Cultural inter-population differences do not reflect biological distances: an example of interdisciplinary analysis of populations from Eastern Adriatic coast.

Science.gov (United States)

Bašić, Željana; Fox, Ayano R; Anterić, Ivana; Jerković, Ivan; Polašek, Ozren; Anđelinović, Šimun; Holland, Mitchell M; Primorac, Dragan

2015-06-01

To compare the population group from the Šopot graveyard with population groups from traditional Croatian medieval graveyards by using anthropological, craniometrics, and mitochondrial (mtDNA) analysis and to examine if the cultural differences between population groups reflect biological differences. We determined sex, age at death, pathological, and traumatic changes of skeletal remains from the Šopot graveyard and compared them with a cumulative medieval sample from the same region. We also performed principal component analysis to compare skeletal remains from Šopot with those from Ostrovica and other Central European samples according to 8 cranial measurements. Finally, we compared 46 skeletons from Šopot with medieval (Ostrovica) and contemporary populations using mDNA haplogroup profiling. The remains from Šopot were similar to the cumulative sample in lifestyle and quality of life markers. Principal component analysis showed that they were closely related to Eastern Adriatic coast sites (including Ostrovica and Šopot) in terms of cranial morphology, indicating similar biological makeup. According to mDNA testing, Šopot population showed no significant differences in the haplogroup prevalence from either medieval or contemporary populations. This study shows that the Šopot population does not significantly differ from other medieval populations from this area. Besides similar quality of life markers, these populations also had similar biological markers. Substantial archeological differences can therefore be attributed to apparent cultural influences, which in this case do not reflect biological differences.

An economic assessment of population health risk in region

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Nina Vladimirovna Zaytseva

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a method of economic assessment of population health risk as a tool of life qualitymanagement and qualityof labor resources in the region (as factors of a region’s economic security. The technique is based on the cost of reducing the period of disability in the implementation of population health risk and takes into account the effects of risk prevention on levels of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation. The method intends to support making decisions on planning measures to reduce population health risk at the level of regions, territories and separate objects to assess their cost-performance, optimization of investment and operating costs to reduce the population health risk and sustainable development of the territory

Population information on major technological risks and specially on nuclear risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Choudens, H.

1992-01-01

Following Chernobyl accident which has revealed in France a strong need for information on technological risks among population and a lack in its organization, the Mayor of Grenoble City who was also at this time, Environment Minister in French Government had initiated in lsere Region an important operation of consideration of action, which has to been undertaken to correct theses lacks. Among ten actions retained one of them was the creation of an Association for Information of the public for Prevention of major risks. This Association has first initiated a consultation on the perception by the population of the different major risks (Industrial and Naturals) in view of the results of this consultation, Medical Professions were the first concerned and a publication 'Medicine and Nuclear risk' has been elaborated and distributed to all doctors of the Region. A Memento on Nuclear risk as then been written and largely distributed in the region, especially in the medias. A booklet on nuclear risk and behavior in case of nuclear accident has then been realized and distributed to all people around Electronuclear Reactors of the Region and to children in the schools. In complement, public meetings have been organized in these sectors to inform, and discuss with the population. (author)

Suicide risk among homeless population

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Fran Calvo-García

2016-06-01

Full Text Available There exists little scientific production on autolytic behaviour in homeless people, despite the fact that it is one of the groups that is more at risk. The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence of previous attempted suicide and suicide risk and its connection with the main risk factors. In order to do so, central tendency and dispersion measures, correlations, contingence tables, and average comparison tables according to type of variable and normality were used. The Plutchik suicide-risk test was used in order to determine the risk of suicide, and specific tests for the main risk factors analysed. The main results show a 24.7% suicide rate and 45.2% (n = 66 displayed suicide risk. The main predictive factor of the risk of suicide was the daily consumption of alcohol (OR = 1.011, p less than .001, followed by being a woman (OR = 1.381, p = .021. It is necessary to design and apply suicide prevention strategies for this population.

Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

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Pere P Simarro

Full Text Available Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population.Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported.Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

Ultraviolet reflection enhances the risk of predation in a vertebrate

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Ricarda MODARRESSIE, Ingolf P. RICK, Theo C. M. BAKKER

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Many animals are sensitive to ultraviolet light and also possess UV-reflective regions on their body surface. Individuals reflecting UV have been shown to be preferred during social interactions such as mate choice or shoaling decisions. However, whether those body UV-reflections enhance also the conspicuousness to UV-sensitive predators and therefore entail costs for its bearer is less well documented. Two size-matched three-spined sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus, one enclosed in a UV-transmitting (UV+ and another in a UV-blocking (UV- chamber, were simultaneously presented to individual brown trout Salmo trutta. “yearlings”. Brown trout of this age are sensitive to the UV part of the electromagnetic spectrum and are natural predators of three-spined sticklebacks. The stickleback that was attacked first as well as the subsequent number of attacks was recorded. Sticklebacks enclosed in the UV-transmitting chamber were attacked first significantly more often compared to sticklebacks enclosed in the UV-blocking chamber. Control experiments using neutral density filters revealed that this was more likely due to UV having an influence on hue perception rather than brightness discrimination. The difference in attack probability corresponded to the difference in chromatic contrasts between sticklebacks and the experimental background calculated for both the UV+ and UV- conditions in a physiological model of trout colour vision. UV reflections seem to be costly by enhancing the risk of predation due to an increased conspicuousness of prey. This is the first study in a vertebrate, to our knowledge, demonstrating direct predation risk due to UV wavelengths [Current Zoology 59 (2: 151-159, 2013].

Status of Baltic grey seals: Population assessment and extinction risk

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Karin C Harding

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The grey seal (Halichoerus grypus population in the Baltic Sea is recovering after a century of bounty hunting and 3 decades of low fertility rates caused by environmental pollution. A conservative estimate of the population size in 2003 was 19,400 animals, and available data suggest an annual rate of increase of 7.5% since 1990. The growing population has led to increased interactions with the fishery, and demands are being raised for the re-introduction of the hunt. We provide a demographic analysis and a risk assessment of the population, and make recommendations on how to decrease the risk of over exploitation. Although hunting increases the risk of quasi-extinction, the risk can be significantly reduced by the choice of a cautious hunting regime. The least hazardous regimes allow no hunting below a ‘security level’ in population size. Obviously, to implement such a hunting regime detailed knowledge of the population size and growth rate is required. It is not possible to estimate “true” risks for quasi-extinction, but we used an approach where the relative difference for different scenarios can be compared. With a security level at 5,000 females, the population quasi-extinction risk increases 50 fold at an annual hunt of 500 females compared with a scenario with no hunting. The risk of quasi-extinction is very sensitive to declines in the mean growth rate and to increased variance in growth rate. The variance in the population estimates over the last 14 years imply that it would take 9 years to detect a declinefrom 1.075 to 1.027 in the rate of population increase. We also show how the age composition of killed animals influences the impact of the hunt. The overall recommendation is that hunting should be kept to a minimum, carefully documented and accompanied by close population monitoring.

International funding for malaria control in relation to populations at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum transmission.

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Robert W Snow

2008-07-01

Full Text Available The international financing of malaria control has increased significantly in the last ten years in parallel with calls to halve the malaria burden by the year 2015. The allocation of funds to countries should reflect the size of the populations at risk of infection, disease, and death. To examine this relationship, we compare an audit of international commitments with an objective assessment of national need: the population at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in 2007.The national distributions of populations at risk of stable P. falciparum transmission were projected to the year 2007 for each of 87 P. falciparum-endemic countries. Systematic online- and literature-based searches were conducted to audit the international funding commitments made for malaria control by major donors between 2002 and 2007. These figures were used to generate annual malaria funding allocation (in US dollars per capita population at risk of stable P. falciparum in 2007. Almost US$1 billion are distributed each year to the 1.4 billion people exposed to stable P. falciparum malaria risk. This is less than US$1 per person at risk per year. Forty percent of this total comes from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Substantial regional and national variations in disbursements exist. While the distribution of funds is found to be broadly appropriate, specific high population density countries receive disproportionately less support to scale up malaria control. Additionally, an inadequacy of current financial commitments by the international community was found: under-funding could be from 50% to 450%, depending on which global assessment of the cost required to scale up malaria control is adopted.Without further increases in funding and appropriate targeting of global malaria control investment it is unlikely that international goals to halve disease burdens by 2015 will be achieved. Moreover, the additional financing

Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

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Rosa Björk Thorolfsdottir

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25-74. Calculations were based on combining: i data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland, ii population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study, and iii effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses. Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: (1 If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. (2 If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3 Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. CONCLUSIONS: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future.

Population-Attributable Risk Percentages for Racialized Risk Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Arriola, Kimberly Jacob; Haardörfer, Regine; McBride, Colleen M.

2016-01-01

Research about relationships between place characteristics and racial/ethnic inequities in health has largely ignored conceptual advances about race and place within the discipline of geography. Research has also almost exclusively quantified these relationships using effect estimates (e.g., odds ratios), statistics that fail to adequately capture the full impact of place characteristics on inequities and thus undermine our ability to translate research into action. We draw on geography to further develop the concept of “racialized risk environments,” and we argue for the routine calculation of race/ethnicity-specific population-attributable risk percentages. PMID:27552263

Fine-Scale Human Population Structure in Southern Africa Reflects Ecogeographic Boundaries.

Science.gov (United States)

Uren, Caitlin; Kim, Minju; Martin, Alicia R; Bobo, Dean; Gignoux, Christopher R; van Helden, Paul D; Möller, Marlo; Hoal, Eileen G; Henn, Brenna M

2016-09-01

Recent genetic studies have established that the KhoeSan populations of southern Africa are distinct from all other African populations and have remained largely isolated during human prehistory until ∼2000 years ago. Dozens of different KhoeSan groups exist, belonging to three different language families, but very little is known about their population history. We examine new genome-wide polymorphism data and whole mitochondrial genomes for >100 South Africans from the ≠Khomani San and Nama populations of the Northern Cape, analyzed in conjunction with 19 additional southern African populations. Our analyses reveal fine-scale population structure in and around the Kalahari Desert. Surprisingly, this structure does not always correspond to linguistic or subsistence categories as previously suggested, but rather reflects the role of geographic barriers and the ecology of the greater Kalahari Basin. Regardless of subsistence strategy, the indigenous Khoe-speaking Nama pastoralists and the N|u-speaking ≠Khomani (formerly hunter-gatherers) share ancestry with other Khoe-speaking forager populations that form a rim around the Kalahari Desert. We reconstruct earlier migration patterns and estimate that the southern Kalahari populations were among the last to experience gene flow from Bantu speakers, ∼14 generations ago. We conclude that local adoption of pastoralism, at least by the Nama, appears to have been primarily a cultural process with limited genetic impact from eastern Africa. Copyright © 2016 by the Genetics Society of America.

Suicide Risk Screening Tools and the Youth Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Patterson, Sharon

2016-08-01

The use of suicide risk screening tools is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to suicide risk assessment. Since nurses frequently spend more time with patients than any other healthcare professional, they are in key positions to detect and prevent suicidal behavior in youth. To inform nurses about suicide risk screening tools for the youth population. Suicide risk screening tools are research-based standardized instruments that are used to identify people who may be at risk for suicide. A literature search was performed using the Athabasca University Library Resource, the databases of the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar. Nurses are cautioned to utilize suicide risk screening tools as only part of the suicide risk assessment in youth populations and avoid the danger of relying on tools that may result in a blind application of evidence to the detriment of clinical experience and judgement. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Assessing uncertainty and risk in exploited marine populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fogarty, M.J.; Mayo, R.K.; O'Brien, L.; Serchuk, F.M.; Rosenberg, A.A.

1996-01-01

The assessment and management of exploited fish and invertebrate populations is subject to several types of uncertainty. This uncertainty translates into risk to the population in the development and implementation of fishery management advice. Here, we define risk as the probability that exploitation rates will exceed a threshold level where long term sustainability of the stock is threatened. We distinguish among several sources of error or uncertainty due to (a) stochasticity in demographic rates and processes, particularly in survival rates during the early fife stages; (b) measurement error resulting from sampling variation in the determination of population parameters or in model estimation; and (c) the lack of complete information on population and ecosystem dynamics. The first represents a form of aleatory uncertainty while the latter two factors represent forms of epistemic uncertainty. To illustrate these points, we evaluate the recent status of the Georges Bank cod stock in a risk assessment framework. Short term stochastic projections are made accounting for uncertainty in population size and for random variability in the number of young surviving to enter the fishery. We show that recent declines in this cod stock can be attributed to exploitation rates that have substantially exceeded sustainable levels

When perception reflects reality: Non-native grass invasion alters small mammal risk landscapes and survival

Science.gov (United States)

Ceradnini, Joseph P.; Chalfoun, Anna

2017-01-01

Modification of habitat structure due to invasive plants can alter the risk landscape for wildlife by, for example, changing the quality or availability of refuge habitat. Whether perceived risk corresponds with actual fitness outcomes, however, remains an important open question. We simultaneously measured how habitat changes due to a common invasive grass (cheatgrass, Bromus tectorum) affected the perceived risk, habitat selection, and apparent survival of a small mammal, enabling us to assess how well perceived risk influenced important behaviors and reflected actual risk. We measured perceived risk by nocturnal rodents using a giving-up density foraging experiment with paired shrub (safe) and open (risky) foraging trays in cheatgrass and native habitats. We also evaluated microhabitat selection across a cheatgrass gradient as an additional assay of perceived risk and behavioral responses for deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) at two spatial scales of habitat availability. Finally, we used mark-recapture analysis to quantify deer mouse apparent survival across a cheatgrass gradient while accounting for detection probability and other habitat features. In the foraging experiment, shrubs were more important as protective cover in cheatgrass-dominated habitats, suggesting that cheatgrass increased perceived predation risk. Additionally, deer mice avoided cheatgrass and selected shrubs, and marginally avoided native grass, at two spatial scales. Deer mouse apparent survival varied with a cheatgrass–shrub interaction, corresponding with our foraging experiment results, and providing a rare example of a native plant mediating the effects of an invasive plant on wildlife. By synthesizing the results of three individual lines of evidence (foraging behavior, habitat selection, and apparent survival), we provide a rare example of linkage between behavioral responses of animals indicative of perceived predation risk and actual fitness outcomes. Moreover, our results

Radiation exposure and radiation risk of the population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacobi, W.; Paretzke, H.G.; Ehling, U.H.

1981-02-01

The major scientifically founded results concerning the assessment of the radiation exposure and the analysis and evaluation of the radiationhazards for the population, particularly in the range of low doses, are presented. As to the risk analysis special attention is paid to the rays with low ionization density (X-, γ-, β- and electronrays). Contents: 1) Detailed survey of the results and conclusions; 2) Data on the radiation load of the population; 3) Results to epidemiological questioning on the risk of cancer; 4) Genetical radiation hazards of the population. For quantification purposes of the risk of cancer by γ-radiation the observations with the a-bomb survivors in Japan are taken as a basis, as the available dosimetrical data have to be revised. Appendices: 1) German translation of the UNSCEAR-Report (1977); 2) BEIR-Report (1980); 3) Comments from the SSK on the comparability of the risks of natural-artificial radiation exposure; 4) Comments from the SSK on the importance of synergistical influences for the radiation protection (23.9.1977). (HP) [de

Projection of radiation-induced cancer risks across time and populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muirhead, C.R.

1991-01-01

Various methods can be used to project the risks of radiation-induced cancer estimated in cohort studies beyond the period of follow-up and to other populations. The choice of risk projection model is reviewed based on data from studies such as those of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and UK ankylosing spondylitis patients given X ray therapy. Risk estimates applicable to a UK population are calculated on the basis of various models, including those developed by the BEIR V Committee. It is emphasised that the continued follow-up of populations such as the Japanese atomic bomb survivors is of great importance in estimating lifetime risks. (author)

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

Science.gov (United States)

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Natriuretic peptides: prediction of cardiovascular disease in the general population and high risk populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hildebrandt, Per

2009-01-01

(General Practitioner) setting as in the acute setting. Supporting this use is a very strong prognostic value of the natriuretic peptides. This has been shown in as well heart failure as acute coronary syndromes, but also in the general population and in high-risk groups as patients with diabetes......, hypertension and coronary artery disease. This has of course raised interest for the use of the natriuretic peptides as a risk marker and for screening for heart failure with reduced systolic function in these populations. In symptomatic persons and in high risk populations, the natriuretic peptides have...... demonstrated a high sensitivity for ruling out the disease, if the right decision limits are choosen. Thus the number of normal echocardiographies can be reduced. More recently, the use in screening asymptomatic persons for left ventricular systolic dysfunction has gained more interest. In the unselected...

RISKAP, Risk Assessment of Radiation Exposure for Population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: RISKAP estimates risk to a population exposed to radioactivity. Risk is measured in terms of the expected number of premature deaths resulting from radiogenic cancers, the number of years of life lost as a result of these deaths, and the average number of years of life lost per premature death. RISKAP accommodates latency and plateau periods that vary with age at exposure and risk functions that vary with age at exposure as well as time after exposure. 2 - Method of solution: The user defines a population by specifying its size and age distribution at reference time zero, its subsequent age-specific mortality rates assuming no radiogenic deaths, and its subsequent birth rates. Radiation doses that may vary with age and time are also assigned by the user. These doses are used to compute an annual, age-specific risk of premature cancer death, based on a dose-response function selected by the user. Calculations of premature radiation deaths, deaths from all causes, and new age distribution of the population are performed for one-year intervals. The population is tracked over any specified period. This version of RISKAP allows the use of a linear, quadratic, or linear-quadratic dose-response function. The user may substitute any preferred dose-response function by editing the code. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: None noted

Population impact of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Holger J; Nielsen, Philip R; Pedersen, Carsten B

2014-01-01

Although several studies have examined the relative contributions of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia, few have additionally examined the predictive power on the individual level and simultaneously examined the population impact associated with a wide range of familial...... 4.50-5.31). The study showed that risk factors with highest predictive power on the individual level have a relatively low population impact. The challenge in future studies with direct genetic data is to examine gene-environmental interactions that can move research beyond current approaches...... and environmental risk factors. The authors present rate ratios (IRR), population-attributable risks (PAR) and sex-specific cumulative incidences of the following risk factors: parental history of mental illness, urban place of birth, advanced paternal age, parental loss and immigration status. We established...

Predictive value of updating Framingham risk scores with novel risk markers in the U.S. general population.

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Bart S Ferket

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS, carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT, high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP, and ankle-brachial index (ABI are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Their impact in the U.S. general population is however uncertain. Our aim was to estimate the predictive value of four novel cardiovascular risk markers for the U.S. general population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Risk profiles, CRP and ABI data of 3,736 asymptomatic subjects aged 40 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2003-2004 exam were used along with predicted CTCS and cIMT values. For each subject, we calculated 10-year cardiovascular risks with and without each risk marker. Event rates adjusted for competing risks were obtained by microsimulation. We assessed the impact of updated 10-year risk scores by reclassification and C-statistics. In the study population (mean age 56±11 years, 48% male, 70% (80% were at low (<10%, 19% (14% at intermediate (≥10-<20%, and 11% (6% at high (≥20% 10-year CVD (CHD risk. Net reclassification improvement was highest after updating 10-year CVD risk with CTCS: 0.10 (95%CI 0.02-0.19. The C-statistic for 10-year CVD risk increased from 0.82 by 0.02 (95%CI 0.01-0.03 with CTCS. Reclassification occurred most often in those at intermediate risk: with CTCS, 36% (38% moved to low and 22% (30% to high CVD (CHD risk. Improvements with other novel risk markers were limited. CONCLUSIONS: Only CTCS appeared to have significant incremental predictive value in the U.S. general population, especially in those at intermediate risk. In future research, cost-effectiveness analyses should be considered for evaluating novel cardiovascular risk assessment strategies.

Predictive Value of Updating Framingham Risk Scores with Novel Risk Markers in the U.S. General Population

Science.gov (United States)

Hunink, M. G. Myriam; Agarwal, Isha; Kavousi, Maryam; Franco, Oscar H.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Max, Wendy; Fleischmann, Kirsten E.

2014-01-01

Background According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP), and ankle-brachial index (ABI) are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Their impact in the U.S. general population is however uncertain. Our aim was to estimate the predictive value of four novel cardiovascular risk markers for the U.S. general population. Methods and Findings Risk profiles, CRP and ABI data of 3,736 asymptomatic subjects aged 40 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003–2004 exam were used along with predicted CTCS and cIMT values. For each subject, we calculated 10-year cardiovascular risks with and without each risk marker. Event rates adjusted for competing risks were obtained by microsimulation. We assessed the impact of updated 10-year risk scores by reclassification and C-statistics. In the study population (mean age 56±11 years, 48% male), 70% (80%) were at low (risk. Net reclassification improvement was highest after updating 10-year CVD risk with CTCS: 0.10 (95%CI 0.02–0.19). The C-statistic for 10-year CVD risk increased from 0.82 by 0.02 (95%CI 0.01–0.03) with CTCS. Reclassification occurred most often in those at intermediate risk: with CTCS, 36% (38%) moved to low and 22% (30%) to high CVD (CHD) risk. Improvements with other novel risk markers were limited. Conclusions Only CTCS appeared to have significant incremental predictive value in the U.S. general population, especially in those at intermediate risk. In future research, cost-effectiveness analyses should be considered for evaluating novel cardiovascular risk assessment strategies. PMID:24558385

Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

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Peter S Rand

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN. The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5% are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67% and found that 17 of these (27% are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.

Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study.

Science.gov (United States)

Orozco-Beltran, Domingo; Gil-Guillen, Vicente F; Redon, Josep; Martin-Moreno, Jose M; Pallares-Carratala, Vicente; Navarro-Perez, Jorge; Valls-Roca, Francisco; Sanchis-Domenech, Carlos; Fernandez-Gimenez, Antonio; Perez-Navarro, Ana; Bertomeu-Martinez, Vicente; Bertomeu-Gonzalez, Vicente; Cordero, Alberto; Pascual de la Torre, Manuel; Trillo, Jose L; Carratala-Munuera, Concepcion; Pita-Fernandez, Salvador; Uso, Ruth; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon; Cooper, Richard; Sanz, Gines; Castellano, Jose M; Ascaso, Juan F; Carmena, Rafael; Tellez-Plaza, Maria

2017-01-01

The potential impact of targeting different components of an adverse lipid profile in populations with multiple cardiovascular risk factors is not completely clear. This study aims to assess the association between different components of the standard lipid profile with all-cause mortality and hospitalization due to cardiovascular events in a high-risk population. This prospective registry included high risk adults over 30 years old free of cardiovascular disease (2008-2012). Diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia or diabetes mellitus was inclusion criterion. Lipid biomarkers were evaluated. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and hospital admission due to coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated adjusted rate ratios (aRR), absolute risk differences and population attributable risk associated with adverse lipid profiles. 51,462 subjects were included with a mean age of 62.6 years (47.6% men). During an average follow-up of 3.2 years, 919 deaths, 1666 hospitalizations for coronary heart disease and 1510 hospitalizations for stroke were recorded. The parameters that showed an increased rate for total mortality, coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalization were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.25, 1.29 and 1.23; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.22, 1.38 and 1.25; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.21, 1.30, 1.09. The parameters that showed highest population attributable risk (%) were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: 7.70, 11.42, 8.40; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: 6.55, 12.47, 8.73; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: 8.94, 15.09, 6.92. In a population with cardiovascular risk factors, HDL-cholesterol, Total/HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratios were associated with a higher population attributable risk for cardiovascular disease compared to other common biomarkers.

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

Science.gov (United States)

Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.; Pleasants, John M.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Taylor, Orley R.

2016-01-01

The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

Identifying populations at risk from environmental contamination from point sources

OpenAIRE

Williams, F; Ogston, S

2002-01-01

Objectives: To compare methods for defining the population at risk from a point source of air pollution. A major challenge for environmental epidemiology lies in correctly identifying populations at risk from exposure to environmental pollutants. The complexity of today's environment makes it essential that the methods chosen are accurate and sensitive.

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92%) used an observational design and focused on women (70%) with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups) and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although evolving, is still

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tilburt Jon C

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92% used an observational design and focused on women (70% with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although

Therapeutic product disposition in at-risk populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foster, B. C.

2009-01-01

In an emergency situation, such as a chemical, biological, radionuclide, nuclear or explosion (CBRNE) event, all patient populations are at increased risk of serious adverse events. Therapeutic product (TP) safety and efficacy depend on the disposition of the product through absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion. The ability of a patient to benefit from or merely tolerate a TP can be modified by many factors, including but not limited to culture, diet, disease, environmental contaminants, genetic predisposition, stress and socioeconomic status and recent life experiences. Metabolism is considered to have the greatest effect on safety and efficacy, as chemicals not metabolised can accumulate to toxic levels. Inter-individual variances in most drug metabolism enzymes may range up to greater than 1000-fold. The fetus, neonates, infants, individuals with hormonal change, infection or prior exposure to licit or illicit products and the elderly are more susceptible to increased risk of serious adverse health effects. The critically ill are the most at risk. The at-risk populations for a serious adverse event are dependent then on the CBRNE event, their physical and cognitive states and the inter-individual intrinsic and extrinsic factors that affect TP disposition. (authors)

Review of fall risk assessment in geriatric populations using inertial sensors

OpenAIRE

Howcroft, Jennifer; Kofman, Jonathan; Lemaire, Edward D

2013-01-01

Background Falls are a prevalent issue in the geriatric population and can result in damaging physical and psychological consequences. Fall risk assessment can provide information to enable appropriate interventions for those at risk of falling. Wearable inertial-sensor-based systems can provide quantitative measures indicative of fall risk in the geriatric population. Methods Forty studies that used inertial sensors to evaluate geriatric fall risk were reviewed and pertinent methodological f...

An example of population-level risk assessments for small mammals using individual-based population models.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmitt, Walter; Auteri, Domenica; Bastiansen, Finn; Ebeling, Markus; Liu, Chun; Luttik, Robert; Mastitsky, Sergey; Nacci, Diane; Topping, Chris; Wang, Magnus

2016-01-01

This article presents a case study demonstrating the application of 3 individual-based, spatially explicit population models (IBMs, also known as agent-based models) in ecological risk assessments to predict long-term effects of a pesticide to populations of small mammals. The 3 IBMs each used a hypothetical fungicide (FungicideX) in different scenarios: spraying in cereals (common vole, Microtus arvalis), spraying in orchards (field vole, Microtus agrestis), and cereal seed treatment (wood mouse, Apodemus sylvaticus). Each scenario used existing model landscapes, which differed greatly in size and structural complexity. The toxicological profile of FungicideX was defined so that the deterministic long-term first tier risk assessment would result in high risk to small mammals, thus providing the opportunity to use the IBMs for risk assessment refinement (i.e., higher tier risk assessment). Despite differing internal model design and scenarios, results indicated in all 3 cases low population sensitivity unless FungicideX was applied at very high (×10) rates. Recovery from local population impacts was generally fast. Only when patch extinctions occured in simulations of intentionally high acute toxic effects, recovery periods, then determined by recolonization, were of any concern. Conclusions include recommendations for the most important input considerations, including the selection of exposure levels, duration of simulations, statistically robust number of replicates, and endpoints to report. However, further investigation and agreement are needed to develop recommendations for landscape attributes such as size, structure, and crop rotation to define appropriate regulatory risk assessment scenarios. Overall, the application of IBMs provides multiple advantages to higher tier ecological risk assessments for small mammals, including consistent and transparent direct links to specific protection goals, and the consideration of more realistic scenarios. © 2015 SETAC.

Estimating cancer risks induced by CT screening for Korea population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Hye Jeong; Yang, Won Seok

2016-01-01

Computed Tomography(CT) has been used to diagnose early stages of cancer and other diseases. Since the number of CT screening has been increasing, there is now a debate about the possible benefits and risks of CT screening on asymptomatic individuals. CT screening has definite benefits, however the radiation risk of screening an asymptomatic individual is a serious problem that cannot be overlooked. Despite its potential risks, CT screening for asymptomatic individual has been gradually increased in Korea and it is attributed to increase collective effective dose. Therefore, we reported the risk level of each organ which is included in scan field for CT screening and analyzed and then evaluated the risk level of Korean population comparison to others, Hong Kong, U.S. and U.K. populations. LARs are lower with older ages for all populations of both sexes. We recommend CT screening after the age of 40 because from that age, LAR decreases and the danger of top 5 cancer increases.

Lung cancer risk of airborne particles for Italian population

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buonanno, G., E-mail: buonanno@unicas.it [Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Via Di Biasio 43, 03043 Cassino, FR (Italy); International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, 2 George Street 2, 4001 Brisbane, Qld. (Australia); Giovinco, G., E-mail: giovinco@unicas.it [Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Via Di Biasio 43, 03043 Cassino, FR (Italy); Morawska, L., E-mail: morawska@qut.edu.au [International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, 2 George Street 2, 4001 Brisbane, Qld. (Australia); Stabile, L., E-mail: stabile@unicas.it [Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Via Di Biasio 43, 03043 Cassino, FR (Italy)

2015-10-15

Airborne particles, including both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles, contain various carcinogens. Exposure and risk-assessment studies regularly use particle mass concentration as dosimetry parameter, therefore neglecting the potential impact of ultrafine particles due to their negligible mass compared to supermicrometric particles. The main purpose of this study was the characterization of lung cancer risk due to exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and some heavy metals associated with particle inhalation by Italian non-smoking people. A risk-assessment scheme, modified from an existing risk model, was applied to estimate the cancer risk contribution from both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles. Exposure assessment was carried out on the basis of particle number distributions measured in 25 smoke-free microenvironments in Italy. The predicted lung cancer risk was then compared to the cancer incidence rate in Italy to assess the number of lung cancer cases attributed to airborne particle inhalation, which represents one of the main causes of lung cancer, apart from smoking. Ultrafine particles are associated with a much higher risk than supermicrometric particles, and the modified risk-assessment scheme provided a more accurate estimate than the conventional scheme. Great attention has to be paid to indoor microenvironments and, in particular, to cooking and eating times, which represent the major contributors to lung cancer incidence in the Italian population. The modified risk assessment scheme can serve as a tool for assessing environmental quality, as well as setting up exposure standards for particulate matter. - Highlights: • Lung cancer risk for non-smoking Italian population due to particle inhalation. • The average lung cancer risk for Italian population is equal to 1.90×10{sup −2}. • Ultrafine particle is the aerosol metric mostly contributing to lung cancer risk. • B(a)P is the main (particle-bounded) compound

Lung cancer risk of airborne particles for Italian population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buonanno, G.; Giovinco, G.; Morawska, L.; Stabile, L.

2015-01-01

Airborne particles, including both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles, contain various carcinogens. Exposure and risk-assessment studies regularly use particle mass concentration as dosimetry parameter, therefore neglecting the potential impact of ultrafine particles due to their negligible mass compared to supermicrometric particles. The main purpose of this study was the characterization of lung cancer risk due to exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and some heavy metals associated with particle inhalation by Italian non-smoking people. A risk-assessment scheme, modified from an existing risk model, was applied to estimate the cancer risk contribution from both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles. Exposure assessment was carried out on the basis of particle number distributions measured in 25 smoke-free microenvironments in Italy. The predicted lung cancer risk was then compared to the cancer incidence rate in Italy to assess the number of lung cancer cases attributed to airborne particle inhalation, which represents one of the main causes of lung cancer, apart from smoking. Ultrafine particles are associated with a much higher risk than supermicrometric particles, and the modified risk-assessment scheme provided a more accurate estimate than the conventional scheme. Great attention has to be paid to indoor microenvironments and, in particular, to cooking and eating times, which represent the major contributors to lung cancer incidence in the Italian population. The modified risk assessment scheme can serve as a tool for assessing environmental quality, as well as setting up exposure standards for particulate matter. - Highlights: • Lung cancer risk for non-smoking Italian population due to particle inhalation. • The average lung cancer risk for Italian population is equal to 1.90×10 −2 . • Ultrafine particle is the aerosol metric mostly contributing to lung cancer risk. • B(a)P is the main (particle-bounded) compound contributing

Do a Firm's Equity Returns Reflect the Risk of Its Pension Plan?

OpenAIRE

Li Jin; Robert Merton; Zvi Bobie

2004-01-01

This paper examines the empirical question of whether systematic equity risk of U.S. firms as measured by beta from the Capital Asset Pricing Model reflects the risk of their pension plans. There are a number of reasons to suspect that it might not. Chief among them is the opaque set of accounting rules used to report pension assets, liabilities, and expenses. Pension plan assets and liabilities are off-balance sheet, and are often viewed as segregated from the rest of the firm, with its own ...

Fall risk in an active elderly population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Læssøe, Uffe; Hoeck, Hans C.; Simonsen, Ole

2007-01-01

risk can be assessed by testing balance performance. In this study a test battery of physiological parameters related to balance and falls was designed to address fall risk in a community dwelling elderly population. RESULTS: Ninety-four elderly males and females between 70 and 80 years of age were...... assessment in which the physiological performance is evaluated in relation to the activity profile of the individual. Udgivelsesdato: 2007-null...

Predation risk shapes social networks in fission-fusion populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer L Kelley

Full Text Available Predation risk is often associated with group formation in prey, but recent advances in methods for analysing the social structure of animal societies make it possible to quantify the effects of risk on the complex dynamics of spatial and temporal organisation. In this paper we use social network analysis to investigate the impact of variation in predation risk on the social structure of guppy shoals and the frequency and duration of shoal splitting (fission and merging (fusion events. Our analyses revealed that variation in the level of predation risk was associated with divergent social dynamics, with fish in high-risk populations displaying a greater number of associations with overall greater strength and connectedness than those from low-risk sites. Temporal patterns of organisation also differed according to predation risk, with fission events more likely to occur over two short time periods (5 minutes and 20 minutes in low-predation fish and over longer time scales (>1.5 hours in high-predation fish. Our findings suggest that predation risk influences the fine-scale social structure of prey populations and that the temporal aspects of organisation play a key role in defining social systems.

Predation Risk Shapes Social Networks in Fission-Fusion Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Kelley, Jennifer L.; Morrell, Lesley J.; Inskip, Chloe; Krause, Jens; Croft, Darren P.

2011-01-01

Predation risk is often associated with group formation in prey, but recent advances in methods for analysing the social structure of animal societies make it possible to quantify the effects of risk on the complex dynamics of spatial and temporal organisation. In this paper we use social network analysis to investigate the impact of variation in predation risk on the social structure of guppy shoals and the frequency and duration of shoal splitting (fission) and merging (fusion) events. Our analyses revealed that variation in the level of predation risk was associated with divergent social dynamics, with fish in high-risk populations displaying a greater number of associations with overall greater strength and connectedness than those from low-risk sites. Temporal patterns of organisation also differed according to predation risk, with fission events more likely to occur over two short time periods (5 minutes and 20 minutes) in low-predation fish and over longer time scales (>1.5 hours) in high-predation fish. Our findings suggest that predation risk influences the fine-scale social structure of prey populations and that the temporal aspects of organisation play a key role in defining social systems. PMID:21912627

Predicting population level risk effects of predation from the responses of individuals

OpenAIRE

Macleod, Colin D.; Macleod, Ross; Learmonth, Jennifer A.; Cresswell, Will; Pierce, G.J.

2014-01-01

Fear of predation produces large effects on prey population dynamics through indirect risk effects that can cause even greater impacts than direct predation mortality. As yet, there is no general theoretical framework for predicting when and how these population risk effects will arise in specific prey populations, meaning there is often little consideration given to the key role predator risk effects can play in understanding conservation and wildlife management challenges. Here, we propose ...

Large Scale Flood Risk Analysis using a New Hyper-resolution Population Dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, A.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Quinn, N.; Wing, O.

2017-12-01

Here we present the first national scale flood risk analyses, using high resolution Facebook Connectivity Lab population data and data from a hyper resolution flood hazard model. In recent years the field of large scale hydraulic modelling has been transformed by new remotely sensed datasets, improved process representation, highly efficient flow algorithms and increases in computational power. These developments have allowed flood risk analysis to be undertaken in previously unmodeled territories and from continental to global scales. Flood risk analyses are typically conducted via the integration of modelled water depths with an exposure dataset. Over large scales and in data poor areas, these exposure data typically take the form of a gridded population dataset, estimating population density using remotely sensed data and/or locally available census data. The local nature of flooding dictates that for robust flood risk analysis to be undertaken both hazard and exposure data should sufficiently resolve local scale features. Global flood frameworks are enabling flood hazard data to produced at 90m resolution, resulting in a mis-match with available population datasets which are typically more coarsely resolved. Moreover, these exposure data are typically focused on urban areas and struggle to represent rural populations. In this study we integrate a new population dataset with a global flood hazard model. The population dataset was produced by the Connectivity Lab at Facebook, providing gridded population data at 5m resolution, representing a resolution increase over previous countrywide data sets of multiple orders of magnitude. Flood risk analysis undertaken over a number of developing countries are presented, along with a comparison of flood risk analyses undertaken using pre-existing population datasets.

Dealing with at-risk populations in radiological/nuclear emergencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilkinson, D.

2009-01-01

In a mass casualty event, there will be at-risk populations that will require unique triage, treatment and consequence management to minimise immediate and long-term health effects. This statement is particularly true for radiological/nuclear (R/N) disasters where individuals exhibit a broad range of physiological responses to radiation exposure. For example, immunocompromised individuals will experience more detrimental radiation health effects; however, it is not always possible to definitively identify these individuals at the time of triage. Immediate and long-term consequence management for these individuals may require unique and potentially limited resources. Thus, at the time of an R/N event, it is crucial to assist community planners by: (a) rapidly identifying at-risk individuals who may have been exposed; (b) determining the dose and individual-specific health risks associated with radiation exposure; (c) identifying additional resources needed to deal with unique, population-specific requirements; and (d) developing treatment strategies in keeping with the rules of 'supply and demand'. A comprehensive approach to identifying issues relevant to the R/N emergency preparedness for dealing with at-risk populations will be discussed with the aim of defining future research objectives. (authors)

Reflective Practice and Competencies in Global Health Training: Lesson for Serving Diverse Patient Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Castillo, Jonathan; Goldenhar, Linda M.; Baker, Raymond C.; Kahn, Robert S.; DeWitt, Thomas G.

2010-01-01

Background Resident interest in global health care training is growing and has been shown to have a positive effect on participants' clinical skills and cultural competency. In addition, it is associated with career choices in primary care, public health, and in the service of underserved populations. The purpose of this study was to explore, through reflective practice, how participation in a formal global health training program influences pediatric residents' perspectives when caring for diverse patient populations. Methods Thirteen pediatric and combined-program residents enrolled in a year-long Global Health Scholars Program at Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center during the 2007–2008 academic year. Educational interventions included a written curriculum, a lecture series, one-on-one mentoring sessions, an experience abroad, and reflective journaling assignments. The American Society for Tropical Medicine and Hygiene global health competencies were used as an a priori coding framework to qualitatively analyze the reflective journal entries of the residents. Results Four themes emerged from the coded journal passages from all 13 residents: (1) the burden of global disease, as a heightened awareness of the diseases that affect humans worldwide; (2) immigrant/underserved health, reflected in a desire to apply lessons learned abroad at home to provide more culturally effective care to immigrant patients in the United States; (3) parenting, or observed parental, longing to assure that their children receive health care; and (4) humanitarianism, expressed as the desire to volunteer in future humanitarian health efforts in the United States and abroad. Conclusions Our findings suggest that participating in a global health training program helped residents begin to acquire competence in the American Society for Tropical Medicine and Hygiene competency domains. Such training also may strengthen residents' acquisition of professional skills, including the

The effects of spatial population dataset choice on estimates of population at risk of disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gething Peter W

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The spatial modeling of infectious disease distributions and dynamics is increasingly being undertaken for health services planning and disease control monitoring, implementation, and evaluation. Where risks are heterogeneous in space or dependent on person-to-person transmission, spatial data on human population distributions are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. Several different modeled human population distribution datasets are available and widely used, but the disparities among them and the implications for enumerating disease burdens and populations at risk have not been considered systematically. Here, we quantify some of these effects using global estimates of populations at risk (PAR of P. falciparum malaria as an example. Methods The recent construction of a global map of P. falciparum malaria endemicity enabled the testing of different gridded population datasets for providing estimates of PAR by endemicity class. The estimated population numbers within each class were calculated for each country using four different global gridded human population datasets: GRUMP (~1 km spatial resolution, LandScan (~1 km, UNEP Global Population Databases (~5 km, and GPW3 (~5 km. More detailed assessments of PAR variation and accuracy were conducted for three African countries where census data were available at a higher administrative-unit level than used by any of the four gridded population datasets. Results The estimates of PAR based on the datasets varied by more than 10 million people for some countries, even accounting for the fact that estimates of population totals made by different agencies are used to correct national totals in these datasets and can vary by more than 5% for many low-income countries. In many cases, these variations in PAR estimates comprised more than 10% of the total national population. The detailed country-level assessments suggested that none of the datasets was

Risk of eating disorders in immigrant populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Mustelin, L; Hedman, A M; Thornton, L M; Kuja-Halkola, R; Keski-Rahkonen, A; Cantor-Graae, E; Almqvist, C; Birgegård, A; Lichtenstein, P; Mortensen, P B; Pedersen, C B; Bulik, C M

2017-08-01

The risk of certain psychiatric disorders is elevated among immigrants. To date, no population studies on immigrant health have addressed eating disorders. We examined whether risk of eating disorders in first- and second-generation immigrants differs from native-born Danes and Swedes. All individuals born 1984-2002 (Danish cohort) and 1989-1999 (Swedish cohort) and residing in the respective country on their 10th birthday were included. They were followed up for the development of eating disorders based on out-patient and in-patient data. The risks of all eating disorder types were lower among first-generation immigrants compared to the native populations: Incidence-rate ratio (95% confidence interval) was 0.39 (0.29, 0.51) for anorexia nervosa, 0.60 (0.42, 0.83) for bulimia nervosa, and 0.62 (0.47, 0.79) for other eating disorders in Denmark and 0.27 (0.21, 0.34) for anorexia nervosa, 0.30 (0.18, 0.51) for bulimia nervosa, and 0.39 (0.32, 0.47) for other eating disorders in Sweden. Likewise, second-generation immigrants by both parents were at lower risk, whereas those with only one foreign-born parent were not. The decreased risk of eating disorders among immigrants is opposite to what has been observed for other psychiatric disorders, particularly schizophrenia. Possible explanations include buffering sociocultural factors and underdetection in health care. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer variation range assessment based on various radon risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Jing

2017-01-01

To address public concerns regarding radon risk and variations in risk estimates based on various risk models available in the literature, lifetime lung cancer risks were calculated with five well-known risk models using more recent Canadian vital statistics (5-year averages from 2008 to 2012). Variations in population risk estimation among various models were assessed. The results showed that the Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer can vary from 5.0 to 17% for men and 5.1 to 18% for women based on different radon risk models. Averaged over the estimates from various risk models with better radon dosimetry, 13% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian males and 14% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian females were attributable to long-term indoor radon exposure. (authors)

Reflecting Societal Values in Designing Flood Risk Management Strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adamson Mark

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In 2006, the Office of Public Works (OPW began the National Catchment-based Flood Risk Assessment and Management (CFRAM Programme through a series of pilot studies. A Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA Framework was developed through the pilot studies that integrated a number of objectives related to a wide range of potential impacts and benefits into the core of process of appraising and selecting suitable flood risk management measures for a given area or location, and then for prioritising national investments for different schemes and projects. This MCA Framework, that provides a systematic process of developing a non-monetised but numerical indicator of benefit and impact, has since been implemented nationally in the preparation of the Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs. A key feature of the MCA is that it should represent societal values. To this end, nationally representative quantitative research was undertaken to determine global weights that reflect the perceived importance of each of the objectives for reducing economic, social and environmental / cultural risks in flood management strategies. Saaty’s Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP, in conjunction with a pair-wise comparison of criteria relating to these risks, was utilised to determine weights. In excess of 1,000 structured interviews were completed where the relative importance of these objectives were assessed using a seven-point scale. The weighting given to each of the 13 specific objectives identified broadly followed expectations, with risk to people followed by risk to homes and properties being respectively the first and second most important, although some were given greater or less weighting than expected. The national application of the MCA Framework, using the weighted objectives based on this process, through the CFRAM Programme has generally lead to the identification of appropriate and, based on local consultation, acceptable options for each community.

Risk Factors for Venous Thromboembolism in Hospitalized Patients in the Chinese Population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Chunling

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Venous thromboembolism (VTE refers to the formation of a blood clot inside veins and has a high risk of inducing medical accidents. An effective risk assessment model will help screen high risk populations and prevent the occurrence of VTE. In this study, 287 VTE cases were collected and analyzed for risk factors in a Chinese population. The risks of VTE were evaluated using the Caprini and Padua models. Our results indicated that the Caprini model was more effective in evaluating VTE risk among hospitalized patients than the Padua model. As well, the Caprini model was more relevant in VTE risk assessment among surgery patients compared with internal medicine patients, while the Padua model showed no significant differences. In our studies, the most frequent risk factors included obesity, medical patients currently at bed rest, and severe lung disease. Our studies provide clinical support on selecting the suitable risk assessment model of VTE in the Chinese population.

Reflection of risk communication in 9 months after Fukushima nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogino, Haruyuki

2012-01-01

At the third symposium corresponding to the Fukushima accident held by the Japan Health Physics Society (JHPS) in December 2011, Youth Researcher's Association of JHPS presented 'risk communication in 9 months after Fukushima accident'. Focusing on the presentation, this article summarized social response of radiation risk in 9 months and activities of 'Q and A site that provides public with questions and answers related to radiation and daily life' by Society members as radiation protection experts after the Fukushima accident. The author raised some two problems related with (1) what and how should be 'judgments of best experts' reflecting the BSE case as 'trans-science' problem and (2) what's 'recommendation/standards document to be referred to' harmonizing with trend of international standards. Risk communication network should be not only between 'experts' and 'public' but also including international organizations. (T. Tanaka)

Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Barzi, F; Patel, A; Gu, D; Sritara, P; Lam, T H; Rodgers, A; Woodward, M

2007-02-01

Cardiovascular risk equations are traditionally derived from the Framingham Study. The accuracy of this approach in Asian populations, where resources for risk factor measurement may be limited, is unclear. To compare "low-information" equations (derived using only age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking status) derived from the Framingham Study with those derived from the Asian cohorts, on the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction. Separate equations to predict the 8-year risk of a cardiovascular event were derived from Asian and Framingham cohorts. The performance of these equations, and a subsequently "recalibrated" Framingham equation, were evaluated among participants from independent Chinese cohorts. Six cohort studies from Japan, Korea and Singapore (Asian cohorts); six cohort studies from China; the Framingham Study from the US. 172,077 participants from the Asian cohorts; 25,682 participants from Chinese cohorts and 6053 participants from the Framingham Study. In the Chinese cohorts, 542 cardiovascular events occurred during 8 years of follow-up. Both the Asian cohorts and the Framingham equations discriminated cardiovascular risk well in the Chinese cohorts; the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was at least 0.75 for men and women. However, the Framingham risk equation systematically overestimated risk in the Chinese cohorts by an average of 276% among men and 102% among women. The corresponding average overestimation using the Asian cohorts equation was 11% and 10%, respectively. Recalibrating the Framingham risk equation using cardiovascular disease incidence from the non-Chinese Asian cohorts led to an overestimation of risk by an average of 4% in women and underestimation of risk by an average of 2% in men. A low-information Framingham cardiovascular risk prediction tool, which, when recalibrated with contemporary data, is likely to estimate future cardiovascular risk with similar accuracy in Asian

Radiation Risk and Possible Consequences for Ukrainian Population

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pivovarov, Alexander [Ukrainian State Chemical-Technology Univ., Dnepropetrovsk (Ukraine)

2006-09-15

The paper deals with the values of risk related to environmental pollution with radionuclides from the main sources located both on the territory of Ukraine and outside, which affect the Ukrainian population, in the context of long-range outlook. Ratios of risk for stochastic effects occurrence are given per unit of individual or collective dose, as well as for occurrence of fatal cancer, non-fatal cancer or serious hereditary effects. Besides, the paper mentions not only the impact of ionizing radiation, but severe population stress as well, which in certain regions turns into radiophobia. It is shown that for essential decrease of radiation risk in Ukraine, global problems should be solved, first of all, at the governmental level. Whereas a number of issues connected with the Chernobyl catastrophe are at least partially solved, the problems concerning the effects of radon and other radiation-dangerous factors are still to be tackled.

Radiation Risk and Possible Consequences for Ukrainian Population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pivovarov, Alexander

2006-01-01

The paper deals with the values of risk related to environmental pollution with radionuclides from the main sources located both on the territory of Ukraine and outside, which affect the Ukrainian population, in the context of long-range outlook. Ratios of risk for stochastic effects occurrence are given per unit of individual or collective dose, as well as for occurrence of fatal cancer, non-fatal cancer or serious hereditary effects. Besides, the paper mentions not only the impact of ionizing radiation, but severe population stress as well, which in certain regions turns into radiophobia. It is shown that for essential decrease of radiation risk in Ukraine, global problems should be solved, first of all, at the governmental level. Whereas a number of issues connected with the Chernobyl catastrophe are at least partially solved, the problems concerning the effects of radon and other radiation-dangerous factors are still to be tackled

Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

2015-04-01

Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric

Automation of GIS-Based Population Data-Collection for Transportation Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MILLS, G. SCOTT; NEUHAUSER, SIEGLINDE

1999-01-01

Estimation of the potential radiological risks associated with highway transport of radioactive materials (RAM) requires input data describing population densities adjacent to all portions of the route to be traveled. Previously, aggregated risks for entire multi-state routes were adequately estimated from population data with low geographic resolution. Current demands for geographically-specific risk estimates require similar increases in resolution of population density adjacent to route segments. With the advent of commercial geographic information systems (GISs) and databases describing highways, U.S. Census Blocks, and other information that is geographically distributed, it became feasible to determine and tabulate population characteristics along transportation routes with 1-kilometer resolution. This report describes an automated method of collecting population data adjacent to route segments (for calculation of incident-free doses) based on a commercial GIS. It also describes a statistical method of resolving remaining resolution issues, and an adaptation of the automation method to collection of data on population under a hypothetical plume of contamination resulting from a potential transportation accident

Modelling Risk to US Military Populations from Stopping Blanket Mandatory Polio Vaccination.

Science.gov (United States)

Burgess, Colleen; Burgess, Andrew; McMullen, Kellie

2017-01-01

Transmission of polio poses a threat to military forces when deploying to regions where such viruses are endemic. US-born soldiers generally enter service with immunity resulting from childhood immunization against polio; moreover, new recruits are routinely vaccinated with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), supplemented based upon deployment circumstances. Given residual protection from childhood vaccination, risk-based vaccination may sufficiently protect troops from polio transmission. This analysis employed a mathematical system for polio transmission within military populations interacting with locals in a polio-endemic region to evaluate changes in vaccination policy. Removal of blanket immunization had no effect on simulated polio incidence among deployed military populations when risk-based immunization was employed; however, when these individuals reintegrated with their base populations, risk of transmission to nondeployed personnel increased by 19%. In the absence of both blanket- and risk-based immunization, transmission to nondeployed populations increased by 25%. The overall number of new infections among nondeployed populations was negligible for both scenarios due to high childhood immunization rates, partial protection against transmission conferred by IPV, and low global disease incidence levels. Risk-based immunization driven by deployment to polio-endemic regions is sufficient to prevent transmission among both deployed and nondeployed US military populations.

Modifiable Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Indigenous Populations

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Adam A. Lucero

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. To identify modifiable cardio-metabolic and lifestyle risk factors among indigenous populations from Australia (Aboriginal Australians/Torres Strait Islanders, New Zealand (Māori, and the United States (American Indians and Alaska Natives that contribute to cardiovascular disease (CVD. Methods. National health surveys were identified where available. Electronic databases identified sources for filling missing data. The most relevant data were identified, organized, and synthesized. Results. Compared to their non-indigenous counterparts, indigenous populations exhibit lower life expectancies and a greater prevalence of CVD. All indigenous populations have higher rates of obesity and diabetes, hypertension is greater for Māori and Aboriginal Australians, and high cholesterol is greater only among American Indians/Alaska Natives. In turn, all indigenous groups exhibit higher rates of smoking and dangerous alcohol behaviour as well as consuming less fruits and vegetables. Aboriginal Australians and American Indians/Alaska Natives also exhibit greater rates of sedentary behaviour. Conclusion. Indigenous groups from Australia, New Zealand, and the United States have a lower life expectancy then their respective non-indigenous counterparts. A higher prevalence of CVD is a major driving force behind this discrepancy. A cluster of modifiable cardio-metabolic risk factors precede CVD, which, in turn, is linked to modifiable lifestyle risk factors.

Risk factors and classification of stillbirth in a Middle Eastern population: a retrospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kunjachen Maducolil, Mariam; Abid, Hafsa; Lobo, Rachael Marian; Chughtai, Ambreen Qayyum; Afzal, Arjumand Muhammad; Saleh, Huda Abdullah Hussain; Lindow, Stephen W

2017-12-21

To estimate the incidence of stillbirth, explore the associated maternal and fetal factors and to evaluate the most appropriate classification of stillbirth for a multiethnic population. This is a retrospective population-based study of stillbirth in a large tertiary unit. Data of each stillbirth with a gestational age >/=24 weeks in the year 2015 were collected from electronic medical records and analyzed. The stillbirth rate for our multiethnic population is 7.81 per 1000 births. Maternal medical factors comprised 52.4% in which the rates of hypertensive disorders, diabetes and other medical disorders were 22.5%, 20.8% and 8.3%, respectively. The most common fetal factor was intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) (22.5%) followed by congenital anomalies (21.6%). All cases were categorized using the Wigglesworth, Aberdeen, Tulip, ReCoDe and International Classification of Diseases-perinatal mortality (ICD-PM) classifications and the rates of unclassified stillbirths were 59.2%, 46.6%, 16.6%, 11.6% and 7.5%, respectively. An autopsy was performed in 9.1% of cases reflecting local religious and cultural sensitivities. This study highlighted the modifiable risk factors among the Middle Eastern population. The most appropriate classification was the ICD-PM. The low rates of autopsy prevented a detailed evaluation of stillbirths, therefore it is suggested that a minimally invasive autopsy [postmortem magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)] may improve the quality of care.

Validation of an imaging based cardiovascular risk score in a Scottish population.

Science.gov (United States)

Kockelkoren, Remko; Jairam, Pushpa M; Murchison, John T; Debray, Thomas P A; Mirsadraee, Saeed; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Jong, Pim A de; van Beek, Edwin J R

2018-01-01

A radiological risk score that determines 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using routine care CT and patient information readily available to radiologists was previously developed. External validation in a Scottish population was performed to assess the applicability and validity of the risk score in other populations. 2915 subjects aged ≥40 years who underwent routine clinical chest CT scanning for non-cardiovascular diagnostic indications were followed up until first diagnosis of, or death from, CVD. Using a case-cohort approach, all cases and a random sample of 20% of the participant's CT examinations were visually graded for cardiovascular calcifications and cardiac diameter was measured. The radiological risk score was determined using imaging findings, age, gender, and CT indication. Performance on 5-year CVD risk prediction was assessed. 384 events occurred in 2124 subjects during a mean follow-up of 4.25 years (0-6.4 years). The risk score demonstrated reasonable performance in the studied population. Calibration showed good agreement between actual and 5-year predicted risk of CVD. The c-statistic was 0.71 (95%CI:0.67-0.75). The radiological CVD risk score performed adequately in the Scottish population offering a potential novel strategy for identifying patients at high risk for developing cardiovascular disease using routine care CT data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying risks experienced by populations exposed to low levels of environmental contaminants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.

1985-05-01

The objective was to provide a direct assessment of risks associated with exposures at the actual levels of interest. There are several epidemiological studies of populations that have received occupational exposure to radiation including workers at the Hanford nuclear facility. This population was used as a typical example to illustrate methods of analyzing such data. The Hanford data appear to demonstrate directly that risk estimates obtained by linear extrapolation from data on populations exposed at high levels are unlikely to underestimate risks by a factor greater than three. 15 refs

Quantifying introgression risk with realistic population genetics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ghosh, A.; Meirmans, P.G.; Haccou, P.

2012-01-01

Introgression is the permanent incorporation of genes from the genome of one population into another. This can have severe consequences, such as extinction of endemic species, or the spread of transgenes. Quantification of the risk of introgression is an important component of genetically modified

Plasma alkylresorcinols reflect gluten intake and distinguish between gluten-rich and gluten-poor diets in a population at risk of metabolic syndrome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lind, Mads Vendelbo; Madsen, Mia Linda; Rumessen, Jüri J

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Many patients with celiac disease experience difficulties in adherence to a gluten-free diet. Methods for testing compliance to a gluten-free diet are costly and cumbersome. Thus, a simple biomarker of gluten intake is needed in a clinical setting and will be useful for epidemiologic...... in plasma total alkylresorcinols per 1-g increase in reported gluten intake (P gluten-free diet as well as to help investigations into the possible effects of gluten in the wider population. This trial...... 8 wk of a gluten-rich and gluten-poor diet separated by a washout period of ≥6 wk. We measured fasting plasma concentrations of alkylresorcinols to determine if they reflected differences in gluten intake as a secondary outcome of the original study. In addition, we investigated in 118 Danish adults...

Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Forbes, Valery E.; Calow, Peter; Grimm, Volker

2011-01-01

population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between...

Estimating population health risk from low-level environmental radon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, D.R.

1980-01-01

Although incidence of respiratory cancer is directly related to inhalation of radon and radon daughters, the magnitude of the actual risk is uncertain for members of the general population exposed for long periods to low-level concentrations. Currently, any such estimate of the risk must rely on data obtained through previous studies of underground-miner populations. Several methods of risk analysis have resulted from these studies. Since the breathing atmospheres, smoking patterns, and physiology are different between miners and the general public, overestimates of lung cancer risk to the latter may have resulted. Strong evidence exists to support the theory of synergistic action between alpha radiation and other agents, and therefore a modified relative risk model was developed to predict lung cancer risks to the general public. The model considers latent period, observation period, age dependency, and inherent risks from smoking or geographical location. A test of the model showed excellent agreement with results of the study of Czechoslovakian uranium miners, for which the necessary time factors were available. The risk model was also used to predict lung cancer incidence among residents of homes on reclaimed Florida phosphate lands, and results of this analysis indicate that over the space of many years, the increased incidence of lung cancer due to elevated radon levels may be indisgtinguishable from those due to other causes

Managing mixed dyslipidemia in special populations

OpenAIRE

Miller, Michael

2010-01-01

Controlling low-density lipoprotein cholesterol is one of the major focuses of cardiovascular care. However, the twin global pandemics of obesity and diabetes are promoting an increased prevalence of associated cardiometabolic risk factors. These factors include mixed dyslipidemia, which is prevalent among several important subgroups of the overall population. Cardiovascular risk increases as women reach and extend beyond menopause, partly reflective of dyslipidemia. In addition, women with p...

Global importation and population risk factors for measles in New Zealand: a case study for highly immunized populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Hayman, D T S; Marshall, J C; French, N P; Carpenter, T E; Roberts, M G; Kiedrzynski, T

2017-07-01

As endemic measles is eliminated through immunization, countries must determine the risk factors for the importation of measles into highly immunized populations to target control measures. Despite eliminating endemic measles, New Zealand suffers from outbreaks after introductions from abroad, enabling us to use it as a model for measles introduction risk. We used a generalized linear model to analyze risk factors for 1137 measles cases from 2007 to June 2014, provide estimates of national immunity levels, and model measles importation risk. People of European ethnicity made up the majority of measles cases. Age is a positive risk factor, particularly 0-2-year-olds and 5-17-year-old Europeans, along with increased wealth. Pacific islanders were also at greater risk, but due to 0-2-year-old cases. Despite recent high measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine immunization coverage, overall population immunity against measles remains ~90% and is lower in people born between 1982 and 2005. Greatest measles importation risk is during December, and countries predicted to be sources have historical connections and highest travel rates (Australia and UK), followed by Asian countries with high travel rates and higher measles incidences. Our results suggest measles importation due to travel is seeding measles outbreaks, and immunization levels are insufficient to continue to prevent outbreaks because of heterogeneous immunity in the population, leaving particular age groups at risk.

Investigation of the Influence of Leaf Thickness on Canopy Reflectance and Physiological Traits in Upland and Pima Cotton Populations

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Duke Pauli

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Many systems for field-based, high-throughput phenotyping (FB-HTP quantify and characterize the reflected radiation from the crop canopy to derive phenotypes, as well as infer plant function and health status. However, given the technology's nascent status, it remains unknown how biophysical and physiological properties of the plant canopy impact downstream interpretation and application of canopy reflectance data. In that light, we assessed relationships between leaf thickness and several canopy-associated traits, including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, which was collected via active reflectance sensors carried on a mobile FB-HTP system, carbon isotope discrimination (CID, and chlorophyll content. To investigate the relationships among traits, two distinct cotton populations, an upland (Gossypium hirsutum L. recombinant inbred line (RIL population of 95 lines and a Pima (G. barbadense L. population composed of 25 diverse cultivars, were evaluated under contrasting irrigation regimes, water-limited (WL and well-watered (WW conditions, across 3 years. We detected four quantitative trait loci (QTL and significant variation in both populations for leaf thickness among genotypes as well as high estimates of broad-sense heritability (on average, above 0.7 for both populations, indicating a strong genetic basis for leaf thickness. Strong phenotypic correlations (maximum r = −0.73 were observed between leaf thickness and NDVI in the Pima population, but not the RIL population. Additionally, estimated genotypic correlations within the RIL population for leaf thickness with CID, chlorophyll content, and nitrogen discrimination (r^gij = −0.32, 0.48, and 0.40, respectively were all significant under WW but not WL conditions. Economically important fiber quality traits did not exhibit significant phenotypic or genotypic correlations with canopy traits. Overall, our results support considering variation in leaf thickness as a potential

College's hot topics? Wildfire and Hazards' risk perception among university's population

Science.gov (United States)

Wuerzer, T.

2014-12-01

This research presents a novel perspective on college students and their risk perception in a fire prone US State; Idaho. Idaho was "top #1" in burned lands by acreage in 2012 with approximate 15% of all US burned lands; in 2013 "top #2". Past studies have conducted surveys on residents in high wildfire risk communities to learn what factors make homeowners more likely to engage in mitigation activities and therefore increase communities' resiliency. This research emphasis is on a population that deals with the threat of fire but is likely less invested through property ownership and other investment of risk; yet, equally threatened in quality of life. Are college students the left-out population in the 'planning for wildfires' and its communication process? Main hypothesis is that a college population will have a different perception and awareness (and therefore mitigation actions) than i.e. residents invested in the wild land urban interface (WUI). Dominant research methodologies in past studies are identified as surveys, focus groups, or interviews focusing on homeowners in fire prone areas that have witnessed wildfire or are exposed to increasing fire risk. Yet again, research on population that has no property ownership, investments at stake, and therefore no direct monetary values associated (but potentially non-monetary), is found little to none in these studies. The university population based study and its findings offers a contrast to current literature related to these traditional residents surveys/interviews. The study's survey and interactive spatial assessment of risk perception with allocation of perceived hazards zones promotes understanding of where risk is apparent for participants. Results are used to inform agencies such as campus emergency management, regional wild fire mitigation efforts, and to enhance public communication. Lessons learned include the challenges of a comprehensive inclusion process when mitigating for hazards and building

Type 2 diabetes risk alleles demonstrate extreme directional differentiation among human populations, compared to other diseases.

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Rong Chen

Full Text Available Many disease-susceptible SNPs exhibit significant disparity in ancestral and derived allele frequencies across worldwide populations. While previous studies have examined population differentiation of alleles at specific SNPs, global ethnic patterns of ensembles of disease risk alleles across human diseases are unexamined. To examine these patterns, we manually curated ethnic disease association data from 5,065 papers on human genetic studies representing 1,495 diseases, recording the precise risk alleles and their measured population frequencies and estimated effect sizes. We systematically compared the population frequencies of cross-ethnic risk alleles for each disease across 1,397 individuals from 11 HapMap populations, 1,064 individuals from 53 HGDP populations, and 49 individuals with whole-genome sequences from 10 populations. Type 2 diabetes (T2D demonstrated extreme directional differentiation of risk allele frequencies across human populations, compared with null distributions of European-frequency matched control genomic alleles and risk alleles for other diseases. Most T2D risk alleles share a consistent pattern of decreasing frequencies along human migration into East Asia. Furthermore, we show that these patterns contribute to disparities in predicted genetic risk across 1,397 HapMap individuals, T2D genetic risk being consistently higher for individuals in the African populations and lower in the Asian populations, irrespective of the ethnicity considered in the initial discovery of risk alleles. We observed a similar pattern in the distribution of T2D Genetic Risk Scores, which are associated with an increased risk of developing diabetes in the Diabetes Prevention Program cohort, for the same individuals. This disparity may be attributable to the promotion of energy storage and usage appropriate to environments and inconsistent energy intake. Our results indicate that the differential frequencies of T2D risk alleles may

Radiation tumorigenesis in inbred laboratory animals and cancer risks in irradiated human populations. Two widely different problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walinder, G.

1978-01-01

The mammal has efficient defence mechanisms against the development of tumours. These mechanisms are successively deteriorated by ionizing radiation when the dose increases beyond certain 'borderline levels'. Consequently, most animal strains demonstrate a bi-phasic dose-tumour relationship with a low-dose limb, the slope of which cannot be distinguished from zero, and a high-dose limb that increases with increasing doses. There are four or five exceptions to this 'rule' but in most of these cases the probable reasons for the deviations are known. Some human tumours as observed in epidemiological investigations do not demonstrate a similar clearly bi-phasic dose response. In all probability, this discrepancy does not reflect a higher susceptibility to radiation-induced tumours in man compared with other mammals. It is rather a consequence of a greater statistical variation in radiosensitivity in heterogeneous human populations than among inbred animals living standardized conditions. Accordingly, when maximum permissible dose levels are to be determined one should extrapolate from epidemiological data. Furthermore, these extrapolations should be linear if the data do not clearly deviate from a straight line, and if there are no scientific reasons to assume that a threshold exists. This formal method would not produce a biological description of what may happen in the low-dose area but rather an upper risk limit for the population studied. The real low-dose risk cannot be known. For the same pragmatic reason other radiological or non-radiological risks should be determined in the same manner, particularly when risks are to be compared. (author)

Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In

2017-02-01

The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.

Review of fall risk assessment in geriatric populations using inertial sensors

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Falls are a prevalent issue in the geriatric population and can result in damaging physical and psychological consequences. Fall risk assessment can provide information to enable appropriate interventions for those at risk of falling. Wearable inertial-sensor-based systems can provide quantitative measures indicative of fall risk in the geriatric population. Methods Forty studies that used inertial sensors to evaluate geriatric fall risk were reviewed and pertinent methodological features were extracted; including, sensor placement, derived parameters used to assess fall risk, fall risk classification method, and fall risk classification model outcomes. Results Inertial sensors were placed only on the lower back in the majority of papers (65%). One hundred and thirty distinct variables were assessed, which were categorized as position and angle (7.7%), angular velocity (11.5%), linear acceleration (20%), spatial (3.8%), temporal (23.1%), energy (3.8%), frequency (15.4%), and other (14.6%). Fallers were classified using retrospective fall history (30%), prospective fall occurrence (15%), and clinical assessment (32.5%), with 22.5% using a combination of retrospective fall occurrence and clinical assessments. Half of the studies derived models for fall risk prediction, which reached high levels of accuracy (62-100%), specificity (35-100%), and sensitivity (55-99%). Conclusions Inertial sensors are promising sensors for fall risk assessment. Future studies should identify fallers using prospective techniques and focus on determining the most promising sensor sites, in conjunction with determination of optimally predictive variables. Further research should also attempt to link predictive variables to specific fall risk factors and investigate disease populations that are at high risk of falls. PMID:23927446

Type 2 Diabetes Risk Allele Loci in the Qatari Population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah L O'Beirne

Full Text Available The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D is increasing in the Middle East. However, the genetic risk factors for T2D in the Middle Eastern populations are not known, as the majority of studies of genetic risk for T2D are in Europeans and Asians.All subjects were ≥3 generation Qataris. Cases with T2D (n = 1,124 and controls (n = 590 were randomly recruited and assigned to the 3 known Qatari genetic subpopulations [Bedouin (Q1, Persian/South Asian (Q2 and African (Q3]. Subjects underwent genotyping for 37 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in 29 genes known to be associated with T2D in Europeans and/or Asian populations, and an additional 27 tag SNPs related to these susceptibility loci. Pre-study power analysis suggested that with the known incidence of T2D in adult Qataris (22%, the study population size would be sufficient to detect significant differences if the SNPs were risk factors among Qataris, assuming that the odds ratio (OR for T2D SNPs in Qatari's is greater than or equal to the SNP with highest known OR in other populations.Haplotype analysis demonstrated that Qatari haplotypes in the region of known T2D risk alleles in Q1 and Q2 genetic subpopulations were similar to European haplotypes. After Benjamini-Hochberg adjustment for multiple testing, only two SNPs (rs7903146 and rs4506565, both associated with transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2, achieved statistical significance in the whole study population. When T2D subjects and control subjects were assigned to the known 3 Qatari subpopulations, and analyzed individually and with the Q1 and Q2 genetic subpopulations combined, one of these SNPs (rs4506565 was also significant in the admixed group. No other SNPs associated with T2D in all Qataris or individual genetic subpopulations.With the caveats of the power analysis, the European/Asian T2D SNPs do not contribute significantly to the high prevalence of T2D in the Qatari population, suggesting that the genetic risks for T2D are

Bayesian Hierarchical Structure for Quantifying Population Variability to Inform Probabilistic Health Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, Kan; Allen, Bruce C; Wheeler, Matthew W

2017-10-01

Human variability is a very important factor considered in human health risk assessment for protecting sensitive populations from chemical exposure. Traditionally, to account for this variability, an interhuman uncertainty factor is applied to lower the exposure limit. However, using a fixed uncertainty factor rather than probabilistically accounting for human variability can hardly support probabilistic risk assessment advocated by a number of researchers; new methods are needed to probabilistically quantify human population variability. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify variability among different populations. This approach jointly characterizes the distribution of risk at background exposure and the sensitivity of response to exposure, which are commonly represented by model parameters. We demonstrate, through both an application to real data and a simulation study, that using the proposed hierarchical structure adequately characterizes variability across different populations. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Growing pains: How risk perception and risk communication research can help to manage the challenges of global population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Dawson, Ian G J; Johnson, Johnnie E V

2014-08-01

In 2011, the global human population reached 7 billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed 9 billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals' decisions (in households, organizations, governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this article examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The article also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevity. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Terrestrial population models for ecological risk assessment: A state-of-the-art review

Science.gov (United States)

Emlen, J.M.

1989-01-01

Few attempts have been made to formulate models for predicting impacts of xenobiotic chemicals on wildlife populations. However, considerable effort has been invested in wildlife optimal exploitation models. Because death from intoxication has a similar effect on population dynamics as death by harvesting, these management models are applicable to ecological risk assessment. An underlying Leslie-matrix bookkeeping formulation is widely applicable to vertebrate wildlife populations. Unfortunately, however, the various submodels that track birth, death, and dispersal rates as functions of the physical, chemical, and biotic environment are by their nature almost inevitably highly species- and locale-specific. Short-term prediction of one-time chemical applications requires only information on mortality before and after contamination. In such cases a simple matrix formulation may be adequate for risk assessment. But generally, risk must be projected over periods of a generation or more. This precludes generic protocols for risk assessment and also the ready and inexpensive predictions of a chemical's influence on a given population. When designing and applying models for ecological risk assessment at the population level, the endpoints (output) of concern must be carefully and rigorously defined. The most easily accessible and appropriate endpoints are (1) pseudoextinction (the frequency or probability of a population falling below a prespecified density), and (2) temporal mean population density. Spatial and temporal extent of predicted changes must be clearly specified a priori to avoid apparent contradictions and confusion.

Twins less frequent than expected among male births in risk averse populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Karasek, Deborah; Goodman, Julia; Gemmill, Alison; Falconi, April; Hartig, Terry; Magganas, Aristotle; Catalano, Ralph

2015-06-01

Male twin gestations exhibit higher incidence of fetal morbidity and mortality than singleton gestations. From an evolutionary perspective, the relatively high rates of infant and child mortality among male twins born into threatening environments reduce the fitness of these gestations, making them more vulnerable to fetal loss. Women do not perceive choosing to spontaneously abort gestations although the outcome may result from estimates, made without awareness, of the risks of continuing a pregnancy. Here, we examine whether the non-conscious decisional biology of gestation can be linked to conscious risk aversion. We test this speculation by measuring the association between household surveys in Sweden that gauge financial risk aversion in the population and the frequency of twins among live male births. We used time-series regression methods to estimate our suspected associations and Box-Jenkins modeling to ensure that autocorrelation did not confound the estimation or reduce its efficiency. We found, consistent with theory, that financial risk aversion in the population correlates inversely with the odds of a twin among Swedish males born two months later. The odds of a twin among males fell by approximately 3.5% two months after unexpectedly great risk aversion in the population. This work implies that shocks that affect population risk aversion carry implications for fetal loss in vulnerable twin pregnancies.

NHS health checks through general practice: randomised trial of population cardiovascular risk reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cochrane Thomas

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The global burden of the major vascular diseases is projected to rise and to remain the dominant non-communicable disease cluster well into the twenty first century. The Department of Health in England has developed the NHS Health Check service as a policy initiative to reduce population vascular disease risk. The aims of this study were to monitor population changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors over the first year of the new service and to assess the value of tailored lifestyle support, including motivational interview with ongoing support and referral to other services. Methods Randomised trial comparing NHS Health Check service only with NHS Health Check service plus additional lifestyle support in Stoke on Trent, England. Thirty eight general practices and 601 (365 usual care, 236 additional lifestyle support patients were recruited and randomised independently between September 2009 and February 2010. Changes in population CVD risk between baseline and one year follow-up were compared, using intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome was the Framingham 10 year CVD risk score. Secondary outcomes included individual modifiable risk measures and prevalence of individual risk categories. Additional lifestyle support included referral to a lifestyle coach and free sessions as needed for: weight management, physical activity, cook and eat and positive thinking. Results Average population CVD risk decreased from 32.9% to 29.4% (p Conclusions The NHS Health Check service in Stoke on Trent resulted in significant reduction in estimated population CVD risk. There was no evidence of further benefit of the additional lifestyle support services in terms of absolute CVD risk reduction.

Plutonium in the environment: individual and population risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burley, G.

1980-01-01

This paper outlines the rationales for protection of individuals and populations and indicates the experience of the Environmental Protection Agency with development of radiation protection guidance for persons exposed to plutonium in the environment. Criteria for minimization of risk and rationales for protection are obviously interrelated and serve the same objective. There are, however, several different types of rationales for protection. The first category of rationales for protection is that of engineering criteria, which vary in level of stringency. A second category of rationales of protection is that based on risk, both absolute and relative. For radioactive materials, these rationales are based primarily on complex correlations of absorbed dose and adverse health effects. The last category of rationales of protection comprises judgments concerned with the larger perspective of societal impacts. This perspective includes the balancing of the costs and benefits of an activity, especially from the broader viewpoint of its impact on the population as a whole. The risks associated with transuranium elements in the environment are reasonably well understood and can be assessed on a quantitative basis, but the question of balancing them against their benefits to society may be much more difficult

“Is it Safe?” Risk Perception and Drinking Water in a Vulnerable Population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas Spence

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Access to safe drinking water is a pressing social policy issue globally. Despite the milestones reached in this area of Canadian public health, marginalized and vulnerable populations, including those founded on racialized identity, such as First Nations, continue to be plagued by accessibility issues. This work sheds new perspective on the issue, arguing for a research and policy focus that is inclusive of risk perception. A model of risk perception of drinking water is developed and tested for First Nations on reserve in Canada using the 2001 Aboriginal Peoples Survey. It is shown that the analytical use of racialized identity advances understanding of risk perception and the environment (water. Moreover, a large degree of heterogeneity within the First Nation population across a number of social determinants of risk perception illustrates the shortcomings of framing the issue in a simplistic manner (First Nation population versus general population. Implications for risk research, including risk communication & management, and policy are provided.

Chagas Disease Knowledge and Risk Behaviors of the Homeless Population in Houston, TX.

Science.gov (United States)

Ingber, Alexandra; Garcia, Melissa N; Leon, Juan; Murray, Kristy O

2018-04-01

Chagas disease is a parasitic infection, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, endemic in Latin America. Sylvatic T. cruzi-infected triatomine vectors are present in rural and urban areas in the southern USA and may transmit T. cruzi infection to at-risk populations, such as homeless individuals. Our study aimed to evaluate Chagas disease knowledge and behaviors potentially associated with transmission risk of Chagas disease among Houston, Texas' homeless population by performing interviews with 212 homeless individuals. The majority of the 212 surveyed homeless individuals were male (79%), African-American (43%), American-born individuals (96%). About 30% of the individuals reported having seen triatomines in Houston, and 25% had evidence of blood-borne transmission risk (IV drug use and/or unregulated tattoos). The median total time homeless was significantly associated with recognition of the triatomine vector. Our survey responses indicate that the homeless populations may exhibit potential risks for Chagas disease, due to increased vector exposure, and participation in blood-borne pathogen risk behaviors. Our findings warrant additional research to quantify the prevalence of Chagas disease among homeless populations.

Seroprevalence of Leptospira antibodies among populations at risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdul-Baki Abdullah Al-Robasi

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Objective: This study was performed to assess the Leptospira IgG antibodies seroprevalence among populations at risk in Hodeida Governorate, Yemen. Methods: A total of 200 subjects (136 males and 64 females participated in this study during June and December 2012.They represented 10 sewage workers, 22 butchers, 16 construction workers, 108 agriculture workers, 20 hospital sanitary workers and 24 blood donors. Predesigned questionnaires and consent were taken from each individual. Blood samples were collected from subjects, and the sera were tested by ELISA to detect the presence of leptospira IgG antibodies. The possible related factors for seropositivity were evaluated. Results: Leptospira IgG antibodies were found positive in 42% of the participants. The highest seroprevalence level was detected in sewage workers (80%, followed by hospital sanitary workers (60%, construction workers (37.5% and farmers (37%. The lowest of antibodies was in butchers (36.4%. Seroprevalence among blood donors was 25% which was comparatively less than of the populations at risk. Seropositivity of Leptospira IgG antibodies was found higher among males than females (42.6% vs. 34.4%. The highest Leptospira antibodies seropositivity was among elderly participants (81.8%. The seropositivity of antibodies in population live in rural and urban areas was not significant differences. As for closely contacting with animals, the highest antibodies were discovered in people who had goats (80% and sheep (60.9%. Conclusion: Individuals engaged in risk activities are often exposed to leptospiral infection. Therefore, control and prevention policy toward these people are necessary. J Microbiol Infect Dis 2015;5(1: 1-4

Radiation risk perception: a discrepancy between the experts and the general population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perko, Tanja

2014-01-01

Determining the differences in the perception of risks between experts who are regularly exposed to radiation, and lay people provides important insights into how potential hazards may be effectively communicated to the public. In the present study we examined lay people's (N = 1020) and experts' (N = 332) perception of five different radiological risks: nuclear waste, medical x-rays, natural radiation, an accident at a nuclear installation in general, and the Fukushima accident in particular. In order to link risk perception with risk communication, media reporting about radiation risks is analysed using quantitative and qualitative content analyses. The results showed that experts perceive radiological risks differently from the general public. Experts' perception of medical X-rays and natural radiation is significantly higher than in general population, while for nuclear waste and an accident at a nuclear installation, experts have lower risk perception than the general population. In-depth research is conducted for a group of workers that received an effective dose higher than 0.5 mSv in the year before the study; for this group we identify predictors of risk perception. The results clearly show that mass media don't use the same language as technical experts in addressing radiological risks. The study demonstrates that the discrepancy in risk perception and the communication gap between the experts and the general population presents a big challenge in understanding each other

Risk and protective factors for chronic diseases in adults: a population-based study

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Danielle Cristina Guimarães da Silva

Full Text Available Abstract The article describes the relative frequency ok of risk and protective behaviors for chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs in adults residing in Viçosa, Brazil. A cross-section-al population-based study including 1,226 adults living in the municipality. We used a structured questionnaire containing questions sociodemographic and behavioral The risk and protection factors evaluated were: smoking, physical activity, excessive consumption of alcohol and food consumption. The proportion of risk and protection factors was calculated in the total population, according to gender, education and socioeconomic status. The studied population has a high frequency of risk factors for NCDs, such as excessive consumption of alcoholic beverages, habit of consuming whole milk, habit of eating meat with visible fat, regular consumption of soft drinks and 78.5% did not achieve the minimum recommendation for physical activity in leisure time. With regard to protective factors, 86.2% of the population reported regular consumption of fruits and vegetables, and 73%, of beans. It was found the highest frequency of risk factors in among males, in younger people and middle socioeconomic status. This population has an urgent need for public policy of municipal planning to change this current scenario.

A spatially-evaluated methodology for assessing risk to a population from contaminated land

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gay, J. Rebecca; Korre, Anna

2006-01-01

A methodology is proposed which combines quantitative probabilistic human health risk assessment and spatial statistical methods (geostatistics) to produce an assessment of risks to human health from exposure to contaminated land, in a manner which preserves the spatial distribution of risks and provides a measure of uncertainty in the assessment. Maps of soil contaminant levels, which incorporate uncertainty, are produced from sparse sample data using sequential indicator simulation. A real, age-stratified population is mapped across the contaminated area, and intake of soil contaminants by individuals is calculated probabilistically using an adaptation of the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model. An abundance of information is contained in results which can be interrogated at the population and individual level, and mapped to provide a powerful visual tool for risk managers, enabling efficient targeting of risk reduction measures to different locations. - A methodology for calculating and mapping risks to a population from intake of soil contaminants

Incorporating Human Interindividual Biotransformation Variance in Health Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

The protection of sensitive individuals within a population dictates that measures other than central tendencies be employed to estimate risk. The refinement of human health risk assessments for chemicals metabolized by the liver to reflect data on human variability can be accom...

Population attributable risk of breast cancer in white women associated with immediately modifiable risk factors

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Glaser Sally L

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Estrogen/progestin replacement therapy (EPRT, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and breast-feeding duration differ from other factors associated with breast cancer in being immediately modifiable by the individual, thereby representing attractive targets for future breast cancer prevention efforts. To justify such efforts, it is vital to quantify the potential population-level impacts on breast cancer considering population variations in behavior prevalence, risk estimate, and baseline incidence. Methods For each of these four factors, we calculated population attributable risk percents (PARs using population-based survey (2001 and cancer registry data (1998–2002 for 41 subpopulations of white, non-Hispanic California women aged 40–79 years, and ranges of relative risk (RR estimates from the literature. Results Using a single RR estimate, subpopulation PARs ranged from 2.5% to 5.6% for hormone use, from 0.0% to 6.1% for recent consumption of >= 2 alcoholic drinks daily, and 4.6% to 11.0% for physical inactivity. Using a range of RR estimates, PARs were 2–11% for EPRT use, 1–20% for alcohol consumption and 2–15% for physical inactivity. Subpopulation data were unavailable for breastfeeding, but PARs using published RR estimates ranged from 2% to 11% for lifetime breastfeeding >= 31 months. Thus, of 13,019 breast cancers diagnosed annually in California, as many as 1,432 attributable to EPRT use, 2,604 attributable to alcohol consumption, 1,953 attributable to physical inactivity, and 1,432 attributable to never breastfeeding might be avoidable. Conclusion The relatively feasible lifestyle changes of discontinuing EPRT use, reducing alcohol consumption, increasing physical activity, and lengthening breastfeeding duration could lower population breast cancer incidence substantially.

Serum organochlorine pesticide residues and risk of testicular germ cell carcinoma: a population-based case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Biggs, Mary L; Davis, Mark D; Eaton, David L; Weiss, Noel S; Barr, Dana B; Doody, David R; Fish, Sherianne; Needham, Larry L; Chen, Chu; Schwartz, Stephen M

2008-08-01

Testicular germ cell carcinoma (TGCC) is the most common malignancy among men ages 20 to 34 years. Although the pathogenesis of TGCC is poorly understood, suboptimal androgen levels or impaired androgen signaling may play a role. Some persistent organochlorine pesticides commonly found in human tissue possess antiandrogenic properties. We examined whether the risk of TGCC is associated with serum levels of 11 organochlorine pesticides, including p,p'-DDE, and whether the p,p'-DDE-TGCC association is modified by CAG or GGN repeat polymorphisms in the androgen receptor gene. We conducted a population-based case-control study among 18- to 44-year-old male residents of three Washington State counties. Cases (n = 246) were diagnosed during 1999 to 2003 with a first, primary TGCC. Controls (n = 630) were men of similar age with no history of TGCC from the same population identified through random-digit telephone dialing. Questionnaires elicited information on demographic, medical, and lifestyle factors. A blood specimen provided serum for gas chromatography-high-resolution mass spectrometry analysis of organochlorine pesticide residues and DNA for genotyping. We observed no clear patterns between TGCC risk and concentrations of any of the organochlorines measured, nor did we observe that the risk associated with p,p'-DDE was modified by androgen receptor CAG ( or =23 repeats) or GGN ( or =17 repeats) genotype. This study does not provide support for the hypothesis that adult exposure to organochlorine pesticides is associated with risk of TGCC. Due to uncertainty regarding how well organochlorine levels measured in adulthood reflect exposures during early life, further research is needed using exposure measurements collected in utero or during infancy.

Reflections from the interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Sargeant, S.

2012-04-01

Scientific understanding of earthquakes and their attendant hazards is vital for the development of effective earthquake risk reduction strategies. Within the global disaster reduction policy framework (the Hyogo Framework for Action, overseen by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), the anticipated role of science and scientists is clear, with respect to risk assessment, loss estimation, space-based observation, early warning and forecasting. The importance of information sharing and cooperation, cross-disciplinary networks and developing technical and institutional capacity for effective disaster management is also highlighted. In practice, the degree to which seismological information is successfully delivered to and applied by individuals, groups or organisations working to manage or reduce the risk from earthquakes is variable. The challenge for scientists is to provide fit-for-purpose information that can be integrated simply into decision-making and risk reduction activities at all levels of governance and at different geographic scales, often by a non-technical audience (i.e. people without any seismological/earthquake engineering training). The interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction (defined here in terms of both the relationship between the science and its application, and the scientist and other risk stakeholders) is complex. This complexity is a function of a range issues that arise relating to communication, multidisciplinary working, politics, organisational practices, inter-organisational collaboration, working practices, sectoral cultures, individual and organisational values, worldviews and expectations. These factors can present significant obstacles to scientific information being incorporated into the decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to present some personal reflections on the nature of the interface between the worlds of seismological research and risk reduction, and the

Occupational risk and chronic kidney disease: a population-based study in the United States adult population.

Science.gov (United States)

Rubinstein, Sofia; Wang, Chengwei; Qu, Wenchun

2013-01-01

Previous studies on occupational risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD) have analyzed a limited range of occupations and focused on nephrotoxins. The primary purpose of this study was to examine the relative risk for the occurrence of CKD between different occupations in the US adult population. This was a population-based survey study of 91,340 participants in the US, who completed the National Health Interview Survey, 2004 through 2008. The outcome variable, CKD, was defined as having weakening/failing kidneys in the past 12 months, as diagnosed by a physician. The predictor variable, occupation, was obtained using the census occupational codes, regrouped according to North American Industrial Classification System. After controlling for age, gender, hypertension, and education, and with the category Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations as a reference group, the likelihood of developing CKD was 4.3 times higher in respondents working in Building, Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations, 4.4 times higher in Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations, 4.7 times higher in Transportation and Material Moving Occupations and in Computer and Mathematical Occupations, 4.8 times higher in Production Occupations, 5.3 times higher in Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations, and 6.1 times higher in Healthcare Support Occupations and in Legal Occupations. This study identified occupation groups in US adult population with increased risk for CKD. Alleviation of workplace stress is suggested as a goal for behavioral intervention in high-risk occupations.

Natural disturbance reduces disease risk in endangered rainforest frog populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Roznik, Elizabeth A; Sapsford, Sarah J; Pike, David A; Schwarzkopf, Lin; Alford, Ross A

2015-08-21

Natural disturbances can drive disease dynamics in animal populations by altering the microclimates experienced by hosts and their pathogens. Many pathogens are highly sensitive to temperature and moisture, and therefore small changes in habitat structure can alter the microclimate in ways that increase or decrease infection prevalence and intensity in host populations. Here we show that a reduction of rainforest canopy cover caused by a severe tropical cyclone decreased the risk of endangered rainforest frogs (Litoria rheocola) becoming infected by a fungal pathogen (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). Reductions in canopy cover increased the temperatures and rates of evaporative water loss in frog microhabitats, which reduced B. dendrobatidis infection risk in frogs by an average of 11-28% in cyclone-damaged areas, relative to unaffected areas. Natural disturbances to the rainforest canopy can therefore provide an immediate benefit to frogs by altering the microclimate in ways that reduce infection risk. This could increase host survival and reduce the probability of epidemic disease outbreaks. For amphibian populations under immediate threat from this pathogen, targeted manipulation of canopy cover could increase the availability of warmer, drier microclimates and therefore tip the balance from host extinction to coexistence.

Epidemiological geomatics in evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan: introducing population weighted raster maps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andersson Neil

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan used population weighted raster maps as an evaluation tool to assess mine education performance, coverage and costs. A stratified last-stage random cluster sample produced representative data on mine risk and exposure to education. Clusters were weighted by the population they represented, rather than the land area. A "friction surface" hooked the population weight into interpolation of cluster-specific indicators. The resulting population weighted raster contours offer a model of the population effects of landmine risks and risk education. Five indicator levels ordered the evidence from simple description of the population-weighted indicators (level 0, through risk analysis (levels 1–3 to modelling programme investment and local variations (level 4. Using graphic overlay techniques, it was possible to metamorphose the map, portraying the prediction of what might happen over time, based on the causality models developed in the epidemiological analysis. Based on a lattice of local site-specific predictions, each cluster being a small universe, the "average" prediction was immediately interpretable without losing the spatial complexity.

Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Amarenco, Pierre; LaRosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J. M.; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; de Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L. J.

2016-01-01

Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and residual

Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Van Der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J G; Kastelein, John J P; Amarenco, Pierre; Larosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J M; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; De Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L J

2016-01-01

Background: Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and

[Evaluation of the nutritional status, insulin resistance and cardiovascular risk in a population of adolescents in the cities of Granada and Almeria (Spain)].

Science.gov (United States)

Montero Alonso, Miguel A; González-Jiménez, Emilio

2013-01-01

The first objective of this study was to evaluate the nutritional status and insulin resistance index in a population of adolescents as calculated by Homeostatic Model Assessment (HOMA). The second objective was to establish correlations between the nutritional status of the subjects, the possible existence of insulin resistance, and the risk of high blood pressure. POPULATION SAMPLE AND METHODOLOGY: The sample was composed of 1001 adolescents, 9-17 years of age, from 18 schools in the provinces of Granada and Almeria. Their nutritional status was determined by means of anthropometric evaluation. For the metabolic study, a blood sample was collected from each subject by venipuncture. An analysis was performed of the basal glucose and insulin levels as well as the Homeostatic Model Assessment- Insulin Resistance (HOMAIR) index. Also evaluated were the levels of glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), serum lipoprotein (a), and non-esterified fatty acids (NEFAs). Insulin resistance was calculated with the formula, proposed by Matthews et al. (1985) : HOMA-IR = (insulin[mmol/L] x glucose[mU/L])/22.5. The evaluation of the nutritional status of the subjects reflected a progressive increase in the values of anthropometric variables as the nutritional status of the subjects worsened. The results of this study showed, regardless of age and gender, 85.01% of the subjects were of normal weight, whereas 9.99% were overweight, and 4.99% were obese. The metabolic study reflected that in comparison to normal-weight and overweight students, obese students had significantly higher serum levels (p < 0,0001) of HbA1c, basal insulin, basal glycemia, basal NEFA, lipoprotein (a), and HOMA-IR. Obesity was found to be a serious health problem in the population of adolescents studied, especially given the high cardiovascular risk that is characteristic of this condition. As reflected in the results of this study, obesity led to the premature development of metabolic disorders, which generally

Vulnerability Risk Index Profile for Elder Abuse in Community-Dwelling Population

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, XinQi; Simon, Melissa A.

2013-01-01

Objectives Elder abuse is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study aims to develop a vulnerability index for elder abuse in a community-dwelling population. Design Population-based study Setting Geographically defined community in Chicago. Participants A population-based study was conducted in Chicago of community-dwelling older adults who participated in the Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP). Of the 8,157 participants in the CHAP study, 213 participants were reported to social services agency for suspected elder abuse. Measurements A vulnerability index for elder abuse was constructed from sociodemographic, health-related, and psychosocial factors. The outcomes of interest were reported and confirmed elder abuse. Logistic regression models were used to determine the accuracy of the index with respect to elder abuse outcomes. Results Out of the selected risk index for elder abuse, every one point increase in the 9 item vulnerability index items, there was a two fold increase in the risk for reported elder abuse (OR, 2.19 (2.00–2.40) and confirmed elder abuse (OR, 2.19 (1.94–2.47). Compared to the reference group, older adults with 3–4 vulnerability index items had increased risk for reported elder abuse (OR, 2.98 (1.98–4.49) and confirmed elder abuse (OR, 3.90, (2.07–7.36); and older adults with 5 or more risk index items, there was an 18 fold increase in risk for reported elder abuse (OR, 18.46 (12.15–28.04) and confirmed elder abuse (OR, 26.79 (14.18–50.61). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) statistically derived curves for identifying reported elder abuse ranged between 0.77–0.84 and for predicting confirmed elder abuse ranged between 0.79–0.86. Conclusion The vulnerability risk index demonstrates value for identifying individuals at risk for elder abuse. Additional studies are needed to validate this index in other community dwelling populations. PMID:25180376

Prioritizing avian species for their risk of population-level consequences from wind energy development

Science.gov (United States)

Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Loss, Scott; Johnson, Douglas H.

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species’ distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species’ conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson’s hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julie A Beston

Full Text Available Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species' distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species' conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson's hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Beston, Julie A; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Loss, Scott R; Johnson, Douglas H

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species' distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species' conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson's hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management

Cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population with use of suPAR, CRP, and Framingham Risk Score

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lyngbæk, Stig; Marott, Jacob L; Sehestedt, Thomas

2013-01-01

for men (p=0.034) and borderline significant for women (p=0.054), while the integrated discrimination improvement was highly significant (P≤0.001) for both genders. CONCLUSIONS: suPAR provides prognostic information of CVD risk beyond FRS and improves risk prediction substantially when combined with CRP...... events were recorded. After adjusting for FRS, women with suPAR levels in the highest tertile had a 1.74-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-2.81, p=0.027) and men a 2.09-fold (95% CI: 1.37-3.18, p20%) risk categories, respectively. This was reflected in a significant improvement of C statistics...

Risk of Dementia Associated with Elevated Plasma Homocysteine in a Latin American Population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Inara J. Chacón

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The relationship between total homocysteine (tHcy and dementia risk remains controversial, as the association varies among populations and dementia subtypes. We studied a Venezuelan population that has high prevalence of both elevated tHcy and dementia. We tested the hypotheses that (1 elevated tHcy is associated with increased dementia risk, (2 the risk is greater for vascular dementia (VaD than for Alzheimer's disease (AD, and (3 a history of stroke may partly explain this association. 2100 participants (≥55 years old of the Maracaibo Aging Study underwent standardized neurological, neuropsychiatric, and cardiovascular assessments. Elevated tHcy was significantly associated with dementia, primarily VaD. When history of stroke and other confounding factors were taken into account, elevated tHcy remained a significant risk factor in older (>66 years, but not in younger (55–66 years subjects. Ongoing studies of this population may provide insight into the mechanism by which tHcy increases risk for dementia.

Area-level poverty and preterm birth risk: A population-based multilevel analysis

Science.gov (United States)

DeFranco, Emily A; Lian, Min; Muglia, Louis A; Schootman, Mario

2008-01-01

Background Preterm birth is a complex disease with etiologic influences from a variety of social, environmental, hormonal, genetic, and other factors. The purpose of this study was to utilize a large population-based birth registry to estimate the independent effect of county-level poverty on preterm birth risk. To accomplish this, we used a multilevel logistic regression approach to account for multiple co-existent individual-level variables and county-level poverty rate. Methods Population-based study utilizing Missouri's birth certificate database (1989–1997). We conducted a multilevel logistic regression analysis to estimate the effect of county-level poverty on PTB risk. Of 634,994 births nested within 115 counties in Missouri, two levels were considered. Individual-level variables included demographics factors, prenatal care, health-related behavioral risk factors, and medical risk factors. The area-level variable included the percentage of the population within each county living below the poverty line (US census data, 1990). Counties were divided into quartiles of poverty; the first quartile (lowest rate of poverty) was the reference group. Results PTB rate of PTB poverty and increased through the 4th quartile (4.9%), p poverty was significantly associated with PTB risk. PTB risk (poverty, adjusted odds ratio (adjOR) 1.18 (95% CI 1.03, 1.35), with a similar effect at earlier gestational ages (birth, above other underlying risk factors. Although the risk increase is modest, it affects a large number of pregnancies. PMID:18793437

[Perception of cardiovascular risk in an outpatient population of the Madrid Community].

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Manchón, D; Álvarez-García, G M; González-López, E

2015-01-01

Cardiovascular diseases are responsible for the largest burden of global mortality. The study of the degree of knowledge of their population risk factors and cardiovascular risk is a priority preventive strategy. A cross-sectional study with 369 people was performed. The sociodemographic variables were cardiovascular risk and perception as well as physical and anthropometric factors. The risk was stratified with the SCORE table. A total of 49.6% were men and 50.4% were women. The proportion of diagnosis was 23.8% in HTA, 39% in hypercholesterolemia, 31.4% in smoking, 26.3% in obesity and 4.6% in diabetes. Concordance between perceived and real cardiovascular risk was very weak. The population has good knowledge about diabetes and acceptable knowledge about hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia but knowledge in prediabetic states and perception of the associated cardiovascular risk is low. Copyright © 2014 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Dietary and lifestyle risk factors for noncommunicable disease among the Mongolian population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bolormaa, Norov; Narantuya, Luvsanbazar; de Courten, Maximilian

2008-01-01

The overall aim is to determine the prevalence of lifestyle related risk factors for noncommunicable disease (NCD) in Mongolia. The prevalence of NCD risk factors was survey in among 15-64 years old population, using the World Health Organization (WHO) STEPwise approach for NCD surveillance...... blood pressure. In regard to body mass index risk categories, 31.6% (+/- 0.1 CI) of the population aged 15-64 years was overweight and obese. The prevalence of people with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and elevated blood cholesterol level were 12.5% (+/- 0.05 CI) and 7.0% (+/- 0.01 CI) among 25...

Quantifying introgression risk with realistic population genetics

OpenAIRE

Ghosh, Atiyo; Meirmans, Patrick G.; Haccou, Patsy

2012-01-01

Introgression is the permanent incorporation of genes from the genome of one population into another. This can have severe consequences, such as extinction of endemic species, or the spread of transgenes. Quantification of the risk of introgression is an important component of genetically modified crop regulation. Most theoretical introgression studies aimed at such quantification disregard one or more of the most important factors concerning introgression: realistic genetical mechanisms, rep...

The Relation between Adolescent Self Assessment of Health and Risk Behaviours: Could a Global Measure of Health Provide Indications of Health Risk Exposures?

Science.gov (United States)

Nkansah-Amankra, Stephen; Walker, Ashley Dawn

2012-01-01

Objective: Self-rated health (SRH) has become a key organizing construct for assessing multiple dimensions of populations' physical and psychosocial health functioning. However, it is unclear how adolescents' subjective self assessment of health reflects health risk exposures, co-occurring health risks (problem behaviours) and other pre-existing…

Occupational risk and chronic kidney disease: a population-based study in the United States adult population

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Rubinstein S

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Sofia Rubinstein,1 Chengwei Wang,1 Wenchun Qu2 1Department of Medicine, Nassau University Medical Center, East Meadow, NY, USA; 2Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA Objective: Previous studies on occupational risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD have analyzed a limited range of occupations and focused on nephrotoxins. The primary purpose of this study was to examine the relative risk for the occurrence of CKD between different occupations in the US adult population. Materials and methods: This was a population-based survey study of 91,340 participants in the US, who completed the National Health Interview Survey, 2004 through 2008. The outcome variable, CKD, was defined as having weakening/failing kidneys in the past 12 months, as diagnosed by a physician. The predictor variable, occupation, was obtained using the census occupational codes, regrouped according to North American Industrial Classification System. Results: After controlling for age, gender, hypertension, and education, and with the category Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations as a reference group, the likelihood of developing CKD was 4.3 times higher in respondents working in Building, Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations, 4.4 times higher in Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations, 4.7 times higher in Transportation and Material Moving Occupations and in Computer and Mathematical Occupations, 4.8 times higher in Production Occupations, 5.3 times higher in Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations, and 6.1 times higher in Healthcare Support Occupations and in Legal Occupations. Conclusion: This study identified occupation groups in US adult population with increased risk for CKD. Alleviation of workplace stress is suggested as a goal for behavioral intervention in high-risk occupations. Keywords: CKD, risk factors, occupations

Cardiovascular risk assessment between urban and rural population in Malaysia.

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Noor Hassim, I; Norazman, M R; Diana, M; Khairul Hazdi, Y; Rosnah, I

2016-12-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) caused significant burden to Malaysia as it accounted for 36% of total deaths. This study aims to evaluate the burden of cardiovascular risk factors among Malaysian adult and assess the difference between urban and rural population in the selected communities. This study is part of the ongoing Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) database, whereby the baseline data were collected since June 2008. CVD risk was measured using INTERHEART risk score which comprised of eleven risk factors i.e. age and gender, family history of heart attack, smoking status, exposure to second hand smoke, diabetes mellitus, hypertension status, waist-hip ratio, self-reported stress, depression, dietary habits and physical activity status. Majority of the studied participants had low cardiovascular risk (57%). Participants from rural area were generally older, had lower educational status, higher prevalence of smokers, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and more likely to be depressed. In comparison, urbanites had lower physical activities and more likely to be stressful. Mean INTERHEART score among rural participants were higher, especially for male, in comparison to urbanite (11.5±5.83 vs. 10.01±5.74, p<0.001). Contradict to common beliefs, participants in rural areas generally have higher cardiovascular risk factors compared to their urban counterparts. The rural population should be targeted for focused preventive interventions, taking account the socioeconomic and cultural context.

Advanced prostate cancer risk in relation to toenail selenium levels

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Geybels, M.S.; Verhage, B.A.J.; Schooten, F.J. van; Goldbohm, A.; Brandt, P.A. van den

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: Selenium may prevent advanced prostate cancer (PCa), but most studies on this topic were conducted in populations with moderate to high selenium status. We investigated the association of toenail selenium, reflecting long-term selenium exposure, and advanced PCa risk in a population from

Sudden infant death syndrome: The risk of infants in Bogotá, Colombia

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María Luisa Latorre-Castro

2016-10-01

Conclusions: The results reflect the risk to which infants are exposed because of wrong practices associated with poor knowledge, and recommendations given, in many cases, by health professionals. Likewise, risk is higher among the poorest population.

LILRA3 Is Associated with Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia Risk in a Chinese Population

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Jielin Sun

2013-04-01

Full Text Available A recent prostate cancer (PCa genome-wide association study (GWAS identified rs103294, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP located on LILRA3, a key component in the regulation of inflammatory inhibition, to be significantly associated with PCa risk in a Chinese population. Because inflammation may be a common etiological risk factor between PCa and benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH, the current study was conducted to investigate the association of rs103294 with BPH risk. rs103294 was genotyped in a Chinese population of 426 BPH cases and 1,008 controls from Xinhua Hospital in Shanghai, China. Association between rs103294, BPH risk and clinicopathological traits were tested with adjustment for age. rs103294 was significantly associated with BPH risk with a p-value of 0.0067. Individuals with risk allele “C” had increased risk for BPH (OR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.09–1.66. Stratified analysis revealed a stronger association risk for younger patients who are below 72 years old (OR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.06–2.16. Our study represents the first effort to demonstrate that LILRA3 gene is significantly associated with BPH risk in a Chinese population. Our results support a common role of inflammation in the development of PCa and BPH. Additional studies are needed to further evaluate our results.

SCK-CEN 2006 barometer on risk perception of the Belgian population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carle, B.

2009-01-01

Starting with 2000, the expert group Society and Policy Support carries out research on various aspects of risk governance. Measuring several risk perception items at regular intervals with the Belgian population is an important part of this research. SCK-CEN has organised a first risk perception barometer in 2002 and a second one in 2006. The 2006 barometer is based on 1063 Computer Assisted Personal Interviews, with a duration of approximately 35 minutes. The large scale of the survey ensures that general trends can be detected and allows specific and detailed analysis on subgroups of the population. Besides the classical background variables used to obtain a sample representative for the Belgian 18+ population (age, language, habitat, gender and social class), several questions were included assessing the sociological context and the psychological personality profile. A series of questions on risk perception, confidence in authorities and specific nuclear topics were repeated in 2006 and constitute a fixed core, allowing comparison over time in Belgium, as well as with the results from the IRSN French barometer. In addition, a number of topics such as acceptance of legal norms and management options for radioactively contaminated milk, energy, nuclear waste and the perception of the Chernobyl accident were covered in detail in the 2006 edition of the SCK-CEN barometer

Sequence variations in DNA repair gene XPC is associated with lung cancer risk in a Chinese population: a case-control study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bai, Yun; Ma, Hongxia; Wang, Ying; Liu, Hongliang; Chen, Weihong; Yang, Lin; Jing, Guangfu; Huo, Xiang; Chen, Feng; Liu, Yanhong; Jin, Li; Xu, Liang; Wei, Qingyi; Huang, Wei; Shen, Hongbing; Lu, Daru; Wu, Tangchun; Yang, Xiaobo; Hu, Zhibin; Yuan, Jing; Wang, Feng; Shao, Minhua; Yuan, Wentao; Qian, Ji

2007-01-01

The nucleotide excision repair (NER) protein, xeroderma pigmentosum C (XPC), participates in recognizing DNA lesions and initiating DNA repair in response to DNA damage. Because mutations in XPC cause a high risk of cancer in XP patients, we hypothesized that inherited sequence variations in XPC may alter DNA repair and thus susceptibility to cancer. In this hospital-based case-control study, we investigated five XPC tagging, common single nucleotide polymorphisms (tagging SNPs) in 1,010 patients with newly diagnosed lung cancer and 1,011 matched cancer free controls in a Chinese population. In individual tagging SNP analysis, we found that rs3731055AG+AA variant genotypes were associated with a significantly decreased risk of lung adenocarcinoma [adjusted odds ratio (OR), 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.56–0.90] but an increased risk of small cell carcinomas [adjusted OR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.05–3.07]. Furthermore, we found that haplotype ACCCA was associated with a decreased risk of lung adenocarcinoma [OR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.62–0.97] but an increased risk of small cell carcinomas [OR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.04–2.71], which reflected the presence of rs3731055A allele in this haplotype. Further stratified analysis revealed that the protective effect of rs3731055AG+AA on risk of lung adenocarcinoma was more evident among young subjects (age ≤ 60) and never smokers. These results suggest that inherited sequence variations in XPC may modulate risk of lung cancer, especially lung adenocarcinoma, in Chinese populations. However, these findings need to be verified in larger confirmatory studies with more comprehensively selected tagging SNPs

Area-level poverty and preterm birth risk: A population-based multilevel analysis

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Muglia Louis A

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Preterm birth is a complex disease with etiologic influences from a variety of social, environmental, hormonal, genetic, and other factors. The purpose of this study was to utilize a large population-based birth registry to estimate the independent effect of county-level poverty on preterm birth risk. To accomplish this, we used a multilevel logistic regression approach to account for multiple co-existent individual-level variables and county-level poverty rate. Methods Population-based study utilizing Missouri's birth certificate database (1989–1997. We conducted a multilevel logistic regression analysis to estimate the effect of county-level poverty on PTB risk. Of 634,994 births nested within 115 counties in Missouri, two levels were considered. Individual-level variables included demographics factors, prenatal care, health-related behavioral risk factors, and medical risk factors. The area-level variable included the percentage of the population within each county living below the poverty line (US census data, 1990. Counties were divided into quartiles of poverty; the first quartile (lowest rate of poverty was the reference group. Results PTB th quartile (4.9%, p adjOR 1.18 (95% CI 1.03, 1.35, with a similar effect at earlier gestational ages (adjOR 1.27 (95% CI 1.06, 1.52. Conclusion Women residing in socioeconomically deprived areas are at increased risk of preterm birth, above other underlying risk factors. Although the risk increase is modest, it affects a large number of pregnancies.

At-risk children's use of reflection and revision in hands-on experimental activities

Science.gov (United States)

Petrosino, Anthony J., Jr.

The goal of this study was to investigate the effects of incorporating opportunities for reflection and revision in hands-on science instruction which emphasized experimentation using model rockets. The participants were low achieving sixth grade summer school students (n = 23) designated as at-risk for school failure by their district. The group was asked a series of interview questions based on work by Schauble et al. (1995) relating to experimentation. The interviews took place over three distinct time points corresponding to a "hands-on only" condition, a "hands-on with reflection and revision" condition and a "hands-on with repeated reflection and revision" condition. A Friedman's Two-Way Analysis of Variance by Ranks indicate students score low at first with traditional hands-on instruction but improve significantly with opportunities to reflect and revise their experiments. In addition, a sociocultural analysis was conducted during the summer school session to assess the model rocket activity as an apprenticeship, as guided participation and as participatory appropriation using a framework established by Rogoff (1994). Finally, a survey (the Classroom Environment Survey) was administered to the students measuring five constructs consistent with a constructivist classroom: participation, autonomy, relevance, commitment to learning and disruptions to learning. Analysis indicate students in the summer school model rocket intervention experienced a greater sense of constructivist principles during the activity than a similar comparison group utilizing reform minded instruction but not including opportunities for reflection and revision cycles. This research provides important evidence that, like scientists, students in school can learn effectively from extended practice in a varied context. Importantly, the data indicate that hands-on instruction is best utilized when opportunities for reflection and revision are made explicit. Implications are discussed related

Extreme lipoprotein(a) levels and risk of myocardial infarction in the general population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kamstrup, Pia R; Benn, Marianne; Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne

2008-01-01

Elevated lipoprotein(a) levels are associated with myocardial infarction (MI) in some but not all studies. Limitations of previous studies include lack of risk estimates for extreme lipoprotein(a) levels, measurements in long-term frozen samples, no correction for regression dilution bias, and lack...... of absolute risk estimates in the general population. We tested the hypothesis that extreme lipoprotein(a) levels predict MI in the general population, measuring levels shortly after sampling, correcting for regression dilution bias, and calculating hazard ratios and absolute risk estimates....

A Population-based survey of risk for cancer in individuals diagnosed with myotonic dystrophy

Science.gov (United States)

Abbott, Diana; Johnson, Nicholas E; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A.

2018-01-01

Introduction The risk of cancer in patients diagnosed with myotonic dystrophy (DM) is reported for the homogeneous Utah population. Methods Clinical data accessed from the largest Utah healthcare providers have been record-linked to the Utah Population Database (UPDB), a population-based resource also linked to the Utah Cancer Registry. Relative risks were estimated for 36 cancers of different types in 281 DM patients. Results Testicular cancer (RR=10.74; 95% CI: 1.91, 38.79), endometrial cancer (6.98; 1.24, 25.22), and Non-Hodgkins lymphoma (4.25; 1.16, 12.43) were all observed at significant excess in DM patients. Discussion This study confirms an overall increased risk of cancer in DM. Individuals diagnosed with DM might benefit from risk counseling. PMID:27064430

Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change.

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Akerlof, Karen L; Delamater, Paul L; Boules, Caroline R; Upperman, Crystal R; Mitchell, Clifford S

2015-12-04

Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change's health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change-due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards-already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents' climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.

Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen L. Akerlof

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change’s health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change—due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards—already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents’ climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126. We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.

Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Akerlof, Karen L.; Delamater, Paul L.; Boules, Caroline R.; Upperman, Crystal R.; Mitchell, Clifford S.

2015-01-01

Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change’s health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change—due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards—already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents’ climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages. PMID:26690184

Whole-exome sequencing implicates DGKH as a risk gene for panic disorder in the Faroese population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gregersen, Noomi; Lescai, Francesco; Liang, Jieqin

2016-01-01

attacks, and genetic factors have been estimated to explain around 40% of the risk. In this study the potential enrichment of PD risk variants was explored based on whole-exome sequencing of 54 patients with PD and 211 control individuals from the Faroese population. No genome-wide significant......The demographic history of the isolated population of the Faroe Islands may have induced enrichment of variants rarely seen in outbred European populations, including enrichment of risk variants for panic disorder (PD). PD is a common mental disorder, characterized by recurring and unprovoked panic...... mental disorders. Additionally, we found an enrichment of PD risk variants in the Faroese population; variants with otherwise low frequency in more outbreed European populations. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc....

Mortality risk factors show similar trends in modern and historic populations exposed to plague.

Science.gov (United States)

Rubini, Mauro; Gualdi-Russo, Emanuela; Manzon, Vanessa S; Rinaldo, Natascia; Bianucci, Raffaella

2016-05-31

Plague has been responsible for two major historic pandemics (6th-8th century CE; 14th-19th century CE) and a modern one. The recent Malagasy plague outbreaks raised new concerns on the deadly potential of the plague-causing bacteria Yersinia pestis. Between September 2014 and April 2015, outbreaks of bubonic and pneumonic plague hit the Malagasy population. Two hundred and sixty-three cases, including 71 deaths, have been reported in 16 different districts with a case fatality rate of 27%. The scope of our study was to ascertain whether the risk factors for health in modern-day populations exposed to plague and in ancient populations that faced the two historic pandemics varied or remained substantially unaltered. The risk of mortality of the Malagasy population with those obtained from the reconstruction of three samples of European populations exposed to the historic pandemics was contrasted. The evidence shows that the risks of death are not uniform across age neither in modern nor in historic populations exposed to plague and shows precise concentrations in specific age groups (children between five and nine years of age and young adults). Although in the post-antibiotic era, the fatality rates have drastically reduced, both modern and historic populations were exposed to the same risk factors that are essentially represented by a low standard of environmental hygiene, poor nutrition, and weak health systems.

Nonfasting Triglycerides and Risk of Ischemic Stroke in the General Population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Freiberg, J.J.; Tybjaerg-Hansen, A.; Jensen, J.S.

2008-01-01

Context The role of triglycerides in the risk of ischemic stroke remains controversial. Recently, a strong association was found between elevated levels of nonfasting triglycerides, which indicate the presence of remnant lipoproteins, and increased risk of ischemic heart disease. Objective To test...... the hypothesis that increased levels of nonfasting triglycerides are associated with ischemic stroke in the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants The Copenhagen City Heart Study, a prospective, Danish population - based cohort study initiated in 1976, with follow- up through July 2007....... Participants were 13 956 men and women aged 20 through 93 years. A cross- sectional study included 9637 individuals attending the 1991- 1994 examination of the prospective study. Main Outcome Measures Prospective study: baseline levels of nonfasting triglycerides, other risk factors at baseline and at follow...

Healthy Food Intake Index (HFII – Validity and reproducibility in a gestational-diabetes-risk population

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Jelena Meinilä

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim was to develop and validate a food-based diet quality index for measuring adherence to the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (NNR in a pregnant population with high risk of gestational diabetes (GDM. Methods This study is a part of the Finnish Gestational Diabetes Prevention Study (RADIEL, a lifestyle intervention conducted between 2008 and 2014. The 443 pregnant participants (61 % of those invited, were either obese or had a history of GDM. Food frequency questionnaires collected at 1st trimester served for composing the HFII; a sum of 11 food groups (available score range 0–17 with higher scores reflecting higher adherence to the NNR. Results The average HFII of the participants was 10.2 (SD 2.8, range 2–17. Factor analysis for the HFII component matrix revealed three factors that explained most of the distribution (59 % of the HFII. As an evidence of the component relevance 9 out of 11 of the HFII components independently contributed to the total score (item-rest correlation coefficients <0.31. Saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, sucrose, and fiber intakes (among other nutrients showed linearity across the HFII categories (P ≤ 0.030 for all nutrients tested; the higher the HFII, the closer the nutrient intake to the recommended intake level. Educational attainment (P = 0.0045, BMI (P = 0.0098, smoking (P = 0.007, and leisure time physical exercise (P = 0.038 showed linearity across the HFII categories. Intra-class correlation coefficient for the HFII was 0.85 (CI 0.79, 0.90. Conclusions The HFII components reflect the food guidelines of the NNR, intakes of relevant nutrients, and characteristics known to vary with diet quality. It largely ignores energy intake, its components have independent contribution to the HFII, and it exhibits reproducibility. The main shortcomings are absence of red and processed meat component, and the validation in a

Using dynamic stochastic modelling to estimate population risk factors in infectious disease: the example of FIV in 15 cat populations.

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David Fouchet

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. CONCLUSION: Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease.

Some reflections on anthropology of the risk of radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Nuffelen, D.

1996-01-01

Since any scientific result is, in the view of K. Popper, nothing else but a provisional truth, it is idle and unintelligent to claim than any given model is the best. It is true that some models are closer to reality than others, mainly because they are not sectarian, and as they are open to this reality which always partly escapes us, they reflect it better despite their implacable weaknesses. Man has to face the reality that involves radiological risk. The scientific study of man, anthropology, cannot confine it to a reductive and unilateral paradigm. Rather than taking the easy and wrong way by reducing man's part solely to the answers to an artificial questionnaire, social scientists have to question man's condition; and the human condition cannot be brought into scale. This paper examines these problems through the way various human groups define and treat the nuclear dangers. (author)

Environmental and societal influences acting on cardiovascular risk factors and disease at a population level: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Chow, Clara Kayei; Lock, Karen; Teo, Koon; Subramanian, S V; McKee, Martin; Yusuf, Salim

2009-12-01

It has long been known that cardiovascular disease (CVD) rates vary considerably among populations, across space and through time. It is now apparent that most of the attributable risk for myocardial infarction 'within' populations from across the world can be ascribed to the varying levels of a limited number of risk factors among individuals in a population. Individual risk factors (e.g. blood pressure) can be modified with resulting health gains. Yet, the persistence of large international variations in cardiovascular risk factors and resulting CVD incidence and mortality indicates that there are additional factors that apply to 'populations' that are important to understand as part of a comprehensive approach to CVD control. This article reviews the evidence on why certain populations are more at risk than others.

Extinction Risk of Pseudotsuga Menziesii Populations in the Central Region of Mexico: An AHP Analysis

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Javier López-Upton

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Within the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP framework, a hierarchical model was created considering anthropogenic, genetic and ecological criteria and sub-criteria that directly affect Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb. risk of extinction in central Mexico. The sub-criteria values were standardized, weighted, and ordered by importance in a pairwise comparison matrix; the model was mathematically integrated to quantify the degree of extinction risk for each of the 29 populations present in the study area. The results indicate diverse levels of risk for the populations, ranging from very low to very high. Estanzuela, Presa Jaramillo, Peñas Cargadas and Plan del Baile populations have very low risk, with values less than 0.25. On the other hand, Vicente Guerrero, Morán, Minatitlán, La Garita and Tonalapa populations have very high risk (>0.35 because they are heavily influenced by anthropogenic (close to roads and towns, ecological (presence of exotic species and little or no natural regeneration and genetic (presence of mature to overmature trees and geographic isolation factors. In situ conservation activities, prioritizing their implementation in populations at most risk is highly recommended; in addition, germplasm collection for use of assisted gene flow and migration approaches, including artificial reforestation, should be considered in these locations.

Population impact of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia: a nationwide study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sørensen, Holger J; Nielsen, Philip R; Pedersen, Carsten B; Benros, Michael E; Nordentoft, Merete; Mortensen, Preben B

2014-03-01

Although several studies have examined the relative contributions of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia, few have additionally examined the predictive power on the individual level and simultaneously examined the population impact associated with a wide range of familial and environmental risk factors. The authors present rate ratios (IRR), population-attributable risks (PAR) and sex-specific cumulative incidences of the following risk factors: parental history of mental illness, urban place of birth, advanced paternal age, parental loss and immigration status. We established a population-based cohort of 2,486,646million persons born in Denmark between 1 January 1955 and 31 December 1993 using Danish registers. We found that PAR associated with urban birth was 11.73%; PAR associated with one, respectively 2, parent(s) with schizophrenia was 2.67% and 0.12%. PAR associated with second-generation immigration was 0.70%. Highest cumulative incidence (CI=20.23%; 95% CI=18.10-22.62) was found in male offspring of 2 parents with schizophrenia. Cumulative incidences for male offspring or female offspring of a parent with schizophrenia were 9.53% (95% CI=7.71-11.79), and 4.89%, (95% CI 4.50-5.31). The study showed that risk factors with highest predictive power on the individual level have a relatively low population impact. The challenge in future studies with direct genetic data is to examine gene-environmental interactions that can move research beyond current approaches and seek to achieve higher predictive power on the individual level and higher population impact. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer: A Swedish population-based cohort study of competing risks and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Science.gov (United States)

Häggström, Christel; Van Hemelrijck, Mieke; Garmo, Hans; Robinson, David; Stattin, Pär; Rowley, Mark; Coolen, Anthony C C; Holmberg, Lars

2018-05-09

Most previous studies of prostate cancer have not taken into account that men in the studied populations are also at risk of competing event, and that these men may have different susceptibility to prostate cancer risk. The aim of this study was to investigate heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer, using a recently developed latent class regression method for competing risks. We further aimed to elucidate the association between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and prostate cancer risk, and to compare the results with conventional methods for survival analysis. We analysed the risk of prostate cancer in 126,482 men from the comparison cohort of the Prostate Cancer Data base Sweden (PCBaSe) 3.0. During a mean follow-up of 6 years 6,036 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer and 22,393 men died. We detected heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer with two distinct latent classes in the study population. The smaller class included 9% of the study population in which men had a higher risk of prostate cancer and the risk was stronger associated with class membership than any of the covariates included in the study. Moreover, we found no association between T2DM and risk of prostate cancer after removal of the effect of informative censoring due to competing risks. The recently developed latent class for competing risks method could be used to provide new insights in precision medicine with the target to classify individuals regarding different susceptibility to a particular disease, reaction to a risk factor or response to treatment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 UICC.

Infective Endocarditis and Cancer Risk: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Li-Min; Wu, Jung-Nan; Lin, Cheng-Li; Day, Jen-Der; Liang, Ji-An; Liou, Li-Ren; Kao, Chia-Hung

2016-03-01

This study investigated the possible relationship between endocarditis and overall and individual cancer risk among study participants in Taiwan.We used data from the National Health Insurance program of Taiwan to conduct a population-based, observational, and retrospective cohort study. The case group consisted of 14,534 patients who were diagnosed with endocarditis between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010. For the control group, 4 patients without endocarditis were frequency matched to each endocarditis patient according to age, sex, and index year. Competing risks regression analysis was conducted to determine the effect of endocarditis on cancer risk.A large difference was noted in Charlson comorbidity index between endocarditis and nonendocarditis patients. In patients with endocarditis, the risk for developing overall cancer was significant and 119% higher than in patients without endocarditis (adjusted subhazard ratio = 2.19, 95% confidence interval = 1.98-2.42). Regarding individual cancers, in addition to head and neck, uterus, female breast and hematological malignancies, the risks of developing colorectal cancer, and some digestive tract cancers were significantly higher. Additional analyses determined that the association of cancer with endocarditis is stronger within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis.This population-based cohort study found that patients with endocarditis are at a higher risk for colorectal cancer and other cancers in Taiwan. The risk was even higher within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis. It suggested that endocarditis is an early marker of colorectal cancer and other cancers. The underlying mechanisms must still be explored and may account for a shared risk factor of infection in both endocarditis and malignancy.

Risk perception among women receiving genetic counseling: a population-based follow-up study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikkelsen, Ellen M; Sunde, Lone; Johansen, Christoffer

2007-01-01

-up study of 213 women who received genetic counseling for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer, 319 women who underwent mammography (Reference Group I), and a random sample of 1070 women from the general population (Reference Group II). RESULTS: Women who received genetic counseling decreased...... counseling, compared to a reduction of 5% (p=0.03) and 2% (p=0.01) in Reference Groups I and II, respectively. Risk communicated only in words, inaccurate risk perception at baseline, and presence of a familial mutation appeared to be predictors of inaccurate risk perception 12 months after counseling......BACKGROUND: We aimed to explore the impact of genetic counseling on perceived personal lifetime risk of breast cancer, the accuracy of risk perception, and possible predictors of inaccurate risk perception 1 year following counseling. METHODS: We conducted a population-based prospective follow...

Tobacco addiction in the psychiatric population and in the general population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renata Marques de Oliveira

2017-12-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To estimate the degree of tobacco addiction and identify independently associated factors by comparing the psychiatric population of secondary and tertiary care with the general population of the primary healthcare network. Method: This is a cross-sectional epidemiological study, conducted in a municipality of São Paulo, with 134 smokers of a Mental Health Outpatient Unit (MHOU, a Psychiatric Hospital (PH, and a Primary Healthcare Unit (PHU. Data were collected by means of individual interviews, recorded on a mobile device. Data were statistically processed using Stata/12 Results: Of the 134 participants, 54.5% were women. While 49.1% of the psychiatric population (MHOU/PH had medium/high nicotine addiction, 58.3% of smokers of the general population had very low/low dependency. The Poisson regression model indicated a higher prevalence of smokers with high dependence among men (PR = 1.41, people aged 49 years or less (15 - 29 years, PR = 4.06, 30 - 39 PR = 2.96 years, 40 - 49 years PR = 1.84, with severe mental disorders (PR = 3.05, with anxiety disorders/other (PR = 3.98, and with high suicide risk (PR = 1.55. Conclusion: Nicotine dependence was greater in the psychiatric population than in the general population. The independent factors associated with severe dependence were sex, age group, diagnosis, and current risk of suicide. These results trigger reflection among nurses on the need to focus more attention on a neglected subject in mental health services.

Risk of cancer among HIV-infected individuals compared to the background population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Helleberg, Marie; Gerstoft, Jan; Afzal, Shoaib

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: The relative impact of immune deficiency and lifestyle-related factors on risk of cancer in the HIV-infected population is controversial. We aimed to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with smoking, being HIV-infected and with immune deficiency. METHODS...... of cancer associated with smoking and with being HIV-infected were 27 and 49%, respectively. For cancers not strongly related to smoking or viral infections, the PAFs associated with being HIV-infected and with immune deficiency were 0%. CONCLUSION: The risk of cancer is increased in HIV patients compared......: In a Danish, nationwide, population-based cohort study (1995-2011), incidences of cancer were compared between an HIV-infected cohort and a population-based matched cohort in analyses stratified on cancer category, smoking status and for HIV patients: low CD4 cell count. RESULTS: We included 3503 HIV patients...

Selenium status and risk of prostate cancer in a Danish population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Outzen, Malene; Tjønneland, Anne; Larsen, Erik Huusfeldt

2016-01-01

Low-Se status may be associated with a higher risk of notably advanced prostate cancer. In a Danish population with a relatively low Se intake, we investigated the association between pre-diagnostic Se status and (1) the risk of total, advanced and high-grade prostate cancer and (2) all-cause and...

Sun-protective behaviors in populations at high risk for skin cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Diao, Diana Y; Lee, Tim K

2014-01-01

Over 3 million new cases of skin cancer are diagnosed in the US annually. Melanoma, a subtype of skin cancer that can be fatal if the disease is not detected and treated at an early stage, is the most common cancer for those aged 25–29 years and the second most common cancer in adolescents and young adults aged 15–29 years. The primary carcinogen for the genesis of skin cancers is ultraviolet light from solar radiation and tanning beds. In spite of massive health campaigns to raise public awareness on ultraviolet radiation, sun-protective practices still fall behind. A plausible explanation is the lack of behavioral change in the populations at risk; in this review article, we examine sun-protective behavior in the four high-risk skin cancer groups: skin cancer survivors, individuals with a family history of melanoma, individuals with physical characteristics associated with skin cancer risk, and organ transplantation patients. Findings in the literature demonstrate that increased knowledge and awareness does not consequently translate into behavioral changes in practice. Behavior can differ as a result of different attitudes and beliefs, depending on the population at risk. Thus, intervention should be tailored to the population targeted. A multidisciplinary health team providing consultation and education is required to influence these much needed changes. PMID:24379732

Lifestyle modifies obesity-associated risk of cardiovascular disease in a genetically homogeneous population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Marit E; Borch-Johnsen, Knut; Bjerregaard, Peter

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND: The association between obesity and cardiovascular disease risk differs across populations. Whether such differences in obesity-related risk factors exist within population groups of the same genetic origin but with differences in lifestyle remains to be determined. OBJECTIVE: The aim...... was to analyze whether obesity was associated with the same degree of metabolic disturbances in 2 groups of genetically homogeneous Inuit who were exposed to considerable differences in lifestyle. DESIGN: We studied obesity and cardiovascular disease risk factors in a cross-sectional population survey of 2311...... Inuit living in Denmark (n = 995) or Greenland (n = 1316). The participants received an oral-glucose-tolerance test. Blood tests were supplemented by structured interviews and anthropometric and blood pressure measurements. RESULTS: The trend in the association between obesity and metabolic effects...

Cardiovascular Disease Risk in a Large, Population-Based Cohort of Breast Cancer Survivors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boekel, Naomi B.; Schaapveld, Michael; Gietema, Jourik A.; Russell, Nicola S.; Poortmans, Philip; Theuws, Jacqueline C.M.; Schinagl, Dominic A.X.; Rietveld, Derek H.F.; Versteegh, Michel I.M.; Visser, Otto; Rutgers, Emiel J.T.; Aleman, Berthe M.P.; Leeuwen, Flora E. van

2016-01-01

Purpose: To conduct a large, population-based study on cardiovascular disease (CVD) in breast cancer (BC) survivors treated in 1989 or later. Methods and Materials: A large, population-based cohort comprising 70,230 surgically treated stage I to III BC patients diagnosed before age 75 years between 1989 and 2005 was linked with population-based registries for CVD. Cardiovascular disease risks were compared with the general population, and within the cohort using competing risk analyses. Results: Compared with the general Dutch population, BC patients had a slightly lower CVD mortality risk (standardized mortality ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88-0.97). Only death due to valvular heart disease was more frequent (standardized mortality ratio 1.28, 95% CI 1.08-1.52). Left-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy increased the risk of any cardiovascular event compared with both surgery alone (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) 1.23, 95% CI 1.11-1.36) and right-sided radiation therapy (sHR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.36). Radiation-associated risks were found for not only ischemic heart disease, but also for valvular heart disease and congestive heart failure (CHF). Risks were more pronounced in patients aged <50 years at BC diagnosis (sHR 1.48, 95% CI 1.07-2.04 for left- vs right-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy). Left- versus right-sided radiation therapy after wide local excision did not increase the risk of all CVD combined, yet an increased ischemic heart disease risk was found (sHR 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.28). Analyses including detailed radiation therapy information showed an increased CVD risk for left-sided chest wall irradiation alone, left-sided breast irradiation alone, and internal mammary chain field irradiation, all compared with right-sided breast irradiation alone. Compared with patients not treated with chemotherapy, chemotherapy used ≥1997 (ie, anthracyline-based chemotherapy) increased the risk of CHF (sHR 1.35, 95% CI 1

Cardiovascular Disease Risk in a Large, Population-Based Cohort of Breast Cancer Survivors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boekel, Naomi B.; Schaapveld, Michael [Epidemiology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Gietema, Jourik A. [Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Russell, Nicola S. [Radiation Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Poortmans, Philip [Radiation Oncology, Institute Verbeeten, Tilburg (Netherlands); Radiation Oncology, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Theuws, Jacqueline C.M. [Radiotherapy, Catharina Hospital Eindhoven, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Schinagl, Dominic A.X. [Radiation Oncology, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Rietveld, Derek H.F. [Radiation Oncology, VU University Medical Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Versteegh, Michel I.M. [Steering Committee Cardiac Interventions Netherlands, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden (Netherlands); Visser, Otto [Registration and Research, Comprehensive Cancer Center The Netherlands, Utrecht (Netherlands); Rutgers, Emiel J.T. [Surgery, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Aleman, Berthe M.P. [Radiation Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Leeuwen, Flora E. van, E-mail: f.v.leeuwen@nki.nl [Epidemiology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2016-04-01

Purpose: To conduct a large, population-based study on cardiovascular disease (CVD) in breast cancer (BC) survivors treated in 1989 or later. Methods and Materials: A large, population-based cohort comprising 70,230 surgically treated stage I to III BC patients diagnosed before age 75 years between 1989 and 2005 was linked with population-based registries for CVD. Cardiovascular disease risks were compared with the general population, and within the cohort using competing risk analyses. Results: Compared with the general Dutch population, BC patients had a slightly lower CVD mortality risk (standardized mortality ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88-0.97). Only death due to valvular heart disease was more frequent (standardized mortality ratio 1.28, 95% CI 1.08-1.52). Left-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy increased the risk of any cardiovascular event compared with both surgery alone (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) 1.23, 95% CI 1.11-1.36) and right-sided radiation therapy (sHR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.36). Radiation-associated risks were found for not only ischemic heart disease, but also for valvular heart disease and congestive heart failure (CHF). Risks were more pronounced in patients aged <50 years at BC diagnosis (sHR 1.48, 95% CI 1.07-2.04 for left- vs right-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy). Left- versus right-sided radiation therapy after wide local excision did not increase the risk of all CVD combined, yet an increased ischemic heart disease risk was found (sHR 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.28). Analyses including detailed radiation therapy information showed an increased CVD risk for left-sided chest wall irradiation alone, left-sided breast irradiation alone, and internal mammary chain field irradiation, all compared with right-sided breast irradiation alone. Compared with patients not treated with chemotherapy, chemotherapy used ≥1997 (ie, anthracyline-based chemotherapy) increased the risk of CHF (sHR 1.35, 95% CI 1

Sun-protective behaviors in populations at high risk for skin cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diao DY

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Diana Y Diao,1 Tim K Lee1,21Department of Dermatology and Skin Science, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; 2Cancer Control Research Program, BC Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia, CanadaAbstract: Over 3 million new cases of skin cancer are diagnosed in the US annually. Melanoma, a subtype of skin cancer that can be fatal if the disease is not detected and treated at an early stage, is the most common cancer for those aged 25–29 years and the second most common cancer in adolescents and young adults aged 15–29 years. The primary carcinogen for the genesis of skin cancers is ultraviolet light from solar radiation and tanning beds. In spite of massive health campaigns to raise public awareness on ultraviolet radiation, sun-protective practices still fall behind. A plausible explanation is the lack of behavioral change in the populations at risk; in this review article, we examine sun-protective behavior in the four high-risk skin cancer groups: skin cancer survivors, individuals with a family history of melanoma, individuals with physical characteristics associated with skin cancer risk, and organ transplantation patients. Findings in the literature demonstrate that increased knowledge and awareness does not consequently translate into behavioral changes in practice. Behavior can differ as a result of different attitudes and beliefs, depending on the population at risk. Thus, intervention should be tailored to the population targeted. A multidisciplinary health team providing consultation and education is required to influence these much needed changes.Keywords: skin cancer, melanoma, risk, prevention, behaviour

Identification of target risk groups for population-based Clostridium difficile infection prevention strategies using a population attributable risk approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Sung-Hee; Kang, Hye-Young

2018-01-01

We aimed to determine risk factors associated with Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and assess the contributions of these factors on CDI burden. We conducted a 1:4 matched case-control study using a national claims dataset. Cases were incident CDI without a history of CDI in the previous 84 days, and were age- and sex-matched with control patients. We ascertained exposure, defined as a history of morbidities and drug use within 90 days. The population attributable risk (PAR) percent for risk factors was estimated using odds ratios (ORs) obtained from the case-control study. Overall, the strongest CDI-associated risk factors, which have significant contributions to the CDI burden as well, were the experience of gastroenteritis (OR=5.08, PAR%=17.09%) and use of antibiotics (OR=1.69, PAR%=19.00%), followed by the experiences of female pelvic infection, irritable bowel syndrome, inflammatory bowel disease, and pneumonia, and use of proton-pump inhibitors (OR=1.52-2.37, PAR%=1.95-2.90). The control of risk factors that had strong association with CDI and affected large proportions of total CDI cases would be beneficial for CDI prevention. We suggest performing CDI testing for symptomatic patients with gastroenteritis and implementing antibiotics stewardship. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Electromagnetic fields and safety : information and risk perception in Spanish population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fernandez, A.; Guillen, V.

2005-01-01

There is a lack of knowledge about both the information the general population in Spain has on electromagnetic fields (EMF) and the public risk perception regarding the exposure to non-ionizing EMF emitting sources. The aims of the present preliminary survey were to assess what the Spanish population knew about EMF, to explore their health risk perception associated with the exposure to commonly used sources of non-ionizing radiation; and to know their risk perception regarding cell towers. A total number of 801 adult participants, randomly selected answered a telephone interview based on a 13-item semi-structured questionnaire. Sixty-nine per cent of the interviewees reported having no knowledge about electromagnetic fields. Up to 88.9% mentioned to have a little or no information at all on the health effects of EMF. Comparing risk perception regarding several commonly used devices, mobile telephones and microwave ovens were associated with a higher heath risk than TV and computers. Of those who believed that the devices mentioned were linked with health problems, 40.7% associated them with cancer. Regarding base stations, 52.1% of the sample envisioned such sources as a health risk, and of those who believed so, the majority linked the proximity of base stations with cancer. Gender differences were observed in risk perception. (Author) 16 refs

Antidepressant sales and the risk for alcohol-related and non-alcohol-related suicide in Finland--an individual-level population study.

Science.gov (United States)

Moustgaard, Heta; Joutsenniemi, Kaisla; Myrskylä, Mikko; Martikainen, Pekka

2014-01-01

A marked decline in suicide rates has co-occurred with increased antidepressant sales in several countries but the causal connection between the trends remains debated. Most previous studies have focused on overall suicide rates and neglected differential effects in population subgroups. Our objective was to investigate whether increasing sales of non-tricyclic antidepressants have reduced alcohol- and non-alcohol-related suicide risk in different population subgroups. We followed a nationally representative sample of 950,158 Finnish adults in 1995-2007 for alcohol-related (n = 2,859) and non-alcohol-related (n = 8,632) suicides. We assessed suicide risk by gender and social group according to regional sales of non-tricyclic antidepressants, measured by sold doses per capita, prevalence of antidepressant users, and proportion of antidepressant users with doses reflecting minimally adequate treatment. Fixed-effects Poisson regression models controlled for regional differences and time trends that may influence suicide risk irrespective of antidepressant sales. The number of sold antidepressant doses per capita and the prevalence of antidepressant users were unrelated to male suicide risk. However, one percentage point increase in the proportion of antidepressant users receiving minimally adequate treatment reduced non-alcohol-related male suicide risk by one percent (relative risk 0.987, 95% confidence interval 0.976-0.998). This beneficial effect only emerged among men with high education, high income, and employment, among men without a partner, and men not owning their home. Alcohol-related suicides and female suicides were unrelated to all measures of antidepressant sales. We found little evidence that increase in overall sales or in the prevalence of non-tricyclic antidepressant users would have caused the fall in suicide rates in Finland in 1995-2007. However, the rise in the proportion of antidepressant users receiving minimally adequate treatment, possibly

Validation of a risk prediction model for Barrett's esophagus in an Australian population.

Science.gov (United States)

Ireland, Colin J; Gordon, Andrea L; Thompson, Sarah K; Watson, David I; Whiteman, David C; Reed, Richard L; Esterman, Adrian

2018-01-01

Esophageal adenocarcinoma is a disease that has a high mortality rate, the only known precursor being Barrett's esophagus (BE). While screening for BE is not cost-effective at the population level, targeted screening might be beneficial. We have developed a risk prediction model to identify people with BE, and here we present the external validation of this model. A cohort study was undertaken to validate a risk prediction model for BE. Individuals with endoscopy and histopathology proven BE completed a questionnaire containing variables previously identified as risk factors for this condition. Their responses were combined with data from a population sample for analysis. Risk scores were derived for each participant. Overall performance of the risk prediction model in terms of calibration and discrimination was assessed. Scores from 95 individuals with BE and 636 individuals from the general population were analyzed. The Brier score was 0.118, suggesting reasonable overall performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78-0.87). The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was p =0.14. Minimizing false positives and false negatives, the model achieved a sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 73%. This study has validated a risk prediction model for BE that has a higher sensitivity than previous models.

The Effects of Framing, Reflection, Probability, and Payoff on Risk Preference in Choice Tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Kühberger; Schulte-Mecklenbeck; Perner

1999-06-01

A meta-analysis of Asian-disease-like studies is presented to identify the factors which determine risk preference. First the confoundings between probability levels, payoffs, and framing conditions are clarified in a task analysis. Then the role of framing, reflection, probability, type, and size of payoff is evaluated in a meta-analysis. It is shown that bidirectional framing effects exist for gains and for losses. Presenting outcomes as gains tends to induce risk aversion, while presenting outcomes as losses tends to induce risk seeking. Risk preference is also shown to depend on the size of the payoffs, on the probability levels, and on the type of good at stake (money/property vs human lives). In general, higher payoffs lead to increasing risk aversion. Higher probabilities lead to increasing risk aversion for gains and to increasing risk seeking for losses. These findings are confirmed by a subsequent empirical test. Shortcomings of existing formal theories, such as prospect theory, cumulative prospect theory, venture theory, and Markowitz's utility theory, are identified. It is shown that it is not probabilities or payoffs, but the framing condition, which explains most variance. These findings are interpreted as showing that no linear combination of formally relevant predictors is sufficient to capture the essence of the framing phenomenon. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Risk factors for child maltreatment in an Australian population-based birth cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Doidge, James C; Higgins, Daryl J; Delfabbro, Paul; Segal, Leonie

2017-02-01

Child maltreatment and other adverse childhood experiences adversely influence population health and socioeconomic outcomes. Knowledge of the risk factors for child maltreatment can be used to identify children at risk and may represent opportunities for prevention. We examined a range of possible child, parent and family risk factors for child maltreatment in a prospective 27-year population-based birth cohort of 2443 Australians. Physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, neglect and witnessing of domestic violence were recorded retrospectively in early adulthood. Potential risk factors were collected prospectively during childhood or reported retrospectively. Associations were estimated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions and combined into cumulative risk scores. Higher levels of economic disadvantage, poor parental mental health and substance use, and social instability were strongly associated with increased risk of child maltreatment. Indicators of child health displayed mixed associations and infant temperament was uncorrelated to maltreatment. Some differences were observed across types of maltreatment but risk profiles were generally similar. In multivariate analyses, nine independent risk factors were identified, including some that are potentially modifiable: economic disadvantage and parental substance use problems. Risk of maltreatment increased exponentially with the number of risk factors experienced, with prevalence of maltreatment in the highest risk groups exceeding 80%. A cumulative risk score based on the independent risk factors allowed identification of individuals at very high risk of maltreatment, while a score that incorporated all significant risk and protective factors provided better identification of low-risk individuals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social demand in environment matter and risks management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pages, J.P.; Marty, D.

1993-01-01

The importance of a pollution or a risk does not come from only technical measures: it is the effect of exchange between economical interests or authority and populations. One risk is a reflection, at a period, of the society in which we live and forces which compose it. So what people ask about pollution, risks, harm, is not only a demand and that is the purpose of this article

Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille

2011-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...

Hyperlipemia in a population of aged donkeys: description, prevalence, and potential risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Burden, F A; Du Toit, N; Hazell-Smith, E; Trawford, A F

2011-01-01

Hyperlipemia is a common disorder of the donkey, with mortality rates of up to 80% reported. Such a poor prognosis makes prevention of this disorder or amelioration in the early stages crucial. The objective of this study was to describe and determine the prevalence of hyperlipemia in a population of donkeys and to determine risk factors for development of the disease. A total of 449 cases were investigated from a population of 3829 donkeys; donkeys were resident at The Donkey Sanctuary, a charity providing refuge for unwanted donkeys in the UK. Animals were selected on the basis of presence of clinical disease. A retrospective case-control study design was used, and all donkeys presenting with hyperlipemia over a 4-year period were included. Each case was matched with 2 controls that had not suffered from hyperlipemia in the previous month. Multivariable analysis was carried out to determine risk factors. A total of 449 clinical cases of hyperlipemia were reported with an associated mortality rate of 48.5%. Concurrent disease was present in 72% of donkeys and was the greatest risk factor (OR = 76.98); others included cardboard bedding (OR = 3.86), movement (OR = 3.94), weight loss (OR = 6.4), dental disease (OR = 1.73), and concentrate feeding (OR = 1.87). This study shows that this population of donkeys in the UK often develops hyperlipemia, particularly in response to stress or primary illness, and provides useful insights in to health and management risk factors that may be addressed to decrease the risk of hyperlipemia both in the study population and in other similar donkey populations. Copyright © 2011 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Calculation of the quantities of radiation risk in Japanese population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakamura, Yuji

1993-01-01

The purpose of this study was to reevaluate various kinds of indicators of radiation risks using additive projection and multiplicative projection models, as proposed by ICRP. Total death probability rate (1985) and probability rate of cancer death (1983 to 1987) were used as data base. The following indicators were calculated: total conditional death probability rate and conditional death probability rate; normalized death age probability density and unconditional death probability rate; attributable life-time probability of cancer death; and other risk indicators, including mean loss of life expectancy, reduction of life expectancy, mean annually committed probability of attributable cancer deaths, annual extra probability of cancer death, probability density of the age of death, maximum relative death probability rate (age at maximum relative rate), and probabilistic aging. In terms of calculations of these risk indicators for the comprehensive cancer death, there was no great difference between the Japanese population and ICRP. When calculating according to sites of cancer, calculations of indicators for cancer mortality (or cancer cure rate) in the Japanese population might bedifferent from ICRP's calculation. (N.K.) different from ICRP's calculations. (N.K.)

Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in an Aging HIV Population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martin-Iguacel, R; Llibre, J M; Friis-Moller, N

2015-01-01

With more effective and widespread antiretroviral treatment, the overall incidence of AIDS- or HIV-related death has decreased dramatically. Consequently, as patients are aging, cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the HIV population....... The incidence of CVD overall in HIV is relatively low, but it is approximately 1.5-2-fold higher than that seen in age-matched HIV-uninfected individuals. Multiple factors are believed to explain this excess in risk such as overrepresentation of traditional cardiovascular risk factors (particularly smoking...

Circulating CD34+ progenitor cells and risk of mortality in a population with coronary artery disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Riyaz S; Li, Qunna; Ghasemzadeh, Nima; Eapen, Danny J; Moss, Lauren D; Janjua, A Umair; Manocha, Pankaj; Kassem, Hatem Al; Veledar, Emir; Samady, Habib; Taylor, W Robert; Zafari, A Maziar; Sperling, Laurence; Vaccarino, Viola; Waller, Edmund K; Quyyumi, Arshed A

2015-01-16

Low circulating progenitor cell numbers and activity may reflect impaired intrinsic regenerative/reparative potential, but it remains uncertain whether this translates into a worse prognosis. To investigate whether low numbers of progenitor cells associate with a greater risk of mortality in a population at high cardiovascular risk. Patients undergoing coronary angiography were recruited into 2 cohorts (1, n=502 and 2, n=403) over separate time periods. Progenitor cells were enumerated by flow cytometry as CD45(med+) blood mononuclear cells expressing CD34, with additional quantification of subsets coexpressing CD133, vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2, and chemokine (C-X-C motif) receptor 4. Coefficient of variation for CD34 cells was 2.9% and 4.8%, 21.6% and 6.5% for the respective subsets. Each cohort was followed for a mean of 2.7 and 1.2 years, respectively, for the primary end point of all-cause death. There was an inverse association between CD34(+) and CD34(+)/CD133(+) cell counts and risk of death in cohort 1 (β=-0.92, P=0.043 and β=-1.64, P=0.019, respectively) that was confirmed in cohort 2 (β=-1.25, P=0.020 and β=-1.81, P=0.015, respectively). Covariate-adjusted hazard ratios in the pooled cohort (n=905) were 3.54 (1.67-7.50) and 2.46 (1.18-5.13), respectively. CD34(+)/CD133(+) cell counts improved risk prediction metrics beyond standard risk factors. Reduced circulating progenitor cell counts, identified primarily as CD34(+) mononuclear cells or its subset expressing CD133, are associated with risk of death in individuals with coronary artery disease, suggesting that impaired endogenous regenerative capacity is associated with increased mortality. These findings have implications for biological understanding, risk prediction, and cell selection for cell-based therapies. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT): study protocol for a predictive algorithm assessing dementia risk in the community

OpenAIRE

Fisher, Stacey; Hsu, Amy; Mojaverian, Nassim; Taljaard, Monica; Huyer, Gregory; Manuel, Douglas G; Tanuseputro, Peter

2017-01-01

Introduction The burden of disease from dementia is a growing global concern as incidence increases dramatically with age, and average life expectancy has been increasing around the world. Planning for an ageing population requires reliable projections of dementia prevalence; however, existing population projections are simple and have poor predictive accuracy. The Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT) will predict incidence of dementia in the population setting using multivariable modellin...

Predicting Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Population-Based Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahmut Kilic

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Aim: One of the major risk factors that can cause death in the world is also type-2 diabetes mellitus (DM. Turkey does not have a vehicle in the society has been formulate predicting the risk of developing DM. The purpose of this study is to determine the level of DM risk in Turkish society using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC tool. Material and Method: This is a cross-sectional study. The data has been obtained from %u201Cbehavioral risk factors for chronic diseases study%u201D that was made in the province of Yozgat, in 2011. The study population included 825 subjects between 25 to 79 years old who had measured their blood sugar before, but who were not diagnosed DM. DM risk level was calculated using FINDRISC tool. The scale score is between 0-26, %u226515 points are considered high risk (risk ratio 1/3. In analyzing the data, t-test, ANOVA and chi-square test and binary logistic regression were used. Results: Of the subjects 10 years of DM risk score%u2019s mean was 8.8 ± 4.6. When FINDRISC score low / medium and high divided into 2 groups, the proportion of those in the high risk group is 11.5%. This rate is similar to the 10-year incidence of DM calculated (11-12.4% for Turkey. In this study, all of the factors taken into FINDRISC calculations were statistically significant (p 0.05. Discussion: FINDRISC used to be in the DM risk calculations of Turkish population. One out of every ten adults are at high risk of developing DM in 10 years. To avoid this problem urgently needs to be implemented by the various programs on an individual and societal level.

The population attributable risk of nutrition and lifestyle on hip fractures.

Science.gov (United States)

Pripp, Are Hugo; Dahl, Ola E

2015-01-01

Norway is among the countries with the highest incidence of hip fractures, and how to reduce this incidence is a major public health concern. The population attributable risk (PAR), which measures the portion of hip fracture incidences in the population that can be attributed to an exposure if there is a causal relationship, was assessed for the exposure to excessive alcohol consumption, being underweight, low calcium from dairy products, low physical activity and current tobacco smoking. The risk ratio (RR) of the exposures summarized from systematic reviews and meta-analyses, as well as their prevalence from national statistics or Norwegian population-based studies, were used to estimate PARs. Low physical activity and current tobacco smoking had the highest RR for hip fractures, with 1.65 (95% CI 1.50-1.81) and 1.52 (95% CI 1.41-1.63). Low physical activity had the highest prevalence in the population (27.4%) and the highest PAR (0.151), followed by tobacco smoking (PAR = 0.081) and excessive alcohol consumption (PAR = 0.01). By comparison, being underweight and low calcium from dairy products had negligible PAR estimates. From a public health perspective, increased daily physical activity is the most promising intervention to reduce the incidence of hip fractures. Reduced smoking and alcohol consumption are of relevance, but other health risks related to these exposures are of greater public health concern. Low body weight and nutritional calcium from dairy products seem to be of less importance.

DNA variation of the mammalian major histocompatibility complex reflects genomic diversity and population history

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yuhki, Naoya; O' Brien, S.J. (National Cancer Institute, Frederick, MD (USA))

1990-01-01

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is a multigene complex of tightly linked homologous genes that encode cell surface antigens that play a key role in immune regulation and response to foreign antigens. In most species, MHC gene products display extreme antigenic polymorphism, and their variability has been interpreted to reflect an adaptive strategy for accommodating rapidly evolving infectious agents that periodically afflict natural populations. Determination of the extent of MHC variation has been limited to populations in which skin grafting is feasible or for which serological reagents have been developed. The authors present here a quantitative analysis of restriction fragment length polymorphism of MHC class I genes in several mammalian species (cats, rodents, humans) known to have very different levels of genetic diversity based on functional MHC assays and on allozyme surveys. When homologous class I probes were employed, a notable concordance was observed between the extent of MHC restriction fragment variation and functional MHC variation detected by skin grafts or genome-wide diversity estimated by allozyme screens. These results confirm the genetically depauperate character of the African cheetah, Acinonyx jubatus, and the Asiatic lion, Panthera leo persica; further, they support the use of class I MHC molecular reagents in estimating the extent and character of genetic diversity in natural populations.

DNA variation of the mammalian major histocompatibility complex reflects genomic diversity and population history

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuhki, Naoya; O'Brien, S.J.

1990-01-01

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is a multigene complex of tightly linked homologous genes that encode cell surface antigens that play a key role in immune regulation and response to foreign antigens. In most species, MHC gene products display extreme antigenic polymorphism, and their variability has been interpreted to reflect an adaptive strategy for accommodating rapidly evolving infectious agents that periodically afflict natural populations. Determination of the extent of MHC variation has been limited to populations in which skin grafting is feasible or for which serological reagents have been developed. The authors present here a quantitative analysis of restriction fragment length polymorphism of MHC class I genes in several mammalian species (cats, rodents, humans) known to have very different levels of genetic diversity based on functional MHC assays and on allozyme surveys. When homologous class I probes were employed, a notable concordance was observed between the extent of MHC restriction fragment variation and functional MHC variation detected by skin grafts or genome-wide diversity estimated by allozyme screens. These results confirm the genetically depauperate character of the African cheetah, Acinonyx jubatus, and the Asiatic lion, Panthera leo persica; further, they support the use of class I MHC molecular reagents in estimating the extent and character of genetic diversity in natural populations

Population-Attributable Risk Proportion of Clinical Risk Factors for Breast Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Engmann, Natalie J; Golmakani, Marzieh K; Miglioretti, Diana L; Sprague, Brian L; Kerlikowske, Karla

2017-09-01

Many established breast cancer risk factors are used in clinical risk prediction models, although the proportion of breast cancers explained by these factors is unknown. To determine the population-attributable risk proportion (PARP) for breast cancer associated with clinical breast cancer risk factors among premenopausal and postmenopausal women. Case-control study with 1:10 matching on age, year of risk factor assessment, and Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) registry. Risk factor data were collected prospectively from January 1, 1996, through October 31, 2012, from BCSC community-based breast imaging facilities. A total of 18 437 women with invasive breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ were enrolled as cases and matched to 184 309 women without breast cancer, with a total of 58 146 premenopausal and 144 600 postmenopausal women enrolled in the study. Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) breast density (heterogeneously or extremely dense vs scattered fibroglandular densities), first-degree family history of breast cancer, body mass index (>25 vs 18.5-25), history of benign breast biopsy, and nulliparity or age at first birth (≥30 years vs breast cancer. Of the 18 437 women with breast cancer, the mean (SD) age was 46.3 (3.7) years among premenopausal women and 61.7 (7.2) years among the postmenopausal women. Overall, 4747 (89.8%) premenopausal and 12 502 (95.1%) postmenopausal women with breast cancer had at least 1 breast cancer risk factor. The combined PARP of all risk factors was 52.7% (95% CI, 49.1%-56.3%) among premenopausal women and 54.7% (95% CI, 46.5%-54.7%) among postmenopausal women. Breast density was the most prevalent risk factor for both premenopausal and postmenopausal women and had the largest effect on the PARP; 39.3% (95% CI, 36.6%-42.0%) of premenopausal and 26.2% (95% CI, 24.4%-28.0%) of postmenopausal breast cancers could potentially be averted if all women with heterogeneously or extremely dense

Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, Mike S; Ruokolainen, Lasse

2013-01-01

The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies) dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies) in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate). Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental) series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback) models: autoregressive [AR(1)] and sinusoidal (1/f) models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1) models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing) populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1) methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We must let

Differences in the distribution of risk factors for stroke among the high-risk population in urban and rural areas of Eastern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Mi, Te; Sun, Shangwen; Du, Yifeng; Guo, Shougang; Cong, Lin; Cao, Mingfeng; Sun, Qinjian; Sun, Yi; Qu, Chuanqiang

2016-05-01

Considering the program of screening for risk factors of stroke in Eastern China, the aim of this study was to compare the distribution differences in risk factors for stroke among the high-risk population living in urban and rural areas. A total of 231,289 residents were screened and basic information collected. Risk factors for stroke among the high-risk population were compared between the urban and rural groups. A total of 117,776 high-risk residents from urban areas and 113,513 from rural areas were included in the analysis. The prevalence of hypertension was much higher in rural areas (73.3%) than that in urban areas (64.1%). Dyslipidemia (48.9% vs. 26.9%), sport lack (46.6% vs. 31.6%), diabetes mellitus (21.3% vs. 16.5%), and atrial fibrillation (18.7% vs. 9.8%) were more prevalent in the urban group, while smoking (26.5% vs. 28.8%), previous stroke (10.1% vs. 16.9%), and transient ischemic attack (20.9% vs. 24.6%) were less prevalent. Among the population at high risk of stroke, there were significant differences in the distribution of the following risk factors between the urban and rural groups: hypertension, atrial fibrillation, dyslipidemia, lack of physical exercise, and a previous stroke.

Which population groups are most unaware of CVD risks associated with sitting time?

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, Mitch J; Gilson, Nicholas; Vandelanotte, Corneel

2014-08-01

Prolonged sitting is an emerging risk factor for poor health yet few studies have examined awareness of the risks associated with sitting behaviours. This study identifies the population subgroups with the highest levels of unawareness regarding the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks associated with sitting behaviours. Adults (n=1256) living in Queensland, Australia completed a telephone-based survey in 2011, analysis conducted in 2013. The survey assessed participant's socio-demographic characteristics, physical activity, sitting behaviours and awareness of CVD risks associated with three sitting behaviours: 1) sitting for prolonged periods, 2), sitting for prolonged periods whilst also engaging in regular physical activity, and 3) breaking up periods of prolonged sitting with short activity breaks. Population sub-groups with the highest levels of unawareness were identified based on socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics using signal detection analysis. Unawareness ranged from 23.3% to 67.0%. Age was the most important variable in differentiating awareness levels; younger adults had higher levels of unawareness. Body mass index, physical activity, TV viewing, employment status and time spent at work also identified population sub-groups. Unawareness of CVD risk for prolonged sitting was moderately high overall. Younger adults had high levels of unawareness on all of the outcomes examined. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increased sexually transmitted infection incidence in a low risk population: identifying the risk factors.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Shiely, Frances

2010-04-01

Between 1994 and 2006, the incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in Ireland has increased by over 300%. Recent literature would suggest that this figure is an underestimation of the true scale of infection. Our objective was to determine the risk factors associated with STI diagnosis in a population with a rapidly increasing STI incidence.

Television, computer, and video viewing; physical activity; and upper limb fracture risk in children: a population-based case control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Deqiong; Jones, Graeme

2003-11-01

The effect of physical activity on upper limb fractures was examined in this population-based case control study with 321 age- and gender-matched pairs. Sports participation increased fracture risk in boys and decreased risk in girls. Television viewing had a deleterious dose response association with wrist and forearm fractures while light physical activity was protective. The aim of this population-based case control study was to examine the association between television, computer, and video viewing; types and levels of physical activity; and upper limb fractures in children 9-16 years of age. A total of 321 fracture cases and 321 randomly selected individually matched controls were studied. Television, computer, and video viewing and types and levels of physical activity were determined by interview-administered questionnaire. Bone strength was assessed by DXA and metacarpal morphometry. In general, sports participation increased total upper limb fracture risk in boys and decreased risk in girls. Gender-specific risk estimates were significantly different for total, contact, noncontact, and high-risk sports participation as well as four individual sports (soccer, cricket, surfing, and swimming). In multivariate analysis, time spent television, computer, and video viewing in both sexes was positively associated with wrist and forearm fracture risk (OR 1.6/category, 95% CI: 1.1-2.2), whereas days involved in light physical activity participation decreased fracture risk (OR 0.8/category, 95% CI: 0.7-1.0). Sports participation increased hand (OR 1.5/sport, 95% CI: 1.1-2.0) and upper arm (OR 29.8/sport, 95% CI: 1.7-535) fracture risk in boys only and decreased wrist and forearm fracture risk in girls only (OR 0.5/sport, 95% CI: 0.3-0.9). Adjustment for bone density and metacarpal morphometry did not alter these associations. There is gender discordance with regard to sports participation and fracture risk in children, which may reflect different approaches to sport

Perception of health risks of electromagnetic fields by MRI radiographers and airport security officers compared to the general Dutch working population: a cross sectional analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

van Dongen Diana

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The amount of exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMF at work is mainly determined by an individual's occupation and may differ from exposure at home. It is, however, unknown how different occupational groups perceive possible adverse health effects of EMF. Methods Three occupational groups, the general Dutch working population (n = 567, airport security officers who work with metal detectors (n = 106, and MRI radiographers who work with MRI (n = 193, were compared on perceived risk of and positive and negative feelings towards EMF in general and of different EMF sources, and health concerns by using analyses of variances. Data were collected via an internet survey. Results Overall, MRI radiographers had a lower perceived risk, felt less negative, and more positive towards EMF and different sources of EMF than the general working population and the security officers. For security officers, feeling more positive about EMF was not significantly related to perceived risk of EMF in general or EMF of domestic sources. Feeling positive about a source did not generalize to a lower perceived risk, while negative feelings were stronger related to perceived risk. MRI radiographers had fewer health concerns regarding EMF than the other two groups, although they considered it more likely that EMF could cause physical complaints. Conclusions These data show that although differences in occupation appear to be reflected in different perceptions of EMF, the level of occupational exposure to EMF as such does not predict the perceived health risk of EMF.

Efficiency or equity? Simulating the impact of high-risk and population intervention strategies for the prevention of disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathan M. Platt

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Maximizing both efficiency and equity are core considerations for population health. These considerations can result in tension in population health science as we seek to improve overall population health while achieving equitable health distributions within populations. Limited work has explored empirically the consequences of different population health intervention strategies on the burden of disease and on within- and between-group differences in disease. To address this gap, we compared the impact of four simulated interventions using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. In particular, we focus on assessing how population and high-risk primary prevention and population and high-risk secondary interventions efforts to reduce smoking behavior influence systolic blood pressure (SBP and hypertension, and how such strategies influence inequalities in SBP by income. The greatest reductions in SBP mean and standard deviation resulted from the population secondary prevention. High-risk primary and secondary prevention and population secondary prevention programs all yielded substantial reductions in hypertension prevalence. The effect of population primary prevention did little to decrease population SBP mean and standard deviation, as well as hypertension prevalence. Both high-risk strategies had a larger impact in the low-income population, leading to the greatest narrowing the income-related gap in disease. The population prevention strategies had a larger impact in the high-income population. Population health approaches must consider the potential impact on both the whole population and also on those with different levels of risk for disease within a population, including those in under-represented or under-served groups.

Genetic risk for autism spectrum disorders and neuropsychiatric variation in the general population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Robinson, Elise B; St Pourcain, Beate; Anttila, Verneri

2016-01-01

Almost all genetic risk factors for autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) can be found in the general population, but the effects of this risk are unclear in people not ascertained for neuropsychiatric symptoms. Using several large ASD consortium and population-based resources (total n > 38,000), we...... and developmental traits, the severe tail of which can result in diagnosis with an ASD or other neuropsychiatric disorder. A continuum model should inform the design and interpretation of studies of neuropsychiatric disease biology....

Mortality risks and limits to population growth of fishers

Science.gov (United States)

Rick A. Sweitzer; Viorel D. Popescu; Craig M. Thompson; Kathryn L. Purcell; Reginald H. Barrett; Greta M. Wengert; Mourad W. Gabriel; Leslie W. Woods

2015-01-01

Fishers (Pekania pennanti) in the west coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California, USA have not recovered from population declines and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service has proposed options for listing them as threatened. Our objectives were to evaluate differences in survival and mortality risk from natural (e.g., predation, disease, injuries,...

New risk markers may change the HeartScore risk classification significantly in one-fifth of the population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, M H; Hansen, T W; Christensen, M K

2008-01-01

subjects with estimated risk below 5%. During the following 9.5 years the composite end point of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke (CEP) occurred in 204 subjects. CEP was predicted in all three groups by UACR (HRs: 2.1, 2.1 and 2.3 per 10-fold increase, all P...CRP in subjects with low-moderate risk and UACR and Nt-proBNP in subjects with known diabetes of cardiovascular disease changed HeartScore risk classification significantly in 19% of the population....

The TSH levels and risk of hypothyroidism: Results from a population based prospective cohort study in an Iranian adult's population.

Science.gov (United States)

Aminorroaya, Ashraf; Meamar, Rokhsareh; Amini, Massoud; Feizi, Awat; Nasri, Maryam; Tabatabaei, Azamosadat; Faghihimani, Elham

2017-06-01

The aim of current study was to assess the relationship between serum TSH levels and hypothyroidism risk in the euthyroid population. In a population-based cohort study, a total of 615 individuals with a normal baseline TSH, from of total population (n=2254) in 2006, were followed up for 6years. TSH, total T4, thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb), and thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb) were measured. The relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were calculated based on logistic regression. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis along with area under the curve (AUC) was used to prediction of future hypothyroidism. TSH level in 2006 was a significant predictor for overt hypothyroidism, in the total population (RR=3.5) and female (RR=1.37) (all, P valuehypothyroidism from euthyroid. However, this cut off was not observed when we included only negative TPO and TgAbs people in 2006. The RR of hypothyroidism increased gradually when TSH level increased from 2.06-3.6mIU/L to >3.6mIU/L in the total population and both sexes. In women, the risk of overt hypothyroidism was significantly higher in subjects with TSH above 3.6 than those subject with THS levels≤2.05 [RR: (CI95 %), 20.57(2.-207.04), P valuehypothyroidism in future. However, it was not applicable for people with negative TPOAb and negative TgAb. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Extinction risk assessment for the species survival plan (SSP) population of the Bali mynah (Leucopsar rothschildi).

Science.gov (United States)

Earnhardt, Joanne M; Thompson, Steven D; Faust, Lisa J

2009-05-01

The Bali mynah Species Survival Plan (SSP), an Association of Zoos and Aquariums program, strives to maintain the genetic and demographic health of its population, avoid unplanned changes in size, and minimize the risk of population extinction. The SSP population meets current demographic and genetic objectives with a population size of 209 birds at 61 institutions and 96% genetic diversity (GD) retained from the source population. However, participating institutions have expressed concerns regarding space allocation, target population size (TPS), breeding restrictions, inbreeding depression, and harvest in relation to future population availability and viability. Based on these factors, we assess five questions with a quantitative risk assessment, specifically a population viability analysis (PVA) using ZooRisk software. Using an individual-based stochastic model, we project potential population changes under different conditions (e.g. changes in TPS and genetic management) to identify the most effective management actions. Our projections indicate that under current management conditions, population decline and extinction are unlikely and that although GD will decline over 100 years the projected loss does not exceed levels acceptable to population managers (less than 90% GD retained). Model simulations indicate that the combination of two genetic management strategies (i.e. priority breeding based on mean kinship and inbreeding avoidance) benefits the retention of GD and reduces the accumulation of inbreeding. The current TPS (250) is greater than necessary to minimize the risk of extinction for the SSP population but any reduction in TPS must be accompanied by continued application of genetic management. If carefully planned, birds can be harvested for transfer to Bali for a reintroduction program without jeopardizing the SSP population.

Psychological consequences of screening for cardiovascular risk factors in an un-selected general population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Løkkegaard, Thomas; S. Andersen, John; K. Jacobsen, Rikke

2015-01-01

Background: Concerns that general health checks, including screening for risk factors to ischemic heart disease (IHD),have negative psychological consequences seem widely unfounded; however, previous studies are only based on selfreports from participants. Aim: To investigate if risk factor...... screening in healthy adults leads to mental distress in the study population, independent of participation. Methods: The Inter99 study (1999 – 2006) was a randomised intervention in the general population, aiming to prevent IHD by a healthier lifestyle. We included the whole study population, independent......-screening of psychological status did not influence the psychological impact of screening. Conclusions: This large, randomised intervention study supports that screening for risk factors to IHD does not increase mental distress, not even in the mentally or socioeconomically most vulnerable persons.This study included...

Stochastic Model for Population Exposed to Low Level Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merkle, J.M.

1996-01-01

In this paper the stochastic model for population size, i.e. calculation of the number of deaths due to lethal stochastic health effects caused by the exposure to low level ionising radiation is presented. The model is defined for subpopulation with parameter (a, b) being fixed. Using the corresponding density function, it is possible to find all the quantities of interest by averaging over whole possible values for (a, l). All processes ar at first defined for one radionuclide, exposure pathway and the health effect under consideration. The results obtained in this paper are the basic quantities in the risk assessment, loss of life expectancy etc. The results presented in this paper are also applicable to the other sources of low level risk, not only the radiation risk

Public awareness of risk factors for cancer among the Japanese general population: A population-based survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sasazuki Shizuka

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The present study aimed to provide information on awareness of the attributable fraction of cancer causes among the Japanese general population. Methods A nationwide representative sample of 2,000 Japanese aged 20 or older was asked about their perception and level of concern about various environmental and genetic risk factors in relation to cancer prevention, as a part of an Omnibus Survey. Interviews were conducted with 1,355 subjects (609 men and 746 women. Results Among 12 risk factor candidates, the attributable fraction of cancer-causing viral and bacterial infection was considered highest (51%, followed by that of tobacco smoking (43%, stress (39%, and endocrine-disrupting chemicals (37%. On the other hand, the attributable fractions of cancer by charred fish and meat (21% and alcohol drinking (22% were considered low compared with other risk factor candidates. For most risk factors, attributable fraction responses were higher in women than in men. As a whole, the subjects tended to respond with higher values than those estimated by epidemiologic evidence in the West. The attributable fraction of cancer speculated to be genetically determined was 32%, while 36% of cancer was considered preventable by improving lifestyle. Conclusion Our results suggest that awareness of the attributable fraction of cancer causes in the Japanese general population tends to be dominated by cancer-causing infection, occupational exposure, air pollution and food additives rather than major lifestyle factors such as diet.

Relative risks for stroke by age, sex, and population based on follow-up of 18 European populations in the MORGAM Project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asplund, Kjell; Karvanen, Juha; Giampaoli, Simona

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Within the framework of the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) Project, the variations in impact of classical risk factors of stroke by population, sex, and age were analyzed. METHODS: Follow-up data were collected in 43 cohorts in 18 populations in 8...... European countries surveyed for cardiovascular risk factors. In 93 695 persons aged 19 to 77 years and free of major cardiovascular disease at baseline, total observation years were 1 234 252 and the number of stroke events analyzed was 3142. Hazard ratios were calculated by Cox regression analyses....... RESULTS: Each year of age increased the risk of stroke (fatal and nonfatal together) by 9% (95% CI, 9% to 10%) in men and by 10% (9% to 10%) in women. A 10-mm Hg increase in systolic blood pressure involved a similar increase in risk in men (28%; 24% to 32%) and women (25%; 20% to 29%). Smoking conferred...

Perceptions of risk in adults with a low or high risk profile of developing type 2 diabetes; a cross sectional population-bases study.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Adriaanse, M.C.; Twisk, J.W.R.; Dekker, J.M.; Spijkerman, A.M.W.; Nijpels, G.; Heine, R.J.; Snoek, F.J.

2008-01-01

Objective: To compare the perceived seriousness and risk of type 2 diabetes among low risk with high risk profile non-diabetic subjects and examine the relationship of perceived risk with multiple self-reported risk indicators. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based study among 4435 low risk

Population risk and subjective public law in atomic energy law

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winter, G.

1979-01-01

On the basis of jurisdiction in atomic law and in other planning and immission laws, the author deals with the question whether a plaintiff can base his action against a nuclear licence on the fact that the general population risk is very high around the chosen site or because of the type of reactors. Even if jurisdiction negates this question because of the function of the administrative-judicial legal protection (individual involvement), it nevertheless regards it as neccessary with the increasing number and size of NPPs, to make the general population risk accessable to actions. The author critically deals with the protection norm theory of the legal dogmatics and that of the practical jurisdiction. He suggests to replace the 'Nachbarklagen' model in atomic laws by a model of 'Eingriffsverwaltung' and to regard the licences primarily as tolerance declarations to the neighbourhood and secondarily as favouring administrative actions. (UN) [de

Risk of second primary colorectal cancer among colorectal cancer cases: A population-based analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kavitha P Raj

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Patients with history of colorectal cancer (CRC are at increased risk for developing a second primary colorectal cancer (SPCRC as compared to the general population. However, the degree of risk is uncertain. Here, we attempt to quantify the risk, using data from the large population-based California Cancer Registry (CCR. Materials and Methods: We analyzed the CCR data for cases with surgically-treated colon and rectal cancer diagnosed during the period 1990-2005 and followed through up to January 2008. We excluded those patients diagnosed with metastatic disease and those in whom SPCRC was diagnosed within 6 months of the diagnosis of the primary CRC. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR with 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated to evaluate risk as compared to the underlying population after taking into account age, sex, ethnicity, and time at risk. Results: The study cohort consisted of 69809 cases with colon cancer and 34448 with rectal cancer. Among these patients there were 1443 cases of SPCRCs. The SIR for developing SPCRC was higher in colon cancer survivors (SIR=1.4; 95% CI: 1.3 to 1.5 as compared to the underlying population. The incidence of SPCRC was also higher in females (SIR=1.5; 95% CI: 1.3 to 1.6 and Hispanics (SIR=2.0; 95% CI: 1.7 to 2.4 with primary colon cancer. The SIR for developing an SPCRC was higher only among those whose initial tumor was located in the descending colon (SIR=1.6; 95% CI: 1.3 to 2.0 and proximal colon (SIR=1.4; 95% CI: 1.3 to 1.6. Conclusions: Our results confirm that CRC patients, especially females and Hispanics, are at a higher risk of developing SPCRC than the general population. Differential SPCRC risk by colorectal tumor subsite is dependent on gender and ethnicity, underscoring the heterogeneous nature of CRC.

Independent introduction of two lactase-persistence alleles into human populations reflects different history of adaptation to milk culture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enattah, Nabil Sabri; Jensen, Tine G K; Boyd, Mette

2008-01-01

the same history, probably related to the same cattle domestication event. In contrast, the compound Arab allele shows a different, highly divergent ancestral haplotype, suggesting that these two major global LP alleles have arisen independently, the latter perhaps in response to camel milk consumption....... These results support the convergent evolution of the LP in diverse populations, most probably reflecting different histories of adaptation to milk culture....

LINE-1 Hypomethylation is Associated with the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Chinese Population

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wei, Li [Department of Cardiology, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin (China); Liu, Shuchuan [Department of Hematology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin (China); Su, Zhendong; Cheng, Rongchao; Bai, Xiuping; Li, Xueqi, E-mail: xueqi-li@163.com [Department of Cardiology, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin (China)

2014-05-15

Global methylation level in blood leukocyte DNA has been associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), with inconsistent results in various populations. Similar data are lacking in Chinese population where different genetic, lifestyle and environmental factors may affect DNA methylation and its risk relationship with CHD. To examine whether global methylation is associated with the risk of CHD in Chinese population. A total of 334 cases with CHD and 788 healthy controls were included. Global methylation in blood leukocyte DNA was estimated by analyzing LINE-1 repeats using bisulfite pyrosequencing. In an initial analysis restricted to control subjects, LINE-1 level reduced significantly with aging, elevated total cholesterol, and diagnosis of diabetes. In the case-control analysis, reduced LINE-1 methylation was associated with increased risk of CHD; analysis by quartile revealed odds ratios (95%CI) of 0.9 (0.6-1.4), 1.9 (1.3-2.9) and 2.3 (1.6-3.5) for the third, second and first (lowest) quartile (P{sub trend} < 0.001), respectively, compared to the fourth (highest) quartile. Lower (risk of CHD. The lower LINE-1-related CHD risk estimates tended to be stronger among subjects with the highest tertile of homocysteine (P{sub interaction} = 0.042) and those with diagnosis of hypertension (P{sub interaction} = 0.012). LINE-1 hypomethylation is associated with the risk of CHD in Chinese population. Potential CHD risk factors such as older age, elevated total cholesterol, and diagnosis of diabetes may have impact on global DNA methylation, whereby exerting their effect on CHD risk.

LINE-1 Hypomethylation is Associated with the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Chinese Population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei, Li; Liu, Shuchuan; Su, Zhendong; Cheng, Rongchao; Bai, Xiuping; Li, Xueqi

2014-01-01

Global methylation level in blood leukocyte DNA has been associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), with inconsistent results in various populations. Similar data are lacking in Chinese population where different genetic, lifestyle and environmental factors may affect DNA methylation and its risk relationship with CHD. To examine whether global methylation is associated with the risk of CHD in Chinese population. A total of 334 cases with CHD and 788 healthy controls were included. Global methylation in blood leukocyte DNA was estimated by analyzing LINE-1 repeats using bisulfite pyrosequencing. In an initial analysis restricted to control subjects, LINE-1 level reduced significantly with aging, elevated total cholesterol, and diagnosis of diabetes. In the case-control analysis, reduced LINE-1 methylation was associated with increased risk of CHD; analysis by quartile revealed odds ratios (95%CI) of 0.9 (0.6-1.4), 1.9 (1.3-2.9) and 2.3 (1.6-3.5) for the third, second and first (lowest) quartile (P trend < 0.001), respectively, compared to the fourth (highest) quartile. Lower (risk of CHD. The lower LINE-1-related CHD risk estimates tended to be stronger among subjects with the highest tertile of homocysteine (P interaction = 0.042) and those with diagnosis of hypertension (P interaction = 0.012). LINE-1 hypomethylation is associated with the risk of CHD in Chinese population. Potential CHD risk factors such as older age, elevated total cholesterol, and diagnosis of diabetes may have impact on global DNA methylation, whereby exerting their effect on CHD risk

Suicide Risk by Military Occupation in the DoD Active Component Population

Science.gov (United States)

Trofimovich, Lily; Reger, Mark A.; Luxton, David D.; Oetjen-Gerdes, Lynne A.

2013-01-01

Suicide risk based on occupational cohorts within the U.S. military was investigated. Rates of suicide based on military occupational categories were computed for the Department of Defense (DoD) active component population between 2001 and 2010. The combined infantry, gun crews, and seamanship specialist group was at increased risk of suicide…

Population pressure and health risks in urban market environment: a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Population pressure and health risks in urban market environment: a study of Bodija market, Ibadan, Nigeria. ... International Journal of Development and Management Review ... This study was directed at permanent sellers in Bodija Market, (men and women) and people who frequent the market to make purchases.

Adverse childhood experiences, gender, and HIV risk behaviors: Results from a population-based sample

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Lin Fang

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Recent HIV research suggested assessing adverse childhood experiences (ACEs as contributing factors of HIV risk behaviors. However, studies often focused on a single type of adverse experience and very few utilized population-based data. This population study examined the associations between ACE (individual and cumulative ACE score and HIV risk behaviors. We analyzed the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS from 5 states. The sample consisted of 39,434 adults. Eight types of ACEs that included different types of child abuse and household dysfunctions before the age of 18 were measured. A cumulative score of ACEs was also computed. Logistic regression estimated of the association between ACEs and HIV risk behaviors using odds ratio (OR with 95% confidence intervals (CIs for males and females separately. We found that ACEs were positively associated with HIV risk behaviors overall, but the associations differed between males and females in a few instances. While the cumulative ACE score was associated with HIV risk behaviors in a stepwise manner, the pattern varied by gender. For males, the odds of HIV risk increased at a significant level as long as they experienced one ACE, whereas for females, the odds did not increase until they experienced three or more ACEs. Future research should further investigate the gender-specific associations between ACEs and HIV risk behaviors. As childhood adversities are prevalent among general population, and such experiences are associated with increased risk behaviors for HIV transmission, service providers can benefit from the principles of trauma-informed practice.

Alcohol and cancer: risk perception and risk denial beliefs among the French general population.

Science.gov (United States)

Bocquier, Aurélie; Fressard, Lisa; Verger, Pierre; Legleye, Stéphane; Peretti-Watel, Patrick

2017-08-01

Worldwide, millions of deaths each year are attributed to alcohol. We sought to examine French people's beliefs about the risks of alcohol, their correlates, and their associations with alcohol use. Data came from the 2010 Baromètre Cancer survey, a random cross-sectional telephone survey of the French general population (n = 3359 individuals aged 15-75 years). Using principal component analysis of seven beliefs about alcohol risks, we built two scores (one assessing risk denial based on self-confidence and the other risk relativization). Two multiple linear regressions explored these scores' socio-demographic and perceived information level correlates. Multiple logistic regressions tested the associations of these scores with daily drinking and with heavy episodic drinking (HED). About 60% of the respondents acknowledged that alcohol increases the risk of cancer, and 89% felt well-informed about the risks of alcohol. Beliefs that may promote risk denial were frequent (e.g. 72% agreed that soda and hamburgers are as bad as alcohol for your health). Both risk denial and risk relativization scores were higher among men, older respondents and those of low socioeconomic status. The probability of daily drinking increased with the risk relativization score and that of HED with both scores. Beliefs that can help people to deny the cancer risks due to alcohol use are common in France and may exist in many other countries where alcoholic beverages have been an integral part of the culture. These results can be used to redesign public information campaigns about the risks of alcohol. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Dopamine in high-risk populations: A comparison of subjects with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome and subjects at ultra high-risk for psychosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Vingerhoets, Claudia; Bloemen, Oswald J N; Boot, Erik; Bakker, Geor; de Koning, Mariken B; da Silva Alves, Fabiana; Booij, Jan; van Amelsvoort, Thérèse A M J

2018-02-28

Striatal dopamine (DA) dysfunction has been consistently reported in psychotic disorders. Differences and similarities in the pathogenesis between populations at clinical and genetic risk for developing psychosis are yet to be established. Here we explored markers of dopamine (DA) function in subjects meeting clinically ultra-high risk criteria for psychosis (UHR) and in subjects with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS), a genetic condition associated with significant risk for developing psychotic disorders. Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT) with 123 I-labelled iodobenzamide ([ 123 I]IBZM) was used to measure striatal DA D 2/3 receptor binding potential (D 2 R BP ND ). Also, peripheral DAergic markers were assessed in serum and urine (plasma prolactin (pPRL), plasma homovanillic acid (pHVA) and urine DA(uDA)). No significant difference in striatal D 2 R BP ND was found between UHR and 22q11DS subjects. Compared to UHR subjects, pPRL and pHVA were lower and uDA levels were higher in the 22q11DS subjects. However, after correcting for age and gender, only pPRL as significantly lower in the 22q11DS patients. These results may suggest that there are differences in DAergic markers between subjects with UHR and with 22q11DS that may reflect differences in the pathways to psychosis. However, bigger samples are needed to replicate these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Work related neck and upper limb symptoms (RSI) : high risk occupations and risk factors in the Dutch working population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Blatter, B.M.; Bongers, P.M.

1999-01-01

By means of the questionnaire Monitor on Stress and Physical Load 984 employers and 10813 employees were interviewed about the presence of risk factors for stress and musculoskeletal problems (RSI). The prevalence among the Dutch working population was 30.5%. Women appear to have a higher risk of

Indoor air quality investigation and health risk assessment at correctional institutions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ofungwu, Joseph

2005-04-01

A comprehensive indoor air-quality (IAQ) investigation was conducted at a state correctional facility in New Jersey, USA with a lengthy history of IAQ problems. The IAQ investigation comprised preliminary indoor air screening using direct readout instrumentation, indoor air/surface wipe sampling and laboratory analysis, as well as a heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system evaluation, and a building envelope survey. In addition to air sampling, a human health risk assessment was performed to evaluate the potential for exposure to site-related air contaminants with respect to the inmate and worker populations. The risk assessment results for the prison facility indicated the potential for significant health risks for the inmate population, possibly reflecting the effects of their confinement and extended exposure to indoor air contaminants, as compared to the prison guard and worker population. Based on the results of the risk assessment, several mitigation measures are recommended to minimize prison population health risks and improve indoor air quality at prison facilities.

[Latex allergy in a population at risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz Fernández, M; Flores Sandoval, G; Orea Solano, M

1999-01-01

The allergy to latex is an illness whose prevalence has been increased in very significant form in the last years. To know the allergy incidence to latex in population of risk, as well as to identify the related sintomatology and the importance or paper that play the atopia antecedents and time of contact with latex for the development of the illness. We carry out a prospective, descriptive, experimental and traverse study in population of risk, in the service of Allergy and clinical Immunology of the Hospital Regional Lic. Adolfo López Mateos, ISSSTE. One hundred patients of both sexes were included, with age of 20 to 50 years, with the antecedent of being personal medical and paramedic and to have presented contact with latex material in a minimum period of one year. They were carried out clinical history with registration of sintomatology nasal, bronchial, cutaneous and associated to contact with latex. They were carried out cutaneous test for prick to latex with positive control with the help of histamine solution and negative control with solution of Evans and immediate reading of the same one. 22% of the patients in study, they presented positive skin test latex, with a time of exhibition 10 year-old average, 68% presented antecedent of atopy personal, family and, likewise the associate sintomatology was in a 33.3% dermatology, 54.5 nasal, nobody presented bronchial symptoms and a 9% asymptomatic was reported. We support that the immediate skin test latex for Prick is an important parameter of support diagnosis for allergy to type 1 latex.

"Don't know" responses to risk perception measures: implications for underserved populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Waters, Erika A; Hay, Jennifer L; Orom, Heather; Kiviniemi, Marc T; Drake, Bettina F

2013-02-01

Risk perceptions are legitimate targets for behavioral interventions because they can motivate medical decisions and health behaviors. However, some survey respondents may not know (or may not indicate) their risk perceptions. The scope of "don't know" (DK) responding is unknown. Examine the prevalence and correlates of responding DK to items assessing perceived risk of colorectal cancer. Two nationally representative, population-based, cross-sectional surveys (2005 National Health Interview Survey [NHIS]; 2005 Health Information National Trends Survey [HINTS]), and one primary care clinic-based survey comprised of individuals from low-income communities. Analyses included 31,202 (NHIS), 1,937 (HINTS), and 769 (clinic) individuals. Five items assessed perceived risk of colorectal cancer. Four of the items differed in format and/or response scale: comparative risk (NHIS, HINTS); absolute risk (HINTS, clinic), and "likelihood" and "chance" response scales (clinic). Only the clinic-based survey included an explicit DK response option. "Don't know" responding was 6.9% (NHIS), 7.5% (HINTS-comparative), and 8.7% (HINTS-absolute). "Don't know" responding was 49.1% and 69.3% for the "chance" and "likely" response options (clinic). Correlates of DK responding were characteristics generally associated with disparities (e.g., low education), but the pattern of results varied among samples, question formats, and response scales. The surveys were developed independently and employed different methodologies and items. Consequently, the results were not directly comparable. There may be multiple explanations for differences in the magnitude and characteristics of DK responding. "Don't know" responding is more prevalent in populations affected by health disparities. Either not assessing or not analyzing DK responses could further disenfranchise these populations and negatively affect the validity of research and the efficacy of interventions seeking to eliminate health disparities.

RISKAP: a computer code for analysis of increased risk to arbitrary populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leggett, R.W.

1986-06-01

The computer code RISKAP is used to estimate risk to a population exposed to radioactivity. Risk is measured in terms of the expected number of premature deaths resulting from radiogenic cancers, the number of years of life lost as a result of these deaths, and the average number of years of life lost per premature death. Radiation doses are used to compute an annual, age-specific risk of premature cancer death, based on a dose-response function selected by the user. Calculations of premature radiation deaths, deaths from all causes, and the new age distribution of the population are performed for one-year intervals. RISKAP has been designed to accommodate latency and plateau periods that vary with age at exposure and risk functions that vary with age at exposure as well as time after exposure. RISKAP allows the use of a linear, quadratic, or linear-quadratic dose-response function, although the code is structured so that the user may include an exponential factor or substitute any preferred dose-response function

A Simple Risk Score for Identifying Individuals with Impaired Fasting Glucose in the Southern Chinese Population

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Hui Wang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006–2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008–2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008–2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice.

Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

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Mike S Fowler

Full Text Available The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate. Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback models: autoregressive [AR(1] and sinusoidal (1/f models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1 models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1 methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We

Synergistic effect of oral corticosteroids use on risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in high risk populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Shih-Wei; Lin, Cheng-Li; Liao, Kuan-Fu

2018-06-01

Little evidence is available on the relationship between oral corticosteroids use and hepatocellular carcinoma. The objective of this study was to investigate whether oral corticosteroids use correlates with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in high risk populations in Taiwan. Using representative claims database established from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program with a population coverage rate of 99.6%, we identified 102,182 subjects aged 20-84 years with newly diagnosed hepatocellular carcinoma in 2000-2011 as the cases and 102,182 randomly selected subjects aged 20-84 years without hepatocellular carcinoma as the matched controls. In subjects with any one of comorbidities including alcohol-related disease, chronic liver disease, and diabetes mellitus, the adjusted OR of hepatocellular carcinoma was 29.9 (95% CI 28.7, 31.1) for subjects with never use of oral corticosteroids, and the adjusted OR would increase to 33.7 (95% CI 32.3, 35.3) for those with ever use of oral corticosteroids. The adjusted OR of hepatocellular carcinoma was 1.03 for subjects with increasing cumulative duration of oral corticosteroids use for every one year (95% CI 1.01, 1.06), with a duration-dependent effect. The largest OR occurred in subjects with ever use of oral corticosteroids and concurrently comorbid with alcohol-related disease, chronic liver disease, and diabetes mellitus (adjusted OR 122.7, 95% CI 108.5, 138.8). There is a synergistic effect between oral corticosteroids use and the traditional risk factors on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. People with risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma should receive regular ultrasound surveillance, particularly when they currently use oral corticosteroids. Copyright © 2018 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Antidepressant Sales and the Risk for Alcohol-Related and Non-Alcohol-Related Suicide in Finland—An Individual-Level Population Study

Science.gov (United States)

Moustgaard, Heta; Joutsenniemi, Kaisla; Myrskylä, Mikko; Martikainen, Pekka

2014-01-01

Objectives A marked decline in suicide rates has co-occurred with increased antidepressant sales in several countries but the causal connection between the trends remains debated. Most previous studies have focused on overall suicide rates and neglected differential effects in population subgroups. Our objective was to investigate whether increasing sales of non-tricyclic antidepressants have reduced alcohol- and non-alcohol-related suicide risk in different population subgroups. Methods We followed a nationally representative sample of 950,158 Finnish adults in 1995–2007 for alcohol-related (n = 2,859) and non-alcohol-related (n = 8,632) suicides. We assessed suicide risk by gender and social group according to regional sales of non-tricyclic antidepressants, measured by sold doses per capita, prevalence of antidepressant users, and proportion of antidepressant users with doses reflecting minimally adequate treatment. Fixed-effects Poisson regression models controlled for regional differences and time trends that may influence suicide risk irrespective of antidepressant sales. Results The number of sold antidepressant doses per capita and the prevalence of antidepressant users were unrelated to male suicide risk. However, one percentage point increase in the proportion of antidepressant users receiving minimally adequate treatment reduced non-alcohol-related male suicide risk by one percent (relative risk 0.987, 95% confidence interval 0.976–0.998). This beneficial effect only emerged among men with high education, high income, and employment, among men without a partner, and men not owning their home. Alcohol-related suicides and female suicides were unrelated to all measures of antidepressant sales. Conclusion We found little evidence that increase in overall sales or in the prevalence of non-tricyclic antidepressant users would have caused the fall in suicide rates in Finland in 1995–2007. However, the rise in the proportion of antidepressant

[Regulatory radiation risks' for the population and natural objects within the Semipalatinsk Test Site].

Science.gov (United States)

Spiridonov, S I; Teten'kin, V L; Mukusheva, M K; Solomatin, V M

2008-01-01

Advisability of using risks as indicators for estimating radiation impacts on environmental objects and humans has been jusified. Results are presented from identification of dose burdens distribution to various cohorts of the population living within the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) and consuming contaminated farm products. Parameters of dose burden distributions are estimated for areas of livestock grazing and the most contaminated sectors within these areas. Dose distributions to meadow plants for the above areas have been found. Regulatory radiation risks for the STS population and meadow ecosystem components have been calculated. Based on the parameters estimated, levels of radiation exposure of the population and herbaceous plants have been compared.

TCF7L2 variant genotypes and type 2 diabetes risk in Brazil: significant association, but not a significant tool for risk stratification in the general population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mill JG

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic polymorphisms of the TCF7L2 gene are strongly associated with large increments in type 2 diabetes risk in different populations worldwide. In this study, we aimed to confirm the effect of the TCF7L2 polymorphism rs7903146 on diabetes risk in a Brazilian population and to assess the use of this genetic marker in improving diabetes risk prediction in the general population. Methods We genotyped the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene in 560 patients with known coronary disease enrolled in the MASS II (Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study Trial and in 1,449 residents of Vitoria, in Southeast Brazil. The associations of this gene variant to diabetes risk and metabolic characteristics in these two different populations were analyzed. To access the potential benefit of using this marker for diabetes risk prediction in the general population we analyzed the impact of this genetic variant on a validated diabetes risk prediction tool based on clinical characteristics developed for the Brazilian general population. Results SNP rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene was significantly associated with type 2 diabetes in the MASS-II population (OR = 1.57 per T allele, p = 0.0032, confirming, in the Brazilian population, previous reports of the literature. Addition of this polymorphism to an established clinical risk prediction score did not increased model accuracy (both area under ROC curve equal to 0.776. Conclusion TCF7L2 rs7903146 T allele is associated with a 1.57 increased risk for type 2 diabetes in a Brazilian cohort of patients with known coronary heart disease. However, the inclusion of this polymorphism in a risk prediction tool developed for the general population resulted in no improvement of performance. This is the first study, to our knowledge, that has confirmed this recent association in a South American population and adds to the great consistency of this finding in studies around the world

Risk factor studies of age-at-onset in a sample ascertained for Parkinson disease affected sibling pairs: a cautionary tale.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilk, Jemma B; Lash, Timothy L

2007-04-04

An association between exposure to a risk factor and age-at-onset of disease may reflect an effect on the rate of disease occurrence or an acceleration of the disease process. The difference in age-at-onset arising from case-only studies, however, may also reflect secular trends in the prevalence of exposure to the risk factor. Comparisons of age-at-onset associated with risk factors are commonly performed in case series enrolled for genetic linkage analysis of late onset diseases. We describe how the results of age-at-onset studies of environmental risk factors reflect the underlying structure of the source population, rather than an association with age-at-onset, by contrasting the effects of coffee drinking and cigarette smoking on Parkinson disease age-at-onset with the effects on age-at-enrollment in a population based study sample. Despite earlier evidence to suggest a protective association of coffee drinking and cigarette smoking with Parkinson disease risk, the age-at-onset results are comparable to the patterns observed in the population sample, and thus a causal inference from the age-at-onset effect may not be justified. Protective effects of multivitamin use on PD age-at-onset are also shown to be subject to a bias from the relationship between age and multivitamin initiation. Case-only studies of age-at-onset must be performed with an appreciation for the association between risk factors and age and ageing in the source population.

Risk factor studies of age-at-onset in a sample ascertained for Parkinson disease affected sibling pairs: a cautionary tale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lash Timothy L

2007-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract An association between exposure to a risk factor and age-at-onset of disease may reflect an effect on the rate of disease occurrence or an acceleration of the disease process. The difference in age-at-onset arising from case-only studies, however, may also reflect secular trends in the prevalence of exposure to the risk factor. Comparisons of age-at-onset associated with risk factors are commonly performed in case series enrolled for genetic linkage analysis of late onset diseases. We describe how the results of age-at-onset studies of environmental risk factors reflect the underlying structure of the source population, rather than an association with age-at-onset, by contrasting the effects of coffee drinking and cigarette smoking on Parkinson disease age-at-onset with the effects on age-at-enrollment in a population based study sample. Despite earlier evidence to suggest a protective association of coffee drinking and cigarette smoking with Parkinson disease risk, the age-at-onset results are comparable to the patterns observed in the population sample, and thus a causal inference from the age-at-onset effect may not be justified. Protective effects of multivitamin use on PD age-at-onset are also shown to be subject to a bias from the relationship between age and multivitamin initiation. Case-only studies of age-at-onset must be performed with an appreciation for the association between risk factors and age and ageing in the source population.

Cardiovascular risk assessment in elderly adults using SCORE OP model in a Latin American population: The experience from Ecuador.

Science.gov (United States)

Sisa, Ivan

2018-02-09

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is predicted to increase in Latin America countries due to their rapidly aging population. However, there is very little information about CVD risk assessment as a primary preventive measure in this high-risk population. We predicted the national risk of developing CVD in Ecuadorian elderly population using the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation in Older Persons (SCORE OP) High and Low models by risk categories/CVD risk region in 2009. Data on national cardiovascular risk factors were obtained from the Encuesta sobre Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento. We computed the predicted 5-year risk of CVD risk and compared the extent of agreement and reclassification in stratifying high-risk individuals between SCORE OP High and Low models. Analyses were done by risk categories, CVD risk region, and sex. In 2009, based on SCORE OP Low model almost 42% of elderly adults living in Ecuador were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period. The extent of agreement between SCORE OP High and Low risk prediction models was moderate (Cohen's kappa test of 0.5), 34% of individuals approximately were reclassified into different risk categories and a third of the population would benefit from a pharmacologic intervention to reduce the CVD risk. Forty-two percent of elderly Ecuadorians were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period, indicating an urgent need to tailor primary preventive measures for this vulnerable and high-risk population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Perception of health risks of electromagnetic fields by MRI radiographers and airport security officers compared to the general Dutch working population: a cross sectional analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

van Dongen, Diana; Smid, Tjabe; Timmermans, Daniëlle R M

2011-11-09

The amount of exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMF) at work is mainly determined by an individual's occupation and may differ from exposure at home. It is, however, unknown how different occupational groups perceive possible adverse health effects of EMF. Three occupational groups, the general Dutch working population (n = 567), airport security officers who work with metal detectors (n = 106), and MRI radiographers who work with MRI (n = 193), were compared on perceived risk of and positive and negative feelings towards EMF in general and of different EMF sources, and health concerns by using analyses of variances. Data were collected via an internet survey. Overall, MRI radiographers had a lower perceived risk, felt less negative, and more positive towards EMF and different sources of EMF than the general working population and the security officers. For security officers, feeling more positive about EMF was not significantly related to perceived risk of EMF in general or EMF of domestic sources. Feeling positive about a source did not generalize to a lower perceived risk, while negative feelings were stronger related to perceived risk. MRI radiographers had fewer health concerns regarding EMF than the other two groups, although they considered it more likely that EMF could cause physical complaints. These data show that although differences in occupation appear to be reflected in different perceptions of EMF, the level of occupational exposure to EMF as such does not predict the perceived health risk of EMF. © 2011 van Dongen et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Spatial modelling of population at risk and PM 2.5 exposure index: A ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

However, monitoring, spatial representation and development of associated risk indicators have been major problems undermining formulation of relevant policy on air quality. This study used ... to environmental health. Key Words: Population at risk, PM2.5; Spatial modeling, GIS, Exposure index, environmental health ...

Assessing risks to fish populations near a proposed disposal facility for used nuclear fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hart, D.; Miesenheimer, P.; Hull, R.

1995-01-01

The concept of used nuclear fuel disposal in the Canadian Shield is currently undergoing a federal environmental assessment review process. As part of this review, potential risks to brook trout populations in the vicinity of such an underground repository were considered. Chemical fate, transport and exposure models have been utilized to estimate the dose rates from released radionuclides and other fuel constituents, and these likely will not be sufficient to harm fish in nearby streams. However, other stressors such as habitat alteration (e.g., loss of upwelling) and/or fishing pressure associated with increased public access could have significant population impacts if the site is located in a pristine northern region. Population models are utilized to explore the risks of local population reduction for different combinations of fishing pressure and habitat degradation

Risk for Arterial and Venous Thrombosis in Patients With Myeloproliferative Neoplasms: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hultcrantz, Malin; Björkholm, Magnus; Dickman, Paul W; Landgren, Ola; Derolf, Åsa R; Kristinsson, Sigurdur Y; Andersson, Therese M L

2018-03-06

Patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are reported to be at increased risk for thrombotic events. However, no population-based study has estimated this excess risk compared with matched control participants. To assess risk for arterial and venous thrombosis in patients with MPNs compared with matched control participants. Matched cohort study. Population-based setting in Sweden from 1987 to 2009, with follow-up to 2010. 9429 patients with MPNs and 35 820 matched control participants. The primary outcomes were rates of arterial and venous thrombosis. Flexible parametric models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and cumulative incidence with 95% CIs. The HRs for arterial thrombosis among patients with MPNs compared with control participants at 3 months, 1 year, and 5 years were 3.0 (95% CI, 2.7 to 3.4), 2.0 (CI, 1.8 to 2.2), and 1.5 (CI, 1.4 to 1.6), respectively. The corresponding HRs for venous thrombosis were 9.7 (CI, 7.8 to 12.0), 4.7 (CI, 4.0 to 5.4), and 3.2 (CI, 2.9 to 3.6). The rate was significantly elevated across all age groups and was similar among MPN subtypes. The 5-year cumulative incidence of thrombosis in patients with MPNs showed an initial rapid increase followed by gentler increases during follow-up. The HR for venous thrombosis decreased during more recent calendar periods. No information on individual laboratory results or treatment. Patients with MPNs across all age groups have a significantly increased rate of arterial and venous thrombosis compared with matched control participants, with the highest rates at and shortly after diagnosis. Decreases in the rate of venous thrombosis over time likely reflect advances in clinical management. The Cancer Research Foundations of Radiumhemmet, Blodcancerfonden, the Swedish Research Council, the regional agreement on medical training and clinical research between Stockholm County Council and Karolinska Institutet, the Adolf H. Lundin Charitable Foundation, and Memorial Sloan

Vector-borne disease risk indexes in spatially structured populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge Velázquez-Castro

2018-02-01

Full Text Available There are economic and physical limitations when applying prevention and control strategies for urban vector borne diseases. Consequently, there are increasing concerns and interest in designing efficient strategies and regulations that health agencies can follow in order to reduce the imminent impact of viruses like Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya. That includes fumigation, abatization, reducing the hatcheries, picking up trash, information campaigns. A basic question that arise when designing control strategies is about which and where these ones should focus. In other words, one would like to know whether preventing the contagion or decrease vector population, and in which area of the city, is more efficient. In this work, we propose risk indexes based on the idea of secondary cases from patch to patch. Thus, they take into account human mobility and indicate which patch has more chance to be a corridor for the spread of the disease and which is more vulnerable, i.e. more likely to have cases?. They can also indicate the neighborhood where hatchery control will reduce more the number of potential cases. In order to illustrate the usefulness of these indexes, we run a set of numerical simulations in a mathematical model that takes into account the urban mobility and the differences in population density among the areas of a city. If we label by i a particular neighborhood, the transmission risk index (TRi measures the potential secondary cases caused by a host in that neighborhood. The vector transmission risk index (VTRi measures the potential secondary cases caused by a vector. Finally, the vulnerability risk index (VRi measures the potential secondary cases in the neighborhood. Transmission indexes can be used to give geographical priority to some neighborhoods when applying prevention and control measures. On the other hand, the vulnerability index can be useful to implement monitoring campaigns or public health investment.

Contribution of inorganic arsenic sources to population exposure risk on a regional scale.

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Chou, Wei-Chun; Chen, Jein-Wen; Liao, Chung-Min

2016-07-01

Chronic exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) in the human population is associated with various internal cancers and other adverse outcomes. The purpose of this study was to estimate a population-scale exposure risk attributable to iAs consumptions by linking a stochastic physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and biomonitoring data of iAs in urine. The urinary As concentrations were obtained from a total of 1,043 subjects living in an industrial area of Taiwan. The results showed that the study subjects had an iAs exposure risk of 27 % (the daily iAs intake for 27 % study subjects exceeded the WHO-recommended value, 2.1 μg iAs day(-1) kg(-1) body weight). Moreover, drinking water and cooked rice contributed to the iAs exposure risk by 10 and 41 %, respectively. The predicted risks in the current study were 4.82, 27.21, 34.69, and 64.17 %, respectively, among the mid-range of Mexico, Taiwan (this study), Korea, and Bangladesh reported in the literature. In conclusion, we developed a population-scale-based risk model that covered the broad range of iAS exposure by integrating stochastic PBPK modeling and reverse dosimetry to generate probabilistic distribution of As intake corresponding to urinary As measured from the cohort study. The model can also be updated as new urinary As information becomes available.

Prevalence of risk factors for coronary artery disease in an urban Indian population

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Sekhri, T; Kanwar, R S; Wilfred, R; Chugh, P; Chhillar, M; Aggarwal, R; Sharma, Y K; Sethi, J; Sundriyal, J; Bhadra, K; Singh, S; Rautela, N; Chand, Tek; Singh, M; Singh, S K

2014-01-01

Objective The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD) in government employees across India. Methods The study population consisted of government employees in different parts of India ({n=10 642 men and n=1966 women; age 20–60 years}) and comprised various ethnic groups living in different environmental conditions. Recruitment was carried out in 20 cities across 14 states, and in one union territory. All selected individuals were subjected to a detailed questionnaire, medical examinations and anthropometric measurements. Blood samples were collected for blood glucose and serum lipid profile estimation, and resting ECG was recorded. Results were analysed using appropriate statistical tools. Results The study revealed that 4.6% of the study population had a family history of premature CAD. The overall prevalence of diabetes was 16% (5.6% diagnosed during the study and the remaining 10.4% already on medication). Hypertension was present in 21% of subjects. The prevalence of dyslipidemia was significantly high, with 45.6% of study subjects having a high total cholesterol/high density lipoprotein ratio. Overall, 78.6% subjects had two or more risk factors for CAD. Conclusions The present study demonstrates a high prevalence of CAD risk factors in the Indian urban population. Therefore, there is an immediate need to initiate measures to raise awareness of these risk factors so that individuals at high risk for future CAD can be managed. PMID:25488095

Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

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Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

2015-01-01

Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

Association of the polygenic risk score for schizophrenia with mortality and suicidal behavior - A Danish population-based study.

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Laursen, Thomas M; Trabjerg, Betina B; Mors, Ole; Børglum, Anders D; Hougaard, David M; Mattheisen, Manuel; Meier, Sandra M; Byrne, Enda M; Mortensen, Preben B; Munk-Olsen, Trine; Agerbo, Esben

2017-06-01

It is unknown whether an increased genetic liability to schizophrenia influences the risk of dying early. The aim of the study was to determine whether the genetic predisposition to schizophrenia is associated with the risk of dying early and experience a suicide attempt. Case control study, Denmark. The main measure was the mortality rate ratios (MRR) for deaths and odds ratios (OR) for multiple suicide attempts, associated with one standard deviations increase of the polygenic risk-score for schizophrenia (PRS). We replicated the high mortality MRR=9.01 (95% CI: 3.56-22.80), and high risk of multiple suicide attempts OR=33.16 (95% CI: 20.97-52.43) associated with schizophrenia compared to the general population. However, there was no effect of the PRS on mortality MRR=1.00 (95% CI 0.71-1.40) in the case-control setup or in cases only, MRR=1.05 (95% CI 0.73-1.51). Similar, no association between the PRS and multiple suicide attempts was found in the adjusted models, but in contrast, family history of mental disorders was associated with both outcomes. A genetic predisposition for schizophrenia, measured by PRS, has little influence on the excess mortality or the risk of suicide attempts. In contrast there is a strong significant effect of family history of mental disorders. Our findings could reflect that the common variants detected by recent PRS only explain a small proportion of risk of schizophrenia, and that future, more powerful PRS instruments may be able to predict excess mortality within this disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social cognition deficits and the 'ultra high risk' for psychosis population: a review of literature.

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Thompson, Andrew D; Bartholomeusz, Cali; Yung, Alison R

2011-08-01

A number of risk factors for developing a psychotic disorder have been investigated in the 'ultra high risk' (UHR) population, including neurocognitive abilities, social functioning and, more recently, social cognition. We aimed to review the literature on social cognition in the UHR population. Literature was restricted to English articles and identified using Pubmed, Medline, PsychINFO and CINAHLplus, as well as the reference lists of published studies and reviews. Search terms included social cognition, theory of mind, emotion recognition, attributional style, social knowledge, social perception, 'at risk mental state', psychosis prodrome 'clinical high risk' and 'ultra high risk'. Inclusion criteria were an outcome measure of a social cognition task and an UHR population defined by a structured validated instrument. Seven original research articles met the inclusion criteria, one of which was a conference abstract. One of the two studies that assessed theory of mind, two of the four studies that assessed emotion recognition and both the two studies that assessed social perception/knowledge found significant deficits in UHR patients. The single study that assessed attributional bias also reported differences in UHR patients compared with healthy controls. There is limited published literature on social cognitive performance in the UHR population. Despite this, deficits in certain social cognitive abilities do appear to be present, but further research with more reliable cross-cultural measures is needed. The characterization of social cognitive deficits in the UHR populations may aid in the identification of potential markers for development of a subsequent psychotic disorder, as well as targets for early intervention. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Cardiovascular risk factors in a Mexican middle-class urban population. The Lindavista Study. Baseline data.

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Meaney, Alejandra; Ceballos-Reyes, Guillermo; Gutiérrez-Salmean, Gabriela; Samaniego-Méndez, Virginia; Vela-Huerta, Agustín; Alcocer, Luis; Zárate-Chavarría, Elisa; Mendoza-Castelán, Emma; Olivares-Corichi, Ivonne; García-Sánchez, Rubén; Martínez-Marroquín, Yolanda; Ramírez-Sánchez, Israel; Meaney, Eduardo

2013-01-01

The aim of this communication is to describe the cardiovascular risk factors affecting a Mexican urban middle-class population. A convenience sample of 2602 middle class urban subjects composed the cohort of the Lindavista Study, a prospective study aimed to determine if conventional cardiovascular risks factors have the same prognosis impact as in other populations. For the baseline data, several measurements were done: obesity indexes, smoking, blood pressure, fasting serum glucose, total cholesterol, HDL-c, LDL-c and triglycerides. This paper presents the basal values of this population, which represents a sample of the Mexican growing urban middle-class. The mean age in the sample was 50 years; 59% were females. Around 50% of the entire group were overweighed, while around 24% were obese. 32% smoked; 32% were hypertensive with a 20% rate of controlled pressure. 6% had diabetes, and 14% had impaired fasting glucose; 66% had total cholesterol ≥ 200 mg/dL; 62% showed HDL-c levels150 mg/dL, and 34% levels of LDL-c ≥ 160 mg/dL. Half of the population studied had the metabolic syndrome. These data show a population with a high-risk profile, secondary to the agglomeration of several cardiovascular risk factors. Copyright © 2012 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

High-risk populations identified in Childhood Cancer Survivor Study investigations: implications for risk-based surveillance.

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Hudson, Melissa M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Bowers, Daniel C; Sklar, Charles A; Green, Daniel M; Donaldson, Sarah S; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Neglia, Joseph P; Meadows, Anna T; Robison, Leslie L

2009-05-10

Childhood cancer survivors often experience complications related to cancer and its treatment that may adversely affect quality of life and increase the risk of premature death. The purpose of this manuscript is to review how data derived from Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) investigations have facilitated identification of childhood cancer survivor populations at high risk for specific organ toxicity and secondary carcinogenesis and how this has informed clinical screening practices. Articles previously published that used the resource of the CCSS to identify risk factors for specific organ toxicity and subsequent cancers were reviewed and results summarized. CCSS investigations have characterized specific groups to be at highest risk of morbidity related to endocrine and reproductive dysfunction, pulmonary toxicity, cerebrovascular injury, neurologic and neurosensory sequelae, and subsequent neoplasms. Factors influencing risk for specific outcomes related to the individual survivor (eg, sex, race/ethnicity, age at diagnosis, attained age), sociodemographic status (eg, education, household income, health insurance) and cancer history (eg, diagnosis, treatment, time from diagnosis) have been consistently identified. These CCSS investigations that clarify risk for treatment complications related to specific treatment modalities, cumulative dose exposures, and sociodemographic factors identify profiles of survivors at high risk for cancer-related morbidity who deserve heightened surveillance to optimize outcomes after treatment for childhood cancer.

Anterior cruciate ligament injury: Identifying information sources and risk factor awareness among the general population.

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Yasuharu Nagano

Full Text Available Raising awareness on a disorder is important for its prevention and for promoting public health. However, for sports injuries like the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL injury no studies have investigated the awareness on risk factors for injury and possible preventative measures in the general population. The sources of information among the population are also unclear. The purpose of the present study was to identify these aspects of public awareness about the ACL injury.A questionnaire was randomly distributed among the general population registered with a web based questionnaire supplier, to recruit 900 participants who were aware about the ACL injury. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: Question 1 asked them about their sources of information regarding the ACL injury; Question 2 asked them about the risk factors for ACL injury. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the information sources that provide a good understanding of the risk factors.The leading source of information for ACL injury was television (57.0%. However, the results of logistic regression analysis revealed that television was not an effective medium to create awareness about the risk factors, among the general population. Instead "Lecture by a coach", "Classroom session on Health", and "Newspaper" were significantly more effective in creating a good awareness of the risk factors (p < 0.001.

Chemical pollution of environment in the cities of Central Siberia: risk for the health of the population

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Ludmila Klimatskaya

2015-03-01

Full Text Available pollution in cities including the problem of risk assessment. The aim of the study is to determine carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for the health of the population due to chemical contamination of air, water and food in the cities of the Krasnoyarsk region. Material and methods. The research was conducted in the Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology in the Krasnoyarsk region. 5122 samples of air, 4863 samples of water and 6915 samples of food stuff have been analyzed. Concentration of chemical substances was the base on which individual carcinogenesis risk (ICR and population carcinogenic conventional risks (PCCR and non carcinogenic risks [1] have been calculated. In the industrial cities chemical pollution of air, water and food stuff including carcinogenic substances creates carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of morbidity of the population with the reinforcement of the complex impact, “with” which greatly exceeds the maximum acceptable risks. Results. Chemical pollution of environmental facilities in cities of the Krasnoyarsk region produce complex carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks which exceed maximum limit. The greatest shares in structure of complex carcinogenic risks are made in food stuff and water consumption in structure of complex non-carcinogenic risks as a result of air pollution and food stuff pollution. Conclusions. Obtained data could be used to set priorities in preventive measures to preserve health of the population in industrial cities of the Krasnoyarsk region.

Incidence and risk factors for suicide attempts in a general population of young people

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Erik; Juul Larsen, Kim; Agerbo, Esben

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the Danish epidemiological long-term incidence rates for suicide attempts in the general population of children and adolescents, and to analyze the impact from single and multiple risk factors on the risk of suicide attempts. METHOD: We used longitudinal register data from ...... on the increase in the period studied. Individuals exposed to multiple risk factors are at the highest risk for suicide attempts, and when spotted or in contact with authorities they should be given proper care and treatment to prevent suicide attempts and death.......OBJECTIVE: To estimate the Danish epidemiological long-term incidence rates for suicide attempts in the general population of children and adolescents, and to analyze the impact from single and multiple risk factors on the risk of suicide attempts. METHOD: We used longitudinal register data from...... a total cohort of all individuals born between 1983 and 1989 and living in Denmark to calculate incidence rates. From the cohort, we identified all who have attempted suicide, and matched 50 controls to each case. A nested case-control design was used to estimate the impact from risk factors on the risk...

Modification of the Fitzpatrick system of skin phototype classification for the Indian population, and its correlation with narrowband diffuse reflectance spectrophotometry.

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Sharma, V K; Gupta, V; Jangid, B L; Pathak, M

2018-04-01

The Fitzpatrick classification for skin phototyping is widely used, but its usefulness in dark-skinned populations has been questioned by some researchers. Recently, skin colour measurement has been proposed for phototyping skin colour objectively. To modify the Fitzpatrick system of skin phototyping for the Indian population and to study its correlation with skin colour using narrowband diffuse reflectance spectrophotometry METHODS: Answer choices for three items (eye colour, hair colour, colour of unexposed skin) out of 10 in the original Fitzpatrick questionnaire were modified, followed by self-administration of the original and the modified Fitzpatrick questionnaire by 70 healthy Indian volunteers. Skin colour (melanin and erythema indices) was measured from two photoexposed and two photoprotected sites using a narrowband reflectance spectrophotometer. The mean ± SD scores for the original and modified Fitzpatrick questionnaires were 25.40 ± 4.49 and 23.89 ± 4.82, respectively (r = 0.97, P Spectrophotometry can be a useful objective tool for skin phototyping. © 2018 British Association of Dermatologists.

Cage size, movement in and out of housing during daily care, and other environmental and population health risk factors for feline upper respiratory disease in nine North American animal shelters.

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Denae C Wagner

Full Text Available Upper respiratory infection (URI is not an inevitable consequence of sheltering homeless cats. This study documents variation in risk of URI between nine North American shelters; determines whether this reflects variation in pathogen frequency on intake or differences in transmission and expression of disease; and identifies modifiable environmental and group health factors linked to risk for URI. This study demonstrated that although periodic introduction of pathogens into shelter populations may be inevitable, disease resulting from those pathogens is not. Housing and care of cats, particularly during their first week of stay in an animal shelter environment, significantly affects the rate of upper respiratory infection.

Cage size, movement in and out of housing during daily care, and other environmental and population health risk factors for feline upper respiratory disease in nine North American animal shelters.

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Wagner, Denae C; Kass, Philip H; Hurley, Kate F

2018-01-01

Upper respiratory infection (URI) is not an inevitable consequence of sheltering homeless cats. This study documents variation in risk of URI between nine North American shelters; determines whether this reflects variation in pathogen frequency on intake or differences in transmission and expression of disease; and identifies modifiable environmental and group health factors linked to risk for URI. This study demonstrated that although periodic introduction of pathogens into shelter populations may be inevitable, disease resulting from those pathogens is not. Housing and care of cats, particularly during their first week of stay in an animal shelter environment, significantly affects the rate of upper respiratory infection.

Screening for type 2 diabetes in a high-risk population: Study design and feasibility of a population-based randomized controlled trial

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Klijs (Bart); S.J. Otto (Suzie); R.J. Heine (Robert); Y. van der Graaf (Yolanda); J.J. Lous (Jan); H.J. de Koning (Harry)

2012-01-01

textabstractBackground: We describe the design and present the results of the first year of a population-based study of screening for type 2 diabetes in individuals at high risk of developing the disease. High risk is defined as having abdominal obesity. Methods. Between 2006 and 2007, 79,142

Occupational risk factors have to be considered in the definition of high-risk lung cancer populations.

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Wild, P; Gonzalez, M; Bourgkard, E; Courouble, N; Clément-Duchêne, C; Martinet, Y; Févotte, J; Paris, C

2012-03-27

The aim of this study was to compute attributable fractions (AF) to occupational factors in an area in North-Eastern France with high lung cancer rates and a past of mining and steel industry. A population-based case-control study among males aged 40-79 was conducted, including confirmed primary lung cancer cases from all hospitals of the study region. Controls were stratified by broad age-classes, district and socioeconomic classes. Detailed occupational and personal risk factors were obtained in face-to-face interviews. Cumulative occupational exposure indices were obtained from the questionnaires. Attributable fractions were computed from multiple unconditional logistic regression models. A total of 246 cases and 531 controls were included. The odds ratios (ORs) adjusted on cumulative smoking and family history of lung cancer increased significantly with the cumulative exposure indices to asbestos, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and crystalline silica, and with exposure to diesel motor exhaust. The AF for occupational factors exceeded 50%, the most important contributor being crystalline silica and asbestos. These AFs are higher than most published figures. This can be because of the highly industrialised area or methods for exposure assessments. Occupational factors are important risk factors and should not be forgotten when defining high-risk lung cancer populations.

Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Ping

2005-01-01

BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

Incidence of liver trauma and relative risk factors for mortality: A population-based study

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Li-Chien Chien

2013-10-01

Results: A total of 3196 liver trauma patients were admitted in 2007 and 2008, resulting in 264 deaths. The incidence rate is 13.9/100,000 population. The highest incidence rate was in the age 15–24 years group, 25.9/100,000 population; the highest mortality rate was in the age 75–84 years group, 2.1/100,000 population. Additionally, rural residents possessed a higher incidence and mortality rate than urban residents (15.9/100,000 population vs. 12.2/100,000 population and 1.4/100,000 population vs. 1.0/100,000 population. By using logistic regression, the mortality rate was significantly higher in the groups with patients aged >64 years, renal failure or liver cirrhosis, with head or chest, or other abdominal injury. If a patient received a hepatic or abdominal operation, this was retrospectively found to be associated with increased mortality risk (4.731 times, p US$660 were found to have a higher mortality risk (2.209 times, p  64 years group, pedestrians hit in motor-vehicle accidents, renal failure or liver cirrhosis, with head or chest, or other abdominal injury.

Awareness of Risk Factors for Breast, Lung and Cervical Cancer in a UK Student Population.

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Sherman, Susan M; Lane, Emily L

2015-12-01

The objective of this study is to identify levels of risk awareness for breast, lung and cervical cancer, in a UK student population. A sample of male (N=62) and female (N=58) university students, mean age 21.62 years completed a questionnaire identifying which risk factors they knew for each cancer. Analysis of variance was used to compare differences in risk awareness across gender and cancer types. Risk factor awareness was highest for lung cancer (0.78), mid-range for breast cancer (0.61) and lowest for cervical cancer (0.47). Women had greater risk factor awareness (0.67) than males (0.57) across all three cancers. There is also significant belief in mythic risk factors such as stress (from 14 to 40% across the three cancers). Previous research has demonstrated that risk factor awareness increases with educational status, yet even in a university student population, in which the majority of females would have been offered the HPV vaccination, risk factor awareness for cancers is variable. More health education is needed particularly around the risk factors for cervical cancer.

Thyroid disorders and breast cancer risk in Asian population: a nationwide population-based case-control study in Taiwan.

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Weng, Chien-Hsiang; Chen, Yi-Huei; Lin, Ching-Heng; Luo, Xun; Lin, Tseng-Hsi

2018-03-30

To evaluate whether hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism increases the risk of subsequent breast cancer in an Asian population. Nationwide population-based case-control study. All healthcare facilities in Taiwan. A total of 103 466 women (mean age 53.3 years) were enrolled. 51 733 adult women with newly diagnosed primary breast cancer without a previous cancer history between 2006 and 2011 were identified and included in our study. 51 733 women with no cancer diagnosis prior to the index date were age matched as controls. Diagnosis of hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism prior to the diagnosis of breast cancer or the same index date was identified, age, histories of thyroid disease treatment, oestrogen use and radioactive iodine treatment were adjusted. To identify risk differences in developing breast cancer among patients with a medical history of hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism. There was a significantly increased risk of breast cancer in women with hyperthyroidism under the age of 55 years (age hypothyroidism also showed an increased risk of breast cancer (OR 1.19, P=0.029) without statistical significance after stratification by age group (age 55 years). Treatment for thyroid disorders did not alter the association in subgroup analyses (P=0.857; 0.262, respectively). Asian women under 55 years of age with history of hyperthyroidism have a significantly increased risk of breast cancer regardless of treatment. Women with history of hypothyroidism may also have an increased risk. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain.

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Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier

2015-03-01

In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Population attributable risks of oral cavity cancer to behavioral and medical risk factors in France: results of a large population-based case-control study, the ICARE study.

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Radoï, Loredana; Menvielle, Gwenn; Cyr, Diane; Lapôtre-Ledoux, Bénédicte; Stücker, Isabelle; Luce, Danièle

2015-10-31

Population attributable risks (PARs) are useful tool to estimate the burden of risk factors in cancer incidence. Few studies estimated the PARs of oral cavity cancer to tobacco smoking alone, alcohol drinking alone and their joint consumption but none performed analysis stratified by subsite, gender or age. Among the suspected risk factors of oral cavity cancer, only PAR to a family history of head and neck cancer was reported in two studies. The purpose of this study was to estimate in France the PARs of oral cavity cancer to several recognized and suspected risk factors, overall and by subsite, gender and age. We analysed data from 689 oral cavity cancer cases and 3481 controls included in a population-based case-control study, the ICARE study. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs), PARs and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The PARs were 0.3% (95% CI -3.9%; +3.9%) for alcohol alone, 12.7% (6.9%-18.0%) for tobacco alone and 69.9% (64.4%-74.7%) for their joint consumption. PAR to combined alcohol and tobacco consumption was 74% (66.5%-79.9%) in men and 45.4% (32.7%-55.6%) in women. Among suspected risk factors, body mass index 2 years before the interview role of combined tobacco and alcohol consumption in the oral cavity cancer burden in France and gives an indication of the proportion of cases attributable to other risk factors. Most of oral cavity cancers are attributable to concurrent smoking and drinking and would be potentially preventable through smoking or drinking cessation. If the majority of cases are explained by recognized or suspected risk factors in men, a substantial number of cancers in women are probably due to still unexplored factors that remain to be clarified by future studies.

Screening for type 2 diabetes in a high-risk population: study design and feasibility of a population-based randomized controlled trial

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klijs, B.; Otto, S.J.; Heine, R.J.; van der Graaf, Y.; Lous, J.J.; Koning, H.J.

2012-01-01

Background: We describe the design and present the results of the first year of a population-based study of screening for type 2 diabetes in individuals at high risk of developing the disease. High risk is defined as having abdominal obesity. Methods. Between 2006 and 2007, 79,142 inhabitants of two

Risk factor management in a contemporary Australian population at increased cardiovascular disease risk.

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Campbell, D J; Coller, J M; Gong, F F; McGrady, M; Prior, D L; Boffa, U; Shiel, L; Liew, D; Wolfe, R; Owen, A J; Krum, H; Reid, C M

2017-11-14

Effective management of cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease risk factors offers longer, healthier lives and savings in health care. We examined risk factor management in participants of the SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New Heart Failure (SCREEN-HF) study, a self-selected population at increased cardiovascular disease risk recruited from members of a health insurance fund in Melbourne and Shepparton, Australia. Inclusion criteria were age ≥60 years with one or more of self-reported ischaemic or other heart disease, irregular or rapid heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, renal impairment, or treatment for hypertension or diabetes for ≥2 years. Exclusion criteria were known heart failure or cardiac abnormality on echocardiography or other imaging. Medical history, clinical examination, full blood examination and biochemistry (without lipids and HbA1c) were performed for 3847 participants on enrolment, and blood pressure, lipids and HbA1c were measured 1-2 years after enrolment for 3202 participants. Despite 99% of 3294 participants with hypertension receiving antihypertensive medication, half had blood pressures >140/90 mmHg. Approximately 77% of participants were overweight or obese, with one third obese. Additionally, 74% of participants at high cardiovascular disease risk had low density lipoprotein cholesterol levels ≥2 mmol/l, one third of diabetic participants had HbA1c >7%, 22% had estimated glomerular filtration rate management of modifiable risk factors. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

A probabilistic transmission and population dynamic model to assess tuberculosis infection risk.

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Liao, Chung-Min; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Lin, Yi-Jun; Hsieh, Nan-Hung; Huang, Tang-Luen; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Ling, Min-Pei

2012-08-01

The purpose of this study was to examine tuberculosis (TB) population dynamics and to assess potential infection risk in Taiwan. A well-established mathematical model of TB transmission built on previous models was adopted to study the potential impact of TB transmission. A probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate site-specific risks of developing disease soon after recent primary infection, exogenous reinfection, or through endogenous reactivation (latently infected TB) among Taiwan regions. Here, we showed that the proportion of endogenous reactivation (53-67%) was larger than that of exogenous reinfection (32-47%). Our simulations showed that as epidemic reaches a steady state, age distribution of cases would finally shift toward older age groups dominated by latently infected TB cases as a result of endogenous reactivation. A comparison of age-weighted TB incidence data with our model simulation output with 95% credible intervals revealed that the predictions were in an apparent agreement with observed data. The median value of overall basic reproduction number (R₀) in eastern Taiwan ranged from 1.65 to 1.72, whereas northern Taiwan had the lowest R₀ estimate of 1.50. We found that total TB incidences in eastern Taiwan had 25-27% probabilities of total proportion of infected population exceeding 90%, whereas there were 36-66% probabilities having exceeded 20% of total proportion of infected population attributed to latently infected TB. We suggested that our Taiwan-based analysis can be extended to the context of developing countries, where TB remains a substantial cause of elderly morbidity and mortality. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Extrapolating ecological risks of ionizing radiation from individuals to populations to ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnthouse, L.W.

1997-01-01

Approaches for protecting ecosystems from ionizing radiation are quite different from those used for protecting ecosystems from adverse effects of toxic chemicals. The methods used for chemicals are conceptually similar to those used to assess risks of chemicals to human health in that they focus on the protection of the most sensitive or most highly exposed individuals. The assumption is that if sensitive or maximally exposed species and life stages are protected, then ecosystems will be protected. Radiological protection standards, on the other hand, are explicitly premised on the assumption that organisms, populations and ecosystems all possess compensatory capabilities to allow them to survive in the face of unpredictable natural variation in their environments. These capabilities are assumed to persist in the face of at least some exposure to ionizing radiation. The prevailing approach to radiological protection was developed more than 30 years ago, at a time when the terms risk assessment and risk management were rarely used. The expert review approach used to derive radiological protection standards is widely perceived to be inconsistent with the open, participatory approach that prevails today for the regulation of toxic chemicals. The available data for environmental radionuclides vastly exceeds that available for any chemical. Therefore, given an understanding of dose-response relationships for radiation effects and exposures for individual organisms, it should be possible to develop methods for quantifying effects of radiation on populations. A tiered assessment scheme as well as available population models that could be used for the ecological risk assessment of radionuclides is presented. (author)

Prevalence of coronary artery disease risk factors in Iran: a population based survey

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Gafarzadeh Motlag A

2007-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Coronary artery disease (CAD is a leading cause of mortality, morbidity, and disability with high health care cost in Iran. It accounts for nearly 50 percent of all deaths per year. Yet little is known about CAD and CAD risk factors in the Iranian population. We aimed to assess the prevalence of different CAD risk factors in an Iranian population. Methods A descriptive cross sectional survey was conducted involving 3000 healthy adults at 18 years of age or above who were recruited with cluster random sampling. Demographic data and risk factors were determined by taking history, physical examination and laboratory tests. Results The average age was 36.23 ± 15.26. There was 1381 female (46% and 1619 male (54% out of which 6.3% were diabetic, 21.6% were smoker, and 15% had positive familial heart disease history. 61% had total cholesterol level > 200 mg/dL, 32% triglyceride > 200 mg/dl, 47.5% LDL-c > 130 mg/dl, 5.4% HDL-c 140 mmHg, 9.1% diastolic blood pressure > 90 mmHg and 87% of them were physically inactive. Conclusion Clinical and Para-clinical data indicated that Iranian adult population are of a high level of CAD risk factors, which may require urgent decision making to address national control measures regarding CAD.

Principal component analysis of cardiovascular risk traits in three generations cohort among Indian Punjabi population

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Badaruddoza

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The current study focused to determine significant cardiovascular risk factors through principal component factor analysis (PCFA among three generations on 1827 individuals in three generations including 911 males (378 from offspring, 439 from parental and 94 from grand-parental generations and 916 females (261 from offspring, 515 from parental and 140 from grandparental generations. The study performed PCFA with orthogonal rotation to reduce 12 inter-correlated variables into groups of independent factors. The factors have been identified as 2 for male grandparents, 3 for male offspring, female parents and female grandparents each, 4 for male parents and 5 for female offspring. This data reduction method identified these factors that explained 72%, 84%, 79%, 69%, 70% and 73% for male and female offspring, male and female parents and male and female grandparents respectively, of the variations in original quantitative traits. The factor 1 accounting for the largest portion of variations was strongly loaded with factors related to obesity (body mass index (BMI, waist circumference (WC, waist to hip ratio (WHR, and thickness of skinfolds among all generations with both sexes, which has been known to be an independent predictor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The second largest components, factor 2 and factor 3 for almost all generations reflected traits of blood pressure phenotypes loaded, however, in male offspring generation it was observed that factor 2 was loaded with blood pressure phenotypes as well as obesity. This study not only confirmed but also extended prior work by developing a cumulative risk scale from factor scores. Till today, such a cumulative and extensive scale has not been used in any Indian studies with individuals of three generations. These findings and study highlight the importance of global approach for assessing the risk and need for studies that elucidate how these different cardiovascular risk factors

Principal component analysis of cardiovascular risk traits in three generations cohort among Indian Punjabi population.

Science.gov (United States)

Badaruddoza; Kumar, Raman; Kaur, Manpreet

2015-09-01

The current study focused to determine significant cardiovascular risk factors through principal component factor analysis (PCFA) among three generations on 1827 individuals in three generations including 911 males (378 from offspring, 439 from parental and 94 from grand-parental generations) and 916 females (261 from offspring, 515 from parental and 140 from grandparental generations). The study performed PCFA with orthogonal rotation to reduce 12 inter-correlated variables into groups of independent factors. The factors have been identified as 2 for male grandparents, 3 for male offspring, female parents and female grandparents each, 4 for male parents and 5 for female offspring. This data reduction method identified these factors that explained 72%, 84%, 79%, 69%, 70% and 73% for male and female offspring, male and female parents and male and female grandparents respectively, of the variations in original quantitative traits. The factor 1 accounting for the largest portion of variations was strongly loaded with factors related to obesity (body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist to hip ratio (WHR), and thickness of skinfolds) among all generations with both sexes, which has been known to be an independent predictor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The second largest components, factor 2 and factor 3 for almost all generations reflected traits of blood pressure phenotypes loaded, however, in male offspring generation it was observed that factor 2 was loaded with blood pressure phenotypes as well as obesity. This study not only confirmed but also extended prior work by developing a cumulative risk scale from factor scores. Till today, such a cumulative and extensive scale has not been used in any Indian studies with individuals of three generations. These findings and study highlight the importance of global approach for assessing the risk and need for studies that elucidate how these different cardiovascular risk factors interact with

Is use of fall risk-increasing drugs in an elderly population associated with an increased risk of hip fracture, after adjustment for multimorbidity level

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorell, Kristine; Ranstad, Karin; Midlöv, Patrik

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for hip fracture are well studied because of the negative impact on patients and the community, with mortality in the first year being almost 30% in the elderly. Age, gender and fall risk-increasing drugs, identified by the National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden......, are well known risk factors for hip fracture, but how multimorbidity level affects the risk of hip fracture during use of fall risk-increasing drugs is to our knowledge not as well studied. This study explored the relationship between use of fall risk-increasing drugs in combination with multimorbidity...... level and risk of hip fracture in an elderly population. METHODS: Data were from Östergötland County, Sweden, and comprised the total population in the county aged 75 years and older during 2006. The odds ratio (OR) for hip fracture during use of fall risk-increasing drugs was calculated by multivariate...

A reflection about the social and technological aspects in flood risk management - the case of the Italian Civil Protection

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Llasat, M. Del Carmen; Siccardi, F.

2010-01-01

The right of a person to be protected from natural hazards is a characteristic of the social and economical development of the society. This paper is a contribution to the reflection about the role of Civil Protection organizations in a modern society. The paper is based in the inaugural conference made by the authors on the 9th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms. Two major issues are considered. The first one is sociological; the Civil Protection organizations and the responsible administration of the land use planning should be perceived as reliable as possible, in order to get consensus on the restrictions they pose, temporary or definitely, on the individual free use of the territory as well as in the entire warning system. The second one is technological: in order to be reliable they have to issue timely alert and warning to the population at large, but such alarms should be as "true" as possible. With this aim, the paper summarizes the historical evolution of the risk assessment, starting from the original concept of "hazard", introducing the concepts of "scenario of event" and "scenario of risk" and ending with a discussion about the uncertainties and limits of the most advanced and efficient tools to predict, to forecast and to observe the ground effects affecting people and their properties. The discussion is centred in the case of heavy rains and flood events in the North-West of Mediterranean Region.

Impact of classical risk factors of type 2 diabetes among Asian Indian, Chinese and Japanese populations.

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He, L; Tuomilehto, J; Qiao, Q; Söderberg, S; Daimon, M; Chambers, J; Pitkäniemi, J

2015-11-01

This review investigated the population impact of major modifiable type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk factors, with special focus on native Asian Indians, to estimate population attributable risks (PARs) and compare them with estimates from Chinese and Japanese populations. Information was obtained on risk factors in 21,041 Asian Indian, 17,774 Chinese and 17,986 Japanese populations from multiple, large, cross-sectional studies (the DECODA project) of T2D. Crude and adjusted PARs were estimated for the major T2D risk factors. Age had the highest crude and adjusted PARs among Asian Indians and Chinese in contrast to waist-hip ratio among Japanese. After adjusting for age, the PAR for body mass index (BMI) in Asian Indians (41.4% [95% CI: 37.2%; 45.4%]) was second only to triglycerides (46.4% [95% CI: 39.5%; 52.8%]) compared with 35.8% [95% CI: 29.9%; 41.4%] in Japanese and 38.4% [95% CI: 33.5%; 43.2%] in Chinese people. The PAR for BMI adjusted for age, LDL and triglycerides (39.7% [95% CI: 31.6%; 47.2%]) was higher than for any other factor in Asian Indians, and was much higher than in the Chinese (16.8% [95% CI: 3.0%; 30.9%]) and Japanese (30.4% [95% CI: 17.5%; 42.2%]) populations. This review provides estimates of the association between major risk factors and prevalences of T2D among Asian populations by examining their PARs from large population-based samples. From a public-health point of view, the importance of BMI in Asian Indians is especially highlighted in comparison to the other Asian populations. Given these results and other recent findings on the causality link between BMI and T2D, it can be postulated that obesity may be involved in the aetiology of T2D through interaction with ethnic-specific genetic factors, although ethnicity itself is not a direct risk factor for T2D as people of all ethnic backgrounds develop diabetes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Dietary intake of aflatoxins in the adult Malaysian population - an assessment of risk.

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Chin, C K; Abdullah, A; Sugita-Konishi, Y

2012-01-01

Exposure to aflatoxins in the adult Malaysian diet was estimated by analysing aflatoxins in 236 food composites prepared as "ready for consumption". Dietary exposure to aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) ranged from 24.3 to 34.00 ng/kg b.w./day (lower to upper bound), with peanuts being the main contributor. Estimated liver cancer risk from this exposure was 0.61-0.85 cancers/100,000 population/year, contributing 12.4%-17.3% of the liver cancer cases. Excluding AFB1 occurrence data higher than 15 µg/kg reduced exposure by 65%-91% to 2.27-11.99 ng/kg b.w./day, reducing the cancer risk to 0.06-0.30 cancers/100,000 population/year (contributing 1.2%-6.1% liver cancer cases). Reducing further the ML of AFB1 from 15 to 5 µg/kg yielded 3%-7% greater drop in the exposure to 0.47-10.26 ng/kg b.w./day with an estimated risk of 0.01-0.26 cancers/100,000 population/year (0.2%-5.1% liver cancer cases attributed to dietary AFB1). These findings indicate that current MLs are adequate in protecting Malaysians' health.

Comparative performance of diabetes-specific and general population-based cardiovascular risk assessment models in people with diabetes mellitus.

Science.gov (United States)

Echouffo-Tcheugui, J-B; Kengne, A P

2013-10-01

Multivariable models for estimating cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in people with diabetes comprise general population-based models and those from diabetic cohorts. Whether one set of models should receive preference is unclear. We evaluated the evidence on direct comparisons of the performance of general population vs diabetes-specific CVD risk models in people with diabetes. MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched up to March 2013. Two reviewers independently identified studies that compared the performance of general CVD models vs diabetes-specific ones in the same group of people with diabetes. Independent, dual data extraction on study design, risk models, outcomes; and measures of performance was conducted. Eleven articles reporting on 22 pair wise comparisons of a diabetes-specific model (UKPDS, ADVANCE and DCS risk models) to a general population model (three variants of the Framingham model, Prospective Cardiovascular Münster [PROCAM] score, CardioRisk Manager [CRM], Joint British Societies Coronary Risk Chart [JBSRC], Progetto Cuore algorithm and the CHD-Riskard algorithm) were eligible. Absolute differences in C-statistic of diabetes-specific vs general population-based models varied from -0.13 to 0.09. Comparisons for other performance measures were unusual. Outcomes definitions were congruent with those applied during model development. In 14 comparisons, the UKPDS, ADVANCE or DCS diabetes-specific models were superior to the general population CVD risk models. Authors reported better C-statistic for models they developed. The limited existing evidence suggests a possible discriminatory advantage of diabetes-specific over general population-based models for CVD risk stratification in diabetes. More robust head-to-head comparisons are needed to confirm this trend and strengthen recommendations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Assessing Risks to Wildlife Populations from Multiple Stressors: Overview of the Problem and Research Needs.

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Wayne R. Munns, Jr.

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Wildlife populations are experiencing increasing pressure from human-induced changes in the landscape. Stressors including agricultural and urban land use, introduced invasive and exotic species, nutrient enrichment, direct human disturbance, and toxic chemicals directly or indirectly influence the quality and quantity of habitat used by terrestrial and aquatic wildlife. Governmental agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are required to assess risks to wildlife populations, in its broadest definition, that result from exposure to these stressors, yet considerable uncertainty exists with respect to how such assessments should be conducted. This uncertainty is compounded by questions concerning the interactive effects of co-occurring stressors, appropriate spatial scales of analysis, extrapolation of response data among species and from organisms to populations, and imperfect knowledge and use of limited data sets. Further, different risk problems require varying degrees of sophistication, methodological refinement, and data quality. These issues suggest a number of research needs to improve methods for wildlife risk assessments, including continued development of population dynamics models to evaluate the effects of multiple stressors at varying spatial scales, methods for extrapolating across endpoints and species with reasonable confidence, stressor-response relations and methods for combining them in predictive and diagnostic assessments, and accessible data sets describing the ecology of terrestrial and aquatic species. Case study application of models and methods for assessing wildlife risk will help to demonstrate their strengths and limitations for solving particular risk problems.

Colon cancer controls versus population controls in case-control studies of occupational risk factors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaerlev, Linda; Lynge, Elsebeth; Sabroe, Svend

2004-01-01

are interchangeable with the experience for population controls. Patient controls may even be preferable from population controls under certain conditions. In this study we examine if colon cancer patients can serve as surrogates for proper population controls in case-control studies of occupational risk factors...... about occupational, medical and life style conditions. RESULTS: No statistical significant difference for educational level, medical history or smoking status was seen between the two control groups. There was evidence of a higher alcohol intake, less frequent work as a farmer and less exposure...... to pesticides among colon cancer controls. CONCLUSIONS: Use of colon cancer controls may provide valid exposure estimates in studies of many occupational risk factors for cancer, but not for studies on exposure related to farming....

[Cardiovascular risk factors in the population at risk of poverty and social exclusión].

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Álvarez-Fernández, Carlos; Vaquero-Abellán, Manuel; Ruíz-Gandara, África; Romero-Saldaña, Manuel; Álvarez-López, Carlos

2017-03-01

Detect if there are differences in prevalence, distribution of cardiovascular risk factors and risk according to REGICOR and SCORE's function; between people belonging to different occupational classes and population at risk of social exclusion. Cross-sectional. SITE: Occupational health unit of the City Hall of Córdoba. Sample availability of 628 people, excluding 59 by age or incomplete data. The group of municipal workers was obtained randomly while all contracted exclusion risk was taken. No preventive, diagnostic or therapeutic actions that modify the course of the previous situation of workers were applied. Smoke, glucose, lipids, blood pressure and BMI as main variables. T-student were used for comparison of means and percentages for Chi 2 . Statistical significance attached to an alpha error <5% and confidence interval with a 95% security. Receiver operator curves (ROC) were employed to find out what explanatory variables predict group membership of workers at risk of exclusion. Smoking (95% CI: -.224;-.443), hypercholesterolemia (95% CI: -.127;-.320), obesity (95% CI: -.005;-0.214), diabetes (95% CI: -.060;-.211) and cardiovascular risk were higher in men at risk of exclusion. In women there were differences in the same variables except smoking (P=.053). The existence of inequalities in prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors is checked. In a context of social crisis, health promotion and primary prevention programs directing to the most vulnerable, they are needed to mit. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Peripheral immune abnormalities in two high-risk populations for bipolar disorder

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Snijders, G.; Schiweck, C.; Brouwer, R.; Mesman, E.; Grosse, L.; de Wit, H; Nolen, W. A.; Drexhage, H. A.; Hillegers, M. H. J.

Objective: Mounting data support the hypothesis for a role of the immune system in the pathophysiology of bipolar disorder. The aim of this study was to examine immune alterations in two unique familial high-risk cohorts for bipolar disorder. Methods: The study population comprised bipolar

Vegetarian dietary patterns and the risk of breast cancer in a low-risk population.

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Penniecook-Sawyers, Jason A; Jaceldo-Siegl, Karen; Fan, Jing; Beeson, Larry; Knutsen, Synnove; Herring, Patti; Fraser, Gary E

2016-05-28

Among cancers in American women, breast cancer (BC) has the second highest incidence and mortality. The association of BC with diet has been inconsistent. Studies that evaluate associations with dietary patterns are less common and reflect an individual's whole diet. We associated dietary patterns with the risk of BC in American women of the Adventist Health Study-2 (AHS-2), a prospective cohort of 96 001 subjects recruited between 2002 and 2007. Answers to a previously validated FFQ were used to classify subjects to vegan, lacto-ovo-vegetarian, pesco-vegetarian, semi-vegetarian and non-vegetarian dietary patterns. Incident BC were identified by matching AHS-2 subjects to data from forty-eight state cancer registries. Statistical analyses used proportional hazard regression analyses with covariates that were chosen a priori. From 50 404 female participants (26 193 vegetarians), we identified 892 incident BC cases, with 478 cases among vegetarians. As compared with non-vegetarians, all vegetarians combined did not have a significantly lower risk (hazard ratio (HR) 0·97; CI 0·84, 1·11; P=0·64). However, vegans showed consistently lower (but non-significant) point estimates when compared with non-vegetarians (all cases: HR 0·78; CI 0·58, 1·05; P=0·09). In summary, participants in this cohort who follow a vegetarian dietary pattern did not experience a lower risk of BC as compared with non-vegetarians, although lower risk in vegans is possible. These findings add to the very limited literature associating vegetarian diets with BC risk and can assist nutritionists when evaluating the impact of these diets. The findings will also motivate further evaluation of vegan diets and their special characteristics.

Reducing the extinction risk of stochastic populations via nondemographic noise

Science.gov (United States)

Be'er, Shay; Assaf, Michael

2018-02-01

We consider nondemographic noise in the form of uncertainty in the reaction step size and reveal a dramatic effect this noise may have on the stability of self-regulating populations. Employing the reaction scheme m A →k A but allowing, e.g., the product number k to be a priori unknown and sampled from a given distribution, we show that such nondemographic noise can greatly reduce the population's extinction risk compared to the fixed k case. Our analysis is tested against numerical simulations, and by using empirical data of different species, we argue that certain distributions may be more evolutionary beneficial than others.

Fasting insulin, insulin resistance and risk of hypertension in the general population: A meta-analysis.

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Wang, Feng; Han, Lili; Hu, Dayi

2017-01-01

Studies on the association of fasting insulin concentrations or insulin resistance with subsequent risk of hypertension have yielded conflicting results. To quantitatively assess the association of fasting insulin concentrations or homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) with incident hypertension in a general population by performing a meta-analysis. We searched the PubMed and Embase databases until August 31, 2016 for prospective observational studies investigating the elevated fasting insulin concentrations or HOMA-IR with subsequent risk of hypertension in the general population. Pooled risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of hypertension was calculated for the highest versus the lowest category of fasting insulin or HOMA-IR. Eleven studies involving 10,230 hypertension cases were identified from 55,059 participants. Meta-analysis showed that the pooled adjusted RR of hypertension was 1.54 (95% CI 1.34-1.76) for fasting insulin concentrations and 1.43 (95% CI 1.27-1.62) for HOMA-IR comparing the highest to the lowest category. Subgroup analysis results showed that the association of fasting insulin concentrations with subsequent risk of hypertension seemed more pronounced in women (RR 2.07; 95% CI 1.19-3.60) than in men (RR 1.48; 95% CI 1.17-1.88). This meta-analysis suggests that elevated fasting insulin concentrations or insulin resistance as estimated by homeostasis model assessment is independently associated with an exacerbated risk of hypertension in the general population. Early intervention of hyperinsulinemia or insulin resistance may help clinicians to identify the high risk of hypertensive population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Personality differences in two minnow populations that differ in their parasitism and predation risk

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Raine eKortet

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Animals are often individually consistent in their behavior, not only over time, but also across different functional contexts. Recent research has focused on phenotypic and evolutionary mechanisms explaining such personality differences through selection. Parasitism and predation induce important mortality and fitness costs, and are thus the main candidates to create and maintain personality differences in the wild. Here, we present data on the behavioral consistency of the Eurasian minnow (Phoxinus phoxinus from two populations that live in different tributaries of the same river, but whose ecological environment differs fundamentally with regard to predation and parasitism. We experimentally demonstrate that minnow in both study populations are consistent in their boldness and activity. However, the two study populations differ notably: in the high predation and parasitism risk population fish show higher mean boldness, but tend to be less active than fish in low predation and parasitism risk population. Parasite (Diplostomum phoxini load was negatively, but not statistically significantly, associated with fish activity level. Our study suggests that parasitism and predation are likely important agents in the ecology and evolution of animal personalities.

Managing mixed dyslipidemia in special populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Michael

2010-01-01

Controlling low-density lipoprotein cholesterol is one of the major focuses of cardiovascular care. However, the twin global pandemics of obesity and diabetes are promoting an increased prevalence of associated cardiometabolic risk factors. These factors include mixed dyslipidemia, which is prevalent among several important subgroups of the overall population. Cardiovascular risk increases as women reach and extend beyond menopause, partly reflective of dyslipidemia. In addition, women with polycystic ovary syndrome display a cluster of risk factors reminiscent of the metabolic syndrome. Certain ethnic groups are also at increased risk for type 2 diabetes or the metabolic syndrome. Dyslipidemia contributes significantly to overall cardiovascular risk in the elderly, and the frequency of children and adolescents presenting with type 2 diabetes or metabolic syndrome is increasing worldwide. Physicians should be aware of the possibility of mixed dyslipidemia in patients at elevated cardiometabolic risk. However, while combination therapy may successfully correct the associated dyslipidemia, it remains to be established whether the addition of a second agent improves coronary risk beyond statin monotherapy.

An obesity/cardiometabolic risk reduction disease management program: a population-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Villagra, Victor G

2009-04-01

Obesity is a critical health concern that has captured the attention of public and private healthcare payers who are interested in controlling costs and mitigating the long-term economic consequences of the obesity epidemic. Population-based approaches to obesity management have been proposed that take advantage of a chronic care model (CCM), including patient self-care, the use of community-based resources, and the realization of care continuity through ongoing communications with patients, information technology, and public policy changes. Payer-sponsored disease management programs represent an important conduit to delivering population-based care founded on similar CCM concepts. Disease management is founded on population-based disease identification, evidence-based care protocols, and collaborative practices between clinicians. While substantial clinician training, technology infrastructure commitments, and financial support at the payer level will be needed for the success of disease management programs in obesity and cardiometabolic risk reduction, these barriers can be overcome with the proper commitment. Disease management programs represent an important tool to combat the growing societal risks of overweight and obesity.

Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

2013-02-01

Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Using risk-tracing snowball approach to increase HIV case detection among high-risk populations in Cambodia: an intervention study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chhim, Srean; Macom, John; Pav, Chettana; Nim, Nirada; Yun, Phearun; Seng, Sopheap; Chhim, Kolab; Tuot, Sovannary; Yi, Siyan

2017-10-18

Early HIV diagnosis and initiation onto antiretroviral therapy may prevent ongoing spread of HIV. Risk Tracing Snowball Approach (RTSA) has been shown to be effective in detecting new HIV cases in other settings. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of RTSA in increasing the rate of newly identified HIV cases among high-risk populations. Our second objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of RTSA, as compared to the walk-in group, in increasing the number of HIV tests and early case detection. This study was conducted from April 1 to September 30, 2016 at two NGO clinics in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Respondent driven sampling method was adapted to develop RTSA to reach high-risk populations, including key populations and the general population who have social connections with key populations. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted. During the implementation period, 721 clients walked in for HIV testing (walk-in group), and all were invited to be seeds. Of the invited clients, 36.6% agreed to serve as seeds. Throughout the implementation, 6195 coupons were distributed to seeds or recruiters, and resulted in 1572 clients visiting the two clinics with coupons (RTSA group), for a coupon return rate of 25.3%. The rate of newly identified HIV cases among the RTSA group was significantly lower compared to that in walk-in group. However, the highest number of newly identified HIV cases was found during the implementation period, compared to both pre- and post-implementation period. Although statistically not significant, the mean CD4 count of newly identified HIV cases detected through RTSA was almost 200 cells/mm3 higher than that in the walk-in group. Although the rate of newly identified HIV cases among the RTSA group was lower than that in the walk-in group, the inclusion of RTSA in addition to the traditional walk-in method boosted new HIV case detection in the two participating clinics. A higher mean CD4

Risk of adverse birth outcomes in populations living near landfill sites

Science.gov (United States)

Elliott, Paul; Briggs, David; Morris, Sara; de Hoogh, Cornelis; Hurt, Christopher; Jensen, Tina Kold; Maitland, Ian; Richardson, Sylvia; Wakefield, Jon; Jarup, Lars

2001-01-01

Objective To investigate the risk of adverse birth outcomes associated with residence near landfill sites in Great Britain. Design Geographical study of risks of adverse birth outcomes in populations living within 2 km of 9565 landfill sites operational at some time between 1982 and 1997 (from a total of 19 196 sites) compared with those living further away. Setting Great Britain. Subjects Over 8.2 million live births, 43 471 stillbirths, and 124 597 congenital anomalies (including terminations). Main outcome measures All congenital anomalies combined, some specific anomalies, and prevalence of low and very low birth weight (<2500 g and <1500 g). Results For all anomalies combined, relative risk of residence near landfill sites (all waste types) was 0.92 (99% confidence interval 0.907 to 0.923) unadjusted, and 1.01 (1.005 to 1.023) adjusted for confounders. Adjusted risks were 1.05 (1.01 to 1.10) for neural tube defects, 0.96 (0.93 to 0.99) for cardiovascular defects, 1.07 (1.04 to 1.10) for hypospadias and epispadias (with no excess of surgical correction), 1.08 (1.01 to 1.15) for abdominal wall defects, 1.19 (1.05 to 1.34) for surgical correction of gastroschisis and exomphalos, and 1.05 (1.047 to 1.055) and 1.04 (1.03 to 1.05) for low and very low birth weight respectively. There was no excess risk of stillbirth. Findings for special (hazardous) waste sites did not differ systematically from those for non-special sites. For some specific anomalies, higher risks were found in the period before opening compared with after opening of a landfill site, especially hospital admissions for abdominal wall defects. Conclusions We found small excess risks of congenital anomalies and low and very low birth weight in populations living near landfill sites. No causal mechanisms are available to explain these findings, and alternative explanations include data artefacts and residual confounding. Further studies are needed to help differentiate between the various

Proton Pump Inhibitor Usage and the Risk of Myocardial Infarction in the General Population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nigam H Shah

Full Text Available Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs have been associated with adverse clinical outcomes amongst clopidogrel users after an acute coronary syndrome. Recent pre-clinical results suggest that this risk might extend to subjects without any prior history of cardiovascular disease. We explore this potential risk in the general population via data-mining approaches.Using a novel approach for mining clinical data for pharmacovigilance, we queried over 16 million clinical documents on 2.9 million individuals to examine whether PPI usage was associated with cardiovascular risk in the general population.In multiple data sources, we found gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD patients exposed to PPIs to have a 1.16 fold increased association (95% CI 1.09-1.24 with myocardial infarction (MI. Survival analysis in a prospective cohort found a two-fold (HR = 2.00; 95% CI 1.07-3.78; P = 0.031 increase in association with cardiovascular mortality. We found that this association exists regardless of clopidogrel use. We also found that H2 blockers, an alternate treatment for GERD, were not associated with increased cardiovascular risk; had they been in place, such pharmacovigilance algorithms could have flagged this risk as early as the year 2000.Consistent with our pre-clinical findings that PPIs may adversely impact vascular function, our data-mining study supports the association of PPI exposure with risk for MI in the general population. These data provide an example of how a combination of experimental studies and data-mining approaches can be applied to prioritize drug safety signals for further investigation.

Characteristics of cardiovascular risk factors in an urban and rural population of the Peruvian jungle - July, 2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yordan Martínez-Espichán

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Objective: To determine the characteristics of the place of residence and the cardiovascular risk factors in a Peruvian jungle population in July 2014. Materials and methods: A descriptive cross-sectional study conducted in individuals between 30 and 74 years old without a diagnosis of or treatment for a cardiovascular disease in an urban and rural population of the district of Yantaló. The sample was obtained using the Power Analysis and Sample Size Software (PASS program, and consisted of 268 people (152 urban and 116 rural residents. The studied factors were hypertension (HBP, diabetes mellitus (DM, body mass index (BMI, waist-hip ratio (WHR and smoking. Results: The urban population had higher rates of hypertension (18.4%, while the other risk factors showed no significant differences between the two populations. Conclusions: The only risk factor that showed a significant association with the place of residence was hypertension. In contrast, the other risk factors of the study showed no differences between the two populations, which demonstrates that the district of Yantaló is involved in a process of epidemiological transition due to urbanization.

Assessing privacy risks in population health publications using a checklist-based approach.

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O'Keefe, Christine M; Ickowicz, Adrien; Churches, Tim; Westcott, Mark; O'Sullivan, Maree; Khan, Atikur

2017-11-10

Recent growth in the number of population health researchers accessing detailed datasets, either on their own computers or through virtual data centers, has the potential to increase privacy risks. In response, a checklist for identifying and reducing privacy risks in population health analysis outputs has been proposed for use by researchers themselves. In this study we explore the usability and reliability of such an approach by investigating whether different users identify the same privacy risks on applying the checklist to a sample of publications. The checklist was applied to a sample of 100 academic population health publications distributed among 5 readers. Cohen's κ was used to measure interrater agreement. Of the 566 instances of statistical output types found in the 100 publications, the most frequently occurring were counts, summary statistics, plots, and model outputs. Application of the checklist identified 128 outputs (22.6%) with potential privacy concerns. Most of these were associated with the reporting of small counts. Among these identified outputs, the readers found no substantial actual privacy concerns when context was taken into account. Interrater agreement for identifying potential privacy concerns was generally good. This study has demonstrated that a checklist can be a reliable tool to assist researchers with anonymizing analysis outputs in population health research. This further suggests that such an approach may have the potential to be developed into a broadly applicable standard providing consistent confidentiality protection across multiple analyses of the same data. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Interleukin-1 gene locus polymorphisms are associated with risk to breast cancer in Croatian population

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KAARVATN, MARIKKEN HEILAND; KROG EFTEDAL, RANDI; VRBANEC, JURICA; JOTANOVIC, ZDRAVKO; ETOKEBE, GODFREY E.; BALEN, SANJA; KULIC, ANA; DEMBIC, ZLATKO

2012-01-01

Breast cancer has a complex genetic susceptibility. Innate and adaptive immunity can additionally increase the genetic risk to breast cancer development. We typed polymorphisms in the genes of the interleukin(IL)-1 and IL-17 proinflammatory cytokines in a case-control study in Caucasian population from Croatia. We compared the allelic and genotypic frequencies between patients (n=194), healthy women (n=188) and general population (n=531). The risk for breast cancer has been significantly diff...

Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study.

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Knight, Josh; Wells, Susan; Marshall, Roger; Exeter, Daniel; Jackson, Rod

2017-01-01

Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients' multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country's total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30-84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each 'synthetic' person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere.

Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors.

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Razavian, Narges; Blecker, Saul; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Smith-McLallen, Aaron; Nigam, Somesh; Sontag, David

2015-12-01

We present a new approach to population health, in which data-driven predictive models are learned for outcomes such as type 2 diabetes. Our approach enables risk assessment from readily available electronic claims data on large populations, without additional screening cost. Proposed model uncovers early and late-stage risk factors. Using administrative claims, pharmacy records, healthcare utilization, and laboratory results of 4.1 million individuals between 2005 and 2009, an initial set of 42,000 variables were derived that together describe the full health status and history of every individual. Machine learning was then used to methodically enhance predictive variable set and fit models predicting onset of type 2 diabetes in 2009-2011, 2010-2012, and 2011-2013. We compared the enhanced model with a parsimonious model consisting of known diabetes risk factors in a real-world environment, where missing values are common and prevalent. Furthermore, we analyzed novel and known risk factors emerging from the model at different age groups at different stages before the onset. Parsimonious model using 21 classic diabetes risk factors resulted in area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.75 for diabetes prediction within a 2-year window following the baseline. The enhanced model increased the AUC to 0.80, with about 900 variables selected as predictive (p differences between AUCs). Similar improvements were observed for models predicting diabetes onset 1-3 years and 2-4 years after baseline. The enhanced model improved positive predictive value by at least 50% and identified novel surrogate risk factors for type 2 diabetes, such as chronic liver disease (odds ratio [OR] 3.71), high alanine aminotransferase (OR 2.26), esophageal reflux (OR 1.85), and history of acute bronchitis (OR 1.45). Liver risk factors emerge later in the process of diabetes development compared with obesity-related factors such as hypertension and high hemoglobin A1c. In conclusion, population-level risk

Prevalence of rearrangements in the 22q11.2 region and population-based risk of neuropsychiatric and developmental disorders in a Danish population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Line; Sparsø, Thomas; Weinsheimer, Shantel M

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND: Although the pathogenic nature of copy number variants (CNVs) on chromosome 22q11.2 has been recognised for decades, unbiased estimates of their population prevalence, mortality, disease risks, and diagnostic trajectories are absent. We aimed to provide the true population prevalence ...

Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT): predictive algorithm for assessing CVD risk in the community setting. A study protocol.

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Taljaard, Monica; Tuna, Meltem; Bennett, Carol; Perez, Richard; Rosella, Laura; Tu, Jack V; Sanmartin, Claudia; Hennessy, Deirdre; Tanuseputro, Peter; Lebenbaum, Michael; Manuel, Douglas G

2014-10-23

Recent publications have called for substantial improvements in the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of prediction models. Publication of study protocols, with prespecification of key aspects of the analysis plan, can help to improve transparency, increase quality and protect against increased type I error. Valid population-based risk algorithms are essential for population health planning and policy decision-making. The purpose of this study is to develop, evaluate and apply cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk algorithms for the population setting. The Ontario sample of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2001, 2003, 2005; 77,251 respondents) will be used to assess risk factors focusing on health behaviours (physical activity, diet, smoking and alcohol use). Incident CVD outcomes will be assessed through linkage to administrative healthcare databases (619,886 person-years of follow-up until 31 December 2011). Sociodemographic factors (age, sex, immigrant status, education) and mediating factors such as presence of diabetes and hypertension will be included as predictors. Algorithms will be developed using competing risks survival analysis. The analysis plan adheres to published recommendations for the development of valid prediction models to limit the risk of overfitting and improve the quality of predictions. Key considerations are fully prespecifying the predictor variables; appropriate handling of missing data; use of flexible functions for continuous predictors; and avoiding data-driven variable selection procedures. The 2007 and 2009 surveys (approximately 50,000 respondents) will be used for validation. Calibration will be assessed overall and in predefined subgroups of importance to clinicians and policymakers. This study has been approved by the Ottawa Health Science Network Research Ethics Board. The findings will be disseminated through professional and scientific conferences, and in peer-reviewed journals. The algorithm will be accessible

Social deprivation and population density are not associated with small area risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

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Rooney, James P K; Tobin, Katy; Crampsie, Arlene; Vajda, Alice; Heverin, Mark; McLaughlin, Russell; Staines, Anthony; Hardiman, Orla

2015-10-01

Evidence of an association between areal ALS risk and population density has been previously reported. We aim to examine ALS spatial incidence in Ireland using small areas, to compare this analysis with our previous analysis of larger areas and to examine the associations between population density, social deprivation and ALS incidence. Residential area social deprivation has not been previously investigated as a risk factor for ALS. Using the Irish ALS register, we included all cases of ALS diagnosed in Ireland from 1995-2013. 2006 census data was used to calculate age and sex standardised expected cases per small area. Social deprivation was assessed using the pobalHP deprivation index. Bayesian smoothing was used to calculate small area relative risk for ALS, whilst cluster analysis was performed using SaTScan. The effects of population density and social deprivation were tested in two ways: (1) as covariates in the Bayesian spatial model; (2) via post-Bayesian regression. 1701 cases were included. Bayesian smoothed maps of relative risk at small area resolution matched closely to our previous analysis at a larger area resolution. Cluster analysis identified two areas of significant low risk. These areas did not correlate with population density or social deprivation indices. Two areas showing low frequency of ALS have been identified in the Republic of Ireland. These areas do not correlate with population density or residential area social deprivation, indicating that other reasons, such as genetic admixture may account for the observed findings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

South Asians and risk of cardiovascular disease: current insights and trends.

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Mangalmurti, Sandeep S; Paley, Ari; Gany, Francesca; Fisher, Edward A; Hochman, Judith S

2010-01-01

Patients from the Indian subcontinent have a distinct cardiovascular risk profile with profound health consequences. South Asians tend to develop more severe coronary artery disease at a younger age, and may also suffer from earlier myocardial infarction and heart failure. The genesis of this risk is multi-factorial. One important culprit is increased insulin resistance, possibly due to recently identified genetic polymorphisms. Another possible explanation is subclinical inflammation and a prothrombotic environment, as evidenced by increased levels of homocysteine, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, and fibrinogen. The lipid profile of South Asians may play a role, as this population is known to have elevated levels of lipoprotein (a), as well as lower levels of HDL. In addition, this HDL may be dysfunctional, as this population may have a higher prevalence of low levels of HDL2b, as well as an increased preponderance of smaller HDL. Current guidelines for primary and secondary prevention have not reflected our growing insight into the unique characteristics of the South Asian population, and may need to evolve to reflect our knowledge.

GIS Database and Google Map of the Population at Risk of Cholangiocarcinoma in Mueang Yang District, Nakhon Ratchasima Province of Thailand.

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Kaewpitoon, Soraya J; Rujirakul, Ratana; Joosiri, Apinya; Jantakate, Sirinun; Sangkudloa, Amnat; Kaewthani, Sarochinee; Chimplee, Kanokporn; Khemplila, Kritsakorn; Kaewpitoon, Natthawut

2016-01-01

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a serious problem in Thailand, particularly in the northeastern and northern regions. Database of population at risk are need required for monitoring, surveillance, home health care, and home visit. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a geographic information system (GIS) database and Google map of the population at risk of CCA in Mueang Yang district, Nakhon Ratchasima province, northeastern Thailand during June to October 2015. Populations at risk were screened using the Korat CCA verbal screening test (KCVST). Software included Microsoft Excel, ArcGIS, and Google Maps. The secondary data included the point of villages, sub-district boundaries, district boundaries, point of hospital in Mueang Yang district, used for created the spatial databese. The populations at risk for CCA and opisthorchiasis were used to create an arttribute database. Data were tranfered to WGS84 UTM ZONE 48. After the conversion, all of the data were imported into Google Earth using online web pages www.earthpoint.us. Some 222 from a 4,800 population at risk for CCA constituted a high risk group. Geo-visual display available at following www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/ edit?mid=zPxtcHv_iDLo.kvPpxl5mAs90 and hl=th. Geo-visual display 5 layers including: layer 1, village location and number of the population at risk for CCA; layer 2, sub-district health promotion hospital in Mueang Yang district and number of opisthorchiasis; layer 3, sub-district district and the number of population at risk for CCA; layer 4, district hospital and the number of population at risk for CCA and number of opisthorchiasis; and layer 5, district and the number of population at risk for CCA and number of opisthorchiasis. This GIS database and Google map production process is suitable for further monitoring, surveillance, and home health care for CCA sufferers.

[New risks of addiction for new populations: the example of hackers].

Science.gov (United States)

Tisserand, I N

2000-10-01

Our purpose was to examine recent social and technical habits related to high-tech environments. Our goal was to show that the prevention of risk behaviors due to training in data processing, requires an interdisciplinary approach where medical anthropology could benefit from and exchange of complementary information sources (particularly from psychiatrics and psychoanalysis). We used this approach to search for solutions regarding new kinds of addiction. When identifying pathological conditions and proposing appropriate care, these solutions must take into consideration the progressive loss of human nature in data processing environments and the very important and highly sophisticated relationship established between the human being and the computer. We looked at the hacker population as a modern tribe and marginal group. Our analysis led to a better understanding of this kind of artificial culture, sometimes called a "high-tech" or "cyber" culture. The hacker population is integrating new rituals, languages and special rhythms which induce addictions. We show how high-tech environments operating in e-time and e-life induce addictions. This work illustrates a classical anthropological approach to the question (ethnological fields, interviews, literature analysis). The major challenge is to explain how high-tech environments present high risks for dependency in the hacker population and other, unwarned, computer (ab)users.

Individual Breast Cancer risk assessment in Underserved Populations: Integrating empirical Bioethics and Health Disparities Research

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Anderson, Emily E.; Hoskins, Kent

2013-01-01

Research suggests that individual breast cancer risk assessment may improve adherence to recommended screening and prevention guidelines, thereby decreasing morbidity and mortality. Further research on the use of risk assessment models in underserved minority populations is critical to informing national public health efforts to eliminate breast cancer disparities. However, implementing individual breast cancer risk assessment in underserved patient populations raises particular ethical issues that require further examination. After reviewing these issues, we will discuss how empirical bioethics research can be integrated with health disparities research to inform the translation of research findings. Our in-progress National Cancer Institute (NCI) funded study, How Do Underserved Minority Women Think About Breast Cancer?, conducted in the context of a larger study on individual breast cancer risk assessment, is presented as a model. PMID:23124498

Natural hazard risk perception of Italian population: case studies along national territory.

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Gravina, Teresita; Tupputi Schinosa, Francesca De Luca; Zuddas, Isabella; Preto, Mattia; Marengo, Angelo; Esposito, Alessandro; Figliozzi, Emanuele; Rapinatore, Matteo

2015-04-01

Risk perception is judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of risks, in last few years risk perception studies focused on provide cognitive elements to communication experts responsible in order to design citizenship information and awareness appropriate strategies. Several authors in order to determine natural hazards risk (Seismic, landslides, cyclones, flood, Volcanic) perception used questionnaires as tool for providing reliable quantitative data and permitting comparison the results with those of similar surveys. In Italy, risk perception studies based on surveys, were also carried out in order to investigate on national importance Natural risk, in particular on Somma-Vesuvio and Phlegrean Fields volcanic Risks, but lacked risk perception studies on local situation distributed on whole national territory. National importance natural hazard were frequently reported by national mass media and there were debate about emergencies civil protection plans, otherwise could be difficult to obtain information on bonded and regional nature natural hazard which were diffuses along National territory. In fact, Italian peninsula was a younger geological area subjected to endogenous phenomena (volcanoes, earthquake) and exogenous phenomena which determine land evolution and natural hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole) for population. For this reason we decided to investigate on natural risks perception in different Italian place were natural hazard were taken place but not reported from mass media, as were only local relevant or historical event. We carried out surveys in different Italian place interested by different types of natural Hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole, volcanic phenomena and earthquake) and compared results, in order to understand population perception level, awareness and civil protection exercises preparation. Our findings support that risks

A community based study of NCD risk factors among adult population in Dehradun, India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Himanshu Agarwal

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Background: A Non-Communicable disease (NCD is one which is non-infectious and non-transmissible among people. NCDs account for leading causes of death and disease burden worldwide. To decrease the burden of NCDs experts stress on the importance of prevention and control with respect to modifiable risk factors. The World Health Organization's World Health Report 2002 identified tobacco use, alcohol consumption, overweight, physical inactivity, high blood pressure and high cholesterol as the most important risk factors for NCDs.(1  Aims & Objectives: 1. To know the prevalence of risk factors leading to NCDs in the study population. 2. To know the socio-demographic correlates associated with risk factors of NCDs. 3. To suggest appropriate recommendations regarding modifiable risk factors of NCDs in study population. Material & Methods: A Cross-sectional study, Community-based study among 18+ population in field practice areas of Community Medicine Department, SGRRIM&HS, Dehradun. Sample Size: 300 each in urban and rural, total 60. Results: The prevalence of Smoking was 11.3%, Smokeless tobacco use 10.5%, Alcohol use 13.2%, Unhealthy diet 99.5%, Low physical activity 0.8%, High BMI (≥ 25 kg/m2 51.2%, above normal waist-hip ratio 57.0%, Raised blood pressure 58.5% and raised blood sugar 25.2%. Conclusion: Smoking is significantly associated with age, sex and occupation. Raised blood pressure is significantly associated with age, sex and social class.

First Steps to School Readiness: South Carolina's Response to At-Risk Early Childhood Population.

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Buford, Rhonda; Stegelin, Dolores A.

2003-01-01

Describes South Carolina's new state early childhood program, First Steps to School Readiness. Includes a profile of the state's at-risk child population, noting poverty and education risk indicators, and describing key program components. The article discusses program oversight, local program partnerships, program funding mechanisms, and local…

Prenatal screening for psychosocial risks in a high risk-population in Peru using the KINDEX interview.

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Spyridou, Andria; Schauer, Maggie; Ruf-Leuschner, Martina

2016-01-22

Prenatal stress and other prenatal risk factors (e.g. intimate partner violence) have a negative impact on mother's health, fetal development as well as enduring adverse effects on the neuro-cognitive, behavioral and physical health of the child. Mothers of low socio-economic status and especially those living in crime-ridden areas are even more exposed to a host of risk factors. Societies of extreme violence, poverty and inequalities, often present difficulties to provide adequate mental health care to the most needed populations. The KINDEX, a brief standardized instrument that assesses 11 different risk factors was used by midwives to identify pregnant women at-risk, in a suburban area with one of the highest levels of domestic violence in Lima. The instrument was designed to be used by medical staff to identify high-risk child-bearing women and, based on the results, to refer them to the adequate psychological or social support providers. The aim of this study is to assess the feasibility of psychosocial screening using the KINDEX in a Latin American Country for the first time, and to explore the relationship of the KINDEX with thee major risk areas, maternal psychopathology, perceived stress and traumatic experiences. The study was conducted in cooperation with the gynecological department of a general hospital in a suburban area of Lima. Nine midwives conducted interviews using the KINDEX of ninety-five pregnant women attending the gynecological unit of the hospital. From these, forty pregnant women were re-interviewed by a clinical psychologist using established instruments in order to assess the feasibility of the prenatal assessment in public health settings and the relationship of the KINDEX with maternal perceived stress, psychopathology symptoms and trauma load during pregnancy. We found high rates of risk factors in the examined pregnant women comparable with those found in the general population. Significant correlations were found between the KINDEX

Population risk perceptions of global warming in Australia.

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Agho, Kingsley; Stevens, Garry; Taylor, Mel; Barr, Margo; Raphael, Beverley

2010-11-01

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), global warming has the potential to dramatically disrupt some of life's essential requirements for health, water, air and food. Understanding how Australians perceive the risk of global warming is essential for climate change policy and planning. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of, and socio-demographic factors associated with, high levels of perceived likelihood that global warming would worsen, concern for self and family and reported behaviour changes. A module of questions on global warming was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey in the second quarter of 2007. This Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) was completed by a representative sample of 2004 adults. The weighted sample was comparable to the Australian population. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted to examine the socio-demographic and general health factors. Overall 62.1% perceived that global warming was likely to worsen; 56.3% were very or extremely concerned that they or their family would be directly affected by global warming; and 77.6% stated that they had made some level of change to the way they lived their lives, because of the possibility of global warming. After controlling for confounding factors, multivariate analyses revealed that those with high levels of psychological distress were 2.17 (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=2.17; CI: 1.16-4.03; P=0.015) times more likely to be concerned about global warming than those with low psychological distress levels. Those with a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in urban areas were significantly more likely to think that global warming would worsen compared to those without a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in the rural areas. Females were significantly (AOR=1.69; CI: 1.23-2.33; P=0.001) more likely to report they had made changes to the way they lived their lives due to the risk of

The effects of socioeconomic status on stroke risk and outcomes

OpenAIRE

Marshall, Iain James; Wang, Yanzhong; Crichton, Siobhan Laura; McKevitt, Christopher John; Rudd, Anthony; Wolfe, Charles David Alexander

2015-01-01

The latest evidence on socioeconomic status and stroke shows that stroke not only disproportionately affects low-income and middle-income countries, but also socioeconomically deprived populations within high-income countries. These disparities are reflected not only in risk of stroke but also in short-term and long-term outcomes after stroke. Increased average levels of conventional risk factors (eg, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, excessive alcohol intake, smoking, obesity, and sedentary lif...

Risk and Aging Vascular in a city population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrique Ruiz Mori

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Objetive: Cardiovascular diseases that every year have more prevalence in the country, are the product of risky factors, many of them modifiable and preventable. The objective of the present study has been to know and analyze the factors of cardiovascular risk and determine the vascular age in the population of Lima. Material and methods: A descriptive cross sectional study, carried out in March 2016, in the southern, northern and eastern cones of Metropolitan Lima, in people older than 30 and younger than 75 years old. The survey structured for the study collected the following variables: gender, age, arterial hypertension, smoking, diabetes, physical activity and type of diet. Blood presure, weight and tall were recorded. Results: In total, 485 participants were included, 197 men and 288 women. The age was 49,5± 9,9 years old. The more frequent risky factor was the unhealthy diet (47,6%, followed by sedentary lifestyle (42,5%. Arterial hypertension was observed in 20,8%, being more frequent in men. 85.2% did not smoke and overweight was found in 47.2%, being its frequency higher in women. The low risk was determined in 60,4% and it was predominant in women, while higher risk was 18.6% in men. The average cardiovascular age was higher in 1,4 years compared to the chronological age beign more marked in men, in whom the difference was 5,8 years between 50 and 59 years old. Conclusions: The more frecuente cardiovascular risk has been unhealthy diet followed by sedentary lifestyle. The high risk was 18,6% predominating in

Suicide and Suicide Risk in Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Populations: Review and Recommendations

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Haas, Ann P.; Eliason, Mickey; Mays, Vickie M.; Mathy, Robin M.; Cochran, Susan D.; D'Augelli, Anthony R.; Silverman, Morton M.; Fisher, Prudence W.; Hughes, Tonda; Rosario, Margaret; Russell, Stephen T.; Malley, Effie; Reed, Jerry; Litts, David A.; Haller, Ellen; Sell, Randall L.; Remafedi, Gary; Bradford, Judith; Beautrais, Annette L.; Brown, Gregory K.; Diamond, Gary M.; Friedman, Mark S.; Garofalo, Robert; Turner, Mason S.; Hollibaugh, Amber; Clayton, Paula J.

2011-01-01

Despite strong indications of elevated risk of suicidal behavior in lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender people, limited attention has been given to research, interventions or suicide prevention programs targeting these populations. This article is a culmination of a three-year effort by an expert panel to address the need for better understanding of suicidal behavior and suicide risk in sexual minority populations, and stimulate the development of needed prevention strategies, interventions and policy changes. This article summarizes existing research findings, and makes recommendations for addressing knowledge gaps and applying current knowledge to relevant areas of suicide prevention practice. PMID:21213174

Pregnancy exposures and risk of childhood asthma admission in a population birth cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Algert, Charles S; Bowen, Jennifer R; Lain, Samantha L; Allen, Hugh D; Vivian-Taylor, Josephine M; Roberts, Christine L

2011-12-01

There is increasing interest in the potential for in utero exposures to affect the risk of asthma. We used population data to explore the associations between perinatal conditions and the risk of hospital admission with asthma between the 2nd and 5th birthday. The study population was 240,511 singleton infants born during 2001-2003. Birth records and longitudinally linked hospital admissions were used to identify asthma admissions and to model potential risk factors. A total of 7245 children (3.0%) had one or more childhood admissions with asthma. In utero infectious exposures associated with childhood asthma were maternal antenatal admission with a urinary tract infection (UTI) [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.49, 95% confidence interval (1.23-1.79)] and pre-term pre-labor rupture of membranes (PROM) [aOR = 1.23 (1.04-1.45)]. There was no evidence that gestational age at time of first antenatal UTI admission (UTI and PROM carry an increased risk of childhood asthma admission, this suggests that the immune system response generally is the relevant factor rather than a specific organism. The season-associated risk is consistent with early pregnancy exposures such as the winter flu season or low vitamin D. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Association Between Educational Level and Risk of Cancer in HIV-infected Individuals and the Background Population: Population-based Cohort Study 1995-2011.

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Legarth, Rebecca; Omland, Lars H; Dalton, Susanne O; Kronborg, Gitte; Larsen, Carsten S; Pedersen, Court; Pedersen, Gitte; Gerstoft, Jan; Obel, Niels

2015-11-15

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals have increased risk of cancer. To our knowledge, no previous study has examined the impact of socioeconomic position on risk and prognosis of cancer in HIV infection. Population-based cohort-study, including HIV-infected individuals diagnosed (without intravenous drug abuse or hepatitis C infection) (n = 3205), and a background population cohort matched by age, gender, and country of birth (n = 22 435) were analyzed. Educational level (low or high) and cancer events were identified in Danish national registers. Cumulative incidences, incidence rate ratios (IRRs), and survival using Kaplan-Meier methods were estimated. Low educational level was associated with increased risk of cancer among HIV-infected individuals compared to population controls: all (adjusted-IRRs: 1.4 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.1-1.7] vs 1.1 [95% CI, .9-1.2]), tobacco- and alcohol-related (2.1 [95% CI, 1.3-3.4] vs 1.3 [95% CI, 1.1-1.6]), and other (1.7 [95% CI, 1.1-2.8] vs 0.9 [95% CI, .7-1.0]). Educational level was not associated with infection-related or ill-defined cancers. One-year-survival was not associated with educational level, but HIV-infected individuals with low educational level had lower 5-year-survival following infection-related and ill-defined cancers. Education is associated with risk and prognosis of some cancers in HIV infection, and diverges from what is observed in the background population. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Validation of a risk prediction model for Barrett’s esophagus in an Australian population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ireland CJ

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Colin J Ireland,1 Andrea L Gordon,2 Sarah K Thompson,3 David I Watson,4 David C Whiteman,5 Richard L Reed,6 Adrian Esterman1,7 1School of Nursing and Midwifery, Division of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 2School of Pharmacy and Medical Science, Division of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 3Discipline of Surgery, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 4Department of Surgery, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia; 5Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Herston, QLD, Australia; 6Discipline of General Practice, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia; 7Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD, Australia Background: Esophageal adenocarcinoma is a disease that has a high mortality rate, the only known precursor being Barrett’s esophagus (BE. While screening for BE is not cost-effective at the population level, targeted screening might be beneficial. We have developed a risk prediction model to identify people with BE, and here we present the external validation of this model. Materials and methods: A cohort study was undertaken to validate a risk prediction model for BE. Individuals with endoscopy and histopathology proven BE completed a questionnaire containing variables previously identified as risk factors for this condition. Their responses were combined with data from a population sample for analysis. Risk scores were derived for each participant. Overall performance of the risk prediction model in terms of calibration and discrimination was assessed. Results: Scores from 95 individuals with BE and 636 individuals from the general population were analyzed. The Brier score was 0.118, suggesting reasonable overall performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78–0.87. The Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic was p=0

Association of Htra1 gene polymorphisms with the risk of developing AMD in Iranian population.

Science.gov (United States)

Askari, Mohammad; Nikpoor, Amin Reza; Gorjipour, Fazel; Mazidi, Mohsen; Sanati, Mohammad Hosein; Aryan, Hajar; Irani, Alireza; Ghasemi Falavarjani, Khalil; Nazari, Hossein; Mousavizadeh, Kazem

2015-10-01

Half of the cases of vision loss in people under 60 years of age have been attributed to age-related macular degeneration (AMD). This is a multifactorial disease with late onset. It has been demonstrated that many different genetic loci are implicated in the risk of developing AMD in different populations. In the current study, we investigated the association of high-temperature ‎requirement A-1 (HTRA1) gene polymorphisms with the risk of developing AMD in the Iranian population. Genomic DNA samples were extracted from 120 patients with AMD and 120 healthy age- and sex-matched controls. A 385 base-pair fragment of the HTRA1 gene promoter region was amplified using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique and sequenced. The frequencies of the alleles were calculated and statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software. Our study demonstrated that the rate of polymorphisms rs11200638 -625 G>A and rs2672598 -487T>C were significantly greater in AMD patients than in healthy controls from the Iranian population. The results of our study indicate that HTRA1 gene promoter region polymorphisms are associated with the risk of developing AMD in the Iranian population.

Dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk in a Korean population

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Park, Yoon; Lee, Jeonghee; Oh, Jae Hwan; Shin, Aesun; Kim, Jeongseon

2016-01-01

Abstract Colorectal cancer (CRC) has been recognized as one of the major malignancies in Korea. Analyses of dietary patterns can provide insight into the complex interactions of foods, nutrients, and biologically active components within a diet, which vary among populations. We aimed to investigate the associations between dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk in Koreans. In a study of 923 cases and 1846 controls, principal component analysis was used to identify dietary patterns based on 33 predefined food groups using a 106-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire (SQFFQ). The associations between dietary patterns and CRC risk were assessed using binary and polytomous logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Three dietary patterns (traditional, Westernized, and prudent) were derived. The proportion of total variation explained by 3 patterns was 24.2% for men and 25.3% for women. The traditional and prudent patterns were inversely associated with CRC risk [OR and 95% CI for the highest intake tertile of pattern score vs. the lowest = 0.35 (0.27–0.46) and 0.37 (0.28–0.48), respectively], whereas the Westernized pattern showed a positive association, especially among women [OR = 2.13 (1.35–3.34) for the highest tertile vs. the lowest]. A decrease in CRC risk among those with the highest intake of the prudent pattern was observed in all anatomical subsites in both men [OR = 0.36 (0.19–0.68) for proximal colon; 0.21 (0.12–0.36) for distal colon; 0.28 (0.18–0.44) for rectum] and women [OR = 0.28 (0.11–0.71); 0.27 (0.13–0.54); 0.45 (0.25–0.83)]. Our results indicate that individuals who prefer the Westernized dietary pattern should be made aware of their increased CRC risk. The traditional dietary pattern and the prudent pattern, which are rich in fruits and dairy products, are recommended for the Korean population to prevent CRC. PMID:27336862

Recurrence risk of low Apgar score among term singletons: a population-based cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ensing, Sabine; Schaaf, Jelle M.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Mol, Ben W. J.; Ravelli, Anita C. J.

2014-01-01

To examine the risk of recurrence of low Apgar score in a subsequent term singleton pregnancy. Population-based cohort study. The Netherlands. A total of 190,725 women with two subsequent singleton term live births between 1999 and 2007. We calculated the recurrence risk of low Apgar score after

Migraine and risk of cardiovascular diseases: Danish population based matched cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Adelborg, Kasper; Szépligeti, Szimonetta Komjáthiné; Holland-Bill, Louise; Ehrenstein, Vera; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet; Henderson, Victor W; Sørensen, Henrik Toft

2018-01-31

To examine the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke (ischaemic and haemorrhagic), peripheral artery disease, venous thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, and heart failure in patients with migraine and in a general population comparison cohort. Nationwide, population based cohort study. All Danish hospitals and hospital outpatient clinics from 1995 to 2013. 51 032 patients with migraine and 510 320 people from the general population matched on age, sex, and calendar year. Comorbidity adjusted hazard ratios of cardiovascular outcomes based on Cox regression analysis. Higher absolute risks were observed among patients with incident migraine than in the general population across most outcomes and follow-up periods. After 19 years of follow-up, the cumulative incidences per 1000 people for the migraine cohort compared with the general population were 25 v 17 for myocardial infarction, 45 v 25 for ischaemic stroke, 11 v 6 for haemorrhagic stroke, 13 v 11 for peripheral artery disease, 27 v 18 for venous thromboembolism, 47 v 34 for atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, and 19 v 18 for heart failure. Correspondingly, migraine was positively associated with myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratio 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.36 to 1.64), ischaemic stroke (2.26, 2.11 to 2.41), and haemorrhagic stroke (1.94, 1.68 to 2.23), as well as venous thromboembolism (1.59, 1.45 to 1.74) and atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (1.25, 1.16 to 1.36). No meaningful association was found with peripheral artery disease (adjusted hazard ratio 1.12, 0.96 to 1.30) or heart failure (1.04, 0.93 to 1.16). The associations, particularly for stroke outcomes, were stronger during the short term (0-1 years) after diagnosis than the long term (up to 19 years), in patients with aura than in those without aura, and in women than in men. In a subcohort of patients, the associations persisted after additional multivariable adjustment for body mass index and smoking

Implications of supermarket access, neighbourhood walkability and poverty rates for diabetes risk in an employee population.

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Herrick, Cynthia J; Yount, Byron W; Eyler, Amy A

2016-08-01

Diabetes is a growing public health problem, and the environment in which people live and work may affect diabetes risk. The goal of the present study was to examine the association between multiple aspects of environment and diabetes risk in an employee population. This was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis. Home environment variables were derived using employees' zip code. Descriptive statistics were run on all individual- and zip-code-level variables, stratified by diabetes risk and worksite. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was then conducted to determine the strongest associations with diabetes risk. Data were collected from employee health fairs in a Midwestern health system, 2009-2012. The data set contains 25 227 unique individuals across four years of data. From this group, using an individual's first entry into the database, 15 522 individuals had complete data for analysis. The prevalence of high diabetes risk in this population was 2·3 %. There was significant variability in individual- and zip-code-level variables across worksites. From the multivariable analysis, living in a zip code with higher percentage of poverty and higher walk score was positively associated with high diabetes risk, while living in a zip code with higher supermarket density was associated with a reduction in high diabetes risk. Our study underscores the important relationship between poverty, home neighbourhood environment and diabetes risk, even in a relatively healthy employed population, and suggests a role for the employer in promoting health.

Cardiovascular disease, diabetes and established risk factors among populations of sub-Saharan African descent in Europe: a literature review

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de Graft Aikins Ama

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Most European countries are ethnically and culturally diverse. Globally, cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of death. The major risk factors for CVD have been well established. This picture holds true for all regions of the world and in different ethnic groups. However, the prevalence of CVD and related risk factors vary among ethnic groups. Methods This article provides a review of current understanding of the epidemiology of vascular disease, principally coronary heart disease (CHD, stroke and related risk factors among populations of Sub-Sahara African descent (henceforth, African descent in comparison with the European populations in Europe. Results Compared with European populations, populations of African descent have an increased risk of stroke, whereas CHD is less common. They also have higher rates of hypertension and diabetes than European populations. Obesity is highly prevalent, but smoking rate is lower among African descent women. Older people of African descent have more favourable lipid profile and dietary habits than their European counterparts. Alcohol consumption is less common among populations of African descent. The rate of physical activity differs between European countries. Dutch African-Suriname men and women are less physically active than the White-Dutch whereas British African women are more physically active than women in the general population. Literature on psychosocial stress shows inconsistent results. Conclusion Hypertension and diabetes are highly prevalent among African populations, which may explain their high rate of stroke in Europe. The relatively low rate of CHD may be explained by the low rates of other risk factors including a more favourable lipid profile and the low prevalence of smoking. The risk factors are changing, and on the whole, getting worse especially among African women. Cohort studies and clinical trials are therefore needed among these groups to

[Differences in risk factors for disease and health problems between monks and the general population in The Netherlands].

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van Meel, D; de Vrij, J H; Kunst, A E; Mackenbach, J P

1992-08-08

The aim of this study was to determine whether the austerely living Trappist and Benedictine monks have a lower prevalence of a number of risk factors and health problems than the general Dutch population. A written questionnaire was submitted to monks of 7 monasteries. The response was 67 per cent (134 monks). The data were compared with data from the national Health Interview Survey of 1989, which used an almost identical questionnaire. Adjustment was made for differences in age and education. Monks consume less alcohol and tobacco and have a more austere diet. Their average Quetelet index is lower. The prevalence of cardiovascular disease is lower. On the other hand, monks more often report a number of other chronic diseases, physical complaints, and problems with activities of daily life. They more often have contact with general practitioners and with consultants. The lower prevalence of a number of risk factors among monks reflects their austere way of life. It is not certain whether the lower prevalence of cardiovascular diseases can be attributed to this way of life. The fact that, in general, health problems are more prevalent among monks suggests that changes in lifestyle do not necessarily lead to compression of morbidity.

Communicating Risks Associated with Onshore Oil and Gas Development: A Reflective Case Study from a Public Health Perspective

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Blake, U.

2017-12-01

The growth of onshore oil and natural gas development (OGD) over the past decade has led to an increase in environmental health concerns caused by potential risks associated with industry activities. While the industry has shown commitment to protecting the environment and the health and safety of all who share it (through the development of standards and best practices, and the support of relevant research projects), the negative rhetoric persists. The persistence can be related to differences in the perception of risks, complicated by the uncertainties associated with published and unpublished scientific findings, which are experienced and communicated differently by scientists, regulators, industry and the public. For example, to industry operators, hydraulic fracturing is a "well completion" operation, during which fracturing fluid is pumped down a well to the target formation, under high pressure (pressure high enough to exceed the formation fracture gradient). However, to the general public, the term hydraulic fracturing represents the entire onshore exploration and production operation (from pad development to the production of the resource). This difference in language is the tip of the iceberg that represents the challenges industry faces when communicating its operations to the public. By reflecting on industry experiences, this presentation offers a reflective case study that relates the challenges of navigating and communicating within a narrative of purported health effects, to risk perception and communication theories.

Perceptions regarding genetic testing in populations at risk for nephropathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Freedman, Barry I; Fletcher, Alison J; Sanghani, Vivek R; Spainhour, Mitzie; Graham, Angelina W; Russell, Gregory B; Cooke Bailey, Jessica N; Iltis, Ana S; King, Nancy M P

2013-01-01

Population ancestry-based differences exist in genetic risk for many kidney diseases. Substantial debate remains regarding returning genetic test results to participants. African-Americans (AAs) and European-Americans (EAs) at risk for end-stage kidney disease were queried for views on the value and use of genetic testing in research. A standardized survey regarding attitudes toward genetic testing was administered to 130 individuals (64 AA, 66 EA) with first-degree relatives on dialysis. Fisher's exact test was used to assess differences in participant attitudes between population groups. Mean (SD) age of surveyed AAs and EAs was 45.5 (12.8) and 50.5 (14.4) years, respectively (p = 0.04), with similar familial relationships (p = 0.22). AAs and EAs wished to know their test results if risk could be: (1) reduced by diet or exercise (100 and 98%, p = 0.99); (2) reduced by medical treatment (100 and 98%, p = 0.99), or (3) if no treatments were available (90 and 82%, p = 0.21). If informed they lacked a disease susceptibility variant, 87% of AAs and 88% of EAs would be extremely or pretty likely to inform family members (p = 0.84). If informed they had a disease susceptibility variant, 92% of AAs and 89% of EAs would be extremely or pretty likely to inform their family (p = 0.43). Attitudes toward obtaining and using genetic test results for disease in research contexts were similar in AAs and EAs at risk for end-stage kidney disease. A substantial majority would want information regardless of available treatments and would share the information with the family. These results have important implications for patient care, study design and the informed consent process. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Re-evaluating the Rose approach: comparative benefits of the population and high-risk preventive strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cooney, Marie-Therese; Dudina, Alexandra; Whincup, Peter

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: Options for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, the greatest global cause of death, include population preventive measures (the Rose approach), or specifically seeking out and managing high-risk cases. However, the likely benefit of a population approach has been recently...

Re-evaluating the Rose approach: comparative benefits of the population and high-risk preventive strategies.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie-Therese

2009-10-01

Options for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, the greatest global cause of death, include population preventive measures (the Rose approach), or specifically seeking out and managing high-risk cases. However, the likely benefit of a population approach has been recently questioned.

DEVELOPMENT OF AQUATIC MODELS FOR TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GENETIC DIVERSITY AND POPULATION EXTINCTION RISK

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The relationship between population adaptive potential and extinction risk in a changing environment is not well understood. Although the expectation is that genetic diversity is directly related to the capacity of populations to adapt, the statistical and predictive aspects of ...

Familial Risks of Tourette Syndrome and Chronic Tic Disorders. A Population-Based Cohort Study.

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Mataix-Cols, David; Isomura, Kayoko; Pérez-Vigil, Ana; Chang, Zheng; Rück, Christian; Larsson, K Johan; Leckman, James F; Serlachius, Eva; Larsson, Henrik; Lichtenstein, Paul

2015-08-01

Tic disorders, including Tourette syndrome (TS) and chronic tic disorders (CTDs), are assumed to be strongly familial and heritable. Although gene-searching efforts are well under way, precise estimates of familial risk and heritability are lacking. Previous controlled family studies were small and typically conducted within specialist clinics, resulting in potential ascertainment biases. They were also underpowered to disentangle genetic from environmental factors that contribute to the observed familiality. Twin studies have been either very small or based on parent-reported tics in population-based (nonclinical) twin samples. To provide unbiased estimates of familial risk and heritability of tic disorders at the population level. In this population cohort, multigenerational family study, we used a validated algorithm to identify 4826 individuals diagnosed as having TS or CTDs (76.2% male) in the Swedish National Patient Register from January 1, 1969, through December 31, 2009. We studied risks for TS or CTDs in all biological relatives of probands compared with relatives of unaffected individuals (matched on a 1:10 ratio) from the general population. Structural equation modeling was used to estimate the heritability of tic disorders. The risk for tic disorders among relatives of probands with tic disorders increased proportionally to the degree of genetic relatedness. The risks for first-degree relatives (odds ratio [OR], 18.69; 95% CI, 14.53-24.05) were significantly higher than for second-degree relatives (OR, 4.58; 95% CI, 3.22-6.52) and third-degree relatives (OR, 3.07; 95% CI, 2.08-4.51). First-degree relatives at similar genetic distances (eg, parents, siblings, and offspring) had similar risks for tic disorders despite different degrees of shared environment. The risks for full siblings (50% genetic similarity; OR, 17.68; 95% CI, 12.90-24.23) were significantly higher than those for maternal half siblings (25% genetic similarity; OR, 4.41; 95

Chronic disease and chronic disease risk factors among First Nations, Inuit and Métis populations of northern Canada.

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Bruce, S G; Riediger, N D; Lix, L M

2014-11-01

Aboriginal populations in northern Canada are experiencing rapid changes in their environments, which may negatively impact on health status. The purpose of our study was to compare chronic conditions and risk factors in northern Aboriginal populations, including First Nations (FN), Inuit and Métis populations, and northern non-Aboriginal populations. Data were from the Canadian Community Health Survey for the period from 2005 to 2008. Weighted multiple logistic regression models tested the association between ethnic groups and health outcomes. Model covariates were age, sex, territory of residence, education and income. Odds ratios (ORs) are reported and a bootstrap method calculated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and p values. Odds of having at least one chronic condition was significantly lower for the Inuit (OR = 0.59; 95% CI: 0.43-0.81) than for non-Aboriginal population, but similar among FN, Métis and non-Aboriginal populations. Prevalence of many risk factors was significantly different for Inuit, FN and Métis populations. Aboriginal populations in Canada's north have heterogeneous health status. Continued chronic disease and risk factor surveillance will be important to monitor changes over time and to evaluate the impact of public health interventions.

Identification of high risk patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in a northern Greek population

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Karvounis Charalambos

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The percentage of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM patients who are in high risk for Sudden Death (SD constitutes only a minority of all HCM population but the incidence of SD in this subset is high (at least 5% annually. The identification of this small but important proportion of high risk HCM patients has been the clue in the clinical evaluation of these patients. Methods Our study cohort consisted from 123 patients with HCM who are currently followed up in our Institution. Five clinical risk factors were assessed: a family history of premature SD, unexplained syncope, Non Sustained Ventricular Tachycardia (NSVT on 24-h ECG monitoring, Abnormal Blood Pressure Response (ABPR during upright exercise testing and Maximum left ventricular Wall Thickness (MWT ≥30 mm. The purpose of our study was the identification of high risk HCM patients coming from Northern Greece. Results Fifteen patients (12.2% of the whole cohort had MWT ≥ 30 mm, 30 patients (24.4% had an ABPR to exercise, 17 patients (13.8% had episodes of NSVT in 24-h Holter monitoring, 17 patients (13.8% suffered from syncope, and 8 patients (6.5% had a positive family history of premature SD. Data analysis revealed that 74 patients (60.1% had none risk factor. Twenty four patients (19.5% had 1 risk factor, 17 patients (13.8% had 2 risk factors, 4 patients (3.25% had 3 risk factors, and 4 patients (3.25% had 4 risk factors, while none patient had 5 risk factors. Twenty five patients (20.3% had 2 or more risk factors. Conclusion This study for the first time confirms that, although a 60% of patients with HCM coming from a regional Greek population are in low risk for SD, a substantial proportion (almost 20% carries a high risk for SD justifying prophylactic therapy with amiodaron or ICD implantation.

Individual and Population Level Impact of Key HIV Risk Factors on HIV Incidence Rates in Durban, South Africa.

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Gita Ramjee

Full Text Available We aimed to estimate the individual and joint impact of age, marital status and diagnosis with sexually transmitted infections (STIs on HIV acquisition among young women at a population level in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A total of 3,978 HIV seronegative women were recruited for four biomedical intervention trials from 2002-2009. Point and interval estimates of partial population attributable risk (PAR were used to quantify the proportion of HIV seroconversions which can be prevented if a combination of risk factors is eliminated from a target population. More than 70% of the observed HIV acquisitions were collectively attributed to the three risk factors: younger age (<25 years old, unmarried and not cohabiting with a stable/regular partner and diagnosis with STIs. Addressing these risks requires targeted structural, behavioural, biomedical and cultural interventions in order to impact on unacceptably high HIV incidence rates among young women and the population as a whole.

Examination of validity of fall risk assessment items for screening high fall risk elderly among the healthy community-dwelling Japanese population

OpenAIRE

DEMURA, Shinichi; SATO, Susumu; YAMAJI, Shunsuke; KASUGA, Kosho; NAGASAWA, Yoshinori

2010-01-01

We aimed to examine the validity of fall risk assessment items for the healthy community-dwelling elderly Japanese population. Participants were 1122 healthy elderly individuals aged 60 years and over (380 males and 742 females). The percentage who had experienced a fall was 15.8%. This study used fall experience and 50 fall risk assessment items representing the five risk factors (symptoms of falling, physical function, disease and physical symptom, environment, and behavior and character), ...

Does present use of cardiovascular medication reflect elevated cardiovascular risk scores estimated ten years ago? A population based longitudinal observational study

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Straand Jørund

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It is desirable that those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease should have priority for preventive measures, eg. treatment with prescription drugs to modify their risk. We wanted to investigate to what extent present use of cardiovascular medication (CVM correlates with cardiovascular risk estimated by three different risk scores (Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK ten years ago. Methods Prospective logitudinal observational study of 20 252 participants in The Hordaland Health Study born 1950-57, not using CVM in 1997-99. Prescription data obtained from The Norwegian Prescription Database in 2008. Results 26% of men and 22% of women aged 51-58 years had started to use some CVM during the previous decade. As a group, persons using CVM scored significantly higher on the risk algorithms Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK compared to those not treated. 16-20% of men and 20-22% of women with risk scores below the high-risk thresholds for the three risk scores were treated with CVM, while 60-65% of men and 25-45% of women with scores above the high-risk thresholds received no treatment. Among women using CVM, only 2.2% (NORRISK, 4.4% (SCORE and 14.5% (Framingham had risk scores above the high-risk values. Low education, poor self-reported general health, muscular pains, mental distress (in females only and a family history of premature cardiovascular disease correlated with use of CVM. Elevated blood pressure was the single factor most strongly predictive of CVM treatment. Conclusion Prescription of CVM to middle-aged individuals by large seems to occur independently of estimated total cardiovascular risk, and this applies especially to females.

Hygienic assessment of ambient air quality and health risks to population of Krasnoyarsk region

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D.V. Goryaev

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This study fulfills the hygienic assessment of ambient air quality in the populated areas of the Krasnoyarsk Region. It is shown that the total number of emission sources in the region is more than 23 600 units, what is higher than in previous years. Around 90.7 % out of them correspond to the set standards of permissible emissions. Air monitoring was carried by the establishments of Roshydromet, Rospotrebnadzor and by other organizations at 94 observation posts in eight urban districts and 2 municipal districts of the region. The status of the ambient air in a sequence of the populated areas of Krasnoyarsk region, namely in the cities Achinsk, Kansk, Krasnoyarsk, Lesosibirsk, Minusinsk, Norilsk, is characterized by the presence of certain pollutants, the level of which exceeds the hygienic standards. Prioritized pollutants are benzo(apyrene, suspended solids, nitrogen, and sulfur dioxide, formaldehyde and others. In the settlements the economic entities violate the legal requirements in the field of sanitary and epidemiological welfare of the population. The probability of the population’s health deterioration grows along with the growth of risk factors. The risks of respiratory diseases, immune system, blood and blood-forming organs and the additional mortality are assessed as unacceptable. Ensuring air quality of the urban residential areas and municipal districts of the Krasnoyarsk Territory requires the introducing the complex measures to improve it. The established levels of human health risk associated with exposure to polluted air are an additional criterion for selection of the priority objects when planning the implementation of risk-based model for supervisory activities in the field of sanitary and epidemiological welfare of the population.

Association between CFL1 gene polymorphisms and spina bifida risk in a California population

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Lammer Edward J

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background CFL1 encodes human non-muscle cofilin (n-cofilin, which is an actin-depolymerizing factor and is essential in cytokinesis, endocytosis, and in the development of all embryonic tissues. Cfl1 knockout mice exhibit failure of neural tube closure at E10.5 and die in utero. We hypothesized that genetic variation within the human CFL1 gene may alter the protein's function and result in defective actin depolymerizing and cellular activity during neural tube closure. Such alterations may be associated with an increased risk for neural tube defects (NTDs. Methods Having re-sequenced the human CFL1 gene and identified five common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in our target population, we investigated whether there existed a possible association between the genetic variations of the CFL1 gene and risk of spina bifida. Samples were obtained from a large population-based case-control study in California. Allele association, genotype association and haplotype association were evaluated in two different ethnicity groups, non-Hispanic white and Hispanic white. Results Homozygosity for the minor alleles of the SNPs studied (rs652021, rs665306, rs667555, rs4621 and rs11227332 appeared to produce an increased risk for spina bifida. Subjects with the haplotype composed of all minor alleles (CCGGT appeared to have increased spina bifida risk (OR = 1.6, 95% CI: 0.9~2.9, however, this finding is not statistically significant likely due to limited sample size. Conclusion The sequence variation of human CFL1 gene is a genetic modifier for spina bifida risk in this California population.

The associations of diastolic blood pressure with the risk of stroke in Western and Eastern populations.

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Ni Mhurchu, C; Rodgers, A; MacMahon, S

1999-01-01

This paper reviews evidence from two overviews of prospective, observational studies of the association of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) with the risk of stroke in populations from the US and Europe and populations from China and Japan. The Western overview included seven studies involving a total of 405,511 individuals. During a mean follow-up period of 11 years, 843 strokes were observed. The Eastern overview included 18 cohorts involving a total of 124,774 participants. During a mean follow-up duration of 9 years, 1,798 strokes were observed. The shape of the association between usual DBP and the risk of stroke was similar in Western and Eastern populations, but in Eastern populations the size of the association was about 50% steeper than that in Western populations. This may be due, at least in part, to cerebral haemorrhage comprising a greater proportion of total stroke in Eastern populations. This finding, together with the high stroke rates in many Eastern Asian populations, suggests that the potential benefits of blood pressure lowering may be greater in Eastern Asia.

Relations between urban risk managers and local populations. A critical approach to a certain idea of ''communication''

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coanus, Th.; Duchene, F.; Martinais, E.

1998-01-01

Relationships between risk managers (private or public industrialists, state employees, various experts, even certain elected representatives) and the population concerned by possible risks have often been marked by considerable mutual distrust. Moreover, with no 'relays' or spokesmen on the scale of the territories involved, risk managers generally resort to 'communication' policies inspired by marketing, whose effectiveness is far from certain. We aim here to develop the hypothesis that these ways of proceeding are based on the idea of a 'Great Divide' between risk managers on the one hand, and the population on the other. As a result of this divide, supposedly 'objective' knowledge becomes a discriminating factor, the prerogative of managers, without which the population is perceived as being of almost 'minor' importance. Our work in Lyons (France) on natural and industrial hazards shows the importance of risk-building work by those who, albeit non-specialists, are potentially subjected to them. Although these 'ordinary' representations of danger may sometimes differ considerably from 'accepted' forms, they are nevertheless logically and symbolically structured, by means of perceivable main themes, in a socio-anthropological perspective. What is more, the reputedly more 'rational' discourse of risk managers occasionally lets slip elements which could (scientifically speaking) be considered non-rational, but which can be given fresh meaning thanks, once again, to a socio-anthropological outlook. Both risk managers and the population can therefore be said to belong to the same human species: both react in their own specific - yet comparable - way, when confronted with danger, disease (in the case of chemical risks, for example) and in any case wit (potential) death. Here, then, is material for a different approach to communication policies in the field of urban risk. (authors)

Occupational risk factors for brain cancer: a population-based case-control study in Iowa.

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Zheng, T; Cantor, K P; Zhang, Y; Keim, S; Lynch, C F

2001-04-01

A number of occupations and industries have been inconsistently associated with the risk of brain cancer. To further explore possible relationships, we conducted a population-based case-control study of brain glioma in the state of Iowa, involving 375 histologically confirmed incident cases and 2434 population-based controls. Among men, the industries and/or occupations that had a significantly increased risk for employment of more than 10 years included roofing, siding, and sheet metalworking; newspaper work; rubber and plastics products, particularly tires and inner tubes; miscellaneous manufacturing industries; wholesale trade of durable goods, grain, and field beans; cleaning and building service occupations; miscellaneous mechanics and repairers; and janitors and cleaners. Subjects who worked in plumbing, heating, and air conditioning; electrical services; gasoline service stations; and military occupations also experienced a significantly increased risk. Among women, significant excess risk was observed for occupations in agricultural services and farming, apparel and textile products, electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing, various retail sales, record-keeping, and restaurant service. Workers in industries with a potential for gasoline or motor exhaust exposures experienced a non-significant excess risk of brain glioma.

Quantifying population-level risks using an individual-based model: sea otters, Harlequin Ducks, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill.

Science.gov (United States)

Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Parker, Keith R

2012-07-01

Ecological risk assessments need to advance beyond evaluating risks to individuals that are largely based on toxicity studies conducted on a few species under laboratory conditions, to assessing population-level risks to the environment, including considerations of variability and uncertainty. Two individual-based models (IBMs), recently developed to assess current risks to sea otters and seaducks in Prince William Sound more than 2 decades after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), are used to explore population-level risks. In each case, the models had previously shown that there were essentially no remaining risks to individuals from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) derived from the EVOS. New sensitivity analyses are reported here in which hypothetical environmental exposures to PAHs were heuristically increased until assimilated doses reached toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived at the no-observed-adverse-effects and lowest-observed-adverse-effects levels (NOAEL and LOAEL, respectively). For the sea otters, this was accomplished by artificially increasing the number of sea otter pits that would intersect remaining patches of subsurface oil residues by orders of magnitude over actual estimated rates. Similarly, in the seaduck assessment, the PAH concentrations in the constituents of diet, sediments, and seawater were increased in proportion to their relative contributions to the assimilated doses by orders of magnitude over measured environmental concentrations, to reach the NOAEL and LOAEL thresholds. The stochastic IBMs simulated millions of individuals. From these outputs, frequency distributions were derived of assimilated doses for populations of 500,000 sea otters or seaducks in each of 7 or 8 classes, respectively. Doses to several selected quantiles were analyzed, ranging from the 1-in-1000th most-exposed individuals (99.9% quantile) to the median-exposed individuals (50% quantile). The resulting families of quantile curves provide the basis for

Risk of leukemia among survivors of testicular cancer: a population-based study of 42,722 patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Howard, R.; Gilbert, E.; Lynch, C.F.

2008-01-01

PURPOSE: The aim of this study is to quantify excess absolute risk (EAR) and excess relative risk (ERR) of secondary leukemia among a large population-based group of testicular cancer survivors. METHODS: We identified 42,722 1-year survivors of testicular cancer within 14 population-based cancer...... registries in Europe and North America (1943-2002). Poisson regression analysis was used to model EAR (per 100,000 person-years [PY]) and ERR of secondary leukemia. Cumulative risks were calculated using a competing risk model. RESULTS: Secondary leukemia developed in 89 patients (EAR = 10.8 per 100,000 PY......, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.6-14.6; ERR = 1.6, 95%CI = 1.0-2.2). Statistically significantly elevated risks were observed for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) (EAR = 7.2, 95%CI = 4.7-10.2) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (EAR = 1.3, 95%CI = 0.4-2.8). In multivariate analyses, AML risk was higher...

[Specific features of nesting bird populations in forest-meadow-field landscapes of Meshchovsk Opolye reflect the diversity of their biotope connections].

Science.gov (United States)

Kut'in, S D; Konstantinov, V M

2008-01-01

Studies on specific features of nesting bird populations in patchy landscapes were performed in Meshchovsk Opolye, Kaluga Region, from 1981 to 1990. Indices of similarity between the avifaunas of agricultural fields, lowland bogs, and small-leaved forests markedly differed from parameters of their population density in rank and value. In the series of biotopes differing in the relative amount of woodland, from central areas of small-leaved forests to forest margins and then to forest islands gradually decreasing in size, the birds segregated into two distinct groups, one characteristic of forest margins and large forest islands and the other characteristic of small and very small forest islands. Specific features of bird density distribution in forest-meadow-field landscapes of Meshchovsk Opolye reflected heterogeneity of their populations manifested in diverse connections with nesting biotopes.

A Framework for Linking Population Model Development with Ecological Risk Assessment Objectives.

Science.gov (United States)

The value of models that link organism‐level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERAs) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism&#...

Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Ping

2005-01-01

from various Danish longitudinal registers. Data were analysed with conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: This study confirms that people living in more urbanized areas are at a higher risk of suicide than their counterparts in less urbanized areas. However, this excess risk is largely eliminated...... when adjusted for personal marital, income, and ethnic differences; it is even reversed when further adjusted for psychiatric status. Moreover, the impact of urbanicity on suicide risk differs significantly by sex and across age. Urban living reduces suicide risk significantly among men, especially......BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Testicular cancer risk and maternal parity: a population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Westergaard, T; Andersen, P K; Pedersen, J B; Frisch, M; Olsen, J H; Melbye, M

1998-04-01

The aim was to study, in a population-based cohort design, whether first-born sons run a higher risk of testicular cancer than later born sons; to investigate whether this difference in risk was affected by birth cohort, age of the son, maternal age, interval to previous delivery and other reproductive factors; and, finally, to evaluate to what extent changes in women's parity over time might explain the increasing incidence of testicular cancer. By using data from the Civil Registration System, a database was established of all women born in Denmark since 1935 and all their children alive in 1968 or born later. Sons with testicular cancer were identified in the Danish Cancer Registry. Among 1015994 sons followed for 15981 967 person-years, 626 developed testicular cancer (443 non-seminomas, 183 seminomas). Later born sons had a decreased risk of testicular cancer (RR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.67-0.95) compared with first-born sons. The RR was 0.79 (95% CI = 0.64-0.98) for non-seminomas and 0.81 (95% CI = 0.58-1.13) for seminomas. There was no association between testicular cancer risk and overall parity of the mother, maternal or paternal age at the birth of the son, or maternal age at first birth. The decreased risk of testicular cancer among later born sons was not modified by age, birth cohort, interval to the previous birth, sex of the first-born child, or maternal age at birth of the son or at first birth. The increased proportion of first-borns from birth cohort 1946 to birth cohort 1969 only explained around 3% of an approximated two-fold increase in incidence between the cohorts. Our data document a distinctly higher risk of testicular cancer in first-born compared with later born sons and suggest that the most likely explanation should be sought among exposures in utero. The increase in the proportion of first-borns in the population has only contributed marginally to the increase in testicular cancer incidence.

Risk factors associated with a breast cancer in a population of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Introduction: Breast cancer is the most common cancer in morocco women were it occupies the first place in term of incidence and mortality. The aim of the present paper is to evaluate the risk factors associated with a breast cancer in a population of Moroccan women. Methods: A casecontrol study was conducted with ...

Dopamine reward prediction error responses reflect marginal utility.

Science.gov (United States)

Stauffer, William R; Lak, Armin; Schultz, Wolfram

2014-11-03

Optimal choices require an accurate neuronal representation of economic value. In economics, utility functions are mathematical representations of subjective value that can be constructed from choices under risk. Utility usually exhibits a nonlinear relationship to physical reward value that corresponds to risk attitudes and reflects the increasing or decreasing marginal utility obtained with each additional unit of reward. Accordingly, neuronal reward responses coding utility should robustly reflect this nonlinearity. In two monkeys, we measured utility as a function of physical reward value from meaningful choices under risk (that adhered to first- and second-order stochastic dominance). The resulting nonlinear utility functions predicted the certainty equivalents for new gambles, indicating that the functions' shapes were meaningful. The monkeys were risk seeking (convex utility function) for low reward and risk avoiding (concave utility function) with higher amounts. Critically, the dopamine prediction error responses at the time of reward itself reflected the nonlinear utility functions measured at the time of choices. In particular, the reward response magnitude depended on the first derivative of the utility function and thus reflected the marginal utility. Furthermore, dopamine responses recorded outside of the task reflected the marginal utility of unpredicted reward. Accordingly, these responses were sufficient to train reinforcement learning models to predict the behaviorally defined expected utility of gambles. These data suggest a neuronal manifestation of marginal utility in dopamine neurons and indicate a common neuronal basis for fundamental explanatory constructs in animal learning theory (prediction error) and economic decision theory (marginal utility). Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Synchrotron radiation total reflection X-ray fluorescence (SR-TXRF) for evaluation of food contamination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vives, A.E.S.; Brienza, S.M.B.; Moreira, S.; Zucchi, O.L.A.; Nascimento Filho, V.F.

2006-01-01

The objective of this study was to use synchrotron radiation total reflection X-ray fluorescence analysis (SR-TXRF) for the determination of metals and other elements in food available to the population in commercial establishments, in order to evaluate the risks of contamination by these products. The analyzed species were vegetables, leafy vegetables, fruits, cereal and grain. The results indicated that some species were contaminated by Cr, Cu, Zn and Pb with concentrations much higher than the reference values. (author)

Holocaust exposure and subsequent suicide risk: a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bursztein Lipsicas, Cendrine; Levav, Itzhak; Levine, Stephen Z

2017-03-01

To examine the association between the extent of genocide exposure and subsequent suicide risk among Holocaust survivors. Persons born in Holocaust-exposed European countries during the years 1922-1945 that immigrated to Israel by 1965 were identified in the Population Registry (N = 209,429), and followed up for suicide (1950-2014). They were divided into three groups based on likely exposure to Nazi persecution: those who immigrated before (indirect; n = 20,229; 10%), during (partial direct; n = 17,189; 8%), and after (full direct; n = 172,061; 82%) World War II. Groups were contrasted for suicide risk, accounting for the extent of genocide in their respective countries of origin, high (>70%) or lower levels (Holocaust survivors (full direct exposure) as a resilient group. A tentative mechanism for higher vulnerability to suicide risk of the partial direct exposure group from countries with higher genocide exposure includes protracted guilt feelings, having directly witnessed atrocities and escaped death.

Texting for Health: An Evaluation of a Population Approach to Type 2 Diabetes Risk Reduction With a Personalized Message.

Science.gov (United States)

Khurshid, Anjum; Brown, Lisanne; Mukherjee, Snigdha; Abebe, Nebeyou; Kulick, David

2015-11-01

txt4health is an innovative, 14-week, interactive, population-based mobile health program for individuals at risk of type 2 diabetes, developed under the Beacon Community Program in the Greater New Orleans, La., area. A comprehensive social marketing campaign sought to enroll hard-to-reach, at-risk populations using a combination of mass media and face-to-face engagement in faith-based and retail environments. Little is known about the effectiveness of social marketing for mobile technology application in the general population. A systematic evaluation of the campaign identified successes and barriers to implementing a population-based mobile health program. Face-to-face engagement helped increase program enrollment after the initial launch; otherwise, enrollment leveled off over time. Results show positive trends in reaching target populations and in the use of mobile phones to record personal health information and set goals for reducing the risk of type 2 diabetes. The lessons from the txt4health campaign can help inform the development and programmatic strategies to provide a person-level intervention using a population-level approach for individuals at risk for diabetes as well as aid in chronic disease management.

Association of Htra1 Gene Polymorphisms with the Risk of Developing AMD in Iranian Population

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Mohammad Askari

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Background: Half of the cases of vision loss in people under 60 years of age have been attributed to age-related macular degeneration (AMD. This is a multifactorial disease with late onset. It has been demonstrated that many different genetic loci are implicated in the risk of developing AMD in different populations. In the current study, we investigated the association of high-temperature requirement A-1 (HTRA1 gene polymorphisms with the risk of developing AMD in the Iranian population. Methods: Genomic DNA samples were extracted from 120 patients with AMD and 120 healthy age- and sex-matched controls. A 385 base-pair fragment of the HTRA1 gene promoter region was amplified using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR technique and sequenced. The frequencies of the alleles were calculated and statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software. Results: Our study demonstrated that the rate of polymorphisms rs11200638 -625 G>A and rs2672598 -487T>C were significantly greater in AMD patients than in healthy controls from the Iranian population. Conclusions: The results of our study indicate that HTRA1 gene promoter region polymorphisms are associated with the risk of developing AMD in the Iranian population

Comparison of various risk indicators among patients with chronic and aggressive periodontitis in davangere population

Science.gov (United States)

Vandana, Kharidhi Laxman; Nadkarni, Rahul Dilip; Guddada, Kaveri

2015-01-01

Background: The aim of the present study was to compare various risk indicators of chronic periodontitis (CP) and aggressive periodontitis (AP) among patients of Davangere population. Materials and Methods: Totally, 89 CP and 90 AP patients were selected from outpatient Department of Periodontics, College of Dental Sciences, Davangere. Various clinical parameters proven to be risk indicators were determined for each patient such as age, gender, occupation, oral hygiene habits, personal habits, income, level of education, place of residence, frequency of dental visits, various oral hygiene indices, gingival status, wasting diseases, malocclusion, laboratory investigations, and the results were subjected to statistical analysis. Results: This study demonstrated that AP is manifested early in life in susceptible individuals. Proven risk indicators for AP and CP in the present study population included young age, place of residence, income and education levels, frequency of dental visits. Patients with AP had better oral hygiene habits and oral hygiene index results than patients with CP. Paan chewing and smoking could be considered as risk factors, both in CP and AP cases. The similar association of plaque scores but higher bleeding tendency in AP patients supported the fact of higher susceptibility of AP patients to periodontal breakdown. Malocclusion being present in the majority of cases could also be put forth as a risk factor for AP and CP. Conclusion: This study identifies the different risk indicators for CP and AP and demonstrates the need for constructing nationwide oral health promotion programs to improve the level of oral health awareness and standards in Indian population. PMID:26392693

Sex differences in risk factors for coronary heart disease: a study in a Brazilian population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oliveira Helena CF

2001-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In Brazil coronary heart disease (CHD constitutes the most important cause of death in both sexes in all the regions of the country and interestingly, the difference between the sexes in the CHD mortality rates is one of the smallest in the world because of high rates among women. Since a question has been raised about whether or how the incidence of several CHD risk factors differs between the sexes in Brazil the prevalence of various risk factors for CHD such as high blood cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, obesity, sedentary lifestyle and cigarette smoking was compared between the sexes in a Brazilian population; also the relationships between blood cholesterol and the other risk factors were evaluated. Results The population presented high frequencies of all the risk factors evaluated. High blood cholesterol (CHOL and hypertension were more prevalent among women as compared to men. Hypertension, diabetes and smoking showed equal or higher prevalence in women in pre-menopausal ages as compared to men. Obesity and physical inactivity were equally prevalent in both sexes respectively in the postmenopausal age group and at all ages. CHOL was associated with BMI, sex, age, hypertension and physical inactivity. Conclusions In this population the high prevalence of the CHD risk factors indicated that there is an urgent need for its control; the higher or equal prevalences of several risk factors in women could in part explain the high rates of mortality from CHD in females as compared to males.

Solving the collective-risk social dilemma with risky assets in well-mixed and structured populations

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xiaojie; Zhang, Yanling; Huang, Ting-Zhu; Perc, Matjaž

2014-11-01

In the collective-risk social dilemma, players lose their personal endowments if contributions to the common pool are too small. This fact alone, however, does not always deter selfish individuals from defecting. The temptations to free ride on the prosocial efforts of others are strong because we are hardwired to maximize our own fitness regardless of the consequences which might have for the public good. Here we show that the addition of risky assets to the personal endowments, both of which are lost if the collective target is not reached, can contribute to solving the collective-risk social dilemma. In infinite well-mixed populations, risky assets introduce new stable and unstable mixed steady states, whereby the stable mixed steady state converges to full cooperation as either the risk of collective failure or the amount of risky assets increases. Similarly, in finite well-mixed populations, the introduction of risky assets enforces configurations where cooperative behavior thrives. In structured populations cooperation is promoted as well, but the distribution of assets among the groups is crucial. Surprisingly, we find that the completely rational allocation of assets only to the most successful groups is not optimal, and this regardless of whether the risk of collective failure is high or low. Instead, in low-risk situations bounded rational allocation of assets works best, while in high-risk situations the simplest uniform distribution of assets among all the groups is optimal. These results indicate that prosocial behavior depends sensitively on the potential losses individuals are likely to endure if they fail to cooperate.

Cardiovascular Risk and Serum Hyaluronic Acid: A Preliminary Study in a Healthy Population of Low/Intermediate Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Papanastasopoulou, Chrysanthi; Papastamataki, Maria; Karampatsis, Petros; Anagnostopoulou, Eleni; Papassotiriou, Ioannis; Sitaras, Nikolaos

2017-01-01

Hyaluronic acid (HA) has been found to be an important trigger of atherosclerosis. In this study, we investigate the possible association of serum HA with cardiovascular disease risk in a population of low/intermediate risk for cardiovascular events. We enrolled 200 subjects with low/intermediate risk for developing cardiovascular disease. High specific C-reactive protein (hsCRP) was used as an indicator of preclinical atherosclerosis. The Framingham score was used to calculate the cardiovascular risk. Participants with dyslipidemia had significantly higher levels of serum HA than those without dyslipidemia (t-test, P = 0.05), higher levels of hsCRP (Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.04), and higher cardiovascular risk according to the Framingham score (Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.05). Serum HA concentration correlated significantly with the Framingham score for risk for coronary heart disease over the next 10 years (Spearman r = 0.152, P = 0.02). Diabetic volunteers had significantly higher HA than those without diabetes (t-test, P = 0.02). Participants with metabolic syndrome had higher serum HA levels and higher hsCRP (Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.01) compared to volunteers without metabolic syndrome (t-test, P = 0.03). Serum HA should be explored as an early marker of atheromatosis and cardiovascular risk. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Skin Cancer Risk in Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplant Recipients Compared With Background Population and Renal Transplant Recipients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Omland, Silje Haukali; Gniadecki, Robert; Hædersdal, Merete

2016-01-01

IMPORTANCE: While a high risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer is well recognized in solid-organ transplant recipients, the risk of skin cancer in hematopoietic stem-cell transplant (HSCT) recipients has not been extensively studied. OBJECTIVE: To determine the risk of cutaneous cancer in HSCT recipients...... autologous) from 1999 through 2014, 4789 RTRs from 1976 through 2014, and 10 age- and sex-matched nontransplanted individuals for each of the groups from the background population. Person-years at risk were calculated from the time of study inclusion until first cutaneous cancer. To compare the risk of skin...... cancer between transplant recipients and background population, we used a stratified proportional hazard regression model for hazard ratio (HR) estimations. By use of the cumulative incidence, we estimated 5- and 10-year risks of skin cancers. All RTR and HSCT recipients were treated and followed up...

Alcohol consumption and risk of aging macula disorder in a general population: the Rotterdam Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boekhoorn, Sharmila S.; Vingerling, Johannes R.; Hofman, Albert; de Jong, Paulus T. V. M.

2008-01-01

To investigate the possible relationship between overall or specific alcohol consumption and risk of aging macula disorder (AMD), a synonym for age-related macular degeneration, in a general population. Alcohol consumption and risk of early or late incident AMD (iAMD) were examined among all

Assessment of possible association between rs378854 and prostate cancer risk in the Serbian population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brajušković G.

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Prostate cancer (PCa is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer among men worldwide. Despite its high incidence rate, the molecular basis of PCa onset and its progression remains little understood. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS have greatly contributed to the identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP associated with PCa risk. Several GWAS identified 8q24 as one of the most significant PCa-associated regions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of SNP rs378854 at 8q24 with PCa risk in the Serbian population. The study population included 261 individuals diagnosed with PCa, 257 individuals diagnosed with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH and 106 healthy controls. Data quality analysis yielded results showing deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in groups of PCa patients and BPH patients as well as in the control group. There was no significant association between alleles and genotypes of the genetic variant rs378854 and PCa risk in the Serbian population. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 173016

‘It’s quite weird to write … you feel like a nut job’: the practical and emotional consequences of writing personal reflections for assessment in psychology

OpenAIRE

Marsh, Claire

2014-01-01

Setting the tone for reflective writing – should the first person, populated approach that currently dominates be ethically questioned? An active voice is recommended to enhance ‘power’ and emotional investment in reflection, but often presents practical difficulties for students conditioned in ‘scientific’ depopulated ways. Beyond the practical, being instructed to employ a personal tone could exacerbate the emotional risks involved for vulnerable students. Ethical questioning is an area of ...

Risk of cerebrovascular events in persons with and without HIV: A Danish nationwide population-based cohort study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Line D; Engsig, Frederik Neess; Christensen, Hanne

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE:: To assess the risk of cerebrovascular events (CVE) in HIV-infected individuals and evaluate the impact of proven risk factors, injection drug abuse (IDU), immunodeficiency, highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and family-related risk factors. DESIGN:: Nationwide, population...

Asthma, other atopic conditions and risk of infections in 105 519 general population never and ever smokers.

Science.gov (United States)

Helby, J; Nordestgaard, B G; Benfield, T; Bojesen, S E

2017-09-01

Individuals with atopic conditions may have increased susceptibility to infections outside the organs directly affected by their atopic condition. We tested the hypothesis that atopic conditions overall, and stratified by smoking history, are associated with increased risk of hospitalization for infections. We collected information on smoking history and self-reported atopic conditions from 105 519 individuals from the general population and followed them for up to 23 years for infectious disease hospitalizations and deaths. For asthma, we focused on never smokers with asthma diagnosed before age 50 (early asthma) to minimize confounding by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. During follow-up, 11 160 individuals had infections. Never smokers with early asthma versus no atopic conditions had significantly increased risks of any infection (hazard ratio 1.65; 95% confidence interval 1.40-1.94), pneumonia (2.44; 1.92-3.11) and any non-respiratory tract infection (1.36; 1.11-1.67); results were similar in ever smokers. Never smokers with any asthma had significantly increased risks of any infection (1.44; 1.24-1.66) and pneumonia (1.99; 1.62-2.44). Neither atopic dermatitis (1.00; 0.91-1.10) nor hay fever (1.00; 0.93-1.07) was associated with risk of any infection. In never smokers, risk estimates for any infection were comparable between asthma and diabetes, as were the population attributable fractions of 2.2% for any asthma and 2.9% for diabetes. Early asthma was associated with significantly increased risks of any infection, pneumonia and any non-respiratory tract infection in never and ever smokers. In never smokers, risk estimates as well as population attributable fractions for any infection were comparable between asthma and diabetes, suggesting that asthma may be a substantial risk factor for infections in the general population. © 2017 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

Development of a risk prediction model for Barrett's esophagus in an Australian population.

Science.gov (United States)

Ireland, C J; Fielder, A L; Thompson, S K; Laws, T A; Watson, D I; Esterman, A

2017-11-01

Esophageal adenocarcinoma has poor 5-year survival rates. Increased survival might be achieved with earlier treatment, but requires earlier identification of the precursor, Barrett's esophagus. Population screening is not cost effective, this may be improved by targeted screening directed at individuals more likely to have Barrett's esophagus. To develop a risk prediction tool for Barrett's esophagus, this study compared individuals with Barrett's esophagus against population controls. Participants completed a questionnaire comprising 35 questions addressing medical history, symptom history, lifestyle factors, anthropomorphic measures, and demographic details. Statistical analysis addressed differences between cases and controls, and entailed initial variable selection, checking of model assumptions, and establishing calibration and discrimination. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to assess overall accuracy. One hundred and twenty individuals with Barrett's esophagus and 235 population controls completed the questionnaire. Significant differences were identified for age, gender, reflux history, family reflux history, history of hypertension, alcoholic drinks per week, and body mass index. These were used to develop a risk prediction model. The AUC was 0.82 (95% CI 0.78-0.87). Good calibration between predicted and observed risk was noted (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P = 0.67). At the point minimizing false positives and false negatives, the model achieved a sensitivity of 84.96% and a specificity of 66%. A well-calibrated risk prediction model with good discrimination has been developed to identify patients with Barrett's esophagus. The model needs to be externally validated before consideration for clinical practice. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Youth suicide attempts and the dose-response relationship to parental risk factors: a population-based study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, E; Goldney, R D; Beautrai, A L

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of specific knowledge about the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors for suicide attempts among children and adolescents. The aim of this study was to determine the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors on an offspring's risk for suic......BACKGROUND: There is a lack of specific knowledge about the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors for suicide attempts among children and adolescents. The aim of this study was to determine the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors on an offspring's risk...... for suicide attempt.MethodWe designed a population-based two-generation nested case-control study and used Danish register data. A population of 403 431 individuals born between 1983 and 1989 was sampled. Among these, 3465 (0.8%) were registered as having had a suicide attempt. Twenty controls were matched...... to each case and a link to the offspring's biological parents was established. RESULTS: There was a dose-response relationship between the number of exposures and the risk of suicide attempts, with the increased risk seeming to be a multiplicative effect. Parental suicide, suicide attempt, psychiatric...

Dyslipidemia and its risk factors among urban middle-aged Iranians: A population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebrahimi, Hossein; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Hashemi, Hassan; Fotouhi, Akbar

2016-01-01

Dyslipidemia is a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease and is a leading cause of mortality in developed and developing countries. This study was aimed to determine the prevalence of dyslipidemia and its risk factors in an urban group of Iranian adult population. In this study, based on the criteria set by the National Cholesterol Education Program, the prevalence of dyslipidemia was evaluated in a population of 4737 people aged 45-69 years who participated in the second phase of an ophthalmology cohort study in Shahroud. Dyslipidemia prevalence was determined by age, sex, and risk factors of the disease; the findings were tested by using simple and multiple logistic regression. The prevalence of dyslipidemia was 66.5% (CI 95%: 64.4-68.6) in males, 61.3% (CI 95%: 59.5-63.2) in females, and 63.4% (CI 95%: 62.0-64.9%) in both sexes. The prevalence of hypertriglyceridemia, hypercholesterolemia, low HDL-C, and high LDL-C, respectively, was 28.8%, 13.4%, 42.3%, and 13.4%, respectively. In multivariate logistic regression model, increase of age (for females), abdominal obesity, overweight and obesity, hypertension, and diabetes were associated with an increased odd of dyslipidemia. The prevalence of dyslipidemia in middle-aged urban population in Iran is high, and with increasing age there is an increased risk of dyslipidemia. Hence, considering the growing trend of aging in Iran, there is need for taking special measures to deal with dyslipidemia as a health priority. Furthermore, the need for planning in order to reduce the risk of dyslipidemia and prevent its complications is greater than ever. Copyright © 2016 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards a European Framework to Monitor Infectious Diseases among Migrant Populations: Design and Applicability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flavia Riccardo

2015-09-01

Full Text Available There are limitations in our capacity to interpret point estimates and trends of infectious diseases occurring among diverse migrant populations living in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA. The aim of this study was to design a data collection framework that could capture information on factors associated with increased risk to infectious diseases in migrant populations in the EU/EEA. The authors defined factors associated with increased risk according to a multi-dimensional framework and performed a systematic literature review in order to identify whether those factors well reflected the reported risk factors for infectious disease in these populations. Following this, the feasibility of applying this framework to relevant available EU/EEA data sources was assessed. The proposed multidimensional framework is well suited to capture the complexity and concurrence of these risk factors and in principle applicable in the EU/EEA. The authors conclude that adopting a multi-dimensional framework to monitor infectious diseases could favor the disaggregated collection and analysis of migrant health data.

[Prevalence survey of cardiovascular risk factors in the general population in St. Louis (Senegal)].

Science.gov (United States)

Pessinaba, S; Mbaye, A; Yabéta, G A D; Harouna, H; Sib, A E; Kane, A D; Bodian, M; Ndiaye, M B; Mbaye-Ndour, M; Niang, K; Diagne-Sow, D; Diack, B; Kane, M; Diao, M; Mathieu, J-B S; Kane, A

2013-08-01

Cardiovascular diseases are becoming with their risk factors a real health problem in Africa. The objectives of this study were to assess the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in the general population in Saint-Louis, Senegal. This is a cross-sectional, descriptive and analytical made in May 2010, in the Senegalese aged 15, residing in the city of Saint-Louis, Senegal. A systematic random sampling and stratified cluster has been achieved. Cardiovascular risk factors for research were: hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking, obesity, physical inactivity and metabolic syndrome. The survey involved 1424 individuals with 983 women (69%). The average age was 43.4±17.8years. The prevalence of risk factors was: hypertension (46%), diabetes (10.4%), total cholesterol (36.3%), hyperLDLcholesterol (20.6%), obesity (body mass index≥30kg/m(2)) (23%), abdominal obesity (48.7% according to International Diabetes Federation and 33.2% according to National Cholesterol Education Program) physical inactivity (64.7%), smoking (5.8%) and metabolic syndrome (15.7%). There was predominance in women of risk factors except for smoking and diabetes. The overall cardiovascular risk was high in 24.9% according to the Framingham model, 28.8% (European Society of Hypertension) and 6.1% (SCORE). This survey found a high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a general population in Senegal, predominant in women. This should lead to better develop a strategy to prevent cardiovascular diseases. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and screening for risk factors of type 2 diabetes in Rize, Nourtheast Turkey: findings from a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayındır Çevik, A; Metin Karaaslan, M; Koçan, S; Pekmezci, H; Baydur Şahin, S; Kırbaş, A; Ayaz, T

2016-02-01

We aimed to determine the prevalence of diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes, risk factors affecting the healthy population, and factors that increase diabetes risk in the adult northeast Turkish population. Using population proportional cluster sampling, 930 adults were selected. After excluding people with diabetes, risk screening was conducted in the healthy population (n: 825) using the Information Form and FINDRISK questionnaire. Fasting venous blood and biochemical parameters were measured. Prevalence of diabetes was 13.6% (new % 2.3), translating to approximately 44 thousand adults. Among the healthy population, 37.5% had high risk. Prevalence of not exercising (78.2%), obesity (36.1%), and hypertension (24.5%) were high. Predictors of risk of diabetes were aging (OR 1.09), low education (OR 0.51), familial diabetes history (OR 15.27), not exercising (OR 0.41), obesity (OR 5.17), high waist circumference (OR 1.05), heart disease (OR 4.81), and hypertension (OR 2.60). This study can stimulate early screening for cardiovascular diseases and hypertension and initiating aggressive treatments in people with high diabetes risk. In primary health services, number of doctors and nurses trained in diabetes should be increased and dieticians should be involved. People with high risk should receive lifestyle regulations training. Copyright © 2015 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gender moderates the relationship between impulsivity and sexual risk-taking in a cocaine-using psychiatric outpatient population

OpenAIRE

Black, Anne C.; McMahon, Thomas J.; Potenza, Marc N.; Fiellin, Lynn E.; Rosen, Marc I.

2014-01-01

Adults who abuse substances are at increased risk for contracting sexually transmitted infections, including HIV. Within this population, sexual risk behaviors have been associated with increased impulsivity. Studies in non-clinical populations showing gender-related differences in sexual decision-making and casual sexual partnering suggest impulsivity has a greater influence on men than women, but these differences have not been documented in substance-using patients. In a sample of 89 adult...

Estimation of population dose and risk to holding assistants from veterinary X-ray examination in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hashizume, Tadashi; Suganuma, Tunenori; Shida, Takuo

1989-01-01

For the estimation of the population doses and risks of stochastic effects to assistants who hold animals during veterinary X-ray examination, a random survey of hospitals and clinics was carried out concerning age distribution of such assistants by groups of facilities. The average organ and tissue dose per examination was evaluated from the experimental data using mean technical factors such as X-ray tube voltage, tube current and field size based on the results of a nationwide survey. The population doses to the assistants were calculated to be about 14 nSv per person per year for the genetically significant dose, 3.5 nSv per person per year for per caput mean marrow dose, 3.3 nSv for the leukemia significant dose and 4.5 nSv for the malignant significant dose, respectively. The total risk of stochastic effects to the Japanese population from holding assistants was estimated using population data and it was estimated to be less than one person per year, but the cancer risks to a number of the assistants were estimated to be more than 4 x 10 -5 . (author)

Psychotropic drugs and the risk of fractures in old age: a prospective population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nurminen, Janne; Puustinen, Juha; Piirtola, Maarit; Vahlberg, Tero; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa

2010-07-06

There is evidence that the use of any psychotropic and the concomitant use of two or more benzodiazepines are related to an increased risk of fractures in old age. However, also controversial results exist. The aim was to describe associations between the use of a psychotropic drug, or the concomitant use of two or more of these drugs and the risk of fractures in a population aged 65 years or over. This study was a part of a prospective longitudinal population-based study carried out in the municipality of Lieto, South-Western Finland. The objective was to describe gender-specific associations between the use of one psychotropic drug [benzodiazepine (BZD), antipsychotic (AP) or antidepressant (AD)] or the concomitant use of two or more psychotropic drugs and the risk of fractures in a population 65 years or over. Subjects were participants in the first wave of the Lieto study in 1990-1991, and they were followed up until the end of 1996. Information about fractures confirmed with radiology reports in 1,177 subjects (482 men and 695 women) during the follow-up was collected from medical records. Two follow-up periods (three and six years) were used, and previously found risk factors of fractures were adjusted as confounding factors separately for men and women. The Poisson regression model was used in the analyses. The concomitant use of two or more BZDs and the concomitant use of two or more APs were related to an increased risk of fractures during both follow-up periods after adjusting for confounding factors in men. No similar associations were found in women. The concomitant use of several BZDs and that of several APs are associated with an increase in the risk of fractures in older men. Our findings show only risk relations. We cannot draw the conclusion that these drug combinations are causes of fractures.

Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT): study protocol for a predictive algorithm assessing dementia risk in the community.

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, Stacey; Hsu, Amy; Mojaverian, Nassim; Taljaard, Monica; Huyer, Gregory; Manuel, Douglas G; Tanuseputro, Peter

2017-10-24

The burden of disease from dementia is a growing global concern as incidence increases dramatically with age, and average life expectancy has been increasing around the world. Planning for an ageing population requires reliable projections of dementia prevalence; however, existing population projections are simple and have poor predictive accuracy. The Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT) will predict incidence of dementia in the population setting using multivariable modelling techniques and will be used to project dementia prevalence. The derivation cohort will consist of elderly Ontario respondents of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) (2001, 2003, 2005 and 2007; 18 764 males and 25 288 females). Prespecified predictors include sociodemographic, general health, behavioural, functional and health condition variables. Incident dementia will be identified through individual linkage of survey respondents to population-level administrative healthcare databases (1797 and 3281 events, and 117 795 and 166 573 person-years of follow-up, for males and females, respectively, until 31 March 2014). Using time of first dementia capture as the primary outcome and death as a competing risk, sex-specific proportional hazards regression models will be estimated. The 2008/2009 CCHS survey will be used for validation (approximately 4600 males and 6300 females). Overall calibration and discrimination will be assessed as well as calibration within predefined subgroups of importance to clinicians and policy makers. Research ethics approval has been granted by the Ottawa Health Science Network Research Ethics Board. DemPoRT results will be submitted for publication in peer-review journals and presented at scientific meetings. The algorithm will be assessable online for both population and individual uses. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03155815, pre-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No

Maternal hormone levels and risk of cryptorchism among populations at high and low risk of testicular germ cell tumors.

Science.gov (United States)

McGlynn, Katherine A; Graubard, Barry I; Nam, Jun-Mo; Stanczyk, Frank Z; Longnecker, Matthew P; Klebanoff, Mark A

2005-07-01

Cryptorchism is one of the few well-described risk factors for testicular cancer. It has been suggested that both conditions are related to increased in utero estrogen exposure. The evidence supporting the "estrogen hypothesis" has been inconsistent, however. An alternative hypothesis suggests that higher in utero androgen exposure may protect against the development of cryptorchism and testicular cancer. In order to examine both hypotheses, we studied maternal hormone levels in two populations at diverse risks of testicular cancer; Black Americans (low-risk) and White Americans (high-risk). The study population of 200 mothers of cryptorchid sons and 200 mothers of noncryptorchid sons was nested within the Collaborative Perinatal Project, a cohort study of pregnant women and their children. Third trimester serum levels of estradiol (total, free, bioavailable), estriol, testosterone (total, free, bioavailable), sex hormone-binding globulin, alpha-fetoprotein, and the ratios of estradiols to testosterones were compared between the case and control mothers. The results found no significant differences in the levels of testosterone (total, free, bioavailable), alpha-fetoprotein, sex hormone-binding globulin, or in the ratios of estrogens to androgens. Total estradiol, however, was significantly lower in the cases versus the controls (P = 0.03) among all mothers and, separately, among White mothers (P = 0.05). Similarly, estriol was significantly lower among all cases (P = 0.05) and among White cases (P = 0.05). These results do not support either the estrogen or the androgen hypothesis. Rather, lower estrogens in case mothers may indicate that a placental defect increases the risk of cryptorchism and, possibly, testicular cancer.

Managing Metabolic Syndrome and CHD Risk Factors: Evidence based re-examination of macro nutrients from the Malaysian Population Prospective Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kalyana Sundram

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Our understanding of dietary factors and habits associated with coronary heart disease (CHD risk are undergoing dramatic rethinking in light of fast emerging new scientific data. Multiple risk assessments, especially in understanding Metabolic Syndrome triggers in the population have further confounded understanding and management of traditional risk factors. By far the largest change-impact is being made with regard to fat consumption, especially saturated fats. Emerging evidence, largely through meta-analysis and population studies have regularly challenged the association of saturated fats with increased CHD risk. Indeed there is a growing appreciation that saturates no longer glove-fit risk assessment especially when newer biochemical factors such as lipoprotein particle sizes have emerged to partially explain observed anomalies. The fats we eat may not necessarily be associated with making us fat (obese and obesity is a major health challenge globally. This has redirected dietary assessments more towards excess carbohydrate consumption and their possible adverse outcomes.Drawing on an ongoing population prospective study in Malaysia, such observations are similarly amplified in an urban Malaysian population. Significant carbohydrate associated negative impacts on CHD risk is seen emerging, especially when evaluated against more advanced biochemical markers. Differences in the ethnic groups of the population, modulated through cultural dietary preferences are similarly apparent. In this model, a surprisingly lower risk contributor is the prevailing fat consumption trends in the country. These observations are explained in this presentation aimed at creating better awareness of food factors impacting disease outcomes in an urban Malaysian environment whose make-up includes a substantive South Indian population as well.

Managing Metabolic Syndrome and CHD Risk Factors: Evidence based re-examination of macro nutrients from the Malaysian Population Prospective Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kalyana Sundram

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Our understanding of dietary factors and habits associated with coronary heart disease (CHD risk are undergoing dramatic rethinking in light of fast emerging new scientific data. Multiple risk assessments, especially in understanding Metabolic Syndrome triggers in the population have further confounded understanding and management of traditional risk factors. By far the largest change-impact is being made with regard to fat consumption, especially saturated fats. Emerging evidence, largely through meta-analysis and population studies have regularly challenged the association of saturated fats with increased CHD risk. Indeed there is a growing appreciation that saturates no longer glove-fit risk assessment especially when newer biochemical factors such as lipoprotein particle sizes have emerged to partially explain observed anomalies. The fats we eat may not necessarily be associated with making us fat (obese and obesity is a major health challenge globally. This has redirected dietary assessments more towards excess carbohydrate consumption and their possible adverse outcomes. Drawing on an ongoing population prospective study in Malaysia, such observations are similarly amplified in an urban Malaysian population. Significant carbohydrate associated negative impacts on CHD risk is seen emerging, especially when evaluated against more advanced biochemical markers. Differences in the ethnic groups of the population, modulated through cultural dietary preferences are similarly apparent. In this model, a surprisingly lower risk contributor is the prevailing fat consumption trends in the country. These observations are explained in this presentation aimed at creating better awareness of food factors impacting disease outcomes in an urban Malaysian environment whose make-up includes a substantive South Indian population as well.

A multi-region assessment of population rates of cardiac catheterization and yield of high-risk coronary artery disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clement Fiona M

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There is variation in cardiac catheterization utilization across jurisdictions. Previous work from Alberta, Canada, showed no evidence of a plateau in the yield of high-risk disease at cardiac catheterization rates as high as 600 per 100,000 population suggesting that the optimal rate is higher. This work aims 1 To determine if a previously demonstrated linear relationship between the yield of high-risk coronary disease and cardiac catheterization rates persists with contemporary data and 2 to explore whether the linear relationship exists in other jurisdictions. Methods Detailed clinical information on all patients undergoing cardiac catheterization in 3 Canadian provinces was available through the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcomes Assessment in Coronary Heart (APPROACH disease and partner initiatives in British Columbia and Nova Scotia. Population rates of catheterization and high-risk coronary disease detection for each health region in these three provinces, and age-adjusted rates produced using direct standardization. A mixed effects regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between catheterization rate and high-risk coronary disease detection. Results In the contemporary Alberta data, we found a linear relationship between the population catheterization rate and the high-risk yield. Although the yield was slightly less in time period 2 (2002-2006 than in time period 1(1995-2001, there was no statistical evidence of a plateau. The linear relationship between catheterization rate and high-risk yield was similarly demonstrated in British Columbia and Nova Scotia and appears to extend, without a plateau in yield, to rates over 800 procedures per 100,000 population. Conclusions Our study demonstrates a consistent finding, over time and across jurisdictions, of linearly increasing detection of high-risk CAD as population rates of cardiac catheterization increase. This internationally-relevant finding

Personality factors and suicide risk in a representative sample of the German general population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victor Blüml

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Previous research has shown an association between certain personality characteristics and suicidality. Methodological differences including small sample sizes and missing adjustment for possible confounding factors could explain the varying results. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the Big Five personality dimensions on suicidality in a representative population based sample of adults. METHOD: Interviews were conducted in a representative German population-based sample (n=2555 in 2011. Personality characteristics were assessed using the Big Five Inventory-10 (BFI-10 and suicide risk was assessed with the Suicidal Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised (SBQ-R. Multivariate logistic regression models were calculated adjusting for depression, anxiety, and various sociodemographic variables. RESULTS: Neuroticism and openness were significantly associated with suicide risk, while extraversion and conscientiousness were found to be protective. Significant sex differences were observed. For males, extraversion and conscientiousness were protective factors. Neuroticism and openness were found to be associated with suicide risk only in females. These associations remained significant after adjusting for covariates. CONCLUSION: The results highlight the role of personality dimensions as risk factors for suicide-related behaviors. Different personality dimensions are significantly associated with suicide-related behaviors even when adjusting for other known risk factors of suicidality.

Risk perception of the Belgian population. Results of the public opinion survey in 2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perko, T.; Turcanu, C.; Schroeder, J.; Carle, B.

2010-02-15

The SCK-CEN 2009 risk perception barometer is based on over 1000 Computer Assisted Personal Interviews, taken from persons selected to be representative for the Belgian 18+ population, and all realized in the period July and August 2009. An additional sample , N = 100 is taken from the for the population living in the communities of Lambusart and Wanfercee-Baulet in the municipality of Fleurus. Besides the classical background variables used to obtain the quota for representatively (age, language, habitat, gender and social class), we also included a series of questions assessing the communication and sociological context. The main topics in the survey were I) risk perception and confidence in authorities; II) Attitude towards science and technology and attitudes toward nuclear energy; III) stake holders engagement; IV)acceptance of legal norms for food products; v) media use; vi) evaluation of nuclear actors; VII) psychometric risk characteristics; VII) safety behaviour and anomy; ix) knowledge about nuclear domain; x) risk communication; xi) consumer's attitude towards food with radioactive contamination. Some of the questions asked in 2009 are similar to those enquired in the SCK barometer of 2006 and 2002, in order to study the time evolution of the risk perception associated with various issues.

Risk perception of the Belgian population. Results of the public opinion survey in 2009

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perko, T.; Turcanu, C.; Schroeder, J.; Carle, B.

2010-01-01

The SCK-CEN 2009 risk perception barometer is based on over 1000 Computer Assisted Personal Interviews, taken from persons selected to be representative for the Belgian 18+ population, and all realized in the period July and August 2009. An additional sample , N = 100 is taken from the for the population living in the communities of Lambusart and Wanfercee-Baulet in the municipality of Fleurus. Besides the classical background variables used to obtain the quota for representatively (age, language, habitat, gender and social class), we also included a series of questions assessing the communication and sociological context. The main topics in the survey were I) risk perception and confidence in authorities; II) Attitude towards science and technology and attitudes toward nuclear energy; III) stake holders engagement; IV)acceptance of legal norms for food products; v) media use; vi) evaluation of nuclear actors; VII) psychometric risk characteristics; VII) safety behaviour and anomy; ix) knowledge about nuclear domain; x) risk communication; xi) consumer's attitude towards food with radioactive contamination. Some of the questions asked in 2009 are similar to those enquired in the SCK barometer of 2006 and 2002, in order to study the time evolution of the risk perception associated with various issues.

Association between metabolic syndrome and 10-year risk of developing cardiovascular disease in a Nigerian population.

Science.gov (United States)

Oguoma, Victor M; Nwose, Ezekiel U; Skinner, Timothy C; Richards, Ross S; Digban, Kester A; Onyia, Innocent C

2016-09-01

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and consequential cardiovascular disease (CVD) events are on the increase in Nigeria. The study aimed to identify the prevalence of 10-year CVD risk in a Nigerian population and assess its relationship with different indices of MetS. A cross-sectional study was carried out on apparently healthy persons aged 18 years of age or older. Ten-year risk was calculated using the ATPIII/Framingham criteria. Subjects with risk score 20% at high risk of developing CVD in 10 years. MetS was defined based on the Joint Scientific Statement on Harmonizing the MetS. Of the 211 subjects, mean age was 51.3±17.3 years. Average risk of developing CVD in the next 10 years was 3.7±5.3%. Prevalence of low, moderate and high risk of developing CVD among study participants was 86.3% (95% CI 82.0-91.3%), 11.8% (95% CI 6.9-16.1%) and 1.9% (95% CI 0.0-3.8%), respectively. Prevalence of MetS was 26.7% (95% CI 21.0-33.3%). There was poor agreement between MetS and the CVD risk scores (kappa=0.209, p=0.001) CONCLUSIONS: The results showed that complementary use of MetS and CVD risk score is imperative, as there is indication of risk in individuals without MetS. Also a large proportion of the study population requires lifestyle intervention. These findings provide the evidence necessary to tailor public health interventions in this population, especially towards younger age groups. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma: target population for surveillance and diagnosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, An; Hallouch, Oussama; Chernyak, Victoria; Kamaya, Aya; Sirlin, Claude B

2018-01-01

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the sixth most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. Incidence rates of liver cancer vary widely between geographic regions and are highest in Eastern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In the United States, the incidence of HCC has increased since the 1980s. HCC detection at an early stage through surveillance and curative therapy has considerably improved the 5-year survival. Therefore, medical societies advocate systematic screening and surveillance of target populations at particularly high risk for developing HCC to facilitate early-stage detection. Risk factors for HCC include cirrhosis, chronic infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), excess alcohol consumption, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, family history of HCC, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and smoking. Medical societies utilize risk estimates to define target patient populations in which imaging surveillance is recommended (risk above threshold) or in which the benefits of surveillance are uncertain (risk unknown or below threshold). All medical societies currently recommend screening and surveillance in patients with cirrhosis and subsets of patients with chronic HBV; some societies also include patients with stage 3 fibrosis due to HCV as well as additional groups. Thus, target population definitions vary between regions, reflecting cultural, demographic, economic, healthcare priority, and biological differences. The Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) defines different patient populations for surveillance and for diagnosis and staging. We also discuss general trends pertaining to geographic region, age, gender, ethnicity, impact of surveillance on survival, mortality, and future trends.

Design considerations for identifying breast cancer risk factors in a population-based study in Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Brinton, Louise A; Awuah, Baffour; Nat Clegg-Lamptey, Joe; Wiafe-Addai, Beatrice; Ansong, Daniel; Nyarko, Kofi M; Wiafe, Seth; Yarney, Joel; Biritwum, Richard; Brotzman, Michelle; Adjei, Andrew A; Adjei, Ernest; Aitpillah, Francis; Edusei, Lawrence; Dedey, Florence; Nyante, Sarah J; Oppong, Joseph; Osei-Bonsu, Ernest; Titiloye, Nicholas; Vanderpuye, Verna; Brew Abaidoo, Emma; Arhin, Bernard; Boakye, Isaac; Frempong, Margaret; Ohene Oti, Naomi; Okyne, Victoria; Figueroa, Jonine D

2017-06-15

Although breast cancer is becoming more prevalent in Africa, few epidemiologic studies have been undertaken and appropriate methodologic approaches remain uncertain. We therefore conducted a population-based case-control study in Accra and Kumasi, Ghana, enrolling 2,202 women with lesions suspicious for breast cancer and 2,161 population controls. Biopsy tissue for cases prior to neoadjuvant therapy (if given), blood, saliva and fecal samples were sought for study subjects. Response rates, risk factor prevalences and odds ratios for established breast cancer risk factors were calculated. A total of 54.5% of the recruited cases were diagnosed with malignancies, 36.0% with benign conditions and 9.5% with indeterminate diagnoses. Response rates to interviews were 99.2% in cases and 91.9% in controls, with the vast majority of interviewed subjects providing saliva (97.9% in cases vs. 98.8% in controls) and blood (91.8% vs. 82.5%) samples; lower proportions (58.1% vs. 46.1%) provided fecal samples. While risk factor prevalences were unique as compared to women in other countries (e.g., less education, higher parity), cancer risk factors resembled patterns identified elsewhere (elevated risks associated with higher levels of education, familial histories of breast cancer, low parity and larger body sizes). Subjects with benign conditions were younger and exhibited higher socioeconomic profiles (e.g., higher education and lower parity) than those with malignancies, suggesting selective referral influences. While further defining breast cancer risk factors in Africa, this study showed that successful population-based interdisciplinary studies of cancer in Africa are possible but require close attention to diagnostic referral biases and standardized and documented approaches for high-quality data collection, including biospecimens. © 2017 UICC.

Incidence of migraine and tension-type headache in three different populations at risk within the German DMKG headache study.

Science.gov (United States)

Khil, Laura; Pfaffenrath, Volker; Straube, Andreas; Evers, Stefan; Berger, Klaus

2012-03-01

Unlike the prevalence, the incidence of headache disorders has attracted only little attention in epidemiological research. Different definitions of the 'population at risk' among the few published migraine and tension-type headache incidence studies limit their comparability and warrant further research. Therefore, we analysed data from the German Migraine and Headache Society (DMKG). Incidences were assessed in the general population in Germany via standardized headache questions using the International Classification of Headache Disorders, 2nd Edition (ICHD-2). The population was drawn from a 5-year age-group- stratified and gender-stratified random sample from the population register. Of the 1312 baseline participants examined between 2003 and 2004, 1122 (85.5%) participated in the follow-up in 2006 and were the basis for three different populations at risk. We found that the three populations differed in size, age, gender and incidence estimate. The total sample incidence of migraine ranged between 0% and 3.3% and of tension-type headache between 5.3% and 9.2% depending on the definition of 'at risk'. We concluded that one significant problem in headache incidence estimation is the definition of 'at risk', limiting comparability. Thus, this study supports the need for a common definition for prospective headache incidence estimations.

Symptom Awareness and Cancer Prevention: Exploratory Findings from an At-Risk Population

Science.gov (United States)

Eadie, Douglas; MacAskill, Susan

2008-01-01

Purpose: Secondary prevention programmes have traditionally employed mass screening approaches to assess for asymptomatic signs of cancer. It has been suggested that early detection strategies involving public education and self-referral may prove more cost-effective with low risk populations for cancers with symptomatic presentation. This study,…

A high resolution spatial population database of Somalia for disease risk mapping.

Science.gov (United States)

Linard, Catherine; Alegana, Victor A; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Tatem, Andrew J

2010-09-14

Millions of Somali have been deprived of basic health services due to the unstable political situation of their country. Attempts are being made to reconstruct the health sector, in particular to estimate the extent of infectious disease burden. However, any approach that requires the use of modelled disease rates requires reasonable information on population distribution. In a low-income country such as Somalia, population data are lacking, are of poor quality, or become outdated rapidly. Modelling methods are therefore needed for the production of contemporary and spatially detailed population data. Here land cover information derived from satellite imagery and existing settlement point datasets were used for the spatial reallocation of populations within census units. We used simple and semi-automated methods that can be implemented with free image processing software to produce an easily updatable gridded population dataset at 100 × 100 meters spatial resolution. The 2010 population dataset was matched to administrative population totals projected by the UN. Comparison tests between the new dataset and existing population datasets revealed important differences in population size distributions, and in population at risk of malaria estimates. These differences are particularly important in more densely populated areas and strongly depend on the settlement data used in the modelling approach. The results show that it is possible to produce detailed, contemporary and easily updatable settlement and population distribution datasets of Somalia using existing data. The 2010 population dataset produced is freely available as a product of the AfriPop Project and can be downloaded from: http://www.afripop.org.

Glaucoma screening during regular optician visits : can the population at risk of developing glaucoma be reached?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stoutenbeek, R.; Jansonius, N. M.

2006-01-01

Aim: To determine the percentage of the population at risk of developing glaucoma, which can potentially be reached by conducting glaucoma screening during regular optician visits. Methods: 1200 inhabitants aged > 40 years were randomly selected from Dutch community population databases. A

Population attributable risk of modifiable risk factors associated with invasive breast cancer in women aged 45-69 years in Queensland, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Louise F; Page, Andrew N; Dunn, Nathan A M; Pandeya, Nirmala; Protani, Melinda M; Taylor, Richard J

2013-12-01

To quantify the population attributable risk of key modifiable risk factors associated with breast cancer incidence in Queensland, Australia. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for high body mass index (BMI), use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT), alcohol consumption and inadequate physical activity were calculated, using prevalence data from a representative survey of women attending mammographic screening at BreastScreen Queensland in 2008 and relative risk estimates sourced from published literature. Attributable cancers were calculated using 'underlying' breast cancer incidence data for 2008 based on Poisson regression models, adjusting for the inflation of incidence due to the effects of mammographic screening. Attributable burden of breast cancer due to high body mass index (BMI), use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT), alcohol consumption and inadequate physical activity. In Queensland women aged 45-69 years, an estimated 12.1% (95% CI: 11.6-12.5%) of invasive breast cancers were attributable to high BMI in post-menopausal women who have never used HRT; 2.8% (95% CI: 2.7-2.9%) to alcohol consumption; 7.6% (95% CI: 7.4-7.9%) to inadequate physical activity in post-menopausal women and 6.2% (95% CI: 5.5-7.0%) to current use of HRT after stratification by BMI and type of HRT used. Combined, just over one quarter (26.0%; 95% CI: 25.4-26.6%) of all invasive breast cancers in Queensland women aged 45-69 years in 2008 were attributable to these modifiable risk factors. There is benefit in targeting prevention strategies to modify lifestyle behaviours around BMI, physical activity, HRT use and alcohol consumption, as a reduction in these risk factors could decrease invasive breast cancer incidence in the Queensland population. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increased risk of dialysis and end-stage renal disease among HIV patients in Denmark compared with the background population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasch, Magnus G; Helleberg, Marie; Feldt-Rasmussen, Bo

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: HIV patients have increased risk of impaired renal function. We aimed to estimate the incidence of any renal replacement therapy (aRRT) and start of chronic renal replacement therapy (cRRT) among HIV patients compared with population controls. METHODS: In a nationwide, population......-based cohort study we analysed incidence rates (IR), incidence rate ratios (IRR) and risk factors for aRRT and cRRT among HIV patients compared with an age- and gender-matched population control cohort using Poisson regression. RESULTS: We identified 5300 HIV patients and 53 000 population controls. The IRs...

Do hemophiliacs have a higher risk for dental caries than the general population?

OpenAIRE

Žaliūnienė, Rūta; Aleksejūnienė, Jolanta; Brukienė, Vilma; Pečiulienė, Vytautė

2015-01-01

Objective: The aim of this study was to examine if patients with hemophilia were at increased risk for dental decay as compared to the general population. Materials and methods: Census sampling was used in this case–control study to recruit cases (patients with hemophilia) and a control group individuals recruited randomly from the general population, which were matched with cases based on gender, age and place of residence. Clinical examinations included dental health and salivary assessm...

Do hemophiliacs have a higher risk for dental caries than the general population?

OpenAIRE

Žaliūnienė, Rūta; Aleksejūnienė, Jolanta; Brukienė, Vilma; Pečiulienė, Vytautė

2015-01-01

Objective: The aim of this study was to examine if patients with hemophilia were at increased risk for dental decay as compared to the general population. Materials and methods: Census sampling was used in this case–control study to recruit cases (patients with hemophilia) and a control group individuals recruited randomly from the general population, which were matched with cases based on gender, age and place of residence. Clinical examinations included dental health and salivary assessment...

Dietary patterns and the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A population-based case-control study in a rural population.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xudong; Wang, Xiaorong; Lin, Sihao; Lao, Xiangqian; Zhao, Jin; Song, Qingkun; Su, Xuefen; Tak-Sun Yu, Ignatius

2017-02-01

Few studies were available in exploring the roles of dietary patterns in the development of esophageal cancer, especially in China. This study aimed to investigate the roles of dietary patterns in the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in a Chinese rural population. A population-based cases-control study was designed and conducted in Yanting County, Sichuan Province of China during two years (between June 2011 and May 2013). A total of 942 pairs of ESCC cases and controls were recruited. A food frequency questionnaire was adopted to collect information of dietary consumption. Dietary patterns were extracted by using principle component and factor analysis based on 24 dietary groups. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by using logistic regression model, with adjustment for possible confounding variables. Four major dietary patterns were identified, which were labeled as "prudent", "vegetable and fruits", "processed food" and "alcohol drinking". In comparison of the highest with the lowest quartiles of pattern scores, the processed food pattern (OR: 2.84, 95% CI: 2.13-3.80) and alcohol drinking pattern (OR: 2.69, 95% CI: 1.95-3.71) were significantly associated with an increased risk of ESCC, while the vegetable and fruit pattern (OR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.53-0.92) was associated with reduced risk by 30%. The prudent pattern was associated with a reduced risk by 33% (OR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.50-0.88) in a multivariate logistic regression model, but no statistical significance was reached in a composite model. The results suggest an important role of dietary patterns in ESCC. Diets rich in vegetables and fruits may decrease the risk of ESCC, whereas diets rich in processed food and drinking alcohol may increase the risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Medication use and kidney cancer risk: A population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nayan, Madhur; Juurlink, David N; Austin, Peter C; Macdonald, Erin M; Finelli, Antonio; Kulkarni, Girish S; Hamilton, Robert J

2017-09-01

Exposure to commonly prescribed medications may be associated with cancer risk. However, there is limited data in kidney cancer. Furthermore, methods of classifying cumulative medication exposure in previous studies may be prone to bias. We conducted a population-based case-control study of 10,377 incident kidney cancer cases aged ≥66 years matched with 35,939 controls on age, sex, history of hypertension, comorbidity score, and geographic location. Cumulative exposure to commonly prescribed medications hypothesised to modulate cancer risk was obtained using prescription claims data. We modelled exposure in four different fashions: (1) as continuous exposures using (a) fractional polynomials (which allow for a non-linear relationship between an exposure and outcome) or (b) assuming linear relationships; and 2) as dichotomous exposures denoting (a) ≥3 years versus kidney cancer. The directions of association were relatively consistent across analyses; however, the magnitudes were sensitive to the method of analysis. When utilising fractional polynomials, increasing cumulative exposure to acetylsalicylic acid, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, and proton-pump inhibitors was associated with significantly reduced risk of kidney cancer, while increasing exposure to antihypertensive drugs was associated with significantly increased risk. Our study provides impetus to further explore the effect of commonly prescribed medications on carcinogenesis to identify modifiable pharmacological interventions to reduce the risk of kidney cancer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sexual violence, mood disorders and suicide risk: a population-based study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thaíse Campos Mondin

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract This article seeks to analyze the association between sexual violence, manic and depressive episodes, and suicide risk among young adults. This is a cross-sectional population-based study carried out with young people between 18 and 24 years of age in a town in southern Brazil. The sample was selected through clusters. The prevalence of sexual violence, manic, depressive and mixed episodes and suicide risk were evaluated, as well as the association between them. The chi-square test and Poisson regression were used for statistical analysis. The study sample comprised 1,560 subjects. Among these, 3.1% had suffered sexual violence at some point in their life. The prevalence of depressive, mixed episodes, and (hypomanic episodes were 10%, 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively. Suicide risk had a prevalence of 8.6% in the total sample. Young people who have suffered sexual violence are more likely to be subject to mood changes or suicide risk than those who have not (p < 0.05, except for the occurrence of (hypomanic episodes. These results revealed a strong association between sexual violence and depressive and mixed episodes and suicide risk.

TRIB1 and GCKR polymorphisms, lipid levels, and risk of ischemic heart disease in the general population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Varbo, Anette; Benn, Marianne; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne

2011-01-01

The goal of this study was to test whether TRIB1-rs2954029 and GCKR-rs1260326 associate with lipid levels and risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and myocardial infarction (MI) in the general population.......The goal of this study was to test whether TRIB1-rs2954029 and GCKR-rs1260326 associate with lipid levels and risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and myocardial infarction (MI) in the general population....

[Assessment of non-carcinogenic risk for the health of the child population under the consumption of drinking water].

Science.gov (United States)

Stepanova, N V; Valeeva, E R; Fomina, S F; Ziyatdinova, A I

In the article there are given results of the evaluation of non-carcinogenic risks for the health of the child population residing in different areas (districts) of the city of Kazan with the aim of the subsequent comprehensive assessment of the pollutants in drinking water. Assessment of the risk for the human health was performed correspondingly to with the P 2.1.10.1920-04 for oral route of exposure in accordance to the chemical composition of drinking water with account for the standard and regional factors of the exposure. The results of the risk assessment under the consumption of drinking tap water by the child population with localized place of residence permit to reveal areas with a high level of health risk in the city. The screening assessment of carcinogenic risk due to the consumption of chemicals with drinking water revealed differences in regional and standard values of the exposure factors. This affects both on the value of the chronic average daily intake of chemical contaminants in drinking water and the level of risk under the consumption of drinking water by the child population.

Falls risk assessment begins with hello: lessons learned from the use of one home health agency's fall risk tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Flemming, Patricia J; Ramsay, Katherine

2012-10-01

Identifying older adults at risk for falls is a challenge all home healthcare agencies (HHAs) face. The process of assessing for falls risk begins with the initial home visit. One HHA affiliated with an academic medical center describes its experience in development and use of a Falls Risk Assessment (FRA) tool over a 10-year period. The FRA tool has been modified since initial development to clarify elements of the tool based on research and to reflect changes in the Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) document. The primary purpose of this article is to share a validated falls risk assessment tool to facilitate identification of fall-related risk factors in the homebound population. A secondary purpose is to share lessons learned by the HHA during the 10 years using the FRA.

Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Comparison of the Risk between Physicians and the General Population

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yen-ting; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Weng, Shih-Feng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Lin, Hung-Jung; Su, Shih-Bin; Guo, How-Ran; Juan, Chi-Wen

2015-01-01

Physicians in Taiwan have a heavy workload and a stressful workplace, both of which may contribute to cardiovascular disease. However, the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in physicians is not clear. This population-based cohort study used Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. We identified 28,062 physicians as the case group and randomly selected 84,186 nonmedical staff patients as the control group. We used a conditional logistic regression to compare the AMI risk between physicians and controls. Subgroup analyses of physician specialty, age, gender, comorbidities, area, and hospital level were also done. Physicians have a higher prevalence of HTN (23.59% versus 19.06%, P Taiwan's physicians had higher prevalences of HTN and hyperlipidemia, but a lower risk of AMI than did the general population. Medical center physicians had a lower risk than did local clinic physicians. Physicians are not necessary healthier than the general public, but physicians, especially in medical centers, have a greater awareness of disease and greater access to medical care, which permits timely treatment and may prevent critical conditions such as AMI induced by delayed treatment. PMID:25802869

Risk of erectile dysfunction in transfusion-naive thalassemia men: a nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study.