physical health of individuals in Germany. The results support the argument that

  17. Regional analysis and environmental impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parzyck, D.C.; Brocksen, R.W.; Emanuel, W.R.

    1976-01-01

    This paper presents a number of techniques that can be used to assess environmental impacts on a regional scale. Regional methodologies have been developed which examine impacts upon aquatic and terrestrial biota in regions through consideration of changes in land use, land cover, air quality, water resource use, and water quality. Techniques used to assess long-range atmospheric transport, water resources, effects on sensitive forest and animal species, and impacts on man are presented in this paper, along with an optimization approach which serves to integrate the analytical techniques in an overall assessment framework. A brief review of the research approach and certain modeling techniques used within one regional studies program is provided. While it is not an all inclusive report on regional analyses, it does present an illustration of the types of analyses that can be performed on a regional scale.

  18. A regional climate study of aerosol impacts on Indian monsoon and precipitations over the Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solmon, F.; Von Hardenberg, J.; Nair, V.; Palazzi, E.

    2013-12-01

    In the context of the PAPRIKA program we are studying the potential effects of aerosol particle on Indian climate and Himalayan region. Using the RegCM4 regional climate model we performed some experiments including on-line representation of natural and anthropogenic aerosols for present day and future conditions over the CORDEX-India domain. Dynamical boundary forcing is taken for ERAI-Interim over the period 2000-2010, and chemical boundary-conditions are prescribed as a monthly climatology form an ECEARTH/CAM simulation for present day. Different set of anthropogenic emissions (SO2, carbonaceous aerosols) are considered (IPCC RCP4.5 and REAS) whereas natural aerosol (dust and sea-salt) are calculated on line. In order to account for aerosol radiative feedback on surface energy budget over the oceans, we also implemented a 'q-flux' slab ocean model as an alternative to pure SST forcing. After a step of validation of aerosol simulation against observations, we investigate through a series of experiments the dynamical feedback of direct radiative effect of aerosol over this domain, focusing specifically on Indian Monsoon and precipitation over the Himalayas. We discriminate the effect of anthropogenic vs. natural aerosol while outlining the main mechanism of the regional climate response, as well as the sensitivity to emissions inventory. Our results will be discussed notably against previous GCM based studies. Finally we will possibly discuss future projections based on RCP4.5 EC-EARTH forcing and including aerosol effects, as well as the potential radiative effects of absorbing aerosol deposition on the Himalayan snow covers.

  19. Study on the changes of water cycle and its impacts in the source region of the Yellow River

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG; Shifeng; JIA; Shaofeng; LIU; Changming; CAO; Wenbi

    2004-01-01

    The water cycle in the source region of the Yellow River underwent great changes in the 1990s. The major features of the changes are as follows: the gauged runoff declined significantly while the precipitation increased slightly, and the runoff process was more concentrated on the flood season. Water balance analyses indicate that the pondage was kept in the status of negative equilibrium, causing eco-environmental problems. The runoff decrement is due to evaporation increment in this region. Studies show that the runoff process in this region is closely related to that of the other hydrological stations in the upper reaches. When the runoff declines in the source regions, the amount of water also declines in the whole upper reaches of the Yellow River, affecting the balance between water demand and supply. Meanwhile changes will take place in the water cycle of the river course system when the eco-environment deteriorates. The trend of water cycle change in the source region is that the runoff will keep declining with the increment of evaporation caused by temperature rise in the northwest of China in the 21st century. But the hydraulic engineering in the source region will help to mitigate the deterioration of local eco-environment system, though the impacts to the lower reaches of this project may not be the case.

  20. Comparative Study of Impacting Factors of Grain Production of Inner Mongolia Region in Different Periods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    On the basis of grey correlation analysis,8 factors impacting grain production prominently as follows are selected to establish indices system:yield per unit(X1),grain planting area(X2),agricultural labor forces(X3),the total power of agricultural machinery(X4),using amount of fertilizer(X5),the damaged area of crops(X6),effective irrigation area(X7),and agricultural fixed assets investment(X8).According to the relevant data of Inner Mongolia Statistical Yearbook from 1988 to 2008,we use the method of grey correlation analysis to analyze the factors impacting grain production in Inner Mongolia,quantify the correlation degree of the total grain output and all factors,and finally conclude the impacting capacity of all factors on grain production in the light of correlation degree value.The results show that yield per unit still is the principal factor impacting the total output of grain in Inner Mongolia;the area of grain planting and the area of affected crops are the two most important factors responsible for the decrease of grain output;effective irrigation area the total power of agricultural machinery are the two primary factors impacting the increase of grain output;the using amount of fertilizer shows dwindling impact on grain production;agricultural fixed assets investment still hovers at the minuscule impact degree on grain production.

  1. Evaluating the Impact of the Department of Defense Regional Centers for Security Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Government WHA Western Hemisphere Affairs WIF Warsaw Initiative Funds WMDs weapons of mass destruction 1 ChAptER OnE Introduction The five...and WHA = Western Hemisphere Affairs. RAND RR388-3.1 Approved regional and country-specic guidance Regional and country-specic guidanceP o lic y g...Balance Between Core Residential Courses and In-Region Workshops Officials in OSD/PSO and OSD’s Office of Western Hemisphere Affairs (OSD/ WHA

  2. Impact of Circulation Weather Types in the study of Landslides in the Northern Lisbon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvação, Nadia; Trigo, Ricardo; Câmara, Carlos; Zêzere, José Luis

    2010-05-01

    Landslides in the region north of Lisbon during the last 60 years have been induced almost entirely by rainfall, and landslide activity has been confined to very wet periods. Previous results obtained using empirical relationships between rainfall intensity and slope instability show that critical rainfall conditions for failure are not the same for different types of landslides (Zêzere et al, 2008). Shallow translational soil slips have been related to intense rainfall periods ranging from 1 to 15 days, while deep slope movements (translational slides, rotational slides and complex and composite slope movements) have been occurred in relation to longer periods of less intense rain, lasting from 30 to 90 days. The different time span is consistent with the distinct hydrological triggering conditions related to different types of landslides. Intense rainfall is responsible by the rapid growth of pore pressure and by the loss of the apparent cohesion of thin soils, resulting in failure within the soil material or at the contact with the underlying impermeable bedrock. Long lasting precipitation periods allows the steady rising of the groundwater table, thus resulting in deep failures in soils and rocks by the reduction of shear strength. Rainfall information regarding 19 important landslide events occurred between 1958 and 2001, and the knowledge of the circulation weather types (CWTs) affecting those days, allow us to study the relationship between the CWTs frequency and the occurrence of landslide episodes. We have identified 10 basic CWTs (Cyclonic, Anticyclonic and 8 directional types) following the methodology previously adopted (Trigo and DaCamara, 2000). The composites and anomalies of several meteorological fields associated to landslide events show a large precipitation anomaly in the central region of Portugal and an anomalous low-pressure system located northwest of Iberia. This pattern is similar for both shallow and deep landslides events. However, for

  3. Optimizing decentralized renewable energy production by combining potentials and integrated environmental impact analysis. A case study in the Hannover region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palmas, Claudia; Siewert, Almut [Leibniz Univ. of Hannover (Germany). Dept. of Environmental Planning

    2013-07-01

    In Europe, the integration of decentralized renewable energy production in regional planning processes plays a crucial role. In particular, regions face a major challenge in order to set up renewable decentralized energy systems and incorporate them into the electricity grid. This paper presents a methodological concept and preliminary tests of applications in order to create an optimization model for an improved renewable energy development and planning practice: firstly, the energy potentials of micro renewable resources are estimated, and secondly the outcomes are combined with an estimation of resulting environmental impacts. Including these data into the spatial analysis, different scenarios can be developed in order to support decision making in landscape planning on the basis of environmental and landscape criteria as well as energy issues, including technical aspects and costs. The case study area is the Hannover region. First results show good energy potentials, which will be in a next step evaluated and combined with environmental impacts in order to improve energy efficiency by integrated renewable, decentralized power plants and energy mix. (orig.)

  4. The profitability of energy investments. Impact studies made on regional and national economies; Energiainvestointien alue- ja kansantaloudellinen kannattavuustarkastelu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karttunen, V.; Vanhanen, J.; Vehvilainen, I.; Pesola, A.; Oja, L. [Gaia Consulting Oy, Helsinki (Finland)

    2013-11-01

    This study has shed light on the question whether it is economically justifiable to accelerate the replacing of imported fossil fuels with domestic fuels. This question has been evaluated through assessing the impacts of different energy production solutions on regional and national economies. The results are based on case studies where three types of energy investments have been examined: a 140 MW biomass gasification plant operated by Vaskiluodon Voima, a 162 MW multi-fuel combined heat and power (CHP) plant operated by Kuopio Energy, and a 0.8 MW wood chip boiler investment planned for the local heating network in Kaemmenniemi, Tampere. The calculations are based on a cash flow analysis where the aim is to assess the cash flows resulting from the investments to different stakeholders. The cash flow impacts are reported on four different levels: companies, private persons, municipalities and the government. In addition, impacts on the national current account have been assessed. The analysis of the biomass gasification plant in Vaskiluoto included a comparison of the actual realised investment and a situation where the investment would not have been made and where coal-fired energy production would have continued. With the current extremely low prices of carbon credits, the traditional company-specific analysis model, where only the impacts on the cash flows of the power plant company and its owners are considered, would lead to a situation where it would have been more profitable to continue the use of coal. However, from the regional and national economy points of view, this would be an unfavourable solution: the companies and private persons that form the domestic fuel value chain (wage earners and forest owners) would miss out on a 6.6 million EUR profit. Regarding the new multi-fuel CHP plant in Haapaniemi (operated by Kuopio Energy), the analysis has compared two extremities: energy production with a maximum share (70 %) of domestic wood-based fuel and the

  5. Andean region study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-10-01

    New opportunities for climate change mitigation arising from a higher energy integration among Andean Pact nations were analysed within the framework of the UNEP/GEF Project. Apart from the search for regional mitigation actions, the study was mainly aimed at detecting methodological problems which arise when passing from a strictly national view to the co-ordination of regional actions to deal with climate change. In accordance with the available resources and data, and in view of the mainly methodological nature of the project, it was decided to analyse the opportunities to delve into the energy integration of the Region as regards electricity and natural gas industries and their eventual impact on the emission of greenhouse gases. Although possibilities of setting up electricity and natural gas markets are real, their impacts on GHG emission from the energy system would not prove substantially higher than those which the nations could achieve through the use of their own energy resources, in view that the Andean systems are competitive rather than complementary. More in-depth studies and detail information will be required - unavailable for the present study - to be able to properly evaluate all benefits associated with higher energy integration. Nevertheless, the supply of natural gas to Ecuador seems to be the alternative with the highest impact on GHG emission. If we were to analyse the supply and final consumption of energy jointly, we would most certainly detect additional mitigation options resulting from higher co-operation and co-ordination in the energy field. (EHS)

  6. Impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in France: a regionalization study; Impacts du changement climatique sur le potentiel eolien en France: une etude de regionalisation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Najac, J.

    2008-11-15

    In this work, we study the impact of climate change on surface winds in France and draw conclusions concerning wind energy resources. Because of their coarse spatial resolution, climate models cannot properly reproduce the spatial variability of surface winds. Thus, 2 down-scaling methods are developed in order to regionalize an ensemble of climate scenarios: a statistical method based on weather typing and a statistic-dynamical method that resorts to high resolution mesoscale modelling. By 2050, significant but relatively small changes are depicted with, in particular, a decrease of the wind speed in the southern and an increase in the northern regions of France. The use of other down-scaling methods enables us to study several uncertainty sources: it appears that most of the uncertainty is due to the climate models. (author)

  7. A simple modeling approach to study the regional impact of a Mediterranean forest isoprene emission on anthropogenic plumes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cortinovis

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Research during the past decades has outlined the importance of biogenic isoprene emission in tropospheric chemistry and regional ozone photo-oxidant pollution. The first part of this article focuses on the development and validation of a simple biogenic emission scheme designed for regional studies. Experimental data sets relative to Boreal, Tropical, Temperate and Mediterranean ecosystems are used to estimate the robustness of the scheme at the canopy scale, and over contrasted climatic and ecological conditions. A good agreement is generally found when comparing field measurements and simulated emission fluxes, encouraging us to consider the model suitable for regional application. Limitations of the scheme are nevertheless outlined as well as further on-going improvements. In the second part of the article, the emission scheme is used on line in the broader context of a meso-scale atmospheric chemistry model. Dynamically idealized simulations are carried out to study the chemical interactions of pollutant plumes with realistic isoprene emissions coming from a Mediterranean oak forest. Two types of anthropogenic sources, respectively representative of the Marseille (urban and Martigues (industrial French Mediterranean sites, and both characterized by different VOC/NOx are considered. For the Marseille scenario, the impact of biogenic emission on ozone production is larger when the forest is situated in a sub-urban configuration (i.e. downwind distance TOWN-FOREST -1. In this case the enhancement of ozone production due to isoprene can reach +37% in term of maximum surface concentrations and +11% in term of total ozone production. The impact of biogenic emission decreases quite rapidly when the TOWN-FOREST distance increases. For the Martigues scenario, the biogenic impact on the plume is significant up to TOWN-FOREST distance of 90km where the ozone maximum surface concentration enhancement can still reach +30%. For both cases, the

  8. Resettlement's impact on the domestic economy in lake restoration:case study of Poyang Lake region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Yu-ping; YAN Bang-you; LI Weng-hua

    2010-01-01

    The Chinese government started a lake restoration project in Poyang Lake region 10 years ago,and the expost monitor of the migrants' livelihoods was limited.This paper compares the composition difference of domestic income and domestic consumption between migration and non-migration villages in Poyang Lake region.The results show that the migrants' domestic income has increased in the last 10 years,which originated from the increasing trend of active and extensive rural labor migration,while the resettlement has not influenced the domestic income significantly.The resettlement stimulates younger farmers to work far away from home whose wages contribute nearly 80% of domestic income.The resettlement decreases their savings due to higher expenditure of daily life for those who work far away from home,and higher expenditure of food for those who stay at home,losing cultivated lands with irrigation system for vegetable.On the other hand,the increase of rural labor migration leads the migrants who stay at home to have access to more cultivated lands for rice and cotton,and the farmers also apply more fertilizer in the same cultivated land for more agriculture products.The resettlement makes most of migrants spend their savings on the improvement of their housing conditions due to not enough governmental financial support for new building.After the analysis,some factors that influence migrants' income and consumption are discussed.The paper may contribute to the building of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone.

  9. The impact of regional climate on the evolution of mammals: a case study using fossil horses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eronen, Jussi T; Evans, Alistair R; Fortelius, Mikael; Jernvall, Jukka

    2010-02-01

    One of the classic examples of faunal turnover in the fossil record is the Miocene transition from faunas dominated by anchitheriine horses with low-crowned molar teeth to faunas with hipparionine horses characterized by high-crowned teeth. The spread of hipparionine horses is associated with increased seasonality and the expansion of open habitats. It is generally accepted that anchitheriine horses did not display an evolutionary increase in tooth crown height prior to their extinction. Nevertheless, to test whether anchitheriines showed any changes interpretable as adaptation to local conditions, we analyzed molar teeth from multiple populations of Anchitherium in three dimensions. Our results show differences in tooth morphology that suggest incipient hypsodonty in Spain, the first region experiencing increasingly arid conditions in the early Miocene of Europe. Furthermore, analyses of tooth wear show that Spanish specimens cluster with present ungulates that eat foliage together with grasses and shrubs, whereas German specimens cluster with present-day ungulates that eat mostly foliage. Taken together, even a taxon such as Anchitherium, with a long and successful history of forest adaptation, did respond to regional environmental changes in an adaptive manner.

  10. The impact of flooding on people living with HIV: a case study from the Ohangwena Region, Namibia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthonj, Carmen; Nkongolo, Odon T; Schmitz, Peter; Hango, Johannes N; Kistemann, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Floods are a disaster situation for all affected populations and especially for vulnerable groups within communities such as children, orphans, women, and people with chronic diseases such as HIV and AIDS. They need functioning health care, sanitation and hygiene, safe water, and healthy food supply, and are critically dependent on their social care and support networks. A study carried out in the Ohangwena region, Namibia, where HIV prevalence is high and extensive flooding frequently occurs, aims to provide a deeper understanding of the impact that flooding has on people living with HIV (PLWHIV) as well as on HIV service providers in the region. The qualitative research applying grounded theory included semi-structured interviews with PLWHIV, focus group discussions with HIV service providers, and a national feedback meeting. The findings were interpreted using the sustainable livelihoods framework, the natural hazard research approach, and health behaviour theories. The study reveals that flooding poses major problems to PLWHIV in terms of their everyday lives, affecting livelihoods, work, income, and living conditions. The factors threatening them under normal conditions - poverty, malnutrition, unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene, limited access to health facilities, a weak health status, and stigma - are intensified by flood-related breakdown of infrastructure, insecurity, malnutrition, and diseases evolving over the course of a flood. A potential dual risk exists for their health: the increased risk both of infection and disease due to the inaccessibility of health services and antiretroviral treatment. A HIV and Flooding Framework was developed to display the results. This study demonstrates that vulnerabilities and health risks of PLWHIV will increase in a disaster situation like flooding if access to HIV prevention, treatment, care and support are not addressed and ensured. The findings and the HIV and Flooding Framework are not specific to Ohangwena and

  11. The impact of flooding on people living with HIV: a case study from the Ohangwena Region, Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Anthonj

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Floods are a disaster situation for all affected populations and especially for vulnerable groups within communities such as children, orphans, women, and people with chronic diseases such as HIV and AIDS. They need functioning health care, sanitation and hygiene, safe water, and healthy food supply, and are critically dependent on their social care and support networks. A study carried out in the Ohangwena region, Namibia, where HIV prevalence is high and extensive flooding frequently occurs, aims to provide a deeper understanding of the impact that flooding has on people living with HIV (PLWHIV as well as on HIV service providers in the region. Design: The qualitative research applying grounded theory included semi-structured interviews with PLWHIV, focus group discussions with HIV service providers, and a national feedback meeting. The findings were interpreted using the sustainable livelihoods framework, the natural hazard research approach, and health behaviour theories. Results: The study reveals that flooding poses major problems to PLWHIV in terms of their everyday lives, affecting livelihoods, work, income, and living conditions. The factors threatening them under normal conditions – poverty, malnutrition, unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene, limited access to health facilities, a weak health status, and stigma – are intensified by flood-related breakdown of infrastructure, insecurity, malnutrition, and diseases evolving over the course of a flood. A potential dual risk exists for their health: the increased risk both of infection and disease due to the inaccessibility of health services and antiretroviral treatment. A HIV and Flooding Framework was developed to display the results. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that vulnerabilities and health risks of PLWHIV will increase in a disaster situation like flooding if access to HIV prevention, treatment, care and support are not addressed and ensured. The findings and

  12. A simple modeling approach to study the regional impact of a Mediterranean forest isoprene emission on anthropogenic plumes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cortinovis

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Research over the past year has outlined the importance of biogenic isoprene emission in tropospheric chemistry, and notably in the context of regional ozone photo-oxidant pollution. The first part of this article deals with the development of a simple isoprene emission scheme based upon the classical Guenther's algorithm coupled with a soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer model. The resulting emission scheme is tested in a "stand-alone" version at the canopy scale. Experimental data sets coming from Boreal, Tropical, Temperate and Mediterranean ecosystems are used to estimate the robustness of the scheme over contrasted climatic and ecological conditions. Considering the simple hypothesis used, simulated isoprene fluxes are generally consistent with field measurements and the emission scheme is thus deemed suitable for regional application. Limitations of the model are outlined as well as further improvements. In the second part of the article, the emission scheme is used on line in the broader context of a meso-scale atmospheric chemistry scheme. Dynamically idealized simulations are carried out to study the chemical interactions of pollutant plumes with realistic isoprene emissions coming from a Mediterranean oak forest. Two chemical scenarios are considered with anthropogenic emissions, respectively representative of the Marseille (urban and Martigues (industrial French Mediterranean areas. For the Marseille scenario, the impact of biogenic emission on ozone production is larger when the forest is situated in a sub-urban configuration (i.e. downwind distance TOWN-FOREST <30 km and decrease quite rapidly as the distance increases. For the Martigues scenario, the biogenic impact on the plume is detectable even at a longer TOWN-FOREST distance of 100 km. For both cases, the importance of the VOC/NOx ratio, which characterizes the aging of advected pollutant plumes over the day, is outlined. Finally, possible applications of this

  13. Regional impact assessment of land use scenarios in developing countries using the FoPIA approach: Findings from five case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    König, H.J.; Uthes, S.; Schuler, J.; Zhen, L.; Purushothaman, S.; Suarma, U.; Sghaier, M.; Makokha, S.; Helming, K.; Sieber, S.; Chen, L.; Brouwer, F.M.; Morris, J.; Wiggering, H.

    2013-01-01

    The impact of land use changes on sustainable development is of increasing interest in many regions of the world. This study aimed to test the transferability of the Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA), which was originally developed in the European context, to developing countries

  14. Impacts of different cumulus physics over south Asia region with case study tropical cyclone Viyaru

    CERN Document Server

    Fahad, Abdullah Al

    2015-01-01

    Tropical Cyclone Viyaru, formerly known as Cyclonic Storm Mahasen was a rapidly intensifying, category 01B storm that made landfall in Chittagong, Bangladesh on the 16th of May, 2013. In this study, the sensitivity of numerical simulations of tropical cyclone to cumulus physics parametrization is carried out with a view to determine the best cumulus physics option for prediction of the cyclones track, timing, and central pressure evolution in the Bay of Bengal. For this purpose, the tropical cyclone Viyaru has been simulated by WRF ARW in a nested domain with NCEP Global Final Analysis(FNL) data as initial and boundary conditions. The model domain consists of one parent domain and one nested domain. The resolution of the parent domain is 36 km while the nested domain has a resolution of 12 km. Five numerical simulations have been done with the same micro-physics scheme (WSM3), planetary boundary layer scheme,NOAH land surface scheme but different Cumulus Parametrization scheme. Four cumulus Parametrization sc...

  15. A Numerical Simulation Study of Impacts of Historical Land-Use Changes on the Regional Climate in China Since 1700

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Qiaoping; DING Yihui; DONG Wenjie

    2007-01-01

    By using the improved regional climate model (BCC_RegCM1.0), a series of modeling experiments are undertaken to investigate the impacts of historical land-use changes (LUCs) on the regional climate in China.Simulations are conducted for 2 years using estimated land-use for 1700, 1800, 1900, 1950, and 1990. The conversion of land cover in these periods was extensive over China, where large areas were altered from forests to either grass or crops, or from grasslands to crops. Results show that, since 1700, historical LUCs have significant effects on regional climate change, with rainfall increasing in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, Northwest China, and Northeast China, but decreasing by different degrees in other regions. The air temperature shows significant warming over large areas in recent hundred years,especially from 1950 to 1990, which is consistent with the warming caused by increasing greenhouse gases.On the other hand, historical LUCs have obvious effects on mean circulation, with the East Asian winter and summer monsoonal flows becoming more intensive, which is mainly attributed to the amplified temperature difference between ocean and land due to vegetation change. Thus, it would be given more attention to the impacts of LUCs on regional climate change.

  16. A new WRF-Chem treatment for studying regional scale impacts of cloud-aerosol interactions in parameterized cumuli

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, L. K.; Shrivastava, M.; Easter, R. C.; Fast, J. D.; Chapman, E. G.; Liu, Y.

    2014-04-01

    A new treatment of cloud-aerosol interactions within parameterized shallow and deep convection has been implemented in WRF-Chem that can be used to better understand the aerosol lifecycle over regional to synoptic scales. The modifications to the model to represent cloud-aerosol interactions include treatment of the cloud droplet number mixing ratio; key cloud microphysical and macrophysical parameters (including the updraft fractional area, updraft and downdraft mass fluxes, and entrainment) averaged over the population of shallow clouds, or a single deep convective cloud; and vertical transport, activation/resuspension, aqueous chemistry, and wet removal of aerosol and trace gases in warm clouds. These changes have been implemented in both the WRF-Chem chemistry packages as well as the Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization that has been modified to better represent shallow convective clouds. Preliminary testing of the modified WRF-Chem has been completed using observations from the Cumulus Humilis Aerosol Processing Study (CHAPS) as well as a high-resolution simulation that does not include parameterized convection. The simulation results are used to investigate the impact of cloud-aerosol interactions on regional scale transport of black carbon (BC), organic aerosol (OA), and sulfate aerosol. Based on the simulations presented here, changes in the column integrated BC can be as large as -50% when cloud-aerosol interactions are considered (due largely to wet removal), or as large as +40% for sulfate in non-precipitating conditions due to the sulfate production in the parameterized clouds. The modifications to WRF-Chem version 3.2.1 are found to account for changes in the cloud drop number concentration (CDNC) and changes in the chemical composition of cloud-drop residuals in a way that is consistent with observations collected during CHAPS. Efforts are currently underway to port the changes described here to WRF-Chem version 3.5, and it is anticipated that they

  17. Regional projection of climate impact indices over the Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casanueva, Ana; Frías, M.; Dolores; Herrera, Sixto; Bedia, Joaquín; San Martín, Daniel; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Zaninovic, Ksenija

    2014-05-01

    Climate Impact Indices (CIIs) are being increasingly used in different socioeconomic sectors to transfer information about climate change impacts and risks to stakeholders. CIIs are typically based on different weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, precipitation or humidity and comprise, in a single index, the relevant meteorological information for the particular impact sector (in this study wildfires and tourism). This dependence on several climate variables poses important limitations to the application of statistical downscaling techniques, since physical consistency among variables is required in most cases to obtain reliable local projections. The present study assesses the suitability of the "direct" downscaling approach, in which the downscaling method is directly applied to the CII. In particular, for illustrative purposes, we consider two popular indices used in the wildfire and tourism sectors, the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), respectively. As an example, two case studies are analysed over two representative Mediterranean regions of interest for the EU CLIM-RUN project: continental Spain for the FWI and Croatia for the PET. Results obtained with this "direct" downscaling approach are similar to those found from the application of the statistical downscaling to the individual meteorological drivers prior to the index calculation ("component" downscaling) thus, a wider range of statistical downscaling methods could be used. As an illustration, future changes in both indices are projected by applying two direct statistical downscaling methods, analogs and linear regression, to the ECHAM5 model. Larger differences were found between the two direct statistical downscaling approaches than between the direct and the component approaches with a single downscaling method. While these examples focus on particular indices and Mediterranean regions of interest for CLIM-RUN stakeholders, the same study

  18. Study of the top quark production in complementary phase space regions and impact on PDFs in CMS

    CERN Document Server

    Krintiras, Georgios

    2017-01-01

    The first measurement of the top quark pair production cross section ($\\sigma_{\\rm{t}\\bar{\\rm{t}}}$) in proton-proton collisions at $\\sqrt{s} = 5.02$ TeV is reviewed. The data have been collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC and analyzed considering events with at least one charged lepton. The extraction of $\\sigma_{\\rm{t}\\bar{\\rm{t}}}$ can be used to constrain the gluon distribution function (PDF) at large longitudinal parton momentum fraction and to establish experimentally the relation between the top-quark mass as implemented in Monte-Carlo generators and the Lagrangian mass parameter. The impact of the measurement on the determination of the gluon PDF is illustrated through a quantum chromodynamic analysis at next-to-next-to-leading order and the result is furthermore put in context with other top quark measurements in different phase space regions. The measurement has paved the way for the first observation of top quark production in nuclear collisions and the subsequent study of modifications induc...

  19. Program plan for performing social impact assessment: a case study of coal development in the Powder River region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, M.; Greene, M.

    1976-06-01

    A program plan for conducting a social impact assessment for the Powder River Basin has been developed to provide guidelines for a comprehensive document; one that identifies the impacts as they are perceived by the affected communities and indicates how such information may best be used to manage adverse impacts. We have attempted to give a comprehensive overview of existing studies, resources, and descriptions of the potential methodologies that may be used in carrying out the impact assessment and in developing management strategies. Also, we briefly outlined the steps that should be included in the social impact assessment process. This outline and a flow diagram of the steps involved are a concise description of the suggested program plan.

  20. Program plan for performing social impact assessment: a case study of coal development in the Powder River region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, M.; Greene, M.

    1976-06-01

    A program plan for conducting a social impact assessment for the Powder River Basin has been developed to provide guidelines for a comprehensive document; one that identifies the impacts as they are perceived by the affected communities and indicates how such information may best be used to manage adverse impacts. We have attempted to give a comprehensive overview of existing studies, resources, and descriptions of the potential methodologies that may be used in carrying out the impact assessment and in developing management strategies. Also, we briefly outlined the steps that should be included in the social impact assessment process. This outline and a flow diagram of the steps involved are a concise description of the suggested program plan.

  1. Impact of source region on the δ18O signal in snow: A case study from Mount Wrangell Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Kent; Field, Robert; Benson, Carl

    2016-04-01

    The stable isotopic composition of water in ice cores is an important source of information on past climate variability. At its simplest level, the underlying assumption is that there is an empirical relationship between the normalized difference in the concentration for these stable isotopes and a specified local temperature at the ice core site. There are however non-local processes, such as a change in source region or a change in the atmospheric pathway, that can impact the stable isotope signal thereby complicating its use as a proxy for temperature. Here we investigate the importance of these non-local processes through the analysis of the synoptic-scale circulation during a snowfall event at the summit of Mount Wrangell, in south-central Alaska just to the east of the Gulf of Alaska. During this event there was, over a one-day period in which the local temperature was approximately constant, a change in δ18O that exceeded half that normally seen to occur between summer and winter in the region. As we shall show, this arose from a change in the source region, from the sub-tropical eastern Pacific to northeastern Asia for the snow that fell on Mount Wrangell during the event. The recognition that non-local processes play a role in the stable isotope record from the Gulf of Alaska region suggests that these records, in addition to a local temperature signal, also contain signals of large-scale modes of climate variability that impact the North Pacific region such as the Pacific North America teleconnection and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation.

  2. Impact of Argo Observation on the Regional Ocean Reanalysis of China Coastal Waters and Adjacent Seas: A Twin-Experiment Study

    OpenAIRE

    Caixia Shao; Lili Xuan; Yingzhi Cao; Xiaojian Cui; Siyu Gao

    2015-01-01

    A regional ocean reanalysis system of China coastal waters and adjacent seas, called CORA (China ocean reanalysis), has been recently developed at the National Marine Data and Information Service (NMDIS). In this study, based on CORA, the impact of Argo profiles on the regional reanalysis is evaluated using a twin-experiment approach. It is found that, by assimilating Argo observations, the reanalysis quality is much improved: the root mean square (RMS) error of temperature and salinity can b...

  3. How fault zones impact regional permeability and groundwater systems: insights from global database of fault zone studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scibek, J.; McKenzie, J. M.; Gleeson, T.

    2014-12-01

    Regional and continental scale groundwater flow models derive aquifer permeability distributions from datasets based on hydraulic tests and calibrated local and regional flow models, however, much of this data does not account for barrier/conduit effects of fault zones, local and regional geothermal flow cells, and other fault-controlled flow systems. In this study we researched and compiled fault zone permeability and conceptual permeability models in different geologic settings from published multidisciplinary literature (structural- and hydro-geology, engineering geology of tunnels and mines, and geothermal projects among others). The geospatial database focuses on data-rich regions such as North America, Europe, and Japan. Regionalization of the dominant conceptual models of fault zones was regionalized based on geological attributes and tested conceptually with simple numerical models, to help incorporate the effect of fault zones on regional to continental flow models. Results show that for large regional and continental scale flow modeling, the fault zone data can be generalized by geology to determine the relative importance of fault conduits vs fault barriers, which can be converted to effective anisotropy ratios for large scale flow, although local fault-controlled flow cells in rift zones require appropriate upscaling. The barrier/conduit properties of fault zones are present in all regions and rock types, and the barrier effect must be properly conceptualized in large scale flow models. The fault zone data from different geologic disciplines have different biases (e.g. outcrop studies, deep drillhole tests, tunnels, etc.) depending on scale of hydraulic tests. Finally, the calibrated recharge estimates for fault controlled flow systems may be lower than for unfaulted flow systems due to predominant barrier (regional anisotropy or permeability reduction), suggesting a "scaling effect" on recharge estimates.

  4. Regional profile, energy-impacted communities: Region VIII

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1979-03-01

    This report has data on population, administration, finance, housing, health and safety, human services, education, and water and sewage for 325 energy-impacted communities. A review of current and potential energy developments in the region shows over 900 energy resource impacts listed for the 325 impacted communities. Coal development represents over one-third of the developments listed. Communities reporting coal development are distributed as follows: Colorado (36), Montana (42), North Dakota (61), South Dakota (13), Utah (73), and Wyoming (35). Energy-conversion initiatives represent another high incidence of energy-resource impact, with uranium development following closely with 83 communities reporting uranium development impact in the region. These projections indicate continued development of regional energy resources to serve national energy requirements. The 325 impacted communities as reported: Colorado (46), Montana (73), North Dakota (62), South Dakota (21), Utah (80), and Wyoming (43) follow a distribution pattern similar to that of future projects which illustrates that no area of the region will escape the impacts of energy development. (ERA citation 04:041706)

  5. Agriculture Impacts of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Lili; Robock, Alan; Mills, Michael; Toon, Owen Brian

    2013-04-01

    One of the major consequences of nuclear war would be climate change due to massive smoke injection into the atmosphere. Smoke from burning cities can be lofted into the stratosphere where it will have an e-folding lifetime more than 5 years. The climate changes include significant cooling, reduction of solar radiation, and reduction of precipitation. Each of these changes can affect agricultural productivity. To investigate the response from a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, we used the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer agricultural simulation model. We first evaluated the model by forcing it with daily weather data and management practices in China and the USA for rice, maize, wheat, and soybeans. Then we perturbed observed weather data using monthly climate anomalies for a 10-year period due to a simulated 5 Tg soot injection that could result from a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, using a total of 100 15 kt atomic bombs, much less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal. We computed anomalies using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE and NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We perturbed each year of the observations with anomalies from each year of the 10-year nuclear war simulations. We found that different regions respond differently to a regional nuclear war; southern regions show slight increases of crop yields while in northern regions crop yields drop significantly. Sensitivity tests show that temperature changes due to nuclear war are more important than precipitation and solar radiation changes in affecting crop yields in the regions we studied. In total, crop production in China and the USA would decrease 15-50% averaged over the 10 years using both models' output. Simulations forced by ModelE output show smaller impacts than simulations forced by WACCM output at the end of the 10 year period because of the different temperature responses in the two models.

  6. Solar signal at regional scale: a study of possible solar impact upon cloud cover and associated climatic parameters in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sfica, Lucian; Iordache, Iulian; Voiculescu, Mirela

    2016-04-01

    consistent arguments for existing solar influence upon climate at global or hemispherical scale. Solar trademark was identified in pressure fields at tropospheric or stratospheric level, atmospheric circulation pattern, temperature variation or cloud cover, on different timescales. However, these are less clear at regional or local. In our study we try to investigate the solar impact upon the climate parameters on the level of Romanian territory. The ROCADA database (Bîrsan et al., 2014) was used for climate data for Romania. The database covers the 1961-2013 period for 9 climate parameters out of which we will focus on those which may help in understanding the cloud cover response to solar triggers: mean air temperature, maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, relative humidity, cloud cover, atmospheric pressure, precipitation amount and sunshine duration. The data base is downloadable on a gridded dataset at daily level with a spatial resolution of 0,1 degree. For solar data a couple of proxy solar data were selected from NASA daily database - omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov - concerning terrestrial magnetic field (BY, BZ), electric field (EF), solar wind speed (SW) or the more classical proxy of sunspots number. Climate Data Operator is used for extracting gridded data and ArcGis 10.3.1 and Qgis software packages for mapping the results. Data were statistically treated in order to eliminate the trend and the effect of seasonality. The results were organized for monthly, seasonal and yearly level. The methodology for detection of the solar signal on climate variables relies on interpreting the correlation maps between climate variables and solar proxies. Also, a composite analysis on the basis of separation of high and low solar activity at monthly level was performed. The main results leads to the idea that the solar signal can be detected primarly in the temporal variation of atmospheric pressure (positive correlation with solar wind speed), soil temperature

  7. Impact of Seasalt Deposition on Acid Soils in Maritime Regions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Zhen-Hua

    2003-01-01

    The characteristics of seasalt deposition and its impact on acid soils in maritime regions are reviewed. It is pointed out that studies involving the impact of seasalt deposition on acid soils have been concentrated on short-term effects on soil and water acidification. A deep consideration of long-term effects on soil acidification in maritime regions is still needed.

  8. Oil and gas impacts on air quality in federal lands in the Bakken region: an overview of the Bakken Air Quality Study and first results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prenni, A. J.; Day, D. E.; Evanoski-Cole, A. R.; Sive, B. C.; Hecobian, A.; Zhou, Y.; Gebhart, K. A.; Hand, J. L.; Sullivan, A. P.; Li, Y.; Schurman, M. I.; Desyaterik, Y.; Malm, W. C.; Collett, J. L., Jr.; Schichtel, B. A.

    2016-02-01

    The Bakken formation contains billions of barrels of oil and gas trapped in rock and shale. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing methods have allowed for extraction of these resources, leading to exponential growth of oil production in the region over the past decade. Along with this development has come an increase in associated emissions to the atmosphere. Concern about potential impacts of these emissions on federal lands in the region prompted the National Park Service to sponsor the Bakken Air Quality Study over two winters in 2013-2014. Here we provide an overview of the study and present some initial results aimed at better understanding the impact of local oil and gas emissions on regional air quality. Data from the study, along with long-term monitoring data, suggest that while power plants are still an important emissions source in the region, emissions from oil and gas activities are impacting ambient concentrations of nitrogen oxides and black carbon and may dominate recent observed trends in pollutant concentrations at some of the study sites. Measurements of volatile organic compounds also definitively show that oil and gas emissions were present in almost every air mass sampled over a period of more than 4 months.

  9. Oil and gas impacts on air quality in federal lands in the Bakken region: an overview of the Bakken Air Quality Study and first results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Prenni

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The Bakken formation contains billions of barrels of oil and gas trapped in rock and shale. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing methods have allowed for extraction of these resources, leading to exponential growth of oil production in the region over the past decade. Along with this development has come an increase in associated emissions to the atmosphere. Concern about potential impacts of these emissions on federal lands in the region prompted the National Park Service to sponsor the Bakken Air Quality Study over two winters in 2013–2014. Here we provide an overview of the study and present some initial results aimed at better understanding the impact of local oil and gas emissions on regional air quality. Data from the study, along with long term monitoring data, suggest that while power plants are still an important emissions source in the region, emissions from oil and gas activities are impacting ambient concentrations of nitrogen oxides and black carbon and may dominate recent observed trends in pollutant concentrations at some of the study sites. Measurements of volatile organic compounds also definitively show that oil and gas emissions were present in almost every air mass sampled over a period of more than four months.

  10. Impact of Argo Observation on the Regional Ocean Reanalysis of China Coastal Waters and Adjacent Seas: A Twin-Experiment Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caixia Shao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A regional ocean reanalysis system of China coastal waters and adjacent seas, called CORA (China ocean reanalysis, has been recently developed at the National Marine Data and Information Service (NMDIS. In this study, based on CORA, the impact of Argo profiles on the regional reanalysis is evaluated using a twin-experiment approach. It is found that, by assimilating Argo observations, the reanalysis quality is much improved: the root mean square (RMS error of temperature and salinity can be further reduced by about 10% and the RMS error of current can be further reduced by 18%, compared to the case only assimilating conventional in situ temperature and salinity observations. Consistent with the unique feature of Argo observations, the temperature is improved in all levels and the largest improvement of salinity happens in the deep ocean. Argo profile data have a significant impact on the regional ocean reanalysis through improvements of both hydrographic and dynamic fields.

  11. Impact of Hurricane Ivan on the regional longleaf pine growth study: is there a relation to site or stand conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    John S. Kush; John C. Gilbert

    2010-01-01

    The US Forest Service Regional Longleaf Pine Growth Study (RLGS) began its eighth re-measurement (40th year) during 2004 autumn. The study has 305 plots of which 171 plots are located on the Escambia Experimental Forest (EEF) in Brewton AL. EEF is operated by the U.S. Forest Service in cooperation with the T.R. Miller Mill Company. The RLGS has plots distributed across...

  12. Impact of wildfires on regional air pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    We examine the impact of wildfires and agricultural/prescribed burning on regional air pollution and Air Quality Index (AQI) between 2006 and 2013. We define daily regional air pollution using monitoring sites for ozone (n=1595), PM2.5 collected by Federal Reference Method (n=10...

  13. Regional impacts of abolishing direct payments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uthes, Sandra; Priorr, Annette; Zander, Peter

    2011-01-01

    The direct payment system of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) provides income transfers to European farmers. Recently, several countries including England and Sweden have advocated the elimination of direct payments after 2013. The extent to which an elimination of direct payments would affect...... the impacts of such a policy change on farm structures and land use intensities in four European regions located in Germany, Denmark, Italy and Poland, each with different socio-economic and biophysical characteristics. In each region, the entire farm population consisting of different farm types......, greatly influence the impact of direct support elimination and cause regionally different development trends. The results for the four regions were summarized in four specific storylines that emphasize how much the diversity of European regions matters for future policy decisions. An explicitly regional...

  14. Sustainable regional development and natural hazard impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrova, Elena; Svetlosanov, Vladimir; Kudin, Valery

    2016-04-01

    During the last decades, natural hazard impacts on social and economic development in many countries were increasing due to the expansion of human activities into the areas prone to natural risks as well as to increasing in number and severity of natural hazardous events caused by climate changes and other natural phenomena. The escalation of severe disasters (such as Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan 2011) triggered by natural hazards and related natural-technological and environmental events is increasingly threatening sustainable development at different levels from regional to global scale. In our study, we develop a model of ecological, economic and social sustainable development for the European part of Russia and the Republic of Belarus. The model consists of six blocks including 1) population, 2) environment, 3) mineral resources, 4) geographic space, 5) investments, and 6) food production and import. These blocks were created based on the analysis of the main processes at the regional level; all the blocks are closely interrelated between each other. Reaching the limit values of block parameters corresponds to a sharp deterioration of the system; as a result, the system can lose its stability. Aggravation of natural and natural-technological risk impacts on each block and should be taken into account in the model of regional development. Natural hazards can cause both strong influences and small but permanent perturbations. In both cases, a system can become unstable. The criterion for sustainable development is proposed. The Russian Foundation for Humanities and Belorussian Republican Foundation for Fundamental Research supported the study (project 15-22-01008).

  15. Using Multi-Criteria Analysis for the Study of Human Impact on Agro-Forestry Ecosystem in the Region of Khenchela (algeria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouzekri, A.; Benmessaoud, H.

    2016-06-01

    The objective of this work is to study and analyze the human impact on agro-forestry-pastoral ecosystem of Khenchela region through the application of multi-criteria analysis methods to integrate geographic information systems, our methodology is based on a weighted linear combination of information on four criteria chosen in our analysis representative in the vicinity of variables in relation to roads, urban areas, water resources and agricultural space, the results shows the effect of urbanization and socio-economic activity on the degradation of the physical environment and found that 32% of the total area are very sensitive to human impact.

  16. Technology utilization in a non-urban region: Further impact and technique of the Technology Use Studies Center, 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gold, H. C. (Editor); Moore, A. M.; Dodd, B.; Dittmar, V.

    1971-01-01

    The clientele served by the Technology Use Studies Center (TUSC) is updated. Manufacturing leads the list of client firms. The standard industrial classification (SIC) range of these firms is broad. Substantial numbers of college and university faculties are using TUSC services. Field operations inherent in the functions of dissemination and assistance are reviewed. Increasing emphasis among clientele is on environmental concerns and management. A record is provided of the institutions contacted and the extent of TUSC involvement with them, as well as TUSC's cooperation with agencies and organizations. The impact of TUSC and the NASA-sponsored Technology Utilization Program on other public agencies is discussed.

  17. Impact Of Landslides Along Road Network And Direct Cost Estimation: A Case Study In Marche Region, Central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvati, P.; Donnini, M.; Guzzetti, F.; Ardizzone, F.; Cardinali, M.; Bucci, F.; Fiorucci, F.; Alvioli, M.; Santangelo, M.

    2014-12-01

    In November and December 2013, the Marche region (Central Italy) was hit by three severe, but not rare, meteorological events. The maximum value of the three days cumulative rainfall (499 mm) was recorded at the rain gauge of Pintura di Bolognola. The intense rainfall caused floods along the rivers and triggered numerous landslides, mostly located in the hilly and mountainous terrain of the region. The territory is crossed by a large number of roads connecting small rural settlements. After the events, the Regional Civil Protection Office requested to the Research Institute for the geo-hydrological Protection (IRPI-CNR) a technical support to evaluate the hazard condition for different sites affected by landslides. For an area of approximately 200 km2, in the Municipalities of Acquasanta Terme and Roccafluvione, field surveys were carried out to identify the rainfall-induced landslides and to produce an event inventory map. More than 1,500 slope failures were mapped including earth flows, slide-earth flows, slides, rock-falls and complex slides. Field surveys were focused also to estimate qualitatively damages along the roads. Roads were classified in two classes: the main roads under the State responsibility and the secondary roads under the Municipality responsibility. The different types of damage were classified in three classes: i) aesthetic (minor), where the road functionality was not compromised; ii) functional (medium), where the functionality was compromised and iii) structural (severe) where roads are severely or completely damaged. Immediately after the event, the technicians of the Municipalities of Acquasanta Terme and Roccafluvione spent major efforts to partially restore the functionality of the secondary roads in order to guarantee the primary human needs. In the following ten days, they compiled a list of interventions, associated with the relative direct costs, aimed to the total restoration of the roads functionality. In collaboration with the

  18. The impact of weather conditions on Culex pipiens and Culex restuans (Diptera: Culicidae) abundance: a case study in Peel Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiafeng; Ogden, Nick H; Zhu, Huaiping

    2011-03-01

    Mosquito populations are sensitive to long-term variations in climate and short-term variations in weather. Mosquito abundance is a key determinant of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases, such as West Nile virus (WNV). In this work, the short-term impact of weather conditions (temperature and precipitation) on Culex pipiens L.-Culex restuans Theobald mosquito abundance in Peel Region, Ontario, Canada, was investigated using the 2002-2009 mosquito data collected from the WNV surveillance program managed by Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care and a gamma-generalized linear model. There was a clear association between weather conditions (temperature and precipitation) and mosquito abundance, which allowed the definition of threshold criteria for temperature and precipitation conditions for mosquito population growth. A predictive statistical model for mosquito population based on weather conditions was calibrated using real weather and mosquito surveillance data, and validated using a subset of surveillance data. Results showed that WNV vector abundance on any one day could be predicted with reasonable accuracy from relationships with mean degree-days >9 degrees C over the 11 preceding days, and precipitation 35 d previously. This finding provides optimism for the development of weather-generated forecasting for WNV risk that could be used in decision support systems for interventions such as mosquito control.

  19. Evaluation of the impact of serogroup C meningococcal disease vaccination program in Brazil and its regions: a population-based study, 2001-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moraes, Camile; de Moraes, José Cássio; da Silva, Gabriela Drummond Marques; Duarte, Elisabeth Carmen

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND Meningococcal C conjugate (MenC) vaccine was introduced as part of the Brazilian National Immunisation Program in 2010 for children < 1 year of age. OBJECTIVES The study objective was to evaluate the impact of this vaccination strategy. METHODS An observational, mixed ecological and analytical study was conducted, based on time series panel data from surveillance records (2001-2013). FINDINGS A total of 37,538 of meningococcal disease cases were recorded during the study period. Of these, 19,997 were attributed to serogroup C. A decrease in meningococcal disease serogroup C (MDC) incidence among children aged < 1 year [65.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 20.5-84.7%] and 1-4 years (46.9%; 95%CI: 14.6-79.1%) were found in the three years following vaccination introduction. Vaccination impact on the reduction of MDC incidence varied from 83.7% (95%CI: 51.1-100.0%) in the Midwest region to 56.7% (95%CI: 37.4-76.0%) in the Northeast region. MAIN CONCLUSIONS Vaccination against MDC in Brazil had a positive impact on the population of children aged < 1 year, across all regions, and on the 1-4 year-old cohort. Nevertheless, in our view there is scope for improving the vaccination strategy adopted in Brazil. PMID:28327788

  20. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, J. A.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is projected to have substantial impacts in the Great Lakes region of the United States. One intent of this presentation is to introduce the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center (GLISA), a recently-funded NOAA RISA center. The goals and unique organizational structure of GLISA will be described along with core activities that support impact and assessment studies in the region. Additionally, observed trends in temperature, precipitation including lake effect snowfall, and lake temperatures and ice cover will be summarized for the Great Lakes region, and vulnerabilities to, and potential impacts of, climate change will be surveyed for critical natural and human systems. These include forest ecosystems, water resources, traditional and specialized agriculture, and tourism/recreation. Impacts and vulnerabilities unique to the Great Lakes region are emphasized.

  1. Technology utilization in a non-urban region: Further impact and technique of the Technology Use Studies Center (6)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gold, H. C.; Moore, A. M.; Dodd, B.; West, S. G.

    1976-01-01

    The activities of the TU Center are reported. Areas reported include: TUSC clientele informaton, dissemination and assistance, faculty information service, and cooperation with other agencies. The general aviation news letter is included along with transfer and impact reports.

  2. The impact of deforestation on the hydrological cycle in the western Mediterranean: an ensemble study with two regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaertner, M.A.; Gallardo, C. [Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo (Spain); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prego, J.A.; Castro, M. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain); Polcher, J. [Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

    2001-08-01

    A deforestation experiment is performed over the western Mediterranean, applying two different RCMs with differing domains and an ensemble technique to obtain a measure of their internal variability. The internal variability is used to assign statistical significance to the results, and also to discuss whether the models are sufficiently free to develop internal mesoscale processes. Considerable internal variability values found for hydrological variables even in autumn and winter seem to support the assumption that the models are free enough to be applied to such a sensitivity study. The combined use of two models, with strongly differing domains, and significance assigned through the use of internal variability should highlight responses to deforestation which are of physical origin and not a result dependent on one particular model. The overall significant response from both RCMs to deforestation is a reduction of evaporation (spring and summer, extending over the whole deforested zone) and a decrease in precipitation (late spring and summer, over some regions). A detailed analysis over subzones shows remarkable agreement between the two models over some of these subzones, showing non-local effects in precipitation response. (orig.)

  3. Impact of Future Climate Change on Regional Crop Water Requirement—A Case Study of Hetao Irrigation District, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianwa Zhou

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Water shortage is a limiting factor for agricultural production in China, and climate change will affect agricultural water use. Studying the effects of climate change on crop irrigation requirement (CIR would help to tackle climate change, from both food security and sustainable water resource use perspectives. This paper applied SDSM (Statistical DownScaling Model to simulate future meteorological parameters in the Hetao irrigation district (HID in the time periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, and used the Penman–Monteith equation to calculate reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0, which was further used to calculate crop evapotranspiration (ETc and crop water requirement (CWR. CWR and predicted future precipitation were used to calculate CIR. The results show that the climate in the HID will become warmer and wetter; ET0 would would increase by 4% to 7%; ETc and CWR have the same trend as ET0, but different crops have different increase rates. CIR would increase because of the coefficient of the increase of CWR and the decrease of effective precipitation. Based on the current growing area, the CIR would increase by 198 × 106 to 242 × 106 m3 by the year 2041–2070, and by 342 × 106 to 456 × 106 m3 by the years 2071–2099 respectively. Future climate change will bring greater challenges to regional agricultural water use.

  4. Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment of forests in the Indian Western Himalayan region: A case study of Himachal Pradesh, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujata Upgupta

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment at state and regional levels is necessary to develop adaptation strategies for forests in the biogeographically vital Himalayan region. The present study assesses forest ecosystem vulnerability to climate change across Himachal Pradesh and presents the priority districts for vulnerability reduction under ‘current climate’ and ‘future climate’ scenarios. Vulnerability of forests under ‘current climate’ scenario is assessed by adopting indicator-based approach, while the vulnerability under ‘future climate’ scenario is assessed using climate and vegetation impact models. Based on the vulnerability index estimated to present the vulnerability of forests under current and projected climate change impacts representing climate driven vulnerability, five districts – Chamba, Kangra, Kullu, Mandi and Shimla are identified as priority forest districts for adaptation planning. Identifying vulnerable forest districts and forests will help policy makers and forest managers to prioritize resource allocation and forest management interventions, to restore health and productivity of forests and to build long-term resilience to climate change.

  5. The regional environmental impact of biomass production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, R.L.

    1994-09-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a broad overview of the potential environmental impacts of biomass energy from energy crops. The subject is complex because the environmental impact of using biomass for energy must be considered in the context of alternative energy options while the environmental impact of producing biomass from energy crops must be considered in the context of the alternative land-uses. Using biomass-derived energy can reduce greenhouse gas emissions or increase them; growing biomass energy crops can enhance soil fertility or degrade it. Without knowing the context of the biomass energy, one can say little about its specific environmental impacts. The primary focus of this paper is an evaluation of the environmental impacts of growing energy crops. I present an approach for quantitatively evaluating the potential environmental impact of growing energy crops at a regional scale that accounts for the environmental and economic context of the crops. However, to set the stage for this discussion, I begin by comparing the environmental advantages and disadvantages of biomass-derived energy relative to other energy alternatives such as coal, hydropower, nuclear power, oil/gasoline, natural gas and photovoltaics.

  6. In situ study of the impact of inter- and intra-reader variability on region of interest (ROI) analysis in preclinical molecular imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habte, Frezghi; Budhiraja, Shradha; Keren, Shay; Doyle, Timothy C; Levin, Craig S; Paik, David S

    2013-01-01

    We estimated reader-dependent variability of region of interest (ROI) analysis and evaluated its impact on preclinical quantitative molecular imaging. To estimate reader variability, we used five independent image datasets acquired each using microPET and multispectral fluorescence imaging (MSFI). We also selected ten experienced researchers who utilize molecular imaging in the same environment that they typically perform their own studies. Nine investigators blinded to the data type completed the ROI analysis by drawing ROIs manually that delineate the tumor regions to the best of their knowledge and repeated the measurements three times, non-consecutively. Extracted mean intensities of voxels within each ROI are used to compute the coefficient of variation (CV) and characterize the inter- and intra-reader variability. The impact of variability was assessed through random samples iterated from normal distributions for control and experimental groups on hypothesis testing and computing statistical power by varying subject size, measured difference between groups and CV. The results indicate that inter-reader variability was 22.5% for microPET and 72.2% for MSFI. Additionally, mean intra-reader variability was 10.1% for microPET and 26.4% for MSFI. Repeated statistical testing showed that a total variability of CV readers, which may adversely affect statistical power and erroneously lead to negative study outcomes.

  7. Analytical Studies on the Quality and Environmental Impact of Commercial Motor Gasoline Available in Multan Region of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghulam Yasin

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Physico-chemical characteristics such as specific gravity, reid vapour pressure, copper corrosion, distillation (I.B.P., F.B.P., Total recovery & residue and hydrocarbon contents (saturates, aromatics and polars of gasoline of different oil marketing companies collected from retail outlets in district Multan have been analysed using standard ASTM procedures. Results have been compared with the Pakistani, Indian and European specifications to assess the quality of Pakistani gasoline (petrol. The environmental impact of gasoline has also been assessed.

  8. Impact assessment of various parameters polluting Ganga water in Kolkata Region: a study for quality evaluation and environmental implication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purkait, Swarnali; Ganguly, Madhumita; Aktar, Wasim; Sengupta, Doipayan; Chowdhury, Ashim

    2009-08-01

    The quality of sewage-sludge samples obtained in Kolkata region was evaluated. Both sewage water and sludge components were analyzed for a number of physico-chemical, microbiological parameters using standard laboratory procedures, some heavy metals by AAS method and pesticide contents by GC method. Some of the physical and chemical constituents of the samples are within the allowable levels while the rest are not. The samples are rich in nutrients and have suitable pH for agricultural uses. In terms of Electrical Conductivity and Sodium Adsorption Ratio, sewage water is not suitable for irrigation. Fecal and coliform bacterial population is high in all samples. Pesticide and heavy metals in some places are alarming. So sewage-sludge produced in Kolkata cannot be used for agricultural purpose without any treatment. Thus proper care, maintenance, treatment and disposal of sewage water and sludge are most vital and should be the prime thrust for the nation.

  9. Organizing medical oncology care at a regional level and its subsequent impact on the quality of early breast cancer management: a before-after study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voidey, Aline; Pivot, Xavier; Woronoff, Anne-Sophie; Nallet, Gilles; Cals, Laurent; Schwetterle, Francis; Limat, Samuel

    2014-07-28

    One of the main measures of the French national cancer plan is to encourage physicians to work collectively, and to minimize territorial inequities in access to care by rethinking the geographical distribution of oncologists. For this reason, cancer care services are currently being reorganized at national level. A new infrastructure for multidisciplinary cancer care delivery has been put in place in our region. Patients can receive multidisciplinary health care services nearer their homes, thanks to a mobile team of oncologists. The objective of our study was to assess, using a quality approach, the impact on medical management and on the costs of treating early breast cancer, of the new regional structure for cancer care delivery. Before-and-after study performed from 2007 to 2010, including patients treated for early breast cancer in three hospitals in the region of Franche-Comté in Eastern France. The main outcome measures were quality criteria, namely delayed treatment (>12 weeks), dose-intensity and assessment of adjuvant chemotherapy. Other outcomes were 24-month progression-free survival (PFS) and economic evaluation. This study included 667 patients. The rate of chemotherapy tended to decrease, but not significantly (49.3% before versus 42.2% after, p=0.07), while the use of taxanes increased by 38% across all centres (59.6% before versus 98.0% after, p organization put in place in our region for the provision of care for early breast cancer makes it possible to maintain local community-based treatment, without negative economic consequences. This new structure for cancer care delivery offers cancer services of similar quality with no modification of 24-month PFS in early breast cancer.

  10. Drought impact assessment from monitoring the seasonality of vegetation condition using long-term time-series satellite images: a case study of Mt. Kenya region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Youngkeun; Njoroge, John B; Morimoto, Yukihiro

    2013-05-01

    Drought-induced anomalies in vegetation condition over wide areas can be observed by using time-series satellite remote sensing data. Previous methods to assess the anomalies may include limitations in considering (1) the seasonality in terms of each vegetation-cover type, (2) cumulative damage during the drought event, and (3) the application to various types of land cover. This study proposed an improved methodology to assess drought impact from the annual vegetation responses, and discussed the result in terms of diverse landscape mosaics in the Mt. Kenya region (0.4° N 35.8° E ~ 1.6° S 38.4° E). From the 30-year annual rainfall records at the six meteorological stations in the study area, we identified 2000 as the drought year and 2001, 2004, and 2007 as the normal precipitation years. The time-series profiles of vegetation condition in the drought and normal precipitation years were obtained from the values of Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI; Huete et al. 2002), which were acquired from Terra MODIS remote sensing dataset (MOD13Q1) taken every 16 days at the scale of 250-m spatial resolution. The drought impact was determined by integrating the annual differences in EVI profiles between drought and normal conditions, per pixel based on nearly same day of year. As a result, we successfully described the distribution of landscape vulnerability to drought, considering the seasonality of each vegetation-cover type at every MODIS pixel. This result will contribute to the large-scale landscape management of Mt. Kenya region. Future study should improve this method by considering land-use change occurred during the long-term monitoring period.

  11. Climate services for the assessment of climate change impacts and risks in coastal areas at the regional scale: the North Adriatic case study (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Torresan, Silvia; Giannini, Valentina; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio; Giorgi, Filippo; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. Specifically, the participative approach was carried out by means of two local workshops and trough the administration of a questionnaire related to climate information and services. The results of the process allowed identifying three major themes of interest for local stakeholders (i.e. hydro-climatic regime, coastal and marine environment, agriculture) and their preferences concerning key climate variables (e.g. extreme events, sea-level, wave height), mid-term temporal projections (i.e. for the next 30-40 years) and medium-high spatial resolution (i.e. from 1 to 50 km). Furthermore, the workshops highlighted stakeholder concern about several climate-related impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surge, droughts) and vulnerable receptors (e.g. beaches, wetlands, agricultural areas) to be considered in vulnerability and risk assessment studies for the North Adriatic coastal zones. This information was used by climate and environmental risk experts in order to develop targeted climate information and

  12. Technology utilization in a non-urban region: Further impact and technique of the Technology Use Studies Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    Updated information is given pertaining to Technology Use Studies Center (TUSC) clients who are those that receive/use information as disseminated by the center. The client information is presented as a continuation of client data as set forth in the center's previous annual report.

  13. Assessment of the impact of the social reproduction process on economic development of the region (case study of the Sverdlovsk Oblast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Aleksandrovich Tatarkin

    2014-09-01

    maintenance of social processes can be considered from different sides: from the perspective of revenue dynamics and patterns of goods and services consumption, including social; from the perspective of the influence of social processes on the economic development of the region; from the perspective of the efficiency of socially oriented budget expenditures. The authors have studied the effect of social expenditures on GRP of the Sverdlovsk Oblast on the basis of the 2011 data. Budget expenditures include financing of budgetary institutions of the social sphere from federal, regional and local budgets. The research has revealed that in the Sverdlovsk Oblast in 2011 one ruble of social budget expenditures from all sources (federal, regional and municipal was equal to 65 kopecks of GRP. Thus, the study has clearly showed that budget expenditures on social services have not only a social, but also significant economic impact on the region’s development

  14. Study on Soil Infiltration Capability and Its Impact Factors of Different Land-use Types in Purple Soil Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bin MO; Xiaoyan CHEN; Tao LIU; Yicui YANG; Zhixing LIN; Xiufeng HUANG; Qiliang HUANG; Hui JIAN; Tujin ZHOU; Yunkang SHEN

    2016-01-01

    Soil infiltration capability is the hot spot topic of soil erosion studies and soil physical and chemical properties have great influence on it. A new infiltration method point- source infiltration method was used to precisely evaluate the infiltration capability in different purple soil land- use types. And correlation analysis on soil physical and chemical properties and soil infiltration capability of different land- use types was performed. Results showed that:( i) there is a large difference among soil physical and chemical properties in different land- use types,soil water content,non- capillary porosity,capillary porosity,content of > 0. 25 mm aggregates and organic matter content in the top soil are greater than those in the subsoil;( ii) soil infiltration capability showed differences among different land- use types. Land use showed great effects,in general,the order of decrease on initial infiltration rate and average infiltration rate was: woodland slope > slope farmland >grassland,the order of decrease on steady infiltration rate was: slope farmland > woodland > grassland and the time reaching stable state was:slope farmland > woodland > grassland;( iii) correlation analysis showed that there was a significantly positive correlation between initial infiltration rate and wet sieve MWD value and structural damage rate,and it had a significantly negative correlation with capillary porosity;( iv)steady infiltration rate and non- capillary porosity showed the significantly positive correlation,and it had a significantly negative correlation with the soil bulk density;( v) the average infiltration rate and non- capillary porosity and structural damage rate showed a positive correlation and the correlation coefficient was large and there was a negative correlation between average infiltration rate and soil bulk density and capillary porosity,and the absolute value of correlation coefficient was relatively large. The results of this study can provide the

  15. Radiation Balance of Urban Materials and Their Thermal Impact in Semi-Desert Region: Mexicali, México Study Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Néstor Santillán-Soto

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Net radiation is an essential forcing of climate in the lower layers of Earth’s atmosphere. In this paper, radiation balance is measured in clay soil and green grass, and is compared with three urban materials. These materials: asphalt, concrete and white painted elastomeric polystyrene roofing sheet are widely used in Mexicali, Baja California, México. This study was carried out during August of 2011, the hottest time of the year. The 24-hour average values of net radiation found were: 137.2 W·m−2 for asphalt, 119.1 for concrete, 104.6 for clay soil, 152 for green grass and 29.2 for the polystyrene insulation. The latter two types of materials are likely to be the most effective in reducing urban heat island effects. This variation in the radiation balance has widespread implications for human living conditions, as land cover change tends to be towards surfaces that have higher levels of net radiation.

  16. Water, Air Emissions, and Cost Impacts of Air-Cooled Microturbines for Combined Cooling, Heating, and Power Systems: A Case Study in the Atlanta Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Ann James

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The increasing pace of urbanization means that cities and global organizations are looking for ways to increase energy efficiency and reduce emissions. Combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP systems have the potential to improve the energy generation efficiency of a city or urban region by providing energy for heating, cooling, and electricity simultaneously. The purpose of this study is to estimate the water consumption for energy generation use, carbon dioxide (CO2 and NOx emissions, and economic impact of implementing CCHP systems for five generic building types within the Atlanta metropolitan region, under various operational scenarios following the building thermal (heating and cooling demands. Operating the CCHP system to follow the hourly thermal demand reduces CO2 emissions for most building types both with and without net metering. The system can be economically beneficial for all building types depending on the price of natural gas, the implementation of net metering, and the cost structure assumed for the CCHP system. The greatest reduction in water consumption for energy production and NOx emissions occurs when there is net metering and when the system is operated to meet the maximum yearly thermal demand, although this scenario also results in an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and, in some cases, cost. CCHP systems are more economical for medium office, large office, and multifamily residential buildings.

  17. Economic impacts study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunsen, W.; Worley, W.; Frost, E.

    1988-09-30

    This is a progress report on the first phase of a project to measure the economic impacts of a rapidly changing U.S. target base. The purpose of the first phase is to designate and test the macroeconomic impact analysis model. Criteria were established for a decision-support model. Additional criteria were defined for an interactive macroeconomic impact analysis model. After a review of several models, the Economic Impact Forecast System model of the U.S. Army Construction Research Laboratory was selected as the appropriate input-output tool that can address local and regional economic analysis. The model was applied to five test cases to demonstrate its utility and define possible revisions to meet project criteria. A plan for EIFS access was defined at three levels. Objectives and tasks for scenario refinement are proposed.

  18. Do we need to account for scenarios of land use/land cover changes in regional climate modeling and impact studies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strada, Susanna; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Perrin, Mathieu; Stefanon, Marc

    2016-04-01

    By modifying the Earth's natural landscapes, humans have introduced an imbalance in the Earth System's energy, water and emission fluxes via land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs). Through land-atmosphere interactions, LULCCs influence weather, air quality and climate at different scales, from regional/local (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global (a few hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Therefore, in the context of climate change, LULCCs will play a role locally/regionally in altering weather/atmospheric conditions. In addition to the global climate change impacts, LULCCs will possibly induce further changes in the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and thereby affect adaptation strategies. If LULCCs influence weather/atmospheric conditions, could land use planning alter climate conditions and ease the impact of climate change by wisely shaping urban and rural landscapes? Nowadays, numerical land-atmosphere modelling allows to assess LULCC impacts at different scales (e.g., Marshall et al., 2003; de Noblet-Ducoudré et al., 2011). However, most scenarios of climate changes used to force impact models result from downscaling procedures that do not account for LULCCs (e.g., Jacob et al., 2014). Therefore, if numerical modelling may help in tackling the discussion about LULCCs, do existing LULCC scenarios encompass realistic changes in terms of land use planning? In the present study, we apply a surface model to compare projected LULCC scenarios over France and to assess their impacts on surface fluxes (i.e., water, heat and carbon dioxide fluxes) and on water and carbon storage in soils. To depict future LULCCs in France, we use RCP scenarios from the IPCC AR5 report (Moss et al., 2011). LULCCs encompassed in RCPs are discussed in terms of: (a) their impacts on water and energy balance over France, and (b) their feasibility in the framework of land use planning in France. This study is the first step to quantify the sensitivity of land

  19. Impact of Geological Changes on Regional and Global Economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova; Baranov, Sergey

    2017-04-01

    Periods of geological changes such as super continent cycle (300-500 million years), Wilson's cycles (300-900 million years), magmatic-tectonic cycle (150-200 million years), and cycles with smaller periods (22, 100, 1000 years) lead to a basic contradiction preventing forming methodology of the study of impact of geological changes on the global and regional economies. The reason of this contradiction is the differences of theoretical and methodological aspects of the Earth science and economics such as different time scales and accuracy of geological changes. At the present the geological models cannot provide accurate estimation of time and place where geological changes (strong earthquakes, volcanos) are expected. Places of feature (not next) catastrophic events are the only thing we have known. Thus, it is impossible to use the periodicity to estimate both geological changes and their consequences. Taking into accounts these factors we suggested a collection of concepts for estimating impact of possible geological changes on regional and global economies. We illustrated our approach by example of estimating impact of Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 on regional and global economies. Based on this example we concluded that globalization processes increase an impact of geological changes on regional and global levels. The research is supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 16-06-00056, 16-32-00019, 16-05-00263A).

  20. Co-production of science for regional integrated assessment and management of climate change impacts: The case study of Aspen, CO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnott, J. C.; Katzenberger, J.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of global climate change to regional scales are complex and cut across sectorial and jurisdictional boundaries, and therefore, a unique enterprise of collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders for development of adequate response strategies is required. Such collaboration has been exhibited between stakeholders, researchers, and a boundary organization—the Aspen Global Change Institute—since 2005 in assessing impacts and crafting policies in response with regard to climate change impacts in the mountain watershed surrounding Aspen, CO. A series of structured stakeholder interviews and town hall sessions, impact assessment reports, and intensive collaboration between various information providers and user groups has set the stage for development of both mitigation of and adaptation to climate change impacts. The most recent example of this has included the use of global scale climate model output to inform the development of resiliency strategies in response to extreme precipitation projections. The use of this kind of resource has been considered in a variety of decision-making contexts and has included the development of region- and decision-relevant qualitative scenarios that make use of quantitative model-based information. Results from this line of work that include feedback from actual users', a boundary organization, and researchers' perspectives will be reported along with examples of policy and implementation results.

  1. APPLICATION OF FUZZY LOGIC FOR SOIL PERMEABILITY STUDY OF THE IMPACTED REGION OF THE SANTOS REGION = APLICAÇÃO DA LÓGICA FUZZY PARA ESTUDO DE PERMEABILIDADE DE SOLOS DE REGIÃO IMPACTADA DA BAIXADA SANTISTA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Regina Monteiro Masalskiene Roveda

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Soil pollution has increasingly been a concern for society and the authorities. It is a complex issue that involves political, economic and also technical difficulties. One aspect of relevant interest are the mechanisms of permeability whose knowledge is very important in the analysis of environmental impacts in different contexts. The purpose of this work was to study the permeability of soils impacted region of Santos using fuzzy inference systems. The proposed methodology was applied to data from collections located in urban and administrative centers of the peripheral part of Santos. As a result two maps of permeability of the studied region are shown, obtained by different methods of defuzzification, centroid and the average maximum. It is observed that such maps, although with different permeability characteristics are in agreement with what is expected of a coastal region, thus showing that the methodology is viable for this type of study. = A poluição do solo tem sido cada vez mais um motivo de preocupação para toda a sociedade e para as autoridades. É um tema complexo que envolve questões políticas, econômicas e também dificuldades técnicas. Um aspecto de relevante interesse são os mecanismos de permeabilidade cujo conhecimento é bastante importante na análise de impactos ambientais em diversos contextos. O propósito deste trabalho foi estudar a permeabilidade de solos de região impactada da Baixada Santista utilizando sistemas de inferência fuzzy. A metodologia proposta foi aplicada em dados oriundos de coletas localizadas nas áreas urbanas e periféricas dos centros administrativos de parte da Baixada Santista. Como resultado são mostrados dois mapas de permeabilidade da região estudada, obtidos por métodos de defuzzificação distintos, são eles o centróide e a média dos máximos. Observa-se que tais mapas, apesar de apresentarem características de permeabilidade distintas, estão de acordo com o que se espera

  2. Emission metrics for quantifying regional climate impacts of aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, Marianne T.; Aamaas, Borgar; Berntsen, Terje; Bock, Lisa; Burkhardt, Ulrike; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P.

    2017-07-01

    This study examines the impacts of emissions from aviation in six source regions on global and regional temperatures. We consider the NOx-induced impacts on ozone and methane, aerosols and contrail-cirrus formation and calculate the global and regional emission metrics global warming potential (GWP), global temperature change potential (GTP) and absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP). The GWPs and GTPs vary by a factor of 2-4 between source regions. We find the highest aviation aerosol metric values for South Asian emissions, while contrail-cirrus metrics are higher for Europe and North America, where contrail formation is prevalent, and South America plus Africa, where the optical depth is large once contrails form. The ARTP illustrate important differences in the latitudinal patterns of radiative forcing (RF) and temperature response: the temperature response in a given latitude band can be considerably stronger than suggested by the RF in that band, also emphasizing the importance of large-scale circulation impacts. To place our metrics in context, we quantify temperature change in four broad latitude bands following 1 year of emissions from present-day aviation, including CO2. Aviation over North America and Europe causes the largest net warming impact in all latitude bands, reflecting the higher air traffic activity in these regions. Contrail cirrus gives the largest warming contribution in the short term, but remain important at about 15 % of the CO2 impact in several regions even after 100 years. Our results also illustrate both the short- and long-term impacts of CO2: while CO2 becomes dominant on longer timescales, it also gives a notable warming contribution already 20 years after the emission. Our emission metrics can be further used to estimate regional temperature change under alternative aviation emission scenarios. A first evaluation of the ARTP in the context of aviation suggests that further work to account for vertical sensitivities

  3. A new WRF-Chem treatment for studying regional-scale impacts of cloud processes on aerosol and trace gases in parameterized cumuli

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, L. K.; Shrivastava, M.; Easter, R. C.; Fast, J. D.; Chapman, E. G.; Liu, Y.; Ferrare, R. A.

    2015-02-01

    A new treatment of cloud effects on aerosol and trace gases within parameterized shallow and deep convection, and aerosol effects on cloud droplet number, has been implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) version 3.2.1 that can be used to better understand the aerosol life cycle over regional to synoptic scales. The modifications to the model include treatment of the cloud droplet number mixing ratio; key cloud microphysical and macrophysical parameters (including the updraft fractional area, updraft and downdraft mass fluxes, and entrainment) averaged over the population of shallow clouds, or a single deep convective cloud; and vertical transport, activation/resuspension, aqueous chemistry, and wet removal of aerosol and trace gases in warm clouds. These changes have been implemented in both the WRF-Chem chemistry packages as well as the Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization that has been modified to better represent shallow convective clouds. Testing of the modified WRF-Chem has been completed using observations from the Cumulus Humilis Aerosol Processing Study (CHAPS). The simulation results are used to investigate the impact of cloud-aerosol interactions on regional-scale transport of black carbon (BC), organic aerosol (OA), and sulfate aerosol. Based on the simulations presented here, changes in the column-integrated BC can be as large as -50% when cloud-aerosol interactions are considered (due largely to wet removal), or as large as +40% for sulfate under non-precipitating conditions due to sulfate production in the parameterized clouds. The modifications to WRF-Chem are found to account for changes in the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) and changes in the chemical composition of cloud droplet residuals in a way that is consistent with observations collected during CHAPS. Efforts are currently underway to port the changes described here to the latest version of WRF-Chem, and it is anticipated

  4. A Case Study of the Impacts of Dust Aerosols on Surface Atmospheric Variables and Energy Budgets in a Semi-Arid Region of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LING Xiao-Lu; GUO Wei-Dong; ZHANG Le; ZHANG Ren-Jian

    2010-01-01

    The authors present a case study investigatingthe impacts of dust aerosols on surface atmospheric variables and energy budgets in a semi-arid region of China.Enhanced observational meteorological data, radiative fluxes, near-surface heat fluxes, and concentrations of dust aerosols were collected from Tongyu station, one of the reference sites of the International Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project (CEOP), during a typical dust storm event in June 2006. A comprehensive analysis of these data show that in this semi-arid area, higher wind velocities and a continuously reduced air pressure were identified during the dust storm period.Dust storm events are usually associated with low relative humidity weather conditions, which result in low latent heat flux values. Dust aerosols suspended in the air decrease the net radiation, mainly by reducing the direct solar radiation reaching the land surface. This reduction in net radiation results in a decrease in soil temperatures at a depth of 2 cm. The combination of increased air temperature and decreased soil temperature strengthens the energy exchange of the atmosphere-earth system, increasing the surface sensible heat flux. After the dust storm event,the atmosphere was dominated by higher pressures and was relatively wet and cold. Net radiation and latent heat flux show an evident increase, while the surface sensible heat flux shows a clear decrease.

  5. The direct impact of climate change on regional labour productivity

    OpenAIRE

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Kovats, R Sari; Simon J. Lloyd; Holt, Tom; Richard S.J. Tol

    2008-01-01

    Global climate change will increase outdoor and indoor heat loads, and may impair health and productivity for millions of working people. This study applies physiological evidence about effects of heat, climate guidelines for safe work environments, climate modelling and global distributions of working populations, to estimate the impact of two climate scenarios on future labour productivity. In most regions, climate change will decrease labour productivity, under the simple assumption of no ...

  6. Evaluating the Impact of Regional Marketing Projects on the Development of Regions from Different Stakeholder Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kunze Kim-Kathrin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the competition for economically attractive stakeholders, regions have to implement strategies to gain and adhere those interest groups. Empirical studies concerning the migration motivations show that it is not only labor market but also soft locational factors of the social environment, nature and landscape that are of high importance: A majority of the population is willing to move or rather stay at a special place because of such soft locational factors. This study examines the impact of regional marketing projects on the development of regions from the perspectives of inhabitants and tourists as well as general attributes to measure a region’s attractiveness from the perspective of high potentials. We argue that those projects that fit to the region and its unique selling propositions contribute to positioning and building location brand value. We show that projects have a socio-economic effect on the attitude towards regions and contribute to building location brand value. An analysis of group differences shows that the project influence on the region and region attractiveness are perceived in significantly different manner depending on the knowledge level of the stakeholder group. Consequently, one should increase the awareness of marketing activities and regions and focus on soft locational factors while establishing and positioning a region brand.

  7. Estimation of the real population and its impact on the utilisation of healthcare services in Mediterranean resort regions: an ecological study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutierrez Gonzalo E

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The demographic structure has a significant influence on the use of healthcare services, as does the size of the population denominators. Very few studies have been published on methods for estimating the real population such as tourist resorts. The lack of information about these problems means there is a corresponding lack of information about the behaviour of populational denominators (the floating population or tourist load and the effect of this on the use of healthcare services. The objectives of the study were: a To determine the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW ratio, per person per day, among populations of known size; b to estimate, by means of this ratio, the real population in an area where tourist numbers are very significant; and c to determine the impact on the utilisation of hospital emergency healthcare services of the registered population, in comparison to the non-resident population, in two areas where tourist numbers are very significant. Methods An ecological study design was employed. We analysed the Healthcare Districts of the Costa del Sol and the island of Menorca. Both are Spanish territories in the Mediterranean region. Results In the two areas analysed, the correlation coefficient between the MSW ratio and admissions to hospital emergency departments exceeded 0.9, with p Conclusion The MSW indicator, which is both ecological and indirect, can be used to estimate the real population in areas where population levels vary significantly during the year. This parameter is of interest in planning and dimensioning the provision of healthcare services.

  8. Global, regional and local health impacts of civil aviation emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, Steve H. L.; Lee, Gideon L.; Lee, In Hwan; Allroggen, Florian; Ashok, Akshay; Caiazzo, Fabio; Eastham, Sebastian D.; Malina, Robert; Barrett, Steven R. H.

    2015-03-01

    Aviation emissions impact surface air quality at multiple scales—from near-airport pollution peaks associated with airport landing and take off (LTO) emissions, to intercontinental pollution attributable to aircraft cruise emissions. Previous studies have quantified aviation’s air quality impacts around a specific airport, in a specific region, or at the global scale. However, no study has assessed the air quality and human health impacts of aviation, capturing effects on all aforementioned scales. This study uses a multi-scale modeling approach to quantify and monetize the air quality impact of civil aviation emissions, approximating effects of aircraft plume dynamics-related local dispersion (˜1 km), near-airport dispersion (˜10 km), regional (˜1000 km) and global (˜10 000 km) scale chemistry and transport. We use concentration-response functions to estimate premature deaths due to population exposure to aviation-attributable PM2.5 and ozone, finding that aviation emissions cause ˜16 000 (90% CI: 8300-24 000) premature deaths per year. Of these, LTO emissions contribute a quarter. Our estimate shows that premature deaths due to long-term exposure to aviation-attributable PM2.5 and O3 lead to costs of ˜21 bn per year. We compare these costs to other societal costs of aviation and find that they are on the same order of magnitude as global aviation-attributable climate costs, and one order of magnitude larger than aviation-attributable accident and noise costs.

  9. Impact of surface waves in a Regional Climate Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rutgersson, Anna; Sætra, Oyvind; Semedo, Alvaro

    2010-01-01

    A coupled regional atmosphere-wave model system is developed with the purpose of investigating the impact of climate changes on the wave field, as well as feed-back effects of the wave field on the atmospheric parameters. This study focuses on the effects of introducing a two-way atmosphere-wave...... coupling on the atmosphere as well as on wave parameters. The model components are the regional climate model RCA, and the third generation wave model WAM. Two different methods are used for the coupling, using the roughness length and only including the effect of growing sea, and using the wave age...... and introducing the reduction of roughness due to decaying sea (swell). Introducing a two-way coupling results in an altered frequency distribution of wind speed and wave heights. When only including growing sea the impact of waves on the long term mean atmospheric parameters is limited, inducing a reduction...

  10. Land Use Change Impacts to Flows and Hydropower at the Southern Fringe of the Brazilian Amazon: A Regional, Empirical Study of Land-Water-Energy Nexus Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.; Cohn, A.

    2014-12-01

    Land use/cover change (LUCC) has occurred extensively in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest-savanna transition. Agricultural development-driven LUCC at regional scales can alter surface energy budgets, evapotranspiration (ET) and rainfall; these hydroclimatic changes impact streamflows, and thus hydropower. To date, there is only limited empirical understanding of these complex land-water-energy nexus dynamics, yet understanding is important to developing countries where both agriculture and hydropower are expanding and intensifying. To observe these changes and their interconnections, we synthesize a novel combination of ground network, remotely sensed, and empirically modeled data for LUCC, rainfall, flows, and hydropower potential. We connect the extensive temporal and spatial trends in LUCC occurring from 2000-2012 (and thus observable in the satellite record) to long-term historical flow records and run-of-river hydropower generation potential estimates. Changes in hydrologic condition are observed in terms of dry and wet season moments, extremes, and flow duration curves. Run-of-river hydropower generation potential is modeled at basin gauge points using equation models parameterized with literature-based low-head turbine efficiencies, and simple algorithms establishing optimal head and capacity from elevation and flows, respectively. Regression analyses are used to demonstrate a preliminary causal analysis of LUCC impacts to flow and energy, and discuss extension of the analysis to ungauged basins. The results are transferable to tropical and transitional forest regions worldwide where simultaneous agricultural and hydropower development potentially compete for coupled components of regional water cycles, and where policy makers and planners require an understanding of LUCC impacts to hydroclimate-dependent industries and ecosystems.

  11. Land use changes in Himalaya and their impacts on environment, society and economy: A study of the Lake Region in Kumaon Himalaya, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Prakash

    2008-11-01

    The traditional resource use structure in Himalaya has transformed considerably during the recent past, mainly owing to the growth of population and the resultant increased demand of natural resources in the region. This transformation in resource use practices is particularly significant in the densely populated tracts of Himalaya. As a result, cultivated land, forests, pastures and rangelands have been deteriorated and depleted steadily and significantly leading to their conversion into degraded and non-productive lands. These rapid land use changes have not only disrupted the fragile ecological equilibrium in the mountains through indiscriminate deforestation, degradation of land resources and disruption of the hydrological cycle, but also have significant and irreversible adverse impacts on the rural economy, society, livelihood and life quality of mountain communities. It has been observed that the agricultural production has declined, water sources are drying up fast due to decreased ground water recharge and a large number of villages are facing enormous deficit of critical resources, such as food, fodder, firewood and water, mainly due to unabated deforestation. As a result, the rural people, particularly the women, have to travel considerably long distances to collect fodder and firewood and to fetching water. It is therefore highly imperative to evolve a comprehensive and integrated land use framework for the conservation of the biophysical environment and sustainable development of natural resources in Himalaya. The land use policy would help local communities in making use of their natural resources scientifically and judiciously, and thus help in the conservation of the biophysical environment and in the increasing of the productivity of natural resources. The study indicates that conservation of forests and other critical natural resources through community participation, generation of alternative means of livelihood, and employment in rural areas can

  12. Land Use Changes in Himalaya and Their Impacts on Environment, Society and Economy: A Study of the Lake Region in Kumaon Himalaya, India

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Prakash TIWARI

    2008-01-01

    The traditional resource use structure in Himalaya has transformed considerably during the recent past, mainly owing to the growth of population and the resultant increased demand of natural resources in the region. This transformation in resource use practices is particularly significant in the densely populated tracts of Himalaya. As a result, cultivated land, forests, pastures and rangelands have been deteriorated and depleted steadily and significantly leading to their conversion into degraded and non-productive lands. These rapid land use changes have not only disrupted the fragile ecological equilibrium in the mountains through indiscriminate deforestation, degradation of land resources and disruption of the hydrological cycle, but also have significant and irreversible adverse impacts on the rural economy, society, livelihood and life quality of mountain communities. It has been observed that the agricultural production has declined, water sources are drying up fast due to decreased ground water recharge and a large number of villages are facing enormous deficit of critical resources, such as food, fodder, firewood and water, mainly due to unabated deforestation. As a result, the rural people, particularly the women, have to travel considerably long distances to collect fodder and firewood and to fetching water. It is therefore highly imperative to evolve a comprehensive and integrated land use framework for the conservation of the biophysical environment and sustainable development of natural resources in Himalaya. The land use policy would help local communities in making use of their natural resources scientifically and judiciously, and thus help in the conservation of the biophysical environment and in the increasing of the productivity of natural resources. The study indicates that conservation of forests and other critical natural resources through community participation, generation of alternative means of livelihood, and employment in rural areas can

  13. Labor Absorption and Its Impact on Gross Regional Domestic Product

    OpenAIRE

    Made Ika Prastyadewi; Agus Suman; Devanto Shasta Pratomo

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study is to examine the determinants of labor absorption in the trade, hotel and restaurant sector and its impact on Gross Regional Domestic Product/GRDP at Bali Province. This study is important due to the fact that the GRDP in this sector is the highest compared to other sector but the labor absorption is lower than the agriculture sector. This study used panel data comprising 9 regencies/cities at Bali Province in the period 2003-2009 including fixed effect model and ...

  14. Local and Regional Impacts of Large Scale Wind Energy Deployment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalakes, J.; Hammond, S.; Lundquist, J. K.; Moriarty, P.; Robinson, M.

    2010-12-01

    The U.S. is currently on a path to produce 20% of its electricity from wind energy by 2030, almost a 10-fold increase over present levels of electricity generated from wind. Such high-penetration wind energy deployment will entail extracting elevated energy levels from the planetary boundary layer and preliminary studies indicate that this will have significant but uncertain impacts on the local and regional environment. State and federal regulators have raised serious concerns regarding potential agricultural impacts from large farms deployed throughout the Midwest where agriculture is the basis of the local economy. The effects of large wind farms have been proposed to be both beneficial (drying crops to reduce occurrences of fungal diseases, avoiding late spring freezes, enhancing pollen viability, reducing dew duration) and detrimental (accelerating moisture loss during drought) with no conclusive investigations thus far. As both wind and solar technologies are deployed at scales required to replace conventional technologies, there must be reasonable certainty that the potential environmental impacts at the micro, macro, regional and global scale do not exceed those anticipated from carbon emissions. Largely because of computational limits, the role of large wind farms in affecting regional-scale weather patterns has only been investigated in coarse simulations and modeling tools do not yet exist which are capable of assessing the downwind affects of large wind farms may have on microclimatology. In this presentation, we will outline the vision for and discuss technical and scientific challenges in developing a multi-model high-performance simulation capability covering the range of mesoscale to sub-millimeter scales appropriate for assessing local, regional, and ultimately global environmental impacts and quantifying uncertainties of large scale wind energy deployment scenarios. Such a system will allow continuous downscaling of atmospheric processes on wind

  15. [Financial impact of smoking on health systems in Latin America: A study of seven countries and extrapolation to the regional level].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pichon-Riviere, Andrés; Bardach, Ariel; Augustovski, Federico; Alcaraz, Andrea; Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Pinto, Márcia Teixeira; Castillo-Riquelme, Marianela; Torres, Esperanza Peña; Osorio, Diana Isabel; Huayanay, Leandro; Munarriz, César Loza; de Miera-Juárez, Belén Sáenz; Gallegos-Rivero, Verónica; Puente, Catherine De La; Navia-Bueno, María Del Pilar; Caporale, Joaquín

    2016-10-01

    Estimate smoking-attributable direct medical costs in Latin American health systems. A microsimulation model was used to quantify financial impact of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumonia, lung cancer, and nine other neoplasms. A systematic search for epidemiological data and event costs was carried out. The model was calibrated and validated for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, countries that account for 78% of Latin America's population; the results were then extrapolated to the regional level. Every year, smoking is responsible for 33 576 billion dollars in direct costs to health systems. This amounts to 0.7% of the region's gross domestic product (GDP) and 8.3% of its health budget. Cardiovascular disease, COPD, and cancer were responsible for 30.3%, 26.9%, and 23.7% of these expenditures, respectively. Smoking-attributable costs ranged from 0.4% (Mexico and Peru) to 0.9% (Chile) of GDP and from 5.2% (Brazil) to 12.7% (Bolivia) of health expenditures. In the region, tax revenues from cigarette sales barely cover 37% of smoking-attributable health expenditures (8.1% in Bolivia and 67.3% in Argentina). Smoking is responsible for a significant proportion of health spending in Latin America, and tax revenues from cigarette sales are far from covering it. The region's countries should seriously consider stronger measures, such as an increase in tobacco taxes.

  16. Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: a region by region overview

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ward, Raymond D; Friess, Daniel A; Day, Richard H; MacKenzie, Richard A

    2016-01-01

    Inter‐related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales...

  17. The impact of aging on regional employment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Torben Dall; Mitze, Timo Friedel; Kangasharju, Aki

    2014-01-01

    Ageing is a key challenge for many countries. The purpose of this paper is to simulate how ageing affects future regional labour market outcomes. We develop a simulation procedure based on data for 71 Nordic regions in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark. The procedure combines spatial econometrics...... and population projections for scenario analyses of future employment patterns up to 2021. Compared to a “benchmark scenario” based on projections of the working age population, we find that predicted regional labour market outcomes tell a much richer story if a combination of estimation results and population...

  18. The impact of aging on regional employment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Torben Dall; Mitze, Timo Friedel; Kangasharju, Aki;

    2014-01-01

    Ageing is a key challenge for many countries. The purpose of this paper is to simulate how ageing affects future regional labour market outcomes. We develop a simulation procedure based on data for 71 Nordic regions in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark. The procedure combines spatial econometrics...... and population projections for scenario analyses of future employment patterns up to 2021. Compared to a “benchmark scenario” based on projections of the working age population, we find that predicted regional labour market outcomes tell a much richer story if a combination of estimation results and population...

  19. CITYZEN climate impact studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schutz, Martin (ed.)

    2011-07-01

    We have estimated the impact of climate change on the chemical composition of the troposphere due to changes in climate from current climate (2000-2010) looking 40 years ahead (2040-2050). The climate projection has been made by the ECHAM5 model and was followed by chemistry-transport modelling using a global model, Oslo CTM2 (Isaksen et al., 2005; Srvde et al., 2008), and a regional model, EMEP. In this report we focus on carbon monoxide (CO) and surface ozone (O3) which are measures of primary and secondary air pollution. In parallel we have estimated the change in the same air pollutants resulting from changes in emissions over the same time period. (orig.)

  20. Regional economic impacts of Grand Canyon river runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hjerpe, Evan E; Kim, Yeon-Su

    2007-10-01

    Economic impact analysis (EIA) of outdoor recreation can provide critical social information concerning the utilization of natural resources. Outdoor recreation and other non-consumptive uses of resources are viewed as environmentally friendly alternatives to extractive-type industries. While outdoor recreation can be an appropriate use of resources, it generates both beneficial and adverse socioeconomic impacts on rural communities. The authors used EIA to assess the regional economic impacts of rafting in Grand Canyon National Park. The Grand Canyon region of northern Arizona represents a rural US economy that is highly dependent upon tourism and recreational expenditures. The purpose of this research is twofold. The first is to ascertain the previously unknown regional economic impacts of Grand Canyon river runners. The second purpose is to examine attributes of these economic impacts in terms of regional multipliers, leakage, and types of employment created. Most of the literature on economic impacts of outdoor recreation has focused strictly on the positive economic impacts, failing to illuminate the coinciding adverse and constraining economic impacts. Examining the attributes of economic impacts can highlight deficiencies and constraints that limit the economic benefits of recreation and tourism. Regional expenditure information was obtained by surveying non-commercial boaters and commercial outfitters. The authors used IMPLAN input-output modeling to assess direct, indirect, and induced effects of Grand Canyon river runners. Multipliers were calculated for output, employment, and income. Over 22,000 people rafted on the Colorado River through Grand Canyon National Park in 2001, resulting in an estimated $21,100,000 of regional expenditures to the greater Grand Canyon economy. However, over 50% of all rafting-related expenditures were not captured by the regional economy and many of the jobs created by the rafting industry are lower-wage and seasonal. Policy

  1. Study of Chinese pollution with the 3D regional chemistry transport CHIMERE model and remote sensing observations, with a focus on mineral dust impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachatre, Mathieu; Foret, Gilles; Beekmann, Matthias; Cheiney, Audrey; Dufour, Gaëlle; Laurent, Benoit; Cuesta, Juan

    2017-04-01

    Since the end of the 20th century, China has observed important growth in numerous sectors. China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been multiply by 4 during the 2000-2010 decade (National Bureau of Statistics of China), mostly because of the industry's growth. These evolutions have been accompanied by important increases of atmospheric pollutants emissions (Yinmin et al, Atmo Env, 2016). As a consequence and for about 10 years now, Chinese authorities have been working to reduce pollutant levels, because atmospheric pollution is a major health issue for Chinese population especially within cities, for which World Health Organisation's standards for major pollutants (Ozone, PM2.5, PM10) are often exceeded. Particles have multiple issues, as they impact on health and global warming. Their impacts will depend on their sources (primary or secondary pollutants) and natures (Particle size distribution, chemical composition…). Controlling particles loading is a complex task as their sources are various and dispersed on the Chinese territories: mineral dust can be emitted from Chinese deserts in large amount (Laurent et al., GPC, 2006), ammonia can be emitted from agriculture and livestock (Kang et al., ACP, 2016) and lots of urban primary pollutants can be emitted from urbanized areas. It is then necessary to work from a continental to local scales to understand more precisely pollution of urbanized areas. It is then mandatory to discriminate and quantify pollution sources and to estimate the impact of natural pollution and the major contributing sources. We propose here an approach based on a model and satellite observation synergy to estimate what controls Chinese pollution. We use the regional chemistry transport model CHIMERE (Menut et al., GMD, 2013) to simulate atmospheric pollutants concentrations. A large domain (72°E-145°E; 17.5°N-55°N), with a ¼°x¼° resolution is used to make multi-annual simulations. CHIMERE model include most of the pollutants

  2. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Great Lakes Region (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts identified by the study for the Great Lakes region.

  3. The economic impact of hunting: A regional approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrus van der Merwe

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The core of South Africa tourism industry is based on wildlife tourism.  Private game reserves and game farms which forms part of wildlife tourism constitute most of the wildlife products in South Africa.  On these private reserves and game farms, hunting is one of the major income generators for product owners.  The aim of this study is to analyse the economic impact of hunting on the regional economies of three of South Africa’s most important hunting provinces. The study used economic multipliers, input-output analysis, and related modelling processes through input-output (supply-use tables and social accounting matrices (SAM. The results differed significantly for the three provinces, with Limpopo receiving the biggest impact (R2.6 billion and the Free State having the highest multiplier (2.08. The geographical location of the game farms, the number of farms per province and the species available all influenced the magnitude of the economic impact of hunters over and above the traditional determinants of economic impact analysis. The implication of the research is that it will help product owners in the development of game farms or hunting products, contribute to policy formulation, especially for government decisions on what products to offer where, and how to create more jobs.

  4. Impacts of climate change and establishing a vegetation cover on water erosion of contaminated spoils for two contrasting United Kingdom regional climates: a case study approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Munck, Cécile S; Hutchings, Tony R; Moffat, Andy J

    2008-10-01

    This study examines how pollutant linkage of contaminants will be influenced by predicted changes in precipitation and subsequent rainfall erosion of soils and spoils in the United Kingdom during the 21st century. Two contrasting regional climates were used in conjunction with 2 extreme emissions scenarios (low and high greenhouse gas emissions) to run the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation 2 (RUSLE2) model for a case study that represents a high risk of pollutant linkage through water erosion. Results for the 2 scenarios and the 2 regions showed a significant and gradual increase in erosion rates with time as a consequence of climate change, by up to 32% for the southwest and 6.6% for the southeast regions by the 2080s. Revegetation of the site showed a dramatic reduction in predicted future amounts of sediment production and subsequent contaminant movement, well below existing levels. Limitations and future improvements of the methodology are discussed.

  5. Salinity Impacts on Agriculture and Groundwater in Delta Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, D.; Salehin, M.; Jairuddin, M.; Saleh, A. F. M.; Rahman, M. M.; Parks, K. E.; Haque, M. A.; Lázár, A. N.; Payo, A.

    2015-12-01

    Delta regions are attractive for high intensity agriculture due to the availability of rich sedimentary soils and of fresh water. Many of the world's tropical deltas support high population densities which are reliant on irrigated agriculture. However environmental changes such as sea level rise, tidal inundation and reduced river flows have reduced the quantity and quality of water available for successful agriculture. Additionally, anthropogenic influences such as the over abstraction of ground water and the increased use of low quality water from river inlets has resulted in the accumulation of salts in the soils which diminishes crop productivity. Communities based in these regions are usually reliant on the same water for drinking and cooking because surface water is frequently contaminated by commercial and urban pollution. The expansion of shallow tube well systems for drinking water and agricultural use over the last few decades has resulted in mobilisation of salinity in the coastal and estuarine fringes. Sustainable development in delta regions is becoming constrained by water salinity. However salinity is often studied as an independent issue by specialists working in the fields of agriculture, community water supply and groundwater. The lack of interaction between these disciplines often results in corrective actions being applied to one sector without fully assessing the effects of these actions on other sectors. This paper describes a framework for indentifying the causes and impacts of salinity in delta regions based on the source-pathway-receptor framework. It uses examples and scenarios from the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta in Bangladesh together with field measurements and observations made in vulnerable coastal communities. The paper demonstrates the importance of creating an holistic understanding of the development and management of water resources to reduce the impact of salinity in fresh water in delta regions.

  6. Impact of emission control on regional air quality: an observational study of air pollutants before, during and after the Beijing Olympic Games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shulan; Gao, Jian; Zhang, Yuechong; Zhang, Jingqiao; Cha, Fahe; Wang, Tao; Ren, Chun; Wang, Wenxing

    2014-01-01

    An observational study on trace gases and PM2.5 was conducted at three sites in and around Beijing, during the Olympic season from 2007 to 2009. Air quality improved significantly during the Olympic Games due to the special emission control measures. However, concentrations of the primary pollutants and PM were found to have risen significantly after the Games. Although the major O3 precursors (NO(x) and VOCs) were well controlled during the Olympic season, O3 was still found to be the highest in 2008, based on the data of ground-based observation. All this information suggests that while control of regional emissions for the Beijing Olympic Games did improved the air quality in Beijing, more efforts will be needed for the continuous improvement of regional air quality, especially for significant reductions of O3 and fine particulate pollution, and not only in Beijing, but also in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

  7. The impact of segmental volumetric changes on functional mitral regurgitation: a study using three-dimensional regional time-volume analysis combined with low-dose dobutamine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaofeng; Hsiung, Ming-Chon; Mu, Yuming

    2014-02-01

    Using transthoracic three-dimensional (3D) echo regional volume analysis combined with low-dose dobutamine to investigate the effects on regional volume, mitral configuration and functional mitral regurgitation (FMR). Fifty-six patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM) were included in this study. The effective regurgitant orifice area (EROA) of FMR secondary to ICM with depressed left ventricular ejection fraction was compared with mitral tenting area and coaptation height (CH) before and after low-dose dobutamine (10 μg/kg per min). Using 3-DQ software we measured and calculated regional stroke-volumes (rSV), the ratio of the rSV to the whole left ventricular stroke volume (rgSVratio) in all 17 segments and the average rgSVratio of 4 anterior-PM attached segments (rgSVratio-aver anter-PM), 4 posterior-PM attached segments (rgSVratio-aver post-PM), 8 PMs attached segments (rgSVratio-aver PMs) and all 17 segments before and after dobutamine. Compared with the resting condition, the SVr and rgSVratio on the basal and mid segments of anterior, lateral, inferior, and posterior walls were increased after dobutamine infusion (P FMR decreasing during low-dose dobutamine is quantitatively associated with the regional LV volume change of attached PMs. Real time transthoracic three-dimensional echocardiography may provide a simple and noninvasive approach to assess regional LV time-volume characteristic during FMR. © 2013, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Impact of Water Availability on Land and Water Productivity: A Temporal and Spatial Analysis of the Case Study Region Khorezm, Uzbekistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P. A. Lamers

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Since irrigation water is assumedly the predominant factor determining crop yield, the difference in irrigation water availability across the administrative sub-districts of the Khorezm region, Central Asia, also inflicts an unequal distribution of agricultural revenues. Considering the national aim of a fair distribution and efficient use of resources, here we analyze the relationships between irrigation water access and rural welfare from 2000 to 2007 by descriptive statistics. Analyses revealed not only the general dependency of agricultural revenue on irrigation water availability, but also occurrence of low land productivity during water scarce years and, irrespective of the annual water availability, in some tail end regions each year. Furthermore, apart from irrigation water availability, land productivity was also impacted by soil quality, cropping structure, and type of land ownership. Fair distribution of water and land resources should also take into consideration population density. It is argued that an anticipated equal and efficient water allocation necessitates improved irrigation water conveyance, distribution, and application efficiency via best water management practices. Liberalization of markets, development of a market infrastructure and improvement in yields also contribute to increased land and water productivity.

  9. ClimateImpactsOnline: A web platform for regional climate impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nocke, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is widely known but there is often uncertainty about the specific effects. One of the key tasks is - beyond discussing climate change and its impacts in specialist groups - to present these to a wider audience. In that respect, decision-makers in the public sector as well as directly affected professional groups require to obtain easy-to-understand information. These groups are not made up of specialist scientists. This gives rise to two challenges: (1) the complex information must be presented such that it is commonly understood, and (2) access to the information must be easy. Interested parties do not have time to familiarize themselves over a lengthy period, but rather want to immediately work with the information. Beside providing climate information globally, regional information become of increasing interest for local decision making regarding awareness building and adaptation options. In addition, current web portals mainly focus on climate information, considering climate impacts on different sectors only implicitly. As solution, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and WetterOnline have jointly developed an Internet portal that is easy to use, groups together interesting information about climate impacts and offers it in a directly usable form. This new web portal ClimateImpactsOnline.com provides detailed information, combining multiple sectors for the test case of Germany. For this region, numerous individual studies on climate change have been prepared by various institutions. These studies differ in terms of their aim, region and time period of interest. Thus, the goal of ClimateImpactsOnline.com is to present a synthesized view on regional impacts of global climate change on hydrology, agriculture, forest, energy, tourism and health sector. The climate and impact variables are available on a decadal time resolution for the period from 1901-2100, combining observed data and future projections. Detailed information are presented

  10. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Mid-Atlantic Region (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keyser, D.; Tegen, S.; Flores, F.; Zammit, D.; Kraemer, M.; Miles, J.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts for the Mid-Atlantic region.

  11. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Gulf of Mexico Region (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flores, F.; Keyser, D.; Tegen, S.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts for the Gulf of Mexico region.

  12. The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation Impact on Regional Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Rolf; Valev, Dimitar; Atanassov, Atanas; Danov, Dimitar; Guineva, Veneta; Kirillov, Andrey S.

    2016-07-01

    The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) shows a period of about 60-70 years. Over the time span from 1860 up to 2014 the AMO has had a strong climate impact on the Northern Hemisphere. The AMO is considered to be related to the Atlantic overturning circulation, but the origin of the oscillation is not fully understood up till now. To study the AMO impact on climate, the Hadcrut4, Crut4 and HadSST3 temperature data sets have been employed in the current study. The influence of the AMO on the zonal and meridional temperature distribution has been investigated in detail. The strongest zonal AMO impact was obtained in the Arctic region. The results indicated that the AMO influence on temperature at Southern latitudes was opposite in phase compared to the temperature influence in the Northern Hemisphere, in agreement with the well known heat transfer phenomenon from South to North Atlantic. In the Northern Hemisphere the strongest AMO temperature impact was found over the Atlantic and America. In the West from American continent, over the Pacific, the AMO impact was the lowest obtained over the whole Northern Hemisphere. The Rocky Mountains and Sierra Madre, connected with it southwards, built up an atmospheric circulation barrier preventing a strong propagation of the AMO temperature signal westerly. The amplitude of the AMO index itself was greater during summer-fall. However stronger AMO influence on the Northern Hemisphere temperatures was found during the fall-winter season, when the differences between the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the temperatures in the tropics were the greatest.

  13. Impact of bioenergy on regionalized nitrogen balances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häußermann, Uwe; Klement, Laura; Bach, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Results of regionalized and overall net-N-balances are used to fulfil different reporting obligations, as well as input data for nitrate leaching modelling (Bach et al. 2014). For Germany, these regionalized net-N-balances are calculated for 402 administrative units on the NUTS-III-level (Landkreise and kreisfreie Städte in Germany), 16 administrative units on the NUTS-I-level (Bundesländer in Germany) and the whole country for every year from 1995 to 2015. The so far existing net-N-balancing method includes nitrogen inputs and outputs of crop production and animal husbandry, however, not the utilization of crops and farmyard manure for energy production (Bach et al. 2014). Due to the introduction of guaranteed feed in tariffs for electricity production from biomass by the German renewable energy law in 2000 and the introduction of more favourable conditions for electricity production from biogas in 2004 (EEG 2000, EEG 2004) in the frame of the German policy of energy transition towards renewable energies („Energiewende"), the electric capacity of biogas plants had a steep increase in the years afterwards, the installed electric capacity increased from 149 MW in 2004 to 5080 MW in 2015 (BMWi and AGEE Stat 2016). The cropping area for the production of energy cops for biogas production increased as well from 0.4 Mio ha in 2007 to 1.393 Mio ha in 2015 (Statista 2017). We introduced a method to calculate the nitrogen input via energy crops, farmyard manure and organic waste, output via biogas digestates and gaseous nitrogen losses via NH3, N2O, NOx and N2 during the anaerobic digestion, digestate storage and spreading on the field, the emission factors for these nitrogen species are obtained from the report on methods and data for the agricultural part of the German national greenhouse gas inventory and informative inventory report (Haenel et al. 2016). To obtain highly resolved information on the distribution and capacity of biogas plants on NUTS-III-level, we

  14. Study of primary biological aerosols to characterize their diversity in particulate matter over the Indian tropical region: assessment for climatic and health impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priyamvada R, H.; Muthalagu, A.; R, R.; Verma, R. S.; Philip, L.; Desprès, V.; Poeschl, U.; Gunthe, S. S.

    2015-12-01

    Primary Biological Aerosol Particles (PBAPs) are ubiquitous in the Earth's atmosphere and can influence the biosphere, climate, and public health (Després et al., 2012).To study the importance of the PBAPs, it is important to have an understanding about their origin, seasonal abundance and diversity. The study of PBAPs over the Indian tropical region becomes important as it hosts ~ 18% of the world population and has a distinct climate with a systematic and cyclic monsoon season which is different from the continental climates in Europe and America. In this study, the PBAPs were characterized by the application of molecular genetic techniques involving DNA extraction, PCR amplifications, cloning and DNA sequencing. In addition, characterization of the fungal source emissions was performed to better understand the diversity, abundance, and relative contribution of the fungal aerosols. For the present study, DNA analysis was performed on a one-year air filter set of PM10 (particulate matter ≤10 mm) covering three distinct meteorological seasons, i.e. summer, monsoon, and winter. The results from DNA analysis revealed the presence of bacteria and fungi in the filter samples. The fungal source characterization performed by the DNA analysis revealed the ratio of Basidiomycota to Ascomycota to be 96:4, which is consistent with previously reported studies from airborne fungal communities in the European continental boundary layer air (Fröhlich-Nowoisky et al., 2009). In the study region, the highest species richness was found to be present in the family Agaricaceae (25.3%) followed by Polyporaceae (15.3%) and Marasmiaceae (10.81%). Agaricaceae, Polyporaceae and Psathyrellaceae were dominant families in the study region and the families like Clavariaceae, Nectriaceae, Phanerochaetachae, Pleurotaceae and Strophariaceae were found to be rare. The results will next be compared with the diversity and types of the fungi found in ambient PM10. More details will be presented.

  15. Impact assessment of human diet changes with rapid urbanization on regional nitrogen and phosphorus flows--a case study of the megacity Shanghai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chen; Zou, Chunjing; Wang, Qinxue; Hayashi, Yoshitsugu; Yasunari, Tetsuzo

    2014-02-01

    Regional material flows are strongly influenced by human diets. To diagnose and prevent environmental problems that threaten urban sustainability, the impact of human diet changes with rapid urbanization on the regional nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) flows were quantitatively evaluated. A survey of day-to-day activities was conducted of 450 individuals surveyed (adults over 18 years old) in three representative areas (the central district, the new district, and the suburban/rural areas) of Shanghai, a megacity which has attracted worldwide attention. The lifestyle (eating habits, domestic sanitation, drainage facilities, etc.) pattern was determined and the potential N and P loads from human diets on the environment were calculated. The daily potential nitrogen and phosphorus loads from human diets was 19.36 g-N, 1.80 g-P in the central district, 16.48 g-N, 1.52 g-P in the new district, and 13.04 g-N, 1.20 g-P in the suburban/rural areas of Shanghai. Respondents in all three areas, especially those in the suburban/rural areas reported a preference for increasing the intake of animal-derived as well as processed foods, which means that the potential N and P load from human diets to the environment will increase further. In addition, most respondents consider industrial wastewater discharge as the main cause of eutrophication of waterbodies, though in recent years water pollution caused by domestic wastewater has increased rapidly, but this has received much less attention. Environment-friendly eating habits and improvements in the environmental awareness will be required.

  16. Labor Absorption and Its Impact on Gross Regional Domestic Product

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Made Ika Prastyadewi

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to examine the determinants of labor absorption in the trade, hotel and restaurant sector and its impact on Gross Regional Domestic Product/GRDP at Bali Province. This study is important due to the fact that the GRDP in this sector is the highest compared to other sector but the labor absorption is lower than the agriculture sector. This study used panel data comprising 9 regencies/cities at Bali Province in the period 2003-2009 including fixed effect model and simultaneous equation model of Two-Stage Least Square. The results showed that GRDP, working age population, and the minimum wage have positive effect on employment, while the educated unemployment has no significant effect on the employment in the trade, hotel and restaurant sector. In addition, increases in employment and workers productivity have positive and significant effects the GRDP in the trade, hotel and restaurant sector at Bali Province.

  17. Scenarios of bioenergy development impacts on regional groundwater withdrawals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Mitchell, Rob B.; Guan, Qingfeng; McCoy, Tim D.

    2013-01-01

    Irrigation increases agricultural productivity, but it also stresses water resources (Huffaker and Hamilton 2007). Drought and the potential for drier conditions resulting from climate change could strain water supplies in landscapes where human populations rely on finite groundwater resources for drinking, agriculture, energy, and industry (IPCC 2007). For instance, in the North American Great Plains, rowcrops are utilized for livestock feed, food, and bioenergy production (Cassman and Liska 2007), and a large portion is irrigated with groundwater from the High Plains aquifer system (McGuire 2011). Under projected future climatic conditions, greater crop water use requirements and diminished groundwater recharge rates could make rowcrop irrigation less feasible in some areas (Rosenberg et al. 1999; Sophocleous 2005). The Rainwater Basin region of south central Nebraska, United States, is an intensively farmed and irrigated Great Plains landscape dominated by corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) production (Bishop and Vrtiska 2008). Ten starch-based ethanol plants currently service the region, producing ethanol from corn grain (figure 1). In this study, we explore the potential of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a drought-tolerant alternative bioenergy feedstock, to impact regional annual groundwater withdrawals for irrigation under warmer and drier future conditions. Although our research context is specific to the Rainwater Basin and surrounding North American Great Plains, we believe the broader research question is internationally pertinent and hope that this study simulates similar research in other areas.

  18. Impact of diabetic foot related complications on the Health Related Quality of Life (HRQol) of patients--a regional study in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Morales, E; Lázaro-Martínez, J L; Martínez-Hernández, D; Aragón-Sánchez, J; Beneit-Montesinos, J V; González-Jurado, M A

    2011-03-01

    The diabetic foot reduces the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with diabetes mellitus. This study aims at ascertaining the impact of the etiological factors of the diabetic foot on the various aspects of HRQoL. This is a comparative study involving type 1 or type 2 (n = 421) diabetic patients divided into 2 groups. Group 1 (n = 258) includes diabetic patients without foot lesions and group 2 (n = 163) includes patients suffering from a diabetic foot ulcer. The HRQoL of the sample was assessed by using the SF-36 Health Questionnaire. The overall HRQoL score was 68.58 ± 18.24 in group 1 and 50.99 ± 18.98 in group 2 (P related etiological factors that significantly reduce these patients' HRQoL are neuropathy, amputation history, and poor metabolic control (P Quality of life was lower in women with diabetic foot than in men. Neuropathy--regarded as the main etiological factor in the diabetic foot--also proved to be a variable that reduces the HRQoL. Paradoxically, peripheral vascular disease did not prove to have a negative impact on the quality of life.

  19. Distal ejecta from lunar impacts: Extensive regions of rocky deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandfield, Joshua L.; Cahill, Joshua T. S.; Carter, Lynn M.; Neish, Catherine D.; Patterson, G. Wesley; Williams, Jean-Pierre; Paige, David A.

    2017-02-01

    Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Diviner Radiometer, Mini-RF, and LRO Camera data were used to identify and characterize rocky lunar deposits that appear well separated from any potential source crater. Two regions are described: 1) A ∼18,000 km2 area with elevated rock abundance and extensive melt ponds and veneers near the antipode of Tycho crater (167.5°E, 42.5°N). This region has been identified previously, using radar and imaging data. 2) A much larger and more diffuse region, covering ∼730,000 km2, centered near 310°E, 35°S, containing elevated rock abundance and numerous granular flow deposits on crater walls. The rock distributions in both regions favor certain slope azimuths over others, indicating a directional component to the formation of these deposits. The spatial distribution of rocks is consistent with the arrival of ejecta from the west and northwest at low angles (∼10-30°) above the horizon in both regions. The derived age and slope orientations of the deposits indicate that the deposits likely originated as ejecta from the Tycho impact event. Despite their similar origin, the deposits in the two regions show significant differences in the datasets. The Tycho crater antipode deposit covers a smaller area, but the deposits are pervasive and appear to be dominated by impact melts. By contrast, the nearside deposits cover a much larger area and numerous granular flows were triggered. However, the features in this region are less prominent with no evidence for the presence of impact melts. The two regions appear to be surface expressions of a distant impact event that can modify surfaces across wide regions, resulting in a variety of surface morphologies. The Tycho impact event may only be the most recent manifestation of these processes, which likely have played a role in the development of the regolith throughout lunar history.

  20. Saline dust storms and their ecological impacts in arid regions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jilili; Abuduwaili

    2010-01-01

    In many arid and semiarid regions,saline playas represent a significant source of unconsoli-dated sediments available for aeolian transport,and severe saline dust storms occur frequently due to human disturbance.In this study,saline dust storms are reviewed systematically from the aspects of con-cept,general characteristics,conditions of occurrence,distribution and ecological impact.Our researches showed that saline dust storms are a kind of chemical dust storm originating in dry lake beds in arid and semiarid regions;large areas of unconsolidated saline playa sediments and frequent strong winds are the basic factors to saline dust storm occurrence;there are differentiation characteristics in deposition flux and chemical composition with wind-blown distance during saline dust storm diffusion;and saline dust storm diffusion to some extent increases glacier melt and results in soil salinization in arid regions.An under-standing of saline dust storms is important to guide disaster prevention and ecological rehabilitation.

  1. Impact of land-cover change in the southern Amazonia climate: a case study for the region of Alta Floresta, Mato Grosso, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubreuil, Vincent; Debortoli, Nathan; Funatsu, Beatriz; Nédélec, Vincent; Durieux, Laurent

    2012-01-01

    The transformation of forest into pastures in the Brazilian Amazon leads to significant consequences to climate at local scale. In the region of Alta Floresta (Mato Grosso, Brazil), deforestation has been intense with over half the forests being cut since 1970. This article first examines the evolution of precipitation observed in this region and shows a significant trend in the decrease in total precipitation especially at the end of the dry season and at the beginning of the rainy season. The study then compares the temperatures measured in cleared and forested sectors within a reserve in the area of Alta Floresta (Mato Grosso, Brazil) between 2006 and 2007. The cleared sector was always hotter and drier (from 5% to 10%) than the forested area. This difference was not only especially marked during the day when it reached on average 2°C but also seemed to increase during the night with the onset of the dry season (+0.5°C). The Urban Heat Island effect is also evident especially during the night and in the dry season.

  2. A Multihazard Regional Level Impact Assessment for South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    To prioritize climate adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative and systematic regional-level assessments which are comparable across multiple climatic hazard regimes. Assessing which countries in a region are most vulnerable to climate change requires analysis of multiple climatic hazards including: droughts, floods, extreme temperature as well as rainfall and sea-level rise. These five climatic hazards, along with population densities were modelled using GIS which enabled a summary of associated human exposure and agriculture losses. A combined index based on hazard, exposure and adaptive capacity is introduced to identify areas of extreme risks. The analysis results in population climate hazard exposure defined as the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given climate-hazard event in a given period of time. The study presents a detailed and coherent approach to fine-scale climate hazard mapping and identification of risks areas for the regions of South Asia that, for the first time, combines the following unique features: (a) methodological consistency across different climate-related hazards, (b) assessment of total exposure on population and agricultural losses, (c) regional-level spatial coverage, and (d) development of customized tools using ArcGIS toolbox that allow assessment of changes in exposure over time and easy replacement of existing datasets with a newly released or superior datasets. The resulting maps enable comparison of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia to climate-related hazards and is among the most urgent of policy needs. Subnational areas (regions/districts/provinces) most vulnerable to climate change impacts in South Asia are documented. The approach involves overlaying climate hazard maps, sensitivity maps, and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study used data on the

  3. Impact of Ramadan fasting on energy intake and anthropometry of type 2 diabetics-Study in two regions of the central highlands and southeastern Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meriem Bencharif

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction:During the month of Ramadan, muslims change their lifestyle. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of Ramadan fasting on the energy intake and anthropometry of type 2 diabetics. Methods:Epidemiological study by questionnaire were collected before (T0, during (T1 and after (T3 Ramadan 2013. The data were collected during medical consultations in sanitary establishments in two regions of the central highlands (Boussaâda and the south-east of Algeria (Djamaâ. The survey card concerned a food recording and anthropometry repeated during the 3 time periods mentioned before. Results:The study concerned 476 diabetics (255 women, 221 men with the mean age of 54.9±4.7 years old. 66.4% of diabetics of Boussaâda and 61.8% of Djamaâ followed nutritional education sessions preparing for fasting (p˃0.05. The number of fasting days during the month of Ramadan is 24.0±1.7days. By comparing both of the regions, no significant difference was observed in the energy intake distribution and in macronutriments of the diabetics (p>0.05. By comparing the 3 periods, the diabetics of Boussaâda had an energy intake significantly increased at T1 (p=0.000. In Djamaâ, the energy intake decreased from T0 to T2 (p=0.000. The energy distribution of macronutrients remained stable (p>0.05 between the three periods. Body mass index, waist circumference and the waist-to-hip ratio were significantly decreased from T0 to T2 (p

  4. Impact of High Resolution SST Data on Regional Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Case, Jonathon; LaFontaine, Frank; Vazquez, Jorge; Mattocks, Craig

    2010-01-01

    Past studies have shown that the use of coarse resolution SST products such as from the real-time global (RTG) SST analysis[1] or other coarse resolution once-a-day products do not properly portray the diurnal variability of fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean that drive the formation of low level clouds and precipitation over the ocean. For example, the use of high resolution MODIS SST composite [2] to initialize the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) (ARW) [3] has been shown to improve the prediction of sensible weather parameters in coastal regions [4][5}. In an extend study, [6] compared the MODIS SST composite product to the RTG SST analysis and evaluated forecast differences for a 6 month period from March through August 2007 over the Florida coastal regions. In a comparison to buoy data, they found that that the MODIS SST composites reduced the bias and standard deviation over that of the RTG data. These improvements led to significant changes in the initial and forecasted heat fluxes and the resulting surface temperature fields, wind patterns, and cloud distributions. They also showed that the MODIS composite SST product, produced for the Terra and Aqua satellite overpass times, captured a component of the diurnal cycle in SSTs not represented in the RTG or other one-a-day SST analyses. Failure to properly incorporate these effects in the WRF initialization cycle led to temperature biases in the resulting short term forecasts. The forecast impact was limited in some situations however, due to composite product inaccuracies brought about by data latency during periods of long-term cloud cover. This paper focuses on the forecast impact of an enhanced MODIS/AMSR-E composite SST product designed to reduce inaccuracies due data latency in the MODIS only composite product.

  5. Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

  6. Impact of Mining Activities upon Environment in Panzhihua Region, Southwestern China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2004-01-01

    Mining activities have left huge uncovered slopes, large areas of gangue ground and extensive railings dams. In this paper, we studied some impacts of mining activities upon environment in Panzhihua region, southwestern China. The environmental impacts include ecological destruction, geological disasters, environmental pollution, land damage, solid waste and occupational health effect in study area. The author suggested that local government should take some measure to reduce environmental impact in Pan...

  7. Advanced Regional SDIs in Europe: Comparative Cost-Benefit Evaluation and Impact Assessment Perspectives

    OpenAIRE

    Craglia, Massimo; Campagna, Michele

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports the findings of two studies on the socio-economic impacts of the regional spatial data infrastructures (SDIs) in Catalonia, and Lombardia, and then compares the developments in these two regions with those in other nine advanced regional SDIs to explore the extent to which the findings reported for the two detailed case-studies could be generalised. The significance of this paper is that the studies it reports are to date the only ones substantiating with real evidence the ...

  8. Impact of GOCE on Regional Geoid Modelling: Finnish Territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saari, Timo; Bilker-Koivula, Mirjam; Poutanen, Markku

    2016-08-01

    In the Dragon 3 project 10519 "Case study on heterogeneous geoid/quasigeoid based on space borne and terrestrial data combination with special consideration of GOCE mission data impact" we combined the latest GOCE models with the terrestrial gravity data of Finland and surrounding areas to calculate a quasi-geoid model for Finland. Altogether 249 geoid models with different modifications were calculated using the GOCE DIR5 models up to spherical harmonic degree and order 240 and 300 and the EIGEN-6C4 up to degree and order 1000 and 2190.The calculated quasi-geoid models were compared against the ground truth in Finland with two independent GPS-levelling datasets. The best GOCE- only models gave standard deviations of 2.8 cm, 2.6 cm (DIR5 d/o 240) and 2.7 cm, 2.3 cm (DIR5 d/o 300) in Finnish territory for NLS-FIN and EUVN-DA datasets, respectively. For the high resolution model EIGEN-6C4 (which includes the full cycle of the GOCE data), the results were 2.4 cm, 1.8 cm (d/o 1000) and 2.5 cm, 1.7 (d/o 2190). The sub-2-centimetre (and near 2 cm with GOCE-only) accuracy is an improvement over the previous and current Finnish geoid models, thus leading to a conclusion of the great impact of the GOCE- mission on regional geoid modelling.

  9. Burgundy regional climate change and its potential impact on grapevines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Yiwen [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); G.C. Rieber Climate Institute at the Nansen Environment and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Castel, Thierry [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); AgroSup, Department of Agriculture and Environment, Dijon (France); Richard, Yves; Cuccia, Cedric [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); Bois, Benjamin [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); IUVV, University of Burgundy, Dijon (France)

    2012-10-15

    ARPEGE general circulation model simulations were dynamically downscaled by The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for the study of climate change and its impact on grapevine growth in Burgundy region in France by the mid twenty-first century. Two time periods were selected: 1970-1979 and 2031-2040. The WRF model driven by ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data was validated against in situ surface temperature observations. The daily maximum and minimum surface temperature (T{sub max} and T{sub min}) were simulated by the WRF model at 8 x 8 km horizontal resolution. The averaged daily T{sub max} for each month during 1970-1979 have good agreement with observations, the averaged daily T{sub min} have a warm bias about 1-2 K. The daily T{sub max} and T{sub min} for each month (domain averaged) during 2031-2040 show a general increase. The largest increment ({proportional_to}3 K) was found in summer. The smallest increments (<1 K) were found in spring and fall. The spatial distribution of temperature increment shows a strong meridional gradient, high in south in summer, reversing in winter. The resulting potential warming rate in summer is equivalent to 4.7 K/century under the IPCC A2 emission scenario. The dynamically downscaled T{sub max} and T{sub min} were used to simulate the grape (Pinot noir grape variety) flowering and veraison dates. For 2031-2040, the projected dates are 8 and 12 days earlier than those during 1970-1979, respectively. The simulated hot days increase more than 50% in the two principal grapevine regions. They show strong impact on Pinot noir development. (orig.)

  10. Regional solid waste management study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-09-01

    In 1990, the Lower Savannah Council of Governments (LSCOG) began dialogue with the United States Department of Energy (DOE) regarding possibilities for cooperation and coordination of solid waste management practices among the local governments and the Savannah River Site. The Department of Energy eventually awarded a grant to the Lower Savannah Council of Governments for the development of a study, which was initiated on March 5, 1992. After careful analysis of the region`s solid waste needs, this study indicates a network approach to solid waste management to be the most viable. The network involves the following major components: (1) Rural Collection Centers, designed to provide convenience to rural citizens, while allowing some degree of participation in recycling; (2) Rural Drop-Off Centers, designed to give a greater level of education and recycling activity; (3) Inert landfills and composting centers, designed to reduce volumes going into municipal (Subtitle D) landfills and produce useable products from yard waste; (4) Transfer Stations, ultimate landfill disposal; (5) Materials Recovery Facilities, designed to separate recyclables into useable and sellable units, and (6) Subtitle D landfill for burial of all solid waste not treated through previous means.

  11. A study of El Niño-Southern oscillation impacts to the South China Sea region using ground-based GPS receiver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suparta, Wayan; Iskandar, Ahmad; Singh Jit Singh, Mandeep; Alauddin Mohd Ali, Mohd; Yatim, Baharudin; Tangang, Fredolin

    2013-04-01

    We observe an ENSO activity by using ground-based GPS receiver as an effort to study the effects of global warming and climate change in the tropical region. The precipitable water vapor (PWV) derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) meteorology in line with the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) is used to indicate their response on ENSO activities. The PWV data used in this study was taken from the station at Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Kota Kinabalu (UMSK) over 2011, together with NTUS station (in the Singapore), PIMO (in Philippines) and BAKO (in Indonesia) are also compared. The relationship between PWV and SSTa at all stations on weekly basis exhibited modest with correlation coefficients between -0.30 and -0.78 significantly at the 99% confidence level. The negative correlation indicates that during a La Niña phase, the PWV is increased when the sea surface temperatures getting cold causes warm air mass in the central Pacific moved to west Pacific. The increased of PWV causes the GPS signals will be getting slower.

  12. Environmental Impact Analysis Process. Deployment Area Selection and Land Withdrawal/Acquisition DEIS. Chapter IV. Part III. Environmental Consequences to the Study Regions and Operating Base Vicinities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-12-01

    are cow-calf and ewe- lamb. Marketed animals usually go to other states for additional fattening on rangelands, pasture, and/or feedlots. The limited...frequent valleys, except for Gambel’s quail and Chukar’s partridge in winter. Impacts to these species are expected to be minimal. Waterfowl in the...agriculture could negatively impact bobwhite quail , but would probably have a reciprocal effect on scaled quail and lesser prairie chickens if the areas were

  13. Draft Environmental Impact Statement. MX Deployment Area Selection and Land Withdrawal/Acquisition DEIS. Volume 4, Part III. Environmental Consequences to the Study Regions and Operating Base Vicinities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-12-01

    The two most common types of livestock operations are cow-calf and ewe- lamb. Marketed animals usually go to other states for additional fattening on...frequent valleys, except for Gambel’s quail and Chukar’s partridge in winter. Impacts to these species are expected to be minimal. Waterfowl in the...agriculture could negatively impact bobwhite quail , but would probably have a reciprocal effect on scaled quail and lesser prairie chickens if the

  14. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tegen, S.

    2014-11-01

    NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

  15. Hydrological characteristics and flood plain vegetation of human impacted wetlands: A case study from Okhla Bird Sanctuary, National Capital Region, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Upma Manral

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Yamuna River has been subjected to severe anthropogenic pressures such as water abstraction, discharge of wastewater, development activities on river floodplains, deforestation in the river basin resulting in reduced flow, loss of habitat, deterioration of water quality and loss of biological diversity. We studied hydrological characteristics such as river flow, water depth and quality and floodplain vegetation characteristics of Okhla Bird Sanctuary (OBS, a human modified floodplain wetland formed due to the construction of Okhla barrage across the Yamuna River in National Capital Region (NCR, on the Delhi-Uttar Pradesh border. The flow data for Yamuna was collected from Delhi Jal board and irrigation department of Uttar Pradesh. Study indicates reduced flow in the river downstream Wazirabad with no release of water in the summers of 2006 and 2010. For bathymetry, GARMIN 160 C Fish Finder was used after dividing study area into 50 m x 50 m grids. About 65% area had depth less than 2 m indicating more of shallower areas. Results for water quality analysis show a dissolved oxygen level at 1.6 ± 0.84 mgl-1, Biological and Chemical Oxygen demand at 16.72 ± 4.28 mgl-1 and 39.8 ± 7.71 mgl-1 respectively, indicating a high organic load in the river. The Sanctuary is facing serious threats from the rapid proliferation of Typha angustifolia and Eichhornia crassipes which were dominant species in shallow water and open water habitats, respectively. Thus, the remaining Yamuna river flood plain in the NCR, Delhi should be declared as ecologically sensitive area and appropriate measures should be taken to maintain its integrity.

  16. Assessing Regional Climate and Local Landcover Impacts on Vegetation with Remote Sensing

    OpenAIRE

    Nathaniel Brunsell; Pei-Ling Lin

    2013-01-01

    Landcover change alters not only the surface landscape but also regional carbon and water cycling. The objective of this study was to assess the potential impacts of landcover change across the Kansas River Basin (KRB) by comparing local microclimatic impacts and regional scale climate influences. This was done using a 25-year time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and precipitation (PPT) data analyzed using multi-resolution information theory metrics. Results showed bot...

  17. Nuclear and Related Analytical Techniques Used to Study the Anthropogenic Impact on the Sister River in the Vicinity of the Town of Klin (Moscow Region, Russia)

    CERN Document Server

    Morzhukhina, S V; Chermnykh, L P; Khodakovsky, L P; Frontasyeva, M V; Gundorina, S F

    2001-01-01

    The ecological fate of small rivers, tributaries of the Volga River, is of great concern in the national program of the Russian Federation "Restoration of the Volga River". The results on the elaborated hydrochemical and saprobiological water examination of the Sister River are reported along with the results on the multielement chemical analysis of surface sediments in the catchment of the town of Klin (Moscow Region) known for its numerous industrial and chemical enterprises with heavy contaminant inputs. Epithermal neutron activation analysis was used to study heavy metals and other toxic elements in bottom sediments. A total of 42 elements including Pb, Cu, Cd and Hg were determined by polarography (method of inverse voltamperometry). Metal/Al rations which express the relative mobility of the elements follow the sequence: Fe > Mg > K > Na > Ca >> Zr > Mn > Zn = Sr > Cr > V > Ni = As > Co. Elevated concentrations of Cd, Pb, Zn and Cu in the bottom sediments of the Sister River reinforced us to determine t...

  18. The impacts of climate change on hydrology in a typical glacier region-A case study in Hailuo Creek watershed of Mt. Gongga in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GuoFeng Zhu; YuanQingHe; DaHe Qin; HongKai Gao; Tao Pu; DongDong Chen; Kai Wang

    2016-01-01

    The glaciers of the Hengduan Mountains play an important role in the hydrology processes of this region. In this study, the HBV Light model, which relies on a degree-day model to simulate glacier melting, was employed to simulate both glacier runoff and total runoff. The daily temperature and precipitation at the Hailuo Creek No. 1 Glacier from 1952 to 2009 were obtained from daily meteorological observed data at the glacier and from six national meteorological stations near the Hailuo Creek Basin. The daily air temperature, precipitation, runoff depth, and monthly potential evaporation in 1995, 1996, and 2002 were used to obtain a set of optimal parameters, and the annual total runoff and glacier runoff of the Hailuo Creek Glacier (1952–2009) were calculated using the HBV Light model. Results showed the average annual runoff in the Hailuo Creek Basin was 2,114 mm from 1952 to 2009, of which glacial melting accounted for about 1,078 mm. The river runoff in the Hailuo Creek catchment increased as a result of increased glacier runoff. Glacier runoff accounted for 51.1% of the Hailuo Creek stream flow in 1994 and increased to 72.6% in 2006. About 95% of the increased stream flow derived from the increased glacier runoff.

  19. Potential sources of nitrous acid (HONO) and their impacts on ozone: A WRF-Chem study in a polluted subtropical region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li; Wang, Tao; Zhang, Qiang; Zheng, Junyu; Xu, Zheng; Lv, Mengyao

    2016-04-01

    Current chemical transport models commonly undersimulate the atmospheric concentration of nitrous acid (HONO), which plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry, due to the lack or inappropriate representations of some sources in the models. In the present study, we parameterized up-to-date HONO sources into a state-of-the-art three-dimensional chemical transport model (Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry: WRF-Chem). These sources included (1) heterogeneous reactions on ground surfaces with the photoenhanced effect on HONO production, (2) photoenhanced reactions on aerosol surfaces, (3) direct vehicle and vessel emissions, (4) potential conversion of NO2 at the ocean surface, and (5) emissions from soil bacteria. The revised WRF-Chem was applied to explore the sources of the high HONO concentrations (0.45-2.71 ppb) observed at a suburban site located within complex land types (with artificial land covers, ocean, and forests) in Hong Kong. With the addition of these sources, the revised model substantially reproduced the observed HONO levels. The heterogeneous conversions of NO2 on ground surfaces dominated HONO sources contributing about 42% to the observed HONO mixing ratios, with emissions from soil bacterial contributing around 29%, followed by the oceanic source (~9%), photochemical formation via NO and OH (~6%), conversion on aerosol surfaces (~3%), and traffic emissions (~2%). The results suggest that HONO sources in suburban areas could be more complex and diverse than those in urban or rural areas and that the bacterial and/or ocean processes need to be considered in HONO production in forested and/or coastal areas. Sensitivity tests showed that the simulated HONO was sensitive to the uptake coefficient of NO2 on the surfaces. Incorporation of the aforementioned HONO sources significantly improved the simulations of ozone, resulting in increases of ground-level ozone concentrations by 6-12% over urban areas in Hong Kong and

  20. Impact of tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature biases on the simulated atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Atlantic region: An ECHAM6 model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichhorn, Astrid; Bader, Jürgen

    2017-09-01

    As many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, the coupled Earth System Model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology suffers from severe sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the tropical Atlantic. We performed a set of SST sensitivity experiments with its atmospheric model component ECHAM6 to understand the impact of tropical Atlantic SST biases on atmospheric circulation and precipitation. The model was forced by a climatology of observed global SSTs to focus on simulated seasonal and annual mean state climate. Through the superposition of varying tropical Atlantic bias patterns extracted from the MPI-ESM on top of the control field, this study investigates the relevance of the seasonal variation and spatial structure of tropical Atlantic biases for the simulated response. Results show that the position and structure of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Atlantic is significantly affected, exhibiting a dynamically forced shift of annual mean precipitation maximum to the east of the Atlantic basin as well as a southward shift of the oceanic rain belt. The SST-induced changes in the ITCZ in turn affect seasonal rainfall over adjacent continents. However not only the ITCZ position but also other effects arising from biases in tropical Atlantic SSTs, e.g. variations in the wind field, change the simulation of precipitation over land. The seasonal variation and spatial pattern of tropical Atlantic SST biases turns out to be crucial for the simulated atmospheric response and is essential for analyzing the contribution of SST biases to coupled model mean state biases. Our experiments show that MPI-ESM mean-state biases in the Atlantic sector are mainly driven by SST biases in the tropical Atlantic while teleconnections from other basins seem to play a minor role.

  1. Tourism sector in Panama : regional economic impacts and the potential to benefit the poor

    OpenAIRE

    Klytchnikova, Irina; Dorosh, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Tourism is one of Latin America's fastest growing industries but the impact of tourism on the poor and the effects on lagging regions are under debate. Many studies have evaluated the growth impacts of the tourism sector but few have analyzed the impact of tourism on the economy and poverty at the subnational level in developing countries. As a country marked by a "dual economy," Panama sh...

  2. The Impact of a Learning Culture on Organisational Change in Regional SMEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamberry, Goff; Sabri-Matanagh, Saeed; Duncan, Glen

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores the impact of a learning culture on organisational change in small to medium-sized regional manufacturing enterprises following a review of the related literature, and a qualitative study of 10 manufacturing SMEs in the Riverina region of New South Wales. The research confirmed that key learning culture factors as identified in…

  3. The Impact of Regional Higher Education Spaces on the Security of International Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes-Mewett, Helen

    2016-01-01

    The security of international students in regional higher education spaces in Australia has been overlooked. Contingency theory provides the framework for this case study to explore the organisational structure and support services relevant to a regional higher education space and how this impacts the security of international students. In-depth…

  4. The Impact of Regional Higher Education Spaces on the Security of International Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes-Mewett, Helen

    2016-01-01

    The security of international students in regional higher education spaces in Australia has been overlooked. Contingency theory provides the framework for this case study to explore the organisational structure and support services relevant to a regional higher education space and how this impacts the security of international students. In-depth…

  5. 四川省区域人口健康信息化深入发展影响因素研究%The Study on the Impact Factors of Regional Population Health Infromatization Development in Sichuan Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈文; 冯昌琪; 林迪; 杨岷; 张子武; 李志; 唐志强

    2016-01-01

    近10年,四川省区域人口健康信息化发展取得了重大进展.但是,区域互联互通,业务协同和信息共享仍未全面实现,区域信息化建设进展缓慢.笔者针对这一现象进行了调查,列出了制约四川省区域人口健康信息化深入发展的前6个主要影响因素,并对这6个主要影响因素进行了较深入的分析,总结了更深层原因,以供区域人口健康信息化研究者、系统开发者、行业主管在区域人口健康信息化规划、建设、管理时参考.同时,针对这些影响因素,提出了对策与建议.%It is witnessed that the informatization development on regional population health in Sichuan province has been making a significant progress in the past decade. But regional connections, business collaborations, and information sharing are still in their infancy, as well as the speed of development on regional informatization is fairly slow. In response to the above-mentioned problems, we conducted an investigation and listed the top six primary impact factors with respect to the informatization development on regional population health in Sichuan province. Building on the six primary impact factors, we also conducted a deep analysis to gain deep insights and came up with valuable tactics and suggestions. By doing this, researchers, system developers, and industrial executives who are interested in regional population health can benefit from this study.

  6. Detecting and quantifying the extent of desertification and its impact in the semi-arid Sub-Saharan Africa: A case study of the Upper East Region, Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owusu, Alex B.

    The semi-arid Sub-Saharan region of Africa is in a state of permanent instability at a variety of spatio-temporal momentum. Efforts at sustaining and managing this fragile but all-important ecosystem and its processes require collecting, storing and analyzing multispatial and temporal data that are accurate and continuously updated in terms of changes (degradation), types and magnitude of change. Remote sensing techniques based on multispectral satellite-acquired data (AVHRR, Landsat TM and ETM+) have demonstrated an immense potential as a means to detect, quantify, monitor and map these changes. However, much of what satellite sensors can detect and capture, especially in the form of vegetation index (NDVI), do not tell the entire story about land degradation. This research used multispectral remote sensing data from three sensors (AVHRR, Landsat TM, and ETM+ and IKONOS) to detect and quantify the spatio-temporal land degradation (desertification) to validate the local observation and perception of desertification. The study also analyzes data on crop production in search of evidence proving or disproving degradation in the semi-arid sahel-sudan savannah transitional vegetation zone of the UER, Ghana. Multispectral satellite-acquired NDVI, from AVHRR, Landsat TM & ETM+, show that vegetation greenness is on the ascendancy, although there are pockets (localized degradation) signs of severe land degradation; field evidence suggests that the increasing NDVI is caused by vegetation succession where locally adapted horsetail grasses have been displaced by environmentally efficient, short-lived, quick maturing and dense grasses due to excessive burning, rapid population growth and inappropriate development policies. Local people's perceptions, supported by crop production data, suggest extensive land degradation. Other evidence includes food insecurity, diseases, rainfall variability and land extensification to marginal lands. Convergence of evidence suggests that

  7. Study on the impact of sudden stratosphere warming in the upper mesosphere-lower thermosphere regions using satellite and HF radar measurements [Conference paper

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mbatha, N

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available successive positions in increments of 3.25˚, giving an azimuth extent of ~52˚ boxshadowdwn The meteor trail echoes occur predominantly in and below the lower E region (~95 km) [Hussey et al.,2000], thus acquisition of the winds in meteor region... is accomplished by using data from the first several range gates of the radar boxshadowdwn The backscatter at this distance is primarily due to meteors, and thus a nominal height of 90-95 km is assumed SAIP conference 2009 [UKZN] 10/28/2009 boxshadowdwn...

  8. Impact of gridpoint statistical interpolation scheme over Indian region

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Surya K Dutta; V S Prasad

    2011-12-01

    An analysis system experiment was conducted for the month of June 2008 with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis scheme using NCMRWF’s (National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) T254L64 model. Global analyses were carried out for all days of the month and respective forecast runs are made up to 120-hr. These analyses and forecasts are inter-compared with the operational T254L64 model outputs which uses Spectral Statistical Interpolation (SSI) analysis scheme. The prime objective of this study is to assess the impact of GSI analysis scheme with special emphasis on Indian summer monsoon as compared to SSI. GSI analysis scheme do have positive impact over India and its surrounding regions. Though not for all but for some fields it is in edge over Spectral Statistical Analysis Scheme. Patterns for the forecast mean error; anomaly correlation and 1 scores with respect to the respective analyses are same for both GSI and SSI. Both have increasing 1 scores, decreasing mean errors and anomaly correlation with the advance of forecast days. The vector wind RMSE of the model forecasts with respect to the analyses is lower for GSI at 850 hPa and higher at 250 hPa. But over tropics GSI is better at both levels. The temperature field of GSI has higher correlation and lower RMSE at both 850 and 250 hPa pressure levels. There are improvements in systematic errors for 850 and 200 hPa temperature field in GSI compared to that in SSI. The depression centre in GSI analysis is closer to observation but has produced more intense depression compared to that of SSI. Rainfall forecast of SSI is better at day-1 whereas GSI is closer to the observation at day-5 forecasts valid at the same day.

  9. Mapping HIV-1 vaccine induced T-cell responses: bias towards less-conserved regions and potential impact on vaccine efficacy in the Step study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fusheng Li

    Full Text Available T cell directed HIV vaccines are based upon the induction of CD8+ T cell memory responses that would be effective in inhibiting infection and subsequent replication of an infecting HIV-1 strain, a process that requires a match or near-match between the epitope induced by vaccination and the infecting viral strain. We compared the frequency and specificity of the CTL epitope responses elicited by the replication-defective Ad5 gag/pol/nef vaccine used in the Step trial with the likelihood of encountering those epitopes among recently sequenced Clade B isolates of HIV-1. Among vaccinees with detectable 15-mer peptide pool ELISpot responses, there was a median of four (one Gag, one Nef and two Pol CD8 epitopes per vaccinee detected by 9-mer peptide ELISpot assay. Importantly, frequency analysis of the mapped epitopes indicated that there was a significant skewing of the T cell response; variable epitopes were detected more frequently than would be expected from an unbiased sampling of the vaccine sequences. Correspondingly, the most highly conserved epitopes in Gag, Pol, and Nef (defined by presence in >80% of sequences currently in the Los Alamos database www.hiv.lanl.gov were detected at a lower frequency than unbiased sampling, similar to the frequency reported for responses to natural infection, suggesting potential epitope masking of these responses. This may be a generic mechanism used by the virus in both contexts to escape effective T cell immune surveillance. The disappointing results of the Step trial raise the bar for future HIV vaccine candidates. This report highlights the bias towards less-conserved epitopes present in the same vaccine used in the Step trial. Development of vaccine strategies that can elicit a greater breadth of responses, and towards conserved regions of the genome in particular, are critical requirements for effective T-cell based vaccines against HIV-1.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00849680, A Study of Safety, Tolerability

  10. Impacts of Groundwater Pumping on Regional and Global Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide

    2016-01-01

    Except frozen water in ice and glaciers (68%), groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater (30%), and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this chapter, the most recent advances assessing human impact on regional and global groundwater resources are reviewed. This chapter critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches quantifying the effect of groundwater pumping in regional and global groundwater resources and the evidence of feedback to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with groundwater use. At last, critical challenges and opportunities are identified in the use of groundwater to adapt to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

  11. Estimating the economic and demographic impacts of solar technology commercialization on US regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kort, J.R.

    1980-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a framework through which these regional economic and demographic impacts of solar technology commercialization can be analyzed. Two models comprise the basis of this framework - a national input/output model and an interregional econometric model, the National-Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES). These models are used to convert projected sales of solar energy systems to gross output concepts, and to evaluate the impacts associated with these sales. Analysis is provided for the nine census regions and 50 states and the District of Columbia for the years 1980 through 1990. Impacts on major economic aggregates such as output, employment, income, and population are described. The methodology used in this study is described. The economic and demographic impacts of solar technology commercialization on US regions and states are presented. The major conclusions of the study are summarized, and direction is provided for further research. Detailed tables of regional and state solar energy expenditures and their impacts appear in the Appendix.

  12. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

    2015-06-23

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

  13. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems.

  14. The Selby Coalfield impact study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shutt, J.; Henderson, R.; Kumi-Ampofo, F.; Thursfield, D. [Leeds Metropolitan University, Leeds (United Kingdom). Leeds Business School

    2002-07-01

    This report considers the likely economic and social impacts. It sets out proposals for the establishment of a Selby Mines Closure Task Force. There is a need to mitigate the economic and social impacts of the potential closure and to develop a re-invigorated focus on a sub-regional skills, re-training and regeneration and planning programme co-ordinating the wide range of stakeholders who will need to be involved. 26 refs., 4 figs., 15 tabs. 12 maps., 9 apps.

  15. The impact of landslides in the Umbria region, central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Guzzetti

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The Umbria Region of Central Italy has a long history of mass movements. Landslides range from fast moving rock falls and debris flows, most abundant in mountain areas, to slow moving complex failures extending up to several hectares in the hilly part of the Region. Despite landslides occurring every year in Umbria, their impact remains largely unknown. We present an estimate of the impact of slope failures in the Umbria region based on the analysis of a catalogue of historical information on landslide events, a recent and detailed regional landslide inventory map, and three event inventories prepared after major landslide triggering events. Emphasis is given to the impact of landslides on the population, the transportation network, and the built-up areas. Analysis of the available historical information reveals that 1488 landslide events occurred at 1292 sites in Umbria between 1917 and 2001. In the same period 16 people died or were missing and 31 people were injured by slope movements. Roads and railways were damaged by slope failures at 661 sites, and 281 built-up areas suffered landslide damage. Three event inventories showing landslides triggered by high intensity rainfall events in the period 1937–1941, rapid snow melting in January 1997, and earthquakes in September–October 1997, indicate the type, abundance and distribution of damage to the population, the built-up areas and the transportation network caused by typical landslide-triggering events. Analysis of a geomorphological landslide inventory map reveals that in some of the municipalities in the region total landslide area exceeds 25%. Of the more than 45 700 landslide areas shown in the geomorphological inventory map, 4115 intersect a road or railway, and 6119 intersect a built-up area. In these areas slope failures can be expected during future landslide triggering events.

  16. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tegen, S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, F. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Miles, J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Zammit, D. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Loomis, D. [Great Lakes Wind Network, Cleveland, OH (United States)

    2015-02-01

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

  17. Ensemble-based Regional Climate Prediction: Political Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel, E.; Dykema, J.; Satyanath, S.; Anderson, J. G.

    2008-12-01

    Accurate forecasts of regional climate, including temperature and precipitation, have significant implications for human activities, not just economically but socially. Sub Saharan Africa is a region that has displayed an exceptional propensity for devastating civil wars. Recent research in political economy has revealed a strong statistical relationship between year to year fluctuations in precipitation and civil conflict in this region in the 1980s and 1990s. To investigate how climate change may modify the regional risk of civil conflict in the future requires a probabilistic regional forecast that explicitly accounts for the community's uncertainty in the evolution of rainfall under anthropogenic forcing. We approach the regional climate prediction aspect of this question through the application of a recently demonstrated method called generalized scalar prediction (Leroy et al. 2009), which predicts arbitrary scalar quantities of the climate system. This prediction method can predict change in any variable or linear combination of variables of the climate system averaged over a wide range spatial scales, from regional to hemispheric to global. Generalized scalar prediction utilizes an ensemble of model predictions to represent the community's uncertainty range in climate modeling in combination with a timeseries of any type of observational data that exhibits sensitivity to the scalar of interest. It is not necessary to prioritize models in deriving with the final prediction. We present the results of the application of generalized scalar prediction for regional forecasts of temperature and precipitation and Sub Saharan Africa. We utilize the climate predictions along with the established statistical relationship between year-to-year rainfall variability in Sub Saharan Africa to investigate the potential impact of climate change on civil conflict within that region.

  18. Assessment of the Impact of Metropolitan-Scale Urban Planning Scenarios on the Moist Thermal Environment under Global Warming: A Study of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Using Regional Climate Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asuka Suzuki-Parker

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a high-resolution regional climate model coupled with urban canopy model, the present study provides the first attempt in quantifying the impact of metropolitan-scale urban planning scenarios on moist thermal environment under global warming. Tokyo metropolitan area is selected as a test case. Three urban planning scenarios are considered: status quo, dispersed city, and compact city. Their impact on the moist thermal environment is assessed using wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT. Future projections for the 2070s show a 2–4°C increase in daytime mean WBGT relative to the current climate. The urban scenario impacts are shown to be small, with a −0.4 to +0.4°C range. Relative changes in temperature and humidity as the result of a given urban scenario are shown to be critical in determining the sign of the WBGT changes; however, such changes are not necessarily determined by local changes in urban land surface parameters. These findings indicate that urban land surface changes may improve or worsen the local moist thermal environment and that metropolitan-scale urban planning is inefficient in mitigating heat-related health risks for mature cities like Tokyo.

  19. The research on the impact of energy-environment policy on regional development—based on CGE model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Y. M.

    2017-01-01

    In this study, we will focus on study the impact of energy and environment regulatory on the inter-regional coordinated development from the regional level. Making use of multi-regional energy-economy-environmental computable general equilibrium(CGE) model, we will analysis the effect of regional energy regulation in the future. We will research the impact of the carbon emissions trading and other environmental policy on regional economic development and industrial structure. The results show that the regulation of energy and environment can promote regional industry to upgrade and different policies of energy and environmental are needed to implement to mitigate the negative impact on the economy of different regions. In the paper, we expand the traditional regional energy-environmental CGE model tools for providing new quantitative methods to study regional energy and environmental problems in China.

  20. Dvigateli regional'nogo stroitel'stva. Vlijanie regional'nyh politicheskih organizacij na sotrudnichestvo universitetov v regione Baltijskogo morja [Motors for regional development: impact on regional political organizations on the university cooperation in the Baltic Sea region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ewert Stefan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Educational co-operation is one of the main aspects of the regional political agenda in the Baltic Sea Region. The article analyzes the political impact of the organizations, as perceived by the universities in the region and political decision-makers on national and regional levels. Based on the success of the OECD in becoming an influential actor in educational policies, this article discusses different strategies for the regional political organizations to enhance their influence.

  1. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Southeast Region (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2013-07-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts identified by the study for the Southeast (defined here as Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia).

  2. Evaluating an impact origin for Mercury's high-magnesium region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Elizabeth A.; Potter, Ross W. K.; Abramov, Oleg; James, Peter B.; Klima, Rachel L.; Mojzsis, Stephen J.; Nittler, Larry R.

    2017-03-01

    During its four years in orbit around Mercury, the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft's X-ray Spectrometer revealed a large geochemical terrane in the northern hemisphere that hosts the highest Mg/Si, S/Si, Ca/Si, and Fe/Si and lowest Al/Si ratios on the planet. Correlations with low topography, thin crust, and a sharp northern topographic boundary led to the proposal that this high-Mg region is the remnant of an ancient, highly degraded impact basin. Here we use a numerical modeling approach to explore the feasibility of this hypothesis and evaluate the results against multiple mission-wide data sets and resulting maps from MESSENGER. We find that an 3000 km diameter impact basin easily exhumes Mg-rich mantle material but that the amount of subsequent modification required to hide basin structure is incompatible with the strength of the geochemical anomaly, which is also present in maps of Gamma Ray and Neutron Spectrometer data. Consequently, the high-Mg region is more likely to be the product of high-temperature volcanism sourced from a chemically heterogeneous mantle than the remains of a large impact event.abstract type="synopsis">Plain Language SummaryDuring its four years in orbit around Mercury, chemical measurements from the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft revealed a large region of unusual composition relative to the rest of the planet. Its elevated magnesium abundance, in particular, led to the name of the "high-magnesium region" (HMR). High magnesium abundance in rock can be an indicator of its origin, such as high-temperature volcanism. Although the HMR covers approximately 15% of Mercury's surface, its origin is not obvious. It does roughly correspond to a depression with thin crust, which previously led to the hypothesis that it is an ancient impact crater that was large enough to excavate mantle material, which, in rocky planets, is rich in

  3. Regional aerosol emissions and temperature response: Local and remote climate impacts of regional aerosol forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica; Hansson, Hans-Christen

    2017-04-01

    (RTP) coefficients, which directly link regional aerosol or aerosol precursor emissions to the temperature response in different regions. These RTP coefficients can provide a simplified way to perform an initial evaluation of climate impacts of e.g. different emission policy pathways and pollution abatement strategies.

  4. Regionalized study of the impact of an accidental radioactive pollution on a permanent meadow; Etude regionalisee de l'impact d'une pollution radioactive accidentelle sur une prairie permanente

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durand, V.; Mercat-Rommens, C

    2006-07-01

    The objective of this study consists in evaluating the sensitivity of the first part of the die grass-milk with respect to an accidental radioactive discharge. We want to know if a single uniform deposit would involve a contamination of the grazing grass identical on the scale of the own territory. The study was based on the A.S.T.R.A.L. model, a computer code developed by the I.R.S.N. which makes it possible to evaluate the transfer of the radionuclides in the terrestrial food chain following an accidental atmospheric emission. The way of transfer of A.S.T.R.A.L. on which the study focused is the transfer of the deposit to milk, via the grazing grass ingestion. The sensitivity of this way of transfer relies on several parameters: captation, yield, cows food rates and dates of setting to grass. Methodology thus consisted in regionalizing these parameters. The software S.T.I.C.S. developed by the I.N.R.A. of Avignon was then used. This model proposes a daily follow-up of the leaf area index which has been correlated with captation and with the production of fresh biomass (yield). (authors)

  5. Natural Resources Investment of Oil and Gas and Regional Development Impact on Community Empowerment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ridwan Nyak Baik

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study was done in Bekasi district, at West Java, Indonesia, with the aims to analyze the management of upstream activities (exploration and production of oil and gas industry and its impact on improving the quality of infrastructure, the equal benefits proportion for the corporation, local government and society, and CSR programs that would affect the community empowerment. The analysis would be calculated based on the per capita income, the number of medical personals, and the number of teachers. Based on that calculation, this study analyzed the impact of oil and gas activities to the regional development of the area under this study. Analysis of regional development was calculated through number of industry in the area, the economic growth, and local government revenue that affects community empowerment in Bekasi.Analyzed by structural equation modeling (SEM, the results showed that: (1 management of upstream oil and gas activities in this area have a positive influence, but no significant effect on community empowerment; (2 management of upstream oil and gas activities have a significant positive impact on regional development; (3 regional development has a significant positive impact on community empowerment; (4 management of upstream oil and gas activities have a greater positive influence towards community empowerment through regional development, because of the multiplier effect of the development of the region.

  6. The Energy Networks Landscape. Impacts on Rural Land in the Molise Region

    OpenAIRE

    Donatella Cialdea; Alessandra Maccarone

    2014-01-01

    The paper concerns the study of the energy infrastructure that have the most impact on rural land. The analysis focuses on the systems for wind power and ground–mounted photovoltaic plants.The case study is the Region of Molise, in Southern Italy. This Region is an emblematic case because it has a significant number of installations as seen in relationship with the whole national territory. The case becomes even more special with reference to local guidelines that have undergone successive fo...

  7. Impact of Inter‐Basin Water Transfer Projects on Regional Ecological Security from a Telecoupling Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Quan

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Inter‐basin water transfer projects (IBWTPs offer one of the most important means to solve the mismatch between supply and demand of regional water resources. IBWTPs have impacts on the complex ecosystems of the areas from which water is diverted and to which water is received. These impacts increase damage or risk to regional ecological security and human wellbeing. However, current methods make it difficult to achieve comprehensive analysis of the impacts of whole ecosystems, because of the long distance between ecosystems and the inconsistency of impact events. In this study, a model was proposed for the analysis of the impacts of IBWTPs on regional ecological security. It is based on the telecoupling framework, and the Driver‐Pressure‐State‐ Impact‐Response (DPSIR model was used to improve the analysis procedure within the telecoupling framework. The Middle Line of the South‐to‐North Water Diversion Project was selected as a case study to illustrate the specific analysis procedure. We realized that information sharing is a key issue in the management of regional security, and that the ecological water requirement, in the form of a single index, could be used to quantitatively assess the impacts on ecological security from IBWTPs.

  8. Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toon, O. B.; Robock, A.; Mills, M. J.; Xia, L.

    2013-05-01

    A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere.This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface.Simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade.The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation.The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia, the U.S., and the rest of

  9. Regional case studies--Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prentice, Andrew M

    2009-01-01

    Africa is the final continent to be affected by the nutrition transition and, as elsewhere, is characterized by the paradoxical coexistence of malnutrition and obesity. Several features of the obesity epidemic in Africa mirror those in other emerging nations: it penetrates the richer nations and urban areas first with a strong urban- rural gradient; initially it affects the wealthy, but later there is a demographic switch as obesity becomes a condition more associated with poverty, and it shares many of the same drivers related to the increasing affordability of highly refined oils and carbohydrates, and a move away from subsistence farm work and towards sedentary lifestyles. Africa also has some characteristics of the obesity epidemic that stand out from other regions such as: (1) excepting some areas of the Pacific, Africa is probably the only region in which obesity (especially among women) is viewed culturally as a positive and desirable trait, leading to major gender differences in obesity rates in many countries; (2) most of Africa has very low rates of obesity in children, and to date African obesity is mostly an adult syndrome; (3) Africans seem genetically prone to higher rates of diabetes and hypertension in association with obesity than Caucasians, but seem to be relatively protected from dislipidemias; (4) the case-specific deaths and disabilities from diabetes and hypertension in Africa are very high due to the paucity of health services and the strain that the 'double burden' of disease places on health systems.

  10. The Impact of Opioid Treatment on Regional Gastrointestinal Transit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Jakob L; Nilsson, Matias; Brock, Christina;

    2016-01-01

    -dimensional (3D)-Transit system. METHODS: Twenty-five healthy males were randomly assigned to oxycodone or placebo for 5 days in a double blind, crossover design. AdverseGI effects were measured with the bowel function index, gastrointestinal symptom rating scale, patient assessment of constipationsymptom......BACKGROUND/AIMS: To employ an experimental model of opioid-induced bowel dysfunction in healthy human volunteers, and evaluate the impact ofopioid treatment compared to placebo on gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms and motility assessed by questionnaires and regional GItransit times using the 3...... questionnaire, and Bristol stool form scale. Regional GI transit times were determined using the 3D-Transit system, and segmental transit times in the colon were determined using a custom Matlab(®) graphical user interface. RESULTS: GI symptom scores increased significantly across all applied GI questionnaires...

  11. Regional differences in perivascular adipose tissue impacting vascular homeostasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil-Ortega, Marta; Somoza, Beatriz; Huang, Yu; Gollasch, Maik; Fernández-Alfonso, Maria S

    2015-07-01

    Perivascular adipose tissue (PVAT) releases several important vasoactive factors with physiological and pathophysiological paracrine effects. A large body of evidence suggests regional phenotypic and functional differences among PVAT depots, depending on the specific vascular bed or different regions in the vascular bed where the PVAT is located. These non-uniform and separate PVATs exert various paracrine effects on vascular structure and function that largely impact disease states, such as endothelial dysfunction, atherosclerosis, or insulin resistance. This emerging view of PVAT function requires considering heterogeneous PVAT as a specialized organ that can differentially regulate vascular function depending on its anatomical location. In this context, the adipose-vascular axis may represent a novel target for pharmacological intervention in vasculopathy in cardiometabolic disorders.

  12. Prediction of climate change impacts on agricultural watersheds and the performance of winter cover crops: Case study of the upper region of the Choptank River Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elevated CO2 concentration, temperature, and precipitation intensity driven by climate change are expected to cause significant environmental changes in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW). Although the potential effects of climate change are widely reported, few studies have been conducted to unders...

  13. Region study of the impact of an accidental radioactive pollution on the corn of winter; Etude regionalisee de l'impact d'une pollution radioactive accidentelle sur le ble d'hiver

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delboe, A.; Mercat-Rommens, C

    2005-07-01

    The goal of this study is to evaluate the sensitivity of corn of winter with respect to an accidental release of radioactivity. We want to know if a uniform and specific deposit would involve the same contamination on the scale of the whole territory. the study was based on the equations of the A.S.T.R.A.L. model which makes it possible to evaluate the transfer of the radionuclides in the terrestrial food chain following an accidental atmospheric emission. The parameter of A.S.T.R.A.L. on which the study concentrated is the factor of transfer of the radioactivity of the air to the grain. This factor depends on the parameters of captation and translocation, since harvest is contaminated when the radionuclides deposited on the leaves are assimilated and transported towards the grain. Methodology thus consisted in regionalizing these two parameters. for that, software S.T.I.C.S. (multidisciplinary simulator for standard cultures) developed by the I.N.R.A. of Avignon was used. This model proposes a daily follow-up of the foliar index, as well as the dates of occurrence of the agronomic stages of corn. These variables were correlated with captation and translocation. The outputs of the simulations carried out on 12 climates and 2 varieties made it possible to express the parameters of captation and translocation according to the typology of A.S.T.R.A.L., i e according to the time deposit-harvest. Then, these values were compared with bibliographical data and with data issued from I.R.S.N. programs R.E.S.S.A.C. and R.A.D.E.M.I.C.. (authors)

  14. Potential impact of U.S. biofuels on regional climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgescu, M.; Lobell, D. B.; Field, C. B.

    2009-11-01

    Recent work has shown that current bio-energy policy directives may have harmful, indirect consequences, affecting both food security and the global climate system. An additional unintended but direct effect of large-scale biofuel production is the impact on local and regional climate resulting from changes in the energy and moisture balance of the surface upon conversion to biofuel crops. Using the latest version of the WRF modeling system we conducted twenty-four, midsummer, continental-wide, sensitivity experiments by imposing realistic biophysical parameter limits appropriate for bio-energy crops in the Corn Belt of the United States. In the absence of strain/crop-specific parameterizations, a primary goal of this work was to isolate the maximum regional climate impact, for a trio of individual July months, due to land-use change resulting from bio-energy crops and to identify the relative importance of each biophysical parameter in terms of its individual effect. Maximum, local changes in 2 m temperature of the order of 1°C occur for the full breadth of albedo (ALB), minimum canopy resistance (RCMIN), and rooting depth (ROOT) specifications, while the regionally (105°W-75°W and 35°N-50°N) and monthly averaged response of 2 m temperature was most pronounced for the ALB and RCMIN experiments, exceeding 0.2°C. The full range of albedo variability associated with biofuel crops may be sufficient to drive regional changes in summertime rainfall. Individual parameter effects on 2 m temperature are additive, highlight the cooling contribution of higher leaf area index (LAI) and ROOT for perennial grasses (e.g., Miscanthus) versus annual crops (e.g., maize), and underscore the necessity of improving location- and vegetation-specific representation of RCMIN and ALB.

  15. The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Lifestyle Health Determinants Among Older Adults Living in the Mediterranean Region: The Multinational MEDIS Study (2005-2015).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foscolou, Alexandra; Tyrovolas, Stefanos; Soulis, George; Mariolis, Anargiros; Piscopo, Suzanne; Valacchi, Giuseppe; Anastasiou, Foteini; Lionis, Christos; Zeimbekis, Akis; Tur, Josep-Antoni; Bountziouka, Vassiliki; Tyrovola, Dimitra; Gotsis, Efthimios; Metallinos, George; Matalas, Antonia-Leda; Polychronopoulos, Evangelos; Sidossis, Labros; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B

    2017-01-01

    By the end of the 2000s, the economic situation in many European countries started to deteriorate, generating financial uncertainty, social insecurity and worse health status. The aim of the present study was to investigate how the recent financial crisis has affected the lifestyle health determinants and behaviours of older adults living in the Mediterranean islands. From 2005 to 2015, a population-based, multi-stage convenience sampling method was used to voluntarily enrol 2749 older adults (50% men) from 20 Mediterranean islands and the rural area of the Mani peninsula. Lifestyle status was evaluated as the cumulative score of four components (range, 0 to 6), that is, smoking habits, diet quality (MedDietScore), depression status (Geriatric Depression Scale) and physical activity. Older Mediterranean people enrolled in the study from 2009 onwards showed social isolation and increased smoking, were more prone to depressive symptoms, and adopted less healthy dietary habits, as compared to their counterparts participating earlier in the study (pcrisis had commenced. Public health interventions should focus on older adults, particularly of lower socioeconomic levels, in order to effectively reduce the burden of cardiometabolic disease at the population level.

  16. The "APEC Blue" Phenomenon: Impacts of Regional emission control Meteorology Condition and Regional Transport from a Modeling Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, M.; Carmichael, G. R.; Liu, Z.; Ji, D.; Saide, P. E.; Wang, Y.; Xin, J.

    2015-12-01

    On November 5-11, China hosted the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Week in Beijing. To ensure good air quality during the APEC week, a series of strict emission control measures were taken in Beijing and surrounding provinces, which provide us with a great opportunity to examine the effectiveness of regional emission control. As important as emissions, meteorology can also significantly affect air quality in Beijing, so it's meaningful to understand the impact of meteorology conditions in the APEC week. Besides, it's important to study the impact of regional transport as its contribution to Beijing pollution levels is controversial. In this study, we investigate the impacts of emission control, meteorology and regional transport on the air quality during APEC week using a fully online coupled meteorology-chemistry model WRF-Chem. Compared to surface observations, the model has very good performance. The conclusions from this study will provide useful insights for government to control aerosol pollution in Beijing.

  17. The Impact of Consuming Petroleum Products on Economic Growth and Regional Convergence in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teymur Rahmani

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available One of important subjects considered in models of economic growth is convergence hypothesis. It posits that if different regions have identical levels of log-term equilibrium per capita GDP, the poor regions would have higher rate of per capita GDP growth than rich ones. Therefore the more poor regions would converge towards richer regions in terms of economic conditions. However, since determining factors for long term per capita GDP is not the same in all of regions, the conditional convergence is suggested. This hypothesis states that farer regions from long term per capita GDP would have higher rate of per capita GDP. Since determining factors on economic growth can influence on convergence process, the impact of consuming petroleum products as a determining variable on economic growth has been studied. The model of Barro and Sala-I-Martin was applied in order to examine convergence and the impact of consuming petroleum products on convergence and also reduction of regional inequality among Iran's provinces from 2000 through 2011. Results indicated that there is an unconditional convergence among Iran's provinces and also variables of gasoline, diesel, and Mazut (fuel oil have significant impact on economic growth and lead to negative convergence among Iran's province. Hence, respecting these results it can be concluded that using energy subsides cannot reduce regional inequality.

  18. Assessing cumulative pressures and impacts in a regional scale: HELCOM Baltic Sea Impact Index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korpinen, S.; Meski, L.; Andersen, Jesper;

    of identifying hot spots needs to be replaced by spatial high-resolution maps associated with estimated impacts on key ecosystem components. The Baltic Sea Marine Environment Protection Commission (HELCOM) took a first step towards an initial regional assessment of anthropogenic pressures in the Initial Holistic...... of macrozoobenthic communities in some Baltic sub-basins and the results have suggested that more specific selection of pressures is needed in order to assess anthropogenic impacts on benthic habitats. Such an adaptation of the tool has already been tested to assess the sea-floor integrity under the MSFD qualitative...... Assessment of the Baltic Sea by producing the Baltic Sea Pressure Index (BSPI) and the Baltic Sea Impact Index (BSII). The BSPI visualizes cumulative anthropogenic pressures in the Baltic Sea scale, whereas the BSII consists of potential impacts of anthropogenic pressures on key ecosystem components...

  19. Winter cover crops impact on corn production in semiarid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cover crops have been proposed as a technique to increase soil health. This study examined the impact of winter brassica cover crop cocktails grown after wheat (Triticum aestivum) on corn yields; corn yield losses due to water and N stress; soil bacteria to fungi ratios; mycorrhizal markers; and ge...

  20. THE EVALUATION OF VORONEZH REGION RADIATION CONTAMINATION IMPACT OVER THIRTY YEARS’ PERIOD FOLLOWING THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. I. Stepkin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aimed at radiation contamination impact assessment due to the 1986 Chernobyl accident in Voronezh Region territory more than 600 kilometers away from the ground zero. The major Chernobyl accident impact assessment indicators were the characteristics of 137Cs and 90Sr radionuclides’ soil surface contamination (Ci/km2 as well as the average annual effective dose of critical population group ( mSv/year over 1986–2014. The Population oncological morbidity indicators were analyzed (all malignant neoplasms, including those in thyroid gland, lymphatic and hematopoietic tissue in the territories contrastingly differing on the levels of radiation factor impact. The study covered the period of 2010–2014.It was established that for Voronezh Region territories referred to as the post- Chernobyl radioactively contaminated zone over 29 years period the maximum soil surface contamination by 137Cs and 90Sr radionuclides reduced by 1.90 and 1.91 times (from 3,15 Ci/km2 to 1,66 Ci/km2 and from 0,063 Ci/km2 to 0,0033 Ci/km2, respectively.Currently the relationship was not found between the radioactive contamination density in Voronezh Region and the levels of malignant neoplasms for the local residents.The present situation related to radiation factor impact on Voronezh Region territories remains stable and safe. Mindful of the indicators results the assessment of ionizing sources impact did not identify any exceeding the normative values.

  1. Regional flood impact assessment for Kiel and Eckernförde, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shustikova, Iuliia; Viavattene, Christophe; Seiß, Guntram

    2017-04-01

    It is well-observed that extreme flood events bring considerable destruction to coastal communities. The estimates of damage increases when direct and indirect losses are both considered in the assessment. This study applied the INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model which is designed to estimate and compare not only tangible but also intangible losses such as risk to life, recovery mechanisms and household displacement. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was performed in order to compare hotspots of high flood risk on the regional scale and detect which impact indicators influence results the most. INDRA allowed assessing the following impact indicators: direct damages to buildings and roads, transport disruption, risk to life and financial recovery mechanisms of private households and businesses. The focus was on two hotspots of flood risk, where direct and indirect impacts from 200 years flood were assessed and analyzed in terms of relative importance to the region. The region here was defined as municipalities located on the Baltic Sea coast within the Schleswig-Holstein state, Germany. The hotspots are the towns of Kiel and Eckernförde. They are urban areas with a high concentration of people and assets, which previously experienced extreme flood events. From the performed investigation it was found out that modeled flood differently impacts Kiel and Eckernförde. The results produced by MCA show that the scores of direct and indirect damage are slightly higher in Eckernförde than in Kiel. Transport disruption is a compelling element in the performed regional impact assessment and demonstrated immense weight. Extreme events may pose significant direct and indirect impacts on the coastal roads, obstructing not only the access to important landmarks such as hospitals, train stations, harbors, etc. but also to contiguous municipalities. Yet, the analysis showed that other impact indicators are rather of local importance and would not cause vast damage on a

  2. Mapping Regional Drought Vulnerability: a Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karamouz, M.; Zeynolabedin, A.; Olyaei, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is among the natural disaster that causes damages and affects many people's life in many part of the world including in Iran. Recently, some factors such as climate variability and the impact of climate change have influenced drought frequency and intensity in many parts of the world. Drought can be divided into four categories of meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and social-economic. In meteorological the important feature is lack of rainfall. In hydrological drought river flows and dam storage are considered. Lack of soil moisture is the key factor in agricultural droughts while in social-economic type of drought the relation between supply and demand and social-economic damages due to water deficiency is studied. While the first three types relates to the lack of some hydrological characteristics, social-economic type of drought is actually the consequence of other types expressed in monetary values. Many indices are used in assessing drought; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. Therefore knowing the types of drought can provide a better understanding of shortages and their characteristics. Drought vulnerability is a concept which shows the likelihood of damages from hazard in a particular place by focusing on the system status prior to the disaster. Drought vulnerability has been viewed as a potential for losses in the region due to water deficiency at the time of drought. In this study the application of vulnerability concept in drought management in East Azarbaijan province in Iran is investigated by providing vulnerability maps which demonstrates spatial characteristics of drought vulnerability. In the first step, certain governing parameters in drought analysis such as precipitation, temperature, land use, topography, solar radiation and ground water elevation have been investigated in the region. They are described in details and calculated in suitable time series. Vulnerabilities

  3. MAPPING REGIONAL DROUGHT VULNERABILITY: A CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Karamouz

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Drought is among the natural disaster that causes damages and affects many people’s life in many part of the world including in Iran. Recently, some factors such as climate variability and the impact of climate change have influenced drought frequency and intensity in many parts of the world. Drought can be divided into four categories of meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and social-economic. In meteorological the important feature is lack of rainfall. In hydrological drought river flows and dam storage are considered. Lack of soil moisture is the key factor in agricultural droughts while in social-economic type of drought the relation between supply and demand and social-economic damages due to water deficiency is studied. While the first three types relates to the lack of some hydrological characteristics, social-economic type of drought is actually the consequence of other types expressed in monetary values. Many indices are used in assessing drought; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. Therefore knowing the types of drought can provide a better understanding of shortages and their characteristics. Drought vulnerability is a concept which shows the likelihood of damages from hazard in a particular place by focusing on the system status prior to the disaster. Drought vulnerability has been viewed as a potential for losses in the region due to water deficiency at the time of drought. In this study the application of vulnerability concept in drought management in East Azarbaijan province in Iran is investigated by providing vulnerability maps which demonstrates spatial characteristics of drought vulnerability. In the first step, certain governing parameters in drought analysis such as precipitation, temperature, land use, topography, solar radiation and ground water elevation have been investigated in the region. They are described in details and calculated in suitable time

  4. Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing input-output and computable general equilibrium models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koks, Elco E.; Carrera, Lorenzo; Jonkeren, Olaf; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Husby, Trond G.; Thissen, Mark; Standardi, Gabriele; Mysiak, Jaroslav

    2016-08-01

    A variety of models have been applied to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are input-output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing number of scholars have developed hybrid approaches: one that combines both or either of them in combination with noneconomic methods. While both IO and CGE models are widely used, they are mainly compared on theoretical grounds. Few studies have compared disaster impacts of different model types in a systematic way and for the same geographical area, using similar input data. Such a comparison is valuable from both a scientific and policy perspective as the magnitude and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses are born likely to vary with the chosen modelling approach (IO, CGE, or hybrid). Hence, regional disaster impact loss estimates resulting from a range of models facilitate better decisions and policy making. Therefore, this study analyses the economic consequences for a specific case study, using three regional disaster impact models: two hybrid IO models and a CGE model. The case study concerns two flood scenarios in the Po River basin in Italy. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of 7 between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact, comprising all Italian regions, is negative in all models though.

  5. Beta-Deacy Spectroscopy in the 100Sn Region:. Impact on Rp-Process Calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorusso, G.; Becerril, A.; Amthor, A.; Baumann, T.; Bazin, D.; Berryman, J. S.; Brown, B. A.; Cyburt, R. H.; Crawford, H. L.; Estrade, A.; Gade, A.; Ginter, T.; Hausmann, C. M.; Mantica, P. F.; Matos, M.; Meharchand, R.; Minamisono, K.; Montes, F.; Perdikakis, G.; Pereira, J.; Portillo, M.; Schatz, H.; Smith, K.; Stoker, J.; Stolz, A.; Zegers, R. G. T.; Guess, C. J.; Hitt, G. W.

    2013-06-01

    -decay in the neighborhood of 100Sn was studied at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory (NSCL). The new half-lives of 96,97Cd, along with several new -delayed proton emission branching ratio for nuclei in this region have an impact on the composition of type-I X-ray burst ashes predicted by network calculations.

  6. Market impact on cassava's development potential in the Atlantic Coast region of Colombia.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, W.G.

    1986-01-01

    The impact of markets on agricultural development was analyzed by means of a case study on cassava in the Atlantic Coast region of Colombia. In the development process, the demand for agricultural products changes considerably. Traditional food products, such as roots and tubers, face a decreasing d

  7. Market impact on cassava's development potential in the Atlantic Coast region of Colombia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, W.G.

    1986-01-01

    The impact of markets on agricultural development was analyzed by means of a case study on cassava in the Atlantic Coast region of Colombia. In the development process, the demand for agricultural products changes considerably. Traditional food products, such as roots and tubers, face a

  8. The Energy Networks Landscape. Impacts on Rural Land in the Molise Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donatella Cialdea

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper concerns the study of the energy infrastructure that have the most impact on rural land. The analysis focuses on the systems for wind power and ground–mounted photovoltaic plants.The case study is the Region of Molise, in Southern Italy. This Region is an emblematic case because it has a significant number of installations as seen in relationship with the whole national territory. The case becomes even more special with reference to local guidelines that have undergone successive formulations, precisely in relation to the installation in specific areas of the Region. The study analyzes current national and regional rules and it proposes a methodology to support Local Authorities especially in relation to the definition of landscape quality aims, that the new Regional Landscape Plan must provide.

  9. Impacts of seasonal and regional variability in biogenic VOC emissions on surface ozone in the Pearl River Delta region, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Situ

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the BVOC emissions in November 2010 over the Pearl River Delta (PRD region in southern China have been estimated by the latest version of a Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound (BVOC emission model (MEGAN v2.1. The evaluation of MEGAN performance at a representative forest site within this region indicates MEGAN can estimate BVOC emissions reasonably well in this region except overestimating isoprene emission in autumn for reasons that are discussed in this manuscript. Along with the output from MEGAN, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem is used to estimate the impacts of BVOC emissions on surface ozone in the PRD region. The results show BVOC emissions increase the daytime ozone peak by ~3 ppb on average, and the max hourly impacts of BVOC emissions on the daytime ozone peak is 24.8 ppb. Surface ozone mixing ratios in the central area of Guangzhou-Foshan and the western Jiangmen are most sensitive to BVOC emissions BVOCs from outside and central PRD influence the central area of Guangzhou-Foshan and the western Jiangmen significantly while BVOCs from rural PRD mainly influence the western Jiangmen. The impacts of BVOC emissions on surface ozone differ in different PRD cities, and the impact varies in different seasons. Foshan and Jiangmen being most affected in autumn, result in 6.0 ppb and 5.5 ppb increases in surface ozone concentrations, while Guangzhou and Huizhou become more affected in summer. Three additional experiments concerning the sensitivity of surface ozone to MEGAN input variables show that surface ozone is more sensitive to landcover change, followed by emission factors and meteorology.

  10. Impacts of seasonal and regional variability in biogenic VOC emissions on surface ozone in the Pearl River Delta region, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Situ, S.; Guenther, Alex B.; Wang, X. J.; Jiang, X.; Turnipseed, A.; Wu, Z.; Bai, J.; Wang, X.

    2013-12-05

    In this study, the BVOC emissions in November 2010 over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China have been estimated by the latest version of a Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound (BVOC) emission model (MEGAN v2.1). The evaluation of MEGAN performance at a representative forest site within this region indicates MEGAN can estimate BVOC emissions reasonably well in this region except overestimating isoprene emission in autumn for reasons that are discussed in this manuscript. Along with the output from MEGAN, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to estimate the impacts of BVOC emissions on surface ozone in the PRD region. The results show BVOC emissions increase the daytime ozone peak by *3 ppb on average, and the max hourly impacts of BVOC emissions on the daytime ozone peak is 24.8 ppb. Surface ozone mixing ratios in the central area of Guangzhou- Foshan and the western Jiangmen are most sensitive to BVOC emissions BVOCs from outside and central PRD influence the central area of Guangzhou-Foshan and the western Jiangmen significantly while BVOCs from rural PRD mainly influence the western Jiangmen. The impacts of BVOC emissions on surface ozone differ in different PRD cities, and the impact varies in different seasons. Foshan and Jiangmen being most affected in autumn, result in 6.0 ppb and 5.5 ppb increases in surface ozone concentrations, while Guangzhou and Huizhou become more affected in summer. Three additional experiments concerning the sensitivity of surface ozone to MEGAN input variables show that surface ozone is more sensitive to landcover change, followed by emission factors and meteorology.

  11. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ON INDIAN HIMALAYAN REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kavita Tariyal

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Himalayan region represents enormous variability of climates, hydrological and ecological systems, plus a diversity of cultures and communities. It is an essentiality to the ecological security of the Indian landmass, through providing forest cover, feeding recurrent rivers that are the source of potable water, irrigation, and hydropower, conserving biodiversity, providing a rich foundation for high value agriculture, and spectacular landscapes for sustainable tourism. Increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the troposphere and the consequential global warming is posing a great environmental threat to water and food security at universal level. Change in climate may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather, anthropogenic emissions, and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. This potential variability in climate will have a serious impact on several ecosystem services, such as cleaning water and removing carbon from the atmosphere. Various services of ecosystems viz. land and water resources, agriculture, biodiversity will experience a wide range of stresses together with pests and pathogens, invasive species, atmospheric pollution, acute events, wildfires and floods. Direct stresses posed due to climate change may get intensified through high temperatures, reduced water availability, and altered frequency of extreme events and severe storms. Climate change will potentially make a threat on the availability of, and access to, water resources. The Himalayan ecosystem is vulnerable to the impacts and consequences of a changes on account of natural causes, b climate change resulting from human-induced emissions and c developmental paradigms of the modern society. Adaptation factors in the element of ‘sustainability’ into development initiatives and provides for additional measures and resources to safeguard environmental gains against climate impacts.

  12. Impact of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide on the regional radiation budget

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. Vasilkov

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Following the launch of several satellite ultraviolet and visible spectrometers including the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI, much has been learned about the global distribution of nitrogen dioxide (NO2. NO2, which is mostly anthropogenic in origin, absorbs solar radiation at ultraviolet and visible wavelengths. We parameterized NO2 absorption for fast radiative transfer calculations. Using this parameterization with cloud, surface, and NO2 information from different sensors in the NASA A-train constellation of satellites and NO2 profiles from the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI, we compute the global distribution of net atmospheric heating due to tropospheric NO2 for January and July 2005. We assess the impact of clouds and find that because most of N02 is contained in the boundary layer in polluted regions, the cloud shielding effect can significantly reduce the net atmospheric heating due to NO2. We examine the effect of diurnal variations in NO2 emissions and chemistry on net atmospheric heating and find only a small impact of these on the daily-averaged heating. While the impact of NO2 on the global radiative forcing is small, locally it can produce instantaneous net atmospheric heating of 2–4 W/m2 in heavily polluted areas. We also examine the sensitivity of NO2 absorption to various geophysical conditions. Effects of the vertical distributions of cloud optical depth and NO2 on net atmospheric heating and downwelling radiance are simulated in detail for various scenarios including vertically-inhomogeneous convective clouds observed by CloudSat. The maximum effect of NO2 on downwelling radiance occurs when the NO2 is located in the middle part of the cloud where the optical extinction peaks.

  13. Impacted foreign bodies in orbital region: review of nine cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiago de Santana Santos

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Orbital injuries with a foreign body may result in severe structural and functional damage to the eye or orbital contents. Management and prognosis depend on the composition and location of the foreign body and whether there is secondary infection. Metallic objects and glass are the most frequently encountered and well-tolerated, whereas organic foreign bodies can elicit an inflammatory reaction and lead to serious complications. Despite the modern imaging methods, it is often difficult to identify and locate organic intraorbital foreign bodies. This paper presents a review of nine cases of impacted foreign bodies in the orbital region and discusses the diagnosis and treatment of this kind of injury. The following data were collected: age, gender, etiology of injury, occurrence of fracture, anatomical location of fracture, type of object, signs and symptoms, type of imaging exam used, approach, transoperative complication and occurrence of death. Foreign body injuries in the orbital region can be treated with a combination of clinical suspicion, basic knowledge and diagnostic tests and depend on the skill and experience of the surgeon, thereby decreasing the surgical risk of iatrogenic injury in relation to the inherent risk of retaining an organic intraorbital foreign body.

  14. Impacts of climate change on infrastructure in permafrost regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beloloutskaia, M.; Anisimov, O.

    2003-04-01

    There is a growing evidence of enhanced warming over the permafrost regions, and significant impacts on natural and human systems are expected. Changes in the temperature, distribution, and depth of seasonal thawing of permafrost will have direct and immediate implications for the infrastructure built upon it. The mechanical strength of permafrost decreases with warming, resulting in damage to and possible failure of buildings, pipelines, and transportation facilities. Extensive infrastructure was developed in the Arctic largely in association with the extraction and transportation industries. Several large cities in Russia with few hundred thousand population are of particular concern since many buildings there have already been affected by the changes in permafrost properties. Detrimental changes in permafrost conditions are often not abrupt. Instead, they evolve gradually and can be predicted and monitored, allowing avoidance of catastrophic events and mitigation of negative consequences. Climate-induced threats to infrastructure in permafrost regions may be evaluated using a numerical "settlement" index, Iset, which allows to classify modern permafrost with respect to its potential for thermokarst development: Iset = dZ * W, where dZ is the relative change in the depth of seasonal thawing predicted by permafrost model for the conditions of the future climate and W is the volumetric proportion of near surface soil occupied by ground ice. Permafrost model of intermediate complexity (Koudriavtcev's model) was used with selected GCM-based scenarios of climate change to construct predictive maps of "settlement" index for the mid-21st century. Circumpolar permafrost area was partitioned into zones of high, moderate, and low hazard potential. Despite discrepancies in details, all scenarios yield a zone in the high-risk category distributed discontinuously around the margins of the Arctic Ocean, indicating high potential for coastal erosion. Several population centers

  15. Impact of boundary regions on the interior circulation of the California Current System in a regional modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veneziani, M.; Edwards, C.; Moore, A.

    2008-12-01

    We use the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to model the circulation of the California Current System (CCS) using ECCO-GODAE products to force the model at the open boundaries of the domain. We investigate the impact that lateral boundary forcing (and the boundary region in general) has on particular metrics of the interior circulation by adopting both an adjoint model and a traditional sensitivity approach. Adjoint methods are naturally suited to sensitivity studies as they provide the direct dependencies of circulation metrics on uncertainties of the model initial conditions, surface and lateral external forcing, and model parameters, but their results are only valid within the time scale during which the linearity assumption underlying adjoint models can be considered to hold. More traditional sensitivity studies must be conducted to investigate longer time scales. We describe the adjoint model results for two metrics that represent the upwelling processes of the Central California region and the mean sea level field of the coastal circulation, respectively. The spatial distribution of the adjoint sensitivity fields allows us to quantify the contribution of the boundary regions over a biweekly time scale. We investigate longer time scales by adopting two methods: 1) apply different ECCO products at the open boundaries and evaluate mean stratification changes in the CalCOFI coastal region; 2) release passive tracers at the boundaries and calculate ventilation time scales and pathways from the boundary areas to the CCS interior.

  16. Aluminum honeycomb impact limiter study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yaksh, M.C.; Thompson, T.C. (Nuclear Assurance Corp., Norcross, GA (United States)); Nickell, R.E. (Applied Science and Technology, Inc., Poway, CA (United States))

    1991-07-01

    Design requirements for a cask transporting radioactive materials must include the condition of the 30-foot free fall of the cask onto an unyielding surface. To reduce the deceleration loads to a tolerable level for all the components of the cask, a component (impact limiter) is designed to absorb the kinetic energy. The material, shape, and method of attachment of the impact limiter to the cask body comprises the design of the impact limiter. The impact limiter material of interest is honeycomb aluminum, and the particular design examined was for the NAC Legal Weight Truck cask (NAC-LWT) for spent fuel from light water reactors. The NAC-LWT has a design weight of 52,000 pounds, and it has a nominal length of 200 inches. The report describes the numerical calculations embodied in the FADE program to determine the accelerations and crush strain resulting from an arbitrary height and angle of orientation. Since the program serves as a design tool, static tests are performed to assess the effect of the shell containing the honeycomb aluminum. The static tests and their results are contained in the study. The static tests are used to demonstrate for licensing purposes the level of accelerations imposed on the cask during a 30-foot drop. 3 refs., 41 figs., 15 tabs.

  17. Using Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) Data to Assess Impact Crater Modification in the Arrhenius Region of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garvin, J. B.; Grosfils, E. B.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.

    2000-01-01

    This study combines MOLA altimetry with photographic imagery to begin assessing the extent to which sedimentary and volcanic processes have affected impact crater morphology in the Arrhenius region of Mars.

  18. Impact of Recession on the Parameters of Quality of Regional Centres and their Attractiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samo Drobne

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the findings regarding the impact of recession that began in 2008 in Slovenia to the chosen parameters of quality of regional centres, which are reflected in their attractiveness. We wanted to test the assumption of the impact of recession to the attractiveness of regional centres to both internal migration and commuting flows. To this end, an adjusted gravity spatial interaction model was developed by evaluating regression coefficients. We analysedthe impacts of population size, distance, employment, gross personal income, municipality revenue per capita, average price per square metre of apartments and houses, and age structure in the municipality pertaining to the decision to potentially migrate or commute related to the migration and choice of workplace in the regional centre. The impact of the recession was analysed by comparing the estimations of regression coefficients before the recession (2007 and duringthe recession (2011. It is shown that during the recession, internal migrations to regional centres increased considerably, while commuting to regional centres did not change significantly. We alsoshowed that during the recession, the impact of the distance to the decision to migrate to regional centres slightly increased, while the impact of the distance to the decision to commute did not changesignificantly. Notably, during the crisis the impact of municipality revenue per capita in the regional centre to the analysed flows changed the most: during the recession, the decision to migrate and/orcommute to 'more prosperous' regional centres is made more easily.In the future, it is to be expected that local self-governments will make more effort to consider how to attract taxpayers to their local community and hence enrich the community, while the analysis of theseparameters will become more significant for the individual levels of the local self-government. Gravity models, such as the one used here, include different

  19. Regional issue identification and assessment: study methodology. First annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-01-01

    The overall assessment methodologies and models utilized for the first project under the Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA) program are described. Detailed descriptions are given of the methodologies used by lead laboratories for the quantification of the impacts of an energy scenario on one or more media (e.g., air, water, land, human and ecology), and by all laboratories to assess the regional impacts on all media. The research and assessments reflected in this document were performed by the following national laboratories: Argonne National Laboratory; Brookhaven National Laboratory; Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory; Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory; Oak Ridge National Laboratory; and Pacific Northwest Laboratory. This report contains five chapters. Chapter 1 briefly describes the overall study methodology and introduces the technical participants. Chapter 2 is a summary of the energy policy scenario selected for the RIIA I study and Chapter 3 describes how this scenario was translated into a county-level siting pattern of energy development. The fourth chapter is a detailed description of the individual methodologies used to quantify the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of the scenario while Chapter 5 describes how these impacts were translated into comprehensive regional assessments for each Federal Region.

  20. Making an Impact in the Kurdistan Region--Iraq. Summary of Four Studies to Assess the Present and Future Labor Market, Improve Technical Vocational Education and Training, Reform the Health Sector, and Build Data Collection Capacity. Research Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony, C. Ross; Constant, Louay; Culbertson, Shelby; Click, Peter; Kumar, Krishna B.; Meili, Robin C.; Moore, Melinda; Shatz, Howard J.; Vernez, Georges

    2015-01-01

    This executive summary describes key results from four studies carried out by the RAND Corporation as part of Phase II of its work for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The KRG asked RAND to undertake several studies aimed at improving the economic and social development of the Kurdistan Region--Iraq (KRI). RAND's work is intended to help…

  1. Analyses of Environmental Impacts of Non Hazardous Regional Landfills in Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katerina Donevska

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an assessment of potential environmental impacts for eight planned non-hazardous regional landfills in Macedonia. Waste quantities for each waste management region and landfill capacities are estimated. Expected leachate quantities are calculated using Water Balance Method. Analyses and comparison of the likely landfill leachate per capita are presented, demonstrating that higher rates of leachate are generated per capita in waste management regions with higher annual sums of rainfall. An assessment of the potential landfill impacts on the water environment taking into consideration local geology and hydrogeology conditions is presented. Some general measures for leachate treatment that are in compliance with the modern EU standards are indicated. The goal of the study is to facilitate a better understanding about the sustainable waste management practices in cases of landfilling of municipal solid waste.

  2. Potential Impact of Fulfilment of Minimum Essential Force (MEF to The Regional Welfare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joko Tri Haryanto

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available As with other aspects, the element of meeting the needs of national defence and security becomes very crucial aspect. These elements are not only coming from the domestic, but also related to the system of inter-state relations. To ensure the creation of the defence system and optimal security, policy will require minimum essential forces (MEF, which will outline the major components of the minimum requirements of national defence should be prepared to face any threats. The fulfilment of MEF must also provide welfare impacts for the region. For this reason this study was conducted with the purpose of calculating the impact of compliance with the MEF on the welfare of the region, especially in West Java province. IRIO using spatial approach, it can be concluded that the domestic defence industry is projected to have a role that is quite high, especially for the regional economy. To the West Java region, industrial goods of metal, in which there is the defence industry, encourage the creation of outputs and increase the income of workers. Although most of the economy and its impact enjoyed by workers in the territory, region or other provinces also continue to enjoy the effects of the increase in output and labour income.

  3. Analysis of possible impacts of climate change on the hydrological regimes of different regions in Germany

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    H. Bormann

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the impact of climate change scenarios on the hydrological regimes of five different regions in Germany is investigated. These regions (Northwest Germany, Northeast Germany and East German basins, upper and lower Rhine, pre-Alps differ with respect to present climate and projected climate change. The physically based SVAT-model SIMULAT is applied to theoretical soil columns based on combinations of land use, soil texture and groundwater depth to quantify climate change effects on the hydrological regime. Observed climate, measured at climate stations of the German Weather Service (1991–2007, is used for comparison with climate projections (2071–2100 generated by the regional scale climate model WETTREG.

    While all climate scenarios implicate an increase in precipitation in winter, a decrease in precipitation in summer and an increase in temperature, the simulated impacts on the hydrological regime are regionally different. In the Rhine region and in Northwest Germany, an increase in the annual runoff and groundwater recharge is simulated despite the increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration. In the Eastern part of Germany and the pre-Alps, annual runoff and groundwater recharge will decrease. Due to dry conditions in summer, the soil moisture deficit will increase (in Northeast Germany and the East German basins in particular or remain constant (Rhine region. In all regions the seasonal variability in runoff and soil moisture status will increase. Despite regional warming actual evapotranspiration will decrease in most regions except in areas with shallow groundwater tables and the lower Rhine. Although the study is limited by the fact that only one climate model was used to drive one hydrologic model, the study shows that the hydrological regime will be affected by climate change. The direction of the expected changes seems to be obvious as well as the necessity of the adaptation of future water

  4. NATIONAL AND SUB-NATIONAL OFFSHORING IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT: AN APPLICATION TO MADRID REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Ángeles Tobarra Gómez

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The effect of delocalization on a national economy has been widely studied, however subnational delocalization remains as an unvisited field for researchers. This paper studies the effects of fragmentation and the subsequent localization outside or abroad on the level of industrial and services employment in Madrid region. We work with Madrid data from regional input-output tables and estimate a labour demand function using panel data. Our results show a significant and small negative effect on regional employment of intra-industrial inputs from the national economy and abroad, while imported inputs from other sectors and origins are complementary to employment, resulting in a positive net effect on employment. The increasing specialization in main activities and the use of external providers by firms have a positive impact on the employment of Madrid region.

  5. Pluto's elongated dark regions formed by the Charon-forming giant impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genda, Hidenori; Sekine, Yusuhito; Kamata, Shunichi; Funatsu, Taro

    2017-04-01

    The New Horizons spacecraft has found elongated dark areas in the equatorial region of Pluto, which were informally called "the Whale" or Cthulhu Region (Stern et al. 2015). Here we examine the possibility that the dark areas on Pluto were formed by thermal alterations and polymerization of interstellar volatiles caused by a Charon-forming giant impact. Pluto is one of the largest Kuiper belt objects, which is highly likely to contain various interstellar volatiles, including aldehyde and ammonia. The previous study (Cordy et al. 2011) shows that these interstellar volatiles are thermally polymerized in solutions at high temperatures, forming complex insoluble organic solids. Given the satellite-to-planet mass ratio, the Pluto-Charon system is suggested to be of a giant impact origin (Canup 2005). Impact-induced heating on Pluto could have converted these volatile into complex organic matter in solution near the surface, which may explain the presence of dark areas in the equatorial region of Pluto. Here, we produce complex organic matter for various temperatures by thermal polymerization of formaldehyde and ammonia in solutions. By measuring the UV-VIS absorption spectra of the produced organic matter, we found that the color of the solution changes to be dark if the temerature is above 50 degree C for months or more. This duration corresponds to the cooling timescale of a water pond with 500-km thickness. By using SPH code (Genda et al. 2015), we carried out many simulations of a giant impact, and we found that a molten hot pond with > 500-km thickness is formed around the equatorial region of Pluto by a Charon-forming giant impact, if the water/rock mixing mass ratio is less than 1 or if the pre-impact interior temperature is 150 K. Both the dark equatorial region and a Charon-sized moon are formed when the pre-impact Pluto is undifferentiated. To keep a rock-rich Pluto undifferentiated at time of the giant impact, Pluto may have been formed >100 Myrs after CAIs

  6. Major Impact of Fleet Renewal Over Airports Located in the Most Important Region of Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maters, Rafael Waltz; deRoodeTorres, Roberta; Santo, Respicio A. Espirito, Jr.

    2003-01-01

    The present article discusses and analyses the major impacts of the Brazilian carriers fleet renewal regarding Brazilian airport infrastructure in the most important region of the country, the Southeast (SE). A brief historical overview of the country's airline fleet will be presented, demonstrating the need for its renewal (m fact, Brazilian carriers started a major fleet renewal program m the last five years), while analyzing the periods in which a new breed of aircraft was put into service by the major carriers operating in the SE region. The trend of operating the classic regional jets plus the forthcoming entry into service of the "large regional jets" (LRJ, 70-115 seaters) in several point-to-point routes are presented along with the country's carriers" reality of operating these former aircraft in several high-capacity and medium-range routes. The article will focus on the ability of four of the major Southeast's airports to cope with the fleet modernization, mainly due to the fact that the region studied is the most socioeconomic developed, by far, with the largest demand for air transportation, thus making the impacts much more perceptible for the communities and the airport management involved. With the emergence of these impacts, several new projects and investments are being discussed and pushed forward, despite budgetary constrains being a reality in almost every Brazilian city, even in the SE region. In view of this, the paper presents how the general planning could be carried out in order to adapt the airports' infrastructures in function of the proposed (and in some cases, necessary) fleet renewal. Ultimately, we will present the present picture and two future scenarios m order to determine the level of service in the existent passenger terminal facilities in the wake of the possible operation of several new aircraft. Keywords: Airline fleet planning, Airport planning, Regional development, Regional Jets.

  7. Regional impacts of technical change: the case of structural particleboard in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhi Xu; David N. Bengston; Hans M. Gregersen; Allen L. Lundgren

    1992-01-01

    Analyzes the regional impacts of research benefits in the United States due to the introduction of structural particleboard. The distribution of consumer benefits, producer benefits, direct employment impacts, and changes in wood requirements are analyzed for the four census regions. The distribution of benefits is found to differ widely between regions, indicating...

  8. The Impact of Imports on the Dynamics of the Regional Manufacturing Industry Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Olegovich Botkin

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study is to identify regions with the highest dependence on imports and assess the impact of imports on the dynamics of the manufacturing industry’s growth. The methodological framework of the study involves the use of well-known processing methods of regional static data. The paper presents an empirical study of imports volume and structure in the regional manufacturing industry for the period from 2005 to 2014, and groups them on the basis of the assessment of sustainability indicators. At the regional level, intermediate imports are characterized by a high heterogeneity both in absolute and relative terms. The significant volumes of imports are concentrated in few regions with a high industrial concentration. It allows to allocate regions with the greatest risks for the manufacturing sector in negative external environment. The study demonstrates the relationship of the intermediate imports with the growth dynamics of the manufacturing industry in a certain set of macroeconomic conditions, assuming the economic growth with the stable exchange rate and relatively high growth rate of the producer prices on the domestic market. We also found a positive impact of imports on the growth rate of manufacturing industry in this period due to the effects of market substitution. Thus, the limitation of import substitution in specialized regions at preservation of the basic external factors is emphasized. The obtained results can be used for strategic planning at various levels of management, defining the model and direction for growth of the industrial sector of the region and improving the methodological tools for further empirical research.

  9. The Relative Impact of Regional Scale Land Cover Change and Increasing CO2 over China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mei ZHAO; Andrew J. PITMAN

    2005-01-01

    A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280, 355,430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) ona 15-yr average following land cover change. We also found increases in the maximum temperature and in the diurnal temperature range due to land cover change. Increases in CO2 affect both the maximum and minimum temperature so that changes in the diurnal range are small. Both land cover change and CO2 change also impact the frequency distribution of precipitation with increasing CO2 tending to lead to more intense precipitation and land cover change leading to less intense precipitation-indeed, the impact of land cover change typically had the opposite effect versus the impacts of CO2. Our results provide support for the inclusion of future land cover change scenarios in long-term transitory climate modelling experiments of the 21st Century. Our results also support the inclusion of land surface models that can represent future land cover changes resulting from an ecological response to natural climate variability or increasing CO2. Overall, we show that land cover change can have a significant impact on the regional scale climate of China, and that regionally, this impact is of a similar magnitude to increases in CO2 of up to about 430 ppmv. This means that that the impact of land cover change must be accounted for in detection and attribution studies over China.

  10. Digital Sequences and a Time Reversal-Based Impact Region Imaging and Localization Method

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    Weifeng Qian

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available To reduce time and cost of damage inspection, on-line impact monitoring of aircraft composite structures is needed. A digital monitor based on an array of piezoelectric transducers (PZTs is developed to record the impact region of impacts on-line. It is small in size, lightweight and has low power consumption, but there are two problems with the impact alarm region localization method of the digital monitor at the current stage. The first one is that the accuracy rate of the impact alarm region localization is low, especially on complex composite structures. The second problem is that the area of impact alarm region is large when a large scale structure is monitored and the number of PZTs is limited which increases the time and cost of damage inspections. To solve the two problems, an impact alarm region imaging and localization method based on digital sequences and time reversal is proposed. In this method, the frequency band of impact response signals is estimated based on the digital sequences first. Then, characteristic signals of impact response signals are constructed by sinusoidal modulation signals. Finally, the phase synthesis time reversal impact imaging method is adopted to obtain the impact region image. Depending on the image, an error ellipse is generated to give out the final impact alarm region. A validation experiment is implemented on a complex composite wing box of a real aircraft. The validation results show that the accuracy rate of impact alarm region localization is approximately 100%. The area of impact alarm region can be reduced and the number of PZTs needed to cover the same impact monitoring region is reduced by more than a half.

  11. Sectoral and regional impacts of the European carbon market in Portugal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robaina Alves, Margarita, E-mail: mrobaina@ua.p [GOVCOPP and Department of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitario de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro (Portugal); Rodriguez, Miguel [Department of Applied Economics, University of Vigo, Facultade Empresariais e Turismo, 32004 Ourense (Spain); Roseta-Palma, Catarina, E-mail: catarina.roseta@iscte.p [Department of Economics and UNIDE, ISCTE-Lisbon University Institute, Av. Forcas Armadas, 1629-026 Lisboa (Portugal)

    2011-05-15

    Across Europe, CO{sub 2} emission allowances represent one of the main policy instruments to comply with the goals of the Kyoto Protocol. In this paper we use microdata to address two issues regarding the impact of the European Carbon Market (EU ETS). First, we analyze the sectoral effects of the EU ETS in Portugal. The goal is to study the distributive consequences of imbalances, with the novelty of taking into account firm financial data to put values into context. We show that a large majority of installations in most sectors had surpluses and the opportunity to raise remarkable revenues in some cases. We also look at the regional impact, since the pre-existing specialization of different regions in the production of different goods and services might lead to an uneven economic impact of the allowance market. In particular, Portuguese data indicate a distribution of revenue from low income to high income regions, or rather, between installations located in those regions. We focus on the first phase of the EU ETS, using data for each one of the 244 Portuguese installations in the market as well as financial data for 80% of these installations, although we also present data for 2008 and 2009. - Research highlights: {yields} Analysis of distributional impact of the EU ETS for Portuguese sectors and regions. {yields} EU ETS microdata, economic data and firm financial data used to provide context. {yields} Most installations had surpluses and in some cases may have raised notable revenues. {yields} There seems to be an income distribution effect from low to high-income regions. {yields} Thermoelectric generation most likely to be short, but results vary with rainfall.

  12. Regional EM studies in the 80's

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hjelt, S. E.

    1987-09-01

    The review describes in broad terms the development of regional EM studies during the last five-six years. Large simultaneous magnetometer arrays, broadband and dense profiling with five component instruments, the use of remote reference techniques and in-field data processing have increased both the number and the quality of EM surveys. The increase has been strong all over the world. An extensive list of references, divided geographically, is presented. Selected examples of regional resisitivity-versus-depth curves are shown for Africa, the Baikal region, the Baltic Shield, the Canadian Shield, the Carpathian regions, the Central Andes, Iceland, India, the Juan de Fuca Plate, the Münsterland Basin, the Rio Grande rift, the Scottish Caledonides, the Tasman Sea, and for the United States in general. Because of the influence of tectonic settings and the metamorphic grade of rocks, only qualitative aspects of the results are relevant. ‘Classical’ array studies, especially in Australia, in the Carpathian regions, in India, in North Germany and in Scotland have been reinterpreted and completed with more accurate 2D modelling and dense MT profiling. In the USA and Canada also new regions have been surveyed extensively. New regional EM work has been conducted extensively on the Baltic Shield and in Central and North Africa, Siberia, China, in the areas around the Caspian and Black Seas and in South America. The newest studies are supported by or compared with other geophysical data, which also are used in extrapolating for missing EM data density. There are several successful large-scale projects in operation: the European Geotraverse (EGT), the KAPG International Geotraverses and the EMSLAB project (with its first preliminary results). Regional EM studies have been increasingly applied to geothermal, hydrocarbon and mineral prospecting as well as local structural studies, e.g. studies of sites for nuclear waste disposal.

  13. Climate Change Impacts on the Congo Basin Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Franssen, W.; Jans, W.W.P.; Kruijt, B.; Supit, I.

    2012-01-01

    This report presents analyses of climate change impacts in the Congo Basin on water for agriculture and hydropower, forest ecosystem functioning and carbon storage and impacts of climate variability and change on future economic development. To quantify the impacts of future climate we developed a m

  14. Impact of Hypermarket Expansion on Regional Traditional Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bagas Haryotejo

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research are i identify the factors that influence consumers’ willingness; (ii the impact of hypermarkets in Indonesia to number of traders, opening hours, number of buyers, turnover traders in traditional markets, and the traditional market itself; (iii economic impact of hypermarkets on economic growth, employment, consumer and government revenues; (iv formulating policy recommendations to improve the performance of traditional markets and setting the establishment of hypermarkets. Secondary data analysis showed that every additional amount of modern markets (supermarkets not decrease the number of traditional markets (shops or stalls. This shows that modern markets and traditional markets are both growing and is "complementary" to each other. The study results indicate that the contribution to nonoil GDP of traditional markets (shops or stalls larger than the modern market (supermarket. However, the opposite condition occurs, the modern market (supermarkets in the province, has a greater contribution to revenues, compared to the municipal/district. In contrast, non-traditional markets have economic advantages from the standpoint of macro-economic interests, such as the provision of choice of business opportunities, employment and output contribution, although those options may cause conflict with the interests of local governments to raise the revenue.

  15. Assessment of Impacts of Climate Variability on Crop Yield over the Terai Region of Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subedi, S.; Acharya, A.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural sector in Nepal which alone contributes about 42 % of the total GDP have a huge influence on national economy. This sector is very much susceptible to climate change. This study is emphasized on Terai region (situated at an altitude of 60m to 300m) of Nepal which investigates the impacts of climate variability on various stages of cropping (paddy) periods such as transplant, maturity and harvest. The climate variables namely temperature and rainfall are used to explore the relationship between climate and paddy yields based on 30 years of historical observed data. Observed monthly rainfall and temperature data are collected from the department of hydrology and meteorology, and paddy yield data are collected from the Ministry of Agricultural Development. A correlation analysis will be carried out between the backward difference filtered climate parameters and the backward difference filtered rice yield. This study will also analyze average monthly and annual rainfall, and, min, max and mean temperature during the period of 1981-2010 based on 15 synoptic stations of Nepal. This study will visualize rainfall and temperature distribution over Nepal, and also evaluate the effect of change in rainfall and temperature in the paddy yield. While evaluating the impacts of climate on crop yield, this study will not consider the impact of irrigation in crop yield. The major results, climate distribution and its local/regional impacts on agriculture, could be utilized by planners, decision makers, and climate and agricultural scientists as a basis in formulating/implementing future plans, policies and projects.

  16. Impacto de la violencia colectiva en la salud: Resultados del estudio ISAVIC en el País Vasco Impact of collective violence on health status: Results of the ISAVIC study in the Basque Region (Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itziar Larizgoitia

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Objetivo: A pesar de la ubicuidad de la violencia y de su posible importancia para la salud de las personas y las colectividades, su papel y mecanismos de acción en este sentido no están apenas analizados. Este estudio, realizado en los años 2005-2008 en el País Vasco, trata de estimar la asociación de la violencia colectiva con la salud de sus víctimas primarias. Métodos: Se emparejó una muestra intencional de 33 víctimas primarias (receptores directos de la violencia o familiares en primer grado de personas asesinadas, en función de su edad, sexo, nivel de estudios y provincia de residencia, con sujetos (en una proporción 1:5 procedentes de una muestra representativa de la población mayor de 16 años residente en el País Vasco. Todos completaron un cuestionario que incluía medidas de salud (WHO-DAS-II-12, GHQ-12, SF-12, escalas de soledad y estigma y variables potencialmente mediadoras (apoyo y clima social, y otras. Se compararon mediante regresiones condicionales a la experiencia de violencia colectiva. Resultados: Las víctimas primarias presentan entre cuatro y siete veces un mayor riesgo de padecer peor salud física y emocional, y ocho veces más de sufrir alteraciones funcionales. También perciben una mayor soledad y estigma, y valoran negativamente el apoyo y el clima social. No se observó asociación en los sujetos que declararon exposición a una violencia interpersonal leve. Conclusiones: Los resultados sugieren que la violencia colectiva se asocia a una pérdida considerable de salud en las víctimas primarias. Su asociación en la población general requiere una investigación más específica.Objectives: Despite the ubiquity of violence and its possible impact on individual and collective health, the role and causal pathways of this phenomenon as a health determinant have not been widely studied. The present study was conducted between 2005 and 2008 in the Basque Region of Spain and aimed to estimate the health

  17. Assessing Regional Climate and Local Landcover Impacts on Vegetation with Remote Sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathaniel Brunsell

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Landcover change alters not only the surface landscape but also regional carbon and water cycling. The objective of this study was to assess the potential impacts of landcover change across the Kansas River Basin (KRB by comparing local microclimatic impacts and regional scale climate influences. This was done using a 25-year time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and precipitation (PPT data analyzed using multi-resolution information theory metrics. Results showed both entropy of PPT and NDVI varied along a pronounced PPT gradient. The scalewise relative entropy of NDVI was the most informative at the annual scale, while for PPT the scalewise relative entropy varied temporally and by landcover type. The relative entropy of NDVI and PPT as a function of landcover showed the most information at the 512-day scale for all landcover types, implying different landcover types had the same response across the entire KRB. This implies that land use decisions may dramatically alter the local time scales of responses to global climate change. Additionally, altering land cover (e.g., for biofuel production may impact ecosystem functioning at local to regional scales and these impacts must be considered for accurately assessing future implications of climate change.

  18. Impact of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on regional climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roeckner, E.; Stier, P.; Feichter, J.; Kloster, S.; Esch, M.; Fischer-Bruns, I.

    2006-11-01

    The past and future evolution of atmospheric composition and climate has been simulated with a version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The system consists of the atmosphere, including a detailed representation of tropospheric aerosols, the land surface, and the ocean, including a model of the marine biogeochemistry which interacts with the atmosphere via the dust and sulfur cycles. In addition to the prescribed concentrations of carbon dioxide, ozone and other greenhouse gases, the model is driven by natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol), and by emissions of mineral dust, sea salt, sulfur, black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM). Transient climate simulations were performed for the twentieth century and extended into the twenty-first century, according to SRES scenario A1B, with two different assumptions on future emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (BC, POM). In the first experiment, BC and POM emissions decrease over Europe and China but increase at lower latitudes (central and South America, Africa, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia). In the second experiment, the BC and POM emissions are frozen at their levels of year 2000. According to these experiments the impact of projected changes in carbonaceaous aerosols on the global mean temperature is negligible, but significant changes are found at low latitudes. This includes a cooling of the surface, enhanced precipitation and runoff, and a wetter surface. These regional changes in surface climate are caused primarily by the atmospheric absorption of sunlight by increasing BC levels and, subsequently, by thermally driven circulations which favour the transport of moisture from the adjacent oceans. The vertical redistribution of solar energy is particularly large during the dry season in central Africa when the anomalous atmospheric heating of up to 60 W m-2 and a corresponding decrease in surface solar radiation leads to a marked surface cooling, reduced

  19. 我国农业政策性金融发展的区域差异及其影响研究%Study on the Regional Difference of Agricultttral Policy Finance and Its Impact

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黎翠梅; 陈宇佳

    2012-01-01

    在对我国粮食主销区、主产区和产销平衡区农业政策性金融进行比较分析的基础上,运用面板数据模型实证检验了农业政策性金融对区域农业经济增长的影响。研究表明,在我国对农业政策性金融特殊的制度安排和职能定位下,农业政策性金融信贷规模区域差异明显,但信贷结构趋同,而且农业政策性金融仅对主产区农业经济增长具有显著的促进作用。为此,要结合区域农业经济特色,制定农业政策性金融区域发展战略。%Based on the comparatively analysis of agricultural policy finance in the grain main - producing region, main- selling region, and equilibrium region in production and selling, the article empirically tests the im- pact of agricultural policy finance on regional agricultural economic growth by using panel data models. The result shows that under the special institutional arrangement and function orientation, agricultural policy finance has obvi- ous regional differences in loan scale but has no significant regional difference in loan structure, and agricultural policy finance has an obvious positive impact on agricultural economic growth only in grain main - producing re- gion. So, it is important to make the regional development strategy of agricultural policy finance according to re- gional agricultural economic characteristics.

  20. Impacts of Amazon deforestation on regional weather and climate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, D.; Walko, R. L.; Avissar, R.

    2010-12-01

    Recent deforestation projections estimate that 40% of the Amazon rainforest will be deforested by 2050. Many modeling studies have indicated that deforestation will reduce average rainfall in the Amazon. However, very few studies have investigated the potential for deforestation to change the frequency and intensity of extreme climate and weather events. To fill this gap in our understanding, we use a variable-resolution GCM to investigate how precipitation and temperature extremes throughout South America respond to deforestation. The model’s grid mesh is set up to cover South America and nearby oceans at mesoscale (25 km) resolution, and then to gradually coarsen and cover the rest of the world at 200 km resolution. This approach differs from the two most common current approaches: (1) to use a GCM with too coarse of a resolution to evaluate regional climate extremes, or (2) to use a regional atmospheric model that requires lateral boundary conditions from a GCM or reanalysis. We find that deforestation induces large changes in winter (June-July-August) climate throughout much of South America. Extreme cold events become much more common along the eastern slopes of the Andes. The largest changes were in the western Amazon and, surprisingly, in Argentina, far from the actual deforested area. We also find shifts in precipitation extremes, especially in September-October-November. Such changes in temperature and precipitation extremes have important consequences for agriculture, natural ecosystems, and human society.

  1. Trans-boundary Air Quality and Health Impacts of Emissions in Various Regions in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Y.; Yim, S. H. L.

    2015-12-01

    In last few decades, China has gone through a rapid development, resulting in urbanization and industrialization. However, the abundant economic achievements were gained at the cost of a sharp deterioration of air quality. Previous research has reported the adverse health outcome from outdoor air pollution in China. Nevertheless, the trans-boundary air quality and health impacts due to emissions in various regions in China have yet fully understood. Our study aims to comprehensively apportion the attribution of emissions in seven regions in China, which are defined based on their geographical locations, to air pollutions, as well as the resultant health impacts in their local areas and other regions, provinces, and cities in China. A regional air quality model is applied to simulate the physical and chemical processes of various pollutants in the atmosphere. The resultant health outcome, such as premature death, is estimated by using the concentration-response functions reported in the literature. We anticipate that our results would serve as a critical reference for research community and policy makers to mitigate the air quality and health impacts of emissions in China.

  2. Organized crime impact study highlights

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porteous, S.D.

    1998-10-01

    A study was conducted to address the issue of how organized crime impacts on Canadians and their communities both socially and economically. As far as environmental crime is concerned, three main areas of concern have been identified: (1) illicit trade in ozone depleting substances, (2) illicit hazardous waste treatment, and (3) disposal of illicit trade in endangered species. To gauge the magnitude of organized crime activity, the market value of worldwide illegal trafficking in illicit drugs was estimated to be as high as $100 billion worldwide (between $1.4 to 4 billion in Canada). It is suspected that Canada supplies a substantial portion of the U.S. black market in chlorofluorocarbons with most of the rest being supplied from Mexico. Another area of concern involves the disposal of hazardous wastes. Canada produces approximately 5.9 million tonnes of hazardous waste annually. Of these, 3.2 million tonnes are sent to off-site disposal facilities for specialized treatment and recycling. The treatment of hazardous waste is a very profitable business, hence vulnerable to fraudulent practices engaged in by organized crime groups. Environmental implications of this and other environmental crimes, as well as their economic, commercial, health and safety impact were examined. Other areas of organized crime activity in Canada (drugs, economic crimes, migrant trafficking, counterfeit products, motor vehicle theft, money laundering) were also part of the study.

  3. Spectroscopic studies of star forming regions

    OpenAIRE

    2006-01-01

    This paper reviews the results of studies of star forming regions, carried out at the Konkoly Observatory in the last two decades. The studies involved distance determination of star-forming dark clouds, search for candidate pre-main sequence stars, and determination of the masses and ages of the candidates by spectroscopic follow-up observations. The results expanded the list of the well-studied star forming regions in our galactic environment. Data obtained by this manner may be useful in a...

  4. Economic impact of HIV and antiretroviral therapy on education supply in high prevalence regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire L Risley

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We set out to estimate, for the three geographical regions with the highest HIV prevalence, (sub-Saharan Africa [SSA], the Caribbean and the Greater Mekong sub-region of East Asia, the human resource and economic impact of HIV on the supply of education from 2008 to 2015, the target date for the achievement of Education For All (EFA, contrasting the continuation of access to care, support and Antiretroviral therapy (ART to the scenario of universal access. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A costed mathematical model of the impact of HIV and ART on teacher recruitment, mortality and absenteeism (Ed-SIDA was run using best available data for 58 countries, and results aggregated by region. It was estimated that (1 The impact of HIV on teacher supply is sufficient to derail efforts to achieve EFA in several countries and universal access can mitigate this. (2 In SSA, the 2008 costs to education of HIV were about half of those estimated in 2002. Providing universal access for teachers in SSA is cost-effective on education returns alone and provides a return of $3.99 on the dollar. (3 The impacts on education in the hyperendemic countries in Southern Africa will continue to increase to 2015 from its 2008 level, already the highest in the world. (4 If treatment roll-out is successful, numbers of HIV positive teachers are set to increase in all the regions studied. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The return on investing in care and support is also greater in those areas with highest impact. SSA requires increased investment in teacher support, testing and particularly ART if it is to achieve EFA. The situation for teachers in the Caribbean and East Asia is similar but on a smaller scale proportionate to the lower levels of infection and greater existing access to care and support.

  5. Wintertime Air Quality Impacts from Oil and Natural Gas Drilling Operations in the Bakken Formation Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evanoski-Cole, Ashley; Sive, Barkley; Zhou, Yong; Prenni, Anthony; Schurman, Misha; Day, Derek; Sullivan, Amy; Li, Yi; Hand, Jenny; Gebhart, Kristi; Schichtel, Bret; Collett, Jeffrey

    2016-04-01

    Oil and natural gas extraction has dramatically increased in the last decade in the United States due to the increased use of unconventional drilling techniques which include horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. The impact of these drilling activities on local and regional air quality in oil and gas basins across the country are still relatively unknown, especially in recently developed basins such as the Bakken shale formation. This study is the first to conduct a comprehensive characterization of the regional air quality in the Bakken region. The Bakken shale formation, part of the Williston basin, is located in North Dakota and Montana in the United States and Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada. Oil and gas drilling operations can impact air quality in a variety of ways, including the generation of atmospheric particulate matter (PM), hazardous air pollutants, ozone, and greenhouse gas emissions. During the winter especially, PM formation can be enhanced and meteorological conditions can favor increased concentrations of PM and other pollutants. In this study, ground-based measurements throughout the Bakken region in North Dakota and Montana were collected over two consecutive winters to gain regional trends of air quality impacts from the oil and gas drilling activities. Additionally, one field site had a comprehensive suite of instrumentation operating at high time resolution to gain detailed characterization of the atmospheric composition. Measurements included organic carbon and black carbon concentrations in PM, the characterization of inorganic PM, inorganic gases, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), precipitation and meteorology. These elevated PM episodes were further investigated using the local meteorological conditions and regional transport patterns. Episodes of elevated concentrations of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide were also detected. The VOC concentrations were analyzed and specific VOCs that are known oil and gas tracers were used

  6. The regional impact of urban emissions on climate over central Europe: present and future emission perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huszár, Peter; Belda, Michal; Karlický, Jan; Pišoft, Petr; Halenka, Tomáš

    2016-10-01

    with the temperature decrease. The impact on the boundary layer height is small but statistically significant and decreases by 1 and 6 m in DJF and JJA respectively. We did not find any statistically significant impact on precipitation and wind speed. Regarding future emissions, the impacts are, in general, smaller as a consequence of smaller emissions, resulting in smaller urban-induced chemical perturbations.In overall, the study suggest that the non-CO2 emissions play rather a minor role in modulating regional climate over central Europe. Much more important is the direct climate impact of urban surfaces via the urban canopy meteorological effects as we showed earlier.

  7. Local and regional smoke impacts from prescribed fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Owen F.; Horsey, Bronwyn; Jiang, Ningbo

    2016-10-01

    Smoke from wildfires poses a significant threat to affected communities. Prescribed burning is conducted to reduce the extent and potential damage of wildfires, but produces its own smoke threat. Planners of prescribed fires model the likely dispersion of smoke to help manage the impacts on local communities. Significant uncertainty remains about the actual smoke impact from prescribed fires, especially near the fire, and the accuracy of smoke dispersal models. To address this uncertainty, a detailed study of smoke dispersal was conducted for one small (52 ha) and one large (700 ha) prescribed fire near Appin in New South Wales, Australia, through the use of stationary and handheld pollution monitors, visual observations and rain radar data, and by comparing observations to predictions from an atmospheric dispersion model. The 52 ha fire produced a smoke plume about 800 m high and 9 km long. Particle concentrations (PM2.5) reached very high peak values (> 400 µg m-3) and high 24 h average values (> 100 µg m-3) at several locations next to or within ˜ 500 m downwind from the fire, but low levels elsewhere. The 700 ha fire produced a much larger plume, peaking at ˜ 2000 m altitude and affecting downwind areas up to 14 km away. Both peak and 24 h average PM2.5 values near the fire were lower than for the 52 ha fire, but this may be because the monitoring locations were further away from the fire. Some lofted smoke spread north against the ground-level wind direction. Smoke from this fire collapsed to the ground during the night at different times in different locations. Although it is hard to attribute particle concentrations definitively to smoke, it seems that the collapsed plume affected a huge area including the towns of Wollongong, Bargo, Oakdale, Camden and Campbelltown (˜ 1200 km2). PM2.5 concentrations up to 169 µg m-3 were recorded on the morning following the fire. The atmospheric dispersion model accurately predicted the general

  8. Sector-wise midpoint characterization factors for impact assessment of regional consumptive and degradative water use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chia-Chun; Lin, Jia-Yu; Lee, Mengshan; Chiueh, Pei-Te

    2017-12-31

    Water availability, resulting from either a lack of water or poor water quality is a key factor contributing to regional water stress. This study proposes a set of sector-wise characterization factors (CFs), namely consumptive and degradative water stresses, to assess the impact of water withdrawals with a life cycle assessment approach. These CFs consider water availability, water quality, and competition for water between domestic, agricultural and industrial sectors and ecosystem at the watershed level. CFs were applied to a case study of regional water management of industrial water withdrawals in Taiwan to show that both regional or seasonal decrease in water availability contributes to a high consumptive water stress, whereas water scarcity due to degraded water quality not meeting sector standards has little influence on increased degradative water stress. Degradative water stress was observed more in the agricultural sector than in the industrial sector, which implies that the agriculture sector may have water quality concerns. Reducing water intensity and alleviating regional scale water stresses of watersheds are suggested as approaches to decrease the impact of both consumptive and degradative water use. The results from this study may enable a more detailed sector-wise analysis of water stress and influence water resource management policies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Assessing the impact of urbanization on regional net primary productivity in Jiangyin County, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C; Liu, M; An, S; Chen, J M; Yan, P

    2007-11-01

    Urbanization is one of the most important aspects of global change. The process of urbanization has a significant impact on the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The Yangtze Delta region has one of the highest rates of urbanization in China. In this study, carried out in Jiangyin County as a representative region within the Yangtze Delta, land use and land cover changes were estimated using Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. With these satellite data and the BEPS process model (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator), the impacts of urbanization on regional net primary productivity (NPP) and annual net primary production were assessed for 1991 and 2002. Landsat-based land cover maps in 1991 and 2002 showed that urban development encroached large areas of cropland and forest. Expansion of residential areas and reduction of vegetated areas were the major forms of land transformation in Jiangyin County during this period. Mean NPP of the total area decreased from 818 to 699 gCm(-2)yr(-1) during the period of 1991 to 2002. NPP of cropland was only reduced by 2.7% while forest NPP was reduced by 9.3%. Regional annual primary production decreased from 808 GgC in 1991 to 691 GgC in 2002, a reduction of 14.5%. Land cover changes reduced regional NPP directly, and the increasing intensity and frequency of human-induced disturbance in the urbanized areas could be the main reason for the decrease in forest NPP.

  10. Impact of external industrial sources on the regional and local air quality of Mexico Megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almanza, Victor; Molina, Luisa T.; Li, Guohui; Fast, Jerome; Sosa, Gustavo

    2014-05-01

    The air quality of megacities can be influenced by external emissions sources on both regional and global scales. At the same time their outflow emissions can exert an important impact to the surrounding environment. The present study evaluates an SO2 peak observed on 24 March 2006 at the suburban supersite and ambient air quality monitoring stations located in the northern region of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) during MILAGRO campaign. We found that this peak could be related to an important episodic emission event coming from Tizayuca region, northeast of the MCMA. Back trajectories analyses suggest that the emission event started in the early morning at 04:00 LST and lasted for about 9 hours. The estimated emission rate is high, about 2 kg s-1. This finding suggests the possibility of 'overlooked' emission sources in Tizayuca region that could influence the air quality of the MCMA. This further motivated us to study the cement plants, including those in the State of Hidalgo and the State of Mexico. We found that they can also contribute SO2 in the NE region of the basin, at the suburban supersite and that at some monitoring stations; their contribution can be even higher than from the Tula Industrial Complex (TIC). The contribution of TIC to regional ozone levels is also estimated. The model suggests low contribution to the MCMA and slightly higher contribution at the suburban and rural supersites. However, the contribution could be high in the upper northwest region of the basin and in the southwest and south-southeast regions of the State of Hidalgo. In addition, a first estimate of the potential contribution from flaring activities to regional ozone levels is presented. Results suggest that part of the total regional ozone from TIC-generated precursors could be related to flaring activities.

  11. Biogeomorphic and pedogenic impact of trees in three soil regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawlik, Łukasz; Šamonil, Pavel

    2017-04-01

    Vegetation is an important factor of soil formation which together with topography, geology, climate and time modulates chemical and physical soil characteristics. Tree/soils/regolith interaction was recognized in recently uprooted trees and relict treethrow mounds and pits. In our present study we focus on effects of individual standing trees in pedogenesis and biogeomorphic processes. Constant pressure of tree root systems, changing hydric and temperature regime, together with rhizospheric microbes and root mycorrhizal associations may cause multiscale alterations to regolith and soils. We hypothesize different soil chemical properties under old tree stumps compared to unaffected control pedon resulted from affected pedogenetical pathways at the analyzed microsites. The present project highlights changes in soil properties under tree stumps in three different soil regions: Haplic Cambisols (Turbacz Reserve, Gorce Mts., Poland, hereafter HC), Entic Podzols (Zofin Reserve, Novohradske Mts., the Czech Republic, hereafter EP), Albic Podzols (Upper Peninsula, Michigan, USA, hereafter AP). These three regions represent different degrees of soil weathering and leaching. Pedons under fir, beech and hemlock stumps, as well as unaffected control pedons were sampled and laboratory analyzed for several chemical properties; active and exchangeable soil reaction, oxidized carbon, total nitrogen, and various forms of Fe, Al, Mn and Si. At the same time we studied age of the sampled tree stumps, as well as age of their death using radiocarbon technique and dendrochronology. While no effects of the soil-trees interactions can be visible on hillslope surface, we found important evidence of biomechanical activities of tree roots (e.g. root channels) and biochemical changes which add to the discussion about biogeomorphic and pedogenic significance of trees and tree roots as drivers of biomechanical weathering and soil processes in the decadal and centennial time scales. Preliminary

  12. Using Adjoint-Based Forecast Sensitivity Method to Evaluate TAMDAR Data Impacts on Regional Forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyan Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the impact of Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR observations on regional 24-hour forecast error reduction over the Continental United States (CONUS domain using adjoint-based forecast sensitivity to observation (FSO method as the diagnostic tool. The relative impact of TAMDAR observations on reducing the forecast error was assessed by conducting the WRFDA FSO experiments for two two-week-long periods, one in January and one in June 2010. These experiments assimilated operational TAMDAR data and other conventional observations, as well as GPS refractivity (GPSREF. FSO results show that rawinsonde soundings (SOUND and TAMDAR exhibit the largest observation impact on 24 h WRF forecast, followed by GeoAMV, aviation routine weather reports (METAR, GPSREF, and synoptic observations (SYNOP. At 0000 and 1200 UTC, TAMDAR has an equivalent impact to SOUND in reducing the 24-hour forecast error. However, at 1800 UTC, TAMDAR has a distinct advantage over SOUND, which has the sparse observation report at these times. In addition, TAMDAR humidity observations at lower levels of the atmosphere (700 and 850 hPa have a significant impact on 24 h forecast error reductions. TAMDAR and SOUND observations present a qualitatively similar observation impact between FSO and Observation System Experiments (OSEs.

  13. Blastopathies and microcephaly in a Chornobyl impacted region of Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wertelecki, Wladimir; Yevtushok, Lyubov; Zymak-Zakutnia, Natalia; Wang, Bin; Sosyniuk, Zoriana; Lapchenko, Serhiy; Hobart, Holly H

    2014-01-01

    This population-based descriptive epidemiology study demonstrates that rates of conjoined twins, teratomas, neural tube defects, microcephaly, and microphthalmia in the Rivne province of Ukraine are among the highest in Europe. The province is 200 km distant from the Chornobyl site and its northern half, a region known as Polissia, is significantly polluted by ionizing radiation. The rates of neural tube defects, microcephaly and microphthalmia in Polissia are statistically significantly higher than in the rest of the province. A survey of at-birth head size showed that values were statistically smaller in males and females born in one Polissia county than among neonates born in the capital city. These observations provide clues for confirmatory and cause-effect prospective investigations. The strength of this study stems from a reliance on international standards prevalent in Europe and a decade-long population-based surveillance of congenital malformations in two distinct large populations. The limitations of this study, as those of other descriptive epidemiology investigations, is that identified cause-effect associations require further assessment by specific prospective investigations designed to address specific teratogenic factors. PMID:24666273

  14. Great Lakes Offshore Wind Project: Utility and Regional Integration Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loparo, Kenneth A.; Sajadi, Amir; D' Aquila, Robert; Clark, Kara; Waligorski, Joseph; Baker, Scott

    2016-06-30

    This project aims to identify transmission system upgrades needed to facilitate offshore wind projects as well as operational impacts of offshore generation on operation of the regional transmission system in the Great Lakes region. A simulation model of the US Eastern Interconnection was used as the test system as a case study for investigating the impact of the integration of a 1000MW offshore wind farm operating in Lake Erie into FirstEnergy/PJM service territory. The findings of this research provide recommendations on offshore wind integration scenarios, the locations of points of interconnection, wind profile modeling and simulation, and computational methods to quantify performance, along with operating changes and equipment upgrades needed to mitigate system performance issues introduced by an offshore wind project.

  15. National and regional economic impacts of electricity production from energy crops in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vlasblom, J.; Broek, R. van den; Meeusen-van Onna, M.

    2002-01-01

    Besides the known environmental benefits, national and regional economic impacts may form additional arguments for stimulating government measures in favour of electricity production from energy crops in the Netherlands. Therefore, we compared the economic impacts (at both national and regional leve

  16. 77 FR 59703 - Environmental Impact Statement; Taos Regional Airport, Taos, NM

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-28

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Environmental Impact Statement; Taos Regional Airport, Taos, NM AGENCY...) for the ``Taos Regional Airport, Airport Layout Plan Improvements'' Environmental Impact Statement... requested the FAA to approve revisions to its Airport Layout Plan (ALP) to reflect and allow construction...

  17. The Impact of Innovation on the National and Regional Competitiveness within the European Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Elena Iosif

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Many studies have revealed the positive relationship between economic growth, and implicitly competitiveness, and innovation. The aim of the current paper is to test the impact of several indicators of innovation on the most relevant competitiveness indexes. These indexes are developed by the World Economic Forum, the Institute for Management Development or under the coordination of the European Union and their purpose is to quantify competitiveness. The current research is looking to the national and regional level within the European Union. In order to test the connection between competitiveness and innovation econometrical analyzes were carried out. Overall, the results indicated that indicators of innovation related to „human resources‟, „intellectual assets‟, and „finance and support‟ have a positive impact on competitiveness. The differences and similarities between the impact of innovation on the national and regional competitiveness are pointed out. Knowing these particularities, the policy makers may formulate adequate national and regional policies to stimulate innovation. Several policy recommendations focused on the validated variables of innovation were formulated. The current paper brings an added value to the literature by revealing the positive connections developed between the most relevant indexes of competitiveness and indicators of innovation.

  18. [Impact of the Overlap Region Between Acoustic and Electric Stimulation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann, Uwe; Mocka, Moritz

    2017-06-01

    Patients with residual hearing in the low frequencies and ski-slope hearing loss with partial deafness at medium and high frequencies receive a cochlear implant treatment with electric-acoustic stimulation (EAS, "hybrid" stimulation). In the border region between electric and acoustic stimulation a superposition of the 2 types of stimulation is expected. The area of overlap is determined by the insertion depth of the stimulating electrode and the lower starting point of signal transmission provided by the CI speech processor. The study examined the influence of the variation of the electric-acoustic overlap area on speech perception in noise, whereby the width of the "transmission gap" between the 2 different stimulus modalities was varied by 2 different methods. The results derived from 9 experienced users of the MED-EL Duet 2 speech processor show that the electric-acoustic overlapping area and with it the crossover frequency between the acoustic part and the CI should be adjusted individually. Overall, speech reception thresholds (SRT) showed a wide variation of results in between subjects. Further studies shall investigate whether generalized procedures about the setting of the overlap between electric and acoustic stimulation are reasonable, whereby an increased number of subjects and a longer period of acclimatization prior to the conduction of hearing tests deemed necessary. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  19. Regional diversity reverses the negative impacts of an alien predator on local species-poor communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loewen, Charlie J G; Vinebrooke, Rolf D

    2016-10-01

    Species diversity is often an implicit source of biological insurance for communities against the impacts of novel perturbations, such as the introduction of an invasive species. High environmental heterogeneity (e.g., a mountainous gradient) is expected to beget greater regional species diversity and variation in functional traits related to environmental tolerances. Thus, heterogeneous metacommunities are expected to provide more tolerant colonists that buffer stressed local communities in the absence of dispersal limitation. We tested the hypothesis that importation of a regional zooplankton pool assembled from a diverse array of lakes and ponds lessens the impacts of a novel predator on local species-poor alpine communities by increasing response diversity (i.e., diversity of tolerances to environmental change) as mediated by variation in functional traits related to predator evasion. We also tested whether impacts varied with temperature, as warming may modify (e.g., dampen or amplify) invasion effects. An eight-week factorial experiment ([fishless vs. introduced Oncorhynchus mykiss (rainbow trout)] × [ambient temperature vs. heated] × [local vs. local + regional species pool]) was conducted using 32 1,000-L mesocosms. Associations between experimental treatments and species functional traits were tested by R-mode linked to Q-mode (RLQ) and fourth-corner analyses. Although the introduced predator suppressed local species richness and community biomass, colonization by several montane zooplankters reversed these negative effects, resulting in increased species diversity and production. Invasion resistance was unaffected by higher temperatures, which failed to elicit any significance impacts on the community. We discovered that the smaller body sizes of imported species drove functional overcompensation (i.e., increased production) in invaded communities. The observed ecological surprise showed how regionally sourced biodiversity from a highly

  20. Multiline Study of Galactic Star Forming Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mookerjea, B.; Kramer, C.; Jakob, H.; Stutzki, J.

    We present first results of observations with SMART at KOSMA of selected Galactic star forming regions in mid-J (4-3) and (7-6) rotational transitions of CO and the two fine structure transitions of C I at 492 and 810 GHz. The aim of this study is to understand the interplay of the physical and chemical structure of the interstellar matter and the UV radiation field from the stars within the molecular clouds by observing the Photon Dominated Regions (PDRs). During this ongoing observational programme, regions around Orion BN/KL, W3, S106, S140 have been observed. Here we present the first results of observations of the W3 region (Jakob et al. 2002). These observations will be combined with existing observations of the emission due to low-J transitions of CO and other tracers of PDRs. The database of intensities of different lines from each of these regions will be used to derive a self-consistent interpretation using the PDR model developed by Störzer, Stutzki, & Sternberg (1996).

  1. Siberia Integrated Regional Study megaproject: approaches, first results and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordov, E. P.; Vaganov, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Siberia Integrated Regional Study (SIRS, http://sirs.scert.ru/en/) is a NEESPI megaproject coordinating national and international activity in the region in line with Earth System Science Program approach whose overall objectives are to understand impact of Global change on on-going regional climate and ecosystems dynamics; to study future potential changes in both, and to estimate possible influence of those processes on the whole Earth System dynamics. Needs for SIRS are caused by accelerated warming occurring in Siberia, complexity of on-going and potential land-surface processes sharpened by inherent hydrology pattern and permafrost presence, and lack of reliable high-resolution meteorological and climatic modeling data. The SIRS approaches include coordination of different scale national and international projects, capacity building targeted to early career researchers thematic education and training, and development of distributed information-computational infrastructure required in support of multidisciplinary teams of specialists performing cooperative work with tools for sharing of data, models and knowledge. Coordination within SIRS projects is devoted to major regional and global risks rising with regional environment changes and currently is concentrated on three interrelated problems, whose solution has strong regional environmental and socio-economical impacts and is very important for understanding potential change of the whole Earth System dynamics: Permafrost border shift, which seriously threatens the oil and gas transporting infrastructure and leads to additional carbon release; Desert - steppe- forest-tundra ecosystems changes, which might vary region input into global carbon cycle as well as provoke serious socio-economical consequences for local population; and Temperature/precipitation/hydrology regime changes, which might increase risks of forest and peat fires, thus causing significant carbon release from the region under study. Some

  2. Changes in the Regional Groundwater Aquifer and Potential Impacts on Surface Waters in Central Zealand, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorn, Paul

    The regional, confined aquifer on the island of Zealand, in eastern Denmark, is the primary aquifer used for large-scale abstraction for the supplies of all larger cities, including Roskilde and the greater Copenhagen metropolitan area. Large-scale groundwater abstraction from this aquifer...... as previously they never did. This study analyzes the changes in the groundwater potential between 1936 and 2006 in two stream catchments in central Zealand (Elverdam and Langvad) to assess how groundwater abstraction has affected the regional aquifers potential for contribution to base-flow in the streams......, wetlands and lakes in the area. The results show that there was a significant impact on the regional groundwater aquifer in the Langvad river catchment, with groundwater as much as 17m lower in 1987 from 1936 (pre-abstraction). However, in the Elverdam river catchment, the levels remained virtually...

  3. Medication Use Patterns, Treatment Satisfaction, and Inadequate Control of Osteoporosis Study in the Asia-Pacific Region (MUSIC OS-AP: Design of a multinational, prospective, observational study examining the impact of gastrointestinal events on osteoporosis management in postmenopausal women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankita Modi

    2015-12-01

    Conclusions: The results of MUSIC OS-AP will highlight the association of gastrointestinal events with patient-reported outcomes among postmenopausal women with osteoporosis and elucidate physicians' management of gastrointestinal events among this patient population in the Asia-Pacific region.

  4. Estimation of greenhouse impacts of continuous regional emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sinisalo, J. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland). Energy Systems

    1998-11-01

    In this thesis a method to calculate the greenhouse impact of continuous, time-dependent, non-global greenhouse gas emissions is used to estimate the impact of estimated anthropogenic pre-1990 and future (post 1990) emissions of CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O from Finland and the Nordic countries. Estimates for the impact of Finnish CFCs and their substitutes and the significance of Finnish forests as carbon sink are also calculated. The method is also used to compare several different wood and peat energy production schemes with fossil fuel use, in terms of caused greenhouse impact. The uncertainty of the results is examined. The greenhouse impact is measured in this thesis as the global mean direct radiative forcing caused by the emissions. Radiative forcing is the driving force behind the climate change and as such it can be used to assess the ensuing climate change. The method is suitable for greenhouse agents that can be considered to be well mixed in the atmosphere (mainly CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O and both CFCs and their substitutes). According to the results Finnish greenhouse impact due to anthropogenic CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O emissions has increased eight-fold during this century, and will very likely remain higher than current level throughout the next century. The impact of the Nordic countries has followed the same general pattern as Finland. It is likely that the per capita radiative forcing of the Nordic countries will remain above the global average. The uncertainty of the absolute results is quite high due to uncertain knowledge at several stages of the calculation. When the results are used in comparisons (e.g. between emission scenarios, or emissions of different countries), the accuracy of the results increases considerably. (orig.) 54 refs.

  5. Impact of disaster-related mortality on gross domestic product in the WHO African Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldis William

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Disaster-related mortality is a growing public health concern in the African Region. These deaths are hypothesized to have a significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP. The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region. Methods The impact of disaster-related mortality on GDP was estimated using double-log econometric model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the WHO African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries in the Region. The data was obtained from various UNDP and World Bank publications. Results The coefficients for capital (K, educational enrolment (EN, life expectancy (LE and exports (X had a positive sign; while imports (M and disaster mortality (DS were found to impact negatively on GDP. The above-mentioned explanatory variables were found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP at 5% level in a t-distribution test. Disaster mortality of a single person was found to reduce GDP by US$0.01828. Conclusions We have demonstrated that disaster-related mortality has a significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through capital investment, export promotion and increased educational enrolment, they should always keep in mind that investments made in the strengthening of national capacity to mitigate the effects of national disasters expeditiously and effectively will yield significant economic returns.

  6. Analyzing the impact of ambient temperature indicators on transformer life in different regions of Chinese mainland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Cui-fen; Gao, Wen-Sheng; Liu, Tong

    2013-01-01

    Regression analysis is applied to quantitatively analyze the impact of different ambient temperature characteristics on the transformer life at different locations of Chinese mainland. 200 typical locations in Chinese mainland are selected for the study. They are specially divided into six regions so that the subsequent analysis can be done in a regional context. For each region, the local historical ambient temperature and load data are provided as inputs variables of the life consumption model in IEEE Std. C57.91-1995 to estimate the transformer life at every location. Five ambient temperature indicators related to the transformer life are involved into the partial least squares regression to describe their impact on the transformer life. According to a contribution measurement criterion of partial least squares regression, three indicators are conclusively found to be the most important factors influencing the transformer life, and an explicit expression is provided to describe the relationship between the indicators and the transformer life for every region. The analysis result is applicable to the area where the temperature characteristics are similar to Chinese mainland, and the expressions obtained can be applied to the other locations that are not included in this paper if these three indicators are known.

  7. Impacts of boundary condition changes on regional climate projections over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jee Hee; Kim, Yeonjoo; Wang, Guiling

    2017-06-01

    Future projections using regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with boundary conditions (BCs) typically derived from global climate models. Understanding the impact of the various BCs on regional climate projections is critical for characterizing their robustness and uncertainties. In this study, the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impact of different aspects of boundary conditions, including lateral BCs and sea surface temperature (SST), on projected future changes of regional climate in West Africa, and BCs from the coupled European Community-Hamburg Atmospheric Model 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model are used as an example. Historical, future, and several sensitivity experiments are conducted with various combinations of BCs and CO2 concentration, and differences among the experiments are compared to identify the most important drivers for RCMs. When driven by changes in all factors, the RegCM4-produced future climate changes include significantly drier conditions in Sahel and wetter conditions along the Guinean coast. Changes in CO2 concentration within the RCM domain alone or changes in wind vectors at the domain boundaries alone have minor impact on projected future climate changes. Changes in the atmospheric humidity alone at the domain boundaries lead to a wetter Sahel due to the northward migration of rain belts during summer. This impact, although significant, is offset and dominated by changes of other BC factors (primarily temperature) that cause a drying signal. Future changes of atmospheric temperature at the domain boundaries combined with SST changes over oceans are sufficient to cause a future climate that closely resembles the projection that accounts for all factors combined. Therefore, climate variability and changes simulated by RCMs depend primarily on the variability and change of temperature aspects of the RCM BCs. Moreover, it is found that the response

  8. Impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate conditions in Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yao; Markkanen, Tiina; Backman, Leif; Henttonen, Helena M.; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; Laaksonen, Ari

    2014-05-01

    Climate response to anthropogenic land cover change happens more locally and occurs on a shorter time scale than the global warming due to increased GHGs. Over the second half of last Century, peatlands were vastly drained in Finland to stimulate forest growth for timber production. In this study, we investigate the biophysical effects of peatland forestation on near-surface climate conditions in Finland. For this, the regional climate model REMO, developed in Max Plank Institute (currently in Climate Service Center, Germany), provides an effective way. Two sets of 15-year climate simulations were done by REMO, using the historic (1920s; The 1st Finnish National Forest Inventory) and present-day (2000s; the 10th Finnish National Forest Inventory) land cover maps, respectively. The simulated surface air temperature and precipitation were then analyzed. In the most intensive peatland forestation area in Finland, the differences in monthly averaged daily mean surface air temperature show a warming effect around 0.2 to 0.3 K in February and March and reach to 0.5 K in April, whereas a slight cooling effect, less than 0.2 K, is found from May till October. Consequently, the selected snow clearance dates in model gridboxes over that area are advanced 0.5 to 4 days in the mean of 15 years. The monthly averaged precipitation only shows small differences, less than 10 mm/month, in a varied pattern in Finland from April to September. Furthermore, a more detailed analysis was conducted on the peatland forestation area with a 23% decrease in peatland and a 15% increase in forest types. 11 day running means of simulated temperature and energy balance terms, as well as snow depth were averaged over 15 years. Results show a positive feedback induced by peatland forestation between the surface air temperature and snow depth in snow melting period. This is because the warmer temperature caused by lower surface albedo due to more forest in snow cover period leads to a quicker and

  9. IMPACT OF GLOBAL RETAILERS ON REGIONAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Evtyugina

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The given article is focused on a topical subject of global trade networks and the current trends of their development on a regional retail market. The authors believe that deep integration of international networks in the regions significantly increases the competition among network operators in the trade sector and creates a certain challenge for Russian retailers, and require introduction of innovative management techniques, automation of operational processes, expansion of assortment, better service, lower prices, etc. Research and assessment of the parameters given in the article help verifying an effect of international networks on the development process of regional market participants.

  10. Impacts of irrigation on regional water resources in the coupled climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puma, M. J.; Krakauer, N.; Cook, B.; Gentine, P.; Nazarenko, L.; Kelley, M.

    2015-12-01

    Widespread irrigation alters regional climate through changes to the energy and water budgets of the land surface. Within general circulation models (GCMs), simulation studies have revealed regionally significant changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. These irrigation impacts are especially notable in key water stressed regions of Asia, western North America, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East. Here we investigate the feedbacks of irrigation with a focus on regional water availability in model simulations. We use two GCM configurations, with and without irrigation, to understand irrigation-induced changes in regional water balances. Importantly, while most other GCM irrigation analyses have focused on monthly changes, we explore changes in daily climate variables. Our simulations reveal shifts in runoff that vary dramatically by region. For example, California's Central Valley experiences substantial shifts in daily runoff, while runoff is relatively insensitive to irrigation in the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin. It is important to understand such feedbacks, as we face a future with great uncertainty in water-resource availability.

  11. Temporal Structures of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Its Impact on the Regional Climate Variability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    In this study, the temporal structure of the variation of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its impact on regional climate variability are analyzed using various datasets. The results show that blocking formations in the Atlantic region are sensitive to the phase of the NAO. Sixty-seven percent more winter blocking days are observed during the negative phase compared to the positive phase of the NAO. The average length of blocking during the negative phase is about 11 days, which is nearly twice as long as the 6-day length observed during the positive phase of the NAO. The NAO-related differences in blocking frequency and persistence are associated with changes in the distribution of the surface air temperature anomaly, which, to a large extent, is determined by the phase of the NAO. The distribution of regional cloud amount is also sensitive to the phase of the NAO. For the negative phase, the cloud amounts are significant, positive anomalies in the convective zone in the Tropics and much less cloudiness in the mid latitudes. But for the positive phase of the NAO, the cloud amount is much higher in the mid-latitude storm track region. In the whole Atlantic region, the cloud amount shows a decrease with the increase of surface air temperature. These results suggest that there may be a negative feedback between the cloud amount and the surface air temperature in the Atlantic region.

  12. Genome-wide association study identifies two novel regions at 11p15.5-p13 and 1p31 with major impact on acute-phase serum amyloid A.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carola Marzi

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Elevated levels of acute-phase serum amyloid A (A-SAA cause amyloidosis and are a risk factor for atherosclerosis and its clinical complications, type 2 diabetes, as well as various malignancies. To investigate the genetic basis of A-SAA levels, we conducted the first genome-wide association study on baseline A-SAA concentrations in three population-based studies (KORA, TwinsUK, Sorbs and one prospective case cohort study (LURIC, including a total of 4,212 participants of European descent, and identified two novel genetic susceptibility regions at 11p15.5-p13 and 1p31. The region at 11p15.5-p13 (rs4150642; p = 3.20×10(-111 contains serum amyloid A1 (SAA1 and the adjacent general transcription factor 2 H1 (GTF2H1, Hermansky-Pudlak Syndrome 5 (HPS5, lactate dehydrogenase A (LDHA, and lactate dehydrogenase C (LDHC. This region explains 10.84% of the total variation of A-SAA levels in our data, which makes up 18.37% of the total estimated heritability. The second region encloses the leptin receptor (LEPR gene at 1p31 (rs12753193; p = 1.22×10(-11 and has been found to be associated with CRP and fibrinogen in previous studies. Our findings demonstrate a key role of the 11p15.5-p13 region in the regulation of baseline A-SAA levels and provide confirmative evidence of the importance of the 1p31 region for inflammatory processes and the close interplay between A-SAA, leptin, and other acute-phase proteins.

  13. Territorial Impact Assessment for European regions: A methodological proposal and an application to EU transport policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camagni, Roberto

    2009-11-01

    The need to engage European research and institutions in the new field of Territorial Impact Assessment, from both a methodological and a procedural perspective, was stated some years ago by the European Spatial Development Perspective (ESDP). The necessity of multidimensional evaluation of the likely impact of policies and programmes on the territory - understood as the dimension on which all the other relevant dimensions (economic, social, environmental and cultural) converge and with which they integrate - emerged as a natural consequence of the importance of spatial aspects in the future development of the Union and of widespread preoccupations about certain emerging spatial trends. A proposal for a TIA methodology combining logical consistency vis-à-vis the Union's present institutional and policy guidelines with operational viability is being developed and applied to Trans-European Networks policy of the EU. Territorial impact is linked to an innovative definition of the objective of "territorial cohesion" of the Treaties in terms of territorial efficiency, quality and identity. Utilising sectoral impact studies developed inside the ESPON programme and developing territorial indicators for impact, vulnerability and desirability (territorial utility functions), a multicriteria model (TEQUILA) is implemented on priority projects as defined by the Commission, and results mapped and described for the 1360 NUTS-3 regions of the Union.

  14. Regional models for distributed flash-flood nowcasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Bihan Guillaume

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flash floods monitoring systems developed up to now generally enable a real-time assessment of the potential flash-floods magnitudes based on highly distributed hydrological models and weather radar records. The approach presented here aims to go one step ahead by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of flash floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the considered area in order (1 to evaluate based on a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2 to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk based on geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build a simplified impact model (discharge-impact curve for each river reach, which can be used to directly estimate the importance of potentially affected assets based on the outputs of a distributed rainfall-runoff model. This article presents a first case study conducted in the Gard region (south eastern France. The first validation results are presented in terms of (1 accuracy of the delineation of the flooded areas estimated based on the Cartino method and using a high resolution DTM, and (2 relevance and usefulness of the impact model obtained. The impacts estimated at the event scale will now be evaluated in a near future based on insurance claim data provided by CCR (Caisse Centrale de Réassurrance.

  15. THE IMPACT OF BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT ON REGIONAL DISPARITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Šoltés

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The structure of the business environment, as part of the socio-economic situation, indirectly affects a citizen’s quality of life. A “friendly” business environment has a positive effect on job formation, thus helping with employment. A country encourages formation and development of large enterprises through various incentives that reduce regional disparities, especially in less-developed regions. Nevertheless, a huge majority of enterprises in the European Union are small- and medium-sized. Self-employed persons are considered a specific form of business. Their activity is strongly influenced by state policy. This paper analyzes the business environment in regions of the Slovak Republic. Its principal aim is to examine the development of regional disparities and the related quality of citizens’ lives. An evaluation of statistical data of the structure of the business environment in the Slovak Republic indicated a change in legal units in relation to business. Although the number of legal units are stable, the number of legal persons has increased and that of natural persons-entrepreneurs decreased. Deepening of regional disparities was not observed across regions of the Slovak Republic.

  16. REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING STUDY FOR THE CARPATHIAN REGION USING REGCM4 EXPERIMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PIECZKA I.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The newest model version of RegCM is adapted with the ultimate aim of providing climate projection for the Carpathian region with 10 km horizontal resolution. For this purpose, first, coarse resolution reanalysis data and global climate model outputs are used to drive 50 km resolution model experiments, from which the outputs are used to provide necessary boundary conditions for the fine scale model runs. Besides the historical runs (for the period 1981-2010, RCP4.5 scenario is also analyzed in this paper for the 21st century. These experiments are essential since they form the basis of national climate and adaptation strategies by providing detailed regional scale climatic projections and enabling specific impact studies for various sectors.

  17. REGIONAL INNOVATION SYSTEM: THEORETICAL APPROACH AND EMPIRICAL STUDY OF CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Shu-guang; CHEN Cai

    2003-01-01

    Regional innovation system (RIS) is the new research field of modern economic geography in the age of knowledge economy. Based on the researches of regional economic geography, the authors of the paper consider RIS as the integrated and interactive systems with innovation milieu, elements, units, structure and functions. Five aspects of evaluation indicators including innovation input scale and output scale, innovation milieu transition, innovation in-ner operation, as well as innovation outer impact are worked out for final indicators of RIS scale and quality. Accord-ing to different RIS situations, three patterns of independent, imitative and cooperative development are put forward for choosing. At the latter part of the paper, we select 12 provincial regions (including three municipalities and one au-tonomous region) of China for empirical study. The results show that there exists great difference among each region from the aspects of innovation scale and quality mainly owning to the diversification of RIS social and economic mi-lieu, the major innovative units of enterprises, universities and R&D institutes. Finally, the paper points out the innova-tion development decisions for each region.

  18. Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Mexico and Potential Impacts on Rainfed Maize Agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez, B.; Sánchez, O.; Monterroso, A.; Rosales, G.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    Regional climate change scenarios that were used to assess the potential impacts on different sectors in Mexico are presented, with an application of those scenarios for the agricultural sector. The results of that research were delivered to the Mexican government for the development of the Mexican Fourth National Communication, which will be presented to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). To generate regional climate change scenarios the models and criteria suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report (4AR) were applied. Those criteria are: Consistency with global projections, Physical plausibility, Applicability in impact assessments, Representative of the potential range of changes in the future, Accessibility for the users of impacts assessments. The regional scenarios that were generated focus mainly on the applicability and accessibility criteria. A kick-off meeting was held at the beginning of the research work for the Fourth National Communication, to ensure that those criteria were fulfilled. Specifically, a set of climate change scenarios was generated using the outputs for temperature and precipitation of three General Circulation Models (GCMs): ECHAM5, HADGEM1 y GFDL CM2.0, for the horizons 2030 and 2050, and for the emission scenarios A1B, A2, B2 y B1. Those scenarios can be found in our web page in a low spatial resolution (2.5 º x 2.5º), and with high resolution (5’ x 5’). To assess the potential impacts on rainfed maize agriculture, the changes of the suitability of different regions in the country were evaluated, considering maize temperature and precipitation requirements at its different stages of development. Four categories of suitability (high, moderated, marginal, and no suitable) were characterized for current and future climatic conditions. Using the A2 and B2 emission scenarios, the three GCMs and the horizon 2050, results showed that around 67% of

  19. Regional differences in climate change impacts on groundwater and stream discharge in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Christensen, Britt S.B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.

    2007-01-01

    Regional impact studies of the effects of future climate change are necessary because projected changes in meteorological variables vary regionally and different hydrological systems can react in various ways to the same changes. In this study the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge...... simulates changes in groundwater head, recharge, and discharge. Precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration increase for both the A2 and B2 scenarios. This results in a significant increase in mean annual net precipitation, but with decreased values in the summer months. The magnitude...... of the hydrological response to the simulated climate change is highly dependant on the geological setting of the model area. In the Jylland area, characterized by sandy top soils and large interconnected aquifers, groundwater recharge increases significantly, resulting in higher groundwater levels and increasing...

  20. Study and assessment of clusters activity effect on regional economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babkin A.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The cluster approach, i.e., forming basic innovative and industrial clusters is widely applied in modern Russian conditions for the development of the economy. These actions are considered as effective measures for implementing the economic policy stimulating regional development by federal and regional authorities. The analysis we carried out showed that the quantitative approach for assessing the efficiency of cluster creation and performance is still insufficiently used. In this paper we establish and quantitatively estimate the influence cluster have on the regional economy using regression analysis with an example of a number of Russian regional clusters. Expanding the practice of creation and the state support of clusters taking into account the revealed quantitative dependences estimating their efficiency is suggested. We have advanced the hypothesis that clustering has a positive influence on regional economy, and confirmed this influence by means of quantitative methods using representative datasets. Our study of course had a selective character as it is not possible to carry out the calculations for all the existing clusters and cluster initiatives of Russia and discuss the results within a single article. At the same time, following the analysis we performed, we concluded that it is effective to initiate cluster creation in Russian regions. It is shown that cluster activity is capable to have of having a positive impact on GRP growth and the budgetary income in the region. Along with that, we note the dissimilarities in the multiplying influence of clusters on the regional development, its dependence on territorial and branch specifics that will be the direction for a further indepth study.

  1. The Impact of Public Spending on Regional Economic Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry Antonio Mendoza Tolosa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact that public spending and investment have upon economic growth in the departments of Colombia is examined using the results of national accounts for the years 2000-2011. Figures for departmental production by activity, along with change over the period and information for the gross public capital are brought together to create a statistical model to assess effects. A data panel model is chosen to relate the existing differences between departments and compare the impact of spending and investment between departments using the available information. Results indicate that public spending and investment play an important role in departmental economic dynamic and that its effect is greater in larger and wealthier departments.

  2. The impacts of urbanization on soil erosion in the Loess Plateau region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The accelerated urbanization has resulted in new soil erosion inthe Loess Plateau region since the 1980s. A concept of urban erosion and its impacts on environment are discussed. The experimental studies and field investigations show that those loose silt and earth piles formed by urban construction can be eroded seriously: Under stormy rain, the amount of sediment from steep man-dumped slope is 10.8-12.2 times that of from uncovered slope land; the result of experiments with the wind tunnel also shows that the damage to the surface structure of dry loess can cause serious soil erosion by wind in some cities of the region. Even if in the urban built-up area, there are many loose sandy soil, mud and silt, which are washed into rivers by city's ground flow in the rainy season.So, anthropogenically induced soil erosion has made soil erosion more serious around the urban areas.And the urban eroded environment has several characteristics such as fragility, complexity,seasonality and quick variability. Urban areas witness a quick economic growth and have more construction projects than rural areas, which brings more intensive changes of environments during a short period of time or adds some new elements to the erosion system. Therefore erosion has experienced more intensive impact by human activities. So, the possible impact of urbanization on erosion environment must be taken into consideration when designing or planning to exploit natural rsources or to develop urban areas in the Loess Plateau.

  3. IMPACT OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION ON THE HUMAN TRAFFICKING IN THE GREATER MEKONG SUB-REGION COUNTRIES

    OpenAIRE

    Peerapeng, Suk-Rutai; Chaitip, Prasert; Chaiboonsri, Chukiat; Kovacs, Sandor; Balogh, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the impact of economic globalization on the human trafficking inflows into the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) countries. The paper empirically tests for a cross-section of six countries, including Cambodia, the Yunnan Province of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PRD), Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. Employing the Pooled OLS estimator, as the theory predicts, the economic globalization increases trafficking inflow into the GMS...

  4. Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

    2013-12-01

    Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for

  5. Impact of external industrial sources on the regional and local air quality of Mexico Megacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. H. Almanza

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The air quality of megacities can be influenced by external emissions sources on both global and regional scale, and at the same time their outflow emissions can exert an important impact to the surrounding environment. The present study evaluates an SO2 peak observed on 24 March 2006 at the suburban supersite T1 and ambient air quality monitoring stations located in the north region of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA during MILAGRO campaign. We found that this peak could be related to an important episodic emission event from Tizayuca region, northeast of the MCMA. Back trajectories analyses suggest that the emission event started in the early morning at 04:00 LST and lasted for about 9 h. The estimated emission rate is noticeably high, about 2 kg s−1. This finding suggests the possibility of "overlooked" emission sources in this region that could influence the air quality of the MCMA. This further motivated us to study the cement plants, including those in the State of Hidalgo and in the State of Mexico, and we found that they can contribute in the NE region of the basin (about 41.7%, at the suburban supersite T1 (41.23% and at some monitoring stations their contribution can be even higher than from the Tula Industrial Complex. The contribution of Tula Industrial Complex to regional ozone levels is estimated. The model suggests low contribution to the MCMA (1 ppb to 4 ppb and slightly higher at the suburban T1 (6 ppb and rural T2 (5 ppb supersites. However, the contribution could be as high as 10 ppb in the upper northwest region of the basin and in the southwest and south-southeast regions of State of Hidalgo. In addition, a first estimate of the potential contribution from flaring activities to regional ozone levels is presented. Emission rates are estimated with a CFD combustion model. Results suggest that up to 30% of the total regional ozone from TIC could be related to flaring activities. Finally, the influence in SO2 levels

  6. Bat study in the Kharaa region, Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ariunbold Jargalsaikhan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Our study objectives were to determine bat species composition and to study the genetic variations and sound characteristics in bats of the Kharaa, Shatan, and Ulgii areas of Mongolia. This study is the first bat survey in this area. Nineteen species were from Mongolia. Six bat species belonged to three genera. We performed mitochondrial DNA sequencing of Myotis bombinus, Myotis gracilis, and Myotis petax to confirm the morphological identification of these species. We also determined the sound frequencies of the six bat species, based on their echolocation calls. The conservation status was determined using World Conservation Union red list categories and criteria. Sixteen bats from three species were ringed during this study and three artificial boxes were placed on trees in the Kharaa River Valley. Other than the northern bat, all species were eastern Palearctic. The northern bat (Eptesicus nilssonii species is widespread in the northern Palearctic region.

  7. Examining Impact of Global warming on the summer monsoon system using regional Climate Model (PRECIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patwardhan, S. K.; Kundeti, K.; Krishna Kumar, K.

    2011-12-01

    Every year, southwest monsoon arrives over Indian region with remarkable regularity. It hits the southern state of Kerala first by the end of May or the early June. More than 70% of the annual precipitation is received during the four monsoon months viz. June to September. This monsoon rainfall is vital for the agriculture as well as for the yearly needs of Indian population. The performance of the monsoon depends on the timely onset over southern tip of India and its progress along the entire country. This northward progression of monsoon to cover the entire Indian landmass, many times, is associated with the formation of synoptic scale system in the Bay of Bengal region and their movement along the monsoon trough region. The analysis of the observed cyclonic disturbances show that their frequency has reduced in recent decades. It is, therefore, necessary to assess the effect of global warming on the monsoon climate of India. A state-of-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, U.K. is applied over the South Asian domain to investigate the impact of global warming on the cyclonic disturbances. The PRECIS simulations at 50 km x 50 km horizontal resolution are made for two time slices, present (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100), for two socio-economic scenarios A2 and B2. The model skills are evaluated using observed precipitation and surface air temperature. The model has shown reasonably good skill in simulating seasonal monsoon rainfall, whereas cold bias is seen in surface air temperature especially in post-monsoon months. The typical monsoon features like monsoon trough, precipitation maxima over west coast and northeast India are well simulated by the model. The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed to study the likely changes in the quasi

  8. Assessment of climate change impact on phenology dynamic in Vojvodina region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalic, B.; Mihailovic, D. T.

    2009-09-01

    Global climate change is a continuous process that needs to be taken seriously, even though there are large uncertainties in its spatial and temporal distribution. One important bio tracer of climate change presence and magnitude is plant phenology dynamic. However, response of different plant communities to changing climate will vary across the regions and ecosystems but it will never fail. Therefore, on regional or farm level, observed phenology dynamic can be exploited as a measure of climate change impact, or expected climate change can be used in order to assess possible changes in plant growth dynamic. Nevertheless, phenology doesn't provide only date of flowering or emergence but also implies timing of farm operations as well as pest and disease dynamic. As an element of climate change impact study for Northern Serbia region in the framework of ADAGIO project, trend of plant phenology dynamic has been calculated. Climate data series of further climate were obtained using HadCM3, ECHAM5 and NCAR-PCM climate models. Statistical downscaling to smaller temporal scale was provided using Met&Roll weather generator. Time of phenological stages appearance was calculated for wheat and selected fruit varieties.

  9. Numerical investigation for the impact of CO2 geologic sequestration on regional groundwater flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamamoto, H.; Zhang, K.; Karasaki, K.; Marui, A.; Uehara, H.; Nishikawa, N.

    2009-04-15

    Large-scale storage of carbon dioxide in saline aquifers may cause considerable pressure perturbation and brine migration in deep rock formations, which may have a significant influence on the regional groundwater system. With the help of parallel computing techniques, we conducted a comprehensive, large-scale numerical simulation of CO{sub 2} geologic storage that predicts not only CO{sub 2} migration, but also its impact on regional groundwater flow. As a case study, a hypothetical industrial-scale CO{sub 2} injection in Tokyo Bay, which is surrounded by the most heavily industrialized area in Japan, was considered, and the impact of CO{sub 2} injection on near-surface aquifers was investigated, assuming relatively high seal-layer permeability (higher than 10 microdarcy). A regional hydrogeological model with an area of about 60 km x 70 km around Tokyo Bay was discretized into about 10 million gridblocks. To solve the high-resolution model efficiently, we used a parallelized multiphase flow simulator TOUGH2-MP/ECO2N on a world-class high performance supercomputer in Japan, the Earth Simulator. In this simulation, CO{sub 2} was injected into a storage aquifer at about 1 km depth under Tokyo Bay from 10 wells, at a total rate of 10 million tons/year for 100 years. Through the model, we can examine regional groundwater pressure buildup and groundwater migration to the land surface. The results suggest that even if containment of CO{sub 2} plume is ensured, pressure buildup on the order of a few bars can occur in the shallow confined aquifers over extensive regions, including urban inlands.

  10. Climate change and forests: Impacts and adaption. A regional assessment for the Western Ghats, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravindranath, N.H.; Sukumar, R. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deshingkar, P. [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

    1997-12-31

    Potential climate change over the next 50 to 100 years could have major impacts on tropical forests. Forests, particularly in the tropics, are subjected to anthropogenic pressures leading to degradation and loss of forest ecosystems. Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forests in tropical and temperate countries, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change and to develop adaption measures. The diversity of forest types in the Western Ghats ranges from wet evergreen and deciduous forest to dry thorn and montane forests with a wide range of annual rainfall regimes (from less than 65 cm to over 300 cm). The study was conducted in two regions of the Western Ghats; the Uttara Kannada district and the Nilgiris. Climate change projections for 2020 and 2050 were used in assessing the possible impacts on forests. In general, the `most likely` projections of climate change were an increase in mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.0 deg C and an increase in precipitation of 3-8% over the study regions by the year 2050. The `worst case` scenario was an increase in temperature of 1 deg C and a decrease in precipitation by 8% by 2050. To assess the vegetational responses to climate change, a simple model based on present-day correlations between climatic (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and vegetation types for these regions was developed. Likely changes in the areas under different forest types were assessed for `moderate climate` sensitivity and central scaling factor (referred to as the `most likely scenario`) for the years 2020 and 2050, and `high climate` sensitivity and a lower scaling factor (the `worst case scenario`) for 2050 90 refs, 15 figs, 15 tabs

  11. Local and Regional Scale Impacts of Arctic Shipping Emissions Off the Coast of Northern Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marelle, L.; Thomas, J. L.; Law, K.; Raut, J. C.; Jalkanen, J. P.; Johansson, L.; Roiger, A.; Schlager, H.; Kim, J.; Reiter, A.; Weinzierl, B.; Rose, M.

    2014-12-01

    Decreased sea ice extent due to warming has already resulted in the use of new shipping routes through the Arctic. Marine traffic is a source of air pollutants, including NOx, SO2, and aerosols, and is predicted to be an increasingly significant source of Arctic pollution in the future. Currently there are large uncertainties in both global and Arctic shipping emissions, leading to uncertainties in diagnosing current and future impacts of marine traffic on Arctic air quality and climate. This study focuses on the local scale, examining chemical/aerosol transformations occurring in individual ship plumes. Measurements of ship pollution in the Arctic taken during the EU ACCESS aircraft campaign (Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society) in July 2012 are used to quantify the amount of pollution emitted from different ship types. This is combined with regional model (WRF-Chem) simulations to evaluate the impacts of shipping in northern Norway in summer 2012. The model is run at high resolution (2x2 km) combined with STEAMv2 (Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model version 2) emissions (1x1 km, 15 minute resolution) produced for shipping activity during the measurement period. WRF-Chem model results are compared with 3 ship plumes sampled during ACCESS. The model shows that both the location and total amount of pollution in individual ship plumes are correctly represented. Given this, the model is used to investigate the regional influence of ship pollution off the coast of Norway on a weekly time scale during July 2012, focusing on ozone photochemistry in ship plumes, the evolution of aerosols, and investigating the fate of black carbon emitted from ships. We compare regional modeling results obtained using 15 minute resolution STEAMv2 emissions with results using weekly averaged emissions, which are more representative of emissions typically used by global models to study the impacts of shipping on air quality and climate.

  12. EDMOS in ultrathin FDSOI: Impact of the drift region properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litty, Antoine; Ortolland, Sylvie; Golanski, Dominique; Dutto, Christian; Cristoloveanu, Sorin

    2016-11-01

    The development of high-voltage MOSFET (HVMOS) is necessary for including power management or radiofrequency functionalities in CMOS technology. In this paper, we investigate the fabrication and optimization of an Extended Drain MOSFET (EDMOS) directly integrated in the ultra-thin SOI film (7 nm) of the 28 nm FDSOI CMOS technology node. Thanks to TCAD simulations, we analyse in detail the device behaviour as a function of the doping level and length of the drift region. The influence of the back-plane doping type and of the back-biasing schemes is discussed. DC measurements of fabricated EDMOS samples reveal promising performances in particular in terms of specific on-resistance versus breakdown voltage trade-off. The experimental results indicate that, even in an ultrathin film, the engineering of the drift region could be a lever to obtain integrated HVMOS (3.3-5 V).

  13. Pollutants impact bioassay from waters and soils in Banat region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crina Laura Mosneang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Analyses of water and soil samples by chemical methods identified the quantities of chlorides, nitrates and phosphates by comparison with the maximum limits of law. Acute toxicity tests on zebra fish embryos is an alternative test of water samples around swine farms in Banat region, because embryos are not subject to animal protection legislation during experiments. The use of Eisenia fetida earthworms as pollution indicators allowed assessment of avoidance behavior of potentially polluting soils collected from different distances from farms.

  14. Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profile on Regional Weather Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovee, Gary

    2010-01-01

    Prudent assimilation of AIRS thermodynamic profiles and quality indicators can improve initial conditions for regional weather models. AIRS-enhanced analysis has warmer and moister PBL. Forecasts with AIRS profiles are generally closer to NAM analyses than CNTL. Assimilation of AIRS leads to an overall QPF improvement in 6-h accumulated precipitation forecasts. Including AIRS profiles in assimilation process enhances the moist instability and produces stronger updrafts and a better precipitation forecast than the CNTL run.

  15. Impact of regional climate change on human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A.

    2005-11-01

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

  16. Regional innovative and investment processes analysis and their impact on food-industry wine-producing enterprises development in Odessa region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bondarenko Svitlana Аnatoliyivna

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the study of state of winemaking sector, trends of innovative development of industrial enterprises of Ukraine and Odessa region are analyzed and based on this the characteristic patterns and main shortcomings are identified. The regional innovation and investment processes are anylyzed, the nature of its influence on development of wineries in food industry of Odessa region is identified. It is proved that the regulatory impact on development of viticulture and wine-making should focus on conditions and behavior of industry enterprises and directly or indirectly affect the efficiency of its business processes. One of management tools of socio-economic development of regions is regulation of innovation and investment processes, strict control over the use of targeted funds for program solving of region develoment priorities.

  17. Regional impacts of ultrafine particle emissions from the surface of the Great Lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H. Chung

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the impacts of aerosols on climate requires a detailed knowledge of both the anthropogenic and the natural contributions to the aerosol population. Recent work has suggested a previously unrecognized natural source of ultrafine particles resulting from breaking waves at the surface of large freshwater lakes. This work is the first modeling study to investigate the potential for this newly discovered source to affect the aerosol number concentrations on regional scales. Using the WRF-Chem modeling framework, the impacts of wind-driven aerosol production from the surface of the Great Lakes were studied for a July 2004 test case. Simulations were performed for a base case with no lake surface emissions, a case with lake surface emissions included, and a default case wherein large freshwater lakes emit marine particles as if they were oceans. Results indicate that the lake surface emissions can enhance the surface level aerosol number concentration by ∼20 % over the remote northern Great Lakes and by ∼5 % over other parts of the Great Lakes. These results were highly sensitive the nucleation parameterization within WRF-Chem; when the nucleation process was deactivated, surface-layer enhancements from the lake emissions increased to as much as 200 %. The results reported here have significant uncertainties associated with the lake emission parameterization and the way ultrafine particles are modeled within WRF-Chem. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the impacts found in this study suggest that further study of this phenomena is merited.

  18. Ozone studies in the Paso del Norte region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerra-Davila, Fernando

    The Paso del Norte region forms the largest contiguous bi-national conglomerate on the US-Mexico border. With a combined population of around 2 million inhabitants, the Paso del Norte region is isolated, more than 500 km away from the nearest urban area of comparable size, thus making it an ideal location for air quality studies of an isolated urban environment. The meteorological conditions leading to a high ozone episode in this region, such as the historical ozone episode of June 2006, are analyzed. It is well known that stagnation and minimal winds, high temperatures, and pressure ridges over the region are conducive to high ozone episodes. In addition, the planetary boundary height is studied to understand its impact on high ozone episodes. Several studies report that ground level ozone non-attainment regulations could be caused not only by local emissions, but also by atmospheric transport. In this work the atmospheric advection of pollutants into the region is analyzed using HYSPLIT backward trajectories. Furthermore, a novel backward trajectory clustering technique is implemented for the summer of 2006. The "ozone weekend effect" (OWE) is a phenomenon by which in some geographical regions ambient ozone concentrations tend to be higher on weekends than on weekdays, despite the lower emissions of ozone precursors during those days. The observed local OWE has never previously been studied in terms of the photolysis rates of four of the main ozone precursors. In this research a novel method that allows the calculation of actinic fluxes, photolysis frequencies and photolysis rates with a high degree of accuracy and reliability has been developed. This method utilizes a combination of the experimental data available for this region in conjunction with a radiative transfer model (TUV model). Three weekend-weekday cases during summers 2006, 2009 and 2010 are studied in this work. In this research, the photolysis impact on the local OWE is studied. The results

  19. [Impact of rural land market on farm household's behavior of soil & water conservation and its regional difference: A case study of Xingguo, Shangrao, and Yujiang County in Jiangxi province ecologically vulnerable districts].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Tai-Yang; Huang, Xian-jin

    2006-02-01

    The paper analyzed the farm households' decision-making progress of soil & water conservation and its two-stage conceptual model. It also discussed the impacts of rural land market on the farm households' behavior of soil & water conservation. Given that, the article established models for the relations between the land market and soil & water conservation, and the models' parameters were estimated with Heckman's two-stage approach by using the farm household questionnaires in Xingguo, Shangrao and Yujiang counties of Jiangxi province. The paper analyzed the impact o f rural land market on farm household's behavior of soil & water conservation and its regional difference with the result of model estimation. The results show that the perception of soil & water loss and the tax & fee on the farm land have significant influence upon the soil and water conservation from the view of the population; however, because of different social and economic condition, and soil & water loss, there are differences of the influence among the three sample counties. These differences go as follows in detail: In Xingguo County, the rent-in land area and its cost have remarkable effect on the farm households' soil & water conservation behavior; In Yujiang County, the rent-in land area, rent-in cost and rent-out land area remarkably influence the farm households' behavior of soil and water conservation, with the influence of the rent-in land area being greater than Xingguo County; In Shangrao County, only rent-out land area has significant influence on the behaviors of soil & water conservation; In all samples, Xingguo County and Yujiang County samples, the rent-out income has no significant influence on the farm household's decision-making behavior soil and water conservation. Finally, the paper put forward some suggestions on how to bring the soil & water loss under control and use land resource in sustainable ways.

  20. Economic and Environmental Impacts Analyses of Regional Widespread Use of Electric Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangsen Deng

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available We focused on the economic and environmental impacts of regional widespread use of Electric Vehicles (EV. Massive introduction of battery and plug-in hybrid EV will affect the regional energy consumption significantly and therefore, influence environment situations. In this study, we adopted performance price ratio to evaluate cost effectiveness of conventional vehicles and electric vehicles and introduced Grey Relational Analysis method to evaluate environmental changes. Sensitivity analyses indicate that electricity and gasoline price fluctuation will not significantly change cost effectiveness of conventional vehicles and that large scale introduction of EV requires improvement of EV’s driving range and adequate charging stations. Electricity generation system also needs to be adjusted to reduce incremental SO2 pollution.

  1. Impacts of urban and industrial development on Arctic land surface temperature in Lower Yenisei River Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Z.; Shiklomanov, N. I.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization and industrial development have significant impacts on arctic climate that in turn controls settlement patterns and socio-economic processes. In this study we have analyzed the anthropogenic influences on regional land surface temperature of Lower Yenisei River Region of the Russia Arctic. The study area covers two consecutive Landsat scenes and includes three major cities: Norilsk, Igarka and Dudingka. Norilsk industrial region is the largest producer of nickel and palladium in the world, and Igarka and Dudingka are important ports for shipping. We constructed a spatio-temporal interpolated temperature model by including 1km MODIS LST, field-measured climate, Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), DEM, Landsat NDVI and Landsat Land Cover. Those fore-mentioned spatial data have various resolution and coverage in both time and space. We analyzed their relationships and created a monthly spatio-temporal interpolated surface temperature model at 1km resolution from 1980 to 2010. The temperature model then was used to examine the characteristic seasonal LST signatures, related to several representative assemblages of Arctic urban and industrial infrastructure in order to quantify anthropogenic influence on regional surface temperature.

  2. A Regional Public Health Field Placement Program: making an IMPACT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Lisa C; Hites, Lisle; Jenkins, Crystal; Chauvin, Sheila W; Rucks, Andrew C; Ginter, Peter M

    2014-03-01

    Beginning in 2010, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Health Resources and Services Administration, made provisions in its Public Health Training Center cooperative agreements for field placements. This article describes best practices and lessons learned establishing and managing the South Central Public Health Partnership's Interns and Mentors Program for ACTion (IMPACT) Field Placement Program, which was initially funded through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Centers for Public Health Preparedness Cooperative agreement in 2002. The IMPACT program is based on a six-step process that has been developed and refined over its 10-year history: (a) identifying field placement opportunities, (b) marketing field experience opportunities to students, (c) selecting students seeking field experience opportunities, (d) placing students with practice partners, students with practice partners, (e) evaluating student progress toward field experience objectives, and (f) evaluating the program. This article describes the program's structure and processes, delineates the roles of its academic and practice partners, discusses evidence of its effectiveness, and describes lessons learned from its decade-long history. Hopefully, this information will facilitate the establishment, management and evaluation of internship and field placement programs in other Public Health Training Centers and academic public health programs.

  3. Impacts of Global Warming on Hydrological Cycles in the Asian Monsoon Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Koji DAIRAKU; Seita EMORI; Toru NOZAWA

    2008-01-01

    The hydrologic changes and the impact of these changes constitute a fundamental global-warmingrelated concern. Faced with threats to human life and natural ecosystems, such as droughts, floods, and soil erosion, water resource planners must increasingly make future risk assessments. Though hydrological predictions associated with the global climate change are already being performed, mainly through the use of GCMs, coarse spatial resolutions and uncertain physical processes limit the representation of terrestrial water/energy interactions and the variability in such systems as the Asian monsoon. Despite numerous studies, the regional responses of hydrologic changes resulting from climate change remains inconclusive. In this paper, an attempt at dynamical downscaling of future hydrologic projection under global climate change in Asia is addressed. The authors conducted present and future Asian regional climate simulations which were nested in the results of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments. The regional climate model could capture the general simulated features of the AGCM. Also, some regional phenomena such as orographic precipitation, which did not appear in the outcome of the AGCM simulation, were successfully produced. Under global warming, the increase of water vapor associated with the warmed air temperature was projected. It was projected to bring more abundant water vapor to the southern portions of India and the Bay of Bengal, and to enhance precipitation especially over the mountainous regions, the western part of India and the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. As a result of the changes in the synoptic flow patterns and precipitation under global warming, the increases of annual mean precipitation and surface runoff were projected in many regions of Asia. However, both the positive and negative changes of seasonal surface runoff were projected in some regions which will increase the flood risk and cause a mismatch between water

  4. Variation trends of meteorological variables and their impacts on potential evaporation in Hailar region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-liang REN

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Evaporation, which is an important factor in the water balance at the basin scale, is a critical variable in the determination of local available water resources. Since the potential evaporation is mainly influenced by meteorological variables, it is necessary to investigate the extent to which different meteorological variables affect the potential evaporation. The aim of this study was to explore the variation trends of different meteorological variables, and their impacts on the potential evaporation. This study selected the Hailar Meteorological Station of the Hailar region, which is situated in a cold, semi-arid, and sub-humid region, as a case study site. Based on observed daily meteorological data from 1951 to 2009, the potential evaporation was calculated with the Penman formula, and the variations of meteorological variables were investigated with the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. The correlation between the potential evaporation and each meteorological variable at annual and seasonal scales was also analyzed. The results show that the annual and seasonal potential evaporation and air temperature present increasing trends, whereas the wind speed, sunshine duration, and relative humidity present decreasing trends. Among the meteorological variables, the air temperature and relative humidity are the key factors that affect potential evaporation at different time scales, and the impacts of other meteorological variables on the potential evaporation are not significant and vary with time scales.

  5. [Study on the risk assessment method of regional groundwater pollution].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yan; Yu, Yun-Jiang; Wang, Zong-Qing; Li, Ding-Long; Sun, Hong-Wei

    2013-02-01

    Based on the boundary elements of system risk assessment, the regional groundwater pollution risk assessment index system was preliminarily established, which included: regional groundwater specific vulnerability assessment, the regional pollution sources characteristics assessment and the health risk assessment of regional featured pollutants. The three sub-evaluation systems were coupled with the multi-index comprehensive method, the risk was characterized with the Spatial Analysis of ArcMap, and a new method to evaluate regional groundwater pollution risk that suitable for different parts of natural conditions, different types of pollution was established. Take Changzhou as an example, the risk of shallow groundwater pollution was studied with the new method, and found that the vulnerability index of groundwater in Changzhou is high and distributes unevenly; The distribution of pollution sources is concentrated and has a great impact on groundwater pollution risks; Influenced by the pollutants and pollution sources, the values of health risks are high in the urban area of Changzhou. The pollution risk of shallow groundwater is high and distributes unevenly, and distributes in the north of the line of Anjia-Xuejia-Zhenglu, the center of the city and the southeast, where the human activities are more intense and the pollution sources are intensive.

  6. Variability of temperature sensitivity of extreme precipitation from a regional-to-local impact scale perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Kirchengast, G.

    2016-12-01

    Relating precipitation intensity to temperature is a popular approach to assess potential changes of extreme events in a warming climate. Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards, such as flash flooding, serve as motivation. It has not been addressed whether the temperature-precipitation scaling approach is meaningful on a regional to local level, where the risk of climate and weather impact is dealt with. Substantial variability of temperature sensitivity of extreme precipitation has been found that results from differing methodological assumptions as well as from varying climatological settings of the study domains. Two aspects are consistently found: First, temperature sensitivities beyond the expected consistency with the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) equation are a feature of short-duration, convective, sub-daily to sub-hourly high-percentile rainfall intensities at mid-latitudes. Second, exponential growth ceases or reverts at threshold temperatures that vary from region to region, as moisture supply becomes limited. Analyses of pooled data, or of single or dispersed stations over large areas make it difficult to estimate the consequences in terms of local climate risk. In this study we test the meaningfulness of the scaling approach from an impact scale perspective. Temperature sensitivities are assessed using quantile regression on hourly and sub-hourly precipitation data from 189 stations in the Austrian south-eastern Alpine region. The observed scaling rates vary substantially, but distinct regional and seasonal patterns emerge. High sensitivity exceeding CC-scaling is seen on the 10-minute scale more than on the hourly scale, in storms shorter than 2 hours duration, and in shoulder seasons, but it is not necessarily a significant feature of the extremes. To be impact relevant, change rates need to be linked to absolute rainfall amounts. We show that high scaling rates occur in lower temperature conditions and thus have smaller effect on absolute

  7. Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes

  8. Regional Modelling for Optimal Allocation of Agricultural Crops Considering Environmental Impacts, Housing Value and Leisure Preferences.

    OpenAIRE

    Haruvy, Nava; Shalhevet, Sarit

    2006-01-01

    Regional planning should consider the impact of agricultural crops on housing value and leisure, as well as on the local environment. We designed an optimization model for allocating agricultural crops based on farmers profits as well as the impact on these three factors. Each crop creates a different landscape, as well as a different effect on shading and noise reduction. These in turn influence the value of nearby housing and the regional leisure opportunities. Each crop also has a positive...

  9. The Impacts of Chihuahua Desert Aerosol Intrusions on Convective Clouds and Regional Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apodaca, Karina

    Growing up in a desert region influenced by a monsoon system and experiencing, first-hand, dust storms produced by convective thunderstorms stimulated my interest in the study of the impacts of aerosols on clouds. Contrary to other studies which focus more on anthropogenic aerosols, I chose to investigate the role of natural aerosols in the deserts of North America. Moreover, the role played by aerosols in desert regions within the North American Monsoon domain has not received as much attention as in other monsoon regions around the world. This dissertation describes my investigation of the connection between mineral aerosols (dust storms) and monsoon rainfall in the deserts of the Southwestern United States and Northwestern Mexico. To develop the context for the study of the role of mineral dust in summer-time convection on a regional scale, large-scale dynamical processes and their impact on the inter-annual variability of monsoon rainfall were analyzed. I developed the climatology of monsoonal rainfall and dust storms using surface observations to determine which mesoscale features influence North American Monsoon rainfall in the Paso Del Norte region. The strongest correlations were found between sea surface temperatures over the Gulf of California, Gulf of California moisture surges and monsoon rainfall in the Paso Del Norte region. A connection to ENSO could not be clearly established despite analyzing twenty-one years of data. However, by breaking the data into segments, a strong correlation was found for periods of intense rainfall. Twenty-one case studies were identified in which dust storms were produced in conjunction with thunderstorms during the 2005 - 2007 monsoon seasons. However, in some cases all the conditions were there for rainfall to occur but it did not precipitate. I concluded that strong thunderstorm outflow was triggering dust storms. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem V3.1.1) was used to evaluate

  10. A Longitudinal Study of the Impact of an Environmental Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rioux, Liliane; Pasquier, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    In a previous study, we investigated the impact of an awareness-raising campaign on the behaviour of secondary school children in the Centre Region of France, regarding the recycling of used batteries. But, was it a question of pro-environmental behaviour or simply an environmental action? To answer this question, a three-year longitudinal study…

  11. Impacts of urbanization on nitrogen deposition in the Pearl River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Fan, Q.

    2015-12-01

    The Pearl River Delta (PRD) region is one of the most advanced economic districts in China, which has experienced remarkable economic development and urbanization in the past two decades. Accompanied with the rapid economy development and urbanization, the PRD region encountered both severe nitrogen pollution and deposition. In this study, the characteristics of nitrogen deposition and impacts of urbanization on nitrogen deposition in the PRD region were investigated by combining the methods of field study and numerical model. According to the field measurements, the total dry and wet atmospheric deposition of reactive N at a urban site (SYSU) was up to 55.0 kg ha-1 yr-1 in 2010, slightly lower than the results at a rural forest site (DHS) (57.6 kg ha-1 yr-1). Wet deposition was the main form of the total deposition (64-76%). Organic nitrogen (ON) was found to be dominant in the total N deposition, with a contribution of 53% at DHS and 42% at SYSU. NH4+-N and NO3--N accounted for a similar portion of the total N deposition (23-29%). Atmospheric nitrogen deposition was further simulated by using the improved WRF-Chem model. The simulated N deposition flux was high in the north of PRD (i.e., Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhaoqing) and relative low in the east (Huizhou) and south (Zhuhai), with an average N deposition flux of about 24 kg ha-1 yr-1 for the whole PRD. The distribution of N dry deposition was mainly controlled by the concentration of reactive N compounds and precipitation governed the wet deposition distribution. The modeling results also indicate that the PRD area is the source region in which the emissions exceed the deposition while the outside area of the PRD is the receptor region in which the deposition exceeds emissions. The impact of emission change and land use change due to urbanization was also investigated using the WRF-Chem model. The results showed that atmospheric N deposition exhibits a direct response to emission change while the land use change

  12. Impacts of Regional Electricity Prices and Building Type on the Economics of Commercial Photovoltaic Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ong, S.; Campbell, C.; Clark, N.

    2012-12-01

    To identify the impacts of regional electricity prices and building type on the economics of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, 207 rate structures across 77 locations and 16 commercial building types were evaluated. Results for expected solar value are reported for each location and building type. Aggregated results are also reported, showing general trends across various impact categories.

  13. The impact of related variety on regional employment growth in Finland 1993-2006

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartog, M.; Boschma, R.A.; Sotarauta, M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of related variety on regional employment growth in Finland between 1993 and 2006 by means of a dynamic panel regression model.We find that related variety in general has no impact on growth. Instead, after separating related variety among low-and-medium-tech secto

  14. Impact of shale gas development on regional water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidic, R D; Brantley, S L; Vandenbossche, J M; Yoxtheimer, D; Abad, J D

    2013-05-17

    Unconventional natural gas resources offer an opportunity to access a relatively clean fossil fuel that could potentially lead to energy independence for some countries. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing make the extraction of tightly bound natural gas from shale formations economically feasible. These technologies are not free from environmental risks, however, especially those related to regional water quality, such as gas migration, contaminant transport through induced and natural fractures, wastewater discharge, and accidental spills. We review the current understanding of environmental issues associated with unconventional gas extraction. Improved understanding of the fate and transport of contaminants of concern and increased long-term monitoring and data dissemination will help manage these water-quality risks today and in the future.

  15. Regional Persistent Organic Pollutants' Environmental Impact Assessment and Control Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgis Staniskis

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The sources of formation, environmental distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs are increasingly seen as topics to be addressed and solved at the global scale. Therefore, there are already two international agreements concerning persistent organic pollutants: the Protocol of 1998 to the 1979 Convention on the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Persistent Organic Pollutants (Aarhus Protocol; and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. For the assessment of environmental pollution of POPs, for the risk assessment, for the evaluation of new pollutants as potential candidates to be included in the POPs list of the Stokholmo or/and Aarhus Protocol, a set of different models are developed or under development. Multimedia models help describe and understand environmental processes leading to global contamination through POPs and actual risk to the environment and human health. However, there is a lack of the tools based on a systematic and integrated approach to POPs management difficulties in the region.

  16. THE STUDY FOR REGIONAL RETAIL PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Sokolova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Pharmacy organizations are an element of regional pharmaceutical market infrastructure formation. They have different character and activity type, organizational and legal forms, types of properties. The revelation of the features of retail pharmaceutical market of Yaroslavl oblast was the purpose of the study. The analysis of the data of regional department of Federal Service on Surveillance in Healthcare and Social Development of Russian Federation  n Yaroslavl oblast in the beginning of 2014 showed that there are 137 acting commercial entities, which have licenses for pharmaceutical activity. The region has 487  pharmacy organizations which implement pharmaceutical activity of state (14.6%, municipal (7.4%, and private (78.0% forms of ownership. Some companies function in Yaroslavl (43.9% and Rybinsk (22.4% municipal district. The analysis of organization and legal forms revealed that 48.9% of pharmacy organizations are registered as ltd, 14.6% are state, and 14.2% are private entrepreneurs, public limited companies amount to 10.9%, the rest pharmacy organizations are included into municipal unitary enterprises and private limited companies – 7.39% and 4.1% correspondingly. The structure of retail market is represented by single pharmacy organizations (51.1% as well as organizations joined into pharmacy chains from two and more PO (48.9%. The share of commercial entities which include one PO amounted to 14.4% of all PO. Share of pharmacy chains (42.3% which include from 2 to 9 PO are 46.8% of all PO. Pharmacy chains, which have more than 9 retails spots amount to 6.6% of the total number of commercial entities. 38.8% of PO function within them. Pharmacy chains prevalence (42.3%, joined into 9 PO; pharmacy chains, which have more than 9 PO, and include state sector PO (14.6% are the features of the regional market.

  17. The Climaware project: Impacts of climate change on water resources management - regional strategies and European view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; D'Agostino, Daniela; Démerliac, Stéphane; Dorchies, David; Flörke, Martina; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Jost, Claudine; Kehr, Katrin; Perrin, Charles; Scardigno, Alessandra; Schneider, Christof; Theobald, Stephan; Träbing, Klaus

    2014-05-01

    an integrated analysis across different spatial scales. To fulfil the objectives of the ClimAware project, the following modelling methodology was implemented. Starting from a European modelling approach of water availability and use based on the WaterGAP3 model, the changes in the hydrologic regimes and water use of different sectors were analysed. Subsequently three case studies were used to investigate the impacts of CC at a regional scale. Regional models from three different countries and focusing on three types of water management issues were developed: • Hydromorphology (Eder basin, Germany): By using different scenarios, the influence of CC on the hydromorphological characteristics of the River Weser according to the WFD was evaluated and proposals for implementation were given. The objective was to examine, on typical river sections, how the WFD objectives can be implemented under CC constraints. • Dam management (Seine basin, France): Water management on the River Seine for water supply and flood alleviation is partly based on the management of artificial reservoirs. The case study developed scenarios linking the impact of CC on water resources and the expected change on the uses and on the management of the system. • Agricultural water use (Apulia region, Italy): In this region, economic and demographic changes cause an increase in the demand for good-quality municipal and industrial water. Besides, changes in the agricultural practices increase the demand for water in the agricultural sector. Since water is scarce in this region, the study focuses on the agricultural sector, which has the largest water saving potential. The final assessment comprises a cross-scale integration between the European and regional modelling frameworks in order to facilitate knowledge transfer and to help establishing sustainable and integrated water resources management plans.

  18. Impact of revised CLSI breakpoints for susceptibility to third-generation cephalosporins and carbapenems among Enterobacteriaceae isolates in the Asia-Pacific region: results from the Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART), 2002-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chi-Chang; Chen, Yao-Shen; Toh, Han-Siong; Lee, Yu-Lin; Liu, Yuag-Meng; Ho, Cheng-Mao; Lu, Po-Liang; Liu, Chun-Eng; Chen, Yen-Hsu; Wang, Jen-Hsien; Tang, Hung-Jen; Yu, Kwok-Woon; Liu, Yung-Ching; Chuang, Yin-Ching; Xu, Yingchun; Ni, Yuxing; Ko, Wen-Chien; Hsueh, Po-Ren

    2012-06-01

    This study examined the rates of susceptibility to third-generation cephalosporins and carbapenems among Enterobacteriaceae isolates that had been obtained from patients with intraabdominal infections in the Asia-Pacific region as part of the Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART). Susceptibility profiles obtained using 2009 Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) breakpoints were compared with those obtained using the 2011 CLSI breakpoints. From 2002 to 2010, Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae together accounted for more than 60% of the 13714 Enterobacteriaceae isolates analyzed during the study period. Extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) producers comprised 28.2% of E. coli isolates and 22.1% of K. pneumoniae isolates in the Asia-Pacific region, with China (55.6% and 33.7%, respectively) and Thailand (43.1% and 40.7%, respectively) having the highest proportions of ESBL producers. Based on the 2011 CLSI criteria, 77.2% of the Enterobacteriaceae isolates, 40.4% of ESBL-producing E. coli, and 25.2% of ESBL-producing K. pneumoniae isolates were susceptible to ceftazidime. Carbapenems showed in vitro activity against >90% of Enterobacteriaceae isolates in all participating countries, except for ertapenem in South Korea (susceptibility rate 82.2%). Marked differences (>5%) in susceptibility of ESBL-producing E. coli and K. pneumoniae isolates to carbapenems were noted between the profiles obtained using the 2009 CLSI criteria and those using the 2011 CLSI criteria. Continuous monitoring of antimicrobial resistance is necessary in the Asia-Pacific region.

  19. The impact of world trade on the Port of Rotterdam and the wider region of Rotterdam-Rijnmond

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijman, Wim; Gardebroek, Koos; Os, van Wouter

    2017-01-01

    We study the economic impact of world trade on the throughput in the Port of Rotterdam and the regional economy of Rotterdam-Rijnmond. We use a two-step approach. In the first step we analyze the relationship between world trade and the port's throughput. In the second step we deal with the impac

  20. Weather and human impacts on forest fires: 100 years of fire history in two climatic regions of Switzerland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zumbrunnen, T.; Pezzatti, B.; Menendez, P.; Bugmann, H.; Brgi, M.; Conedera, M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the factors driving past fire regimes is crucial in the context of global change as a basis for predicting future changes. In this study, we aimed to identify the impact of climate and human activities on fire occurrence in the most fire-prone regions of Switzerland. We considered fore

  1. The impact of innovation support programmes on SME innovation in traditional manufacturing industries: an evaluation for seven EU regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Radicic, D.; Pugh, G.; Hollanders, H.J.G.M.; Wintjes, R.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of innovation support programmes on SME innovation in traditional manufacturing industries in seven EU regions. Recent literature identifying sources of potential government failure in innovation policy suggests that the effects of public support measures to increa

  2. The Impact of English as a Global Language on Educational Policies and Practices in the Asia-Pacific Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunan, David

    2003-01-01

    This article presents the results of an investigation into the place of English in the curriculum in several countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The study indicates that the emergence of English as a global language is having considerable impact on policies and practices in all countries surveyed. However, it also reveals significant problems,…

  3. The Impact of English as a Global Language on Educational Policies and Practices in the Asia-Pacific Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunan, David

    2003-01-01

    This article presents the results of an investigation into the place of English in the curriculum in several countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The study indicates that the emergence of English as a global language is having considerable impact on policies and practices in all countries surveyed. However, it also reveals significant problems,…

  4. Weather and human impacts on forest fires: 100 years of fire history in two climatic regions of Switzerland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zumbrunnen, T.; Pezzatti, B.; Menendez, P.; Bugmann, H.; Brgi, M.; Conedera, M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the factors driving past fire regimes is crucial in the context of global change as a basis for predicting future changes. In this study, we aimed to identify the impact of climate and human activities on fire occurrence in the most fire-prone regions of Switzerland. We considered

  5. Clinical and Statistical Study on Canine Impaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina-Simona Coșarcă

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The aim of this study was to perform a clinical and statistical research on permanent impacted canine patients among those with dental impaction referred to and treated at the Oral and Maxillo-Facial Surgery Clinic of Tîrgu Mureș, over a four years period (2009-2012. Materials and methods: The study included 858 patients having dental impaction, and upon clinical records, different parameters, like frequency, gender, age, quadrant involvement, patient residence, associated complications, referring specialist and type of treatment, related to canine impaction, were assessed. Results: The study revealed: about 10% frequency of canine impaction among dental impactions; more frequent in women, in the first quadrant (tooth 13; most cases diagnosed between the age of 10-19 years; patients under 20 were referred by an orthodontist, those over 20 by a dentist; surgical exposure was more often performed than odontectomy. Conclusions: Canine impaction is the second-most frequent dental impaction in dental arch after third molars; it occurs especially in women. Due to its important role, canine recovery within dental arch is a goal to be achieved, whenever possible. Therefore, diagnose and treatment of canine impaction requires an interdisciplinary approach (surgical and orthodontic

  6. Cuban Migration Trends and Their Impact on Central America Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charleene Cortez Sosa

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the migration of Cuban population has taken new directions; this is mainly due to the migration policy flexibility adopted by the Cuban government and other Latin America governments, such as Ecuador, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Dominican Republic, and Haiti, among others, by issuing visas in favorable conditions for the population. Although there are varied reasons to migrate, this population has traditionally migrated motivated by the United States Cuban Adjustment Act which grants administrative advantages for regularization; no other country of the continent offers this privilege. Due to their political exile condition, whoever arrives to the United States will easily have access to legal mechanisms for migrant regularization. Although there has been great work on migration in general terms, little has been addressed on the Cuban migration in the Central American region; possibly this is due to the difficulty to find quantitative information in this regard. The article aims to facilitate the understanding of migration in a context of flexibility and establishment of new relations between the Caribbean and Central America.

  7. The Role of Regions and Territorial Cohesion and their Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popoviciu Gabriela

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The present paper will try to offer an overview of the interpenetration and integration of two major areas: planning and environment, because we live in a time where most of us live in urban areas (75% of Europe’s population and not in the rural areas. Starting with 2020, according to projections made in the field,the proportion will be 80%. Consequently, the demand for land within and around cities will only become more acute, which already can be seen at the national level. Urban sprawl in the last period of time has already recontour landscapes, which will affect the quality of human life and environment. And perhaps it is not incidentally that the urban planning and management have reached today, the priority issues on the global political agenda. Thus we will treat through this paper will follow the existence of cohesion between land andenvironment. Yet this requires consistent interpretation of laws and their application and its implications. Having this aspect in front, the literature in domain and the EU Treaties our paper could be an efficient example for local authorities when prepare the future planning plans, in order to better uses of available resources from any region.

  8. Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Consumption and Peak Demand in Buildings: A Detailed Regional Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John E.; Skorski, Daniel C.; Scott, Michael J.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the Eastern Interconnection (EIC) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered (IPCC A2 scenario as downscaled from the CASCaDE data set) has changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. This investigation examines building energy demand for three annual periods representative of climate trends in the CASCaDE data set at the beginning, middle, and end of the century--2004, 2052, and 2089. Simulations were performed using the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model which is a detailed simulation platform built around EnergyPlus. BEND was developed in collaboration with the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), a modeling framework designed to simulate the complex interactions among climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant spatial scales. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and, characteristics which represent the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the 3 EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 locations within the target region, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for each of the 3 years. In this study, the building stock characteristics are held constant based on the 2005 building stock in order to isolate and present results that highlight the impact of the climate signal on commercial and residential energy demand. Results of this analysis compare well with other analyses at their finest level of specificity. This approach, however, provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability to

  9. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Flörke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Yang, T.; Müller, C.; Leng, G.; Tang, Q.; Portmann, F. T.; Hagemann, S.; Gerten, D.; Wada, Y.; Masaki, Y.; Alemayehu, T.; Satoh, Y.; Samaniego, L.

    2017-01-04

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.

  10. Impacts of flare emissions from an ethylene plant shutdown to regional air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ziyuan; Wang, Sujing; Xu, Qiang; Ho, Thomas

    2016-08-01

    Critical operations of chemical process industry (CPI) plants such as ethylene plant shutdowns could emit a huge amount of VOCs and NOx, which may result in localized and transient ozone pollution events. In this paper, a general methodology for studying dynamic ozone impacts associated with flare emissions from ethylene plant shutdowns has been developed. This multi-scale simulation study integrates process knowledge of plant shutdown emissions in terms of flow rate and speciation together with regional air-quality modeling to quantitatively investigate the sensitivity of ground-level ozone change due to an ethylene plant shutdown. The study shows the maximum hourly ozone increments can vary significantly by different plant locations and temporal factors including background ozone data and solar radiation intensity. It helps provide a cost-effective air-quality control strategy for industries by choosing the optimal starting time of plant shutdown operations in terms of minimizing the induced ozone impact (reduced from 34.1 ppb to 1.2 ppb in the performed case studies). This study provides valuable technical supports for both CPI and environmental policy makers on cost-effective air-quality controls in the future.

  11. Impacts of Climate Policy on Regional Air Quality, Health, and Air Quality Regulatory Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, T. M.; Selin, N. E.

    2011-12-01

    Both the changing climate, and the policy implemented to address climate change can impact regional air quality. We evaluate the impacts of potential selected climate policies on modeled regional air quality with respect to national pollution standards, human health and the sensitivity of health uncertainty ranges. To assess changes in air quality due to climate policy, we couple output from a regional computable general equilibrium economic model (the US Regional Energy Policy [USREP] model), with a regional air quality model (the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions [CAMx]). USREP uses economic variables to determine how potential future U.S. climate policy would change emissions of regional pollutants (CO, VOC, NOx, SO2, NH3, black carbon, and organic carbon) from ten emissions-heavy sectors of the economy (electricity, coal, gas, crude oil, refined oil, energy intensive industry, other industry, service, agriculture, and transportation [light duty and heavy duty]). Changes in emissions are then modeled using CAMx to determine the impact on air quality in several cities in the Northeast US. We first calculate the impact of climate policy by using regulatory procedures used to show attainment with National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and particulate matter. Building on previous work, we compare those results with the calculated results and uncertainties associated with human health impacts due to climate policy. This work addresses a potential disconnect between NAAQS regulatory procedures and the cost/benefit analysis required for and by the Clean Air Act.

  12. Assessing the regional impacts of Mexico City emissions on air quality and chemistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mena-Carrasco

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The impact of Mexico City (MCMA emissions is examined by studying its effects on air quality, photochemistry, and on ozone production regimes by combining model products and aircraft observations from the MILAGRO experiment. The influence of MCMA emissions to enhancements in surface level NOx, CO, and O3 concentrations are confined to distances <200 km. However, the extent of the influence is significantly larger at higher altitudes. Broader MCMA impacts (some 900 km Northeast of the city are shown for specific outflow conditions in which enhanced ozone, NOy, and MTBE mixing ratios over the Gulf of Mexico are linked to MCMA by source tagged tracers and sensitivity runs. This study shows that the "footprint" of MCMA on average is fairly local, with exception to reactive nitrogen, which can be transported long range in the form of PAN, acting as a reservoir and source of NOx with important regional ozone formation implications. The simulated effect of MCMA emissions of anthropogenic aerosol on photochemistry showed a maximum regional decrease of 40% in J[NO2→NO+O], and resulting in the reduction of ozone production by 5–10%. Observed ozone production efficiencies and photolysis rates are evaluated as a function of distance from MCMA, and by modeled influence from MCMA. These tend to be much lower closer to MCMA, and with higher MCMA influence. This research shows that MCMA emissions have a discernible effect on regional air quality and photochemistry, both contributing large amounts of ozone and its precursors, but with caveat that aerosol concentrations hinder formation of ozone to its potential due to its reduction in photolysis rates.

  13. Regional Oceanic Impact on Circulation and Direct Radiative Effect of Aerosol over East Asia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIONG Zhe; HAN Zhi-Wei

    2011-01-01

    The Regional Integrated Environmental Model System (RIEMS 2.0) coupled with a chemistry-aerosol model and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) is employed to simulate regional oceanic impact on atmospheric circulation and the direct radiative effect (DRE) of aerosol over East Asia. The aerosols considered in this study include both major anthropogenic aerosols (e.g., sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon) and natural aerosols (e.g., soil dust and sea salt). The RIEMS 2.0 is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis II, and the simulated period is from 1 January to 31 December 2006. The results show the following: (1) The simulated annual mean sea-level pressure by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is lower than without POM over the mainland and higher without POM over the ocean. (2) In summer, the subtropical high simulated by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is stronger and extends further westward, and the continental low is stronger than without POM in summer. (3) The aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulated by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is larger in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River than without POM. (4) The direct radiative effect with POM is stronger than that without POM in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of southern China. Therefore, the authors should take account of the impact of the regional ocean model on studying the direct climate effect &aerosols in long term simulation.

  14. Impact of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on China's International Agricultural Trade and Its Regional Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huanguang Qiu; Jun Yang; Jikun Huang; Ruijian Chen

    2007-01-01

    This study aims to examine the impact of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) on China's international agricultural trade and its regional agricultural development, using the Global Trade Analysis Project model and the China Agricultural Decision Support System. Our analysis showed that: (i) CAFTA will improve resource allocation efficiencies for both China and ASEAN and will promote bilateral agricultural trade and, hence, will have positive effects on the economic development of both sides; (ii) CAFTA will accelerate China's export of the agricultural commodities in which it has comparative advantages,such as vegetables, wheat and horticultural products, but at the same time bring about a large increase in imports of commodities such as vegetable oil and sugar; and (iii) CAFTA will have significantly varying impacts on China's regional agricultural development because of large differences in the agricultural production structure in each region. Our results indicate that agriculture in the northern, northeastern and eastern regions of China will benefit from CAFTA, whereas agriculture development in southern China will suffer Those regional specific impacts are quite different from the effects brought by multilateral free trade treaties, such as those of the WTO, which usually have positive effects on south China but negative impacts on the northern and western parts of China.

  15. MHC Region and Its Related Disease Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cao, Hongzhi

    The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is one of the most gene dense regions in the human genome and many disorders, including primary immune deficiencies, autoimmune conditions, infections, cancers and mental disorder have been found to be associated with this region. However, due to a high...... detection as well as HLA gene typing and large structural variation detection using optical mapping technic, to provide comprehensive and accurate information of the MHC region and apply them into disease causal mutation’s fine-mapping....

  16. Uncertainty and Evaluation of Impacts Modeling at Regional Scales in Integrated Assessment: the Case of Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, L.; Zhou, Y.; Eom, J.; Kyle, P.; Daly, D.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment (IA) models have traditionally focused on the evaluation of climate mitigation strategies. However, in recent years, efforts to consider both impacts and mitigation simultaneously have expanded dramatically. Because climate impacts are inherently regional in scale, the incorporation of impacts into IA modeling - which is inherently global in character - raises a range of challenges beyond the already substantial challenges associated with modeling impacts. In particular, it raises questions about how to best evaluate and diagnose the resulting representations of impacts, and how to characterize the uncertainty surrounding associated projections. This presentation will provide an overview of the challenges and uncertainties surrounding modeling climate impacts on building heating and cooling demands in an integrated assessment modeling framework - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The presentation will first discuss the issues associated with modeling building heating and cooling degree days in IA models. It will review research using spatially explicit climate and population information to inform a standard version of GCAM with fourteen geopolitical regions. It will discuss a new subregional version of GCAM in which building energy consumption is resolved at a fifty-state level. The presentation will also characterize efforts to link GCAM to more technologically resolved buildings models to gain insights about demands at higher temporal resolution. The second portion of the presentation will discuss the uncertainties associated with projections of building heating and cooling demands at various scales. A range of key uncertainties are important. This includes a range of uncertainties surrounding the nature of changes to global and regional climates, with particular emphasis on the uncertainty surrounding temperature projections. In addition, the linkage in this research between human and Earth systems means that the projections are

  17. Invasion and impacts of Xanthium strumarium in Borena Zone of Oromia Region, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigussie Seboka Tadesse

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To assess the impacts, mode of entry, trends, status, distribution and management practices of Xanthium strumarium (X. strumarium in Borena Zone of Oromia Region. Methods: Four study districts and eight kebeles (peasant associations were purposively selected based on distribution level and data from agricultural offices. Then, randomly, eight key informants were selected from each kebele. Data were collected using semi-structured interview and analyzed using SPSS version 21. Results: All respondents (100% acknowledged that X. strumarium highly invaded the study area and its spread was increasing both in time and space. According to respondents, X. strumarium was introduced to the area mainly along with improved seed varieties, food aid, flood, animals and vehicles, and easily dispersed by clinging to animal hides and human clothing. In the past time, X. strumarium caused high level of damage on native biodiversity and thus respondents worried that this might continue in the future. Similarly, respondents (98.4% stated that X. strumarium was out of control in the study area and they recommended further investigation by concerned body to control the spread. Conclusions: In conclusion, X. strumarium is spreading rapidly in the study area by threatening native biodiversity and adversely affecting agroeconomy of the farmers and the country. Therefore, it needs the effort of all concerned bodies to control the impacts.

  18. Examining the TAPI pipeline and its impact on regional and cross-regional rivalry

    OpenAIRE

    FARAJI RAD ABDOL REZA; Moradi, Heydar

    2012-01-01

    Before 1991, the states of Central Asia were marginal backwaters, republics of the Soviet Union that played neither a major role in the Cold War relations between the U.S.S.R. and the United States, nor in the Soviet Union's relations with the principal regional powers of Turkey, Iran, and China. But in the 1990s, the dissolution of the Soviet Union coincided with rediscovery of the energy resources of the Caspian Sea, attracting a wide range of international oil companies, including American...

  19. Impact of lake-river connectivity and interflow on the Canadian RCM simulated regional climate and hydrology for Northeast Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huziy, O.; Sushama, L.

    2017-02-01

    Lakes affect regional climate by modulating surface albedo, surface energy, and moisture budgets. This is especially important for regions such as Northeast Canada with approximately 10 % of the landmass covered by lakes, wetlands and rivers. From the regional hydrology perspective, interactions between lakes and rivers are important as streamflow patterns can be significantly modified by lake storage, and similarly lake levels can be modified by streamflows. In this study, using a suite of experiments performed with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) driven by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting ERA40 reanalysis data at the lateral boundaries for the 1979-2010 period, lake-river-atmosphere interactions and their impact on the regional climate/hydrology of north-east Canada are assessed. In these CRCM5 simulations, a one-dimensional lake model represents lakes, while the rivers are modeled using a distributed routing scheme, and one of the simulations includes interflow, i.e. lateral flow of water in the soil layers. Comparison of CRCM5 simulations with and without lakes suggests significant differences in winter/summer precipitation and winter temperature for the study region. CRCM5 simulations performed with and without lake-river interactions suggest improved representation of streamflows when lake storage and routing are taken into account. Adding the interflow process leads to increased streamflows during summer and fall seasons for the majority of the rivers, causing modest changes to land-atmosphere interactions via modified soil moisture. The impact of interflow on streamflow, obtained in this study, is comparable to the impact of lake-atmosphere interactions on streamflows. This study clearly demonstrates the need for realistic representation of lake-river interactions in regional climate models for realistic simulation of regional hydrology, particularly streamflows.

  20. Impact of Land Use Change over North America as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chacon, A.; Sushama, L.; Beltrami, H.

    2014-12-01

    This study investigates the biogeophysical impacts of human-induced land cover change, particularly crops, on the regional climate of North America, using the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this effect, two simulations are performed with CRCM5 with different land cover datasets - one corresponding to the potential vegetation (i.e. without land use change) and the other corresponding to current land use. Most of the land use changes are concentrated over the US mid-west and south-central Canada, where forests and grasses have been replaced by crops. This transformation changes the surface parameters, particularly vegetation fractional area, leaf area index, albedo, roughness length and rooting depth among other variables, in the regions where land cover change takes place in these simulations. Both simulations span the 1988-2012 period and are driven by ERA-Interim at the lateral boundaries. The sea surface temperature and sea ice cover that vary inter-annually are also taken from ERA-Interim. Results suggest that regions where forests/grasses were replaced by crops generally show increases in albedo, particularly during the spring, fall and winter seasons, with the increase in albedo being largest for winter. This higher increase in albedo during winter is due to a snow-mediated positive feedback. The increased albedo values during winter, spring and fall are reflected in the cooler 2 meter temperature obtained in the simulation with land use change, compared to that with potential vegetation. Some cooling is observed in the summer for the simulation with land use change, mostly due to the increased latent heat fluxes. Increases in precipitation are noted for these regions, but are not statistically significant.

  1. Recent regional climate cooling on the Antarctic Peninsula and associated impacts on the cryosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliva, M; Navarro, F; Hrbáček, F; Hernández, A; Nývlt, D; Pereira, P; Ruiz-Fernández, J; Trigo, R

    2017-02-15

    The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is often described as a region with one of the largest warming trends on Earth since the 1950s, based on the temperature trend of 0.54°C/decade during 1951-2011 recorded at Faraday/Vernadsky station. Accordingly, most works describing the evolution of the natural systems in the AP region cite this extreme trend as the underlying cause of their observed changes. However, a recent analysis (Turner et al., 2016) has shown that the regionally stacked temperature record for the last three decades has shifted from a warming trend of 0.32°C/decade during 1979-1997 to a cooling trend of -0.47°C/decade during 1999-2014. While that study focuses on the period 1979-2014, averaging the data over the entire AP region, we here update and re-assess the spatially-distributed temperature trends and inter-decadal variability from 1950 to 2015, using data from ten stations distributed across the AP region. We show that Faraday/Vernadsky warming trend is an extreme case, circa twice those of the long-term records from other parts of the northern AP. Our results also indicate that the cooling initiated in 1998/1999 has been most significant in the N and NE of the AP and the South Shetland Islands (>0.5°C between the two last decades), modest in the Orkney Islands, and absent in the SW of the AP. This recent cooling has already impacted the cryosphere in the northern AP, including slow-down of glacier recession, a shift to surface mass gains of the peripheral glacier and a thinning of the active layer of permafrost in northern AP islands.

  2. Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Precipitation Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, S.-H.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedloved, G. J.

    2010-01-01

    In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles in clear and cloudy regions with accuracy which approaches that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe an approach to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model using WRF-Var. Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in clear and partly cloudy regions, and uncontaminated portions of retrievals above clouds in overcast regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts resulting from improved thermodynamic fields. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

  3. Statistical downscaling of regional climate scenarios for the French Alps : Impacts on snow cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousselot, M.; Durand, Y.; Giraud, G.; Mérindol, L.; Déqué, M.; Sanchez, E.; Pagé, C.; Hasan, A.

    2010-12-01

    Mountain areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Owing to the complexity of mountain terrain, climate research at scales relevant for impacts studies and decisive for stakeholders is challenging. A possible way to bridge the gap between these fine scales and those of the general circulation models (GCMs) consists of combining high-resolution simulations of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to statistical downscaling methods. The present work is based on such an approach. It aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on snow cover in the French Alps for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under several IPCC hypotheses. An analogue method based on high resolution atmospheric fields from various RCMs and climate reanalyses is used to simulate local climate scenarios. These scenarios, which provide meteorological parameters relevant for snowpack evolution, subsequently feed the CROCUS snow model. In these simulations, various sources of uncertainties are thus considered (several greenhouse gases emission scenarios and RCMs). Results are obtained for different regions of the French Alps at various altitudes. For all scenarios, temperature increase is relatively uniform over the Alps. This regional warming is larger than that generally modeled at the global scale (IPCC, 2007), and particularly strong in summer. Annual precipitation amounts seem to decrease, mainly as a result of decreasing precipitation trends in summer and fall. As a result of these climatic evolutions, there is a general decrease of the mean winter snow depth and seasonal snow duration for all massifs. Winter snow depths are particularly reduced in the Northern Alps. However, the impact on seasonal snow duration is more significant in the Southern and Extreme Southern Alps, since these regions are already characterized by small winter snow depths at low elevations. Reference : IPCC (2007a). Climate change 2007 : The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the

  4. Mechanisms of impact of greenhouse gases on the Earth's ozone layer in the Polar Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zadorozhny, Alexander; Dyominov, Igor

    A numerical 2-D zonally averaged interactive dynamical radiative-photochemical model of the atmosphere including aerosol physics is used to examine the impact of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O on the future long-term changes of the Earth's ozone layer, in particular on its expected recovery after reduction of anthropogenic discharges of chlorine and bromine compounds into the atmosphere. The model allows calculating self-consistently diabatic circu-lation, temperature, gaseous composition of the troposphere and stratosphere at latitudes from the North to South Poles, as well as distribution of sulphate aerosol particles and polar strato-spheric clouds (PSCs) of types I and II. The scenarios of expected changes of the anthropogenic pollutants for the period from 1980 through 2050 are taken from Climate Change 2001. The processes, which determine the influence of anthropogenic growth of atmospheric abun-dance of the greenhouse gases on the long-term changes of the Earth's ozone layer in the Polar Regions, have been studied in details. Expected cooling of the stratosphere caused by increases of greenhouse gases, most importantly CO2, essentially influences the ozone layer by two ways: through temperature dependencies of the gas phase reaction rates and through enhancement of polar ozone depletion via increased PSC formation. The model calculations show that a weak-ness in efficiencies of all gas phase catalytic cycles of the ozone destruction due to cooling of the stratosphere is a dominant mechanism of the impact of the greenhouse gases on the ozone layer in Antarctic as well as at the lower latitudes. This mechanism leads to a significant acceleration of the ozone layer recovery here because of the greenhouse gases growth. On the contrary, the mechanism of the impact of the greenhouse gases on the ozone through PSC modification be-gins to be more effective in Arctic in comparison with the gas phase mechanism in springs after about 2020, which leads to retard

  5. Invited review: climate change impacts in polar regions: lessons from Antarctic moss bank archives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royles, Jessica; Griffiths, Howard

    2015-03-01

    Mosses are the dominant plants in polar and boreal regions, areas which are experiencing rapid impacts of regional warming. Long-term monitoring programmes provide some records of the rate of recent climate change, but moss peat banks contain an unrivalled temporal record of past climate change on terrestrial plant Antarctic systems. We summarise the current understanding of climatic proxies and determinants of moss growth for contrasting continental and maritime Antarctic regions, as informed by 13C and 18O signals in organic material. Rates of moss accumulation are more than three times higher in the maritime Antarctic than continental Antarctica with growing season length being a critical determinant of growth rate, and high carbon isotope discrimination values reflecting optimal hydration conditions. Correlation plots of 13C and 18O values show that species (Chorisodontium aciphyllum / Polytrichum strictum) and growth form (hummock / bank) are the major determinants of measured isotope ratios. The interplay between moss growth form, photosynthetic physiology, water status and isotope composition are compared with developments of secondary proxies, such as chlorophyll fluorescence. These approaches provide a framework to consider the potential impact of climate change on terrestrial Antarctic habitats as well as having implications for future studies of temperate, boreal and Arctic peatlands. There are many urgent ecological and environmental problems in the Arctic related to mosses in a changing climate, but the geographical ranges of species and life-forms are difficult to track individually. Our goal was to translate what we have learned from the more simple systems in Antarctica, for application to Arctic habitats.

  6. Vertical Profiles of Ammonia in the Colorado Front Range: Impacts of Source Region and Meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tevlin, A.; Kaushik, A.; Noone, D. C.; Ortega, J. V.; Smith, J. N.; Brophy, P.; Kirkland, J.; Link, M. F.; Farmer, D. K.; Wolfe, D. E.; Dube, W. P.; McDuffie, E. E.; Brown, S. S.; Zaragoza, J.; Fischer, E. V.; Murphy, J. G.

    2014-12-01

    Atmospheric ammonia plays an important role in aerosol particle formation and growth, as well as in nitrogen deposition to sensitive ecosystems. However, significant uncertainties are associated with the distribution and strength of emission sources, and many of the processes that control its atmospheric fate are not fully understood. The high density of agricultural and urban sources located in close proximity to more pristine mountainous areas to the west make the Colorado Front Range a unique area for studying atmospheric ammonia. The meteorology of the region, where heavy monsoon rains can be followed by rapid evaporation, can also impact surface-atmosphere partitioning of ammonia. As part of the Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Éxperiment (FRAPPÉ), vertical profiles of ammonia were measured throughout the boundary layer aboard a moveable platform on the 300 m Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) tower. Changes in ammonia concentration and its vertical structure were driven not only by changes in wind direction and estimated source region, but also by fluctuations in surface and atmosphere water content. For example, large increases in atmospheric ammonia mixing ratios were observed following rain events. This may be explained by surface-atmosphere exchange of wet-deposited ammonia associated with rapid evaporation following the event, and likely impacts particle formation. This may also play a role in transport from ammonia-rich agricultural areas towards the mountainous regions to the west during periods of upslope flow. The vertical ammonia concentration gradients observed throughout the structured early morning boundary layer also provide insight into the possible causes of early morning spikes in ammonia - a phenomenon that has been well-documented in many other locations. A box model was used to assess the relative importance of surface emissions due to the evaporation of morning dew versus entrainment of ammonia-rich air from above the

  7. Investigating the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of sea level rise in the Galveston Bay, Texas region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subedee, M.; Dotson, M.; Gibeaut, J. C.

    2016-02-01

    Anthropogenic effects throughout the twenty-first century, particularly greenhouse gas emissions, have contributed to global climatic and environmental changes. Sea level rise (SLR) is one of these changes which is occurring along the Texas Coast and is amplified by land subsidence. SLR along the northern Texas coast is impacting sensitive coastal environments as well as human populations, and industries and infrastructure supporting those populations. Sea level data from the NOAA gauge at Galveston Pier 21 has shown an increase of 2.08 feet in relative sea level in 100 years. Given an expected increase in the rate of sea level rise in the next decades, the purpose of this study is to provide an in-depth assessment on the effects of relative sea level rise on the habitat distribution of highly valuable coastal wetlands in the Galveston Bay region. This study also focuses on projecting the potential socioeconomic losses due to coastal flooding that is amplified by SLR in the region. In this study, three SLR scenarios are modeled: a scenario based on a linear extrapolation of satellite altimetry data (0.21 m by 2100); the IPCC's RCP8.5 mean scenario (0.74 m by 2100); and a high-end scenario (1.8 m by 2100) as proposed by Jevrejeva et al. (2014). A land subsidence rate calculated by developing a subsidence grid using GPS-measured subsidence monitoring and releveling data is added to all these scenarios. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to predict wetland conversion due to long-term SLR incorporating the processes of inundation, erosion, accretion, overwash, and saturation. Similarly, HAZUS-MH is used to evaluate the property damage to building stocks and the direct business interruption losses due to flooding caused by 100-year flood event scenario with three SLR scenarios. This coordinated research effort to assess the physical, environmental and policy impacts due to SLR is intended to enable policy-makers, managers, and the general public to

  8. THE IMPACT OF LARGE INVESTMENT PROJECTS ON THE LEVEL OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SAFETY OF REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mishulina S. I.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Recently, our country has become the venue for a number of large-scale worldwide events, the so-called megaprojects (e.g. APEC Summit in Vladivostok in 2012, the World summer Universiade in Kazan-2013, 2014 Winter Olympics of Sochi, the FIFA World Cup in 2018, the preparation and conduct of which include implementation of projects for the establishment of appropriate facilities and infrastructure. The impact of the preparation and holding of such large investment projects is diverse and multifaceted on all spheres of life of the host region. This article is devoted to the analysis of influence of the XXII Olympic Games on the level of social and economic security of the city of Sochi and Krasnodar region. In addition to traditional in national and foreign scientific literature analysis of dynamics of basic macroeconomic indicators as the important characteristics of the efficiency and competitiveness of the regional economy, in the article are studied the indicators and causes of changes in the investment climate and business activity. Special attention is paid to small business in connection with the place and the role in the local economies recreation and tourism specialization

  9. Analysis of the Impact of Source Region Structures on Seismological Parameter Scanning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Yuwei; Wang Xingzhou; Miao Peng; Chen Anguo; Li Lingli; Hong Dequan

    2010-01-01

    By taking moderate-strong earthquakes in South,North and West China as the research subjects and taking into consideration the fault strikes in these regions,this paper selects 8kinds of seismology indexes with clear physical significance and strong independence to carry out spatial scanning of the parallel,vertical and oblique slip of fault along the fault strike.Based on the size of correlation coefficients between the scanning curve and source region curve we quantitatively analyze the difference between scan results among different slip modes and study the impact of fault strike in different tectonic divisions on scanning results and variation rules of seismological parameters.The results show that not only does the change of spatial parameters have a great influence on seismological parameter scanning,but so does the fault strike in the source region.This paper presents the optimum condition parameters with least spatial influencing scanning scope for different magnitude seismology indexes and analyzes the possible influence of fault strike on seismological parameter scanning results.

  10. Multiwavelength Study of NGC 281 Region

    CERN Document Server

    Sharma, Saurabh; Pandey, J C; Chauhan, N; Ogura, K; Ojha, D K; Borrissova, J; Mito, H; Verdugo, T; Bhatt, B C

    2012-01-01

    We present a multiwavelength study of the NGC 281 complex which contains the young cluster IC 1590 at the center, using deep wide-field optical UBVI_c photometry, slitless spectroscopy along with archival data sets in the near-infrared (NIR) and X-ray. The extent of IC 1590 is estimated to be ~6.5 pc. The cluster region shows a relatively small amount of differential reddening. The majority of the identified young stellar objects (YSOs) are low mass PMS stars having age <1-2 Myr and mass 0.5-3.5 M_\\odot. The slope (\\Gamma) of the mass function for IC 1590, in the mass range 2 < M/M_\\odot \\le 54, is found to be -1.11+-0.15. The slope of the K-band luminosity function (0.37+-0.07) is similar to the average value (~0.4) reported for young clusters. The distribution of gas and dust obtained from the IRAS, CO and radio maps indicates clumpy structures around the central cluster. The radial distribution of the young stellar objects, their ages, \\Delta(H-K) NIR-excess, and the fraction of classical T Tauri sta...

  11. Elucidating hydraulic fracturing impacts on groundwater quality using a regional geospatial statistical modeling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burton, Taylour G., E-mail: tgburton@uh.edu [Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Houston, W455 Engineering Bldg. 2, Houston, TX 77204-4003 (United States); Rifai, Hanadi S., E-mail: rifai@uh.edu [Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Houston, N138 Engineering Bldg. 1, Houston, TX 77204-4003 (United States); Hildenbrand, Zacariah L., E-mail: zac@informenv.com [Inform Environmental, LLC, Dallas, TX 75206 (United States); Collaborative Laboratories for Environmental Analysis and Remediation, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019 (United States); Carlton, Doug D., E-mail: doug.carlton@mavs.uta.edu [Collaborative Laboratories for Environmental Analysis and Remediation, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019 (United States); Department of Chemistry & Biochemistry, The University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX (United States); Fontenot, Brian E., E-mail: brian.fonteno@mavs.uta.edu [Collaborative Laboratories for Environmental Analysis and Remediation, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019 (United States); Schug, Kevin A., E-mail: kschug@uta.edu [Collaborative Laboratories for Environmental Analysis and Remediation, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019 (United States); Department of Chemistry & Biochemistry, The University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX (United States)

    2016-03-01

    Hydraulic fracturing operations have been viewed as the cause of certain environmental issues including groundwater contamination. The potential for hydraulic fracturing to induce contaminant pathways in groundwater is not well understood since gas wells are completed while isolating the water table and the gas-bearing reservoirs lay thousands of feet below the water table. Recent studies have attributed ground water contamination to poor well construction and leaks in the wellbore annulus due to ruptured wellbore casings. In this paper, a geospatial model of the Barnett Shale region was created using ArcGIS. The model was used for spatial analysis of groundwater quality data in order to determine if regional variations in groundwater quality, as indicated by various groundwater constituent concentrations, may be associated with the presence of hydraulically fractured gas wells in the region. The Barnett Shale reservoir pressure, completions data, and fracture treatment data were evaluated as predictors of groundwater quality change. Results indicated that elevated concentrations of certain groundwater constituents are likely related to natural gas production in the study area and that beryllium, in this formation, could be used as an indicator variable for evaluating fracturing impacts on regional groundwater quality. Results also indicated that gas well density and formation pressures correlate to change in regional water quality whereas proximity to gas wells, by itself, does not. The results also provided indirect evidence supporting the possibility that micro annular fissures serve as a pathway transporting fluids and chemicals from the fractured wellbore to the overlying groundwater aquifers. - Graphical abstract: A relative increase in beryllium concentrations in groundwater for the Barnett Shale region from 2001 to 2011 was visually correlated with the locations of gas wells in the region that have been hydraulically fractured over the same time period

  12. Diffuse nutrient losses and the impact factors determining their regional differences in four catchments from North to South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongyong; Zhou, Yujian; Shao, Quanxi; Liu, Hongbin; Lei, Qiuliang; Zhai, Xiaoyan; Wang, Xuelei

    2016-12-01

    Diffuse nutrient loss mechanism is complicated and shows remarkably regional differences due to spatial heterogeneities of underlying surface conditions, climate and agricultural practices. Moreover, current available observations are still hard to support the identification of impact factors due to different time or space steps. In this study, an integrated water system model (HEQM) was adopted to obtain the simulated loads of diffuse components (carriers: runoff and sediment; nutrient: total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorous (TP)) with synchronous scales. Multivariable statistical analysis approaches (Analysis of Similarity and redundancy analysis) were used to assess the regional differences, and to identify impact factors as well as their contributions. Four catchments were selected as our study areas, i.e., Xiahui and Zhangjiafen Catchments of Miyun Basin in North China, Yuliang and Tunxi Catchments of Xin'anjiang Basin in South China. Results showed that the model performances of monthly processes were very good for runoff and good for sediment, TN and TP. The annual average coefficients of all the diffuse components in Xin'anjiang Basin were much greater than those in Miyun Basin, and showed significantly regional differences. All the selected impact factors interpreted 72.87-82.16% of the regional differences of carriers, and 62.72-71.62% of those of nutrient coefficients, respectively. For individual impact factor categories, the critical category was geography, followed by land-use/cover, carriers, climate, as well as soil and agricultural practices in Miyun Basin, or agricultural practices and soil in Xin'anjiang Basin. For individual factors, the critical factors were locations for the carrier regional differences, and carriers or chemical fertilizer for the nutrient regional differences. This study is expected to promote further applications of integrated water system model and multivariable statistical analysis in the diffuse nutrient studies, and

  13. Regional impacts of ultrafine particle emissions from the surface of the Great Lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H. Chung

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the impacts of aerosols on climate requires a detailed knowledge of both the anthropogenic and the natural contributions to the aerosol population. Recent work has suggested a previously unrecognized natural source of ultrafine particles resulting from breaking waves at the surface of large freshwater lakes. This work is the first modeling study to investigate the potential for this newly discovered source to affect the aerosol number concentrations on regional scales. Using the WRF-Chem modeling framework, the impacts of wind-driven aerosol production from the surface of the Great Lakes were studied for a July 2004 test case. Simulations were performed for a base case with no lake surface emissions, a case with lake surface emissions included, and a default case wherein large freshwater lakes emit marine particles as if they were oceans. Results indicate that the lake surface emissions can enhance the surface-level aerosol number concentration by ~20% over the remote northern Great Lakes and by ~5% over other parts of the Great Lakes. These results were highly sensitive to the new particle formation (i.e., nucleation parameterization within WRF-Chem; when the new particle formation process was deactivated, surface-layer enhancements from the lake emissions increased to as much as 200%. The results reported here have significant uncertainties associated with the lake emission parameterization and the way ultrafine particles are modeled within WRF-Chem. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of the impacts found in this study suggest that further study to quantify the emissions of ultrafine particles from the surface of the Great Lakes is merited.

  14. The Impact of Future Carbon Mitigation Policies and Climate on Regional Air Qaulity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnock, Steven; O'Connor, Fiona; Smith, Steven

    2017-04-01

    Air pollutants (ozone and particulate matter) can affect both climate and air quality. Future reductions in the anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and their precursors will improve air quality. However, it is uncertain the extent to which the choice of carbon mitigation policies could influence future regional air quality via changes to the co-emission of air pollutants from carbon sources. In addition, it is still uncertain how future changes in climate could influence air pollutants and future air quality may change through climate mitigation itself. Two consistent future scenarios, developed by the same integrated assessment model, are used within this study: one is a reference scenario of future economic development and population growth, whilst the other (RCP4.5) assumes the same development but applies mitigation measures to reduce carbon dioxide concentrations and stabilise anthropogenic radiative forcing at 4.5 W m-2. Here we have applied these two emission scenarios to a coupled composition-climate model (HadGEM3-UKCA) to ascertain the impact of such carbon mitigation measures on future air quality, both globally and over specific regions, such as Europe and Asia. A comparison of the emission scenarios shows that the implementation of carbon mitigation measures reduces global air pollutant emissions by between 15-30% and by larger amounts over other regions. Additional simulations have also been undertaken to attribute the future air quality changes to either reductions in emissions or changes in climate. An evaluation of the model using air quality observations has also been undertaken for the year 2000. This study demonstrates that carbon mitigation policies to mitigate climate change have added co-benefits for global and regional air quality.

  15. Impact of global warming on cyclonic disturbances over south Asian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patwardhan, Savita; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Kumar, K. Krishna

    2012-02-01

    A state-of-the-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK is applied over the Indian domain to investigate the impact of global warming on the cyclonic disturbances such as depressions and storms. The PRECIS simulations at 50 × 50 km horizontal resolution are made for two time slices, present (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100), for two socioeconomic scenarios A2 and B2. The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed to study the likely changes in the frequency, intensity and the tracks of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) and the Indian landmass during monsoon season. The model overestimates the frequency of cyclonic disturbances over the Indian subcontinent in baseline simulations (1961-1990). The change is evaluated towards the end of present century (2071-2100) with respect to the baseline climate. The present study indicates that the storm tracks simulated by the model are southwards as compared to the observed tracks during the monsoon season, especially for the two main monsoon months, viz., July and August. The analysis suggests that the frequency of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean is likely to reduce by 9% towards the end of the present century in response to the global warming. However, the intensity of cyclonic disturbances is likely to increase by about 11% compared to the present.

  16. Impact of global warming on cyclonic disturbances over south Asian region

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Savita Patwardhan; Ashwini Kulkarni; K Krishna Kumar

    2012-02-01

    A state-of-the-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK is applied over the Indian domain to investigate the impact of global warming on the cyclonic disturbances such as depressions and storms. The PRECIS simulations at 50 × 50 km horizontal resolution are made for two time slices, present (1961–1990) and the future (2071–2100), for two socioeconomic scenarios A2 and B2. The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed to study the likely changes in the frequency, intensity and the tracks of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) and the Indian landmass during monsoon season. The model overestimates the frequency of cyclonic disturbances over the Indian subcontinent in baseline simulations (1961–1990). The change is evaluated towards the end of present century (2071–2100) with respect to the baseline climate. The present study indicates that the storm tracks simulated by the model are southwards as compared to the observed tracks during the monsoon season, especially for the two main monsoon months, viz., July and August. The analysis suggests that the frequency of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean is likely to reduce by 9% towards the end of the present century in response to the global warming. However, the intensity of cyclonic disturbances is likely to increase by about 11% compared to the present.

  17. Impacts of natural gas mining on regional methane levels in Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lembeck-Edens, A. M.; Fuentes, J. D.; Martins, D. K.; Grannas, A. M.

    2013-12-01

    Increased natural gas exploration has been hypothesized to be a strong source of atmospheric methane, leading to enhanced regional methane levels. Fugitive methane emissions can result from leaky natural gas wells and pipelines. Pennsylvania is experiencing rapid natural gas well development and operation. In the Pennsylvania Marcellus Shale region, the density of natural gas wells is increasing. Therefore, a field study took place during 8 June to 6 August 2013 to investigate the magnitude of fugitive methane emissions near well sites and along established pipelines, as well as the spatial distribution of methane throughout Pennsylvania. The necessary instruments were mounted on a mobile platform (six-passenger van) to make transects running from southwestern to northeastern Pennsylvania where the highest density of wells is already established. Methane and carbon dioxide mixing ratios and their respective 13C isotopes were detected using a cavity ring-down spectrometer while the van was moving along pipelines or near natural gas well sites. Air sampling was done in areas away from natural well sites to establish the baseline of methane levels in the rural atmosphere. Also, air sampling took place around barns to distinguish the contribution of cattle to the atmospheric loading of methane. In the rural atmosphere, away from natural gas wells, methane levels remained around (baseline) 1.75 parts per millions (ppm). Methane levels in areas impacted by natural gas wells were higher than the baseline. Along pipelines, methane levels ranged from baseline levels of 1.75 ppm to 5.00 ppm. Near wells, plumes of methane-enriched air reached as high as 15.30 ppm. Although leaks from wells have been noted in previous studies, this investigation suggested that wells intermittently leaked methane. The main conclusion from the present study is that fugitive emissions from natural gas wells and pipelines contribute to enhancing the regional methane levels during daytime

  18. Impact of anomalous forest fire on aerosol radiative forcing and snow cover over Himalayan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bali, Kunal; Mishra, Amit Kumar; Singh, Sachchidanand

    2017-02-01

    Forest fires are very common in tropical region during February-May months and are known to have significant impact on ecosystem dynamics. Moreover, aerosols emitted from these burning activities significantly modulate the Earth's radiation budget. In present study, we investigated the anomalous forest fire events and their impact on atmospheric radiation budget and glaciated snow cover over the Himalayan region. We used multiple dataset derived from satellites [Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)] and reanalysis models [Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), Second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Application (MERRA-2) and ERA-interim] to evaluate the effect of biomass burning aerosols on radiation budget. April 2016 is associated with anomalous fire activities over lower Himalayan region in the last fourteen years (2003-2016). The model estimated organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC) emission reaches up to ∼3 × 104 and ∼2 × 103 μg/m2/day, respectively during the biomass burning period of April 2016. The meteorological data analysis accompanied with CALIOP aerosol vertical profile shows that these carbonaceous aerosols could reach up to ∼5-7 km altitude and could be transported towards glaciated region of upper Himalayas. The large amount of BC/OC from biomass burning significantly modulates the atmospheric radiation budget. The estimated columnar heating rate shows that these carbonaceous aerosols could heat up the atmosphere by ∼0.04-0.06 K/day in April-2016 with respect to non-burning period (2015). The glaciated snow cover fractions are found to be decreasing by ∼5-20% in 2016 as compared to long term mean (2003-2016). The combined analyses of various climatic factors, fires and associated BC emissions show that the observed snow cover decrease could be results of increased surface/atmospheric temperature due to combined effect of

  19. Impact of climate change on surface wind regime over the Peru-Chile upwelling region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goubanova, K.; Echevin, V.; Dewitte, B.; Garreaud, R.; Terray, P.; Vrac, M.

    2009-04-01

    The ocean region off the Chile-Peru coast is characterized by upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters, which drives an exceptionally high biological productivity. This upwelling is induced by the persistent southerly winds along the coast that exhibit a coastal jet structure at intraseasonal scales. Recent climate change studies based on the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) show a strengthening of the large-scale southerlies along the subtropical coast that could lead to an increase in coastal upwelling. However the coastal jet events which represent a considerable source of the synoptic variability of the alongshore winds are characterized by horizontal scale comparable to a AOGCM grid cell size, and cannot be therefore explicitly resolved by the AOGCMs. In order to provide a regional estimate of the winds as predicted by the coarse-resolution AOGCMs, a statistical downscaling method based on multiple linear regression is proposed. Large-scale wind at 10 m and sea level pressure are chosen as the predictor variables for regional 10 m wind. The validation is performed in two steps. First, QuikSCAT and ERS satellite products and NCEP reanalysis for the period 1992-2006 are used to build and validate the statistical model for the present climate. Second, the model is validated under a warmer climate: it is applied to large-scale predictors extracted from HadCM3 AOGCM simulations for the A2 and B2 SRES scenarios (2071-2100); the downscaled wind is then compared with outputs of the PRECIS regional climate model, forced at its boundaries by the same HadCM3 scenarios. To assess climate change impact on the along-shore wind, the statistical downscaling is applied to two contrasted SRES scenarios, namely the so-called preindustrial and CO2 quadrupling. The outputs of the IPSL-CM4 AOGCM are used as predictors. Evolution of the along-shore wind regime with a focus on the change of the coastal jet characteristics is discussed. For this particular

  20. Simulating Dust Regional Impact on the Middle East Climate and the Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osipov, Sergey; Stenchikov, Georgiy

    2017-04-01

    Dust is one of the most abundant aerosols, however, currently only a few regional climate downscalings account for dust. This study focuses on the Middle East and the Red Sea regional climate response to the dust aerosol radiative forcing. The Red Sea is located between North Africa and Arabian Peninsula, which are first and third largest source regions of dust, respectively. MODIS and SEVIRI satellite observations show extremely high dust optical depths in the region, especially over the southern Red Sea during the summer season. The significant north-to-south gradient of the dust optical depth over the Red Sea persists throughout the entire year. Modeled atmospheric radiative forcing at the surface, top of the atmosphere and absorption in the atmospheric column indicate that dust significantly perturbs radiative balance. Top of the atmosphere modeled forcing is validated against independently derived GERB satellite product. Due to strong radiative forcing at the sea surface (daily mean forcing during summer reaches -32 Wm-2 and 10 Wm-2 in SW and LW, respectively), using uncoupled ocean model with prescribed atmospheric boundary conditions would result in an unrealistic ocean response. Therefore, here we employ the Regional Ocean Modeling system (ROMS) fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the impact of dust on the Red Sea thermal regime and circulation. The WRF was modified to interactively account for the radiative effect of dust. Daily spectral optical properties of dust are computed using Mie, T-matrix, and geometric optics approaches, and are based on the SEVIRI climatological optical depth. The WRF model parent and nested domains are configured over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and over the Red Sea with 30 and 10 km resolution, respectively. The ROMS model over the Red Sea has 2 km grid spacing. The simulations show that, in the equilibrium response, dust causes 0.3-0.5 K cooling of the Red Sea surface

  1. Considering the sanitary aspects in regional plans for air quality. Situation of sanitary impacts of urban air pollution studies; Prise en compte des aspects sanitaires dans les Plans regionaux pour la qualite de l'air. Bilan des etudes d'impact sanitaires de la pollution atmospherique urbaine realisees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-12-15

    The law on air and the rational use of energy of the 30. september 1996 forecasts the setting up of regional planning for the air quality that have to rely on the support of an evaluation of sanitary effects of air pollution. To help the local sanitary authorities in this mission, the National Institute of Sanitary Surveillance and the C.I.R.E. have realised a methodological guide on evaluation of sanitary impact of urban air pollution in different contexts. (N.C.)

  2. Problems in the geographic source of historical and geographical regional studies (for example, Dnipropetrovsk region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trocenko O.V.

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Defined information potential source base of the territory of modern Dnipropetrovsk region, outlined the problems of using historical sources in historical and geographical studies at the regional level.

  3. Impact of the Influential Factors of Economic Competitiveness upon Romania’s West Region Firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Tănase

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In today’s context, marked by globalization and increasingly wide recognition of interdependencies, competitiveness has become an essential condition for market success. Starting from these considerations, the authors of the present paper intend to forward a research survey related to the impact of the influential factors of economic competitiveness on the firms operating in Romania’s West Region, research using a direct study method to grasp the firm managers’ perceptions regarding competitiveness factors of influence. The paper ends by presenting several proposals regarding the identification of measures for the economic competitiveness growth, both micro- and macro- economic. Consequently the paper approaches a subject of current interest, which stirs the preoccupation of specialists, governments, mass media and, last but not least, the interest of entrepreneurs, irrespective of their domain of activity.

  4. The air quality and health impacts of domestic trans-boundary pollution in various regions of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Y; Yim, S H L

    2016-12-01

    Air pollution is one of the most pressing environmental problems in China. Literature has reported that outdoor air pollution leads to adverse health problems every year in China. Recent measurement studies found the important regional nature of particulates in China. Trans-boundary air pollution within China has yet to be fully understood. This study aimed to comprehensively understand the processes of domestic trans-boundary air pollution in China and to apportion the impacts of emissions in different regions on air quality and public health. We applied a state-of-the-art air quality model to simulate air quality in China and then adapted a form of integrated concentration-response function for China to estimate the resultant amount of premature mortality due to exposures to PM2.5. Our findings show that domestic trans-boundary impacts (TBI), on average, account for 27% of the total PM2.5 in China. We estimated that outdoor air pollution caused ~870,000 (95% CI: 130,000-1500,000) premature mortalities in China in 2010, of which on average 18% are attributed to TBI. Among all the regions, North China is the largest contributor to TBI due to 41% of the health impacts of its emissions occurring in other regions. Taiwan (TW) is the smallest contributor to TBI occurring in China, contributing 2% of the national TBI, while TBI causes 22% of the premature mortalities due to outdoor air pollution in TW. Our findings pinpoint the significant impacts of TBI on public health in China, indicating the need for cross-region cooperation to mitigate the air quality impacts and the nation's resultant health problems.

  5. The impact of social factors on human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C virus co-infection in a minority region of Si-chuan, the People's Republic of China: a population-based survey and testing study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caiting Dong

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: While many human immunodeficiency virus (HIV studies have been performed in Liangshan, most were focused only on HIV infection and based on a sampling survey. In order to fully understand HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV prevalence and related risk factors in this region, this study implemented in 2009, included a survey, physical examination, HIV and HCV test in two towns. METHODS: All residents in two towns of the Butuo county were provided a physical examination and blood tests for HIV and HCV, and then followed by an interview for questionnaire. RESULTS: In total, 10,104 residents (92.4% were enrolled and 9,179 blood samples were collected for HIV and HCV testing, 6,072 were from individuals >14 years old. The rates of HIV, HCV, and HIV/HCV co-infection were 11.4%, 14.0%, and 7.7%, respectively for >14-year-old residents. The 25-34 yr age group had the highest prevalence of HIV, HCV, and HIV/HCV co-infections, reaching 24.4%, 26.2% and 16.0%, respectively. Overall, males had a much higher prevalence of all infections than females (HIV: 16.3% vs. 6.8%, HCV: 24.6% vs. 3.9%, HIV/HCV co-infected: 14.7% vs. 1.1%, respectively; P = 0.000. Approximately half of intravenous drug users tested positive for HIV (48.7% and 68.4% tested positive for HCV. Logistic regression analysis showed that five factors were significantly associated with HIV and HCV infection: gender (odds ratio [OR]  = 5.8, education (OR = 2.29; occupation (student as reference; farmer: OR = 5.02, migrant worker: OR = 6.12; drug abuse (OR = 18.0; and multiple sexual partners (OR = 2.92. Knowledge of HIV was not associated with infection. CONCLUSION: HIV and HCV prevalence in the Liangshan region is very serious and drug use, multiple sexual partners, and low education levels were the three main risk factors. The government should focus on improving education and personal health awareness while enhancing drug control programs.

  6. Impact of dynamical regionalization on precipitation biases and teleconnections over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómara, Iñigo; Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa; Domínguez, Marta; Suárez-Moreno, Roberto; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén

    2017-09-01

    West African societies are highly dependent on the West African Monsoon (WAM). Thus, a correct representation of the WAM in climate models is of paramount importance. In this article, the ability of 8 CMIP5 historical General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 CORDEX-Africa Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to characterize the WAM dynamics and variability is assessed for the period July-August-September 1979-2004. Simulations are compared with observations. Uncertainties in RCM performance and lateral boundary conditions are assessed individually. Results show that both GCMs and RCMs have trouble to simulate the northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in boreal summer. The greatest bias improvements are obtained after regionalization of the most inaccurate GCM simulations. To assess WAM variability, a Maximum Covariance Analysis is performed between Sea Surface Temperature and precipitation anomalies in observations, GCM and RCM simulations. The assessed variability patterns are: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the eastern Mediterranean (MED); and the Atlantic Equatorial Mode (EM). Evidence is given that regionalization of the ENSO-WAM teleconnection does not provide any added value. Unlike GCMs, RCMs are unable to precisely represent the ENSO impact on air subsidence over West Africa. Contrastingly, the simulation of the MED-WAM teleconnection is improved after regionalization. Humidity advection and convergence over the Sahel area are better simulated by RCMs. Finally, no robust conclusions can be determined for the EM-WAM teleconnection, which cannot be isolated for the 1979-2004 period. The novel results in this article will help to select the most appropriate RCM simulations to study WAM teleconnections.

  7. Wave resource variability: Impacts on wave power supply over regional to international scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Helen; Fairley, Iain; Robertson, Bryson; Abusara, Mohammad; Masters, Ian

    2017-04-01

    The intermittent, irregular and variable nature of the wave energy resource has implications for the supply of wave-generated electricity into the grid. Intermittency of renewable power may lead to frequency and voltage fluctuations in the transmission and distribution networks. A matching supply of electricity must be planned to meet the predicted demand, leading to a need for gas-fired and back-up generating plants to supplement intermittent supplies, and potentially limiting the integration of intermittent power into the grid. Issues relating to resource intermittency and their mitigation through the development of spatially separated sites have been widely researched in the wind industry, but have received little attention to date in the less mature wave industry. This study analyses the wave resource over three different spatial scales to investigate the potential impacts of the temporal and spatial resource variability on the grid supply. The primary focus is the Southwest UK, a region already home to multiple existing and proposed wave energy test sites. Concurrent wave buoy data from six locations, supported by SWAN wave model hindcast data, are analysed to assess the correlation of the resource across the region and the variation in wave power with direction. Power matrices for theoretical nearshore and offshore devices are used to calculate the maximum step change in generated power across the region as the number of deployment sites is increased. The step change analysis is also applied across national and international spatial scales using output from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ERA-Interim hindcast model. It is found that the deployment of multiple wave energy sites, whether on a regional, national or international scale, results in both a reduction in step changes in power and reduced times of zero generation, leading to an overall smoothing of the wave-generated electrical power. This has implications for the

  8. Regional economic impacts of water management alternatives: the case of Devils Lake, North Dakota, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leistritz, F Larry; Leitch, Jay A; Bangsund, Dean A

    2002-12-01

    Devils Lake, located in a closed basin in northeastern North Dakota has over a century-long history of highly fluctuating water levels. The lake has risen nearly 25 feet (7.7 m) since 1993, more than doubling its surface area. Rising water levels have affected rural lands, transportation routes, and communities near the lake. In response to rising lake levels, Federal, state and local agencies have adopted a three-part approach to flood damage reduction, consisting of (1) upper basin water management to reduce the amount of water reaching the lake, (2) protection for structures and infrastructure if the lake continues to rise, and (3) developing an emergency outlet to release some lake water. The purpose of this study was to provide information about the net regional economic effects of a proposed emergency outlet for Devils Lake. An input-output model was used to estimate the regional economic effects of the outlet, under two scenarios: (1) the most likely future situation (MLS) and (2) a best case situation (BCS) (i.e., where the benefits from the outlet would be greatest), albeit an unlikely one. Regional economic effects of the outlet include effects on transportation (road and railroad construction), agriculture (land kept in production, returned to production sooner, or kept in production longer), residential relocations, and outlet construction expenditures. Effects are measured as changes in gross business volume (gross receipts) for various sectors, secondary employment, and local tax collections. The net regional economic effects of the proposed outlet would be relatively small, and consideration of these economic impacts would not strengthen the case for an outlet.

  9. The Impact of Organizational Structure on Internal and External Integration: An empirical, cross-regional assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xenophon Koufteros

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We examine the effects of organizational structure on cross-functional integration, supplier integration, and customer integration and assess whether such effects vary by geographical region. Specifically, we investigate the impact of centralization, formalization, and complexity on both internal (cross-functional and external (supplier, customer integration. Relationships are examined across Western and East Asian environments using data collected from 238 manufacturing plants in eight countries. We find that structural features have differing impacts on cross-functional, supplier, and customer integration, and these effects vary across geographical regions.

  10. Climate change impacts on crop yield in the Euro-Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toreti, Andrea; Ceglar, Andrej; Dentener, Frank; Niemeyer, Stefan; Dosio, Alessandro; Fumagalli, Davide

    2017-04-01

    Agriculture is strongly influenced by climate variability, climate extremes and climate changes. Recent studies on past decades have identified and analysed the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop yields in the Euro-Mediterranean region. As these effects could be amplified in a changing climate context, it is essential to analyse available climate projections and investigate the possible impacts on European agriculture in terms of crop yield. In this study, five model runs from the Euro-CORDEX initiative under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used. Climate model data have been bias corrected and then used to feed a mechanistic crop growth model. The crop model has been run under different settings to better sample the intrinsic uncertainties. Among the main results, it is worth to report a weak but significant and spatially homogeneous increase in potential wheat yield at mid-century (under a CO2 fertilisation effect scenario). While more complex changes seem to characterise potential maize yield, with large areas in the region showing a weak-to-moderate decrease.

  11. Impact of wet season river flood discharge on phytoplankton absorption properties in the southern Great Barrier Reef region coastal waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherukuru, Nagur; Brando, Vittorio E.; Blondeau-Patissier, David; Ford, Phillip W.; Clementson, Lesley A.; Robson, Barbara J.

    2017-09-01

    Light absorption due to particulate and dissolved material plays an important role in controlling the underwater light environment and the above water reflectance signature. Thorough understanding of absorption properties and their variability is important to estimate light propagation in the water column. However, knowledge of light absorption properties in flood impacted coastal waters is limited. To address this knowledge gap we investigated a bio-optical dataset collected during a flood (2008) in the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region coastal waters. Results presented here show strong impact of river flood discharges on water column stratification, distribution of suspended substances and light absorption properties in the study area. Bio-optical analysis showed phytoplankton absorption efficiency to reduce in response to increased coloured dissolved organic matter presence in flood impacted coastal waters. Biogeophysical property ranges, relationships and parametrisation presented here will help model realistic underwater light environment and optical signature in flood impacted coastal waters.

  12. Editorial for Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick; Batelaan, Okke; Hughes, Denis A.; Swarzenski, Peter W.

    2014-01-01

    Hydrological regimes and processes show strong regional differences. While some regions are affected by extreme drought and desertification, others are under threat of increased fluvial and/or pluvial floods. Changes to hydrological systems as a consequence of natural variations and human activities are region-specific. Many of these changes have significant interactions with and implications for human life and ecosystems. Amongst others, population growth, improvements in living standards and other demographic and socio-economic trends, related changes in water and energy demands, change in land use, water abstractions and returns to the hydrological system (UNEP, 2008), introduce temporal and spatial changes to the system and cause contamination of surface and ground waters. Hydro-meteorological boundary conditions are also undergoing spatial and temporal changes. Climate change has been shown to increase temporal and spatial variations of rainfall, increase temperature and cause changes to evapotranspiration and other hydro-meteorological variables (IPCC, 2013). However, these changes are also region specific. In addition to these climate trends, (multi)-decadal oscillatory changes in climatic conditions and large variations in meteorological conditions will continue to occur.

  13. Impact of the Economic Crisis on Employment in Spanish Regions: Analysis by Sector for the Years 2007-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Rafael Peña Sánchez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to analyze the impact that the global economic crisis has had in the various regions and sectors of the Spanish Economy during the years 2007-2010, measured in terms of jobs and human capital. To this end the evolution of the labour market and human capital in recent years is examined. The increase in unemployment, and to a lesser extent, human capital, demonstrates the vulnerability of business and production in the regions of Spain. Nevertheless, the results of the study show that the crisis has had an irregular effect across regions, being greater in those regions that depend more on industries such as construction and industry and service relating to retail.

  14. 要素市场扭曲对中国地区经济增长的影响研究%A Study on the Impact of Factor Market Distortions on China’s Regional Economic Growth

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈再齐; 钟世川; 李震

    2016-01-01

    文章通过构建测算要素价格扭曲系数的理论框架,将经济增长率分解为要素价格扭曲、劳动增长、劳动报酬增长和技术进步偏向,利用1978-2013年中国31个省份的数据进行了测算分析。测算结果表明:大多数省份的劳动偏向型技术进步导致全要素生产率的增长率下降,并且各省份资本增长速度明显大于经济增长的速度。大部分省份的资本价格扭曲程度大于劳动,资本价格相对劳动价格越便宜,这些省份的要素价格扭曲系数越小。进一步实证分析表明,在劳动人口正增速时,要素价格扭曲、地区劳动报酬增长对地区经济增长具有抑制作用,而地区技术路径的选择却适合地区经济的发展。%This paper builds a theoretical framework to calculate factor price distortions coefficients,and decomposes econom⁃ic growth rate into factor price distortions,labor growth,wage growth and technical progress bias. On this basis,the paper esti⁃mates factor price distortions coefficients by using the data of 31 provincial-level administrative areas in China from 1978 to 2013. The study results show that labor-biased technical progress will make the total factor productivity growth slow down , and the growth rate of capital is significantly higher than the growth rate of economic growth in most provinces. Capital price distortions are greater than labor,the lower the prices of capital are,the less the factor price distortions coefficients are in these provinces. The further empirical analysis shows that factor price distortions and labor return inhibit economic growth ,whereas the choice of regional technical path is suitable for regional economic development.

  15. Regional research studies in USFWS Region 5 in partnership with USGS Patuxent WRC [Draft

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This document is a list of refuges participating in studies in Region 5. Studies of interest in this documents are the northern forest study, shorebird study,...

  16. Air quality and radiative forcing impacts of anthropogenic volatile organic compound emissions from ten world regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Fry

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs influence air quality and global climate change through their effects on secondary air pollutants and climate forcers. Here we simulate the air quality and radiative forcing (RF impacts of changes in ozone, methane, and sulfate from halving anthropogenic NMVOC emissions globally and from 10 regions individually, using a global chemical transport model and a standalone radiative transfer model. Halving global NMVOC emissions decreases global annual average tropospheric methane and ozone by 36.6 ppbv and 3.3 Tg, respectively, and surface ozone by 0.67 ppbv. All regional reductions slow the production of PAN, resulting in regional to intercontinental PAN decreases and regional NOx increases. These NOx increases drive tropospheric ozone increases nearby or downwind of source regions in the Southern Hemisphere (South America, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Australia. Some regions' NMVOC emissions contribute importantly to air pollution in other regions, such as East Asia, Middle East, and Europe, whose impact on US surface ozone is 43%, 34%, and 34% of North America's impact. Global and regional NMVOC reductions produce widespread negative net RFs (cooling across both hemispheres from tropospheric ozone and methane decreases, and regional warming and cooling from changes in tropospheric ozone and sulfate (via several oxidation pathways. The total global net RF for NMVOCs is estimated as 0.0277 W m−2 (~1.8% of CO2 RF since the preindustrial. The 100 yr and 20 yr global warming potentials (GWP100, GWP20 are 2.36 and 5.83 for the global reduction, and 0.079 to 6.05 and −1.13 to 18.9 among the 10 regions. The NMVOC RF and GWP estimates are generally lower than previously modeled estimates, due to differences among models in ozone, methane, and sulfate sensitivities, and the climate forcings included in each estimate. Accounting for a~fuller set of RF contributions may change the relative magnitude of each

  17. COAL MINING OPERATIONS AND ITS IMPACT ON SECTORAL AND REGIONAL AREA: EVIDENCE OF EAST KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rian Hilmawan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Mining sector plays important roles for Indonesian economic performance, especially in East Kalimantan. This study investigates: (a whether economic linkages of the mining sector related with other economic sectors in East Kalimantan, (b who gets benefit from such mining activities; (c how is the impact of mining sector for rural and urban households; and (d what happens if coal mining, oil and gas productions are completely depleted. The quantitative analysis framework using Input-Output and Social Accounting Matrix Tables in period 2009-2010 has been implemented as main data set. The result shows that mining sector was underdeveloped sector in East Kalimantan, including Kutai Kartanegara district. Activities from mining sector tended to give benefit for the owners of capital, which is larger than that benefit for workers employed. Structural Path Analysis (SPA shows that urban households gain the greatest advantages from the activities of this sector. The result also shows that the total output decreased by 65.12% when the mining, oil and gas dissapeared. A drastic reducing income after mining and oil and gas era will have an impact on the decline in the purchasing power in the region. However, the interesting finding of this research shows that the loss of mining and oil or gas sectors actually increases the strength of employment multiplier by 19%.

  18. The impact of regional Arctic sea ice loss on atmospheric circulation and the NAO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anker Pedersen, Rasmus; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Langen, Peter Lang; Vinther, Bo

    2016-04-01

    Reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover can affect the atmospheric circulation, and thus impact the climate beyond the Arctic. The atmospheric response may, however, vary with the geographical location of sea ice loss. The atmospheric sensitivity to the location of sea ice loss is studied using a general circulation model in a configuration that allows combination of a prescribed sea ice cover and an active mixed layer ocean. This hybrid setup makes it possible to simulate the isolated impact of sea ice loss and provides a more complete response compared to experiments with fixed sea surface temperatures. Three investigated sea ice scenarios with ice loss in different regions all exhibit substantial near-surface warming which peaks over the area of ice loss. The maximum warming is found during winter, delayed compared to the maximum sea ice reduction. The wintertime response of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation shows a non-uniform sensitivity to the location of sea ice reduction. While all three scenarios exhibit decreased zonal winds related to high-latitude geopotential height increases, the magnitudes and locations of the anomalies vary between the simulations. Investigation of the North Atlantic Oscillation reveals a high sensitivity to the location of the ice loss. The northern center of action exhibits clear shifts in response to the different sea ice reductions. Sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic cause westward and eastward shifts, respectively.

  19. Impact of Regional Economy on Internal Migration in Yangtze Delta: Based on Panel Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Yina; Ren Yuan

    2007-01-01

    Metropolitan Shanghai,in Yangtze River Delta(YRD),plays undoubtedly the leading role in the economic development in China,and becomes one of the most important population congregation areas.It is also widely regarded as the sixth uprising urban agglomeration in the world.Based on the quantitative studies on basic socioeconomic and demographic profile on the number and transition of population,this paper concluded that the migration is the key factor for population dynamies in YRD.Then,what are the regional economic factors affecting the migration of different cities in YRD? The panel data show that the different wage level is the most important factor that affects the immigration in YRD.Moreover,the ratio of industry sector and service sector has an impact on attracting immigration.However,per-capital GDP and the share of foreign direct investment(FDI)to GDP have dual-side impact:not high per-capital GDP and FDI bring the high immigration.

  20. Assessment of impact of water diversion projects on ecological water uses in arid region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song-hao SHANG; Hui-jie WANG

    2013-01-01

    In arid regions, large-scale water diversion from rivers leads to significant changes in river flow regimes, which may have large impacts on ecological water uses of river-dependent ecosystems, such as river, lake, wetland, and riparian ecosystems. To assess the integrated impact of water diversion on ecological water uses, we proposed a hierarchy evaluation model composed of four layers representing the evaluation goal, sub-areas of the influenced region, evaluation criteria, and water diversion schemes, respectively. The evaluation criteria for different types of ecological water uses were proposed, and the analytical hierarchy process was used for the integrated assessment. For a river ecosystem, the percentage of mean annual flow was used to define the grade of environmental flow. For a lake ecosystem, water recharge to the lake to compensate the lake water losses was used to assess the ecological water use of a lake. The flooding level of the wetland and the groundwater level in the riparian plain were used to assess the wetland and riparian ecological water uses, respectively. The proposed model was applied to a basin in northern Xinjiang in northwest China, where both water diversion and inter-basin water transfer projects were planned to be carried out. Based on assessment results for the whole study area and two sub-areas, an appropriate scheme was recommended from four planning schemes. With the recommended scheme, ecological water uses of the influenced ecosystems can be maintained at an acceptable level. Meanwhile, economical water requirements can be met to a great extent.

  1. Regional economic impacts of current and proposed management alternatives for Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koontz, Lynne; Sexton, Natalie; Ishizaki, Asuka; Ritten, John

    2013-01-01

    The National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997 requires all units of the National Wildlife Refuge System to be managed under a Comprehensive Conservation Plan (CCP). The CCP must describe the desired future conditions of a refuge and provide long-range guidance and management direction to achieve refuge purposes. Charles M. Russell (CMR) National Wildlife Refuge, located in north-central Montana, is in the process of developing a range of management goals, objectives, and strategies for the CCP. The CCP for the Refuge must contain an analysis of expected effects associated with current and proposed refuge-management strategies. For refuge CCP planning, an economic analysis provides a means of estimating how current management (No Action Alternative) and proposed management activities (Alternatives) affect the local economy. This type of analysis provides two critical pieces of information: (1) it illustrates a refuge’s contribution to the local community; and (2) it can help in determining whether economic effects are or are not a real concern in choosing among management alternatives. It is important to note that the economic value of a refuge encompasses more than just the impacts on the regional economy. Refuges also provide substantial nonmarket values (values for items not exchanged in established markets) such as maintaining endangered species, preserving wetlands, educating future generations, and adding stability to the ecosystem (Carver and Caudill, 2007). However, quantifying these types of nonmarket values is beyond the scope of this study. This report first presents a description of the local community and economy near the Refuge. Next, the methods used to conduct a regional economic impact analysis are described. An analysis of the final CCP management strategies that could affect stakeholders and residents and the local economy is then presented. The refuge management activities of economic concern in this analysis are:

  2. Human impact on fluvial sediments: how to distinguish regional and local sources of heavy metals contamination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novakova T.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Regional contamination of southern Moravia (SE part of the Czech Republic by heavy metals and magnetic particles during the 20th century was quantified in fluvial sediments of the Morava River. The influence of local sources to the regional contamination of the river sediments and impact of sampling sites heterogeneity were studied in profiles with different sedimentology (facies and lithology. For this purpose, hundreds of samples were obtained from regulated channel banks and naturally inundated floodplains and proxy elementary analyses have been carried out by X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (ED XRF, further calibrated by ICP MS. Magnetic susceptibility as a proxy of industrial contamination was determined and the age model has been obtained by 210Pb dating method. After establishing the lithological background from floodplain profiles, assessment of heavy metal contamination was done by using enrichment factors (EFs of heavy metals (Pb, Zn, Cu, Cr and magnetic susceptibility. Floodplain sedimentary profiles were found to be realiable for assessment of contamination and reconstruction of large scale, i.e. a really averaged regional contamination, while regulated channel banks are suitable for obtaining of more or less qualitative information of influence of local point sources in the area because sediments from regulated river banks qualitatively reflect the actual local contamination of the river system. It allowed us to distinguish the influence of local sources of contamination by comparing with more spatially averaged contamination signal from more distal floodplain profiles. The study area is rather weakly contaminated (EF ∼ 1-2, while individual sediment strata from regulated channel banks contains several times larger concentrations of heavy metals.

  3. Global and regional climate impacts of black carbon and co-emitted species from the on-road diesel sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, Marianne T.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Heyes, Chris; Klimont, Zbigniew; Samset, Bjørn H.

    2014-12-01

    Diesel vehicles are a significant source of black carbon (BC) and ozone precursors, which are important contributors to climate warming, degrade air quality and harm human health. Reducing diesel emissions could mitigate near-term climate change with significant co-benefits. This study quantifies the global and regional climate impacts of BC and co-emitted short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) from present-day on-road diesel vehicles, as well as future impacts following a current legislation emission scenario. Atmospheric concentrations are calculated by the chemical transport model OsloCTM2. The following radiative forcing (RF) and equilibrium surface temperature responses are estimated. For year 2010 on-road diesel emissions we estimate a global-mean direct RF from BC of 44 m W/m2 and an equilibrium surface temperature response of 59 mK, including the impact of BC deposition on snow. Accounting for cooling and warming impacts of co-emitted SLCFs results in a net global-mean RF and warming of 28 mW/m2 and 48 mK, respectively. Using the concept of Regional Temperature change Potential (RTP), we find significant geographical differences in the responses to regional emissions. Accounting for the vertical sensitivities of the forcing/response relation amplifies these differences. In terms of individual source regions, emissions in Europe give the largest regional contribution to equilibrium warming caused by year 2010 on-road diesel BC, while Russia is most important for Arctic warming per unit emission. The largest contribution to warming caused by the year 2050 on-road diesel sector is from emissions in South Asia, followed by East Asia and the Middle East. Hence, in regions where current legislation is not sufficient to outweigh the expected growth in activity, accelerated policy implementation is important for further future mitigation.

  4. Impact of oil spill from ship on air quality around coastal regions of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shon, Zang-Ho; Song, Sang-Keun

    2010-05-01

    Regional air quality around coastal regions, where regular maritime traffic emissions from cargo, other commercial, fishing and military vessels are significantly active, can be affected by their direct emission of primary air pollutants (NOx, SO2, particulate matter (PM), etc.). For instance, harbor traffic exerted an important impact on NO2, SO2, O3, and PM levels. In addition, regional air quality around coastal regions is also affected by oil spill caused by ship accident in the coast. On 7 Dec., 2007, a barge carrying a crane hit the oil tanker MT Hebei Sprit off the west coast of the Republic of Korea, Yellow Sea (approximately 10 km off the coast), at 0700 local time, causing the spill of total estimated 12,547 tons of Iranian heavy (IH) and Kuwait Export (KE) crude oils. Since then, oil began coming on shore late in the night on 7 Dec. More than 150 km of coastline had been identified as being impacted by 17 Dec. Much of the affected area is part of the Taean-gun National Park and the nearest coastal city to spilled area is Taean. On 8 Dec., the flow of oil from the tanker was stopped when the holes were patched. The accident is the worst oil spill in Korea and the spill area is about one-third of the size of the Exxon Valdez oil spill. The short- and long-term effects of oil spill on marine environment have been numerously studied, not on atmospheric environment. In this study, the air quality impact near spilled area by the evaporation of hydrocarbons from the oil spill is studied in detail. The evaporation rates of the volatile fractions of the crude oils released by oil spill were estimated based on their mole fractions of crude oils and mass transfer coefficients. Based on a molecular diffusion process, the flux of spilled oil component (Fivap, mol m-2 s-1) can be expressed as follows: Fivap = Kivap(Civap - C∞vap) (1) where Civap is concentration (mol m-3) of a component i of crude oil vapor in the air at the oil-air interface; C∞vap is the

  5. Nurses' participation in audit: a regional study

    OpenAIRE

    1998-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To find out to what extent nurses were perceived to be participating in audit, to identify factors thought to impede their involvement, and to assess progress towards multidisciplinary audit. RESEARCH DESIGN: Qualitative. METHODS: Focus groups and interviews. PARTICIPANTS: Chairs of audit groups and audit support staff in hospital, community and primary health care and audit leads in health authorities in the North West Region. RESULTS: In total 99 audit le...

  6. Climate change and its impacts on river discharge in two climate regions in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, H.; Luo, Y.

    2015-11-01

    Understanding the heterogeneity of climate change and its impacts on annual and seasonal discharge and the difference between median flow and extreme flow in different climate regions is of utmost importance to successful water management. To quantify the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of climate change impacts on hydrological processes, this study simulated river discharge in the River Huangfuchuan in semi-arid northern China and in the River Xiangxi in humid southern China. The study assessed the uncertainty in projected discharge for three time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) using seven equally weighted GCMs (global climate models) for the SRES (Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario. Climate projections that were applied to semi-distributed hydrological models (Soil Water Assessment Tools, SWAT) in both catchments showed trends toward warmer and wetter conditions, particularly for the River Huangfuchuan. Results based on seven GCMs' projections indicated changes from -1.1 to 8.6 °C and 0.3 to 7.0 °C in seasonal temperature and changes from -29 to 139 % and -32 to 85 % in seasonal precipitation in the rivers Huangfuchuan and Xiangxi, respectively. The largest increases in temperature and precipitation in both catchments were projected in the spring and winter seasons. The main projected hydrologic impact was a more pronounced increase in annual discharge in the River Huangfuchuan than in the River Xiangxi. Most of the GCMs projected increased discharge in all seasons, especially in spring, although the magnitude of these increases varied between GCMs. The peak flows were projected to appear earlier than usual in the River Huangfuchuan and later than usual in the River Xiangxi, while the GCMs were fairly consistent in projecting increased extreme flows in both catchments with varying magnitude compared to median flows. For the River Huangfuchuan in the 2080s, median flow changed from -2 to 304 %, compared to a -1 to 145 % change in high flow

  7. The Economic Impact of Labeled Regional Products: The Experience of the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Entlebuch

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Knaus

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Protected area management bodies are increasingly required to address economic development alongside the original goal of conservation. This is especially true for United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO biosphere reserves, which are expected to function as models for sustainable development. Economic development has been achieved in many places through nature-based tourism. Sale of products labeled as coming from protected areas is considered promising in this respect too, especially in Europe, but their economic impact has not been assessed so far. This study estimated the gross added value generated by labeled products from the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Entlebuch—a rural, mountainous region in Switzerland. After a management-guided phase of building up credibility, identity, and innovations, labeled products generated a remarkable gross added value of US$ 5.8 million in 2014, 13 years after the product label was introduced. This corresponds to 4% of the jobs in agriculture and forestry and 1% of all jobs in the region. Given potential synergies with biodiversity, tourism, individual well-being, and other assets, labeled products can be true advantages for protected areas and their managers.

  8. The negative impacts of human activities in the eastern African region: an international waters perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payet, Rolph; Obura, David

    2004-02-01

    The complex interactions between human activities and the environment at the interface of land and water is analyzed with a focus on the Somali Current (East Africa), and Indian Ocean Island States, subregions of the Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA). These 2 subregions contain some of the world's richest ecosystems, including the high biodiversity forests of Madagascar and the diverse coastal habitats of the eastern African coast. These ecosystems support local communities and national and regional economies. Current and future degradation of these systems, from water basins to continental shelves, affects the livelihoods and sustainability of the countries in the region, and long-term efforts to reduce poverty. The assessments determined that pollution and climate change are the primary environmental and social concerns in the Islands of the Indian Ocean, while freshwater shortage and unsustainable exploitation of fisheries and other living resources are the primary environmental and social concerns in East Africa. The GIWA approach, through assessing root causes of environmental concerns, enables the development of policy approaches for mitigating environmental degradation. This paper explores policy frameworks for mitigating the impacts, and reducing the drivers, of 3 environmental concerns--freshwater shortage; solid waste pollution; and climate change--addressing social and institutional causes and effects, and linking the subregions to broad international frameworks. The common theme in all 3 case studies is the need to develop integrated ecosystem and international waters policies, and mechanisms to manage conflicting interests and to limit threats to natural processes.

  9. Supporting work practices through telehealth: impact on nurses in peripheral regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courcy François

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Canada, workforce shortages in the health care sector constrain the ability of the health care system to meet the needs of its population and of its health care professionals. This issue is of particular importance in peripheral regions of Quebec, where significant inequalities in workforce distribution between regions has lead to acute nursing shortages and increased workloads. Information and communication technologies (ICTs are innovative solutions that can be used to develop strategies to optimise the use of available resources and to design new nursing work practices. However, current knowledge is still limited about the real impact of ICTs on nursing recruitment and retention. Our aim is to better understand how work practice reorganization, supported by ICTs, and particularly by telehealth, may influence professional, educational, and organizational factors relating to Quebec nurses, notably those working in peripheral regions. Methods/Design First, we will conduct a descriptive study on the issue of nursing recruitment. Stratified sampling will be used to select approximately twenty innovative projects relating to the reorganization of work practices based upon ICTs. Semi-structured interviews with key informants will determine professional, educational, and organizational recruitment factors. The results will be used to create a questionnaire which, using a convenience sampling method, will be mailed to 600 third year students and recent graduates of two Quebec university nursing faculties. Descriptive, correlation, and hierarchical regression analyses will be performed to identify factors influencing nursing graduates' intentions to practice in peripheral regions. Secondly, we will conduct five case studies pertaining to the issue of nursing retention. Five ICT projects in semi-urban, rural, and isolated regions have been identified. Qualitative data will be collected through field observation and approximately

  10. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I; Donat, Markus G; Pitman, Andy J; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert L

    2016-01-28

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean.

  11. The Charon-forming giant impact as a source of Pluto's dark equatorial regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekine, Yasuhito; Genda, Hidenori; Kamata, Shunichi; Funatsu, Taro

    2017-01-01

    Pluto exhibits complex regional diversity in its surface materials 1,2 . One of the most striking features is the dark reddish material, possibly organic matter, along Pluto's equator coexisting with the H2O-rich crust 2 . Little is known, however, about the surface process responsible for the dark equatorial regions. Here, we propose that Pluto's dark regions were formed through reactions in elongated pools of liquid water near the equator, generated by the giant impact that formed Charon 3-5 . Our laboratory experiments show that dark reddish organic matter, comparable to Pluto's dark materials, is produced through polymerization of simple organic compounds 6,7 that would have been present in proto-Pluto (for example, formaldehyde) by prolonged heating at temperatures ≥50 °C. Through hydrodynamic impact simulations, we demonstrate that an impactor, one-third the mass of Pluto, colliding with proto-Pluto—with an interior potential temperature of 150-200 K—could have generated both a Charon-sized satellite and high-temperature regions around Pluto's equator. We also propose that high-velocity giant impacts result in global or hemispherical darkening and reddening, suggesting that the colour variety of large Kuiper belt objects 8-12 could have been caused by frequent, stochastic giant impacts in a massive outer protoplanetary disk in the early Solar System 13-16 .

  12. Experiences with collaborative climate impacts assessments for regional governments in southwestern British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobie, S. R.; Murdock, T. Q.

    2016-12-01

    Infrastructure vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning have created demand for detailed information about climate change and extreme events from local and regional governments. Individual communities often have distinct priorities regarding climate change impacts. While projections from climate models are available to investigate these impacts, they are not always applicable or easily interpreted by local agencies. We discuss a series of climate impacts assessments for several regional and local governments in southwestern British Columbia. Each of the assessments was conducted with input from the users on project definition from the start of the process and on interpretation of results throughout each project. To produce sufficient detail for the assessment regions, we produce high-resolution (800m) simulations of precipitation and temperature using downscaled climate model projections. Sets of derived climate parameters tailored to each region are calculated from both standard indices such as CLIMDEX and from an energy-balance snowpack model. Involving user groups from the beginning of the analysis helps to convey the meaning and confidence of each set of climate change parameters to users and also clarifies what projections are feasible or not for impact assessments. We discuss the different levels of involvement and collaboration with each organization, and the resulting decisions implemented following each of the projects.

  13. Regional crop modelling in Europe: The impact of climate conditions and farm characteristics on maize yields

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Boogaard, H.; Diepen, van K.

    2009-01-01

    Impacts of climate variability and climate change on regional crop yields are commonly assessed using process-based crop models. These models, however, simulate potential and water limited yields, which do not always relate to observed yields. The latter are largely influenced by crop management, wh

  14. Regional economic impact of an event: the case of the Rotterdam Marathon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willem, Jan; Goedknegt, Bart; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2016-01-01

    The Rotterdam Marathon is an annual sports event in Rotterdam. This biggest one-day event in the Netherlands attracted around 925,000 visitors in 2014. This paper aims at evaluating its regional economic impact by way of input output analysis in terms of number of jobs.

  15. Climate change impacts on freshwater wetland hydrology and vegetation cover cycling along a regional aridity gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Global mean temperature may increase up to 6°C by the end of this century and together with precipitation change may steepen regional aridity gradients, impacting the hydrology, productivity, diversity, and ecosystem goods and services from freshwater wetlands, where the water balance is tightly cou...

  16. Climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems in metropolitan Chicago and its surrounding, multi-state region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessica J. Hellmann; Knute J. Nadelhoffer; Louis R. Iverson; Lewis H. Ziska; Stephen N. Matthews; Philip Myers; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes the potential impacts of warming temperatures and changing precipitation on plants, wildlife, invasive species, pests, and agricultural ecosystems across the multi-state region centered on Chicago, Illinois. We examine a geographic area that captures much of Lake Michigan, including a complex mosaic of urbanization and agriculture surrounding...

  17. Impacts of Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Production on Regional Air Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swarthout, R.; Russo, R. S.; Zhou, Y.; Mitchell, B.; Miller, B.; Lipsky, E. M.; Sive, B. C.

    2012-12-01

    Natural gas is a clean burning alternative to other fossil fuels, producing lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during combustion. Gas deposits located within shale rock or tight sand formations are difficult to access using conventional drilling techniques. However, horizontal drilling coupled with hydraulic fracturing is now widely used to enhance natural gas extraction. Potential environmental impacts of these practices are currently being assessed because of the rapid expansion of natural gas production in the U.S. Natural gas production has contributed to the deterioration of air quality in several regions, such as in Wyoming and Utah, that were near or downwind of natural gas basins. We conducted a field campaign in southwestern Pennsylvania on 16-18 June 2012 to investigate the impact of gas production operations in the Marcellus Shale on regional air quality. A total of 235 whole air samples were collected in 2-liter electropolished stainless- steel canisters throughout southwestern Pennsylvania in a regular grid pattern that covered an area of approximately 8500 square km. Day and night samples were collected at each grid point and additional samples were collected near active wells, flaring wells, fluid retention reservoirs, transmission pipelines, and a processing plant to assess the influence of different stages of the gas production operation on emissions. The samples were analyzed at Appalachian State University for methane (CH4), CO2, C2-C10 nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), C1-C2 halocarbons, C1-C5 alkyl nitrates and selected reduced sulfur compounds. In-situ measurements of ozone (O3), CH4, CO2, nitric oxide (NO), total reactive nitrogen (NOy), formaldehyde (HCHO), and a range of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were carried out at an upwind site and a site near active gas wells using a mobile lab. Emissions associated with gas production were observed throughout the study region. Elevated mixing ratios of CH4 and CO2 were observed in the

  18. Impact of burned areas on the northern African seasonal climate from the perspective of regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sales, Fernando; Xue, Yongkang; Okin, Gregory S.

    2016-12-01

    This study investigates the impact of burned areas on the surface energy balance and monthly precipitation in northern Africa as simulated by a state-of-the-art regional model. Mean burned area fraction derived from MODIS date of burning product was implemented in a set of 1-year long WRF-NMM/SSiB2 model simulations. Vegetation cover fraction and LAI were degraded daily based on mean burned area fraction and on the survival rate for each vegetation land cover type. Additionally, ground darkening associated with wildfire-induced ash and charcoal deposition was imposed through lower ground albedo for a period after burning. In general, wildfire-induced vegetation and ground condition deterioration increased mean surface albedo by exposing the brighter bare ground, which in turn caused a decrease in monthly surface net radiation. On average, the wildfire-season albedo increase was approximately 6.3 % over the Sahel. The associated decrease in surface available energy caused a drop in surface sensible heat flux to the atmosphere during the dry months of winter and early spring, which gradually transitioned to a more substantial decrease in surface evapotranspiration in April and May that lessened throughout the rainy season. Overall, post-fire land condition deterioration resulted in a decrease in precipitation over sub-Saharan Africa, associated with the weakening of the West African monsoon progression through the region. A decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence was observed in the burned area simulations, which played a dominant role in reducing precipitation in the area, especially in the months preceding the monsoon onset. The areas with the largest precipitation impact were those covered by savannas and rainforests, where annual precipitation decreased by 3.8 and 3.3 %, respectively. The resulting precipitation decrease and vegetation deterioration caused a drop in gross primary productivity in the region, which was strongest in late winter and early

  19. A cross-region study: climate change adaptation in Malawi's agro-based systems

    OpenAIRE

    Assa, Maganga Mulagha; Gebremariam, Gebrelibanos G.; Mapemba, Lawrence D.

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture in Malawi is vulnerable to the impacts of changing climate. Adaptation is identified as one of the options to abate the negative impacts of the changing climate. This study analyzed the factors influencing different climate change adaptation choices by smallholder farmers in Malawi. We sampled 900 farmers from all three regions of Malawi, using the multistage sampling procedure, study piloted in 2012. We analyzed smallholder farmers’ climate change adaptation choices with Multinom...

  20. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, A.; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

  1. The impacts of rapid land use changes on regional climate, air quality and atmospheric sensitivities to emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, S. H. L.; Wong, M.; Wang, Y.; Chan, A.

    2016-12-01

    The Pearl River Delta region has undergone a rapid urbanization in recent several decades. Literature has found significant impacts on climate and air quality. Previous studies however mainly investigated the impacts on climate and ozone concentration in a relatively short time period. None of them investigated the monthly variation in impacts on ozone (O3) and fine particulate matters (PM2.5), and the atmospheric sensitivity to emissions, which are particularly important for atmospheric scientists and policy makers. In this study, we used the state-of-the-art atmospheric regional models with the technique of high-order decoupled direct method to quantify the impacts of urbanization on not only the regional climate and O3 concentration but also the O3 sensitivities to emissions of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compound. Our preliminary results show that the urbanization shifts the energy budget from latent heat to sensible heat and ground heat storage. These changes cause an increase in ground level temperature and planetary boundary layer with a maximum annual change of 1.7ºC and 330m, respectively, and a reduction of relative humidity and wind speed up to 9.6% and 0.5m/s, respectively. Such changes are favorable to air pollution. Compared to the two land-use scenarios, we found that O3 increases by 14.2%, while PM2.5 decreases by 16.9% in urban areas. Due to urbanization, the O3 sensitivities to nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compound (VOC) change by 2.4% and 47.5%, respectively. This indicates that the atmospheric response in the region tends to be more sensitive to emission changes after urbanization. Our findings pinpoint that urbanization can significantly affect not only the regional climate and air quality but also the atmospheric responses to emission changes, highlighting the significant interactions between land-use policies, and climate and air quality policies.

  2. The Impact of Implementation of Total quality Management on Plants' Productivity: Evidence from Poultry Processing Plants- Saudi Arabia- Central Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ELHAJ ABDELMOULA.ELSIDDIG MUSA,

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Productivity index as an important business determinant factor for profitability and business performance has been studied in this research versus TQM varibles. The study highlighted out the impacts ofimplementation of TQM on productivity in poultry processing plants in Saudi Arabia – Central Region. The significance of this research represented in exploring the impact of TQM practices on Poultry Processing Plants' productivity. Seven determinants of TQM practices and their impacts were measured against productivity. The determinants included top management commitment, customer focus, rewards & training, continual improvement, cooperation & teamwork, prevention focus and measurement system. Data was collected by using Questionnaire tool. The Questionnaire is of closed ended questions. It consists of three parts, the first part is demographic information about the study sample, the second part about implementation of the total quality management and the third part is to measure productivity. A sample of three poultry processing plants that effectively implemented total quality management were purposively chosen out of eight plants in Saudi Arabia Central Region. The study respondents are purposively chosen which consists quality team, production supervisors, Total quality management and production managers. 73 respondents out 75 participated in the survey. The finding indicated that the TQM practices have positive impact on poultry processing plants' productivity.

  3. A Generalized Assessment of the Impact of Regionalization and Provider Learning on Patient Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yun; Lee, Shoou-Yih D; Gilleskie, Donna B; Sun, Yepeng; Padakandla, Arun; Jacobs, Bruce L; Montgomery, Jeffery S; Montie, James E; Wei, John T; Hollenbeck, Brent K

    2016-11-01

    We present a generalized model to assess the impact of regionalization on patient care outcomes in the presence of heterogeneity in provider learning. The model characterizes best regionalization policies as optimal allocations of patients across providers with heterogeneous learning abilities. We explore issues that arise when solving for best regionalization, which depends on statistically estimated provider learning curves. We explain how to maintain the problem's tractability and reformulate it into a binary integer program problem to improve solvability. Using our model, best regionalization solutions can be computed within reasonable time using current-day computers. We apply the model to minimally invasive radical prostatectomy and estimate that, in comparison to current care delivery, within-state regionalization can shorten length of stay by at least 40.8%.

  4. Modeling the Impact of Uganda's Safe Male Circumcision Program: Implications for Age and Regional Targeting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharine Kripke

    Full Text Available Uganda aims to provide safe male circumcision (SMC to 80% of men ages 15-49 by 2016. To date, only 2 million men have received SMC of the 4.2 million men required. In response to age and regional trends in SMC uptake, the country sought to re-examine its targets with respect to age and subnational region, to assess the program's progress, and to refine the implementation approach.The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0, was used in conjunction with incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM to conduct this analysis. Population, births, deaths, and HIV incidence and prevalence were used to populate the model. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the 2011 AIDS Indicator Survey. Uganda can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising men ages 20-34. This group will also require the fewest circumcisions for each HIV infection averted. Focusing on men ages 10-19 will offer the greatest impact over a 15-year period, while focusing on men ages 15-34 offers the most cost-effective strategy over the same period. A regional analysis showed little variation in cost-effectiveness of scaling up SMC across eight regions. Scale-up is cost-saving in all regions. There is geographic variability in program progress, highlighting two regions with low baseline rates of circumcision where additional efforts will be needed.Focusing SMC efforts on specific age groups and regions may help to accelerate Uganda's SMC program progress. Policy makers in Uganda have already used model outputs in planning efforts, proposing males ages 10-34 as a priority group for SMC in the 2014 application to the Global Fund's new funding model. As scale-up continues, the country should also consider a greater effort to expand SMC in regions with low MC prevalence.

  5. Assessing the Future Vehicle Fleet Electrification: The Impacts on Regional and Urban Air Quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke, Wenwei; Zhang, Shaojun; Wu, Ye; Zhao, Bin; Wang, Shuxiao; Hao, Jiming

    2017-01-17

    There have been significant advancements in electric vehicles (EVs) in recent years. However, the different changing patterns in emissions at upstream and on-road stages and complex atmospheric chemistry of pollutants lead to uncertainty in the air quality benefits from fleet electrification. This study considers the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in China to investigate whether EVs can improve future air quality. The Community Multiscale Air Quality model enhanced by the two-dimensional volatility basis set module is applied to simulate the temporally, spatially, and chemically resolved changes in PM2.5 concentrations and the changes of other pollutants from fleet electrification. A probable scenario (Scenario EV1) with 20% of private light-duty passenger vehicles and 80% of commercial passenger vehicles (e.g., taxis and buses) electrified can reduce average PM2.5 concentrations by 0.4 to 1.1 μg m(-3) during four representative months for all urban areas of YRD in 2030. The seasonal distinctions of the air quality impacts with respect to concentration reductions in key aerosol components are also identified. For example, the PM2.5 reduction in January is mainly attributed to the nitrate reduction, whereas the secondary organic aerosol reduction is another essential contributor in August. EVs can also effectively assist in mitigating NO2 concentrations, which would gain greater reductions for traffic-dense urban areas (e.g., Shanghai). This paper reveals that the fleet electrification in the YRD region could generally play a positive role in improving regional and urban air quality.

  6. Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Weather Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Jedlovee, Gary J.

    2010-01-01

    In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimension variational (3DVAR) analysis component (WRF-Var). Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in both clear and partly cloudy regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts due to instability added in the forecast soundings by the AIRS profiles. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

  7. Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudokas, Jason; Miller, Paul J; Trail, Marcus A; Russell, Armistead G

    2015-04-21

    We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.

  8. Health region development from the perspective of system theory - an empirical cross-regional case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volgger, Michael; Mainil, Tomas; Pechlaner, Harald; Mitas, Ondrej

    2015-01-01

    Governments are increasingly establishing health regions to deal with current challenges of public health service. These regions are seen as instruments to balance public and private stakeholders, and offer health care to regional citizens as well as to medical/health tourists. However, it is still unclear how the development of such health regions as well as their governance may be conceptualized. We apply Luhmann's system theory approach in the context of a cross-regional case study that compares health region developments in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano-South Tyrol (Italy) with particular regard to the Eastern Dolomites and in the province of Zeeland (the Netherlands). We suggest that Luhmann's system theory provides a useful set of criteria to evaluate and judge health region development. Fully developed health regions can be understood as auto-poietic systems. By emphasizing programs, personnel, and communication channels, these case studies illustrate the suitability of the system theory toolset to analyze the governance and spatial embeddedness of health regions. Additionally, the study contributes to literature by indicating that health regions are closely related to identity issues and to decision making in regions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The impact of inter-firm networks on regional development: the case of Mendoza’s wine cluster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verónica Alderete

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Cooperation among firms can be analyzed from different theoretical perspectives. The objective of this paper is to frame the analysis of firms’ networks according to the local economic development approach. Since fostering cooperation between firms is one of the main elements of local economic development, the objective of this study is to identify the activities and strategies of Mendoza’s Wine Cluster that drive the dynamics and development of this regional territory. We provide a theoretical and descriptive analysis to characterize some elements of local development and inter-firm cooperation, so as to identify the possible impacts of winery activity at a regional level.

  10. The Economic Impact of University System of Georgia Institutions on Their Regional Economies. A Needs Assessment Study Commissioned by Georgia's Intellectual Capital Partnership Program[R] (ICAPP[R]).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duhart, Sharon R.

    Using data from the 2 most recent fiscal years, this report calculates the economic benefits that the University System of Georgia's 34 institutions bring to their home regions and communities. The benefits are estimated for these categories: (1) spending by institutions themselves for salary and fringe benefits, operating supplies, and expenses,…

  11. Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Wada, Y.

    2017-01-01

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used.

  12. A political economy of environmental impact assessment in the Mekong region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Wells-Dang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA is an issue of concern to governments, organized civil society groups, as well as business actors in the Mekong region. EIA and related forms of environmental assessments are being carried out throughout the region with varying levels of quality, legal frameworks, monitoring and compliance. Through a political economy approach, we seek to understand the interests and incentives among key stakeholders in each of the five Mekong region countries and propose ways that EIA processes can potentially be improved, with reference to hydropower and other infrastructure and development projects. The analysis is based on a collaborative research process carried out under the auspices of the Mekong Partnership for the Environment, a USAID-funded program implemented by Pact that aims to advance regional cooperation on environmental governance. We find that at present, EIA implementation is limited by numerous political economy constraints, some general across the Mekong region, others specific to one or more country contexts. Certain of these constraints can be addressed through a regional cooperative approach, while others will require longer-term changes in social and political dynamics to encourage uptake and impact and avoid possible blockage from entrenched interest groups.

  13. Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct). A software tool for rapidly approximating economic impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Vargas, Vanessa N.; Loose, Verne William; Starks, Shirley J.; Ellebracht, Lory A.

    2011-07-01

    This paper describes the Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct) analysis tool that has been in use for the last 5 years to rapidly estimate approximate economic impacts for disruptions due to natural or manmade events. It is based on and derived from the well-known and extensively documented input-output modeling technique initially presented by Leontief and more recently further developed by numerous contributors. REAcct provides county-level economic impact estimates in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment for any area in the United States. The process for using REAcct incorporates geospatial computational tools and site-specific economic data, permitting the identification of geographic impact zones that allow differential magnitude and duration estimates to be specified for regions affected by a simulated or actual event. Using these data as input to REAcct, the number of employees for 39 directly affected economic sectors (including 37 industry production sectors and 2 government sectors) are calculated and aggregated to provide direct impact estimates. Indirect estimates are then calculated using Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) multipliers. The interdependent relationships between critical infrastructures, industries, and markets are captured by the relationships embedded in the inputoutput modeling structure.

  14. Spectral reflectance studies of the Grimaldi Region of the Moon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, C. A.; Hawke, B. R.; Lucey, P. G.; Coombs, C. R.; Spudis, P. D.

    Near-infrared reflectance spectra were used to investigate the composition and origin of the various geologic units in the Grimaldi region as well as the stratigraphy of the Grimaldi pre-impact target site. The results of our spectral analysis indicate that the portions of the Hevelius Formation that occur in the Grimaldi region are composed of noritic anorthosite and anorthositic norite. Gabbroic material was excavated from beneath Orientale-related units by small impact craters in three areas in the Grimaldi region. The primary ejecta deposits of the Grimaldi basin as well as the pre-Orientale floor unit are dominated by noritic anorthosite and anorthositic norite. The peak ring of Grimaldi is composed, at least in part, of pure anorthosite. The anorthosites on the inner ring and elsewhere within Grimaldi were derived from a layer of pure anorthosite that exists at depth beneath a more pyroxene-rich unit.

  15. Local and Regional Impacts of Pollution on Coral Reefs along the Thousand Islands North of the Megacity Jakarta, Indonesia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunilla Baum

    Full Text Available Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers, however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation.

  16. Using Different Spatial Scales of Climate Data for Regional Climate Impact Assessment: Effect on Crop Modeling Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Trabucco, A.; Montesarchio, M.; Mercogliano, P.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    The high vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate conditions causes serious concern regarding climate change impacts on crop development and production, particularly in vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean Basin. Crop simulation models are the most common tools applied for the assessment of such impacts on crop development and yields, both at local and regional scales. However, the use of these models in regional impact studies requires spatial input data for weather, soil, management, etc, whose resolution could affect simulation results. Indeed, the uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts on crop phenology and yield at the regional scale is affected not only by the uncertainty related to climate models and scenarios, but also by the downscaling methods and the resolution of climate data. The aim of this study was the evaluation of the effects of spatial resolutions of climate projections in estimating maturity date and grain yield for different varieties of durum wheat, common wheat and maize in Italy. The simulations were carried out using the CSM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize crop models included in the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, parameterized and evaluated in different experimental sites located in Italy. Dynamically downscaled climate data at different resolutions and different RCP scenarios were used as input in the crop models. A spatial platform, DSSAT-CSM based, developed in R programming language was applied to perform the simulation of maturity date and grain yield for durum wheat, common wheat and maize in each grid cell. Results, analyzed at the national and regional level, will be discussed.

  17. Allowable CO2 emissions based on projected changes in regional extremes and related impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus; Pitman, Andy; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted 2°C and 1.5° limits, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing CO2 emissions. Translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because they resonate better with national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean. Linking cumulative CO2 emission targets to regional consequences, such as changing climate extremes, would be of particular benefit for political decision making, both in the context of climate negotiations and adaptation.

  18. Caribbean Regional Communications Service Study. Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalor, Gerald C.

    A follow-up to a limited experiment with the use of satellites in education and public service conducted by the University of the West Indies (UWI) in 1978, this study explores the feasibility of providing a number of services, which would include an extension system based on the use of the UWI telecommunications network. The study was designed to…

  19. Impacts on regional climate of an afforestation scenario under a +2°C global warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strada, Susanna; Noblet-Ducoudré Nathalie, de; Marc, Stéfanon

    2017-04-01

    Through surface-atmosphere interactions (SAI), land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs) alter atmospheric conditions with effects on climate at different scales, from local/regional (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global scales (a few hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Focusing on the regional scale, in the context of climate change, LULCCs may either enhance or dampen climate impacts via changes in SAI they may initiate. Those LULCC-driven atmospheric impacts could in turn influence e.g. the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, with consequences on mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite LULCC impacts on regional climate are largely discussed in the literature, in Europe information is missing on LULCC impacts under future climate conditions on a country scale (Galos et al., 2015). The latest COPs have urged the scientific community to explore the impacts of reduced global warming (1.5°C to a +2°C) on the Earth system. LULCCs will be one major tool to achieve such targets. In this framework, we investigate impacts on regional climate of a modified landscape under a +2°C climatic scenario. To this purpose, we performed sensitivity studies over western Europe with a fully coupled land-atmosphere regional climate model, WRF-ORCHIDEE (Drobinski et al., 2012, Stefanon et al., 2014). A +2°C scenario was selected among those proposed by the "Impact2C" project (Vautard et al., 2014), and the afforested land-cover scenario proposed in the RCP4.5 is prescribed. We have chosen the maximum extent of forest RCP4.5 simulates for Europe at the end of the 21st century. WRF-ORCHIDEE is fed with boundary atmospheric conditions from the global climate model LMDZ for PD (1971-2000) and the +2°C warming period for the LMDZ model (2028-2057). Preliminary results over the target domain show that, under a +2°C global warming scenario, afforestation contributes by 2% to the total warming due to both climate change and LULCCs. During summer, the

  20. Impact of Mexico City emissions on regional air quality from MOZART-4 simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. K. Emmons

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available An extensive set of measurements was made in and around Mexico City as part of the MILAGRO (Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations experiments in March 2006. Simulations with the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4, a global chemical transport model, have been used to provide a regional context for these observations and assist in their interpretation. These MOZART-4 simulations reproduce the aircraft observations generally well, but some differences in the modeled volatile organic compounds (VOCs from the observations result from incorrect VOC speciation assumed for the emission inventories. The different types of CO sources represented in the model have been "tagged" to quantify the contributions of regions outside Mexico, as well as the various emissions sectors within Mexico, to the regional air quality of Mexico. This analysis indicates open fires have some, but not a dominant, impact on the atmospheric composition in the region around Mexico City when averaged over the month. However, considerable variation in the fire contribution (2–15% of total CO is seen during the month. The transport and photochemical aging of Mexico City emissions were studied using tags of CO emissions for each day, showing that typically the air downwind of Mexico City was a combination of many ages. Ozone production in MOZART-4 is shown to agree well with the net production rates from box model calculations constrained by the MILAGRO aircraft measurements. Ozone production efficiency derived from the ratio of Ox to NOz is higher in MOZART-4 than in the observations for moderately polluted air. OH reactivity determined from the MOZART-4 results shows the same increase in relative importance of oxygenated VOCs downwind of Mexico City as the reactivity inferred from the observations. The amount of ozone produced by emissions from Mexico City and surrounding areas has been quantified in the

  1. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  2. Impact of Mexico City emissions on regional air quality from MOZART-4 simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. K. Emmons

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available An extensive set of measurements was made in and around Mexico City as part of the MILAGRO (Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations experiments in March 2006. Simulations with the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4, a global chemical transport model, have been used to provide a regional context for these observations and assist in their interpretation. These MOZART-4 simulations reproduce the aircraft observations generally well, but some differences in the modeled volatile organic compounds (VOCs from the observations result from incorrect VOC speciation assumed for the emission inventories. The different types of CO sources represented in the model have been "tagged" to quantify the contributions of regions outside Mexico, as well as the various emissions sectors within Mexico, to the regional air quality of Mexico. This analysis indicates open fires have some, but not a dominant, impact on the atmospheric composition in the region around Mexico City, when averaged over the month. However, considerable variation in the fire contribution (2–15% of total CO is seen during the month. The transport and photochemical aging of Mexico City emissions were studied using tags of CO emissions for each day, showing that typically the air near Mexico City was a combination of many ages. Ozone production in MOZART-4 is shown to agree well with the net production rates from box model calculations constrained by the MILAGRO aircraft measurements. Ozone production efficiency derived from the ratio of Ox to NOz is higher in MOZART-4 than in the observations for moderately polluted air. OH reactivity determined from the MOZART-4 results shows the same increase in relative importance of oxygenated VOCs downwind of Mexico City as the reactivity inferred from the observations. The amount of ozone produced by emissions from Mexico City and surrounding areas has been quantified in the model by

  3. The WAMME regional model intercomparison study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew [Columbia University and NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, CCSR, New York (United States); Feng, Jinming [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); University of California at Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Cook, Kerry H. [The University of Texas at Austin, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX (United States); Xue, Yongkang [University of California at Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Hagos, Samson M. [University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, FL (United States); Konare, Abdourahamane [University of Cocody, Laboratoire de Physique Atmospherique, Abidjan (Ivory Coast); Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Rowell, David P. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Vizy, Edward K. [The University of Texas at Austin, Institute for Geophysics, Austin, TX (United States); Ibrah, Seidou Sanda [Universite Abdou Moumouni, Department of Physics, Niamey (Niger)

    2010-07-15

    Results from five regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME) initiative are analyzed. The RCMs were driven by boundary conditions from National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis II data sets and observed sea-surface temperatures (SST) over four May-October seasons, (2000 and 2003-2005). In addition, the simulations were repeated with two of the RCMs, except that lateral boundary conditions were derived from a continuous global climate model (GCM) simulation forced with observed SST data. RCM and GCM simulations of precipitation, surface air temperature and circulation are compared to each other and to observational evidence. Results demonstrate a range of RCM skill in representing the mean summer climate and the timing of monsoon onset. Four of the five models generate positive precipitation biases and all simulate negative surface air temperature biases over broad areas. RCM spatial patterns of June-September mean precipitation over the Sahel achieve spatial correlations with observational analyses of about 0.90, but within two areas south of 10 N the correlations average only about 0.44. The mean spatial correlation coefficient between RCM and observed surface air temperature over West Africa is 0.88. RCMs show a range of skill in simulating seasonal mean zonal wind and meridional moisture advection and two RCMs overestimate moisture convergence over West Africa. The 0.5 computing grid enables three RCMs to detect local minima related to high topography in seasonal mean meridional moisture advection. Sensitivity to lateral boundary conditions differs between the two RCMs for which this was assessed. The benefits of dynamic downscaling the GCM seasonal climate prediction are analyzed and discussed. (orig.)

  4. Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anenberg, S. C.; Talgo, K.; Arunachalam, S.; Dolwick, P.; Jang, C.; West, J. J.

    2011-07-01

    As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m-3 (1.8 %) and avoids 157 000 (95 % confidence interval, 120 000-194 000) annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %), followed by South Asia (India; 31 %), however South Asian emissions have 50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC emissions increases regional SO4 concentrations by up to 28 % of the magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ∼8 times more avoided deaths when BC and organic carbon (OC) emissions are halved together, suggesting

  5. Estimating the impact of mineral aerosols on crop yields in food insecure regions using statistical crop models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, A.; Forest, C. E.; Kemanian, A.

    2016-12-01

    A significant number of food-insecure nations exist in regions of the world where dust plays a large role in the climate system. While the impacts of common climate variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation, ozone, and carbon dioxide) on crop yields are relatively well understood, the impact of mineral aerosols on yields have not yet been thoroughly investigated. This research aims to develop the data and tools to progress our understanding of mineral aerosol impacts on crop yields. Suspended dust affects crop yields by altering the amount and type of radiation reaching the plant, modifying local temperature and precipitation. While dust events (i.e. dust storms) affect crop yields by depleting the soil of nutrients or by defoliation via particle abrasion. The impact of dust on yields is modeled statistically because we are uncertain which impacts will dominate the response on national and regional scales considered in this study. Multiple linear regression is used in a number of large-scale statistical crop modeling studies to estimate yield responses to various climate variables. In alignment with previous work, we develop linear crop models, but build upon this simple method of regression with machine-learning techniques (e.g. random forests) to identify important statistical predictors and isolate how dust affects yields on the scales of interest. To perform this analysis, we develop a crop-climate dataset for maize, soybean, groundnut, sorghum, rice, and wheat for the regions of West Africa, East Africa, South Africa, and the Sahel. Random forest regression models consistently model historic crop yields better than the linear models. In several instances, the random forest models accurately capture the temperature and precipitation threshold behavior in crops. Additionally, improving agricultural technology has caused a well-documented positive trend that dominates time series of global and regional yields. This trend is often removed before regression with

  6. Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Anenberg

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5, black carbon (BC is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m−3 (1.8 % and avoids 157 000 (95 % confidence interval, 120 000–194 000 annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %, followed by South Asia (India; 31 %, however South Asian emissions have 50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC emissions increases regional SO4 concentrations by up to 28 % of the magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ∼8 times

  7. East Asia’s energy needs: The impact on security and guidelines for regional governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Pareja Alcaraz

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The last three decades have witnessed a spectacular (and not easily sustainable increase in the global demand for energy. This trend has a particular significance in East Asia owing to its heavy industrialisation, which is promoting intense regional growth, on top of the already delicate balance of security in the region and the traditional refusal by the region’s states to delegate power and management to supranational bodies. The aim of this article is to analyse the impact of East Asia’s energy needs on security and on the instruments of order and governance that have been developed in the region up until the present time. Thus, the article is divided into two parts; the first analyses East Asia’s energy programme and its most significant features: 1 a high dependence on oil imports from other regions, especially the Middle East; 2 a persistence of high dependency on pollutant fossil fuels; and 3 a high degree of energy insecurity. Meanwhile, the second part assesses the impact of energy on regional relations in different areas of security and guidelines for regional government: 1 the securitisation of energy and of the environment; 2 the reactivation of certain maritime conflicts; 3 the transformation of certain threats, and conventional and non-conventional challenges to regional security; 4 the rise of non-state actors (mainly environmental businesses and NGOs in East Asia’s international relations; 5 the maintaining of bilateralism and the promotion of multilateral initiatives; and 6 the emergence of new extra-regional geopolitical links and balances.

  8. Economic Impact of Events and Festivals on Host Regions - Methods in Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diedering Madlen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The topic of economic significance of sport events attracts substantial attention in the fields of sport event management and economics. The main objective of this article is to review international literature on economic impact of sport events, and in particular, to give a special thought to key features of primary economic impact studies and potential sources of bias.

  9. Economic Impact of Events and Festivals on Host Regions - Methods in Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Diedering Madlen; Kwiatkowski Grzegorz

    2015-01-01

    Introduction. The topic of economic significance of sport events attracts substantial attention in the fields of sport event management and economics. The main objective of this article is to review international literature on economic impact of sport events, and in particular, to give a special thought to key features of primary economic impact studies and potential sources of bias.

  10. Regional impacts of oil and gas development on ozone formation in the western United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Marco A; Barna, Michael G; Moore, Tom

    2009-09-01

    The Intermountain West is currently experiencing increased growth in oil and gas production, which has the potential to affect the visibility and air quality of various Class I areas in the region. The following work presents an analysis of these impacts using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx). CAMx is a state-of-the-science, "one-atmosphere" Eulerian photochemical dispersion model that has been widely used in the assessment of gaseous and particulate air pollution (ozone, fine [PM2.5], and coarse [PM10] particulate matter). Meteorology and emissions inventories developed by the Western Regional Air Partnership Regional Modeling Center for regional haze analysis and planning are used to establish an ozone baseline simulation for the year 2002. The predicted range of values for ozone in the national parks and other Class I areas in the western United States is then evaluated with available observations from the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET). This evaluation demonstrates the model's suitability for subsequent planning, sensitivity, and emissions control strategy modeling. Once the ozone baseline simulation has been established, an analysis of the model results is performed to investigate the regional impacts of oil and gas development on the ozone concentrations that affect the air quality of Class I areas. Results indicate that the maximum 8-hr ozone enhancement from oil and gas (9.6 parts per billion [ppb]) could affect southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico. Class I areas in this region that are likely to be impacted by increased ozone include Mesa Verde National Park and Weminuche Wilderness Area in Colorado and San Pedro Parks Wilderness Area, Bandelier Wilderness Area, Pecos Wilderness Area, and Wheeler Peak Wilderness Area in New Mexico.

  11. 75 FR 77897 - Long Walk National Historic Trail Feasibility Study, Abbreviated Final Environmental Impact...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-14

    ... trail would be designated, emphasizing the removal experiences common to both tribes. An auto tour route... National Park Service Long Walk National Historic Trail Feasibility Study, Abbreviated Final Environmental Impact Statement, National Trails Intermountain Region, NM AGENCY: National Park Service,...

  12. Impact of SLA assimilation in the Sicily Channel Regional Model: model skills and mesoscale features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Olita

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the assimilation of MyOcean sea level anomalies along-track data on the analyses of the Sicily Channel Regional Model was studied. The numerical model has a resolution of 1/32° degrees and is capable to reproduce mesoscale and sub-mesoscale features. The impact of the SLA assimilation is studied by comparing a simulation (SIM, which does not assimilate data with an analysis (AN assimilating SLA along-track multi-mission data produced in the framework of MyOcean project. The quality of the analysis was evaluated by computing RMSE of the misfits between analysis background and observations (sea level before assimilation. A qualitative evaluation of the ability of the analyses to reproduce mesoscale structures is accomplished by comparing model results with ocean colour and SST satellite data, able to detect such features on the ocean surface. CTD profiles allowed to evaluate the impact of the SLA assimilation along the water column. We found a significant improvement for AN solution in terms of SLA RMSE with respect to SIM (the averaged RMSE of AN SLA misfits over 2 years is about 0.5 cm smaller than SIM. Comparison with CTD data shows a questionable improvement produced by the assimilation process in terms of vertical features: AN is better in temperature while for salinity it gets worse than SIM at the surface. This suggests that a better a-priori description of the vertical error covariances would be desirable. The qualitative comparison of simulation and analyses with synoptic satellite independent data proves that SLA assimilation allows to correctly reproduce some dynamical features (above all the circulation in the Ionian portion of the domain and mesoscale structures otherwise misplaced or neglected by SIM. Such mesoscale changes also infer that the eddy momentum fluxes (i.e. Reynolds stresses show major changes in the Ionian area. Changes in Reynolds stresses reflect a different pumping of eastward momentum from the eddy to

  13. Assessing Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Surficial Aquifer in the Kennedy Space Center Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Warnock, A. M.; Hall, C. R.

    2014-12-01

    Global sea level rise in the past century due to climate change has been seen at an average rate of approximately 1.7-2.2 mm per year, with an increasing rate over the next century. The increasing SLR rate poses a severe threat to the low-lying land surface and the shallow groundwater system in the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, resulting in saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding. A three-dimensional groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented to investigate and evaluate the extent of floods due to rising water table as well as saltwater intrusion. The SEAWAT model is chosen to solve the variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport governing equations and simulate the regional-scale spatial and temporal evolution of groundwater level and chloride concentration. The horizontal resolution of the model is 50 m, and the vertical domain includes both the Surficial Aquifer and the Floridan Aquifer. The numerical model is calibrated based on the observed hydraulic head and chloride concentration. The potential impacts of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding are assessed under various sea level rise scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the potential landward movement of saltwater and freshwater fringe is projected. The existing water supply wells are examined overlaid with the projected salinity distribution map. The projected Surficial Aquifer water tables are overlaid with data of high resolution land surface elevation, land use and land cover, and infrastructure to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise. This study provides useful tools for decision making on ecosystem management, water supply planning, and facility management.

  14. Assessing impact of climate change on forest cover type shifts in Western Himalayan Eco-region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    P.K.Joshi; Asha Rawat; Sheena Narula; Vinay Sinha

    2012-01-01

    Climate is a critical factor affecting forest ecosystems and their capacity to produce goods and services.Effects of climate change on forests depend on ecosystem-specific factors including dimensions of climate (texture,precipitation,drought,wind etc.).Available information is not sufficient to support a quantitative assessment of the ecological,social and economic consequences.The present study assessed shifts in forest cover types of Western Himalayan Eco-region (700-4500 m).100 randomly selected samples (75 for training and 25 for testing the model),genetic algorithm of rule set parameters and climatic envelopes were used to assess the distribution of five prominent forest cover types (Temperate evergreen,Tropical semi-evergreen,Temperate conifer,Subtropical conifer,and Tropical moist deciduous forests).Modelling was conducted for four different scenarios,current scenario,changed precipitation (8% increase),changed temperature (1.07℃ increase),and both changed temperature and precipitation.On increasing precipitation a downward shift in the temperate evergreen and tropical semi-evergreen was observed,while sub-tropical conifer and tropical moist-deciduous forests showed a slight upward shift and temperate conifer showed no shift.On increasing temperature,an upward shift in all forest types was observed except sub-tropical conifer forests without significant changes.When both temperature and precipitation were changed,the actual distribution was maintained and slight upward shift was observed in all the forest types except sub-tropical conifer.It is important to understand the likely impacts of the projected climate change on the forest ecosystems,so that better management and conservation strategies can be adopted for the bindiversity and forest dependent community.Knowledge of impact mechanisms also enables identification and mitigation of some of the conditions that increase vulnerability to climate change in the forest sector.

  15. Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

    2013-04-01

    From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically

  16. National and regional climate change impact assessments in the forestry sector. Workshop summary and abstracts of oral and poster presentations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindner, M. [ed.

    2000-07-01

    Climate change is likely to affect forests and the forest industry during the 21{sup st} century. Different processes in forest ecosystems and the forest sector are sensitive to climate and many different projects have been conducted, in which the scale of study varied from the individual leaf to the whole globe. Several attempts have been made to link impact models (e.g., ecological and socio-economic models), and to integrate them in national or regional climate impact assessment studies. However, integration of climate impact assessments for the forestry sector is still a relatively new issue on the research agenda. From November 10 to 13, 1999 the Postdam Institue for Climate Impact Research and the European Forest Institute organised a workshop in Wenddoche near Belzig (Germany) to bring together individuals and research groups from the currently developing research community, to provide a forum for the exchange of experience, and to stimulate further research collaboration. The workshop attracted 31 scientists from 12 countries, representing a wide range of disciplines covering ecophysiology, soils, forest ecology, growth and yield, silviculture, remote sensing, forest policy, and forest economics. Several presentations investigated possible impacts of climate change on forest growth and development. A second major topic was the carbon budget and the possible contribution of forestry to carbon dioxide mitigation. The third important focus was the application of economic models to estimate socio-economic consequences of changes in forest productivity and the linkage of ecological and economic models. Non-timber forest benefits were addressed in one regional impact assessment and in two national integrated assessments from the U.S. and Germany. The latter also included social components with the involvement of stakeholders and the decision making of forest owners under global change.

  17. Assessing the long term impact of power plant emissions on regional air pollution using extensive monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuval; Broday, David M

    2009-02-01

    In spite of the recent increasing interest in energy production from renewable sources, polluting hydrocarbon-fueled power plants will continue to provide most of the electricity to the world's population in the coming decades. This work studies the long term impact on the regional ambient air which can be attributable to three plants with different power outputs, fuel types, and stack heights. The study is carried out in an area with relatively flat topography and typical coastal meteorology. A dense air pollution monitoring network, operating for many years, makes this area a real life laboratory for studying the pollution routes, the impact of the sources at different directions and distances, and the effects of transition to cleaner fuel. The direct impact of each of the two large power plants on the ambient SO2 levels could be clearly detected in most of the monitoring stations at distances up to 40 km away. Interestingly, a relatively large impact can also be attributed to the indirect effect of emissions that are recirculated back to the region with the land breeze. The transition from using fuel oil to natural gas in one of the large power plants resulted in a dramatic reduction in the mean SO2 levels in all of the monitoring stations. The contribution of the industrial emissions to the ambient NO2 levels seems to be very modest relative to that from traffic. An analysis of the NO, NO2 and O3 records suggests that the highest mean NO2 concentrations, and a large proportion of the total NO2 encountered in the study area, are probably due to recirculated NOx emitted by traffic in a densely populated region north of it.

  18. Changes in intensity of the regional Hadley cell in Indian Ocean and its impacts on surrounding regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freitas, Ana Carolina Vasques; Aímola, Luis; Ambrizzi, Tércio; de Oliveira, Cristiano Prestrelo

    2016-09-01

    The impacts of changes in the intensity of the regional Hadley Cell (HC) in the Indian Ocean (HCIO) on its surrounding regions are investigated during the period 1979-2013. A strengthening of the HCIO and the Indian monsoon (IM) is found during austral winter (JJA) and spring (SON) seasons. This is associated with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific and Indian Ocean. A La Niña signal started to form in JJA over the equatorial Pacific region, and in SON, it was completely developed. Significant positive SST anomalies are seen over the western Pacific and western Indian Ocean around 10°S in JJA, associated with positive temperature anomalies in the south of China, in the north of the Maritime Continent, and in the southeastern coast of Africa. In SON, they are observed over the western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean around the equator, associated with positive temperature anomalies observed on a great part of the Maritime Continent and southeastern Atlantic Ocean. Positive rainfall anomalies are seen mainly over the south of India, south of China, Maritime Continent, and eastern coast of Australia. In SON, the connection monsoon-ENSO-Hadley is stronger, because of a series of positive feedbacks that reinforce the initial connection. SST gradients explain much of the variability in the intensity of the HCIO and, especially, of the IM. However, other factors also seem to come into play in determining the changes of the HCIO intensity, whereas the SST changes have a dominant influence on the IM.

  19. Regional characterization of freshwater Use in LCA: modeling direct impacts on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulay, Anne-Marie; Bulle, Cécile; Bayart, Jean-Baptiste; Deschênes, Louise; Margni, Manuele

    2011-10-15

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a methodology that quantifies potential environmental impacts for comparative purposes in a decision-making context. While potential environmental impacts from pollutant emissions into water are characterized in LCA, impacts from water unavailability are not yet fully quantified. Water use can make the resource unavailable to other users by displacement or quality degradation. A reduction in water availability to human users can potentially affect human health. If financial resources are available, there can be adaptations that may, in turn, shift the environmental burdens to other life cycle stages and impact categories. This paper proposes a model to evaluate these potential impacts in an LCA context. It considers the water that is withdrawn and released, its quality and scarcity in order to evaluate the loss of functionality associated with water uses. Regionalized results are presented for impacts on human health for two modeling approaches regarding affected users, including or not domestic uses, and expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALY). A consumption and quality based scarcity indicator is also proposed as a midpoint. An illustrative example is presented for the production of corrugated board with different effluents, demonstrating the importance of considering quality, process effluents and the difference between the modeling approaches.

  20. Health impacts of climate change and biosecurity in the Asian Pacific region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sly, Peter D

    2011-01-01

    Our climate is changing as a result of human activity, and such changes have the potential to have a significant impact on human health. The basic requirements for health--clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food and secure shelter--are all vulnerable to climate change. Low-income developing countries are especially vulnerable; no country, however, is totally immune. In Australia, we are already seeing evidence of the health effects of climate change with an increase in temperature-related food poisoning events and an increase in mosquito-borne infections, including Ross River virus and Dengue fever. In the Asian Pacific region the issues identified as most pressing vary from country to country, but a common theme is a lack of public understanding and education and lack of capacity for implementing mitigation strategies. Strategies addressing the health impacts of climate change must incorporate the principles of social justice and equity within the region.

  1. Inductive analysis about the impact of climate warming on regional geomorphic evolution in arid area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anayit, Mattohti; Abulizi, Mailiya

    2016-04-01

    Climate change on the surface of earth will produce a chain reaction among so many global natural environmental elements. Namely, all the issues will be affected by the climate change, just like the regional water environment, formation and development of landscape, plants and animals living environment, the survival of microorganisms, the human economic environment and health, and the whole social environment changes at well. But because of slow frequency of climate change and it is volatility change, its influence on other factors and the overall environmental performance is not obvious, and its reflection performs slowly. Using regional weather data, we calculated qualitatively and quantitatively and did analysis the impact of climate warming on Xinjiang (a province of China) geomorphic evolution elements, including the ground weather, erosion rate, collapse change, landslide occurrences changes and impact debris flow, combining the field survey and indoor test methods. Key words: climate change; the geomorphic induction; landscape change in river basin; Xinjiang

  2. Investigation and Development of Data-Driven D-Region Model for HF Systems Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D.; Sojka, J. J.; Hunsucker, R. D.

    2002-01-01

    Space Environment Corporation (SEC) and RP Consultants (RPC) are to develop and validate a weather-capable D region model for making High Frequency (HF) absorption predictions in support of the HF communications and radar communities. The weather-capable model will assimilate solar and earth space observations from NASA satellites. The model will account for solar-induced impacts on HF absorption, including X-rays, Solar Proton Events (SPE's), and auroral precipitation. The work plan includes: I . Optimize D-region model to quickly obtain ion and electron densities for proper HF absorption calculations. 2. Develop indices-driven modules for D-region ionization sources for low, mid, & high latitudes including X-rays, cosmic rays, auroral precipitation, & solar protons. (Note: solar spectrum & auroral modules already exist). 3. Setup low-cost monitors of existing HF beacons and add one single-frequency beacon. 4. Use PENEX HF-link database with HF monitor data to validate D-region/HF absorption model using climatological ionization drivers. 5. Develop algorithms to assimilate NASA satellite data of solar, interplanetary, and auroral observations into ionization source modules. 6. Use PENEX HF-link & HF-beacon data for skill score comparison of assimilation versus climatological D-region/HF absorption model. Only some satellites are available for the PENEX time period, thus, HF-beacon data is necessary. 7. Use HF beacon monitors to develop HF-link data assimilation algorithms for regional improvement to the D-region/HF absorption model.

  3. Climate change, water, and agriculture: a study of two contrasting regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.; Zhang, X.

    2009-12-01

    We present a study of potential impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in two contrasting regions, the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia and the Northern Great Plains in the United States. The Aral Sea basin is one of the most anthropogenically modified areas of the world; it is also a zone of a water-related ecological crisis. We concentrate on studying water security of five countries in the region, which inherit their water regulation from the planned economy of USSR. Water management was targeted at maximizing agricultural output through diverting the river flow into an extensive and largely ineffective network of irrigation canals. The current water crisis is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and discuss the impact of climate change on future development of the region. In the same way as the Aral Sea basin, the Northern Great Plains is expected to be a region heavily impacted by climate change. We concentrate on

  4. THE IMPACT OF THE EUROPEAN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND ON SMES – EVIDENCE FROM ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciocoiu Cristina-Elena

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available As the first programming period for Romania is reaching its end, more information becomes available regarding the effects of the European Union funds on the Romanian economy. Going beyond the mathematical absorption rate, it is important to analyse these effects, especially with regard to the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs, in order to improve the future implementation documents for 2014-2020. The purpose of this article is to measure the impact of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF, granted within one of the 2007-2013 operational programmes, on the net turnover, number of staff and gross profit of the small and medium-sized enterprises from one Romanian county – Iasi. Overcoming the difficulties of gathering reliable data, the empirical research presented in this article tests three hypotheses. The first one is that the EU funding provided to an SME leads to an increase in its net turnover, number of staff and gross profit. The second hypothesis is that there is a direct relationship between the amount of the grant given to an SME and the evolution of the three previously mentioned parameters. The third and last tested hypothesis is that the SMEs that implemented more than one EU-funded project have a better evolution than the ones that implemented only one. The conclusions of our study include recommendations for the implementation guides that are currently being drafted by the responsible national authorities. They also include suggestions with regard to the availability of data concerning the EU-funded projects, especially in the context of the new requirements of the European Union regarding e-cohesion and information and communication. In this context, we also explore the potential benefits of implementing projects that complement each other instead of independent projects. As such, the research presented in this article aims to contribute to a better understanding of the impact of the EU regional development policy

  5. Environmental impacts of shipping in 2030 with a particular focus on the Arctic region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. B. Dalsøren

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available We quantify the concentrations changes and Radiative Forcing (RF of short-lived atmospheric pollutants due to shipping emissions of NOx, SOx, CO, NMVOCs, BC and OC. We use high resolution ship emission inventories for the Arctic that are more suitable for regional scale evaluation than those used in former studies. A chemical transport model and a RF model are used to evaluate the time period 2004–2030, when we expect increasing traffic in the Arctic region. Two datasets for ship emissions are used that characterize the potential impact from shipping and the degree to which shipping controls may mitigate impacts: a high (HIGH scenario and a low scenario with Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR of black carbon in the Arctic. In MFR, BC emissions in the Arctic are reduced with 70% representing a combination technology performance and/or reasonable advances in single-technology performance. Both scenarios result in moderate to substantial increases in concentrations of pollutants both globally and in the Arctic. Exceptions are black carbon in the MFR scenario, and sulfur species and organic carbon in both scenarios due to the future phase-in of current regulation that reduces fuel sulfur content. In the season with potential transit traffic through the Arctic in 2030 we find increased concentrations of all pollutants in large parts of the Arctic. Net global RFs from 2004–2030 of 53 mW m−2 (HIGH and 73 mW m−2 (MFR are similar to those found for preindustrial to present net global aircraft RF. The found warming contrasts with the cooling from historical ship emissions. The reason for this difference and the higher global forcing for the MFR scenario is mainly the reduced future fuel sulfur content resulting in less cooling from sulfate aerosols. The Arctic RF is largest in the HIGH scenario. In the HIGH scenario ozone dominates the RF during the transit season (August–October. RF due to BC in air, and

  6. GIS-based regionalized life cycle assessment: how big is small enough? Methodology and case study of electricity generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutel, Christopher L; Pfister, Stephan; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2012-01-17

    We describe a new methodology for performing regionalized life cycle assessment and systematically choosing the spatial scale of regionalized impact assessment methods. We extend standard matrix-based calculations to include matrices that describe the mapping from inventory to impact assessment spatial supports. Uncertainty in inventory spatial data is modeled using a discrete spatial distribution function, which in a case study is derived from empirical data. The minimization of global spatial autocorrelation is used to choose the optimal spatial scale of impact assessment methods. We demonstrate these techniques on electricity production in the United States, using regionalized impact assessment methods for air emissions and freshwater consumption. Case study results show important differences between site-generic and regionalized calculations, and provide specific guidance for future improvements of inventory data sets and impact assessment methods.

  7. Predicted detection rates of regional-scale meteorite impacts on Mars with the InSight short-period seismometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teanby, N. A.

    2015-08-01

    In 2016 NASA will launch the InSight discovery-class mission, which aims to study the detailed internal structure of Mars for the first time. Short- and long-period seismometers form a major component of InSight's payload and have the potential to detect seismic waves generated by meteorite impacts. Large globally detectable impact events producing craters with diameters of ∼ 100 m have been investigated previously and are likely to be rare (Teanby, N.A., Wookey, J. [2011]. Phys. Earth Planet. Int. 186, 70-80), but smaller impacts producing craters in the 0.5-20 m range are more numerous and potentially occur sufficiently often to be detectable on regional scales (≲1000 km). At these distances, seismic waves will have significant high frequency content and will be suited to detection with InSight's short-period seismometer SEIS-SP. In this paper I estimate the current martian crater production function from observations of new craters (Malin, M.C. et al. [2006]. Science 314, 1573-1577; Daubar, I.J. et al. [2013]. Icarus 225, 506-516), model results (Williams, J.P., Pathare, A.V., Aharonson, O. [2014]. Icarus 235, 23-36), and standard isochrons (Hartmann, W.K. [2005]. Icarus 174, 294-320). These impact rates are combined with an empirical relation between impact energy, source-receiver distance, and peak seismogram amplitude, derived from a compilation of seismic recordings of terrestrial and lunar impacts, chemical explosions, and nuclear tests. The resulting peak seismogram amplitude scaling law contains significant uncertainty, but can be used to predict impact detection rates. I estimate that for a short-period instrument, with a noise spectral density of 10-8 ms-2 Hz-1/2 in the 1-16 Hz frequency band, approximately 0.1-30 regional impacts per year should be detectable with a nominal value of 1-3 impacts per year. Therefore, small regional impacts are likely to be a viable source of seismic energy for probing Mars' crustal and upper mantle structure. This is

  8. Collaborative experiment on intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models for climate impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krysanova, Valentina; Hattermann, Fred

    2015-04-01

    The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) is a community-driven modelling effort bringing together impact modellers across sectors and scales to create more consistent and comprehensive projections of the impacts of climate change. This project is aimed in establishing a long-term, systematic, cross-sectoral impact model intercomparison process, including comparison of climate change impacts for multiple sectors using ensemble of climate scenarios and applying global and regional impact models. The project is coordinated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. An overview of this project and collaborative experiment related to the regional-scale water sector model intercomparison in ISI-MIP will be presented. The regional-scale water sector modelling includes eleven models applied to eleven large-scale river basins worldwide (not every model is applied to every of eleven basins). In total, 60-65 model applications will be done by several collaborating groups from different Institutions. The modelling tools include: ECOMAG, HBV, HBV-light, HYPE, LASCAM, LISFLOOD, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP. Eleven river basins chosen for the model application and intercomparison are: the Rhine and Tagus in Europe, the Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, the Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, the Upper Mississippi and Upper Amazon in America, and the Murray-Darling in Australia. Their drainage areas range between 67,490 km2 (Tagus) to 2,460,000 km2 (Lena). Data from global and regional datasets are used for the model setup and calibration. The model calibration and validation was done using the WATCH climate data for all cases, also checking the representation of high and low percentiles of river discharge. For most of the basins, also intermediate gauge stations were included in the calibration. The calibration and validation results, evaluated with the Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS), are mostly

  9. Unplanned roads impacts assessment in Phewa Lake watershed, Western region, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leibundgut, Geoffroy; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Devkota, Sanjaya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Penna, Ivanna; Adhikari, Anu; Khanal, Rajendra

    2015-04-01

    This work describes current research being conducted in the Phewa Lake watershed, near Pokhara in Nepal's Siwaliks/Middle hills, a moist sub-tropical zone with the highest amount of annual rainfall in Nepal (4,500 - 5,000 mm). The watershed lithology is mainly siltstone, sandstones and intensively weathered rocks, highly prone to erosion and shallow landslides (Agrawala et al., 2003). The main purpose of this study is to focus on the impact of unplanned earthen road construction in the Phewa Lake watershed as part of land use changes over 30 years in one of Nepal's most touristic regions. Over the past three decades, the road network has expanded exponentially and a majority of rural earthen roads are often funded by communities themselves, with some government subsidies. They are usually constructed using a local bulldozer contractor with no technical or geological expertise increasing erosion processes, slope instabilities risk and impacts to settlements, forests, water sources, agriculture lands, and infrastructure. Moreover, these human-induced phenomena are being compounded by increasingly intense monsoon rains, likely due to climate change (Petley, 2010). Research methods were interdisciplinary and based on a combination of remote sensing, field observations and discussions with community members. The study compared 30 year-old aerial photos with current high resolution satellite images to correlate changes in land use with erosion and slope instabilities. Secondly, most of the watershed's roads were surveyed in order to inventory and quantify slope instabilities and soil loss events. Using a failure-characteristics grid, their main features were measured (location, size, type and extension of damage areas, etc.) and a GIS data base was created. We then estimated economic impacts of these events in terms of agriculture lands losses and road maintenance, based on field observations and discussions with affected people. Field work investigations have shown that

  10. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; Ponnusamy, Paramasivam; Rasnayaka, Herath; Singh, Harbir

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  11. Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kim, Patrick S.; Gaveau, David L. A.; Koplitz, Shannon N.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Margono, Belinda A.; Myers, Samuel S.

    2015-05-01

    Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010-2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations and

  12. The impact of new ionizing fluxes on ISO observations of HII regions and starbursts

    CERN Document Server

    Schärer, D; Schaerer, Daniel; Stasinska, Grazyna

    1998-01-01

    Extensive grids of photoionization models have been calculated for single star HII regions and evolving starbursts. We illustrate the predictions for IR fine structure lines which are used to analyse the stellar content, and derive properties such as the age and IMF. The impact of recent ionizing fluxes on the IR lines are shown. First comparisons of our starburst models with IR-diagnostics and the ISO observations of Genzel et al. (1998) are also presented.

  13. Economic Diplomacy in Africa: The Impact of Regional Integration versus Bilateral Diplomacy on Bilateral Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku

    2016-01-01

    The paper examines the impact of two main instruments of economic diplomacy — regional integration and commercial diplomacy on export flows among African states. We test whether there is any evidence of a trade-off or complementary interaction between these two instruments in trade facilitation. We compare the effects of these two instruments of economic diplomacy on bilateral trade by employing a gravity model for 45 African states over the period 1980-2005. The results show that bilateral d...

  14. Regional dynamical downscaling for urban environment to estimate the potential impact of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göndöcs, Júlia; Breuer, Hajnalka; Pongrácz, Rita; Bartholy, Judit

    2017-04-01

    The RegCM regional climate model is designed to capture the regional meteorological processes with finer horizontal resolution than the global climate models, however, the scale of urban processes requires even finer scale, and definitely non-hydrostatic approach. Furthermore, in our target area, i.e. the Carpathian Basin, the built-up areas are not presented well enough (this is especially true for Budapest, the capital of Hungary). That is why to analyse the effects of climate change on urban environment dynamical downscaling should use finer scale and more complex terrain. In our model configuration, downscaling is carried out with the non-hydrostatic mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, with updated surface databases, such as land use (with 5 urban surface categories), climatological albedo, topography, and spatial distribution of urban parameters. To execute the model, the initial fields needed by WRF are initialized using the RegCM (RegCM4.3) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 output fields at every 6 hours on selected dates during three periods (past: 1971-2000; future: 2016-2045 and 2061-2090). Earlier studies showed that the frequency and the lifetime of heat waves are projected to last longer and be more intense, which causes further stress both for the human body and the environment. Based on these considerations, the WRF model coupled to multilayer urban canopy parameterisation was run only for the heat wave days in July from the aforementioned periods in the past and in the future, as well. In order to keep the stability of the simulations, the entire downscaling is carried out in several steps using gradually smaller domains embedded to each other. Thus, three embedded target areas have been determined for this modelling study, the largest external area covers the whole Pannonian region with 10 km horizontal resolution, whereas the innermost domain covers Budapest and its surroundings with 1 km grid resolution. Among the numerous derived fields

  15. Neutron scattering studies in the actinide region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beghian, L.E.; Kegel, G.H.R.

    1991-08-01

    During the report period we have investigated the following areas: Neutron elastic and inelastic scattering measurements on {sup 14}N, {sup 181}Ta, {sup 232}Th, {sup 238}U and {sup 239}Pu; Prompt fission spectra for {sup 232}Th, {sup 235}U, {sup 238}U and {sup 239}Pu; Theoretical studies of neutron scattering; Neutron filters; New detector systems; and Upgrading of neutron target assembly, data acquisition system, and accelerator/beam-line apparatus.

  16. Development of Regional Measurement Methods: The Context for Quantifying Influence and Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Brabec

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Many urban areas, in both developed and developing countries, have been subject to the forces of relatively uncontrolled expansion and sprawl. While the political, social and economic drivers of sprawl may not affect urban areas identically, all urban areas rely on suburban, rural, and other less densely settled lands to supply the resources necessary for their existence. Sprawling land patterns have changed the regional balance between land dedicated to resource consumption (urban areas and resource production (rural areas, a balance essential for the long-term sustainability of human systems. In this context, it is critical for the long-term vitality of urban areas to ensure that resource consumptive and productive land patterns are in balance. Current measurement methods, however, such as indicator frameworks, ecological footprint analysis, and urban metabolism, focus primarily on the urban portion of the region and neglect exurb an areas. In order to quantify the impacts of various urban land patterns on their supporting resources, and to assess the relative properties (or impacts of various land patterns, exurb an lands must be included as an integral part of the assessment scheme. This need for a regional view has driven the development of a quantitative measurement method called regional characteristic curves, which enables relative comparisons between regional land use patterns. The purpose of this paper is to review the range of historical and current land-pattern measurement methods, detail their properties in addressing regional land-pattern comparison, and illustrate the niche filled by the regional characteristic curve method.

  17. Disturbance to desert soil ecosystems contributes to dust-mediated impacts at regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pointing, Stephen B.; Belnap, Jayne

    2014-01-01

    This review considers the regional scale of impacts arising from disturbance to desert soil ecosystems. Deserts occupy over one-third of the Earth’s terrestrial surface, and biological soil covers are critical to stabilization of desert soils. Disturbance to these can contribute to massive destabilization and mobilization of dust. This results in dust storms that are transported across inter-continental distances where they have profound negative impacts. Dust deposition at high altitudes causes radiative forcing of snowpack that leads directly to altered hydrological regimes and changes to freshwater biogeochemistry. In marine environments dust deposition impacts phytoplankton diazotrophy, and causes coral reef senescence. Increasingly dust is also recognized as a threat to human health.

  18. Impacts of the Future Changes in Extreme Events on the Regional Crop Yield in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The changes in extreme events caused by climate change have the greatest impact on agricultural sector specifically crop yield. Therefore, it requires a clear understanding of how extreme events affect the crop yield and how it causes high economic losses. In this research, we cover the relationship between extreme events and the crop yield in Turkey for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005. We focus on the role of those extreme event causing natural disasters on the regional crop yield. This research comprises 2 parts. In the first part, the projection is performed according to the business as usual scenario of IPCC, RCP8.5, via the RegCM4.4 in order to obtain extreme event indices required for the crop assessment. In the second part, the crop yield and the extreme event indices are combined by applying the econometric analysis in order to see the relationship between natural disasters and crop yield. The risks for crop yield caused by the extreme events are estimated and interpreted. This study aims to assess the effect of frequency of expected extreme events on the crop yield at the cropland of Turkey. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  19. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  20. Environmental impact of copper mining and metallurgy during the Bronze Age at Kargaly (Orenburg region, Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vicent García, Juan Manuel

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Kargaly (Orenburg, Russia is a copper-producing region in which two main phases of mining activity have taken place: the 4th-2nd millennia BC and the 18th-20th centuries AD. This article is a comparative study on the impact of those mining episodes in the distribution of the forest resources in the region, aimed to estimate the scale of prehistoric mining and metallurgical works. For that purpose two paleopalinological sequences obtained from natural deposits located in Kargaly are analysed by inferential Statistics and Multivariate Methods. The results are compared both with a regional sampling of recent pollen rain supported by an analytical model of the present day landscape, and with the anthracological data coming from the Late Bronze Age settlement of Gorny 1. Analysis confirm the large scale of the prehistoric mining impact on the forest cover from the beginnings, as well as the strong effect of husbandry once mining works ended. These results allow us to dismiss a climatic change as main explanation for the detected diachronic variability in the palinological record. They also prove the viability of the proposed approach as a means of integrating the paleoenvironmental disciplines in Landscape Archaeology.

    Kargaly (región de Orenburgo, Rusia es una región cuprífera explotada entre los milenios IV y II cal BC y los siglos XVIII y XX d.C. El objetivo del artículo es estudiar comparativamente el impacto de estos episodios mineros en la distribución de los recursos forestales de la región, para aproximar la escala de las operaciones minero-metalúrgicas prehistóricas. Para ello se analizan con métodos estadísticos inferenciales y multivariantes dos secuencias paleopalinológicas procedentes de depósitos naturales de la región y se comparan con un muestreo regional de la lluvia polínica reciente apoyado por un modelo analítico del paisaje actual y con los datos antracol

  1. Case Study Report about Gender Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Stine Thidemann; Agustin, Lise Rolandsen

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this national case study report is to take a closer look at the use of Gender Impact Assessments in Denmark in order to describe the Danish implementation of this specific Gender Mainstreaming method. By way of analyzing two selected cases (two law proposals put forward by The Danish...... Ministry of Employment and the Danish Ministry of Transport, respectively) the aim is to assess the transformative potential of GIA as it is performed in Denmark....

  2. Extending the Multi Regional Input-Output framework to labor related impacts: a proof of concept

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hardadi, Gilang; Pizzol, Massimo

    2017-01-01

    -O framework to social impacts. These challenges are addressed in this study where the Exiobase database was extended with new data on five quantitative indicators available from the International Labor Organization: employment; working hours; salary; occupational accident cases; and unemployment...

  3. Impact of the directions of investment on the production and economical effects of farms in the Bydgoszcz sub-region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Sass

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of the direction of investment on selected production and economical effects of farms in the Bydgoszcz sub-region. The data collected by the Agricultural Advisory Centre in Minikowo for 1994- -2007 concerning the opinions issued for the farmers applying for preferential loans con-stituted the basic source of information. Moreover, the results of FADN accountancy were also used. 220 farms that made use of preferential loans and uninterruptedly ran accoun-tancy in 2004-2008 were covered by the analysis. Deferred results of investments initiated in 1994were assessed. The conducted studies do not make it possible to determine precisely the impact of the investment’s direction on the production and economical effects of farms, as the separated groups of farms are not uniform from the point of view of the purpose of the studies.

  4. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    OpenAIRE

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simula...

  5. Monitoring of copper, arsenic and antimony levels in agricultural soils impacted and non-impacted by mining activities, from three regions in Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Gregori, Ida; Fuentes, Edwar; Rojas, Mariela; Pinochet, Hugo; Potin-Gautier, Martine

    2003-04-01

    This paper reports a comparative study of the concentration of three important environmental elements that are often found together in mineral deposits and then associated with mining activities; copper, arsenic and antimony. These elements were determined in 26 different agricultural soils from regions I, II and V in Chile, zones where the most important and biggest copper industries of this country are located. As background levels of these elements in soils have not been well established, in this study, both, impacted and non-impacted agricultural soils from different regions were considered. The relationships between the concentrations of these elements in soils were also examined. The concentration ranges for copper, arsenic and antimony were 11-530; 2.7-202 and 0.42-11 mg kg(-1) respectively. The copper concentrations in non-polluted soils from the north and central zone of Chile were similar. However, three sites from the north region have copper concentration as higher as 100 mg kg(-1), values that exceed the critical concentration for copper in soils. The concentration of arsenic and antimony in the north soils were higher than in non-impacted ones and, in the case of arsenic, greatly exceeded the world average concentration reported for this element in soils. The highest arsenic and antimony concentrations were found in Calama and Quillagua soils, two different sites in the Loa valley. The arsenic/antimony concentration ratio was higher in Quillagua soil. The high concentrations of three elements determined in impacted soils from region V (Puchuncaví and Catemu valleys) clearly shows the impact produced in this zone by the industrial and mining activities developed in their proximities. At Puchuncaví valley a clear decrease was observed in copper, arsenic and antimony concentrations in soils on the function of the distance from the industrial complex "Las Ventanas", and all concentrations exceeded the reported critical values for this matrix. Instead at

  6. Engaging stakeholders in global change risk and vulnerability planning: a case study of the Kruger to Canyons Biosphere Region

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis, C

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Understanding climatic changes and their possible impacts on society is essential in critical sectors in South Africa in order to improve strategic adaptation responses. The study presented here, based in the Kruger to Canyons Biosphere Region, aims...

  7. Assessments of regional climate change and its impacts in Northern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Reckermann, Marcus; Quante, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Regional climate change assessments are urgently needed to complement the big picture with regional results and scenarios of higher resolution and with relevance for local decision makers and stakeholders. A new type of assessment report originated in the original BACC report of 2008 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region) which has served as role model for other assessments published or in preparation. It represents an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). Reports of this type which are available or underway are the original BACC book (2008), the second BACC book (2015), the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment) which is expected to be published in 2016. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. An outstanding outreach aspect of these reports is the close collaboration with regional stakeholders (for the BACC reports: HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region; for the Hamburg climate report: the Hamburg city

  8. Arctic Oscillation impact on thermal regime of the Baltic region Eastern part

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gecaite, Indre; Pogoreltsev, Aleksandr; Ugryumov, Aleksandr

    2016-04-01

    Statistical estimations of Arctic Oscillation (AO) impact on air temperature regime in the Eastern part of Baltic region are presented. The region is characterized by high inter-annual and inter-seasonal variabilities. It is important to note that in the region of global warming extremely low winter temperatures can be observed on the European territory of Russia. AO is one of large-scale global structures of atmospheric circulation closely associated with weather variability in Northern Europe. AO anomalies occur in the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) and only then transferred to tropospheric lower layers. The anomalies can be preserved during long period up to two months, so they can be predictors in long-range weather forecast. In turn, changes in stratospheric polar vortex and sudden stratospheric warmings can be related to the geomagnetic activity. Perhaps, the geomagnetic activity influences the meridional temperature gradient and then changes in the structure of the stratospheric zonal wind. In turn, the changes have an impact on the tropospheric circulation. The stratosphere-troposphere connection occurs during winter months. Therefore, the paper presents the analysis of extremely cold winter anomalies in the Eastern part of Baltic Sea region. At the same time, we considered atmospheric circulation peculiarities related to AO phase change. The analyzable time interval covers 1951-2014.

  9. Economic Diplomacy in Africa: The Impact of Regional Integration versus Bilateral Diplomacy on Bilateral Trade