WorldWideScience

Sample records for reed-frost stochastic model

  1. Simulating transmission and control of Taenia solium infections using a reed-frost stochastic model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyvsgaard, Niels Chr.; Johansen, Maria Vang; Carabin, Hélène

    2007-01-01

    occur between hosts and that hosts can be either susceptible, infected or ‘recovered and presumed immune'. Transmission between humans and pigs is modelled as susceptible roaming pigs scavenging on human faeces infected with T. solium eggs. Transmission from pigs to humans is modelled as susceptible...... humans eating under-cooked pork meat harbouring T. solium metacestodes. Deterministic models of each scenario were first run, followed by stochastic versions of the models to assess the likelihood of infection elimination in the small population modelled. The effects of three groups of interventions were...... investigated using the model: (i) interventions affecting the transmission parameters such as use of latrines, meat inspection, and cooking habits; (ii) routine interventions including rapid detection and treatment of human carriers or pig vaccination; and (iii) treatment interventions of either humans or pigs...

  2. Forecast of Frost Days Based on Monthly Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, M. T.; Tarquis, A. M.; Morató, M. C.; Saa-Requejo, A.

    2009-04-01

    Although frost can cause considerable crop damage and mitigation practices against forecasted frost exist, frost forecasting technologies have not changed for many years. The paper reports a new method to forecast the monthly number of frost days (FD) for several meteorological stations at Community of Madrid (Spain) based on successive application of two models. The first one is a stochastic model, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), that forecasts monthly minimum absolute temperature (tmin) and monthly average of minimum temperature (tminav) following Box-Jenkins methodology. The second model relates these monthly temperatures to minimum daily temperature distribution during one month. Three ARIMA models were identified for the time series analyzed with a stational period correspondent to one year. They present the same stational behavior (moving average differenced model) and different non-stational part: autoregressive model (Model 1), moving average differenced model (Model 2) and autoregressive and moving average model (Model 3). At the same time, the results point out that minimum daily temperature (tdmin), for the meteorological stations studied, followed a normal distribution each month with a very similar standard deviation through years. This standard deviation obtained for each station and each month could be used as a risk index for cold months. The application of Model 1 to predict minimum monthly temperatures showed the best FD forecast. This procedure provides a tool for crop managers and crop insurance companies to asses the risk of frost frequency and intensity, so that they can take steps to mitigate against frost damage and estimated the damage that frost would cost. This research was supported by Comunidad de Madrid Research Project 076/92. The cooperation of the Spanish National Meteorological Institute and the Spanish Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentation (MAPA) is gratefully acknowledged.

  3. Assessing frost damages using dynamic models in walnut trees: exposure rather than vulnerability controls frost risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaume, Charrier; Isabelle, Chuine; Marc, Bonhomme; Thierry, Améglio

    2018-05-01

    Frost damages develop when exposure overtakes frost vulnerability. Frost risk assessment therefore needs dynamic simulation of frost hardiness using temperature and photoperiod in interaction with developmental stage. Two models, including or not the effect of photoperiod, were calibrated using five years of frost hardiness monitoring (2007-2012), in two locations (low and high elevation) for three walnut genotypes with contrasted phenology and maximum hardiness (Juglans regia cv Franquette, J. regia × nigra 'Early' and 'Late'). The photothermal model predicted more accurate values for all genotypes (efficiency = 0.879; Root Mean Standard Error Predicted (RMSEP) = 2.55 °C) than the thermal model (efficiency = 0.801; RMSEP = 3.24 °C). Predicted frost damages were strongly correlated to minimum temperature of the freezing events (ρ = -0.983) rather than actual frost hardiness (ρ = -0.515), or ratio of phenological stage completion (ρ = 0.336). Higher frost risks are consequently predicted during winter, at high elevation, whereas spring is only risky at low elevation in early genotypes exhibiting faster dehardening rate. However, early frost damages, although of lower value, may negatively affect fruit production the subsequent year (R 2  = 0.381, P = 0.057). These results highlight the interacting pattern between frost exposure and vulnerability at different scales and the necessity of intra-organ studies to understand the time course of frost vulnerability in flower buds along the winter. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Molecular polarizabilities and susceptibilities from Frost-model wavefunctions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amos, A.T.; Yoffe, J.A.

    1975-01-01

    Average polarizabilities and susceptibilities of a number of molecules are computed from Frost-model wavefunctions using a form of symmetry-adapted double perturbation theory. The anisotropy of α and chi is found for a few molecules using the elliptical Gaussian form of the Frost model. The results obtained are in reasonable agreement with experiment and other calculated values

  5. Modeling the airside dynamic behavior of a heat exchanger under frosting conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Tieyu; Gong, Jianying

    2011-01-01

    A general distributed model with a non-steady-state heat exchanger model coupled with a frost model was developed to study the dynamic behavior of an airside heat exchanger in an air-to-water heat pump heater/chiller unit. The effects of water vapor diffusion and uneven fin temperature distribution were considered. The model was found to agree well with reported experimental results. Compared with the routine model, the present model has higher precision of frost layer thickness especially on the fin surface. Results include the propagation of frost formation along the tube and its effect on the dynamic characteristics of refrigerant, air, and tube sides. According to the results, the temperature difference between air and tube surface temperature was proposed to be the main driving force of frosting. Tube surface temperature is the most important factor affecting frosting when there is little variation in air humidity. Frost at the fin base was found to be thicker than that at the fin tip due to the fact that the frost layer grows faster with lower tube surface temperature

  6. Nitrogen frost migration on Triton: A historical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spencer, J.R.

    1990-01-01

    The author presents the results of numerical simulations of the seasonal migration of nitrogen frost on Triton, constrained by Voyager observations of atmospheric pressure, temperature, and albedo distribution. Most of the exposed nitrogen is probably seasonal frost, whose migration can produce major variations in atmospheric pressure. For instance, models explored here predict a tenfold pressure drop in the coming decade. The observed albedo patterns can be understood if fresh nitrogen frost is relatively dark butt brightens with increasing insolation in a manner analogous to the Martian southern CO 2 cap

  7. The vibrating reed frequency meter : digital investigation of an early cochlear model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bell, Andrew; Wit, Hero P.

    2015-01-01

    The vibrating reed frequency meter, originally employed by Bekesy and later by Wilson as a cochlear model, uses a set of tuned reeds to represent the cochlea's graded bank of resonant elements and an elastic band threaded between them to provide nearest-neighbour coupling. Here the system,

  8. Aerodynamic excitation and sound production of blown-closed free reeds without acoustic coupling: The example of the accordion reed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricot, Denis; Caussé, René; Misdariis, Nicolas

    2005-04-01

    The accordion reed is an example of a blown-closed free reed. Unlike most oscillating valves in wind musical instruments, self-sustained oscillations occur without acoustic coupling. Flow visualizations and measurements in water show that the flow can be supposed incompressible and potential. A model is developed and the solution is calculated in the time domain. The excitation force is found to be associated with the inertial load of the unsteady flow through the reed gaps. Inertial effect leads to velocity fluctuations in the reed opening and then to an unsteady Bernoulli force. A pressure component generated by the local reciprocal air movement around the reed is added to the modeled aerodynamic excitation pressure. Since the model is two-dimensional, only qualitative comparisons with air flow measurements are possible. The agreement between the simulated pressure waveforms and measured pressure in the very near-field of the reed is reasonable. In addition, an aeroacoustic model using the permeable Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings integral method is presented. The integral expressions of the far-field acoustic pressure are also computed in the time domain. In agreement with experimental data, the sound is found to be dominated by the dipolar source associated by the strong momentum fluctuations of the flow through the reed gaps. .

  9. Managing potato biodiversity to cope with frost risk in the high Andes: a modeling perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condori, Bruno; Hijmans, Robert J; Ledent, Jean Francois; Quiroz, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Austral summer frosts in the Andean highlands are ubiquitous throughout the crop cycle, causing yield losses. In spite of the existing warming trend, climate change models forecast high variability, including freezing temperatures. As the potato center of origin, the region has a rich biodiversity which includes a set of frost resistant genotypes. Four contrasting potato genotypes--representing genetic variability--were considered in the present study: two species of frost resistant native potatoes (the bitter Solanum juzepczukii, var. Luki, and the non-bitter Solanum ajanhuiri, var. Ajanhuiri) and two commercial frost susceptible genotypes (Solanum tuberosum ssp. tuberosum var. Alpha and Solanum tuberosum ssp. andigenum var. Gendarme). The objective of the study was to conduct a comparative growth analysis of four genotypes and modeling their agronomic response under frost events. It included assessing their performance under Andean contrasting agroecological conditions. Independent subsets of data from four field experiments were used to parameterize, calibrate and validate a potato growth model. The validated model was used to ascertain the importance of biodiversity, represented by the four genotypes tested, as constituents of germplasm mixtures in single plots used by local farmers, a coping strategy in the face of climate variability. Also scenarios with a frost routine incorporated in the model were constructed. Luki and Ajanhuiri were the most frost resistant varieties whereas Alpha was the most susceptible. Luki and Ajanhuiri, as monoculture, outperformed the yield obtained with the mixtures under severe frosts. These results highlight the role played by local frost tolerant varieties, and featured the management importance--e.g. clean seed, strategic watering--to attain the yields reported in our experiments. The mixtures of local and introduced potatoes can thus not only provide the products demanded by the markets but also reduce the impact of frosts

  10. Managing potato biodiversity to cope with frost risk in the high Andes: a modeling perspective.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Condori

    Full Text Available Austral summer frosts in the Andean highlands are ubiquitous throughout the crop cycle, causing yield losses. In spite of the existing warming trend, climate change models forecast high variability, including freezing temperatures. As the potato center of origin, the region has a rich biodiversity which includes a set of frost resistant genotypes. Four contrasting potato genotypes--representing genetic variability--were considered in the present study: two species of frost resistant native potatoes (the bitter Solanum juzepczukii, var. Luki, and the non-bitter Solanum ajanhuiri, var. Ajanhuiri and two commercial frost susceptible genotypes (Solanum tuberosum ssp. tuberosum var. Alpha and Solanum tuberosum ssp. andigenum var. Gendarme. The objective of the study was to conduct a comparative growth analysis of four genotypes and modeling their agronomic response under frost events. It included assessing their performance under Andean contrasting agroecological conditions. Independent subsets of data from four field experiments were used to parameterize, calibrate and validate a potato growth model. The validated model was used to ascertain the importance of biodiversity, represented by the four genotypes tested, as constituents of germplasm mixtures in single plots used by local farmers, a coping strategy in the face of climate variability. Also scenarios with a frost routine incorporated in the model were constructed. Luki and Ajanhuiri were the most frost resistant varieties whereas Alpha was the most susceptible. Luki and Ajanhuiri, as monoculture, outperformed the yield obtained with the mixtures under severe frosts. These results highlight the role played by local frost tolerant varieties, and featured the management importance--e.g. clean seed, strategic watering--to attain the yields reported in our experiments. The mixtures of local and introduced potatoes can thus not only provide the products demanded by the markets but also reduce the

  11. Future bloom and blossom frost risk for Malus domestica considering climate model and impact model uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Holger; Rath, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K(-1), showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

  12. Integrated Canada-U.S. Power Sector Modeling with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez, A.; Eurek, K.; Mai, T.; Perry, A.

    2013-02-01

    The electric power system in North America is linked between the United States and Canada. Canada has historically been a net exporter of electricity to the United States. The extent to which this remains true will depend on the future evolution of power markets, technology deployment, and policies. To evaluate these and related questions, we modify the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to include an explicit representation of the grid-connected power system in Canada to the continental United States. ReEDS is unique among long-term capacity expansion models for its high spatial resolution and statistical treatment of the impact of variable renewable generation on capacity planning and dispatch. These unique traits are extended to new Canadian regions. We present example scenario results using the fully integrated Canada-U.S. version of ReEDS to demonstrate model capabilities. The newly developed, integrated Canada-U.S. ReEDS model can be used to analyze the dynamics of electricity transfers and other grid services between the two countries under different scenarios.

  13. Numerical Model on Frost Height of Round Plate Fin Used for Outdoor Heat Exchanger of Mobile Electric Heat Pumps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moo-Yeon Lee

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to provide the numerical model for prediction of the frost growth of the round plate fin for the purpose of using it as a round plate fin-tube heat exchanger (evaporator under frosting conditions. In this study, numerical model was considering the frost density change with time, and it showed better agreement with experimental data of Sahin (1994 than that of the Kim model (2004 and the Jonse and Parker model (1975. This is because the prediction on the frost height with time was improved by using the frost thermal conductivity reflecting the void fraction and density of ice crystal with frost growth. Therefore, the developed numerical model could be used for frosting performance prediction of the round plate fin-tube heat exchanger.

  14. Modeling monthly meteorological and agronomic frost days, based on minimum air temperature, in Center-Southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Sentelhas, Paulo César; Stape, José Luiz

    2017-09-01

    Although Brazil is predominantly a tropical country, frosts are observed with relative high frequency in the Center-Southern states of the country, affecting mainly agriculture, forestry, and human activities. Therefore, information about the frost climatology is of high importance for planning of these activities. Based on that, the aims of the present study were to develop monthly meteorological (F MET) and agronomic (F AGR) frost day models, based on minimum shelter air temperature (T MN), in order to characterize the temporal and spatial frost days variability in Center-Southern Brazil. Daily minimum air temperature data from 244 weather stations distributed across the study area were used, being 195 for developing the models and 49 for validating them. Multivariate regression models were obtained to estimate the monthly T MN, once the frost day models were based on this variable. All T MN regression models were statistically significant (p Brazilian region are the first zoning of these variables for the country.

  15. Saving reed lands by giving economic value to reed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F.W. Croon

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Discussions about the need for renewable energy, the need for nature conservation, the need to double the world’s food production to eliminate hunger, the need to reduce carbon dioxide emission, and the wish to reduce dependency on dwindling oil resources, show that these issues are intimately related and sometimes mutually exclusive. The use of food crops for the production of renewable fuels has resulted in the energy vs. food debate; the use of scarce land and fresh water for the dedicated production of biomass conflicts with food production and nature conservation; the collection of harvest residues and forest wastes as biomass to produce renewable fuels is complex and leaves a CO2 footprint. The several species of reed that grow naturally in deltas, river plains etc. can provide large amounts of biomass but are hardly mentioned in the debates. Harvesting reed does not threaten the nature and the natural functions of reed lands, which are carbon neutral or carbon dioxide sinks. Reed production does not need extensive infrastructure or complex cultivation and does not compete with food production for land and fresh water. Reed lands in many places are under threat of reclamation for economic activities and urbanisation. This trend can be countered if reed is seen to have a proven economic value. In this article I argue that giving a sustainable economic value to reed lands can only be realised if the exploitation is recognised as being environmentally acceptable, commercially feasible and a source of economic gains for all stakeholders. Commercial feasibility can be achieved under present economic conditions only if a reliable supply of considerable volumes of reed at a limited price can be guaranteed.

  16. A new model for predicting performance of fin-and-tube heat exchanger under frost condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui, J.; Li, W.Z.; Liu, Y.; Zhao, Y.S.

    2011-01-01

    Accurate prediction of frost characteristics has crucial influence on designing effective heat exchangers. In this paper, a new CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) model has been proposed to predict the frost behaviour. The initial period of frost formation can be predicted and the influence of surface structure can be considered. The numerical simulations have been carried out to investigate the performance of fin-and-tube heat exchanger under frost condition. The results have been validated by comparison of simulations with the data computed by empirical formulas. The transient local frost formation has been obtained. The average frost thickness, heat exchanger coefficient and pressure drop on air side has been analysed as well. In addition, the influence factors have also been discussed, such as fin pitch, relative humidity, air flow rate and evaporating temperature of refrigerant.

  17. Predicting forest dieback in Maine, USA: a simple model based on soil frost and drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan N.D. Auclair; Warren E. Heilman; Blondel. Brinkman

    2010-01-01

    Tree roots of northern hardwoods are shallow rooted, winter active, and minimally frost hardened; dieback is a winter freezing injury to roots incited by frost penetration in the absence of adequate snow cover and exacerbated by drought in summer. High soil water content greatly increases conductivity of frost. We develop a model based on the sum of z-scores of soil...

  18. The periglacial engine of mountain erosion – Part 1: Rates of frost cracking and frost creep

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, David Lundbek; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    2015-01-01

    present a new model that quantifies two key physical processes: frost cracking and frost creep, as a function of both temperature and sediment thickness. Our results yield new insights into how climate and sediment transport properties combine to scale the intensity of periglacial processes. The thickness...... of the soil mantle strongly modulates the relation between climate and the intensity of mechanical weathering and sediment flux. Our results also point to an offset between the conditions that promote frost cracking and those that promote frost creep, indicating that a stable climate can provide optimal...

  19. Development and Sensitivity Analysis of a Frost Risk model based primarily on freely distributed Earth Observation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louka, Panagiota; Petropoulos, George; Papanikolaou, Ioannis

    2015-04-01

    The ability to map the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme climatic conditions, such as frost, is a significant tool in successful agricultural management and decision making. Nowadays, with the development of Earth Observation (EO) technology, it is possible to obtain accurately, timely and in a cost-effective way information on the spatiotemporal distribution of frost conditions, particularly over large and otherwise inaccessible areas. The present study aimed at developing and evaluating a frost risk prediction model, exploiting primarily EO data from MODIS and ASTER sensors and ancillary ground observation data. For the evaluation of our model, a region in north-western Greece was selected as test site and a detailed sensitivity analysis was implemented. The agreement between the model predictions and the observed (remotely sensed) frost frequency obtained by MODIS sensor was evaluated thoroughly. Also, detailed comparisons of the model predictions were performed against reference frost ground observations acquired from the Greek Agricultural Insurance Organization (ELGA) over a period of 10-years (2000-2010). Overall, results evidenced the ability of the model to produce reasonably well the frost conditions, following largely explainable patterns in respect to the study site and local weather conditions characteristics. Implementation of our proposed frost risk model is based primarily on satellite imagery analysis provided nowadays globally at no cost. It is also straightforward and computationally inexpensive, requiring much less effort in comparison for example to field surveying. Finally, the method is adjustable to be potentially integrated with other high resolution data available from both commercial and non-commercial vendors. Keywords: Sensitivity analysis, frost risk mapping, GIS, remote sensing, MODIS, Greece

  20. Prediction of Frost Occurrences Using Statistical Modeling Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyojin Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We developed the frost prediction models in spring in Korea using logistic regression and decision tree techniques. Hit Rate (HR, Probability of Detection (POD, and False Alarm Rate (FAR from both models were calculated and compared. Threshold values for the logistic regression models were selected to maximize HR and POD and minimize FAR for each station, and the split for the decision tree models was stopped when change in entropy was relatively small. Average HR values were 0.92 and 0.91 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively, average POD values were 0.78 and 0.80 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively, and average FAR values were 0.22 and 0.28 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively. The average numbers of selected explanatory variables were 5.7 and 2.3 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively. Fewer explanatory variables can be more appropriate for operational activities to provide a timely warning for the prevention of the frost damages to agricultural crops. We concluded that the decision tree model can be more useful for the timely warning system. It is recommended that the models should be improved to reflect local topological features.

  1. The vibrating reed frequency meter: digital investigation of an early cochlear model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Bell

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The vibrating reed frequency meter, originally employed by Békésy and later by Wilson as a cochlear model, uses a set of tuned reeds to represent the cochlea’s graded bank of resonant elements and an elastic band threaded between them to provide nearest-neighbour coupling. Here the system, constructed of 21 reeds progressively tuned from 45 to 55 Hz, is simulated numerically as an elastically coupled bank of passive harmonic oscillators driven simultaneously by an external sinusoidal force. To uncover more detail, simulations were extended to 201 oscillators covering the range 1–2 kHz. Calculations mirror the results reported by Wilson and show expected characteristics such as traveling waves, phase plateaus, and a response with a broad peak at a forcing frequency just above the natural frequency. The system also displays additional fine-grain features that resemble those which have only recently been recognised in the cochlea. Thus, detailed analysis brings to light a secondary peak beyond the main peak, a set of closely spaced low-amplitude ripples, rapid rotation of phase as the driving frequency is swept, frequency plateaus, clustering, and waxing and waning of impulse responses. Further investigation shows that each reed’s vibrations are strongly localised, with small energy flow along the chain. The distinctive set of equally spaced ripples is an inherent feature which is found to be largely independent of boundary conditions. Although the vibrating reed model is functionally different to the standard transmission line, its cochlea-like properties make it an intriguing local oscillator model whose relevance to cochlear mechanics needs further investigation.

  2. Frost Growth and Densification in Laminar Flow Over Flat Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandula, Max

    2011-01-01

    One-dimensional frost growth and densification in laminar flow over flat surfaces has been theoretically investigated. Improved representations of frost density and effective thermal conductivity applicable to a wide range of frost circumstances have been incorporated. The validity of the proposed model considering heat and mass diffusion in the frost layer is tested by a comparison of the predictions with data from various investigators for frost parameters including frost thickness, frost surface temperature, frost density and heat flux. The test conditions cover a range of wall temperature, air humidity ratio, air velocity, and air temperature, and the effect of these variables on the frost parameters has been exemplified. Satisfactory agreement is achieved between the model predictions and the various test data considered. The prevailing uncertainties concerning the role air velocity and air temperature on frost development have been elucidated. It is concluded that that for flat surfaces increases in air velocity have no appreciable effect on frost thickness but contribute to significant frost densification, while increase in air temperatures results in a slight increase the frost thickness and appreciable frost densification.

  3. Developing a phenological model for grapevine to assess future frost risk in Luxembourg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caffarra, A.; Molitor, D.; Pertot, I.; Sinigoy, P.; Junk, J.

    2012-04-01

    Late frost damage represents a significant hazard to grape production in cool climate viticulture regions such as Luxembourg. The main aim of our study is to analyze the frequency of these events for the Luxembourg's winegrowing region in the future. Spring frost injuries on grape may occur when young green parts are exposed to air temperature below 0°C. The potential risk is determined by: (i) minimum air temperature conditions and the (ii) the timing of bud burst. Therefore, we developed and validated a model for budburst of the grapevine (*Vitis vinifera)* cultivar Rivaner, the most grown local variety, based on multi-annual data from 7 different sites across Europe and the US. An advantage of this approach is, that it could be applied to a wide range of climate conditions. Higher spring temperatures were projected for the future and could lead to earlier dates of budburst as well as earlier dates of last frost events in the season. However, so far it is unknown if this will increase or decrease the risk of severe late frost damages for Luxembourg's winegrowing region. To address this question results of 10 regional climate change projections from the FP6 ENSEMBLES project (spatial resolution = 25km; A1B emission scenario) were combined with the new bud burst model. The use of a multi model ensemble of climate change projections allows for a better quantification of the uncertainties. A bias corrections scheme, based on local observations, was applied to the model output. Projected daily minimum air temperatures, up to 2098, were compared to the projected date of bud burst in order to quantify the future frost risk for Luxembourg.

  4. Idealized digital models for conical reed instruments, with focus on the internal pressure waveform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kergomard, J; Guillemain, P; Silva, F; Karkar, S

    2016-02-01

    Two models for the generation of self-oscillations of reed conical woodwinds are presented. The models use the fewest parameters (of either the resonator or the exciter), whose influence can be quickly explored. The formulation extends iterated maps obtained for lossless cylindrical pipes without reed dynamics. It uses spherical wave variables in idealized resonators, with one parameter more than for cylinders: the missing length of the cone. The mouthpiece volume equals that of the missing part of the cone, and is implemented as either a cylindrical pipe (first model) or a lumped element (second model). Only the first model adds a length parameter for the mouthpiece and leads to the solving of an implicit equation. For the second model, any shape of nonlinear characteristic can be directly considered. The complex characteristic impedance for spherical waves requires sampling times smaller than a round trip in the resonator. The convergence of the two models is shown when the length of the cylindrical mouthpiece tends to zero. The waveform is in semi-quantitative agreement with experiment. It is concluded that the oscillations of the positive episode of the mouthpiece pressure are related to the length of the missing part, not to the reed dynamics.

  5. Measurements of seasonal frost depth by frost tube in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harada, K.; Yoshikawa, K.; Iwahana, G.; Stanilovskaya, J. V.; Sawada, Y.; Sone, T.

    2017-12-01

    Since 2011 winter season, frost depths have been measured as an outreach program in Hokkaido, northern part of Japan, where seasonal ground freezing occurs in winter. Frost depths were measured in elementary, junior high and high schools in order to emphasis their interest for earth sciences. At schools, using simple frost tube, measurements were conducted directly once a week by students or teacher during ground freezing under no snow-removal condition. A lecture was made in class and a frost tube was set at schoolyard, as the same tube and protocol as UAF's Permafrost Outreach Program, using clear tube with blue-colored water. In 2011 winter season, we started measurements at three schools, and the number of school extended to 32 in 2016 season, 26 elementary schools, 5 junior high schools and one high school. We visited schools in summer time or just before frost season to talk about the method of measurement, and measurements by students started just after ground freezing. After the end of frozen period, we visited schools again to explain results of each school or another schools in Japan, Alaska, Canada or Russia. The measured frost depths in Hokkaido ranged widely, from only a few centimeter to more than 50 cm. However, some schools had no frost depth due to heavy snow. We confirmed that the frost depth strongly depends on air temperature and snow depth. The lecture was made to student why the frost depth ranged widely, and the effect of snow was explained by using the example of igloo. In order to validate the effect of snow and to compare frost depths, we tried to measure frost depths under snow-removal and no snow-removal conditions at the same elementary school. At the end of December, depths had no significant difference between these conditions, and the difference went to 14 cm after one month, with about 30 cm of snow depth. After these measurements and lectures, students noticed snow has a role as insulator and affects the frost depth.

  6. Robert Frost on Writing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Elaine

    This book is a collection of Frost's letters, reviews, introductions, lectures, and interviews on writing dating back to 1913. It provides Frost's view of literature, and its relation to language and social order. Part one, "Frost as a Literary Critic," discusses the scope of Frost's criticism and Frost as both critical theorist and…

  7. Exploring new alleles for frost tolerance in winter rye.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erath, Wiltrud; Bauer, Eva; Fowler, D Brian; Gordillo, Andres; Korzun, Viktor; Ponomareva, Mira; Schmidt, Malthe; Schmiedchen, Brigitta; Wilde, Peer; Schön, Chris-Carolin

    2017-10-01

    Rye genetic resources provide a valuable source of new alleles for the improvement of frost tolerance in rye breeding programs. Frost tolerance is a must-have trait for winter cereal production in northern and continental cropping areas. Genetic resources should harbor promising alleles for the improvement of frost tolerance of winter rye elite lines. For frost tolerance breeding, the identification of quantitative trait loci (QTL) and the choice of optimum genome-based selection methods are essential. We identified genomic regions involved in frost tolerance of winter rye by QTL mapping in a biparental population derived from a highly frost tolerant selection from the Canadian cultivar Puma and the European elite line Lo157. Lines per se and their testcrosses were phenotyped in a controlled freeze test and in multi-location field trials in Russia and Canada. Three QTL on chromosomes 4R, 5R, and 7R were consistently detected across environments. The QTL on 5R is congruent with the genomic region harboring the Frost resistance locus 2 (Fr-2) in Triticeae. The Puma allele at the Fr-R2 locus was found to significantly increase frost tolerance. A comparison of predictive ability obtained from the QTL-based model with different whole-genome prediction models revealed that besides a few large, also small QTL effects contribute to the genomic variance of frost tolerance in rye. Genomic prediction models assigning a high weight to the Fr-R2 locus allow increasing the selection intensity for frost tolerance by genome-based pre-selection of promising candidates.

  8. The periglacial engine of mountain erosion – Part 1: Rates of frost cracking and frost creep

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Andersen

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available With accelerating climate cooling in the late Cenozoic, glacial and periglacial erosion became more widespread on the surface of the Earth. The resultant shift in erosion patterns significantly changed the large-scale morphology of many mountain ranges worldwide. Whereas the glacial fingerprint is easily distinguished by its characteristic fjords and U-shaped valleys, the periglacial fingerprint is more subtle but potentially prevails in some mid- to high-latitude landscapes. Previous models have advocated a frost-driven control on debris production at steep headwalls and glacial valley sides. Here we investigate the important role that periglacial processes also play in less steep parts of mountain landscapes. Understanding the influences of frost-driven processes in low-relief areas requires a focus on the consequences of an accreting soil mantle, which characterises such surfaces. We present a new model that quantifies two key physical processes: frost cracking and frost creep, as a function of both temperature and sediment thickness. Our results yield new insights into how climate and sediment transport properties combine to scale the intensity of periglacial processes. The thickness of the soil mantle strongly modulates the relation between climate and the intensity of mechanical weathering and sediment flux. Our results also point to an offset between the conditions that promote frost cracking and those that promote frost creep, indicating that a stable climate can provide optimal conditions for only one of those processes at a time. Finally, quantifying these relations also opens up the possibility of including periglacial processes in large-scale, long-term landscape evolution models, as demonstrated in a companion paper.

  9. How endangered is sexual reproduction of high-mountain plants by summer frosts? Frost resistance, frequency of frost events and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladinig, Ursula; Hacker, Jürgen; Neuner, Gilbert; Wagner, Johanna

    2013-03-01

    In temperate-zone mountains, summer frosts usually occur during unpredictable cold spells with snow-falls. Earlier studies have shown that vegetative aboveground organs of most high-mountain plants tolerate extracellular ice in the active state. However, little is known about the impact of frost on reproductive development and reproductive success. In common plant species from the European Alps (Cerastium uniflorum, Loiseleuria procumbens, Ranunculus glacialis, Rhododendron ferrugineum, Saxifraga bryoides, S. moschata, S. caesia), differing in growth form, altitudinal distribution and phenology, frost resistance of reproductive and vegetative shoots was assessed in different reproductive stages. Intact plants were exposed to simulated night frosts between -2 and -14 °C in temperature-controlled freezers. Nucleation temperatures, freezing damage and subsequent reproductive success (fruit and seed set, seed germination) were determined. During all reproductive stages, reproductive shoots were significantly less frost resistant than vegetative shoots (mean difference for LT50 -4.2 ± 2.7 K). In most species, reproductive shoots were ice tolerant before bolting and during fruiting (mean LT50 -7 and -5.7 °C), but were ice sensitive during bolting and anthesis (mean LT50 around -4 °C). Only R. glacialis remained ice tolerant during all reproductive stages. Frost injury in reproductive shoots usually led to full fruit loss. Reproductive success of frost-treated but undamaged shoots did not differ significantly from control values. Assessing the frost damage risk on the basis of summer frost frequency and frost resistance shows that, in the alpine zone, low-statured species are rarely endangered as long as they are protected by snow. The situation is different in the subnival and nival zone, where frost-sensitive reproductive shoots may become frost damaged even when covered by snow. Unprotected individuals are at high risk of suffering from frost damage, particularly

  10. Stochastic neuron models

    CERN Document Server

    Greenwood, Priscilla E

    2016-01-01

    This book describes a large number of open problems in the theory of stochastic neural systems, with the aim of enticing probabilists to work on them. This includes problems arising from stochastic models of individual neurons as well as those arising from stochastic models of the activities of small and large networks of interconnected neurons. The necessary neuroscience background to these problems is outlined within the text, so readers can grasp the context in which they arise. This book will be useful for graduate students and instructors providing material and references for applying probability to stochastic neuron modeling. Methods and results are presented, but the emphasis is on questions where additional stochastic analysis may contribute neuroscience insight. An extensive bibliography is included. Dr. Priscilla E. Greenwood is a Professor Emerita in the Department of Mathematics at the University of British Columbia. Dr. Lawrence M. Ward is a Professor in the Department of Psychology and the Brain...

  11. Transmission of the parasite Ichthyophonus hoferi in cultured rainbow trout and comparison of epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokota, Masashi; Watanabe, Seiichi; Hatai, Kishio; Kurata, Osamu; Furihata, Mituru; Usui, Takahiko

    2008-12-01

    The epidemic process of the parasite Ichthyophonus hoferi in cultured rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss was quantitatively estimated by both the cohabitation experiment and two standard models (the Kermarck-McKendrick model and the Reed-Frost model). For analysis of the parasite transmission by cohabitation, fish in two replicate tanks were exposed to 1, 5, or 10 infected fish, and daily mortality was counted for 102 d. Despite simple experiments for artificial exposure to the pathogen, the daily estimate of dead fish in the Kermarck-McKendrick model did not fit the observed number of dead fish in the experiment. In contrast, when the longest possible incubation period (generation time) was assumed to be 51 d in the Reed-Frost model, the estimated number of dead fish in discrete generations was close to the observed number of dead fish. If the time unit was 51 d, the estimated mortalities in the generation-based Kermarck-McKendrick model were significantly correlated with observed mortalities. These results suggest that the deterministic aspects of the epidemic process of the parasite can be quantitatively demonstrated on a 51-d timescale or longer, whereas transmission on a daily timescale is uncertain.

  12. Frost evolution in tailings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-04-01

    A review was carried out on the physical and thermal mechanisms of permafrost evaluation in soils and uranium tailings. The primary mechanism controlling permafrost evolution is conductive heat transfer with the latent heat of fusion of water being liberated as phase change occurs. Depending on the soil properties and freezing rate, pore water can be expelled from the frost front or pore water can migrate towards the frost front. Solute redistribution may occur as the frost front penetrates into the soil. The rate of frost penetration is a function of the thermal properties of the tailings and the climatic conditions. Computer modelling programmes capable of modelling permafrost evolution were reviewed. The GEOTHERM programme was selected as being the most appropriate for this study. The GEOTHERM programme uses the finite element method of thermal analysis. The ground surface temperature is determined by solving the energy balance equations a the ground surface. The GEOTHERM programme was used to simulate the permafrost evolution in the Key Lake Mine tailings located in north central Saskatchewan. The analyses indicated that the existing frozen zones in the tailing pond will eventually thaw if an average snow depth covers the tailings. Hundreds of years are required to thaw the tailings. If minimal snow cover is present the extent of the frozen zone in the tailings will increase

  13. Representation of Solar Capacity Value in the ReEDS Capacity Expansion Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sigrin, B. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, P. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ibanez, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, R. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2014-03-01

    An important issue for electricity system operators is the estimation of renewables' capacity contributions to reliably meeting system demand, or their capacity value. While the capacity value of thermal generation can be estimated easily, assessment of wind and solar requires a more nuanced approach due to the resource variability. Reliability-based methods, particularly assessment of the Effective Load-Carrying Capacity, are considered to be the most robust and widely-accepted techniques for addressing this resource variability. This report compares estimates of solar PV capacity value by the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model against two sources. The first comparison is against values published by utilities or other entities for known electrical systems at existing solar penetration levels. The second comparison is against a time-series ELCC simulation tool for high renewable penetration scenarios in the Western Interconnection. Results from the ReEDS model are found to compare well with both comparisons, despite being resolved at a super-hourly temporal resolution. Two results are relevant for other capacity-based models that use a super-hourly resolution to model solar capacity value. First, solar capacity value should not be parameterized as a static value, but must decay with increasing penetration. This is because -- for an afternoon-peaking system -- as solar penetration increases, the system's peak net load shifts to later in the day -- when solar output is lower. Second, long-term planning models should determine system adequacy requirements in each time period in order to approximate LOLP calculations. Within the ReEDS model we resolve these issues by using a capacity value estimate that varies by time-slice. Within each time period the net load and shadow price on ReEDS's planning reserve constraint signals the relative importance of additional firm capacity.

  14. Implementation of Bin Packing Model for Reed Switch Production Planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parra, Rainier Romero [Polytechnic University of Baja California, Calle de la Claridad S/N, Col Plutarco Elias Calles, Mexicali, B. C., 21376 (Mexico); Burtseva, Larysa [Engineering Institute, Autonomous University of Baja California, Calle de la Normal S/N, Col. Insurgentes Este, Mexicali, BC, 21280 (Mexico)

    2010-06-17

    This paper presents a form to resolve a real problem of efficient material election in reed switch manufacturing. The carrying out of the consumer demands depends on the stochastic results of the classification process where each lot of switches is distributed into bins according to an electric measure value. Various glass types are employed for the switch manufacturing. The effect caused by the glass type variation on the switch classification results was investigated. Based on real data statistic analysis, the problem is reduced to the lot number minimizing taking into consideration the glass type, and interpreted as a bin packing problem generalization. On difference to the classic bin packing problem, in the considered case, an item represents a set of pieces; a container is divided into a number of bins (sub-containers); the bin capacity is variable; there are the assignment restrictions between bins and sets of pieces; the items are allowed to be fragmented into bins and containers. The problem has a high complexity. A heuristic offline algorithm is proposed to find the quantity, types and packing sequence of containers, the item fragments associated with containers and bins. The bin capacities do not affect the algorithm.

  15. Implementation of Bin Packing Model for Reed Switch Production Planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parra, Rainier Romero; Burtseva, Larysa

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a form to resolve a real problem of efficient material election in reed switch manufacturing. The carrying out of the consumer demands depends on the stochastic results of the classification process where each lot of switches is distributed into bins according to an electric measure value. Various glass types are employed for the switch manufacturing. The effect caused by the glass type variation on the switch classification results was investigated. Based on real data statistic analysis, the problem is reduced to the lot number minimizing taking into consideration the glass type, and interpreted as a bin packing problem generalization. On difference to the classic bin packing problem, in the considered case, an item represents a set of pieces; a container is divided into a number of bins (sub-containers); the bin capacity is variable; there are the assignment restrictions between bins and sets of pieces; the items are allowed to be fragmented into bins and containers. The problem has a high complexity. A heuristic offline algorithm is proposed to find the quantity, types and packing sequence of containers, the item fragments associated with containers and bins. The bin capacities do not affect the algorithm.

  16. Stochastic biomathematical models with applications to neuronal modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Batzel, Jerry; Ditlevsen, Susanne

    2013-01-01

    Stochastic biomathematical models are becoming increasingly important as new light is shed on the role of noise in living systems. In certain biological systems, stochastic effects may even enhance a signal, thus providing a biological motivation for the noise observed in living systems. Recent advances in stochastic analysis and increasing computing power facilitate the analysis of more biophysically realistic models, and this book provides researchers in computational neuroscience and stochastic systems with an overview of recent developments. Key concepts are developed in chapters written by experts in their respective fields. Topics include: one-dimensional homogeneous diffusions and their boundary behavior, large deviation theory and its application in stochastic neurobiological models, a review of mathematical methods for stochastic neuronal integrate-and-fire models, stochastic partial differential equation models in neurobiology, and stochastic modeling of spreading cortical depression.

  17. Predictive modeling of freezing and thawing of frost-susceptible soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Frost depth is an essential factor in design of various transportation infrastructures. In frost : susceptible soils, as soils freezes, water migrates through the soil voids below the freezing line : towards the freezing front and causes excessive he...

  18. Full-scale chilled pipeline frost heave testing, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hazen, B. [Northern Engineering and Scientific, Anchorage, AK (United States); Isaacs, R.M. [RMI Associates, Camano Island, WA (United States); Myrick, J.E. [Myrick International, Tyler, TX (United States)

    2010-07-01

    This paper discussed a chilled pipeline frost-heave testing facility that was developed to simulate and record the rate of frost heave and frost-bulb growth for a buried, chilled pipeline in frost-susceptible soil and to determine the effectiveness of different mitigation techniques. The test facility, which was established near Fairbanks, Alaska, in 1979, has 10 test sections using 1.22-metre-diameter pipe. The testing involved un-insulated, insulated, and insulated with over-excavation and gravel berm configurations as well as the frost heave of the chilled pipeline. The test facility was described in detail. Frost heave and frost-bulb growth measurements from the first 10 months of testing were presented, as these are the first data to enter the public domain. The testing was undertaken to investigate the frost-heave relationships between sections, to better understand frost heave in permafrost, to explore possible mitigation options, and to advance the predicative capabilities of frost heave models. 12 refs., 1 tab., 17 figs.

  19. Two-dimensional model of coupled heat and moisture transport in frost-heaving soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guymon, G.L.; Berg, R.L.; Hromadka, T.V.

    1984-01-01

    A two-dimensional model of coupled heat and moisture flow in frost-heaving soils is developed based upon well known equations of heat and moisture flow in soils. Numerical solution is by the nodal domain integration method which includes the integrated finite difference and the Galerkin finite element methods. Solution of the phase change process is approximated by an isothermal approach and phenomenological equations are assumed for processes occurring in freezing or thawing zones. The model has been verified against experimental one-dimensional freezing soil column data and experimental two-dimensional soil thawing tank data as well as two-dimensional soil seepage data. The model has been applied to several simple but useful field problems such as roadway embankment freezing and frost heaving

  20. Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Short, W.; Sullivan, P.; Mai, T.; Mowers, M.; Uriarte, C.; Blair, N.; Heimiller, D.; Martinez, A.

    2011-12-01

    The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) is a deterministic optimization model of the deployment of electric power generation technologies and transmission infrastructure throughout the contiguous United States into the future. The model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Strategic Energy Analysis Center, is designed to analyze the critical energy issues in the electric sector, especially with respect to potential energy policies, such as clean energy and renewable energy standards or carbon restrictions. ReEDS provides a detailed treatment of electricity-generating and electrical storage technologies and specifically addresses a variety of issues related to renewable energy technologies, including accessibility and cost of transmission, regional quality of renewable resources, seasonal and diurnal generation profiles, variability of wind and solar power, and the influence of variability on the reliability of the electrical grid. ReEDS addresses these issues through a highly discretized regional structure, explicit statistical treatment of the variability in wind and solar output over time, and consideration of ancillary services' requirements and costs.

  1. Numerical and experimental investigation on frosting of energy-recovery ventilator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilodeau, Stephane; Mercadier, Yves; Brousseau, Patrick

    Frosting of energy-recovery ventilators results in two major problems: increase of pressure losses and reduction of heat transfer rates. Frost formation of heat and mass exchangers used in these ventilation systems is investigated both experimentally and numerically. A numerical model for the prediction of the thermal behavior of the exchanger is presented. The model is validated with experimental data and is then employed to conduct a parametric study. Results indicate that the absolute humidity is the prevailing parameter for characterizing the frosting phenomenon. A frost-mass-fraction chart is established in terms of the absolute humidity of the warm exhaust stream and of the temperature of the cold supply stream. The effect of time and mass flowrate is also evaluated. The transient three-dimensional model shows that the absolute humidity and the temperature of both air flows vary nonlinearly in the frosted zone.

  2. Climate change and spring frost damages for sweet cherries in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chmielewski, Frank-M.; Götz, Klaus-P.; Weber, Katharina C.; Moryson, Susanne

    2018-02-01

    Spring frost can be a limiting factor in sweet cherry ( Prunus avium L.) production. Rising temperatures in spring force the development of buds, whereby their vulnerability to freezing temperatures continuously increases. With the beginning of blossom, flowers can resist only light frosts without any significant damage. In this study, we investigated the risk of spring frost damages during cherry blossom for historical and future climate conditions at two different sites in NE (Berlin) and SW Germany (Geisenheim). Two phenological models, developed on the basis of phenological observations at the experimental sweet cherry orchard in Berlin-Dahlem and validated for endodormancy release and for warmer climate conditions (already published), were used to calculate the beginning of cherry blossom in Geisenheim, 1951-2015 (external model validation). Afterwards, on the basis of a statistical regionalisation model WETTREG (RCP 8.5), the frequency of frost during cherry blossom was calculated at both sites for historical (1971-2000) and future climate conditions (2011-2100). From these data, we derived the final flower damage, defined as the percentage of frozen flowers due to single or multiple frost events during blossom. The results showed that rising temperatures in this century can premature the beginning of cherry blossom up to 17 days at both sites, independent of the used phenological model. The frequency and strength of frost was characterised by a high temporal and local variability. For both sites, no significant increase in frost frequency and frost damage during blossom was found. In Geisenheim, frost damages significantly decreased from the middle of the twenty-first century. This study additionally emphasises the importance of reliable phenological models which not only work for current but also for changed climate conditions and at different sites. The date of endodormancy release should always be a known parameter in chilling/forcing models.

  3. Effect of variations in air speed on cross-flow cylinder frosting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monaghan, P.F.; Cassidy, S.F.; Oosthuizen, P.H.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper the effect of fluctuating air speed on frost growth and heat transfer to a cylinder in cross-flow is discussed. Frost-growth of up to 20 hours is simulated using an experimentally validated finite difference computer model. Graphical results are presented for frost mass, frost depth, frost surface temperature and heat transfer versus time under both steady and fluctuating air speed conditions. In general, it is found that a thinner, more dense frost layer develops under fluctuating air speed conditions giving improved heat transfer. This phenomenon may be explained by the increased frequency of frost surface thaw/freeze cycles when fluctuating air speed conditions prevail

  4. A study on frost formation

    OpenAIRE

    青木, 和夫

    1986-01-01

    When humid air is exposed to a cold surface whose temperature is below 0 \\C\\, frost deposition occurs and continues to accumulate on the surface. Frost deposition is an important phenomenon in cryogenic industries for use in air conditioners, refrigerators and freeze-out purification, because it causes the drop of thermal efficiency on heat exchangers.This paper presented a review of our previous studies on frost formation with emphasis on the frost growth process, the frost structure, the gr...

  5. Assessing Wheat Frost Risk with the Support of GIS: An Approach Coupling a Growing Season Meteorological Index and a Hybrid Fuzzy Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaojie Yue

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Crop frost, one kind of agro-meteorological disaster, often causes significant loss to agriculture. Thus, evaluating the risk of wheat frost aids scientific response to such disasters, which will ultimately promote food security. Therefore, this paper aims to propose an integrated risk assessment model of wheat frost, based on meteorological data and a hybrid fuzzy neural network model, taking China as an example. With the support of a geographic information system (GIS, a comprehensive method was put forward. Firstly, threshold temperatures of wheat frost at three growth stages were proposed, referring to phenology in different wheat growing areas and the meteorological standard of Degree of Crop Frost Damage (QX/T 88-2008. Secondly, a vulnerability curve illustrating the relationship between frost hazard intensity and wheat yield loss was worked out using hybrid fuzzy neural network model. Finally, the wheat frost risk was assessed in China. Results show that our proposed threshold temperatures are more suitable than using 0 °C in revealing the spatial pattern of frost occurrence, and hybrid fuzzy neural network model can further improve the accuracy of the vulnerability curve of wheat subject to frost with limited historical hazard records. Both these advantages ensure the precision of wheat frost risk assessment. In China, frost widely distributes in 85.00% of the total winter wheat planting area, but mainly to the north of 35°N; the southern boundary of wheat frost has moved northward, potentially because of the warming climate. There is a significant trend that suggests high risk areas will enlarge and gradually expand to the south, with the risk levels increasing from a return period of 2 years to 20 years. Among all wheat frost risk levels, the regions with loss rate ranges from 35.00% to 45.00% account for the largest area proportion, ranging from 58.60% to 63.27%. We argue that for wheat and other frost-affected crops, it is

  6. On the Effective Thermal Conductivity of Frost Considering Mass Diffusion and Eddy Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandula, Max

    2010-01-01

    A physical model for the effective thermal conductivity of water frost is proposed for application to the full range of frost density. The proposed model builds on the Zehner-Schlunder one-dimensional formulation for porous media appropriate for solid-to-fluid thermal conductivity ratios less than about 1000. By superposing the effects of mass diffusion and eddy convection on stagnant conduction in the fluid, the total effective thermal conductivity of frost is shown to be satisfactorily described. It is shown that the effects of vapor diffusion and eddy convection on the frost conductivity are of the same order. The results also point out that idealization of the frost structure by cylindrical inclusions offers a better representation of the effective conductivity of frost as compared to spherical inclusions. Satisfactory agreement between the theory and the measurements for the effective thermal conductivity of frost is demonstrated for a wide range of frost density and frost temperature.

  7. Enhanced by Frost

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    30 September 2005 This Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) image shows outcrops of south polar layered terrain. Their appearance in this July 2005 springtime image is enhanced by bright patches of carbon dioxide frost. The frost is left over from the previous southern winter season; by summer, the frost would be gone. Location near: 84.6oS, 203.5oW Image width: width: 3 km (1.9 mi) Illumination from: upper left Season: Southern Spring

  8. Development library of finite elements for computer-aided design system of reed sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, A. S.; Shmakov, N. A.; Tkalich, V. L.; Labkovskaia, R. I.; Kalinkina, M. E.; Pirozhnikova, O. I.

    2018-05-01

    The article is devoted to the development of a modern highly reliable element base of devices for security and fire alarm systems, in particular, to the improvement of the quality of contact cores (reed and membrane) of reed sensors. Modeling of elastic sensitive elements uses quadrangular elements of plates and shells, considered in the system of curvilinear orthogonal coordinates. The developed mathematical models and the formed finite element library are designed for systems of automated design of reed switch detectors to create competitive devices alarms. The finite element library is used for the automated system production of reed switch detectors both in series production and in the implementation of individual orders.

  9. Frost on Utopia Planitia

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-01-01

    This Viking Lander 2 picture from Utopia Planitia shows the first clear indication of frost accumulation on the Martian surface seen by lander cameras. The picture, looking due north, was obtained with a blue filter at 12:59 p.m. local lander time, Sept. 13, 1977. The season is late winter. Frost appears as a white accumulation around the bottom of rocks, in a trench dug by the lander sampler arm, and in scattered patches on the darker surface. The shadow of the lander, including the camera (center) and the meteorology boom (left), appears in foreground. As the sun moves, the shadow is moving from left to right, exposing areas covered by frost and previously protected from the sun by the lander shadow. (Another image taken one-half hour later suggests the frost patches have become smaller.) Apparently frost, formed during the Martian night, at least partially disappears during the warmer daytime. The composition of the frost, whether carbon dioxide or water or a mixture of the two (CO2 clathrate), is not known. Measurements from the meteorology instrument indicate minimum nighttime temperatures of 160 Kelvin (-171 Fahrenheit). At the time the image was taken, the temperature had risen to 175 Kelvin (-144 Fahrenheit). The atmospheric pressure was 8.835 millibars. This combination of pressure and temperature are inconsistent with carbon dioxide frost formation, but plausible near-surface mechanisms might have resulted in conditions favorable for CO2 frost formation. Viking orbiter thermal mapping and water vapor instruments indicate temperatures might have been slightly lower than measured by the lander, suggesting that the frost is more likely CO2 than H20. A remote, but possible, explanation is that the material is an extremely bright dust deposit. Color images to be taken will be able to discount this interpretation. The mechanism for frost deposition is unknown. Possibilities include formation directly on the surface, precipitation as snow, or material blown to

  10. Stochastic Still Water Response Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Hansen, Peter; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2002-01-01

    In this study a stochastic field model for the still water loading is formulated where the statistics (mean value, standard deviation, and correlation) of the sectional forces are obtained by integration of the load field over the relevant part of the ship structure. The objective of the model is...... out that an important parameter of the stochastic cargo field model is the mean number of containers delivered by each customer.......In this study a stochastic field model for the still water loading is formulated where the statistics (mean value, standard deviation, and correlation) of the sectional forces are obtained by integration of the load field over the relevant part of the ship structure. The objective of the model...... is to establish the stochastic load field conditional on a given draft and trim of the vessel. The model contributes to a realistic modelling of the stochastic load processes to be used in a reliability evaluation of the ship hull. Emphasis is given to container vessels. The formulation of the model for obtaining...

  11. "ON ALGEBRAIC DECODING OF Q-ARY REED-MULLER AND PRODUCT REED-SOLOMON CODES"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    SANTHI, NANDAKISHORE [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2007-01-22

    We consider a list decoding algorithm recently proposed by Pellikaan-Wu for q-ary Reed-Muller codes RM{sub q}({ell}, m, n) of length n {le} q{sup m} when {ell} {le} q. A simple and easily accessible correctness proof is given which shows that this algorithm achieves a relative error-correction radius of {tau} {le} (1-{radical}{ell}q{sup m-1}/n). This is an improvement over the proof using one-point Algebraic-Geometric decoding method given in. The described algorithm can be adapted to decode product Reed-Solomon codes. We then propose a new low complexity recursive aJgebraic decoding algorithm for product Reed-Solomon codes and Reed-Muller codes. This algorithm achieves a relative error correction radius of {tau} {le} {Pi}{sub i=1}{sup m} (1 - {radical}k{sub i}/q). This algorithm is then proved to outperform the Pellikaan-Wu algorithm in both complexity and error correction radius over a wide range of code rates.

  12. Frost behavior of a fin surface with temperature variation along heat exchanger fins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jung Soo; Kim, Min Soo; Lee, Kwan Soo; Kim, Ook Joong

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a mathematical model for predicting the frost behavior formed on heat exchanger fins, considering fin heat conduction under frosting condition. The model is composed of air-side, the frost layer, and fin region, and they are coupled to the frost layer. The frost behavior is more accurately predicted with fin heat conduction considered (Case A) than with a constant fin surface temperature assumed (Case B). The results indicate that the frost thickness and heat transfer rate for Case B are over-predicted in most regions of the fin, as compared to those for Case A. Also, for Case A, the maximum frost thickness varies little with the fin length variations, and the extension of the fin length over 30 mm contributes insignificantly to heat transfer

  13. Stochastic-field cavitation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumond, J.; Magagnato, F.; Class, A.

    2013-01-01

    Nonlinear phenomena can often be well described using probability density functions (pdf) and pdf transport models. Traditionally, the simulation of pdf transport requires Monte-Carlo codes based on Lagrangian “particles” or prescribed pdf assumptions including binning techniques. Recently, in the field of combustion, a novel formulation called the stochastic-field method solving pdf transport based on Eulerian fields has been proposed which eliminates the necessity to mix Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques or prescribed pdf assumptions. In the present work, for the first time the stochastic-field method is applied to multi-phase flow and, in particular, to cavitating flow. To validate the proposed stochastic-field cavitation model, two applications are considered. First, sheet cavitation is simulated in a Venturi-type nozzle. The second application is an innovative fluidic diode which exhibits coolant flashing. Agreement with experimental results is obtained for both applications with a fixed set of model constants. The stochastic-field cavitation model captures the wide range of pdf shapes present at different locations

  14. Stochastic-field cavitation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumond, J.; Magagnato, F.; Class, A.

    2013-07-01

    Nonlinear phenomena can often be well described using probability density functions (pdf) and pdf transport models. Traditionally, the simulation of pdf transport requires Monte-Carlo codes based on Lagrangian "particles" or prescribed pdf assumptions including binning techniques. Recently, in the field of combustion, a novel formulation called the stochastic-field method solving pdf transport based on Eulerian fields has been proposed which eliminates the necessity to mix Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques or prescribed pdf assumptions. In the present work, for the first time the stochastic-field method is applied to multi-phase flow and, in particular, to cavitating flow. To validate the proposed stochastic-field cavitation model, two applications are considered. First, sheet cavitation is simulated in a Venturi-type nozzle. The second application is an innovative fluidic diode which exhibits coolant flashing. Agreement with experimental results is obtained for both applications with a fixed set of model constants. The stochastic-field cavitation model captures the wide range of pdf shapes present at different locations.

  15. Frost risk for overwintering crops in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vico, Giulia; Weih, Martin

    2013-04-01

    Climate change scenarios predict a general increase in daily temperatures and a decline in snow cover duration. On the one hand, higher temperature in fall and spring may facilitate the development of overwintering crops and allow the expansion of winter cropping in locations where the growing season is currently too short. On the other hand, higher temperatures prior to winter crop dormancy slow down frost hardening, enhancing crop vulnerability to temperature fluctuation. Such vulnerability may be exacerbated by reduced snow cover, with potential further negative impacts on yields in extremely low temperatures. We propose a parsimonious probabilistic model to quantify the winter frost damage risk for overwintering crops, based on a coupled model of air temperature, snow cover, and crop minimum tolerable temperature. The latter is determined by crop features, previous history of temperature, and snow cover. The temperature-snow cover model is tested against meteorological data collected over 50 years in Sweden and applied to winter wheat varieties differing in their ability to acquire frost resistance. Hence, exploiting experimental results assessing crop frost damage under limited temperature and snow cover realizations, this probabilistic framework allows the quantification of frost risk for different crop varieties, including in full temperature and precipitation unpredictability. Climate change scenarios are explored to quantify the effects of changes in temperature mean and variance and precipitation regime over crops differing in winter frost resistance and response to temperature.

  16. Simulation of Single Reed Instruments Oscillations Based on Modal Decomposition of Bore and Reed Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, Fabrice; Debut, Vincent; Kergomard, Jean; Vergez, Christophe; Deblevid, Aude; Guillemain, Philippe

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the sound production in a system made of a bore coupled with a reed valve. Extending previous work (Debut, 2004), the input impedance of the bore is projected on the modes of the air column. The acoustic pressure is therefore calculated as the sum of modal components. The airrrflow blown into the bore is modulated by reed motion, assuming the reed to be a single degree of freedom oscillator. Calculation of self-sustained oscillations controlled by time-varyi...

  17. Research on nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiaorui; Xu Wei; Xie Wenxian; Ren Zhengzheng

    2008-01-01

    In consideration of many uncertain factors existing in economic system, nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model which is subjected to Gaussian white noise excitation is proposed based on deterministic model. One-dimensional averaged Ito stochastic differential equation for the model is derived by using the stochastic averaging method, and applied to investigate the stability of the trivial solution and the first-passage failure of the stochastic price model. The stochastic price model and the methods presented in this paper are verified by numerical studies

  18. Double-reed exhaust valve engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Charles L.

    2015-06-30

    An engine based on a reciprocating piston engine that extracts work from pressurized working fluid. The engine includes a double reed outlet valve for controlling the flow of low-pressure working fluid out of the engine. The double reed provides a stronger force resisting closure of the outlet valve than the force tending to open the outlet valve. The double reed valve enables engine operation at relatively higher torque and lower efficiency at low speed, with lower torque, but higher efficiency at high speed.

  19. Frost heave in He

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizusaki, T.; Hiroi, M.

    1995-01-01

    Frost heave occurs in various phenomena in natural environment. It has been studied in helium on porous glasses under perfect ice-segregation condition. The maximum frost heave pressure was investigated for various conditions and was in good agreement with the thermodynamical prediction. The dynamical properties of frost heave are discussed and some of the preliminary results of the growth rate measurement are presented. (orig.)

  20. QTL analysis of frost damage in pea suggests different mechanisms involved in frost tolerance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Anthony; Houtin, Hervé; Rond, Céline; Marget, Pascal; Jacquin, Françoise; Boucherot, Karen; Huart, Myriam; Rivière, Nathalie; Boutet, Gilles; Lejeune-Hénaut, Isabelle; Burstin, Judith

    2014-06-01

    Avoidance mechanisms and intrinsic resistance are complementary strategies to improve winter frost tolerance and yield potential in field pea. The development of the winter pea crop represents a major challenge to expand plant protein production in temperate areas. Breeding winter cultivars requires the combination of freezing tolerance as well as high seed productivity and quality. In this context, we investigated the genetic determinism of winter frost tolerance and assessed its genetic relationship with yield and developmental traits. Using a newly identified source of frost resistance, we developed a population of recombinant inbred lines and evaluated it in six environments in Dijon and Clermont-Ferrand between 2005 and 2010. We developed a genetic map comprising 679 markers distributed over seven linkage groups and covering 947.1 cM. One hundred sixty-one quantitative trait loci (QTL) explaining 9-71 % of the phenotypic variation were detected across the six environments for all traits measured. Two clusters of QTL mapped on the linkage groups III and one cluster on LGVI reveal the genetic links between phenology, morphology, yield-related traits and frost tolerance in winter pea. QTL clusters on LGIII highlighted major developmental gene loci (Hr and Le) and the QTL cluster on LGVI explained up to 71 % of the winter frost damage variation. This suggests that a specific architecture and flowering ideotype defines frost tolerance in winter pea. However, two consistent frost tolerance QTL on LGV were independent of phenology and morphology traits, showing that different protective mechanisms are involved in frost tolerance. Finally, these results suggest that frost tolerance can be bred independently to seed productivity and quality.

  1. Delayed frost growth on jumping-drop superhydrophobic surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boreyko, Jonathan B; Collier, C Patrick

    2013-02-26

    Self-propelled jumping drops are continuously removed from a condensing superhydrophobic surface to enable a micrometric steady-state drop size. Here, we report that subcooled condensate on a chilled superhydrophobic surface are able to repeatedly jump off the surface before heterogeneous ice nucleation occurs. Frost still forms on the superhydrophobic surface due to ice nucleation at neighboring edge defects, which eventually spreads over the entire surface via an interdrop frost wave. The growth of this interdrop frost front is shown to be up to 3 times slower on the superhydrophobic surface compared to a control hydrophobic surface, due to the jumping-drop effect dynamically minimizing the average drop size and surface coverage of the condensate. A simple scaling model is developed to relate the success and speed of interdrop ice bridging to the drop size distribution. While other reports of condensation frosting on superhydrophobic surfaces have focused exclusively on liquid-solid ice nucleation for isolated drops, these findings reveal that the growth of frost is an interdrop phenomenon that is strongly coupled to the wettability and drop size distribution of the surface. A jumping-drop superhydrophobic condenser minimized frost formation relative to a conventional dropwise condenser in two respects: preventing heterogeneous ice nucleation by continuously removing subcooled condensate, and delaying frost growth by limiting the success of interdrop ice bridge formation.

  2. Robert Frost: Teacher "Earner, Learner, Yearner."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Nancy Sue

    An account of Robert Frost's teaching, along with an assessment of it, are presented. Material consulted includes Frost's published letters, prose, and poetry; Lawrance Thompson's authorized biography; Lesley Frost's "New Hampshire's Child: The Derry Journals of Lesley Frost;" and additional sources such as films and periodicals,…

  3. Alternative Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe stochastic volatility model usually incorporates asymmetric effects by introducing the negative correlation between the innovations in returns and volatility. In this paper, we propose a new asymmetric stochastic volatility model, based on the leverage and size effects. The model is

  4. Modeling and Forecasting the Onset and Duration of Severe Radiation Fog under Frost Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velde, van der I.R.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Wichers Schreur, B.G.J.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

    2010-01-01

    A case of a severe radiation fog during frost conditions is analyzed as a benchmark for the development of a very high resolution NWP model. Results by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the High resolution limited area model (HIRLAM) are evaluated against detailed observations to

  5. Evaluating the Value of High Spatial Resolution in National Capacity Expansion Models using ReEDS: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

    2016-07-01

    Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solar modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions--native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERC region level--and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.

  6. Evaluating the Value of High Spatial Resolution in National Capacity Expansion Models using ReEDS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

    2016-07-18

    This poster is based on the paper of the same name, presented at the IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting, July18, 2016. Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solar modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions - native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERC region level - and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.

  7. Modeling and Forecasting the Onset and Duration of Severe Radiation Fog under Frost Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Velde, I. R.; Steeneveld, G. J.; Schreur, B. G. J. Wichers; Holtslag, A. A. M.

    2010-01-01

    A case of a severe radiation fog during frost conditions is analyzed as a benchmark for the development of a very high-resolution NWP model Results by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the High Resolution Limited Area Model (H I RLAM) are evaluated against detailed observations to

  8. Stochasticity Modeling in Memristors

    KAUST Repository

    Naous, Rawan

    2015-10-26

    Diverse models have been proposed over the past years to explain the exhibiting behavior of memristors, the fourth fundamental circuit element. The models varied in complexity ranging from a description of physical mechanisms to a more generalized mathematical modeling. Nonetheless, stochasticity, a widespread observed phenomenon, has been immensely overlooked from the modeling perspective. This inherent variability within the operation of the memristor is a vital feature for the integration of this nonlinear device into the stochastic electronics realm of study. In this paper, experimentally observed innate stochasticity is modeled in a circuit compatible format. The model proposed is generic and could be incorporated into variants of threshold-based memristor models in which apparent variations in the output hysteresis convey the switching threshold shift. Further application as a noise injection alternative paves the way for novel approaches in the fields of neuromorphic engineering circuits design. On the other hand, extra caution needs to be paid to variability intolerant digital designs based on non-deterministic memristor logic.

  9. Stochasticity Modeling in Memristors

    KAUST Repository

    Naous, Rawan; Al-Shedivat, Maruan; Salama, Khaled N.

    2015-01-01

    Diverse models have been proposed over the past years to explain the exhibiting behavior of memristors, the fourth fundamental circuit element. The models varied in complexity ranging from a description of physical mechanisms to a more generalized mathematical modeling. Nonetheless, stochasticity, a widespread observed phenomenon, has been immensely overlooked from the modeling perspective. This inherent variability within the operation of the memristor is a vital feature for the integration of this nonlinear device into the stochastic electronics realm of study. In this paper, experimentally observed innate stochasticity is modeled in a circuit compatible format. The model proposed is generic and could be incorporated into variants of threshold-based memristor models in which apparent variations in the output hysteresis convey the switching threshold shift. Further application as a noise injection alternative paves the way for novel approaches in the fields of neuromorphic engineering circuits design. On the other hand, extra caution needs to be paid to variability intolerant digital designs based on non-deterministic memristor logic.

  10. Frost resistance in alpine woody plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuner, Gilbert

    2014-01-01

    This report provides a brief review of key findings related to frost resistance in alpine woody plant species, summarizes data on their frost resistance, highlights the importance of freeze avoidance mechanisms, and indicates areas of future research. Freezing temperatures are possible throughout the whole growing period in the alpine life zone. Frost severity, comprised of both intensity and duration, becomes greater with increasing elevation and, there is also a greater probability, that small statured woody plants, may be insulated by snow cover. Several frost survival mechanisms have evolved in woody alpine plants in response to these environmental conditions. Examples of tolerance to extracellular freezing and freeze dehydration, life cycles that allow species to escape frost, and freeze avoidance mechanisms can all be found. Despite their specific adaption to the alpine environment, frost damage can occur in spring, while all alpine woody plants have a low risk of frost damage in winter. Experimental evidence indicates that premature deacclimation in Pinus cembra in the spring, and a limited ability of many species of alpine woody shrubs to rapidly reacclimate when they lose snow cover, resulting in reduced levels of frost resistance in the spring, may be particularly critical under the projected changes in climate. In this review, frost resistance and specific frost survival mechanisms of different organs (leaves, stems, vegetative and reproductive over-wintering buds, flowers, and fruits) and tissues are compared. The seasonal dynamics of frost resistance of leaves of trees, as opposed to woody shrubs, is also discussed. The ability of some tissues and organs to avoid freezing by supercooling, as visualized by high resolution infrared thermography, are also provided. Collectively, the report provides a review of the complex and diverse ways that woody plants survive in the frost dominated environment of the alpine life zone.

  11. Frost resistance of alpine woody plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilbert eNeuner

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This report provides a brief review of key findings related to frost resistance in alpine woody plant species, summarizes data on their frost resistance, highlights the importance of freeze avoidance mechanisms, and indicates areas of future research.Freezing temperatures are possible throughout the whole growing period in the alpine life zone. Frost severity, comprised of both intensity and duration, becomes greater with increasing elevation and, there is also a greater probability, that small statured woody plants, may be insulated by snow cover.Several frost survival mechanisms have evolved in woody alpine plants in response to these environmental conditions. Examples of tolerance to extracellular freezing and freeze dehydration, life cycles that allow species to escape frost, and freeze avoidance mechanisms can all be found. Despite their specific adaption to the alpine environment, frost damage can occur in spring, while all alpine woody plants have a low risk of frost damage in winter. Experimental evidence indicates that premature deacclimation in Pinus cembra in the spring, and a limited ability of many species of alpine woody shrubs to rapidly reacclimate when they lose snow cover, resulting in reduced levels of frost resistance in the spring, may be particularly critical under the projected changes in climate.In this review, frost resistance and specific frost survival mechanisms of different organs (leaves, stems, vegetative and reproductive over-wintering buds, flowers and fruits and tissues are compared. The seasonal dynamics of frost resistance of leaves of trees, as opposed to woody shrubs, is also discussed. The ability of some tissues and organs to avoid freezing by supercooling, as visualized by high resolution infrared thermography, are also provided. Collectively, the report provides a review of the complex and diverse ways that woody plants survive in the frost dominated environment of the alpine life zone.

  12. Experimental and numerical study on frost heave of saturated rock under uniform freezing conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Zhitao; Xia, Caichu; Li, Qiang

    2018-04-01

    A series of freezing experiments are conducted on saturated sandstone and mortar specimens to investigate the frost heave of saturated rock under uniform freezing conditions. The experimental results show that the frost heave of saturated rock is isotropic under uniform freezing conditions. During the freezing process, three stages are observed in the curves of variation of total frost heaving strain versus time: the thermal contraction stage, the frost heaving stage and the steady stage. Moreover, the amount of final stable frost heave first increases and then decreases with decrease in freezing temperature, and the maximum final stable frost heave occurs at different freezing temperature in saturated sandstone and mortar. Furthermore, a coupled thermal-mechanical (TM) model of frost heave of saturated rock is proposed in which a constraint coefficient \\zeta is used to consider the susceptibility of the internal rock grain structure to the expansion of pore ice. Then, numerical simulations are implemented with COMSOL to solve the governing equations of the TM model. Comparisons of the numerical results with the experimental results are performed to demonstrate the reliability of the model. The influences of elastic modulus and porosity on frost heave are also investigated, and the results show that the total frost heaving strain decreases non-linearly with increasing elastic modulus, and the decrease is significant when the elastic modulus is less than 3000 MPa, or approximately five times the elastic modulus of ice. In addition, the total frost heaving strain increases linearly with increasing porosity. Finally, an empirical equation between total frost heaving strain and freezing temperature is proposed and the equation well describes the variation of total frost heaving strain with freezing temperature.

  13. Frost Heave in Colloidal Soils

    KAUST Repository

    Peppin, Stephen; Majumdar, Apala; Style, Robert; Sander, Graham

    2011-01-01

    We develop a mathematical model of frost heave in colloidal soils. The theory accountsfor heave and consolidation while not requiring a frozen fringe assumption. Two solidificationregimes occur: a compaction regime in which the soil consolidates

  14. Stochastic models: theory and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, Richard V., Jr.

    2008-03-01

    Many problems in applied science and engineering involve physical phenomena that behave randomly in time and/or space. Examples are diverse and include turbulent flow over an aircraft wing, Earth climatology, material microstructure, and the financial markets. Mathematical models for these random phenomena are referred to as stochastic processes and/or random fields, and Monte Carlo simulation is the only general-purpose tool for solving problems of this type. The use of Monte Carlo simulation requires methods and algorithms to generate samples of the appropriate stochastic model; these samples then become inputs and/or boundary conditions to established deterministic simulation codes. While numerous algorithms and tools currently exist to generate samples of simple random variables and vectors, no cohesive simulation tool yet exists for generating samples of stochastic processes and/or random fields. There are two objectives of this report. First, we provide some theoretical background on stochastic processes and random fields that can be used to model phenomena that are random in space and/or time. Second, we provide simple algorithms that can be used to generate independent samples of general stochastic models. The theory and simulation of random variables and vectors is also reviewed for completeness.

  15. Coupling of THALES and FROST using MPI Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jin Woo; Ryu, Seok Hee; Jung, Chan Do; Jung, Jee Hoon; Um, Kil Sup; Lee, Jae Il

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the coupling method between THALES and FROST and the simulation results with the coupled code system. In this study, subchannel analysis code THALES and transient fuel performance code FROST were coupled using MPI method as the first stage of the development of the multi-dimensional safety analysis methodology. As a part of the validation, the CEA ejection accident was simulated using the coupled THALES-FROST code and the results were compared with the ShinKori 3 and 4 FSAR. Comparison results revealed that CHASER using MPI method predicts fuel temperatures and heat flux quantitatively well. Thus it was confirmed that the THALES and FROST are properly coupled. In near future, ASTRA, multi-dimensional core neutron kinetics code, will be linked to THALESFROST code for the detailed three-dimensional CEA ejection analysis. The current safety analysis methodology for a CEA ejection accident based on numerous conservative assumptions with the point kinetics model results in quite adverse consequences. Thus, KNF is developing the multi-dimensional safety analysis methodology to enhance the consequences of the CEA ejection accident. For this purpose, three-dimensional core neutron kinetics code ASTRA, subchannel analysis code THALES, and transient fuel performance analysis code FROST are being coupled using message passing interface(MPI). For the first step, THALES and FROST are coupled and tested

  16. Stochastic Optimization of Wind Turbine Power Factor Using Stochastic Model of Wind Power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan; Siano, Pierluigi; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a stochastic optimization algorithm that aims to minimize the expectation of the system power losses by controlling wind turbine (WT) power factors. This objective of the optimization is subject to the probability constraints of bus voltage and line current requirements....... The optimization algorithm utilizes the stochastic models of wind power generation (WPG) and load demand to take into account their stochastic variation. The stochastic model of WPG is developed on the basis of a limited autoregressive integrated moving average (LARIMA) model by introducing a crosscorrelation...... structure to the LARIMA model. The proposed stochastic optimization is carried out on a 69-bus distribution system. Simulation results confirm that, under various combinations of WPG and load demand, the system power losses are considerably reduced with the optimal setting of WT power factor as compared...

  17. Polygons in Martian Frost

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-01-01

    MGS MOC Release No. MOC2-428, 21 July 2003This June 2003 Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) image shows a polygonal pattern developed in seasonal carbon dioxide frost in the martian southern hemisphere. The frost accumulated during the recent southern winter; it is now spring, and the carbon dioxide frost is subliming away. This image is located near 80.4oS, 200.2oW; it is illuminated by sunlight from the upper left, and covers an area 3 km (1.9 mi) across.

  18. Frost formation under different gaseous atmospheres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukada, Satoshi; Tsuru, Hisanori; Nishikawa, Masabumi

    1995-01-01

    Rates of water frost growth in a vessel with a cooled horizontal plate were experimentally determined under reduced pressure atmospheres of hydrogen, helium, methane and nitrogen. The mass deposited on the cooled surface under each of the atmospheres was almost in proportion to time. The Sherwood number under the condition of no mist formation, Sh 0 , in the atmospheres of methane and nitrogen was in good agreement with Catton's equation for natural convection between horizontal parallel plates. Sh 0 in a hydrogen atmosphere was unity, which corresponds to control by molecular diffusion in the stagnant gas. The tendency of the decrease in Sh due to mist formation could be evaluated well by multiplying Sh 0 by a factor ζ CSM . The ζ CSM value was calculated based on the critical supersaturation model as a function of the two interface temperatures and the total pressure. Frost growth rates under each atmosphere were in proportion to [(T S1 -T W1 )t/(1+1/A S1 )] 0.5 . The proportional constant for hydrogen was greater than that for any other tested gas. Agreement and disagreement of the frost effective thermal conductivity with previous models were discussed. (author)

  19. Stochastic diffusion models for substitutable technological innovations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, L.; Hu, B.; Yu, X.

    2004-01-01

    Based on the analysis of firms' stochastic adoption behaviour, this paper first points out the necessity to build more practical stochastic models. And then, stochastic evolutionary models are built for substitutable innovation diffusion system. Finally, through the computer simulation of the

  20. Frost on Mars Rover Opportunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    Frost can form on surfaces if enough water is present and the temperature is sufficiently low. On each of NASA's Mars Exploration Rovers, the calibration target for the panoramic camera provides a good place to look for such events. A thin frost was observed by Opportunity's panoramic camera on the rover's 257th sol (Oct. 13, 2004) 11 minutes after sunrise (left image). The presence of the frost is most clearly seen on the post in the center of the target, particularly when compared with the unsegmented outer ring of the target, which is white. The post is normally black. For comparison, note the difference in appearance in the image on the right, taken about three hours later, after the frost had dissipated. Frost has not been observed at Spirit, where the amount of atmospheric water vapor is observed to be appreciably lower. Both images were taken through a filter centered at a wavelength of 440 nanometers (blue).

  1. Sequential neural models with stochastic layers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fraccaro, Marco; Sønderby, Søren Kaae; Paquet, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    How can we efficiently propagate uncertainty in a latent state representation with recurrent neural networks? This paper introduces stochastic recurrent neural networks which glue a deterministic recurrent neural network and a state space model together to form a stochastic and sequential neural...... generative model. The clear separation of deterministic and stochastic layers allows a structured variational inference network to track the factorization of the model's posterior distribution. By retaining both the nonlinear recursive structure of a recurrent neural network and averaging over...

  2. Numerical Simulation of the Heston Model under Stochastic Correlation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Teng

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Stochastic correlation models have become increasingly important in financial markets. In order to be able to price vanilla options in stochastic volatility and correlation models, in this work, we study the extension of the Heston model by imposing stochastic correlations driven by a stochastic differential equation. We discuss the efficient algorithms for the extended Heston model by incorporating stochastic correlations. Our numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithms can efficiently provide highly accurate results for the extended Heston by including stochastic correlations. By investigating the effect of stochastic correlations on the implied volatility, we find that the performance of the Heston model can be proved by including stochastic correlations.

  3. Numerical heat transfer model for frost protection of citrus fruits by water from a spraying system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Issa Roy J.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A simplified model is developed to simulate the conditions associated with the protection of fruits from frost damage using water from a spraying system. The model simulates the movement of the solidifying water front on a single fruit, and based on that determines the spray frequency needed for a water film to continuously surround the ice-coated fruit to prevent the fruit temperature from dropping below 0ºC. Simulations are presented for the frost protection of sweet oranges (citrus sinensis. The effect of environmental conditions such as air temperature, air velocity, surface radiation and water film evaporation on the development of the ice layer encasing is considered. Simulations show the effect the encasing ice sheet thickness has on the fruit temperature if water from a spraying system is turned off permanently. Experimental tests are also conducted to determine the change in the thermal properties of citrus sinensis for operating temperatures that range from above freezing to sub-freezing. The results of the experimental tests and the numerical simulations shall lead to a better understanding of fruit protection from frost damage by the application of water from a spraying system.

  4. Frost at the Viking Lander 2 Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-01-01

    Photo from Viking Lander 2 shows late-winter frost on the ground on Mars around the lander. The view is southeast over the top of Lander 2, and shows patches of frost around dark rocks. The surface is reddish-brown; the dark rocks vary in size from 10 centimeters (four inches) to 76 centimeters (30 inches) in diameter. This picture was obtained Sept. 25, 1977. The frost deposits were detected for the first time 12 Martian days (sols) earlier in a black-and-white image. Color differences between the white frost and the reddish soil confirm that we are observing frost. The Lander Imaging Team is trying to determine if frost deposits routinely form due to cold night temperatures, then disappear during the warmer daytime. Preliminary analysis, however, indicates the frost was on the ground for some time and is disappearing over many days. That suggests to scientists that the frost is not frozen carbon dioxide (dry ice) but is more likely a carbon dioxide clathrate (six parts water to one part carbon dioxide). Detailed studies of the frost formation and disappearance, in conjunction with temperature measurements from the lander's meteorology experiment, should be able to confirm or deny that hypothesis, scientists say.

  5. Frosting characteristics and heating performance of a direct-expansion solar-assisted heat pump for space heating under frosting conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Wenzhu; Ji, Jie; Xu, Ning; Li, Guiqiang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Frosting and heating performance of DX-SAHP under frosting conditions is investigated. • The conditions when DX-SAHP frosts are studied. • The frosting process is observed during 360 min of operating. • The effect of ambient temperature, relative humidity and solar irradiation is analyzed. - Abstract: Direct expansion solar-assisted heat pump system (DX-SAHP) is promising in energy saving applications, but the performance of DX-SAHP under frosting conditions is rarely reported in the published literatures. In this paper, a DX-SAHP system with bare solar collectors for space heating is designed and experimentally investigated in the enthalpy difference lab with a solar simulator. The system is tested under a range of frosting conditions, with the ambient temperatures from 7 °C to −3 °C, the relative humidities of 50%, 70% and 90% and the solar irradiances of 0 W/m"2, 100 W/m"2, 200 W/m"2 and 300 W/m"2. The conditions when the DX-SAHP system frosts are studied. Results show that solar irradiance as low as 100 W/m"2 can totally prevent frosting when the ambient temperature is above −3 °C and the relative humidity is 70%. Besides, the frosting process is observed to be slower than that of fin-and-tube heat exchangers. The evaporator is not seriously frosted and the system performance is not significantly influenced after 360 min of continuous operating. Moreover the effects of ambient parameters, including the ambient temperature and the relative humidity, especially solar irradiation, on the system performance are studied and analyzed. Solar irradiation can effectively prevent or retard frosting, and also improve the heating performance of the DX-SAHP system. The DX-SAHP system is proved to be applicable under frosting conditions.

  6. Biodiversity of Van Reeds, Eastern Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özdemir Adızel

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it is aimed to determine the vertebrate fauna and flora species diversity of Van Reeds. For this purpose, studies were conducted between 2014 and 2017 and 1 fish, 3 frog, 6 reptilian, 185 bird, and 5 mammal species, 200 fauna species and 79 flora species in total, were determined in the study area. Van Reeds is an important breeding, feeding, and wintering feature especially for birds. Reeds, which has various biodiversity, is exposed to intense pressure and destruction. The main threats in the study area are construction, filling, hunting, drainage, and pollution.

  7. Transport properties of stochastic Lorentz models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beijeren, H. van

    Diffusion processes are considered for one-dimensional stochastic Lorentz models, consisting of randomly distributed fixed scatterers and one moving light particle. In waiting time Lorentz models the light particle makes instantaneous jumps between scatterers after a stochastically distributed

  8. Modeling and analysis of stochastic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Kulkarni, Vidyadhar G

    2011-01-01

    Based on the author's more than 25 years of teaching experience, Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Systems, Second Edition covers the most important classes of stochastic processes used in the modeling of diverse systems, from supply chains and inventory systems to genetics and biological systems. For each class of stochastic process, the text includes its definition, characterization, applications, transient and limiting behavior, first passage times, and cost/reward models. Along with reorganizing the material, this edition revises and adds new exercises and examples. New to the second edi

  9. Ecology and physiology of reed. A literature study for evaluation of reed as an energy source

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerndahl, G.; Egneus, H.

    1980-04-01

    The potentials of reed as an energy source are evaluated. The following subjects are discussed: The structure and life-cycle of reed; Primary production and photosynthesis; important environmental factors for the production; Genetic variation; Competition, succession and parasitism; Human influence like cultivation, harvesting a.o. An extensive list of referencer is given.

  10. On the need for data for the verification of service life models for frost damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geiker, Mette Rica; Engelund, Sven

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to draw the attention to the need for the verification of service life models for frost attack on concrete and the collection of relevant data. To illustrate the type of data needed the paper presents models for internal freeze/thaw damage (internal cracking including...

  11. Quality indicators for woodwind reed material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glave, Stefan; Pallon, Jan; Bornman, Chris; Bjoern, Lars Olof; Wallen, Rita; Raastam, Jacob; Kristiansson, Per; Elfman, Mikael; Malmqvist, Klas

    1999-01-01

    For the generation of sound, some woodwind musical instruments, e.g. oboe, bassoon, clarinet and saxophone, are provided with mouthpieces made from reeds. These reeds are the culms of Arundo donax, a tall, cane-like perennial grass. A general problem is that the material is of varying quality, yet externally differences cannot be observed. Hence, large proportions of the prepared reeds are unusable. One hypothesis is that the changes in quality are correlated with differences in the chemical and anatomical structure of the tissue. Therefore, a comparison of superior and inferior mouthpieces, used by professional musicians, was undertaken to determinate potential indicators of quality. Nuclear microprobe analysis of reeds was carried out and complemented by scanning electron and light microscopy. The elemental levels of Si, P, S, Cl, K and Ca were compared between good and poor mouthpieces using appropriate statistical tests. No statistically significant differences could be identified. Microscopical observations showed that partial occlusion of vessels by tylose formation was associated with material deemed unusable

  12. Modelling Cow Behaviour Using Stochastic Automata

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Ragnar Ingi

    This report covers an initial study on the modelling of cow behaviour using stochastic automata with the aim of detecting lameness. Lameness in cows is a serious problem that needs to be dealt with because it results in less profitable production units and in reduced quality of life...... for the affected livestock. By featuring training data consisting of measurements of cow activity, three different models are obtained, namely an autonomous stochastic automaton, a stochastic automaton with coinciding state and output and an autonomous stochastic automaton with coinciding state and output, all...... of which describe the cows' activity in the two regarded behavioural scenarios, non-lame and lame. Using the experimental measurement data the different behavioural relations for the two regarded behavioural scenarios are assessed. The three models comprise activity within last hour, activity within last...

  13. The vulnerability of silver fir populations to damage from late frosts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klisz Marcin

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to determine the vulnerability of selected silver fir populations to damage from late frost in the climatic conditions of south-eastern Poland. To determine the vulnerability of apical and lateral shoots to damage caused by late frosts, we observed four test plots in 2009 and 2014, each containing progenies of selected seed stands. Our statistical analyses were based on a model incorporating the following variables: site, year, type of frost damage, population as well as the possible interaction between these variables. Significant differences between the populations were found in terms of their sensitivity to damage from low temperature occurring during the growth period. Furthermore, we indirectly demonstrated differences in the severity of late frost on the experimental plots, as well as the intensity and variability of late frost shoot damage. Based on these results, we divided the studied populations into two groups of low (EF, KRA1 and NAR and high (LES2 and BAL2 sensitivity to late frost damage.

  14. Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borovkova, Svetlana; Schmeck, Maren Diane

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process' volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand. - Highlights: • We develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. • We incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices, such as seasonal volatility and spikes into the model. • We use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change • We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. • We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths.

  15. Stochastic volatility and stochastic leverage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veraart, Almut; Veraart, Luitgard A. M.

    This paper proposes the new concept of stochastic leverage in stochastic volatility models. Stochastic leverage refers to a stochastic process which replaces the classical constant correlation parameter between the asset return and the stochastic volatility process. We provide a systematic...... treatment of stochastic leverage and propose to model the stochastic leverage effect explicitly, e.g. by means of a linear transformation of a Jacobi process. Such models are both analytically tractable and allow for a direct economic interpretation. In particular, we propose two new stochastic volatility...... models which allow for a stochastic leverage effect: the generalised Heston model and the generalised Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard model. We investigate the impact of a stochastic leverage effect in the risk neutral world by focusing on implied volatilities generated by option prices derived from our new...

  16. Frost Monitoring and Forecasting Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data and a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts for Eastern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabuchanga, Eric; Flores, Africa; Malaso, Susan; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Shaka, Ayub; Limaye, Ashutosh

    2014-01-01

    Frost is a major challenge across Eastern Africa, severely impacting agricultural farms. Frost damages have wide ranging economic implications on tea and coffee farms, which represent a major economic sector. Early monitoring and forecasting will enable farmers to take preventive actions to minimize the losses. Although clearly important, timely information on when to protect crops from freezing is relatively limited. MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, derived from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and 72-hr weather forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Service's operational Weather Research Forecast model are enabling the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to provide timely information to farmers in the region. This presentation will highlight an ongoing collaboration among the Kenya Meteorological Service, RCMRD, and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to identify frost events and provide farmers with potential frost forecasts in Eastern Africa.

  17. Stochastic models of cell motility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gradinaru, Cristian

    2012-01-01

    Cell motility and migration are central to the development and maintenance of multicellular organisms, and errors during this process can lead to major diseases. Consequently, the mechanisms and phenomenology of cell motility are currently under intense study. In recent years, a new...... interdisciplinary field focusing on the study of biological processes at the nanoscale level, with a range of technological applications in medicine and biological research, has emerged. The work presented in this thesis is at the interface of cell biology, image processing, and stochastic modeling. The stochastic...... models introduced here are based on persistent random motion, which I apply to real-life studies of cell motility on flat and nanostructured surfaces. These models aim to predict the time-dependent position of cell centroids in a stochastic manner, and conversely determine directly from experimental...

  18. Stochastic Modelling of Hydrologic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa

    2007-01-01

    In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains...... an introduction and an overview of the papers published. Then an introduction to basic concepts in hydrology along with a description of hydrological data is given. Finally an introduction to stochastic modelling is given. The second part contains the research papers. In the research papers the stochastic methods...... are described, as at the time of publication these methods represent new contribution to hydrology. The second part also contains additional description of software used and a brief introduction to stiff systems. The system in one of the papers is stiff....

  19. Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J

    2017-05-23

    Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

  20. Stochasticity and determinism in models of hematopoiesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimmel, Marek

    2014-01-01

    This chapter represents a novel view of modeling in hematopoiesis, synthesizing both deterministic and stochastic approaches. Whereas the stochastic models work in situations where chance dominates, for example when the number of cells is small, or under random mutations, the deterministic models are more important for large-scale, normal hematopoiesis. New types of models are on the horizon. These models attempt to account for distributed environments such as hematopoietic niches and their impact on dynamics. Mixed effects of such structures and chance events are largely unknown and constitute both a challenge and promise for modeling. Our discussion is presented under the separate headings of deterministic and stochastic modeling; however, the connections between both are frequently mentioned. Four case studies are included to elucidate important examples. We also include a primer of deterministic and stochastic dynamics for the reader's use.

  1. Rotation Impact of Reed Switch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Yun Bum; Lee, Jae Seon; Kim, Jong Wook; Han, Eun Sil; Park, Hee June

    2016-01-01

    A CRDM (Control Rod Drive Mechanism) is an electromagnetic device which drives a control rod assembly linearly to regulate the reactivity of a nuclear core. A RPIS (Rod Position Indication System) is used as a position indicator of a control rod assembly for a CRDM of a nuclear reactor, SMART. A highly accurate RPIS for SMART is required because the reactivity of a nuclear core for a small modular reactor is more sensitive than the commercial ones. In this study, the effect of positioning direction of the reeds in a reed switch for the CRDM RPIS has been studied using the electromagnetic FE analysis. It is found that the positioning direction of the reeds slightly but not significantly affects the formation of attraction. Analysis results will be used as the basis on estimated accuracy of full RPIS system.

  2. Rotation Impact of Reed Switch

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Yun Bum; Lee, Jae Seon; Kim, Jong Wook [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Han, Eun Sil [Taesung S and E, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Hee June [Woojin Inc., Hwaseong (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    A CRDM (Control Rod Drive Mechanism) is an electromagnetic device which drives a control rod assembly linearly to regulate the reactivity of a nuclear core. A RPIS (Rod Position Indication System) is used as a position indicator of a control rod assembly for a CRDM of a nuclear reactor, SMART. A highly accurate RPIS for SMART is required because the reactivity of a nuclear core for a small modular reactor is more sensitive than the commercial ones. In this study, the effect of positioning direction of the reeds in a reed switch for the CRDM RPIS has been studied using the electromagnetic FE analysis. It is found that the positioning direction of the reeds slightly but not significantly affects the formation of attraction. Analysis results will be used as the basis on estimated accuracy of full RPIS system.

  3. Stochastic Models of Polymer Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Distribution Unlimited Final Report: Stochastic Models of Polymer Systems The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of the...ADDRESS. Princeton University PO Box 0036 87 Prospect Avenue - 2nd floor Princeton, NJ 08544 -2020 14-Mar-2014 ABSTRACT Number of Papers published in...peer-reviewed journals: Number of Papers published in non peer-reviewed journals: Final Report: Stochastic Models of Polymer Systems Report Title

  4. The Physics of Frost Heave and Ice-Lens Growth

    KAUST Repository

    Peppin, Stephen S. L.

    2013-01-01

    The principle cause of frost heave is the formation of segregated ice-ice lenses-in freezing soil columns. Despite much experimental and theoretical work, there remain many questions about the fundamental process by which this occurs. Frost-heave models fall into two main classes: capillary and frozen-fringe models. Which model is appropriate depends on whether there is a frozen fringe; these are difficult to observe but some experimental evidence does exist. Recent advances have revitalized the capillary model, such as the engulfment model and the concept of geometrical supercooling. Key experimental and theoretical challenges remain to be resolved. © Soil Science Society of America 5585 Guilford Rd., Madison, WI 53711 USA. All rights reserved.

  5. CAM Stochastic Volatility Model for Option Pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanwan Huang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The coupled additive and multiplicative (CAM noises model is a stochastic volatility model for derivative pricing. Unlike the other stochastic volatility models in the literature, the CAM model uses two Brownian motions, one multiplicative and one additive, to model the volatility process. We provide empirical evidence that suggests a nontrivial relationship between the kurtosis and skewness of asset prices and that the CAM model is able to capture this relationship, whereas the traditional stochastic volatility models cannot. We introduce a control variate method and Monte Carlo estimators for some of the sensitivities (Greeks of the model. We also derive an approximation for the characteristic function of the model.

  6. How endangered is sexual reproduction of high-mountain plants by summer frosts? Frost resistance, frequency of frost events and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Ladinig, Ursula; Hacker, J?rgen; Neuner, Gilbert; Wagner, Johanna

    2013-01-01

    In temperate-zone mountains, summer frosts usually occur during unpredictable cold spells with snow-falls. Earlier studies have shown that vegetative aboveground organs of most high-mountain plants tolerate extracellular ice in the active state. However, little is known about the impact of frost on reproductive development and reproductive success. In common plant species from the European Alps (Cerastium uniflorum, Loiseleuria procumbens, Ranunculus glacialis, Rhododendron ferrugineum, Saxif...

  7. Modeling stochasticity and robustness in gene regulatory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, Abhishek; Mohanram, Kartik; Di Cara, Alessandro; De Micheli, Giovanni; Xenarios, Ioannis

    2009-06-15

    Understanding gene regulation in biological processes and modeling the robustness of underlying regulatory networks is an important problem that is currently being addressed by computational systems biologists. Lately, there has been a renewed interest in Boolean modeling techniques for gene regulatory networks (GRNs). However, due to their deterministic nature, it is often difficult to identify whether these modeling approaches are robust to the addition of stochastic noise that is widespread in gene regulatory processes. Stochasticity in Boolean models of GRNs has been addressed relatively sparingly in the past, mainly by flipping the expression of genes between different expression levels with a predefined probability. This stochasticity in nodes (SIN) model leads to over representation of noise in GRNs and hence non-correspondence with biological observations. In this article, we introduce the stochasticity in functions (SIF) model for simulating stochasticity in Boolean models of GRNs. By providing biological motivation behind the use of the SIF model and applying it to the T-helper and T-cell activation networks, we show that the SIF model provides more biologically robust results than the existing SIN model of stochasticity in GRNs. Algorithms are made available under our Boolean modeling toolbox, GenYsis. The software binaries can be downloaded from http://si2.epfl.ch/ approximately garg/genysis.html.

  8. Frost Forecasting for Fruitgrowers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.

    1983-01-01

    Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.

  9. Frost on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    This image shows bluish-white frost seen on the Martian surface near NASA's Phoenix Mars Lander. The image was taken by the lander's Surface Stereo Imager on the 131st Martian day, or sol, of the mission (Oct. 7, 2008). Frost is expected to continue to appear in images as fall, then winter approach Mars' northern plains. The Phoenix Mission is led by the University of Arizona, Tucson, on behalf of NASA. Project management of the mission is by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. Spacecraft development is by Lockheed Martin Space Systems, Denver.

  10. Reed as a gasification fuel: a comparison with woody fuels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Link

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Reed and coniferous wood can be used for energy production via thermochemical conversion, for instance by gasification. The rate-determining step of the gasification process is the reaction between the char and the gaseous environment in the gasifier, whose rate depends on variables such as pressure, temperature, particle size, mineral matter content, porosity, etc. It is known that reactivity can be improved by increasing the temperature, but on the other hand the temperature achieved in the reactor is limited due to the ash fusion characteristics. Usually, the availability of reed as a fuel is locally modest and, therefore, it must be blended with other fuels such as wood. Blending of fuels brings together several problems relating to ash behaviour, i.e. ash fusion issues. Because there is no correlation between the ash fusion characteristics of biomass blends and their individual components, it is essential to carry out prior laboratory-scale ash fusion tests on the blends. This study compares the reactivity of reed and coniferous wood, and the ash fusion characteristics of blends of reed and coniferous wood ashes. When compared with Douglas fir and reed chars, pine pellets have the highest reactivity. Reed char exhibits the lowest reactivity and, therefore, it is advantageous to gasify reed alone at higher gasification temperatures because the ash fusion temperatures of reed are higher than those of woody fuels. The ash produced by reed and wood blends can melt at lower temperatures than ash from both reed and wood gasified separately. Due to this circumstance the gasification temperature should be chosen carefully when gasification of blends is carried out.

  11. Stochastic models in reliability and maintenance

    CERN Document Server

    2002-01-01

    Our daily lives can be maintained by the high-technology systems. Computer systems are typical examples of such systems. We can enjoy our modern lives by using many computer systems. Much more importantly, we have to maintain such systems without failure, but cannot predict when such systems will fail and how to fix such systems without delay. A stochastic process is a set of outcomes of a random experiment indexed by time, and is one of the key tools needed to analyze the future behavior quantitatively. Reliability and maintainability technologies are of great interest and importance to the maintenance of such systems. Many mathematical models have been and will be proposed to describe reliability and maintainability systems by using the stochastic processes. The theme of this book is "Stochastic Models in Reliability and Main­ tainability. " This book consists of 12 chapters on the theme above from the different viewpoints of stochastic modeling. Chapter 1 is devoted to "Renewal Processes," under which cla...

  12. The multivariate supOU stochastic volatility model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Stelzer, Robert

    Using positive semidefinite supOU (superposition of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type) processes to describe the volatility, we introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model for financial data which is capable of modelling long range dependence effects. The finiteness of moments and the second order...... structure of the volatility, the log returns, as well as their "squares" are discussed in detail. Moreover, we give several examples in which long memory effects occur and study how the model as well as the simple Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type stochastic volatility model behave under linear transformations....... In particular, the models are shown to be preserved under invertible linear transformations. Finally, we discuss how (sup)OU stochastic volatility models can be combined with a factor modelling approach....

  13. A Fractionally Integrated Wishart Stochastic Volatility Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThere has recently been growing interest in modeling and estimating alternative continuous time multivariate stochastic volatility models. We propose a continuous time fractionally integrated Wishart stochastic volatility (FIWSV) process. We derive the conditional Laplace transform of

  14. A stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Boqiang; Shan, Meijing; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the basic features of an SIS type infectious disease model with varying population size and vaccinations in presence of environment noise. By applying the Markov semigroup theory, we propose a stochastic reproduction number R0s which can be seen as a threshold parameter to utilize in identifying the stochastic extinction and persistence: If R0s disease-free absorbing set for the stochastic epidemic model, which implies that disease dies out with probability one; while if R0s > 1, under some mild extra conditions, the SDE model has an endemic stationary distribution which results in the stochastic persistence of the infectious disease. The most interesting finding is that large environmental noise can suppress the outbreak of the disease.

  15. Reed Warbler Hosts Fine-Tune their Defenses to Track Three Decades of Cuckoo Decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorogood, Rose; Davies, Nicholas B

    2013-01-01

    Interactions between avian hosts and brood parasites can provide a model for how animals adapt to a changing world. Reed warbler (Acrocephalus scirpaceus) hosts employ costly defenses to combat parasitism by common cuckoos (Cuculus canorus). During the past three decades cuckoos have declined markedly across England, reducing parasitism at our study site (Wicken Fen) from 24% of reed warbler nests in 1985 to 1% in 2012. Here we show with experiments that host mobbing and egg rejection defenses have tracked this decline in local parasitism risk: the proportion of reed warbler pairs mobbing adult cuckoos (assessed by responses to cuckoo mounts and models) has declined from 90% to 38%, and the proportion rejecting nonmimetic cuckoo eggs (assessed by responses to model eggs) has declined from 61% to 11%. This is despite no change in response to other nest enemies or mimetic model eggs. Individual variation in both defenses is predicted by parasitism risk during the host’s egg-laying period. Furthermore, the response of our study population to temporal variation in parasitism risk can also explain spatial variation in egg rejection behavior in other populations across Europe. We suggest that spatial and temporal variation in parasitism risk has led to the evolution of plasticity in reed warbler defenses. PMID:24299407

  16. Estimating winter survival of winter wheat by simulations of plant frost tolerance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergjord Olsen, A.K.; Persson, T.; Wit, de A.; Nkurunziza, L.; Sindhøj, E.; Eckersten, H.

    2018-01-01

    Based on soil temperature, snow depth and the grown cultivar's maximum attainable level of frost tolerance (LT50c), the FROSTOL model simulates development of frost tolerance (LT50) and winter damage, thereby enabling risk calculations for winter wheat survival. To explore the accuracy of this

  17. Effects of environmental factors and management practices on microclimate, winter physiology, and frost resistance in trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charrier, Guillaume; Ngao, Jérôme; Saudreau, Marc; Améglio, Thierry

    2015-01-01

    Freezing stress is one of the most important limiting factors determining the ecological distribution and production of tree species. Assessment of frost risk is, therefore, critical for forestry, fruit production, and horticulture. Frost risk is substantial when hazard (i.e., exposure to damaging freezing temperatures) intersects with vulnerability (i.e., frost sensitivity). Based on a large number of studies on frost resistance and frost occurrence, we highlight the complex interactive roles of environmental conditions, carbohydrates, and water status in frost risk development. To supersede the classical empirical relations used to model frost hardiness, we propose an integrated ecophysiologically-based framework of frost risk assessment. This framework details the individual or interactive roles of these factors, and how they are distributed in time and space at the individual-tree level (within-crown and across organs). Based on this general framework, we are able to highlight factors by which different environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, light, flood, and drought), and management practices (pruning, thinning, girdling, sheltering, water aspersion, irrigation, and fertilization) influence frost sensitivity and frost exposure of trees.

  18. Population stochastic modelling (PSM)--an R package for mixed-effects models based on stochastic differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klim, Søren; Mortensen, Stig Bousgaard; Kristensen, Niels Rode; Overgaard, Rune Viig; Madsen, Henrik

    2009-06-01

    The extension from ordinary to stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling is an emerging field and has been motivated in a number of articles [N.R. Kristensen, H. Madsen, S.H. Ingwersen, Using stochastic differential equations for PK/PD model development, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 109-141; C.W. Tornøe, R.V. Overgaard, H. Agersø, H.A. Nielsen, H. Madsen, E.N. Jonsson, Stochastic differential equations in NONMEM: implementation, application, and comparison with ordinary differential equations, Pharm. Res. 22 (August(8)) (2005) 1247-1258; R.V. Overgaard, N. Jonsson, C.W. Tornøe, H. Madsen, Non-linear mixed-effects models with stochastic differential equations: implementation of an estimation algorithm, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 85-107; U. Picchini, S. Ditlevsen, A. De Gaetano, Maximum likelihood estimation of a time-inhomogeneous stochastic differential model of glucose dynamics, Math. Med. Biol. 25 (June(2)) (2008) 141-155]. PK/PD models are traditionally based ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with an observation link that incorporates noise. This state-space formulation only allows for observation noise and not for system noise. Extending to SDEs allows for a Wiener noise component in the system equations. This additional noise component enables handling of autocorrelated residuals originating from natural variation or systematic model error. Autocorrelated residuals are often partly ignored in PK/PD modelling although violating the hypothesis for many standard statistical tests. This article presents a package for the statistical program R that is able to handle SDEs in a mixed-effects setting. The estimation method implemented is the FOCE(1) approximation to the population likelihood which is generated from the individual likelihoods that are approximated using the Extended Kalman Filter's one-step predictions.

  19. Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.

    2000-01-01

    Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...

  20. Algebraic modeling and thermodynamic design of fan-supplied tube-fin evaporators running under frosting conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribeiro, Rafael S.; Hermes, Christian J.L.

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the method of entropy generation minimization (i.e., design aimed at facilitating both heat, mass and fluid flows) is used to assess the evaporator design (aspect ratio and fin density) considering the thermodynamic losses due to heat and mass transfer, and viscous flow processes. A fully algebraic model was put forward to simulate the thermal-hydraulic behavior of tube-fin evaporator coils running under frosting conditions. The model predictions were validated against experimental data, showing a good agreement between calculated and measured counterparts. The optimization exercise has pointed out that high aspect ratio heat exchanger designs lead to lower entropy generation in cases of fixed cooling capacity and air flow rate constrained by the characteristic curve of the fan. - Highlights: • An algebraic model for frost accumulation on tube-fin heat exchangers was advanced. • Model predictions for cooling capacity and air flow rate were compared with experimental data, with errors within ±5% band. • Minimum entropy generation criterion was used to optimize the evaporator geometry. • Thermodynamic analysis led to slender designs for fixed cooling capacity and fan characteristics

  1. Stochastic linear programming models, theory, and computation

    CERN Document Server

    Kall, Peter

    2011-01-01

    This new edition of Stochastic Linear Programming: Models, Theory and Computation has been brought completely up to date, either dealing with or at least referring to new material on models and methods, including DEA with stochastic outputs modeled via constraints on special risk functions (generalizing chance constraints, ICC’s and CVaR constraints), material on Sharpe-ratio, and Asset Liability Management models involving CVaR in a multi-stage setup. To facilitate use as a text, exercises are included throughout the book, and web access is provided to a student version of the authors’ SLP-IOR software. Additionally, the authors have updated the Guide to Available Software, and they have included newer algorithms and modeling systems for SLP. The book is thus suitable as a text for advanced courses in stochastic optimization, and as a reference to the field. From Reviews of the First Edition: "The book presents a comprehensive study of stochastic linear optimization problems and their applications. … T...

  2. Stochastic Wake Modelling Based on POD Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Bastine

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In this work, large eddy simulation data is analysed to investigate a new stochastic modeling approach for the wake of a wind turbine. The data is generated by the large eddy simulation (LES model PALM combined with an actuator disk with rotation representing the turbine. After applying a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD, three different stochastic models for the weighting coefficients of the POD modes are deduced resulting in three different wake models. Their performance is investigated mainly on the basis of aeroelastic simulations of a wind turbine in the wake. Three different load cases and their statistical characteristics are compared for the original LES, truncated PODs and the stochastic wake models including different numbers of POD modes. It is shown that approximately six POD modes are enough to capture the load dynamics on large temporal scales. Modeling the weighting coefficients as independent stochastic processes leads to similar load characteristics as in the case of the truncated POD. To complete this simplified wake description, we show evidence that the small-scale dynamics can be captured by adding to our model a homogeneous turbulent field. In this way, we present a procedure to derive stochastic wake models from costly computational fluid dynamics (CFD calculations or elaborated experimental investigations. These numerically efficient models provide the added value of possible long-term studies. Depending on the aspects of interest, different minimalized models may be obtained.

  3. Conducting field trials for frost tolerance breeding in cereals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cattivelli, Luigi

    2014-01-01

    Cereal species can be damaged by frost either during winter or at flowering stage. Frost tolerance per se is only a part of the mechanisms that allow the plants to survive during winter; winterhardiness also considers other biotic or physical stresses that challenge the plants during the winter season limiting their survival rate. While frost tolerance can also be tested in controlled environments, winterhardiness can be determined only with field evaluations. Post-heading frost damage occurs from radiation frost events in spring during the reproductive stages. A reliable evaluation of winterhardiness or of post-heading frost damage should be carried out with field trials replicated across years and locations to overcome the irregular occurrence of natural conditions which satisfactorily differentiate genotypes. The evaluation of post-heading frost damage requires a specific attention to plant phenology. The extent of frost damage is usually determined with a visual score at the end of the winter.

  4. Stochastic stability and bifurcation in a macroeconomic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Wei; Xu Wei; Zhao Junfeng; Jin Yanfei

    2007-01-01

    On the basis of the work of Goodwin and Puu, a new business cycle model subject to a stochastically parametric excitation is derived in this paper. At first, we reduce the model to a one-dimensional diffusion process by applying the stochastic averaging method of quasi-nonintegrable Hamiltonian system. Secondly, we utilize the methods of Lyapunov exponent and boundary classification associated with diffusion process respectively to analyze the stochastic stability of the trivial solution of system. The numerical results obtained illustrate that the trivial solution of system must be globally stable if it is locally stable in the state space. Thirdly, we explore the stochastic Hopf bifurcation of the business cycle model according to the qualitative changes in stationary probability density of system response. It is concluded that the stochastic Hopf bifurcation occurs at two critical parametric values. Finally, some explanations are given in a simply way on the potential applications of stochastic stability and bifurcation analysis

  5. Population stochastic modelling (PSM)-An R package for mixed-effects models based on stochastic differential equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klim, Søren; Mortensen, Stig Bousgaard; Kristensen, Niels Rode

    2009-01-01

    are often partly ignored in PK/PD modelling although violating the hypothesis for many standard statistical tests. This article presents a package for the statistical program R that is able to handle SDEs in a mixed-effects setting. The estimation method implemented is the FOCE1 approximation......The extension from ordinary to stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling is an emerging field and has been motivated in a number of articles [N.R. Kristensen, H. Madsen, S.H. Ingwersen, Using stochastic differential equations for PK/PD model...... development, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(l)) (2005) 109-141; C.W. Tornoe, R.V Overgaard, H. Agerso, H.A. Nielsen, H. Madsen, E.N. Jonsson, Stochastic differential equations in NONMEM: implementation, application, and comparison with ordinary differential equations, Pharm. Res. 22 (August(8...

  6. Pacemaker reed switch behavior in 0.5, 1.5, and 3.0 Tesla magnetic resonance imaging units: are reed switches always closed in strong magnetic fields?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luechinger, Roger; Duru, Firat; Zeijlemaker, Volkert A; Scheidegger, Markus B; Boesiger, Peter; Candinas, Reto

    2002-10-01

    MRI is established as an important diagnostic tool in medicine. However, the presence of a cardiac pacemaker is usually regarded as a contraindication for MRI due to safety reasons. The aim of this study was to investigate the state of a pacemaker reed switch in different orientations and positions in the main magnetic field of 0.5-, 1.5-, and 3.0-T MRI scanners. Reed switches used in current pacemakers and ICDs were tested in 0.5-, 1.5-, and 3.0-T MRI scanners. The closure of isolated reed switches was evaluated for different orientations and positions relative to the main magnetic field. The field strengths to close and open the reed switch and the orientation dependency of the closed state inside the main magnetic field were investigated. The measurements were repeated using two intact pacemakers to evaluate the potential influence of the other magnetic components, like the battery. If the reed switches were oriented parallel to the magnetic fields, they closed at 1.0 +/- 0.2 mT and opened at 0.7 +/- 0.2 mT. Two different reed switch behaviors were observed at different magnetic field strengths. In low magnetic fields ( 200 mT), the reed switches opened in 50% of all tested orientations. No difference between the three scanners could be demonstrated. The reed switches showed the same behavior whether they were isolated or an integral part of the pacemakers. The reed switch in a pacemaker or an ICD does not necessarily remain closed in strong magnetic fields at 0.5, 1.5, or 3.0 T and the state of the reed switch may not be predictable with certainty in clinical situations.

  7. Effects of reed cutting on density and breeding success of reed warbler Acrocephalus scirpacaeus and sedge warbler A. schoenobaenus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graveland, J.

    1999-01-01

    The management of reedbeds for birds is often a controversial issue in discussions between conservationists, reed harvesters and managers. At the same time, data on the density and nesting success of birds in cut and uncut reed are scarce. This paper presents the results of a study on the density

  8. Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipton, Alex; Sepp, Artur

    2008-08-01

    We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics.

  9. Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipton, Alex; Sepp, Artur

    2008-01-01

    We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics

  10. Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipton, Alex [Merrill Lynch, Mlfc Main, 2 King Edward Street, London EC1A 1HQ (United Kingdom); Sepp, Artur [Merrill Lynch, 4 World Financial Center, New York, NY 10080 (United States)], E-mail: Alex_Lipton@ml.com, E-mail: Artur_Sepp@ml.com

    2008-08-29

    We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics.

  11. On Localized Vapor Pressure Gradients Governing Condensation and Frost Phenomena.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Saurabh; Boreyko, Jonathan B

    2016-08-23

    Interdroplet vapor pressure gradients are the driving mechanism for several phase-change phenomena such as condensation dry zones, interdroplet ice bridging, dry zones around ice, and frost halos. Despite the fundamental nature of the underlying pressure gradients, the majority of studies on these emerging phenomena have been primarily empirical. Using classical nucleation theory and Becker-Döring embryo formation kinetics, here we calculate the pressure field for all possible modes of condensation and desublimation in order to gain fundamental insight into how pressure gradients govern the behavior of dry zones, condensation frosting, and frost halos. Our findings reveal that in a variety of phase-change systems the thermodynamically favorable mode of nucleation can switch between condensation and desublimation depending upon the temperature and wettability of the surface. The calculated pressure field is used to model the length of a dry zone around liquid or ice droplets over a broad parameter space. The long-standing question of whether the vapor pressure at the interface of growing frost is saturated or supersaturated is resolved by considering the kinetics of interdroplet ice bridging. Finally, on the basis of theoretical calculations, we propose that there exists a new mode of frost halo that is yet to be experimentally observed; a bimodal phase map is developed, demonstrating its dependence on the temperature and wettability of the underlying substrate. We hope that the model and predictions contained herein will assist future efforts to exploit localized vapor pressure gradients for the design of spatially controlled or antifrosting phase-change systems.

  12. Frost heave modelling of buried pipelines using non-linear Fourier finite elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan, R. G.; You, R.

    1998-01-01

    Numerical analysis of the response of a three-dimensional soil-pipeline system in a freezing environment using non-linear Fourier finite elements was described as an illustration of the effectiveness of this technique in analyzing plasticity problems. Plastic deformations occur when buried pipeline is under the action of non-uniform frost heave. The three-dimensional frost heave which develops over time including elastoplastic deformations of the soil and pipe are computed. The soil heave profile obtained in the numerical analysis was consistent with experimental findings for similar configurations. 8 refs., 8 figs

  13. A Gentle Frost: Poet Helen Frost Talks about the Healing Power of Poetry and Her Latest Novel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margolis, Rick

    2006-01-01

    This article presents an interview with poet Helen Frost. Frost talked about how poetry can help at-risk children. She also related the challenges she faced when she wrote her latest book titled "The Braid."

  14. Stochastic Modelling Of The Repairable System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzejczak Karol

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available All reliability models consisting of random time factors form stochastic processes. In this paper we recall the definitions of the most common point processes which are used for modelling of repairable systems. Particularly this paper presents stochastic processes as examples of reliability systems for the support of the maintenance related decisions. We consider the simplest one-unit system with a negligible repair or replacement time, i.e., the unit is operating and is repaired or replaced at failure, where the time required for repair and replacement is negligible. When the repair or replacement is completed, the unit becomes as good as new and resumes operation. The stochastic modelling of recoverable systems constitutes an excellent method of supporting maintenance related decision-making processes and enables their more rational use.

  15. [Infrared spectroscopic analysis of Guilin watermelon frost products].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Dong-lan; Chen, Xiao-kang; Xu, Yong-qun; Sun, Su-qin; Zhou, Qun; Lu, Wen-guan

    2012-08-01

    The objective of the present study is to analyze different products of Guilin watermelon frost by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), second derivative infrared spectroscopy and two-dimensional correlation spectroscopy (2D-IR) under thermal perturbation. The structural information of the samples indicates that samples from the same factory but of different brands had some dissimilarities in the IR spectra, and the type and content of accessories of them were different compared with conventional IR spectra of samples, peaks at 638 and 616 cm(-1) all arise from anhydrous sodium sulfate in watermelon frost spray and watermelon frost capsule; the characteristic absorption peaks of the sucrose, dextrin or other accessories can be seen clearly in the spectra of watermelon frost throat-clearing buccal tablets, watermelon frost throat tablets and watermelon frost lozenge. And the IR spectra of watermelon frost lozenge is very similar to the IR spectra of sucrose, so it can be easily proved that the content of sucrose in watermelon frost lozenge is high. In the 2D-IR correlation spectra, the samples presented the differences in the position, number and relative intensity of autopeaks and correlation peak clusters. Consequently, the macroscopical fingerprint characters of FTIR, second derivative infrared spectra and 2D-IR spectra can not only provide the information about main chemical constituents in medical materials, but also analyze and identify the type and content of accessories in Guilin watermelon frost. In conclusion, the multi-steps IR macro-fingerprint method is rapid, effective, visual and accurate for pharmaceutical research.

  16. Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction–diffusion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spill, Fabian; Guerrero, Pilar; Alarcon, Tomas; Maini, Philip K.; Byrne, Helen

    2015-01-01

    Reaction–diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction–diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model. - Highlights: • A novel hybrid stochastic/deterministic reaction–diffusion simulation method is given. • Can massively speed up stochastic simulations while preserving stochastic effects. • Can handle multiple reacting species. • Can handle moving boundaries

  17. Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction–diffusion models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spill, Fabian, E-mail: fspill@bu.edu [Department of Biomedical Engineering, Boston University, 44 Cummington Street, Boston, MA 02215 (United States); Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Guerrero, Pilar [Department of Mathematics, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom); Alarcon, Tomas [Centre de Recerca Matematica, Campus de Bellaterra, Edifici C, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Departament de Matemàtiques, Universitat Atonòma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Maini, Philip K. [Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG (United Kingdom); Byrne, Helen [Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG (United Kingdom); Computational Biology Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QD (United Kingdom)

    2015-10-15

    Reaction–diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction–diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model. - Highlights: • A novel hybrid stochastic/deterministic reaction–diffusion simulation method is given. • Can massively speed up stochastic simulations while preserving stochastic effects. • Can handle multiple reacting species. • Can handle moving boundaries.

  18. Dedicated Low Latitude Diurnal CO2 Frost Observation Campaigns by the Mars Climate Sounder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piqueux, S.; Kass, D. M.; Kleinboehl, A.; Hayne, P. O.; Heavens, N. G.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Shirley, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    In December 2016 (Ls≈280, MY33) and July 2017 (Ls≈30, MY34), the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) conducted two distinct observation campaigns. The first one aimed at 1) confirming the presence of low latitude diurnal CO2 frost on Mars, and 2) refining the estimated mass of carbon dioxide condensed at the surface, whereas the second campaign was designed to 3) search for temporally and spatially varying spectral characteristics indicative of frost properties (i.e., crystal size, contamination, etc.) and relationship to the regolith. To meet these goals, MCS acquired thermal infrared observations of the surface and atmosphere at variable local times (≈1.70-3.80 h Local True Solar Time) and in the 10°-50°N latitude band where very low thermal inertia material (frost distribution and spectral properties. In addition, pre-frost deposition surface cooling rates are found to be consistent with those predicted by numerical models (i.e., 1-2K per hour). Finally, we observe buffered surface temperatures near the local frost point, indicating a surface emissivity ≈1. (i.e., optically thin frost layers, or dust contaminated frost, or slab-like ice) and no discernable frost metamorphism. We will present a detailed analysis of these new and unique observations, and elaborate on the potential relationship between the regolith and this recurring frost cycle.

  19. Model selection for integrated pest management with stochasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akman, Olcay; Comar, Timothy D; Hrozencik, Daniel

    2018-04-07

    In Song and Xiang (2006), an integrated pest management model with periodically varying climatic conditions was introduced. In order to address a wider range of environmental effects, the authors here have embarked upon a series of studies resulting in a more flexible modeling approach. In Akman et al. (2013), the impact of randomly changing environmental conditions is examined by incorporating stochasticity into the birth pulse of the prey species. In Akman et al. (2014), the authors introduce a class of models via a mixture of two birth-pulse terms and determined conditions for the global and local asymptotic stability of the pest eradication solution. With this work, the authors unify the stochastic and mixture model components to create further flexibility in modeling the impacts of random environmental changes on an integrated pest management system. In particular, we first determine the conditions under which solutions of our deterministic mixture model are permanent. We then analyze the stochastic model to find the optimal value of the mixing parameter that minimizes the variance in the efficacy of the pesticide. Additionally, we perform a sensitivity analysis to show that the corresponding pesticide efficacy determined by this optimization technique is indeed robust. Through numerical simulations we show that permanence can be preserved in our stochastic model. Our study of the stochastic version of the model indicates that our results on the deterministic model provide informative conclusions about the behavior of the stochastic model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Infinite-degree-corrected stochastic block model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2014-01-01

    In stochastic block models, which are among the most prominent statistical models for cluster analysis of complex networks, clusters are defined as groups of nodes with statistically similar link probabilities within and between groups. A recent extension by Karrer and Newman [Karrer and Newman...... corrected stochastic block model as a nonparametric Bayesian model, incorporating a parameter to control the amount of degree correction that can then be inferred from data. Additionally, our formulation yields principled ways of inferring the number of groups as well as predicting missing links...

  1. Visualization of frosting phenomena by using neutron radiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshimura, Tomoya; Matsumoto, Ryosuke; Umekawa, Hisashi; Ami, Takeyuki; Saito, Yasushi

    2012-01-01

    This study focuses on the frost formation on the fin-tube heat exchanger using neutron radiography. The visualization of the frost formation was estimated by the attenuation of the neutron beam through the water. The visualization image of the neutron radiography shows clearly the frost formation phenomena on the fin-tube heat exchanger. The rapid frost formation was observed at the fin and tube edges. Local mass transfer coefficient can be calculated from the differential images of the neutron radiography. (author)

  2. Frost risks in the Mantaro river basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Trasmonte

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available As part of the study on the Mantaro river basin's (central Andes of Perú current vulnerability to climate change, the temporal and spatial characteristics of frosts were analysed. These characteristics included intensity, frequency, duration, frost-free periods, area distribution and historical trends. Maps of frost risk were determined for the entire river basin, by means of mathematical algorithms and GIS (Geographic Information Systems tools, using minimum temperature – 1960 to 2002 period, geomorphology, slope, land-use, types of soils, vegetation and life zones, emphasizing the rainy season (September to April, when the impacts of frost on agriculture are most severe. We recognized four categories of frost risks: low, moderate, high and critical. The critical risks (with a very high probability of occurrence were related to high altitudes on the basin (altitudes higher than 3800 m a.s.l., while the low (or null probability of occurring risks were found in the lower zones (less than 2500 m a.s.l.. Because of the very intense agricultural activity and the high sensitivity of the main crops (Maize, potato, artichoke in the Mantaro valley (altitudes between 3100 and 3300 m a.s.l., moderate to high frost risks can be expected, with a low to moderate probability of occurrence. Another significant result was a positive trend of 8 days per decade in the number of frost days during the rainy season.

  3. A Stochastic Model for Malaria Transmission Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Waema Mbogo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaria is one of the three most dangerous infectious diseases worldwide (along with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. In this paper we compare the disease dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models in order to determine the effect of randomness in malaria transmission dynamics. Relationships between the basic reproduction number for malaria transmission dynamics between humans and mosquitoes and the extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under certain assumptions. The stochastic model is formulated using the continuous-time discrete state Galton-Watson branching process (CTDSGWbp. The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction from stochastic models contribute crucial knowledge on disease control and elimination and mitigation of infectious diseases. Analytical and numerical results show some significant differences in model predictions between the stochastic and deterministic models. In particular, we find that malaria outbreak is more likely if the disease is introduced by infected mosquitoes as opposed to infected humans. These insights demonstrate the importance of a policy or intervention focusing on controlling the infected mosquito population if the control of malaria is to be realized.

  4. Stochastic modeling and analysis of telecoms networks

    CERN Document Server

    Decreusefond, Laurent

    2012-01-01

    This book addresses the stochastic modeling of telecommunication networks, introducing the main mathematical tools for that purpose, such as Markov processes, real and spatial point processes and stochastic recursions, and presenting a wide list of results on stability, performances and comparison of systems.The authors propose a comprehensive mathematical construction of the foundations of stochastic network theory: Markov chains, continuous time Markov chains are extensively studied using an original martingale-based approach. A complete presentation of stochastic recursions from an

  5. The suspension (Frost) suture: experience and applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Karen L; Albertini, John G; Miller, Christopher J; Ozog, David M

    2015-03-01

    The Frost suture is a well-known surgical technique for providing upward tension on the lower lid to prevent or correct ectropion after surgical interventions in the periorbital area. Despite its relatively common use, comprehensive information on executing this technique is not readily available. To review eyelid anatomy, indications, and proper technique for performing the Frost suture, as well as potential complications. A review of the literature on Frost sutures was performed. Cadaveric dissection was performed to demonstrate placement of the Frost suture. The Frost suture is a useful method to reduce the risk of ectropion after surgery near the lower eyelid. Downward pull on the lid can occur with normal wound contracture even if ectropion is not present with the initial repair, reinforcing the need for preventive measures. Potential complications of this technique include superficial skin erosion of the upper lid, corneal abrasion, and blockage of the field of vision while the suture is in place.

  6. Comparison of heat pump performance using fin-and-tube and microchannel heat exchangers under frost conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shao, Liang-Liang; Yang, Liang; Zhang, Chun-Lu

    2010-01-01

    Vapor compression heat pumps are drawing more attention in energy saving applications. Microchannel heat exchangers can provide higher performance via less core volume and reduce system refrigerant charge, but little is known about their performance in heat pump systems under frosting conditions. In this study, the system performance of a commercial heat pump using microchannel heat exchangers as evaporator is compared with that using conventional finned-tube heat exchangers numerically and experimentally. The microchannel and finned-tube heat pump system models used for comparison of the microchannel and finned-tube evaporator performance under frosting conditions were developed, considering the effect of maldistribution on both refrigerant and air sides. The quasi-steady-state modeling results are in reasonable agreement with the test data under frost conditions. The refrigerant-side maldistribution is found remarkable impact on the microchannel heat pump system performance under the frost conditions. Parametric study on the fan speed and the fin density under frost conditions are conducted as well to figure out the best trade-off in the design of frost tolerant evaporators. (author)

  7. Stochastic line motion and stochastic flux conservation for nonideal hydromagnetic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyink, Gregory L.

    2009-01-01

    We prove that smooth solutions of nonideal (viscous and resistive) incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations satisfy a stochastic law of flux conservation. This property implies that the magnetic flux through a surface is equal to the average of the magnetic fluxes through an ensemble of surfaces advected backward in time by the plasma velocity perturbed with a random white noise. Our result is an analog of the well-known Alfven theorem of ideal MHD and is valid for any value of the magnetic Prandtl number. A second stochastic conservation law is shown to hold at unit Prandtl number, a random version of the generalized Kelvin theorem derived by Bekenstein and Oron for ideal MHD. These stochastic conservation laws are not only shown to be consequences of the nonideal MHD equations but are proved in fact to be equivalent to those equations. We derive similar results for two more refined hydromagnetic models, Hall MHD and the two-fluid plasma model, still assuming incompressible velocities and isotropic transport coefficients. Finally, we use these results to discuss briefly the infinite-Reynolds-number limit of hydromagnetic turbulence and to support the conjecture that flux conservation remains stochastic in that limit.

  8. A stochastic model of enzyme kinetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanini, Marianne; Newman, Timothy; McKane, Alan

    2003-10-01

    Enzyme kinetics is generally modeled by deterministic rate equations, and in the simplest case leads to the well-known Michaelis-Menten equation. It is plausible that stochastic effects will play an important role at low enzyme concentrations. We have addressed this by constructing a simple stochastic model which can be exactly solved in the steady-state. Throughout a wide range of parameter values Michaelis-Menten dynamics is replaced by a new and simple theoretical result.

  9. [Comparison of red edge parameters of winter wheat canopy under late frost stress].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yong-feng; Hu, Xin; Lü, Guo-hua; Ren, De-chao; Jiang, Wei-guo; Song, Ji-qing

    2014-08-01

    In the present study, late frost experiments were implemented under a range of subfreezing temperatures (-1 - -9 degrees C) by using a field movable climate chamber (FMCC) and a cold climate chamber, respectively. Based on the spectra of winter wheat canopy measured at noon on the first day after the frost experiments, red edge parameters REP, Dr, SDr, Dr(min), Dr/Dr(min) and Dr/SDr were extracted using maximum first derivative spectrum method (FD), linear four-point interpolation method (FPI), polynomial fitting method (POLY), inverted Gaussian fitting method (IG) and linear extrapolation technique (LE), respectively. The capacity of the red edge parameters to detect late frost stress was explicated from the aspects of the early, sensitivity and stability through correlation analysis, linear regression modeling and fluctuation analysis. The result indicates that except for REP calculated from FPI and IG method in Experiment 1, REP from the other methods was correlated with frost temperatures (P frost temperatures (P frost temperatures which indicated that LE method is the best for REP extraction. In Experiment 1 and 2, only Dr(min) and Dr/Dr(min), calculated by FD method simultaneously achieved the requirements for the early (their correlations with frost temperatures showed a significant level P frost temperatures al- ways keep a consistent direction). Dr/SDr calculated from FD and IG methods always had a low sensitivity in Experiment 2. In Experiment 1, the sensitivity of Dr/SDr from FD was moderate and IG was high. REP calculated from LE method had a lowest sensitivity in the two experiments. Totally, Dr(min) and Dr/Dr(min) calculated by FD method have the strongest detection capacity for frost temperature, which will be helpful to conducting the research on early diagnosis of late frost injury to winter wheat.

  10. Dissecting the genetic architecture of frost tolerance in Central European winter wheat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yusheng; Gowda, Manje; Würschum, Tobias; Longin, C Friedrich H; Korzun, Viktor; Kollers, Sonja; Schachschneider, Ralf; Zeng, Jian; Fernando, Rohan; Dubcovsky, Jorge; Reif, Jochen C

    2013-11-01

    Abiotic stress tolerance in plants is pivotal to increase yield stability, but its genetic basis is still poorly understood. To gain insight into the genetic architecture of frost tolerance, this work evaluated a large mapping population of 1739 wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) lines and hybrids adapted to Central Europe in field trials in Germany and fingerprinted the lines with a 9000 single-nucleotide polymorphism array. Additive effects prevailed over dominance effects. A two-dimensional genome scan revealed the presence of epistatic effects. Genome-wide association mapping in combination with a robust cross-validation strategy identified one frost tolerance locus with a major effect located on chromosome 5B. This locus was not in linkage disequilibrium with the known frost loci Fr-B1 and Fr-B2. The use of the detected diagnostic markers on chromosome 5B, however, does not allow prediction of frost tolerance with high accuracy. Application of genome-wide selection approaches that take into account also loci with small effect sizes considerably improved prediction of the genetic variation of frost tolerance in wheat. The developed prediction model is valuable for improving frost tolerance because this trait displays a wide variation in occurrence across years and is therefore a difficult target for conventional phenotypic selection.

  11. Stochastic Control - External Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2005-01-01

    This note is devoted to control of stochastic systems described in discrete time. We are concerned with external descriptions or transfer function model, where we have a dynamic model for the input output relation only (i.e.. no direct internal information). The methods are based on LTI systems...

  12. Stochastic dynamic modeling of regular and slow earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aso, N.; Ando, R.; Ide, S.

    2017-12-01

    Both regular and slow earthquakes are slip phenomena on plate boundaries and are simulated by a (quasi-)dynamic modeling [Liu and Rice, 2005]. In these numerical simulations, spatial heterogeneity is usually considered not only for explaining real physical properties but also for evaluating the stability of the calculations or the sensitivity of the results on the condition. However, even though we discretize the model space with small grids, heterogeneity at smaller scales than the grid size is not considered in the models with deterministic governing equations. To evaluate the effect of heterogeneity at the smaller scales we need to consider stochastic interactions between slip and stress in a dynamic modeling. Tidal stress is known to trigger or affect both regular and slow earthquakes [Yabe et al., 2015; Ide et al., 2016], and such an external force with fluctuation can also be considered as a stochastic external force. A healing process of faults may also be stochastic, so we introduce stochastic friction law. In the present study, we propose a stochastic dynamic model to explain both regular and slow earthquakes. We solve mode III problem, which corresponds to the rupture propagation along the strike direction. We use BIEM (boundary integral equation method) scheme to simulate slip evolution, but we add stochastic perturbations in the governing equations, which is usually written in a deterministic manner. As the simplest type of perturbations, we adopt Gaussian deviations in the formulation of the slip-stress kernel, external force, and friction. By increasing the amplitude of perturbations of the slip-stress kernel, we reproduce complicated rupture process of regular earthquakes including unilateral and bilateral ruptures. By perturbing external force, we reproduce slow rupture propagation at a scale of km/day. The slow propagation generated by a combination of fast interaction at S-wave velocity is analogous to the kinetic theory of gasses: thermal

  13. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  14. Dynamics of a Stochastic Intraguild Predation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zejing Xing

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Intraguild predation (IGP is a widespread ecological phenomenon which occurs when one predator species attacks another predator species with which it competes for a shared prey species. The objective of this paper is to study the dynamical properties of a stochastic intraguild predation model. We analyze stochastic persistence and extinction of the stochastic IGP model containing five cases and establish the sufficient criteria for global asymptotic stability of the positive solutions. This study shows that it is possible for the coexistence of three species under the influence of environmental noise, and that the noise may have a positive effect for IGP species. A stationary distribution of the stochastic IGP model is established and it has the ergodic property, suggesting that the time average of population size with the development of time is equal to the stationary distribution in space. Finally, we show that our results may be extended to two well-known biological systems: food chains and exploitative competition.

  15. Observations of Chemical Composition in Frost Flower Growth Process and Their Implication in Aerosol Production and Bromine Activation Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Aviles, L.; Simpson, W. R.; Douglas, T. A.; Sturm, M.; Perovich, D. K.

    2006-12-01

    Frost flowers are believed to be responsible for most of the salt aerosol and possibly the bromine in the gas phase during springtime in Polar Regions. Frost flowers are vapor deposited ice crystals that form on new forming sea ice and wick brine from the sea-ice surface resulting in high salinities. We propose a conceptual model of frost flower growth and chemical fractionation using chemical analysis to support this model. We also consider how the chemical composition of frost flowers can tell us about the role of frost flowers in bromine activation and aerosol production. Our conceptual model is centered in two important events that occur when sea ice grows and the ice surface temperature gets colder. Brine on the sea-ice surface is drawn up the frost flower by capillary forces, therefore the high salinity values found. Secondarily salt hydrates begin to precipitate at certain temperatures. These precipitation reactions modify the chemical composition of the frost flowers and residual brine, and are the main topic of this research. We found variability and generally depletion of sulfate as compared to sea-water composition in most of the mature frost flowers. This result is in agreement with the literature, which proposes the depletion in sulfate occurs because mirabilite (Na2SO4 · 10H2O) precipitates before the brine is wicked. The observation of some slightly sulfate-enhanced samples in addition to depleted samples indicates that the brine/frost flower environment is the location where mirabilite precipitation and separation from residual brine occurs. Frost flowers bromide enhancement factors are all, within analytical limits, identical to sea water, although nearby snow is depleted in bromide. Because of the high salt concentrations in frost flowers, significant bromine activation could occur from frost flowers without being detected by this measurement. However, if all bromide activation occurred on frost flowers, and frost flowers are not depleted in

  16. Stochastic Modeling of Traffic Air Pollution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, modeling of traffic air pollution is discussed with special reference to infrastructures. A number of subjects related to health effects of air pollution and the different types of pollutants are briefly presented. A simple model for estimating the social cost of traffic related air...... and using simple Monte Carlo techniques to obtain a stochastic estimate of the costs of traffic air pollution for infrastructures....... pollution is derived. Several authors have published papers on this very complicated subject, but no stochastic modelling procedure have obtained general acceptance. The subject is discussed basis of a deterministic model. However, it is straightforward to modify this model to include uncertain parameters...

  17. Stochastic modelling of turbulence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Emil Hedevang Lohse

    previously been shown to be closely connected to the energy dissipation. The incorporation of the small scale dynamics into the spatial model opens the door to a fully fledged stochastic model of turbulence. Concerning the interaction of wind and wind turbine, a new method is proposed to extract wind turbine...

  18. Numerical analysis on the frosting performance of a fin-tube evaporator for a refrigerator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Moo Yeon; Jang, Yong Hee; Kim, Yong Chan; Lee, Ho Sung

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this study is to provide numerical and experimental data that can be used to investigate the performance characteristics of a flat plate fin-tube evaporator in household and commercial refrigerators under frosting conditions. Computer simulations with variations of operating conditions such as air inlet temperature, relative humidity, and geometries were performed to find out optimal design parameters of a fin-tube evaporator for household and commercial refrigerators. The tube-by-tube method was used in the simulation and the frost growth model was considered under frosting conditions. The developed analytical model predicted the decreasing rates of heat transfer capacity and air flow rate ratio within ± 10% compared to the experimental results for a refrigerator under real operating conditions. As a result, the frost thickness at 3 .deg. C and 80% is increased 40% than that of -3 .deg. C and 80%, and the frost thickness at 3 .deg. C and 90% is increased 30% than that of 3 .deg. C and 60%. Accordingly, the operating time of the evaporator in the refrigerator was reduced with the increase of the decreasing rate of air flow rate ratio at each condition

  19. Condensation and frost formation in heat exchangers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rostami, A.A.

    1982-01-01

    The occurence of condensation and of frost formation are considered for air to heat exchangers with emphasis on how such occurrences would affect the performance of such heat exchangers when they are used in ventilating applications. The formulations which predict performance are developed for parallel, counter flow and cross flow with either formation or condensation, and for condensation the consequences for evaporation of condensate and of the effect of longitudinal conduction in the walls of the exchanger are also considered. For the prediction of the exchanger performance with frost formation there must be specified the growth of the frost layer with time and existing theories for this growth are examined, a new method of calculation of the growth is presented and this is shown to give results for the growth that are in accord with available experimental evidence. This new theory for the growth of a frost layer is used to predict the performance of a parallel flow exchanger under conditions in which frost formation occurs, by successively applying the steady state performance calculation for time increments over which the frost layer build-up is calculated for these time increments. The calculation of counter flow exchanger performance by this method, while feasible, is so time consuming that only the general aspects of the calculation are considered

  20. Reeds as potential sources of alcohol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lodh, A B; Rao, P R

    1964-01-01

    Five species of reeds, Erianthus ravennae, Saccharum munja S. procerum, Phragmites communis, and Neyraudia reynaudiana yielded 25.02, 19.5, 24.11, 26.1, and 21.6% reducing sugars, repectively., when digested with 1% H/sub 2/SO/sub 4/ under 15lb/square inch for 3 hours. Fermentable sugars from hydrolyzates of the above reeds were 70.0, 34.5, 65.0, 28.0, and 67.5% respectively. This source can become important only in case of an acute demand for fermentation alcohol.

  1. Approximate models for broken clouds in stochastic radiative transfer theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doicu, Adrian; Efremenko, Dmitry S.; Loyola, Diego; Trautmann, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents approximate models in stochastic radiative transfer theory. The independent column approximation and its modified version with a solar source computed in a full three-dimensional atmosphere are formulated in a stochastic framework and for arbitrary cloud statistics. The nth-order stochastic models describing the independent column approximations are equivalent to the nth-order stochastic models for the original radiance fields in which the gradient vectors are neglected. Fast approximate models are further derived on the basis of zeroth-order stochastic models and the independent column approximation. The so-called “internal mixing” models assume a combination of the optical properties of the cloud and the clear sky, while the “external mixing” models assume a combination of the radiances corresponding to completely overcast and clear skies. A consistent treatment of internal and external mixing models is provided, and a new parameterization of the closure coefficient in the effective thickness approximation is given. An efficient computation of the closure coefficient for internal mixing models, using a previously derived vector stochastic model as a reference, is also presented. Equipped with appropriate look-up tables for the closure coefficient, these models can easily be integrated into operational trace gas retrieval systems that exploit absorption features in the near-IR solar spectrum. - Highlights: • Independent column approximation in a stochastic setting. • Fast internal and external mixing models for total and diffuse radiances. • Efficient optimization of internal mixing models to match reference models

  2. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

    2006-01-01

    A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  3. Test models for improving filtering with model errors through stochastic parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gershgorin, B.; Harlim, J.; Majda, A.J.

    2010-01-01

    The filtering skill for turbulent signals from nature is often limited by model errors created by utilizing an imperfect model for filtering. Updating the parameters in the imperfect model through stochastic parameter estimation is one way to increase filtering skill and model performance. Here a suite of stringent test models for filtering with stochastic parameter estimation is developed based on the Stochastic Parameterization Extended Kalman Filter (SPEKF). These new SPEKF-algorithms systematically correct both multiplicative and additive biases and involve exact formulas for propagating the mean and covariance including the parameters in the test model. A comprehensive study is presented of robust parameter regimes for increasing filtering skill through stochastic parameter estimation for turbulent signals as the observation time and observation noise are varied and even when the forcing is incorrectly specified. The results here provide useful guidelines for filtering turbulent signals in more complex systems with significant model errors.

  4. Modelling and application of stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    1986-01-01

    The subject of modelling and application of stochastic processes is too vast to be exhausted in a single volume. In this book, attention is focused on a small subset of this vast subject. The primary emphasis is on realization and approximation of stochastic systems. Recently there has been considerable interest in the stochastic realization problem, and hence, an attempt has been made here to collect in one place some of the more recent approaches and algorithms for solving the stochastic realiza­ tion problem. Various different approaches for realizing linear minimum-phase systems, linear nonminimum-phase systems, and bilinear systems are presented. These approaches range from time-domain methods to spectral-domain methods. An overview of the chapter contents briefly describes these approaches. Also, in most of these chapters special attention is given to the problem of developing numerically ef­ ficient algorithms for obtaining reduced-order (approximate) stochastic realizations. On the application side,...

  5. 12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rafajłowicz, Ewaryst; Szajowski, Krzysztof

    2015-01-01

    This volume presents the latest advances and trends in stochastic models and related statistical procedures. Selected peer-reviewed contributions focus on statistical inference, quality control, change-point analysis and detection, empirical processes, time series analysis, survival analysis and reliability, statistics for stochastic processes, big data in technology and the sciences, statistical genetics, experiment design, and stochastic models in engineering. Stochastic models and related statistical procedures play an important part in furthering our understanding of the challenging problems currently arising in areas of application such as the natural sciences, information technology, engineering, image analysis, genetics, energy and finance, to name but a few. This collection arises from the 12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications, Wroclaw, Poland.

  6. Frosting and defrosting of air-coils - results from laboratory testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fahlen, P

    1997-12-31

    Frosting of air-coils is an important factor in the design and operation of air-source heat pumps, heat recovery ventilators, cooling and refrigeration equipment etc. This report presents results from laboratory testing of two brine-cooled air-coils under frosting conditions. The coils have the same number of plane, continuous fins, 4 tube rows with 12 tubes in each row, tube spacing of 50 mm and fin spacing of 3 and 6 mm respectively. The original purpose of the test program was to compare various possible indicators of coil frosting and to analyze the possible effects of different control strategies on coil capacity and the COP of the system (the analysis will be presented in a separate report). Tests involved inlet air temperatures of -7 and +2 degC, variation of humidity between 70 and 100% RH (including simulated rain), velocities in the range 1 to 4 m/s, and specific cooling loads from 50 to 150 W/m{sup 2}. Test results include variations due to frosting of e.g. cooling capacity, COP, air flow and pressure drop, fan power, air outlet temperature and humidity, coil temperature, frost mass, and frosting time. Results also include the subsequently required defrost time, defrost energy and collected mass of defrost water. The frosting process was interrupted when the air flow had decreased to 30% of the original value with a non-frosted coil. The results clearly show the advantage of demand controlled defrosting with variations in frosting time between 2 h with high humidity/high specific cooling load up to, for practical purposes, infinite frosting times with low humidity/low specific cooling load. The accumulated frost mass during one frosting cycle varied from less than 0.02 kg/m{sup 2} up to approximately 0.4 kg/m{sup 2}. 23 refs, 93 figs, 89 tabs

  7. Frosting and defrosting of air-coils - results from laboratory testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fahlen, P.

    1996-12-31

    Frosting of air-coils is an important factor in the design and operation of air-source heat pumps, heat recovery ventilators, cooling and refrigeration equipment etc. This report presents results from laboratory testing of two brine-cooled air-coils under frosting conditions. The coils have the same number of plane, continuous fins, 4 tube rows with 12 tubes in each row, tube spacing of 50 mm and fin spacing of 3 and 6 mm respectively. The original purpose of the test program was to compare various possible indicators of coil frosting and to analyze the possible effects of different control strategies on coil capacity and the COP of the system (the analysis will be presented in a separate report). Tests involved inlet air temperatures of -7 and +2 degC, variation of humidity between 70 and 100% RH (including simulated rain), velocities in the range 1 to 4 m/s, and specific cooling loads from 50 to 150 W/m{sup 2}. Test results include variations due to frosting of e.g. cooling capacity, COP, air flow and pressure drop, fan power, air outlet temperature and humidity, coil temperature, frost mass, and frosting time. Results also include the subsequently required defrost time, defrost energy and collected mass of defrost water. The frosting process was interrupted when the air flow had decreased to 30% of the original value with a non-frosted coil. The results clearly show the advantage of demand controlled defrosting with variations in frosting time between 2 h with high humidity/high specific cooling load up to, for practical purposes, infinite frosting times with low humidity/low specific cooling load. The accumulated frost mass during one frosting cycle varied from less than 0.02 kg/m{sup 2} up to approximately 0.4 kg/m{sup 2}. 23 refs, 93 figs, 89 tabs

  8. Effect of frost on phosphorescence for thermographic phosphor thermometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dong; Kim, Mirae; Kim, Kyung Chun

    2017-12-01

    In this study, we analyzed phosphorescence lifetime and its accuracy by growing frost for thermographic phosphor thermometry in a low-temperature environment. Mg4FGeO6:Mn particles were coated on an aluminum plate and excited with a UV-LED to obtain phosphorescence signals. The surface temperature was maintained at  -20, -15, -10 °C, and the phosphorescence signal was acquired as the frost grew for 3700 s. The lifetime was calculated and compared with the calibration curve under no-frost conditions. The error of the measured lifetime was within 0.7% of that in the no-frost conditions. A 2D surface temperature profile of the target plate was successfully obtained with the frost formation.

  9. Constraining Stochastic Parametrisation Schemes Using High-Resolution Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, H. M.; Dawson, A.; Palmer, T.

    2017-12-01

    Stochastic parametrisations are used in weather and climate models as a physically motivated way to represent model error due to unresolved processes. Designing new stochastic schemes has been the target of much innovative research over the last decade. While a focus has been on developing physically motivated approaches, many successful stochastic parametrisation schemes are very simple, such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) multiplicative scheme `Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies' (SPPT). The SPPT scheme improves the skill of probabilistic weather and seasonal forecasts, and so is widely used. However, little work has focused on assessing the physical basis of the SPPT scheme. We address this matter by using high-resolution model simulations to explicitly measure the `error' in the parametrised tendency that SPPT seeks to represent. The high resolution simulations are first coarse-grained to the desired forecast model resolution before they are used to produce initial conditions and forcing data needed to drive the ECMWF Single Column Model (SCM). By comparing SCM forecast tendencies with the evolution of the high resolution model, we can measure the `error' in the forecast tendencies. In this way, we provide justification for the multiplicative nature of SPPT, and for the temporal and spatial scales of the stochastic perturbations. However, we also identify issues with the SPPT scheme. It is therefore hoped these measurements will improve both holistic and process based approaches to stochastic parametrisation. Figure caption: Instantaneous snapshot of the optimal SPPT stochastic perturbation, derived by comparing high-resolution simulations with a low resolution forecast model.

  10. Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction-diffusion models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spill, Fabian; Guerrero, Pilar; Alarcon, Tomas; Maini, Philip K.; Byrne, Helen

    2015-10-01

    Reaction-diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction-diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model.

  11. Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction-diffusion models.

    KAUST Repository

    Spill, Fabian; Guerrero, Pilar; Alarcon, Tomas; Maini, Philip K; Byrne, Helen

    2015-01-01

    Reaction-diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction-diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model.

  12. Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction-diffusion models.

    KAUST Repository

    Spill, Fabian

    2015-10-01

    Reaction-diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction-diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model.

  13. One-way quantum repeaters with quantum Reed-Solomon codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muralidharan, Sreraman; Zou, Chang-Ling; Li, Linshu; Jiang, Liang

    2018-05-01

    We show that quantum Reed-Solomon codes constructed from classical Reed-Solomon codes can approach the capacity on the quantum erasure channel of d -level systems for large dimension d . We study the performance of one-way quantum repeaters with these codes and obtain a significant improvement in key generation rate compared to previously investigated encoding schemes with quantum parity codes and quantum polynomial codes. We also compare the three generations of quantum repeaters using quantum Reed-Solomon codes and identify parameter regimes where each generation performs the best.

  14. Self-jumping Mechanism of Melting Frost on Superhydrophobic Surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaolin; Chen, Huawei; Zhao, Zehui; Wang, Yamei; Liu, Hong; Zhang, Deyuan

    2017-11-07

    Frost accretion on surfaces may cause severe problems and the high-efficiency defrosting methods are still urgently needed in many application fields like heat transfer, optical and electric power system, etc. In this study, a nano-needle superhydrophobic surface is prepared and the frosting/defrosting experiments are conducted on it. Three steps are found in the defrosting process: melting frost shrinking and splitting, instantaneous self-triggered deforming followed by deformation-induced movements (namely, in-situ shaking, rotating, rolling, and self-jumping). The self-jumping performance of the melting frost is extremely fascinating and worth studying due to its capability of evidently shortening the defrosting process and reducing (even avoiding) residual droplets after defrosting. The study on the melting frost self-jumping phenomena demonstrates that the kinetic energy transformed from instantaneous superficial area change in self-triggered deforming step is the intrinsic reason for various melting frost self-propelled movements, and when the transformed energy reaches a certain amount, the self-jumping phenomena occur. And some facilitating conditions for melting frost self-jumping phenomena are also discussed. This work will provide an efficient way for defrosting or an inspiration for further research on defrosting.

  15. Modeling the Integrated Expansion of the Canadian and U.S. Power Sectors with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zinaman, Owen [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ibanez, Eduardo [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heimiller, Donna [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-02

    This document describes the development effort for creating a robust representation of the combined capacity expansion of the U.S. and Canadian electric sectors within the NREL ReEDS model. Thereafter, it demonstrates the newly established capability through an illustrative sensitivity analysis. In conducting the sensitivity analysis, we describe the value of an integrated modeling approach.

  16. A stochastic modeling of recurrent measles epidemic | Kassem ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A simple stochastic mathematical model is developed and investigated for the dynamics of measles epidemic. The model, which is a multi-dimensional diffusion process, includes susceptible individuals, latent (exposed), infected and removed individuals. Stochastic effects are assumed to arise in the process of infection of ...

  17. A cavitation model based on Eulerian stochastic fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magagnato, F.; Dumond, J.

    2013-12-01

    Non-linear phenomena can often be described using probability density functions (pdf) and pdf transport models. Traditionally the simulation of pdf transport requires Monte-Carlo codes based on Lagrangian "particles" or prescribed pdf assumptions including binning techniques. Recently, in the field of combustion, a novel formulation called the stochastic-field method solving pdf transport based on Eulerian fields has been proposed which eliminates the necessity to mix Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques or prescribed pdf assumptions. In the present work, for the first time the stochastic-field method is applied to multi-phase flow and in particular to cavitating flow. To validate the proposed stochastic-field cavitation model, two applications are considered. Firstly, sheet cavitation is simulated in a Venturi-type nozzle. The second application is an innovative fluidic diode which exhibits coolant flashing. Agreement with experimental results is obtained for both applications with a fixed set of model constants. The stochastic-field cavitation model captures the wide range of pdf shapes present at different locations.

  18. Stochastic quantization for the axial model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farina, C.; Montani, H.; Albuquerque, L.C.

    1991-01-01

    We use bosonization ideas to solve the axial model in the stochastic quantization framework. We obtain the fermion propagator of the theory decoupling directly the Langevin equation, instead of the Fokker-Planck equation. In the Appendix we calculate explicitly the anomalous divergence of the axial-vector current by using a regularization that does not break the Markovian character of the stochastic process

  19. Stochastic model simulation using Kronecker product analysis and Zassenhaus formula approximation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caglar, Mehmet Umut; Pal, Ranadip

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Models are regularly applied in Genetic Regulatory Network modeling to capture the stochastic behavior observed in the generation of biological entities such as mRNA or proteins. Several approaches including Stochastic Master Equations and Probabilistic Boolean Networks have been proposed to model the stochastic behavior in genetic regulatory networks. It is generally accepted that Stochastic Master Equation is a fundamental model that can describe the system being investigated in fine detail, but the application of this model is computationally enormously expensive. On the other hand, Probabilistic Boolean Network captures only the coarse-scale stochastic properties of the system without modeling the detailed interactions. We propose a new approximation of the stochastic master equation model that is able to capture the finer details of the modeled system including bistabilities and oscillatory behavior, and yet has a significantly lower computational complexity. In this new method, we represent the system using tensors and derive an identity to exploit the sparse connectivity of regulatory targets for complexity reduction. The algorithm involves an approximation based on Zassenhaus formula to represent the exponential of a sum of matrices as product of matrices. We derive upper bounds on the expected error of the proposed model distribution as compared to the stochastic master equation model distribution. Simulation results of the application of the model to four different biological benchmark systems illustrate performance comparable to detailed stochastic master equation models but with considerably lower computational complexity. The results also demonstrate the reduced complexity of the new approach as compared to commonly used Stochastic Simulation Algorithm for equivalent accuracy.

  20. Frost monitoring of fruit tree with satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jinlong; Zhang, Mingwei; Cao, Guangzheng; Zhang, Xiaoyu; Liu, Chenchen; Niu, Xinzan; Xu, Wengbo

    2012-09-01

    The orchards are developing very fast in the northern China in recent years with the increasing demands on fruits in China. In most parts of the northern China, the risk of frost damage to fruit tree in early spring is potentially high under the background of global warming. The growing season comes earlier than it does in normal year due to the warm weather in earlier spring and the risk will be higher in this case. According to the reports, frost event in spring happens almost every year in Ningxia Region, China. In bad cases, late frosts in spring can be devastating all fruit. So lots of attention has been given to the study in monitoring, evaluating, preventing and mitigating frost. Two orchards in Ningxia, Taole and Jiaozishan orchards were selected as the study areas. MODIS data were used to monitor frost events in combination with minimum air temperature recorded at weather station. The paper presents the findings. The very good correlation was found between MODIS LST and minimum air temperature in Ningxia. Light, middle and severe frosts were captured in the study area by MODIS LST. The MODIS LST shows the spatial differences of temperature in the orchards. 10 frost events in April from 2000 to 2010 were captured by the satellite data. The monitoring information may be hours ahead circulated to the fruit farmers to prevent the damage and loss of fruit trees.

  1. Frost resistance of building materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan De Place

    materials, has been developed.The importance of the pore structure on the development of stresses in the material during freezing is emphasized. To verify the model, experimental investigations are made on various concretes without air-entrainment and brick tiles with different porosities.Calculations......In this thesis it is shown that the critical degree of saturation is suitable as parameter for the frost resistance of porous building materials. A numerical model for prediction of critical degrees of saturation based on fracture mechanics and phase geometry of two-phase materials, e.g. porous...

  2. Analysis of stochastic effects in Kaldor-type business cycle discrete model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev; Sysolyatina, Anna

    2016-07-01

    We study nonlinear stochastic phenomena in the discrete Kaldor model of business cycles. A numerical parametric analysis of stochastically forced attractors (equilibria, closed invariant curves, discrete cycles) of this model is performed using the stochastic sensitivity functions technique. A spatial arrangement of random states in stochastic attractors is modeled by confidence domains. The phenomenon of noise-induced transitions ;chaos-order; is discussed.

  3. Potential sea salt aerosol sources from frost flowers in the pan-Arctic region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Li [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Now at Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Burrows, Susannah M. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2016-09-23

    In order to better represent observed wintertime aerosol concentrations at Barrow, Alaska, we implemented an observationally-based parameterization for estimating sea salt production from frost flowers in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In this work, we evaluate the potential influence of this sea salt source on the pan-Arctic (60ºN-90ºN) climate. Results show that frost flower salt emissions substantially increase the modeled surface sea salt aerosol concentration in the winter months when new sea ice and frost flowers are present. The parameterization reproduces both the magnitude and seasonal variation of the observed submicron sea salt aerosol concentration at surface in Barrow during winter much better than the standard CESM simulation without a frost-flower salt particle source. Adding these frost flower salt particle emissions increases aerosol optical depth by 10% and results in a small cooling at surface. The increase in salt particle mass concentrations of a factor of 8 provides nearly two times the cloud condensation nuclei concentration, as well as 10% increases in cloud droplet number and 40% increases in liquid water content near coastal regions adjacent to continents. These cloud changes reduce longwave cloud forcing by 3% and cause a small surface warming, increasing the downward longwave flux at the surface by 2 W m-2 in the pan-Arctic under the present-day climate.

  4. Stochastic Spectral Descent for Discrete Graphical Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, David; Hsieh, Ya-Ping; Collins, Edo; Carin, Lawrence; Cevher, Volkan

    2015-01-01

    Interest in deep probabilistic graphical models has in-creased in recent years, due to their state-of-the-art performance on many machine learning applications. Such models are typically trained with the stochastic gradient method, which can take a significant number of iterations to converge. Since the computational cost of gradient estimation is prohibitive even for modestly sized models, training becomes slow and practically usable models are kept small. In this paper we propose a new, largely tuning-free algorithm to address this problem. Our approach derives novel majorization bounds based on the Schatten- norm. Intriguingly, the minimizers of these bounds can be interpreted as gradient methods in a non-Euclidean space. We thus propose using a stochastic gradient method in non-Euclidean space. We both provide simple conditions under which our algorithm is guaranteed to converge, and demonstrate empirically that our algorithm leads to dramatically faster training and improved predictive ability compared to stochastic gradient descent for both directed and undirected graphical models.

  5. Correlation of Water Frost Porosity in Laminar Flow over Flat Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandula, Max

    2011-01-01

    A dimensionless correlation has been proposed for water frost porosity expressing its dependence on frost surface temperature and Reynolds number for laminar forced flow over a flat surface. The correlation is presented in terms of a dimensionless frost surface temperature scaled with the cold plate temperature, and the freezing temperature. The flow Reynolds number is scaled with reference to the critical Reynolds number for laminar-turbulent transition. The proposed correlation agrees satisfactorily with the simultaneous measurements of frost density and frost surface temperature covering a range of plate temperature, ambient air velocity, humidity, and temperature. It is revealed that the frost porosity depends primarily on the frost surface and the plate temperatures and the flow Reynolds number, and is only weakly dependent on the relative humidity. The results also point out the general character of frost porosity displaying a decrease with an increase in flow Reynolds number.

  6. From complex to simple: interdisciplinary stochastic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazilu, D A; Zamora, G; Mazilu, I

    2012-01-01

    We present two simple, one-dimensional, stochastic models that lead to a qualitative understanding of very complex systems from biology, nanoscience and social sciences. The first model explains the complicated dynamics of microtubules, stochastic cellular highways. Using the theory of random walks in one dimension, we find analytical expressions for certain physical quantities, such as the time dependence of the length of the microtubules, and diffusion coefficients. The second one is a stochastic adsorption model with applications in surface deposition, epidemics and voter systems. We introduce the ‘empty interval method’ and show sample calculations for the time-dependent particle density. These models can serve as an introduction to the field of non-equilibrium statistical physics, and can also be used as a pedagogical tool to exemplify standard statistical physics concepts, such as random walks or the kinetic approach of the master equation. (paper)

  7. Development of a Frost Risk Assessment Tool in Agriculture for a Mediterranean ecosystem Utilizing MODIS satellite observations Geomatics and Surface Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louka, Panagiota; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Petropoulos, George; Migiros, George; Tsiros, Ioannis

    2014-05-01

    Frost risk in Mediterranean countries is a critical factor in agricultural planning and management. Nowadays, the rapid technological developments in Earth Observation (EO) technology have improved dramatically our ability to map the spatiotemporal distribution of frost conditions over a given area and evaluate its impacts on the environment and society. In this study, a frost risk model for agricultural crops cultivated in a Mediterranean environment has been developed, based primarily on Earth Observation (EO) data from MODIS sensor and ancillary spatial and point data. The ability of the model to predict frost conditions has been validated for selected days on which frost conditions had been observed for a region in Northwestern Greece according to ground observations obtained by the Agricultural Insurance Organization (ELGA). An extensive evaluation of the frost risk model predictions has been performed herein to evaluate objectively its ability to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of frost risk in the studied region, including comparisons against physiographical factors of the study area. The topographical characteristics that were taken under consideration were latitude, altitude, slope steepness, topographic convergence and the extend of the areas influenced by water bodies (such as lake and sea) existing in the study area. Additional data were also used concerning land use data and vegetation classification (type and density). Our results showed that the model was able to produce reasonably the spatio-temporal distribution of the frost conditions in our study area, following largely explainable patterns in respect to the study site and local weather conditions characteristics. All in all, the methodology implemented herein proved capable in obtaining rapidly and cost-effectively cartography of the frost risk in a Mediterranean environment, making it potentially a very useful tool for agricultural management and planning. The model presented here has

  8. Stochastic fractional differential equations: Modeling, method and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedjeu, Jean-C.; Ladde, Gangaram S.

    2012-01-01

    By introducing a concept of dynamic process operating under multi-time scales in sciences and engineering, a mathematical model described by a system of multi-time scale stochastic differential equations is formulated. The classical Picard–Lindelöf successive approximations scheme is applied to the model validation problem, namely, existence and uniqueness of solution process. Naturally, this leads to the problem of finding closed form solutions of both linear and nonlinear multi-time scale stochastic differential equations of Itô–Doob type. Finally, to illustrate the scope of ideas and presented results, multi-time scale stochastic models for ecological and epidemiological processes in population dynamic are outlined.

  9. Nowcasting in the FROST-2014 Sochi Olympic project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bica, Benedikt; Wang, Yong; Joe, Paul; Isaac, George; Kiktev, Dmitry; Bocharnikov, Nikolai

    2013-04-01

    FROST (Forecast and Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed) 2014 is a WMO WWRP international project aimed at development, implementation, and demonstration of capabilities of short-range numerical weather prediction and nowcasting technologies for mountainous terrain in winter season. Sharp weather contrasts and high spatial and temporal variability are typical for the region of the Sochi-2014 Olympics. Steep mountainous terrain and an intricate mixture of maritime sub-tropical and Alpine environments make weather forecasting in this region extremely challenging. Goals of the FROST-2014 project: • To develop a comprehensive information resource of Alpine winter weather observations; • To improve and exploit: o Nowcasting systems of high impact weather phenomena (precipitation type and intensity, snow levels, visibility, wind speed, direction and gusts) in complex terrain; o High-resolution deterministic and ensemble mesoscale forecasts in winter complex terrain environment; • To improve the understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the region; • To deliver forecasts (Nowcasts) to Olympic weather forecasters and decision makers and assess benefits of forecast improvement. 46 Automatic Meteorological Stations (AMS) were installed in the Olympic region by Roshydromet, by owners of sport venues and by the Megafon corporation, provider of mobile communication services. The time resolution of AMS observations does not exceed 10 minutes. For a subset of the stations it is even equal to 1 min. Data flow from the new dual polarization Doppler weather radar WRM200 in Sochi was organized at the end of 2012. Temperature/humidity and wind profilers and two Micro Rain Radars (MRR) will supplement the network. Nowcasting potential of NWP models participating in the project (COSMO, GEM, WRF, AROME, HARMONIE) is to be assessed for direct and post-processed (e.g. Kalman filter, 1-D model, MOS) model forecasts. Besides the meso-scale models, the specialized

  10. Tsunamis: stochastic models of occurrence and generation mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Oglesby, David D.

    2014-01-01

    The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this entry, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic methods. In each case, seismogenic tsunamis are primarily considered. Stochastic models are developed from the physical theories that govern tsunami evolution combined with empirical models fitted to seismic and tsunami observations, as well as tsunami catalogs. These stochastic methods are key to providing probabilistic forecasts and hazard assessments for tsunamis. The stochastic methods described here are similar to those described for earthquakes (Vere-Jones 2013) and volcanoes (Bebbington 2013) in this encyclopedia.

  11. ARIMA-Based Time Series Model of Stochastic Wind Power Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan; Pedersen, Troels; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a stochastic wind power model based on an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process. The model takes into account the nonstationarity and physical limits of stochastic wind power generation. The model is constructed based on wind power measurement of one year from...... the Nysted offshore wind farm in Denmark. The proposed limited-ARIMA (LARIMA) model introduces a limiter and characterizes the stochastic wind power generation by mean level, temporal correlation and driving noise. The model is validated against the measurement in terms of temporal correlation...... and probability distribution. The LARIMA model outperforms a first-order transition matrix based discrete Markov model in terms of temporal correlation, probability distribution and model parameter number. The proposed LARIMA model is further extended to include the monthly variation of the stochastic wind power...

  12. Modeling stochasticity in biochemical reaction networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Constantino, P H; Vlysidis, M; Smadbeck, P; Kaznessis, Y N

    2016-01-01

    Small biomolecular systems are inherently stochastic. Indeed, fluctuations of molecular species are substantial in living organisms and may result in significant variation in cellular phenotypes. The chemical master equation (CME) is the most detailed mathematical model that can describe stochastic behaviors. However, because of its complexity the CME has been solved for only few, very small reaction networks. As a result, the contribution of CME-based approaches to biology has been very limited. In this review we discuss the approach of solving CME by a set of differential equations of probability moments, called moment equations. We present different approaches to produce and to solve these equations, emphasizing the use of factorial moments and the zero information entropy closure scheme. We also provide information on the stability analysis of stochastic systems. Finally, we speculate on the utility of CME-based modeling formalisms, especially in the context of synthetic biology efforts. (topical review)

  13. Frost damage of concrete subject to confinement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasholt, Marianne Tange

    2016-01-01

    When internal frost damage is observed in real concrete structures, the usual pattern is cracks with a preferred orientation parallel to the exposed surface. When exposing concrete with poor frost resistance to a standardised freeze/thaw test in the laboratory, the orientations of the resulting...

  14. Frost hardiness of tree species is independent of phenology and macroclimatic niche.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, M; Bruelheide, H

    2015-03-01

    The differences in timing in bud burst between species have been interpreted as an adaptation to late frost events in spring. Thus, it has been suggested that the degree of frost susceptibility of leaves is species-specific and depends on the species' phenology and geographic distribution range. To test for relationships between frost tolerance and phenology as well as between frost tolerance and distribution range across Central European tree species, we studied the frost hardiness of closed buds before bud burst and of freshly opened buds at the time of bud burst. We hypothesized that species with early bud burst and species distributed in eastern and northern areas were more frost tolerant than species with late bud burst and species distributed in western and southern areas. Frost hardiness was estimated by exposing twigs to 11 frost temperatures between -4 °C and -80 °C and by assessing tissue damage by the electrolyte leakage method. In contrast to our hypotheses, neither frost hardiness of closed buds nor frost hardiness of freshly opened buds were related to any variable describing species' macroclimatic niche. Furthermore, frost hardiness of freshly opened buds did not differ among species. Thus, the investigated species with early bud burst take higher risks of frost damage than the species with late bud bursts. These findings indicate that frost hardiness might not play the key role in limiting the geographic distribution ranges previously anticipated.

  15. Anti-icing/frosting and self-cleaning performance of superhydrophobic aluminum alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Libang; Yan, Zhongna; Shi, Xueting; Sultonzoda, Firdavs

    2018-02-01

    Ice formation and frost deposition on cryogenic equipment and systems can result in serious problems and huge economic loss. Hence, it is quite necessary to develop new materials to prevent icing and frosting on cold surfaces in engineering fields. Here, a superhydrophobic aluminum alloy with enhanced anti-frosting, anti-icing, and self-cleaning performance has been developed by a facile one-step method. The anti-frosting/icing performance of superhydrophobic aluminum alloys is confirmed by frosting/icing time delay, consolidating and freezing temperature reduction, and lower amount of frost/ice adhesion. Meanwhile, the excellent self-cleaning performance is authenticated by the fact that simulated pollution particles can be cleaned out by rolling water droplets completely. Finally, based on the classical nucleation theory, anti-icing and anti-frosting mechanisms of the superhydrophobic aluminum alloys are deduced. Results show that grounded on "air cushion" and "heat insulation" effect, a larger nucleation barrier and a lower crystal growth rate can be observed, which, hence, inhibit ice formation and frost deposition. It can be concluded that preparing superhydrophobic surfaces would be an effective strategy for improving anti-icing, anti-frosting, and self-cleaning performance of aluminum alloys.

  16. Distributed parallel computing in stochastic modeling of groundwater systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yanhui; Li, Guomin; Xu, Haizhen

    2013-03-01

    Stochastic modeling is a rapidly evolving, popular approach to the study of the uncertainty and heterogeneity of groundwater systems. However, the use of Monte Carlo-type simulations to solve practical groundwater problems often encounters computational bottlenecks that hinder the acquisition of meaningful results. To improve the computational efficiency, a system that combines stochastic model generation with MODFLOW-related programs and distributed parallel processing is investigated. The distributed computing framework, called the Java Parallel Processing Framework, is integrated into the system to allow the batch processing of stochastic models in distributed and parallel systems. As an example, the system is applied to the stochastic delineation of well capture zones in the Pinggu Basin in Beijing. Through the use of 50 processing threads on a cluster with 10 multicore nodes, the execution times of 500 realizations are reduced to 3% compared with those of a serial execution. Through this application, the system demonstrates its potential in solving difficult computational problems in practical stochastic modeling. © 2012, The Author(s). Groundwater © 2012, National Ground Water Association.

  17. Polygons in Seasonal Frost

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    8 February 2004 This Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) image shows a summertime scene in the south polar region of the red planet. A patch of bright frost--possibly water ice--is seen in the lower third of the image. Polygon patterns that have developed in the ice as it sublimes away can be seen; these are not evident in the defrosted surfaces, so they are thought to have formed in the frost. This image is located near 82.6oS, 352.5oW. Sunlight illuminates this scene from the upper left; the image covers an area 3 km (1.9 mi) wide.

  18. Morphological and genetic perspectives of peach fruit responses to spring frost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spring frost is one of the most unpredictable cropping factors in many peach production areas. A severe spring frost can wipe out an entire peach crop whereas a mild spring frost may naturally help thinning as is common practice in commercial peach production. The extent of frost damage depends on t...

  19. Marker-trait association analysis of frost tolerance of 672 worldwide pea (Pisum sativum L.) collections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Rong; Fang, Li; Yang, Tao; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Hu, Jinguo; Zhang, Hongyan; Han, Wenliang; Hua, Zeke; Hao, Junjie; Zong, Xuxiao

    2017-07-19

    Frost stress is one of the major abiotic stresses causing seedling death and yield reduction in winter pea. To improve the frost tolerance of pea, field evaluation of frost tolerance was conducted on 672 diverse pea accessions at three locations in Northern China in three growing seasons from 2013 to 2016 and marker-trait association analysis of frost tolerance were performed with 267 informative SSR markers in this study. Sixteen accessions were identified as the most winter-hardy for their ability to survive in all nine field experiments with a mean survival rate of 0.57, ranging from 0.41 to 0.75. Population structure analysis revealed a structured population of two sub-populations plus some admixtures in the 672 accessions. Association analysis detected seven markers that repeatedly had associations with frost tolerance in at least two different environments with two different statistical models. One of the markers is the functional marker EST1109 on LG VI which was predicted to co-localize with a gene involved in the metabolism of glycoproteins in response to chilling stress and may provide a novel mechanism of frost tolerance in pea. These winter-hardy germplasms and frost tolerance associated markers will play a vital role in marker-assisted breeding for winter-hardy pea cultivar.

  20. Uremic frost: a harbinger of impending renal failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saardi, Karl M; Schwartz, Robert A

    2016-01-01

    Uremic frost is a striking cutaneous finding seen in patients with severe kidney disease. Familiarity with this condition can be a life-saving signal to initiate urgent dialysis. Uremic frost generally occurs at blood urea nitrogen levels of approximately 200 mg/dl, although it may arise with less severe uremia. Recently confirmed urea transporters in the skin may play a role in the development of uremic frost. Alternatively, damage to the cutaneous microvasculature and pilosebaceous units, as seen in chronic kidney disease, could account for the high levels of urea deposited outside the skin. The treatment of uremic frost is largely aimed at correcting the underlying cause of uremia and the other life-threatening conditions associated with renal failure. © 2015 The International Society of Dermatology.

  1. Ground level air convection produces frost damage patterns in turfgrass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerson, Bruce J; Beier, Richard A; Martin, Dennis L

    2015-11-01

    Frost injury patterns are commonly observed on the warm-season turfgrass species bermudagrass (Cynodon species Rich.), zoysiagrass (Zoysia species Willd.), and buffalograss [Bouteloua dactyloides (Nutt.) J.T. Columbus] in cool-temperate and subtropical zones. Qualitative observations of these injury patterns are presented and discussed. A model for the formation of such patterns based on thermal instability and convection of air is presented. The characteristic length scale of the observed frost pattern injury requires a temperature profile that decreases with height from the soil to the turfgrass canopy surface followed by an increase in temperature with height above the turfgrass canopy. This is justified by extending the earth temperature theory to include a turf layer with atmosphere above it. Then the theory for a thermally unstable layer beneath a stable region by Ogura and Kondo is adapted to a turf layer to include different parameter values for pure air, as well as for turf, which is treated as a porous medium. The earlier porous medium model of Thompson and Daniels proposed to explain frost injury patterns is modified to give reasonable agreement with observed patterns.

  2. Ground level air convection produces frost damage patterns in turfgrass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerson, Bruce J.; Beier, Richard A.; Martin, Dennis L.

    2015-11-01

    Frost injury patterns are commonly observed on the warm-season turfgrass species bermudagrass ( Cynodon species Rich.), zoysiagrass ( Zoysia species Willd.), and buffalograss [ Bouteloua dactyloides (Nutt.) J.T. Columbus] in cool-temperate and subtropical zones. Qualitative observations of these injury patterns are presented and discussed. A model for the formation of such patterns based on thermal instability and convection of air is presented. The characteristic length scale of the observed frost pattern injury requires a temperature profile that decreases with height from the soil to the turfgrass canopy surface followed by an increase in temperature with height above the turfgrass canopy. This is justified by extending the earth temperature theory to include a turf layer with atmosphere above it. Then the theory for a thermally unstable layer beneath a stable region by Ogura and Kondo is adapted to a turf layer to include different parameter values for pure air, as well as for turf, which is treated as a porous medium. The earlier porous medium model of Thompson and Daniels proposed to explain frost injury patterns is modified to give reasonable agreement with observed patterns.

  3. Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott C; Christopher, Jack T; Frederiks, Troy M; Chenu, Karine

    2015-06-01

    Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on rain-fed wheat production was estimated across the Australian wheatbelt for 1957-2013 using a 0.05 ° gridded weather data set. Simulated yield outcomes at 60 key locations were compared with those for virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance. Over the last six decades, more frost events, later last frost day, and a significant increase in frost impact on yield were found in certain regions of the Australian wheatbelt, in particular in the South-East and West. Increasing trends in frost-related yield losses were simulated in regions where no significant trend of frost occurrence was observed, due to higher mean temperatures accelerating crop development and causing sensitive post-heading stages to occur earlier, during the frost risk period. Simulations indicated that with frost-tolerant lines the mean national yield could be improved by up to 20% through (i) reduced frost damage (~10% improvement) and (ii) the ability to use earlier sowing dates (adding a further 10% improvement). In the simulations, genotypes with an improved frost tolerance to temperatures 1 °C lower than the current 0 °C reference provided substantial benefit in most cropping regions, while greater tolerance (to 3 °C lower temperatures) brought further benefits in the East. The results indicate that breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance should remain a priority for the Australian wheat industry, despite warming climates. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology.

  4. Changing risk of spring frost damage in grapevines due to climate change? A case study in the Swiss Rhone Valley.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Michael; Fuhrer, Jürg; Holzkämper, Annelie

    2018-06-01

    Late spring frost is a severe risk during early plant development. It may cause important economic damage to grapevine production. In a warming climate, late frost risk either could decline due to the reduction in frost days and an advancement of the last day of frost or increase due to a more pronounced shift forward of the start of the active growing period of the plants. These possibilities were analyzed in a case study for two locations in the lower Swiss Rhone Valley (Sion, Aigle) where viticulture is an important part of agriculture. Twelve phenology models were calibrated for the developmental stage BBCH09 (bud burst) using measured or reconstructed temperature data for two vineyards in Changins (1958 to 2012) and Leytron (1977 to 2014) together with observed phenological data. The day of year (DOY) for BBCH09 was then modelled for the years 1951 to 2050 using the best performing phenology model in combination with ten downscaled and bias-corrected climate scenarios. A 100-day period starting with BBCH09 was defined, during which daily mean and minimum temperatures were used to calculate three frost risk indices in each year. These indices were compared between the periods 1961-1990 (reference) and 2021-2050 (climate change scenario). Based on the average of the ensemble of climate model chains, BBCH09 advanced by 9 (range 7-11) (Aigle) and 7 (range 5-8) (Sion) days between the two time periods, similar to the shift in the last day of frost. The separate results of the different model chains suggest that, in the near future, late spring frost risk may increase or decrease, depending on location and climate change projections. While for the reference, the risk is larger at the warmer site (Sion) compared to that at the cooler site (Aigle), for the period 2021-2050, small shifts in both phenology and occurrence of frost (i.e., days with daily minimum temperature below 0 °C) lead to a small decrease in frost risk at the warmer but an increase at the cooler

  5. Changing risk of spring frost damage in grapevines due to climate change? A case study in the Swiss Rhone Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Michael; Fuhrer, Jürg; Holzkämper, Annelie

    2018-01-01

    Late spring frost is a severe risk during early plant development. It may cause important economic damage to grapevine production. In a warming climate, late frost risk either could decline due to the reduction in frost days and an advancement of the last day of frost or increase due to a more pronounced shift forward of the start of the active growing period of the plants. These possibilities were analyzed in a case study for two locations in the lower Swiss Rhone Valley (Sion, Aigle) where viticulture is an important part of agriculture. Twelve phenology models were calibrated for the developmental stage BBCH09 (bud burst) using measured or reconstructed temperature data for two vineyards in Changins (1958 to 2012) and Leytron (1977 to 2014) together with observed phenological data. The day of year (DOY) for BBCH09 was then modelled for the years 1951 to 2050 using the best performing phenology model in combination with ten downscaled and bias-corrected climate scenarios. A 100-day period starting with BBCH09 was defined, during which daily mean and minimum temperatures were used to calculate three frost risk indices in each year. These indices were compared between the periods 1961-1990 (reference) and 2021-2050 (climate change scenario). Based on the average of the ensemble of climate model chains, BBCH09 advanced by 9 (range 7-11) (Aigle) and 7 (range 5-8) (Sion) days between the two time periods, similar to the shift in the last day of frost. The separate results of the different model chains suggest that, in the near future, late spring frost risk may increase or decrease, depending on location and climate change projections. While for the reference, the risk is larger at the warmer site (Sion) compared to that at the cooler site (Aigle), for the period 2021-2050, small shifts in both phenology and occurrence of frost (i.e., days with daily minimum temperature below 0 °C) lead to a small decrease in frost risk at the warmer but an increase at the cooler

  6. Stochastic lattice model of synaptic membrane protein domains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yiwei; Kahraman, Osman; Haselwandter, Christoph A

    2017-05-01

    Neurotransmitter receptor molecules, concentrated in synaptic membrane domains along with scaffolds and other kinds of proteins, are crucial for signal transmission across chemical synapses. In common with other membrane protein domains, synaptic domains are characterized by low protein copy numbers and protein crowding, with rapid stochastic turnover of individual molecules. We study here in detail a stochastic lattice model of the receptor-scaffold reaction-diffusion dynamics at synaptic domains that was found previously to capture, at the mean-field level, the self-assembly, stability, and characteristic size of synaptic domains observed in experiments. We show that our stochastic lattice model yields quantitative agreement with mean-field models of nonlinear diffusion in crowded membranes. Through a combination of analytic and numerical solutions of the master equation governing the reaction dynamics at synaptic domains, together with kinetic Monte Carlo simulations, we find substantial discrepancies between mean-field and stochastic models for the reaction dynamics at synaptic domains. Based on the reaction and diffusion properties of synaptic receptors and scaffolds suggested by previous experiments and mean-field calculations, we show that the stochastic reaction-diffusion dynamics of synaptic receptors and scaffolds provide a simple physical mechanism for collective fluctuations in synaptic domains, the molecular turnover observed at synaptic domains, key features of the observed single-molecule trajectories, and spatial heterogeneity in the effective rates at which receptors and scaffolds are recycled at the cell membrane. Our work sheds light on the physical mechanisms and principles linking the collective properties of membrane protein domains to the stochastic dynamics that rule their molecular components.

  7. STOCHASTIC CHARACTERISTICS AND MODELING OF RELATIVE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Test

    Results are highly accurate and promising for all models based on Lewis' criteria. ... hydrological cycle. Future increases in ... STOCHASTIC CHARACTERISTICS AND MODELING OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF OGUN BASIN, NIGERIA. 71 ...

  8. A probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input model construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan, Jiang; Zabaras, Nicholas

    2014-01-01

    Model reduction techniques have been widely used in modeling of high-dimensional stochastic input in uncertainty quantification tasks. However, the probabilistic modeling of random variables projected into reduced-order spaces presents a number of computational challenges. Due to the curse of dimensionality, the underlying dependence relationships between these random variables are difficult to capture. In this work, a probabilistic graphical model based approach is employed to learn the dependence by running a number of conditional independence tests using observation data. Thus a probabilistic model of the joint PDF is obtained and the PDF is factorized into a set of conditional distributions based on the dependence structure of the variables. The estimation of the joint PDF from data is then transformed to estimating conditional distributions under reduced dimensions. To improve the computational efficiency, a polynomial chaos expansion is further applied to represent the random field in terms of a set of standard random variables. This technique is combined with both linear and nonlinear model reduction methods. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input models. - Highlights: • Data-driven stochastic input models without the assumption of independence of the reduced random variables. • The problem is transformed to a Bayesian network structure learning problem. • Examples are given in flows in random media

  9. Deterministic and stochastic CTMC models from Zika disease transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zevika, Mona; Soewono, Edy

    2018-03-01

    Zika infection is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases in the world. Zika virus (ZIKV) is transmitted by many Aedes-type mosquitoes including Aedes aegypti. Pregnant women with the Zika virus are at risk of having a fetus or infant with a congenital defect and suffering from microcephaly. Here, we formulate a Zika disease transmission model using two approaches, a deterministic model and a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. The basic reproduction ratio is constructed from a deterministic model. Meanwhile, the CTMC stochastic model yields an estimate of the probability of extinction and outbreaks of Zika disease. Dynamical simulations and analysis of the disease transmission are shown for the deterministic and stochastic models.

  10. Weather Derivatives and Stochastic Modelling of Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Espen Benth

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a continuous-time autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics with volatility being the product of a seasonal function and a stochastic process. We use the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model for the stochastic volatility. The proposed temperature dynamics is flexible enough to model temperature data accurately, and at the same time being analytically tractable. Futures prices for commonly traded contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on indices like cooling- and heating-degree days and cumulative average temperatures are computed, as well as option prices on them.

  11. Stochastic Modeling Of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rafsanjani, Hesam Mirzaei; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    reliable components are needed for wind turbine. In this paper focus is on reliability of critical components in drivetrain such as bearings and shafts. High failure rates of these components imply a need for more reliable components. To estimate the reliability of these components, stochastic models...... are needed for initial defects and damage accumulation. In this paper, stochastic models are formulated considering some of the failure modes observed in these components. The models are based on theoretical considerations, manufacturing uncertainties, size effects of different scales. It is illustrated how...

  12. Spectral discrimination of giant reed (Arundo donax L.): A seasonal study in riparian areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Aguiar, Francisca C.; Silva, João M. N.; Ferreira, Maria Teresa; Pereira, José M. C.

    2013-06-01

    The giant reed (Arundo donax L.) is amongst the one hundred worst invasive alien species of the world, and it is responsible for biodiversity loss and failure of ecosystem functions in riparian habitats. In this work, field spectroradiometry was used to assess the spectral separability of the giant reed from the adjacent vegetation and from the common reed, a native similar species. The study was conducted at different phenological periods and also for the giant reed stands regenerated after mechanical cutting (giant reed_RAC). A hierarchical procedure using Kruskal-Wallis test followed by Classification and Regression Trees (CART) was used to select the minimum number of optimal bands that discriminate the giant reed from the adjacent vegetation. A new approach was used to identify sets of wavelengths - wavezones - that maximize the spectral separability beyond the minimum number of optimal bands. Jeffries Matusita and Bhattacharya distance were used to evaluate the spectral separability using the minimum optimal bands and in three simulated satellite images, namely Landsat, IKONOS and SPOT. Giant reed was spectrally separable from the adjacent vegetation, both at the vegetative and the senescent period, exception made to the common reed at the vegetative period. The red edge region was repeatedly selected, although the visible region was also important to separate the giant reed from the herbaceous vegetation and the mid infrared region to the discrimination from the woody vegetation. The highest separability was obtained for the giant reed_RAC stands, due to its highly homogeneous, dense and dark-green stands. Results are discussed by relating the phenological, morphological and structural features of the giant reed stands and the adjacent vegetation with their optical traits. Weaknesses and strengths of the giant reed spectral discrimination are highlighted and implications of imagery selection for mapping purposes are argued based on present results.

  13. Applied stochastic modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Morgan, Byron JT; Tanner, Martin Abba; Carlin, Bradley P

    2008-01-01

    Introduction and Examples Introduction Examples of data sets Basic Model Fitting Introduction Maximum-likelihood estimation for a geometric model Maximum-likelihood for the beta-geometric model Modelling polyspermy Which model? What is a model for? Mechanistic models Function Optimisation Introduction MATLAB: graphs and finite differences Deterministic search methods Stochastic search methods Accuracy and a hybrid approach Basic Likelihood ToolsIntroduction Estimating standard errors and correlations Looking at surfaces: profile log-likelihoods Confidence regions from profiles Hypothesis testing in model selectionScore and Wald tests Classical goodness of fit Model selection biasGeneral Principles Introduction Parameterisation Parameter redundancy Boundary estimates Regression and influence The EM algorithm Alternative methods of model fitting Non-regular problemsSimulation Techniques Introduction Simulating random variables Integral estimation Verification Monte Carlo inference Estimating sampling distributi...

  14. Evaluation of the impact of frost resistances on potential altitudinal limit of trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charrier, Guillaume; Cochard, Hervé; Améglio, Thierry

    2013-09-01

    Winter physiology of woody plants is a key issue in temperate biomes. Here, we investigated different frost resistance mechanisms on 1-year-old branches of 11 European tree species from November until budburst: (i) frost hardiness of living cells (by electrolyte leakage method), (ii) winter embolism sensitivity (by percentage loss of conductivity: PLC) and (iii) phenological variation of budburst (by thermal time to budburst). These ecophysiological traits were analyzed according to the potential altitudinal limit, which is highly related to frost exposure. Seasonal frost hardiness and PLC changes are relatively different across species. Maximal PLC observed in winter (PLCMax) was the factor most closely related to potential altitudinal limit. Moreover, PLCMax was related to the mean hydraulic diameter of vessels (indicating embolism sensitivity) and to osmotic compounds (indicating ability of living cells to refill xylem conducting elements). Winter embolism formation seems to be counterbalanced by active refilling from living cells. These results enabled us to model potential altitudinal limit according to three of the physiological/anatomical parameters studied. Monitoring different frost resistance strategies brings new insights to our understanding of the altitudinal limits of trees.

  15. On changes of measure in stochastic volatility models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard Wong

    2006-01-01

    models. This had led many researchers to “assume the condition away,” even though the condition is not innocuous, and nonsensical results can occur if it is in fact not satisfied. We provide an applicable theorem to check the conditions for a general class of Markovian stochastic volatility models. As an example we will also provide a detailed analysis of the Stein and Stein and Heston stochastic volatility models.

  16. Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect to cervical cancer growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni binti; Rosli, Norhayati binti; Bahar, Arifah

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a Gompertzian stochastic model with time delay is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of cervical cancer growth. Low values of Mean-Square Error (MSE) of Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect indicate good fits

  17. Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect to cervical cancer growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni binti; Rosli, Norhayati binti [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor and UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)

    2015-02-03

    In this paper, a Gompertzian stochastic model with time delay is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of cervical cancer growth. Low values of Mean-Square Error (MSE) of Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect indicate good fits.

  18. Stochastic Modelling, Analysis, and Simulations of the Solar Cycle Dynamic Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Douglas C.; Ladde, Gangaram S.

    2018-03-01

    Analytical solutions, discretization schemes and simulation results are presented for the time delay deterministic differential equation model of the solar dynamo presented by Wilmot-Smith et al. In addition, this model is extended under stochastic Gaussian white noise parametric fluctuations. The introduction of stochastic fluctuations incorporates variables affecting the dynamo process in the solar interior, estimation error of parameters, and uncertainty of the α-effect mechanism. Simulation results are presented and analyzed to exhibit the effects of stochastic parametric volatility-dependent perturbations. The results generalize and extend the work of Hazra et al. In fact, some of these results exhibit the oscillatory dynamic behavior generated by the stochastic parametric additative perturbations in the absence of time delay. In addition, the simulation results of the modified stochastic models influence the change in behavior of the very recently developed stochastic model of Hazra et al.

  19. SO2 frost - UV-visible reflectivity and Io surface coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, D. B.; Fanale, F. P.; Nelson, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    The reflectance spectrum in the range 0.24-0.85 microns of SO2 frost is measured in light of the discovery of SO2 gas in the atmosphere of Io and the possible discovery of the frost on its surface. Frost deposits up to 1.5 mm thick were grown in vacuum at 130 K and bi-directional reflectance spectra were obtained. Typical SO2 frost is found to exhibit very low reflectivity (2-5%) at 0.30 microns, rising steeply at 0.32 microns to attain a maximum reflectivity (75-80%) at 4.0 microns and uniformly high reflectivity throughout the visible and near infrared. Comparison with the full disk spectrum of Io reveals that no more than 20% of the surface can be covered with optically thick SO2 frost. Combinations of surface materials including SO2 frost which can produce the observed spectrum are indicated.

  20. Stochastic models of the Social Security trust funds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burdick, Clark; Manchester, Joyce

    Each year in March, the Board of Trustees of the Social Security trust funds reports on the current and projected financial condition of the Social Security programs. Those programs, which pay monthly benefits to retired workers and their families, to the survivors of deceased workers, and to disabled workers and their families, are financed through the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds. In their 2003 report, the Trustees present, for the first time, results from a stochastic model of the combined OASDI trust funds. Stochastic modeling is an important new tool for Social Security policy analysis and offers the promise of valuable new insights into the financial status of the OASDI trust funds and the effects of policy changes. The results presented in this article demonstrate that several stochastic models deliver broadly consistent results even though they use very different approaches and assumptions. However, they also show that the variation in trust fund outcomes differs as the approach and assumptions are varied. Which approach and assumptions are best suited for Social Security policy analysis remains an open question. Further research is needed before the promise of stochastic modeling is fully realized. For example, neither parameter uncertainty nor variability in ultimate assumption values is recognized explicitly in the analyses. Despite this caveat, stochastic modeling results are already shedding new light on the range and distribution of trust fund outcomes that might occur in the future.

  1. Frost heave susceptibility of saturated soil under constant rate of freezing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryokai, K.; Iguro, M.; Yoneyama, K.

    Introduced are the results of experiments carried out to quantitatively obtain the frost heave pressure and displacement of soil subjected to artificial freezing or freezing around in-ground liquefied natural gas storage tanks. This experiment is conducted to evaluate the frost heave susceptibility of saturated soil under overconsolidation. In other words, this experiment was carried out to obtain the relation of the over-burden pressure and freezing rate to the frost heave ratio by observing the frost heave displacement and freezing time of specimens by freezing the specimens at a constant freezing rate under a constant overburden pressure, while letting water freely flow in and out of the system. Introduced are the procedures for frost heave test required to quantitatively obtain the frost heave displacement and pressure of soil. Furthermore, the relation between the frost heave susceptibility and physical properties of soil obtained by this test is reported.

  2. Engine Cycle Analysis of Air Breathing Microwave Rocket with Reed Valves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukunari, Masafumi; Komatsu, Reiji; Yamaguchi, Toshikazu; Komurasaki, Kimiya; Arakawa, Yoshihiro; Katsurayama, Hiroshi

    2011-01-01

    The Microwave Rocket is a candidate for a low cost launcher system. Pulsed plasma generated by a high power millimeter wave beam drives a blast wave, and a vehicle acquires impulsive thrust by exhausting the blast wave. The thrust generation process of the Microwave Rocket is similar to a pulse detonation engine. In order to enhance the performance of its air refreshment, the air-breathing mechanism using reed valves is under development. Ambient air is taken to the thruster through reed valves. Reed valves are closed while the inside pressure is high enough. After the time when the shock wave exhausts at the open end, an expansion wave is driven and propagates to the thrust-wall. The reed valve is opened by the negative gauge pressure induced by the expansion wave and its reflection wave. In these processes, the pressure oscillation is important parameter. In this paper, the pressure oscillation in the thruster was calculated by CFD combined with the flux through from reed valves, which is estimated analytically. As a result, the air-breathing performance is evaluated using Partial Filling Rate (PFR), the ratio of thruster length to diameter L/D, and ratio of opening area of reed valves to superficial area α. An engine cycle and predicted thrust was explained.

  3. Frost resistance of fibre reinforced concrete structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan De Place

    1999-01-01

    Frost resistance of fibre reinforced concrete with 2.5-4.2% air and 6-9% air (% by volume in fresh concrete) casted in the laboratory and in-situ is compared. Steel fibres with hooked ends (ZP, length 30 mm) and polypropylene fibres (PP, CS, length 12 mm) are applied. It is shown that· addition...... of 0.4-1% by volume of fibres cannot replace air entrainment in order to secure a frost resistant concrete; the minimum amount of air needed to make the concrete frost resistant is not changed when adding fibres· the amount of air entrainment must be increased when fibres are added to establish...

  4. Biochemical Network Stochastic Simulator (BioNetS: software for stochastic modeling of biochemical networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elston Timothy C

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Intrinsic fluctuations due to the stochastic nature of biochemical reactions can have large effects on the response of biochemical networks. This is particularly true for pathways that involve transcriptional regulation, where generally there are two copies of each gene and the number of messenger RNA (mRNA molecules can be small. Therefore, there is a need for computational tools for developing and investigating stochastic models of biochemical networks. Results We have developed the software package Biochemical Network Stochastic Simulator (BioNetS for efficientlyand accurately simulating stochastic models of biochemical networks. BioNetS has a graphical user interface that allows models to be entered in a straightforward manner, and allows the user to specify the type of random variable (discrete or continuous for each chemical species in the network. The discrete variables are simulated using an efficient implementation of the Gillespie algorithm. For the continuous random variables, BioNetS constructs and numerically solvesthe appropriate chemical Langevin equations. The software package has been developed to scale efficiently with network size, thereby allowing large systems to be studied. BioNetS runs as a BioSpice agent and can be downloaded from http://www.biospice.org. BioNetS also can be run as a stand alone package. All the required files are accessible from http://x.amath.unc.edu/BioNetS. Conclusions We have developed BioNetS to be a reliable tool for studying the stochastic dynamics of large biochemical networks. Important features of BioNetS are its ability to handle hybrid models that consist of both continuous and discrete random variables and its ability to model cell growth and division. We have verified the accuracy and efficiency of the numerical methods by considering several test systems.

  5. Electricity Market Stochastic Dynamic Model and Its Mean Stability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanhui Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the deterministic dynamic model of electricity market proposed by Alvarado, a stochastic electricity market model, considering the random nature of demand sides, is presented in this paper on the assumption that generator cost function and consumer utility function are quadratic functions. The stochastic electricity market model is a generalization of the deterministic dynamic model. Using the theory of stochastic differential equations, stochastic process theory, and eigenvalue techniques, the determining conditions of the mean stability for this electricity market model under small Gauss type random excitation are provided and testified theoretically. That is, if the demand elasticity of suppliers is nonnegative and the demand elasticity of consumers is negative, then the stochastic electricity market model is mean stable. It implies that the stability can be judged directly by initial data without any computation. Taking deterministic electricity market data combined with small Gauss type random excitation as numerical samples to interpret random phenomena from a statistical perspective, the results indicate the conclusions above are correct, valid, and practical.

  6. Spring frost vulnerability of sweet cherries under controlled conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matzneller, Philipp; Götz, Klaus-P; Chmielewski, Frank-M

    2016-01-01

    Spring frost is a significant production hazard in nearly all temperate fruit-growing regions. Sweet cherries are among the first fruit varieties starting their development in spring and therefore highly susceptible to late frost. Temperatures at which injuries are likely to occur are widely published, but their origin and determination methods are not well documented. In this study, a standardized method was used to investigate critical frost temperatures for the sweet cherry cultivar 'Summit' under controlled conditions. Twigs were sampled at four development stages ("side green," "green tip," "open cluster," "full bloom") and subjected to three frost temperatures (-2.5, -5.0, -10.0 °C). The main advantage of this method, compared to other approaches, was that the exposition period and the time interval required to reach the target temperature were always constant (2 h). Furthermore, then, the twigs were placed in a climate chamber until full bloom, before the examination of the flowers and not further developed buds started. For the first two sampling stages (side green, green tip), the number of buds found in open cluster, "first white," and full bloom at the evaluation date decreased with the strength of the frost treatment. The flower organs showed different levels of cold hardiness and became more vulnerable in more advanced development stages. In this paper, we developed four empirical functions which allow calculating possible frost damages on sweet cherry buds or flowers at the investigated development stages. These equations can help farmers to estimate possible frost damages on cherry buds due to frost events. However, it is necessary to validate the critical temperatures obtained in laboratory with some field observations.

  7. Spring frost vulnerability of sweet cherries under controlled conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matzneller, Philipp; Götz, Klaus-P.; Chmielewski, Frank-M.

    2016-01-01

    Spring frost is a significant production hazard in nearly all temperate fruit-growing regions. Sweet cherries are among the first fruit varieties starting their development in spring and therefore highly susceptible to late frost. Temperatures at which injuries are likely to occur are widely published, but their origin and determination methods are not well documented. In this study, a standardized method was used to investigate critical frost temperatures for the sweet cherry cultivar `Summit' under controlled conditions. Twigs were sampled at four development stages ("side green," "green tip," "open cluster," "full bloom") and subjected to three frost temperatures (-2.5, -5.0, -10.0 °C). The main advantage of this method, compared to other approaches, was that the exposition period and the time interval required to reach the target temperature were always constant (2 h). Furthermore, then, the twigs were placed in a climate chamber until full bloom, before the examination of the flowers and not further developed buds started. For the first two sampling stages (side green, green tip), the number of buds found in open cluster, "first white," and full bloom at the evaluation date decreased with the strength of the frost treatment. The flower organs showed different levels of cold hardiness and became more vulnerable in more advanced development stages. In this paper, we developed four empirical functions which allow calculating possible frost damages on sweet cherry buds or flowers at the investigated development stages. These equations can help farmers to estimate possible frost damages on cherry buds due to frost events. However, it is necessary to validate the critical temperatures obtained in laboratory with some field observations.

  8. Aspects if stochastic models for short-term hydropower scheduling and bidding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belsnes, Michael Martin [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway); Follestad, Turid [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway); Wolfgang, Ove [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway); Fosso, Olav B. [Dep. of electric power engineering NTNU, Trondheim (Norway)

    2012-07-01

    This report discusses challenges met when turning from deterministic to stochastic decision support models for short-term hydropower scheduling and bidding. The report describes characteristics of the short-term scheduling and bidding problem, different market and bidding strategies, and how a stochastic optimization model can be formulated. A review of approaches for stochastic short-term modelling and stochastic modelling for the input variables inflow and market prices is given. The report discusses methods for approximating the predictive distribution of uncertain variables by scenario trees. Benefits of using a stochastic over a deterministic model are illustrated by a case study, where increased profit is obtained to a varying degree depending on the reservoir filling and price structure. Finally, an approach for assessing the effect of using a size restricted scenario tree to approximate the predictive distribution for stochastic input variables is described. The report is a summary of the findings of Work package 1 of the research project #Left Double Quotation Mark#Optimal short-term scheduling of wind and hydro resources#Right Double Quotation Mark#. The project aims at developing a prototype for an operational stochastic short-term scheduling model. Based on the investigations summarized in the report, it is concluded that using a deterministic equivalent formulation of the stochastic optimization problem is convenient and sufficient for obtaining a working prototype. (author)

  9. Characterizing economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specifi cation search

    OpenAIRE

    Grassi, Stefano; Proietti, Tommaso

    2010-01-01

    We apply a recently proposed Bayesian model selection technique, known as stochastic model specification search, for characterising the nature of the trend in macroeconomic time series. We illustrate that the methodology can be quite successfully applied to discriminate between stochastic and deterministic trends. In particular, we formulate autoregressive models with stochastic trends components and decide on whether a specific feature of the series, i.e. the underlying level and/or the rate...

  10. Frost-covered dunes

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    MOC image of dunes in Chasma Boreale, a giant trough in the north polar cap. This September 1998 view shows dark sand emergent from beneath a veneer of bright frost left over from the northern winter that ended in July 1998.

  11. Index Option Pricing Models with Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, G.J.; van der Sluis, P.J.

    2000-01-01

    This paper specifies a multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) model for the S&P500 index and spot interest rate processes. We first estimate the multivariate SV model via the efficient method of moments (EMM) technique based on observations of underlying state variables, and then investigate the

  12. Dynamic optimization deterministic and stochastic models

    CERN Document Server

    Hinderer, Karl; Stieglitz, Michael

    2016-01-01

    This book explores discrete-time dynamic optimization and provides a detailed introduction to both deterministic and stochastic models. Covering problems with finite and infinite horizon, as well as Markov renewal programs, Bayesian control models and partially observable processes, the book focuses on the precise modelling of applications in a variety of areas, including operations research, computer science, mathematics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance. Dynamic Optimization is a carefully presented textbook which starts with discrete-time deterministic dynamic optimization problems, providing readers with the tools for sequential decision-making, before proceeding to the more complicated stochastic models. The authors present complete and simple proofs and illustrate the main results with numerous examples and exercises (without solutions). With relevant material covered in four appendices, this book is completely self-contained.

  13. Frost in Charitum Montes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-01-01

    MGS MOC Release No. MOC2-387, 10 June 2003This is a Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) wide angle view of the Charitum Montes, south of Argyre Planitia, in early June 2003. The seasonal south polar frost cap, composed of carbon dioxide, has been retreating southward through this area since spring began a month ago. The bright features toward the bottom of this picture are surfaces covered by frost. The picture is located near 57oS, 43oW. North is at the top, south is at the bottom. Sunlight illuminates the scene from the upper left. The area shown is about 217 km (135 miles) wide.

  14. Stochastic models for atmospheric dispersion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2003-01-01

    Simple stochastic differential equation models have been applied by several researchers to describe the dispersion of tracer particles in the planetary atmospheric boundary layer and to form the basis for computer simulations of particle paths. To obtain the drift coefficient, empirical vertical...... positions close to the boundaries. Different rules have been suggested in the literature with justifications based on simulation studies. Herein the relevant stochastic differential equation model is formulated in a particular way. The formulation is based on the marginal transformation of the position...... velocity distributions that depend on height above the ground both with respect to standard deviation and skewness are substituted into the stationary Fokker/Planck equation. The particle position distribution is taken to be uniform *the well/mixed condition( and also a given dispersion coefficient...

  15. Hopf bifurcation of the stochastic model on business cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, J; Wang, H; Ge, G

    2008-01-01

    A stochastic model on business cycle was presented in thas paper. Simplifying the model through the quasi Hamiltonian theory, the Ito diffusion process was obtained. According to Oseledec multiplicative ergodic theory and singular boundary theory, the conditions of local and global stability were acquired. Solving the stationary FPK equation and analyzing the stationary probability density, the stochastic Hopf bifurcation was explained. The result indicated that the change of parameter awas the key factor to the appearance of the stochastic Hopf bifurcation

  16. Stochastic models for predicting pitting corrosion damage of HLRW containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henshall, G.A.

    1991-10-01

    Stochastic models for predicting aqueous pitting corrosion damage of high-level radioactive-waste containers are described. These models could be used to predict the time required for the first pit to penetrate a container and the increase in the number of breaches at later times, both of which would be useful in the repository system performance analysis. Monte Carlo implementations of the stochastic models are described, and predictions of induction time, survival probability and pit depth distributions are presented. These results suggest that the pit nucleation probability decreases with exposure time and that pit growth may be a stochastic process. The advantages and disadvantages of the stochastic approach, methods for modeling the effects of environment, and plans for future work are discussed

  17. Enzymatic Saccharification and Ethanol Fermentation of Reed Pretreated with Liquid Hot Water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Lu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Reed is a widespread-growing, inexpensive, and readily available lignocellulosic material source in northeast China. The objective of this study is to evaluate the liquid hot water (LHW pretreatment efficiency of reed based on the enzymatic digestibility and ethanol fermentability of water-insoluble solids (WISs from reed after the LHW pretreatment. Several variables in the LHW pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis process were optimized. The conversion of glucan to glucose and glucose concentrations are considered as response variables in different conditions. The optimum conditions for the LHW pretreatment of reed area temperature of 180°C for 20min and a solid-to-liquid ratio of 1 : 10. These optimum conditions for the LHW pretreatment of reed resulted in a cellulose conversion rate of 82.59% in the subsequent enzymatic hydrolysis at 50°C for 72 h with a cellulase loading of 30 filter paper unit per gram of oven-dried WIS. Increasing the pretreatment temperature resulted in a higher enzymatic digestibility of the WIS from reed. Separate hydrolysis and fermentation of WIS showed that the conversion of glucan to ethanol reached 99.5% of the theoretical yield. The LHW pretreatment of reed is a suitable method to acquire a high recovery of fermentable sugars and high ethanol conversion yield.

  18. Brain-inspired Stochastic Models and Implementations

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Shedivat, Maruan

    2015-05-12

    One of the approaches to building artificial intelligence (AI) is to decipher the princi- ples of the brain function and to employ similar mechanisms for solving cognitive tasks, such as visual perception or natural language understanding, using machines. The recent breakthrough, named deep learning, demonstrated that large multi-layer networks of arti- ficial neural-like computing units attain remarkable performance on some of these tasks. Nevertheless, such artificial networks remain to be very loosely inspired by the brain, which rich structures and mechanisms may further suggest new algorithms or even new paradigms of computation. In this thesis, we explore brain-inspired probabilistic mechanisms, such as neural and synaptic stochasticity, in the context of generative models. The two questions we ask here are: (i) what kind of models can describe a neural learning system built of stochastic components? and (ii) how can we implement such systems e ̆ciently? To give specific answers, we consider two well known models and the corresponding neural architectures: the Naive Bayes model implemented with a winner-take-all spiking neural network and the Boltzmann machine implemented in a spiking or non-spiking fashion. We propose and analyze an e ̆cient neuromorphic implementation of the stochastic neu- ral firing mechanism and study the e ̄ects of synaptic unreliability on learning generative energy-based models implemented with neural networks.

  19. Passive anti-frosting surfaces using microscopic ice arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadi, Farzad; Nath, Saurabh; Iliff, Grady; Boreyko, Jonathan

    2017-11-01

    Despite exceptional advances in surface chemistry and micro/nanofabrication, no engineered surface has been able to passively suppress the in-plane growth of frost occurring in humid, subfreezing environments. Motivated by this, and inspired by the fact that ice itself can evaporate nearby liquid water droplets, we present a passive anti-frosting surface in which the majority of the surface remains dry indefinitely. We fabricated an aluminum surface exhibiting an array of small metallic fins, where a wicking micro-groove was laser-cut along the top of each fin to produce elevated water ``stripes'' that freeze into ice. As the saturation vapor pressure of ice is less than that of supercooled liquid water, the ice stripes serve as overlapping humidity sinks that siphon all nearby moisture from the air and prevent condensation and frost from forming anywhere else on the surface. Our experimental results show that regions between stripes remain dry even after 24 hours of operation under humid and supercooled conditions. We believe that the presented anti-frosting technology has the potential to help solve the world's multi-billion dollar frosting problem that adversely affects transportation, power generation, and HVAC systems.

  20. The conditions for use of reed canary grass briquettes and chopped reed canary grass in small heating plants; Foerutsaettningar foer anvaendning av roerflensbriketter och hackad roerflen i mindre vaermecentraler

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulrud, Susanne; Davidsson, Kent; Holmgren, Magnus A. (Swedish National Testing and Research Inst., Boraas (Sweden)); Hedman, Henry; Oehman, Rikard; Leffler, Joel (ETC, Piteaa (Sweden))

    2010-09-15

    The aim of this study was to test fuel blends of briquettes and chopped reed canary grass in three existing heating plants (50 kW - 500 kW) and elucidate the requirements for good performance and low emissions. In addition, the study investigated production of reed canary grass briquettes using a Polish screw press developed for straw. Some tests with a bale shredder were also undertaken. The screw press technique is of interest for reed canary grass because it is a simple technique, easy to handle, developed for small scale production, and for straw. The test with reed canary grass in this study showed that the technique worked well but that further adjustments and a longer test period are needed in order to achieve higher bulk density and mechanical strength. The test with chopped reed canary grass shows that a system with a forage harvester is slightly more effective than baling and cutting in a bale shredder. The study concluded that few existing heating plants of size 50 kW-1 MW that currently use wood fuels will be able to use reed canary grass without adjustment, conversion or replacement of the combustion equipment. Reed canary grass has 15-20 times higher ash content than wood briquettes and 2-3 times higher ash content than forest residue; the combustion equipment must be able to handle these properties. The boiler must be equipped with a continuously operating ashing system and it must be possible to move the ash bed mechanically. There is a risk of high content of unburned matter if the residence time in the boiler is too short, due to the structure and low bulk density of the reed canary grass ash. Using a blend of wood briquettes and reed canary briquettes results in lower ash content, but also affects the ash chemistry and tends to lower the initial ash fusion temperature compared to using 100 % reed canary grass. Blending chopped reed canary grass and wood chips in an existing small scale heating plant also requires measures to achieve an even fuel

  1. Stochastic models to simulate paratuberculosis in dairy herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Weber, M.F.; Kudahl, Anne Margrethe Braad

    2011-01-01

    Stochastic simulation models are widely accepted as a means of assessing the impact of changes in daily management and the control of different diseases, such as paratuberculosis, in dairy herds. This paper summarises and discusses the assumptions of four stochastic simulation models and their use...... the models are somewhat different in their underlying principles and do put slightly different values on the different strategies, their overall findings are similar. Therefore, simulation models may be useful in planning paratuberculosis strategies in dairy herds, although as with all models caution...

  2. Stochastic population oscillations in spatial predator-prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taeuber, Uwe C

    2011-01-01

    It is well-established that including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions invalidates the classical deterministic Lotka-Volterra picture of neutral population cycles. In contrast, stochastic models yield long-lived, but ultimately decaying erratic population oscillations, which can be understood through a resonant amplification mechanism for density fluctuations. In Monte Carlo simulations of spatial stochastic predator-prey systems, one observes striking complex spatio-temporal structures. These spreading activity fronts induce persistent correlations between predators and prey. In the presence of local particle density restrictions (finite prey carrying capacity), there exists an extinction threshold for the predator population. The accompanying continuous non-equilibrium phase transition is governed by the directed-percolation universality class. We employ field-theoretic methods based on the Doi-Peliti representation of the master equation for stochastic particle interaction models to (i) map the ensuing action in the vicinity of the absorbing state phase transition to Reggeon field theory, and (ii) to quantitatively address fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the population oscillation frequency, damping, and diffusion coefficients in the species coexistence phase.

  3. Mapping of reed in shallow bays. SFR-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stroemgren, Maarten; Lindgren, Fredrik (Umeaa Univ. (Sweden))

    2011-03-15

    The regolith-lake development model (RLDM) describes the development of shallow bays to lakes and the infilling of lakes in the Forsmark area during an interglacial. The sensitivity analysis has shown the need for an update of the infill procedure in the RLDM. Data from the mapping of reed in shallow bays in the Forsmark area will be used to improve the infill procedure of an updated RLDM. The field work was performed in August 26-31, 2010. The mapping of reed was done in 124 points. In these points, coordinates and water depth were mapped using an echo sounder and a DGPS. Quaternary deposits and the thickness of soft sediments were mapped using an earth probe. Measurement points were delivered in ESRI shape format with coordinates in RT90 2.5 gon W and altitudes in the RHB70 system for storage in SKB's GIS data base

  4. Heat transfer from a tube immersed in a fluidized bed with frosting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torikoshi, K.; Kawabata, K.; Yamashita, H.

    1990-01-01

    Heat-transfer and flow-visualization experiments were performed for a single cooled tube immersed horizontally in a fluidized bed under frosting conditions. Measurements were made from local and average heat-transfer coefficients around the cooled tube surface. Glass beads having nominal diameters of 0.43 mm, 0.89 mm, and 1.6 mm were employed as the bed material. The 30 mm diameter tube was located 100 mm above the distributor. All the results obtained under frosting conditions were for an air temperature of about 5 degrees C and an air relative humidity of about 80 percent. The heat-transfer coefficient with frosting evaluated in this investigation includes the heat-transfer coefficient from the frost surface to the bed and the thermal resistance of the frost layer. Comparisons are made to heat-transfer data without frosting. The heat transfer is found to be larger with frosting than without frosting under the fluidization state

  5. Linking agent-based models and stochastic models of financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Ling; Li, Baowen; Podobnik, Boris; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H Eugene

    2012-05-29

    It is well-known that financial asset returns exhibit fat-tailed distributions and long-term memory. These empirical features are the main objectives of modeling efforts using (i) stochastic processes to quantitatively reproduce these features and (ii) agent-based simulations to understand the underlying microscopic interactions. After reviewing selected empirical and theoretical evidence documenting the behavior of traders, we construct an agent-based model to quantitatively demonstrate that "fat" tails in return distributions arise when traders share similar technical trading strategies and decisions. Extending our behavioral model to a stochastic model, we derive and explain a set of quantitative scaling relations of long-term memory from the empirical behavior of individual market participants. Our analysis provides a behavioral interpretation of the long-term memory of absolute and squared price returns: They are directly linked to the way investors evaluate their investments by applying technical strategies at different investment horizons, and this quantitative relationship is in agreement with empirical findings. Our approach provides a possible behavioral explanation for stochastic models for financial systems in general and provides a method to parameterize such models from market data rather than from statistical fitting.

  6. Design of Frost Resistant Pavement Structure Based on Road Weather Stations (RWSs Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrius Vaitkus

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Frost is a decisive factor influencing pavement performance in cold countries. In the EU, millions of euros are spent annually on winter maintenance. About one-third of the maintenance budget is allocated to rehabilitation due to the negative impact of frost. The negative effect of frost is restricted by using non-frost-susceptible materials within the frost zone and regulating water accumulation. However, experience shows that the thickness of constructed pavement structure is often inadequate and that frost penetrates into the subgrade of frost-susceptible materials. The aim of this paper is to introduce the thickness calculation approach of the frost resistant pavement structure using road weather station (RWS data. The subgrade susceptibility to frost and the number of equivalent single axle loads (ESALs are considered as factors too. The calculated thickness of the frost resistant pavement structure is corrected according to the specific local conditions. After performing a statistical analysis of 2012–2014 data pertaining to 26 RWSs, Lithuania was divided into four regions according to the maximum frost depths, where the maximum values depending on RWS location varied from 110.4 cm to 179.1 cm.

  7. Stochastic differential equation model to Prendiville processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granita; Bahar, Arifah

    2015-01-01

    The Prendiville process is another variation of the logistic model which assumes linearly decreasing population growth rate. It is a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) taking integer values in the finite interval. The continuous time Markov chain can be approximated by stochastic differential equation (SDE). This paper discusses the stochastic differential equation of Prendiville process. The work started with the forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain of Prendiville process. Then it was formulated in the form of a central-difference approximation. The approximation was then used in Fokker-Planck equation in relation to the stochastic differential equation of the Prendiville process. The explicit solution of the Prendiville process was obtained from the stochastic differential equation. Therefore, the mean and variance function of the Prendiville process could be easily found from the explicit solution

  8. Stochastic differential equation model to Prendiville processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Granita, E-mail: granitafc@gmail.com [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Malaysia (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Malaysia (Malaysia); UTM Center for Industrial & Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM) (Malaysia)

    2015-10-22

    The Prendiville process is another variation of the logistic model which assumes linearly decreasing population growth rate. It is a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) taking integer values in the finite interval. The continuous time Markov chain can be approximated by stochastic differential equation (SDE). This paper discusses the stochastic differential equation of Prendiville process. The work started with the forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain of Prendiville process. Then it was formulated in the form of a central-difference approximation. The approximation was then used in Fokker-Planck equation in relation to the stochastic differential equation of the Prendiville process. The explicit solution of the Prendiville process was obtained from the stochastic differential equation. Therefore, the mean and variance function of the Prendiville process could be easily found from the explicit solution.

  9. Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia); Salleh, Madihah Md [Department of Biotechnology Industry, Faculty of Biosciences and Bioengineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits.

  10. Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah; Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul; Salleh, Madihah Md

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits.

  11. Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah; Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul; Salleh, Madihah Md

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits

  12. Towards Model Checking Stochastic Process Algebra

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermanns, H.; Grieskamp, W.; Santen, T.; Katoen, Joost P.; Stoddart, B.; Meyer-Kayser, J.; Siegle, M.

    2000-01-01

    Stochastic process algebras have been proven useful because they allow behaviour-oriented performance and reliability modelling. As opposed to traditional performance modelling techniques, the behaviour- oriented style supports composition and abstraction in a natural way. However, analysis of

  13. Stochastic forward and inverse groundwater flow and solute transport modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, G.M.C.M.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: calibration, inverse modeling, stochastic modeling, nonlinear biodegradation, stochastic-convective, advective-dispersive, travel time, network design, non-Gaussian distribution, multimodal distribution, representers

    This thesis offers three new approaches that contribute

  14. Experimental measurements of the effects of frost formation on heat exchanger performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emery, A.F.; Siegel, B.L.

    1990-01-01

    Frost formation on compact heat exchangers can lead to reductions in heat transfer of the order of 50 to 75% and to substantial increases in pressure drop. These effects are dependent upon the spatial pattern of the frost deposition, the growth history of the frost, and the thicknesses of the frost. This paper describes a series of experiments to measure the effects of frost when cold air (260 - 273 K) is passing through the exchanger. It is found that the thermal performance is a function of time and specific humidity levels while the pressure is function only of the frost thickness and surface roughness

  15. Stochastic models for predicting environmental impact in aquatic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart-Oaten, A.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of stochastic predictions are discussed in relation to the environmental impacts of nuclear power plants on aquatic ecosystems. One purpose is to aid in making rational decisions about whether a power plant should be built, where, and how it should be designed. The other purpose is to check on the models themselves in the light of what eventually happens. The author discusses the role or statistical decision theory in the decision-making problem. Various types of stochastic models and their problems are presented. In addition some suggestions are made for generating usable stochastic models, and checking and improving on them. 12 references

  16. Self-jumping Mechanism of Melting Frost on Superhydrophobic Surfaces

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xiaolin; Chen, Huawei; Zhao, Zehui; Wang, Yamei; Liu, Hong; Zhang, Deyuan

    2017-01-01

    Frost accretion on surfaces may cause severe problems and the high-efficiency defrosting methods are still urgently needed in many application fields like heat transfer, optical and electric power system, etc. In this study, a nano-needle superhydrophobic surface is prepared and the frosting/defrosting experiments are conducted on it. Three steps are found in the defrosting process: melting frost shrinking and splitting, instantaneous self-triggered deforming followed by deformation-induced m...

  17. Effects of Surface Wettability on the Porosity and Wickability of Frost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Katherine; Ahmadi, Farzad; Boreyko, Jonathan

    2017-11-01

    The wicking of liquids through porous media has been studied for many materials, but never for frost, despite its implications for arctic oil spills and oil-infused surfaces. Here, we characterize silicone oils wicking up frost sheets. A layer of frost was grown on aluminum plates of varying surface wettability: superhydrophilic, hydrophilic, hydrophobic, and superhydrophobic. Once the desired frost thickness was grown, a humidity chamber was used to maintain the frost at the dew point and the bottom of the plate was dipped in a reservoir of fluorescent silicone oil. For all surfaces, the wicking rate of the oil increased with increasing wettability. For the wetting surfaces, this is manifested in the length vs. time data following the classical Washburn equation, exhibiting a power slope of about 1/2 and resulting in a larger effective pore radius with increasing wettability. However, we observed that on the non-wetting surfaces, the discrete distribution of the frosted dew droplets resulted in a new scaling law with a slope much less than 1/2, especially for the superhydrophobic surface which promoted jumping-droplet condensation. This research shows that the wicking of oil up a layer of frost can give insight into the morphology of frost. Conversely, if the underlying wettability of a frost sheet can be controlled, the spread of oil can be widely tuned. This work was supported by a Virginia Space Grant Consortium Undergraduate Research Scholarship (PMPTX7EP).

  18. Introduction to modeling and analysis of stochastic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Kulkarni, V G

    2011-01-01

    This is an introductory-level text on stochastic modeling. It is suited for undergraduate students in engineering, operations research, statistics, mathematics, actuarial science, business management, computer science, and public policy. It employs a large number of examples to teach the students to use stochastic models of real-life systems to predict their performance, and use this analysis to design better systems. The book is devoted to the study of important classes of stochastic processes: discrete and continuous time Markov processes, Poisson processes, renewal and regenerative processes, semi-Markov processes, queueing models, and diffusion processes. The book systematically studies the short-term and the long-term behavior, cost/reward models, and first passage times. All the material is illustrated with many examples, and case studies. The book provides a concise review of probability in the appendix. The book emphasizes numerical answers to the problems. A collection of MATLAB programs to accompany...

  19. Stochastic Averaging and Stochastic Extremum Seeking

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Shu-Jun

    2012-01-01

    Stochastic Averaging and Stochastic Extremum Seeking develops methods of mathematical analysis inspired by the interest in reverse engineering  and analysis of bacterial  convergence by chemotaxis and to apply similar stochastic optimization techniques in other environments. The first half of the text presents significant advances in stochastic averaging theory, necessitated by the fact that existing theorems are restricted to systems with linear growth, globally exponentially stable average models, vanishing stochastic perturbations, and prevent analysis over infinite time horizon. The second half of the text introduces stochastic extremum seeking algorithms for model-free optimization of systems in real time using stochastic perturbations for estimation of their gradients. Both gradient- and Newton-based algorithms are presented, offering the user the choice between the simplicity of implementation (gradient) and the ability to achieve a known, arbitrary convergence rate (Newton). The design of algorithms...

  20. An exploration of common reed (Phragmites australis bioenergy potential in North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Vaičekonytė

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In North America, reed (Phragmites australis is typically considered to be a weed although it provides important ecosystem services. Small, sparse, patchy or mixed reedbeds are more suitable as habitat for many species than extensive dense reedbeds, whose habitat functions can be enhanced by the selective removal of biomass. We propose that above-ground reed biomass could be harvested for bioenergy, at the same time improving habitat for biodiversity by thinning or fragmenting the more extensive reedbeds. Biofuel pellets manufactured from reeds harvested at Montréal (Canada had moisture content 6.4 %, energy content 16.9 kJ g-1 (dry mass, ash content 3.44 %, and chloride content 1962 ppm. Thus, reed as a material for fuel pellet manufacture is similar to switchgrass (Panicum virgatum, which is commonly cultivated for that purpose and requires higher inputs than harvested wild reed. We discuss these findings in the context of environmental considerations and conclude that the bioenergy potential of reed could most expediently be realised in North America by combining material harvested from the widespread spontaneously occurring reedbeds with organic waste from other sources to create mixed biofuels. However, reeds with high levels of chlorine, sulphur or metals should not be burned to avoid air pollution or equipment damage unless these problems are mitigated by means of appropriate season of harvest, equipment, combustion regime, or use of a mixed feedstock.

  1. Frost Effects Research Facility

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Full-scale study in controlled conditionsThe Frost Effects Research Facility (FERF) is the largest refrigerated warehouse in the United States that can be used for a...

  2. Predicting Footbridge Response using Stochastic Load Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Walking parameters such as step frequency, pedestrian mass, dynamic load factor, etc. are basically stochastic, although it is quite common to adapt deterministic models for these parameters. The present paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the action of pedestrians, but when doing so...... decisions need to be made in terms of statistical distributions of walking parameters and in terms of the parameters describing the statistical distributions. The paper explores how sensitive computations of bridge response are to some of the decisions to be made in this respect. This is useful...

  3. Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic Chemostat Model with Two Nutrients and One Microorganism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A new stochastic chemostat model with two substitutable nutrients and one microorganism is proposed and investigated. Firstly, for the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold for extinction and permanence of the microorganism is obtained by analyzing the stability of the equilibria. Then, for the stochastic model, the threshold of the stochastic chemostat for extinction and permanence of the microorganism is explored. Difference of the threshold of the deterministic model and the stochastic model shows that a large stochastic disturbance can affect the persistence of the microorganism and is harmful to the cultivation of the microorganism. To illustrate this phenomenon, we give some computer simulations with different intensity of stochastic noise disturbance.

  4. Frost induced damages within porous materials - from concrete technology to fuel cells technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palecki, Susanne; Gorelkov, Stanislav; Wartmann, Jens; Heinzel, Angelika

    2017-12-01

    Porous media like concrete or layers of membrane electrode assemblies (MEA) within fuel cells are affected by a cyclic frost exposure due to different damage mechanisms which could lead to essential degradation of the material. In general, frost damages can only occur in case of a specific material moisture content. In fuel cells, residual water is generally available after shut down inside the membrane i.e. the gas diffusion layer (GDL). During subsequent freezing, this could cause various damage phenomena such as frost heaves and delamination effects of the membrane electrode assembly, which depends on the location of pore water and on the pore structure itself. Porous materials possess a pore structure that could range over several orders of magnitudes with different properties and freezing behaviour of the pore water. Latter can be divided into macroscopic, structured and pre-structured water, influenced by surface interactions. Therefore below 0 °C different water modifications can coexist in a wide temperature range, so that during frost exposure a high amount of unfrozen and moveable water inside the pore system is still available. This induces transport mechanisms and shrinkage effects. The physical basics are similar for porous media. While the freezing behaviour of concrete has been studied over decades of years, in order to enhance the durability, the know-how about the influence of a frost attack on fuel cell systems is not fully understood to date. On the basis of frost damage models for concrete structures, an approach to describe the impact of cyclic freezing and thawing on membrane electrode assemblies has been developed within this research work. Major aim is beyond a better understanding of the frost induced mechanisms, the standardization of a suitable test procedure for the assessment of different MEA materials under such kind of attack. Within this contribution first results will be introduced.

  5. The distribution of water frost on Charon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buie, Marc W.; Shriver, Scott K.

    1994-01-01

    We present high-spatial-resolution imaging observations of the Pluto-Charon system taken with ProtoCAM on the Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF). Our dataset consists of measurements from eight nights at widely separated rotational longitudes and covering five wavelengths -- standard J, H, and K, plus two special narrow band filters at 1.5 and 1.75 microns. The relative flux contributions of Pluto and Charon were extracted, when possible, by fitting a two-source Gaussian image model to the observed images. At K, we find the Charon-Pluto magnitude difference to be on average 1.8 mag, somewhat less than the value of 2.2 mag found by Bosh et al. (1992). The average differential magnitude at 1.5 and 1.75 microns is 2.0 and 1.6, respectively. The larger magnitude difference at 1.5 microns is due to a water-frost absorption band on the surface of Charon. Our observations are consistent with a surface of Charon dominated by water frost at all longitudes.

  6. The Asymptotic Behaviour of a Stochastic 3D LANS-α Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caraballo, Tomas; Marquez-Duran, Antonio M.; Real, Jose

    2006-01-01

    The long-time behaviour of a stochastic 3D LANS-α model on a bounded domain is analysed. First, we reformulate the model as an abstract problem. Next, we establish sufficient conditions ensuring the existence of stationary (steady state) solutions of this abstract nonlinear stochastic evolution equation, and study the stability properties of the model. Finally, we analyse the effects produced by stochastic perturbations in the deterministic version of the system (persistence of exponential stability as well as possible stabilisation effects produced by the noise). The general results are applied to our stochastic LANS-α system throughout the paper

  7. Fitting PAC spectra with stochastic models: PolyPacFit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zacate, M. O., E-mail: zacatem1@nku.edu [Northern Kentucky University, Department of Physics and Geology (United States); Evenson, W. E. [Utah Valley University, College of Science and Health (United States); Newhouse, R.; Collins, G. S. [Washington State University, Department of Physics and Astronomy (United States)

    2010-04-15

    PolyPacFit is an advanced fitting program for time-differential perturbed angular correlation (PAC) spectroscopy. It incorporates stochastic models and provides robust options for customization of fits. Notable features of the program include platform independence and support for (1) fits to stochastic models of hyperfine interactions, (2) user-defined constraints among model parameters, (3) fits to multiple spectra simultaneously, and (4) any spin nuclear probe.

  8. Stochastic modelling of two-phase flows including phase change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurisse, O.; Minier, J.P.

    2011-01-01

    Stochastic modelling has already been developed and applied for single-phase flows and incompressible two-phase flows. In this article, we propose an extension of this modelling approach to two-phase flows including phase change (e.g. for steam-water flows). Two aspects are emphasised: a stochastic model accounting for phase transition and a modelling constraint which arises from volume conservation. To illustrate the whole approach, some remarks are eventually proposed for two-fluid models. (authors)

  9. A stochastic model for quantum measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budiyono, Agung

    2013-01-01

    We develop a statistical model of microscopic stochastic deviation from classical mechanics based on a stochastic process with a transition probability that is assumed to be given by an exponential distribution of infinitesimal stationary action. We apply the statistical model to stochastically modify a classical mechanical model for the measurement of physical quantities reproducing the prediction of quantum mechanics. The system+apparatus always has a definite configuration at all times, as in classical mechanics, fluctuating randomly following a continuous trajectory. On the other hand, the wavefunction and quantum mechanical Hermitian operator corresponding to the physical quantity arise formally as artificial mathematical constructs. During a single measurement, the wavefunction of the whole system+apparatus evolves according to a Schrödinger equation and the configuration of the apparatus acts as the pointer of the measurement so that there is no wavefunction collapse. We will also show that while the outcome of each single measurement event does not reveal the actual value of the physical quantity prior to measurement, its average in an ensemble of identical measurements is equal to the average of the actual value of the physical quantity prior to measurement over the distribution of the configuration of the system. (paper)

  10. The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

    2017-02-01

    Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

  11. Alternative Approaches to Technical Efficiency Estimation in the Stochastic Frontier Model

    OpenAIRE

    Acquah, H. de-Graft; Onumah, E. E.

    2014-01-01

    Estimating the stochastic frontier model and calculating technical efficiency of decision making units are of great importance in applied production economic works. This paper estimates technical efficiency from the stochastic frontier model using Jondrow, and Battese and Coelli approaches. In order to compare alternative methods, simulated data with sample sizes of 60 and 200 are generated from stochastic frontier model commonly applied to agricultural firms. Simulated data is employed to co...

  12. Frosted branch angiitis associated with rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gupta Amod

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Simultaneous occurrence of frosted branch angiitis and immune-mediated rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis is reported. The two diseases possibly share a common immune mechanism. Patients of frosted branch angiitis should undergo complete systemic evaluation including renal function tests even if the patient is systemically asymptomatic.

  13. Assemblage of filamentous fungi associated with aculeate hymenopteran brood in reed galls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heneberg, Petr; Bizos, Jiří; Čmoková, Adéla; Kolařík, Miroslav; Astapenková, Alena; Bogusch, Petr

    2016-01-01

    Monotypic stands of common reed and the reed-gall-associated insect assemblages are distributed worldwide. However, fungi associated with these assemblages have not been characterized in detail. Here we examined 5200 individuals (12 species) of immature aculeate hymenopterans or their parasitoids collected at 34 sampling sites in Central Europe. We noticed fungal outgrowth on exoskeletons of 83 (1.60%) larvae and pupae. The most common host was eudominant Pemphredon fabricii. However, the less abundant aculeate hymenopteran reed gall inquilines were infected at higher prevalence, these included Trypoxylon deceptorium, Trypoxylon minus, Hoplitis leucomelana and Hylaeus moricei (all considered new host records). We identified three fungal species, Penicillium buchwaldii (72% of cases), Aspergillus pseudoglaucus (22%) and Penicillium quebecense (6%). When multibrooded nests were affected, only a part of individuals was infected in 62% of cases. The sampling site-specific infection rate reached up to 13%, thus fungal infections should be considered an important variable driving the abundance of gall inquilines. Infections of generalist host species were more frequent than those of reed gall specialists, suggesting that suboptimal conditions decreased the immunocompetence of non-specialized species, which only occasionally nest in reed galls and feed in reed beds. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Stochastic Modelling of Shiroro River Stream flow Process

    OpenAIRE

    Musa, J. J

    2013-01-01

    Economists, social scientists and engineers provide insights into the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the options for adaptation and mitigation, and yet other scientists, including geographers and biologists, study the impacts of climate change. This project concentrates mainly on the discharge from the Shiroro River. A stochastic approach is presented for modeling a time series by an Autoregressive Moving Average model (ARMA). The development and use of a stochastic stream flow m...

  15. TIME-DEPENDENT STOCHASTIC ACCELERATION MODEL FOR FERMI BUBBLES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sasaki, Kento; Asano, Katsuaki; Terasawa, Toshio, E-mail: kentos@icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp, E-mail: asanok@icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp, E-mail: terasawa@icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8582 (Japan)

    2015-12-01

    We study stochastic acceleration models for the Fermi bubbles. Turbulence is excited just behind the shock front via Kelvin–Helmholtz, Rayleigh–Taylor, or Richtmyer–Meshkov instabilities, and plasma particles are continuously accelerated by the interaction with the turbulence. The turbulence gradually decays as it goes away from the shock fronts. Adopting a phenomenological model for the stochastic acceleration, we explicitly solve the temporal evolution of the particle energy distribution in the turbulence. Our results show that the spatial distribution of high-energy particles is different from those for a steady solution. We also show that the contribution of electrons that escaped from the acceleration regions significantly softens the photon spectrum. The photon spectrum and surface brightness profile are reproduced by our models. If the escape efficiency is very high, the radio flux from the escaped low-energy electrons can be comparable to that of the WMAP haze. We also demonstrate hadronic models with the stochastic acceleration, but they are unlikely in the viewpoint of the energy budget.

  16. Computer Aided Continuous Time Stochastic Process Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, N.R.; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2001-01-01

    A grey-box approach to process modelling that combines deterministic and stochastic modelling is advocated for identification of models for model-based control of batch and semi-batch processes. A computer-aided tool designed for supporting decision-making within the corresponding modelling cycle...

  17. Review of "Stochastic Modelling for Systems Biology" by Darren Wilkinson

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bullinger Eric

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract "Stochastic Modelling for Systems Biology" by Darren Wilkinson introduces the peculiarities of stochastic modelling in biology. This book is particularly suited to as a textbook or for self-study, and for readers with a theoretical background.

  18. Simulation of Soil Frost and Thaw Fronts Dynamics with Community Land Model 4.5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, J.; Xie, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Freeze-thaw processes in soils, including changes in frost and thaw fronts (FTFs) , are important physical processes. The movement of FTFs affects soil water and thermal characteristics, as well as energy and water exchanges between land surface and the atmosphere, and then the land surface hydrothermal process. In this study, a two-directional freeze and thaw algorithm for simulating FTFs is incorporated into the community land surface model CLM4.5, which is called CLM4.5-FTF. The simulated FTFs depth and soil temperature of CLM4.5-FTF compared well with the observed data both in D66 station (permafrost) and Hulugou station (seasonally frozen soil). Because the soil temperature profile within a soil layer can be estimated according to the position of FTFs, CLM4.5 performed better in soil temperature simulation. Permafrost and seasonally frozen ground conditions in China from 1980 to 2010 were simulated using the CLM4.5-FTF. Numerical experiments show that the spatial distribution of simulated maximum frost depth by CLM4.5-FTF has seasonal variation obviously. Significant positive active-layer depth trends for permafrost regions and negative maximum freezing depth trends for seasonal frozen soil regions are simulated in response to positive air temperature trends except west of Black Sea.

  19. Numerical Approach to Spatial Deterministic-Stochastic Models Arising in Cell Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaff, James C; Gao, Fei; Li, Ye; Novak, Igor L; Slepchenko, Boris M

    2016-12-01

    Hybrid deterministic-stochastic methods provide an efficient alternative to a fully stochastic treatment of models which include components with disparate levels of stochasticity. However, general-purpose hybrid solvers for spatially resolved simulations of reaction-diffusion systems are not widely available. Here we describe fundamentals of a general-purpose spatial hybrid method. The method generates realizations of a spatially inhomogeneous hybrid system by appropriately integrating capabilities of a deterministic partial differential equation solver with a popular particle-based stochastic simulator, Smoldyn. Rigorous validation of the algorithm is detailed, using a simple model of calcium 'sparks' as a testbed. The solver is then applied to a deterministic-stochastic model of spontaneous emergence of cell polarity. The approach is general enough to be implemented within biologist-friendly software frameworks such as Virtual Cell.

  20. Stochastic Modelling of River Geometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Schaarup-Jensen, K.

    1996-01-01

    Numerical hydrodynamic river models are used in a large number of applications to estimate critical events for rivers. These estimates are subject to a number of uncertainties. In this paper, the problem to evaluate these estimates using probabilistic methods is considered. Stochastic models for ...... for river geometries are formulated and a coupling between hydraulic computational methods and numerical reliability methods is presented....

  1. Fast Reed-Solomon Decoder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, K. Y.

    1986-01-01

    High-speed decoder intended for use with Reed-Solomon (RS) codes of long code length and high error-correcting capability. Design based on algorithm that includes high-radix Fermat transform procedure, which is most efficient for high speeds. RS code in question has code-word length of 256 symbols, of which 224 are information symbols and 32 are redundant.

  2. Stochastic Volatility and DSGE Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller

    This paper argues that a specification of stochastic volatility commonly used to analyze the Great Moderation in DSGE models may not be appropriate, because the level of a process with this specification does not have conditional or unconditional moments. This is unfortunate because agents may...

  3. Stability analysis of multi-group deterministic and stochastic epidemic models with vaccination rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Zhi-Gang; Gao Rui-Mei; Fan Xiao-Ming; Han Qi-Xing

    2014-01-01

    We discuss in this paper a deterministic multi-group MSIR epidemic model with a vaccination rate, the basic reproduction number ℛ 0 , a key parameter in epidemiology, is a threshold which determines the persistence or extinction of the disease. By using Lyapunov function techniques, we show if ℛ 0 is greater than 1 and the deterministic model obeys some conditions, then the disease will prevail, the infective persists and the endemic state is asymptotically stable in a feasible region. If ℛ 0 is less than or equal to 1, then the infective disappear so the disease dies out. In addition, stochastic noises around the endemic equilibrium will be added to the deterministic MSIR model in order that the deterministic model is extended to a system of stochastic ordinary differential equations. In the stochastic version, we carry out a detailed analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic model. In addition, regarding the value of ℛ 0 , when the stochastic system obeys some conditions and ℛ 0 is greater than 1, we deduce the stochastic system is stochastically asymptotically stable. Finally, the deterministic and stochastic model dynamics are illustrated through computer simulations. (general)

  4. Stochastic differential equations used to model conjugation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Kirsten Riber; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

    Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are used to model horizontal transfer of antibiotic resis- tance by conjugation. The model describes the concentration of donor, recipient, transconjugants and substrate. The strength of the SDE model over the traditional ODE models is that the noise can...

  5. The potential importance of frost flowers, recycling on snow, and open leads for ozone depletion events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Piot

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available We present model studies with the one-dimensional model MISTRA to investigate the potential role of frost flowers, recycling on snow, and open leads in the depletion of tropospheric ozone in the Arctic spring. In our model, we assumed frost flower aerosols to be the major source of bromine. We show that a major ozone depletion event can be satisfactorily reproduced only if the recycling on snow of deposited bromine into gas phase bromine is assumed. In the model, this cycling is more efficient than the bromine explosion process and maintains sufficiently high levels of bromine to deplete ozone down to few nmol mol−1 within four days. We assessed the influence of different surface combinations (open lead/frost flowers on the chemistry in the model. Results showed noticeable modifications affecting the composition of aerosols and the deposition velocities. A model run with a series of coupled frost flower fields and open leads, separated by large areas of snow, showed results comparable with field observations. In addition, we studied the effects of modified temperature of either the frost flower field or the ambient airmass. A warmer frost flower field increases the relative humidity and the aerosol deposition rate. The deposition/re-emission process gains in importance, inducing more reactive bromine in the gas phase, and a stronger ozone depletion. A decrease of 1K in airmass temperature shows in our model that the aerosol uptake capacities of all gas phase species substantially increases, leading to enhanced uptake of acids from the gas phase. Consequently, the so-called bromine explosion accelerated and O3 mixing ratios decreased. In our model representation, variations in wind speed affected the aerosol source function and influenced the amount of bromine in the atmosphere and thus the ozone depletion strength. Recent studies have suggested the important role of the precipitation of calcium carbonate (CaCO3

  6. Stochastic Differential Equation-Based Flexible Software Reliability Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. K. Kapur

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Several software reliability growth models (SRGMs have been developed by software developers in tracking and measuring the growth of reliability. As the size of software system is large and the number of faults detected during the testing phase becomes large, so the change of the number of faults that are detected and removed through each debugging becomes sufficiently small compared with the initial fault content at the beginning of the testing phase. In such a situation, we can model the software fault detection process as a stochastic process with continuous state space. In this paper, we propose a new software reliability growth model based on Itô type of stochastic differential equation. We consider an SDE-based generalized Erlang model with logistic error detection function. The model is estimated and validated on real-life data sets cited in literature to show its flexibility. The proposed model integrated with the concept of stochastic differential equation performs comparatively better than the existing NHPP-based models.

  7. A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J.S. Allen

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential equations. Some well-known examples are used for illustration such as an SIR epidemic model and a host-vector malaria model. Analytical methods for approximating the probability of a disease outbreak are also discussed. Keywords: Branching process, Continuous-time Markov chain, Minor outbreak, Stochastic differential equation, 2000 MSC: 60H10, 60J28, 92D30

  8. Some Remarks on Stochastic Versions of the Ramsey Growth Model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 29 (2012), s. 139-152 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/10/1610; GA ČR GAP402/10/0956; GA ČR GAP402/11/0150 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Economic dynamics * Ramsey growth model with disturbance * stochastic dynamic programming * multistage stochastic programs Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/sladky-some remarks on stochastic versions of the ramsey growth model.pdf

  9. Stochastic modeling of consumer preferences for health care institutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malhotra, N K

    1983-01-01

    This paper proposes a stochastic procedure for modeling consumer preferences via LOGIT analysis. First, a simple, non-technical exposition of the use of a stochastic approach in health care marketing is presented. Second, a study illustrating the application of the LOGIT model in assessing consumer preferences for hospitals is given. The paper concludes with several implications of the proposed approach.

  10. Balanced Reed-Solomon codes for all parameters

    KAUST Repository

    Halbawi, Wael; Liu, Zihan; Hassibi, Babak

    2016-01-01

    We construct balanced and sparsest generator matrices for cyclic Reed-Solomon codes with any length n and dimension k. By sparsest, we mean that each row has the least possible number of nonzeros, while balanced means that the number of nonzeros in any two columns differs by at most one. Codes allowing such encoding schemes are useful in distributed settings where computational load-balancing is critical. The problem was first studied by Dau et al. who showed, using probabilistic arguments, that there always exists an MDS code over a sufficiently large field such that its generator matrix is both sparsest and balanced. Motivated by the need for an explicit construction with efficient decoding, the authors of the current paper showed that the generator matrix of a cyclic Reed-Solomon code of length n and dimension k can always be transformed to one that is both sparsest and balanced, when n and k are such that k/n (n-k+1) is an integer. In this paper, we lift this condition and construct balanced and sparsest generator matrices for cyclic Reed-Solomon codes for any set of parameters.

  11. Balanced Reed-Solomon codes for all parameters

    KAUST Repository

    Halbawi, Wael

    2016-10-27

    We construct balanced and sparsest generator matrices for cyclic Reed-Solomon codes with any length n and dimension k. By sparsest, we mean that each row has the least possible number of nonzeros, while balanced means that the number of nonzeros in any two columns differs by at most one. Codes allowing such encoding schemes are useful in distributed settings where computational load-balancing is critical. The problem was first studied by Dau et al. who showed, using probabilistic arguments, that there always exists an MDS code over a sufficiently large field such that its generator matrix is both sparsest and balanced. Motivated by the need for an explicit construction with efficient decoding, the authors of the current paper showed that the generator matrix of a cyclic Reed-Solomon code of length n and dimension k can always be transformed to one that is both sparsest and balanced, when n and k are such that k/n (n-k+1) is an integer. In this paper, we lift this condition and construct balanced and sparsest generator matrices for cyclic Reed-Solomon codes for any set of parameters.

  12. Frost heaving of planted tree seedlings in the boreal forest of northern Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goulet, France

    2000-01-01

    Frost heaving can be a leading cause of tree seedling mortality in many places in the boreal forest of Northern Sweden. The aim of this investigation was to improve our understanding of frost heaving of planted tree seedlings as related to snow cover, scarification, planting methods and soil types. The thesis is based on a review paper, three field experiments and one laboratory experiment. The experiments focus on different methods to control frost heaving of forest tree seedlings and on a number of factors affecting the extent of frost heaving. The review paper identifies the many aspects of frost heaving of forest tree seedlings and agricultural crops based on an intensive review of the research contributions made during the last century. Even if many investigations have been carried out with the aim to decrease the extent of frost heaving, very little quantitative results are available for tree seedlings. In a field experiment, the choice of planting positions was effective in decreasing frost heaving of planted seedlings following mounding or disc-trenching. Seedlings planted in the depressions were largely affected by frost heaving with a maximal vertical displacement of 5.4 cm while frost heaving did not occur on the top of the mound. On the other hand, the planting time and planting depth had no influence on the extent of frost heaving. In another field experiment the size of the scarified patches was strongly correlated to frost heaving which reached between 7.6 and 11.5 cm in 4 and 8-dm patches compared to between 4.4 and 5.3 in non-scarified soil and in a 1-dm patch. Ground vegetation probably decreases the diurnal temperature variation and the number of freezing-thawing cycles. The duration and magnitude of frost temperatures, the frost hour sum, increased with patch size. The difference between the 8-dm and 1-dm patch increased to 2064 hour-degrees at the end of the winter. In larger patches, the planting depth seemed to be effective in reducing the

  13. Frost heaving of planted tree seedlings in the boreal forest of northern Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goulet, France

    2000-07-01

    Frost heaving can be a leading cause of tree seedling mortality in many places in the boreal forest of Northern Sweden. The aim of this investigation was to improve our understanding of frost heaving of planted tree seedlings as related to snow cover, scarification, planting methods and soil types. The thesis is based on a review paper, three field experiments and one laboratory experiment. The experiments focus on different methods to control frost heaving of forest tree seedlings and on a number of factors affecting the extent of frost heaving. The review paper identifies the many aspects of frost heaving of forest tree seedlings and agricultural crops based on an intensive review of the research contributions made during the last century. Even if many investigations have been carried out with the aim to decrease the extent of frost heaving, very little quantitative results are available for tree seedlings. In a field experiment, the choice of planting positions was effective in decreasing frost heaving of planted seedlings following mounding or disc-trenching. Seedlings planted in the depressions were largely affected by frost heaving with a maximal vertical displacement of 5.4 cm while frost heaving did not occur on the top of the mound. On the other hand, the planting time and planting depth had no influence on the extent of frost heaving. In another field experiment the size of the scarified patches was strongly correlated to frost heaving which reached between 7.6 and 11.5 cm in 4 and 8-dm patches compared to between 4.4 and 5.3 in non-scarified soil and in a 1-dm patch. Ground vegetation probably decreases the diurnal temperature variation and the number of freezing-thawing cycles. The duration and magnitude of frost temperatures, the frost hour sum, increased with patch size. The difference between the 8-dm and 1-dm patch increased to 2064 hour-degrees at the end of the winter. In larger patches, the planting depth seemed to be effective in reducing the

  14. Stochastic ontogenetic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, B. J.; West, D.

    2012-02-01

    An ontogenetic growth model (OGM) for a thermodynamically closed system is generalized to satisfy both the first and second law of thermodynamics. The hypothesized stochastic ontogenetic growth model (SOGM) is shown to entail the interspecies allometry relation by explicitly averaging the basal metabolic rate and the total body mass over the steady-state probability density for the total body mass (TBM). This is the first derivation of the interspecies metabolic allometric relation from a dynamical model and the asymptotic steady-state distribution of the TBM is fit to data and shown to be inverse power law.

  15. A STUDY OF RECOVERING A REED ECOSYSTEM USING POROUS CONCRETE IN THE LAKE BIWA SHORE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, Naho; Kato, Hayato; Okamoto, Takahisa; Kojima, Takayuki

    In this study, reed planting tests were carried out at the Biyo-center, an experiment station on the Lake Biwa shore, in order to evaluate the feasibility of a planting method with porous concrete (PoC method). Reed planting tests with coconut-fiber mats (mat method), which were generally used around Lake Biwa, were simultaneously carried out to compare with the PoC method. The reeds planted by the PoC method grew better than the ones planted by the mat method, and the number of reeds which were washed away by waves was smaller than that planted by the mat method. The result of the observation of reeds planted in the PoC showed plant maturation, and reeds could ta ke root into the PoC without interference with the voids of the PoC. As a result, it was shown that the reed planting tests with the PoC method was simple and effective, so it would become in harmony with the environment around Lake Biwa.

  16. Multivariate moment closure techniques for stochastic kinetic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lakatos, Eszter; Ale, Angelique; Kirk, Paul D. W.; Stumpf, Michael P. H.

    2015-01-01

    Stochastic effects dominate many chemical and biochemical processes. Their analysis, however, can be computationally prohibitively expensive and a range of approximation schemes have been proposed to lighten the computational burden. These, notably the increasingly popular linear noise approximation and the more general moment expansion methods, perform well for many dynamical regimes, especially linear systems. At higher levels of nonlinearity, it comes to an interplay between the nonlinearities and the stochastic dynamics, which is much harder to capture correctly by such approximations to the true stochastic processes. Moment-closure approaches promise to address this problem by capturing higher-order terms of the temporally evolving probability distribution. Here, we develop a set of multivariate moment-closures that allows us to describe the stochastic dynamics of nonlinear systems. Multivariate closure captures the way that correlations between different molecular species, induced by the reaction dynamics, interact with stochastic effects. We use multivariate Gaussian, gamma, and lognormal closure and illustrate their use in the context of two models that have proved challenging to the previous attempts at approximating stochastic dynamics: oscillations in p53 and Hes1. In addition, we consider a larger system, Erk-mediated mitogen-activated protein kinases signalling, where conventional stochastic simulation approaches incur unacceptably high computational costs

  17. Multivariate moment closure techniques for stochastic kinetic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakatos, Eszter, E-mail: e.lakatos13@imperial.ac.uk; Ale, Angelique; Kirk, Paul D. W.; Stumpf, Michael P. H., E-mail: m.stumpf@imperial.ac.uk [Department of Life Sciences, Centre for Integrative Systems Biology and Bioinformatics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

    2015-09-07

    Stochastic effects dominate many chemical and biochemical processes. Their analysis, however, can be computationally prohibitively expensive and a range of approximation schemes have been proposed to lighten the computational burden. These, notably the increasingly popular linear noise approximation and the more general moment expansion methods, perform well for many dynamical regimes, especially linear systems. At higher levels of nonlinearity, it comes to an interplay between the nonlinearities and the stochastic dynamics, which is much harder to capture correctly by such approximations to the true stochastic processes. Moment-closure approaches promise to address this problem by capturing higher-order terms of the temporally evolving probability distribution. Here, we develop a set of multivariate moment-closures that allows us to describe the stochastic dynamics of nonlinear systems. Multivariate closure captures the way that correlations between different molecular species, induced by the reaction dynamics, interact with stochastic effects. We use multivariate Gaussian, gamma, and lognormal closure and illustrate their use in the context of two models that have proved challenging to the previous attempts at approximating stochastic dynamics: oscillations in p53 and Hes1. In addition, we consider a larger system, Erk-mediated mitogen-activated protein kinases signalling, where conventional stochastic simulation approaches incur unacceptably high computational costs.

  18. Comparison of stochastic models in Monte Carlo simulation of coated particle fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Hui; Nam Zin Cho

    2013-01-01

    There is growing interest worldwide in very high temperature gas cooled reactors as candidates for next generation reactor systems. For design and analysis of such reactors with double heterogeneity introduced by the coated particle fuels that are randomly distributed in graphite pebbles, stochastic transport models are becoming essential. Several models were reported in the literature, such as coarse lattice models, fine lattice stochastic (FLS) models, random sequential addition (RSA) models, metropolis models. The principles and performance of these stochastic models are described and compared in this paper. Compared with the usual fixed lattice methods, sub-FLS modeling allows more realistic stochastic distribution of fuel particles and thus results in more accurate criticality calculation. Compared with the basic RSA method, sub-FLS modeling requires simpler and more efficient overlapping checking procedure. (authors)

  19. Compositional Modelling of Stochastic Hybrid Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strubbe, S.N.

    2005-01-01

    In this thesis we present a modelling framework for compositional modelling of stochastic hybrid systems. Hybrid systems consist of a combination of continuous and discrete dynamics. The state space of a hybrid system is hybrid in the sense that it consists of a continuous component and a discrete

  20. Stochastic models for turbulent reacting flows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerstein, A. [Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA (United States)

    1993-12-01

    The goal of this program is to develop and apply stochastic models of various processes occurring within turbulent reacting flows in order to identify the fundamental mechanisms governing these flows, to support experimental studies of these flows, and to further the development of comprehensive turbulent reacting flow models.

  1. Position indicating systems and reed contact unit assemblies for such systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foxworthy, M.K.

    1980-01-01

    Specifications are given for a position indicating system for determining the position of a movable member inside a sealed container such as the position of a control rod in a nuclear reactor. The system comprises a magnetic flux producing member mounted to the movable member so as to move with it, a series of magnetic reed contact units mounted along the outside of the sealed container to be individually actuated by the flux producer as the movable member moves within the sealed container to indicate the position of this member. Each of the reed contact units is connected to a source of alternating electric current to produce a magnetic flux field to minimize the flux differential between the actuated and unactuated reed contact positions. A second aspect of the invention provides for a low operating flux differential reed contact unit assembly for a position indicating system such that it is actuated by the magnetic member at one magnetic flux level and deactivated at a second level. There is a source of alternating current connected to a coil surrounding the reed contact unit so as to produce an alternating magnetic flux with amplitude less than the difference between the two levels. Variations are given, also diagrams and benefits. (U.K.)

  2. Evaluation of Green-LiDAR Data for Mapping Extent, Density and Height of Aquatic Reed Beds at Lake Chiemsee, Bavaria—Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolás Corti Meneses

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Aquatic reed is an important indicator for the ecological assessment of freshwater lakes. Monitoring is essential to document its expansion or deterioration and decline. The applicability of Green-LiDAR data for the status assessment of aquatic reed beds of Bavarian freshwater lakes was investigated. The study focused on mapping diagnostic structural parameters of aquatic reed beds by exploring 3D data provided by the Green-LiDAR system. Field observations were conducted over 14 different areas of interest along 152 cross-sections. The data indicated the morphologic and phenologic traits of aquatic reed, which were used for validation purposes. For the automatic classification of aquatic reed bed spatial extent, density and height, a rule-based algorithm was developed. LiDAR data allowed for the delimitating of the aquatic reed frontline, as well as shoreline, and therefore an accurate quantification of extents (Hausdorff distance = 5.74 m and RMSE of cross-sections length 0.69 m. The overall accuracy measured for aquatic reed bed density compared to the simultaneously recorded aerial imagery was 96% with a Kappa coefficient of 0.91 and 72% (Kappa = 0.5 compared to field measurements. Digital Surface Models (DSM, calculated from point clouds, similarly showed a high level of agreement in derived heights of flat surfaces (RMSE = 0.1 m and showed an adequate agreement of aquatic reed heights with evenly distributed errors (RMSE = 0.8 m. Compared to field measurements, aerial laser scanning delivered valuable information with no disturbance of the habitat. Analysing data with our classification procedure improved the efficiency, reproducibility, and accuracy of the quantification and monitoring of aquatic reed beds.

  3. Multi-scenario modelling of uncertainty in stochastic chemical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, R. David; Ricardez-Sandoval, Luis A.

    2014-01-01

    Uncertainty analysis has not been well studied at the molecular scale, despite extensive knowledge of uncertainty in macroscale systems. The ability to predict the effect of uncertainty allows for robust control of small scale systems such as nanoreactors, surface reactions, and gene toggle switches. However, it is difficult to model uncertainty in such chemical systems as they are stochastic in nature, and require a large computational cost. To address this issue, a new model of uncertainty propagation in stochastic chemical systems, based on the Chemical Master Equation, is proposed in the present study. The uncertain solution is approximated by a composite state comprised of the averaged effect of samples from the uncertain parameter distributions. This model is then used to study the effect of uncertainty on an isomerization system and a two gene regulation network called a repressilator. The results of this model show that uncertainty in stochastic systems is dependent on both the uncertain distribution, and the system under investigation. -- Highlights: •A method to model uncertainty on stochastic systems was developed. •The method is based on the Chemical Master Equation. •Uncertainty in an isomerization reaction and a gene regulation network was modelled. •Effects were significant and dependent on the uncertain input and reaction system. •The model was computationally more efficient than Kinetic Monte Carlo

  4. Identifiability in stochastic models

    CERN Document Server

    1992-01-01

    The problem of identifiability is basic to all statistical methods and data analysis, occurring in such diverse areas as Reliability Theory, Survival Analysis, and Econometrics, where stochastic modeling is widely used. Mathematics dealing with identifiability per se is closely related to the so-called branch of ""characterization problems"" in Probability Theory. This book brings together relevant material on identifiability as it occurs in these diverse fields.

  5. Designing a Frost Forecasting Service for Small Scale Tea Farmers in East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, E. C.; Nyaga, J. W.; Ellenburg, W. L.; Limaye, A. S.; Mugo, R. M.; Flores Cordova, A. I.; Irwin, D.; Case, J.; Malaso, S.; Sedah, A.

    2017-12-01

    Kenya is the third largest tea exporter in the world, producing 10% of the world's black tea. Sixty percent of this production occurs largely by small scale tea holders, with an average farm size of 1.04 acres, and an annual net income of 1,075. According to a recent evaluation, a typical frost event in the tea growing region causes about 200 dollars in losses which can be catastrophic for a small holder farm. A 72-hour frost forecast would provide these small-scale tea farmers with enough notice to reduce losses by approximately $80 annually. With this knowledge, SERVIR, a joint NASA-USAID initiative that brings Earth observations for improved decision making in developing countries, sought to design a frost monitoring and forecasting service that would provide farmers with enough lead time to react to and protect against a forecasted frost occurrence on their farm. SERVIR Eastern and Southern Africa, through its implementing partner, the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD), designed a service that included multiple stakeholder engagement events whereby stakeholders from the tea industry value chain were invited to share their experiences so that the exact needs and flow of information could be identified. This unique event allowed enabled the design of a service that fit the specifications of the stakeholders. The monitoring service component uses the MODIS Land Surface Temperature product to identify frost occurrences in near-real time. The prediction component, currently under testing, uses the 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m wind speed from a series of high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model runs over eastern Kenya as inputs into a frost prediction algorithm. Accuracy and sensitivity of the algorithm is being assessed with observations collected from the farmers using a smart phone app developed specifically to report frost occurrences, and from data shared through

  6. Forecasting Frost Damage: Follow the Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rempel, A. W.

    2015-12-01

    Frost damage takes place when the pressure exerted against pore walls exceeds the cohesive strength of water-infiltrated rock and causes cracks to extend. Elegant theoretical treatments supported by meticulous field and laboratory observations have combined to unravel the basic mechanical and thermodynamic controls in idealized systems. Frost damage is most vigorous when conditions are cold enough that the net pressure exerted against the pore walls can cause crack extension, yet warm enough to enable the flow that supplies further ice growth in the newly opened space. This insight is applied here to develop practical geomorphic process laws for the effects of frost damage at the larger scales that are relevant for describing the evolution of landscapes. To this end, a direct connection is made between the intensity of frost damage and the porosity increase that results from gradients in water flux under conditions that are cold enough for ice-rock interactions to propagate cracks. This implies that the annual temperature variation at the ground surface can be combined with considerations of heat and mass transport to derive rigorous forecasts of the potential for frost damage that are tied to the increases in water mass that accompany solidification in porous rock. As an example, the image shows the depth-integrated porosity change λ promoted by crack growth at temperatures colder than -ΔTc over an annual cycle for different choices of mean annual temperature MAT and surface amplitude A (assuming a thermal diffusivity of 1 mm2/s and a power-law relationship between permeability and undercooling with exponent α=4, such that a base value of 10-14m2 is reached at a reference undercooling of 0.1 ºC). The abrupt onset in cracking once MAT decreases below a threshold is produced by the requirement that undercooling surpass ΔTc in order to generate sufficient pressures to propagate cracks. The eventual reduction and gradual tail in λ at colder MAT is produced by

  7. Biology, Management and Utilization of Common Reed Pharagnites australis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-02-01

    Vrije Universiteit Waterways Experiment Staticn Department of Ecology and Ecotoxicology Environmental Laboratory P.O. Box 7161 P.O. Box 631 1007 MC...Madelijn van der Werff Vrije Universiteit Department of Ecology and Ecotoxicology Amsterdam and John W. Simmers and Stratford H. Kay Waterways...lowing and cutting 67 5.2.4. Active regulation of the water table 68 5.5. Nature conservation 68 5.4. Reed cultivation 69 Z.4. 1. Reed harvest 69 6

  8. Reed-Solomon error-correction as a software patch mechanism.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pendley, Kevin D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2013-11-01

    This report explores how error-correction data generated by a Reed-Solomon code may be used as a mechanism to apply changes to an existing installed codebase. Using the Reed-Solomon code to generate error-correction data for a changed or updated codebase will allow the error-correction data to be applied to an existing codebase to both validate and introduce changes or updates from some upstream source to the existing installed codebase.

  9. Study on individual stochastic model of GNSS observations for precise kinematic applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Próchniewicz, Dominik; Szpunar, Ryszard

    2015-04-01

    The proper definition of mathematical positioning model, which is defined by functional and stochastic models, is a prerequisite to obtain the optimal estimation of unknown parameters. Especially important in this definition is realistic modelling of stochastic properties of observations, which are more receiver-dependent and time-varying than deterministic relationships. This is particularly true with respect to precise kinematic applications which are characterized by weakening model strength. In this case, incorrect or simplified definition of stochastic model causes that the performance of ambiguity resolution and accuracy of position estimation can be limited. In this study we investigate the methods of describing the measurement noise of GNSS observations and its impact to derive precise kinematic positioning model. In particular stochastic modelling of individual components of the variance-covariance matrix of observation noise performed using observations from a very short baseline and laboratory GNSS signal generator, is analyzed. Experimental test results indicate that the utilizing the individual stochastic model of observations including elevation dependency and cross-correlation instead of assumption that raw measurements are independent with the same variance improves the performance of ambiguity resolution as well as rover positioning accuracy. This shows that the proposed stochastic assessment method could be a important part in complex calibration procedure of GNSS equipment.

  10. Heat transfer and pressure drop amidst frost layer presence for the full geometry of fin-tube heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung Jool; Choi, Ho Jin; Ha, Man Yeong; Kim, Seok Ro; Bang, Seon Wook

    2010-01-01

    The present study numerically solves the flow and thermal fields in the full geometry of heat exchanger modeling with frost layer presence on the heat exchanger surface. The effects of air inlet velocity, air inlet temperature, frost layer thickness, fin pitch, fin thickness, and heat exchanger shape on the thermo-hydraulic performance of a fin-tube heat exchanger are investigated. Heat transfer rate rises with increasing air inlet velocity and temperature, and decreasing frost layer thickness and fin pitch. Pressure drop rises with increasing air inlet velocity and frost layer thickness, and decreasing fin pitch. The effect of fin thickness on heat transfer and pressure drop is negligible. Based on the present results, we derived the correlations, which express pressure drop and temperature difference between air inlet and outlet as a function of air inlet velocity and temperature, as well as frost layer thickness

  11. 77 FR 43369 - Lexisnexis, a Subsidiary of Reed Elsevier Customer Service Department and Fulfillment Department...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-24

    ..., a Subsidiary of Reed Elsevier Customer Service Department and Fulfillment Department, Including On... Including Remote Workers in New York Reporting to Miamisburg, OH; Lexisnexis, a Subsidiary of Reed Elsevier... subsidiary of Reed Elsevier, Inc., Customer Service Department and Fulfillment Department, including on-site...

  12. Utility and Value of Satellite-Based Frost Forecasting for Kenya's Tea Farming Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, I.

    2016-12-01

    Frost damage regularly inflicts millions of dollars of crop losses in the tea-growing highlands of western Kenya, a problem that the USAID/NASA Regional Visualization and Monitoring System (SERVIR) program is working to mitigate through a frost monitoring and forecasting product that uses satellite-based temperature and soil moisture data to generate up to three days of advanced warning before frost events. This paper presents the findings of a value of information (VOI) study assessing the value of this product based on Kenyan tea farmers' experiences with frost and frost-damage mitigation. Value was calculated based on historic trends of frost frequency, severity, and extent; likelihood of warning receipt and response; and subsequent frost-related crop-loss aversion. Quantification of these factors was derived through inferential analysis of survey data from 400 tea-farming households across the tea-growing regions of Kericho and Nandi, supplemented with key informant interviews with decision-makers at large estate tea plantations, historical frost incident and crop-loss data from estate tea plantations and agricultural insurance companies, and publicly available demographic and economic data. At this time, the product provides a forecasting window of up to three days, and no other frost-prediction methods are used by the large or small-scale farmers of Kenya's tea sector. This represents a significant opportunity for preemptive loss-reduction via Earth observation data. However, the tea-growing community has only two realistic options for frost-damage mitigation: preemptive harvest of available tea leaves to minimize losses, or skiving (light pruning) to facilitate fast recovery from frost damage. Both options are labor-intensive and require a minimum of three days of warning to be viable. As a result, the frost forecasting system has a very narrow margin of usefulness, making its value highly dependent on rapid access to the warning messages and flexible access

  13. Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models by Nonparametric Filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kanaya, Shin; Kristensen, Dennis

    2016-01-01

    /estimated volatility process replacing the latent process. Our estimation strategy is applicable to both parametric and nonparametric stochastic volatility models, and can handle both jumps and market microstructure noise. The resulting estimators of the stochastic volatility model will carry additional biases...... and variances due to the first-step estimation, but under regularity conditions we show that these vanish asymptotically and our estimators inherit the asymptotic properties of the infeasible estimators based on observations of the volatility process. A simulation study examines the finite-sample properties...

  14. A Simulation-Based Dynamic Stochastic Route Choice Model for Evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing Zhao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic route choice model for evacuation to simulate the propagation process of traffic flow and estimate the stochastic route choice under evacuation situations. The model contains a lane-group-based cell transmission model (CTM which sets different traffic capacities for links with different turning movements to flow out in an evacuation situation, an actual impedance model which is to obtain the impedance of each route in time units at each time interval and a stochastic route choice model according to the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium. In this model, vehicles loading at each origin at each time interval are assumed to choose an evacuation route under determinate road network, signal design, and OD demand. As a case study, the proposed model is validated on the network nearby Nanjing Olympic Center after the opening ceremony of the 10th National Games of the People's Republic of China. The traffic volumes and clearing time at five exit points of the evacuation zone are calculated by the model to compare with survey data. The results show that this model can appropriately simulate the dynamic route choice and evolution process of the traffic flow on the network in an evacuation situation.

  15. On the small-time behavior of stochastic logistic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dung Tien Nguyen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we investigate the small-time behaviors of the solution to  a stochastic logistic model. The obtained results allow us to estimate the number of individuals in the population and can be used to study stochastic prey-predator systems.

  16. Frost Heave in Colloidal Soils

    KAUST Repository

    Peppin, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    We develop a mathematical model of frost heave in colloidal soils. The theory accountsfor heave and consolidation while not requiring a frozen fringe assumption. Two solidificationregimes occur: a compaction regime in which the soil consolidates to accommodate the ice lenses, and a heave regime during which liquid is sucked into the consolidated soil from an external reservoir, and the added volume causes the soil to heave. The ice fraction is found to vary inversely with thefreezing velocity V , while the rate of heave is independent of V , consistent with field and laboratoryobservations. © 2011 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

  17. Frost on Dunes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    18 March 2005 This Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) image shows dark dunes on a crater floor during the southern spring. Some of the dunes have frost on their south-facing slopes. Location near: 52.3oS, 326.7oW Image width: 3 km (1.9 mi) Illumination from: upper left Season: Southern Spring

  18. Spatial stochastic regression modelling of urban land use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arshad, S H M; Jaafar, J; Abiden, M Z Z; Latif, Z A; Rasam, A R A

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization is very closely linked to industrialization, commercialization or overall economic growth and development. This results in innumerable benefits of the quantity and quality of the urban environment and lifestyle but on the other hand contributes to unbounded development, urban sprawl, overcrowding and decreasing standard of living. Regulation and observation of urban development activities is crucial. The understanding of urban systems that promotes urban growth are also essential for the purpose of policy making, formulating development strategies as well as development plan preparation. This study aims to compare two different stochastic regression modeling techniques for spatial structure models of urban growth in the same specific study area. Both techniques will utilize the same datasets and their results will be analyzed. The work starts by producing an urban growth model by using stochastic regression modeling techniques namely the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The two techniques are compared to and it is found that, GWR seems to be a more significant stochastic regression model compared to OLS, it gives a smaller AICc (Akaike's Information Corrected Criterion) value and its output is more spatially explainable

  19. One way quantum repeaters with quantum Reed-Solomon codes

    OpenAIRE

    Muralidharan, Sreraman; Zou, Chang-Ling; Li, Linshu; Jiang, Liang

    2018-01-01

    We show that quantum Reed-Solomon codes constructed from classical Reed-Solomon codes can approach the capacity on the quantum erasure channel of $d$-level systems for large dimension $d$. We study the performance of one-way quantum repeaters with these codes and obtain a significant improvement in key generation rate compared to previously investigated encoding schemes with quantum parity codes and quantum polynomial codes. We also compare the three generation of quantum repeaters using quan...

  20. Stochastic Geometric Models with Non-stationary Spatial Correlations in Lagrangian Fluid Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gay-Balmaz, François; Holm, Darryl D.

    2018-01-01

    Inspired by spatiotemporal observations from satellites of the trajectories of objects drifting near the surface of the ocean in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's "Global Drifter Program", this paper develops data-driven stochastic models of geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD) with non-stationary spatial correlations representing the dynamical behaviour of oceanic currents. Three models are considered. Model 1 from Holm (Proc R Soc A 471:20140963, 2015) is reviewed, in which the spatial correlations are time independent. Two new models, called Model 2 and Model 3, introduce two different symmetry breaking mechanisms by which the spatial correlations may be advected by the flow. These models are derived using reduction by symmetry of stochastic variational principles, leading to stochastic Hamiltonian systems, whose momentum maps, conservation laws and Lie-Poisson bracket structures are used in developing the new stochastic Hamiltonian models of GFD.

  1. Stochastic Geometric Models with Non-stationary Spatial Correlations in Lagrangian Fluid Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gay-Balmaz, François; Holm, Darryl D.

    2018-06-01

    Inspired by spatiotemporal observations from satellites of the trajectories of objects drifting near the surface of the ocean in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's "Global Drifter Program", this paper develops data-driven stochastic models of geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD) with non-stationary spatial correlations representing the dynamical behaviour of oceanic currents. Three models are considered. Model 1 from Holm (Proc R Soc A 471:20140963, 2015) is reviewed, in which the spatial correlations are time independent. Two new models, called Model 2 and Model 3, introduce two different symmetry breaking mechanisms by which the spatial correlations may be advected by the flow. These models are derived using reduction by symmetry of stochastic variational principles, leading to stochastic Hamiltonian systems, whose momentum maps, conservation laws and Lie-Poisson bracket structures are used in developing the new stochastic Hamiltonian models of GFD.

  2. Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Valor

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion of metallic structures has been widely recognized. It is assumed that this kind of deterioration retains no memory of the past, so only the current state of the damage influences its future development. This characteristic allows pitting corrosion to be categorized as a Markov process. In this paper, two different models of pitting corrosion, developed using Markov chains, are presented. Firstly, a continuous-time, nonhomogeneous linear growth (pure birth Markov process is used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. A closed-form solution of the system of Kolmogorov's forward equations is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The transition probability function is identified by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the empirical deterministic mean. In the second model, the distribution of maximum pit depths in a pitting experiment is successfully modeled after the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. An analytical solution of Kolmogorov's system of equations is also found for the transition probabilities from the first Markov state. Extreme value statistics is employed to find the distribution of maximum pit depths.

  3. A stochastic model for the financial market with discontinuous prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leda D. Minkova

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper models some situations occurring in the financial market. The asset prices evolve according to a stochastic integral equation driven by a Gaussian martingale. A portfolio process is constrained in such a way that the wealth process covers some obligation. A solution to a linear stochastic integral equation is obtained in a class of cadlag stochastic processes.

  4. Stochastic higher spin six vertex model and Macdonald measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borodin, Alexei

    2018-02-01

    We prove an identity that relates the q-Laplace transform of the height function of a (higher spin inhomogeneous) stochastic six vertex model in a quadrant on one side and a multiplicative functional of a Macdonald measure on the other. The identity is used to prove the GUE Tracy-Widom asymptotics for two instances of the stochastic six vertex model via asymptotic analysis of the corresponding Schur measures.

  5. [Research on quality changes in ginseng stems and leaves before and after frost].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yan; Ma, Shuang; Cai, En-Bo; Liu, Shuang-Li; Yang, He; Zhang, Lian-Xue; Wang, Shi-Jie

    2014-08-01

    The present study is to investigate the quality changes of ginseng stems and leaves before and after frost. The contents changes of ginsenoside, free amino acid, and total phenolic compounds, as well as DPPH radical scavenging effect before and after frost were measured. The content of 9 ginsenoside monomer in ginseng stems was decreased except for Rg, and Re after frost, but in ginseng leaves was all decreased. The total content of amino acids was decreased in ginseng stems after frost, while increased in ginseng leaves. The content of phenolic compounds in ginseng stems and leaves were both decreased after frost while the ability of DPPH radical scavenging was improved. The factor of frost has great impact on the quality of ginseng stems and leaves.

  6. Improved ensemble-mean forecast skills of ENSO events by a zero-mean stochastic model-error model of an intermediate coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, F.; Zhu, J.

    2015-12-01

    To perform an ensemble-based ENSO probabilistic forecast, the crucial issue is to design a reliable ensemble prediction strategy that should include the major uncertainties of a forecast system. In this study, we developed a new general ensemble perturbation technique to improve the ensemble-mean predictive skill of forecasting ENSO using an intermediate coupled model (ICM). The model uncertainties are first estimated and analyzed from EnKF analysis results through assimilating observed SST. Then, based on the pre-analyzed properties of the model errors, a zero-mean stochastic model-error model is developed to mainly represent the model uncertainties induced by some important physical processes missed in the coupled model (i.e., stochastic atmospheric forcing/MJO, extra-tropical cooling and warming, Indian Ocean Dipole mode, etc.). Each member of an ensemble forecast is perturbed by the stochastic model-error model at each step during the 12-month forecast process, and the stochastical perturbations are added into the modeled physical fields to mimic the presence of these high-frequency stochastic noises and model biases and their effect on the predictability of the coupled system. The impacts of stochastic model-error perturbations on ENSO deterministic predictions are examined by performing two sets of 21-yr retrospective forecast experiments. The two forecast schemes are differentiated by whether they considered the model stochastic perturbations, with both initialized by the ensemble-mean analysis states from EnKF. The comparison results suggest that the stochastic model-error perturbations have significant and positive impacts on improving the ensemble-mean prediction skills during the entire 12-month forecast process. Because the nonlinear feature of the coupled model can induce the nonlinear growth of the added stochastic model errors with model integration, especially through the nonlinear heating mechanism with the vertical advection term of the model, the

  7. Stochastic hyperfine interactions modeling library

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zacate, Matthew O.; Evenson, William E.

    2011-04-01

    The stochastic hyperfine interactions modeling library (SHIML) provides a set of routines to assist in the development and application of stochastic models of hyperfine interactions. The library provides routines written in the C programming language that (1) read a text description of a model for fluctuating hyperfine fields, (2) set up the Blume matrix, upon which the evolution operator of the system depends, and (3) find the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Blume matrix so that theoretical spectra of experimental techniques that measure hyperfine interactions can be calculated. The optimized vector and matrix operations of the BLAS and LAPACK libraries are utilized; however, there was a need to develop supplementary code to find an orthonormal set of (left and right) eigenvectors of complex, non-Hermitian matrices. In addition, example code is provided to illustrate the use of SHIML to generate perturbed angular correlation spectra for the special case of polycrystalline samples when anisotropy terms of higher order than A can be neglected. Program summaryProgram title: SHIML Catalogue identifier: AEIF_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEIF_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GNU GPL 3 No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 8224 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 312 348 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C Computer: Any Operating system: LINUX, OS X RAM: Varies Classification: 7.4 External routines: TAPP [1], BLAS [2], a C-interface to BLAS [3], and LAPACK [4] Nature of problem: In condensed matter systems, hyperfine methods such as nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), Mössbauer effect (ME), muon spin rotation (μSR), and perturbed angular correlation spectroscopy (PAC) measure electronic and magnetic structure within Angstroms of nuclear probes through the hyperfine interaction. When

  8. Scalable inference for stochastic block models

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Zhang, Zhihua; Wong, Ka-Chun; Zhang, Xiangliang; Keyes, David E.

    2017-01-01

    Community detection in graphs is widely used in social and biological networks, and the stochastic block model is a powerful probabilistic tool for describing graphs with community structures. However, in the era of "big data," traditional inference

  9. System for the Reduction of Substances in Reject Water from Reed-Bed Sludge Mineralization Plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2004-01-01

    The invention is a system for the reduction of substances in reject water from reed-bed sludge mineralization plants (also referred to as sludge dewatering reed-beds). The systems utilizes the composition of substances in reject water from reed-beds and that of sludge to reduce substance mass from...... the reject water via recirculation into a mixed reactor and back onto the reed-beds. The mixed rector consists of a container in which sludge (that is typically loaded directly on to reed-beds) is mixed with recirculated reject water from reed-beds. The sludge mixture has a definable hydraulic retention time...... of by sending it back to the head of a wastewater treatment plant. The system has proven to reduce the mass of nitrogen, COD, and water in the reject water, and can possibly reduce phosphorus and other substances. The overall effect is a reduction in the substance recycle within a wastewater treatment plant...

  10. Stochastic Parametrisations and Regime Behaviour of Atmospheric Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Hannah; Moroz, Irene; Palmer, Tim

    2013-04-01

    The presence of regimes is a characteristic of non-linear, chaotic systems (Lorenz, 2006). In the atmosphere, regimes emerge as familiar circulation patterns such as the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian Blocking events. In recent years there has been much interest in the problem of identifying and studying atmospheric regimes (Solomon et al, 2007). In particular, how do these regimes respond to an external forcing such as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions? The importance of regimes in observed trends over the past 50-100 years indicates that in order to predict anthropogenic climate change, our climate models must be able to represent accurately natural circulation regimes, their statistics and variability. It is well established that representing model uncertainty as well as initial condition uncertainty is important for reliable weather forecasts (Palmer, 2001). In particular, stochastic parametrisation schemes have been shown to improve the skill of weather forecast models (e.g. Berner et al., 2009; Frenkel et al., 2012; Palmer et al., 2009). It is possible that including stochastic physics as a representation of model uncertainty could also be beneficial in climate modelling, enabling the simulator to explore larger regions of the climate attractor including other flow regimes. An alternative representation of model uncertainty is a perturbed parameter scheme, whereby physical parameters in subgrid parametrisation schemes are perturbed about their optimal value. Perturbing parameters gives a greater control over the ensemble than multi-model or multiparametrisation ensembles, and has been used as a representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction (Stainforth et al., 2005; Rougier et al., 2009). We investigate the effect of including representations of model uncertainty on the regime behaviour of a simulator. A simple chaotic model of the atmosphere, the Lorenz '96 system, is used to study

  11. Ecology and physiology of reed. A literature study for evaluation of reed as an energy source. Vassens Ekologi och Fysiologi. Litteraturstudie foer Bedoerfrung au Vass som Energiraavaren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerndahl, G.; Egnens, H.

    1980-01-01

    The potentials of reed as an energy source are evaluated. The following subjects are discussed: The structure and life-cycle of reed; Primary production and photosynthesis; Important environmental factors for the production; Genetic variation; Competition, succession and parasitism; Human influence like cultivation, harvesting, etc. An extensive list of references is given.

  12. Model tracking dual stochastic controller design under irregular internal noises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jong Bok; Heo, Hoon; Cho, Yun Hyun; Ji, Tae Young

    2006-01-01

    Although many methods about the control of irregular external noise have been introduced and implemented, it is still necessary to design a controller that will be more effective and efficient methods to exclude for various noises. Accumulation of errors due to model tracking, internal noises (thermal noise, shot noise and l/f noise) that come from elements such as resistor, diode and transistor etc. in the circuit system and numerical errors due to digital process often destabilize the system and reduce the system performance. New stochastic controller is adopted to remove those noises using conventional controller simultaneously. Design method of a model tracking dual controller is proposed to improve the stability of system while removing external and internal noises. In the study, design process of the model tracking dual stochastic controller is introduced that improves system performance and guarantees robustness under irregular internal noises which can be created internally. The model tracking dual stochastic controller utilizing F-P-K stochastic control technique developed earlier is implemented to reveal its performance via simulation

  13. Frost as a first wall for the ICF laboratory microfusion facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orth, C.D.

    1989-01-01

    The authors introduce the concept of using frost as the first wall of the ICF Laboratory Microfusion Facility being designed to produce 200-1000 MJ of thermonuclear yield. They present one design incorporating 2cm of frost deposited at 0.1 g/cm/sup 3/ on an LN-cooled fiber-reinforced polymer substrate. They calculate that such a frost layer will protect the substrate from ablation by target x rays and debris, and from shock-induced spallation. Postshot washdown with water should permit low-activation operation, and should preserve the original wall properties. The authors expect the impact of the frost on laser optics to be minimal, and expect the preshot lifetime of thermally unprotected cryogenic targets to be extended by operating the wall at 100-150 K. Moreover, they believe that such a frost first wall involves little technical risk, and will be inexpensive to construct and operate

  14. Frost as a first wall for the ICF Laboratory Microfusion Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orth, C.D.

    1988-01-01

    We introduce the concept of using frost as the first wall of the ICF Laboratory Microfusion Facility being designed to produce 200--1000 MJ of thermonuclear yield. We present one design incorporating 2 cm of frost deposited at 0.1 g/cm 3 on an LN-cooled fiber-reinforced polymer substrate. We calculate that such a frost layer will protect the substrate from ablation by target x rays and debris, and from shock-induced spallation. Postshot washdown with water should permit low-activation operation, and should preserve the original wall properties. We expect the impact of the frost on laser optics to be minimal, and expect the preshot lifetime of thermally unprotected cryogenic targets to be extended by operating the wall at 100-150 K. Moreover, we believe that such a frost first wall will involve little technical risk, and will be inexpensive to construct and operate. 4 refs., 1 fig

  15. Simulation of nuclear plant operation into a stochastic energy production model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pacheco, R.L.

    1983-04-01

    A simulation model of nuclear plant operation is developed to fit into a stochastic energy production model. In order to improve the stochastic model used, and also reduce its computational time burdened by the aggregation of the model of nuclear plant operation, a study of tail truncation of the unsupplied demand distribution function has been performed. (E.G.) [pt

  16. A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jifang Zhuang; Gabriel, S.A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic equilibrium model for deregulated natural gas markets. Each market participant (pipeline operators, producers, etc.) solves a stochastic optimization problem whose optimality conditions, when combined with market-clearing conditions give rise to a certain mixed complementarity problem (MiCP). The stochastic aspects are depicted by a recourse problem for each player in which the first-stage decisions relate to long-term contracts and the second-stage decisions relate to spot market activities for three seasons. Besides showing that such a market model is an instance of a MiCP, we provide theoretical results concerning long-term and spot market prices and solve the resulting MiCP for a small yet representative market. We also note an interesting observation for the value of the stochastic solution for non-optimization problems. (author)

  17. A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhuang Jifang; Gabriel, Steven A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic equilibrium model for deregulated natural gas markets. Each market participant (pipeline operators, producers, etc.) solves a stochastic optimization problem whose optimality conditions, when combined with market-clearing conditions give rise to a certain mixed complementarity problem (MiCP). The stochastic aspects are depicted by a recourse problem for each player in which the first-stage decisions relate to long-term contracts and the second-stage decisions relate to spot market activities for three seasons. Besides showing that such a market model is an instance of a MiCP, we provide theoretical results concerning long-term and spot market prices and solve the resulting MiCP for a small yet representative market. We also note an interesting observation for the value of the stochastic solution for non-optimization problems

  18. Deterministic and stochastic models for middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suryani, Dessy Rizki; Zevika, Mona; Nuraini, Nuning

    2018-03-01

    World Health Organization (WHO) data stated that since September 2012, there were 1,733 cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) with 628 death cases that occurred in 27 countries. MERS was first identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012 and the largest cases of MERS outside Saudi Arabia occurred in South Korea in 2015. MERS is a disease that attacks the respiratory system caused by infection of MERS-CoV. MERS-CoV transmission occurs directly through direct contact between infected individual with non-infected individual or indirectly through contaminated object by the free virus. Suspected, MERS can spread quickly because of the free virus in environment. Mathematical modeling is used to illustrate the transmission of MERS disease using deterministic model and stochastic model. Deterministic model is used to investigate the temporal dynamic from the system to analyze the steady state condition. Stochastic model approach using Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) is used to predict the future states by using random variables. From the models that were built, the threshold value for deterministic models and stochastic models obtained in the same form and the probability of disease extinction can be computed by stochastic model. Simulations for both models using several of different parameters are shown, and the probability of disease extinction will be compared with several initial conditions.

  19. Considerations when ranking stochastically modeled oil sands resource models for mining applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Etris, E.L. [Society of Petroleum Engineers, Canadian Section, Calgary, AB (Canada)]|[Petro-Canada, Calgary, AB (Canada); Idris, Y.; Hunter, A.C. [Petro-Canada, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2008-10-15

    Alberta's Athabasca oil sands deposit has been targeted as a major resource for development. Bitumen recovery operations fall into 2 categories, namely mining and in situ operations. Mining recovery is done above ground level and consists of open pit digging, disaggregation of the bitumen-saturated sediment through crushing followed by pipeline transport in a water-based slurry and then separation of oil, water and sediment. In situ recovery consists of drilling wells and stimulating the oil sands in the subsurface with a thermal treatment to reduce the viscosity of the bitumen and allow it to come to the surface. Steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) is the most popular thermal treatment currently in use. Resource models that simulate the recovery process are needed for both mining and in situ recovery operations. Both types can benefit from the advantages of a stochastic modeling process for resource model building and uncertainty evaluation. Stochastic modeling provides a realistic geology and allows for multiple realizations, which mining operations can use to evaluate the variability of recoverable bitumen volumes and develop mine plans accordingly. This paper described the processes of stochastic modelling and of determining the appropriate single realization for mine planning as applied to the Fort Hills oil sands mine which is currently in the early planning stage. The modeling exercise was used to estimate the in-place resource and quantify the uncertainty in resource volumes. The stochastic models were checked against those generated from conventional methods to identify any differences and to make the appropriate adaptations. 13 refs., 3 tabs., 16 figs.

  20. Dorothy Reed and Hodgkin's disease: a reflection after a century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwitter, Matjaz; Cohen, Joel R.; Barrett, Ann; Robinton, Elizabeth D.

    2002-01-01

    It has now been 100 years since Dorothy Reed, at the age of 28, wrote her paper on Hodgkin's disease. Her biography reveals the difficult lives of women entering the hitherto male-dominated field of medicine, let alone medical research. Her historic paper on Hodgkin's disease is remarkable for its brilliant observations and concise scientific reasoning. Nevertheless, she was told that as a woman she could not hope for a career as an academic pathologist. After marriage to Charles Elwood Mendenhall, Professor of Physics at the University of Wisconsin and after giving birth to four children, the second part of her career began. Motivated by the loss of her firstborn, she began a study of infant mortality, an interest that lasted throughout her career. In 1926, Mendenhall undertook a survey comparing infant and maternal mortality rates in Denmark and the United States. This influential study concluded that American mortality rates were higher because of unnecessary interference in the natural process of childbirth and recommended the education of midwives follow the Danish model. In 1937, her efforts were rewarded when Madison, WI received recognition for having the lowest infant mortality of any city in the United States. Reading Reed's paper on Hodgkin's disease, we see that her observations go far beyond a description of a specific cell. Her presentation of macroscopic and microscopic features is remarkable for the distinction between 'young' and 'old' growths: Reed saw Hodgkin's disease as a process, rather than the spreading of a cancer. She was the first to note that those most commonly affected are boys or young adults, especially those whose general health before the disease had been excellent. She was also the first to note anergy to tuberculin. Dorothy Reed defined Hodgkin's disease in relation to tuberculosis, described its pathologic features, and offered comments on its pathogenesis, epidemiology, and immunology that still deserve to be discussed

  1. A computer model of the biosphere, to estimate stochastic and non-stochastic effects of radionuclides on humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurens, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    A computer code was written to model food chains in order to estimate the internal and external doses, for stochastic and non-stochastic effects, on humans (adults and infants). Results are given for 67 radionuclides, for unit concentration in water (1 Bq/L) and in atmosphere (1 Bq/m 3 )

  2. Species ecology determines the role of nitrogen nutrition in the frost tolerance of pine seedlings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toca, Andrei; Oliet, Juan A; Villar-Salvador, Pedro; Maroto, Judit; Jacobs, Douglass F

    2018-01-01

    Frost determines the evolution and distribution of plants in temperate and cold regions. Several environmental factors can influence frost acclimation of woody plants but the magnitude and direction of the effect of nitrogen (N) availability is controversial. We studied the effect of N availability on root and shoot frost tolerance in mid-fall and in winter in seedlings of four pines of contrasting ecology: Pinus nigra J.F. Arnold, P. pinaster Ait., P. pinea L. and P. halepensis Mill.. Organ N and soluble sugar concentration, and timing of cessation of shoot elongation were measured to assess the physiological mechanisms underlying frost acclimation. Nitrogen was supplied at high and low rates only during the pre-hardening period and at a moderate N rate during hardening in the fall. Shoot frost tolerance increased over winter while root frost tolerance did not change in any species. Pre-hardening N availability affected the frost tolerance of both roots and shoots, although the effect was species-specific: high N reduced the overall root and shoot frost tolerance in P. pinea and P. halepensis, and increased the frost tolerance in P. nigra, but had no effect in P. pinaster. Nitrogen supply in the fall consistently increased frost tolerance in all species. Differences in frost tolerance among species and N treatments were not explained by variations in organ N or soluble carbohydrate concentration, nor by timing of cessation of shoot elongation; however, the most frost tolerant species ceased elongation earlier than the least frost tolerant species. Despite the close phylogenetic relatedness of the studied species, the effect of N availability on seedling frost tolerance differed among species, indicating that species ecology (especially frost acclimation physiology) and timing of N supply drives the effect of N availability on frost tolerance of pine species. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please

  3. A coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model for hydrological impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Minh Tu; Vernieuwe, Hilde; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

    2018-02-01

    A hydrological impact analysis concerns the study of the consequences of certain scenarios on one or more variables or fluxes in the hydrological cycle. In such an exercise, discharge is often considered, as floods originating from extremely high discharges often cause damage. Investigating the impact of extreme discharges generally requires long time series of precipitation and evapotranspiration to be used to force a rainfall-runoff model. However, such kinds of data may not be available and one should resort to stochastically generated time series, even though the impact of using such data on the overall discharge, and especially on the extreme discharge events, is not well studied. In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time series, generated by means of vine copulas, are used to force a simple conceptual hydrological model. The results obtained are comparable to the modelled discharge using observed forcing data. Yet, uncertainties in the modelled discharge increase with an increasing number of stochastically generated time series used. Notwithstanding this finding, it can be concluded that using a coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model has great potential for hydrological impact analysis.

  4. Stochastic Modeling and Analysis of Power System with Renewable Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan

    Unlike traditional fossil-fuel based power generation, renewable generation such as wind power relies on uncontrollable prime sources such as wind speed. Wind speed varies stochastically, which to a large extent determines the stochastic behavior of power generation from wind farms...... that such a stochastic model can be used to simulate the effect of load management on the load duration curve. As CHP units are turned on and off by regulating power, CHP generation has discrete output and thus can be modeled by a transition matrix based discrete Markov chain. As the CHP generation has a strong diurnal...

  5. Analysis Of First Fall And Last Spring Advection and Radiation-Advection Frosts In Azerbaijan Provinces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noohi, K.; Pedram, M.; Sahraian, F.; Kamali, G. A.

    2007-01-01

    Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC)Dates of first fall and last spring frosts on the basis of minimum shelter temperature equal or less than 0°C were determined for 12 synoptic stations for period 1986-2000 in Azerbaijan region. The advection frost was determined based on using of synoptic maps and studying of meteorological elements in different hours. In this work, we found that series of first fall and last spring advection and radiation-advection frosts are random and normally distributed. This study shows that on the average advection frosts start from 6 to 40 days later than radiation-advection frosts in fall and ends 2 to 25 days earlier in spring. Potential growing season that is interval between last spring and first fall advection frost is found to be from 5 to 65 days longer than the growing season defined by the interval from last spring to first fall occurrences of minimum temperature equal or less than 0°C. Crop protection against radiation frosts can bring about too much benefit. To assess whether practical protection of some special crops against radiation frosts is done or not, the number of radiation frosts before first advection frost in fall and after last advection frost in spring, were determined

  6. Extinction in neutrally stable stochastic Lotka-Volterra models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrinevski, Alexander; Frey, Erwin

    2012-05-01

    Populations of competing biological species exhibit a fascinating interplay between the nonlinear dynamics of evolutionary selection forces and random fluctuations arising from the stochastic nature of the interactions. The processes leading to extinction of species, whose understanding is a key component in the study of evolution and biodiversity, are influenced by both of these factors. Here, we investigate a class of stochastic population dynamics models based on generalized Lotka-Volterra systems. In the case of neutral stability of the underlying deterministic model, the impact of intrinsic noise on the survival of species is dramatic: It destroys coexistence of interacting species on a time scale proportional to the population size. We introduce a new method based on stochastic averaging which allows one to understand this extinction process quantitatively by reduction to a lower-dimensional effective dynamics. This is performed analytically for two highly symmetrical models and can be generalized numerically to more complex situations. The extinction probability distributions and other quantities of interest we obtain show excellent agreement with simulations.

  7. Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic

    CERN Document Server

    Kouvaritakis, Basil

    2016-01-01

    For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...

  8. Frost Induces Respiration and Accelerates Carbon Depletion in Trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperling, Or; Earles, J Mason; Secchi, Francesca; Godfrey, Jessie; Zwieniecki, Maciej A

    2015-01-01

    Cellular respiration depletes stored carbohydrates during extended periods of limited photosynthesis, e.g. winter dormancy or drought. As respiration rate is largely a function of temperature, the thermal conditions during such periods may affect non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) availability and, ultimately, recovery. Here, we surveyed stem responses to temperature changes in 15 woody species. For two species with divergent respirational response to frost, P. integerrima and P. trichocarpa, we also examined corresponding changes in NSC levels. Finally, we simulated respiration-induced NSC depletion using historical temperature data for the western US. We report a novel finding that tree stems significantly increase respiration in response to near freezing temperatures. We observed this excess respiration in 13 of 15 species, deviating 10% to 170% over values predicted by the Arrhenius equation. Excess respiration persisted at temperatures above 0 °C during warming and reoccurred over multiple frost-warming cycles. A large adjustment of NSCs accompanied excess respiration in P. integerrima, whereas P. trichocarpa neither excessively respired nor adjusted NSCs. Over the course of the years included in our model, frost-induced respiration accelerated stem NSC consumption by 8.4 mg (glucose eq.) cm(-3) yr(-1) on average in the western US, a level of depletion that may continue to significantly affect spring NSC availability. This novel finding revises the current paradigm of low temperature respiration kinetics.

  9. Frost Induces Respiration and Accelerates Carbon Depletion in Trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Or Sperling

    Full Text Available Cellular respiration depletes stored carbohydrates during extended periods of limited photosynthesis, e.g. winter dormancy or drought. As respiration rate is largely a function of temperature, the thermal conditions during such periods may affect non-structural carbohydrate (NSC availability and, ultimately, recovery. Here, we surveyed stem responses to temperature changes in 15 woody species. For two species with divergent respirational response to frost, P. integerrima and P. trichocarpa, we also examined corresponding changes in NSC levels. Finally, we simulated respiration-induced NSC depletion using historical temperature data for the western US. We report a novel finding that tree stems significantly increase respiration in response to near freezing temperatures. We observed this excess respiration in 13 of 15 species, deviating 10% to 170% over values predicted by the Arrhenius equation. Excess respiration persisted at temperatures above 0 °C during warming and reoccurred over multiple frost-warming cycles. A large adjustment of NSCs accompanied excess respiration in P. integerrima, whereas P. trichocarpa neither excessively respired nor adjusted NSCs. Over the course of the years included in our model, frost-induced respiration accelerated stem NSC consumption by 8.4 mg (glucose eq. cm(-3 yr(-1 on average in the western US, a level of depletion that may continue to significantly affect spring NSC availability. This novel finding revises the current paradigm of low temperature respiration kinetics.

  10. A low-bias simulation scheme for the SABR stochastic volatility model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Chen (Bin); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis); J.A.M. van der Weide

    2012-01-01

    htmlabstractThe Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho Stochastic Volatility (SABR-SV) model is widely used in the financial industry for the pricing of fixed income instruments. In this paper we develop an lowbias simulation scheme for the SABR-SV model, which deals efficiently with (undesired)

  11. Stochastic mixed-mode oscillations in a three-species predator-prey model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadhu, Susmita; Kuehn, Christian

    2018-03-01

    The effect of demographic stochasticity, in the form of Gaussian white noise, in a predator-prey model with one fast and two slow variables is studied. We derive the stochastic differential equations (SDEs) from a discrete model. For suitable parameter values, the deterministic drift part of the model admits a folded node singularity and exhibits a singular Hopf bifurcation. We focus on the parameter regime near the Hopf bifurcation, where small amplitude oscillations exist as stable dynamics in the absence of noise. In this regime, the stochastic model admits noise-driven mixed-mode oscillations (MMOs), which capture the intermediate dynamics between two cycles of population outbreaks. We perform numerical simulations to calculate the distribution of the random number of small oscillations between successive spikes for varying noise intensities and distance to the Hopf bifurcation. We also study the effect of noise on a suitable Poincaré map. Finally, we prove that the stochastic model can be transformed into a normal form near the folded node, which can be linked to recent results on the interplay between deterministic and stochastic small amplitude oscillations. The normal form can also be used to study the parameter influence on the noise level near folded singularities.

  12. Stochastic resonance in models of neuronal ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chialvo, D.R.; Longtin, A.; Mueller-Gerkin, J.

    1997-01-01

    Two recently suggested mechanisms for the neuronal encoding of sensory information involving the effect of stochastic resonance with aperiodic time-varying inputs are considered. It is shown, using theoretical arguments and numerical simulations, that the nonmonotonic behavior with increasing noise of the correlation measures used for the so-called aperiodic stochastic resonance (ASR) scenario does not rely on the cooperative effect typical of stochastic resonance in bistable and excitable systems. Rather, ASR with slowly varying signals is more properly interpreted as linearization by noise. Consequently, the broadening of the open-quotes resonance curveclose quotes in the multineuron stochastic resonance without tuning scenario can also be explained by this linearization. Computation of the input-output correlation as a function of both signal frequency and noise for the model system further reveals conditions where noise-induced firing with aperiodic inputs will benefit from stochastic resonance rather than linearization by noise. Thus, our study clarifies the tuning requirements for the optimal transduction of subthreshold aperiodic signals. It also shows that a single deterministic neuron can perform as well as a network when biased into a suprathreshold regime. Finally, we show that the inclusion of a refractory period in the spike-detection scheme produces a better correlation between instantaneous firing rate and input signal. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  13. A Rigorous Temperature-Dependent Stochastic Modelling and Testing for MEMS-Based Inertial Sensor Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spiros Pagiatakis

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we examine the effect of changing the temperature points on MEMS-based inertial sensor random error. We collect static data under different temperature points using a MEMS-based inertial sensor mounted inside a thermal chamber. Rigorous stochastic models, namely Autoregressive-based Gauss-Markov (AR-based GM models are developed to describe the random error behaviour. The proposed AR-based GM model is initially applied to short stationary inertial data to develop the stochastic model parameters (correlation times. It is shown that the stochastic model parameters of a MEMS-based inertial unit, namely the ADIS16364, are temperature dependent. In addition, field kinematic test data collected at about 17 °C are used to test the performance of the stochastic models at different temperature points in the filtering stage using Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF. It is shown that the stochastic model developed at 20 °C provides a more accurate inertial navigation solution than the ones obtained from the stochastic models developed at −40 °C, −20 °C, 0 °C, +40 °C, and +60 °C. The temperature dependence of the stochastic model is significant and should be considered at all times to obtain optimal navigation solution for MEMS-based INS/GPS integration.

  14. A Rigorous Temperature-Dependent Stochastic Modelling and Testing for MEMS-Based Inertial Sensor Errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Diasty, Mohammed; Pagiatakis, Spiros

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the effect of changing the temperature points on MEMS-based inertial sensor random error. We collect static data under different temperature points using a MEMS-based inertial sensor mounted inside a thermal chamber. Rigorous stochastic models, namely Autoregressive-based Gauss-Markov (AR-based GM) models are developed to describe the random error behaviour. The proposed AR-based GM model is initially applied to short stationary inertial data to develop the stochastic model parameters (correlation times). It is shown that the stochastic model parameters of a MEMS-based inertial unit, namely the ADIS16364, are temperature dependent. In addition, field kinematic test data collected at about 17 °C are used to test the performance of the stochastic models at different temperature points in the filtering stage using Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). It is shown that the stochastic model developed at 20 °C provides a more accurate inertial navigation solution than the ones obtained from the stochastic models developed at -40 °C, -20 °C, 0 °C, +40 °C, and +60 °C. The temperature dependence of the stochastic model is significant and should be considered at all times to obtain optimal navigation solution for MEMS-based INS/GPS integration.

  15. Stochastic volatility and multi-dimensional modeling in the European energy market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vos, Linda

    2012-07-01

    In energy prices there is evidence for stochastic volatility. Stochastic volatility has effect on the price of path-dependent options and therefore has to be modeled properly. We introduced a multi-dimensional non-Gaussian stochastic volatility model with leverage which can be used in energy pricing. It captures special features of energy prices like price spikes, mean-reversion, stochastic volatility and inverse leverage. Moreover it allows modeling dependencies between different commodities.The derived forward price dynamics based on this multi-variate spot price model, provides a very flexible structure. It includes cotango, backwardation and hump shape forward curves.Alternatively energy prices could be modeled by a 2-factor model consisting of a non-Gaussian stable CARMA process and a non-stationary trend models by a Levy process. Also this model is able to capture special features like price spikes, mean reversion and the low frequency dynamics in the market. An robust L1-filter is introduced to filter out the states of the CARMA process. When applying to German electricity EEX exchange data an overall negative risk-premium is found. However close to delivery a positive risk-premium is observed.(Author)

  16. Stochastic Load Models and Footbridge Response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Pedestrians may cause vibrations in footbridges and these vibrations may potentially be annoying. This calls for predictions of footbridge vibration levels and the paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the action of pedestrians assuming walking parameters such as step frequency, pedes...

  17. Delayed frost formation on hybrid nanostructured surfaces with patterned high wetting contrast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Youmin; Zhou, Peng; Yao, Shuhuai

    2014-11-01

    Engineering icephobic surfaces that can retard the frost formation and accumulation are important to vehicles, wind turbines, power lines, and HVAC systems. For condensation frosting, superhydrophobic surfaces promote self-removal of condensed droplets before freezing and consequently delay the frost growth. However, a small thermal fluctuation may lead to a Cassie-to-Wenzel transition, and thus dramatically enhance the frost formation and adhesion. In this work, we investigated the heterogeneous ice nucleation on hybrid nanostructured surfaces with patterned high wetting contrast. By judiciously introducing hydrophilic micro-patches into superhydrophobic nanostructured surface, we demonstrated that such a novel hybrid structure can efficiently defer the ice nucleation as compared to a superhydrophobic surface with nanostructures only. We observed efficient droplet jumping and higher coverage of droplets with diameter smaller than 10 μm, both of which suppress frost formation. The hybrid surface avoids the formation of liquid-bridges for Cassie-to-Wenzel transition, therefore eliminating the `bottom-up' droplet freezing from the cold substrate. These findings provide new insights to improve anti-frosting and anti-icing by using heterogeneous wettability in multiscale structures.

  18. On cross-currency models with stochastic volatility and correlated interest rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzelak, L.A.; Oosterlee, C.W.

    2010-01-01

    We construct multi-currency models with stochastic volatility and correlated stochastic interest rates with a full matrix of correlations. We first deal with a foreign exchange (FX) model of Heston-type, in which the domestic and foreign interest rates are generated by the short-rate process of

  19. On the Realistic Stochastic Model of GPS Observables: Implementation and Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zangeneh-Nejad, F.; Amiri-Simkooei, A. R.; Sharifi, M. A.; Asgari, J.

    2015-12-01

    High-precision GPS positioning requires a realistic stochastic model of observables. A realistic GPS stochastic model of observables should take into account different variances for different observation types, correlations among different observables, the satellite elevation dependence of observables precision, and the temporal correlation of observables. Least-squares variance component estimation (LS-VCE) is applied to GPS observables using the geometry-based observation model (GBOM). To model the satellite elevation dependent of GPS observables precision, an exponential model depending on the elevation angles of the satellites are also employed. Temporal correlation of the GPS observables is modelled by using a first-order autoregressive noise model. An important step in the high-precision GPS positioning is double difference integer ambiguity resolution (IAR). The fraction or percentage of success among a number of integer ambiguity fixing is called the success rate. A realistic estimation of the GNSS observables covariance matrix plays an important role in the IAR. We consider the ambiguity resolution success rate for two cases, namely a nominal and a realistic stochastic model of the GPS observables using two GPS data sets collected by the Trimble R8 receiver. The results confirm that applying a more realistic stochastic model can significantly improve the IAR success rate on individual frequencies, either on L1 or on L2. An improvement of 20% was achieved to the empirical success rate results. The results also indicate that introducing the realistic stochastic model leads to a larger standard deviation for the baseline components by a factor of about 2.6 on the data sets considered.

  20. Inexact Multistage Stochastic Chance Constrained Programming Model for Water Resources Management under Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to formulate water allocation schemes under uncertainties in the water resources management systems, an inexact multistage stochastic chance constrained programming (IMSCCP model is proposed. The model integrates stochastic chance constrained programming, multistage stochastic programming, and inexact stochastic programming within a general optimization framework to handle the uncertainties occurring in both constraints and objective. These uncertainties are expressed as probability distributions, interval with multiply distributed stochastic boundaries, dynamic features of the long-term water allocation plans, and so on. Compared with the existing inexact multistage stochastic programming, the IMSCCP can be used to assess more system risks and handle more complicated uncertainties in water resources management systems. The IMSCCP model is applied to a hypothetical case study of water resources management. In order to construct an approximate solution for the model, a hybrid algorithm, which incorporates stochastic simulation, back propagation neural network, and genetic algorithm, is proposed. The results show that the optimal value represents the maximal net system benefit achieved with a given confidence level under chance constraints, and the solutions provide optimal water allocation schemes to multiple users over a multiperiod planning horizon.

  1. The Role of Stochastic Models in Interpreting the Origins of Biological Chirality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gábor Lente

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available This review summarizes recent stochastic modeling efforts in the theoretical research aimed at interpreting the origins of biological chirality. Stochastic kinetic models, especially those based on the continuous time discrete state approach, have great potential in modeling absolute asymmetric reactions, experimental examples of which have been reported in the past decade. An overview of the relevant mathematical background is given and several examples are presented to show how the significant numerical problems characteristic of the use of stochastic models can be overcome by non-trivial, but elementary algebra. In these stochastic models, a particulate view of matter is used rather than the concentration-based view of traditional chemical kinetics using continuous functions to describe the properties system. This has the advantage of giving adequate description of single-molecule events, which were probably important in the origin of biological chirality. The presented models can interpret and predict the random distribution of enantiomeric excess among repetitive experiments, which is the most striking feature of absolute asymmetric reactions. It is argued that the use of the stochastic kinetic approach should be much more widespread in the relevant literature.

  2. Moment Closure for the Stochastic Logistic Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Singh, Abhyudai; Hespanha, Joao P

    2006-01-01

    ..., which we refer to as the moment closure function. In this paper, a systematic procedure for constructing moment closure functions of arbitrary order is presented for the stochastic logistic model...

  3. Stochastic persistence and stationary distribution in an SIS epidemic model with media coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Wenjuan; Cai, Yongli; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

    2018-02-01

    This paper aims to study an SIS epidemic model with media coverage from a general deterministic model to a stochastic differential equation with environment fluctuation. Mathematically, we use the Markov semigroup theory to prove that the basic reproduction number R0s can be used to control the dynamics of stochastic system. Epidemiologically, we show that environment fluctuation can inhibit the occurrence of the disease, namely, in the case of disease persistence for the deterministic model, the disease still dies out with probability one for the stochastic model. So to a great extent the stochastic perturbation under media coverage affects the outbreak of the disease.

  4. Persistence and extinction for a stochastic logistic model with infinite delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Lu

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This article, studies a stochastic logistic model with infinite delay. Using a phase space, we establish sufficient conditions for the extinction, nonpersistence in the mean, weak persistence, and stochastic permanence. A threshold between weak persistence and extinction is obtained. Our results state that different types of environmental noises have different effects on the persistence and extinction, and that the delay has no impact on the persistence and extinction for the stochastic model in the autonomous case. Numerical simulations illustrate the theoretical results.

  5. Stochastic modeling for reliability shocks, burn-in and heterogeneous populations

    CERN Document Server

    Finkelstein, Maxim

    2013-01-01

    Focusing on shocks modeling, burn-in and heterogeneous populations, Stochastic Modeling for Reliability naturally combines these three topics in the unified stochastic framework and presents numerous practical examples that illustrate recent theoretical findings of the authors.  The populations of manufactured items in industry are usually heterogeneous. However, the conventional reliability analysis is performed under the implicit assumption of homogeneity, which can result in distortion of the corresponding reliability indices and various misconceptions. Stochastic Modeling for Reliability fills this gap and presents the basics and further developments of reliability theory for heterogeneous populations. Specifically, the authors consider burn-in as a method of elimination of ‘weak’ items from heterogeneous populations. The real life objects are operating in a changing environment. One of the ways to model an impact of this environment is via the external shocks occurring in accordance with some stocha...

  6. 77 FR 26321 - Reed College, Reed Research Nuclear Reactor, Renewed Facility Operating License No. R-112

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ... Nuclear Reactor, Renewed Facility Operating License No. R-112 AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission... Commission (NRC or the Commission) has issued renewed Facility Operating License No. R- 112, held by Reed... License No. R-112 will expire 20 years from its date of issuance. The renewed facility operating license...

  7. Some recent developments in stochastic volatility modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler; Nicolato, Elisa; Shephard, N.

    2002-01-01

    This paper reviews and puts in context some of our recent work on stochastic volatility (SV) modelling for financial economics. Here our main focus is on: (i) the relationship between subordination and SV, (ii) OU based volatility models, (iii) exact option pricing, (iv) realized power variation...

  8. Scalable inference for stochastic block models

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin

    2017-12-08

    Community detection in graphs is widely used in social and biological networks, and the stochastic block model is a powerful probabilistic tool for describing graphs with community structures. However, in the era of "big data," traditional inference algorithms for such a model are increasingly limited due to their high time complexity and poor scalability. In this paper, we propose a multi-stage maximum likelihood approach to recover the latent parameters of the stochastic block model, in time linear with respect to the number of edges. We also propose a parallel algorithm based on message passing. Our algorithm can overlap communication and computation, providing speedup without compromising accuracy as the number of processors grows. For example, to process a real-world graph with about 1.3 million nodes and 10 million edges, our algorithm requires about 6 seconds on 64 cores of a contemporary commodity Linux cluster. Experiments demonstrate that the algorithm can produce high quality results on both benchmark and real-world graphs. An example of finding more meaningful communities is illustrated consequently in comparison with a popular modularity maximization algorithm.

  9. A stochastic analysis for a phytoplankton-zooplankton model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ge, G; Wang, H-L; Xu, J

    2008-01-01

    A simple phytoplankton-zooplankton nonlinear dynamical model was proposed to study the coexistence of all the species and a Hopf bifurcation was observed. In order to study the effect of environmental robustness on this system, we have stochastically perturbed the system with respect to white noise around its positive interior equilibrium. We have observed that the system remains stochastically stable around the positive equilibrium for same parametric values in the deterministic situation

  10. Analysis of heat transfer and frost layer formation on a cryogenic tank wall exposed to the humid atmospheric air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kyoung-Hoon; Ko, Hyung-Jong; Kim, Kyoungjin; Kim, Yong-Wook; Cho, Kie-Joo

    2009-01-01

    In this paper heat transfer characteristics and frost layer formation are investigated numerically on the surface of a cryogenic oxidizer tank for a liquid propulsion rocket, where a frost layer could be a significant factor in maintaining oxidizer temperature within a required range. Frost formation is modeled by considering mass diffusion of water vapor in the air into the frost layer and various heat transfer modes such as natural and forced convection, latent heat, solar radiation of short wavelength, and ambient radiation of long wavelength. Computational results are first compared with the available measurements and show favorable agreement on thickness and effective thermal conductivity of the frost layer. In the case of the cryogenic tank, a series of parametric studies is presented in order to examine the effects of important parameters such as temperature and wind speed of ambient air, air humidity, and tank wall temperature on the frost layer formation and the amount of heat transfer into the tank. It is found that the heat transfer by solar radiation is significant and also that heat transfer strongly depends on air humidity, ambient air temperature, and wind speed but not tank wall temperature.

  11. Noncontact modal analysis of a pipe organ reed using airborne ultrasound stimulated vibrometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Thomas M.; Fatemi, Mostafa; Kinnick, Randall R.; Greenleaf, James F.

    2004-05-01

    The goal of this experiment was to excite and measure, in a noncontact manner, the vibrational modes of the reed from a reed organ pipe. To perform ultrasound stimulated excitation, two ultrasound beams in air of different frequencies were directed at the reed; the audio-range beat frequency between these ultrasound beams induced vibrations. The resulting vibrational deflection shapes were measured with a scanning vibrometer. The modes of any relatively small object can be studied in air using this technique. For a 36 mm by 7 mm clamped brass reed cantilever, displacements and velocites of 5 μ and 4 mm/s could be imparted at the fundamental frequency of 145 Hz. Using the same ultrasound transducer, excitation across the entire range of audio frequencies was obtained, which was not possible using audio excitation with a speaker. Since the beam was focused on the reed, ultrasound stimulated excitation eliminated background effects observed during mechanical shaker excitation, such as vibrations of clamps and supports. We will discuss the results obtained using single, dual, and confocal ultrasound transducers in AM and unmodulated CW modes, along with results obtained using a mechanical shaker and audio excitation using a speaker.

  12. ARMA modeling of stochastic processes in nuclear reactor with significant detection noise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zavaljevski, N.

    1992-01-01

    The theoretical basis of ARMA modelling of stochastic processes in nuclear reactor was presented in a previous paper, neglecting observational noise. The identification of real reactor data indicated that in some experiments the detection noise is significant. Thus a more rigorous theoretical modelling of stochastic processes in nuclear reactor is performed. Starting from the fundamental stochastic differential equations of the Langevin type for the interaction of the detector with neutron field, a new theoretical ARMA model is developed. preliminary identification results confirm the theoretical expectations. (author)

  13. Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimp, Steven; Jin, Huidong; Kokic, Philip; Bakar, Shuvo; Nicholls, Neville

    2018-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change has already been shown to effect the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and seasonality of extreme climate events. Understanding these changes is an important step in determining exposure, vulnerability and focus for adaptation. In an attempt to support adaptation decision-making we have examined statistical modelling techniques to improve the representation of global climate model (GCM) derived projections of minimum temperature extremes (frosts) in Australia. We examine the spatial changes in minimum temperature extreme metrics (e.g. monthly and seasonal frost frequency etc.), for a region exhibiting the strongest station trends in Australia, and compare these changes with minimum temperature extreme metrics derived from 10 GCMs, from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) datasets, and via statistical downscaling. We compare the observed trends with those derived from the "raw" GCM minimum temperature data as well as examine whether quantile matching (QM) or spatio-temporal (spTimerQM) modelling with Quantile Matching can be used to improve the correlation between observed and simulated extreme minimum temperatures. We demonstrate, that the spTimerQM modelling approach provides correlations with observed daily minimum temperatures for the period August to November of 0.22. This represents an almost fourfold improvement over either the "raw" GCM or QM results. The spTimerQM modelling approach also improves correlations with observed monthly frost frequency statistics to 0.84 as opposed to 0.37 and 0.81 for the "raw" GCM and QM results respectively. We apply the spatio-temporal model to examine future extreme minimum temperature projections for the period 2016 to 2048. The spTimerQM modelling results suggest the persistence of current levels of frost risk out to 2030, with the evidence of continuing decadal variation.

  14. INFERENCE AND SENSITIVITY IN STOCHASTIC WIND POWER FORECAST MODELS.

    KAUST Repository

    Elkantassi, Soumaya

    2017-10-03

    Reliable forecasting of wind power generation is crucial to optimal control of costs in generation of electricity with respect to the electricity demand. Here, we propose and analyze stochastic wind power forecast models described by parametrized stochastic differential equations, which introduce appropriate fluctuations in numerical forecast outputs. We use an approximate maximum likelihood method to infer the model parameters taking into account the time correlated sets of data. Furthermore, we study the validity and sensitivity of the parameters for each model. We applied our models to Uruguayan wind power production as determined by historical data and corresponding numerical forecasts for the period of March 1 to May 31, 2016.

  15. INFERENCE AND SENSITIVITY IN STOCHASTIC WIND POWER FORECAST MODELS.

    KAUST Repository

    Elkantassi, Soumaya; Kalligiannaki, Evangelia; Tempone, Raul

    2017-01-01

    Reliable forecasting of wind power generation is crucial to optimal control of costs in generation of electricity with respect to the electricity demand. Here, we propose and analyze stochastic wind power forecast models described by parametrized stochastic differential equations, which introduce appropriate fluctuations in numerical forecast outputs. We use an approximate maximum likelihood method to infer the model parameters taking into account the time correlated sets of data. Furthermore, we study the validity and sensitivity of the parameters for each model. We applied our models to Uruguayan wind power production as determined by historical data and corresponding numerical forecasts for the period of March 1 to May 31, 2016.

  16. Optimum soil frost depth to alleviate climate change effects in cold region agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanai, Yosuke; Iwata, Yukiyoshi; Hirota, Tomoyoshi

    2017-03-21

    On-farm soil frost control has been used for the management of volunteer potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.), a serious weed problem caused by climate change, in northern Japan. Deep soil frost penetration is necessary for the effective eradication of unharvested small potato tubers; however, this process can delay soil thaw and increase soil wetting in spring, thereby delaying agricultural activity initiation and increasing nitrous oxide emissions from soil. Conversely, shallow soil frost development helps over-wintering of unharvested potato tubers and nitrate leaching from surface soil owing to the periodic infiltration of snowmelt water. In this study, we synthesised on-farm snow cover manipulation experiments to determine the optimum soil frost depth that can eradicate unharvested potato tubers without affecting agricultural activity initiation while minimising N pollution from agricultural soil. The optimum soil frost depth was estimated to be 0.28-0.33 m on the basis of the annual maximum soil frost depth. Soil frost control is a promising practice to alleviate climate change effects on agriculture in cold regions, which was initiated by local farmers and further promoted by national and local research institutes.

  17. Optimum soil frost depth to alleviate climate change effects in cold region agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanai, Yosuke; Iwata, Yukiyoshi; Hirota, Tomoyoshi

    2017-03-01

    On-farm soil frost control has been used for the management of volunteer potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.), a serious weed problem caused by climate change, in northern Japan. Deep soil frost penetration is necessary for the effective eradication of unharvested small potato tubers; however, this process can delay soil thaw and increase soil wetting in spring, thereby delaying agricultural activity initiation and increasing nitrous oxide emissions from soil. Conversely, shallow soil frost development helps over-wintering of unharvested potato tubers and nitrate leaching from surface soil owing to the periodic infiltration of snowmelt water. In this study, we synthesised on-farm snow cover manipulation experiments to determine the optimum soil frost depth that can eradicate unharvested potato tubers without affecting agricultural activity initiation while minimising N pollution from agricultural soil. The optimum soil frost depth was estimated to be 0.28-0.33 m on the basis of the annual maximum soil frost depth. Soil frost control is a promising practice to alleviate climate change effects on agriculture in cold regions, which was initiated by local farmers and further promoted by national and local research institutes.

  18. Parameter discovery in stochastic biological models using simulated annealing and statistical model checking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Faraz; Jha, Sumit K; Jha, Susmit; Langmead, Christopher J

    2014-01-01

    Stochastic models are increasingly used to study the behaviour of biochemical systems. While the structure of such models is often readily available from first principles, unknown quantitative features of the model are incorporated into the model as parameters. Algorithmic discovery of parameter values from experimentally observed facts remains a challenge for the computational systems biology community. We present a new parameter discovery algorithm that uses simulated annealing, sequential hypothesis testing, and statistical model checking to learn the parameters in a stochastic model. We apply our technique to a model of glucose and insulin metabolism used for in-silico validation of artificial pancreata and demonstrate its effectiveness by developing parallel CUDA-based implementation for parameter synthesis in this model.

  19. Changes in phenology and frost risks of

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Kartschall

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available For a retrospective period of 110 years between 1901 and 2010 (observed data, and for the subsequent future period between 2011 and 2100 we calculated the phenological development (bud burst, harvest ripeness, and in particular the spring frost risk (frost after bud burst, as one important derived variable for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. cv Riesling for the whole of Germany. For the future climate we included two different scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP2.6 each of them containing a triple set with minimum, medium and maximum temperature increase. The time period between 1981 and 2010 as the last three decades in the observed data was chosen as reference. In general we found an acceleration of the phenological development (all main phases mainly beginning in the late 1980s. For the three-decade period between 2031 and 2060 this acceleration will reach 11±3$11\\pm3$ days in the RCP8.5-scenario. The acceleration for the other stages behaved similarly and results in an earlier harvest ripeness of 13±1$13\\pm1$ days. Since a warmer spring in general leads to earlier bud burst, but does not reduce the risk of frost events during this period in the same manner, changes in the risk of spring frost damage were relatively small. For the coming decades this risk will not decrease for all traditional German viticultural regions in the RCP8.5-scenarios; on the contrary, our results suggest it is likely to increase. The results showed an increasing spring frost risk not only for the debated “upcoming” potential viticultural areas in eastern Germany, an effect which will partly also reach the southernmost viticultural areas. This effect in northern and eastern Germany is due to earlier bud burst together with the stronger continental influence, but for the southern and western regions of Germany is mainly due to the even earlier bud burst. This could modify the regionally nuanced character of German wines.

  20. Retrieving aboveground biomass of wetland Phragmites australis (common reed) using a combination of airborne discrete-return LiDAR and hyperspectral data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Shezhou; Wang, Cheng; Xi, Xiaohuan; Pan, Feifei; Qian, Mingjie; Peng, Dailiang; Nie, Sheng; Qin, Haiming; Lin, Yi

    2017-06-01

    Wetland biomass is essential for monitoring the stability and productivity of wetland ecosystems. Conventional field methods to measure or estimate wetland biomass are accurate and reliable, but expensive, time consuming and labor intensive. This research explored the potential for estimating wetland reed biomass using a combination of airborne discrete-return Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and hyperspectral data. To derive the optimal predictor variables of reed biomass, a range of LiDAR and hyperspectral metrics at different spatial scales were regressed against the field-observed biomasses. The results showed that the LiDAR-derived H_p99 (99th percentile of the LiDAR height) and hyperspectral-calculated modified soil-adjusted vegetation index (MSAVI) were the best metrics for estimating reed biomass using the single regression model. Although the LiDAR data yielded a higher estimation accuracy compared to the hyperspectral data, the combination of LiDAR and hyperspectral data produced a more accurate prediction model for reed biomass (R2 = 0.648, RMSE = 167.546 g/m2, RMSEr = 20.71%) than LiDAR data alone. Thus, combining LiDAR data with hyperspectral data has a great potential for improving the accuracy of aboveground biomass estimation.

  1. Stochastic modelling in design of mechanical properties of nanometals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tengen, T.B.; Wejrzanowski, T.; Iwankiewicz, R.; Kurzydlowski, K.J.

    2010-01-01

    Polycrystalline nanometals are being fabricated through different processing routes and conditions. The consequence is that nanometals having the same mean grain size may have different grain size dispersion and, hence, may have different material properties. This has often led to conflicting reports from both theoretical and experimental findings about the evolutions of the mechanical properties of nanomaterials. The present paper employs stochastic model to study the impact of microstructure evolution during grain growth on the mechanical properties of polycrystalline nanometals. The stochastic model for grain growth and the stochastic model for changes in mechanical properties of nanomaterials are proposed. The model for the mechanical properties developed is tested on aluminium samples.Many salient features of the mechanical properties of the aluminium samples are revealed. The results show that the different mechanisms of grain growth impart different nature of response to the material mechanical properties. The conventional, homologous and anomalous temperature dependences of the yield stress have also been revealed to be due to different nature of interactions of the microstructures during evolution.

  2. Bayesian inference for hybrid discrete-continuous stochastic kinetic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherlock, Chris; Golightly, Andrew; Gillespie, Colin S

    2014-01-01

    We consider the problem of efficiently performing simulation and inference for stochastic kinetic models. Whilst it is possible to work directly with the resulting Markov jump process (MJP), computational cost can be prohibitive for networks of realistic size and complexity. In this paper, we consider an inference scheme based on a novel hybrid simulator that classifies reactions as either ‘fast’ or ‘slow’ with fast reactions evolving as a continuous Markov process whilst the remaining slow reaction occurrences are modelled through a MJP with time-dependent hazards. A linear noise approximation (LNA) of fast reaction dynamics is employed and slow reaction events are captured by exploiting the ability to solve the stochastic differential equation driving the LNA. This simulation procedure is used as a proposal mechanism inside a particle MCMC scheme, thus allowing Bayesian inference for the model parameters. We apply the scheme to a simple application and compare the output with an existing hybrid approach and also a scheme for performing inference for the underlying discrete stochastic model. (paper)

  3. Fitting Social Network Models Using Varying Truncation Stochastic Approximation MCMC Algorithm

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Ick Hoon

    2013-10-01

    The exponential random graph model (ERGM) plays a major role in social network analysis. However, parameter estimation for the ERGM is a hard problem due to the intractability of its normalizing constant and the model degeneracy. The existing algorithms, such as Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation (MCMLE) and stochastic approximation, often fail for this problem in the presence of model degeneracy. In this article, we introduce the varying truncation stochastic approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo (SAMCMC) algorithm to tackle this problem. The varying truncation mechanism enables the algorithm to choose an appropriate starting point and an appropriate gain factor sequence, and thus to produce a reasonable parameter estimate for the ERGM even in the presence of model degeneracy. The numerical results indicate that the varying truncation SAMCMC algorithm can significantly outperform the MCMLE and stochastic approximation algorithms: for degenerate ERGMs, MCMLE and stochastic approximation often fail to produce any reasonable parameter estimates, while SAMCMC can do; for nondegenerate ERGMs, SAMCMC can work as well as or better than MCMLE and stochastic approximation. The data and source codes used for this article are available online as supplementary materials. © 2013 American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and Interface Foundation of North America.

  4. Research on frost formation in air source heat pump at cold-moist conditions in central-south China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong, Guangcai; Tang, Jinchen; Lv, Dongyan; Wang, Hongjin

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ►A dynamic evaporator model is built up. ► The model involves the ratio of the latent heat to sensible heat of wet air. ►A correlation considering d eq is shown below to predict frost accumulation: (M fr v 3 )/(Ψd eq 2 ) =((T a )/(T w ) ) 0.1 ((vτ)/(d eq ) ) 0.7 (l/(d eq ) ) 1.378 X a 1.228 . ►The changing ratio can characterize the early development of system performance. ►The changing ratio can characterize the early development of frost accumulation. -- Abstract: A dynamic evaporator model of air source heat pump (ASHP), considering the ratio of the latent heat to sensible heat of wet air, is presented to analyze the performance of ASHP under frosting. The performance parameters, such as the heating capacity, COP and the outlet temperature of compressor, are simulated with CYCLEPAD. Then a semi-empirical correlation that predicts frost accumulation on the air-side of fin-tube heat exchanger is developed with dimensionless analysis and also modified by a test conducted under cold-moist conditions in winter. In addition, eight influence factors are considered involving the ambient conditions and structures of heat exchanger, whose effects are analyzed as well. Among them, the equivalent diameter of air flow cross-section in fin-tube d eq is especially proposed. Lastly, the relationships between the ratio, the performance parameters and the frost accumulation are discussed in this paper, followed by an evaluation of an optimal defrosting time interval to improve the ASHP’s energy efficiency and operational reliability at cold-moist conditions in central-south China.

  5. Frost resistance of reproductive tissues during various stages of development in high mountain plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuner, Gilbert; Erler, Agnes; Ladinig, Ursula; Hacker, Jürgen; Wagner, Johanna

    2013-01-01

    Frost resistance of reproductive vs aboveground vegetative structures was determined for six common European high alpine plant species that can be exposed to frosts throughout their whole reproductive cycle. Freezing tests were carried out in the bud, anthesis and fruit stage. Stigma and style, ovary, placenta, ovule, flower stalk/peduncle and, in Ranunculus glacialis, the receptacle were separately investigated. In all species, the vegetative organs tolerated on an average 2-5 K lower freezing temperatures than the most frost-susceptible reproductive structures that differed in their frost resistance. In almost all species, stigma, style and the flower stalk/peduncle were the most frost-susceptible reproductive structures. Initial frost damage (LT₁₀) to the most susceptible reproductive structure usually occurred between -2 and -4°C independent of the reproductive stage. The median LT₅₀ across species for stigma and style ranged between -3.4 and -3.7°C and matched the mean ice nucleation temperature (-3.7 ± 1.4°C). In R. glacialis, the flower stalk was the most frost-susceptible structure (-5.4°C), and was in contrast to the other species ice-tolerant. The ovule and the placenta were usually the most frost-resistant structures. During reproductive development, frost resistance (LT₅₀) of single reproductive structures mostly showed no significant change. However, significant increases or decreases were also observed (2.1 ± 1.2 K). Reproductive tissues of nival species generally tolerated lower temperatures than species occurring in the alpine zone. The low frost resistance of reproductive structures before, during and shortly after anthesis increases the probability of frost damage and thus, may restrict successful sexual plant reproduction with increasing altitude. Copyright © Physiologia Plantarum 2012.

  6. Classification and Monitoring of Reed Belts Using Dual-Polarimetric TerraSAR-X Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iris Heine

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Synthetic aperture radar polarimetry (PolSAR and polarimetric decomposition techniques have proven to be useful tools for wetland mapping. In this study we classify reed belts and monitor their phenological changes at a natural lake in northeastern Germany using dual-co-polarized (HH, VV TerraSAR-X time series. The time series comprises 19 images, acquired between August 2014 and May 2015, in ascending and descending orbit. We calculated different polarimetric indices using the HH and VV intensities, the dual-polarimetric coherency matrix including dominant and mean alpha scattering angles, and entropy and anisotropy (normalized eigenvalue difference as well as combinations of entropy and anisotropy for the analysis of the scattering scenarios. The image classifications were performed with the random forest classifier and validated with high-resolution digital orthophotos. The time series analysis of the reed belts revealed significant seasonal changes for the double-bounce–sensitive parameters (intensity ratio HH/VV and intensity difference HH-VV, the co-polarimetric coherence phase and the dominant and mean alpha scattering angles and in the dual-polarimetric coherence (amplitude, anisotropy, entropy, and anisotropy-entropy combinations; whereas in summer dense leaves cause volume scattering, in winter, after leaves have fallen, the reed stems cause predominately double-bounce scattering. Our study showed that the five most important parameters for the classification of reed are the intensity difference HH-VV, the mean alpha scattering angle, intensity ratio HH/VV, and the coherence (phase. Due to the better separation of reed and other vegetation (deciduous forest, coniferous forest, meadow, winter acquisitions are preferred for the mapping of reed. Multi-temporal stacks of winter images performed better than summer ones. The combination of ascending and descending images also improved the result as it reduces the influence of the sensor

  7. Long-term water absorption tests for frost insulation materials taking into account frost attack

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toni A. Pakkala

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Water absorption of several different frost insulation materials was tested for four years. The test took into account both immersion and frost attack to materials. On the basis of the research the water absorption on XPS specimens is significantly minor compared to EPS specimens that were studied. The most significant result was that freezing of test specimens did not affect on water absorption of XPS specimens but had a major effect on water absorption of EPS specimens. With frozen EPS specimen the absorption continued increasing even after 48 months of immersion. Presumably the reason for such a behaviour is that the pore structure of EPS is not able to resist the tension caused by freezing water and therefore cracks are formed. Thus, more water absorbs inside the EPS through the cracks and it causes cracking deeper in the specimen which is why absorption increases after every freezing period.

  8. Double diffusivity model under stochastic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyay, Amit K.; Aifantis, Elias C.

    2017-05-01

    The "double diffusivity" model was proposed in the late 1970s, and reworked in the early 1980s, as a continuum counterpart to existing discrete models of diffusion corresponding to high diffusivity paths, such as grain boundaries and dislocation lines. It was later rejuvenated in the 1990s to interpret experimental results on diffusion in polycrystalline and nanocrystalline specimens where grain boundaries and triple grain boundary junctions act as high diffusivity paths. Technically, the model pans out as a system of coupled Fick-type diffusion equations to represent "regular" and "high" diffusivity paths with "source terms" accounting for the mass exchange between the two paths. The model remit was extended by analogy to describe flow in porous media with double porosity, as well as to model heat conduction in media with two nonequilibrium local temperature baths, e.g., ion and electron baths. Uncoupling of the two partial differential equations leads to a higher-ordered diffusion equation, solutions of which could be obtained in terms of classical diffusion equation solutions. Similar equations could also be derived within an "internal length" gradient (ILG) mechanics formulation applied to diffusion problems, i.e., by introducing nonlocal effects, together with inertia and viscosity, in a mechanics based formulation of diffusion theory. While being remarkably successful in studies related to various aspects of transport in inhomogeneous media with deterministic microstructures and nanostructures, its implications in the presence of stochasticity have not yet been considered. This issue becomes particularly important in the case of diffusion in nanopolycrystals whose deterministic ILG-based theoretical calculations predict a relaxation time that is only about one-tenth of the actual experimentally verified time scale. This article provides the "missing link" in this estimation by adding a vital element in the ILG structure, that of stochasticity, that takes into

  9. Identification and Verification of QTL Associated with Frost Tolerance Using Linkage Mapping and GWAS in Winter Faba Bean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallam, Ahmed; Arbaoui, Mustapha; El-Esawi, Mohamed; Abshire, Nathan; Martsch, Regina

    2016-01-01

    Frost stress is one of the abiotic stresses that causes a significant reduction in winter faba bean yield in Europe. The main objective of this work is to genetically improve frost tolerance in winter faba bean by identifying and validating QTL associated with frost tolerance to be used in marker-assisted selection (MAS). Two different genetic backgrounds were used: a biparental population (BPP) consisting of 101 inbred lines, and 189 genotypes from single seed descent (SSD) from the Gottingen Winter bean Population (GWBP). All experiments were conducted in a frost growth chamber under controlled conditions. Both populations were genotyped using the same set of 189 SNP markers. Visual scoring for frost stress symptoms was used to define frost tolerance in both populations. In addition, leaf fatty acid composition (FAC) and proline content were analyzed in BPP as physiological traits. QTL mapping (for BPP) and genome wide association studies (for GWBP) were performed to detect QTL associated with frost tolerance. High genetic variation between genotypes, and repeatability estimates, were found for all traits. QTL mapping and GWAS identified new putative QTL associated with promising frost tolerance and related traits. A set of 54 SNP markers common in both genetic backgrounds showed a high genetic diversity with polymorphic information content (PIC) ranging from 0.31 to 0.37 and gene diversity ranging from 0.39 to 0.50. This indicates that these markers may be polymorphic for many faba bean populations. Five SNP markers showed a significant marker-trait association with frost tolerance and related traits in both populations. Moreover, synteny analysis between Medicago truncatula (a model legume) and faba bean genomes was performed to identify candidate genes for these markers. Collinearity was evaluated between the faba bean genetic map constructed in this study and the faba bean consensus map, resulting in identifying possible genomic regions in faba bean which may

  10. Identification and Verification of QTL Associated with Frost Tolerance Using Linkage Mapping and GWAS in Winter Faba Bean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallam, Ahmed; Arbaoui, Mustapha; El-Esawi, Mohamed; Abshire, Nathan; Martsch, Regina

    2016-01-01

    Frost stress is one of the abiotic stresses that causes a significant reduction in winter faba bean yield in Europe. The main objective of this work is to genetically improve frost tolerance in winter faba bean by identifying and validating QTL associated with frost tolerance to be used in marker-assisted selection (MAS). Two different genetic backgrounds were used: a biparental population (BPP) consisting of 101 inbred lines, and 189 genotypes from single seed descent (SSD) from the Gottingen Winter bean Population (GWBP). All experiments were conducted in a frost growth chamber under controlled conditions. Both populations were genotyped using the same set of 189 SNP markers. Visual scoring for frost stress symptoms was used to define frost tolerance in both populations. In addition, leaf fatty acid composition (FAC) and proline content were analyzed in BPP as physiological traits. QTL mapping (for BPP) and genome wide association studies (for GWBP) were performed to detect QTL associated with frost tolerance. High genetic variation between genotypes, and repeatability estimates, were found for all traits. QTL mapping and GWAS identified new putative QTL associated with promising frost tolerance and related traits. A set of 54 SNP markers common in both genetic backgrounds showed a high genetic diversity with polymorphic information content (PIC) ranging from 0.31 to 0.37 and gene diversity ranging from 0.39 to 0.50. This indicates that these markers may be polymorphic for many faba bean populations. Five SNP markers showed a significant marker-trait association with frost tolerance and related traits in both populations. Moreover, synteny analysis between Medicago truncatula (a model legume) and faba bean genomes was performed to identify candidate genes for these markers. Collinearity was evaluated between the faba bean genetic map constructed in this study and the faba bean consensus map, resulting in identifying possible genomic regions in faba bean which may

  11. Stochastic modeling concepts in groundwater and risk assessment: potential application to marine problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamed, Maged M.

    2000-01-01

    Parameter uncertainty is ubiquitous in marine environmental processes. Failure to account for this uncertainty may lead to erroneous results, and may have significant environmental and economic ramifications. Stochastic modeling of oil spill transport and fate is, therefore, central in the development of an oil spill contingency plan for new oil and gas projects. Over the past twenty years, several stochastic modeling tools have been developed for modeling parameter uncertainty, including the spectral, perturbation, and simulation methods. In this work we explore the application of a new stochastic methodology, the first-order reliability method (FORM), in oil spill modeling. FORM was originally developed in the structural reliability field and has been recently applied to various environmental problems. The method has many appealing features that makes it a powerful tool for modeling complex environmental systems. The theory of FORM is presented, identifying the features that distinguish the method from other stochastic tools. Different formulations to the reliability-based stochastic oil spill modeling are presented in a decision-analytic context. (Author)

  12. Stochastic modeling analysis and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Nelson, Barry L

    1995-01-01

    A coherent introduction to the techniques for modeling dynamic stochastic systems, this volume also offers a guide to the mathematical, numerical, and simulation tools of systems analysis. Suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduate-level industrial engineers and management science majors, it proposes modeling systems in terms of their simulation, regardless of whether simulation is employed for analysis. Beginning with a view of the conditions that permit a mathematical-numerical analysis, the text explores Poisson and renewal processes, Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, se

  13. Digital hardware implementation of a stochastic two-dimensional neuron model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassia, F; Kohno, T; Levi, T

    2016-11-01

    This study explores the feasibility of stochastic neuron simulation in digital systems (FPGA), which realizes an implementation of a two-dimensional neuron model. The stochasticity is added by a source of current noise in the silicon neuron using an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. This approach uses digital computation to emulate individual neuron behavior using fixed point arithmetic operation. The neuron model's computations are performed in arithmetic pipelines. It was designed in VHDL language and simulated prior to mapping in the FPGA. The experimental results confirmed the validity of the developed stochastic FPGA implementation, which makes the implementation of the silicon neuron more biologically plausible for future hybrid experiments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Stochastic modelling of conjugate heat transfer in near-wall turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pozorski, Jacek; Minier, Jean-Pierre

    2006-01-01

    The paper addresses the conjugate heat transfer in turbulent flows with temperature assumed to be a passive scalar. The Lagrangian approach is applied and the heat transfer is modelled with the use of stochastic particles. The intensity of thermal fluctuations in near-wall turbulence is determined from the scalar probability density function (PDF) with externally provided dynamical statistics. A stochastic model for the temperature field in the wall material is proposed and boundary conditions for stochastic particles at the solid-fluid interface are formulated. The heated channel flow with finite-thickness walls is considered as a validation case. Computation results for the mean temperature profiles and the variance of thermal fluctuations are presented and compared with available DNS data

  15. Stochastic modelling of conjugate heat transfer in near-wall turbulence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pozorski, Jacek [Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery, Polish Academy of Sciences, Fiszera 14, 80952 Gdansk (Poland)]. E-mail: jp@imp.gda.pl; Minier, Jean-Pierre [Research and Development Division, Electricite de France, 6 quai Watier, 78400 Chatou (France)

    2006-10-15

    The paper addresses the conjugate heat transfer in turbulent flows with temperature assumed to be a passive scalar. The Lagrangian approach is applied and the heat transfer is modelled with the use of stochastic particles. The intensity of thermal fluctuations in near-wall turbulence is determined from the scalar probability density function (PDF) with externally provided dynamical statistics. A stochastic model for the temperature field in the wall material is proposed and boundary conditions for stochastic particles at the solid-fluid interface are formulated. The heated channel flow with finite-thickness walls is considered as a validation case. Computation results for the mean temperature profiles and the variance of thermal fluctuations are presented and compared with available DNS data.

  16. Analysis and reconstruction of stochastic coupled map lattice models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coca, Daniel; Billings, Stephen A.

    2003-01-01

    The Letter introduces a general stochastic coupled lattice map model together with an algorithm to estimate the nodal equations involved based only on a small set of observable variables and in the presence of stochastic perturbations. More general forms of the Frobenius-Perron and the transfer operators, which describe the evolution of densities under the action of the CML transformation, are derived

  17. Hardware/Software Co-design Applied to Reed-Solomon Decoding for the DMB Standard

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dam, A.C.; Lammertink, M.G.J.; Rovers, K.C.; Slagman, J.; Wellink, A.M.; Rauwerda, G.K.; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses the implementation of Reed- Solomon decoding for battery-powered wireless devices. The scope of this paper is constrained by the Digital Media Broadcasting (DMB). The most critical element of the Reed-Solomon algorithm is implemented on two different reconfigurable hardware

  18. Community impacts of mid-May frost event during an anomalously warm spring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hufkens, K.; Sonnentag, O.; Keenan, T. F.; Richardson, A. D.; Melaas, E. K.; Bailey, A.; O'Keefe, J.; Friedl, M. A.

    2011-12-01

    Global land and ocean surface temperatures of 2010 have gone on record as one of the warmest of the last 131 years. In the northeastern US extraordinarily warm spring temperatures were recorded, averaging +3 °C above the long term mean, causing very early leaf development. However, the entire northeastern US region was hit by a severe frost event. Leveraging the coincidence of an anomalously warm spring and a late spring frost event we assess species specific responses of these combined extremes for three northern hardwood species(sugar maple, American beech, yellow birch) across an elevational gradient. We integrated ground observations with satellite and near-surface remote sensing data to address the following questions: 1) How did different species respond to a gradient in altitude / freezing temperatures? 2) How does phenological strategy influence this response? 3) To what extent were regional effects measurable? 4) How did the late spring frost event alter the carbon balance of a northern hardwood forest? 5) Finally, what changes do we foresee in community ecology? Our results show an early onset for all species, triggered by the anomalously warm spring. However, the three species responded differently to a late spring frost event. Where both yellow birch and American beech remained largely unaffected by frost, by comparison, sugar maple showed severe frost damage with increasing altitude resulting in leaf loss and delayed canopy development. Conservative estimates of gross carbon exchange losses due to the frost event ranged from 63 g C m-2 to 156 g C m-2, or ~5% to ~13 % of the annual gross carbon exchange of a northern hardwood forest. Our results suggest that the additional pressure on forest succession at high altitude range margins due to late spring frost events may provide a competitive advantage for yellow birch and American beech, at the expense of sugar maple. Consequently, a late spring frost does not only affect the short term carbon balance

  19. Risk analysis of first and last frost occurrences in central Alborz region, Iran

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahimi, M.; Khalili, A.; Hajjam, S.; Kamali, G.A.; Stigter, C.J.

    2007-01-01

    Central Alborz is one of the important agricultural regions of Iran. Occurrence of the first frost in fall and the last frost in spring causes damage to the crops in this region every year. Information about the probable dates of frost occurrence helps farmers in preventing or reducing the damages

  20. Stochastic bifurcation in a model of love with colored noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Xiaokui; Dai, Honghua; Yuan, Jianping

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, we wish to examine the stochastic bifurcation induced by multiplicative Gaussian colored noise in a dynamical model of love where the random factor is used to describe the complexity and unpredictability of psychological systems. First, the dynamics in deterministic love-triangle model are considered briefly including equilibrium points and their stability, chaotic behaviors and chaotic attractors. Then, the influences of Gaussian colored noise with different parameters are explored such as the phase plots, top Lyapunov exponents, stationary probability density function (PDF) and stochastic bifurcation. The stochastic P-bifurcation through a qualitative change of the stationary PDF will be observed and bifurcation diagram on parameter plane of correlation time and noise intensity is presented to find the bifurcation behaviors in detail. Finally, the top Lyapunov exponent is computed to determine the D-bifurcation when the noise intensity achieves to a critical value. By comparison, we find there is no connection between two kinds of stochastic bifurcation.

  1. Analysis of novel stochastic switched SILI epidemic models with continuous and impulsive control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Shujing; Zhong, Deming; Zhang, Yan

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we establish two new stochastic switched epidemic models with continuous and impulsive control. The stochastic perturbations are considered for the natural death rate in each equation of the models. Firstly, a stochastic switched SILI model with continuous control schemes is investigated. By using Lyapunov-Razumikhin method, the sufficient conditions for extinction in mean are established. Our result shows that the disease could be die out theoretically if threshold value R is less than one, regardless of whether the disease-free solutions of the corresponding subsystems are stable or unstable. Then, a stochastic switched SILI model with continuous control schemes and pulse vaccination is studied. The threshold value R is derived. The global attractivity of the model is also obtained. At last, numerical simulations are carried out to support our results.

  2. Impact of abiotic factors on frost resistance and cold acclimation in Salix species and clones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fircks, H. von [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Short Rotation Forestry

    1996-12-31

    The effects of mineral nitrogen, photoperiod and day-night temperature on frost resistance and growth cessation in Salix species and clones are discussed. Increased nitrogen supply and imbalances between nitrogen and other elements might cause extensive frost damage in plants of Salix. Vegetation frosts below -3 deg C reduces the level of annual yield. Although Salix clones differ in resistance to freezing stress, the capacity to recover and grow after frosts are equal essential properties which affect the growth and biomass production of shoots after night frosts in June. Early autumn frosts causing freezing damage not only may delay the onset of growth cessation and cold acclimation, but also affect the winter survival of shoots. Increased nitrogen supply prior to cold acclimation postponed growth cessation and cold acclimation. Differences in nutrient status in plants cause also differences in retranslocation of mineral nutrients. Absence of damaging autumn frosts allow plants irrespective of nitrogen status to develop a frost resistance of at least - 80 deg C. 21 refs, 1 fig, 3 tabs

  3. Stochastic Subspace Modelling of Turbulence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Pedersen, B. J.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.

    2009-01-01

    positive definite cross-spectral density matrix a frequency response matrix is constructed which determines the turbulence vector as a linear filtration of Gaussian white noise. Finally, an accurate state space modelling method is proposed which allows selection of an appropriate model order......, and estimation of a state space model for the vector turbulence process incorporating its phase spectrum in one stage, and its results are compared with a conventional ARMA modelling method.......Turbulence of the incoming wind field is of paramount importance to the dynamic response of civil engineering structures. Hence reliable stochastic models of the turbulence should be available from which time series can be generated for dynamic response and structural safety analysis. In the paper...

  4. Analisa Kinerja Pengkodean Kanal Type Reed Solomon Coding pada Kualitas Transmisi Citra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baharuddin

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Dalam sistem telekomunikasi, data multimedia berupa audio, citra, dan video ditransmisikan ke penerima melalui sebuah kanal komunikasi. Pada sistem telekomunikasi yang menggunakan kanal komunikasi wireless, selain pengaruh redaman, gangguan yang paling dominan adalah noise dan fading. Fading dan noise dikanal akan menurunkan kinerja sistem telekomunikasi digital karena dapat menyebabkan terjadinya kesalahan pendeteksian sinyal, sehingga terjadi perubahan bit atau simbol pada sisi penerima. Dengan menerapkan teknik pengkodean kanal tipe Reed Solomon Code pada sisi pengirim dan penerima, maka dapat ditingkatkan kinerja dari sistem komunikasi digital tersebut. Melalui simulasi dalam penelitian ini, telah dianalisa pengaruh penerapan teknik pengkodean kanal Reed Solomon Code pada sistem yang dipengaruhi noise Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN dan fading Rayleigh. Besarnya pengaruh penggunaan dari teknik pengkodean kanal Reed Solomon Code dapat diketahui melalui analisa Bit Error Rate (BER dan Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR. Hasil simulasi dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa adanya peningkatan perbaikan sistem dipenerima rata-rata 5dB bila dibandingkan dengan tanpa menggunakan teknik pengkodean kanal Reed Solomon Code.

  5. Research on Noise Reduction of Reed Valves of a Hermetic Refrigerator Compressor

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhilong; Chen, Qian; Li, Dantong; Wang, Ju; Xia, Pu; Wang, Tao

    2017-08-01

    The noise level of the refrigerator compressor has received more and more attention in recent years. As the key component of a compressor, reed valve is its main noise source. In this paper, a new noise reduction technology of coating on reed valve surface is proposed and verified by experiments. Firstly, the reed valves were coated, and their surface characteristics were checked. Then, the refrigerator compressor p-V diagram test was carried out to investigate the influence of doped diamond-like carbon (DLC) coating on power consumption. Finally, the noise test rig for the refrigerator compressor was set up. Based on the standard test method, noise spectrum was measured in a semi-anechoic room under standard working condition. Research results showed that the compressor noise was significantly reduced by 1.8dB (A) after coating. Moreover, the effect of aerodynamic noise reduction at suction side is better than that at discharge side. However, the influence of the film thickness on noise reduction value is little. The COP was reduced by 0.6% as compared to the compressor with uncoated reed valves.

  6. Reflected stochastic differential equation models for constrained animal movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanks, Ephraim M.; Johnson, Devin S.; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2017-01-01

    Movement for many animal species is constrained in space by barriers such as rivers, shorelines, or impassable cliffs. We develop an approach for modeling animal movement constrained in space by considering a class of constrained stochastic processes, reflected stochastic differential equations. Our approach generalizes existing methods for modeling unconstrained animal movement. We present methods for simulation and inference based on augmenting the constrained movement path with a latent unconstrained path and illustrate this augmentation with a simulation example and an analysis of telemetry data from a Steller sea lion (Eumatopias jubatus) in southeast Alaska.

  7. Stochastic interest rates model in compounding | Galadima ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Stochastic interest rates model in compounding. ... in finance, real estate, insurance, accounting and other areas of business administration. The assumption that future rates are fixed and known with certainty at the beginning of an investment, ...

  8. A stochastic cloud model for cloud and ozone retrievals from UV measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efremenko, Dmitry S.; Schüssler, Olena; Doicu, Adrian; Loyola, Diego

    2016-01-01

    The new generation of satellite instruments provides measurements in and around the Oxygen A-band on a global basis and with a relatively high spatial resolution. These data are commonly used for the determination of cloud properties. A stochastic model and radiative transfer model, previously developed by the authors, is used as the forward model component in retrievals of cloud parameters and ozone total and partial columns. The cloud retrieval algorithm combines local and global optimization routines, and yields a retrieval accuracy of about 1% and a fast computational time. Retrieved parameters are the cloud optical thickness and the cloud-top height. It was found that the use of the independent pixel approximation instead of the stochastic cloud model leads to large errors in the retrieved cloud parameters, as well as, in the retrieved ozone height resolved partial columns. The latter can be reduced by using the stochastic cloud model to compute the optimal value of the regularization parameter in the framework of Tikhonov regularization. - Highlights: • A stochastic radiative transfer model for retrieving clouds/ozone is designed. • Errors of independent pixel approximation (IPA) for O3 total column are small. • The error of IPA for ozone profile retrieval may become large. • The use of stochastic model reduces the error of ozone profile retrieval.

  9. Threshold Dynamics in Stochastic SIRS Epidemic Models with Nonlinear Incidence and Vaccination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the dynamical behaviors for a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and vaccination are investigated. In the models, the disease transmission coefficient and the removal rates are all affected by noise. Some new basic properties of the models are found. Applying these properties, we establish a series of new threshold conditions on the stochastically exponential extinction, stochastic persistence, and permanence in the mean of the disease with probability one for the models. Furthermore, we obtain a sufficient condition on the existence of unique stationary distribution for the model. Finally, a series of numerical examples are introduced to illustrate our main theoretical results and some conjectures are further proposed.

  10. Models of the stochastic activity of neurones

    CERN Document Server

    Holden, Arun Vivian

    1976-01-01

    These notes have grown from a series of seminars given at Leeds between 1972 and 1975. They represent an attempt to gather together the different kinds of model which have been proposed to account for the stochastic activity of neurones, and to provide an introduction to this area of mathematical biology. A striking feature of the electrical activity of the nervous system is that it appears stochastic: this is apparent at all levels of recording, ranging from intracellular recordings to the electroencephalogram. The chapters start with fluctuations in membrane potential, proceed through single unit and synaptic activity and end with the behaviour of large aggregates of neurones: L have chgaen this seque~~e\\/~~';uggest that the interesting behaviourr~f :the nervous system - its individuality, variability and dynamic forms - may in part result from the stochastic behaviour of its components. I would like to thank Dr. Julio Rubio for reading and commenting on the drafts, Mrs. Doris Beighton for producing the fin...

  11. Stochastic modelling of avascular tumour growth and therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahoo, S; Sahoo, A; Shearer, S F C

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a generalized stochastic model for the growth of avascular tumours is presented. This model captures the dynamical evolution of avascular tumour cell subpopulations by incorporating Gaussian white noise into the growth rate of the mitotic function. This work generalizes the deterministic model proposed by Sherratt and Chaplain (2001 J. Math. Biol. 43 291) where they formulated a tumour model in an in vivo setting, in terms of continuum densities of proliferating, quiescent and necrotic cells. Detailed simulations of our model show that the inclusion of Gaussian noise in the original model of Sherratt and Chaplain substantially distorts the overall structure of the density profiles in addition to reducing the speed of tumour growth. Within this stochastic carcinogenesis framework the action of therapy is also investigated by replacing Gaussian white noise with a therapy term. We compare a constant therapy protocol with a logarithmic time-dependent protocol. Our results predict that a logarithmic therapy is more effective than the constant therapy protocol.

  12. Stochastic models of solute transport in highly heterogeneous geologic media

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Semenov, V.N.; Korotkin, I.A.; Pruess, K.; Goloviznin, V.M.; Sorokovikova, O.S.

    2009-09-15

    A stochastic model of anomalous diffusion was developed in which transport occurs by random motion of Brownian particles, described by distribution functions of random displacements with heavy (power-law) tails. One variant of an effective algorithm for random function generation with a power-law asymptotic and arbitrary factor of asymmetry is proposed that is based on the Gnedenko-Levy limit theorem and makes it possible to reproduce all known Levy {alpha}-stable fractal processes. A two-dimensional stochastic random walk algorithm has been developed that approximates anomalous diffusion with streamline-dependent and space-dependent parameters. The motivation for introducing such a type of dispersion model is the observed fact that tracers in natural aquifers spread at different super-Fickian rates in different directions. For this and other important cases, stochastic random walk models are the only known way to solve the so-called multiscaling fractional order diffusion equation with space-dependent parameters. Some comparisons of model results and field experiments are presented.

  13. Experimental study on frosting control of mobile air conditioning system with microchannel evaporator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qu Xiaohua; Shi Junye; Qi Zhaogang; Chen Jiangping

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a newly developed frost control system is proposed. System bench tests and vehicle test in wind tunnel have been carried out to explore the anti-frosting performance of automotive air conditioning system with microchannel evaporator. The experimental results are compared with the baseline conventional laminated evaporator system. The test results show that the installation position of temperature sensor can dramatically affect the anti-frosting performance. The clutch switching on/off temperature range of the microchannel evaporator is also experimentally studied. The test results show that, with a proper installation position and on/off temperature range, the system COP can be improved, and meanwhile the panel vents' air off temperature can be reduced, and temperature swing can be reduced. - Highlights: → The frost control systems were tested with microchannel and laminated evaporators separately. → The installation position of temperature sensor affects the anti-frosting performance. → Temperature control range affects the anti-frosting performance. → The panel vents' air off temperature and swing can be reduced by proper control parameters. → The system COP can be improved by proper control parameters.

  14. Tints, Shades and Frost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterling, Joan

    2009-01-01

    This article describes a classroom art project inspired by the work of Robert Frost, one of the most acclaimed and beloved American poets of all time. Using tints and shades in a composition, this project demonstrates how quality literature may be incorporated into elementary art lessons in a very useful way, making art an important complement to…

  15. The Reed Elsevier stock price gap

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamp, B.

    1995-01-01

    This is the report of a limited study on the structural stock price differences between Reed and Elsevier. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of the problem area and to formulate and discuss several hypotheses regarding the causes of this gap. The research was performed by

  16. Stochastic dynamics modeling solute transport in porous media modeling solute transport in porous media

    CERN Document Server

    Kulasiri, Don

    2002-01-01

    Most of the natural and biological phenomena such as solute transport in porous media exhibit variability which can not be modeled by using deterministic approaches. There is evidence in natural phenomena to suggest that some of the observations can not be explained by using the models which give deterministic solutions. Stochastic processes have a rich repository of objects which can be used to express the randomness inherent in the system and the evolution of the system over time. The attractiveness of the stochastic differential equations (SDE) and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE) come from the fact that we can integrate the variability of the system along with the scientific knowledge pertaining to the system. One of the aims of this book is to explaim some useufl concepts in stochastic dynamics so that the scientists and engineers with a background in undergraduate differential calculus could appreciate the applicability and appropriateness of these developments in mathematics. The ideas ...

  17. CO2 Frost Phenomenon for Binary System of Methane-Carbon Dioxide Mixtures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gede Wibawa

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present study, the CO2 frost phenomenon of CH4-CO2 mixtures has been observed for the rational design of CO2 removal from natural gas using a controlled freeze out area. The CO2 frost conditions were estimated using the ZNE method and process simulation software (Aspen HYSYS® v7.3. The experiment was carried out using a double pipe heat exchanger (DPHE with the concentration of CO2 in the gas mixture at 5 and 10% and pressure of the gas mixture from 1 to 20 bar. The equilibrium temperature predictions of the ZNE method and the process simulation software only had a slight difference, with a magnitude deviation of less than 1% for pressures below 20 bar and 3% for pressures in the range of 20-30 bar, respectively. In the experimental study, CO2 frost formation was detected at pressures of 1, 5, 10 and 20 bar. The locations of the initial CO2 frost formation were determined using a pressure drop indicator associated with the predicted frost temperatures obtained from the ZNE method and the process simulation software. For all studied variables, the locations of initial CO2 frost formation were found at 0.887-1.531 m from the inlet.

  18. Vulnerability assessment to frost disaster in dieng volcanic highland using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradana, A.; Rahmanu, Y. A.; Prabaningrum, I.; Nurafifa, I.; Hizbaron, D. R.

    2018-04-01

    Dieng Volcanic Highland is one of frost disaster prone area which is very unique phenomenon in tropical region. Frost indicated by appearance of frozen dew or ice layer on the ground or vegetation surface due air inversion and cold temperatures during midnight in dry season. Appearance of frost significantly causes plant damage and losses on agricultural land, while the impacts were strongly influenced by level of vulnerability within agricultural communities. This study aims to analyze the impact of frost on agricultural land in Dieng, to identify characteristics of physical, social, economic vulnerability and coping capacity of agricultural communities to frost disaster in Dieng, and to estimate total vulnerability of frost disasters in Dieng through SMCE scenario. Research was conducted in Dieng Village, Wonosobo and Dieng Kulon Village, Banjarnegara. Method to assess vulnerability level is performed by Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) method using ILWIS software through a combination of physical, social, and economic vulnerability regarding frost hazard, as well as coping capacity of farmers. Data collected by interview within different agricultural plots using questionnaire and in-depth interview method on frost affected agricultural land. Impact of frost mostly causes damage on potato agricultural land than any other types of commodities, such as carrot, leek or cabbage. Losses varies in range of 0 million to 55 million rupiah, at most events in range of 10 million to 15 million rupiah during frost season on July-August-September. Main factors determining vulnerability comes from crop losses, preparedness effort, and type of commodity. Agricultural land dominated by high level physical vulnerability (95.37 percent), high level social vulnerability (70.79 percent), moderate level economic vulnerability (79.23 percent) and moderate level coping capacity (73.18 percent). All five scenarios indicated that level of total vulnerability vary only from

  19. Methods and models in mathematical biology deterministic and stochastic approaches

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Johannes

    2015-01-01

    This book developed from classes in mathematical biology taught by the authors over several years at the Technische Universität München. The main themes are modeling principles, mathematical principles for the analysis of these models, and model-based analysis of data. The key topics of modern biomathematics are covered: ecology, epidemiology, biochemistry, regulatory networks, neuronal networks, and population genetics. A variety of mathematical methods are introduced, ranging from ordinary and partial differential equations to stochastic graph theory and  branching processes. A special emphasis is placed on the interplay between stochastic and deterministic models.

  20. Stochastic description of heterogeneities of permeability within groundwater flow models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacas, M.C.; Lachassagne, P.; Ledoux, E.; Marsily, G. de

    1991-01-01

    In order to model radionuclide migration in the geosphere realistically at the field scale, the hydrogeologist needs to be able to simulate groundwater flow in heterogeneous media. Heterogeneity of the medium can be described using a stochastic approach, that affects the way in which a flow model is formulated. In this paper, we discuss the problems that we have encountered in modelling both continuous and fractured media. The stochastic approach leads to a methodology that enables local measurements of permeability to be integrated into a model which gives a good prediction of groundwater flow on a regional scale. 5 Figs.; 8 Refs

  1. Simulating the Probability of Grain Sorghum Maturity before the First Frost in Northeastern Colorado

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory S. McMaster

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Expanding grain sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L. Moench] production northward from southeastern Colorado is thought to be limited by shorter growing seasons due to lower temperatures and earlier frost dates. This study used a simulation model for predicting crop phenology (PhenologyMMS to estimate the probability of reaching physiological maturity before the first fall frost for a variety of agronomic practices in northeastern Colorado. Physiological maturity for seven planting dates (1 May to 12 June, four seedbed moisture conditions affecting seedling emergence (from Optimum to Planted in Dust, and three maturity classes (Early, Medium, and Late were simulated using historical weather data from nine locations for both irrigated and dryland phenological parameters. The probability of reaching maturity before the first frost was slightly higher under dryland conditions, decreased as latitude, longitude, and elevation increased, planting date was delayed, and for later maturity classes. The results provide producers with estimates of the reliability of growing grain sorghum in northeastern Colorado.

  2. Doubly stochastic Poisson process models for precipitation at fine time-scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesh, Nadarajah I.; Onof, Christian; Xie, Dichao

    2012-09-01

    This paper considers a class of stochastic point process models, based on doubly stochastic Poisson processes, in the modelling of rainfall. We examine the application of this class of models, a neglected alternative to the widely-known Poisson cluster models, in the analysis of fine time-scale rainfall intensity. These models are mainly used to analyse tipping-bucket raingauge data from a single site but an extension to multiple sites is illustrated which reveals the potential of this class of models to study the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation at fine time-scales.

  3. A stochastic multiscale framework for modeling flow through random heterogeneous porous media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganapathysubramanian, B.; Zabaras, N.

    2009-01-01

    Flow through porous media is ubiquitous, occurring from large geological scales down to the microscopic scales. Several critical engineering phenomena like contaminant spread, nuclear waste disposal and oil recovery rely on accurate analysis and prediction of these multiscale phenomena. Such analysis is complicated by inherent uncertainties as well as the limited information available to characterize the system. Any realistic modeling of these transport phenomena has to resolve two key issues: (i) the multi-length scale variations in permeability that these systems exhibit, and (ii) the inherently limited information available to quantify these property variations that necessitates posing these phenomena as stochastic processes. A stochastic variational multiscale formulation is developed to incorporate uncertain multiscale features. A stochastic analogue to a mixed multiscale finite element framework is used to formulate the physical stochastic multiscale process. Recent developments in linear and non-linear model reduction techniques are used to convert the limited information available about the permeability variation into a viable stochastic input model. An adaptive sparse grid collocation strategy is used to efficiently solve the resulting stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). The framework is applied to analyze flow through random heterogeneous media when only limited statistics about the permeability variation are given

  4. Frost hardiness of tree species is independent of phenology and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The differences in timing in bud burst between species have been interpreted as an adaptation to late frost events in spring. Thus, it has been suggested that the degree of frost susceptibility of leaves is species-specific and depends on the species' phenology and geographic distribution range. To test for relationships ...

  5. Stochastic models, estimation, and control

    CERN Document Server

    Maybeck, Peter S

    1982-01-01

    This volume builds upon the foundations set in Volumes 1 and 2. Chapter 13 introduces the basic concepts of stochastic control and dynamic programming as the fundamental means of synthesizing optimal stochastic control laws.

  6. GillesPy: A Python Package for Stochastic Model Building and Simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Abel, John H.; Drawert, Brian; Hellander, Andreas; Petzold, Linda R.

    2016-01-01

    GillesPy is an open-source Python package for model construction and simulation of stochastic biochemical systems. GillesPy consists of a Python framework for model building and an interface to the StochKit2 suite of efficient simulation algorithms based on the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithms (SSA). To enable intuitive model construction and seamless integration into the scientific Python stack, we present an easy to understand, action-oriented programming interface. Here, we descr...

  7. Can the Frost Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale assess perfeccionismo?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, Alexandra M; DiBartolo, Patricia Marten; Rendón, María Jose

    2017-07-01

    Although culture-based measurement bias threatens the validity of intergroup comparison research, measurement invariance is often assumed rather than demonstrated by researchers who draw conclusions about cross-cultural similarities or differences. The current article investigates the cross-cultural invariance of a popular measure of perfectionism, the Frost Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale (F-MPS; Frost, Marten, Lahart, & Rosenblate, 1990) for a Hispanic/Latina sample. Perfectionism, which encompasses high goal setting and sensitivity to critical evaluation, is a transdiagnostic risk factor for internalizing psychopathology that especially warrants focus among groups burdened by mental health disparities. Multiple samples were used in a series of analyses to construct a baseline first-order measurement model and test for cross-group equivalence. For model development, confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs) were used with 320 female participants (M age = 19.61 years) who identified primarily (n = 301) as European/European American. Measurement invariance testing was conducted with multigroup CFAs using another sample of female adults (n = 574; Mage = 21.21 years), identifying either as European/European American (n = 217) or Hispanic/Latina/Latin American (n = 357). Evidence was found for invariance across the revised F-MPS factor structure, pattern of factor loadings, and factor variances/covariances. Results indicate that predictive relationships may be compared across these groups, but caution is suggested when interpreting raw mean score differences due to intercept nonequivalence. Further, second-order model testing demonstrated support for the bidimensional model of perfectionism cross-culturally. Future research on perfectionism within the Latino/a population is encouraged using this equivalent item set. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Stochastic Analysis 2010

    CERN Document Server

    Crisan, Dan

    2011-01-01

    "Stochastic Analysis" aims to provide mathematical tools to describe and model high dimensional random systems. Such tools arise in the study of Stochastic Differential Equations and Stochastic Partial Differential Equations, Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Geometry, Random Media and Interacting Particle Systems, Super-processes, Stochastic Filtering, Mathematical Finance, etc. Stochastic Analysis has emerged as a core area of late 20th century Mathematics and is currently undergoing a rapid scientific development. The special volume "Stochastic Analysis 2010" provides a sa

  9. [Occurrence and control of frost in Tilia amurensis and Fraxinus mandshurica young plantations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, X; Zhang, Y; Ma, H

    2000-12-01

    The changes of minimum temperature periodical biological phenomena and frost in yound Tilia amurensis and Fraxinus mandshurica plantation stands were systematically analyzed based on the vertical gradient observation and plot investigation. Meanwhile, the resistance of Tilia amurensis to late frost was also studied. The results showed that the phenophase of T. amurensis was later than that of F. mandshurica. Influenced by significant temperature inversions in this area, the phenophase of T. amurensis and F. mandshurica changed regularly in different aspects and slope positions. The sprouts on west slope started earlier than that on east slope. The higher they grew on the slope, the earlier they sprouted, with the earliest sprout at the top of slope. Late frost in this area only took place when the trees were sprouting, but air temperature decreased significantly at the same time. The degree of injury from the late frost could be controlled effectively by selecting suitable site. Sites down the slope, especially the east slope, were not suitable for T. amurensis and F. mandshurica plantation in this research area. Chemical treatment and biological shading could prevent late frost injury through putting off sprout. Mixed plantations could prevent F. mandshurica and T. anurensis from late frost injury significantly, and the frost injury index and the proportion of the tree number of different injury grades were lower than those in pure stands.

  10. Predicting population extinction or disease outbreaks with stochastic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J. S. Allen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Models of exponential growth, logistic growth and epidemics are common applications in undergraduate differential equation courses. The corresponding stochastic models are not part of these courses, although when population sizes are small their behaviour is often more realistic and distinctly different from deterministic models. For example, the randomness associated with births and deaths may lead to population extinction even in an exponentially growing population. Some background in continuous-time Markov chains and applications to populations, epidemics and cancer are presented with a goal to introduce this topic into the undergraduate mathematics curriculum that will encourage further investigation into problems on conservation, infectious diseases and cancer therapy. MATLAB programs for graphing sample paths of stochastic models are provided in the Appendix.

  11. A method for assessing frost damage risk in sweet cherry orchards of South Patagonia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cittadini, E.D.; Ridder, de N.; Peri, P.L.; Keulen, van H.

    2006-01-01

    Quantification of frost damage risk is important in planning the development of new orchard areas and for decision-making on design and installation of frost control systems. The objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive method to quantify frost damage risk in different sweet cherry

  12. Predicting the Stochastic Properties of the Shallow Subsurface for Improved Geophysical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroujkova, A.; Vynne, J.; Bonner, J.; Lewkowicz, J.

    2005-12-01

    Strong ground motion data from numerous explosive field experiments and from moderate to large earthquakes show significant variations in amplitude and waveform shape with respect to both azimuth and range. Attempts to model these variations using deterministic models have often been unsuccessful. It has been hypothesized that a stochastic description of the geological medium is a more realistic approach. To estimate the stochastic properties of the shallow subsurface, we use Measurement While Drilling (MWD) data, which are routinely collected by mines in order to facilitate design of blast patterns. The parameters, such as rotation speed of the drill, torque, and penetration rate, are used to compute the rock's Specific Energy (SE), which is then related to a blastability index. We use values of SE measured at two different mines and calibrated to laboratory measurements of rock properties to determine correlation lengths of the subsurface rocks in 2D, needed to obtain 2D and 3D stochastic models. The stochastic models are then combined with the deterministic models and used to compute synthetic seismic waveforms.

  13. Crushed aggregates for roads and their properties for frost protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Elena; Willy Danielsen, Svein

    2015-04-01

    Crushed aggregates for roads and their properties for frost protection Elena Kuznetsova, NTNU and Svein Willy Danielsen, SINTEF With natural (fluvial, glaciofluvial) sand/gravel resources being rapidly depleted in many countries, the last decade has seen a significant trend towards using more alternative materials for construction purpose. In Norway the development and implementation of crushed aggregate technology has been the most important way to get around the problem with increased resource scarcity. Today Norway is one the European countries with the highest percentage of crushed/manufactured aggregates. A crushed product will reveal a different particle size distribution, a sharper, more angular particle shape, and not least - a significantly different mineral composition. The latter may often be characterised by more polymineral composition, and it will also much more depend on the local bedrock. When handled with care and knowledge, these differences can give the user a lot of new opportunities relating to materials design. Norwegian road construction practice has changed significantly during the last 40 years due to the replacement of gravel by crushed rock materials in the granular layers of the pavements. The use of non-processed rock materials from blasting was allowed in the subbase layer until 2012. This was a reason for a lot of problems with frost heaving due to inhomogeneity of this material, and in practice it was difficult to control the size of large stones. Since 2012 there is a requirement that rock materials for use in the subbase layer shall be crushed (Handbook N200, 2014). During the spring 2014 The Norwegian Public Roads Administration introduced a new handbook with requirements for roads construction in Norway, including new specifications for the frost protection layer. When pavements are constructed over moist and/or frost susceptible soils in cold and humid environments, the frost protection layer also becomes a very important part

  14. Arrangement of permanent magnet and reed switches for control rod position indicator of SMART CEDM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, J. Y.; Kim, J. I.; Kim, J. H.; Hur, H.; Jang, M. H.

    2001-01-01

    The reliability and accuracy of the information on control rod position are very important to the reactor safety and the design of the core protection system. A survey on the RSPT(Reed Switch Position Transmitter) type control rod position indication system and its actual implementation in the exiting nuclear power plants in Korea was performed first. The control rod position indicator having the high performance for SMART was developed on the basis of RSPT technology identified through the survey. The arrangement of permanent magnet and reed switches is the most important procedure in the design of control rod position indication. In this study, the characteristics of permanent magnet and reed switches are introduced and the calculation method for arrangement of permanent magnet and reed switch is presented

  15. Genetic architecture of winter hardiness and frost tolerance in triticale.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenxin Liu

    Full Text Available Abiotic stress experienced by autumn-sown crops during winter is of great economic importance as it can have a severe negative impact on yield. In this study, we investigated the genetic architecture of winter hardiness and frost tolerance in triticale. To this end, we used a large mapping population of 647 DH lines phenotyped for both traits in combination with genome-wide marker data. Employing multiple-line cross QTL mapping, we identified nine main effect QTL for winter hardiness and frost tolerance of which six were overlapping between both traits. Three major QTL were identified on chromosomes 5A, 1B and 5R. In addition, an epistasis scan revealed the contribution of epistasis to the genetic architecture of winter hardiness and frost tolerance in triticale. Taken together, our results show that winter hardiness and frost tolerance are complex traits that can be improved by phenotypic selection, but also that genomic approaches hold potential for a knowledge-based improvement of these important traits in elite triticale germplasm.

  16. Stochastic Growth Models with No Discounting

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 4 (2007), s. 88-98 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/06/0990; GA ČR GA402/05/0115 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : economic dynamics * stochastic version of the Ramsey growth model * Markov decision processes Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  17. The effects of design and operating factors on the frost growth and thermal performance of a flat plate fin-tube heat exchanger under the frosting condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kwan Soo; Kim, Woo Seung

    1999-01-01

    An experimental study of the effects of various factors(fin pitch, fin arrangement, air temperature, air humidity, and air velocity) on the frost growth and thermal performance of a fin-tube heat exchanger has been conducted under the frosting condition. It is found that the thermal performance of a heat exchanger is closely related to the blockage ratio of the air flow passages due to the frost growth. The maximum allowable blockage ratio is used to determine the criteria for the optimal operating conditions of a fin-tube heat exchanger. It is also shown that heat transfer rate of heat exchanger with staggered fin arrangement increases about 17% and the time required for heat transfer rate to reach a maximum value becomes longer, compared with those of an inline fin-tube heat exchanger under the frosting condition. The energy transfer resistance between the air and coolant decreases with the increase of inlet air temperature and velocity and with decreasing inlet air humidity

  18. In live interaction, does familiarity promote attraction or contempt? Reply to Norton, Frost, and Ariely (2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, Harry T; Maniaci, Michael R; Caprariello, Peter A; Eastwick, Paul W; Finkel, Eli J

    2011-09-01

    In this reply, we address and refute each of Norton, Frost, and Ariely's (see record 2011-18560-001) specific objections to the conclusion that, ceteris paribus, familiarity breeds liking in live interaction. In particular, we reiterate the importance of studying live interaction rather than decontextualized processes. These rebuttals notwithstanding, we concur with Norton et al.'s call for an integrative model that encompasses both Norton, Frost, and Ariely's (see record 2006-23056-008) results and ours (see record 2011-04644-001), and we point readers toward a description of a possible model presented in our original article. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

  19. Bioaccumulation of metals in reeds collected from an acid mine drainage contaminated site in winter and spring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Lin; Cutright, Teresa J

    2016-01-01

    Wetland plants such as Phragmites australis has been used to treat acid mine drainage (AMD) contaminated soil which is a serious environmental issue worldwide. This project investigated metal plaque content(s) and metal uptake in reeds grown in an AMD field in winter and spring. The results indicated that the level of Fe plaque was much higher than Mn and Al plaque as the soil contained more Fe than Al and Mn. The amounts of Mn and Al plaque formed on reeds in spring were not significantly different from that in winter (p > .05). However, more Fe plaque was formed on reeds collected in spring. The concentrations of metals in underground organs were positively related to the metal levels in soils. More Mn and Al transferred to the aboveground tissues of reeds during the spring while the Fe levels in reeds did not significantly vary with seasons. Roots and rhizomes were the main organs for Fe sequestration (16.3 ± 4.15 mg/g in roots in spring) while most Al was sequestered in the shoots of reeds (2.05 ± 0.09 mg/g in shoots in spring). Further research may be needed to enhance the translocation of metals in reeds and increase the phytoremediation efficiency.

  20. Application of Stochastic Partial Differential Equations to Reservoir Property Modelling

    KAUST Repository

    Potsepaev, R.

    2010-09-06

    Existing algorithms of geostatistics for stochastic modelling of reservoir parameters require a mapping (the \\'uvt-transform\\') into the parametric space and reconstruction of a stratigraphic co-ordinate system. The parametric space can be considered to represent a pre-deformed and pre-faulted depositional environment. Existing approximations of this mapping in many cases cause significant distortions to the correlation distances. In this work we propose a coordinate free approach for modelling stochastic textures through the application of stochastic partial differential equations. By avoiding the construction of a uvt-transform and stratigraphic coordinates, one can generate realizations directly in the physical space in the presence of deformations and faults. In particular the solution of the modified Helmholtz equation driven by Gaussian white noise is a zero mean Gaussian stationary random field with exponential correlation function (in 3-D). This equation can be used to generate realizations in parametric space. In order to sample in physical space we introduce a stochastic elliptic PDE with tensor coefficients, where the tensor is related to correlation anisotropy and its variation is physical space.

  1. Frost susceptibility of sub-base gravel used in Pearl-Chain Bridges: an experimental investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mia Schou Møller; Hansen, Kurt Kielsgaard; Andersen, Iben Brøndum

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates frost susceptibility of sub-base gravel determined by the ASTM D5918-13 standard as a conservative estimate of the frost heave risk of fill in overfilled arch bridges, particularly in Pearl-Chain Bridges. Frost heave of granular materials has been of great research interes...

  2. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

    2015-01-01

    The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

  3. Frost-free Dunes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Context image for PIA03291 Frost-free Dunes These dark dunes are frost covered for most of the year. As southern summer draws to a close, the dunes have been completely defrosted. Image information: VIS instrument. Latitude -66.6N, Longitude 37.0E. 34 meter/pixel resolution. Note: this THEMIS visual image has not been radiometrically nor geometrically calibrated for this preliminary release. An empirical correction has been performed to remove instrumental effects. A linear shift has been applied in the cross-track and down-track direction to approximate spacecraft and planetary motion. Fully calibrated and geometrically projected images will be released through the Planetary Data System in accordance with Project policies at a later time. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory manages the 2001 Mars Odyssey mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) was developed by Arizona State University, Tempe, in collaboration with Raytheon Santa Barbara Remote Sensing. The THEMIS investigation is led by Dr. Philip Christensen at Arizona State University. Lockheed Martin Astronautics, Denver, is the prime contractor for the Odyssey project, and developed and built the orbiter. Mission operations are conducted jointly from Lockheed Martin and from JPL, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

  4. A comparison of Frost expression among species and life stages of Drosophila.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bing, X; Zhang, J; Sinclair, Brent J

    2012-02-01

    Frost (Fst) is a gene associated with cold exposure in Drosophila melanogaster. We used real-time PCR to assess whether cold exposure induces expression of Fst in 10 different life stages of D. melanogaster, and adults of seven other Drosophila species. We exposed groups of individuals to 0 °C (2 h), followed by 1 h recovery (22 °C). Frost was significantly upregulated in response to cold in eggs, third instar larvae, and 2- and 5-day-old male and female adults in D. melanogaster. Life stages in which cold did not upregulate Fst had high constitutive expression. Frost is located on the opposite strand of an intron of Diuretic hormone (DH), but cold exposure did not upregulate DH. Frost orthologues were identified in six other species within the Melanogaster group (Drosophila sechellia, Drosophila simulans, Drosophila yakuba, Drosophila erecta, Drosophila ananassae and Drosophila mauritiana). Frost orthologues were upregulated in response to cold exposure in both sexes in adults of all of these species. The predicted structure of a putative Frost consensus protein shows highly conserved tandem repeats of motifs involved in cell signalling (PEST and TRAF2), suggesting that Fst might encode an adaptor protein involved in acute stress or apoptosis signalling in vivo. © 2011 The Authors. Insect Molecular Biology © 2011 The Royal Entomological Society.

  5. Survival Analysis of a Nonautonomous Logistic Model with Stochastic Perturbation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Lu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking white noise into account, a stochastic nonautonomous logistic model is proposed and investigated. Sufficient conditions for extinction, nonpersistence in the mean, weak persistence, stochastic permanence, and global asymptotic stability are established. Moreover, the threshold between weak persistence and extinction is obtained. Finally, we introduce some numerical simulink graphics to illustrate our main results.

  6. Exercise effects in a virtual type 1 diabetes patient: Using stochastic differential equations for model extension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duun-Henriksen, Anne Katrine; Schmidt, S.; Nørgaard, K.

    2013-01-01

    extension incorporating exercise effects on insulin and glucose dynamics. Our model is constructed as a stochastic state space model consisting of a set of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In a stochastic state space model, the residual error is split into random measurement error...

  7. Shoot cuttings propagation of giant reed (Arundo donax L.) in water and moist soil: The path forward?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ceotto, Enrico; Di Candilo, Mario [C.R.A. - Centro di Ricerca per le Colture Industriali, Via di Corticella 133, 40128 Bologna (Italy)

    2010-11-15

    Giant reed (Arundo donax L.) is a perennial rhizomatous grass that can be regarded as an ideal crop for bioenergy production, owing to several intrinsic characteristics. Despite to the promising yield results obtained in many plot experiments, the cultivation of giant reed at field scale is still a challenge. Owing to the floral sterility of the species, rhizome propagation has been predominantly used to establish field plots experiments, although this method is unpractical and monetarily expensive. Giant reed is a hydrophytic plant that typically spread in riparian systems by flood-mediated fragmentation and dispersal of vegetative propagules. Since giant reed propagation is strictly dependent on temporary abundance of water, this plant characteristic might be exploited for fostering the diffusion of giant reed as a bioenergy field crop. The objectives of this paper were: i) to disseminate some techniques for shoot cutting propagation of giant reed in water and in moist soil; ii) to address the critical points that remain to be solved for a widespread diffusion of this species as a bioenergy field crop. (author)

  8. Expansion or extinction: deterministic and stochastic two-patch models with Allee effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Yun; Lanchier, Nicolas

    2011-06-01

    We investigate the impact of Allee effect and dispersal on the long-term evolution of a population in a patchy environment. Our main focus is on whether a population already established in one patch either successfully invades an adjacent empty patch or undergoes a global extinction. Our study is based on the combination of analytical and numerical results for both a deterministic two-patch model and a stochastic counterpart. The deterministic model has either two, three or four attractors. The existence of a regime with exactly three attractors only appears when patches have distinct Allee thresholds. In the presence of weak dispersal, the analysis of the deterministic model shows that a high-density and a low-density populations can coexist at equilibrium in nearby patches, whereas the analysis of the stochastic model indicates that this equilibrium is metastable, thus leading after a large random time to either a global expansion or a global extinction. Up to some critical dispersal, increasing the intensity of the interactions leads to an increase of both the basin of attraction of the global extinction and the basin of attraction of the global expansion. Above this threshold, for both the deterministic and the stochastic models, the patches tend to synchronize as the intensity of the dispersal increases. This results in either a global expansion or a global extinction. For the deterministic model, there are only two attractors, while the stochastic model no longer exhibits a metastable behavior. In the presence of strong dispersal, the limiting behavior is entirely determined by the value of the Allee thresholds as the global population size in the deterministic and the stochastic models evolves as dictated by their single-patch counterparts. For all values of the dispersal parameter, Allee effects promote global extinction in terms of an expansion of the basin of attraction of the extinction equilibrium for the deterministic model and an increase of the

  9. Dynamic stochastic accumulation model with application to pension savings management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melicherčik Igor

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a dynamic stochastic accumulation model for determining optimal decision between stock and bond investments during accumulation of pension savings. Stock prices are assumed to be driven by the geometric Brownian motion. Interest rates are modeled by means of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model. The optimal decision as a solution to the corresponding dynamic stochastic program is a function of the duration of saving, the level of savings and the short rate. Qualitative and quantitative properties of the optimal solution are analyzed. The model is tested on the funded pillar of the Slovak pension system. The results are calculated for various risk preferences of a saver.

  10. Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benth, Fred Espen; Koekebakker, Steen

    2008-01-01

    We discuss the modeling of electricity contracts traded in many deregulated power markets. These forward/futures type contracts deliver (either physically or financially) electricity over a specified time period, and is frequently referred to as swaps since they in effect represent an exchange of fixed for floating electricity price. We propose to use the Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to model swap prices since the notion of a spot price is not easily defined in these markets. For general stochastic dynamical models, we connect the spot price, the instantaneous-delivery forward price and the swap price, and analyze two different ways to apply the Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to swap pricing: Either one specifies a dynamics for the non-existing instantaneous-delivery forwards and derives the implied swap dynamics, or one models directly on the swaps. The former is shown to lead to quite complicated stochastic models for the swap price, even when the forward dynamics is simple. The latter has some theoretical problems due to a no-arbitrage condition that has to be satisfied for swaps with overlapping delivery periods. To overcome this problem, a practical modeling approach is analyzed. The market is supposed only to consist of non-overlapping swaps, and these are modelled directly. A thorough empirical study is performed using data collected from Nord Pool. Our investigations demonstrate that it is possible to state reasonable models for the swap price dynamics which is analytically tractable for risk management and option pricing purposes, however, this is an area of further research. (author)

  11. Backward-stochastic-differential-equation approach to modeling of gene expression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamarova, Evelina; Chertovskih, Roman; Ramos, Alexandre F; Aguiar, Paulo

    2017-03-01

    In this article, we introduce a backward method to model stochastic gene expression and protein-level dynamics. The protein amount is regarded as a diffusion process and is described by a backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE). Unlike many other SDE techniques proposed in the literature, the BSDE method is backward in time; that is, instead of initial conditions it requires the specification of end-point ("final") conditions, in addition to the model parametrization. To validate our approach we employ Gillespie's stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) to generate (forward) benchmark data, according to predefined gene network models. Numerical simulations show that the BSDE method is able to correctly infer the protein-level distributions that preceded a known final condition, obtained originally from the forward SSA. This makes the BSDE method a powerful systems biology tool for time-reversed simulations, allowing, for example, the assessment of the biological conditions (e.g., protein concentrations) that preceded an experimentally measured event of interest (e.g., mitosis, apoptosis, etc.).

  12. Stochastic inequalities and applications to dynamics analysis of a novel SIVS epidemic model with jumps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaona Leng

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper proposes a new nonlinear stochastic SIVS epidemic model with double epidemic hypothesis and Lévy jumps. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the threshold dynamics of the stochastic SIVS epidemic model. By using the technique of a series of stochastic inequalities, we obtain sufficient conditions for the persistence in mean and extinction of the stochastic system and the threshold which governs the extinction and the spread of the epidemic diseases. Finally, this paper describes the results of numerical simulations investigating the dynamical effects of stochastic disturbance. Our results significantly improve and generalize the corresponding results in recent literatures. The developed theoretical methods and stochastic inequalities technique can be used to investigate the high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic differential systems.

  13. Increasing frost risk associated with advanced citrus flowering dates in Kerman and Shiraz, Iran: 1960-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitchett, Jennifer M; Grab, Stefan W; Thompson, Dave I; Roshan, Gholamreza

    2014-10-01

    Flowering dates and the timing of late season frost are both driven by local ambient temperatures. However, under climatic warming observed over the past century, it remains uncertain how such impacts affect frost risk associated with plant phenophase shifts. Any increase in frost frequency or severity has the potential to damage flowers and their resultant yields and, in more extreme cases, the survival of the plant. An accurate assessment of the relationship between the timing of last frost events and phenological shifts associated with warmer climate is thus imperative. We investigate spring advances in citrus flowering dates (orange, tangerine, sweet lemon, sour lemon and sour orange) for Kerman and Shiraz, Iran from 1960 to 2010. These cities have experienced increases in both T max and T min, advances in peak flowering dates and changes in last frost dates over the study period. Based on daily instrumental climate records, the last frost dates for each year are compared with the peak flowering dates. For both cities, the rate of last frost advance lags behind the phenological advance, thus increasing frost risk. Increased frost risk will likely have considerable direct impacts on crop yields and on the associated capacity to adapt, given future climatic uncertainty.

  14. Pricing long-dated insurance contracts with stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Haastrecht, A.; Lord, R.; Pelsser, A.; Schrager, D.

    2009-01-01

    We consider the pricing of long-dated insurance contracts under stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility. In particular, we focus on the valuation of insurance options with long-term equity or foreign exchange exposures. Our modeling framework extends the stochastic volatility model of

  15. Stochastic Modelling of the Diffusion Coefficient for Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    In the paper, a new stochastic modelling of the diffusion coefficient D is presented. The modelling is based on physical understanding of the diffusion process and on some recent experimental results. The diffusion coefficients D is strongly dependent on the w/c ratio and the temperature....

  16. Stochastic models for transport in a fluidized bed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dehling, H.G; Hoffmann, A.C; Stuut, H.W.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper we study stochastic models for the transport of particles in a fluidized bed reactor and compute the associated residence time distribution (RTD). Our main model is basically a diffusion process in [0;A] with reflecting/absorbing boundary conditions, modified by allowing jumps to the

  17. Individualism in plant populations: using stochastic differential equations to model individual neighbourhood-dependent plant growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Qiming; Schneider, Manuel K; Pitchford, Jonathan W

    2008-08-01

    We study individual plant growth and size hierarchy formation in an experimental population of Arabidopsis thaliana, within an integrated analysis that explicitly accounts for size-dependent growth, size- and space-dependent competition, and environmental stochasticity. It is shown that a Gompertz-type stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, involving asymmetric competition kernels and a stochastic term which decreases with the logarithm of plant weight, efficiently describes individual plant growth, competition, and variability in the studied population. The model is evaluated within a Bayesian framework and compared to its deterministic counterpart, and to several simplified stochastic models, using distributional validation. We show that stochasticity is an important determinant of size hierarchy and that SDE models outperform the deterministic model if and only if structural components of competition (asymmetry; size- and space-dependence) are accounted for. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of plant ecology and in more general modelling situations.

  18. Stochastic dynamical models for ecological regime shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Carstensen, Jacob; Madsen, Henrik

    the physical and biological knowledge of the system, and nonlinearities introduced here can generate regime shifts or enhance the probability of regime shifts in the case of stochastic models, typically characterized by a threshold value for the known driver. A simple model for light competition between...... definition and stability of regimes become less subtle. Ecological regime shifts and their modeling must be viewed in a probabilistic manner, particularly if such model results are to be used in ecosystem management....

  19. Stochastic processes, multiscale modeling, and numerical methods for computational cellular biology

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book focuses on the modeling and mathematical analysis of stochastic dynamical systems along with their simulations. The collected chapters will review fundamental and current topics and approaches to dynamical systems in cellular biology. This text aims to develop improved mathematical and computational methods with which to study biological processes. At the scale of a single cell, stochasticity becomes important due to low copy numbers of biological molecules, such as mRNA and proteins that take part in biochemical reactions driving cellular processes. When trying to describe such biological processes, the traditional deterministic models are often inadequate, precisely because of these low copy numbers. This book presents stochastic models, which are necessary to account for small particle numbers and extrinsic noise sources. The complexity of these models depend upon whether the biochemical reactions are diffusion-limited or reaction-limited. In the former case, one needs to adopt the framework of s...

  20. Stochastic Modeling of Past Volcanic Crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Gordon

    2018-01-01

    The statistical foundation of disaster risk analysis is past experience. From a scientific perspective, history is just one realization of what might have happened, given the randomness and chaotic dynamics of Nature. Stochastic analysis of the past is an exploratory exercise in counterfactual history, considering alternative possible scenarios. In particular, the dynamic perturbations that might have transitioned a volcano from an unrest to an eruptive state need to be considered. The stochastic modeling of past volcanic crises leads to estimates of eruption probability that can illuminate historical volcanic crisis decisions. It can also inform future economic risk management decisions in regions where there has been some volcanic unrest, but no actual eruption for at least hundreds of years. Furthermore, the availability of a library of past eruption probabilities would provide benchmark support for estimates of eruption probability in future volcanic crises.

  1. A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with infectious force under intervention strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yongli; Kang, Yun; Banerjee, Malay; Wang, Weiming

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we extend a classical SIRS epidemic model with the infectious forces under intervention strategies from a deterministic framework to a stochastic differential equation (SDE) one through introducing random fluctuations. The value of our study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, by using the Markov semigroups theory, we prove that the reproduction number R0S can be used to govern the stochastic dynamics of SDE model. If R0S 1, under mild extra conditions, it has an endemic stationary distribution which leads to the stochastical persistence of the disease. Epidemiologically, we find that random fluctuations can suppress disease outbreak, which can provide us some useful control strategies to regulate disease dynamics.

  2. A Stochastic Operational Planning Model for Smart Power Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sh. Jadid

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Smart Grids are result of utilizing novel technologies such as distributed energy resources, and communication technologies in power system to compensate some of its defects. Various power resources provide some benefits for operation domain however, power system operator should use a powerful methodology to manage them. Renewable resources and load add uncertainty to the problem. So, independent system operator should use a stochastic method to manage them. A Stochastic unit commitment is presented in this paper to schedule various power resources such as distributed generation units, conventional thermal generation units, wind and PV farms, and demand response resources. Demand response resources, interruptible loads, distributed generation units, and conventional thermal generation units are used to provide required reserve for compensating stochastic nature of various resources and loads. In the presented model, resources connected to distribution network can participate in wholesale market through aggregators. Moreover, a novel three-program model which can be used by aggregators is presented in this article. Loads and distributed generation can contract with aggregators by these programs. A three-bus test system and the IEEE RTS are used to illustrate usefulness of the presented model. The results show that ISO can manage the system effectively by using this model

  3. Mapping of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model to models of population genetics and game theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between the M -species stochastic Lotka-Volterra competition (SLVC) model and the M -allele Moran model of population genetics is explored via timescale separation arguments. When selection for species is weak and the population size is large but finite, precise conditions are determined for the stochastic dynamics of the SLVC model to be mappable to the neutral Moran model, the Moran model with frequency-independent selection, and the Moran model with frequency-dependent selection (equivalently a game-theoretic formulation of the Moran model). We demonstrate how these mappings can be used to calculate extinction probabilities and the times until a species' extinction in the SLVC model.

  4. Oscillation thresholds for "striking outwards" reeds coupled to a resonator

    OpenAIRE

    Silva , Fabrice; Kergomard , Jean; Vergez , Christophe

    2007-01-01

    International audience; This paper considers a "striking outwards" reed coupled to a resonator. This expression, due to Helmholtz, is not discussed here : it corresponds to the most common model of a lip-type valve, when the valve is assumed to be a one degree of freedom oscillator. The presented work is an extension of the works done by Wilson and Beavers (1974), Tarnopolsky (2000). The range of the playing frequencies is investigated. The first results are analytical : when no losses are pr...

  5. Characterizing economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specification search

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grassi, Stefano; Proietti, Tommaso

    We extend a recently proposed Bayesian model selection technique, known as stochastic model specification search, for characterising the nature of the trend in macroeconomic time series. In particular, we focus on autoregressive models with possibly time-varying intercept and slope and decide on ...

  6. Intimate Partner Violence: A Stochastic Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidi, Elisa; Meringolo, Patrizia; Guazzini, Andrea; Bagnoli, Franco

    2017-01-01

    Intimate partner violence (IPV) has been a well-studied problem in the past psychological literature, especially through its classical methodology such as qualitative, quantitative and mixed methods. This article introduces two basic stochastic models as an alternative approach to simulate the short and long-term dynamics of a couple at risk of IPV. In both models, the members of the couple may assume a finite number of states, updating them in a probabilistic way at discrete time steps. After defining the transition probabilities, we first analyze the evolution of the couple in isolation and then we consider the case in which the individuals modify their behavior depending on the perceived violence from other couples in their environment or based on the perceived informal social support. While high perceived violence in other couples may converge toward the own presence of IPV by means a gender-specific transmission, the gender differences fade-out in the case of received informal social support. Despite the simplicity of the two stochastic models, they generate results which compare well with past experimental studies about IPV and they give important practical implications for prevention intervention in this field. Copyright: © 2016 by Fabrizio Serra editore, Pisa · Roma.

  7. A stochastic-bayesian model for the fracture probability of PWR pressure vessels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Francisco, Alexandre S.; Duran, Jorge Alberto R., E-mail: afrancisco@metal.eeimvr.uff.br, E-mail: duran@metal.eeimvr.uff.br [Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Volta Redonda, RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica

    2013-07-01

    Fracture probability of pressure vessels containing cracks can be obtained by methodologies of easy understanding, which require a deterministic treatment, complemented by statistical methods. However, more accurate results are required, methodologies need to be better formulated. This paper presents a new methodology to address this problem. First, a more rigorous methodology is obtained by means of the relationship of probability distributions that model crack incidence and nondestructive inspection efficiency using the Bayes' theorem. The result is an updated crack incidence distribution. Further, the accuracy of the methodology is improved by using a stochastic model for the crack growth. The stochastic model incorporates the statistical variability of the crack growth process, combining the stochastic theory with experimental data. Stochastic differential equations are derived by the randomization of empirical equations. From the solution of this equation, a distribution function related to the crack growth is derived. The fracture probability using both probability distribution functions is in agreement with theory, and presents realistic value for pressure vessels. (author)

  8. A stochastic-bayesian model for the fracture probability of PWR pressure vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francisco, Alexandre S.; Duran, Jorge Alberto R.

    2013-01-01

    Fracture probability of pressure vessels containing cracks can be obtained by methodologies of easy understanding, which require a deterministic treatment, complemented by statistical methods. However, more accurate results are required, methodologies need to be better formulated. This paper presents a new methodology to address this problem. First, a more rigorous methodology is obtained by means of the relationship of probability distributions that model crack incidence and nondestructive inspection efficiency using the Bayes' theorem. The result is an updated crack incidence distribution. Further, the accuracy of the methodology is improved by using a stochastic model for the crack growth. The stochastic model incorporates the statistical variability of the crack growth process, combining the stochastic theory with experimental data. Stochastic differential equations are derived by the randomization of empirical equations. From the solution of this equation, a distribution function related to the crack growth is derived. The fracture probability using both probability distribution functions is in agreement with theory, and presents realistic value for pressure vessels. (author)

  9. Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Stochastic Volatility Using Particle Filters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Xu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Time-varying volatility is common in macroeconomic data and has been incorporated into macroeconomic models in recent work. Dynamic panel data models have become increasingly popular in macroeconomics to study common relationships across countries or regions. This paper estimates dynamic panel data models with stochastic volatility by maximizing an approximate likelihood obtained via Rao-Blackwellized particle filters. Monte Carlo studies reveal the good and stable performance of our particle filter-based estimator. When the volatility of volatility is high, or when regressors are absent but stochastic volatility exists, our approach can be better than the maximum likelihood estimator which neglects stochastic volatility and generalized method of moments (GMM estimators.

  10. Water frost on Charon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buie, Marc W.; Cruikshank, Dale P.; Lebofsky, Larry A.; Tedesco, Edward F.

    1987-01-01

    New spectra of the Pluto-Charon system taken just before and during a total eclipse of the satellite are presented. The spectrum of Charon extracted from the data reveals the signature of water ice. There is no evidence for any methane or ammonia frost on the surface of Charon. The significance of these findings for the evolution of the Pluto-Charon system are discussed.

  11. Stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Parzen, Emanuel

    1962-01-01

    Well-written and accessible, this classic introduction to stochastic processes and related mathematics is appropriate for advanced undergraduate students of mathematics with a knowledge of calculus and continuous probability theory. The treatment offers examples of the wide variety of empirical phenomena for which stochastic processes provide mathematical models, and it develops the methods of probability model-building.Chapter 1 presents precise definitions of the notions of a random variable and a stochastic process and introduces the Wiener and Poisson processes. Subsequent chapters examine

  12. Development of stochastic indicator models of lithology, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.; Robey, T.H.

    1994-01-01

    Indicator geostatistical techniques have been used to produce a number of fully three-dimensional stochastic simulations of large-scale lithologic categories at the Yucca Mountain site. Each realization reproduces the available drill hole data used to condition the simulation. Information is propagated away from each point of observation in accordance with a mathematical model of spatial continuity inferred through soft data taken from published geologic cross sections. Variations among the simulated models collectively represent uncertainty in the lithology at unsampled locations. These stochastic models succeed in capturing many major features of welded-nonwelded lithologic framework of Yucca Mountain. However, contacts between welded and nonwelded rock types for individual simulations appear more complex than suggested by field observation, and a number of probable numerical artifacts exist in these models. Many of the apparent discrepancies between the simulated models and the general geology of Yucca Mountain represent characterization uncertainty, and can be traced to the sparse site data used to condition the simulations. Several vertical stratigraphic columns have been extracted from the three-dimensional stochastic models for use in simplified total-system performance assessment exercises. Simple, manual adjustments are required to eliminate the more obvious simulation artifacts and to impose a secondary set of deterministic geologic features on the overall stratigraphic framework provided by the indictor models

  13. Modelling the stochastic behaviour of primary nucleation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggioni, Giovanni Maria; Mazzotti, Marco

    2015-01-01

    We study the stochastic nature of primary nucleation and how it manifests itself in a crystallisation process at different scales and under different operating conditions. Such characteristics of nucleation are evident in many experiments where detection times of crystals are not identical, despite identical experimental conditions, but instead are distributed around an average value. While abundant experimental evidence has been reported in the literature, a clear theoretical understanding and an appropriate modelling of this feature is still missing. In this contribution, we present two models describing a batch cooling crystallisation, where the interplay between stochastic nucleation and deterministic crystal growth is described differently in each. The nucleation and growth rates of the two models are estimated by a comprehensive set of measurements of paracetamol crystallisation from aqueous solution in a 1 mL vessel [Kadam et al., Chemical Engineering Science, 2012, 72, 10-19]. Both models are applied to the cooling crystallisation process above under different operating conditions, i.e. different volumes, initial concentrations, cooling rates. The advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches are illustrated and discussed, with particular reference to their use across scales of nucleation rate measured in very small crystallisers.

  14. Persistence and extinction for stochastic logistic model with Levy noise and impulsive perturbation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Lu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates a stochastic logistic model with Levy noise and impulsive perturbation. In the model, the impulsive perturbation and Levy noise are taken into account simultaneously. This model is new and more feasible and more accordance with the actual. The definition of solution to a stochastic differential equation with Levy noise and impulsive perturbation is established. Based on this definition, we show that our model has a unique global positive solution and obtains its explicit expression. Sufficient conditions for extinction are established as well as nonpersistence in the mean, weak persistence and stochastic permanence. The threshold between weak persistence and extinction is obtained.

  15. Host plant development, water level and water parameters shape Phragmites australis-associated oomycete communities and determine reed pathogen dynamics in a large lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielgoss, Anna; Nechwatal, Jan; Bogs, Carolin; Mendgen, Kurt

    2009-08-01

    In a 3-year-study, we analysed the population dynamics of the reed pathogen Pythium phragmitis and other reed-associated oomycetes colonizing fresh and dried reed leaves in the littoral zone of a large lake. Oomycete communities derived from internal transcribed spacer clone libraries were clearly differentiated according to substrate and seasonal influences. In fresh leaves, diverse communities consisting of P. phragmitis and other reed-associated pathogens were generally dominant. Pythium phragmitis populations peaked in spring with the emergence of young reed shoots, and in autumn after extreme flooding events. In summer it decreased with falling water levels, changing water chemistry and rising temperatures. Another Pythium species was also highly abundant in fresh leaves throughout the year and might represent a new, as-yet uncultured reed pathogen. In dried leaves, reed pathogens were rarely detected, whereas saprophytic species occurred abundantly during all seasons. Saprophyte communities were less diverse, less temperature sensitive and independent of reed development. In general, our results provide evidence for the occurrence of highly specialized sets of reed-associated oomycetes in a natural reed ecosystem. Quantitative analyses (clone abundances and quantitative real-time PCR) revealed that the reed pathogen P. phragmitis is particularly affected by changing water levels, water chemistry and the stage of reed development.

  16. Stochastic modeling of central apnea events in preterm infants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, Matthew T; Lake, Douglas E; Randall Moorman, J; Delos, John B; Lee, Hoshik; Fairchild, Karen D; Kattwinkel, John

    2016-01-01

    A near-ubiquitous pathology in very low birth weight infants is neonatal apnea, breathing pauses with slowing of the heart and falling blood oxygen. Events of substantial duration occasionally occur after an infant is discharged from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). It is not known whether apneas result from a predictable process or from a stochastic process, but the observation that they occur in seemingly random clusters justifies the use of stochastic models. We use a hidden-Markov model to analyze the distribution of durations of apneas and the distribution of times between apneas. The model suggests the presence of four breathing states, ranging from very stable (with an average lifetime of 12 h) to very unstable (with an average lifetime of 10 s). Although the states themselves are not visible, the mathematical analysis gives estimates of the transition rates among these states. We have obtained these transition rates, and shown how they change with post-menstrual age; as expected, the residence time in the more stable breathing states increases with age. We also extrapolated the model to predict the frequency of very prolonged apnea during the first year of life. This paradigm—stochastic modeling of cardiorespiratory control in neonatal infants to estimate risk for severe clinical events—may be a first step toward personalized risk assessment for life threatening apnea events after NICU discharge. (paper)

  17. Stochastic modeling of central apnea events in preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Matthew T; Delos, John B; Lake, Douglas E; Lee, Hoshik; Fairchild, Karen D; Kattwinkel, John; Moorman, J Randall

    2016-04-01

    A near-ubiquitous pathology in very low birth weight infants is neonatal apnea, breathing pauses with slowing of the heart and falling blood oxygen. Events of substantial duration occasionally occur after an infant is discharged from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). It is not known whether apneas result from a predictable process or from a stochastic process, but the observation that they occur in seemingly random clusters justifies the use of stochastic models. We use a hidden-Markov model to analyze the distribution of durations of apneas and the distribution of times between apneas. The model suggests the presence of four breathing states, ranging from very stable (with an average lifetime of 12 h) to very unstable (with an average lifetime of 10 s). Although the states themselves are not visible, the mathematical analysis gives estimates of the transition rates among these states. We have obtained these transition rates, and shown how they change with post-menstrual age; as expected, the residence time in the more stable breathing states increases with age. We also extrapolated the model to predict the frequency of very prolonged apnea during the first year of life. This paradigm-stochastic modeling of cardiorespiratory control in neonatal infants to estimate risk for severe clinical events-may be a first step toward personalized risk assessment for life threatening apnea events after NICU discharge.

  18. Analysis of dynamic regimes in stochastically forced Kaldor model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryazanova, Tatyana; Ryashko, Lev

    2015-01-01

    We consider the business cycle Kaldor model forced by random noise. Detailed parametric analysis of deterministic system is carried out and zones of coexisting stable equilibrium and stable limit cycle are found. Noise-induced transitions between these attractors are studied using stochastic sensitivity function technique and confidence domains method. Critical values of noise intensity corresponding to noise-induced transitions “equilibrium → cycle” and “cycle → equilibrium” are estimated. Dominants in combined stochastic regimes are discussed.

  19. Effects of fin pitch and array of the frost layer growth on extended surface of a heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Dong Keun; Lee, Kwan Soo

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of the fin array and pitch on the frost layer growth of a heat exchanger. The numerical results are compared with experimental data of a cold plate to validate the present model, and agree well with experimental data within a maximum error of 8%. The characteristics of the frost formation on staggered fin array are somewhat different from those of in-line array. For fin pitch below 10 mm, the frost layer growth of second fin in the staggered array is affected by that of first fin. The heat transfer of single fin deteriorate with decreasing fin pitch regardless of fin array, however, the thermal performance of a heat exchanger, considering increase of heat surface area, becomes better

  20. Reed Watkins: A Passion for Plume Moths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed Watkins has curated the nationl Pterophordiae or plume moth collection at the National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, for the past 13 years. He has decreased the number of specimens of unsorted and unidentified material and has expanded the collection from 3 to 6 cabinets....

  1. Reconstructing patterns of temperature, phenology, and frost damage over 124 years: spring damage risk is increasing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augspurger, Carol K

    2013-01-01

    Climate change, with both warmer spring temperatures and greater temperature fluctuations, has altered phenologies, possibly leading to greater risk of spring frost damage to temperate deciduous woody plants. Phenological observations of 20 woody species from 1993 to 2012 in Trelease Woods, Champaign County, Illinois, USA, were used to identify years with frost damage to vegetative and reproductive phases. Local temperature records were used in combination with the phenological observations to determine what combinations of the two were associated with damage. Finally, a long-term temperature record (1889-1992) was evaluated to determine if the frequency of frost damage has risen in recent decades. Frost Frost damage occurred in five years in the interior and in three additional years at only the forest edge. The degree of damage varied with species, life stage, tissue (vegetative or reproductive), and phenological phase. Common features associated with the occurrence of damage to interior plants were (1) a period of unusual warm temperatures in March, followed by (2) a frost event in April with a minimum temperature frost damage increased significantly, from 0.03 during 1889-1979 to 0.21 during 1980-2012. When the criteria were "softened" to frost damage events more common.

  2. Void structure of concrete with superabsorbent polymers and its relation to frost resistance of concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasholt, Marianne Tange; Jensen, Ole Mejlhede; Laustsen, Sara

    2013-01-01

    the difference between poor and satisfactory frost-resistance. Furthermore, the results indicate that voids created directly by SAP protect concrete against frost deterioration just like other air voids; if the concrete contains enough SAP voids, these alone can provide sufficient frost resistance. © 2013 RILEM....

  3. Modeling animal movements using stochastic differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Alan A. Ager; Bruce K. Johnson; John G. Kie

    2004-01-01

    We describe the use of bivariate stochastic differential equations (SDE) for modeling movements of 216 radiocollared female Rocky Mountain elk at the Starkey Experimental Forest and Range in northeastern Oregon. Spatially and temporally explicit vector fields were estimated using approximating difference equations and nonparametric regression techniques. Estimated...

  4. Modeling reliability of power systems substations by using stochastic automata networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Šnipas, Mindaugas; Radziukynas, Virginijus; Valakevičius, Eimutis

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, stochastic automata networks (SANs) formalism to model reliability of power systems substations is applied. The proposed strategy allows reducing the size of state space of Markov chain model and simplifying system specification. Two case studies of standard configurations of substations are considered in detail. SAN models with different assumptions were created. SAN approach is compared with exact reliability calculation by using a minimal path set method. Modeling results showed that total independence of automata can be assumed for relatively small power systems substations with reliable equipment. In this case, the implementation of Markov chain model by a using SAN method is a relatively easy task. - Highlights: • We present the methodology to apply stochastic automata network formalism to create Markov chain models of power systems. • The stochastic automata network approach is combined with minimal path sets and structural functions. • Two models of substation configurations with different model assumptions are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology. • Modeling results of system with independent automata and functional transition rates are similar. • The conditions when total independence of automata can be assumed are addressed.

  5. Development of a Stochastically-driven, Forward Predictive Performance Model for PEMFCs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, David Benjamin Paul

    A one-dimensional multi-scale coupled, transient, and mechanistic performance model for a PEMFC membrane electrode assembly has been developed. The model explicitly includes each of the 5 layers within a membrane electrode assembly and solves for the transport of charge, heat, mass, species, dissolved water, and liquid water. Key features of the model include the use of a multi-step implementation of the HOR reaction on the anode, agglomerate catalyst sub-models for both the anode and cathode catalyst layers, a unique approach that links the composition of the catalyst layer to key properties within the agglomerate model and the implementation of a stochastic input-based approach for component material properties. The model employs a new methodology for validation using statistically varying input parameters and statistically-based experimental performance data; this model represents the first stochastic input driven unit cell performance model. The stochastic input driven performance model was used to identify optimal ionomer content within the cathode catalyst layer, demonstrate the role of material variation in potential low performing MEA materials, provide explanation for the performance of low-Pt loaded MEAs, and investigate the validity of transient-sweep experimental diagnostic methods.

  6. Information-theoretic model selection for optimal prediction of stochastic dynamical systems from data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmon, David

    2018-03-01

    In the absence of mechanistic or phenomenological models of real-world systems, data-driven models become necessary. The discovery of various embedding theorems in the 1980s and 1990s motivated a powerful set of tools for analyzing deterministic dynamical systems via delay-coordinate embeddings of observations of their component states. However, in many branches of science, the condition of operational determinism is not satisfied, and stochastic models must be brought to bear. For such stochastic models, the tool set developed for delay-coordinate embedding is no longer appropriate, and a new toolkit must be developed. We present an information-theoretic criterion, the negative log-predictive likelihood, for selecting the embedding dimension for a predictively optimal data-driven model of a stochastic dynamical system. We develop a nonparametric estimator for the negative log-predictive likelihood and compare its performance to a recently proposed criterion based on active information storage. Finally, we show how the output of the model selection procedure can be used to compare candidate predictors for a stochastic system to an information-theoretic lower bound.

  7. Toward Development of a Stochastic Wake Model: Validation Using LES and Turbine Loads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Sang Moon

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Wind turbines within an array do not experience free-stream undisturbed flow fields. Rather, the flow fields on internal turbines are influenced by wakes generated by upwind unit and exhibit different dynamic characteristics relative to the free stream. The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC standard 61400-1 for the design of wind turbines only considers a deterministic wake model for the design of a wind plant. This study is focused on the development of a stochastic model for waked wind fields. First, high-fidelity physics-based waked wind velocity fields are generated using Large-Eddy Simulation (LES. Stochastic characteristics of these LES waked wind velocity field, including mean and turbulence components, are analyzed. Wake-related mean and turbulence field-related parameters are then estimated for use with a stochastic model, using Multivariate Multiple Linear Regression (MMLR with the LES data. To validate the simulated wind fields based on the stochastic model, wind turbine tower and blade loads are generated using aeroelastic simulation for utility-scale wind turbine models and compared with those based directly on the LES inflow. The study’s overall objective is to offer efficient and validated stochastic approaches that are computationally tractable for assessing the performance and loads of turbines operating in wakes.

  8. Attaching Copper Wires to Magnetic-Reed-Switch Leads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamila, Rudolf

    1987-01-01

    Bonding method reliably joins copper wires to short iron-alloy leads from glass-encased dry magnetic-reed switch without disturbing integrity of glass-to-metal seal. Joint resistant to high temperatures and has low electrical resistance.

  9. Stochastic modeling of thermal fatigue crack growth

    CERN Document Server

    Radu, Vasile

    2015-01-01

    The book describes a systematic stochastic modeling approach for assessing thermal-fatigue crack-growth in mixing tees, based on the power spectral density of temperature fluctuation at the inner pipe surface. It shows the development of a frequency-temperature response function in the framework of single-input, single-output (SISO) methodology from random noise/signal theory under sinusoidal input. The frequency response of stress intensity factor (SIF) is obtained by a polynomial fitting procedure of thermal stress profiles at various instants of time. The method, which takes into account the variability of material properties, and has been implemented in a real-world application, estimates the probabilities of failure by considering a limit state function and Monte Carlo analysis, which are based on the proposed stochastic model. Written in a comprehensive and accessible style, this book presents a new and effective method for assessing thermal fatigue crack, and it is intended as a concise and practice-or...

  10. Fuzzy Stochastic Optimization Theory, Models and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Shuming

    2012-01-01

    Covering in detail both theoretical and practical perspectives, this book is a self-contained and systematic depiction of current fuzzy stochastic optimization that deploys the fuzzy random variable as a core mathematical tool to model the integrated fuzzy random uncertainty. It proceeds in an orderly fashion from the requisite theoretical aspects of the fuzzy random variable to fuzzy stochastic optimization models and their real-life case studies.   The volume reflects the fact that randomness and fuzziness (or vagueness) are two major sources of uncertainty in the real world, with significant implications in a number of settings. In industrial engineering, management and economics, the chances are high that decision makers will be confronted with information that is simultaneously probabilistically uncertain and fuzzily imprecise, and optimization in the form of a decision must be made in an environment that is doubly uncertain, characterized by a co-occurrence of randomness and fuzziness. This book begins...

  11. Powering stochastic reliability models by discrete event simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor; Wang, Xiaoyun

    2012-01-01

    it difficult to find a solution to the problem. The power of modern computers and recent developments in discrete-event simulation (DES) software enable to diminish some of the drawbacks of stochastic models. In this paper we describe the insights we have gained based on using both Markov and DES models...

  12. Portfolio Optimization with Stochastic Dividends and Stochastic Volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varga, Katherine Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    We consider an optimal investment-consumption portfolio optimization model in which an investor receives stochastic dividends. As a first problem, we allow the drift of stock price to be a bounded function. Next, we consider a stochastic volatility model. In each problem, we use the dynamic programming method to derive the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman…

  13. Response spectrum analysis of a stochastic seismic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Koji; Sakata, Masaru; Takemoto, Shinichiro.

    1990-01-01

    The stochastic response spectrum approach is presented for predicting the dynamic behavior of structures to earthquake excitation expressed by a random process, one of whose sample functions can be regarded as a recorded strong-motion earthquake accelerogram. The approach consists of modeling recorded ground motion by a random process and the root-mean-square response (rms) analysis of a single-degree-of-freedom system by using the moment equations method. The stochastic response spectrum is obtained as a plot of the maximum rms response versus the natural period of the system and is compared with the conventional response spectrum. (author)

  14. Discrete stochastic analogs of Erlang epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M; Dougherty, Eric R

    2018-12-01

    Erlang differential equation models of epidemic processes provide more realistic disease-class transition dynamics from susceptible (S) to exposed (E) to infectious (I) and removed (R) categories than the ubiquitous SEIR model. The latter is itself is at one end of the spectrum of Erlang SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models with [Formula: see text] concatenated E compartments and [Formula: see text] concatenated I compartments. Discrete-time models, however, are computationally much simpler to simulate and fit to epidemic outbreak data than continuous-time differential equations, and are also much more readily extended to include demographic and other types of stochasticity. Here we formulate discrete-time deterministic analogs of the Erlang models, and their stochastic extension, based on a time-to-go distributional principle. Depending on which distributions are used (e.g. discretized Erlang, Gamma, Beta, or Uniform distributions), we demonstrate that our formulation represents both a discretization of Erlang epidemic models and generalizations thereof. We consider the challenges of fitting SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models and our discrete-time analog to data (the recent outbreak of Ebola in Liberia). We demonstrate that the latter performs much better than the former; although confining fits to strict SEIR formulations reduces the numerical challenges, but sacrifices best-fit likelihood scores by at least 7%.

  15. Stochastic modeling of oligodendrocyte generation in cell culture: model validation with time-lapse data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noble Mark

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of this paper is two-fold. The first objective is to validate the assumptions behind a stochastic model developed earlier by these authors to describe oligodendrocyte generation in cell culture. The second is to generate time-lapse data that may help biomathematicians to build stochastic models of cell proliferation and differentiation under other experimental scenarios. Results Using time-lapse video recording it is possible to follow the individual evolutions of different cells within each clone. This experimental technique is very laborious and cannot replace model-based quantitative inference from clonal data. However, it is unrivalled in validating the structure of a stochastic model intended to describe cell proliferation and differentiation at the clonal level. In this paper, such data are reported and analyzed for oligodendrocyte precursor cells cultured in vitro. Conclusion The results strongly support the validity of the most basic assumptions underpinning the previously proposed model of oligodendrocyte development in cell culture. However, there are some discrepancies; the most important is that the contribution of progenitor cell death to cell kinetics in this experimental system has been underestimated.

  16. Bond and CDS Pricing via the Stochastic Recovery Black-Cox Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert Cohen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Building on recent work incorporating recovery risk into structural models by Cohen & Costanzino (2015, we consider the Black-Cox model with an added recovery risk driver. The recovery risk driver arises naturally in the context of imperfect information implicit in the structural framework. This leads to a two-factor structural model we call the Stochastic Recovery Black-Cox model, whereby the asset risk driver At defines the default trigger and the recovery risk driver Rt defines the amount recovered in the event of default. We then price zero-coupon bonds and credit default swaps under the Stochastic Recovery Black-Cox model. Finally, we compare our results with the classic Black-Cox model, give explicit expressions for the recovery risk premium in the Stochastic Recovery Black-Cox model, and detail how the introduction of separate but correlated risk drivers leads to a decoupling of the default and recovery risk premiums in the credit spread. We conclude this work by computing the effect of adding coupons that are paid continuously until default, and price perpetual (consol bonds in our two-factor firm value model, extending calculations in the seminal paper by Leland (1994.

  17. Pretreatment of Reed by Wet Oxidation and Subsequent Utilization of the Pretreated Fibers for Ethanol Production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Szijarto, Nora; Kádár, Zsófia; Varga, Eniko

    2009-01-01

    lignocelluloses usually do. In the present study, wet oxidation was investigated as the pretreatment method to enhance the enzymatic digestibility of reed cellulose to soluble sugars and thus improve the convertibility of reed to ethanol. The most effective treatment increased the digestibility of reed cellulose...... of cellulose to glucose was 82.4%. Simultaneous saccharification and fermentation of pretreated solids resulted in a final ethanol concentration as high as 8.7 g/L, yielding 73% of the theoretical....

  18. Stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion: A new model for initiation and growth of multiple corrosion pits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valor, A.; Caleyo, F.; Alfonso, L.; Rivas, D.; Hallen, J.M.

    2007-01-01

    In this work, a new stochastic model capable of simulating pitting corrosion is developed and validated. Pitting corrosion is modeled as the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time for pit initiation is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. In this way, the exponential and Weibull distributions can be considered as the possible distributions for pit initiation time. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Extreme value statistics is used to find the distribution of maximum pit depths resulting from the combination of the initiation and growth processes for multiple pits. The proposed model is validated using several published experiments on pitting corrosion. It is capable of reproducing the experimental observations with higher quality than the stochastic models available in the literature for pitting corrosion

  19. Stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion: A new model for initiation and growth of multiple corrosion pits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valor, A. [Facultad de Fisica, Universidad de La Habana, San Lazaro y L, Vedado, 10400 Havana (Cuba); Caleyo, F. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico)]. E-mail: fcaleyo@gmail.com; Alfonso, L. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico); Rivas, D. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico); Hallen, J.M. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico)

    2007-02-15

    In this work, a new stochastic model capable of simulating pitting corrosion is developed and validated. Pitting corrosion is modeled as the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time for pit initiation is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. In this way, the exponential and Weibull distributions can be considered as the possible distributions for pit initiation time. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Extreme value statistics is used to find the distribution of maximum pit depths resulting from the combination of the initiation and growth processes for multiple pits. The proposed model is validated using several published experiments on pitting corrosion. It is capable of reproducing the experimental observations with higher quality than the stochastic models available in the literature for pitting corrosion.

  20. Islands in a desert : breeding ecology of the African Reed Warbler Acrocephalus baeticatus in Namibia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eising, CM; Komdeur, J; Buys, J; Reemer, M; Richardson, DS; Richardson, David S.

    The continental African Reed Warbler Acrocephalus baeticatus, like its relative the Seychelles Warbler Acrocephalus sechellensis, breeds in isolated patches. We studied the mating system of the African Reed Warbler to see whether this species, like the Seychelles Warbler, shows co-operative