WorldWideScience

Sample records for regime change 1800-1986

  1. Regime change?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pilat, Joseph F.; Budlong-Sylvester, K.W.

    2004-01-01

    Following the 1998 nuclear tests in South Asia and later reinforced by revelations about North Korean and Iraqi nuclear activities, there has been growing concern about increasing proliferation dangers. At the same time, the prospects of radiological/nuclear terrorism are seen to be rising - since 9/11, concern over a proliferation/terrorism nexus has never been higher. In the face of this growing danger, there are urgent calls for stronger measures to strengthen the current international nuclear nonproliferation regime, including recommendations to place civilian processing of weapon-useable material under multinational control. As well, there are calls for entirely new tools, including military options. As proliferation and terrorism concerns grow, the regime is under pressure and there is a temptation to consider fundamental changes to the regime. In this context, this paper will address the following: Do we need to change the regime centered on the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)? What improvements could ensure it will be the foundation for the proliferation resistance and physical protection needed if nuclear power grows? What will make it a viable centerpiece of future nonproliferation and counterterrorism approaches?

  2. Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change

    OpenAIRE

    Troy Davig; Eric M. Leeper

    2006-01-01

    This paper makes changes in monetary policy rules (or regimes) endogenous. Changes are triggered when certain endogenous variables cross specified thresholds. Rational expectations equilibria are examined in three models of threshold switching to illustrate that (i) expectations formation effects generated by the possibility of regime change can be quantitatively important; (ii) symmetric shocks can have asymmetric effects; (iii) endogenous switching is a natural way to formally model preempt...

  3. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  4. Changes in Latitudes, Changes in Attitudes: Narrating a Regime Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    portrayal of Guatemala to be counter to what was being reported and challenged the narrative. Bernays continued the media assault on Guatemala by convincing...strategic narrative designed to elicit domestic and international support. Drawing from the tenets of social movement theory, this thesis examines the...other special warfare operation. 14. SUBJECT TERMS MISO, PSYOP, social movement theory, regime change, influence 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY

  5. Political regime change, economic liberalization and growth accelerations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong-A-Pin, Richard; De Haan, Jakob

    We examine whether the type of political regime, regime changes, and economic liberalization are related to economic growth accelerations. Our results show that growth accelerations are preceded by economic liberalizations. We also find that growth accelerations are less likely to happen the longer

  6. The transnational regime complex for climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kenneth W Abbott

    2012-01-01

    In climate change, as in other areas, recent years have produced a ‘Cambrian explosion’ of transnational institutions, standards, financing arrangements, and programs. As a result, climate governance has become complex, fragmented, and decentralized, operating without central coordination. Most studies of climate governance focus on inter­state institutions. In contrast, I map a different realm of climate change governance: the diverse array of transnational schemes. I analyze this emerging s...

  7. Changing Forest Disturbance Regimes and Risk Perceptions in Homer, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney G. F1int

    2007-01-01

    Forest disturbances caused by insects can lead to other disturbances, risks, and changes across landscapes. Evaluating the human dimensions of such disturbances furthers understanding of integrated changes in natural and social systems. This article examines the effects of changing forest disturbance regimes on local risk perceptions and attitudes in Homer, Alaska....

  8. Considerations on nonproliferation regime meeting in a changing world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurihara, Hiroyoshi; Kikuchi, Masahiro

    1994-01-01

    This paper summarizes the past history of worldwide nonproliferation regime, then proposes the future improvements on the regime. Present worldwide nonproliferation regime have been formulated during the cold war era. Therefore, the structure and measures of the regime were heavily influenced by the features of cold war era. Though the cold war was over, still new international order does not seem to be on the horizon, we need to review the present regime and to improve the regime compatible to new world situation. Generally speaking, the nonproliferation regime have gained moderate success so far. We could point out the following features as a kind of success: 1) No increase of overt Nuclear Weapon State (NWS), 2) All five NWSs have finally participated to the NPT, 3) South Africa has destroyed its nuclear weapons and became Non-Nuclear Weapon State (NNWS), 4) Successful conclusions of some regional arrangements, such as Tlatelolco, Ralotonga, and 5) Strengthening of export control on sensitive items. On the other hand, we recognize the following points as the failures of the regime. 6) India, Pakistan and Israel reject to join the NPT, 7) Existence of some violation against NPT regime, i.e. Iraqi case and DPRK case, 8) Insufficient effective measures against brain drain problem, 9) Risk exists for the long term extension of NPT, and 10) Insufficient flexibility to meet changing boundary conditions. We would propose the various measures for strengthening to meet changing boundary conditions, as follows: 11) Measures to be taken along with future civil use of Plutonium, 12) Strengthening and rationalizing international safeguards, 13) Countermeasures for emerging new types of nuclear proliferation, 14) Strengthening nuclear material control in NWS, 15) Measures to be taken for nuclear material from dismantled nuclear weapons, and 16) Nuclear disarmament. (author)

  9. International regime formation: Ozone depletion and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busmann, N.E.

    1994-03-01

    Two theoretical perspectives, neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, dominate in international relations. An assessment is made of whether these perspectives provide compelling explanations of why a regime with specific targets and timetables was formed for ozone depletion, while a regime with such specificity was not formed for global climate change. In so doing, the assumptions underlying neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism are examined. A preliminary assessment is offered of the policymaking and institutional bargaining process. Patterns of interstate behavior are evolving toward broader forms of cooperation, at least with regard to global environmental issues, although this process is both slow and cautious. State coalitions on specific issues are not yet powerful enough to create a strong community of states in which states are willing to devolve power to international institutions. It is shown that regime analysis is a useful analytic framework, but it should not be mistaken for theory. Regime analysis provides an organizational framework offering a set of questions regarding the principles and norms that govern cooperation and conflict in an issue area, and whether forces independent of states exist which affect the scope of state behavior. An examination of both neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, embodied by four approaches to regime formation, demonstrates that neither has sufficient scope to account for contextual dynamics in either the ozone depletion or global climate change regime formation processes. 261 refs

  10. Change of secondary water regime of Paks NPP. Change of secondary water regime at Unit 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doma, A.; Patek, G.; Pinter, T.; Bajari, M.; Tilky, P.

    2001-01-01

    The installation of high pH water regime during the 17th cycle of Unit 2 aimed to decrease the amount of transportation inlet of erosion-corrosion products (magnitude) in feedwater to SGs. The resolution of OAH-NBI permitting the installation ordained to make an evaluation of the process. The main conclusions and results are discussed. The high pH water regime proved to be adequate in the case of Unit 2 as well, similarly to Units 3, 4 and 1. (R.P.)

  11. Oil Regime Change in Iraq. Possible Strategic Implications for OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boon Von Ochssee, T.A.

    2006-06-01

    The potential strategic impact of regime change in Iraq and Iran on OPEC in the long-run is explored. In the first part of the paper short overviews are given of the present international oil market; of US oil import issues and energy policy; of the strategic position of the US in the Persian Gulf and of geopolitical developments in the Persian Gulf at large. Also, attention is paid to the OPEC and the role of a 'new' Iraq. In the second part the game of 'boxed pigs' is used to explore the possible strategic impact of regime change in Iraq and possible regime change in Iran on OPEC. This exploration takes place within four possible futures for the Gulf

  12. Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

    2016-01-01

    Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as

  13. Climate Change and Future Fire Regimes: Examples from California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon E. Keeley

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation

  14. Transformational Change and Regime Shifts in the Circumpolar Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annika E. Nilsson

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic is changing rapidly, and there are many indications that the region is in the midst of transformational change. While some of the focus relates to impacts of climate change, rapid economic development and the potential for shifts in political and social structures in the region have also been in the limelight. This article looks at the circumpolar Arctic as a potential case of a regime shift in a large-scale social–ecological system that includes reinforcing feedbacks. A special focus is placed on governance structures, as these play an important role in social negotiations on the relationship between societies and the environment. While climate change is often portrayed as a driver of social change in the Arctic, it does not appear that the ongoing changes in the biophysical features of the Arctic region have rocked current circumpolar governance structures out of kilter. On the contrary, the ongoing climate-related changes, in particular sea ice decline, appear to have reinforced political commitment to existing legal structures. Major past social regime shifts have mainly been related to access to resources and national identity ideology, with political dynamics reinforced at times by military security considerations.

  15. An Interface between Law and Science: The Climate Change Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuleshov, Y.; Grandbois, M.; Kaniaha, S.

    2012-04-01

    Law and Science are jointly building the international climate change regime. Up to date, international law and climate science have been unable to take into consideration both regional law and Pacific climate science in this process. Under the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region) significant efforts were dedicated to improve understanding of climate in the Pacific through the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) and through the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP). The first comprehensive PCCSP scientific report on the South Pacific climate has been published in 2011. Under the PASAP, web-based information tools for seasonal climate prediction have been developed and now outputs from dynamical climate model are used in 15 countries of the North-West and South Pacific for enhanced prediction of rainfall, air and sea surface temperatures which reduces countries' vulnerability to climate variability in the context of a changing climate. On a regional scale, the Meteorological and Geohazards Department of Vanuatu is preparing a full report on Climate change impacts on the country. These scientific reports and tools could lead to a better understanding of climate change in the South Pacific and to a better understanding of climate change science, for lawyers and policy-makers. The International climate change regime develops itself according to science findings, and at the pace of the four scientific reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In return, Law is a contributing factor to climate change, a structural data in the development and perception of environmental issues and it exerts an influence on Science. Because of the dependency of law on science, the PCCSP and PASAP outcomes will also stimulate and orientate developments in law of the Pacific

  16. Towards a Post-2012 Climate Change Regime. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blok, K.; Hoehne, N.; Torvanger, A.; Janzic, R.

    2005-01-01

    It is broadly recognised that the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the result of years of intensive international negotiations, is only the first step in combating human-induced climate change. Further action is necessary to reach the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC, i.e. 'stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system'. The key issue is how to share this action between all global regions and Parties to the UNFCCC. Annex I Parties have committed themselves to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the first commitment period 2008 to 2012 by around five per cent compared to 1990 levels. The Kyoto mechanisms, emissions trading, Joint Implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism, play a very important role. Currently, valuable experience is being gathered with the implementation of these mechanisms. Preparations for the second commitment period have begun, but there is much uncertainty as to how the process will unfold and what a final agreement could entail. This study is set-up as support material for the European Commission on Further Action in the UNFCCC Post-2012 process. Its objective is to: (1) analyze relevant country groupings and possibilities for future regimes; (2) collect and assess available approaches to future commitments; and (3) to come with concrete proposals for a future regime and the associated negotiation process

  17. Implications of climate change on flow regime affecting Atlantic salmon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios (2070–2100 suggest that the UK climate will become warmer (an overall increase of 2.5–3°C, with temperature increases being greater in the summer and autumn than in the spring and winter seasons. In terms of precipitation, winters are expected to become wetter and summers drier throughout the UK. The effect of changes in the future climate on flow regimes are investigated for the Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, in a case study in an upland UK river. Using a hydraulic modelling approach, flows simulated across the catchment are assessed in terms of hydraulic characteristics (discharge per metre width, flow depths, flow velocities and Froude number. These, compared with suitable characteristics published in the literature for various life stages of Atlantic salmon, enable assessment of habitat suitability. Climate change factors have been applied to meteorological observations in the Eden catchment (north-west England and effects on the flow regime have been investigated using the SHETRAN hydrological modelling system. High flows are predicted to increase by up to 1.5%; yet, a greater impact is predicted from decreasing low flows (e.g. a Q95 at the outlet of the study catchment may decrease to a Q85 flow. Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (RRV analysis provides a statistical indication of the extent and effect of such changes on flows. Results show that future climate will decrease the percentage time the ideal minimum physical habitat requirements will be met. In the case of suitable flow depth for spawning activity at the outlet of the catchment, the percentage time may decrease from 100% under current conditions to 94% in the future. Such changes will have implications for the species under the Habitats Directive and for catchment ecological flow management strategies.

  18. Sensitivity of Alpine Snow and Streamflow Regimes to Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Marks, D. G.; Bernhardt, M.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the sensitivity of hydrological processes to climate change in alpine areas with snow dominated regimes is of paramount importance as alpine basins show both high runoff efficiency associated with the melt of the seasonal snowpack and great sensitivity of snow processes to temperature change. In this study, meteorological data measured in a selection of alpine headwaters basins including Reynolds Mountain East, Idaho, USA, Wolf Creek, Yukon in Canada, and Zugspitze Mountain, Germany with climates ranging from arctic to continental temperate were used to study the snow and streamflow sensitivity to climate change. All research sites have detailed multi-decadal meteorological and snow measurements. The Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) was used to create a model representing a typical alpine headwater basin discretized into hydrological response units with physically based representations of snow redistribution by wind, complex terrain snowmelt energetics and runoff processes in alpine tundra. The sensitivity of snow hydrology to climate change was investigated by changing air temperature and precipitation using weather generating methods based on the change factors obtained from different climate model projections for future and current periods. The basin mean and spatial variability of peak snow water equivalent, sublimation loss, duration of snow season, snowmelt rates, streamflow peak, and basin discharge were assessed under varying climate scenarios and the most sensitive hydrological mechanisms to the changes in the different alpine climates were detected. The results show that snow hydrology in colder alpine climates is more resilient to warming than that in warmer climates, but that compensatory factors to warming such as reduced blowing snow sublimation loss and reduced melt rate should also be assessed when considering climate change impacts on alpine hydrology.

  19. Fisheries regulatory regimes and resilience to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojea, Elena; Pearlman, Isaac; Gaines, Steven D; Lester, Sarah E

    2017-05-01

    Climate change is already producing ecological, social, and economic impacts on fisheries, and these effects are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude in the future. Fisheries governance and regulations can alter socio-ecological resilience to climate change impacts via harvest control rules and incentives driving fisher behavior, yet there are no syntheses or conceptual frameworks for examining how institutions and their regulatory approaches can alter fisheries resilience to climate change. We identify nine key climate resilience criteria for fisheries socio-ecological systems (SES), defining resilience as the ability of the coupled system of interacting social and ecological components (i.e., the SES) to absorb change while avoiding transformation into a different undesirable state. We then evaluate the capacity of four fisheries regulatory systems that vary in their degree of property rights, including open access, limited entry, and two types of rights-based management, to increase or inhibit resilience. Our exploratory assessment of evidence in the literature suggests that these regulatory regimes vary widely in their ability to promote resilient fisheries, with rights-based approaches appearing to offer more resilience benefits in many cases, but detailed characteristics of the regulatory instruments are fundamental.

  20. The concept of regime values: Are revitalization and regime change possible?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overeem, P.

    2015-01-01

    Among the plethora of public values, one special class is that of “regime values.” This notion plays a central role in the constitutional approach to public administration mainly developed by the late John A. Rohr. In this article, an attempt is made to assess the viability of Rohr’s concept of

  1. Accountability Challenges in the Transnational Regime Complex for Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Widerberg, O.E.; Pattberg, P.H.

    2017-01-01

    This article discusses challenges to accountability in the context of transnational climate governance. It argues that the emergence of a distinct transnational regime complex and the increasingly integrated structure of international and transnational climate governance create new challenges for

  2. Regime Change in North Africa and Implications for

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MUMO

    networks and; the future of repressive regimes on the continent. A Conceptual ..... The former President of Burkina Faso, Thomas Sankara, once reportedly said that “power is like a bottle ..... Liberal Democracy and its Critics in Africa: Political.

  3. Accountability Challenges in the Transnational Regime Complex for Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Widerberg, O.E.; Pattberg, P.H.

    2017-01-01

    This article discusses challenges to accountability in the context of transnational climate governance. It argues that the emergence of a distinct transnational regime complex and the increasingly integrated structure of international and transnational climate governance create new challenges for using established analytical frameworks that rely on accountability regimes for individual actor types. Instead, studying accountability requires a system-level conceptualization and a revisiting of ...

  4. Climate Change Altered Disturbance Regimes in High Elevation Pine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, J. A.

    2004-12-01

    Insects in aggregate are the greatest cause of forest disturbance. Outbreaks of both native and exotic insects can be spectacular events in both their intensity and spatial extent. In the case of native species, forest ecosystems have co-evolved (or at least co-adapted) in ways that incorporate these disturbances into the normal cycle of forest maturation and renewal. The time frame of response to changing climate, however, is much shorter for insects (typically one year) than for their host forests (decades or longer). As a result, outbreaks of forest insects, particularly bark beetles, are occurring at unprecedented levels throughout western North America, resulting in the loss of biodiversity and potentially entire ecosystems. In this talk, I will describe one such ecosystem, the whitebark pine association at high elevations in the north-central Rocky Mountains of the United States. White bark pines are keystone species, which in consort with Clark's nutcracker, build entire ecosystems at high elevations. These ecosystems provide valuable ecological services, including the distribution and abundance of water resources. I will briefly describe the keystone nature of whitebark pine and the historic role of mountain pine beetle disturbance in these ecosystems. The mountain pine beetle is the most important outbreak insect in forests of the western United States. Although capable of spectacular outbreak events, in historic climate regimes, outbreak populations were largely restricted to lower elevation pines; for example, lodgepole and ponderosa pines. The recent series of unusually warm years, however, has allowed this insect to expand its range into high elevation, whitebark pine ecosystems with devastating consequences. The aspects of mountain pine beetle thermal ecology that has allowed it to capitalize so effectively on a warming climate will be discussed. A model that incorporates critical thermal attributes of the mountain pine beetle's life cycle was

  5. Exchange rate volatility and regime change: Visegrad comparison

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Valachy, J.

    -, č. 7 (2006), s. 1-36 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/06/1293 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : exchange rate regime s * volatility * transition Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/21616/1/IPC-working-paper-007-KocendaValachy.pdf

  6. Exchange rate volatility and regime change: a Visegrad comparison

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Valachy, J.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 4 (2006), s. 727-753 ISSN 0147-5967 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : exchange rate s * exchange rate regime s * volatility Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.964, year: 2006 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2006.07.003

  7. Iraq: U.S. Regime Change Efforts and Post-Saddam Governance

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Katzman, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    .... Administrations had ruled out major U.S. military action to change Iraq's regime, believing such action would be risky and not necessarily justified by the level of Iraq's lack of compliance on WMD disarmament...

  8. Iraq: U.S. Regime Change Efforts and Post-Saddam Governance

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Katzman, Kenneth

    2003-01-01

    .... Administrations had ruled out major U.S. military action to change Iraq's regime, believing such action would be risky and not necessarily justified by the level of Iraq's lack of compliance on WMD disarmament...

  9. Impacts of changing climate and snow cover on the flow regime of Jhelum River, Western Himalayas

    KAUST Repository

    Azmat, Muhammad; Liaqat, Umar Waqas; Qamar, Muhammad Uzair; Awan, Usman Khalid

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the change in climate variables and snow cover dynamics and their impact on the hydrological regime of the Jhelum River basin in Western Himalayas. This study utilized daily streamflow records from Mangla dam, spanning a time

  10. How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lluís Brotons

    Full Text Available Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain. We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape

  11. How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and

  12. How Fire History, Fire Suppression Practices and Climate Change Affect Wildfire Regimes in Mediterranean Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and

  13. Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Daniel; Sun, Zhanli; Vongvisouk, Thoumthone

    2014-01-01

    Payment schemes for ecosystem services such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) rely on the prediction of ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios to ensure that emission reductions from carbon credits are additional. However, land systems often undergo periods of nonlinear...... and abrupt change that invalidate predictions calibrated on past trends. Rapid land-system change can occur when critical thresholds in broad-scale underlying drivers such as commodity prices and climate conditions are crossed or when sudden events such as political change or natural disasters punctuate long...

  14. Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupert Seidl; Thomas A. Spies; David L. Peterson; Scott L. Stephens; Jeffrey A. Hicke

    2015-01-01

    Summary 1. The provisioning of ecosystem services to society is increasingly under pressure from global change. Changing disturbance regimes are of particular concern in this context due to their high potential impact on ecosystem structure, function and composition. Resiliencebased stewardship is advocated to address these changes in ecosystem management,...

  15. Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Spies, Thomas A.; Peterson, David L.; Stephens, Scott L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.

    2016-01-01

    Summary 1. The provisioning of ecosystem services to society is increasingly under pressure from global change. Changing disturbance regimes are of particular concern in this context due to their high potential impact on ecosystem structure, function and composition. Resilience-based stewardship is advocated to address these changes in ecosystem management, but its operational implementation has remained challenging. 2. We review observed and expected changes in disturbance regimes and their potential impacts on provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services, concentrating on temperate and boreal forests. Subsequently, we focus on resilience as a powerful concept to quantify and address these changes and their impacts, and present an approach towards its operational application using established methods from disturbance ecology. 3. We suggest using the range of variability concept – characterizing and bounding the long-term behaviour of ecosystems – to locate and delineate the basins of attraction of a system. System recovery in relation to its range of variability can be used to measure resilience of ecosystems, allowing inferences on both engineering resilience (recovery rate) and monitoring for regime shifts (directionality of recovery trajectory). 4. It is important to consider the dynamic nature of these properties in ecosystem analysis and management decision-making, as both disturbance processes and mechanisms of resilience will be subject to changes in the future. Furthermore, because ecosystem services are at the interface between natural and human systems, the social dimension of resilience (social adaptive capacity and range of variability) requires consideration in responding to changing disturbance regimes in forests. 5. Synthesis and applications. Based on examples from temperate and boreal forests we synthesize principles and pathways for fostering resilience to changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. We

  16. Non-disruptive regime changes-The case of competing energy efficient lighting trajectories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Franceschini, Simone; Alkemade, Floortje

    2016-01-01

    Technologies within the same industry are expected to follow similar patterns of innovation, and when the dominant patterns change, this is often expected to have disruptive effects on the industry. However, the three most recent lighting technologies (fluorescent, compact fluorescent, and LED......) show different patterns of innovative activities despite similarities in the determinants of innovation; and we observed multiple technological regimes within the lighting industry. Furthermore, we observed changes in these innovative patterns without widespread disruptive effects. While FL and LED...... for policymakers in stimulating new technologies in industries with undesirable Mark II pattern through the influence of all the dimensions of the technological regimes....

  17. Institutional change to support regime transformation: Lessons from Australia's water sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werbeloff, Lara; Brown, Rebekah; Cocklin, Chris

    2017-07-01

    Institutional change is fundamental to regime transformation, and a necessary part of moving toward integrated water management. However, insight into the role of institutional change processes in such transitions is currently limited. A more nuanced understanding of institutional frameworks is necessary, both to advance understanding of institutional change in the context of transitions toward improved water management and to inform strategies for guiding such processes. To this end, we examine two contemporary cases of transformative change in Australia's urban water sector, exploring the evolution of institutional change in each city. This paper offers insights into regime transformation, providing guidance on types of institutional structures and the ways structure-change initiatives can be sequenced to support a transition. The results reveal the importance of regulation in embedding regime change and suggest that engagement with structural frameworks should begin early in transition processes to ensure the timely introduction of supporting regulation. Our findings also highlight the inextricable link between culture-based and structure-based change initiatives, and the importance of using a diverse range of institutional change mechanisms in a mutually reinforcing way to provide a strong foundation for change. These findings provide a foundation for further scholarly examination of institutional change mechanisms, while also serving to inform the strategic activities of transition-oriented organizations and actors.

  18. Consideration on non-proliferation regime meeting in a changing world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurihara, Hiroyoshi; Kikuchi, Masahiro

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents some proposals for improvement of non-proliferation regime including safeguards structures with historical changes of international regime. Current non-proliferation regime was established under the circumstances of Cold War, and it's structure and measures were influenced by the situation of these time. Although, a couple of years have passed from end of Cold War, new world order has not established yet. Therefore, it is expected that the current regime could be improved in accordance with new world order. Generally speaking, it could be welcomed that the current regime has got some successes from two points of views, namely no new nuclear weapon states have emerged and after the establishment of NPT and all nuclear weapon state is joined NPT finally. However, it is the authors' concern that some gray countries, such as India, Pakistan and Israel, have not joined the NPT yet and cases of Iraqi and DPRK have occurred. After reviewing of such new situation, some proposals will be presented in order to strengthen the nonproliferation regime to meet current world conditions

  19. Iterative functionalism and climate management regimes: From intergovernmental panel on climate change to intergovernmental negotiating committee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feldman, D.L.; Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN

    1992-01-01

    This paper contends that an iterative ''functionalist'' regime -- comprised of international organizations that monitor the global climate and perform scientific and policy research on prevention, mitigation, and adaptation strategies for response to possible global warming -- has developed over the past decade. A common global effort by scientists, diplomats, and others to negotiate a framework convention that would reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other ''greenhouse gases'' has been brought about by this regime. Individuals that participate in this regime are engaged in several cooperative activities including: (1) international research on the causes and consequences of global change; (2) global environmental monitoring and standard-setting for analyses of climate data; and (3) negotiating a framework convention that places limits on greenhouse gas emissions by countries. The implications of this iterative approach for successful implementation of a treaty to forestall global climate change are discussed

  20. Integrated trend assessment of ecosystem changes in the Limfjord (Denmark): evidence of a recent regime shift?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomczak, Maciej Tomasz; Dinesen, Grete E.; Hoffmann, Erik

    2012-01-01

    An integrated ecosystem assessment was carried out for the Limfjord over the period from 1984 to 2008 to describe changes in ecosystem structure and potentially important drivers. The Limfjord is an eutrophic transitional Danish fjord system with the main inflow from the North Sea in the west and...... further showed the regime shift to be driven by a combination of anthropogenic pressures and possible interplay with climatic disturbance......An integrated ecosystem assessment was carried out for the Limfjord over the period from 1984 to 2008 to describe changes in ecosystem structure and potentially important drivers. The Limfjord is an eutrophic transitional Danish fjord system with the main inflow from the North Sea in the west......), jellyfish, common shore crab, starfish and blue mussels. We interpret this change as a regime shift that showed a similar temporal pattern to regime shifts identified in adjacent seas. The observed changes in trophic interactions and food web reorganisation suggested a non-linear regime shift. The analyses...

  1. Projected impact of climate change on hydrological regimes in the Philippines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tolentino, Pamela Louise M.; Poortinga, Ate; Kanamaru, Hideki; Keesstra, Saskia; Maroulis, Jerry; David, Carlos Primo C.; Ritsema, Coen J.

    2016-01-01

    The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces

  2. Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fréjaville, Thibaut; Curt, Thomas

    2017-03-01

    Human activities have altered fire regimes for millennia by suppressing or enhancing natural fire activity. However, whether these anthropogenic pressures on fire activity have exceeded and will surpass climate forcing still remains uncertain. We tested if, how and the extent to which seasonal fire activity in southern France has recently (1976-2009) deviated from climate-expected trends. The latter were simulated using an ensemble of detrended fire-climate models. We found both seasonal and regional contrasts in climatic effects through a mixture of drought-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes. Dry contemporary conditions chiefly drove fire frequency and burned area, although higher fire activity was related to wetter conditions in the last three years. Surprisingly, the relative importance of preceding wet conditions was higher in winter than in summer, illustrating the strong potential dependency of regional fire-climate relationships on the human use and control of fires. In the Mediterranean mountains, warm winters and springs favour extensive fires in the following dry summer. These results highlight that increasing dryness with climate change could have antagonistic effects on fire regime by leading to larger fires in summer (moisture-limited), but lower fire activity in winter (fuel-limited fire regime). Furthermore, fire trends have significantly diverged from climatic expectations, with a strong negative alteration in fire activity in the Mediterranean lowlands and the summer burned area in the mountains. In contrast, alteration of winter fire frequency in the Mediterranean and Temperate mountains has shifted from positive to negative (or null) trends during the mid-1990s, a period when fire suppression policy underwent major revisions. Our findings demonstrate that changes in land-use and fire suppression policy have probably exceeded the strength of climate change effects on changing fire regime in southern Europe, making regional predictions of future

  3. Spatial adjustments of mountain channels to changes in the sediment supply regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgueta, M. A.; Hassan, M. A.; von Flotow, C. M.

    2012-12-01

    Sediment supply is a key controlling factor in bed morphology and sediment mobility. Under a low supply regime, bed structuring develops and reduces sediment mobility. Under high supply, structuring is suppressed and the bed exhibits patchiness. This study examines the spatial response of a mountain stream channel to changes in the sediment supply regime. To achieve this goal, a flume experiment was conducted in the Mountain Channel Hydraulic Experimental Laboratory at the University of British Columbia. An 18 meter long, one meter wide flume, with a slope of three percent was used. Seven continuous runs were conducted. Each of them lasted 40 hours, under constant flow and different sediment supply regimes, which included no feed, constant feed and episodic supply. In each run, bed elevation, bed grain size distribution, flow resistance, sediment mobility and degree of armoring were determined. Flume results were compared to field data from a 600 meter channel reach that exhibits rapid, riffle-pool and step-pool morphology in UBC Malcolm Knapp Research Forest. The study gave the possibility to analyze in detail the spatial adjustment of a mountain channel to changes in the sediment supply regime, including episodic inputs.

  4. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wanders

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a

  5. Multiple Changes in the Hydrologic Regime of the Yangtze River and the Possible Impact of Reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Huang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates hydrologic changes in the Yangtze River using long-term daily stream flow records (1955–2013 collected from four flow gauging stations located from the upper to the lower reaches of the river. The hydrologic regime is quantified using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration, which statistically characterize hydrologic variation within each year. Scanning t-test is applied to analyze multiple changes in the hydrologic regime at different time scales. Then, coherency analysis is applied to identify common changes among different hydrologic indicators and across different reaches of the Yangtze River. The results point to various change patterns in the five components of hydrologic regime, including the magnitude of monthly water conditions, magnitude and duration of annual extreme water conditions, timing of annual extreme water conditions, frequency and duration of high and low pulses, and rate and frequency of water condition changes. The 32 hydrologic indicators feature multiple temporal-scale changes. Spatial variations can be observed in the hydrologic changes of the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the river. Common changes in different reaches consist of hydrologic indicators including the monthly flow in October and the low-flow indicators. The monthly flow in October is dominated by decreasing trends, while the monthly flows between January and March, the annual minimum 1/3/7/30/90-day flows, and the base flow index are characterized by increasing trends. Low pulse duration and total days of low pulses feature downward trends. The coherency analysis reveals significant relationships between the monthly flow in October and the low-flow indicators, indicating that reservoir regulation is an important factor behind the hydrologic changes.

  6. Dynamical regimes due to technological change in a microeconomical model of production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamacher, K.

    2012-09-01

    We develop a microeconomical model to investigate the impact of technological change onto production decisions of suppliers—modeling an effective feedback mechanism of the market. An important property—the time horizon of production planning—is related to the Kolmogorov entropy of the one-dimensional maps describing price dynamics. We simulate this price dynamics in an ensemble representing the whole macroeconomy. We show how this model can be used to support ongoing research in economic growth and incorporate the obtained microeconomic findings into the discussion about appropriate macroeconomic quantities such as the production function—thus effectively underpinning macroeconomics with microeconomical dynamics. From there we can show that the model exhibits different dynamical regimes (suggesting "phase transitions") with respect to an order parameter. The non-linear feedback under technological change was found to be the crucial mechanism. The implications of the obtained regimes are finally discussed.

  7. Robust incentives and the design of a climate change governance regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemet, Gregory F.

    2010-01-01

    In building a governance regime to address climate change, should we prioritize the development of global institutions or national ones? This paper focuses on two neglected characteristics to inform the governance problem: the incentives for investment in low-carbon energy technology and the influence of historical policy volatility. Examining a case study of an important low-carbon energy technology, wind power, this study finds: (1) policy volatility has been substantial, (2) policy changes were uncorrelated across jurisdictions, suggesting that (3) investors could have substantially reduced their exposure to the risk of policy volatility by operating globally. While it also has downsides, a poorly coordinated international policy regime has the advantage of reducing the risk associated with a global policy failure. Beyond this case study, the importance of this positive effect depends on: the probability of policy failures in each country, the correlations among them, and the probability of a global policy failure. (author)

  8. Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajracharya, Ajay Ratna; Bajracharya, Sagar Ratna; Shrestha, Arun Bhakta; Maharjan, Sudan Bikash

    2018-06-01

    The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region is an important global freshwater resource. The hydrological regime of the region is vulnerable to climatic variations, especially precipitation and temperature. In our study, we modelled the impact of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the snow dominated Kaligandaki Basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for a future projection of changes in the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki basin based on Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) of ensemble downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's (CMIP5) General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. It is predicted to be a rise in the average annual temperature of over 4°C, and an increase in the average annual precipitation of over 26% by the end of the 21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario. Modeling results show these will lead to significant changes in the basin's water balance and hydrological regime. In particular, a 50% increase in discharge is expected at the outlet of the basin. Snowmelt contribution will largely be affected by climate change, and it is projected to increase by 90% by 2090.Water availability in the basin is not likely to decrease during the 21st century. The study demonstrates that the important water balance components of snowmelt, evapotranspiration, and water yield at higher elevations in the upper and middle sub-basins of the Kaligandaki Basin will be most affected by the increasing temperatures and precipitation. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Sensitivity of Regulated Flow Regimes to Climate Change in the Western United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tian [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Voisin, Nathalie [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Leng, Guoyong [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Huang, Maoyi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Kraucunas, Ian [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2018-03-01

    Water management activities or flow regulations modify water fluxes at the land surface and affect water resources in space and time. We hypothesize that flow regulations change the sensitivity of river flow to climate change with respect to unmanaged water resources. Quantifying these changes in sensitivity could help elucidate the impacts of water management at different spatiotemporal scales and inform climate adaptation decisions. In this study, we compared the emergence of significant changes in natural and regulated river flow regimes across the Western United States from simulations driven by multiple climate models and scenarios. We find that significant climate change-induced alterations in natural flow do not cascade linearly through water management activities. At the annual time scale, 50% of the Hydrologic Unit Code 4 (HUC4) sub-basins over the Western U.S. regions tend to have regulated flow regime more sensitive to the climate change than natural flow regime. Seasonality analyses show that the sensitivity varies remarkably across the seasons. We also find that the sensitivity is related to the level of water management. For 35% of the HUC4 sub-basins with the highest level of water management, the summer and winter flows tend to show a heightened sensitivity to climate change due to the complexity of joint reservoir operations. We further demonstrate that the impacts of considering water management in models are comparable to those that arises from uncertainties across climate models and emission scenarios. This prompts further climate adaptation studies research about nonlinearity effects of climate change through water management activities.

  10. Alaska's Changing Fire Regime - Implications for the Vulnerability of Its Boreal Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasischke, E. S.; Hoy, E. E.; Verbyla, D. L.; Rupp, T. S.; Duffy, P. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Murphy, K. A.; Jandt, R.; Barnes, J. L.; Calef, M.; hide

    2010-01-01

    A synthesis was carried out to examine Alaska s boreal forest fire regime. During the 2000s, an average of 767 000 ha/year burned, 50% higher than in any previous decade since the 1940s. Over the past 60 years, there was a decrease in the number of lightning-ignited fires, an increase in extreme lightning-ignited fire events, an increase in human-ignited fires, and a decrease in the number of extreme human-ignited fire events. The fraction of area burned from humanignited fires fell from 26% for the 1950s and 1960s to 5% for the 1990s and 2000s, a result from the change in fire policy that gave the highest suppression priorities to fire events that occurred near human settlements. The amount of area burned during late-season fires increased over the past two decades. Deeper burning of surface organic layers in black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) forests occurred during late-growing-season fires and on more well-drained sites. These trends all point to black spruce forests becoming increasingly vulnerable to the combined changes of key characteristics of Alaska s fire regime, except on poorly drained sites, which are resistant to deep burning. The implications of these fire regime changes to the vulnerability and resilience of Alaska s boreal forests and land and fire management are discussed.

  11. Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

    2005-01-01

    We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability

  12. STOCHASTIC DESCRIPTION OF THE HIGH-FREQUENCY CONTENT OF DAILY SUNSPOTS AND EVIDENCE FOR REGIME CHANGES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapoval, A.; Le Mouël, J.-L.; Courtillot, V.; Shnirman, M.

    2015-01-01

    The irregularity index λ is applied to the high-frequency content of daily sunspot numbers ISSN. This λ is a modification of the standard maximal Lyapunov exponent. It is computed here as a function of embedding dimension m, within four-year time windows centered at the maxima of Schwabe cycles. The λ(m) curves form separate clusters (pre-1923 and post-1933). This supports a regime transition and narrows its occurrence to cycle 16, preceding the growth of activity leading to the Modern Maximum. The two regimes are reproduced by a simple autoregressive process AR(1), with the mean of Poisson noise undergoing 11 yr modulation. The autocorrelation a of the process (linked to sunspot lifetime) is a ≈ 0.8 for 1850-1923 and ≈0.95 for 1933-2013. The AR(1) model suggests that groups of spots appear with a Poisson rate and disappear at a constant rate. We further applied the irregularity index to the daily sunspot group number series for the northern and southern hemispheres, provided by the Greenwich Royal Observatory (RGO), in order to study a possible desynchronization. Correlations between the north and south λ(m) curves vary quite strongly with time and indeed show desynchronization. This may reflect a slow change in the dimension of an underlying dynamical system. The ISSN and RGO series of group numbers do not imply an identical mechanism, but both uncover a regime change at a similar time. Computation of the irregularity index near the maximum of cycle 24 will help in checking whether yet another regime change is under way

  13. Evaluating Regime Change of Sediment Transport in the Jingjiang River Reach, Yangtze River, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li He

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The sediment regime in the Jingjiang river reach of the middle Yangtze River has been significantly changed from quasi-equilibrium to unsaturated since the impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD. Vertical profiles of suspended sediment concentration (SSC and sediment flux can be adopted to evaluate the sediment regime at the local and reach scale, respectively. However, the connection between the vertical concentration profiles and the hydrologic conditions of the sub-saturated channel has rarely been examined based on field data. Thus, vertical concentration data at three hydrological stations in the reach (Zhicheng, Shashi, and Jianli are collected. Analyses show that the near-bed concentration (within 10% of water depth from the riverbed may reach up to 15 times that of the vertical average concentration. By comparing the fractions of the suspended sediment and bed material before and after TGD operation, the geomorphic condition under which the distinct large near-bed concentrations occur have been examined. Based on daily discharge-sediment hydrographs, the reach scale sediment regime and availability of sediment sources are analyzed. In total, remarkable large near-bed concentrations may respond to the combination of wide grading suspended particles and bed material. Finally, several future challenges caused by the anomalous vertical concentration profiles in the unsaturated reach are discussed. This indicates that more detailed measurements or new measuring technologies may help us to provide accurate measurements, while a fractional dispersion equation may help us in describing. The present study aims to gain new insights into regime change of sediment suspension in the river reaches downstream of a very large reservoir.

  14. Pre-"peak water" time in the southwest Yukon: when cryospheric changes trigger hydrological regime shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baraer, M.; Chesnokova, A.; Huh, K. I.; Laperriere-Robillard, T.

    2017-12-01

    Saint-Elias Mountains host numerous cryospheric systems such as glaciers, seasonal and perennial snow cover, permafrost, aufeis, and different forms of buried ice. Those systems are very sensitive to climate changes and exhibit ongoing reduction in extent and/or changes in formation/ablation times. Because they highly influence the hydrological regimes of rivers, cryospheric changes raise concerns about consequences for regional water resources and ecosystems. The present study combines historical data analysis and hydrological modeling in order to estimate how cryospheric changes impact hydrological regimes at eight watersheds of different glacier cover (0- 30%) in the southwest Yukon. Methods combine traditional hydrograph analysis techniques and more advance techniques such as Fast Fourier Transform filters used to isolate significant trends in discharge properties from noise or climatic oscillations. Measured trends in discharge variables are connected to cryospheric changes by using a water balance / peak water model (Baraer et al., 2012), here adapted to the main cryospheric systems that characterize the southwest Yukon.Results show three distinct hydrological regimes for (1) non glacierized, (2) glacierized, and (3) major lakes hosting catchments. The studied glacierized catchments have not passed the "peak water" yet and still exhibit increases in yearly and late summer discharges and a decrease in runoff variability. All watersheds show an increase in winter discharge and a snowmelt-driven shift of yearly peak discharge toward earlier in the season. The study suggests that, in a couple of decades, water resources and dependent ecosystems will face the combined effects of (A) a shift in the contribution trend from declining perennial cryospheric systems and (B) continuing alteration of the contribution from the seasonal cryospheric systems.

  15. Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pumo, Dario, E-mail: dario.pumo@unipa.it; Caracciolo, Domenico, E-mail: domenico.caracciolo@unipa.it; Viola, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.viola77@unipa.it; Noto, Leonardo V., E-mail: leonardo.noto@unipa.it

    2016-01-15

    Recent years have been witnessing an increasing interest on global climate change and, although we are only at the first stage of the projected trends, some signals of climate alteration are already visible. Climate change encompasses modifications in the characteristics of several interrelated climate variables, and unavoidably produces relevant effects on almost all the natural processes related to the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on potential impacts of climate variations on the streamflow regime of small river basins in Mediterranean, seasonally dry, regions. The paper provides a quantitative evaluation of potential modifications in the flow duration curves (FDCs) and in the partitioning between surface and subsurface contributions to streamflow, induced by climate changes projected over the next century in different basins, also exploring the role exerted by different soil–vegetation compositions. To this aim, it is used a recent hydrological model, which is calibrated at five Sicilian (Italy) basins using a past period with available streamflow observations. The model is then forced by daily precipitation and reference evapotranspiration series representative of the current climatic conditions and two future temporal horizons, referring to the time windows 2045–2065 and 2081–2100. Future climatic series are generated by a weather generator, based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The results show how the projected climatic modifications are differently reflected in the hydrological response of the selected basins, implying, in general, a sensible downshift of the FDCs, with a significant reduction in the mean annual streamflow, and substantial alterations in streamflow seasonality and in the relative importance of the surface and subsurface components. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime of ephemeral rivers could have important implications for the water resource management and

  16. Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pumo, Dario; Caracciolo, Domenico; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V.

    2016-01-01

    Recent years have been witnessing an increasing interest on global climate change and, although we are only at the first stage of the projected trends, some signals of climate alteration are already visible. Climate change encompasses modifications in the characteristics of several interrelated climate variables, and unavoidably produces relevant effects on almost all the natural processes related to the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on potential impacts of climate variations on the streamflow regime of small river basins in Mediterranean, seasonally dry, regions. The paper provides a quantitative evaluation of potential modifications in the flow duration curves (FDCs) and in the partitioning between surface and subsurface contributions to streamflow, induced by climate changes projected over the next century in different basins, also exploring the role exerted by different soil–vegetation compositions. To this aim, it is used a recent hydrological model, which is calibrated at five Sicilian (Italy) basins using a past period with available streamflow observations. The model is then forced by daily precipitation and reference evapotranspiration series representative of the current climatic conditions and two future temporal horizons, referring to the time windows 2045–2065 and 2081–2100. Future climatic series are generated by a weather generator, based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The results show how the projected climatic modifications are differently reflected in the hydrological response of the selected basins, implying, in general, a sensible downshift of the FDCs, with a significant reduction in the mean annual streamflow, and substantial alterations in streamflow seasonality and in the relative importance of the surface and subsurface components. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime of ephemeral rivers could have important implications for the water resource management and

  17. Formalizing knowledge on international environmental regimes: A first step towards integrating political science in integrated assessments of global environmental change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vos, M.G.; Janssen, P.H.M.; Kok, M.T.J.; Frantzi, S.; Dellas, E.D.; Pattberg, P.H.; Petersen, A.C.; Biermann, F.

    2013-01-01

    International environmental regimes are considered key factors in dealing with global environmental change problems. It is important to understand if and how regimes are effective in tackling these problems, which requires knowledge on their potential impact on these problems as well as on their

  18. Linking sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change in boreal forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda B. Brubaker; Philip E. Higuera; T. Scott Rupp; Mark A. Olson; Patricia M. Anderson; Feng Sheng. Hu

    2009-01-01

    Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecological model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a...

  19. The "Arab Spring": New Mechanisms of Change of Authoritarian Political Regimes

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    Ekaterina A. Antyukhova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article explores the use of mechanisms in bringing down authoritarian political regimes in the Middle East and North Africa with the "Arab spring" in focus. The technique of "non-violent" methods of fight suggested by "godfather" of the "Arab spring" Gene Sharp is analyzed. It is noted that the distinctive features of his system were planned, determined and dynamic actions of protest forces. A special place in the article is devoted to the study of the role of non-governmental organizations in selecting and training protest leaders and activists and in creating a network of supporters of prodemocratic movements. The article examines the role of the Internet and cyber technologies used by the opposition during protest rallies. Non-violence as means of bringing down the existing power turned out to be an alternative to armed resistance. The key role of non-violent actions consisted in changing the point of view of anti-government forces, demonstrating that the public solidarity could make the regime overthrow possible. It is noted that the latest information means gave the process of political changes due activity and focus which was followed by the information actions designed to discredit the government in place and form the corresponding public opinion. Mediatization of politics promoted the creation of a dense information veil retouching a real picture. The overall system of methods used during the "the Arab spring" indicates that the mechanism of overthrowing authoritarian regimes and its technologies came from Western culture and were borrowed by Arab activists.

  20. Flow Regime Changes: From Impounding a Temperate Lowland River to Small Hydropower Operations

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    Petras Punys

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the environmental issues facing small hydropower plants (SHPs operating in temperate lowland rivers of Lithuania. The research subjects are two medium head reservoir type hydro schemes considered within a context of the global fleet of SHPs in the country. This research considers general abiotic indicators (flow, level, water retention time in the reservoirs of the stream that may affect the aquatic systems. The main idea was to test whether the hydrologic regime has been altered by small hydropower dams. The analysis of changes in abiotic indicators is a complex process, including both pre- and post-reservoir construction and post commissioning of the SHPs under operation. Downstream hydrograph (flow and stage ramping is also an issue for operating SHPs that can result in temporary rapid changes in flow and consequently negatively impact aquatic resources. This ramping has been quantitatively evaluated. To avoid the risk of excessive flow ramping, the types of turbines available were evaluated and the most suitable types for the natural river flow regime were identified. The results of this study are to allow for new hydro schemes or upgrades to use water resources in a more sustainable way.

  1. Climate Change Impacts on Runoff Regimes at a River Basin Scale in Central Vietnam

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    Do Hoai Nam

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming has resulted in significant variability of global climate especially with regard to variation in temperature and precipitation. As a result, it is expected that river flow regimes will be accordingly varied. This study presents a preliminary projection of medium-term and long-term runoff variation caused by climate change at a river basin scale. The large scale precipitation projection at the middle and the end of the 21st century under the A1B scenario simulated by the CGCM model (MRI & JMA, 300 km resolution is statistically downscaled to a basin scale and then used as input for the super-tank model for runoff analysis at the upper Thu Bon River basin in Central Vietnam. Results show that by the middle and the end of this century annual rainfall will increase slightly; together with a rising temperature, potential evapotranspiration is also projected to increase as well. The total annual runoff, as a result, is found to be not distinctly varied relative to the baseline period 1981 - 2000; however, the runoff will decrease in the dry season and increase in the rainy season. The results also indicate the delay tendency of the high river flow period, shifting from Sep-Dec at present to Oct-Jan in the future. The present study demonstrates potential impacts of climate change on streamflow regimes in attempts to propose appropriate adaptation measures and responses at the river basin scales.

  2. Flow regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kh'yuitt, G.

    1980-01-01

    An introduction into the problem of two-phase flows is presented. Flow regimes arizing in two-phase flows are described, and classification of these regimes is given. Structures of vertical and horizontal two-phase flows and a method of their identification using regime maps are considered. The limits of this method application are discussed. The flooding phenomena and phenomena of direction change (flow reversal) of the flow and interrelation of these phenomena as well as transitions from slug regime to churn one and from churn one to annular one in vertical flows are described. Problems of phase transitions and equilibrium are discussed. Flow regimes in tubes where evaporating liquid is running, are described [ru

  3. Energy transition or incremental change? Green policy agendas and the adaptability of the urban energy regime in Los Angeles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monstadt, Jochen; Wolff, Annika

    2015-01-01

    Drawing on recent research in urban policy studies and social studies of technology, this paper examines the capability of urban energy regimes in adapting to environmental policy pressures. Focusing on the case of the City of Los Angeles, we critically analyze the transformative capacity of the city's recent energy and climate policies and the innovation patterns of its urban infrastructure regime. This case study suggests that despite considerable success in switching from coal to renewable energies, the patterns of sociotechnical change in Los Angeles still tend to supplement and sustain the existing regime. Sociotechnical change in Los Angeles tends to unfold incrementally through adjustments within the established patterns of the existing regime. - Highlights: • Theory-guided case study on the transition of the urban energy regime in Los Angeles. • Evaluation of the transformative capacity of environmental policies. • Assessment of the adaptability and innovation patterns of urban infrastructure regimes. • The policy changes have sustained the existing regime and unfold incrementally

  4. The Bali Firewall and Member States’ Future Obligations within the Climate Change Regime

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    Christopher Smith

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available At the 13th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, held in Bali in 2007, the COP decided to launch a process to reach an agreed outcome at its 15th session held in Copenhagen in 2009. This decision, known as the Bali Action Plan, contains two subparagraphs that set out broadly the parameters within which future possible legal obligations pertaining to developed and developing nations regarding the mitigation of climate change are to be addressed as part of this process as per the decision. The purpose of addressing these obligations is to enable the implementation of the Convention, so the subparagraphs should have a basis in the Convention. One subparagraph deals with future possible legal obligations pertaining to developed country Parties and the other deals with those pertaining to developing country Parties. The content of each subparagraph differs and therefore a fundamental difference in the future possible legal obligations pertaining to developed and developing country Parties is pre-defined within the Bali Action Plan. This difference, as it is perceived by most developing country Parties, has become known colloquially as the Bali firewall. This article will set out the content of the pre-defined sets of parameters and investigate the basis for this content, and difference in content in relation to the other, in the provisions and principles set out in the Convention. It will then conclude on the validity of the Bali firewall in terms of the content of the Convention. Additionally it will analyse whether the ‘outcome’ of the 15th Conference of the Parties falls in line with the future legal obligations of member states within the climate regime as perceived by most developing country Parties in terms of the Bali firewall. Lastly it will analyse member states’ future legal obligations within the climate change regime in the context of the overall objective of the Convention and the

  5. Transitions in Arctic ecosystems: Ecological implications of a changing hydrological regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrona, Frederick J.; Johansson, Margareta; Culp, Joseph M.; Jenkins, Alan; Mârd, Johanna; Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Prowse, Terry D.; Vincent, Warwick F.; Wookey, Philip A.

    2016-03-01

    Numerous international scientific assessments and related articles have, during the last decade, described the observed and potential impacts of climate change as well as other related environmental stressors on Arctic ecosystems. There is increasing recognition that observed and projected changes in freshwater sources, fluxes, and storage will have profound implications for the physical, biogeochemical, biological, and ecological processes and properties of Arctic terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. However, a significant level of uncertainty remains in relation to forecasting the impacts of an intensified hydrological regime and related cryospheric change on ecosystem structure and function. As the terrestrial and freshwater ecology component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review these uncertainties and recommend enhanced coordinated circumpolar research and monitoring efforts to improve quantification and prediction of how an altered hydrological regime influences local, regional, and circumpolar-level responses in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Specifically, we evaluate (i) changes in ecosystem productivity; (ii) alterations in ecosystem-level biogeochemical cycling and chemical transport; (iii) altered landscapes, successional trajectories, and creation of new habitats; (iv) altered seasonality and phenological mismatches; and (v) gains or losses of species and associated trophic interactions. We emphasize the need for developing a process-based understanding of interecosystem interactions, along with improved predictive models. We recommend enhanced use of the catchment scale as an integrated unit of study, thereby more explicitly considering the physical, chemical, and ecological processes and fluxes across a full freshwater continuum in a geographic region and spatial range of hydroecological units (e.g., stream-pond-lake-river-near shore marine environments).

  6. Impacts of changing climate and snow cover on the flow regime of Jhelum River, Western Himalayas

    KAUST Repository

    Azmat, Muhammad

    2016-11-17

    This study examines the change in climate variables and snow cover dynamics and their impact on the hydrological regime of the Jhelum River basin in Western Himalayas. This study utilized daily streamflow records from Mangla dam, spanning a time period of 19 years (1995–2013), along with precipitation and temperature data over 52 years (1961–2013) from 12 different climate stations in the catchment. Additionally, moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing product MOD10A2 was utilized to analyze the change in snow cover dynamics during 2000–2013. The Pearson and Kendall rank correlation tests were used to scrutinize snow cover trends and correlation between temperature, precipitation, snow cover area (SCA) and streamflows records. Basin-wide trend analysis showed a slightly increasing tendency in temperature (τ = 0.098) and precipitation (τ = 0.094), during the years 1961–2013. The changes in streamflow indicated a positive (r > 0.12) relationship with respect to temperature but variable trends (r = −0.45–0.41) with respect to precipitation during both the winter and monsoon seasons. This indicates that temperature has a significant impact on the hydrological regime of the basin. MODIS data-based investigations suggested an expansion in SCA during 2000–2013. The changes in SCA of high-altitude zones (>2000 m a.s.l.) depicted a stronger positive correlation with climate variables and streamflow compared with those obtained for low-altitude regions (<2000 m a.s.l.). Overall, these results signify that high-altitude areas contribute to the streamflow largely in the form of snow- and glacier-melt during the early summer season. The streamflow is then further augmented by monsoon rainfall in the low-elevation regions during late summer.

  7. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  8. Modeling the evolution of riparian woodlands facing climate change in three European rivers with contrasting flow regimes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui P Rivaes

    Full Text Available Global circulation models forecasts indicate a future temperature and rainfall pattern modification worldwide. Such phenomena will become particularly evident in Europe where climate modifications could be more severe than the average change at the global level. As such, river flow regimes are expected to change, with resultant impacts on aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Riparian woodlands are among the most endangered ecosystems on earth and provide vital services to interconnected ecosystems and human societies. However, they have not been the object of many studies designed to spatially and temporally quantify how these ecosystems will react to climate change-induced flow regimes. Our goal was to assess the effects of climate-changed flow regimes on the existing riparian vegetation of three different European flow regimes. Cases studies were selected in the light of the most common watershed alimentation modes occurring across European regions, with the objective of appraising expected alterations in the riparian elements of fluvial systems due to climate change. Riparian vegetation modeling was performed using the CASiMiR-vegetation model, which bases its computation on the fluvial disturbance of the riparian patch mosaic. Modeling results show that riparian woodlands may undergo not only at least moderate changes for all flow regimes, but also some dramatic adjustments in specific areas of particular vegetation development stages. There are circumstances in which complete annihilation is feasible. Pluvial flow regimes, like the ones in southern European rivers, are those likely to experience more pronounced changes. Furthermore, regardless of the flow regime, younger and more water-dependent individuals are expected to be the most affected by climate change.

  9. The robustness of flood insurance regimes given changing risk resulting from climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Lamond

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The changing risk of flooding associated with climate change presents different challenges for the different flood insurance market models in use around the world, which vary in respect of consumer structure and their risk transfer mechanism. A review of international models has been undertaken against three broad criteria for the functioning and sustainability of a flood insurance scheme: knowing the nature of the insurable risk; the availability of an insurable population; and the presence of a solvent insurer. The solvency of insurance markets appears strong, partly because insurers and reinsurers can choose to exclude markets which would give rise to insolvency or can diversify their portfolios to include offsetting perils. Changing risk may threaten solvency if increasing risk is not recognised and adjusted for but insurability of flood risk may be facilitated by the use of market based and hybrid schemes offering greater diversification and more flexibility. While encouragement of mitigation is in theory boosted by risk based pricing, availability and affordability of insurance may be negatively impacted. This threatens the sustainability of an insurable population, therefore the inclusion of the state in partnership is beneficial in ensuring continuity of cover, addressing equity issues and incentivising mitigation.

  10. Are erosion regimes in SE Australian forests responding to anthropogenic climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyman, P.; Rutherfurd, I.; Lane, P. N. J.; Sheridan, G. J.

    2017-12-01

    In southeast Australia a series of exceptional climate events over the last decade have resulted in widespread debris flow activity across the region. The Millennium Drought (1996-2010), extreme fire-weather and record breaking rainfall in the La Nina year of 2011 have all contributed to an intensification of processes such as runoff production and mass failures that lead to debris flows. Debris flows in landmark locations such as the Grampians and Wilsons Promontory National Parks in 2011 were triggered by mass failure as a result of large volumes of intense summer rainfall. Runoff generated debris flows in burned areas have been occurring regularly and in large numbers along the East Coast Dividing Range from the Warrumbungle Mountains (New South Wales) in the north to Kinglake (Victoria) in the south. In northeast Victoria debris flows have been delivering sediment to the Ovens River following wildfires in 2003, 2007, 2009 and in 2013. The impact of these erosion events on infrastructure, water quality and aquatic ecosystems are considerable and important questions are emerging around i) how frequently events have occurred in the past, ii) the importance of fire as a geomorphic agent, and iii) the effects of climate change on erosion regimes. In this paper we investigate the conditions under which these debris flows occurred, and examine the underlying climatic events in context of historical records. Using data on rainfall distributions and fire history dating back to the 1960s we quantify the frequency with which catchments are primed for extreme erosion events. With these data we begin to speculate on whether or not current catchment conditions (e.g. soil depths, colluvial storage and accumulation rate) is consistent with the erosion regimes we observe. The broader aim of our research is to quantify debris flow thresholds using geophysical response models and use these models to determine the sensitivity of debris flow frequency to climatic forcing. In the

  11. The Rights and Role of Indigenous Women in The Climate Change Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tahnee Lisa Prior

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has direct and indirect consequences for individuals and their human rights (McInerney-Lankford et al. 2011. With the Arctic warming at twice the global rate, its inhabitants already experience many of these challenges. Marginalized groups, like women and indigenous peoples, are particularly vulnerable, with existing research providing evidence of ongoing and potential threats to their roles in community adaptation and in shaping change (Cameron 2011, Arctic Resilience Report 2016. While women’s rights are formally codified as human rights under the Convention on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW, and indigenous peoples’ human rights are codified and recognized in the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP, indigenous women’s rights are often neglected at both the international and local level. In this article, we apply an intersectional lens to demonstrate that indigenous and non-indigenous women are agents of change. In doing so, we examine how a human rights based approach might ensure indigenous women’s participatory role and legal status in the international climate change regime, as well as its related programs.

  12. Alterations in 'water yield' associated with land use changes under different precipitation regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohatyn, Shani; Ramati, Efrat; Tatarinov, Fyodor; Rotenberg, Eyal; Tas, Eran; Yakir, Dan

    2016-04-01

    Changes in rainfall regimes and land cover results in complex alterations in plant water use and in ecosystem water balance, which are not well quantified. This results in poor estimates of the 'water yield' (WY; the difference between precipitation, P, input and evapotranspiration, ET, losses), which provides the water available for runoff and re-charge, and ultimately also for human consumption. The objective of this study was to examine the interactions between the effects of land use change (from sparse shrubland to pine forest) on ecosystem WY, and changes in the precipitation regime (from humid Mediterranean to semi-arid conditions). We hypothesized that the forestation increased ET and reduced WY, but this impact diminishes with decreasing precipitation. We used a new approach centered on a custom-built mobile laboratory of eddy co-variance measurements deployed on a campaign basis (about two weeks per site repeated along the seasonal cycle), that allowed us to measure ecosystem-scale ET together with carbon and energy fluxes and meteorological parameters. Measurements were carried out between the years of 2012-2015 in three paired sites of Pinus halepensis forests and adjacent non-forest ecosystems along the rainfall gradient in Israel, from 755 to 290 mm in annual precipitation. Annual ET was estimated from the campaigns results based on multiple regression analyses with meteorological parameters (relative humidity, RH, temperature, T, and global radiation, Rg) from local meteorological stations that provided continuous data records. The results indicated that decrease in annual precipitation by a factor of ~2.5, resulted in decrease in ET by a factor of 2.4 from 685 mm, with WY=210 mm, in the humid forest, to 290 mm, with WY= 0 mm, in the dry forest. In the non-forest ecosystems ET showed relatively small decrease (by a factor of 1.3) from 285 mm, with WY=460 mm, to 220 mm, with WY=95 mm. The differences 'Forest-shrubland' in ET decreased from 400 mm to

  13. Hydrologic regime alteration of a Mediterranean catchment under climate change projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellami, Haykel; Benabdallah, Sihem; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Herrmann, Frank; Vanclooster, Marnik

    2014-05-01

    Most of the climate models projections for the Mediterranean basin have showed that the region will likely to experience a general tendency towards drier climate conditions with decreases in total precipitation, increases in temperature, alterations in the rainfall extreme events and droughts frequency (IPCC, 2007; Giorgi and Lionello, 2008; López-Moreno et al., 2011). The region is already suffering from water resources scarcity and vulnerability which are expected to amplify in the next century (Ludwig et al., 2011; Schneider et al., 2013). Therefore, assessing the impact of climate change on the hydrologic regime of Mediterranean catchments is with a major concern not only to scientist but also to water resources policy makers and general public. However, most of the climate change impact studies focus on the flow regime on global or regional scale rather than on the catchment scale which is more useful and more appropriate to guide practical mitigation and adaptation policy. This is because hydro-climate modeling at the local scale is confronted to the variability in climate, topography, geology, lack of observations and anthropogenic activities within the catchment. Furthermore, it is well recognized that hydrological and climate models forecasts are always affected with uncertainty making the assessment of climate change impact on Mediterranean catchment hydrology more challenging. This work aims to assess the impact of climate change on a Mediterranean catchment located in North Africa (the Chiba catchment in northeast Tunisia) through a conjunctive use of physically based hydrological model (SWAT) driven with four climate models*. Quantification of the impact of climate change has been conducted by means of the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (Richter et al., 1996) which are also ecologically meaningful. By comparing changes in these indicators in the reference period (1971-2000) to the projected ones in the future (2041-2070), it was possible to draw

  14. Land cover change interacts with drought severity to change fire regimes in Western Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez-Vélez, Víctor H; Uriarte, María; DeFries, Ruth; Pinedo-Vásquez, Miguel; Fernandes, Katia; Ceccato, Pietro; Baethgen, Walter; Padoch, Christine

    Fire is becoming a pervasive driver of environmental change in Amazonia and is expected to intensify, given projected reductions in precipitation and forest cover. Understanding of the influence of post-deforestation land cover change on fires in Amazonia is limited, even though fires in cleared lands constitute a threat for ecosystems, agriculture, and human health. We used MODIS satellite data to map burned areas annually between 2001 and 2010. We then combined these maps with land cover and climate information to understand the influence of land cover change in cleared lands and dry-season severity on fire occurrence and spread in a focus area in the Peruvian Amazon. Fire occurrence, quantified as the probability of burning of individual 232-m spatial resolution MODIS pixels, was modeled as a function of the area of land cover types within each pixel, drought severity, and distance to roads. Fire spread, quantified as the number of pixels burned in 3 × 3 pixel windows around each focal burned pixel, was modeled as a function of land cover configuration and area, dry-season severity, and distance to roads. We found that vegetation regrowth and oil palm expansion are significantly correlated with fire occurrence, but that the magnitude and sign of the correlation depend on drought severity, successional stage of regrowing vegetation, and oil palm age. Burning probability increased with the area of nondegraded pastures, fallow, and young oil palm and decreased with larger extents of degraded pastures, secondary forests, and adult oil palm plantations. Drought severity had the strongest influence on fire occurrence, overriding the effectiveness of secondary forests, but not of adult plantations, to reduce fire occurrence in severely dry years. Overall, irregular and scattered land cover patches reduced fire spread but irregular and dispersed fallows and secondary forests increased fire spread during dry years. Results underscore the importance of land cover

  15. The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

    2018-01-01

    Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth’s climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased

  16. The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

    2017-11-01

    Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased

  17. Changing Climate Drives Lagging and Accelerating Glacier Responses and Accelerating Adjustments of the Hazard Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kargel, Jeffrey

    2013-04-01

    advances) of glaciers due to historic and future anthropogenic and longer term climate change relate to a changing glacier hazard regime. Climate change is connected to changes in the geographic distribution and magnitudes of potentially hazardous glacier lakes, large rock and ice avalanches, ice-dammed rivers, and surges. I shall consider these changes in hazard environment in relation to response-time theory and dynamical divergences from idealized response-time theory. Case histories of certain hazard-prone regions, including developments in fast-response-type glaciers and slow-response glaciers and ice sheets will also be discussed. In short, there will be a strong tendency of the hazard regimes of glacierized regions to shift far more rapidly in the 21st century than they did in the 20th century. The magnitude of the shifts will be more dramatic than any simple linear scaling to climate warming would suggest; this is largely because, due to lagging responses, glaciers are still trying to catch up to a new equilibrium for 20th century climate, while climate change remains a moving target that will drive accelerating glacier responses (including responses in hazard environments) in most glacierized regions.

  18. Regime change and public policy: the political and macro-economic decision-making of Spanish energy policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lancaster, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This dissertation examines the effects of peaceful regime change on public policy-making. Spain's National Energy Plan (PEN) in particular, and energy planning in general, constitute a critical policy issue which permits direct comparison of decision-making across regime change from the Franco dictatorship to the present constitutional monarchy. The research reveals that the nature of the political coalition underlying Spain's regime change accounts of the lack of significant change in policy-making processes in this particular policy issue. This thesis develops a two-pronged argument to explain the absence of significant policy change. The first is based on a general view of the Franco regime's and the democratic system's coalitional support. In each, three major political forces are seen as central: the military, business, and labor. One of these, business, is seen as being pivotal in the regime transition. Business' pivotal position, it is argued, has permitted a defence of a national energy policy beneficial to its economic interests in energy. The argument's second part focuses on the binding constraint on policy outcomes imposed by private interests in state planning and the generally non-binding nature of oppositional party policy proposals and public opinion.

  19. Effects of climate change on fire and spruce budworm disturbance regimes and consequences on forest biomass production in eastern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauthier, S.

    2004-01-01

    The dynamics of spruce budworm (SBW) outbreaks and wildfires are expected to change as climatic change progresses. The effects of an altered, combined interaction between SBW and fire may be of greater importance than the individual effect of either on forest biomass production. The objectives of this study are to define current fire and SBW regimes in eastern Canada and relate the characteristics of each regime based upon climate model outputs for 2050 and 2100. The study also attempts to evaluate the impact of predicted changes in SBW and fire disturbance regimes on forest dynamics. The methodology used in the study included data from the Canadian Large Fire Database and historical records of SBW outbreaks. Spatial and environmental variables were presented along with climate models. The analysis was conducted using constrained ordination techniques, and canonical correspondence and redundancy analysis. Projected disturbance regimes were presented for both fire and SBW. The effects of the regimes on biomass productivity were also examined, using a Landscape Disturbance Simulator (LAD). It was concluded that this model will help evaluate the consequences of changes imposed by climatic change on both disturbances individually, as well as their interaction. 10 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

  20. Land Change Regimes and the Evolution of the Maize-Cattle Complex in Neoliberal Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yankuic Galvan-Miyoshi

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available How globalization impacts native land cover has become an important issue in studies addressing environmental change, which draw explicit attention to processes of cause and effect operating over significant distances. The literature shows that globalization constitutes an important underlying driver of both deforestation and forest transition via demographic and economic phenomena such as migration and remittance flows. Yet, little is known about how global forces mold the spatial structure of agro-commodity production and how this impacts the balance of forces affecting land change at the meso-scale, within the boundaries of the nation-state. The research presented here fills this gap by examining production networks for Mexico, a large OECD country with complex land change dynamics that has recently experienced a dramatic opening to the world economy. Specifically, we consider how maize and beef commodity chains evolved over the past few decades into a highly interdependent maize-cattle complex, and suggest linkages to patterns of land change at the national scale. Using land cover maps for 1993, 2002, and 2012, at the national scale, governmental statistics and datasets, interviews with key informants, and field observations the article provides an analysis of the impact of neoliberal reforms on the changing geography of beef and maize production, and argues that this process underlies the evolution of Mexico’s land change regime, both before and after the NAFTA reforms. As such, the article presents an account, and a case for further research on the topic of how teleconnections are constituted by spatially-extensive food production networks.

  1. Modelling electricity demand in Ghana revisited: The role of policy regime changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adom, Philip Kofi; Bekoe, William

    2013-01-01

    As policy regime changes, demand elasticities are unlikely to be constant since individuals change how they form their expectations, and this will change the estimated decision rules. In this paper, the time-varying nature of electricity demand elasticities prior to and post the economic reform period in Ghana is analysed using the FM-OLS. Three different sample periods -pre-reform, post-reform, and full-period- was used in the analysis. The result from the full-sample period revealed that in the long-run electricity demand is significantly affected by industry efficiency, industry value added, and real per capita GDP. Urbanization rate, however, has no significant effect. The pre-reform estimate showed lower income, output, and urbanization elasticities but higher industry energy efficiency elasticity relative to the post-reform period. This suggests that technological change in the pre-reform period has been energy saving whilst technological change in the post reform period has been energy consuming. The result further showed evidence of changing structure of the economy from the more energy intensive sector to the less energy intensive sector after the reform. Government should renew her effort in promoting energy saving technologies in the industrial sector and adjust the industrial structure to encourage the expansion of low energy intensive industries or high technology efficient industries. - Highlights: • The study investigates time-varying nature of demand elasticities prior to 1983 and after 1983. • Result shows differences in demand elasticities prior to and post the reform. • Pre-reform period is characterised with energy saving technology. • Post-reform period is characterised with energy consuming technology. • The post-reform result reveals evidence of gradual structural shift in the economy

  2. Bridging interest, classification and technology gaps in the climate change regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, J.; Van der Werff, P.; Gagnon-Lebrun, F.; Van Dijk, I.; Verspeek, F.; Arkesteijn, E.; Van der Meer, J.

    2002-01-01

    The climate change regime is affected by a major credibility gap; there is a gap between what countries have been stating that they are willing to do and what they actually do. This is visible not just in the inability of the developed countries to stabilise their emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000 as provided for in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), but by the general reluctance of all countries to ratify the Kyoto Protocol to the Convention (KPFCCC). This research postulates that this credibility gap is affected further by three other types of gaps: 1) the interest gap; 2) the classification gap; and 3) the technology gap. The purpose of this research is thus to identify ways and means to promote industrial transformation in developing countries as a method to address the climate change problem. The title of this project is: Bridging Gaps - Enhancing Domestic and International Technological Collaboration to Enable the Adoption of Climate Relevant Technologies and Practices (CT and Ps) and thereby Foster Participation and Implementation of the Climate Convention (FCCC) by Developing Countries (DCs). In order to enhance technology co-operation, we believe that graduation profiles are needed at the international level and stakeholder involvement at both the national and international levels. refs

  3. Climate change impact assessment on flow regime by incorporating spatial correlation and scenario uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

    2017-07-01

    Flooding risk is increasing in many parts of the world and may worsen under climate change conditions. The accuracy of predicting flooding risk relies on reasonable projection of meteorological data (especially rainfall) at the local scale. The current statistical downscaling approaches face the difficulty of projecting multi-site climate information for future conditions while conserving spatial information. This study presents a combined Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) stochastic weather generator and multi-site rainfall simulator RainSim (CLWRS) approach to investigate flow regimes under future conditions in the Kootenay Watershed, Canada. To understand the uncertainty effect stemming from different scenarios, the climate output is fed into a hydrologic model. The results showed different variation trends of annual peak flows (in 2080-2099) based on different climate change scenarios and demonstrated that the hydrological impact would be driven by the interaction between snowmelt and peak flows. The proposed CLWRS approach is useful where there is a need for projection of potential climate change scenarios.

  4. Simulating fire regimes in the Amazon in response to climate change and deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestrini, Rafaella Almeida; Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira; Nepstad, Daniel; Coe, Michael; Rodrigues, Hermann; Assunção, Renato

    2011-07-01

    Fires in tropical forests release globally significant amounts of carbon to the atmosphere and may increase in importance as a result of climate change. Despite the striking impacts of fire on tropical ecosystems, the paucity of robust spatial models of forest fire still hampers our ability to simulate tropical forest fire regimes today and in the future. Here we present a probabilistic model of human-induced fire occurrence for the Amazon that integrates the effects of a series of anthropogenic factors with climatic conditions described by vapor pressure deficit. The model was calibrated using NOAA-12 night satellite hot pixels for 2003 and validated for the years 2002, 2004, and 2005. Assessment of the fire risk map yielded fitness values > 85% for all months from 2002 to 2005. Simulated fires exhibited high overlap with NOAA-12 hot pixels regarding both spatial and temporal distributions, showing a spatial fit of 50% within a radius of 11 km and a maximum yearly frequency deviation of 15%. We applied this model to simulate fire regimes in the Amazon until 2050 using IPCC's A2 scenario climate data from the Hadley Centre model and a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of deforestation and road expansion from SimAmazonia. Results show that the combination of these scenarios may double forest fire occurrence outside protected areas (PAs) in years of extreme drought, expanding the risk of fire even to the northwestern Amazon by midcentury. In particular, forest fires may increase substantially across southern and southwestern Amazon, especially along the highways slated for paving and in agricultural zones. Committed emissions from Amazon forest fires and deforestation under a scenario of global warming and uncurbed deforestation may amount to 21 +/- 4 Pg of carbon by 2050. BAU deforestation may increase fires occurrence outside PAs by 19% over the next four decades, while climate change alone may account for a 12% increase. In turn, the combination of climate change

  5. WHY THE SUDDEN CHANGE OF THE POLITICAL REGIME IS DETERMINING RISK IN ECONOMY AND SOCIETY?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Lucian MEHEDINTI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this article the authors aim to gather an in-depth understanding of the evolution of manking throughout the history and its political regimes, and in the same time are analizing and determining the components of the social function that exercised a great influence on the stability and dynamics of the production and consumption, pointing out that any social organization that wants to remain rational should have as a primary objective the happiness of the people, that so called,“general happiness”, that could only be achieved through education, culture, raising people's moral and intellectual knowledge. Since any political system does not seek the general good, but the one of some persons or a specific group of people, there is only very little communion between them and the people or is entirely missing and for these reasons their reign won’t be long, because the people are always wanting a political change. This "social problem" occurred because of some significant social movements, socialist doctrines whose effects still persist in present times. The efforts of the profound thinkers and mankind throughout the history, with all the positive developments did not materialize in achieving a society in which wealth is equitably distributed, where the contributions of the people in getting them is equally shared that could satisfy the requirements and the needs of the majority members of the society. In all the transformations and society changes or the political regime of the state, the human being represented the base, with its unlimited evolution and thinking, and all of these were achieved in time and were given by a certain social environment. The human being can not be separated from its social environment. He is born to live in the society, but the freedom can not be unlimited of course. The history has shown that all the hasty attempts suffered the same fate and the only sustainable progress made by the people were those who came out

  6. Considering WTO law in the design of climate change regimes beyond Kyoto

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaines, Sanford E.

    2009-11-01

    This article describes the most important provisions of World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements that should be considered in designing laws and regulations under likely post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes. The Kyoto Protocol and the expected post-Kyoto international climate agreement depend on national measures to implement market-based mitigation measures. This market strategy promotes international exchanges of goods, investments, and services such as cross-border trading of credits for emissions reductions and transnational financing for projects that avoid emissions through the Clean Development Mechanism. Moreover, the United States and other countries, concerned over "leakage" of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through relocation of industry to other countries coupled with political worry over manufacturing competitiveness, have proposed national climate legislation containing border adjustments on imported goods or implicit subsidies for national producers, raising additional WTO considerations. The article assesses the likely effectiveness of such trade-related measures in achieving climate change mitigation goals and the potential trade policy infringements and trade distortions that they might bring about. Alternative strategies for achieving GHG mitigation goals in closer conformity with WTO law and policy will be suggested.

  7. Considering WTO law in the design of climate change regimes beyond Kyoto

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaines, Sanford E

    2009-01-01

    This article describes the most important provisions of World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements that should be considered in designing laws and regulations under likely post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes. The Kyoto Protocol and the expected post-Kyoto international climate agreement depend on national measures to implement market-based mitigation measures. This market strategy promotes international exchanges of goods, investments, and services such as cross-border trading of credits for emissions reductions and transnational financing for projects that avoid emissions through the Clean Development Mechanism. Moreover, the United States and other countries, concerned over 'leakage' of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through relocation of industry to other countries coupled with political worry over manufacturing competitiveness, have proposed national climate legislation containing border adjustments on imported goods or implicit subsidies for national producers, raising additional WTO considerations. The article assesses the likely effectiveness of such trade-related measures in achieving climate change mitigation goals and the potential trade policy infringements and trade distortions that they might bring about. Alternative strategies for achieving GHG mitigation goals in closer conformity with WTO law and policy will be suggested.

  8. Tropical deforestation in the context of the post-2012 Climate Change Regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morgan, J.L. [WWF International, Global Climate Change Program, Washington DC (United States); Maretti, C. [WWF Brazil, Brasilia (Brazil); Volpi, G. [WWF Latin American Climate Change Program, Brasilia (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    There is overwhelming evidence and consensus that climate change is real and happening now. In fact, the impacts of climate change are occurring faster than what many scientists first predicted. Whether assessing impacts to coral reefs, the arctic, sub-Saharan Africa or the tropical rainforests, change is happening and time is short to avoid the most devastating impacts. In order to prevent dangerous climate change, governments, WWF and other NGOs have stated that global average temperature must stay well below a 2 degrees C rise in comparison to pre-industrial temperature. In order to ensure that this dangerous threshold is not crossed, global greenhouse gas emissions will have to be rapidly and deeply reduced over the next one to two decades. The sources of emissions are clear. An estimated 75 to 80% of global emissions stem from industrial sources, specifically, the burning of fossil fuels. The remaining 20 to 25% can be sourced to deforestation emissions, predominantly in the tropics. Both, the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, must be urgently and effectively addressed in order to save the world's biodiversity and people from catastrophic climate change. At this time, a new opportunity exists to address the issue of deforestation within the climate change regime. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force in February 2005, thus setting the stage for the first Meeting of the Protocol Parties in late 2005 in Montreal, Canada. The Protocol requires that already in 2005, Parties begin assessing and negotiating changes to the Protocol, as noted in Articles 3.9 and 9.2. Due to the urgency of emissions reductions, it is clear that each country will have to commit to more action than in the past, whether it be an Annex I developed country Party or a non-Annex I developing country Party. The Climate Action Network (CAN), a network of over three hundred NGOs worldwide, has put forth a concrete proposal on how such commitments could (a) evolve over time and (b

  9. Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2015-05-01

    The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

  10. Thermal Regime of A Deep Temperate Lake and Its Response to Climate Change: Lake Kuttara, Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuhisa A. Chikita

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A deep temperate lake, Lake Kuttara, Hokkaido, Japan (148 m deep at maximum was completely ice-covered every winter in the 20th century. However, ice-free conditions of the lake over winter occurred three times in the 21st century, which is probably due to global warming. In order to understand how thermal regime of the lake responds to climate change, a change in lake mean water temperature from the heat storage change was calculated by integrating observed water temperature over water depths and by numerical calculation of heat budget components based on hydrometeorological data. As a result, a temporal variation of lake mean water temperature from the heat budget calculation was very reasonable to that from the observed water temperature (determination coefficient R2 = 0.969. The lowest lake mean temperature for non-freeze was then evaluated at −1.87 °C, referring to the zero level at 6.80 °C. The 1978–2017 data at a meteorological station near Kuttara indicated that there are significant (less than 5% level long-term trends for air temperature (+0.024 °C/year and wind speed (−0.010 m/s/year. In order to evaluate the effects of climate change on freeze-up patterns, a sensitivity analysis was carried out for the calculated lake mean water temperature. It is noted that, after two decades, the lake could be ice-free once per every two years.

  11. Changing Feeding Regimes To Demonstrate Flexible Biogas Production: Effects on Process Performance, Microbial Community Structure, and Methanogenesis Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulat, Daniel Girma; Jacobi, H. Fabian; Feilberg, Anders; Adamsen, Anders Peter S.; Richnow, Hans-Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Flexible biogas production that adapts biogas output to energy demand can be regulated by changing feeding regimes. In this study, the effect of changes in feeding intervals on process performance, microbial community structure, and the methanogenesis pathway was investigated. Three different feeding regimes (once daily, every second day, and every 2 h) at the same organic loading rate were studied in continuously stirred tank reactors treating distiller's dried grains with solubles. A larger amount of biogas was produced after feeding in the reactors fed less frequently (once per day and every second day), whereas the amount remained constant in the reactor fed more frequently (every 2 h), indicating the suitability of the former for the flexible production of biogas. Compared to the conventional more frequent feeding regimes, a methane yield that was up to 14% higher and an improved stability of the process against organic overloading were achieved by employing less frequent feeding regimes. The community structures of bacteria and methanogenic archaea were monitored by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) analysis of 16S rRNA and mcrA genes, respectively. The results showed that the composition of the bacterial community varied under the different feeding regimes, and the observed T-RFLP patterns were best explained by the differences in the total ammonia nitrogen concentrations, H2 levels, and pH values. However, the methanogenic community remained stable under all feeding regimes, with the dominance of the Methanosarcina genus followed by that of the Methanobacterium genus. Stable isotope analysis showed that the average amount of methane produced during each feeding event by acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis was not influenced by the three different feeding regimes. PMID:26497462

  12. Changing Feeding Regimes To Demonstrate Flexible Biogas Production: Effects on Process Performance, Microbial Community Structure, and Methanogenesis Pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulat, Daniel Girma; Jacobi, H Fabian; Feilberg, Anders; Adamsen, Anders Peter S; Richnow, Hans-Hermann; Nikolausz, Marcell

    2016-01-15

    Flexible biogas production that adapts biogas output to energy demand can be regulated by changing feeding regimes. In this study, the effect of changes in feeding intervals on process performance, microbial community structure, and the methanogenesis pathway was investigated. Three different feeding regimes (once daily, every second day, and every 2 h) at the same organic loading rate were studied in continuously stirred tank reactors treating distiller's dried grains with solubles. A larger amount of biogas was produced after feeding in the reactors fed less frequently (once per day and every second day), whereas the amount remained constant in the reactor fed more frequently (every 2 h), indicating the suitability of the former for the flexible production of biogas. Compared to the conventional more frequent feeding regimes, a methane yield that was up to 14% higher and an improved stability of the process against organic overloading were achieved by employing less frequent feeding regimes. The community structures of bacteria and methanogenic archaea were monitored by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) analysis of 16S rRNA and mcrA genes, respectively. The results showed that the composition of the bacterial community varied under the different feeding regimes, and the observed T-RFLP patterns were best explained by the differences in the total ammonia nitrogen concentrations, H2 levels, and pH values. However, the methanogenic community remained stable under all feeding regimes, with the dominance of the Methanosarcina genus followed by that of the Methanobacterium genus. Stable isotope analysis showed that the average amount of methane produced during each feeding event by acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis was not influenced by the three different feeding regimes. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  13. Channel evolution under changing hydrological regimes in anabranching reaches downstream of the Three Gorges Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jianqiao; Zhang, Wei; Yuan, Jing; Fan, Yongyang

    2018-03-01

    Elucidating the influence of dams on fluvial processes can benefit river protection and basin management. Based on hydrological and topographical data, we analyzed channel evolution in anabranching reaches under changing hydrological regimes influenced by the Three Gorges Dam. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) the channels of specific anabranching reaches were defined as flood trend channels or low-flow trend channels according to the distribution of their flow characteristics. The anabranching reaches were classified as T1 or T2. The former is characterized by the correspondence between the flood trend and branch channels, and the latter is characterized by the correspondence between the flood trend and main channels; 2) on the basis of the new classification, the discrepant patterns of channel evolution seen in anabranching reaches were unified into a pattern that showed flood trend channels shrinking and low-flow trend channels expanding; 3) flood abatement and the increased duration of moderate flow discharges are the main factors that affect channel adjustments in anabranching reaches after dam construction; and 4) in the next few decades, the pattern of channel evolution will remain the same as that of the Three Gorges Dam operation. That is, the morphology will fully adapt to a flow with a low coefficient of variation. Our results are of interest in the management of the Yangtze River and other rivers influenced by dams.

  14. Projected Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamaru, Hideki; Keesstra, Saskia; Maroulis, Jerry; David, Carlos Primo C.; Ritsema, Coen J.

    2016-01-01

    The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces throughout the Philippines were assessed. Calibrated using existing historical interpolated climate data, the STREAM model was used to assess future river flows derived from three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3 and MPEH5) under two plausible scenarios (A1B and A2) and then compared with baseline scenarios (20th century). Results predict a general increase in water availability for most parts of the country. For the A1B scenario, CNCM3 and MPEH5 models predict an overall increase in river flows and river flow variability for most basins, with higher flow magnitudes and flow variability, while an increase in peak flow return periods is predicted for the middle and southern parts of the country during the wet season. However, in the north, the prognosis is for an increase in peak flow return periods for both wet and dry seasons. These findings suggest a general increase in water availability for agriculture, however, there is also the increased threat of flooding and enhanced soil erosion throughout the country. PMID:27749908

  15. 2050 Scenarios for Long-Haul Tourism in the Evolving Global Climate Change Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jako Volschenk

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Tourism and its “midwife”, aviation, are transnational sectors exposed to global uncertainties. This scenario-building exercise considers a specific subset of these uncertainties, namely the impact of the evolving global climate change regime on long-haul tourism (LHT, with a 2050 horizon. The basic problematique is that unconstrained growth in aviation emissions will not be compatible with 2050 climate stabilisation goals, and that the stringency and timing of public policy interventions could have far-reaching impacts — either on the market for future growth of LHT, or the natural ecosystem on which tourism depends. Following an intuitive-logic approach to scenario-building, three meta-level scenarios that can be regarded as “possible” futures for the evolution of LHT are described. Two of these, i.e., the “grim reaper” and the “fallen angel” scenarios, are undesirable. The “green lantern” scenario represents the desired future. Long-haul tourist destinations should heed the early warning signals identified in the scenario narratives, and contribute towards realising the desired future. They should further guard against being passive victims if the feared scenarios materialise, by adapting, repositioning early upon reading the signposts, hedging against risks, and seizing new opportunities.

  16. Strategic maneuvering in supporting the feasibility of political change: A pragma-dialectical analysis of Egyptian anti-regime columns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Omar, A.A.A.M.H.

    2016-01-01

    Paving the way to the revolutionary uprising of 2011, Egyptian anti-regime columnists aimed at convincing their audiences that a political change towards democracy would not only be desirable but also feasible. The extended pragma-dialectical argumentation theory is used as a theoretical and

  17. Changes of forest cover and disturbance regimes in the mountain forests of the Alps☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebi, P.; Seidl, R.; Motta, R.; Fuhr, M.; Firm, D.; Krumm, F.; Conedera, M.; Ginzler, C.; Wohlgemuth, T.; Kulakowski, D.

    2017-01-01

    Natural disturbances, such as avalanches, snow breakage, insect outbreaks, windthrow or fires shape mountain forests globally. However, in many regions over the past centuries human activities have strongly influenced forest dynamics, especially following natural disturbances, thus limiting our understanding of natural ecological processes, particularly in densely-settled regions. In this contribution we briefly review the current understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and disturbance regimes in the mountain forests across the European Alps over the past millennia. We also quantify changes in forest cover across the entire Alps based on inventory data over the past century. Finally, using the Swiss Alps as an example, we analyze in-depth changes in forest cover and forest structure and their effect on patterns of fire and wind disturbances, based on digital historic maps from 1880, modern forest cover maps, inventory data on current forest structure, topographical data, and spatially explicit data on disturbances. This multifaceted approach presents a long-term and detailed picture of the dynamics of mountain forest ecosystems in the Alps. During pre-industrial times, natural disturbances were reduced by fire suppression and land-use, which included extraction of large amounts of biomass that decreased total forest cover. More recently, forest cover has increased again across the entire Alps (on average +4% per decade over the past 25–115 years). Live tree volume (+10% per decade) and dead tree volume (mean +59% per decade) have increased over the last 15–40 years in all regions for which data were available. In the Swiss Alps secondary forests that established after 1880 constitute approximately 43% of the forest cover. Compared to forests established previously, post-1880 forests are situated primarily on steep slopes (>30°), have lower biomass, a more aggregated forest structure (primarily stem-exclusion stage), and have been more

  18. Assessing the effect of soil use changes on soil moisture regimes in mountain regions. (Catalan Pre-Pyrenees NE Spain)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loaiza Usuga, Juan Carlos; Jarauta Bragulat, Eusebio; Porta Casanellas, Jaume; Poch Claret, Rosa Maria

    2010-01-01

    Soil moisture regimes under different land uses were observed and modeled in a representative forest basin in the Catalonian Pre-Pyrenees, more specifically in the Ribera Salada catchment (222.5 km2). The vegetation cover in the catchment consists of pasture, tillage and forest. A number of representative plots for each of these land cover types were intensely monitored during the study period. The annual precipitation fluctuates between 516 and 753 mm, while the soil moisture content oscillates between 14 and 26% in the middle and low lying areas of the basin, and between 21 and 48% in shady zones near the river bed, and in the higher parts of the basin. Soil moisture and rainfall are controlled firstly by altitude, with the existence of two climatic types in the basin (sub-Mediterranean and sub-alpine), and further, by land use. Two models were applied to the estimated water moisture regimes: the Jarauta Simulation Newhall model (JSM) and the Newhall simulation model (NSM) were found to be able to predict the soil moisture regimes in the basin in the different combinations of local abiotic and biotic factors. The JSM results are more precise than the results obtained using another frequently used method, more specifically the Newhall Simulation Model (NSM), which has been developed to simulate soil moisture regimes. NSM was found to overestimate wet soil moisture regimes. The results show the importance of the moisture control section size and Available Water Capacity (AWC) of the profile, in the moisture section control state and variability. The mountain soils are dominated by rustic and occasionally xeric regimes. Land use changes leading to an increase in forest areas would imply drier soil conditions and therefore drier soil water regimes. These effects are most evident in degraded shallow and stony soils with low AWC.

  19. Identification of two distinct fire regimes in Southern California: implications for economic impact and future change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Yufang; Goulden, Michael L.; Faivre, Nicolas; Veraverbeke, Sander; Sun, Fengpeng; Hall, Alex; Hand, Michael S.; Hook, Simon; Randerson, James T.

    2015-09-01

    The area burned by Southern California wildfires has increased in recent decades, with implications for human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem management. Meteorology and fuel structure are universally recognized controllers of wildfire, but their relative importance, and hence the efficacy of abatement and suppression efforts, remains controversial. Southern California’s wildfires can be partitioned by meteorology: fires typically occur either during Santa Ana winds (SA fires) in October through April, or warm and dry periods in June through September (non-SA fires). Previous work has not quantitatively distinguished between these fire regimes when assessing economic impacts or climate change influence. Here we separate five decades of fire perimeters into those coinciding with and without SA winds. The two fire types contributed almost equally to burned area, yet SA fires were responsible for 80% of cumulative 1990-2009 economic losses (3.1 Billion). The damage disparity was driven by fire characteristics: SA fires spread three times faster, occurred closer to urban areas, and burned into areas with greater housing values. Non-SA fires were comparatively more sensitive to age-dependent fuels, often occurred in higher elevation forests, lasted for extended periods, and accounted for 70% of total suppression costs. An improved distinction of fire type has implications for future projections and management. The area burned in non-SA fires is projected to increase 77% (±43%) by the mid-21st century with warmer and drier summers, and the SA area burned is projected to increase 64% (±76%), underscoring the need to evaluate the allocation and effectiveness of suppression investments.

  20. Descriptors of natural thermal regimes in streams and their responsiveness to change in the Pacific Northwest of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy

    2013-01-01

    1. Temperature is a major driver of ecological processes in stream ecosystems, yet the dynamics of thermal regimes remain poorly described. Most work has focused on relatively simple descriptors that fail to capture the full range of conditions that characterise thermal regimes of streams across seasons or throughout the year. 2. To more completely describe thermal regimes, we developed several descriptors of magnitude, variability, frequency, duration and timing of thermal events throughout a year. We evaluated how these descriptors change over time using long-term (1979–2009), continuous temperature data from five relatively undisturbed cold-water streams in western Oregon, U.S.A. In addition to trends for each descriptor, we evaluated similarities among them, as well as patterns of spatial coherence, and temporal synchrony. 3. Using different groups of descriptors, we were able to more fully capture distinct aspects of the full range of variability in thermal regimes across space and time. A subset of descriptors showed both higher coherence and synchrony and, thus, an appropriate level of responsiveness to examine evidence of regional climatic influences on thermal regimes. Most notably, daily minimum values during winter–spring were the most responsive descriptors to potential climatic influences. 4. Overall, thermal regimes in streams we studied showed high frequency and low variability of cold temperatures during the cold-water period in winter and spring, and high frequency and high variability of warm temperatures during the warm-water period in summer and autumn. The cold and warm periods differed in the distribution of events with a higher frequency and longer duration of warm events in summer than cold events in winter. The cold period exhibited lower variability in the duration of events, but showed more variability in timing. 5. In conclusion, our results highlight the importance of a year-round perspective in identifying the most responsive

  1. Fire Regime and Ecosystem Effects of Climate-driven Changes in Rocky Mountains Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerling, A. L.; Das, T.; Lubetkin, K.; Romme, W.; Ryan, M. G.; Smithwick, E. A.; Turner, M.

    2009-12-01

    Western US Forest managers face more wildfires than ever before, and it is increasingly imperative to anticipate the consequences of this trend. Large fires in the northern Rocky Mountains have increased in association with warmer temperatures, earlier snowmelt, and longer fire seasons (1), and this trend is likely to continue with global warming (2). Increased wildfire occurrence is already a concern shared by managers from many federal land-management agencies (3). However, new analyses for the western US suggest that future climate could diverge even more rapidly from past climate than previously suggested. Current model projections suggest end-of-century hydroclimatic conditions like those of 1988 (the year of the well-known Yellowstone Fires) may represent close to the average year rather than an extreme year. The consequences of a shift of this magnitude for the fire regime, post-fire succession and carbon (C) balance of western forest ecosystems are well beyond what scientists have explored to date, and may fundamentally change the potential of western forests to sequester atmospheric C. We link hydroclimatic extremes (spring and summer temperature and cumulative water-year moisture deficit) to extreme fire years in northern Rockies forests, using large forest fire histories and 1/8-degree gridded historical hydrologic simulations (1950 - 2005) (4) forced with historical gridded temperature and precipitation (5). The frequency of extremes in hydroclimate associated with historic severe fire years in the northern Rocky Mountains is compared to those projected under a range of climate change projections, using global climate model runs for the A2 and B1 emissions pathways for three global climate models (NCAR PCM1, GFDL CM2.1, CNRM CM3). Coarse-scale climatic variables are downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid and used to force hydrologic simulations (6, 7). We will present preliminary results using these hydrologic simulations to model spatially explicit annual

  2. Climate change and fire regimes in the Sierra de Manantlan, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke A. Cassell; Ernesto Alvarado; Emily Heyerdahl; Diego Perez-Salicrup; Enrique Jardel-Pelaez

    2010-01-01

    Fire has been attributed as one of the most influential factors in vegetation community and succession in the Sierra de Manantlán Biosphere Reserve in Jalisco and Colima, México. A mosaic of low, mixed and high severity fire regimes characterizes the landscape with ecosystems ranging from mesophyllous mountain forest to higher elevation pine and oak forest. Research...

  3. Cold exposure and associated metabolic changes in adult tropical beetles exposed to fluctuating thermal regimes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lalouette, L.; Košťál, Vladimír; Colinet, H.; Gagneul, D.; Renault, D.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 274, č. 7, (2007), s. 1759-1767 ISSN 1742-464X Grant - others:Biodiversity Research Centre of the Université Catholique de Louvain(BE) BRC 111 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50070508 Keywords : amino acid * fluctuating thermal regime * insect Subject RIV: ED - Physiology Impact factor: 3.396, year: 2007

  4. River flow regime and snow cover of the Pamir Alay (Central Asia) in a changing climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chevallier, P.; Pouyaud, B.; Mojaisky, M.; Bolgov, M.; Olsson, O.; Bauer, M.; Froebrich, J.

    2014-01-01

    The Vakhsh and Pyandj rivers, main tributaries of the Amu Darya River in the mountainous region of the Pamir Alay, play an important role in the water resources of the Aral Sea basin (Central Asia). In this region, the glaciers and snow cover significantly influence the water cycle and flow regime,

  5. Dynamic Effect of a Change in the Exchange Rate System: From a Fixed Regime to a Basket-Peg or a Floating Regime

    OpenAIRE

    Yoshino, Naoyuki; Kaji, Sahoko; Asonuma, Tamon

    2015-01-01

    This paper theoretically evaluates the dynamic effects of a shift in an exchange rate system from a fixed regime to a basket peg, or to a floating regime, and obtains transition paths for the shift based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We apply quantitative analysis using data from the People's Republic of China and Thailand and find that a small open country would be better off shifting to a basket peg or to a floating regime than maintaining a doll...

  6. Some characteristics of wet and dry regimes in the contiguous United States: Implications for climate change detection efforts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz, H.F.

    1990-01-01

    The climatology of wet and dry regimes in five different regions of the contiguous US is examined using station records of daily precipitation for the period 1931-86. The regions were selected to be representative of different climatological synoptic regimes, and hence are associated with different large-scale atmospheric forcing patterns. The results show that the precipitation-producing processes operating during the wettest and driest years are substantially different, with wet years generally displaying large increases in the heavier precipitation categories compared to the dry years. These differences may be related to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the development of persistent oceanic anomalies associated with variations in air-sea exchange processes over the Pacific Ocean and, depending on the particular region of the country, in the Atlantic Ocean as well. It is shown that sequences of wet and dry years are rather common throughout the country. The 1930s and 50s saw prolonged periods of severe, and in some instances, extreme drought conditions in many parts of the country. There does not appear to be any secular trend in the frequency of either wet or dry regimes through the analysis period. Wet conditions prevailed in much of the country in the early 1980s; a return to drier conditions in the past couple of years, therefore, appears to be just a normal swing to an opposite regime

  7. Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Grant P

    2012-07-01

    Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad

  8. Triggering regime change: A comparative analysis of the performance of innovation platforms that attempted to change the institutional context for nine agricultural domains in West Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hounkonnou, Dominique; Brouwers, Jan; Huis, Van Arnold; Jiggins, Janice; Kossou, Dansou; Röling, N.G.; Sakyi-dawson, Owuraku; Traoré, Mamoudou

    2016-01-01

    The article synthesises the experiences of innovation platforms (IPs) that engaged in open-ended experimental action to improve the institutional context for smallholder farm development in West Africa. The IPs sought change at the level of the institutional regime covering an entire agricultural

  9. MODERN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ICE REGIME OF RUSSIAN ARCTIC RIVERS AND THEIR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE 21ST CENTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Agafonova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Changes in rivers ice regime features and the climatic resources of the winter period were examined for the territory of Russia northward from 60° N. Datasets from 220 gauging stations for the period from 1960 to 2014 have been used in the study both with the results of numerical experiments carried out using climate models in the framework of the international project CMIP5. A change in the duration of the ice phenomena period, the ice cover period and the maximum thickness of ice on the rivers for the scenario RCP 8.5 by the end of the 21st century for a spatial grid with a distance between the nodes of 1.75x1.75 degrees in latitude and longitude has been estimated. We elaborated series of the maps. Main features of the ice regime changes are consistent with the expected changes in the duration of the cold season and the accumulated negative air temperatures. The significant changes are expected for the rivers of the Kola Peninsula and the lower reaches of the rivers Northern Dvina and Pechora, whereas the lowest changes - for the center of Eastern Siberia. 

  10. Study of recent changes in sedimentation regime inside Cienfuegos Bay, Cuba using 210Pb and 137Cs as tracers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso-Hernandez, A.; Delfanti, R.; Papucci, C.; Diaz-Asencio, M.; Munoz-Caravaca, A.

    2002-01-01

    Sedimentation dynamics in the Cienfuegos Bay was investigated based on profiles and inventories of 210 Pb ex and 137 Cs in cores collected at two sites. The age of sediment layers was determined using the CRS model. Both cores show changes in sedimentation regime in the last 40 years. Since 1960-1965 sediment accumulation rates have doubled in both cells of the bay, from 0.2 to 0.4 g.cm -2 .y -1 . This change was probably one of the factors that influenced the important environmental modifications observed in the area. (author)

  11. Monetary and exchange rate regimes changes: The cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josifidis Kosta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores (former transition economies, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Republic of Serbia, concerning abandonment of the exchange rate targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes and movement toward explicit/implicit inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper identifies different subperiods concerning crucial monetary and exchange rate regimes, and tracks the changes of specific monetary transmission channels i.e. exchange rate channel, interest rate channel, indirect and direct influences to the exchange rate, with variance decomposition of VAR/VEC model. The empirical results indicate that Polish monetary strategy toward higher monetary and exchange rate flexibility has been performed smoothly, gradually and planned, compared to the Slovak and, especially, Czech case. The comparison of three former transition economies with the Serbian case indicate strong and persistent exchange rate pass-through, low interest rate pass-through, significant indirect and direct influence to the exchange rate as potential obstacles for successful inflation targeting in the Republic of Serbia.

  12. Conserving the past, mobilizing the Indonesian future: Archaeological sites, regime change and heritage politics in Indonesia in the 1950s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martijn Eickhoff

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The archaeological sites that the Indonesian Republic inherited from the past were not neutral. In this article we investigate the multilayered processes of signification connected to these sites – scattered all over Indonesia, and selected, uncovered, investigated, conserved and partly put on display by state archaeologists under Dutch and Japanese colonial regimes – and their meanings for the young Indonesian Republic in the 1950s. Taking a site-centred approach we focus on what we call ‘archaeological interventions’, and in particular on the reconstruction and conservation history of the ninth-century Śiwa temple at Prambanan (1910s-1950s, in the broader context of archaeological research (state supported as well as inter-Asian and internationally based and colonial and postcolonial conservation politics. How did the Archaeological Services in successive colonial and post-colonial regimes in Indonesia contribute to the transmission of archaeological knowledge and to the skills and ethics of restoration politics over time? What was the effect of regime change on the development of archaeological sites into national sites? And how did post-independence national heritage politics relate to other, ongoing identifications with these sites – colonial/international, inter-Asian and local – that were stimulated by archaeological interventions taking place at these sites?

  13. Modeling thermal structure, ice cover regime and sensitivity to climate change of two regulated lakes - a Norwegian case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebre, Solomon; Boissy, Thibault; Alfredsen, Knut

    2013-04-01

    A great number of river and lakes in Norway and the Nordic region at large are regulated for water management such as hydropower production. Such regulations have the potential to alter the thermal and hydrological regimes in the lakes and rivers downstream impacting on river environment and ecology. Anticipated changes as a result of climate change in meteorological forcing data such as air temperature and precipitation cause changes in the water balance, water temperature and ice cover duration in the reservoirs. This may necessitate changes in operational rules as part of an adaptation strategy for the future. In this study, a one dimensional (1D) lake thermodynamic and ice cover model (MyLake) has been modified to take into account the effect of dynamic outflows in reservoirs and applied to two small but relatively deep regulated lakes (reservoirs) in Norway (Follsjøen and Tesse). The objective was to assess climate change impacts on the seasonal thermal characteristics, the withdrawal temperatures, and the reservoir ice cover dynamics with current operational regimes. The model solves the vertical energy balance on a daily time-step driven by meteorological and hydrological forcings: 2m air temperature, precipitation, 2m relative humidity, 10m wind speed, cloud cover, air pressure, solar insolation, inflow volume, inflow temperature and reservoir outflows. Model calibration with multi-seasonal data of temperature profiles showed that the model performed well in simulating the vertical water temperature profiles for the two study reservoirs. The withdrawal temperatures were also simulated reasonably well. The comparison between observed and simulated lake ice phenology (which were available only for one of the reservoirs - Tesse) was also reasonable taking into account the uncertainty in the observational data. After model testing and calibration, the model was then used to simulate expected changes in the future (2080s) due to climate change by considering

  14. Empirically observed learning rates for concentrating solar power and their responses to regime change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilliestam, Johan; Labordena, Mercè; Patt, Anthony; Pfenninger, Stefan

    2017-07-01

    Concentrating solar power (CSP) capacity has expanded slower than other renewable technologies and its costs are still high. Until now, there have been too few CSP projects to derive robust conclusions about its cost development. Here we present an empirical study of the cost development of all operating CSP stations and those under construction, examining the roles of capacity growth, industry continuity, and policy support design. We identify distinct CSP expansion phases, each characterized by different cost pressure in the policy regime and different industry continuity. In 2008-2011, with low cost pressure and following industry discontinuity, costs increased. In the current phase, with high cost pressure and continuous industry development, costs decreased rapidly, with learning rates exceeding 20%. Data for projects under construction suggest that this trend is continuing and accelerating. If support policies and industrial structure are sustained, we see no near-term factors that would hinder further cost decreases.

  15. Fire regimes and vegetation change in tropical northern Australia during the late-Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackenzie, Lydia; Moss, Patrick; Ulm, Sean; Sloss, Craig; Heijnis, Henk; Jacobsen, Geraldine

    2016-04-01

    This study explores the impact of human occupation and abandonment on fire regimes and vegetation communities in the South Wellesley Islands, Gulf of Carpentaria, tropical northern Australia, using charcoal and pollen analysis from four sediment records. Pollen analysis from wetland sediments reveal vegetation succession from mangrove communities to hypersaline mudflats and open woodlands occurred during the late-Holocene. Aquatic species replaced salt tolerant species as the prograding shoreline and dune development formed the Marralda wetlands by 800 cal a BP on the south east coast of Bentinck Island. Wetlands developed on the north and west coast by 500 and 450 cal a BP, respectively. The timing of wetland initiation indicates localised late-Holocene sea level regression, stabilisation and coastal plain development in the Gulf of Carpentaria. Wetland initiation encouraged permanent human occupation of the South Wellesley archipelago, with ongoing archaeological research finding permanent occupation in the last 1500 years, followed by a significant increase in sites from 700 years ago, which peaks over the last 300 years. Macro-charcoal (>125μm) accumulation rates provide a record of fire intensity and frequency across the Island. Both local and regional fire events increase in the last 700 years as traditional owners occupied the Island, with local fires occurring every 104 and 74 years on average (N= 4 and 5 respectively). In the 1950's traditional Indigenous Kaiadilt fire management practices ceased, with the frequency and peak magnitude of fire events significantly increasing and vegetation communities becoming more open. The South Wellesley Islands were unoccupied until the 1980's and were not influenced by European occupation. This study of an Island ecosystem during the late-Holocene provides insight into the effect of human presence and fire regimes on vegetation composition and distribution in a fire resilient environment.

  16. Permeability changes induced by microfissure closure and opening in tectonized materials. Effect on slope pore pressure regime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De la Fuente, Maria; Vaunat, Jean; Pedone, Giuseppe; Cotecchia, Federica; Sollecito, Francesca; Casini, Francesca

    2015-04-01

    Tectonized clays are complex materials characterized by several levels of structures that may evolve during load and wetting/drying processes. Some microstructural patterns, as microfissures, have a particular influence on the value of permeability which is one of the main factors controlling pore pressure regime in slopes. In this work, the pore pressure regime measured in a real slope of tectonized clay in Southern Italy is analyzed by a numerical model that considers changes in permeability induced by microfissure closure and opening during the wetting and drying processes resulting from climatic actions. Permeability model accounts for the changes in Pore Size Distribution observed by Microscopy Intrusion Porosimetry. MIP tests are performed on representative samples of ground in initial conditions ("in situ" conditions) and final conditions (deformed sample after applying a wetting path that aims to reproduce the saturation of the soil under heavy rains). The resulting measurements allow for the characterization at microstructural level of the soil, identifying the distribution of dominant families pores in the sample and its evolution under external actions. Moreover, comparison of pore size density functions allows defining a microstructural parameter that depends on void ratio and degree of saturation and controls the variation of permeability. Model has been implemented in a thermo-hydro-mechanical code provided with a special boundary condition for climatic actions. Tool is used to analyze pore pressure measurements obtained in the tectonized clay slope. Results are analyzed at the light of the effect that permeability changes during wetting and drying have on the pore pressure regime.

  17. Quantification of Multiple Climate Change and Human Activity Impact Factors on Flood Regimes in the Pearl River Delta of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihan Tang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Coastal flood regimes have been irreversibly altered by both climate change and human activities. This paper aims to quantify the impacts of multiple factors on delta flood. The Pearl River Delta (PRD, with dense river network and population, is one of the most developed coastal areas in China. The recorded extreme water level (m.s.l. in flood season has been heavily interfered with by varied income flood flow, sea-level rise, and dredged riverbeds. A methodology, composed of a numerical model and the index R, has been developed to quantify the impacts of these driving factors in the the PRD. Results show that the flood level varied 4.29%–53.49% from the change of fluvial discharge, 3.35%–38.73% from riverbed dredging, and 0.12%–16.81% from sea-level rise. The variation of flood flow apparently takes the most effect and sea-level rise the least. In particular, dense river network intensifies the impact of income flood change and sea-level rise. Findings from this study help understand the causes of the the PRD flood regimes and provide theoretical support for flood protection in the delta region.

  18. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, Niko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364253940; Wada, Yoshi|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819; van Lanen, H.A.J

    2015-01-01

    Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that

  19. Operating results and experience and operating regimes in changing demands of energy world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hobza, L.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, there are stated some operating results and experience obtained from trial operation of Temelin NPP. In Europe, Temelin NPP is presently one of the latest implemented projects of the series of VVER 1000 nuclear units with proven V-320 pressurized water reactor. The distinction between Temelin NPP and original project lays mainly in supply of nuclear fuel and in I and C systems delivered by Westinghouse Company. Temelin NPP has passed through commissioning period and trial operation. The main goal of the trial operation was to meet the requirements of section 2, par. 4, point b) of Decree No. 106/98 Sb. and verification of project parameters and stability of operation, and the situation leading to violation of safety functions fulfilment according to Pre-operational Safety Report should not occur. The integral part of trial operation assessment was also successful performing of determined monitoring programmes, first refuelling and performing of prescribed tests and operational inspections. Simultaneously, first experience was obtained with nuclear fuel; providing of ancillary services; reliability of important components; operation of turbine-generator 1000 MW; chemical regime; influence to environment; and quality of contractors. As safety is the most important indicator, it can be stated that: no facts which would lead to decreasing of safety systems operability have been detected; no facts which would lead to negative affecting of barriers against fading the radioactivity into both working areas and environment, have been detected; good condition of fire safety has been continuously documented; requirements of limits for releasing waste water into environment have been continuously complied with; requirements of limits for releasing radioactive substances (in gaseous and/or liquid state) into environment have been continuously complied with. From the operation regimes point of view is clear, that it would be suitable for the power plant if the

  20. Eco-geomorphological Response of an Estuarine Wetland to Changes in the Hydraulic Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, A.; Rodrí Guez, J.

    2006-12-01

    In the Hunter Estuary, NSW, Australia, tidal regimes of numerous wetlands have been affected by extensive anthropomorphic intervention, including harbour dredging, land reclamation, and construction of infrastructure. The importance of these wetlands to ecosystem services such as primary productivity, flood attenuation and water quality enhancement has led to an increased effort to rehabilitate degraded sites by reintroduction of tidal flows. Because of the complex and dynamics interactions among hydraulic regime, vegetation and geomorphology, it is difficult to predict how wetlands will respond to the reintroduction of these flows and whether the resulting habitat distribution will achieve desired management outcomes. Eco-geomorphology research conducted at a rehabilitated wetland comprised of mangrove forest and saltmarsh has tracked the response of estuarine vegetation distribution and wetland geomorphology to reinstatement of tidal flows following removal of impediments in 1995. The wetland is an important site for migratory shorebirds and is highly compartmentalized due to the presence of roads and culverts. Our research methodology integrates historical analysis, field measurements and laboratory experiments. Historical analysis matched vegetation evolution obtained from aerial photography to bird roosting habitat use, which is in decline. Field data collection carried out in the last two years included topographic, vegetation and soil surveys; velocity, water quality and water level profiling; and high precision measurements of substrate shallow subsidence and vertical accretion. Laboratory studies focussed on the effects of estuarine vegetation on flow resistance. All this information has allowed for the characterization and conceptualization of the system, which includes zones with different tidal attenuation levels and vegetation distribution. It was found that an increased tidal frame resulting from hydraulic manipulation lead to a landward shift in

  1. Evidence of recent changes in the ice regime of lakes in the Canadian High Arctic from spaceborne satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surdu, Cristina M.; Duguay, Claude R.; Fernández Prieto, Diego

    2016-05-01

    Arctic lakes, through their ice cover phenology, are a key indicator of climatic changes that the high-latitude environment is experiencing. In the case of lakes in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), many of which are ice covered more than 10 months per year, warmer temperatures could result in ice regime shifts. Within the dominant polar-desert environment, small local warmer areas have been identified. These relatively small regions - polar oases - with longer growing seasons and greater biological productivity and diversity are secluded from the surrounding barren polar desert. The ice regimes of 11 lakes located in both polar-desert and polar-oasis environments, with surface areas between 4 and 542 km2, many of unknown bathymetry, were documented. In order to investigate the response of ice cover of lakes in the CAA to climate conditions during recent years, a 15-year time series (1997-2011) of RADARSAT-1/2 ScanSAR Wide Swath, ASAR Wide Swath, and Landsat acquisitions were analyzed. Results show that melt onset occurred earlier for all observed lakes. With the exception of Lower Murray Lake, all lakes experienced earlier summer ice minimum and water-clear-of-ice (WCI) dates, with greater changes being observed for polar-oasis lakes (9-24 days earlier WCI dates for lakes located in polar oases and 2-20 days earlier WCI dates for polar-desert lakes). Additionally, results suggest that some lakes may be transitioning from a perennial/multiyear to a seasonal ice regime, with only a few lakes maintaining a multiyear ice cover on occasional years. Aside Lake Hazen and Murray Lakes, which preserved their ice cover during the summer of 2009, no residual ice was observed on any of the other lakes from 2007 to 2011.

  2. Philippine Mining Capitalism: The Changing Terrains of Struggle in the Neoliberal Mining Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvin A. Camba

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes how the mining sector and anti-mining groups compete for mining outcomes in the Philippines. I argue that the transition to a neoliberal mineral regime has empowered the mining sector and weakened the mining groups by shifting the terrains of struggle onto the domains of state agencies and scientific networks. Since the neoliberal era, the mining sector has come up with two strategies. First, technologies of subjection elevate various public institutions to elect and select the processes aimed at making mining accountable and sensitive to the demands of local communities. However, they often refuse or lack the capacity to intervene effectively. Second, technologies of subjectivities allow a selective group of industry experts to single-handedly determine the environmental viability of mining projects. Mining consultants, specialists, and scientists chosen by mining companies determine the potential environmental damage on water bodies, air pollution, and soil erosion. Because of the mining capital’s access to economic and legal resources, anti-mining communities across the Philippines have been forced to compete on an unequal terrain for a meaningful social dialogue and mining outcomes.

  3. Biochemical and anatomical changes and yield reduction in rice (Oryza sativa L.) under varied salinity regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakim, M A; Juraimi, Abdul Shukor; Hanafi, M M; Ismail, Mohd Razi; Selamat, Ahmad; Rafii, M Y; Latif, M A

    2014-01-01

    Five Malaysian rice (Oryza sativa L.) varieties, MR33, MR52, MR211, MR219, and MR232, were tested in pot culture under different salinity regimes for biochemical response, physiological activity, and grain yield. Three different levels of salt stresses, namely, 4, 8, and 12 dS m(-1), were used in a randomized complete block design with four replications under glass house conditions. The results revealed that the chlorophyll content, proline, sugar content, soluble protein, free amino acid, and yield per plant of all the genotypes were influenced by different salinity levels. The chlorophyll content was observed to decrease with salinity level but the proline increased with salinity levels in all varieties. Reducing sugar and total sugar increased up to 8 dS m(-1) and decreased up to 12 dS m(-1). Nonreducing sugar decreased with increasing the salinity levels in all varieties. Soluble protein and free amino acid also decreased with increasing salinity levels. Cortical cells of MR211 and MR232 did not show cell collapse up to 8 dS m(-1) salinity levels compared to susceptible checks (IR20 and BRRI dhan29). Therefore, considering all parameters, MR211 and MR232 showed better salinity tolerance among the tested varieties. Both cluster and principal component analyses depict the similar results.

  4. Biochemical and Anatomical Changes and Yield Reduction in Rice (Oryza sativa L. under Varied Salinity Regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Hakim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Five Malaysian rice (Oryza sativa L. varieties, MR33, MR52, MR211, MR219, and MR232, were tested in pot culture under different salinity regimes for biochemical response, physiological activity, and grain yield. Three different levels of salt stresses, namely, 4, 8, and 12 dS m−1, were used in a randomized complete block design with four replications under glass house conditions. The results revealed that the chlorophyll content, proline, sugar content, soluble protein, free amino acid, and yield per plant of all the genotypes were influenced by different salinity levels. The chlorophyll content was observed to decrease with salinity level but the proline increased with salinity levels in all varieties. Reducing sugar and total sugar increased up to 8 dS m−1 and decreased up to 12 dS m−1. Nonreducing sugar decreased with increasing the salinity levels in all varieties. Soluble protein and free amino acid also decreased with increasing salinity levels. Cortical cells of MR211 and MR232 did not show cell collapse up to 8 dS m−1 salinity levels compared to susceptible checks (IR20 and BRRI dhan29. Therefore, considering all parameters, MR211 and MR232 showed better salinity tolerance among the tested varieties. Both cluster and principal component analyses depict the similar results.

  5. Quantifying the impact of bathymetric changes on the hydrological regimes in a large floodplain lake: Poyang Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Jing; Zhang, Qi; Ye, Xuchun; Zhang, Dan; Bai, Peng

    2018-06-01

    The hydrological regime of a lake is largely dependent on its bathymetry. A dramatic water level reduction has occurred in Poyang Lake in recent years, coinciding with significant bed erosion. Few studies have focused on the influence of bathymetric changes on the hydrological regime in such a complex river-lake floodplain system. This study combined hydrological data and a physically based hydrodynamic model to quantify the influence of the bathymetric changes (1998-2010) on the water level spatiotemporal distribution in Poyang Lake, based on a dry year (2006), a wet year (2010) and an average year (2000-2010). The following conclusions can be drawn from the results of this study: (1) The bed erosion of the northern outlet channel averaged 3 m, resulting in a decrease in the water level by 1.2-2 m in the northern channels (the most significantly influenced areas) and approximately 0.3 m in the central lake areas during low-level periods. The water levels below 16 m and 14 m were significantly affected during the rising period and recession period, respectively. The water level reduction was enhanced due to lower water levels. (2) The water surface profiles adjusted, and the rising and recession rates of the water level increased by 0.5-3.1 cm/d at the lake outlet. The bathymetric influence extended across the entire lake due to the emptying effect, resulting in a change in the water level distribution. The average annual outflow increased by 6.8%. (3) The bathymetric changes contributed approximately 14.4% to the extreme low water level in autumn 2006 and enhanced the drought in the dry season. This study quantified the impact of the bathymetric changes on the lake water levels, thereby providing a better understanding of the potential effects of continued sand mining operations and providing scientific explanations for the considerable variations in the hydrological regimes of Poyang Lake. Moreover, this study attempts to provide a reference for the assessment of

  6. Global Governance of Climate Change The Paris Agreement as a New Component of the UN Climate Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Wirth

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Paris Agreement, which was adopted in December 2015 and entered into force less than a year later, is the newest instrument to be adopted in the United Nations-sponsored global climate regime. The Paris Agreement takes its place under the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change and next to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and 2012 Doha Amendment. After describing the historical evolution of the UN climate regime employing the tools of international law, this Article explores the structural, institutional, and legal relationships between the new Paris Agreement and the prior development and content of UN-sponsored efforts on climate protection under the auspices of the 1992 Framework Convention. The need for such an analysis is particularly urgent because the new instrument was purposely not identified as a “protocol,” and its relationship to the prior Kyoto Protocol is unclear. This Article consequently traces the development of the universal, UN-anchored climate regime from its origins in the 1990s to the present moment, with particular attention to the structural relationship among its various components and historical junctures. The Article then examines the text and structure of the Paris Agreement, along with its context, against this background. The significance of the Agreement’s status as an instrument other than a “protocol,” and its uncertain textual and institutional relationship to the prior Kyoto Protocol, receive particular scrutiny. The Article concludes that the Paris Agreement, from a structural and institutional point of view, represents both a break with the past designed to initiate a new, globally-inclusive multilateral approach to climate protection, but also contains indications of continuity with prior questions of global climate policy.

  7. Regime shifts and ecological catastrophes in a model of plankton-oxygen dynamics under the climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrovskii, Sergei; Sekerci, Yadigar; Venturino, Ezio

    2017-07-07

    It is estimated that more than a half of the total atmospheric oxygen is produced in the oceans due to the photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton. Any significant decrease in the net oxygen production by phytoplankton is therefore likely to result in the depletion of atmospheric oxygen and in a global mass mortality of animals and humans. In its turn, the rate of oxygen production is known to depend on water temperature and hence can be affected by the global warming. We address this problem theoretically by considering a model of a coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics where the rate of oxygen production slowly changes with time to account for the ocean warming. We show that, when the temperature rises sufficiently high, a regime shift happens: the sustainable oxygen production becomes impossible and the system's dynamics leads to fast oxygen depletion and plankton extinction. We also consider a scenario when, after a certain period of increase, the temperature is set on a new higher yet apparently safe value, i.e. before the oxygen depletion disaster happens. We show that in this case the system dynamics may exhibit a long-term quasi-sustainable dynamics that can still result in an ecological disaster (oxygen depletion and mass extinctions) but only after a considerable period of time. Finally, we discuss the early warning signals of the approaching regime shift resulting in the disaster. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Forest legacies, climate change, altered disturbance regimes, invasive species and water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stohlgren, T.; Jarnevich, C.; Kumar, S.

    2007-01-01

    The factors that must be considered in seeking to predict changes in water availability has been examined. These factors are the following: forest legacies including logging, mining, agriculture, grazing, elimination of large carnivores, human-caused wildfire, and pollution; climate change and stream flow; altered disturbances such as frequency intensity and pattern of wildfires and insect outbreaks as well as flood control; lastly, invasive species like forest pests and pathogens. An integrated approach quantifying the current and past condition trends can be combined with spatial and temporal modeling to develop future change in forest structures and water supply. The key is a combination of geographic information system technologies with climate and land use scenarios, while preventing and minimizing the effects of harmful invasive species.

  9. Hydropeaking in Nordic rivers - combined analysis from effects of changing climate conditions and energy demands to river regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashraf, Faisal Bin; Marttila, Hannu; Torabi Haghighi, Ali; Alfredsen, Knut; Riml, Joakim; Kløve, Bjørn

    2017-04-01

    Increasing national and international demands for more flexible management of the energy resources with more non-storable renewables being used in adapting to the ongoing climate change will influence hydropower operations. Damming and regulation practices of river systems causes homogenization of long term river dynamics but also higher temporal sub-daily flow variations i.e. hydropeaking. In Nordic countries, many major rivers and lakes are regulated for hydropower purposes, which have caused considerable changes in river biotic, hydrologic and morphologic structures. Due to rapidly changing energy markets in the Nordic countries (deregulation of the power market and adding of renewable but intermittent sources of energy like, wind, solar, etc.) sub-daily flow conditions are under change within regulated river systems due to the increased demand on hydropower for providing balancing power. However, holistic analysis from changes in energy markets and its effect on sub-daily river regimes is lacking. This study analyzes the effects of hydropeaking on river regime in Finland, Sweden and Norway using long term high resolution data (15 minutes to hourly time interval) from 72 pristine and 136 regulated rivers with large spatial coverage across Fennoscandia. Since the sub-daily discharge variation is masked through the monthly or daily analyzes, in order to quantify these changes high resolution data is needed. In our study we will document, characterize and classify the impacts of sub-daily flow variation due to regulation and climatic variation on various river systems in Fennoscandia. Further, with increasing social demands for ecosystem services in regulated rivers, it is important to evaluate the new demand and update hydropower operation plan accordingly. We will analyse ecological response relationships along gradients of hydrological alteration for the biological communities, processes of river ecosystems and climate boundaries together with considering the

  10. Possible activities to support negotiations on a post - 2012 climate change regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    In December 2009 the 15th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will be held in Copenhagen. The main goal of the Conference is to adopt a broad international agreement on climate change. A negotiation process was launched at the Climate Conference in Bali in December 2007. Negotiations will include mitigation (reduction of global greenhouse gases), adaptation, technology, and financing. On the basis of an analysis of the present situation in the international climate change negotiations, this report suggests various activities that could be undertaken by the Nordic countries to facilitate progress in the negotiations and contribute to successful conclusions at the Copenhagen Conference. The proposed activities include development of proposals for participation of developing countries in the global efforts to control emissions of greenhouse gases, how to include adaptation issues in an international agreement, enhanced international cooperation on technology (research, development, deployment and transfer), and on how to increase international financing of climate change actions. The intention is that the Nordic Council of Ministers will evaluate the proposals and take the necessary steps for implementing selected activities

  11. Tools for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Wildfire Regimes in Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hety Herawati

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Fire is an intrinsic element of many forest ecosystems; it shapes their ecological processes, determines species composition and influences landscape structure. However, wildfires may: have undesirable effects on biodiversity and vegetation coverage; produce carbon emissions to the atmosphere; release smoke affecting human health; and cause loss of lives and property. There have been increasing concerns about the potential impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires. Climate change can alter factors that influence the occurrence of fire ignitions, fuel availability and fuel flammability. This review paper aims to identify tools and methods used for gathering information about the impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires, forest fuels and the probability of fires. Tools to assess the impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires include: remote sensing, dynamic global vegetation and landscape models, integrated fire-vegetation models, fire danger rating systems, empirical models and fire behavior models. This review outlines each tool in terms of its characteristics, spatial and temporal resolution, limitations and applicability of the results. To enhance and improve tool performance, each must be continuously tested in all types of forest ecosystems.

  12. Changing Regimes: Governmentality and Education Policy in Post-Apartheid South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christie, Pam

    2006-01-01

    This article applies Foucault's notion of governmentality to educational restructuring in post-apartheid South Africa. It argues that the nature of government in a modern state entails engaging with particular practices and domains of knowledge, which themselves constrain the changes that are conceivable and credible. Using Foucault's concepts of…

  13. Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, Bart A.; Gyimesi, Abel; Krimpen, Van Roderick R.D.; Boer, de Fred; Stillman, Richard A.; Green, Andy J.

    2016-01-01

    Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult,
    especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individualbased
    approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental
    changes on wintering

  14. Predicting effects of water regime changes on waterbirds : insights from staging swans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, B.A.; Gyimesi, A.; van Krimpen, R.R.D.; de Boer, W.F.; Stillman, R.A.

    2016-01-01

    Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging

  15. Morphodynamic regime change induced by riparian vegetation in a restored lowland stream

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eekhout, J.P.C.; Hoitink, A.J.F.

    2013-01-01

    With the aim to establish and understand morphological changes in response to stream restoration measures, a detailed monitoring plan was implemented in a lowland stream called Lunterse Beek, located in the Netherlands. Over a period of 1.5 yr, the monitoring 5 included serial morphological surveys,

  16. Workshop in political institutions - institutional analysis and global climate change: Design principles for robust international regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGinnis, M.

    1992-01-01

    Scientific evidence suggests that human activities have a significant effect on the world's climate. Political pressures are growing to establish political institutions at the global level that would help manage the social and economic consequences of climate change. Disagreements remain about the magnitude of these effects, as well as the regional distribution of the detrimental consequences of climate change. In this paper we do not wish to enter into the complexities of these technical debates. Instead, we wish to challenge a seemingly widespread consensus about the nature of the political response appropriate to this global dilemma. Specifically, we question the extent to which the open-quotes answerclose quotes can be said to reside primarily in the establishment of the new global institutions likely to emerge from the first open-quotes Earth Summitclose quotes - the United Nations (UN) Conference on Environment and Development - scheduled for June of 1992 in Rio de Janeiro

  17. Changing control and accounting regimes in an african gold mine: emergence of new despotic control

    OpenAIRE

    Tsamenyi, Mathew; Hopper, Trevor; Uddin, Shahzad

    2017-01-01

    Purpose – To examine whether the framework of management accounting transformations in Hopper et al. (2009) applies to accounting changes in the Ashanti Gold Corporation (AGC) in Ghana over 120 years from pre-colonialism to recent times.\\ud \\ud Design/methodology/approach – Mixed data sources are used, namely interviews, observations of practices, historical documentation, company reports, and research papers and theses. The results are categorized within the periods and contextual factors in...

  18. Development of a new IHA method for impact assessment of climate change on flow regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tao; Cui, Tong; Xu, Chong-Yu; Ciais, Philippe; Shi, Pengfei

    2017-09-01

    The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) based on 33 parameters in five dimensions (flow magnitude, timing, duration, frequency and change rate) have been widely used in evaluation of hydrologic alteration in river systems. Yet, inter-correlation seriously exists amongst those parameters, therefore constantly underestimates or overestimates actual hydrological changes. Toward the end, a new method (Representative-IHA, RIHA) is developed by removing repetitions based on Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) algorithm. RIHA is testified in evaluating effects of future climate change on hydro-ecology in the Niger River of Africa. Future flows are projected using three watershed hydrological models forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Results show that: (1) RIHA is able to eliminate self-correlations amongst IHA indicators and identify the dominant characteristics of hydrological alteration in the Upper Niger River, (2) March streamflow, September streamflow, December streamflow, 30-day annual maximum, low pluses duration and fall rates tends to increase over the period 2010-2099, while July streamflow and 90-day annual minimum streamflow shows decrease, (3) the Niger River will undergo moderate flow alteration under RCP8.5 in 2050s and 2080s and low alteration other scenarios, (4) future flow alteration may induce increase water temperatures, reduction dissolved oxygen and food resources. Consequently, aquatic biodiversity and fish community of Upper Niger River would become more vulnerable in the future. The new method enables more scientific evaluation for multi-dimensional hydrologic alteration under the context of climate change.

  19. Contrasting responses of millipedes and terrestrial isopods to hydrologic regime changes in forested montane wetlands

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sterzyńska, M.; Tajovský, Karel; Nicia, P.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 68, May-June (2015), s. 33-41 ISSN 1164-5563 Grant - others:National Centre of Sciences(PL) NN304 156240; National Centre of Sciences(PL) NN305 107540 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : wetlands * hydrologic change s * disturbances * mountain fens * soil macro-decomposers Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.951, year: 2015

  20. Changes in fat oxidation in response to various regimes of high intensity interval training (HIIT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astorino, Todd Anthony; Schubert, Matthew M

    2018-01-01

    Increased whole-body fat oxidation (FOx) has been consistently demonstrated in response to moderate intensity continuous exercise training. Completion of high intensity interval training (HIIT) and its more intense form, sprint interval training (SIT), has also been reported to increase FOx in different populations. An explanation for this increase in FOx is primarily peripheral adaptations via improvements in mitochondrial content and function. However, studies examining changes in FOx are less common in response to HIIT or SIT than those determining increases in maximal oxygen uptake which is concerning, considering that FOx has been identified as a predictor of weight gain and glycemic control. In this review, we explored physiological and methodological issues underpinning existing literature concerning changes in FOx in response to HIIT and SIT. Our results show that completion of interval training increases FOx in approximately 50% of studies, with the frequency of increased FOx higher in response to studies using HIIT compared to SIT. Significant increases in β-HAD, citrate synthase, fatty acid binding protein, or FAT/CD36 are likely responsible for the greater FOx seen in these studies. We encourage scientists to adopt strict methodological procedures to attenuate day-to-day variability in FOx, which is dramatic, and develop standardized procedures for assessing FOx, which may improve detection of changes in FOx in response to HIIT.

  1. Effects of Rainfall-Induced Topsoil Structure Changes on Root-Zone Moisture Regime during the Dry Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Feng; Chen, Jiazhou; Lin, Lirong

    2018-01-01

    Rainfall erosion and subsequent intermittent drought are serious barriers for agricultural production in the subtropical red soil region of China. Although it is widely recognized that rainfall-induced soil structure degradation reduced soil water storage and water-holding capacity, the effects of variation of the rainfall-induced topsoil structure on the subsequent soil water regime during the dry period is still rarely considered. The objective of this study was to ascertain the way of rainfall-induced topsoil structure changes on the subsequent soil water regime during the dry period. In a three-year-long experiment, six practices (CK, only crop; SM, straw mulching; PAM, polyacrylamide surface application; B, contour Bahia-grass strip; SPAM, straw mulching and polyacrylamide surface application; and BPAM, contour Bahia-grass strip and polyacrylamide surface application) were conducted at an 8° farmland with planting summer maize resulting in different topsoil structure and root-zone moisture, to establish and reveal the quantitatively relationship between the factors of topsoil structure and soil drought. Rainfall erosion significantly increased the soil crust coverage, and decreased the WSA 0.25, 0-30 mm soil porosity and mean pore size. There was no significant difference during the raining stage of root-zone water storage between CK and other practices. An index of soil drought intensity ( I) and degree ( D) was established using soil water loss rate and soil drought severity. The larger value of I means a higher rate of water loss. The larger value of D means more severe drought. During the dry period, I and D were significantly higher in CK than in other practices. I and D had significantly positively correlation with the crust size and crust coverage, and negatively with WSA 0.25, 15-30 mm soil porosity and mean pore size. Among of soil structure factors, the soil porosity had the largest effect on I and D. The rainfall-induced topsoil structure changes

  2. THE VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL REGIME, INDUCED BY CLIMATE CHANGES, IN DOLJ COUNTY AND IT IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIREA ADRIAN

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is now widely recognized as an actual fact: temperatures are rising, rainfall patterns are changing, glaciers and snow melts, and average global sea level rises. We expect these changes to continue and extreme weather conditions that lead to risks like floods and droughts to become more frequent and increase their intensity. Drought and phenomena associated with it, namely aridization (lowering excessive groundwater level and desertification (reduced area of ground covered by vegetation and a considerable depletion and soil erosion represents, after pollution, the second largest problem facing humanity, currently affecting all regions of the globe. In Dolj County, the area between Calafat-Poiana Mare-Sadova-Bechet- Dăbuleni and the Danube, covering about 104 600 hectares, represents the most typical aspect of semi-arid zone with accents of aridity and even desertification in Romania, the phenomenon being favored by the presence of sandy soils. In Dolj County, there may be seen an important manifestation of climate change on the rainfall regime: increasing linear trend especially in the northern part of the county compared to the extreme south of the country, where atmospheric circulation interaction with local relief conditions,often causes diminishing rainfall.

  3. Coastal regime shifts: rapid responses of coastal wetlands to changes in mangrove cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Hongyu; Weaver, Carolyn; Charles, Sean P; Whitt, Ashley; Dastidar, Sayantani; D'Odorico, Paolo; Fuentes, Jose D; Kominoski, John S; Armitage, Anna R; Pennings, Steven C

    2017-03-01

    Global changes are causing broad-scale shifts in vegetation communities worldwide, including coastal habitats where the borders between mangroves and salt marsh are in flux. Coastal habitats provide numerous ecosystem services of high economic value, but the consequences of variation in mangrove cover are poorly known. We experimentally manipulated mangrove cover in large plots to test a set of linked hypotheses regarding the effects of changes in mangrove cover. We found that changes in mangrove cover had strong effects on microclimate, plant community, sediment accretion, soil organic content, and bird abundance within 2 yr. At higher mangrove cover, wind speed declined and light interception by vegetation increased. Air and soil temperatures had hump-shaped relationships with mangrove cover. The cover of salt marsh plants decreased at higher mangrove cover. Wrack cover, the distance that wrack was distributed from the water's edge, and sediment accretion decreased at higher mangrove cover. Soil organic content increased with mangrove cover. Wading bird abundance decreased at higher mangrove cover. Many of these relationships were non-linear, with the greatest effects when mangrove cover varied from zero to intermediate values, and lesser effects when mangrove cover varied from intermediate to high values. Temporal and spatial variation in measured variables often peaked at intermediate mangrove cover, with ecological consequences that are largely unexplored. Because different processes varied in different ways with mangrove cover, the "optimum" cover of mangroves from a societal point of view will depend on which ecosystem services are most desired. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  4. Copper Pollution Increases the Resistance of Soil Archaeal Community to Changes in Water Regime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Liu, Yu-Rong; Cui, Li-Juan; Hu, Hang-Wei; Wang, Jun-Tao; He, Ji-Zheng

    2017-11-01

    Increasing efforts have been devoted to exploring the impact of environmental stresses on soil bacterial communities, but the work on the archaeal community is seldom. Here, we constructed microcosm experiments to investigate the responses of archaeal communities to the subsequent dry-rewetting (DW) disturbance in two contrasting soils (fluvo-aquic and red soil) after 6 years of copper pollution. Ten DW cycles were exerted on the two soils with different copper levels, followed by a 6-week recovery period. In both soils, archaeal diversity (Shannon index) in the high copper-level treatments increased over the incubation period, and archaeal community structure changed remarkably as revealed by the non-metric multidimensional scaling ordinations. In both soils, copper pollution altered the response of dominant operational taxonomic units (OTUs) to the DW disturbance. Throughout the incubation and recovery period, the resistance of archaeal abundance to the DW disturbance was higher in the copper-polluted soils than soils without pollution. Taken together, copper pollution altered the response of soil archaeal diversity and community composition to the DW disturbance and increased the resistance of the archaeal abundance. These findings have important implications for understanding soil microbial responses to ongoing environmental change.

  5. Climatic change and variability: The effects of an altered water regime on Great Lakes coastal wetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortsch, L.

    1990-01-01

    Wetlands of Canada are disappearing at a rapid rate due to urban encroachment and agricultural land drainage. Climatic change may be another threat to their continued viability. Wetlands perform numerous functions such as providing wildlife habitat, enhancing water quality, providing recreation opportunities and supporting commercial activities. Impact scenarios of global warming on Great Lakes hydrology and wetland ecosystem response to water level changes are tabulated. Wetland response to lower annual water levels depends on the type of wetland, its geomorphology and bathymetry. Marshes and open water wetland adapt more readily to lower levels than swamps. Swamps are less resilient since trees cannot regenerate and colonize quickly. Enclosed and barrier beach wetlands are more prone to drying out and loosing wetland vegetation during low water periods. In open shoreline wetlands, the areal extent could increase if there is a gentle slope and other suitable conditions. Precambrian Shield wetlands are located in areas of irregular slope and rocky substrate, and would have fewer sites for successful colonization. 15 refs., 2 tabs

  6. Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolet, Bart A; Gyimesi, Abel; van Krimpen, Roderick R D; de Boer, Willem F; Stillman, Richard A

    2016-01-01

    Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick's swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments.

  7. Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bart A Nolet

    Full Text Available Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick's swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments.

  8. Potential impacts of climate change on flow regime and fish habitat in mountain rivers of the south-western Balkans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadaki, Christina; Soulis, Konstantinos; Muñoz-Mas, Rafael; Martinez-Capel, Francisco; Zogaris, Stamatis; Ntoanidis, Lazaros; Dimitriou, Elias

    2016-01-01

    The climate change in the Mediterranean area is expected to have significant impacts on the aquatic ecosystems and particular in the mountain rivers and streams that often host important species such as the Salmo farioides, Karaman 1938. These impacts will most possibly affect the habitat availability for various aquatic species resulting to an essential alteration of the water requirements, either for dams or other water abstractions, in order to maintain the essential levels of ecological flow for the rivers. The main scope of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts on the hydrological patterns and typical biota for a south-western Balkan mountain river, the Acheloos. The altered flow regimes under different emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were estimated using a hydrological model and based on regional climate simulations over the study area. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methodology was then used to assess the potential streamflow alterations in the studied river due to predicted climate change conditions. A fish habitat simulation method integrating univariate habitat suitability curves and hydraulic modeling techniques were used to assess the impacts on the relationships between the aquatic biota and hydrological status utilizing a sentinel species, the West Balkan trout. The most prominent effects of the climate change scenarios depict severe flow reductions that are likely to occur especially during the summer flows, changing the duration and depressing the magnitude of the natural low flow conditions. Weighted Usable Area-flow curves indicated the limitation of suitable habitat for the native trout. Finally, this preliminary application highlighted the potential of science-based hydrological and habitat simulation approaches that are relevant to both biological quality elements (fish) and current EU Water policy to serve as efficient tools for the estimation of possible climate

  9. Seasonal snow cover regime and historical change in Central Asia from 1986 to 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Hang; Aizen, Elena; Aizen, Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    A series of statistics describing seasonal Snow Cover Extent and timing in Central Asia (CA) have been derived from AVHRR satellite images for the time period from 1986 to 2008. Analysis of long term mean snow cover statistics shows that the area weighted mean of long term Snow Covering Days (SCD) for the whole CA is 95.2 ± 65.7 days. High elevation mountainous areas above 3000 m in Altai, Tien Shan and Pamir, which account for about 2.8% of total area in CA, have SCD > 240 days. Deserts (Karakorum Desert, Taklamakan Desert, Kumtag Desert) and rain shadow areas of major mountains, accounting for 27.0% of total area in CA, have SCD in the range of 0-30 days. Factors affecting snow cover distribution have been analyzed using simple linear regression and segmented regression. For plain regions and windward regions, the SCD rate is + 5.9 days/100 m, while for leeward regions, the rate jumps from + 0.7 days/100 m to + 10.0 days/100 m at about 2335 m. Latitude affects the SCD, especially in plain regions with insignificant change of elevation, with rates of 9-10 days/degree from south to north. The Mann-Kendal test and the Theil-Sen regression methods have been applied to analyze the spatial heterogeneous trends of change of SCD, Snow Cover Onset Date (SCOD), and Snow Cover Melt Date (SCMD). Area weighed mean SCD in the whole CA does not exhibit significant trend of change from 1986 to 2008. Increase of SCD was observed in the northeastern Kazakh Steppe. Low elevation areas below 2000 m in Central Tien Shan and Eastern Tien Shan, as well as mid-elevation areas from 1000 m to 3000 m in Western Tien Shan, Pamiro-Alai and Western Pamir, also experienced increase of SCD, associated with both earlier SCOD and later SCMD. Decrease of SCD was observed in mountainous areas of Altai, Tien Shan and Pamir, and vast areas in plains surrounding the Aral Sea.

  10. Perpetual American vanilla option pricing under single regime change risk: an exhaustive study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero, Miquel

    2009-07-01

    Perpetual American options are financial instruments that can be readily exercised and do not mature. In this paper we study in detail the problem of pricing this kind of derivatives, for the most popular flavour, within a framework in which some of the properties—volatility and dividend policy—of the underlying stock can change at a random instant of time but in such a way that we can forecast their final values. Under this assumption we can model actual market conditions because most relevant facts usually entail sharp predictable consequences. The effect of this potential risk on perpetual American vanilla options is remarkable: the very equation that will determine the fair price depends on the solution to be found. Sound results are found under the optics both of finance and physics. In particular, a parallelism among the overall outcome of this problem and a phase transition is established.

  11. Resilience, Regime Shifts, and Guided Transition under Climate Change: Examining the Practical Difficulties of Managing Continually Changing Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brenda B. Lin

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Managing terrestrial systems has become increasingly difficult under climate change as unidirectional shifts in climate conditions challenge the resilience of ecosystems to maintain their compositional structure and function. Despite the increased attention of resilience management to guide transformational change, questions remain as to how to apply resilience to manage transitions. Rather than pushing systems across thresholds into alternative states, climate change may create a stepwise progression of unknown transitional states that track changing climate conditions. Because of this uncertainty, we must find ways to guide transitioning systems across climate boundaries towards states that are socially and environmentally desirable. We propose to ease the uncertainty of managing shifting systems by providing an approach to adaptive management that we call guided transition, where socially and environmentally important ecosystem functions are preserved through transitions by considering and maintaining the species and structures needed for the desired functions. Scientifically, it will require a better understanding of the relationships between structure, species composition, and function for specific systems. Managers will also need to identify important functions at the local, regional, and national scale, and to determine how best to transition systems to a desired state based on existing scientific knowledge. Guided transition, therefore, helps guide the process of adaptive management by specifying a function-based management pathway that guides transitions through climatic changes.

  12. Bringing the material back in: US responses to the global climate change regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, D.R.

    2006-01-01

    Since environmental sociology was born as a sub-discipline of sociology, its proponents have encouraged sociological research that incorporates environmental factors. After a quarter of a century, however, sociological research continues to overlook the role of environmental factors - even when the object of the research is to understand an environmental issue. This paper analyzes the role of environmental factors to understand the ways that natural resource interests have been translated into political outcome in the form of American responses to the potential regulation of greenhouse gases. Incorporating data about natural resource use and national decision-making both before and after the Bush Administration's decision to pull out of negotiations for the Kyoto Protocol, this paper concludes that comprehending fully political decisions about global climate change in the United States requires that we recognize the conjoint constitution between policy-making and the environmental factors that are affected by such policies. More broadly, this research supports the notion that, in order to understand social phenomena more fully, sociologists must recommit to bringing environmental factors into social research. (author)

  13. The cultural evolution of democracy: saltational changes in a political regime landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindenfors, Patrik; Jansson, Fredrik; Sandberg, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Transitions to democracy are most often considered the outcome of historical modernization processes. Socio-economic changes, such as increases in per capita GNP, education levels, urbanization and communication, have traditionally been found to be correlates or 'requisites' of democratic reform. However, transition times and the number of reform steps have not been studied comprehensively. Here we show that historically, transitions to democracy have mainly occurred through rapid leaps rather than slow and incremental transition steps, with a median time from autocracy to democracy of 2.4 years, and overnight in the reverse direction. Our results show that autocracy and democracy have acted as peaks in an evolutionary landscape of possible modes of institutional arrangements. Only scarcely have there been slow incremental transitions. We discuss our results in relation to the application of phylogenetic comparative methods in cultural evolution and point out that the evolving unit in this system is the institutional arrangement, not the individual country which is instead better regarded as the 'host' for the political system.

  14. Phenology of German Chamomile and its Changes under Different Irrigation Regimes and Plant Densities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza PIRZAD

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to definite growth stages of Matricaria chamomilla L., 40 plants were planted with 200 200 cm distance from each other. To determine the phenology under different water stress condition and plant densities, an experiment was conducted in factorial based on randomized complete block design with two factors including irrigation at 4 levels (25, 50, 75, and 100 mm evaporation from pan class A, and plant density at 5 levels (cultivation in 30 cm rows with 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 cm intra-row spaces with three replications. Definition of growth stages including the maximum number of nodes, sub stems and tillers were 21, 20 and 14 that were occurred at 970, 1088 and 1088 oC growth degree-days, respectively. The numbers of nodes were 28.6, 30.0, 30.2 and 27.8, of sub stem were 19.2, 18.4, 19.8 and 18.4; and of tillers were 14.8, 14.0, 15.0 and 14.4 that were obtained from irrigation at 25, 50, 75, and 100 mm evaporation from pan, respectively. In the other hand, the number of nodes as follow 28.25, 29.00, 29.75, 29.75 and 29.00; sub stem as 17.50, 20.00, 20.75, 19.00 and 17.50; and tillers were 15.00, 13.50, 14.75, 14.00 and 15.50 that were obtained from 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 cm intra-row spacing, respectively. Differences by irrigation on GDDs values were observed at the second harvest. However the earliest observation of flower and seed receiving at the first harvest occurred on 5 cm intra-row spacing. These changes were identical by GDDs for second harvest of flower, but with mild slope of reduction. There were no differences in number of leaves and tillers among irrigation levels and plant densities.

  15. Phenology of German Chamomile and its Changes under Different Irrigation Regimes and Plant Densities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza PIRZAD

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to definite growth stages of Matricaria chamomilla L., 40 plants were planted with 200 � 200 cm distance from each other. To determine the phenology under different water stress condition and plant densities, an experiment was conducted in factorial based on randomized complete block design with two factors including irrigation at 4 levels (25, 50, 75, and 100 mm evaporation from pan class A, and plant density at 5 levels (cultivation in 30 cm rows with 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 cm intra-row spaces with three replications. Definition of growth stages including the maximum number of nodes, sub stems and tillers were 21, 20 and 14 that were occurred at 970, 1088 and 1088 oC growth degree-days, respectively. The numbers of nodes were 28.6, 30.0, 30.2 and 27.8, of sub stem were 19.2, 18.4, 19.8 and 18.4; and of tillers were 14.8, 14.0, 15.0 and 14.4 that were obtained from irrigation at 25, 50, 75, and 100 mm evaporation from pan, respectively. In the other hand, the number of nodes as follow 28.25, 29.00, 29.75, 29.75 and 29.00; sub stem as 17.50, 20.00, 20.75, 19.00 and 17.50; and tillers were 15.00, 13.50, 14.75, 14.00 and 15.50 that were obtained from 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 cm intra-row spacing, respectively. Differences by irrigation on GDDs values were observed at the second harvest. However the earliest observation of flower and seed receiving at the first harvest occurred on 5 cm intra-row spacing. These changes were identical by GDDs for second harvest of flower, but with mild slope of reduction. There were no differences in number of leaves and tillers among irrigation levels and plant densities.

  16. Mobility and transport of mercury and methylmercury in peat as a function of changes in water table regime and plant functional groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristine M. Haynes; Evan S. Kane; Lynette Potvin; Erik A. Lilleskov; Randy Kolka; Carl P. J. Mitchell

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is likely to significantly affect the hydrology, ecology, and ecosystem function of peatlands, with potentially important but unclear impacts on mercury mobility within and transport from peatlands. Using a full-factorial mesocosm approach, we investigated the potential impacts on mercury mobility of water table regime changes (high and low) and...

  17. Low Frequency Modulation of Extreme Temperature Regimes in a Changing Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Black, Robert X. [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2014-11-24

    The project examines long-term changes in extreme temperature episodes (ETE) associated with planetary climate modes (PCMs) in both the real atmospheric and climate model simulations. The focus is on cold air outbreaks (CAOs) and warm waves (WWs) occurring over the continental US during the past 60 winters. No significant long-term trends in either WWs or CAOs are observed over the US. The annual frequency of CAOs is affected by the (i) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the Southeast US and (ii) Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern over the Northwest US. WW frequency is influenced by the (i) NAO over the eastern US and (ii) combined influence of PNA, Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and ENSO over the southern US. The collective influence of PCMs accounts for as much as 50% of the regional variability in ETE frequency. During CAO (WW) events occurring over the southeast US, there are low (high) pressure anomalies at higher atmospheric levels over the southeast US with oppositely-signed pressure anomalies in the lower atmosphere over the central US. These patterns lead to anomalous northerly (for CAOs) or southerly (for WWs) flow into the southeast leading to cold or warm surface air temperature anomalies, respectively. One distinction is that CAOs involve substantial air mass transport while WW formation is more local in nature. The primary differences among event categories are in the origin and nature of the pressure anomaly features linked to ETE onset. In some cases, PCMs help to provide a favorable environment for event onset. Heat budget analyses indicate that latitudinal transport in the lower atmosphere is the main contributor to regional cooling during CAO onset. This is partly offset by adiabatic warming associated with subsiding air. Additional diagnoses reveal that this latitudinal transport is partly due to the remote physical influence of a shallow cold pool of air trapped along the east side of the Rocky Mountains. ETE and PCM behavior is also

  18. Long term changes in social metabolism and land use in Czechoslovakia, 1830-2000. An energy transition under changing political regimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuskova, Petra [Department of Social Geography and Regional Development, Faculty of Science, Charles University in Prague (Czech Republic); Gingrich, Simone; Krausmann, Fridolin [Institute of Social Ecology, Faculty for Interdisciplinary Studies Vienna, Klagenfurt University (Austria)

    2008-12-01

    Industrialisation goes along with sweeping changes in society's interrelations with its environment. The transition from an agrarian to an industrial society leads to fundamentally new patterns in social metabolism, a process which has been described as socio-metabolic transition. This paper investigates this transition for the case of the current Czech and Slovak Republics and presents a dataset on the development of key variables related to social metabolism during the last 170 years. The dataset includes time series data on the extraction of biomass and fossil fuels, energy consumption and land use. Combining data on Bohemia and Moravia (1830-1915) with data on Czechoslovakia (1918-1992) and the Czech and Slovak Republics (1993-2002), the study covers a period of consecutive political and institutional changes. It includes the feudal regime of the late period of the Habsburg Empire and its disintegration with WWI, the short period of the Czechoslovak Republic in the interwar period, the era of a planned economy under a communist regime, the collapse of this regime and the subsequent turn towards a market economy and European integration in the 1990s. The period was characterized by economic and physical growth. It saw a doubling of population and a growth in GDP by a factor 20. Domestic energy consumption (DEC) increased by a factor 10 and the share of biomass in DEC declined from more than 98% to less than 20%. All in all the observed changes closely resemble the characteristic path of the socio-metabolic transition as observed in other Western European economies. Major political and economic changes did not result in fundamental alterations of the socio-metabolic transition until the mid-20th century. The communist era (1945-1989) was characterized by rapid physical growth and changes in the energy and land use system very similar to those of other Western European economies in the same period, however leading to DEC values substantially higher than those

  19. High-resolution records detect human-caused changes to the boreal forest wildfire regime in interior Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Mann, Daniel H.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Wooller, Matthew J.; Finney, Bruce P.

    2016-01-01

    Stand-replacing wildfires are a keystone disturbance in the boreal forest, and they are becoming more common as the climate warms. Paleo-fire archives from the wildland–urban interface can quantify the prehistoric fire regime and assess how both human land-use and climate change impact ecosystem dynamics. Here, we use a combination of a sedimentary charcoal record preserved in varved lake sediments (annually layered) and fire scars in living trees to document changes in local fire return intervals (FRIs) and regional fire activity over the last 500 years. Ace Lake is within the boreal forest, located near the town of Fairbanks in interior Alaska, which was settled by gold miners in AD 1902. In the 400 years before settlement, fires occurred near the lake on average every 58 years. After settlement, fires became much more frequent (average every 18  years), and background charcoal flux rates rose to four times their preindustrial levels, indicating a region-wide increase in burning. Despite this surge in burning, the preindustrial boreal forest ecosystem and permafrost in the watershed have remained intact. Although fire suppression has reduced charcoal influx since the 1950s, an aging fuel load experiencing increasingly warm summers may pose management problems for this and other boreal sites that have similar land-use and fire histories. The large human-caused fire events that we identify can be used to test how increasingly common megafires may alter ecosystem dynamics in the future.

  20. Impacts of Land Use Change on the Natural Flow Regime: A Case Study in the Meramec River Watershed in Eastern Missouri, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C. L.; Knouft, J.; Chu, M.

    2017-12-01

    The natural flow regime within a watershed can be considered as the expected temporal patterns of streamflow variation in the absence of human impacts. While ecosystems have evolved to function under these conditions, the natural flow regime of most rivers has been significantly altered by human activities. Land use change, including the development of agriculture and urbanization, is a primary cause of the loss of natural flow regimes. These changes have altered discharge volume, timing, and variability, and consequently affected the structure and functioning of river ecosystems. The Meramec River watershed is located in east central Missouri and changes in land use have been the primary factor impacting flow regimes across the watershed. In this study, a watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was developed to simulate a long-term time series of streamflow (1978-2014) within the watershed. Model performance was evaluated using statistical metrics and graphical technique including R-squared, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, cumulative error, and 1:1-ratio comparison between observed and simulated variables. The calibrated and validated SWAT model was then used to quantify the responses of the watershed when it was a forested natural landscape. An Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) approach was applied to characterize the flow regime under the current landcover conditions as well as the simulated natural flow regime under the no land use change scenario. Differences in intra- and inter-annual ecologically relevant flow metrics were then compared using SWAT model outputs in conjunction with the IHA approach based on model outputs from current and no land use change conditions. This study provides a watershed-scale understanding of effects of land use change on a river's flow variability and provides a framework for the development of restoration plans for heavily altered watersheds.

  1. Descriptors of natural thermal regimes in streams and their responsiveness to change in the Pacific Northwest of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Jason B. Dunham; Roy Haggerty

    2013-01-01

    1. Temperature is a major driver of ecological processes in stream ecosystems, yet the dynamics of thermal regimes remain poorly described. Most work has focused on relatively simple descriptors that fail to capture the full range of conditions that characterise thermal regimes of streams across seasons or throughout the year.2. To more...

  2. How is the impact of climate change on river flow regimes related to the impact on mean annual runoff? A global-scale analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Döll, Petra; Schmied, Hannes Müller

    2012-01-01

    To assess the impact of climate change on freshwater resources, change in mean annual runoff (MAR) is only a first indicator. In addition, it is necessary to analyze changes of river flow regimes, i.e. changes in the temporal dynamics of river discharge, as these are important for the well-being of humans (e.g. with respect to water supply) and freshwater-dependent biota (e.g. with respect to habitat availability). Therefore, we investigated, in a global-scale hydrological modeling study, the relation between climate-induced changes of MAR and changes of a number of river flow regime indicators, including mean river discharge, statistical low and high flows, and mean seasonal discharge. In addition, we identified, for the first time at the global scale, where flow regime shifts from perennial to intermittent flow regimes (or vice versa) may occur due to climate change. Climate-induced changes of all considered river flow regime indicators (except seasonal river flow changes) broadly follow the spatial pattern of MAR changes. The differences among the computed changes of MAR due to the application of the two climate models are larger than the differences between the change of MAR and the change of the diverse river flow indicators for one climate model. At the sub-basin and grid cell scales, however, there are significant differences between the changes of MAR, mean annual river discharge, and low and high flows. Low flows are projected to be more than halved by the 2050s in almost twice the area as compared to MAR. Similarly, northern hemisphere summer flows decrease more strongly than MAR. Differences between the high emissions scenario A2 (with emissions of 25 Gt C yr −1 in the 2050s) and the low emissions scenario B2 (16 Gt C yr −1 ) are generally small as compared to the differences due to the two climate models. The benefits of avoided emissions are, however, significant in those areas where flows are projected to be more than halved due to climate change

  3. Flow regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liles, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    Internal boundaries in multiphase flow greatly complicate fluid-dynamic and heat-transfer descriptions. Different flow regimes or topological configurations can have radically dissimilar interfacial and wall mass, momentum, and energy exchanges. To model the flow dynamics properly requires estimates of these rates. In this paper the common flow regimes for gas-liquid systems are defined and the techniques used to estimate the extent of a particular regime are described. Also, the current computer-code procedures are delineated and introduce a potentially better method is introduced

  4. Radial growth of Tamarix ramosissima responds to changes in the water regime in an extremely arid region of northwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Shengchun; Xiao, Honglang

    2007-11-01

    The response of radial growth of tamarisk ( Tamarix ramosissima) growing on the shore of West-Juyan Lake, on the Heihe River in northwestern China, to changes in the lake’s water regime was studied using tree-ring chronologies, principal components (PC) analysis, and classical correlation analysis. The first PC accounted for 53.3% of the total variance and reflected a common growth response at different sites. Correlation analysis indicated that fluctuations in the lake’s water level during the growing season (May August) was primarily responsible for variations in the radial growth of tamarisk and explained more of the variance at low-lying sites than at higher sites. The second PC accounted for 30.7% of the total variance and revealed distinct differences in growth response between low-lying sites and those on higher ground. Total annual precipitation played an important role in radial growth of tamarisk at the higher sites. The spatial pattern in the tree-ring chronologies for different sites was performed in the temporal pattern of the tree-ring chronology at the same site. Other factors such as microtopography, soil salinity, sand activity, and browsing by herbivores also affected the radial growth of tamarisk. The diversity in responses to the maximum water table depth for tamarisk in the study area appears to have been caused by local variations in precipitation, which can compensate to some degree for the inability of a plant’s roots to reach the water table.

  5. Large wood, sediment, and flow regimes: Their interactions and temporal changes caused by human impacts in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Futoshi; Seo, Jung Il; Akasaka, Takumi; Swanson, Frederick J.

    2017-02-01

    precipitation. Additionally, regime shifts of water, sediment, and LW may continue or they may reach a dynamic state of quasi-equilibrium in the future. Continued monitoring of these three components, taking into account their geographic variation, is critical for anticipating and managing future changes in river-floodplain systems in Japan and around the world.

  6. Comparing statistical and process-based flow duration curve models in ungauged basins and changing rain regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, M. F.; Thompson, S. E.

    2016-02-01

    The prediction of flow duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged basins remains an important task for hydrologists given the practical relevance of FDCs for water management and infrastructure design. Predicting FDCs in ungauged basins typically requires spatial interpolation of statistical or model parameters. This task is complicated if climate becomes non-stationary, as the prediction challenge now also requires extrapolation through time. In this context, process-based models for FDCs that mechanistically link the streamflow distribution to climate and landscape factors may have an advantage over purely statistical methods to predict FDCs. This study compares a stochastic (process-based) and statistical method for FDC prediction in both stationary and non-stationary contexts, using Nepal as a case study. Under contemporary conditions, both models perform well in predicting FDCs, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.80 in 75 % of the tested catchments. The main drivers of uncertainty differ between the models: parameter interpolation was the main source of error for the statistical model, while violations of the assumptions of the process-based model represented the main source of its error. The process-based approach performed better than the statistical approach in numerical simulations with non-stationary climate drivers. The predictions of the statistical method under non-stationary rainfall conditions were poor if (i) local runoff coefficients were not accurately determined from the gauge network, or (ii) streamflow variability was strongly affected by changes in rainfall. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the streamflow regimes in catchments characterized by frequent wet-season runoff and a rapid, strongly non-linear hydrologic response are particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall statistics. In these cases, process-based prediction approaches are favored over statistical models.

  7. Hydrological Responses to Changes in the Rainfall Regime are Less Pronounced in Forested Basins: an Analysis of Southern Brazil, 1975-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chagas, V. B. P.; Chaffe, P. L. B.

    2017-12-01

    It is unknown to what extent the hydrological responses to changes in the rainfall regime vary across forested and non-forested landscapes. Southern Brazil is approximately 570000 km² and was naturally covered mostly by tropical and subtropical forests. In the last century, a large proportion of forests were replaced by agricultural activities. The rainfall regime has also changed substantially in the last decades. The annual rainfall, number and magnitude of extreme events, and number of non-rainy days have increased in most of the area. In this study, we investigated the changes in the regime of 142 streamflow gauges and 674 rainfall gauges in Southern Brazil, from 1975 to 2010. The changes in the regime were analyzed for forested basins (i.e., with more than 50% forest coverage) and non-forested basins (i.e., with less than 20% forest coverage). The area of the river basins ranged from 100 to 60000 km². We analyzed a total of six signatures that represent the regime, including annual averages, seasonality, floods, and droughts. The statistical trends of the signatures were calculated using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope. The results showed that the majority of basins with opposing signal trends for mean annual streamflow and rainfall are non-forested basins (i.e., basins with higher anthropogenic impacts). Forested basins had a lower correlation between trends in the streamflow and rainfall trends for the seasonality and the average duration of drought events. There was a lower variability in the annual maximum 1-day streamflow trends in the forested basins. Additionally, despite a decrease in the 31-day rainfall minima and an increase in the seasonality, in forested basins the 7-day streamflow minima increases were substantially larger than in non-forested basins. In summary, the forested basins were less responsive to the changes in the precipitation 1-day maxima, seasonality, number of dry days, and 31-day minima.

  8. Faulting and erosion in the Argentine Precordillera during changes in subduction regime: Reconciling bedrock cooling and detrital records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosdick, Julie C.; Carrapa, Barbara; Ortíz, Gustavo

    2015-12-01

    The Argentine Precordillera is an archetypal retroarc fold-and-thrust belt that records tectonics associated with changing subduction regimes. The interactions between exhumation and faulting in the Precordillera were investigated using apatite and zircon (U-Th-Sm)/He and apatite fission track thermochronometry from the Precordillera and adjacent geologic domains. Inverse modeling of thermal histories constrains eastward in-sequence rock cooling associated with deformation and erosion from 18 to 2 Ma across the Central Precordillera tracking thrusting during this time. The youngest AHe ages (5-2 Ma) and highest erosion rates are located in the eastern and western extremities of the Precordillera and indicate that recent denudation is concentrated at its structural boundaries. Moreover, synchronous rapid Pliocene cooling of the Frontal Cordillera, Eastern Precordillera, and Sierra del Valle Fértil was coeval with initiation of basement-involved faulting in the foreland. Detrital zircon U-Pb geochronology from the ca. 16-8.1 Ma Bermejo foreland basin strata suggests fluvial connectivity westward beyond the Frontal Cordillera to the Main Cordillera and Coast Range followed by an important shift in sediment provenance at ca. 10 Ma. At this time, we suggest that a substantial decrease in Permo-Triassic igneous sources in the Frontal Cordillera and concurrent increase in recycled zircons signatures of Paleozoic strata are best explained by uplift and erosion of the Precordillera during widening of the thrust-belt. Bedrock thermochronology and modeling indicate a 2-6 Myr lag time between faulting-related cooling in the hinterland and the detrital record of deformation in the foreland basin, suggesting that for tectonically active semi-arid settings, bedrock cooling may be more sensitive to onset of faulting. We suggest that high erosion rates in the Frontal Cordillera and Eastern Precordillera are associated with increased interplate coupling during shallowing of the

  9. Change in maximal fat oxidation in response to different regimes of periodized high-intensity interval training (HIIT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astorino, Todd A; Edmunds, Ross M; Clark, Amy; Gallant, Rachael; King, Leesa; Ordille, Gina M; Heath, Brendyn; Montell, Matthew; Bandong, Jason

    2017-04-01

    Increased capacity for fat oxidation (FatOx) is demonstrated in response to chronic endurance training as well as high-intensity interval training (HIIT). This study examined changes in maximal fat oxidation (MFO) in response to 20 sessions of periodized HIIT in an attempt to identify if various regimes of HIIT similarly augment capacity for FatOx. Thirty-nine habitually active men and women (mean age and VO 2 max = 22.5 ± 4.4 year and 40.0 ± 5.6 mL/kg/min) completed training and 32 men and women with similar physical activity and fitness level served as non-exercising controls (CON). Training consisted of ten sessions of progressive low-volume HIIT on the cycle ergometer after which participants completed an additional ten sessions of sprint interval training (SIT), high-volume HIIT, or periodized HIIT, whose assignment was randomized. Before and throughout training, MFO, FatOx, and carbohydrate oxidation (CHOOx) were assessed during progressive cycling to exhaustion. Compared to CON, there was no effect of HIIT on MFO (p = 0.11). Small increases (p = 0.03) in FatOx were evident in response to HIIT leading to an additional 4.3 g of fat oxidized, although this value may not be clinically meaningful. Our results refute the widely reported increases in capacity for FatOx demonstrated with HIIT, which is likely due to marked day-to-day variability in determinations of MFO and exercise fat oxidation as well as the heterogeneity of our sample.

  10. Study of recent changes in sedimentation regime inside Cienfuegos Cuban bay, using 210Pb and 137Cs as tracers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso Hernandez, C.M.; Diaz Asencio, M.; Munnoz Caravaca, A.; Delfanti, R.; Papucci, C.

    2001-01-01

    Cienfuegos Bay is a semi closed bay with a surface area of 90 km2 and an average depth of 14m, connected to the Caribbean Sea by a narrow channel of about 3 km long. The bay is divided in two well defined hydro graphic cells, due to the presence of a submerged ridge about 1m below the water surface. The northern cell receives most of the anthropic impact from the outfall of Cienfuegos city, industrial pole in the country, and the fluvial supply of Damuji and Salado rivers. The southern cell receives a lower anthropic impact from the Caonao and Arimao river inputs. Part of this southern cell is a natural protected park, which represents a niche of migratory birds and marine species in conservation status.The bay represents the most important natural resource in the province, due to fishing activities, maritime transport, tourism industry, and natural parks. In the last three decades, deleterious ecological signers in the area have been observed. Declining of biodiversity in the ecosystem, bethonic communities' movement, reduction of size and capture levels of commercial marine species, erosion of coastline, could be associated with changes of sedimentation regime in the bay. The distribution of 210Pb, 137Cs in sediments provide, insight into the sedimentation processes in the last 100 years. The main goal of the present study was the application of 210Pb, 137Cs dating techniques to estimate the recent sedimentation rates in the bay. Two sediment cores, (S and N) have been collected in 1999 using a gravity corer. The lengths of the cores were 0.93m. The cores were extruded and sliced immediately in 1.5cm intervals. Aliquots of 5g of each core sections were used for complementary analyses. The remaining parts were dried and placed in standard geometry for the determination of 210Pb and 137Cs activities, by g spectrometry with an hyper pure Germanium detector coupled with multichannel analyzer. Both core profiles show that important environmental changes have been

  11. Assessment of dam construction impact on hydrological regime changes in lowland river – A case of study: the Stare Miasto reservoir located on the Powa River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sojka Mariusz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the presented research is analysis and assessment of the Stare Miasto reservoir impact on the hydrological regime changes of the Powa River. The reservoir was built in 2006 and is located in the central part of Poland. The total area of inundation in normal conditions is 90.68 ha and its capacity is 2.159 mln m3. Hydrological regime alteration of the Powa River is analysed on the basis of daily flows from the Posoka gauge station observed during period 1974–2014. Assessment of hydrological regime changes is carried out on the basis of Range of Variability Approach (RVA method. All calculations are made by means of Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA software version 7.1.0.10. The analysis shows that the Stare Miasto reservoir has a moderate impact on hydrological regime of the Powa River. Construction of the reservoir has positive effect on stability of minimal flows, which are important for protection of river ecosystems. The results obtained indicate that the Stare Miasto reservoir reduces a spring peak flow and enables to moderate control of floods.

  12. Analysis of historical forest fire regime in Madrid region (1984-2010) and its relation with land-use/land-cover changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Nieto, Israel; Martín, María del Pilar; Salas, Francisco Javier; Gallardo, Marta

    2013-04-01

    Understanding the interaction between natural and socio-economic factors that determine fire regime is essential to make accurate projections and impact assessments. However, this requires having accurate historical, systematic, homogeneous and spatially explicit information on fire occurrence. Fire databases usually have serious limitations in this regard; therefore other sources of information, such as remote sensing, have emerged as alternatives to generate optimal fire maps on various spatial and temporal scales. Several national and international projects work in order to generate information to study the factors that determine the current fire regime and its future evolution. This work is included in the framework of the project "Forest fires under climate, social and economic Changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the World" (FUME http://www.fumeproject.eu), which aims to study the changes and factors related to fire regimes through time to determine the potential impacts on vegetation in Mediterranean regions and concrete steps to address future risk scenarios. We analyzed the changes in the fire regime in Madrid region (Spain) in the past three decades (1984-2010) and its relation to land use changes. We identified and mapped fires that have occurred in the region during those years using Landsat satellite images by combining digital techniques and visual analysis. The results show a clear cyclical behaviour of the fire, with years of high incidence (as 1985, 2000 and 2003, highlighted by the number of fires and the area concerned, over 2000 ha) followed by another with a clear occurrence decrease. At the same time, we analyzed the land use changes that have occurred in Madrid region between the early 80s and mid-2000s using as reference the CORINE Land-cover maps (1990, 2000 and 2006) and the Vegetation and Land Use map of the Community of Madrid, 1982. We studied the relationship between fire regimes and observed land

  13. Vulnerability and Resilience of Temperate Forest Landscapes to Broad-Scale Deforestation in Response to Changing Fire Regimes and Altered Post-Fire Vegetation Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepley, A. J.; Veblen, T. T.; Perry, G.; Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.

    2015-12-01

    In the face of on-going climatic warming and land-use change, there is growing concern that temperate forest landscapes could be near a tipping point where relatively small changes to the fire regime or altered post-fire vegetation dynamics could lead to extensive conversion to shrublands or savannas. To evaluate vulnerability and resilience to such conversion, we develop a simple model based on three factors we hypothesize to be key in predicting temperate forest responses to changing fire regimes: (1) the hazard rate (i.e., the probability of burning in the next year given the time since the last fire) in closed-canopy forests, (2) the hazard rate for recently-burned, open-canopy vegetation, and (3) the time to redevelop canopy closure following fire. We generate a response surface representing the proportions of the landscape potentially supporting closed-canopy forest and non-forest vegetation under nearly all combinations of these three factors. We then place real landscapes on this response surface to assess the type and magnitude of changes to the fire regime that would drive extensive forest loss. We show that the deforestation of much of New Zealand that followed initial human colonization and the introduction of a new ignition source ca. 750 years ago was essentially inevitable due to the slow rate of forest recovery after fire and the high flammability of post-fire vegetation. In North America's Pacific Northwest, by contrast, a predominantly forested landscape persisted despite two periods of widespread burning in the recent past due in large part to faster post-fire forest recovery and less pronounced differences in flammability between forests and the post-fire vegetation. We also assess the factors that could drive extensive deforestation in other regions to identify where management could reduce this potential and to guide field and modeling work to better understand the responses and ecological feedbacks to changing fire regimes.

  14. Competition Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danilo Icaza Ortiz

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a review of the competition regime works of various authors, published under the auspices of the University of the Hemispheres and the Corporation for Studies and Publications. Analyzes the structure, the general concepts, case law taken for development. Includes comments on the usefulness of this work for the study of competition law and the contribution to the lawyers who want to practice in this branch of economic law.

  15. Shaping public finance accounting and budgeting system in accordance with political regime radical change: evolution not revolution in Poland 1918-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wojciech Nowak

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In the wake of the 2007–2008 financial crisis, long-term tendencies to enhance public sector structures, mechanisms, and methods of accountability seemed to increase, at least within the EU. This crisis afflict- ed Poland to a lesser degree, and the changes occurring in the Polish public sector didn’t come from it directly. Their causes have their roots in the need to reduce public debt and further adapt to the systems and standards of the Eurosphere. These changes have taken place in the context of unique historical transformations from the political regime of a market economy before World War II to the post World War II political regime of a centrally planned economy, and then from this political regime of centrally planned economy to the 21st century market economy. Historical and theoretical perspectives have been adopted. The results of our deliberations point out that the public finance sector change is of an evolu- tionary character rather than a revolutionary one. In addition, the evolution determinants and tempos come from the socio-political environment. The issue undertaken in this paper is of the character of pri- mary research, but the form of the paper is closer to a scientific essay than a research paper.

  16. A large-scale simulation of climate change effects on flood regime - A case study for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.; Kao, S. C.; Kalyanapu, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    The damage and cost of flooding are continuously increasing due to climate change and variability, which compels the development and advance of global flood hazard models. However, due to computational expensiveness, evaluation of large-scale and high-resolution flood regime remains a challenge. The objective of this research is to use a coupled modeling framework that consists of a dynamically downscaled suite of eleven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, a distributed hydrologic model called DHSVM, and a computational-efficient 2-dimensional hydraulic model called Flood2D-GPU to study the impacts of climate change on flood regime in the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin. Downscaled meteorologic forcings for 40 years in the historical period (1966-2005) and 40 years in the future period (2011-2050) were used as inputs to drive the calibrated DHSVM to generate annual maximum flood hydrographs. These flood hydrographs along with 30-m resolution digital elevation and estimated surface roughness were then used by Flood2D-GPU to estimate high-resolution flood depth, velocities, duration, and regime. Preliminary results for the Conasauga river basin (an upper subbasin within ACT) indicate that seven of the eleven climate projections show an average increase of 25 km2 in flooded area (between historic and future projections). Future work will focus on illustrating the effects of climate change on flood duration and area for the entire ACT basin.

  17. Time varying moments, regime switch, and crisis warning: The birth-death process with changing transition probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yinan; Chen, Ping

    2014-06-01

    The sub-prime crisis in the U.S. reveals the limitation of diversification strategy based on mean-variance analysis. A regime switch and a turning point can be observed using a high moment representation and time-dependent transition probability. Up-down price movements are induced by interactions among agents, which can be described by the birth-death (BD) process. Financial instability is visible by dramatically increasing 3rd to 5th moments one-quarter before and during the crisis. The sudden rising high moments provide effective warning signals of a regime-switch or a coming crisis. The critical condition of a market breakdown can be identified from nonlinear stochastic dynamics. The master equation approach of population dynamics provides a unified theory of a calm and turbulent market.

  18. Matter accumulation and changes of assimilation product transport and carbohydrate regime in barley plants as induced by infection with Puccinia striiformis West

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schubert, J. (Akademie der Landwirtschaftswissenschaften der DDR, Aschersleben. Inst. fuer Phytopathologie)

    1982-01-01

    Accumulation of nuclides (/sup 32/P, /sup 14/C), /sup 14/CO/sub 2/ assimilation and /sup 14/C transport were studied in several barley cultivars differing in their resistance to yellow rust. Increased matter accumulation was found in the rust pustules. Mycelium was proved by means of autoradiography. Infection causes changes with regard to /sup 14/CO/sub 2/ assimilation, carbohydrate regime and transport of /sup 14/C assimilation products. Certain relationships exist between these changes and plant resistance to yellow rust. During germination the rust uredospores release substances, particularly amino acids, to be transported in the plant.

  19. THE INFLUENCED FLOW REGIMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gavril PANDI

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The influenced flow regimes. The presence and activities ofhumanity influences the uniform environmental system, and in this context, therivers water resources. In concordance with this, the natural runoff regime suffersbigger and deeper changes. The nature of these changes depending on the type anddegree of water uses. The multitude of the use cause different types of influence,whit different quantitative aspects. In the same time, the influences havequalitative connotations, too, regarding to the modifications of the yearly watervolume runoff. So the natural runoff regime is modified. After analyzing thedistribution laws of the monthly runoff, there have been differenced four types ofinfluenced runoff regimes. In the excess type the influenced runoff is bigger thanthe natural, continuously in the whole year. The deficient type is characterized byinverse rapports like the first type, in the whole year. In the sinusoidal type, theinfluenced runoff is smaller than the natural in the period when the water isretained in the lake reservoirs, and in the depletion period the situation inverts. Atthe irregular type the ratio between influenced and natural runoff is changeable ina random meaner monthly. The recognition of the influenced regime and the gradeof influence are necessary in the evaluation and analysis of the usable hydrologicalriver resources, in the flood defence activities, in the complex scheme of thehydrographic basins, in the environment design and so on.

  20. Plant interactions with changes in coverage of biological soil crusts and water regime in Mu Us Sandland, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Shuqin; Pan, Xu; Cui, Qingguo; Hu, Yukun; Ye, Xuehua; Dong, Ming

    2014-01-01

    Plant interactions greatly affect plant community structure. Dryland ecosystems are characterized by low amounts of unpredictable precipitation as well as by often having biological soil crusts (BSCs) on the soil surface. In dryland plant communities, plants interact mostly as they compete for water resources, and the direction and intensity of plant interaction varies as a function of the temporal fluctuation in water availability. Since BSCs influence water redistribution to some extent, a greenhouse experiment was conducted to test the hypothesis that the intensity and direction of plant interactions in a dryland plant community can be modified by BSCs. In the experiment, 14 combinations of four plant species (Artemisia ordosica, Artemisia sphaerocephala, Chloris virgata and Setaria viridis) were subjected to three levels of coverage of BSCs and three levels of water supply. The results show that: 1) BSCs affected plant interaction intensity for the four plant species: a 100% coverage of BSCs significantly reduced the intensity of competition between neighboring plants, while it was highest with a 50% coverage of BSCs in combination with the target species of A. sphaerocephala and C. virgata; 2) effects of the coverage of BSCs on plant interactions were modified by water regime when the target species were C. virgata and S. viridis; 3) plant interactions were species-specific. In conclusion, the percent coverage of BSCs affected plant interactions, and the effects were species-specific and could be modified by water regimes. Further studies should focus on effects of the coverage of BSCs on plant-soil hydrological processes.

  1. AN ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF THE CURRENCY REGIME CHANGE SHOCK ON THE EXTERNAL EQUILIBRIUM OF SOME NEW EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CAMELIA MILEA

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In the context of globalization and regionalization, we consider to be important an analysis of the asymmetries from the balances of payments of the member states of the European Union (EU. The propagation of a shock determines different effects in the member states of the European Union, due to the existence of some heterogeneous elements in the structure of these economies. Such a situation implies the risk of occurrence of divergences between the member states regarding the joint decisions with impact on the economic development and the external equilibrium. The article aims at providing a theoretical analysis of the way a shock considered by the authors as being representative affects the current account balance of some countries with different economic characteristics, at least in terms of the foreign exchange regime. The theoretical analysis is followed by an empirical analysis of two European Union countries that have undergone the shock of the exchange rate regime shift generated by the entry into ERM II (Exchange Rate Mechanism II. Our research aims at showing the way in which this shock has been reflected upon the balance of the current account, and if the change of the exchange rate regime has been beneficial or not for the economies analysed. The article is based on wider research studies concerning the matters of external equilibrium, asymmetric shocks and European integration, and which have been developed by the authors during the last three years.

  2. Arctic circulation regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L

    2015-10-13

    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. © 2015 The Authors.

  3. Germany: Changes in the radiation protection regime after implementation of the EURATOM Basic Standards and corresponding amendment of German law

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peinsipp, N.

    1997-01-01

    The EURATOM Directive 96/29 of the EU Council is the basis for convergence of national radiation protection regimes towards an EU-wide Common system. The starting position looks fine: Despite the sometimes considerable divergence in political approaches to the use of atomic energy in the various EU Member States and not withstanding the higher number of Member States represented in the Council, the EURATOM Directive was passed by unanimous vote. This is primarily due to the excellent reputation of the ICRP and trust in its contributed draft proposals, so that acceptance of major contents of the Directive was not a problem. The contribution here, based on a lecture held at the Summer School for radiation protection in June 1997 in Berlin, summarizes the legal and other effects arising from transformation of the Directive and Basic Standards into German law. (orig./CB) [de

  4. Plant interactions with changes in coverage of biological soil crusts and water regime in Mu Us Sandland, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuqin Gao

    Full Text Available Plant interactions greatly affect plant community structure. Dryland ecosystems are characterized by low amounts of unpredictable precipitation as well as by often having biological soil crusts (BSCs on the soil surface. In dryland plant communities, plants interact mostly as they compete for water resources, and the direction and intensity of plant interaction varies as a function of the temporal fluctuation in water availability. Since BSCs influence water redistribution to some extent, a greenhouse experiment was conducted to test the hypothesis that the intensity and direction of plant interactions in a dryland plant community can be modified by BSCs. In the experiment, 14 combinations of four plant species (Artemisia ordosica, Artemisia sphaerocephala, Chloris virgata and Setaria viridis were subjected to three levels of coverage of BSCs and three levels of water supply. The results show that: 1 BSCs affected plant interaction intensity for the four plant species: a 100% coverage of BSCs significantly reduced the intensity of competition between neighboring plants, while it was highest with a 50% coverage of BSCs in combination with the target species of A. sphaerocephala and C. virgata; 2 effects of the coverage of BSCs on plant interactions were modified by water regime when the target species were C. virgata and S. viridis; 3 plant interactions were species-specific. In conclusion, the percent coverage of BSCs affected plant interactions, and the effects were species-specific and could be modified by water regimes. Further studies should focus on effects of the coverage of BSCs on plant-soil hydrological processes.

  5. Assessment of climate change impact on river flow regimes in The Red River Delta, Vietnam – A case study of the Nhue-Day River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phan Cao Duong

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Global warming has caused dramatic changes in regional climate variability, particularly regarding fluctuations in temperature and rainfall. Thus, it is predicted that river flow regimes will be altered accordingly. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of modeling such changes by simulating discharge using the HEC-HMS model. The precipitation was projected using super-high resolution multiple climate models (20 km resolution with newly updated emission scenarios as the input for the HEC-HMS model for flow analysis at the Red River Basin in the northern area of Vietnam. The findings showed that climate change impact on the river flow regimes tend towards a decrease in the dry season and a longer duration of flood flow. A slight runoff reduction is simulated for November while a considerable runoff increase is modeled for July and August amounting to 30% and 25%, respectively. The discharge scenarios serve as a basis for water managers to develop suitable adaptation methods and responses on the river basin scale.

  6. Tunable optical switching in the near-infrared spectral regime by employing plasmonic nanoantennas containing phase change materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savaliya, Priten B; Thomas, Arun; Dua, Rishi; Dhawan, Anuj

    2017-10-02

    We propose the design of switchable plasmonic nanoantennas (SPNs) that can be employed for optical switching in the near-infrared regime. The proposed SPNs consist of nanoantenna structures made up of a plasmonic metal (gold) such that these nanoantennas are filled with a switchable material (vanadium dioxide). We compare the results of these SPNs with inverted SPN structures that consist of gold nanoantenna structures surrounded by a layer of vanadium dioxide (VO 2 ) on their outer surface. These nanoantennas demonstrate switching of electric-field intensity enhancement (EFIE) between two states (On and Off states), which can be induced thermally, optically or electrically. The On and Off states of the nanoantennas correspond to the metallic and semiconductor states, respectively of the VO 2 film inside or around the nanoantennas, as the VO 2 film exhibits phase transition from its semiconductor state to the metallic state upon application of thermal, optical, or electrical energy. We employ finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) simulations to demonstrate switching in the EFIE for four different SPN geometries - nanorod-dipole, bowtie, planar trapezoidal toothed log-periodic, and rod-disk - and compare their near-field distributions for the On and Off states of the SPNs. We also demonstrate that the resonance wavelength of the EFIE spectra gets substantially modified when these SPNs switch between the two states.

  7. 'CANDLE' burnup regime after LWR regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sekimoto, Hiroshi; Nagata, Akito

    2008-01-01

    CANDLE (Constant Axial shape of Neutron flux, nuclide densities and power shape During Life of Energy producing reactor) burnup strategy can derive many merits. From safety point of view, the change of excess reactivity along burnup is theoretically zero, and the core characteristics, such as power feedback coefficients and power peaking factor, are not changed along burnup. Application of this burnup strategy to neutron rich fast reactors makes excellent performances. Only natural or depleted uranium is required for the replacing fuels. About 40% of natural or depleted uranium undergoes fission without the conventional reprocessing and enrichment. If the LWR produced energy of X Joules, the CANDLE reactor can produce about 50X Joules from the depleted uranium left at the enrichment facility for the LWR fuel. If we can say LWRs have produced energy sufficient for full 20 years, we can produce the energy for 1000 years by using the CANDLE reactors with depleted uranium. We need not mine any uranium ore, and do not need reprocessing facility. The burnup of spent fuel becomes 10 times. Therefore, the spent fuel amount per produced energy is also reduced to one-tenth. The details of the scenario of CANDLE burnup regime after LWR regime will be presented at the symposium. (author)

  8. From health plan companies to international insurance companies: changes in the accumulation regime and repercussions on the healthcare system in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligia Bahia

    Full Text Available Abstract: The concentration and internationalization of health plan companies in Brazil gave them a clearly financial face. Based on the need to understand the health care industry's capital accumulation patterns, the current study examines health plan companies' expansion strategies through the classification of their supply and demand characteristics by recent historical periods and an analysis of recent shareholding trends in one of the leading corporations in the Brazilian health care industry. The 1960s to 2000s witnessed changes in the scale of demands for health plans and adherence by companies to long-term accumulation strategies. Beginning in the early 21st century, changes in the shareholding structures of the largest Brazilian company, consistent with the financialization of its accumulation regime, resulted in the rapid multiplication of its capital. Deepening segmentation of the health care system in a context marked by the downturn in the national economy challenges the preservation of public subsidies for private health plans.

  9. Impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and water resources management of the Koshi River Basin, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laxmi Prasad Devkota

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The study found that climate change does not pose major threat on average water availability. However, temporal flow variations are expected to increase in the future. The magnitude of projected flow for given return periods, however, strongly depends on the climate model run considered. The ECHAM05 results show higher flow changes than those estimated from the HADCM3 outputs. A relation was derived to estimate projected flood flow as a function of return period and flow estimated from historical series. Amidst the uncertainties, these predictions provide reasonable insight for re-consideration of design standards or design values of hydraulic structures under climate change.

  10. The altered ecology of Lake Christina: A record of regime shifts, land-use change, and management from a temperate shallow lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theissen, Kevin M.; Hobbs, William O.; Hobbs, Joy M. Ramstack; Zimmer, Kyle D.; Domine, Leah M.; Cotner, James B.; Sugita, Shinya

    2012-01-01

    We collected two sediment cores and modern submerged aquatic plants and phytoplankton from two sub-basins of Lake Christina, a large shallow lake in west-central Minnesota, and used stable isotopic and elemental proxies from sedimentary organic matter to explore questions about the pre- and post-settlement ecology of the lake. The two morphologically distinct sub-basins vary in their sensitivities to internal and external perturbations offering different paleoecological information. The record from the shallower and much larger western sub-basin reflects its strong response to internal processes, while the smaller and deeper eastern sub-basin record primarily reflects external processes including important post-settlement land-use changes in the area. A significant increase in organic carbon accumulation (3–4 times pre-settlement rates) and long-term trends in δ 13 C, organic carbon to nitrogen ratios (C/N), and biogenic silica concentrations shows that primary production has increased and the lake has become increasingly phytoplankton-dominated in the post-settlement period. Significant shifts in δ 15 N values reflect land-clearing and agricultural practices in the region and support the idea that nutrient inputs have played an important role in triggering changes in the trophic status of the lake. Our examination of hydroclimatic data for the region over the last century suggests that natural forcings on lake ecology have diminished in their importance as human management of the lake increased in the mid-1900s. In the last 50 years, three chemical biomanipulations have temporarily shifted the lake from the turbid, algal-dominated condition into a desired clear water regime. Two of our proxies (δ 13 C and BSi) measured from the higher resolution eastern basin record responded significantly to these known regime shifts. -- Highlights: ► We explore the sediment geochemistry from Lake Christina's two distinct sub-basins. ► Our geochemical data show

  11. Substituting HCFC-22 for HFC-410A: an environmental impact trade-off between the ozone depletion and climate change regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.; Fang, X.; Zhang, J.

    2015-12-01

    After the phase-out of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) as ozone-depleting substances pursuant to the requirements of the Montreal Protocol, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are worldwide used as substitutes although the bulk of them are potent greenhouse gases (GHGs). Therefore, the alternation may bring side effect on global climate change. The trade-off of its environmental impacts between the ozone depletion and climate change regimes necessitates a quantification of the past and future consumption and emissions of both the original HCFCs and their alternative HFCs. Now a dilemma arise in China's RAC industry that HCFC-22, which has an ozone-depleting potential (ODP) of 0.055, has been replaced by HFC-410A, which is a blended potent GHG from respective 50% HFC-32 and HFC-125 with a global warming potential (GWP) of 1923.5. Here, we present our results of estimates of consumption and emissions of HCFC-22 and HFC-410A from 1994 to 2050. Historic emissions of HCFC-22 contributed to global total HCFCs by 4.0% (3.0%-5.6%) ODP-weighted. Projection under a baseline scenario shows future accumulative emissions of HFC-410A make up 5.9%-11.0% of global GWP-weighted HFCs emissions, and its annual contribution to national overall CO2 emissions can be 5.5% in 2050. This makes HCFC-22 and HFC-410A emissions of significant importance in ozone depletion and climate change regimes. Two mitigation scenarios were set to assess the mitigation performance under the North America Proposal and an accelerated schedule. In practice of international environmental agreement, "alternative to alternative" should be developed to avoid regrettable alternations.

  12. The effects of changing wind regimes on the development of blowouts in the coastal dunes of The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jungerius, P.D.; Witter, J.V.; van Boxel, J.H.

    1991-01-01

    Blowouts are the main features of aeolian activity in many dune areas. To assess the impact of future climatic change on the geomorphological processes prevailing in a dune landscape it is essential to understand blowout formation and identify the meteorological parameters which are important. The

  13. Climate change impact assessment on various components of the hydrological regime of the Malše river basin

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Němečková, Soňa; Slámová, Romana; Šípek, Václav

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 59, č. 2 (2011), s. 131-143 ISSN 0042-790X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300600901; GA MŽP(CZ) SP/1A6/151/07 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : climate change * hydrological modelling * hydrological cycle Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 0.340, year: 2011

  14. Changes of climate regimes during the last millennium and the twenty-first century simulated by the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei; Feng, Song; Liu, Chang; Chen, Jie; Chen, Jianhui; Chen, Fahu

    2018-01-01

    This study examines the shifts in terrestrial climate regimes using the Köppen-Trewartha (K-T) climate classification by analyzing the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) simulations for the period 850-2005 and CESM Medium Ensemble (CESM-ME), CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and CESM with fixed aerosols Medium Ensemble (CESM-LE_FixA) simulations for the period 1920-2080. We compare K-T climate types from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (950-1250) with the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1550-1850), from present day (PD) (1971-2000) with the last millennium (LM) (850-1850), and from the future (2050-2080) with the LM in order to place anthropogenic changes in the context of changes due to natural forcings occurring during the last millennium. For CESM-LME, we focused on the simulations with all forcings, though the impacts of individual forcings (e.g., solar activities, volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gases, aerosols and land use changes) were also analyzed. We found that the climate types changed slightly between the MCA and the LIA due to weak changes in temperature and precipitation. The climate type changes in PD relative to the last millennium have been largely driven by greenhouse gas-induced warming, but anthropogenic aerosols have also played an important role on regional scales. At the end of the twenty-first century, the anthropogenic forcing has a much greater effect on climate types than the PD. Following the reduction of aerosol emissions, the impact of greenhouse gases will further promote global warming in the future. Compared to precipitation, changes in climate types are dominated by greenhouse gas-induced warming. The large shift in climate types by the end of this century suggests possible wide-spread redistribution of surface vegetation and a significant change in species distributions.

  15. Evaluating effects of potential changes in streamflow regime on fish and aquatic-invertebrate assemblages in the New Jersey Pinelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennen, Jonathan G.; Riskin, Melissa L.

    2010-01-01

    Changes in water demand associated with population growth and changes in land-use practices in the Pinelands region of southern New Jersey will have a direct effect on stream hydrology. The most pronounced and measurable hydrologic effect is likely to be flow reductions associated with increasing water extraction. Because water-supply needs will continue to grow along with population in the Pinelands area, the goal of maintaining a sustainable balance between the availability of water to protect existing aquatic assemblages while conserving the surficial aquifer for long-term support of human water use needs to be addressed. Although many aquatic fauna have shown resilience and resistance to short-term changes in flows associated with water withdrawals, sustained effects associated with ongoing water-development processes are not well understood. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey sampled forty-three 100-meter-long stream reaches during high- and low-flow periods across a designed hydrologic gradient ranging from small- (4.1 square kilometers (1.6 square miles)) to medium- (66.3 square kilometers (25.6 square miles)) sized Pinelands stream basins. This design, which uses basin size as a surrogate for water availability, provided an opportunity to evaluate the possible effects of potential variation in stream hydrology on fish and aquatic-invertebrate assemblage response in New Jersey Pinelands streams where future water extraction is expected based on known build-out scenarios. Multiple-regression models derived from extracted non-metric multidimensional scaling axis scores of fish and aquatic invertebrates indicate that some variability in aquatic-assemblage composition across the hydrologic gradient is associated with anthropogenic disturbance, such as urbanization, changes in stream chemistry, and concomitant changes in high-flow runoff patterns. To account for such underlying effects in the study models, any flow parameter or assemblage attribute that

  16. Climate Change Transforms Fire Regimes but Does not Eliminate Forest Carbon Sequestration in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henne, P. D.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Berryman, E.

    2017-12-01

    Annual area burned in the Rocky Mountains varies with climatic conditions. However, projecting long-term changes in wildfire presents an enduring challenge because climate also constrains vegetation and fuel availability. We combined an aridity-threshold fire model with the Landis-II dynamic landscape vegetation model (NECN extension) to project climate change impacts on vegetation, area burned, and ecosystem carbon balance in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). We developed a fire model that relates drought stress to area burned by quantifying an aridity threshold separating large and small years in 15 ecoregions in the Intermountain West. A significant positive correlation (r2 = 0.97) exists between mean fire-season aridity and ecoregion-specific aridity thresholds. We simulated vegetation and fire dynamics in the GYE at 250 m spatial resolution with Landis-II, using projections from five climate models and two emissions scenarios for the period 1980-2100 AD. We determined if each simulation year exceeded the regional aridity threshold, then randomly drew the number of fires and size of individual fires from fire-size distributions from large or small fire years. Burned area increases dramatically in most climate scenarios, especially after 2060, when most years exceed the aridity threshold. Productivity gains due to rising temperatures partially offset biomass lost to fire, but C stocks plateau or decline after 2060 in most simulations as burned area increases, and drought stress causes post-fire regeneration to decline at low elevations. However, species level changes (e.g. expansion by drought-tolerant Pseuodotsuga menziesii) help maintain productivity in sites where water becomes limiting. Fire-adapted Pinus contorta occupies less total area, but a greater proportion of remaining forests, and Picea engelmannii and Abies lasiocarpa significantly decline. Although fire and climate change will alter species distributions and forest structure, our results

  17. Mean sea level and change in the hydrological regime off Loviisa power plant around the year 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maelkki, P.; Voipio, A.

    1985-03-01

    On the request of Imatran Voima Oy, the Institute of Marine Research has made an estimate on the future sea level off Loviisa Power Plant. The estimate is based on observationsof mean sea level in the Gulf of Finland. The stations used are Helsinki (observations since 1904) and Hamina (observations since 1928). A litterature review was made in order to estimate impact of climate change on environmental conditions. The results presented are mainly based on various estimates of meterorological Global Circulation Models (GCM). Their usefulness in the connection is briefly discussed

  18. One Health, One World—The Intersecting Legal Regimes of Trade, Climate Change, Food Security, Humanitarian Crises, and Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelli K. Garcia

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Today’s global health challenges require a multi-sectoral approach in which health is a fundamental value within global governance and international law. “One Health, One World” provides a unified, harmonious vision of global health governance that supports the wellbeing of humans and animals living in a clean and temperate environment. This article focuses on five legal regimes—trade law, food security law, environmental law, humanitarian law, and refugee law—that play a pivotal role in influencing health outcomes and are integral to achieving the One Health, One World vision. International trade, for example, opens markets not only to life-saving products such as vaccines, medicines, and medical equipment, but also to life-threatening products such as tobacco and asbestos. If strengthened and enforced, environmental law can decrease air and water pollution, major causes of death and disability. World hunger has been exacerbated by the global economic crisis and climate change, increasing the urgency for international law to enhance food security. Humanitarian law must similarly be strengthened to protect civilians adequately as the nature of warfare continues to change. Refugee law plays a pivotal role in protecting the health of deeply vulnerable people who lack food, shelter, and social stability. Higher standards and more effective compliance are necessary for international law to realize its full potential to safeguard the world's population.

  19. Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long-lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization, and fire regime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Syphard, Alexandra D; Franklin, Janet; Anderson, Kurt E; Akçakaya, H Resit; Mizerek, Toni; Winchell, Clark; Regan, Helen M

    2014-08-01

    Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long-lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire-prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean-type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long-lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land-use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land-use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional

  20. Bridging the Gap between Scientific and Indigenous knowledge to Better Understand Social Impacts of Changing Rainfall Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, A. H.; Joachim, L.; Zhu, X.; Hammer, C.; Harris, M.; Griggs, D.

    2011-12-01

    The Murray-Darling Basin incorporates Australia's three longest rivers and is important for an agricultural industry worth more than $9 billion per annum, a rich biodiversity of habitat and species, and the very life of its traditional owners. The complex and sometimes enigmatic relationships between modes of variability and Australian regional rainfall distribution means that reliable projections of future water availability remain highly uncertain. Persistent drought, with associated heat stress and high fire danger, and episodic flooding rains present further challenges. Indeed, recent extremes likely herald a tipping point for the communities and ecosystems that rely on the river system. The Barmah-Millewa region in the Murray-Darling Basin is the heart of Yorta Yorta Traditional Tribal Lands. The Yorta Yorta continue to assert their inherent rights to country and have shown through oral, documentary and material evidence, that their social, spiritual, economic and cultural links with country have never been broken. Current water policy and practice, highly contested community consultation processes, cross-border governance issues and a changing social landscape create in this region a microcosm for understanding the complex demands of economic, environmental and cultural security along the Murray-Darling Basin as the climate changes. New approaches to bridging the gap between scientific and Indigenous epistemologies have emerged in recent years, including for example ecosystem-based adaptation (Vignola et al. 2009) and the analysis of cultural water flows (Weir 2010). The potential for innovation using these approaches has informed a study that investigates how the deep knowledge of country of the Yorta Yorta people can be combined with state of the art climate science to develop a better understanding of the competing demands on water resources in the Barmah-Millewa region now and in the future. An important dimension of this collaborative work with the Yorta

  1. Metal Deposition Along the Peru Margin Since the Last Glacial Maximum: Evidence For Regime Change at \\sim 6ka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, J.; Cleaveland, L.; Herbert, T.; Altabet, M.

    2004-12-01

    The Peru Margin upwelling zone plays a key role in regulating marine biogeochemical cycles, particularly the fate of nitrate. High biological productivity and low oxygen waters fed into the oxygen minimum zone result in intense denitrification in the modern system, the consequences of which are global in nature. It has been very difficult, however, to study the paleoclimatic history of this region because of the poor preservation of carbonate in Peru Margin sediments. Here we present records of trace metal accumulation from two cores located in the heart of the suboxic zone off the central Peru coast. Chronology comes from multiple AMS 14C dates on the alkenone fraction of the sediment, as well as correlation using major features of the \\delta 15N record in each core. ODP Site 1228 provides a high resolution, continuous sediment record from the Recent to about 14ka, while gravity core W7706-41k extends the record to the Last Glacial Maximum. Both cores were sampled at a 100 yr resolution, then analyzed for % N, \\delta 15N, alkenones, and trace metal concentration. Analysis of redox-sensitive metals (Mo and V) alongside metals associated with changes in productivity (Ni and Zn) provides perspective on the evolution of the upwelling system and distinguishes the two major factors controlling the intensity of the oxygen minimum zone. The trace metal record exhibits a notable increase in the intensity and variability of low oxygen waters and productivity beginning around 6ka and extending to the present. Within this most recent 6ka interval, the data suggest fluctuations in oxygenation and productivity occur on 1000 yr timescales. Our core records, therefore, suggest that the Peru Margin upwelling system strengthened significantly during the mid to late Holocene.

  2. Multilateral trade measures in a post-2012 climate change regime? What can be taken from the Montreal Protocol and the WTO?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Zhongxiang

    2009-01-01

    The climate-trade nexus gains increasing attention as governments are taking great efforts to forge a post-2012 climate change regime to succeed the Kyoto Protocol. This raises the issues of the scope of trade-related measures and of when and how they could be used. This paper discusses how far trade-related measures should be incorporated in that context. Drawing on an analogy to the Montreal Protocol and comparing developing country's climate mitigation and adaptation needs with the funding available, the paper argues that such measures should initially be applied only among Annex I or II countries. To discipline the use of unilateral trade measures at the international level, the paper emphasizes a need to define comparable climate efforts. Moreover, the Lieberman-Warner bill in the US Senate-taken as a proxy for future US climate legislation-is assessed, and found to be neither effective nor likely to be WTO-consistent. The paper is concluded by arguing that, in order to encourage developing countries to do more to combat climate change, developed countries should focus on carrots. Sticks can be incorporated, but only if they are credible and realistic and serve as a useful supplement to push developing countries to take actions or adopt policies and measures earlier than would otherwise have been the case.

  3. Ecological Regime Shifts in Lake Kälksjön, Sweden, in Response to Abrupt Climate Change Around the 8.2 ka Cooling Event

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Randsalu-Wendrup, L.; Conley, D.J.; Snowball, I.

    2012-01-01

    . This study demonstrates that it is possible to detect, quantify and test for regime shifts in paleoecological data, and it highlights the need for high sampling resolution and precise chronological control. High-resolution paleoecological reconstructions of ecological regime shifts in response to climate...

  4. Emissions and removals from land-use, land use change and forestry activities in a post-Kyoto regime - quantitative analysis of a framework for reducing deforestation; Beruecksichtigung von Treibhausgasemissionen und -festlegungen durch Landnutzungsmassnahmen (LULUCF) im Post-Kioto-Regime - quantitative Analyse zur Einbeziehung von reduzierter Entwaldung in ein kuenftiges Klimaregime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herold, Anke; Scheffler, Margarethe [Oeko-Institut e.V., Freiburg (Germany); Cunha Zeri, Gisleine; Dietz, Johannes; Freibauer, Annette; Huettner, Michael; Mollicone, Danilo [Max-Planck Institut fuer Biogeochemie, Jena (Germany); Jung, Martina [ECOFYS GmbH, Koeln (Germany)

    2008-11-15

    Some developing countries (Papua New Guinea, Costa Rica and others) proposed to include emission reductions from reduced deforestation in a post-2012 climate regime. This proposal has gained broad support under the UNFCCC negotiations. This report aims at assessing the implications and implementation needs of a future international regime that provides compensation for reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries. This assessment includes an analysis of data availability for deforestation and forest area changes and related losses of biomass and GHG emissions, an attempt to quantify the relationship between deforestation drivers and deforestation rates; a detailed discussion of options related to the establishment of reference emission levels and accounting issues for reducing deforestation; an approximation of the possible magnitude of credits from a RED mechanism and a discussion of approaches to implement a compensation scheme for reducing emissions in a post-2012 climate regime. (orig.)

  5. From health plan companies to international insurance companies: changes in the accumulation regime and repercussions on the healthcare system in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahia, Ligia; Scheffer, Mario; Tavares, Leandro Reis; Braga, Iale Falleiros

    2016-11-03

    The concentration and internationalization of health plan companies in Brazil gave them a clearly financial face. Based on the need to understand the health care industry's capital accumulation patterns, the current study examines health plan companies' expansion strategies through the classification of their supply and demand characteristics by recent historical periods and an analysis of recent shareholding trends in one of the leading corporations in the Brazilian health care industry. The 1960s to 2000s witnessed changes in the scale of demands for health plans and adherence by companies to long-term accumulation strategies. Beginning in the early 21st century, changes in the shareholding structures of the largest Brazilian company, consistent with the financialization of its accumulation regime, resulted in the rapid multiplication of its capital. Deepening segmentation of the health care system in a context marked by the downturn in the national economy challenges the preservation of public subsidies for private health plans. Resumo: A concentração e internacionalização de empresas de planos de saúde no Brasil conferiram-lhes feição financeira. Considerando a necessidade de compreender os padrões de acumulação desse setor, o trabalho examina estratégias de expansão das empresas de planos de saúde por meio da periodização de atributos da oferta e demanda e exame da trajetória patrimonial recente de um dos grandes grupos do setor. Entre os anos 1960 e 2000, ocorreram alterações na escala das demandas por planos de saúde e adesão das empresas a estratégias de acumulação de longo prazo. A partir do século XXI, as alterações nas estruturas societárias da maior empresa brasileira, compatíveis com o regime de acumulação financeirizada, resultaram na multiplicação de seu capital em um curto intervalo de tempo. O aprofundamento da segmentação do sistema de saúde, em um contexto marcado pela desaceleração da economia, questiona a

  6. Resistance, Reinhabitation, and Regime Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruenewald, David

    2006-01-01

    How do individuals know when, and what, to resist? Alan Schoenfeld, in the March 2006 issue of "Educational Researcher," tells a story of resistance that all math educators, and all curriculum specialists, need to consider. Schoenfeld titled his story, "What Doesn't Work: The Challenge and Failure of the What Works Clearinghouse to Conduct…

  7. CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen SANDU (TODERASCU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The experience of recentyears showsthat it hasa fundamentalroleformation mechanismof the exchange rateinmacroeconomic stabilization. Global economiccrises, oil shockshave shownthe difficultyoffloatingsustainabilitybyparticipants in the system. EuropeanMonetary System, focused onconcertedfloatingcurrenciestoECU, was formedunder the conditionsin which somecountries have adoptedregional monetaryarrangements(EU countries, with suchbasescurrencyregimeshybridthat combinesspecific mechanismsto those offixedratefree floating. This paperaims to demonstratethe important role thatithasthe choice ofexchange rateregimeas abasic elementin thefoundationofmacroeconomic stabilizationinstruments. Consideredan expression of thestateof the domestic economyandinternationalcompetitiveness, the exchange rate is determined bya complex set ofexternal factorsorinternalstabilityisa prerequisite forthe crisis.

  8. Consequences of land use cover change and precipitation regimes on water quality in a tropical landscape: the case of São Paulo, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro Piffer, P.; Reverberi Tambosi, L.; Uriarte, M.

    2017-12-01

    One of the most pressing challenges faced by modern societies is ensuring a sufficient supply of water considering the ever-growing conflict between environmental conservation and expansion of agricultural and urban frontiers worldwide. Land use cover change have marked effects on natural landscapes, putting key watershed ecosystem services in jeopardy. We investigated the consequences of land use cover change and precipitation regimes on water quality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, a landscape that underwent major changes in past century. Water quality data collected bi-monthly between 2000 and 2014 from 229 water monitoring stations was analyzed together with 2011 land use cover maps. We focused on six water quality metrics (dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, turbidity, total dissolved solids and fecal coliforms) and used generalized linear mixed models to analyze the data. Models were built at two scales, the entire watershed and a 60 meters riparian buffer along the river network. Models accounted for 46-67% of the variance in water quality metrics and, apart from dissolved oxygen, which reflected land cover composition in riparian buffers, all metrics responded to land use at the watershed scale. Highly urbanized areas had low dissolved oxygen and high fecal coliforms, dissolved solids, phosphorus and nitrogen levels in streams. Pasture was associated with increases in turbidity, while sugarcane plantations significantly increased nitrogen concentrations. Watersheds with high forest cover had greater dissolved oxygen and lower turbidity. Silviculture plantations had little impact on water quality. Precipitation decreased dissolved oxygen and was associated with higher levels of turbidity, fecal coliforms and phosphorus. Results indicate that conversion of forest cover to other land uses had negative impacts on water quality in the study area, highlighting the need for landscape restoration to improve watersheds ecosystem services.

  9. Forecasting the evolution in the mixing regime of a deep subalpine lake under climate change scenarios through numerical modelling (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenocchi, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Sibilla, Stefano; Ciampittiello, Marzia; Dresti, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The impact of air temperature rise is eminent for the large deep lakes in the Italian subalpine district, climate change being caused there by both natural phenomena and anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) emissions. These oligomictic lakes are experiencing a decrease in the frequency of winter full turnover and an intensification of stability. As a result, hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations are decreasing and nutrients are accumulating in bottom water, with effects on the whole ecosystem functioning. Forecasting the future evolution of the mixing pattern is relevant to assess if a reduction in GHG releases would be able to revert such processes. The study focuses on Lake Maggiore, for which the thermal structure evolution under climate change in the 2016-2085 period was assessed through numerical simulations, performed with the General Lake Model (GLM). Different prospects of regional air temperature rise were considered, given by the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011. Multiple realisations were performed for each scenario to obtain robust statistical predictions, adopting random series of meteorological data produced with the Vector-Autoregressive Weather Generator (VG). Results show that a reversion in the increasing thermal stability would be possible only if global GHG emissions started to be reduced by 2020, allowing an equilibrium mixing regime to be restored by the end of the twenty-first century. Otherwise, persistent lack of complete-mixing, severe water warming and extensive effects on water quality are to be expected for the centuries to come. These projections can be extended to the other lakes in the subalpine district.

  10. Section 2: Case Studies of the Politics of Privatization: Bringing the Private into the Public--Changing the Rules of the Game and New Regime Politics in Philadelphia Public Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulkley, Katrina E.

    2007-01-01

    Substantial policy and political changes have resulted from a 2001 state takeover of the Philadelphia School District and the subsequent hiring of Paul Vallas as the district's new CEO. Using the lens of urban regime analysis, which emphasizes the importance of public and private actors in forming a governing coalition, this article analyzes the…

  11. Projecting the potential evapotranspiration by coupling different formulations and input data reliabilities: The possible uncertainty source for climate change impacts on hydrological regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Weiguang; Li, Changni; Xing, Wanqiu; Fu, Jianyu

    2017-12-01

    possible reason of discrepancies in uncertainty between three catchments was quantitatively discussed by the contribution analysis based on climatic elasticity method. This study can provide beneficial reference to comprehensively understand the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and thus improve the regional strategy for future water resource management.

  12. Increased Sensitivity of the Circadian System to Temporal Changes in the Feeding Regime of Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats - A Potential Role for Bmal2 in the Liver

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Polidarová, Lenka; Sládek, Martin; Nováková, Marta; Parkanová, Daniela; Sumová, Alena

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 9 (2013), e75690 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP303/11/0668 Institutional support: RVO:67985823 Keywords : circadian * clock gene * metabolism * liver * feeding regime * Bmal2 * spontaneously hypertensive rat Subject RIV: ED - Physiology Impact factor: 3.534, year: 2013

  13. The role of First Nations in oil and gas development under federal regulatory regimes: Options for change and lessons from New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, T. R. [Borden, Ladner, Gervais, LLP., Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    This thesis was prepared at the University of Ottawa in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Laws (LL.M.). It is included here in its entirety. It outlines the role played by First Nations under federal oil and gas regulatory regimes and makes recommendations designed to enable First Nations groups to participate in oil and gas development. A persuasive argument is made on legal and policy grounds for an active role for First Nations in oil and gas development within their traditional territories. This position is supported by a comprehensive analysis of three federal oil and gas regimes -- the Northern, Offshore and Indian Reserve regimes -- their legislative frameworks and recent developments in aboriginal jurisprudence and policy. Further support for the recommendations is adduced by comparing the Canadian situation with relevant contemporary resource management issues in New Zealand. The author recommends the immediate creation of a Consultation Model for a range of consultation processes that vary depending upon the nature of the issue. Over the longer term, development of First Nation Models is recommended. These models should be adjustable by careful monitoring of the successes and failures of First Nation oil and gas management regimes under Comprehensive Land Claim Agreements. It is suggested that internal capacity issues with respect to infrastructure and expertise must be addressed before First Nation groups can establish economically viable oil and gas models. [320 refs.].

  14. Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hughes, T.P.; Carpenter, S.; Rockstrom, J.; Scheffer, M.; Walker, B.

    2013-01-01

    Life on Earth has repeatedly displayed abrupt and massive changes in the past, and there is no reason to expect that comparable planetary-scale regime shifts will not continue in the future. Different lines of evidence indicate that regime shifts occur when the climate or biosphere transgresses a

  15. Accommodating human values in the climate regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosalind Cook

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The climate regime addresses one of the most important challenges facing humankind today. However, while the environmental and economic sides of the problem are well represented, it lacks the inclusion of social and human aspects. The human rights regime, in contrast, is a regime which has been established precisely to implement human values. This article ex-plains the problems of climate change in terms of human values and argues that some proce-dures from the human rights regime offer possibilities for improvement. It is submitted that through the inclusion of human rights instruments, such as individual communication, pro-gressive realisation and authoritative interpretation, the inclusion of human values into the climate regime will be facilitated. This article presents these instruments and discusses their potential for inclusion in the climate regime.

  16. Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundstrom, Shana M.; Eason, Tarsha; Nelson, R. John; Angeler, David G.; Barichievy, Chris; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Graham, Nicholas A.J.; Granholm, Dean; Gunderson, Lance; Knutson, Melinda; Nash, Kirsty L.; Spanbauer, Trisha; Stow, Craig A.; Allen, Craig R.

    2017-01-01

    Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory-based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (U.S. Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps and multivariate analyses such as nMDS and cluster analysis. We successfully detected spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change.

  17. Sustainable urban regime adjustments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quitzau, Maj-Britt; Jensen, Jens Stissing; Elle, Morten

    2013-01-01

    The endogenous agency that urban governments increasingly portray by making conscious and planned efforts to adjust the regimes they operate within is currently not well captured in transition studies. There is a need to acknowledge the ambiguity of regime enactment at the urban scale. This direc...

  18. Flux scaling: Ultimate regime

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Flux scaling: Ultimate regime. With the Nusselt number and the mixing length scales, we get the Nusselt number and Reynolds number (w'd/ν) scalings: and or. and. scaling expected to occur at extremely high Ra Rayleigh-Benard convection. Get the ultimate regime ...

  19. Changes in soil carbon and enzyme activity as a result of different long-term fertilization regimes in a greenhouse field.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Zhang

    Full Text Available In order to discover the advantages and disadvantages of different fertilization regimes and identify the best management practice of fertilization in greenhouse fields, soil enzyme activities involved in carbon (C transformations, soil chemical characteristics, and crop yields were monitored after long-term (20-year fertilization regimes, including no fertilizer (CK, 300 kg N ha-1 and 600 kg N ha-1 as urea (N1 and N2, 75 Mg ha-1 horse manure compost (M, and M with either 300 or 600 kg N ha-1 urea (MN1 and MN2. Compared with CK, fertilization increased crop yields by 31% (N2 to 69% (MN1. However, compared with CK, inorganic fertilization (especially N2 also caused soil acidification and salinization. In the N2 treatment, soil total organic carbon (TOC decreased from 14.1±0.27 g kg-1 at the beginning of the long-term experiment in 1988 to 12.6±0.11 g kg-1 (P<0.05. Compared to CK, N1 and N2 exhibited higher soil α-galactosidase and β-galactosidase activities, but lower soil α-glucosidase and β-glucosidase activities (P<0.05, indicating that inorganic fertilization had different impacts on these C transformation enzymes. Compared with CK, the M, MN1 and MN2 treatments exhibited higher enzyme activities, soil TOC, total nitrogen, dissolved organic C, and microbial biomass C and N. The fertilization regime of the MN1 treatment was identified as optimal because it produced the highest yields and increased soil quality, ensuring sustainability. The results suggest that inorganic fertilizer alone, especially in high amounts, in greenhouse fields is detrimental to soil quality.

  20. The Two Regimes of Postwar Shipping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Martin Jes; Tenold, Stig

    2014-01-01

    the bargaining that accompanied the shift from the national regime to the competitive regime. Specifically, we show that the new regime primarily accommodated the interests of private actors such as shipping companies, rather than the interests of the authorities and the trade unions.......The aim of this article is to illustrate the most important changes in the regulatory framework of the shipping sector from the 1960s to 2010, and to analyse the basis for, and effects of, these changes. In order to explain how the transformation has occurred, we use two traditional maritime...... nations—Denmark and Norway—as case studies. First, we introduce the two regimes of Danish and Norwegian shipping: ‘the national regime’ from the early 1960s to the mid-1970s; and ‘the competitive regime’, which was fully established by the middle of the 1990s and still persists. Then, we briefly sketch...

  1. Supply regimes in fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Max

    2006-01-01

    Supply in fisheries is traditionally known for its backward bending nature, owing to externalities in production. Such a supply regime, however, exist only for pure open access fisheries. Since most fisheries worldwide are neither pure open access, nor optimally managed, rather between the extremes......, the traditional understanding of supply regimes in fisheries needs modification. This paper identifies through a case study of the East Baltic cod fishery supply regimes in fisheries, taking alternative fisheries management schemes and mesh size limitations into account. An age-structured Beverton-Holt based bio......-economic supply model with mesh sizes is developed. It is found that in the presence of realistic management schemes, the supply curves are close to vertical in the relevant range. Also, the supply curve under open access with mesh size limitations is almost vertical in the relevant range, owing to constant...

  2. Evolution of magmatism from the uppermost cretaceous to Oligocene, and its relationship to changing tectonic regime, in the Inca de Oro-El Salvador area (Northern Chile)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornejo, Paula; Matthews, Stephen

    2001-01-01

    We present geochronological and petrological data for extrusive and intrusive rocks in the Inca de Oro and El Salvador sheets (in prep.), and the Potrerillos (Tomlinson et al., 1999) and Salar de Maricunga sheets (Cornejo et al., 1998), III Region, Chile (26 o -27 o S). Most of these data were collected as part of the SERNAGEOMIN regional mapping programme. Additionally, we include published data for El Salvador and Potrerillos districts (Cornejo et al., 1997; Marsh et al., 1997; Gustafson et al., 2001). The dataset includes K/Ar, Ar/Ar and U-Pb mineral ages, which have been carefully selected for quality. The area is underlain by Carboniferous-Permian granitic basement rocks, which are covered by Triassic to Early Upper Cretaceous volcanic and sedimentary successions, including both marine and continental sequences (Cornejo et al., 1993). The period studied in this paper includes extrusive and intrusive rocks of Maastrichtian to Oligocene age, which are of particular interest since they record the 'preparation' of the lithosphere prior to, during, and after the mid-Eocene Incaic deformation and associated porphyry copper event. Shortening in the early-upper Cretaceous (95-85Ma; e.g. Mpodozis and Ramos, 1989; Arevalo and Grocott, 2000) deformed large areas of northen Chile, and marked the transition from the dominance of intra-arc extension to that of shortening punctuated by periods of extension. We recognise seven tectono-magmatic periods from the uppermost Cretaceous to Oligocene, comprising a volcanic sedimentary event contemporaneous with an extensional tectonic regime in the Upper Cretaceous, associated with graben formation, followed by an important compressive event at the beginning of the Tertiary. The middle Paleocene was again dominated by voluminous volcanic activity (collapse calderas) in an extensional regime. During the lowest Eocene the magmatic activity in the area shows a gradual transition from pyroxene-bearing to amphibole-bearing lithologies

  3. Climate Change in China – The Development of China’s Climate Policy and Its Integration into a New International Post-Kyoto Climate Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Oberheitmann

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available According to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, global emissions of carbon dioxide have to be reduced by about 80 per cent by 2050 in order to stabilise the increase in global temperature at 2 to 2.4°C by 2100 compared with its pre-industrial level. An increase of only 2°C would bring about “acceptable” negative impacts on the eco-systems and the world economy. Without a reduction in CO2 emissions in China, however, it will be hard to achieve this goal. Currently, China is already responsible for about 50 per cent of the worldwide increase in CO2 emissions recorded over the past ten years. On the other hand, it is the industrialised countries that are mainly responsible for the greenhouse-gas emissions of earlier years. Taking the challenges of China’s economic growth, its impact on future CO2 emissions and the development of China’s climate policy into account, this article develops a new post-Kyoto regime based on cumulative per-capita emission rights.

  4. Cargo liability regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    There are at present at least three international regimes of maritime cargo liability in force in different countries of the world - the original Hague rules (1924), the updated version known as the Hague-Visby rules (1968, further amended 1979), and...

  5. Trust in regulatory regimes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Six, Frédérique; Verhoest, Koen

    2017-01-01

    Within political and administrative sciences generally, trust as a concept is contested, especially in the field of regulatory governance. This groundbreaking book is the first to systematically explore the role and dynamics of trust within regulatory regimes. Conceptualizing, mapping and analyzing

  6. East Asian welfare regime

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamson, Peter

    2017-01-01

    The paper asks if East Asian welfare regimes are still productivist and Confucian? And, have they developed public care policies? The literature is split on the first question but (mostly) confirmative on the second. Care has to a large, but insufficient extent, been rolled out in the region...

  7. What is the New Chinese Currency Regime?

    OpenAIRE

    Shah, Ajay; Zeileis, Achim; Patnaik, Ila

    2005-01-01

    The revaluation of the yuan in July 2005 was described by the Chinese central bank as a change in the currency regime, rather than merely a changed level of the exchange rate. The reform was said to involve a shift away from the fixed exchange rate, a gradual movement towards greater flexibility, and a peg to a basket of currencies. This paper closely examines the post-July Chinese currency regime utilising contemporary ideas in the econometrics of structural change. We find that the yuan has...

  8. International Food Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Malov

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The review article reveals the content of the concept of Food Regime, which is little-known in the Russian academic reference. The author monitored and codified the semantic dynamic of the terminological unit from its original interpretations to modern formulations based on the retrospective analysis. The rehabilitation of the academic merits of D. Puchala and R. Hopkins — authors who used the concept Food Regime for a few years before its universally recognized origin and official scientific debut, was accomplished with help of historical and comparative methods. The author implemented the method of ascension from the abstract to the concrete to demonstrating the classification of Food Regimes compiled on the basis of geopolitical interests in the sphere of international production, consumption, and distribution of foodstuffs. The characteristic features of historically formed Food Regime were described in the chronological order, as well as modern tendencies possessing reformist potential were identified. In particular, it has been established that the idea of Food Sovereignty (which is an alternative to the modern Corporate Food Regime is the subject for acute academic disputes. The discussion between P. McMichael P. and H. Bernstein devoted to the “peasant question” — mobilization frame of the Food Sovereignty strategy was analyzed using the secondary data processing method. Due to the critical analysis, the author comes to the conclusion that it is necessary to follow the principles of the Food Sovereignty strategy to prevent the catastrophic prospects associated with ecosystem degradation, accelerated erosion of soils, the complete disappearance of biodiversity and corporate autoc racy successfully. The author is convinced that the idea of Food Sovereignty can ward off energetic liberalization of nature, intensive privatization of life and rapid monetization of unconditioned human reflexes.

  9. Cogon grass (Imperata cylindrica), a potential biomass candidate for bioethanol: cell wall structural changes enhancing hydrolysis in a mild alkali pretreatment regime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haque, Md Azizul; Barman, Dhirendra Nath; Kim, Min Keun; Yun, Han Dae; Cho, Kye Man

    2016-03-30

    Imperata cylindrica is being considered as a biomass candidate for bioethanol. This work aimed to evaluate a mild alkali pretreatment effect on the Imperata recalcitrant structure. Therefore, varied concentrations of NaOH (0, 7.5, 15, 20, and 25 g L(-1) ) were applied as treatments to Imperata at 105 °C for 10 min. Scanning electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy studies revealed that 20 to 25 g L(-1) NaOH-treated Imperata exposed amorphous cellulose on surface granules composed of lignin, waxes, and partly hemicelluloses were abolished due to the comprehensive disruption of the linkages between lignin and carbohydrates. The cellulose crystalline index was increased with 7.5 to 20 g L(-1) NaOH treatments and reduced with a 25 g L(-1) NaOH treatment. In fact, the cellulose content in solids increased with the increasing NaOH concentration and was estimated to be 720 and 740 g kg(-1) for the 20 and 25 g L(-1) NaOH treatments, respectively. The yield of the reducing sugar was obtained 805 and 813 mg g(-1) from 20 and 25 g L(-1) NaOH-treated Imperata, respectively. Considering the cost of pretreatment, the 20 g L(-1) NaOH treatment is judged to be effective for disrupting Imperata recalcitrance in this pretreatment regime. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

  10. Fire Regime Characteristics along Environmental Gradients in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Vanesa Moreno

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Concern regarding global change has increased the need to understand the relationship between fire regime characteristics and the environment. Pyrogeographical theory suggests that fire regimes are constrained by climate, vegetation and fire ignition processes, but it is not obvious how fire regime characteristics are related to those factors. We used a three-matrix approach with a multivariate statistical methodology that combined an ordination method and fourth-corner analysis for hypothesis testing to investigate the relationship between fire regime characteristics and environmental gradients across Spain. Our results suggest that fire regime characteristics (i.e., density and seasonality of fire activity are constrained primarily by direct gradients based on climate, population, and resource gradients based on forest potential productivity. Our results can be used to establish a predictive model for how fire regimes emerge in order to support fire management, particularly as global environmental changes impact fire regime characteristics.

  11. Floating Exchange Rate Regime

    OpenAIRE

    Quader, Syed Manzur

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, many developing countries having a history of high inflation, unfavorable balance of payment situation and a high level of foreign currencies denominated debt, have switched or are in the process of switching to a more flexible exchange rate regime. Therefore, the stability of the exchange rate and the dynamics of its volatility are more crucial than before to prevent financial crises and macroeconomic disturbances. This paper is designed to find out the reasons behind Bangla...

  12. Recent changes (1973-2014 versus 1903-1972) in the flow regime of the Lower Paraná River and current fluvial pollution warnings in its Delta Biosphere Reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puig, Alba; Olguín Salinas, Héctor F; Borús, Juan A

    2016-06-01

    Alterations in flow regimes of large rivers may originate or increase risks to ecosystems and humans. The Paraná River basin (South America) undergoes human pressures (e.g., heavy damming in the upper basin, deforestation, and mixed pollution) that may affect the water quantity and quality of its terminal Delta (Argentina). In this study, after applying univariate and multivariate change-point detection and trend analyses to the daily data series of flows incoming to the Delta (Paraná-Santa Fe section), flow characteristics were compared by Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) and Environmental Flow Components (EFC). Some flood characteristics were also compared from hydrometric levels in the middle Delta (San Pedro station). Chemical and microbiological water variables in the main rivers of the "Paraná Delta" Biosphere Reserve were examined during two extreme hydrologic years (October 2008 to July 2010) to detect potential risk factors in association with hydrologic conditions. In the Lower Paraná River, a historical period (1903-1972) and two more altered periods (1973-1999 wet period and 2000-2014 dry period) were identified. Flow duration curves evidenced different changes in both altered periods, reflecting the joint effect of climatic variability and human influence. The most evident alterations in the flow regime were the lack of record of the extreme-low-flow component, the attenuation of monthly flow seasonality, and the increase in the number of reversals (dry period) and in the variability of maximum and minimum flow dates. These alterations are consistent with the monthly and daily flow regulation by upstream dams evidenced by available data from the current dry period. In the middle Delta, the marked monthly seasonality in flood days decreased only in the wet period. The proportion between the number of flood days exceeding the evacuation level and that of those exceeding the warning level doubled in the wet period but decreased only

  13. Simulation of a rainfall - runoff process for the evaluation of variability in the river flow regime in small basins with vegetation changes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Buchtele, Josef; Tesař, Miroslav

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 41, - (2010), s. 103-110 ISSN 0071-6715 R&D Projects: GA MŽP(CZ) SP/1A6/151/07 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 511179 - NEWATER Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : vegetation change * land use * rainfall - runoff simulation * evapotranspiration demand Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology

  14. Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, M.J. [University of Edinburgh, Institute of Geography, School of Geosciences, Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Marlon, J.; Ortiz, N.; Bartlein, P.J.; Harrison, S.P.; Mayle, F.E.; Ballouche, A.; Bradshaw, R.H.W.; Carcaillet, C.; Cordova, C.; Mooney, S.; Moreno, P.I.; Prentice, I.C.; Thonicke, K.; Tinner, W.; Whitlock, C.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, Y.; Ali, A.A.; Anderson, R.S.; Beer, R.; Behling, H.; Briles, C.; Brown, K.J.; Brunelle, A.; Bush, M.; Camill, P.; Chu, G.Q.; Clark, J.; Colombaroli, D.; Connor, S.; Daniau, A.L.; Daniels, M.; Dodson, J.; Doughty, E.; Edwards, M.E.; Finsinger, W.; Foster, D.; Frechette, J.; Gaillard, M.J.; Gavin, D.G.; Gobet, E.; Haberle, S.; Hallett, D.J.; Higuera, P.; Hope, G.; Horn, S.; Inoue, J.; Kaltenrieder, P.; Kennedy, L.; Kong, Z.C.; Larsen, C.; Long, C.J.; Lynch, J.; Lynch, E.A.; McGlone, M.; Meeks, S.; Mensing, S.; Meyer, G.; Minckley, T.; Mohr, J.; Nelson, D.M.; New, J.; Newnham, R.; Noti, R.; Oswald, W.; Pierce, J.; Richard, P.J.H.; Rowe, C.; Sanchez Goni, M.F.; Shuman, B.N.; Takahara, H.; Toney, J.; Turney, C.; Urrego-Sanchez, D.H.; Umbanhowar, C.; Vandergoes, M.; Vanniere, B.; Vescovi, E.; Walsh, M.; Wang, X.; Williams, N.; Wilmshurst, J.; Zhang, J.H.

    2008-06-15

    Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning since the LGM and present global maps showing changes in fire activity for time slices during the past 21,000 years (as differences in charcoal accumulation values compared to pre-industrial). There is strong broad-scale coherence in fire activity after the LGM, but spatial heterogeneity in the signals increases thereafter. In North America, Europe and southern South America, charcoal records indicate less-than-present fire activity during the deglacial period, from 21,000 to {proportional_to}11,000 cal yr BP. In contrast, the tropical latitudes of South America and Africa show greater-than-present fire activity from {proportional_to}19,000 to {proportional_to}17,000 cal yr BP and most sites from Indochina and Australia show greater-than-present fire activity from 16,000 to {proportional_to}13,000 cal yr BP. Many sites indicate greater-than-present or near-present activity during the Holocene with the exception of eastern North America and eastern Asia from 8,000 to {proportional_to}3,000 cal yr BP, Indonesia and Australia from 11,000 to 4,000 cal yr BP, and southern South America from 6,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP where fire activity was less than present. Regional coherence in the patterns of change in fire activity was evident throughout the post-glacial period. These complex patterns can largely be explained in terms of large-scale climate controls modulated by local changes in vegetation and fuel load. (orig.)

  15. Mudanças em regimes industriais e acumulação de capacidades tecnológicas: evidências de empresas de celulose e papel no Brasil Changes in industrial regimes and accumulation of technological capabilities: evidence from pulp and paper firms in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Teresa Carvajal García

    2009-12-01

    extensive fieldwork, this article examines these issues in three large pulp and paper companies in Brazil (1970-2004. The results show that: (1 Inter and intra-firm differences across the companies in terms of the manner and speed of accumulation of capabilities for specific technical functions over different time periods; (2 Such differences were reflected on these firms' techno-economic performance improvement during the examined periods; (3 These companies responded positively to the changes into an open and outward-looking industrial regime, implemented from 1990s in Brazil; (4 However, the improvements to these firms' techno-economic performance were not derived from trade-openness per se, but, mainly, from their efforts on technological accumulation.

  16. CURCUMIN IN COMBINATION WITH TRIPLE THERAPY REGIMES AMELIORATES OXIDATIVE STRESS AND HISTOPATHOLOGIC CHANGES IN CHRONIC GASTRITIS-ASSOCIATED HELICOBACTER PYLORI INFECTION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judaki, Arezu; Rahmani, Asghar; Feizi, Jalil; Asadollahi, Khairollah; Hafezi Ahmadi, Mohammad Reza

    2017-01-01

    Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) gastric infection is a main cause of inflammatory changes and gastric cancers. The aim of this study was finding the effects of curcumin on oxidative stress and histological changes in chronic gastritis associated with H. pylori. In a randomized clinical trial, patients were divided into two groups: a standard triple therapy group and triple therapy with curcumin group. Endoscopic and histological examinations were measured for all patients before and after 8 weeks. Triple therapy with curcumin treatment group significantly decreased malondialdehyde markers, glutathione peroxides and increased total antioxidant capacity of the gastric mucosa at the end of study compared to baseline and triple regimen groups. In addition, the oxidative damage to DNA was significantly decreased in triple therapy with curcumin group at the end of study compared to baseline and compared to triple therapy (Pgastritis associated by H. pylori.

  17. Evaluation of the appearing changes in water regime at Ráztoka and Červík basins in the Beskydy Mts

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tesař, Miroslav; Buchtele, Josef

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 6, č. 2 (2013), s. 135-148 ISSN 1803-2451 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR TA02021451; GA ČR GA205/09/1918 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : runoff change * salvage clear cutting * modelling of rainfall-runoff process Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology http://beskydy.mendelu.cz/pdf/beskyd201306020135.pdf

  18. Contraction and Expansion of the Upper Zambezi Wetlands in Response to Precipitation Regime Changes and Impacts on Carbon, Energy and Water Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowman, L.; Barros, A. P.

    2017-12-01

    The Upper Zambezi River Basin (UZRB) serves as the headwater catchment of the fourth-largest river in Africa, provides essential freshwater resources to arid and semi-arid regions within its boundaries, and recharges the Northern Kalahari Aquifer. Shallow and clayey soils give way to seasonal waterlogging, especially along drainage lines, favoring the establishment of wetlands. Woodland savanna, grasslands and miombo dominate the UZRB's diverse ecosystem, marking a complex transition zone between the Congo tropical rainforest and the Kalahari Desert that reflects spatial rainfall gradients. Satellite imagery shows that permanent wetlands are located in low-lying convergence zones in the northeast and northwest corners of UZRB where surface-groundwater interactions are most vigorous. However, orographic precipitation gradients cannot fully explain interannual changes in wetland area and vegetation density. We hypothesize that changes in vegetation density result from nonlinear interactions and feedbacks among precipitation, canopy biophysical properties, soil moisture and groundwater processes modulated by topography and regional hydrogeology. This work aims to understand how changes in vegetation density, particularly in and around permanent and intermittent wetlands, impact carbon, energy and water fluxes. Using the MODIS Nadir BRDF-Adjusted Reflectance product, a seasonally-varying wetland class is derived that reflects inter-annual precipitation and groundwater variability. The Duke Coupled Hydrology Model with Prognostic Vegetation is adapted to include C4 photosynthesis for the UZRB grasslands and used to simulate changes in canopy density and impacts on gross primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture at high spatial and temporal resolution. Initial results using the column-wise model provide a baseline for understanding surface fluxes before incorporating groundwater and subsurface flows crucial to investigating the implicit nonlinearities

  19. Ecological regime shifts and changes of lake ecosystem service in a shallow Yangtze lake (Taibai Lake, China) over the past 150 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, X.; Xu, M.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Shallow lakes provide a range of ecosystem services such as water supply, biodiversity, aquaculture, tourism, shipping and flood regulation. Over recent decades, many lakes have become severely deteriorated due to a coupled natural and human disturbance. Given the limited monitoring records, however, we still have little knowledge on how, when and why those lake experienced ecological status shifts, and how the lake ecosystem service changed. Paleolimnological techniques were widely used in understanding the historical environmental and ecological changes. Here, we chose a typical eutrophic shallow lake, Taibai Lake, and acquired geochemistry proxies, grain size, diatom, cladocera and chironomid from a 210Pb and 137Cs dated sediment core. Document records and monitoring data are also included as important marks of social and environmental change. A T-test based algorithm of STARS reveal at least two ecological shifts, respectively in the 1960s and the 1990s. The sudden shift in the 1960s is supposed to be influenced by a dam and sluice construction in the 1950s and another shift in the 1990s should be a critical transition due to the alternation of ecosystem structure for higher fishery production. Correspondingly, lake ecosystem service (LES) also experienced significant changes. Prior to 1930s, different types of LES kept relatively stable with low values. With the dam construction in the 1960s, the changed hydrological condition led to gradual increases in both regulation and provision service. However, with much effort on fishery and reclamation, the regulation service of the lake decreased, exhibiting a tradeoff among LES. After 1990s, with intense aquaculture, most types of LSE suffered a further decrease. The long-term records exhibited that ecosystem services in primary productivity and biodiversity maintenance increased (synergies) whereas services in water-purification and climate regulating decreased significantly (tradeoffs) since 1950s, when local

  20. Short-term changes in particulate fluxes measured by drifting sediment traps during end summer oligotrophic regime in the NW Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Marty

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Short-term changes in the flux of particulate matter were determined in the central north western Mediterranean Sea (near DYFAMED site using drifting sediment traps at 200 m depth in the course of the DYNAPROC 2 cruise (14 September–17 October 2004. In this period of marked water column stratification, POC fluxes varied by an order of magnitude, in the range of 0.03–0.29 mgC m−2 h−1 over the month and showed very rapid and high variations. Particulate carbon export represented less than 5% of integrated primary production, suggesting that phytoplankton production was essentially sustained by internal recycling of organic matter and retained within the photic zone. While PON and POP fluxes paralleled one another, the elemental ratios POC/PON and POC/POP, varied widely over short-term periods. Values of these ratios generally higher than the conventional Redfield ratio, together with the very low chlorophyll a flux recorded in the traps (mean 0.017 μg m−2 h−1, and the high phaeopigment and acyl lipid hydrolysis metabolite concentrations of the settling material, indicated that the organic matter reaching 200 m depth was reworked (by grazing, fecal pellets production, degradation and that algal sinking, dominated by nano- and picoplankton, made a small contribution to the downward flux. Over time, the relative abundance of individual lipid classes in organic matter (OM changed from glycolipids-dominated to neutral (wax esters, triacylglycerols and phospholipids-dominated, suggesting ecosystem maturation as well as rapid and continual exchanges between dissolved, suspended and sinking pools. Our most striking result was documenting the rapid change in fluxes of the various measured parameters. In the situation encountered here, with dominant regenerated production, a decrease of fluxes was noticed during windy periods (possibly through reduction of grazing. But fluxes increased as soon as calm

  1. Long-term dynamics of biological indicators of navaga Eleginus nawaga (Walbaum, 1792 of the White Sea in relation to changes of the reservoir temperature regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stasenkov V. A.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Systematic studies of navagа of the White Sea were initiated in the late 1960-ies. Data sets on dimensional indicators, age composition of populations of navaga of the Onega, Dvina, Mezen Bays and Voronka of the White Sea have been accumulated during 45 years of observations. The aim of this work is to identify the causes of the interannual and long-term changes of biological population parameters of navaga. As investigated interannual changes reflecting fish growth, the length and mass of 2 and 3 years old specimens have been chosen. It has been proved that interannual fluctuations in length and weight may depend on the length of the feeding season, as well as the number of populations. Climate warming has resulted that over the past 45 years since the beginning of observations the water temperature in the White Sea in April on average has increased by one degree, and some years – even more. Due to lengthening of the feeding period the seasonal growth of navaga has increased, respectively the annual rates of its length and weight have increased as well. The increase in the growth rate of navaga in the Onega and Dvina Bays has led to its mass mature and joining the fishing (commercial herd at the age of two years. In the Mezen Bay and Voronka the trend on the increase in annual average length and weight navaga of only younger age groups has kept. Growth rate of large size navaga has decreased due to the almost complete cessation of fishing and the increase of older fish number. The revealed regularities in the change of the navaga population parameters of the White Sea should be used for preparing the forecast data on the state of its reserves.

  2. Ecosystem regime shifts disrupt trophic structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hempson, Tessa N; Graham, Nicholas A J; MacNeil, M Aaron; Hoey, Andrew S; Wilson, Shaun K

    2018-01-01

    Regime shifts between alternative stable ecosystem states are becoming commonplace due to the combined effects of local stressors and global climate change. Alternative states are characterized as substantially different in form and function from pre-disturbance states, disrupting the delivery of ecosystem services and functions. On coral reefs, regime shifts are typically characterized by a change in the benthic composition from coral to macroalgal dominance. Such fundamental shifts in the benthos are anticipated to impact associated fish communities that are reliant on the reef for food and shelter, yet there is limited understanding of how regime shifts propagate through the fish community over time, relative to initial or recovery conditions. This study addresses this knowledge gap using long-term data of coral reef regime shifts and recovery on Seychelles reefs following the 1998 mass bleaching event. It shows how trophic structure of the reef fish community becomes increasingly dissimilar between alternative reef ecosystem states (regime-shifted vs. recovering) with time since disturbance. Regime-shifted reefs developed a concave trophic structure, with increased biomass in base trophic levels as herbivorous species benefitted from increased algal resources. Mid trophic level species, including specialists such as corallivores, declined with loss of coral habitat, while biomass was retained in upper trophic levels by large-bodied, generalist invertivores. Recovering reefs also experienced an initial decline in mid trophic level biomass, but moved toward a bottom-heavy pyramid shape, with a wide range of feeding groups (e.g., planktivores, corallivores, omnivores) represented at mid trophic levels. Given the importance of coral reef fishes in maintaining the ecological function of coral reef ecosystems and their associated fisheries, understanding the effects of regime shifts on these communities is essential to inform decisions that enhance ecological

  3. The effects of wildfire on mortality and resources for an arboreal marsupial: resilience to fire events but susceptibility to fire regime change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam C Banks

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Big environmental disturbances have big ecological effects, yet these are not always what we might expect. Understanding the proximate effects of major disturbances, such as severe wildfires, on individuals, populations and habitats will be essential for understanding how predicted future increases in the frequency of such disturbances will affect ecosystems. However, researchers rarely have access to data from immediately before and after such events. Here we report on the effects of a severe and extensive forest wildfire on mortality, reproductive output and availability of key shelter resources for an arboreal marsupial. We also investigated the behavioural response of individuals to changed shelter resource availability in the post-fire environment. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We fitted proximity-logging radiotransmitters to mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami before, during and after the 2009 wildfires in Victoria, Australia. Surprisingly, we detected no mortality associated with the fire, and despite a significant post-fire decrease in the proportion of females carrying pouch young in the burnt area, there was no short-term post-fire population decline. The major consequence of this fire for mountain brushtail possums was the loss of over 80% of hollow-bearing trees. The types of trees preferred as shelter sites (highly decayed dead standing trees were those most likely to collapse after fire. Individuals adapted to resource decline by being more flexible in resource selection after the fire, but not by increased resource sharing. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite short-term demographic resilience and behavioural adaptation following this fire, the major loss of decayed hollow trees suggests the increased frequency of stand-replacing wildfires predicted under climate change will pose major challenges for shelter resource availability for hollow-dependent fauna. Hollow-bearing trees are typically biological

  4. Using Stable Isotopes to Link Nutrient Sources in the Everglades and Biological Sinks in Florida Bay: A Biogeochemical Approach to Evaluate Ecosystem Response to Changing Nutrient Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoare, A. M.; Hollander, D. J.; Heil, C.; Glibert, P.; Murasko, S.; Revilla, M.; Alexander, J.

    2005-05-01

    Anthropogenic influences in South Florida have led to deterioration of its two major ecosystems, the Everglades wetlands and the Florida Bay estuary. Consequently, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan has been proposed to restore the Everglades ecosystem; however, restoration efforts will likely exert new ecological changes in the Everglades and ultimately Florida Bay. The success of the Florida Everglades restoration depends on our understanding and ability to predict how regional changes in the distribution and composition of dissolved organic and inorganic nutrients will direct the downstream biogeochemical dynamics of Florida Bay. While the transport of freshwater and nutrients to Florida Bay have been studied, much work remains to directly link nutrient dynamics in Florida Bay to nutrient sources in the Everglades. Our study uses stable C and N isotopic measurements of chemical and biological materials from the Everglades and Florida Bay as part of a multi-proxy approach to link nutrient sources in the Everglades to biological sinks in Florida Bay. Isotopic analyses of dissolved and particulate species of water, aquatic vegetation and sedimentary organic matter show that the watersheds within the Everglades are chemically distinct and that these signatures are also reflected in the bay. A large east-west gradient in both carbon and nitrogen (as much as 10‰ for δ15N POM) reflect differing nutrient sources for each region of Florida Bay and is strongly correlated with upstream sources in the Everglades. Isotopic signatures also reflect seasonal relationships associated with wet and dry periods. High C and N measurements of DOM and POM measurements suggest significant influence from waste water in Canal C-111 in eastern Florida Bay, particularly during the dry season. These observations show that nutrients from the Everglades watersheds enter Florida Bay and are important in controlling biogeochemical processes in the bay. This study proves that

  5. The Effects of Wildfire on Mortality and Resources for an Arboreal Marsupial: Resilience to Fire Events but Susceptibility to Fire Regime Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Sam C.; Knight, Emma J.; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Lindenmayer, David B.

    2011-01-01

    Background Big environmental disturbances have big ecological effects, yet these are not always what we might expect. Understanding the proximate effects of major disturbances, such as severe wildfires, on individuals, populations and habitats will be essential for understanding how predicted future increases in the frequency of such disturbances will affect ecosystems. However, researchers rarely have access to data from immediately before and after such events. Here we report on the effects of a severe and extensive forest wildfire on mortality, reproductive output and availability of key shelter resources for an arboreal marsupial. We also investigated the behavioural response of individuals to changed shelter resource availability in the post-fire environment. Methodology/Principal Findings We fitted proximity-logging radiotransmitters to mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami) before, during and after the 2009 wildfires in Victoria, Australia. Surprisingly, we detected no mortality associated with the fire, and despite a significant post-fire decrease in the proportion of females carrying pouch young in the burnt area, there was no short-term post-fire population decline. The major consequence of this fire for mountain brushtail possums was the loss of over 80% of hollow-bearing trees. The types of trees preferred as shelter sites (highly decayed dead standing trees) were those most likely to collapse after fire. Individuals adapted to resource decline by being more flexible in resource selection after the fire, but not by increased resource sharing. Conclusions/Significance Despite short-term demographic resilience and behavioural adaptation following this fire, the major loss of decayed hollow trees suggests the increased frequency of stand-replacing wildfires predicted under climate change will pose major challenges for shelter resource availability for hollow-dependent fauna. Hollow-bearing trees are typically biological legacies of previous

  6. An integrated modeling framework for exploring flow regime and water quality changes with increasing biofuel crop production in the U.S. Corn Belt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaeger, Mary A.; Housh, Mashor; Cai, Ximing; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2014-12-01

    To better address the dynamic interactions between human and hydrologic systems, we develop an integrated modeling framework that employs a System of Systems optimization model to emulate human development decisions which are then incorporated into a watershed model to estimate the resulting hydrologic impacts. The two models are run interactively to simulate the coevolution of coupled human-nature systems, such that reciprocal feedbacks between hydrologic processes and human decisions (i.e., human impacts on critical low flows and hydrologic impacts on human decisions on land and water use) can be assessed. The framework is applied to a Midwestern U.S. agricultural watershed, in the context of proposed biofuels development. This operation is illustrated by projecting three possible future coevolution trajectories, two of which use dedicated biofuel crops to reduce annual watershed nitrate export while meeting ethanol production targets. Imposition of a primary external driver (biofuel mandate) combined with different secondary drivers (water quality targets) results in highly nonlinear and multiscale responses of both the human and hydrologic systems, including multiple tradeoffs, impacting the future coevolution of the system in complex, heterogeneous ways. The strength of the hydrologic response is sensitive to the magnitude of the secondary driver; 45% nitrate reduction target leads to noticeable impacts at the outlet, while a 30% reduction leads to noticeable impacts that are mainly local. The local responses are conditioned by previous human-hydrologic modifications and their spatial relationship to the new biofuel development, highlighting the importance of past coevolutionary history in predicting future trajectories of change.

  7. Characteristics of regulatory regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noralv Veggeland

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The overarching theme of this paper is institutional analysis of basic characteristics of regulatory regimes. The concepts of path dependence and administrative traditions are used throughout. Self-reinforcing or positive feedback processes in political systems represent a basic framework. The empirical point of departure is the EU public procurement directive linked to OECD data concerning use of outsourcing among member states. The question is asked: What has caused the Nordic countries, traditionally not belonging to the Anglo-Saxon market-centred administrative tradition, to be placed so high on the ranking as users of the Market-Type Mechanism (MTM of outsourcing in the public sector vs. in-house provision of services? A thesis is that the reason may be complex, but might be found in an innovative Scandinavian regulatory approach rooted in the Nordic model.

  8. Planning for regime change and its aftermath

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-09

    same ends and the same means, even though there may be minor variations and in infinite diversity of combinations – these things are susceptible to...U.S., U.K. France, Soviet Union, and others. 5 See Jeffrey Goldberg , “The Obama Doctrine,” The Atlantic, 2016 for an excellent treatment on both the...37, no. 4 (Spring 2013): 199–214. Goldberg , Jeffrey. “The Obama Doctrine.” The Atlantic, 2016. 119 Mehler, Andreas. “Why Security Forces Do Not

  9. Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems | Science Inventory ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (US Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps, and multivariate analysis such as nMDS (non-metric Multidimensional Scaling) and cluster analysis. We successfully detect spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change. Use an information theory based method to identify ecological boundaries and compare our results to traditional early warning

  10. European welfare regimes: Political orientations versus poverty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josifidis Kosta

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This inquiry analyzes how political orientations shape welfare states and labour market institutions when seeking to reduce poverty. In order to identify effects of these two key variables, we conduct a panel regression analysis that includes two poverty measures: poverty rates before and after social spending. This inquiry considers 14 EU countries, and in the period from 1995 to 2008, which are grouped according to welfare state regimes. We consider Social Democratic, Corporatist, Mediterranean and Liberal welfare state regimes. Panel regression results indicate that political orientation engenders no significant statistically measurable effects on poverty rates before social spending. Effects register, however, as significant when considering poverty rates after social spending. With respect to the first set of results, we advance two key explanations. First, we note a longer period of time is necessary in order to observe actual effects of political orientation on market generated poverty. Second, political parties with their respective programs do not register as influential enough to solve social problems related to income distribution when taken alone. Influences register as indirect and are expressed through changes in employment rates and social spending. The second set of results support the hypothesis that a selected political regime does indeed contribute to poverty reduction. In sum, political orientation and political regime does indeed affect poverty through welfare state institutions, as well as through labour market institutions.

  11. Water regime of steam power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oesz, Janos

    2011-01-01

    The water regime of water-steam thermal power plants (secondary side of pressurized water reactors (PWR); fossil-fired thermal power plants - referred to as steam power plants) has changed in the past 30 years, due to a shift from water chemistry to water regime approach. The article summarizes measures (that have been realised by chemists of NPP Paks) on which the secondary side of NPP Paks has become a high purity water-steam power plant and by which the water chemistry stress corrosion risk of heat transfer tubes in the VVER-440 steam generators was minimized. The measures can also be applied to the water regime of fossil-fired thermal power plants with super- and subcritical steam pressure. Based on the reliability analogue of PWR steam generators, water regime can be defined as the harmony of construction, material(s) and water chemistry, which needs to be provided in not only the steam generators (boiler) but in each heat exchanger of steam power plant: - Construction determines the processes of flow, heat and mass transfer and their local inequalities; - Material(s) determines the minimal rate of general corrosion and the sensitivity for local corrosion damage; - Water chemistry influences the general corrosion of material(s) and the corrosion products transport, as well as the formation of local corrosion environment. (orig.)

  12. Influence of curing regimes on compressive strength of ultra high ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    142 MPa with change in curing regimes. The samples ..... Guide, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, ... the 5th International Conference on the Chemistry of Cement, Tokyo, Japan, pp.

  13. Deuteron structure in the deep inelastic regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Canal, C.A.; Tarutina, T. [Universidad Nacional de La Plata, IFLP/CONICET y Departamento de Fisica, La Plata (Argentina); Vento, V. [Universidad de Valencia-CSIC, Departamento de Fisica Teorica-IFIC, Burjassot (Valencia) (Spain)

    2017-06-15

    We study nuclear effects in the deuteron in the deep inelastic regime using the newest available data. We put special emphasis on their Q{sup 2} dependence. The study is carried out using a scheme which parameterizes, in a simple manner, these effects by changing the proton and neutron stucture functions in medium. The result of our analysis is compared with other recent proposals. We conclude that precise EMC ratios cannot be obtained without considering the nuclear effects in the deuteron. (orig.)

  14. Tidal regimes and salt marshes - the River Hamble analogue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gray, A.J.; Moy, I.L.; Warman, E.A.; Dawson, F.H.; Henville, P.

    1993-01-01

    Construction of estuarine tidal-energy barrages has a potentially major effect on the tidal regime of the estuary, particularly upstream of a barrage. Because tidal regime largely controls the distribution and species composition of intertidal plant and animal communities, it is important to understand how barrages may affect such communities. The main objectives of the research described in this report were to relate recent changes in tidal regime within an embanked area of salt marsh and mudflat to changes in the distribution of plant species. This was to test predictions about tidal control of species' range and to assess the site's suitability as an analogue of post-barrage conditions. (author)

  15. Crustal stress regime in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Cesaro

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to obtain a reliable map of the present-day stress field in Italy, needed to better understand the active tectonic processes and to contribute to the assessment of seismic hazard, in 1992 we started to collect and analyze new data from borehole breakouts in deep oil and geothermal wells and focal mechanisms of earthquakes (2.5 < M <5 occurred in Italy between 1988 and 1995. From about 200 deep wells and 300 focal mechanisms analyzed to date, we infer that: the internal (SW sector of the Northern Apenninic arc is extending with minimum compressional stress (Shmin oriented ? ENE, while the external front is thrusting over the Adriatic foreland (Shmin ? NW-SE. The entire Southern Apennine is extending in NE direction (from the Tyrrhenian margin to the Apulian foreland and compression (in the foredeep is no longer active at the outer (NE thrust front. Between these two arcs, an abrupt change in the tectonic regime is detected with directions of horizontal stress changing by as much as 90º in the external front, around latitude 430N. Along the Ionian side of the Calabrian arc the stress directions inferred from breakouts and focal mechanisms are scattered with a hint of rotation from N-S Shmin close to the Southern Apennines, to ~ E-W directions in the Messina Strait. In Sicily, a NW-SE direction of SHmax is evident in the Hyblean foreland, parallel to the direction of plate motion between Africa and Europe. A more complex pattern of stress directions is observed in the thrust belt zone, with rotations from the regional trend (NW í directed SHmax to NE oriented SHmax. A predominant NW direction of SHmax is also detected in mainland Sicily from earthquake focal mechanisms, but no well data are available in this region. In the northern part of Sicily (Aeolian Islands a ~N-S direction of SHmax is observed.

  16. Dune growth under multidirectional wind regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadal, C.; Rozier, O.; Claudin, P.; Courrech Du Pont, S.; Narteau, C.

    2017-12-01

    Under unidirectional wind regimes, flat sand beds become unstable to produce periodic linear dunes, commonly called transverse dunes because their main ridges are oriented perpendicular to the air flow. In areas of low sediment availability, the same interactions between flow, transport and topography produce barchan dunes, isolated sand-pile migrating over long distances with a characteristic crescentic shape. For the last fifteen years, barchan dunes and the instability at the origin of transverse dunes have been the subject of numerous studies that have identified a set of characteristic length and time scales with respect to the physical properties of both grains and fluid. This is not the case for dunes developing under multidirectional wind regimes. Under these conditions, dune orientation is measured with respect to the direction of the resultant sand flux. Depending on the wind regime, dunes do not always line up perpendicularly to the resultant sand flux, but can also be at an oblique angle or even parallel to it. These oblique and longitudinal dunes are ubiquitous in all deserts on Earth and planetary bodies because of the seasonal variability of wind orientation. They are however poorly constrained by observations and there is still no complete theoretical framework providing a description of their orientation and initial wavelength. Here, we extend the linear stability analysis of a flat sand of bed done in two dimensions for a unidirectional flow to three dimensions and multidirectional flow regimes. We are able to recover transitions from transverse to oblique or longitudinal dune patterns according to changes in wind regimes. We besides give a prediction for the initial dune wavelength. Our results compare well to previous theory of dune orientation and to field, experimental and numerical data.

  17. Static converters power supply: transient regimes; Alimentation par convertisseurs statiques: regimes transitoires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasqualini, G. [Ecole Superieure d`Electricite (France)

    1997-08-01

    Direct current motors, asynchronous and variable speed synchronous motors are generally supplied with static converters. Speed variation is obtained by voltage variation in DC motors and by frequency variation in AC motors. In these conditions, these motors are running continuously in transient regimes: the DC motors current is not direct and the AC motors current is not sinusoidal. This situation leads to pulsing couples in the shaft line and to an increase of Joule effect losses. The aim of this paper is to present the methods of study of the electric motors functioning using the shape of the power voltages given by converters and mathematical models of these machines. The synchronous machines are rapidly described while the asynchronous machines are studied using Ku`s transformation instead of Park`s transformation for simplification. For each type of machine, calculation methods allow to determine their current, additional losses and couple characteristics. The transient regimes considered are those remaining when the motor is running at a constant speed and defined regime (supply voltages are periodical functions of time). These transient regimes are identically reproducing with a frequency which is a multiple of the converters supply frequency. Transient regimes due to functioning changes of the motor, such as resisting couple or power supply frequency variations, are not considered in this study. (J.S.) 9 refs.

  18. Current US nuclear liability regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, O.F.

    2000-01-01

    The Price-Anderson Act Adopted by US Congress in 1957 as the world's first national nuclear liability regime. It is a comprehensive, complicated and unique system and stems from special features of US legal regime and federal system of government. It differs from other systems by providing for 'economic', not legal; channeling of liability to facility operator and not recommended as model for other states, but most features adopted by other states and international conventions

  19. Totalitäre Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Merkel, Wolfgang

    2004-01-01

    "The development of the term and the analytical concept of totalitarianism have gone through several stages since the 1920s. However, even in its most sophisticated form, the version seen in Friedrich/ Brzezinski, the concept exhibits substantial systematic classification problems and analytical weaknesses. This article attempts to frame the type of totalitarian regime within a general typology of political regimes. Special attention is dedicated to the problem of distinguishing autocra...

  20. Transition from weak wave turbulence regime to solitonic regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassani, Roumaissa; Mordant, Nicolas

    2017-11-01

    The Weak Turbulence Theory (WTT) is a statistical theory describing the interaction of a large ensemble of random waves characterized by very different length scales. For both weak non-linearity and weak dispersion a different regime is predicted where solitons propagate while keeping their shape unchanged. The question under investigation here is which regime between weak turbulence or soliton gas does the system choose ? We report an experimental investigation of wave turbulence at the surface of finite depth water in the gravity-capillary range. We tune the wave dispersion and the level of nonlinearity by modifying the depth of water and the forcing respectively. We use space-time resolved profilometry to reconstruct the deformed surface of water. When decreasing the water depth, we observe a drastic transition between weak turbulence at the weakest forcing and a solitonic regime at stronger forcing. We characterize the transition between both states by studying their Fourier Spectra. We also study the efficiency of energy transfer in the weak turbulence regime. We report a loss of efficiency of angular transfer as the dispersion of the wave is reduced until the system bifurcates into the solitonic regime. This project has recieved funding from the European Research Council (ERC, Grant Agreement No. 647018-WATU).

  1. The Displacement of Regimes of Action in the Armed Forces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holsting, Vilhelm Stefan

    The aim of this paper is to explore how one might approach the profession of military command using the concepts of regimes of justification by Luc Boltanski and Laurent Thévenot in an analysis of the contemporary disputes and tensions between political and professional actors and in a time where...... of their contemporary role, responsibility and challenges) and an analysis of the displacement of military regimes in the light of economic and security changes at the societal level. I am arguing that the entrance of new regimes of justification are challenging and displacing the traditional professional justificatory...

  2. Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ke

    2016-02-01

    Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services.

  3. REGIME SWITCHING DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN CDS SPREADS: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umurcan Polat

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it is assessed the main determinants of sovereign CDS spreads in Turkey from January 2006 to December 2015. Before delving into the nonlinear Markov regime-switching model estimation, a conventional one-state linear model is estimated answering to what extent the sovereign credit risk is affected in between global and country-specific market variables and by credit ratings announcement changes. In broad strokes, the regime-switching analysis reveals that among domestic variables, it is the foreign exchange rate that affects the sovereign credit risk more in more volatile periods and among global variables, the indicators standing for global volatility risk premiums and international liquidity primarily influence the changes in the sovereign CDS spread in turbulent regimes whereas proxies for global risk free rate are significant more in tranquil regimes.

  4. On the regimes of premixing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angelini, S.; Theofanous, T.G.; Yuen, W.W. [California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States). Center for Risk Studies and Safety

    1998-01-01

    The conditions of the MAGICO-2000 experiment are extended to more broadly investigate the regimes of premixing, and the corresponding internal structures of mixing zones. With the help of the data and numerical simulations using the computer code PM-ALPHA, we can distinguish extremes of behavior dominated by inertia and thermal effects - we name these the inertia and thermal regimes, respectively. This is an important distinction that should guide future experiments aimed at code verification in this area. Interesting intermediate behaviors are also delineated and discussed. (author)

  5. Triggered dynamics in a model of different fault creep regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostić, Srđan; Franović, Igor; Perc, Matjaž; Vasović, Nebojša; Todorović, Kristina

    2014-06-23

    The study is focused on the effect of transient external force induced by a passing seismic wave on fault motion in different creep regimes. Displacement along the fault is represented by the movement of a spring-block model, whereby the uniform and oscillatory motion correspond to the fault dynamics in post-seismic and inter-seismic creep regime, respectively. The effect of the external force is introduced as a change of block acceleration in the form of a sine wave scaled by an exponential pulse. Model dynamics is examined for variable parameters of the induced acceleration changes in reference to periodic oscillations of the unperturbed system above the supercritical Hopf bifurcation curve. The analysis indicates the occurrence of weak irregular oscillations if external force acts in the post-seismic creep regime. When fault motion is exposed to external force in the inter-seismic creep regime, one finds the transition to quasiperiodic- or chaos-like motion, which we attribute to the precursory creep regime and seismic motion, respectively. If the triggered acceleration changes are of longer duration, a reverse transition from inter-seismic to post-seismic creep regime is detected on a larger time scale.

  6. [Heath and political regimes: presidential or parliamentary government for Colombia?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idrovo, Alvaro J

    2007-01-01

    Changing the presidential regime for a parliamentarian one is currently be-ing discussed in Colombia. This preliminary study explores the potential effects on health of both presidential and parliamentary regimes by using world-wide data. An ecological study was undertaken using countries from which comparable information concerning life-expectancy at birth, political regime, economic development, inequality in income, social capital (as measured by general-ised trust or Corruption Perceptions Index), political rights, civil freedom and cultural diversity could be obtained. Life-expectancy at birth and macro-determinants were compared between both political regimes. The co-relationship between these macro-determinants was estimated and the relationship between political regimen and life-expectancy at birth was estimated using robust regression. Crude analysis revealed that parliamentary countries have greater life-expectancy at birth than countries having a presidential regime. Significant co-relationships between all macro-determinants were observed. No differential effects were observed between both political regimes regarding life-expectancy at birth in multiple robust regressions. There is no evidence that presidential or parliamentary regimes provide greater levels of health for the population. It is suggested that public health policies be focused on other macro-determinants having more known effects on health, such as income inequality.

  7. Asset allocation and regime switching on Croatian financial market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tihana Škrinjarić

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available It has been known for quite some time now that financial markets exhibit changes in regimes over time. A majority of the literature tends to support that financial markets undergo regimes of bull and bear markets. This characteristic should be modeled in a proper way as investors are always interested in beating the market: either by achieving better returns than others, or by minimizing their portfolio risks. There exist many mathematical and statistical models that are used as tools to achieve the mentioned goals. Introducing the regime switching methodology in existing models has proven to be facilitate achieving such goals. Therefore, the objective of this study is to utilize the regime switching methodology on the Croatian financial market to ascertain its usefulness for Croatian investors. Multivariate regime switching and non-switching models were estimated using daily data from the period 2 January 2007 to 31 December 2015. The assumption is that the investor is interested in stock and bond markets. The results from the MGARCH and regime switching MGARCH models are then compared in order to give answers as to whether the respective methodology applied to the Croatian market is useful and how it may benefit investors. Most of the results support the presumption of incorporating this particular methodology in financial modeling for the Croatia markets. This is the first research that applies the regime switching MGARCH methodology in Croatia (including the Balkan region, hence we expect that this will be a significant contribution to existing methodologies in literature.

  8. Perspectives on the International and Internal Nuclear Security Regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Sung Soon

    2015-01-01

    The term, 'Nuclear Security' became more familiar to Korean public after the government hosted 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit. Nuclear Security is prevention of, detection of and response to criminal or intentional unauthorized acts involving or directed at nuclear material, other radioactive material, associated facilities, or associated activities. Nuclear Security includes physical protection, security of radioactive sources, nuclear forensics, nuclear smuggling prevention, border monitoring, and cyber security with regard to nuclear and other radiological materials. This abstract will review recent international trends and discuss the nuclear security regime in the Republic of Korea (ROK). The international Nuclear Security Regime has been strengthened. The upcoming Chicago Summit in 2016 and the entry into force of the Amendment of Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials (CPPNM) will bring major changes in nuclear security. The Republic of Korea hosted the 2012 Seoul Summit and strengthened domestic regime to meet international standards. The ROK has worked hard to contribute to the international security regime and to establish a robust domestic security regime against terrorist threats. Even if the nuclear security regime is robust, Risk-informed Nuclear Security management should be established to meet international standards and to implement effective as well as an efficient nuclear security regime

  9. Perspectives on the International and Internal Nuclear Security Regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Sung Soon [Korea Nuclear Non-proliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The term, 'Nuclear Security' became more familiar to Korean public after the government hosted 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit. Nuclear Security is prevention of, detection of and response to criminal or intentional unauthorized acts involving or directed at nuclear material, other radioactive material, associated facilities, or associated activities. Nuclear Security includes physical protection, security of radioactive sources, nuclear forensics, nuclear smuggling prevention, border monitoring, and cyber security with regard to nuclear and other radiological materials. This abstract will review recent international trends and discuss the nuclear security regime in the Republic of Korea (ROK). The international Nuclear Security Regime has been strengthened. The upcoming Chicago Summit in 2016 and the entry into force of the Amendment of Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials (CPPNM) will bring major changes in nuclear security. The Republic of Korea hosted the 2012 Seoul Summit and strengthened domestic regime to meet international standards. The ROK has worked hard to contribute to the international security regime and to establish a robust domestic security regime against terrorist threats. Even if the nuclear security regime is robust, Risk-informed Nuclear Security management should be established to meet international standards and to implement effective as well as an efficient nuclear security regime.

  10. Land degradation and property regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul M. Beaumont; Robert T. Walker

    1996-01-01

    This paper addresses the relationship between property regimes and land degradation outcomes, in the context of peasant agriculture. We consider explicitly whether private property provides for superior soil resource conservation, as compared to common property and open access. To assess this we implement optimization algorithms on a supercomputer to address resource...

  11. Regime identification in ASDEX Upgrade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giannone, L; Sips, A C C; Kardaun, O; Spreitler, F; Suttrop, W

    2004-01-01

    The ability to recognize the transition from the L-mode to the H-mode or from the H-mode to the improved H-mode reliably from a conveniently small number of measurements in real time is of increasing importance for machine control. Discriminant analysis has been applied to regime identification of plasma discharges in the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak. An observation consists of a set of plasma parameters averaged over a time slice in a discharge. The data set consists of all observations over different discharges and time slices. Discriminant analysis yields coefficients allowing the classification of a new observation. The results of a frequentist and a formal Bayesian approach to discriminant analysis are compared. With five plasma variables, a failure rate of 1.3% for predicting the L-mode and the H-mode confinement regime was achieved. With five plasma variables, a failure rate of 5.3% for predicting the H-mode and the improved H-mode confinement regime was achieved. The coefficients derived by discriminant analysis have been applied subsequently to discharges to illustrate the operation of regime identification in a real time control system

  12. Monetary regimes in open economies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Korpos, A.

    2006-01-01

    This thesis presents a two-country open economy framework for the analysis of strategic interactions among monetary authorities and wage bargaining institutions. From this perspective, the thesis investigates the economic consequences of replacing flexible and fixed exchange rate regimes with a

  13. Dynamic portfolio optimization across hidden market regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    2017-01-01

    Regime-based asset allocation has been shown to add value over rebalancing to static weights and, in particular, reduce potential drawdowns by reacting to changes in market conditions. The predominant approach in previous studies has been to specify in advance a static decision rule for changing...... the allocation based on the state of financial markets or the economy. In this article, model predictive control (MPC) is used to dynamically optimize a portfolio based on forecasts of the mean and variance of financial returns from a hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters. There are computational...... than a buy-and-hold investment in various major stock market indices. This is after accounting for transaction costs, with a one-day delay in the implementation of allocation changes, and with zero-interest cash as the only alternative to the stock indices. Imposing a trading penalty that reduces...

  14. Weather regimes in past climate atmospheric general circulation model simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. des Sci. du Climat et de l' Environnement; D' Andrea, F.; Vautard, R. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France); Valdes, P.J. [Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (United Kingdom)

    1999-10-01

    We investigate the climates of the present-day, inception of the last glaciation (115000 y ago) and last glacial maximum (21000 y ago) in the extratropical north Atlantic and Europe, as simulated by the laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique atmospheric general circulation model. We use these simulations to investigate the low-frequency variability of the model in different climates. The aim is to evaluate whether changes in the intraseasonal variability, which we characterize using weather regimes, can help describe the impact of different boundary conditions on climate and give a better understanding of climate change processes. Weather regimes are defined as the most recurrent patterns in the 500 hPa geopotential height, using a clustering algorithm method. The regimes found in the climate simulations of the present-day and inception of the last glaciation are similar in their number and their structure. It is the regimes' populations which are found to be different for these climates, with an increase of the model's blocked regime and a decrease in the zonal regime at the inception of the last glaciation. This description reinforces the conclusions from a study of the differences between the climatological averages of the different runs and confirms the northeastward shift to the tail of the Atlantic storm-track, which would favour more precipitation over the site of growth of the Fennoscandian ice-sheet. On the other hand, the last glacial maximum results over this sector are not found to be classifiable, showing that the change in boundary conditions can be responsible for severe changes in the weather regime and low-frequency dynamics. The LGM Atlantic low-frequency variability appears to be dominated by a large-scale retrogressing wave with a period 40 to 50 days. (orig.)

  15. Exchange rate regimes and monetary arrangements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Ribnikar

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available There is a close relationship between a country’s exchange rate regime and monetary arrangement and if we are to examine monetary arrangements then exchange rate regimes must first be analysed. Within the conventional and most widely used classification of exchange rate regimes into rigid and flexible or into polar regimes (hard peg and float on one side, and intermediate regimes on the other there, is a much greater variety among intermediate regimes. A more precise and, as will be seen, more useful classification of exchange rate regimes is the first topic of the paper. The second topic is how exchange rate regimes influence or determine monetary arrangements and monetary policy or monetary policy regimes: monetary autonomy versus monetary nonautonomy and discretion in monetary policy versus commitment in monetary policy. Both topics are important for countries on their path to the EU and the euro area

  16. Regime-Based Versus Static Asset Allocation: Letting the Data Speak

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Hansen, Bo William; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts present a big challenge to traditional strategic asset allocation. This article investigates whether regimebased asset allocation can effectively respond to changes in financial regimes at the portfolio level, in an effort to provide better long-term results than more static...... approaches can offer. The authors center their regime-based approach around a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters that can match financial markets’ tendency to change behavior abruptly and the fact that the new behavior often persists for several periods after a change. In an asset universe...

  17. Cloud regimes as phase transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stechmann, Samuel; Hottovy, Scott

    2017-11-01

    Clouds are repeatedly identified as a leading source of uncertainty in future climate predictions. Of particular importance are stratocumulus clouds, which can appear as either (i) closed cells that reflect solar radiation back to space or (ii) open cells that allow solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. Here we show that these clouds regimes - open versus closed cells - fit the paradigm of a phase transition. In addition, this paradigm characterizes pockets of open cells (POCs) as the interface between the open- and closed-cell regimes, and it identifies shallow cumulus clouds as a regime of higher variability. This behavior can be understood using an idealized model for the dynamics of atmospheric water as a stochastic diffusion process. Similar viewpoints of deep convection and self-organized criticality will also be discussed. With these new conceptual viewpoints, ideas from statistical mechanics could potentially be used for understanding uncertainties related to clouds in the climate system and climate predictions. The research of S.N.S. is partially supported by a Sloan Research Fellowship, ONR Young Investigator Award N00014-12-1-0744, and ONR MURI Grant N00014-12-1-0912.

  18. Vegetation management with fire modifies peatland soil thermal regime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Lee E; Palmer, Sheila M; Johnston, Kerrylyn; Holden, Joseph

    2015-05-01

    Vegetation removal with fire can alter the thermal regime of the land surface, leading to significant changes in biogeochemistry (e.g. carbon cycling) and soil hydrology. In the UK, large expanses of carbon-rich upland environments are managed to encourage increased abundance of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) by rotational burning of shrub vegetation. To date, though, there has not been any consideration of whether prescribed vegetation burning on peatlands modifies the thermal regime of the soil mass in the years after fire. In this study thermal regime was monitored across 12 burned peatland soil plots over an 18-month period, with the aim of (i) quantifying thermal dynamics between burned plots of different ages (from post burning), and (ii) developing statistical models to determine the magnitude of thermal change caused by vegetation management. Compared to plots burned 15 + years previously, plots recently burned (management effects. Temperatures measured in soil plots burned vegetation regrows. Our findings that prescribed peatland vegetation burning alters soil thermal regime should provide an impetus for further research to understand the consequences of thermal regime change for carbon processing and release, and hydrological processes, in these peatlands. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  19. Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony L. Westerling; Monica G. Turner; Erica A. H. Smithwick; William H. Romme; Michael G. Ryan

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. We considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial location of large fires might respond to climate projections in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE) (Wyoming), a large wildland ecosystem dominated...

  20. Stochastic dynamical models for ecological regime shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Carstensen, Jacob; Madsen, Henrik

    the physical and biological knowledge of the system, and nonlinearities introduced here can generate regime shifts or enhance the probability of regime shifts in the case of stochastic models, typically characterized by a threshold value for the known driver. A simple model for light competition between...... definition and stability of regimes become less subtle. Ecological regime shifts and their modeling must be viewed in a probabilistic manner, particularly if such model results are to be used in ecosystem management....

  1. Legal framework of the environmental regulatory regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Black, D.

    1992-01-01

    The growing concern regarding environmental issues has presented a number of new challenges to those exploring and developing the hydrocarbon reserves located on the Newfoundland continental shelf. Not the least of these challenges is the development of new technologies in the harsh environment of the North Atlantic; in addition, these new technologies must be implemented in an existing and ever-changing regulatory regime. The legal framework of the environmental regulatory regime relating to offshore development in Canada is reviewed along with some of the more important legislation involved in regulating environmental issues in the offshore area. The legal basis for exploration, development, and management of resources located on the Newfoundland continental shelf is the Canada-Newfoundland Accord on Joint Management of Offshore Oil and Gas Resources off Newfoundland and Labrador. Administration of the Accord is the responsibility of the Canada-Newfoundland Offshore Petroleum Board. To be able to apply Canadian laws to the continental shelf, legislation was passed including the Canadian Laws Offshore Application Act as well as the Act implementing the Accord. The latter gives the Offshore Petroleum Board authority to regulate all stages involved in bringing an oil pool to production, such as granting of licenses and work authorizations. Granting of such licenses and authorizations is subject to compliance with environmental requirements, and there are provisions against certain environmental offenses such as spills. Other federal legislation applicable to the offshore includes the Canada Shipping Act and the Canadian Environmental Protection Act

  2. Alberta oil sands royalty regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asgarpour, S.

    2004-01-01

    The long term objective of the Oil Sands Business Unit of Alberta Energy is to pave the way for Alberta's bitumen production to reach 3 million barrels per day by 2020. This presentation described the national government's role in resource development. It was emphasized that since the Crown is the owner of the oil sands resource, it would benefit by providing strategic leadership and by generating a larger royalty base. The oil sands fiscal regime was described with reference to generic royalty, risk sharing, investment, and project economics. Business rule principles were also outlined along with criteria for project expansions. Both upstream and downstream challenges and opportunities were listed. 4 figs

  3. Transitions in European land-management regimes between 1800 and 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Müller, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    , and how they play out in different environmental, socio-economic and cultural contexts, is therefore important for identifying effective policies to successfully address these challenges. In this regard, much can be learned from studying long-term land-use change. We examined the evolution of European...... countries in Europe. We qualitatively grouped drivers into land-management regimes, and compared changes in management regimes across Europe. Our results allowed discerning seven land-management regimes, and highlighted marked heterogeneity regarding the types of management regimes occurring in a particular...

  4. European energy security analysing the EU-Russia energy security regime in terms of interdependence theory

    CERN Document Server

    Esakova, Nataliya

    2012-01-01

    Nataliya Esakova performs an analysis of the interdependencies and the nature of cooperation between energy producing, consuming and transit countries focusing on the gas sector. For the analysis the theoretical framework of the interdependence theory by Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye and the international regime theory are applied to the recent developments within the gas relationship between the European Union and Russia in the last decade. The objective of the analysis is to determine, whether a fundamental regime change in terms of international regime theory is taking place, and, if so, which regime change explanation model in terms of interdependence theory is likely to apply.

  5. European energy security. Analysing the EU-Russia energy security regime in terms of interdependence theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Esakova, Nataliya

    2012-07-01

    Nataliya Esakova performs an analysis of the interdependencies and the nature of cooperation between energy producing, consuming and transit countries focusing on the gas sector. For the analysis the theoretical framework of the interdependence theory by Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye and the international regime theory are applied to the recent developments within the gas relationship between the European Union and Russia in the last decade. The objective of the analysis is to determine, whether a fundamental regime change in terms of international regime theory is taking place, and, if so, which regime change explanation model in terms of interdependence theory is likely to apply. (orig.)

  6. Evaluation and Comparison of Extremal Hypothesis-Based Regime Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishwar Joshi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Regime channels are important for stable canal design and to determine river response to environmental changes, e.g., due to the construction of a dam, land use change, and climate shifts. A plethora of methods is available describing the hydraulic geometry of alluvial rivers in the regime. However, comparison of these methods using the same set of data seems lacking. In this study, we evaluate and compare four different extremal hypothesis-based regime methods, namely minimization of Froude number (MFN, maximum entropy and minimum energy dissipation rate (ME and MEDR, maximum flow efficiency (MFE, and Millar’s method, by dividing regime channel data into sand and gravel beds. The results show that for sand bed channels MFN gives a very high accuracy of prediction for regime channel width and depth. For gravel bed channels we find that MFN and ‘ME and MEDR’ give a very high accuracy of prediction for width and depth. Therefore the notion that extremal hypotheses which do not contain bank stability criteria are inappropriate for use is shown false as both MFN and ‘ME and MEDR’ lack bank stability criteria. Also, we find that bank vegetation has significant influence in the prediction of hydraulic geometry by MFN and ‘ME and MEDR’.

  7. Adaptation in Collaborative Governance Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emerson, Kirk; Gerlak, Andrea K.

    2014-10-01

    Adaptation and the adaptive capacity of human and environmental systems have been of central concern to natural and social science scholars, many of whom characterize and promote the need for collaborative cross-boundary systems that are seen as flexible and adaptive by definition. Researchers who study collaborative governance systems in the public administration, planning and policy literature have paid less attention to adaptive capacity specifically and institutional adaptation in general. This paper bridges the two literatures and finds four common dimensions of capacity, including structural arrangements, leadership, knowledge and learning, and resources. In this paper, we focus on institutional adaptation in the context of collaborative governance regimes and try to clarify and distinguish collaborative capacity from adaptive capacity and their contributions to adaptive action. We posit further that collaborative capacities generate associated adaptive capacities thereby enabling institutional adaptation within collaborative governance regimes. We develop these distinctions and linkages between collaborative and adaptive capacities with the help of an illustrative case study in watershed management within the National Estuary Program.

  8. Measuring the effectiveness of international environmental regimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helm, C.; Sprinz, D.F.

    1999-05-01

    While past research has emphasized the importance of international regimes for international governance, systematic assessments of regime effects are missing. This article derives a standardized measurement concept for the effectiveness of international environmental regimes by developing an operational rational choice calculus to evaluate actual policy simultaneously against a non-regime counterfactual and a collective optimum. Subsequently, the empirical feasibility of the measurement instrument is demonstrated by way of two international treaties regulating transboundary air pollution in Europe. The results demonstrate that the regimes indeed show positive effects - but fall substantially short of the collective optima. (orig.)

  9. Sensitivity to spatial and temporal scale and fire regime inputs in deriving fire regime condition class

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda Tedrow; Wendel J. Hann

    2015-01-01

    The Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) is a composite departure measure that compares current vegetation structure and fire regime to historical reference conditions. FRCC is computed as the average of: 1) Vegetation departure (VDEP) and 2) Regime (frequency and severity) departure (RDEP). In addition to the FRCC rating, the Vegetation Condition Class (VCC) and Regime...

  10. Quality Regimes in Agro-Food Industries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staricco, Juan Ignacio; Ponte, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    In this article, we examine the transformative potential of changing quality regimes in agro-food industries through the analysis of whether Fair Trade wine in Argentina provides a meaningful economic alternative that goes beyond the impact it has on direct beneficiaries. The wine sector has a long...... history in valorizing a variety of quality dimensions, and has developed one of the most complex and sophisticated quality infrastructures, making it an ideal terrain of analysis. Furthermore, it is going through a major process of restructuring in which the battle-lines are drawn along the application......, challenge and re-interpretation of different quality content. Through the lenses of a sector-adjusted version of regulation theory, we show that the Fair Trade wine sector does not substantially deviate from the conventional wine economy in Argentina. Instead of empowering the most vulnerable groups, those...

  11. The national oil companies and the modernization of tax regimes in oil exporting countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez-Padilla, V.

    1994-01-01

    The analysis of tax regimes for oil national companies leads through three conclusions : i) current tax regimes are economically inefficient but they may be corrected without changing the institutional framework ; ii) there is no optimal tax regime but certain principles such as equity, adaptability and neutrality have to be respected; iii) contracts and concessions might be appropriated tools while maintaining the monopoly of the national company but such a choice poses political and ideological problems. (Author). 26 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  12. Revamp urged for Norway's offshore regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that the Norwegian government has come under renewed pressure from offshore operators to fine tune its licensing procedures and tax regime. The need for change was emphasized at the Advanced Petroleum Conference in Stavanger attended by senior personnel from companies active in the Norwegian and British sectors of the North Sea. Companies have had some success in the tax front, winning changes in proposals from Norway's Ministry of Finance for offshore tax reform. The changes were required to offset a general reduction in the corporate tax to 28% from 50.8%. Norsk Shell has told the government that in view of uncertainty about taxes it will not take part in the normal industry-government discussions about what acreage should be included in the 14th licensing round to be announced next year. This action does not bar Shell from participating in the licensing round when it gets under way. Shell has the if the tax package is not changed sharply in its passage through Storting it is unlikely to bid for new licenses

  13. Fire regime in Mediterranean ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondi, Guido; Casula, Paolo; D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo

    2010-05-01

    The analysis of burnt areas time series in Mediterranean regions suggests that ecosystems characterising this area consist primarily of species highly vulnerable to the fire but highly resilient, as characterized by a significant regenerative capacity after the fire spreading. In a few years the area burnt may once again be covered by the same vegetation present before the fire. Similarly, Mediterranean conifer forests, which often refers to plantations made in order to reforest the areas most severely degraded with high erosion risk, regenerate from seed after the fire resulting in high resilience to the fire as well. Only rarely, and usually with negligible damages, fire affects the areas covered by climax species in relation with altitude and soil types (i.e, quercus, fagus, abies). On the basis of these results, this paper shows how the simple Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model is able to reproduce the forest fire regime in terms of number of fires and burned area, describing whit good accuracy the actual fire perimeters. The original Drossel-Schwabl model has been slightly modified in this work by introducing two parameters (probability of propagation and regrowth) specific for each different class of vegetation cover. Using model selection methods based on AIC, the model with the optimal number of classes with different fire behaviour was selected. Two different case studies are presented in this work: Regione Liguria and Regione Sardegna (Italy). Both regions are situated in the center of the Mediterranean and are characterized by a high number of fires and burned area. However, the two regions have very different fire regimes. Sardinia is affected by the fire phenomenon only in summer whilst Liguria is affected by fires also in winter, with higher number of fires and larger burned area. In addition, the two region are very different in vegetation cover. The presence of Mediterranean conifers, (Pinus Pinaster, Pinus Nigra, Pinus halepensis) is quite spread in

  14. Champagne experiences various rhythmical bubbling regimes in a flute.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liger-Belair, Gérard; Tufaile, Alberto; Jeandet, Philippe; Sartorelli, José-Carlos

    2006-09-20

    Bubble trains are seen rising gracefully from a few points on the glass wall (called nucleation sites) whenever champagne is poured into a glass. As time passes during the gas-discharging process, the careful observation of some given bubble columns reveals that the interbubble distance may change suddenly, thus revealing different rhythmical bubbling regimes. Here, it is reported that the transitions between the different bubbling regimes of some nucleation sites during gas discharging is a process which may be ruled by a strong interaction between tiny gas pockets trapped inside the nucleation site and/or also by an interaction between the tiny bubbles just blown from the nucleation site.

  15. Regime switches in the risk-return trade-off

    OpenAIRE

    Marcellino, Massimiliano; Ghysels, Eric; Guerin, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification. We find strong evidence for regime changes in the risk-return relation. This finding is robust to a large range of specifications. In the first regime characterized by low ex-post returns and high volatility, the risk-return relation is reversed, whereas the intuitive positive ...

  16. Neoclassical transport in ERS regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Z.; Tang, W.; Lee, W.W.

    1996-01-01

    The core ion thermal conductivity has been observed to fall below the standard neoclassical level in recent TFTR reversed magnetic shear discharges. Due to the combination of high central q and small local inverse aspect ratio, the ion poloidal gyroradius can be larger than the minor radius and comparable to the pressure gradient scale length in this ERS regime. It is then expected that finite orbit width effects play a key role in modifying the standard picture of neoclassical transport. Specifically, both the trapped particle fraction and the banana orbit width axe reduced by the finite minor radius and possibly by the pressure-gradient-driven radial electric field. In addition, the steep pressure gradient can generate neoclassical poloidal flows which, in turn, could reduce the particle and heat transports. Results from analytic estimates as well as those from full toroidal gyrokinetic neoclassical simulations will be presented

  17. Unitary Housing Regimes in Transition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bengtsson, Bo; Jensen, Lotte

    2013-01-01

    Path dependence is strong in housing institutions and policy. In both Denmark and Sweden, today’s universal and ‘unitary’ (Kemeny) housing regimes can be traced back to institutions that were introduced fifty years back in history or more. Recently, universal and unitary housing systems...... in Scandinavia, and elsewhere, are under challenge from strong political and economic forces. These challenges can be summarized as economic cutbacks, privatization and Europeanization. Although both the Danish and the Swedish housing system are universal and unitary in character, they differ considerably...... in institutional detail. Both systems have corporatist features, however in Denmark public housing is based on local tenant democracy and control, and in Sweden on companies owned and controlled by the municipalities, combined with a centralized system of rent negotiations. In the paper the present challenges...

  18. Reassessing the nuclear liability regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Havinh Phuong

    1985-01-01

    The nuclear liability regime was thoroughly reviewed by nuclear plant operators, officials of regulatory authorities, and legal and insurance experts at the Symposium on Nuclear Third Party Liability and Insurance, held in September 1984 in Munich, Federal Republic of Germany. The symposium highlighted specific areas where adjustments or improvements would be needed in order to cope with practical problems encountered or emerging issues. By focusing on questions of legitimate concern to the public, it also sought to promote confidence in a compensation system for public protection that is in many ways unique. Topics addressed included the following: greater harmonization of the compensation amounts for nuclear damage established in different countries and in territorial scope; the concept of unlimited liability; the time limitation for compensation claims; the problem of proving causation; the concept of nuclear damage; and insurance coverage

  19. Hall effect in hopping regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avdonin, A.; Skupiński, P.; Grasza, K.

    2016-01-01

    A simple description of the Hall effect in the hopping regime of conductivity in semiconductors is presented. Expressions for the Hall coefficient and Hall mobility are derived by considering averaged equilibrium electron transport in a single triangle of localization sites in a magnetic field. Dependence of the Hall coefficient is analyzed in a wide range of temperature and magnetic field values. Our theoretical result is applied to our experimental data on temperature dependence of Hall effect and Hall mobility in ZnO. - Highlights: • Expressions for Hall coefficient and mobility for hopping conductivity are derived. • Theoretical result is compared with experimental curves measured on ZnO. • Simultaneous action of free and hopping conduction channels is considered. • Non-linearity of hopping Hall coefficient is predicted.

  20. Hall effect in hopping regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avdonin, A., E-mail: avdonin@ifpan.edu.pl [Institute of Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Al. Lotników 32/46, 02-668 Warszawa (Poland); Skupiński, P. [Institute of Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Al. Lotników 32/46, 02-668 Warszawa (Poland); Grasza, K. [Institute of Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Al. Lotników 32/46, 02-668 Warszawa (Poland); Institute of Electronic Materials Technology, ul. Wólczyńska 133, 01-919 Warszawa (Poland)

    2016-02-15

    A simple description of the Hall effect in the hopping regime of conductivity in semiconductors is presented. Expressions for the Hall coefficient and Hall mobility are derived by considering averaged equilibrium electron transport in a single triangle of localization sites in a magnetic field. Dependence of the Hall coefficient is analyzed in a wide range of temperature and magnetic field values. Our theoretical result is applied to our experimental data on temperature dependence of Hall effect and Hall mobility in ZnO. - Highlights: • Expressions for Hall coefficient and mobility for hopping conductivity are derived. • Theoretical result is compared with experimental curves measured on ZnO. • Simultaneous action of free and hopping conduction channels is considered. • Non-linearity of hopping Hall coefficient is predicted.

  1. THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL NUCLEAR SAFETY REGIME IN BRAZIL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almeida, C.

    2004-01-01

    A turning point of the world nuclear industry with respect to safety occurred due to the accident at Chernobyl, in 1986. A side from the tragic personal losses and the enormous financial damage, the Chernobyl accident has literally demonstrated that ''a nuclear accident anywhere is an accident everywhere''. The impact was felt immediately by the nuclear industry, with plant cancellations (e.g. Austria), elimination of national programs (e.g. Italy) and general construction delays. However, the reaction of the nuclear industry was equally immediate, which led to the proposal and establishment of a Global Nuclear Safety Regime. This regime is composed of biding international safety conventions, globally accepted safety standard, and a voluntary peer review system. In a previous work, the author has presented in detail the components of this Regime, and briefly discussed its impact in the Brazilian nuclear power organizations, including the Regulatory Body. This work, on the opposite, briefly reviews the Global Nuclear Safety Regime, and concentrates in detail in the discussion of its impact in Brazil, showing how it has produced some changes, and where the peer pressure regime has failed to produce real results

  2. Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift | Science ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia. This manuscript explores various methods of assessing the transition between alternative states in an ecological system described by a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset.

  3. Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana,USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts. Communities of organisms from mammals to microorganisms have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at discrete spatial and temporal scales within ecosystems. Here, a paleoecological record of diatom community change is use

  4. Oil and gas fiscal regimes of the western Canadian provinces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-11-01

    This report compares the fiscal regimes in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. During 1985-1988, federal and provincial governments have made numerous fiscal changes, many in response to the drop in world oil prices. The new fiscal policies generally have reflected governments' willingness to forego revenues in an effort to aid the oil and gas industry, with certain exemptions. Since 1988, changes have reflected trends of consolidation and less government willingness to forego revenues. A federal large corporations capital tax has been introduced, the natural gas exploration holiday in Alberta expired, new oil royalties were introduced, and changes were made in fiscal regimes to accomodate horizontal drilling in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. In this document, the existing corporate tax regime is described. A comparison of fiscal regimes must recognize the differing scale and nature of oil and gas operations among the 4 provinces, with Alberta accounting for 80-90% of Canada's oil and gas productions, while British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are much smaller producers. The document describes Crown royalties and incentives and freehold taxes for each type of fuel (crude oil, natural gas, natural gas byproducts, nonconventional oil). 8 figs

  5. Hydroperiod regime controls the organization of plant species in wetlands

    OpenAIRE

    Foti, R.; del Jesus, M.; Rinaldo, A.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2012-01-01

    With urban, agricultural, and industrial needs growing throughout the past decades, wetland ecosystems have experienced profound changes. Most critically, the biodiversity of wetlands is intimately linked to its hydrologic dynamics, which in turn are being drastically altered by ongoing climate changes. Hydroperiod regimes, e.g., percentage of time a site is inundated, exert critical control in the creation of niches for different plant species in wetlands. However, the spatial signatures of ...

  6. Climate change and wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

    2013-01-01

    Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

  7. The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, David M J S; Balch, Jennifer; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J; Cochrane, Mark A; D'Antonio, Carla M; Defries, Ruth; Johnston, Fay H; Keeley, Jon E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Kull, Christian A; Mack, Michelle; Moritz, Max A; Pyne, Stephen; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Sodhi, Navjot S; Swetnam, Thomas W; Whittaker, Robert

    2011-12-01

    Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire-making species, but 'natural' (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human-set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from 'natural' background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke-related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas-induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding

  8. The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, David M.J.S.; Balch, Jennifer; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J.; Cochrane, Mark A.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; DeFries, Ruth; Johnston, Fay H.; Keeley, Jon E.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Kull, Christian A.; Michelle, Mack; Moritz, Max A.; Pyne, Stephen; Roos, Christopher I.; Scott, Andrew C.; Sodhi, Navjot S.; Swetnam, Thomas W.

    2011-01-01

    Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire-making species, but 'natural' (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human-set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from 'natural' background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke-related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas-induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding

  9. De Facto Regimes in International Law

    OpenAIRE

    Essen, Jonte van

    2012-01-01

    The ambiguous position of de facto regimes in international law has long been the subject of scholarly debate and a source of political conflict. An assessment of the current standing of these regimes in international law and the consequences of actions by international actors on this status has, however, been long overdue. The manner in which de facto regimes are regarded internationally has serious consequences for the individuals under the influence of this legal grey area. Therefore, the ...

  10. Interacting Regional-Scale Regime Shifts for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leadley, P.; Proenca, V.; Fernandez-Manjarres, J.; Pereira, H.M.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Biggs, R.; Bruley, E.; Cheung, W.; Cooper, D.; Figueiredo, J.; Gilman, E.; Guenette, S.; Hurtt, G.; Mbow, C.; Oberdorff, T.; Revenga, C.; Scharlemann, J.P.W.; Scholes, R.; Smith, M.S.; Sumaila, U.R.; Walpole, M.

    2014-01-01

    Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human-environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are

  11. ANALYSING PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT IN PUBLIC SERVICES: HOW USEFUL IS THE CONCEPT OF A PERFORMANCE REGIME?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Steve; Nutley, Sandra; Downe, James; Grace, Clive

    2016-03-01

    Approaches to performance assessment have been described as 'performance regimes', but there has been little analysis of what is meant by this concept and whether it has any real value. We draw on four perspectives on regimes - 'institutions and instruments', 'risk regulation regimes', 'internal logics and effects' and 'analytics of government' - to explore how the concept of a multi-dimensional regime can be applied to performance assessment in public services. We conclude that the concept is valuable. It helps to frame comparative and longitudinal analyses of approaches to performance assessment and draws attention to the ways in which public service performance regimes operate at different levels, how they change over time and what drives their development. Areas for future research include analysis of the impacts of performance regimes and interactions between their visible features (such as inspections, performance indicators and star ratings) and the veiled rationalities which underpin them.

  12. Flow regime and deposition pattern of evaporating binary mixture droplet suspended with particles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Xin; Duan, Fei

    2016-02-01

    The flow regimes and the deposition pattern have been investigated by changing the ethanol concentration in a water-based binary mixture droplet suspended with alumina nanoparticles. To visualize the flow patterns, Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) has been applied in the binary liquid droplet containing the fluorescent microspheres. Three distinct flow regimes have been revealed in the evaporation. In Regime I, the vortices and chaotic flows are found to carry the particles to the liquid-vapor interface and to promote the formation of particle aggregation. The aggregates move inwards in Regime II as induced by the Marangoni flow along the droplet free surface. Regime III is dominated by the drying of the left water and the capillary flow driving particles radially outward is observed. The relative weightings of Regimes I and II, which are enhanced with an increasing load of ethanol, determine the motion of the nanoparticles and the formation of the final drying pattern.

  13. Proliferation Control Regimes: Background and Status

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nikitin, Mary B; Kerr, Paul; Bowman, Steve; Hildreth, Steven A

    2008-01-01

    .... national security interests. Multilateral regimes were established to restrict trade in nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and missile technologies, and to monitor their civil applications...

  14. Proliferation Control Regimes: Background and Status

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Squassoni, Sharon; Bowman, Steve; Hildreth, Steven A

    2006-01-01

    .... national security interests. Multilateral regimes were established to restrict trade in nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and missile technologies, and to monitor their civil applications...

  15. The legacy of large regime shifts in shallow lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramstack Hobbs, Joy M; Hobbs, William O; Edlund, Mark B; Zimmer, Kyle D; Theissen, Kevin M; Hoidal, Natalie; Domine, Leah M; Hanson, Mark A; Herwig, Brian R; Cotner, James B

    2016-12-01

    Ecological shifts in shallow lakes from clear-water macrophyte-dominated to turbid-water phytoplankton-dominated are generally thought of as rapid short-term transitions. Diatom remains in sediment records from shallow lakes in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America provide new evidence that the long-term ecological stability of these lakes is defined by the legacy of large regime shifts. We examine the modern and historical stability of 11 shallow lakes. Currently, four of the lakes are in a clear-water state, three are consistently turbid-water, and four have been observed to change state from year to year (transitional). Lake sediment records spanning the past 150-200 yr suggest that (1) the diatom assemblage is characteristic of either clear or turbid lakes, (2) prior to significant landscape alteration, all of the lakes existed in a regime of a stable clear-water state, (3) lakes that are currently classified as turbid or transitional have experienced one strong regime shift over the past 150-200 yr and have since remained in a regime where turbid-water predominates, and (4) top-down impacts to the lake food-web from fish introductions appear to be the dominant driver of strong regime shifts and not increased nutrient availability. Based on our findings we demonstrate a method that could be used by lake managers to identify lakes that have an ecological history close to the clear-turbid regime threshold; such lakes might more easily be returned to a clear-water state through biomanipulation. The unfortunate reality is that many of these lakes are now part of a managed landscape and will likely require continued intervention. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  16. Oil and gas fiscal regime review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-04-01

    Poor levels of oil and gas industry profitability, declining activity, and increasing provincial budgetary pressures led to formation of a joint government/industry committee to review fiscal systems in the oil and gas industry and identify areas for potential change. An overview is presented of the development of oil and gas resources in Saskatchewan, showing that reserves and production peaked in 1966. Although reserves and production declined steadily until the early 1980s, some growth has occurred in the past decade, largely due to the influence of horizontal drilling. The province's oil and gas royalty structure is then summarized, giving the classes of oil and gas production and the royalty applicable to each class, as well as incentives available to encourage exploration and development activity. Opportunities for increased exploration and development are identified in two categories (existing wells and new wells) and impacts of possible changes in the existing royalty and incentive regime are discussed. Recommendations are provided to promote new capital investment in the industry and to extend the economic life of existing wells which are at or near the point of abandonment or suspension. 40 figs., 16 tabs

  17. Capacitance densitometer for flow regime identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipp, R.L. Jr.

    1978-01-01

    This invention relates to a capacitance densitometer for determining the flow regime of a two-phase flow system. A two-element capacitance densitometer is used in conjunction with a conventional single-beam gamma densitometer to unambiguously identify the prevailing flow regime and the average density of a flowing fluid

  18. TARIFFS AND REGIMES OF POWER CONSUMPTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V. Batsova

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of regimes of electro-consumption at RUP «BMZ» is carried out. It is shown that in conditions of rapid growth of prices for electric power one of the conditions of reduction of production expenses is to be the increase of efficiency of the electro-consumption regimes control.

  19. Strengthening the nuclear non-proliferation regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, J.

    2003-01-01

    Although the nuclear non-proliferation regime has enjoyed considerable success, today the regime has never been under greater threat. Three states have challenged the objectives of the NPT, and there is a technology challenge - the spread of centrifuge enrichment technology and know-how. A major issue confronting the international community is, how to deal with a determined proliferator? Despite this gloomy scenario, however, the non-proliferation regime has considerable strengths - many of which can be developed further. The regime comprises complex interacting and mutually reinforcing elements. At its centre is the NPT - with IAEA safeguards as the Treaty's verification mechanism. Important complementary elements include: restraint in the supply and the acquisition of sensitive technologies; multilateral regimes such as the CTBT and proposed FMCT; various regional and bilateral regimes; the range of security and arms control arrangements outside the nuclear area (including other WMD regimes); and the development of proliferation-resistant technologies. Especially important are political incentives and sanctions in support of non-proliferation objectives. This paper outlines some of the key issues facing the non-proliferation regime

  20. Synergies between nonproliferation regimes: A pragmatic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Findlay, Trevor; Meier, Oliver

    2001-01-01

    Full text: With the recent progress in establishing international nonproliferation regimes, the question of synergies between different verification and monitoring regimes is becoming more acute. Three multilateral and universal nonproliferation organisations covering safeguards on civil nuclear materials, nuclear testing, and chemical weapons are up and running. A regime on biological weapons is under negotiation. Several regional organisations concerned with monitoring nonproliferation commitments in the nuclear field are in place; others are being established. Past discussions on synergies between these regimes have suffered from being too far-reaching. These discussions often have not reflected adequately the political difficulties of cooperation between regimes with different membership, scope and institutional set-up. This paper takes a pragmatic look at exploiting synergies and identifies some potential and real overlaps in the work between different verification regimes. It argues for a bottom-up approach and identifies building blocks for collaboration between verification regimes. By realising such, more limited potential for cooperation, the ground could be prepared for exploiting other synergies between these regimes. (author)

  1. Land-use regime shifts: an analytical framework and agenda for future land-use research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navin Ramankutty

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A key research frontier in global change research lies in understanding processes of land change to inform predictive models of future land states. We believe that significant advances in the field are hampered by limited attention being paid to critical points of change termed land-use regime shifts. We present an analytical framework for understanding land-use regime shifts. We survey historical events of land change and perform in-depth case studies of soy and shrimp development in Latin America to demonstrate the role of preconditions, triggers, and self-reinforcing processes in driving land-use regime shifts. Whereas the land-use literature demonstrates a good understanding of within-regime dynamics, our understanding of the drivers of land-use regime shifts is limited to ex post facto explications. Theoretical and empirical advances are needed to better understand the dynamics and implications of land-use regime shifts. We draw insights from the regime-shifts literature to propose a research agenda for studying land change.

  2. Alternative pricing regimes in Ontario : exploring the impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2006-01-01

    Legislative goals were recently established in Ontario to promote reliability and quality of electricity service and to ensure that distribution rates for customers remain reasonable. This presentation explored the effect of changing electricity pricing structures on residential customers in Ontario. This study investigated a period between May to December 2005, in the town of Milton, Ontario. Monthly demand was measured for each month, and monthly weighted averages were presented. Residents with electric heating were removed from the sample. Four pricing structure scenarios were examined: (1) flat rates; (2) time-of-use pricing regimes; (3) real time pricing regimes; and (4) critical peak pricing. Average monthly consumption rates for July and August for all 4 scenarios were presented. Results for time-of-use were compared to flat rates, which showed a slight increase in monthly costs. Real time average monthly electricity costs were significantly higher. Time-of-use costs increased by 57 per cent during the periods examined. Real time pricing regimes resulted in a 196 per cent rise in costs. It was concluded that more research must be done to explore the policy implications of pricing regimes and their effect on consumer behaviour. refs., tabs., figs

  3. De Facto Regimes in International Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonte van Essen

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The ambiguous position of de facto regimes in international law has long been the subject of scholarly debate and a source of political conflict. An assessment of the current standing of these regimes in international law and the consequences of actions by international actors on this status has, however, been long overdue. The manner in which de facto regimes are regarded internationally has serious consequences for the individuals under the influence of this legal grey area. Therefore, the study into this problem and possible solutions is of great significance. The 2011 developments in Northern Africa underline the need of contemporary research into this area. This essay aims to clarify the position of de facto regimes in international law and the influence on their status by actions of international actors. The author first argues that de facto regimes have rights and obligations under international law, which provide them with (some form of international legal personality. He then pleads for a reconsideration of the contemporary legal treatment of these regimes. The author argues against the current system of government recognition and proposes a system that better addresses the needs of both de facto regimes and the international community. 

  4. Preditores de mudanças nos regimes terapêuticos para o tratamento de Aids em crianças Predictors of changes in drug regimens for treating AIDS in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Ribeiro Macedo

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Identificar as causas de mudanças de esquemas terapêuticos no tratamento de Aids em crianças contaminadas por transmissão vertical. Estudo caso-controle, sendo o grupo controle constituído de 49 crianças que não efetuaram troca de esquema antirretroviral, e o grupo caso, de 62 crianças que já efetuaram troca de janeiro de 2000 a dezembro de 2005. Foram utilizados dados do prontuário e roteiro de entrevista semi-estruturada. A análise dos dados foi pelo programa SPSS, usado teste qui-quadrado e regressão logística. As principais causas para mudança do tratamento foram: piora virológica (48,4%, imunológica (46,6% e clínica (35,5% dos pacientes. O ajuste dos dados através de análise da regressão logística demonstrou que a intolerância medicamentosa foi a variável que mais contribui para a mudança da medicação (OR ajustado:79,94; IC95%:6,28-1034,55 A adesão não foi apontada como responsável pela troca de tratamento antirretroviral, esse fato foi atribuído à organização do serviço e a atuação da equipe interdisciplinar.To identify the causes of changes in therapeutic regimens for treating AIDS in children infected through vertical transmission. This was a case-control study in which the control group consisted of 49 children who had not had any changes to their antiretroviral regimen and the case group consisted of 62 children who had had changes between January 2000 and December 2005. Data from the patients' medical files and a semistructured interview were used. The data analysis was carried out using the SPSS software, and the chi-square test and logistic regression were applied. The main causes of changes in treatment were: increased viral load (48.4%, poor immunological response (46.6% and clinical worsening (35.5% of the patients. The adjustment of the data through logistic regression analysis showed that drug intolerance was the variable that contributed most to the change in medication (adjusted OR: 79

  5. Amendment of the Foreign lnvestment Juridical regime in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Vargas Guzman

    1992-12-01

    Full Text Available Colombia, integrated in the Andean Group, is now going through a period of economic and institutional modernization and has initiated a serie of modifications, specially of its international trade, finantial, tax, exchange and labour regimes. These have involved some changes which guarantee legislative stability to investors and thus set the grounds for the foreign participation in the economic modernization and internationalization process in Colombia. These facilities need the support of developed countries to achieve its aims.

  6. Analysis of electrical circuits with variable load regime parameters projective geometry method

    CERN Document Server

    Penin, A

    2015-01-01

    This book introduces electric circuits with variable loads and voltage regulators. It allows to define invariant relationships for various parameters of regime and circuit sections and to prove the concepts characterizing these circuits. Generalized equivalent circuits are introduced. Projective geometry is used for the interpretation of changes of operating regime parameters. Expressions of normalized regime parameters and their changes are presented. Convenient formulas for the calculation of currents are given. Parallel voltage sources and the cascade connection of multi-port networks are d

  7. Technology and transition : ‘Progressive Evolution of Regimes and the Consequences for Energy Regime Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Read, S.A.; Lindhult, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Transition of energy systems has been under-theorised. We have argued previously that energy efficiency as a strategy for fossil fuel replacement is inadequate as energy demand is not being reduced by efficiency alone. This paper is intended to elaborate further on the reasons. We require better

  8. Feasibility of a dual regime gyrotron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawant, Ashwini; Jain, Prerit; Kartikeyan, M.V.

    2012-01-01

    The design concept of a 42/84 GHz, 500 kW, CW, dual-regime gyrotron for ECRH of plasma in an experimental Tokamak will be presented in this paper. Operation at 42 GHz is fundamental where as that in 84 GHz will be second harmonic so that a similar guidance system will be retained for dual regime operation. In this paper, the mode competition and mode selection procedures are presented for such a dual regime operation. Cold cavity design and self-consistent calculations will be carried out for power and efficiencies. (author)

  9. Can Old Regimes Handle New Wars?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Troels

    Research on New Wars argues that since the 1980s states and regimes have become more vulnerable to violence from non-state actors. Two developments in the Sahel region support the New Wars thesis: an increase in Islamist radicalization and new access to the global black market, both of which......, the paper finds that regimes in the Sahel region are still able to cope with the rise in non-state threats. The paper first shortly compares the longevity of the present regimes in the Sahel region to all previous ones, second examines in-depth how Chad and Mali fight the insurgents. Findings are that since...

  10. Framing of regimes and transition strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jens Stissing

    2012-01-01

    This article suggests that transition strategies are always formulated in the context of specific representations of the regime and the challenges it faces. It is argued that the framing of a regime affects the envisioning of transition strategies. An analysis of the current development agenda...... for the housing construction sector in Denmark reveals the relevance and impacts of different regime framings. It is proposed that the ability to cope with framing issues as situated and political processes is at the core of the governance of transitions....

  11. FEL in transverse optical klystron regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scarlat, F.; Baltateanu, N.

    1994-01-01

    Among all operational regimes of free electron laser (FEL), the transverse optical regime (TOK) requires the least stringent electron beam parameters. The device associated to this regime, also defined as FEL with two or more components, consists of two or more identical interaction sections separated by one or more drift distances among themselves. Starting from the motion equations which describe the interaction between an electron and the radiation inside the undulator, one can obtain some practical expressions for the calculation of the efficiency of the energy transfer from the electron to the radiation, and the gain of the external coherent radiation for a FEL in TOK with three cavities. (Author)

  12. The international climate regime: towards consolidation collapse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berthaud, P.; Cavard, D.; Criqui, P.

    2003-10-01

    This article deals with the different modalities that exist to manage a problem of collective action in the field of climate negotiation. It uses two concepts of the International Political Economy (IPE): the concept of International Regime (IR) and the concept of Hegemony and / or Leadership. The course the international negotiation has taken between 1992 (Rio Convention) and march 2001 (the US rejection of the Kyoto Protocol of 1997) leads us, first, to question the conditions of existence as well as the viability of a non-hegemonic International Regime (Part One). Then, we discuss the perspectives for the 'post - Kyoto' era. After having examined the preferences of the three most active actors in the negotiation (USA, Europe, G77 + China) combined with the leadership capacities they possess, we identify three scenarios for the future: i) anarchy, ii) an international regime under the American hegemony, iii) an international regime under the European leadership (Part Two). (author)

  13. The CTBT regime, significance and potential benefits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Hong-Lae

    2002-01-01

    This presentation briefly outlines the CTBT's background, describes the activities of the Preparatory Commission, the verification regime, the role of the National Data Centres and international coopereation. The objectives of the Nairobi workshop are listed

  14. Improving the taxation regime for electric power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fjermeros, Morten; Ilstad, Kristine

    2003-01-01

    In Norway, the present taxation regime for electric power is very complex. The power companies are currently charged with ordinary tax on profits, tax on economic rent, tax on natural resources and land tax. In addition there are the rules about licence fees, yield of power due to concession conditions, and reversion. The Norwegian Electricity Industry Association (EBL), assisted by a firm of lawyers, has proposed an improvement over the current taxation regime

  15. Brazil in the global anticorruption regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Tourinho

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Brazilian anticorruption law and institutions were significantly transformed in recent decades. This article traces those transformations and explains how the international anticorruption and money laundering regimes contributed to their development. It argues that those international regimes were internalised in the Brazilian system through three mechanisms: inspiration and legitimation, coercion, and implementation support, and were critical to the transformation of Brazilian institutions.

  16. Portfolio Selection with Jumps under Regime Switching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Zhao

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a continuous-time version of the mean-variance portfolio selection model with jumps under regime switching. The portfolio selection is proposed and analyzed for a market consisting of one bank account and multiple stocks. The random regime switching is assumed to be independent of the underlying Brownian motion and jump processes. A Markov chain modulated diffusion formulation is employed to model the problem.

  17. Do discriminatory pay regimes unleash antisocial behavior?

    OpenAIRE

    Grosch, Kerstin; Rau, Holger A.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we analyze how pay-regime procedures affect antisocial behavior at the workplace. In a real-effort experiment we vary two determinants of pay regimes: discrimination and justification of payments by performance. In our Discrimination treatment half of the workforce is randomly selected and promoted and participate in a tournament (high-income workers) whereas the other half receives no payment (lowincome workers). Afterwards, antisocial behavior is measured by a Joy-of-Destruct...

  18. Compulsory licensing in Canada and Thailand: comparing regimes to ensure legitimate use of the WTO rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lybecker, Kristina M; Fowler, Elisabeth

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines two recent examples of compulsory licensing legislation: one globally embraced regime and one internationally controversial regime operating under the same WTO rules. In particular, we consider Canadian legislation and the use of compulsory licensing for HIV/AIDS drugs destined for a developing country. This is then contrasted with the conditions under which Thai authorities are pursuing compulsory licenses, the outcomes of their compulsory licenses, as well as the likely impact of the Thai policy. Finally, we construct a rubric to evaluate characteristics of a successful regime. This is used to analyze the Canadian and Thai regimes and frame the expected implications of each national policy. It is hoped that the assessment will guide changes to compulsory licensing design to ensure that legitimate regimes are embraced while illegitimate ones are disallowed.

  19. State Structure and Political Regime Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul – Iulian Nedelcu

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The political regime is the concrete form of organization and functioning of political system andtherefore, the regime means the concrete way of organize, institutionalize and function a political systemand of the exercise of political power by a social-political force in a social community or global socialistem. The political regime is not limited to institutions and state bodies, but it covers the entire politicalsystem. Form of expression in social practice plan is the result of balance of forces between classes ofcitizens, organizations, between them and civil society and politics.Designates the concrete form ofgovernment formation and organization, of state bodies, in aspect of their characteristics and principles, therelations between them and other state bodies, and also as the relationship between them and otherinstitutionalized forms of political systems. Instead, the political regime is an explicit realization ofaxiological operations, a specific hierarchy of values, in general and political values, in particular. Even ifsome elements of the political regime overlap to some extent and in some respects, those of form orstructure of guvernamnt state, thus they dissolve his identity, distinct quality of being specific traits of thepolitical regime.

  20. Working in a difficult regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pesic, M.; Cupac, S.

    1996-01-01

    RA and RB, the two research reactors at the Vinca Institute of Nuclear sciences were built in the late 1950s. Both were designed according to the national (former Yugoslavia) plan for developing nuclear energy. Although some modifications have been successfully made, they are now suffering from problems of ageing and funding since the attitude to the country's nuclear program has changed. Some of the equipment is fit for a museum. But the problem of ageing components is only one of the difficulties faced by the operators, they also cope with the political and financial conditions prevailing in the country

  1. Adult learning, education, and the labour market inthe employability regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Staffan Nilsson

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to draw on the research and scholarly literature to explorethe changing discourses and perspectives concerning adult learning, education, and thelabour market in the employability regime. The focus of the nalysis is a Nordic context.The dominant employability regime maintains a technical-rational perspective onlearning and employability. Education is predominantly regarded as an instrumentalpreparation for the labour market. The future demands of the labour market are largelyunknown, however, and vocational and professional training may not provide sufficientpreparation for the increasing complexities of work. Theoretical discussions have beendominated by an alleged mismatch between individual competence and thequalifications that are required in the world of work. There is no consensus regardinghow the gap should be described, explained, or bridged. New demands on educationaldesign have emerged, and ideas related to liberal education and ‘bildung’ have beenreinserted into the political agenda, offering general preparation for a wider array ofchallenges.

  2. Envisioning, quantifying, and managing thermal regimes on river networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steel, E. Ashley; Beechie, Timothy J.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Fullerton, Aimee H.

    2017-01-01

    Water temperatures fluctuate in time and space, creating diverse thermal regimes on river networks. Temporal variability in these thermal landscapes has important biological and ecological consequences because of nonlinearities in physiological reactions; spatial diversity in thermal landscapes provides aquatic organisms with options to maximize growth and survival. However, human activities and climate change threaten to alter the dynamics of riverine thermal regimes. New data and tools can identify particular facets of the thermal landscape that describe ecological and management concerns and that are linked to human actions. The emerging complexity of thermal landscapes demands innovations in communication, opens the door to exciting research opportunities on the human impacts to and biological consequences of thermal variability, suggests improvements in monitoring programs to better capture empirical patterns, provides a framework for suites of actions to restore and protect the natural processes that drive thermal complexity, and indicates opportunities for better managing thermal landscapes.

  3. Human impacts on river ice regime in the Carpathian Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takács, Katalin; Nagy, Balázs; Kern, Zoltán

    2014-05-01

    River ice is a very important component of the cryosphere, and is especially sensitive to climatic variability. Historical records of appearance or disappearance and timing of ice phenomena are useful indicators for past climatic variations (Williams, 1970). Long-term observations of river ice freeze-up and break-up dates are available for many rivers in the temperate or cold region to detect and analyze the effects of climate change on river ice regime. The ice regime of natural rivers is influenced by climatic, hydrological and morphological factors. Regular ice phenomena observation mostly dates back to the 19th century. During this long-term observation period, the human interventions affecting the hydrological and morphological factors have become more and more intensive (Beltaos and Prowse, 2009). The anthropogenic effects, such as river regulation, hydropower use or water pollution causes different changes in river ice regime (Ashton, 1986). To decrease the occurrence of floods and control the water discharge, nowadays most of the rivers are regulated. River regulation changes the morphological parameters of the river bed: the aim is to create solid and equable bed size and stream gradient to prevent river ice congestion. For the satisfaction of increasing water demands hydropower is also used. River damming results a condition like a lake upstream to the barrage; the flow velocity and the turbulence are low, so this might be favourable for river ice appearance and freeze-up (Starosolsky, 1990). Water pollution affects ice regime in two ways; certain water contaminants change the physical characteristics of the water, e.g. lessens the freezing point of the water. Moreover the thermal stress effect of industrial cooling water and communal wastewater is also important; in winter these water sources are usually warmer, than the water body of the river. These interventions result different changes in the characteristic features of river ice regime. Selected

  4. Multiple growth regimes: Insights from unified growth theory

    OpenAIRE

    Galor, Oded

    2007-01-01

    Unified Growth Theory uncovers the forces that contributed to the existence of multiple growth regimes and the emergence of convergence clubs. It suggests that differential timing of take-offs from stagnation to growth segmented economies into three fundamental regimes: slow growing economies in a Malthusian regime, fast growing countries in a sustained growth regime, and economies in the transition between these regimes. In contrast to existing research that links regime switching thresholds...

  5. Causas estruturais e consequências dos regimes internacionais: regimes como variáveis intervenientes

    OpenAIRE

    Krasner, Stephen D.

    2012-01-01

    Os regimes internacionais são definidos como princípios, normas, regras e procedimentos de tomada de decisões ao redor dos quais as expectativas dos atores convergem em uma dada área-tema. Como ponto de partida, os regimes são conceituados como variáveis intervenientes, estando entre fatores causais básicos e os resultados e comportamentos relacionados. Há três visões a respeito da importância dos regimes: as orientações estruturais convencionais desvalorizam os regimes como sendo, na melhor ...

  6. A Review of the Detection Methods for Climate Regime Shifts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qunqun Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An abrupt climate change means that the climate system shifts from a steady state to another steady state. Study on the phenomenon and theory of the abrupt climate change is a new research field of modern climatology, and it is of great significance for the prediction of future climate change. The climate regime shift is one of the most common forms of abrupt climate change, which mainly refers to the statistical significant changes on the variable of climate system at one time scale. These detection methods can be roughly divided into five categories based on different types of abrupt changes, namely, abrupt mean value change, abrupt variance change, abrupt frequency change, abrupt probability density change, and the multivariable analysis. The main research progress of abrupt climate change detection methods is reviewed. What is more, some actual applications of those methods in observational data are provided. With the development of nonlinear science, many new methods have been presented for detecting an abrupt dynamic change in recent years, which is useful supplement for the abrupt change detection methods.

  7. Stochastic Parametrisations and Regime Behaviour of Atmospheric Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Hannah; Moroz, Irene; Palmer, Tim

    2013-04-01

    The presence of regimes is a characteristic of non-linear, chaotic systems (Lorenz, 2006). In the atmosphere, regimes emerge as familiar circulation patterns such as the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian Blocking events. In recent years there has been much interest in the problem of identifying and studying atmospheric regimes (Solomon et al, 2007). In particular, how do these regimes respond to an external forcing such as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions? The importance of regimes in observed trends over the past 50-100 years indicates that in order to predict anthropogenic climate change, our climate models must be able to represent accurately natural circulation regimes, their statistics and variability. It is well established that representing model uncertainty as well as initial condition uncertainty is important for reliable weather forecasts (Palmer, 2001). In particular, stochastic parametrisation schemes have been shown to improve the skill of weather forecast models (e.g. Berner et al., 2009; Frenkel et al., 2012; Palmer et al., 2009). It is possible that including stochastic physics as a representation of model uncertainty could also be beneficial in climate modelling, enabling the simulator to explore larger regions of the climate attractor including other flow regimes. An alternative representation of model uncertainty is a perturbed parameter scheme, whereby physical parameters in subgrid parametrisation schemes are perturbed about their optimal value. Perturbing parameters gives a greater control over the ensemble than multi-model or multiparametrisation ensembles, and has been used as a representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction (Stainforth et al., 2005; Rougier et al., 2009). We investigate the effect of including representations of model uncertainty on the regime behaviour of a simulator. A simple chaotic model of the atmosphere, the Lorenz '96 system, is used to study

  8. Challenges in Modeling Disturbance Regimes and Their Impacts in Arctic and Boreal Ecosystems (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A. D.; Rupp, T. S.; Kurz, W.

    2013-12-01

    Disturbances in arctic and boreal terrestrial ecosystems influence services provided by these ecosystems to society. In particular, changes in disturbance regimes in northern latitudes have uncertain consequences for the climate system. A major challenge for the scientific community is to develop the capability to predict how the frequency, severity and resultant impacts of disturbance regimes will change in response to future changes in climate projected for northern high latitudes. Here we compare what is known about drivers and impacts of wildfire, phytophagous insect pests, and thermokarst disturbance to illustrate the complexities in predicting future changes in disturbance regimes and their impacts in arctic and boreal regions. Much of the research on predicting fire has relied on the use of drivers related to fire weather. However, changes in vegetation, such as increases in broadleaf species, associated with intensified fire regimes have the potential to influence future fire regimes through negative feedbacks associated with reduced flammability. Phytophagous insect outbreaks have affected substantial portions of the boreal region in the past, but frequently the range of the tree host is larger than the range of the insect. There is evidence that a number of insect species are expanding their range in response to climate change. Major challenges to predicting outbreaks of phytophagous insects include modeling the effects of climate change on insect growth and maturation, winter mortality, plant host health, the synchrony of insect life stages and plant host phenology, and changes in the ranges of insect pests. Moreover, Earth System Models often simplify the representation of vegetation characteristics, e.g. the use of plant functional types, providing insufficient detail to link to insect population models. Thermokarst disturbance occurs when the thawing of ice-rich permafrost results in substantial ground subsidence. In the boreal forest, thermokarst can

  9. Smoke consequences of new wildfire regimes driven by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald McKenzie; Uma Shankar; Robert E. Keane; E. Natasha Stavros; Warren E. Heilman; Douglas G. Fox; Allen C. Riebau

    2014-01-01

    Smoke from wildfires has adverse biological and social consequences, and various lines of evidence suggest that smoke from wildfires in the future may be more intense and widespread, demanding that methods be developed to address its effects on people, ecosystems, and the atmosphere. In this paper, we present the essential ingredients of a modeling system for...

  10. Differential soil respiration responses to changing hydrologic regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent J. Pacific; Brian L. McGlynn; Diego A. Riveros-Iregui; Howard E. Epstein; Daniel L. Welsch

    2009-01-01

    Soil respiration is tightly coupled to the hydrologic cycle (i.e., snowmelt and precipitation timing and magnitude). We examined riparian and hillslope soil respiration across a wet (2005) and a dry (2006) growing season in a subalpine catchment. When comparing the riparian zones, cumulative CO2 efflux was 33% higher, and peak efflux occurred 17 days earlier during the...

  11. Seasonal changes in the denitrification regime of the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naqvi, S.W.A.; Noronha, R.J.; Somasundar, K.; SenGupta, R.

    ), it is possible to determine the end-members' compositions with reasonable confidence. We selected two stations to serve as the northern and southern end-members. The northern end-member (EM no. 1, AN 2346; Lat. 22°15.9'N, Long. 60°55.9'E) was occupied during... a cruise of Atlantis 11 in January 1977, and the southern end-member (EM no. 2, 110S; Lat. 15°00. I'N, Long. 72°00'E) was sampled in August 1987. The rationale of selection was as follows. Both the stations were apparently located outside the zone...

  12. Optimal spectral tracking--adapting to dynamic regime change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brittain, John-Stuart; Halliday, David M

    2011-01-30

    Real world data do not always obey the statistical restraints imposed upon them by sophisticated analysis techniques. In spectral analysis for instance, an ergodic process--the interchangeability of temporal for spatial averaging--is assumed for a repeat-trial design. Many evolutionary scenarios, such as learning and motor consolidation, do not conform to such linear behaviour and should be approached from a more flexible perspective. To this end we previously introduced the method of optimal spectral tracking (OST) in the study of trial-varying parameters. In this extension to our work we modify the OST routines to provide an adaptive implementation capable of reacting to dynamic transitions in the underlying system state. In so doing, we generalise our approach to characterise both slow-varying and rapid fluctuations in time-series, simultaneously providing a metric of system stability. The approach is first applied to a surrogate dataset and compared to both our original non-adaptive solution and spectrogram approaches. The adaptive OST is seen to display fast convergence and desirable statistical properties. All three approaches are then applied to a neurophysiological recording obtained during a study on anaesthetic monitoring. Local field potentials acquired from the posterior hypothalamic region of a deep brain stimulation patient undergoing anaesthesia were analysed. The characterisation of features such as response delay, time-to-peak and modulation brevity are considered. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Nonviolent Civil Disobedience: Creating Legitimate Regime Change in Iran

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Selman, Jr, John T

    2007-01-01

    .... These transitions were hastened by nonviolent civil disobedience. Although nonviolent civil disobedience is a common form of political action throughout the world, many political observers do not understand its nature and often underestimate its effect...

  14. The effects of anticipated future change in monetary policy regime

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Antal, J.; Brázdik, František

    -, č. 15 (2007), s. 1-53 ISSN 1803-2397 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : macroeconomics * new Keynesian DSGE models * small open economy Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cnb.cz/m2export/sites/www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2007_15.pdf

  15. Progress towards a global nuclear liability regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    During its April 2014 meeting, the Steering Committee for Nuclear Energy held a policy debate on 'Progress towards a Global Nuclear Liability Regime'. The Steering Committee heard presentations from several experts on nuclear liability issues. To prepare the delegates to the Steering Committee for the policy debate, the NEA Secretariat prepared a background note on the status of the nuclear liability regimes, as well as on current issues and challenges in implementing the regimes. This article is based on the background note and is intended to provide basic information on the relevant international conventions and an overview of recent developments to enhance the understanding of the legal framework in which policy-makers and practitioners are engaging to respond to the call for broader adherence to the international liability instruments. (authors)

  16. Determination of the Hall Thruster Operating Regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    L. Dorf; V. Semenov; Y. Raitses; N.J. Fisch

    2002-04-01

    A quasi one-dimensional (1-D) steady-state model of the Hall thruster is presented. For the same discharge voltage two operating regimes are possible -- with and without the anode sheath. For given mass flow rate, magnetic field profile and discharge voltage a unique solution can be constructed, assuming that the thruster operates in one of the regimes. However, we show that for a given temperature profile the applied discharge voltage uniquely determines the operating regime: for discharge voltages greater than a certain value, the sheath disappears. That result is obtained over a wide range of incoming neutral velocities, channel lengths and widths, and cathode plane locations. It is also shown that a good correlation between the quasi 1-D model and experimental results can be achieved by selecting an appropriate electron mobility and temperature profile

  17. Human influence on California fire regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syphard, Alexandra D; Radeloff, Volker C; Keeley, Jon E; Hawbaker, Todd J; Clayton, Murray K; Stewart, Susan I; Hammer, Roger B

    2007-07-01

    Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the

  18. Causas estruturais e consequências dos regimes internacionais: regimes como variáveis intervenientes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen D. Krasner

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Os regimes internacionais são definidos como princípios, normas, regras e procedimentos de tomada de decisões ao redor dos quais as expectativas dos atores convergem em uma dada área-tema. Como ponto de partida, os regimes são conceituados como variáveis intervenientes, estando entre fatores causais básicos e os resultados e comportamentos relacionados. Há três visões a respeito da importância dos regimes: as orientações estruturais convencionais desvalorizam os regimes como sendo, na melhor das hipóteses, ineficazes; as orientações grocianas vêem os regimes como componentes íntimos do sistema internacional; as perspectivas estruturalistas modificadas vêem os regimes como significativos somente em certas condições restritas. Para os argumentos grociano e estruturalista modificado - que concordam com a visão de que os regimes podem influenciar resultados e comportamentos - , o desenvolvimento de regimes é visto como uma função de cinco variáveis causais básicas: auto-interesse egoísta; poder político; normas e princípios difusos; usos e costumes; conhecimento.

  19. Control electron beam oscillation regimes in Pierce diode with overcritical current

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rempen, I.S.; Khramov, A.E.

    2001-01-01

    The effect of the delayed feedback on the complex oscillation regimes in the electron flux with the overcritical current in the Pierce diode is studied. The possibility of controlling the oscillation regimes through changing the feedback parameters is shown. The finite-dimensional model, describing the behavior of the electron flux in the Pierce diode hydrodynamic model, is constructed. Its behavior under the effect of the delayed feedback is studied [ru

  20. Crossing regimes of temperature dependence in animal movement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibert, Jean P; Chelini, Marie-Claire; Rosenthal, Malcolm F; DeLong, John P

    2016-05-01

    A pressing challenge in ecology is to understand the effects of changing global temperatures on food web structure and dynamics. The stability of these complex ecological networks largely depends on how predator-prey interactions may respond to temperature changes. Because predators and prey rely on their velocities to catch food or avoid being eaten, understanding how temperatures may affect animal movement is central to this quest. Despite our efforts, we still lack a mechanistic understanding of how the effect of temperature on metabolic processes scales up to animal movement and beyond. Here, we merge a biomechanical approach, the Metabolic Theory of Ecology and empirical data to show that animal movement displays multiple regimes of temperature dependence. We also show that crossing these regimes has important consequences for population dynamics and stability, which depend on the parameters controlling predator-prey interactions. We argue that this dependence upon interaction parameters may help explain why experimental work on the temperature dependence of interaction strengths has so far yielded conflicting results. More importantly, these changes in the temperature dependence of animal movement can have consequences that go well beyond ecological interactions and affect, for example, animal communication, mating, sensory detection, and any behavioral modality dependent on the movement of limbs. Finally, by not taking into account the changes in temperature dependence reported here we might not be able to properly forecast the impact of global warming on ecological processes and propose appropriate mitigation action when needed. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Coulomb drag in the mesoscopic regime

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, N. Asger; Flensberg, Karsten; Jauho, Antti-Pekka

    2002-01-01

    We present a theory for Coulomb drug between two mesoscopic systems which expresses the drag in terms of scattering matrices and wave functions. The formalism can be applied to both ballistic and disordered systems and the consequences can be studied either by numerical simulations or analytic...... means such as perturbation theory or random matrix theory. The physics of Coulomb drag in the mesoscopic regime is very different from Coulomb drag between extended electron systems. In the mesoscopic regime we in general find fluctuations of the drag comparable to the mean value. Examples are vanishing...

  2. Coulomb drag in the mesoscopic regime

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, N.A.; Flensberg, Karsten; Jauho, Antti-Pekka

    2002-01-01

    We present a theory for Coulomb drag between two mesoscopic systems which expresses the drag in terms of scattering matrices and wave functions. The formalism can be applied to both ballistic and disordered systems and the consequences can be studied either by numerical simulations or analytic...... means such as perturbation theory or random matrix theory. The physics of Coulomb drag in the mesoscopic regime is very different from Coulomb drag between extended electron systems. In the mesoscopic regime we in general find fluctuations of the drag comparable to the mean value. Examples are vanishing...

  3. WELFARE REGIMES IN LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melisa Campana-Alabarce

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article provides a characterization of Latin American and Caribbean Welfare regimes in historiographical perspective. Firstly, it makes a review of the emergence conditions of Welfare States in Western Europe and its core features, with particular emphasis on its role as a method to regulate inequalities in industrial capitalism. Dialoguing with it, then stops in the specific configurations that welfare regimes have taken in Latin America during the course of the twentieth century. Finally, it provides a map of its contemporary features and the major challenges that the States of the region face in his capacity as right guarantors for the future.

  4. The oil tax regime of Azerbaijan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Gerard

    1998-07-01

    Azerbaijan has a long history in the oil business and a chance of a spectacular future. To understand why the oil tax regime evolved into its present form and how it is likely to develop, it is necessary to know something of the country's history and the commercial environment. Consequently the presentation begins by discussing these items. It then outlines the Production Sharing Agreement regime in Azerbaijan and then deals with the Kazakh and Georgian Tax Codes, as these are likely to be the basis of a new general tax law in Azerbaijan from 1999. The presentation includes comments on the New Draft Tax Code of 1998.

  5. The oil tax regime of Azerbaijan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Gerard

    1998-07-01

    Azerbaijan has a long history in the oil business and a chance of a spectacular future. To understand why the oil tax regime evolved into its present form and how it is likely to develop, it is necessary to know something of the country's history and the commercial environment. Consequently the presentation begins by discussing these items. It then outlines the Production Sharing Agreement regime in Azerbaijan and then deals with the Kazakh and Georgian Tax Codes, as these are likely to be the basis of a new general tax law in Azerbaijan from 1999. The presentation includes comments on the New Draft Tax Code of 1998.

  6. Regimes of flow past a vortex generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Velte, Clara Marika; Okulov, V.L.; Naumov, I.V.

    2012-01-01

    A complete parametric investigation of the development of multi-vortex regimes in a wake past simple vortex generator has been carried out. It is established that the vortex structure in the wake is much more complicated than a simple monopole tip vortex. The vortices were studied by stereoscopic...... particle image velocimetry (SPIV). Based on the obtained SPIV data, a map of the regimes of flow past the vortex generator has been constructed. One region with a developed stable multivortex system on this map reaches the vicinity of the optimum angle of attack of the vortex generator....

  7. Flocking regimes in a simple lattice model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, J R; Evans, M R

    2006-03-01

    We study a one-dimensional lattice flocking model incorporating all three of the flocking criteria proposed by Reynolds [Computer Graphics 21, 4 (1987)]: alignment, centering, and separation. The model generalizes that introduced by O. J. O'Loan and M. R. Evans [J. Phys. A. 32, L99 (1999)]. We motivate the dynamical rules by microscopic sampling considerations. The model exhibits various flocking regimes: the alternating flock, the homogeneous flock, and dipole structures. We investigate these regimes numerically and within a continuum mean-field theory.

  8. Legal Regimes of Official Information in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serhii Yesimov

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In the article on the basis of the methodology of system analysis the legal nature and sources of legal regulation of the legal regime of official information in Ukraine in the conditions of adaptation of Ukrainian legislation to the legislation of the European Union are considered. A comparative legal analysis of official information in the public-law and private-law spheres in the context of legal regimes of restricted information, confidential information and information classified as state secrets has been conducted.

  9. Fire regimes of quaking aspen in the Mountain West

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinneman, Douglas J.; Baker, William L.; Rogers, Paul C.; Kulakowski, Dominik

    2013-01-01

    Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) is the most widespread tree species in North America, and it is found throughout much of the Mountain West (MW) across a broad range of bioclimatic regions. Aspen typically regenerates asexually and prolifically after fire, and due to its seral status in many western conifer forests, aspen is often considered dependent upon disturbance for persistence. In many landscapes, historical evidence for post-fire aspen establishment is clear, and following extended fire-free periods senescing or declining aspen overstories sometimes lack adequate regeneration and are succeeding to conifers. However, aspen also forms relatively stable stands that contain little or no evidence of historical fire. In fact, aspen woodlands range from highly fire-dependent, seral communities to relatively stable, self-replacing, non-seral communities that do not require fire for persistence. Given the broad geographic distribution of aspen, fire regimes in these forests likely co-vary spatially with changing community composition, landscape setting, and climate, and temporally with land use and climate – but relatively few studies have explicitly focused on these important spatiotemporal variations. Here we reviewed the literature to summarize aspen fire regimes in the western US and highlight knowledge gaps. We found that only about one-fourth of the 46 research papers assessed for this review could be considered fire history studies (in which mean fire intervals were calculated), and all but one of these were based primarily on data from fire-scarred conifers. Nearly half of the studies reported at least some evidence of persistent aspen in the absence of fire. We also found that large portions of the MW have had little or no aspen fire history research. As a result of this review, we put forth a classification framework for aspen that is defined by key fire regime parameters (fire severity and probability), and that reflects underlying biophysical

  10. Statistics of exchange rate regimes in Nigeria | Iwueze | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The three distinct exchange rate regimes of Nigeria were subjected to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling in order to compare them with respect to model structure. It was found that the three regimes admit different models. Regime one admits Moving average model of order 2, Regime two admits ...

  11. Technological regimes and sources of entrepreneurship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marsili, O.

    2002-01-01

    This paper concerns the technological determinants of entrepreneurial behaviour. By applying a typology of technological regimes, which describes the nature of the technological environment in which firms operate, this paper examines the sources and obstacles to entrepreneurial entry related to the

  12. Searching for an Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunjong Wang

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to survey current debates on the choice of exchange rate regime in emerging market economies. The issue of choosing an appropriate exchange rate regime is being actively discussed since the recent Asian crisis. As a lesson from the recent crises, one widely shared conclusion is that soft peg exchange rate regimes are extremely vulnerable in a world of volatile capital movements. Consequently, new orthodoxy based on the impossible trinity hypothesis favours two corner solutions ― greater flexibility or credible institutional assurance, like a currency board system or dollarization. Nevertheless, questions whether such corner solutions are adequate for developing countries are rising of late. "Fear of floating" is still conspicuous in many developing countries having adopted nominally a free-floating exchange rate regime. Developing countries are sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations because the cost of exchange rate volatility is greater than the benefit when compared to developed countries. Monitoring bands is a compromise solution, but it still needs further enhancement of estimation techniques for fundamental equilibrium exchange rates in order to make those estimation results more workable in practice. Other alternatives include the creation of soft peg of the G-3 currencies. Despite counterarguments, the stability of G-3 currencies could prove to be beneficial to emerging market economies.

  13. Negotiating a regime to control global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sebenius, J.K.

    1991-01-01

    For purposes of analysis, this paper has uncritically maintained that the prospect of a serious climate problem exists and has only lightly examined the broader advantages and drawbacks of various proposed policy and institutional responses. Crucial as they are to a full treatment of the issues, these underlying substantive and policy questions enter the analysis primarily insofar as they affect the likely outcomes of pending and potential negotiations. To an advocate of a new greenhouse control regime, the fundamental negotiating task is to craft and sustain a meaningful winning coalition of countries backing such a regime. Two centrally necessary conditions for the fundamental task are: (1) that each member of the coalition see enough gain in the regime relative to the alternatives to adhere and (2) the potential and actual blocking coalitions of interests opposed to the regime be prevented from forming and from being acceptably accommodated or otherwise neutralized. The analysis of this paper is organized around key questions whose answers will influence whether and how these two necessary conditions might (or might not) be met

  14. Yukon's common oil and gas regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Love, B.

    1998-01-01

    The Yukon's common oil and gas regime was developed in partnership with First Nations and it sets out the rules that will apply throughout the Yukon and on Yukon and First Nation lands. While separate and distinct, it conforms with and is compatible with other government systems and regimes. The major elements of the common regime include the Oil and Gas Act, regulations, policies, processes and agreements. The specific opportunities that are available in each phase of oil and gas development in the Yukon are described, with a map showing all basins, reserves and sites of current oil and gas activity. The Yukon has eight potential oil and gas basins: North Coast, Old Crow, Kandik, Eagle Plain, Peel Plateau, Bonnet Plume, Whitehorse Trough, and Liard Plateau. Only three of the eight, the Liard Plateau, Whitehorse Trough and Eagle Plain, have been explored. No wells have been drilled in several of Yukon's basins. Factors influencing economic opportunities in the Territory are also described, including: (1) international events and energy markets, (2) North American gas markets, (3) environmental factors, (4) competitiveness of the Yukon regime, and (5) the commitment of industry resources. 4 figs

  15. Technological regimes and sources of entrepreneurship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marsili, O.

    2000-01-01

    This paper concerns the technological detenninants of entrepreneurial behaviour. By applying a typology of technological regimes, which describes the nature of the technological environment in which finns operate, this paper examines the sources and obstacle to entrepreneurial entry related to the

  16. Comprehensive review of the maritime safety regimes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Knapp (Sabine); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractThis report presents a comprehensive review of the maritime safety regimes and provides recommendations on how to improve the system. The results show a complex legal framework which generates a high amount of inspections and overlapping of inspection areas where no cross-recognition is

  17. Plugging regime in the pump limiter throat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghendrih, P.; Grosman, A.; Samain, A.; Capes, H.; Morera, J.P.

    1988-08-01

    The plugging regime -with no outstreaming neutral flux- is studied for a closed configuration pump limiter (throat). We derive the plugging length and the neutral density build-up at the neutralizer plate. The analytical expressions are supported by numerical evidence. We find an improved efficiency related to the throat effect mainly due to neutral-sidewall interactions

  18. Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Groeger, Joachim P.

    2012-01-01

    methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face...

  19. Radiative effects of global MODIS cloud regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Cho, Nayeong; Lee, Dongmin; Kato, Seiji

    2018-01-01

    We update previously published MODIS global cloud regimes (CRs) using the latest MODIS cloud retrievals in the Collection 6 dataset. We implement a slightly different derivation method, investigate the composition of the regimes, and then proceed to examine several aspects of CR radiative appearance with the aid of various radiative flux datasets. Our results clearly show the CRs are radiatively distinct in terms of shortwave, longwave and their combined (total) cloud radiative effect. We show that we can clearly distinguish regimes based on whether they radiatively cool or warm the atmosphere, and thanks to radiative heating profiles to discern the vertical distribution of cooling and warming. Terra and Aqua comparisons provide information about the degree to which morning and afternoon occurrences of regimes affect the symmetry of CR radiative contribution. We examine how the radiative discrepancies among multiple irradiance datasets suffering from imperfect spatiotemporal matching depend on CR, and whether they are therefore related to the complexity of cloud structure, its interpretation by different observational systems, and its subsequent representation in radiative transfer calculations. PMID:29619289

  20. Radiative Effects of Global MODIS Cloud Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oraiopoulos, Lazaros; Cho, Nayeong; Lee, Dong Min; Kato, Seiji

    2016-01-01

    We update previously published MODIS global cloud regimes (CRs) using the latest MODIS cloud retrievals in the Collection 6 dataset. We implement a slightly different derivation method, investigate the composition of the regimes, and then proceed to examine several aspects of CR radiative appearance with the aid of various radiative flux datasets. Our results clearly show the CRs are radiatively distinct in terms of shortwave, longwave and their combined (total) cloud radiative effect. We show that we can clearly distinguish regimes based on whether they radiatively cool or warm the atmosphere, and thanks to radiative heating profiles to discern the vertical distribution of cooling and warming. Terra and Aqua comparisons provide information about the degree to which morning and afternoon occurrences of regimes affect the symmetry of CR radiative contribution. We examine how the radiative discrepancies among multiple irradiance datasets suffering from imperfect spatiotemporal matching depend on CR, and whether they are therefore related to the complexity of cloud structure, its interpretation by different observational systems, and its subsequent representation in radiative transfer calculations.

  1. The Forex Regime and EMU Expansion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.W. van Foreest; C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides empirical evidence that, irrespective of the foreign exchange rate regime, countries with high monetary volatility have lower relative output growth rates. It is argued that due to the forward looking nature of the foreign exchange market, exchange rate stability

  2. Trust in regulatory regimes: scoping the field

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Six, F.E.; Verhoest, Koen

    2017-01-01

    This edited volume is the first endeavour to systematically investigate the role of trust in the different relations within regulatory regimes. Trust as a multifaceted concept is contested within public administration and political science in general and especially within the relation between

  3. Optimal dividend distribution under Markov regime switching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, Z.; Pistorius, M.

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the problem of optimal dividend distribution for a company in the presence of regime shifts. We consider a company whose cumulative net revenues evolve as a Brownian motion with positive drift that is modulated by a finite state Markov chain, and model the discount rate as a

  4. A Comparative Typology of Pension Regimes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arjan Soede; Cok Vrooman

    2008-01-01

    This report presents an empirical typology of pension regimes in the European Union, the US, Canada, Australia and Norway. The categorisation is based on 34 quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the mandatory parts of the pension systems in these countries. The empirical analysis shows

  5. Regime Shifts and Resilience in Fisheries Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Chuan Zhong; Villasante, Sebastian; Zhu, Xueqin

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the role of potential regime shifts in Argentinean hake fishery and the inter-linkage between ecological and economic resilience. We develop a theoretical model incorporated with the hazard function for resource management under alternative conditions, and derive the corrective

  6. An emissions trading regime for Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.L.

    2001-01-01

    In 1998, over twelve papers were published on emissions trading regimes in Canada by the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE), a federal government agency whose members represent stakeholders as varied as business, environmental groups, academics, aboriginal groups and others. One of the recommendations that emerged was for the computer modelling of the possibilities that had been identified for a domestic trading regime in Canada for greenhouse gases. It is unclear whether the modelling was ever performed as the file was taken over by the Finance Department under the umbrella of a special emission trading table that examined Canada's commitment under the Kyoto Protocol. The author examined questions pertaining to whether a domestic trading regime is essential, and what its characteristics should be in case it was deemed essential or advisable to have one. The upstream versus downstream application was looked at, as well as grand-fathering versus auction. Provincial issues were then addressed, followed by meshing with a credit system. International systems were reviewed. Early action was discussed, whereby an emitter seeks credit for action taken toward reductions since the original reference year of 1990. The case of emitters having bought or sold permits since the original reference years will also want those trades recognized under a trading regime. The author indicated that it seems probable that an emission trading system will eventually be implemented and that a debate on the issue should be initiated early

  7. EUROPEAN INFLUENCE ON ETHIOPIAN ANTITRUST REGIME:

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eliasn

    Introduction. Despite a noticeable European influence on the Ethiopian competition legal regime, some aspects of Ethiopia's 2003 Trade Practice Proclamation are still inadequate to appropriately deal with certain competition problems. The limitations of the rules need to be put right since achievement of the very goals of ...

  8. [The "specific" liability regime for blood products].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byk, Christian

    2017-10-13

    Based on the system of liability for defective products as organized by the European Directive of 25 July 1985, responsibility for blood products does not therefore constitute a genuine specific regime. However, European law leaves States a margin of discretion in the implementation of the Directive with regard to health products. This is the case in particular with the exemption for development risk.

  9. Relocation and the characteristics of hospital and hostel regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, T; Simons, K; Booth, W

    1991-01-01

    Drawing on evidence from a research evaluation of a local community care programme, this paper explores whether relocation from a British National Health Service mental handicap hospital into local authority hostels (supervised residential facilities) brought about a qualitative change in the residential environment of movers towards less restrictive management practices and caring routines, more responsive attitudes towards their rights and needs as individuals, and greater control over their own lives. The conclusions point to the existence of a substantial measure of overlap in the fundamental characteristics of the hospital and hostel regimes.

  10. States agree on stronger physical protection regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    Full text: Delegates from 89 countries agreed on 8 July to fundamental changes that will substantially strengthen the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM). IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei welcomed the agreement in saying 'This new and stronger treaty is an important step towards greater nuclear security by combating, preventing, and ultimately punishing those who would engage in nuclear theft, sabotage or even terrorism. It demonstrates that there is indeed a global commitment to remedy weaknesses in our nuclear security regime.' The amended CPPNM makes it legally binding for States Parties to protect nuclear facilities and material in peaceful domestic use, storage as well as transport. It will also provide for expanded cooperation between and among States regarding rapid measures to locate and recover stolen or smuggled nuclear material, mitigate any radiological consequences of sabotage, and prevent and combat related offences. The original CPPNM applied only to nuclear material in international transport. Conference President Dr. Alec Baer said 'All 89 delegations demonstrated real unity of purpose. They put aside some very genuine national concerns in favour of the global interest and the result is a much improved convention that is better suited to addressing the nuclear security challenges we currently face.' The new rules will come into effect once they have been ratified by two-thirds of the 112 States Parties of the Convention, expected to take several years. 'But concrete actions are already taking place around the world. For more than 3 years, the IAEA has been implementing a systematic Nuclear Security plan, including physical protection activities designed to prevent, detect and respond to malicious acts,' said Anita Nillson, Director of the IAEA's Office of Nuclear Security. The Agency's Nuclear Security Fund, set up after the events of 9/11, has delivered $19.5 million in practical assistance to 121 countries

  11. Hydroperiod regime controls the organization of plant species in wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foti, Romano; del Jesus, Manuel; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

    2012-11-27

    With urban, agricultural, and industrial needs growing throughout the past decades, wetland ecosystems have experienced profound changes. Most critically, the biodiversity of wetlands is intimately linked to its hydrologic dynamics, which in turn are being drastically altered by ongoing climate changes. Hydroperiod regimes, e.g., percentage of time a site is inundated, exert critical control in the creation of niches for different plant species in wetlands. However, the spatial signatures of the organization of plant species in wetlands and how the different drivers interact to yield such signatures are unknown. Focusing on Everglades National Park (ENP) in Florida, we show here that cluster sizes of each species follow a power law probability distribution and that such clusters have well-defined fractal characteristics. Moreover, we individuate and model those signatures via the interplay between global forcings arising from the hydroperiod regime and local controls exerted by neighboring vegetation. With power law clustering often associated with systems near critical transitions, our findings are highly relevant for the management of wetland ecosystems. In addition, our results show that changes in climate and land management have a quantifiable predictable impact on the type of vegetation and its spatial organization in wetlands.

  12. Modeling Snow Regime in Cores of Small Planetary Bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boukaré, C. E.; Ricard, Y. R.; Parmentier, E.; Parman, S. W.

    2017-12-01

    Observations of present day magnetic field on small planetary bodies such as Ganymede or Mercury challenge our understanding of planetary dynamo. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the origin of magnetic fields. Among the proposed scenarios, one family of models relies on snow regime. Snow regime is supported by experimental studies showing that melting curves can first intersect adiabats in regions where the solidifying phase is not gravitationaly stable. First solids should thus remelt during their ascent or descent. The effect of the snow zone on magnetic field generation remains an open question. Could magnetic field be generated in the snow zone? If not, what is the depth extent of the snow zone? How remelting in the snow zone drive compositional convection in the liquid layer? Several authors have tackled this question with 1D-spherical models. Zhang and Schubert, 2012 model sinking of the dense phase as internally heated convection. However, to our knowledge, there is no study on the convection structure associated with sedimentation and phase change at planetary scale. We extend the numerical model developped in [Boukare et al., 2017] to model snow dynamics in 2D Cartesian geometry. We build a general approach for modeling double diffusive convection coupled with solid-liquid phase change and phase separation. We identify several aspects that may govern the convection structure of the solidifying system: viscosity contrast between the snow zone and the liquid layer, crystal size, rate of melting/solidification and partitioning of light components during phase change.

  13. The global safety regime - Setting the stage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meserve, R.A.

    2005-01-01

    The existing global safety regime has arisen from the exercise of sovereign authority, with an overlay of voluntary international cooperation from a network of international and regional organizations and intergovernmental agreements. This system has, in the main, served us well. For several reasons, the time is ripe to consider the desired shape of a future global safety regime and to take steps to achieve it. First, every nation's reliance on nuclear power is hostage to some extent to safety performance elsewhere in the world because of the effects on public attitudes and hence there is an interest in ensuring achievement of common standards. Second, the world is increasingly interdependent and the vendors of nuclear power plants seek to market their products throughout the globe. Efficiency would arise from the avoidance of needless differences in approach that require custom modifications from country to country. Finally, we have much to learn from each other and a common effort would strengthen us all. Such an effort might also serve to enhance public confidence. Some possible characteristics of such a regime can be identified. The regime should reflect a global consensus on the level of safety that should be achieved. There should be sufficient standardization of approach so that expertise and equipment can be used everywhere without significant modification. There should be efforts to ensure a fundamental commitment to safety and the encouragement of a safety culture. And there should be efforts to adopt more widely the best regulatory practices, recognizing that some modifications in approach may be necessary to reflect each nation's legal and social culture. At the same type, the regime should have the characteristics of flexibility, transparency, stability, practicality, and encouragement of competence. (author)

  14. Choice of exchange rate regimes for African countries: Fixed or Flexible Exchange rate regimes?

    OpenAIRE

    Simwaka, Kisu

    2010-01-01

    The choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime has been a subject of ongoing debate in international economics. The majority of African countries are small open economies and thus where the choice of the exchange rate regime is an important policy issue. Aside from factors such as interest rates and inflation, the exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of a country’s relative level of economic health. For this reason, exchange rates are among the most watched analyzed and ...

  15. Steady and transient regimes in hydropower plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajic, A.

    2013-12-01

    Hydropower plant that has been in operation for about 30 years has to be reconstructed. They have already installed 12 Kaplan turbines, the largest in the world at that time. The existing CAM relationship was determined based on hydraulic model tests and checked by efficiency on-site tests. It was also tested based on turbine bearing vibrations. In order to discover vibrations and long cracks on stay vanes detailed on-site measurements were performed. Influence of the modification of the trailing edges on the dynamic stresses of the stay vanes is also shown. In order to improve power output transient regimes were analyzed, both experimentally and numerically. Reversible hydropower plant, a pioneer in Europe since it was the first Pump storage power plant constructed with the highest head pump-turbines in the world. Analyses of transient regimes discover some problems with S-shaped characteristics coupled with non-symmetrical penstock.

  16. Steady and transient regimes in hydropower plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gajic, A

    2013-01-01

    Hydropower plant that has been in operation for about 30 years has to be reconstructed. They have already installed 12 Kaplan turbines, the largest in the world at that time. The existing CAM relationship was determined based on hydraulic model tests and checked by efficiency on-site tests. It was also tested based on turbine bearing vibrations. In order to discover vibrations and long cracks on stay vanes detailed on-site measurements were performed. Influence of the modification of the trailing edges on the dynamic stresses of the stay vanes is also shown. In order to improve power output transient regimes were analyzed, both experimentally and numerically. Reversible hydropower plant, a pioneer in Europe since it was the first Pump storage power plant constructed with the highest head pump-turbines in the world. Analyses of transient regimes discover some problems with S-shaped characteristics coupled with non-symmetrical penstock

  17. Recent Activities on Global Nuclear Safety Regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Kun-Woo; Park, Jeong-Seop; Kim, Do-Hyoung

    2006-01-01

    Recently, rapid progress on the globalization of the nuclear safety issues is being made in IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and its member states. With the globalization, the need for international cooperation among international bodies and member states continues to grow for resolving these universal nuclear safety issues. Furthermore, the importance of strengthening the global nuclear safety regime is emphasized through various means, such as efforts in application of IAEA safety standards to all nuclear installations in the world and in strengthening the code of conduct and the convention on nuclear safety. In this regards, it is important for us to keep up with the activities related with the global nuclear safety regime as an IAEA member state and a leading country in nuclear safety regulation

  18. Regimes de espaço

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Landowski

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Space Regimes - Based on a general model of interaction, the present analysis attempts to account for the diversity of the ways space may be apprehended in lived experience. It leads to the definition of four configurations that correspond to as many regimes of relation with the environing world. The conventional space of the circulation of values takes the archetypical shape of the net (incarnated today by Internet. The operational space is that of our dealing with objects within a material environment seen as a tissue of stable and intelligible relations. The experienced space of bodies’ movement, to which one may give as an emblem the spiral, expresses the dynamics of sensitive relationships between the self and the other. The existential space is that of our presence in a universe without boundaries, which no one can properly represent oneself but that nonetheless haunts art and thought: its figure is the abyss.

  19. Supersonic free jet, molecular free regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanna, G.; Tomassetti, G.

    1999-01-01

    The structure of the free jet emitted by a converging nozzle as obtained by the method of characteristics by Ashkenas and Sherman is described in details. In particular the dependence of the field variable by the distance from the nozzle is given. The transition from continuum to molecular free regime is then considered and the sudden freeze approximation is introduced. The processing of monoatomic and polyatomic gasses is also considered [it

  20. Dynamic Regime of Ignition of Solid Propellant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zolotorev Nikolay

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a dynamic regime of exposure of the radiant flux on the sample of gun-cotton. Obtained time the ignition of gun-cotton in the heating conditions of increasing heat flux in the range from 0.2 W/cm2 to 22 W/cm2. A comparison of the delay times of the ignition when heated variable and constant heat flux.

  1. Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability

    OpenAIRE

    Francesco Caselli; Andrea Tesei

    2011-01-01

    We study theoretically and empirically whether natural resource windfalls affect political regimes. We document the following regularities. Natural resource windfalls have no effect on the political system when they occur in democracies. However, windfalls have significant political consequences in autocracies. In particular, when an autocratic country receives a positive shock to its flow of resource rents it responds by becoming even more autocratic. Furthermore, there is heterogeneity in t...

  2. Proliferation Control Regimes: Background and Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-25

    States has signed such agreements with Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Belize, Croatia, Cyprus, Liberia, Malta, the Marshall Islands , Mongolia...Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC), and the Australia Group. The informal Australia Group...biological agents or toxins “of types and in quantities that have no justification for peaceful purposes.” The missile nonproliferation regime is founded not

  3. A regime legitimacy explanation of African peacekeeping

    OpenAIRE

    Ross, Matthew.

    2011-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. The American military needs to understand what incentivizes some African nations to participate in peacekeeping in order to strengthen the incentive structure so that high levels of peacekeeping will continue. The main argument advanced in this thesis is that regimes that are attempting to increase their structural legitimacy are more likely to volunteer for peacekeeping missions to gain international political legitimacy, as well as ...

  4. Symmetric vs. asymmetric punishment regimes for bribery

    OpenAIRE

    Engel, Christoph; Goerg, Sebastian J.; Yu, Gaoneng

    2012-01-01

    In major legal orders such as UK, the U.S., Germany, and France, bribers and recipients face equally severe criminal sanctions. In contrast, countries like China, Russia, and Japan treat the briber more mildly. Given these differences between symmetric and asymmetric punishment regimes for bribery, one may wonder which punishment strategy is more effective in curbing corruption. For this purpose, we designed and ran a lab experiment in Bonn (Germany) and Shanghai (China) with exactly the same...

  5. ACCESSORIES OF FISCAL OBLIGATION. LEGAL REGIME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RADA POSTOLACHE

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The interest – which is an institution typical to private law, has been taken over by the fiscal field and adapted to the specific features of fiscal obligation – being defined by its imperative legal regime, which has at the least the following characteristic elements: unitary character, imposed legal percentage, compulsory demand of interest, automatic application. In order to render responsible fiscal debtors, the lawmaker has reintroduced, as an accessory of fiscal obligation, delayed payment penalties, which have a distinct nature and legal regime, but without the principle non bis in idem being transgressed. Our study aims to establish the legal regime ofaccessories typical to fiscal obligation, from the perspective of special normative acts, but also of the common law within the field – Civil Code and Government Ordinance No. 13/2011 – by pointing out at the same time both the particular circumstances and procedural ones regulated by the Fiscal Procedure Code, shedding light upon the controversial legal nature of accessories.

  6. "International regime for advancing lunar development"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beldavs, VZ

    2017-09-01

    A specific concern regarding the Moon Treaty is the provision for sharing the wealth gained from space with developing countries that have not invested and taken risks in making possible space materials utilization. Article 11, par. 7 states "The main purposes of the international regime to be established shall include: (a) The orderly and safe development of the natural resources of the moon; (b) The rational management of those resources; (c) The expansion of opportunities in the use of those resources; (d) An equitable sharing by all States Parties in the benefits derived from those resources, whereby the interests and needs of the developing countries, as well as the efforts of those countries which have contributed either directly or indirectly to the exploration of the moon, shall be given special consideration." Whether the Moon Treaty in its present form or modified to be acceptable to more parties or the Moon Treaty is ignored, the language of Article 11, paragraph 7 can be used to construct an international regime for lunar development that can meet the requirements of commercial business as well as of states that provide support for lunar development as well as developing countries that may have played a modest role in making lunar development possible. This paper will consider options for constructing an international regime for lunar development.

  7. QCD in the {delta}-regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bietenholz, W. [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City (Mexico). Inst. de Ciencias Nucleares; Cundy, N. [Seoul National Univ. (Korea, Republic of). Lattice Gauge Theory Research Center; Goeckeler, M. [Regensburg Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Horsley, R.; Zanotti, J.M. [Edinburgh Univ. (United Kingdom). School of Physics; Nakamura, Y. [Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki (Japan). Center for Computational Sciences; Pleiter, D. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany); Rakow, P.E.L. [Liverpool Univ. (United Kingdom). Theoretical Physics Div.; Schierholz, G. [Regensburg Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

    2011-03-15

    The {delta}-regime of QCD is characterised by light quarks in a small spatial box, but a large extent in (Euclidean) time. In this setting a specific variant of chiral perturbation theory - the {delta}-expansion - applies, based on a quantum mechanical treatment of the quasi onedimensional system. In particular, for vanishing quark masses one obtains a residual pion mass M{sup R}{sub {pi}}, which has been computed to the third order in the {delta}-expansion. A comparison with numerical measurements of this residual mass allows for a new determination of some Low Energy Constants, which appear in the chiral Lagrangian. We first review the attempts to simulate 2-flavour QCD directly in the {delta}-regime. This is very tedious, but results compatible with the predictions for M{sup R}{sub {pi}} have been obtained. Then we show that an extrapolation of pion masses measured in a larger volume towards the {delta}-regime leads to good agreement with the theoretical predictions. From those results, we also extract a value for the (controversial) sub-leading Low Energy Constant anti l{sub 3}. (orig.)

  8. QCD in the δ-regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bietenholz, W.; Rakow, P.E.L.

    2011-03-01

    The δ-regime of QCD is characterised by light quarks in a small spatial box, but a large extent in (Euclidean) time. In this setting a specific variant of chiral perturbation theory - the δ-expansion - applies, based on a quantum mechanical treatment of the quasi onedimensional system. In particular, for vanishing quark masses one obtains a residual pion mass M R π , which has been computed to the third order in the δ-expansion. A comparison with numerical measurements of this residual mass allows for a new determination of some Low Energy Constants, which appear in the chiral Lagrangian. We first review the attempts to simulate 2-flavour QCD directly in the δ-regime. This is very tedious, but results compatible with the predictions for M R π have been obtained. Then we show that an extrapolation of pion masses measured in a larger volume towards the δ-regime leads to good agreement with the theoretical predictions. From those results, we also extract a value for the (controversial) sub-leading Low Energy Constant anti l 3 . (orig.)

  9. British Columbia's new coalbed methane royalty regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molinski, D.

    2002-01-01

    The British Columbia Ministry of Energy and Mines is promoting the development of the coalbed methane (CBM) industry in the province in order to make CBM a viable and competitive investment option for industry. It is establishing a regulatory and fiscal regime for CBM development. Issues of concern regarding CBM development include water production, gas production rates, well numbers, and marginal economics. The features of the CBM royalty regime include a new producer cost of service allowance, the creation of a CBM royalty tax bank to collect excess PCOS allowances, and a royalty tax credit for wells drilled by the end of February, 2004. The marginal well adjustment factor threshold has been raised from 180 mcf per day to 600 mcf per day for CBM only. It was noted that royalties will probably not be payable for several years following the first commercial well because royalties are very depending on capital and operating costs, local infrastructure and price. Royalty regimes cannot save CBM from low gas prices, poor resources or economics. 2 figs

  10. Private actor accountability on international regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahyudi Purnomo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs have emerged along with the growing role of corporations in global development. One of the largest forms of PPP today is the UN Global Compact. The UN Global Compact involves of companies, NGOs, IGOs and state governments. All of them are trying to realize globalization with a more humanist face with attention to the protection of human rights, environment, labor standards and anti-corruption. Engaging private actors in global governance, The UN Global Compact raises many issues such as power, authority, and legitimacy. The effort to tackle it all is to increase PPP accountability. This research seeks to describe what efforts can be made to enhance private accountability within the international regime. The research undertaken is a descriptive study, focuses on public-private partnerships in the UN Global Compact regime. The study found that there were two attempts that could be done. First, by involving the stakeholders in the development of procedures, mechanisms, reporting and monitoring associated with trying to improve the company’s reputation. Second, by looking at corporate relations as agent and UN Global Compact as principal in principal-agent relation in the international regime.

  11. Hydroelectric power development and the ice regime of inland waters: A northern community perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerard, R.

    1989-03-01

    Inland waters play a vital role in the life of the many small northern communities which depend in large measure on the provisions of the natural environment for their sustenance. These communities are therefore particularly vulnerable to changes in the ice regime of these waters, especially changes that are irregular. However, the north is also the site of much of Canada's hydroelectric power development and potential, developments that have a major influence on the ice regime of effected waters. As a contribution to the background information required for the necessary discussions and negotiations associated with such developments, the various aspects of the natural ice regime, the possible effects of hydroelectric development and operation on this regime, and its consequences, are briefly reviewed. The emphasis has been placed on changes that will likely be of most significance to northern communities in the bedrock-controlled country of the western Canadian Shield. The major direct, and in some circumstances life-threatening, impact of changes to the ice regime is on trafficability of the iceways that play such a vital role in the life of the communities. Hence particular emphasis has been placed on this aspect and on the formation of the slush and thin ice conditions that are the bane of over-ice travel and that are subject to unexpected changes by hydroelectric development and operation. To place these changes and their effects in some perspective, the nature of a hydroelectric development is also briefly described and an effort made to indicate the large costs incurred if these developments are restrained in their operation to avoid or mitigate some of the effects on the ice regime. 31 refs., 57 figs., 1 tab

  12. JT-60U high performance regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishida, S.

    1999-01-01

    High performance regimes of JT-60U plasmas are presented with an emphasis upon the results from the use of a semi-closed pumped divertor with W-shaped geometry. Plasma performance in transient and quasi steady states has been significantly improved in reversed shear and high- βp regimes. The reversed shear regime elevated an equivalent Q DT eq transiently up to 1.25 (n D (0)τ E T i (0)=8.6x10 20 m-3·s·keV) in a reactor-relevant thermonuclear dominant regime. Long sustainment of enhanced confinement with internal transport barriers (ITBs) with a fully non-inductive current drive in a reversed shear discharge was successfully demonstrated with LH wave injection. Performance sustainment has been extended in the high- bp regime with a high triangularity achieving a long sustainment of plasma conditions equivalent to Q DT eq ∼0.16 (n D (0)τ E T i (0)∼1.4x10 20 m -3 ·s·keV) for ∼4.5 s with a large non-inductive current drive fraction of 60-70% of the plasma current. Thermal and particle transport analyses show significant reduction of thermal and particle diffusivities around ITB resulting in a strong Er shear in the ITB region. The W-shaped divertor is effective for He ash exhaust demonstrating steady exhaust capability of τ He */τ E ∼3-10 in support of ITER. Suppression of neutral back flow and chemical sputtering effect have been observed while MARFE onset density is rather decreased. Negative-ion based neutral beam injection (N-NBI) experiments have created a clear H-mode transition. Enhanced ionization cross- section due to multi-step ionization processes was confirmed as theoretically predicted. A current density profile driven by N-NBI is measured in a good agreement with theoretical prediction. N-NBI induced TAE modes characterized as persistent and bursting oscillations have been observed from a low hot beta of h >∼0.1-0.2% without a significant loss of fast ions. (author)

  13. Regime shifts in demersal assemblages of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem: a comparative assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkman, Stephen P.; Yemane, Dawit; Atkinson, Lara J.

    2015-01-01

    Using long‐term survey data, changes in demersal faunal communities in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem were analysed at community and population levels to provide a comparative overview of the occurrence and timing of regime shifts. For South Africa, the timing of a community‐level sh......Using long‐term survey data, changes in demersal faunal communities in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem were analysed at community and population levels to provide a comparative overview of the occurrence and timing of regime shifts. For South Africa, the timing of a community...

  14. Autonomia e relevância dos regimes The autonomy and relevance of regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Seignemartin de Carvalho

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Teorias institucionalistas na disciplina de relações internacionais usualmente definem regimes como um conjunto de normas e regras formais ou informais que permitem a convergência de expectativas ou a padronização do comportamento de seus participantes em uma determinada área de interesses com o objetivo de resolver problemas de coordenação que tenderiam a resultados não pareto-eficientes. Como estas definições baseadas meramente na "eficiência" dos regimes não parecem suficientes para explicar sua efetividade, o presente artigo propõe uma definição diferente para regimes: a de arranjos políticos que permitem a redistribuição dos ganhos da cooperação pelos participantes em uma determinada área de interesses em um contexto de interdependência. Regimes possuiriam efetividade pela sua autonomia e relevância, ou seja, por possuírem existência objetiva autônoma da de seus participantes e por influenciarem seu comportamento e expectativas de maneiras que não podem ser reduzidas à ação individual de nenhum deles. O artigo inicia-se com uma breve discussão sobre as dificuldades terminológicas associadas ao estudo de regimes e a definição dos conceitos de autonomia e relevância. Em seguida, classifica os diversos autores participantes do debate em duas perspectivas distintas, uma que nega (não-autonomistas e outra que atribui (autonomistas aos regimes autonomia e relevância, e faz uma breve análise dos autores e tradições mais significativos para o debate, aprofundando-se nos autonomistas e nos argumentos que reforçam a hipótese aqui apresentada. Ao final, o artigo propõe uma decomposição analítica dos regimes nos quatro elementos principais que lhes propiciam autonomia e relevância: normatividade, atores, especificidade da área de interesses e interdependência complexa com o contexto.Regimes are defined by institutionalist theories in the discipline of International Relations as formal or informal sets

  15. DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN NIGERIA: A MARKOV REGIME-SWITCHING APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akinlo A. Enisan

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Several studies have analyzed the movement of foreign direct investment in Nigeria using linear approach. In contrast with all existing studies in Nigeria, this paper runs several non linear FDI equations where the main determinants of FDI are determined using Markov- Regime Switching Model (MSMs. The approach enables us to observe structural changes, where exist, in FDI equations through time. Asides, where FDI regression equation is truly nonlinear, MSMs fit data better than the linear models. The paper adopts maximum likelihood methodology of Markov-Regime Model (MSM to identify possible structural changes in level and/or trends and possible changes in parameters of independent variables through the transition probabilities. The results show that FDI process in Nigeria is governed by two different regimes and a shift from one regime to another regime depends on transition probabilities. The results show that the main determinants of FDI are GDP growth, macro instability, financial development, exchange rate, inflation and discount rate. This implies liberalization that stems inflation and enhance the value of domestic currency will attract more FDI into the country.

  16. Climate diplomacy. The stakes of a climate international regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maljean-Dubois, Sandrine; Wemaere, Matthieu

    2010-01-01

    Written in 2010, just after the Copenhagen summit, by a specialist of international law on environment and an environment scientist, this book explores the avenues of the climate diplomacy (from Kyoto to Copenhagen) to meet the challenges of global climatic change, explains the implications of present and future negotiations, and discusses the prospects for an environmental international governance as the Rio+20 summit is approaching. The titles of the four chapters of this book are: the climate international regime, a step by step construction; guidelines and implementation of the Kyoto protocol; Post-2012 negotiations; European Union's strategy and policy against climatic change (quotas, emission trading, etc.). As a conclusion, the authors ask the question about the evolution of the climate international approach, pointing the kickback encountered at Copenhagen: now, what will come after?

  17. Monetary autonomy under different exchange rate regimes in the long-run: the case of seven new EU countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu HSING

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper finds that except for Poland, the other six countries possess moderate or significant monetary autonomy in the long run as their interest rates make partial or small adjustments to a change in the Euro area interest rate. Except for the Czech Republic and Poland, the findings support the hypothesis that countries under more flexible exchange rate regimes possess more monetary autonomy than countries under less flexible exchange rate regimes because local interest rates under more flexible exchange rate regimes are less sensitive to a change in the euro area interest rate.

  18. Development of objective flow regime identification method using self-organizing neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Nam Seok; Kwak, Nam Yee

    2004-01-01

    Two-phase flow shows various flow patterns according to the amount of the void and its relative velocity to the liquid flow. This variation directly affect the interfacial transfer which is the key factor for the design or analysis of the phase change systems. Especially the safety analysis of the nuclear power plant has been performed based on the numerical code furnished with the proper constitutive relations depending highly upon the flow regimes. Heavy efforts have been focused to identify the flow regime and at this moment we stand on relative very stable engineering background compare to the other research field. However, the issues related to objectiveness and transient flow regime are still open to study. Lee et al. and Ishii developed the method for the objective and instantaneous flow regime identification based on the neural network and new index of probability distribution of the flow regime which allows just one second observation for the flow regime identification. In the present paper, we developed the self-organized neural network for more objective approach to this problem. Kohonen's Self-Organizing Map (SOM) has been used for clustering, visualization, and abstraction. The SOM is trained through unsupervised competitive learning using a 'winner takes it all' policy. Therefore, its unsupervised training character delete the possible interference of the regime developer to the neural network training. After developing the computer code, we evaluate the performance of the code with the vertically upward two-phase flow in the pipes of 25.4 and 50.4 cmm I.D. Also, the sensitivity of the number of the clusters to the flow regime identification was made

  19. Linking meteorological drivers of spring-summer drought regimes to agricultural drought risk in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, L.; Wright, J. S.; Yu, C.; Huang, W. Y.

    2017-12-01

    As a drought prone country, China has experienced frequent severe droughts in recent decades. Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in China under climate change. An understanding of the physical processes that contribute to extreme droughts is essential for seasonal forecasting, but the dominant physical mechanisms responsible for droughts in most parts of China are still unclear. Moreover, despite numerous studies on droughts in China, there are few clear connections between the meteorological and climatological drivers of extreme droughts and the associated agricultural consequences. This knowledge gap limits the capacity for decision-making support in drought management. The objectives of this study are (1) to identify robust spring-summer drought regimes over China, (2) to investigate the physical mechanisms associated with each regime, and (3) to better clarify connections between meteorological drought regimes and agricultural drought risk. First, we identify six drought regimes over China by applying an area-weighted k-means clustering technique to spatial patterns of spring-summer Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) obtained from the ten-member ERA-20CM ensemble for 1900-2010. Second, we project these drought regimes onto agricultural drought risk maps for the three major cereal crops (rice, maize, and wheat) in China. Taking into account historical harvest areas for these crops, we then evaluate the potential impact of each drought regime on agricultural production. Third, the physical mechanisms and meteorological context behind each drought regimes are investigated based on monthly outputs from ERA20CM. We analyze the preceding and concurrent atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with each regime, and propose mechanistic explanations for drought development. This work provides a new perspective on diagnosing the physical mechanisms behind seasonal droughts, and lays a foundation for improving seasonal drought prediction and

  20. FISHER INFORMATION OF DYNAMIC REGIME TRANSITIONS IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecosystems often exhibit transitions between multiple dynamic regimes (or steady states). As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neighborhood of the current regime, or ?flip? into the neighborhood ...

  1. Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Broda

    2002-01-01

    Since Friedman (1953), an advantage often attributed to flexible exchange rate regimes over fixed regimes is their ability to insulate more effectively the economy against real shocks. I use a post-Bretton Woods sample (1973-96) of seventy-five developing countries to assess whether the responses of real GDP, real exchange rates, and prices to terms-of-trade shocks differ systematically across exchange rate regimes. I find that responses are significantly different across regimes in a way tha...

  2. Refrigeration. Two-Phase Flow. Flow Regimes and Pressure Drop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Hans-Jørgen Høgaard

    2002-01-01

    The note gives the basic definitions used in two-phase flow. Flow regimes and flow regimes map are introduced. The different contributions to the pressure drop are stated together with an imperical correlation from the litterature.......The note gives the basic definitions used in two-phase flow. Flow regimes and flow regimes map are introduced. The different contributions to the pressure drop are stated together with an imperical correlation from the litterature....

  3. Millennial-scale plankton regime shifts in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Kelton W; McCarthy, Matthew D; Sherwood, Owen A; Larsen, Thomas; Guilderson, Thomas P

    2015-12-18

    Climate change is predicted to alter marine phytoplankton communities and affect productivity, biogeochemistry, and the efficacy of the biological pump. We reconstructed high-resolution records of changing plankton community composition in the North Pacific Ocean over the past millennium. Amino acid-specific δ(13)C records preserved in long-lived deep-sea corals revealed three major plankton regimes corresponding to Northern Hemisphere climate periods. Non-dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria dominated during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 Common Era) before giving way to a new regime in which eukaryotic microalgae contributed nearly half of all export production during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 Common Era). The third regime, unprecedented in the past millennium, began in the industrial era and is characterized by increasing production by dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. This picoplankton community shift may provide a negative feedback to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  4. Adélie penguin foraging location predicted by tidal regime switching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Matthew J; Irwin, Andrew; Moline, Mark A; Fraser, William; Patterson, Donna; Schofield, Oscar; Kohut, Josh

    2013-01-01

    Penguin foraging and breeding success depend on broad-scale environmental and local-scale hydrographic features of their habitat. We investigated the effect of local tidal currents on a population of Adélie penguins on Humble Is., Antarctica. We used satellite-tagged penguins, an autonomous underwater vehicle, and historical tidal records to model of penguin foraging locations over ten seasons. The bearing of tidal currents did not oscillate daily, but rather between diurnal and semidiurnal tidal regimes. Adélie penguins foraging locations changed in response to tidal regime switching, and not to daily tidal patterns. The hydrography and foraging patterns of Adélie penguins during these switching tidal regimes suggest that they are responding to changing prey availability, as they are concentrated and dispersed in nearby Palmer Deep by variable tidal forcing on weekly timescales, providing a link between local currents and the ecology of this predator.

  5. Discussion paper : proposed adjustments to the governance of Canada's marine oil spill preparedness and response regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-12-01

    A series of changes have been proposed for Canada's current marine oil spill preparedness and response regimes which were established in August 1995 in an effort to develop a more integrated approach to managing oil spill preparedness and response. The proposed amendments aim to address the deficiencies of the regime through some regulatory change, a stronger accountability structure, and clear management guidelines. Some of the issues that should be addressed to strengthen the effectiveness of the regime as a whole include: (1) transparency of response organization (RO) preparedness and response fees, (2) level of wildlife contingency planning, (3) payment of Canadian Coast Guard response costs, and (4) ensuring a strong national system of preparedness and response. In terms of governance, a stronger role is recommended for the Regional Advisory Councils. The establishment of a User Committee and of a National Advisory Council are also recommended. figs

  6. Effect of water regime and salinity on artichoke yield

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Boari

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This work focuses on the effects of different salinity and water inputs on the yield of artichoke Violetto di Provenza. Two years of experimental works had been carried out in a site in Southern Italy characterized by semi-arid climate and deep loam soil. Three salinity levels of irrigation water (S0, S1 and S2 with electrical conductivity (ECw of 0.5, 5 and 10 dS m-1, respectively, were combined with three water regimes (W1, W2 and W3 corresponding in that order to 20 40 and 60% of available water depletion. The overall results of the salinity tolerance are in agreement with those from the literature. However, an higher tolerance to salinity was demonstrated when crop was watered more frequently (at 20% of available water depletion and a lower one when crop watering was performed less frequently (at 60% of available water depletion. The increase of salinity level reduced marketable yield (from 12.9 to 8.8 Mg ha-1, total heads (from 125,100 to 94,700 n ha-1 and heads mean weight (from 99.9 to 94.6 g, while increased heads dry matter (from 161.8 to 193.6 g kg-1 f.w. and reduced edible parte percentage of heads (from 35.2 to 33.2 %. Watering regimes, as average of the salinity levels, affected total heads marketable yield (115,350 n ha-1 and 11.4 Mg ha-1 for W1 and W2, 105,900 n ha-1 and 10 Mg ha-1 for W3. In addition, different watering regimes affected the secondary heads yield for which it was reduced by 3% of mean weight. The effect of different watering regimes changed with various salinity levels. In condition of moderate salinity (S1, maximum water depletion fraction to preserve heads number and weight yield was 40 and 20% of total soil available water, respectively. However, with high salinity (S2, maximum water depletion fraction to keep unchanged heads number and weight yield was 20% for both. The level of soil salinity at beginning of the crop cycle favoured the incidence of head atrophy in the main heads produced in the second year.

  7. Level-ARCH Short Rate Models with Regime Switching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    This paper introduces regime switching volatility into level- ARCH models for the short rates of the US, the UK, and Germany. Once regime switching and level effects are included there are no gains from including ARCH effects. It is of secondary importance exactly how the regime switching is spec...

  8. Mainstreaming solar : Stretching the regulatory regime through business model innovation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijben, J.C.C.M.; Verbong, G.P.J.; Podoynitsyna, K.S.

    This paper explores how the regulatory regime for Solar PV, defined as a combination of niche shielding and mainstream regulations, affects niche business models, using the Dutch and Flemish regulatory regimes as examples. The regulatory regime does not influence all components of the business

  9. The global nuclear safety regime and its impact in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almeida, C.

    2004-01-01

    This work describes the Global Nuclear Safety Regime that was established worldwide after the accident at the Tchernobyl nuclear power plant. This regime is composed of biding international safety conventions, globally accepted safety standard, and a voluntary peer review system. The impact of this Global Regime in Brazil is also discussed. (Author)

  10. Peaceful Protest, Political Regimes, and the Social Media Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    University, 2012 Randolph J. Fleming, II Major, United States Army B.A., Virginia Commonwealth University, 2004 Submitted in partial fulfillment of...intermediate regimes or transitioning regimes carrying the burden of instability and conflict.23 In a similar vein, Henderson identifies democracies, as...spreading infectious ideologies through ICT.25 Furthermore, Regan and Henderson indicate that intermediate, anocratic regimes tend to oppress

  11. Evolution and resilience of the nuclear nonproliferation regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pregenzer, Arian L.

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces the concept of systems resilience as a new framework for thinking about the future of the nonproliferation regime. Resilience refers to the ability of a system to maintain its vital functions in the face of continuous and unpredictable change. First, I make the case that the nonproliferation regime can be viewed as a complex system. Next, I discuss key themes from the literature on systems resilience and apply them to the nonproliferation system: the difference between resilience and stability; the need for evolution to maintain function; the importance of functional diversity; and the concept of the adaptive cycle. I show that most existing nonproliferation strategies are aimed at stability rather than resilience and that the current nonproliferation system may be over-constrained by the cumulative evolution of strategies. According to the literature on systems resilience, this increases its vulnerability to collapse. I argue that the resilience of the nonproliferation system can be enhanced by increasing international participation in setting the nonproliferation agenda, developing general international response capabilities, focusing on non-coercive approaches to decreasing demand, and applying systems thinking more rigorously to nonproliferation

  12. Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises,

  13. Evolution and resilience of the nuclear nonproliferation regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pregenzer, Arian L. [Senior Scientist, Retired, Sandia National Laboratories, 13013 Arroyo de Vista NE, Albuquerque, NM 87111 (United States)

    2014-05-09

    This paper introduces the concept of systems resilience as a new framework for thinking about the future of the nonproliferation regime. Resilience refers to the ability of a system to maintain its vital functions in the face of continuous and unpredictable change. First, I make the case that the nonproliferation regime can be viewed as a complex system. Next, I discuss key themes from the literature on systems resilience and apply them to the nonproliferation system: the difference between resilience and stability; the need for evolution to maintain function; the importance of functional diversity; and the concept of the adaptive cycle. I show that most existing nonproliferation strategies are aimed at stability rather than resilience and that the current nonproliferation system may be over-constrained by the cumulative evolution of strategies. According to the literature on systems resilience, this increases its vulnerability to collapse. I argue that the resilience of the nonproliferation system can be enhanced by increasing international participation in setting the nonproliferation agenda, developing general international response capabilities, focusing on non-coercive approaches to decreasing demand, and applying systems thinking more rigorously to nonproliferation.

  14. The Tributary Regime in the oil sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carta Petrolera

    1998-01-01

    The tributary regime of the oil sector, is framed by the fiscal crisis that the country, maxim if one keeps in mind the importance of the fiscal revenues originated in the exploitation of these resources in Colombia, so much for the tribute coming from the foreign investment of the sector, like for the utilities generated by ECOPETROL and its impact in the public finances. However in front of this focus, the strategic importance of maintaining the investment in hydrocarbons and the paper that the fiscal politics and the tributary politics for the sector should play in the future and they constitute the government's key pieces

  15. Electron acceleration in the bubble regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jansen, Oliver

    2014-02-03

    The bubble regime of laser-wakefield acceleration has been studied over the recent years as an important alternative to classical accelerators. Several models and theories have been published, in particular a theory which provides scaling laws for acceleration parameters such as energy gain and acceleration length. This thesis deals with numerical simulations within the bubble regime, their comparison to these scaling laws and data obtained from experiments, as well as some specific phenomenona. With a comparison of the scaling laws with numerical results a parameter scan was able to show a large parameter space in which simulation and theory agree. An investigation of the limits of this parameter space revealed boundaries to other regimes, especially at very high (a{sub 0} > 100) and very low laser amplitudes (a{sub 0} < 4). Comparing simulation data with data from experiments concerning laser pulse development and electron energies, it was found that experimental results can be adequately reproduced using the Virtual-Laser-Plasma-Laboratory code. In collaboration with the Institut fuer Optik und Quantenelektronik at the Friedrich-Schiller University Jena synchrotron radiation emitted from the inside of the bubble was investigated. A simulation of the movement of the electrons inside the bubble together with time dependent histograms of the emitted radiation helped to prove that the majority of radiation created during a bubble acceleration originates from the inside of the bubble. This radiation can be used to diagnose the amplitude of oscillation of the trapped electrons. During a further study it was proven that the polarisation of synchrotron radiation from a bubble contains information about the exact oscillation direction. This oscillation was successfully controlled by using either a laser pulse with a tilted pulse front or an asymmetric laser pulse. First results of ongoing studies concerning injecting electrons into an existing bubble and a scheme called

  16. Operation regimes of a dielectric laser accelerator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanuka, Adi; Schächter, Levi

    2018-04-01

    We investigate three operation regimes in dielectric laser driven accelerators: maximum efficiency, maximum charge, and maximum loaded gradient. We demonstrate, using a self-consistent approach, that loaded gradients of the order of 1 to 6 [GV/m], efficiencies of 20% to 80%, and electrons flux of 1014 [el/s] are feasible, without significant concerns regarding damage threshold fluence. The latter imposes that the total charge per squared wavelength is constant (a total of 106 per μm2). We conceive this configuration as a zero-order design that should be considered for the road map of future accelerators.

  17. The trade regime and the climate regime. Institutional evolution and adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brewer, Thomas L.

    2003-01-01

    This article addresses concerns that the multilateral trade regime centered in the WTO and the emerging climate regime may conflict in ways that could be damaging to either or both. The article discusses the institutional and diplomatic context of these concerns, and it identifies the kinds of issues that are in question. The analysis suggests that there are opportunities for win-win outcomes in the interactions of the two regimes, for instance in the possibility of reducing fossil fuel subsidies. However, there are also problematic areas where they intersect. A core issue-and as yet an unresolved one-is whether and how emission credit trading and other activities envisioned by the Kyoto Protocol would be subject to WTO rules. The resolution of this issue will affect many other issues as well. Additional specific issues about the interactions of particular provisions in WTO agreements and the Kyoto Protocol are analyzed in a subsequent companion article in Climate Policy

  18. Food crises, food regimes and food movements: rumblings of reform or tides of transformation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt Giménez, Eric; Shattuck, Annie

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the potential for food movements to bring about substantive changes to the current global food system. After describing the current corporate food regime, we apply Karl Polanyi's 'double-movement' thesis on capitalism to explain the regime's trends of neoliberalism and reform. Using the global food crisis as a point of departure, we introduce a comparative analytical framework for different political and social trends within the corporate food regime and global food movements, characterizing them as 'Neoliberal', 'Reformist', 'Progressive', and 'Radical', respectively, and describe each trend based on its discourse, model, and key actors, approach to the food crisis, and key documents. After a discussion of class, political permeability, and tensions within the food movements, we suggest that the current food crisis offers opportunities for strategic alliances between Progressive and Radical trends within the food movement. We conclude that while the food crisis has brought a retrenchment of neoliberalization and weak calls for reform, the worldwide growth of food movements directly and indirectly challenge the legitimacy and hegemony of the corporate food regime. Regime change will require sustained pressure from a strong global food movement, built on durable alliances between Progressive and Radical trends.

  19. The role of the geophysical template and environmental regimes in controlling stream-living trout populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penaluna, Brooke E.; Railsback, Steve F.; Dunham, Jason B.; Johnson, S.; Bilby, Richard E.; Skaugset, Arne E.

    2015-01-01

    The importance of multiple processes and instream factors to aquatic biota has been explored extensively, but questions remain about how local spatiotemporal variability of aquatic biota is tied to environmental regimes and the geophysical template of streams. We used an individual-based trout model to explore the relative role of the geophysical template versus environmental regimes on biomass of trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii). We parameterized the model with observed data from each of the four headwater streams (their local geophysical template and environmental regime) and then ran 12 simulations where we replaced environmental regimes (stream temperature, flow, turbidity) of a given stream with values from each neighboring stream while keeping the geophysical template fixed. We also performed single-parameter sensitivity analyses on the model results from each of the four streams. Although our modeled findings show that trout biomass is most responsive to changes in the geophysical template of streams, they also reveal that biomass is restricted by available habitat during seasonal low flow, which is a product of both the stream’s geophysical template and flow regime. Our modeled results suggest that differences in the geophysical template among streams render trout more or less sensitive to environmental change, emphasizing the importance of local fish–habitat relationships in streams.

  20. Transient regimes in a heavy water reactor; Regimes transitoires dans un reacteur a eau lourde

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raievski, V [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay(France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

    1953-07-01

    We studied the variations of power and reactivity of a reactor when we raise in a continuous way the starting plates. During the subcritical regime (negative reactivity), the power is determined by reactivity and by the intensity of the sources of photo neutrons, produced during the previous work of the reactor. When, during the rise of the plates, the reactor, pass by the critical regime (zero reactivity), one notes that the reached power is independent of the initial reactivity. During the sur-critical regime (positive reactivity), the elevation of temperature of the uranium bars slows down the growth of reactivity due to the movements of the plates. The power stretches then toward a value that depends only on the regime of cooling of the reactor and the excess of the available reactivity. This survey permits to choose such a rise speed, that reactivity remains constantly lower to a value beyond which the piloting of the reactor becomes difficult. This result is not more valid, if the intensity of the sources is insufficient, what takes place during the first divergences and after a stop of long length. (author) [French] On etudie les variations de puissance et de reactivite d'un reacteur quand on leve d'une facon continue les plaques de demarrage. Pendant le regime subcritique (reactivite negative), la puissance est determinee par la reactivite et par l'intensite des sources de photoneutrons, produites pendant la marche anterieure du reacteur. Quand, au cours de la montee des plaques, le reacteur passe par le regime critique (reactivite nulle), on constate que la puissance atteinte est independante de la reactivite initiale. Pendant le regime surcritique (reactivite positive), l'elevation de temperature des barres d'uranium ralentit l'accroissement de reactivite due aux mouvements des plaques. La puissance tend alors vers une valeur qui ne depend plus que du regime de refroidissement du reacteur et de l'exces de la reactivite disponible. Cette etude permet de

  1. Pulse regime in formation of fractal fibers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smirnov, B. M., E-mail: bmsmirnov@gmail.com [Joint Institute for High Temperatures (Russian Federation)

    2016-11-15

    The pulse regime of vaporization of a bulk metal located in a buffer gas is analyzed as a method of generation of metal atoms under the action of a plasma torch or a laser beam. Subsequently these atoms are transformed into solid nanoclusters, fractal aggregates and then into fractal fibers if the growth process proceeds in an external electric field. We are guided by metals in which transitions between s and d-electrons of their atoms are possible, since these metals are used as catalysts and filters in interaction with gas flows. The resistance of metal fractal structures to a gas flow is evaluated that allows one to find optimal parameters of a fractal structure for gas flow propagation through it. The thermal regime of interaction between a plasma pulse or a laser beam and a metal surface is analyzed. It is shown that the basic energy from an external source is consumed on a bulk metal heating, and the efficiency of atom evaporation from the metal surface, that is the ratio of energy fluxes for vaporization and heating, is 10{sup –3}–10{sup –4} for transient metals under consideration. A typical energy flux (~10{sup 6} W/cm{sup 2}), a typical surface temperature (~3000 K), and a typical pulse duration (~1 μs) provide a sufficient amount of evaporated atoms to generate fractal fibers such that each molecule of a gas flow collides with the skeleton of fractal fibers many times.

  2. Managing Disagreement: A Defense of "Regime Bias"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabl, Andrew

    2011-02-01

    Stein Ringen's theory of democratic purpose cannot do the work expected of it. Ringen's own criteria oscillate between being too vague to be useful (i.e. "freedom") or, when specified more fully, conflicting, so that almost all democracies will seem to be potentially at cross-purposes with themselves rather than their purposes or sub-purposes being mutually reinforcing. This reflects a bigger and more theoretical problem. Disagreement about the purpose of democracy is built into democracy itself. The whole point of many (perhaps all) of our democratic institutions is to arrive at conditionally legitimate decisions in spite of such disagreement. So-called regime bias, i.e. the tendency to assess democracies according to the form and stability of their institutions rather than their results or their ability to serve certain purposes, does not in fact arise from bias. It arises on the contrary from a determination to avoid the bias inherent in giving some-inevitably partisan-ideals of what democracies should do pride of place over others in a scheme of measurement or evaluation. And even a regime-based definition of democracy must itself make simplifying assumptions that elide possible normative controversies over how the democratic game is best played. Vindicating one's preferred set of democratic ideals against alternatives is a completely legitimate enterprise and lends richness to debates within and across democracies. But it is an inherently ideological and political enterprise, not a neutral or scholarly one.

  3. Tlatelolco regime and nonproliferation in Latin America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redick, J.R.

    1981-01-01

    The regime established by the Treaty of Tlatelolco supports peace and security in the Latin American region and global nonproliferation efforts. Circumstances leading to the creation of the nuclear-weapon-free zone include careful preparations and negotiations, individual leadership, existence of certain shared cultural and legal traditions of Latin American countries, and the temporary stimulus of the Cuban missile crisis. The lack of overt superpower pressure on Latin America, compared with more turbulent regions, has permitted continued progress toward full realization of the zone. Tlatelolco's negotiating process, as well as the substance of the Treaty, deserve careful consideration relative to other areas. The Treaty enjoys wide international approval, but full support by certain Latin American States (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cuba) has been negatively affected by the failure of the US Senate to ratify Tlatelolco's Protocol I. Nuclear programs of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico are expanding rapidly and these nations are forming linkages with West European countries, rather than the United States. The May 1980 Argentine-Brazilian nuclear agreement foresees significant cooperation between the two nation's nuclear energy commissions and more coordinated resistance to the nuclear supplier countries. Argentine-Brazilian nuclear convergence and the response accorded to it by the United States will have significant implications for the future of the Tlatelolco regime and nonproliferation in Latin America. 52 references

  4. Three novel tokamak plasma regimes in TFTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furth, H.P.

    1985-10-01

    Aside from extending ''standard'' ohmic and neutral beam heating studies to advanced plasma parameters, TFTR has encountered a number of special plasma regimes that have the potential to shed new light on the physics of tokamak confinement and the optimal design of future D-T facilities: (1) High-powered, neutral beam heating at low plasma densities can maintain a highly reactive hot-ion population (with quasi-steady-state beam fueling and current drive) in a tokamak configuration of modest bulk-plasma confinement requirements. (2) Plasma displacement away from limiter contact lends itself to clarification of the role of edge-plasma recycling and radiation cooling within the overall pattern of tokamak heat flow. (3) Noncentral auxiliary heating (with a ''hollow'' power-deposition profile) should serve to raise the central tokamak plasma temperature without deterioration of central region confinement, thus facilitating the study of alpha-heating effects in TFTR. The experimental results of regime (3) support the theory that tokamak profile consistency is related to resistive kink stability and that the global energy confinement time is determined by transport properties of the plasma edge region

  5. Strengthening the non proliferation regime: French views

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delaune, P.

    2013-01-01

    3 main issues can be identified in the French policy concerning the backing of non proliferation: 1) responding resolutely to proliferation crises, 2) reinforcing substantive efforts to prevent and impede proliferation, and 3) strengthening the non-proliferation regime. The first issue is very important because combating proliferation is vital to the security of all. Concerning the second issue, France attaches particular importance to strengthening specific measures to prevent and check proliferation. Let me mention a few proposals that we put forward: exports need to be controlled more effectively, proliferation activities have to be criminalized, or the development of proliferation-resistant technologies should be supported. Concerning the third issue it means the strengthening of the non-proliferation regime, France proposes several means: -) aiming at the universalization of the additional protocol; -) ensuring that the Agency continues to have sufficient human, financial and technical resources to fulfill its verification mission effectively; -) encouraging the IAEA to make full use of the authority available to it; -) enhancing the use of information relevant to the delivery of the IAEA mandate; and -) sharing more accurate information concerning the breaches of commitments that happen. The paper is followed by the slides of the presentation. (A.C.)

  6. Characterizing multistationarity regimes in biochemical reaction networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene Otero-Muras

    Full Text Available Switch like responses appear as common strategies in the regulation of cellular systems. Here we present a method to characterize bistable regimes in biochemical reaction networks that can be of use to both direct and reverse engineering of biological switches. In the design of a synthetic biological switch, it is important to study the capability for bistability of the underlying biochemical network structure. Chemical Reaction Network Theory (CRNT may help at this level to decide whether a given network has the capacity for multiple positive equilibria, based on their structural properties. However, in order to build a working switch, we also need to ensure that the bistability property is robust, by studying the conditions leading to the existence of two different steady states. In the reverse engineering of biological switches, knowledge collected about the bistable regimes of the underlying potential model structures can contribute at the model identification stage to a drastic reduction of the feasible region in the parameter space of search. In this work, we make use and extend previous results of the CRNT, aiming not only to discriminate whether a biochemical reaction network can exhibit multiple steady states, but also to determine the regions within the whole space of parameters capable of producing multistationarity. To that purpose we present and justify a condition on the parameters of biochemical networks for the appearance of multistationarity, and propose an efficient and reliable computational method to check its satisfaction through the parameter space.

  7. Unified flow regime predictions at earth gravity and microgravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, C.J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper illustrates the mechanistic models developed to predict flow regime transitions at earth gravity for various pipe inclinations can be successfully applied to existing microgravity flow regime data from several experiments. There is a tendency in the literature for flow regime comparisons in several inclination ranges and at various gravity (acceleration) levels to be treated by separate models, resulting in a proliferation of models for the prediction of flow regimes. One set of mechanistic models can be used to model the transitions between stratified, slug, bubbly, and annular flow regimes in pipes for all acceleration vectors and magnitudes from earth gravity to microgravity

  8. Fiscal Policy and Welfare under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østrup, Finn

    a representativeindividual's utility, it is demonstrated that there are differences betweenexchange rate regimes with respect to the level of government spending. Thesedifferences arise first because a rise in government spending affects macroeconomicvariables differently under different exchange rate regimes......, and secondbecause the government's inclination to expand government spending is affectedby inflation which depends on the exchange rate regime. At low rates of inflation,the government is inclined to set a higher level of government spending under afixed exchange rate regime than under a floating exchange rate...... regime in whichthe monetary authority optimises preferences which include an employment targetand an inflation target. As government spending affects the representativeindividual's utility, the choice of exchange rate regime has an impact on welfare.Keywords: exchange rate regimes; fiscal policy...

  9. Regime Shift Identification of Runoff and Sediment Loads in the Yellow River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Wang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Runoff and sediment loads have exhibited significant changes over the past six decades in the Yellow River Basin, China. The current study evaluates the changing trends and regime shifts in runoff and sediment loads at both the annual and monthly time scales. The associated spatial and temporal variations are analyzed by a sequential t-test analysis of the regime shifts (STARS approach and the “breaks for additive seasonal and trend” (BFAST model using hydrological data at eight stations from the 1950s to 2011. Both runoff and sediment loads exhibit significant declines (p < 0.05, except in the upper reaches of the river near the Tangnaihai station. The regime shifts detected by the STARS approach are not completely consistent with the results from the BFAST method. In most cases, the regime shifts occurred in 1969 and 1986, due to the construction of large reservoirs. Climate change and other human activities, such as large-scale soil and water conservation measures, can result in abrupt changes in hydrological series at some stations. The trapping effects of reservoirs not only cause regime shifts of runoff and sediment loads, but also adjust their inter-annual and seasonal distributions. Various soil and water conservation measures are responsible for the significant reduction in runoff and sediment loads in the mid-lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin. In addition, water withdrawals from both river runoff and ground water play a critical role in the changing trends in runoff and indirectly alter the sediment loads. The findings provide a good reference for the effective promotion of climate change adaptation, water resources planning and river basin management.

  10. Multi-scale friction modeling for sheet metal forming: the boundary lubrication regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hol, J.D.; Meinders, Vincent T.; de Rooij, Matthias B.; van den Boogaard, Antonius H.

    2015-01-01

    A physical based friction model is presented to describe friction in full-scale forming simulations. The advanced friction model accounts for the change in surface topography and the evolution of friction in the boundary lubrication regime. The implementation of the friction model in FE software

  11. Have East Asian stock markets calmed down? Evidence from a regime-switching model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chaudhuri, K.R.; Klaassen, F.

    2001-01-01

    The 1997-98 East Asian crisis was accompanied by high volatility of East Asian stock returns. This paper examines whether the volatility has already come down to the level of the years before the crisis. We use a regime-switching model to account for possible structural change in the unconditional

  12. Littoral zones in shallow lakes. Contribution to water quality in relation to water level regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sollie, S.

    2007-01-01

    Littoral zones with emergent vegetation are very narrow or even lacking in Dutch shallow lakes due to a combination of changed water level regime and unfavorable shore morphometry. These zones are important as a habitat for plants and animals, increasing species diversity. It has also been

  13. Photosynthetic plasticity of populations of Heliotropium curassavicum L. originating from differing thermal regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, H A

    1980-01-01

    Plants of the widely distributed species Heliotropium curassavicum L. have a large photosynthetic acclimation potential to temperature. There are, however, some differences among the acclimation potentials of populations occupying dissimilar thermal regimes. Plants of populations originating from a cool maritime climate have a greater acclimation potential than plants of populations originating from a desert habitat, which is characterized by large seasonal changes in temperature.

  14. The structuration of socio-technical regimes - Conceptual foundations from institutional theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fuenfschilling, Lea; Truffer, Bernhard|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/6603148005

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, socio-technical transitions literature has gained importance in addressing long-term, transformative change in various industries. In order to account for the inertia and path-dependency experienced in these sectors, the concept of the socio-technical regime has been formulated.

  15. Neoclassical kinetic theory near an X point: Plateau regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solano, E.R.; Hazeltine, R.D.

    1994-01-01

    Traditionally, neoclassical transport calculations ignore poloidal variation of the poloidal magnetic field. Near an X point of the confining field of a diverted plasma, the poloidal field is small, causing guiding centers to linger at that poloidal position. A study of how neoclassical transport is affected by this differential shaping is presented. The problem is solved in general in the plateau regime, and a model poloidal flux function with an X point is utilized as an analytic example to show that the plateau diffusion coefficient can change considerably (factor of 2 reduction). Ion poloidal rotation is proportional to the local value of B pol but otherwise it is not strongly affected by shaping. The usual favorable scaling of neoclassical confinement time with plasma current is unaffected by the X point

  16. New Mobilities Regimes in Art and Social Sciences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Witzgall, Susanne; Vogl, Gerlinde; Kesselring, Sven

    New Mobilities Regimes analyses how global mobilities are changing the world of today and the role of political and economic power. Bringing together essays by leading scholars and social scientists, including Mimi Sheller and Bülent Diken with the work of well-known artists and art theorists...... such as Jordan Crandall, Ursula Bieman, Gülsün Karamustafa and Dan Perjovschi this book is a unique document of the cross-disciplinary mobility and power discourse. The specific design, integrating the text and art elements to create a singular dialogue makes for an exciting intellectual and aesthetic experience...... for the reassessment of the figurative arts in providing independent and insightful knowledge-generating research on the nature of mobility and highlights the new appreciation of visual representations in sociology, cultural geography and anthropology. Contents: Preface; Part I Introduction: Mobility and the image...

  17. On a regime of plasma heating with a constant impedance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gertsenshtejn, M.E.; Pogosyan, V.A.

    1977-01-01

    It is shown that as a result of the pulsed heating of the solid-state plasma in the regime of the spreading of the ionization wave its impedance is weakly changed in relation to the current source in the process of heating. Also studied are pecularities of the spreading of ionization wave at densities of the condensed state. For the existence of the ionization were its speed should exceed the speed of the breakdown wave. It is indicated that the width of the front of the ionization wave is mainly determinated by the thickness of the skin-layer. The value of the critical field is obtained for dielectrics for the pulse duration of 5-100 ns, equal to E = 10 7 V/cm. If the limit field exceeds the value of the critical field by three times the value of the energy current approximately amounts to 10 14 W/cm 2

  18. Do housing regimes matter? : Assessing the concept of housing regimes through configurations of housing outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewilde, C.L.

    2017-01-01

    Based on a conceptualisation of de-commodification as the right to decent and affordable housing, we assessed to what extent this right is realised for low-to-moderate-income owners and renters across Western European housing regimes in 1995 and 2012. If differences in the social production of

  19. Modern fire regime resembles historical fire regime in a ponderosa pine forest on Native American land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amanda B. Stan; Peter Z. Fule; Kathryn B. Ireland; Jamie S. Sanderlin

    2014-01-01

    Forests on tribal lands in the western United States have seen the return of low-intensity surface fires for several decades longer than forests on non-tribal lands. We examined the surface fire regime in a ponderosa pinedominated (Pinus ponderosa) forest on the Hualapai tribal lands in the south-western United States. Using fire-scarred trees, we inferred temporal (...

  20. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  1. Proliferation studies for different radiotherapy fractionation regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, L.

    1996-01-01

    Full text: This study was undertaken to investigate extended treatment schedules and compare the differences between schedules for highly proliferative tumours. Treatment schedules can be extended for various reasons e.g. public holidays, early side effects. For highly proliferative tumours this can dramatically reduce the effective dose delivered to the tumour. To deduce the most effective schedule fractionation regimes are compared to a common schedule so that the effects can be understood. Thus an equation to allow this to be done for the proliferative case has been derived. (i) The linear quadratic model with proliferation has been used to investigate the effect on biological effective dose (BED) when treatment schedules are extended. (ii) An equation was derived for comparison with a standard effective dose (SED) of 2Gy/fraction given daily 5 days per week, this is a common schedule in most radiotherapy centres. The SED equation derived for the proliferative case is where n 1 and n 2 are the number of fractions for the initial and equivalent schedules respectively, d 1 is the dose delivered per fraction for the initial schedules. T 1 is the time taken for the initial schedule (in days) and T p is the proliferation half life for the tumour involved. SEDs were calculated for the CHART regime of 36 fractions at 1.5 Gy in 12 days (Saunders et al. 1988, cited in Fowler J F, Brit. J. Radiol. 62: 679-694, 1989) and various other schedules. Late effects of these schedules and their standard equivalents were compared. The dose required to achieve the same BED when a treatment schedule is extended has been found to be quite large in some circumstances. For breast tumours a loss of 2Gy 10 BED to tumour occurs after ten days extension of treatment time (T p =12 days,T k =12 days). For head and neck tumours a loss of 2Gy 10 BED occurs after only three and a half days (T p =3 days). From these results it seems that an accelerated fractionation schedule would be advantageous

  2. Coulomb Impurity Problem of Graphene in Strong Coupling Regime in Magnetic Fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S C; Yang, S-R Eric

    2015-10-01

    We investigate the Coulomb impurity problem of graphene in strong coupling limit in the presence of magnetic fields. When the strength of the Coulomb potential is sufficiently strong the electron of the lowest energy boundstate of the n = 0 Landau level may fall to the center of the potential. To prevent this spurious effect the Coulomb potential must be regularized. The scaling function for the inverse probability density of this state at the center of the impurity potential is computed in the strong coupling regime. The dependence of the computed scaling function on the regularization parameter changes significantly as the strong coupling regime is approached.

  3. The Role of an Electric Field in the Formation of a Detached Regime in Tokamak Plasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senichenkov, I.; Kaveeva, E.; Rozhansky, V.; Sytova, E.; Veselova, I.; Voskoboynikov, S.; Coster, D.

    2018-03-01

    Modeling of the transition to the detachment of ASDEX Upgrade tokamak plasma with increasing density is performed using the SOLPS-ITER numerical code with a self-consistent account of drifts and currents. Their role in plasma redistribution both in the confinement region and in the scrape-off layer (SOL) is investigated. The mechanism of high field side high-density formation in the SOL in the course of detachment is suggested. In the full detachment regime, when the cold plasma region expands above the X-point and reaches closed magnetic-flux surfaces, plasma perturbation in a confined region may lead to a change in the confinement regime.

  4. De Facto Exchange Rate Regime in Korea: Is It Still A Dollar Peg?

    OpenAIRE

    Han Geun Moon

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to test the common view on the actual exchange rate regime, using very simple but intuitive OLS regression models based on Frankel and Wei's work (1994). The results show that, firstly, East Asian countries including Korea have returned to the dollar peg or managed floating after the restoration from the crisis, as they did during the pre-crisis period. The results also show that Korea has substantially changed her exchange rate regime since January 2001, but othe...

  5. Antecedents of Teachers Fostering Effort within Two Different Management Regimes: An Assessment-Based Accountability Regime and Regime without External Pressure on Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christophersen, Knut-Andreas; Elstad, Eyvind; Turmo, Are

    2012-01-01

    This article focuses on the comparison of organizational antecedents of teachers' fostering of students' effort in two quite different accountability regimes: one management regime with an external-accountability system and one with no external accountability devices. The methodology involves cross-sectional surveys from two different management…

  6. The metabolic regimes of flowing waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhardt, Emily S.; Heffernan, Jim B.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Stanley, Emily H.; Harvey, Judson; Arroita, M.; Appling, Alison; Cohen, M.J.; McDowell, William H.; Hall, R.O.; Read, Jordan S.; Roberts, B.J.; Stets, Edward; Yackulic, Charles B.

    2018-01-01

    The processes and biomass that characterize any ecosystem are fundamentally constrained by the total amount of energy that is either fixed within or delivered across its boundaries. Ultimately, ecosystems may be understood and classified by their rates of total and net productivity and by the seasonal patterns of photosynthesis and respiration. Such understanding is well developed for terrestrial and lentic ecosystems but our understanding of ecosystem phenology has lagged well behind for rivers. The proliferation of reliable and inexpensive sensors for monitoring dissolved oxygen and carbon dioxide is underpinning a revolution in our understanding of the ecosystem energetics of rivers. Here, we synthesize our current understanding of the drivers and constraints on river metabolism, and set out a research agenda aimed at characterizing, classifying and modeling the current and future metabolic regimes of flowing waters.

  7. Alumina strength degradation in the elastic regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furnish, Michael D.; Chhabildas, Lalit C.

    1998-01-01

    Measurements of Kanel et al. [1991] have suggested that deviatoric stresses in glasses shocked to nearly the Hugoniot Elastic Limit (HEL) relax over a time span of microseconds after initial loading. 'Failure' (damage) waves have been inferred on the basis of these measurements using time-resolved manganin normal and transverse stress gauges. Additional experiments on glass by other researchers, using time-resolved gauges, high-speed photography and spall strength determinations have also lead to the same conclusions. In the present study we have conducted transmitted-wave experiments on high-quality Coors AD995 alumina shocked to roughly 5 and 7 GPa (just below or at the HEL). The material is subsequently reshocked to just above its elastic limit. Results of these experiments do show some evidence of strength degradation in the elastic regime

  8. Random nanolasing in the Anderson localized regime

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Jin; Garcia, P. D.; Ek, Sara

    2014-01-01

    The development of nanoscale optical devices for classical and quantum photonics is affected by unavoidable fabrication imperfections that often impose performance limitations. However, disorder may also enable new functionalities, for example in random lasers, where lasing relies on random...... multiple scattering. The applicability of random lasers has been limited due to multidirectional emission, lack of tunability, and strong mode competition with chaotic fluctuations due to a weak mode confinement. The regime of Anderson localization of light has been proposed for obtaining stable multimode...... random lasing, and initial work concerned macroscopic one-dimensional layered media. Here, we demonstrate on-chip random nanolasers where the cavity feedback is provided by the intrinsic disorder. The strong confinement achieved by Anderson localization reduces the spatial overlap between lasing modes...

  9. Il futuro regime dei tassi di cambio.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. WILLIAMSON

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available When the Committee of Twenty decided to rename the exchange-rate regime rather than reform it, some two weeks after the system had collapsed, it immediately became clear that the ambitious attempt to write a new monetary constitution for the world had failed. If future attempts to reform world monetary relations are not to be equally doomed to failure, a primary requirement is a more realistic approach to this central issue. Accordingly, this paper is devoted to a consideration of the type of approach that wold be required. The author considers what solutions are feasible, managed floating versus crawling par values, the reference rate proposal and reference rates as the basis for a reformed system. JEL: E42, F33

  10. Nonadiabatic effects in the Quantum Hall regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Page, D.A.; Brown, E.

    1993-01-01

    The authors consider the effect of a finite electric field on the states of a Bloch electron in two dimensions, with a uniform magnetic field present. They make use of the concept of electric time translation symmetry and treat the electric and magnetic fields symmetrically in a time dependent formalism. In addition to a wave vector k, the states are characterized by a frequency specifying the behavior under electric time translations. An effective Hamiltonian is employed to obtain the splitting of an isolated Bloch band into open-quotes frequencyclose quotes subbands. The time-averaged velocity and energy of the states are expressed in terms of the frequency dispersion. The relationship to the Stark ladder eigenstates in a scalar potential representation of the electric field is examined. This is seen to justify the use of the averaged energy in determining occupation of the states. In the weak electric field (adiabatic) limit, an expression is recovered for the quantized Hall conductivity of a magnetic subband as a topological invariant. A numerical procedure is outlined and results obtained over a range of electric field strengths. A transition between strong and weak field regimes is seen, with level repulsions between the frequencies playing an important role. The numerical results show how the magnetic subband structure and quantized Hall conductivity emerge as the electric field becomes weaker. In this regime, the behavior can be understood by comparison to the predictions of the adiabatic approximation. The latter predicts crossings in the frequencies at certain locations in wave vector space. Nonadiabatic effects are seen to produce gaps in the frequency spectrum at these locations. 35 refs., 14 figs

  11. The role of the media in establishing international security regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chanan Naveh

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses primarily on the media's impact on international security regimes. It explores the ways in which the media affect the lifecycles of international regimes, from the time they are first conceived of, through their establishment, consolidation and stabilization, up until their ultimate demise. Although this paper highlights the media's role in the evolution of security regimes, it is clear that, regardless of the regime in question, media play a role throughout the lifecycle of all international regimes, whatever their character. In order to analyze the relationships of the media with security regimes in general, and specifically their contribution to each stage in their development, the article utilizes methodologies from the field of communication studies. It examines the media's agenda, "news values" and various functions, and their ability to mobilize public support for the particular issue of the regime. To date, most studies have explored the interaction between media communication patterns and global developments at the state level, or in relation to the formulation of foreign policy, while largely ignoring the international dimension of the relationship. This article attempts to remedy this situation, and the relevant processes are analysed in a case study of the anti-Iraq international security regime. It should be noted that although the paper focuses on the specific anti-Iraqi regime, it is part of a more general Anti-Rogue actors regime which includes the war against global terrorism. The study of the development of the anti-Iraq press-security regime teaches us that during international crises the media mobilize and unanimously support the regime fighting the "bad guys." But, when the regime develops and enters disputed turfs and begins to lose its legitimacy, media support diminishes, and the media may even develop into an opposing force and may join the actors fighting against this regime. Moreover, the study of

  12. The impact of monetary policy and exchange rate regime on real GDP and prices in the Republic of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeqiri Izet

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the relative costs and benefits associated with introducing a more active monetary and a different exchange rate regime in the Republic of Macedonia. In this finding, the econometrics result show that introducing a more active monetary policy and a different strategy of the exchange rate targeting in order to promote rapid economic growth could easy disturb macroeconomic stability (after having achieved it at a substantial cost without any significant economic benefits. Therefore, introducing a more active monetary policy and a different strategy of the exchange rate regime is likely to incur more costs than benefits, since changes of the monetary policy and exchange rate regime type do not show a persistent effect on real GDP, while changes of money stock and exchange rate regime do show a strong and persistent effect on prices level.

  13. Artificial light alters natural regimes of night-time sky brightness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Thomas W.; Bennie, Jonathan; Inger, Richard; Gaston, Kevin J.

    2013-01-01

    Artificial light is globally one of the most widely distributed forms of anthropogenic pollution. However, while both the nature and ecological effects of direct artificial lighting are increasingly well documented, those of artificial sky glow have received little attention. We investigated how city lights alter natural regimes of lunar sky brightness using a novel ten month time series of measurements recorded across a gradient of increasing light pollution. In the city, artificial lights increased sky brightness to levels six times above those recorded in rural locations, nine and twenty kilometers away. Artificial lighting masked natural monthly and seasonal regimes of lunar sky brightness in the city, and increased the number and annual regime of full moon equivalent hours available to organisms during the night. The changes have potentially profound ecological consequences.

  14. Indications for chlororespiration in relation to light regime in the marine diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dijkman, Nicole A; Kroon, Bernd M A

    2002-04-01

    The marine diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii was cultured under a light regime simulating the daily rise and fall of the sun. The light regime caused a daily cycle in non-photochemical quenching. Remarkable were the changes in fluorescence directly after a light-to-dark transition that occurred in addition to the changes induced by non-photochemical quenching. A transient non-photochemical reduction of PQ and of Q(A) was indicated by a transient increase in apparent F(o) and by changes in the shape of the fluorescence induction curve. The observed changes developed approximately the first 100-120 s after a light-to-dark transition and could be reversed by the application of far-red illumination. Chlororespiration is thought to cause the reduction of PQ and, as the PQ-pool is in equilibrium with Q(A), also a reduction of Q(A). The function and ecological relevance of chlororespiration are discussed.

  15. Linguistic Justice for which Demos? The Democratic Legitimacy of Language Regime Choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garcia Núria

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In the European Union language regime debate, theorists of multiculturalism and cosmopolitanism have framed their arguments in reference to different theories of justice and democracy. Philippe Van Parijs advocates the diffusion of a lingua franca, namely English, as means of changing the scale of the justificatory community to the European level and allowing the creation of a transnational demos. Paradoxically, one key dimension of democracy has hardly been addressed in this discussion: the question of the democratic legitimacy of language regime choices and citizens’ preferences on the different language regime scenarios. Addressing the question of the congruence of language policy choices operated by national and European elites and ordinary citizens’ preferences, this paper argues first that the dimension of democratic legitimacy is crucial and needs to be taken into account in discussions around linguistic justice. Criticizing the assumption of a direct correspondence between individuals’ language learning choices and citizens’ language regime preferences made by different authors, the analysis shows the ambivalence of citizens’ preferences measured by survey data. The article secondly raises the question of the boundaries of the political community at which the expression of citizens’ preferences should be measured and demonstrates that the outcome and the fairness of territorial linguistic regimes may vary significantly according to the level at which this democratic legitimacy is taken into account.

  16. The Water Abstraction License Regime in Italy: A Case for Reform?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Santato

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The current Water Abstraction License (WAL regime in Italy is no longer flexible enough to cope with the challenges posed by human-induced climate and global environmental changes. The cornerstones of the current regime were laid down in the 1930s and have remained essentially unchanged ever since. The sole noteworthy reform of the Italian WAL regime was the decentralization of the regulatory competences from the state to the regional authorities in the late 1990s. In this paper, we review the WAL regimes across the administrative regions comprising the Po River Basin District (PRBD, the largest and economically most important in Italy. PRBD’s WAL regime includes a rigid and scattered WAL normative that hinders the performance of bottom-up conflict resolution mechanisms at a basin scale; a water pricing scheme that does not reflect the cost of water conveyance and use, and does not encourage efficient water allocation; and the lack of a central WAL register, which delays and in some cases impedes an environmental impact assessment for issuing new licenses or renewing existing ones, and does not allow prioritizing applications according to their full economic value. We argue these deficiencies may compromise both the integrity of riverine and water dependent ecosystems and the economic uses of water. This paper offers insights that can inform reform of water allocations in the PRBD and elsewhere in Italy and in Europe.

  17. Shifting balance of thermokarst lake ice regimes across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Lu, Zong; Whitman, Matthew S.

    2012-01-01

    The balance of thermokarst lakes with bedfast- and floating-ice regimes across Arctic lowlands regulates heat storage, permafrost thaw, winter-water supply, and over-wintering aquatic habitat. Using a time-series of late-winter synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to distinguish lake ice regimes in two regions of the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska from 2003–2011, we found that 18% of the lakes had intermittent ice regimes, varying between bedfast-ice and floating-ice conditions. Comparing this dataset with a radar-based lake classification from 1980 showed that 16% of the bedfast-ice lakes had shifted to floating-ice regimes. A simulated lake ice thinning trend of 1.5 cm/yr since 1978 is believed to be the primary factor driving this form of lake change. The most profound impacts of this regime shift in Arctic lakes may be an increase in the landscape-scale thermal offset created by additional lake heat storage and its role in talik development in otherwise continuous permafrost as well as increases in over-winter aquatic habitat and winter-water supply.

  18. Flow Regime Classification and Hydrological Characterization: A Case Study of Ethiopian Rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belete Berhanu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The spatiotemporal variability of a stream flow due to the complex interaction of catchment attributes and rainfall induce complexity in hydrology. Researchers have been trying to address this complexity with a number of approaches; river flow regime is one of them. The flow regime can be quantified by means of hydrological indices characterizing five components: magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change of flow. Similarly, this study aimed to understand the flow variability of Ethiopian Rivers using the observed daily flow data from 208 gauging stations in the country. With this process, the Hierarchical Ward Clustering method was implemented to group the streams into three flow regimes (1 ephemeral, (2 intermittent, and (3 perennial. Principal component analysis (PCA is also applied as the second multivariate analysis tool to identify dominant hydrological indices that cause the variability in the streams. The mean flow per unit catchment area (QmAR and Base flow index (BFI show an incremental trend with ephemeral, intermittent and perennial streams. Whereas the number of mean zero flow days ratio (ZFI and coefficient of variation (CV show a decreasing trend with ephemeral to perennial flow regimes. Finally, the streams in the three flow regimes were characterized with the mean and standard deviation of the hydrological variables and the shape, slope, and scale of the flow duration curve. Results of this study are the basis for further understanding of the ecohydrological processes of the river basins in Ethiopia.

  19. A Framework to Assess the Cumulative Hydrological Impacts of Dams on flow Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Wang, D.

    2016-12-01

    In this study we proposed a framework to assess the cumulative impact of dams on hydrological regime, and the impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on flow regime in Yangtze River were investigated with the framework. We reconstructed the unregulated flow series to compare with the regulated flow series in the same period. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration parameters were used to examine the hydrological regime change. Among IHA parameters, Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Principal Components Analysis identified the representative indicators of hydrological alterations. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit showed that the reservoir also changed the seasonal regime of the flows in autumn and winter. Annual extreme flows and October flows changes lead to negative ecological implications downstream from the Three Gorges Dam. Ecological operation for the Three Gorges Dam is necessary to mitigate the negative effects on the river ecosystem in the middle reach of Yangtze River. The framework proposed here could be a robust method to assess the cumulative impacts of reservoir operation.

  20. Catastrophic regime shifts in model ecological communities are true phase transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capitán, J A; Cuesta, J A

    2010-01-01

    Ecosystems often undergo abrupt regime shifts in response to gradual external changes. These shifts are theoretically understood as a regime switch between alternative stable states of the ecosystem dynamical response to smooth changes in external conditions. Usual models introduce nonlinearities in the macroscopic dynamics of the ecosystem that lead to different stable attractors among which the shift takes place. Here we propose an alternative explanation of catastrophic regime shifts based on a recent model that pictures ecological communities as systems in continuous fluctuation, according to certain transition probabilities, between different micro-states in the phase space of viable communities. We introduce a spontaneous extinction rate that accounts for gradual changes in external conditions, and upon variations on this control parameter the system undergoes a regime shift with similar features to those previously reported. Under our microscopic viewpoint we recover the main results obtained in previous theoretical and empirical work (anomalous variance, hysteresis cycles, trophic cascades). The model predicts a gradual loss of species in trophic levels from bottom to top near the transition. But more importantly, the spectral analysis of the transition probability matrix allows us to rigorously establish that we are observing the fingerprints, in a finite size system, of a true phase transition driven by background extinctions

  1. Continuous Time Random Walk and different diffusive regimes - doi: 10.4025/actascitechnol.v34i2.11521

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haroldo Valetin Ribeiro

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate how it is possible to obtain different diffusive regimes from the Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW approach performing suitable changes for the waiting time and jumping distributions in order to get two or more regimes for the same diffusive process. We also obtain diffusion-like equations related to these processes and investigate the connection of the results with anomalous diffusion. 

  2. Trade balance instability and the optimal exchange rate regime: The case of OPEC countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aljerrah, M.A.

    1993-01-01

    The OPEC members have experienced wide fluctuations in their trade balances. This can be attributed to several factors: (1) heavy dependence of national income and export earnings on a single primary export-oil; (2) instability of price and world demand for oil; and (3) the exchange rate regime practiced in recent years. An exchange rate policy can be used to minimize the fluctuations in trade balance, given the changes in exchange rates of major international currencies. The purpose of this study is two fold; first, examine the effects of fluctuations in trade balance on the OPEC economies, and second, propose appropriate exchange rate regime for selected OPEC members. The study is divided into two parts. The first part demonstrates the impact of trade balance changes on national income and other macroeconomic variables using a Keynesian framework. The second part involves using conventional trade models to search for the appropriate exchange rate regime to minimize the fluctuations in trade balance of each selective country. The study's findings are: first, fluctuations in trade balances had negative effects on the economics of Algeria, Kuwait, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Second, the current exchange rate regime of no sample country is optimal in minimizing trade balance fluctuations. Third, in contrast to expectations, U.S. dollar peg did not stabilize the trade balance of any OPEC member. Finally, the results show that the sample OPEC economies could have enjoyed faster - though with different degree - economic growth if they had pegged their currencies to the derived optimal exchange rate regime. These optimal exchange rate regimes are: the SDR for Algeria and the United Arab Emirates, the purchasing power parity for Libya and Saudi Arabia, and the real Yen for Kuwait.

  3. Projected Regime Shift in Arctic Cloud and Water Vapor Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yonghua; Miller, James R.; Francis, Jennifer; Russel, Gary L.

    2011-01-01

    The Arctic climate is changing faster than any other large-scale region on Earth. A variety of positive feedback mechanisms are responsible for the amplification, most of which are linked with changes in snow and ice cover, surface temperature (T(sub s)), atmospheric water vapor (WV), and cloud properties. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, air temperature and water vapor content also increase, leading to a warmer surface and ice loss, which further enhance evaporation and WV. Many details of these interrelated feedbacks are poorly understood, yet are essential for understanding the pace and regional variations in future Arctic change. We use a global climate model (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Atmosphere-Ocean Model) to examine several components of these feedbacks, how they vary by season, and how they are projected to change through the 21st century. One positive feedback begins with an increase in T(sub s) that produces an increase in WV, which in turn increases the downward longwave flux (DLF) and T(sub s), leading to further evaporation. Another associates the expected increases in cloud cover and optical thickness with increasing DLF and T(sub s). We examine the sensitivities between DLF and other climate variables in these feedbacks and find that they are strongest in the non-summer seasons, leading to the largest amplification in Ts during these months. Later in the 21st century, however, DLF becomes less sensitive to changes in WV and cloud optical thickness, as they cause the atmosphere to emit longwave radiation more nearly as a black body. This regime shift in sensitivity implies that the amplified pace of Arctic change relative to the northern hemisphere could relax in the future.

  4. Misalignment under different exchange rate regimes: the case of Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Dağdeviren, Sengül; Ogus Binatli, Ayla; Sohrabji, Niloufer

    2011-01-01

    The paper examines misalignment of the Turkish lira between 1998 to 2008. Misalignment, specifically overvaluation has been linked to fixed exchange rate regimes. By studying the case of Turkey during this period which covers both a fixed and floating exchange rate regime, we contribute to the literature on the relation between misalignment and exchange rate regimes. We first estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey, then compute misalignment and finally test for structural brea...

  5. Exchange-rate regimes and economic growth: An empirical evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Simón Sosvilla-Rivero; María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

    2014-01-01

    Based on a dataset of 123 economies, this paper empirically investigates the relation between exchange-rate regimes and economic growth. We find that growth performance is best under intermediate exchange rate regimes, while the smallest growth rates are associated with flexible exchange rates. Nevertheless, this conclusion is tempered when we analyze the countries by income level: even though countries that adopt intermediate exchange-rate regimes are characterized by higher economic growth,...

  6. Effectiveness of Existing International Nuclear Liability Regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Doais, Salwa; Kessel, Daivd

    2015-01-01

    The first convention was the Paris Convention on Third Party Liability in the Field of Nuclear Energy (the Paris Convention) had been adopted on 29 July 1960 under the auspices of the OECD, and entered into force on 1 April 1968. In 1963,the Brussels Convention - supplementary to the Paris Convention- was adopted in to provide additional funds to compensate damage as a result of a nuclear incident where Paris Convention funds proved to be insufficient. The IAEA's first convention was the Vienna Convention on Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage (the Vienna Convention) which adopted on 21 May 1963,and entered into force in 1977. Both the Paris Convention and the Vienna Convention laid down very similar nuclear liability rules based on the same general principles. The broad principles in these conventions can be summarized as follows: 1- The no-fault liability principle (strict liability) 2- Liability is channeled exclusively to the operator of the nuclear installation (legal channeling) 3- Only courts of the state in which the nuclear accident occurs would have jurisdiction (exclusive jurisdiction) 4- Limitation of the amount of liability and the time frame for claiming damages (limited liability) 5- The operator is required to have adequate insurance or financial guarantees to the extent of its liability amount (liability must be financially secured). 6- Liability is limited in time. Compensation rights are extinguished after specific time. 7- Non-discrimination of victims on the grounds of nationality, domicile or residence. Nuclear liability conventions objective is to provide adequate compensation payments to victims of a nuclear accident. Procedures for receiving these compensation are controlled by some rules such as exclusive jurisdiction, that rule need a further amendment to ensure the effectiveness of the exiting nuclear liability regime . Membership of the Conventions is a critical issue, because the existence of the conventions without being party to

  7. Effectiveness of Existing International Nuclear Liability Regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Doais, Salwa; Kessel, Daivd [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The first convention was the Paris Convention on Third Party Liability in the Field of Nuclear Energy (the Paris Convention) had been adopted on 29 July 1960 under the auspices of the OECD, and entered into force on 1 April 1968. In 1963,the Brussels Convention - supplementary to the Paris Convention- was adopted in to provide additional funds to compensate damage as a result of a nuclear incident where Paris Convention funds proved to be insufficient. The IAEA's first convention was the Vienna Convention on Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage (the Vienna Convention) which adopted on 21 May 1963,and entered into force in 1977. Both the Paris Convention and the Vienna Convention laid down very similar nuclear liability rules based on the same general principles. The broad principles in these conventions can be summarized as follows: 1- The no-fault liability principle (strict liability) 2- Liability is channeled exclusively to the operator of the nuclear installation (legal channeling) 3- Only courts of the state in which the nuclear accident occurs would have jurisdiction (exclusive jurisdiction) 4- Limitation of the amount of liability and the time frame for claiming damages (limited liability) 5- The operator is required to have adequate insurance or financial guarantees to the extent of its liability amount (liability must be financially secured). 6- Liability is limited in time. Compensation rights are extinguished after specific time. 7- Non-discrimination of victims on the grounds of nationality, domicile or residence. Nuclear liability conventions objective is to provide adequate compensation payments to victims of a nuclear accident. Procedures for receiving these compensation are controlled by some rules such as exclusive jurisdiction, that rule need a further amendment to ensure the effectiveness of the exiting nuclear liability regime . Membership of the Conventions is a critical issue, because the existence of the conventions without being party to

  8. Experimental study of steam condensation regime map for simplified spargers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Y. S.; Yoon, Y. J.; Song, C. H.; Park, C. K.; Kang, H. S.; Jun, H. K.

    2003-01-01

    An experimental study was conducted to produce a condensation regime map for single-hole and 4-hole steam spargers using GIRLS facility. The regime map for a single-hole sparger was derived using parameters such as the frequency and magnitude of the dynamic pressure. For 4-hole sparager, the regime map was derived using the trends of sound and dynamic pressure. Using the single-hole and 4-hole data, a steam jet condensation regime map was suggested with respect to pool temperature and steam mass flux

  9. Institutional design and regime effectiveness in transboundary river management – the Elbe water quality regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Dombrowsky

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The literature on transboundary river management suggests that institutions play an important role in bringing about cooperation. However, knowledge about how such institutions should be designed in order to do so remains limited. One way to learn more about adequate institutional design is to assess the effectiveness of existing regimes, and to trace the causal relationships that lead to the respective outcomes. In order to gain further insights into the relationship between institutional design and regime effectiveness, this paper presents a study on the water quality regime of the International Commission for the Protection of the Elbe (ICPE. The analysis is based on a review of pertinent documents and ten qualitative interviews with Czech and German Commission members and NGO representatives. Particular emphasis has been put on determining the ICPE's specific contribution and the no-regime counterfactual as well as on the perceived expediency of the institutional arrangements. The study shows overall that the countries were relatively successful in improving water quality in the Elbe basin. However, this outcome can only partly be attributed to the ICPE itself. Furthermore, the ICPE's contribution towards achieving the various goals varied significantly between the different areas of activity: it was relatively significant where the main responsibility for action lay with the public authorities, such as in the area of wastewater treatment and the establishment of an international alarm plan and model, but was practically non-existent in the reduction of non-point pollution from agriculture, where success depended on the behavior of individual private actors (farmers. The commission contributed towards problem solving by serving as a forum for the joint identification of priorities for action from a basin-wide perspective. The resulting international obligations increased the power of national water administrations and their access to funds

  10. Are Some Technologies Beyond Regulatory Regimes?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Wendell B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kusnezov, Dimitri [National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Washington, DC (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Regulatory frameworks are a common tool in governance to incent and coerce behaviors supporting national or strategic stability. This includes domestic regulations and international agreements. Though regulation is always a challenge, the domain of fast evolving threats, like cyber, are proving much more difficult to control. Many discussions are underway searching for approaches that can provide national security in these domains. We use game theoretic learning models to explore the question of strategic stability with respect to the democratization of certain technologies (such as cyber). We suggest that such many-player games could inherently be chaotic with no corresponding (Nash) equilibria. In the absence of such equilibria, traditional approaches, as measures to achieve levels of overall security, may not be suitable approaches to support strategic stability in these domains. Altogether new paradigms may be needed for these issues. At the very least, regulatory regimes that fail to address the basic nature of the technology domains should not be pursued as a default solution, regardless of success in other domains. In addition, the very chaotic nature of these domains may hold the promise of novel approaches to regulation.

  11. Flow regimes in a trapped vortex cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasagna, D.; Iuso, G.

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents results of an experimental investigation on the flow in a trapped vortex cell, embedded into a flat plate, and interacting with a zero-pressure-gradient boundary layer. The objective of the work is to describe the flow features and elucidate some of the governing physical mechanisms, in the light of recent investigations on flow separation control using vortex cells. Hot-wire velocity measurements of the shear layer bounding the cell and of the boundary layers upstream and downstream are reported, together with spectral and correlation analyses of wall-pressure fluctuation measurements. Smoke flow visualisations provide qualitative insight into some relevant features of the internal flow, namely a large-scale flow unsteadiness and possible mechanisms driving the rotation of the vortex core. Results are presented for two very different regimes: a low-Reynolds-number case where the incoming boundary layer is laminar and its momentum thickness is small compared to the cell opening, and a moderately high-Reynolds-number case, where the incoming boundary layer is turbulent and the ratio between the momentum thickness and the opening length is significantly larger than in the first case. Implications of the present findings to flow control applications of trapped vortex cells are also discussed.

  12. Legal regime of water management facilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salma Jožef

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the legal regime of water management facilities in the light of Serbian, foreign and European law. Different divisions of water management facilities are carried out (to public and private ones, natural and artificial ones, etc., with determination of their legal relevance. Account is taken of the issue of protection from harmful effects of waters to such facilities, as well. The paper points also to rules on the water management facilities, from acts of planning, to individual administrative acts and measures for maintenance of required qualitative and quantitative condition of waters, depending on their purpose (general use or special, commercial use o waters. Albeit special rules on water management facilities exist, due to the natural interlocking between all the components of the environment (water, air and soil, a comprehensive approach is required. A reference is made to other basic principles of protection of water management facilities as well, such as the principle of prevention, principle of sustainable development and the principle "polluter pays". The last one represents the achievement of contemporary law, which deviates from the idea accepted in the second half of 20th century that supported the socialization of risk from harmful effects of waters.

  13. Electricity transport regimes: their impact on cogeneration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cotard, Erwan [COGEN, Europe (Belgium)

    2000-12-01

    In many cases the main product of cogeneration is heat and the surplus electricity is sold to the grid. However, the economics of cogeneration can be influenced by transport networks (transmission and distribution): the structure of network pricing is relatively new. In a recent note from COGEN Europe it was recommended that cogenerators who use only the local distribution system should not pay for the transmission system and that tariffs should be structured in sufficient detail for the advantages of decentralisation to be realised. The article is presented under the sub-headings of (i) why is this important? (the omission of the transmission element reduces the overall price of cogeneration); (ii) the advantages of decentralised cogeneration; (iv) the theory - the different systems (the European Directive on electricity market liberalization); (v) the options for transport fees; (vi) current regimes in some EU states (vii) the case of transborder transport; impact of each system on cogeneration; recommendations to policymakers; (viii) the Netherlands and (ix) the UK.

  14. On the ontological emergence from quantum regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luty, Damian [Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan (Poland)

    2014-07-01

    There are several views on the relation between quantum physics and theory of relativity (especially General Relativity, GR). A popular perspective is this: GR with its macroscopic gravitational effects will turn out to be a limit of a more fundamental theory which should consider discrete physics and not deal with continuity (like theory of relativity). Thus, GR will emerge from a more basic theory, which should be quantum-like. One could call this an epistemic emergence view towards fundamental theories. The question is, given that scientific realism is valid: should emergence be a fundamental notion in our ontological view about the evolving, physical Universe? Is there an ontological emergence fully compatible with the notion of fundamentality? I argue that if we want to defend ontological emergence (from quantum to macroscopic regime) as something fundamental, we will arrive at the position of metaphysics of dispositions (and I argue, why this is undesirable), or conclude, that we cannot square fully fundamental ontology with the notion of emergence, and that we have to accept an ontological pluralism relativised to a certain scale. I defend the latter proposition, showing, that epistemic emergence doesn't entail (logically) ontological emergence.

  15. On spinfoam models in large spin regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Muxin

    2014-01-01

    We study the semiclassical behavior of Lorentzian Engle–Pereira–Rovelli–Livine (EPRL) spinfoam model, by taking into account the sum over spins in the large spin regime. We also employ the method of stationary phase analysis with parameters and the so-called, almost analytic machinery, in order to find the asymptotic behavior of the contributions from all possible large spin configurations in the spinfoam model. The spins contributing the sum are written as J f = λj f , where λ is a large parameter resulting in an asymptotic expansion via stationary phase approximation. The analysis shows that at least for the simplicial Lorentzian geometries (as spinfoam critical configurations), they contribute the leading order approximation of spinfoam amplitude only when their deficit angles satisfy γ Θ-ring f ≤λ −1/2 mod 4πZ. Our analysis results in a curvature expansion of the semiclassical low energy effective action from the spinfoam model, where the UV modifications of Einstein gravity appear as subleading high-curvature corrections. (paper)

  16. Understanding energy-related regimes: A participatory approach from central Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foran, Tira; Fleming, David; Spandonide, Bruno; Williams, Rachel; Race, Digby

    2016-01-01

    For a particular community, what energy-related innovations constitute no-regrets strategies? We present a methodology to understand how alternative energy consuming activities and policy regimes impact on current and future liveability of socio-culturally diverse communities facing climate change. Our methodology augments the energy policy literature by harnessing three concepts (collaborative governance, innovation and political economic regime of provisioning) to support dialogue around changing energy-related activities. We convened workshops in Alice Springs, Australia to build capability to identify no-regrets energy-related housing or transport activities and strategies. In preparation, we interviewed policy actors and constructed three new housing-related future scenarios. After discussing the scenarios, policy and research actors prioritised five socio-technical activities or strategies. Evaluations indicate participants enjoyed opportunities given by the methodology to have focussed discussions about activities and innovation, while requesting more socially nuanced scenario storylines. We discuss implications for theory and technique development. - Highlights: •Energy-related activities and regimes frustrate pro-sustainability action. •Participatory workshops increased understanding of activities and regimes. •Workshops used a novel combination of governance and social theories. •Results justify inclusive dialogue around building energy standards and transport options.

  17. Assessment of hydrological regimes for vegetation on riparian wetlands in Han River Basin, Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaewon Kwak

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological regimes are regarded as one of the major determinants for wetland ecosystems, for they influence species composition, succession, productivity, and stability of vegetation communities. Since Korea launched the Four Major River Restoration Project in 2007, the water regimes of many of the riparian wetlands have changed, that is potentially affecting vegetation properties. For ecological conservation and management, it is important to connect hydrological characteristics and vegetation properties. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of hydrological regimes on vegetation community, and develop a methodology that can connect them. Inundated exceedance probability (IEP and its district concept are suggested to gain insights into hydrological regimes on the Binae wetland that is rehabilitated by the Restoration Project in 2012 and belong to the riparian zone. Results of this study indicate that the areas with P = 0.08 or lower IEPs should have the disturbance for vegetation communities, or could be changed to a hydrophilic vegetation in the study area, and it should be considered in the restoration and rehabilitation project to conserve legally protected or endangered vegetation.

  18. Discharge regimes and density jumps in a helicon plasma source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinohara, S.; Yonekura, K.

    1999-01-01

    A high density plasma source using a helicon wave is becoming very attractive in plasma processing and confinement devices. In the previous work, the characteristics of this wave and plasma performance with diameters of 5 and 45 cm have been studied, and the helicon wave was only observed after the density jump. Recently, density jumps from the low to high electron densities with a level of 10 13 cm -3 were investigated by changing the antenna wavenumber spectrum, and the obtained results were compared with the inductively coupled plasma (ICP). However, the mechanisms of density jumps and plasma production are still open questions to be answered. Here, the authors try to investigate the discharge regimes and density jumps in a helicon plasma source, by changing the antenna wavenumber spectrum. For he case of the parallel current directions in the antenna, where the low wavenumber spectrum part is large, the density jump was observed with the low RF input power of P in < 300 W regardless of the magnetic field. On the other hand, for the case of the opposite directions, where the low wavenumber spectrum part is small, the threshold power to obtain the jump became high with the increase in the magnetic field. This can be understood from the dispersion relation of the helicon wave. The wave structures and the dispersion relations in the discharge modes will be also shown

  19. Nova Scotia's new gas distribution regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacIsaac, J.B. [Cox Hanson O' Reilly Matheson, Halifax, NS (Canada)

    2002-07-01

    The most recent amendments to Nova Scotia's gas distribution regime were described in detail. The amended legislation includes: (1) elimination of mandatory service targets, (2) franchise terms of 25 years, (3) a 10 year prohibition on industrial by-pass, (4) gas sales licenses are now required to market gas in Nova Scotia, (5) distributors can offer bundled services, (6) the elimination of province wide uniform tolls for low volume customers, (7) public utilities are permitted to apply for a distribution franchise and to market natural gas, (8) ex-party filing of interim rates, (9) the Pipeline Act applies to the construction of gas distribution systems, (10) socio-economic studies are required for parties seeking a single-end user franchise outside a franchise area, and (11) regulations for underground gas storage have been removed from the legislation. It was noted that these significant changes to the statutory framework of Nova Scotia's delivery of natural gas are sending encouraging signals to parties considering investing in the distribution network in the province. It was also noted, that as in any industry, success of natural gas distribution in Nova Scotia will depend on economics and not on structural changes. 66 refs.

  20. Quantum plug n’ play: modular computation in the quantum regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Jayne; Modi, Kavan; Vedral, Vlatko; Gu, Mile

    2018-01-01

    Classical computation is modular. It exploits plug n’ play architectures which allow us to use pre-fabricated circuits without knowing their construction. This bestows advantages such as allowing parts of the computational process to be outsourced, and permitting individual circuit components to be exchanged and upgraded. Here, we introduce a formal framework to describe modularity in the quantum regime. We demonstrate a ‘no-go’ theorem, stipulating that it is not always possible to make use of quantum circuits without knowing their construction. This has significant consequences for quantum algorithms, forcing the circuit implementation of certain quantum algorithms to be rebuilt almost entirely from scratch after incremental changes in the problem—such as changing the number being factored in Shor’s algorithm. We develop a workaround capable of restoring modularity, and apply it to design a modular version of Shor’s algorithm that exhibits increased versatility and reduced complexity. In doing so we pave the way to a realistic framework whereby ‘quantum chips’ and remote servers can be invoked (or assembled) to implement various parts of a more complex quantum computation.