Terrestrial Carbon Sinks in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado Region Predicted from MODIS Satellite Data and Ecosystem Modeling

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A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado regions over the period 2000-2004. Pr...

Modelling carbon cycle of agro-forest ecosystems in Lombardy (Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Colombo R

2009-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper we present a methodology for the estimation of Gross Primary Production (GPP, Net Primary Production (NPP and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP for the main agricultural and forest ecosystems of the Lombardia Region (Italy. The MOD17 model was parameterized according to the different agro-forestry ecosystems and applied at regional scale by using satellite data with a spatial resolution of 250m. The high spatial resolution along with fine classification agro-forestry ecosystems has allowed to accurately analyze the carbon budget of an extremely fragmented and complex environment such as the Lombardia Region. Modeling results showed the role of the forests in the carbon budget at regional scale and represent important information layer for the spatial analysis and for inferring the inter-annual variability of carbon sequestration due to impacts of extreme events and recent climate change (e.g., drought, heat wave, flooding, fires.

The Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst (RHEA): a simulation modeling tool to assist infectious disease control in a health system.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Bruce Y; Wong, Kim F; Bartsch, Sarah M; Yilmaz, S Levent; Avery, Taliser R; Brown, Shawn T; Song, Yeohan; Singh, Ashima; Kim, Diane S; Huang, Susan S

2013-06-01

As healthcare systems continue to expand and interconnect with each other through patient sharing, administrators, policy makers, infection control specialists, and other decision makers may have to take account of the entire healthcare 'ecosystem' in infection control. We developed a software tool, the Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst (RHEA), that can accept user-inputted data to rapidly create a detailed agent-based simulation model (ABM) of the healthcare ecosystem (ie, all healthcare facilities, their adjoining community, and patient flow among the facilities) of any region to better understand the spread and control of infectious diseases. To demonstrate RHEA's capabilities, we fed extensive data from Orange County, California, USA, into RHEA to create an ABM of a healthcare ecosystem and simulate the spread and control of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. Various experiments explored the effects of changing different parameters (eg, degree of transmission, length of stay, and bed capacity). Our model emphasizes how individual healthcare facilities are components of integrated and dynamic networks connected via patient movement and how occurrences in one healthcare facility may affect many other healthcare facilities. A decision maker can utilize RHEA to generate a detailed ABM of any healthcare system of interest, which in turn can serve as a virtual laboratory to test different policies and interventions.

Current and future carbon budget at Takayama site, Japan, evaluated by a regional climate model and a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model.

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Kuribayashi, Masatoshi; Noh, Nam-Jin; Saitoh, Taku M; Ito, Akihiko; Wakazuki, Yasutaka; Muraoka, Hiroyuki

2017-06-01

Accurate projection of carbon budget in forest ecosystems under future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration is important to evaluate the function of terrestrial ecosystems, which serve as a major sink of atmospheric CO 2 . In this study, we examined the effects of spatial resolution of meteorological data on the accuracies of ecosystem model simulation for canopy phenology and carbon budget such as gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem production (NEP) of a deciduous forest in Japan. Then, we simulated the future (around 2085) changes in canopy phenology and carbon budget of the forest by incorporating high-resolution meteorological data downscaled by a regional climate model. The ecosystem model overestimated GPP and ER when we inputted low-resolution data, which have warming biases over mountainous landscape. But, it reproduced canopy phenology and carbon budget well, when we inputted high-resolution data. Under the future climate, earlier leaf expansion and delayed leaf fall by about 10 days compared with the present state was simulated, and also, GPP, ER and NEP were estimated to increase by 25.2%, 23.7% and 35.4%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that the increase of NEP in June and October would be mainly caused by rising temperature, whereas that in July and August would be largely attributable to CO 2 fertilization. This study suggests that the downscaling of future climate data enable us to project more reliable carbon budget of forest ecosystem in mountainous landscape than the low-resolution simulation due to the better predictions of leaf expansion and shedding.

Predicting ecosystem dynamics at regional scales: an evaluation of a terrestrial biosphere model for the forests of northeastern North America.

Science.gov (United States)

Medvigy, David; Moorcroft, Paul R

2012-01-19

Terrestrial biosphere models are important tools for diagnosing both the current state of the terrestrial carbon cycle and forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change. While there are a number of ongoing assessments of the short-term predictive capabilities of terrestrial biosphere models using flux-tower measurements, to date there have been relatively few assessments of their ability to predict longer term, decadal-scale biomass dynamics. Here, we present the results of a regional-scale evaluation of the Ecosystem Demography version 2 (ED2)-structured terrestrial biosphere model, evaluating the model's predictions against forest inventory measurements for the northeast USA and Quebec from 1985 to 1995. Simulations were conducted using a default parametrization, which used parameter values from the literature, and a constrained model parametrization, which had been developed by constraining the model's predictions against 2 years of measurements from a single site, Harvard Forest (42.5° N, 72.1° W). The analysis shows that the constrained model parametrization offered marked improvements over the default model formulation, capturing large-scale variation in patterns of biomass dynamics despite marked differences in climate forcing, land-use history and species-composition across the region. These results imply that data-constrained parametrizations of structured biosphere models such as ED2 can be successfully used for regional-scale ecosystem prediction and forecasting. We also assess the model's ability to capture sub-grid scale heterogeneity in the dynamics of biomass growth and mortality of different sizes and types of trees, and then discuss the implications of these analyses for further reducing the remaining biases in the model's predictions.

Estimating net ecosystem exchange of carbon using the normalized difference vegetation index and an ecosystem model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veroustraete, F.; Patyn, J.; Myneni, R.B.

1996-01-01

The evaluation and prediction of changes in carbon dynamics at the ecosystem level is a key issue in studies of global change. An operational concept for the determination of carbon fluxes for the Belgian territory is the goal of the presented study. The approach is based on the integration of remotely sensed data into ecosystem models in order to evaluate photosynthetic assimilation and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Remote sensing can be developed as an operational tool to determine the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (feAR). A review of the methodological approach of mapping fPAR dynamics at the regional scale by means of NOAA11-A VHRR / 2 data for the year 1990 is given. The processing sequence from raw radiance values to fPAR is presented. An interesting aspect of incorporating remote sensing derived fPAR in ecosystem models is the potential for modeling actual as opposed to potential vegetation. Further work should prove whether the concepts presented and the assumptions made in this study are valid. (NEE). Complex ecosystem models with a highly predictive value for a specific ecosystem are generally not suitable for global or regional applications, since they require a substantial set of ancillary data becoming increasingly larger with increasing complexity of the model. The ideal model for our purpose is one that is simple enough to be used in global scale modeling, and which can be adapted for different ecosystems or vegetation types. The fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) during the growing season determines in part net photosynthesis and phytomass production (Ruimy, 1995). Remotely measured red and near-infrared spectral reflectances can be used to estimate fPAR. Therefore, a possible approach is to estimate net photosynthesis, phytomass, and NEE from a combination of satellite data and an ecosystem model that includes carbon dynamics. It has to be stated that some parts of the work presented in this

A Regional Multi-permit Market for Ecosystem Services

Science.gov (United States)

Bernknopf, R.; Amos, P.; Zhang, E.

2014-12-01

Regional cap and trade programs have been in operation since the 1970's to reduce environmental externalities (NOx and SOx emissions) and have been shown to be beneficial. Air quality and water quality limits are enforced through numerous Federal and State laws and regulations while local communities are seeking ways to protect regional green infrastructure and their ecosystems services. Why not combine them in a market approach to reduce many environmental externalities simultaneously? In a multi-permit market program reforestation (land offsets) as part of a nutrient or carbon sequestration trading program would provide a means to reduce agrochemical discharges into streams, rivers, and groundwater. Land conversions also improve the quality and quantity of other environmental externalities such as air pollution. Collocated nonmarket ecosystem services have societal benefits that can expand the crediting system into a multi-permit trading program. At a regional scale it is possible to combine regulation of water quality, air emissions and quality, and habitat conservation and restoration into one program. This research is about the economic feasibility of a Philadelphia regional multi-permit (cap and trade) program for ecosystem services. Instead of establishing individual markets for ecosystem services, the assumption of the spatial portfolio approach is that it is based on the interdependence of ecosystem functions so that market credits encompasses a range of ecosystem services. Using an existing example the components of the approach are described in terms of scenarios of land portfolios and the calculation of expected return on investment and risk. An experiment in the Schuylkill Watershed will be described for ecosystem services such as nutrients in water and populations of bird species along with Green House Gases. The Philadelphia regional market includes the urban - nonurban economic and environmental interactions and impacts.

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems' net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Dongsheng; Wu, Shaohong; Yin, Yunhe

2013-01-01

The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change.

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems' net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dongsheng Zhao

Full Text Available The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN, a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change.

Intercomparisons of Prognostic, Diagnostic, and Inversion Modeling Approaches for Estimation of Net Ecosystem Exchange over the Pacific Northwest Region

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, D. P.; Jacobson, A. R.; Nemani, R. R.

2013-12-01

The recent development of large spatially-explicit datasets for multiple variables relevant to monitoring terrestrial carbon flux offers the opportunity to estimate the terrestrial land flux using several alternative, potentially complimentary, approaches. Here we developed and compared regional estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) over the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. using three approaches. In the prognostic modeling approach, the process-based Biome-BGC model was driven by distributed meteorological station data and was informed by Landsat-based coverages of forest stand age and disturbance regime. In the diagnostic modeling approach, the quasi-mechanistic CFLUX model estimated net ecosystem production (NEP) by upscaling eddy covariance flux tower observations. The model was driven by distributed climate data and MODIS FPAR (the fraction of incident PAR that is absorbed by the vegetation canopy). It was informed by coarse resolution (1 km) data about forest stand age. In both the prognostic and diagnostic modeling approaches, emissions estimates for biomass burning, harvested products, and river/stream evasion were added to model-based NEP to get NEE. The inversion model (CarbonTracker) relied on observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration to optimize prior surface carbon flux estimates. The Pacific Northwest is heterogeneous with respect to land cover and forest management, and repeated surveys of forest inventory plots support the presence of a strong regional carbon sink. The diagnostic model suggested a stronger carbon sink than the prognostic model, and a much larger sink that the inversion model. The introduction of Landsat data on disturbance history served to reduce uncertainty with respect to regional NEE in the diagnostic and prognostic modeling approaches. The FPAR data was particularly helpful in capturing the seasonality of the carbon flux using the diagnostic modeling approach. The inversion approach took advantage of a global

Assimilation of satellite color observations in a coupled ocean GCM-ecosystem model

Science.gov (United States)

Sarmiento, Jorge L.

1992-01-01

Monthly average coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) estimates of chlorophyll concentration were assimilated into an ocean global circulation model(GCM) containing a simple model of the pelagic ecosystem. The assimilation was performed in the simplest possible manner, to allow the assessment of whether there were major problems with the ecosystem model or with the assimilation procedure. The current ecosystem model performed well in some regions, but failed in others to assimilate chlorophyll estimates without disrupting important ecosystem properties. This experiment gave insight into those properties of the ecosystem model that must be changed to allow data assimilation to be generally successful, while raising other important issues about the assimilation procedure.

A general predictive model for estimating monthly ecosystem evapotranspiration

Science.gov (United States)

Ge Sun; Karrin Alstad; Jiquan Chen; Shiping Chen; Chelcy R. Ford; al. et.

2011-01-01

Accurately quantifying evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for modelling regional-scale ecosystem water balances. This study assembled an ET data set estimated from eddy flux and sapflow measurements for 13 ecosystems across a large climatic and management gradient from the United States, China, and Australia. Our objectives were to determine the relationships among...

Prototyping an online wetland ecosystem services model using open model sharing standards

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, M.; Liu, S.; Euliss, N.H.; Young, Caitlin; Mushet, D.M.

2011-01-01

Great interest currently exists for developing ecosystem models to forecast how ecosystem services may change under alternative land use and climate futures. Ecosystem services are diverse and include supporting services or functions (e.g., primary production, nutrient cycling), provisioning services (e.g., wildlife, groundwater), regulating services (e.g., water purification, floodwater retention), and even cultural services (e.g., ecotourism, cultural heritage). Hence, the knowledge base necessary to quantify ecosystem services is broad and derived from many diverse scientific disciplines. Building the required interdisciplinary models is especially challenging as modelers from different locations and times may develop the disciplinary models needed for ecosystem simulations, and these models must be identified and made accessible to the interdisciplinary simulation. Additional difficulties include inconsistent data structures, formats, and metadata required by geospatial models as well as limitations on computing, storage, and connectivity. Traditional standalone and closed network systems cannot fully support sharing and integrating interdisciplinary geospatial models from variant sources. To address this need, we developed an approach to openly share and access geospatial computational models using distributed Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and open geospatial standards. We included a means to share computational models compliant with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Processing Services (WPS) standard to ensure modelers have an efficient and simplified means to publish new models. To demonstrate our approach, we developed five disciplinary models that can be integrated and shared to simulate a few of the ecosystem services (e.g., water storage, waterfowl breeding) that are provided by wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America.

Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming

Science.gov (United States)

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Thomas R. Crow

1999-01-01

No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking an ecosystem process model {LINKAGES) with a spatial landscape model (LANDIS) to examine forest species responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was...

Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

Science.gov (United States)

Obeysekera, J.; Kuebler, L.; Ahmed, S.; Chang, M.-L.; Engel, V.; Langevin, C.; Swain, E.; Wan, Y.

2011-01-01

Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Generation of multi annual land use and crop rotation data for regional agro-ecosystem modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Waldhoff, G.; Lussem, U.; Sulis, M.; Bareth, G.

2017-12-01

For agro-ecosystem modeling on a regional scale with systems like the Community Land Model (CLM), detailed crop type and crop rotation information on the parcel-level is of key importance. Only with this, accurate assessments of the fluxes associated with the succession of crops and their management are possible. However, sophisticated agro-ecosystem modeling for large regions is only feasible at grid resolutions, which are much coarser than the spatial resolution of modern land use maps (usually ca. 30 m). As a result, much of the original information content of the maps has to be dismissed during resampling. Here we present our mapping approach for the Rur catchment (located in the west of Germany), which was developed to address these demands and issues. We integrated remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) methods to classify multi temporal images of (e.g.) Landsat, RapidEye and Sentinel-2 to generate annual crop maps for the years 2008-2017 at 15 m spatial resolution (accuracy always ca. 90 %). A key aspect of our method is the consideration of crop phenology for the data selection and the analysis. In a GIS, the annul crop maps were integrated to a crop sequence dataset from which the major crop rotations were derived (based on the 10-years). To retain the multi annual crop succession and crop area information at coarser grid resolutions, cell-based land use fractions, including other land use classes were calculated for each year and for various target cell sizes (1-32 arc seconds). The resulting datasets contain the contribution (in percent) of every land use class to each cell. Our results show that parcels with the major crop types can be differentiated with a high accuracy and on an annual basis. The analysis of the crop sequence data revealed a very large number of different crop rotations, but only relatively few crop rotations cover larger areas. This strong diversity emphasizes the importance of information on crop rotations to reduce

A Size-based Ecosystem Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ravn-Jonsen, Lars

 Ecosystem Management requires models that can link the ecosystem level to the operation level. This link can be created by an ecosystem production model. Because the function of the individual fish in the marine ecosystem, seen in trophic context, is closely related to its size, the model groups...... fish according to size. The model summarises individual predation events into ecosystem level properties, and thereby uses the law of conversation of mass as a framework. This paper provides the background, the conceptual model, basic assumptions, integration of fishing activities, mathematical...... the predator--prey interaction, (ii) mass balance in the predator--prey allocation, and (iii) mortality and somatic growth as a consequence of the predator--prey allocation. By incorporating additional assumptions, the model can be extended to other dimensions of the ecosystem, for example, space or species...

Natural and human impacts on ecosystem services in Guanzhong - Tianshui economic region of China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jing; Zhou, Z X

2016-04-01

Due to the accelerated growth of society, the gaps between the capacity of ecosystems to provide services and human needs are steadily widening. Natural, semi-natural, or managed ecosystems had been able to provide ecosystem services to meet the needs of social development. Four agricultural ecosystem services (net primary production (NPP), carbon sequestration and oxygen production (CSOP), water interception, soil conservation and agriculture production) were quantified in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. Estimates of ecosystem services were obtained from the analysis of satellite imagery and the use of well-known models. Based on the ecological services in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region, this study mainly analysed the driving mechanism of the changes from the two aspects of natural drivers and human drivers. Natural drivers (climate, soil, elevation, land cover) had incentive to the ecological services. Human activity was quantified by an integrated human activity index (HAI) based on population density, farmland ratio, and the influence of road networks and residential areas. We found relationships between ecosystem services, human activities and many natural factors, however these varied according to the service studied. Human activities were mostly negatively related to each ecosystem services, while population and residential land ware positively related to agricultural production. Land use change had made a contribution to ecosystem services. Based on the selected ecosystem services and HAI, we provided sustainable ecosystem management suggestions.

An ecosystem model for tropical forest disturbance and selective logging

Science.gov (United States)

Maoyi Huang; Gregory P. Asner; Michael Keller; Joseph A. Berry

2008-01-01

[1] A new three-dimensional version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model (CASA-3D) was developed to simulate regional carbon cycling in tropical forest ecosystems after disturbances such as logging. CASA-3D has the following new features: (1) an alternative approach for calculating absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) using new...

Adventures in holistic ecosystem modelling: the cumberland basin ecosystem model

Science.gov (United States)

Gordon, D. C.; Keizer, P. D.; Daborn, G. R.; Schwinghamer, P.; Silvert, W. L.

A holistic ecosystem model has been developed for the Cumberland Basin, a turbid macrotidal estuary at the head of Canada's Bay of Fundy. The model was constructed as a group exercise involving several dozen scientists. Philosophy of approach and methods were patterned after the BOEDE Ems-Dollard modelling project. The model is one-dimensional, has 3 compartments and 3 boundaries, and is composed of 3 separate submodels (physical, pelagic and benthic). The 28 biological state variables cover the complete estuarine ecosystem and represent broad functional groups of organisms based on trophic relationships. Although still under development and not yet validated, the model has been verified and has reached the stage where most state variables provide reasonable output. The modelling process has stimulated interdisciplinary discussion, identified important data gaps and produced a quantitative tool which can be used to examine ecological hypotheses and determine critical environmental processes. As a result, Canadian scientists have a much better understanding of the Cumberland Basin ecosystem and are better able to provide competent advice on environmental management.

Regional zooplankton dispersal provides spatial insurance for ecosystem function.

Science.gov (United States)

Symons, Celia C; Arnott, Shelley E

2013-05-01

Changing environmental conditions are affecting diversity and ecosystem function globally. Theory suggests that dispersal from a regional species pool may buffer against changes in local community diversity and ecosystem function after a disturbance through the establishment of functionally redundant tolerant species. The spatial insurance provided by dispersal may decrease through time after environmental change as the local community monopolizes resources and reduces community invasibility. To test for evidence of the spatial insurance hypothesis and to determine the role dispersal timing plays in this response we conducted a field experiment using crustacean zooplankton communities in a subarctic region that is expected to be highly impacted by climate change - Churchill, Canada. Three experiments were conducted where nutrients, salt, and dispersal were manipulated. The three experiments differed in time-since-disturbance that the dispersers were added. We found that coarse measures of diversity (i.e. species richness, evenness, and Shannon-Weiner diversity) were generally resistant to large magnitude disturbances, and that dispersal had the most impact on diversity when dispersers were added shortly after disturbance. Ecosystem functioning (chl-a) was degraded in disturbed communities, but dispersal recovered ecosystem function to undisturbed levels. This spatial insurance for ecosystem function was mediated through changes in community composition and the relative abundance of functional groups. Results suggest that regional diversity and habitat connectivity will be important in the future to maintain ecosystem function by introducing functionally redundant species to promote compensatory dynamics. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Warszawski, Lila; Ostberg, Sebastian; Frieler, Katja; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Buechner, Matthias; Piontek, Franziska; Friend, Andrew; Keribin, Rozenn; Rademacher, Tim Tito; Beerling, David; Lomas, Mark; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Kahana, Ron; Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Kleidon, Axel; Pavlick, Ryan

2013-01-01

Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5–19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980–2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest. (letter)

Intelligent spatial ecosystem modeling using parallel processors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maxwell, T.; Costanza, R.

1993-01-01

Spatial modeling of ecosystems is essential if one's modeling goals include developing a relatively realistic description of past behavior and predictions of the impacts of alternative management policies on future ecosystem behavior. Development of these models has been limited in the past by the large amount of input data required and the difficulty of even large mainframe serial computers in dealing with large spatial arrays. These two limitations have begun to erode with the increasing availability of remote sensing data and GIS systems to manipulate it, and the development of parallel computer systems which allow computation of large, complex, spatial arrays. Although many forms of dynamic spatial modeling are highly amenable to parallel processing, the primary focus in this project is on process-based landscape models. These models simulate spatial structure by first compartmentalizing the landscape into some geometric design and then describing flows within compartments and spatial processes between compartments according to location-specific algorithms. The authors are currently building and running parallel spatial models at the regional scale for the Patuxent River region in Maryland, the Everglades in Florida, and Barataria Basin in Louisiana. The authors are also planning a project to construct a series of spatially explicit linked ecological and economic simulation models aimed at assessing the long-term potential impacts of global climate change

The PEcAn Project: Accessible Tools for On-demand Ecosystem Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Cowdery, E.; Kooper, R.; LeBauer, D.; Desai, A. R.; Mantooth, J.; Dietze, M.

2014-12-01

Ecosystem models play a critical role in understanding the terrestrial biosphere and forecasting changes in the carbon cycle, however current forecasts have considerable uncertainty. The amount of data being collected and produced is increasing on daily basis as we enter the "big data" era, but only a fraction of this data is being used to constrain models. Until we can improve the problems of model accessibility and model-data communication, none of these resources can be used to their full potential. The Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) is an ecoinformatics toolbox and a set of workflows that wrap around an ecosystem model and manage the flow of information in and out of regional-scale TBMs. Here we present new modules developed in PEcAn to manage the processing of meteorological data, one of the primary driver dependencies for ecosystem models. The module downloads, reads, extracts, and converts meteorological observations to Unidata Climate Forecast (CF) NetCDF community standard, a convention used for most climate forecast and weather models. The module also automates the conversion from NetCDF to model specific formats, including basic merging, gap-filling, and downscaling procedures. PEcAn currently supports tower-based micrometeorological observations at Ameriflux and FluxNET sites, site-level CSV-formatted data, and regional and global reanalysis products such as the North American Regional Reanalysis and CRU-NCEP. The workflow is easily extensible to additional products and processing algorithms.These meteorological workflows have been coupled with the PEcAn web interface and now allow anyone to run multiple ecosystem models for any location on the Earth by simply clicking on an intuitive Google-map based interface. This will allow users to more readily compare models to observations at those sites, leading to better calibration and validation. Current work is extending these workflows to also process field, remotely-sensed, and historical

Technology Entrepreneurial Ecosystems and Entrepreneurship in the West Region of Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roja Alexandru

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Technical progress and entrepreneurship have become drivers of economic and social stability and progress. To develop their new ventures, to generate value, and to validate and implement business ideas, entrepreneurs need a competitive business environment, we name it technology entrepreneurial ecosystem. Entrepreneurial new ventures competitiveness depends on the entrepreneurial ecosystem structure and components. Our research presents the main levels of information technology industry linked with technology entrepreneurial ecosystems components. In the second part of our research we present the entrepreneurs perception about information technology entrepreneurial ecosystem in the west region of Romania. Our objective was to find out the entrepreneurs point of view about opportunities and influences that they perceive in the regional entrepreneurial ecosystem

Puget Sound ocean acidification model outputs - Modeling the impacts of ocean acidification on ecosystems and populations

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NWFSC OA team will model the effects of ocean acidification on regional marine species and ecosystems using food web models, life-cycle models, and bioenvelope...

Managing SMEs’ Collaboration Across Organizational Boundaries Within a Regional Business Ecosystem

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Radziwon, Agnieszka; Bogers, Marcel

2018-01-01

’ perspective on managing and organizing inter-company collaboration within a regional business ecosystem. We explore how purposefully managed mutual knowledge flows across organizational boundaries applied by SMEs contribute to the development of the ecosystem they are immersed in. Our key findings include...... insights into the advantages offered by being embedded within regional ecosystem boundaries, such as low transaction costs and reduced risks of opportunistic behaviors, environmental opportunities for external knowledge sourcing or increase of the sphere of influence. We also highlight accompanied...

Development and application of an interactive climate-ecosystem model system

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

CHEN Ming; D. Pollard

2003-01-01

A regional climate-ecosystem model system is developed in this study. It overcomes the weakness in traditional one-way coupling models and enables detailed description of interactive process between climate and natural ecosystem. It is applied to interaction study between monsoon climate and ecosystem in East Asia, with emphasis on future climate and ecosystem change scenario forced by doubled CO2. The climate tends to be warmer and wetter under doubled CO2 in Jianghuai and the Yangzi River valley, but it becomes warmer and drier in inland areas of northern and northwestern China. The largest changes and feedbacks between vegetation and climate occur in northern China. Northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degradation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic change. The strongest vegetation response to climate change occurs in northern China and the weakest in southern China. Vegetation feedbacks intensify warming and reduce drying due to increased CO2 during summer in northern China. Generally, vegetation-climate interactions are much stronger in northern China than in southern China.

Ecosystem Services and Border Regions. Case Study from Czech – Polish Borderland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcin Spyra

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Land-use management and planning of cross-border regions is a complex problem. Different legislatures, development visions and interests on both sides of the border make it even more complicated. Introducing ecosystem services concept into land-use planning and management at cross-border regions is a challenge.  However not much is said about this issue in literature.This paper aims to present result of the study concerning to ecosystem services concept in the context of cross-border part of Pradziad Euroregion. The studyed area is situated within Czech – Polish borderland. First part of the research concerns to land-cover analyze of the region. The second one to Czech and Polish land-use strategies, which are binding at NUTS 4 and 5 level in the studyed area.Resoults of the research indicates asymmetry of the cross-border landscape of the analyzed region. The asymmetry is indicated by different types, biodiversities and areas of ecosystems identified on both sides of the border. It is also identified by differences in land-use strategies concerning to the region.It is discussed to what extend ecosystem services concept can be implemented in planning legislature of the cross-border region.

77 FR 12567 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Pacific Islands Region Coral Reef Ecosystems...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-01

... Collection; Comment Request; Pacific Islands Region Coral Reef Ecosystems Logbook and Reporting AGENCY... with, or any U.S. citizen issued with, a Special Coral Reef Ecosystem Fishing Permit (authorized under the Fishery Management Plan for Coral Reef Ecosystems of the Western Pacific Region), to complete...

Ecosystem Services Mapping Uncertainty Assessment: A Case Study in the Fitzroy Basin Mining Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenyu Wang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Ecosystem services mapping is becoming increasingly popular through the use of various readily available mapping tools, however, uncertainties in assessment outputs are commonly ignored. Uncertainties from different sources have the potential to lower the accuracy of mapping outputs and reduce their reliability for decision-making. Using a case study in an Australian mining region, this paper assessed the impact of uncertainties on the modelling of the hydrological ecosystem service, water provision. Three types of uncertainty were modelled using multiple uncertainty scenarios: (1 spatial data sources; (2 modelling scales (temporal and spatial and (3 parameterization and model selection. We found that the mapping scales can induce significant changes to the spatial pattern of outputs and annual totals of water provision. In addition, differences in parameterization using differing sources from the literature also led to obvious differences in base flow. However, the impact of each uncertainty associated with differences in spatial data sources were not so great. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of uncertainty assessment and highlight that any conclusions drawn from ecosystem services mapping, such as the impacts of mining, are likely to also be a property of the uncertainty in ecosystem services mapping methods.

Ecosystem services provided by a complex coastal region: challenges of classification and mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Sousa, Lisa P.; Sousa, Ana I.; Alves, Fátima L.; Lillebø, Ana I.

2016-03-01

A variety of ecosystem services classification systems and mapping approaches are available in the scientific and technical literature, which needs to be selected and adapted when applied to complex territories (e.g. in the interface between water and land, estuary and sea). This paper provides a framework for addressing ecosystem services in complex coastal regions. The roadmap comprises the definition of the exact geographic boundaries of the study area; the use of CICES (Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services) for ecosystem services identification and classification; and the definition of qualitative indicators that will serve as basis to map the ecosystem services. Due to its complexity, the Ria de Aveiro coastal region was selected as case study, presenting an opportunity to explore the application of such approaches at a regional scale. The main challenges of implementing the proposed roadmap, together with its advantages are discussed in this research. The results highlight the importance of considering both the connectivity of natural systems and the complexity of the governance framework; the flexibility and robustness, but also the challenges when applying CICES at regional scale; and the challenges regarding ecosystem services mapping.

Ecosystem services provided by a complex coastal region: challenges of classification and mapping.

Science.gov (United States)

Sousa, Lisa P; Sousa, Ana I; Alves, Fátima L; Lillebø, Ana I

2016-03-11

A variety of ecosystem services classification systems and mapping approaches are available in the scientific and technical literature, which needs to be selected and adapted when applied to complex territories (e.g. in the interface between water and land, estuary and sea). This paper provides a framework for addressing ecosystem services in complex coastal regions. The roadmap comprises the definition of the exact geographic boundaries of the study area; the use of CICES (Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services) for ecosystem services identification and classification; and the definition of qualitative indicators that will serve as basis to map the ecosystem services. Due to its complexity, the Ria de Aveiro coastal region was selected as case study, presenting an opportunity to explore the application of such approaches at a regional scale. The main challenges of implementing the proposed roadmap, together with its advantages are discussed in this research. The results highlight the importance of considering both the connectivity of natural systems and the complexity of the governance framework; the flexibility and robustness, but also the challenges when applying CICES at regional scale; and the challenges regarding ecosystem services mapping.

Regional Approach for Linking Ecosystem Services and Livelihood Strategies Under Climate Change of Pastoral Communities in the Mongolian Steppe Ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Ojima, D. S.; Galvin, K.; Togtohyn, C.

2012-12-01

Dramatic changes due to climate and land use dynamics in the Mongolian Plateau affecting ecosystem services and agro-pastoral systems in Mongolia. Recently, market forces and development strategies are affecting land and water resources of the pastoral communities which are being further stressed due to climatic changes. Evaluation of pastoral systems, where humans depend on livestock and grassland ecosystem services, have demonstrated the vulnerability of the social-ecological system to climate change. Current social-ecological changes in ecosystem services are affecting land productivity and carrying capacity, land-atmosphere interactions, water resources, and livelihood strategies. The general trend involves greater intensification of resource exploitation at the expense of traditional patterns of extensive range utilization. Thus we expect climate-land use-land cover relationships to be crucially modified by the social-economic forces. The analysis incorporates information about the social-economic transitions taking place in the region which affect land-use, food security, and ecosystem dynamics. The region of study extends from the Mongolian plateau in Mongolia. Our research indicate that sustainability of pastoral systems in the region needs to integrate the impact of climate change on ecosystem services with socio-economic changes shaping the livelihood strategies of pastoral systems in the region. Adaptation strategies which incorporate integrated analysis of landscape management and livelihood strategies provides a framework which links ecosystem services to critical resource assets. Analysis of the available livelihood assets provides insights to the adaptive capacity of various agents in a region or in a community. Sustainable development pathways which enable the development of these adaptive capacity elements will lead to more effective adaptive management strategies for pastoral land use and herder's living standards. Pastoralists will have the

Exploring the Red Sea seasonal ecosystem functioning using a three-dimensional biophysical model

KAUST Repository

Triantafyllou, G.; Yao, F.; Petihakis, G.; Tsiaras, K. P.; Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2014-01-01

The Red Sea exhibits complex hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamics, which vary both in time and space. These dynamics have been explored through the development and application of a 3-D ecosystem model. The simulation system comprises two off-line coupled submodels: the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), both adapted for the Red Sea. The results from an annual simulation under climatological forcing are presented. Simulation results are in good agreement with satellite and in situ data illustrating the role of the physical processes in determining the evolution and variability of the Red Sea ecosystem. The model was able to reproduce the main features of the Red Sea ecosystem functioning, including the exchange with the Gulf of Aden, which is a major driving mechanism for the whole Red Sea ecosystem and the winter overturning taking place in the north. Some model limitations, mainly related to the dynamics of the extended reef system located in the southern part of the Red Sea, which is not currently represented in the model, still need to be addressed.

Exploring the Red Sea seasonal ecosystem functioning using a three-dimensional biophysical model

KAUST Repository

Triantafyllou, G.

2014-03-01

The Red Sea exhibits complex hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamics, which vary both in time and space. These dynamics have been explored through the development and application of a 3-D ecosystem model. The simulation system comprises two off-line coupled submodels: the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), both adapted for the Red Sea. The results from an annual simulation under climatological forcing are presented. Simulation results are in good agreement with satellite and in situ data illustrating the role of the physical processes in determining the evolution and variability of the Red Sea ecosystem. The model was able to reproduce the main features of the Red Sea ecosystem functioning, including the exchange with the Gulf of Aden, which is a major driving mechanism for the whole Red Sea ecosystem and the winter overturning taking place in the north. Some model limitations, mainly related to the dynamics of the extended reef system located in the southern part of the Red Sea, which is not currently represented in the model, still need to be addressed.

Regional Approach for Managing for Resilience Linking Ecosystem Services and Livelihood Strategies for Agro-Pastoral Communities in the Mongolian Steppe Ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Ojima, D. S.; Togtohyn, C.; Qi, J.; Galvin, K.

2011-12-01

Dramatic changes due to climate and land use dynamics in the Mongolian Plateau are affecting ecosystem services and agro-pastoral livelihoods in Mongolia and China. Recently, evaluation of pastoral systems, where humans depend on livestock and grassland ecosystem services, have demonstrated the vulnerability of the social-ecological system to climate change. Current social-ecological changes in ecosystem services are affecting land productivity and carrying capacity, land-atmosphere interactions, water resources, and livelihood strategies. Regional dust events, changes in hydrological cycle, and land use changes contribute to changing interactions between ecosystem and landscape processes which then affect social-ecological systems. The general trend involves greater intensification of resource exploitation at the expense of traditional patterns of extensive range utilization. Thus we expect climate-land use-land cover relationships to be crucially modified by the socio-economic forces. The analysis incorporates information of the socio-economic transitions taking place in the region which affect land-use, food security, and ecosystem dynamics. The region of study extends from the Mongolian plateau in Mongolia and China to the fertile northeast China plain. Sustainability of agro-pastoral systems in the region needs to integrate the impact of climate change on ecosystem services with socio-economic changes shaping the livelihood strategies of pastoral systems in the region. Adaptation strategies which incorporate landscape management provides a potential framework to link ecosystem services across space and time more effectively to meet the needs of agro-pastoral land use, herd quality, and herder's living standards. Under appropriate adaptation strategies agro-pastoralists will have the opportunity to utilize seasonal resources and enhance their ability to process and manufacture products from the available ecosystem services in these dynamic social

Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for ecosystem carbon cycle studies

Science.gov (United States)

Y. He; Q. Zhuang; A.D. McGuire; Y. Liu; M. Chen

2013-01-01

Model-data fusion is a process in which field observations are used to constrain model parameters. How observations are used to constrain parameters has a direct impact on the carbon cycle dynamics simulated by ecosystem models. In this study, we present an evaluation of several options for the use of observations inmodeling regional carbon dynamics and explore the...

Modelling the ecological vulnerability to forest fires in mediterranean ecosystems using geographic information technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Duguy, Beatriz; Alloza, José Antonio; Baeza, M Jaime; De la Riva, Juan; Echeverría, Maite; Ibarra, Paloma; Llovet, Juan; Cabello, Fernando Pérez; Rovira, Pere; Vallejo, Ramon V

2012-12-01

Forest fires represent a major driver of change at the ecosystem and landscape levels in the Mediterranean region. Environmental features and vegetation are key factors to estimate the ecological vulnerability to fire; defined as the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of fire (provided a fire occurs). Given the predicted climatic changes for the region, it is urgent to validate spatially explicit tools for assessing this vulnerability in order to support the design of new fire prevention and restoration strategies. This work presents an innovative GIS-based modelling approach to evaluate the ecological vulnerability to fire of an ecosystem, considering its main components (soil and vegetation) and different time scales. The evaluation was structured in three stages: short-term (focussed on soil degradation risk), medium-term (focussed on changes in vegetation), and coupling of the short- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The model was implemented in two regions: Aragón (inland North-eastern Spain) and Valencia (eastern Spain). Maps of the ecological vulnerability to fire were produced at a regional scale. We partially validated the model in a study site combining two complementary approaches that focused on testing the adequacy of model's predictions in three ecosystems, all very common in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Spain: two shrublands and a pine forest. Both approaches were based on the comparison of model's predictions with values of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is considered a good proxy for green biomass. Both methods showed that the model's performance is satisfactory when applied to the three selected vegetation types.

Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

Science.gov (United States)

Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S

2016-01-01

Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable

Are more complex physiological models of forest ecosystems better choices for plot and regional predictions?

Science.gov (United States)

Wenchi Jin; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson

2016-01-01

Process-based forest ecosystem models vary from simple physiological, complex physiological, to hybrid empirical-physiological models. Previous studies indicate that complex models provide the best prediction at plot scale with a temporal extent of less than 10 years, however, it is largely untested as to whether complex models outperform the other two types of models...

Lessons learned for spatial modelling of ecosystem services in support of ecosystem accounting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schroter, M.; Remme, R.P.; Sumarga, E.; Barton, D.N.; Hein, L.G.

2015-01-01

Assessment of ecosystem services through spatial modelling plays a key role in ecosystem accounting. Spatial models for ecosystem services try to capture spatial heterogeneity with high accuracy. This endeavour, however, faces several practical constraints. In this article we analyse the trade-offs

Deciphering the components of regional net ecosystem fluxes following a bottom-up approach for the Iberian Peninsula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Carvalhais

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Quantification of ecosystem carbon pools is a fundamental requirement for estimating carbon fluxes and for addressing the dynamics and responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to environmental drivers. The initial estimates of carbon pools in terrestrial carbon cycle models often rely on the ecosystem steady state assumption, leading to initial equilibrium conditions. In this study, we investigate how trends and inter-annual variability of net ecosystem fluxes are affected by initial non-steady state conditions. Further, we examine how modeled ecosystem responses induced exclusively by the model drivers can be separated from the initial conditions. For this, the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA model is optimized at set of European eddy covariance sites, which support the parameterization of regional simulations of ecosystem fluxes for the Iberian Peninsula, between 1982 and 2006.

The presented analysis stands on a credible model performance for a set of sites, that represent generally well the plant functional types and selected descriptors of climate and phenology present in the Iberian region – except for a limited Northwestern area. The effects of initial conditions on inter-annual variability and on trends, results mostly from the recovery of pools to equilibrium conditions; which control most of the inter-annual variability (IAV and both the magnitude and sign of most of the trends. However, by removing the time series of pure model recovery from the time series of the overall fluxes, we are able to retrieve estimates of inter-annual variability and trends in net ecosystem fluxes that are quasi-independent from the initial conditions. This approach reduced the sensitivity of the net fluxes to initial conditions from 47% and 174% to −3% and 7%, for strong initial sink and source conditions, respectively.

With the aim to identify and improve understanding of the component fluxes that drive the observed trends, the

Carbon and energy fluxes in cropland ecosystems: a model-data comparison

Science.gov (United States)

Lokupitiya, E.; Denning, A. Scott; Schaefer, K.; Ricciuto, D.; Anderson, R.; Arain, M. A.; Baker, I.; Barr, A. G.; Chen, G.; Chen, J.M.; Ciais, P.; Cook, D.R.; Dietze, M.C.; El Maayar, M.; Fischer, M.; Grant, R.; Hollinger, D.; Izaurralde, C.; Jain, A.; Kucharik, C.J.; Li, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, L.; Matamala, R.; Peylin, P.; Price, D.; Running, S. W.; Sahoo, A.; Sprintsin, M.; Suyker, A.E.; Tian, H.; Tonitto, Christina; Torn, M.S.; Verbeeck, Hans; Verma, S.B.; Xue, Y.

2016-01-01

Croplands are highly productive ecosystems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, energy, and water during their short growing seasons. We evaluated and compared net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H) simulated by a suite of ecosystem models at five agricultural eddy covariance flux tower sites in the central United States as part of the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis project. Most of the models overestimated H and underestimated LE during the growing season, leading to overall higher Bowen ratios compared to the observations. Most models systematically under predicted NEE, especially at rain-fed sites. Certain crop-specific models that were developed considering the high productivity and associated physiological changes in specific crops better predicted the NEE and LE at both rain-fed and irrigated sites. Models with specific parameterization for different crops better simulated the inter-annual variability of NEE for maize-soybean rotation compared to those models with a single generic crop type. Stratification according to basic model formulation and phenological methodology did not explain significant variation in model performance across these sites and crops. The under prediction of NEE and LE and over prediction of H by most of the models suggests that models developed and parameterized for natural ecosystems cannot accurately predict the more robust physiology of highly bred and intensively managed crop ecosystems. When coupled in Earth System Models, it is likely that the excessive physiological stress simulated in many land surface component models leads to overestimation of temperature and atmospheric boundary layer depth, and underestimation of humidity and CO2 seasonal uptake over agricultural regions.

Carbon and energy fluxes in cropland ecosystems: a model-data comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lokupitiya, E.; Denning, A. S.; Schaefer, K.; Ricciuto, D.; Anderson, R.; Arain, M. A.; Baker, I.; Barr, A. G.; Chen, G.; Chen, J. M.; Ciais, P.; Cook, D. R.; Dietze, M.; El Maayar, M.; Fischer, M.; Grant, R.; Hollinger, D.; Izaurralde, C.; Jain, A.; Kucharik, C.; Li, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, L.; Matamala, R.; Peylin, P.; Price, D.; Running, S. W.; Sahoo, A.; Sprintsin, M.; Suyker, A. E.; Tian, H.; Tonitto, C.; Torn, M.; Verbeeck, Hans; Verma, S. B.; Xue, Y.

2016-06-03

Croplands are highly productive ecosystems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, energy, and water during their short growing seasons. We evaluated and compared net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H) simulated by a suite of ecosystem models at five agricultural eddy covariance flux tower sites in the central United States as part of the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis project. Most of the models overestimated H and underestimated LE during the growing season, leading to overall higher Bowen ratios compared to the observations. Most models systematically under predicted NEE, especially at rain-fed sites. Certain crop-specific models that were developed considering the high productivity and associated physiological changes in specific crops better predicted the NEE and LE at both rain-fed and irrigated sites. Models with specific parameterization for different crops better simulated the inter-annual variability of NEE for maize-soybean rotation compared to those models with a single generic crop type. Stratification according to basic model formulation and phenological methodology did not explain significant variation in model performance across these sites and crops. The under prediction of NEE and LE and over prediction of H by most of the models suggests that models developed and parameterized for natural ecosystems cannot accurately predict the more robust physiology of highly bred and intensively managed crop ecosystems. When coupled in Earth System Models, it is likely that the excessive physiological stress simulated in many land surface component models leads to overestimation of temperature and atmospheric boundary layer depth, and underestimation of humidity and CO₂ seasonal uptake over agricultural regions.

Plant functional traits and diversity in sand dune ecosystems across different biogeographic regions

Science.gov (United States)

Mahdavi, P.; Bergmeier, E.

2016-07-01

Plant species of a functional group respond similarly to environmental pressures and may be expected to act similarly on ecosystem processes and habitat properties. However, feasibility and applicability of functional groups in ecosystems across very different climatic regions have not yet been studied. In our approach we specified the functional groups in sand dune ecosystems of the Mediterranean, Hyrcanian and Irano-Turanian phytogeographic regions. We examined whether functional groups are more influenced by region or rather by habitat characteristics, and identified trait syndromes associated with common habitat types in sand dunes (mobile dunes, stabilized dunes, salt marshes, semi-wet sands, disturbed habitats). A database of 14 traits, 309 species and 314 relevés was examined and trait-species, trait-plot and species-plot matrices were built. Cluster analysis revealed similar plant functional groups in sand dune ecosystems across regions of very different species composition and climate. Specifically, our study showed that plant traits in sand dune ecosystems are grouped reflecting habitat affiliation rather than region and species pool. Environmental factors and constraints such as sand mobility, soil salinity, water availability, nutrient status and disturbance are more important for the occurrence and distribution of plant functional groups than regional belonging. Each habitat is shown to be equipped with specific functional groups and can be described by specific sets of traits. In restoration ecology the completeness of functional groups and traits in a site may serve as a guideline for maintaining or restoring the habitat.

Leveraging 35 years of Pinus taeda research in the southeastern US to constrain forest carbon cycle predictions: regional data assimilation using ecosystem experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Quinn Thomas, R.; Brooks, Evan B.; Jersild, Annika L.; Ward, Eric J.; Wynne, Randolph H.; Albaugh, Timothy J.; Dinon-Aldridge, Heather; Burkhart, Harold E.; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Fox, Thomas R.; Gonzalez-Benecke, Carlos A.; Martin, Timothy A.; Noormets, Asko; Sampson, David A.; Teskey, Robert O.

2017-07-01

Predicting how forest carbon cycling will change in response to climate change and management depends on the collective knowledge from measurements across environmental gradients, ecosystem manipulations of global change factors, and mathematical models. Formally integrating these sources of knowledge through data assimilation, or model-data fusion, allows the use of past observations to constrain model parameters and estimate prediction uncertainty. Data assimilation (DA) focused on the regional scale has the opportunity to integrate data from both environmental gradients and experimental studies to constrain model parameters. Here, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian DA approach (Data Assimilation to Predict Productivity for Ecosystems and Regions, DAPPER) that uses observations of carbon stocks, carbon fluxes, water fluxes, and vegetation dynamics from loblolly pine plantation ecosystems across the southeastern US to constrain parameters in a modified version of the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG) forest growth model. The observations included major experiments that manipulated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, water, and nutrients, along with nonexperimental surveys that spanned environmental gradients across an 8.6 × 105 km2 region. We optimized regionally representative posterior distributions for model parameters, which dependably predicted data from plots withheld from the data assimilation. While the mean bias in predictions of nutrient fertilization experiments, irrigation experiments, and CO2 enrichment experiments was low, future work needs to focus modifications to model structures that decrease the bias in predictions of drought experiments. Predictions of how growth responded to elevated CO2 strongly depended on whether ecosystem experiments were assimilated and whether the assimilated field plots in the CO2 study were allowed to have different mortality parameters than the other field plots in the region. We present

Land Use in LCA: Including Regionally Altered Precipitation to Quantify Ecosystem Damage.

Science.gov (United States)

Lathuillière, Michael J; Bulle, Cécile; Johnson, Mark S

2016-11-01

The incorporation of soil moisture regenerated by precipitation, or green water, into life cycle assessment has been of growing interest given the global importance of this resource for terrestrial ecosystems and food production. This paper proposes a new impact assessment model to relate land and water use in seasonally dry, semiarid, and arid regions where precipitation and evapotranspiration are closely coupled. We introduce the Precipitation Reduction Potential midpoint impact representing the change in downwind precipitation as a result of a land transformation and occupation activity. Then, our end-point impact model quantifies terrestrial ecosystem damage as a function of precipitation loss using a relationship between woody plant species richness, water and energy regimes. We then apply the midpoint and end-point models to the production of soybean in Southeastern Amazonia which has resulted from the expansion of cropland into tropical forest, with noted effects on local precipitation. Our proposed cause-effect chain represents a complementary approach to previous contributions which have focused on water consumption impacts and/or have represented evapotranspiration as a loss to the water cycle.

Trade-Off and Synergy among Ecosystem Services in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China.

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Keyu; Li, Jing; Yang, Xiaonan

2015-11-03

Natural ecosystems provide society with important goods and services. With rapidly increasing populations and excessive utilization of natural resources, humans have been enhancing the production of some services at the expense of others. Although the need for certain trade-offs between conservation and development is urgent, having only a small number of efficient methods to assess such trade-offs has impeded progress. This study focuses on the evaluation of ecosystem services under different land use schemes. It reveals the spatial and temporal distributions of and changes in ecosystem services. Based on a correlation rate model and distribution mapping, the trade-offs and synergies of these ecosystem services can be found. Here, we also describe a new simple approach to quantify the relationships of every trade-off and synergy. The results show that all ecosystem services possess trade-offs and synergies in the study area. The trend of improving carbon sequestration and water interception indicate that these key ecosystem services have the strongest synergy. And the decrease in regional agricultural production and other services, except water yield, may be considered as trade-offs. The synergy between water yield and agricultural production was the most significant, while the trade-off between water interception and carbon sequestration was the most apparent, according to our interaction quantification model. The results of this study have implications for planning and monitoring the future management of natural capital and ecosystem services, and can be integrated into land use decision-making.

Trade-Off and Synergy among Ecosystem Services in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keyu Qin

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Natural ecosystems provide society with important goods and services. With rapidly increasing populations and excessive utilization of natural resources, humans have been enhancing the production of some services at the expense of others. Although the need for certain trade-offs between conservation and development is urgent, having only a small number of efficient methods to assess such trade-offs has impeded progress. This study focuses on the evaluation of ecosystem services under different land use schemes. It reveals the spatial and temporal distributions of and changes in ecosystem services. Based on a correlation rate model and distribution mapping, the trade-offs and synergies of these ecosystem services can be found. Here, we also describe a new simple approach to quantify the relationships of every trade-off and synergy. The results show that all ecosystem services possess trade-offs and synergies in the study area. The trend of improving carbon sequestration and water interception indicate that these key ecosystem services have the strongest synergy. And the decrease in regional agricultural production and other services, except water yield, may be considered as trade-offs. The synergy between water yield and agricultural production was the most significant, while the trade-off between water interception and carbon sequestration was the most apparent, according to our interaction quantification model. The results of this study have implications for planning and monitoring the future management of natural capital and ecosystem services, and can be integrated into land use decision-making.

Biomass burning losses of carbon estimated from ecosystem modeling and satellite data analysis for the Brazilian Amazon region

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, Christopher; Brooks Genovese, Vanessa; Klooster, Steven; Bobo, Matthew; Torregrosa, Alicia

To produce a new daily record of gross carbon emissions from biomass burning events and post-burning decomposition fluxes in the states of the Brazilian Legal Amazon (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE), 1991. Anuario Estatistico do Brasil, Vol. 51. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil pp. 1-1024). We have used vegetation greenness estimates from satellite images as inputs to a terrestrial ecosystem production model. This carbon allocation model generates new estimates of regional aboveground vegetation biomass at 8-km resolution. The modeled biomass product is then combined for the first time with fire pixel counts from the advanced very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) to overlay regional burning activities in the Amazon. Results from our analysis indicate that carbon emission estimates from annual region-wide sources of deforestation and biomass burning in the early 1990s are apparently three to five times higher than reported in previous studies for the Brazilian Legal Amazon (Houghton et al., 2000. Nature 403, 301-304; Fearnside, 1997. Climatic Change 35, 321-360), i.e., studies which implied that the Legal Amazon region tends toward a net-zero annual source of terrestrial carbon. In contrast, our analysis implies that the total source fluxes over the entire Legal Amazon region range from 0.2 to 1.2 Pg C yr -1, depending strongly on annual rainfall patterns. The reasons for our higher burning emission estimates are (1) use of combustion fractions typically measured during Amazon forest burning events for computing carbon losses, (2) more detailed geographic distribution of vegetation biomass and daily fire activity for the region, and (3) inclusion of fire effects in extensive areas of the Legal Amazon covered by open woodland, secondary forests, savanna, and pasture vegetation. The total area of rainforest estimated annually to be deforested did not differ substantially among the previous analyses cited and our own.

Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael

2017-04-01

Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Identifying hotspots and management of critical ecosystem services in rapidly urbanizing Yangtze River Delta Region, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Wenbo; Gibbs, David; Zhang, Lang; Ferrier, Graham; Cai, Yongli

2017-04-15

Rapid urbanization has altered many ecosystems, causing a decline in many ecosystem services, generating serious ecological crisis. To cope with these challenges, we presented a comprehensive framework comprising five core steps for identifying and managing hotspots of critical ecosystem services in a rapid urbanizing region. This framework was applied in the case study of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) Region. The study showed that there was large spatial heterogeneity in the hotspots of ecosystem services in the region, hotspots of supporting services and regulating services aggregately distributing in the southwest mountainous areas while hotspots of provisioning services mainly in the northeast plain, and hotspots of cultural services widespread in the waterbodies and southwest mountainous areas. The regionalization of the critical ecosystem services was made through the hotspot analysis. This study provided valuable information for environmental planning and management in a rapid urbanizing region and helped improve China's ecological redlines policy at regional scale. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parallel Computing for Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Dali; Post, Wilfred M.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Berry, Michael

2011-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems are a primary component of research on global environmental change. Observational and modeling research on terrestrial ecosystems at the global scale, however, has lagged behind their counterparts for oceanic and atmospheric systems, largely because the unique challenges associated with the tremendous diversity and complexity of terrestrial ecosystems. There are 8 major types of terrestrial ecosystem: tropical rain forest, savannas, deserts, temperate grassland, deciduous forest, coniferous forest, tundra, and chaparral. The carbon cycle is an important mechanism in the coupling of terrestrial ecosystems with climate through biological fluxes of CO 2 . The influence of terrestrial ecosystems on atmospheric CO 2 can be modeled via several means at different timescales. Important processes include plant dynamics, change in land use, as well as ecosystem biogeography. Over the past several decades, many terrestrial ecosystem models (see the 'Model developments' section) have been developed to understand the interactions between terrestrial carbon storage and CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere, as well as the consequences of these interactions. Early TECMs generally adapted simple box-flow exchange models, in which photosynthetic CO 2 uptake and respiratory CO 2 release are simulated in an empirical manner with a small number of vegetation and soil carbon pools. Demands on kinds and amount of information required from global TECMs have grown. Recently, along with the rapid development of parallel computing, spatially explicit TECMs with detailed process based representations of carbon dynamics become attractive, because those models can readily incorporate a variety of additional ecosystem processes (such as dispersal, establishment, growth, mortality etc.) and environmental factors (such as landscape position, pest populations, disturbances, resource manipulations, etc.), and provide information to frame policy options for climate change

The Role of Culture in Entrepreneurial Ecosystems: An Investigation for European Regions

OpenAIRE

Bosma, N.S.; Holvoet, Tine

2015-01-01

Promotion of new entrepreneurial activity has been increasingly visible in many economies across the globe and is currently being shaped by an emerging literature on entrepreneurial ecosystems (see e.g. Stam 2015). In this paper we argue that within the regional entrepreneurship ecosystems approaches, entrepreneurship culture should be seen as one of the essential elements: we propose that regional entrepreneurship culture represents the glue that links the elements of the entrepreneurial eco...

A community-based framework for aquatic ecosystem models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trolle, Didde; Hamilton, D. P.; Hipsey, M. R.

2012-01-01

Here, we communicate a point of departure in the development of aquatic ecosystem models, namely a new community-based framework, which supports an enhanced and transparent union between the collective expertise that exists in the communities of traditional ecologists and model developers. Through...... a literature survey, we document the growing importance of numerical aquatic ecosystem models while also noting the difficulties, up until now, of the aquatic scientific community to make significant advances in these models during the past two decades. Through a common forum for aquatic ecosystem modellers we...... aim to (i) advance collaboration within the aquatic ecosystem modelling community, (ii) enable increased use of models for research, policy and ecosystem-based management, (iii) facilitate a collective framework using common (standardised) code to ensure that model development is incremental, (iv...

Ecosystem assessment methods for cumulative effects at the regional scale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunsaker, C.T.

1989-01-01

Environmental issues such as nonpoint-source pollution, acid rain, reduced biodiversity, land use change, and climate change have widespread ecological impacts and require an integrated assessment approach. Since 1978, the implementing regulations for the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) have required assessment of potential cumulative environmental impacts. Current environmental issues have encouraged ecologists to improve their understanding of ecosystem process and function at several spatial scales. However, management activities usually occur at the local scale, and there is little consideration of the potential impacts to the environmental quality of a region. This paper proposes that regional ecological risk assessment provides a useful approach for assisting scientists in accomplishing the task of assessing cumulative impacts. Critical issues such as spatial heterogeneity, boundary definition, and data aggregation are discussed. Examples from an assessment of acidic deposition effects on fish in Adirondack lakes illustrate the importance of integrated data bases, associated modeling efforts, and boundary definition at the regional scale

Characteristics of organic soil in black spruce forests: Implications for the application of land surface and ecosystem models in cold regions

Science.gov (United States)

Yi, S.; Manies, K.; Harden, J.; McGuire, A.D.

2009-01-01

Soil organic layers (OL) play an important role in landatmosphere exchanges of water, energy and carbon in cold environments. The proper implementation of OL in land surface and ecosystem models is important for predicting dynamic responses to climate warming. Based on the analysis of OL samples of black spruce (Picea mariana), we recommend that implementation of OL for cold regions modeling: (1) use three general organic horizon types (live, fibrous, and amorphous) to represent vertical soil heterogeneity; (2) implement dynamics of OL over the course of disturbance, as there are significant differences of OL thickness between young and mature stands; and (3) use two broad drainage classes to characterize spatial heterogeneity, as there are significant differences in OL thickness between dry and wet sites. Implementation of these suggestions into models has the potential to substantially improve how OL dynamics influence variability in surface temperature and soil moisture in cold regions. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophys.ical Union.

The Role of Culture in Entrepreneurial Ecosystems: An Investigation for European Regions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosma, N.S.; Holvoet, Tine

2015-01-01

Promotion of new entrepreneurial activity has been increasingly visible in many economies across the globe and is currently being shaped by an emerging literature on entrepreneurial ecosystems (see e.g. Stam 2015). In this paper we argue that within the regional entrepreneurship ecosystems

Identification of ecosystem parameters by SDE-modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for ecosystem modelling have attracted increasing attention during recent years. The modelling has mostly been through simulation experiments in order to analyse how system noise propagates through the ordinary differential equation formulation of ecosystem...... models. Estimation of parameters in SDEs is, however, possible by combining Kalman filter techniques and likelihood estimation. By modelling parameters as random walks it is possible to identify linear as well as non-linear interactions between ecosystem components. By formulating a simple linear SDE...

Assessment of Urban Ecosystem Health Based on Entropy Weight Extension Decision Model in Urban Agglomeration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qian Yang

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Urban ecosystem health evaluation can assist in sustainable ecological management at a regional level. This study examined urban agglomeration ecosystem health in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River with entropy weight and extension theories. The model overcomes information omissions and subjectivity problems in the evaluation process of urban ecosystem health. Results showed that human capital and education, economic development level as well as urban infrastructure have a significant effect on the health states of urban agglomerations. The health status of the urban agglomeration’s ecosystem was not optimistic in 2013. The majority of the cities were unhealthy or verging on unhealthy, accounting for 64.52% of the total number of cities in the urban agglomeration. The regional differences of the 31 cities’ ecosystem health are significant. The cause originated from an imbalance in economic development and the policy guidance of city development. It is necessary to speed up the integration process to promote coordinated regional development. The present study will aid us in understanding and advancing the health situation of the urban ecosystem in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and will provide an efficient urban ecosystem health evaluation method that can be used in other areas.

Managing SMEs’ Collaboration Across Organizational Boundaries Within a Regional Business Ecosystem

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Radziwon, Agnieszka; Bogers, Marcel

2017-01-01

’ perspective on managing and organizing inter-company collaboration within a regional business ecosystem. We explore how purposefully managed mutual knowledge flows across organizational boundaries applied by SMEs contribute to the development of the ecosystem they are immersed in. Our key findings include...... challenges, such as low autonomy and control over the partners and indicate shared issues and responsibilities crucial for further ecosystem development. As a conclusion, we offer a set of recommendations both for managers and policymakers concerning general organizational requirements and governing...... structures....

Variations of Ecosystem Service Value in Response to Land-Use Change in the Kashgar Region, Northwest China

OpenAIRE

Aynur Mamat; Ümüt Halik; Aihemaitijiang Rouzi

2018-01-01

Increasing anthropogenic activities have significantly altered ecosystems in arid oasis regions. Estimating the impact on a wide range of ecosystem services is important for decision making and the sustainable development of these regions. This study analyzed time-series Landsat data to determine the influences of oasis land-use changes on the ecosystem services in the Kashgar region in Northwest China. The following results were found. The total value of the ecosystem services in the Kashgar...

Spatial-temporal variation of ecosystem water use efficiency in Beijing’s suburban region

Science.gov (United States)

Mi, F.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, X. C.; Yuan, S. B.; Lu, N.; Yan, N. Na

2017-08-01

Suburban ecosystem has multiple functions such as soil conservation and water regulation, which are critical for the welfare of human beings in the city. Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important indicator of ecosystem function that represents the amount of productivity per unit mass of evapotranspiration (ET). Improving WUE of suburban ecosystem is significant to climate regulation by carbon sequestration and water consumption, especially for cities with severe water shortage like Beijing, the capital of China. Based on remote sensing data, this paper examined the spatial and temporal variations in WUE in Beijing’s suburban region from 2002 to 2010. The results showed that the average annual WUE was 0.868 g C mm-1 m-2. It has large spatial variation with the minimum of 0.500 g C mm-1 m-2 in the Miyun District. During the study periods, the area with significant increasing trend of WUE was 63.2% of the total suburban region. In terms of ecosystem type, the value of WUE was following the sequence, deciduous coniferous forest (0.921g C mm-1 m-2) > mixed forest (0.887g C mm-1 m-2) > deciduous broadleaf forest (0.884 g C mm-1 m-2) > shrubland (0.860 g C mm-1 m-2) > evergreen coniferous forest (0.836 g C mm-1 m-2) > grassland (0.830 g C mm-1 m-2). As ET was similar among the ecosystems, the difference in WUE was mainly due to the discrepancy of NPP. We found that NPP significantly correlated with the diversity of ecosystem type (represented by Shannon-Wiener index). Our results suggest that ecological engineering construction, scientific ecosystem type selection, ecosystem diversity improvement and drought-resistant species cultivation are conductive to improve ecosystem WUE in Beijing’s suburban region.

Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, M.V.; Pace, M.L.; Mather, J.R.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Howarth, R.W.; Folt, C.L.; Chen, C.-Y.; Hemond, Harold F.; Flebbe, P.A.; Driscoll, C.T.

1997-01-01

Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 ??CO2 atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3-5??C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be

Nitrogen leaching from natural ecosystems under global change: a modelling study

Science.gov (United States)

Braakhekke, Maarten C.; Rebel, Karin T.; Dekker, Stefan C.; Smith, Benjamin; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Wassen, Martin J.

2017-12-01

To study global nitrogen (N) leaching from natural ecosystems under changing N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2, we performed a factorial model experiment for the period 1901-2006 with the N-enabled global terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). In eight global simulations, we used either the true transient time series of N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2 as input or kept combinations of these drivers constant at initial values. The results show that N deposition is globally the strongest driver of simulated N leaching, individually causing an increase of 88 % by 1997-2006 relative to pre-industrial conditions. Climate change led globally to a 31 % increase in N leaching, but the size and direction of change varied among global regions: leaching generally increased in regions with high soil organic carbon storage and high initial N status, and decreased in regions with a positive trend in vegetation productivity or decreasing precipitation. Rising atmospheric CO2 generally caused decreased N leaching (33 % globally), with strongest effects in regions with high productivity and N availability. All drivers combined resulted in a rise of N leaching by 73 % with strongest increases in Europe, eastern North America and South-East Asia, where N deposition rates are highest. Decreases in N leaching were predicted for the Amazon and northern India. We further found that N loss by fire regionally is a large term in the N budget, associated with lower N leaching, particularly in semi-arid biomes. Predicted global N leaching from natural lands rose from 13.6 Tg N yr-1 in 1901-1911 to 18.5 Tg N yr-1 in 1997-2006, accounting for reductions of natural land cover. Ecosystem N status (quantified as the reduction of vegetation productivity due to N limitation) shows a similar positive temporal trend but large spatial variability. Interestingly, this variability is more strongly related to vegetation type than N input

[Carbon sequestration status of forest ecosystems in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region].

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Yang; Jin, Jing-Wei; Cheng, Ji-Min; Su, Ji-Shuai; Zhu, Ren-Bin; Ma, Zheng-Rui; Liu, Wei

2014-03-01

Based on the data of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region forest resources inventory, field investigation and laboratory analysis, this paper studied the carbon sequestration status of forest ecosystems in Ningxia region, estimated the carbon density and storage of forest ecosystems, and analyzed their spatial distribution characteristics. The results showed that the biomass of each forest vegetation component was in the order of arbor layer (46.64 Mg x hm(-2)) > litterfall layer (7.34 Mg x hm(-2)) > fine root layer (6.67 Mg x hm(-2)) > shrub-grass layer (0.73 Mg x hm(-2)). Spruce (115.43 Mg x hm(-2)) and Pinus tabuliformis (94.55 Mg x hm(-2)) had higher vegetation biomasses per unit area than other tree species. Over-mature forest had the highest arbor carbon density among the forests with different ages. However, the young forest had the highest arbor carbon storage (1.90 Tg C) due to its widest planted area. Overall, the average carbon density of forest ecosystems in Ningxia region was 265.74 Mg C x hm(-2), and the carbon storage was 43.54 Tg C. Carbon density and storage of vegetation were 27.24 Mg C x hm(-2) and 4.46 Tg C, respectively. Carbon storage in the soil was 8.76 times of that in the vegetation. In the southern part of Ningxia region, the forest carbon storage was higher than in the northern part, where the low C storage was mainly related to the small forest area and young forest age structure. With the improvement of forest age structure and the further implementation of forestry ecoengineering, the forest ecosystems in Ningxia region would achieve a huge carbon sequestration potential.

Cycling indices for ecosystem models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carney, J.H.; Gardner, R.H.; Mankin, J.B.; DeAngelis, D.L.

1979-01-01

The study of ecosystems is aided by representing structural and functional groups of organisms or processes as discrete components. A complex compartment model will explicitly map pathways from one compartment to another and specify transfer rates. This quantitative description allows insight into the dynamics of flow of nutrients, toxic chemicals, radionuclides, or energy. Three new indices that calculate compartment-specific probabilities of occurrence and recycling and illustrate the problem of applying these indices to ecosystem models are presented

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam E Vorsino

Full Text Available Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75 as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1. This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

Science.gov (United States)

Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

2014-01-01

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Leveraging 35 years of Pinus taeda research in the southeastern US to constrain forest carbon cycle predictions: regional data assimilation using ecosystem experiments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Q. Thomas

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Predicting how forest carbon cycling will change in response to climate change and management depends on the collective knowledge from measurements across environmental gradients, ecosystem manipulations of global change factors, and mathematical models. Formally integrating these sources of knowledge through data assimilation, or model–data fusion, allows the use of past observations to constrain model parameters and estimate prediction uncertainty. Data assimilation (DA focused on the regional scale has the opportunity to integrate data from both environmental gradients and experimental studies to constrain model parameters. Here, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian DA approach (Data Assimilation to Predict Productivity for Ecosystems and Regions, DAPPER that uses observations of carbon stocks, carbon fluxes, water fluxes, and vegetation dynamics from loblolly pine plantation ecosystems across the southeastern US to constrain parameters in a modified version of the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG forest growth model. The observations included major experiments that manipulated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 concentration, water, and nutrients, along with nonexperimental surveys that spanned environmental gradients across an 8.6  ×  105 km2 region. We optimized regionally representative posterior distributions for model parameters, which dependably predicted data from plots withheld from the data assimilation. While the mean bias in predictions of nutrient fertilization experiments, irrigation experiments, and CO2 enrichment experiments was low, future work needs to focus modifications to model structures that decrease the bias in predictions of drought experiments. Predictions of how growth responded to elevated CO2 strongly depended on whether ecosystem experiments were assimilated and whether the assimilated field plots in the CO2 study were allowed to have different mortality parameters than the other field

Including ecosystem dynamics in risk assessment of radioactive waste in coastal regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumblad, L.; Kautsky, U.; Gilek, M.

2000-01-01

Radiation protection has mainly focused on assessing and minimising risks of negative effects on human health. Although some efforts have been made to estimate effects on non-human populations, modelling of radiation risks to other components of the ecosystem have often lead to more or less disappointing results. In this paper an ecosystem approach is suggested and exemplified with a preliminary 14 C model of a coastal Baltic ecosystem. Advantages with the proposed ecosystem approach are for example the possibility to detect important but previously neglected pathways to humans since the whole ecosystem is analysed. The results from the model indicate that a rather small share of hypothetical released 14 C would accumulate in biota due to large water exchange in the modelled area. However, modelled future scenarios imply opposite results, i.e. relatively high doses in biota, due to changes of the physical properties in the area that makes a larger accumulation possible. (author)

Model-based assessment of the potential of seasonal aquifer thermal energy storage and recovery as a groundwater ecosystem service for the Brussels-Capital Region

Science.gov (United States)

Anibas, Christian; Huysmans, Marijke

2015-04-01

transport models on several pilot sites within this region, our study aims to better quantify the potential for ATES systems in these aquifers. Covering several dozen square kilometres, the models investigate interaction processes between ATES installations and other competing groundwater usages, including groundwater abstraction. Based on the model results ecological and economical balance calculations should better define the effects of ATES systems. Aimed at experts and decision makers this research project delivers a detailed foundation for the exploitation of seasonal aquifer thermal storage in the aquifers of the Brussels-Capital Region as an ecosystem service, and should assist in establishing guidelines for planning, building and maintaining high performing ATES systems. References BONTE, M., STUYFZAND, P.J., HULSMANN, A., VAN BEELEN, P. (2011): Underground thermal energy storage: environmental risks and policy developments in the Netherlands and European Union. Ecology and Society 16 (1): 22. VITO, (2007): Studie van de geothermische en hydrothermische technieken die toepasbaar zijn in Brussel: wettelijke context, milieu-impact, goede praktijk en economisch potentieel (in Dutch); Mol, Belgium. ZUURBIER, K.G., HARTOG, N., VALSTAR, J., POST, V.E., VAN BREUKELEN, B.M., (2013): The impact of low temperature seasonal aquifer thermal energy storage (SATES) systems on chlorinated solvent contaminated groundwater: modeling of spreading and degradation. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology 147: 1-13.

Effects of climate change on ecosystem services in the Northern Rockies Region [Chapter 11

Science.gov (United States)

Travis Warziniack; Megan Lawson; S. Karen Dante-Wood

2018-01-01

In this chapter, we focus on the ecosystem services provided to people who visit, live adjacent to, or otherwise benefit from natural resources on public lands. Communities in the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USFS) Northern Region and the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA), hereafter called the Northern Rockies region, are highly dependent on ecosystem...

USGS River Ecosystem Modeling: Where Are We, How Did We Get Here, and Where Are We Going?

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, Leanne; Schrock, Robin; Waddle, Terry; Duda, Jeffrey J.; Lellis, Bill

2009-01-01

This report developed as an outcome of the USGS River Ecosystem Modeling Work Group, convened on February 11, 2008 as a preconference session to the second USGS Modeling Conference in Orange Beach, Ala. Work Group participants gained an understanding of the types of models currently being applied to river ecosystem studies within the USGS, learned how model outputs are being used by a Federal land management agency, and developed recommendations for advancing the state of the art in river ecosystem modeling within the USGS. During a break-out session, participants restated many of the recommendations developed at the first USGS Modeling Conference in 2006 and in previous USGS needs assessments. All Work Group recommendations require organization and coordination across USGS disciplines and regions, and include (1) enhancing communications, (2) increasing efficiency through better use of current human and technologic resources, and (3) providing a national infrastructure for river ecosystem modeling resources, making it easier to integrate modeling efforts. By implementing these recommendations, the USGS will benefit from enhanced multi-disciplinary, integrated models for river ecosystems that provide valuable risk assessment and decision support tools for adaptive management of natural and managed riverine ecosystems. These tools generate key information that resource managers need and can use in making decisions about river ecosystem resources.

Inter-annual variabilities in biogeophysical feedback of terrestrial ecosystem to atmosphere using a land surface model

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, C.; Hong, S.; Jeong, H. M.; Jeon, J.

2017-12-01

Biogeophysical processes of terrestrial ecosystem such as water vapor and energy flux are the key features to understand ecological feedback to atmospheric processes and thus role of terrestrial ecosystem in climate system. For example, it has been recently known that the ecological feedback through water vapor and energy flux results in regulating regional weathers and climates which is one of the fundamental functions of terrestrial ecosystem. In regional scale, water vapor flux has been known to give negative feedback to atmospheric warming, while energy flux from the surface has been known to positive feedback. In this study, we explored the inter-annual variabilities in these two biogeophysical features to see how the climate regulating functions of terrestrial ecosystem have been changed with climate change. We selected a land surface model involving vegetation dynamics that is forced by atmospheric data from NASA including precipitation, temperature, wind, surface pressure, humidity, and incoming radiations. From the land surface model, we simulated 60-year water vapor and energy fluxes from 1961 to 2010, and calculates feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystem as in radiation amount into atmosphere. Then, we analyzed the inter-annual variabilities in the feedbacks. The results showed that some mid-latitude areas showing very high variabilities in precipitation showed higher positive feedback and/or lower negative feedback. These results suggest deterioration of the biogeophyisical factor of climate regulating function over those regions.

Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A

2016-01-01

Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This

A descriptive ecosystem model - a strategy for model development during site investigations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loefgren, Anders

2003-09-01

This report describes a strategy for the development of a site descriptive model for the surface ecosystem on the potential deep repository sites. The surface ecosystem embraces many disciplines, and these have to be identified, described and integrated in order to construct a descriptive ecosystem model that describes and quantifies biotic and abiotic patterns and processes of importance for the ecosystem on the site. The descriptive model includes both present day conditions and historical information. The descriptive ecosystem model will be used to supply input data for the safety assessment and to serve as the baseline model for devising a monitoring program to detect short-term disturbances caused first by the site investigations and later by the construction of the deep repository. Furthermore, it will serve as a reference for future comparisons to determine more long-term effects or changes caused by the deep repository. The report adopts a non-site-specific approach focusing on the following aims: 1. To present and define the properties that will constitute the descriptive ecosystem model. 2. To present a methodology for determining those properties. 3. To describe and develop the framework for the descriptive ecosystem model by integrating the different properties. 4. To present vital data from other site descriptive models such as those for geology or hydrogeology that interacts with and affects the descriptive ecosystem model. The properties are described under four different sections: general physical properties of the landscape, the terrestrial system, the limnic system and the marine system. These headings are further subdivided into entities that integrate properties in relation to processes

A descriptive ecosystem model - a strategy for model development during site investigations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loefgren, Anders [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Botany; Lindborg, Tobias [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

2003-09-01

This report describes a strategy for the development of a site descriptive model for the surface ecosystem on the potential deep repository sites. The surface ecosystem embraces many disciplines, and these have to be identified, described and integrated in order to construct a descriptive ecosystem model that describes and quantifies biotic and abiotic patterns and processes of importance for the ecosystem on the site. The descriptive model includes both present day conditions and historical information. The descriptive ecosystem model will be used to supply input data for the safety assessment and to serve as the baseline model for devising a monitoring program to detect short-term disturbances caused first by the site investigations and later by the construction of the deep repository. Furthermore, it will serve as a reference for future comparisons to determine more long-term effects or changes caused by the deep repository. The report adopts a non-site-specific approach focusing on the following aims: 1. To present and define the properties that will constitute the descriptive ecosystem model. 2. To present a methodology for determining those properties. 3. To describe and develop the framework for the descriptive ecosystem model by integrating the different properties. 4. To present vital data from other site descriptive models such as those for geology or hydrogeology that interacts with and affects the descriptive ecosystem model. The properties are described under four different sections: general physical properties of the landscape, the terrestrial system, the limnic system and the marine system. These headings are further subdivided into entities that integrate properties in relation to processes.

Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

OpenAIRE

Seidl, Rupert; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Fonseca, Teresa F.; Gillet, François; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Merganičová, Katarína; Netherer, Sigrid; Arpaci, Alexander; Bontemps, Jean-Daniel; Bugmann, Harald

2011-01-01

Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems, addressing the full spectrum of disturbance modelling from single events to integrated disturbance regimes. We applied a general, process-based framework f...

The Human Appropriation of Ecosystem Service Values (HAESV) in the Sundarban Biosphere Region Using Biophysical Quantification Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Sannigrahi, S.; Paul, S. K.; Sen, S.

2017-12-01

Human appropriation, especially unusual changes in land-use and land cover, significantly affects ecosystem services and functions. Driven by the growth of the population and the economy, human demands on earth's land surface have increased dramatically in the past 50 - 100 years. The area studied was divided into six major categories; cropland, mangrove forest, sparse vegetation, built-up urban area, water bodies and sandy coast, and the land coverage was calculated for the years 1973, 1988, 2002 and 2013. The spatial explicit value of the primary regulatory and supporting ecosystem services (climate regulation, raw material production, water regulation) were quantified through the indirect market valuation approach. A light use efficiency based ecosystem model, i.e. Carnegie- Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) was employed to estimate the carbon sequestration and oxygen production services of the ecosystem. The ArcGIS matrix transform approach calculated LULC dynamics among the classes. Investigation revealed that the built-up urban area increased from 42.9 km2 in 1973 to 308 km2 in 2013 with a 6.6 km2 yr-1 expansion rate. Similarly, water bodies (especially inland water bodies increased dramatically in the north central region) increased from 3392.1 sq.km in 1973 to 5420 sq.km in 2013 at the expense of semi-natural and natural land resulting in significant changes of ecological and ecosystem services. However, the area occupied by dense mangrove forest decreased substantially during the 40 years (1973 -2013); it was recorded to cover 2294 km2 in 1973 and 1820 km2 in 2013. The results showed that the estimated regulatory and supporting ecosystem services respond quite differently to human appropriation across the regions in both the economic and ecological dimensions. While evaluating the trade-of between human appropriation and ecosystem service changes, it has been estimated that the ecosystem service value of organic matter provision services decreased from 755 US

Empirically constrained estimates of Alaskan regional Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2, 2012-2014

Science.gov (United States)

Commane, R.; Lindaas, J.; Benmergui, J. S.; Luus, K. A.; Chang, R. Y. W.; Miller, S. M.; Henderson, J.; Karion, A.; Miller, J. B.; Sweeney, C.; Miller, C. E.; Lin, J. C.; Oechel, W. C.; Zona, D.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Iwata, H.; Ueyama, M.; Harazono, Y.; Veraverbeke, S.; Randerson, J. T.; Daube, B. C.; Pittman, J. V.; Wofsy, S. C.

2015-12-01

We present data-driven estimates of the regional net ecosystem exchange of CO2 across Alaska for three years (2012-2014) derived from CARVE (Carbon in the Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment) aircraft measurements. Integrating optimized estimates of annual NEE, we find that the Alaskan region was a small sink of CO2 during 2012 and 2014, but a significant source of CO2 in 2013, even before including emissions from the large forest fire season during 2013. We investigate the drivers of this interannual variability, and the larger spring and fall emissions of CO2 in 2013. To determine the optimized fluxes, we couple the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (PWRF) model with the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model, to produce footprints of surface influence that we convolve with a remote-sensing driven model of NEE across Alaska, the Polar Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (Polar-VPRM). For each month we calculate a spatially explicit additive flux (ΔF) by minimizing the difference between the measured profiles of the aircraft CO2 data and the modeled profiles, using a framework that combines a uniform correction at regional scales and a Bayesian inversion of residuals at smaller scales. A rigorous estimate of total uncertainty (including atmospheric transport, measurement error, etc.) was made with a combination of maximum likelihood estimation and Monte Carlo error propagation. Our optimized fluxes are consistent with other measurements on multiple spatial scales, including CO2 mixing ratios from the CARVE Tower near Fairbanks and eddy covariance flux towers in both boreal and tundra ecosystems across Alaska. For times outside the aircraft observations (Dec-April) we use the un-optimized polar-VPRM, which has shown good agreement with both tall towers and eddy flux data outside the growing season. This approach allows us to robustly estimate the annual CO2 budget for Alaska and investigate the drivers of both the

Variations of Ecosystem Service Value in Response to Land-Use Change in the Kashgar Region, Northwest China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aynur Mamat

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Increasing anthropogenic activities have significantly altered ecosystems in arid oasis regions. Estimating the impact on a wide range of ecosystem services is important for decision making and the sustainable development of these regions. This study analyzed time-series Landsat data to determine the influences of oasis land-use changes on the ecosystem services in the Kashgar region in Northwest China. The following results were found. The total value of the ecosystem services in the Kashgar region were approximately $10,845.3, $11,218.6, $10,291.7, and $10,127.3 million in 1986, 1996, 2005, and 2015, respectively. The water supply, waste treatment, biodiversity protection, and recreation and cultural services were the four ecosystem services with the highest service value, contributing 77.05% of the total ecosystem services. The combined contribution rate of food production and raw material value was only about 4.02%, relatively small. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the estimated total ecosystem service value (ESV for this study area was relatively inelastic with respect to the value coefficients. The findings of this study will be crucial for maintaining the stability and sustainable development of the oasis region, where socio-economic development and the integrity of the natural ecosystem complement each other. Furthermore, the results provide a scientific basis for decision makers in land use management, and provide a reference for researchers in the Northwest China.

Regional Ecosystem-Atmosphere CO2 Exchange Via Atmospheric Budgets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davis, K J; Richardson, S J; Miles, N L

2007-03-07

Inversions of atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio measurements to determine CO2 sources and sinks are typically limited to coarse spatial and temporal resolution. This limits our ability to evaluate efforts to upscale chamber- and stand-level CO2 flux measurements to regional scales, where coherent climate and ecosystem mechanisms govern the carbon cycle. As a step towards the goal of implementing atmospheric budget or inversion methodology on a regional scale, a network of five relatively inexpensive CO2 mixing ratio measurement systems was deployed on towers in northern Wisconsin. Four systems were distributed on a circle of roughly 150-km radius, surrounding one centrally located system at the WLEF tower near Park Falls, WI. All measurements were taken at a height of 76 m AGL. The systems used single-cell infrared CO2 analyzers (Licor, model LI-820) rather than the siginificantly more costly two-cell models, and were calibrated every two hours using four samples known to within ± 0.2 ppm CO2. Tests prior to deployment in which the systems sampled the same air indicate the precision of the systems to be better than ± 0.3 ppm and the accuracy, based on the difference between the daily mean of one system and a co-located NOAA-ESRL system, is consistently better than ± 0.3 ppm. We demonstrate the utility of the network in two ways. We interpret regional CO2 differences using a Lagrangian parcel approach. The difference in the CO2 mixing ratios across the network is at least 2-3 ppm, which is large compared to the accuracy and precision of the systems. Fluxes estimated assuming Lagrangian parcel transport are of the same sign and magnitude as eddy-covariance flux measurements at the centrally-located WLEF tower. These results indicate that the network will be useful in a full inversion model. Second, we present a case study involving a frontal passage through the region. The progression of a front across the network is evident; changes as large as four ppm in one minute

North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project

Science.gov (United States)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.

2009-05-01

Available observations are localized and widely separated in both space and time, so we depend heavily on models to characterize, understand, and predict carbon fluxes at regional and global scales. The results from each model differ because they use different approaches (forward vs. inverse), modeling strategies (detailed process, statistical, observation based), process representation, boundary conditions, initial conditions, and driver data. To investigate these differences we conducted a model-model and model-data comparison using available forward ecosystem model and atmospheric inverse output, along with regional scale inventory data. Forward or "bottom-up" models typically estimate carbon fluxes through a set of physiological relationships, and are based on our current mechanistic understanding of how carbon is exchanged within ecosystems. Inverse or "top-down" analyses use measured atmospheric concentrations of CO2, coupled with an atmospheric transport model to infer surface flux distributions. Although bottom-up models do fairly well at reproducing measured fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem exchange) at a given location, they vary considerably in their estimates of carbon flux over regional or continental scales, suggesting difficulty in scaling mechanistic relationships to large areas and/or timescales. Conversely, top-down inverse models predict fluxes that are quantitatively consistent with atmospheric measurements, suggesting that they are capturing large scale variability in flux quite well, but offer limited insights into the processes controlling this variability and how fluxes vary at fine spatial scales. The analyses focused on identifying and quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes among the models; quantifying across-model variability, as well as comparing simulated or estimated surface fluxes and biomass to observed values at regional to continental scales for the period 2000-2005. The analysis focused on the following three

Scientists' Needs in Software Ecosystem Modeling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jansen, Slinger; Handoyo, Eko; Alves, C.

2015-01-01

Currently the landscape of software ecosystem modelling methods and languages is like Babel after the fall of the tower: there are many methods and languages available and interchanging data between researchers and organizations that actively govern their ecosystem, is practically impossible. The

Ecosystem Model Performance at Wetlands: Results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis

Science.gov (United States)

Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Schroeder, N. M.; NACP Site Synthesis Participants

2011-12-01

Northern peatlands contain a significant fraction of the global carbon pool, and their responses to hydrological change are likely to be important factors in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Global-scale carbon cycle modeling studies typically use general ecosystem models with coarse spatial resolution, often without peatland-specific processes. Here, seven ecosystem models were used to simulate CO2 fluxes at three field sites in Canada and the northern United States, including two nutrient-rich fens and one nutrient-poor, sphagnum-dominated bog, from 2002-2006. Flux residuals (simulated - observed) were positively correlated with measured water table for both gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) at the two fen sites for all models, and were positively correlated with water table at the bog site for the majority of models. Modeled diurnal cycles at fen sites agreed well with eddy covariance measurements overall. Eddy covariance GEP and ER were higher during dry periods than during wet periods, while model results predicted either the opposite relationship or no significant difference. At the bog site, eddy covariance GEP had no significant dependence on water table, while models predicted higher GEP during wet periods. All models significantly over-estimated GEP at the bog site, and all but one over-estimated ER at the bog site. Carbon cycle models in peatland-rich regions could be improved by incorporating better models or measurements of hydrology and by inhibiting GEP and ER rates under saturated conditions. Bogs and fens likely require distinct treatments in ecosystem models due to differences in nutrients, peat properties, and plant communities.

Year-round Regional CO2 Fluxes from Boreal and Tundra Ecosystems in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Commane, R.; Lindaas, J.; Benmergui, J. S.; Luus, K. A.; Chang, R. Y. W.; Daube, B. C.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Henderson, J.; Karion, A.; Miller, J. B.; Miller, S. M.; Parazoo, N.; Randerson, J. T.; Sweeney, C.; Tans, P. P.; Thoning, K. W.; Veraverbeke, S.; Miller, C. E.; Wofsy, S. C.

2016-12-01

High-latitude ecosystems could release large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere in a warmer climate. We derive temporally and spatially resolved year-round CO2 fluxes in Alaska from a synthesis of airborne and tower CO2 observations in 2012-2014. We find that tundra ecosystems were net sources of atmospheric CO2. We discuss these flux estimates in the context of long-term CO2 measurements at Barrow, AK, to asses the long term trend in carbon fluxes in the Arctic. Many Earth System Models incorrectly simulate net carbon uptake in Alaska presently. Our results imply that annual net emission of CO2 to the atmosphere may have increased markedly in this region of the Arctic in response to warming climate, supporting the view that climate-carbon feedback is strongly positive in the high Arctic.

Evaluating the governance model of hardware-dependent software ecosystems - a case study of the axis ecosystem

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wnuk, Krzysztof; Manikas, Konstantinos; Runeson, Per

2014-01-01

specifically, we evaluate the governance model applied by Axis, a network video and surveillance camera producer, that is the platform owner and orchestrator of the Application Development Partner (ADP) software ecosystem. We conduct an exploratory case study collecting data from observations and interviews...... and apply the governance model for prevention and improvement of the software ecosystem health proposed by Jansen and Cusumano. Our results reveal that although the governance actions do not address the majority of their governance model, the ADP ecosystem is considered a growing ecosystem providing...

Regional scale prioritisation for key ecosystem services, renewable energy production and urban development.

Science.gov (United States)

Casalegno, Stefano; Bennie, Jonathan J; Inger, Richard; Gaston, Kevin J

2014-01-01

Although the importance of addressing ecosystem service benefits in regional land use planning and decision-making is evident, substantial practical challenges remain. In particular, methods to identify priority areas for the provision of key ecosystem services and other environmental services (benefits from the environment not directly linked to the function of ecosystems) need to be developed. Priority areas are locations which provide disproportionally high benefits from one or more service. Here we map a set of ecosystem and environmental services and delineate priority areas according to different scenarios. Each scenario is produced by a set of weightings allocated to different services and corresponds to different landscape management strategies which decision makers could undertake. Using the county of Cornwall, U.K., as a case study, we processed gridded maps of key ecosystem services and environmental services, including renewable energy production and urban development. We explored their spatial distribution patterns and their spatial covariance and spatial stationarity within the region. Finally we applied a complementarity-based priority ranking algorithm (zonation) using different weighting schemes. Our conclusions are that (i) there are two main patterns of service distribution in this region, clustered services (including agriculture, carbon stocks, urban development and plant production) and dispersed services (including cultural services, energy production and floods mitigation); (ii) more than half of the services are spatially correlated and there is high non-stationarity in the spatial covariance between services; and (iii) it is important to consider both ecosystem services and other environmental services in identifying priority areas. Different weighting schemes provoke drastic changes in the delineation of priority areas and therefore decision making processes need to carefully consider the relative values attributed to different services.

Regional Integrated Silvopastoral Approaches to Ecosystem Management Project

OpenAIRE

CIPAV (Centre For Research on Sustainable Agricultural Production Systems); CATIE (Centro Agronomico Tropical de Investigacion y Ensenanza); NITLAPAN

2007-01-01

Metadata only record The Regional Integrated Silvopastoral Approaches to Ecosystem Management Project introduces the payment for environmental services approach to silvopastoral farmers in Colombia, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. The objectives of the project are to "demonstrate and measure a) the effects the introduction of payment incentives for environmental services to farmers on their adoption of integrated silvopastoral farming systems in degraded pasture lands; and b) the resulting impr...

Soil respiration in different agricultural and natural ecosystems in an arid region.

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Liming; Zhao, Xuechun; Jiang, Lianhe; Wang, Yongji; Luo, Liangguo; Zheng, Yuanrun; Chen, Xi; Rimmington, Glyn M

2012-01-01

The variation of different ecosystems on the terrestrial carbon balance is predicted to be large. We investigated a typical arid region with widespread saline/alkaline soils, and evaluated soil respiration of different agricultural and natural ecosystems. Soil respiration for five ecosystems together with soil temperature, soil moisture, soil pH, soil electric conductivity and soil organic carbon content were investigated in the field. Comparing with the natural ecosystems, the mean seasonal soil respiration rates of the agricultural ecosystems were 96%-386% higher and agricultural ecosystems exhibited lower CO(2) absorption by the saline/alkaline soil. Soil temperature and moisture together explained 48%, 86%, 84%, 54% and 54% of the seasonal variations of soil respiration in the five ecosystems, respectively. There was a significant negative relationship between soil respiration and soil electrical conductivity, but a weak correlation between soil respiration and soil pH or soil organic carbon content. Our results showed that soil CO(2) emissions were significantly different among different agricultural and natural ecosystems, although we caution that this was an observational, not manipulative, study. Temperature at the soil surface and electric conductivity were the main driving factors of soil respiration across the five ecosystems. Care should be taken when converting native vegetation into cropland from the point of view of greenhouse gas emissions.

Conceptualizing the role of sediment in sustaining ecosystem services: Sediment-ecosystem regional assessment (SEcoRA).

Science.gov (United States)

Apitz, Sabine E

2012-01-15

There is a growing trend to include a consideration of ecosystem services, the benefits that people obtain from ecosystems, within decision frameworks. Not more than a decade ago, sediment management efforts were largely site-specific and held little attention except in terms of managing contaminant inputs and addressing sediments as a nuisance at commercial ports and harbors. Sediments figure extensively in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; however, contaminated sediment is not the dominant concern. Rather, the focus is on land and water use and management on the landscape scale, which can profoundly affect soil and sediment quality, quantity and fate. Habitat change and loss, due to changes in sediment inputs, whether reductions (resulting in the loss of beaches, storm protection, nutrient inputs, etc.) or increases (resulting in lake, reservoir and wetland infilling, coral reef smothering, etc.); eutrophication and reductions in nutrient inputs, and disturbance due to development and fishing practices are considered major drivers, with significant consequences for biodiversity and the provision and resilience of ecosystem functions and services. As a mobile connecting medium between various parts of the ecosystem via the hydrocycle, sediments both contaminated and uncontaminated, play both positive and negative roles in the viability and sustainability of social, economic, and ecological objectives. How these roles are interpreted depends upon whether sediment status (defined in terms of sediment quality, quantity, location and transport) is appropriate to the needs of a given endpoint; understanding and managing the dynamic interactions of sediment status on a diverse range of endpoints at the landscape or watershed scale should be the focus of sediment management. This paper seeks to provide a language and conceptual framework upon which sediment-ecosystem regional assessments (SEcoRAs) can be developed in support of that goal. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B

Maximum entropy models of ecosystem functioning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bertram, Jason

2014-01-01

Using organism-level traits to deduce community-level relationships is a fundamental problem in theoretical ecology. This problem parallels the physical one of using particle properties to deduce macroscopic thermodynamic laws, which was successfully achieved with the development of statistical physics. Drawing on this parallel, theoretical ecologists from Lotka onwards have attempted to construct statistical mechanistic theories of ecosystem functioning. Jaynes’ broader interpretation of statistical mechanics, which hinges on the entropy maximisation algorithm (MaxEnt), is of central importance here because the classical foundations of statistical physics do not have clear ecological analogues (e.g. phase space, dynamical invariants). However, models based on the information theoretic interpretation of MaxEnt are difficult to interpret ecologically. Here I give a broad discussion of statistical mechanical models of ecosystem functioning and the application of MaxEnt in these models. Emphasising the sample frequency interpretation of MaxEnt, I show that MaxEnt can be used to construct models of ecosystem functioning which are statistical mechanical in the traditional sense using a savanna plant ecology model as an example

Maximum entropy models of ecosystem functioning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bertram, Jason, E-mail: jason.bertram@anu.edu.au [Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

2014-12-05

Using organism-level traits to deduce community-level relationships is a fundamental problem in theoretical ecology. This problem parallels the physical one of using particle properties to deduce macroscopic thermodynamic laws, which was successfully achieved with the development of statistical physics. Drawing on this parallel, theoretical ecologists from Lotka onwards have attempted to construct statistical mechanistic theories of ecosystem functioning. Jaynes’ broader interpretation of statistical mechanics, which hinges on the entropy maximisation algorithm (MaxEnt), is of central importance here because the classical foundations of statistical physics do not have clear ecological analogues (e.g. phase space, dynamical invariants). However, models based on the information theoretic interpretation of MaxEnt are difficult to interpret ecologically. Here I give a broad discussion of statistical mechanical models of ecosystem functioning and the application of MaxEnt in these models. Emphasising the sample frequency interpretation of MaxEnt, I show that MaxEnt can be used to construct models of ecosystem functioning which are statistical mechanical in the traditional sense using a savanna plant ecology model as an example.

Interacting Regional-Scale Regime Shifts for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leadley, P.; Proenca, V.; Fernandez-Manjarres, J.; Pereira, H.M.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Biggs, R.; Bruley, E.; Cheung, W.; Cooper, D.; Figueiredo, J.; Gilman, E.; Guenette, S.; Hurtt, G.; Mbow, C.; Oberdorff, T.; Revenga, C.; Scharlemann, J.P.W.; Scholes, R.; Smith, M.S.; Sumaila, U.R.; Walpole, M.

2014-01-01

Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human-environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are

Exploring inter-organizational collaboration for innovation in a regional ecosystem

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Radziwon, Agnieszka

2017-01-01

on an organization’s development. Nevertheless, many aspects of open innovation are not yet well explored. Relatively few studies address the challenges of open innovation from the small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) perspective, especially at the level of business ecosystems. Therefore, this research aims...... at filling this gap by providing a study immersed in an open innovation context with a particular focus on the ways how SMEs contribute to the development of the ecosystem they are embedded in. A central point of attention of this study is inter-organizational collaboration between SMEs and other...... with grounded theory and action research elements. The study was conducted in a Danish regional business ecosystem. This research project was implemented in order to facilitate the improvement of SMEs’ innovation performance through inter-organizational collaboration. The main findings offer insights...

Linking biophysical models and public preferences for ecosystem service assessments: a case study for the Southern Rocky Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Reed, James; Semmens, Darius J.; Sherrouse, Ben C.; Troy, Austin

2016-01-01

Through extensive research, ecosystem services have been mapped using both survey-based and biophysical approaches, but comparative mapping of public values and those quantified using models has been lacking. In this paper, we mapped hot and cold spots for perceived and modeled ecosystem services by synthesizing results from a social-values mapping study of residents living near the Pike–San Isabel National Forest (PSI), located in the Southern Rocky Mountains, with corresponding biophysically modeled ecosystem services. Social-value maps for the PSI were developed using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services tool, providing statistically modeled continuous value surfaces for 12 value types, including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values. Biophysically modeled maps of carbon sequestration and storage, scenic viewsheds, sediment regulation, and water yield were generated using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services tool. Hotspots for both perceived and modeled services were disproportionately located within the PSI’s wilderness areas. Additionally, we used regression analysis to evaluate spatial relationships between perceived biodiversity and cultural ecosystem services and corresponding biophysical model outputs. Our goal was to determine whether publicly valued locations for aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values relate meaningfully to results from corresponding biophysical ecosystem service models. We found weak relationships between perceived and biophysically modeled services, indicating that public perception of ecosystem service provisioning regions is limited. We believe that biophysical and social approaches to ecosystem service mapping can serve as methodological complements that can advance ecosystem services-based resource management, benefitting resource managers by showing potential locations of synergy or conflict between areas supplying ecosystem services and those valued by the public.

Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Janssen, Annette B G; Arhonditsis, George B.; Beusen, Arthur

2015-01-01

Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality...... management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity...... available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5–10 years...

Managing SMEs’ Collaboration Across Organizational Boundaries Within a Regional Business Ecosystem

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Radziwon, Agnieszka; Bogers, Marcel

2018-01-01

autonomy and control over the partners and indicate shared issues and responsibilities crucial for further ecosystem development. As a conclusion, we offer a set of recommendations both for managers and policymakers concerning general organizational requirements and governing structures.......’ perspective on managing and organizing inter-company collaboration within a regional business. We explore how purposefully managed mutual knowledge flows across organizational boundaries applied by SMEs contribute to the development of the ecosystem they are immersed in. Our key findings include insights...

A hierarchical analysis of terrestrial ecosystem model Biome-BGC: Equilibrium analysis and model calibration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Wang, Weile [ORNL; Law, Beverly E. [Oregon State University; Nemani, Ramakrishna R [NASA Ames Research Center

2009-01-01

The increasing complexity of ecosystem models represents a major difficulty in tuning model parameters and analyzing simulated results. To address this problem, this study develops a hierarchical scheme that simplifies the Biome-BGC model into three functionally cascaded tiers and analyzes them sequentially. The first-tier model focuses on leaf-level ecophysiological processes; it simulates evapotranspiration and photosynthesis with prescribed leaf area index (LAI). The restriction on LAI is then lifted in the following two model tiers, which analyze how carbon and nitrogen is cycled at the whole-plant level (the second tier) and in all litter/soil pools (the third tier) to dynamically support the prescribed canopy. In particular, this study analyzes the steady state of these two model tiers by a set of equilibrium equations that are derived from Biome-BGC algorithms and are based on the principle of mass balance. Instead of spinning-up the model for thousands of climate years, these equations are able to estimate carbon/nitrogen stocks and fluxes of the target (steady-state) ecosystem directly from the results obtained by the first-tier model. The model hierarchy is examined with model experiments at four AmeriFlux sites. The results indicate that the proposed scheme can effectively calibrate Biome-BGC to simulate observed fluxes of evapotranspiration and photosynthesis; and the carbon/nitrogen stocks estimated by the equilibrium analysis approach are highly consistent with the results of model simulations. Therefore, the scheme developed in this study may serve as a practical guide to calibrate/analyze Biome-BGC; it also provides an efficient way to solve the problem of model spin-up, especially for applications over large regions. The same methodology may help analyze other similar ecosystem models as well.

Review on the Application of Ecosystem Models in Biodiversity ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper is an exposition with the sole aim of highlighting the relevance of ecosystem models in the analyses of biodiversity. The structure of ecosystem models enables researchers to design and consequently formulate monitoring programs that will be useful to the conservation of biodiversity. Ecosystem theoretical ...

A singular evolutive extended Kalman filter to assimilate real in situ data in a 1-D marine ecosystem model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Hoteit

2003-01-01

Full Text Available A singular evolutive extended Kalman (SEEK filter is used to assimilate real in situ data in a water column marine ecosystem model. The biogeochemistry of the ecosystem is described by the European Regional Sea Ecosystem Model (ERSEM, while the physical forcing is described by the Princeton Ocean Model (POM. In the SEEK filter, the error statistics are parameterized by means of a suitable basis of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs. The purpose of this contribution is to track the possibility of using data assimilation techniques for state estimation in marine ecosystem models. In the experiments, real oxygen and nitrate data are used and the results evaluated against independent chlorophyll data. These data were collected from an offshore station at three different depths for the needs of the MFSPP project. The assimilation results show a continuous decrease in the estimation error and a clear improvement in the model behavior. Key words. Oceanography: general (ocean prediction; numerical modelling – Oceanography: biological and chemical (ecosystems and ecology

Regional scale prioritisation for key ecosystem services, renewable energy production and urban development.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefano Casalegno

Full Text Available Although the importance of addressing ecosystem service benefits in regional land use planning and decision-making is evident, substantial practical challenges remain. In particular, methods to identify priority areas for the provision of key ecosystem services and other environmental services (benefits from the environment not directly linked to the function of ecosystems need to be developed. Priority areas are locations which provide disproportionally high benefits from one or more service. Here we map a set of ecosystem and environmental services and delineate priority areas according to different scenarios. Each scenario is produced by a set of weightings allocated to different services and corresponds to different landscape management strategies which decision makers could undertake. Using the county of Cornwall, U.K., as a case study, we processed gridded maps of key ecosystem services and environmental services, including renewable energy production and urban development. We explored their spatial distribution patterns and their spatial covariance and spatial stationarity within the region. Finally we applied a complementarity-based priority ranking algorithm (zonation using different weighting schemes. Our conclusions are that (i there are two main patterns of service distribution in this region, clustered services (including agriculture, carbon stocks, urban development and plant production and dispersed services (including cultural services, energy production and floods mitigation; (ii more than half of the services are spatially correlated and there is high non-stationarity in the spatial covariance between services; and (iii it is important to consider both ecosystem services and other environmental services in identifying priority areas. Different weighting schemes provoke drastic changes in the delineation of priority areas and therefore decision making processes need to carefully consider the relative values attributed to

Principal factors of soil spatial heterogeneity and ecosystem services at the Central Chernozemic Region of Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Vasenev, Ivan; Valentini, Riccardo

2013-04-01

The essential spatial heterogeneity is mutual feature for most natural and man-changed soils at the Central Chernozemic Region of Russia which is not only one of the biggest «food baskets» in RF but very important regulator of ecosystem principal services at the European territory of Russia. The original spatial heterogeneity of dominated here forest-steppe and steppe Chernozems and the other soils has been further complicated by a specific land-use history and different-direction soil successions due to environmental changes and more than 1000-year history of human impacts. The carried out long-term researches of representative natural, rural and urban landscapes in Kursk, Orel, Tambov and Voronezh oblasts give us the regional multi-factorial matrix of elementary soil cover patterns (ESCP) with different land-use practices and history, soil-geomorphologic features, environmental and microclimate conditions. The validation and ranging of the limiting factors of ESCP regulation and development, ecosystem principal services, land functional qualities and agroecological state have been done for dominating and most dynamical components of ESCP regional-typological forms - with application of regional and local GIS, soil spatial patterns mapping, traditional regression kriging, correlation tree models. The outcomes of statistical modeling show the essential amplification of erosion, dehumification and CO2 emission, acidification and alkalization, disaggregation and overcompaction processes due to violation of agroecologically sound land-use systems and traditional balances of organic matter, nutrients, Ca and Na in agrolandscapes. Due to long-term intensive and out-of-balance land-use practices the famous Russian Chernozems begin to lose not only their unique natural features of (around 1 m of humus horizon, 4-6% of Corg and favorable agrophysical features), but traditional soil cover patterns, ecosystem services and agroecological functions. Key-site monitoring

[Evaluation of ecosystem resilience in the regions across Qinghai-Tibet railway based on GIS].

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Jiang-bo; Zhao, Zhi-qiang; Li, Shuang-cheng

2008-11-01

Based on GIS technique and the methods of mean-squared deviation weight decision and catastrophe progression, a more clear definition and associated evaluation for ecosystem resilience were given, with a case study in the regions across Qinghai-Tibet railway by using the indices of plant community coverage, species diversity, and biomass. It was shown that the areas with high ecosystem resilience were mainly located in the Qilian Mountain meadow grassland, Huangshui Valley needle-leaved and deciduous broad-leaved forest, and south Tanggula Mountain kobresia swamp meadow, while those with the lowest resilience were in the central part of Qaidam Basin, and the Kunlun Mountains. Most areas in the regions had higher or medium ecosystem resilience, with a trend of that in the south of Kunlun Mountains, the resilience in the north of the railway was lower, while in the east of Qaidam Basin (especially in the Qinghai Lake area), the resilience was lower in the south than in the north of the railway. Through the evaluation of ecosystem resilience, the key issues in the process of ecological resilience could be found, and corresponding effective measures would be pointed out to manage alpine ecosystems. Moreover, combining with the evaluation of vulnerability, scientific basis for regional development could be provided to avoid or mitigate the negative effects of human activities on eco-environment.

Selenium in ecosystems within the mountaintop coal mining and valley-fill region of southern West Virginia-assessment and ecosystem-scale modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Presser, Theresa S.

2013-01-01

Coal and associated waste rock are among environmental selenium (Se) sources that have the potential to affect reproduction in fish and aquatic birds. Ecosystems of southern West Virginia that are affected by drainage from mountaintop coal mines and valleys filled with waste rock in the Coal, Gauley, and Lower Guyandotte watersheds were assessed during 2010 and 2011. Sampling data from earlier studies in these watersheds (for example, Upper Mud River Reservoir) and other mining-affected watersheds also are included to assess additional hydrologic settings and food webs for comparison. Basin schematics give a comprehensive view of sampled species and Se concentration data specific to location and date. Food-web diagrams document the progression of Se trophic transfer across suspended particulate material, invertebrates, and fish for each site to serve as the basis for developing an ecosystem-scale model to predict Se exposure within the hydrologic conditions and food webs of southern West Virginia. This approach integrates a site-specific predator’s dietary exposure pathway into modeling to ensure an adequate link to Se toxicity and, thus, to species vulnerability. Site-specific fish abundance and richness data in streams documented various species of chub, shiner, dace, darters, bass, minnow, sunfish, sucker, catfish, and central stoneroller (Campostoma anomalum), mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdii), and least brook lamprey (Lampetra aepyptera). However, Se assessment species for streams, and hence, model species for streams, were limited to creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus) and central stoneroller. Both of these species of fish are generally considered to have a high tolerance for environmental stress based on traditional comparative fish community assessment, with creek chub being present at all sites. Aquatic insects (mayfly, caddisfly, stonefly, dobsonfly, chironomid) were the main invertebrates sampled in streams. Collection of suspended particulate material

Preliminary analysis of the Jimo coastal ecosystem with the ecopath model

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Meng

2016-12-01

The Jimo coast encompasses an area of 2157 km2, and the ecosystem is valuable both socially and economically with regional fisheries substantially contributing to the value. A mass-balanced trophic model consisting of 15 functional ecological groups was developed for the coastal ecosystem using the Ecopath model in Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software (version 6.4.3). The results of the model simulations indicated that the trophic levels of the functional groups varied between 1.0 and 3.76, and the total production of the system was estimated to be 5112.733 t km-2 yr-1 with a total energy transfer efficiency of 17.6%. The proportion of the total flow originating from detritus was estimated to be 48%, whereas that from primary producers was 52%, indicating that the grazing food chain dominated the energy flow. The ratio of total primary productivity to total respiration in the system was 3.78, and the connectivity index was 0.4. The fin cycling index and the mean path length of the energy flow were 4.92% and 2.57%, respectively, which indicated that the ecosystem exhibits relatively low maturity and stability. The mixed trophic impact (MTI) procedure suggested that the ecological groups at lower trophic levels dominated the feeding dynamics in the Jimo coastal ecosystem. Overfishing is thought to be the primary reason for the degeneration of the Jimo coastal ecosystem, resulting in a decline in the abundance of pelagic and demersal fish species and a subsequent shift to the predominance of lower-trophic-level functional groups. Finally, we offered some recommendations for improving current fishery management practices.

Soil respiration in different agricultural and natural ecosystems in an arid region.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liming Lai

Full Text Available The variation of different ecosystems on the terrestrial carbon balance is predicted to be large. We investigated a typical arid region with widespread saline/alkaline soils, and evaluated soil respiration of different agricultural and natural ecosystems. Soil respiration for five ecosystems together with soil temperature, soil moisture, soil pH, soil electric conductivity and soil organic carbon content were investigated in the field. Comparing with the natural ecosystems, the mean seasonal soil respiration rates of the agricultural ecosystems were 96%-386% higher and agricultural ecosystems exhibited lower CO(2 absorption by the saline/alkaline soil. Soil temperature and moisture together explained 48%, 86%, 84%, 54% and 54% of the seasonal variations of soil respiration in the five ecosystems, respectively. There was a significant negative relationship between soil respiration and soil electrical conductivity, but a weak correlation between soil respiration and soil pH or soil organic carbon content. Our results showed that soil CO(2 emissions were significantly different among different agricultural and natural ecosystems, although we caution that this was an observational, not manipulative, study. Temperature at the soil surface and electric conductivity were the main driving factors of soil respiration across the five ecosystems. Care should be taken when converting native vegetation into cropland from the point of view of greenhouse gas emissions.

77 FR 12243 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Pacific Islands Region Coral Reef Ecosystems...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-29

... Collection; Comment Request; Pacific Islands Region Coral Reef Ecosystems Permit Form AGENCY: National... using a vessel to fish for Western Pacific coral reef ecosystem management unit species in the... allowed in the regulations; or (3) fishing for, taking, or retaining any Potentially Harvested Coral Reef...

Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Seidl, R.; Fernandes, P.M.; Fonseca, T.F.; Gillet, F.; Jöhnsson, A.M.; Merganičová, K.; Netherer, S.; Arpaci, A.; Bontemps, J.D.; Bugmann, H.; González-Olabarria, J.R.; Lasch, P.; Meredieu, C.; Moreira, F.; Schelhaas, M.; Mohren, G.M.J.

2011-01-01

Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling

Exploring the willingness to pay for forest ecosystem services by residents of the Veneto Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paola Gatto

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Forests produce a wide array of goods, both private and public. The demand for forest ecosystem services is increasing in many European countries, yet there is still a scarcity of data on values at regional scale for Alpine areas. A Choice Experiment survey has been conducted in order to explore preferences, uses and the willingness of the Veneto population to pay for ecosystem services produced by regional mountain forests. The results show that willingness to pay is significant for recreation and C-sequestration but not for biodiversity conservation, landscape and other ecosystem services. These findings question the feasibility of developing market-based mechanisms in Veneto at present and cast light on the possible role of public institutions in promoting policy actions to increase the general awareness of forest-related ecosystem services.

Analysis of litter mesofauna of Poltava region forest ecosystems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. S. Komarov

2007-08-01

Full Text Available On the basis of research of litter mesofauna of 48 forest biogeocenoses the regularities of invertebrate communities formation on the species and families levels are determined. The degree of similarity of test plots are analysed by taxonomic structure of the communities. The factors of the litter invertebrate communities formation in forest ecosystems of the Poltava region are revealed.

Exploring spatial change and gravity center movement for ecosystem services value using a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and gravity model.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Yingbin; Chen, Youqi; Tang, Huajun; Yao, Yanmin; Yang, Peng; Chen, Zhongxin

2011-04-01

Spatially explicit ecosystem services valuation and change is a newly developing area of research in the field of ecology. Using the Beijing region as a study area, the authors have developed a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and implemented this to quantify and spatially differentiate ecosystem services value at 1-km grid resolution. A gravity model was developed to trace spatial change in the total ecosystem services value of the Beijing study area from a holistic point of view. Study results show that the total value of ecosystem services for the study area decreased by 19.75% during the period 1996-2006 (3,226.2739 US$×10(6) in 1996, 2,589.0321 US$×10(6) in 2006). However, 27.63% of the total area of the Beijing study area increased in ecosystem services value. Spatial differences in ecosystem services values for both 1996 and 2006 are very clear. The center of gravity of total ecosystem services value for the study area moved 32.28 km northwestward over the 10 years due to intensive human intervention taking place in southeast Beijing. The authors suggest that policy-makers should pay greater attention to ecological protection under conditions of rapid socio-economic development and increase the area of green belt in the southeastern part of Beijing.

Ecosystem services sustainability in the Mediterranean Sea: assessment of status and trends using multiple modelling approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Macías, Diego; Druon, Jean-Noël; Zulian, Grazia

2016-09-01

Mediterranean ecosystems support important processes and functions that bring direct benefits to human society. Yet, marine ecosystem services are usually overlooked due to the challenges in identifying and quantifying them. This paper proposes the application of several biophysical and ecosystem modelling approaches to assess spatially and temporally the sustainable use and supply of selected marine ecosystem services. Such services include food provision, water purification, coastal protection, lifecycle maintenance and recreation, focusing on the Mediterranean region. Overall, our study found a higher number of decreasing than increasing trends in the natural capacity of the ecosystems to provide marine and coastal services, while in contrast the opposite was observed to be true for the realised flow of services to humans. Such a study paves the way towards an effective support for Blue Growth and the European maritime policies, although little attention is paid to the quantification of marine ecosystem services in this context. We identify a key challenge of integrating biophysical and socio-economic models as a necessary step to further this research.

A Regional Earth System Model of the Northeast Corridor: Analyzing 21st Century Climate and Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Vorosmarty, C. J.; Duchin, F.; Melillo, J. M.; Wollheim, W. M.; Gonzalez, J.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Rosenzweig, B.; Yang, P.; Lengyel, F.; Fekete, B. M.

2012-12-01

The Northeast region (NE) exhibits many of the changes taking place across the Nation's landscapes and watersheds, yet also provides a unique lens through which to assess options for managing large-scale natural resource systems. We report here on a regional NSF-funded Earth System Modeling (EaSM) project, which has assembled an interdisciplinary research team from academia and government with expertise in physics, biogeochemistry, engineering, energy, economics, and policy engagement. The team is simultaneously studying the evolution of regional human-environment systems and seeking to improve the translation of research findings to the planning community. We hypothesize that there are regionally-significant consequences of human decisions on environmental systems of the NE, expressed through the action of both natural and engineered human systems that dictate the region's biogeophysical state, ecosystem services, energy and economic output. Our central goal is: To build a Northeast Regional Earth System Model (NE-RESM) that improves understanding and capacity to forecast the implications of planning decisions on the region's environment, ecosystem services, energy systems and economy through the 21st century. We are using scenario experiments to test our hypothesis and to make forecasts about the future. We see the proposed research as a major step forward in developing a capacity to diagnose and understand the state of large, interacting human-natural systems. Major foci include: the application of meso-scale atmospheric physics models to drive terrestrial-aquatic ecosystem models; a linked ecosystem services accounting tool; geospatial modeling of anthropogenic GHG emissions and biotic source/sinks at improved space/time resolutions; and meso-economic input-output model to evaluate the impacts of ecosystem services constraints on subregional economies. The presentation will report on recent progress across three strategic planning fronts, which are important to

Analysis and classification of data sets for calibration and validation of agro-ecosystem models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kersebaum, K C; Boote, K J; Jorgenson, J S

2015-01-01

Experimental field data are used at different levels of complexity to calibrate, validate and improve agro-ecosystem models to enhance their reliability for regional impact assessment. A methodological framework and software are presented to evaluate and classify data sets into four classes regar...

Approaches to modelling hydrology and ecosystem interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Silberstein, Richard P.

2014-05-01

As the pressures of industry, agriculture and mining on groundwater resources increase there is a burgeoning un-met need to be able to capture these multiple, direct and indirect stresses in a formal framework that will enable better assessment of impact scenarios. While there are many catchment hydrological models and there are some models that represent ecological states and change (e.g. FLAMES, Liedloff and Cook, 2007), these have not been linked in any deterministic or substantive way. Without such coupled eco-hydrological models quantitative assessments of impacts from water use intensification on water dependent ecosystems under changing climate are difficult, if not impossible. The concept would include facility for direct and indirect water related stresses that may develop around mining and well operations, climate stresses, such as rainfall and temperature, biological stresses, such as diseases and invasive species, and competition such as encroachment from other competing land uses. Indirect water impacts could be, for example, a change in groundwater conditions has an impact on stream flow regime, and hence aquatic ecosystems. This paper reviews previous work examining models combining ecology and hydrology with a view to developing a conceptual framework linking a biophysically defensable model that combines ecosystem function with hydrology. The objective is to develop a model capable of representing the cumulative impact of multiple stresses on water resources and associated ecosystem function.

Modeling soil moisture memory in savanna ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Gou, S.; Miller, G. R.

2011-12-01

Antecedent soil conditions create an ecosystem's "memory" of past rainfall events. Such soil moisture memory effects may be observed over a range of timescales, from daily to yearly, and lead to feedbacks between hydrological and ecosystem processes. In this study, we modeled the soil moisture memory effect on savanna ecosystems in California, Arizona, and Africa, using a system dynamics model created to simulate the ecohydrological processes at the plot-scale. The model was carefully calibrated using soil moisture and evapotranspiration data collected at three study sites. The model was then used to simulate scenarios with various initial soil moisture conditions and antecedent precipitation regimes, in order to study the soil moisture memory effects on the evapotranspiration of understory and overstory species. Based on the model results, soil texture and antecedent precipitation regime impact the redistribution of water within soil layers, potentially causing deeper soil layers to influence the ecosystem for a longer time. Of all the study areas modeled, soil moisture memory of California savanna ecosystem site is replenished and dries out most rapidly. Thus soil moisture memory could not maintain the high rate evapotranspiration for more than a few days without incoming rainfall event. On the contrary, soil moisture memory of Arizona savanna ecosystem site lasts the longest time. The plants with different root depths respond to different memory effects; shallow-rooted species mainly respond to the soil moisture memory in the shallow soil. The growing season of grass is largely depended on the soil moisture memory of the top 25cm soil layer. Grass transpiration is sensitive to the antecedent precipitation events within daily to weekly timescale. Deep-rooted plants have different responses since these species can access to the deeper soil moisture memory with longer time duration Soil moisture memory does not have obvious impacts on the phenology of woody plants

Development of a coupled physical-biological ecosystem model ECOSMO - Part I: Model description and validation for the North Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schrum, Corinna; Alekseeva, I.; St. John, Michael

2006-01-01

A 3-D coupled biophysical model ECOSMO (ECOSystem MOdel) has been developed. The biological module of ECOSMO is based on lower trophic level interactions between two phyto- and two zooplankton components. The dynamics of the different phytoplankton components are governed by the availability...... of the macronutrients nitrogen, phosphate and silicate as well as light. Zooplankton production is simulated based on the consumption of the different phytoplankton groups and detritus. The biological module is coupled to a nonlinear 3-D baroclinic model. The physical and biological modules are driven by surface...... showed that the model, based on consideration of limiting processes, is able to reproduce the observed spatial and seasonal variability of the North Sea ecosystem e.g. the spring bloom, summer sub-surface production and the fall bloom. Distinct differences in regional characteristics of diatoms...

Regional inversion of CO2 ecosystem fluxes from atmospheric measurements. Reliability of the uncertainty estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Broquet, G.; Chevallier, F.; Breon, F.M.; Yver, C.; Ciais, P.; Ramonet, M.; Schmidt, M. [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Alemanno, M. [Servizio Meteorologico dell' Aeronautica Militare Italiana, Centro Aeronautica Militare di Montagna, Monte Cimone/Sestola (Italy); Apadula, F. [Research on Energy Systems, RSE, Environment and Sustainable Development Department, Milano (Italy); Hammer, S. [Universitaet Heidelberg, Institut fuer Umweltphysik, Heidelberg (Germany); Haszpra, L. [Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest (Hungary); Meinhardt, F. [Federal Environmental Agency, Kirchzarten (Germany); Necki, J. [AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow (Poland); Piacentino, S. [ENEA, Laboratory for Earth Observations and Analyses, Palermo (Italy); Thompson, R.L. [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany); Vermeulen, A.T. [Energy research Centre of the Netherlands ECN, EEE-EA, Petten (Netherlands)

2013-07-01

The Bayesian framework of CO2 flux inversions permits estimates of the retrieved flux uncertainties. Here, the reliability of these theoretical estimates is studied through a comparison against the misfits between the inverted fluxes and independent measurements of the CO2 Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) made by the eddy covariance technique at local (few hectares) scale. Regional inversions at 0.5{sup 0} resolution are applied for the western European domain where {approx}50 eddy covariance sites are operated. These inversions are conducted for the period 2002-2007. They use a mesoscale atmospheric transport model, a prior estimate of the NEE from a terrestrial ecosystem model and rely on the variational assimilation of in situ continuous measurements of CO2 atmospheric mole fractions. Averaged over monthly periods and over the whole domain, the misfits are in good agreement with the theoretical uncertainties for prior and inverted NEE, and pass the chi-square test for the variance at the 30% and 5% significance levels respectively, despite the scale mismatch and the independence between the prior (respectively inverted) NEE and the flux measurements. The theoretical uncertainty reduction for the monthly NEE at the measurement sites is 53% while the inversion decreases the standard deviation of the misfits by 38 %. These results build confidence in the NEE estimates at the European/monthly scales and in their theoretical uncertainty from the regional inverse modelling system. However, the uncertainties at the monthly (respectively annual) scale remain larger than the amplitude of the inter-annual variability of monthly (respectively annual) fluxes, so that this study does not engender confidence in the inter-annual variations. The uncertainties at the monthly scale are significantly smaller than the seasonal variations. The seasonal cycle of the inverted fluxes is thus reliable. In particular, the CO2 sink period over the European continent likely ends later than

Ecosystem function in complex mountain terrain: Combining models and long-term observations to advance process-based understanding

Science.gov (United States)

Wieder, William R.; Knowles, John F.; Blanken, Peter D.; Swenson, Sean C.; Suding, Katharine N.

2017-04-01

Abiotic factors structure plant community composition and ecosystem function across many different spatial scales. Often, such variation is considered at regional or global scales, but here we ask whether ecosystem-scale simulations can be used to better understand landscape-level variation that might be particularly important in complex terrain, such as high-elevation mountains. We performed ecosystem-scale simulations by using the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5 to better understand how the increased length of growing seasons may impact carbon, water, and energy fluxes in an alpine tundra landscape. The model was forced with meteorological data and validated with observations from the Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research Program site. Our results demonstrate that CLM is capable of reproducing the observed carbon, water, and energy fluxes for discrete vegetation patches across this heterogeneous ecosystem. We subsequently accelerated snowmelt and increased spring and summer air temperatures in order to simulate potential effects of climate change in this region. We found that vegetation communities that were characterized by different snow accumulation dynamics showed divergent biogeochemical responses to a longer growing season. Contrary to expectations, wet meadow ecosystems showed the strongest decreases in plant productivity under extended summer scenarios because of disruptions in hydrologic connectivity. These findings illustrate how Earth system models such as CLM can be used to generate testable hypotheses about the shifting nature of energy, water, and nutrient limitations across space and through time in heterogeneous landscapes; these hypotheses may ultimately guide further experimental work and model development.

Ecosystem management via interacting models of political and ecological processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haas, T. C.

2004-01-01

Full Text Available The decision to implement environmental protection options is a political one. Political realities may cause a country to not heed the most persuasive scientific analysis of an ecosystem's future health. A predictive understanding of the political processes that result in ecosystem management decisions may help guide ecosystem management policymaking. To this end, this article develops a stochastic, temporal model of how political processes influence and are influenced by ecosystem processes. This model is realized in a system of interacting influence diagrams that model the decision making of a country's political bodies. These decisions interact with a model of the ecosystem enclosed by the country. As an example, a model for Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus management in Kenya is constructed and fitted to decision and ecological data.

Ecosystem Based Business Model of Smart Grid

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundgaard, Morten Raahauge; Ma, Zheng; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

2015-01-01

This paper tries to investigate the ecosystem based business model in a smart grid infrastructure and the potential of value capture in the highly complex macro infrastructure such as smart grid. This paper proposes an alternative perspective to study the smart grid business ecosystem to support...... the infrastructural challenges, such as the interoperability of business components for smart grid. So far little research has explored the business ecosystem in the smart grid concept. The study on the smart grid with the theory of business ecosystem may open opportunities to understand market catalysts. This study...... contributes an understanding of business ecosystem applicable for smart grid. Smart grid infrastructure is an intricate business ecosystem, which have several intentions to deliver the value proposition and what it should be. The findings help to identify and capture value from markets....

Upscaling key ecosystem functions across the conterminous United States by a water‐centric ecosystem model

Science.gov (United States)

Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Asko Noormets; Steven G. McNulty; Erika Cohen; al. et.

2011-01-01

We developed a water‐centric monthly scale simulation model (WaSSI‐C) by integrating empirical water and carbon flux measurements from the FLUXNET network and an existing water supply and demand accounting model (WaSSI). The WaSSI‐C model was evaluated with basin‐scale evapotranspiration (ET), gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE)...

Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Niiranen, S.; Yletyinen, J.; Tomczak, M.T.

2013-01-01

approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional...... biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future......Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed...

A model ecosystem experiment and its computational simulation studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doi, M.

2002-01-01

Simplified microbial model ecosystem and its computer simulation model are introduced as eco-toxicity test for the assessment of environmental responses from the effects of environmental impacts. To take the effects on the interactions between species and environment into account, one option is to select the keystone species on the basis of ecological knowledge, and to put it in the single-species toxicity test. Another option proposed is to put the eco-toxicity tests as experimental micro ecosystem study and a theoretical model ecosystem analysis. With these tests, the stressors which are more harmful to the ecosystems should be replace with less harmful ones on the basis of unified measures. Management of radioactive materials, chemicals, hyper-eutrophic, and other artificial disturbances of ecosystem should be discussed consistently from the unified view point of environmental protection. (N.C.)

Improving Marine Ecosystem Models with Biochemical Tracers

Science.gov (United States)

Pethybridge, Heidi R.; Choy, C. Anela; Polovina, Jeffrey J.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

2018-01-01

Empirical data on food web dynamics and predator-prey interactions underpin ecosystem models, which are increasingly used to support strategic management of marine resources. These data have traditionally derived from stomach content analysis, but new and complementary forms of ecological data are increasingly available from biochemical tracer techniques. Extensive opportunities exist to improve the empirical robustness of ecosystem models through the incorporation of biochemical tracer data and derived indices, an area that is rapidly expanding because of advances in analytical developments and sophisticated statistical techniques. Here, we explore the trophic information required by ecosystem model frameworks (species, individual, and size based) and match them to the most commonly used biochemical tracers (bulk tissue and compound-specific stable isotopes, fatty acids, and trace elements). Key quantitative parameters derived from biochemical tracers include estimates of diet composition, niche width, and trophic position. Biochemical tracers also provide powerful insight into the spatial and temporal variability of food web structure and the characterization of dominant basal and microbial food web groups. A major challenge in incorporating biochemical tracer data into ecosystem models is scale and data type mismatches, which can be overcome with greater knowledge exchange and numerical approaches that transform, integrate, and visualize data.

Assumptions behind size-based ecosystem models are realistic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ken Haste; Blanchard, Julia L.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

2016-01-01

A recent publication about balanced harvesting (Froese et al., ICES Journal of Marine Science; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsv122) contains several erroneous statements about size-spectrum models. We refute the statements by showing that the assumptions pertaining to size-spectrum models discussed by Fro...... that there is indeed a constructive role for a wide suite of ecosystem models to evaluate fishing strategies in an ecosystem context...

Understanding the Effect of Land Cover Classification on Model Estimates of Regional Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest Biome

Science.gov (United States)

Kimball, John; Kang, Sinkyu

2003-01-01

The original objectives of this proposed 3-year project were to: 1) quantify the respective contributions of land cover and disturbance (i.e., wild fire) to uncertainty associated with regional carbon source/sink estimates produced by a variety of boreal ecosystem models; 2) identify the model processes responsible for differences in simulated carbon source/sink patterns for the boreal forest; 3) validate model outputs using tower and field- based estimates of NEP and NPP; and 4) recommend/prioritize improvements to boreal ecosystem carbon models, which will better constrain regional source/sink estimates for atmospheric C02. These original objectives were subsequently distilled to fit within the constraints of a 1 -year study. This revised study involved a regional model intercomparison over the BOREAS study region involving Biome-BGC, and TEM (A.D. McGuire, UAF) ecosystem models. The major focus of these revised activities involved quantifying the sensitivity of regional model predictions associated with land cover classification uncertainties. We also evaluated the individual and combined effects of historical fire activity, historical atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and climate change on carbon and water flux simulations within the BOREAS study region.

Model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

1980-01-01

A linear compartment model with donor-controlled flows between compartments was designed to describe and simulate the behavior of plutonium ( 239 240 Pu) in a contaminated forest ecosystem at Oak Ridge, TN. At steady states predicted by the model, less than 0.25% of the plutonium in the ecosystem resides in biota. Soil is the major repository of plutonium in the forest, and exchanges of plutonium between soil and litter or soil and tree roots were dominant transfers affecting the ecosystem distribution of plutonium. Variation in predicted steady-state amounts of plutonium in the forest, given variability in the model parameters, indicates that our ability to develop models of plutonium transport in ecosystems should improve with greater precision in data from natural environments and a better understanding of sources of variation in plutonium data

Ecosystem Based Business Model of Smart Grid

OpenAIRE

Lundgaard, Morten Raahauge; Ma, Zheng; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

2015-01-01

This paper tries to investigate the ecosystem based business model in a smart grid infrastructure and the potential of value capture in the highly complex macro infrastructure such as smart grid. This paper proposes an alternative perspective to study the smart grid business ecosystem to support the infrastructural challenges, such as the interoperability of business components for smart grid. So far little research has explored the business ecosystem in the smart grid concept. The study on t...

Modeling the impact of watershed management policies on marine ecosystem services with application to Hood Canal, WA, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Sutherland, D. A.; Kim, C.; Marsik, M.; Spiridonov, G.; Toft, J.; Ruckelshaus, M.; Guerry, A.; Plummer, M.

2011-12-01

Humans obtain numerous benefits from marine ecosystems, including fish to eat; mitigation of storm damage; nutrient and water cycling and primary production; and cultural, aesthetic and recreational values. However, managing these benefits, or ecosystem services, in the marine world relies on an integrated approach that accounts for both marine and watershed activities. Here we present the results of a set of simple, physically-based, and spatially-explicit models that quantify the effects of terrestrial activities on marine ecosystem services. Specifically, we model the circulation and water quality of Hood Canal, WA, USA, a fjord system in Puget Sound where multiple human uses of the nearshore ecosystem (e.g., shellfish aquaculture, recreational Dungeness crab and shellfish harvest) can be compromised when water quality is poor (e.g., hypoxia, excessive non-point source pollution). Linked to the estuarine water quality model is a terrestrial hydrology model that simulates streamflow and nutrient loading, so land cover and climate changes in watersheds can be reflected in the marine environment. In addition, a shellfish aquaculture model is linked to the water quality model to test the sensitivity of the ecosystem service and its value to both terrestrial and marine activities. The modeling framework is general and will be publicly available, allowing easy comparisons of watershed impacts on marine ecosystem services across multiple scales and regions.

Revealing Invisible Water: Moisture Recycling as an Ecosystem Service.

Science.gov (United States)

Keys, Patrick W; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Gordon, Line J

2016-01-01

An ecosystem service is a benefit derived by humanity that can be traced back to an ecological process. Although ecosystem services related to surface water have been thoroughly described, the relationship between atmospheric water and ecosystem services has been mostly neglected, and perhaps misunderstood. Recent advances in land-atmosphere modeling have revealed the importance of terrestrial ecosystems for moisture recycling. In this paper, we analyze the extent to which vegetation sustains the supply of atmospheric moisture and precipitation for downwind beneficiaries, globally. We simulate land-surface evaporation with a global hydrology model and track changes to moisture recycling using an atmospheric moisture budget model, and we define vegetation-regulated moisture recycling as the difference in moisture recycling between current vegetation and a hypothetical desert world. Our results show that nearly a fifth of annual average precipitation falling on land is from vegetation-regulated moisture recycling, but the global variability is large, with many places receiving nearly half their precipitation from this ecosystem service. The largest potential impacts for changes to this ecosystem service are land-use changes across temperate regions in North America and Russia. Likewise, in semi-arid regions reliant on rainfed agricultural production, land-use change that even modestly reduces evaporation and subsequent precipitation, could significantly affect human well-being. We also present a regional case study in the Mato Grosso region of Brazil, where we identify the specific moisture recycling ecosystem services associated with the vegetation in Mato Grosso. We find that Mato Grosso vegetation regulates some internal precipitation, with a diffuse region of benefit downwind, primarily to the south and east, including the La Plata River basin and the megacities of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. We synthesize our global and regional results into a generalized

One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

2013-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of

Producer-decomposer matching in a simple model ecosystem: A network coevolutionary approach to ecosystem organization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higashi, Masahiko; Yamamura, Norio; Nakajima, Hisao; Abe, Takuya

1993-01-01

The present not is concerned with how the ecosystem maintains its energy and matter processes, and how those processes change throughout ecological and geological time, or how the constituent biota of an ecosystem maintain their life, and how ecological (species) succession and biological evolution proceed within an ecosystem. To advance further Tansky's (1976) approach to ecosystem organization, which investigated the characteristic properties of the developmental process of a model ecosystem, by applying Margalef's (1968) maximum maturity principle to derive its long term change, we seek a course for deriving the macroscopic trends along the organization process of an ecosystem as a consequence of the interactions among its biotic components and their modification of ecological traits. Using a simple ecosystem model consisting of four aggregated components (open-quotes compartmentsclose quotes) connected by nutrient flows, we investigate how a change in the value of a parameter alters the network pattern of flows and stocks, even causing a change in the value of another parameter, which in turn brings about further change in the network pattern and values of some (possible original) parameters. The continuation of this chain reaction involving feedbacks constitutes a possible mechanism for the open-quotes coevolutionclose quotes or open-quotes matchingclose quotes among flows, stocks, and parameters

Historical range of variation assessment for wetland and riparian ecosystems, U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region

Science.gov (United States)

Edward Gage; David J. Cooper

2013-01-01

This document provides an overview of historical range of variation concepts and explores their application to wetland and riparian ecosystems in the US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region (Region 2), which includes National Forests and National Grasslands occurring in the states of Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, and South Dakota. For each of five ecosystem...

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ORIENTAL SPRUCE (PICEA ORIENTALIS ECOSYSTEMS IN EASTERN BLACKSEA REGION OF TURKEY

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Aydın Tüfekçioğlu

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Climate change has been getting more attention from scientific community recently. Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey will get significant influences from the climate change according to regional climate model (RegCM3. Oriental spruce (Picea orientalis L. is an important tree species of Turkey and it only grows in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. With the increase in global warming, spruce forests started to have serious bark beetle problems. More than 200 000 trees died in the region recently due to bark beetle attack. We used existing literature related to oriental spruce and future climate of the region and field observations done in the different times to assess current status of the spruce stands. Future climate of the region has been predicted using RegCM3 regional climate model. Climate change could significantly influence distribution, diversity, structure and stability of the oriental spruce ecosystems. According to RegCM3 regional climate model, the temperatures will increase 2-4 °C in the region in the next century. Future climate scenarios predict 200-300 mm increases in precipitation in the eastern part of the region while the western part won't have any increase in precipitation in the next century. Temperature increases in the western part of the region can cause more stress on spruce trees and would probably increase bark beetle attacks. Also, fire could become an important threat in the western part of the region. It is possible to observe 400-800 m upward shift in the spruce belt in the western part. Treeline of spruce stands would probably move upward both in western and eastern part of the North-eastern Blacksea Region.

Analyzing the ecosystem carbon dynamics of four European coniferous forests using a biogeochemistry model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Churkina, G.; Tenhunen, J.; Thornton, P.; Falge, E.; Elbers, J.A.; Erhard, M.; Grünwald, T.; Kowalski, A.; Rannik, Ü.; Sprinz, D.

2003-01-01

This paper provides the first steps toward a regional-scale analysis of carbon (C) budgets. We explore the ability of the ecosystem model BIOME-BGC to estimate the daily and annual C dynamics of four European coniferous forests and shifts in these dynamics in response to changing environmental

Conducting model ecosystem studies in tropical climate zones: Lessons learned from Thailand and way forward

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daam, Michiel A., E-mail: mdaam@isa.utl.pt [Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Technical University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon (Portugal); Van den Brink, Paul J., E-mail: Paul.vandenbrink@wur.nl [Alterra, Wageningen University and Research centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Wageningen University, Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University and Research centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

2011-04-15

Little research has been done so far into the environmental fate and side effects of pesticides in the tropics. In addition, those studies conducted in tropical regions have focused almost exclusively on single species laboratory tests. Hence, fate and effects of pesticides on higher-tier levels have barely been studied under tropical conditions. To address this lack of knowledge, four outdoor aquatic model ecosystem experiments using two different test systems were conducted in Thailand evaluating the insecticide chlorpyrifos, the herbicide linuron and the fungicide carbendazim. Results of these experiments and comparisons of recorded fate and effects with temperate studies have been published previously. The present paper discusses the pros and cons of the methodologies applied and provides indications for i) possible improvements; ii) important aspects that should be considered when performing model ecosystem experiments in the tropics; iii) future research. - Research highlights: > Methodologies used overall seemed adequate to evaluate pesticide stress. > Identification and sampling of tropical macroinvertebrates should be improved. > Additional studies needed for different compounds and greater geographical scale. > Different exposure regimes and ecosystem types should be simulated. > Trophic interrelationship and recovery potential need to be evaluated. - Methodologies for conducting model ecosystem studies in the tropics.

Freshwater Ecosystem Services in Mining Regions: Modelling Options for Policy Development Support

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Daniel Mercado-Garcia

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The ecosystem services (ES approach offers an integrated perspective of social-ecological systems, suitable for holistic assessments of mining impacts. Yet for ES models to be policy-relevant, methodological consensus in mining contexts is needed. We review articles assessing ES in mining areas focusing on freshwater components and policy support potential. Twenty-six articles were analysed concerning (i methodological complexity (data types, number of parameters, processes and ecosystem–human integration level and (ii potential applicability for policy development (communication of uncertainties, scenario simulation, stakeholder participation and management recommendations. Articles illustrate mining impacts on ES through valuation exercises mostly. However, the lack of ground- and surface-water measurements, as well as insufficient representation of the connectivity among soil, water and humans, leave room for improvements. Inclusion of mining-specific environmental stressors models, increasing resolution of topographies, determination of baseline ES patterns and inclusion of multi-stakeholder perspectives are advantageous for policy support. We argue that achieving more holistic assessments exhorts practitioners to aim for high social-ecological connectivity using mechanistic models where possible and using inductive methods only where necessary. Due to data constraints, cause–effect networks might be the most feasible and best solution. Thus, a policy-oriented framework is proposed, in which data science is directed to environmental modelling for analysis of mining impacts on water ES.

Organic carbon storage in four ecosystem types in the karst region of southwestern China.

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Yuguo Liu

Full Text Available Karst ecosystems are important landscape types that cover about 12% of the world's land area. The role of karst ecosystems in the global carbon cycle remains unclear, due to the lack of an appropriate method for determining the thickness of the solum, a representative sampling of the soil and data of organic carbon stocks at the ecosystem level. The karst region in southwestern China is the largest in the world. In this study, we estimated biomass, soil quantity and ecosystem organic carbon stocks in four vegetation types typical of karst ecosystems in this region, shrub grasslands (SG, thorn shrubbery (TS, forest - shrub transition (FS and secondary forest (F. The results showed that the biomass of SG, TS, FS, and F is 0.52, 0.85, 5.9 and 19.2 kg m(-2, respectively and the corresponding organic cabon storage is 0.26, 0.40, 2.83 and 9.09 kg m(-2, respectively. Nevertheless, soil quantity and corresponding organic carbon storage are very small in karst habitats. The quantity of fine earth overlaying the physical weathering zone of the carbonate rock of SG, TS, FS and F is 38.10, 99.24, 29.57 and 61.89 kg m(-2, respectively, while the corresponding organic carbon storage is only 3.34, 4.10, 2.37, 5.25 kg m(-2, respectively. As a whole, ecosystem organic carbon storage of SG, TS, FS, and F is 3.81, 4.72, 5.68 and 15.1 kg m(-2, respectively. These are very low levels compared to other ecosystems in non-karst areas. With the restoration of degraded vegetation, karst ecosystems in southwestern China may play active roles in mitigating the increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.

Marine ecosystem modeling beyond the box: using GIS to study carbon fluxes in a coastal ecosystem.

Science.gov (United States)

Wijnbladh, Erik; Jönsson, Bror Fredrik; Kumblad, Linda

2006-12-01

Studies of carbon fluxes in marine ecosystems are often done by using box model approaches with basin size boxes, or highly resolved 3D models, and an emphasis on the pelagic component of the ecosystem. Those approaches work well in the ocean proper, but can give rise to considerable problems when applied to coastal systems, because of the scale of certain ecological niches and the fact that benthic organisms are the dominant functional group of the ecosystem. In addition, 3D models require an extensive modeling effort. In this project, an intermediate approach based on a high resolution (20x20 m) GIS data-grid has been developed for the coastal ecosystem in the Laxemar area (Baltic Sea, Sweden) based on a number of different site investigations. The model has been developed in the context of a safety assessment project for a proposed nuclear waste repository, in which the fate of hypothetically released radionuclides from the planned repository is estimated. The assessment project requires not only a good understanding of the ecosystem dynamics at the site, but also quantification of stocks and flows of matter in the system. The data-grid was then used to set up a carbon budget describing the spatial distribution of biomass, primary production, net ecosystem production and thus where carbon sinks and sources are located in the area. From these results, it was clear that there was a large variation in ecosystem characteristics within the basins and, on a larger scale, that the inner areas are net producing and the outer areas net respiring, even in shallow phytobenthic communities. Benthic processes had a similar or larger influence on carbon fluxes as advective processes in inner areas, whereas the opposite appears to be true in the outer basins. As many radionuclides are expected to follow the pathways of organic matter in the environment, these findings enhance our abilities to realistically describe and predict their fate in the ecosystem.

Marine Ecosystem Modeling Beyond the Box: Using GIS to Study Carbon Fluxes in a Coastal Ecosystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wijnbladh, Erik; Joensson, Bror Fredrik; Kumblad, Linda

2006-01-01

Studies of carbon fluxes in marine ecosystems are often done by using box model approaches with basin size boxes, or highly resolved 3D models, and an emphasis on the pelagic component of the ecosystem. Those approaches work well in the ocean proper, but can give rise to considerable problems when applied to coastal systems, because of the scale of certain ecological niches and the fact that benthic organisms are the dominant functional group of the ecosystem. In addition, 3D models require an extensive modeling effort. In this project, an intermediate approach based on a high resolution (20x20 m) GIS data-grid has been developed for the coastal ecosystem in the Laxemar area (Baltic Sea, Sweden) based on a number of different site investigations. The model has been developed in the context of a safety assessment project for a proposed nuclear waste repository, in which the fate of hypothetically released radionuclides from the planned repository is estimated. The assessment project requires not only a good understanding of the ecosystem dynamics at the site, but also quantification of stocks and flows of matter in the system. The data-grid was then used to set up a carbon budget describing the spatial distribution of biomass, primary production, net ecosystem production and thus where carbon sinks and sources are located in the area. From these results, it was clear that there was a large variation in ecosystem characteristics within the basins and, on a larger scale, that the inner areas are net producing and the outer areas net respiring, even in shallow phyto benthic communities. Benthic processes had a similar or larger influence on carbon fluxes as advective processes in inner areas, whereas the opposite appears to be true in the outer basins. As many radionuclides are expected to follow the pathways of organic matter in the environment, these findings enhance our abilities to realistically describe and predict their fate in the ecosystem

Modeling and Security in Cloud Ecosystems

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Eduardo B. Fernandez

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Clouds do not work in isolation but interact with other clouds and with a variety of systems either developed by the same provider or by external entities with the purpose to interact with them; forming then an ecosystem. A software ecosystem is a collection of software systems that have been developed to coexist and evolve together. The stakeholders of such a system need a variety of models to give them a perspective of the possibilities of the system, to evaluate specific quality attributes, and to extend the system. A powerful representation when building or using software ecosystems is the use of architectural models, which describe the structural aspects of such a system. These models have value for security and compliance, are useful to build new systems, can be used to define service contracts, find where quality factors can be monitored, and to plan further expansion. We have described a cloud ecosystem in the form of a pattern diagram where its components are patterns and reference architectures. A pattern is an encapsulated solution to a recurrent problem. We have recently expanded these models to cover fog systems and containers. Fog Computing is a highly-virtualized platform that provides compute, storage, and networking services between end devices and Cloud Computing Data Centers; a Software Container provides an execution environment for applications sharing a host operating system, binaries, and libraries with other containers. We intend to use this architecture to answer a variety of questions about the security of this system as well as a reference to design interacting combinations of heterogeneous components. We defined a metamodel to relate security concepts which is being expanded.

Modelling ecosystem service flows under uncertainty with stochiastic SPAN

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Gary W.; Snapp, Robert R.; Villa, Ferdinando; Bagstad, Kenneth J.

2012-01-01

Ecosystem service models are increasingly in demand for decision making. However, the data required to run these models are often patchy, missing, outdated, or untrustworthy. Further, communication of data and model uncertainty to decision makers is often either absent or unintuitive. In this work, we introduce a systematic approach to addressing both the data gap and the difficulty in communicating uncertainty through a stochastic adaptation of the Service Path Attribution Networks (SPAN) framework. The SPAN formalism assesses ecosystem services through a set of up to 16 maps, which characterize the services in a study area in terms of flow pathways between ecosystems and human beneficiaries. Although the SPAN algorithms were originally defined deterministically, we present them here in a stochastic framework which combines probabilistic input data with a stochastic transport model in order to generate probabilistic spatial outputs. This enables a novel feature among ecosystem service models: the ability to spatially visualize uncertainty in the model results. The stochastic SPAN model can analyze areas where data limitations are prohibitive for deterministic models. Greater uncertainty in the model inputs (including missing data) should lead to greater uncertainty expressed in the model’s output distributions. By using Bayesian belief networks to fill data gaps and expert-provided trust assignments to augment untrustworthy or outdated information, we can account for uncertainty in input data, producing a model that is still able to run and provide information where strictly deterministic models could not. Taken together, these attributes enable more robust and intuitive modelling of ecosystem services under uncertainty.

The EBM-DPSER conceptual model: integrating ecosystem services into the DPSIR framework.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher R Kelble

Full Text Available There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society

The EBM-DPSER Conceptual Model: Integrating Ecosystem Services into the DPSIR Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Kelble, Christopher R.; Loomis, Dave K.; Lovelace, Susan; Nuttle, William K.; Ortner, Peter B.; Fletcher, Pamela; Cook, Geoffrey S.; Lorenz, Jerry J.; Boyer, Joseph N.

2013-01-01

There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER) conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society and does so within

Linking remote-sensing and ecosystem services modeling to support and assess management for regenerative grazing in the South Gobi, Mongolia

Science.gov (United States)

Chaplin-Kramer, R.; Kowal, V. A.; Sharp, R.

2017-12-01

Managing and monitoring supply chain sustainability is a major challenge and opportunity for business, especially in rangelands, heavily managed and often degraded natural systems that provide significant resources and raw materials for production. One of the largest and most threatened rangeland systems in the world is in Mongolia, which has seen a rapid rise in grazing pressure due to increasing global demand for cashmere along with privatization of a formerly government-run livestock industry. A new opportunity is emerging for remote-sensing to improve the management decisions of the producers and their incentive-setters, leading to a more sustainable rangeland system and better outcomes for biodiversity and people in this unique and imperiled landscape. Oyu Tolgoi (OT), the Mongolian subsidiary of the mining company Rio Tinto, in cooperation with Kering, an apparel conglomerate that sources cashmere from the region, are providing financial incentives to improve grazing patterns through a Sustainable Cashmere program, in order to restore the degraded rangeland ecosystem in the Gobi desert region. We present a framework and approach for predicting the effect of changing grazing practices on biodiversity and ecosystem services, which we are developing into decision-support tools for OT, Kering, and their local partner Wildlife Conservation Society to quantify the impacts of their programs and where these interventions will have greatest benefit. Our approach integrates remote-sensing and ecosystem modeling to scale up field monitoring data and forecast future impacts. Our rangeland production model, based on the soil-vegetation model CENTURY and the livestock model GRAZPLAN, predicts biomass production and plant species composition changes, and can feed into ecosystem services models such as soil retention and water regulation in the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) software suite. This presents a significant advance in ecosystem

MAPPING ECOSYSTEM SERVICES SUPPLY IN MOUNTAIN REGIONS: A CASE STUDY FROM SOUTH TYROL (ITALY

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U. Schirpke

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Mountain regions provide many ecosystem services and spatially explicit assessments have to account for their specific topographic and climatic conditions. Moreover, it is fundamental to understand synergies and trade-offs of multiple ecosystem services. In this study, ecosystem services supply, including forage production, timber production, water supply, carbon sequestration, soil stability, soil quality, and the aesthetic value, was quantified in bio-physical terms on the landscape scale for South Tyrol. Mean ecosystem services values of the 116 municipalities were grouped in 5 clusters. The results indicate that carbon stock is the prevailing ecosystem service of valley municipalities. On contrast, they suffer from water deficit and depend on water supply from high mountain municipalities. Trade-offs can be also found between the aesthetic value on one hand and timber production, carbon sequestration and soil stability on the other hand. The latter are characteristic for municipalities dominated by forest. The resulting maps can support landscape planning, ecosystem management and conservation of biodiversity.

How models can support ecosystem-based management of coral reefs

Science.gov (United States)

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Janssen, Annette B. G.; Kuiper, Jan J.; Leemans, Rik; Robson, Barbara J.; van de Leemput, Ingrid A.; Mooij, Wolf M.

2015-11-01

Despite the importance of coral reef ecosystems to the social and economic welfare of coastal communities, the condition of these marine ecosystems have generally degraded over the past decades. With an increased knowledge of coral reef ecosystem processes and a rise in computer power, dynamic models are useful tools in assessing the synergistic effects of local and global stressors on ecosystem functions. We review representative approaches for dynamically modeling coral reef ecosystems and categorize them as minimal, intermediate and complex models. The categorization was based on the leading principle for model development and their level of realism and process detail. This review aims to improve the knowledge of concurrent approaches in coral reef ecosystem modeling and highlights the importance of choosing an appropriate approach based on the type of question(s) to be answered. We contend that minimal and intermediate models are generally valuable tools to assess the response of key states to main stressors and, hence, contribute to understanding ecological surprises. As has been shown in freshwater resources management, insight into these conceptual relations profoundly influences how natural resource managers perceive their systems and how they manage ecosystem recovery. We argue that adaptive resource management requires integrated thinking and decision support, which demands a diversity of modeling approaches. Integration can be achieved through complimentary use of models or through integrated models that systemically combine all relevant aspects in one model. Such whole-of-system models can be useful tools for quantitatively evaluating scenarios. These models allow an assessment of the interactive effects of multiple stressors on various, potentially conflicting, management objectives. All models simplify reality and, as such, have their weaknesses. While minimal models lack multidimensionality, system models are likely difficult to interpret as they

Modelling carbon fluxes of forest and grassland ecosystems in Western Europe using the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model: evaluation against eddy covariance data.

Science.gov (United States)

Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; François, Louis; Dury, Marie; Hambuckers, Alain; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Minet, Julien; Tychon, Bernard; Heinesch, Bernard; Horemans, Joanna; Deckmyn, Gaby

2015-04-01

Eddy covariance measurements are an essential resource to understand how ecosystem carbon fluxes react in response to climate change, and to help to evaluate and validate the performance of land surface and vegetation models at regional and global scale. In the framework of the MASC project (« Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate »), vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes of forest and grassland ecosystems simulated by the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) are evaluated and validated by comparison of the model predictions with eddy covariance data. Here carbon fluxes (e.g. net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (RECO)) and evapotranspiration (ET) simulated with the CARAIB model are compared with the fluxes measured at several eddy covariance flux tower sites in Belgium and Western Europe, chosen from the FLUXNET global network (http://fluxnet.ornl.gov/). CARAIB is forced either with surface atmospheric variables derived from the global CRU climatology, or with in situ meteorological data. Several tree (e.g. Pinus sylvestris, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies) and grass species (e.g. Poaceae, Asteraceae) are simulated, depending on the species encountered on the studied sites. The aim of our work is to assess the model ability to reproduce the daily, seasonal and interannual variablility of carbon fluxes and the carbon dynamics of forest and grassland ecosystems in Belgium and Western Europe.

A Satellite-Based Model for Simulating Ecosystem Respiration in the Tibetan and Inner Mongolian Grasslands

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Rong Ge

2018-01-01

Full Text Available It is important to accurately evaluate ecosystem respiration (RE in the alpine grasslands of the Tibetan Plateau and the temperate grasslands of the Inner Mongolian Plateau, as it serves as a sensitivity indicator of regional and global carbon cycles. Here, we combined flux measurements taken between 2003 and 2013 from 16 grassland sites across northern China and the corresponding MODIS land surface temperature (LST, enhanced vegetation index (EVI, and land surface water index (LSWI to build a satellite-based model to estimate RE at a regional scale. First, the dependencies of both spatial and temporal variations of RE on these biotic and climatic factors were examined explicitly. We found that plant productivity and moisture, but not temperature, can best explain the spatial pattern of RE in northern China’s grasslands; while temperature plays a major role in regulating the temporal variability of RE in the alpine grasslands, and moisture is equally as important as temperature in the temperate grasslands. However, the moisture effect on RE and the explicit representation of spatial variation process are often lacking in most of the existing satellite-based RE models. On this basis, we developed a model by comprehensively considering moisture, temperature, and productivity effects on both temporal and spatial processes of RE, and then, we evaluated the model performance. Our results showed that the model well explained the observed RE in both the alpine (R2 = 0.79, RMSE = 0.77 g C m−2 day−1 and temperate grasslands (R2 = 0.75, RMSE = 0.60 g C m−2 day−1. The inclusion of the LSWI as the water-limiting factor substantially improved the model performance in arid and semi-arid ecosystems, and the spatialized basal respiration rate as an indicator for spatial variation largely determined the regional pattern of RE. Finally, the model accurately reproduced the seasonal and inter-annual variations and spatial variability of RE, and it avoided

Activation of the marine ecosystem model 3D CEMBS for the Baltic Sea in operational mode

Science.gov (United States)

Dzierzbicka-Glowacka, Lidia; Jakacki, Jaromir; Janecki, Maciej; Nowicki, Artur

2013-04-01

The paper presents a new marine ecosystem model 3D CEMBS designed for the Baltic Sea. The ecosystem model is incorporated into the 3D POPCICE ocean-ice model. The Current Baltic Sea model is based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM from the National Center for Atmospheric Research) which was adapted for the Baltic Sea as a coupled sea-ice model. It consists of the Community Ice Code (CICE model, version 4.0) and the Parallel Ocean Program (version 2.1). The ecosystem model is a biological submodel of the 3D CEMBS. It consists of eleven mass conservation equations. There are eleven partial second-order differential equations of the diffusion type with the advective term for phytoplankton, zooplankton, nutrients, dissolved oxygen, and dissolved and particulate organic matter. This model is an effective tool for solving the problem of ecosystem bioproductivity. The model is forced by 48-hour atmospheric forecasts provided by the UM model from the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of Warsaw University (ICM). The study was financially supported by the Polish State Committee of Scientific Research (grants: No N N305 111636, N N306 353239). The partial support for this study was also provided by the project Satellite Monitoring of the Baltic Sea Environment - SatBaltyk founded by European Union through European Regional Development Fund contract no. POIG 01.01.02-22-011/09. Calculations were carried out at the Academy Computer Centre in Gdańsk.

Model development of a participatory Bayesian network for coupling ecosystem services into integrated water resources management

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei; Lei, Jiaqiang; Zeng, Fanjiang; Mao, Donglei; Zhang, Zhiwei

2017-11-01

There is an increasing consensus on the importance of coupling ecosystem services (ES) into integrated water resource management (IWRM), due to a wide range of benefits to human from the ES. This paper proposes an ES-based IWRM framework within which a participatory Bayesian network (BN) model is developed to assist with the coupling between ES and IWRM. The framework includes three steps: identifying water-related services of ecosystems; analysis of the tradeoff and synergy among users of water; and ES-based IWRM implementation using the participatory BN model. We present the development, evaluation and application of the participatory BN model with the involvement of four participant groups (stakeholders, water manager, water management experts, and research team) in Qira oasis area, Northwest China. As a typical catchment-scale region, the Qira oasis area is facing severe water competition between the demands of human activities and natural ecosystems. Results demonstrate that the BN model developed provides effective integration of ES into a quantitative IWMR framework via public negotiation and feedback. The network results, sensitivity evaluation, and management scenarios are broadly accepted by the participant groups. The intervention scenarios from the model conclude that any water management measure remains unable to sustain the ecosystem health in water-related ES. Greater cooperation among the stakeholders is highly necessary for dealing with such water conflicts. In particular, a proportion of the agricultural water saved through improving water-use efficiency should be transferred to natural ecosystems via water trade. The BN model developed is appropriate for areas throughout the world in which there is intense competition for water between human activities and ecosystems.

Coupled hydrological, ecological, decision and economic models for monetary valuation of riparian ecosystem services

Science.gov (United States)

Goodrich, D. C.; Brookshire, D.; Broadbent, C.; Dixon, M. D.; Brand, L. A.; Thacher, J.; Benedict, K. K.; Lansey, K. E.; Stromberg, J. C.; Stewart, S.; McIntosh, M.

2011-12-01

Water is a critical component for sustaining both natural and human systems. Yet the value of water for sustaining ecosystem services is not well quantified in monetary terms. Ideally decisions involving water resource management would include an apples-to-apples comparison of the costs and benefits in dollars of both market and non-market goods and services - human and ecosystem. To quantify the value of non-market ecosystem services, scientifically defensible relationships must be developed that link the effect of a decision (e.g. human growth) to the change in ecosystem attributes from current conditions. It is this linkage that requires the "poly-disciplinary" coupling of knowledge and models from the behavioral, physical, and ecological sciences. In our experience another key component of making this successful linkage is development of a strong poly-disciplinary scientific team that can readily communicate complex disciplinary knowledge to non-specialists outside their own discipline. The time to build such a team that communicates well and has a strong sense of trust should not be underestimated. The research described in the presentation incorporated hydrologic, vegetation, avian, economic, and decision models into an integrated framework to determine the value of changes in ecological systems that result from changes in human water use. We developed a hydro-bio-economic framework for the San Pedro River Region in Arizona that considers groundwater, stream flow, and riparian vegetation, as well as abundance, diversity, and distribution of birds. In addition, we developed a similar framework for the Middle Rio Grande of New Mexico. There are six research components for this project: (1) decision support and scenario specification, (2) regional groundwater model, (3) the riparian vegetation model, (4) the avian model, (5) methods for displaying the information gradients in the valuation survey instruments (Choice Modeling and Contingent Valuation), and (6

The evolution of ecosystem ascendency in a complex systems based model.

Science.gov (United States)

Brinck, Katharina; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

2017-09-07

General patterns in ecosystem development can shed light on driving forces behind ecosystem formation and recovery and have been of long interest. In recent years, the need for integrative and process oriented approaches to capture ecosystem growth, development and organisation, as well as the scope of information theory as a descriptive tool has been addressed from various sides. However data collection of ecological network flows is difficult and tedious and comprehensive models are lacking. We use a hierarchical version of the Tangled Nature Model of evolutionary ecology to study the relationship between structure, flow and organisation in model ecosystems, their development over evolutionary time scales and their relation to ecosystem stability. Our findings support the validity of ecosystem ascendency as a meaningful measure of ecosystem organisation, which increases over evolutionary time scales and significantly drops during periods of disturbance. The results suggest a general trend towards both higher integrity and increased stability driven by functional and structural ecosystem coadaptation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Making eco logic and models work : An integrative approach to lake ecosystem modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

2016-01-01

Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both

Changes in the structure and function of northern Alaskan ecosystems when considering variable leaf-out times across groupings of species in a dynamic vegetation model

Science.gov (United States)

Euskirchen, E.S.; Carman, T.B.; McGuire, Anthony David

2013-01-01

The phenology of arctic ecosystems is driven primarily by abiotic forces, with temperature acting as the main determinant of growing season onset and leaf budburst in the spring. However, while the plant species in arctic ecosystems require differing amounts of accumulated heat for leaf-out, dynamic vegetation models simulated over regional to global scales typically assume some average leaf-out for all of the species within an ecosystem. Here, we make use of air temperature records and observations of spring leaf phenology collected across dominant groupings of species (dwarf birch shrubs, willow shrubs, other deciduous shrubs, grasses, sedges, and forbs) in arctic and boreal ecosystems in Alaska. We then parameterize a dynamic vegetation model based on these data for four types of tundra ecosystems (heath tundra, shrub tundra, wet sedge tundra, and tussock tundra), as well as ecotonal boreal white spruce forest, and perform model simulations for the years 1970 -2100. Over the course of the model simulations, we found changes in ecosystem composition under this new phenology algorithm compared to simulations with the previous phenology algorithm. These changes were the result of the differential timing of leaf-out, as well as the ability for the groupings of species to compete for nitrogen and light availability. Regionally, there were differences in the trends of the carbon pools and fluxes between the new phenology algorithm and the previous phenology algorithm, although these differences depended on the future climate scenario. These findings indicate the importance of leaf phenology data collection by species and across the various ecosystem types within the highly heterogeneous Arctic landscape, and that dynamic vegetation models should consider variation in leaf-out by groupings of species within these ecosystems to make more accurate projections of future plant distributions and carbon cycling in Arctic regions.

How important is diversity for capturing environmental-change responses in ecosystem models?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Prowe, Friederike; Pahlow, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

2014-01-01

Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic plankton diversity. Diversity, however, may affect functions such as primary production and their sensitivity to environmental changes. Here we use a global ocean...... ecosystem model that explicitly resolves phytoplankton diversity by defining subtypes within four phytoplankton functional types (PFTs). We investigate the model's ability to capture diversity effects on primary production under environmental change. An idealized scenario with a sudden reduction in vertical...... in the model, for example via trade-offs or different PFTs, thus determines the diversity effects on ecosystem functioning captured in ocean ecosystem models....

The use of spatial empirical models to estimate soil erosion in arid ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdullah, Meshal; Feagin, Rusty; Musawi, Layla

2017-02-01

The central objective of this project was to utilize geographical information systems and remote sensing to compare soil erosion models, including Modified Pacific South-west Inter Agency Committee (MPSIAC), Erosion Potential Method (EPM), and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), and to determine their applicability for arid regions such as Kuwait. The northern portion of Umm Nigga, containing both coastal and desert ecosystems, falls within the boundaries of the de-militarized zone (DMZ) adjacent to Iraq and has been fenced off to restrict public access since 1994. Results showed that the MPSIAC and EPM models were similar in spatial distribution of erosion, though the MPSIAC had a more realistic spatial distribution of erosion and presented finer level details. The RUSLE presented unrealistic results. We then predicted the amount of soil loss between coastal and desert areas and fenced and unfenced sites for each model. In the MPSIAC and EPM models, soil loss was different between fenced and unfenced sites at the desert areas, which was higher at the unfenced due to the low vegetation cover. The overall results implied that vegetation cover played an important role in reducing soil erosion and that fencing is much more important in the desert ecosystems to protect against human activities such as overgrazing. We conclude that the MPSIAC model is best for predicting soil erosion for arid regions such as Kuwait. We also recommend the integration of field-based experiments with lab-based spatial analysis and modeling in future research.

Modeling Temporal and Spatial Flows of Ecosystem Services in Chittenden County, VT

Science.gov (United States)

Voigt, B. G.; Bagstad, K.; Johnson, G.; Villa, F.

2010-12-01

This paper documents the integration of ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services) with the land use change model UrbanSim to explore the impacts of current and future land use patterns on flood protection and water provision services in Chittenden County, VT. ARIES, an open source modeling platform, is particularly well-suited for measuring, mapping, and modeling the temporal and spatial flows of ecosystem services across the landscape, linking the areas of provision (sources) with human beneficiaries (users) through a spatially explicit agent-based modeling approach. UrbanSim is an open source agent-based land use model designed to facilitate a wide-range of scenarios based on user-specified behavioral assumptions, zoning regulations, and demographic, economic, and infrastructure (e.g. transportation, water, sewer, etc.) parameters. Ecosystem services travel through time and space and are susceptible to disruption and destruction from both natural and anthropogenic perturbations. The conversion of forested or agricultural land to urbanizing uses is replete with a long history of hydrologic impairment, habitat fragmentation, and the degradation of sensitive landscapes. Development decisions are predicated on the presence of landscape characteristics that meet the needs of developers and satisfy the desires of consumers, with minimal consideration of access to or effect on the provision of ecosystem services. The County houses nearly 25% of the state’s population and several employment centers that draw labor from throughout the region. Additionally, the County is expected to maintain modest residential and employment growth over the next 30 years, and will continue to serve as the state’s population and employment center. Expected future growth is likely to adversely affect the remaining farm and forest land in the County in the absence of policies to support sustainable development. We demonstrate how ARIES can be used to quantify changes in

New Possibilities for High-Resolution, Large-Scale Ecosystem Assessment of the World's Semi-Arid Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Burney, J. A.; Goldblatt, R.

2016-12-01

Understanding drivers of land use change - and in particular, levels of ecosystem degradation - in semi-arid regions is of critical importance because these agroecosystems (1) are home to the world's poorest populations, almost all of whom depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, (2) play a critical role in the global carbon and climate cycles, and (3) have in many cases seen dramatic changes in temperature and precipitation, relative to global averages, over the past several decades. However, assessing ecosystem health (or, conversely, degradation) presents a difficult measurement problem. Established methods are very labor intensive and rest on detailed questionnaires and field assessments. High-resolution satellite imagery has a unique role semi-arid ecosystem assessment in that it can be used for rapid (or repeated) and very simple measurements of tree and shrub density, an excellent overall indicator for dryland ecosystem health. Because trees and large shrubs are more sparse in semi-arid regions, sub-meter resolution imagery in conjunction with automated image analysis can be used to assess density differences at high spatial resolution without expensive and time-consuming ground-truthing. This could be used down to the farm level, for example, to better assess the larger-scale ecosystem impacts of different management practices, to assess compliance with REDD+ carbon offset protocols, or to evaluate implementation of conservation goals. Here we present results comparing spatial and spectral remote sensing methods for semi-arid ecosystem assessment across new data sources, using the Brazilian Sertão as an example, and the implications for large-scale use in semi-arid ecosystem science.

Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Mooij, Wolf M.; Trolle, Dennis; Jeppesen, Erik; Arhonditsis, George; Belolipetsky, Pavel V.; Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B.R.; Degermendzhy, Andrey G.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Domis, Lisette N. De Senerpont; Downing, Andrea S.; Elliott, J. Alex; Ruberto, Carlos Ruberto; Gaedke, Ursula; Genova, Svetlana N.; Gulati, Ramesh D.; Hakanson, Lars; Hamilton, David P.; Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hoen, Jochem 't; Hulsmann, Stephan; Los, F. Hans; Makler-Pick, Vardit; Petzoldt, Thomas; Prokopkin, Igor G.; Rinke, Karsten; Schep, Sebastiaan A.; Tominaga, Koji; Van Dam, Anne A.; Van Nes, Egbert H.; Wells, Scott A.; Janse, Jan H.

2010-01-01

A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative

Optimized estimation and its uncertainties of gross primary production over oasis-desert ecosystems in an arid region of China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, H.; Li, X.; Xiao, J.; Ma, M.

2017-12-01

Arid and semi-arid ecosystems cover more than one-third of the Earth's land surface, it is of great important to the global carbon cycle. However, the magnitude of carbon sequestration and its contribution to global atmospheric carbon cycle is poorly understood due to the worldwide paucity of measurements of carbon exchange in the arid ecosystems. Accurate and continuous monitoring the production of arid ecosystem is of great importance for regional carbon cycle estimation. The MOD17A2 product provides high frequency observations of terrestrial Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) over the world. Although there have been plenty of studies to validate the MODIS GPP products with ground based measurements over a range of biome types, few have comprehensively validated the performance of MODIS estimates in arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Thus, this study examined the performance of the MODIS-derived GPP comparing with the EC observed GPP at different timescales for the main arid ecosystems in the arid and semi-arid ecosystems in China, and optimized the performance of the MODIS GPP calculations by using the in-situ metrological forcing data, and optimization of biome-specific parameters with the Bayesian approach. Our result revealed that the MOD17 algorithm could capture the broad trends of GPP at 8-day time scales for all investigated sites on the whole. However, the GPP product was underestimated in most ecosystems in the arid region, especially the irrigated cropland and forest ecosystems, while the desert ecosystem was overestimated in the arid region. On the annual time scale, the best performance was observed in grassland and cropland, followed by forest and desert ecosystems. On the 8-day timescale, the RMSE between MOD17 products and in-situ flux observations of all sites was 2.22 gC/m2/d, and R2 was 0.69. By using the in-situ metrological data driven, optimizing the biome-based parameters of the algorithm, we improved the performances of the MODIS GPP calculation

Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO sub 2 and climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

1992-03-01

While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth's surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society's ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

1992-03-01

While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth`s surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society`s ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

A blueprint for mapping and modelling ecosystem services

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Crossman, N.; Burkhard, B.; Nedkov, S.; Willemen, L.L.J.; Petz, K.; Palomo, I.; Drakou, E.G.; Martín-Lopez, B.; McPhearson, T.; Boyanova, K.; Alkemade, R.; Egoh, B.; Dunbar, M.D.; Maes, J.

2013-01-01

The inconsistency in methods to quantify and map ecosystem services challenges the development of robust values of ecosystem services in national accounts and broader policy and natural resource management decision-making. In this paper we develop and test a blueprint to give guidance on modelling

Modeling dynamics of biological and chemical components of aquatic ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lassiter, R.R.

1975-05-01

To provide capability to model aquatic ecosystems or their subsystems as needed for particular research goals, a modeling strategy was developed. Submodels of several processes common to aquatic ecosystems were developed or adapted from previously existing ones. Included are submodels for photosynthesis as a function of light and depth, biological growth rates as a function of temperature, dynamic chemical equilibrium, feeding and growth, and various types of losses to biological populations. These submodels may be used as modules in the construction of models of subsystems or ecosystems. A preliminary model for the nitrogen cycle subsystem was developed using the modeling strategy and applicable submodels. (U.S.)

Biomass burning emissions of reactive gases estimated from satellite data analysis and ecosystem modeling for the Brazilian Amazon region

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, Christopher; Brooks-Genovese, Vanessa; Klooster, Steven; Torregrosa, Alicia

2002-10-01

To produce a new daily record of trace gas emissions from biomass burning events for the Brazilian Legal Amazon, we have combined satellite advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data on fire counts together for the first time with vegetation greenness imagery as inputs to an ecosystem biomass model at 8 km spatial resolution. This analysis goes beyond previous estimates for reactive gas emissions from Amazon fires, owing to a more detailed geographic distribution estimate of vegetation biomass, coupled with daily fire activity for the region (original 1 km resolution), and inclusion of fire effects in extensive areas of the Legal Amazon (defined as the Brazilian states of Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Maranhao, Mato Grosso, Pará, Rondônia, Roraima, and Tocantins) covered by open woodland, secondary forests, savanna, and pasture vegetation. Results from our emissions model indicate that annual emissions from Amazon deforestation and biomass burning in the early 1990s total to 102 Tg yr-1 carbon monoxide (CO) and 3.5 Tg yr-1 nitrogen oxides (NOx). Peak daily burning emissions, which occurred in early September 1992, were estimated at slightly more than 3 Tg d-1for CO and 0.1 Tg d-1for NOx flux to the atmosphere. Other burning source fluxes of gases with relatively high emission factors are reported, including methane (CH4), nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC), and sulfur dioxide (SO2), in addition to total particulate matter (TPM). We estimate the Brazilian Amazon region to be a source of between one fifth and one third for each of these global emission fluxes to the atmosphere. The regional distribution of burning emissions appears to be highest in the Brazilian states of Maranhao and Tocantins, mainly from burning outside of moist forest areas, and in Pará and Mato Grosso, where we identify important contributions from primary forest cutting and burning. These new daily emission estimates of reactive gases from biomass burning fluxes are designed to be used as

Detecting ecosystem performance anomalies for land management in the upper colorado river basin using satellite observations, climate data, and ecosystem models

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, B.K.

2010-01-01

This study identifies areas with ecosystem performance anomalies (EPA) within the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) during 2005-2007 using satellite observations, climate data, and ecosystem models. The final EPA maps with 250-m spatial resolution were categorized as normal performance, underperformance, and overperformance (observed performance relative to weather-based predictions) at the 90% level of confidence. The EPA maps were validated using "percentage of bare soil" ground observations. The validation results at locations with comparable site potential showed that regions identified as persistently underperforming (overperforming) tended to have a higher (lower) percentage of bare soil, suggesting that our preliminary EPA maps are reliable and agree with ground-based observations. The 3-year (2005-2007) persistent EPA map from this study provides the first quantitative evaluation of ecosystem performance anomalies within the UCRB and will help the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) identify potentially degraded lands. Results from this study can be used as a prototype by BLM and other land managers for making optimal land management decisions. ?? 2010 by the authors.

Integrated modelling of ecosystem services and energy systems research

Science.gov (United States)

Agarwala, Matthew; Lovett, Andrew; Bateman, Ian; Day, Brett; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ziv, Guy

2016-04-01

The UK Government is formally committed to reducing carbon emissions and protecting and improving natural capital and the environment. However, actually delivering on these objectives requires an integrated approach to addressing two parallel challenges: de-carbonising future energy system pathways; and safeguarding natural capital to ensure the continued flow of ecosystem services. Although both emphasise benefiting from natural resources, efforts to connect natural capital and energy systems research have been limited, meaning opportunities to improve management of natural resources and meet society's energy needs could be missed. The ecosystem services paradigm provides a consistent conceptual framework that applies in multiple disciplines across the natural and economic sciences, and facilitates collaboration between them. At the forefront of the field, integrated ecosystem service - economy models have guided public- and private-sector decision making at all levels. Models vary in sophistication from simple spreadsheet tools to complex software packages integrating biophysical, GIS and economic models and draw upon many fields, including ecology, hydrology, geography, systems theory, economics and the social sciences. They also differ in their ability to value changes in natural capital and ecosystem services at various spatial and temporal scales. Despite these differences, current models share a common feature: their treatment of energy systems is superficial at best. In contrast, energy systems research has no widely adopted, unifying conceptual framework that organises thinking about key system components and interactions. Instead, the literature is organised around modelling approaches, including life cycle analyses, econometric investigations, linear programming and computable general equilibrium models. However, some consistencies do emerge. First, often contain a linear set of steps, from exploration to resource supply, fuel processing, conversion

Denitrification in the Arabian Sea: A 3D ecosystem modelling study

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Thomas R.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.; Fasham, Michael J. R.; Gorchakov, Victor A.

2007-12-01

A three-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecosystem model was used to examine the factors determining the spatio-temporal distribution of denitrification in the Arabian Sea. The ecosystem model includes carbon and nitrogen as currencies, cycling of organic matter via detritus and dissolved organic matter, and both remineralization and denitrification as sinks for material exported below the euphotic zone. Model results captured the marked seasonality in plankton dynamics of the region, with characteristic blooms of chlorophyll in the coastal upwelling regions and central Arabian Sea during the southwest monsoon, and also in the northern Arabian Sea during the northeast monsoon as the mixed layer shoals. Predicted denitrification was 26.2 Tg N yr -1,the greatest seasonal contribution being during the northeast monsoon when primary production is co-located with the zone of anoxia. Detritus was the primary organic substrate consumed in denitrification (97%), with a small (3%) contribution by dissolved organic matter. Denitrification in the oxygen minimum zone was predicted to be fuelled almost entirely by organic matter supplied by particles sinking vertically from the euphotic zone above (0.73 mmol N m -2 d -1) rather than from lateral transport of organic matter from elsewhere in the Arabian Sea (less than 0.01 mmol N m -2 d -1). Analysis of the carbon budget in the zone of denitrification (north of 10°N and east of 55°E) indicates that the modelled vertical export flux of detritus, which is similar in magnitude to estimates from field data based on the 234Th method, is sufficient to account for measured bacterial production below the euphotic zone in the Arabian Sea.

A probabilistic model of ecosystem response to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shevliakova, E.; Dowlatabadi, H.

1994-01-01

Anthropogenic activities are leading to rapid changes in land cover and emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These changes can bring about climate change typified by average global temperatures rising by 1--5 C over the next century. Climate change of this magnitude is likely to alter the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems on a large scale. Options available for dealing with such change are abatement of emissions, adaptation, and geoengineering. The integrated assessment of climate change demands that frameworks be developed where all the elements of the climate problem are present (from economic activity to climate change and its impacts on market and non-market goods and services). Integrated climate assessment requires multiple impact metrics and multi-attribute utility functions to simulate the response of different key actors/decision-makers to the actual physical impacts (rather than a dollar value) of the climate-damage vs. policy-cost debate. This necessitates direct modeling of ecosystem impacts of climate change. The authors have developed a probabilistic model of ecosystem response to global change. This model differs from previous efforts in that it is statistically estimated using actual ecosystem and climate data yielding a joint multivariate probability of prevalence for each ecosystem, given climatic conditions. The authors expect this approach to permit simulation of inertia and competition which have, so far, been absent in transfer models of continental-scale ecosystem response to global change. Thus, although the probability of one ecotype will dominate others at a given point, others would have the possibility of establishing an early foothold

A multi-objective constraint-based approach for modeling genome-scale microbial ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Budinich, Marko; Bourdon, Jérémie; Larhlimi, Abdelhalim; Eveillard, Damien

2017-01-01

Interplay within microbial communities impacts ecosystems on several scales, and elucidation of the consequent effects is a difficult task in ecology. In particular, the integration of genome-scale data within quantitative models of microbial ecosystems remains elusive. This study advocates the use of constraint-based modeling to build predictive models from recent high-resolution -omics datasets. Following recent studies that have demonstrated the accuracy of constraint-based models (CBMs) for simulating single-strain metabolic networks, we sought to study microbial ecosystems as a combination of single-strain metabolic networks that exchange nutrients. This study presents two multi-objective extensions of CBMs for modeling communities: multi-objective flux balance analysis (MO-FBA) and multi-objective flux variability analysis (MO-FVA). Both methods were applied to a hot spring mat model ecosystem. As a result, multiple trade-offs between nutrients and growth rates, as well as thermodynamically favorable relative abundances at community level, were emphasized. We expect this approach to be used for integrating genomic information in microbial ecosystems. Following models will provide insights about behaviors (including diversity) that take place at the ecosystem scale.

Modelling the growth of Populus species using Ecosystem Demography (ED) model

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, D.; Lebauer, D. S.; Feng, X.; Dietze, M. C.

2010-12-01

Hybrid poplar plantations are an important source being evaluated for biomass production. Effective management of such plantations requires adequate growth and yield models. The Ecosystem Demography model (ED) makes predictions about the large scales of interest in above- and belowground ecosystem structure and the fluxes of carbon and water from a description of the fine-scale physiological processes. In this study, we used a workflow management tool, the Predictive Ecophysiological Carbon flux Analyzer (PECAn), to integrate literature data, field measurement and the ED model to provide predictions of ecosystem functioning. Parameters for the ED ensemble runs were sampled from the posterior distribution of ecophysiological traits of Populus species compiled from the literature using a Bayesian meta-analysis approach. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the parameters which contribute the most to the uncertainties of the ED model output. Model emulation techniques were used to update parameter posterior distributions using field-observed data in northern Wisconsin hybrid poplar plantations. Model results were evaluated with 5-year field-observed data in a hybrid poplar plantation at New Franklin, MO. ED was then used to predict the spatial variability of poplar yield in the coterminous United States (United States minus Alaska and Hawaii). Sensitivity analysis showed that root respiration, dark respiration, growth respiration, stomatal slope and specific leaf area contribute the most to the uncertainty, which suggests that our field measurements and data collection should focus on these parameters. The ED model successfully captured the inter-annual and spatial variability of the yield of poplar. Analyses in progress with the ED model focus on evaluating the ecosystem services of short-rotation woody plantations, such as impacts on soil carbon storage, water use, and nutrient retention.

Modelling Potential Consequences of Different Geo-Engineering Treatments for the Baltic Sea Ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Schrum, C.; Daewel, U.

2017-12-01

From 1950 onwards, the Baltic Sea ecosystem suffered increasingly from eutrophication. The most obvious reason for the eutrophication is the huge amount of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) reaching the Baltic Sea from human activities. However, although nutrient loads have been decreasing since 1980, the hypoxic areas have not decreased accordingly. Thus, geo-engineering projects were discussed and evaluated to artificially ventilate the Baltic Sea deep water and suppress nutrient release from the sediments. Here, we aim at understanding the consequences of proposed geo-engineering projects in the Baltic Sea using long-term scenario modelling. For that purpose, we utilize a 3d coupled ecosystem model ECOSMO E2E, a novel NPZD-Fish model approach that resolves hydrodynamics, biogeochemical cycling and lower and higher trophic level dynamics. We performed scenario modelling that consider proposed geo-engineering projects such as artificial ventilation of Baltic Sea deep waters and phosphorus binding in sediments with polyaluminium chlorides. The model indicates that deep-water ventilation indeed suppresses phosphorus release in the first 1-4 years of treatment. Thereafter macrobenthos repopulates the formerly anoxic bottom regions and nutrients are increasingly recycled in the food web. Consequently, overall system productivity and fish biomass increases and toxic algae blooms decrease. However, deep-water ventilation has no long-lasting effect on the ecosystem: soon after completion of the ventilation process, the system turns back into its original state. Artificial phosphorus binding in sediments in contrast decreases overall ecosystem productivity through permanent removal of phosphorus. As expected it decreases bacterial production and toxic algae blooms, but it also decreases fish production substantially. Contrastingly to deep water ventilation, artificial phosphorus binding show a long-lasting effect over decades after termination of the treatment.

Ecosystem Services Evaluation and Its Spatial Characteristics in Central Asia’s Arid Regions: A Case Study in Altay Prefecture, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qi Fu

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Ecosystem services are important foundations to realize the sustainable development of economy and society. The question of how to quantitatively evaluate ecosystem services in a scientific way is a hot topic among international researchers. Studying the spatial characteristics of ecosystem services in arid regions can provide the theoretical and practical basis for coordinating a sustainable man-land relationship. Altay Prefecture of China, a typical arid region in Central Asia, was taken as the study area. It is on the Silk Road economic belt, which is a key region in the program of developing Western China. Three ecosystem services: water yield, soil conservation, and net primary productivity were quantitatively evaluated. The results show that (1 the spatial distribution pattern has a distinct characteristic of zonality; (2 mountain zone and mountain-oasis ecotone are the hotspots of ecosystem services; and (3 the correlation between water yield and net primary productivity shows a gradual increasing trend as altitude decreases. Objective analysis from the aspect of mechanism is given by discussing the causes of this particular pattern. It is found that altitude and slope have great influence on spatial distributions of ecosystem services, zones with the most amount of services are distributed in 1.5–2 km-altitude and 15–25°-slope. Different human activities in different regions and spatial distance decay of ecosystem services also contribute to the formation of spatial pattern. Thus, overgrazing, logging and mining are prohibited in mountain zones and mountain-oasis ecotones. Scholars are encouraged to focus on desert-ecosystem services in the future.

The Port Service Ecosystem Research Based on the Lotka-Volterra Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Wenjuan

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Under the new normal of China’s economy, the competition among the port enterprises is not only the competition of the core competence of the port, the port industry chain or the port supply chain, but also the competition of the port service ecosystem. In this paper, the concept and characteristics of the port service ecosystem is discussed, a hierarchical model of the port service ecosystem is constructed. As an extended logistic model, Lotka-Volterra model is applied to study the competitive co-evolution and mutually beneficial co-evolution of enterprises in the port service ecosystem. This paper simulates the co-evolution of enterprises in the port service ecosystem by using MATLAB programming. The simulation results show that the breadth of the niche of the enterprises is changing with the change of the competition coefficient and the coefficient of mutual benefit in the port service ecosystem. Based on that, some proposals are put forward to ensure the healthy and orderly development of the port service ecosystem.

Simulations of ecosystem hydrological processes using a unified multi-scale model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Xiaofan; Liu, Chongxuan; Fang, Yilin; Hinkle, Ross; Li, Hong-Yi; Bailey, Vanessa; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

2015-01-01

This paper presents a unified multi-scale model (UMSM) that we developed to simulate hydrological processes in an ecosystem containing both surface water and groundwater. The UMSM approach modifies the Navier–Stokes equation by adding a Darcy force term to formulate a single set of equations to describe fluid momentum and uses a generalized equation to describe fluid mass balance. The advantage of the approach is that the single set of the equations can describe hydrological processes in both surface water and groundwater where different models are traditionally required to simulate fluid flow. This feature of the UMSM significantly facilitates modelling of hydrological processes in ecosystems, especially at locations where soil/sediment may be frequently inundated and drained in response to precipitation, regional hydrological and climate changes. In this paper, the UMSM was benchmarked using WASH123D, a model commonly used for simulating coupled surface water and groundwater flow. Disney Wilderness Preserve (DWP) site at the Kissimmee, Florida, where active field monitoring and measurements are ongoing to understand hydrological and biogeochemical processes, was then used as an example to illustrate the UMSM modelling approach. The simulations results demonstrated that the DWP site is subject to the frequent changes in soil saturation, the geometry and volume of surface water bodies, and groundwater and surface water exchange. All the hydrological phenomena in surface water and groundwater components including inundation and draining, river bank flow, groundwater table change, soil saturation, hydrological interactions between groundwater and surface water, and the migration of surface water and groundwater interfaces can be simultaneously simulated using the UMSM. Overall, the UMSM offers a cross-scale approach that is particularly suitable to simulate coupled surface and ground water flow in ecosystems with strong surface water and groundwater interactions.

[Measuring water ecological carrying capacity with the ecosystem-service-based ecological footprint (ESEF) method: Theory, models and application].

Science.gov (United States)

Jiao, Wen-jun; Min, Qing-wen; Li, Wen-hua; Fuller, Anthony M

2015-04-01

Integrated watershed management based on aquatic ecosystems has been increasingly acknowledged. Such a change in the philosophy of water environment management requires recognizing the carrying capacity of aquatic ecosystems for human society from a more general perspective. The concept of the water ecological carrying capacity is therefore put forward, which considers both water resources and water environment, connects socio-economic development to aquatic ecosystems and provides strong support for integrated watershed management. In this paper, the authors proposed an ESEF-based measure of water ecological carrying capacity and constructed ESEF-based models of water ecological footprint and capacity, aiming to evaluate water ecological carrying capacity with footprint methods. A regional model of Taihu Lake Basin was constructed and applied to evaluate the water ecological carrying capacity in Changzhou City which located in the upper reaches of the basin. Results showed that human demand for water ecosystem services in this city had exceeded the supply capacity of local aquatic ecosystems and the significant gap between demand and supply had jeopardized the sustainability of local aquatic ecosystems. Considering aqua-product provision, water supply and pollutant absorption in an integrated way, the scale of population and economy aquatic ecosystems in Changzhou could bear only 54% of the current status.

Socioeconomic influences on biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being: a quantitative application of the DPSIR model in Jiangsu, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Ying; Zhou, Shudong; Burkhard, Benjamin; Müller, Felix

2014-08-15

One focus of ecosystem service research is the connection between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being as well as the socioeconomic influences on them. Despite existing investigations, exact impacts from the human system on the dynamics of biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being are still uncertain because of the insufficiency of the respective quantitative analyses. Our research aims are discerning the socioeconomic influences on biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being and demonstrating mutual impacts between these items. We propose a DPSIR framework coupling ecological integrity, ecosystem services as well as human well-being and suggest DPSIR indicators for the case study area Jiangsu, China. Based on available statistical and surveying data, we revealed the factors significantly impacting biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being in the research area through factor analysis and correlation analysis, using the 13 prefecture-level cities of Jiangsu as samples. The results show that urbanization and industrialization in the urban areas have predominant positive influences on regional biodiversity, agricultural productivity and tourism services as well as rural residents' living standards. Additionally, the knowledge, technology and finance inputs for agriculture also have generally positive impacts on these system components. Concerning regional carbon storage, non-cropland vegetation cover obviously plays a significant positive role. Contrarily, the expansion of farming land and the increase of total food production are two important negative influential factors of biodiversity, ecosystem's food provisioning service capacity, regional tourism income and the well-being of the rural population. Our study provides a promising approach based on the DPSIR model to quantitatively capture the socioeconomic influential factors of biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being for human-environmental systems

ESTIMAP: Ecosystem services mapping at European scale

OpenAIRE

ZULIAN GRAZIA; PARACCHINI Maria-Luisa; MAES JOACHIM; LIQUETE GARCIA MARIA DEL CAMINO

2013-01-01

Mapping, visualization and the access to suitable data as a means to facilitate the dialogue among scientists, policy makers and the general public are among the most challenging issues within current ecosystem service science and application. Recently the attention on spatially explicit ways to map ecosystem services, at local, regional and global scale is increasing. This report presents ESTIMAP: a suite of models for a spatially explicit assessment of three ecosystem services (recreati...

Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

2010-12-14

This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

Nitrogen controls on ecosystem carbon sequestration: a model implementation and application to Saskatchewan, Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, J.; Price, D.T.; Chen, J.M.

2005-01-01

A plant–soil nitrogen (N) cycling model was developed and incorporated into the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) of Foley et al. [Foley, J.A., Prentice, I.C., Ramankutty, N., Levis, S., Pollard, D., Sitch, S., Haxeltine, A., 1996. An integrated biosphere model of land surface process, terrestrial carbon balance and vegetation dynamics. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 603–628]. In the N-model, soil mineral N regulates ecosystem carbon (C) fluxes and ecosystem C:N ratios. Net primary productivity (NPP) is controlled by feedbacks from both leaf C:N and soil mineral N. Leaf C:N determines the foliar and canopy photosynthesis rates, while soil mineral N determines the N availability for plant growth and the efficiency of biomass construction. Nitrogen controls on the decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) are implemented through N immobilization and mineralization separately. The model allows greater SOM mineralization at lower mineral N, and conversely, allows greater N immobilization at higher mineral N. The model's seasonal and inter-annual behaviours are demonstrated. A regional simulation for Saskatchewan, Canada, was performed for the period 1851–2000 at a 10 km × 10 km resolution. Simulated NPP was compared with high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) NPP estimated from remote sensing data using the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) [Liu, J., Chen, J.M., Cihlar, J., Park, W.M., 1997. A process-based boreal ecosystem productivity simulator using remote sensing inputs. Remote Sens. Environ. 44, 81–87]. The agreement between IBIS and BEPS, particularly in NPP spatial variation, was considerably improved when the N controls were introduced into IBIS.

Outdoor model simulating a Baltic Sea littoral ecosystem

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Notini, M; Nagell, B; Hagstroem, A; Grahn, O

1977-01-01

Plastic pools (surface 6.6 m/sup 2/, volume 4.2 m/sup 3/) were equipped with a flow-through system providing 2.51 min/sup -1/. Except for fish predators the main components of the flora and fauna of the Baltic littoral zone were introduced into the pools to form a model of the ecosystem. During 8 weeks the macroscopic epifauna and infauna of the bladder wrack Fucus vesiculosus L. were found to be qualitatively and quantitatively fairly stable, and the number of aerobic heterotrophic bacteria showed little variation. Oxygen concentration, temperature and pH were recorded and compared with values measured in the littoral zone. The results indicate good agreement between the characters of the model system and of the natural littoral ecosystem. This together with the observed stability and the possibilities for controlling and measuring the conditions in the system makes us believe that the model is a valuable tool for assessing toxic effects on the littoral ecosystem.

Ecological effects of ionizing radiation on population and ecosystem: a computational model ecosystem study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doi, Masahiro; Fuma, Shoichi; Ishii, Nobuyuki; Sakashita, Tetsuya; Miyamoto, Kiriko; Takeda, Hiroshi; Kawabata, Zenichiro

2003-01-01

Ecosystem is a self-sustaining system of complexity, and their responses to the impacts are synergistic and subjected to the demographic stochasticity of the species, environmental stochasticity and randomness. Environmental fate and effects of radiation has ranged from observable DNA damage of the cell to the fare on tissues, individual, population, community and ecosystems. The quantitative, systematic individual-based model, SIM-COSM was developed to simulate impacts of radiation exposure and other toxicants on an aquatic microbial ecosystem (microcosm). The microcosm consists of heterotroph ciliate protozoa (Tetrahymena thermophila B) as a consumer, autotroph flagellate algae (Euglena gracilis Z) as a producer and saprotroph bacteria (Escherichia coli DH5) as a decomposer. The symbiosis among microbes is self-organized by realizing material cycle and sustained for more than 2 years after inoculation. The system can not afford to lose any one of the microbes to maintain its sustainability. Experimental ecotoxicological tests for (a) gamma radiation, (b) Manganese ions and (c) Gadolinium are summarized. Population dynamics of microbes in Microcosm and its computer simulations by SIM-COSM are shown together in a figure. Population dynamics in Microcosm and SIM-COSM exposed to 500 Gy of gamma-radiation at 50 days after inoculation are shown also in a figure. To take the effects on the interactions between species and environment into account, one option is to put the ecotoxicity tests as experimental micro ecosystem study and theoretical model ecosystem analysis. (M. Suetake)

The ecosystem models used for dose assessments in SR-Can

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Avila, Rodolfo [Facilia AB, Bromma (Sweden)

2006-11-15

The estimation of doses to humans in the main scenarios considered in SR-Can is carried out by multiplying the radionuclide releases to the biosphere by Landscape Dose Factors (LDF), which provide estimates of doses incurred by unit releases of activity of a specific radionuclide to the landscape. The landscape models considered in deriving the LDFs consist of a set of interconnected ecosystem models of different types, including aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Aquatic ecosystems comprise the sea, lakes and rivers. The terrestrial ecosystems include agricultural lands, forests and mires. In this report dose conversion factor for each individual ecosystem are reported. Two release cases are considered in the report: a constant unit release rate during 10,000 years and a pulse release, i.e. a unit release during one year. For deriving the LDF values, at each considered time period an ecosystem model is assigned to each landscape object, according to the projected succession of ecosystems in the objects. The applied ecosystem models have been described elsewhere, but some modifications have been made which are described in this report. The main modifications applied to the models are to consider releases through bottom sediments and to consider upstream fluxes for the estimation of the fluxes of radionuclides between the different landscape objects. To facilitate calculations of the radionuclide concentrations in the ingested food, aggregated transfer factors are derived for each ecosystem type. These relate the radionuclide concentrations in the edible carbon production in different ecosystem types to the radionuclide concentrations in the main environmental substrates of the ecosystems, i.e. the water in aquatic ecosystems and the soil in the terrestrial ecosystems. The report provides a description of the methods applied for the derivation of aggregated transfer factors for each ecosystem type and for irrigation. These factors are applicable for situations of

The ecosystem models used for dose assessments in SR-Can

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avila, Rodolfo

2006-11-01

The estimation of doses to humans in the main scenarios considered in SR-Can is carried out by multiplying the radionuclide releases to the biosphere by Landscape Dose Factors (LDF), which provide estimates of doses incurred by unit releases of activity of a specific radionuclide to the landscape. The landscape models considered in deriving the LDFs consist of a set of interconnected ecosystem models of different types, including aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Aquatic ecosystems comprise the sea, lakes and rivers. The terrestrial ecosystems include agricultural lands, forests and mires. In this report dose conversion factor for each individual ecosystem are reported. Two release cases are considered in the report: a constant unit release rate during 10,000 years and a pulse release, i.e. a unit release during one year. For deriving the LDF values, at each considered time period an ecosystem model is assigned to each landscape object, according to the projected succession of ecosystems in the objects. The applied ecosystem models have been described elsewhere, but some modifications have been made which are described in this report. The main modifications applied to the models are to consider releases through bottom sediments and to consider upstream fluxes for the estimation of the fluxes of radionuclides between the different landscape objects. To facilitate calculations of the radionuclide concentrations in the ingested food, aggregated transfer factors are derived for each ecosystem type. These relate the radionuclide concentrations in the edible carbon production in different ecosystem types to the radionuclide concentrations in the main environmental substrates of the ecosystems, i.e. the water in aquatic ecosystems and the soil in the terrestrial ecosystems. The report provides a description of the methods applied for the derivation of aggregated transfer factors for each ecosystem type and for irrigation. These factors are applicable for situations of

A comparison of tools for modeling freshwater ecosystem services.

Science.gov (United States)

Vigerstol, Kari L; Aukema, Juliann E

2011-10-01

Interest in ecosystem services has grown tremendously among a wide range of sectors, including government agencies, NGO's and the business community. Ecosystem services entailing freshwater (e.g. flood control, the provision of hydropower, and water supply), as well as carbon storage and sequestration, have received the greatest attention in both scientific and on-the-ground applications. Given the newness of the field and the variety of tools for predicting water-based services, it is difficult to know which tools to use for different questions. There are two types of freshwater-related tools--traditional hydrologic tools and newer ecosystem services tools. Here we review two of the most prominent tools of each type and their possible applications. In particular, we compare the data requirements, ease of use, questions addressed, and interpretability of results among the models. We discuss the strengths, challenges and most appropriate applications of the different models. Traditional hydrological tools provide more detail whereas ecosystem services tools tend to be more accessible to non-experts and can provide a good general picture of these ecosystem services. We also suggest gaps in the modeling toolbox that would provide the greatest advances by improving existing tools. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping regional livelihood benefits from local ecosystem services assessments in rural Sahel.

Science.gov (United States)

Malmborg, Katja; Sinare, Hanna; Enfors Kautsky, Elin; Ouedraogo, Issa; Gordon, Line J

2018-01-01

Most current approaches to landscape scale ecosystem service assessments rely on detailed secondary data. This type of data is seldom available in regions with high levels of poverty and strong local dependence on provisioning ecosystem services for livelihoods. We develop a method to extrapolate results from a previously published village scale ecosystem services assessment to a higher administrative level, relevant for land use decision making. The method combines remote sensing (using a hybrid classification method) and interviews with community members. The resulting landscape scale maps show the spatial distribution of five different livelihood benefits (nutritional diversity, income, insurance/saving, material assets and energy, and crops for consumption) that illustrate the strong multifunctionality of the Sahelian landscapes. The maps highlight the importance of a diverse set of sub-units of the landscape in supporting Sahelian livelihoods. We see a large potential in using the resulting type of livelihood benefit maps for guiding future land use decisions in the Sahel.

Mapping regional livelihood benefits from local ecosystem services assessments in rural Sahel

Science.gov (United States)

Sinare, Hanna; Enfors Kautsky, Elin; Ouedraogo, Issa; Gordon, Line J.

2018-01-01

Most current approaches to landscape scale ecosystem service assessments rely on detailed secondary data. This type of data is seldom available in regions with high levels of poverty and strong local dependence on provisioning ecosystem services for livelihoods. We develop a method to extrapolate results from a previously published village scale ecosystem services assessment to a higher administrative level, relevant for land use decision making. The method combines remote sensing (using a hybrid classification method) and interviews with community members. The resulting landscape scale maps show the spatial distribution of five different livelihood benefits (nutritional diversity, income, insurance/saving, material assets and energy, and crops for consumption) that illustrate the strong multifunctionality of the Sahelian landscapes. The maps highlight the importance of a diverse set of sub-units of the landscape in supporting Sahelian livelihoods. We see a large potential in using the resulting type of livelihood benefit maps for guiding future land use decisions in the Sahel. PMID:29389965

Mapping regional livelihood benefits from local ecosystem services assessments in rural Sahel.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katja Malmborg

Full Text Available Most current approaches to landscape scale ecosystem service assessments rely on detailed secondary data. This type of data is seldom available in regions with high levels of poverty and strong local dependence on provisioning ecosystem services for livelihoods. We develop a method to extrapolate results from a previously published village scale ecosystem services assessment to a higher administrative level, relevant for land use decision making. The method combines remote sensing (using a hybrid classification method and interviews with community members. The resulting landscape scale maps show the spatial distribution of five different livelihood benefits (nutritional diversity, income, insurance/saving, material assets and energy, and crops for consumption that illustrate the strong multifunctionality of the Sahelian landscapes. The maps highlight the importance of a diverse set of sub-units of the landscape in supporting Sahelian livelihoods. We see a large potential in using the resulting type of livelihood benefit maps for guiding future land use decisions in the Sahel.

A multi-objective constraint-based approach for modeling genome-scale microbial ecosystems.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marko Budinich

Full Text Available Interplay within microbial communities impacts ecosystems on several scales, and elucidation of the consequent effects is a difficult task in ecology. In particular, the integration of genome-scale data within quantitative models of microbial ecosystems remains elusive. This study advocates the use of constraint-based modeling to build predictive models from recent high-resolution -omics datasets. Following recent studies that have demonstrated the accuracy of constraint-based models (CBMs for simulating single-strain metabolic networks, we sought to study microbial ecosystems as a combination of single-strain metabolic networks that exchange nutrients. This study presents two multi-objective extensions of CBMs for modeling communities: multi-objective flux balance analysis (MO-FBA and multi-objective flux variability analysis (MO-FVA. Both methods were applied to a hot spring mat model ecosystem. As a result, multiple trade-offs between nutrients and growth rates, as well as thermodynamically favorable relative abundances at community level, were emphasized. We expect this approach to be used for integrating genomic information in microbial ecosystems. Following models will provide insights about behaviors (including diversity that take place at the ecosystem scale.

Study on residues of 14C-Fenitrothion in a model rice-fish ecosystem and in a field rice-fish ecosystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Zhongliang; Wang Huaxin; Guo Dazhi; Chen Zhiyu; Wu Suchueng

1993-01-01

Residues of 14 C-fenitrothion in a model rice-fish ecosystem and field rice-fish ecosystem were studied. When equal amounts of the pesticide were applied, the extractable residues in brown rice (equivalent to 34.3±1.9 μg/kg fenitrothion) and rice stems and leaves (20.9±1.5 μg/kg) of the model rice-fish ecosystem were 10-15 times higher than that of the field rice-fish ecosystem (4.48±0.13 μg/kg and 1.27±0.34 μg/kg respectively). Residues in upper part of the soil (6.50±0.1--8.10±0.2 μg/kg) and lower part of the soil (1.30±0.1--1.50±0.1 μg/kg) of the model rice-fish ecosystem were 10-40 times higher than that of the field rice-fish ecosystem (0.17±0.01 μg/kg). The extractable residues in paddy water of the model ecosystem (0.30 ± 0.01 μg/kg) were similar to that of the field ecosystem (0.20±0.02 μg/kg). When the fenitrothion was sprayed on the rice plants, residues in brown rice, fish body, soil and paddy water were lower than those when the pesticide was spread on the surface of the soil. (author). 4 refs, 2 tabs

"An Assessment of Ecosystem Services of the Everest Region, Nepal"

OpenAIRE

Tamang, Bikram

2011-01-01

Land use and land cover changes in the region were analyzed on the basis of information extracted from satellite image data. Based on this information, it is clearly noticed that the different land use classes have changed their forms and degrees in different time periods due to the driving forces such as national park activities, influx of Tibetan refugees, climate change and growth of tourism. Furthermore, the landscapes dynamics and their relation to the provisioning of ecosystem services ...

Ecosystem Services Modeling as a Tool for Defining Priority Areas for Conservation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriela Teixeira Duarte

Full Text Available Conservationists often have difficulty obtaining financial and social support for protected areas that do not demonstrate their benefits for society. Therefore, ecosystem services have gained importance in conservation science in the last decade, as these services provide further justification for appropriate management and conservation of natural systems. We used InVEST software and a set of GIS procedures to quantify, spatialize and evaluated the overlap between ecosystem services-carbon stock and sediment retention-and a biodiversity proxy-habitat quality. In addition, we proposed a method that serves as an initial approach of a priority areas selection process. The method considers the synergism between ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. Our study region is the Iron Quadrangle, an important Brazilian mining province and a conservation priority area located in the interface of two biodiversity hotspots, the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes. The resultant priority area for the maintenance of the highest values of ecosystem services and habitat quality was about 13% of the study area. Among those priority areas, 30% are already within established strictly protected areas, and 12% are in sustainable use protected areas. Following the transparent and highly replicable method we proposed in this study, conservation planners can better determine which areas fulfill multiple goals and can locate the trade-offs in the landscape. We also gave a step towards the improvement of the habitat quality model with a topography parameter. In areas of very rugged topography, we have to consider geomorfometric barriers for anthropogenic impacts and for species movement and we must think beyond the linear distances. Moreover, we used a model that considers the tree mortality caused by edge effects in the estimation of carbon stock. We found low spatial congruence among the modeled services, mostly because of the pattern of sediment retention

Ecosystem Services Modeling as a Tool for Defining Priority Areas for Conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Duarte, Gabriela Teixeira; Ribeiro, Milton Cezar; Paglia, Adriano Pereira

2016-01-01

Conservationists often have difficulty obtaining financial and social support for protected areas that do not demonstrate their benefits for society. Therefore, ecosystem services have gained importance in conservation science in the last decade, as these services provide further justification for appropriate management and conservation of natural systems. We used InVEST software and a set of GIS procedures to quantify, spatialize and evaluated the overlap between ecosystem services-carbon stock and sediment retention-and a biodiversity proxy-habitat quality. In addition, we proposed a method that serves as an initial approach of a priority areas selection process. The method considers the synergism between ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. Our study region is the Iron Quadrangle, an important Brazilian mining province and a conservation priority area located in the interface of two biodiversity hotspots, the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes. The resultant priority area for the maintenance of the highest values of ecosystem services and habitat quality was about 13% of the study area. Among those priority areas, 30% are already within established strictly protected areas, and 12% are in sustainable use protected areas. Following the transparent and highly replicable method we proposed in this study, conservation planners can better determine which areas fulfill multiple goals and can locate the trade-offs in the landscape. We also gave a step towards the improvement of the habitat quality model with a topography parameter. In areas of very rugged topography, we have to consider geomorfometric barriers for anthropogenic impacts and for species movement and we must think beyond the linear distances. Moreover, we used a model that considers the tree mortality caused by edge effects in the estimation of carbon stock. We found low spatial congruence among the modeled services, mostly because of the pattern of sediment retention distribution.

AQUATOX coupled foodweb model for ecosystem risk assessment of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in lake ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Lulu; Liu, Jingling

2014-01-01

The AQUATOX model considers the direct toxic effects of chemicals and their indirect effects through foodwebs. For this study, the AQUATOX model was applied to evaluating the ecological risk of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in a highly anthropogenically disturbed lake-Baiyangdian Lake. Calibration and validation results indicated that the model can adequately describe the dynamics of 18 biological populations. Sensitivity analysis results suggested that the model is highly sensitive to temperature limitation. PBDEs risk estimate results demonstrate that estimated risk for natural ecosystems cannot be fully explained by single species toxicity data alone. The AQUATOX model could provide a good basis in ascertaining ecological protection levels of “chemicals of concern” for aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, AQUATOX can potentially be used to provide necessary information corresponding to early warning and rapid forecasting of pollutant transport and fate in the management of chemicals that put aquatic ecosystems at risk. - Highlights: • AQUATOX model incorporates direct toxic effects and indirect ecological effects. • Ecological risk of PBDEs was assessed by the AQUATOX model. • The model could help determine ecological threshold of “chemicals of concern”. - Capsule abstract: Application of the AQUATOX model to assess the direct and indirect ecological risk of PBDEs

Water resources management in the urban agglomeration of the Lake Biwa region, Japan: An ecosystem services-based sustainability assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xiaochen; Chen, Yuqing; Shimizu, Toshiyuki; Niu, Jia; Nakagami, Ken'ichi; Qian, Xuepeng; Jia, Baoju; Nakajima, Jun; Han, Ji; Li, Jianhua

2017-05-15

An innovative ecosystem services-based sustainability assessment was conducted in the important urban agglomeration of the Lake Biwa region, Japan, covering the time period from 1950 to 2014. A 22-indicator system was established that was based on the major ecosystem services of Lake Biwa and its water courses, i.e., provisioning services regarding aquatic products and water; regulating services regarding floods and water quality; cultural services regarding recreation and tourism, scientific research, and environmental education; and supporting services regarding biodiversity. First, changes in the eight ecosystem services were discussed together with the considerable experience and difficult lessons that can be drawn from the development trajectory. Next, with the indicators rearranged according to sustainability principles, the regional sustainability over the past six-plus decades was assessed. In general, this urban agglomeration has been progressing in terms of its sustainability, although economic and social development was achieved at the cost of environmental degradation in the past, and the current economic downturn is hurting the balanced development and integrated benefits. The results lead directly to recommendations for regional development, especially in terms of economic rejuvenation, from the perspective of improving management of Lake Biwa's water resources. Moreover, the relevant knowledge is educational and inspirational for other places in the world that are facing similar development issues. For example, the effective and even pioneering countermeasures that have been taken against environmental degradation, as well as the participation and collaboration of multiple stakeholders, could be useful as a model. Moreover, the study invites increased understanding of ecosystem vulnerability to anthropogenic devastation and emphasizes the priority of precautionary measures over countermeasures in the context of holistic urban planning and sustainable

Modeling Hydrological Services in Shade Grown Coffee Systems: Case Study of the Pico Duarte Region of the Dominican Republic

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, J. D.; Gross, L.; Agosto Filion, N.; Bagstad, K.; Voigt, B. G.; Johnson, G.

2010-12-01

The modification of hydrologic systems in coffee-dominated landscapes varies widely according to the degree of shade trees incorporated in coffee farms. Compared to mono-cropping systems, shade coffee can produce both on- and off-farm benefits in the form of soil retention, moderation of sediment transport, and lower hydropower generating costs. The Pico Duarte Coffee Region and surrounding Madres de Las Aguas (Mother of Waters) Conservation Area in the Dominican Republic is emblematic of the challenges and opportunities of ecosystem service management in coffee landscapes. Shade coffee poly-cultures in the region play an essential role in ensuring ecosystem function to conserve water resources, as well as provide habitat for birds, sequester carbon, and provide consumptive resources to households. To model the provision, use, and flow of ecosystem services from coffee farms in the region, an application of the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) model was developed with particular focus on sediment regulation. ARIES incorporates an array of techniques from data mining, image analysis, neural networks, Bayesian statistics, information theory, and expert systems to model the production, delivery, and demand for ecosystem services. Geospatial data on slope, soils, and vegetation cover is combined with on-farm data collection of coffee production, tree diversity, and intercropping of household food. Given hydropower production and river recreation in the region, the management of sedimentation through on-farm practices has substantial, currently uncompensated value that has received recent attention as the foundation for a payment for ecosystem services system. Scenario analysis of the implications of agro-forestry management choices on farmer livelihoods and the multiple beneficiaries of farm-provided hydrological services provide a foundation for ongoing discussions in the region between local, national, and international interests.

The limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Norden, Sara; Soederbaeck, Bjoern [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Andersson, Eva [SWECO, Stockholm (Sweden)

2008-11-15

The overall objective of this report is to provide a thorough description of the limnic ecosystems at both Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. This information may be used in the Safety Assessment and as a basis for the Environmental Impact Assessment. Three aims were set up for the report: 1) to characterize and describe the limnic ecosystems today and in the past in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas and compare these ecosystems with limnic ecosystems in other areas; 2) to evaluate and visualize major pools, fluxes and sinks of elements within the limnic ecosystems; and finally 3) to describe human impact on the limnic ecosystems. The report includes a thorough description of the lakes and streams in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp and covers the following areas: catchment area characteristics, hydrology, climate, sediment characteristics, physical characteristics of streams, habitat distribution in lakes, biotic components, water chemistry, comparisons with other lakes and streams in the region, and a historical description. Ecosystem models for carbon and mass balances for a number of elements have been calculated to further improve the understanding of the lake ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are described and evaluated in the report. The Forsmark regional model area contains more than 20 permanent lakes and pools. All lakes are small and shallow, and are characterized as oligotrophic hardwater lakes. Calcareous soils in the area give rise to high calcium concentrations in the surface water, which in turn leads to high pH and low nutrient concentrations in water as phosphorus often co-precipitates with calcium. The shallow depths and moderate water colour permit photosynthesis in the entire benthic habitat of the lakes, and the bottoms are covered by dense stands of the macroalgae Chara sp. Moreover, many of the lakes also have a thick microbial mat (>10 cm), consisting of cyanobacteria and diatoms, in the benthic habitat. Fish in

MAPPING AND ASSESSING MULTIPLE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN AN ALPINE REGION: A STUDY IN TRENTINO, ITALY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Ferrari

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This research aims to identify ecosystem services relevant for Trentino (a region in the Italian Alps, and to assess them through spatial indicators. 51 experts were involved in the identification of relevant ecosystem services and appropriate indicators to represent them. Indicators were computed using the database available at administrative level. Indicators represent the actual or the potential supply of ecosystem services, expressed in terms of either stock or flow. Moreover, indicators may refer to biophysical, economic or socio-cultural values. In total, the experts selected 25 ecosystem services and 57 assessment indicators. Accordingly, the selected indicators were mapped over different spatial units of ecosystem services representation, including land use and forest types. This research was the first attempt to assess a multiple set of ecosystem services for Trentino. The results provide new information that can be used to achieve the objectives of the EU Biodiversity Strategy by 2014. The proposed approach can be reasonably extended to other Alpine areas with similar morphology, land cover and land use.

A compartment model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

1978-01-01

A linear compartment donor-controlled model was designed to describe and simulate the behaviour of plutonium ( 239 , 240 Pu) in a contaminated deciduous forest ecosystem at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. At steady states predicted by the model, less than 0.25% of the Pu in the ecosystem resides in forest biota. Soil is the major repository of Pu in the forest, and reciprocal exchanges of Pu between soil and litter or soil and tree roots were dominant transfers affecting the ecosystem distribution of Pu. Variation in predicted steady state amounts of Pu in the forest, given variability in the model parameters, indicated that ones ability to develop reliable models of Pu transport in ecosystems will improve with greater precision in data from natural environments and a better understanding of sources of variation in Pu data. (author)

Modeling the role and impact of alien species and fisheries on the Israeli marine continental shelf ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Corrales, X.; Ofir, E.; Coll, M.; Goren, M.; Edelist, D.; Heymans, J. J.; Gal, G.

2017-06-01

The ecosystems of the Israeli Mediterranean coast have undergone significant changes in recent decades mainly due to species invasions and fishing. In order to characterize the structure and functioning of the marine continental shelf of the Israeli Mediterranean coast and assess temporal changes, we developed a food web model representing two time periods: 1990-1994 and 2008-2012. The 1990-1994 and 2008-2012 food web models were composed of 39 and 41 functional groups, respectively. Functional groups ranged from primary producers to top predators, and included six and eight alien functional groups, respectively, encompassing several crustacean and fish species. Input data included local surveys and fishery statistics, published data on stomach content analyses, and the application of empirical equations to estimate consumption and production rates. Results of the competitive interactions between alien and native species and changes in trophic flows between food web components highlight the increasing impact of alien species over time. Fishing had noticeable impacts in both time periods and played an important role in the ecosystem. Despite different productivity rates and other environmental differences, the Israeli marine ecosystem shared common structural and functional traits with other Mediterranean marine ecosystems. This is the first attempt to study the ecosystem of the Levant region using mass-balance models and to integrate such a large amount of alien species into food web analyses.

Modeling for Ecosystem Services: Challenges and Opportunities

Science.gov (United States)

Guswa, A. J.; Brauman, K. A.; Ghile, Y.

2012-12-01

Ecosystem services are those values provided to human society by the structure and processes of ecosystems and landscapes. Water-related services include the transformation of precipitation impulses into supplies of water for hydropower, irrigation, and industrial and municipal uses, the retention and removal of applied nutrients and pollutants, flood-damage mitigation, recreation, and the provision of cultural and aesthetic values. Incorporation of changes to the value of these services in land-use planning and decision making requires identification of the relevant services, engagement of stakeholders, knowledge of how land-use changes impact water quality, quantity, and timing, and mechanisms for putting value on the hydrologic and biogeochemical changes. We present three examples that highlight the characteristics, challenges, and opportunities associated with prototypical decisions that incorporate ecosystem services values: scenario analysis, payment for ecosystem services, and optimal spatial planning. Through these examples, we emphasize the challenges of data availability, model resolution and complexity, and attribution of value. We also provide some suggestions for ways forward.

Synergies, Trade-offs, and Losses of Ecosystem Services in Urban Regions: an Integrated Multiscale Framework Applied to the Leipzig-Halle Region, Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dagmar Haase

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Because we have entered the 'millennium of the cities', urban ecological research needs to account for the provisions ecosystem services provide to urban regions. In urban areas, ecosystem service assessment studies need to account for the complex land use patterns, which change over relatively short periods of time. We discuss an analytical framework for the spatial and temporal integration of different ecosystem services in an urban region to determine synergies, trade-offs and losses, and we employ a case study in Leipzig-Halle, Germany. The following five ecosystem services, which are of special importance for urban areas, were selected: local climate regulation, recreation potential, biodiversity potential, food supply, and above-ground carbon storage. These services were analyzed from 1990 to 2006. Our results identified only slight increases in urbanization (1% or 3 km² and in mining restoration (-11 km². However, the detected land use changes led to synergies with biodiversity and climate regulation of > 50% of the total area, whereas trade-offs of approximately 60% were detected between variables such as climate regulation and recreation. Finally, we address both the opportunities and the challenges that were encountered in the integration study, specifically with respect to the application in land use planning.

List identifies threatened ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Showstack, Randy

2012-09-01

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) announced on 9 September that it will develop a new Red List of Ecosystems that will identify which ecosystems are vulnerable or endangered. The list, which is modeled on the group's Red List of Threatened Species™, could help to guide conservation activities and influence policy processes such as the Convention on Biological Diversity, according to the group. “We will assess the status of marine, terrestrial, freshwater, and subterranean ecosystems at local, regional, and global levels,” stated Jon Paul Rodriguez, leader of IUCN's Ecosystems Red List Thematic Group. “The assessment can then form the basis for concerted implementation action so that we can manage them sustainably if their risk of collapse is low or restore them if they are threatened and then monitor their recovery.”

Insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States—A regional synthesis to support biodiversity conservation in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Wolfe, William J.

2016-08-11

In the southeastern United States, insular ecosystems—such as rock outcrops, depression wetlands, high-elevation balds, flood-scoured riparian corridors, and insular prairies and barrens—occupy a small fraction of land area but constitute an important source of regional and global biodiversity, including concentrations of rare and endemic plant taxa. Maintenance of this biodiversity depends upon regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, incorporating factors such as soil surface temperature, widely fluctuating hydrologic conditions, fires, flood scouring, and episodic droughts that may be subject to alteration by climate change. Over several decades, numerous localized, site-level investigations have yielded important information about the floristics, physical environments, and ecological dynamics of these insular ecosystems; however, the literature from these investigations has generally remained fragmented. This report consists of literature syntheses for eight categories of insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States, concerning (1) physical geography, (2) ecological determinants of community structures including vegetation dynamics and regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, (3) contributions to regional and global biodiversity, (4) historical and current anthropogenic threats and conservation approaches, and (5) key knowledge gaps relevant to conservation, particularly in terms of climate-change effects on biodiversity. This regional synthesis was undertaken to discern patterns across ecosystems, identify knowledge gaps, and lay the groundwork for future analyses of climate-change vulnerability. Findings from this synthesis indicate that, despite their importance to regional and global biodiversity, insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States have been subjected to a variety of direct and indirect human alterations. In many cases, important questions remain concerning key determinants of ecosystem function. In particular, few

Evaluating the Governance Model of Hardware-Dependent Software Ecosystems – A Case Study of the Axis Ecosystem

OpenAIRE

Wnuk, Krzysztof; Manikas, Konstantinos; Runeson, Per; Matilda, Lantz; Oskar, Weijden; Munir, Hussan

2014-01-01

Ecosystem governance becomes gradually more relevant for a set of companies or actors characterized by symbiotic relations evolved on the top of a technological platform, i.e. a software ecosystem. In this study, we focus on the governance of a hardware-dependent software ecosystem. More specifically, we evaluate the governance model applied by Axis, a network video and surveillance camera producer, that is the platform owner and orchestrator of the Application Development Partner (ADP) softw...

Effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhiyuan; Zhang, Renduo; Cescatti, Alessandro; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Buchmann, Nina; Zhu, Juan; Chen, Guanhong; Moyano, Fernando; Pumpanen, Jukka; Hirano, Takashi; Takagi, Kentaro; Merbold, Lutz

2017-06-08

The net ecosystem CO 2 exchange is the result of the imbalance between the assimilation process (gross primary production, GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE). The aim of this study was to investigate temperature sensitivities of these processes and the effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO 2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions. A database of 403 site-years of ecosystem flux data at 101 sites in the world was collected and analyzed. Temperature sensitivities of rates of RE and GPP were quantified with Q 10 , defined as the increase of RE (or GPP) rates with a temperature rise of 10 °C. Results showed that on the annual time scale, the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of GPP (Q 10sG ) was higher than or equivalent to the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of RE (Q 10sR ). Q 10sG was negatively correlated to the mean annual temperature (MAT), whereas Q 10sR was independent of MAT. The analysis of the current temperature sensitivities and net ecosystem production suggested that temperature rise might enhance the CO 2 sink of terrestrial ecosystems both in the boreal and temperate regions. In addition, ecosystems in these regions with different plant functional types should sequester more CO 2 with climate warming.

Modelling of radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems. A literature review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.

1998-03-01

The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man. 42 refs, 3 tabs, 9 figs.

Modelling of radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems. A literature review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.

1998-03-01

The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man

Ecosystem evolution of Lake Gusinoe (Transbaikal region, Russia)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pisarsky, B.L.; Hardina, A.M.; Naganawa, H. [Russian Academy of Science, Irkutsk (Russian Federation). Siberian Division

2005-12-01

Lake Gusinoe is situated on a basin originating from Paleozoic and Mesozoic deposits. The recorded history of the lake's ecosystem evolution is no more than 300 years. The present lake drainage basin was formed mainly in the Cenozoic era, but during the past century, major anthropogenic impacts on the lake have occurred. The human-influenced evolution of the ecosystem began in the 1940s with the development of opencut coal mining nearby the lake. Population increase and the building of the Gusinoozersk State Regional Power Plant, the TransMongolian Railroad and an associated station, and military installations were the major sources of anthropogenic impacts. Since the early 1950s about five species of fish have been introduced into Lake Gusinoe or have invaded the lake, and at least six of the native species have disappeared or are in danger of extinction. From our recent investigations, the present environment of the Lake Gusinoe Basin (Gusinoozersk Basin) is divided into four zones hydro-geochemically: (1) ultrafreshwater, (2) freshwater, (3) mineralized water, and (4) hyposaline and saltwater. Some additional data on changes of the chemical components of the drainage basin waters, as well as on the transition of zooplankton and zoobenthic fauna, are presented in consideration of the risk of industrial development, and the perspectives are discussed.

Comparing the Applicability of Commonly Used Hydrological Ecosystem Services Models for Integrated Decision-Support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Lüke

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Different simulation models are used in science and practice in order to incorporate hydrological ecosystem services in decision-making processes. This contribution compares three simulation models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, a traditional hydrological model and two ecosystem services models, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model and the Resource Investment Optimization System model. The three models are compared on a theoretical and conceptual basis as well in a comparative case study application. The application of the models to a study area in Nicaragua reveals that a practical benefit to apply these models for different questions in decision-making generally exists. However, modelling of hydrological ecosystem services is associated with a high application effort and requires input data that may not always be available. The degree of detail in temporal and spatial variability in ecosystem service provision is higher when using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool compared to the two ecosystem service models. In contrast, the ecosystem service models have lower requirements on input data and process knowledge. A relationship between service provision and beneficiaries is readily produced and can be visualized as a model output. The visualization is especially useful for a practical decision-making context.

Modelling soil temperature and moisture and corresponding seasonality of photosynthesis and transpiration in a boreal spruce ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, S. H.; Jansson, P.-E.

2013-02-01

Recovery of photosynthesis and transpiration is strongly restricted by low temperatures in air and/or soil during the transition period from winter to spring in boreal zones. The extent to which air temperature (Ta) and soil temperature (Ts) influence the seasonality of photosynthesis and transpiration of a boreal spruce ecosystem was investigated using a process-based ecosystem model (CoupModel) together with eddy covariance (EC) data from one eddy flux tower and nearby soil measurements at Knottåsen, Sweden. A Monte Carlo-based uncertainty method (GLUE) provided prior and posterior distributions of simulations representing a wide range of soil conditions and performance indicators. The simulated results showed sufficient flexibility to predict the measured cold and warm Ts in the moist and dry plots around the eddy flux tower. Moreover, the model presented a general ability to describe both biotic and abiotic processes for the Norway spruce stand. The dynamics of sensible heat fluxes were well described by the corresponding latent heat fluxes and net ecosystem exchange of CO2. The parameter ranges obtained are probably valid to represent regional characteristics of boreal conifer forests, but were not easy to constrain to a smaller range than that produced by the assumed prior distributions. Finally, neglecting the soil temperature response function resulted in fewer behavioural models and probably more compensatory errors in other response functions for regulating the seasonality of ecosystem fluxes.

Modelling impacts of second generation bioenergy production on Ecosystem Services in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Henner, Dagmar; Smith, Pete; Davies, Christian; McNamara, Niall

2016-04-01

Bioenergy crops are an important source of renewable energy and are a possible mechanism to mitigate global climate warming, by replacing fossil fuel energy with higher greenhouse gas emissions. There is, however, uncertainty about the impacts of the growth of bioenergy crops on ecosystem services. This uncertainty is further enhanced by the unpredictable climate change currently going on. The goal of this project is to develop a comprehensive model that covers high impact, policy relevant ecosystem services at a Continental scale including biodiversity and pollination, water and air security, erosion control and soil security, GHG emissions, soil C and cultural services like tourism value. The technical distribution potential and likely yield of second generation energy crops, such as Miscanthus, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) with willow, poplar, eucalyptus and other broadleaf species and Short Rotation Forestry (SRF), is currently being modelled using ECOSSE, DayCent, SalixFor and MiscanFor, and ecosystem models will be used to examine the impacts of these crops on ecosystem services. The project builds on models of energy crop production, biodiversity, soil impacts, greenhouse gas emissions and other ecosystem services, and on work undertaken in the UK on the ETI-funded ELUM project (www.elum.ac.uk). In addition, methods like water footprint tools, tourism value maps and ecosystem valuation tools and models (e.g. InVest, TEEB database, GREET LCA Model, World Business Council for Sustainable Development corporate ecosystem valuation, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Ecosystem Services Framework) will be utilised. Research will focus on optimisation of land use change feedbacks on above named ecosystem services, impact on food security, land management practices and impacts from climate change. We will present results for GHG emissions and soil organic carbon change after different land use change scenarios (e.g. arable to Miscanthus, forest to SRF), and

Balancing trade-offs between ecosystem services in Germany’s forests under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Gutsch, Martin; Lasch-Born, Petra; Kollas, Chris; Suckow, Felicitas; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

2018-04-01

Germany’s forests provide a variety of ecosystem services. Sustainable forest management aims to optimize the provision of these services at regional level. However, climate change will impact forest ecosystems and subsequently ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of two alternative management scenarios and climate impacts on forest variables indicative of ecosystem services related to timber, habitat, water, and carbon. The ecosystem services are represented through nine model output variables (timber harvest, above and belowground biomass, net ecosystem production, soil carbon, percolation, nitrogen leaching, deadwood, tree dimension, broadleaf tree proportion) from the process-based forest model 4C. We simulated forest growth, carbon and water cycling until 2045 with 4C set-up for the whole German forest area based on National Forest Inventory data and driven by three management strategies (nature protection, biomass production and a baseline management) and an ensemble of regional climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5). We provide results as relative changes compared to the baseline management and observed climate. Forest management measures have the strongest effects on ecosystem services inducing positive or negative changes of up to 40% depending on the ecosystem service in question, whereas climate change only slightly alters ecosystem services averaged over the whole forest area. The ecosystem services ‘carbon’ and ‘timber’ benefit from climate change, while ‘water’ and ‘habitat’ lose. We detect clear trade-offs between ‘timber’ and all other ecosystem services, as well as synergies between ‘habitat’ and ‘carbon’. When evaluating all ecosystem services simultaneously, our results reveal certain interrelations between climate and management scenarios. North-eastern and western forest regions are more suitable to provide timber (while minimizing the negative impacts on remaining

Degradation and damages from utilizing ecosystem services in a river basin

Science.gov (United States)

Travis W. Warziniack

2012-01-01

We examine the tradeoffs between utilizing multiple ecosystem services in an economic model of the Lower Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin. We show how economic development in the basin degraded the ecosystem, but diversified the economy. A degraded ecosystem and more employment opportunities elsewhere reduced the region's reliance on agriculture and other...

Regional processes in mangrove ecosystems: Spatial scaling relationships, biomass, and turnover rates following catastrophic disturbance

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, G.A.; Smith, T. J.; Whelan, K.R.T.; Doyle, T.W.

2006-01-01

Physiological processes and local-scale structural dynamics of mangroves are relatively well studied. Regional-scale processes, however, are not as well understood. Here we provide long-term data on trends in structure and forest turnover at a large scale, following hurricane damage in mangrove ecosystems of South Florida, U.S.A. Twelve mangrove vegetation plots were monitored at periodic intervals, between October 1992 and March 2005. Mangrove forests of this region are defined by a -1.5 scaling relationship between mean stem diameter and stem density, mirroring self-thinning theory for mono-specific stands. This relationship is reflected in tree size frequency scaling exponents which, through time, have exhibited trends toward a community average that is indicative of full spatial resource utilization. These trends, together with an asymptotic standing biomass accumulation, indicate that coastal mangrove ecosystems do adhere to size-structured organizing principles as described for upland tree communities. Regenerative dynamics are different between areas inside and outside of the primary wind-path of Hurricane Andrew which occurred in 1992. Forest dynamic turnover rates, however, are steady through time. This suggests that ecological, more-so than structural factors, control forest productivity. In agreement, the relative mean rate of biomass growth exhibits an inverse relationship with the seasonal range of porewater salinities. The ecosystem average in forest scaling relationships may provide a useful investigative tool of mangrove community biomass relationships, as well as offer a robust indicator of general ecosystem health for use in mangrove forest ecosystem management and restoration. ?? Springer 2006.

Ecosystem-based fishery management: a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nguyen, Thanh Viet

  An ecosystem approach means different things to different people. As a result the concept of ecosystem-based fishery management is evolving and it has no universal definition or consistent application. As regards ecosystem modeling, most economic models of fishery ignore the linkages to lower...... trophic levels. In particular, environmental data and other bottom-up information is widely disregarded. The objective of this paper is to provide a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models relating to ecosystem-based fishery management....

Examining Ecological and Ecosystem Level Impacts of Aquatic Invasive Species in Lake Michigan Using An Ecosystem Productivity Model, LM-Eco

Science.gov (United States)

Ecological and ecosystem-level impacts of aquatic invasive species in Lake Michigan were examined using the Lake Michigan Ecosystem Model (LM-Eco). The LM-Eco model includes a detailed description of trophic levels and their interactions within the lower food web of Lake Michiga...

Validation of a Process-Based Agro-Ecosystem Model (Agro-IBIS for Maize in Xinjiang, Northwest China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tureniguli Amuti

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Agricultural oasis expansion and intensive management practices have occurred in arid and semiarid regions of China during the last few decades. Accordingly, regional carbon and water budgets have been profoundly impacted by agroecosystems in these regions. Therefore, study on the methods used to accurately estimate energy, water, and carbon exchanges is becoming increasingly important. Process-based models can represent the complex processes between land and atmosphere among agricultural ecosystems. However, before the models can be applied they must be validated under different environmental and climatic conditions. In this study, a process-based agricultural ecosystem model (Agro-IBIS was validated for maize crops using 3 years of soil and biometric measurements at Wulanwusu agrometeorological site (WAS located in the Shihezi oasis in Xinjiang, northwest China. The model satisfactorily represented leaf area index (LAI during the growing season, simulating its peak values within the magnitude of 0–10%. The total biomass carbon was overestimated by 15%, 8%, and 16% in 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively. The model satisfactorily simulated the soil temperature (0–10 cm and volumetric water content (VWC (0–25 cm of farmland during the growing season. However, it overestimated soil temperature approximately by 4 °C and VWC by 15–30% during the winter, coinciding with the period of no vegetation cover in Xinjiang. Overall, the results indicate that the model could represent crop growth, and seems to be applicable in multiple sites in arid oases agroecosystems of Xinjiang. Future application of the model will impose more comprehensive validation using eddy covariance flux data, and consider including dynamics of crop residue and improving characterization of the final stage of leaf development.

The virtues of variety in regional innovation systems and entrepreneurial ecosystems

OpenAIRE

Cooke, Philip

2016-01-01

- Today, interesting and important interconnections have been made that promise great leaps forward for innovation systems and entrepreneurial ecosystems - especially operating at the regional or sub-national level of the space economy. Of course, there are politics in such relationships. Most notable are those that are critical of anything that “interferes” with market hegemony (neoliberal bias) which has weakened commitments such as those pioneered in South Korea in the early years of th...

Using ecosystem modelling techniques in exposure assessments of radionuclides - an overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumblad, L.

2005-01-01

The risk to humans from potential releases from nuclear facilities is evaluated in safety assessments. Essential components of these assessments are exposure models, which estimate the transport of radionuclides in the environment, the uptake in biota, and transfer to humans. Recently, there has been a growing concern for radiological protection of the whole environment, not only humans, and a first attempt has been to employ model approaches based on stylized environments and transfer functions to biota based exclusively on bioconcentration factors (BCF). They are generally of a non-mechanistic nature and involve no knowledge of the actual processes involved, which is a severe limitation when assessing real ecosystems. in this paper, the possibility of using an ecological modelling approach as a complement or an alternative to the use of BCF-based models is discussed. The paper gives an overview of ecological and ecosystem modelling and examples of studies where ecosystem models have been used in association to ecological risk assessment studies for other pollutants than radionuclides. It also discusses the potential to use this technique in exposure assessments of radionuclides with a few examples from the safety assessment work performed by the Swedish nuclear fuel and waste management company (SKB). Finally there is a comparison of the characteristics of ecosystem models and traditionally exposure models for radionuclides used to estimate the radionuclide exposure of biota. The evaluation of ecosystem models already applied in safety assessments has shown that the ecosystem approach is possible to use to assess exposure to biota, and that it can handle many of the modelling problems identified related to BCF-models. The findings in this paper suggest that both national and international assessment frameworks for protection of the environment from ionising radiation would benefit from striving to adopt methodologies based on ecologically sound principles and

Modelling the Congo basin ecosystems with a dynamic vegetation model

Science.gov (United States)

Dury, Marie; Hambuckers, Alain; Trolliet, Franck; Huynen, Marie-Claude; Haineaux, Damien; Fontaine, Corentin M.; Fayolle, Adeline; François, Louis

2014-05-01

The scarcity of field observations in some parts of the world makes difficult a deep understanding of some ecosystems such as humid tropical forests in Central Africa. Therefore, modelling tools are interesting alternatives to study those regions even if the lack of data often prevents sharp calibration and validation of the model projections. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are process-based models that simulate shifts in potential vegetation and its associated biogeochemical and hydrological cycles in response to climate. Initially run at the global scale, DVMs can be run at any spatial scale provided that climate and soil data are available. In the framework of the BIOSERF project ("Sustainability of tropical forest biodiversity and services under climate and human pressure"), we use and adapt the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) to study the Congo basin vegetation dynamics. The field campaigns have notably allowed the refinement of the vegetation representation from plant functional types (PFTs) to individual species through the collection of parameters such as the specific leaf area or the leaf C:N ratio of common tropical tree species and the location of their present-day occurrences from literature and available database. Here, we test the model ability to reproduce the present spatial and temporal variations of carbon stocks (e.g. biomass, soil carbon) and fluxes (e.g. gross and net primary productivities (GPP and NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP)) as well as the observed distribution of the studied species over the Congo basin. In the lack of abundant and long-term measurements, we compare model results with time series of remote sensing products (e.g. vegetation leaf area index (LAI), GPP and NPP). Several sensitivity tests are presented: we assess consecutively the impacts of the level at which the vegetation is simulated (PFTs or species), the spatial resolution and the initial land

Optimal foraging in marine ecosystem models: selectivity, profitability and switching

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Visser, Andre W.; Fiksen, Ø.

2013-01-01

ecological mechanics and evolutionary logic as a solution to diet selection in ecosystem models. When a predator can consume a range of prey items it has to choose which foraging mode to use, which prey to ignore and which ones to pursue, and animals are known to be particularly skilled in adapting...... to the preference functions commonly used in models today. Indeed, depending on prey class resolution, optimal foraging can yield feeding rates that are considerably different from the ‘switching functions’ often applied in marine ecosystem models. Dietary inclusion is dictated by two optimality choices: 1...... by letting predators maximize energy intake or more properly, some measure of fitness where predation risk and cost are also included. An optimal foraging or fitness maximizing approach will give marine ecosystem models a sound principle to determine trophic interactions...

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

Science.gov (United States)

Desai, A. R.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Zeeman, M. J.; Katata, G.; Eugster, W.; Montagnani, L.; Gianelle, D.; Mauder, M.; Schmid, H.-P.

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desai, A R; Wohlfahrt, G; Zeeman, M J; Katata, G; Mauder, M; Schmid, H-P; Eugster, W; Montagnani, L; Gianelle, D

2016-01-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies. (letter)

Activation of the operational ecohydrodynamic model (3D CEMBS - the ecosystem module

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaromir Jakacki

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The paper describes the ecohydrodynamic predictive model - the ecosystem module - for assessing the state of the Baltic marine environment and the Baltic ecosystem. The Baltic Sea model 3D CEMBS (the Coupled Ecosystem Model of the Baltic Sea is based on the Community Earth System Model, which was adopted for the Baltic Sea as a coupled sea-ice-ecosystem model. The 3D CEMBS model uses: (i hydrodynamic equations describing water movement, (ii thermodynamic equations, (iii equations describing the concentration distribution of chemical variables in the sea, and (iv equations describing the exchange of matter between individual groups of organisms and their environment that make allowance for the kinetics of biochemical processes. The ecosystem model consists of 11 main components: three classes of phytoplankton (small phytoplankton, large phytoplankton represented mainly by diatoms and summer species, mostly cyanobacteria expressed in units of carbon and chlorophyll a as separate variables, zooplankton, pelagic detritus, dissolved oxygen and nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate and silicate. In operational mode, 48-hour atmospheric forecasts provided by the UM model from the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of Warsaw University (ICM are used. All model forecasts are available on the website http://deep.iopan.gda.pl/CEMBaltic/new_lay/index.php. The results presented in this paper show that the 3D CEMBS model is operating correctly.

Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

Science.gov (United States)

Marianne V. Moore; Michael L. Pace; John R. Mather; [and others; [Editor’s note: Patricia A. Flebbe is the SRS co-author for this publication.

1997-01-01

Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests, and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and...

A hybrid regional approach to model discharge at multiple sub-basins within the Calapooia Watershed, Oregon, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Modeling is a useful tool for quantifying ecosystem services and understanding their temporal dynamics. Here we describe a hybrid regional modeling approach for sub-basins of the Calapooia watershed that incorporates both a precipitation-runoff model and an indexed regression mo...

From theoretical to actual ecosystem services: mapping beneficiaries and spatial flows in ecosystem service assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenneth J. Bagstad

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Ecosystem services mapping and modeling has focused more on supply than demand, until recently. Whereas the potential provision of economic benefits from ecosystems to people is often quantified through ecological production functions, the use of and demand for ecosystem services has received less attention, as have the spatial flows of services from ecosystems to people. However, new modeling approaches that map and quantify service-specific sources (ecosystem capacity to provide a service, sinks (biophysical or anthropogenic features that deplete or alter service flows, users (user locations and level of demand, and spatial flows can provide a more complete understanding of ecosystem services. Through a case study in Puget Sound, Washington State, USA, we quantify and differentiate between the theoretical or in situ provision of services, i.e., ecosystems' capacity to supply services, and their actual provision when accounting for the location of beneficiaries and the spatial connections that mediate service flows between people and ecosystems. Our analysis includes five ecosystem services: carbon sequestration and storage, riverine flood regulation, sediment regulation for reservoirs, open space proximity, and scenic viewsheds. Each ecosystem service is characterized by different beneficiary groups and means of service flow. Using the ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES methodology we map service supply, demand, and flow, extending on simpler approaches used by past studies to map service provision and use. With the exception of the carbon sequestration service, regions that actually provided services to people, i.e., connected to beneficiaries via flow paths, amounted to 16-66% of those theoretically capable of supplying services, i.e., all ecosystems across the landscape. These results offer a more complete understanding of the spatial dynamics of ecosystem services and their effects, and may provide a sounder basis for

The limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Norden, Sara; Soederbaeck, Bjoern; Andersson, Eva

2008-11-01

The overall objective of this report is to provide a thorough description of the limnic ecosystems at both Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. This information may be used in the Safety Assessment and as a basis for the Environmental Impact Assessment. Three aims were set up for the report: 1) to characterize and describe the limnic ecosystems today and in the past in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas and compare these ecosystems with limnic ecosystems in other areas; 2) to evaluate and visualize major pools, fluxes and sinks of elements within the limnic ecosystems; and finally 3) to describe human impact on the limnic ecosystems. The report includes a thorough description of the lakes and streams in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp and covers the following areas: catchment area characteristics, hydrology, climate, sediment characteristics, physical characteristics of streams, habitat distribution in lakes, biotic components, water chemistry, comparisons with other lakes and streams in the region, and a historical description. Ecosystem models for carbon and mass balances for a number of elements have been calculated to further improve the understanding of the lake ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are described and evaluated in the report. The Forsmark regional model area contains more than 20 permanent lakes and pools. All lakes are small and shallow, and are characterized as oligotrophic hardwater lakes. Calcareous soils in the area give rise to high calcium concentrations in the surface water, which in turn leads to high pH and low nutrient concentrations in water as phosphorus often co-precipitates with calcium. The shallow depths and moderate water colour permit photosynthesis in the entire benthic habitat of the lakes, and the bottoms are covered by dense stands of the macroalgae Chara sp. Moreover, many of the lakes also have a thick microbial mat (>10 cm), consisting of cyanobacteria and diatoms, in the benthic habitat. Fish in

Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Jens H.; Carter, Timothy R.; Rummukainen, Markku

2007-01-01

This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research articles documenting co-ordinated work carried out within a 3-year European Union project 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects' (PRUDENCE). The main objective...... of the PRUDENCE project was to provide high resolution climate change scenarios for Europe at the end of the twenty-first century by means of dynamical downscaling (regional climate modelling) of global climate simulations. The first part of the issue comprises seven overarching PRUDENCE papers on: (1) the design...... of the model simulations and analyses of climate model performance, (2 and 3) evaluation and intercomparison of simulated climate changes, (4 and 5) specialised analyses of impacts on water resources and on other sectors including agriculture, ecosystems, energy, and transport, (6) investigation of extreme...

Valuing ecosystem and economic services across land-use scenarios in the Prairie Pothole Regions of the Dakotas, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Gascoigne, William R.; Hoag, Dana; Koontz, Lynne; Tangen, Brian A.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gleason, Robert A.

2011-01-01

This study uses biophysical values derived for the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North and South Dakota, in conjunction with value transfer methods, to assess environmental and economic tradeoffs under different policy-relevant land-use scenarios over a 20-year period. The ecosystem service valuation is carried out by comparing the biophysical and economic values of three focal services (i.e. carbon sequestration, reduction in sedimentation, and waterfowl production) across three focal land uses in the region [i.e. native prairie grasslands, lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve and Wetlands Reserve Programs (CRP/WRP), and cropland]. This study finds that CRP/WRP lands cannot mitigate (hectare for hectare) the loss of native prairie from a social welfare standpoint. Land use scenarios where native prairie loss was minimized, and CRP/WRP lands were increased, provided the most societal benefit. The scenario modeling projected native prairie conversion to cropland over the next 20 years would result in a social welfare loss valued at over $4 billion when considering the study's three ecosystem services, and a net loss of about $3.4 billion when reductions in commodity production are accounted for.

The Limits of Acclimation of land plants in a Terrestrial Ecosystems Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kothavala, Zavareh

2014-05-01

In this study, we examine the role of the terrestrial carbon cycle and the ability of different plant types to acclimate to a changing climate at the centennial scale using a global ecosystems model with updated biogeochemical processes related to moisture, carbon, and nitrogen. Elevated level of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) increases CO2 fertilization, resulting in more CO2 uptake by vegetation, whereas the concomitant warming increases autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration, releasing CO2 to the atmosphere. Additionally, warming will enhance photosynthesis if current temperatures are below the optimal temperature for plant growth, while it will reduce photosynthesis if current temperatures are above the optimal temperature for plant growth. We present a series of ensemble simulations to evaluate the ability of plants to acclimate to changing conditions over the last century and how this affects the terrestrial carbon sink. A set of experiments related to (a) the varying relationship between CO2 fertilization and the half saturation constant, (b) the factors related to gross primary productivity and maintenance respiration, and (c) the variables related to heterotrophic respiration, were conducted with thirteen plant functional types. The experiments were performed using the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) with a present-day vegetation distribution without the effects of natural or human disturbance, and a closed Nitrogen cycle, at a half-degree resolution over the globe. The experiment design consisted of eight scenarios that are consistent with past and future ecosystem conditions, presented in other scientific studies. The significance of model trends related to runoff, soil moisture, soil carbon, Net Primary Productivity (NPP), crop yield, and Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) for different seasons, as well as surface temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure, and photosynthetically active radiation are analyzed for various ecosystems at the global

Global Monthly CO2 Flux Inversion Based on Results of Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, F.; Chen, J.; Peters, W.; Krol, M.

2008-12-01

Most of our understanding of the sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 has come from inverse studies of atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements. However, the number of currently available observation stations and our ability to simulate the diurnal planetary boundary layer evolution over continental regions essentially limit the number of regions that can be reliably inverted globally, especially over continental areas. In order to overcome these restrictions, a nested inverse modeling system was developed based on the Bayesian principle for estimating carbon fluxes of 30 regions in North America and 20 regions for the rest of the globe. Inverse modeling was conducted in monthly steps using CO2 concentration measurements of 5 years (2000 - 2005) with the following two models: (a) An atmospheric transport model (TM5) is used to generate the transport matrix where the diurnal variation n of atmospheric CO2 concentration is considered to enhance the use of the afternoon-hour average CO2 concentration measurements over the continental sites. (b) A process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (BEPS) is used to produce hourly step carbon fluxes, which could minimize the limitation due to our inability to solve the inverse problem in a high resolution, as the background of our inversion. We will present our recent results achieved through a combination of the bottom-up modeling with BEPS and the top-down modeling based on TM5 driven by offline meteorological fields generated by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMFW).

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model - A Map-Based Multicriteria Ecological, Economic, and Community Land-Use Planning Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Labiosa, William B.; Bernknopf, Richard; Hearn, Paul; Hogan, Dianna; Strong, David; Pearlstine, Leonard; Mathie, Amy M.; Wein, Anne M.; Gillen, Kevin; Wachter, Susan

2009-01-01

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype is a regional land-use planning Web tool that integrates ecological, economic, and social information and values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multicriteria evaluation framework that builds on geographic information system-based (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to regional land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The EPM uses both economics (monetized) and multiattribute utility (nonmonetized) approaches to valuing these endpoints and consequences. This hybrid approach represents a methodological middle ground between rigorous economic and ecological/ environmental scientific approaches. The EPM sacrifices some degree of economic- and ecological-forecasting precision to gain methodological transparency, spatial explicitness, and transferability, while maintaining credibility. After all, even small steps in the direction of including ecosystem services evaluation are an improvement over current land-use planning practice (Boyd and Wainger, 2003). There are many participants involved in land-use decision-making in South Florida, including local, regional, State, and Federal agencies, developers, environmental groups, agricultural groups, and other stakeholders (South Florida Regional Planning Council, 2003, 2004). The EPM's multicriteria evaluation framework is designed to cut across the objectives and knowledge bases of all of these participants. This approach places fundamental importance on social equity and stakeholder participation in land-use decision-making, but makes no attempt to determine normative socially 'optimal' land-use plans. The EPM is thus a map-based set of evaluation tools for planners and stakeholders to use in their deliberations of what is 'best', considering a balancing of disparate interests within a regional perspective. Although

From theoretical to actual ecosystem services: mapping beneficiaries and spatial flows in ecosystem service assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Villa, Ferdinando; Batker, David; Harrison-Cox, Jennifer; Voigt, Brian; Johnson, Gary W.

2014-01-01

Ecosystem services mapping and modeling has focused more on supply than demand, until recently. Whereas the potential provision of economic benefits from ecosystems to people is often quantified through ecological production functions, the use of and demand for ecosystem services has received less attention, as have the spatial flows of services from ecosystems to people. However, new modeling approaches that map and quantify service-specific sources (ecosystem capacity to provide a service), sinks (biophysical or anthropogenic features that deplete or alter service flows), users (user locations and level of demand), and spatial flows can provide a more complete understanding of ecosystem services. Through a case study in Puget Sound, Washington State, USA, we quantify and differentiate between the theoretical or in situ provision of services, i.e., ecosystems’ capacity to supply services, and their actual provision when accounting for the location of beneficiaries and the spatial connections that mediate service flows between people and ecosystems. Our analysis includes five ecosystem services: carbon sequestration and storage, riverine flood regulation, sediment regulation for reservoirs, open space proximity, and scenic viewsheds. Each ecosystem service is characterized by different beneficiary groups and means of service flow. Using the ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) methodology we map service supply, demand, and flow, extending on simpler approaches used by past studies to map service provision and use. With the exception of the carbon sequestration service, regions that actually provided services to people, i.e., connected to beneficiaries via flow paths, amounted to 16-66% of those theoretically capable of supplying services, i.e., all ecosystems across the landscape. These results offer a more complete understanding of the spatial dynamics of ecosystem services and their effects, and may provide a sounder basis for economic

Mapping Ecosystem Services

OpenAIRE

Georgiev,Teodor; Burkhard,Benjamin; Maes,Joachim

2017-01-01

Ecosystem services are the contributions of ecosystem structure and function (in combination with other inputs) to human well-being. That means, humankind is strongly dependent on well-functioning ecosystems and natural capital that are the base for a constant flow of ecosystem services from nature to society. Therefore ecosystem services have the potential to become a major tool for policy and decision making on global, national, regional and local scales. Possible applications are manifold:...

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Land-Water-Ecosystem Quality in Polar and Mountainous Regions: A New Interregional Project (INT5153)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dercon, Gerd [Soil and Water Management and Crop Nutrition Subprogramme, Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, IAEA, Seibersdorf (Austria); Gerardo-Abaya, Jane [Division for Asia and the Pacific Section 2, Department of Technical Cooperation, IAEA, Vienna (Austria); Mavlyudov, Bulat [Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); others, and

2014-07-15

The INT5153 project aims to improve the understanding of the impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems on both a local and global scale for their better management and conservation. Seven core and five related benchmark sites have been selected from different global regions for specific assessments of the impact of climate change with the following expected outcomes and outputs: Outcomes: • Improved understanding of the impact of climate change on the cryosphere in polar and mountainous ecosystems and its effects on landwater- ecosystem quality at both local and global scales. • Recommendations for improvement of regional policies for soil and agricultural water management, conservation, and environmental protection in polar and mountainous regions. Outputs: • Specific strategies to minimize the adverse effects of, and adapt to, reduced seasonal snow and glacier covered areas on land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountain regions across the world. • Enhanced interregional network of laboratories and institutions competent in the assessment of climate change impacts on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality, using isotopic and nuclear techniques. • Increased number of young scientists trained in the use of isotope and nuclear techniques to assess the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountainous ecosystems. • Platform/database with global access for continuing work and monitoring of impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems at local and global scales, as well as for communicating findings to policy makers and communities. • Improved understanding of the effects of climate change disseminated through appropriate publications, policy briefs, and through a dedicated internet platform. • Methodologies and protocols for investigations in specific ecosystems and conservation/adaptation measures for agriculture areas.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Land-Water-Ecosystem Quality in Polar and Mountainous Regions: A New Interregional Project (INT5153)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dercon, Gerd; Gerardo-Abaya, Jane; Mavlyudov, Bulat

2014-01-01

The INT5153 project aims to improve the understanding of the impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems on both a local and global scale for their better management and conservation. Seven core and five related benchmark sites have been selected from different global regions for specific assessments of the impact of climate change with the following expected outcomes and outputs: Outcomes: • Improved understanding of the impact of climate change on the cryosphere in polar and mountainous ecosystems and its effects on landwater- ecosystem quality at both local and global scales. • Recommendations for improvement of regional policies for soil and agricultural water management, conservation, and environmental protection in polar and mountainous regions. Outputs: • Specific strategies to minimize the adverse effects of, and adapt to, reduced seasonal snow and glacier covered areas on land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountain regions across the world. • Enhanced interregional network of laboratories and institutions competent in the assessment of climate change impacts on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality, using isotopic and nuclear techniques. • Increased number of young scientists trained in the use of isotope and nuclear techniques to assess the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountainous ecosystems. • Platform/database with global access for continuing work and monitoring of impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems at local and global scales, as well as for communicating findings to policy makers and communities. • Improved understanding of the effects of climate change disseminated through appropriate publications, policy briefs, and through a dedicated internet platform. • Methodologies and protocols for investigations in specific ecosystems and conservation/adaptation measures for agriculture areas

A New Perspective on the Foraging Ecology of Apex Predators in the California Current: Results from a Fully Coupled Ecosystem Model

Science.gov (United States)

Fiechter, J.; Huckstadt, L. A.; Rose, K.; Costa, D. P.; Curchitser, E. N.; Hedstrom, K.; Edwards, C. A.; Moore, A. M.

2016-02-01

Results from a fully coupled end-to-end ecosystem model for the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem are used to describe the impact of environmental variability on the foraging ecology of its most abundant apex predator, California sea lions (Zalophus californianus). The ecosystem model consists of a biogeochemical submodel embedded in a regional ocean circulation submodel, and both coupled with a multi-species individual-based submodel for forage fish (sardine and anchovy) and California sea lions. For sea lions, bioenergetics and behavioral attributes are specified using available TOPP (Tagging Of Pacific Predators) data on their foraging patterns and diet in the California Current. Sardine and anchovy are explicitly included in the model as they represent important prey sources for California sea lions and exhibit significant interannual and decadal variability in population abundances. Output from a 20-year run (1989-2008) of the model demonstrates how different physical and biological processes control habitat utilization and foraging success of California sea lions on interannual time scales. A principal component analysis of sea lion foraging patterns indicates that the first mode of variability is alongshore and tied to sardine availability, while the second mode is cross-shore and associated with coastal upwelling intensity (a behavior consistent with male sea lion tracking data collected in 2004 vs. 2005). The results also illustrate how variability in environmental conditions and forage fish distribution affects sea lions feeding success. While specifically focusing on the foraging ecology of sea lions, our modeling framework has the ability to provide new and unique perspectives on trophic interactions in the California Current, or other regions where similar end-to-end ecosystem models may be implemented.

Mapping and modelling ecosystem services for science, policy and practice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Burkhard, B.; Crossman, N.; Nedkov, S.; Petz, K.; Alkemade, R.

2013-01-01

Ecosystem services are a significant research and policy topic and there are many modelling and mapping approaches aimed at understanding the stocks, demands and flows of ecosystem services on different spatial and temporal scales. The integration of geo-biophysical processes and structure

Ecosystem Demography Model: Scaling Vegetation Dynamics Across South America

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This model product contains the source code for the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED version 1.0) as well as model input and output data for a portion of...

[Regional and global estimates of carbon stocks and carbon sequestration capacity in forest ecosystems: A review].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Wei-wei; Wang, Xiao-ke; Lu, Fei; Ouyang, Zhi-yun

2015-09-01

As a dominant part of terrestrial ecosystems, forest ecosystem plays an important role in absorbing atmospheric CO2 and global climate change mitigation. From the aspects of zonal climate and geographical distribution, the present carbon stocks and carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystem were comprehensively examined based on the review of the latest literatures. The influences of land use change on forest carbon sequestration were analyzed, and factors that leading to the uncertainty of carbon sequestration assessment in forest ecosystem were also discussed. It was estimated that the current forest carbon stock was in the range of 652 to 927 Pg C and the carbon sequestration capacity was approximately 4.02 Pg C · a(-1). In terms of zonal climate, the carbon stock and carbon sequestration capacity of tropical forest were the maximum, about 471 Pg C and 1.02-1.3 Pg C · a(-1) respectively; then the carbon stock of boreal forest was about 272 Pg C, while its carbon sequestration capacity was the minimum, approximately 0.5 Pg C · a(-1); for temperate forest, the carbon stock was minimal, around 113 to 159 Pg C and its carbon sequestration capacity was 0.8 Pg C · a(-1). From the aspect of geographical distribution, the carbon stock of forest ecosystem in South America was the largest (187.7-290 Pg C), then followed by European (162.6 Pg C), North America (106.7 Pg C), Africa (98.2 Pg C) and Asia (74.5 Pg C), and Oceania (21.7 Pg C). In addition, carbon sequestration capacity of regional forest ecosystem was summed up as listed below: Tropical South America forest was the maximum (1276 Tg C · a(-1)), then were Tropical Africa (753 Tg C · a(-1)), North America (248 Tg C · a(-1)) and European (239 Tg C · a(-1)), and East Asia (98.8-136.5 Tg C · a(-1)) was minimum. To further reduce the uncertainty in the estimations of the carbon stock and carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystem, comprehensive application of long-term observation, inventories

A review on vegetation models and applicability to climate simulations at regional scale

Science.gov (United States)

Myoung, Boksoon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Park, Seon Ki

2011-11-01

The lack of accurate representations of biospheric components and their biophysical and biogeochemical processes is a great source of uncertainty in current climate models. The interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and the climate include exchanges not only of energy, water and momentum, but also of carbon and nitrogen. Reliable simulations of these interactions are crucial for predicting the potential impacts of future climate change and anthropogenic intervention on terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, two biogeographical (Neilson's rule-based model and BIOME), two biogeochemical (BIOME-BGC and PnET-BGC), and three dynamic global vegetation models (Hybrid, LPJ, and MC1) were reviewed and compared in terms of their biophysical and physiological processes. The advantages and limitations of the models were also addressed. Lastly, the applications of the dynamic global vegetation models to regional climate simulations have been discussed.

[Responses of Pinus tabulaeformis forest ecosystem in North China to climate change and elevated CO2: a simulation based on BIOME-BGC model and tree-ring data].

Science.gov (United States)

He, Jun-Jie; Peng, Xing-Yuan; Chen, Zhen-Ju; Cui, Ming-Xing; Zhang, Xian-Liang; Zhou, Chang-Hong

2012-07-01

Based on BIOME-BGC model and tree-ring data, a modeling study was conducted to estimate the dynamic changes of the net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabulaeformis forest ecosystem in North China in 1952-2008, and explore the responses of the radial growth and NPP to regional climate warming as well as the dynamics of the NPP in the future climate change scenarios. The simulation results indicated the annual NPP of the P. tabulaeformis ecosystem in 1952-2008 fluctuated from 244.12 to 645.31 g C x m(-2) x a(-1), with a mean value of 418.6 g C x m(-2) x a(-1) The mean air temperature in May-June and the precipitation from previous August to current July were the main factors limiting the radial growth of P. tabulaeformis and the NPP of P. tabulaeformis ecosystem. In the study period, both the radial growth and the NPP presented a decreasing trend due to the regional warming and drying climate condition. In the future climate scenarios, the NPP would have positive responses to the increase of air temperature, precipitation, and their combination. The elevated CO2 would benefit the increase of the NPP, and the increment would be about 16.1% due to the CO2 fertilization. At both ecosystem and regional scales, the tree-ring data would be an ideal proxy to predict the ecosystem dynamic change, and could be used to validate and calibrate the process-based ecosystem models including BIOME-BGC.

Effects of ice storm on forest ecosystem of southern China in 2008 Shaoqiang Wang1, Lei Zhou1, Weimin Ju2, Kun Huang1 1Key Lab of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing, 10010

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shaoqiang

2014-05-01

Evidence is mounting that an increase in extreme climate events has begun to occur worldwide during the recent decades, which affect biosphere function and biodiversity. Ecosystems returned to its original structures and functions to maintain its sustainability, which was closely dependent on ecosystem resilience. Understanding the resilience and recovery capacity of ecosystem to extreme climate events is essential to predicting future ecosystem responses to climate change. Given the overwhelming importance of this region in the overall carbon cycle of forest ecosystems in China, south China suffered a destructive ice storm in 2008. In this study, we used the number of freezing day and a process-based model (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator, BEPS) to characterize the spatial distribution of ice storm region in southeastern China and explore the impacts on carbon cycle of forest ecosystem over the past decade. The ecosystem variables, i.e. Net primary productivity (NPP), Evapotranspiration (ET), and Water use efficiency (WUE, the ratio of NPP to ET) from the outputs of BEPS models were used to detect the resistance and resilience of forest ecosystem in southern China. The pattern of ice storm-induced forest productivity widespread decline was closely related to the number of freezing day during the ice storm period. The NPP of forest area suffered heavy ice storm returned to normal status after five months with high temperature and ample moisture, indicated a high resilience of subtropical forest in China. The long-term changes of forest WUE remain stable, behaving an inherent sensitivity of ecosystem to extreme climate events. In addition, ground visits suggested that the recovery of forest productivity was attributed to rapid growth of understory. Understanding the variability and recovery threshold of ecosystem following extreme climate events help us to better simulate and predict the variability of ecosystem structure and function under current and

Ecosystem Demography Model: Scaling Vegetation Dynamics Across South America

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This model product contains the source code for the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED version 1.0) as well as model input and output data for a portion of South America...

A dynamic ecosystem process model for understanding interactions between permafrost thawing and vegetation responses in the arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, C.; Travis, B. J.; Fisher, R. A.; Wilson, C. J.; McDowell, N.

2010-12-01

The arctic is expected to play an important role in the Earth’s future climate due to the large carbon stocks that are stored in permafrost and peatlands, a substantial proportion of which may be released to the atmosphere due to permafrost thawing. There may be positive feedbacks of permafrost thawing on plant growth by releasing stored nitrogen and increasing rooting depth; however, vegetation response to other changing variables such as CO2 and temperature can also modify soil hydrology and energy fluxes, leading to either positive or negative feedbacks on permafrost thawing. Disentangling the interactions between permafrost thawing and vegetation growth is critical for assessing the potential role of arctic regions on current and future global carbon cycling. We have developed a mechanistic, regional, and spatially explicit dynamic ecosystem process model through the integration of a 3-D soil hydrology and biogeochemistry model (Arctic Hydrology, ARCHY) and a dynamic vegetation model (Ecosystem Demography, ED), to quantify the importance of plant-permafrost interactions to soil and plant carbon storage. This model integrates important processes including photosynthesis, transpiration, respiration, 3-D competition for light, 3-D soil hydrology, energy fluxes (ice melting in the soil and solar radiation interception by canopy), nitrogen cycles (microbial decomposition, nitrogen transportation in soil, passive and active nitrogen uptake by plants), species migration, and drought-related mortality. A sensitivity analysis has been implemented to assess the importance of the hydrological cycle, the nitrogen cycle and energy fluxes in regulating the above and below-ground carbon cycles in arctic regions. Our model can fill an important gap between field and global land surface models for assessing plot and regional level hypotheses in the context of global climate.

A methodology for ecosystem-scale modeling of selenium

Science.gov (United States)

Presser, T.S.; Luoma, S.N.

2010-01-01

The main route of exposure for selenium (Se) is dietary, yet regulations lack biologically based protocols for evaluations of risk. We propose here an ecosystem-scale model that conceptualizes and quantifies the variables that determinehow Se is processed from water through diet to predators. This approach uses biogeochemical and physiological factors from laboratory and field studies and considers loading, speciation, transformation to particulate material, bioavailability, bioaccumulation in invertebrates, and trophic transfer to predators. Validation of the model is through data sets from 29 historic and recent field case studies of Se-exposed sites. The model links Se concentrations across media (water, particulate, tissue of different food web species). It can be used to forecast toxicity under different management or regulatory proposals or as a methodology for translating a fish-tissue (or other predator tissue) Se concentration guideline to a dissolved Se concentration. The model illustrates some critical aspects of implementing a tissue criterion: 1) the choice of fish species determines the food web through which Se should be modeled, 2) the choice of food web is critical because the particulate material to prey kinetics of bioaccumulation differs widely among invertebrates, 3) the characterization of the type and phase of particulate material is important to quantifying Se exposure to prey through the base of the food web, and 4) the metric describing partitioning between particulate material and dissolved Se concentrations allows determination of a site-specific dissolved Se concentration that would be responsible for that fish body burden in the specific environment. The linked approach illustrates that environmentally safe dissolved Se concentrations will differ among ecosystems depending on the ecological pathways and biogeochemical conditions in that system. Uncertainties and model sensitivities can be directly illustrated by varying exposure

On the use of tower-flux measurements to assess the performance of global ecosystem models

Science.gov (United States)

El Maayar, M.; Kucharik, C.

2003-04-01

Global ecosystem models are important tools for the study of biospheric processes and their responses to environmental changes. Such models typically translate knowledge, gained from local observations, into estimates of regional or even global outcomes of ecosystem processes. A typical test of ecosystem models consists of comparing their output against tower-flux measurements of land surface-atmosphere exchange of heat and mass. To perform such tests, models are typically run using detailed information on soil properties (texture, carbon content,...) and vegetation structure observed at the experimental site (e.g., vegetation height, vegetation phenology, leaf photosynthetic characteristics,...). In global simulations, however, earth's vegetation is typically represented by a limited number of plant functional types (PFT; group of plant species that have similar physiological and ecological characteristics). For each PFT (e.g., temperate broadleaf trees, boreal conifer evergreen trees,...), which can cover a very large area, a set of typical physiological and physical parameters are assigned. Thus, a legitimate question arises: How does the performance of a global ecosystem model run using detailed site-specific parameters compare with the performance of a less detailed global version where generic parameters are attributed to a group of vegetation species forming a PFT? To answer this question, we used a multiyear dataset, measured at two forest sites with contrasting environments, to compare seasonal and interannual variability of surface-atmosphere exchange of water and carbon predicted by the Integrated BIosphere Simulator-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Two types of simulations were, thus, performed: a) Detailed runs: observed vegetation characteristics (leaf area index, vegetation height,...) and soil carbon content, in addition to climate and soil type, are specified for model run; and b) Generic runs: when only observed climates and soil types at the

Assessment of coastal management options by means of multilayered ecosystem models

Science.gov (United States)

Nobre, Ana M.; Ferreira, João G.; Nunes, João P.; Yan, Xiaojun; Bricker, Suzanne; Corner, Richard; Groom, Steve; Gu, Haifeng; Hawkins, Anthony J. S.; Hutson, Rory; Lan, Dongzhao; Silva, João D. Lencart e.; Pascoe, Philip; Telfer, Trevor; Zhang, Xuelei; Zhu, Mingyuan

2010-03-01

This paper presents a multilayered ecosystem modelling approach that combines the simulation of the biogeochemistry of a coastal ecosystem with the simulation of the main forcing functions, such as catchment loading and aquaculture activities. This approach was developed as a tool for sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. A key feature is to simulate management scenarios that account for changes in multiple uses and enable assessment of cumulative impacts of coastal activities. The model was applied to a coastal zone in China with large aquaculture production and multiple catchment uses, and where management efforts to improve water quality are under way. Development scenarios designed in conjunction with local managers and aquaculture producers include the reduction of fish cages and treatment of wastewater. Despite the reduction in nutrient loading simulated in three different scenarios, inorganic nutrient concentrations in the bay were predicted to exceed the thresholds for poor quality defined by Chinese seawater quality legislation. For all scenarios there is still a Moderate High to High nutrient loading from the catchment, so further reductions might be enacted, together with additional decreases in fish cage culture. The model predicts that overall, shellfish production decreases by 10%-28% using any of these development scenarios, principally because shellfish growth is being sustained by the substances to be reduced for improvement of water quality. The model outcomes indicate that this may be counteracted by zoning of shellfish aquaculture at the ecosystem level in order to optimize trade-offs between productivity and environmental effects. The present case study exemplifies the value of multilayered ecosystem modelling as a tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and for the adoption of ecosystem approaches for marine resource management. This modelling approach can be applied worldwide, and may be particularly useful for the application of

Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for carbon cycle studies

Science.gov (United States)

He, Yujie; Zhuang, Qianlai; McGuire, David; Liu, Yaling; Chen, Min

2013-01-01

Model-data fusion is a process in which field observations are used to constrain model parameters. How observations are used to constrain parameters has a direct impact on the carbon cycle dynamics simulated by ecosystem models. In this study, we present an evaluation of several options for the use of observations in modeling regional carbon dynamics and explore the implications of those options. We calibrated the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model on a hierarchy of three vegetation classification levels for the Alaskan boreal forest: species level, plant-functional-type level (PFT level), and biome level, and we examined the differences in simulated carbon dynamics. Species-specific field-based estimates were directly used to parameterize the model for species-level simulations, while weighted averages based on species percent cover were used to generate estimates for PFT- and biome-level model parameterization. We found that calibrated key ecosystem process parameters differed substantially among species and overlapped for species that are categorized into different PFTs. Our analysis of parameter sets suggests that the PFT-level parameterizations primarily reflected the dominant species and that functional information of some species were lost from the PFT-level parameterizations. The biome-level parameterization was primarily representative of the needleleaf PFT and lost information on broadleaf species or PFT function. Our results indicate that PFT-level simulations may be potentially representative of the performance of species-level simulations while biome-level simulations may result in biased estimates. Improved theoretical and empirical justifications for grouping species into PFTs or biomes are needed to adequately represent the dynamics of ecosystem functioning and structure.

Analyzing, Modelling, and Designing Software Ecosystems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manikas, Konstantinos

as the software development and distribution by a set of actors dependent on each other and the ecosystem. We commence on the hypothesis that the establishment of a software ecosystem on the telemedicine services of Denmark would address these issues and investigate how a software ecosystem can foster...... the development, implementation, and use of telemedicine services. We initially expand the theory of software ecosystems by contributing to the definition and understanding of software ecosystems, providing means of analyzing existing and designing new ecosystems, and defining and measuring the qualities...... of software ecosystems. We use these contributions to design a software ecosystem in the telemedicine services of Denmark with (i) a common platform that supports and promotes development from different actors, (ii) high software interaction, (iii) strong social network of actors, (iv) robust business...

A community-based framework for aquatic ecosystem models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trolle, D.; Hamilton, D.P.; Hipsey, M.R.; Bolding, K.; Bruggeman, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Janse, J.H.; Nielsen, A.; Jeppesen, E.; Elliott, J.A.; Makler-Pick, V.; Petzoldt, T.; Rinke, K.; Flindt, M.R.; Arhonditsis, G.B.; Gal, G.; Bjerring, R.; Tominaga, K.; Hoen, 't J.; Downing, A.S.; Marques, D.M.; Fragoso, C.R.; Sondergaard, M.; Hanson, P.C.

2012-01-01

Here, we communicate a point of departure in the development of aquatic ecosystem models, namely a new community-based framework, which supports an enhanced and transparent union between the collective expertise that exists in the communities of traditional ecologists and model developers. Through a

Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: a community perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, A.B.G.; Gerla, D.J.

2015-01-01

Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality

How climate affects ecosystems: A Canadian perspective on what we know

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowe, S.; Rizzo, B.

1990-01-01

The effects of climate change on ecosystems is discussed from the Canadian perspective. After a brief definition of terms, the implications of ecosystem theory are elaborated on. Impact models generated from altered climatic regimes can be categorized into two methodological streams: correlation modelling and dynamic modelling. Correlation modelling characterizes change on the basis of transfer functions linking climatic parameters and indices to specific ecological units. Correlation models can be applied at the species level or at the broader ecosystem level. Dynamic models are based on life history characteristics from birth to death, tracking such details as plant abundance, height and leaf area. Such models are most useful at the local rather than global scale. In Canada a number of broad scale correlation models have been attempted. These include the potential impacts of climatic change in the Praire provinces and Northwest Territories, a study relating the growing degree day isolines to ecological boundaries established in the ecoclimatic regions of Canada map, and the incorporation of nine climatic parameters in a correlation exercise, again using the ecoclimatic regions map. 14 refs

An Ecosystem Model for the Simulation of Physical and Biological Oceanic Processes-IDAPAK User's Guide and Applications

Science.gov (United States)

McClain, Charles R.; Arrigo, Kevin; Murtugudde, Ragu; Signorini, Sergio R.; Tai, King-Sheng

1998-01-01

This TM describes the development, testing, and application of a 4-component (phytoplankton, zooplankton, nitrate, and ammonium) ecosystem model capable of simulating oceanic biological processes. It also reports and documents an in-house software package (Interactive Data Analysis Package - IDAPAK) for interactive data analysis of geophysical fields, including those related to the forcing, verification, and analysis of the ecosystem model. Two regions were studied in the Pacific: the Warm Pool (WP) in the Equatorial Pacific (165 deg. E at the equator) and at Ocean Weather Station P (OWS P) in the Northeast Pacific (50 deg. N, 145 deg. W). The WP results clearly indicate that the upwelling at 100 meters correlates well with surface blooms. The upwelling events in late 1987 and 1990 produced dramatic increases in the surface layer values of all 4 ecosystem components, whereas the spring-summer deep mixing events, do not seem to incur a significant response in any of the ecosystem quantities. The OWS P results show that the monthly profiles of temperature, the annual cycles of solar irradiance, and 0- to 50-m integrated nitrate accurately reproduce observed values. Annual primary production is 190 gC/m(exp 2)/yr, which is consistent with recent observations but is much greater than earlier estimates.

ESTIMAP: A GIS-BASED MODEL TO MAP ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Zulian

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Policies of the European Union which affect the use or protection of natural resources increasingly need spatial data on the supply, the flow and the demand of ecosystem services. The model ESTIMAP was developed to this purpose. ESTIMAP departs from land cover and land use maps to which it adds other spatial information with the objective to map various ecosystem services. This study introduces the ESTIMAP map as tool to support the mapping and modelling of ecosystem services at European scale. Examples are provided for three regulating ecosystem services, air quality regulation, coastal protection, and pollination and one cultural ecosystem services, recreation. 

Future directions of ecosystem science

Science.gov (United States)

Baron, Jill S.; Galvin, Kathleen A.

1990-01-01

Scientific knowledge about ecosystem structure and function has expanded greatly during the past few decades. Terrestrial and aquatic nutrient cycling, ecosystem energetics, population dynamics, belowground processes, and food webs have been studied at the plot, stand, watershed, and landscape levels at many locations around the globe. Ideas about terrestrial-atmospheric interactions and human interference in these processes have changed dramatically. There is new appreciation of the need to incorporate into ecosystem studies the interactions between human populations and the ecosystem, not only because humans affect ecosystem processes, but because these systems support human populations (Glantz 1988, Holden 1988, Parry et al. 1988, WCED 1987). Recent advances in ecosystem science are due, in part, to technological improvements in computing power, new laboratory and field physical and chemical analytical techniques, and satellite imagery for remote sensing of Earth's structure and dynamics. Modeling and geographic information systems have provided the capability for integrating multiple data sets with process simulations to generate hypotheses about regional ecosystem function. Concurrent with these scientific developments has been a growing concern about the links between the health of the environment and world-wide industrial, land, and resource-management practices. Environmental damage at the local level was widely recognized in the 1960s, prompting the environmental movement of that decade. Regional environmental problems with multiple effects and politically difficult solutions have been perceived more recently; the issue of acidic deposition provides an example of such a second-generation concern (Clark and Holling 1985). Today there is a growing awareness of global-scale environmental degradation brought about by the combined actions of all peoples on Earth (Clark 1989, Woodmansee et al. 1988). The three levels of environmental concern--local, regional

Modelling radiocesium fluxes in forest ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaw, G.; Kliashtorin, A.; Mamikhin, S.; Shcheglov, A.; Rafferty, B.; Dvornik, A.; Zhuchenko, T.; Kuchma, N.

1996-01-01

Monitoring of radiocesium inventories and fluxes has been carried out in forest ecosystems in Ukraine, Belarus and Ireland to determine distributions and rates of migration. This information has been used to construct and calibrate mathematical models which are being used to predict the likely longevity of contamination of forests and forest products such as timber following the Chernobyl accident

Assessing ecosystem response to multiple disturbances and climate change in South Africa using ground- and satellite-based measurements and model

Science.gov (United States)

Kutsch, W. L.; Falge, E. M.; Brümmer, C.; Mukwashi, K.; Schmullius, C.; Hüttich, C.; Odipo, V.; Scholes, R. J.; Mudau, A.; Midgley, G.; Stevens, N.; Hickler, T.; Scheiter, S.; Martens, C.; Twine, W.; Iiyambo, T.; Bradshaw, K.; Lück, W.; Lenfers, U.; Thiel-Clemen, T.; du Toit, J.

2015-12-01

Sub-Saharan Africa currently experiences rapidly growing human population, intrinsically tied to substantial changes in land use on shrubland, savanna and mixed woodland ecosystems due to over-exploitation. Significant conversions driving degradation, affecting fire frequency and water availability, and fueling climate change are expected to increase in the immediate future. However, measured data of greenhouse gas emissions as affected by land use change are scarce to entirely lacking from this region. The project 'Adaptive Resilience of Southern African Ecosystems' (ARS AfricaE) conducts research and develops scenarios of ecosystem development under climate change, for management support in conservation or for planning rural area development. This will be achieved by (1) creation of a network of research clusters (paired sites with natural and altered vegetation) along an aridity gradient in South Africa for ground-based micrometeorological in-situ measurements of energy and matter fluxes, (2) linking biogeochemical functions with ecosystem structure, and eco-physiological properties, (3) description of ecosystem disturbance (and recovery) in terms of ecosystem function such as carbon balance components and water use efficiency, (4) set-up of individual-based models to predict ecosystem dynamics under (post) disturbance managements, (5) combination with long-term landscape dynamic information derived from remote sensing and aerial photography, and (6) development of sustainable management strategies for disturbed ecosystems and land use change. Emphasis is given on validation (by a suite of field measurements) of estimates obtained from eddy covariance, model approaches and satellite derivations.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change and human activities on environment and ecosystem services in arid regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, Shereif H; Gan, Thian Y

2018-08-15

The implications of anthropogenic climate change, human activities and land use change (LUC) on the environment and ecosystem services in the coastal regions of Saudi Arabia were analyzed. Earth observations data was used to drive land use categories between 1970 and 2014. Next, a Markov-CA model was developed to characterize the dynamic of LUC between 2014 and 2100 and their impacts on regions' climate and environment. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to temperature, precipitation and greenhouse gases data to investigate the presence of anthropogenic climate change. Lastly, climate models were used to project future climate change between 2014 and 2100. The analysis of LUC revealed that between 1970 and 2014, built up areas experienced the greatest growth during the study period, leading to a significant monotonic trend. Urban areas increased by 2349.61km 2 between 1970 and 2014, an average increase of >53.4km 2 /yr. The projected LUC between 2014 and 2100 indicate a continued increase in urban areas and irrigated cropland. Human alteration of land use from natural vegetation and forests to other uses after 1970, resulted in a loss, degradation, and fragmentation, all of which usually have devastating effects on the biodiversity of the region. Resulting in a statistically significant change point in temperature anomaly after 1968 with a warming trend of 0.24°C/decade and a downward trend in precipitation anomaly of 12.2mm/decade. Total greenhouse gas emissions including all anthropogenic sources showed a statistically significant positive trend of 78,090Kt/decade after 1991. This is reflected in the future projection of temperature anomaly between 1900 and 2100 with a future warming trend of 0.19°C/decade. In conclusion, human activities, industrial revelation, deforestation, land use transformation and increase in greenhouse gases had significant implications on the environment and ecosystem services of the study area

Net exchanges of CO2, CH4 and N2O between the terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere in boreal and arctic region: Towards a full greenhouse gas budget

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, B.; Tian, H.; Lu, C.; Yang, J.; Kamaljit, K.; Pan, S.

2014-12-01

Boreal and arctic terrestrial ecosystem is a unique ecological region due to large portion of wetland and permafrost distribution. Increasing disturbances, like permafrost-thaw, fire event, climate extreme, would greatly change the patterns and variations of greenhouse gas emission and further affect the feedback between terrestrial ecosystem and climate change. Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) accounted for more than 85% of the radioactive forcing (RF) due to long-lived greenhouse gases. However, few studies have considered the full budget of three gases together in this region. In this study, we used a process-based model (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model), driven by multiple global change factors, to quantify the magnitude, spatial and temporal variation of CO2, CH4 and N2O across the boreal and arctic regions. Simulated results have been evaluated against field observations, inventory-based and atmospheric inversion estimates. By implementing a set of factorial simulations, we further quantify the relative contribution of climate, atmospheric composition, fire to the CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes. Continued warming climate potentially could shift the inter-annual and intra-annual variation of greenhouse gases fluxes. The understanding of full budget in this region could provide insights for reasonable future projection, which is also crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies.

Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorner, W; Spachinger, K; Metzka, R; Porter, M

2008-01-01

Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

Linear compartment model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

1977-01-01

Systems ecology techniques have been useful in simulating the fate and dynamics of radionuclides in forest ecosystems. The applications of systems models in this context are twofold: projection of the time-dependent distribution of radioisotopes among various ecosystems components, and manipulation of the modeled system to determine the sensitivity of components to variation in transfer coefficients and, thereby, identify critical fluxes affecting system behavior. The present paper describes a systems model that projects the possible fate of plutonium in a deciduous forest ecosystem. The isotopes of interest are 239 Pu and 240 Pu which have physical half lives of 2.44 x 10 4 and 6540 years, respectively. These isotopes are indistinguishable by alpha spectrometry hence 239 Pu is used to refer to both

Exploring Ecosystems and Health by Shifting to a Regional Focus: Perspectives from the Oceania EcoHealth Chapter

Science.gov (United States)

Kingsley, Jonathan; Patrick, Rebecca; Horwitz, Pierre; Parkes, Margot; Jenkins, Aaron; Massy, Charles; Henderson-Wilson, Claire; Arabena, Kerry

2015-01-01

This article highlights contributions that can be made to the public health field by incorporating “ecosystem approaches to health” to tackle future environmental and health challenges at a regional level. This qualitative research reviews attitudes and understandings of the relationship between public health and the environment and the priorities, aspirations and challenges of a newly established group (the Oceania EcoHealth Chapter) who are attempting to promote these principles. Ten semi-structured interviews with Oceania EcoHealth Chapter members highlighted the important role such groups can play in informing organisations working in the Oceania region to improve both public health and environmental outcomes simultaneously. Participants of this study emphasise the need to elevate Indigenous knowledge in Oceania and the role regional groups play in this regard. They also emphasis that regional advocacy and ecosystem approaches to health could bypass silos in knowledge and disciplinary divides, with groups like the Oceania EcoHealth Chapter acting as a mechanism for knowledge exchange, engagement, and action at a regional level with its ability to bridge the gap between environmental stewardship and public health. PMID:26473903

Small diversity effects on ocean primary production under environmental change in a diversity-resolving ocean ecosystem model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Prowe, Friederike; Pahlow, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

2013-01-01

Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic diversity. Diversity, however, can affect functions such as primary production and their sensitivity to environmental changes. Using a global ocean ecosystem model...... the diversity effects on ecosystem functioning captured in ocean ecosystem models....

'Ecological value added' in an integrated ecosystem-economy model. An indicator for sustainability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kratena, Kurt

2004-01-01

This paper sets up an input-output system of the relevant ecosystem flows that determine the carbon cycle in the global ecosystem. Introducing energy as the value added component in the ecosystem allows to calculate ecosystem prices expressed in 'energy values'. Linking the ecosystem with the economy in an integrated input-output model then allows to calculate prices of economic activities and of ecosystem activities. In analogy to the 'Ecological Footprint', where productive land is needed to absorb anthropogenic emissions, in this integrated input-output model additional carbon sinks are introduced for emission absorption. These carbon sinks need solar energy input, i.e. 'ecological value added'. Emission absorption as well as GDP therefore become activities valued in the numeraire of the integrated system, i.e.'energy values'. From that sustainability indicators can be derived

Modeled responses of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO2: a comparison of simulations by the biogeochemistry models of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP).

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Yude; Melillo, Jerry M; McGuire, A David; Kicklighter, David W; Pitelka, Louis F; Hibbard, Kathy; Pierce, Lars L; Running, Steven W; Ojima, Dennis S; Parton, William J; Schimel, David S

1998-04-01

Although there is a great deal of information concerning responses to increases in atmospheric CO 2 at the tissue and plant levels, there are substantially fewer studies that have investigated ecosystem-level responses in the context of integrated carbon, water, and nutrient cycles. Because our understanding of ecosystem responses to elevated CO 2 is incomplete, modeling is a tool that can be used to investigate the role of plant and soil interactions in the response of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated CO 2 . In this study, we analyze the responses of net primary production (NPP) to doubled CO 2 from 355 to 710 ppmv among three biogeochemistry models in the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), Century, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). For the conterminous United States, doubled atmospheric CO 2 causes NPP to increase by 5% in Century, 8% in TEM, and 11% in BIOME-BGC. Multiple regression analyses between the NPP response to doubled CO 2 and the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of biomes or grid cells indicate that there are negative relationships between precipitation and the response of NPP to doubled CO 2 for all three models. In contrast, there are different relationships between temperature and the response of NPP to doubled CO 2 for the three models: there is a negative relationship in the responses of BIOME-BGC, no relationship in the responses of Century, and a positive relationship in the responses of TEM. In BIOME-BGC, the NPP response to doubled CO 2 is controlled by the change in transpiration associated with reduced leaf conductance to water vapor. This change affects soil water, then leaf area development and, finally, NPP. In Century, the response of NPP to doubled CO 2 is controlled by changes in decomposition rates associated with increased soil moisture that results from reduced evapotranspiration. This change affects nitrogen availability for plants, which

Integrating ecosystem services in the assessment of urban energy trajectories – A study of the Stockholm Region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mörtberg, Ulla; Goldenberg, Romain; Kalantari, Zahra; Kordas, Olga; Deal, Brian; Balfors, Berit; Cvetkovic, Vladimir

2017-01-01

Urban development trajectories are changing towards compact, energy-efficient cities and renewable energy sources, and this will strongly affect ecosystem services (ES) that cities are dependent on but tend to disregard. Such ES can be provisioning, regulating and cultural ES, around which competition over land resources will increase with energy system shifts. Much of this can be foreseen to take place within urbanising regions that are simultaneously the living environment of a major part of the human population today. In order to inform critical urban policy decisions, tools for integrated assessment of urban energy and transport options and ecosystem services need to be developed. For this purpose, a case study of the Stockholm region was conducted, analysing three scenarios for the future urbanisation of the region, integrating a transport energy perspective and an ES perspective. The results showed that a dense but polycentric development pattern gives more opportunities for sustainable urban development, while the dense monocentric scenario has apparent drawbacks from an ES perspective. The methodology is compatible with a model integration platform for urban policy support and will thus enable integrated policy assessment of complex urban systems, with the goal of increasing their sustainability. - Highlights: • A diffuse urban pattern leads to low access to jobs and high energy consumption. • A dense monocentric urban pattern implies high energy efficiency and low access to ES. • A dense polycentric urban pattern allows for a combination of urban functions. • ES needs to be integrated into sustainability assessments of urban policy options.

A terrestrial ecosystem model (SOLVEG) coupled with atmospheric gas and aerosol exchange processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katata, Genki; Ota, Masakazu

2017-01-01

In order to predict the impact of atmospheric pollutants (gases and aerosols) to the terrestrial ecosystem, new schemes for calculating the processes of dry deposition of gases and aerosols, and water and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems were implemented in the one-dimensional atmosphere-SOiL-VEGetation model, SOLVEG. We made performance tests at various vegetation areas to validate the newly developed schemes. In this report, the detail in each modeled process is described with an instruction how to use the modified SOLVEG. The framework of 'terrestrial ecosystem model' was developed for investigation of a change in water, energy, and carbon cycles associated with global warming and air pollution and its impact on terrestrial ecosystems. (author)

Modeling mechanisms of vegetation change due to fire in a semi-arid ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

White, J.D.; Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.; Randall, L.J.; Swint, P.

2008-01-01

Vegetation growth and community composition in semi-arid environments is determined by water availability and carbon assimilation mechanisms specific to different plant types. Disturbance also impacts vegetation productivity and composition dependent on area affected, intensity, and frequency factors. In this study, a new spatially explicit ecosystem model is presented for the purpose of simulating vegetation cover type changes associated with fire disturbance in the northern Chihuahuan Desert region. The model is called the Landscape and Fire Simulator (LAFS) and represents physiological activity of six functional plant types incorporating site climate, fire, and seed dispersal routines for individual grid cells. We applied this model for Big Bend National Park, Texas, by assessing the impact of wildfire on the trajectory of vegetation communities over time. The model was initialized and calibrated based on landcover maps derived from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data acquired in 1986 and 1999 coupled with plant biomass measurements collected in the field during 2000. Initial vegetation cover change analysis from satellite data showed shrub encroachment during this time period that was captured in the simulated results. A synthetic 50-year climate record was derived from historical meteorological data to assess system response based on initial landcover conditions. This simulation showed that shrublands increased to the detriment of grass and yucca-ocotillo vegetation cover types indicating an ecosystem-level trajectory for shrub encroachment. Our analysis of simulated fires also showed that fires significantly reduced site biomass components including leaf area, stem, and seed biomass in this semi-arid ecosystem. In contrast to other landscape simulation models, this new model incorporates detailed physiological responses of functional plant types that will allow us to simulated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 occurring with climate change coupled with fire

Urban ecosystem modeling and global change: Potential for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Shaoqing; Chen, Bin; Fath, Brian D.

2014-01-01

Urbanization is a strong and extensive driver that causes environmental pollution and climate change from local to global scale. Modeling cities as ecosystems has been initiated by a wide range of scientists as a key to addressing challenging problems concomitant with urbanization. In this paper, ‘urban ecosystem modeling (UEM)’ is defined in an inter-disciplinary context to acquire a broad perception of urban ecological properties and their interactions with global change. Furthermore, state-of-the-art models of urban ecosystems are reviewed, categorized as top-down models (including materials/energy-oriented models and structure-oriented models), bottom-up models (including land use-oriented models and infrastructure-oriented models), or hybrid models thereof. Based on the review of UEM studies, a future framework for explicit UEM is proposed based the integration of UEM approaches of different scales, guiding more rational urban management and efficient emissions mitigation. - Highlights: • Urban ecosystems modeling (UEM) is defined in an interdisciplinary context. • State-of-the-art models for UEM are critically reviewed and compared. • An integrated framework for explicit UEM is proposed under global change. - State-of-the-art models of urban ecosystem modeling (UEM) are reviewed for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

Loess ecosystems of northern Alaska: Regional gradient and toposequence at Prudhoe Bay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walker, D.A.; Everett, K.R.

1991-01-01

Loess-dominated ecosystems cover ∼ 14% (11,000 km 2 ) of the Arctic Coastal Plain and much of the northern portion of the Arctic Foothills. Knowledge of this poorly known ecosystem is important for sound land-use planning of the expanding developments in the region and for understanding the paleoecological dynamics of eolian systems that once dominated much of northern Alaska. A conceptual alkaline-tundra toposequence includes eight common vegetation types and associated soils and vegetation downwind of the Sagavanirktok River. Properties of loess tundra important for land-use planning include: (1) its high ice content, which contributes to its susceptibility to thermokarst; (2) high salinities, which hamper revegetation efforts; and (3) presence of certain plant species such as Dryas intergrifolia, which are particularly sensitive to disturbance. The loess gradient provides a natural analogue for road dust, and extensive disturbance associated with oil-field development

Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Minchao; Smith, Benjamin; Schurgers, Guy; Lindström, Joe; Rummukainen, Markku; Samuelsson, Patrick

2013-04-01

Terrestrial ecosystems have been demonstrated to play a significant role within the climate system, amplifying or dampening climate change via biogeophysical and biogeochemical exchange with the atmosphere and vice versa (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004). Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change and studies of vegetation-climate feedback mechanisms on Africa are still limited. Our study is the first application of A coupled Earth system model at regional scale and resolution over Africa. We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feedback to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feedback to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and

Carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Yellowstone National Park predicted from remote sensing data and simulation modeling.

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Potter, Christopher; Klooster, Steven; Crabtree, Robert; Huang, Shengli; Gross, Peggy; Genovese, Vanessa

2011-08-11

A simulation model based on remote sensing data for spatial vegetation properties has been used to estimate ecosystem carbon fluxes across Yellowstone National Park (YNP). The CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model was applied at a regional scale to estimate seasonal and annual carbon fluxes as net primary production (NPP) and soil respiration components. Predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux of CO2 is estimated from the model for carbon sinks and sources over multi-year periods that varied in climate and (wildfire) disturbance histories. Monthly Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) image coverages from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument (from 2000 to 2006) were direct inputs to the model. New map products have been added to CASA from airborne remote sensing of coarse woody debris (CWD) in areas burned by wildfires over the past two decades. Model results indicated that relatively cooler and wetter summer growing seasons were the most favorable for annual plant production and net ecosystem carbon gains in representative landscapes of YNP. When summed across vegetation class areas, the predominance of evergreen forest and shrubland (sagebrush) cover was evident, with these two classes together accounting for 88% of the total annual NPP flux of 2.5 Tg C yr-1 (1 Tg = 1012 g) for the entire Yellowstone study area from 2000-2006. Most vegetation classes were estimated as net ecosystem sinks of atmospheric CO2 on annual basis, making the entire study area a moderate net sink of about +0.13 Tg C yr-1. This average sink value for forested lands nonetheless masks the contribution of areas burned during the 1988 wildfires, which were estimated as net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere, totaling to a NEP flux of -0.04 Tg C yr-1 for the entire burned area. Several areas burned in the 1988 wildfires were estimated to be among the lowest in overall yearly NPP, namely the Hellroaring Fire, Mink Fire, and Falls Fire areas. Rates of

Integrated regional development of the Baltic region towards the sustainability of its ecosystem; A platform for thinking

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Straszak, A; Owsinski, J W [Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (PL); Kairiukstis, L [Lithuanian Forest Research Institute, Kaunas, Lithuanian SSR (SU)

1989-01-01

The paper presents a systemic framework for the assessment of the current state and future development of the Baltic ecosystem as an integral part of a broader Baltic region system involving social, economic and ecological aspects. The paper formulates and adresses the following questions: with respect to what aspects is this region a system How do various systemicity reaches overlap How can be systemic behaviour rectified and /or improved, special attention being paid to inter-system synergy The focus is on the resource and ecological system of Baltic, as the potentially generative one for the other systemic structures. It is shown, though, that these other structures are not adequate to the generative one, and that this inadequacy impinges on both the economic and ecological performance. Thus, it is proposed that economic and social activities within the Baltic region should match better the variety of its resource and ecological substratum, thereby allowing smoother and more rapid development of the region and presservation of the sustainability of this devleopment. Examples range from economic cooperation and transport to tourism and recreation, and nature protection. (author).

Quantifying changes in multiple ecosystem services during 1992-2012 in the Sanjiang Plain of China.

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Wang, Zongming; Mao, Dehua; Li, Lin; Jia, Mingming; Dong, Zhangyu; Miao, Zhenghong; Ren, Chunying; Song, Changchun

2015-05-01

Rapid and periodic assessment of the impact of land cover changes on ecosystem services at regional levels is essential to understanding services and sustainability of ecosystems. This study focused on quantifying and assessing changes of multiple ecosystem services in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a result of land cover changes over the period of 1992-2012. This region is important for its large area of natural wetlands and intensive agriculture. The ecosystem services that were assessed for this region included its regulating services (water yield and ecosystem carbon stocks), supporting services (suitable waterbird habitats), and provisioning services (food production), and the approach to the assessment was composed of the surface energy balance algorithms for land (SEBAL), soil survey re-sampling method and an empirical waterbird habitat suitability model. This large scale and integrated investigation represents the first systematic evaluation on the status of ecosystem carbon stocks in the Sanjiang Plain in addition to the development of an effective model for analysis of waterbird habitat suitability with the use of both remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS). More importantly, the result from this study has confirmed trade-offs between ecosystem services and negative consequences to environment in this region. The trade-offs were typically manifested by increased water yield and significantly grown food production, which is in contrast with significant losses in ecosystem carbon stocks (-14%) and suitable waterbird habitats (-23%) mainly due to the conversion of land cover from wetland to farmland. This finding implies that land use planning and policy making for this economically important region should take ecosystem service losses into account in order to preserve its natural ecosystems in the best interest of society. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regionalizing Aquatic Ecosystems Based on the River Subbasin Taxonomy Concept and Spatial Clustering Techniques

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Jiahu Zhao

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Aquatic ecoregions were increasingly used as spatial units for aquatic ecosystem management at the watershed scale. In this paper, the principle of including land area, comprehensiveness and dominance, conjugation and hierarchy were selected as regionalizing principles. Elevation and drainage density were selected as the regionalizing indicators for the delineation of level I aquatic ecoregions, and percent of construction land area, percent of cultivated land area, soil type and slope for the level II. Under the support of GIS technology, the spatial distribution maps of the two indicators for level I and the four indicators for level II aquatic ecoregion delineation were generated from the raster data based on the 1,107 subwatersheds. River subbasin taxonomy concept, two-step spatial clustering analysis approach and manual-assisted method were used to regionalize aquatic ecosystems in the Taihu Lake watershed. Then the Taihu Lake watershed was divided into two level I aquatic ecoregions, including Ecoregion I1 and Ecoregion I2, and five level II aquatic subecoregions, including Subecoregion II11, Subecoregion II12, Subecoregion II21, Subecoregion II22 and Subecoregion II23. Moreover, the characteristics of the two level I aquatic ecoregions and five level II aquatic subecoregions in the Taihu Lake watershed were summarized, showing that there were significant differences in topography, socio-economic development, water quality and aquatic ecology, etc. The results of quantitative comparison of aquatic life also indicated that the dominant species of fish, benthic density, biomass, dominant species, Shannon-Wiener diversity index, Margalef species richness index, Pielou evenness index and ecological dominance showed great spatial variability between the two level I aquatic ecoregions and five level II aquatic subecoregions. It reflected the spatial heterogeneities and the uneven natures of aquatic ecosystems in the Taihu Lake watershed.

Generating daily weather data for ecosystem modelling in the Congo River Basin

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Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan A.

2010-05-01

Daily weather data are an important constraint for diverse applications in ecosystem research. In particular, temperature and precipitation are the main drivers for forest ecosystem productivity. Mechanistic modelling theory heavily relies on daily values for minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, incident solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit. Although the number of climate measurement stations increased during the last centuries, there are still regions with limited climate data. For example, in the WMO database there are only 16 stations located in Gabon with daily weather measurements. Additionally, the available time series are heavily affected by measurement errors or missing values. In the WMO record for Gabon, on average every second day is missing. Monthly means are more robust and may be estimated over larger areas. Therefore, a good alternative is to interpolate monthly mean values using a sparse network of measurement stations, and based on these monthly data generate daily weather data with defined characteristics. The weather generator MarkSim was developed to produce climatological time series for crop modelling in the tropics. It provides daily values for maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. The monthly means can either be derived from the internal climate surfaces or prescribed as additional inputs. We compared the generated outputs observations from three climate stations in Gabon (Lastourville, Moanda and Mouilla) and found that maximum temperature and solar radiation were heavily overestimated during the long dry season. This is due to the internal dependency of the solar radiation estimates to precipitation. With no precipitation a cloudless sky is assumed and thus high incident solar radiation and a large diurnal temperature range. However, in reality it is cloudy in the Congo River Basin during the long dry season. Therefore, we applied a correction factor to solar radiation and temperature range

Trophic flow structure of a neotropical estuary in northeastern Brazil and the comparison of ecosystem model indicators of estuaries

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Lira, Alex; Angelini, Ronaldo; Le Loc'h, François; Ménard, Frédéric; Lacerda, Carlos; Frédou, Thierry; Lucena Frédou, Flávia

2018-06-01

We developed an Ecopath model for the Estuary of Sirinhaém River (SIR), a small-sized system surrounded by mangroves, subject to high impact, mainly by the sugar cane and other farming industries in order to describe the food web structure and trophic interactions. In addition, we compared our findings with those of 20 available Ecopath estuarine models for tropical, subtropical and temperate regions, aiming to synthesize the knowledge on trophic dynamics and provide a comprehensive analysis of the structures and functioning of estuaries. Our model consisted of 25 compartments and its indicators were within the expected range for estuarine areas around the world. The average trophic transfer efficiency for the entire system was 11.8%, similar to the theoretical value of 10%. The Keystone Index and MTI (Mixed Trophic Impact) analysis indicated that the snook (Centropomus undecimalis and Centropomus parallelus) and jack (Caranx latus and Caranx hippos) are considered as key resources in the system, revealing their high impact in the food web. Both groups have a high ecological and commercial relevance, despite the unregulated fisheries. As result of the comparison of ecosystem model indicators in estuaries, differences in the ecosystem structure from the low latitude zones (tropical estuaries) to the high latitude zones (temperate system) were noticed. The structure of temperate and sub-tropical estuaries is based on high flows of detritus and export, while tropical systems have high biomass, respiration and consumption rates. Higher values of System Omnivory Index (SOI) and Overhead (SO) were observed in the tropical and subtropical estuaries, denoting a more complex food chain. Globally, none of the estuarine models were classified as fully mature ecosystems, although the tropical ecosystems were considered more mature than the subtropical and temperate ecosystems. This study is an important contribution to the trophic modeling of estuaries, which may also help

Ecosystem structure and trophic analysis of Angolan fishery landings

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Ronaldo Angelini

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Information on the mean trophic level of fishery landings in Angola and the output from a preliminary Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE model were used to examine the dynamics of the Angolan marine ecosystem. Results were compared with the nearby Namibian and South African ecosystems, which share some of the exploited fish populations. The results show that: (i The mean trophic level of Angola’s fish landings has not decreased over the years; (ii There are significant correlations between the landings of Angola, Namibia and South Africa; (iii The ecosystem attributes calculated by the EwE models for the three ecosystems were similar, and the main differences were related to the magnitude of flows and biomass; (iv The similarity among ecosystem trends for Namibia, South Africa and Angola re-emphasizes the need to continue collaborative regional studies on the fish stocks and their ecosystems. To improve the Angolan model it is necessary to gain a better understanding of plankton dynamics because plankton are essential for Sardinella spp. An expanded analysis of the gut contents of the fish species occupying Angola’s coastline is also necessary.

Modeling carbon and nitrogen biogeochemistry in forest ecosystems

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Changsheng Li; Carl Trettin; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty; Klaus Butterbach-Bahl

2005-01-01

A forest biogeochemical model, Forest-DNDC, was developed to quantify carbon sequestration in and trace gas emissions from forest ecosystems. Forest-DNDC was constructed by integrating two existing moels, PnET and DNDC, with several new features including nitrification, forest litter layer, soil freezing and thawing etc, PnET is a forest physiological model predicting...

Improving ecosystem-scale modeling of evapotranspiration using ecological mechanisms that account for compensatory responses following disturbance

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Millar, David J.; Ewers, Brent E.; Mackay, D. Scott; Peckham, Scott; Reed, David E.; Sekoni, Adewale

2017-09-01

Mountain pine beetle outbreaks in western North America have led to extensive forest mortality, justifiably generating interest in improving our understanding of how this type of ecological disturbance affects hydrological cycles. While observational studies and simulations have been used to elucidate the effects of mountain beetle mortality on hydrological fluxes, an ecologically mechanistic model of forest evapotranspiration (ET) evaluated against field data has yet to be developed. In this work, we use the Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES) to incorporate the ecohydrological impacts of mountain pine beetle disturbance on ET for a lodgepole pine-dominated forest equipped with an eddy covariance tower. An existing degree-day model was incorporated that predicted the life cycle of mountain pine beetles, along with an empirically derived submodel that allowed sap flux to decline as a function of temperature-dependent blue stain fungal growth. The eddy covariance footprint was divided into multiple cohorts for multiple growing seasons, including representations of recently attacked trees and the compensatory effects of regenerating understory, using two different spatial scaling methods. Our results showed that using a multiple cohort approach matched eddy covariance-measured ecosystem-scale ET fluxes well, and showed improved performance compared to model simulations assuming a binary framework of only areas of live and dead overstory. Cumulative growing season ecosystem-scale ET fluxes were 8 - 29% greater using the multicohort approach during years in which beetle attacks occurred, highlighting the importance of including compensatory ecological mechanism in ET models.

Spatial Heterogeneity of Typical Ecosystem Services and Their Relationships in Different Ecological–Functional Zones in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region, China

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Zhen Xie

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Recognizing changes in ecosystem services (ES and their relationships is the basis of achieving sustainable regional development. Regional collaborative development has become the core strategy of the development of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH region. However, sub regions have different ecological changes and relationships. Here, we quantify and map ES, including water yield, sediment retention, carbon sequestration and grain productive capacity in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, using several biophysical models and explore the relationships of spatial correction, trade-offs and synergies among multiple ES in different spatial scales. Results across the four years show that the quality and variation tendency of ES from each region are spatially heterogeneous. The relationship between ES that are not significant in the entire region shows different correlations in individual ecological–functional zones. From the perspective of regional disparity, the effect of land use factor and correlative mechanisms among ES are analyzed. To observe the spatiotemporal variations and relationships of ES in individual regions, land use management policies are proposed on the basis of the results of the relationships among ES.

Exploring Ecosystems and Health by Shifting to a Regional Focus: Perspectives from the Oceania EcoHealth Chapter

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Jonathan Kingsley

2015-10-01

Full Text Available This article highlights contributions that can be made to the public health field by incorporating “ecosystem approaches to health” to tackle future environmental and health challenges at a regional level. This qualitative research reviews attitudes and understandings of the relationship between public health and the environment and the priorities, aspirations and challenges of a newly established group (the Oceania EcoHealth Chapter who are attempting to promote these principles. Ten semi-structured interviews with Oceania EcoHealth Chapter members highlighted the important role such groups can play in informing organisations working in the Oceania region to improve both public health and environmental outcomes simultaneously. Participants of this study emphasise the need to elevate Indigenous knowledge in Oceania and the role regional groups play in this regard. They also emphasis that regional advocacy and ecosystem approaches to health could bypass silos in knowledge and disciplinary divides, with groups like the Oceania EcoHealth Chapter acting as a mechanism for knowledge exchange, engagement, and action at a regional level with its ability to bridge the gap between environmental stewardship and public health.

Biogeochemical modelling vs. tree-ring data - comparison of forest ecosystem productivity estimates

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Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Maša; Barcza, Zoltán; Hidy, Dóra; Paladinić, Elvis; Kern, Anikó; Marjanović, Hrvoje

2017-04-01

Forest ecosystems are sensitive to environmental changes as well as human-induce disturbances, therefore process-based models with integrated management modules represent valuable tool for estimating and forecasting forest ecosystem productivity under changing conditions. Biogeochemical model Biome-BGC simulates carbon, nitrogen and water fluxes, and it is widely used for different terrestrial ecosystems. It was modified and parameterised by many researchers in the past to meet the specific local conditions. In this research, we used recently published improved version of the model Biome-BGCMuSo (BBGCMuSo), with multilayer soil module and integrated management module. The aim of our research is to validate modelling results of forest ecosystem productivity (NPP) from BBGCMuSo model with observed productivity estimated from an extensive dataset of tree-rings. The research was conducted in two distinct forest complexes of managed Pedunculate oak in SE Europe (Croatia), namely Pokupsko basin and Spačva basin. First, we parameterized BBGCMuSo model at a local level using eddy-covariance (EC) data from Jastrebarsko EC site. Parameterized model was used for the assessment of productivity on a larger scale. Results of NPP assessment with BBGCMuSo are compared with NPP estimated from tree ring data taken from trees on over 100 plots in both forest complexes. Keywords: Biome-BGCMuSo, forest productivity, model parameterization, NPP, Pedunculate oak

Measuring and Modeling the U.S. Regulatory Ecosystem

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Bommarito, Michael J., II; Katz, Daniel Martin

2017-09-01

Over the last 23 years, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has required over 34,000 companies to file over 165,000 annual reports. These reports, the so-called "Form 10-Ks," contain a characterization of a company's financial performance and its risks, including the regulatory environment in which a company operates. In this paper, we analyze over 4.5 million references to U.S. Federal Acts and Agencies contained within these reports to measure the regulatory ecosystem, in which companies are organisms inhabiting a regulatory environment. While individuals across the political, economic, and academic world frequently refer to trends in this regulatory ecosystem, far less attention has been paid to supporting such claims with large-scale, longitudinal data. In this paper, in addition to positing a model of regulatory ecosystems, we document an increase in the regulatory energy per filing, i.e., a warming "temperature." We also find that the diversity of the regulatory ecosystem has been increasing over the past two decades. These findings support the claim that regulatory activity and complexity are increasing, and this framework contributes an important step towards improving academic and policy discussions around legal complexity and regulation.

[The concentration and distribution of 137Cs in soils of forest and agricultural ecosystems of Tula Region].

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Lipatov, D N; Shcheglov, A I; Tsvetnova, O B

2007-01-01

The paper deals with a comparative study of 137Cs contamination in forest, old arable and cultivated soils of Tula Region. Initial interception of Chernobyl derived 137Cs is higher in forest ecosystems: oak-forest > birch-forest > pine-forest > agricultural ecosystems. Vertical migration of 137Cs in deeper layers of soils was intensive in agricultural ecosystems: cultivated soils > old arable soils > birch-forest soils > oak-forest soils > pine-forest soils. In study have been evaluated spatial variability of 137Cs in soil and asymmetrical distribution, that is a skew to the right. Spatial heterogeneity of 137Cs in agricultural soils is much lower than in forest soils. For cultivated soil are determined the rate of resuspension, which equal to 6.1 x 10(-4) day(-1). For forest soils are described the 137Cs concentration in litter of different ecosystems. The role of main accumulation and barrier of 137Cs retain higher layers of soils (horizon A1(A1E) in forest, horizon Ap in agricultural ecosystems) in long-term forecast after Chernobyl accident.

Ecological and Social Dynamics in Simple Models of Ecosystem Management

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Stephen R. Carpenter

1999-12-01

Full Text Available Simulation models were developed to explore and illustrate dynamics of socioecological systems. The ecosystem is a lake subject to phosphorus pollution. Phosphorus flows from agriculture to upland soils, to surface waters, where it cycles between water and sediments. The ecosystem is multistable, and moves among domains of attraction depending on the history of pollutant inputs. The alternative states yield different economic benefits. Agents form expectations about ecosystem dynamics, markets, and/or the actions of managers, and choose levels of pollutant inputs accordingly. Agents have heterogeneous beliefs and/or access to information. Their aggregate behavior determines the total rate of pollutant input. As the ecosystem changes, agents update their beliefs and expectations about the world they co-create, and modify their actions accordingly. For a wide range of scenarios, we observe irregular oscillations among ecosystem states and patterns of agent behavior. These oscillations resemble some features of the adaptive cycle of panarchy theory.

Regional assessment of North America: Urbanization trends, biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem services

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McPhearson, Timon; Auch, Roger F.; Alberti, Marina

2013-01-01

North America contains some of the most urbanized landscapes in the world. In the United States (U.S.) and Canada, approximately 80 % of the population is urban, with Mexico slightly less (Kaiser Family Foundation 2013). Population growth combined with economic growth has fueled recent urban land expansion in North America. Between 1970 and 2000, urban land area expanded at a rate of 3.31 % (Seto et al. 2011) creating unique challenges for conserving biodiversity and maintaining regional and local ecosystem services.

Linking ecosystem services with state-and-transition models to evaluate rangeland management decisions

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Lohani, S.; Heilman, P.; deSteiguer, J. E.; Guertin, D. P.; Wissler, C.; McClaran, M. P.

2014-12-01

Quantifying ecosystem services is a crucial topic for land management decision making. However, market prices are usually not able to capture all the ecosystem services and disservices. Ecosystem services from rangelands, that cover 70% of the world's land area, are even less well-understood since knowledge of rangelands is limited. This study generated a management framework for rangelands that uses remote sensing to generate state and transition models (STMs) for a large area and a linear programming (LP) model that uses ecosystem services to evaluate natural and/or management induced transitions as described in the STM. The LP optimization model determines the best management plan for a plot of semi-arid land in the Empire Ranch in southeastern Arizona. The model allocated land among management activities (do nothing, grazing, fire, and brush removal) to optimize net benefits and determined the impact of monetizing environmental services and disservices on net benefits, acreage allocation and production output. The ecosystem services under study were forage production (AUM/ac/yr), sediment (lbs/ac/yr), water runoff (inches/yr), soil loss (lbs/ac/yr) and recreation (thousands of number of visitors/ac/yr). The optimization model was run for three different scenarios - private rancher, public rancher including environmental services and excluding disservices, and public rancher including both services and disservices. The net benefit was the highest for the public rancher excluding the disservices. A result from the study is a constrained optimization model that incorporates ecosystem services to analyze investments on conservation and management activities. Rangeland managers can use this model to understand and explain, not prescribe, the tradeoffs of management investments.

Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model

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Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

2012-09-01

End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed

Surface Water Connectivity, Flow Pathways and Water Level Fluctuation in a Cold Region Deltaic Ecosystem

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Peters, D. L.; Niemann, O.; Skelly, R.; Monk, W. A.; Baird, D. J.

2017-12-01

The Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD) is a 6000 km2 deltaic floodplain ecosystem of international importance (Wood Buffalo National Park, Ramsar Convention, UNESCO World Heritage, and SWOT satellite water level calibration/validation site). The low-relief floodplain formed at the confluence of the Peace, Athabasca and Birch rivers with Lake Athabasca. More than 1000 wetland and lake basins have varying degrees of connectivity to the main flow system. Hydroperiod and water storage is influenced by ice-jam and open-water inundations and prevailing semi-arid climate that control water drawdown. Prior studies have identified pathways of river-to-wetland floodwater connection and historical water level fluctuation/trends as a key knowledge gaps, limiting our knowledge of deltaic ecosystem status and potential hydroecological responses to climate change and upstream water alterations to flow contributions. To address this knowledge gap, surface elevation mapping of the PAD has been conducted since 2012 using aerial remote sensing Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), plus thousands of ground based surface and bathymetric survey points tied to Global Positioning System (GPS) were obtained. The elevation information was used to develop a high resolution digital terrain model to simulate and investigate surface water connectivity. Importantly, the surveyed areas contain a set of wetland monitoring sites where ground-based surface water connectivity, water level/depth, water quality, and aquatic ecology (eg, vegetation, macroinvertebrate and muskrat) have been examined. The goal of this presentation is to present an assessment of: i) surface water fluctuation and connectivity for PAD wetland sites; ii) 40+ year inter-annual hydroperiod reconstruction for a perched basin using a combination of field measurements, remote sensing estimates, and historical documents; and iii) outline an approach to integrate newly available hydro-bio-geophysical information into a novel, multi

Towards a Better Quantification of Cropland Contribution to Carbon and Water Cycling Using the ORCHIDEE-STICS Ecosystem Model Across Europe

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Smith, P. C.; Viovy, N.; de Noblet-Ducoudre, N.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Gervois, S.; Seguin, B.; Bondeau, A.

2006-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere model ORCHIDEE (itself part of the IPSL Earth System Model) was coupled to a generic crop model, STICS, for quantitative studies of the past and future impact of agriculture on biogeochemical cycles as well as biophysical surface properties at regional scale. This modelling effort resulted in improved simulated crop productivity and fluxes seasonality as compared with site-level Eddy- covariance network data and other field measurements. ORCHIDEE-STICS, driven by gridded climate reconstructions, soil and vegetation forcings was run for the northern hemisphere temperate crops over the last 35 years. Seasonal, interannual, and spatial performance of the model is evaluated against satellite observations, national and sub-national statistical yield records and inverse atmospheric estimates across Europe. We analyse the spatial pattern and temporal development of the extreme 1976 and 2003 years anomalies, compare the two European drought events with each other and quantify their differential impact on carbon sequestration, energy partitioning and water availability in different agricultural ecosystems. We discuss the modelled and observed 2003 ecosystem Net Primary Productivity drop and anomalous carbon source. Simulations over the past century in Europe reproduce the tripling of wheat and corn yields and confirm the driving effect of management on agro-ecosystems productivity vs. climate change and atmospheric CO2 alone.

Ecosystem Health Assessment of Mining Cities Based on Landscape Pattern

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, W.; Liu, Y.; Lin, M.; Fang, F.; Xiao, R.

2017-09-01

Ecosystem health assessment (EHA) is one of the most important aspects in ecosystem management. Nowadays, ecological environment of mining cities is facing various problems. In this study, through ecosystem health theory and remote sensing images in 2005, 2009 and 2013, landscape pattern analysis and Vigor-Organization-Resilience (VOR) model were applied to set up an evaluation index system of ecosystem health of mining city to assess the healthy level of ecosystem in Panji District Huainan city. Results showed a temporal stable but high spatial heterogeneity landscape pattern during 2005-2013. According to the regional ecosystem health index, it experienced a rapid decline after a slight increase, and finally it maintained at an ordinary level. Among these areas, a significant distinction was presented in different towns. It indicates that the ecosystem health of Tianjijiedao town, the regional administrative centre, descended rapidly during the study period, and turned into the worst level in the study area. While the Hetuan Town, located in the northwestern suburb area of Panji District, stayed on a relatively better level than other towns. The impacts of coal mining collapse area, land reclamation on the landscape pattern and ecosystem health status of mining cities were also discussed. As a result of underground coal mining, land subsidence has become an inevitable problem in the study area. In addition, the coal mining subsidence area has brought about the destruction of the farmland, construction land and water bodies, which causing the change of the regional landscape pattern and making the evaluation of ecosystem health in mining area more difficult. Therefore, this study provided an ecosystem health approach for relevant departments to make scientific decisions.

Implications of Uncertainty in Fossil Fuel Emissions for Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

King, A. W.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Mao, J.; Andres, R. J.

2017-12-01

Given observations of the increase in atmospheric CO2, estimates of anthropogenic emissions and models of oceanic CO2 uptake, one can estimate net global CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems as the residual of the balanced global carbon budget. Estimates from the Global Carbon Project 2016 show that terrestrial ecosystems are a growing sink for atmospheric CO2 (averaging 2.12 Gt C y-1 for the period 1959-2015 with a growth rate of 0.03 Gt C y-1 per year) but with considerable year-to-year variability (standard deviation of 1.07 Gt C y-1). Within the uncertainty of the observations, emissions estimates and ocean modeling, this residual calculation is a robust estimate of a global terrestrial sink for CO2. A task of terrestrial ecosystem science is to explain the trend and variability in this estimate. However, "within the uncertainty" is an important caveat. The uncertainty (2σ; 95% confidence interval) in fossil fuel emissions is 8.4% (±0.8 Gt C in 2015). Combined with uncertainty in other carbon budget components, the 2σ uncertainty surrounding the global net terrestrial ecosystem CO2 exchange is ±1.6 Gt C y-1. Ignoring the uncertainty, the estimate of a general terrestrial sink includes 2 years (1987 and 1998) in which terrestrial ecosystems are a small source of CO2 to the atmosphere. However, with 2σ uncertainty, terrestrial ecosystems may have been a source in as many as 18 years. We examine how well global terrestrial biosphere models simulate the trend and interannual variability of the global-budget estimate of the terrestrial sink within the context of this uncertainty (e.g., which models fall outside the 2σ uncertainty and in what years). Models are generally capable of reproducing the trend in net terrestrial exchange, but are less able to capture interannual variability and often fall outside the 2σ uncertainty. The trend in the residual carbon budget estimate is primarily associated with the increase in atmospheric CO2

Study on the ecosystem construction of using ecopath model in inland waterway

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Junjie; Bai, Jing; Zhang, Lu; Wang, Ning; Shou, Youping

2018-04-01

In this paper, Ecopath with Ecosim 5.1 software is used to simulate the constructed water ecosystem of inland waterway. According to the characteristics of feeding relationship, the ecopath model of water ecosystem is divided into seven functional groups: phytoplankton, hydrophyte, zooplankton, herbivorous, omnivorous, polychaetes and detritus. By analyzing the important ecological parameters of the ecosystem, such as biomass, biomass / biomass, consumption / biomass, trophic level and ecological nutrient conversion efficiency, the software integrates the energy flow process of the ecosystem, the ratio of the total net primary production and the sum of all respiratory flows is 1.314, it’s indicating that the ecosystem is equilibrium. The research method of this paper can be widely used to evaluate the stability of the ecosystem of the domestic river.

A spatial implementation of the BIOME-BGC to model grassland GPP production and water budgets in the Ecuadorian Andean Region

Science.gov (United States)

Minaya, Veronica; Corzo, Gerald; van der Kwast, Johannes; Mynett, Arthur

2016-04-01

Many terrestrial biogeochemistry process models have been applied around the world at different scales and for a large range of ecosystems. Grasslands, and in particular the ones located in the Andean Region are essential ecosystems that sustain important ecological processes; however, just a few efforts have been made to estimate the gross primary production (GPP) and the hydrological budgets for this specific ecosystem along an altitudinal gradient. A previous study, which is one of the few available in the region, considered the heterogeneity of the main properties of the páramo vegetation and showed significant differences in plant functional types, site/soil parameters and daily meteorology. This study extends the work above mentioned and uses spatio-temporal analysis of the BIOME-BGC model results. This was done to simulate the GPP and the water fluxes in space and time, by applying altitudinal analysis. The catchment located at the southwestern slope of the Antisana volcano in Ecuador was selected as a representative area of the Andean páramos and its hydrological importance as one of the main sources of a water supply reservoir in the region. An accurate estimation of temporal changes in GPP in the region is important for carbon budget assessments, evaluation of the impact of climate change and biomass productivity. This complex and yet interesting problem was integrated by the ecosystem process model BIOME-BGC, the results were evaluated and associated to the land cover map where the growth forms of vegetation were identified. The responses of GPP and the water fluxes were not only dependent on the environmental drivers but also on the ecophysiology and the site specific parameters. The model estimated that the GPP at lower elevations doubles the amount estimated at higher elevations, which might have a large implication during extrapolations at larger spatio-temporal scales. The outcomes of the stand hydrological processes demonstrated a wrong

Characterizing isotopic variability of primary production and consumers in Great Plains ecosystems during protracted regional drought

Science.gov (United States)

Haveles, A. W.; Fox-Dobbs, K.; Talmadge, K. A.; Fetrow, A.; Fox, D. L.

2012-12-01

Over the last few years (2010-2012), the Great Plains of the central USA experienced protracted drought conditions, including historically severe drought during Summer, 2011. Drought severity in the region generally decreases with increasing latitude, but episodic drought is a fundamental trait of grassland ecosystems. Documenting above ground energy and nutrient flow with current drought is critical to understanding responses of grassland ecosystems in the region to predicted increased episodicity of rainfall and recurrence of drought due to anthropogenic climate change. Characterization of biogeochemical variability of modern ecosystems at the microhabitat, local landscape, and regional scales is also necessary to interpret biogeochemical records of ancient grasslands based on paleosols and fossil mammals. Here, we characterize three grassland ecosystems that span the drought gradient in the Great Plains (sites in the Texas panhandle, southwest Kansas, and northwest Nebraska). We measured δ13C and δ15N values of plants and consumers to characterize the biogeochemical variability within each ecosystem. Vegetation at each site is a mix of trees, shrubs, herbs, and cool- and warm-growing season grasses (C3 and C4, respectively). Thus, consumers have access to isotopically distinct sources of forage that vary in abundance with microhabitat (e.g., open grassland, shrub thicket, riparian woodland). Observations indicate herbivorous arthropod (grasshoppers and crickets) abundance follows drought severity, with high abundance of many species in Texas, and low abundance of few species in Nebraska. Small mammal (rodents) abundance follows the inverse pattern with 0.8%, 3.2% and 17.2% capture success in Texas, Kansas and Nebraska, respectively. The inverse abundance patterns of consumer groups may result from greater sensitivity of small mammal consumers with high metabolic needs to lower local net primary productivity and forage quality under drought conditions. As a

Quantification of terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the conterminous United States combining a process-based biogeochemical model and MODIS and AmeriFlux data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Chen

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Satellite remote sensing provides continuous temporal and spatial information of terrestrial ecosystems. Using these remote sensing data and eddy flux measurements and biogeochemical models, such as the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM, should provide a more adequate quantification of carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. Here we use Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI, Land Surface Water Index (LSWI and carbon flux data of AmeriFlux to conduct such a study. We first modify the gross primary production (GPP modeling in TEM by incorporating EVI and LSWI to account for the effects of the changes of canopy photosynthetic capacity, phenology and water stress. Second, we parameterize and verify the new version of TEM with eddy flux data. We then apply the model to the conterminous United States over the period 2000–2005 at a 0.05° × 0.05° spatial resolution. We find that the new version of TEM made improvement over the previous version and generally captured the expected temporal and spatial patterns of regional carbon dynamics. We estimate that regional GPP is between 7.02 and 7.78 Pg C yr⁻¹ and net primary production (NPP ranges from 3.81 to 4.38 Pg C yr⁻¹ and net ecosystem production (NEP varies within 0.08–0.73 Pg C yr⁻¹ over the period 2000–2005 for the conterminous United States. The uncertainty due to parameterization is 0.34, 0.65 and 0.18 Pg C yr⁻¹ for the regional estimates of GPP, NPP and NEP, respectively. The effects of extreme climate and disturbances such as severe drought in 2002 and destructive Hurricane Katrina in 2005 were captured by the model. Our study provides a new independent and more adequate measure of carbon fluxes for the conterminous United States, which will benefit studies of carbon-climate feedback and facilitate policy-making of carbon management and climate.

Damped trophic cascades driven by fishing in model marine ecosystems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ken Haste; Pedersen, Martin

2010-01-01

The largest perturbation on upper trophic levels of many marine ecosystems stems from fishing. The reaction of the ecosystem goes beyond the trophic levels directly targeted by the fishery. This reaction has been described either as a change in slope of the overall size spectrum or as a trophic...... cascade triggered by the removal of top predators. Here we use a novel size- and trait-based model to explore how marine ecosystems might react to perturbations from different types of fishing pressure. The model explicitly resolves the whole life history of fish, from larvae to adults. The results show...... that fishing does not change the overall slope of the size spectrum, but depletes the largest individuals and induces trophic cascades. A trophic cascade can propagate both up and down in trophic levels driven by a combination of changes in predation mortality and food limitation. The cascade is damped...

Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica

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Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Constable, Andrew; Wotherspoon, Simon; Raymond, Ben

2013-01-01

Antarctic marine ecosystems have undergone significant changes as a result of human activities in the past and are now responding in varied and often complicated ways to climate change impacts. Recent years have seen the emergence of large-scale mechanistic explanations–or “paradigms of change”–that attempt to synthesize our understanding of past and current changes. In many cases, these paradigms are based on observations that are spatially and temporally patchy. The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), one of Earth’s most rapidly changing regions, has been an area of particular research focus. A recently proposed mechanistic explanation for observed changes in the WAP region relates changes in penguin populations to variability in krill biomass and regional warming. While this scheme is attractive for its simplicity and chronology, it may not account for complex spatio-temporal processes that drive ecosystem dynamics in the region. It might also be difficult to apply to other Antarctic regions that are experiencing some, though not all, of the changes documented for the WAP. We use qualitative network models of differing levels of complexity to test paradigms of change for the WAP ecosystem. Importantly, our approach captures the emergent effects of feedback processes in complex ecological networks and provides a means to identify and incorporate uncertain linkages between network elements. Our findings highlight key areas of uncertainty in the drivers of documented trends, and suggest that a greater level of model complexity is needed in devising explanations for ecosystem change in the Southern Ocean. We suggest that our network approach to evaluating a recent and widely cited paradigm of change for the Antarctic region could be broadly applied in hypothesis testing for other regions and research fields. PMID:23405116

Dynamical implications of bi-directional resource exchange within a meta-ecosystem.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, Marisabel Rodriguez; Kopp, Darin; Allen, Daniel; Kang, Yun

2018-05-05

The exchange of resources across ecosystem boundaries can have large impacts on ecosystem structures and functions at local and regional scales. In this article, we develop a simple model to investigate dynamical implications of bi-directional resource exchanges between two local ecosystems in a meta-ecosystem framework. In our model, we assume that (1) Each local ecosystem acts as both a resource donor and recipient, such that one ecosystem donating resources to another results in a cost to the donating system and a benefit to the recipient; and (2) The costs and benefits of the bi-directional resource exchange between two ecosystems are correlated in a nonlinear fashion. Our model could apply to the resource interactions between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems that are supported by the literature. Our theoretical results show that bi-directional resource exchange between two ecosystems can indeed generate complicated dynamical outcomes, including the coupled ecosystems having amensalistic, antagonistic, competitive, or mutualistic interactions, with multiple alternative stable states depending on the relative costs and benefits. In addition, if the relative cost for resource exchange for an ecosystem is decreased or the relative benefit for resource exchange for an ecosystem is increased, the production of that ecosystem would increase; however, depending on the local environment, the production of the other ecosystem may increase or decrease. We expect that our work, by evaluating the potential outcomes of resource exchange theoretically, can facilitate empirical evaluations and advance the understanding of spatial ecosystem ecology where resource exchanges occur in varied ecosystems through a complicated network. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Inferential ecosystem models, from network data to prediction

Science.gov (United States)

James S. Clark; Pankaj Agarwal; David M. Bell; Paul G. Flikkema; Alan Gelfand; Xuanlong Nguyen; Eric Ward; Jun Yang

2011-01-01

Recent developments suggest that predictive modeling could begin to play a larger role not only for data analysis, but also for data collection. We address the example of efficient wireless sensor networks, where inferential ecosystem models can be used to weigh the value of an observation against the cost of data collection. Transmission costs make observations ‘‘...

Development of an integrated generic model for multi-scale assessment of the impacts of agro-ecosystems on major ecosystem services in West Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Belem, Mahamadou; Saqalli, Mehdi

2017-11-01

This paper presents an integrated model assessing the impacts of climate change, agro-ecosystem and demographic transition patterns on major ecosystem services in West-Africa along a partial overview of economic aspects (poverty reduction, food self-sufficiency and income generation). The model is based on an agent-based model associated with a soil model and multi-scale spatial model. The resulting Model for West-Africa Agro-Ecosystem Integrated Assessment (MOWASIA) is ecologically generic, meaning it is designed for all sudano-sahelian environments but may then be used as an experimentation facility for testing different scenarios combining ecological and socioeconomic dimensions. A case study in Burkina Faso is examined to assess the environmental and economic performances of semi-continuous and continuous farming systems. Results show that the semi-continuous system using organic fertilizer and fallowing practices contribute better to environment preservation and food security than the more economically performant continuous system. In addition, this study showed that farmers heterogeneity could play an important role in agricultural policies planning and assessment. In addition, the results showed that MOWASIA is an effective tool for designing, analysing the impacts of agro-ecosystems. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Ground-based grasslands data to support remote sensing and ecosystem modeling of terrestrial primary production

Science.gov (United States)

Olson, R. J.; Scurlock, J. M. O.; Turner, R. S.; Jennings, S. V.

1995-01-01

Estimating terrestrial net primary production (NPP) using remote-sensing tools and ecosystem models requires adequate ground-based measurements for calibration, parameterization, and validation. These data needs were strongly endorsed at a recent meeting of ecosystem modelers organized by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program's (IGBP's) Data and Information System (DIS) and its Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling (GAIM) Task Force. To meet these needs, a multinational, multiagency project is being coordinated by the IGBP DIS to compile existing NPP data from field sites and to regionalize NPP point estimates to various-sized grid cells. Progress at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) on compiling NPP data for grasslands as part of the IGBP DIS data initiative is described. Site data and associated documentation from diverse field studies are being acquired for selected grasslands and are being reviewed for completeness, consistency, and adequacy of documentation, including a description of sampling methods. Data are being compiled in a database with spatial, temporal, and thematic characteristics relevant to remote sensing and global modeling. NPP data are available from the ORNL Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) for biogeochemical dynamics. The ORNL DAAC is part of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System, of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Ground-based grasslands data to support remote sensing and ecosystem modeling of terrestrial primary production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olson, R.J.; Turner, R.S. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Scurlock, J.M.O. [King`s College London, (England); Jennings, S.V. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-12-31

Estimating terrestrial net primary production (NPP) using remote- sensing tools and ecosystem models requires adequate ground-based measurements for calibration, parameterization, and validation. These data needs were strongly endorsed at a recent meeting of ecosystem modelers organized by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme`s (IGBP`s) Data and Information System (DIS) and its Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling (GAIM) Task Force. To meet these needs, a multinational, multiagency project is being coordinated by the IGBP DIS to compile existing NPP data from field sites and to regionalize NPP point estimates to various-sized grid cells. Progress at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) on compiling NPP data for grasslands as part of the IGBP DIS data initiative is described. Site data and associated documentation from diverse field studies are being acquired for selected grasslands and are being reviewed for completeness, consistency, and adequacy of documentation, including a description of sampling methods. Data are being compiled in a database with spatial, temporal, and thematic characteristics relevant to remote sensing and global modeling. NPP data are available from the ORNL Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) for biogeochemical dynamics. The ORNL DAAC is part of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System, of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Models for predicting fuel consumption in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Clinton S. Wright

2013-01-01

Fuel consumption predictions are necessary to accurately estimate or model fire effects, including pollutant emissions during wildland fires. Fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires were used to develop empirical models for predicting fuel consumption in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate Nutt.) ecosystems....

Modeling hurricane effects on mangrove ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, Thomas W.

1997-01-01

Mangrove ecosystems are at their most northern limit along the coastline of Florida and in isolated areas of the gulf coast in Louisiana and Texas. Mangroves are marine-based forests that have adapted to colonize and persist in salty intertidal waters. Three species of mangrove trees are common to the United States, black mangrove (Avicennia germinans), white mangrove (Laguncularia racemosa), and red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle). Mangroves are highly productive ecosystems and provide valuable habitat for fisheries and shorebirds. They are susceptible to lightning and hurricane disturbance, both of which occur frequently in south Florida. Climate change studies predict that, while these storms may not become more frequent, they may become more intense with warming sea temperatures. Sea-level rise alone has the potential for increasing the severity of storm surge, particularly in areas where coastal habitats and barrier shorelines are rapidly deteriorating. Given this possibility, U.S. Geological Survey researchers modeled the impact of hurricanes on south Florida mangrove communities.

Understanding variation in ecosystem pulse responses to wetting: Benefits of data-model coupling

Science.gov (United States)

Jenerette, D.

2011-12-01

Metabolic pulses of activity are a common ecological response to intermittently available resources and in water-limited ecosystems these pulses often occur in response to wetting. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) in response to episodic wetting events is hypothesized to have a complex trajectory reflecting the distinct responses, or "pulses", of respiration and photosynthesis. To help direct research activities a physiological-based model of whole ecosystem metabolic activity up- and down-regulation was developed to investigate ecosystem energy balance and gas exchange pulse responses following precipitation events. This model was to investigate pulse dynamics from a local network of sites in southern Arizona, a global network of eddy-covariance ecosystem monitoring sites, laboratory incubation studies, and field manipulations. Pulse responses were found to be ubiquitous across ecosystem types. These pulses had a highly variable influence on NEE following wetting, ranging from large net sinks to sources of CO2 to the atmosphere. Much of the variability in pulse responses of NEE could be described through a coupled up- and down-regulation pulse response model. Respiration pulses were hypothesized to occur through a reduction in whole ecosystem activation energy; this model was both useful and corroborated through laboratory incubation studies of soil respiration. Using the Fluxnet eddy-covariance measurement database event specific responses were combined with the pulse model into an event specific twenty-five day net flux calculation. Across all events observed a general net accumulation of CO2 following a precipitation event, with the largest net uptake within deciduous broadleaf forests and smallest within grasslands. NEE pulses favored greater uptake when pre-event ecosystem respiration rates and total precipitation were higher. While the latter was expected, the former adds to previous theory by suggesting a larger net uptake of CO2 when pre-event metabolic

Assessing climate change effects on mountain ecosystems using integrated models: A case study

Science.gov (United States)

Fagre, Daniel B.; Running, Steven W.; Keane, Robert E.; Peterson, David L.

2005-01-01

Mountain systems are characterized by strong environmental gradients, rugged topography and extreme spatial heterogeneity in ecosystem structure and composition. Consequently, most mountainous areas have relatively high rates of endemism and biodiversity, and function as species refugia in many areas of the world. Mountains have long been recognized as critical entities in regional climatic and hydrological dynamics but their importance as terrestrial carbon stores has only been recently underscored (Schimel et al. 2002; this volume). Mountain ecosystems, therefore, are globally important as well as unusually complex. These ecosystems challenge our ability to understand their dynamics and predict their response to climatic variability and global-scale environmental change.

A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

Science.gov (United States)

Tittensor, Derek P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Cheung, William; Barange, Manuel; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bopp, Laurent; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Büchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Huber, Veronika; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda; Lehodey, Patrick; Link, Jason S.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Silva, Tiago; Stock, Charles A.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Underwood, Philip J.; Volkholz, Jan; Watson, James R.; Walker, Nicola D.

2018-04-01

Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the

A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. P. Tittensor

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0, part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP, which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size, and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s and future (to 2100 time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6 in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems

Qualitative models to predict impacts of human interventions in a wetland ecosystem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Loiselle

2002-07-01

Full Text Available The large shallow wetlands that dominate much of the South American continent are rich in biodiversity and complexity. Many of these undamaged ecosystems are presently being examined for their potential economic utility, putting pressure on local authorities and the conservation community to find ways of correctly utilising the available natural resources without compromising the ecosystem functioning and overall integrity. Contrary to many northern hemisphere ecosystems, there have been little long term ecological studies of these systems, leading to a lack of quantitative data on which to construct ecological or resource use models. As a result, decision makers, even well meaning ones, have difficulty in determining if particular economic activities can potentially cause significant damage to the ecosystem and how one should go about monitoring the impacts of such activities. While the direct impact of many activities is often known, the secondary indirect impacts are usually less clear and can depend on local ecological conditions.

The use of qualitative models is a helpful tool to highlight potential feedback mechanisms and secondary effects of management action on ecosystem integrity. The harvesting of a single, apparently abundant, species can have indirect secondary effects on key trophic and abiotic compartments. In this paper, loop model analysis is used to qualitatively examine secondary effects of potential economic activities in a large wetland area in northeast Argentina, the Esteros del Ibera. Based on interaction with local actors together with observed ecological information, loop models were constructed to reflect relationships between biotic and abiotic compartments. A series of analyses were made to study the effect of different economic scenarios on key ecosystem compartments. Important impacts on key biotic compartments (phytoplankton, zooplankton, ichthyofauna, aquatic macrophytes and on the abiotic environment

Mainstreaming Natural Capital into Decisions: Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services

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Arnas Palaima

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to review current paradigms in ecosystem services valuation, existing gaps and current trends in addressing those gaps. Natural capital, often defined as the stock of natural ecosystems that yields a flow of valuable ecosystem goods or services into the future, is often undervalued or not valued at all by governments, business and society, which leads to environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. One of the major reasons of such undervaluation is the lack of practical, realistic quantitative methods/models that would establish ecosystem services value and its change due to human development. A promising, recently developed ecosystem services modeling system is InVEST: “Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs.” InVEST is a set of Geographic Information Systems (GIS models that predict the provision and value of ecosystem services and habitat provision given land use/land cover maps and related biophysical, economic, and institutional data for the study region. InVEST, if further developed and applied in a systematic way, could facilitate mainstreaming the natural capital into decisions at all levels and provide a strong foundation for local natural resources managers to improve and optimize their environmental management strategies.

Global Mapping of Provisioning Ecosystem Services

Science.gov (United States)

Bingham, Lisa; Straatsma, Menno; Karssenberg, Derek

2016-04-01

Attributing monetary value to ecosystem services for decision-making has become more relevant as a basis for decision-making. There are a number of problematic aspects of the calculations, including consistency of economy represented (e.g., purchasing price, production price) and determining which ecosystem subservices to include in a valuation. While several authors have proposed methods for calculating ecosystem services and calculations are presented for global and regional studies, the calculations are mostly broken down into biomes and regions without showing spatially explicit results. The key to decision-making for governments is to be able to make spatial-based decisions because a large spatial variation may exist within a biome or region. Our objective was to compute the spatial distribution of global ecosystem services based on 89 subservices. Initially, only the provisioning ecosystem service category is presented. The provisioning ecosystem service category was calculated using 6 ecosystem services (food, water, raw materials, genetic resources, medical resources, and ornaments) divided into 41 subservices. Global data sets were obtained from a variety of governmental and research agencies for the year 2005 because this is the most data complete and recent year available. All data originated either in tabular or grid formats and were disaggregated to 10 km cell length grids. A lookup table with production values by subservice by country were disaggregated over the economic zone (either marine, land, or combination) based on the spatial existence of the subservice (e.g. forest cover, crop land, non-arable land). Values express the production price in international dollars per hectare. The ecosystem services and the ecosystem service category(ies) maps may be used to show spatial variation of a service within and between countries as well as to specifically show the values within specific regions (e.g. countries, continents), biomes (e.g. coastal, forest

Trophic models: What do we learn about Celtic Sea and Bay of Biscay ecosystems?

Science.gov (United States)

Moullec, Fabien; Gascuel, Didier; Bentorcha, Karim; Guénette, Sylvie; Robert, Marianne

2017-08-01

Trophic models are key tools to go beyond the single-species approaches used in stock assessments to adopt a more holistic view and implement the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM). This study aims to: (i) analyse the trophic functioning of the Celtic Sea and the Bay of Biscay, (ii) investigate ecosystem changes over the 1980-2013 period and, (iii) explore the response to management measures at the food web scale. Ecopath models were built for each ecosystem for years 1980 and 2013, and Ecosim models were fitted to time series data of biomass and catches. EcoTroph diagnosis showed that in both ecosystems, fishing pressure focuses on high trophic levels (TLs) and, to a lesser extent, on intermediate TLs. However, the interplay between local environmental conditions, species composition and ecosystem functioning could explain the different responses to fisheries management observed between these two contiguous ecosystems. Indeed, over the study period, the ecosystem's exploitation status has improved in the Bay of Biscay but not in the Celtic Sea. This improvement does not seem to be sufficient to achieve the objectives of an EAFM, as high trophic levels were still overexploited in 2013 and simulations conducted with Ecosim in the Bay of Biscay indicate that at current fishing effort the biomass will not be rebuilt by 2030. The ecosystem's response to a reduction in fishing mortality depends on which trophic levels receive protection. Reducing fishing mortality on pelagic fish, instead of on demersal fish, appears more efficient at maximising catch and total biomass and at conserving both top-predator and intermediate TLs. Such advice-oriented trophic models should be used on a regular basis to monitor the health status of marine food webs and analyse the trade-offs between multiple objectives in an ecosystem-based fisheries management context.

Water Use Efficiency of China's Terrestrial Ecosystems and Responses to Drought

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y.; Xiao, J.; Ju, W.; Zhou, Y.; Wang, S.; Wu, X.

2015-12-01

Yibo Liu1, 2, Jingfeng Xiao2, Weimin Ju3, Yanlian Zhou4, Shaoqiang Wang5, Xiaocui Wu31 Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China, 2Earth Systems Research Center, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA, 3 International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China, 4 School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China, 5 Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China Water use efficiency (WUE) measures the trade-off between carbon gain and water loss of terrestrial ecosystems, and better understanding its dynamics and controlling factors is essential for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. We assessed the magnitude, spatial patterns, and trends of WUE of China's terrestrial ecosystems and its responses to drought using a process-based ecosystem model. During the period from 2000 to 2011, the national average annual WUE (net primary productivity (NPP)/evapotranspiration (ET)) of China was 0.79 g C kg-1 H2O. Annual WUE decreased in the southern regions because of the decrease in NPP and increase in ET and increased in most northern regions mainly because of the increase in NPP. Droughts usually increased annual WUE in Northeast China and central Inner Mongolia but decreased annual WUE in central China. "Turning-points" were observed for southern China where moderate and extreme drought reduced annual WUE and severe drought slightly increased annual WUE. The cumulative lagged effect of drought on monthly WUE varied by region. Our findings have implications for ecosystem management and climate policy making. WUE is expected to continue to change under future climate

Global mapping of ecosystem services and conservation priorities

Science.gov (United States)

Naidoo, R.; Balmford, A.; Costanza, R.; Fisher, B.; Green, R. E.; Lehner, B.; Malcolm, T. R.; Ricketts, T. H.

2008-01-01

Global efforts to conserve biodiversity have the potential to deliver economic benefits to people (i.e., “ecosystem services”). However, regions for which conservation benefits both biodiversity and ecosystem services cannot be identified unless ecosystem services can be quantified and valued and their areas of production mapped. Here we review the theory, data, and analyses needed to produce such maps and find that data availability allows us to quantify imperfect global proxies for only four ecosystem services. Using this incomplete set as an illustration, we compare ecosystem service maps with the global distributions of conventional targets for biodiversity conservation. Our preliminary results show that regions selected to maximize biodiversity provide no more ecosystem services than regions chosen randomly. Furthermore, spatial concordance among different services, and between ecosystem services and established conservation priorities, varies widely. Despite this lack of general concordance, “win–win” areas—regions important for both ecosystem services and biodiversity—can be usefully identified, both among ecoregions and at finer scales within them. An ambitious interdisciplinary research effort is needed to move beyond these preliminary and illustrative analyses to fully assess synergies and trade-offs in conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services. PMID:18621701

Ecosystem model of the entire Beaufort Sea marine ecosystem: a tool for assessing food-web structure and ecosystem changes from 1970 to 2014

Science.gov (United States)

Suprenand, P. M.; Hoover, C.

2016-02-01

The Beaufort Sea coastal-marine ecosystem is approximately a 476,000 km2 area in the Arctic Ocean, which extends from -112.5 to -158° longitude to 67.5 to 75° latitude. Within this Arctic Ocean area the United States (Alaskan) indigenous communities of Barrow, Kaktovik, and Nuiqsut, and the Canadian (Northwest Territories) indigenous communities of Aklavik, Inuvik, Tuktoyaktuk, Paulatuk, Ulukhaktok, and Sachs Harbour, subsist by harvesting marine mammals, fish, and invertebrates from the Beaufort Sea to provide the majority of their community foods annually. The ecosystem in which the indigenous communities harvest is considered a polar habitat that includes many specialized species, such as polar bears that rely on sea-ice for foraging activities and denning, or ice algae that are attached to the cryosphere. However, the polar habitat has been experiencing a diminishing sea-ice extent, age, and seasonal duration, with concomitant increases in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), since the 1970s. Changes in sea-ice and SST have consequences to the Beaufort Sea coastal-marine ecosystem, which includes animal habitat losses, alterations to trophodynamics, and impacts to subsistence community harvesting. The present study was aimed at capturing trophodynamic changes in the Beaufort Sea coastal-marine ecosystem from 1970 to 2014 using a fitted spatial-temporal model (Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace) that utilizes forcing and mediation functions to describe animal/trophodynamic relationships with sea-ice and sea surface temperature, as well as individual community harvesting efforts. Model outputs reveals similar trends in animals population changes (e.g., increasing bowhead whale stock), changes in apex predator diets (e.g., polar bears eating less ringed seal), and changes in animal distributions (e.g., polar bears remaining closer to land over time). The Beaufort Sea model is a dynamic tool for Arctic Ocean natural resource management in the years to come.

Effect of degradation intensity on grassland ecosystem services in the alpine region of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China.

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Lu Wen

Full Text Available The deterioration of alpine grassland has great impact on ecosystem services in the alpine region of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. However, the effect of grassland degradation on ecosystem services and the consequence of grassland deterioration on economic loss still remains a mystery. So, in this study, we assessed four types of ecosystem services following the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment classification, along a degradation gradient. Five sites of alpine grassland at different levels of degradation were investigated in Guoluo Prefecture of Qinghai Province, China. The species composition, aboveground biomass, soil total organic carbon (TOC, and soil total nitrogen (TN were tested to evaluate major ecological services of the alpine grassland. We estimated the value of primary production, carbon storage, nitrogen recycling, and plant diversity. The results show the ecosystem services of alpine grassland varied along the degradation gradient. The ecosystem services of degraded grassland (moderate, heavy and severe were all significantly lower than non-degraded grassland. Interestingly, the lightly degraded grassland provided more economic benefit from carbon maintenance and nutrient sequestration compared to non-degraded. Due to the destruction of the alpine grassland, the economic loss associated with decrease of biomass in 2008 was $198/ha. Until 2008, the economic loss caused by carbon emissions and nitrogen loss on severely degraded grassland was up to $8 033/ha and $13 315/ha, respectively. Urgent actions are required to maintain or promote the ecosystem services of alpine grassland in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Effect of degradation intensity on grassland ecosystem services in the alpine region of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Lu; Dong, Shikui; Li, Yuanyuan; Li, Xiaoyan; Shi, Jianjun; Wang, Yanlong; Liu, Demei; Ma, Yushou

2013-01-01

The deterioration of alpine grassland has great impact on ecosystem services in the alpine region of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. However, the effect of grassland degradation on ecosystem services and the consequence of grassland deterioration on economic loss still remains a mystery. So, in this study, we assessed four types of ecosystem services following the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment classification, along a degradation gradient. Five sites of alpine grassland at different levels of degradation were investigated in Guoluo Prefecture of Qinghai Province, China. The species composition, aboveground biomass, soil total organic carbon (TOC), and soil total nitrogen (TN) were tested to evaluate major ecological services of the alpine grassland. We estimated the value of primary production, carbon storage, nitrogen recycling, and plant diversity. The results show the ecosystem services of alpine grassland varied along the degradation gradient. The ecosystem services of degraded grassland (moderate, heavy and severe) were all significantly lower than non-degraded grassland. Interestingly, the lightly degraded grassland provided more economic benefit from carbon maintenance and nutrient sequestration compared to non-degraded. Due to the destruction of the alpine grassland, the economic loss associated with decrease of biomass in 2008 was $198/ha. Until 2008, the economic loss caused by carbon emissions and nitrogen loss on severely degraded grassland was up to $8 033/ha and $13 315/ha, respectively. Urgent actions are required to maintain or promote the ecosystem services of alpine grassland in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and point source released radionuclides to an aquatic ecosystem

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumblad, Linda [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Systems Ecology; Kautsky, Ulrik [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

2004-09-01

In this report three ecosystem models are described in terms of structure, initial data, and results. All models are dynamic, mass-balanced and describe the transport and fate of elements in an open aquatic ecosystem. The models are based on ecologically sound principles, provide model results with high resolution and transparency, and are constrained by the nutrient dynamics of the ecosystem itself. The processes driving the transport in all the models are both the biological processes such as primary production, consumption, respiration and excretion, and abiotic e.g. water exchange and air-sea exchange. The first model, the CNP-model, describes the distribution and fluxes of carbon and nutrients for the coastal ecosystem off Forsmark. The second model, the C-14 model, is an extension of the CNP-model and describes the transport and distribution of hypothetically released C-14 from the underground repository SFR-1 to the ecosystem above. The third model, the RN-model, is a generic radionuclide flow model that models the transport and distribution of radionuclides other than C-14 hypothetically discharged to the ecosystem. The model also analyses the importance of some radionuclide specific mechanisms for the radionuclide flow. The generic radionuclide model is also based on the CNP-model, but has radionuclide specific mechanisms connected to each compartment.

Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and point source released radionuclides to an aquatic ecosystem