WorldWideScience

Sample records for reducing temperature uncertainties

  1. Crop Model Improvement Reduces the Uncertainty of the Response to Temperature of Multi-Model Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maiorano, Andrea; Martre, Pierre; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Mueller, Christoph; Roetter, Reimund P.; Ruane, Alex C.; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Enli

    2016-01-01

    To improve climate change impact estimates and to quantify their uncertainty, multi-model ensembles (MMEs) have been suggested. Model improvements can improve the accuracy of simulations and reduce the uncertainty of climate change impact assessments. Furthermore, they can reduce the number of models needed in a MME. Herein, 15 wheat growth models of a larger MME were improved through re-parameterization and/or incorporating or modifying heat stress effects on phenology, leaf growth and senescence, biomass growth, and grain number and size using detailed field experimental data from the USDA Hot Serial Cereal experiment (calibration data set). Simulation results from before and after model improvement were then evaluated with independent field experiments from a CIMMYT worldwide field trial network (evaluation data set). Model improvements decreased the variation (10th to 90th model ensemble percentile range) of grain yields simulated by the MME on average by 39% in the calibration data set and by 26% in the independent evaluation data set for crops grown in mean seasonal temperatures greater than 24 C. MME mean squared error in simulating grain yield decreased by 37%. A reduction in MME uncertainty range by 27% increased MME prediction skills by 47%. Results suggest that the mean level of variation observed in field experiments and used as a benchmark can be reached with half the number of models in the MME. Improving crop models is therefore important to increase the certainty of model-based impact assessments and allow more practical, i.e. smaller MMEs to be used effectively.

  2. The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Enli; Martre, Pierre; Zhao, Zhigan

    2017-01-01

    , we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature......Quality) and analysing their results against the HSC data and an additional global dataset from the International Heat Stress Genotpye Experiment (IHSGE)8 carried out by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). More importantly, we derive, based on newest knowledge and data, a set of new...

  3. Crop model improvement reduces the uncertainty of the response to temperature of multi-model ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maiorano, Andrea; Martre, Pierre; Asseng, Senthold

    2017-01-01

    of models needed in a MME. Herein, 15 wheat growth models of a larger MME were improved through re-parameterization and/or incorporating or modifying heat stress effects on phenology, leaf growth and senescence, biomass growth, and grain number and size using detailed field experimental data from the USDA...... ensemble percentile range) of grain yields simulated by the MME on average by 39% in the calibration data set and by 26% in the independent evaluation data set for crops grown in mean seasonal temperatures >24 °C. MME mean squared error in simulating grain yield decreased by 37%. A reduction in MME...

  4. High-temperature uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timusk, T.

    2005-01-01

    Recent experiments reveal that the mechanism responsible for the superconducting properties of cuprate materials is even more mysterious than we thought. Two decades ago, Georg Bednorz and Alex Mueller of IBM's research laboratory in Zurich rocked the world of physics when they discovered a material that lost all resistance to electrical current at the record temperature of 36 K. Until then, superconductivity was thought to be a strictly low-temperature phenomenon that required costly refrigeration. Moreover, the IBM discovery - for which Bednorz and Mueller were awarded the 1987 Nobel Prize for Physics - was made in a ceramic copper-oxide material that nobody expected to be particularly special. Proposed applications for these 'cuprates' abounded. High-temperature superconductivity, particularly if it could be extended to room temperature, offered the promise of levitating trains, ultra-efficient power cables, and even supercomputers based on superconducting quantum interference devices. But these applications have been slow to materialize. Moreover, almost 20 years on, the physics behind this strange state of matter remains a mystery. (U.K.)

  5. Quantifying data worth toward reducing predictive uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dausman, A.M.; Doherty, J.; Langevin, C.D.; Sukop, M.C.

    2010-01-01

    The present study demonstrates a methodology for optimization of environmental data acquisition. Based on the premise that the worth of data increases in proportion to its ability to reduce the uncertainty of key model predictions, the methodology can be used to compare the worth of different data types, gathered at different locations within study areas of arbitrary complexity. The method is applied to a hypothetical nonlinear, variable density numerical model of salt and heat transport. The relative utilities of temperature and concentration measurements at different locations within the model domain are assessed in terms of their ability to reduce the uncertainty associated with predictions of movement of the salt water interface in response to a decrease in fresh water recharge. In order to test the sensitivity of the method to nonlinear model behavior, analyses were repeated for multiple realizations of system properties. Rankings of observation worth were similar for all realizations, indicating robust performance of the methodology when employed in conjunction with a highly nonlinear model. The analysis showed that while concentration and temperature measurements can both aid in the prediction of interface movement, concentration measurements, especially when taken in proximity to the interface at locations where the interface is expected to move, are of greater worth than temperature measurements. Nevertheless, it was also demonstrated that pairs of temperature measurements, taken in strategic locations with respect to the interface, can also lead to more precise predictions of interface movement. Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association.

  6. Understanding and reducing statistical uncertainties in nebular abundance determinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesson, R.; Stock, D. J.; Scicluna, P.

    2012-06-01

    Whenever observations are compared to theories, an estimate of the uncertainties associated with the observations is vital if the comparison is to be meaningful. However, many or even most determinations of temperatures, densities and abundances in photoionized nebulae do not quote the associated uncertainty. Those that do typically propagate the uncertainties using analytical techniques which rely on assumptions that generally do not hold. Motivated by this issue, we have developed Nebular Empirical Analysis Tool (NEAT), a new code for calculating chemical abundances in photoionized nebulae. The code carries out a standard analysis of lists of emission lines using long-established techniques to estimate the amount of interstellar extinction, calculate representative temperatures and densities, compute ionic abundances from both collisionally excited lines and recombination lines, and finally to estimate total elemental abundances using an ionization correction scheme. NEATuses a Monte Carlo technique to robustly propagate uncertainties from line flux measurements through to the derived abundances. We show that, for typical observational data, this approach is superior to analytic estimates of uncertainties. NEAT also accounts for the effect of upward biasing on measurements of lines with low signal-to-noise ratio, allowing us to accurately quantify the effect of this bias on abundance determinations. We find not only that the effect can result in significant overestimates of heavy element abundances derived from weak lines, but also that taking it into account reduces the uncertainty of these abundance determinations. Finally, we investigate the effect of possible uncertainties in R, the ratio of selective-to-total extinction, on abundance determinations. We find that the uncertainty due to this parameter is negligible compared to the statistical uncertainties due to typical line flux measurement uncertainties.

  7. Neural Mechanisms of Updating under Reducible and Irreducible Uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Kenji; Hsu, Ming

    2017-07-19

    Adaptive decision making depends on an agent's ability to use environmental signals to reduce uncertainty. However, because of multiple types of uncertainty, agents must take into account not only the extent to which signals violate prior expectations but also whether uncertainty can be reduced in the first place. Here we studied how human brains of both sexes respond to signals under conditions of reducible and irreducible uncertainty. We show behaviorally that subjects' value updating was sensitive to the reducibility of uncertainty, and could be quantitatively characterized by a Bayesian model where agents ignore expectancy violations that do not update beliefs or values. Using fMRI, we found that neural processes underlying belief and value updating were separable from responses to expectancy violation, and that reducibility of uncertainty in value modulated connections from belief-updating regions to value-updating regions. Together, these results provide insights into how agents use knowledge about uncertainty to make better decisions while ignoring mere expectancy violation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT To make good decisions, a person must observe the environment carefully, and use these observations to reduce uncertainty about consequences of actions. Importantly, uncertainty should not be reduced purely based on how surprising the observations are, particularly because in some cases uncertainty is not reducible. Here we show that the human brain indeed reduces uncertainty adaptively by taking into account the nature of uncertainty and ignoring mere surprise. Behaviorally, we show that human subjects reduce uncertainty in a quasioptimal Bayesian manner. Using fMRI, we characterize brain regions that may be involved in uncertainty reduction, as well as the network they constitute, and dissociate them from brain regions that respond to mere surprise. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/376972-11$15.00/0.

  8. Reducing prediction uncertainty of weather controlled systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.

    2007-01-01

    In closed agricultural systems the weather acts both as a disturbance and as a resource. By using weather forecasts in control strategies the effects of disturbances can be minimized whereas the resources can be utilized. In this situation weather forecast uncertainty and model based control are

  9. Reducing Reliability Uncertainties for Marine Renewable Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam D. Weller

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs are a widely used metric of technology maturity and risk for marine renewable energy (MRE devices. To-date, a large number of device concepts have been proposed which have reached the early validation stages of development (TRLs 1–3. Only a handful of mature designs have attained pre-commercial development status following prototype sea trials (TRLs 7–8. In order to navigate through the aptly named “valley of death” (TRLs 4–6 towards commercial realisation, it is necessary for new technologies to be de-risked in terms of component durability and reliability. In this paper the scope of the reliability assessment module of the DTOcean Design Tool is outlined including aspects of Tool integration, data provision and how prediction uncertainties are accounted for. In addition, two case studies are reported of mooring component fatigue testing providing insight into long-term component use and system design for MRE devices. The case studies are used to highlight how test data could be utilised to improve the prediction capabilities of statistical reliability assessment approaches, such as the bottom–up statistical method.

  10. Thermodynamic Temperatures of High-Temperature Fixed Points: Uncertainties Due to Temperature Drop and Emissivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, P.; Machin, G.; Bloembergen, P.; Lowe, D.; Whittam, A.

    2014-07-01

    This study forms part of the European Metrology Research Programme project implementing the New Kelvin to assign thermodynamic temperatures to a selected set of high-temperature fixed points (HTFPs), Cu, Co-C, Pt-C, and Re-C. A realistic thermal model of these HTFPs, developed in finite volume software ANSYS FLUENT, was constructed to quantify the uncertainty associated with the temperature drop across the back wall of the cell. In addition, the widely applied software package, STEEP3 was used to investigate the influence of cell emissivity. The temperature drop, , relates to the temperature difference due to the net loss of heat from the aperture of the cavity between the back wall of the cavity, viewed by the thermometer, defining the radiance temperature, and the solid-liquid interface of the alloy, defining the transition temperature of the HTFP. The actual value of can be used either as a correction (with associated uncertainty) to thermodynamic temperature evaluations of HTFPs, or as an uncertainty contribution to the overall estimated uncertainty. In addition, the effect of a range of furnace temperature profiles on the temperature drop was calculated and found to be negligible for Cu, Co-C, and Pt-C and small only for Re-C. The effective isothermal emissivity is calculated over the wavelength range from 450 nm to 850 nm for different assumed values of surface emissivity. Even when furnace temperature profiles are taken into account, the estimated emissivities change only slightly from the effective isothermal emissivity of the bare cell. These emissivity calculations are used to estimate the uncertainty in the temperature assignment due to the uncertainty in the emissivity of the blackbody.

  11. Quantifying and Reducing Curve-Fitting Uncertainty in Isc

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campanelli, Mark; Duck, Benjamin; Emery, Keith

    2015-06-14

    Current-voltage (I-V) curve measurements of photovoltaic (PV) devices are used to determine performance parameters and to establish traceable calibration chains. Measurement standards specify localized curve fitting methods, e.g., straight-line interpolation/extrapolation of the I-V curve points near short-circuit current, Isc. By considering such fits as statistical linear regressions, uncertainties in the performance parameters are readily quantified. However, the legitimacy of such a computed uncertainty requires that the model be a valid (local) representation of the I-V curve and that the noise be sufficiently well characterized. Using more data points often has the advantage of lowering the uncertainty. However, more data points can make the uncertainty in the fit arbitrarily small, and this fit uncertainty misses the dominant residual uncertainty due to so-called model discrepancy. Using objective Bayesian linear regression for straight-line fits for Isc, we investigate an evidence-based method to automatically choose data windows of I-V points with reduced model discrepancy. We also investigate noise effects. Uncertainties, aligned with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM), are quantified throughout.

  12. Quantifying and Reducing Curve-Fitting Uncertainty in Isc: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campanelli, Mark; Duck, Benjamin; Emery, Keith

    2015-09-28

    Current-voltage (I-V) curve measurements of photovoltaic (PV) devices are used to determine performance parameters and to establish traceable calibration chains. Measurement standards specify localized curve fitting methods, e.g., straight-line interpolation/extrapolation of the I-V curve points near short-circuit current, Isc. By considering such fits as statistical linear regressions, uncertainties in the performance parameters are readily quantified. However, the legitimacy of such a computed uncertainty requires that the model be a valid (local) representation of the I-V curve and that the noise be sufficiently well characterized. Using more data points often has the advantage of lowering the uncertainty. However, more data points can make the uncertainty in the fit arbitrarily small, and this fit uncertainty misses the dominant residual uncertainty due to so-called model discrepancy. Using objective Bayesian linear regression for straight-line fits for Isc, we investigate an evidence-based method to automatically choose data windows of I-V points with reduced model discrepancy. We also investigate noise effects. Uncertainties, aligned with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM), are quantified throughout.

  13. Reducing the top quark mass uncertainty with jet grooming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreassen, Anders; Schwartz, Matthew D.

    2017-10-01

    The measurement of the top quark mass has large systematic uncertainties coming from the Monte Carlo simulations that are used to match theory and experiment. We explore how much that uncertainty can be reduced by using jet grooming procedures. Using the ATLAS A14 tunes of pythia, we estimate the uncertainty from the choice of tuning parameters in what is meant by the Monte Carlo mass to be around 530 MeV without any corrections. This uncertainty can be reduced by 60% to 200 MeV by calibrating to the W mass and by 70% to 140 MeV by additionally applying soft-drop jet grooming (or to 170 MeV using trimming). At e + e - colliders, the associated uncertainty is around 110 MeV, reducing to 50 MeV after calibrating to the W mass. By analyzing the tuning parameters, we conclude that the importance of jet grooming after calibrating to the W -mass is to reduce sensitivity to the underlying event.

  14. Uncertainty Analysis of the Temperature–Resistance Relationship of Temperature Sensing Fabric

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Dawood Husain

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports the uncertainty analysis of the temperature–resistance (TR data of the newly developed temperature sensing fabric (TSF, which is a double-layer knitted structure fabricated on an electronic flat-bed knitting machine, made of polyester as a basal yarn, and embedded with fine metallic wire as sensing element. The measurement principle of the TSF is identical to temperature resistance detector (RTD; that is, change in resistance due to change in temperature. The regression uncertainty (uncertainty within repeats and repeatability uncertainty (uncertainty among repeats were estimated by analysing more than 300 TR experimental repeats of 50 TSF samples. The experiments were performed under dynamic heating and cooling environments on a purpose-built test rig within the temperature range of 20–50 °C. The continuous experimental data was recorded through LabVIEW-based graphical user interface. The result showed that temperature and resistance values were not only repeatable but reproducible, with only minor variations. The regression uncertainty was found to be less than ±0.3 °C; the TSF sample made of Ni and W wires showed regression uncertainty of <±0.13 °C in comparison to Cu-based TSF samples (>±0.18 °C. The cooling TR data showed considerably reduced values (±0.07 °C of uncertainty in comparison with the heating TR data (±0.24 °C. The repeatability uncertainty was found to be less than ±0.5 °C. By increasing the number of samples and repeats, the uncertainties may be reduced further. The TSF could be used for continuous measurement of the temperature profile on the surface of the human body.

  15. Can agent based models effectively reduce fisheries management implementation uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drexler, M.

    2016-02-01

    Uncertainty is an inherent feature of fisheries management. Implementation uncertainty remains a challenge to quantify often due to unintended responses of users to management interventions. This problem will continue to plague both single species and ecosystem based fisheries management advice unless the mechanisms driving these behaviors are properly understood. Equilibrium models, where each actor in the system is treated as uniform and predictable, are not well suited to forecast the unintended behaviors of individual fishers. Alternatively, agent based models (AMBs) can simulate the behaviors of each individual actor driven by differing incentives and constraints. This study evaluated the feasibility of using AMBs to capture macro scale behaviors of the US West Coast Groundfish fleet. Agent behavior was specified at the vessel level. Agents made daily fishing decisions using knowledge of their own cost structure, catch history, and the histories of catch and quota markets. By adding only a relatively small number of incentives, the model was able to reproduce highly realistic macro patterns of expected outcomes in response to management policies (catch restrictions, MPAs, ITQs) while preserving vessel heterogeneity. These simulations indicate that agent based modeling approaches hold much promise for simulating fisher behaviors and reducing implementation uncertainty. Additional processes affecting behavior, informed by surveys, are continually being added to the fisher behavior model. Further coupling of the fisher behavior model to a spatial ecosystem model will provide a fully integrated social, ecological, and economic model capable of performing management strategy evaluations to properly consider implementation uncertainty in fisheries management.

  16. Reducing uncertainty in geostatistical description with well testing pressure data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reynolds, A.C.; He, Nanqun [Univ. of Tulsa, OK (United States); Oliver, D.S. [Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, La Habra, CA (United States)

    1997-08-01

    Geostatistics has proven to be an effective tool for generating realizations of reservoir properties conditioned to static data, e.g., core and log data and geologic knowledge. Due to the lack of closely spaced data in the lateral directions, there will be significant variability in reservoir descriptions generated by geostatistical simulation, i.e., significant uncertainty in the reservoir descriptions. In past work, we have presented procedures based on inverse problem theory for generating reservoir descriptions (rock property fields) conditioned to pressure data and geostatistical information represented as prior means for log-permeability and porosity and variograms. Although we have shown that the incorporation of pressure data reduces the uncertainty below the level contained in the geostatistical model based only on static information (the prior model), our previous results assumed did not explicitly account for uncertainties in the prior means and the parameters defining the variogram model. In this work, we investigate how pressure data can help detect errors in the prior means. If errors in the prior means are large and are not taken into account, realizations conditioned to pressure data represent incorrect samples of the a posteriori probability density function for the rock property fields, whereas, if the uncertainty in the prior mean is incorporated properly into the model, one obtains realistic realizations of the rock property fields.

  17. Sensitivities and uncertainties of modeled ground temperatures in mountain environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Gubler

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Model evaluation is often performed at few locations due to the lack of spatially distributed data. Since the quantification of model sensitivities and uncertainties can be performed independently from ground truth measurements, these analyses are suitable to test the influence of environmental variability on model evaluation. In this study, the sensitivities and uncertainties of a physically based mountain permafrost model are quantified within an artificial topography. The setting consists of different elevations and exposures combined with six ground types characterized by porosity and hydraulic properties. The analyses are performed for a combination of all factors, that allows for quantification of the variability of model sensitivities and uncertainties within a whole modeling domain. We found that model sensitivities and uncertainties vary strongly depending on different input factors such as topography or different soil types. The analysis shows that model evaluation performed at single locations may not be representative for the whole modeling domain. For example, the sensitivity of modeled mean annual ground temperature to ground albedo ranges between 0.5 and 4 °C depending on elevation, aspect and the ground type. South-exposed inclined locations are more sensitive to changes in ground albedo than north-exposed slopes since they receive more solar radiation. The sensitivity to ground albedo increases with decreasing elevation due to shorter duration of the snow cover. The sensitivity in the hydraulic properties changes considerably for different ground types: rock or clay, for instance, are not sensitive to uncertainties in the hydraulic properties, while for gravel or peat, accurate estimates of the hydraulic properties significantly improve modeled ground temperatures. The discretization of ground, snow and time have an impact on modeled mean annual ground temperature (MAGT that cannot be neglected (more than 1 °C for several

  18. Reducing Uncertainty: Implementation of Heisenberg Principle to Measure Company Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Svirina

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper addresses the problem of uncertainty reduction in estimation of future company performance, which is a result of wide range of enterprise's intangible assets probable efficiency. To reduce this problem, the paper suggests to use quantum economy principles, i.e. implementation of Heisenberg principle to measure efficiency and potential of intangible assets of the company. It is proposed that for intangibles it is not possible to estimate both potential and efficiency at a certain time point. To provide a proof for these thesis, the data on resources potential and efficiency from mid-Russian companies was evaluated within deterministic approach, which did not allow to evaluate probability of achieving certain resource efficiency, and quantum approach, which allowed to estimate the central point around which the probable efficiency of resources in concentrated. Visualization of these approaches was performed by means of LabView software. It was proven that for tangible assets performance estimation a deterministic approach should be used; while for intangible assets the quantum approach allows better quality of future performance prediction. On the basis of these findings we proposed the holistic approach towards estimation of company resource efficiency in order to reduce uncertainty in modeling company performance.

  19. Uncertainty of Wheat Water Use: Simulated Patterns and Sensitivity to Temperature and CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cammarano, Davide; Roetter, Reimund P.; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Wallach, Daniel; Martre, Pierre; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Ruane, Alex C.; hide

    2016-01-01

    Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (Teff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50 of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.

  20. Ground surface temperature and continental heat gain: uncertainties from underground

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beltrami, Hugo; Matharoo, Gurpreet S; Smerdon, Jason E

    2015-01-01

    Temperature changes at the Earth's surface propagate and are recorded underground as perturbations to the equilibrium thermal regime associated with the heat flow from the Earth's interior. Borehole climatology is concerned with the analysis and interpretation of these downward propagating subsurface temperature anomalies in terms of surface climate. Proper determination of the steady-state geothermal regime is therefore crucial because it is the reference against which climate-induced subsurface temperature anomalies are estimated. Here, we examine the effects of data noise on the determination of the steady-state geothermal regime of the subsurface and the subsequent impact on estimates of ground surface temperature (GST) history and heat gain. We carry out a series of Monte Carlo experiments using 1000 Gaussian noise realizations and depth sections of 100 and 200 m as for steady-state estimates depth intervals, as well as a range of data sampling intervals from 10 m to 0.02 m. Results indicate that typical uncertainties for 50 year averages are on the order of ±0.02 K for the most recent 100 year period. These uncertainties grow with decreasing sampling intervals, reaching about ±0.1 K for a 10 m sampling interval under identical conditions and target period. Uncertainties increase for progressively older periods, reaching ±0.3 K at 500 years before present for a 10 m sampling interval. The uncertainties in reconstructed GST histories for the Northern Hemisphere for the most recent 50 year period can reach a maximum of ±0.5 K in some areas. We suggest that continuous logging should be the preferred approach when measuring geothermal data for climate reconstructions, and that for those using the International Heat Flow Commission database for borehole climatology, the steady-state thermal conditions should be estimated from boreholes as deep as possible and using a large fitting depth range (∼100 m). (letter)

  1. Prenatal temperature shocks reduce cooperation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duchoslav, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Climate change has not only led to a sustained rise in mean global temperature over the past decades, but also increased the frequency of extreme weather events. This paper explores the effect of temperature shocks in utero on later-life taste for cooperation. Using historical climate data combined

  2. Reducing uncertainties in volumetric image based deformable organ registration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, J.; Yan, D.

    2003-01-01

    Applying volumetric image feedback in radiotherapy requires image based deformable organ registration. The foundation of this registration is the ability of tracking subvolume displacement in organs of interest. Subvolume displacement can be calculated by applying biomechanics model and the finite element method to human organs manifested on the multiple volumetric images. The calculation accuracy, however, is highly dependent on the determination of the corresponding organ boundary points. Lacking sufficient information for such determination, uncertainties are inevitable--thus diminishing the registration accuracy. In this paper, a method of consuming energy minimization was developed to reduce these uncertainties. Starting from an initial selection of organ boundary point correspondence on volumetric image sets, the subvolume displacement and stress distribution of the whole organ are calculated and the consumed energy due to the subvolume displacements is computed accordingly. The corresponding positions of the initially selected boundary points are then iteratively optimized to minimize the consuming energy under geometry and stress constraints. In this study, a rectal wall delineated from patient CT image was artificially deformed using a computer simulation and utilized to test the optimization. Subvolume displacements calculated based on the optimized boundary point correspondence were compared to the true displacements, and the calculation accuracy was thereby evaluated. Results demonstrate that a significant improvement on the accuracy of the deformable organ registration can be achieved by applying the consuming energy minimization in the organ deformation calculation

  3. Unrealized Global Temperature Increase: Implications of Current Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Stephen E.

    2018-04-01

    Unrealized increase in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) may result from the climate system not being in steady state with forcings and/or from cessation of negative aerosol forcing that would result from decreases in emissions. An observation-constrained method is applied to infer the dependence of Earth's climate sensitivity on forcing by anthropogenic aerosols within the uncertainty on that forcing given by the Fifth (2013) Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Within these uncertainty ranges the increase in GMST due to temperature lag for future forcings held constant is slight (0.09-0.19 K over 20 years; 0.12-0.26 K over 100 years). However, the incremental increase in GMST that would result from a hypothetical abrupt cessation of sources of aerosols could be quite large but is highly uncertain, 0.1-1.3 K over 20 years. Decrease in CO2 abundance and forcing following abrupt cessation of emissions would offset these increases in GMST over 100 years by as little as 0.09 K to as much as 0.8 K. The uncertainties quantified here greatly limit confidence in projections of change in GMST that would result from any strategy for future reduction of emissions.

  4. Reducing the uncertainty in robotic machining by modal analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberdi, Iñigo; Pelegay, Jose Angel; Arrazola, Pedro Jose; Ørskov, Klaus Bonde

    2017-10-01

    The use of industrial robots for machining could lead to high cost and energy savings for the manufacturing industry. Machining robots offer several advantages respect to CNC machines such as flexibility, wide working space, adaptability and relatively low cost. However, there are some drawbacks that are preventing a widespread adoption of robotic solutions namely lower stiffness, vibration/chatter problems and lower accuracy and repeatability. Normally due to these issues conservative cutting parameters are chosen, resulting in a low material removal rate (MRR). In this article, an example of a modal analysis of a robot is presented. For that purpose the Tap-testing technology is introduced, which aims at maximizing productivity, reducing the uncertainty in the selection of cutting parameters and offering a stable process free from chatter vibrations.

  5. CFCI3 (CFC-11): UV Absorption Spectrum Temperature Dependence Measurements and the Impact on Atmospheric Lifetime and Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcgillen, Max R.; Fleming, Eric L.; Jackman, Charles H.; Burkholder, James B.

    2014-01-01

    CFCl3 (CFC-11) is both an atmospheric ozone-depleting and potent greenhouse gas that is removed primarily via stratospheric UV photolysis. Uncertainty in the temperature dependence of its UV absorption spectrum is a significant contributing factor to the overall uncertainty in its global lifetime and, thus, model calculations of stratospheric ozone recovery and climate change. In this work, the CFC-11 UV absorption spectrum was measured over a range of wavelength (184.95 - 230 nm) and temperature (216 - 296 K). We report a spectrum temperature dependence that is less than currently recommended for use in atmospheric models. The impact on its atmospheric lifetime was quantified using a 2-D model and the spectrum parameterization developed in this work. The obtained global annually averaged lifetime was 58.1 +- 0.7 years (2 sigma uncertainty due solely to the spectrum uncertainty). The lifetime is slightly reduced and the uncertainty significantly reduced from that obtained using current spectrum recommendations

  6. Trends and associated uncertainty in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, A. N.; Moyer, E. J.; Stein, M.

    2016-12-01

    Physical models suggest that the Earth's mean temperature warms in response to changing CO2 concentrations (and hence increased radiative forcing); given physical uncertainties in this relationship, the historical temperature record is a source of empirical information about global warming. A persistent thread in many analyses of the historical temperature record, however, is the reliance on methods that appear to deemphasize both physical and statistical assumptions. Examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for natural variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. We show here that methods that deemphasize assumptions can limit the scope of analysis and can lead to misleading inferences, particularly in the setting considered where the data record is relatively short and the scale of temporal correlation is relatively long. A proposed model that is simple but physically informed provides a more reliable estimate of trends and allows a broader array of questions to be addressed. In accounting for uncertainty, we also illustrate how parametric statistical models that are attuned to the important characteristics of natural variability can be more reliable than ostensibly more flexible approaches.

  7. Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 2. Biases and homogenization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, J. J.; Rayner, N. A.; Smith, R. O.; Parker, D. E.; Saunby, M.

    2011-07-01

    Changes in instrumentation and data availability have caused time-varying biases in estimates of global and regional average sea surface temperature. The size of the biases arising from these changes are estimated and their uncertainties evaluated. The estimated biases and their associated uncertainties are largest during the period immediately following the Second World War, reflecting the rapid and incompletely documented changes in shipping and data availability at the time. Adjustments have been applied to reduce these effects in gridded data sets of sea surface temperature and the results are presented as a set of interchangeable realizations. Uncertainties of estimated trends in global and regional average sea surface temperature due to bias adjustments since the Second World War are found to be larger than uncertainties arising from the choice of analysis technique, indicating that this is an important source of uncertainty in analyses of historical sea surface temperatures. Despite this, trends over the twentieth century remain qualitatively consistent.

  8. How incorporating more data reduces uncertainty in recovery predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campozana, F.P.; Lake, L.W.; Sepehrnoori, K. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    1997-08-01

    From the discovery to the abandonment of a petroleum reservoir, there are many decisions that involve economic risks because of uncertainty in the production forecast. This uncertainty may be quantified by performing stochastic reservoir modeling (SRM); however, it is not practical to apply SRM every time the model is updated to account for new data. This paper suggests a novel procedure to estimate reservoir uncertainty (and its reduction) as a function of the amount and type of data used in the reservoir modeling. Two types of data are analyzed: conditioning data and well-test data. However, the same procedure can be applied to any other data type. Three performance parameters are suggested to quantify uncertainty. SRM is performed for the following typical stages: discovery, primary production, secondary production, and infill drilling. From those results, a set of curves is generated that can be used to estimate (1) the uncertainty for any other situation and (2) the uncertainty reduction caused by the introduction of new wells (with and without well-test data) into the description.

  9. MRS role in reducing technical uncertainties in geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramspott, L.D.

    1990-06-01

    A high-level nuclear waste repository has inherent technical uncertainty due to its first-of-a-kind nature and the unprecedented time over which it must function. Three possible technical modifications to the currently planned US high-level nuclear waste system are reviewed in this paper. These modifications would be facilitated by inclusion of a monitored retrievable storage (MRS) in the system. The modifications are (1) an underground MRS at Yucca Mountain, (2) a phased repository, and (3) a ''cold'' repository. These modifications are intended to enhance scientific confidence that a repository system would function satisfactorily despite technical uncertainty. 12 refs

  10. Temperature response functions introduce high uncertainty in modelled carbon stocks in cold temperature regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portner, H.; Wolf, A.; Bugmann, H.

    2009-04-01

    Many biogeochemical models have been applied to study the response of the carbon cycle to changes in climate, whereby the process of carbon uptake (photosynthesis) has usually gained more attention than the equally important process of carbon release by respiration. The decomposition of soil organic matter is driven by a combination of factors with a prominent one being soil temperature [Berg and Laskowski(2005)]. One uncertainty concerns the response function used to describe the sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition to temperature. This relationship is often described by one out of a set of similar exponential functions, but it has not been investigated how uncertainties in the choice of the response function influence the long term predictions of biogeochemical models. We built upon the well-established LPJ-GUESS model [Smith et al.(2001)]. We tested five candidate functions and calibrated them against eight datasets from different Ameriflux and CarboEuropeIP sites [Hibbard et al.(2006)]. We used a simple Exponential function with a constant Q10, the Arrhenius function, the Gaussian function [Tuomi et al.(2008), O'Connell(1990)], the Van't Hoff function [Van't Hoff(1901)] and the Lloyd&Taylor function [Lloyd and Taylor(1994)]. We assessed the impact of uncertainty in model formulation of temperature response on estimates of present and future long-term carbon storage in ecosystems and hence on the CO2 feedback potential to the atmosphere. We specifically investigated the relative importance of model formulation and the error introduced by using different data sets for the parameterization. Our results suggested that the Exponential and Arrhenius functions are inappropriate, as they overestimated the respiration rates at lower temperatures. The Gaussian, Van't Hoff and Lloyd&Taylor functions all fit the observed data better, whereby the functions of Gaussian and Van't Hoff underestimated the response at higher temperatures. We suggest, that the

  11. Reducing uncertainty based on model fitness: Application to a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A weakness of global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methodologies is the often subjective definition of prior parameter probability distributions, especially ... The reservoir representing the central part of the wetland, where flood waters separate into several independent distributaries, is a keystone area within the model.

  12. One Strategy for Reducing Uncertainty in Climate Change Communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romm, J.

    2011-12-01

    Future impacts of climate change are invariably presented with a very wide range of impacts reflecting two different sets of uncertainties. The first concerns our uncertainty about precisely how much greenhouse gas emissions humanity will emit into the atmosphere. The second concerns our uncertainty about precisely what impact those emissions will have on the climate. By failing to distinguish between these two types of uncertainties, climate scientists have not clearly explained to the public and policymakers what the scientific literature suggests is likely to happen if we don't substantially alter our current emissions path. Indeed, much of climate communications has been built around describing the range of impacts from emissions paths that are increasingly implausible given political and technological constraints, such as a stabilization at 450 or 550 parts per million atmospheric of carbon dioxide. For the past decade, human emissions of greenhouse gases have trended near the worst-case scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, emissions paths that reach 800 ppm or even 1000 ppm. The current policies of the two biggest emitters, the United States and China, coupled with the ongoing failure of international negotiations to come to an agreement on restricting emissions, suggests that recent trends will continue for the foreseeable future. This in turn suggests that greater clarity in climate change communications could be achieved by more clearly explaining to the public what the scientific literature suggests the range of impacts are for our current high emissions path. This also suggests that more focus should be given in the scientific literature to better constraining the range of impacts from the high emissions scenarios.

  13. Uncertainty in temperature-based determination of time of death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiser, Martin; Erdmann, Bodo; Schenkl, Sebastian; Muggenthaler, Holger; Hubig, Michael; Mall, Gita; Zachow, Stefan

    2018-03-01

    Temperature-based estimation of time of death (ToD) can be performed either with the help of simple phenomenological models of corpse cooling or with detailed mechanistic (thermodynamic) heat transfer models. The latter are much more complex, but allow a higher accuracy of ToD estimation as in principle all relevant cooling mechanisms can be taken into account. The potentially higher accuracy depends on the accuracy of tissue and environmental parameters as well as on the geometric resolution. We investigate the impact of parameter variations and geometry representation on the estimated ToD. For this, numerical simulation of analytic heat transport models is performed on a highly detailed 3D corpse model, that has been segmented and geometrically reconstructed from a computed tomography (CT) data set, differentiating various organs and tissue types. From that and prior information available on thermal parameters and their variability, we identify the most crucial parameters to measure or estimate, and obtain an a priori uncertainty quantification for the ToD.

  14. Explaining Delusions: Reducing Uncertainty Through Basic and Computational Neuroscience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feeney, Erin J; Groman, Stephanie M; Taylor, Jane R; Corlett, Philip R

    2017-03-01

    Delusions, the fixed false beliefs characteristic of psychotic illness, have long defied understanding despite their response to pharmacological treatments (e.g., D2 receptor antagonists). However, it can be challenging to discern what makes beliefs delusional compared with other unusual or erroneous beliefs. We suggest mapping the putative biology to clinical phenomenology with a cognitive psychology of belief, culminating in a teleological approach to beliefs and brain function supported by animal and computational models. We argue that organisms strive to minimize uncertainty about their future states by forming and maintaining a set of beliefs (about the organism and the world) that are robust, but flexible. If uncertainty is generated endogenously, beliefs begin to depart from consensual reality and can manifest into delusions. Central to this scheme is the notion that formal associative learning theory can provide an explanation for the development and persistence of delusions. Beliefs, in animals and humans, may be associations between representations (e.g., of cause and effect) that are formed by minimizing uncertainty via new learning and attentional allocation. Animal research has equipped us with a deep mechanistic basis of these processes, which is now being applied to delusions. This work offers the exciting possibility of completing revolutions of translation, from the bedside to the bench and back again. The more we learn about animal beliefs, the more we may be able to apply to human beliefs and their aberrations, enabling a deeper mechanistic understanding. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Reducing the uncertainty in the fidelity of seismic imaging results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, H. W.; Zou, Z.

    2017-12-01

    A key aspect in geoscientific inversion is quantifying the quality of the results. In seismic imaging, we must quantify the uncertainty of every imaging result based on field data, because data noise and methodology limitations may produce artifacts. Detection of artifacts is therefore an important aspect in uncertainty quantification in geoscientific inversion. Quantifying the uncertainty of seismic imaging solutions means assessing their fidelity, which defines the truthfulness of the imaged targets in terms of their resolution, position error and artifact. Key challenges to achieving the fidelity of seismic imaging include: (1) Difficulty to tell signal from artifact and noise; (2) Limitations in signal-to-noise ratio and seismic illumination; and (3) The multi-scale nature of the data space and model space. Most seismic imaging studies of the Earth's crust and mantle have employed inversion or modeling approaches. Though they are in opposite directions of mapping between the data space and model space, both inversion and modeling seek the best model to minimize the misfit in the data space, which unfortunately is not the output space. The fact that the selection and uncertainty of the output model are not judged in the output space has exacerbated the nonuniqueness problem for inversion and modeling. In contrast, the practice in exploration seismology has long established a two-fold approach of seismic imaging: Using velocity modeling building to establish the long-wavelength reference velocity models, and using seismic migration to map the short-wavelength reflectivity structures. Most interestingly, seismic migration maps the data into an output space called imaging space, where the output reflection images of the subsurface are formed based on an imaging condition. A good example is the reverse time migration, which seeks the reflectivity image as the best fit in the image space between the extrapolation of time-reversed waveform data and the prediction

  16. Reducing uncertainty in nitrogen budgets for African livestock systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rufino, M C; Brandt, P; Herrero, M; Butterbach-Bahl, K

    2014-01-01

    Livestock is poorly represented in N budgets for the African continent although some studies have examined livestock-related N flows at different levels. Livestock plays an important role in N cycling and therefore on N budgets including livestock-related flows. This study reviews the literature on N budgets for Africa to identify factors contributing to uncertainties. Livestock densities are usually modelled because of the lack of observational spatial data. Even though feed availability and quality varies across seasons, most studies use constant livestock excretion rates, and excreta are usually assumed to be uniformly distributed onto the land. Major uncertainties originate in the fraction of manure managed, and emission factors which may not reflect the situation of Africa. N budgets use coarse assumptions on production, availability, and use of crop residues as livestock feed. No flows between croplands–livestock and rangelands reflect the lack of data. Joint efforts are needed for spatial data collection of livestock data, crowdsourcing appears to be a promising option. The focus of the assessment of N budgets must go beyond croplands to include livestock and crop–livestock flows. We propose a nested systems definition of livestock systems to link local, regional level, and continental level and to increase the usefulness of point measurements of N losses. Scientists working at all levels should generate data to calibrate process-based models. Measurements in the field should not only concentrate on greenhouse gas emissions, but need to include crop and livestock production measurements, soil stock changes and other N loss pathways such as leaching, run-off and volatilization to assess management practices and trade-offs. Compared to the research done in other continents on N flows in livestock systems, there are few data for Africa, and therefore concerted effort will be needed to generate sufficient data for modelling. (paper)

  17. Combining observations and models to reduce uncertainty in the cloud response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, J. R.; Myers, T.; Chellappan, S.

    2017-12-01

    Currently there is large uncertainty on how subtropical low-level clouds will respond to global warming and whether they will act as a positive feedback or negative feedback. Global climate models substantially agree on what changes in atmospheric structure and circulation will occur with global warming but greatly disagree over how clouds will respond to these changes in structure and circulation. An examination of models with the most realistic simulations of low-level cloudiness indicates that the model cloud response to atmospheric changes associated with global warming is quantitatively similar to the model cloud response to atmospheric changes at interannual time scales. For these models, the cloud response to global warming predicted by multilinear regression using coefficients derived from interannual time scales is quantitatively similar to the cloud response to global warming directly simulated by the model. Since there is a large spread among cloud response coefficients even among models with the most realistic cloud simulations, substitution of coefficients derived from satellite observations reduces the uncertainty range of the low-level cloud feedback. Increased sea surface temperature associated with global warming acts to reduce low-level cloudiness, which is partially offset by increased lower tropospheric stratification that acts to enhance low-level cloudiness. Changes in free-tropospheric relative humidity, subsidence, and horizontal advection have only a small impact on low-level cloud. The net reduction in subtropical low-level cloudiness increases absorption of solar radiation by the climate system, thus resulting in a weak positive feedback.

  18. Reducing the uncertainty of the primary damage production in Fe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjorkas, C.; Nordlund, K.

    2007-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: One of the key questions for understanding neutron irradiation damage buildup in fission and fusion reactor steels is knowing the primary damage state produced by neutron-induced atomic recoils in Fe. Supporting this is our recent study revealing that the initial damage in Fe 0.9 Cr 0.1 is essentially the same as in pure Fe [1]. In spite of decades of study, the question of what the amount and distribution of defects in Fe is, has remained highly unclear. Different computer simulations modules have given a good qualitative understanding of the cascade development [1,2]. However, quantitative differences of more than a factor of three have remained in the predicted clustered defect production numbers [2]. The disagreements between the potentials pose problems for finding a reliable predictive model for the behavior of Fe under irradiation. In this study we analyze the initial damage as predicted by three recent interatomic potentials for Fe. These are well suited for a comparison because they have very different physical motivations and functional forms, but are comparable in overall quality and in particular reproduce the energetics of interstitials in different configurations well. The potentials are those by Ackland and Mendelev et al. (AMS) [3], the 'magnetic' potential by Dudarev and Derlet (DD) [4] and the Tersoff-like analytical potential by Mueller, Erhart and Albe (MEA) [5]. The DD and MEA potentials were modified by us to describe high-energy repulsive interactions well. All potentials were then used in recoil collision cascade simulations carried out and analyzed in exactly the same manner for all potentials. Analysis of the resulting damage showed a much smaller uncertainty regarding the damage production than that of previous potentials. The total defect production numbers essentially agree within the statistical uncertainty for the three potentials. Some differences remains regarding the defect clustered fractions, but

  19. Impact of AMS-02 Measurements on Reducing GCR Model Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaba, T. C.; O'Neill, P. M.; Golge, S.; Norbury, J. W.

    2015-01-01

    For vehicle design, shield optimization, mission planning, and astronaut risk assessment, the exposure from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) poses a significant and complex problem both in low Earth orbit and in deep space. To address this problem, various computational tools have been developed to quantify the exposure and risk in a wide range of scenarios. Generally, the tool used to describe the ambient GCR environment provides the input into subsequent computational tools and is therefore a critical component of end-to-end procedures. Over the past few years, several researchers have independently and very carefully compared some of the widely used GCR models to more rigorously characterize model differences and quantify uncertainties. All of the GCR models studied rely heavily on calibrating to available near-Earth measurements of GCR particle energy spectra, typically over restricted energy regions and short time periods. In this work, we first review recent sensitivity studies quantifying the ions and energies in the ambient GCR environment of greatest importance to exposure quantities behind shielding. Currently available measurements used to calibrate and validate GCR models are also summarized within this context. It is shown that the AMS-II measurements will fill a critically important gap in the measurement database. The emergence of AMS-II measurements also provides a unique opportunity to validate existing models against measurements that were not used to calibrate free parameters in the empirical descriptions. Discussion is given regarding rigorous approaches to implement the independent validation efforts, followed by recalibration of empirical parameters.

  20. Synchronous Sounds Enhance Visual Sensitivity without Reducing Target Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chuan Chen

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available We examined the crossmodal effect of the presentation of a simultaneous sound on visual detection and discrimination sensitivity using the equivalent noise paradigm (Dosher & Lu, 1998. In each trial, a tilted Gabor patch was presented in either the first or second of two intervals consisting of dynamic 2D white noise with one of seven possible contrast levels. The results revealed that the sensitivity of participants' visual detection and discrimination performance were both enhanced by the presentation of a simultaneous sound, though only close to the noise level at which participants' target contrast thresholds started to increase with the increasing noise contrast. A further analysis of the psychometric function at this noise level revealed that the increase in sensitivity could not be explained by the reduction of participants' uncertainty regarding the onset time of the visual target. We suggest that this crossmodal facilitatory effect may be accounted for by perceptual enhancement elicited by a simultaneously-presented sound, and that the crossmodal facilitation was easier to observe when the visual system encountered a level of noise that happened to be close to the level of internal noise embedded within the system.

  1. Proposed standardized definitions for vertical resolution and uncertainty in the NDACC lidar ozone and temperature algorithms - Part 3: Temperature uncertainty budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblanc, Thierry; Sica, Robert J.; van Gijsel, Joanna A. E.; Haefele, Alexander; Payen, Guillaume; Liberti, Gianluigi

    2016-08-01

    A standardized approach for the definition, propagation, and reporting of uncertainty in the temperature lidar data products contributing to the Network for the Detection for Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) database is proposed. One important aspect of the proposed approach is the ability to propagate all independent uncertainty components in parallel through the data processing chain. The individual uncertainty components are then combined together at the very last stage of processing to form the temperature combined standard uncertainty. The identified uncertainty sources comprise major components such as signal detection, saturation correction, background noise extraction, temperature tie-on at the top of the profile, and absorption by ozone if working in the visible spectrum, as well as other components such as molecular extinction, the acceleration of gravity, and the molecular mass of air, whose magnitudes depend on the instrument, data processing algorithm, and altitude range of interest. The expression of the individual uncertainty components and their step-by-step propagation through the temperature data processing chain are thoroughly estimated, taking into account the effect of vertical filtering and the merging of multiple channels. All sources of uncertainty except detection noise imply correlated terms in the vertical dimension, which means that covariance terms must be taken into account when vertical filtering is applied and when temperature is integrated from the top of the profile. Quantitatively, the uncertainty budget is presented in a generic form (i.e., as a function of instrument performance and wavelength), so that any NDACC temperature lidar investigator can easily estimate the expected impact of individual uncertainty components in the case of their own instrument. Using this standardized approach, an example of uncertainty budget is provided for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) lidar at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawai'i, which is

  2. Uncertainties

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    To reflect this uncertainty in the climate scenarios, the use of AOGCMs that explicitly simulate the carbon cycle and chemistry of all the substances are needed. The Hadley Centre has developed a version of the climate model that allows the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle and its feedback into climate, to be ...

  3. Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, T.A. da

    1988-01-01

    The comparison between the uncertainty method recommended by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the and the International Weight and Measure Commitee (CIPM) are showed, for the calibration of clinical dosimeters in the secondary standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL). (C.G.C.) [pt

  4. Uncertainty Aware Structural Topology Optimization Via a Stochastic Reduced Order Model Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilo, Miguel A.; Warner, James E.

    2017-01-01

    This work presents a stochastic reduced order modeling strategy for the quantification and propagation of uncertainties in topology optimization. Uncertainty aware optimization problems can be computationally complex due to the substantial number of model evaluations that are necessary to accurately quantify and propagate uncertainties. This computational complexity is greatly magnified if a high-fidelity, physics-based numerical model is used for the topology optimization calculations. Stochastic reduced order model (SROM) methods are applied here to effectively 1) alleviate the prohibitive computational cost associated with an uncertainty aware topology optimization problem; and 2) quantify and propagate the inherent uncertainties due to design imperfections. A generic SROM framework that transforms the uncertainty aware, stochastic topology optimization problem into a deterministic optimization problem that relies only on independent calls to a deterministic numerical model is presented. This approach facilitates the use of existing optimization and modeling tools to accurately solve the uncertainty aware topology optimization problems in a fraction of the computational demand required by Monte Carlo methods. Finally, an example in structural topology optimization is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed uncertainty aware structural topology optimization approach.

  5. Quantifying Uncertainty in Satellite-Retrieved Land Surface Temperature from Cloud Detection Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire E. Bulgin

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Clouds remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in remote sensing of surface temperature in the infrared, but this uncertainty has not generally been quantified. We present a new approach to do so, applied here to the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR. We use an ensemble of cloud masks based on independent methodologies to investigate the magnitude of cloud detection uncertainties in area-average Land Surface Temperature (LST retrieval. We find that at a grid resolution of 625 km 2 (commensurate with a 0.25 ∘ grid size at the tropics, cloud detection uncertainties are positively correlated with cloud-cover fraction in the cell and are larger during the day than at night. Daytime cloud detection uncertainties range between 2.5 K for clear-sky fractions of 10–20% and 1.03 K for clear-sky fractions of 90–100%. Corresponding night-time uncertainties are 1.6 K and 0.38 K, respectively. Cloud detection uncertainty shows a weaker positive correlation with the number of biomes present within a grid cell, used as a measure of heterogeneity in the background against which the cloud detection must operate (e.g., surface temperature, emissivity and reflectance. Uncertainty due to cloud detection errors is strongly dependent on the dominant land cover classification. We find cloud detection uncertainties of a magnitude of 1.95 K over permanent snow and ice, 1.2 K over open forest, 0.9–1 K over bare soils and 0.09 K over mosaic cropland, for a standardised clear-sky fraction of 74.2%. As the uncertainties arising from cloud detection errors are of a significant magnitude for many surface types and spatially heterogeneous where land classification varies rapidly, LST data producers are encouraged to quantify cloud-related uncertainties in gridded products.

  6. Estimation of sampling error uncertainties in observed surface air temperature change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Wei; Shen, Samuel S. P.; Weithmann, Alexander; Wang, Huijun

    2017-08-01

    This study examines the sampling error uncertainties in the monthly surface air temperature (SAT) change in China over recent decades, focusing on the uncertainties of gridded data, national averages, and linear trends. Results indicate that large sampling error variances appear at the station-sparse area of northern and western China with the maximum value exceeding 2.0 K2 while small sampling error variances are found at the station-dense area of southern and eastern China with most grid values being less than 0.05 K2. In general, the negative temperature existed in each month prior to the 1980s, and a warming in temperature began thereafter, which accelerated in the early and mid-1990s. The increasing trend in the SAT series was observed for each month of the year with the largest temperature increase and highest uncertainty of 0.51 ± 0.29 K (10 year)-1 occurring in February and the weakest trend and smallest uncertainty of 0.13 ± 0.07 K (10 year)-1 in August. The sampling error uncertainties in the national average annual mean SAT series are not sufficiently large to alter the conclusion of the persistent warming in China. In addition, the sampling error uncertainties in the SAT series show a clear variation compared with other uncertainty estimation methods, which is a plausible reason for the inconsistent variations between our estimate and other studies during this period.

  7. The Effect of Uncertainties on the Operating Temperature of U-Mo/Al Dispersion Fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sweidana, Faris B.; Mistarihia, Qusai M.; Ryu Ho Jin [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yim, Jeong Sik [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    In this study, uncertainty and combined uncertainty studies have been carried out to evaluate the uncertainty of the parameters affecting the operational temperature of U-Mo/Al fuel. The uncertainties related to the thermal conductivity of fuel meat, which consists of the effects of thermal diffusivity, density and specific heat capacity, the interaction layer (IL) that forms between the dispersed fuel and the matrix, fuel plate dimensions, heat flux, heat transfer coefficient and the outer cladding temperature were considered. As the development of low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuels has been pursued for research reactors to replace the use of highly-enriched uranium (HEU) for the improvement of proliferation resistance of fuels and fuel cycle, U-Mo particles dispersed in an Al matrix (UMo/Al) is a promising fuel for conversion of the research reactors that currently use HEU fuels to LEUfueled reactors due to its high density and good irradiation stability. Several models have been developed for the estimation of the thermal conductivity of U–Mo fuel, mainly based on the best fit of the very few measured data without providing uncertainty ranges. The purpose of this study is to provide a reasonable estimation of the upper bounds and lower bounds of fuel temperatures with burnup through the evaluation of the uncertainties in the thermal conductivity of irradiated U-Mo/Al dispersion fuel. The combined uncertainty study using RSS method evaluated the effect of applying all the uncertainty values of all the parameters on the operational temperature of U-Mo/Al fuel. The overall influence on the value of the operational temperature is 16.58 .deg. C at the beginning of life and it increases as the burnup increases to reach 18.74 .deg. C at a fuel meat fission density of 3.50E+21 fission/cm{sup 3}. Further studies are needed to evaluate the behavior more accurately by including other parameters uncertainties such as the interaction layer thermal conductivity.

  8. Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Correlated Multi-Area Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Yannan; Hou, Zhangshuan; Meng, Da; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu

    2016-07-17

    In this study, we represent and reduce the uncertainties in short-term electric load forecasting by integrating time series analysis tools including ARIMA modeling, sequential Gaussian simulation, and principal component analysis. The approaches are mainly focusing on maintaining the inter-dependency between multiple geographically related areas. These approaches are applied onto cross-correlated load time series as well as their forecast errors. Multiple short-term prediction realizations are then generated from the reduced uncertainty ranges, which are useful for power system risk analyses.

  9. An audit of the global carbon budget: identifying and reducing sources of uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballantyne, A. P.; Tans, P. P.; Marland, G.; Stocker, B. D.

    2012-12-01

    Uncertainties in our carbon accounting practices may limit our ability to objectively verify emission reductions on regional scales. Furthermore uncertainties in the global C budget must be reduced to benchmark Earth System Models that incorporate carbon-climate interactions. Here we present an audit of the global C budget where we try to identify sources of uncertainty for major terms in the global C budget. The atmospheric growth rate of CO2 has increased significantly over the last 50 years, while the uncertainty in calculating the global atmospheric growth rate has been reduced from 0.4 ppm/yr to 0.2 ppm/yr (95% confidence). Although we have greatly reduced global CO2 growth rate uncertainties, there remain regions, such as the Southern Hemisphere, Tropics and Arctic, where changes in regional sources/sinks will remain difficult to detect without additional observations. Increases in fossil fuel (FF) emissions are the primary factor driving the increase in global CO2 growth rate; however, our confidence in FF emission estimates has actually gone down. Based on a comparison of multiple estimates, FF emissions have increased from 2.45 ± 0.12 PgC/yr in 1959 to 9.40 ± 0.66 PgC/yr in 2010. Major sources of increasing FF emission uncertainty are increased emissions from emerging economies, such as China and India, as well as subtle differences in accounting practices. Lastly, we evaluate emission estimates from Land Use Change (LUC). Although relative errors in emission estimates from LUC are quite high (2 sigma ~ 50%), LUC emissions have remained fairly constant in recent decades. We evaluate the three commonly used approaches to estimating LUC emissions- Bookkeeping, Satellite Imagery, and Model Simulations- to identify their main sources of error and their ability to detect net emissions from LUC.; Uncertainties in Fossil Fuel Emissions over the last 50 years.

  10. Characterizing Uncertainty In Electrical Resistivity Tomography Images Due To Subzero Temperature Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herring, T.; Cey, E. E.; Pidlisecky, A.

    2017-12-01

    Time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is used to image changes in subsurface electrical conductivity (EC), e.g. due to a saline contaminant plume. Temperature variation also produces an EC response, which interferes with the signal of interest. Temperature compensation requires the temperature distribution and the relationship between EC and temperature, but this relationship at subzero temperatures is not well defined. The goal of this study is to examine how uncertainty in the subzero EC/temperature relationship manifests in temperature corrected ERT images, especially with respect to relevant plume parameters (location, contaminant mass, etc.). First, a lab experiment was performed to determine the EC of fine-grained glass beads over a range of temperatures (-20° to 20° C) and saturations. The measured EC/temperature relationship was then used to add temperature effects to a hypothetical EC model of a conductive plume. Forward simulations yielded synthetic field data to which temperature corrections were applied. Varying the temperature/EC relationship used in the temperature correction and comparing the temperature corrected ERT results to the synthetic model enabled a quantitative analysis of the error of plume parameters associated with temperature variability. Modeling possible scenarios in this way helps to establish the feasibility of different time-lapse ERT applications by quantifying the uncertainty associated with parameter(s) of interest.

  11. Estabilishing requirements for the next generation of pressurized water reactors--reducing the uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernock, W.P.; Corcoran, W.R.; Rasin, W.H.; Stahlkopf, K.E.

    1987-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute is managing a major effort to establish requirements for the next generation of U.S. light water reactors. This effort is the vital first step in preserving the viability of the nuclear option to contribute to meet U.S. national electric power capacity needs in the next century. Combustion Engineering, Inc. and Duke Power Company formed a team to participate in the EPRI program which is guided by a Utility Steering committee consisting of experienced utility technical executives. A major thrust of the program is to reduce the uncertainties which would be faced by the utility executives in choosing the nuclear option. The uncertainties to be reduced include those related to safety, economic, operational, and regulatory aspects of advanced light water reactors. This paper overviews the Requirements Document program as it relates to the U.S. Advanced Light Water Reactor (ALWR) effort in reducing these uncertainties and reports the status of efforts to establish requirements for the next generation of pressurized water reactors. It concentrates on progress made in reducing the uncertainties which would deter selection of the nuclear option for contributing to U.S. national electric power capacity needs in the next century and updates previous reports in the same area. (author)

  12. Using performance indicators to reduce cost uncertainty of China's CO2 mitigation goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Yuan

    2013-01-01

    Goals on absolute emissions and intensity play key roles in CO 2 mitigation. However, like cap-and-trade policies with price uncertainty, they suffer from significant uncertainty in abatement costs. This article examines whether an indicator could be established to complement CO 2 mitigation goals and help reduce cost uncertainty with a particular focus on China. Performance indicators on CO 2 emissions per unit of energy consumption could satisfy three criteria: compared with the mitigation goals, (i) they are more closely associated with active mitigation efforts and (ii) their baselines have more stable projections from historical trajectories. (iii) Their abatement costs are generally higher than other mitigation methods, particularly energy efficiency and conservation. Performance indicators could be used in the following way: if a CO 2 goal on absolute emissions or intensity is attained, the performance indicator should still reach a lower threshold as a cost floor. If the goal cannot be attained, an upper performance threshold should be achieved as a cost ceiling. The narrower cost uncertainty may encourage wider and greater mitigation efforts. - Highlights: ► CO 2 emissions per unit of energy consumption could act as performance indicators. ► Performance indicators are more closely related to active mitigation activities. ► Performance indicators have more stable historical trajectories. ► Abatement costs are higher for performance indicators than for other activities. ► Performance thresholds could reduce the cost uncertainty of CO 2 mitigation goals.

  13. Quantifying Surface Energy Flux Estimation Uncertainty Using Land Surface Temperature Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, A. N.; Hunsaker, D.; Thorp, K.; Bronson, K. F.

    2015-12-01

    Remote sensing with thermal infrared is widely recognized as good way to estimate surface heat fluxes, map crop water use, and detect water-stressed vegetation. When combined with net radiation and soil heat flux data, observations of sensible heat fluxes derived from surface temperatures (LST) are indicative of instantaneous evapotranspiration (ET). There are, however, substantial reasons LST data may not provide the best way to estimate of ET. For example, it is well known that observations and models of LST, air temperature, or estimates of transport resistances may be so inaccurate that physically based model nevertheless yield non-meaningful results. Furthermore, using visible and near infrared remote sensing observations collected at the same time as LST often yield physically plausible results because they are constrained by less dynamic surface conditions such as green fractional cover. Although sensitivity studies exist that help identify likely sources of error and uncertainty, ET studies typically do not provide a way to assess the relative importance of modeling ET with and without LST inputs. To better quantify model benefits and degradations due to LST observational inaccuracies, a Bayesian uncertainty study was undertaken using data collected in remote sensing experiments at Maricopa, Arizona. Visible, near infrared and thermal infrared data were obtained from an airborne platform. The prior probability distribution of ET estimates were modeled using fractional cover, local weather data and a Penman-Monteith mode, while the likelihood of LST data was modeled from a two-source energy balance model. Thus the posterior probabilities of ET represented the value added by using LST data. Results from an ET study over cotton grown in 2014 and 2015 showed significantly reduced ET confidence intervals when LST data were incorporated.

  14. Rising Temperatures Reduce Global Wheat Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.; hide

    2015-01-01

    Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32? degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degree C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

  15. Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the U.S. Capsules in the AGR-2 Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lybeck, Nancy [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Einerson, Jeffrey J. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pham, Binh T. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Hawkes, Grant L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-03-01

    A series of Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) irradiation experiments are being conducted within the Advanced Reactor Technology (ART) Fuel Development and Qualification Program. The main objectives of the fuel experimental campaign are to provide the necessary data on fuel performance to support fuel process development, qualify a fuel design and fabrication process for normal operation and accident conditions, and support development and validation of fuel performance and fission product transport models and codes (PLN-3636). The AGR-2 test was inserted in the B-12 position in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in June 2010 and successfully completed irradiation in October 2013, resulting in irradiation of the TRISO fuel for 559.2 effective full power days (EFPDs) during approximately 3.3 calendar years. The AGR-2 data, including the irradiation data and calculated results, were qualified and stored in the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS) (Pham and Einerson 2014). To support the U.S. TRISO fuel performance assessment and to provide data for validation of fuel performance and fission product transport models and codes, the daily as-run thermal analysis has been performed separately on each of four AGR-2 U.S. capsules for the entire irradiation as discussed in (Hawkes 2014). The ABAQUS code’s finite element-based thermal model predicts the daily average volume-average fuel temperature and peak fuel temperature in each capsule. This thermal model involves complex physical mechanisms (e.g., graphite holder and fuel compact shrinkage) and properties (e.g., conductivity and density). Therefore, the thermal model predictions are affected by uncertainty in input parameters and by incomplete knowledge of the underlying physics leading to modeling assumptions. Therefore, alongside with the deterministic predictions from a set of input thermal conditions, information about prediction uncertainty is instrumental for the ART

  16. Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ando, Amy W; Mallory, Mindy L

    2012-04-24

    Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) as an example. This approach finds the allocations of conservation activity among subregions of the planning area that maximize the expected conservation returns for a given level of uncertainty or minimize uncertainty for a given expected level of returns. We find that using MPT instead of simple diversification in the PPR can achieve a value of the conservation objective per dollar spent that is 15% higher for the same level of risk. MPT-based portfolios can also have 21% less uncertainty over benefits or 6% greater expected benefits than the current portfolio of PPR conservation. Total benefits from conservation investment are higher if returns are defined in terms of benefit-cost ratios rather than benefits alone. MPT-guided diversification can work to reduce the climate-change-induced uncertainty of future ecosystem-service benefits from many land policy and investment initiatives, especially when outcomes are negatively correlated between subregions of a planning area.

  17. Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ando, Amy W.; Mallory, Mindy L.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) as an example. This approach finds the allocations of conservation activity among subregions of the planning area that maximize the expected conservation returns for a given level of uncertainty or minimize uncertainty for a given expected level of returns. We find that using MPT instead of simple diversification in the PPR can achieve a value of the conservation objective per dollar spent that is 15% higher for the same level of risk. MPT-based portfolios can also have 21% less uncertainty over benefits or 6% greater expected benefits than the current portfolio of PPR conservation. Total benefits from conservation investment are higher if returns are defined in terms of benefit–cost ratios rather than benefits alone. MPT-guided diversification can work to reduce the climate-change–induced uncertainty of future ecosystem-service benefits from many land policy and investment initiatives, especially when outcomes are negatively correlated between subregions of a planning area. PMID:22451914

  18. Temperature trends with reduced impact of ocean air temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lansner, Frank; Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke

    Temperature data 1900-2010 from meteorological stations across the world have been analysed and it has been found that all areas generally have two different valid temperature trends. Coastal stations and hill stations facing dominant ocean winds are normally more warm-trended than the valley sta...

  19. Temperature trends with reduced impact of ocean air temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lansner, Frank; Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke

    2018-01-01

    Temperature data 1900–2010 from meteorological stations across the world have been analyzed and it has been found that all land areas generally have two different valid temperature trends. Coastal stations and hill stations facing ocean winds are normally more warm-trended than the valley station...

  20. Determination of temperature measurements uncertainties of the heat transport primary system of Embalse nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pomerantz, Marcelo E.; Coutsiers, Eduardo E.; Moreno, Carlos A.

    1999-01-01

    In this work, the systematic errors in temperature measurements in inlet and outlet headers of HTPS coolant channels of Embalse nuclear power plant are evaluated. These uncertainties are necessary for a later evaluation of the channel power maps transferred to the coolant. The power maps calculated in this way are used to compare power distributions using neutronic codes. Therefore, a methodology to correct systematic errors of temperature in outlet feeders and inlet headers is developed in this work. (author)

  1. Reduced annealing temperatures in silicon solar cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberg, I.; Swartz, C. K.

    1981-01-01

    Cells irradiated to a fluence of 5x10,000,000,000,000/square cm showed short circuit current on annealing at 200 C, with complete annealing occurring at 275 C. Cells irradiated to 100,000,000,000,000/square cm showed a reduction in annealing temperature from the usual 500 to 300 C. Annealing kinetic studies yield an activation energy of (1.5 + or - 2) eV for the low fluence, low temperature anneal. Comparison with activation energies previously obtained indicate that the presently obtained activation energy is consistent with the presence of either the divacancy or the carbon interstitial carbon substitutional pair, a result which agrees with the conclusion based on defect behavior in boron-doped silicon.

  2. A new approach to reduce uncertainties in space radiation cancer risk predictions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis A Cucinotta

    Full Text Available The prediction of space radiation induced cancer risk carries large uncertainties with two of the largest uncertainties being radiation quality and dose-rate effects. In risk models the ratio of the quality factor (QF to the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF parameter is used to scale organ doses for cosmic ray proton and high charge and energy (HZE particles to a hazard rate for γ-rays derived from human epidemiology data. In previous work, particle track structure concepts were used to formulate a space radiation QF function that is dependent on particle charge number Z, and kinetic energy per atomic mass unit, E. QF uncertainties where represented by subjective probability distribution functions (PDF for the three QF parameters that described its maximum value and shape parameters for Z and E dependences. Here I report on an analysis of a maximum QF parameter and its uncertainty using mouse tumor induction data. Because experimental data for risks at low doses of γ-rays are highly uncertain which impacts estimates of maximum values of relative biological effectiveness (RBEmax, I developed an alternate QF model, denoted QFγAcute where QFs are defined relative to higher acute γ-ray doses (0.5 to 3 Gy. The alternate model reduces the dependence of risk projections on the DDREF, however a DDREF is still needed for risk estimates for high-energy protons and other primary or secondary sparsely ionizing space radiation components. Risk projections (upper confidence levels (CL for space missions show a reduction of about 40% (CL∼50% using the QFγAcute model compared the QFs based on RBEmax and about 25% (CL∼35% compared to previous estimates. In addition, I discuss how a possible qualitative difference leading to increased tumor lethality for HZE particles compared to low LET radiation and background tumors remains a large uncertainty in risk estimates.

  3. Reducing structural uncertainty in conceptual hydrological modeling in the semi-arid Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hublart, P.; Ruelland, D.; Dezetter, A.; Jourde, H.

    2014-10-01

    The use of lumped, conceptual models in hydrological impact studies requires placing more emphasis on the uncertainty arising from deficiencies and/or ambiguities in the model structure. This study provides an opportunity to combine a multiple-hypothesis framework with a multi-criteria assessment scheme to reduce structural uncertainty in the conceptual modeling of a meso-scale Andean catchment (1515 km2) over a 30 year period (1982-2011). The modeling process was decomposed into six model-building decisions related to the following aspects of the system behavior: snow accumulation and melt, runoff generation, redistribution and delay of water fluxes, and natural storage effects. Each of these decisions was provided with a set of alternative modeling options, resulting in a total of 72 competing model structures. These structures were calibrated using the concept of Pareto optimality with three criteria pertaining to streamflow simulations and one to the seasonal dynamics of snow processes. The results were analyzed in the four-dimensional space of performance measures using a fuzzy c-means clustering technique and a differential split sample test, leading to identify 14 equally acceptable model hypotheses. A filtering approach was then applied to these best-performing structures in order to minimize the overall uncertainty envelope while maximizing the number of enclosed observations. This led to retain 8 model hypotheses as a representation of the minimum structural uncertainty that could be obtained with this modeling framework. Future work to better consider model predictive uncertainty should include a proper assessment of parameter equifinality and data errors, as well as the testing of new or refined hypotheses to allow for the use of additional auxiliary observations.

  4. Reducing structural uncertainty in conceptual hydrological modelling in the semi-arid Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hublart, P.; Ruelland, D.; Dezetter, A.; Jourde, H.

    2015-05-01

    The use of lumped, conceptual models in hydrological impact studies requires placing more emphasis on the uncertainty arising from deficiencies and/or ambiguities in the model structure. This study provides an opportunity to combine a multiple-hypothesis framework with a multi-criteria assessment scheme to reduce structural uncertainty in the conceptual modelling of a mesoscale Andean catchment (1515 km2) over a 30-year period (1982-2011). The modelling process was decomposed into six model-building decisions related to the following aspects of the system behaviour: snow accumulation and melt, runoff generation, redistribution and delay of water fluxes, and natural storage effects. Each of these decisions was provided with a set of alternative modelling options, resulting in a total of 72 competing model structures. These structures were calibrated using the concept of Pareto optimality with three criteria pertaining to streamflow simulations and one to the seasonal dynamics of snow processes. The results were analyzed in the four-dimensional (4-D) space of performance measures using a fuzzy c-means clustering technique and a differential split sample test, leading to identify 14 equally acceptable model hypotheses. A filtering approach was then applied to these best-performing structures in order to minimize the overall uncertainty envelope while maximizing the number of enclosed observations. This led to retain eight model hypotheses as a representation of the minimum structural uncertainty that could be obtained with this modelling framework. Future work to better consider model predictive uncertainty should include a proper assessment of parameter equifinality and data errors, as well as the testing of new or refined hypotheses to allow for the use of additional auxiliary observations.

  5. Integrating geophysics and hydrology for reducing the uncertainty of groundwater model predictions and improved prediction performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen; Ferre, Ty

    the integration of geophysical data in the construction of a groundwater model increases the prediction performance. We suggest that modelers should perform a hydrogeophysical “test-bench” analysis of the likely value of geophysics data for improving groundwater model prediction performance before actually...... and the resulting predictions can be compared with predictions from the ‘true’ model. By performing this analysis we expect to give the modeler insight into how the uncertainty of model-based prediction can be reduced.......A major purpose of groundwater modeling is to help decision-makers in efforts to manage the natural environment. Increasingly, it is recognized that both the predictions of interest and their associated uncertainties should be quantified to support robust decision making. In particular, decision...

  6. Developing first time-series of land surface temperature from AATSR with uncertainty estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghent, Darren; Remedios, John

    2013-04-01

    Land surface temperature (LST) is the radiative skin temperature of the land, and is one of the key parameters in the physics of land-surface processes on regional and global scales. Earth Observation satellites provide the opportunity to obtain global coverage of LST approximately every 3 days or less. One such source of satellite retrieved LST has been the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR); with LST retrieval being implemented in the AATSR Instrument Processing Facility in March 2004. Here we present first regional and global time-series of LST data from AATSR with estimates of uncertainty. Mean changes in temperature over the last decade will be discussed along with regional patterns. Although time-series across all three ATSR missions have previously been constructed (Kogler et al., 2012), the use of low resolution auxiliary data in the retrieval algorithm and non-optimal cloud masking resulted in time-series artefacts. As such, considerable ESA supported development has been carried out on the AATSR data to address these concerns. This includes the integration of high resolution auxiliary data into the retrieval algorithm and subsequent generation of coefficients and tuning parameters, plus the development of an improved cloud mask based on the simulation of clear sky conditions from radiance transfer modelling (Ghent et al., in prep.). Any inference on this LST record is though of limited value without the accompaniment of an uncertainty estimate; wherein the Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology quote an uncertainty as "a parameter associated with the result of a measurement that characterizes the dispersion of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand that is the value of the particular quantity to be measured". Furthermore, pixel level uncertainty fields are a mandatory requirement in the on-going preparation of the LST product for the upcoming Sea and Land Surface Temperature (SLSTR) instrument on-board Sentinel-3

  7. Reducing uncertainty in dust monitoring to detect aeolian sediment transport responses to land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, N.; Chappell, A.; Van Zee, J.; Toledo, D.; Duniway, M.; Billings, B.; Tedela, N.

    2017-12-01

    Anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) influence global rates of wind erosion and dust emission, yet our understanding of the magnitude of the responses remains poor. Field measurements and monitoring provide essential data to resolve aeolian sediment transport patterns and assess the impacts of human land use and management intensity. Data collected in the field are also required for dust model calibration and testing, as models have become the primary tool for assessing LULCC-dust cycle interactions. However, there is considerable uncertainty in estimates of dust emission due to the spatial variability of sediment transport. Field sampling designs are currently rudimentary and considerable opportunities are available to reduce the uncertainty. Establishing the minimum detectable change is critical for measuring spatial and temporal patterns of sediment transport, detecting potential impacts of LULCC and land management, and for quantifying the uncertainty of dust model estimates. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of common sampling designs (e.g., simple random sampling, systematic sampling) used to measure and monitor aeolian sediment transport rates. Using data from the US National Wind Erosion Research Network across diverse rangeland and cropland cover types, we demonstrate how only large changes in sediment mass flux (of the order 200% to 800%) can be detected when small sample sizes are used, crude sampling designs are implemented, or when the spatial variation is large. We then show how statistical rigour and the straightforward application of a sampling design can reduce the uncertainty and detect change in sediment transport over time and between land use and land cover types.

  8. Measurement Uncertainty of Dew-Point Temperature in a Two-Pressure Humidity Generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, L. Lages; Ribeiro, A. Silva; Alves e Sousa, J.; Forbes, Alistair B.

    2012-09-01

    This article describes the measurement uncertainty evaluation of the dew-point temperature when using a two-pressure humidity generator as a reference standard. The estimation of the dew-point temperature involves the solution of a non-linear equation for which iterative solution techniques, such as the Newton-Raphson method, are required. Previous studies have already been carried out using the GUM method and the Monte Carlo method but have not discussed the impact of the approximate numerical method used to provide the temperature estimation. One of the aims of this article is to take this approximation into account. Following the guidelines presented in the GUM Supplement 1, two alternative approaches can be developed: the forward measurement uncertainty propagation by the Monte Carlo method when using the Newton-Raphson numerical procedure; and the inverse measurement uncertainty propagation by Bayesian inference, based on prior available information regarding the usual dispersion of values obtained by the calibration process. The measurement uncertainties obtained using these two methods can be compared with previous results. Other relevant issues concerning this research are the broad application to measurements that require hygrometric conditions obtained from two-pressure humidity generators and, also, the ability to provide a solution that can be applied to similar iterative models. The research also studied the factors influencing both the use of the Monte Carlo method (such as the seed value and the convergence parameter) and the inverse uncertainty propagation using Bayesian inference (such as the pre-assigned tolerance, prior estimate, and standard deviation) in terms of their accuracy and adequacy.

  9. The worth of data to reduce predictive uncertainty of an integrated catchment model by multi-constraint calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, J.; Jensen, K. H.; Stisen, S.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological models that integrate numerical process descriptions across compartments of the water cycle are typically required to undergo thorough model calibration in order to estimate suitable effective model parameters. In this study, we apply a spatially distributed hydrological model code which couples the saturated zone with the unsaturated zone and the energy portioning at the land surface. We conduct a comprehensive multi-constraint model calibration against nine independent observational datasets which reflect both the temporal and the spatial behavior of hydrological response of a 1000km2 large catchment in Denmark. The datasets are obtained from satellite remote sensing and in-situ measurements and cover five keystone hydrological variables: discharge, evapotranspiration, groundwater head, soil moisture and land surface temperature. Results indicate that a balanced optimization can be achieved where errors on objective functions for all nine observational datasets can be reduced simultaneously. The applied calibration framework was tailored with focus on improving the spatial pattern performance; however results suggest that the optimization is still more prone to improve the temporal dimension of model performance. This study features a post-calibration linear uncertainty analysis. This allows quantifying parameter identifiability which is the worth of a specific observational dataset to infer values to model parameters through calibration. Furthermore the ability of an observation to reduce predictive uncertainty is assessed as well. Such findings determine concrete implications on the design of model calibration frameworks and, in more general terms, the acquisition of data in hydrological observatories.

  10. Subpixel edge localization with reduced uncertainty by violating the Nyquist criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidingsfelder, Philipp; Gao, Jun; Wang, Kun; Ott, Peter

    2014-12-01

    In this contribution, the extent to which the Nyquist criterion can be violated in optical imaging systems with a digital sensor, e.g., a digital microscope, is investigated. In detail, we analyze the subpixel uncertainty of the detected position of a step edge, the edge of a stripe with a varying width, and that of a periodic rectangular pattern for varying pixel pitches of the sensor, thus also in aliased conditions. The analysis includes the investigation of different algorithms of edge localization based on direct fitting or based on the derivative of the edge profile, such as the common centroid method. In addition to the systematic error of these algorithms, the influence of the photon noise (PN) is included in the investigation. A simplified closed form solution for the uncertainty of the edge position caused by the PN is derived. The presented results show that, in the vast majority of cases, the pixel pitch can exceed the Nyquist sampling distance by about 50% without an increase of the uncertainty of edge localization. This allows one to increase the field-of-view without increasing the resolution of the sensor and to decrease the size of the setup by reducing the magnification. Experimental results confirm the simulation results.

  11. Uncertainty in climate-carbon-cycle projections associated with the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Chris D.; Cox, Peter; Huntingford, Chris

    2003-01-01

    Carbon-cycle feedbacks have been shown to be very important in predicting climate change over the next century, with a potentially large positive feedback coming from the release of carbon from soils as global temperatures increase. The magnitude of this feedback and whether or not it drives the terrestrial carbon cycle to become a net source of carbon dioxide during the next century depends particularly on the response of soil respiration to temperature. Observed global atmospheric CO 2 concentration, and its response to naturally occurring climate anomalies, is used to constrain the behaviour of soil respiration in our coupled climate-carbon-cycle GCM. This constraint is used to quantify some of the uncertainties in predictions of future CO 2 levels. The uncertainty is large, emphasizing the importance of carbon-cycle research with respect to future climate change predictions

  12. Revealing, Reducing, and Representing Uncertainties in New Hydrologic Projections for Climate-changed Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Jeffrey; Clark, Martyn; Gutmann, Ethan; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy

    2016-04-01

    The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for multi-purpose water resource operations on most of the major river systems in the U.S. for more than 200 years. In that time, the USACE projects and programs making up those operations have proved mostly robust against the range of natural climate variability encountered over their operating life spans. However, in some watersheds and for some variables, climate change now is known to be shifting the hydroclimatic baseline around which that natural variability occurs and changing the range of that variability as well. This makes historical stationarity an inappropriate basis for assessing continued project operations under climate-changed futures. That means new hydroclimatic projections are required at multiple scales to inform decisions about specific threats and impacts, and for possible adaptation responses to limit water-resource vulnerabilities and enhance operational resilience. However, projections of possible future hydroclimatologies have myriad complex uncertainties that require explicit guidance for interpreting and using them to inform those decisions about climate vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, many of these uncertainties overlap and interact. Recent work, for example, has shown the importance of assessing the uncertainties from multiple sources including: global model structure [Meehl et al., 2005; Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013]; internal climate variability [Deser et al., 2012; Kay et al., 2014]; climate downscaling methods [Gutmann et al., 2012; Mearns et al., 2013]; and hydrologic models [Addor et al., 2014; Vano et al., 2014; Mendoza et al., 2015]. Revealing, reducing, and representing these uncertainties is essential for defining the plausible quantitative climate change narratives required to inform water-resource decision-making. And to be useful, such quantitative narratives, or storylines, of climate change threats and hydrologic impacts must sample

  13. A hierarchical bayesian model to quantify uncertainty of stream water temperature forecasts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Bal

    Full Text Available Providing generic and cost effective modelling approaches to reconstruct and forecast freshwater temperature using predictors as air temperature and water discharge is a prerequisite to understanding ecological processes underlying the impact of water temperature and of global warming on continental aquatic ecosystems. Using air temperature as a simple linear predictor of water temperature can lead to significant bias in forecasts as it does not disentangle seasonality and long term trends in the signal. Here, we develop an alternative approach based on hierarchical Bayesian statistical time series modelling of water temperature, air temperature and water discharge using seasonal sinusoidal periodic signals and time varying means and amplitudes. Fitting and forecasting performances of this approach are compared with that of simple linear regression between water and air temperatures using i an emotive simulated example, ii application to three French coastal streams with contrasting bio-geographical conditions and sizes. The time series modelling approach better fit data and does not exhibit forecasting bias in long term trends contrary to the linear regression. This new model also allows for more accurate forecasts of water temperature than linear regression together with a fair assessment of the uncertainty around forecasting. Warming of water temperature forecast by our hierarchical Bayesian model was slower and more uncertain than that expected with the classical regression approach. These new forecasts are in a form that is readily usable in further ecological analyses and will allow weighting of outcomes from different scenarios to manage climate change impacts on freshwater wildlife.

  14. Stream temperature estimated in situ from thermal-infrared images: best estimate and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iezzi, F; Todisco, M T

    2015-01-01

    The paper aims to show a technique to estimate in situ the stream temperature from thermal-infrared images deepening its best estimate and uncertainty. Stream temperature is an important indicator of water quality and nowadays its assessment is important particularly for thermal pollution monitoring in water bodies. Stream temperature changes are especially due to the anthropogenic heat input from urban wastewater and from water used as a coolant by power plants and industrial manufacturers. The stream temperatures assessment using ordinary techniques (e.g. appropriate thermometers) is limited by sparse sampling in space due to a spatial discretization necessarily punctual. Latest and most advanced techniques assess the stream temperature using thermal-infrared remote sensing based on thermal imagers placed usually on aircrafts or using satellite images. These techniques assess only the surface water temperature and they are suitable to detect the temperature of vast water bodies but do not allow a detailed and precise surface water temperature assessment in limited areas of the water body. The technique shown in this research is based on the assessment of thermal-infrared images obtained in situ via portable thermal imager. As in all thermographic techniques, also in this technique, it is possible to estimate only the surface water temperature. A stream with the presence of a discharge of urban wastewater is proposed as case study to validate the technique and to show its application limits. Since the technique analyzes limited areas in extension of the water body, it allows a detailed and precise assessment of the water temperature. In general, the punctual and average stream temperatures are respectively uncorrected and corrected. An appropriate statistical method that minimizes the errors in the average stream temperature is proposed. The correct measurement of this temperature through the assessment of thermal- infrared images obtained in situ via portable

  15. A Best-Estimate Reactor Core Monitor Using State Feedback Strategies to Reduce Uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Robert P.; Edwards, Robert M.

    2000-01-01

    The development and demonstration of a new algorithm to reduce modeling and state-estimation uncertainty in best-estimate simulation codes has been investigated. Demonstration is given by way of a prototype reactor core monitor. The architecture of this monitor integrates a control-theory-based, distributed-parameter estimation technique into a production-grade best-estimate simulation code. The Kalman Filter-Sequential Least-Squares (KFSLS) parameter estimation algorithm has been extended for application into the computational environment of the best-estimate simulation code RELAP5-3D. In control system terminology, this configuration can be thought of as a 'best-estimate' observer. The application to a distributed-parameter reactor system involves a unique modal model that approximates physical components, such as the reactor, by describing both states and parameters by an orthogonal expansion. The basic KFSLS parameter estimation is used to dynamically refine a spatially varying (distributed) parameter. The application of the distributed-parameter estimator is expected to complement a traditional nonlinear best-estimate simulation code by providing a mechanism for reducing both code input (modeling) and output (state-estimation) uncertainty in complex, distributed-parameter systems

  16. Temperature acclimation of photosynthesis and respiration: A key uncertainty in the carbon cycle-climate feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardozzi, Danica L.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Smith, Nicholas G.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Fisher, Rosie A.

    2015-10-01

    Earth System Models typically use static responses to temperature to calculate photosynthesis and respiration, but experimental evidence suggests that many plants acclimate to prevailing temperatures. We incorporated representations of photosynthetic and leaf respiratory temperature acclimation into the Community Land Model, the terrestrial component of the Community Earth System Model. These processes increased terrestrial carbon pools by 20 Pg C (22%) at the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) climate scenario. Including the less certain estimates of stem and root respiration acclimation increased terrestrial carbon pools by an additional 17 Pg C (~40% overall increase). High latitudes gained the most carbon with acclimation, and tropical carbon pools increased least. However, results from both of these regions remain uncertain; few relevant data exist for tropical and boreal plants or for extreme temperatures. Constraining these uncertainties will produce more realistic estimates of land carbon feedbacks throughout the 21st century.

  17. Intolerance of uncertainty mediates reduced reward anticipation in major depressive disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Brady D; Shankman, Stewart A; Proudfit, Greg H

    2014-04-01

    Reduced reward sensitivity has long been considered a fundamental deficit of major depressive disorder (MDD). One way this deficit has been measured is by an asymmetry in electroencephalogram (EEG) activity between left and right frontal brain regions. MDD has been associated with a reduced frontal EEG asymmetry (i.e., decreased left relative to right) while anticipating reward. However, the mechanism (or mediator) of this association is unclear. The present study examined whether intolerance of uncertainty (IU) mediated the association between depression and reduced reward anticipation. Data were obtained from a prior study reporting reduced frontal EEG asymmetry while anticipating reward in early-onset MDD. Participants included 156 individuals with early-onset MDD-only, panic disorder-only, both (comorbids), or controls. Frontal EEG asymmetry was recorded during an uncertain reward anticipation task. Participants completed a self-report measure of IU. All three psychopathology groups reported greater IU relative to controls. Across all participants, greater IU was associated with a reduced frontal EEG asymmetry. Furthermore, IU mediated the relationship between MDD and frontal EEG asymmetry and results remained significant after controlling for neuroticism, suggesting effects were not due to broad negative affectivity. MDD participants were limited to those with early-onset depression. Measures were collected cross-sectionally, precluding causal relationships. IU mediated the relationship between MDD and reduced reward anticipation, independent of neuroticism. Explanations are provided regarding how IU may contribute to reduced reward anticipation in depression. Overall, IU appears to be an important mechanism for the association between depression and reduced reward anticipation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Assessing the Expected Value of Research Studies in Reducing Uncertainty and Improving Implementation Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

    2017-07-01

    With low implementation of cost-effective health technologies being a problem in many health systems, it is worth considering the potential effects of research on implementation at the time of health technology assessment. Meaningful and realistic implementation estimates must be of dynamic nature. To extend existing methods for assessing the value of research studies in terms of both reduction of uncertainty and improvement in implementation by considering diffusion based on expert beliefs with and without further research conditional on the strength of evidence. We use expected value of sample information and expected value of specific implementation measure concepts accounting for the effects of specific research studies on implementation and the reduction of uncertainty. Diffusion theory and elicitation of expert beliefs about the shape of diffusion curves inform implementation dynamics. We illustrate use of the resulting dynamic expected value of research in a preterm birth screening technology and results are compared with those from a static analysis. Allowing for diffusion based on expert beliefs had a significant impact on the expected value of research in the case study, suggesting that mistakes are made where static implementation levels are assumed. Incorporating the effects of research on implementation resulted in an increase in the expected value of research compared to the expected value of sample information alone. Assessing the expected value of research in reducing uncertainty and improving implementation dynamics has the potential to complement currently used analyses in health technology assessments, especially in recommendations for further research. The combination of expected value of research, diffusion theory, and elicitation described in this article is an important addition to the existing methods of health technology assessment.

  19. Reducing Multisensor Satellite Monthly Mean Aerosol Optical Depth Uncertainty: 1. Objective Assessment of Current AERONET Locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Li, Xichen; Carlson, Barbara E.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Lacis, Andrew A.; Dubovik, Oleg; Nakajima, Teruyuki

    2016-01-01

    Various space-based sensors have been designed and corresponding algorithms developed to retrieve aerosol optical depth (AOD), the very basic aerosol optical property, yet considerable disagreement still exists across these different satellite data sets. Surface-based observations aim to provide ground truth for validating satellite data; hence, their deployment locations should preferably contain as much spatial information as possible, i.e., high spatial representativeness. Using a novel Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)- based approach, we objectively evaluate the spatial representativeness of current Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites. Multisensor monthly mean AOD data sets from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer, Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor, Ozone Monitoring Instrument, and Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar are combined into a 605-member ensemble, and AERONET data are considered as the observations to be assimilated into this ensemble using the EnKF. The assessment is made by comparing the analysis error variance (that has been constrained by ground-based measurements), with the background error variance (based on satellite data alone). Results show that the total uncertainty is reduced by approximately 27% on average and could reach above 50% over certain places. The uncertainty reduction pattern also has distinct seasonal patterns, corresponding to the spatial distribution of seasonally varying aerosol types, such as dust in the spring for Northern Hemisphere and biomass burning in the fall for Southern Hemisphere. Dust and biomass burning sites have the highest spatial representativeness, rural and oceanic sites can also represent moderate spatial information, whereas the representativeness of urban sites is relatively localized. A spatial score ranging from 1 to 3 is assigned to each AERONET site based on the uncertainty

  20. Uncertainties in hydrogen combustion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stamps, D.W.; Wong, C.C.; Nelson, L.S.

    1988-01-01

    Three important areas of hydrogen combustion with uncertainties are identified: high-temperature combustion, flame acceleration and deflagration-to-detonation transition, and aerosol resuspension during hydrogen combustion. The uncertainties associated with high-temperature combustion may affect at least three different accident scenarios: the in-cavity oxidation of combustible gases produced by core-concrete interactions, the direct containment heating hydrogen problem, and the possibility of local detonations. How these uncertainties may affect the sequence of various accident scenarios is discussed and recommendations are made to reduce these uncertainties. 40 references

  1. Understanding uncertainty in temperature effects on vector-borne disease: a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Leah R.; Ben-Horin, Tal; Lafferty, Kevin D.; McNally, Amy; Mordecai, Erin A.; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Pawar, Samraat; Ryan, Sadie J.

    2015-01-01

    Extrinsic environmental factors influence the distribution and population dynamics of many organisms, including insects that are of concern for human health and agriculture. This is particularly true for vector-borne infectious diseases like malaria, which is a major source of morbidity and mortality in humans. Understanding the mechanistic links between environment and population processes for these diseases is key to predicting the consequences of climate change on transmission and for developing effective interventions. An important measure of the intensity of disease transmission is the reproductive number R0. However, understanding the mechanisms linking R0 and temperature, an environmental factor driving disease risk, can be challenging because the data available for parameterization are often poor. To address this, we show how a Bayesian approach can help identify critical uncertainties in components of R0 and how this uncertainty is propagated into the estimate of R0. Most notably, we find that different parameters dominate the uncertainty at different temperature regimes: bite rate from 15°C to 25°C; fecundity across all temperatures, but especially ~25–32°C; mortality from 20°C to 30°C; parasite development rate at ~15–16°C and again at ~33–35°C. Focusing empirical studies on these parameters and corresponding temperature ranges would be the most efficient way to improve estimates of R0. While we focus on malaria, our methods apply to improving process-based models more generally, including epidemiological, physiological niche, and species distribution models.

  2. Signal detection in global mean temperatures after "Paris": an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, Hans; Dangendorf, Sönke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Bregman, Bram; Petersen, Arthur C.

    2018-02-01

    In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these targets, it is important to know how GMST has progressed since pre-industrial times. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. Should trend progression be deduced from GCM simulations or from instrumental records by (statistical) trend methods? Which simulations or GMST datasets should be chosen, and which trend models? What is pre-industrial and, finally, are the Paris targets formulated for total warming, originating from both natural and anthropogenic forcing, or do they refer to anthropogenic warming only? To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets and model choices have been varied. For all cases we evaluated trend progression along with uncertainty information. To do so, we analysed four trend approaches and applied these to the five leading observational GMST products. We find GMST progression to be largely independent of various trend model approaches. However, GMST progression is significantly influenced by the choice of GMST datasets. Uncertainties due to natural variability are largest in size. As a parallel path, we calculated GMST progression from an ensemble of 42 GCM simulations. Mean progression derived from GCM-based GMSTs appears to lie in the range of trend-dataset combinations. A difference between both approaches appears to be the width of uncertainty bands: GCM simulations show a much wider spread. Finally, we discuss various choices for pre-industrial baselines and the role of warming definitions. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in GMSTs since pre-industrial.

  3. Diagnosing Geospatial Uncertainty Visualization Challenges in Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speciale, A.; Kenney, M. A.; Gerst, M.; Baer, A. E.; DeWitt, D.; Gottschalk, J.; Handel, S.

    2017-12-01

    The uncertainty of future weather and climate conditions is important for many decisions made in communities and economic sectors. One tool that decision-makers use in gauging this uncertainty is forecasts, especially maps (or visualizations) of probabilistic forecast results. However, visualizing geospatial uncertainty is challenging because including probability introduces an extra variable to represent and probability is often poorly understood by users. Using focus group and survey methods, this study seeks to understand the barriers to using probabilistic temperature and precipitation visualizations for specific decisions in the agriculture, energy, emergency management, and water resource sectors. Preliminary results shown here focus on findings of emergency manager needs. Our experimental design uses National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA's) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) climate outlooks, which produce probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecast visualizations at the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, 3-4 week, and 1 and 3 month timeframes. Users were asked to complete questions related to how they use weather information, how uncertainty is represented, and design elements (e.g., color, contour lines) of the visualizations. Preliminary results from the emergency management sector indicate there is significant confusion on how "normal" weather is defined, boundaries between probability ranges, and meaning of the contour lines. After a complete understandability diagnosis is made using results from all sectors, we will collaborate with CPC to suggest modifications to the climate outlook visualizations. These modifications will then be retested in similar focus groups and web-based surveys to confirm they better meet the needs of users.

  4. Signal detection in global mean temperatures after “Paris”: an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Visser

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these targets, it is important to know how GMST has progressed since pre-industrial times. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. Should trend progression be deduced from GCM simulations or from instrumental records by (statistical trend methods? Which simulations or GMST datasets should be chosen, and which trend models? What is pre-industrial and, finally, are the Paris targets formulated for total warming, originating from both natural and anthropogenic forcing, or do they refer to anthropogenic warming only? To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets and model choices have been varied. For all cases we evaluated trend progression along with uncertainty information. To do so, we analysed four trend approaches and applied these to the five leading observational GMST products. We find GMST progression to be largely independent of various trend model approaches. However, GMST progression is significantly influenced by the choice of GMST datasets. Uncertainties due to natural variability are largest in size. As a parallel path, we calculated GMST progression from an ensemble of 42 GCM simulations. Mean progression derived from GCM-based GMSTs appears to lie in the range of trend–dataset combinations. A difference between both approaches appears to be the width of uncertainty bands: GCM simulations show a much wider spread. Finally, we discuss various choices for pre-industrial baselines and the role of warming definitions. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in GMSTs since pre-industrial.

  5. Regulatory risk assessments: Is there a need to reduce uncertainty and enhance robustness?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snodin, D J

    2015-12-01

    A critical evaluation of several recent regulatory risk assessments has been undertaken. These relate to propyl paraben (as a food additive, cosmetic ingredient or pharmaceutical excipient), cobalt (in terms of a safety-based limit for pharmaceuticals) and the cancer Threshold of Toxicological Concern as applied to food contaminants and pharmaceutical impurities. In all cases, a number of concerns can be raised regarding the reliability of the current assessments, some examples being absence of data audits, use of single-dose and/or non-good laboratory practice studies to determine safety metrics, use of a biased data set and questionable methodology and lack of consistency with precedents and regulatory guidance. Drawing on these findings, a set of recommendations is provided to reduce uncertainty and improve the quality and robustness of future regulatory risk assessments. © The Author(s) 2015.

  6. Predicting Statistical Response and Extreme Events in Uncertainty Quantification through Reduced-Order Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, D.; Majda, A.

    2017-12-01

    A low-dimensional reduced-order statistical closure model is developed for quantifying the uncertainty in statistical sensitivity and intermittency in principal model directions with largest variability in high-dimensional turbulent system and turbulent transport models. Imperfect model sensitivity is improved through a recent mathematical strategy for calibrating model errors in a training phase, where information theory and linear statistical response theory are combined in a systematic fashion to achieve the optimal model performance. The idea in the reduced-order method is from a self-consistent mathematical framework for general systems with quadratic nonlinearity, where crucial high-order statistics are approximated by a systematic model calibration procedure. Model efficiency is improved through additional damping and noise corrections to replace the expensive energy-conserving nonlinear interactions. Model errors due to the imperfect nonlinear approximation are corrected by tuning the model parameters using linear response theory with an information metric in a training phase before prediction. A statistical energy principle is adopted to introduce a global scaling factor in characterizing the higher-order moments in a consistent way to improve model sensitivity. Stringent models of barotropic and baroclinic turbulence are used to display the feasibility of the reduced-order methods. Principal statistical responses in mean and variance can be captured by the reduced-order models with accuracy and efficiency. Besides, the reduced-order models are also used to capture crucial passive tracer field that is advected by the baroclinic turbulent flow. It is demonstrated that crucial principal statistical quantities like the tracer spectrum and fat-tails in the tracer probability density functions in the most important large scales can be captured efficiently with accuracy using the reduced-order tracer model in various dynamical regimes of the flow field with

  7. Using internal discharge data in a distributed conceptual model to reduce uncertainty in streamflow simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, J.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.; Lundin, L.

    2011-12-01

    Distributed hydrological models are important tools in water management as they account for the spatial variability of the hydrological data, as well as being able to produce spatially distributed outputs. They can directly incorporate and assess potential changes in the characteristics of our basins. A recognized problem for models in general is equifinality, which is only exacerbated for distributed models who tend to have a large number of parameters. We need to deal with the fundamentally ill-posed nature of the problem that such models force us to face, i.e. a large number of parameters and very few variables that can be used to constrain them, often only the catchment discharge. There is a growing but yet limited literature showing how the internal states of a distributed model can be used to calibrate/validate its predictions. In this paper, a distributed version of WASMOD, a conceptual rainfall runoff model with only three parameters, combined with a routing algorithm based on the high-resolution HydroSHEDS data was used to simulate the discharge in the Paso La Ceiba basin in Honduras. The parameter space was explored using Monte-Carlo simulations and the region of space containing the parameter-sets that were considered behavioral according to two different criteria was delimited using the geometric concept of alpha-shapes. The discharge data from five internal sub-basins was used to aid in the calibration of the model and to answer the following questions: Can this information improve the simulations at the outlet of the catchment, or decrease their uncertainty? Also, after reducing the number of model parameters needing calibration through sensitivity analysis: Is it possible to relate them to basin characteristics? The analysis revealed that in most cases the internal discharge data can be used to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge at the outlet, albeit with little improvement in the overall simulation results.

  8. Do regional methods really help reduce uncertainties in flood frequency analyses?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong Nguyen, Chi; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric

    2013-04-01

    Flood frequency analyses are often based on continuous measured series at gauge sites. However, the length of the available data sets is usually too short to provide reliable estimates of extreme design floods. To reduce the estimation uncertainties, the analyzed data sets have to be extended either in time, making use of historical and paleoflood data, or in space, merging data sets considered as statistically homogeneous to build large regional data samples. Nevertheless, the advantage of the regional analyses, the important increase of the size of the studied data sets, may be counterbalanced by the possible heterogeneities of the merged sets. The application and comparison of four different flood frequency analysis methods to two regions affected by flash floods in the south of France (Ardèche and Var) illustrates how this balance between the number of records and possible heterogeneities plays in real-world applications. The four tested methods are: (1) a local statistical analysis based on the existing series of measured discharges, (2) a local analysis valuating the existing information on historical floods, (3) a standard regional flood frequency analysis based on existing measured series at gauged sites and (4) a modified regional analysis including estimated extreme peak discharges at ungauged sites. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to simulate a large number of discharge series with characteristics similar to the observed ones (type of statistical distributions, number of sites and records) to evaluate to which extent the results obtained on these case studies can be generalized. These two case studies indicate that even small statistical heterogeneities, which are not detected by the standard homogeneity tests implemented in regional flood frequency studies, may drastically limit the usefulness of such approaches. On the other hand, these result show that the valuation of information on extreme events, either historical flood events at gauged

  9. High resolution remote sensing for reducing uncertainties in urban forest carbon offset life cycle assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tigges, Jan; Lakes, Tobia

    2017-10-04

    Urban forests reduce greenhouse gas emissions by storing and sequestering considerable amounts of carbon. However, few studies have considered the local scale of urban forests to effectively evaluate their potential long-term carbon offset. The lack of precise, consistent and up-to-date forest details is challenging for long-term prognoses. Therefore, this review aims to identify uncertainties in urban forest carbon offset assessment and discuss the extent to which such uncertainties can be reduced by recent progress in high resolution remote sensing. We do this by performing an extensive literature review and a case study combining remote sensing and life cycle assessment of urban forest carbon offset in Berlin, Germany. Recent progress in high resolution remote sensing and methods is adequate for delivering more precise details on the urban tree canopy, individual tree metrics, species, and age structures compared to conventional land use/cover class approaches. These area-wide consistent details can update life cycle inventories for more precise future prognoses. Additional improvements in classification accuracy can be achieved by a higher number of features derived from remote sensing data of increasing resolution, but first studies on this subject indicated that a smart selection of features already provides sufficient data that avoids redundancies and enables more efficient data processing. Our case study from Berlin could use remotely sensed individual tree species as consistent inventory of a life cycle assessment. However, a lack of growth, mortality and planting data forced us to make assumptions, therefore creating uncertainty in the long-term prognoses. Regarding temporal changes and reliable long-term estimates, more attention is required to detect changes of gradual growth, pruning and abrupt changes in tree planting and mortality. As such, precise long-term urban ecological monitoring using high resolution remote sensing should be intensified

  10. Reducing consistency in human realism increases the uncanny valley effect; increasing category uncertainty does not.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDorman, Karl F; Chattopadhyay, Debaleena

    2016-01-01

    Human replicas may elicit unintended cold, eerie feelings in viewers, an effect known as the uncanny valley. Masahiro Mori, who proposed the effect in 1970, attributed it to inconsistencies in the replica's realism with some of its features perceived as human and others as nonhuman. This study aims to determine whether reducing realism consistency in visual features increases the uncanny valley effect. In three rounds of experiments, 548 participants categorized and rated humans, animals, and objects that varied from computer animated to real. Two sets of features were manipulated to reduce realism consistency. (For humans, the sets were eyes-eyelashes-mouth and skin-nose-eyebrows.) Reducing realism consistency caused humans and animals, but not objects, to appear eerier and colder. However, the predictions of a competing theory, proposed by Ernst Jentsch in 1906, were not supported: The most ambiguous representations-those eliciting the greatest category uncertainty-were neither the eeriest nor the coldest. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. A universal reduced glass transition temperature for liquids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedors, R. F.

    1979-01-01

    Data on the dependence of the glass transition temperature on the molecular structure for low-molecular-weight liquids are analyzed in order to determine whether Boyer's reduced glass transition temperature (1952) is a universal constant as proposed. It is shown that the Boyer ratio varies widely depending on the chemical nature of the molecule. It is pointed out that a characteristic temperature ratio, defined by the ratio of the sum of the melting temperature and the boiling temperature to the sum of the glass transition temperature and the boiling temperature, is a universal constant independent of the molecular structure of the liquid. The average value of the ratio obtained from data for 65 liquids is 1.15.

  12. How uncertainty analysis of streamflow data can reduce costs and promote robust decisions in water management applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Hilary; Seibert, Jan; Petersen-Overleir, Asgeir; Lang, Michel; White, Paul; Snelder, Ton; Rutherford, Kit; Krueger, Tobias; Mason, Robert; Kiang, Julie

    2017-07-01

    Streamflow data are used for important environmental and economic decisions, such as specifying and regulating minimum flows, managing water supplies, and planning for flood hazards. Despite significant uncertainty in most flow data, the flow series for these applications are often communicated and used without uncertainty information. In this commentary, we argue that proper analysis of uncertainty in river flow data can reduce costs and promote robust conclusions in water management applications. We substantiate our argument by providing case studies from Norway and New Zealand where streamflow uncertainty analysis has uncovered economic costs in the hydropower industry, improved public acceptance of a controversial water management policy, and tested the accuracy of water quality trends. We discuss the need for practical uncertainty assessment tools that generate multiple flow series realizations rather than simple error bounds. Although examples of such tools are in development, considerable barriers for uncertainty analysis and communication still exist for practitioners, and future research must aim to provide easier access and usability of uncertainty estimates. We conclude that flow uncertainty analysis is critical for good water management decisions.

  13. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  14. Application of stochastic programming to reduce uncertainty in quality-based supply planning of slaughterhouses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijpkema, W.A.; Hendrix, E.M.T.; Rossi, R.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

    2016-01-01

    To match products of different quality with end market preferences under supply uncertainty, it is crucial to integrate product quality information in logistics decision making. We present a case of this integration in a meat processing company that faces uncertainty in delivered livestock quality.

  15. Uncertainty relations and reduced density matrices: Mapping many-body quantum mechanics onto four particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazziotti, David A.; Erdahl, Robert M.

    2001-04-01

    For the description of ground-state correlation phenomena an accurate mapping of many-body quantum mechanics onto four particles is developed. The energy for a quantum system with no more than two-particle interactions may be expressed in terms of a two-particle reduced density matrix (2-RDM), but variational optimization of the 2-RDM requires that it corresponds to an N-particle wave function. We derive N-representability conditions on the 2-RDM that guarantee the validity of the uncertainty relations for all operators with two-particle interactions. One of these conditions is shown to be necessary and sufficient to make the RDM solutions of the dispersion condition equivalent to those from the contracted Schrödinger equation (CSE) [Mazziotti, Phys. Rev. A 57, 4219 (1998)]. In general, the CSE is a stronger N-representability condition than the dispersion condition because the CSE implies the dispersion condition as well as additional N-representability constraints from the Hellmann-Feynman theorem. Energy minimization subject to the representability constraints is performed for a boson model with 10, 30, and 75 particles. Even when traditional wave-function methods fail at large perturbations, the present method yields correlation energies within 2%.

  16. SunShot solar power reduces costs and uncertainty in future low-carbon electricity systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mileva, Ana; Nelson, James H; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel M

    2013-08-20

    The United States Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative has set cost-reduction targets of $1/watt for central-station solar technologies. We use SWITCH, a high-resolution electricity system planning model, to study the implications of achieving these targets for technology deployment and electricity costs in western North America, focusing on scenarios limiting carbon emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. We find that achieving the SunShot target for solar photovoltaics would allow this technology to provide more than a third of electric power in the region, displacing natural gas in the medium term and reducing the need for nuclear and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies, which face technological and cost uncertainties, by 2050. We demonstrate that a diverse portfolio of technological options can help integrate high levels of solar generation successfully and cost-effectively. The deployment of GW-scale storage plays a central role in facilitating solar deployment and the availability of flexible loads could increase the solar penetration level further. In the scenarios investigated, achieving the SunShot target can substantially mitigate the cost of implementing a carbon cap, decreasing power costs by up to 14% and saving up to $20 billion ($2010) annually by 2050 relative to scenarios with Reference solar costs.

  17. Tailored complex degree of mutual coherence for plane-of-interest interferometry with reduced measurement uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fütterer, G.

    2017-10-01

    A problem of interferometers is the elimination of parasitic reflections. Parasitic reflections and modulated intensity signals, which are not related to the reference surface (REF) or the surface under test (SUT) in a direct way, can increase the measurement uncertainty significantly. In some situations standard methods might be used in order to eliminate reflections from the backside of the optical element under test. For instance, match the test object to an absorber, while taking the complex refractive index into account, can cancel out back reflections completely. This causes additional setup time and chemical contamination. In some situations an angular offset might be combined with an aperture stop. This reduces spatial resolution and it does not work if the disturbing wave field propagates in the same direction as the wave field, which propagates from the SUT. However, a stack of surfaces is a problem. An increased spectral bandwidth might be used in order to obtain a separation of the plane-of-interest from other planes. Depending on the interferometer used, this might require an optical path difference of zero or it might cause a reduction of the visibility to V embodiment of a modified interferometer, will be discussed.

  18. Strategies for Reduced-Order Models in Uncertainty Quantification of Complex Turbulent Dynamical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Di

    Turbulent dynamical systems are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in turbulent dynamical systems is a grand challenge where the goal is to obtain statistical estimates for key physical quantities. In the development of a proper UQ scheme for systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities, significant model errors compared with the true natural signal are always unavoidable due to both the imperfect understanding of the underlying physical processes and the limited computational resources available. One central issue in contemporary research is the development of a systematic methodology for reduced order models that can recover the crucial features both with model fidelity in statistical equilibrium and with model sensitivity in response to perturbations. In the first part, we discuss a general mathematical framework to construct statistically accurate reduced-order models that have skill in capturing the statistical variability in the principal directions of a general class of complex systems with quadratic nonlinearity. A systematic hierarchy of simple statistical closure schemes, which are built through new global statistical energy conservation principles combined with statistical equilibrium fidelity, are designed and tested for UQ of these problems. Second, the capacity of imperfect low-order stochastic approximations to model extreme events in a passive scalar field advected by turbulent flows is investigated. The effects in complicated flow systems are considered including strong nonlinear and non-Gaussian interactions, and much simpler and cheaper imperfect models with model error are constructed to capture the crucial statistical features in the stationary tracer field. Several mathematical ideas are introduced to improve the prediction skill of the imperfect reduced-order models. Most importantly, empirical information theory and statistical linear response theory are

  19. Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWeber, Jefferson T.; Wagner, Tyler

    2018-01-01

    Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30‐day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species’ distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold‐water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid‐century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation

  20. Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWeber, Jefferson T; Wagner, Tyler

    2018-06-01

    Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30-day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species' distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold-water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid-century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation actions. Our

  1. Forecasting the Number of Soil Samples Required to Reduce Remediation Cost Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Demougeot-Renard, Hélène; de Fouquet, Chantal; Renard, Philippe

    2008-01-01

    Sampling scheme design is an important step in the management of polluted sites. It largely controls the accuracy of remediation cost estimates. In practice, however, sampling is seldom designed to comply with a given level of remediation cost uncertainty. In this paper, we present a new technique that allows one to estimate of the number of samples that should be taken at a given stage of investigation to reach a forecasted level of accuracy. The uncertainty is expressed both in terms of vol...

  2. Reducing Dose Uncertainty for Spot-Scanning Proton Beam Therapy of Moving Tumors by Optimizing the Spot Delivery Sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Heng; Zhu, X. Ronald; Zhang, Xiaodong

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To develop and validate a novel delivery strategy for reducing the respiratory motion–induced dose uncertainty of spot-scanning proton therapy. Methods and Materials: The spot delivery sequence was optimized to reduce dose uncertainty. The effectiveness of the delivery sequence optimization was evaluated using measurements and patient simulation. One hundred ninety-one 2-dimensional measurements using different delivery sequences of a single-layer uniform pattern were obtained with a detector array on a 1-dimensional moving platform. Intensity modulated proton therapy plans were generated for 10 lung cancer patients, and dose uncertainties for different delivery sequences were evaluated by simulation. Results: Without delivery sequence optimization, the maximum absolute dose error can be up to 97.2% in a single measurement, whereas the optimized delivery sequence results in a maximum absolute dose error of ≤11.8%. In patient simulation, the optimized delivery sequence reduces the mean of fractional maximum absolute dose error compared with the regular delivery sequence by 3.3% to 10.6% (32.5-68.0% relative reduction) for different patients. Conclusions: Optimizing the delivery sequence can reduce dose uncertainty due to respiratory motion in spot-scanning proton therapy, assuming the 4-dimensional CT is a true representation of the patients' breathing patterns.

  3. Association between obesity and reduced body temperature in dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccione, G; Giudice, E; Fazio, F; Refinetti, R

    2011-08-01

    Industrialized nations are currently experiencing an obesity epidemic, the causes of which are not fully known. One possible mechanism of enhanced energy efficiency that has received almost no attention is a reduction in the metabolic cost of homeothermy, which could be achieved by a modest lowering of body core temperature. We evaluated the potential of this obesity-inducing mechanism in a canine model of the metabolic syndrome. We compared the rectal temperature of lean dogs and obese dogs by (a) conducting cross-sectional measurements in 287 dogs of many breeds varying greatly in body size, (b) conducting longitudinal measurements in individual dogs over 7-10 years and (c) tracking rectal temperature of lean and obese dogs at 3-h intervals for 48 consecutive hours in the laboratory. We found that larger dogs have lower rectal temperatures than smaller dogs and that, for the same body mass, obese dogs have lower rectal temperatures than lean dogs. The results were consistent in the cross-sectional, longitudinal and around-the-clock measurements. These findings document an association between obesity and reduced body temperature in dogs and support the hypothesis that obesity in this and other species of homeotherms may result from an increase in metabolic efficiency achieved by a regulated lowering of body temperature.

  4. Reconstruction of regional mean temperature for East Asia since 1900s and its uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, W.

    2017-12-01

    Regional average surface air temperature (SAT) is one of the key variables often used to investigate climate change. Unfortunately, because of the limited observations over East Asia, there were also some gaps in the observation data sampling for regional mean SAT analysis, which was important to estimate past climate change. In this study, the regional average temperature of East Asia since 1900s is calculated by the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF)-based optimal interpolation (OA) method with considering the data errors. The results show that our estimate is more precise and robust than the results from simple average, which provides a better way for past climate reconstruction. In addition to the reconstructed regional average SAT anomaly time series, we also estimated uncertainties of reconstruction. The root mean square error (RMSE) results show that the the error decreases with respect to time, and are not sufficiently large to alter the conclusions on the persist warming in East Asia during twenty-first century. Moreover, the test of influence of data error on reconstruction clearly shows the sensitivity of reconstruction to the size of the data error.

  5. Reduced dose uncertainty in MRI-based polymer gel dosimetry using parallel RF transmission with multiple RF sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sang-Young Kim; Jung-Hoon Lee; Jin-Young Jung; Do-Wan Lee; Seu-Ran Lee; Bo-Young Choe; Hyeon-Man Baek; Korea University of Science and Technology, Daejeon; Dae-Hyun Kim; Jung-Whan Min; Ji-Yeon Park

    2014-01-01

    In this work, we present the feasibility of using a parallel RF transmit with multiple RF sources imaging method (MultiTransmit imaging) in polymer gel dosimetry. Image quality and B 1 field homogeneity was statistically better in the MultiTransmit imaging method than in conventional single source RF transmission imaging method. In particular, the standard uncertainty of R 2 was lower on the MultiTransmit images than on the conventional images. Furthermore, the MultiTransmit measurement showed improved dose resolution. Improved image quality and B 1 homogeneity results in reduced dose uncertainty, thereby suggesting the feasibility of MultiTransmit MR imaging in gel dosimetry. (author)

  6. Use of Paired Simple and Complex Models to Reduce Predictive Bias and Quantify Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doherty, John; Christensen, Steen

    2011-01-01

    -constrained uncertainty analysis. Unfortunately, however, many system and process details on which uncertainty may depend are, by design, omitted from simple models. This can lead to underestimation of the uncertainty associated with many predictions of management interest. The present paper proposes a methodology...... of these details born of the necessity for model outputs to replicate observations of historical system behavior. In contrast, the rapid run times and general numerical reliability of simple models often promulgates good calibration and ready implementation of sophisticated methods of calibration...... that attempts to overcome the problems associated with complex models on the one hand and simple models on the other hand, while allowing access to the benefits each of them offers. It provides a theoretical analysis of the simplification process from a subspace point of view, this yielding insights...

  7. Simulations of dimensionally reduced effective theories of high temperature QCD

    CERN Document Server

    Hietanen, Ari

    Quantum chromodynamics (QCD) is the theory describing interaction between quarks and gluons. At low temperatures, quarks are confined forming hadrons, e.g. protons and neutrons. However, at extremely high temperatures the hadrons break apart and the matter transforms into plasma of individual quarks and gluons. In this theses the quark gluon plasma (QGP) phase of QCD is studied using lattice techniques in the framework of dimensionally reduced effective theories EQCD and MQCD. Two quantities are in particular interest: the pressure (or grand potential) and the quark number susceptibility. At high temperatures the pressure admits a generalised coupling constant expansion, where some coefficients are non-perturbative. We determine the first such contribution of order g^6 by performing lattice simulations in MQCD. This requires high precision lattice calculations, which we perform with different number of colors N_c to obtain N_c-dependence on the coefficient. The quark number susceptibility is studied by perf...

  8. CLIMB - Climate induced changes on the hydrology of mediterranean basins - Reducing uncertainties and quantifying risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2010-05-01

    According to future climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources. Threats include severe droughts and extreme flooding, salinization of coastal aquifers, degradation of fertile soils and desertification due to poor and unsustainable water management practices. It can be foreseen that, unless appropriate adaptation measures are undertaken, the changes in the hydrologic cycle will give rise to an increasing potential for tension and conflict among the political and economic actors in this vulnerable region. The presented project initiative CLIMB, funded under EC's 7th Framework Program (FP7-ENV-2009-1), has started in January 2010. In its 4-year design, it shall analyze ongoing and future climate induced changes in hydrological budgets and extremes across the Mediterranean and neighboring regions. This is undertaken in study sites located in Sardinia, Northern Italy, Southern France, Tunisia, Egypt and the Palestinian-administered area Gaza. The work plan is targeted to selected river or aquifer catchments, where the consortium will employ a combination of novel field monitoring and remote sensing concepts, data assimilation, integrated hydrologic (and biophysical) modeling and socioeconomic factor analyses to reduce existing uncertainties in climate change impact analysis. Advanced climate scenario analysis will be employed and available ensembles of regional climate model simulations will be downscaling. This process will provide the drivers for an ensemble of hydro(-geo)logical models with different degrees of complexity in terms of process description and level of integration. The results of hydrological modeling and socio-economic factor analysis will enable the development of a GIS-based Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool. This tool will serve as a platform

  9. The National Ecosystem Services Classification System: A Framework for Identifying and Reducing Relevant Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, C. R.; Sinha, P.; Amanda, N.

    2013-12-01

    In recent years the gap between what scientists know and what policymakers should appreciate in environmental decision making has received more attention, as the costs of the disconnect have become more apparent to both groups. Particularly for water-related policies, the EPA's Office of Water has struggled with benefit estimates held low by the inability to quantify ecological and economic effects that theory, modeling, and anecdotal or isolated case evidence suggest may prove to be larger. Better coordination with ecologists and hydrologists is being explored as a solution. The ecosystem services (ES) concept now nearly two decades old links ecosystem functions and processes to the human value system. But there remains no clear mapping of which ecosystem goods and services affect which individual or economic values. The National Ecosystem Services Classification System (NESCS, 'nexus') project brings together ecologists, hydrologists, and social scientists to do this mapping for aquatic and other ecosystem service-generating systems. The objective is to greatly reduce the uncertainty in water-related policy making by mapping and ultimately quantifying the various functions and products of aquatic systems, as well as how changes to aquatic systems impact the human economy and individual levels of non-monetary appreciation for those functions and products. Primary challenges to fostering interaction between scientists, social scientists, and policymakers are lack of a common vocabulary, and the need for a cohesive comprehensive framework that organizes concepts across disciplines and accommodates scientific data from a range of sources. NESCS builds the vocabulary and the framework so both may inform a scalable transdisciplinary policy-making application. This talk presents for discussion the process and progress in developing both this vocabulary and a classifying framework capable of bridging the gap between a newer but existing ecosystem services classification

  10. Improving Chemical EOR Simulations and Reducing the Subsurface Uncertainty Using Downscaling Conditioned to Tracer Data

    KAUST Repository

    Torrealba, Victor A.

    2017-10-02

    distributions as soft data. The method honors the fluid material balance and geological features from the coarse model. A workflow is outlined to address uncertainties in geological properties that can be reduced by integrating dynamic data such as sweep efficiency from interwell tracers. We provide several test cases and demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method to improve the history-match of a chemical EOR pilot. Further, we evaluate the fitness of different heterogeneity measures for grid-ranking of CEOR processes.

  11. Using FOSM-Based Data Worth Analyses to Design Geophysical Surveys to Reduce Uncertainty in a Regional Groundwater Model Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, B. D.; White, J.; Kress, W. H.; Clark, B. R.; Barlow, J.

    2016-12-01

    Hydrogeophysical surveys have become an integral part of understanding hydrogeological frameworks used in groundwater models. Regional models cover a large area where water well data is, at best, scattered and irregular. Since budgets are finite, priorities must be assigned to select optimal areas for geophysical surveys. For airborne electromagnetic (AEM) geophysical surveys, optimization of mapping depth and line spacing needs to take in account the objectives of the groundwater models. The approach discussed here uses a first-order, second-moment (FOSM) uncertainty analyses which assumes an approximate linear relation between model parameters and observations. This assumption allows FOSM analyses to be applied to estimate the value of increased parameter knowledge to reduce forecast uncertainty. FOSM is used to facilitate optimization of yet-to-be-completed geophysical surveying to reduce model forecast uncertainty. The main objective of geophysical surveying is assumed to estimate values and spatial variation in hydrologic parameters (i.e. hydraulic conductivity) as well as map lower permeability layers that influence the spatial distribution of recharge flux. The proposed data worth analysis was applied to Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS) which is being updated. The objective of MERAS is to assess the ground-water availability (status and trends) of the Mississippi embayment aquifer system. The study area covers portions of eight states including Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. The active model grid covers approximately 70,000 square miles, and incorporates some 6,000 miles of major rivers and over 100,000 water wells. In the FOSM analysis, a dense network of pilot points was used to capture uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity and recharge. To simulate the effect of AEM flight lines, the prior uncertainty for hydraulic conductivity and recharge pilots along potential flight lines was

  12. Reducing uncertainty of Monte Carlo estimated fatigue damage in offshore wind turbines using FORM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    H. Horn, Jan-Tore; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2016-01-01

    Uncertainties related to fatigue damage estimation of non-linear systems are highly dependent on the tail behaviour and extreme values of the stress range distribution. By using a combination of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the accuracy of the fatigue...

  13. A fractional factorial probabilistic collocation method for uncertainty propagation of hydrologic model parameters in a reduced dimensional space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Huang, W.; Fan, Y. R.; Li, Z.

    2015-10-01

    In this study, a fractional factorial probabilistic collocation method is proposed to reveal statistical significance of hydrologic model parameters and their multi-level interactions affecting model outputs, facilitating uncertainty propagation in a reduced dimensional space. The proposed methodology is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed in China to demonstrate its validity and applicability, as well as its capability of revealing complex and dynamic parameter interactions. A set of reduced polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) only with statistically significant terms can be obtained based on the results of factorial analysis of variance (ANOVA), achieving a reduction of uncertainty in hydrologic predictions. The predictive performance of reduced PCEs is verified by comparing against standard PCEs and the Monte Carlo with Latin hypercube sampling (MC-LHS) method in terms of reliability, sharpness, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Results reveal that the reduced PCEs are able to capture hydrologic behaviors of the Xiangxi River watershed, and they are efficient functional representations for propagating uncertainties in hydrologic predictions.

  14. Reducing, Maintaining, or Escalating Uncertainty? The Development and Validation of Four Uncertainty Preference Scales Related to Cancer Information Seeking and Avoidance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carcioppolo, Nick; Yang, Fan; Yang, Qinghua

    2016-09-01

    Uncertainty is a central characteristic of many aspects of cancer prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment. Brashers's (2001) uncertainty management theory details the multifaceted nature of uncertainty and describes situations in which uncertainty can both positively and negatively affect health outcomes. The current study extends theory on uncertainty management by developing four scale measures of uncertainty preferences in the context of cancer. Two national surveys were conducted to validate the scales and assess convergent and concurrent validity. Results support the factor structure of each measure and provide general support across multiple validity assessments. These scales can advance research on uncertainty and cancer communication by providing researchers with measures that address multiple aspects of uncertainty management.

  15. High Temperature Thermosetting Polyimide Nanocomposites Prepared with Reduced Charge Organoclay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Sandi; Liang, Margaret I.

    2005-01-01

    The naturally occurring sodium and calcium cations found in bentonite clay galleries were exchanged with lithium cations. Following the cation exchange, a series of reduced charge clays were prepared by heat treatment of the lithium bentonite at 130 C, 150 C, or 170 C. Inductively coupled plasma (ICP) analysis showed that heating the lithium clay at elevated temperatures reduced its cation exchange capacity. Ion exchange of heat-treated clays with either a protonated alkyl amine or a protonated aromatic diamine resulted in decreasing amounts of the organic modifier incorporated into the lithium clay. The level of silicate dispersion in a thermosetting polyimide matrix was dependent upon the temperature of Li-clay heat treatment as well as the organic modification. In general, clays treated at 150 C or 170 C, and exchanged with protonated octadcylamine or protonated 2,2'-dimethlybenzidine (DMBZ) showed a higher degree of dispersion than clays treated at 130 C, or exchanged with protonated dodecylamine. Dynamic mechanical analysis showed little change in the storage modulus or T(sub g) of the nanocomposites compared to the base resin. However, long term isothermal aging of the samples showed a significant decrease in the resin oxidative weight loss. Nanocomposite samples aged in air for 1000 hours at 288 C showed of to a decrease in weight loss compared to that of the base resin. This again was dependent on the temperature at which the Li-clay was heated and the choice of organic modification.

  16. Blockchain to Rule the Waves - Nascent Design Principles for Reducing Risk and Uncertainty in Decentralized Environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nærland, Kristoffer; Müller-Bloch, Christoph; Beck, Roman

    2017-01-01

    Many decentralized, inter-organizational environments such as supply chains are characterized by high transactional uncertainty and risk. At the same time, blockchain technology promises to mitigate these issues by introducing certainty into economic transactions. This paper discusses the findings...... of a Design Science Research project involving the construction and evaluation of an information technology artifact in collaboration with Maersk, a leading international shipping company, where central documents in shipping, such as the Bill of Lading, are turned into a smart contract on blockchain. Based...... on our insights from the project, we provide first evidence for preliminary design principles for applications that aim to mitigate the transactional risk and uncertainty in decentralized environments using blockchain. Both the artifact and the first evidence for emerging design principles are novel...

  17. Blockchain to Rule the Waves - Nascent Design Principles for Reducing Risk and Uncertainty in Decentralized Environments

    OpenAIRE

    Nærland, Kristoffer; Müller-Bloch, Christoph; Beck, Roman; Palmund, Søren

    2017-01-01

    Many decentralized, inter-organizational environments such as supply chains are characterized by high transactional uncertainty and risk. At the same time, blockchain technology promises to mitigate these issues by introducing certainty into economic transactions. This paper discusses the findings of a Design Science Research project involving the construction and evaluation of an information technology artifact in collaboration with Maersk, a leading international shipping company, where cen...

  18. Reducing uncertainty in wind turbine blade health inspection with image processing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Huiyi

    Structural health inspection has been widely applied in the operation of wind farms to find early cracks in wind turbine blades (WTBs). Increased numbers of turbines and expanded rotor diameters are driving up the workloads and safety risks for site employees. Therefore, it is important to automate the inspection process as well as minimize the uncertainties involved in routine blade health inspection. In addition, crack documentation and trending is vital to assess rotor blade and turbine reliability in the 20 year designed life span. A new crack recognition and classification algorithm is described that can support automated structural health inspection of the surface of large composite WTBs. The first part of the study investigated the feasibility of digital image processing in WTB health inspection and defined the capability of numerically detecting cracks as small as hairline thickness. The second part of the study identified and analyzed the uncertainty of the digital image processing method. A self-learning algorithm was proposed to recognize and classify cracks without comparing a blade image to a library of crack images. The last part of the research quantified the uncertainty in the field conditions and the image processing methods.

  19. A programme of research to set priorities and reduce uncertainties for the prevention and treatment of skin disease

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas, K. S.; Batchelor, J. M.; Bath-Hextall, F.; Chalmers, J. R.; Clarke, T.; Crowe, S.; Delamere, F. M.; Eleftheriadou, V.; Evans, N.; Firkins, L.; Greenlaw, N.; Lansbury, L.; Lawton, S.; Layfield, C.; Leonardi-Bee, J.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Skin diseases are very common and can have a large impact on the quality of life of patients and caregivers. This programme addressed four diseases: (1) eczema, (2) vitiligo, (3) squamous cell skin cancer (SCC) and (4) pyoderma gangrenosum (PG). OBJECTIVE: To set priorities and reduce uncertainties for the treatment and prevention of skin disease in our four chosen diseases. DESIGN: Mixed methods including eight systematic reviews, three prioritisation exercises, tw...

  20. Use of Atmospheric Budget to Reduce Uncertainty in Estimated Water Availability over South Asia from Different Reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian, Dawn Emil; Pathak, Amey; Ghosh, Subimal

    2016-07-01

    Disagreements across different reanalyses over South Asia result into uncertainty in assessment of water availability, which is computed as the difference between Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (P-E). Here, we compute P-E directly from atmospheric budget with divergence of moisture flux for different reanalyses and find improved correlation with observed values of P-E, acquired from station and satellite data. We also find reduced closure terms for water cycle computed with atmospheric budget, analysed over South Asian landmass, when compared to that obtained with individual values of P and E. The P-E value derived with atmospheric budget is more consistent with energy budget, when we use top-of-atmosphere radiation for the same. For analysing water cycle, we use runoff from Global Land Data Assimilation System, and water storage from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment. We find improvements in agreements across different reanalyses, in terms of inter-annual cross correlation when atmospheric budget is used to estimate P-E and hence, emphasize to use the same for estimations of water availability in South Asia to reduce uncertainty. Our results on water availability with reduced uncertainty over highly populated monsoon driven South Asia will be useful for water management and agricultural decision making.

  1. Use of Atmospheric Budget to Reduce Uncertainty in Estimated Water Availability over South Asia from Different Reanalyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian, Dawn Emil; Pathak, Amey; Ghosh, Subimal

    2016-07-08

    Disagreements across different reanalyses over South Asia result into uncertainty in assessment of water availability, which is computed as the difference between Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (P-E). Here, we compute P-E directly from atmospheric budget with divergence of moisture flux for different reanalyses and find improved correlation with observed values of P-E, acquired from station and satellite data. We also find reduced closure terms for water cycle computed with atmospheric budget, analysed over South Asian landmass, when compared to that obtained with individual values of P and E. The P-E value derived with atmospheric budget is more consistent with energy budget, when we use top-of-atmosphere radiation for the same. For analysing water cycle, we use runoff from Global Land Data Assimilation System, and water storage from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment. We find improvements in agreements across different reanalyses, in terms of inter-annual cross correlation when atmospheric budget is used to estimate P-E and hence, emphasize to use the same for estimations of water availability in South Asia to reduce uncertainty. Our results on water availability with reduced uncertainty over highly populated monsoon driven South Asia will be useful for water management and agricultural decision making.

  2. Reducing greenhouses and the temperature history of earth and Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagan, C.

    1977-01-01

    It has been suggested that NH3 and other reducing gases were present in the earth's primitive atmosphere, enhancing the global greenhouse effect; data obtained through isotopic archeothermometry support this hypothesis. Computations have been applied to the evolution of surface temperatures on Mars, considering various bolometric albedos and compositions. The results are of interest in the study of Martian sinuous channels which may have been created by aqueous fluvial errosion, and imply that clement conditions may have previously occurred on Mars, and may occur in the future.

  3. Reduced density matrix functional theory at finite temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldsiefen, Tim

    2012-10-15

    Density functional theory (DFT) is highly successful in many fields of research. There are, however, areas in which its performance is rather limited. An important example is the description of thermodynamical variables of a quantum system in thermodynamical equilibrium. Although the finite-temperature version of DFT (FT-DFT) rests on a firm theoretical basis and is only one year younger than its brother, groundstate DFT, it has been successfully applied to only a few problems. Because FT-DFT, like DFT, is in principle exact, these shortcomings can be attributed to the difficulties of deriving valuable functionals for FT-DFT. In this thesis, we are going to present an alternative theoretical description of quantum systems in thermal equilibrium. It is based on the 1-reduced density matrix (1RDM) of the system, rather than on its density and will rather cumbersomly be called finite-temperature reduced density matrix functional theory (FT-RDMFT). Its zero-temperature counterpart (RDMFT) proved to be successful in several fields, formerly difficult to address via DFT. These fields include, for example, the calculation of dissociation energies or the calculation of the fundamental gap, also for Mott insulators. This success is mainly due to the fact that the 1RDM carries more directly accessible ''manybody'' information than the density alone, leading for example to an exact description of the kinetic energy functional. This sparks the hope that a description of thermodynamical systems employing the 1RDM via FT-RDMFT can yield an improvement over FT-DFT. Giving a short review of RDMFT and pointing out difficulties when describing spin-polarized systems initiates our work. We then lay the theoretical framework for FT-RDMFT by proving the required Hohenberg-Kohn-like theorems, investigating and determining the domain of FT-RDMFT functionals and by deriving several properties of the exact functional. Subsequently, we present a perturbative method to

  4. Reduced density matrix functional theory at finite temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldsiefen, Tim

    2012-10-01

    Density functional theory (DFT) is highly successful in many fields of research. There are, however, areas in which its performance is rather limited. An important example is the description of thermodynamical variables of a quantum system in thermodynamical equilibrium. Although the finite-temperature version of DFT (FT-DFT) rests on a firm theoretical basis and is only one year younger than its brother, groundstate DFT, it has been successfully applied to only a few problems. Because FT-DFT, like DFT, is in principle exact, these shortcomings can be attributed to the difficulties of deriving valuable functionals for FT-DFT. In this thesis, we are going to present an alternative theoretical description of quantum systems in thermal equilibrium. It is based on the 1-reduced density matrix (1RDM) of the system, rather than on its density and will rather cumbersomly be called finite-temperature reduced density matrix functional theory (FT-RDMFT). Its zero-temperature counterpart (RDMFT) proved to be successful in several fields, formerly difficult to address via DFT. These fields include, for example, the calculation of dissociation energies or the calculation of the fundamental gap, also for Mott insulators. This success is mainly due to the fact that the 1RDM carries more directly accessible ''manybody'' information than the density alone, leading for example to an exact description of the kinetic energy functional. This sparks the hope that a description of thermodynamical systems employing the 1RDM via FT-RDMFT can yield an improvement over FT-DFT. Giving a short review of RDMFT and pointing out difficulties when describing spin-polarized systems initiates our work. We then lay the theoretical framework for FT-RDMFT by proving the required Hohenberg-Kohn-like theorems, investigating and determining the domain of FT-RDMFT functionals and by deriving several properties of the exact functional. Subsequently, we present a perturbative method to iteratively construct

  5. Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

    2013-01-15

    The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to

  6. Uncertainties in radioecological assessment models-Their nature and approaches to reduce them

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, G.; Steiner, M.

    2008-01-01

    Radioecological assessment models are necessary tools for estimating the radiation exposure of humans and non-human biota. This paper focuses on factors affecting their predictive accuracy, discusses the origin and nature of the different contributions to uncertainty and variability and presents approaches to separate and quantify them. The key role of the conceptual model, notably in relation to its structure and complexity, as well as the influence of the number and type of input parameters, are highlighted. Guidelines are provided to improve the degree of reliability of radioecological models

  7. Reducing uncertainty in sustainable interpersonal service relationships: the role of aesthetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xenakis, Ioannis

    2018-05-01

    Sustainable interpersonal service relationships (SISRs) are the outcome of a design process that supports situated meaningful interactions between those being served and those in service. Service design is not just directed to simply satisfy the ability to perceive the psychological state of others, but more importantly, it should aim at preserving these relationships in relation to the contextual requirements that they functionally need, in order to be or remain sustainable. However, SISRs are uncertain since they have many possibilities to be in error in the sense that the constructed, situated meanings may finally be proven unsuccessful for the anticipations and the goals of those people engaged in a SISR. The endeavor of this paper is to show that aesthetic behavior plays a crucial role in the reduction of the uncertainty that characterizes such relationships. Aesthetic behavior, as an organized network of affective and cognitive processes, has an anticipatory evaluative function with a strong influence on perception by providing significance and value for those aspects in SISRs that exhibit many possibilities to serve goals that correspond to sustainable challenges. Thus, aesthetic behavior plays an important role in the construction of meanings that are related to both empathic and contextual aspects that constitute the entire situation in which a SISR takes place. Aesthetic behavior has a strong influence in meaning-making, motivating the selection of actions that contribute to our initial goal of interacting with uncertainty, to make the world a bit less puzzling and, thus, to improve our lives, or in other words, to design.

  8. Reducing greenhouses and the temperature history of Earth and Mars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagan, C.

    1977-01-01

    The modern theory of stellar evolution implies that the Sun has increased in brightness by several tens per cent over geological time. Were all other global parameters held constant, this would imply that the mean temperature of the Earth was below the freezing point of seawater about 2 x 10 9 yr ago. There is, however, excellent geological and palaeontological evidence that there were extensive bodies of liquid water on the Earth between 3 and 4 x 10 9 yr ago. A possible solution to this puzzle is that the Earth's primitive atmosphere contained small quantities of NH 3 and other reducing gases which significantly enhanced the global 'greenhouse' effect. Cosmochemical considerations point strongly to a higher abundance of reduced constituents in the primitive than in the contemporary terrestrial atmosphere; and reduced atmospheric components such as NH 3 and CH 4 are required to understand the accumulation of prebiological organic compounds necessary for the origin of life between 3 and 4 x 10 9 yr ago. Similar arguments may apply to Mars. (author)

  9. Reducing greenhouses and the temperature history of Earth and Mars

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sagan, C [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, N.Y. (USA). Lab. for Planetary Studies

    1977-09-15

    The modern theory of stellar evolution implies that the Sun has increased in brightness by several tens per cent over geological time. Were all other global parameters held constant, this would imply that the mean temperature of the Earth was below the freezing point of seawater about 2 x 10/sup 9/ yr ago. There is, however, excellent geological and palaeontological evidence that there were extensive bodies of liquid water on the Earth between 3 and 4 x 10/sup 9/ yr ago. A possible solution to this puzzle is that the Earth's primitive atmosphere contained small quantities of NH/sub 3/ and other reducing gases which significantly enhanced the global 'greenhouse' effect. Cosmochemical considerations point strongly to a higher abundance of reduced constituents in the primitive than in the contemporary terrestrial atmosphere; and reduced atmospheric components such as NH/sub 3/ and CH/sub 4/ are required to understand the accumulation of prebiological organic compounds necessary for the origin of life between 3 and 4 x 10/sup 9/ yr ago. Similar arguments may apply to Mars.

  10. Crossing Science-Policy-Societal Boundaries to Reduce Scientific and Institutional Uncertainty in Small-Scale Fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Abigail M.; Rudd, Murray A.

    2016-10-01

    The governance of small-scale fisheries (SSF) is challenging due to the uncertainty, complexity, and interconnectedness of social, political, ecological, and economical processes. Conventional SSF management has focused on a centralized and top-down approach. A major criticism of conventional management is the over-reliance on `expert science' to guide decision-making and poor consideration of fishers' contextually rich knowledge. That is thought to exacerbate the already low governance potential of SSF. Integrating scientific knowledge with fishers' knowledge is increasingly popular and is often assumed to help reduce levels of biophysical and institutional uncertainties. Many projects aimed at encouraging knowledge integration have, however, been unsuccessful. Our objective in this research was to assess factors that influence knowledge integration and the uptake of integrated knowledge into policy-making. We report results from 54 semi-structured interviews with SSF researchers and practitioners from around the globe. Our analysis is framed in terms of scientific credibility, societal legitimacy, and policy saliency, and we discuss cases that have been partially or fully successful in reducing uncertainty via push-and-pull-oriented boundary crossing initiatives. Our findings suggest that two important factors affect the science-policy-societal boundary: a lack of consensus among stakeholders about what constitutes credible knowledge and institutional uncertainty resulting from shifting policies and leadership change. A lack of training for scientific leaders and an apparent `shelf-life' for community organizations highlight the importance of ongoing institutional support for knowledge integration projects. Institutional support may be enhanced through such investments, such as capacity building and specialized platforms for knowledge integration.

  11. Crossing Science-Policy-Societal Boundaries to Reduce Scientific and Institutional Uncertainty in Small-Scale Fisheries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Abigail M; Rudd, Murray A

    2016-10-01

    The governance of small-scale fisheries (SSF) is challenging due to the uncertainty, complexity, and interconnectedness of social, political, ecological, and economical processes. Conventional SSF management has focused on a centralized and top-down approach. A major criticism of conventional management is the over-reliance on 'expert science' to guide decision-making and poor consideration of fishers' contextually rich knowledge. That is thought to exacerbate the already low governance potential of SSF. Integrating scientific knowledge with fishers' knowledge is increasingly popular and is often assumed to help reduce levels of biophysical and institutional uncertainties. Many projects aimed at encouraging knowledge integration have, however, been unsuccessful. Our objective in this research was to assess factors that influence knowledge integration and the uptake of integrated knowledge into policy-making. We report results from 54 semi-structured interviews with SSF researchers and practitioners from around the globe. Our analysis is framed in terms of scientific credibility, societal legitimacy, and policy saliency, and we discuss cases that have been partially or fully successful in reducing uncertainty via push-and-pull-oriented boundary crossing initiatives. Our findings suggest that two important factors affect the science-policy-societal boundary: a lack of consensus among stakeholders about what constitutes credible knowledge and institutional uncertainty resulting from shifting policies and leadership change. A lack of training for scientific leaders and an apparent 'shelf-life' for community organizations highlight the importance of ongoing institutional support for knowledge integration projects. Institutional support may be enhanced through such investments, such as capacity building and specialized platforms for knowledge integration.

  12. Health technology assessment and primary data collection for reducing uncertainty in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goeree, Ron; Levin, Les; Chandra, Kiran; Bowen, James M; Blackhouse, Gord; Tarride, Jean-Eric; Burke, Natasha; Bischof, Matthias; Xie, Feng; O'Reilly, Daria

    2009-05-01

    Health care expenditures continue to escalate, and pressures for increased spending will continue. Health care decision makers from publicly financed systems, private insurance companies, or even from individual health care institutions, will continue to be faced with making difficult purchasing, access, and reimbursement decisions. As a result, decision makers are increasingly turning to evidence-based platforms to help control costs and make the most efficient use of existing resources. Most tools used to assist with evidence-based decision making focus on clinical outcomes. Health technology assessment (HTA) is increasing in popularity because it also considers other factors important for decision making, such as cost, social and ethical values, legal issues, and factors such as the feasibility of implementation. In some jurisdictions, HTAs have also been supplemented with primary data collection to help address uncertainty that may still exist after conducting a traditional HTA. The HTA process adopted in Ontario, Canada, is unique in that assessments are also made to determine what primary data research should be conducted and what should be collected in these studies. In this article, concerns with the traditional HTA process are discussed, followed by a description of the HTA process that has been established in Ontario, with a particular focus on the data collection program followed by the Programs for Assessment of Technology in Health Research Institute. An illustrative example is used to show how the Ontario HTA process works and the role value of information analyses plays in addressing decision uncertainty, determining research feasibility, and determining study data collection needs.

  13. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 4 Appendix C - Historical Maximum Near-Surface Air Temperature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  14. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 6 Appendix E - Historical Minimum Near-Surface Air Temperature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  15. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 2 Appendix A - Historical Near-Surface Air Temperature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  16. A review of reactor physics uncertainties and validation requirements for the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baxter, A.M.; Lane, R.K.; Hettergott, E.; Lefler, W.

    1991-01-01

    The important, safety-related, physics parameters for the low-enriched Modular High-Temperature gas-Cooled Reactor (MHTGR) such as control rod worth, shutdown margins, temperature coefficients, and reactivity worths, are considered, and estimates are presented of the uncertainties in the calculated values of these parameters. The basis for the uncertainty estimate in several of the important calculated parameters is reviewed, including the available experimental data used in obtaining these estimates. Based on this review, the additional experimental data needed to complete the validation of the methods used to calculate these parameters is presented. The role of benchmark calculations in validating MHTGR reactor physics data is also considered. (author). 10 refs, 5 figs, 3 tabs

  17. Use of screening techniques to reduce uncertainty in risk assessment at a former manufactured gas plant site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logan, C.M.; Walden, R.H.; Baker, S.R.; Pekar, Z.; LaKind, J.S.; MacFarlane, I.D.

    1995-01-01

    Preliminary analysis of risks from a former manufactured gas plant (MGP) site revealed six media associated with potential exposure pathways: soils, air, surface water, groundwater, estuarine sediments, and aquatic biota. Contaminants of concern (COCs) include polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, volatile organic hydrocarbons, metals, cyanide, and PCBs. Available chemical data, including site-specific measurements and existing data from other sources (e.g., agency monitoring programs, Chesapeake Bay Program), were evaluated for potential utility in risk assessment. Where sufficient data existed, risk calculations were performed using central tendency and reasonable maximum exposure estimates. Where site-specific data were not available, risks were estimated using conservatively high default assumptions for dose and/or exposure duration. Because of the large number of potential exposure pathways and COCs, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine which information most influences risk assessment outcome so that any additional data collection to reduce uncertainty can be cost-effectively targeted. The sensitivity analysis utilized two types of information: (1) the impact that uncertainty in risk input values has on output risk estimates, and (2) the potential improvement in key risk input values, and consequently output values, if better site-specific data were available. A decision matrix using both quantitative and qualitative information was developed to prioritize sampling strategies to minimize uncertainty in the final risk assessment

  18. Search for Expectancy-Inconsistent Information Reduces Uncertainty Better: The Role of Cognitive Capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strojny, Paweł; Kossowska, Małgorzata; Strojny, Agnieszka

    2016-01-01

    Motivation and cognitive capacity are key factors in people's everyday struggle with uncertainty. However, the exact nature of their interplay in various contexts still needs to be revealed. The presented paper reports on two experimental studies which aimed to examine the joint consequences of motivational and cognitive factors for preferences regarding incomplete information expansion. In Study 1 we demonstrate the interactional effect of motivation and cognitive capacity on information preference. High need for closure resulted in a stronger relative preference for expectancy-inconsistent information among non-depleted individuals, but the opposite among cognitively depleted ones. This effect was explained by the different informative value of questions in comparison to affirmative sentences and the potential possibility of assimilation of new information if it contradicts prior knowledge. In Study 2 we further investigated the obtained effect, showing that not only questions but also other kinds of incomplete information are subject to the same dependency. Our results support the expectation that, in face of incomplete information, motivation toward closure may be fulfilled efficiently by focusing on expectancy-inconsistent pieces of data. We discuss the obtained effect in the context of previous assumptions that high need for closure results in a simple processing style, advocating a more complex approach based on the character of the provided information.

  19. Toward Reducing Uncertainties in Biospheric Carbon Uptake in the American West: An Atmospheric Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, J. C.; Stephens, B. B.; Mallia, D.; Wu, D.; Jacobson, A. R.

    2015-12-01

    Despite the need for an understanding of terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes to account for carbon cycle feedbacks and predict future CO2 concentrations, knowledge of such fluxes at the regional scale remains poor. This is particularly true in mountainous areas, where lack of observations combined with difficulties in their interpretation lead to significant uncertainties. Yet mountainous regions are also where significant forest cover and biomass are found—areas that have the potential to serve as carbon sinks. In particular, understanding carbon fluxes in the American West is of critical importance for the U.S. carbon budget, as the large area and biomass indicate potential for carbon sequestration. However, disturbances such as drought, insect outbreak, and wildfires in this region can introduce significant perturbations to the carbon cycle and thereby affect the amount of carbon sequestered by vegetation in the Rockies. To date, there have been few atmospheric CO2 observations in the American Rockies due to a combination of difficulties associated with logistics and interpretation of the measurements in the midst of complex terrain. Among the few sites are those associated with NCAR's Regional Atmospheric Continuous CO2 Network in the Rocky Mountains (Rocky RACCOON). As CO2 observations in mountainous areas increase in the future, it is imperative that they can be properly interpreted to yield information about biospheric carbon fluxes. In this paper, we will present CO2 observations from RACCOON, along with atmospheric simulations that attempt to extract information about biospheric carbon fluxes in the Western U.S. from these observations. We show that atmospheric models can significantly misinterpret the CO2 observations, leading to large errors in the retrieved biospheric fluxes, due to erroneous atmospheric flows. Recommendations for ways to minimize such errors and properly link the CO2 concentrations to biospheric fluxes are discussed.

  20. Reducing uncertainty in personnel dosimetry calculations in the VHTR plant using MAVRIC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flaspoehler, T.; Petrovic, B.

    2013-01-01

    This work analyzes the efficacy of the MAVRIC sequence of the Scale 6.1 code package with respect to the accuracy of results and the ability to utilize large-memory, parallel machines. MAVRIC implements the hybrid FW-CADIS methodology to solve neutron and photon transport for shielding applications. Using the discrete ordinates method to solve the Boltzmann transport equation, an importance map is generated which MAVRIC then uses to bias a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation. The MAVRIC sequence is applied to generate neutron and photon dose rate distributions of improved accuracy in a model of a proposed VHTR power plant. Problems like this one, with a size on the order of magnitude of a nuclear power plant, require a prohibitive amount of memory to store complete importance maps. The issue is addressed by refining the mesh in areas around the source through the detector regions, while leaving a coarse mesh elsewhere. Additionally through the use of parallel computing, the angular flux can be expanded in higher quadrature sets, which leads to a better importance map while requiring no extra memory requirements during the Monte Carlo portion of the sequence. The final Monte Carlo simulations can be run concurrently on several machines with results combined after the fact, emulating parallelism that is not yet available in MAVRIC sequence. Using a combination of strategies, the MAVRIC sequence is shown to be able to scale across available computational resources, allowing the user to more quickly obtain Monte Carlo results with lower relative uncertainties in large, deep-penetration shielding problems. (authors)

  1. Reducing measurement uncertainty drives the use of multiple technologies for supporting metrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banke, Bill, Jr.; Archie, Charles N.; Sendelbach, Matthew; Robert, Jim; Slinkman, James A.; Kaszuba, Phil; Kontra, Rick; DeVries, Mick; Solecky, Eric P.

    2004-05-01

    Perhaps never before in semiconductor microlithography has there been such an interest in the accuracy of measurement. This interest places new demands on our in-line metrology systems as well as the supporting metrology for verification. This also puts a burden on the users and suppliers of new measurement tools, which both challenge and complement existing manufacturing metrology. The metrology community needs to respond to these challenges by using new methods to assess the fab metrologies. An important part of this assessment process is the ability to obtain accepted reference measurements as a way of determining the accuracy and Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) of an in-line critical dimension (CD). In this paper, CD can mean any critical dimension including, for example, such measures as feature height or sidewall angle. This paper describes the trade-offs of in-line metrology systems as well as the limitations of Reference Measurement Systems (RMS). Many factors influence each application such as feature shape, material properties, proximity, sampling, and critical dimension. These factors, along with the metrology probe size, interaction volume, and probe type such as e-beam, optical beam, and mechanical probe, are considered. As the size of features shrinks below 100nm some of the stalwarts of reference metrology come into question, such as the electrically determined transistor gate length. The concept of the RMS is expanded to show how multiple metrologies are needed to achieve the right balance of accuracy and sampling. This is also demonstrated for manufacturing metrology. Various comparisons of CDSEM, scatterometry, AFM, cross section SEM, electrically determined CDs, and TEM are shown. An example is given which demonstrates the importance in obtaining TMU by balancing accuracy and precision for selecting manufacturing measurement strategy and optimizing manufacturing metrology. It is also demonstrated how the necessary supporting metrology will

  2. Uncertainties in calculations of nuclear design code system for the high temperature engineering test reactor (HTTR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shindo, R.; Yamashita, K.; Murata, I.

    1991-01-01

    The nuclear design code system for the HTTR consists of one dimensional cell burnup computer code, developed in JAERI and the TWOTRAN-2 transport code. In order to satisfy related design criteria, uncertainty of the calculation was investigated by comparing the calculated and experimental results. The experiments were performed with a graphite moderated critical assembly. It was confirmed that discrepancies between calculations and experiments were small enough to be allowed in the nuclear design of HTTR. 8 refs, 6 figs

  3. How Well Does Fracture Set Characterization Reduce Uncertainty in Capture Zone Size for Wells Situated in Sedimentary Bedrock Aquifers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, A. C.; Novakowski, K. S.

    2005-12-01

    Regional groundwater flow models are rife with uncertainty. The three-dimensional flux vector fields must generally be inferred using inverse modelling from sparse measurements of hydraulic head, from measurements of hydraulic parameters at a scale that is miniscule in comparison to that of the domain, and from none to a very few measurements of recharge or discharge rate. Despite the inherent uncertainty in these models they are routinely used to delineate steady-state or time-of-travel capture zones for the purpose of wellhead protection. The latter are defined as the volume of the aquifer within which released particles will arrive at the well within the specified time and their delineation requires the additional step of dividing the magnitudes of the flux vectors by the assumed porosity to arrive at the ``average linear groundwater velocity'' vector field. Since the porosity is usually assumed constant over the domain one could be forgiven for thinking that the uncertainty introduced at this step is minor in comparison to the flow model calibration step. We consider this question when the porosity in question is fracture porosity in flat-lying sedimentary bedrock. We also consider whether or not the diffusive uptake of solute into the rock matrix which lies between the source and the production well reduces or enhances the uncertainty. To evaluate the uncertainty an aquifer cross section is conceptualized as an array of horizontal, randomly-spaced, parallel-plate fractures of random aperture, with adjacent horizontal fractures connected by vertical fractures again of random spacing and aperture. The source is assumed to be a continuous concentration (i.e. a dirichlet boundary condition) representing a leaking tank or a DNAPL pool, and the receptor is a fully pentrating well located in the down-gradient direction. In this context the time-of-travel capture zone is defined as the separation distance required such that the source does not contaminate the well

  4. Future European Temperature change uncertainties reduced by using land heat flux observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegehuis, A.I.; Teuling, A.J.; Ciais, P.; Vautard, R.; Jung, M.

    2013-01-01

    The variability of European summer climate is expected to increase in the next century due to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, likely resulting in more frequent and more extreme droughts and heatwaves. However, climate models diverge on the magnitude of these processes, due to

  5. Financial Risk Ratios and Earnings Management: Reducing Uncertainties in Shariah-compliant Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soheil Kazemian

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines whether Shariah-compliant companies practice earnings management by investigating the relationship among the risk of financial distress, leverage, and free cash flow in discretionary accruals, which function as a substitute for earnings management. This empirical research is conducted on a sample of Malaysian Shariah-compliant companies from all industries in Bursa Malaysia from 2012 to 2014. Results show that Shariah-compliant companies are highly influenced by the risk of financial distress, leverage, and free cash flow. This study argues that working as either Shariah-compliant or non-Shariah-compliant does not affect the level of earnings management through financial distress, high leverage, and free cash flow by managers. Results should be of interest to stakeholders, shareholders, and regulatory bodies (i.e., the Shariah Advisory Council and the Securities Commission that oversee the accountability of corporate financial reporting to prevent earnings management in Shariah-compliant companies. Findings can also aid relevant authorities (i.e., the Shariah Advisory Council and the Security Commission in Malaysia in overcoming or reducing problems related to earnings management. This study is one of the most significant works in Malaysia in terms of sample size and methodology. It argues that the three elements of earnings management (i.e., financial distress, high leverage, and free cash flow influence better disclosure of reported earnings.

  6. Bookending the Opportunity to Lower Wind’s LCOE by Reducing the Uncertainty Surrounding Annual Energy Production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Div.

    2017-06-01

    Reducing the performance risk surrounding a wind project can potentially lead to a lower weighted-average cost of capital (WACC), and hence a lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE), through an advantageous shift in capital structure, and possibly also a reduction in the cost of capital. Specifically, a reduction in performance risk will move the 1-year P99 annual energy production (AEP) estimate closer to the P50 AEP estimate, which in turn reduces the minimum debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) required by lenders, thereby allowing the project to be financed with a greater proportion of low-cost debt. In addition, a reduction in performance risk might also reduce the cost of one or more of the three sources of capital that are commonly used to finance wind projects: sponsor or cash equity, tax equity, and/or debt. Preliminary internal LBNL analysis of the maximum possible LCOE reduction attainable from reducing the performance risk of a wind project found a potentially significant opportunity for LCOE reduction of ~$10/MWh, by reducing the P50 DSCR to its theoretical minimum value of 1.0 (Bolinger 2015b, 2014) and by reducing the cost of sponsor equity and debt by one-third to one-half each (Bolinger 2015a, 2015b). However, with FY17 funding from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) Performance Risk, Uncertainty, and Finance (PRUF) initiative, LBNL has been revisiting this “bookending” exercise in more depth, and now believes that its earlier preliminary assessment of the LCOE reduction opportunity was overstated. This reassessment is based on two new-found understandings: (1) Due to ever-present and largely irreducible inter-annual variability (IAV) in the wind resource, the minimum required DSCR cannot possibly fall to 1.0 (on a P50 basis), and (2) A reduction in AEP uncertainty will not necessarily lead to a reduction in the cost of capital, meaning that a shift in capital structure is perhaps the best that can be expected (perhaps

  7. Signal detection in global mean temperatures after "Paris" : An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Hans; Dangendorf, Sönke; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Bregman, Bram; Petersen, Arthur C.

    2018-01-01

    In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to "hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these

  8. Synchronous temperature rate control for refrigeration with reduced energy consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Alberto Regio; Keres, Stephen L.; Kuehl, Steven J.; Litch, Andrew D.; Richmond, Peter J.; Wu, Guolian

    2015-09-22

    Methods of operation for refrigerator appliance configurations with a controller, a condenser, at least one evaporator, a compressor, and two refrigeration compartments. The configuration may be equipped with a variable-speed or variable-capacity compressor, variable speed evaporator or compartment fans, a damper, and/or a dual-temperature evaporator with a valve system to control flow of refrigerant through one or more pressure reduction devices. The methods may include synchronizing alternating cycles of cooling each compartment to a temperature approximately equal to the compartment set point temperature by operation of the compressor, fans, damper and/or valve system. The methods may also include controlling the cooling rate in one or both compartments. Refrigeration compartment cooling may begin at an interval before or after when the freezer compartment reaches its lower threshold temperature. Freezer compartment cooling may begin at an interval before or after when the freezer compartment reaches its upper threshold temperature.

  9. Synchronous temperature rate control for refrigeration with reduced energy consumption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomes, Alberto Regio; Keres, Stephen L.; Kuehl, Steven J.; Litch, Andrew D.; Richmond, Peter J.; Wu, Guolian

    2017-11-07

    Methods of operation for refrigerator appliance configurations with a controller, a condenser, at least one evaporator, a compressor, and two refrigeration compartments. The configuration may be equipped with a variable-speed or variable-capacity compressor, variable speed evaporator or compartment fans, a damper, and/or a dual-temperature evaporator with a valve system to control flow of refrigerant through one or more pressure reduction devices. The methods may include synchronizing alternating cycles of cooling each compartment to a temperature approximately equal to the compartment set point temperature by operation of the compressor, fans, damper and/or valve system. The methods may also include controlling the cooling rate in one or both compartments. Refrigeration compartment cooling may begin at an interval before or after when the freezer compartment reaches its lower threshold temperature. Freezer compartment cooling may begin at an interval before or after when the freezer compartment reaches its upper threshold temperature.

  10. A new optimization framework using genetic algorithm and artificial neural network to reduce uncertainties in petroleum reservoir models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maschio, Célio; José Schiozer, Denis

    2015-01-01

    In this article, a new optimization framework to reduce uncertainties in petroleum reservoir attributes using artificial intelligence techniques (neural network and genetic algorithm) is proposed. Instead of using the deterministic values of the reservoir properties, as in a conventional process, the parameters of the probability density function of each uncertain attribute are set as design variables in an optimization process using a genetic algorithm. The objective function (OF) is based on the misfit of a set of models, sampled from the probability density function, and a symmetry factor (which represents the distribution of curves around the history) is used as weight in the OF. Artificial neural networks are trained to represent the production curves of each well and the proxy models generated are used to evaluate the OF in the optimization process. The proposed method was applied to a reservoir with 16 uncertain attributes and promising results were obtained.

  11. Use of 2D/3D data for peak cladding temperature uncertainty studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyack, B.E.

    1988-01-01

    In August 1988, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approved the final version of a revised rule on the acceptance of emergency core cooling systems. The revised rule allows emergency core cooling system analysis based on best-estimate methods, provided uncertainties in the prediction of prescribed acceptance limits are quantified and reported. To support the revised rule, the NRC developed the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) evaluation methodology. Data from the 2D/3D program have been used in a demonstration of the CSAU methodology in two ways. First, the data were used to identify and quantify biases that are related to the implementation of selected correlations and models in the thermal-hydraulic systems code TRAC-PF1/MOD1 as it is used to calculate the demonstration transient, a large-break loss-of-coolant accident. Second, the data were used in a supportive role to provide insight into the accuracy of code calculations and to confirm conclusions that are drawn regarding specific CSAU studies. Examples are provided illustrating each of these two uses of 2D/3D data. 9 refs., 7 figs

  12. Proposed standardized definitions for vertical resolution and uncertainty in the NDACC lidar ozone and temperature algorithms - Part 2: Ozone DIAL uncertainty budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblanc, Thierry; Sica, Robert J.; van Gijsel, Joanna A. E.; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Haefele, Alexander; Trickl, Thomas; Payen, Guillaume; Liberti, Gianluigi

    2016-08-01

    A standardized approach for the definition, propagation, and reporting of uncertainty in the ozone differential absorption lidar data products contributing to the Network for the Detection for Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) database is proposed. One essential aspect of the proposed approach is the propagation in parallel of all independent uncertainty components through the data processing chain before they are combined together to form the ozone combined standard uncertainty. The independent uncertainty components contributing to the overall budget include random noise associated with signal detection, uncertainty due to saturation correction, background noise extraction, the absorption cross sections of O3, NO2, SO2, and O2, the molecular extinction cross sections, and the number densities of the air, NO2, and SO2. The expression of the individual uncertainty components and their step-by-step propagation through the ozone differential absorption lidar (DIAL) processing chain are thoroughly estimated. All sources of uncertainty except detection noise imply correlated terms in the vertical dimension, which requires knowledge of the covariance matrix when the lidar signal is vertically filtered. In addition, the covariance terms must be taken into account if the same detection hardware is shared by the lidar receiver channels at the absorbed and non-absorbed wavelengths. The ozone uncertainty budget is presented as much as possible in a generic form (i.e., as a function of instrument performance and wavelength) so that all NDACC ozone DIAL investigators across the network can estimate, for their own instrument and in a straightforward manner, the expected impact of each reviewed uncertainty component. In addition, two actual examples of full uncertainty budget are provided, using nighttime measurements from the tropospheric ozone DIAL located at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Table Mountain Facility, California, and nighttime measurements from the JPL

  13. Modelling small groundwater systems - the role of targeted field investigations and observational data in reducing model uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abesser, Corinna; Hughes, Andrew; Boon, David

    2017-04-01

    the fit between predicted and observed heads and reduction in overall model uncertainty. The impact of availability of observational data on model calibration was tested as part of this study, confirming that equifinality remains an issue despite improved system characterisation and suggesting that uncertainty relating to the distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K) within the dune system must be further reduced. This study illustrates that groundwater modelling is not linear but should be an iterative process, especially in systems where large geological uncertainties exist. It should be carried out in conjunction with field studies, i.e. not as a postscript, but as ongoing interaction. This interaction is required throughout the investigation process and is key to heuristic learning and improved system understanding. Given that the role of modelling is to raise questions as well as answer them, this study demonstrates that this applies even in small systems that are thought to be well understood. This research is funded by the UK Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC). The work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License together with an author copyright. This licence does not conflict with the regulations of the Crown Copyright.

  14. Temperature determines toxicity: Bisphenol A reduces thermal tolerance in fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, Alexander G.; Seebacher, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Bisphenol A (BPA) is a ubiquitous pollutant around the globe, but whether environmental concentrations have toxic effects remains controversial. BPA interferes with a number of nuclear receptor pathways, including several that mediate animal responses to environmental input. Because thermal acclimation is regulated by these pathways in fish, we hypothesized that the toxicity of BPA would change with ambient temperature. We exposed zebrafish (Danio rerio) to ecologically relevant and artificially high concentrations of BPA at two acclimation temperatures, and tested physiological responses at two test temperatures that corresponded to acclimation temperatures. We found ecologically relevant concentrations of BPA (20 μg l −1 ) impair swimming performance, heart rate, muscle and cardiac SERCA activity and gene expression. We show many of these responses are temperature-specific and non-monotonic. Our results suggest that BPA pollution can compound the effects of climate change, and that its effects are more dynamic than toxicological assessments currently account for. - Highlights: • Whether environmental levels of BPA have toxic effects on local ecology remains controversial. • We show that ecological concentrations of BPA impair physiological performance in fish. • We also show that the toxic effects of BPA are temperature-specific and non-monotonic with dose. • BPA pollution will likely compound the effects of climate change, and vice-versa. • The toxic effects of BPA appear to be more dynamic than toxicological assessments account for. - BPA pollution is likely to compound the effects of climate change, and climate change may worsen the effects of BPA exposure. Its effects are likely to be more dynamic than toxicological assessments currently account for

  15. Temperature extremes reduce seagrass growth and induce mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collier, C.J.; Waycott, M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Temperature extremes occur during low tide in shallow seagrass meadows. • The effects of temperature extremes were tested experimentally at 35 °C, 40 °C and 43 °C. • 40 °C was a critical threshold with a large impact on growth and mortality. • At 43 °C there was complete mortality after 2–3 days. • Lower light conditions (e.g. poor water quality) led to a greater negative impact. - Abstract: Extreme heating (up to 43 °C measured from five-year temperature records) occurs in shallow coastal seagrass meadows of the Great Barrier Reef at low tide. We measured effective quantum yield (ϕ PSII ), growth, senescence and mortality in four tropical seagrasses to experimental short-duration (2.5 h) spikes in water temperature to 35 °C, 40 °C and 43 °C, for 6 days followed by one day at ambient temperature. Increasing temperature to 35 °C had positive effects on ϕ PSII (the magnitude varied between days and was highly correlated with PPFD), with no effects on growth or mortality. 40 °C represented a critical threshold as there were strong species differences and there was a large impact on growth and mortality. At 43 °C there was complete mortality after 2–3 days. These findings indicate that increasing duration (more days in a row) of thermal events above 40 °C is likely to affect the ecological function of tropical seagrass meadows

  16. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  17. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

    2013-04-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

  18. Temperature variations as a source of uncertainty in medical fiber-coupled organic plastic scintillator dosimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buranurak, Siritorn; Andersen, Claus Erik; Beierholm, Anders Ravnsborg

    2013-01-01

    Fiber-coupled organic plastic scintillators have potential applications in medical dosimetry related to, for example, brachytherapy and external beam radiotherapy with MV photons. As medical dosimetry generally strives for high accuracy, we designed a study to assess if the light yield from...... commonly used scintillating fibers would change with temperature in the clinical range (15–40 °C). The study showed that the light yield in the peak regions of the scintillators studied decreases linearly with increasing temperature. For the blue BCF-12 and the green BCF-60 from Saint-Gobain, France we...

  19. Reducing uncertainty for estimating forest carbon stocks and dynamics using integrated remote sensing, forest inventory and process-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulter, B.; Ciais, P.; Joetzjer, E.; Maignan, F.; Luyssaert, S.; Barichivich, J.

    2015-12-01

    Accurately estimating forest biomass and forest carbon dynamics requires new integrated remote sensing, forest inventory, and carbon cycle modeling approaches. Presently, there is an increasing and urgent need to reduce forest biomass uncertainty in order to meet the requirements of carbon mitigation treaties, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+). Here we describe a new parameterization and assimilation methodology used to estimate tropical forest biomass using the ORCHIDEE-CAN dynamic global vegetation model. ORCHIDEE-CAN simulates carbon uptake and allocation to individual trees using a mechanistic representation of photosynthesis, respiration and other first-order processes. The model is first parameterized using forest inventory data to constrain background mortality rates, i.e., self-thinning, and productivity. Satellite remote sensing data for forest structure, i.e., canopy height, is used to constrain simulated forest stand conditions using a look-up table approach to match canopy height distributions. The resulting forest biomass estimates are provided for spatial grids that match REDD+ project boundaries and aim to provide carbon estimates for the criteria described in the IPCC Good Practice Guidelines Tier 3 category. With the increasing availability of forest structure variables derived from high-resolution LIDAR, RADAR, and optical imagery, new methodologies and applications with process-based carbon cycle models are becoming more readily available to inform land management.

  20. Temperature fluctuation reducing device for FBR type reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootsuka, Fumio; Shiratori, Fumihiro.

    1991-01-01

    In existent FBR type reactors, since temperature fluctuation in the reactor upper portion has been inevitable, thermal fatigue may be caused possibly in reactor core upper mechanisms. Then, a valve is disposed to a control rod lower guide tube contained in a reactor container for automatically controlling the amount of passing coolants in accordance with the temperature of the passing coolants, to mix and control coolants passing through a fuel assembly in adjacent with the guide tube and coolants passing through the guide tube. Further, a rectification cylinder is disposed, in which a portion of coolants passing through the fuel assembly is caused to flow. An orifice is disposed to the cylinder with an exit being disposed to the upstream thereof such that the coolants not flown into the rectification cylinder and the coolants passing through the guide tube are mixed to moderate the temperature fluctuation. That is, a portion of the coolants flown into the rectification cylinder can not pass through the orifice, but flow backwardly to the upstream and is discharged out of the rectification cylinder from the coolants exit and mixed sufficiently with coolants passing through the guide tube. In this way, temperature fluctuation can be moderated. (N.H.)

  1. Food additives reducing volatility of antioxidants at frying temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    At frying temperature, antioxidants are lost not only by reaction with radicals formed by oil oxidation, but also by decomposition and evaporation before they are able to exert antioxidant activity. In this study it was hypothesized that an additive that can bind or interact with an antioxidant coul...

  2. Temperature extremes reduce seagrass growth and induce mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, C J; Waycott, M

    2014-06-30

    Extreme heating (up to 43 °C measured from five-year temperature records) occurs in shallow coastal seagrass meadows of the Great Barrier Reef at low tide. We measured effective quantum yield (ϕPSII), growth, senescence and mortality in four tropical seagrasses to experimental short-duration (2.5h) spikes in water temperature to 35 °C, 40 °C and 43 °C, for 6 days followed by one day at ambient temperature. Increasing temperature to 35 °C had positive effects on ϕPSII (the magnitude varied between days and was highly correlated with PPFD), with no effects on growth or mortality. 40 °C represented a critical threshold as there were strong species differences and there was a large impact on growth and mortality. At 43 °C there was complete mortality after 2-3 days. These findings indicate that increasing duration (more days in a row) of thermal events above 40 °C is likely to affect the ecological function of tropical seagrass meadows. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Reducing Uncertainty in the Daycent Model of Heterotrophic Respiration with a More Mechanistic Representation of Microbial Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berardi, D.; Gomez-Casanovas, N.; Hudiburg, T. W.

    2017-12-01

    Improving the certainty of ecosystem models is essential to ensuring their legitimacy, value, and ability to inform management and policy decisions. With more than a century of research exploring the variables controlling soil respiration, a high level of uncertainty remains in the ability of ecosystem models to accurately estimate respiration with changing climatic conditions. Refining model estimates of soil carbon fluxes is a high priority for climate change scientists to determine whether soils will be carbon sources or sinks in the future. We found that DayCent underestimates heterotrophic respiration by several magnitudes for our temperate mixed conifer forest site. While traditional ecosystem models simulate decomposition through first order kinetics, recent research has found that including microbial mechanisms explains 20 percent more spatial heterogeneity. We manipulated the DayCent heterotrophic respiration model to include a more mechanistic representation of microbial dynamic and compared the new model with continuous and survey observations from our experimental forest site in the Northern Rockies ecoregion. We also calibrated the model's sensitivity to soil moisture and temperature to our experimental data. We expect to improve the accuracy of the model by 20-30 percent. By using a more representative and calibrated model of soil carbon dynamics, we can better predict feedbacks between climate and soil carbon pools.

  4. Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, Jens C.; Sonnenborg, Torben; Butts, Michael

    2016-01-01

    This paper assesses how various sources of uncertainty propagate through the uncertainty cascade from emission scenarios through climate models and hydrological models to impacts with particular focus on groundwater aspects for a number of coordinated studies in Denmark. We find results similar...... to surface water studies showing that climate model uncertainty dominates for projections of climate change impacts on streamflow and groundwater heads. However, we find uncertainties related to geological conceptualisation and hydrological model discretisation to be dominating for projections of well field...... climate-hydrology models....

  5. Glacial ocean circulation and stratification explained by reduced atmospheric temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Malte F

    2017-01-03

    Earth's climate has undergone dramatic shifts between glacial and interglacial time periods, with high-latitude temperature changes on the order of 5-10 °C. These climatic shifts have been associated with major rearrangements in the deep ocean circulation and stratification, which have likely played an important role in the observed atmospheric carbon dioxide swings by affecting the partitioning of carbon between the atmosphere and the ocean. The mechanisms by which the deep ocean circulation changed, however, are still unclear and represent a major challenge to our understanding of glacial climates. This study shows that various inferred changes in the deep ocean circulation and stratification between glacial and interglacial climates can be interpreted as a direct consequence of atmospheric temperature differences. Colder atmospheric temperatures lead to increased sea ice cover and formation rate around Antarctica. The associated enhanced brine rejection leads to a strongly increased deep ocean stratification, consistent with high abyssal salinities inferred for the last glacial maximum. The increased stratification goes together with a weakening and shoaling of the interhemispheric overturning circulation, again consistent with proxy evidence for the last glacial. The shallower interhemispheric overturning circulation makes room for slowly moving water of Antarctic origin, which explains the observed middepth radiocarbon age maximum and may play an important role in ocean carbon storage.

  6. It's the parameters, stupid! Moving beyond multi-model and multi-physics approaches to characterize and reduce predictive uncertainty in process-based hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Martyn; Samaniego, Luis; Freer, Jim

    2014-05-01

    Multi-model and multi-physics approaches are a popular tool in environmental modelling, with many studies focusing on optimally combining output from multiple model simulations to reduce predictive errors and better characterize predictive uncertainty. However, a careful and systematic analysis of different hydrological models reveals that individual models are simply small permutations of a master modeling template, and inter-model differences are overwhelmed by uncertainty in the choice of the parameter values in the model equations. Furthermore, inter-model differences do not explicitly represent the uncertainty in modeling a given process, leading to many situations where different models provide the wrong results for the same reasons. In other cases, the available morphological data does not support the very fine spatial discretization of the landscape that typifies many modern applications of process-based models. To make the uncertainty characterization problem worse, the uncertain parameter values in process-based models are often fixed (hard-coded), and the models lack the agility necessary to represent the tremendous heterogeneity in natural systems. This presentation summarizes results from a systematic analysis of uncertainty in process-based hydrological models, where we explicitly analyze the myriad of subjective decisions made throughout both the model development and parameter estimation process. Results show that much of the uncertainty is aleatory in nature - given a "complete" representation of dominant hydrologic processes, uncertainty in process parameterizations can be represented using an ensemble of model parameters. Epistemic uncertainty associated with process interactions and scaling behavior is still important, and these uncertainties can be represented using an ensemble of different spatial configurations. Finally, uncertainty in forcing data can be represented using ensemble methods for spatial meteorological analysis. Our systematic

  7. Cellular and molecular research to reduce uncertainties in estimates of health effects from low-level radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elkind, M.M.; Bedford, J.; Benjamin, S.A.; Waldren, C.A. (Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (USA)); Gotchy, R.L. (Science Applications International Corp., McLean, VA (USA))

    1990-10-01

    A study was undertaken by five radiation scientists to examine the feasibility of reducing the uncertainties in the estimation of risk due to protracted low doses of ionizing radiation. In addressing the question of feasibility, a review was made by the study group: of the cellular, molecular, and mammalian radiation data that are available; of the way in which altered oncogene properties could be involved in the loss of growth control that culminates in tumorigenesis; and of the progress that had been made in the genetic characterizations of several human and animal neoplasms. On the basis of this analysis, the study group concluded that, at the present time, it is feasible to mount a program of radiation research directed at the mechanism(s) of radiation-induced cancer with special reference to risk of neoplasia due to protracted, low doses of sparsely ionizing radiation. To implement a program of research, a review was made of the methods, techniques, and instruments that would be needed. This review was followed by a survey of the laboratories and institutions where scientific personnel and facilities are known to be available. A research agenda of the principal and broad objectives of the program is also discussed. 489 refs., 21 figs., 14 tabs.

  8. Cellular and molecular research to reduce uncertainties in estimates of health effects from low-level radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elkind, M.M.; Bedford, J.; Benjamin, S.A.; Waldren, C.A.; Gotchy, R.L.

    1990-10-01

    A study was undertaken by five radiation scientists to examine the feasibility of reducing the uncertainties in the estimation of risk due to protracted low doses of ionizing radiation. In addressing the question of feasibility, a review was made by the study group: of the cellular, molecular, and mammalian radiation data that are available; of the way in which altered oncogene properties could be involved in the loss of growth control that culminates in tumorigenesis; and of the progress that had been made in the genetic characterizations of several human and animal neoplasms. On the basis of this analysis, the study group concluded that, at the present time, it is feasible to mount a program of radiation research directed at the mechanism(s) of radiation-induced cancer with special reference to risk of neoplasia due to protracted, low doses of sparsely ionizing radiation. To implement a program of research, a review was made of the methods, techniques, and instruments that would be needed. This review was followed by a survey of the laboratories and institutions where scientific personnel and facilities are known to be available. A research agenda of the principal and broad objectives of the program is also discussed. 489 refs., 21 figs., 14 tabs

  9. Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR 3/4 Experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Binh Thi-Cam

    2015-01-01

    A series of Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) irradiation experiments are being conducted within the Advanced Reactor Technology (ART) Fuel Development and Qualification Program. The main objectives of the fuel experimental campaign are to provide the necessary data on fuel performance to support fuel process development, qualify a fuel design and fabrication process for normal operation and accident conditions, and support development and validation of fuel performance and fission product transport models and codes (PLN 3636, 'Technical Program Plan for INL Advanced Reactor Technologies Technology Development Office/Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program'). The AGR 3/4 test was inserted in the Northeast Flux Trap position in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in December 2011 and successfully completed irradiation in mid-April 2014, resulting in irradiation of the tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel for 369.1 effective full-power days (EFPDs) during approximately 2.4 calendar years. The AGR 3/4 data, including the irradiation data and calculated results, were qualified and stored in the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS). To support the U.S. TRISO fuel performance assessment and to provide data for validation of fuel performance and fission product transport models and codes, the daily as run thermal analysis has been performed separately on each of twelve AGR 3/4 capsules for the entire irradiation as discussed in ECAR-2807, 'AGR 3/4 Daily As Run Thermal Analyses'. The ABAQUS code's finite element-based thermal model predicts the daily average volume average (VA) fuel temperature (FT), peak FT, and graphite matrix, sleeve, and sink temperature in each capsule. The JMOCUP simulation codes were also created to perform depletion calculations for the AGR 3/4 experiment (ECAR-2753, 'JMOCUP As-Run Daily Physics Depletion Calculation for the AGR 3/4 TRISO Particle

  10. Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR 3/4 Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pham, Binh Thi-Cam [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    A series of Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) irradiation experiments are being conducted within the Advanced Reactor Technology (ART) Fuel Development and Qualification Program. The main objectives of the fuel experimental campaign are to provide the necessary data on fuel performance to support fuel process development, qualify a fuel design and fabrication process for normal operation and accident conditions, and support development and validation of fuel performance and fission product transport models and codes (PLN 3636, “Technical Program Plan for INL Advanced Reactor Technologies Technology Development Office/Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program”). The AGR 3/4 test was inserted in the Northeast Flux Trap position in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in December 2011 and successfully completed irradiation in mid-April 2014, resulting in irradiation of the tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel for 369.1 effective full-power days (EFPDs) during approximately 2.4 calendar years. The AGR 3/4 data, including the irradiation data and calculated results, were qualified and stored in the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS). To support the U.S. TRISO fuel performance assessment and to provide data for validation of fuel performance and fission product transport models and codes, the daily as run thermal analysis has been performed separately on each of twelve AGR 3/4 capsules for the entire irradiation as discussed in ECAR-2807, “AGR 3/4 Daily As Run Thermal Analyses”. The ABAQUS code’s finite element-based thermal model predicts the daily average volume average (VA) fuel temperature (FT), peak FT, and graphite matrix, sleeve, and sink temperature in each capsule. The JMOCUP simulation codes were also created to perform depletion calculations for the AGR 3/4 experiment (ECAR-2753, “JMOCUP As-Run Daily Physics Depletion Calculation for the AGR 3/4 TRISO Particle Experiment in ATR

  11. Uncertainty Characterization of Reactor Vessel Fracture Toughness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Fei; Modarres, Mohammad

    2002-01-01

    To perform fracture mechanics analysis of reactor vessel, fracture toughness (K Ic ) at various temperatures would be necessary. In a best estimate approach, K Ic uncertainties resulting from both lack of sufficient knowledge and randomness in some of the variables of K Ic must be characterized. Although it may be argued that there is only one type of uncertainty, which is lack of perfect knowledge about the subject under study, as a matter of practice K Ic uncertainties can be divided into two types: aleatory and epistemic. Aleatory uncertainty is related to uncertainty that is very difficult to reduce, if not impossible; epistemic uncertainty, on the other hand, can be practically reduced. Distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties facilitates decision-making under uncertainty and allows for proper propagation of uncertainties in the computation process. Typically, epistemic uncertainties representing, for example, parameters of a model are sampled (to generate a 'snapshot', single-value of the parameters), but the totality of aleatory uncertainties is carried through the calculation as available. In this paper a description of an approach to account for these two types of uncertainties associated with K Ic has been provided. (authors)

  12. Reduced one-body density matrix of Tonks–Girardeau gas at finite temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu Xiao-Chen; Hao Ya-Jiang

    2015-01-01

    With thermal Bose–Fermi mapping method, we investigate the Tonks–Girardeau gas at finite temperature. It is shown that at low temperature, the Tonks gas displays the Fermi-like density profiles, and with the increase in temperature, the Tonks gas distributes in wider region. The reduced one-body density matrix is diagonal dominant in the whole temperature region, and the off-diagonal elements shall vanish rapidly with the deviation from the diagonal part at high temperature. (paper)

  13. Predictive Modeling of a Paradigm Mechanical Cooling Tower Model: II. Optimal Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Predicted Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruixian Fang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This work uses the adjoint sensitivity model of the counter-flow cooling tower derived in the accompanying PART I to obtain the expressions and relative numerical rankings of the sensitivities, to all model parameters, of the following model responses: (i outlet air temperature; (ii outlet water temperature; (iii outlet water mass flow rate; and (iv air outlet relative humidity. These sensitivities are subsequently used within the “predictive modeling for coupled multi-physics systems” (PM_CMPS methodology to obtain explicit formulas for the predicted optimal nominal values for the model responses and parameters, along with reduced predicted standard deviations for the predicted model parameters and responses. These explicit formulas embody the assimilation of experimental data and the “calibration” of the model’s parameters. The results presented in this work demonstrate that the PM_CMPS methodology reduces the predicted standard deviations to values that are smaller than either the computed or the experimentally measured ones, even for responses (e.g., the outlet water flow rate for which no measurements are available. These improvements stem from the global characteristics of the PM_CMPS methodology, which combines all of the available information simultaneously in phase-space, as opposed to combining it sequentially, as in current data assimilation procedures.

  14. Silicon photonics thermal phase shifter with reduced temperature range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentine, Anthony L; Kekatpure, Rohan D; DeRose, Christopher; Davids, Paul; Watts, Michael R

    2013-12-17

    Optical devices, phased array systems and methods of phase-shifting an input signal are provided. An optical device includes a microresonator and a waveguide for receiving an input optical signal. The waveguide includes a segment coupled to the microresonator with a coupling coefficient such that the waveguide is overcoupled to the microresonator. The microresonator received the input optical signal via the waveguide and phase-shifts the input optical signal to form an output optical signal. The output optical signal is coupled into the waveguide via the microresonator and transmitted by the waveguide. At an operating point of the optical device, the coupling coefficient is selected to reduce a change in an amplitude of the output optical signal and to increase a change in a phase of the output optical signal, relative to the input optical signal.

  15. Estimating Sampling Biases and Measurement Uncertainties of AIRS-AMSU-A Temperature and Water Vapor Observations Using MERRA Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hearty, Thomas J.; Savtchenko, Andrey K.; Tian, Baijun; Fetzer, Eric; Yung, Yuk L.; Theobald, Michael; Vollmer, Bruce; Fishbein, Evan; Won, Young-In

    2014-01-01

    We use MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research Applications) temperature and water vapor data to estimate the sampling biases of climatologies derived from the AIRS/AMSU-A (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) suite of instruments. We separate the total sampling bias into temporal and instrumental components. The temporal component is caused by the AIRS/AMSU-A orbit and swath that are not able to sample all of time and space. The instrumental component is caused by scenes that prevent successful retrievals. The temporal sampling biases are generally smaller than the instrumental sampling biases except in regions with large diurnal variations, such as the boundary layer, where the temporal sampling biases of temperature can be +/- 2 K and water vapor can be 10% wet. The instrumental sampling biases are the main contributor to the total sampling biases and are mainly caused by clouds. They are up to 2 K cold and greater than 30% dry over mid-latitude storm tracks and tropical deep convective cloudy regions and up to 20% wet over stratus regions. However, other factors such as surface emissivity and temperature can also influence the instrumental sampling bias over deserts where the biases can be up to 1 K cold and 10% wet. Some instrumental sampling biases can vary seasonally and/or diurnally. We also estimate the combined measurement uncertainties of temperature and water vapor from AIRS/AMSU-A and MERRA by comparing similarly sampled climatologies from both data sets. The measurement differences are often larger than the sampling biases and have longitudinal variations.

  16. In Depth Modeling of Nuclide Transport in the Geosphere and the Biosphere to Reduce Uncertainty (Final Report)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Kang, Chul Kyung; Hwang, Yong Soo; Lee, Sung Ho

    2010-08-01

    The Korea Radioactive Waste Management Center (KRMC) is conducting a research on a step by step development of a safety case for the Gyeongju low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste repository (WNEMC; Wolseong Nuclear Environment Management Center). A modeling study and development of a methodology, by which an assessment of safety and performance for a low- and intermediate level radioactive waste (LILW) repository could be effectively made has been carried out. With normal or abnormal nuclide release cases associated with the various FEPs and scenarios involved in the performance of the proposed repository in view of nuclide transport and transfer both in geosphere and biosphere, a total system performance assessment (TSPA) program has been developed by utilizing such commercial development tool programs as GoldSim, AMBER, MASCOT-K, and TOUGH2 in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) under contract with KRMC. The final project report especially deals much with a detailed conceptual modeling scheme by which a GoldSim program modules, all of which are integrated into a TSPA program template kit as well as the input data set currently available. In-depth system models that are conceptually and rather practically described and then ready for implementing into a GoldSim TSPA program are introduced with plenty of illustrative conceptual schemes and evaluations with data currently available. The GoldSim TSPA tempalte program and the AMBER biosphere tempalte program as well as the TOUGH-2 gas migration template program developed through this project are expected to be successfully applied to the post closure safety assessment required for WNEMC by the regulatory body with increased practicality and much reduced uncertainty and conservatism

  17. Reducing the sensitivity of IMPT treatment plans to setup errors and range uncertainties via probabilistic treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unkelbach, Jan; Bortfeld, Thomas; Martin, Benjamin C.; Soukup, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Treatment plans optimized for intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) may be very sensitive to setup errors and range uncertainties. If these errors are not accounted for during treatment planning, the dose distribution realized in the patient may by strongly degraded compared to the planned dose distribution. The authors implemented the probabilistic approach to incorporate uncertainties directly into the optimization of an intensity modulated treatment plan. Following this approach, the dose distribution depends on a set of random variables which parameterize the uncertainty, as does the objective function used to optimize the treatment plan. The authors optimize the expected value of the objective function. They investigate IMPT treatment planning regarding range uncertainties and setup errors. They demonstrate that incorporating these uncertainties into the optimization yields qualitatively different treatment plans compared to conventional plans which do not account for uncertainty. The sensitivity of an IMPT plan depends on the dose contributions of individual beam directions. Roughly speaking, steep dose gradients in beam direction make treatment plans sensitive to range errors. Steep lateral dose gradients make plans sensitive to setup errors. More robust treatment plans are obtained by redistributing dose among different beam directions. This can be achieved by the probabilistic approach. In contrast, the safety margin approach as widely applied in photon therapy fails in IMPT and is neither suitable for handling range variations nor setup errors.

  18. Intense air-sea exchanges and heavy orographic precipitation over Italy: The role of Adriatic sea surface temperature uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocchi, Paolo; Davolio, Silvio

    2017-11-01

    Strong and persistent low-level winds blowing over the Adriatic basin are often associated with intense precipitation events over Italy. Typically, in case of moist southeasterly wind (Sirocco), rainfall affects northeastern Italy and the Alpine chain, while with cold northeasterly currents (Bora) precipitations are localized along the eastern slopes of the Apennines and central Italy coastal areas. These events are favoured by intense air-sea interactions and it is reasonable to hypothesize that the Adriatic sea surface temperature (SST) can affect the amount and location of precipitation. High-resolution simulations of different Bora and Sirocco events leading to severe precipitation are performed using a convection-permitting model (MOLOCH). Sensitivity experiments varying the SST initialization field are performed with the aim of evaluating the impact of SST uncertainty on precipitation forecasts, which is a relevant topic for operational weather predictions, especially at local scales. Moreover, diagnostic tools to compute water vapour fluxes across the Italian coast and atmospheric water budget over the Adriatic Sea have been developed and applied in order to characterize the air mass that feeds the precipitating systems. Finally, the investigation of the processes through which the SST influences location and intensity of heavy precipitation allows to gain a better understanding on mechanisms conducive to severe weather in the Mediterranean area and in the Adriatic basin in particular. Results show that the effect of the Adriatic SST (uncertainty) on precipitation is complex and can vary considerably among different events. For both Bora and Sirocco events, SST does not influence markedly the atmospheric water budget or the degree of moistening of air that flows over the Adriatic Sea. SST mainly affects the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer, thus influencing the flow dynamics and the orographic flow regime, and in turn, the precipitation pattern.

  19. Applications of Bayesian temperature profile reconstruction to automated comparison with heat transport models and uncertainty quantification of current diffusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irishkin, M.; Imbeaux, F.; Aniel, T.; Artaud, J.F.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We developed a method for automated comparison of experimental data with models. • A unique platform implements Bayesian analysis and integrated modelling tools. • The method is tokamak-generic and is applied to Tore Supra and JET pulses. • Validation of a heat transport model is carried out. • We quantified the uncertainties due to Te profiles in current diffusion simulations. - Abstract: In the context of present and future long pulse tokamak experiments yielding a growing size of measured data per pulse, automating data consistency analysis and comparisons of measurements with models is a critical matter. To address these issues, the present work describes an expert system that carries out in an integrated and fully automated way (i) a reconstruction of plasma profiles from the measurements, using Bayesian analysis (ii) a prediction of the reconstructed quantities, according to some models and (iii) a comparison of the first two steps. The first application shown is devoted to the development of an automated comparison method between the experimental plasma profiles reconstructed using Bayesian methods and time dependent solutions of the transport equations. The method was applied to model validation of a simple heat transport model with three radial shape options. It has been tested on a database of 21 Tore Supra and 14 JET shots. The second application aims at quantifying uncertainties due to the electron temperature profile in current diffusion simulations. A systematic reconstruction of the Ne, Te, Ti profiles was first carried out for all time slices of the pulse. The Bayesian 95% highest probability intervals on the Te profile reconstruction were then used for (i) data consistency check of the flux consumption and (ii) defining a confidence interval for the current profile simulation. The method has been applied to one Tore Supra pulse and one JET pulse.

  20. Temperature-dependent stress response in oysters, Crassostrea virginica: Pollution reduces temperature tolerance in oysters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lannig, Gisela; Flores, Jason F.; Sokolova, Inna M.

    2006-01-01

    Combined effects of temperature and a toxic metal, cadmium (Cd), on energy metabolism were studied in a model marine bivalve, the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica, acclimated at 20, 24 and 28 deg. C and exposed to 50 μg l -1 of Cd. Both increasing temperature and Cd exposure led to a rise in standard metabolic rates, and combined stressors appeared to override the capability for aerobic energy production resulting in impaired stress tolerance. Oysters exposed to elevated temperature but not Cd showed no significant change in condition, survival rate and lipid peroxidation, whereas those exposed to both Cd and temperature stress suffered high mortality accompanied by low condition index and elevated lipid peroxidation. Furthermore, RNA/DNA ratios indicative of protein synthesis rate, and levels of glutathione, which is involved in metal detoxification, increased in Cd-exposed oysters at 20 deg. C but not at 28 deg. C. Implications of the synergism between elevated temperatures and cadmium stress on energy metabolism of oysters are discussed in the light of the potential effects of climate change on oyster populations in polluted areas

  1. Spatial and temporal patterns of land surface fluxes from remotely sensed surface temperatures within an uncertainty modelling framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. McCabe

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Characterising the development of evapotranspiration through time is a difficult task, particularly when utilising remote sensing data, because retrieved information is often spatially dense, but temporally sparse. Techniques to expand these essentially instantaneous measures are not only limited, they are restricted by the general paucity of information describing the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of evaporative patterns. In a novel approach, temporal changes in land surface temperatures, derived from NOAA-AVHRR imagery and a generalised split-window algorithm, are used as a calibration variable in a simple land surface scheme (TOPUP and combined within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE methodology to provide estimates of areal evapotranspiration at the pixel scale. Such an approach offers an innovative means of transcending the patch or landscape scale of SVAT type models, to spatially distributed estimates of model output. The resulting spatial and temporal patterns of land surface fluxes and surface resistance are used to more fully understand the hydro-ecological trends observed across a study catchment in eastern Australia. The modelling approach is assessed by comparing predicted cumulative evapotranspiration values with surface fluxes determined from Bowen ratio systems and using auxiliary information such as in-situ soil moisture measurements and depth to groundwater to corroborate observed responses.

  2. Numerical Investigation of Temperature Distribution in an Eroded Bend Pipe and Prediction of Erosion Reduced Thickness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hongjun; Feng, Guang; Wang, Qijun

    2014-01-01

    Accurate prediction of erosion thickness is essential for pipe engineering. The objective of the present paper is to study the temperature distribution in an eroded bend pipe and find a new method to predict the erosion reduced thickness. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations with FLUENT software are carried out to investigate the temperature field. And effects of oil inlet rate, oil inlet temperature, and erosion reduced thickness are examined. The presence of erosion pit brings about the obvious fluctuation of temperature drop along the extrados of bend. And the minimum temperature drop presents at the most severe erosion point. Small inlet temperature or large inlet velocity can lead to small temperature drop, while shallow erosion pit causes great temperature drop. The dimensionless minimum temperature drop is analyzed and the fitting formula is obtained. Using the formula we can calculate the erosion reduced thickness, which is only needed to monitor the outer surface temperature of bend pipe. This new method can provide useful guidance for pipeline monitoring and replacement. PMID:24719576

  3. Reducing uncertainty of estimated nitrogen load reductions to aquatic systems through spatially targeting agricultural mitigation measures using groundwater nitrogen reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hashemi, Fatemeh; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind; Jabloun, Mohamed

    2018-01-01

    variation across the landscape in natural N-reduction (denitrification) of leached nitrate in the groundwater and surface water systems. A critical basis for including spatial targeting in regulation of N-load in Denmark is the uncertainty associated with the effect of spatially targeting measures, since......The need to further abate agricultural nitrate (N)-loadings to coastal waters in Denmark represents the main driver for development of a new spatially targeted regulation that focus on locating N-mitigation measures in agricultural areas with high N-load. This targeting makes use of the spatial...... the effect will be critically affected by uncertainty in the quantification of the spatial variation in N-reduction. In this study, we used 30 equally plausible N-reduction maps, at 100 m grid and sub-catchment resolutions, for the 85-km2 groundwater dominated Norsminde catchment in Denmark, applying set...

  4. Thickened water-based hydraulic fluid with reduced dependence of viscosity on temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deck, C. F.

    1985-01-01

    Improved hydraulic fluids or metalworking lubricants, utilizing mixtures of water, metal lubricants, metal corrosion inhibitors, and an associative polyether thickener, have reduced dependence of the viscosity on temperature achieved by the incorporation therein of an ethoxylated polyether surfactant.

  5. Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Falloon, Pete; Ito, Akihiko; Smallman, T. Luke; Williams, Mathew

    2018-02-01

    Multi-model averaging techniques provide opportunities to extract additional information from large ensembles of simulations. In particular, present-day model skill can be used to evaluate their potential performance in future climate simulations. Multi-model averaging methods have been used extensively in climate and hydrological sciences, but they have not been used to constrain projected plant productivity responses to climate change, which is a major uncertainty in Earth system modelling. Here, we use three global observationally orientated estimates of current net primary productivity (NPP) to perform a reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method using 30 global simulations of the 21st century change in NPP based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) business as usual emissions scenario. We find that the three REA methods support an increase in global NPP by the end of the 21st century (2095-2099) compared to 2001-2005, which is 2-3 % stronger than the ensemble ISIMIP mean value of 24.2 Pg C y-1. Using REA also leads to a 45-68 % reduction in the global uncertainty of 21st century NPP projection, which strengthens confidence in the resilience of the CO2 fertilization effect to climate change. This reduction in uncertainty is especially clear for boreal ecosystems although it may be an artefact due to the lack of representation of nutrient limitations on NPP in most models. Conversely, the large uncertainty that remains on the sign of the response of NPP in semi-arid regions points to the need for better observations and model development in these regions.

  6. Multi-model analysis of terrestrial carbon cycles in Japan: reducing uncertainties in model outputs among different terrestrial biosphere models using flux observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichii, K.; Suzuki, T.; Kato, T.; Ito, A.; Hajima, T.; Ueyama, M.; Sasai, T.; Hirata, R.; Saigusa, N.; Ohtani, Y.; Takagi, K.

    2009-08-01

    Terrestrial biosphere models show large uncertainties when simulating carbon and water cycles, and reducing these uncertainties is a priority for developing more accurate estimates of both terrestrial ecosystem statuses and future climate changes. To reduce uncertainties and improve the understanding of these carbon budgets, we investigated the ability of flux datasets to improve model simulations and reduce variabilities among multi-model outputs of terrestrial biosphere models in Japan. Using 9 terrestrial biosphere models (Support Vector Machine-based regressions, TOPS, CASA, VISIT, Biome-BGC, DAYCENT, SEIB, LPJ, and TRIFFID), we conducted two simulations: (1) point simulations at four flux sites in Japan and (2) spatial simulations for Japan with a default model (based on original settings) and an improved model (based on calibration using flux observations). Generally, models using default model settings showed large deviations in model outputs from observation with large model-by-model variability. However, after we calibrated the model parameters using flux observations (GPP, RE and NEP), most models successfully simulated seasonal variations in the carbon cycle, with less variability among models. We also found that interannual variations in the carbon cycle are mostly consistent among models and observations. Spatial analysis also showed a large reduction in the variability among model outputs, and model calibration using flux observations significantly improved the model outputs. These results show that to reduce uncertainties among terrestrial biosphere models, we need to conduct careful validation and calibration with available flux observations. Flux observation data significantly improved terrestrial biosphere models, not only on a point scale but also on spatial scales.

  7. Isotopic techniques in radioactive waste disposal site evaluation: a method for reducing uncertainties I. T, T/3He, 4He, 14C, 36Cl

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muller, A.B.

    1981-01-01

    This paper introduces five of the isotopic techniques which can help reduce uncertainties associated with the assessment of radioactive waste disposal sites. The basic principles and practical considerations of these best known techniques have been presented, showing how much additional site specific information can be acquired at little cost or consequence to containment efficiency. These methods, and the more experimental methods appearing in the figure but not discussed here, should be considered in any detailed site characterization, data collection and analysis

  8. Reducing uncertainty in Climate Response Time Scale by Bayesian Analysis of the 8.2 ka event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, A.; Held, H.; Bauer, E.; Schneider von Deimling, T.

    2009-04-01

    We analyze the possibility of uncertainty reduction in Climate Response Time Scale by utilizing Greenland ice-core data that contain the 8.2 ka event within a Bayesian model-data intercomparison with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2.3. Within a stochastic version of the model it has been possible to mimic the 8.2 ka event within a plausible experimental setting and with relatively good accuracy considering the timing of the event in comparison to other modeling exercises [1]. The simulation of the centennial cold event is effectively determined by the oceanic cooling rate which depends largely on the ocean diffusivity described by diffusion coefficients of relatively wide uncertainty ranges. The idea now is to discriminate between the different values of diffusivities according to their likelihood to rightly represent the duration of the 8.2 ka event and thus to exploit the paleo data to constrain uncertainty in model parameters in analogue to [2]. Implementing this inverse Bayesian Analysis with this model the technical difficulty arises to establish the related likelihood numerically in addition to the uncertain model parameters: While mainstream uncertainty analyses can assume a quasi-Gaussian shape of likelihood, with weather fluctuating around a long term mean, the 8.2 ka event as a highly nonlinear effect precludes such an a priori assumption. As a result of this study [3] the Bayesian Analysis showed a reduction of uncertainty in vertical ocean diffusivity parameters of factor 2 compared to prior knowledge. This learning effect on the model parameters is propagated to other model outputs of interest; e.g. the inverse ocean heat capacity, which is important for the dominant time scale of climate response to anthropogenic forcing which, in combination with climate sensitivity, strongly influences the climate systems reaction for the near- and medium-term future. 1 References [1] E. Bauer, A. Ganopolski, M. Montoya: Simulation of the

  9. IMPACT OF REDUCING THE 100 C LIQUIDUS TEMPERATURE OFFSET ON WASTE LOADING TARGETS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peeler, D.; Edwards, T.

    2010-11-11

    The objective of this report is to assess the potential impact of reducing conservatism in the implementation of the current liquidus temperature (TL) model in the Product Composition Control System (PCCS) on the ability to target higher waste loadings (WLs) for future sludge batches. No changes to the TL model or the associated uncertainties (model or measurement) are proposed, rather only changes in the magnitude of the offset used between the nominal melt pool temperature (1150 C) and the Property Acceptance Region (PAR) value (1050 C). This strategy is consistent with that outlined and initially assessed by Brown et al. (2001). In that report, the authors stated even a fairly conservative change in this safety factor could have a significant impact on waste loading. The results of this study clearly indicate that the implementation of an 1100 C TL PAR criterion (which translates into a reduction in the TL offset from 100 C to 50 C) can have significantly positive impacts on the ability to gain access to WLs exceeding 45%. This is especially true for those frit and sludge systems that are TL limited using the current 1050 C TL criterion, and are not limited by a second constraint (such as viscosity, nepheline, or durability) until much higher WLs. Examples of various glass forming systems are provided that are currently limited to maximum WLs in the mid-40s, but could be processed in the lower 50s through implementation of this new strategy. One example is in the Sludge Batch 10 (SB10) system, where for a specific glass forming system the projected operating window of 38-41% WL (using the current constraints) became 38-52% WL with the use of an 1100 C TL PAR value. This change both provided access to significantly higher WLs, and transitioned a once infeasible flowsheet to a system that could potentially be processed in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF). This potential change in the TL constraint also provides access to frit compositions (or glass

  10. Bootstrap-after-bootstrap model averaging for reducing model uncertainty in model selection for air pollution mortality studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Steven; Martin, Michael A

    2010-01-01

    Concerns have been raised about findings of associations between particulate matter (PM) air pollution and mortality that have been based on a single "best" model arising from a model selection procedure, because such a strategy may ignore model uncertainty inherently involved in searching through a set of candidate models to find the best model. Model averaging has been proposed as a method of allowing for model uncertainty in this context. To propose an extension (double BOOT) to a previously described bootstrap model-averaging procedure (BOOT) for use in time series studies of the association between PM and mortality. We compared double BOOT and BOOT with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and a standard method of model selection [standard Akaike's information criterion (AIC)]. Actual time series data from the United States are used to conduct a simulation study to compare and contrast the performance of double BOOT, BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. Double BOOT produced estimates of the effect of PM on mortality that have had smaller root mean squared error than did those produced by BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. This performance boost resulted from estimates produced by double BOOT having smaller variance than those produced by BOOT and BMA. Double BOOT is a viable alternative to BOOT and BMA for producing estimates of the mortality effect of PM.

  11. Reducing uncertainty in load forecasts and using real options for improving capacity dispatch management through the utilization of weather and hydrologic forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, T.

    2004-01-01

    The effect of weather on electricity markets was discussed with particular focus on reducing weather uncertainty by improving short term weather forecasts. The implications of weather for hydroelectric power dispatch and use were also discussed. Although some errors in weather forecasting can result in economic benefits, most errors are associated with more costs than benefits. This presentation described how a real options analysis can make weather a favorable option. Four case studies were presented for exploratory data analysis of regional weather phenomena. These included: (1) the 2001 California electricity crisis, (2) the delta breeze effects on the California ISO, (3) the summer 2002 weather forecast error for ISO New England, and (4) the hydro plant asset valuation using weather uncertainty. It was concluded that there is a need for more economic methodological studies on the effect of weather on energy markets and costs. It was suggested that the real options theory should be applied to weather planning and utility applications. tabs., figs

  12. Reduced temperature phase diagrams of the silver-rare earths binary systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferro, R.; Delfino, S.; Capelli, R.; Borsese, A.

    1975-01-01

    Phase equilibria of the silver-rare earth binary systems have been reported in ''reduced temperature'' diagrams (the ''reduced temperature'' being defined as the ratio between a characteristic temperature of the Agsub(x)R.E. phase and the melting temperature of the corresponding R.E. metal, both in 0 K). The smooth trends of the various characteristic reduced temperatures, when plotted against the R.E. atomic number, have been demonstrated. On passing from the light- to the heavy-rare-earths, a correlation has been found between the crossing of these curves and other phenomena, such as the disappearing of the Ag 5 R.E. phases from incongruently, to congruently melting compounds. The trends of the reduced-temperature curves have been briefly discussed in terms of the treatment suggested by Gschneidner together with the volumetric data known for the different Agsub(x)R.E. phases. In addition, the characteristic data of the 1:1 AgR.E. compounds have been compared with those of the analogous AuR.E. phases. (Auth.)

  13. A reduced low-temperature electro-thermal coupled model for lithium-ion batteries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Jiuchun; Ruan, Haijun; Sun, Bingxiang; Zhang, Weige; Gao, Wenzhong; Wang, Le Yi; Zhang, Linjing

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A reduced low-temperature electro-thermal coupled model is proposed. • A novel frequency-dependent equation for polarization parameters is presented. • The model is validated under different frequency and low-temperature conditions. • The reduced model exhibits a high accuracy with a low computational effort. • The adaptability of the proposed methodology for model reduction is verified. - Abstract: A low-temperature electro-thermal coupled model, which is based on the electrochemical mechanism, is developed to accurately capture both electrical and thermal behaviors of batteries. Activation energies reveal that temperature dependence of resistances is greater than that of capacitances. The influence of frequency on polarization voltage and irreversible heat is discussed, and frequency dependence of polarization resistance and capacitance is obtained. Based on the frequency-dependent equation, a reduced low-temperature electro-thermal coupled model is proposed and experimentally validated under different temperature, frequency and amplitude conditions. Simulation results exhibit good agreement with experimental data, where the maximum relative voltage error and temperature error are below 2.65% and 1.79 °C, respectively. The reduced model is demonstrated to have almost the same accuracy as the original model and require a lower computational effort. The effectiveness and adaptability of the proposed methodology for model reduction is verified using batteries with three different cathode materials from different manufacturers. The reduced model, thanks to its high accuracy and simplicity, provides a promising candidate for development of rapid internal heating and optimal charging strategies at low temperature, and for evaluation of the state of battery health in on-board battery management system.

  14. Reducing regional drought vulnerabilities and multi-city robustness conflicts using many-objective optimization under deep uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trindade, B. C.; Reed, P. M.; Herman, J. D.; Zeff, H. B.; Characklis, G. W.

    2017-06-01

    Emerging water scarcity concerns in many urban regions are associated with several deeply uncertain factors, including rapid population growth, limited coordination across adjacent municipalities and the increasing risks for sustained regional droughts. Managing these uncertainties will require that regional water utilities identify coordinated, scarcity-mitigating strategies that trigger the appropriate actions needed to avoid water shortages and financial instabilities. This research focuses on the Research Triangle area of North Carolina, seeking to engage the water utilities within Raleigh, Durham, Cary and Chapel Hill in cooperative and robust regional water portfolio planning. Prior analysis of this region through the year 2025 has identified significant regional vulnerabilities to volumetric shortfalls and financial losses. Moreover, efforts to maximize the individual robustness of any of the mentioned utilities also have the potential to strongly degrade the robustness of the others. This research advances a multi-stakeholder Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM) framework to better account for deeply uncertain factors when identifying cooperative drought management strategies. Our results show that appropriately designing adaptive risk-of-failure action triggers required stressing them with a comprehensive sample of deeply uncertain factors in the computational search phase of MORDM. Search under the new ensemble of states-of-the-world is shown to fundamentally change perceived performance tradeoffs and substantially improve the robustness of individual utilities as well as the overall region to water scarcity. Search under deep uncertainty enhanced the discovery of how cooperative water transfers, financial risk mitigation tools, and coordinated regional demand management must be employed jointly to improve regional robustness and decrease robustness conflicts between the utilities. Insights from this work have general merit for regions where

  15. Daphnia fed algal food grown at elevated temperature have reduced fitness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna B. Sikora

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Lake water temperature is negatively correlated with fatty acids content and P:C ratio in green algae. Hence, elevated temperature may indirectly reduce the fitness of Daphnia due to induced decrease in algal food quality. The aim of this study was to test the hypotheses that quality of algal food decreases with increasing temperature of its culture and that large-bodied Daphnia are more vulnerable to the temperature-related deterioration of algal food quality than small-bodied ones. Laboratory life-table experiments were performed at 20°C with large-bodied D. pulicaria and small-bodied D. cucullata fed with the green alga Scenedesmus obliquus, that had been grown at temperatures of 16, 24 or 32°C. The somatic growth rates of both species decreased significantly with increasing algal culture temperature and this effect was more pronounced in D. pulicaria than in D. cucullata. In the former species, age at first reproduction significantly increased and clutch size significantly decreased with increasing temperature of algae growth, while no significant changes in these two parameters were observed in the latter species. The proportion of egg-bearing females decreased with increasing algal culture temperature in both species. The results of this study support the notion that the quality of algal food decreases with increasing water temperature and also suggest that small-bodied Daphnia species might be less vulnerable to temperature-related decreases in algal food quality than large-bodied ones.

  16. Improvements to the RELAP5/MOD3 reflood model and uncertainty quantification of reflood peak clad temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Yong; Chung, Bob Dong; Lee, Young Jin; Park, Chan Eok; Lee, Guy Hyung; Choi, Chul Jin

    1994-06-01

    This research aims to develop reliable, advanced system thermal-hydraulic computer code and to quantify the uncertainties of code to introduce the best estimate methodology of ECCS for LBLOCA. Although the one of best estimate code, RELAP5/MOD3.1 was introduced from USNRC, several deficiencies in its reflood model and some improvements have been made. The improvements consist of modification of reflood wall heat transfer package and adjusting the drop size in dispersed flow regime. The tome smoothing of wall vaporization and level tracking model are also added to eliminate the pressure spike and level oscillation. For the verification of improved model and quantification of associated uncertainty, the FLECHT-SEASET data were used and upper limit of uncertainty at 95% confidence level is evaluated. (Author) 30 refs., 49 figs., 2 tabs

  17. Improvements to the RELAP5/MOD3 reflood model and uncertainty quantification of reflood peak clad temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Yong; Chung, Bob Dong; Lee, Young Jin; Park, Chan Eok; Lee, Guy Hyung; Choi, Chul Jin [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1994-06-01

    This research aims to develop reliable, advanced system thermal-hydraulic computer code and to quantify the uncertainties of code to introduce the best estimate methodology of ECCS for LBLOCA. Although the one of best estimate code, RELAP5/MOD3.1 was introduced from USNRC, several deficiencies in its reflood model and some improvements have been made. The improvements consist of modification of reflood wall heat transfer package and adjusting the drop size in dispersed flow regime. The tome smoothing of wall vaporization and level tracking model are also added to eliminate the pressure spike and level oscillation. For the verification of improved model and quantification of associated uncertainty, the FLECHT-SEASET data were used and upper limit of uncertainty at 95% confidence level is evaluated. (Author) 30 refs., 49 figs., 2 tabs.

  18. The effects of annealing temperature on the permittivity and electromagnetic attenuation performance of reduced graphene oxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Fan; Zeng, Qiao; Xia, Yilu; Sun, Mengxiao; Xie, Aming

    2018-05-01

    Reduced graphene oxide (RGO) has been prepared through the thermal reduction method with different annealing temperatures to explore the effects of temperature on the permittivity and electromagnetic attenuation performance. The real and imaginary parts of permittivity increase along with the decrease in the oxygen functional group and the increase in the filler loading ratio. A composite only loaded with 1 wt. % of RGO can possess an effective electromagnetic absorption bandwidth of 7.60 GHz, when graphene oxide was reduced under 300 °C for 2 h. With the annealing temperature increased to 700 °C and the well reduced RGO loaded 7 wt. % in the composite, the electromagnetic interference shielding efficiency can get higher than 35 dB from 2 to 18 GHz. This study shows that controlling the oxygen functional groups on the RGO surface can also obtain an ideal electromagnetic attenuation performance without any other decorated nanomaterials.

  19. Mid-infrared response of reduced graphene oxide and its high-temperature coefficient of resistance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haifeng Liang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Much effort has been made to study the formation mechanisms of photocurrents in graphene and reduced graphene oxide films under visible and near-infrared light irradiation. A built-in field and photo-thermal electrons have been applied to explain the experiments. However, much less attention has been paid to clarifying the mid-infrared response of reduced graphene oxide films at room temperature. Thus, mid-infrared photoresponse and annealing temperature-dependent resistance experiments were carried out on reduced graphene oxide films. A maximum photocurrent of 75 μA was observed at room temperature, which was dominated by the bolometer effect, where the resistance of the films decreased as the temperature increased after they had absorbed light. The electrons localized in the defect states and the residual oxygen groups were thermally excited into the conduction band, forming a photocurrent. In addition, a temperature increase of 2 °C for the films after light irradiation for 2 minutes was observed using absorption power calculations. This work details a way to use reduced graphene oxide films that contain appropriate defects and residual oxygen groups as bolometer-sensitive materials in the mid-infrared range.

  20. Synthesis copolymer use to reduce pour point temperature of diamond crude oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Than, Dao Viet; Chuong, Thai Hong; Tuy, Dao Quoc

    2017-09-01

    Diamond oil field is located in Block 01&02 Offshore Vietnam. Crude oil from Diamond Well Head Platform (WHP) is evacuated to FPSO via 20km 10" subsea flexible pipeline. The lowest seabed temperature in the field is 22°C, while the pour point temperature (PPT) of Diamond crude oil is very high (36°C) due to high paraffin content (25%). So studying to research a suitable Pour Point Depressant (PPD) for the crude oil is very important. The PPD must have ability to reduce pour point temperature of crude oil from 36°C to 21°C.

  1. Reducing the ordering temperature of FePt nanoparticles by Cu additive and alternate reduction method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Wang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available (FePt85Cu15 nanoparticles were successfully prepared by alternate reduction of metal salts in aqueous medium. Detailed investigations on the correlation between the magnetic and structural properties of these nanoparticles are presented as a function of annealing temperature. Both the X-ray diffraction patterns and the magnetic hysteresis loop measurements show the existence of L10-FePt phase at a relative low annealing temperature. It is proved that the Cu additive and alternate reduction are very effective methods in reducing the ordering temperature of FePt nanoparticles.

  2. Characterization of XR-RV3 GafChromic{sup ®} films in standard laboratory and in clinical conditions and means to evaluate uncertainties and reduce errors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farah, J., E-mail: jad.farah@irsn.fr; Clairand, I.; Huet, C. [External Dosimetry Department, Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), BP-17, 92260 Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Trianni, A. [Medical Physics Department, Udine University Hospital S. Maria della Misericordia (AOUD), p.le S. Maria della Misericordia, 15, 33100 Udine (Italy); Ciraj-Bjelac, O. [Vinca Institute of Nuclear Sciences (VINCA), P.O. Box 522, 11001 Belgrade (Serbia); De Angelis, C. [Department of Technology and Health, Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS), Viale Regina Elena 299, 00161 Rome (Italy); Delle Canne, S. [Fatebenefratelli San Giovanni Calibita Hospital (FBF), UOC Medical Physics - Isola Tiberina, 00186 Rome (Italy); Hadid, L.; Waryn, M. J. [Radiology Department, Hôpital Jean Verdier (HJV), Avenue du 14 Juillet, 93140 Bondy Cedex (France); Jarvinen, H.; Siiskonen, T. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK), P.O. Box 14, 00881 Helsinki (Finland); Negri, A. [Veneto Institute of Oncology (IOV), Via Gattamelata 64, 35124 Padova (Italy); Novák, L. [National Radiation Protection Institute (NRPI), Bartoškova 28, 140 00 Prague 4 (Czech Republic); Pinto, M. [Istituto Nazionale di Metrologia delle Radiazioni Ionizzanti (ENEA-INMRI), C.R. Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, I-00123 Santa Maria di Galeria (RM) (Italy); Knežević, Ž. [Ruđer Bošković Institute (RBI), Bijenička c. 54, 10000 Zagreb (Croatia)

    2015-07-15

    Purpose: To investigate the optimal use of XR-RV3 GafChromic{sup ®} films to assess patient skin dose in interventional radiology while addressing the means to reduce uncertainties in dose assessment. Methods: XR-Type R GafChromic films have been shown to represent the most efficient and suitable solution to determine patient skin dose in interventional procedures. As film dosimetry can be associated with high uncertainty, this paper presents the EURADOS WG 12 initiative to carry out a comprehensive study of film characteristics with a multisite approach. The considered sources of uncertainties include scanner, film, and fitting-related errors. The work focused on studying film behavior with clinical high-dose-rate pulsed beams (previously unavailable in the literature) together with reference standard laboratory beams. Results: First, the performance analysis of six different scanner models has shown that scan uniformity perpendicular to the lamp motion axis and that long term stability are the main sources of scanner-related uncertainties. These could induce errors of up to 7% on the film readings unless regularly checked and corrected. Typically, scan uniformity correction matrices and reading normalization to the scanner-specific and daily background reading should be done. In addition, the analysis on multiple film batches has shown that XR-RV3 films have generally good uniformity within one batch (<1.5%), require 24 h to stabilize after the irradiation and their response is roughly independent of dose rate (<5%). However, XR-RV3 films showed large variations (up to 15%) with radiation quality both in standard laboratory and in clinical conditions. As such, and prior to conducting patient skin dose measurements, it is mandatory to choose the appropriate calibration beam quality depending on the characteristics of the x-ray systems that will be used clinically. In addition, yellow side film irradiations should be preferentially used since they showed a lower

  3. Reducing regional vulnerabilities and multi-city robustness conflicts using many-objective optimization under deep uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Patrick; Trindade, Bernardo; Jonathan, Herman; Harrison, Zeff; Gregory, Characklis

    2016-04-01

    Emerging water scarcity concerns in southeastern US are associated with several deeply uncertain factors, including rapid population growth, limited coordination across adjacent municipalities and the increasing risks for sustained regional droughts. Managing these uncertainties will require that regional water utilities identify regionally coordinated, scarcity-mitigating strategies that trigger the appropriate actions needed to avoid water shortages and financial instabilities. This research focuses on the Research Triangle area of North Carolina, seeking to engage the water utilities within Raleigh, Durham, Cary and Chapel Hill in cooperative and robust regional water portfolio planning. Prior analysis of this region through the year 2025 has identified significant regional vulnerabilities to volumetric shortfalls and financial losses. Moreover, efforts to maximize the individual robustness of any of the mentioned utilities also have the potential to strongly degrade the robustness of the others. This research advances a multi-stakeholder Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM) framework to better account for deeply uncertain factors when identifying cooperative management strategies. Results show that the sampling of deeply uncertain factors in the computational search phase of MORDM can aid in the discovery of management actions that substantially improve the robustness of individual utilities as well as the overall region to water scarcity. Cooperative water transfers, financial risk mitigation tools, and coordinated regional demand management must be explored jointly to decrease robustness conflicts between the utilities. The insights from this work have general merit for regions where adjacent municipalities can benefit from cooperative regional water portfolio planning.

  4. Reducing the uncertainty in background marine aerosol radiative properties using CAM5 model results and CALIPSO-retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meskhidze, N.; Gantt, B.; Dawson, K.; Johnson, M. S.; Gasso, S.

    2012-12-01

    Abundance of natural aerosols in the atmosphere strongly affects global aerosol optical depth (AOD) and influences clouds and the hydrological cycle through its ability to act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Because the anthropogenic contribution to climate forcing represents the difference between the total forcing and that from natural aerosols, understanding background aerosols is necessary to evaluate the influences of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud reflectivity and persistence (so-called indirect radiative forcing). The effects of marine aerosols are explored using remotely sensed data obtained by Cloud-aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) and the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5.0), coupled with the PNNL Modal Aerosol Model. CALIPSO-provided high resolution vertical profile information about different aerosol subtypes (defined as clean continental, marine, desert dust, polluted continental, polluted dust, and biomass burning), particulate depolarization ratio (or particle non-sphericity), reported aerosol color ratio (the ratio of aerosol backscatter at the two wavelengths) and lidar ratios over different parts of the oceans are compared to model-simulations to help evaluate the contribution of biogenic aerosol to CCN budget in the marine boundary layer. Model-simulations show that over biologically productive ocean waters primary organic aerosols of marine origin can contribute up to a 20% increase in CCN (at a supersaturation of 0.2%) number concentrations. Corresponding changes associated with cloud properties (liquid water path and droplet number) can decrease global annual mean indirect radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosol (less cooling) by ~0.1 Wm-2 (7%). This study suggests ignoring the complex chemical composition and size distribution of sea spray particles could result in considerable uncertainties in predicted anthropogenic aerosol indirect effect.

  5. A reduced model for ion temperature gradient turbulent transport in helical plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nunami, M.; Watanabe, T.-H.; Sugama, H.

    2013-07-01

    A novel reduced model for ion temperature gradient (ITG) turbulent transport in helical plasmas is presented. The model enables one to predict nonlinear gyrokinetic simulation results from linear gyrokinetic analyses. It is shown from nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations of the ITG turbulence in helical plasmas that the transport coefficient can be expressed as a function of the turbulent fluctuation level and the averaged zonal flow amplitude. Then, the reduced model for the turbulent ion heat diffusivity is derived by representing the nonlinear turbulent fluctuations and zonal flow amplitude in terms of the linear growth rate of the ITG instability and the linear response of the zonal flow potentials. It is confirmed that the reduced transport model results are in good agreement with those from nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations for high ion temperature plasmas in the Large Helical Device. (author)

  6. Use of extremity insulation during whole body hyperthermia to reduce temperature nonuniformity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thrall, D.E.; Page, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The author previously documented during whole body hyperthermia in dogs using a radiant heating device that temperature at superficial sites, including tibial bone marrow, falls below systemic arterial temperature during the plateau phase of heating. This may be due to direct heat loss to the environment. Sites where temperature is lower than systemic arterial temperature during the plateau phase may become sanctuary sites where tumor deposits are spared because they do not receive the prescribed thermal dose. In an attempt to decrease temperature nonuniformity and increase thermal dose delivered to such superficial sites, extremity insulation has been employed during whole body hyperthermia in dogs. The author measured temperature at cutaneous and subcutaneous sites and within tibial bone marrow in insulated and noninsulated extremities of dogs undergoing whole body hyperthermia in the radiant heating device. The author found that extremity insulation is effective in reducing extremity temperature nonuniformity. Specific results are presented. Extremity insulation may be necessary during whole body hyperthermia to assure that extremity tumor deposits receive a thermal dose similar to that prescribed for the entire body

  7. Low threading dislocation density aluminum nitride on silicon carbide through the use of reduced temperature interlayers

    KAUST Repository

    Foronda, Humberto M.

    2017-11-23

    In this work, reduced threading dislocation density AlN on (0 0 0 1) 6H-SiC was realized through the use of reduced temperature AlN interlayers in the metalorganic chemical vapor deposition growth. We explored the dependence of the interlayer growth temperature on the AlN crystal quality, defect density, and surface morphology. The crystal quality was characterized using omega rocking curve scans and the threading dislocation density was determined by plan view transmission electron microscopy. The growth resulted in a threading dislocation density of 7 × 108 cm−2 indicating a significant reduction in the defect density of AlN in comparison to direct growth of AlN on SiC (∼1010 cm−2). Atomic force microscopy images demonstrated a clear step-terrace morphology that is consistent with step flow growth at high temperature. Reducing the interlayer growth temperature increased the TD inclination and thus enhanced TD-TD interactions. The TDD was decreased via fusion and annihilation reactions.

  8. Predicting Comfort Temperature in Indonesia, an Initial Step to Reduce Cooling Energy Consumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tri Harso Karyono

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia has no reliable thermal comfort standard that is based on research works. The current national standard (SNI 6390:2011 states only a single range of comfort temperature that is 25.5 °C Ta, with a range of +1.5 °C Ta. Previous thermal studies in a number of different buildings in Indonesia showed that the neutral (comfort temperatures of subjects were about 27 to 28 °C, which is higher than the values stated in the standard. As a big country with various ambient temperatures, Indonesian needs a better and more reliable thermal comfort predictor which can be applied properly across the country. This study is an attempt to propose an initial Indonesian thermal predictor, in the form of a simple equation, which could predict comfort temperatures properly across the country. Reanalysing the previous comfort studies in Indonesia, a simple regression equation is constructed as to be used as the initial Indonesian comfort predictor. Using this predictor, the comfort temperatures in a lowland or coastal cities like Jakarta is found to be higher than the current comfort standard. It is expected that this predictor would help to provide a better indoor thermal environment and at the same reduce the cooling energy in air conditioning (AC building, thus reducing a building’s carbon emissions.

  9. Low LET radiolysis escape yields for reducing radicals and H2 in pressurized high temperature water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterniczuk, Marcin; Yakabuskie, Pamela A.; Wren, J. Clara; Jacob, Jasmine A.; Bartels, David M.

    2016-04-01

    Low Linear Energy Transfer (LET) radiolysis escape yields (G values) are reported for the sum (G(radH)+G(e-)aq) and for G(H2) in subcritical water up to 350 °C. The scavenger system 1-10 mM acetate/0.001 M hydroxide/0.00048 M N2O was used with simultaneous mass spectroscopic detection of H2 and N2 product. Temperature-dependent measurements were carried out with 2.5 MeV electrons from a van de Graaff accelerator, while room temperature calibration measurements were done with a 60Co gamma source. The concentrations and dose range were carefully chosen so that initial spur chemistry is not perturbed and the N2 product yield corresponds to those reducing radicals that escape recombination in pure water. In comparison with a recent review recommendation of Elliot and Bartels (AECL report 153-127160-450-001, 2009), the measured reducing radical yield is seven percent smaller at room temperature but in fairly good agreement above 150 °C. The H2 escape yield is in good agreement throughout the temperature range with several previous studies that used much larger radical scavenging rates. Previous analysis of earlier high temperature measurements of Gesc(radOH) is shown to be flawed, although the actual G values may be nearly correct. The methodology used in the present report greatly reduces the range of possible error and puts the high temperature escape yields for low-LET radiation on a much firmer quantitative foundation than was previously available.

  10. The fourth research co-ordination meeting (RCM) on 'Updated codes and methods to reduce the calculational uncertainties of liquid metal fast reactors reactivity effects'. Working material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The fourth Research Co-ordination Meeting (RCM) of the Co-ordinated Research Project (CRP) on 'Updated Codes and Methods to Reduce the Calculational Uncertainties of the LMFR Reactivity Effect' was held during 19-23 May, 2003 in Obninsk, Russian Federation. The general objective of the CRP is to validate, verify and improve methodologies and computer codes used for the calculation of reactivity coefficients in fast reactors aiming at enhancing the utilization of plutonium and minor actinides. The first RCM took place in Vienna on 24 - 26 November 1999. The meeting was attended by 19 participants from 7 Member States and one from an international organization (France, Germany, India, Japan, Rep. of Korea, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and IAEA). The participants from two Member States (China and the U.S.A.) provided their results and presentation materials even though being absent at the meeting. The results for several relevant reactivity parameters obtained by the participants with their own state-of-the-art basic data and codes, were compared in terms of calculational uncertainty, and their effects on the ULOF transient behavior of the hybrid BN- 600 core were evaluated. Contributions of the participants in the benchmark analyses is shown. This report first addresses the benchmark definitions and specifications given for each Phase and briefly introduces the basic data, computer codes, and methodologies applied to the benchmark analyses by various participants. Then, the results obtained by the participants in terms of calculational uncertainty and their effect on the core transient behavior are intercompared. Finally it addresses some conclusions drawn in the benchmarks

  11. Impact of Reducing Polarimetric SAR Input on the Uncertainty of Crop Classifications Based on the Random Forests Algorithm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loosvelt, Lien; Peters, Jan; Skriver, Henning

    2012-01-01

    Although the use of multidate polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data for highly accurate land cover classification has been acknowledged in the literature, the high dimensionality of the data set remains a major issue. This study presents two different strategies to reduce the number...... acquired by the Danish EMISAR on four dates within the period April to July in 1998. The predictive capacity of each feature is analyzed by the importance score generated by random forests (RF). Results show that according to the variation in importance score over time, a distinction can be made between...... general and specific features for crop classification. Based on the importance ranking, features are gradually removed from the single-date data sets in order to construct several multidate data sets with decreasing dimensionality. In the accuracy-oriented and efficiency-oriented reduction, the input...

  12. Unconventional energy resources in a crowded subsurface: Reducing uncertainty and developing a separation zone concept for resource estimation and deep 3D subsurface planning using legacy mining data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaghan, Alison A

    2017-12-01

    Over significant areas of the UK and western Europe, anthropogenic alteration of the subsurface by mining of coal has occurred beneath highly populated areas which are now considering a multiplicity of 'low carbon' unconventional energy resources including shale gas and oil, coal bed methane, geothermal energy and energy storage. To enable decision making on the 3D planning, licensing and extraction of these resources requires reduced uncertainty around complex geology and hydrogeological and geomechanical processes. An exemplar from the Carboniferous of central Scotland, UK, illustrates how, in areas lacking hydrocarbon well production data and 3D seismic surveys, legacy coal mine plans and associated boreholes provide valuable data that can be used to reduce the uncertainty around geometry and faulting of subsurface energy resources. However, legacy coal mines also limit unconventional resource volumes since mines and associated shafts alter the stress and hydrogeochemical state of the subsurface, commonly forming pathways to the surface. To reduce the risk of subsurface connections between energy resources, an example of an adapted methodology is described for shale gas/oil resource estimation to include a vertical separation or 'stand-off' zone between the deepest mine workings, to ensure the hydraulic fracturing required for shale resource production would not intersect legacy coal mines. Whilst the size of such separation zones requires further work, developing the concept of 3D spatial separation and planning is key to utilising the crowded subsurface energy system, whilst mitigating against resource sterilisation and environmental impacts, and could play a role in positively informing public and policy debate. Copyright © 2017 British Geological Survey, a component institute of NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. TH-C-BRD-05: Reducing Proton Beam Range Uncertainty with Patient-Specific CT HU to RSP Calibrations Based On Single-Detector Proton Radiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doolan, P [University College London, London (United Kingdom); Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA (United States); Sharp, G; Testa, M; Lu, H-M [Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA (United States); Bentefour, E [Ion Beam Applications (IBA), Louvain la Neuve (Belgium); Royle, G [University College London, London (United Kingdom)

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: Beam range uncertainty in proton treatment comes primarily from converting the patient's X-ray CT (xCT) dataset to relative stopping power (RSP). Current practices use a single curve for this conversion, produced by a stoichiometric calibration based on tissue composition data for average, healthy, adult humans, but not for the individual in question. Proton radiographs produce water-equivalent path length (WEPL) maps, dependent on the RSP of tissues within the specific patient. This work investigates the use of such WEPL maps to optimize patient-specific calibration curves for reducing beam range uncertainty. Methods: The optimization procedure works on the principle of minimizing the difference between the known WEPL map, obtained from a proton radiograph, and a digitally-reconstructed WEPL map (DRWM) through an RSP dataset, by altering the calibration curve that is used to convert the xCT into an RSP dataset. DRWMs were produced with Plastimatch, an in-house developed software, and an optimization procedure was implemented in Matlab. Tests were made on a range of systems including simulated datasets with computed WEPL maps and phantoms (anthropomorphic and real biological tissue) with WEPL maps measured by single detector proton radiography. Results: For the simulated datasets, the optimizer showed excellent results. It was able to either completely eradicate or significantly reduce the root-mean-square-error (RMSE) in the WEPL for the homogeneous phantoms (to zero for individual materials or from 1.5% to 0.2% for the simultaneous optimization of multiple materials). For the heterogeneous phantom the RMSE was reduced from 1.9% to 0.3%. Conclusion: An optimization procedure has been designed to produce patient-specific calibration curves. Test results on a range of systems with different complexities and sizes have been promising for accurate beam range control in patients. This project was funded equally by the Engineering and Physical Sciences

  14. Opportunities to Reduce Air-Conditioning Loads Through Lower Cabin Soak Temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farrington, R.; Cuddy, M.; Keyser, M.; Rugh, J.

    1999-01-01

    Air-conditioning loads can significantly reduce electric vehicle (EV) range and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) fuel economy. In addition, a new U. S. emissions procedure, called the Supplemental Federal Test Procedure (SFTP), has provided the motivation for reducing the size of vehicle air-conditioning systems in the United States. The SFTP will measure tailpipe emissions with the air-conditioning system operating. If the size of the air-conditioning system is reduced, the cabin soak temperature must also be reduced, with no penalty in terms of passenger thermal comfort. This paper presents the impact of air-conditioning on EV range and HEV fuel economy, and compares the effectiveness of advanced glazing and cabin ventilation. Experimental and modeled results are presented

  15. Reduced uncertainty of regional scale CLM predictions of net carbon fluxes and leaf area indices with estimated plant-specific parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Hanna; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun; Baatz, Roland; Montzka, Carsten; Schmidt, Marius; Vereecken, Harry

    2016-04-01

    Reliable estimates of carbon fluxes and states at regional scales are required to reduce uncertainties in regional carbon balance estimates and to support decision making in environmental politics. In this work the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5-BGC) was applied at a high spatial resolution (1 km2) for the Rur catchment in western Germany. In order to improve the model-data consistency of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and leaf area index (LAI) for this study area, five plant functional type (PFT)-specific CLM4.5-BGC parameters were estimated with time series of half-hourly NEE data for one year in 2011/2012, using the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The parameters were estimated separately for four different plant functional types (needleleaf evergreen temperate tree, broadleaf deciduous temperate tree, C3-grass and C3-crop) at four different sites. The four sites are located inside or close to the Rur catchment. We evaluated modeled NEE for one year in 2012/2013 with NEE measured at seven eddy covariance sites in the catchment, including the four parameter estimation sites. Modeled LAI was evaluated by means of LAI derived from remotely sensed RapidEye images of about 18 days in 2011/2012. Performance indices were based on a comparison between measurements and (i) a reference run with CLM default parameters, and (ii) a 60 instance CLM ensemble with parameters sampled from the DREAM posterior probability density functions (pdfs). The difference between the observed and simulated NEE sum reduced 23% if estimated parameters instead of default parameters were used as input. The mean absolute difference between modeled and measured LAI was reduced by 59% on average. Simulated LAI was not only improved in terms of the absolute value but in some cases also in terms of the timing (beginning of vegetation onset), which was directly related to a substantial improvement of the NEE estimates in

  16. Utility of population models to reduce uncertainty and increase value relevance in ecological risk assessments of pesticides: an example based on acute mortality data for daphnids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Niklas; Stark, John D

    2012-04-01

    Traditionally, ecological risk assessments (ERA) of pesticides have been based on risk ratios, where the predicted concentration of the chemical is compared to the concentration that causes biological effects. The concentration that causes biological effect is mostly determined from laboratory experiments using endpoints on the level of the individual (e.g., mortality and reproduction). However, the protection goals are mostly defined at the population level. To deal with the uncertainty in the necessary extrapolations, safety factors are used. Major disadvantages with this simplified approach is that it is difficult to relate a risk ratio to the environmental protection goals, and that the use of fixed safety factors can result in over- as well as underprotective assessments. To reduce uncertainty and increase value relevance in ERA, it has been argued that population models should be used more frequently. In the present study, we have used matrix population models for 3 daphnid species (Ceriodaphnia dubia, Daphnia magna, and D. pulex) to reduce uncertainty and increase value relevance in the ERA of a pesticide (spinosad). The survival rates in the models were reduced in accordance with data from traditional acute mortality tests. As no data on reproductive effects were available, the conservative assumption that no reproduction occurred during the exposure period was made. The models were used to calculate the minimum population size and the time to recovery. These endpoints can be related to the European Union (EU) protection goals for aquatic ecosystems in the vicinity of agricultural fields, which state that reversible population level effects are acceptable if there is recovery within an acceptable (undefined) time frame. The results of the population models were compared to the acceptable (according to EU documents) toxicity exposure ratio (TER) that was based on the same data. At the acceptable TER, which was based on the most sensitive species (C. dubia

  17. Temperature-Dependent Alkyl Glycerol Ether Lipid Composition of Mesophilic and Thermophilic Sulfate-Reducing Bacteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnauld Vinçon-Laugier

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of non-isoprenoid alkyl glycerol ether lipids in Bacteria and natural environments is increasingly being reported and the specificity and diagenetic stability of these lipids make them powerful biomarkers for biogeochemical and environmental studies. Yet the environmental controls on the biosynthesis of these peculiar membrane lipids remain poorly documented. Here, the lipid content of two mesophilic (Desulfatibacillum aliphaticivorans and Desulfatibacillum alkenivorans and one thermophilic (Thermodesulfobacterium commune sulfate-reducing bacteria—whose membranes are mostly composed of ether lipids—was investigated as a function of growth temperature (20–40°C and 54–84°C, respectively. For all strains, the cellular lipid content was lower at sub- or supra-optimal growth temperature, but the relative proportions of dialkyl glycerols, monoalkyl glycerols and fatty acids remained remarkably stable whatever the growth temperature. Rather than changing the proportions of the different lipid classes, the three strains responded to temperature changes by modifying the average structural composition of the alkyl and acyl chains constitutive of their membrane lipids. Major adaptive mechanisms concerned modifications of the level of branching and of the proportions of the different methyl branched lipids. Specifically, an increase in temperature induced mesophilic strains to produce less dimethyl branched dialkyl glycerols and 10-methyl branched lipids relative to linear structures, and the thermophilic strain to decrease the proportion of anteiso relative to iso methyl branched compounds. These modifications were in agreement with a regulation of the membrane fluidity. In one mesophilic and the thermophilic strains, a modification of the growth temperature further induced changes in the relative proportions of sn-2 vs sn-1 monoalkyl glycerols, suggesting an unprecedented mechanism of homeoviscous adaptation in Bacteria. Strong

  18. Temperature dependent thermoelectric property of reduced graphene oxide-polyaniline composite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitra, Mousumi, E-mail: mousumimitrabesu@gmail.com; Banerjee, Dipali, E-mail: dipalibanerjeebesu@gmail.com [Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Engineering Science and Technology (IIEST), Howrah-711103 (India); Kargupta, Kajari, E-mail: karguptakajari2010@gmail.com [Department of Chemical Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata (India); Ganguly, Saibal, E-mail: gangulysaibal2011@gmail.com [Chemical Engineering department, Universiti Teknologi Petronas, Perak, Tronoh (Malaysia)

    2016-05-06

    A composite material of reduced graphene oxide (rG) nanosheets with polyaniline (PANI) protonated by 5-sulfosalicylic acid has been synthesized via in situ oxidative polymerization method. The morphological and spectral characterizations have been done using FESEM and XRD measurements. The thermoelectric (TE) properties of the reduced graphene oxide-polyaniline composite (rG-P) has been studied in the temperature range from 300-400 K. The electrical conductivity and the Seebeck coefficient of rG-P is higher than the of pure PANI, while the thermal conductivity of the composite still keeps much low value ensuing an increase in the dimensionless figure of merit (ZT) in the whole temperature range.

  19. Study on Increasing High Temperature pH(t) to Reduce Iron Corrosion Products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Dong Man; Hur, Nam Yong; Kim, Waang Bae

    2011-01-01

    The transportation and deposition of iron corrosion products are important elements that affect both the steam generator (SG) integrity and secondary system in pressurized water reactor (PWR) nuclear power plants. Most of iron corrosion products are generated on carbon steel materials due to flow accelerated corrosion (FAC). The several parameters like water chemistry, temperature, hydrodynamic, and steel composition affect FAC. It is well established that the at-temperature pH of the deaerated water system has a first order effect on the FAC rate of carbon steels through nuclear industry researches. In order to reduce transportation and deposition of iron corrosion products, increasing pH(t) tests were applied on secondary system of A, B units. Increasing pH(t) successfully reduced flow accelerated corrosion. The effect of increasing pH(t) to inhibit FAC was identified through the experiment and pH(t) evaluation in this paper

  20. Reducibility of ceria-lanthana mixed oxides under temperature programmed hydrogen and inert gas flow conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernal, S.; Blanco, G.; Cifredo, G.; Perez-Omil, J.A.; Pintado, J.M.; Rodriguez-Izquierdo, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    The present paper deals with the preparation and characterization of La/Ce mixed oxides, with La molar contents of 20, 36 and 57%. We carry out the study of the structural, textural and redox properties of the mixed oxides, comparing our results with those for pure ceria. For this aim we use temperature programmed reduction (TPR), temperature programmed desorption (TPD), nitrogen physisorption at 77 K, X-ray diffraction and high resolution electron microscopy. The mixed oxides are more easy to reduce in a flow of hydrogen than ceria. Moreover, in an inert gas flow they release oxygen in higher amounts and at lower temperatures than pure CeO 2 . The textural stability of the mixed oxides is also improved by incorporation of lanthana. All these properties make the ceria-lanthana mixed oxides interesting alternative candidates to substitute ceria in three-way catalyst formulations. (orig.)

  1. The Effect of Annealing Temperature on Nickel on Reduced Graphene Oxide Catalysts on Urea Electrooxidation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glass, Dean E.; Galvan, Vicente; Prakash, G.K. Surya

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Nickel was reduced on graphene oxide and annealed under argon from 300 to 700 °C. •Nickel was oxidized from the removal of oxygen groups on the graphene oxide. •Higher annealed catalysts displayed decreased urea electrooxidation currents. •Micro direct urea/hydrogen peroxide fuel cells were employed for the first time. •Ni/rGO catalysts displayed enhanced fuel cell performance than the bare nickel. -- Abstract: The annealing temperature effects on nickel on reduced graphene oxide (Ni/rGO) catalysts for urea electrooxidation were investigated. Nickel chloride was directly reduced in an aqueous solution of graphene oxide (GO) followed by annealing under argon at 300, 400, 500, 600, and 700 °C, respectively. X-ray Diffraction (XRD) patterns revealed an increase in the crystallite size of the nickel nanoparticles while the Raman spectra displayed an increase in the graphitic disorder of the reduced graphene oxide at higher annealing temperatures due to the removal of oxygen functional groups. The Ni/rGO catalysts annealed at higher temperatures displayed oxidized nickel surface characteristics from the Ni 2p X-ray Photoelectron Spectra (XPS) due to the oxidation of the nickel from the oxygen functional groups in the graphitic lattice. In the half-cell testing, the onset potential of urea electrooxidation decreased while the urea electrooxidation currents decreased as the annealing temperature was increased. The nickel catalyst annealed at 700 °C displayed a 31% decrease in peak power density while the catalyst annealed at 300 °C displayed a 13% increase compared with the unannealed Ni/rGO catalyst in the micro direct urea/hydrogen peroxide fuel cells tests.

  2. Lower temperatures in cases with doors improve produce quality and safety with reduced energy consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Time-temperature control of fresh-cut produce at 41 °F (5 ºC) or less can significantly reduce the growth of human pathogens. Since 2009, the FDA Food Code has required that packaged ready-to-eat leafy greens be kept at 41 °F (5 ºC) or lower to minimize the potential of pathogen proliferation in the...

  3. Reducing uncertainties associated with filter-based optical measurements of light absorbing carbon particles with chemical information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engström, J. E.; Leck, C.

    2011-08-01

    The presented filter-based optical method for determination of soot (light absorbing carbon or Black Carbon, BC) can be implemented in the field under primitive conditions and at low cost. This enables researchers with small economical means to perform monitoring at remote locations, especially in the Asia where it is much needed. One concern when applying filter-based optical measurements of BC is that they suffer from systematic errors due to the light scattering of non-absorbing particles co-deposited on the filter, such as inorganic salts and mineral dust. In addition to an optical correction of the non-absorbing material this study provides a protocol for correction of light scattering based on the chemical quantification of the material, which is a novelty. A newly designed photometer was implemented to measure light transmission on particle accumulating filters, which includes an additional sensor recording backscattered light. The choice of polycarbonate membrane filters avoided high chemical blank values and reduced errors associated with length of the light path through the filter. Two protocols for corrections were applied to aerosol samples collected at the Maldives Climate Observatory Hanimaadhoo during episodes with either continentally influenced air from the Indian/Arabian subcontinents (winter season) or pristine air from the Southern Indian Ocean (summer monsoon). The two ways of correction (optical and chemical) lowered the particle light absorption of BC by 63 to 61 %, respectively, for data from the Arabian Sea sourced group, resulting in median BC absorption coefficients of 4.2 and 3.5 Mm-1. Corresponding values for the South Indian Ocean data were 69 and 97 % (0.38 and 0.02 Mm-1). A comparison with other studies in the area indicated an overestimation of their BC levels, by up to two orders of magnitude. This raises the necessity for chemical correction protocols on optical filter-based determinations of BC, before even the sign on the

  4. Reducing uncertainties associated with filter-based optical measurements of light absorbing carbon particles with chemical information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Engström

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The presented filter-based optical method for determination of soot (light absorbing carbon or Black Carbon, BC can be implemented in the field under primitive conditions and at low cost. This enables researchers with small economical means to perform monitoring at remote locations, especially in the Asia where it is much needed.

    One concern when applying filter-based optical measurements of BC is that they suffer from systematic errors due to the light scattering of non-absorbing particles co-deposited on the filter, such as inorganic salts and mineral dust. In addition to an optical correction of the non-absorbing material this study provides a protocol for correction of light scattering based on the chemical quantification of the material, which is a novelty. A newly designed photometer was implemented to measure light transmission on particle accumulating filters, which includes an additional sensor recording backscattered light. The choice of polycarbonate membrane filters avoided high chemical blank values and reduced errors associated with length of the light path through the filter.

    Two protocols for corrections were applied to aerosol samples collected at the Maldives Climate Observatory Hanimaadhoo during episodes with either continentally influenced air from the Indian/Arabian subcontinents (winter season or pristine air from the Southern Indian Ocean (summer monsoon. The two ways of correction (optical and chemical lowered the particle light absorption of BC by 63 to 61 %, respectively, for data from the Arabian Sea sourced group, resulting in median BC absorption coefficients of 4.2 and 3.5 Mm−1. Corresponding values for the South Indian Ocean data were 69 and 97 % (0.38 and 0.02 Mm−1. A comparison with other studies in the area indicated an overestimation of their BC levels, by up to two orders of magnitude. This raises the necessity for chemical correction protocols on optical filter

  5. Optimizing withdrawal from drinking water reservoirs to reduce downstream temperature pollution and reservoir hypoxia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, M; Rinke, K; Hipsey, M R; Boehrer, B

    2017-07-15

    Sustainable management of drinking water reservoirs requires balancing the demands of water supply whilst minimizing environmental impact. This study numerically simulates the effect of an improved withdrawal scheme designed to alleviate the temperature pollution downstream of a reservoir. The aim was to identify an optimal withdrawal strategy such that water of a desirable discharge temperature can be supplied downstream without leading to unacceptably low oxygen concentrations within the reservoir. First, we calibrated a one-dimensional numerical model for hydrodynamics and oxygen dynamics (GLM-AED2), verifying that the model reproduced water temperatures and hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen concentrations accurately over a 5 year period. Second, the model was extended to include an adaptive withdrawal functionality, allowing for a prescribed withdrawal temperature to be found, with the potential constraint of hypolimnetic oxygen concentration. Scenario simulations on epi-/metalimnetic withdrawal demonstrate that the model is able to autonomously determine the best withdrawal height depending on the thermal structure and the hypolimnetic oxygen concentration thereby optimizing the ability to supply a desirable discharge temperature to the downstream river during summer. This new withdrawal strategy also increased the hypolimnetic raw water volume to be used for drinking water supply, but reduced the dissolved oxygen concentrations in the deep and cold water layers (hypolimnion). Implications of the results for reservoir management are discussed and the numerical model is provided for operators as a simple and efficient tool for optimizing the withdrawal strategy within different reservoir contexts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Projected near-future levels of temperature and pCO2 reduce coral fertilization success.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Albright

    Full Text Available Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2 are projected to contribute to a 1.1-6.4°C rise in global average surface temperatures and a 0.14-0.35 reduction in the average pH of the global surface ocean by 2100. If realized, these changes are expected to have negative consequences for reef-building corals including increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching and reduced rates of calcification and reef accretion. Much less is known regarding the independent and combined effects of temperature and pCO2 on critical early life history processes such as fertilization. Here we show that increases in temperature (+3°C and pCO2 (+400 µatm projected for this century negatively impact fertilization success of a common Indo-Pacific coral species, Acropora tenuis. While maximum fertilization did not differ among treatments, the sperm concentration required to obtain 50% of maximum fertilization increased 6- to 8- fold with the addition of a single factor (temperature or CO2 and nearly 50- fold when both factors interact. Our results indicate that near-future changes in temperature and pCO2 narrow the range of sperm concentrations that are capable of yielding high fertilization success in A. tenuis. Increased sperm limitation, in conjunction with adult population decline, may have severe consequences for coral reproductive success. Impaired sexual reproduction will further challenge corals by inhibiting population recovery and adaptation potential.

  7. Reducing the ordering temperature of CoPt nanoparticles by B additive

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khemjeen, Yutthaya [Materials Science and Nanotechnology Program, Faculty of Science, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002 (Thailand); Pinitsoontorn, Supree, E-mail: psupree@kku.ac.th; Chompoosor, Apiwat [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002 (Thailand); Integrated Nanotechnology Research Center, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002 (Thailand); Nanotec-KKU Center of Excellence on Advanced Nanomaterials for Energy Production and Storage, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002 (Thailand); Maensiri, Santi [School of Physics, Institute of Science, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand)

    2014-08-07

    We reported the effect of boron addition on magnetic properties and structure of CoPt nanoparticles prepared by a polyol method. The magnetic property measurement showed that the CoPt-B sample exhibited a much larger coercivity compared to the sample without B additive at the same annealing temperature. Transmission electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy revealed that the average particle size was about 2 nm for the as-synthesized sample with the ratio of Co and Pt close to 1:1. After annealing, the particle sizes increased but the composition was maintained. The phase transformation of the nanoparticles versus temperature was investigated using a combination of X-ray diffraction and in-situ X-ray absorption analysis. It was shown that the phase transition temperature at which the nanoparticles change from the disordered A1 phase to the ordered L1{sub 0} phase occurs at temperature of 600 °C. We concluded that boron additives could reduce the ordering temperature of CoPt of about 100 °C.

  8. Increasing temperature reduces the coupling between available nitrogen and phosphorus in soils of Chinese grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Yan; Baumann, Frank; Song, Chao; Zhang, Mi; Shi, Yue; Kühn, Peter; Scholten, Thomas; He, Jin-Sheng

    2017-03-01

    Changes in climatic conditions along geographical gradients greatly affect soil nutrient cycling processes. Yet how climate regimes such as changes in temperature influence soil nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations and their stoichiometry is not well understood. This study investigated the spatial pattern and variability of soil N and P availability as well as their coupling relationships at two soil layers (0-10 and 10-20 cm) along a 4000-km climate transect in two grassland biomes of China, the Inner Mongolian temperate grasslands and the Tibetan alpine grasslands. Our results found that in both grasslands, from cold to warm sites the amounts of soil total N, total P and available P all decreased. By contrast, the amount of available N was positively related to mean annual temperature in the Tibetan grasslands. Meanwhile, with increasing temperature ratio of available N to P significantly increased but the linear relationship between them was considerably reduced. Thus, increasing temperature may not only induce a stoichiometric shift but also loose the coupling between available N and P. This N-P decoupling under warmer conditions was more evident in the Tibetan alpine grasslands where P limitation might become more widespread relative to N as temperatures continue to rise.

  9. Enhanced and selective ammonia sensing of reduced graphene oxide based chemo resistive sensor at room temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Ramesh; Kaur, Amarjeet

    2016-05-01

    The reduced graphene oxide thin films were fabricated by using the spin coating method. The reduced graphene oxide samples were characterised by Raman studies to obtain corresponding D and G bands at 1360 and 1590 cm-1 respectively. Fourier transform infra-red (FTIR) spectra consists of peak corresponds to sp2 hybridisation of carbon atoms at 1560 cm-1. The reduced graphene oxide based chemoresistive sensor exhibited a p-type semiconductor behaviour in ambient conditions and showed good sensitivity to different concentration of ammonia from 25 ppm to 500 ppm and excellent selectivity at room temperature. The sensor displays selectivity to several hazardous vapours such as methanol, ethanol, acetone and hydrazine hydrate. The sensor demonstrated a sensitivity of 9.8 at 25 ppm concentration of ammonia with response time of 163 seconds.

  10. Enhanced and selective ammonia sensing of reduced graphene oxide based chemo resistive sensor at room temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Ramesh, E-mail: rameshphysicsdu@gmail.com; Kaur, Amarjeet, E-mail: amarkaur@physics.du.ac.in [Department of Physics and Astrophysics, University of Delhi, Delhi-110007 (India)

    2016-05-06

    The reduced graphene oxide thin films were fabricated by using the spin coating method. The reduced graphene oxide samples were characterised by Raman studies to obtain corresponding D and G bands at 1360 and 1590 cm{sup −1} respectively. Fourier transform infra-red (FTIR) spectra consists of peak corresponds to sp{sup 2} hybridisation of carbon atoms at 1560 cm{sup −1}. The reduced graphene oxide based chemoresistive sensor exhibited a p-type semiconductor behaviour in ambient conditions and showed good sensitivity to different concentration of ammonia from 25 ppm to 500 ppm and excellent selectivity at room temperature. The sensor displays selectivity to several hazardous vapours such as methanol, ethanol, acetone and hydrazine hydrate. The sensor demonstrated a sensitivity of 9.8 at 25 ppm concentration of ammonia with response time of 163 seconds.

  11. Reduce synthesis temperature and improve dispersion of YAG nanopowders based on the co-crystallization method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fan, G.F.; Tang, Y.Q.; Lu, W.Z., E-mail: lwz@mail.hust.edu.cn; Zhang, X.R.; Xu, X.

    2015-01-05

    Highlights: • YAG nanopowders were synthesized through a co-crystallization method. • A three-layer core–shell structure was made to lower the synthesis temperature. • PAA again reduced the synthesis temperature based on the core–shell structure. • YAG nanopowders were synthesized at 700 °C in normal apparatus. • Agglomeration was greatly improved by PAA. - Abstract: Pure yttrium aluminum garnet (YAG) nanopowders were synthesized at 950 °C from the co-crystallization precursor of Y(NO{sub 3}){sub 3}⋅6H{sub 2}O and Al(NO{sub 3}){sub 3}⋅9H{sub 2}O (nitrate process). When 17 wt.% of Y(NO{sub 3}){sub 3}⋅6H{sub 2}O was replaced by Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} nanopowders, so as to make up a three-layer core–shell structure of the precursor, the synthesis temperature was reduced to 850 °C (Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} process). Based on Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} process, further reducing the synthesis temperature to 700 °C was realized by adding polyacrylic acid (PAA, 50% M), which was used to shorten the distance of the metal ions and provide combustion heat (PAA process). TEM characterizations indicated that the powders produced through nitrate and Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} processes agglomerated, while the powders produced through PAA process were dispersed much better. The agglomerate size analysis results demonstrated that the powders produced through PAA process were with smaller agglomerate size and wider agglomerate size distribution than those through nitrate process or Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} process. And they were more likely to be sintered to YAG transparent ceramics.

  12. REDUCING UNCERTAINTIES IN MODEL PREDICTIONS VIA HISTORY MATCHING OF CO2 MIGRATION AND REACTIVE TRANSPORT MODELING OF CO2 FATE AT THE SLEIPNER PROJECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Chen

    2015-03-31

    An important question for the Carbon Capture, Storage, and Utility program is “can we adequately predict the CO2 plume migration?” For tracking CO2 plume development, the Sleipner project in the Norwegian North Sea provides more time-lapse seismic monitoring data than any other sites, but significant uncertainties still exist for some of the reservoir parameters. In Part I, we assessed model uncertainties by applying two multi-phase compositional simulators to the Sleipner Benchmark model for the uppermost layer (Layer 9) of the Utsira Sand and calibrated our model against the time-lapsed seismic monitoring data for the site from 1999 to 2010. Approximate match with the observed plume was achieved by introducing lateral permeability anisotropy, adding CH4 into the CO2 stream, and adjusting the reservoir temperatures. Model-predicted gas saturation, CO2 accumulation thickness, and CO2 solubility in brine—none were used as calibration metrics—were all comparable with the interpretations of the seismic data in the literature. In Part II & III, we evaluated the uncertainties of predicted long-term CO2 fate up to 10,000 years, due to uncertain reaction kinetics. Under four scenarios of the kinetic rate laws, the temporal and spatial evolution of CO2 partitioning into the four trapping mechanisms (hydrodynamic/structural, solubility, residual/capillary, and mineral) was simulated with ToughReact, taking into account the CO2-brine-rock reactions and the multi-phase reactive flow and mass transport. Modeling results show that different rate laws for mineral dissolution and precipitation reactions resulted in different predicted amounts of trapped CO2 by carbonate minerals, with scenarios of the conventional linear rate law for feldspar dissolution having twice as much mineral trapping (21% of the injected CO2) as scenarios with a Burch-type or Alekseyev et al.–type rate law for feldspar dissolution (11%). So far, most reactive transport modeling (RTM) studies for

  13. Deterministic uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    Uncertainties of computer results are of primary interest in applications such as high-level waste (HLW) repository performance assessment in which experimental validation is not possible or practical. This work presents an alternate deterministic approach for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs required for conventional statistical analysis. 7 refs., 1 fig

  14. High Temperature Elastic Properties of Reduced Activation Ferritic-Martensitic (RAFM) Steel Using Impulse Excitation Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, Haraprasanna; Raju, Subramanian; Hajra, Raj Narayan; Saibaba, Saroja

    2018-03-01

    The polycrystalline elastic constants of an indigenous variant of 9Cr-1W-based reduced activation ferritic-martensitic (RAFM) steel have been determined as a function of temperature from 298 K to 1323 K (25 °C to 1000 °C), using impulse excitation technique (IET). The three elastic constants namely, Young's modulus E, shear modulus G, and bulk modulus B, exhibited significant softening with increasing temperature, in a pronounced non-linear fashion. In addition, clearly marked discontinuities in their temperature variations are noticed in the region, where ferrite + carbides → austenite phase transformation occurred upon heating. Further, the incidence of austenite → martensite transformation upon cooling has also been marked by a step-like jump in both elastic E and shear moduli G. The martensite start M s and M f finish temperatures estimated from this study are, M s = 652 K (379 °C) and M f =580 K (307 °C). Similarly, the measured ferrite + carbide → austenite transformation onset ( Ac 1) and completion ( Ac 3) temperatures are found to be 1126 K and 1143 K (853 °C and 870 °C), respectively. The Poisson ratio μ exhibited distinct discontinuities at phase transformation temperatures; but however, is found to vary in the range 0.27 to 0.29. The room temperature estimates of E, G, and μ for normalized and tempered microstructure are found to be 219 GPa, 86.65 GPa, and 0.27, respectively. For the metastable austenite phase, the corresponding values are: 197 GPa, 76.5 GPa, and 0.29, respectively. The measured elastic properties as well as their temperature dependencies are found to be in good accord with reported estimates for other 9Cr-based ferritic-martensitic steel grades. Estimates of θ D el , the elastic Debye temperature and γ G, the thermal Grüneisen parameter obtained from measured bulk elastic properties are found to be θ D el = 465 K (192 °C) and γ G = 1.57.

  15. A cross-coupled-structure-based temperature sensor with reduced process variation sensitivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tie Meng; Cheng Xu, E-mail: tiemeng@mprc.pku.edu.c [Microprocessor Research and Development Center, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China)

    2009-04-15

    An innovative, thermally-insensitive phenomenon of cascaded cross-coupled structures is found. And a novel CMOS temperature sensor based on a cross-coupled structure is proposed. This sensor consists of two different ring oscillators. The first ring oscillator generates pulses that have a period, changing linearly with temperature. Instead of using the system clock like in traditional sensors, the second oscillator utilizes a cascaded cross-coupled structure to generate temperature independent pulses to capture the result from the first oscillator. Due to the compensation between the two ring oscillators, errors caused by supply voltage variations and systematic process variations are reduced. The layout design of the sensor is based on the TSMC13G process standard cell library. Only three inverters are modified for proper channel width tuning without any other custom design. This allows for an easy integration of the sensor into cell-based chips. Post-layout simulations results show that an error lower than +-1.1 deg. C can be achieved in the full temperature range from -40 to 120 deg. C. As shown by SPICE simulations, the thermal insensitivity of the cross-coupled inverters can be realized for various TSMC technologies: 0.25 mum, 0.18 mum, 0.13 mum, and 65 nm.

  16. Exogenous Nitrogen Addition Reduced the Temperature Sensitivity of Microbial Respiration without Altering the Microbial Community Composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Wei

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric nitrogen (N deposition is changing in both load quantity and chemical composition. The load effects have been studied extensively, whereas the composition effects remain poorly understood. We conducted a microcosm experiment to study how N chemistry affected the soil microbial community composition characterized by phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs and activity indicated by microbial CO2 release. Surface and subsurface soils collected from an old-growth subtropical forest were supplemented with three N-containing materials (ammonium, nitrate, and urea at the current regional deposition load (50 kg ha-1 yr-1 and incubated at three temperatures (10, 20, and 30°C to detect the interactive effects of N deposition and temperature. The results showed that the additions of N, regardless of form, did not alter the microbial PLFAs at any of the three temperatures. However, the addition of urea significantly stimulated soil CO2 release in the early incubation stage. Compared with the control, N addition consistently reduced the temperature dependency of microbial respiration, implying that N deposition could potentially weaken the positive feedback of the warming-stimulated soil CO2 release to the atmosphere. The consistent N effects for the surface and subsurface soils suggest that the effects of N on soil microbial communities may be independent of soil chemical contents and stoichiometry.

  17. Understanding uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lindley, Dennis V

    2013-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

  18. Damage behavior in helium-irradiated reduced-activation martensitic steels at elevated temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Fengfeng [Key Laboratory of Artificial Micro- and Nano-Structures of Ministry of Education, Hubei Nuclear Solid Physics Key Laboratory and School of Physics and Technology, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072 (China); Guo, Liping, E-mail: guolp@whu.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Artificial Micro- and Nano-Structures of Ministry of Education, Hubei Nuclear Solid Physics Key Laboratory and School of Physics and Technology, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072 (China); Chen, Jihong; Li, Tiecheng; Zheng, Zhongcheng [Key Laboratory of Artificial Micro- and Nano-Structures of Ministry of Education, Hubei Nuclear Solid Physics Key Laboratory and School of Physics and Technology, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072 (China); Yao, Z. [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Queen’s University, Kingston K7L 3N6, ON (Canada); Suo, Jinping [State Key Laboratory of Mould Technology, Institute of Materials Science and Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074 (China)

    2014-12-15

    Dislocation loops induced by helium irradiation at elevated temperatures in reduced-activation martensitic steels were investigated using transmission electron microscopy. Steels were irradiated with 100 keV helium ions to 0.8 dpa between 300 K and 723 K. At irradiation temperatures T{sub irr} ⩽ 573 K, small defects with both Burger vectors b = 1/2〈1 1 1〉 and b = 〈1 0 0〉 were observed, while at T{sub irr} ⩾ 623 K, the microstructure was dominated by large convoluted interstitial dislocation loops with b = 〈1 0 0〉. Only small cavities were found in the steels irradiated at 723 K.

  19. Effects of creep and oxidation on reduced modulus in high-temperature nanoindentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yan; Fang, Xufei; Lu, Siyuan; Yu, Qingmin; Hou, Guohui; Feng, Xue

    2016-01-01

    Nanoindentation tests were performed on single crystal Ni-based superalloy at temperatures ranging from 20 °C to 800 °C in inert environment. Load-displacement curves at temperatures higher than 500 °C exhibit obvious creep inferred by increasing displacements at load-holding segments. Load-displacement curves obtained at 800 °C also display negative unloading stiffness. Examination of the microstructure beneath the indented area using Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM) reveals abundant dislocation piling up as well as oxide formation on the substrate. A method considering the creep effect is proposed to calculate the reduced modulus. In addition, a dimensionless ratio relating indentation depth and oxide film thickness is introduced to explain the oxidation effect on the mechanical properties derived from the load-displacement curves.

  20. On the need for a time- and location-dependent estimation of the NDSI threshold value for reducing existing uncertainties in snow cover maps at different scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Härer, Stefan; Bernhardt, Matthias; Siebers, Matthias; Schulz, Karsten

    2018-05-01

    Knowledge of current snow cover extent is essential for characterizing energy and moisture fluxes at the Earth's surface. The snow-covered area (SCA) is often estimated by using optical satellite information in combination with the normalized-difference snow index (NDSI). The NDSI thereby uses a threshold for the definition if a satellite pixel is assumed to be snow covered or snow free. The spatiotemporal representativeness of the standard threshold of 0.4 is however questionable at the local scale. Here, we use local snow cover maps derived from ground-based photography to continuously calibrate the NDSI threshold values (NDSIthr) of Landsat satellite images at two European mountain sites of the period from 2010 to 2015. The Research Catchment Zugspitzplatt (RCZ, Germany) and Vernagtferner area (VF, Austria) are both located within a single Landsat scene. Nevertheless, the long-term analysis of the NDSIthr demonstrated that the NDSIthr at these sites are not correlated (r = 0.17) and different than the standard threshold of 0.4. For further comparison, a dynamic and locally optimized NDSI threshold was used as well as another locally optimized literature threshold value (0.7). It was shown that large uncertainties in the prediction of the SCA of up to 24.1 % exist in satellite snow cover maps in cases where the standard threshold of 0.4 is used, but a newly developed calibrated quadratic polynomial model which accounts for seasonal threshold dynamics can reduce this error. The model minimizes the SCA uncertainties at the calibration site VF by 50 % in the evaluation period and was also able to improve the results at RCZ in a significant way. Additionally, a scaling experiment shows that the positive effect of a locally adapted threshold diminishes using a pixel size of 500 m or larger, underlining the general applicability of the standard threshold at larger scales.

  1. Application of tire chips to reduce the temperature of secondary geomembranes in municipal solid waste landfills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoor, Azadeh; Rowe, R Kerry

    2012-05-01

    Heat generated by the biodegradation of waste and other chemical processes in a landfill can potentially affect the long-term performance of landfill liner system, in particular that of a high-density polyethylene geomembrane. In a double liner system, the difference in leachate exposure and temperature might improve the long-term performance of the secondary geomembrane compared to that of the primary geomembrane. However, in some cases, the temperature is likely to be high enough to substantially reduce the service-life of the secondary geomembrane. This study explores the possible effectiveness of using tire chips as thermal insulation between primary and secondary liners to reduce the temperature of secondary geomembranes as compared to traditional soil materials. Heat and contaminant migration analyses are performed for cases with no insulation and for cases in which a layer of soil or tire chips has been used as thermal insulation between the primary and secondary liners. The effect of insulation on prolonging the service-life of a secondary geomembrane and, consequently, on contaminant transport through a liner system is examined for the case of a volatile organic compound (dichloromethane) found in landfill leachate. The study suggests that the use of tire chips warrants consideration, however there are other practical issues that require consideration in the detailed design and construction of landfill liners. Issues such as finite service-life, low working temperature, excessive settlement, ability to generate internal heat, leaching of tire chips and limitations in performing electrical resistivity leak detection tests are identified. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Composite polymer membranes for proton exchange membrane fuel cells operating at elevated temperatures and reduced humidities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tao

    Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells (PEMFCs) are the leading candidate in the fuel cell technology due to the high power density, solid electrolyte, and low operational temperature. However, PEMFCs operating in the normal temperature range (60-80°C) face problems including poor carbon monoxide tolerance and heat rejection. The poisoning effect can be significantly relieved by operating the fuel cell at elevated temperature, which also improves the heat rejection and electrochemical kinetics. Low relative humidity (RH) operation is also desirable to simplify the reactant humidification system. However, at elevated temperatures, reduced RH PEMFC performance is seriously impaired due to irreversible water loss from presently employed state-of-the-art polymer membrane, Nafion. This thesis focuses on developing polymer electrolyte membranes with high water retention ability for operation in elevated temperature (110-150°C), reduced humidity (˜50%RH) PEMFCs. One approach is to alter Nafion by adding inorganic particles such as TiO2, SiO2, Zr(HPO 4)2, etc. While the presence of these materials in Nafion has proven beneficial, a reduction or no improvement in the PEMFC performance of Nafion/TiO2 and Nafion/Zr(HPO4)2 membranes is observed with reduced particle sizes or increased particle loadings in Nafion. It is concluded that the PEMFC performance enhancement associated with addition of these inorganic particles was not due to the particle hydrophilicity. Rather, the particle, partially located in the hydrophobic region of the membrane, benefits the cell performance by altering the membrane structure. Water transport properties of some Nafion composite membranes were investigated by NMR methods including pulsed field gradient spin echo diffusion, spin-lattice relaxation, and spectral measurements. Compared to unmodified Nafion, composite membranes materials exhibit longer longitudinal relaxation time constant T1. In addition to the Nafion material, sulfonated styrene

  3. Evaluating Uncertainties in Coronal Electron Temperature and Radial Speed Measurements Using a Simulation of the Bastille Day Eruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reginald, Nelson; St. Cyr, Orville; Davila, Joseph; Rastaetter, Lutz; Török, Tibor

    2018-05-01

    Obtaining reliable measurements of plasma parameters in the Sun's corona remains an important challenge for solar physics. We previously presented a method for producing maps of electron temperature and speed of the solar corona using K-corona brightness measurements made through four color filters in visible light, which were tested for their accuracies using models of a structured, yet steady corona. In this article we test the same technique using a coronal model of the Bastille Day (14 July 2000) coronal mass ejection, which also contains quiet areas and streamers. We use the coronal electron density, temperature, and flow speed contained in the model to determine two K-coronal brightness ratios at (410.3, 390.0 nm) and (423.3, 398.7 nm) along more than 4000 lines of sight. Now assuming that for real observations, the only information we have for each line of sight are these two K-coronal brightness ratios, we use a spherically symmetric model of the corona that contains no structures to interpret these two ratios for electron temperature and speed. We then compare the interpreted (or measured) values for each line of sight with the true values from the model at the plane of the sky for that same line of sight to determine the magnitude of the errors. We show that the measured values closely match the true values in quiet areas. However, in locations of coronal structures, the measured values are predictably underestimated or overestimated compared to the true values, but can nevertheless be used to determine the positions of the structures with respect to the plane of the sky, in front or behind. Based on our results, we propose that future white-light coronagraphs be equipped to image the corona using four color filters in order to routinely create coronal maps of electron density, temperature, and flow speed.

  4. Evidence for Reduced Fatigue Resistance of Contemporary Rotary Instruments Exposed to Body Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vasconcelos, Rafaela Andrade; Murphy, Sarah; Carvalho, Claudio Antonio Talge; Govindjee, Rajiv G; Govindjee, Sanjay; Peters, Ove A

    2016-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of 2 different temperatures (20°C and 37°C) on the cyclic fatigue life of rotary instruments and correlate the results with martensitic transformation temperatures. Contemporary nickel-titanium rotary instruments (n = 20 each and tip size #25, including Hyflex CM [Coltene, Cuyahoga Falls, OH], TRUShape [Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties, Tulsa, OK], Vortex Blue [Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties], and ProTaper Universal [Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties]) were tested for cyclic fatigue at room temperature (20°C ± 1°C) and at body temperature (37°C ± 1°C). Instruments were rotated until fracture occurred in a simulated canal with an angle curvature of about 60° and a radius curvature of 3 mm; the center of the curvature was 4.5 mm from the instrument tip. The number of cycles to fracture was measured. Phase transformation temperatures for 2 instruments of each brand were analyzed by differential scanning calorimetry. Data were analyzed using the t test and 1-way analysis of variance with the significance level set at 0.05. For the tested size and at 20°C, Hyflex CM showed the highest resistance to fracture; no significant difference was found between TRUShape and Vortex Blue, whereas ProTaper Universal showed the lowest resistance to fracture. At 37°C, resistance to fatigue fracture was significantly reduced, up to 85%, for the tested instruments (P rotary instruments tested. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Coralline algal physiology is more adversely affected by elevated temperature than reduced pH.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vásquez-Elizondo, Román Manuel; Enríquez, Susana

    2016-01-07

    In this study we analyzed the physiological responses of coralline algae to ocean acidification (OA) and global warming, by exposing algal thalli of three species with contrasting photobiology and growth-form to reduced pH and elevated temperature. The analysis aimed to discern between direct and combined effects, while elucidating the role of light and photosynthesis inhibition in this response. We demonstrate the high sensitivity of coralline algae to photodamage under elevated temperature and its severe consequences on thallus photosynthesis and calcification rates. Moderate levels of light-stress, however, were maintained under reduced pH, resulting in no impact on algal photosynthesis, although moderate adverse effects on calcification rates were still observed. Accordingly, our results support the conclusion that global warming is a stronger threat to algal performance than OA, in particular in highly illuminated habitats such as coral reefs. We provide in this study a quantitative physiological model for the estimation of the impact of thermal-stress on coralline carbonate production, useful to foresee the impact of global warming on coralline contribution to reef carbon budgets, reef cementation, coral recruitment and the maintenance of reef biodiversity. This model, however, cannot yet account for the moderate physiological impact of low pH on coralline calcification.

  6. Reducing NOx emissions from a biodiesel-fueled engine by use of low-temperature combustion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Tiegang; Lin, Yuan-Chung; Foong, Tien Mun; Lee, Chia-Fon

    2008-12-01

    Biodiesel is popularly discussed in many countries due to increased environmental awareness and the limited supply of petroleum. One of the main factors impacting general replacement of diesel by biodiesel is NOx (nitrogen oxides) emissions. Previous studies have shown higher NOx emissions relative to petroleum diesel in traditional direct-injection (DI) diesel engines. In this study, effects of injection timing and different biodiesel blends are studied for low load [2 bar IMEP (indicated mean effective pressure)] conditions. The results show that maximum heat release rate can be reduced by retarding fuel injection. Ignition and peak heat release rate are both delayed for fuels containing more biodiesel. Retarding the injection to post-TDC (top dead center) lowers the peak heat release and flattens the heat release curve. It is observed that low-temperature combustion effectively reduces NOx emissions because less thermal NOx is formed. Although biodiesel combustion produces more NOx for both conventional and late-injection strategies, with the latter leading to a low-temperature combustion mode, the levels of NOx of B20 (20 vol % soy biodiesel and 80 vol % European low-sulfur diesel), B50, and B100 all with post-TDC injection are 68.1%, 66.7%, and 64.4%, respectively, lower than pure European low-sulfur diesel in the conventional injection scenario.

  7. Can slow-diffusing solute atoms reduce vacancy diffusion in advanced high-temperature alloys?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goswami, Kamal Nayan; Mottura, Alessandro

    2014-01-01

    The high-temperature mechanical properties of precipitate-strengthened advanced alloys can be heavily influenced by adjusting chemical composition. The widely-accepted argument within the community is that, under certain temperature and loading conditions, plasticity occurs only in the matrix, and dislocations have to rely on thermally-activated climb mechanisms to overcome the barriers to glide posed by the hard precipitates. This is the case for γ′-strengthened Ni-based superalloys. The presence of dilute amounts of slow-diffusing solute atoms, such as Re and W, in the softer matrix phase is thought to reduce plasticity by retarding the climb of dislocations at the interface with the hard precipitate phase. One hypothesis is that the presence of these solutes must hinder the flow of vacancies, which are essential to the climb process. In this work, density functional theory calculations are used to inform two analytical models to describe the effect of solute atoms on the diffusion of vacancies. Results suggest that slow-diffusing solute atoms are not effective at reducing the diffusion of vacancies in these systems

  8. Coralline algal physiology is more adversely affected by elevated temperature than reduced pH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vásquez-Elizondo, Román Manuel; Enríquez, Susana

    2016-01-01

    In this study we analyzed the physiological responses of coralline algae to ocean acidification (OA) and global warming, by exposing algal thalli of three species with contrasting photobiology and growth-form to reduced pH and elevated temperature. The analysis aimed to discern between direct and combined effects, while elucidating the role of light and photosynthesis inhibition in this response. We demonstrate the high sensitivity of coralline algae to photodamage under elevated temperature and its severe consequences on thallus photosynthesis and calcification rates. Moderate levels of light-stress, however, were maintained under reduced pH, resulting in no impact on algal photosynthesis, although moderate adverse effects on calcification rates were still observed. Accordingly, our results support the conclusion that global warming is a stronger threat to algal performance than OA, in particular in highly illuminated habitats such as coral reefs. We provide in this study a quantitative physiological model for the estimation of the impact of thermal-stress on coralline carbonate production, useful to foresee the impact of global warming on coralline contribution to reef carbon budgets, reef cementation, coral recruitment and the maintenance of reef biodiversity. This model, however, cannot yet account for the moderate physiological impact of low pH on coralline calcification.

  9. Optimizing residence time, temperature and speed to improve TMP pulp properties and reduce energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sabourin, M.; Xu, E.; Cort, B.; Boileau, I.; Waller, A.

    1997-04-01

    The concept of reducing energy consumption in pulp mills by increasing the disc speed of refining has been established using single disc and double disc refiners in both pilot plant and mill applications. The RTS study evaluated in this paper reviews the effect of high-speed single disc refining coupled with shortdwell-high pressure retention conditions. Coupling these variables permitted evaluation of an optimum residence time, temperature and speed (RTS) operational window. The objective of the RTS conditions to sufficiently soften the wood chips through high temperature such that the fibre is more receptive to initial defiberization at high intensity. The improved pulp from the primary refiner at high intensity could potentially demonstrate improvements in physical pulp properties at a reduced specific energy requirement. The spruce/fir RTS-TMP described here required significantly less specific energy and produced TMP with slightly improved strength properties and equivalent optical properties compared to conventional TMP pulp. Studies on the radiate pine furnish indicated that the physical pulp property/specific energy relationships could be adjusted by manipulating the residence time. 4 refs., 10 tabs., 10 figs.

  10. Reducing the uncertainty of parameters controlling seasonal carbon and water fluxes in Chinese forests and its implication for simulated climate sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yue; Yang, Hui; Wang, Tao; MacBean, Natasha; Bacour, Cédric; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yiping; Zhou, Guangsheng; Piao, Shilong

    2017-08-01

    Reducing parameter uncertainty of process-based terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) is one of the primary targets for accurately estimating carbon budgets and predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. However, parameters in TEMs are rarely constrained by observations from Chinese forest ecosystems, which are important carbon sink over the northern hemispheric land. In this study, eddy covariance data from six forest sites in China are used to optimize parameters of the ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamics EcosystEms TEM. The model-data assimilation through parameter optimization largely reduces the prior model errors and improves the simulated seasonal cycle and summer diurnal cycle of net ecosystem exchange, latent heat fluxes, and gross primary production and ecosystem respiration. Climate change experiments based on the optimized model are deployed to indicate that forest net primary production (NPP) is suppressed in response to warming in the southern China but stimulated in the northeastern China. Altered precipitation has an asymmetric impact on forest NPP at sites in water-limited regions, with the optimization-induced reduction in response of NPP to precipitation decline being as large as 61% at a deciduous broadleaf forest site. We find that seasonal optimization alters forest carbon cycle responses to environmental change, with the parameter optimization consistently reducing the simulated positive response of heterotrophic respiration to warming. Evaluations from independent observations suggest that improving model structure still matters most for long-term carbon stock and its changes, in particular, nutrient- and age-related changes of photosynthetic rates, carbon allocation, and tree mortality.

  11. Waste Tyres as Heat Sink to Reduce the Driveway Surface Temperatures in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aniza Abdul Aziz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The development of roads and driveways are on the rise as automobiles are now a necessity to all. This excessive development with its requirements increased the urban heat temperature and the generation of waste tyres. Waste tyre management has therefore been taken seriously by developed countries and since the European directive to ban used tyre products and whole tire disposal from landfill in 2003 and 2006 respectively, many researchers have looked for alternative ways to use the waste tyre. In Malaysia, The Smart and Cool Home Developer attempted to develop an eco-house by utilising waste tyre as the foundation for the driveway and claimed that the buried tyres act as a heat sink for the concrete and reduce the surface temperature of the driveway. Hence investigations were conducted on two sample houses to investigate this phenomenon. Findings from this pilot study show that waste tyres do act as a heat sink to the concrete driveways which affect the ambient temperature and relative humidity of the immediate surroundings.

  12. Activation of temperature-sensitive TRPV1-like receptors in ARC POMC neurons reduces food intake.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Hoon Jeong

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Proopiomelanocortin (POMC neurons in the arcuate nucleus of the hypothalamus (ARC respond to numerous hormonal and neural signals, resulting in changes in food intake. Here, we demonstrate that ARC POMC neurons express capsaicin-sensitive transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 receptor (TRPV1-like receptors. To show expression of TRPV1-like receptors in ARC POMC neurons, we use single-cell reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR, immunohistochemistry, electrophysiology, TRPV1 knock-out (KO, and TRPV1-Cre knock-in mice. A small elevation of temperature in the physiological range is enough to depolarize ARC POMC neurons. This depolarization is blocked by the TRPV1 receptor antagonist and by Trpv1 gene knockdown. Capsaicin-induced activation reduces food intake that is abolished by a melanocortin receptor antagonist. To selectively stimulate TRPV1-like receptor-expressing ARC POMC neurons in the ARC, we generate an adeno-associated virus serotype 5 (AAV5 carrying a Cre-dependent channelrhodopsin-2 (ChR2-enhanced yellow fluorescent protein (eYFP expression cassette under the control of the two neuronal POMC enhancers (nPEs. Optogenetic stimulation of TRPV1-like receptor-expressing POMC neurons decreases food intake. Hypothalamic temperature is rapidly elevated and reaches to approximately 39 °C during treadmill running. This elevation is associated with a reduction in food intake. Knockdown of the Trpv1 gene exclusively in ARC POMC neurons blocks the feeding inhibition produced by increased hypothalamic temperature. Taken together, our findings identify a melanocortinergic circuit that links acute elevations in hypothalamic temperature with acute reductions in food intake.

  13. Reducing Parental Uncertainty Around Childhood Cancer: Implementation Decisions and Design Trade-Offs in Developing an Electronic Health Record-Linked Mobile App.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsolo, Keith; Shuman, William; Nix, Jeremy; Morrison, Caroline F; Mullins, Larry L; Pai, Ahna Lh

    2017-06-26

    Parents of children newly diagnosed with cancer are confronted with multiple stressors that place them at risk for significant psychological distress. One strategy that has been shown to help reduce uncertainty is the provision of basic information; however, families of newly diagnosed cancer patients are often bombarded with educational material. Technology has the potential to help families manage their informational needs and move towards normalization. The aim of this study was to create a mobile app that pulls together data from both the electronic health record (EHR) and vetted external information resources to provide tailored information to parents of newly diagnosed children as one method to reduce the uncertainty around their child's illness. This app was developed to be used by families in a National Institutes of Health (NIH)-funded randomized controlled trial (RCT) aimed at decreasing uncertainty and the subsequent psychological distress. A 2-phase qualitative study was conducted to elicit the features and content of the mobile app based on the needs and experience of parents of children newly diagnosed with cancer and their providers. Example functions include the ability to view laboratory results, look up appointments, and to access educational material. Educational material was obtained from databases maintained by the National Cancer Institute (NCI) as well as from groups like the Children's Oncology Group (COG) and care teams within Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center (CCHMC). The use of EHR-based Web services was explored to allow data like laboratory results to be retrieved in real-time. The ethnographic design process resulted in a framework that divided the content of the mobile app into the following 4 sections: (1) information about the patient's current treatment and other data from the EHR; (2) educational background material; (3) a calendar to view upcoming appointments at their medical center; and (4) a section where

  14. Basking hamsters reduce resting metabolism, body temperature and energy costs during rewarming from torpor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiser, Fritz; Gasch, Kristina; Bieber, Claudia; Stalder, Gabrielle L; Gerritsmann, Hanno; Ruf, Thomas

    2016-07-15

    Basking can substantially reduce thermoregulatory energy expenditure of mammals. We tested the hypothesis that the largely white winter fur of hamsters (Phodopus sungorus), originating from Asian steppes, may be related to camouflage to permit sun basking on or near snow. Winter-acclimated hamsters in our study were largely white and had a high proclivity to bask when resting and torpid. Resting hamsters reduced metabolic rate (MR) significantly (>30%) when basking at ambient temperatures (Ta) of ∼15 and 0°C. Interestingly, body temperature (Tb) also was significantly reduced from 34.7±0.6°C (Ta 15°C, not basking) to 30.4±2.0°C (Ta 0°C, basking), which resulted in an extremely low (thermal conductance. Induced torpor (food withheld) during respirometry at Ta 15°C occurred on 83.3±36.0% of days and the minimum torpor MR was 36% of basal MR at an average Tb of 22.0±2.6°C; movement to the basking lamp occurred at Tb50%) during radiant heat-assisted rewarming; however, radiant heat per se without an endogenous contribution by animals did not strongly affect metabolism and Tb during torpor. Our data show that basking substantially modifies thermal energetics in hamsters, with a drop of resting Tb and MR not previously observed and a reduction of rewarming costs. The energy savings afforded by basking in hamsters suggest that this behaviour is of energetic significance not only for mammals living in deserts, where basking is common, but also for P. sungorus and probably other cold-climate mammals. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  15. Measurement Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Michael

    Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.

  16. CREOLE experiment study on the reactivity temperature coefficient with sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the MCNP5 code and different neutron cross section evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulaich, Y.; El Bardouni, T.; Erradi, L.; Chakir, E.; Boukhal, H.; Nacir, B.; El Younoussi, C.; El Bakkari, B.; Merroun, O.; Zoubair, M.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → In the present work, we have analyzed the CREOLE experiment on the reactivity temperature coefficient (RTC) by using the three-dimensional continuous energy code (MCNP5) and the last updated nuclear data evaluations. → Calculation-experiment discrepancies of the RTC were analyzed and the results have shown that the JENDL3.3 and JEFF3.1 evaluations give the most consistent values. → In order to specify the source of the relatively large discrepancy in the case of ENDF-BVII nuclear data evaluation, the k eff discrepancy between ENDF-BVII and JENDL3.3 was decomposed by using sensitivity and uncertainty analysis technique. - Abstract: In the present work, we analyze the CREOLE experiment on the reactivity temperature coefficient (RTC) by using the three-dimensional continuous energy code (MCNP5) and the last updated nuclear data evaluations. This experiment performed in the EOLE critical facility located at CEA/Cadarache, was mainly dedicated to the RTC studies for both UO 2 and UO 2 -PuO 2 PWR type lattices covering the whole temperature range from 20 deg. C to 300 deg. C. We have developed an accurate 3D model of the EOLE reactor by using the MCNP5 Monte Carlo code which guarantees a high level of fidelity in the description of different configurations at various temperatures taking into account their consequence on neutron cross section data and all thermal expansion effects. In this case, the remaining error between calculation and experiment will be awarded mainly to uncertainties on nuclear data. Our own cross section library was constructed by using NJOY99.259 code with point-wise nuclear data based on ENDF-BVII, JEFF3.1 and JENDL3.3 evaluation files. The MCNP model was validated through the axial and radial fission rate measurements at room and hot temperatures. Calculation-experiment discrepancies of the RTC were analyzed and the results have shown that the JENDL3.3 and JEFF3.1 evaluations give the most consistent values; the discrepancy is

  17. Changes of NSSS control system setpoint for operation at reduced temperature at YGN 3 and 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, I. H.; Son, S. H.; Lee, K. C.; Son, J. J.; Seo, J. T.; Lee, S. H.; Park, W. K.; Hwang, H. C.; Lee, J. H.

    2003-01-01

    The differences of the design operational conditions and best estimate operational conditions, which were expected to be conditions during the plant operation, during the application of operation at reduced temperature at YGN 3 and 4 are larger than those during the construction period. Therefore, each sets of NSSS control system setpoints were generated for ORT design operational condition and for ORT best estimate operational condition. The analytical results shows that the plant performance requirements are satisfied by changing the NSSS control system setpoints for each operational conditions. The NSSS control system setpoints were changed after power operation after application of the ORT due to unexpected mismatch of plant conditions from the best estimate operational conditions. The plant conditions are needed to be monitored cycle by cycle for the detection of such conditions which requires the changing of the NSSS control system

  18. Burkholderia phytofirmans PsJN reduces damages to freezing temperature in Arabidopsis thaliana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan eSU

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Several plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR are known to improve plant tolerance to multiple stresses, including low temperatures. However, mechanisms underlying this protection are still poorly understood. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of the endophytic PGPR, Burkholderia phytofirmans strain PsJN (Bp PsJN, on Arabidopsis thaliana cold tolerance using photosynthesis parameters as physiological markers.Under standard conditions, our results indicated that Bp PsJN inoculation led to growth promotion of Arabidopsis plants without significant modification on photosynthesis parameters and chloroplast organization. However, bacterial colonization induced a cell wall strengthening in the mesophyllImpact of inoculation modes (either on seeds or by soil irrigation and their effects overnight at 0, -1 or -3°C, were investigated by following photosystem II (PSII activity and gas exchanges. Following low temperatures stress, a decrease of photosynthesis parameters was observed. In addition, during three consecutive nights or days at -1°C, PSII activity was monitored. Pigment contents, RuBisCO protein abundance, expression of several genes including RbcS, RbcL, CBF1, CBF2, CBF3, ICE1, COR15a, and COR78 were evaluated at the end of exposure. To assess the impact of the bacteria on cell ultrastructure under low temperatures, microscopic observations were achieved. Results indicated that freezing treatment induced significant changes in PSII activity as early as the first cold day, whereas the same impact on PSII activity was observed only during the third cold night. The significant effects conferred by PsJN were differential accumulation of pigments, and reduced expression of RbcL and COR78. Microscopical observations showed an alteration/disorganization in A. thaliana leaf mesophyll cells independently of the freezing treatments. The presence of bacteria during the three successive nights or days did not significantly improved A

  19. Transient turbid water mass reduces temperature-induced coral bleaching and mortality in Barbados

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallès, Henri

    2016-01-01

    Global warming is seen as one of the greatest threats to the world’s coral reefs and, with the continued rise in sea surface temperature predicted into the future, there is a great need for further understanding of how to prevent and address the damaging impacts. This is particularly so for countries whose economies depend heavily on healthy reefs, such as those of the eastern Caribbean. Here, we compare the severity of bleaching and mortality for five dominant coral species at six representative reef sites in Barbados during the two most significant warm-water events ever recorded in the eastern Caribbean, i.e., 2005 and 2010, and describe prevailing island-scale sea water conditions during both events. In so doing, we demonstrate that coral bleaching and subsequent mortality were considerably lower in 2010 than in 2005 for all species, irrespective of site, even though the anomalously warm water temperature profiles were very similar between years. We also show that during the 2010 event, Barbados was engulfed by a transient dark green turbid water mass of riverine origin coming from South America. We suggest that reduced exposure to high solar radiation associated with this transient water mass was the primary contributing factor to the lower bleaching and mortality observed in all corals. We conclude that monitoring these episodic mesoscale oceanographic features might improve risk assessments of southeastern Caribbean reefs to warm-water events in the future. PMID:27326377

  20. Thermophilic nitrate-reducing microorganisms prevent sulfate reduction in cold marine sediments incubated at high temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nepomnyashchaya, Yana; Rezende, Julia; Hubert, Casey

    2014-05-01

    Hydrogen sulphide produced during metabolism of sulphate-reducing microorganisms (SRM) is toxic, corrosive and causes detrimental oil reservoir souring. During secondary oil recovery, injecting oil reservoirs with seawater that is rich in sulphate and that also cools high temperature formations provides favourable growth conditions for SRM. Nitrate addition can prevent metabolism of SRM by stimulating nitrate-reducing microorganisms (NRM). The investigations of thermophilic NRM are needed to develop mechanisms to control the metabolism of SRM in high temperature oil field ecosystems. We therefore established a model system consisting of enrichment cultures of cold surface marine sediments from the Baltic Sea (Aarhus Bay) that were incubated at 60°C. Enrichments contained 25 mM nitrate and 40 mM sulphate as potential electron acceptors, and a mixture of the organic substrates acetate, lactate, propionate, butyrate (5 mM each) and yeast extract (0.01%) as potential carbon sources and electron donors. Slurries were incubated at 60°C both with and without initial pasteurization at 80°C for 2 hours. In the enrichments containing both nitrate and sulphate, the concentration of nitrate decreased indicating metabolic activity of NRM. After a four-hour lag phase the rate of nitrate reduction increased and the concentration of nitrate dropped to zero after 10 hours of incubation. The concentration of nitrite increased as the reduction of nitrate progressed and reached 16.3 mM after 12 hours, before being consumed and falling to 4.4 mM after 19-day of incubation. No evidence for sulphate reduction was observed in these cultures during the 19-day incubation period. In contrast, the concentration of sulphate decreased up to 50% after one week incubation in controls containing only sulphate but no nitrate. Similar sulfate reduction rates were seen in the pasteurized controls suggesting the presence of heat resistant SRM, whereas nitrate reduction rates were lower in the

  1. Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-04-01

    geophysical, future energy demand, and mitigation technology uncertainties. This information provides central information for policy making, since it helps to understand the relationship between mitigation costs and their potential to reduce the risk of exceeding 2°C, or other temperature limits like 3°C or 1.5°C, under a wide range of scenarios.

  2. Room-temperature synthesis and enhanced catalytic performance of silver-reduced graphene oxide nanohybrids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thu, Tran Viet; Ko, Pil Ju; Phuc, Nguyen Huu Huy; Sandhu, Adarsh

    2013-01-01

    The synthesis of supported, ultrasmall metallic nanoparticles (NPs) is of great importance for catalytic applications. In this study, silver-reduced graphene oxide nanohybrids (Ag–rGO NHs) were prepared by reducing Ag ions and graphene oxide (GO) at room temperature using sodium borohydride (NaBH 4 ) and trisodium citrate. The resulting products were characterized using UV–Vis spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The rich chemistry of GO surface provided many sites for the nucleation of Ag ions and efficiently limited their growth. Ag NPs were uniformly grown on basal planes of rGO with a high density (∼1,700 NPs μm −2 ) and well-defined size (3.6 ± 0.6 nm) as evidenced in SEM and HRTEM studies. The resulting Ag–rGO NHs were readily dispersed in water and exhibited enhanced catalytic activity toward the reduction of 4-nitrophenol by NaBH 4 in comparison to unsupported Ag NPs. The role of rGO as an excellent support for Ag catalyst is discussed

  3. Room-temperature synthesis and enhanced catalytic performance of silver-reduced graphene oxide nanohybrids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thu, Tran Viet, E-mail: thu@eiiris.tut.ac.jp; Ko, Pil Ju, E-mail: ko@eiiris.tut.ac.jp [Toyohashi University of Technology, Electronics-Inspired Interdisciplinary Research Institute (Japan); Phuc, Nguyen Huu Huy [Toyohashi University of Technology, Department of Electrical and Electronic Information Engineering (Japan); Sandhu, Adarsh [Toyohashi University of Technology, Electronics-Inspired Interdisciplinary Research Institute (Japan)

    2013-10-15

    The synthesis of supported, ultrasmall metallic nanoparticles (NPs) is of great importance for catalytic applications. In this study, silver-reduced graphene oxide nanohybrids (Ag-rGO NHs) were prepared by reducing Ag ions and graphene oxide (GO) at room temperature using sodium borohydride (NaBH{sub 4}) and trisodium citrate. The resulting products were characterized using UV-Vis spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The rich chemistry of GO surface provided many sites for the nucleation of Ag ions and efficiently limited their growth. Ag NPs were uniformly grown on basal planes of rGO with a high density ({approx}1,700 NPs {mu}m{sup -2}) and well-defined size (3.6 {+-} 0.6 nm) as evidenced in SEM and HRTEM studies. The resulting Ag-rGO NHs were readily dispersed in water and exhibited enhanced catalytic activity toward the reduction of 4-nitrophenol by NaBH{sub 4} in comparison to unsupported Ag NPs. The role of rGO as an excellent support for Ag catalyst is discussed.

  4. Effect of reducing agents on low-temperature synthesis of nanostructured LiFePO4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulka, Andrzej; Walczak, Katarzyna; Zając, Wojciech; Molenda, Janina

    2017-09-01

    Simple co-precipitation synthesis procedure yielding nanometric LiFePO4 with enhanced electrochemical properties without any post-synthesis heat treatment is presented. XRD, SEM and TEM analysis of the obtained powders revealed platelet crystallites and well crystalized bulk structure. Effective way of decreasing amount of Fe3+ containing phases by addition of reducing agents (KI, (NH4)2S2O3, glucose and the atmosphere of 5%H2-95%Ar) during low-temperature (107 °C) synthesis is described. The traditional analytical chemistry methods or the Mӧssbauer spectroscopy methods revealed that utilization of selected reducing agents diminished Fe3+ concentration from 25 to 12 at%. The constructed cells with optimized LiFePO4 as a cathode material showed superior electrochemical performances, including high reversible capacity up to 162 mAh/g at C/10 current discharge rate, flat voltage plateau with a value close to 3.45 V vs. Li0/+.

  5. Statistical Uncertainty Quantification of Physical Models during Reflood of LBLOCA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Deog Yeon; Seul, Kwang Won; Woo, Sweng Woong [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The use of the best-estimate (BE) computer codes in safety analysis for loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) is the major trend in many countries to reduce the significant conservatism. A key feature of this BE evaluation requires the licensee to quantify the uncertainty of the calculations. So, it is very important how to determine the uncertainty distribution before conducting the uncertainty evaluation. Uncertainty includes those of physical model and correlation, plant operational parameters, and so forth. The quantification process is often performed mainly by subjective expert judgment or obtained from reference documents of computer code. In this respect, more mathematical methods are needed to reasonably determine the uncertainty ranges. The first uncertainty quantification are performed with the various increments for two influential uncertainty parameters to get the calculated responses and their derivatives. The different data set with two influential uncertainty parameters for FEBA tests, are chosen applying more strict criteria for selecting responses and their derivatives, which may be considered as the user’s effect in the CIRCÉ applications. Finally, three influential uncertainty parameters are considered to study the effect on the number of uncertainty parameters due to the limitation of CIRCÉ method. With the determined uncertainty ranges, uncertainty evaluations for FEBA tests are performed to check whether the experimental responses such as the cladding temperature or pressure drop are inside the limits of calculated uncertainty bounds. A confirmation step will be performed to evaluate the quality of the information in the case of the different reflooding PERICLES experiments. The uncertainty ranges of physical model in MARS-KS thermal-hydraulic code during the reflooding were quantified by CIRCÉ method using FEBA experiment tests, instead of expert judgment. Also, through the uncertainty evaluation for FEBA and PERICLES tests, it was confirmed

  6. Increasing ocean temperatures reduce activity patterns of a large commercially important coral reef fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansen, J L; Messmer, V; Coker, D J; Hoey, A S; Pratchett, M S

    2014-04-01

    Large-bodied fish are critical for sustaining coral reef fisheries, but little is known about the vulnerability of these fish to global warming. This study examined the effects of elevated temperatures on the movement and activity patterns of the common coral trout Plectropomus leopardus (Serranidae), which is an important fishery species in tropical Australia and throughout the Indo West-Pacific. Adult fish were collected from two locations on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (23°S and 14°S) and maintained at one of four temperatures (24, 27, 30, 33 °C). Following >4 weeks acclimation, the spontaneous swimming speeds and activity patterns of individuals were recorded over a period of 12 days. At 24-27 °C, spontaneous swimming speeds of common coral trout were 0.43-0.45 body lengths per second (bls(-1)), but dropped sharply to 0.29 bls(-1) at 30 °C and 0.25 bls(-1) at 33 °C. Concurrently, individuals spent 9.3-10.6% of their time resting motionless on the bottom at 24-27 °C, but this behaviour increased to 14.0% at 30 °C and 20.0% of the time at 33 °C (mean ± SE). The impact of temperature was greatest for smaller individuals (55 cm TL) were first affected by 30 °C and 33 °C, respectively. Importantly, there was some indication that populations can adapt to elevated temperature if presented with adequate time, as the high-latitude population decreased significantly in swimming speeds at both 30 °C and 33 °C, while the low-latitude population only showed significant reductions at 33 °C. Given that movement and activity patterns of large mobile species are directly related to prey encounter rates, ability to capture prey and avoid predators, any reductions in activity patterns are likely to reduce overall foraging and energy intake, limit the energy available for growth and reproduction, and affect the fitness and survival of individuals and populations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Elevated CO2 reduced floret death in wheat under warmer average temperatures and terminal drought.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo eDias de Oliveira

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Elevated CO2 often increases grain yield in wheat by enhancing grain number per ear, which can result from an increase in the potential number of florets or a reduction in the death of developed florets. The hypotheses that elevated CO2 reduces floret death rather than increases floret development, and that grain size in a genotype with more grains per unit area is limited by the rate of grain filling, were tested in a pair of sister lines contrasting in tillering capacity (restricted- vs free-tillering. The hypotheses were tested under elevated CO2, combined with +3 C above ambient temperature and terminal drought, using specialized field tunnel houses. Elevated CO2 increased net leaf photosynthetic rates and likely the availability of carbon assimilates, which significantly reduced the rates of floret death and increased the potential number of grains at anthesis in both sister lines by an average of 42%. The restricted-tillering line had faster grain-filling rates than the free-tillering line because the free-tillering line had more grains to fill. Furthermore, grain-filling rates were faster under elevated CO2 and +3 C above ambient. Terminal drought reduced grain yield in both lines by 19%. Elevated CO2 alone increased the potential number of grains, but a trade-off in yield components limited grain yield in the free-tillering line. This emphasizes the need for breeding cultivars with a greater potential number of florets, since this was not affected by the predicted future climate variables.

  8. Elevated CO2 Reduced Floret Death in Wheat Under Warmer Average Temperatures and Terminal Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias de Oliveira, Eduardo; Palta, Jairo A.; Bramley, Helen; Stefanova, Katia; Siddique, Kadambot H. M.

    2015-01-01

    Elevated CO2 often increases grain yield in wheat by enhancing grain number per ear, which can result from an increase in the potential number of florets or a reduction in the death of developed florets. The hypotheses that elevated CO2 reduces floret death rather than increases floret development, and that grain size in a genotype with more grains per unit area is limited by the rate of grain filling, were tested in a pair of sister lines contrasting in tillering capacity (restricted- vs. free-tillering). The hypotheses were tested under elevated CO2, combined with +3°C above ambient temperature and terminal drought, using specialized field tunnel houses. Elevated CO2 increased net leaf photosynthetic rates and likely the availability of carbon assimilates, which significantly reduced the rates of floret death and increased the potential number of grains at anthesis in both sister lines by an average of 42%. The restricted-tillering line had faster grain-filling rates than the free-tillering line because the free-tillering line had more grains to fill. Furthermore, grain-filling rates were faster under elevated CO2 and +3°C above ambient. Terminal drought reduced grain yield in both lines by 19%. Elevated CO2 alone increased the potential number of grains, but a trade-off in yield components limited grain yield in the free-tillering line. This emphasizes the need for breeding cultivars with a greater potential number of florets, since this was not affected by the predicted future climate variables. PMID:26635837

  9. Dual direction blower system powered by solar energy to reduce car cabin temperature in open parking condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdan, N. S.; Radzi, M. F. M.; Damanhuri, A. A. M.; Mokhtar, S. N.

    2017-10-01

    El-nino phenomenon that strikes Malaysia with temperature recorded more than 35°C can lead to extreme temperature rise in car cabin up to 80°C. Various problems will arise due to this extreme rising of temperature such as the occupant are vulnerable to heat stroke, emission of benzene gas that can cause cancer due to reaction of high temperature with interior compartments, and damage of compartments in the car. The current solution available to reduce car cabin temperature including tinted of window and portable heat rejection device that are available in the market. As an alternative to reduce car cabin temperature, this project modifies the car’s air conditioning blower motor into dual direction powered by solar energy and identifies its influence to temperature inside the car, parked under scorching sun. By reducing the car cabin temperature up to 10°C which equal to 14% of reduction in the car cabin temperature, this simple proposed system aims to provide comfort to users due to its capability in improving the quality of air and moisture in the car cabin.

  10. Using Uncertainty Analysis to Guide the Development of Accelerated Stress Tests (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kempe, M.

    2014-03-01

    Extrapolation of accelerated testing to the long-term results expected in the field has uncertainty associated with the acceleration factors and the range of possible stresses in the field. When multiple stresses (such as temperature and humidity) can be used to increase the acceleration, the uncertainty may be reduced according to which stress factors are used to accelerate the degradation.

  11. Uncertainty theory

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Baoding

    2015-01-01

    When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

  12. Uncertainty Propagation in OMFIT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Sterling; Meneghini, Orso; Sung, Choongki

    2017-10-01

    A rigorous comparison of power balance fluxes and turbulent model fluxes requires the propagation of uncertainties in the kinetic profiles and their derivatives. Making extensive use of the python uncertainties package, the OMFIT framework has been used to propagate covariant uncertainties to provide an uncertainty in the power balance calculation from the ONETWO code, as well as through the turbulent fluxes calculated by the TGLF code. The covariant uncertainties arise from fitting 1D (constant on flux surface) density and temperature profiles and associated random errors with parameterized functions such as a modified tanh. The power balance and model fluxes can then be compared with quantification of the uncertainties. No effort is made at propagating systematic errors. A case study will be shown for the effects of resonant magnetic perturbations on the kinetic profiles and fluxes at the top of the pedestal. A separate attempt at modeling the random errors with Monte Carlo sampling will be compared to the method of propagating the fitting function parameter covariant uncertainties. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698, DE-FG2-95ER-54309, DE-SC 0012656.

  13. Proton Arc Reduces Range Uncertainty Effects and Improves Conformality Compared With Photon Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy in Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seco, Joao, E-mail: jseco@partners.org [Francis H. Burr Proton Therapy Center, Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Gu, Guan; Marcelos, Tiago; Kooy, Hanne; Willers, Henning [Francis H. Burr Proton Therapy Center, Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

    2013-09-01

    Purpose: To describe, in a setting of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), the theoretical dosimetric advantages of proton arc stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) in which the beam penumbra of a rotating beam is used to reduce the impact of range uncertainties. Methods and Materials: Thirteen patients with early-stage NSCLC treated with proton SBRT underwent repeat planning with photon volumetric modulated arc therapy (Photon-VMAT) and an in-house-developed arc planning approach for both proton passive scattering (Passive-Arc) and intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT-Arc). An arc was mimicked with a series of beams placed at 10° increments. Tumor and organ at risk doses were compared in the context of high- and low-dose regions, represented by volumes receiving >50% and <50% of the prescription dose, respectively. Results: In the high-dose region, conformality index values are 2.56, 1.91, 1.31, and 1.74, and homogeneity index values are 1.29, 1.22, 1.52, and 1.18, respectively, for 3 proton passive scattered beams, Passive-Arc, IMPT-Arc, and Photon-VMAT. Therefore, proton arc leads to a 30% reduction in the 95% isodose line volume to 3-beam proton plan, sparing surrounding organs, such as lung and chest wall. For chest wall, V30 is reduced from 21 cm{sup 3} (3 proton beams) to 11.5 cm{sup 3}, 12.9 cm{sup 3}, and 8.63 cm{sup 3} (P=.005) for Passive-Arc, IMPT-Arc, and Photon-VMAT, respectively. In the low-dose region, the mean lung dose and V20 of the ipsilateral lung are 5.01 Gy(relative biological effectiveness [RBE]), 4.38 Gy(RBE), 4.91 Gy(RBE), and 5.99 Gy(RBE) and 9.5%, 7.5%, 9.0%, and 10.0%, respectively, for 3-beam, Passive-Arc, IMPT-Arc, and Photon-VMAT, respectively. Conclusions: Stereotactic body radiation therapy with proton arc and Photon-VMAT generate significantly more conformal high-dose volumes than standard proton SBRT, without loss of coverage of the tumor and with significant sparing of nearby organs, such as chest wall. In addition

  14. Value-of-Information Analysis to Reduce Decision Uncertainty Associated with the Choice of Thromboprophylaxis after Total Hip Replacement in the Irish Healthcare Setting.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McCullagh, Laura

    2012-06-05

    Background: The National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics, in collaboration with the Health Services Executive, considers the cost effectiveness of all new medicines introduced into Ireland. Health Technology Assessments (HTAs) are conducted in accordance with the existing agreed Irish HTA guidelines. These guidelines do not specify a formal analysis of value of information (VOI). Objective: The aim of this study was to demonstrate the benefits of using VOI analysis in decreasing decision uncertainty and to examine the viability of applying these techniques as part of the formal HTA process for reimbursement purposes within the Irish healthcare system. Method: The evaluation was conducted from the Irish health payer perspective. A lifetime model evaluated the cost effectiveness of rivaroxaban, dabigatran etexilate and enoxaparin sodium for the prophylaxis of venous thromboembolism after total hip replacement. The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was determined directly from the probabilistic analysis (PSA). Population-level EVPI (PEVPI) was determined by scaling up the EVPI according to the decision incidence. The expected value of perfect parameter information (EVPPI) was calculated for the three model parameter subsets: probabilities, preference weights and direct medical costs. Results: In the base-case analysis, rivaroxaban dominated both dabigatran etexilate and enoxaparin sodium. PSA indicated that rivaroxaban had the highest probability of being the most cost-effective strategy over a threshold range of &U20AC;0-&U20AC;100 000 per QALY. At a threshold of &U20AC;45 000 per QALY, the probability that rivaroxaban was the most cost-effective strategy was 67%. At a threshold of &U20AC;45 000 per QALY, assuming a 10-year decision time horizon, the PEVPI was &U20AC;11.96 million and the direct medical costs subset had the highest EVPPI value (&U20AC;9.00 million at a population level). In order to decrease uncertainty, a more detailed costing

  15. Reducing uncertainty in value-based pricing using evidence development agreements: the case of continuous intraduodenal infusion of levodopa/carbidopa (Duodopa®) in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis, Michael; Persson, Ulf; Zoellner, York; Gradl, Birgit

    2010-01-01

    unaffected). The manufacturer continued to collect data and to improve the economic model and re-submitted in 2008. New data and the improved model resulted in reduced uncertainty and a lower cost-effectiveness ratio in the range of Swedish kronor (SEK)430,000 per QALY gained in the base-case analysis, ranging up to SEK900,000 in the most conservative sensitivity analysis, resulting in reimbursement being granted. The case of Duodopa® provides excellent insight into VBP reimbursement decision making in combination with CED and ex post review in actual practice. Publicly available decisions document the rigorous, time-consuming process (four iterations were required before a final decision could be reached). The data generated as part of the risk-sharing agreement proved correct the initial decision to grant limited coverage despite lack of economic data. Access was provided to 100 patients while evidence was generated. Economic appraisal differs from clinical assessment, and decision makers benefit from analysis of naturalistic, actual practice data. Despite reviewing the initial trial-based, 'piggy-back' economic analysis, TLV was uncertain of the cost effectiveness in actual practice and deferred a final decision until observational data from the DAPHNE study became available. Second, acceptance of economic modelling and use of temporary reimbursement conditional on additional evidence development provide a mechanism for risk sharing between TLV and manufacturers, which enabled patient access to a drug with proven clinical benefit while necessary evidence to support claims of cost effectiveness could be generated.

  16. Graphene synthesis on SiC: Reduced graphitization temperature by C-cluster and Ar-ion implantation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, R.; Li, H.; Zhang, Z.D.; Wang, Z.S.; Zhou, S.Y.; Wang, Z.; Li, T.C.; Liu, J.R.; Fu, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Thermal decomposition of SiC is a promising method for high quality production of wafer-scale graphene layers, when the high decomposition temperature of SiC is substantially reduced. The high decomposition temperature of SiC around 1400 °C is a technical obstacle. In this work, we report on graphene synthesis on 6H–SiC with reduced graphitization temperature via ion implantation. When energetic Ar, C 1 and C 6 -cluster ions implanted into 6H–SiC substrates, some of the Si–C bonds have been broken due to the electronic and nuclear collisions. Owing to the radiation damage induced bond breaking and the implanted C atoms as an additional C source the graphitization temperature was reduced by up to 200 °C

  17. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asseng, A; Ewert, F; Rosenzweig, C

    2013-01-01

    of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models...... than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi...

  18. Structure, temperature and frequency dependent electrical conductivity of oxidized and reduced electrochemically exfoliated graphite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radoń, Adrian; Włodarczyk, Patryk; Łukowiec, Dariusz

    2018-05-01

    The article presents the influence of reduction by hydrogen in statu nascendi and modification by hydrogen peroxide on the structure and electrical conductivity of electrochemically exfoliated graphite. It was confirmed that the electrochemical exfoliation can be used to produce oxidized nanographite with an average number of 25 graphene layers. The modified electrochemical exfoliated graphite and reduced electrochemical exfoliated graphite were characterized by high thermal stability, what was associated with removing of labile oxygen-containing groups. The presence of oxygen-containing groups was confirmed using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy. Influence of chemical modification by hydrogen and hydrogen peroxide on the electrical conductivity was determined in wide frequency (0.1 Hz-10 kHz) and temperature range (-50 °C-100 °C). Material modified by hydrogen peroxide (0.29 mS/cm at 0 °C) had the lowest electrical conductivity. This can be associated with oxidation of unstable functional groups and was also confirmed by analysis of Raman spectra. The removal of oxygen-containing functional groups by hydrogen in statu nascendi resulted in a 1000-fold increase in the electrical conductivity compared to the electrochemical exfoliated graphite.

  19. Nanocellulose-assisted low-temperature synthesis and supercapacitor performance of reduced graphene oxide aerogels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Ran, Ran; Sunarso, Jaka; Yin, Chao; Zou, Honggang; Feng, Yi; Li, Xiaobao; Zheng, Xu; Yao, Jianfeng

    2017-04-01

    Here, we have synthesized reduced graphene oxide (rGO) aerogels using a nanocellulose-assisted low temperature (less than 500 °C) thermal treatment route where nanocelluloses promote the gelation of graphene oxide (GO) solution that benefits the fabrication of GO aerogels from low concentration dispersion (2.85 mg mL-1), and after their thermal decomposition the residual nanofibers act as spacer both prevent the re-stacking of graphene sheets and integrate with rGO sheets to give a particular kind of carbon-based aerogel along with numerous defects (holes). Thermal decomposition of nanocellulose appears to be complete beyond 350 °C thus its presence in form of amorphous carbon nanofibers in rGO sheets. The rGO aerogels synthesized at 350 °C provide the best balance in terms of wide interlayer spacing, high content of CO-type functional groups, and high defects content. This translates into a high discharge capacitance of 270 F g-1 at a current rate of 1 A g-1 for compressed rGO aerogels without any binder or conductive additive. Detailed electrochemical tests using 6 M KOH electrolyte establish the fact that pseudocapacitance component has substantial contribution towards the overall capacitance; closely approaching the contribution of the double layer capacitance that is the most dominant capacitance component.

  20. Warmer temperatures reduce net carbon uptake, but not water use, in a mature southern Appalachian forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Increasing air temperature is expected to extend growing season length in temperate, broadleaf forests, leading to potential increases in evapotranspiration and net carbon uptake. However, other key processes affecting water and carbon cycles are also highly temperature-dependent...

  1. Quantifying and reducing model-form uncertainties in Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulations: A data-driven, physics-informed Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao, H.; Wu, J.-L.; Wang, J.-X.; Sun, R.; Roy, C.J.

    2016-01-01

    Despite their well-known limitations, Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) models are still the workhorse tools for turbulent flow simulations in today's engineering analysis, design and optimization. While the predictive capability of RANS models depends on many factors, for many practical flows the turbulence models are by far the largest source of uncertainty. As RANS models are used in the design and safety evaluation of many mission-critical systems such as airplanes and nuclear power plants, quantifying their model-form uncertainties has significant implications in enabling risk-informed decision-making. In this work we develop a data-driven, physics-informed Bayesian framework for quantifying model-form uncertainties in RANS simulations. Uncertainties are introduced directly to the Reynolds stresses and are represented with compact parameterization accounting for empirical prior knowledge and physical constraints (e.g., realizability, smoothness, and symmetry). An iterative ensemble Kalman method is used to assimilate the prior knowledge and observation data in a Bayesian framework, and to propagate them to posterior distributions of velocities and other Quantities of Interest (QoIs). We use two representative cases, the flow over periodic hills and the flow in a square duct, to evaluate the performance of the proposed framework. Both cases are challenging for standard RANS turbulence models. Simulation results suggest that, even with very sparse observations, the obtained posterior mean velocities and other QoIs have significantly better agreement with the benchmark data compared to the baseline results. At most locations the posterior distribution adequately captures the true model error within the developed model form uncertainty bounds. The framework is a major improvement over existing black-box, physics-neutral methods for model-form uncertainty quantification, where prior knowledge and details of the models are not exploited. This approach has

  2. Quantifying and reducing model-form uncertainties in Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulations: A data-driven, physics-informed Bayesian approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiao, H., E-mail: hengxiao@vt.edu; Wu, J.-L.; Wang, J.-X.; Sun, R.; Roy, C.J.

    2016-11-01

    Despite their well-known limitations, Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) models are still the workhorse tools for turbulent flow simulations in today's engineering analysis, design and optimization. While the predictive capability of RANS models depends on many factors, for many practical flows the turbulence models are by far the largest source of uncertainty. As RANS models are used in the design and safety evaluation of many mission-critical systems such as airplanes and nuclear power plants, quantifying their model-form uncertainties has significant implications in enabling risk-informed decision-making. In this work we develop a data-driven, physics-informed Bayesian framework for quantifying model-form uncertainties in RANS simulations. Uncertainties are introduced directly to the Reynolds stresses and are represented with compact parameterization accounting for empirical prior knowledge and physical constraints (e.g., realizability, smoothness, and symmetry). An iterative ensemble Kalman method is used to assimilate the prior knowledge and observation data in a Bayesian framework, and to propagate them to posterior distributions of velocities and other Quantities of Interest (QoIs). We use two representative cases, the flow over periodic hills and the flow in a square duct, to evaluate the performance of the proposed framework. Both cases are challenging for standard RANS turbulence models. Simulation results suggest that, even with very sparse observations, the obtained posterior mean velocities and other QoIs have significantly better agreement with the benchmark data compared to the baseline results. At most locations the posterior distribution adequately captures the true model error within the developed model form uncertainty bounds. The framework is a major improvement over existing black-box, physics-neutral methods for model-form uncertainty quantification, where prior knowledge and details of the models are not exploited. This approach

  3. Observation of reduced phase transition temperature in N-doped thermochromic film of monoclinic VO_2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan, Meinan; Xiong, Mo; Li, Neng; Liu, Baoshun; Wang, Shuo; Ching, Wai-Yim; Zhao, Xiujian

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • N-doped VO_2(M1) thin films have been synthesized by annealing in NH_3 atmosphere. • The phase purity, microstructure and optical property of VO_2 thin film can be regulated by NH_3 concentration. • First-principles calculations have been carried out to study the mechanism of N-doping on energy band structures of VO_2(M1). • The energy band gaps of VO_2(M1) are tuned by substitution N-doping or interstitial N-doping. - Abstract: Research on monoclinic (M1) phase of VO_2 has attracted a great of interest for smart coating applications due to its exceptional thermochromic property. Herein, we report the results using a novel approach to synthesize N-doped VO_2(M1) thin films with high purity by heat treatment in NH_3 atmosphere. The N dopant in the film can be regulated by varying NH_3 concentration during the annealing process. We find that the N atoms are located at the interstitial sites or substitute oxygen atoms, and the V-N bonds in the VO_2 thin films increase with NH_3 concentration. The metal to insulator transition (MIT) temperature (τ_c_,_h) of the VO_2 thin film is effectively reduced from 80.0 to 62.9 °C, while the solar modulation efficiency (ΔT_s_o_l) and the modulation efficiency at 2000 nm (ΔT_2_0_0_0_n_m) are 7.36% and 55.6% respectively. The band gap of N-doped VO_2 thin films related to MIT (E_g_1) is estimated to be as low as 0.18–0.25 eV whereas the band gap associated with the visible transparency (E_g_2) is about 1.50–1.58 eV. Based on the highly accurate first-principles calculations, the E_g_1 of VO_2 (M1) is reduced after substituted or interstitial N-doping, while the E_g_2 alters with the mode of N-doping, which is excellent agreement with experimental measurement.

  4. Cool temperatures reduce antifungal activity of symbiotic bacteria of threatened amphibians--implications for disease management and patterns of decline.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua H Daskin

    Full Text Available Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd, is a widespread disease of amphibians responsible for population declines and extinctions. Some bacteria from amphibians' skins produce antimicrobial substances active against Bd. Supplementing populations of these cutaneous antifungal bacteria might help manage chytridiomycosis in wild amphibians. However, the activity of protective bacteria may depend upon environmental conditions. Biocontrol of Bd in nature thus requires knowledge of how environmental conditions affect their anti-Bd activity. For example, Bd-driven amphibian declines have often occurred at temperatures below Bd's optimum range. It is possible these declines occurred due to reduced anti-Bd activity of bacterial symbionts at cool temperatures. Better understanding of the effects of temperature on chytridiomycosis development could also improve risk evaluation for amphibian populations yet to encounter Bd. We characterized, at a range of temperatures approximating natural seasonal variation, the anti-Bd activity of bacterial symbionts from the skins of three species of rainforest tree frogs (Litoria nannotis, Litoria rheocola, and Litoria serrata. All three species declined during chytridiomycosis outbreaks in the late 1980s and early 1990s and have subsequently recovered to differing extents. We collected anti-Bd bacterial symbionts from frogs and cultured the bacteria at constant temperatures from 8 °C to 33 °C. Using a spectrophotometric assay, we monitored Bd growth in cell-free supernatants (CFSs from each temperature treatment. CFSs from 11 of 24 bacteria showed reduced anti-Bd activity in vitro when they were produced at cool temperatures similar to those encountered by the host species during population declines. Reduced anti-Bd activity of metabolites produced at low temperatures may, therefore, partially explain the association between Bd-driven declines and cool temperatures. We show that to

  5. Cool temperatures reduce antifungal activity of symbiotic bacteria of threatened amphibians--implications for disease management and patterns of decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskin, Joshua H; Bell, Sara C; Schwarzkopf, Lin; Alford, Ross A

    2014-01-01

    Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a widespread disease of amphibians responsible for population declines and extinctions. Some bacteria from amphibians' skins produce antimicrobial substances active against Bd. Supplementing populations of these cutaneous antifungal bacteria might help manage chytridiomycosis in wild amphibians. However, the activity of protective bacteria may depend upon environmental conditions. Biocontrol of Bd in nature thus requires knowledge of how environmental conditions affect their anti-Bd activity. For example, Bd-driven amphibian declines have often occurred at temperatures below Bd's optimum range. It is possible these declines occurred due to reduced anti-Bd activity of bacterial symbionts at cool temperatures. Better understanding of the effects of temperature on chytridiomycosis development could also improve risk evaluation for amphibian populations yet to encounter Bd. We characterized, at a range of temperatures approximating natural seasonal variation, the anti-Bd activity of bacterial symbionts from the skins of three species of rainforest tree frogs (Litoria nannotis, Litoria rheocola, and Litoria serrata). All three species declined during chytridiomycosis outbreaks in the late 1980s and early 1990s and have subsequently recovered to differing extents. We collected anti-Bd bacterial symbionts from frogs and cultured the bacteria at constant temperatures from 8 °C to 33 °C. Using a spectrophotometric assay, we monitored Bd growth in cell-free supernatants (CFSs) from each temperature treatment. CFSs from 11 of 24 bacteria showed reduced anti-Bd activity in vitro when they were produced at cool temperatures similar to those encountered by the host species during population declines. Reduced anti-Bd activity of metabolites produced at low temperatures may, therefore, partially explain the association between Bd-driven declines and cool temperatures. We show that to avoid

  6. Facile synthesis of iron oxides/reduced graphene oxide composites: application for electromagnetic wave absorption at high temperature

    OpenAIRE

    Lili Zhang; Xinxin Yu; Hongrui Hu; Yang Li; Mingzai Wu; Zhongzhu Wang; Guang Li; Zhaoqi Sun; Changle Chen

    2015-01-01

    Iron oxides/reduced graphene oxide composites were synthesized by facile thermochemical reactions of graphite oxide and FeSO4?7H2O. By adjusting reaction temperature, ?-Fe2O3/reduced graphene oxide and Fe3O4/reduced graphene oxide composites can be obtained conveniently. Graphene oxide and reduced graphene oxide sheets were demonstrated to regulate the phase transition from ?-Fe2O3 to Fe3O4 via ?-Fe2O3, which was reported for the first time. The hydroxyl groups attached on the graphene oxide ...

  7. Teaching Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duerdoth, Ian

    2009-01-01

    The subject of uncertainties (sometimes called errors) is traditionally taught (to first-year science undergraduates) towards the end of a course on statistics that defines probability as the limit of many trials, and discusses probability distribution functions and the Gaussian distribution. We show how to introduce students to the concepts of…

  8. Calibration uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Anglov, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Methods recommended by the International Standardization Organisation and Eurachem are not satisfactory for the correct estimation of calibration uncertainty. A novel approach is introduced and tested on actual calibration data for the determination of Pb by ICP-AES. The improved calibration...

  9. Simulation and Experimental Study on Effect of Phase Change Material Thickness to Reduce Temperature of Photovoltaic Panel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Indartono, Y. S.; Prakoso, S. D.; Suwono, A.; Zaini, I. N.; Fernaldi, B.

    2015-09-01

    Solar energy is promising renewable energy which can be applied in Indonesia. Average solar radiation in the country is 4.8 kWh/day/m2. Weakness of silicon-based photovoltaic (PV) is efficiency reduction caused by temperature increase. Many attempts have been done to reduce PV temperature. In previous study, palm oil, which is widely available in Indonesia, is suitable to be used as phase change material (PCM) to reduce PV temperature. In this study, thickness of aluminium rectangular-tube containing phase change material oil is varied. The tube is placed at back part of PV. Numerical and experimental study was done to evaluate the effect of tube thickness to the temperature reduction of the PV. Variation of tube thickness used in the experiment is 50.8mm, 76.2 mm, 101.6 mm. Both studies show that increase of PCM thickness reduces PV temperature. Higher PCM thickness cause large reduction on PV temperature. Simulation result shows there is an optimum thickness of the PCM which is applied to the PV.

  10. Simulation and Experimental Study on Effect of Phase Change Material Thickness to Reduce Temperature of Photovoltaic Panel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Indartono, Y S; Prakoso, S D; Suwono, A; Zaini, I N; Fernaldi, B

    2015-01-01

    Solar energy is promising renewable energy which can be applied in Indonesia. Average solar radiation in the country is 4.8 kWh/day/m2. Weakness of silicon-based photovoltaic (PV) is efficiency reduction caused by temperature increase. Many attempts have been done to reduce PV temperature. In previous study, palm oil, which is widely available in Indonesia, is suitable to be used as phase change material (PCM) to reduce PV temperature. In this study, thickness of aluminium rectangular-tube containing phase change material oil is varied. The tube is placed at back part of PV. Numerical and experimental study was done to evaluate the effect of tube thickness to the temperature reduction of the PV. Variation of tube thickness used in the experiment is 50.8mm, 76.2 mm, 101.6 mm. Both studies show that increase of PCM thickness reduces PV temperature. Higher PCM thickness cause large reduction on PV temperature. Simulation result shows there is an optimum thickness of the PCM which is applied to the PV. (paper)

  11. Reducing CO2 emissions in temperature-controlled road transportation using the LDVRP model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stellingwerf, Helena M.; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Vorst, van der Jack G.A.J.; Bloemhof, Jacqueline M.

    2018-01-01

    Temperature-controlled transport is needed to maintain the quality of products such as fresh and frozen foods and pharmaceuticals. Road transportation is responsible for a considerable part of global emissions. Temperature-controlled transportation exhausts even more emissions than ambient

  12. Mechanisms controlling temperature dependent mechanical and electrical behavior of SiH4 reduced chemically vapor deposited W

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joshi, R.V.; Prasad, V.; Krusin-Elbaum, L.; Yu, M.; Norcott, M.

    1990-01-01

    The effects of deposition temperature on growth, composition, structure, adhesion properties, stress, and resistivity of chemically vapor deposited W deposited purely by SiH 4 reduction of WF 6 are discussed. At lower deposition temperatures, due to incomplete Si reduction reaction, a small amount of Si is incorporated in the film. This elemental Si in W is responsible for the observed high stresses and high resistivities over a wide temperature range. With the increase in the deposition temperature, the conversion of incorporated Si as well as the initial Si reduction are taking place, stimulating increased grain growth and thereby relieving stress and reducing resistivity. The optimum values for stress and resistivity are achieved around 500 degree C, as Si content is at its minimum. At higher temperatures the reaction between residual Si and W, is the prime cause of resistivity increase

  13. Quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty in spin models with Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhiming

    2018-02-01

    In this article, we investigate the dynamics and correlations of quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty, the tightness of the uncertainty, entanglement, quantum correlation and mixedness for various spin chain models with Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya (DM) interaction, including the XXZ model with DM interaction, the XY model with DM interaction and the Ising model with DM interaction. We find that the uncertainty grows to a stable value with growing temperature but reduces as the coupling coefficient, anisotropy parameter and DM values increase. It is found that the entropic uncertainty is closely correlated with the mixedness of the system. The increasing quantum correlation can result in a decrease in the uncertainty, and the robustness of quantum correlation is better than entanglement since entanglement means sudden birth and death. The tightness of the uncertainty drops to zero, apart from slight volatility as various parameters increase. Furthermore, we propose an effective approach to steering the uncertainty by weak measurement reversal.

  14. Synchronous temperature rate control and apparatus for refrigeration with reduced energy consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Alberto Regio; Keres, Stephen L.; Kuehl, Steven J.; Litch, Andrew D.; Richmond, Peter J.; Wu, Guolian

    2015-09-22

    A refrigerator appliance configuration, and associated methods of operation, for an appliance with a controller, a condenser, at least one evaporator, a compressor, and two refrigeration compartments. The configuration may be equipped with a variable-speed or variable-capacity compressor, variable speed evaporator or compartment fans, a damper, and/or a dual-temperature evaporator with a valve system to control flow of refrigerant through one or more pressure reduction devices. The controller, by operation of the compressor, fans, damper and/or valve system, depending on the appliance configuration, synchronizes alternating cycles of cooling each compartment to a temperature approximately equal to the compartment set point temperature.

  15. Reducing the loss of vaccines from accidental freezing in the cold chain: the experience of continuous temperature monitoring in Tunisia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, John; Lydon, Patrick; Ouhichi, Ramzi; Zaffran, Michel

    2015-02-11

    Accidental freezing of vaccines is a growing threat and a real risk for national immunization programs when the potency of many vaccines can be compromised if these are exposed to sub-zero temperatures in the cold chain. In Tunisia, this issue is compounded by using sub-standard domestic cold chain equipment instead of equipping the program with medical refrigerators designed specifically for storing vaccines and temperature sensitive pharmaceuticals. Against this backdrop, this paper presents the findings of a demonstration project conducted in Tunisia in 2012 that tested the impact of introducing several freeze prevention solutions to mitigate the risk of accidental freezing of vaccines. The main finding is that, despite the continued use of underperforming domestic refrigerators, continuous temperature monitoring using new technologies combined with other technological interventions significantly reduced the prevalence of accidental exposure to freezing temperatures. These improvements were noticed for cold chain storage at regional, district and health center levels, and during the transport legs that were part of the demonstration conducted in the regions of Kasserine in the South-Eastern part of Tunisia. Subsequent to introducing these freeze prevention solutions, the incidence of freeze alarms was reduced and the percent of time the temperatures dropped below the 2 °C recommended threshold. The incidence of freeze alarms at health center level was reduced by 40%. Lastly, the solutions implemented reduced risk of freezing during transport from 13.8% to 1.7%. Although the solution implemented is not optimal in the longer term because domestic refrigerators are used extensively in district stores and health centers, the risk of accidental freezing is significantly reduced by introducing the practice of continuous temperature monitoring as a standard. The management of the cold chain equipment was strengthened as a result which helps protect the potency of

  16. Uncertainty quantification in resonance absorption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, M.M.R.

    2012-01-01

    We assess the uncertainty in the resonance escape probability due to uncertainty in the neutron and radiation line widths for the first 21 resonances in 232 Th as given by . Simulation, quadrature and polynomial chaos methods are used and the resonance data are assumed to obey a beta distribution. We find the uncertainty in the total resonance escape probability to be the equivalent, in reactivity, of 75–130 pcm. Also shown are pdfs of the resonance escape probability for each resonance and the variation of the uncertainty with temperature. The viability of the polynomial chaos expansion method is clearly demonstrated.

  17. Low threading dislocation density aluminum nitride on silicon carbide through the use of reduced temperature interlayers

    KAUST Repository

    Foronda, Humberto M.; Wu, Feng; Zollner, Christian; Alif, Muhammad Esmed; Saifaddin, Burhan; Almogbel, Abdullah; Iza, Michael; Nakamura, Shuji; DenBaars, Steven P.; Speck, James S.

    2017-01-01

    temperature on the AlN crystal quality, defect density, and surface morphology. The crystal quality was characterized using omega rocking curve scans and the threading dislocation density was determined by plan view transmission electron microscopy. The growth

  18. Structure-property relationships in flavour-barrier membranes with reduced high-temperature diffusivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heitfeld, Kevin A.; Schaefer, Dale W.

    2009-01-01

    Encapsulation is used to decrease the premature release of volatile flavour ingredients while offering protection against environmental damage such as oxidation, light-induced reactions, etc. Hydroxypropyl cellulose (HPC) is investigated here as a 'smart,' temperature responsive membrane for flavour encapsulation and delivery. Gel films were synthesized and characterized by diffusion and small-angle neutron and X-ray scattering techniques. Increasing temperature typically increases the diffusion rate across a membrane; HPC, however, can be tailored to give substantially improved elevated temperature properties. Scattering results indicate processing conditions have a significant impact on membrane morphology (micro phase separation). Under certain synthetic conditions, micro phase separation is mitigated and the membranes show temperature-independent diffusivity between 25 C and 60 C.

  19. Temperature and pressure adaptation of a sulfate reducer from the deep subsurface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katja eFichtel

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Microbial life in deep marine subsurface faces increasing temperatures and hydrostatic pressure with depth. In this study, we have examined growth characteristics and temperature-related adaptation of the Desulfovibrio indonesiensis strain P23 to the in situ pressure of 30 MPa. The strain originates from the deep subsurface of the eastern flank of the Juan de Fuca Ridge (IODP Site U1301. The organism was isolated at 20 °C and atmospheric pressure from ~61 °C-warm sediments approximately five meters above the sediment-basement interface. In comparison to standard laboratory conditions (20 °C and 0.1 MPa, faster growth was recorded when incubated at in situ pressure and high temperature (45 °C, while cell filamentation was induced by further compression. The maximum growth temperature shifted from 48°C at atmospheric pressure to 50°C under high-pressure conditions. Complementary cellular lipid analyses revealed a two-step response of membrane viscosity to increasing temperature with an exchange of unsaturated by saturated fatty acids and subsequent change from branched to unbranched alkyl moieties. While temperature had a stronger effect on the degree of fatty acid saturation and restructuring of main phospholipids, pressure mainly affected branching and length of side chains. The simultaneous decrease of temperature and pressure to ambient laboratory conditions allowed the cultivation of our moderately thermophilic strain. This may in turn be one key to a successful isolation of microorganisms from the deep subsurface adapted to high temperature and pressure.

  20. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  1. Smoke flow temperature beneath tunnel ceiling for train fire at subway station: Reduced-scale experiments and correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng, Na; Wang, Qiang; Liu, Zhaoxia; Li, Xiao; Yang, He

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Reduced-scale experiments on train fire at subway station. • Smoke flow temperature beneath tunnel ceiling measured and correlated. • Effect of platform-tunnel conjunction door type on smoke temperature is clarified. - Abstract: This paper is to investigate the smoke flow temperature beneath tunnel ceiling for a train on fire stopping besides a subway station. Experiments were carried out in a reduced-scale (1:10) subway station model to study the maximum smoke temperature and the longitudinal temperature distribution beneath the tunnel ceiling by considering platform-tunnel conjunction doors of two types: the full-seal platform screen door (PSD) and the full-height safety door. For the maximum temperature beneath the tunnel ceiling, it is found to be well correlated non-dimensionally with heat release rate by a 3.65 and a 2.92 power law function for the full-seal platform screen door and the full-height safety door, respectively. For the longitudinal temperature distribution along the tunnel ceiling, it can be well correlated by an exponential function for both types of platform-tunnel conjunction doors. Concerning the effect of the door type, the maximum temperature is lower and the longitudinal temperature decays faster for full-height safety door than that for full-seal PSD. This is due to that with the full-height safety door, the effective width of the tunnel ceiling is widened, which results in more heat losses from the smoke flow to the ceiling.

  2. Shape-Dependent Activity of Ceria for Hydrogen Electro-Oxidation in Reduced-Temperature Solid Oxide Fuel Cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Xiaofeng; Luo, Ting; Meng, Xie; Wu, Hao; Li, Junliang; Liu, Xuejiao; Ji, Xiaona; Wang, Jianqiang; Chen, Chusheng; Zhan, Zhongliang

    2015-11-04

    Single crystalline ceria nanooctahedra, nanocubes, and nanorods are hydrothermally synthesized, colloidally impregnated into the porous La0.9Sr0.1Ga0.8Mg0.2O3-δ (LSGM) scaffolds, and electrochemically evaluated as the anode catalysts for reduced temperature solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs). Well-defined surface terminations are confirmed by the high-resolution transmission electron microscopy--(111) for nanooctahedra, (100) for nanocubes, and both (110) and (100) for nanorods. Temperature-programmed reduction in H2 shows the highest reducibility for nanorods, followed sequentially by nanocubes and nanooctahedra. Measurements of the anode polarization resistances and the fuel cell power densities reveal different orders of activity of ceria nanocrystals at high and low temperatures for hydrogen electro-oxidation, i.e., nanorods > nanocubes > nanooctahedra at T ≤ 450 °C and nanooctahedra > nanorods > nanocubes at T ≥ 500 °C. Such shape-dependent activities of these ceria nanocrystals have been correlated to their difference in the local structure distortions and thus in the reducibility. These findings will open up a new strategy for design of advanced catalysts for reduced-temperature SOFCs by elaborately engineering the shape of nanocrystals and thus selectively exposing the crystal facets. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  3. Study of graphene growth on copper foil by pulsed laser deposition at reduced temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abd Elhamid, Abd Elhamid M.; Hafez, Mohamed A.; Aboulfotouh, Abdelnaser M.; Azzouz, Iftitan M.

    2017-01-01

    Graphene has been successfully grown on commercial copper foil at low temperature of 500 °C by pulsed laser deposition (PLD). X-ray diffraction patterns showed that films have been grown in the presence of Cu(111) and Cu(200) facets. Raman spectroscopy was utilized to study the effects of temperature, surface structure, and cooling rate on the graphene growth. Raman spectra indicate that the synthesis of graphene layers rely on the surface quality of the Cu substrate together with the proper cooling profile coupled with graphene growth temperature. PLD-grown graphene film on Cu has been verified by transmission electron microscopy. Surface mediated growth of graphene on Cu foil substrate revealed to have a favorable catalytic effect. High growth rate of graphene and less defects can be derived using fast cooling rate.

  4. Increasing thermal drying temperature of biosolids reduced nitrogen mineralisation and soil N2O emissions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Case, Sean; Gomez Muñoz, Beatriz; Magid, Jakob

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies found that thermally dried biosolids contained more mineralisable organic nitrogen (N) than the raw or anaerobically digested (AD) biosolids they were derived from. However, the effect of thermal drying temperature on biosolid N availability is not well understood. This will be o......Previous studies found that thermally dried biosolids contained more mineralisable organic nitrogen (N) than the raw or anaerobically digested (AD) biosolids they were derived from. However, the effect of thermal drying temperature on biosolid N availability is not well understood...

  5. Increasing the efficiency of heating systems by reducing the flue gas temperature below the dew point

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kremer, H.

    1981-06-01

    This paper deals with the fundamentals and technical possibilities of increasing the combustion efficiency of gas-fired heating units for domestic heating by cooling the flue gases below their water vapor saturation temperature. The improvement of the efficiency can be more than 15% in comparison even to modern warm water heating boilers. Important however is the availability of cooling fluids of sufficiently low temperatures which could be recirculated heating water, freshwater and air. Different possible applications of this method are discussed in detail.

  6. A Flexible Temperature Sensor Based on Reduced Graphene Oxide for Robot Skin Used in Internet of Things.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guanyu; Tan, Qiulin; Kou, Hairong; Zhang, Lei; Wang, Jinqi; Lv, Wen; Dong, Helei; Xiong, Jijun

    2018-05-02

    Flexible electronics, which can be distributed on any surface we need, are highly demanded in the development of Internet of Things (IoT), robot technology and electronic skins. Temperature is a fundamental physical parameter, and it is an important indicator in many applications. Therefore, a flexible temperature sensor is required. Here, we report a simple method to fabricate three lightweight, low-cost and flexible temperature sensors, whose sensitive materials are reduced graphene oxide (r-GO), single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) and multi-wall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs). By comparing linearity, sensitive and repeatability, we found that the r-GO temperature sensor had the most balanced performance. Furthermore, the r-GO temperature sensor showed good mechanical properties and it could be bent in different angles with negligible resistance change. In addition, the performance of the r-GO temperature sensor remained stable under different kinds of pressure and was unaffected by surrounding environments, like humidity or other gases, because of the insulating layer on its sensitive layer. The easy-fabricated process and economy, together with the remarkable performance of the r-GO temperature sensor, suggest that it is suitable for use as a robot skin or used in the environment of IoT.

  7. A Flexible Temperature Sensor Based on Reduced Graphene Oxide for Robot Skin Used in Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guanyu Liu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Flexible electronics, which can be distributed on any surface we need, are highly demanded in the development of Internet of Things (IoT, robot technology and electronic skins. Temperature is a fundamental physical parameter, and it is an important indicator in many applications. Therefore, a flexible temperature sensor is required. Here, we report a simple method to fabricate three lightweight, low-cost and flexible temperature sensors, whose sensitive materials are reduced graphene oxide (r-GO, single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs and multi-wall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs. By comparing linearity, sensitive and repeatability, we found that the r-GO temperature sensor had the most balanced performance. Furthermore, the r-GO temperature sensor showed good mechanical properties and it could be bent in different angles with negligible resistance change. In addition, the performance of the r-GO temperature sensor remained stable under different kinds of pressure and was unaffected by surrounding environments, like humidity or other gases, because of the insulating layer on its sensitive layer. The easy-fabricated process and economy, together with the remarkable performance of the r-GO temperature sensor, suggest that it is suitable for use as a robot skin or used in the environment of IoT.

  8. Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

    2016-01-01

    Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

  9. Threshold temperatures mediate the impact of reduced snow cover on overwintering freeze-tolerant caterpillars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Katie E.; Sinclair, Brent J.

    2012-01-01

    Decreases in snow cover due to climate change could alter the energetics and physiology of ectothermic animals that overwinter beneath snow, yet how snow cover interacts with physiological thresholds is unknown. We applied numerical simulation of overwintering metabolic rates coupled with field validation to determine the importance of snow cover and freezing to the overwintering lipid consumption of the freeze-tolerant Arctiid caterpillar Pyrrharctia isabella. Caterpillars that overwintered above the snow experienced mean temperatures 1.3°C lower than those below snow and consumed 18.36 mg less lipid of a total 68.97-mg reserve. Simulations showed that linear temperature effects on metabolic rate accounted for only 30% of the difference in lipid consumption. When metabolic suppression by freezing was included, 93% of the difference between animals that overwintered above and below snow was explained. Our results were robust to differences in temperature sensitivity of metabolic rate, changes in freezing point, and the magnitude of metabolic suppression by freezing. The majority of the energy savings was caused by the non-continuous reduction in metabolic rate due to freezing, the first example of the importance of temperature thresholds in the lipid use of overwintering insects.

  10. Sulfate reducing processes at extreme salinity and temperature. extending its application window

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vallero, M.V.G.

    2003-01-01

    The characteristics of various sulfate-rich wastewaters, such as temperature, pH and salinity, are determined by the (industrial) process from which they originate, and can be far from the physiological optima of the sulfur cycle microorganisms. The main goal of the research described in this thesis

  11. Reduced substrate supply limits the temperature response of soil organic carbon decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinzia Fissore; Christian P. Giardina; Randall K. Kolka

    2013-01-01

    Controls on the decomposition rate of soil organic carbon (SOC), especially the more stable fraction of SOC, remain poorly understood, with implications for confidence in efforts to model terrestrial C balance under future climate. We investigated the role of substrate supply in the temperature sensitivity of SOC decomposition in laboratory incubations of coarse-...

  12. Photometric Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Xiao-Duan; Li, Jian-Yang; Clark, Beth Ellen; Golish, Dathon

    2018-01-01

    The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, launched in September, 2016, will study the asteroid Bennu and return a sample from its surface to Earth in 2023. Bennu is a near-Earth carbonaceous asteroid which will provide insight into the formation and evolution of the solar system. OSIRIS-REx will first approach Bennu in August 2018 and will study the asteroid for approximately two years before sampling. OSIRIS-REx will develop its photometric model (including Lommel-Seelinger, ROLO, McEwen, Minnaert and Akimov) of Bennu with OCAM and OVIRS during the Detailed Survey mission phase. The model developed during this phase will be used to photometrically correct the OCAM and OVIRS data.Here we present the analysis of the error for the photometric corrections. Based on our testing data sets, we find:1. The model uncertainties is only correct when we use the covariance matrix to calculate, because the parameters are highly correlated.2. No evidence of domination of any parameter in each model.3. And both model error and the data error contribute to the final correction error comparably.4. We tested the uncertainty module on fake and real data sets, and find that model performance depends on the data coverage and data quality. These tests gave us a better understanding of how different model behave in different case.5. L-S model is more reliable than others. Maybe because the simulated data are based on L-S model. However, the test on real data (SPDIF) does show slight advantage of L-S, too. ROLO is not reliable to use when calculating bond albedo. The uncertainty of McEwen model is big in most cases. Akimov performs unphysical on SOPIE 1 data.6. Better use L-S as our default choice, this conclusion is based mainly on our test on SOPIE data and IPDIF.

  13. Interactive effects of ocean acidification, elevated temperature, and reduced salinity on early-life stages of the pacific oyster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Ginger W K; Dineshram, R; Campanati, Camilla; Chan, Vera B S; Havenhand, Jon; Thiyagarajan, Vengatesen

    2014-09-02

    Ocean acidification (OA) effects on larvae are partially attributed for the rapidly declining oyster production in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. This OA effect is a serious concern in SE Asia, which produces >80% of the world's oysters. Because climate-related stressors rarely act alone, we need to consider OA effects on oysters in combination with warming and reduced salinity. Here, the interactive effects of these three climate-related stressors on the larval growth of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, were examined. Larvae were cultured in combinations of temperature (24 and 30 °C), pH (8.1 and 7.4), and salinity (15 psu and 25 psu) for 58 days to the early juvenile stage. Decreased pH (pH 7.4), elevated temperature (30 °C), and reduced salinity (15 psu) significantly delayed pre- and post-settlement growth. Elevated temperature lowered the larval lipid index, a proxy for physiological quality, and negated the negative effects of decreased pH on attachment and metamorphosis only in a salinity of 25 psu. The negative effects of multiple stressors on larval metamorphosis were not due to reduced size or depleted lipid reserves at the time of metamorphosis. Our results supported the hypothesis that the C. gigas larvae are vulnerable to the interactions of OA with reduced salinity and warming in Yellow Sea coastal waters now and in the future.

  14. Uncertainty: a discriminator for above and below boiling repository design decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilder, D G; Lin, W; Buscheck, T A; Wolery, T J; Francis, N D

    2000-01-01

    The US nuclear waste disposal program is evaluating the Yucca Mountain (YM) site for possible disposal of nuclear waste. Radioactive decay of the waste, particularly spent fuel, generates sufficient heat to significantly raise repository temperatures. Environmental conditions in the repository system evolve in response to this heat. The amount of temperature increase, and thus environmental changes, depends on repository design and operations. Because the evolving environment cannot be directly measured until after waste is emplaced, licensing decisions must be based upon model and analytical projections of the environmental conditions. These analyses have inherent uncertainties. There is concern that elevated temperatures increase uncertainty, because most chemical reaction rates increase with temperature and boiling introduces additional complexity of vapor phase reactions and transport. This concern was expressed by the NWTRB, particularly for above boiling temperatures. They state that ''the cooler the repository, the lower the uncertainty about heat-driven water migration and the better the performance of waste package materials. Above this temperature, technical uncertainties tend to be significantly higher than those associated with below-boiling conditions.'' (Cohon 1999). However, not all uncertainties are reduced by lower temperatures, indeed some may even be increased. This paper addresses impacts of temperatures on uncertainties

  15. Synchronous compartment temperature control and apparatus for refrigeration with reduced energy consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Alberto Regio; Keres, Stephen L.; Kuehl, Stephen J.; Litch, Andrew D.; Richmond, Peter J.; Wu, Guolian

    2015-09-22

    A refrigerator appliance configuration, and associated methods of operation, for an appliance with a controller, a condenser, at least one evaporator, a compressor, and two refrigeration compartments. The configuration may be equipped with a variable-speed or variable-capacity compressor, variable speed evaporator or compartment fans, a damper and/or a dual-temperature evaporator with a valve system to control flow of refrigerant through one or more pressure reduction devices. The controller, by operation of the compressor, fans, damper and/or valve system, depending on the appliance configuration, controls the cooling rate in one or both compartments to synchronize, alternating cycles of cooling the compartments to their set point temperatures.

  16. Waste Tyres as Heat Sink to Reduce the Driveway Surface Temperatures in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Aniza Abdul Aziz; Sreenivasaiah Purushothama Rao; Elias Salleh

    2013-01-01

    The development of roads and driveways are on the rise as automobiles are now a necessity to all. This excessive development with its requirements increased the urban heat temperature and the generation of waste tyres. Waste tyre management has therefore been taken seriously by developed countries and since the European directive to ban used tyre products and whole tire disposal from landfill in 2003 and 2006 respectively, many researchers have looked for alternative ways to use the waste tyr...

  17. Uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, R.E.

    1982-03-01

    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software

  18. Low temperatures reduce skin healing in the Jacaré do Pantanal (Caiman yacare, Daudin 1802

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro Nogueira Pressinotti

    2013-09-01

    Studies of skin wound healing in crocodilians are necessary given the frequent occurrence of cannibalism in intensive farming systems. Air temperature affects tissue recovery because crocodilians are ectothermic. Therefore, the kinetics of skin wound healing in Caiman yacare were examined at temperatures of 33°C and 23°C. Sixteen caiman were selected and divided into two groups of eight maintained at 23°C or 33°C. The studied individuals' scars were photographed after 1, 2, 3, 7, 15 and 30 days of the experimental conditions, and samples were collected for histological processing after 3, 7, 15 and 30 days. Macroscopically, the blood clot (heterophilic granuloma noticeably remained in place covering the wound longer for the caiman kept at 23°C. Microscopically, the temperature of 23°C slowed epidermal migration and skin repair. Comparatively, new blood vessels, labeled using von Willebrand factor (vWF antibody staining, were more frequently found in the scars of the 33°C group. The collagen fibers in the dermis were denser in the 33°C treatment. Considering the delayed healing at 23°C, producers are recommended to keep wounded animals at 33°C, especially when tanks are cold, to enable rapid wound closure and better repair of collagen fibers because such lesions tend to compromise the use of their skin as leather.

  19. Elevated water temperature reduces the acute toxicity of the widely used herbicide diuron to a green alga, Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasmin, Rumana; Shimasaki, Yohei; Tsuyama, Michito; Qiu, Xuchun; Khalil, Fatma; Okino, Nozomu; Yamada, Naotaka; Fukuda, Shinji; Kang, Ik-Joon; Oshima, Yuji

    2014-01-01

    In the actual environment, temperatures fluctuate drastically through season or global warming and are thought to affects risk of pollutants for aquatic biota; however, there is no report about the effect of water temperature on toxicity of widely used herbicide diuron to fresh water microalgae. The present research investigated inhibitory effect of diuron on growth and photosynthetic activity of a green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata at five different temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 °C) for 144 h of exposure. As a result, effective diuron concentrations at which a 50% decrease in algal growth occurred was increased with increasing water temperature ranging from 9.2 to 20.1 μg L(-1) for 72 h and 9.4-28.5 μg L(-1) for 144 h. The photochemical efficiency of photosystem II (F v/F m ratio) was significantly reduced at all temperatures by diuron exposure at 32 μg L(-1) after 72 h. Inhibition rates was significantly increased with decreased water temperature (P diuron treatment groups and were about 2.5 times higher in diuron treatment groups than that of controls (P diuron in freshwater and should therefore be considered in environmental risk assessment.

  20. Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: a review of recent progress and remaining challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, U; Jastrow, J D; Matamala, R; Fan, Z; Miller, R M; Hugelius, G; Kuhry, P; Koven, C D; Riley, W J; Harden, J W; Ping, C L; Michaelson, G J; McGuire, A D; Tarnocai, C; Schaefer, K; Schuur, E A G; Jorgenson, M T; Hinzman, L D

    2013-01-01

    The vast amount of organic carbon (OC) stored in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region is a potentially vulnerable component of the global carbon cycle. However, estimates of the quantity, decomposability, and combustibility of OC contained in permafrost-region soils remain highly uncertain, thereby limiting our ability to predict the release of greenhouse gases due to permafrost thawing. Substantial differences exist between empirical and modeling estimates of the quantity and distribution of permafrost-region soil OC, which contribute to large uncertainties in predictions of carbon–climate feedbacks under future warming. Here, we identify research challenges that constrain current assessments of the distribution and potential decomposability of soil OC stocks in the northern permafrost region and suggest priorities for future empirical and modeling studies to address these challenges. (letter)

  1. Reducing the fuel temperature for pressure-tube supercritical-water-cooled reactors and the effect of fuel burnup

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nichita, E., E-mail: eleodor.nichita@uoit.ca; Kovaltchouk, V., E-mail: vitali.kovaltchouk@uoit.ca

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • Typical PT-SCWR fuel uses single-region pins consisting of a homogeneous mixture of ThO{sub 2} and PuO{sub 2}. • Using two regions (central for the ThO{sub 2} and peripheral for the PuO{sub 2}) reduces the fuel temperature. • Single-region-pin melting-to-average power ratio is 2.5 at 0.0 MW d/kg and 2.3 at 40 MW d/kg. • Two-region-pin melting-to-average power ratio is 36 at 0.0 MW d/kg and 10.5 at 40 MW d/kg. • Two-region-pin performance drops with burnup due to fissile-element buildup in the ThO{sub 2} region. - Abstract: The Pressure-Tube Supercritical-Water-Cooled Reactor (PT-SCWR) is one of the concepts under investigation by the Generation IV International Forum for its promise to deliver higher thermal efficiency than nuclear reactors currently in operation. The high coolant temperature (>625 K) and high linear power density employed by the PT-SCWR cause the fuel temperature to be fairly high, leading to a reduced margin to fuel melting, thus increasing the risk of actual melting during accident scenarios. It is therefore desirable to come up with a fuel design that lowers the fuel temperature while preserving the high linear power ratio and high coolant temperature. One possible solution is to separate the fertile (ThO{sub 2}) and fissile (PuO{sub 2}) fuel materials into different radial regions in each fuel pin. Previously-reported work found that by locating the fertile material at the centre and the fissile material at the periphery of the fuel pin, the fuel centreline temperature can be reduced by ∼650 K for fresh fuel compared to the case of a homogeneous (Th–Pu)O{sub 2} mixture for the same coolant temperature and linear power density. This work provides a justification for the observed reduction in fuel centreline temperature and suggests a systematic approach to lower the fuel temperature. It also extends the analysis to the dependence of the radial temperature profile on fuel burnup. The radial temperature profile is

  2. Rock outcrops reduce temperature-induced stress for tropical conifer by decoupling regional climate in the semiarid environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locosselli, Giuliano Maselli; Cardim, Ricardo Henrique; Ceccantini, Gregório

    2016-05-01

    We aimed to understand the effect of rock outcrops on the growth of Podocarpus lambertii within a microrefuge. Our hypothesis holds that the growth and survival of this species depend on the regional climate decoupling provided by rock outcrops. To test this hypothesis, we characterized the microclimate of (1) surrounding vegetation, (2) rock outcrop corridors, and (3) adjacencies. We assessed population structure by collecting data of specimen stem diameter and height. We also assessed differences between vegetation associated or not with outcrops using satellite imaging. For dendrochronological analyses, we sampled 42 individuals. Tree rings of 31 individuals were dated, and climate-growth relationships were tested. Rock outcrops produce a favorable microclimate by reducing average temperature by 4.9 °C and increasing average air humidity by 12 %. They also reduce the variability of atmospheric temperature by 42 % and air humidity by 20 % supporting a vegetation with higher leaf area index. Within this vegetation, specimen height was strongly constrained by the outcrop height. Although temperature and precipitation modulate this species growth, temperature-induced stress is the key limiting growth factor for this population of P. lambertii. We conclude that this species growth and survival depend on the presence of rock outcrops. These topography elements decouple regional climate in a favorable way for this species growth. However, these benefits are restricted to the areas sheltered by rock outcrops. Although this microrefuge supported P. lambertii growth so far, it is unclear whether this protection would be sufficient to withstand the stress of future climate changes.

  3. Enhanced Temperature During Grain Filling Reduces Protein Concentration of Durum Wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Miglietta

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Durum wheat is cultivated over more than 13 millions of hectares (ha world wide and Italy is the main European producer with 3.5 millions tons per year. The protein concentration of durum wheat is very important, it ensures high nutritional value and is highly appreciated by the pasta production industries. The protein concentration of wheat is determined during the grain filling period when carbon and nitrogen compounds are translocated into the grains. Air temperature affects translocation rates and contributes to final protein concentration of wheat grains. Two common commercial varieties of durum and bread wheat were exposed from anthesis to harvest, to a source of infrared radiation in the field. This allowed to investigate the relative effect of temperature on translocation of carbon and nitrogen compound during grain filling. The heat treatment imposed affected marginally dry mass accumulation of the grains in bread wheat and didn’t affect dry mass in durum wheat. Grain protein was affected by heat treatment in durum but not in bread wheat. Carbon accumulation rate was higher for durum than for bread wheat. The protein concentration was greater in durum than in bread wheat and we can assume that the absolute nitrogen accumulation rates were higher for the former species. Such difference may be either caused by a faster nitrogen uptake rate and translocation or a more efficient relocation of nitrogen accumulated in reserve organs.

  4. Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Chini, L.; Hurtt, G.; Collins, W. D.

    2018-01-01

    Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. Here we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalent to 80% of the net effects of CO2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850-2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. We conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.

  5. Influence of strain rate and temperature on tensile properties and flow behaviour of a reduced activation ferritic-martensitic steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanaja, J., E-mail: jvanaja4@gmail.com [Metallurgy and Materials Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam 603 102 (India); Laha, K. [Metallurgy and Materials Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam 603 102 (India); Sam, Shiju [Institute for Plasma Research, Gandhinagar, Gujarat (India); Nandagopal, M.; Panneer Selvi, S.; Mathew, M.D.; Jayakumar, T. [Metallurgy and Materials Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam 603 102 (India); Rajendra Kumar, E. [Institute for Plasma Research, Gandhinagar, Gujarat (India)

    2012-05-15

    Tensile strength and flow behaviour of a Reduced Activation Ferritic-Martensitic (RAFM) steel (9Cr-1W-0.06Ta-0.22V-0.08C) have been investigated over a temperature range of 300-873 K at different strain rates. Tensile strength of the steel decreased with temperature and increased with strain rate except at intermediate temperatures. Negative strain rate sensitivity of flow stress of the steel at intermediate temperatures revealed the occurrence of dynamic strain ageing in the steel, even though no serrated flow was observed. The tensile flow behaviour of the material was well represented by the Voce strain hardening equation for all the test conditions. Temperature and strain rate dependence of the various parameters of Voce equation were interpreted with the possible deformation mechanisms. The equivalence between the saturation stress at a given strain rate in tensile test and steady state deformation rate at a given stress in creep test was found to be satisfied by the RAFM steel.

  6. Influence of strain rate and temperature on tensile properties and flow behaviour of a reduced activation ferritic-martensitic steel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanaja, J.; Laha, K.; Sam, Shiju; Nandagopal, M.; Panneer Selvi, S.; Mathew, M. D.; Jayakumar, T.; Rajendra Kumar, E.

    2012-05-01

    Tensile strength and flow behaviour of a Reduced Activation Ferritic-Martensitic (RAFM) steel (9Cr-1W-0.06Ta-0.22V-0.08C) have been investigated over a temperature range of 300-873 K at different strain rates. Tensile strength of the steel decreased with temperature and increased with strain rate except at intermediate temperatures. Negative strain rate sensitivity of flow stress of the steel at intermediate temperatures revealed the occurrence of dynamic strain ageing in the steel, even though no serrated flow was observed. The tensile flow behaviour of the material was well represented by the Voce strain hardening equation for all the test conditions. Temperature and strain rate dependence of the various parameters of Voce equation were interpreted with the possible deformation mechanisms. The equivalence between the saturation stress at a given strain rate in tensile test and steady state deformation rate at a given stress in creep test was found to be satisfied by the RAFM steel.

  7. Influence of strain rate and temperature on tensile properties and flow behaviour of a reduced activation ferritic–martensitic steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanaja, J.; Laha, K.; Sam, Shiju; Nandagopal, M.; Panneer Selvi, S.; Mathew, M.D.; Jayakumar, T.; Rajendra Kumar, E.

    2012-01-01

    Tensile strength and flow behaviour of a Reduced Activation Ferritic–Martensitic (RAFM) steel (9Cr–1W–0.06Ta–0.22V–0.08C) have been investigated over a temperature range of 300–873 K at different strain rates. Tensile strength of the steel decreased with temperature and increased with strain rate except at intermediate temperatures. Negative strain rate sensitivity of flow stress of the steel at intermediate temperatures revealed the occurrence of dynamic strain ageing in the steel, even though no serrated flow was observed. The tensile flow behaviour of the material was well represented by the Voce strain hardening equation for all the test conditions. Temperature and strain rate dependence of the various parameters of Voce equation were interpreted with the possible deformation mechanisms. The equivalence between the saturation stress at a given strain rate in tensile test and steady state deformation rate at a given stress in creep test was found to be satisfied by the RAFM steel.

  8. Facile synthesis of iron oxides/reduced graphene oxide composites: application for electromagnetic wave absorption at high temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lili; Yu, Xinxin; Hu, Hongrui; Li, Yang; Wu, Mingzai; Wang, Zhongzhu; Li, Guang; Sun, Zhaoqi; Chen, Changle

    2015-03-19

    Iron oxides/reduced graphene oxide composites were synthesized by facile thermochemical reactions of graphite oxide and FeSO4 · 7H2O. By adjusting reaction temperature, α-Fe2O3/reduced graphene oxide and Fe3O4/reduced graphene oxide composites can be obtained conveniently. Graphene oxide and reduced graphene oxide sheets were demonstrated to regulate the phase transition from α-Fe2O3 to Fe3O4 via γ-Fe2O3, which was reported for the first time. The hydroxyl groups attached on the graphene oxide sheets and H2 gas generated during the annealing of graphene oxide are believed to play an important role during these phase transformations. These samples showed good electromagnetic wave absorption performance due to their electromagnetic complementary effect. These samples possess much better electromagnetic wave absorption properties than the mixture of separately prepared Fe3O4 with rGO, suggesting the crucial role of synthetic method in determining the product properties. Also, these samples perform much better than commercial absorbers. Most importantly, the great stability of these composites is highly advantageous for applications as electromagnetic wave absorption materials at high temperatures.

  9. Reduced Graphene Oxide/Au Nanocomposite for NO2 Sensing at Low Operating Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Zhang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A reduced grapheme oxide (rGO/Au hybrid nanocomposite has been synthesized by hydrothermal treatment using graphite and HAuCl4 as the precursors. Characterization, including X-ray diffraction (XRD, Raman spectra, X-ray photoelecton spectroscopy (XPS and transmission electron microscopy (TEM, indicates the formation of rGO/Au. A gas sensor fabricated with rGO/Au nanocomposite was applied for NO2 detection at 50 °C. Compared with pure rGO, rGO/Au nanocomposite exhibits higher sensitivity, a more rapid response–recovery process and excellent reproducibility.

  10. Desulfobacter psychrotolerans sp. nov., a new psychrotolerant sulfate-reducing bacterium and descriptions of its physiological response to temperature changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarpgaard, Irene H; Boetius, Antje; Finster, Kai

    2006-01-01

    A psychrotrolerant acetate-oxidizing sulfate-reducing bacterium (strain akvb(T)) was isolated from sediment from the northern part of The North Sea with annual temperature fluctuations between 8 and 14 degrees C. Of the various substrates tested, strain akvb(T) grew exclusively by the oxidation of acetate coupled to the reduction of sulfate. The cells were motile, thick rods with round ends and grew in dense aggregates. Strain akvb(T) grew at temperatures ranging from -3.6 to 26.3 degrees C. Optimal growth was observed at 20 degrees C. The highest cell specific sulfate reduction rate of 6.2 fmol cell(-1) d(-1) determined by the (35)SO(2-)(40) method was measured at 26 degrees C. The temperature range of short-term sulfate reduction rates exceeded the temperature range of growth by 5 degrees C. The Arrhenius relationship for the temperature dependence of growth and sulfate reduction was linear, with two distinct slopes below the optimum temperatures of both processes. The critical temperature was 6.4 degrees C. The highest growth yield (4.3-4.5 g dry weight mol(-1) acetate) was determined at temperatures between 5 and 15 degrees C. The cellular fatty acid composition was determined with cultures grown at 4 and 20 degrees C, respectively. The relative proportion of cellular unsaturated fatty acids (e.g. 16:1omega7c) was higher in cells grown at 4 degrees C than in cells grown at 20 degrees C. The physiological responses to temperature changes showed that strain akvb(T) was well adapted to the temperature regime of the environment from which it was isolated. Phylogenetic analysis showed that strain akvb(T) is closest related to Desulfobacter hydrogenophilus, with a 16S rRNA gene sequence similarity of 98.6%. DNA-DNA-hybridization showed a similarity of 32% between D. hydrogenophilus and strain akvb(T). Based on phenotypic and DNA-based characteristics we propose that strain akvb(T) is a member of a new species, Desulfobacter psychrotolerans sp. nov.

  11. Planck 2013 results. III. LFI systematic uncertainties

    CERN Document Server

    Aghanim, N; Arnaud, M; Ashdown, M; Atrio-Barandela, F; Aumont, J; Baccigalupi, C; Banday, A J; Barreiro, R B; Battaner, E; Benabed, K; Benoît, A; Benoit-Lévy, A; Bernard, J -P; Bersanelli, M; Bielewicz, P; Bobin, J; Bock, J J; Bonaldi, A; Bonavera, L; Bond, J R; Borrill, J; Bouchet, F R; Bridges, M; Bucher, M; Burigana, C; Butler, R C; Cardoso, J -F; Catalano, A; Chamballu, A; Chiang, L -Y; Christensen, P R; Church, S; Colombi, S; Colombo, L P L; Crill, B P; Cruz, M; Curto, A; Cuttaia, F; Danese, L; Davies, R D; Davis, R J; de Bernardis, P; de Rosa, A; de Zotti, G; Delabrouille, J; Dick, J; Dickinson, C; Diego, J M; Dole, H; Donzelli, S; Doré, O; Douspis, M; Dupac, X; Efstathiou, G; Enßlin, T A; Eriksen, H K; Finelli, F; Forni, O; Frailis, M; Franceschi, E; Gaier, T C; Galeotta, S; Ganga, K; Giard, M; Giraud-Héraud, Y; Gjerløw, E; González-Nuevo, J; Górski, K M; Gratton, S; Gregorio, A; Gruppuso, A; Hansen, F K; Hanson, D; Harrison, D; Henrot-Versillé, S; Hernández-Monteagudo, C; Herranz, D; Hildebrandt, S R; Hivon, E; Hobson, M; Holmes, W A; Hornstrup, A; Hovest, W; Huffenberger, K M; Jaffe, T R; Jaffe, A H; Jewell, J; Jones, W C; Juvela, M; Kangaslahti, P; Keihänen, E; Keskitalo, R; Kiiveri, K; Kisner, T S; Knoche, J; Knox, L; Kunz, M; Kurki-Suonio, H; Lagache, G; Lähteenmäki, A; Lamarre, J -M; Lasenby, A; Laureijs, R J; Lawrence, C R; Leahy, J P; Leonardi, R; Lesgourgues, J; Liguori, M; Lilje, P B; Lindholm, V; Linden-Vørnle, M; López-Caniego, M; Lubin, P M; Macías-Pérez, J F; Maino, D; Mandolesi, N; Maris, M; Marshall, D J; Martin, P G; Martínez-González, E; Masi, S; Matarrese, S; Matthai, F; Mazzotta, P; Meinhold, P R; Melchiorri, A; Mendes, L; Mennella, A; Migliaccio, M; Mitra, S; Moneti, A; Montier, L; Morgante, G; Mortlock, D; Moss, A; Munshi, D; Naselsky, P; Natoli, P; Netterfield, C B; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H U; Novikov, D; Novikov, I; O'Dwyer, I J; Osborne, S; Paci, F; Pagano, L; Paladini, R; Paoletti, D; Partridge, B; Pasian, F; Patanchon, G; Pearson, D; Peel, M; Perdereau, O; Perotto, L; Perrotta, F; Pierpaoli, E; Pietrobon, D; Plaszczynski, S; Platania, P; Pointecouteau, E; Polenta, G; Ponthieu, N; Popa, L; Poutanen, T; Pratt, G W; Prézeau, G; Prunet, S; Puget, J -L; Rachen, J P; Rebolo, R; Reinecke, M; Remazeilles, M; Ricciardi, S; Riller, T; Rocha, G; Rosset, C; Rossetti, M; Roudier, G; Rubiño-Martín, J A; Rusholme, B; Sandri, M; Santos, D; Scott, D; Seiffert, M D; Shellard, E P S; Spencer, L D; Starck, J -L; Stolyarov, V; Stompor, R; Sureau, F; Sutton, D; Suur-Uski, A -S; Sygnet, J -F; Tauber, J A; Tavagnacco, D; Terenzi, L; Toffolatti, L; Tomasi, M; Tristram, M; Tucci, M; Tuovinen, J; Türler, M; Umana, G; Valenziano, L; Valiviita, J; Van Tent, B; Varis, J; Vielva, P; Villa, F; Vittorio, N; Wade, L A; Wandelt, B D; Watson, R; Wilkinson, A; Yvon, D; Zacchei, A; Zonca, A

    2014-01-01

    We present the current estimate of instrumental and systematic effect uncertainties for the Planck-Low Frequency Instrument relevant to the first release of the Planck cosmological results. We give an overview of the main effects and of the tools and methods applied to assess residuals in maps and power spectra. We also present an overall budget of known systematic effect uncertainties, which are dominated sidelobe straylight pick-up and imperfect calibration. However, even these two effects are at least two orders of magnitude weaker than the cosmic microwave background (CMB) fluctuations as measured in terms of the angular temperature power spectrum. A residual signal above the noise level is present in the multipole range $\\ell<20$, most notably at 30 GHz, and is likely caused by residual Galactic straylight contamination. Current analysis aims to further reduce the level of spurious signals in the data and to improve the systematic effects modelling, in particular with respect to straylight and calibra...

  12. Reducing irradiation damage to 'Arkin' carambola by plastic packaging or storage temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.R.; McDonald, R.E.

    1998-01-01

    Carambolas (Averrhoa carambola L.) require quarantine treatment for control of the Caribbean fruit fly (Anastrepha suspensa Loew) (CFF) prior to shipment to certain domestic and export markets. Low-dose irradiation, less than or equal to kGy, is effective for sterilizing CFF and other fruit flies; however, carambolas are susceptible to irradiation-induced peel injury. Low-dose gamma irradiation treatment generally reduced fruit quality, but the effects were mitigated by packaging carambola fruit in ''clamshell'' polystyrene containers, rather than conventional fiberboard boxes, prior to treatment. Use of clamshell containers reduced peel pitting, stem-end breakdown, shriveling, and loss of mass after storage for 14 days at 5 or 7 degrees C. In addition, fruit held in clamshell containers were firmer, with slightly less green peel, and had lower total soluble solids, but the flavor was not quite as good as that of fruit stored in fiberboard boxes. There was no difference in the mastication texture or acidity of fruit by package type at final storage. Packing carambolas in clamshell containers increased their tolerance to irradiation-induced peel disorders and improved the potential for usage of low-dose irradiation for quarantine treatment

  13. Reduced bed temperature at thermo-chemical conversion of difficult fuels; Saenkt baeddtemperatur vid termokemisk omvandling av svaara braenslen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Niklasson, Fredrik; Haraldsson, Conny; Johansson, Andreas; Claesson, Frida; Baefver, Linda; Ryde, Daniel

    2010-05-15

    This work investigates the prospect of reducing the concentrations of alkali chlorides in the flue gas by lowering the temperature in the bottom zone of a fluidized bed (FB) furnace below the often used 850 deg C. The directive of a retention time of at least two seconds above 850 deg C is fulfilled by the raise of the flue gas temperature that follows the combustion of unburned gases at the point of injection of secondary and tertiary air, above the bottom bed zone. The aim of the present experiments is to determine the dependency between the temperature and the amount of alkali metals leaving the bottom bed for some selected waste and biomass fuels. The results are intended for plant owners as well as boiler manufacturers. The experiments were performed in an FB-reactor, which was externally heated to specific temperatures between 550 and 850 deg C. The reactor is made of a quartz glass tube with an inner diameter of 60 mm and a length of 1.2 m. The fluidized bed rests upon a porous plate of sintered quartz. The bed material used was 180 gram purified sea sand with particle sizes between 0.1 and 0.3 mm. The fluidizing gas was a mixture of nitrogen and air, introduced in the bottom of the reactor by mass flow controllers. At the outlet of the reactor, the flue gas was divided between conventional gas analyzers and an ICP-MS instrument. The gas flow to the ICP-MS instrument was cooled before a slip stream was sucked out via a capillary to a nebulizer from which the sample gas was led to the ICP-MS instrument. The function of the nebulizer is normally to form an aerosol of liquids, but here it was used solely as a pump. In addition, a known flow of krypton was added into the nebulizer to be used as an internal standard. The novel technique to measure the amount of alkali metals on-line from a batch fired FB-reactor has been shown to work in practice and to provide interesting results, which so far is qualitative only. Further development and calibration work is

  14. Bio-oil Stabilization by Hydrogenation over Reduced Metal Catalysts at Low Temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Huamin; Lee, Suh-Jane; Olarte, Mariefel V.; Zacher, Alan H.

    2016-08-30

    Biomass fast pyrolysis integrated with bio-oil upgrading represents a very attractive approach for converting biomass to hydrocarbon transportation fuels. However, the thermal and chemical instability of bio-oils presents significant problems when they are being upgraded, and development of effective approaches for stabilizing bio-oils is critical to the success of the technology. Catalytic hydrogenation to remove reactive species in bio-oil has been considered as one of the most efficient ways to stabilize bio-oil. This paper provides a fundamental understanding of hydrogenation of actual bio-oils over a Ru/TiO2 catalyst under conditions relevant to practical bio-oil hydrotreating processes. Bio-oil feed stocks, bio-oils hydrogenated to different extents, and catalysts have been characterized to provide insights into the chemical and physical properties of these samples and to understand the correlation of the properties with the composition of the bio-oil and catalysts. The results indicated hydrogenation of various components of the bio-oil, including sugars, aldehydes, ketones, alkenes, aromatics, and carboxylic acids, over the Ru/TiO2 catalyst and 120 to 160oC. Hydrogenation of these species significantly changed the chemical and physical properties of the bio-oil and overall improved its thermal stability, especially by reducing the carbonyl content, which represented the content of the most reactive species (i.e., sugar, aldehydes, and ketones). The change of content of each component in response to increasing hydrogen additions suggests the following bio-oil hydrogenation reaction sequence: sugar conversion to sugar alcohols, followed by ketone and aldehyde conversion to alcohols, followed by alkene and aromatic hydrogenation, and then followed by carboxylic acid hydrogenation to alcohols. Hydrogenation of bio-oil samples with different sulfur contents or inorganic material contents suggested that sulfur poisoning of the reduced Ru metal catalysts was

  15. Diet-induced obesity reduces core body temperature across the estrous cycle and pregnancy in the rat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crew, Rachael C; Waddell, Brendan J; Maloney, Shane K; Mark, Peter J

    2018-04-16

    Obesity during pregnancy causes adverse maternal and fetal health outcomes and programs offspring for adult-onset diseases, including cardiovascular disease. Obesity also disrupts core body temperature (T c ) regulation in nonpregnant rodents; however, it is unknown whether obesity alters normal maternal T c adaptations to pregnancy. Since T c is influenced by the circadian system, and both obesity and pregnancy alter circadian biology, it was hypothesized that obesity disrupts the normal rhythmic patterns of T c before and during gestation. Obesity was induced by cafeteria (CAF) feeding in female Wistar rats for 8 weeks prior to and during gestation, whereas control (CON) animals had free access to chow. Intraperitoneal temperature loggers measured daily T c profiles throughout the study, while maternal body composition and leptin levels were assessed near term. Daily temperature profiles were examined for rhythmic features (mesor, amplitude and acrophase) by cosine regression analysis. CAF animals exhibited increased fat mass (93%) and associated hyperleptinemia (3.2-fold increase) compared to CON animals. CAF consumption reduced the average T c (by up to 0.29°C) across the estrous cycle and most of pregnancy; however, T c for CAF and CON animals converged toward the end of gestation. Obesity reduced the amplitude of T c rhythms at estrus and proestrus and on day 8 of pregnancy, but increased the amplitude at day 20 of pregnancy. Photoperiod analysis revealed that obesity reduced T c exclusively in the light period during pre-pregnancy but only during the dark period in late gestation. In conclusion, obesity alters rhythmic T c profiles and reduces the magnitude of the T c decline late in rat gestation, which may have implications for maternal health and fetal development.

  16. Selective chloroform sensor using thiol functionalized reduced graphene oxide at room temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Midya, Anupam; Mukherjee, Subhrajit; Roy, Shreyasee; Santra, Sumita; Manna, Nilotpal; Ray, Samit K.

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents a highly selective chloroform sensor using functionalised reduced graphene oxide (RGO) as a sensing layer. Thiol group is covalently attached on the basal plan of RGO film by a simple one-step aryl diazonium chemistry to improve its selectivity. Several spectroscopic techniques like X-ray photoelectron, Raman and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy confirm successful thiol functionalization of RGO. Finally, the fabricated chemiresistor type sensor is exposed to chloroform in the concentration range 200-800 ppm (parts per million). The sensor shows a 4.3% of response towards 800 ppm chloroform. The selectivity of the sensor is analyzed using various volatile organic compounds as well. The devices show enhanced response and faster recovery attributed to the physiosorption of chloroform onto thiol functionalized graphene making them attractive for 2D materials based sensing applications.

  17. Bacterial corrosion in low-temperature geothermal. Mechanisms of corrosion by sulphate-reducing bacteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daumas, Sylvie

    1987-01-01

    Within the frame of researches aimed at determining the causes of damages noticed on geothermal equipment, this research thesis aims at assessing the respective importance of physical-chemical processes and bacterial intervention in corrosion phenomena. It proposes an ecological approach of the fluid sampled in the Creil geothermal power station. The aim is to define the adaptation and activity degree of isolated sulphate-reducing bacteria with respect to their environment conditions. The author studied the effect of the development of these bacteria on the corrosion of carbon steel used in geothermal. Thus, he proposes a contribution to the understanding of mechanisms related to iron attack by these bacteria. Electrochemical techniques have been adapted to biological processes and used to measure corrosion [fr

  18. Fast temperature optimization of multi-source hyperthermia applicators with reduced-order modeling of 'virtual sources'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, K-S; Stakhursky, Vadim; Craciunescu, Oana I; Stauffer, Paul; Dewhirst, Mark; Das, Shiva K

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this work is to build the foundation for facilitating real-time magnetic resonance image guided patient treatment for heating systems with a large number of physical sources (e.g. antennas). Achieving this goal requires knowledge of how the temperature distribution will be affected by changing each source individually, which requires time expenditure on the order of the square of the number of sources. To reduce computation time, we propose a model reduction approach that combines a smaller number of predefined source configurations (fewer than the number of actual sources) that are most likely to heat tumor. The source configurations consist of magnitude and phase source excitation values for each actual source and may be computed from a CT scan based plan or a simplified generic model of the corresponding patient anatomy. Each pre-calculated source configuration is considered a 'virtual source'. We assume that the actual best source settings can be represented effectively as weighted combinations of the virtual sources. In the context of optimization, each source configuration is treated equivalently to one physical source. This model reduction approach is tested on a patient upper-leg tumor model (with and without temperature-dependent perfusion), heated using a 140 MHz ten-antenna cylindrical mini-annular phased array. Numerical simulations demonstrate that using only a few pre-defined source configurations can achieve temperature distributions that are comparable to those from full optimizations using all physical sources. The method yields close to optimal temperature distributions when using source configurations determined from a simplified model of the tumor, even when tumor position is erroneously assumed to be ∼2.0 cm away from the actual position as often happens in practical clinical application of pre-treatment planning. The method also appears to be robust under conditions of changing, nonlinear, temperature-dependent perfusion. The

  19. Low ambient temperature elevates plasma triiodothyronine concentrations while reducing digesta mean retention time and methane yield in sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, M C; McFarlane, J R; Hegarty, R S

    2015-06-01

    Ruminant methane yield (MY) is positively correlated with mean retention time (MRT) of digesta. The hormone triiodothyronine (T3 ), which is negatively correlated with ambient temperature, is known to influence MRT. It was hypothesised that exposing sheep to low ambient temperatures would increase plasma T3 concentration and decrease MRT of digesta within the rumen of sheep, resulting in a reduction of MY. To test this hypothesis, six Merino sheep were exposed to two different ambient temperatures (cold treatment, 9 ± 1 °C; warm control 26 ± 1 °C). The effects on MY, digesta MRT, plasma T3 concentration, CO2 production, DM intake, DM digestibility, change in body weight (BW), rumen volatile fatty acid (VFA) concentrations, estimated microbial protein output, protozoa abundance, wool growth, water intake, urine output and rectal temperature were studied. Cold treatment resulted in a reduction in MY (p < 0.01); digesta MRT in rumen (p < 0.01), hindgut (p = 0.01) and total digestive tract (p < 0.01); protozoa abundance (p < 0.05); and water intake (p < 0.001). Exposure to cold temperature increased plasma T3 concentration (p < 0.05), CO2 production (p = 0.01), total VFA concentrations (p = 0.03) and estimated microbial output from the rumen (p = 0.03). The rate of wool growth increased (p < 0.01) due to cold treatment, but DM intake, DM digestibility and BW change were not affected. The results suggest that exposure of sheep to cold ambient temperatures reduces digesta retention time in the gastrointestinal tract, leading to a reduction in enteric methane yield. Further research is warranted to determine whether T3 could be used as an indirect selection tool for genetic selection of low enteric methane-producing ruminants. Journal of Animal Physiology and Animal Nutrition © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  20. The effect of the thermal reduction temperature on the structure and sorption capacity of reduced graphene oxide materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dolbin, Alexandr V., E-mail: dolbin@ilt.kharkov.ua [B. Verkin Institute for Low Temperature Physics and Engineering of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 47 Lenin Ave., Kharkov 61103 (Ukraine); Khlistyuck, Maria V.; Esel' son, Valentin B.; Gavrilko, Viktor G.; Vinnikov, Nikolay A.; Basnukaeva, Razet M. [B. Verkin Institute for Low Temperature Physics and Engineering of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 47 Lenin Ave., Kharkov 61103 (Ukraine); Maluenda, Irene; Maser, Wolfgang K.; Benito, Ana M. [Instituto de Carboquímica, ICB-CSIC, Miguel Luesma Castán, 4, E-50018 Zaragoza (Spain)

    2016-01-15

    Graphical abstract: - Abstract: The influence of reduction temperatures on the structure and the sorption capacity of thermally reduced graphene (TRGO) has been investigated systematically. A set of TRGO materials were prepared by thermal treatment of parent graphene oxide (GO) at five temperatures (T = 200, 300, 500, 700, and 900 °C). Investigations of these materials by X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy and X-ray photoemission spectroscopy methods have shown that both the structure and the residual oxygen functional groups on the TRGO surface can be controlled by varying the temperature of the thermal treatment. The data on the sorption and desorption of {sup 4}He, H{sub 2}, N{sub 2}, Ne and Kr gases in the temperature interval T = 2–290 K clearly demonstrate that the sorption capacity of TRGO is closely related to the structural changes induced by the treatment temperatures. It is important that the sorption capacities of TRGOs treated at 300 °C and at 900 °C significantly increase for all the gases used. The prominent increase in the sorption capacity at 300 °C is attributed to the structural disorder and liberation of the pores caused by the removal of intercalated water and labile oxygen functional groups (oFGs) favored at this temperature. At 900 °C the sorption capacity increases due to the generation of new defects on the TRGO surface, which provide additional access to the internal space between the folds and sheets of the TRGO structure. By tailoring the structural properties we emphasize the potential of TRGO as a highly efficient sorbent.

  1. Analysis of proton exchange membrane fuel cell polarization losses at elevated temperature 120 C and reduced relative humidity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Hui; Kunz, H. Russell [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Fenton, James M. [Florida Solar Energy Center, University of Central Florida, Cocoa, FL (United States)

    2007-03-01

    Polarization losses of proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells at 120 C and reduced relative humidity (RH) were analyzed. Reduced RH affects membrane and electrode ionic resistance, catalytic activity and oxygen transport. For a cell made of Nafion {sup registered} 112 membrane and electrodes that have 35 wt.% Nafion {sup registered} and 0.3 mg/cm{sup 2} platinum supported on carbon, membrane resistance at 20%RH was 0.407 {omega} cm{sup 2} and electrode resistance 0.203 {omega} cm{sup 2}, significantly higher than 0.092 and 0.041 {omega} cm{sup 2} at 100%RH, respectively. In the kinetically controlled region, 20%RH resulted in 96 mV more cathode activation loss than 100%RH. Compared to 100%, 20%RH also produced significant oxygen transport loss across the ionomer film in the electrode, 105 mV at 600 mA/cm{sup 2}. The significant increase in polarization losses at elevated temperature and reduced RH indicates the extreme importance of designing electrodes for high temperature PEM fuel cells since membrane development has always taken most emphasis. (author)

  2. Drift algae, an invasive snail and elevated temperature reduce ecological performance of a warm-temperate seagrass, through additive effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffle, H.; Wernberg, T.; Thomsen, M. S.

    2012-01-01

    Seagrasses are under pressure from multiple concurrent threats, including rising temperatures, invasive species and nutrient-driven algal accumulations. We quantified the abundance of drift algae and the invasive snail Batillaria australis in 3 Halophila ovalis seagrass beds in the Swan River....... The survey showed that drift algae varied considerably between sites and sampling times, and sites experienced average loads of 0.4 to 0.8 kg fresh wt m(-2) and extreme loads up to 2.5 kg fresh wt m(-2). In contrast, invasive snails were constantly abundant at all sites at all collection times (mean...... reduced the length of the 2nd inter node. We found relatively few significant higher-order interactions, suggesting a dominance of additive effects of stress. We conclude that temperature, drift algae and invasive snails are already affecting the ecological performance of H. ovalis in Swan River...

  3. Growth and production kinetics of human x mouse and mouse hybridoma cells at reduced temperature and serum content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borth, N; Heider, R; Assadian, A; Katinger, H

    1992-09-01

    The growth and production kinetics of a mouse hybridoma cell line and a human-mouse heterohybridoma were analyzed under conditions of reduced temperature and serum content. The mouse hybridoma P24 had a constant cell specific production rate and RNA content, while the heterohybridoma 3D6-LC4 showed growth associated production kinetics and an increased RNA content at higher growth rates. This behaviour of 3D6-LC4 cells can be explained by the unusual cell cycle kinetics of this line, which can be arrested in any phase under growth limiting conditions, so that a low growth rate does not result in a greater portion of high producing G1-phase cells. Substrate limitation changes the cell cycle distribution of this cell line to a greater extent than low temperature or serum content, which indicates that this stress factor exerts a greater physiological control than assumed.

  4. High-Pressure-High-Temperature Processing Reduces Maillard Reaction and Viscosity in Whey Protein-Sugar Solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avila Ruiz, Geraldine; Xi, Bingyan; Minor, Marcel; Sala, Guido; van Boekel, Martinus; Fogliano, Vincenzo; Stieger, Markus

    2016-09-28

    The aim of the study was to determine the influence of pressure in high-pressure-high-temperature (HPHT) processing on Maillard reactions and protein aggregation of whey protein-sugar solutions. Solutions of whey protein isolate containing either glucose or trehalose at pH 6, 7, and 9 were treated by HPHT processing or conventional high-temperature (HT) treatments. Browning was reduced, and early and advanced Maillard reactions were retarded under HPHT processing at all pH values compared to HT treatment. HPHT induced a larger pH drop than HT treatments, especially at pH 9, which was not associated with Maillard reactions. After HPHT processing at pH 7, protein aggregation and viscosity of whey protein isolate-glucose/trehalose solutions remained unchanged. It was concluded that HPHT processing can potentially improve the quality of protein-sugar-containing foods, for which browning and high viscosities are undesired, such as high-protein beverages.

  5. Reduced absorption of glyphosate and decreased translocation of dicamba contribute to poor control of kochia (Kochia scoparia) at high temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ou, Junjun; Stahlman, Phillip W; Jugulam, Mithila

    2018-05-01

    Plant growth temperature is one of the important factors that can influence postemergent herbicide efficacy and impact weed control. Control of kochia (Kochia scoparia), a major broadleaf weed throughout the North American Great Plains, often is unsatisfactory when either glyphosate or dicamba are applied on hot summer days. We tested effects of plant growth temperature on glyphosate and dicamba phytotoxicity on two Kansas kochia populations (P1 and P2) grown under the following three day/night (d/n) temperature regimes: T1, 17.5/7.5°C; T2, 25/15°C; and T3, 32.5/22.5°C. Visual injury and above-ground dry biomass data from herbicide dose-response experiments indicated greater susceptibility to both glyphosate and dicamba when kochia was grown under the two cooler temperature regimes, i.e. T1 and T2. At T1, the ED 50 of P1 and P2 kochia were 39 and 36 g ha -1 of glyphosate and 52 and 105 g ha -1 of dicamba, respectively. In comparison, at T3 the ED 50 increased to 173 and 186 g ha -1 for glyphosate and 106 and 410 g ha -1 for dicamba, respectively, for P1 and P2. We also investigated the physiological basis of decreased glyphosate and dicamba efficacy under elevated temperatures. Kochia absorbed more glyphosate at T1 and T2 compared to T3. Conversely, there was more dicamba translocated towards meristems at T1 and T2, compared to T3. Reduced efficacy of dicamba or glyphosate to control kochia under elevated temperatures can be attributed to decreased absorption and translocation of glyphosate and dicamba, respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to apply glyphosate or dicamba when the temperature is low (e.g. d/n temperature at 25/15°C) and seedlings are small (less than 12 cm) to maximize kochia control. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

  6. The effect of temperature and addition of reducing agent on sodium stannate preparation from cassiterite by the alkaline roasting process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalasari, Latifa Hanum; Andriyah, Lia; Arini, Tri; Firdiyono, F.

    2018-04-01

    Sodium stannate is an intermediate compound with the formula Na2SnO3. This compound is easily dissolved in water and has many applications in the electroplating industry, tin alloy production, and catalysts for organic synthesis. In this occasion was investigated the effect of temperature and the addition of reducing agent on making of sodium stannate phase from cassiterite by an alkaline roasting process using sodium carbonate (Na2CO3). Firstly, cassiterite was roasted at 700 °C for 3 hours and continued leaching process using 10% HCl solution at 110 °C for 2 hours. The cassiterite residue than was dried at 110 °C and mixed homogenously with a Na2CO3 decomposer at a mass ratio Na2CO3/cassiterite as 5:3 for the decomposition process. It was done by variation temperatures (300 °C, 700 °C, 800 °C, 870 °C, 900 °C) for 3 hours, variation times (3, 4, 5 hours) at a roasting temperature of 700 °C and addition of reducing agent such as sub-bituminous coal. The result of the experiment shows that cassiterite prepared by roasting and acid leaching process has the chemical composition as follows: 59.98% Sn, 22.58% O, 3.20% Ce, 3.15% La, 2.57% Nd, 1.67% Ti, 1.56% Fe, 1.24% P, 0.62% Ca and others. The Na2SnO3 phase begins to form at a roasting temperature of 870 °C for 3 hours. Although the roasting times was extended from 3 hours to 5 hours at 700 °C, the Na2SnO3 phase also has not yet formed. In other conditions, the addition of coal reducing agent to the roasting process would cause formations of Sn metal besides Na2SnO3 phase at 870 °C. At temperatures lower than 870 °C, the addition of coal only forms Sn metal, whereas the sodium stannate phase is not formed.

  7. Reducing Transaction Costs for Energy Efficiency Investments and Analysis of Economic Risk Associated With Building Performance Uncertainties: Small Buildings and Small Portfolios Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langner, R.; Hendron, B.; Bonnema, E.

    2014-08-01

    The small buildings and small portfolios (SBSP) sector face a number of barriers that inhibit SBSP owners from adopting energy efficiency solutions. This pilot project focused on overcoming two of the largest barriers to financing energy efficiency in small buildings: disproportionately high transaction costs and unknown or unacceptable risk. Solutions to these barriers can often be at odds, because inexpensive turnkey solutions are often not sufficiently tailored to the unique circumstances of each building, reducing confidence that the expected energy savings will be achieved. To address these barriers, NREL worked with two innovative, forward-thinking lead partners, Michigan Saves and Energi, to develop technical solutions that provide a quick and easy process to encourage energy efficiency investments while managing risk. The pilot project was broken into two stages: the first stage focused on reducing transaction costs, and the second stage focused on reducing performance risk. In the first stage, NREL worked with the non-profit organization, Michigan Saves, to analyze the effects of 8 energy efficiency measures (EEMs) on 81 different baseline small office building models in Holland, Michigan (climate zone 5A). The results of this analysis (totaling over 30,000 cases) are summarized in a simple spreadsheet tool that enables users to easily sort through the results and find appropriate small office EEM packages that meet a particular energy savings threshold and are likely to be cost-effective.

  8. Uncertainty Analyses and Strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevin Coppersmith

    2001-01-01

    The DOE identified a variety of uncertainties, arising from different sources, during its assessment of the performance of a potential geologic repository at the Yucca Mountain site. In general, the number and detail of process models developed for the Yucca Mountain site, and the complex coupling among those models, make the direct incorporation of all uncertainties difficult. The DOE has addressed these issues in a number of ways using an approach to uncertainties that is focused on producing a defensible evaluation of the performance of a potential repository. The treatment of uncertainties oriented toward defensible assessments has led to analyses and models with so-called ''conservative'' assumptions and parameter bounds, where conservative implies lower performance than might be demonstrated with a more realistic representation. The varying maturity of the analyses and models, and uneven level of data availability, result in total system level analyses with a mix of realistic and conservative estimates (for both probabilistic representations and single values). That is, some inputs have realistically represented uncertainties, and others are conservatively estimated or bounded. However, this approach is consistent with the ''reasonable assurance'' approach to compliance demonstration, which was called for in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) proposed 10 CFR Part 63 regulation (64 FR 8640 [DIRS 101680]). A risk analysis that includes conservatism in the inputs will result in conservative risk estimates. Therefore, the approach taken for the Total System Performance Assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) provides a reasonable representation of processes and conservatism for purposes of site recommendation. However, mixing unknown degrees of conservatism in models and parameter representations reduces the transparency of the analysis and makes the development of coherent and consistent probability statements about projected repository

  9. Temperature dependent selective detection of hydrogen and acetone using Pd doped WO3/reduced graphene oxide nanocomposite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaur, Jasmeet; Anand, Kanica; Kohli, Nipin; Kaur, Amanpreet; Singh, Ravi Chand

    2018-06-01

    Reduced graphene oxide (RGO) and Pd doped WO3 nanocomposites were fabricated by employing electrostatic interactions between poly (diallyldimethylammonium chloride) (PDDA) modified Pd doped WO3 nanostructures and graphite oxide (GO) and studied for their gas sensing application. XRD, Raman, FTIR, FESEM-EDX, TEM, TGA, XPS and Photoluminescence techniques were used for characterization of as-synthesized samples. Gas sensing studies revealed that the sensor with optimized doping of 1.5 mol% Pd and 1 wt% GO shows temperature dependent selectivity towards hydrogen and acetone. The role of WO3, Pd and RGO has been discussed in detail for enhanced sensing performance.

  10. Uncertainty analysis of light water reactor unit fuel pin cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamerow, S.; Ivanov, K., E-mail: sln107@PSU.EDU, E-mail: kni1@PSU.EDU [Department of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, PA (United States); Moreno, C. Arenas, E-mail: cristina.arenas@UPC.EDU [Department of Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona (Spain)

    2011-07-01

    The study explored the calculation of uncertainty based on available covariance data and computational tools. Uncertainty due to temperature changes and different fuel compositions are the main focus of this analysis. Selected unit fuel pin cells were analyzed according to the OECD LWR UAM benchmark specifications. Criticality and uncertainty analyses were performed using TSUNAMI-1D sequence in SCALE 6.0. It was found that uncertainties increase with increasing temperature while k{sub eff} decreases. This increase in the uncertainty is due to the increase in sensitivity of the largest contributor of uncertainty, namely nuclide reaction {sup 238}U (n, gamma). The sensitivity grew larger as the capture cross-section of {sup 238}U expanded due to Doppler broadening. In addition, three different compositions (UOx, MOx, and UOxGd{sub 2}O{sub 3}) of fuel cells were analyzed. It showed a remarkable increase in uncertainty in k{sub eff} for the case of the MOx fuel cell and UOxGd{sub 2}O{sub 3} fuel cell. The increase in the uncertainty of k{sub eff} in UOxGd{sub 2}O{sub 3} fuel was nearly twice of that in MOx fuel and almost four times the amount in UOx fuel. The components of the uncertainties in k{sub eff} in each case were examined and it was found that the neutron-nuclide reaction of {sup 238}U, mainly (n,n'), contributed the most to the uncertainties in the cases of MOx and UOxGd{sub 2}O{sub 3}. At higher energy, the covariance coefficient matrix of {sup 238}U (n,n') to {sup 238}U (n,n') and {sup 238}U (n,n') cross-section showed very large values. Further, examination of the UOxGd{sub 2}O{sub 3} case found that the {sup 238}U (n,n') became the dominant contributor to the uncertainty because most of the thermal neutrons in the cell were absorbed by Gadolinium in UOxGd{sub 2}O{sub 3} case and thus shifting the neutron spectrum to higher energy. For the MOx case on other hand, {sup 239}Pu has a very strong absorption cross-section at low energy

  11. The Uncertainty Multiplier and Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Saijo, Hikaru

    2013-01-01

    I study a business cycle model where agents learn about the state of the economy by accumulating capital. During recessions, agents invest less, and this generates noisier estimates of macroeconomic conditions and an increase in uncertainty. The endogenous increase in aggregate uncertainty further reduces economic activity, which in turn leads to more uncertainty, and so on. Thus, through changes in uncertainty, learning gives rise to a multiplier effect that amplifies business cycles. I use ...

  12. Recent status and improvement of reduced-activation ferritic-martensitic steels for high-temperature service

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tan, L., E-mail: tanl@ornl.gov [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831 (United States); Katoh, Y. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831 (United States); Tavassoli, A.-A.F.; Henry, J. [DMN/Dir, DEN, CEA Saclay, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Rieth, M. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, 76021 (Germany); Sakasegawa, H. [National Institutes for Quantum and Radiological Science and Technology, Rokkasho, Aomori, 039-3212 (Japan); Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831 (United States); Tanigawa, H. [National Institutes for Quantum and Radiological Science and Technology, Rokkasho, Aomori, 039-3212 (Japan); Huang, Q. [Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui, 230031 (China)

    2016-10-15

    Reduced-activation ferritic-martensitic (RAFM) steels, candidate structural materials for fusion reactors, have achieved technological maturity after about three decades of research and development. The recent status of a few developmental aspects of current RAFM steels, such as aging resistance, plate thickness effects, fracture toughness, and fatigue, is updated in this paper, together with ongoing efforts to develop next-generation RAFM steels for superior high-temperature performance. In addition to thermomechanical treatments, including nonstandard heat treatment, alloy chemistry refinements and modifications have demonstrated some improvements in high-temperature performance. Castable nanostructured alloys (CNAs) were developed by significantly increasing the amount of nanoscale MX (M = V/Ta/Ti, X = C/N) precipitates and reducing coarse M{sub 23}C{sub 6} (M = Cr). Preliminary results showed promising improvement in creep resistance and Charpy impact toughness. Limited low-dose neutron irradiation results for one of the CNAs and China low activation martensitic are presented and compared with data for F82H and Eurofer97 irradiated up to ∼70 displacements per atom at ∼300–325 °C.

  13. Reducing agent-free synthesis of curcumin-loaded albumin nanoparticles by self-assembly at room temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Maryam Sadat; Shojaosadati, Seyed Abbas; Yang, Hye Gyeong; Kim, Yejin; Park, Eun Ji; Lee, Kang Choon; Na, Dong Hee

    2017-08-30

    The purpose of this study was to prepare curcumin-loaded bovine serum albumin nanoparticles (CCM-BSA-NPs) by reducing agent-free self-assembly at room temperature. A 2 4 factorial design approach was used to investigate the CCM-BSA-NP preparation process at different pH values, temperatures, dithiothreitol amounts, and CCM/BSA mass ratios. Increasing the ionic strength enabled preparation of CCM-BSA-NPs at 25°C without reducing agent. CCM-BSA-NPs prepared under the optimized conditions at 25°C showed a particle size of 110±6nm, yield of 88.5%, and drug loading of 7.1%. The CCM-BSA-NPs showed strong antioxidant activity and neuroprotective effects in glutamate-induced mouse hippocampal neuronal HT22 cells. This study suggests that ionic strength can be a key parameter affecting the preparation of albumin-based NPs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Reducing the layer number of AB stacked multilayer graphene grown on nickel by annealing at low temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, J Marquez; Giamini, S A; Kelaidis, N; Tsipas, P; Tsoutsou, D; Kordas, G; Raptis, Y S; Boukos, N; Dimoulas, A

    2015-10-09

    Controlling the number of layers of graphene grown by chemical vapor deposition is crucial for large scale graphene application. We propose here an etching process of graphene which can be applied immediately after growth to control the number of layers. We use nickel (Ni) foil at high temperature (T = 900 °C) to produce multilayer-AB-stacked-graphene (MLG). The etching process is based on annealing the samples in a hydrogen/argon atmosphere at a relatively low temperature (T = 450 °C) inside the growth chamber. The extent of etching is mainly controlled by the annealing process duration. Using Raman spectroscopy we demonstrate that the number of layers was reduced, changing from MLG to few-layer-AB-stacked-graphene and in some cases to randomly oriented few layer graphene near the substrate. Furthermore, our method offers the significant advantage that it does not introduce defects in the samples, maintaining their original high quality. This fact and the low temperature our method uses make it a good candidate for controlling the layer number of already grown graphene in processes with a low thermal budget.

  15. Facile Quantification and Identification Techniques for Reducing Gases over a Wide Concentration Range Using a MOS Sensor in Temperature-Cycled Operation

    OpenAIRE

    Caroline Schultealbert; Tobias Baur; Andreas Schütze; Tilman Sauerwald

    2018-01-01

    Dedicated methods for quantification and identification of reducing gases based on model-based temperature-cycled operation (TCO) using a single commercial MOS gas sensor are presented. During high temperature phases the sensor surface is highly oxidized, yielding a significant sensitivity increase after switching to lower temperatures (differential surface reduction, DSR). For low concentrations, the slope of the logarithmic conductance during this low-temperature phase is evaluated and can ...

  16. Towards better understanding of the response of Sphagnum peatland to increased temperature and reduced precipitation in Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juszczak, Radoslaw; Basińska, Anna; Chojnicki, Bogdan; Gąbka, Maciej; Hoffmann, Mathias; Józefczyk, Damian; Lamentowicz, Mariusz; Leśny, Jacek; Łuców, Dominika; Moni, Christophe; Reczuga, Monika; Samson, Mateusz; Silvennoinen, Hanna; Stróżecki, Marcin; Urbaniak, Marek; Zielińska, Małgorzata; Olejnik, Janusz

    2017-04-01

    With respect to climate change peatlands are highly vulnerable ecosystems. Especially a potential drying in future might result in a major carbon source and release to the atmosphere. We carried out a field climate manipulation experiment at Rzecin peatland in western Poland to assess how increased temperature and reduced precipitation may impact carbon balance, vegetation, microbes and water chemistry of the Sphagnum peatland. Here, we present results of measurements conducted in two contrasting years (417 mm and 678 mm of precipitation in very dry 2015 and wet 2016, respectively). The experimental design consists of four treatments, each one replicated three times (control, CO; simulated warming, W; prolonged drought, D and warming & drought, W+D). Increased temperatures (T) during the year were achieved by infrared heaters (400W × 4 per site, approx. 60 Wṡm-2 addition of LW radiation). Precipitation was reduced using an automatic curtain, covering the site during nighttime hours of the growth seasons. The manipulation experiment was successful during both years, increasing the air (30 cm height) and soil temperature (5 cm depth, sites W and D) by up to 0.2 oC and 1.0 oC, respectively. Precipitation was reduced to 37 % during both years. At W+D site the peat temperature was nearly two times higher than on W site indicating the impact of drought on T increase. To study the C exchange we developed an automatic mobile platform for measuring CO2/CH4/H2O fluxes (LGR) as well as 13CO2 and 13CH4 fluxes (PICARRO CRDS G2201-i). Measurements were performed, using dynamic ecosystem chambers (for NEE and Reco) and combined with simultaneous measurements of surface spectral properties. Flux calculation and gap filling was done according to Hoffmann et al. 2015. Methane emissions were significantly higher on manipulated plots than on CO (25 gCṡm-2yr-1) during both years, but only in the very dry 2015, CH4 fluxes were the highest on W+D site (33 gC gCṡm-2yr-1). Besides

  17. Improving the temperature predictions of subsurface thermal models by using high-quality input data. Part 1: Uncertainty analysis of the thermal-conductivity parameterization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuchs, Sven; Balling, Niels

    2016-01-01

    The subsurface temperature field and the geothermal conditions in sedimentary basins are frequently examined by using numerical thermal models. For those models, detailed knowledge of rock thermal properties are paramount for a reliable parameterization of layer properties and boundary conditions...

  18. Can Temperate-Water Immersion Effectively Reduce Rectal Temperature in Exertional Heat Stroke? A Critically Appraised Topic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truxton, Tyler T; Miller, Kevin C

    2017-09-01

    Clinical Scenario: Exertional heat stroke (EHS) is a medical emergency which, if left untreated, can result in death. The standard of care for EHS patients includes confirmation of hyperthermia via rectal temperature (T rec ) and then immediate cold-water immersion (CWI). While CWI is the fastest way to reduce T rec , it may be difficult to lower and maintain water bath temperature in the recommended ranges (1.7°C-15°C [35°F-59°F]) because of limited access to ice and/or the bath being exposed to high ambient temperatures for long periods of time. Determining if T rec cooling rates are acceptable (ie, >0.08°C/min) when significantly hyperthermic humans are immersed in temperate water (ie, ≥20°C [68°F]) has applications for how EHS patients are treated in the field. Are T rec cooling rates acceptable (≥0.08°C/min) when significantly hyperthermic humans are immersed in temperate water? T rec cooling rates of hyperthermic humans immersed in temperate water (≥20°C [68°F]) ranged from 0.06°C/min to 0.19°C/min. The average T rec cooling rate for all examined studies was 0.11±0.06°C/min. Clinical Bottom Line: Temperature water immersion (TWI) provides acceptable (ie, >0.08°C/min) T rec cooling rates for hyperthermic humans post-exercise. However, CWI cooling rates are higher and should be used if feasible (eg, access to ice, shaded treatment areas). Strength of Recommendation: The majority of evidence (eg, Level 2 studies with PEDro scores ≥5) suggests TWI provides acceptable, though not ideal, T rec cooling. If possible, CWI should be used instead of TWI in EHS scenarios.

  19. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1,3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.

  20. Uncertainty and measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landsberg, P.T.

    1990-01-01

    This paper explores how the quantum mechanics uncertainty relation can be considered to result from measurements. A distinction is drawn between the uncertainties obtained by scrutinising experiments and the standard deviation type of uncertainty definition used in quantum formalism. (UK)

  1. An analysis of the uncertainty in temperature and density estimates from fitting model spectra to data. 1998 summer research program for high school juniors at the University of Rochester's Laboratory for Laser Energetics. Student research reports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schubmehl, M.

    1999-03-01

    Temperature and density histories of direct-drive laser fusion implosions are important to an understanding of the reaction's progress. Such measurements also document phenomena such as preheating of the core and improper compression that can interfere with the thermonuclear reaction. Model x-ray spectra from the non-LTE (local thermodynamic equilibrium) radiation transport post-processor for LILAC have recently been fitted to OMEGA data. The spectrum fitting code reads in a grid of model spectra and uses an iterative weighted least-squares algorithm to perform a fit to experimental data, based on user-input parameter estimates. The purpose of this research was to upgrade the fitting code to compute formal uncertainties on fitted quantities, and to provide temperature and density estimates with error bars. A standard error-analysis process was modified to compute these formal uncertainties from information about the random measurement error in the data. Preliminary tests of the code indicate that the variances it returns are both reasonable and useful

  2. Temperature Data Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillespie, David

    2003-01-01

    Groundwater temperature is sensitive to the competing processes of heat flow from below the advective transport of heat by groundwater flow. Because groundwater temperature is sensitive to conductive and advective processes, groundwater temperature may be utilized as a tracer to further constrain the uncertainty of predictions of advective radionuclide transport models constructed for the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Since heat transport, geochemical, and hydrologic models for a given area must all be consistent, uncertainty can be reduced by devaluing the weight of those models that do not match estimated heat flow. The objective of this study was to identify the quantity and quality of available heat flow data at the NTS. One-hundred-forty-five temperature logs from 63 boreholes were examined. Thirteen were found to have temperature profiles suitable for the determination of heat flow values from one or more intervals within the boreholes. If sufficient spatially distributed heat flow values are obtained, a heat transport model coupled to a hydrologic model may be used to reduce the uncertainty of a nonisothermal hydrologic model of the NTS

  3. Potential for reducing air-pollutants while achieving 2 °C global temperature change limit target.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Akashi, Osamu; Fujiwara, Kazuya; Motoki, Yuko; Hibino, Go

    2014-12-01

    This study analyzes the potential to reduce air pollutants while achieving the 2 °C global temperature change limit target above pre-industrial levels, by using the bottom-up optimization model, AIM/Enduse[Global]. This study focuses on; 1) estimating mitigation potentials and costs for achieving 2 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3 °C target scenarios, 2) assessing co-benefits of reducing air pollutants such as NOx, SO2, BC, PM, and 3) analyzing features of sectoral attributions in Annex I and Non-Annex I groups of countries. The carbon tax scenario at 50 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 can reduce GHG emissions more than the 3 °C target scenario, but a higher carbon price around 400 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 is required to achieve the 2 °C target scenario. However, there is also a co-benefit of large reduction potential of air pollutants, in the range of 60-80% reductions in 2050 from the reference scenario while achieving the 2 °C target. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Deterministic uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1987-12-01

    This paper presents a deterministic uncertainty analysis (DUA) method for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs compared to conventional statistical analysis. The method is based upon the availability of derivative and sensitivity data such as that calculated using the well known direct or adjoint sensitivity analysis techniques. Formation of response surfaces using derivative data and the propagation of input probability distributions are discussed relative to their role in the DUA method. A sample problem that models the flow of water through a borehole is used as a basis to compare the cumulative distribution function of the flow rate as calculated by the standard statistical methods and the DUA method. Propogation of uncertainties by the DUA method is compared for ten cases in which the number of reference model runs was varied from one to ten. The DUA method gives a more accurate representation of the true cumulative distribution of the flow rate based upon as few as two model executions compared to fifty model executions using a statistical approach. 16 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs

  5. Reducing Uncertainties in the Production of the Gamma-emitting Nuclei {sup 26}Al, {sup 44}Ti, and {sup 60}Fe in Core-collapse Supernovae by Using Effective Helium Burning Rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Austin, Sam M. [National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, Michigan State University, 640 South Shaw Lane, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); West, Christopher; Heger, Alexander, E-mail: austin@nscl.msu.edu, E-mail: christopher.west@metrostate.edu, E-mail: Alexander.Heger@Monash.edu [Joint Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics—Center for the Evolution of the Elements, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States)

    2017-04-10

    We have used effective reaction rates (ERRs) for the helium burning reactions to predict the yield of the gamma-emitting nuclei {sup 26}Al, {sup 44}Ti, and {sup 60}Fe in core-collapse supernovae (SNe). The variations in the predicted yields for values of the reaction rates allowed by the ERR are much smaller than obtained previously, and smaller than other uncertainties. A “filter” for SN nucleosynthesis yields based on pre-SN structure was used to estimate the effect of failed SNe on the initial mass function averaged yields; this substantially reduced the yields of all these isotopes, but the predicted yield ratio {sup 60}Fe/{sup 26}Al was little affected. The robustness of this ratio is promising for comparison with data, but it is larger than observed in nature; possible causes for this discrepancy are discussed.

  6. Effect of temperature on sulphate reduction, growth rate and growth yield in five psychrophilic sulphate-reducing bacteria from Arctic sediments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knoblauch, C.; Jørgensen, BB

    1999-01-01

    Five psychrophilic sulphate-reducing bacteria (strains ASv26, LSv21, PSv29, LSv54 and LSv514) isolated from Arctic sediments were examined for their adaptation to permanently low temperatures, All strains grew at -1.8 degrees C, the freezing point of sea water, but their optimum temperature...... and T(opt). For strains LSv21 and LSv514, however, growth yields were highest at the lowest temperatures, around 0 degrees C. The results indicate that psychrophilic sulphate-reducing bacteria are specially adapted to permanently low temperatures by high relative growth rates and high growth yields...... at in site conditions....

  7. BN-600 MOX Core Benchmark Analysis. Results from Phases 4 and 6 of a Coordinated Research Project on Updated Codes and Methods to Reduce the Calculational Uncertainties of the LMFR Reactivity Effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-12-01

    For those Member States that have or have had significant fast reactor development programmes, it is of utmost importance that they have validated up to date codes and methods for fast reactor physics analysis in support of R and D and core design activities in the area of actinide utilization and incineration. In particular, some Member States have recently focused on fast reactor systems for minor actinide transmutation and on cores optimized for consuming rather than breeding plutonium; the physics of the breeder reactor cycle having already been widely investigated. Plutonium burning systems may have an important role in managing plutonium stocks until the time when major programmes of self-sufficient fast breeder reactors are established. For assessing the safety of these systems, it is important to determine the prediction accuracy of transient simulations and their associated reactivity coefficients. In response to Member States' expressed interest, the IAEA sponsored a coordinated research project (CRP) on Updated Codes and Methods to Reduce the Calculational Uncertainties of the LMFR Reactivity Effects. The CRP started in November 1999 and, at the first meeting, the members of the CRP endorsed a benchmark on the BN-600 hybrid core for consideration in its first studies. Benchmark analyses of the BN-600 hybrid core were performed during the first three phases of the CRP, investigating different nuclear data and levels of approximation in the calculation of safety related reactivity effects and their influence on uncertainties in transient analysis prediction. In an additional phase of the benchmark studies, experimental data were used for the verification and validation of nuclear data libraries and methods in support of the previous three phases. The results of phases 1, 2, 3 and 5 of the CRP are reported in IAEA-TECDOC-1623, BN-600 Hybrid Core Benchmark Analyses, Results from a Coordinated Research Project on Updated Codes and Methods to Reduce the

  8. Characterizing Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novack, Steven D.; Rogers, Jim; Hark, Frank; Al Hassan, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has the task of estimating the aleatory (randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty of launch vehicle loss of mission and crew risk and communicating the results. Launch vehicles are complex engineered systems designed with sophisticated subsystems that are built to work together to accomplish mission success. Some of these systems or subsystems are in the form of heritage equipment, while some have never been previously launched. For these cases, characterizing the epistemic uncertainty is of foremost importance, and it is anticipated that the epistemic uncertainty of a modified launch vehicle design versus a design of well understood heritage equipment would be greater. For reasons that will be discussed, standard uncertainty propagation methods using Monte Carlo simulation produce counter intuitive results and significantly underestimate epistemic uncertainty for launch vehicle models. Furthermore, standard PRA methods such as Uncertainty-Importance analyses used to identify components that are significant contributors to uncertainty are rendered obsolete since sensitivity to uncertainty changes are not reflected in propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo methods.This paper provides a basis of the uncertainty underestimation for complex systems and especially, due to nuances of launch vehicle logic, for launch vehicles. It then suggests several alternative methods for estimating uncertainty and provides examples of estimation results. Lastly, the paper shows how to implement an Uncertainty-Importance analysis using one alternative approach, describes the results, and suggests ways to reduce epistemic uncertainty by focusing on additional data or testing of selected components.

  9. Interference competition and high temperatures reduce the virulence of fig wasps and stabilize a fig-wasp mutualism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui-Wu Wang

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Fig trees are pollinated by fig wasps, which also oviposit in female flowers. The wasp larvae gall and eat developing seeds. Although fig trees benefit from allowing wasps to oviposit, because the wasp offspring disperse pollen, figs must prevent wasps from ovipositing in all flowers, or seed production would cease, and the mutualism would go extinct. In Ficus racemosa, we find that syconia ('figs' that have few foundresses (ovipositing wasps are underexploited in the summer (few seeds, few galls, many empty ovules and are overexploited in the winter (few seeds, many galls, few empty ovules. Conversely, syconia with many foundresses produce intermediate numbers of galls and seeds, regardless of season. We use experiments to explain these patterns, and thus, to explain how this mutualism is maintained. In the hot summer, wasps suffer short lifespans and therefore fail to oviposit in many flowers. In contrast, cooler temperatures in the winter permit longer wasp lifespans, which in turn allows most flowers to be exploited by the wasps. However, even in winter, only in syconia that happen to have few foundresses are most flowers turned into galls. In syconia with higher numbers of foundresses, interference competition reduces foundress lifespans, which reduces the proportion of flowers that are galled. We further show that syconia encourage the entry of multiple foundresses by delaying ostiole closure. Taken together, these factors allow fig trees to reduce galling in the wasp-benign winter and boost galling (and pollination in the wasp-stressing summer. Interference competition has been shown to reduce virulence in pathogenic bacteria. Our results show that interference also maintains cooperation in a classic, cooperative symbiosis, thus linking theories of virulence and mutualism. More generally, our results reveal how frequency-dependent population regulation can occur in the fig-wasp mutualism, and how a host species can 'set the rules of the

  10. Influence of DAD-TA temperature-reducing additive on physical and mechanical properties of bitumen and compaction of asphalt concrete.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadykina, V. V.; Akimov, A. E.; Trautvain, A. I.; Kholopov, V. S.

    2018-03-01

    The paper is devoted to the use of DAD-TA temperature-reducing additive for the preparation and pouring of asphalt concrete mixes at reduced temperatures. It also shows positive influence of the modified bitumen on the efficiency of organo-mineral composite compaction at reduced temperatures. Physical and mechanical properties of asphalt concrete with the use of bitumen modified by DAD-TA additive including indicators characterizing road surfacing life are presented. Arguments to use this material from the point of view of its production technology and environmental impact are given.

  11. Measurement uncertainty: Friend or foe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Infusino, Ilenia; Panteghini, Mauro

    2018-02-02

    The definition and enforcement of a reference measurement system, based on the implementation of metrological traceability of patients' results to higher order reference methods and materials, together with a clinically acceptable level of measurement uncertainty, are fundamental requirements to produce accurate and equivalent laboratory results. The uncertainty associated with each step of the traceability chain should be governed to obtain a final combined uncertainty on clinical samples fulfilling the requested performance specifications. It is important that end-users (i.e., clinical laboratory) may know and verify how in vitro diagnostics (IVD) manufacturers have implemented the traceability of their calibrators and estimated the corresponding uncertainty. However, full information about traceability and combined uncertainty of calibrators is currently very difficult to obtain. Laboratory professionals should investigate the need to reduce the uncertainty of the higher order metrological references and/or to increase the precision of commercial measuring systems. Accordingly, the measurement uncertainty should not be considered a parameter to be calculated by clinical laboratories just to fulfil the accreditation standards, but it must become a key quality indicator to describe both the performance of an IVD measuring system and the laboratory itself. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Photovoltaic Calibrations at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Uncertainty Analysis Following the ISO 17025 Guidelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emery, Keith [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-09-01

    The measurement of photovoltaic (PV) performance with respect to reference conditions requires measuring current versus voltage for a given tabular reference spectrum, junction temperature, and total irradiance. This report presents the procedures implemented by the PV Cell and Module Performance Characterization Group at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to achieve the lowest practical uncertainty. A rigorous uncertainty analysis of these procedures is presented, which follows the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. This uncertainty analysis is required for the team’s laboratory accreditation under ISO standard 17025, “General Requirements for the Competence of Testing and Calibration Laboratories.” The report also discusses additional areas where the uncertainty can be reduced.

  13. Application of status uncertainty analysis methods for AP1000 LBLOCA calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Shunxiang; Liang Guoxing

    2012-01-01

    Parameter uncertainty analysis is developed by using the reasonable method to establish the response relations between input parameter uncertainties and output uncertainties. The application of the parameter uncertainty analysis makes the simulation of plant state more accuracy and improves the plant economy with reasonable security assurance. The AP1000 LBLOCA was analyzed in this paper and the results indicate that the random sampling statistical analysis method, sensitivity analysis numerical method and traditional error propagation analysis method can provide quite large peak cladding temperature (PCT) safety margin, which is much helpful for choosing suitable uncertainty analysis method to improve the plant economy. Additionally, the random sampling statistical analysis method applying mathematical statistics theory makes the largest safety margin due to the reducing of the conservation. Comparing with the traditional conservative bounding parameter analysis method, the random sampling method can provide the PCT margin of 100 K, while the other two methods can only provide 50-60 K. (authors)

  14. Hyperphagia, lower body temperature, and reduced running wheel activity precede development of morbid obesity in New Zealand obese mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jürgens, Hella S; Schürmann, Annette; Kluge, Reinhart; Ortmann, Sylvia; Klaus, Susanne; Joost, Hans-Georg; Tschöp, Matthias H

    2006-04-13

    Among polygenic mouse models of obesity, the New Zealand obese (NZO) mouse exhibits the most severe phenotype, with fat depots exceeding 40% of total body weight at the age of 6 mo. Here we dissected the components of energy balance including feeding behavior, locomotor activity, energy expenditure, and thermogenesis compared with the related lean New Zealand black (NZB) and obese B6.V-Lep(ob)/J (ob/ob) strains (11% and 65% fat at 23 wk, respectively). NZO mice exhibited a significant hyperphagia that, when food intake was expressed per metabolic body mass, was less pronounced than that of the ob/ob strain. Compared with NZB, NZO mice exhibited increased meal frequency, meal duration, and meal size. Body temperature as determined by telemetry with implanted sensors was reduced in NZO mice, but again to a lesser extent than in the ob/ob strain. In striking contrast to ob/ob mice, NZO mice were able to maintain a constant body temperature during a 20-h cold exposure, thus exhibiting a functioning cold-induced thermogenesis. No significant differences in spontaneous home cage activity were observed among NZO, NZB, and ob/ob strains. When mice had access to voluntary running wheels, however, running activity was significantly lower in NZO than NZB mice and even lower in ob/ob mice. These data indicate that obesity in NZO mice, just as in humans, is due to a combination of hyperphagia, reduced energy expenditure, and insufficient physical activity. Because NZO mice differ strikingly from the ob/ob strain in their resistance to cold stress, we suggest that the molecular defects causing hyperphagia in NZO mice are located distal from leptin and its receptor.

  15. The use of reduced temperatures for reversible developmental arrest of organ cultures prior to spaceflight experimentation and for postflight analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klement, B.J. [Space Medicine and Life Sciences Research Center Department of Anatomy Morehouse School of Medicine 720 Westview Dr. S.W. Atlanta, Georgia30310-1495 (United States); van Twest, J. [The Bionetics Corporation Life Sciences Support Facility Hanger L Mailcode Bio-3 Kennedy Space Center, Florida32899 (United States); Staudenmaier, R.A.; Brittain, H.; Spooner, B.S. [NASA Specialized Center of Research and Training Division of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan, Kansas66506 (United States)

    1997-01-01

    One complication of using rapidly growing and developing tissues for spaceflight experimentation is that, due to early turnover and launch delays, the tissues often undergo complete development before orbit is achieved. We conducted a series of studies using three different types of tissue, chick pre-cardiac explants, embryonic mouse lung rudiments and embryonic mouse pre-metatarsal mesenchyme, to examine the use of reduced temperature as an inexpensive means to slow growth and development, before the experiment begins. Pre-cardiac explants could be held at 4{degree}C (277K), 13{degree}C (286K), or 22{degree}C (295K) for up to 48 hours and still begin normal beating within 24 hours of culture at 37{degree}C (310K). Lung explants could be held at 5{degree}C (278K), 15{degree}C (288K), and 24{degree}C (297K) for 3{endash}6 days without clefts changing in appearance, but would resume branching morphogenesis and growth after being placed at 37{degree}C (310K). Pre-metatarsal cultures could be held at 15{degree}C (288K), 22{degree}C (295K) and 24{degree}C (297K) for 6 days with very little change in rod length. After additional incubation at 37{degree}C (310K) the rods increased in length and mineralized. These results suggest that incubation at temperatures below standard culture temperature are capable of slowing tissue growth, but growth and development will resume after standard incubation. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}

  16. Effect of heat treatment and irradiation temperature on impact behavior of irradiated reduced-activation ferritic steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klueh, R.L.; Alexander, D.J.

    1998-01-01

    Charpy tests were conducted on eight normalized-and-tempered reduced-activation ferritic steels irradiated in two different normalized conditions. Irradiation was conducted in the Fast Flux Test Facility at 393 C to ∼14 dpa on steels with 2.25, 5, 9, and 12% Cr (0.1% C) with varying amounts of W, V, and Ta. The different normalization treatments involved changing the cooling rate after austenitization. The faster cooling rate produced 100% bainite in the 2.25 Cr steels, compared to duplex structures of bainite and polygonal ferrite for the slower cooling rate. For both cooling rates, martensite formed in the 5 and 9% Cr steels, and martensite with ∼25% δ-ferrite formed in the 12% Cr steel. Irradiation caused an increase in the ductile-brittle transition temperature (DBTT) and a decrease in the upper-shelf energy. The difference in microstructure in the low-chromium steels due to the different heat treatments had little effect on properties. For the high-chromium martensitic steels, only the 5 Cr steel was affected by heat treatment. When the results at 393 C were compared with previous results at 365 C, all but a 5 Cr and a 9 Cr steel showed the expected decrease in the shift in DBTT with increasing temperature

  17. Microstructure of V-based ohmic contacts to AlGaN/GaN heterostructures at a reduced annealing temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmid, A., E-mail: alexander.schmid@physik.tu-freiberg.de; Schroeter, Ch.; Otto, R.; Heitmann, J. [Institute of Applied Physics, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg (Germany); Schuster, M. [Namlab gGmbH, 01187 Dresden (Germany); Klemm, V.; Rafaja, D. [Institute of Materials Science, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg (Germany)

    2015-02-02

    Ohmic contacts with V/Al/Ni/Au and V/Ni/Au metalization schemes were deposited on AlGaN/GaN heterostructures. The dependence of the specific contact resistance on the annealing conditions and the V:Al thickness ratio was shown. For an optimized electrode stack, a low specific contact resistance of 8.9 × 10{sup −6} Ω cm{sup 2} was achieved at an annealing temperature of 650 °C. Compared to the conventional Ti/Al/Ni/Au contact, this is a reduction of 150 K. The microstructure and contact formation at the AlGaN/metal interface were investigated by transmission electron microscopy including high-resolution micrographs and energy dispersive X-ray analysis. It was shown that for low-resistive contacts, the resistivity of the metalization has to be taken into account. The V:Al thickness ratio has an impact on the formation of different intermetallic phases and thus is crucial for establishing ohmic contacts at reduced annealing temperatures.

  18. Sources of uncertainty in future changes in local precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowell, David P. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2012-10-15

    This study considers the large uncertainty in projected changes in local precipitation. It aims to map, and begin to understand, the relative roles of uncertain modelling and natural variability, using 20-year mean data from four perturbed physics or multi-model ensembles. The largest - 280-member - ensemble illustrates a rich pattern in the varying contribution of modelling uncertainty, with similar features found using a CMIP3 ensemble (despite its limited sample size, which restricts it value in this context). The contribution of modelling uncertainty to the total uncertainty in local precipitation change is found to be highest in the deep tropics, particularly over South America, Africa, the east and central Pacific, and the Atlantic. In the moist maritime tropics, the highly uncertain modelling of sea-surface temperature changes is transmitted to a large uncertain modelling of local rainfall changes. Over tropical land and summer mid-latitude continents (and to a lesser extent, the tropical oceans), uncertain modelling of atmospheric processes, land surface processes and the terrestrial carbon cycle all appear to play an additional substantial role in driving the uncertainty of local rainfall changes. In polar regions, inter-model variability of anomalous sea ice drives an uncertain precipitation response, particularly in winter. In all these regions, there is therefore the potential to reduce the uncertainty of local precipitation changes through targeted model improvements and observational constraints. In contrast, over much of the arid subtropical and mid-latitude oceans, over Australia, and over the Sahara in winter, internal atmospheric variability dominates the uncertainty in projected precipitation changes. Here, model improvements and observational constraints will have little impact on the uncertainty of time means shorter than at least 20 years. Last, a supplementary application of the metric developed here is that it can be interpreted as a measure

  19. The Uncertainties of Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinnari, Eija; Skærbæk, Peter

    2014-01-01

    for expanding risk management. More generally, such uncertainties relate to the professional identities and responsibilities of operational managers as defined by the framing devices. Originality/value – The paper offers three contributions to the extant literature: first, it shows how risk management itself......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implementation of risk management as a tool for internal audit activities, focusing on unexpected effects or uncertainties generated during its application. Design/methodology/approach – Public and confidential documents as well as semi......-structured interviews are analysed through the lens of actor-network theory to identify the effects of risk management devices in a Finnish municipality. Findings – The authors found that risk management, rather than reducing uncertainty, itself created unexpected uncertainties that would otherwise not have emerged...

  20. The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

    1994-01-01

    All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties

  1. Assessment of the computational uncertainty of temperature rise and SAR in the eyes and brain under far-field exposure from 1 to 10 GHz

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laakso, Ilkka

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) calculations of specific absorption rate (SAR) values in the head under plane-wave exposure from 1 to 10 GHz using a resolution of 0.5 mm in adult male and female voxel models. Temperature rise due to the power absorption is calculated by the bioheat equation using a multigrid method solver. The computational accuracy is investigated by repeating the calculations with resolutions of 1 mm and 2 mm and comparing the results. Cubically averaged 10 g SAR in the eyes and brain and eye-averaged SAR are calculated and compared to the corresponding temperature rise as well as the recommended limits for exposure. The results suggest that 2 mm resolution should only be used for frequencies smaller than 2.5 GHz, and 1 mm resolution only under 5 GHz. Morphological differences in models seemed to be an important cause of variation: differences in results between the two different models were usually larger than the computational error due to the grid resolution, and larger than the difference between the results for open and closed eyes. Limiting the incident plane-wave power density to smaller than 100 W m -2 was sufficient for ensuring that the temperature rise in the eyes and brain were less than 1 deg. C in the whole frequency range.

  2. Assessment of the computational uncertainty of temperature rise and SAR in the eyes and brain under far-field exposure from 1 to 10 GHz

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laakso, Ilkka

    2009-06-01

    This paper presents finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) calculations of specific absorption rate (SAR) values in the head under plane-wave exposure from 1 to 10 GHz using a resolution of 0.5 mm in adult male and female voxel models. Temperature rise due to the power absorption is calculated by the bioheat equation using a multigrid method solver. The computational accuracy is investigated by repeating the calculations with resolutions of 1 mm and 2 mm and comparing the results. Cubically averaged 10 g SAR in the eyes and brain and eye-averaged SAR are calculated and compared to the corresponding temperature rise as well as the recommended limits for exposure. The results suggest that 2 mm resolution should only be used for frequencies smaller than 2.5 GHz, and 1 mm resolution only under 5 GHz. Morphological differences in models seemed to be an important cause of variation: differences in results between the two different models were usually larger than the computational error due to the grid resolution, and larger than the difference between the results for open and closed eyes. Limiting the incident plane-wave power density to smaller than 100 W m-2 was sufficient for ensuring that the temperature rise in the eyes and brain were less than 1 °C in the whole frequency range.

  3. Assessment of the computational uncertainty of temperature rise and SAR in the eyes and brain under far-field exposure from 1 to 10 GHz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laakso, Ilkka [Department of Radio Science and Engineering, Helsinki University of Technology, Otakaari 5 A, 02150 Espoo (Finland)], E-mail: ilkka.laakso@tkk.fi

    2009-06-07

    This paper presents finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) calculations of specific absorption rate (SAR) values in the head under plane-wave exposure from 1 to 10 GHz using a resolution of 0.5 mm in adult male and female voxel models. Temperature rise due to the power absorption is calculated by the bioheat equation using a multigrid method solver. The computational accuracy is investigated by repeating the calculations with resolutions of 1 mm and 2 mm and comparing the results. Cubically averaged 10 g SAR in the eyes and brain and eye-averaged SAR are calculated and compared to the corresponding temperature rise as well as the recommended limits for exposure. The results suggest that 2 mm resolution should only be used for frequencies smaller than 2.5 GHz, and 1 mm resolution only under 5 GHz. Morphological differences in models seemed to be an important cause of variation: differences in results between the two different models were usually larger than the computational error due to the grid resolution, and larger than the difference between the results for open and closed eyes. Limiting the incident plane-wave power density to smaller than 100 W m{sup -2} was sufficient for ensuring that the temperature rise in the eyes and brain were less than 1 deg. C in the whole frequency range.

  4. Treatment of uncertainty in low-level waste performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozak, M.W.; Olague, N.E.; Gallegos, D.P.; Rao, R.R.

    1991-01-01

    Uncertainties arise from a number of different sources in low-level waste performance assessment. In this paper the types of uncertainty are reviewed, and existing methods for quantifying and reducing each type of uncertainty are discussed. These approaches are examined in the context of the current low-level radioactive waste regulatory performance objectives, which are deterministic. The types of uncertainty discussed in this paper are model uncertainty, uncertainty about future conditions, and parameter uncertainty. The advantages and disadvantages of available methods for addressing uncertainty in low-level waste performance assessment are presented. 25 refs

  5. Reducing the uncertainties in particle therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oancea, C., E-mail: oancea@jinr.ru [Laboratory of Nuclear Problems, Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, 6 Joliot-Curie Street, 141980, Dubna, Moscow Region, Russia and Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest, Atomistilor Street 405, 077125 Bucharest-Magurele, Ilfov Region (Romania); Shipulin, K. N.; Mytsin, G. V.; Luchin, Y. I. [Laboratory of Nuclear Problems, Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, 6 Joliot-Curie Street, 141980, Dubna, Moscow Region (Russian Federation)

    2015-02-24

    The use of fundamental Nuclear Physics in Nuclear Medicine has a significant impact in the fight against cancer. Hadrontherapy is an innovative cancer radiotherapy method using nuclear particles (protons, neutrons and ions) for the treatment of early and advanced tumors. The main goal of proton therapy is to deliver high radiation doses to the tumor volume with minimal damage to healthy tissues and organs. The purpose of this work was to investigate the dosimetric errors in clinical proton therapy dose calculation due to the presence of metallic implants in the treatment plan, and to determine the impact of the errors. The results indicate that the errors introduced by the treatment planning systems are higher than 10% in the prediction of the dose at isocenter when the proton beam is passing directly through a metallic titanium alloy implant. In conclusion, we recommend that pencil-beam algorithms not be used when planning treatment for patients with titanium alloy implants, and to consider implementing methods to mitigate the effects of the implants.

  6. Luminal esophageal temperature monitoring with a deflectable esophageal temperature probe and intracardiac echocardiography may reduce esophageal injury during atrial fibrillation ablation procedures: results of a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leite, Luiz R; Santos, Simone N; Maia, Henrique; Henz, Benhur D; Giuseppin, Fábio; Oliverira, Anderson; Zanatta, André R; Peres, Ayrton K; Novakoski, Clarissa; Barreto, Jose R; Vassalo, Fabrício; d'Avila, Andre; Singh, Sheldon M

    2011-04-01

    Luminal esophageal temperature (LET) monitoring is one strategy to minimize esophageal injury during atrial fibrillation ablation procedures. However, esophageal ulceration and fistulas have been reported despite adequate LET monitoring. The objective of this study was to assess a novel approach to LET monitoring with a deflectable LET probe on the rate of esophageal injury in patients undergoing atrial fibrillation ablation. Forty-five consecutive patients undergoing an atrial fibrillation ablation procedure followed by esophageal endoscopy were included in this prospective observational pilot study. LET monitoring was performed with a 7F deflectable ablation catheter that was positioned as close as possible to the site of left atrial ablation using the deflectable component of the catheter guided by visualization of its position on intracardiac echocardiography. Ablation in the posterior left atrial was limited to 25 W and terminated when the LET increased 2°C from baseline. Endoscopy was performed 1 to 2 days after the procedure. All patients had at least 1 LET elevation >2°C necessitating cessation of ablation. Deflection of the LET probe was needed to accurately measure LET in 5% of patients when ablating near the left pulmonary veins, whereas deflection of the LET probe was necessary in 88% of patients when ablating near the right pulmonary veins. The average maximum increase in LET was 2.5±1.5°C. No patients had esophageal thermal injury on follow-up endoscopy. A strategy of optimal LET probe placement using a deflectable LET probe and intracardiac echocardiography guidance, combined with cessation of radiofrequency ablation with a 2°C rise in LET, may reduce esophageal thermal injury during left atrial ablation procedures.

  7. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    OpenAIRE

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size uncertainty). Several researchers have therefore asked themselves the question as to how such uncertainty influences people’s choice behavior. These researchers have repeatedly concluded that uncertainty...

  8. Reduced model prediction of electron temperature profiles in microtearing-dominated National Spherical Torus eXperiment plasmas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaye, S. M., E-mail: skaye@pppl.gov; Guttenfelder, W.; Bell, R. E.; Gerhardt, S. P.; LeBlanc, B. P.; Maingi, R. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08543 (United States)

    2014-08-15

    A representative H-mode discharge from the National Spherical Torus eXperiment is studied in detail to utilize it as a basis for a time-evolving prediction of the electron temperature profile using an appropriate reduced transport model. The time evolution of characteristic plasma variables such as β{sub e}, ν{sub e}{sup ∗}, the MHD α parameter, and the gradient scale lengths of T{sub e}, T{sub i}, and n{sub e} were examined as a prelude to performing linear gyrokinetic calculations to determine the fastest growing micro instability at various times and locations throughout the discharge. The inferences from the parameter evolutions and the linear stability calculations were consistent. Early in the discharge, when β{sub e} and ν{sub e}{sup ∗} were relatively low, ballooning parity modes were dominant. As time progressed and both β{sub e} and ν{sub e}{sup ∗} increased, microtearing became the dominant low-k{sub θ} mode, especially in the outer half of the plasma. There are instances in time and radius, however, where other modes, at higher-k{sub θ}, may, in addition to microtearing, be important for driving electron transport. Given these results, the Rebut-Lallia-Watkins (RLW) electron thermal diffusivity model, which is based on microtearing-induced transport, was used to predict the time-evolving electron temperature across most of the profile. The results indicate that RLW does a good job of predicting T{sub e} for times and locations where microtearing was determined to be important, but not as well when microtearing was predicted to be stable or subdominant.

  9. Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike E. L.; Frame, David J.; Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R.

    2015-10-01

    The 'pledge and review' approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions presents an opportunity to link mitigation goals explicitly to the evolving climate response. This seems desirable because the progression from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fourth to fifth assessment reports has seen little reduction in uncertainty. A common reaction to persistent uncertainties is to advocate mitigation policies that are robust even under worst-case scenarios, thereby focusing attention on upper extremes of both the climate response and the costs of impacts and mitigation, all of which are highly contestable. Here we ask whether those contributing to the formation of climate policies can learn from 'adaptive management' techniques. Recognizing that long-lived greenhouse gas emissions have to be net zero by the time temperatures reach a target stabilization level, such as 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and anchoring commitments to an agreed index of attributable anthropogenic warming would provide a transparent approach to meeting such a temperature goal without prior consensus on the climate response.

  10. Reduced thermal budget processing of Y--Ba--Cu--O high temperature superconducting thin films by metalorganic chemical vapor deposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, R.; Sinha, S.; Hsu, N.J.; Ng, J.T.C.; Chou, P.; Thakur, R.P.S.; Narayan, J.

    1991-01-01

    Metalorganic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) has the potential of emerging as a viable technique to fabricate ribbons, tapes, coated wires, and the deposition of films of high temperature superconductors, and related materials. As a reduced thermal budget processing technique, rapid isothermal processing (RIP) based on incoherent radiation as the source of energy can be usefully coupled to conventional MOCVD. In this paper we report on the deposition and characterization of high quality superconducting thin films of Y--Ba--Cu--O (YBCO) on MgO and SrTiO 3 substrates by RIP assisted MOCVD. By using a mixture of N 2 O and O 2 as the oxygen source films deposited initially at 600 degree C for 1 min and then at 740 degree C for 30 min are primarily c-axis oriented and with zero resistance being observed at 84 and 89 K for MgO and SrTiO 3 substrates, respectively. The zero magnetic field current densities at 77 K for MgO and SrTiO 3 substrates are 1.2x10 6 and 1.5x10 6 A/cm 2 , respectively. It is envisaged that high energy photons from the incoherent light source and the use of a mixture of N 2 O and O 2 as the oxygen source, assist chemical reactions and lower overall thermal budget for processing of these films

  11. Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty of Hyporheic Exchange Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, R.; Bennett, J.; Dugge, J.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.

    2017-12-01

    Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of water between rivers and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic fluxes have been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. This research aims to evaluate which aspect of the subsurface representation - the spatial distribution of hydrofacies or the model for local-scale (within-facies) heterogeneity - most influences the predictive uncertainty. Also, we seek to identify data types that help reduce this uncertainty best. For this investigation, we conduct a modelling study of the Steinlach River meander, in Southwest Germany. The Steinlach River meander is an experimental site established in 2010 to monitor hyporheic exchange at the meander scale. We use HydroGeoSphere, a fully integrated surface water-groundwater model, to model hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive uncertainty of hyporheic exchange transit times (HETT). A highly parameterized complex model is built and treated as `virtual reality', which is in turn modelled with simpler subsurface parameterization schemes (Figure). Then, we conduct Monte-Carlo simulations with these models to estimate the predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that: Uncertainty in HETT is relatively small for early times and increases with transit times. Uncertainty from local-scale heterogeneity is negligible compared to uncertainty in the hydrofacies distribution. Introducing more data to a poor model structure may reduce predictive variance, but does not reduce predictive bias. Hydraulic head observations alone cannot constrain the uncertainty of HETT, however an estimate of hyporheic exchange flux proves to be more effective at reducing this uncertainty. Figure: Approach for evaluating predictive model uncertainty. A conceptual model is first developed from the field investigations. A complex model (`virtual reality') is then developed based on that conceptual model

  12. Uncertainty of measurement for large product verification: evaluation of large aero gas turbine engine datums

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muelaner, J E; Wang, Z; Keogh, P S; Brownell, J; Fisher, D

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the uncertainty of dimensional measurements for large products such as aircraft, spacecraft and wind turbines is fundamental to improving efficiency in these products. Much work has been done to ascertain the uncertainty associated with the main types of instruments used, based on laser tracking and photogrammetry, and the propagation of this uncertainty through networked measurements. Unfortunately this is not sufficient to understand the combined uncertainty of industrial measurements, which include secondary tooling and datum structures used to locate the coordinate frame. This paper presents for the first time a complete evaluation of the uncertainty of large scale industrial measurement processes. Generic analysis and design rules are proven through uncertainty evaluation and optimization for the measurement of a large aero gas turbine engine. This shows how the instrument uncertainty can be considered to be negligible. Before optimization the dominant source of uncertainty was the tooling design, after optimization the dominant source was thermal expansion of the engine; meaning that no further improvement can be made without measurement in a temperature controlled environment. These results will have a significant impact on the ability of aircraft and wind turbines to improve efficiency and therefore reduce carbon emissions, as well as the improved reliability of these products. (paper)

  13. Global sensitivity analysis for identifying important parameters of nitrogen nitrification and denitrification under model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhuowei; Shi, Liangsheng; Ye, Ming; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong

    2018-06-01

    Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. By using a new variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters for nitrogen reactive transport with simultaneous consideration of these three uncertainties. A combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture creates a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models describing the effect of soil temperature and moisture content are used to evaluate the reduction functions used for calculating actual reaction rates. The results show that for nitrogen reactive transport problem, parameter importance varies substantially among different models and scenarios. Denitrification and nitrification process is sensitive to soil moisture content status rather than to the moisture function parameter. Nitrification process becomes more important at low moisture content and low temperature. However, the changing importance of nitrification activity with respect to temperature change highly relies on the selected model. Model-averaging is suggested to assess the nitrification (or denitrification) contribution by reducing the possible model error. Despite the introduction of biochemical heterogeneity or not, fairly consistent parameter importance rank is obtained in this study: optimal denitrification rate (Kden) is the most important parameter; reference temperature (Tr) is more important than temperature coefficient (Q10); empirical constant in moisture response function (m) is the least important one. Vertical distribution of soil moisture but not temperature plays predominant role controlling nitrogen reaction. This study provides insight into the nitrogen reactive transport modeling and demonstrates an effective strategy of selecting the important parameters when future temperature and soil moisture carry uncertainties or when modelers face with multiple ways of establishing nitrogen

  14. Report on the uncertainty methods study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-06-01

    The Uncertainty Methods Study (UMS) Group, following a mandate from CSNI, has compared five methods for calculating the uncertainty in the predictions of advanced 'best estimate' thermal-hydraulic codes: the Pisa method (based on extrapolation from integral experiments) and four methods identifying and combining input uncertainties. Three of these, the GRS, IPSN and ENUSA methods, use subjective probability distributions, and one, the AEAT method, performs a bounding analysis. Each method has been used to calculate the uncertainty in specified parameters for the LSTF SB-CL-18 5% cold leg small break LOCA experiment in the ROSA-IV Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF). The uncertainty analysis was conducted essentially blind and the participants did not use experimental measurements from the test as input apart from initial and boundary conditions. Participants calculated uncertainty ranges for experimental parameters including pressurizer pressure, primary circuit inventory and clad temperature (at a specified position) as functions of time

  15. Towards a different attitude to uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guy Pe'er

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The ecological literature deals with uncertainty primarily from the perspective of how to reduce it to acceptable levels. However, the current rapid and ubiquitous environmental changes, as well as anticipated rates of change, pose novel conditions and complex dynamics due to which many sources of uncertainty are difficult or even impossible to reduce. These include both uncertainty in knowledge (epistemic uncertainty and societal responses to it. Under these conditions, an increasing number of studies ask how one can deal with uncertainty as it is. Here, we explore the question how to adopt an overall alternative attitude to uncertainty, which accepts or even embraces it. First, we show that seeking to reduce uncertainty may be counterproductive under some circumstances. It may yield overconfidence, ignoring early warning signs, policy- and societal stagnation, or irresponsible behaviour if personal certainty is offered by externalization of environmental costs. We then demonstrate that uncertainty can have positive impacts by driving improvements in knowledge, promoting cautious action, contributing to keeping societies flexible and adaptable, enhancing awareness, support and involvement of the public in nature conservation, and enhancing cooperation and communication. We discuss the risks of employing a certainty paradigm on uncertain knowledge, the potential benefits of adopting an alternative attitude to uncertainty, and the need to implement such an attitude across scales – from adaptive management at the local scale, to the evolving Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES at the global level.

  16. An advanced joint inversion system for CO2 storage modeling with large date sets for characterization and real-time monitoring-enhancing storage performance and reducing failure risks under uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kitanidis, Peter [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

    2016-04-30

    As large-scale, commercial storage projects become operational, the problem of utilizing information from diverse sources becomes more critically important. In this project, we developed, tested, and applied an advanced joint data inversion system for CO2 storage modeling with large data sets for use in site characterization and real-time monitoring. Emphasis was on the development of advanced and efficient computational algorithms for joint inversion of hydro-geophysical data, coupled with state-of-the-art forward process simulations. The developed system consists of (1) inversion tools using characterization data, such as 3D seismic survey (amplitude images), borehole log and core data, as well as hydraulic, tracer and thermal tests before CO2 injection, (2) joint inversion tools for updating the geologic model with the distribution of rock properties, thus reducing uncertainty, using hydro-geophysical monitoring data, and (3) highly efficient algorithms for directly solving the dense or sparse linear algebra systems derived from the joint inversion. The system combines methods from stochastic analysis, fast linear algebra, and high performance computing. The developed joint inversion tools have been tested through synthetic CO2 storage examples.

  17. Chemical kinetic model uncertainty minimization through laminar flame speed measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Okjoo; Veloo, Peter S.; Sheen, David A.; Tao, Yujie; Egolfopoulos, Fokion N.; Wang, Hai

    2016-01-01

    Laminar flame speed measurements were carried for mixture of air with eight C3-4 hydrocarbons (propene, propane, 1,3-butadiene, 1-butene, 2-butene, iso-butene, n-butane, and iso-butane) at the room temperature and ambient pressure. Along with C1-2 hydrocarbon data reported in a recent study, the entire dataset was used to demonstrate how laminar flame speed data can be utilized to explore and minimize the uncertainties in a reaction model for foundation fuels. The USC Mech II kinetic model was chosen as a case study. The method of uncertainty minimization using polynomial chaos expansions (MUM-PCE) (D.A. Sheen and H. Wang, Combust. Flame 2011, 158, 2358–2374) was employed to constrain the model uncertainty for laminar flame speed predictions. Results demonstrate that a reaction model constrained only by the laminar flame speed values of methane/air flames notably reduces the uncertainty in the predictions of the laminar flame speeds of C3 and C4 alkanes, because the key chemical pathways of all of these flames are similar to each other. The uncertainty in model predictions for flames of unsaturated C3-4 hydrocarbons remain significant without considering fuel specific laminar flames speeds in the constraining target data set, because the secondary rate controlling reaction steps are different from those in the saturated alkanes. It is shown that the constraints provided by the laminar flame speeds of the foundation fuels could reduce notably the uncertainties in the predictions of laminar flame speeds of C4 alcohol/air mixtures. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that an accurate prediction of the laminar flame speed of a particular C4 alcohol/air mixture is better achieved through measurements for key molecular intermediates formed during the pyrolysis and oxidation of the parent fuel. PMID:27890938

  18. Facile Quantification and Identification Techniques for Reducing Gases over a Wide Concentration Range Using a MOS Sensor in Temperature-Cycled Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Schultealbert

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Dedicated methods for quantification and identification of reducing gases based on model-based temperature-cycled operation (TCO using a single commercial MOS gas sensor are presented. During high temperature phases the sensor surface is highly oxidized, yielding a significant sensitivity increase after switching to lower temperatures (differential surface reduction, DSR. For low concentrations, the slope of the logarithmic conductance during this low-temperature phase is evaluated and can directly be used for quantification. For higher concentrations, the time constant for reaching a stable conductance during the same low-temperature phase is evaluated. Both signals represent the reaction rate of the reducing gas on the strongly oxidized surface at this low temperature and provide a linear calibration curve, which is exceptional for MOS sensors. By determining these reaction rates on different low-temperature plateaus and applying pattern recognition, the resulting footprint can be used for identification of different gases. All methods are tested over a wide concentration range from 10 ppb to 100 ppm (4 orders of magnitude for four different reducing gases (CO, H2, ammonia and benzene using randomized gas exposures.

  19. Facile Quantification and Identification Techniques for Reducing Gases over a Wide Concentration Range Using a MOS Sensor in Temperature-Cycled Operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultealbert, Caroline; Baur, Tobias; Schütze, Andreas; Sauerwald, Tilman

    2018-03-01

    Dedicated methods for quantification and identification of reducing gases based on model-based temperature-cycled operation (TCO) using a single commercial MOS gas sensor are presented. During high temperature phases the sensor surface is highly oxidized, yielding a significant sensitivity increase after switching to lower temperatures (differential surface reduction, DSR). For low concentrations, the slope of the logarithmic conductance during this low-temperature phase is evaluated and can directly be used for quantification. For higher concentrations, the time constant for reaching a stable conductance during the same low-temperature phase is evaluated. Both signals represent the reaction rate of the reducing gas on the strongly oxidized surface at this low temperature and provide a linear calibration curve, which is exceptional for MOS sensors. By determining these reaction rates on different low-temperature plateaus and applying pattern recognition, the resulting footprint can be used for identification of different gases. All methods are tested over a wide concentration range from 10 ppb to 100 ppm (4 orders of magnitude) for four different reducing gases (CO, H₂, ammonia and benzene) using randomized gas exposures.

  20. Accounting for downscaling and model uncertainty in fine-resolution seasonal climate projections over the Columbia River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun

    2018-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on natural systems as well as various socio-economic aspects of human life. This has urged scientific communities to improve the understanding of future climate and reduce the uncertainties associated with projections. In the present study, ten statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs at 1/16th deg. spatial resolution from two different downscaling procedures are utilized over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) to assess the changes in climate variables and characterize the associated uncertainties. Three climate variables, i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature, are studied for the historical period of 1970-2000 as well as future period of 2010-2099, simulated with representative concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is employed to reduce the model uncertainty and develop a probabilistic projection for each variable in each scenario. Historical comparison of long-term attributes of GCMs and observation suggests a more accurate representation for BMA than individual models. Furthermore, BMA projections are used to investigate future seasonal to annual changes of climate variables. Projections indicate significant increase in annual precipitation and temperature, with varied degree of change across different sub-basins of CRB. We then characterized uncertainty of future projections for each season over CRB. Results reveal that model uncertainty is the main source of uncertainty, among others. However, downscaling uncertainty considerably contributes to the total uncertainty of future projections, especially in summer. On the contrary, downscaling uncertainty appears to be higher than scenario uncertainty for precipitation.

  1. Uncertainty in solid precipitation and snow depth prediction for Siberia using the Noah and Noah-MP land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Kazuyoshi; Zupanski, Milija

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we investigate the uncertainties associated with land surface processes in an ensemble predication context. Specifically, we compare the uncertainties produced by a coupled atmosphere-land modeling system with two different land surface models, the Noah- MP land surface model (LSM) and the Noah LSM, by using the Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter (MLEF) data assimilation system as a platform for ensemble prediction. We carried out 24-hour prediction simulations in Siberia with 32 ensemble members beginning at 00:00 UTC on 5 March 2013. We then compared the model prediction uncertainty of snow depth and solid precipitation with observation-based research products and evaluated the standard deviation of the ensemble spread. The prediction skill and ensemble spread exhibited high positive correlation for both LSMs, indicating a realistic uncertainty estimation. The inclusion of a multiple snowlayer model in the Noah-MP LSM was beneficial for reducing the uncertainties of snow depth and snow depth change compared to the Noah LSM, but the uncertainty in daily solid precipitation showed minimal difference between the two LSMs. The impact of LSM choice in reducing temperature uncertainty was limited to surface layers of the atmosphere. In summary, we found that the more sophisticated Noah-MP LSM reduces uncertainties associated with land surface processes compared to the Noah LSM. Thus, using prediction models with improved skill implies improved predictability and greater certainty of prediction.

  2. Incorporating outcome uncertainty and prior outcome beliefs in stated preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Hanley, Nick

    2015-01-01

    Stated preference studies tell respondents that policies create environmental changes with varying levels of uncertainty. However, respondents may include their own a priori assessments of uncertainty when making choices among policy options. Using a choice experiment eliciting respondents......’ preferences for conservation policies under climate change, we find that higher outcome uncertainty reduces utility. When accounting for endogeneity, we find that prior beliefs play a significant role in this cost of uncertainty. Thus, merely stating “objective” levels of outcome uncertainty...

  3. Observation of reduced phase transition temperature in N-doped thermochromic film of monoclinic VO{sub 2}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Meinan; Xiong, Mo [State Key Laboratory of Silicate Materials for Architectures, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070 (China); Li, Neng, E-mail: lineng@whut.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Silicate Materials for Architectures, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070 (China); Liu, Baoshun; Wang, Shuo [State Key Laboratory of Silicate Materials for Architectures, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070 (China); Ching, Wai-Yim [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas City, MO 64110 (United States); Zhao, Xiujian, E-mail: opluse@whut.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Silicate Materials for Architectures, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070 (China)

    2017-07-15

    Highlights: • N-doped VO{sub 2}(M1) thin films have been synthesized by annealing in NH{sub 3} atmosphere. • The phase purity, microstructure and optical property of VO{sub 2} thin film can be regulated by NH{sub 3} concentration. • First-principles calculations have been carried out to study the mechanism of N-doping on energy band structures of VO{sub 2}(M1). • The energy band gaps of VO{sub 2}(M1) are tuned by substitution N-doping or interstitial N-doping. - Abstract: Research on monoclinic (M1) phase of VO{sub 2} has attracted a great of interest for smart coating applications due to its exceptional thermochromic property. Herein, we report the results using a novel approach to synthesize N-doped VO{sub 2}(M1) thin films with high purity by heat treatment in NH{sub 3} atmosphere. The N dopant in the film can be regulated by varying NH{sub 3} concentration during the annealing process. We find that the N atoms are located at the interstitial sites or substitute oxygen atoms, and the V-N bonds in the VO{sub 2} thin films increase with NH{sub 3} concentration. The metal to insulator transition (MIT) temperature (τ{sub c,h}) of the VO{sub 2} thin film is effectively reduced from 80.0 to 62.9 °C, while the solar modulation efficiency (ΔT{sub sol}) and the modulation efficiency at 2000 nm (ΔT{sub 2000nm}) are 7.36% and 55.6% respectively. The band gap of N-doped VO{sub 2} thin films related to MIT (E{sub g1}) is estimated to be as low as 0.18–0.25 eV whereas the band gap associated with the visible transparency (E{sub g2}) is about 1.50–1.58 eV. Based on the highly accurate first-principles calculations, the E{sub g1} of VO{sub 2} (M1) is reduced after substituted or interstitial N-doping, while the E{sub g2} alters with the mode of N-doping, which is excellent agreement with experimental measurement.

  4. A framework to quantify uncertainties of seafloor backscatter from swath mapping echosounders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Mashkoor; Lurton, Xavier; Mayer, Larry

    2018-06-01

    Multibeam echosounders (MBES) have become a widely used acoustic remote sensing tool to map and study the seafloor, providing co-located bathymetry and seafloor backscatter. Although the uncertainty associated with MBES-derived bathymetric data has been studied extensively, the question of backscatter uncertainty has been addressed only minimally and hinders the quantitative use of MBES seafloor backscatter. This paper explores approaches to identifying uncertainty sources associated with MBES-derived backscatter measurements. The major sources of uncertainty are catalogued and the magnitudes of their relative contributions to the backscatter uncertainty budget are evaluated. These major uncertainty sources include seafloor insonified area (1-3 dB), absorption coefficient (up to > 6 dB), random fluctuations in echo level (5.5 dB for a Rayleigh distribution), and sonar calibration (device dependent). The magnitudes of these uncertainty sources vary based on how these effects are compensated for during data acquisition and processing. Various cases (no compensation, partial compensation and full compensation) for seafloor insonified area, transmission losses and random fluctuations were modeled to estimate their uncertainties in different scenarios. Uncertainty related to the seafloor insonified area can be reduced significantly by accounting for seafloor slope during backscatter processing while transmission losses can be constrained by collecting full water column absorption coefficient profiles (temperature and salinity profiles). To reduce random fluctuations to below 1 dB, at least 20 samples are recommended to be used while computing mean values. The estimation of uncertainty in backscatter measurements is constrained by the fact that not all instrumental components are characterized and documented sufficiently for commercially available MBES. Further involvement from manufacturers in providing this essential information is critically required.

  5. Instrument uncertainty predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1991-07-01

    The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty

  6. ZnO Nanoparticles/Reduced Graphene Oxide Bilayer Thin Films for Improved NH3-Sensing Performances at Room Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tai, Huiling; Yuan, Zhen; Zheng, Weijian; Ye, Zongbiao; Liu, Chunhua; Du, Xiaosong

    2016-03-01

    ZnO nanoparticles and graphene oxide (GO) thin film were deposited on gold interdigital electrodes (IDEs) in sequence via simple spraying process, which was further restored to ZnO/reduced graphene oxide (rGO) bilayer thin film by the thermal reduction treatment and employed for ammonia (NH3) detection at room temperature. rGO was identified by UV-vis absorption spectra and X-ray photoelectron spectroscope (XPS) analyses, and the adhesion between ZnO nanoparticles and rGO nanosheets might also be formed. The NH3-sensing performances of pure rGO film and ZnO/rGO bilayer films with different sprayed GO amounts were compared. The results showed that ZnO/rGO film sensors exhibited enhanced response properties, and the optimal GO amount of 1.5 ml was achieved. Furthermore, the optimal ZnO/rGO film sensor showed an excellent reversibility and fast response/recovery rate within the detection range of 10-50 ppm. Meanwhile, the sensor also displayed good repeatability and selectivity to NH3. However, the interference of water molecules on the prepared sensor is non-ignorable; some techniques should be researched to eliminate the effect of moisture in the further work. The remarkably enhanced NH3-sensing characteristics were speculated to be attributed to both the supporting role of ZnO nanoparticles film and accumulation heterojunction at the interface between ZnO and rGO. Thus, the proposed ZnO/rGO bilayer thin film sensor might give a promise for high-performance NH3-sensing applications.

  7. Experimental investigation on the effect of ultrasonic waves on reducing asphaltene deposition and improving oil recovery under temperature control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaei Dehshibi, Reza; Mohebbi, Ali; Riazi, Masoud; Niakousari, Mehrdad

    2018-07-01

    A well-known complication in the oil reservoir during oil production is asphaltene deposition in and around the production wellbore. Deposition of asphaltene around the production wellbore may cause a significant pressure drop and in turn loss of efficiency in the production process. Various mechanical and chemical methods have been employed in order to reduce asphaltene formation or to eliminate the precipitate. A novel technique which presented a great potential for prevention or elimination of asphaltene is spreading out the high energy ultrasound wave within the oil reservoir. In this study, in a glass micro-model, asphaltene precipitation was first simulated in a transparent porous medium and its removal by application of high energy ultrasound wave was then investigated. To simulate asphaltene precipitation, the micro-model was first saturated with oil and then a normal-pentane was injected. This was followed by flooding the porous media with brine while propagating ultrasound waves (30 kHz and 100 W) to eliminate asphaltene precipitation. The experiment setup was equipped with a temperature controller. The results indicate a significant reduction in asphaltene precipitation in the oil reservoir may be achieved by application of ultrasound energy. Asphaltene particle deposition has been solved reversibly in the oil layer of porous medium and with the oil layering mechanism, the rate of oil production has been increased. In some spots, water/oil emulsion has been formed because of the ultrasonic vibration on the wall. Both the crude and synthetic oils were examined. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. New aspects about reduced LCF-life time of spherical ductile cast iron due to dynamic strain aging at intermediate temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mouri, Hayato; Wunderlich, Wilfried; Hayashi, Morihito

    2009-01-01

    Spherical ductile cast iron (FCD400) is widely used as container material in nuclear energy processing line due to its superior mechanical properties and low price. Fatigue properties in low cycle fatigue (LCF) can be described well by the Manson-Coffin-Basquin's rule. However, at intermediate temperature range between 453 and 723 K the elongation-temperature-diagram shows a significantly 20-10% reduced elongation and an increase in yield stress in tensile test experiments. These non-linear deviations and the phenomenon of less ductility at intermediate temperatures are known for a long time [K. Chijiiwa, M. Hayashi, Mechanical properties of ductile cast iron at temperature in the region of room temperature to liquid, Imono 51 (7) (2004) 395-400]. But the following explanation is presented for the first time. In the same temperature range as the reduced fatigue life time dynamic strain ageing (DSA) also known as Portevin-le-Chartelier effect with the formation of visible serrations occurs. Both phenomena are explained by interaction effects between carbon diffusion and dislocation velocity which have at this temperature the same order of magnitude. However, this phenomenon shows interesting behavior at intermediate temperature range. During the low cycle fatigue test, DSA phenomenon disappeared, but mechanical properties show clear evidence of DSA phenomenon. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to study the correlation of DSA occurrence, LCF and mechanical properties.

  9. Section summary: Uncertainty and design considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen Hagen

    2013-01-01

    Well planned sampling designs and robust approaches to estimating uncertainty are critical components of forest monitoring. The importance of uncertainty estimation increases as deforestation and degradation issues become more closely tied to financing incentives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the forest sector. Investors like to know risk and risk is tightly...

  10. Scientific uncertainties and climate risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petit, M.

    2005-01-01

    Human activities have induced a significant change in the Earth's atmospheric composition and, most likely, this trend will increase throughout the coming decades. During the last decades, the mean temperature has actually increased by the expected amount. Moreover, the geographical distribution of the warming, and day-to-night temperature variation have evolved as predicted. The magnitude of those changes is relatively small for the time being, but is expected to increase alarmingly during the coming decades. Greenhouse warming is a representative example of the problems of sustainable development: long-term risks can be estimated on a rational basis from scientific laws alone, but the non-specialist is generally not prepared to understand the steps required. However, even the non-specialist has obviously the right to decide about his way of life and the inheritance that he would like to leave for his children, but it is preferable that he is fully informed before making his decisions. Dialog, mutual understanding and confidence must prevail between Science and Society to avoid irrational actions. Controversy among experts is quite frequent. In the case of greenhouse warming, a commendable collective expertise has drastically reduced possible confusion. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was created jointly by the World Meteorology Organization (WMO) and the UN Program for the Environment (UNEP). Its reports evaluate the state of knowledge on past and future global climate changes, their impact, and the possibility of controlling anthropogenic emissions. The main targeted readers are, nevertheless, non-specialists, who should be made aware of results deduced from approaches that they may not be able to follow step by step. Moreover, these results, in particular, future projections, are, and will remain, subject to some uncertainty, which a fair description of the state of knowledge must include. Many misunderstandings between writers and readers can

  11. Simulation codes and the impact of validation/uncertainty requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sills, H.E.

    1995-01-01

    Several of the OECD/CSNI members have adapted a proposed methodology for code validation and uncertainty assessment. Although the validation process adapted by members has a high degree of commonality, the uncertainty assessment processes selected are more variable, ranaing from subjective to formal. This paper describes the validation and uncertainty assessment process, the sources of uncertainty, methods of reducing uncertainty, and methods of assessing uncertainty.Examples are presented from the Ontario Hydro application of the validation methodology and uncertainty assessment to the system thermal hydraulics discipline and the TUF (1) system thermal hydraulics code. (author)

  12. The effect of reduced oxygen content powder on the impact toughness of 316 steel powder joined to 316 steel by low temperature HIP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lind, Anders; Sundstroem, Johan

    2004-11-01

    During the manufacture of the blanket modules, 316L steel powder is simultaneously consolidated and joined to tubes and blocks of 316L materials by Hot Isostatic Pressing (HIP). The high processing temperature can detrimentally increase the grain size of the water cooling tubes in the structure and the blocks reducing their strength. It is well known that surface oxides on the powder particles negatively influence the impact toughness of material and joints consolidated in this way. By increasing the consolidation temperature the metallurgical bonding is improved, due to a redistribution of oxygen within the oxide layer towards more discrete oxide particles. In order to get acceptable mechanical properties of materials produced at a low HIP temperature the oxygen content on the powder surfaces needs to be reduced. The aim of this new techniques to reduce the oxygen content of the metal powder. The influence on Charpy impact energy and tensile strength were demonstrated

  13. Uncertainty analysis guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andres, T.H.

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  14. Uncertainty analysis guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  15. Uncertainty and Cognitive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisal eMushtaq

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A growing trend of neuroimaging, behavioural and computational research has investigated the topic of outcome uncertainty in decision-making. Although evidence to date indicates that humans are very effective in learning to adapt to uncertain situations, the nature of the specific cognitive processes involved in the adaptation to uncertainty are still a matter of debate. In this article, we reviewed evidence suggesting that cognitive control processes are at the heart of uncertainty in decision-making contexts. Available evidence suggests that: (1 There is a strong conceptual overlap between the constructs of uncertainty and cognitive control; (2 There is a remarkable overlap between the neural networks associated with uncertainty and the brain networks subserving cognitive control; (3 The perception and estimation of uncertainty might play a key role in monitoring processes and the evaluation of the need for control; (4 Potential interactions between uncertainty and cognitive control might play a significant role in several affective disorders.

  16. Germination response of Hylocereus setaceus (Salm-Dyck ex DC: ) Ralf Bauer (Cactaceae) seeds to temperature and reduced water potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simão, E; Takaki, M; Cardoso, V J M

    2010-02-01

    The germination response of Hylocereus setaceus seeds to isothermic incubation at different water potentials was analysed by using the thermal time and hydrotime models, aiming to describe some germination parameters of the population and to test the validity of the models to describe the response of the seeds to temperature and water potential. Hylocereus setaceus seeds germinated relatively well in a wide range of temperatures and the germination was rate limited from 11 to 20 degrees C interval and beyond 30 degrees C until 40 degrees C, in which the germination rate respectively shifts positively and negatively with temperature. The minimum or base temperature (T(b)) for the germination of H. setaceus was 7 degrees C, and the ceiling temperature varied nearly from 43.5 to 59 degrees C depending on the percent fraction, with median set on 49.8 degrees C. The number of degrees day necessary for 50% of the seeds to germinate in the infra-optimum temperature range was 39.3 degrees C day, whereas at the supra-optimum interval the value of theta = 77 was assumed to be constant throughout. Germination was sensitive to decreasing values of psi in the medium, and both the germinability and the germination rate shift negatively with the reduction of psi, but the rate of reduction changed with temperature. The values of base water potential (psi(b)) shift to zero with increasing temperatures and such variation reflects in the relatively greater effect of low psi on germination in supra optimum range of T. In general, the model described better the germination time courses at lower than at higher water potentials. The analysis also suggest that Tb may not be independent of psi and that psi(b(g)) may change as a function of temperature at the infra-otimum temperature range.

  17. Oral administration of a medium containing both D-aspartate-producing live bacteria and D-aspartate reduces rectal temperature in chicks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Do, P H; Tran, P V; Bahry, M A; Yang, H; Han, G; Tsuchiya, A; Asami, Y; Furuse, M; Chowdhury, V S

    2017-10-01

    1. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects on the rectal temperature of young chicks of the oral administration of a medium that contained both live bacteria that produce D-aspartate (D-Asp) and D-Asp. 2. In Experiment 1, chicks were subjected to chronic oral administration of either the medium (containing live bacteria and 2.46 μmol D-Asp) or water from 7 to 14 d of age. Plasma-free amino acids as well as mitochondrial biogenic gene expression in the breast muscle were analysed. In Experiment 2, 7-d-old chicks were subjected to acute oral administration of the above medium or of an equimolar amount of D-Asp to examine their effect on changes in rectal temperature. In Experiment 3, after 1 week of chronic oral administration of the medium, 14-d-old chicks were exposed to either high ambient temperature (HT; 40 ± 1°C, 3 h) or control thermoneutral temperature (CT; 30 ± 1°C, 3 h) to monitor the changes in rectal temperature. 3. Chronic, but not acute, oral administration of the medium significantly reduced rectal temperature in chicks, and a chronic effect also appeared under HT conditions. 4. Chronic oral administration of the medium significantly reduced the mRNA abundance of the avian uncoupling protein (avUCP) in the breast muscle, but led to a significant increase in avian adenine nucleotide translocator (avANT) mRNA in the same muscle. 5. (a) These results indicate that the medium can reduce body temperature through the decline in avUCP mRNA expression in the breast muscle that may be involved in reduced mitochondrial proton leaks and heat production. (b) The increase in avANT further suggests a possible enhancement of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) synthesis.

  18. Critical loads - assessment of uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barkman, A.

    1998-10-01

    uncertainties in CL and EX estimates were found to be efficiently mitigated by reducing data uncertainty in the critical limit of the chemical criteria - the BC/Al ratio. The distributed CL and EX assessment on local level in Sweden was found to be efficiently improved by enhancing the resolution of the underlying vegetation map 68 refs, 15 figs, 3 tabs

  19. Results from the Application of Uncertainty Methods in the CSNI Uncertainty Methods Study (UMS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaeser, H.

    2008-01-01

    Within licensing procedures there is the incentive to replace the conservative requirements for code application by a - best estimate - concept supplemented by an uncertainty analysis to account for predictive uncertainties of code results. Methods have been developed to quantify these uncertainties. The Uncertainty Methods Study (UMS) Group, following a mandate from CSNI, has compared five methods for calculating the uncertainty in the predictions of advanced -best estimate- thermal-hydraulic codes. Most of the methods identify and combine input uncertainties. The major differences between the predictions of the methods came from the choice of uncertain parameters and the quantification of the input uncertainties, i.e. the wideness of the uncertainty ranges. Therefore, suitable experimental and analytical information has to be selected to specify these uncertainty ranges or distributions. After the closure of the Uncertainty Method Study (UMS) and after the report was issued comparison calculations of experiment LSTF-SB-CL-18 were performed by University of Pisa using different versions of the RELAP 5 code. It turned out that the version used by two of the participants calculated a 170 K higher peak clad temperature compared with other versions using the same input deck. This may contribute to the differences of the upper limit of the uncertainty ranges.

  20. Uncertainty analysis for hot channel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panka, I.; Kereszturi, A.

    2006-01-01

    The fulfillment of the safety analysis acceptance criteria is usually evaluated by separate hot channel calculations using the results of neutronic or/and thermo hydraulic system calculations. In case of an ATWS event (inadvertent withdrawal of control assembly), according to the analysis, a number of fuel rods are experiencing DNB for a longer time and must be regarded as failed. Their number must be determined for a further evaluation of the radiological consequences. In the deterministic approach, the global power history must be multiplied by different hot channel factors (kx) taking into account the radial power peaking factors for each fuel pin. If DNB occurs it is necessary to perform a few number of hot channel calculations to determine the limiting kx leading just to DNB and fuel failure (the conservative DNBR limit is 1.33). Knowing the pin power distribution from the core design calculation, the number of failed fuel pins can be calculated. The above procedure can be performed by conservative assumptions (e.g. conservative input parameters in the hot channel calculations), as well. In case of hot channel uncertainty analysis, the relevant input parameters (k x, mass flow, inlet temperature of the coolant, pin average burnup, initial gap size, selection of power history influencing the gap conductance value) of hot channel calculations and the DNBR limit are varied considering the respective uncertainties. An uncertainty analysis methodology was elaborated combining the response surface method with the one sided tolerance limit method of Wilks. The results of deterministic and uncertainty hot channel calculations are compared regarding to the number of failed fuel rods, max. temperature of the clad surface and max. temperature of the fuel (Authors)

  1. The effect of reduced oxygen content powder on the impact toughness of 316 steel powder joined to 316 steel by low temperature HIP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lind, Anders; Sundstroem, Johan; Peacock, Alan

    2005-01-01

    During the manufacture of the blanket modules, 316L steel powder is simultaneously consolidated and joined to tubes and blocks of 316L materials by hot isostatic pressing (HIP). The high processing temperature can detrimentally increase the grain size of the water-cooling tubes in the structure and the blocks reducing their strength. It is well known [L. Arnberg, A. Karlsson, Influence of powder surface oxidation on some properties of a HIPed martensitic chromium steel, Int. J. Powder Metall. 24 (2) (1988) 107-112] that surface oxides on the powder particles negatively influence the impact toughness of material and joints consolidated in this way. At a high HIP temperature, the oxides are at least partly transformed, thereby improving the impact toughness [L. Nyborg, I. Olefjord, Surface analysis of PM martensitic steel before and after consolidation. Part 2. Surface analysis of compacted material, Powder Metall. 31 (1) (1988) 40-44]. In order to get acceptable mechanical properties of materials produced at a low HIP temperature, the oxygen content on the powder surfaces needs to be reduced. In order to study the effect of reducing the powder oxygen content, it was reduced and the results were compared to those of specimens with ordinary oxygen content. The effect on the impact toughness and the tensile strength of low temperature (1020 and 1060 deg. C) HIP joints between steel blocks and powder consolidated material with low and ordinary oxygen content was measured

  2. Summary of existing uncertainty methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaeser, Horst

    2013-01-01

    A summary of existing and most used uncertainty methods is presented, and the main features are compared. One of these methods is the order statistics method based on Wilks' formula. It is applied in safety research as well as in licensing. This method has been first proposed by GRS for use in deterministic safety analysis, and is now used by many organisations world-wide. Its advantage is that the number of potential uncertain input and output parameters is not limited to a small number. Such a limitation was necessary for the first demonstration of the Code Scaling Applicability Uncertainty Method (CSAU) by the United States Regulatory Commission (USNRC). They did not apply Wilks' formula in their statistical method propagating input uncertainties to obtain the uncertainty of a single output variable, like peak cladding temperature. A Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) was set up in order to limit the number of uncertain input parameters, and consequently, the number of calculations to be performed. Another purpose of such a PIRT process is to identify the most important physical phenomena which a computer code should be suitable to calculate. The validation of the code should be focused on the identified phenomena. Response surfaces are used in some applications replacing the computer code for performing a high number of calculations. The second well known uncertainty method is the Uncertainty Methodology Based on Accuracy Extrapolation (UMAE) and the follow-up method 'Code with the Capability of Internal Assessment of Uncertainty (CIAU)' developed by the University Pisa. Unlike the statistical approaches, the CIAU does compare experimental data with calculation results. It does not consider uncertain input parameters. Therefore, the CIAU is highly dependent on the experimental database. The accuracy gained from the comparison between experimental data and calculated results are extrapolated to obtain the uncertainty of the system code predictions

  3. DS02 uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaul, Dean C.; Egbert, Stephen D.; Woolson, William A.

    2005-01-01

    In order to avoid the pitfalls that so discredited DS86 and its uncertainty estimates, and to provide DS02 uncertainties that are both defensible and credible, this report not only presents the ensemble uncertainties assembled from uncertainties in individual computational elements and radiation dose components but also describes how these relate to comparisons between observed and computed quantities at critical intervals in the computational process. These comparisons include those between observed and calculated radiation free-field components, where observations include thermal- and fast-neutron activation and gamma-ray thermoluminescence, which are relevant to the estimated systematic uncertainty for DS02. The comparisons also include those between calculated and observed survivor shielding, where the observations consist of biodosimetric measurements for individual survivors, which are relevant to the estimated random uncertainty for DS02. (J.P.N.)

  4. Model uncertainty and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

  5. Effects of reduction temperature on the optoelectronic properties of diodes based on n-type Si and reduced graphene oxide doped with a conductive polymer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Jian-Jhou; Lin, Yow-Jon; Ruan, Cheng-He; Lin, Jian-Huang

    2013-01-01

    The effect of reduction temperature on the optoelectronic properties of diodes based on n-type Si and reduced graphene oxide (RGO) doped with a conductive polymer [poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) doped with poly(4-styrenesulfonate) (PEDOT:PSS)] was examined in this study. It is found that conductivity of RGO-doped PEDOT:PSS films increases with increasing reduction temperature of graphene oxide (GO) sheets. The improvement of electrical conductivity is considered to mainly come from the carrier mobility enhancement. In addition, the ideality factor of n-type Si/RGO-doped PEDOT:PSS diodes decreases with increasing reduction temperature of GO sheets. The device-performance improvement originates from high-mobility hole transport combined with long-lifetime electron trapping in the RGO-doped PEDOT:PSS film. In addition, note that a suitable reduction temperature is an important issue for improving the device performance. (paper)

  6. The impact of temperature change on the activity and community composition of sulfate-reducing bacteria in arctic versus temperate marine sediments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robador, Alberto; Brüchert, Volker; Jørgensen, Bo Barker

    2009-01-01

    Arctic regions may be particularly sensitive to climate warming and, consequently, rates of carbon mineralization in warming marine sediment may also be affected. Using long-term (24 months) incubation experiments at 0°C, 10°C and 20°C, the temperature response of metabolic activity and community...... composition of sulfate-reducing bacteria were studied in the permanently cold sediment of north-western Svalbard (Arctic Ocean) and compared with a temperate habitat with seasonally varying temperature (German Bight, North Sea). Short-term 35S-sulfate tracer incubations in a temperature-gradient block...... (between -3.5°C and +40°C) were used to assess variations in sulfate reduction rates during the course of the experiment. Warming of arctic sediment resulted in a gradual increase of the temperature optima (Topt) for sulfate reduction suggesting a positive selection of psychrotolerant/mesophilic sulfate...

  7. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Kanal, LN

    1986-01-01

    How to deal with uncertainty is a subject of much controversy in Artificial Intelligence. This volume brings together a wide range of perspectives on uncertainty, many of the contributors being the principal proponents in the controversy.Some of the notable issues which emerge from these papers revolve around an interval-based calculus of uncertainty, the Dempster-Shafer Theory, and probability as the best numeric model for uncertainty. There remain strong dissenting opinions not only about probability but even about the utility of any numeric method in this context.

  8. Influence of matrices on electron temperature of laser micro-plasma in argon atmosphere at reduced pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Qinlin; Zhou Yulong; Zhang Bo; Zhang Qiulin; Zhang Jinping; Huai Sufang

    2007-01-01

    Laser micro-spectral analysis coupled with CCD spectrometer was used in this experiment. With Fe I 356.54 nm and Fe I 358.12 nm as analysis spectral lines, the micro-plasma temperature and its spatial distribution were investigated in different matrices, namely Mg, Al, Si, and steel alloy6-0. The electron temperature as a function of location in each matrix and the differences of that at the same location in different matrices were determined and an explanation was given. Finally, with Cu I 324.75 nm and Zn I 394.50 nm as analysis spectral lines, we have successfully used the calculated micro-plasma temperature to discuss the matrix effect. (authors)

  9. Effects of reducing temperatures on the hydrogen storage capacity of double-walled carbon nanotubes with Pd loading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheng, Qu; Wu, Huimin; Wexler, David; Liu, Huakun

    2014-06-01

    The effects of different temperatures on the hydrogen sorption characteristics of double-walled carbon nanotubes (DWCNTs) with palladium loading have been investigated. When we use different temperatures, the particle sizes and specific surface areas of the samples are different, which affects the hydrogen storage capacity of the DWCNTs. In this work, the amount of hydrogen storage capacity was determined (by AMC Gas Reactor Controller) to be 1.70, 1.85, 2.00, and 1.93 wt% for pristine DWCNTS and for 2%Pd/DWCNTs-300 degrees C, 2%Pd/DWCNTs-400 degrees C, and 2%Pd/DWCNTs-500 degrees C, respectively. We found that the hydrogen storage capacity can be enhanced by loading with 2% Pd nanoparticles and selecting a suitable temperature. Furthermore, the sorption can be attributed to the chemical reaction between atomic hydrogen and the dangling bonds of the DWCNTs.

  10. Uncertainty in hydrological signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida

    2015-04-01

    Information that summarises the hydrological behaviour or flow regime of a catchment is essential for comparing responses of different catchments to understand catchment organisation and similarity, and for many other modelling and water-management applications. Such information types derived as an index value from observed data are known as hydrological signatures, and can include descriptors of high flows (e.g. mean annual flood), low flows (e.g. mean annual low flow, recession shape), the flow variability, flow duration curve, and runoff ratio. Because the hydrological signatures are calculated from observed data such as rainfall and flow records, they are affected by uncertainty in those data. Subjective choices in the method used to calculate the signatures create a further source of uncertainty. Uncertainties in the signatures may affect our ability to compare different locations, to detect changes, or to compare future water resource management scenarios. The aim of this study was to contribute to the hydrological community's awareness and knowledge of data uncertainty in hydrological signatures, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment. We proposed a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrated it for a variety of commonly used signatures. The study was made for two data rich catchments, the 50 km2 Mahurangi catchment in New Zealand and the 135 km2 Brue catchment in the UK. For rainfall data the uncertainty sources included point measurement uncertainty, the number of gauges used in calculation of the catchment spatial average, and uncertainties relating to lack of quality control. For flow data the uncertainty sources included uncertainties in stage/discharge measurement and in the approximation of the true stage-discharge relation by a rating curve. The resulting uncertainties were compared across the different signatures and catchments, to quantify uncertainty

  11. Fuzzy Uncertainty Evaluation for Fault Tree Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ki Beom; Shim, Hyung Jin [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    This traditional probabilistic approach can calculate relatively accurate results. However it requires a long time because of repetitive computation due to the MC method. In addition, when informative data for statistical analysis are not sufficient or some events are mainly caused by human error, the probabilistic approach may not be possible because uncertainties of these events are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions. In order to reduce the computation time and quantify uncertainties of top events when basic events whose uncertainties are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions exist, the fuzzy uncertainty propagation based on fuzzy set theory can be applied. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy uncertainty propagation code and apply the fault tree of the core damage accident after the large loss of coolant accident (LLOCA). The fuzzy uncertainty propagation code is implemented and tested for the fault tree of the radiation release accident. We apply this code to the fault tree of the core damage accident after the LLOCA in three cases and compare the results with those computed by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation using the MC method. The results obtained by the fuzzy uncertainty propagation can be calculated in relatively short time, covering the results obtained by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation.

  12. Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

    2016-12-01

    A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. On treatment of uncertainty in system planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flage, R.; Aven, T.

    2009-01-01

    In system planning and operation considerable efforts and resources are spent to reduce uncertainties, as a part of project management, uncertainty management and safety management. The basic idea seems to be that uncertainties are purely negative and should be reduced. In this paper we challenge this way of thinking, using a common industry practice as an example. In accordance with this industry practice, three uncertainty interval categories are used: ±40% intervals for the feasibility phase, ±30% intervals for the concept development phase and ±20% intervals for the engineering phase. The problem is that such a regime could easily lead to a conservative management regime encouraging the use of existing methods and tools, as new activities and novel solutions and arrangements necessarily mean increased uncertainties. In the paper we suggest an alternative approach based on uncertainty and risk descriptions, but having no predefined uncertainty reduction structures. The approach makes use of risk assessments and economic optimisation tools such as the expected net present value, but acknowledges the need for broad risk management processes which extend beyond the analyses. Different concerns need to be balanced, including economic aspects, uncertainties and risk, and practicability

  14. [Influence of Uncertainty and Uncertainty Appraisal on Self-management in Hemodialysis Patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Hyung Suk; Lee, Chang Suk; Yang, Young Hee

    2015-04-01

    This study was done to examine the relation of uncertainty, uncertainty appraisal, and self-management in patients undergoing hemodialysis, and to identify factors influencing self-management. A convenience sample of 92 patients receiving hemodialysis was selected. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and medical records. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlations and multiple regression analysis with the SPSS/WIN 20.0 program. The participants showed a moderate level of uncertainty with the highest score being for ambiguity among the four uncertainty subdomains. Scores for uncertainty danger or opportunity appraisals were under the mid points. The participants were found to perform a high level of self-management such as diet control, management of arteriovenous fistula, exercise, medication, physical management, measurements of body weight and blood pressure, and social activity. The self-management of participants undergoing hemodialysis showed a significant relationship with uncertainty and uncertainty appraisal. The significant factors influencing self-management were uncertainty, uncertainty opportunity appraisal, hemodialysis duration, and having a spouse. These variables explained 32.8% of the variance in self-management. The results suggest that intervention programs to reduce the level of uncertainty and to increase the level of uncertainty opportunity appraisal among patients would improve the self-management of hemodialysis patients.

  15. Exploring the role of green and blue infrastructure in reducing temperature in Iskandar Malaysia using remote sensing approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanniah, K D; Sheikhi, A; Kang, C S

    2014-01-01

    Development of cities has led to various environmental problems as a consequence of non sustaibale town planning. One of the strategies to make cities a livable place and to achieve low levels of CO 2 emissions (low carbon cities or LCC) is the integration of the blue and green infrastructure into the development and planning of new urban areas. Iskandar Malaysia (IM) located in the southern part of Malaysia is a special economic zone that has major urban centres. The planning of these urban centres will incorporate LCC strategies to achieve a sustainable development. The role of green (plants) and blue bodies (lakes and rivers) in moderating temperature in IM have been investigated in the current study. A remotely sensed satellite imagery was used to calculate the vegetation density and land surface temperature (LST). The effect of lakes in cooling the surrounding temperature was also investigated. Results show that increasing vegetation density by 1% can decrease the LST by 0.09°C. As for the water bodies we found as the distance increased from the lake side the temperature also increased about 1.7°C and the reduction in air humidity is 9% as the distance increased to 100 meter away from the lake

  16. High-Pressure-High-Temperature Processing Reduces Maillard Reaction and Viscosity in Whey Protein-Sugar Solutions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Avila Ruiz, Geraldine; Xi, Bingyan; Minor, Marcel; Sala, Guido; Boekel, van Tiny; Fogliano, Vincenzo; Stieger, Markus

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the study was to determine the influence of pressure in high-pressure-high-temperature (HPHT) processing on Maillard reactions and protein aggregation of whey protein-sugar solutions. Solutions of whey protein isolate containing either glucose or trehalose at pH 6, 7, and 9 were

  17. Effectiveness of a temperature control system in home induction hobs to reduce acrylamide formation during pan frying

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guillen, S.; Oria, R.; Salvador, M. L.

    2017-01-01

    Three trials were conducted to determine the influence of the use of temperature control systems on physico-chemical characteristics and acrylamide formation in the domestic preparation of potatoes. French fries were pre-treated by soaking in water or acidified water, and then they were cooked...

  18. The Reduced Rank of Ensemble Kalman Filter to Estimate the Temperature of Non Isothermal Continue Stirred Tank Reactor

    OpenAIRE

    Erna Apriliani; Dieky Adzkiya; Arief Baihaqi

    2011-01-01

    Kalman filter is an algorithm to estimate the state variable of dynamical stochastic system. The square root ensemble Kalman filter is an modification of Kalman filter. The square root ensemble Kalman filter is proposed to keep the computational stability and reduce the computational time. In this paper we study the efficiency of the reduced rank ensemble Kalman filter. We apply this algorithm to the non isothermal continue stirred tank reactor problem. We decompose the covariance of the ense...

  19. Prototyping and Testing a New Volumetric Curvature Tool for Modeling Reservoir Compartments and Leakage Pathways in the Arbuckle Saline Aquifer: Reducing Uncertainty in CO2 Storage and Permanence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rush, Jason [Univ. of Kansas and Kansas Geological Survey, Lawrence, KS (United States); Holubnyak, Yevhen [Univ. of Kansas and Kansas Geological Survey, Lawrence, KS (United States); Watney, Willard [Univ. of Kansas and Kansas Geological Survey, Lawrence, KS (United States)

    2016-12-09

    This DOE-funded project evaluates the utility of seismic volumetric curvature (VC) for predicting stratal and structural architecture diagnostic of paleokarst reservoirs. Of special interest are applications geared toward carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). VC has been championed for identifying faults (offset <¼ λ) that cannot be imaged by conventional 3-D seismic attributes such as coherence. The objective of this research was to evaluate VC-techniques for reducing uncertainties in reservoir compartmentalization studies and seal risk assessments especially for saline aquifers. A 2000-ft horizontal lateral was purposefully drilled across VC-imaged lineaments—interpreted to record a fractured and a fault-bounded doline—to physically confirm their presence. The 15-mi² study area is located in southeastern Bemis-Shutts Field, which is situated along the crest of the Central Kansas Uplift (CKU) in Ellis County, Kansas. The uppermost Arbuckle (200+ ft) has extensive paleokarst including collapsed paleocaverns and dolines related to exceedingly prolonged pre-Simpson (Sauk–Tippecanoe) and/or pre-Pennsylvanian subaerial exposure. A lateral borehole was successfully drilled across the full extent (~1100 ft) of a VC-inferred paleokarst doline. Triple combo (GR-neutron/density-resistivity), full-wave sonic, and borehole micro-imager logs were successfully run to TD on drill-pipe. Results from the formation evaluation reveal breccias (e.g., crackle, mosaic, chaotic), fractures, faults, vugs (1-6"), and unaffected host strata consistent with the pre-spud interpretation. Well-rounded pebbles were also observed on the image log. VC-inferred lineaments coincide with 20–80-ft wide intervals of high GR values (100+ API), matrix-rich breccias, and faults. To further demonstrate their utility, VC attributes are integrated into a geocellular modeling workflow: 1) to constrain the structural model; 2) to generate facies probability grids, and; 3) to collocate

  20. Effect of temperature on sulphate reduction, growth rate and growth yield in five psychrophilic sulphate-reducing bacteria from Arctic sediments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knoblauch, C.; Jørgensen, BB

    1999-01-01

    and T(opt). For strains LSv21 and LSv514, however, growth yields were highest at the lowest temperatures, around 0 degrees C. The results indicate that psychrophilic sulphate-reducing bacteria are specially adapted to permanently low temperatures by high relative growth rates and high growth yields......Five psychrophilic sulphate-reducing bacteria (strains ASv26, LSv21, PSv29, LSv54 and LSv514) isolated from Arctic sediments were examined for their adaptation to permanently low temperatures, All strains grew at -1.8 degrees C, the freezing point of sea water, but their optimum temperature...... for growth (T(opt)) were 7 degrees C (PSv29), 10 degrees C (ASv26, LSv54) and 18 degrees C (LSv21, LSv514), Although T(opt) was considerably above the in situ temperatures of their habitats (-1.7 degrees C and 2.6 degrees C), relative growth rates were still high at 0 degrees C, accounting for 25...

  1. Religion in the face of uncertainty: an uncertainty-identity theory account of religiousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogg, Michael A; Adelman, Janice R; Blagg, Robert D

    2010-02-01

    The authors characterize religions as social groups and religiosity as the extent to which a person identifies with a religion, subscribes to its ideology or worldview, and conforms to its normative practices. They argue that religions have attributes that make them well suited to reduce feelings of self-uncertainty. According to uncertainty-identity theory, people are motivated to reduce feelings of uncertainty about or reflecting on self; and identification with groups, particularly highly entitative groups, is a very effective way to reduce uncertainty. All groups provide belief systems and normative prescriptions related to everyday life. However, religions also address the nature of existence, invoking sacred entities and associated rituals and ceremonies. They are entitative groups that provide a moral compass and rules for living that pervade a person's life, making them particularly attractive in times of uncertainty. The authors document data supporting their analysis and discuss conditions that transform religiosity into religious zealotry and extremism.

  2. Visualizing uncertainty : Towards a better understanding of weather forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toet, A.; Tak, S.; Erp, J.B.F. van

    2016-01-01

    Uncertainty visualizations are increasingly used in communications to the general public. A well-known example is the weather forecast. Rather than providing an exact temperature value, weather forecasts often show the range in which the temperature will lie. But uncertainty visualizations are also

  3. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size

  4. Uncertainty and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Berliner, L. Mark

    2003-01-01

    Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

  5. Uncertainty and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Depres, B.; Dossantos-Uzarralde, P.

    2009-01-01

    More than 150 researchers and engineers from universities and the industrial world met to discuss on the new methodologies developed around assessing uncertainty. About 20 papers were presented and the main topics were: methods to study the propagation of uncertainties, sensitivity analysis, nuclear data covariances or multi-parameter optimisation. This report gathers the contributions of CEA researchers and engineers

  6. Evaluation of Sources of Uncertainties in Solar Resource Measurement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Habte, Aron M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sengupta, Manajit [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-09-25

    This poster presents a high-level overview of sources of uncertainties in solar resource measurement, demonstrating the impact of various sources of uncertainties -- such as cosine response, thermal offset, spectral response, and others -- on the accuracy of data from several radiometers. The study provides insight on how to reduce the impact of some of the sources of uncertainties.

  7. Synergistic effect of helium and hydrogen for bubble swelling in reduced-activation ferritic/martensitic steel under sequential helium and hydrogen irradiation at different temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Wenhui [Key Laboratory of Artificial Micro- and Nano-structures of Ministry of Education, Hubei Nuclear Solid Physics Key Laboratory and School of Physics and Technology, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072 (China); Guo, Liping, E-mail: guolp@whu.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Artificial Micro- and Nano-structures of Ministry of Education, Hubei Nuclear Solid Physics Key Laboratory and School of Physics and Technology, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072 (China); Chen, Jihong; Luo, Fengfeng; Li, Tiecheng [Key Laboratory of Artificial Micro- and Nano-structures of Ministry of Education, Hubei Nuclear Solid Physics Key Laboratory and School of Physics and Technology, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072 (China); Ren, Yaoyao [Center for Electron Microscopy, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072 (China); Suo, Jinping; Yang, Feng [State Key Laboratory of Mould Technology, Institute of Materials Science and Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074 (China)

    2014-04-15

    Highlights: • Helium/hydrogen synergistic effect can increase irradiation swelling of RAFM steel. • Hydrogen can be trapped to the outer surface of helium bubbles. • Too large a helium bubble can become movable. • Point defects would become mobile and annihilate at dislocations at high temperature. • The peak swelling temperature for RAFM steel is 450 °C. - Abstract: In order to investigate the synergistic effect of helium and hydrogen on swelling in reduced-activation ferritic/martensitic (RAFM) steel, specimens were separately irradiated by single He{sup +} beam and sequential He{sup +} and H{sup +} beams at different temperatures from 250 to 650 °C. Transmission electron microscope observation showed that implantation of hydrogen into the specimens pre-irradiated by helium can result in obvious enhancement of bubble size and swelling rate which can be regarded as a consequence of hydrogen being trapped by helium bubbles. But when temperature increased, Ostwald ripening mechanism would become dominant, besides, too large a bubble could become mobile and swallow many tiny bubbles on their way moving, reducing bubble number density. And these effects were most remarkable at 450 °C which was the peak bubble swelling temperature for RAMF steel. When temperature was high enough, say above 450, point defects would become mobile and annihilate at dislocations or surface. As a consequence, helium could no longer effectively diffuse and clustering in materials and bubble formation was suppressed. When temperature was above 500, helium bubbles would become unstable and decompose or migrate out of surface. Finally no bubble was observed at 650 °C.

  8. Synergistic effect of helium and hydrogen for bubble swelling in reduced-activation ferritic/martensitic steel under sequential helium and hydrogen irradiation at different temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Wenhui; Guo, Liping; Chen, Jihong; Luo, Fengfeng; Li, Tiecheng; Ren, Yaoyao; Suo, Jinping; Yang, Feng

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Helium/hydrogen synergistic effect can increase irradiation swelling of RAFM steel. • Hydrogen can be trapped to the outer surface of helium bubbles. • Too large a helium bubble can become movable. • Point defects would become mobile and annihilate at dislocations at high temperature. • The peak swelling temperature for RAFM steel is 450 °C. - Abstract: In order to investigate the synergistic effect of helium and hydrogen on swelling in reduced-activation ferritic/martensitic (RAFM) steel, specimens were separately irradiated by single He + beam and sequential He + and H + beams at different temperatures from 250 to 650 °C. Transmission electron microscope observation showed that implantation of hydrogen into the specimens pre-irradiated by helium can result in obvious enhancement of bubble size and swelling rate which can be regarded as a consequence of hydrogen being trapped by helium bubbles. But when temperature increased, Ostwald ripening mechanism would become dominant, besides, too large a bubble could become mobile and swallow many tiny bubbles on their way moving, reducing bubble number density. And these effects were most remarkable at 450 °C which was the peak bubble swelling temperature for RAMF steel. When temperature was high enough, say above 450, point defects would become mobile and annihilate at dislocations or surface. As a consequence, helium could no longer effectively diffuse and clustering in materials and bubble formation was suppressed. When temperature was above 500, helium bubbles would become unstable and decompose or migrate out of surface. Finally no bubble was observed at 650 °C

  9. Uncertainty vs. Information (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearing, Grey

    2017-04-01

    Information theory is the branch of logic that describes how rational epistemic states evolve in the presence of empirical data (Knuth, 2005), and any logic of science is incomplete without such a theory. Developing a formal philosophy of science that recognizes this fact results in essentially trivial solutions to several longstanding problems are generally considered intractable, including: • Alleviating the need for any likelihood function or error model. • Derivation of purely logical falsification criteria for hypothesis testing. • Specification of a general quantitative method for process-level model diagnostics. More generally, I make the following arguments: 1. Model evaluation should not proceed by quantifying and/or reducing error or uncertainty, and instead should be approached as a problem of ensuring that our models contain as much information as our experimental data. I propose that the latter is the only question a scientist actually has the ability to ask. 2. Instead of building geophysical models as solutions to differential equations that represent conservation laws, we should build models as maximum entropy distributions constrained by conservation symmetries. This will allow us to derive predictive probabilities directly from first principles. Knuth, K. H. (2005) 'Lattice duality: The origin of probability and entropy', Neurocomputing, 67, pp. 245-274.

  10. Conditional uncertainty principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gour, Gilad; Grudka, Andrzej; Horodecki, Michał; Kłobus, Waldemar; Łodyga, Justyna; Narasimhachar, Varun

    2018-04-01

    We develop a general operational framework that formalizes the concept of conditional uncertainty in a measure-independent fashion. Our formalism is built upon a mathematical relation which we call conditional majorization. We define conditional majorization and, for the case of classical memory, we provide its thorough characterization in terms of monotones, i.e., functions that preserve the partial order under conditional majorization. We demonstrate the application of this framework by deriving two types of memory-assisted uncertainty relations, (1) a monotone-based conditional uncertainty relation and (2) a universal measure-independent conditional uncertainty relation, both of which set a lower bound on the minimal uncertainty that Bob has about Alice's pair of incompatible measurements, conditioned on arbitrary measurement that Bob makes on his own system. We next compare the obtained relations with their existing entropic counterparts and find that they are at least independent.

  11. Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-03-19

    This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

  12. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  13. Potential effects of organizational uncertainty on safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durbin, N.E.; Lekberg, A.; Melber, B.D.

    2001-12-01

    When organizations face significant change - reorganization, mergers, acquisitions, down sizing, plant closures or decommissioning - both the organizations and the workers in those organizations experience significant uncertainty about the future. This uncertainty affects the organization and the people working in the organization - adversely affecting morale, reducing concentration on safe operations, and resulting in the loss of key staff. Hence, organizations, particularly those using high risk technologies, which are facing significant change need to consider and plan for the effects of organizational uncertainty on safety - as well as planning for other consequences of change - technical, economic, emotional, and productivity related. This paper reviews some of what is known about the effects of uncertainty on organizations and individuals, discusses the potential consequences of uncertainty on organizational and individual behavior, and presents some of the implications for safety professionals

  14. Potential effects of organizational uncertainty on safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durbin, N.E. [MPD Consulting Group, Kirkland, WA (United States); Lekberg, A. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Melber, B.D. [Melber Consulting, Seattle WA (United States)

    2001-12-01

    When organizations face significant change - reorganization, mergers, acquisitions, down sizing, plant closures or decommissioning - both the organizations and the workers in those organizations experience significant uncertainty about the future. This uncertainty affects the organization and the people working in the organization - adversely affecting morale, reducing concentration on safe operations, and resulting in the loss of key staff. Hence, organizations, particularly those using high risk technologies, which are facing significant change need to consider and plan for the effects of organizational uncertainty on safety - as well as planning for other consequences of change - technical, economic, emotional, and productivity related. This paper reviews some of what is known about the effects of uncertainty on organizations and individuals, discusses the potential consequences of uncertainty on organizational and individual behavior, and presents some of the implications for safety professionals.

  15. Effect of new type of synthetic waxes on reduced production and compaction temperature of asphalt mixture with reclaimed asphalt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentová, Tereza; Benešová, Lucie; Mastný, Jan; Valentin, Jan

    2017-09-01

    Lower mixing and paving temperatures of asphalt mixtures, which are an important issue in recent years, with respect to increased energy demand of civil engineering structures during their processing, allow reduction of this demand and result in minimized greenhouse gas production. In present time, there are many possibilities how to achieve reduction of production temperature during the mixing and paving of an asphalt mixture. The existing solutions distinguish in target operating temperature behaviour which has to be achieved in terms of good workability. This paper is focused on technical solutions based on use of new types of selected synthetic and bio-based waxes. In case of bio-based additive sugar cane wax was used, which is free of paraffins and is reclaimed as waste product during processing of sugar cane. The used waxes are added to bituminous binder in form of free-flowing granules or fine-grained powder. Synthetic waxes are represented by new series of Fischer-Tropsch wax in form of fine granules as well as by polyethylene waxes in form of fine-grained powder or granules. Those waxes were used to modify a standard paving grade bitumen dosed into asphalt mixture of ACsurf type containing up to 30 % of reclaimed asphalt (RA).

  16. The Reduced Rank of Ensemble Kalman Filter to Estimate the Temperature of Non Isothermal Continue Stirred Tank Reactor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erna Apriliani

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Kalman filter is an algorithm to estimate the state variable of dynamical stochastic system. The square root ensemble Kalman filter is an modification of Kalman filter. The square root ensemble Kalman filter is proposed to keep the computational stability and reduce the computational time. In this paper we study the efficiency of the reduced rank ensemble Kalman filter. We apply this algorithm to the non isothermal continue stirred tank reactor problem. We decompose the covariance of the ensemble estimation by using the singular value decomposition (the SVD, and then we reduced the rank of the diagonal matrix of those singular values. We make a simulation by using Matlab program. We took some the number of ensemble such as 100, 200 and 500. We compared the computational time and the accuracy between the square root ensemble Kalman filter and the ensemble Kalman filter. The reduced rank ensemble Kalman filter can’t be applied in this problem because the dimension of state variable is too less.

  17. Fast and low-temperature sintering of silver complex using oximes as a potential reducing agent for solution-processible, highly conductive electrodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Ji Hoon; Park, Su Bin; Kim, Ji Man; Han, Dae Sang; Chae, Jangwoo; Kwak, Jeonghun

    2014-01-01

    Highly conductive, solution-processed silver thin-films were obtained at a low sintering temperature of 100 °C in a short sintering time of 10 min by introducing oximes as a potential reductant for silver complex. The thermal properties and reducibility of three kinds of oximes, acetone oxime, 2-butanone oxime, and one dimethylglyoxime, were investigated as a reducing agent, and we found that the thermal decomposition product of oximes (ketones) accelerated the conversion of silver complex into highly conductive silver at low sintering temperature in a short time. Using the acetone oxime, the silver thin-film exhibited the lowest surface resistance (0.91 Ω sq −1 ) compared to those sing other oximes. The silver thin-film also showed a high reflectance of 97.8%, which is comparable to evaporated silver films. We also demonstrated inkjet printed silver patterns with the oxime-added silver complex inks. (paper)

  18. Reduced water vapor transmission rates of low-temperature solution-processed metal oxide barrier films via ultraviolet annealing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Seonuk; Jeong, Yong Jin; Baek, Yonghwa; Kim, Lae Ho; Jang, Jin Hyuk; Kim, Yebyeol [POSTECH Organic Electronics Laboratory, Polymer Research Institute, Department of Chemical Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, 790-784 (Korea, Republic of); An, Tae Kyu [Department of Polymer Science & Engineering, Korea National University of Transportation, 50 Daehak-Ro, Chungju (Korea, Republic of); Nam, Sooji, E-mail: sjnam15@etri.re.kr [Information Control Device Section, Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute, Daejeon, 305-700 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Se Hyun, E-mail: shkim97@yu.ac.kr [School of Chemical Engineering, Yeungnam University, Gyeongsan, North Gyeongsang 712-749 (Korea, Republic of); Jang, Jaeyoung, E-mail: jyjang15@hanyang.ac.kr [Department of Energy Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, 133-791 (Korea, Republic of); Park, Chan Eon, E-mail: cep@postech.ac.kr [POSTECH Organic Electronics Laboratory, Polymer Research Institute, Department of Chemical Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, 790-784 (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-08-31

    Highlights: • Sol-gel-derived aluminum oxide thin films were prepared using ultraviolet (UV) annealing. • UV irradiation dramatically promoted the densification of AlO{sub x} during the annealing stage, thereby forming a close-packed AlO{sub x} film. • The resulting AlO{sub x} films deposited on polymer substrates exhibited good water vapor blocking properties with low water vapor transmission rates (WVTRs). - Abstract: Here, we report the fabrication of low-temperature sol-gel-derived aluminum oxide (AlO{sub x}) films via ultraviolet (UV) annealing and the investigation of their water vapor blocking properties by measuring the water vapor transmission rates (WVTRs). The UV annealing process induced the formation of a dense metal-oxygen-metal bond (Al-O-Al structure) at low temperatures (<200 °C) that are compatible with commercial plastic substrates. The density of the UV-annealed AlO{sub x} thin film at 180 °C was comparable to that of AlO{sub x} thin films that have been thermally annealed at 350 °C. Furthermore, the UV-annealed AlO{sub x} thin films exhibited a high optical transparency in the visible region (>99%) and good electrical insulating properties (∼10{sup −7} A/cm{sup 2} at 2 MV/cm). Finally, we confirmed that a dense AlO{sub x} thin film was successfully deposited onto the plastic substrate via UV annealing at low temperatures, leading to a substantial reduction in the WVTRs. The Ca corrosion test was used to measure the WVTRs of AlO{sub x} thin films deposited onto polyethylene naphthalate or polyimide substrates, determined to be 0.0095 g m{sup −2} day{sup −1} (25 °C, 50% relative humidity) and 0.26 g m{sup −2} day{sup −1}, respectively.

  19. Development of Property Models with Uncertainty Estimate for Process Design under Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hukkerikar, Amol; Sarup, Bent; Abildskov, Jens

    more reliable predictions with a new and improved set of model parameters for GC (group contribution) based and CI (atom connectivity index) based models and to quantify the uncertainties in the estimated property values from a process design point-of-view. This includes: (i) parameter estimation using....... The comparison of model prediction uncertainties with reported range of measurement uncertainties is presented for the properties with related available data. The application of the developed methodology to quantify the effec