WorldWideScience

Sample records for reference scenarios calculations

  1. ENRAF gauge reference level calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huber, J.H., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-02-06

    This document describes the method for calculating reference levels for Enraf Series 854 Level Detectors as installed in the tank farms. The reference level calculation for each installed level gauge is contained herein.

  2. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  3. Dose calculations for severe LWR accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margulies, T.S.; Martin, J.A. Jr.

    1984-05-01

    This report presents a set of precalculated doses based on a set of postulated accident releases and intended for use in emergency planning and emergency response. Doses were calculated for the PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) accident categories of the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) using the CRAC (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) code. Whole body and thyroid doses are presented for a selected set of weather cases. For each weather case these calculations were performed for various times and distances including three different dose pathways - cloud (plume) shine, ground shine and inhalation. During an emergency this information can be useful since it is immediately available for projecting offsite radiological doses based on reactor accident sequence information in the absence of plant measurements of emission rates (source terms). It can be used for emergency drill scenario development as well

  4. The Reference Scenarios for the Swiss Emergency Planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanspeter Isaak; Navert, Stephan B.; Ralph Schulz

    2006-01-01

    For the purpose of emergency planning and preparedness, realistic reference scenarios and corresponding accident source terms have been defined on the basis of common plant features. Three types of representative reference scenarios encompass the accident sequences expected to be the most probable. Accident source terms are assumed to be identical for all Swiss nuclear power plants, although the plants differ in reactor type and power. Plant-specific probabilistic safety analyses were used to justify the reference scenarios and the postulated accident source terms. From the full spectrum of release categories available, those categories were selected which would be covered by the releases and time frames assumed in the reference scenarios. For each nuclear power plant, the cumulative frequency of accident sequences not covered by the reference scenarios was determined. It was found that the cumulative frequency for such accident sequences does not exceed about 1 x 10 -6 per year. The Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate concludes that the postulated accident source terms for the reference scenarios are consistent with the current international approach in emergency planning, where one should concentrate on the most probable accident sequences. (N.C.)

  5. Second reference calculation for the WIPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Branstetter, L.J.

    1985-03-01

    Results of the second reference calculation for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) project using the dynamic relaxation finite element code SANCHO are presented. This reference calculation is intended to predict the response of a typical panel of excavated rooms designed for storage of nonheat-producing nuclear waste. Results are presented that include relevant deformations, relative clay seam displacements, and stress and strain profiles. This calculation is a particular solution obtained by a computer code, which has proven analytic capabilities when compared with other structural finite element codes. It is hoped that the results presented here will be useful in providing scoping values for defining experiments and for developing instrumentation. It is also hoped that the calculation will be useful as part of an exercise in developing a methodology for performing important design calculations by more than one analyst using more than one computer code, and for defining internal Quality Assurance (QA) procedures for such calculations. 27 refs., 15 figs

  6. Identification of reference accident scenarios in SEVESO establishments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delvosalle, C.; Fievez, C.; Pipart, A.; Fabrega, J. Casal; Planas, E.; Christou, M.; Mushtaq, F.

    2005-01-01

    In the frame of the ESREL special session on ARAMIS project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the first Work Package, devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment, and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. A first part of the work aims at building a Methodology for the Identification of Major Accident Hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. This work is coupled with an historical analysis of accidents. In a second part, influence of safety devices and policies will be considered, in order to build a Methodology for the Identification of Reference Accident Scenarios (MIRAS). This last one will take into account safety systems and lead to obtain more realistic scenarios

  7. Atomic Reference Data for Electronic Structure Calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Kotochigova, S; Shirley, E L

    We have generated data for atomic electronic structure calculations, to provide a standard reference for results of specified accuracy under commonly used approximations. Results are presented here for total energies and orbital energy eigenvalues for all atoms from H to U, at microHartree accuracy in the total energy, as computed in the local-density approximation (LDA) the local-spin-density approximation (LSD); the relativistic local-density approximation (RLDA); and scalar-relativistic local-density approximation (ScRLDA).

  8. Canada's energy future : reference case and scenarios to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Energy is essential to the comfort and economic prosperity of Canadians. This report highlighted some of the issues that Canada faces with respect to its energy future. The report focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand, and examined various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030. Three different scenarios were presented: (1) a continuing trends scenario; (2) a triple E scenario in which economic, environmental and energy objectives are balanced; and (3) a fortified islands scenario in which security concerns were coupled with international unrest and protectionist governments. The report determined that energy demand will remain a function of population and economic growth. Automobiles will continue to rely on fossil fuels. Energy efficiency will improve in relation to the effectiveness of government policies, and a move towards natural gas alternatives will occur. However, fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy supply. Oil sands production grew in all 3 of the evaluated scenarios. It is expected that total natural gas production will decline and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will increase. In all 3 scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased or only slightly declined. A full spectrum of GHG mitigation strategies will need to be implemented so that Canada can meet its target of a 20 per cent reduction in GHGs by 2020. It was concluded that effective policies are needed to optimize Canada's multiple objectives of economic growth, environment sustainability, and development of energy resources. 6 tabs., 118 figs

  9. Consistent Posttest Calculations for LOCA Scenarios in LOBI Integral Facility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Reventós

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Integral test facilities (ITFs are one of the main tools for the validation of best estimate thermalhydraulic system codes. The experimental data are also of great value when compared to the experiment-scaled conditions in a full NPP. The LOBI was a single plus a triple-loop (simulated by one loop test facility electrically heated to simulate a 1300 MWe PWR. The scaling factor was 712 for the core power, volume, and mass flow. Primary and secondary sides contained all main active elements. Tests were performed for the characterization of phenomenologies relevant to large and small break LOCAs and special transients in PWRs. The paper presents the results of three posttest calculations of LOBI experiments. The selected experiments are BL-30, BL-44, and A1-84. They are LOCA scenarios of different break sizes and with different availability of safety injection components. The goal of the analysis is to improve the knowledge of the phenomena occurred in the facility in order to use it in further studies related to qualifying nodalizations of actual plants or to establish accuracy data bases for uncertainty methodologies. An example of procedure of implementing changes in a common nodalization valid for simulating tests occurred in a specific ITF is presented along with its confirmation based on posttests results.

  10. Emissions in 2001 conform the reference scenario (GE WLO with high oil price) and including Clean and Efficient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroon, P.; Menkveld, M.

    2008-08-01

    This memo shows the calculation of an estimate for the total greenhouse gas emissions in 2011 in the reference scenario (GE WLO is the Dutch abbreviation for Global Economy and Welfare and Environment), including the impact of the Clean and Efficient programme from the assessment of ECN (Energy research Centre of the Netherlands) and MNP (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) [nl

  11. Atmospheric composition calculations for evaluation of climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krol, M.S.; Woerd, H.J. van der

    1994-01-01

    The future radiative forcing by non-CO 2 greenhouse gases depends strongly on the behavior of the OH radical, which represents the primary sink for CH 4 , CO and H(C)FCs in the atmosphere. The authors present a simple model to describe the changes in the concentration of the main greenhouse gases. The focus is on the description of the atmospheric chemistry of OH and the important tropospheric oxidant and greenhouse gas O 3 . Changes in the equilibrium concentrations of these oxidants will change the trends in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially CH 4 . The model is applied to the 1992 IPCC emissions scenarios, as well as to an IMAGE 2.0 scenario, based on 'Conventional Wisdom' assumptions. The following major results are found: for the central estimate of emissions assuming no additional policies (IS92a), the concentration of CH 4 keeps rising at rates similar to those observed over the last decades; results for the other IS92 scenarios range from stabilization early in the next century (IS92d) to an ever increasing rate of accumulation of CH 4 in the atmosphere (IS92f), even though these scenarios assume no policy interventions. The IMAGE 2.0 Conventional Wisdom scenario is similar to IS92a before the year 2025; afterwards the expansion of agricultural area significantly decreases the emissions of hydrocarbons and NO x from savanna burning, not represented in the IS92 scenarios. This leads to stable levels of atmospheric CH 4 after 2025

  12. Comparison of experimental and calculated shielding factors for modular buildings in a radioactive fallout scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hinrichsen, Yvonne; Finck, Robert; Östlund, Karl

    2018-01-01

    building used was a standard prefabricated structure obtained from a commercial manufacturer. Four reference positions for the gamma radiation detectors were used inside the building. Theoretical dose rate calculations were performed using the Monte Carlo code MCNP6, and additional calculations were......Experimentally and theoretically determined shielding factors for a common light construction dwelling type were obtained and compared. Sources of the gamma-emitting radionuclides 60Co and 137Cs were positioned around and on top of a modular building to represent homogeneous fallout. The modular...... performed that compared the shielding factor for 137Cs and 134Cs. This work demonstrated the applicability of using MCNP6 for theoretical calculations of radioactive fallout scenarios. Furthermore, the work showed that the shielding effect for modular buildings is almost the same for 134Cs as for 137Cs....

  13. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Normally, transport project assessment is based upon a cost-benefit approach where evaluation criteria such as net present values are obtained. Recent research...... construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This stochastic approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary...

  14. Radionuclide release calculations for selected severe accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denning, R.S.; Leonard, M.T.; Cybulskis, P.; Lee, K.W.; Kelly, R.F.; Jordan, H.; Schumacher, P.M.; Curtis, L.A.

    1990-08-01

    This report provides the results of source term calculations that were performed in support of the NUREG-1150 study. ''Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Power Plants.'' This is the sixth volume of a series of reports. It supplements results presented in the earlier volumes. Analyses were performed for three of the NUREG-1150 plants: Peach Bottom, a Mark I, boiling water reactor; Surry, a subatmospheric containment, pressurized water reactor; and Sequoyah, an ice condenser containment, pressurized water reactor. Complete source term results are presented for the following sequences: short term station blackout with failure of the ADS system in the Peach Bottom plant; station blackout with a pump seal LOCA for the Surry plant; station blackout with a pump seal LOCA in the Sequoyah plant; and a very small break with loss of ECC and spray recirculation in the Sequoyah plant. In addition, some partial analyses were performed which did not require running all of the modules of the Source Term Code Package. A series of MARCH3 analyses were performed for the Surry and Sequoyah plants to evaluate the effects of alternative emergency operating procedures involving primary and secondary depressurization on the progress of the accident. Only thermal-hydraulic results are provided for these analyses. In addition, three accident sequences were analyzed for the Surry plant for accident-induced failure of steam generator tubes. In these analyses, only the transport of radionuclides within the primary system and failed steam generator were examined. The release of radionuclides to the environment is presented for the phase of the accident preceding vessel meltthrough. 17 refs., 176 figs., 113 tabs

  15. The iTREN-2030 reference scenario until 2030. Deliverable D4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fiorello, Davide; De Stasio, Claudia; Koehler, Jonathan; Kraft, Markus; Netwon, Sean; Purwanto, Joko; Schade, Burkhard; Schade, Wolfgang; Szimba, Eckhard

    2009-07-01

    The basic objective of iTREN-2030 is to extend the forecasting and assessment capabilities of the TRANS-TOOLS transport model to the new policy issues arising from the technology, environment and energy fields. This is achieved by couplin the TRANS-TOOLS model with three other models, ASTRA, POLES and TREMOVE covering these new policy issues. The TRANS-TOOLS transport network model has been developed to constitute the reference tool for supporting transport policy in the EU and currently is being developed in several European projects. The scenario set-up to be developed in iTREN-2030 has been modified, so that the projects develops a reference scenario and an integrated scenario. For the reference scenario, the three other modelling tools are harmonised with TRANS-TOOLS and made consistent with each other. This results in a coherent scenario for Europe until 2030 for technology, transport, energy, environment and economic development. The integrated scenario will consider the changing framework conditions until 2030, inparticular the policy pressure coming from climate policy and the increasing scarcity of fossil fuels as well as the impact of the financial and economic crisis. Within the iTREN-2030 project, the overall objective of Work Package 4 (WP4) producing tis deliverable is to develop the reference scenario for the quantitative projections using the four modelling tools involved in the project. The main aims of WP4 are to (a) define a consistent framework for using the different tools in an integrated way; (b) calibrate models with exchanged input to a coherent joint reference; (c) implement external input from WP3 and running models for projections; (d) produce output procedures and templates to facilitate assessment in WP5.

  16. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference

  17. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence determination of a waste tank criticality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marusich, R.M. Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for criticality consequences for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Criticality scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided

  18. Reference Value Advisor: a new freeware set of macroinstructions to calculate reference intervals with Microsoft Excel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geffré, Anne; Concordet, Didier; Braun, Jean-Pierre; Trumel, Catherine

    2011-03-01

    International recommendations for determination of reference intervals have been recently updated, especially for small reference sample groups, and use of the robust method and Box-Cox transformation is now recommended. Unfortunately, these methods are not included in most software programs used for data analysis by clinical laboratories. We have created a set of macroinstructions, named Reference Value Advisor, for use in Microsoft Excel to calculate reference limits applying different methods. For any series of data, Reference Value Advisor calculates reference limits (with 90% confidence intervals [CI]) using a nonparametric method when n≥40 and by parametric and robust methods from native and Box-Cox transformed values; tests normality of distributions using the Anderson-Darling test and outliers using Tukey and Dixon-Reed tests; displays the distribution of values in dot plots and histograms and constructs Q-Q plots for visual inspection of normality; and provides minimal guidelines in the form of comments based on international recommendations. The critical steps in determination of reference intervals are correct selection of as many reference individuals as possible and analysis of specimens in controlled preanalytical and analytical conditions. Computing tools cannot compensate for flaws in selection and size of the reference sample group and handling and analysis of samples. However, if those steps are performed properly, Reference Value Advisor, available as freeware at http://www.biostat.envt.fr/spip/spip.php?article63, permits rapid assessment and comparison of results calculated using different methods, including currently unavailable methods. This allows for selection of the most appropriate method, especially as the program provides the CI of limits. It should be useful in veterinary clinical pathology when only small reference sample groups are available. ©2011 American Society for Veterinary Clinical Pathology.

  19. An analysis of uncertainties in the reference resonance absorption calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milosevic, M.; Pesic, M.

    1997-05-01

    A recently appeared generation of design-oriented methods, which allows to compute the space and energy dependence of the resonant absorption inside the fuel rod, induces a new problem of validation of results obtained with improved resonance treatments, Because no experimental results are available on the spatial and energy distribution of resonance absorption, detailed reference calculations were generated with the continuos-energy Monte Carlo and energy pointwise slowing-down codes. The accuracy of these calculations depends>on various in.fluences. In this paper an analysis of some influences, such as differences ;n nuclear data libraries and philosophy of reproducing the cross section data, is presented. Example application is given for a calculation benchmark that consists of determination of resonance absorption by 238 U in typical PWR pin cell geometry (author)

  20. Reference Monte Carlo calculations of Maria reactor core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrzejewski, K.; Kulikowska, T.

    2002-01-01

    The reference Monte Carlo calculations of MARIA reactor core have been carried to evaluate accuracy of the calculations at each stage of its neutron-physics analysis using deterministic codes. The elementary cell has been calculated with two main goals; evaluation of effects of simplifications introduced in deterministic lattice spectrum calculations by the WIMS code and evaluation of library data in recently developed WIMS libraries. In particular the beryllium data of those libraries needed evaluation. The whole core calculations mainly the first MARIA critical experiment and the first critical core after the 8-year break in operation. Both cores contained only fresh fuel elements but only in the first critical core the beryllium blocks were not poisoned by Li-6 and He-3. Thus the MCNP k-eff results could be compared with the experiment. The MCNP calculations for the cores with beryllium poisoned suffered the deficiency of uncertainty in the poison concentration, but a comparison of power distribution shows that realistic poison levels have been carried out for the operating reactor MARIA configurations. (author)

  1. Weather scenarios for dose calculations with incomplete meteorological data. V.IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alp, E.; Lam, L.H.; Moran, M.D.

    1985-09-01

    This report documents a study to substantiate or modify the weather scenarios proposed by the Atomic Energy Control Board Staff Position Paper on meteorological acceptance criteria for estimating the potential radiological consequences of postulated accidents (AECB, 1982) for short-, prolonged-, and long-term releases from ground level and elevated sources. The study examined available meteorological data in Canada to determine whether the AECB-proposed scenarios are sufficiently general that they are appropriate and conservative for any potential nuclear power plant in Canada, but also realistic, i.e., not so conservative that the results of dose calculations using these scenarios would be wholly unrepresentative leading to incorrect design decisions. Three different sets of scenarios were derived using three site-specific data sets from weather stations that are representative of existing nuclear power plants in Canada. When compared, the scenarios for the three sites are not significantly different from each other, especially in terms of trends, considering that they have been based on data from widely differing meteorological regions in Canada. Conservative envelopes of the scenarios for the three sites were taken to give the recommended general weather scenario set. The recommended set was then compared with the AECB proposed scenarios. The recommended scenarios are, in general, conservative

  2. Weather scenarios for dose calculations with incomplete meteorological data. V.I.(rev.1)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alp, E.; Lam, L.H.; Moran, M.D.

    1985-09-01

    This report documents a study to substantiate or modify the weather scenarios proposed by the Atomic Energy Control Board Staff Position Paper on meteorological acceptance criteria for estimating the potential radiological consequences of postulated accidents (AECB, 1982) for short-, prolonged-, and long-term releases from ground level and elevated sources. The study examined available meteorological data in Canada to determine whether the AECB-proposed scenarios are sufficiently general that they are appropriate and conservative for any potential nuclear power plant in Canada, but also realistic, i.e., not so conservative that the results of dose calculations using these scenarios would be wholly unrepresentative leading to incorrect design decisions. Three different sets of scenarios were derived using three site-specific data sets from weather stations that are representative of existing nuclear power plants in Canada. When compared, the scenarios for the three sites are not significantly different from each other, especially in terms of trends, considering that they have been based on data from widely differing meteorological regions in Canada. Conservative envelopes of the scenarios for the three sites were taken to give the recommended general weather scenario set. The recommended set was then compared with the AECB proposed scenarios. The recommended scenarios are, in general, conservative

  3. ARAMIS project: A comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delvosalle, Christian; Fievez, Cecile; Pipart, Aurore; Debray, Bruno

    2006-01-01

    In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term 'major accidents' must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed. A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called 'risk matrix', crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents. This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage

  4. MCOR - Monte Carlo depletion code for reference LWR calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puente Espel, Federico, E-mail: fup104@psu.edu [Department of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, Pennsylvania State University (United States); Tippayakul, Chanatip, E-mail: cut110@psu.edu [Department of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, Pennsylvania State University (United States); Ivanov, Kostadin, E-mail: kni1@psu.edu [Department of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, Pennsylvania State University (United States); Misu, Stefan, E-mail: Stefan.Misu@areva.com [AREVA, AREVA NP GmbH, Erlangen (Germany)

    2011-04-15

    Research highlights: > Introduction of a reference Monte Carlo based depletion code with extended capabilities. > Verification and validation results for MCOR. > Utilization of MCOR for benchmarking deterministic lattice physics (spectral) codes. - Abstract: The MCOR (MCnp-kORigen) code system is a Monte Carlo based depletion system for reference fuel assembly and core calculations. The MCOR code is designed as an interfacing code that provides depletion capability to the LANL Monte Carlo code by coupling two codes: MCNP5 with the AREVA NP depletion code, KORIGEN. The physical quality of both codes is unchanged. The MCOR code system has been maintained and continuously enhanced since it was initially developed and validated. The verification of the coupling was made by evaluating the MCOR code against similar sophisticated code systems like MONTEBURNS, OCTOPUS and TRIPOLI-PEPIN. After its validation, the MCOR code has been further improved with important features. The MCOR code presents several valuable capabilities such as: (a) a predictor-corrector depletion algorithm, (b) utilization of KORIGEN as the depletion module, (c) individual depletion calculation of each burnup zone (no burnup zone grouping is required, which is particularly important for the modeling of gadolinium rings), and (d) on-line burnup cross-section generation by the Monte Carlo calculation for 88 isotopes and usage of the KORIGEN libraries for PWR and BWR typical spectra for the remaining isotopes. Besides the just mentioned capabilities, the MCOR code newest enhancements focus on the possibility of executing the MCNP5 calculation in sequential or parallel mode, a user-friendly automatic re-start capability, a modification of the burnup step size evaluation, and a post-processor and test-matrix, just to name the most important. The article describes the capabilities of the MCOR code system; from its design and development to its latest improvements and further ameliorations. Additionally

  5. MCOR - Monte Carlo depletion code for reference LWR calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puente Espel, Federico; Tippayakul, Chanatip; Ivanov, Kostadin; Misu, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → Introduction of a reference Monte Carlo based depletion code with extended capabilities. → Verification and validation results for MCOR. → Utilization of MCOR for benchmarking deterministic lattice physics (spectral) codes. - Abstract: The MCOR (MCnp-kORigen) code system is a Monte Carlo based depletion system for reference fuel assembly and core calculations. The MCOR code is designed as an interfacing code that provides depletion capability to the LANL Monte Carlo code by coupling two codes: MCNP5 with the AREVA NP depletion code, KORIGEN. The physical quality of both codes is unchanged. The MCOR code system has been maintained and continuously enhanced since it was initially developed and validated. The verification of the coupling was made by evaluating the MCOR code against similar sophisticated code systems like MONTEBURNS, OCTOPUS and TRIPOLI-PEPIN. After its validation, the MCOR code has been further improved with important features. The MCOR code presents several valuable capabilities such as: (a) a predictor-corrector depletion algorithm, (b) utilization of KORIGEN as the depletion module, (c) individual depletion calculation of each burnup zone (no burnup zone grouping is required, which is particularly important for the modeling of gadolinium rings), and (d) on-line burnup cross-section generation by the Monte Carlo calculation for 88 isotopes and usage of the KORIGEN libraries for PWR and BWR typical spectra for the remaining isotopes. Besides the just mentioned capabilities, the MCOR code newest enhancements focus on the possibility of executing the MCNP5 calculation in sequential or parallel mode, a user-friendly automatic re-start capability, a modification of the burnup step size evaluation, and a post-processor and test-matrix, just to name the most important. The article describes the capabilities of the MCOR code system; from its design and development to its latest improvements and further ameliorations

  6. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  7. Modeling of radionuclide transport through rock formations and the resulting radiation exposure of reference persons. Calculations using Asse II parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kueppers, Christian; Ustohalova, Veronika; Steinhoff, Mathias

    2012-01-01

    The long-term release of radioactivity into the ground water path cannot be excluded for the radioactive waste repository Asse II. The possible radiological consequences were analyzed using a radio-ecological scenario developed by GRS. A second scenario was developed considering the solubility of radionuclides in salt saturated solutions and retarding/retention effects during the radionuclide transport through the cap rock layers. The modeling of possible radiation exposure was based on the lifestyle habits of reference persons. In Germany the calculation procedure for the prediction of radionuclide release from final repositories is not defined by national standards, the used procedures are based on analogue methods from other radiation protection calculations.

  8. Radionuclide release calculations for selected severe accident scenarios. Volume 3. PWR, subatmospheric containment design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denning, R.S.; Gieseke, J.A.; Cybulskis, P.; Lee, K.W.; Jordan, H.; Curtis, L.A.; Kelly, R.F.; Kogan, V.; Schumacher, P.M.

    1986-07-01

    This report presents results of analyses of the enviromental releases of fission products (source terms) for severe accident scenarios in a pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment design. The analyses were performed to support the Severe Accident Risk Reduction/Risk Rebaselining Program (SARRP) which is being undertaken for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories. In the SARRP program, risk estimates are being generated for a number of reference plant designs. the Surry plant has been used in this study as the reference plant for a subatmospheric design

  9. Decision support systems in nuclear emergencies: A scenario-based comparison of domestic and reference tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vamanu, D.; Slavnicu, S. D.; Slavnicu, E.; Vamanu, B.

    2004-01-01

    The article reports selective results of a comparison between RODOS - an emerging decision support system for the management of nuclear emergencies in Europe developed by an international research consortium under EEC aegis, and a resident software package developed and maintained for similar purposes at IFIN-HH, Bucharest. Reproducible similarity patterns obtained in the output data distributions provide for simple normalising procedures that may ensure convergent radiological assessments. When properly consolidated on a sufficient scenario casuistry, such procedures could lend a certain resilience to domestic decision support tools over the interim lead time required by the full implementation of RODOS, or other major league, internationally accepted reference systems. (authors)

  10. Nuclide release calculation in the near-field of a reference HLW repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Hwang, Yong Soo; Kang, Chul Hyung

    2004-01-01

    The HLW-relevant R and D program for disposal of high-level radioactive waste has been carried out at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) since early 1997 in order to develop a conceptual Korea Reference Repository System for direct disposal of nuclear spent fuel by the end of 2007. A preliminary reference geologic repository concept considering such established criteria and requirements as waste and generic site characteristics in Korea was roughly envisaged in 2003 focusing on the near-field components of the repository system. According to above basic repository concept, which is similar to that of Swedish KBS-3 repository, the spent fuel is first encapsulated in corrosion resistant canisters, even though the material has not yet been determined, and then emplaced into the deposition holes surrounded by high density bentonite clay in tunnels constructed at a depth of about 500 m in a stable plutonic rock body. Not only to demonstrate how much a reference repository is safe in the generic point of view with several possible scenarios and cases associated with a preliminary repository concept by conducting calculations for nuclide release and transport in the near-field components of the repository, even though enough information has not been available that much yet, but also to show a methodology by which a generic safety assessment could be performed for further development of Korea reference repository concept, nuclide release calculation study strongly seems to be necessary

  11. Reference scenarios for deforestation and forest degradation in support of REDD: a review of data and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olander, Lydia P; Murray, Brian C; Gibbs, Holly K; Steininger, Marc; Swenson, Jennifer J

    2008-01-01

    Global climate policy initiatives are now being proposed to compensate tropical forest nations for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). These proposals have the potential to include developing countries more actively in international greenhouse gas mitigation and to address a substantial share of the world's emissions which come from tropical deforestation. For such a policy to be viable it must have a credible benchmark against which emissions reduction can be calculated. This benchmark, sometimes termed a baseline or reference emissions scenario, can be based directly on historical emissions or can use historical emissions as input for business as usual projections. Here, we review existing data and methods that could be used to measure historical deforestation and forest degradation reference scenarios including FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) national statistics and various remote sensing sources. The freely available and corrected global Landsat imagery for 1990, 2000 and soon to come for 2005 may be the best primary data source for most developing countries with other coarser resolution high frequency or radar data as a valuable complement for addressing problems with cloud cover and for distinguishing larger scale degradation. While sampling of imagery has been effectively useful for pan-tropical and continental estimates of deforestation, wall-to-wall (or full coverage) allows more detailed assessments for measuring national-level reference emissions. It is possible to measure historical deforestation with sufficient certainty for determining reference emissions, but there must be continued calls at the international level for making high-resolution imagery available, and for financial and technical assistance to help countries determine credible reference scenarios. The data available for past years may not be sufficient for assessing all forms of forest degradation, but new data sources

  12. Radionuclide release calculations for selected severe accident scenarios. PWR, ice condenser design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denning, R S; Gieseke, J A; Cybulskis, P; Lee, K W; Jordan, H; Curtis, L A; Kelly, R F; Kogan, V; Schumacher, P M

    1986-07-01

    This report presents results of analyses of the environmental releases of fission products (source terms) for severe accident scenarios in a pressurized water reactor with an ice-condenser containment. The analyses were performed to support the Severe Accident Risk Reduction/Risk Rebaselining Program (SARRP) which is being undertaken for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories. In the SARRP program, risk estimates are being generated for a number of reference plant designs. The Sequoyah Plant has been used in this study as an example of a PWR ice-condenser plant. (author)

  13. Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Evaluation of emission reduction scenarios using chemical transport calculations. Traffic model TREMOD and traffic model TREMOVE. Sub-report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, Rainer

    2013-01-01

    The calculation of transport emissions in PAREST project is made with traffic model TREMOD 4.17 (Transport Emission Model) used by the Federal Environment Agency based on the emission factors of HBEFA 2.1 (Handbook on Emission Factors for Road Traffic). For the PAREST reference scenario 2010-2020 (CLE scenario, ''current legislation'') TREMOD 4.17 was changed (TREMOD 4.17M) in such way that measures ''Introduction of Euro 5 and 6 limit levels for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles'', ''Introduction of a limit value stage Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles'' and ''Existing truck tolls including promoting the purchase of low-emission heavy duty vehicles'' are integrated in the reference scenario and are no longer treated as an additional measure (Joerss et al., 2010). As an alternative to TREMOD 4.17M emission data sets were created for the project, in which the traffic emissions were calculated with the TREMOVE, version 2.7 (Kugler et al., 2010). TREMOVE is the traffic model used by the European Commission for the development of traffic scenarios. This report documents the differences between the immission distributions of PM10 and NO 2 , resulting from the application of the European transport model. Considered are the reference 2005, which describes the current state for the year 2005 and the 2020 reference that describes the emission state in 2020 to be achieved. [de

  14. OSCAAR calculations for the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Tomita, Kenichi

    2000-10-01

    This report presents the results obtained from the application of the accident consequence assessment code, called OSCAAR, developed in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute to the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2 organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The scenario relates to an inadvertent release of 131 I to atmosphere from the Hanford Purex Chemical Separations Plant on 2-5 September 1963. This exercise was used to test the atmospheric dispersion and deposition models and food chain transport models for 131 I in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainty with respect both to the part of the assessment and to the overall assessment. The OSCAAR food chain model performed relatively well, while the atmospheric dispersion and deposition calculations made using wind data at the release height and wind fields by simple interpolation of the surrounding surface wind data indicated limited capabilities. The Monte Carlo based uncertainty and sensitivity method linked with OSCAAR successfully demonstrated its usefulness in the scenario. The method presented here also allowed the determination of the parameters that have the most important impact in accident consequence assessments. (author)

  15. OSCAAR calculations for the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Tomita, Kenichi [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Inoue, Yoshihisa [Visible Information Center Inc., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2000-10-01

    This report presents the results obtained from the application of the accident consequence assessment code, called OSCAAR, developed in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute to the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2 organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The scenario relates to an inadvertent release of {sup 131}I to atmosphere from the Hanford Purex Chemical Separations Plant on 2-5 September 1963. This exercise was used to test the atmospheric dispersion and deposition models and food chain transport models for {sup 131}I in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainty with respect both to the part of the assessment and to the overall assessment. The OSCAAR food chain model performed relatively well, while the atmospheric dispersion and deposition calculations made using wind data at the release height and wind fields by simple interpolation of the surrounding surface wind data indicated limited capabilities. The Monte Carlo based uncertainty and sensitivity method linked with OSCAAR successfully demonstrated its usefulness in the scenario. The method presented here also allowed the determination of the parameters that have the most important impact in accident consequence assessments. (author)

  16. IAEA activities related to safety indicators, time frames and reference scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batandjieva, B.; Hioki, K.; Metcalf, P.

    2002-01-01

    which was completed last year. The project proposed a methodology for the development of reference biospheres which is in line with suggestions of the International Commission for Radiological Protection 81 (ICRP). Its application is illustrated by way of three example biospheres. At present the Agency is continuing the work on development of reference scenarios for waste disposal in order to assist in the development of international agreement on the main principles and concepts for development and use of reference scenarios for use in the development of safety cases and decision making related to waste repositories. (authors)

  17. A Fast Time-Delay Calculation Method in Through-Wall-Radar Detection Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Qi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In TWR (Through Wall Radar signal processing procedure, time delay estimation is one of the key steps in target localization and high resolution imaging. In time domain imaging procedure such as back projection imaging algorithm, round trip propagation time delay at the path of “transmitter-target-receiver” needs to be calculated for each pixel in imaging region. In typical TWR scenario, transmitter and receiver are at one side and targets at the other side of a wall. Based on two-dimensional searching algorithm or solving two variables equation of four times, traditional time delay calculation algorithms are complex and time consuming, and cannot be used to real-time imaging procedure. In this paper, a new fast time-delay (FTD algorithm is presented. Because of that incident angle at one side equals to refracting angle at the other side, an equation of lateral distance through the wall can be established. By solving this equation, the lateral distance can be obtained and total propagation time delay can be calculated subsequently. Through processing simulation data, the result shows that new algorithm can be applied effectively to real-time time-delay calculation in TWR signal processing.

  18. Reference moderator calculated performance for the LANSCE upgrade project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguson, P.D.; Russell, G.J.; Pitcher, E.J.

    1995-01-01

    The authors have calculated the performance of five moderators of interest to the LANSCE upgrade project. Coupled and decoupled light water and liquid hydrogen moderators in flux-trap geometry surrounded by a neutronically infinite heavy-water cooled beryllium reflector have been studied. Time and energy spectra, as well as semi-empirical fits to the data, are presented. The data has been made available to aid the instrument design and moderator selection process

  19. Development of a reference scheme for MOX lattice physics calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finck, P.J.; Stenberg, C.G.; Roy, R.

    1998-01-01

    The US program to dispose of weapons-grade Pu could involve the irradiation of mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel assemblies in commercial light water reactors. This will require licensing acceptance because of the modifications to the core safety characteristics. In particular, core neutronics will be significantly modified, thus making it necessary to validate the standard suites of neutronics codes for that particular application. Validation criteria are still unclear, but it seems reasonable to expect that the same level of accuracy will be expected for MOX as that which has been achieved for UO 2 . Commercial lattice physics codes are invariably claimed to be accurate for MOX analysis but often lack independent confirmation of their performance on a representative experimental database. Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has started implementing a public domain suite of codes to provide for a capability to perform independent assessments of MOX core analyses. The DRAGON lattice code was chosen, and fine group ENDF/B-VI.04 and JEF-2.2 libraries have been developed. The objective of this work is to validate the DRAGON algorithms with respect to continuous-energy Monte Carlo for a suite of realistic UO 2 -MOX benchmark cases, with the aim of establishing a reference DRAGON scheme with a demonstrated high level of accuracy and no computing resource constraints. Using this scheme as a reference, future work will be devoted to obtaining simpler and less costly schemes that preserve accuracy as much as possible

  20. The Guayas Estuary and sea level corrections to calculate flooding areas for climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreano, H. R.; Paredes, N.

    2011-12-01

    The Guayas estuary is the inner area of the Gulf of Guayaquil, it holds a water body of around 5000 km2 and the Puna island divides the water flow in two main streams : El Morro and Estero Salado Channel (length: 90 Km.) and Jambeli and Rio Guayas Channel (length: 125km.). The geometry of the estuarine system with the behavior of the tidal wave (semidiurnal) makes tidal amplitude higher at the head than at the mouth, whereas the wave crest at the head is delayed from one and a half to two hours from that at the mouth and sea level recorded by gages along the estuary are all different because of the wave propagation and mean sea level (msl) calculated for each gage show differences with that of La Libertad which is the base line for all altitudes on land (zero level). A leveling and calculations were made to correct such differences in a way that all gages (msl) records were linked to La Libertad and this in turn allowed a better estimates of flooding areas and draw them on topographic maps where zero level corresponds to the mean sea level at La Libertad. The procedure and mathematical formulation could be applied to any estuary or coastal area and it is a useful tool to calculate such areas especially when impacts are on people or capital goods and related to climate change scenarios.

  1. Bushland Reference ET Calculator with QA/QC capabilities and iPhone/iPad application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Accurate daily reference evapotranspiration (ET) values are needed to estimate crop water demand for irrigation management and hydrologic modeling purposes. The USDA-ARS Conservation and Production Research Laboratory at Bushland, Texas developed the Bushland Reference ET (BET) Calculator for calcul...

  2. Assessment of post closure radioactive safety for the Korean reference disposal system: development of scenarios and quantitative assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, C. H.; Hwang, Y. S.; Lee, Y. M.

    2005-01-01

    The total system performance assessment (TSPA) on the Korean reference disposal system has been performed for different types of scenarios. Firstly two reference scenarios, the natural discharge and well ones are developed assessed. The natural discharge scenario assumes that a radionuclide is released from a waste container with an average lifetime of 1,000 years by intruding groundwater to a biosphere through a bentonite buffer and a natural barrier composed of a fractured porous rock and a major water conducting feature (MWCF). The well scenario describes that a radionuclide passing through a buffer enters a fractured rock which is intersected with a drinking well. Two scenarios are named as R1 and R2 respectively. The third scenario is for the initial waste container failure case. A waste container is apt to have initial defects during manufacturing and transportation to a deposition hole. The probability function of the ratio of waste container failure is assumed based on the engineering sense. The rest of waste containers are assumed to have full function of isolation of hazardous nuclides during the lifetime. This initial container failure scenario (ICF) has two different variations: one with a lifetime of 1,000 years ana the other with 10,000 years. Two variations are assessed for two different biosphere, natural discharge and well. The forth one is to assess the impact of excavation disturbed zones. Deposition tunnels are excavated by tunnel boring machine (TBM) or controlled blast (CB). The disturbed zone in assumed to be 30 cm and 1 meter for TBN and CB respectively. Six cases are developed for the EDZ scenarios considering all possible combination of changes in permeability a fracture aperture, and a porosity of a fractured rock. The fifth scenario stipulates the change of long term climate (LTC). The ice age assumed to be prevailed again after a few tens of thousand years. The advent of the ice age alters groundwater composition, pathways, and most

  3. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the in-tank fuel fire/deflageration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, R.D. Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for In-Tank Fuel fire/Deflageration consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Tank Fuel Fire/Deflageration scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided

  4. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the in-tank fuel fire/deflagration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for In-Tank Fuel Fire/Deflageration consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Tank Fuel Fire/Deflageration scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  5. Seed production scenario in Maharashtra with special reference to mutant crop varieties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raut, R.S.

    2001-01-01

    Several mutant varieties of different crops have been developed by the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai during last two decades and released for cultivation for Maharashtra and other states of the country. The Maharashtra State Seed Corporation (MSSC) has undertaken the seed production of the mutant varieties released for the Maharashtra state. There has been a growing demand of some mutant varieties especially TAU-1 of black gram and TAG-24 of ground nut by the farmers of various states. The MSSC has been meeting the demand of the farmers of Maharashtra as well as of other states of the country for these varieties for last several years. The demand for TAU-1 in Maharashtra has reached the level of 27525 quintals of certified seed during the current year. The total seed production scenario of mutant varieties is indicative of their popularity. (author)

  6. No-reference image quality assessment for horizontal-path imaging scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rios, Carlos; Gladysz, Szymon

    2013-05-01

    There exist several image-enhancement algorithms and tasks associated with imaging through turbulence that depend on defining the quality of an image. Examples include: "lucky imaging", choosing the width of the inverse filter for image reconstruction, or stopping iterative deconvolution. We collected a number of image quality metrics found in the literature. Particularly interesting are the blind, "no-reference" metrics. We discuss ways of evaluating the usefulness of these metrics, even when a fully objective comparison is impossible because of the lack of a reference image. Metrics are tested on simulated and real data. Field data comes from experiments performed by the NATO SET 165 research group over a 7 km distance in Dayton, Ohio.

  7. Harmonising Reference Intervals for Three Calculated Parameters used in Clinical Chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, David; Koerbin, Gus; Potter, Julia M; Glasgow, Nicholas; West, Nic; Abhayaratna, Walter P; Cavanaugh, Juleen; Armbruster, David; Hickman, Peter E

    2016-08-01

    For more than a decade there has been a global effort to harmonise all phases of the testing process, with particular emphasis on the most frequently utilised measurands. In addition, it is recognised that calculated parameters derived from these measurands should also be a target for harmonisation. Using data from the Aussie Normals study we report reference intervals for three calculated parameters: serum osmolality, serum anion gap and albumin-adjusted serum calcium. The Aussie Normals study was an a priori study that analysed samples from 1856 healthy volunteers. The nine analytes used for the calculations in this study were measured on Abbott Architect analysers. The data demonstrated normal (Gaussian) distributions for the albumin-adjusted serum calcium, the anion gap (using potassium in the calculation) and the calculated serum osmolality (using both the Bhagat et al. and Smithline and Gardner formulae). To assess the suitability of these reference intervals for use as harmonised reference intervals, we reviewed data from the Royal College of Pathologists of Australasia/Australasian Association of Clinical Biochemists (RCPA/AACB) bias survey. We conclude that the reference intervals for the calculated serum osmolality (using the Smithline and Gardner formulae) may be suitable for use as a common reference interval. Although a common reference interval for albumin-adjusted serum calcium may be possible, further investigations (including a greater range of albumin concentrations) are needed. This is due to the bias between the Bromocresol Green (BCG) and Bromocresol Purple (BCP) methods at lower serum albumin concentrations. Problems with the measurement of Total CO 2 in the bias survey meant that we could not use the data for assessing the suitability of a common reference interval for the anion gap. Further study is required.

  8. Scenario Analysis In The Calculation Of Investment Efficiency–The Problem Of Formulating Assumptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dittmann Iwona

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article concerns the problem of formulating assumptions in scenario analysis for investments which consist of the renting out of an apartment. The article attempts to indicate the foundations for the formulation of assumptions on the basis of observed retrospective regularities. It includes theoretical considerations regarding scenario design, as well as the results of studies on the formulation, in the past, of quantities which determined or were likely to bring closer estimate the value of the individual explanatory variables for a chosen measure of investment profitability (MIRRFCFE. The dynamics of and correlation between the variables were studied. The research was based on quarterly data from local residential real estate markets in Poland (in the six largest cities in the years 2006 – 2014, as well as on data from the financial market.

  9. OSCAAR calculations for the Iput dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS theme 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Matsunaga, Takeshi

    2001-01-01

    This report presents the results obtained from the application of the accident consequence assessment code, called OSCAAR, developed in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute to the Iput dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2 organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The Iput Scenario deals with 137 Cs contamination of the catchment basin and agricultural area in the Bryansk Region of Russia, which was heavily contaminated after the Chernobyl accident. This exercise was used to test the chronic exposure pathway models in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainly with respect to each part of the assessment. The OSCAAR chronic exposure pathway models almost successfully reconstructed the whole 10-year time course of 137 Cs activity concentrations in most requested types of agricultural products and natural foodstuffs. Modeling of 137 Cs downward migration in soils is, however, still incomplete and more detail modeling of the changes of cesium bioavailability with time is needed for long term predictions of the contamination of food. (author)

  10. OSCAAR calculations for the Iput dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS theme 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Matsunaga, Takeshi [Department of Reactor Safety Research, Nuclear Safety Research Center, Tokai Research Establishment, Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute, Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2001-01-01

    This report presents the results obtained from the application of the accident consequence assessment code, called OSCAAR, developed in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute to the Iput dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2 organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The Iput Scenario deals with {sup 137}Cs contamination of the catchment basin and agricultural area in the Bryansk Region of Russia, which was heavily contaminated after the Chernobyl accident. This exercise was used to test the chronic exposure pathway models in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainly with respect to each part of the assessment. The OSCAAR chronic exposure pathway models almost successfully reconstructed the whole 10-year time course of {sup 137}Cs activity concentrations in most requested types of agricultural products and natural foodstuffs. Modeling of {sup 137}Cs downward migration in soils is, however, still incomplete and more detail modeling of the changes of cesium bioavailability with time is needed for long term predictions of the contamination of food. (author)

  11. Elaboration and qualification of a reference calculation routes for the absorbers in the PWR reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanc-Tranchant, P.

    1999-11-01

    The general field in which this work takes place is the field of the accuracy improvement of neutronic calculations, required to operate Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) with a better precision and a lower cost. More specifically, this thesis deals with the calculation of the absorber clusters used to control these reactors. The first aim of that work was to define and validate a reference calculation route of such an absorber cluster, based on the deterministic code Apollo 2. This calculation scheme was then to be checked against experimental data. This study of the complex situation of absorber clusters required several intermediate studies, of simpler problems, such as the study of fuel rods lattices and the study of single absorber rods (B 4 C, AIC, Hafnium) isolated in such lattices. Each one of these different studies led to a particular reference calculation route. All these calculation routes were developed against reference continuous energy Monte-Carlo calculations, carried out with the stochastic code TRIPOLI14. They were then checked against experimental data measured during french experimental programs, undertaken within the EOLE experimental reactor, at the Nuclear Research Center of Cadarache: the MISTRAL experiments for the study of isolated absorber rods and the EPICURE experiments for the study of absorber clusters. This work led to important improvements in the calculation of isolated absorbers and absorber clusters. The reactivity worth of these clusters in particular, can now be obtained with a great accuracy: the discrepancy observed between the calculated and the experimental values is less than 2.5 %, and then slightly lower than the experimental uncertainty. (author)

  12. Development and qualification of reference calculation schemes for absorbers in pressured water reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanc-Tranchant, P.

    2001-01-01

    The general field in which this work takes place is the field of the accuracy improvement of neutronic calculations, required to operate Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) with a better precision and a lower cost. More specifically, this thesis deals with the calculation of the absorber clusters used to control these reactors. The first aim of that work was to define and validate a reference calculation route of such an absorber cluster, based on the deterministic code APOLLO2. This calculation scheme was then to be checked against experimental data. This study of the complex situation of absorber clusters required several intermediate studies, of simpler problems, such as the study of fuel rods lattices and the study of single absorber rods (B4C, AIC, Hafnium) isolated in such lattices. Each one of these different studies led to a particular reference calculation route. All these calculation routes were developed against reference continuous energy Monte-Carlo calculations, carried out with the stochastic code TRIPOLI4. They were then checked against experimental data measured during French experimental programs, undertaken within the EOLE experimental reactor, at the Nuclear Research Center of Cadarache: the MISTRAL experiments for the study of isolated absorber rods and the EPICURE experiments for the study of absorber clusters. This work led to important improvements in the calculation of isolated absorbers and absorber clusters. The reactivity worth of these clusters in particular, can now be obtained with a great accuracy: the discrepancy observed between the calculated and the experimental values is less than 2.5 %, and then slightly lower than the experimental uncertainty. (author)

  13. Reference Models of Information Systems Constructed with the use of Technologies of Cloud Calculations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darya Sergeevna Simonenkova

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the research is analysis of various models of the information system constructed with the use of technologies of cloud calculations. Analysis of models is required for constructing a new reference model which will be used for develop a security threats model.

  14. Basis for calculating boron dilution scenarios in PWR by 3D neutron kinetics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pla, P., E-mail: patricia_pla@hotmail.com [Univ. of Pisa, San Piero a Grado Nuclear Research Group (GRNSPG), Pisa (Italy); Tech. Univ. of Catalonia, Barcelona (Spain); Parisi, C., E-mail: c.parisi@ing.unipi.it [Univ. of Pisa, San Piero a Grado Nuclear Research Group (GRNSPG), Pisa (Italy); Galetti, R., E-mail: regina@cnen.gov.br [National Commission for Nuclear Energy (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); D' Auria, F.; Galassi, G., E-mail: f.dauria@ing.unipi.it, E-mail: g.galassi@ing.unipi.it [Univ. of Pisa, San Piero a Grado Nuclear Research Group (GRNSPG), Pisa (Italy); Reventos, F., E-mail: francesc.reventos@upc.edu [Tech. Univ. of Catalonia, Barcelona (Spain)

    2011-07-01

    The origin of the performed study was the analysis of 20 cm{sup 2} small break LOCA in the lower plenum in a four-loop PWR nuclear reactor by Relap5 code stand-alone (0DNK) in which boron dilution was observed in more than one loop seal. In order to have a more precise result of the boron dilution NK feedback effect, the original nodalization was refined axially in the core area to couple with PARCS v.2.7 code (3DNK). The neutron macroscopic XSec database was generated by the lattice transport code HELIOS. Before using the new model to predict boron dilution transients, a necessary activity is the qualification of the model (the boron feedback calculated by the Neutronic Cross Sections) against boron changes, so a group of sensitivity calculations injecting more or less borated water in the cold leg were performed either with Relap5 code stand-alone (0DNK) and with Relap5 coupled with PARCS v.2.7 (3DNK) code in order to analyze the reactor power response to the boron injection and the differences using a 0DNK or a coupled 3DNK nodalization. To complete the study a benchmark calculation was performed considering a 20 cm{sup 2} break in the lower plenum, in which the reactor trip by control rods has been disabled and boron injection was simulated in the cold leg. This calculation utilized the Relap5 code stand-alone (0DNK) and the Relap5 coupled with PARCS v.2.7 (3DNK) code, in order to see the differences using a 0DNK or a coupled 3DNK model. Non negligible differences have been found in all cases in the comparison of 0DNK and coupled 3DNK results analyzed, in relation to the core power. These results challenge the evaluation of the uncertainties in case of coupled thermalhydraulic-3DNK calculations. A comprehensive evaluation of the relevant uncertainties of the 3D NK TH coupled calculations is needed. (author)

  15. Basis for calculating boron dilution scenarios in PWR by 3D neutron kinetics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pla, P.; Parisi, C.; Galetti, R.; D'Auria, F.; Galassi, G.; Reventos, F.

    2011-01-01

    The origin of the performed study was the analysis of 20 cm 2 small break LOCA in the lower plenum in a four-loop PWR nuclear reactor by Relap5 code stand-alone (0DNK) in which boron dilution was observed in more than one loop seal. In order to have a more precise result of the boron dilution NK feedback effect, the original nodalization was refined axially in the core area to couple with PARCS v.2.7 code (3DNK). The neutron macroscopic XSec database was generated by the lattice transport code HELIOS. Before using the new model to predict boron dilution transients, a necessary activity is the qualification of the model (the boron feedback calculated by the Neutronic Cross Sections) against boron changes, so a group of sensitivity calculations injecting more or less borated water in the cold leg were performed either with Relap5 code stand-alone (0DNK) and with Relap5 coupled with PARCS v.2.7 (3DNK) code in order to analyze the reactor power response to the boron injection and the differences using a 0DNK or a coupled 3DNK nodalization. To complete the study a benchmark calculation was performed considering a 20 cm 2 break in the lower plenum, in which the reactor trip by control rods has been disabled and boron injection was simulated in the cold leg. This calculation utilized the Relap5 code stand-alone (0DNK) and the Relap5 coupled with PARCS v.2.7 (3DNK) code, in order to see the differences using a 0DNK or a coupled 3DNK model. Non negligible differences have been found in all cases in the comparison of 0DNK and coupled 3DNK results analyzed, in relation to the core power. These results challenge the evaluation of the uncertainties in case of coupled thermalhydraulic-3DNK calculations. A comprehensive evaluation of the relevant uncertainties of the 3D NK TH coupled calculations is needed. (author)

  16. Reference calculations on critical assemblies with Apollo2 code working with a fine multigroup mesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aggery, A.

    1999-12-01

    The objective of this thesis is to add to the multigroup transport code APOLLO2 the capability to perform deterministic reference calculations, for any type of reactor, using a very fine energy mesh of several thousand groups. This new reference tool allows us to validate the self-shielding model used in industrial applications, to perform depletion calculations, differential effects calculations, critical buckling calculations or to evaluate precisely data required by the self shielding model. At its origin, APOLLO2 was designed to perform routine calculations with energy meshes around one hundred groups. That is why, in the current format of cross sections libraries, almost each value of the multigroup energy transfer matrix is stored. As this format is not convenient for a high number of groups (concerning memory size), we had to search out a new format for removal matrices and consequently to modify the code. In the new format we found, only some values of removal matrices are kept (these values depend on a reconstruction precision choice), the other ones being reconstructed by a linear interpolation, what reduces the size of these matrices. Then we had to show that APOLLO2 working with a fine multigroup mesh had the capability to perform reference calculations on any assembly geometry. For that, we successfully carried out the validation with several calculations for which we compared APOLLO2 results (obtained with the universal mesh of 11276 groups) to results obtained with Monte Carlo codes (MCNP, TRIPOLI4). Physical analysis led with this new tool have been very fruitful and show a great potential for such an R and D tool. (author)

  17. Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vries, H.J.M. de; Olivier, J.G.J.; Wijngaart, R.A. van den; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Toet, A.M.C.

    1994-01-01

    In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the 'Energy-Industry System' is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (end-use approach). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the 'Energy-Industry System' models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970-1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation. 59 refs., 17 figs., 21 tabs

  18. Criticality reference benchmark calculations for burnup credit using spent fuel isotopics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowman, S.M.

    1991-04-01

    To date, criticality analyses performed in support of the certification of spent fuel casks in the United States do not take credit for the reactivity reduction that results from burnup. By taking credit for the fuel burnup, commonly referred to as ''burnup credit,'' the fuel loading capacity of these casks can be increased. One of the difficulties in implementing burnup credit in criticality analyses is that there have been no critical experiments performed with spent fuel which can be used for computer code validation. In lieu of that, a reference problem set of fresh fuel critical experiments which model various conditions typical of light water reactor (LWR) transportation and storage casks has been identified and used in the validation of SCALE-4. This report documents the use of this same problem set to perform spent fuel criticality benchmark calculations by replacing the actual fresh fuel isotopics from the experiments with six different sets of calculated spent fuel isotopics. The SCALE-4 modules SAS2H and CSAS4 were used to perform the analyses. These calculations do not model actual critical experiments. The calculated k-effectives are not supposed to equal unity and will vary depending on the initial enrichment and burnup of the calculated spent fuel isotopics. 12 refs., 11 tabs

  19. Calculation of climatic reference values and its use for automatic outlier detection in meteorological datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Téllez

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The climatic reference values for monthly and annual average air temperature and total precipitation in Catalonia – northeast of Spain – are calculated using a combination of statistical methods and geostatistical techniques of interpolation. In order to estimate the uncertainty of the method, the initial dataset is split into two parts that are, respectively, used for estimation and validation. The resulting maps are then used in the automatic outlier detection in meteorological datasets.

  20. Comparison of lysimeter based and calculated ASCE reference evapotranspiration in a subhumid climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolz, Reinhard; Cepuder, Peter; Eitzinger, Josef

    2016-04-01

    The standardized form of the well-known FAO Penman-Monteith equation, published by the Environmental and Water Resources Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE-EWRI), is recommended as a standard procedure for calculating reference evapotranspiration (ET ref) and subsequently plant water requirements. Applied and validated under different climatic conditions it generally achieved good results compared to other methods. However, several studies documented deviations between measured and calculated reference evapotranspiration depending on environmental and weather conditions. Therefore, it seems generally advisable to evaluate the model under local environmental conditions. In this study, reference evapotranspiration was determined at a subhumid site in northeastern Austria from 2005 to 2010 using a large weighing lysimeter (ET lys). The measured data were compared with ET ref calculations. Daily values differed slightly during a year, at which ET ref was generally overestimated at small values, whereas it was rather underestimated when ET was large, which is supported also by other studies. In our case, advection of sensible heat proved to have an impact, but it could not explain the differences exclusively. Obviously, there were also other influences, such as seasonal varying surface resistance or albedo. Generally, the ASCE-EWRI equation for daily time steps performed best at average weather conditions. The outcomes should help to correctly interpret ET ref data in the region and in similar environments and improve knowledge on the dynamics of influencing factors causing deviations.

  1. Reference voltage calculation method based on zero-sequence component optimisation for a regional compensation DVR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, Le; Cao, Wang; Jintao, Yang; Yinge, Wang

    2018-04-01

    This paper describes the design of a dynamic voltage restorer (DVR) that can simultaneously protect several sensitive loads from voltage sags in a region of an MV distribution network. A novel reference voltage calculation method based on zero-sequence voltage optimisation is proposed for this DVR to optimise cost-effectiveness in compensation of voltage sags with different characteristics in an ungrounded neutral system. Based on a detailed analysis of the characteristics of voltage sags caused by different types of faults and the effect of the wiring mode of the transformer on these characteristics, the optimisation target of the reference voltage calculation is presented with several constraints. The reference voltages under all types of voltage sags are calculated by optimising the zero-sequence component, which can reduce the degree of swell in the phase-to-ground voltage after compensation to the maximum extent and can improve the symmetry degree of the output voltages of the DVR, thereby effectively increasing the compensation ability. The validity and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by simulation and experimental results.

  2. A spatial method to calculate small-scale fisheries effort in data poor scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Andrew Frederick; Moreno-Báez, Marcia; Giron-Nava, Alfredo; Corominas, Julia; Erisman, Brad; Ezcurra, Exequiel; Aburto-Oropeza, Octavio

    2017-01-01

    To gauge the collateral impacts of fishing we must know where fishing boats operate and how much they fish. Although small-scale fisheries land approximately the same amount of fish for human consumption as industrial fleets globally, methods of estimating their fishing effort are comparatively poor. We present an accessible, spatial method of calculating the effort of small-scale fisheries based on two simple measures that are available, or at least easily estimated, in even the most data-poor fisheries: the number of boats and the local coastal human population. We illustrate the method using a small-scale fisheries case study from the Gulf of California, Mexico, and show that our measure of Predicted Fishing Effort (PFE), measured as the number of boats operating in a given area per day adjusted by the number of people in local coastal populations, can accurately predict fisheries landings in the Gulf. Comparing our values of PFE to commercial fishery landings throughout the Gulf also indicates that the current number of small-scale fishing boats in the Gulf is approximately double what is required to land theoretical maximum fish biomass. Our method is fishery-type independent and can be used to quantitatively evaluate the efficacy of growth in small-scale fisheries. This new method provides an important first step towards estimating the fishing effort of small-scale fleets globally.

  3. Nuclear performance calculations for the ELMO Bumpy Torus Reactor (EBTR) reference design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santoro, R.T.; Barnes, J.M.

    1977-12-01

    The nuclear performance of the ELMO Bumpy Torus Reactor reference design has been calculated using the one-dimensional discrete ordinates code ANISN and the latest available ENDF/B-IV transport cross-section data and nuclear response functions. The calculated results include estimates of the spatial and integral heating rate with emphasis on the recovery of fusion neutron energy in the blanket assembly and minimization of the energy deposition rates in the cryogenic magnet coil assemblies. The tritium breeding ratio in the natural lithium-laden blanket was calculated to be 1.29 tritium nuclei per incident neutron. The radiation damage in the reactor structural material and in the magnet assembly is also given

  4. Annotated references on shielding experiment and calculation of high energy particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirayama, H.; Ban, S.; Nakamura, T.

    1990-12-01

    The literature on shielding experiment and calculation of high energy particles above 20 MeV has been surveyed. The survey covers thirteen journals, from 1965 up to 1989. For each paper, applicable information is listed on type and energy of the projectile, the accelerator used, composition and thickness of the target and shielding materials, shielding geometry, the experimental and calculational methods, and the quantities obtained. The references on shielding experiment and on shielding calculation are accessed through two indices which list the projectile-target and shielding material combination, shielding geometry and the projectile energy range. The literature on neutron, photon and hadron production from thick target bombarded by charged particles has been surveyed mainly from 1984 as a complement of the previous work. (author)

  5. Identifying space for offshore wind energy in the North Sea. Consequences of scenario calculations for interactions with other marine uses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jongbloed, R.H.; Wal, J.T. van der; Lindeboom, H.J.

    2014-01-01

    The increasing demand for renewable energy drives the development of offshore wind energy (OWE) leading to competing claims with other human and nature related uses of the North Sea. This paper investigates possibilities to identify space for new OWE while minimising effects on other uses. An inventory is made of the major uses in the Central and Southern North Sea, including the expected development towards 2030. The spatial distribution of non-wind uses is determined as well as the possibilities for differentiation based on density, economic value or nature value and co-existence. These possibilities are translated into calculation rules quantifying the relative importance. These calculation rules have been incorporated in a Decision Support System (DSS) to analyse how the priority of OWE development could impact non-wind uses. In a low OWE priority scenario consequences for other use was found to be very limited, with fisheries and wildlife affected most. In a high OWE priority scenario a considerable amount of OWE may be developed with substantial claims on sand extraction and military use areas and a shift towards higher value categories for shipping and fisheries. Relocation and co-existence of uses are important means to reduce the impact of increased OWE development. - Highlights: • A new method for minimising effects of new Offshore Wind Energy on other uses. • Calculation rules are based on density, economic or nature values of major marine activities. • Most activities are concentrated near the coast and expected to increase. • Increasing priority for OWE claims more and higher value area from other uses. • Relocation and co-use of areas reduce negative consequences

  6. Impact on Dose Coefficients Calculated with ICRP Adult Mesh-type Reference Computational Phantoms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeom, Yeon Soo; Nguyen, Thang Tat; Choi, Chan Soo; Lee, Han Jin; Han, Hae Gin; Han, Min Cheol; Shin, Bang Ho; Kim, Chan Hyeong [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-04-15

    In 2016, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) formulated a new Task Group (TG) (i.e., TG 103) within Committee 2. The ultimate aim of the TG 103 is to develop the mesh-type reference computational phantoms (MRCPs) that can address dosimetric limitations of the currently used voxel-type reference computational phantoms (VRCPs) due to their limited voxel resolutions. The objective of the present study is to investigate dosimetric impact of the adult MRCPs by comparing dose coefficients (DCs) calculated with the MRCPs for some external and internal exposure cases and the reference DCs in ICRP Publications 116 and 133 that were produced with the adult VRCPs. In the present study, the DCs calculated with the adult MRCPs for some exposure cases were compared with the values in ICRP Publications 116 and 133. This comparison shows that in general the MRCPs provide very similar DCs for uncharged particles, but for charged particles provide significantly different DCs due to the improvement of the MRCPs.

  7. Calculation of local skin doses with ICRP adult mesh-type reference computational phantoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeom, Yeon Soo; Han, Haegin; Choi, Chansoo; Nguyen, Thang Tat; Lee, Hanjin; Shin, Bangho; Kim, Chan Hyeong; Han, Min Cheol

    2018-01-01

    Recently, Task Group 103 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) developed new mesh-type reference computational phantoms (MRCPs) for adult males and females in order to address the limitations of the current voxel-type reference phantoms described in ICRP Publication 110 due to their limited voxel resolutions and the nature of the voxel geometry. One of the substantial advantages of the MRCPs over the ICRP-110 reference phantoms is the inclusion of a 50-μm-thick radiosensitive skin basal-cell layer; however, a methodology for calculating the local skin dose (LSD), i.e., the maximum dose to the basal layer averaged over a 1-cm2 area, has yet to be developed. In the present study, a dedicated program for the LSD calculation with the MRCPs was developed based on the mean shift algorithm and the Geant4 Monte Carlo code. The developed program was used to calculate local skin dose coefficients (LSDCs) for electrons and alpha particles, which were then compared with the values given in ICRP Publication 116 that were produced with a simple tissue-equivalent cube model. The results of the present study show that the LSDCs of the MRCPs are generally in good agreement with the ICRP-116 values for alpha particles, but for electrons, significant differences are found at energies higher than 0.15 MeV. The LSDCs of the MRCPs are greater than the ICRP-116 values by as much as 2.7 times at 10 MeV, which is due mainly to the different curvature between realistic MRCPs ( i.e., curved) and the simple cube model ( i.e., flat).

  8. Validation d'un nouveau calcul de reference en evolution pour les reacteurs thermiques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canbakan, Axel

    Resonance self-shielding calculations are an essential component of a deterministic lattice code calculation. Even if their aim is to correct the cross sections deviation, they introduce a non negligible error in evaluated parameters such as the flux. Until now, French studies for light water reactors are based on effective reaction rates obtained using an equivalence in dilution technique. With the increase of computing capacities, this method starts to show its limits in precision and can be replaced by a subgroup method. Originally used for fast neutron reactor calculations, the subgroup method has many advantages such as using an exact slowing down equation. The aim of this thesis is to suggest a validation as precise as possible without burnup, and then with an isotopic depletion study for the subgroup method. In the end, users interested in implementing a subgroup method in their scheme for Pressurized Water Reactors can rely on this thesis to justify their modelization choices. Moreover, other parameters are validated to suggest a new reference scheme for fast execution and precise results. These new techniques are implemented in the French lattice scheme SHEM-MOC, composed of a Method Of Characteristics flux calculation and a SHEM-like 281-energy group mesh. First, the libraries processed by the CEA are compared. Then, this thesis suggests the most suitable energetic discretization for a subgroup method. Finally, other techniques such as the representation of the anisotropy of the scattering sources and the spatial representation of the source in the MOC calculation are studied. A DRAGON5 scheme is also validated as it shows interesting elements: the DRAGON5 subgroup method is run with a 295-eenergy group mesh (compared to 361 groups for APOLLO2). There are two reasons to use this code. The first involves offering a new reference lattice scheme for Pressurized Water Reactors to DRAGON5 users. The second is to study parameters that are not available in

  9. Temperature-based modeling of reference evapotranspiration using several artificial intelligence models: application of different modeling scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanikhani, Hadi; Kisi, Ozgur; Maroufpoor, Eisa; Yaseen, Zaher Mundher

    2018-02-01

    The establishment of an accurate computational model for predicting reference evapotranspiration (ET0) process is highly essential for several agricultural and hydrological applications, especially for the rural water resource systems, water use allocations, utilization and demand assessments, and the management of irrigation systems. In this research, six artificial intelligence (AI) models were investigated for modeling ET0 using a small number of climatic data generated from the minimum and maximum temperatures of the air and extraterrestrial radiation. The investigated models were multilayer perceptron (MLP), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), radial basis neural networks (RBNN), integrated adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems with grid partitioning and subtractive clustering (ANFIS-GP and ANFIS-SC), and gene expression programming (GEP). The implemented monthly time scale data set was collected at the Antalya and Isparta stations which are located in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey. The Hargreaves-Samani (HS) equation and its calibrated version (CHS) were used to perform a verification analysis of the established AI models. The accuracy of validation was focused on multiple quantitative metrics, including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R 2), coefficient of residual mass (CRM), and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS). The results of the conducted models were highly practical and reliable for the investigated case studies. At the Antalya station, the performance of the GEP and GRNN models was better than the other investigated models, while the performance of the RBNN and ANFIS-SC models was best compared to the other models at the Isparta station. Except for the MLP model, all the other investigated models presented a better performance accuracy compared to the HS and CHS empirical models when applied in a cross-station scenario. A cross-station scenario examination implies the

  10. Resampling Approach for Determination of the Method for Reference Interval Calculation in Clinical Laboratory Practice▿

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlov, Igor Y.; Wilson, Andrew R.; Delgado, Julio C.

    2010-01-01

    Reference intervals (RI) play a key role in clinical interpretation of laboratory test results. Numerous articles are devoted to analyzing and discussing various methods of RI determination. The two most widely used approaches are the parametric method, which assumes data normality, and a nonparametric, rank-based procedure. The decision about which method to use is usually made arbitrarily. The goal of this study was to demonstrate that using a resampling approach for the comparison of RI determination techniques could help researchers select the right procedure. Three methods of RI calculation—parametric, transformed parametric, and quantile-based bootstrapping—were applied to multiple random samples drawn from 81 values of complement factor B observations and from a computer-simulated normally distributed population. It was shown that differences in RI between legitimate methods could be up to 20% and even more. The transformed parametric method was found to be the best method for the calculation of RI of non-normally distributed factor B estimations, producing an unbiased RI and the lowest confidence limits and interquartile ranges. For a simulated Gaussian population, parametric calculations, as expected, were the best; quantile-based bootstrapping produced biased results at low sample sizes, and the transformed parametric method generated heavily biased RI. The resampling approach could help compare different RI calculation methods. An algorithm showing a resampling procedure for choosing the appropriate method for RI calculations is included. PMID:20554803

  11. New reference charts for testicular volume in Dutch children and adolescents allow the calculation of standard deviation scores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joustra, S.D.; Plas, E.M. van der; Goede, J.; Oostdijk, W.; Delemarre-van de Waal, H.A.; Hack, W.W.M.; Buuren, S. van; Wit, J.M.

    2015-01-01

    Aim Accurate calculations of testicular volume standard deviation (SD) scores are not currently available. We constructed LMS-smoothed age-reference charts for testicular volume in healthy boys. Methods The LMS method was used to calculate reference data, based on testicular volumes from

  12. Assessing factors that influence deviations between measured and calculated reference evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodny, Marek; Nolz, Reinhard

    2017-04-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is a fundamental component of the hydrological cycle, but challenging to be quantified. Lysimeter facilities, for example, can be installed and operated to determine ET, but they are costly and represent only point measurements. Therefore, lysimeter data are traditionally used to develop, calibrate, and validate models that allow calculating reference evapotranspiration (ET0) based on meteorological data, which can be measured more easily. The standardized form of the well-known FAO Penman-Monteith equation (ASCE-EWRI) is recommended as a standard procedure for estimating ET0 and subsequently plant water requirements. Applied and validated under different climatic conditions, the Penman-Monteith equation is generally known to deliver proper results. On the other hand, several studies documented deviations between measured and calculated ET0 depending on environmental conditions. Potential reasons are, for example, differing or varying surface characteristics of the lysimeter and the location where the weather instruments are placed. Advection of sensible heat (transport of dry and hot air from surrounding areas) might be another reason for deviating ET-values. However, elaborating causal processes is complex and requires comprehensive data of high quality and specific analysis techniques. In order to assess influencing factors, we correlated differences between measured and calculated ET0 with pre-selected meteorological parameters and related system parameters. Basic data were hourly ET0-values from a weighing lysimeter (ET0_lys) with a surface area of 2.85 m2 (reference crop: frequently irrigated grass), weather data (air and soil temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, wind velocity, and solar radiation), and soil water content in different depths. ET0_ref was calculated in hourly time steps according to the standardized procedure after ASCE-EWRI (2005). Deviations between both datasets were calculated as ET0_lys-ET0_ref and

  13. In-Stream Sediment Dynamics for predicted environmental concentration calculations of plant protection products in the FOCUSSW Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strehmel, Alexander; Erzgräber, Beate; Gottesbüren, Bernhard

    2016-04-01

    The exposure assessment for the EU registration procedure of plant protection products (PPP), which is based on the 'Forum for the co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their use' (FOCUS), currently considers only periods of 12-16 months for the exposure assessment in surface water bodies. However, in a recent scientific opinion of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) it is argued that in a multi-year exposure assessment, the accumulation of PPP substances in river sediment may be a relevant process. Therefore, the EFSA proposed to introduce a sediment accumulation factor in order to account for enrichment of PPP substances over several years in the sediment. The calculation of this accumulation factor, however, would consider degradation in sediment as the only dissipation path, and does not take into account riverine sediment dynamics. In order to assess the influence of deposition and the possible extent of substance accumulation in the sediment phase, the hydraulic model HEC-RAS was employed for an assessment of in-stream sediment dynamics of the FOCUS stream scenarios. The model was parameterized according to the stream characteristics of the FOCUS scenarios and was run over a period of 20 years. The results show that with the distribution of grain sizes and the ranges of flow velocity in the FOCUS streams the main sediment process in the streams is transport. First modeling results suggest that about 80% of the eroded sediment mass from the adjacent field are transported to the downstream end of the stream and out of the system, while only about 20% are deposited in the river bed. At the same time, only about 30% of in-stream sediment mass stems from the adjacent field and is associated with PPP substance, while the remaining sediment consists of the substance-free base sediment concentration regarded in the scenarios. With this, the hydraulic modelling approach is able to support the development of a meaningful sediment accumulation factor by

  14. BUSCA-JUN91. Reference manual for the calculation of radionuclide scrubbing in water pools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsdale, S.A.; Friederichs, H.G.

    1995-06-01

    BUSCA models the decontamination of a bubble as it rises through a water pool. The bubble may contain a mixture of non-condensable gases, steam, iodine vapor and aerosol particles. The bubble thermal-hydraulics are modelled as well as the removal of soluble vapour and aerosol contaminants. The code was originally developed at SRD (part of the UK Atomic Energy Authority) during the mid 1980's. A description of an early version of the code was presented in Reference. Since then, the code has been further enhanced by collaboration within the European Pool Scrubbing Group and additional mechanisms included in its calculations. In particular, PSI (Paul Scherrer Institute, Wuerenlingen) has converted the original FACSIMILE code into FORTRAN and added different bubble initial volume, geometry and bubble rise speed options, UPM (Universidad Politecnica de Madrid) has added the bubble breakup modelling and SRD has added the cluster and plume features. This report describes the BUSCA code version JUN91 which treats the bubble hydrodynamics and removal of aerosol particles and soluble gas in an attempt to calculate the decontamination factor (mass in/mass out), including its input and output requirements. It must be stressed that the development of BUSCA is an on-going project. Currently SRD and PSI have added additional models in their own versions. (orig.)

  15. Improvements of MCOR: A Monte Carlo depletion code system for fuel assembly reference calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tippayakul, C.; Ivanov, K. [Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park (United States); Misu, S. [AREVA NP GmbH, An AREVA and SIEMENS Company, Erlangen (Germany)

    2006-07-01

    This paper presents the improvements of MCOR, a Monte Carlo depletion code system for fuel assembly reference calculations. The improvements of MCOR were initiated by the cooperation between the Penn State Univ. and AREVA NP to enhance the original Penn State Univ. MCOR version in order to be used as a new Monte Carlo depletion analysis tool. Essentially, a new depletion module using KORIGEN is utilized to replace the existing ORIGEN-S depletion module in MCOR. Furthermore, the online burnup cross section generation by the Monte Carlo calculation is implemented in the improved version instead of using the burnup cross section library pre-generated by a transport code. Other code features have also been added to make the new MCOR version easier to use. This paper, in addition, presents the result comparisons of the original and the improved MCOR versions against CASMO-4 and OCTOPUS. It was observed in the comparisons that there were quite significant improvements of the results in terms of k{sub inf}, fission rate distributions and isotopic contents. (authors)

  16. Modeling of radionuclide transport through rock formations and the resulting radiation exposure of reference persons. Calculations using Asse II parameters; Modellierung des Transports von Radionukliden durch Gesteinsschichten und der resultierenden Strahlenexposition von Referenzpersonen. Berechnungen mit Parametern der Asse II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kueppers, Christian; Ustohalova, Veronika; Steinhoff, Mathias

    2012-05-21

    The long-term release of radioactivity into the ground water path cannot be excluded for the radioactive waste repository Asse II. The possible radiological consequences were analyzed using a radio-ecological scenario developed by GRS. A second scenario was developed considering the solubility of radionuclides in salt saturated solutions and retarding/retention effects during the radionuclide transport through the cap rock layers. The modeling of possible radiation exposure was based on the lifestyle habits of reference persons. In Germany the calculation procedure for the prediction of radionuclide release from final repositories is not defined by national standards, the used procedures are based on analogue methods from other radiation protection calculations.

  17. Calculating a Continuous Metabolic Syndrome Score Using Nationally Representative Reference Values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guseman, Emily Hill; Eisenmann, Joey C; Laurson, Kelly R; Cook, Stephen R; Stratbucker, William

    2018-02-26

    The prevalence of metabolic syndrome in youth varies on the basis of the classification system used, prompting implementation of continuous scores; however, the use of these scores is limited to the sample from which they were derived. We sought to describe the derivation of the continuous metabolic syndrome score using nationally representative reference values in a sample of obese adolescents and a national sample obtained from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011-2012. Clinical data were collected from 50 adolescents seeking obesity treatment at a stage 3 weight management center. A second analysis relied on data from adolescents included in NHANES 2011-2012, performed for illustrative purposes. The continuous metabolic syndrome score was calculated by regressing individual values onto nationally representative age- and sex-specific standards (NHANES III). Resultant z scores were summed to create a total score. The final sample included 42 obese adolescents (15 male and 35 female subjects; mean age, 14.8 ± 1.9 years) and an additional 445 participants from NHANES 2011-2012. Among the clinical sample, the mean continuous metabolic syndrome score was 4.16 ± 4.30, while the NHANES sample mean was quite a bit lower, at -0.24 ± 2.8. We provide a method to calculate the continuous metabolic syndrome by comparing individual risk factor values to age- and sex-specific percentiles from a nationally representative sample. Copyright © 2018 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Thermal radiation transfer calculations in combustion fields using the SLW model coupled with a modified reference approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darbandi, Masoud; Abrar, Bagher

    2018-01-01

    The spectral-line weighted-sum-of-gray-gases (SLW) model is considered as a modern global model, which can be used in predicting the thermal radiation heat transfer within the combustion fields. The past SLW model users have mostly employed the reference approach to calculate the local values of gray gases' absorption coefficient. This classical reference approach assumes that the absorption spectra of gases at different thermodynamic conditions are scalable with the absorption spectrum of gas at a reference thermodynamic state in the domain. However, this assumption cannot be reasonable in combustion fields, where the gas temperature is very different from the reference temperature. Consequently, the results of SLW model incorporated with the classical reference approach, say the classical SLW method, are highly sensitive to the reference temperature magnitude in non-isothermal combustion fields. To lessen this sensitivity, the current work combines the SLW model with a modified reference approach, which is a particular one among the eight possible reference approach forms reported recently by Solovjov, et al. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jqsrt.2017.01.034, 2017]. The combination is called "modified SLW method". This work shows that the modified reference approach can provide more accurate total emissivity calculation than the classical reference approach if it is coupled with the SLW method. This would be particularly helpful for more accurate calculation of radiation transfer in highly non-isothermal combustion fields. To approve this, we use both the classical and modified SLW methods and calculate the radiation transfer in such fields. It is shown that the modified SLW method can almost eliminate the sensitivity of achieved results to the chosen reference temperature in treating highly non-isothermal combustion fields.

  19. The reference energy scenario of the DGEMP for 2030,there's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip; Le scenario energetique de reference de la DGEMP pour 2030, ou il y a loin de la coupe aux levres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Nifenecker, H

    2008-05-15

    The authors discuss the energy reference scenario for 2030, proposed by the DGEMP. This scenario is published every 4 years. It represents the french energy situation in 2030, if no new energy policy was decided, in particularly no new measure from the Grenelle of the environment. The scenario supposes also no energy crisis in the fossil fuels supply and the fuels prices. In this topic, the objective of a contribution of 20% of renewable energies in the final energy consumption, seems possible. (A.L.B.)

  20. A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almahayni, T

    2014-12-01

    The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper

  1. Transport Calculations for the reference configuration under neutral bean injection in TJ-II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guasp, J.; Castejon, F.; Liniers, M.

    1999-01-01

    Transport calculations for the Reference Configuration under Neutral Beam Injection in TJ-II are discussed. For all these analysis the Transport Code PROCTR has been used but, in reason of the complex geometry of TJ-II, some modifications to the code have been needed, not only for the absorption, losses and deposition radial profile evaluations, but also for the treatment of the transition between ECRH and NBI or the fit of Transport Coefficients to the different Scaling Laws. The attained centralβ values for high density ( central value around 11 x 10''13 cm''3), in steady, range between a minimum of 1.9% for the GRB law up to 3.6% or 4.2% for those laws that show an explicit dependence with the rotational transform (ISS and LGS), with an intermediate value of 2.8% for the LHD case. Global energy confinement times range between 3.9 and 8.8 ms for the two extreme cases and 5.6 ms for LHD. As well ions as electrons are clearly in the plateau regime, in contrast to the ECRH phase where the electrons are well inside the 1/ν regime, dominated by helical ripple effects. The effect of impurities is to decrease slightly the absorption and the attainable β levels, but only for Zeff values higher than 4 this degradation becomes important. For the stationary state the density remains always below the semiempirical limit, independently of the Zeff value. Even along the first stages of injection, where absorption can be rather low, the limit is not reached, at least for Zeff < 4, so that radioactive collapse along this critical phase should not to be expected. (Author) 14 refs

  2. Short-term impacts of air pollutants in Switzerland: Preliminary scenario calculations for selected Swiss energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S; Keller, J [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    In the frame of the comprehensive assessment of Swiss energy systems, air quality simulations were performed by using a 3-dimensional photo-chemical dispersion model. The objective is to investigate the impacts of pollutants in Switzerland for future options of Swiss energy systems. Four scenarios were investigated: Base Case: simulations with the projected emissions for the year 2030, Scenario 1) all nuclear power plants were replaced by oil-driven combined cycle plants (CCP), Scenarios 2 to 4) traffic emissions were reduced in whole Switzerland as well as in the cities and on the highways separately. Changes in the pollutant concentrations and depositions, and the possible short-term impacts are discussed on the basis of exceedences of critical levels for plants and limits given to protect the public health. (author) 2 figs., 7 refs.

  3. Development and qualification of reference calculation schemes for absorbers in pressured water reactor; Elaboration et qualification de schemas de calcul de reference pour les absorbants dans les reacteurs a eau pressurisee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanc-Tranchant, P

    2001-07-01

    The general field in which this work takes place is the field of the accuracy improvement of neutronic calculations, required to operate Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) with a better precision and a lower cost. More specifically, this thesis deals with the calculation of the absorber clusters used to control these reactors. The first aim of that work was to define and validate a reference calculation route of such an absorber cluster, based on the deterministic code APOLLO2. This calculation scheme was then to be checked against experimental data. This study of the complex situation of absorber clusters required several intermediate studies, of simpler problems, such as the study of fuel rods lattices and the study of single absorber rods (B4C, AIC, Hafnium) isolated in such lattices. Each one of these different studies led to a particular reference calculation route. All these calculation routes were developed against reference continuous energy Monte-Carlo calculations, carried out with the stochastic code TRIPOLI4. They were then checked against experimental data measured during French experimental programs, undertaken within the EOLE experimental reactor, at the Nuclear Research Center of Cadarache: the MISTRAL experiments for the study of isolated absorber rods and the EPICURE experiments for the study of absorber clusters. This work led to important improvements in the calculation of isolated absorbers and absorber clusters. The reactivity worth of these clusters in particular, can now be obtained with a great accuracy: the discrepancy observed between the calculated and the experimental values is less than 2.5 %, and then slightly lower than the experimental uncertainty. (author)

  4. Elaboration and qualification of a reference calculation routes for the absorbers in the PWR reactors; Elaboration et qualification des schemas de calcul de reference pour les absorbants dans les reacteurs a eau pressurisee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanc-Tranchant, P

    1999-11-01

    The general field in which this work takes place is the field of the accuracy improvement of neutronic calculations, required to operate Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) with a better precision and a lower cost. More specifically, this thesis deals with the calculation of the absorber clusters used to control these reactors. The first aim of that work was to define and validate a reference calculation route of such an absorber cluster, based on the deterministic code Apollo 2. This calculation scheme was then to be checked against experimental data. This study of the complex situation of absorber clusters required several intermediate studies, of simpler problems, such as the study of fuel rods lattices and the study of single absorber rods (B{sub 4}C, AIC, Hafnium) isolated in such lattices. Each one of these different studies led to a particular reference calculation route. All these calculation routes were developed against reference continuous energy Monte-Carlo calculations, carried out with the stochastic code TRIPOLI14. They were then checked against experimental data measured during french experimental programs, undertaken within the EOLE experimental reactor, at the Nuclear Research Center of Cadarache: the MISTRAL experiments for the study of isolated absorber rods and the EPICURE experiments for the study of absorber clusters. This work led to important improvements in the calculation of isolated absorbers and absorber clusters. The reactivity worth of these clusters in particular, can now be obtained with a great accuracy: the discrepancy observed between the calculated and the experimental values is less than 2.5 %, and then slightly lower than the experimental uncertainty. (author)

  5. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Emissions in PAREST reference scenario 2005-2020; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. Emissionen im PAREST-Referenzszenario 2005-2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joerss, Wolfram [Institut fuer Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung gGmbH (IZT), Berlin (Germany); Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen [Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER)

    2013-06-15

    In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}), and aerosol precursors SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this sub-report of PAREST Germany's aggregate emissions totals of the considered pollutants are presented in the reference scenario. [German] Im Forschungsvorhaben PAREST wurden Emissionsszenarien bis 2020 fuer Feinstaub (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}) und die Aerosol-Vorlaeufersubstanzen SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} und NMVOC fuer Deutschland und Europa erstellt, Minderungsmassnahmen evaluiert und daraus die PM-Immissionsbelastung fuer Deutschland modelliert. In diesem Teilbericht zu PAREST werden die deutschlandweit aggregierten Emissionssummen der betrachteten Schadstoffe im Referenzszenario vorgestellt.

  6. Combining scenarios in a calculation of the overall probability distribution of cumulative releases of radioactivity from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, southeastern New Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tierney, M.S.

    1991-11-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), in southeastern New Mexico, is a research and development facility to demonstrate safe disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste. The US Department of Energy will designate WIPP as a disposal facility if it meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for disposal of such waste; the standard includes a requirement that estimates of cumulative releases of radioactivity to the accessible environment be incorporated in an overall probability distribution. The WIPP Project has chosen an approach to calculation of an overall probability distribution that employs the concept of scenarios for release and transport of radioactivity to the accessible environment. This report reviews the use of Monte Carlo methods in the calculation of an overall probability distribution and presents a logical and mathematical foundation for use of the scenario concept in such calculations. The report also draws preliminary conclusions regarding the shape of the probability distribution for the WIPP system; preliminary conclusions are based on the possible occurrence of three events and the presence of one feature: namely, the events ''attempted boreholes over rooms and drifts,'' ''mining alters ground-water regime,'' ''water-withdrawal wells provide alternate pathways,'' and the feature ''brine pocket below room or drift.'' Calculation of the WIPP systems's overall probability distributions for only five of sixteen possible scenario classes that can be obtained by combining the four postulated events or features

  7. Climate in France during the 21. century - Regionalized scenarios - Reference indices for the metropolitan region - Evolution at sea level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peings, Yannick; Planton, Serge; Deque, Michel; Jamous, Marc; Le Treut, Herve; Gallee, Hubert; Li, Laurent; Jouzel, J.

    2011-01-01

    After some comments on climate modelling (models, scenarios, uncertainties, regional predictions), the first part reports the study of several temperature indices (minimum, average and maximum daily temperature, number of days with abnormally high or low temperature, number of days of heat wave, number of days with negative temperatures, and so on.), precipitation indices (daily and extreme precipitations, dry periods, snow falls). It also discusses soil humidity index, strong wind index, river flow rate, and sea level. The second part reports simulation results for indices in metropolitan France according to the French Aladin-Climat, LMDZ and MAR models. The third volume reports evolutions and predictions of average sea level at the planet scale and along the French coasts, and discusses impacts related to sea level change (coast erosion, submersion, salt intrusion)

  8. Probabilistic calculations and sensitivity analysis of parameters for a reference biosphere model assessing the potential exposure of a population to radionuclides from a deep geological repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staudt, Christian; Kaiser, Jan Christian [Helmholtz Zentrum Muenchen, Institute of Radiation Protection, Munich (Germany); Proehl, Gerhard [International Atomic Energy Agency, Division of Radiation, Transport and Waste Safety, Wagramerstrasse 5, 1400 Vienna (Austria)

    2014-07-01

    Radioecological models are used to assess the exposure of hypothetical populations to radionuclides. Potential radionuclide sources are deep geological repositories for high level radioactive waste. Assessment time frames are long since releases from those repositories are only expected in the far future, and radionuclide migration to the geosphere biosphere interface will take additional time. Due to the long time frames, climate conditions at the repository site will change, leading to changing exposure pathways and model parameters. To identify climate dependent changes in exposure in the far field of a deep geological repository a range of reference biosphere models representing climate analogues for potential future climate states at a German site were developed. In this approach, model scenarios are developed for different contemporary climate states. It is assumed that the exposure pathways and parameters of the contemporary biosphere in the far field of the repository will change to be similar to those at the analogue sites. Since current climate models cannot predict climate developments over the assessment time frame of 1 million years, analogues for a range of realistically possible future climate conditions were selected. These climate states range from steppe to permafrost climate. As model endpoint Biosphere Dose conversion factors (BDCF) are calculated. The radionuclide specific BDCF describe the exposure of a population to radionuclides entering the biosphere in near surface ground water. The BDCF are subject to uncertainties in the exposure pathways and model parameters. In the presented work, probabilistic and sensitivity analysis was used to assess the influence of model parameter uncertainties on the BDCF and the relevance of individual parameters for the model result. This was done for the long half-live radionuclides Cs-135, I-129 and U-238. In addition to this, BDCF distributions for nine climate reference regions and several scenarios were

  9. Reference calculations on critical assemblies with Apollo2 code working with a fine multigroup mesh; Calculs de reference avec un maillage multigroupe fin sur des assemblages critiques par Apollo2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aggery, A

    1999-12-01

    The objective of this thesis is to add to the multigroup transport code APOLLO2 the capability to perform deterministic reference calculations, for any type of reactor, using a very fine energy mesh of several thousand groups. This new reference tool allows us to validate the self-shielding model used in industrial applications, to perform depletion calculations, differential effects calculations, critical buckling calculations or to evaluate precisely data required by the self shielding model. At its origin, APOLLO2 was designed to perform routine calculations with energy meshes around one hundred groups. That is why, in the current format of cross sections libraries, almost each value of the multigroup energy transfer matrix is stored. As this format is not convenient for a high number of groups (concerning memory size), we had to search out a new format for removal matrices and consequently to modify the code. In the new format we found, only some values of removal matrices are kept (these values depend on a reconstruction precision choice), the other ones being reconstructed by a linear interpolation, what reduces the size of these matrices. Then we had to show that APOLLO2 working with a fine multigroup mesh had the capability to perform reference calculations on any assembly geometry. For that, we successfully carried out the validation with several calculations for which we compared APOLLO2 results (obtained with the universal mesh of 11276 groups) to results obtained with Monte Carlo codes (MCNP, TRIPOLI4). Physical analysis led with this new tool have been very fruitful and show a great potential for such an R and D tool. (author)

  10. Scenarios catalog for the graphical console for analysis of severe accidents visualization of OEs, NAEs and calculation of source term of the NPP-LV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandoval V, S.; Mendoza R, M. E.; Tijerina S, F.; Garcia C, T.

    2016-09-01

    A nuclear power plant is operated at all times within the design criteria of structures, systems and components, and according to the operation technical specifications. For different areas of work of a nuclear power plant is necessary to carry out practices in which is useful to have the prediction of the thermo-hydraulic and radiological progression of scenarios that imply exceeding that design bases, even reaching the damage of the fuel in different degree. During the exercises and drills of the External Plan of Emergency Response, the projection of doses is done to exercise the different tasks of the plan. To make the projection of doses is required to have the radiological source term of the scenario on which is practiced. Because of this, was identified the convenience of having a catalog of scenarios for which the radiological source term was calculated. In 2004, a first version of the catalog was produced for a power of 2027 MW, and in 2011 the catalog was updated for extended power conditions, 2317 MW. Both versions were made using the severe accident simulator MAAP-3B. That catalog consists of a form and an optical storage device. The form contains tables and figures in which the characteristics of the scenario to be practiced are searched and the electronic files of the corresponding radiological source term are located in the storage device. Due to the recent development of the graphical console for analysis of severe accidents, visualization of OEs, NAEs and calculation of the source term for the nuclear power plant of Laguna Verde (NPP-LV) CoGrAAS, the catalog printed was replaced by an electronic catalog for the CoGrAAS. The new catalog retains the philosophy of the previous catalog, constituted by a wide collection of scenarios that involve different circumstances and phenomena, that can be used to practice different tasks during training exercises or simulacrums, and combined with the following advantages: the scenario selection is made from an

  11. Systematic pseudopotentials from reference eigenvalue sets for DFT calculations: Pseudopotential files

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Rivero

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We present in this article a pseudopotential (PP database for DFT calculations in the context of the SIESTA code [1–3]. Comprehensive optimized PPs in two formats (psf files and input files for ATM program are provided for 20 chemical elements for LDA and GGA exchange-correlation potentials. Our data represents a validated database of PPs for SIESTA DFT calculations. Extensive transferability tests guarantee the usefulness of these PPs.

  12. Calculation of conversion coefficients using Chinese adult reference phantoms for air submersion and ground contamination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Wei; Qiu, Rui; Wu, Zhen; Li, Chunyan; Yang, Bo; Liu, Huan; Ren, Li; Li, Junli

    2017-03-21

    The effective and organ equivalent dose coefficients have been widely used to provide assessment of doses received by adult members of the public and by workers exposed to environmental radiation from nuclear facilities under normal or accidental situations. Advancements in phantom types, weighting factors, decay data, etc, have led to the publication of newer results in this regard. This paper presents a new set of conversion coefficients for air submersion and ground contamination (with the use of Geant4) for photons from 15 keV to 10 MeV using the Chinese and International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) adult reference male and female phantoms. The radiation fields, except for energy spectrum at low energies, were validated by the data obtained from the Monte Carlo code YURI. The effective dose coefficients of monoenergetic photons, obtained for the ICRP adult reference phantoms, agree well with recently published data for air submersion and ground contamination with a plane source at a depth of 0.5 g cm -2 in soil, but an average difference of 36.5% is observed for ground surface contamination with the abovementioned radiation field. The average differences in organ equivalent dose coefficients between the Chinese and the ICRP adult reference phantoms are within 6% for most organs, but noticeable differences of up to 70% or even higher are found at photon energies below 30 keV under air submersion. The effective dose coefficients obtained with the Chinese adult reference phantoms are greater than those of the ICRP adult reference phantoms above 30 keV and 0.5 MeV for ground contamination and air submersion, respectively; the average differences from the Chinese adult reference phantoms are about 3.6% and 0.4% in the whole energy range with maximum differences of 31.8% and 27.6% at 15 keV for air submersion and ground contamination respectively. These differences are attributed to anatomical discrepancies in overlying tissue mass of an

  13. DYNREL - the reference calculation (coupled code utilization on analysis of RIA-transient)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strmensky, C.; Darilek, P.

    2003-01-01

    DYNREL is coupled code, comprising DYN3D and RELAP5 programs. The coupled code has been developed during four years. Now DYNREL is tested on selected RIA and thermo-hydraulic transient calculations. This material describes some results from selected RIA transient calculation (initiated by control rod movement). DYNREL modelled the whole nuclear reactors. The core is modeled as 313 or 349 independent thermo-hydraulic channels with 10 or 20 axial layers. Thermo-hydraulic part contains about 700 components that covered the six loops' model of nuclear power plant in detail. The calculated results are compared with DYN3D/M3, DYN3D/H1.1 results (Authors)

  14. Using the charge-stabilization technique in the double ionization potential equation-of-motion calculations with dianion references.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuś, Tomasz; Krylov, Anna I

    2011-08-28

    The charge-stabilization method is applied to double ionization potential equation-of-motion (EOM-DIP) calculations to stabilize unstable dianion reference functions. The auto-ionizing character of the dianionic reference states spoils the numeric performance of EOM-DIP limiting applications of this method. We demonstrate that reliable excitation energies can be computed by EOM-DIP using a stabilized resonance wave function instead of the lowest energy solution corresponding to the neutral + free electron(s) state of the system. The details of charge-stabilization procedure are discussed and illustrated by examples. The choice of optimal stabilizing Coulomb potential, which is strong enough to stabilize the dianion reference, yet, minimally perturbs the target states of the neutral, is the crux of the approach. Two algorithms of choosing optimal parameters of the stabilization potential are presented. One is based on the orbital energies, and another--on the basis set dependence of the total Hartree-Fock energy of the reference. Our benchmark calculations of the singlet-triplet energy gaps in several diradicals show a remarkable improvement of the EOM-DIP accuracy in problematic cases. Overall, the excitation energies in diradicals computed using the stabilized EOM-DIP are within 0.2 eV from the reference EOM spin-flip values. © 2011 American Institute of Physics

  15. Cancer: scenario and relationship of different geographical areas of the globe with special reference to North East-India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Jagannath Dev; Kalit, Manoj; Nirmolia, Tulika; Saikia, Sidhartha Protim; Sharma, Arpita; Barman, Debanjana

    2014-01-01

    Cancer is becoming the most important public health burden around the globe. As per the GLOBOCAN 2008 estimates, about 12.7 million cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths were estimated to have occurred in 2008. The burden of cancer cases for India in the year 2020 is calculated to be 1,148,757 (male 534,353; female 614,404) compared to 979,786 in 2010. The pattern of cancer incidence is varying among geographical regions, esophageal cancer for example being high in China, lung cancer in USA, and gallbladder cancer in Chile. The question remains why? Is it due to the diversity in genome pool, food habits, risk factor association and role of genetic susceptibility or some other factors associated with it? In India, the North East (NE)-India region is seeing a marked increase in cancer incidence and deaths, with a very different cancer incidence pattern compared to mainland India. The genome pool of the region is also quite distinct from the rest of India. Northeastern tribes are quite distinct from other groups; they are more closely related to East Asians than to other Indians. In this paper an attempt was made to see whether there is any similarity among the pattern of cancer incidence cases for different sites of NE-India region to South or East-Asia. Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA), Pearson Correlation coefficient test was assessed to evaluate the linkage of North-East India region to other regions. A p value NE-India with South and East-Asian regions, which may lead to the conclusion that there might be a genetic linkage between these regions.

  16. Reference quantum chemical calculations on RNA base pairs directly involving the 2'-OH group of ribose

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šponer, Jiří; Zgarbová, M.; Jurečka, Petr; Riley, K.E.; Šponer, Judit E.; Hobza, Pavel

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 4 (2009), s. 1166-1179 ISSN 1549-9618 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA400040802; GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA400550701; GA MŠk(CZ) LC06030; GA MŠk(CZ) LC512 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50040507; CEZ:AV0Z50040702; CEZ:AV0Z40550506 Keywords : RNA * ribose * quantum calculations Subject RIV: BO - Biophysics Impact factor: 4.804, year: 2009

  17. Calculation of Residual Dose Rates and Intervention Scenarios for the LHC Beam Cleaning Insertions-Constraints and Optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Brugger, Markus; Assmann, R W; Forkel-Wirth, Doris; Menzel, Hans Gregor; Roesler, Stefan; Vincke, Helmut H

    2005-01-01

    Radiation protection of the personnel who will perform interventions in the LHC Beam Cleaning Insertions is mandatory and includes the design of equipment and the establishment of work procedures. Residual dose rates due to activated equipment are expected to reach significant values such that any maintenance has to be planned and optimized in advance. Three-dimensional maps of dose equivalent rates at different cooling times after operation of the LHC have been calculated with FLUKA. The simulations are based on an explicit calculation of induced radioactivity and of the transport of the radiation from the radioactive decay. The paper summarizes the results for the Beam Cleaning Insertions and discusses the estimation of individual and collective doses received by personnel during critical interventions, such as the exchange of a collimator or the installation of Phase 2. The given examples outline the potential and the need to optimize, in an iterative way, the design of components as well as the layout of ...

  18. RECLAIM V2.0: comparison of calculated doses with other assessment tools when emulating contaminated land scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willans, Mark; Galais, Nathalie; Lennon, Chris; Trivedil, Divyesh

    2007-01-01

    ReCLAIM v2.0 is a software tool designed to calculate doses to exposure groups from radioactively contaminated land including UK Nuclear Licensed Sites. When using tools to undertake contaminated land assessments, it is important to understand the functionality of the tool and how the tool should be best used to undertake an assessment. This work describes the results from inter-comparison of ReCLAIM v2.0 with two other radioactively contaminated land tools (Conland and RCLEA). For the majority of cases there was little difference between ReCLAIM v2.0 and the other tools. In all cases where there were significant differences, the cause of the variation could be explained and quantified. In the majority of these cases the main exposure pathway was external irradiation. In these cases, variations in the calculated doses were due to the differing ways in which underpinning shielding calculations were undertaken to calculate external radiation dose coefficients. The effect was most noticeable for radionuclides emitting high energy penetrating radiation such as Co-60, Cs-134 and Cs-137. For these cases, there was a greater difference of up to around 60% in the dose comparisons between ReCLAIM v2.0 and the alternative tools, with ReCLAIM v2.0 being more conservative. These results demonstrate that where the algorithms and parameter values are similar, different tools will produce similar results. The user of such tools should be aware of cases where different results may be produced in order that an appropriate level of confidence can be assigned when making decisions based upon the results. (authors)

  19. Multi-reference approach to the calculation of photoelectron spectra including spin-orbit coupling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grell, Gilbert; Bokarev, Sergey I., E-mail: sergey.bokarev@uni-rostock.de; Kühn, Oliver [Institut für Physik, Universität Rostock, D-18051 Rostock (Germany); Winter, Bernd; Seidel, Robert [Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin für Materialien und Energie, Methods for Material Development, Albert-Einstein-Strasse 15, D-12489 Berlin (Germany); Aziz, Emad F. [Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin für Materialien und Energie, Methods for Material Development, Albert-Einstein-Strasse 15, D-12489 Berlin (Germany); Department of Physics, Freie Universität Berlin, Arnimalle 14, D-14159 Berlin (Germany); Aziz, Saadullah G. [Chemistry Department, Faculty of Science, King Abdulaziz University, 21589 Jeddah (Saudi Arabia)

    2015-08-21

    X-ray photoelectron spectra provide a wealth of information on the electronic structure. The extraction of molecular details requires adequate theoretical methods, which in case of transition metal complexes has to account for effects due to the multi-configurational and spin-mixed nature of the many-electron wave function. Here, the restricted active space self-consistent field method including spin-orbit coupling is used to cope with this challenge and to calculate valence- and core-level photoelectron spectra. The intensities are estimated within the frameworks of the Dyson orbital formalism and the sudden approximation. Thereby, we utilize an efficient computational algorithm that is based on a biorthonormal basis transformation. The approach is applied to the valence photoionization of the gas phase water molecule and to the core ionization spectrum of the [Fe(H{sub 2}O){sub 6}]{sup 2+} complex. The results show good agreement with the experimental data obtained in this work, whereas the sudden approximation demonstrates distinct deviations from experiments.

  20. New reference charts for testicular volume in Dutch children and adolescents allow the calculation of standard deviation scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joustra, Sjoerd D; van der Plas, Evelyn M; Goede, Joery; Oostdijk, Wilma; Delemarre-van de Waal, Henriette A; Hack, Wilfried W M; van Buuren, Stef; Wit, Jan M

    2015-06-01

    Accurate calculations of testicular volume standard deviation (SD) scores are not currently available. We constructed LMS-smoothed age-reference charts for testicular volume in healthy boys. The LMS method was used to calculate reference data, based on testicular volumes from ultrasonography and Prader orchidometer of 769 healthy Dutch boys aged 6 months to 19 years. We also explored the association between testicular growth and pubic hair development, and data were compared to orchidometric testicular volumes from the 1997 Dutch nationwide growth study. The LMS-smoothed reference charts showed that no revision of the definition of normal onset of male puberty - from nine to 14 years of age - was warranted. In healthy boys, the pubic hair stage SD scores corresponded with testicular volume SD scores (r = 0.394). However, testes were relatively small for pubic hair stage in Klinefelter's syndrome and relatively large in immunoglobulin superfamily member 1 deficiency syndrome. The age-corrected SD scores for testicular volume will aid in the diagnosis and follow-up of abnormalities in the timing and progression of male puberty and in research evaluations. The SD scores can be compared with pubic hair SD scores to identify discrepancies between cell functions that result in relative microorchidism or macroorchidism. ©2015 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. The effect of code user and boundary conditions on RELAP calculations of MTR research reactor transient scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khedr Ahmed

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The safety evaluation of nuclear power and re search reactors is a very important step before their construction and during their operation. This evaluation based on the best estimate calculations requires qualified codes qualified users, and qualified nodalizations. The effect of code users on the RELAP5 results during the analysis of loss of flow transient in MTR research reactors is presented in this pa per. To clarify this effect, two nodalizations for research reactor different in the simulation of the open water surface boundary conditions of the reactor pool have been used. Very different results are obtained with few choices for code users. The core natural circulation flow with the be ginning of core boiling doesn't stop but in creases. The in creasing in the natural circulation flow shifts out the boiling from the core and the clad temperature decreases be low the local saturation temperature.

  2. A Review on Current Reference Calculation of Three-Phase Grid-Connected PV Converters under Grid Faults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Afshari, Ehsan; Moradi, Gholam Reza; Yang, Yongheng

    2017-01-01

    Unbalanced grid voltage dips may lead to unbalanced non-sinusoidal current injections, dc-link voltage oscillations, and active and/or reactive power oscillations with twice the grid fundamental frequency in three-phase grid-connected Photovoltaic (PV) systems. Double grid frequency oscillations...... of the most important issues that should be coped with for a reliable operation of grid-connected converters under unbalanced grid faults. Accordingly, this paper reviews the existing CRC methods and presents a current reference generation method, which can have 16 unique modes. Issues are also investigated...... at the dc-link of the conventional two-stage PV inverters can further deteriorate the dc-link capacitor, which is one of the most life-limiting components in the system. Proper controls of these converters may efficiently address this problem. In those solutions, Current Reference Calculation (CRC) is one...

  3. The calculation of dose from photon exposures using reference human phantoms and Monte Carlo methods. Pt. 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petoussi, N.; Zankl, M.; Williams, G.; Veit, R.; Drexler, G.

    1987-01-01

    There has been some evidence that cervical cancer patients who were treated by radiotherapy, had an increased incidence of second primary cancers noticeable 15 years or more after the radiotherapy. The data suggested that high dose pelvic irradiation was associated with increase in cancers of the bladder, kidneys, rectum, ovaries, corpus uteri, and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma but not leukemia (Kleinerman et al., 1982, Morton 1973). The aim of the present work is to estimate the absorbed dose, due to radiotherapy treatment for cervival cancer, to various organs and tissues in the body. Monte Carlo calculations were performed to calculate the organ absorbed doses resulting from intracavitary sources such as ovoids and applicators filled or loaded with radium, Co-60 and Cs-137. For that purpose a routine which simulates an internal source was constructed and added to the existing Monte Carlo code (GSF-Bericht S-885, Kramer et al.). Calculations were also made for external beam therapy. Various anterior, posterior and lateral fields were applied, resulting from megavoltage, Co-60 and Cs-137 therapy machines. The calculated organ doses are tabulated in three different ways: as organ dose per air Kerma in the reference field, according to the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU Report No 38, 1985); as organ dose per surface dose and as organ dose per tissue dose at Point B. (orig.)

  4. The uncertainty of reference standards--a guide to understanding factors impacting uncertainty, uncertainty calculations, and vendor certifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, Kevin; Chang, Ning; Dilek, Isil; Jian, Huahua; Pogue, Sherri; Sreenivasan, Uma

    2009-10-01

    Certified solution standards are widely used in forensic toxicological, clinical/diagnostic, and environmental testing. Typically, these standards are purchased as ampouled solutions with a certified concentration. Vendors present concentration and uncertainty differently on their Certificates of Analysis. Understanding the factors that impact uncertainty and which factors have been considered in the vendor's assignment of uncertainty are critical to understanding the accuracy of the standard and the impact on testing results. Understanding these variables is also important for laboratories seeking to comply with ISO/IEC 17025 requirements and for those preparing reference solutions from neat materials at the bench. The impact of uncertainty associated with the neat material purity (including residual water, residual solvent, and inorganic content), mass measurement (weighing techniques), and solvent addition (solution density) on the overall uncertainty of the certified concentration is described along with uncertainty calculations.

  5. Concentration transport calculations by an original C++ program with interediate fidelity physics through user-defined buildings with an emphasis on release scenarios in radiological facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayre, George Anthony

    The purpose of this dissertation was to develop the C ++ program Emergency Dose to calculate transport of radionuclides through indoor spaces using intermediate fidelity physics that provides improved spatial heterogeneity over well-mixed models such as MELCORRTM and much lower computation times than CFD codes such as FLUENTRTM . Modified potential flow theory, which is an original formulation of potential flow theory with additions of turbulent jet and natural convection approximations, calculates spatially heterogeneous velocity fields that well-mixed models cannot predict. Other original contributions of MPFT are: (1) generation of high fidelity boundary conditions relative to well-mixed-CFD coupling methods (conflation), (2) broadening of potential flow applications to arbitrary indoor spaces previously restricted to specific applications such as exhaust hood studies, and (3) great reduction of computation time relative to CFD codes without total loss of heterogeneity. Additionally, the Lagrangian transport module, which is discussed in Sections 1.3 and 2.4, showcases an ensemble-based formulation thought to be original to interior studies. Velocity and concentration transport benchmarks against analogous formulations in COMSOLRTM produced favorable results with discrepancies resulting from the tetrahedral meshing used in COMSOLRTM outperforming the Cartesian method used by Emergency Dose. A performance comparison of the concentration transport modules against MELCORRTM showed that Emergency Dose held advantages over the well-mixed model especially in scenarios with many interior partitions and varied source positions. A performance comparison of velocity module against FLUENTRTM showed that viscous drag provided the largest error between Emergency Dose and CFD velocity calculations, but that Emergency Dose's turbulent jets well approximated the corresponding CFD jets. Overall, Emergency Dose was found to provide a viable intermediate solution method for

  6. Probabilistic calculations and sensitivity analysis of parameters for a reference biosphere modell assessing final deposition of radioaktive waste; Probabilistische Rechnungen und Sensitivitaetsanalyse von Parametern fuer ein Referenzbiosphaerenmodell zur Endlagerung von radioaktiven Abfaellen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staudt, C.; Kaiser, J.C. Christian [Helmholtz Zentrum Muenchen, Deutsches Forschungszentrum fuer Gesundheit und Umwelt, Muenchen (Germany). Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz

    2014-01-20

    Radioecological models are used for the assessment of potential exposures of a population to radionuclides from final repositories for high level radioactive waste. Due to the long disposal time frame, changes in model relevant exposure pathways need to be accounted for. Especially climate change will result in changes of the modelled system. Reference biosphere models are used to asses climate related changes in the far field of a final repository. In this approach, model scenarios are developed for potential future climate states and defined by parameters derived from currently existing, similar climate regions. It is assumed, that habits and agricultural practices of a population will adapt to the new climate over long periods of time, until they mirror the habits of a contemporary population living in a similar climate. As an end point of the models, Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF) are calculated. These radionuclide specific BDCF describe the exposure of a hypothetical population resulting from a standardized radionuclide contamination in near surface ground water. Model results are subject to uncertainties due to inherent uncertainties of assumed future developments, habits and empirically measured parameters. In addition to deterministic calculations, sensitivity analysis and probabilistic calculations were done for several model scenarios, to control the quality of the model and due to the high number of parameters used to define different climate states, soil types and consumption habits.

  7. Calculation of normalised organ and effective doses to adult reference computational phantoms from contemporary computed tomography scanners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, Jan T.M.; Shrimpton, Paul C.

    2010-01-01

    The general-purpose Monte Carlo radiation transport code MCNPX has been used to simulate photon transport and energy deposition in anthropomorphic phantoms due to the x-ray exposure from the Philips iCT 256 and Siemens Definition CT scanners, together with the previously studied General Electric 9800. The MCNPX code was compiled with the Intel FORTRAN compiler and run on a Linux PC cluster. A patch has been successfully applied to reduce computing times by about 4%. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has recently published the Adult Male (AM) and Adult Female (AF) reference computational voxel phantoms as successors to the Medical Internal Radiation Dose (MIRD) stylised hermaphrodite mathematical phantoms that form the basis for the widely-used ImPACT CT dosimetry tool. Comparisons of normalised organ and effective doses calculated for a range of scanner operating conditions have demonstrated significant differences in results (in excess of 30%) between the voxel and mathematical phantoms as a result of variations in anatomy. These analyses illustrate the significant influence of choice of phantom on normalised organ doses and the need for standardisation to facilitate comparisons of dose. Further such dose simulations are needed in order to update the ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry spreadsheet for contemporary CT practice. (author)

  8. Efficient implementation of three-dimensional reference interaction site model self-consistent-field method: application to solvatochromic shift calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minezawa, Noriyuki; Kato, Shigeki

    2007-02-07

    The authors present an implementation of the three-dimensional reference interaction site model self-consistent-field (3D-RISM-SCF) method. First, they introduce a robust and efficient algorithm for solving the 3D-RISM equation. The algorithm is a hybrid of the Newton-Raphson and Picard methods. The Jacobian matrix is analytically expressed in a computationally useful form. Second, they discuss the solute-solvent electrostatic interaction. For the solute to solvent route, the electrostatic potential (ESP) map on a 3D grid is constructed directly from the electron density. The charge fitting procedure is not required to determine the ESP. For the solvent to solute route, the ESP acting on the solute molecule is derived from the solvent charge distribution obtained by solving the 3D-RISM equation. Matrix elements of the solute-solvent interaction are evaluated by the direct numerical integration. A remarkable reduction in the computational time is observed in both routes. Finally, the authors implement the first derivatives of the free energy with respect to the solute nuclear coordinates. They apply the present method to "solute" water and formaldehyde in aqueous solvent using the simple point charge model, and the results are compared with those from other methods: the six-dimensional molecular Ornstein-Zernike SCF, the one-dimensional site-site RISM-SCF, and the polarizable continuum model. The authors also calculate the solvatochromic shifts of acetone, benzonitrile, and nitrobenzene using the present method and compare them with the experimental and other theoretical results.

  9. New conformity indices based on the calculation of distances between the target volume and the volume of reference isodose

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J M; Park, S-Y; Ye, S-J; Kim, J H; Carlson, J

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To present conformity indices (CIs) based on the distance differences between the target volume (TV) and the volume of reference isodose (VRI). Methods: The points on the three-dimensional surfaces of the TV and the VRI were generated. Then, the averaged distances between the points on the TV and the VRI were calculated (CIdistance). The performance of the presented CIs were evaluated by analysing six situations, which were a perfect match, an expansion and a reduction of the distance from the centroid to the VRI compared with the distance from the centroid to the TV by 10%, a lateral shift of the VRI by 3 cm, a rotation of the VRI by 45° and a spherical-shaped VRI having the same volume as the TV. The presented CIs were applied to the clinical prostate and head and neck (H&N) plans. Results: For the perfect match, CIdistance was 0 with 0 as the standard deviation (SD). When expanding and reducing, CIdistance was 10 and −10 with SDs 11. The average value of the CIdistance in the prostate and H&N plans was 0.13 ± 7.44 and 6.04 ± 23.27, respectively. Conclusion: The performance of the CIdistance was equal or better than those of the conventional CIs. Advances in knowledge: The evaluation of target conformity by the distances between the surface of the TV and the VRI could be more accurate than evaluation with volume information. PMID:25225915

  10. Adaptation of penelope Monte Carlo code system to the absorbed dose metrology: characterization of high energy photon beams and calculations of reference dosimeter correction factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazurier, J.

    1999-01-01

    This thesis has been performed in the framework of national reference setting-up for absorbed dose in water and high energy photon beam provided with the SATURNE-43 medical accelerator of the BNM-LPRI (acronym for National Bureau of Metrology and Primary standard laboratory of ionising radiation). The aim of this work has been to develop and validate different user codes, based on PENELOPE Monte Carlo code system, to determine the photon beam characteristics and calculate the correction factors of reference dosimeters such as Fricke dosimeters and graphite calorimeter. In the first step, the developed user codes have permitted the influence study of different components constituting the irradiation head. Variance reduction techniques have been used to reduce the calculation time. The phase space has been calculated for 6, 12 and 25 MV at the output surface level of the accelerator head, then used for calculating energy spectra and dose distributions in the reference water phantom. Results obtained have been compared with experimental measurements. The second step has been devoted to develop an user code allowing calculation correction factors associated with both BNM-LPRI's graphite and Fricke dosimeters thanks to a correlated sampling method starting with energy spectra obtained in the first step. Then the calculated correction factors have been compared with experimental and calculated results obtained with the Monte Carlo EGS4 code system. The good agreement, between experimental and calculated results, leads to validate simulations performed with the PENELOPE code system. (author)

  11. Reference life cycle assessment scenarios for manure management in the Baltic Sea Regions - An assessment covering six animal production, five BSR countries, and four manure types

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamelin, Lorie; Baky, A; Cano-Bernal, J

    the manure is applied, specific legislations governing the manure management practices, etc.). Further, it presents a reference manure composition for each of these reference systems, including key parameters such as dry matter, nitrogen (inorganic and total), phosphorus, carbon and volatile solids content......One major pre-condition for assessing a manure management technique in a whole system or LCA-approach is to define a reference system against which this technique can be assessed. This report thus presents and details the establishment of such reference systems, comprising eight different manure...... types (fattening pig slurry, dairy cow slurry, hens manure, bulls deep litter, fattening pig solid manure, dairy cow solid manure, horse manure & broilers manure) and five Baltic Sea Regions (Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Poland), for a total of 15 reference systems. It presents, for each...

  12. Application of portfolio analysis to the Dutch generating mix. Reference case and two renewables cases, year 2030, SE and GE scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, J.C.; Beurskens, L.W.M.; Van Tilburg, X.

    2006-02-01

    This report presents results of an application of Markowitz Portfolio Theory (MPT) to the future portfolio of electricity generating technologies in the Netherlands in year 2030. Projections are made based on two specific scenarios constructed by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), i.e. 'Strong Europe (SE)' and 'Global Economy (GE)'. This study zooms in on the electricity cost risk dimension of the Dutch portfolio of generating technologies. Major results of this study are: (a) In both scenarios, the base variant is not very efficient. Graphical analysis suggests that diversification may yield up to 20% risk reduction at no extra cost; (b) Promotion of renewable energy can greatly decrease the portfolio risk. Defining mixes without renewables results in significantly riskier mixes with relatively small impact on portfolio costs; (c) Because of its relative low risk and high potential, large-scale implementation of offshore wind can reduce cost risk of the Dutch generating portfolio while only in the GE scenario a (small) upward effect on the projected Dutch electricity cost in year 2030 is foreseen. In a SE world large-scale implementation of offshore wind is projected to have a downward effect on Dutch electricity prices by the year 2030

  13. The Uhlenbeck-Ford model: Exact virial coefficients and application as a reference system in fluid-phase free-energy calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paula Leite, Rodolfo; Freitas, Rodrigo; Azevedo, Rodolfo; de Koning, Maurice

    2016-11-01

    The Uhlenbeck-Ford (UF) model was originally proposed for the theoretical study of imperfect gases, given that all its virial coefficients can be evaluated exactly, in principle. Here, in addition to computing the previously unknown coefficients B11 through B13, we assess its applicability as a reference system in fluid-phase free-energy calculations using molecular simulation techniques. Our results demonstrate that, although the UF model itself is too soft, appropriately scaled Uhlenbeck-Ford (sUF) models provide robust reference systems that allow accurate fluid-phase free-energy calculations without the need for an intermediate reference model. Indeed, in addition to the accuracy with which their free energies are known and their convenient scaling properties, the fluid is the only thermodynamically stable phase for a wide range of sUF models. This set of favorable properties may potentially put the sUF fluid-phase reference systems on par with the standard role that harmonic and Einstein solids play as reference systems for solid-phase free-energy calculations.

  14. The calculation of dose from external photon exposures using reference human phantoms and Monte-Carlo methods. Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, R.; Zankl, M.; Williams, G.; Drexler, G.

    1982-12-01

    By the help of a Monte-Carlo program the dose that single organs, organ groups and bigger or smaller parts of body would receive on an average, caused by an irradiation definitely fixed by the geometry of irradiation and photon energy, can be determined. Thus the phantom in connection with the Monte-Carlo program can be used for several considerations as for example - calculation of dose from occupational exposures - calculation of dose from diagnostic procedures - calculation of dose from radiotherapy procedures. (orig.)

  15. The calculation of dose from external photon exposures using reference human phantoms and Monte Carlo methods. Pt. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, G.; Zankl, M.; Drexler, G.

    1984-12-01

    This report considers the contribution from scattered radiation to the dose to organs and tissues which lie outside the useful therapy beams. The results presented are the product of Monte Carlo studies used to determine the tissue doses due to internal scattering of the useful beams only. General cases are calculated in which central target volumes in the trunk are treated with 10 x 14 cm 2 and 14 x 14 cm 2 fields from 200 kV, Co-60, 8 MV and 25 MV therapy equipment. Target volumes in the neck are considered to be treated with 5 x 5 cm 2 fields. Different treatment plans are calculated including rotational therapy. Also two specific cases are more fully analysed, namely for Ankylosing Spondylitis and central abdomen malignant disease in the region of the head of the pancreas. The calculated organ doses are presented in tables as a percentage of the target volume dose. (orig.)

  16. A computer code for calculation of solvent-extraction separation in a multicomponent system with reference to nuclear fuel reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carassiti, F.; Liuzzo, G.; Morelli, A.

    1982-01-01

    Nuclear technology development pointed out the need for a new assessment of the fuel cycle back-end. Treatment and disposal of radioactive wastes arising from nuclear fuel reprocessing is known as one of the problems not yet satisfactorily solved, together with separation process of uranium and plutonium from fission products in highly irradiated fuels. Aim of this work is to present an improvement of the computer code for solvent extraction process calculation previously designed by the authors. The modeling of the extraction system has been modified by introducing a new method for calculating the distribution coefficients. The new correlations were based on deriving empirical functions for not only the apparent equilibrium constants, but also the solvation number. The mathematical model derived for calculating separation performance has been then tested for up to ten components and twelve theoretical stages with minor modifications to the convergence criteria. Suitable correlations for the calculation of the distribution coefficients of Uranium, Plutonium, Nitric Acid and fission products were constructed and used to successfully simulate several experimental conditions. (Author)

  17. Towards a universal method for calculating hydration free energies: a 3D reference interaction site model with partial molar volume correction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, David S; Frolov, Andrey I; Ratkova, Ekaterina L; Fedorov, Maxim V

    2010-12-15

    We report a simple universal method to systematically improve the accuracy of hydration free energies calculated using an integral equation theory of molecular liquids, the 3D reference interaction site model. A strong linear correlation is observed between the difference of the experimental and (uncorrected) calculated hydration free energies and the calculated partial molar volume for a data set of 185 neutral organic molecules from different chemical classes. By using the partial molar volume as a linear empirical correction to the calculated hydration free energy, we obtain predictions of hydration free energies in excellent agreement with experiment (R = 0.94, σ = 0.99 kcal mol (- 1) for a test set of 120 organic molecules).

  18. Towards a universal method for calculating hydration free energies: a 3D reference interaction site model with partial molar volume correction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, David S; Frolov, Andrey I; Ratkova, Ekaterina L; Fedorov, Maxim V

    2010-01-01

    We report a simple universal method to systematically improve the accuracy of hydration free energies calculated using an integral equation theory of molecular liquids, the 3D reference interaction site model. A strong linear correlation is observed between the difference of the experimental and (uncorrected) calculated hydration free energies and the calculated partial molar volume for a data set of 185 neutral organic molecules from different chemical classes. By using the partial molar volume as a linear empirical correction to the calculated hydration free energy, we obtain predictions of hydration free energies in excellent agreement with experiment (R = 0.94, σ = 0.99 kcal mol -1 for a test set of 120 organic molecules). (fast track communication)

  19. Accuracy of Acuros XB and AAA dose calculation for small fields with reference to RapidArc stereotactic treatments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fogliata, Antonella; Nicolini, Giorgia; Clivio, Alessandro; Vanetti, Eugenio; Cozzi, Luca

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To assess the accuracy against measurements of two photon dose calculation algorithms (Acuros XB and the Anisotropic Analytical algorithm AAA) for small fields usable in stereotactic treatments with particular focus on RapidArc. Methods: Acuros XB and AAA were configured for stereotactic use. Baseline accuracy was assessed on small jaw-collimated open fields for different values for the spot sizes parameter in the beam data: 0.0, 0.5, 1, and 2 mm. Data were calculated with a grid of 1 x 1 mm 2 . Investigated fields were: 3 x 3, 2 x 2, 1 x 1, and 0.8 x 0.8 cm 2 with a 6 MV photon beam generated from a Clinac2100iX (Varian, Palo Alto, CA). Profiles, PDD, and output factors were measured in water with a PTW diamond detector (detector size: 4 mm 2 , thickness 0.4 mm) and compared to calculations. Four RapidArc test plans were optimized, calculated and delivered with jaw settings J3 x 3, J2 x 2, and J1 x 1 cm 2 , the last was optimized twice to generate high (H) and low (L) modulation patterns. Each plan consisted of one partial arc (gantry 110 deg. to 250 deg.), and collimator 45 deg. Dose to isocenter was measured in a PTW Octavius phantom and compared to calculations. 2D measurements were performed by means of portal dosimetry with the GLAaS method developed at authors' institute. Analysis was performed with gamma pass-fail test with 3% dose difference and 2 mm distance to agreement thresholds. Results: Open square fields: penumbrae from open field profiles were in good agreement with diamond measurements for 1 mm spot size setting for Acuros XB, and between 0.5 and 1 mm for AAA. Maximum MU difference between calculations and measurements was 1.7% for Acuros XB (0.2% for fields greater than 1 x 1 cm 2 ) with 0.5 or 1 mm spot size. Agreement for AAA was within 0.7% (2.8%) for 0.5 (1 mm) spot size. RapidArc plans: doses were evaluated in a 4 mm diameter structure at isocenter and computed values differed from measurements by 0.0, -0.2, 5.5, and -3.4% for

  20. Accuracy of Acuros XB and AAA dose calculation for small fields with reference to RapidArc stereotactic treatments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fogliata, Antonella; Nicolini, Giorgia; Clivio, Alessandro; Vanetti, Eugenio; Cozzi, Luca [Oncology Institute of Southern Switzerland, Medical Physics Unit, CH-6500 Bellinzona (Switzerland)

    2011-11-15

    Purpose: To assess the accuracy against measurements of two photon dose calculation algorithms (Acuros XB and the Anisotropic Analytical algorithm AAA) for small fields usable in stereotactic treatments with particular focus on RapidArc. Methods: Acuros XB and AAA were configured for stereotactic use. Baseline accuracy was assessed on small jaw-collimated open fields for different values for the spot sizes parameter in the beam data: 0.0, 0.5, 1, and 2 mm. Data were calculated with a grid of 1 x 1 mm{sup 2}. Investigated fields were: 3 x 3, 2 x 2, 1 x 1, and 0.8 x 0.8 cm{sup 2} with a 6 MV photon beam generated from a Clinac2100iX (Varian, Palo Alto, CA). Profiles, PDD, and output factors were measured in water with a PTW diamond detector (detector size: 4 mm{sup 2}, thickness 0.4 mm) and compared to calculations. Four RapidArc test plans were optimized, calculated and delivered with jaw settings J3 x 3, J2 x 2, and J1 x 1 cm{sup 2}, the last was optimized twice to generate high (H) and low (L) modulation patterns. Each plan consisted of one partial arc (gantry 110 deg. to 250 deg.), and collimator 45 deg. Dose to isocenter was measured in a PTW Octavius phantom and compared to calculations. 2D measurements were performed by means of portal dosimetry with the GLAaS method developed at authors' institute. Analysis was performed with gamma pass-fail test with 3% dose difference and 2 mm distance to agreement thresholds. Results: Open square fields: penumbrae from open field profiles were in good agreement with diamond measurements for 1 mm spot size setting for Acuros XB, and between 0.5 and 1 mm for AAA. Maximum MU difference between calculations and measurements was 1.7% for Acuros XB (0.2% for fields greater than 1 x 1 cm{sup 2}) with 0.5 or 1 mm spot size. Agreement for AAA was within 0.7% (2.8%) for 0.5 (1 mm) spot size. RapidArc plans: doses were evaluated in a 4 mm diameter structure at isocenter and computed values differed from measurements by 0.0, -0

  1. Parameters for calculation of nuclear reactions of relevance to non-energy nuclear applications (Reference Input Parameter Library: Phase III). Summary report of the first research coordination meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capote Noy, R.

    2004-08-01

    A summary is given of the First Research Coordination Meeting on Parameters for Calculation of Nuclear Reactions of Relevance to Non-Energy Nuclear Applications (Reference Input Parameter Library: Phase III), including a critical review of the RIPL-2 file. The new library should serve as input for theoretical calculations of nuclear reaction data at incident energies up to 200 MeV, as needed for energy and non-energy modern applications of nuclear data. Technical discussions and the resulting work plan of the Coordinated Research Programme are summarized, along with actions and deadlines. Participants' contributions to the RCM are also attached. (author)

  2. The calculation of dose from external photon exposures using reference human phantoms and Monte Carlo methods. Pt. 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zankl, M.; Panzer, W.; Drexler, G.

    1991-11-01

    Computed tomography (CT) is a technique which offers a high diagnostic capability; however, the dose to the patient is high compared to conventional radiography. This report provides a catalogue of organ doses resulting from CT examinations. The organ doses were calculated for the type of CT scanners most commonly used in the FRG and for three different radiation qualities. For the dose calculations, the patients were represented by the adult mathematical phantoms Adam and Eva. The radiation transport in the body was simulated using a Monte Carlo method. The doses were calculated as conversion factors of mean organ doses per air kerma free in air on the axis of rotation. Mean organ dose conversion factors are given per organ and per single CT slice of 1 cm width. The mean dose to an organ resulting from a particular CT examination can be estimated by summing up the contribution to the organ dose from each relevant slice. In order to facilitate the selection of the appropriate slices, a table is given which relates the mathematical phantoms' coordinates to certain anatomical landmarks in the human body. (orig.)

  3. The calculation of dose from external photon exposures using reference human phantoms and Monte Carlo methods. Pt. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drexler, G.; Panzer, W.; Widenmann, L.; Williams, G.; Zankl, M.

    1984-03-01

    This report gives tables of conversion factors for the calculation of organ doses from technical parameters of typical radiographic techniques. These conversion factors were calculated using a male and a female mathematical human phantom and an efficient Monte Carlo programme that determines the mean organ doses from the energy deposited in each organ. Each diagnostic X-ray examination is studied using three X-ray spectra resulting from three different high tension values. The conversion factors per unit entrance air dose in free air are given for sixteen organs and for the entrance and exit surface skin doses. The tables are actually valid only for the given parameters such as phantom dimensions, source-to-skin distance, projection and X-ray quality. This, of course, gives rise to some uncertainty when dealing with the individual technique and patient. The uncertainty in organ dose of adult patients, however, should not be very large, if the calculation is based on a similar geometry, and before all, on the actually administered entrance air dose in the selected high tension range according to the patient parameters. (orig.)

  4. Comparative analysis of a hypothetical coolant loss accident in an LMFB reactor with the use of various calculation models for a common reference problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Royl, P.

    1979-01-01

    The results of a comparative analysis of the initial and dismantling stages of a hypothetical loss of flow accident in an LMFB reactor are presented. The analyses were made for a common reference problem with four different calculation models (CARMEN/KADIS, SURDYN, CAPRI/KADIS and FRAX). The reference core is described specifically, as are the differences in its geometrical disposition in the models, the static and transient conditions before and after the start of boiling and during dismantling. The differences in the models used for simulating the boiling and the dismantling are compared. The structure of the core, as well as the calculation conditions and hypotheses, were intentionally designed so that the accident would culminate, in all cases, in an energetic hydrodynamic dismantling stage

  5. Adaptation of penelope Monte Carlo code system to the absorbed dose metrology: characterization of high energy photon beams and calculations of reference dosimeter correction factors; Adaptation du code Monte Carlo penelope pour la metrologie de la dose absorbee: caracterisation des faisceaux de photons X de haute energie et calcul de facteurs de correction de dosimetres de reference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazurier, J

    1999-05-28

    This thesis has been performed in the framework of national reference setting-up for absorbed dose in water and high energy photon beam provided with the SATURNE-43 medical accelerator of the BNM-LPRI (acronym for National Bureau of Metrology and Primary standard laboratory of ionising radiation). The aim of this work has been to develop and validate different user codes, based on PENELOPE Monte Carlo code system, to determine the photon beam characteristics and calculate the correction factors of reference dosimeters such as Fricke dosimeters and graphite calorimeter. In the first step, the developed user codes have permitted the influence study of different components constituting the irradiation head. Variance reduction techniques have been used to reduce the calculation time. The phase space has been calculated for 6, 12 and 25 MV at the output surface level of the accelerator head, then used for calculating energy spectra and dose distributions in the reference water phantom. Results obtained have been compared with experimental measurements. The second step has been devoted to develop an user code allowing calculation correction factors associated with both BNM-LPRI's graphite and Fricke dosimeters thanks to a correlated sampling method starting with energy spectra obtained in the first step. Then the calculated correction factors have been compared with experimental and calculated results obtained with the Monte Carlo EGS4 code system. The good agreement, between experimental and calculated results, leads to validate simulations performed with the PENELOPE code system. (author)

  6. Energy efficient cultivation planning for pot plants. A calculation platform for energy efficient scenarios in the Poinsettia cultivation; Energiezuinige Teeltplanning voor Potplanten. Een rekenplatform voor energie-efficiente scenario's in de Poinsettiateelt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buwalda, F.; Van Noort, F. [Wageningen UR Glastuinbouw, Wageningen (Netherlands); Houter, B. [GreenQ, Bleiswijk (Netherlands); Benninga, J. [Landbouw-Economisch Instituut LEI, Wageningen (Netherlands); De Rooij, E. [DLV Plant, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2012-06-15

    The project Energy Efficient Scheduling of Pot Plant Production was aimed at developing and testing a decision support system for pot plant nurseries. The system allowed growers and consultants to compare the effects of changes in production schedules and climate settings on crop performance and energy requirement. The model-based scenario tool incorporated dynamic crop models for Euphorbia pulcherrima, Ficus benjamina and Hydrangea macrophylla, and the KASPRO model for greenhouse climate and energy balance. The system automatically acquired data from a local weather forecast service, real-time, web-based nursery-specific data acquisition systems and crop registration modules. Web-based data sharing also supported benchmarking between nurseries. The system was tested in field trials, involving four nurseries for each pot plant species. Improvements in energy efficiency of the production process resulted from optimized pot spacing schedules and from temperature strategies incorporating more prominent influences of the season, weather conditions and crop developmental phase [Dutch] In het kader van het project Energiezuinige Teeltplanning voor Potplanten is gewerkt aan een adviessysteem dat potplantentelers in staat stelt om zelfstandig de energie-efficientie van teeltscenario's te evalueren op basis van actuele, bedrijfsspecifieke gegevens. Daarnaast maakt het systeem het mogelijk om via internet teeltscenario's te delen met teeltadviseurs en binnen bedrijfsvergelijkingsgroepen. Het systeem is gebaseerd op dynamische gewasmodellen voor Hortensia, Poinsettia en Ficus, en maakt voor het berekenen van kasklimaat en energiestromen gebruik van het rekenmodel KASPRO. Dit rapport beschrijft de werking van het systeem, de resultaten op 4 bedrijven per gewas, de reacties van de betrokken telers, en een evaluatie van het project. De belangrijkste mogelijkheden om de energie-efficientie van een teelt te verbeteren werden gevonden in verbeterde wijderzetschema

  7. Energy efficient cultivation planning for pot plants. A calculation platform for energy efficient scenarios in the Hortensia cultivation; Energiezuinige Teeltplanning voor Potplanten. Een rekenplatform voor energie-efficiente scenario's in de Hortensia-teelt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buwalda, F.; Van Noort, F. [Wageningen UR Glastuinbouw, Wageningen (Netherlands); Houter, B. [GreenQ, Bleiswijk (Netherlands); Benninga, J. [Landbouw-Economisch Instituut LEI, Wageningen (Netherlands); Dijkstra, T.; De Rooij, E. [DLV Plant, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2012-05-15

    The project Energy Efficient Scheduling of Pot Plant Production was aimed at developing and testing a decision support system for pot plant nurseries. The system allowed growers and consultants to compare the effects of changes in production schedules and climate settings on crop performance and energy requirement. The model-based scenario tool incorporated dynamic crop models for Euphorbia pulcherrima, Ficus benjamina and Hydrangea macrophylla, and the KASPRO model for greenhouse climate and energy balance. The system automatically acquired data from a local weather forecast service, real-time, web-based nursery-specific data acquisition systems and crop registration modules. Web-based data sharing also supported benchmarking between nurseries. The system was tested in field trials, involving four nurseries for each pot plant species. Improvements in energy efficiency of the production process resulted from optimized pot spacing schedules and from temperature strategies incorporating more prominent influences of the season, weather conditions and crop developmental phase [Dutch] In het kader van het project Energiezuinige Teeltplanning voor Potplanten is gewerkt aan een adviessysteem dat potplantentelers in staat stelt om zelfstandig de energie-efficientie van teeltscenario's te evalueren op basis van actuele, bedrijfsspecifieke gegevens. Daarnaast maakt het systeem het mogelijk om via internet teeltscenario's te delen met teeltadviseurs en binnen bedrijfsvergelijkingsgroepen. Het systeem is gebaseerd op dynamische gewasmodellen voor Hortensia, Poinsettia en Ficus, en maakt voor het berekenen van kasklimaat en energiestromen gebruik van het rekenmodel KASPRO. Dit rapport beschrijft de werking van het systeem, de resultaten op 4 bedrijven per gewas, de reacties van de betrokken telers, en een evaluatie van het project. De belangrijkste mogelijkheden om de energie-efficientie van een teelt te verbeteren werden gevonden in verbeterde wijderzetschema

  8. Energy efficient cultivation planning for pot plants. A calculation platform for energy efficient scenarios in the Ficus cultivation; Energiezuinige Teeltplanning voor Potplanten. Een rekenplatform voor energie-efficiente scenario's in de Ficus-teelt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buwalda, F.; Van Noort, F. [Wageningen UR Glastuinbouw, Wageningen (Netherlands); De Jong, B.

    2012-06-15

    The project Energy Efficient Scheduling of Pot Plant Production was aimed at developing and testing a decision support system for pot plant nurseries. The system allowed growers and consultants to compare the effects of changes in production schedules and climate settings on crop performance and energy requirement. The model-based scenario tool incorporated dynamic crop models for Euphorbia pulcherrima, Ficus benjamina and Hydrangea macrophylla, and the KASPRO model for greenhouse climate and energy balance. The system automatically acquired data from a local weather forecast service, real-time, web-based nursery-specific data acquisition systems and crop registration modules. Web-based data sharing also supported benchmarking between nurseries. The system was tested in field trials, involving four nurseries for each pot plant species. Improvements in energy efficiency of the production process resulted from optimized pot spacing schedules and from temperature strategies incorporating more prominent influences of the season, weather conditions and crop developmental phase [Dutch] In het kader van het project Energiezuinige Teeltplanning voor Potplanten is gewerkt aan een adviessysteem dat potplantentelers in staat stelt om zelfstandig de energie-efficiëntie van teeltscenario's te evalueren op basis van actuele, bedrijfsspecifieke gegevens. Daarnaast maakt het systeem het mogelijk om via internet teeltscenario's te delen met teeltadviseurs en binnen bedrijfsvergelijkingsgroepen. Het systeem is gebaseerd op dynamische gewasmodellen voor Hortensia, Poinsettia en Ficus, en maakt voor het berekenen van kasklimaat en energiestromen gebruik van het rekenmodel KASPRO. Dit rapport beschrijft de werking van het systeem, de resultaten op 4 bedrijven per gewas, de reacties van de betrokken telers, en een evaluatie van het project. De belangrijkste mogelijkheden om de energie-efficientie van een teelt te verbeteren werden gevonden in verbeterde wijderzetschema

  9. Summary report of the 3. research co-ordination meeting on development of reference input parameter library for nuclear model calculations of nuclear data (Phase 1: Starter File)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oblozinsky, P.

    1997-09-01

    The report contains the summary of the third and the last Research Co-ordination Meeting on ''Development of Reference Input Parameter Library for Nuclear Model Calculations of Nuclear Data (Phase I: Starter File)'', held at the ICTP, Trieste, Italy, from 26 to 29 May 1997. Details are given on the status of the Handbook and the Starter File - two major results of the project. (author)

  10. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  11. Variação da evapotranspiração de referência calculada em diferentes intervalos de tempo Variation of the reference evapotranspiration calculated for different times interval

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro J. Back

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Valores de evapotranspiração de referência foram calculados em intervalos de um, cinco, dez, quinze dias e mensal. Foram utilizados dados meteorológicos da Estação Meteorológica de Urussanga - SC (latitude 28°31'S, longitude 49°19'W referentes ao período de 1981 a 2004. A evapotranspiração de referência foi calculada pelo método de Penman-Monteith com base nas médias das variáveis meteorológicas dos diferentes períodos estudados. Observou-se que não houve diferenças significativas nas médias de evapotranspiração calculadas nos diversos intervalos de tempo. No entanto, houve diferenças significativas na dispersão dos valores em torno da média. Para valores diários, foi obtido coeficiente de variação (C.V. entre 30 e 40%, e para valores mensais, variou entre 6% e 12%. Observou-se, também, que os dados de evapotranspiração se ajustaram à distribuição Beta, e assim foram estimados, para cada mês, os valores de evapotranspiração de referência com probabilidades de 5; 10; 25; 50; 75; 90 e 95%.Reference evapotranspiration values were calculated for time interval of one, five, ten, fifteen days and monthly. Meteorological series data from 1981 to 2004 from Urussanga Weather Station (latitude 28°31'S, longitude 49°19'W were used to calculate reference evapotranspiration with Penman-Monteith method with mean of meteorological variables for every time intervals. No difference was observed in average reference evapotranspiration computed in all time steps. However, some difference in variations of data around the average was observed. For daily value, the variation coefficient varies from 30 to 40% and for monthly values de coefficient variation varied from 6 to 12%. It was observed that the reference evapotranspirations adjusted very well to Beta distribution probability, and the reference evapotranspiration with probability of 5; 10; 25; 50; 75; 90 e 95% was estimated.

  12. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  13. Calculated organ doses using Monte Carlo simulations in a reference male phantom undergoing HDR brachytherapy applied to localized prostate carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candela-Juan, Cristian; Perez-Calatayud, Jose; Ballester, Facundo; Rivard, Mark J.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this study was to obtain equivalent doses in radiosensitive organs (aside from the bladder and rectum) when applying high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy to a localized prostate carcinoma using 60 Co or 192 Ir sources. These data are compared with results in a water phantom and with expected values in an infinite water medium. A comparison with reported values from proton therapy and intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) is also provided. Methods: Monte Carlo simulations in Geant4 were performed using a voxelized phantom described in International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publication 110, which reproduces masses and shapes from an adult reference man defined in ICRP Publication 89. Point sources of 60 Co or 192 Ir with photon energy spectra corresponding to those exiting their capsules were placed in the center of the prostate, and equivalent doses per clinical absorbed dose in this target organ were obtained in several radiosensitive organs. Values were corrected to account for clinical circumstances with the source located at various positions with differing dwell times throughout the prostate. This was repeated for a homogeneous water phantom. Results: For the nearest organs considered (bladder, rectum, testes, small intestine, and colon), equivalent doses given by 60 Co source were smaller (8%–19%) than from 192 Ir. However, as the distance increases, the more penetrating gamma rays produced by 60 Co deliver higher organ equivalent doses. The overall result is that effective dose per clinical absorbed dose from a 60 Co source (11.1 mSv/Gy) is lower than from a 192 Ir source (13.2 mSv/Gy). On the other hand, equivalent doses were the same in the tissue and the homogeneous water phantom for those soft tissues closer to the prostate than about 30 cm. As the distance increased, the differences of photoelectric effect in water and soft tissue, and appearance of other materials such as air, bone, or lungs, produced

  14. Determination and calculation of hazardous incident scenarios in accordance with the 3rd hazardous incident administrative instruction. Vol. 2; Ermittlung und Berechnung von Stoerfallablaufszenarien nach Massgabe der 3. Stoerfallverwaltungsvorschrift. Bd. 2: Berechnungsmethoden, aktuelle Modelle und Modellgleichungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaiser, W; Rogazewski, P; Schindler, M [TUeV Anlagentechnik GmbH, Berlin-Schoeneberg (Germany). Unternehmensgruppe TUeV Rheinland/Berlin-Brandenburg; Acikalin, A; Albrecht, M; Lambert, M; Steinbach, J [Technische Univ. Berlin (Germany)

    2000-07-01

    At present there are used various of procedures, calculation methods, models and model equations for hazardous incident scenarios. The procedure on principle is varying often. This guideline explains in one main part and six appendixes the methodical procedure to select specifications and assumptions on hazardous incident scenarios and their processing. Hazardous incident scenarios lead to information on emergency preparedness planning. Both general viewpoints and possibilities are shown, how to find necessary basic assumptions on a hazardous incident scenario from information on hazardous substances, on comparable hazardous incidents and on conditions of the site and the plant. Appendixes deal with precise instructions distinguished between substance release, explosion and fire (app. 1: Assessment of source terms, app. 2: Assessment of dispersion, app. 3: Assessment of effects). Appendix 4 gives explanations to appendixes 1, 2 and 3. Appendix 5 contains a collection of 15 examples of hazardous incident scenarios, which illustrate and comment the methodical procedure. Appendix 6 describes and comments software available on German market which assists the calculating of hazardous incidents. Volume 2 determines procedures with regard to methods of calculation, current models and model equations from scientists point of view. (orig.) [German] Derzeit wird eine Vielzahl von Vorgehensweisen, Berechnungsmethoden, Modellen und Modellgleichungen fuer Stoerfallablaufszenarien verwendet. Das prinzipielle Vorgehen ist haeufig unterschiedlich. Dieser Leitfaden enthaelt in einem Hauptteil und sechs Anhaengen das methodische Vorgehen zur Auswahl von Angaben und Annahmen fuer Stoerfallablaufszenarien sowie deren Bearbeitung. Stoerfallablaufszenarien fuehren zu Angaben fuer die Gefahrenabwehrplanung. Fuer das Ableiten von Stoerfallablaufszenarien sind sowohl allgemeine Gesichtspunkte als auch Moeglichkeiten dargelegt, wie man aus Angaben zu Gefahrstoffen, zu vergleichbaren

  15. Determination and calculation of hazardous incident scenarios in accordance with the 3rd hazardous incident administrative instruction. Vol. 1; Ermittlung und Berechnung von Stoerfallablaufszenarien nach Massgabe der 3. Stoerfallverwaltungsvorschrift. Bd. 1: Methodischer Teil zum Erarbeiten von Stoerfallablaufszenarien

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaiser, W.; Rogazewski, P.; Schindler, M. [TUeV Anlagentechnik GmbH, Berlin-Schoeneberg (Germany). Unternehmensgruppe TUeV Rheinland/Berlin-Brandenburg; Acikalin, A.; Albrecht, M.; Lambert, M.; Steinbach, J. [Technische Univ. Berlin (Germany)

    2000-07-01

    At present there are used various procedures, calculation methods, models and model equations for hazardous incident scenarios. The procedure on principle is varying often. This guideline explains in one main part and six appendixes the methodical procedure to select specifications and assumptions on hazardous incident scenarios and their processing. Hazardous incident scenarios lead to information on emergency preparedness planning. Both general viewpoints and possibilities are shown, how to find necessary basic assumptions on a hazardous incident scenario from information on hazardous substances, on comparable hazardous incidents and on conditions of the site and the plant. Appendixes deal with precise instructions distinguished between substance release, explosion and fire (App. 1: Assessment of source terms, App. 2: Assessment of dispersion, App. 3: Assessment of effects). Appendix 4 gives explanations to appendixes 1, 2 and 3. Appendix 5 contains a collection of 15 examples of hazardous incident scenarios, which illustrate and comment the methodical procedure. Appendix 6 describes and comments software available on German market which assists the calculating of hazardous incidents. Volume 2 determines procedures with regard to methods of calculation, current models and model equations from scientists' point of view. (orig.) [German] Derzeit wird eine Vielzahl von Vorgehensweisen, Berechnungsmethoden, Modellen und Modellgleichungen fuer Stoerfallablaufszenarien verwendet. Das prinzipielle Vorgehen ist haeufig unterschiedlich. Dieser Leitfaden enthaelt in einem Hauptteil und sechs Anhaengen das methodische Vorgehen zur Auswahl von Angaben und Annahmen fuer Stoerfallablaufszenarien sowie deren Bearbeitung. Stoerfallablaufszenarien fuehren zu Angaben fuer die Gefahrenabwehrplanung. Fuer das Ableiten von Stoerfallablaufszenarien sind sowohl allgemeine Gesichtspunkte als auch Moeglichkeiten dargelegt, wie man aus Angaben zu Gefahrstoffen, zu vergleichbaren

  16. Computational modeling of the mathematical dummy of the Brazilian woman for calculations of internal dosimetry and ends of comparison of the fractions absorbed specific with the woman reference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ximenes, Edmir

    2006-01-01

    Tools for dosimetric calculations are of the utmost importance for the basic principles of radiological protection, not only in nuclear medicine, but also in other scientific calculations. In this work a mathematical model of the Brazilian woman is developed in order to be used as a basis for calculations of Specific Absorbed Fractions (SAFs) in internal organs and in the skeleton, in accord with the objectives of diagnosis or therapy in nuclear medicine. The model developed here is similar in form to that of Snyder, but modified to be more relevant to the case of the Brazilian woman. To do this, the formalism of the Monte Carlo method was used by means of the ALGAM- 97 R computational code. As a contribution to the objectives of this thesis, we developed the computational system cSAF - consultation for Specific Absorbed Fractions (cFAE from Portuguese acronym) - which furnishes several 'look-up' facilities for the research user. The dialogue interface with the operator was planned following current practices in the utilization of event-oriented languages. This interface permits the user to navigate by means of the reference models, choose the source organ, the energy desired, and receive an answer through an efficient and intuitive dialogue. The system furnishes, in addition to the data referring to the Brazilian woman, data referring to the model of Snyder and to the model of the Brazilian man. The system makes available not only individual data to the SAFs of the three models, but also a comparison among them. (author)

  17. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  18. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  19. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  20. Declination Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Declination is calculated using the current International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model. Declination is calculated using the current World Magnetic Model...

  1. Calculations of non-adiabatic couplings within equation-of-motion coupled-cluster framework: Theory, implementation, and validation against multi-reference methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faraji, Shirin; Matsika, Spiridoula; Krylov, Anna I.

    2018-01-01

    We report an implementation of non-adiabatic coupling (NAC) forces within the equation-of-motion coupled-cluster with single and double excitations (EOM-CCSD) framework via the summed-state approach. Using illustrative examples, we compare NAC forces computed with EOM-CCSD and multi-reference (MR) wave functions (for selected cases, we also consider configuration interaction singles). In addition to the magnitude of the NAC vectors, we analyze their direction, which is important for the calculations of the rate of non-adiabatic transitions. Our benchmark set comprises three doublet radical-cations (hexatriene, cyclohexadiene, and uracil), neutral uracil, and sodium-doped ammonia clusters. When the characters of the states agree among different methods, we observe good agreement between the respective NAC vectors, both in the Franck-Condon region and away. In the cases of large discrepancies between the methods, the disagreement can be attributed to the difference in the states' character, which, in some cases, is very sensitive to electron correlation, both within single-reference and multi-reference frameworks. The numeric results confirm that the accuracy of NAC vectors depends critically on the quality of the underlying wave functions. Within their domain of applicability, EOM-CC methods provide a viable alternative to MR approaches.

  2. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Traffic emission modelling. Model comparision and alternative scenarios. Sub-report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen; Joerss, Wolfram

    2013-01-01

    The modeling of the reference scenario and the various reduction scenarios in PAREST was based on the Central System of Emissions (CSE) (CSE, 2007). Emissions from road traffic were calculated by using the traffic emission model TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) and fed into the CSE. The version TREMOD 4.17 has been used. The resulting emission levels in PAREST reference scenario were supplemented by the emission-reducing effect of the implementation of the future Euro 5 and 6 emission standards for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles in combination with the truck toll extension. [de

  3. Development of Xi'an-CI package – applying the hole–particle symmetry in multi-reference electronic correlation calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suo, Bingbing; Lei, Yibo; Han, Huixian; Wang, Yubin

    2018-04-01

    This mini-review introduces our works on the Xi'an-CI (configuration interaction) package using graphical unitary group approach (GUGA). Taking advantage of the hole-particle symmetry in GUGA, the Galfand states used to span the CI space are classified into CI subspaces according to the number of holes and particles, and the coupling coefficients used to calculate Hamiltonian matrix elements could be factorised into the segment factors in the hole, active and external spaces. An efficient multi-reference CI with single and double excitations (MRCISD) algorithm is thus developed that reduces the storage requirement and increases the number of correlated electrons significantly. The hole-particle symmetry also gives rise to a doubly contracted MRCISD approach. Moreover, the internally contracted Gelfand states are defined within the CI subspace arising from the hole-particle symmetry, which makes the implementation of internally contracted MRCISD in the framework of GUGA possible. In addition to MRCISD, the development of multi-reference second-order perturbation theory (MRPT2) also benefits from the hole-particle symmetry. A configuration-based MRPT2 algorithm is proposed and extended to the multi-state n-electron valence-state second-order perturbation theory.

  4. The calculated reference value of the tubular extraction rate in infants and children. An attempt to use a new regression equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Nami; Sugai Yukio; Komatani, Akio; Yamaguchi, Koichi; Takahashi, Kazuei

    1999-01-01

    This study was designed to investigate the empirical tubular extraction rate (TER) of the normal renal function in childhood and then propose a new equation to obtain TER theoretically. The empirical TER was calculated using Russell's method for determination of single-sample plasma clearance and 99m Tc-MAG 3 in 40 patients with renal disease younger than 10 years of age who were classified as having normal renal function using diagnostic criteria defined by the Paediatric Task Group of EANM. First, we investigated the relationships of the empirical value of absolute TER to age, body weight, body surface area (BSA) and distribution volume. Next we investigated the relationships of the empirical value of BSA corrected TER to age, body weight, BSA and distribution volume. Linear relationship was indicated between the absolute TER and each body dimensional factors, especially regarding to BSA, its correlation coefficient was 0.90 (p value). The BSA-corrected TER showed a logarithmic relationship with BSA, but linear regression did not show any significant correlation. Therefore, it was thought that the normal value of TER could be calculated theoretically using the body surface area, and here we proposed the following linear regression equation; Theoretical TER (ml/min/1.73 m 2 )=(-39.8+257.2 x BSA)/BSA/1.73. The theoretical TER could be one of the reference values of the renal function in the period of the renal maturation. (author)

  5. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  6. Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data for application in a hydrological model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Sperna Weiland

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Potential evaporation (PET is one of the main inputs of hydrological models. Yet, there is limited consensus on which PET equation is most applicable in hydrological climate impact assessments. In this study six different methods to derive global scale reference PET daily time series from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR data are compared: Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor and original and re-calibrated versions of the Hargreaves and Blaney-Criddle method. The calculated PET time series are (1 evaluated against global monthly Penman-Monteith PET time series calculated from CRU data and (2 tested on their usability for modeling of global discharge cycles.

    A major finding is that for part of the investigated basins the selection of a PET method may have only a minor influence on the resulting river flow. Within the hydrological model used in this study the bias related to the PET method tends to decrease while going from PET, AET and runoff to discharge calculations. However, the performance of individual PET methods appears to be spatially variable, which stresses the necessity to select the most accurate and spatially stable PET method. The lowest root mean squared differences and the least significant deviations (95% significance level between monthly CFSR derived PET time series and CRU derived PET were obtained for a cell-specific re-calibrated Blaney-Criddle equation. However, results show that this re-calibrated form is likely to be unstable under changing climate conditions and less reliable for the calculation of daily time series. Although often recommended, the Penman-Monteith equation applied to the CFSR data did not outperform the other methods in a evaluation against PET derived with the Penman-Monteith equation from CRU data. In arid regions (e.g. Sahara, central Australia, US deserts, the equation resulted in relatively low PET values and, consequently, led to relatively high discharge values for dry basins (e

  7. Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Evaluation of emission reduction scenarios using chemical transport calculations. Traffic model TREMOD and traffic model TREMOVE. Sub-report.; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. Bewertung von Emissionsminderungsszenarien mit Hilfe chemischer Transportberechnungen. Verkehrsmodell TREMOD und Verkehrsmodell TREMOVE. Teilbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stern, Rainer [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie, Troposphaerische Umweltforschung

    2013-06-15

    The calculation of transport emissions in PAREST project is made with traffic model TREMOD 4.17 (Transport Emission Model) used by the Federal Environment Agency based on the emission factors of HBEFA 2.1 (Handbook on Emission Factors for Road Traffic). For the PAREST reference scenario 2010-2020 (CLE scenario, ''current legislation'') TREMOD 4.17 was changed (TREMOD 4.17M) in such way that measures ''Introduction of Euro 5 and 6 limit levels for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles'', ''Introduction of a limit value stage Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles'' and ''Existing truck tolls including promoting the purchase of low-emission heavy duty vehicles'' are integrated in the reference scenario and are no longer treated as an additional measure (Joerss et al., 2010). As an alternative to TREMOD 4.17M emission data sets were created for the project, in which the traffic emissions were calculated with the TREMOVE, version 2.7 (Kugler et al., 2010). TREMOVE is the traffic model used by the European Commission for the development of traffic scenarios. This report documents the differences between the immission distributions of PM10 and NO{sub 2}, resulting from the application of the European transport model. Considered are the reference 2005, which describes the current state for the year 2005 and the 2020 reference that describes the emission state in 2020 to be achieved. [German] Die Berechnung der Verkehrsemissionen erfolgt im PAREST-Projekt mit dem vom Umweltbundesamt verwendeten Verkehrsmodell TREMOD 4.17 (Transport Emission Model) auf der Grundlage der Emissionsfaktoren des HBEFA 2.1. Fuer das PAREST-Referenzszenario 2010-2020 (CLE-Szenario, ''current legislation'') wurde TREMOD 4.17 so veraendert (TREMOD 4.17M), dass die Massnahmen ''Einfuehrung der Grenzwertstufen Euro 5 und 6 fuer Pkw und leichte Nutzfahrzeuge'', &apos

  8. Accident scenarios triggered by lightning strike on atmospheric storage tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Necci, Amos; Argenti, Francesca; Landucci, Gabriele; Cozzani, Valerio

    2014-01-01

    Severe Natech accidents may be triggered by lightning strike affecting storage tanks containing relevant inventories of hazardous materials. The present study focused on the identification of event sequences and accident scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks. Reference event trees, validated using past accident analysis, are provided to describe the specific accident chains identified, accounting for reference protection and mitigation safety barriers usually adopted in current industrial practice. An overall methodology was outlined to allow the calculation of the expected frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric storage tanks, taking into account the expected performance of available safety barriers. The methodology was applied to a case study in order to better understand the data that may be obtained and their importance in the framework of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and of the risk management of industrial facilities with respect to external hazards due to natural events. - Highlights: • Event sequences following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks were identified. • Reference event trees including standard safety barriers were obtained. • Safety barriers applied in industrial practice were assessed to quantify event trees. • Frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on tanks were calculated. • Natech scenarios caused by lightning have an important influence on risk profiles

  9. The Scenario Planning Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

  10. Different percentages of false-positive results obtained using five methods for the calculation of reference change values based on simulated normal and ln-normal distributions of data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Flemming; Petersen, Per Hyltoft; Fraser, Callum G

    2016-01-01

    a homeostatic set point that follows a normal (Gaussian) distribution. This set point (or baseline in steady-state) should be estimated from a set of previous samples, but, in practice, decisions based on reference change value are often based on only two consecutive results. The original reference change value......-positive results. The aim of this study was to investigate false-positive results using five different published methods for calculation of reference change value. METHODS: The five reference change value methods were examined using normally and ln-normally distributed simulated data. RESULTS: One method performed...... best in approaching the theoretical false-positive percentages on normally distributed data and another method performed best on ln-normally distributed data. The commonly used reference change value method based on two results (without use of estimated set point) performed worst both on normally...

  11. Calculation and construction of radioisotopic radiation chemical installations. [Book (reference text); In Russian]. Raschet i konstruirovanie radioizotopnykh radiatsionno-khimicheskikh ustanovok

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kulisha, E E

    1975-01-01

    A discussion is given of the development of radiation sources and the uses of gamma sources. The chemical and radiation characteristics of the sources are considered, and the fabrication methods are described for different types of sources used for radiation-induced chemical processes in condensed phase and in two-phase systems. Technological dosimetry, industrial and radiation safety, and economic aspects of gamma sources are examined. The text serves as a reference for physicists, chemistry technologists, engineers, and other scientific workers.

  12. Columnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer – first results from a feasibility study Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Hellmuth

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Paper I of four papers, a revised columnar high-order model to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL was proposed. In Paper II, the model capability to predict first-, second- and third-order moments of meteorological variables in the CBL was demonstrated using available observational data. In the present Paper III, the high-order modelling concept is extended to sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as to aerosol dynamics. Based on the previous CBL simulation, a feasibility study is performed using two "clean air mass" scenarios with an emission source at the ground but low aerosol background concentration. Such scenarios synoptically correspond to the advection of fresh post-frontal air in an anthropogenically influenced region. The aim is to evaluate the time-height evolution of ultrafine condensation nuclei (UCNs and to elucidate the interactions between meteorological and physicochemical variables in a CBL column. The scenarios differ in the treatment of new particle formation (NPF, whereas homogeneous nucleation according to the classical nucleation theory (CNT is considered. The first scenario considers nucleation of a binary system consisting of water vapour and sulphuric acid (H2SO4 vapour, the second one nucleation of a ternary system additionally involving ammonia (NH3. Here, the two synthetic scenarios are discussed in detail, whereas special attention is payed to the role of turbulence in the formation of the typical UCN burst behaviour, that can often be observed in the surface layer. The intercomparison of the two scenarios reveals large differences in the evolution of the UCN number concentration in the surface layer as well as in the time-height cross-sections of first-order moments and double correlation terms. Although in both cases the occurrence of NPF bursts could be simulated, the burst characteristics and genesis of the bursts are completely different. It is demonstrated

  13. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  14. State of the art in the calculation of a reference motion for design purposes. Modification of bedrock motion by superficial, young deposit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadioun, B.

    1986-10-01

    Engineering sismology is aimed, among others, at predicting a strong reference motion for the site of a given critical structure to be used in the design of said installation. A common practice, when modal analysis is performed in view of the anti-seismic design of structures, is to use, as the input motion, a set of spectra with progressive values of damping. Such a practice is discussed. Parallel to those empirical predictions, attention has been drawn on strong motion studies. Progress has been made in the theoretical simulation of seismic sources and wave propagation. Reliability of inverse problems relating to type of rocks is discussed. Attempts of solutions are recalled

  15. Evaluation of ETOG-3Q/ETOG-3, FLANGE-II, XLACS, NJOY and linear/recent/groupie codes for calculations of resonance and reference cross sections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anaf, J.; Chalhoub, E.S.

    1991-01-01

    The NJOY and LINEAR/RECENT/GROUPIE calculational procedures for the resolved and unresolved resonance contributions and background cross sections are evaluated. Elastic scattering, fission and capture multigroup cross sections generated by these codes and the previously validated ETOG-3Q, ETOG-3, FLANGE-II and XLACS are compared. Constant weighting function and zero Kelvin temperature are considered. Discrepancies are presented and analyzed. (author)

  16. Calculation and analysis of a HTR-pebble-bed reference core in the low enriched (U, Pu)- and (U, Th)-cycle with the new modular programme system DRACULA-II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffmann, K.

    1975-12-01

    A short description of the programme system is given. Investigations are undertaken on the burn-up and temperature dependence of the resonance adsorption and the flux lowering in a fuel ball as well as the influence of the heterogeneous fuel distribution in a ball-shaped fuel element on the neutron spectrum. The feedback of these effects on the burn-up behaviour is analysed in the subsequent calculations of the above-mentioned reference cores. Beyond this a comparison of the DRAKULA II results with the VSOP calculations for these reference cores is performed and discussed. Especially the new graphical plotting possibility has to be mentioned for the burn-up and load condition of individual fuel element balls during their flow through the core in addition with the netto balance of the isotope vector at their removal from the reactor. (orig.) [de

  17. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  18. The criteria for setting the natural gas reference price for purposes of government take calculation; Os criterios para fixacao do preco de referencia do gas natural para fins de calculo das participacoes governamentais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Flavio Augusto Pimentel de; Rosa, Renata Gualberto Cordeiro [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The Petroleum Law states that the concession contract will also have provisions regarding the government takes established by the bid tender. However, the criteria for calculating the value of Royalties are set forth in the Decree 2.705/98, enacted to set such criteria, taking into account the volumes of production and the reference prices for oil and natural gas. The following aspects are analyzed in this paper: the method for calculating the volumes subject to the impact of Royalties; definition of the reference price for natural gas, the general rule for setting up the reference price in case the sale was made at market price; the special rule in case the sale was not made on a market basis, in case there is no sale or in case of breach of the conditions set in that Decree; and the settlement of the reference price in situations where only part of the volumes produced are sold on contracts that meet the requirements of the Decree. In conclusion the problems caused by gaps in legislation will be highlighted, particularly with regard to concessions granted to consortia as well as the inconsistencies between the applicable legislation, which may provide different analysis, including by the ANP, according to the features of each case. (author)

  19. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  20. Some factors in the calculation of the neutron intensity from (α,n) reactions with reference to the assay of special nuclear materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    West, D.

    1985-07-01

    The application of neutron coincidence counting to the assay of special nuclear material involves a major correction for neutron multiplication. The correction commonly used at present requires an accurate knowledge of the intensity ratio of neutrons from (α,n) reactions to those from spontaneous fission. This paper covers various factors, which need to be evaluated in order to assess their importance, in the calculation of (α,n) neutron production using measured thick target yields. They include: accuracy of (α,n) thick target yield measurements; errors introduced by deriving yields in compounds from the measured yields in the constituents and vice-versa; the likely effect of neglecting the difference of α-particle stopping power between Pu and U on the calculated neutron yield from mixed oxide fuel pellets; the intensity of neutrons produced from 1 to 2% of Al used to alloy plutonium metal; the intensity of neutrons produced in Al, used as canning material, from α-particles escaping from the surface layers of oxide or metal fuel; and neutron production from oxygen in the air spaces of powdered PuO 2 prior to sintering. (author)

  1. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  2. Computational modeling of the mathematical phantoms of the Brazilian woman to internal dosimetry calculations and for comparison of the absorbed fractions with specific reference women

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ximenes, Edmir; Guimaraes, Maria Ines C. C.

    2008-01-01

    The theme of this work is the study of the concept of mathematical dummy - also called phantoms - used in internal dosimetry and radiation protection, from the perspective of computer simulations. In this work he developed the mathematical phantom of the Brazilian woman, to be used as the basis of calculations of Specific Absorbed Fractions (AEDs) in the body's organs and skeleton by virtue of goals with regarding the diagnosis or therapy in nuclear medicine. The phantom now developed is similar, in form, to Snyder phantom making it more realistic for the anthropomorphic conditions of Brazilian women. For so we used the Monte Carlo method of formalism, through computer modeling. As a contribution to the objectives of this study, it was developed and implemented the computer system cFAE - consultation Fraction Specific Absorbed, which makes it versatile for the user's query researcher

  3. The calculation of dose from external photon exposures using reference human phantoms and Monte Carlo methods. Pt. 7. Organ doses due to parallel and environmental exposure geometries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zankl, M. [GSF - Forschungszentrum fuer Umwelt und Gesundheit Neuherberg GmbH, Oberschleissheim (Germany). Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz; Drexler, G. [GSF - Forschungszentrum fuer Umwelt und Gesundheit Neuherberg GmbH, Oberschleissheim (Germany). Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz; Petoussi-Henss, N. [GSF - Forschungszentrum fuer Umwelt und Gesundheit Neuherberg GmbH, Oberschleissheim (Germany). Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz; Saito, K. [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1997-03-01

    This report presents a tabulation of organ and tissue equivalent dose as well as effective dose conversion coefficients, normalised to air kerma free in air, for occupational exposures and environmental exposures of the public to external photon radiation. For occupational exposures, whole-body irradiation with idealised geometries, i.e. broad parallel beams and fully isotropic radiation incidence, is considered. The directions of incidence for the parallel beams are anterior-posterior, posterior-anterior, left lateral, right lateral and a full 360 rotation around the body`s longitudinal axis. The influence of beam divergence on the body doses is also considered as well as the dependence of effective dose on the angle of radiation incidence. Regarding exposure of the public to environmental sources, three source geometries are considered: exposure from a radioactive cloud, from ground contamination and from the natural radionuclides distributed homogeneously in the ground. The precise angular and energy distributions of the gamma rays incident on the human body were taken into account. The organ dose conversion coefficients given in this catalogue were calculated using a Monte Carlo code simulating the photon transport in mathematical models of an adult male and an adult female, respectively. Conversion coefficients are given for the equivalent dose of 23 organs and tissues as well as for effective dose and the equivalent dose of the so-called `remainder`. The organ equivalent dose conversion coefficients are given separately for the adult male and female models and - as arithmetic mean of the conversion coefficients of both - for an average adult. Fitted data of the coefficients are presented in tables; the primary raw data as resulting from the Monte Carlo calculation are shown in figures together with the fitted data. (orig.)

  4. The calculation of dose from external photon exposures using reference human phantoms and Monte Carlo methods. Pt. 7. Organ doses due to parallel and environmental exposure geometries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zankl, M.

    1997-03-01

    This report presents a tabulation of organ and tissue equivalent dose as well as effective dose conversion coefficients, normalised to air kerma free in air, for occupational exposures and environmental exposures of the public to external photon radiation. For occupational exposures, whole-body irradiation with idealised geometries, i.e. broad parallel beams and fully isotropic radiation incidence, is considered. The directions of incidence for the parallel beams are anterior-posterior, posterior-anterior, left lateral, right lateral and a full 360 rotation around the body's longitudinal axis. The influence of beam divergence on the body doses is also considered as well as the dependence of effective dose on the angle of radiation incidence. Regarding exposure of the public to environmental sources, three source geometries are considered: exposure from a radioactive cloud, from ground contamination and from the natural radionuclides distributed homogeneously in the ground. The precise angular and energy distributions of the gamma rays incident on the human body were taken into account. The organ dose conversion coefficients given in this catalogue were calculated using a Monte Carlo code simulating the photon transport in mathematical models of an adult male and an adult female, respectively. Conversion coefficients are given for the equivalent dose of 23 organs and tissues as well as for effective dose and the equivalent dose of the so-called 'remainder'. The organ equivalent dose conversion coefficients are given separately for the adult male and female models and - as arithmetic mean of the conversion coefficients of both - for an average adult. Fitted data of the coefficients are presented in tables; the primary raw data as resulting from the Monte Carlo calculation are shown in figures together with the fitted data. (orig.)

  5. Scenarios catalog for the graphical console for analysis of severe accidents visualization of OEs, NAEs and calculation of source term of the NPP-LV; Catalogo de escenarios para la consola grafica para analisis de accidentes severos visualizacion de OEs, NAEs y calculo del termino fuente de la CLV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandoval V, S. [Instituto Nacional de Electricidad y Energias Limpias, Reforma 113, Col. Palmira, 62490 Cuernavaca, Morelos (Mexico); Mendoza R, M. E.; Tijerina S, F.; Garcia C, T., E-mail: manuel.mendoza@cfe.gob.mx [CFE, Central Nucleoelectrica Laguna Verde, Carretera Federal Cardel-Nautla Km 42.5, 91476 Municipio Alto Lucero, Veracruz (Mexico)

    2016-09-15

    A nuclear power plant is operated at all times within the design criteria of structures, systems and components, and according to the operation technical specifications. For different areas of work of a nuclear power plant is necessary to carry out practices in which is useful to have the prediction of the thermo-hydraulic and radiological progression of scenarios that imply exceeding that design bases, even reaching the damage of the fuel in different degree. During the exercises and drills of the External Plan of Emergency Response, the projection of doses is done to exercise the different tasks of the plan. To make the projection of doses is required to have the radiological source term of the scenario on which is practiced. Because of this, was identified the convenience of having a catalog of scenarios for which the radiological source term was calculated. In 2004, a first version of the catalog was produced for a power of 2027 MW, and in 2011 the catalog was updated for extended power conditions, 2317 MW. Both versions were made using the severe accident simulator MAAP-3B. That catalog consists of a form and an optical storage device. The form contains tables and figures in which the characteristics of the scenario to be practiced are searched and the electronic files of the corresponding radiological source term are located in the storage device. Due to the recent development of the graphical console for analysis of severe accidents, visualization of OEs, NAEs and calculation of the source term for the nuclear power plant of Laguna Verde (NPP-LV) CoGrAAS, the catalog printed was replaced by an electronic catalog for the CoGrAAS. The new catalog retains the philosophy of the previous catalog, constituted by a wide collection of scenarios that involve different circumstances and phenomena, that can be used to practice different tasks during training exercises or simulacrums, and combined with the following advantages: the scenario selection is made from an

  6. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  7. High energy photon reference for radiation protection: technical design of the LINAC beam and ionization chambers; and calculation of monoenergetic conversion coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dusciac D.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we present the results of the first part of a research project aimed at offering a complete response to dosimeters providers and nuclear physicists’ demands for high-energy (6 – 9 MeV photon beams for radiation protection purposes. Classical facilities allowing the production of high-energy photonic radiation (proton accelerators, nuclear reactors are very rare and need large investment for development and use. A novel solution is proposed, consisting in the use of a medical linear accelerator, allowing a significant decrease of all costs.Using Monte Carlo simulations (MCNP5 and PENELOPE codes, a specifically designed electron-photon conversion target allowing for obtaining a high energy photon beam (with an average energy weighted by fluence of about 6 MeV has been built for radiation protection purposes. Due to the specific design of the target, this “realistic” radiation protection high-energy photon beam presents a uniform distribution of air kerma rate at a distance of 1 m, over a 30 × 30 cm2 surface. Two graphite cavity ionizing chambers for ionometric measurements have been built. For one of these chambers, the charge collection volume has been measured allowing for its use as a primary standard. The second ionizing chamber is used as a transfer standard; as such it has been calibrated in a 60Co beam, and in the high energy photon beam for radiation protection.The measurements with these ionizing chambers allowed for an evaluation of the air kerma rate in the LINAC based high-energy photon beam for radiation protection: the values cover a range between 36 mGy/h and 210 mGy/h, compatible with radiation protection purposes.Finally, using Monte Carlo simulations, conversion coefficients from air kerma to dose equivalent quantities have been calculated in the range between 10 keV and 22.4 MeV, for the spectral distribution of the fluence corresponding to the beam produced by the linear accelerator of the LNE-LNHB.

  8. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

  9. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  10. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  11. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  12. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  13. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  14. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  15. Calculations of an unsteady flow through a hydraulic axial turbine with reference to interaction between stator and rotor; Instationaere Berechnung einer hydraulischen Axialturbine unter Beruecksichtigung der Interaktion zwischen Leit- und Laufrad

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, C.

    2001-07-01

    The objective of this study is the development of an algorithm enabling coupling of nonmatching computational grids to carry out calculations of an unsteady flow through a hydraulic axial turbine with reference to interaction between stator and rotor. The algorithm should offer the possibility to operate the computational grids in a fixed position relative to each other as well as in relative movement. Furthermore, the calculation should be feasible with separate grids in parallel and different frames of reference. Employing selected examples this method is investigated in detail the results are compared with performed measurements. The unsteady numerical examination of the coupling process is carried out with different examples; especially the interaction effects between stator, rotor and draft tube of a hydraulic axial turbine are observed. In addition, the effect of tip clearance of the mean flow is described. Extensive model tests using the axial turbine have been performed at the Institute for Fluid Mechanics and Hydraulic Machinery, IHS. Flow time dependent velocities have been measured with a Laser Doppler Velocimeter placed at midspan of the blading. Periodical changes in static pressure have been recorded at different locations near the wall of the turbine casing. These measurements serve as reference for the comparison with results derived from the unsteady calculations. The confrontation of the time-dependent fluctuations of the flow quantities and the calculation of the efficiency of the turbine resulting from the simulation results allow a comparison in absolute terms. (orig.) [German] Fuer die instationaere Berechnung einer hydraulischen Axialturbine unter Beruecksichtigung der Interaktion zwischen Leit- und Laufrad wird ein Algorithmus zum Koppeln von nichtpassenden Berechnungsnetzen entwickelt. Diese Berechnungsnetze sollen zueinander ortsfest sein oder auch eine Relativbewegung zueinander haben koennen. Sie sollen ausserdem und in unterschiedlichen

  16. Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Evaluation of emission reduction scenarios using chemical transport calculations. PM10- and PM2.5-reduction potentials by package of measures for further immission reduction in Germany. Sub-report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, Rainer

    2013-01-01

    This report documents the effects of additional emission control measures the PM10 and PM2.5 air quality in Germany (PM = particulate matter). The immission effects of the planned measures were calculated with the Chemistry-Aerosol-Transport Model REM CALGRID (RCG). [de

  17. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Evaluation of emission reduction scenarios using chemical transport calculations. NO2- and O3 reduction potentials of package of measures for further reduction of immissions in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, Rainer

    2013-01-01

    This report documents the effects of additional emission control measures the NO 2 - and ozone-air quality in Germany (PM = particulate matter). The immission effects of the planned measures were calculated with the Chemistry-Aerosol-Transport Model REM CALGRID (RCG). [de

  18. Scenarios for the transportation sector's energy consumption in Denmark. Focus on road transport. Documentation report; Scenarier for transportsektorens energiforbrug i Danmark. Med fokus paa vejtransporten. Dokumentationsrapport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hethey, J.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A.; Lindboe, H.H.

    2011-05-15

    The purpose of this project was to make a number of predictions of how the Danish energy consumption for transport purposes may evolve until 2035. The analyses include the total energy consumption for passenger and freight transport and transportation-related energy consumption in the production industry. Air and maritime transport and freight trains are not considered in the analyses. Five scenarios have been calculated, including a reference scenario, three technology scenarios (efficiency, electric vehicle, a biofuel scenario), and a combined scenario. For all scenarios, the development of fuel consumption is calculated and CO{sub 2} emissions both locally and totally are presented. The analyses show that the total energy consumption and total CO{sub 2} emission had a peak in 2007, after which the already registered decrease is likely to continue. This continued decline happens in spite of continued growth in transport services, primarily due to the assumed and expected development of more fuel-efficient cars. (ln)

  19. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  20. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  1. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  2. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  3. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  4. Carrying capacity of U.S. agricultural land: Ten diet scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian J. Peters

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Strategies for environmental sustainability and global food security must account for dietary change. Using a biophysical simulation model we calculated human carrying capacity under ten diet scenarios. The scenarios included two reference diets based on actual consumption and eight “Healthy Diet” scenarios that complied with nutritional recommendations but varied in the level of meat content. We considered the U.S. agricultural land base and accounted for losses, processing conversions, livestock feed needs, suitability of land for crops or grazing, and land productivity. Annual per capita land requirements ranged from 0.13 to 1.08 ha person-1 year-1 across the ten diet scenarios. Carrying capacity varied from 402 to 807 million persons; 1.3 to 2.6 times the 2010 U.S. population. Carrying capacity was generally higher for scenarios with less meat and highest for the lacto-vegetarian diet. However, the carrying capacity of the vegan diet was lower than two of the healthy omnivore diet scenarios. Sensitivity analysis showed that carrying capacity estimates were highly influenced by starting assumptions about the proportion of cropland available for cultivated cropping. Population level dietary change can contribute substantially to meeting future food needs, though ongoing agricultural research and sustainable management practices are still needed to assure sufficient production levels.

  5. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

    2014-01-01

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  6. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  7. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  8. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  9. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  10. FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

  11. Optimal primitive reference frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, David

    2011-01-01

    We consider the smallest possible directional reference frames allowed and determine the best one can ever do in preserving quantum information in various scenarios. We find that for the preservation of a single spin state, two orthogonal spins are optimal primitive reference frames; and in a product state, they do approximately 22% as well as an infinite-sized classical frame. By adding a small amount of entanglement to the reference frame, this can be raised to 2(2/3) 5 =26%. Under the different criterion of entanglement preservation, a very similar optimal reference frame is found; however, this time it is for spins aligned at an optimal angle of 87 deg. In this case 24% of the negativity is preserved. The classical limit is considered numerically, and indicates under the criterion of entanglement preservation, that 90 deg. is selected out nonmonotonically, with a peak optimal angle of 96.5 deg. for L=3 spins.

  12. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  13. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  14. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  15. Growth references

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buuren, S. van

    2007-01-01

    A growth reference describes the variation of an anthropometric measurement within a group of individuals. A reference is a tool for grouping and analyzing data and provides a common basis for comparing populations.1 A well known type of reference is the age-conditional growth diagram. The

  16. Analysis of global warming stabilization scenarios. The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kainuma, Mikiko; Morita, Tsuneyuki; Masui, Toshihiko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyzes the economic and climatic impacts of the EMF 19 emission scenarios. A reference scenario, three emission scenarios targeting 550 ppmv atmospheric concentration, and three tax scenarios are analyzed. The profiles of energy consumption and economic losses of each policy scenario are compared to the reference scenario. The model also estimates that global mean temperature will increase 1.7-2.9 C in 2100, and the sea level will rise 40-51 cm, compared to the 1990 levels under the EMF scenarios. Impacts on food productivity and malaria infection are estimated to be very severe in some countries in the Asian region

  17. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeblom, K.

    1998-03-01

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  18. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  19. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA. Health Doctor / Hospital Infant expenditure 1000 beds / 1000 mortality / % GDP 1000. India 0.8 0.47 0.8 71. World 2.6 1.5 3.3 54. Developed 6.1 2.8 7.2 6 Countries.

  20. An economically reliable scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  1. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  2. [Reference citation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brkić, Silvija

    2013-01-01

    Scientific and professional papers represent the information basis for scientific research and professional work. References important for the paper should be cited within the text, and listed at the end of the paper. This paper deals with different styles of reference citation. Special emphasis was placed on the Vancouver Style for reference citation in biomedical journals established by the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors. It includes original samples for citing various types of articles, both printed and electronic, as well as recommendations related to reference citation in accordance with the methodology and ethics of scientific research and guidelines for preparing manuscripts for publication.

  3. Hanford groundwater scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

    1977-05-01

    This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

  4. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  5. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  6. Reference Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bivens-Tatum, Wayne

    2006-01-01

    This article presents interesting articles that explore several different areas of reference assessment, including practical case studies and theoretical articles that address a range of issues such as librarian behavior, patron satisfaction, virtual reference, or evaluation design. They include: (1) "Evaluating the Quality of a Chat Service"…

  7. Impact of image noise on gamma index calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, M; Mo, X; Parnell, D; Olivera, G; Galmarini, D; Lu, W

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The Gamma Index defines an asymmetric metric between the evaluated image and the reference image. It provides a quantitative comparison that can be used to indicate sample-wised pass/fail on the agreement of the two images. The Gamma passing/failing rate has become an important clinical evaluation tool. However, the presence of noise in the evaluated and/or reference images may change the Gamma Index, hence the passing/failing rate, and further, clinical decisions. In this work, we systematically studied the impact of the image noise on the Gamma Index calculation. Methods: We used both analytic formulation and numerical calculations in our study. The numerical calculations included simulations and clinical images. Three different noise scenarios were studied in simulations: noise in reference images only, in evaluated images only, and in both. Both white and spatially correlated noises of various magnitudes were simulated. For clinical images of various noise levels, the Gamma Index of measurement against calculation, calculation against measurement, and measurement against measurement, were evaluated. Results: Numerical calculations for both the simulation and clinical data agreed with the analytic formulations, and the clinical data agreed with the simulations. For the Gamma Index of measurement against calculation, its distribution has an increased mean and an increased standard deviation as the noise increases. On the contrary, for the Gamma index of calculation against measurement, its distribution has a decreased mean and stabilized standard deviation as the noise increases. White noise has greater impact on the Gamma Index than spatially correlated noise. Conclusions: The noise has significant impact on the Gamma Index calculation and the impact is asymmetric. The Gamma Index should be reported along with the noise levels in both reference and evaluated images. Reporting of the Gamma Index with switched roles of the images as reference and

  8. Impact of Image Noise on Gamma Index Calculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, M.; Mo, X.; Parnell, D.; Olivera, G.; Galmarini, D.; Lu, W.

    2014-03-01

    Purpose: The Gamma Index defines an asymmetric metric between the evaluated image and the reference image. It provides a quantitative comparison that can be used to indicate sample-wised pass/fail on the agreement of the two images. The Gamma passing/failing rate has become an important clinical evaluation tool. However, the presence of noise in the evaluated and/or reference images may change the Gamma Index, hence the passing/failing rate, and further, clinical decisions. In this work, we systematically studied the impact of the image noise on the Gamma Index calculation. Methods: We used both analytic formulation and numerical calculations in our study. The numerical calculations included simulations and clinical images. Three different noise scenarios were studied in simulations: noise in reference images only, in evaluated images only, and in both. Both white and spatially correlated noises of various magnitudes were simulated. For clinical images of various noise levels, the Gamma Index of measurement against calculation, calculation against measurement, and measurement against measurement, were evaluated. Results: Numerical calculations for both the simulation and clinical data agreed with the analytic formulations, and the clinical data agreed with the simulations. For the Gamma Index of measurement against calculation, its distribution has an increased mean and an increased standard deviation as the noise increases. On the contrary, for the Gamma index of calculation against measurement, its distribution has a decreased mean and stabilized standard deviation as the noise increases. White noise has greater impact on the Gamma Index than spatially correlated noise. Conclusions: The noise has significant impact on the Gamma Index calculation and the impact is asymmetric. The Gamma Index should be reported along with the noise levels in both reference and evaluated images. Reporting of the Gamma Index with switched roles of the images as reference and

  9. BIOMOVS test scenario model comparison using BIOPATH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.A.; Van Dorp, F.

    1986-07-01

    This report presents the results of the irrigation test scenario, presented in the BIOMOVS intercomparison study, calculated by the computer code BIOPATH. This scenario defines a constant release of Tc-99 and Np-237 into groundwater that is used for irrigation. The system of compartments used to model the biosphere is based upon an area in northern Switzerland and is essentially the same as that used in Projekt Gewaehr to assess the radiological impact of a high level waste repository. Two separate irrigation methods are considered, namely ditch and overhead irrigation. Their influence on the resultant activities calculated in the groundwater, soil and different foodproducts, as a function of time, is evaluated. The sensitivity of the model to parameter variations is analysed which allows a deeper understanding of the model chain. These results are assessed subjectively in a first effort to realistically quantify the uncertainty associated with each calculated activity. (author)

  10. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fredriksson, Albin; Bokrantz, Rasmus

    2016-01-01

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ‘easy’ scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic setup uncertainty. (paper)

  11. The Reference Return Ratio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Jeppe; Faber Frandsen, Tove

    2008-01-01

    The paper introduces a new journal impact measure called The Reference Return Ratio (3R). Unlike the traditional Journal Impact Factor (JIF), which is based on calculations of publications and citations, the new measure is based on calculations of bibliographic investments (references) and returns...... (citations). A comparative study of the two measures shows a strong relationship between the 3R and the JIF. Yet, the 3R appears to correct for citation habits, citation dynamics, and composition of document types - problems that typically are raised against the JIF. In addition, contrary to traditional...

  12. Recent references

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramavataram, S.

    1991-01-01

    In support of a continuing program of systematic evaluation of nuclear structure data, the National Nuclear Data Center maintains a complete computer file of references to the nuclear physics literature. Each reference is tagged by a keyword string, which indicates the kinds of data contained in the article. This master file of Nuclear Structure References (NSR) contains complete keyword indexes to literature published since 1969, with partial indexing of older references. Any reader who finds errors in the keyword descriptions is urged to report them to the National Nuclear Data Center so that the master NSR file can be corrected. In 1966, the first collection of Recent References was published as a separate issue of Nuclear Data Sheets. Every four months since 1970, a similar indexed bibliography to new nuclear experiments has been prepared from additions to the NSR file and published. Beginning in 1978, Recent References was cumulated annually, with the third issue completely superseding the two issues previously published during a given year. Due to publication policy changes, cumulation of Recent Reference was discontinued in 1986. The volume and issue number of all the cumulative issues published to date are given. NNDC will continue to respond to individual requests for special bibliographies on nuclear physics topics, in addition to those easily obtained from Recent References. If the required information is available from the keyword string, a reference list can be prepared automatically from the computer files. This service can be provided on request, in exchange for the timely communication of new nuclear physics results (e.g., preprints). A current copy of the NSR file may also be obtained in a standard format on magnetic tape from NNDC. Requests for special searches of the NSR file may also be directed to the National Nuclear Data Center

  13. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  14. Scenario development and analysis in JNC'S second progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, H.; Makino, H.; Miyahara, K.; Naito, M.

    2001-01-01

    Scenario development and analysis is an integral part of the performance assessment in the JNC's second progress report which will be issued by the end of November 1999. A systematic approach has been elaborated to ensure traceability and transparency in overall context of the scenario development and set up of calculation cases for assessment of the repository performance. In this approach, the hierarchical FEP matrix was designed to flexibly identify FEPs at different level of detail. The reasoned argument with clearly defined criteria was then applied for screening and grouping of FEPs to define scenarios in the form of influence diagrams. Scenarios and calculation cases were developed based on the expected safety functions of disposal system and relationships with potential detrimental/favorable factors and perturbation factors. The process to develop scenarios and calculation cases are recorded and managed in a computer system. (authors)

  15. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  16. Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios The WEA Project Team May 2012 SPECIAL REPORT CMU/SEI-2012-SR-020 CERT® Division, Software ...Homeland Security under Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0003 with Carnegie Mellon University for the operation of the Software Engineering Institute, a federally...DISTRIBUTES IT “AS IS.” References herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trade mark, manufacturer, or otherwise

  17. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  18. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  19. Energy scenarios for the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauerman, V.

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

  20. ILC Operating Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barklow, T.; Brau, J.; Fujii, K.; Gao, J.; List, J.; Walker, N.; Yokoya, K.; Collaboration: ILC Parameters Joint Working Group

    2015-06-15

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

  1. Erosion scenarios for Wellenberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemenz, W.

    1993-09-01

    The proposed Wellenberg site for a radioactive waste repository is located between Altzellen in the Engelberger valley and the Oberrickenbach valley, in a thick Valanginian marl series. The marl is generally overlaid with unconsolidated rocks but reaches to the surface in some places. In contrast to the situation in the Oberbauenstock region this marl complex is not protected by an overlying erosion resistant series and exhibits a marked relief. The question therefore arises with respect to the Wellenberg site, to what extent will the marl (i.e. the repository host rock formation) be removed by erosion processes during the 100,000 years interval under consideration and what overburden will remain at the end of this period. This report presents the results of an investigation of the longterm behaviour of the proposed site in respect of those processes of erosion and deposition which can lead to changes in the terrain surface and its location relative to the repository. A wide range of possible scenarios encompassing different developments of climatic conditions during the 100,000 year period of interest, was investigated. In addition to the continuation of the present climate and the occurrence of a new ice age on the scale of the Wuerm glaciation the consequences of altered climatic conditions on erosion removal of the repository overburden were considered. Within the 100,000 year period of interest none of the scenarios considered leads to the exposure of the repository. (author) figs., tabs, refs

  2. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  3. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    -oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized as meaningful mostly (or only) in the social context in which they were developed. It should be noted that those seeking to understand the functions, implications and utility of scenarios can approach analysis of scenarios and their impacts from either perspective—focusing attention on product outcomes and influence or assessing procedural and contextual dynamics and implications. Papers in this issue examine various aspects of scenario products, scenario processes and their interactions, with specific reference to global environmental change scenarios. Hulme and Dessai (2008) use the product-process distinction as a starting point for developing a framework to evaluate the success of scenario exercises. They identify 'prediction success', 'decision success' and 'learning success' as three evaluation metrics for scenarios, with the first two most relevant to scenario products and the last emphasizing procedural aspects of scenarios. They suggest that viewing scenarios primarily as products implies examining how closely actual outcomes have matched envisioned outcomes, while viewing them primarily as processes suggests evaluating the extent to which scenarios engaged participants and enabled their learning. O'Neill and Nakicenovic (2008) focus on Hulme and Dessai's evaluation metric, learning. Based on a review of six scenario/assessment exercises, they ask if and how scenario products have incorporated comparative assessments of results in order to enable cumulative learning across scenario efforts. The authors conclude that, although participating modelling teams have benefited greatly from the process of scenario activities and applied that learning to other scenario exercises in which they engage, learning from comparative assessments of scenario products has been rather limited; the latter due to the limited time and resources invested in comparative analysis. Pitcher (2009) speaks

  4. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  5. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  6. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  7. Future emission scenarios for chemicals that may deplete stratospheric ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammitt, J.K; Camm, Frank; Mooz, W.E.; Wolf, K.A.; Bamezai, Anil; Connel, P.S.; Wuebbles, D.J.

    1990-01-01

    Scenarios are developed for long-term future emissions of seven of the most important manmade chemicals that may deplete ozone and the corresponding effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations is calculated using a one-dimensional atmospheric model. The scenarios are based on detailed analysis of the markets for products that use these chemicals and span a central 90% probability interval for the chemicals joint effect on calculated ozone abundance, assuming no additional regulations. (author). 22 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

  8. Validation of EOPs/FRGs Procedures Using LOHS Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bajs, T.; Konjarek, D.; Vukovic, J.

    2012-01-01

    Validation of EOPs (Emergency Operating Procedures) and FRGs (Function Restoration Guidelines) can be achieved either through plant full scope simulator or on desk top exercises. The desk top exercise is conducted when for the given scenario plant full scope simulator is not suitable. In either verification cases predefined scenario should be evaluated and possible branching foreseen. The scenario presented is LOHS, with bleed and feed procedure initiated. Best estimate light water reactor transient analysis code RELAP5/mod3.3 was used in calculation. Standardized detailed plant model was used. Operator actions were modelled from beginning of the scenario to its termination.(author).

  9. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  10. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  11. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Assessment of radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-12-01

    account the uncertainty in timing and in the number of canisters potentially affected. Peak normalised releases for all calculation cases for the base, variant and disturbance scenarios are below the nuclide-specific constraints for the radioactive releases to the environment, as set out by the Finnish regulator, generally by more than an order of magnitude, even taking into account the possibility of multiple canister failures. Possible binary combinations of scenarios have been considered. Many can be excluded from detailed analysis on qualitative grounds. Where it is appropriate to sum the release rate of two different scenarios, the combined release rate to the surface environment still does not exceed the regulatory constraint. Finnish regulations also require an assessment of doses to humans, plants and animals, which should extend over a period in which such an assessment can be performed with sufficient reliability, with a minimum of several millennia. As a consequence, the period up to 10,000 years is referred to by Posiva as the dose criteria time window. Releases to the surface environment within the dose criteria time window are found to occur in the base scenario Reference Case, in some sensitivity cases for the base and variant scenarios and in one what-if case for the disturbance scenarios (AIC-LI). Biosphere modelling is carried out for these calculation cases and reported in Biosphere Assessment. (orig.)

  12. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Assessment of radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-12-15

    , taking into account the uncertainty in timing and in the number of canisters potentially affected. Peak normalised releases for all calculation cases for the base, variant and disturbance scenarios are below the nuclide-specific constraints for the radioactive releases to the environment, as set out by the Finnish regulator, generally by more than an order of magnitude, even taking into account the possibility of multiple canister failures. Possible binary combinations of scenarios have been considered. Many can be excluded from detailed analysis on qualitative grounds. Where it is appropriate to sum the release rate of two different scenarios, the combined release rate to the surface environment still does not exceed the regulatory constraint. Finnish regulations also require an assessment of doses to humans, plants and animals, which should extend over a period in which such an assessment can be performed with sufficient reliability, with a minimum of several millennia. As a consequence, the period up to 10,000 years is referred to by Posiva as the dose criteria time window. Releases to the surface environment within the dose criteria time window are found to occur in the base scenario Reference Case, in some sensitivity cases for the base and variant scenarios and in one what-if case for the disturbance scenarios (AIC-LI). Biosphere modelling is carried out for these calculation cases and reported in Biosphere Assessment. (orig.)

  13. EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

  14. Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

    2009-10-01

    The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

  15. Development of ITER 15 MA ELMy H-mode Inductive Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    C. E. Kessel, D. Campbell, Y. Gribov, G. Saibene, G. Ambrosino, T. Casper, M. Cavinato, H. Fujieda, R. Hawryluk, L. D. Horton, A. Kavin, R. Kharyrutdinov, F. Koechl, J. Leuer, A. Loarte, P. J. Lomas, T. Luce, V. Lukash, M. Mattei, I.Nunes, V. Parail, A. Polevoi, A. Portone, R. Sartori, A.C.C. Sips, P. R. Thomas, A. Welander and J. Wesley

    2008-01-01

    The poloidal field (PF) coil system on ITER, which provides both feedforward and feedback control of plasma position, shape, and current, is a critical element for achieving mission performance. Analysis of PF capabilities has focused on the 15 MA Q = 10 scenario with a 300-500 s flattop burn phase. The operating space available for the 15 MA ELMy H-mode plasma discharges in ITER and upgrades to the PF coils or associated systems to establish confidence that ITER mission objectives can be reached have been identified. Time dependent self-consistent free-boundary calculations were performed to examine the impact of plasma variability, discharge programming, and plasma disturbances. Based on these calculations a new reference scenario was developed based upon a large bore initial plasma, early divertor transition, low level heating in L-mode, and a late H-mode onset. Equilibrium analyses for this scenario indicate that the original PF coil limitations do not allow low li (<0.8) operation or lower flux states, and the flattop burn durations were predicted to be less than the desired 400 s. This finding motivates the expansion of the operating space, considering several upgrade options to the PF coils. Analysis was also carried out to examine the feedback current reserve required in the CS and PF coils during a series of disturbances and a feasibility assessment of the 17 MA scenario was undertaken. Results of the studies show that the new scenario and modified PF system will allow a wide range of 15 MA 300-500 s operation and more limited but finite 17 MA operation

  16. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  17. Electrical installation calculations basic

    CERN Document Server

    Kitcher, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    All the essential calculations required for basic electrical installation workThe Electrical Installation Calculations series has proved an invaluable reference for over forty years, for both apprentices and professional electrical installation engineers alike. The book provides a step-by-step guide to the successful application of electrical installation calculations required in day-to-day electrical engineering practice. A step-by-step guide to everyday calculations used on the job An essential aid to the City & Guilds certificates at Levels 2 and 3Fo

  18. Electrical installation calculations advanced

    CERN Document Server

    Kitcher, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    All the essential calculations required for advanced electrical installation workThe Electrical Installation Calculations series has proved an invaluable reference for over forty years, for both apprentices and professional electrical installation engineers alike. The book provides a step-by-step guide to the successful application of electrical installation calculations required in day-to-day electrical engineering practiceA step-by-step guide to everyday calculations used on the job An essential aid to the City & Guilds certificates at Levels 2 and 3For apprentices and electrical installatio

  19. The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

    1998-04-01

    The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

  20. The changing nutrition scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  1. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  2. Energy efficiency improvement potentials and a low energy demand scenario for the global industrial sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kermeli, Katerina; Graus, Wina H J; Worrell, Ernst

    2014-01-01

    The adoption of energy efficiency measures can significantly reduce industrial energy use. This study estimates the future industrial energy consumption under two energy demand scenarios: (1) a reference scenario that follows business as usual trends and (2) a low energy demand scenario that takes

  3. NASCAP programmer's reference manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandell, M. J.; Stannard, P. R.; Katz, I.

    1993-05-01

    The NASA Charging Analyzer Program (NASCAP) is a computer program designed to model the electrostatic charging of complicated three-dimensional objects, both in a test tank and at geosynchronous altitudes. This document is a programmer's reference manual and user's guide. It is designed as a reference to experienced users of the code, as well as an introduction to its use for beginners. All of the many capabilities of NASCAP are covered in detail, together with examples of their use. These include the definition of objects, plasma environments, potential calculations, particle emission and detection simulations, and charging analysis.

  4. Surface WAter Scenario Help (SWASH) version 5.3 : technical description

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roller, te J.A.; Berg, van den F.; Adriaanse, P.I.; Jong, de A.; Beltman, W.H.J.

    2015-01-01

    The user-friendly shell SWASH, acronym for Surface WAter Scenarios Help, assists the user in calculating pesticide exposure concentrations in the EU FOCUS surface water scenarios. SWASH encompasses five separate tools and models: (i) FOCUS Drift Calculator, calculating pesticide entries through

  5. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  6. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  7. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  8. Energy scenarios for New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

    1977-10-15

    Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

  9. Evaluation of ecosystem service based on scenario simulation of land use in Yunnan Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hong; Liao, Xiaoli; Zhai, Tianlin

    2018-04-01

    Climate change and rapid urbanization are important factors restricting future land use. Situational analysis, as an important foundation for the optimization of land use, needs to focus on the impact of climate factors and socio-economic factors. In this paper, the Markov model and the DLS (Simulation of Land System Dynamics) model are combined for the first time, and the land use pattern in 2020 is simulated based on the data of land use in 2000 and 2010 as well as the climate, soil, topography and socio-economic factors of Yunnan Province. In his paper, we took Yunnan Province as the case study area, and selected 12 driving factors by logistic regression method, then the land use demands and layout of Yunnan Province in 2020 has been forecasted and simulated under business as usual (BAU) scenario and farmland protection (FP) scenario and the changes in ecosystem service value has been calculated. The result shows that: (1) after the regression analysis and ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) test, the 12 factors selected in this paper have a strong ability to explain the land use change in Yunnan Province. (2) Under the two scenarios, the significant reduction of arable land area is a common feature of land use change in Yunnan Province in the future, and its main land use type will be construction land. However, under FP scenario, the current situation where construction land encroach on arable land will be improved. Compared with the change from 2000 to 2010, the trend of arable land, forest land, water area, construction land and unused land will be the same under the two scenarios, whereas the change trend of grassland was opposite. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the value of ecosystem services in Yunnan Province is on the rise, but the ecosystem service value under FP scenario is higher than that of the ecosystem services under BAU scenario. In general, land use in 2020 in Yunnan Province continues the pattern of 2010, but there are also significant spatial

  10. The European Union, regionalism, and world order: five scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Telò

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the changing interplay between regional and global governance, with reference to five possible scenarios in the future shift of the international system. A ‘new multilateralism’ represents the only possible global framework consistent with an expanding and pluridimensional regional governance system. Furthermore, the weaknesses and contradictions of the alternative scenarios make a multilayered, more robust and legitimate multilateral governance more realistic.

  11. Survey report for fiscal 1999. Reference book for standard heat calculations in high-performance industrial furnace introduction field test project; 1999 nendo koseino kogyoro donyu field test jigyo chosa hokokusho. Hyojun netsu keisanshiki kijunsho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    With an objective to verify in a short time the heat recovery capability being the evaluation parameter for the technologies to develop the high-performance industrial furnace, a standard calculation book will be prepared, which standardizes the data collection methods and heat calculation methods, and is used as the standard data sheets and bases. Evaluations and analyses will be given on business types, furnace constructions, thermal technologies, and functions in the research items adopted in the field test project. The results will be used to recognize the business entities engaged in the project in the next fiscal year, furnace types and sizes, establish the industrial furnace subjected to researches in the next fiscal year, and proliferate and expand the related business entities. Standard data sheets will be prepared on seven kinds of furnaces, heating furnaces (continuous and batch types), ladles, heat treatment furnaces (continuous and batch types), gas treatment furnaces, and melting furnaces. The standard data sheets will cover the following items: evaluation parameters (energy saving rate, thermal efficiency, and waste heat recovery rate), calculating conditions to be the base for the evaluation parameters, a heat production book to be the base for calculating the heat unit requirement, and a standard calculation book to be the base for the heat production table. The standard data sheets (including the standard calculation book) and floppy disks are submitted. (NEDO)

  12. Weldon Spring dose calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickson, H.W.; Hill, G.S.; Perdue, P.T.

    1978-09-01

    In response to a request by the Oak Ridge Operations (ORO) Office of the Department of Energy (DOE) for assistance to the Department of the Army (DA) on the decommissioning of the Weldon Spring Chemical Plant, the Health and Safety Research Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) performed limited dose assessment calculations for that site. Based upon radiological measurements from a number of soil samples analyzed by ORNL and from previously acquired radiological data for the Weldon Spring site, source terms were derived to calculate radiation doses for three specific site scenarios. These three hypothetical scenarios are: a wildlife refuge for hunting, fishing, and general outdoor recreation; a school with 40 hr per week occupancy by students and a custodian; and a truck farm producing fruits, vegetables, meat, and dairy products which may be consumed on site. Radiation doses are reported for each of these scenarios both for measured uranium daughter equilibrium ratios and for assumed secular equilibrium. Doses are lower for the nonequilibrium case

  13. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  14. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
    with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  15. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  16. Reference costs of electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terraz, N.

    1997-01-01

    The calculation of electric power production reference costs is used in France, even in the present case of over-capacity, for comparing the relative interest of the various means of power generation (nuclear plants, coal plants, hydroelectricity, gas combined cycles, etc.) and as an aid for future investment decisions. Reference costs show a sharp decrease between 1993 and 1997 due to advancements in nuclear plant operating ability and fossil fuel price decrease. Actuarial rates, plant service life, fuel costs and exchange rates are important parameters. The various costs from the research stage to the waste processing stages are discussed and the reference costs of the various power generation systems are presented and compared together with their competitiveness; the future of wind energy and cogeneration and the prospective of the renewal of nuclear plants at the 2010 horizon are also addressed

  17. From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

    1994-03-01

    The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

  18. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

    2011-01-01

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  19. Charging of mobile services by mobile payment reference model

    OpenAIRE

    Pousttchi, Key; Wiedemann, Dietmar Georg

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of the paper is to analyze mobile payments in the mobile commerce scenario. Therefore, we first classify the mobile payment in the mobile commerce scenario by explaining general offer models, charging concepts, and intermediaries. Second, we describe the mobile payment reference model, especially, the mobile payment reference organization model and different mobile payment standard types. Finally, we conclude our findings.

  20. Extreme scenarios for nuclear waste repositories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M J [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (USA). Div. of Applied Sciences; Crouch, E [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (USA). Energy and Environmental Policy Center

    1982-09-01

    Two extreme scenarios for release of radioactive waste have been constructed. In the first, a volcanic eruption releases 1 km/sup 2/ of an underground nuclear waste repository, while in the second, waste enters the drinking water reservoir of a major city. With pessimistic assumptions, upper bounds on the number of cancers due to radiation are calculated. In the volcano scenario, the effects of the waste are smaller than the effects of natural radioactivity in the volcanic dust if the delay between emplacement and eruption exceeds 2000 yr. The consequences of the waste in drinking water depend on the survival time of the canisters and the rate of leaching of the nuclides from the waste matrix. For a canister life of 400 yr and a leach time of 6300 yr the cancer rate in the affected area would increase by 25%.

  1. Extreme scenarios for nuclear waste repositories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M J; Crouch, E

    1982-09-01

    Two extreme scenarios for release of radioactive waste have been constructed. In the first, a volcanic eruption releases 1 km2 of an underground nuclear waste repository, while in the second, waste enters the drinking water reservoir of a major city. With pessimistic assumptions, upper bounds on the number of cancers due to radiation are calculated. In the volcano scenario, the effects of the water are smaller than the effects of natural radioactivity in the volcanic dust if the delay between emplacement and eruption exceeds 2000 yr. The consequences of the waste in drinking water depend on the survival time of the canisters and the rate of leaching of the nuclides from the waste matrix. For a canister life of 400 yr and a leach time of 6300 yr the cancer rate in the affected area would increase by 25%.

  2. Systematic design of active spaces for multi-reference calculations of singlet-triplet gaps of organic diradicals, with benchmarks against doubly electron-attached coupled-cluster data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoneburner, Samuel J.; Shen, Jun; Ajala, Adeayo O.; Piecuch, Piotr; Truhlar, Donald G.; Gagliardi, Laura

    2017-10-01

    Singlet-triplet gaps in diradical organic π-systems are of interest in many applications. In this study, we calculate them in a series of molecules, including cyclobutadiene and its derivatives and cyclopentadienyl cation, by using correlated participating orbitals within the complete active space (CAS) and restricted active space (RAS) self-consistent field frameworks, followed by second-order perturbation theory (CASPT2 and RASPT2). These calculations are evaluated by comparison with the results of doubly electron-attached (DEA) equation-of-motion (EOM) coupled-cluster (CC) calculations with up to 4-particle-2-hole (4p-2h) excitations. We find active spaces that can accurately reproduce the DEA-EOMCC(4p-2h) data while being small enough to be applicable to larger organic diradicals.

  3. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  4. [Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

    2013-01-01

    Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year.

  5. CLASS: Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mouginot, B.; Thiolliere, N.

    2015-01-01

    The nuclear reactor simulation community has to perform complex electronuclear scenario simulations. To avoid constraints coming from the existing powerful scenario software such as COSI, VISION or FAMILY, the open source Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulation (CLASS) has been developed. The main asset of CLASS is its ability to include any type of reactor, whether the system is innovative or standard. A reactor is fully described by its evolution database which should contain a set of different validated fuel compositions in order to simulate transitional scenarios. CLASS aims to be a useful tool to study scenarios involving Generation-IV reactors as well as innovative fuel cycles, like the thorium cycle. In addition to all standard key objects required by an electronuclear scenario simulation (the isotopic vector, the reactor, the fuel storage and the fabrication units), CLASS also integrates two new specific modules: fresh fuel evolution and recycled fuel fabrication. The first module, dealing with fresh fuel evolution, is implemented in CLASS by solving Bateman equations built from a database induced cross-sections. The second module, which incorporates the fabrication of recycled fuel to CLASS, can be defined by user priorities and/or algorithms. By default, it uses a linear Pu equivalent-method, which allows predicting, from the isotopic composition, the maximum burn-up accessible for a set type of fuel. This paper presents the basis of the CLASS scenario, the fuel method applied to a MOX fuel and an evolution module benchmark based on the French electronuclear fleet from 1977 to 2012. Results of the CLASS calculation were compared with the inventory made and published by the ANDRA organisation in 2012. For UOX used fuels, the ANDRA reported 12006 tonnes of heavy metal in stock, including cooling, versus 18500 tonnes of heavy metal predicted by CLASS. The large difference is easily explained by the presence of 56 tonnes of plutonium already separated

  6. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  7. A Comparative Study of Different EEG Reference Choices for Diagnosing Unipolar Depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumtaz, Wajid; Malik, Aamir Saeed

    2018-06-02

    The choice of an electroencephalogram (EEG) reference has fundamental importance and could be critical during clinical decision-making because an impure EEG reference could falsify the clinical measurements and subsequent inferences. In this research, the suitability of three EEG references was compared while classifying depressed and healthy brains using a machine-learning (ML)-based validation method. In this research, the EEG data of 30 unipolar depressed subjects and 30 age-matched healthy controls were recorded. The EEG data were analyzed in three different EEG references, the link-ear reference (LE), average reference (AR), and reference electrode standardization technique (REST). The EEG-based functional connectivity (FC) was computed. Also, the graph-based measures, such as the distances between nodes, minimum spanning tree, and maximum flow between the nodes for each channel pair, were calculated. An ML scheme provided a mechanism to compare the performances of the extracted features that involved a general framework such as the feature extraction (graph-based theoretic measures), feature selection, classification, and validation. For comparison purposes, the performance metrics such as the classification accuracies, sensitivities, specificities, and F scores were computed. When comparing the three references, the diagnostic accuracy showed better performances during the REST, while the LE and AR showed less discrimination between the two groups. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the choice of appropriate reference is critical during the clinical scenario. The REST reference is recommended for future applications of EEG-based diagnosis of mental illnesses.

  8. Probabilistic approach relative to fire scenarios study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chabot, Jean-Luc

    1998-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis is to develop a calculation method of the occurring probability of the fire scenarios (detection, setting of the intervention, extinction) taking into account the size and the impact of the fire on the surroundings. This new method is called 'hybrid simulation'. It includes in a unique modelling the processing of continuous and discrete phenomenon. Moreover, to correctly represent fire scenarios, it is necessary not to take only into account the 'continuous' growing of the fire itself but of also 'discrete' events like detection, fire fighting and extinction, human behaviour and related faults. For that purpose we couple a code modelling the physical aspects of the fire to Petri nets which is able to model these 'discrete' events, this coupling consists of driving the 'continuous' model by the occurring of the 'discrete' events. This new technique which can be used to cover 'discrete' and 'continuous' events in a single calculation represents a solution to dynamic reliability calculation problems, for which there is a continuously increasing demand for analysing reliability, availability of production and maintainability of complex industrial systems. (author) [fr

  9. Transport calculations with the BALDUR code. Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lackner, K.; Wunderlich, R.

    1979-12-01

    1-d transport calculations with the BALDUR-code are described for predicting the performance of ZEPHYR under D-T operation. Results presented in this report refer to the impurity-free case, and ion and electron heat conduction losses described by CHIsub(i) = neoclassical and CHIsub(e) = 6.25 x 10 17 /nsub(e) (cgs-units). A simple refuelling scenario taking account of the density limit for the ohmic heating phase, the contribution of neutral injection to the refuelling rate and the need for an approximately balanced D-T mixture at the instance of ignition is adopted. The heating scenario assumes a neutral injection beam with 160 keV particle energy in the main component, with a duration of 1.1 sec. Major radius compression by a factor of 1.5 starts 1 sec after the onset of neutral injection and lasts 100 msec. For this standard scenario the performance is studied in different density regimes and for different neutral injection powers. Under the above assumption ignition is predicted for total neutral injection powers < approx. 16 MW (9.6 MW in the main energy component) and average total β-values < 2.8%. Results including impurities, alternative scaling laws, and deviations from the standard scenario will be presented in another report. (orig.) 891 GG/orig. 892 HIS

  10. Transition state theory thermal rate constants and RRKM-based branching ratios for the N((2)D) + CH(4) reaction based on multi-state and multi-reference ab initio calculations of interest for the Titan's chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouk, Chanda-Malis; Zvereva-Loëte, Natalia; Scribano, Yohann; Bussery-Honvault, Béatrice

    2012-10-30

    Multireference single and double configuration interaction (MRCI) calculations including Davidson (+Q) or Pople (+P) corrections have been conducted in this work for the reactants, products, and extrema of the doublet ground state potential energy surface involved in the N((2)D) + CH(4) reaction. Such highly correlated ab initio calculations are then compared with previous PMP4, CCSD(T), W1, and DFT/B3LYP studies. Large relative differences are observed in particular for the transition state in the entrance channel resolving the disagreement between previous ab initio calculations. We confirm the existence of a small but positive potential barrier (3.86 ± 0.84 kJ mol(-1) (MR-AQCC) and 3.89 kJ mol(-1) (MRCI+P)) in the entrance channel of the title reaction. The correlation is seen to change significantly the energetic position of the two minima and five saddle points of this system together with the dissociation channels but not their relative order. The influence of the electronic correlation into the energetic of the system is clearly demonstrated by the thermal rate constant evaluation and it temperature dependance by means of the transition state theory. Indeed, only MRCI values are able to reproduce the experimental rate constant of the title reaction and its behavior with temperature. Similarly, product branching ratios, evaluated by means of unimolecular RRKM theory, confirm the NH production of Umemoto et al., whereas previous works based on less accurate ab initio calculations failed. We confirm the previous findings that the N((2)D) + CH(4) reaction proceeds via an insertion-dissociation mechanism and that the dominant product channels are CH(2)NH + H and CH(3) + NH. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Scenarios of hydrogen production from wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klaric, Mario

    2010-09-15

    Since almost total amount of hydrogen is currently being produced from natural gas, other ways of cleaner and 'more renewable' production should be made feasible in order to make benchmarks for total 'hydrogen economy'. Hydrogen production from wind power combined with electrolysis imposes as one possible framework for new economy development. In this paper various wind-to-hydrogen scenarios were calculated. Cash flows of asset based project financing were used as decision making tool. Most important parameters were identified and strategies for further research and development and resource allocation are suggested.

  12. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  13. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  14. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  15. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  16. CONTAIN calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scholtyssek, W.

    1995-01-01

    In the first phase of a benchmark comparison, the CONTAIN code was used to calculate an assumed EPR accident 'medium-sized leak in the cold leg', especially for the first two days after initiation of the accident. The results for global characteristics compare well with those of FIPLOC, MELCOR and WAVCO calculations, if the same materials data are used as input. However, significant differences show up for local quantities such as flows through leakages. (orig.)

  17. Scenarios for remote gas production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

  18. Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-01-01

    Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economics. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle (as a reference scenario), a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycles with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS).Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand. Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios respectively.

  19. Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-07-01

    Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economics. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle (as a reference scenario), a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycles with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS).Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand. Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios respectively.

  20. Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

    2018-03-06

    The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

  1. Generic Crystalline Disposal Reference Case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Painter, Scott Leroy [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Chu, Shaoping [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Harp, Dylan Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Perry, Frank Vinton [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Wang, Yifeng [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-02-20

    A generic reference case for disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste in crystalline rock is outlined. The generic cases are intended to support development of disposal system modeling capability by establishing relevant baseline conditions and parameters. Establishment of a generic reference case requires that the emplacement concept, waste inventory, waste form, waste package, backfill/buffer properties, EBS failure scenarios, host rock properties, and biosphere be specified. The focus in this report is on those elements that are unique to crystalline disposal, especially the geosphere representation. Three emplacement concepts are suggested for further analyses: a waste packages containing 4 PWR assemblies emplaced in boreholes in the floors of tunnels (KBS-3 concept), a 12-assembly waste package emplaced in tunnels, and a 32-assembly dual purpose canister emplaced in tunnels. In addition, three failure scenarios were suggested for future use: a nominal scenario involving corrosion of the waste package in the tunnel emplacement concepts, a manufacturing defect scenario applicable to the KBS-3 concept, and a disruptive glaciation scenario applicable to both emplacement concepts. The computational approaches required to analyze EBS failure and transport processes in a crystalline rock repository are similar to those of argillite/shale, with the most significant difference being that the EBS in a crystalline rock repository will likely experience highly heterogeneous flow rates, which should be represented in the model. The computational approaches required to analyze radionuclide transport in the natural system are very different because of the highly channelized nature of fracture flow. Computational workflows tailored to crystalline rock based on discrete transport pathways extracted from discrete fracture network models are recommended.

  2. Experimental studies and nuclear model calculations on proton-induced reactions on $^{nat}$Se, $^{76}$Se and $^{77}$Se with particular reference to the production of the medically interesting radionuclides $^{76}$Br and $^{77}$Br

    CERN Document Server

    Hassan, H E; Coenen, H H; Morsy, M; Qaim, S M; Shubin, Yu; 10.1016/j.apradiso.2004.02.001

    2004-01-01

    Excitation functions of the reactions /sup nat/Se(p, x)/sup 75,76,77,82/Br, /sup 76/Se(p, xn)/sup 75,76/Br, /sup 76/Se(p, x)/sup 75/Se and /sup 77/Se(p, xn)/sup 76,77/Br were measured from their respective thresholds up to 40 MeV, with particular emphasis on data for the production of the medically important radionuclides /sup 76 /Br and /sup 77/Br. The conventional stacked-foil technique was used. The samples were prepared by a sedimentation process. Irradiations were performed using the compact cyclotron CV 28 and the injector of COSY, both at the Research Centre Julich. In order to validate the data, nuclear model calculations were performed using the code ALICE- IPPE which is based on the preequilibrium-evaporation model. Good agreement was found between the experimental and theoretical data, except in the high-energy region where the calculated data were somewhat higher. All the measured excitation curves were compared with the data available in the literature. From the experimental data the theoretical ...

  3. Earthquake Scenario-Based Tsunami Wave Heights in the Eastern Mediterranean and Connected Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necmioglu, Ocal; Özel, Nurcan Meral

    2015-12-01

    We identified a set of tsunami scenario input parameters in a 0.5° × 0.5° uniformly gridded area in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean (both for shallow- and intermediate-depth earthquakes) and Black Seas (only shallow earthquakes) and calculated tsunami scenarios using the SWAN-Joint Research Centre (SWAN-JRC) code ( Mader 2004; Annunziato 2007) with 2-arcmin resolution bathymetry data for the range of 6.5—Mwmax with an Mw increment of 0.1 at each grid in order to realize a comprehensive analysis of tsunami wave heights from earthquakes originating in the region. We defined characteristic earthquake source parameters from a compiled set of sources such as existing moment tensor catalogues and various reference studies, together with the Mwmax assigned in the literature, where possible. Results from 2,415 scenarios show that in the Eastern Mediterranean and its connected seas (Aegean and Black Sea), shallow earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6.5 may result in coastal wave heights of 0.5 m, whereas the same wave height would be expected only from intermediate-depth earthquakes with Mw ≥ 7.0 . The distribution of maximum wave heights calculated indicate that tsunami wave heights up to 1 m could be expected in the northern Aegean, whereas in the Black Sea, Cyprus, Levantine coasts, northern Libya, eastern Sicily, southern Italy, and western Greece, up to 3-m wave height could be possible. Crete, the southern Aegean, and the area between northeast Libya and Alexandria (Egypt) is prone to maximum tsunami wave heights of >3 m. Considering that calculations are performed at a minimum bathymetry depth of 20 m, these wave heights may, according to Green's Law, be amplified by a factor of 2 at the coastline. The study can provide a basis for detailed tsunami hazard studies in the region.

  4. Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2018-03-01

    An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

  5. Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.

  6. Mars Scenario-Based Visioning: Logistical Optimization of Transportation Architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this conceptual design investigation is to examine transportation forecasts for future human Wu missions to Mars. - Scenario-Based Visioning is used to generate possible future demand projections. These scenarios are then coupled with availability, cost, and capacity parameters for indigenously designed Mars Transfer Vehicles (solar electric, nuclear thermal, and chemical propulsion types) and Earth-to-Orbit launch vehicles (current, future, and indigenous) to provide a cost-conscious dual-phase launch manifest to meet such future demand. A simulator named M-SAT (Mars Scenario Analysis Tool) is developed using this method. This simulation is used to examine three specific transportation scenarios to Mars: a limited "flaus and footprints" mission, a More ambitious scientific expedition similar to an expanded version of the Design Reference Mission from NASA, and a long-term colonization scenario. Initial results from the simulation indicate that chemical propulsion systems might be the architecture of choice for all three scenarios. With this mind, "what if' analyses were performed which indicated that if nuclear production costs were reduced by 30% for the colonization scenario, then the nuclear architecture would have a lower life cycle cost than the chemical. Results indicate that the most cost-effective solution to the Mars transportation problem is to plan for segmented development, this involves development of one vehicle at one opportunity and derivatives of that vehicle at subsequent opportunities.

  7. Air emissions scenarios from ethanol as a gasoline oxygenate in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Carlos A. [Posgrado en Ingenieria Energetica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico); Manzini, Fabio; Islas, Jorge [Centro de Investigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico)

    2010-12-15

    The Mexican Biofuel Introduction Program states that during year 2010 the three biggest Mexican cities will have a gasoline blending with 6% ethanol available for all gasoline on-road vehicle fleet. Also in 2010 Mexican government has programmed to start the substitution of Tier 1 - the adopted US emission standards - by Tier 2, which are more stringent emission standards for motor vehicles and gasoline sulfur control requirements. How will the air emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) be modified by using this blending? Four scenarios up to year 2030 were constructed and simulated using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning model. Beginning with a BAU or reference scenario, in this scenario the current available fuel is a blending composed by 5% methyl tertiary butyl ether and 95% gasoline (MTBE5). Then, three alternative scenarios that use ethanol as an oxygenate are considered, one with the already programmed E6 blending (6% anhydride ethanol, 94% gasoline), for the sake of comparison the E10 blending (10% anhydride ethanol, 90% gasoline), and the other alternative to compare, ETBE13.7 (13.7% ethyl tertiary butyl ether, 86.3% gasoline; where ETBE is an ether composed by 48% anhydride ethanol and 52% isobutene). Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), total hydrocarbons (THC), benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and 1,3-butadiene were calculated using emission factors previously calculated using the adapted US-EPA computer model called MOBILE6-Mexico. Results show that Tier 1 and Tier 2 standards effectively lowers all emissions in all studied scenarios with the exception of PM10 and CO{sub 2} emissions. The alternative scenario E10 has the most total avoided emissions by weight but it is not the best when considering some individual pollutants. The greatest environmental benefit of ethanol in its final use as a gasoline oxygenate is for

  8. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  9. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  10. Discovering the new RCP and SSP scenarios used by the IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    This report presents the scenarios defined by a group of experts within the perspective of the 5. IPCC report. This four reference scenarios named RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) have been designed to foresee the evolution of concentrations of greenhouse gases, of ozone, and of aerosol precursors for the 21. century and beyond. The report also evokes the evolution of simulations used by climatologists, and the introduction of a representation of social and economic evolutions (definition of five families of scenario-types: sustainability, middle of the road, fragmentation, inequality, and conventional development). The consistency of these RCP scenarios and social-economical scenarios is outlined

  11. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  12. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  13. Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A.

    2005-07-01

    Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

  14. Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A

    2005-07-15

    Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

  15. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  16. Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Braun, Kimberly

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

  17. Spallation reactions: calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertini, H.W.

    1975-01-01

    Current methods for calculating spallation reactions over various energy ranges are described and evaluated. Recent semiempirical fits to existing data will probably yield the most accurate predictions for these reactions in general. However, if the products in question have binding energies appreciably different from their isotropic neighbors and if the cross section is approximately 30 mb or larger, then the intranuclear-cascade-evaporation approach is probably better suited. (6 tables, 12 figures, 34 references) (U.S.)

  18. Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

    2016-04-01

    The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

  19. Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

    1990-01-01

    Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Event tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, the authors discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 (Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises) using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

  20. Burnout calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, D.

    1980-01-01

    Reviewed is the effect of heat flux of different system parameters on critical density in order to give an initial view on the value of several parameters. A thorough analysis of different equations is carried out to calculate burnout is steam-water flows in uniformly heated tubes, annular, and rectangular channels and rod bundles. Effect of heat flux density distribution and flux twisting on burnout and storage determination according to burnout are commended [ru

  1. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-01-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  2. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  3. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  4. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosa, IMD

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available & Evolution, vol. 1: 1416-1419 Multiscale scenarios for nature futures Rosa IMD Pereira HM Ferrier S Alkemade R Acosta LA Akcakaya HR den Belder E Fazel AM Fujimori S Sitas NE ABSTRACT: Targets for human development are increasingly...

  5. Shell energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

  6. Multiobjective optimization for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios using COSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freynet David

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of various fleet evolution options on material inventories and flux in fuel cycle and waste can be analysed by means of transition scenario studies. The COSI code is currently simulating chronologically scenarios whose parameters are fully defined by the user and is coupled with the CESAR depletion code. As the interactions among reactors and fuel cycle facilities can be complex, and the ways in which they may be configured are many, the development of optimization methodology could improve scenario studies. The optimization problem definition needs to list: (i criteria (e.g. saving natural resources and minimizing waste production; (ii variables (scenario parameters related to reprocessing, reactor operation, installed power distribution, etc.; (iii constraints making scenarios industrially feasible. The large number of scenario calculations needed to solve an optimization problem can be time-consuming and hardly achievable; therefore, it requires the shortening of the COSI computation time. Given that CESAR depletion calculations represent about 95% of this computation time, CESAR surrogate models have been developed and coupled with COSI. Different regression models are compared to estimate CESAR outputs: first- and second-order polynomial regressions, Gaussian process and artificial neural network. This paper is about a first optimization study of a transition scenario from the current French nuclear fleet to a Sodium Fast Reactors fleet as defined in the frame of the 2006 French Act for waste management. The present article deals with obtaining the optimal scenarios and validating the methodology implemented, i.e. the coupling between the simulation software COSI, depletion surrogate models and a genetic algorithm optimization method.

  7. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  8. Employment references: defamation law in the clinical laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, D G

    1993-01-01

    The law of defamation and the risks involved in issuing employment references are discussed. A hypothetical scenario is used to illustrate the legal standards governing the tort of defamation and to apply those standards to employment references. Practical suggestions for a "controlled reference" policy are provided, with the objective of allowing for responsible exchange of employment information and avoiding a defamation lawsuit.

  9. Hazards study of environmental protection classified facilities. Scenarios analysis; Etude de dangers des ICPE. Analyse des scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seveque, J.L. [Cour d' Appel d' Amiens, 80 (France)

    2006-04-15

    This article describes the analysis and study of the possible impacts of accidents occurring at industrial facilities classified with respect to the environment protection. The operators of such facilities have to describe the possible risks and their consequences, the measures taken to prevent them and the level of residual risk. Therefore, it consists in calculating the consequences of all possible aggressions that a facility can undergo. The receptors are of 2 type: the human body (burns, asphyxia, intoxication, shock wave, projectile), and the surrounding equipments (fire, unconfined vapour cloud explosion (UVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE), fireball, dispersion of toxic gases). Content: 1 - fire-type scenario: description, modeling of thermal effects, conclusion; 2 - UVCE-type scenario: description, Lannoy method (TNT equivalent), multi-energy method, conclusion; 3 - BLEVE-type scenario: description, modeling of overpressure effects, thermal effects of the fireball; 4 - toxic cloud scenario: modeling of a toxic cloud dispersion, effects and consequences; 5 - conclusions. (J.S.)

  10. Relevance of biotic pathways to the long-term regulation of nuclear waste disposal. Topical report on reference eastern humid low-level sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKenzie, D.H.; Cadwell, L.L.; Eberhardt, L.E.; Kennedy, W.E. Jr.; Peloquin, R.A.; Simmons, M.A.

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of the work reported here was to develop an order-of-magnitude estimate for the potential dose to man resulting from biotic transport mechanisms at a humid reference low-level waste site in the eastern US. A description of the reference site is presented that includes the waste inventories, site characteristics and biological communites. Parameter values for biotic transport processes are based on data reported in current literature. Transport and exposure scenarios are developed for assessing biotic transport during 500 years following site closure. Calculations of radionuclide decay and waste container decomposition are made to estimate the quantities available for biotic transport. Doses to man are calculated for the biological transport of radionucludes at the reference site after loss of institutional control. These dose estimates are compared to dose estimates we calculated for the intruder-agricultural scenarios reported in the DEIS for 10 CFR 61 (NRC). Dose to man estimates as a result of cumulative biotic transport are calculated to be of the same order-of-magnitude as the dose resulting from the more commonly evaluated human intrusion scenario. The reported lack of potential importance of biotic transport at low-level waste sites in earlier assessment studies is not confirmed by findings presented in this report. Through biotic transport, radionuclides can be moved to locations where they can enter exposure pathways to man

  11. Japanese reference man 1988, 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Gi-ichiro

    1988-01-01

    Quantitative description of physical properties and other characteristics of the human body is one of the basic data for estimating dose equivalent and calculating Annual Limit on Intake of radionuclides. The exact mass weight of organs and tissues are measured from about 1000 autopsy cases of normal Japanese adults and physical properties are obtained from recent Japanese Government publications. Japanese (Asian) Reference Man is completed by establishing the Normal Japanese, harmonizing with Caucasian Reference Man and coinciding with the ICRP Reference Man Task Group members concept. (author)

  12. Finding the Optimum Scenario in Risk-benefit Assessment: An Example on Vitamin D

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berjia, Firew Lemma; Hoekstra, J.; Verhagen, H.

    2014-01-01

    when changing from the reference to the optimum scenario. Conclusion: The method allowed us to find the optimum serum level in the vitamin D example. Additional case studies are needed to further validate the applicability of the approach to other nutrients or foods, especially with regards...... a method for finding the optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gains. Methods: A multiple scenario simulation. The method is presented using vitamin D intake in Denmark as an example. In addition to the reference scenario, several alternative scenarios are simulated to detect the scenario...... that provides maximum net health gains. As a common health metric, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) has been used to project the net health effect by using the QALIBRA (Quality of Life for Benefit Risk Assessment) software. Results: The method used in the vitamin D example shows that it is feasible to find...

  13. Computational modeling of the mathematical dummy of the Brazilian woman for calculations of internal dosimetry and ends of comparison of the fractions absorbed specific with the woman reference; Modelagem computacional do manequim matematico da mulher brasileira para calculos de dosimetria interna e para fins de comparacao das fracoes absorvidas especificas com a mulher referencia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ximenes, Edmir

    2006-07-01

    Tools for dosimetric calculations are of the utmost importance for the basic principles of radiological protection, not only in nuclear medicine, but also in other scientific calculations. In this work a mathematical model of the Brazilian woman is developed in order to be used as a basis for calculations of Specific Absorbed Fractions (SAFs) in internal organs and in the skeleton, in accord with the objectives of diagnosis or therapy in nuclear medicine. The model developed here is similar in form to that of Snyder, but modified to be more relevant to the case of the Brazilian woman. To do this, the formalism of the Monte Carlo method was used by means of the ALGAM- 97{sup R} computational code. As a contribution to the objectives of this thesis, we developed the computational system cSAF - consultation for Specific Absorbed Fractions (cFAE from Portuguese acronym) - which furnishes several 'look-up' facilities for the research user. The dialogue interface with the operator was planned following current practices in the utilization of event-oriented languages. This interface permits the user to navigate by means of the reference models, choose the source organ, the energy desired, and receive an answer through an efficient and intuitive dialogue. The system furnishes, in addition to the data referring to the Brazilian woman, data referring to the model of Snyder and to the model of the Brazilian man. The system makes available not only individual data to the SAFs of the three models, but also a comparison among them. (author)

  14. Computational modeling of the mathematical dummy of the Brazilian woman for calculations of internal dosimetry and ends of comparison of the fractions absorbed specific with the woman reference; Modelagem computacional do manequim matematico da mulher brasileira para calculos de dosimetria interna e para fins de comparacao das fracoes absorvidas especificas com a mulher referencia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ximenes, Edmir

    2006-07-01

    Tools for dosimetric calculations are of the utmost importance for the basic principles of radiological protection, not only in nuclear medicine, but also in other scientific calculations. In this work a mathematical model of the Brazilian woman is developed in order to be used as a basis for calculations of Specific Absorbed Fractions (SAFs) in internal organs and in the skeleton, in accord with the objectives of diagnosis or therapy in nuclear medicine. The model developed here is similar in form to that of Snyder, but modified to be more relevant to the case of the Brazilian woman. To do this, the formalism of the Monte Carlo method was used by means of the ALGAM- 97{sup R} computational code. As a contribution to the objectives of this thesis, we developed the computational system cSAF - consultation for Specific Absorbed Fractions (cFAE from Portuguese acronym) - which furnishes several 'look-up' facilities for the research user. The dialogue interface with the operator was planned following current practices in the utilization of event-oriented languages. This interface permits the user to navigate by means of the reference models, choose the source organ, the energy desired, and receive an answer through an efficient and intuitive dialogue. The system furnishes, in addition to the data referring to the Brazilian woman, data referring to the model of Snyder and to the model of the Brazilian man. The system makes available not only individual data to the SAFs of the three models, but also a comparison among them. (author)

  15. Using scenarios for dissemination - Experiences from the IMS GLOBEMEN project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ollus, Martin; Hartel, Ingo; Tølle, Martin

    2002-01-01

    due to the complexities of the interdisciplinary field addressed. As an instrument for communication to the non-specialist public the IMS GLOBEMEN project produces a web-based scenario as part of its dissemination activities. It is aimed at giving a practical overview of specific challenges...... in the field and contributions from the project. Based upon a generic Virtual Enterprise Reference Architecture (called VERA) the partners in the project have developed a set of protypes to be implemeted in their own business processes. The results will be illutrated in one integrated scenario....

  16. Reliability calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.E.

    1986-03-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)

  17. Calculator calculus

    CERN Document Server

    McCarty, George

    1982-01-01

    How THIS BOOK DIFFERS This book is about the calculus. What distinguishes it, however, from other books is that it uses the pocket calculator to illustrate the theory. A computation that requires hours of labor when done by hand with tables is quite inappropriate as an example or exercise in a beginning calculus course. But that same computation can become a delicate illustration of the theory when the student does it in seconds on his calculator. t Furthermore, the student's own personal involvement and easy accomplishment give hi~ reassurance and en­ couragement. The machine is like a microscope, and its magnification is a hundred millionfold. We shall be interested in limits, and no stage of numerical approximation proves anything about the limit. However, the derivative of fex) = 67.SgX, for instance, acquires real meaning when a student first appreciates its values as numbers, as limits of 10 100 1000 t A quick example is 1.1 , 1.01 , 1.001 , •••• Another example is t = 0.1, 0.01, in the functio...

  18. Update of the HL-LHC operational scenarios for proton operation

    CERN Document Server

    Metral, Elias; Antoniou, Fanouria; Appleby, Robert Barrie; Arduini, Gianluigi; Barranco Garcia, Javier; Baudrenghien, Philippe; Biancacci, Nicolo; Bracco, Chiara; Bruce, Roderik; Buffat, Xavier; Calaga, Rama; Carver, Lee Robert; Chapochnikova, Elena; Crouch, Matthew Paul; De Maria, Riccardo; Fartoukh, Stephane; Gamba, Davide; Giovannozzi, Massimo; Goncalves Jorge, Patrik; Hofle, Wolfgang; Iadarola, Giovanni; Karastathis, Nikos; Lasheen, Alexandre; Mastoridis, Themistoklis; Medina Medrano, Luis Eduardo; Mereghetti, Alessio; Mirarchi, Daniele; Muratori, Bruno; Papadopoulou, Parthena Stefania; Papaphilippou, Yannis; Pellegrini, Dario; Pieloni, Tatiana; Redaelli, Stefano; Rumolo, Giovanni; Salvant, Benoit; Solfaroli Camillocci, Matteo; Tambasco, Claudia; Tomas Garcia, Rogelio; Valuch, Daniel; CERN. Geneva. ATS Department

    2018-01-01

    The main aim of this document is to have a clearly identified set of beam and machine parameters to be used for numerical simulations and performance assessment. Two scenarios (referring only to the operation at the nominal beam energy of 7 TeV) are discussed: i) Nominal scenario (levelling at a luminosity of 5E34 cm-2s-1) ii) Ultimate scenario (levelling at a luminosity of 7.5E34 cm-2s-1)

  19. Energy reference forecast for 2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlesinger, Michael; Lutz, Christian

    2014-01-01

    The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy has commissioned three reputed institutions to prepare an energy reference forecast as well as a target scenario up to the year 2050. The results of this survey evidence a substantial need for political action if the goals of the Federal Government's energy concept are to be achieved as planned. In view of the wide range of interests among the players involved as well as the complexity of the demands facing the political leadership from diverse areas of life it appears unlikely that the targets laid down in the energy concept can be realised.

  20. Flood Scenario Simulation and Disaster Estimation of Ba-Ma Creek Watershed in Nantou County, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, S. H.; Hsu, Y. K.

    2018-04-01

    The present study proposed several scenario simulations of flood disaster according to the historical flood event and planning requirement in Ba-Ma Creek Watershed located in Nantou County, Taiwan. The simulations were made using the FLO-2D model, a numerical model which can compute the velocity and depth of flood on a two-dimensional terrain. Meanwhile, the calculated data were utilized to estimate the possible damage incurred by the flood disaster. The results thus obtained can serve as references for disaster prevention. Moreover, the simulated results could be employed for flood disaster estimation using the method suggested by the Water Resources Agency of Taiwan. Finally, the conclusions and perspectives are presented.

  1. A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario for France at the 2020 vista; Un scenario energetique tendanciel pour la France a l'horizon 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giraud, P.N

    2000-01-01

    A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario is the most probable scenario where the energy demand follows the trends of the past and where no new energy policy is implemented. This work is a complement to the three contrasted energy scenarios built in 1998 by the 'Energy 2010-2020' prospective group of the French general commission of national development. The scenario built in this study is only a reference which allows the measure the efforts made to reach political goals. The main conclusion of this scenario is the increase of the CO{sub 2} emissions under the double effect of the economic growth and of the cessation of the nuclear program which becomes non-competitive with respect to the gas prices and actualization rates retained in the scenario. The main constraint of the energy future is incontestably the necessary fight against the greenhouse effect. (J.S.)

  2. CP Violation in Heavy MSSM Higgs Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Carena, M; Lee, J S; Pilaftsis, A; Wagner, C E M

    2016-01-01

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M_S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M_H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG...

  3. Base case and perturbation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmunds, T

    1998-10-01

    This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

  4. Reliability Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kurt Erling

    1986-01-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...

  5. Global energy context: future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beretta, Gian Paolo

    2006-01-01

    After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

  6. Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of {alpha}-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in

  7. Design and preparation of scenarios for human factors studies in the HAMMLAB

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moracho, M. J.

    1999-01-01

    In the preparation of experiments for Human Factors studies, the scenarios play an important role. As a matter of fact, scenario effect is often demonstrated in the analysis of results. An experimental study referred to as Experiments' 97 was conducted in the Halden Man Machine LABoratory. In the design of the scenarios for this experiment, an effort was made for producing scenarios in compliance with the objectives of the study. Before the experiment simulations, scenario analysis was conducted and documented. This report presents some of the lessons learned from these activities. It also identifies main issues to be considered in the scenario characterisation and preparation. Examples of the scenarios' design document produced for the Experiments' 97 as well as examples of measure definitions for OPAS (OPerator Assessment System) and PPAS (Plant Performance System) are included in the appendixes (author) (ml)

  8. Calculations of NTM stabilization in ITER-FEAT by ECCD with realistic antenna geometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramponi, G.; Nowak, S.; Lazzaro, E.; Giruzzi, G.; Bosia, G.

    2001-01-01

    Neoclassical Tearing Modes stabilization is one of the main purposes for the implementation of an Electron Cyclotron Current Drive system on ITER-FEAT. Previous estimates have shown that a wave power level of 20-30 MW should be appropriate for a substantial reduction of the (3,2) and/or (2,1) modes. Here detailed calculations are presented combining, for the first time, the following elements: i) realistic antenna geometry resulting from detailed study of the implementation in an ITER upper port; ii) Gaussian beam-tracing calculations; iii) 3D Fokker-Planck calculations of the driven current density profile; iv) island evolution calculation, including island rotation effects. The power level necessary for complete stabilization of NTMs is evaluated for the ITER FEAT reference scenarios and the chosen wave frequency of 170 GHz. Optimization as a function of the injection poloidal and toroidal angles is discussed

  9. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  10. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  11. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  12. Certified reference materials of trace elements in water

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Many decisions regarding the suitability of material/products are based on the ... In the present scenario of globalization of economy, use of certified reference ... our national accreditation body, National Accreditation Board for Testing and ...

  13. Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krivtchik, Guillaume

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear scenario studies model nuclear fleet over a given period. They enable the comparison of different options for the reactor fleet evolution, and the management of the future fuel cycle materials, from mining to disposal, based on criteria such as installed capacity per reactor technology, mass inventories and flows, in the fuel cycle and in the waste. Uncertainties associated with nuclear data and scenario parameters (fuel, reactors and facilities characteristics) propagate along the isotopic chains in depletion calculations, and through out the scenario history, which reduces the precision of the results. The aim of this work is to develop, implement and use a stochastic uncertainty propagation methodology adapted to scenario studies. The method chosen is based on development of depletion computation surrogate models, which reduce the scenario studies computation time, and whose parameters include perturbations of the depletion model; and fabrication of equivalence model which take into account cross-sections perturbations for computation of fresh fuel enrichment. Then the uncertainty propagation methodology is applied to different scenarios of interest, considering different options of evolution for the French PWR fleet with SFR deployment. (author) [fr

  14. Energy perspectives 2035 - Volume 2, scenarios I to IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, A.

    2007-01-01

    This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the four scenarios concerning future developments in Swiss energy supply policy. The four complex scenarios include variants entitled 'business as usual', 'increased co-operation', 'new priorities' and 'on the way to a 2000-Watt society'. These scenarios deal with the development of energy demand and electricity offerings in Switzerland for the period 1990 to 2035. They are reviewed in the light of various sensitivity factors. These sensitivity factors include a high GDP, oil prices of 50 US-dollars per barrel and a warmer climate. The report presents the results of the model calculations made. First of all, the report takes a look at the motivation and aims behind the work and discusses the modelling methods, system limits and conventions used and the possibilities offered by the perspectives as well as the limits encountered. The four scenarios are then presented and discussed in detail. Implementation variants in the private, services, industrial and traffic sectors are discussed and various electricity supply variants are presented, as are the associated environmental issues involved. The scenarios are compared with each other and pricing and security of supply issues are discussed. Finally, a short synopsis of the scenarios is presented and decision criteria are discussed as are implementation instruments. Ethical dilemmas and the risks involved are noted

  15. Online plasma calculator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisniewski, H.; Gourdain, P.-A.

    2017-10-01

    APOLLO is an online, Linux based plasma calculator. Users can input variables that correspond to their specific plasma, such as ion and electron densities, temperatures, and external magnetic fields. The system is based on a webserver where a FastCGI protocol computes key plasma parameters including frequencies, lengths, velocities, and dimensionless numbers. FastCGI was chosen to overcome security problems caused by JAVA-based plugins. The FastCGI also speeds up calculations over PHP based systems. APOLLO is built upon the WT library, which turns any web browser into a versatile, fast graphic user interface. All values with units are expressed in SI units except temperature, which is in electron-volts. SI units were chosen over cgs units because of the gradual shift to using SI units within the plasma community. APOLLO is intended to be a fast calculator that also provides the user with the proper equations used to calculate the plasma parameters. This system is intended to be used by undergraduates taking plasma courses as well as graduate students and researchers who need a quick reference calculation.

  16. SU-F-J-208: Prompt Gamma Imaging-Based Prediction of Bragg Peak Position for Realistic Treatment Error Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xing, Y; Macq, B; Bondar, L [Universite catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Janssens, G [IBA, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To quantify the accuracy in predicting the Bragg peak position using simulated in-room measurements of prompt gamma (PG) emissions for realistic treatment error scenarios that combine several sources of errors. Methods: Prompt gamma measurements by a knife-edge slit camera were simulated using an experimentally validated analytical simulation tool. Simulations were performed, for 143 treatment error scenarios, on an anthropomorphic phantom and a pencil beam scanning plan for nasal cavity. Three types of errors were considered: translation along each axis, rotation around each axis, and CT-calibration errors with magnitude ranging respectively, between −3 and 3 mm, −5 and 5 degrees, and between −5 and +5%. We investigated the correlation between the Bragg peak (BP) shift and the horizontal shift of PG profiles. The shifts were calculated between the planned (reference) position and the position by the error scenario. The prediction error for one spot was calculated as the absolute difference between the PG profile shift and the BP shift. Results: The PG shift was significantly and strongly correlated with the BP shift for 92% of the cases (p<0.0001, Pearson correlation coefficient R>0.8). Moderate but significant correlations were obtained for all cases that considered only CT-calibration errors and for 1 case that combined translation and CT-errors (p<0.0001, R ranged between 0.61 and 0.8). The average prediction errors for the simulated scenarios ranged between 0.08±0.07 and 1.67±1.3 mm (grand mean 0.66±0.76 mm). The prediction error was moderately correlated with the value of the BP shift (p=0, R=0.64). For the simulated scenarios the average BP shift ranged between −8±6.5 mm and 3±1.1 mm. Scenarios that considered combinations of the largest treatment errors were associated with large BP shifts. Conclusion: Simulations of in-room measurements demonstrate that prompt gamma profiles provide reliable estimation of the Bragg peak position for

  17. Economic impacts of climate change. Flooding and salinity in scenarios, models and cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonkhoff, W.; Koops, O.; Van der Krogt, R.; Oude Essink, G.; Rietveld, E.

    2008-07-01

    In this report, climatic and economic scenarios are combined and future risks are calculated for the consequences of climate change, such as a rising sea level, flooding, extreme draughts and salinity. The calculation of these economic effects of climate change are based on climate scenarios of the KNMI (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute), TNO's RAEM model (Spatial General Economic Model), the high tide information system of the Dutch Ministry of Waterways and Public Works and the Space scanner of the Environmental Assessment Agency. Next to information on scenarios and models, this report also addresses damage calculations of flooding near Lopik and Ter Heide. The report ends with policy recommendations for adaptation policy. [mk] [nl

  18. Phasing out nuclear in Germany: scenarios of energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knopf, Brigitte; Pahle, Michael; Kondziella, Hendrik; Goetz, Mario; Bruckner, Thomas; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Stark, Hans; Rittelmeyer, Yann-Sven; Wissmann, Nele; Vitasse, Thomas

    2012-02-01

    After the German decision taken in 2011 to phase out nuclear, the authors analyse different scenarios of energy transition, and study the consequences of this phasing out in terms of energy needs provided by fossil fuel plants, of electricity price for households and for industries, and of CO 2 emissions. Independently from the development of renewable energies, the different effects of gas and coal plants replacing nuclear energy have been calculated and compared, and other possible scenarios have been explored. The author also discuss requirements in terms of governance for grid development, for a coordinated European policy of energy and climate, and for transparency and scientific follow-up

  19. Scenarios for the assessment of urban exposures after radioactive contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, D.N.G.; Guimarães, J.R.D.; Rochedo, E.R.R.

    2015-01-01

    Accidents involving radioactive material are not frequent but may include releases of radionuclides to the air, land or waterways. These releases are usually uncontrollable and may lead to doses in the public in excess of the reference levels established by regulations defined by the national regulatory agencies of each country. Although they had occurred sporadically since the last century, it was observed that, after the emergency phase, the public concern is enhanced when they feel that there is an unpreparedness of authorities responsible for remediation actions, due to the lack of definition of strategies to be adopted in the long term after such events. The aim of this work is to describe reference urban scenarios, considering the characteristics observed in residential and free access areas of urban centers. These scenarios were developed based on the counties surrounding the Brazilian nuclear power plant. Considering the counties within 50 km from the nuclear power plant, nine belong to the state of Rio de Janeiro and seven belong to São Paulo state; the highest population densities were observed in five counties of Rio de Janeiro. Based on the different types of residences and outdoor areas observed in these 16 counties, six reference scenarios for urban areas were developed including areas comprised by four types of residential houses (with low, medium and high shielding building material and houses in a row), apartments in buildings, and park areas with lawn and trees. The characteristics of each of these scenarios were raised through Google Earth images considering 1 km 2 of different locations comprised by each type of area defined. In a next step, the information obtained in each scenario shall be used in computer simulations to characterize the effects and consequences on public exposure of the application of decontamination procedures. (authors)

  20. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H; Bergmark, M

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  1. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs

  2. Comparing recent uranium supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, N.; Gufler, K.

    2014-01-01

    For more than one decade – even after the Fukushima accidents - an increase in global nuclear energy generation capacity is widely expected. At the same time a variety of uranium supply scenarios were published by industry, academics or international organizations, drawing different pictures of future uranium supply. They were created with the background of a uranium market facing several challenges. First an excursion in the uranium market price, in 2007, then reduced nuclear growth expectations after 2011, at least in non-Asian countries, also implying considerable changes to the supply side. For this publication a meta-study was carried out identifying, evaluating and comparing different recent scenarios on the availability of uranium. While there are some differences in the frame conditions (e.g. the expected uranium demand, the time fame, the considered mining projects,..), there are also notable similarities in these scenarios. This concerns long lead times for mine openings as well as the dependence on large mining projects (e.g. Olympic Dam, Cigar Lake). Generally, a decline in production in about 10 years is assumed, and thus the necessity of the timely development of mining projects is pointed out. In addition the omission of uranium from Russian nuclear weapons and the chances of keeping the changes in secondary supplies in balance with primary production have been widely discussed. Here, the production growth in Kazakhstan but also the role of the current market situation are central aspects. As another aspect the possible contribution from unconventional resources is of interest, particularly against the background of rising production costs for conventional resources. Finally, it shall be reflected how well older scenarios were able to map the reality and which trends could or could not be anticipated. It is relevant to identify which aspects in the development of mining capacities are essential for security of supply, and can therefore be regarded

  3. Scenario forecasting changes in the water balance components of the Olenek and Iindigirka river basins due to possible climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye. M. Gusev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics for the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate change scenarios of SRES family which correspond to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.

  4. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in

  5. Global sensitivity analysis for identifying important parameters of nitrogen nitrification and denitrification under model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhuowei; Shi, Liangsheng; Ye, Ming; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong

    2018-06-01

    Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. By using a new variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters for nitrogen reactive transport with simultaneous consideration of these three uncertainties. A combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture creates a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models describing the effect of soil temperature and moisture content are used to evaluate the reduction functions used for calculating actual reaction rates. The results show that for nitrogen reactive transport problem, parameter importance varies substantially among different models and scenarios. Denitrification and nitrification process is sensitive to soil moisture content status rather than to the moisture function parameter. Nitrification process becomes more important at low moisture content and low temperature. However, the changing importance of nitrification activity with respect to temperature change highly relies on the selected model. Model-averaging is suggested to assess the nitrification (or denitrification) contribution by reducing the possible model error. Despite the introduction of biochemical heterogeneity or not, fairly consistent parameter importance rank is obtained in this study: optimal denitrification rate (Kden) is the most important parameter; reference temperature (Tr) is more important than temperature coefficient (Q10); empirical constant in moisture response function (m) is the least important one. Vertical distribution of soil moisture but not temperature plays predominant role controlling nitrogen reaction. This study provides insight into the nitrogen reactive transport modeling and demonstrates an effective strategy of selecting the important parameters when future temperature and soil moisture carry uncertainties or when modelers face with multiple ways of establishing nitrogen

  6. Development of climate change scenarios to evaluate the impacts of temperature change on the energy demand in south of Quebec

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamount, D.

    2008-01-01

    'Full text': In year 2000, Hydro-Quebec Distribution began to integrate temperature change in the planning of Quebec energy demand. With the evolution of knowledge in climate change science and the availability of larger ensemble of climate projections from GCMs (Global Climate Model), the methodology has progressively improved and uncertainties are now more efficiently taken into account. Inclusion of temperature evolution in the estimation of energy demand covers two issues : 1) the adjustment of climate normals as reference values and 2) integration of the climate change scenario in long term planning (horizon 2040). Recently, the analysis of an ensemble of climate simulations produced from 17 different GCMs forced by 3 emissions scenarios for a total of 39 projections, enabled these two aspects to be effectively addressed. Following the analysis the use of linear temperature increase on a monthly basis is recommended for the needs of addressing climate change impacts on energy demand. Higher slope values are obtained during winter while lower ones are present in summer. Heating and cooling degree days have then been calculated for an optimistic, median and pessimistic climate change scenario to evaluate economic impacts of temperature change on three energy sources: hydro-power, natural gas and heating oil. The evaluation was carried out taking into account not only the temperature change scenario but demographical and economical scenarios as well. Obviously, temperature increase will cause opposite effects for the winter and summer seasons (reducing energy demand for heating purpose during winter while increasing cooling demand during summer). However, comparing energy sources, combustibles might see a more important decrease than hydro-power. Overall, the net effect of temperature change on energy demand is quite small: a reduction of 2 to 3% is projected. (author)

  7. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    respect to choices of either transporting fuel (i.e., road, rail, ship) or electricity (wire). Results from CRETM are expressed in terms of scenario- based 'visions of the future'. The scenarios considered in this ESS component of the CETP study are reference to this base line and divide according to whether the driving attributes derive from economic policy (e.g., demand growth, discount rate), environmental policy (e.g., emission taxes versus emission caps, reflecting roughly a free-market versus centrally planned economy), or technological policy (e.g., pricing and introduction rates that may favour specific technologies like Clean Coal Technologies (CCT) versus nuclear energy, versus renewable energy). The primary aim of this report is to describe in detail the analytic and databases of the CRETM and to present a series of scenario-based example results that illustrate a range of possible futures related to electricity generation in China in general and in Shandong Province specifically, over the next three decades. A detailed description of the CRETM and the supporting database is given; eight 'strawman', broad-coverage scenarios are described and evaluated; interpretations of both countrywide and Shandong focused results are provided; and future work needed to assure an optimally integrated and policy-utilitarian product are prescribed. (author)

  8. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

  9. Standard Reference Tables -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Standard Reference Tables (SRT) provide consistent reference data for the various applications that support Flight Standards Service (AFS) business processes and...

  10. Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

    2007-05-15

    Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

  11. Exposure Scenarios and Unit Dose Factors for the Hanford Immobilized Low Activity Tank Waste Performance Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    RITTMANN, P.D.

    1999-12-29

    Exposure scenarios are defined to identify potential pathways and combinations of pathways that could lead to radiation exposure from immobilized tank waste. Appropriate data and models are selected to permit calculation of dose factors for each exposure

  12. Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

  13. Intercode comparison of SBO scenario for AHWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srivastava, A.; Kumar, Rajesh; Chatterjee, B.; Vijayan, P.K.

    2015-01-01

    This paper outlines the assessment of station blackout scenario for AHWR using last version of the French best estimate computer code CATHARE2/V2.5 2 and its comparison with RELAP5/mod3.2 findings. First, it explains the modelling of main heat transport system of AHWR and isolation Condenser loop along with GDWP in CATHARE2 followed by thermal hydraulic safety assessment of station blackout scenario and comparison of predictions with RELAP5 findings. The proposed Advanced Heavy Water Reactor is a 920 MWth Thorium based vertical pressure tube type boiling light water cooled and heavy water moderated reactor. One of the important passive design features of this reactor is that the heat removal is achieved through natural circulation of primary coolant at all allowed power levels with no primary coolant pumps.The prolonged SBO has been analyzed for AHWR using best estimate code CATHARE and results are compared with already available results of RELAP5 code. The ICs are able to remove decay heat with the help of GDWP and maintain core temperatures well with-in the limit. Decay heat is removed passively by GDWP initially by sensible heating and later by boil off as seen in long term calculation done with RELAP5. It has been found in that analysis, IC system is capable to remove decay heat for more than 7 days. The decay heat removal through IC path along with passive moderator and end shield cooling keeps the integrity of different system and maintains the core temperature well below the acceptance limit

  14. Technology, safety, and costs of decommissioning reference light-water reactors following postulated accidents. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murphy, E S; Holter, G M

    1982-11-01

    Appendices contain information concerning the reference site description; reference PWR facility description; details of reference accident scenarios and resultant contamination levels; generic cleanup and decommissioning information; details of activities and manpower requirements for accident cleanup at a reference PWR; activities and manpower requirements for decommissioning at a reference PWR; costs of decommissioning at a reference PWR; cost estimating bases; safety assessment details; and details of post-accident cleanup and decommissioning at a reference BWR.

  15. Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

    2017-01-01

    The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

  16. Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan's electricity sector until 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Fung-Fei; Chou, Seng-Cho; Lu, Tai-Ken

    2013-01-01

    For this study, we constructed the following three case scenarios based on the Taiwanese government's energy policy: a normal scenario, the 2008 “Sustainable Energy Policy Convention” scenario, and the 2011 “New Energy Policy” scenario. We then employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model to compare the three case scenarios' energy mix for power generation for the next å15 years to further explore their possible impact on the electricity sector. The results provide a reference for forming future energy policies and developing strategic responses. - Highlights: • We constructed three case scenarios based on the Taiwan government's energy policy. • We employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning optimization model. • A significant gap exists between the carbon reduction target and baseline. • The carbon reduction target requires a holistic resolution needed taking seriously

  17. Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

    2005-09-07

    For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major

  18. Feature, Event, and Process Screening and Scenario Development for the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnard, R.; Barr, G.; Burch, P.; Freeze, G.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Swift, P.

    1999-01-01

    Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of post-closure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited

  19. A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario for France at the 2020 vista

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraud, P.N.

    2000-01-01

    A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario is the most probable scenario where the energy demand follows the trends of the past and where no new energy policy is implemented. This work is a complement to the three contrasted energy scenarios built in 1998 by the 'Energy 2010-2020' prospective group of the French general commission of national development. The scenario built in this study is only a reference which allows the measure the efforts made to reach political goals. The main conclusion of this scenario is the increase of the CO 2 emissions under the double effect of the economic growth and of the cessation of the nuclear program which becomes non-competitive with respect to the gas prices and actualization rates retained in the scenario. The main constraint of the energy future is incontestably the necessary fight against the greenhouse effect. (J.S.)

  20. Preliminary analyses of scenarios for potential human interference for repositories in three salt formations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-10-01

    Preliminary analyses of scenarios for human interference with the performance of a radioactive waste repository in a deep salt formation are presented. The following scenarios are analyzed: (1) the U-Tube Connection Scenario involving multiple connections between the repository and the overlying aquifer system; (2) the Single Borehole Intrusion Scenario involving penetration of the repository by an exploratory borehole that simultaneously connects the repository with overlying and underlying aquifers; and (3) the Pressure Release Scenario involving inflow of water to saturate any void space in the repository prior to creep closure with subsequent release under near lithostatic pressures following creep closure. The methodology to evaluate repository performance in these scenarios is described and this methodology is applied to reference systems in three candidate formations: bedded salt in the Palo Duro Basin, Texas; bedded salt in the Paradox Basin, Utah; and the Richton Salt Dome, Mississippi, of the Gulf Coast Salt Dome Basin

  1. Development scenario for laser fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-01-01

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

  2. PVWatts Version 1 Technical Reference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobos, A. P.

    2013-10-01

    The NREL PVWatts(TM) calculator is a web application developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) that estimates the electricity production of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on a few simple inputs. PVWatts combines a number of sub-models to predict overall system performance, and makes several hidden assumptions about performance parameters. This technical reference details the individual sub-models, documents assumptions and hidden parameters, and explains the sequence of calculations that yield the final system performance estimation.

  3. Reference design for LAMPF II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thiessen, H.A.

    1983-01-01

    A reference design for the 32-GeV LAMPF II proton accelerator is proposed. This design consists of a 30-Hz rapid-cycling synchrotron with a dc stretcher. A superiodicity 5 design with dispersion-free straight sections is suggested for both machines. Beam-dynamics calculations are partially complete and rf requirements are given. Apertures are calculated for 2 x 10 13 protons per pulse (100 μA average current). No significant problems are observed at any time in the cycle in a longitudinal beam-dynamics simulation including space charge

  4. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    . The usable and realistic ground motion maps for urban areas are generated: - either from the assumption of a "reference earthquake" - or directly, showing values of macroseimic intensity generated by a damaging, real earthquake. In the study, applying deterministic approach, earthquake scenario in macroseismic intensity ("model" earthquake scenario) for the city of Sofia is generated. The deterministic "model" intensity scenario based on assumption of a "reference earthquake" is compared with a scenario based on observed macroseimic effects caused by the damaging 2012 earthquake (MW5.6). The difference between observed (Io) and predicted (Ip) intensities values is analyzed.

  5. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

  6. Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2012-01-01

    scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

  7. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  8. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  9. Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane

    2013-01-01

    Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

  10. Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane, E-mail: praroberta@uol.com.br, E-mail: gdjian@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

  11. Differential cross sections in a thick brane world scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedraza, Omar; Arceo, R.; López, L. A.; Cerón, V. E.

    2018-04-01

    The elastic differential cross section is calculated at low energies for the elements He and Ne using an effective 4D electromagnetic potential coming from the contribution of the massive Kaluza-Klein modes of the 5D vector field in a thick brane scenario. The length scale is adjusted in the potential to compare with known experimental data and to set bounds for the parameter of the model.

  12. Tv & video engineer's reference book

    CERN Document Server

    Jackson, K G

    1991-01-01

    TV & Video Engineer's Reference Book presents an extensive examination of the basic television standards and broadcasting spectrum. It discusses the fundamental concepts in analogue and digital circuit theory. It addresses studies in the engineering mathematics, formulas, and calculations. Some of the topics covered in the book are the conductors and insulators, passive components, alternating current circuits; broadcast transmission; radio frequency propagation; electron optics in cathode ray tube; color encoding and decoding systems; television transmitters; and remote supervision of unatten

  13. Report to the NRC on guidance for preparing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises at nuclear generating stations. Draft report for comment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, G.F.; Hickey, E.E.; Moeller, M.P.; Schultz, D.H.; Bethke, G.W.

    1986-03-01

    A scenario guidance handbook was prepared to assist emergency planners in developing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises at nuclear power plants. The handbook provides guidance for the development of the objectives of an exercise, the descriptions of scenario events and responses, and the instructions to the participants. Information concerning implementation of the scenario, critiques and findings, and generation and format of scenario data are also included. Finally, examples of manual calculational techniques for producing radiological data are included as an appendix

  14. Haemostatic reference intervals in pregnancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Szecsi, Pal Bela; Jørgensen, Maja; Klajnbard, Anna

    2010-01-01

    largely unchanged during pregnancy, delivery, and postpartum and were within non-pregnant reference intervals. However, levels of fibrinogen, D-dimer, and coagulation factors VII, VIII, and IX increased markedly. Protein S activity decreased substantially, while free protein S decreased slightly and total......Haemostatic reference intervals are generally based on samples from non-pregnant women. Thus, they may not be relevant to pregnant women, a problem that may hinder accurate diagnosis and treatment of haemostatic disorders during pregnancy. In this study, we establish gestational age......-20, 21-28, 29-34, 35-42, at active labor, and on postpartum days 1 and 2. Reference intervals for each gestational period using only the uncomplicated pregnancies were calculated in all 391 women for activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), fibrinogen, fibrin D-dimer, antithrombin, free protein S...

  15. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  16. Research study for extremely unlikely scenario of high level waste disposal: Part 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohkubo, Hiroo

    1999-02-01

    In this research, first, event and process relevant to the key words (or scenario initiator) such as volcanism have been identified and, especially a middle-scale eruption scenario including pyroclastic flows has been analyzed as the catastrophic scenario, which inspires ordinary people to have tremendous concern. Secondly, based upon the characteristic events and processes of each scenario considered in the above and through the research of existing model of such risk, quantitative concept (release amount magnitude, release mode, release form, frequency of release, probability etc.) and impact on repository system, facility and environment have been analyzed, defended and defined. Model which can assess and analyze such impact has been built. Using these models, risks directly or indirectly caused by HLW repository have been calculated. Finally, the process for assessing the consequence of volcanism scenario and its risk calculated by the model developed in the above have been visualized, and presented by comparing with other risks. (author)

  17. Artificial neural network surrogate development of equivalence models for nuclear data uncertainty propagation in scenario studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivtchik Guillaume

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Scenario studies simulate the whole fuel cycle over a period of time, from extraction of natural resources to geological storage. Through the comparison of different reactor fleet evolutions and fuel management options, they constitute a decision-making support. Consequently uncertainty propagation studies, which are necessary to assess the robustness of the studies, are strategic. Among numerous types of physical model in scenario computation that generate uncertainty, the equivalence models, built for calculating fresh fuel enrichment (for instance plutonium content in PWR MOX so as to be representative of nominal fuel behavior, are very important. The equivalence condition is generally formulated in terms of end-of-cycle mean core reactivity. As this results from a physical computation, it is therefore associated with an uncertainty. A state-of-the-art of equivalence models is exposed and discussed. It is shown that the existing equivalent models implemented in scenario codes, such as COSI6, are not suited to uncertainty propagation computation, for the following reasons: (i existing analytical models neglect irradiation, which has a strong impact on the result and its uncertainty; (ii current black-box models are not suited to cross-section perturbations management; and (iii models based on transport and depletion codes are too time-consuming for stochastic uncertainty propagation. A new type of equivalence model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN has been developed, constructed with data calculated with neutron transport and depletion codes. The model inputs are the fresh fuel isotopy, the irradiation parameters (burnup, core fractionation, etc., cross-sections perturbations and the equivalence criterion (for instance the core target reactivity in pcm at the end of the irradiation cycle. The model output is the fresh fuel content such that target reactivity is reached at the end of the irradiation cycle. Those models are built and

  18. SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King-Clayton, L.M.; Chapman, N.A.; Kautsky, F.; Svensson, N.O.; Ledoux, E.

    1995-12-01

    The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such as ice loading, development of permafrost, temperature changes and sea level changes are considered in terms of their impact on hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry, rock stress and surface environments. 183 refs

  19. SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King-Clayton, L M; Chapman, N A [QuantiSci Ltd, Melton Mowbray (United Kingdom); Kautsky, F [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Svensson, N O [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Quaternary Geology; Marsily, G de [Univ. VI Paris (France); Ledoux, E [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines, 77 - Fontainebleau (France)

    1995-12-01

    The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such as ice loading, development of permafrost, temperature changes and sea level changes are considered in terms of their impact on hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry, rock stress and surface environments. 183 refs.

  20. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  1. 2002 reference document; Document de reference 2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-07-01

    This 2002 reference document of the group Areva, provides information on the society. Organized in seven chapters, it presents the persons responsible for the reference document and for auditing the financial statements, information pertaining to the transaction, general information on the company and share capital, information on company operation, changes and future prospects, assets, financial position, financial performance, information on company management and executive board and supervisory board, recent developments and future prospects. (A.L.B.)

  2. Macro-economic and energy scenarios for Japan through the long-term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankin, Shuichi

    1986-03-01

    As one of studies and systems analyses on the role of VHTR and process heat utilization in future energy systems, long-term macro economic and energy scenarios of Japan until the year 2030 have been generated. This paper presents,; 1) the outline of the long-term macro econometric model and the energy system dynamics model by which these scenarios were generated, 2) back grounds and prospects on future societies of Japan and exogeneous assumptions for calculations, and 3) macro energy and economic scenarios generated. Reflecting the present economic prospects, these scenarios are seemed to be of extremely low-growth type, however, the role of VHTR and its energy systems could be prospected clealy to play a large and important role within these scenario regions. Basic philosophies of scenario generations are also mentioned in this paper. (author)

  3. ITER safety and operational scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimomura, Y.; Saji, G.

    1998-01-01

    The safety and environmental characteristics of ITER and its operational scenario are described. Fusion has built-in safety characteristics without depending on layers of safety protection systems. Safety considerations are integrated in the design by making use of the intrinsic safety characteristics of fusion adequate to the moderate hazard inventories. In addition to this, a systematic nuclear safety approach has been applied to the design of ITER. The safety assessment of the design shows how ITER will safely accommodate uncertainties, flexibility of plasma operations, and experimental components, which is fundamental in ITER, the first experimental fusion reactor. The operation of ITER will progress step by step from hydrogen plasma operation with low plasma current, low magnetic field, short pulse and low duty factor without fusion power to deuterium-tritium plasma operation with full plasma current, full magnetic field, long pulse and high duty factor with full fusion power. In each step, characteristics of plasma and optimization of plasma operation will be studied which will significantly reduce uncertainties and frequency/severity of plasma transient events in the next step. This approach enhances reliability of ITER operation. (orig.)

  4. Project scenarios for bitumen upgrading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koppel, P.E.; Mazurek, W.L.; Harji, A.

    2002-01-01

    The established reserves of Alberta's heavy oil resources are 178 billion barrels, and potential recoverable reserves are 315 billion barrels. The challenge of production includes the logistics of recovery, upgrading and transportation to market. Utilization of the bitumen is not simple because bitumen is too viscous to transport by pipeline. In addition, it is not processable by most existing refineries unless it can be upgraded through dilution. This paper examined different factors regarding the economic viability of various upgrading methods of a wide range of bitumen feedstocks. The study also examined the sensitivity of refinery demand to the prices of these feedstocks, along with the competitiveness among bitumen-based feedstock and conventional crudes. Western Canada, Ontario and the PADD II district in the United States are the 3 major markets for western Canadian bitumen based feedstock, the demand for which depends on refinery configurations and asphalt demand. This paper described the following 4 generic scenarios that describe Alberta bitumen upgrading projects: (1) adjacent to open pit mines, (2) adjacent to steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) facilities, (3) remotely located from resource production at an existing refinery, and (4) pipeline bitumen. It was noted that producers should determine the best way to upgrade the bitumen to ensure there is an economic market for the product, but they should also be aware not to over process the bitumen so as not to leave existing refinery facilities under-utilized. 2 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

  5. Uranium tailings reference materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.W.; Steger, H.F.; Bowman, W.S.

    1984-01-01

    Samples of uranium tailings from Bancroft and Elliot Lake, Ontario, and from Beaverlodge and Rabbit Lake, Saskatchewan, have been prepared as compositional reference materials at the request of the National Uranium Tailings Research Program. The four samples, UTS-1 to UTS-4, were ground to minus 104 μm, each mixed in one lot and bottled in 200-g units for UTS-1 to UTS-3 and in 100-g units for UTS-4. The materials were tested for homogeneity with respect to uranium by neutron activation analysis and to iron by an acid-decomposition atomic absorption procedure. In a free choice analytical program, 18 laboratories contributed results for one or more of total iron, titanium, aluminum, calcium, barium, uranium, thorium, total sulphur, and sulphate for all four samples, and for nickel and arsenic in UTS-4 only. Based on a statistical analysis of the data, recommended values were assigned to all elements/constituents, except for sulphate in UTS-3 and nickel in UTS-4. The radioactivity of thorium-230, radium-226, lead-210, and polonium-210 in UTS-1 to UTS-4 and of thorium-232, radium-228, and thorium-228 in UTS-1 and UTS-2 was determined in a radioanalytical program composed of eight laboratories. Recommended values for the radioactivities and associated parameters were calculated by a statistical treatment of the results

  6. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retèl Valesca P

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

  7. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  8. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Traffic emission modelling. Model comparision and alternative scenarios. Sub-report; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. Verkehrsemissionsmodellierung. Modellvergleich und Alternative Szenarien. Teilbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen [Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER); Joerss, Wolfram [Institut fuer Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung gGmbH (IZT), Berlin (Germany)

    2013-06-15

    The modeling of the reference scenario and the various reduction scenarios in PAREST was based on the Central System of Emissions (CSE) (CSE, 2007). Emissions from road traffic were calculated by using the traffic emission model TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) and fed into the CSE. The version TREMOD 4.17 has been used. The resulting emission levels in PAREST reference scenario were supplemented by the emission-reducing effect of the implementation of the future Euro 5 and 6 emission standards for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles in combination with the truck toll extension. [German] Die Modellierung des Referenzszenarios und der verschiedenen Minderungsszenarien in PAREST erfolgte auf Grundlage des Zentralen System Emissionen (ZSE) (ZSE, 2007). Emissionen aus dem Strassenverkehr wurden mit Hilfe des Verkehrsemissionsmodells TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) berechnet und in das ZSE eingespeist. Dabei wurde die Version TREMOD 4.17 verwendet. Die daraus resultierenden Emissionsmengen wurden im PAREST-Referenzszenario um die emissionsmindernde Wirkung der zukuenftigen Implementierung der Abgasnormen Euro 5 und 6 fuer Pkw und leichte Nutzfahrzeuge sowie Euro VI fuer schwere Nutzfahrzeuge in Kombination einer Erweiterung der Lkw-Maut ergaenzt. Die Berechnung der Emissionen des Referenzszenarios wurde auf Grundlage des Inlandsprinzips sowie des Energiebilanzprinzips durchgefuehrt. Die auf dieser Grundlage berechneten Emissionen fuer das Basisjahr 2005 und fuer die Referenzjahre 2010, 2015 und 2020 unterscheiden sich teilweise erheblich von den mit Hilfe des Modells TREMOVE (dem von der EU Kommission verwendeten Modell fuer mobile Quellen) berechneten Emissionen.

  9. New Concepts in Digital Reference

    CERN Document Server

    Lankes, R David

    2009-01-01

    Let us start with a simple scenario: a man asks a woman 'how high is Mount Everest?' The woman replies '29,029 feet'. Nothing could be simpler. Now let us suppose that rather than standing in a room, or sitting on a bus, the man is at his desk and the woman is 300 miles away with the conversation taking place using e-mail. Still simple? Certainly - it happens every day. So why all the bother about digital (virtual, electronic, chat, etc.) reference? If the man is a pilot flying over Mount Everest, the answer matters. If you are a lawyer going to court, the identity of the woman is very importa

  10. Analyses on the Changes of Grazing Capacity in the Three-River Headwaters Region of China under Various Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongrong Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available On the livestock production in the Three-River Headwaters region (TRHR in the macrocontext of climatic change, this study analyzed the possible changing trends of the net primary productivity (NPP of local grasslands under four RCPs scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 during 2010–2030 with the model estimation, and the grass yield and theoretical grazing capacity under each scenario were further qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed. The results indicate that the grassland productivity in the TRHR will be unstable under all the four scenarios. The grassland productivity will be greatly influenced by the fluctuations of precipitation and the temperature fluctuations will also play an important role during some periods. The local grassland productivity will decrease to some degree during 2010–2020 and then will fluctuate and increase slowly during 2020–2030.The theoretical grazing capacity was analyzed in this study and calculated on the basis of the grass yield. The result indicates that the theoretical grazing capacity ranges from 4 million sheep to 5 million sheep under the four scenarios and it can provide quantitative information reference for decision making on how to determine the reasonable grazing capacity, promote the sustainable development of grasslands, and so forth.

  11. Scenario exploration approach for performance assessment of geological disposal system (III)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

    1999-02-01

    In order to underpin and defend the definition of calculation cases and simplified PA models, we discuss a complementary approach which reverses the standard procedure of scenario development and case definition described above. We design a set of extremely flexible mathematical tools called Shadow Models' for the particular purpose of 'scanning' the whole parameter/model space which has not yet been rejected by the experts rather than scrutinizing it. The SSTM was used extensively to generate an ensemble of stochastic realizations of the possible nuclide transport behaviour within the EBS. The principal component analysis on the ensemble and the analysis of the contribution of input parameter variations to the output variations reconstructed the existing knowledge concerning the sensitivity structure for the reference cases in a more formal and quantitative way. In addition, an analysis on the subset of realizations corresponding to high peak release rate revealed a critical combination and sequence of events that could potentially lead to a significantly higher release rate than that of the reference cases. In the current financial year, the objective of the study is: (1) To extend the methodology further and develop a shadow model for nuclide transport through near-field host rock which is represented as a time-dependent channel network with dual porosity; (2) To apply the near-field shadow transport model in the stochastic mode and explore the sensitivity structure; (3) To run the near-field shadow transport model in the deterministic mode to investigate effects of some physical events. (author)

  12. Relevance of biotic pathways to the long-term regulation of nuclear-waste disposal. Topical report on reference western arid low-level sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKenzie, D.H.; Cadwell, L.L.; Eberhardt, L.E.; Kennedy, W.E. Jr.; Peloquin, R.A.; Simmons, M.A.

    1982-10-01

    The purpose of the work reported here was to develop an order of magnitude estimate for the potential dose to man resulting from biotic transport mechanisms at a reference western arid low-level waste site. A description of the reference site is presented that includes the waste inventories, site characteristics and biological communities. Parameter values for biotic transport processes are based on data reported in current literature. Transport and exposure scenarios are developed for assessing biotic transport during 100 years following site closure. Calculations of radionuclide decay and waste container decomposition are made to estimate the quantities available for biotic transport. Dose to a man occupying the reference site following the 100 years of biotic transport are calculated. These dose estimates are compared to dose estimates for the intruder-agricultural scenario reported in the DEIS for 10 CFR 61 (NRC). Dose to man estimates as a result of biotic transport are estimated to be of the same order of magnitude as the dose resulting from the more commonly evaluated human intrusion scenario. The reported lack of potential importance of biotic transport at low-level waste sites in earlier assessment studies is not confirmed by the findings presented in this report. These results indicate that biotic transport has the potential to influence low-level waste site performance. Through biotic transport, radionuclides may be moved to locations where they can enter exposure pathways to man

  13. Radiation dose evaluation based on exposure scenario during the operation of radioactive waste disposal facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Jeong Hyoun; Kim Chang Lak; Choi, Heui Joo; Park, Joo Wan

    1999-01-01

    Radiation dose to worker in disposal facility was calculated by using point kernel MICROSHIELD V5.02 computer code based on exposure scenarios. An conceptual design model for disposal vaults in disposal facility was used for object of shielding calculation model. Selected radionuclides and their activities among radioactive wastes from nuclear power plants were assumed as radiation sources for the exposure calculation. Annual radiation doses to crane workers and to people working on disposal vaults were calculated according to exposure time and distance from the sources with conservative operation scenarios. The scenarios used for this study were based on assumption for representing disposal activities in a future Korean near surface disposal facility. Calculated exposure rates to worker during normal disposal work were very low comparing with annual allowable limit for radiation worker

  14. Study on scenario evaluation methodology for decommissioning nuclear facilities using fuzzy logic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuhashi, Kazuya; Yanagihara, Satoshi

    2015-01-01

    Since there are many scenarios of the process from start to completion of a decommissioning project, it is important to study scenarios of decommissioning by evaluating such properties as safety, cost, and technology. An optimum scenario with the highest feasibility in accordance with the facility and environmental conditions should be selected on the basis of the results of the study. For analyzing a scenario of decommissioning, we prepared structured work packages by using the work breakdown structures (WBS) method together with qualitative evaluation of the technologies being applied to work packages located at the bottom (the third level) of the WBS. A calculation model was constructed to evaluate the feasibility of a scenario where fuzzy logic is applied to derive a score of technology performance and TOPSIS is applied for getting a feasibility grade of the scenario from technical performance scoring. As a case study, the model was applied to the debris removal scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant to confirm its applicability. Two scenarios, underwater and in-air debris removal cases, were characterized by extracting the work packages with the lowest feasibility and by obtaining total average scores of the scenarios. It is confirmed that the methodology developed is useful for the scenario evaluation of decommissioning nuclear facilities. (author)

  15. Low and intermediate level waste in SFR-1. Reference Waste Inventory 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almkvist, Lisa (Vattenfall Power Consultant AB, Stockholm (SE)); Gordon, Anna (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (SE))

    2007-11-15

    The objective with this report is to describe all the waste and the waste package that is expected to be deposited in SFR 1 at the time of closure. The report will form the basis for the release calculation in the safety analysis for SFR 1. Three different scenarios are explored in this report; the waste inventory is based on an estimated operational lifetime of the Swedish nuclear power plants of 50 and 60 years and that closure of the SFR 1 repository will take place in 2040 or 2050 respectively. The third scenario is where the repository is full (one part where the activity adds up to 1016 Bq and one part where the repository is considered full regarding volume). In the report, data about geometries, weights, materials, chemicals and radionuclide are given. No chemotoxic material has been identified in the waste. The inventory is estimated using the Prosit-interface which extracts information from the Triumf database. The inventory is based on so called 'waste types' and the waste types' 'reference waste package'. The reference waste package combined with a prognosis of the number of waste packages to be delivered to SFR 1 gives the final waste inventory for SFR 1. All reference waste packages are thoroughly described in the appendices of this report. The reference waste packages are as far as possible based on actual experiences and measurements. The radionuclide inventory is also based on actual measurements. The inventory is based on measurements of 60Co and 137Cs in waste packages and on measurements of 239Pu and 240Pu in reactor water. Other nuclides in the inventory are calculated with correlation factors

  16. Low and intermediate level waste in SFR-1. Reference Waste Inventory 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almkvist, Lisa; Gordon, Ann

    2007-11-01

    The objective with this report is to describe all the waste and the waste package that is expected to be deposited in SFR 1 at the time of closure. The report will form the basis for the release calculation in the safety analysis for SFR 1. Three different scenarios are explored in this report; the waste inventory is based on an estimated operational lifetime of the Swedish nuclear power plants of 50 and 60 years and that closure of the SFR 1 repository will take place in 2040 or 2050 respectively. The third scenario is where the repository is full (one part where the activity adds up to 1016 Bq and one part where the repository is considered full regarding volume). In the report, data about geometries, weights, materials, chemicals and radionuclide are given. No chemotoxic material has been identified in the waste. The inventory is estimated using the Prosit-interface which extracts information from the Triumf database. The inventory is based on so called 'waste types' and the waste types' 'reference waste package'. The reference waste package combined with a prognosis of the number of waste packages to be delivered to SFR 1 gives the final waste inventory for SFR 1. All reference waste packages are thoroughly described in the appendices of this report. The reference waste packages are as far as possible based on actual experiences and measurements. The radionuclide inventory is also based on actual measurements. The inventory is based on measurements of 60 Co and 137 Cs in waste packages and on measurements of 239 Pu and 240 Pu in reactor water. Other nuclides in the inventory are calculated with correlation factors

  17. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-10-01

    The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2

  18. CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

    2010-01-01

    The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

  19. VBE reference framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Afsarmanesh, H.; Camarinha-Matos, L.M.; Ermilova, E.; Camarinha-Matos, L.M.; Afsarmanesh, H.; Ollus, M.

    2008-01-01

    Defining a comprehensive and generic "reference framework" for Virtual organizations Breeding Environments (VBEs), addressing all their features and characteristics, is challenging. While the definition and modeling of VBEs has become more formalized during the last five years, "reference models"

  20. CMS Statistics Reference Booklet

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The annual CMS Statistics reference booklet provides a quick reference for summary information about health expenditures and the Medicare and Medicaid health...

  1. Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

    2017-12-01

    Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

  2. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  3. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  4. Changing quantum reference frames

    OpenAIRE

    Palmer, Matthew C.; Girelli, Florian; Bartlett, Stephen D.

    2013-01-01

    We consider the process of changing reference frames in the case where the reference frames are quantum systems. We find that, as part of this process, decoherence is necessarily induced on any quantum system described relative to these frames. We explore this process with examples involving reference frames for phase and orientation. Quantifying the effect of changing quantum reference frames serves as a first step in developing a relativity principle for theories in which all objects includ...

  5. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  6. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

  7. Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hosmer, Hilary

    2000-01-01

    .... Visual attack scenarios help defenders see system ambiguities, imprecision, vulnerabilities and omissions, thus speeding up risk analysis, requirements gathering, safeguard selection, cryptographic...

  8. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  9. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  10. Final disposal room structural response calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stone, C.M.

    1997-08-01

    Finite element calculations have been performed to determine the structural response of waste-filled disposal rooms at the WIPP for a period of 10,000 years after emplacement of the waste. The calculations were performed to generate the porosity surface data for the final set of compliance calculations. The most recent reference data for the stratigraphy, waste characterization, gas generation potential, and nonlinear material response have been brought together for this final set of calculations

  11. Evaluation of Nuclide Release Scenarios for a Hypothetical LILW Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Jeong, Jong Tae

    2010-11-01

    A program for the safety assessment and performance evaluation of a low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste (LILW) repository system has been developed. Utilizing GoldSim (GoldSim, 2006), the program evaluates nuclide release and transport into the geosphere and biosphere under various disruptive natural and manmade events and scenarios that can occur after a waste package failure. We envisaged and illustrated these events and scenarios as occurring after the closure of a hypothetical LILW repository, and they included the degradation of various manmade barriers, pumping well drilling, and natural disruptions such as the sudden formation of a preferential flow pathway in the far-field area of the repository. Possible enhancement of nuclide transport facilitated by colloids or chelating agents is also dealt with. We used the newly-developed GoldSim template program, which is capable of various nuclide release scenarios and is greatly suited for simulating a potential repository given the geological circumstances in Korea, to create the detailed source term and near-field release scheme, various nuclide transport modes in the far-field geosphere area, and the biosphere transfer. Even though all parameter values applied to the hypothetical repository were assumed, the illustrative results, particularly the probabilistic calculations and sensitivity studies, may be informative under various scenarios

  12. Economic study of fuel scenarios for a reload

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz S, J. J.; Castillo M, J. A.; Montes T, J. L.; Perusquia del C, R.

    2014-10-01

    In this work the results to plan different scenarios for designing a nuclear fuel reload are shown. Given a reload with specific energy requirements, the objective is to verify the feasibility of using either a greater number of fresh fuel with less uranium enrichment, or otherwise reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies and therefore they have a higher average uranium enrichment. For the study a cycle balance 18-month basis with 112 fresh assemblies divided into two lots, with energy produced of 10,075 Mwd/Tu was used. For the designs under the mentioned scenarios, the heuristic techniques known as taboo search and neural networks were used. To verify the feasibility of obtained reloads an economic study of the reload costs was performed. The results showed that is possible to design reloads under the two scenarios, but was more complicated decrease the amount of fresh fuel assemblies. In both scenarios was possible to reduce manufacturing costs of fuel and according to purely static calculation, it would be possible to increase the energy produced. (Author)

  13. Construction of Chinese reference female phantom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng Yinxiangzi; Liu Lixing; Xia Xiaobin

    2013-01-01

    In this study, a Voxel-based Chinese Reference female Phantom (VCRP-woman) is developed from an individual female phantom which was based on high resolution cross-sectional color photographs. An in-house C ++ program was developed to adjust the phantom. Finally, a reference female phantom with have the same height, weighte and similar organs masses with the Chinese reference adult female data. The adjusted phantom is then imported to MCNPX to calculate the organs absorbed dose and effective dose conversion coefficients. Results are compared between VCRP-woman and the ICRP adult reference female phantom. (authors)

  14. Analysis of a Spanish energy scenario with Generation IV nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ochoa, Raquel; Jimenez, Gonzalo; Perez-Martin, Sara

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Spanish energy scenario for the hypothetical deployment of Gen-IV SFR reactors. • Availability of national resources is assessed, considering SFR’s breeding. • An assessment of the impact of transmuting MA on the final repository. • SERPENT code with own pre- and post-processing tools were employed. • The employed SFR core design is based on the specifications of the CP-ESFR. - Abstract: The advantages of fast-spectrum reactors consist not only of an efficient use of fuel through the breeding of fissile material and the use of natural or depleted uranium, but also of the potential reduction of the amount of actinides such as americium and neptunium contained in the irradiated fuel. The first aspect means a guaranteed future nuclear fuel supply. The second fact is key for high-level radioactive waste management, because these elements are the main responsible for the radioactivity of the irradiated fuel in the long term. The present study aims to analyze the hypothetical deployment of a Gen-IV Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) fleet in Spain. A nuclear fleet of fast reactors would enable a fuel cycle strategy different than the open cycle, currently adopted by most of the countries with nuclear power. A transition from the current Gen-II to Gen-IV fleet is envisaged through an intermediate deployment of Gen-III reactors. Fuel reprocessing from the Gen-II and Gen-III Light Water Reactors (LWR) has been considered. In the so-called advanced fuel cycle, the reprocessed fuel used to produce energy will breed new fissile fuel and transmute minor actinides at the same time. A reference case scenario has been postulated and further sensitivity studies have been performed to analyze the impact of the different parameters on the required reactor fleet. The potential capability of Spain to supply the required fleet for the reference scenario using national resources has been verified. Finally, some consequences on irradiated final fuel inventory are assessed

  15. IAEA biological reference materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parr, R.M.; Schelenz, R.; Ballestra, S.

    1988-01-01

    The Analytical Quality Control Services programme of the IAEA encompasses a wide variety of intercomparisons and reference materials. This paper reviews only those aspects of the subject having to do with biological reference materials. The 1988 programme foresees 13 new intercomparison exercises, one for major, minor and trace elements, five for radionuclides, and seven for stable isotopes. Twenty-two natural matrix biological reference materials are available: twelve for major, minor and trace elements, six for radionuclides, and four for chlorinated hydrocarbons. Seven new intercomparisons and reference materials are in preparation or under active consideration. Guidelines on the correct use of reference materials are being prepared for publication in 1989 in consultation with other major international producers and users of biological reference materials. The IAEA database on available reference materials is being updated and expanded in scope, and a new publication is planned for 1989. (orig.)

  16. Estimation of incremental reactivities for multiple day scenarios: an application to ethane and dimethyoxymethane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockwell, William R.; Geiger, Harald; Becker, Karl H.

    Single-day scenarios are used to calculate incremental reactivities by definition (Carter, J. Air Waste Management Assoc. 44 (1994) 881-899.) but even unreactive organic compounds may have a non-negligible effect on ozone concentrations if multiple-day scenarios are considered. The concentration of unreactive compounds and their products may build up over a multiple-day period and the oxidation products may be highly reactive or highly unreactive affecting the overall incremental reactivity of the organic compound. We have developed a method for calculating incremental reactivities for multiple days based on a standard scenario for polluted European conditions. This method was used to estimate maximum incremental reactivities (MIR) and maximum ozone incremental reactivities (MOIR) for ethane and dimethyoxymethane for scenarios ranging from 1 to 6 days. It was found that the incremental reactivities increased as the length of the simulation period increased. The MIR of ethane increased faster than the value for dimethyoxymethane as the scenarios became longer. The MOIRs of ethane and dimethyoxymethane increased but the change was more modest for scenarios longer than 3 days. MOIRs of both volatile organic compounds were equal within the uncertainties of their chemical mechanisms by the 5 day scenario. These results show that dimethyoxymethane has an ozone forming potential on a per mass basis that is only somewhat greater than ethane if multiple-day scenarios are considered.

  17. TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

    2014-01-01

    TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

  18. Scenarios for Russia's natural gas exports to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paltsev, Sergey

    2014-01-01

    Russia is an important energy supplier as it holds the world's largest natural gas reserves and it is the world's largest exporter of natural gas. Despite a recent reduction in Russia's exports to Europe, it plans to build new pipelines. We explore the long-term (up to 2050) scenarios of Russian natural gas exports to Europe and Asia using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. We found that over the next 20–40 years natural gas can still play a substantial role in Russian exports and there are substantial reserves to support a development of the gas-oriented energy system both in Russia and in its current and potential gas importers. Based on the considered scenarios, Russia does not need any new pipeline capacity to the EU unless it wants to diversify its export routes to supply the EU without any gas transit via Ukraine and Belarus. Asian markets are attractive to Russian gas and substantial volumes may be exported there. Relatively cheap shale gas in China may sufficiently alter the prospects of Russian gas, especially in Asian markets. In the Reference scenario, exports of natural gas grow from Russia's current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. Alternative scenarios provide a wider range of projections, with a share of Russian gas exports shipped to Asian markets rising to more than 30% by 2030 and almost 50% in 2050. Europe's reliance on LNG imports increases, while it still maintains sizable imports from Russia. - Highlights: • In the Reference scenario exports of natural gas grow from Russia’s current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. • In alternative scenarios a share of Russian exports to Asian markets is rising to about 30% by 2030 and 50 % in 2050. • Cheap shale gas in China can sufficiently alter Russian natural gas export. • Reduction in nuclear generation in Europe can lead to increased exports of natural gas from

  19. Buoyant plume calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penner, J.E.; Haselman, L.C.; Edwards, L.L.

    1985-01-01

    Smoke from raging fires produced in the aftermath of a major nuclear exchange has been predicted to cause large decreases in surface temperatures. However, the extent of the decrease and even the sign of the temperature change, depend on how the smoke is distributed with altitude. We present a model capable of evaluating the initial distribution of lofted smoke above a massive fire. Calculations are shown for a two-dimensional slab version of the model and a full three-dimensional version. The model has been evaluated by simulating smoke heights for the Hamburg firestorm of 1943 and a smaller scale oil fire which occurred in Long Beach in 1958. Our plume heights for these fires are compared to those predicted by the classical Morton-Taylor-Turner theory for weakly buoyant plumes. We consider the effect of the added buoyancy caused by condensation of water-laden ground level air being carried to high altitude with the convection column as well as the effects of background wind on the calculated smoke plume heights for several fire intensities. We find that the rise height of the plume depends on the assumed background atmospheric conditions as well as the fire intensity. Little smoke is injected into the stratosphere unless the fire is unusually intense, or atmospheric conditions are more unstable than we have assumed. For intense fires significant amounts of water vapor are condensed raising the possibility of early scavenging of smoke particles by precipitation. 26 references, 11 figures

  20. Human health impacts for renewable energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefevre, Mireille; Gschwind, Benoit; Blanc, Isabelle; Ranchin, Thierry; Cofala, Janusz; Fuss, Sabine

    2013-01-01

    This article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM 2.5 concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM 2.5 concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario. (orig.)

  1. Toward Managing & Automating CyberCIEGE Scenario Definition File Creation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johns, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    .... These scenarios are written CyberCIEGE Scenarios Definition Language. Unfortunately, the trade-off for flexibility, extendibility and fully customizable Scenarios is syntax complexity in the Scenarios definition language...

  2. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  3. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  4. Some issues in the ghost condensation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anisimov, A.

    2004-01-01

    In the recently proposed 'ghost condensation' scenario a model of consistent infrared modification of gravity was suggested. We first review the basic ideas of this scenario. We discuss various phenomenological aspects of the ghost condensation, such as stability of the condensate, bounds on the UV cut-off scale of the corresponding effective field theory and other issues. (author)

  5. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  6. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges...

  7. Numerical calculations in quantum field theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rebbi, C.

    1984-01-01

    Four lecture notes are included: (1) motivation for numerical calculations in Quantum Field Theory; (2) numerical simulation methods; (3) Monte Carlo studies of Quantum Chromo Dynamics; and (4) systems with fermions. 23 references

  8. Identification of scenarios in the safety assessment of a deep geological site for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escalier des Orres, P.; Devillers, C.; Cernes, A.

    1990-01-01

    The selection and qualification procedure of a site for radioactive wastes disposal in a deep geologic formation, has begun in France in the early eighties. The public authorities, on ANDRA's proposal, has preselected in 1987 four sites, each of them corresponding to a type of geologic formations (granite, clay, salt and shale). Within two years, one of these sites will be chosen for the location of an underground laboratory. The safety analysis for the site's qualification uses evolution scenarios of the repository and its environment, chosen according to a deterministic method. With an appropriate detail level, are defined a reference scenario and scenario with random events. 4 refs., 1 tab [fr

  9. Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

    2014-01-01

    The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

  10. Decommissioning of offshore oil and gas facilities: a comparative assessment of different scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekins, Paul; Vanner, Robin; Firebrace, James

    2006-06-01

    A material and energy flow analysis, with corresponding financial flows, was carried out for different decommissioning scenarios for the different elements of an offshore oil and gas structure. A comparative assessment was made of the non-financial (especially environmental) outcomes of the different scenarios, with the reference scenario being to leave all structures in situ, while other scenarios envisaged leaving them on the seabed or removing them to shore for recycling and disposal. The costs of each scenario, when compared with the reference scenario, give an implicit valuation of the non-financial outcomes (e.g. environmental improvements), should that scenario be adopted by society. The paper concludes that it is not clear that the removal of the topsides and jackets of large steel structures to shore, as currently required by regulations, is environmentally justified; that concrete structures should certainly be left in place; and that leaving footings, cuttings and pipelines in place, with subsequent monitoring, would also be justified unless very large values were placed by society on a clear seabed and trawling access.

  11. NPP accident scenario. Which emergency measures are planned in Switzerland?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flury, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    As a consequence of the reactor accident in Fukushima the Swiss government has ordered an extensive analysis of emergency planning in case of a NPP accident Switzerland. A special working group has analyzed the possible improvements of Swiss emergency planning based on the experiences in Japan. Under the special direction of the Bundesamt fuer Bevoelkerungsschutz (BABS) the agreed improvements were integrated into the emergency concept. The reference scenarios have been re-assessed and the zone concept adapted. The emergency measures include shelter-type rooms (basement or window-less rooms), the preventive distribution of iodine pills, measures concerning agriculture, aquatic systems, preventive evacuation, traffic regulations, and delayed evacuation.

  12. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Z.

    1992-01-01

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  13. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...

  14. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  15. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  16. Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

    2000-01-01

    The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

  17. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

  18. Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

    2017-12-01

    The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

  19. NATIONAL STORMWATER CALCULATOR USER'S GUIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Stormwater Calculator is a simple to use tool for computing small site hydrology for any location within the US. It estimates the amount of stormwater runoff generated from a site under different development and control scenarios over a long term period of historical rainfall. The analysis takes into account local soil conditions, slope, land cover and meteorology. Different types of low impact development (LID) practices (also known as green infrastructure) can be employed to help capture and retain rainfall on-site. Future climate change scenarios taken from internationally recognized climate change projections can also be considered. The calculator provides planning level estimates of capital and maintenance costs which will allow planners and managers to evaluate and compare effectiveness and costs of LID controls.The calculator’s primary focus is informing site developers and property owners on how well they can meet a desired stormwater retention target. It can be used to answer such questions as:• What is the largest daily rainfall amount that can be captured by a site in either its pre-development, current, or post-development condition?• To what degree will storms of different magnitudes be captured on site?• What mix of LID controls can be deployed to meet a given stormwater retention target?• How well will LID controls perform under future meteorological projections made by global climate change models?• What are the relativ

  20. Haemostatic reference intervals in pregnancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Szecsi, Pal Bela; Jørgensen, Maja; Klajnbard, Anna

    2010-01-01

    Haemostatic reference intervals are generally based on samples from non-pregnant women. Thus, they may not be relevant to pregnant women, a problem that may hinder accurate diagnosis and treatment of haemostatic disorders during pregnancy. In this study, we establish gestational age-specific refe......Haemostatic reference intervals are generally based on samples from non-pregnant women. Thus, they may not be relevant to pregnant women, a problem that may hinder accurate diagnosis and treatment of haemostatic disorders during pregnancy. In this study, we establish gestational age......-specific reference intervals for coagulation tests during normal pregnancy. Eight hundred one women with expected normal pregnancies were included in the study. Of these women, 391 had no complications during pregnancy, vaginal delivery, or postpartum period. Plasma samples were obtained at gestational weeks 13......-20, 21-28, 29-34, 35-42, at active labor, and on postpartum days 1 and 2. Reference intervals for each gestational period using only the uncomplicated pregnancies were calculated in all 391 women for activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), fibrinogen, fibrin D-dimer, antithrombin, free protein S...

  1. Benchmarking of computer codes and approaches for modeling exposure scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seitz, R.R.; Rittmann, P.D.; Wood, M.I.; Cook, J.R.

    1994-08-01

    The US Department of Energy Headquarters established a performance assessment task team (PATT) to integrate the activities of DOE sites that are preparing performance assessments for the disposal of newly generated low-level waste. The PATT chartered a subteam with the task of comparing computer codes and exposure scenarios used for dose calculations in performance assessments. This report documents the efforts of the subteam. Computer codes considered in the comparison include GENII, PATHRAE-EPA, MICROSHIELD, and ISOSHLD. Calculations were also conducted using spreadsheets to provide a comparison at the most fundamental level. Calculations and modeling approaches are compared for unit radionuclide concentrations in water and soil for the ingestion, inhalation, and external dose pathways. Over 30 tables comparing inputs and results are provided

  2. Advanced ST Plasma Scenario Simulations for NSTX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kessel, C.E.; Synakowski, E.J.; Gates, D.A.; Harvey, R.W.; Kaye, S.M.; Mau, T.K.; Menard, J.; Phillips, C.K.; Taylor, G.; Wilson, R.

    2004-01-01

    Integrated scenario simulations are done for NSTX [National Spherical Torus Experiment] that address four primary milestones for developing advanced ST configurations: high β and high β N inductive discharges to study all aspects of ST physics in the high-beta regime; non-inductively sustained discharges for flattop times greater than the skin time to study the various current-drive techniques; non-inductively sustained discharges at high β for flattop times much greater than a skin time which provides the integrated advanced ST target for NSTX; and non-solenoidal start-up and plasma current ramp-up. The simulations done here use the Tokamak Simulation Code (TSC) and are based on a discharge 109070. TRANSP analysis of the discharge provided the thermal diffusivities for electrons and ions, the neutral-beam (NB) deposition profile, and other characteristics. CURRAY is used to calculate the High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating depositions and current drive. GENRAY/CQL3D is used to establish the heating and CD [current drive] deposition profiles for electron Bernstein waves (EBW). Analysis of the ideal-MHD stability is done with JSOLVER, BALMSC, and PEST2. The simulations indicate that the integrated advanced ST plasma is reachable, obtaining stable plasmas with β ∼ 40% at β N 's of 7.7-9, I P = 1.0 MA, and B T = 0.35 T. The plasma is 100% non-inductive and has a flattop of 4 skin times. The resulting global energy confinement corresponds to a multiplier of H 98(y,2) 1.5. The simulations have demonstrated the importance of HHFW heating and CD, EBW off-axis CD, strong plasma shaping, density control, and early heating/H-mode transition for producing and optimizing these plasma configurations

  3. Advanced ST plasma scenario simulations for NSTX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kessel, C.E.; Synakowski, E.J.; Gates, D.A.; Kaye, S.M.; Menard, J.; Phillips, C.K.; Taylor, G.; Wilson, R.; Harvey, R.W.; Mau, T.K.

    2005-01-01

    Integrated scenario simulations are done for NSTX that address four primary milestones for developing advanced ST configurations: high β and high β N inductive discharges to study all aspects of ST physics in the high beta regime; non-inductively sustained discharges for flattop times greater than the skin time to study the various current drive techniques; non-inductively sustained discharges at high βfor flattop times much greater than a skin time which provides the integrated advanced ST target for NSTX; and non-solenoidal startup and plasma current rampup. The simulations done here use the Tokamak Simulation Code (TSC) and are based on a discharge 109070. TRANSP analysis of the discharge provided the thermal diffusivities for electrons and ions, the neutral beam (NB) deposition profile and other characteristics. CURRAY is used to calculate the High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating depositions and current drive. GENRAY/CQL3D is used to establish the heating and CD deposition profiles for electron Bernstein waves (EBW). Analysis of the ideal MHD stability is done with JSOLVER, BALMSC, and PEST2. The simulations indicate that the integrated advanced ST plasma is reachable, obtaining stable plasmas with β ∼ 40% at β N 's of 7.7-9, I P = 1.0 MA and B T = 0.35 T. The plasma is 100% non-inductive and has a flattop of 4 skin times. The resulting global energy confinement corresponds to a multiplier of H 98(y,2 ) = 1.5. The simulations have demonstrated the importance of HHFW heating and CD, EBW off-axis CD, strong plasma shaping, density control, and early heating/H-mode transition for producing and optimizing these plasma configurations (author)

  4. Indoor air: Reference bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, D.; Staves, D.; McDonald, S.

    1989-07-01

    The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency initially established the indoor air Reference Bibliography in 1987 as an appendix to the Indoor Air Quality Implementation Plan. The document was submitted to Congress as required under Title IV--Radon Gas and Indoor Air Quality Research of the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act of 1986. The Reference Bibliography is an extensive bibliography of reference materials on indoor air pollution. The Bibliography contains over 4500 citations and continues to increase as new articles appear

  5. An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Nyun-Bae; Yun, Sun-Jin; Jeon, Eui-Chan

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the energy, environmental and economic influences of three electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using the “Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system” (LEAP) model. The reference year was 2008. Scenarios include the baseline (BL), new governmental policy (GP) and sustainable society (SS) scenarios. The growth rate of electricity demand in the GP scenario was higher than that of the BL scenario while the growth rate in the SS scenario was lower than that of the BL scenario. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in 2050 in the BL and GP scenarios were similar with current emissions. However, emissions in 2050 in the SS scenario were about 80% lower than emissions in 2008, because of the expansion of renewable electricity in spite of the phase-out of nuclear energy. While nuclear and coal-fired power plants accounted for most of the electricity generated in the BL and GP scenarios in 2050, the SS scenario projected that renewable energy would generate the most electricity in 2050. It was found that the discounted cumulative costs from 2009 to 2050 in the SS scenario would be 20 and 10% higher than that of the BL and GP scenarios, respectively. - Highlights: ► This paper analyzed three kinds of electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using LEAP model. Baseline and governmental policy scenarios focus on the electricity supply through nuclear expansion. ► Sustainable Society scenario focuses on demand management and renewable electricity. ► The latter improves energy security and reduces more GHG with the affordable cost.

  6. Analysis and prediction of reference evapotranspiration with climate change in Xiangjiang River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin-e Tao

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Reference evapotranspiration (ET0 is often used to estimate actual evapotranspiration in water balance studies. In this study, the present and future spatial distributions and temporal trends of ET0 in the Xiangjiang River Basin (XJRB in China were analyzed. ET0 during the period from 1961 to 2010 was calculated with historical meteorological data using the FAO Penman-Monteith (FAO P-M method, while ET0 during the period from 2011 to 2100 was downscaled from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 outputs under two emission scenarios, representative concentration pathway 4.5 and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP45 and RCP85, using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM. The spatial distribution and temporal trend of ET0 were interpreted with the inverse distance weighted (IDW method and Mann-Kendall test method, respectively. Results show that: (1 the mean annual ET0 of the XJRB is 1 006.3 mm during the period from 1961 to 2010, and the lowest and highest values are found in the northeast and northwest parts due to the high latitude and spatial distribution of climatic factors, respectively; (2 the SDSM performs well in simulating the present ET0 and can be used to predict the future ET0 in the XJRB; and (3 CMIP5 predicts upward trends in annual ET0 under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios during the period from 2011 to 2100. Compared with the reference period (1961–1990, ET0 increases by 9.8%, 12.6%, and 15.6% under the RCP45 scenario and 10.2%, 19.1%, and 27.3% under the RCP85 scenario during the periods from 2011 to 2040, from 2041 to 2070, and from 2071 to 2100, respectively. The predicted increasing ET0 under the RCP85 scenario is greater than that under the RCP45 scenario during the period from 2011 to 2100.

  7. Android quick APIs reference

    CERN Document Server

    Cinar, Onur

    2015-01-01

    The Android Quick APIs Reference is a condensed code and APIs reference for the new Google Android 5.0 SDK. It presents the essential Android APIs in a well-organized format that can be used as a handy reference. You won't find any technical jargon, bloated samples, drawn out history lessons, or witty stories in this book. What you will find is a software development kit and APIs reference that is concise, to the point and highly accessible. The book is packed with useful information and is a must-have for any mobile or Android app developer or programmer. In the Android Quick APIs Refe

  8. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  9. Development of a database system for the calculation of indicators of environmental pressure caused by transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giannouli, Myrsini; Samaras, Zissis; Keller, Mario

    2006-01-01

    The scope of this paper is to summarise a methodology developed for TRENDS (TRansport and ENvironment Database System-TRENDS). The main objective of TRENDS was the calculation of environmental pressure indicators caused by transport. The environmental pressures considered are associated with air...... emissions from the four main transport modes, i.e. road, rail, ships and air. In order to determine these indicators a system for calculating a range of environmental pressures due to transport was developed within a PC-based MS Access environment. Emphasis is given oil the latest features incorporated...... the production of collective results for all transport modes as well as a comparative assessment of air emissions produced by the various modes. Traffic activity and emission data obtained according to a basic (reference) scenario are displayed for the time period 1970-2020. In addition, a detailed assessment...

  10. Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economic estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodríguez, Iván Merino; Álvarez-Velarde, Francisco; Martín-Fuertes, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Four fuel cycle scenarios have been analyzed in resources and economic terms. • Scenarios involve Once-Through, Pu burning, and MA transmutation strategies. • No restrictions were found in terms of uranium and plutonium availability. • The best case cost and the impact of their uncertainties to the LCOE were analyzed. - Abstract: Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options (in coherence with PATEROS and CP-ESFR EU projects) have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economic estimates. Scenarios include: (i) the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle, (ii) full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U–Pu MOX fuel, (iii) closed fuel cycle with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet, and (iv) closed fuel cycle with MA transmutation in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS). All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for 200 years, looking for long term equilibrium mass flow achievement. The simulations were made using the TR E VOL code, capable to assess the management of the nuclear mass streams in the scenario as well as economics for the estimation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and other costs. Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (natural and depleted U, and Pu). Additionally, we have found as expected that the FR scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario. The elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires a maximum of 55% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 44 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation) or an average of 28 units of ADS plants (i.e., a peak value of 51 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the main usefulness of the provided economic results is for relative comparison of

  11. Nuclear power: An evolving scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ElBaradei, Mohamed

    2004-01-01

    The past two years have found the IAEA often in the spotlight - primarily because of our role as the world's 'nuclear watchdog', as we are sometimes referred to on the evening news. The most visible, and often controversial, peaceful nuclear application is the generation of electricity, the focus of this article largely from a European perspective. At the end of last year there were 440 nuclear power units operating worldwide. Together, they supply about 16% of the world's electricity. That percentage has remained relatively steady for almost 20 years. Expansion and growth prospects for nuclear power are centred in Asia. Of the 31 units under construction worldwide, 18 are located in India, Japan, South Korea and China, including Taiwan. Twenty of the last 29 reactors to be connected to the grid are also in the Far East and South Asia. That is probably more active construction than most Europeans would guess, given how little recent growth has occurred in the West. For Western Europe and North America, nuclear construction has been a frozen playing field - the last plant to be completed being Civaux-2 in France in 1999. That should raise a question: with little to no new construction, how has nuclear power been able to keep up with other energy sources, to maintain its share of electricity generation? Interestingly enough, the answer is tied directly to efforts to improve safety performance. The accident at Chernobyl in 1986 prompted the creation of the World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO), and revolutionized the IAEA approach to nuclear power plant safety. Some analysts believe the case for new nuclear construction in Europe is gaining new ground, for a number of reasons: efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the risk of climate change; security of energy supply; Comparative Public Health Risk; different set of variables when choosing Each country's and region energy strategy. Looking to the future, certain key challenges are, of direct

  12. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  13. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  14. Simulations of KSTAR high performance steady state operation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Na, Yong-Su; Kessel, C.E.; Park, J.M.; Yi, Sumin; Kim, J.Y.; Becoulet, A.; Sips, A.C.C.

    2009-01-01

    We report the results of predictive modelling of high performance steady state operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the capabilities of steady state operation are investigated with time-dependent simulations using a free-boundary plasma equilibrium evolution code coupled with transport calculations. Secondly, the reproducibility of high performance steady state operation scenarios developed in the DIII-D tokamak, of similar size to that of KSTAR, is investigated using the experimental data taken from DIII-D. Finally, the capability of ITER-relevant steady state operation is investigated in KSTAR. It is found that KSTAR is able to establish high performance steady state operation scenarios; β N above 3, H 98 (y, 2) up to 2.0, f BS up to 0.76 and f NI equals 1.0. In this work, a realistic density profile is newly introduced for predictive simulations by employing the scaling law of a density peaking factor. The influence of the current ramp-up scenario and the transport model is discussed with respect to the fusion performance and non-inductive current drive fraction in the transport simulations. As observed in the experiments, both the heating and the plasma current waveforms in the current ramp-up phase produce a strong effect on the q-profile, the fusion performance and also on the non-inductive current drive fraction in the current flattop phase. A criterion in terms of q min is found to establish ITER-relevant steady state operation scenarios. This will provide a guideline for designing the current ramp-up phase in KSTAR. It is observed that the transport model also affects the predictive values of fusion performance as well as the non-inductive current drive fraction. The Weiland transport model predicts the highest fusion performance as well as non-inductive current drive fraction in KSTAR. In contrast, the GLF23 model exhibits the lowest ones. ITER-relevant advanced scenarios cannot be obtained with the GLF23 model in the conditions given in this work

  15. Innovative Educational Scenarios in Game Based Teaching and Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Smeureanu

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The didactical game can be considered part of an educational scenario in teaching and learning. This article aims to show how fundamental concepts from the economicmathematical modeling area can be visualized, how to organize knowledge in coherent scenarios, presented in an educational game manner, to gain the attention and influence students' spirit of competition. At the same time, benefitting from the 3D visualizations, the graphical interfaces for navigating in multidimensional spaces or projections are defined and thus imagination used for mental models construction is stimulated and human intuition is capitalized in the process of knowledge discovery, assisted by computer with analytic algorithms type. Exploration becomes a game feature and can be pursued both numerically and visually. 3D environments give realism to visualizations that are found in games, facilitating realimaginary relationship throughout the game and enhancing learning motivation. The innovative character of teaching is given by the method in which the teacher creates his own educational scenario by considering specific learning objectives, age particularities of students, time and space-related resources, the technical requirements of the game and the evaluation method. The paper makes several references to such projects, developed by the authors and implemented in working with students. Game based on demonstration (using simulation, modelling or visualization coordinates users to obtain relevant information; the multiple representations of knowledge are so used and compared through a multitude of examples.

  16. Biosphere modelling for a HLW repository - scenario and parameter variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.

    1985-03-01

    In Switzerland high-level radioactive wastes have been considered for disposal in deep-lying crystalline formations. The individual doses to man resulting from radionuclides entering the biosphere via groundwater transport are calculated. The main recipient area modelled, which constitutes the base case, is a broad gravel terrace sited along the south bank of the river Rhine. An alternative recipient region, a small valley with a well, is also modelled. A number of parameter variations are performed in order to ascertain their impact on the doses. Finally two scenario changes are modelled somewhat simplistically, these consider different prevailing climates, namely tundra and a warmer climate than present. In the base case negligibly low doses to man in the long term, resulting from the existence of a HLW repository have been calculated. Cs-135 results in the largest dose (8.4E-7 mrem/y at 6.1E+6 y) while Np-237 gives the largest dose from the actinides (3.6E-8 mrem/y). The response of the model to parameter variations cannot be easily predicted due to non-linear coupling of many of the parameters. However, the calculated doses were negligibly low in all cases as were those resulting from the two scenario variations. (author)

  17. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

  18. Marketing Reference Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, O. Gene

    1995-01-01

    Relates the marketing concept to library reference services. Highlights include a review of the literature and an overview of marketing, including research, the marketing mix, strategic plan, marketing plan, and marketing audit. Marketing principles are applied to reference services through the marketing mix elements of product, price, place, and…

  19. Reference class forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent

    optimisme og misinformation. RCF bygger på teorier, som vandt Daniel Kahneman Nobelprisen i økonomi i 2002. RCF estimerer budgettet for et givet projekt på grundlag af de faktiske udfald for budgetterne i en reference-klasse af projekter. RCF udføres i tre trin: 1. Identifikation af en relevant reference...

  20. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles N.; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  1. Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

    2012-01-01

    Low carbon energy technologies are of increasing importance to India for reducing emissions and diversifying its energy supply mix. Using GCAM, an integrated assessment model, this paper analyzes a targets approach for pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies in the Indian electricity generation sector from 2005 to 2095. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements, and expert opinions. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario, wind and nuclear technologies exceed respective targets in the long run without any subsidy push, while solar energy requires subsidy push throughout the century in order to meet its high targets. In the short run, nuclear energy also requires significant subsidy, including a much higher initial subsidy relative to solar power, which is a result of its higher targets. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies. Still, subsidy is required — especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. We also found that pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies leads to a decrease in share of CCS under the carbon price scenario and biomass under both the reference and carbon price scenarios. This is because low carbon technologies compete among themselves and substitute each other, thereby enhancing the need for subsidy or carbon price, highlighting that proposed targets are not set at efficient levels. In light of contemporary debate on external costs of nuclear energy, we also assess the sensitivity of the results to nuclear technology cost. We find that higher cost significantly decreases the share of nuclear power under both the reference and carbon price scenarios.

  2. Economic and financial viability of small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico: economic scenario 2010-2018.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posadas-Domínguez, R R; Callejas-Juárez, N; Arriaga-Jordán, C M; Martínez-Castañeda, F E

    2016-12-01

    A simulation Monte Carlo model was used to assess the economic and financial viability of 130 small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico, through a Representative Small-Scale Dairy Farm. Net yields were calculated for a 9-year planning horizon by means of simulated values for the distribution of input and product prices taking 2010 as base year and considering four scenarios which were compared against the scenario of actual production. The other scenarios were (1) total hiring in of needed labour; (2) external purchase of 100 % of inputs and (3) withdrawal of subsidies to production. A stochastic modelling approach was followed to determine the scenario with the highest economic and financial viability. Results show a viable economic and financial situation for the real production scenario, as well as the scenarios for total hiring of labour and of withdrawal of subsidies, but the scenario when 100 % of feed inputs for the herd are bought-in was not viable.

  3. An overview of REARA reference design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menezes, A.

    1996-01-01

    In an effort to keep fast reactors as an option for an eventual future utilization in Brazil, the Advanced Studies Institute (IEAv) is coordinating a research project (called REARA, from the Portuguese REAtores RApidos (Fast Reactors)) which aims to establish a basic know-how in important aspects of fast reactor technology. A reference design for the primary circuit of a 60 MWt experimental fast reactor has been completed. Fuel pin dimensions and other data were taken mostly from PRISM and EBR-II and were used for calculations which lead to a general core configuration. The reference design is presently being used for testing our calculational tools, for checking different methodologies for core calculations, etc. The REARA reference design is presented, with emphasis in the main results and also in the contribution given by the project team in areas such as neutronics, thermohydraulics, etc. (author). 6 refs, 1 fig., 7 tabs

  4. Reference change values and power functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iglesias Canadell, Natàlia; Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Jensen, Esther

    2004-01-01

    Repeated samplings and measurements in the monitoring of patients to look for changes are common clinical problems. The "reference change value", calculated as zp x [2 x (CVI2 + CVA2)](1/2), where zp is the z-statistic and CVI and CVA are within-subject and analytical coefficients of variation......, respectively, has been used to detect whether a measured difference between measurements is statistically significant. However, a reference change value only detects the probability of false-positives (type I error), and for this reason, a model to calculate the risk of missing significant changes in serial...... difference is the same as the calculated reference change value, then it will be detected in only 50% of situations....

  5. A Scenario to Provide Atomic Data for Fusion Research in the Stage of Precision Physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiaming; Gao Xiang; Cheng Cheng; Zhang Xiaole; Qing Bo

    2010-01-01

    In order to provide abundant atomic data for fusion research in the stage of precision physics, a scenario, being a combination of indispensable theoretical calculations and bench-mark experimental measurements, is proposed. Such abundant atomic data are compiled mainly by theoretical calculations. Accuracies of such abundant data (i.e., atomic energy levels and corresponding cross sections) are ascertained only by a finite number of bench-mark experimental measurements based on analytical calculation of scattering matrices.

  6. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

  7. Stakeholders´ Requirements and Reference Scenarios. Deliverable D2.1

    OpenAIRE

    Diamantopoulou, Vasiliki; Mouratidis, Haralambos; Pavlidis, Michalis; Rekleitis, Evangelos

    2016-01-01

    The present document covers important elements on the development of WP2, including: a literature review of the state of the art relevant to security requirements engineering, risk management and supply chain security management standards. Following, the elicitation, analysis and documentation of requirements associated risk management and cyber-security management in ports and their supply chain sectors is presented. Emphasis is given in capturing the perspectives of all stakeholders; includ...

  8. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs....

  9. AN ENVIRON-ECONOMICAL MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF WATER POLLUTION IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN REFERENCE TO INDIAN SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hemant PATHAK

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the application of the mathematical modeling to such a specific area as environ-economical interaction in prospect of big countries like India. A model of mutual interaction of dirty drinking water resulting water borne diseases, badly affected economy is proposed. For the description of some of these models illustrates drinking water resources, incapable municipal water treatment consequently expansion of diseases, World Bank loan, affected biggest labour forces (mankind and ultimate results in the form of decrease in GDP. These mathematical models may be used in the solving of similar type problems exist in south and eastern Asian economies.

  10. 2009 reference case scenario : Canadian energy demand and supply to 2020 : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The National Energy Board regulates the construction and operation of interprovincial and international oil and gas pipelines and power lines as well as the tolls and tariffs for the pipelines under its jurisdictions. The import and export of natural gas is also regulated by the NEB. The NEB examined the possible energy futures that might unfold for Canadians up to the year 2020. The factors that affect the supply of crude oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, electricity and coal in the short term were examined to determine the outlook for deliverability through 2020. The growing demand for energy was reviewed along with the adequacy of future energy supplies, and related issues of emerging technologies, energy infrastructure and energy exports. This assessment provided separate production outlooks for hydrocarbons, electricity and coal and outlined the key uncertainties to the supply outlook. The likely impact of recent economic, energy and policy trends on energy demand and supply were considered. It was concluded that energy markets in Canada will continue to function well. Energy prices will provide appropriate market signals for the development of energy resources to meet Canadian and export demand. A significant portion of Canadian demand for energy will be met by fossil fuels. However, the demand to move towards greener energy fuels should result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions. 1 tab., 27 figs.

  11. Research on decommissioning of nuclear facilities 2. Study on optimum scenario using the AHP (Joint research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shibahara, Yuji; Morishita, Yoshitsugu; Ishigami, Tsutomu; Yanagihara, Satoshi; Arita, Yuji

    2013-01-01

    To implement a decommissioning project reasonably, it is necessary and important to calculate project management data beforehand as well as to select an optimum dismantling scenario among various scenarios postulated. Little study on the subject of selecting an optimum scenario has been carried out, and it is one of the most important issues in terms of decision making. In FY 2009, Japan Atomic Energy Agency and University of Fukui launched the joint research of a decision making method which is important to determine a decommissioning plan. The purpose of this research is to formulate a methodology for selecting an optimum dismantling scenario among various scenarios postulated based on calculated results of project management data for FUGEN. Project management data for several dismantling scenarios postulated at FUGEN were evaluated based on actual dismantling work for feedwater heater at FUGEN, and an optimum scenario was discussed using the AHP, one of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Methods. This report describes the results of the joint research in FY 2010. (author)

  12. A synthesis on the HTR scenario studies at CEA - HTR2008-58059

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, L.; Greneche, D.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of the studies is to assess the impact of the deployment of an HTR park replacing one part of the current PWR reactors. The other part of the current park is replaced by EPRs. In these scenarios, the annual electricity production is constant at 400 TWhe. This value corresponds roughly to the present nuclear electricity production in France. From 2002 to 2007, an important program study on HTR has been carried out by CEA and AREVA NC under the joint CEA - AREVA NC project 'prospective studies on the management of Plutonium and the back end of the cycle'. This program addresses core physic and scenario studies, and also the back end of the fuel cycle : reprocessing of spent fuel and HTR waste management. Some core physic studies have already been presented in the reference [1]. This paper presents the results of the scenario studies using two concepts: either the standard core of the Gas Turbine Modular Helium Reactor concept (GTMHR) with Uranium or Plutonium fuel, or the Multiple Fuel Rows Core (MFRC) dedicated to the actinide burning. The insertion of a new concept (fuel, reactor, process) must be evaluated in the global electronuclear system with an analysis of the impact on the fuel cycle (Enrichment, Fuel Fabrication, Reactor, Processing, Interim Storage, Waste storage). The scenario studies are used to evaluate different solutions to manage nuclear materials (uranium, plutonium) and wastes (minor actinides and fission products), from the present situation in France (closed cycle with storage of used MOX fuels) until the final equilibrium: mixed nuclear park with EPR and HTR. These studies allow to calculate material flows and inventories of these elements in each step of the fuel cycle. The simulation of transient scenarios from the present situation to the future situation is performed with the COSI code. HTR reactors feature a high flexibility with regard to fuel cycle options. Several versions of core have been investigated, with different type of

  13. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2017-08-01

    Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  14. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Carlson

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG scenario and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  15. Decarbonization scenarios in the electricity sector in Vietnam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dang, Van Thanh

    2016-01-01

    shift in policy choices to face the needs of an accelerated but sustainable economic development. Six scenarios were constructed on the basis of a reference scenario, focusing successively on energy efficiency, nuclear, CCS, renewables and a more balanced electricity mix. Environmental constraints (CO_2 emissions reduction) have priority in the scenario building process. This multi-criteria approach is very new in Vietnam, a country more familiar with supply cost-based approach. Scenarios analyzed here take into account the carbon intensity reduction of Vietnam's power sector. It is proposed as the benchmark threshold, the emission level of 50-80 g/kWh (similar to reference level studied in two of Vietnam's neighboring Asian economies such as Indonesia and India). In our research, the different mix of electricity generation offer relevant solutions. They allow meeting the economic and environmental challenges related to the expansion of the Vietnam's electricity sector. The analysis takes into account several dimensions such as the increasing demand pressure, fuels supply security with alternative choices, reduced high electrical production total costs, control of external bill, considered social impact (especially on health of citizens) and land use and, finally, compliance with standards related to the regional, national and global environment/climate protection. (author) [fr

  16. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Multimedia

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  17. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  18. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  19. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  20. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants......Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  1. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  2. Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

    2008-01-01

    As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the

  3. Online scenario labeling using a hidden Markov model for assessment of nuclear plant state

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamalieva, Daniya; Yilmaz, Alper; Aldemir, Tunc

    2013-01-01

    By taking into account both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties within the same probabilistic framework, dynamic event trees (DETs) provide more comprehensive and systematic coverage of possible scenarios following an initiating event compared to conventional event trees. When DET generation algorithms are applied to complex realistic systems, extremely large amounts of data can be produced due to both the large number of scenarios generated following a single initiating event and the large number of data channels that represent these scenarios. In addition, the computational time required for the simulation of each scenario can be very large (e.g. about 24 h of serial run simulation time for a 4 h station blackout scenario). Since scenarios leading to system failure are more of interest, a method is proposed for online labeling of scenarios as failure or non-failure. The algorithm first trains a Hidden Markov Model, which represents the behavior of non-failure scenarios, using a training set from previous simulations. Then, the maximum likelihoods of sample failure and non-failure scenarios fitting this model are computed. These values are used to determine the timestamp at which the labeling of a certain scenario should be performed. Finally, during the succeeding timestamps, the likelihood of each scenario fitting the learned model is computed, and a dynamic thresholding based on the previously calculated likelihood values is applied. The scenarios whose likelihood is higher than the threshold are labeled as non-failure. The proposed algorithm can further delay the non-failure scenarios or discontinue them in order to redirect the computational resources toward the failure scenarios, and reduce computational time and complexity. Experiments using RELAP5/3D model of a fast reactor utilizing an Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS) passive decay heat removal system and dynamic analysis of a station blackout (SBO) event show that the proposed method is

  4. Trends and reduction scenarios for Rn 222 concentrations in dwellings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blaauboer, R.O.; Heling, R.

    1993-07-01

    In the title study the effects of possible measures on the average radon concentration in Dutch dwellings is evaluated. Attention is paid to the trends in building methods, the use of building materials and using the trends as a reference development (scenario 0). A total of seven scenarios has been evaluated. The model that was used was kept rather simple, because most of the parameter values are average values. The measures studied were selected on the basis of cost-effectiveness. All measures are based on reducing the infiltration of radon from the crawl space under the house to the living quarters and reducing the exhalation rates of building materials. The evaluation shows a rather good match with earlier measurements and projections as far as the average radon concentration is concerned. The trend, i.e. the development without taking measures directed at reducing the radon concentration, predicts a slow increase of about 15% until approximately the year 2025. The scenario that is directed at using concrete with low Ra-226 concentrations in new houses projects an end to this trend. Other scenarios reveal that taking measures solely in the existing housing stock would give a substantial decrease in radon concentrations in the near future. The spread sheet model that was developed to evaluate the consequences of the different scenarios projects a possible reduction of the average radon concentration in dwellings with 25% by the year 2025, compared to 1991, if measures, directed at Rn-reduction are applied. If in addition to that concrete with low Ra-226 concentrations is used in new buildings, a reduction of the average radon concentration is projected of about 30%. This would result in an average radon concentration in dwellings of about 23 Bq.m -3 in the future. These reduction percentages have to be handled with some care however, because the effect of the obviously occurring uncertainties in several parameters used, are not yet quite clear. Trends in and the

  5. Scenarios for wind power in Brazil, Argentina and Chile; Cenarios para a energia eolio eletrica no Brasil, Argentina e Chile

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dedecca, Joao Gorestein; Nogueira, Larissa Goncalves; Jannuzzi, Gilberto de Martino [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Fac. de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Energia], emails: jdedecca@fem.unicamp.br, larissa@fem.unicamp.br, januzzi@fem.unicamp.br; Gomes, Rodolfo Dourado [International Energy Initiative-Latin America (IEI-LA), Campinas, SP (Brazil)], email: rodolfo@iei-la.org

    2010-07-01

    The Chilean, Argentinean and Brazilian power matrixes presented in the last two decades a growth of the non-renewable energy sources share, especially fossil sources, mainly in installed capacity and in a lesser degree in energy production. Greenpeace and the European Renewable Energy Council have elaborated a reference energy scenario together with a scenario analyzing the institution of ample measures for the promotion of renewable energy sources. Feed-in tariffs and auction or bidding mechanisms implemented in Brazil and Argentina and the renewable portfolio standard implemented in Chile allied with the wind industry state in these countries indicate that Chile and Argentina will fulfill the 2020 wind power installed capacity predicted in the reference scenarios, while Brazil will reach the energy revolution scenario prediction. Important energy policy changes are required if the Chile and Argentina energy revolution scenarios wind power installed capacity are to become a reality in 2020. (author)

  6. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    OpenAIRE

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to ide...

  7. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zucchetti, M.; Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P.

    1998-01-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  8. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zucchetti, M. [European Commission, JRC, Institute for Advanced Material, Ispra, Vatican City State, Holy See (Italy); Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P. [Energetics Dept., Polytechnic of Turin (Italy)

    1998-07-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  9. Quantifying scenarios to check statistical procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beetle, T.M.

    1976-01-01

    Ways of diverting nuclear material are presented in a form that reflects the effects of the diversions on a select set of statistical accounting procedures. Twelve statistics are examined for changes in mean values under sixty diversion scenarios. Several questions about the statistics are answered using a table of quantification results. Findings include a smallest, proper subset of the set of statistics which has one or more changed mean values under each of the diversion scenarios

  10. Uranium reference materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donivan, S.; Chessmore, R.

    1987-07-01

    The Technical Measurements Center has prepared uranium mill tailings reference materials for use by remedial action contractors and cognizant federal and state agencies. Four materials were prepared with varying concentrations of radionuclides, using three tailings materials and a river-bottom soil diluent. All materials were ground, dried, and blended thoroughly to ensure homogeneity. The analyses on which the recommended values for nuclides in the reference materials are based were performed, using independent methods, by the UNC Geotech (UNC) Chemistry Laboratory, Grand Junction, Colorado, and by C.W. Sill (Sill), Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho Falls, Idaho. Several statistical tests were performed on the analytical data to characterize the reference materials. Results of these tests reveal that the four reference materials are homogeneous and that no large systematic bias exists between the analytical methods used by Sill and those used by TMC. The average values for radionuclides of the two data sets, representing an unbiased estimate, were used as the recommended values for concentrations of nuclides in the reference materials. The recommended concentrations of radionuclides in the four reference materials are provided. Use of these reference materials will aid in providing uniform standardization among measurements made by remedial action contractors. 11 refs., 9 tabs

  11. Development and application of a methodology for identifying and characterising scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billington, D.; Bailey, L.

    1998-01-01

    interval along each timeline. This report presents illustrative examples of the application of the above methodology to achieve this aim. The results of risk calculations and assigned weights are plotted on a 'weight-risk diagram', which is used to judge the relative significance of the different variant scenarios in relation to the base scenario and the regulatory risk target. The application of this methodology is consistent with a staged approach to performance assessment, in which effort is focused initially on scoping calculations of conditional risk. Only those variant scenarios giving a higher conditional risk than the base scenario are subject to more detailed evaluation, including the assignment of an appropriate weight. From the limited trialling that has been undertaken, the indications are that a tractable approach, consistent with the objectives of comprehensiveness, traceability and clarity, has been achieved. (author)

  12. The negaWatt 2011 scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-03-01

    This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

  13. Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

    2010-01-01

    Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

  14. STL pocket reference

    CERN Document Server

    Lischner, Ray

    2003-01-01

    The STL Pocket Reference describes the functions, classes, and templates in that part of the C++ standard library often referred to as the Standard Template Library (STL). The STL encompasses containers, iterators, algorithms, and function objects, which collectively represent one of the most important and widely used subsets of standard library functionality. The C++ standard library, even the subset known as the STL, is vast. It's next to impossible to work with the STL without some sort of reference at your side to remind you of template parameters, function invocations, return types--ind

  15. Handbook of reference electrodes

    CERN Document Server

    Inzelt, György; Scholz, Fritz

    2013-01-01

    Reference Electrodes are a crucial part of any electrochemical system, yet an up-to-date and comprehensive handbook is long overdue. Here, an experienced team of electrochemists provides an in-depth source of information and data for the proper choice and construction of reference electrodes. This includes all kinds of applications such as aqueous and non-aqueous solutions, ionic liquids, glass melts, solid electrolyte systems, and membrane electrodes. Advanced technologies such as miniaturized, conducting-polymer-based, screen-printed or disposable reference electrodes are also covered. Essen

  16. Regular Expression Pocket Reference

    CERN Document Server

    Stubblebine, Tony

    2007-01-01

    This handy little book offers programmers a complete overview of the syntax and semantics of regular expressions that are at the heart of every text-processing application. Ideal as a quick reference, Regular Expression Pocket Reference covers the regular expression APIs for Perl 5.8, Ruby (including some upcoming 1.9 features), Java, PHP, .NET and C#, Python, vi, JavaScript, and the PCRE regular expression libraries. This concise and easy-to-use reference puts a very powerful tool for manipulating text and data right at your fingertips. Composed of a mixture of symbols and text, regular exp

  17. Neptunium: a bibliographic reference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosley, R.E.

    1979-06-01

    A comprehensive bibliograhy of the literature on the element neptunium published prior to January 1976 is presented. A short abstract is given for each listed reference, with a few exceptions. The references are divided into sections categorized as General, Man-Made Sources (Reactors), Man-Made Sources (Fuel Reprocessing), Chemistry (Solubility), Chemistry (Compounds), Chemistry (Isotopes), Analyses (Instrumental), Analyses (Chemical), Chemical (Animal), Biological (Effects), Biological (Animal-Metabolism-Retention), Biological (Air Movement), Biological (Human Inhalation), Measurement, and Dosimetry. The bibliography contains author and keyword indexes and was compiled to serve as a quick reference source for neptunium-related work. 184 citations

  18. CSS Pocket Reference

    CERN Document Server

    Meyer, Eric

    2011-01-01

    When you're working with CSS and need a quick answer, CSS Pocket Reference delivers. This handy, concise book provides all of the essential information you need to implement CSS on the fly. Ideal for intermediate to advanced web designers and developers, the 4th edition is revised and updated for CSS3, the latest version of the Cascading Style Sheet specification. Along with a complete alphabetical reference to CSS3 selectors and properties, you'll also find a short introduction to the key concepts of CSS. Based on Cascading Style Sheets: The Definitive Guide, this reference is an easy-to-us

  19. Biomedical Engineering Desk Reference

    CERN Document Server

    Ratner, Buddy D; Schoen, Frederick J; Lemons, Jack E; Dyro, Joseph; Martinsen, Orjan G; Kyle, Richard; Preim, Bernhard; Bartz, Dirk; Grimnes, Sverre; Vallero, Daniel; Semmlow, John; Murray, W Bosseau; Perez, Reinaldo; Bankman, Isaac; Dunn, Stanley; Ikada, Yoshito; Moghe, Prabhas V; Constantinides, Alkis

    2009-01-01

    A one-stop Desk Reference, for Biomedical Engineers involved in the ever expanding and very fast moving area; this is a book that will not gather dust on the shelf. It brings together the essential professional reference content from leading international contributors in the biomedical engineering field. Material covers a broad range of topics including: Biomechanics and Biomaterials; Tissue Engineering; and Biosignal Processing* A hard-working desk reference providing all the essential material needed by biomedical and clinical engineers on a day-to-day basis * Fundamentals, key techniques,

  20. LINQ Pocket Reference

    CERN Document Server

    Albahari, Joseph

    2008-01-01

    Ready to take advantage of LINQ with C# 3.0? This guide has the detail you need to grasp Microsoft's new querying technology, and concise explanations to help you learn it quickly. And once you begin to apply LINQ, the book serves as an on-the-job reference when you need immediate reminders. All the examples in the LINQ Pocket Reference are preloaded into LINQPad, the highly praised utility that lets you work with LINQ interactively. Created by the authors and free to download, LINQPad will not only help you learn LINQ, it will have you thinking in LINQ. This reference explains: LINQ's ke