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Sample records for recurrence risk assessment

  1. Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

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    Xiu-ying LONG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

  2. Assessing the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism – a practical approach

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    Fahrni, Jennifer; Husmann, Marc; Gretener, Silvia B; Keo, Hong H

    2015-01-01

    Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This risk is lowered by anticoagulation, with a large effect in the initial phase following the venous thromboembolic event, and with a smaller effect in terms of secondary prevention of recurrence when extended anticoagulation is performed. On the other hand, extended anticoagulation is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding and thus leads to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of recurrence for VTE on an individual basis, and a recommendation for secondary prophylaxis should be specifically based on risk calculation of recurrence of VTE and bleeding. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of relevant risk factors for recurrent VTE and a practical approach for assessing the risk of recurrence in daily practice. PMID:26316770

  3. Assessing the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism--a practical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahrni, Jennifer; Husmann, Marc; Gretener, Silvia B; Keo, Hong H

    2015-01-01

    Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This risk is lowered by anticoagulation, with a large effect in the initial phase following the venous thromboembolic event, and with a smaller effect in terms of secondary prevention of recurrence when extended anticoagulation is performed. On the other hand, extended anticoagulation is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding and thus leads to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of recurrence for VTE on an individual basis, and a recommendation for secondary prophylaxis should be specifically based on risk calculation of recurrence of VTE and bleeding. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of relevant risk factors for recurrent VTE and a practical approach for assessing the risk of recurrence in daily practice.

  4. Assessing the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism – a practical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fahrni J

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Jennifer Fahrni,1 Marc Husmann,2 Silvia B Gretener,3 Hong H Keo1 1Division of Angiology, Medical University Clinic, Kantonsspital Aarau AG, Aarau, Switzerland; 2Clinic for Angiology, University Hospital, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland; 3Clinic for Angiology Oberaargau, Langenthal, Switzerland Abstract: Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This risk is lowered by anticoagulation, with a large effect in the initial phase following the venous thromboembolic event, and with a smaller effect in terms of secondary prevention of recurrence when extended anticoagulation is performed. On the other hand, extended anticoagulation is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding and thus leads to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of recurrence for VTE on an individual basis, and a recommendation for secondary prophylaxis should be specifically based on risk calculation of recurrence of VTE and bleeding. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of relevant risk factors for recurrent VTE and a practical approach for assessing the risk of recurrence in daily practice. Keywords: thrombosis, hemorrhage, risk assessment 

  5. Recurrence models of volcanic events: Applications to volcanic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.; Picard, R.; Valentine, G.; Perry, F.V.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the risk of future volcanism has been conducted for isolation of high-level radioactive waste at the potential Yucca Mountain site in southern Nevada. Risk used in this context refers to a combined assessment of the probability and consequences of future volcanic activity. Past studies established bounds on the probability of magmatic disruption of a repository. These bounds were revised as additional data were gathered from site characterization studies. The probability of direct intersection of a potential repository located in an eight km 2 area of Yucca Mountain by ascending basalt magma was bounded by the range of 10 -8 to 10 -10 yr -1 2 . The consequences of magmatic disruption of a repository were estimated in previous studies to be limited. The exact releases from such an event are dependent on the strike of an intruding basalt dike relative to the repository geometry, the timing of the basaltic event relative to the age of the radioactive waste and the mechanisms of release and dispersal of the waste radionuclides in the accessible environment. The combined low probability of repository disruption and the limited releases associated with this event established the basis for the judgement that the risk of future volcanism was relatively low. It was reasoned that that risk of future volcanism was not likely to result in disqualification of the potential Yucca Mountain site

  6. Risk assessment models to predict caries recurrence after oral rehabilitation under general anaesthesia: a pilot study.

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    Lin, Yai-Tin; Kalhan, Ashish Chetan; Lin, Yng-Tzer Joseph; Kalhan, Tosha Ashish; Chou, Chein-Chin; Gao, Xiao Li; Hsu, Chin-Ying Stephen

    2018-05-08

    Oral rehabilitation under general anaesthesia (GA), commonly employed to treat high caries-risk children, has been associated with high economic and individual/family burden, besides high post-GA caries recurrence rates. As there is no caries prediction model available for paediatric GA patients, this study was performed to build caries risk assessment/prediction models using pre-GA data and to explore mid-term prognostic factors for early identification of high-risk children prone to caries relapse post-GA oral rehabilitation. Ninety-two children were identified and recruited with parental consent before oral rehabilitation under GA. Biopsychosocial data collection at baseline and the 6-month follow-up were conducted using questionnaire (Q), microbiological assessment (M) and clinical examination (C). The prediction models constructed using data collected from Q, Q + M and Q + M + C demonstrated an accuracy of 72%, 78% and 82%, respectively. Furthermore, of the 83 (90.2%) patients recalled 6 months after GA intervention, recurrent caries was identified in 54.2%, together with reduced bacterial counts, lower plaque index and increased percentage of children toothbrushing for themselves (all P < 0.05). Additionally, meal-time and toothbrushing duration were shown, through bivariate analyses, to be significant prognostic determinants for caries recurrence (both P < 0.05). Risk assessment/prediction models built using pre-GA data may be promising in identifying high-risk children prone to post-GA caries recurrence, although future internal and external validation of predictive models is warranted. © 2018 FDI World Dental Federation.

  7. Assessment of demographic and pathoanatomic risk factors in recurrent patellofemoral instability.

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    Hiemstra, Laurie Anne; Kerslake, Sarah; Lafave, Mark

    2017-12-01

    The WARPS/STAID classification employs clinical assessment of presenting features and anatomic characteristics to identify two distinct subsets of patients within the patellofemoral instability population. The purpose of this study was to further define the specific demographics and the prevalence of risky pathoanatomies in patients classified as either WARPS or STAID presenting with recurrent patellofemoral instability. A secondary purpose was to further validate the WARPS/STAID classification with the Banff Patella Instability Instrument (BPII), the Marx activity scale and the Patellar Instability Severity Score (ISS). A convenience sample of 50 patients with recurrent patellofemoral instability, including 25 WARPS and 25 STAID subtype patients, were assessed. Clinical data were collected including assessment of demographic risk factors (sex, BMI, bilaterality of symptoms, affected limb side and age at first dislocation) and pathoanatomic risk factors (TT-TG distance, patella height, patellar tilt, grade of trochlear dysplasia, Beighton score and rotational abnormalities of the tibia or femur). Patients completed the BPII and the Marx activity scale. The ISS was calculated from the clinical assessment data. Patients were stratified into the WARPS or STAID subtypes for comparative analysis. An independent t test was used to compare demographics, the pathoanatomic risk factors and subjective measures between the groups. Convergent validity was tested with a Pearson r correlation coefficient between the WARPS/STAID and ISS scores. Demographic risk factors statistically associated with a WARPS subtype included female sex, age at first dislocation and bilaterality. Pathoanatomic risk factors statistically associated with a WARPS subtype included trochlear dysplasia, TT-TG distance, generalized ligamentous laxity, patellar tilt and rotational abnormalities. The independent t test revealed a significant difference between the ISS scores: WARPS subtype (M = 4.4, SD

  8. Risk factors for recurrent spontaneous epistaxis.

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    Abrich, Victor; Brozek, Annabelle; Boyle, Timothy R; Chyou, Po-Huang; Yale, Steven H

    2014-12-01

    To identify risk factors associated with spontaneous recurrent epistaxis. This was a retrospective cohort study assessing patients in the Marshfield Clinic system diagnosed as having epistaxis between January 1, 1991, and January 1, 2011. There were 461 cases with at least 2 episodes of spontaneous epistaxis within 3 years and 912 controls with only 1 episode in the same time frame. More than 50 potential risk factors were investigated, including demographic features, substance use, nasal anatomical abnormalities, nasal infectious and inflammatory processes, medical comorbidities, medications, and laboratory values. A Cox proportional hazards regression modeling approach was used to calculate hazard ratios of epistaxis recurrence. Traditional risk factors for epistaxis, including nasal perforation, nasal septum deviation, rhinitis, sinusitis, and upper respiratory tract infection, did not increase the risk of recurrence. Significant risk factors for recurrent epistaxis included congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and a history of anemia. Warfarin use increased the risk of recurrence, independent of international normalized ratio. Aspirin and clopidogrel were not found to increase the risk of recurrence. Few major adverse cardiovascular events were observed within 30 days of the first epistaxis event. Congestive heart failure is an underappreciated risk factor for recurrent epistaxis. Hypertension and diabetes mellitus may induce atherosclerotic changes in the nasal vessels, making them friable and more at risk for bleeding. Patients with recurrent epistaxis may also be more susceptible to developing anemia. Physicians should promote antiplatelet and antithrombotic medication adherence despite an increased propensity for recurrent epistaxis to prevent major adverse cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2014 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Integration of a Radiosensitivity Molecular Signature Into the Assessment of Local Recurrence Risk in Breast Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres-Roca, Javier F.; Fulp, William J.; Caudell, Jimmy J.; Servant, Nicolas; Bollet, Marc A.; Vijver, Marc van de; Naghavi, Arash O.; Harris, Eleanor E.; Eschrich, Steven A.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Recently, we developed radiosensitivity (RSI), a clinically validated molecular signature that estimates tumor radiosensitivity. In the present study, we tested whether integrating RSI with the molecular subtype refines the classification of local recurrence (LR) risk in breast cancer. Methods and Materials: RSI and molecular subtype were evaluated in 343 patients treated with breast-conserving therapy that included whole-breast radiation therapy with or without a tumor bed boost (dose range 45-72 Gy). The follow-up period for patients without recurrence was 10 years. The clinical endpoint was LR-free survival. Results: Although RSI did not uniformly predict for LR across the entire cohort, combining RSI and the molecular subtype identified a subpopulation with an increased risk of LR: triple negative (TN) and radioresistant (reference TN-radioresistant, hazard ratio [HR] 0.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.15-0.92, P=.02). TN patients who were RSI-sensitive/intermediate had LR rates similar to those of luminal (LUM) patients (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.47-1.57, P=.63). On multivariate analysis, combined RSI and molecular subtype (P=.004) and age (P=.001) were the most significant predictors of LR. In contrast, integrating RSI into the LUM subtype did not identify additional risk groups. We hypothesized that radiation dose escalation was affecting radioresistance in the LUM subtype and serving as a confounder. An increased radiation dose decreased LR only in the luminal-resistant (LUM-R) subset (HR 0.23, 95% CI 0.05-0.98, P=.03). On multivariate analysis, the radiation dose was an independent variable only in the LUMA/B-RR subset (HR 0.025, 95% CI 0.001-0.946, P=.046), along with age (P=.008), T stage (P=.004), and chemotherapy (P=.008). Conclusions: The combined molecular subtype–RSI identified a novel molecular subpopulation (TN and radioresistant) with an increased risk of LR after breast-conserving therapy. We propose that the combination of RSI and

  10. Integration of a Radiosensitivity Molecular Signature Into the Assessment of Local Recurrence Risk in Breast Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torres-Roca, Javier F., E-mail: javier.torresroca@moffitt.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida (United States); Department of Chemical Biology and Molecular Medicine, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida (United States); Fulp, William J. [Department of Bioinformatics, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida (United States); Department of Biostatistics, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida (United States); Caudell, Jimmy J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida (United States); Servant, Nicolas [Institut Curie, INSERM U900, Paris (France); Mines ParisTech, Paris (France); Bollet, Marc A. [Institut Curie, INSERM U900, Paris (France); Vijver, Marc van de [Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Naghavi, Arash O. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida (United States); Harris, Eleanor E. [East Carolina University, Greensborough, North Carolina (United States); Eschrich, Steven A. [Department of Bioinformatics, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida (United States)

    2015-11-01

    Purpose: Recently, we developed radiosensitivity (RSI), a clinically validated molecular signature that estimates tumor radiosensitivity. In the present study, we tested whether integrating RSI with the molecular subtype refines the classification of local recurrence (LR) risk in breast cancer. Methods and Materials: RSI and molecular subtype were evaluated in 343 patients treated with breast-conserving therapy that included whole-breast radiation therapy with or without a tumor bed boost (dose range 45-72 Gy). The follow-up period for patients without recurrence was 10 years. The clinical endpoint was LR-free survival. Results: Although RSI did not uniformly predict for LR across the entire cohort, combining RSI and the molecular subtype identified a subpopulation with an increased risk of LR: triple negative (TN) and radioresistant (reference TN-radioresistant, hazard ratio [HR] 0.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.15-0.92, P=.02). TN patients who were RSI-sensitive/intermediate had LR rates similar to those of luminal (LUM) patients (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.47-1.57, P=.63). On multivariate analysis, combined RSI and molecular subtype (P=.004) and age (P=.001) were the most significant predictors of LR. In contrast, integrating RSI into the LUM subtype did not identify additional risk groups. We hypothesized that radiation dose escalation was affecting radioresistance in the LUM subtype and serving as a confounder. An increased radiation dose decreased LR only in the luminal-resistant (LUM-R) subset (HR 0.23, 95% CI 0.05-0.98, P=.03). On multivariate analysis, the radiation dose was an independent variable only in the LUMA/B-RR subset (HR 0.025, 95% CI 0.001-0.946, P=.046), along with age (P=.008), T stage (P=.004), and chemotherapy (P=.008). Conclusions: The combined molecular subtype–RSI identified a novel molecular subpopulation (TN and radioresistant) with an increased risk of LR after breast-conserving therapy. We propose that the combination of RSI and

  11. Recurrence risk of ictal asystole in epilepsy.

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    Hampel, Kevin G; Thijs, Roland D; Elger, Christian E; Surges, Rainer

    2017-08-22

    To determine the recurrence risk of ictal asystole (IA) and its determining factors in people with epilepsy. We performed a systematic review of published cases with IA in 3 databases and additionally searched our local database for patients with multiple seizures simultaneously recorded with ECG and EEG and at least one IA. IA recurrence risk was estimated by including all seizures without knowledge of the chronological order. Various clinical features were assessed by an individual patient data meta-analysis. A random mixed effect logistic regression model was applied to estimate the average recurrence risk of IA. Plausibility of the calculated IA recurrence risk was checked by analyzing the local dataset with available information in chronological order. Eighty patients with 182 IA in 537 seizures were included. Recurrence risk of IA amounted to 40% (95% confidence interval [CI] 32%-50%). None of the clinical factors (age, sex, type and duration of epilepsy, hemispheric lateralization, duration of IA per patient) appeared to have a significant effect on the short-term recurrence risk of IA. When considering the local dataset only, IA recurrence risk was estimated to 30% (95% CI 14%-53%). Information whether IA coincided with symptoms (i.e., syncope) or not was given in 60 patients: 100 out of 142 IAs were symptomatic. Our data suggest that in case of clinically suspected IA, the recording of 1 or 2 seizures is not sufficient to rule out IA. Furthermore, the high short-term recurrence risk favors aggressive treatment, including pacemaker implantation if seizure freedom cannot be achieved. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology.

  12. Validation study of a quantitative multigene reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay for assessment of recurrence risk in patients with stage II colon cancer.

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    Gray, Richard G; Quirke, Philip; Handley, Kelly; Lopatin, Margarita; Magill, Laura; Baehner, Frederick L; Beaumont, Claire; Clark-Langone, Kim M; Yoshizawa, Carl N; Lee, Mark; Watson, Drew; Shak, Steven; Kerr, David J

    2011-12-10

    We developed quantitative gene expression assays to assess recurrence risk and benefits from chemotherapy in patients with stage II colon cancer. We sought validation by using RNA extracted from fixed paraffin-embedded primary colon tumor blocks from 1,436 patients with stage II colon cancer in the QUASAR (Quick and Simple and Reliable) study of adjuvant fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy versus surgery alone. A recurrence score (RS) and a treatment score (TS) were calculated from gene expression levels of 13 cancer-related genes (n = 7 recurrence genes and n = 6 treatment benefit genes) and from five reference genes with prespecified algorithms. Cox proportional hazards regression models and log-rank methods were used to analyze the relationship between the RS and risk of recurrence in patients treated with surgery alone and between TS and benefits of chemotherapy. Risk of recurrence was significantly associated with RS (hazard ratio [HR] per interquartile range, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.74; P = .004). Recurrence risks at 3 years were 12%, 18%, and 22% for predefined low, intermediate, and high recurrence risk groups, respectively. T stage (HR, 1.94; P < .001) and mismatch repair (MMR) status (HR, 0.31; P < .001) were the strongest histopathologic prognostic factors. The continuous RS was associated with risk of recurrence (P = .006) beyond these and other covariates. There was no trend for increased benefit from chemotherapy at higher TS (P = .95). The continuous 12-gene RS has been validated in a prospective study for assessment of recurrence risk in patients with stage II colon cancer after surgery and provides prognostic value that complements T stage and MMR. The TS was not predictive of chemotherapy benefit.

  13. Local recurrence risk after previous salvage mastectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanabe, M; Iwase, T; Okumura, Y; Yoshida, A; Masuda, N; Nakatsukasa, K; Shien, T; Tanaka, S; Komoike, Y; Taguchi, T; Arima, N; Nishimura, R; Inaji, H; Ishitobi, M

    2016-07-01

    Breast-conserving surgery is a standard treatment for early breast cancer. For ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) after breast-conserving surgery, salvage mastectomy is the current standard surgical procedure. However, it is not rare for patients with IBTR who have received salvage mastectomy to develop local recurrence. In this study, we examined the risk factors of local recurrence after salvage mastectomy for IBTR. A total of 118 consecutive patients who had histologically confirmed IBTR without distant metastases and underwent salvage mastectomy without irradiation for IBTR between 1989 and 2008 were included from eight institutions in Japan. The risk factors of local recurrence were assessed. The median follow-up period from salvage mastectomy for IBTR was 4.6 years. Patients with pN2 or higher on diagnosis of the primary tumor showed significantly poorer local recurrence-free survival than those with pN0 or pN1 at primary tumor (p mastectomy for IBTR. Further research and validation studies are needed. (UMIN-CTR number UMIN000008136). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Risk factors of recurrent anal sphincter ruptures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jangö, Hanna; Langhoff-Roos, J; Rosthøj, Steen

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Jangö H, Langhoff-Roos J, Rosthøj S, Sakse A. Risk factors of recurrent anal sphincter ruptures: a population-based cohort study. BJOG 2012;00:000-000 DOI: 10.1111/j.1471-0528.2012.03486.x. Objective  To determine the incidence and risk factors of recurrent anal sphincter...... were used to determine risk factors of recurrent ASR. Main outcome measures  The incidence of recurrent ASR and odds ratios for possible risk factors of recurrent ASR: age, body mass index, grade of ASR, birthweight, head circumference, gestational age, presentation, induction of labour, oxytocin...... augmentation, epidural, episiotomy, vacuum extraction, forceps, shoulder dystocia, delivery interval and year of second delivery. Results  Out of 159 446 women, 7336 (4.6%) experienced an ASR at first delivery, and 521 (7.1%) had a recurrent ASR (OR 5.91). The risk factors of recurrent ASR in the multivariate...

  15. The histologic risk model is a useful and inexpensive tool to assess risk of recurrence and death in stage I or II squamous cell carcinoma of tongue and floor of mouth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinha, Namita; Rigby, Matthew H; McNeil, Michael L; Taylor, S Mark; Trites, Jonathan Rb; Hart, Robert D; Bullock, Martin J

    2018-02-02

    Surgery is the mainstay of treatment for low-stage (stage I/II, ie, T1N0/T2N0) squamous cell carcinoma of oral cavity. However, a significant percentage of low-stage squamous cell carcinoma of oral cavity will develop local recurrence and disease-related mortality. In this study, we stratified 64 patients with low-stage of oral tongue and floor of mouth patients into high-, intermediate- and low-risk categories based on existing histologic risk model. The classification of these risk categories was based on presence or absence of perineural invasion and evaluation of tumor-host junction for worst pattern of invasion and lymphocytic host response. We correlated risk category and other variables with recurrence and death. In a univariate model, high-risk category tumors had a significantly higher rate of recurrence and death due to recurrence compared with low/intermediate-risk categories (P=0.000 and P=0.047, respectively). Controlling for margin status and T-stage, high-risk category had a 12.4 odds ratio of later recurrence when compared with low/intermediate-risk categories, with a P-value of 0.001. In conclusion, we found low-stage oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma patients with high-risk category have a significantly higher risk for recurrence when compared with patients in the low- or intermediate-risk category, even when controlling for margin status and T-stage. These patients may be suitable candidates for adjuvant treatment to decrease morbidity and mortality associated with a recurrence. Our results indicate that the histologic risk model is a useful and simple tool to assess risk of recurrence in stage I or II squamous cell carcinoma of oral cavity.Modern Pathology advance online publication, 2 February 2018; doi:10.1038/modpathol.2017.183.

  16. Natural histroy of trisomy 18 and trisomy 13: I. Growth, physical assessment, medical histories, survival, and recurrence risk

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    Baty, B.J.; Blackburn, B.L.; Carey, J.C. [Univ. of Utah School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    1994-01-15

    The natural history of trisomy 18 and trisomy 13 was investigated using data derived from parent questionnaires and medical records from 98 families with an index case of trisomy 18 and 32 families with an index case of trisomy 13. Data are presented on pregnancy, delivery, survival, medical complications, immunizations, growth, cause of death, cytogenetics, and recurrence risk. Half of the trisomy 18 babies were delivered by C-section. Fetal distress was a factor in half, and the only reason in a third of C-section deliveries. One minute Apgar scores were significantly lower in C-section and breech deliveries. There were more small-for-gestational-age babies than in the general population, but most of the low-birth-weight newborns were small for gestational age, unlike the general population. Survival in this group of children was better than in other studies due to ascertainment bias. There were more girls than boys at all ages for both conditions, and the sex ratio decreased with time. Growth curves for length, weight, head circumference, and weight vs height are provided. Long-term survival did not appear to be due to mosaicism. There were no adverse reactions attributable to immunizations. At age 1 year there was an average of approximately 2 operations per living child. The authors report the second case of successful major cardiac surgery in a trisomy 18 child. Almost 70% of deaths were attributed to cardiopulmonary arrest. The sibling recurrence risk for trisomy 18 or trisomy 13 was 0.55%. 86 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.

  17. THE WAY OF ASSESSING THE ADHERENCE TO MODERN DRUG THERAPY CLINICAL GUIDELINES AIMED AT REDUCING THE RISK OF RECURRENT STROKE (ACCORDING TO THE LIS-2 REGISTER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Yu. Suvorov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To develop a method for the assessment of quality of medical prevention of recurrent stroke and its’ testing using the results of the LIS-2 register (Lyubertsy study of mortality in patients after stroke.Material and methods. The scale evaluation of the quality of therapy for the prevention of recurrent stroke developed in accordance with the modern clinical practice guidelines, as well as the recurrent stroke prevention index (RSPI for this assessment were elaborated. The analysis of the therapy was performed in patients after stroke in LIS-2 registers (n=219. The assessment of the quality of treatment was performed using RSPI, the influence of the index results on the in-hospital mortality was studied.Results. Two groups of patients [with RSPI=0 (n=137 and RSPI>0 (n=82] were formed on the basis of the results evaluation via RSPI. Significant differences between groups were not found. At the same time higher in-hospital mortality (p=0.014; χ2 Pearson was detected in patients with RSPI=0; relative risk of in-hospital death (after adjustment for sex and age was 2.04 [1.07-3.91] (p=0.031. Analysis of the length of survival and duration of hospital stay was performed in both groups using the Kaplan-Meier method. In-hospital mortality was significantly higher in patients with RSPI=0, which was confirmed by the log-rank test (p=0.032.Conclusion. The results of the quality of medical care assessment in accordance with the developed method are significantly related to the outcomes during the stay in a hospital. The developed method, based on current clinical recommendations, can serve as an example of the implementation of evidence-based medicine in actual practice.

  18. Recurrent Shoulder Dystocia: Risk Factors and Counseling.

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    Gurewitsch Allen, Edith D

    2016-12-01

    A prior history of delivery complicated by shoulder dystocia confers a 6-fold to nearly 30-fold increased risk of shoulder dystocia recurrence in a subsequent vaginal delivery, with most reported rates between 12% and 17%. Whereas prevention of shoulder dystocia in the general population is neither feasible nor cost-effective, directing intervention efforts at the particular subgroup of women with a prior history of shoulder dystocia has merit. Potentially modifiable risk factors and individualized management strategies that may reduce shoulder dystocia recurrence and its associated significant morbidities are reviewed.

  19. Estimation of groin recurrence risk in patients with squamous cell vulvar carcinoma by the assessment of marker gene expression in the lymph nodes

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    Kowalewska Magdalena

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Regional lymph node (LN status is a well-known prognostic factor for vulvar carcinoma (VC patients. Although the reliable LN assessment in VC is crucial, it presents significant diagnostic problems. We aimed to identify specific mRNA markers of VC dissemination in the LN and to address the feasibility of predicting the risk of nodal recurrence by the patterns of gene expression. Methods Sentinel and inguinal LN samples from 20 patients who had undergone surgery for stage T1-3, N0-2, M0 primary vulvar squamous cell carcinoma were analyzed. Gene expression profiles were assessed in four metastatic [LN(+] and four histologically negative [LN(−] lymph node samples obtained from four VC patients, by the Affymetrix U133 Plus 2.0 gene expression microarrays. Of the set of genes of the highest expression in the metastatic LNs compared to LN(−, seven candidate marker genes were selected: PERP, S100A8, FABP5, SFN, CA12, JUP and CSTA, and the expression levels of these genes were further analyzed by the real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR in 71 LN samples. Results All of the seven genes in question were significantly increased in LN(+ compared to LN(− samples. In the initial validation of the seven putative markers of metastatic LN, the Cox proportional hazard model pointed to SFN, CA12 and JUP expression to significantly relate to the time to groin recurrence in VC patients. Conclusions Our findings first provided evidence that SFN, CA12 and JUP have a potential of marker genes for the prediction of the groin recurrence LN in VC patients.

  20. Recurrent rates and risk factors associated with recurrent painful bullous keratopathy after primary phototherapeutic keratectomy

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    Kasetsuwan N

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Ngamjit Kasetsuwan, Kanokorn Sakpisuttivanit, Usanee Reinprayoon, Vilavun Puangsricharern Department of Ophthalmology, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University and King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand Objective: To assess the recurrent rate, mean survival time, and risk factors associated with recurrent painful bullous keratopathy (BK after primary treatment with phototherapeutic keratectomy.Methods: Medical records from 72 patients (72 eyes who had phototherapeutic keratectomy for painful BK were evaluated. Data for sex, age, duration of BK, associated ocular and systemic diseases (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, ischemic heart disease, asthma, dyslipidemia, and rheumatoid arthritis, frequency and degree of pain (grade 1–3, visual acuity, corneal thickness, intraocular pressure, and laser setting were extracted and analyzed.Results: The mean age of the patients was 64.2±11.4 years. The mean preoperative duration of BK was 15.0±11.0 months. Most patients had pseudophakic BK (69.40%. Majority of the cases had grade 3 degree of pain (48.60%. Glaucoma and hypertension were markedly found among these patients (51.40% and 19.40%, respectively. Preoperative mean intraocular pressure and corneal thickness were 13.70±4.95 mmHg and 734.1±83.80 µm, respectively. The mean laser diameter and depth were 8.36±1.22 mm and 38.89±8.81 µm, respectively. Systemic disease was significantly associated with the risk for developing recurrent painful BK (P=0.022, hazard ratio [HR] 1.673, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08–2.58. The overall recurrent rate was 51%. The average duration time of recurrent painful BK was 17.3±12.9 months (range 1–50 months. The median survival time before recurrence was 29.0±6.6 months.Conclusion: Systemic disease was found to be the only risk factor significantly associated with the development of recurrent painful BK. Low recurrent rate and long mean survival time showed that phototherapeutic

  1. Statins and risk of breast cancer recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sakellakis M

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Minas Sakellakis,1 Karolina Akinosoglou,1 Anastasia Kostaki,2 Despina Spyropoulou,1 Angelos Koutras,1 1Department of Medicine, Division of Oncology, University Hospital, Patras Medical School, Patras, 2Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece Background: The primary end point of our study was to test whether the concurrent use of a statin is related to a lower risk of recurrence and increased relapse-free survival in patients with early breast cancer. Materials and methods: We reviewed 610 female patients with stage I, II, or III breast cancer who had been surgically treated and who had subsequently received at least adjuvant chemotherapy in order to prevent recurrence. Results: Among the 610 patients with breast cancer, 83 (13.6% were receiving a statin on a chronic basis for other medical purposes. Overall, statin users displayed longer mean relapse-free survival (16.6 vs 10.2 years, P=0.028. After data had been adjusted for patient and disease characteristics, statin users maintained a lower risk of recurrence. This favorable outcome in statin users was particularly evident when we included only younger patients in the analysis (20 vs 10 years, P=0.006. Conclusion: Statins may be linked to a favorable outcome in early breast cancer patients, especially in younger age-groups. Keywords: statins, breast, cancer, adjuvant, recurrence

  2. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  3. Comparison of Oncotype DX® Recurrence Score® with other risk assessment tools including the Nottingham Prognostic Index in the identification of patients with low-risk invasive breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotter, Maura Bríd; Dakin, Alex; Maguire, Aoife; Walshe, Janice M; Kennedy, M John; Dunne, Barbara; Riain, Ciarán Ó; Quinn, Cecily M

    2017-09-01

    Oncotype DX® is a gene expression assay that quantifies the risk of distant recurrence in patients with hormone receptor positive early breast cancer, publicly funded in Ireland since 2011. The aim of this study was to correlate Oncotype DX® risk groupings with traditional histopathological parameters and the results of other risk assessment tools including Recurrence Score-Pathology-Clinical (RSPC), Adjuvant Risk Index (Adj RI), Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and the Adjuvant! Online 10-year score (AO). Patients were retrospectively identified from the histopathology databases of two Irish hospitals and patient and tumour characteristics collated. Associations between categorical variables were evaluated with Pearson's chi-square test. Correlations were calculated using Spearman's correlation coefficient and concordance using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software, version 22.0.In our 300 patient cohort, Oncotype DX® classified 59.7% (n = 179) as low, 30% (n = 90) as intermediate, and 10.3% (n = 31) as high risk. Overall concordance between the RS and RSPC, Adj RI, NPI, and AO was 67.3% (n = 202), 56.3% (n = 169), 59% (n = 177), and 36.3% (n = 109), respectively. All risk assessment tools classified the majority of patients as low risk apart from the AO 10-year score, with RSPC classifying the highest number of patients as low risk. This study demonstrates that there is good correlation between the RS and scores obtained using alternative risk tools. Concordance with NPI is strong, particularly in the low-risk group. NPI, calculated from traditional clinicopathological characteristics, is a reliable alternative to Oncotype DX® in the identification of low-risk patients who may avoid adjuvant chemotherapy.

  4. Risk factors for recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janković Slobodan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis is relatively frequent condition, and may have serious health consequences, like chronic vulvovaginal pain syndrome. The aim of our study was to determine possible risk factors for recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis in non-pregnant females within the reproductive age. Methods. The design of our study was of a case-control type. Case and control patients were selected from the gynecological patients at six primary care facilities in Serbia and in Montenegro. The data on the patients' health condition, concomitant therapy and diseases were taken from their records, and the data on habits were obtained by unstructured interview. For potential risk factors crude odds ratios were calculated, and then adjusted by logistic regression. Results. A total of fifty-one patients had four or more episodes of vulvovaginal candidiasis during the last year (cases, and 132 patients with one to three episodes of vulvovaginal candidiasis were sampled as controls, matched by age. The only two significant associations were found between recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis and continual wearing of panty liners during the last year (Odds ratio - ORadjusted: 3.97; confidence interval - CI: 1.57-10.02; p = 0.004, and between recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis and predominant use of vaginal tampons during menstruation in the last year (ORadjusted: 4.25; CI: 1.11-16.27; p = 0.035. The synergistic effect was observed for the concurrent continual wearing of panty liners during the last year and selfmedication with antimycotics. Conclusions. Local factors, like wearing of panty liners or use of tampons during menstruation, may promote recurrence of vulvovaginal candidiasis, especially in patients who practice selfmedication with antimycotics.

  5. Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Amarenco, Pierre; LaRosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J. M.; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; de Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L. J.

    2016-01-01

    Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and residual

  6. Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Van Der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J G; Kastelein, John J P; Amarenco, Pierre; Larosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J M; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; De Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L J

    2016-01-01

    Background: Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and

  7. Arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift for recurrent anterior shoulder instability: functional outcomes and identification of risk factors for recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Issaq; Ashton, Fiona; Robinson, Christopher Michael

    2012-07-18

    Arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift is a well-established technique for the treatment of anterior shoulder instability. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcomes following arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift and to identify risk factors that are predictive of recurrence of glenohumeral instability. We performed a retrospective review of a prospectively collected database consisting of 302 patients who had undergone arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift for the treatment of recurrent anterior glenohumeral instability. The prevalence of patient and injury-related risk factors for recurrence was assessed. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the predicted probability of recurrence within two years. The chief outcome measures were the risk of recurrence and the two-year functional outcomes assessed with the Western Ontario shoulder instability index (WOSI) and disabilities of the arm, shoulder and hand (DASH) scores. The rate of recurrent glenohumeral instability after arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift was 13.2%. The median time to recurrence was twelve months, and this complication developed within one year in 55% of these patients. The risk of recurrence was independently predicted by the patient's age at surgery, the severity of glenoid bone loss, and the presence of an engaging Hill-Sachs lesion (all p surgery. Varying the cutoff level for the predicted probability of recurrence in the model from 50% to lower values increased the sensitivity of the model to detect recurrences but decreased the positive predictive value of the model to correctly predict failed repairs. There was a significant improvement in the mean WOSI and DASH scores at two years postoperatively (both p instability and individualizing treatment options for particular groups of patients. Prognostic level I. See Instructions for authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

  8. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  9. Assessment of the Relationship between Recurrent High-risk Pregnancy and Mothers’ Previous Experience of Having an Infant Admitted to a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sedigheh Hantoosh Zadeh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & aim:  High-risk pregnancies increase the risk of Intensive Care Unit (ICU and Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU admission in mothers and their newborns. In this study, we aimed to identify the association between the recurrence of high-risk pregnancy and mothers’ previous experience of having an infant admitted to NICU. Methods:We performed a cohort, retrospective study to compare subsequent pregnancy outcomes among 232 control subjects and 200 female cases with a previous experience of having a newborn requiring NICU admission due to intrauterine growth retardation, preeclampsia, preterm birth, premature rupture of membranes, and asphyxia. The information about the prevalence of subsequent high-risk pregnancies was gathered via phone calls. Results: As the results indicated, heparin, progesterone, and aspirin were more frequently administered in the case group during subsequent pregnancies, compared to the control group (P

  10. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  11. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  12. Risk factors of recurrent hamstring injuries: A systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.M. de Visser (H.); M. Reijman (Max); M.P. Heijboer (Rien); P.K. Bos (Koen)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractBackground Although recurrent hamstring injury is a frequent problem with a significant impact on athletes, data on factors determining the risk for a recurrent hamstring injury are scarce. Objective To systematically review the literature and provide an overview of risk factors for

  13. Patients at high risk of tuberculosis recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Mirsaeidi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Recurrent tuberculosis (TB continues to be a significant problem and is an important indicator of the effectiveness of TB control. Recurrence can occur by relapse or exogenous reinfection. Recurrence of TB is still a major problem in high-burden countries, where there is lack of resources and no special attention is being given to this issue. The rate of recurrence is highly variable and has been estimated to range from 4.9% to 47%. This variability is related to differences in regional epidemiology of recurrence and differences in the definitions used by the TB control programs. In addition to treatment failure from noncompliance, there are several key host factors that are associated with high rates of recurrence. The widely recognized host factors independent of treatment program that predispose to TB recurrence include gender differences, malnutrition; comorbidities such as diabetes, renal failure, and systemic diseases, especially immunosuppressive states such as human immunodeficiency virus; substance abuse; and environmental exposures such as silicosis. With improved understanding of the human genome, proteome, and metabolome, additional host-specific factors that predispose to recurrence are being identified. Information on temporal and geographical trends of TB cases as well as studies with whole-genome sequencing might provide further information to enable us to fully understand TB recurrence and discriminate between reactivation and new infection. The recently launched World Health Organization End TB Strategy emphasizes the importance of integrated, patient-centered TB care. Continued improvement in diagnosis, treatment approaches, and an understanding of host-specific factors are needed to fully understand the clinical epidemiological and social determinants of TB recurrence.

  14. Patients at high risk of tuberculosis recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirsaeidi, Mehdi; Sadikot, Ruxana T

    2018-01-01

    Recurrent tuberculosis (TB) continues to be a significant problem and is an important indicator of the effectiveness of TB control. Recurrence can occur by relapse or exogenous reinfection. Recurrence of TB is still a major problem in high-burden countries, where there is lack of resources and no special attention is being given to this issue. The rate of recurrence is highly variable and has been estimated to range from 4.9% to 47%. This variability is related to differences in regional epidemiology of recurrence and differences in the definitions used by the TB control programs. In addition to treatment failure from noncompliance, there are several key host factors that are associated with high rates of recurrence. The widely recognized host factors independent of treatment program that predispose to TB recurrence include gender differences, malnutrition; comorbidities such as diabetes, renal failure, and systemic diseases, especially immunosuppressive states such as human immunodeficiency virus; substance abuse; and environmental exposures such as silicosis. With improved understanding of the human genome, proteome, and metabolome, additional host-specific factors that predispose to recurrence are being identified. Information on temporal and geographical trends of TB cases as well as studies with whole-genome sequencing might provide further information to enable us to fully understand TB recurrence and discriminate between reactivation and new infection. The recently launched World Health Organization End TB Strategy emphasizes the importance of integrated, patient-centered TB care. Continued improvement in diagnosis, treatment approaches, and an understanding of host-specific factors are needed to fully understand the clinical epidemiological and social determinants of TB recurrence.

  15. Symptoms of Knee Instability as Risk Factors for Recurrent Falls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevitt, Michael C; Tolstykh, Irina; Shakoor, Najia; Nguyen, Uyen-Sa D T; Segal, Neil A; Lewis, Cora; Felson, David T

    2016-08-01

    Whether knee instability contributes to the increased risk of falls and fractures observed in persons with knee osteoarthritis (OA) has not been studied. We examined the association of knee buckling with the risk of falling and fall-related consequences in older adults with, or at high risk for, knee OA. At the 60-month visit of the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study, men and women ages 55-84 years were asked about knee buckling in the past 3 months and whether they fell when a knee buckled. Falls and fall-related injuries in the past 12 months and balance confidence were assessed at 60 and 84 months. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the association of knee buckling with falls and their consequences. A total of 1,842 subjects (59% women, mean ± SD age 66.9 ± 7.8 years, and body mass index 30.3 ± 5.7) were included. At 60 months 16.8% reported buckling and at 84 months 14.1% had recurrent (≥2) falls. Bucklers at 60 months had a 1.6- to 2.5-fold greater odds of recurrent falls, fear of falling, and poor balance confidence at 84 months. Those who fell when a knee buckled at baseline had a 4.5-fold, 2-fold, and 3-fold increased odds 2 years later of recurrent falls, significant fall injuries, and fall injuries that limited activity, respectively, and were 4 times more likely to have poor balance confidence. Interventions that reduce knee buckling may help prevent falls, fall-related injuries, and adverse psychological consequences of falls in persons with knee OA. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

  16. Symptoms of Knee Instability are Risk Factors for Recurrent Falls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevitt, Michael C; Tolstykh, Irina; Shakoor, Najia; Nguyen, Uyen-Sa D.T.; Segal, Neil A; Lewis, Cora; Felson, David T

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Whether knee instability contributes to the increased risk of falls and fractures observed in persons with knee osteoarthritis (OA) has not been studied. We examined the association of knee buckling with the risk of falling and fall-related consequences in older adults with, or at high risk for, knee OA. Methods At the 60 month visit of the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study, men and women ages 55 to 84 were asked about knee buckling in the past 3 months and whether they fell when a knee buckled. Falls and fall-related injuries in the past 12 months and balance confidence were assessed at 60 and 84 months. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the association of knee buckling with falls and their consequences. Results 1,842 subjects (59% women, mean [SD] age= 66.9 [7.8] and BMI= 30.3 [5.7]) were included. At 60 months 16.8% reported buckling and at 84 months 14.1% had recurrent (≥2) falls. Bucklers at 60 months had a 1.6 to 2.5-fold greater odds of recurrent falls, fear of falling and poor balance confidence at 84 months. Those who fell when a knee buckled at baseline had a 4.5-fold, 2-fold and 3-fold increased odds two years later of recurrent falls, significant fall injuries and fall injuries that limited activity, respectively, and were 4 times more likely to have poor balance confidence. Conclusion Interventions that reduce knee buckling may help prevent falls, fall-related injuries and adverse psychological consequences of falls in persons with knee OA. PMID:26853236

  17. Knowledge of Stroke Risk Factors and Warning Signs in Patients with Recurrent Stroke or Recurrent Transient Ischaemic Attack in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jittima Saengsuwan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Stroke is a global burden. It is not known whether patients who are most at risk of stroke (recurrent stroke or recurrent transient ischaemic attack have enough knowledge of stroke risk factors and warning signs. The aim of this study was to assess the knowledge of stroke risk factors and warning signs in this high-risk population. We performed a cross-sectional questionnaire-based study of patients with recurrent stroke or recurrent TIA admitted to Srinagarind Hospital and Khon Kaen Hospital, Thailand. A total of 140 patients were included in the study (age 65.6±11.3 years [mean ± SD], 62 females. Using an open-ended questionnaire, nearly one-third of patients (31.4% could not name any risk factors for stroke. The most commonly recognized risk factors were hypertension (35%, dyslipidemia (28.6%, and diabetes (22.9%. Regarding stroke warning signs, the most commonly recognized warning signs were sudden unilateral weakness (61.4%, sudden trouble with speaking (25.7%, and sudden trouble with walking, loss of balance, or dizziness (21.4%. Nineteen patients (13.6% could not identify any warning signs. The results showed that knowledge of stroke obtained from open-ended questionnaires is still unsatisfactory. The healthcare provider should provide structured interventions to increase knowledge and awareness of stroke in these patients.

  18. Risk factors for recurrent laryngeal nerve neuropraxia postthyroidectomy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Sheahan, Patrick

    2012-06-01

    Despite preservation of the recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN), transient vocal cord paralysis (VCP) occurs after 1.2% to 10.9% of thyroidectomies. The objective of this study was to study risk factors for transient VCP after thyroidectomy.

  19. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  20. Validation of the 12-gene colon cancer recurrence score as a predictor of recurrence risk in stage II and III rectal cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimers, Marlies S; Kuppen, Peter J K; Lee, Mark; Lopatin, Margarita; Tezcan, Haluk; Putter, Hein; Clark-Langone, Kim; Liefers, Gerrit Jan; Shak, Steve; van de Velde, Cornelis J H

    2014-11-01

    The 12-gene Recurrence Score assay is a validated predictor of recurrence risk in stage II and III colon cancer patients. We conducted a prospectively designed study to validate this assay for prediction of recurrence risk in stage II and III rectal cancer patients from the Dutch Total Mesorectal Excision (TME) trial. RNA was extracted from fixed paraffin-embedded primary rectal tumor tissue from stage II and III patients randomized to TME surgery alone, without (neo)adjuvant treatment. Recurrence Score was assessed by quantitative real time-polymerase chain reaction using previously validated colon cancer genes and algorithm. Data were analysed by Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for stage and resection margin status. All statistical tests were two-sided. Recurrence Score predicted risk of recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.57, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.11 to 2.21, P = .01), risk of distant recurrence (HR = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.04 to 2.17, P = .03), and rectal cancer-specific survival (HR = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.15 to 2.34, P = .007). The effect of Recurrence Score was most prominent in stage II patients and attenuated with more advanced stage (P(interaction) ≤ .007 for each endpoint). In stage II, five-year cumulative incidence of recurrence ranged from 11.1% in the predefined low Recurrence Score group (48.5% of patients) to 43.3% in the high Recurrence Score group (23.1% of patients). The 12-gene Recurrence Score is a predictor of recurrence risk and cancer-specific survival in rectal cancer patients treated with surgery alone, suggesting a similar underlying biology in colon and rectal cancers. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Assessment of sleep quality in benign paroxysmal positional vertigo recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yun; Fei Xia, Fei; Wang, Wei; Hu, Wenli

    2018-06-08

    Despite the availability of highly effective treatments, there is a significant recurrence rate of benign paroxysmal positional vertigo (BPPV). This study is aimed to quantitatively measure sleep quality in BPPV patients and correlate it with the recurrence of BPPV. In this longitudinal cohort study, the clinical records of 67 elderly or middle-aged adult patients who were diagnosed with BPPV at Neurology Clinic, Beijing Chaoyang Hospital affiliated to Capital Medical University between 2013 and 2014. The "Recurrent" and "Non-recurrent" BPPV were respectively defined. Primary data collection included the medical history, blood test and Pittsburgh sleep quality index measurement. Among the total 67 patients after successful treatment, recurrent BPPV is observed in 37.31% patients (n = 25) within 2 years. Among all 11 variables analyzed between recurrent and non-recurrent groups, only the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) scores showed significant difference (P quality, sleep latency, sleep duration, the use of sleep-aid medication and daytime dysfunctions (all P quality) had higher risk of BPPV recurrence (OR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.04-1.32, P= 0.0082). The sleep quality in patients with BPPV recurrence is significantly poorer compared to non-recurrent patients. Our result suggested sleep quality as measured by PSQI is an independent risk factor of BPPV recurrence.

  2. Different risk-increasing drugs in recurrent versus single fallers: are recurrent fallers a distinct population?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Askari, Marjan; Eslami, Saied; Scheffer, Alice C.; Medlock, Stephanie; de Rooij, Sophia E.; van der Velde, Nathalie; Abu-Hanna, Ameen

    2013-01-01

    Polypharmacy, and specifically the use of multiple fall-risk-increasing drugs (FRID), have been associated with increased risk of falling in older age. However, it is not yet clear whether the known set of FRIDs can be extrapolated to recurrent fallers, since they form a distinct group of more

  3. The Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score predicts biochemical recurrence in intermediate-risk prostate cancer treated with external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) dose escalation or low-dose rate (LDR) brachytherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, Vimal; Delouya, Guila; Bahary, Jean-Paul; Larrivée, Sandra; Taussky, Daniel

    2014-12-01

    To study the prognostic value of the University of California, San Francisco Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score to predict biochemical failure (bF) after various doses of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and/or permanent seed low-dose rate (LDR) prostate brachytherapy (PB). We retrospectively analysed 345 patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer, with PSA levels of 10-20 ng/mL and/or Gleason 7 including 244 EBRT patients (70.2-79.2 Gy) and 101 patients treated with LDR PB. The minimum follow-up was 3 years. No patient received primary androgen-deprivation therapy. bF was defined according to the Phoenix definition. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the differences between CAPRA groups. The overall bF rate was 13% (45/345). The CAPRA score, as a continuous variable, was statistically significant in multivariate analysis for predicting bF (hazard ratio [HR] 1.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-1.72, P = 0.006). There was a trend for a lower bF rate in patients treated with LDR PB when compared with those treated by EBRT ≤ 74 Gy (HR 0.234, 95% CI 0.05-1.03, P = 0.055) in multivariate analysis. In the subgroup of patients with a CAPRA score of 3-5, CAPRA remained predictive of bF as a continuous variable (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.01-2.27, P = 0.047) in multivariate analysis. The CAPRA score is useful for predicting biochemical recurrence in patients treated for intermediate-risk prostate cancer with EBRT or LDR PB. It could help in treatment decisions. © 2013 The Authors. BJU International © 2013 BJU International.

  4. Usefulness of parametric renal clearance images in the assessment of basic risk factors for renalnal clearance images in the assessment of basic risk factors for renal scarring in children with recurrent urinary tract infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietrzak-Stelasiak, Ewa; Bieńkiewicz, Małgorzata; Woźnicki, Wojciech; Bubińska, Krystyna; Kowalewska-Pietrzak, Magdalena; Płachcińska, Anna; Kuśmierek, Jacek

    2017-01-01

    Clinically confirmed incidents of acute pyelonephritis (APN) following recurrent infections of urinary tract (UTI) form basic risk factors for renal scarring in children. Vesico-uretheral reflux (VUR) of higher grade is additional risk factor for this scarring. Opinions on diagnostic value of summed sequential images of renal uptake phase (SUM) of dynamic renal scintigraphy in detection of renal scars are diverse. However, several publications point to higher diagnostic efficacy of clearance parametric images (PAR) generated from this study. To establish a clinical value of parametric renal clearance images in detection of renal scarring. A prospective study was performed in a group of 91 children at the age of 4 to 18 years with recurrent UTI. Clinically documented incidents of APN were noted in 32 children: in 8 cases - one and in the remaining 24 - 2 to 5 (mean 3) incidents. In the remaining 59 patients only infections of the lower part of urinary tract were diagnosed. Static renal 99mTc-DMSA SPECT study and after 2-4 days dynamic renal studies (99mTc-EC) were performed in every patient not earlier than 6 months after the last documented incident of UTI. PAR images generated from a dynamic study by in-house developed software and SUM images were compared with a gold standard SPECT study. Percentages of children with detected renal scar(s) with SPECT and PAR methods amounted to 55% and 54%, respectively and were statistically significantly higher (p children with history of APN detected with SPECT and PAR methods were significantly more frequent than with infections of only lower part of urinary tract (72% vs. 46%; p = 0.017 and 69% vs. 46%; p = 0.036, respectively). A SUM method did not reveal statistically significant differences between frequencies of detection of scars in groups specified above - 38% vs. 27% (p = 0.31). Both SPECT and PAR methods showed also that frequencies of occurrence of renal scars in children with higher grades of VUR were higher than

  5. Risk factors for child maltreatment recurrence: An updated systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Oliver G; Hindley, Nick; Jones, David P H

    2015-10-01

    Children who have been maltreated are at increased risk of further maltreatment. Identification of those at highest risk of further maltreatment is a priority for professionals working in child protection services. The current study is intended to consolidate and expand on previous work on recurrence of child maltreatment. It has sought to identify risk factors for maltreatment recurrence in the recent literature in the expectation that this may help in the practical identification of children at risk. We conducted a systematic review of cohort studies published between 2003 and 2009, identifying factors associated with maltreatment recurrence in children. Studies included demonstrated differing levels of substantiation of maltreatment. Fifteen studies met inclusion criteria but showed significant heterogeneity, varying in setting, recruitment of subjects, types of maltreatment considered and length of follow-up. Previous findings were replicated and expanded in the current study in relation to a range of factors, including rates of maltreatment recurrence, maltreatment types, frequency of previous episodes of maltreatment, child and family considerations, home environment and service provision. Factors were identified irrespective of level of maltreatment substantiation. This study provides further systematic evidence of the existence of a number of factors associated with child maltreatment recurrence. It points to the possibility of practical application of its findings within the wider context of decision making in child protection services, with the ultimate aim of reducing recurrence of maltreatment in individual cases. © The Author(s) 2014.

  6. The recurrence risk of placenta accreta following uterine conserving management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, K M; Anwar, A; Lindow, S W

    2015-01-01

    Placenta accreta is a condition of abnormal placental attachment that was usually treated by hysterectomy. Techniques to conserve the uterus are now commonly used and series of subsequent pregnancy outcomes have been reported. The recurrence risk of placenta accreta is now a relevant detail and is currently not known. This work was performed to calculate the recurrence risk by reviewing the published literature. A literature search using the terms "placenta accreta", "placenta percreta", "placenta increta", "abnormal placental attachment" and "placental attachment disorder" followed by hand-searching identified 6 papers that contained data concerning recurrence of placenta accreta in subsequent pregnancies following initial conservative treatment. Overall 407 pregnancies were recorded and 85.7% of women reported achieved a subsequent pregnancy following conservative treatment. The risk of recurrence of placental attachment disorder in a subsequent pregnancy was 19.9% (weighted mean, 95% CI 12.2-27.7). The recurrence risk of placental attachment disorder following uterine conservation treatments is 20% . This risk should be discussed with women with an antenatal diagnosis of a placental attachment disorder who may be considering uterine conservation in order to retain the option of a future pregnancy.

  7. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  8. Epidemiology of early stages of epilepsy: Risk of seizure recurrence after a first seizure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizvi, Syed; Ladino, Lady Diana; Hernandez-Ronquillo, Lizbeth; Téllez-Zenteno, José F

    2017-07-01

    A single unprovoked seizure is a frequent phenomenon in the general population and the rate of seizure recurrence can vary widely. Individual risk prognostication is crucial in predicting patient outcomes and guiding treatment decisions. In this article, we review the most important risk factors associated with an increased likelihood of seizure recurrence after a single unprovoked seizure. In summary, the presence of focal seizure, nocturnal seizure, history of prior brain injury, family history of epilepsy, abnormal neurological exam, epileptiform discharges on electroencephalography and neuroimaging abnormalities, portend increased risk of seizure recurrence. Elucidation of these risk factors in patient assessment will augment clinical decision-making and may help determine the appropriateness of instituting anti-epilepsy treatment. We also discuss the Canadian model of single seizure clinics and the potential use to assess these patients. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Beliefs and Behaviors about Breast Cancer Recurrence Risk Reduction among African American Breast Cancer Survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Ansa

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available A growing body of evidence suggests that breast cancer recurrence risk is linked to lifestyle behaviors. This study examined correlations between breast cancer recurrence, risk reduction beliefs, and related behaviors among African American breast cancer survivors (AA BCSs. Study participants included 191 AA BCSs, mean age = 56.3 years, who completed a lifestyle assessment tool. Most respondents believed that being overweight (52.7%, lack of physical activity (48.7%, and a high fat diet (63.2% are associated with breast cancer recurrence. Over 65% considered themselves overweight; one third (33.5% agreed that losing weight could prevent recurrence, 33.0% disagreed, while the remaining 33.5% did not know; and nearly half (47.9% believed that recurrence could be prevented by increasing physical activity. Almost 90% survivors with BMI < 25 Kg/M2 reported no recurrence compared to 75.7% with BMI ≥ 25 Kg/M2 (p = 0.06; nearly all of the women (99.2% answered “yes” to seeking professional help to lose weight, 79.7% of which were recurrence-free (p = 0.05. These results provide information about AA BCSs’ beliefs and behaviors protective against breast cancer recurrence. Additional research is warranted to determine the effectiveness of educational interventions for AA BCSs that promote consumption of a healthy diet and engaging in regular physical activity.

  10. Risk factors for recurrent otitis media with effusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baljošević Ivan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Otitis media with effusion (OME is a common disease among the children aged from 6 months to 4 years, but recurrences are common after the extraction of ventilation tubes. The aim of the study was to determine the risk factors for recurrent OME after extraction of ventilation tubes. Methods. The research was a prospective study with 305 children aged 0 to 10 years with OME. Forty three (14% of them had recurrent OME. We analyzed the factors that could lead to the redevelopment of the disease after extrusion of the tubes. Results. It was found that the majority of children with recurrent disease was between the ages of 5 to 7 years (56% and had allergy in significantly higher rate than children without recurrence. In most cases (37.7%, the retention time of ventilating tube was above 10 months and the recurrent disease was diagnosed in 46.5% cases within a period of 10 to 12 months after extrusion of tubes. Conclusion. Children with OME and after ventilation tube extrusion need to be followed up for 1 year after the removal of tubes. It is necessary to inform the parents that the disease can recur. Children in the kindergarten, in preschool age and with a respiratory allergy had higher possibility for recurrent OME.

  11. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  12. [Recurrent vulvovaginitis: diagnostic assessment and therapeutic management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Santos, A; Pereiro, M; Toribio, J

    2008-04-01

    Recurrent vulvovaginitis is a common problem in clinical practice. Management is often complicated by a long history of inappropriate treatments based on tentative diagnoses after an incomplete diagnostic workup. We review the most common causes of recurrent vulvovaginitis; the appropriate steps with which to establish a diagnosis, from the medical history through to the additional tests needed; and, finally, the best therapeutic options. We will focus on infectious, irritant, allergic, and hormonal causes as the ones of most interest to the dermatologist. Given that infection is the most frequent cause of these processes and also a common reason for inopportune treatment, we will pay particular attention to infectious etiologies and their differential diagnosis.

  13. Risk Factors for Recurrent Urinary Tract Infection and Renal Scarring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keren, Ron; Shaikh, Nader; Pohl, Hans; Gravens-Mueller, Lisa; Ivanova, Anastasia; Zaoutis, Lisa; Patel, Melissa; deBerardinis, Rachel; Parker, Allison; Bhatnagar, Sonika; Haralam, Mary Ann; Pope, Marcia; Kearney, Diana; Sprague, Bruce; Barrera, Raquel; Viteri, Bernarda; Egigueron, Martina; Shah, Neha; Hoberman, Alejandro

    2015-07-01

    To identify risk factors for recurrent urinary tract infection (UTI) and renal scarring in children who have had 1 or 2 febrile or symptomatic UTIs and received no antimicrobial prophylaxis. This 2-year, multisite prospective cohort study included 305 children aged 2 to 71 months with vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) receiving placebo in the RIVUR (Randomized Intervention for Vesicoureteral Reflux) study and 195 children with no VUR observed in the CUTIE (Careful Urinary Tract Infection Evaluation) study. Primary exposure was presence of VUR; secondary exposures included bladder and bowel dysfunction (BBD), age, and race. Outcomes were recurrent febrile or symptomatic urinary tract infection (F/SUTI) and renal scarring. Children with VUR had higher 2-year rates of recurrent F/SUTI (Kaplan-Meier estimate 25.4% compared with 17.3% for VUR and no VUR, respectively). Other factors associated with recurrent F/SUTI included presence of BBD at baseline (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.07 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09-3.93]) and presence of renal scarring on the baseline (99m)Tc-labeled dimercaptosuccinic acid scan (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.88 [95% CI: 1.22-6.80]). Children with BBD and any degree of VUR had the highest risk of recurrent F/SUTI (56%). At the end of the 2-year follow-up period, 8 (5.6%) children in the no VUR group and 24 (10.2%) in the VUR group had renal scars, but the difference was not statistically significant (adjusted odds ratio: 2.05 [95% CI: 0.86-4.87]). VUR and BBD are risk factors for recurrent UTI, especially when they appear in combination. Strategies for preventing recurrent UTI include antimicrobial prophylaxis and treatment of BBD. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  14. Metabolic Characteristics and Risks Associated with Stone Recurrence in Korean Young Adult Stone Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Ho Won; Seo, Sung Pil; Kim, Won Tae; Kim, Yong-June; Yun, Seok-Joong; Kim, Wun-Jae; Lee, Sang-Cheol

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the metabolic characteristics and risks of stone recurrence in young adult stone patients in Korea. The medical records of 1532 patients presenting with renal or ureteric stones at our stone clinic between 1994 and 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were grouped according to age (young adult, 18-29 years; intermediate onset, 30-59 years; old age, ≥60 years) at first presentation, and measurements of clinicometabolic characteristics and risks of stone recurrence were compared. Overall, excretion of urinary stone-forming substances was highest in the intermediate onset group, followed by the young adult and old age groups. Importantly, excretion of urinary citrate was lowest in the young adult group. Kaplan-Meier analyses identified a significant difference between the three age groups in terms of stone recurrence (log rank test, p adult stone patients. Younger age (18-29 years) at first stone presentation was a significant risk factor for stone recurrence, and urinary citrate excretion was an independent risk factor affecting recurrence in this group. Metabolic evaluation and potassium citrate therapy should be considered for young adult stone patients to prevent recurrence.

  15. [Identifying clinical risk factors in recurrent idiopathic deep venous thrombosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Río Solá, M Lourdes; González Fajardo, José Antonio; Vaquero Puerta, Carlos

    2016-03-18

    Oral anticoagulant therapy for more than 6 months in patients with an episode of idiopathic thromboembolic disease is controversial. The objective was to determine predictive clinical signs that identify patients at increased risk of thromboembolic recurrence after stopping anticoagulant therapy for 6 months after an episode of idiopathic deep vein thrombosis (DVT). A prospective study which included 306 consecutive patients with a first episode of idiopathic DVT from June 2012 to June 2014. Predictor variables of recurrent thromboembolic disease and episodes of recurrence during follow-up of the patients (28.42 months) were collected. We performed a multivariate analysis to analyze possible predictors (Pthrombus (P=.001) in males, and persistence of residual thrombus in women (P=.046). The mean recurrence-free survival was shorter in both groups. The presence of echogenic thrombus in men and the existence of residual DVT in women were 2 clinical signs associated with increased risk of thromboembolic recurrence after stopping anticoagulant therapy for 6 months after an episode of idiopathic DVT in our study. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  16. Statin treatment and risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Cu Dinh; Andersson, Charlotte; Jensen, Thomas Bo

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Statins may decrease the risk of primary venous thromboembolism (VTE), that is, deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) but the effect of statins in preventing recurrent VTE is less clear. The aim of this study was therefore to investigate the association between statin ...

  17. Risk analysis factors for local recurrence in Ewing's sarcoma: when should adjuvant radiotherapy be administered?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albergo, J I; Gaston, C L L; Parry, M C; Laitinen, M K; Jeys, L M; Tillman, R M; Abudu, A T; Grimer, R J

    2018-02-01

    The aim of this study was to analyse a group of patients with non-metastatic Ewing's sarcoma at presentation and identify prognostic factors affecting the development of local recurrence, in order to assess the role of radiotherapy. A retrospective review of all patients with a Ewing's sarcoma treated between 1980 and 2012 was carried out. Only those treated with chemotherapy followed by surgery and/or radiotherapy were included. Patients were grouped according to site (central or limb) for further analysis of the prognostic factors. A total of 388 patients were included in the study. Of these, 60 (15%) developed local recurrence at a mean median of 27 months (sd 24, range 7 to 150) and the five-year local recurrence-free survival (5yrLRFS) was 83%. For central tumours, the size of the tumour and histological response to chemotherapy were found to be significant factors for local recurrence. For limb tumours, local recurrence was affected by intralesional and marginal resections, but not by the histological response to chemotherapy. Radiotherapy in those with a marginal resection reduced the risk of local recurrence (5yrLRFS: 96% versus 81%, p = 0.044). Local recurrence significantly affects the overall survival in patients with a Ewing's sarcoma. For those with a tumour in a limb, radiotherapy reduced the risk of local recurrence, especially in those with a marginal margin of excision, but the effect in central tumours was less clear. Radiotherapy for those who have had a wide margin of resection does not reduce the risk of local recurrence, regardless of the histological response to chemotherapy. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B: 247-55. ©2018 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

  18. Recurrence risk perception and quality of life following treatment of breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawley, Sarah T; Janz, Nancy K; Griffith, Kent A; Jagsi, Reshma; Friese, Christopher R; Kurian, Allison W; Hamilton, Ann S; Ward, Kevin C; Morrow, Monica; Wallner, Lauren P; Katz, Steven J

    2017-02-01

    Little is known about different ways of assessing risk of distant recurrence following cancer treatment (e.g., numeric or descriptive). We sought to evaluate the association between overestimation of risk of distant recurrence of breast cancer and key patient-reported outcomes, including quality of life and worry. We surveyed a weighted random sample of newly diagnosed patients with early-stage breast cancer identified through SEER registries of Los Angeles County & Georgia (2013-14) ~2 months after surgery (N = 2578, RR = 71%). Actual 10-year risk of distant recurrence after treatment was based on clinical factors for women with DCIS & low-risk invasive cancer (Stg 1A, ER+, HER2-, Gr 1-2). Women reported perceptions of their risk numerically (0-100%), with values ≥10% for DCIS & ≥20% for invasive considered overestimates. Perceptions of "moderate, high or very high" risk were considered descriptive overestimates. In our analytic sample (N = 927), we assessed factors correlated with both types of overestimation and report multivariable associations between overestimation and QoL (PROMIS physical & mental health) and frequent worry. 30.4% of women substantially overestimated their risk of distant recurrence numerically and 14.7% descriptively. Few factors other than family history were significantly associated with either type of overestimation. Both types of overestimation were significantly associated with frequent worry, and lower QoL. Ensuring understanding of systemic recurrence risk, particularly among patients with favorable prognosis, is important. Better risk communication by clinicians may translate to better risk comprehension among patients and to improvements in QoL.

  19. Primary Hyperaldosteronism As A Risk Factor For Recurrent Nephrolithiasis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekamol Tantisattamo

    2012-06-01

    Hyperaldosteronism can cause hypercalciuria, phosphaturia, and hypocitraturia, all of which are risk factors for nephrolithiasis. Additionally, hyperaldosteronism and deoxycorticosterone mediated hypertension have been associated with hypocalcemia and secondary hyperparathyroidism. Our case augments earlier literature suggesting increased risk for nephrolithiasis in patients with hyperaldosteronism and suggests that hyperaldosteronism should be considered as a risk factor for patient with nephrolithiasis. It remains unclear if both primary and secondary hyperaldosteronism increase the relative risk for nephrolithiasis and the role of aldosterone receptor antagonist therapy for recurrent nephrolithiasis associated with hyperaldosteronism.

  20. Risk factors for treatment failure and recurrence of anisometropic amblyopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirandi, Ece Uzun; Akar, Serpil; Gokyigit, Birsen; Onmez, Funda Ebru Aksoy; Oto, Sibel

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with failed vision improvement and recurrence following occlusion therapy for anisometropic amblyopia in children aged 7-9 years. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 64 children aged 7-9 years who had been diagnosed as having anisometropic amblyopia and were treated with patching. Functional treatment failure was defined as final visual acuity in the amblyopic eye of worse than 20/32. Improvement of fewer than two logMAR lines was considered relative treatment failure. Recurrence was defined as the reduction of at least two logMAR levels of visual acuity after decreased or discontinued patching. Functional and relative success rates were 51.6 and 62.5 %, respectively. The most important factor for functional treatment failure [adjusted odds ratio (OR) (95 % confidence interval, CI) 11.57 (1.4-95.74)] and the only risk factor for recurrence [adjusted OR (95 % CI) 3.04 (1.13-8.12)] were the same: high spherical equivalent (SE) of the amblyopic eye. A large interocular difference in the best-corrected visual acuity was found to be a risk factor for both functional and relative failure. High SE of the amblyopic eye was the most influential risk factor for treatment failure and recurrence in compliant children aged 7-9 years.

  1. Recurrence Risk after a First Remote Symptomatic Unprovoked Seizure in Childhood: A Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos-Lizana, J.; Aguirre-Rodriguez, J.; Aguilera-Lopez, P.; Cassinello-Garcia, E.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess recurrence risk after a first remote symptomatic unprovoked seizure in childhood. All consecutive patients younger than 14 years with a first remote symptomatic unprovoked seizure who were seen at our hospital between 1994 and 2006 were included in the study and prospectively followed. Only two patients received…

  2. Risk of Recurrence and Chemotherapy Benefit for Patients With Node-Negative, Estrogen Receptor–Positive Breast Cancer: Recurrence Score Alone and Integrated With Pathologic and Clinical Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Gong; Cuzick, Jack; Costantino, Joseph P.; Dowsett, Mitch; Forbes, John F.; Crager, Michael; Mamounas, Eleftherios P.; Shak, Steven; Wolmark, Norman

    2011-01-01

    Purpose The 21-gene breast cancer assay recurrence score (RS) is widely used for assessing recurrence risk and predicting chemotherapy benefit in patients with estrogen receptor (ER) –positive breast cancer. Pathologic and clinical factors such as tumor size, grade, and patient age also provide independent prognostic utility. We developed a formal integration of these measures and evaluated its prognostic and predictive value. Patients and Methods From the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel (NSABP) B-14 and translational research cohort of the Arimidex, Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (TransATAC) studies, we included patients who received hormonal monotherapy, had ER-positive tumors, and RS and traditional clinicopathologic factors assessed (647 and 1,088, respectively). Individual patient risk assessments from separate Cox models were combined using meta-analysis to form an RS-pathology-clinical (RSPC) assessment of distant recurrence risk. Risk assessments by RS and RSPC were compared in node-negative (N0) patients. RSPC was compared with RS for predicting chemotherapy benefit in NSABP B-20. Results RSPC had significantly more prognostic value for distant recurrence than did RS (P < .001) and showed better separation of risk in the study population. RSPC classified fewer patients as intermediate risk (17.8% v 26.7%, P < .001) and more patients as lower risk (63.8% v 54.2%, P < .001) than did RS among 1,444 N0 ER-positive patients. In B-20, the interaction of RSPC with chemotherapy was not statistically significant (P = .10), in contrast to the previously reported significant interaction of RS with chemotherapy (P = .037). Conclusion RSPC refines the assessment of distant recurrence risk and reduces the number of patients classified as intermediate risk. Adding clinicopathologic measures did not seem to enhance the value of RS alone nor the individual biology RS identifies in predicting chemotherapy benefit. PMID:22010013

  3. Risk of recurrence and chemotherapy benefit for patients with node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: recurrence score alone and integrated with pathologic and clinical factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Gong; Cuzick, Jack; Costantino, Joseph P; Dowsett, Mitch; Forbes, John F; Crager, Michael; Mamounas, Eleftherios P; Shak, Steven; Wolmark, Norman

    2011-11-20

    The 21-gene breast cancer assay recurrence score (RS) is widely used for assessing recurrence risk and predicting chemotherapy benefit in patients with estrogen receptor (ER) -positive breast cancer. Pathologic and clinical factors such as tumor size, grade, and patient age also provide independent prognostic utility. We developed a formal integration of these measures and evaluated its prognostic and predictive value. From the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel (NSABP) B-14 and translational research cohort of the Arimidex, Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (TransATAC) studies, we included patients who received hormonal monotherapy, had ER-positive tumors, and RS and traditional clinicopathologic factors assessed (647 and 1,088, respectively). Individual patient risk assessments from separate Cox models were combined using meta-analysis to form an RS-pathology-clinical (RSPC) assessment of distant recurrence risk. Risk assessments by RS and RSPC were compared in node-negative (N0) patients. RSPC was compared with RS for predicting chemotherapy benefit in NSABP B-20. RSPC had significantly more prognostic value for distant recurrence than did RS (P < .001) and showed better separation of risk in the study population. RSPC classified fewer patients as intermediate risk (17.8% v 26.7%, P < .001) and more patients as lower risk (63.8% v 54.2%, P < .001) than did RS among 1,444 N0 ER-positive patients. In B-20, the interaction of RSPC with chemotherapy was not statistically significant (P = .10), in contrast to the previously reported significant interaction of RS with chemotherapy (P = .037). RSPC refines the assessment of distant recurrence risk and reduces the number of patients classified as intermediate risk. Adding clinicopathologic measures did not seem to enhance the value of RS alone nor the individual biology RS identifies in predicting chemotherapy benefit.

  4. Growth of breast cancer recurrences assessed by consecutive MRI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Millet, Ingrid; Bouic-Pages, Emmanuelle; Hoa, Denis; Azria, David; Taourel, Patrice

    2011-01-01

    Women with a personal history of breast cancer have a high risk of developing an ipsi- or contralateral recurrence. We aimed to compare the growth rate of primary breast cancer and recurrences in women who had undergone prior breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Three hundred and sixty-two women were diagnosed with breast cancer and had undergone breast MRI at the time of diagnosis in our institution (2005 - 2009). Among them, 37 had at least one prior breast MRI with the lesion being visible but not diagnosed as cancer. A linear regression of tumour volume measured on MRI scans and time data was performed using a generalized logistic model to calculate growth rates. The primary objective was to compare the tumour growth rate of patients with either primary breast cancer (no history of breast cancer) or ipsi- or contralateral recurrences of breast cancer. Twenty women had no history of breast cancer and 17 patients were diagnosed as recurrences (7 and 10 were ipsi- and contralateral, respectively). The tumour growth rate was higher in contralateral recurrences than in ipsilateral recurrences (growth rate [10 -3 days -1 ] 3.56 vs 1.38, p < .001) or primary cancer (3.56 vs 2.09, p = 0.01). Differences in tumour growth were not significant for other patient-, tumour- or treatment-related characteristics. These findings suggest that contralateral breast cancer presents accelerated growth compared to ipsilateral recurrences or primary breast events

  5. Percutaneous Endoscopic Colostomy (PEC): An Effective Alternative in High Risk Patients with Recurrent Sigmoid Volvulus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, M. A. S.; Ullah, S.; Beckly, D.; Oppong, F. C.

    2013-01-01

    Treatment of recurrent sigmoid volvulus is a major challenge in frail and elderly patients with multiple co-morbidities. Early management involves endoscopic decompression with high success rate, however, its recurrence make it a real challenge as most of these patients are not suitable for major colonic resection. The aim of this study was to assess the role of percutaneous endoscopic colostomy (PEC) in the treatment of recurrent sigmoid volvulus in these patients. Twelve PEC procedures were performed in 8 patients under our care. This prevented major colonic resection in 7 patients. One patient underwent sigmoid resection and died with postoperative complications. Two patients experienced minor complications. Three patients required repeat procedures for permanent PEC tube placement. Six patients managed permanently with PEC procedure. PEC is an effective treatment for recurrent sigmoid volvulus in high-risk elderly patients. (author)

  6. Risk of Recurrent Pancreatitis and Progression to Chronic Pancreatitis After a First Episode of Acute Pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed Ali, Usama; Issa, Yama; Hagenaars, Julia C; Bakker, Olaf J; van Goor, Harry; Nieuwenhuijs, Vincent B; Bollen, Thomas L; van Ramshorst, Bert; Witteman, Ben J; Brink, Menno A; Schaapherder, Alexander F; Dejong, Cornelis H; Spanier, B W Marcel; Heisterkamp, Joos; van der Harst, Erwin; van Eijck, Casper H; Besselink, Marc G; Gooszen, Hein G; van Santvoort, Hjalmar C; Boermeester, Marja A

    2016-05-01

    Patients with a first episode of acute pancreatitis can develop recurrent or chronic pancreatitis (CP). However, little is known about the incidence or risk factors for these events. We performed a cross-sectional study of 669 patients with a first episode of acute pancreatitis admitted to 15 Dutch hospitals from December 2003 through March 2007. We collected information on disease course, outpatient visits, and hospital readmissions, as well as results from imaging, laboratory, and histology studies. Standardized follow-up questionnaires were sent to all available patients to collect information on hospitalizations and interventions for pancreatic disease, abdominal pain, steatorrhea, diabetes mellitus, medications, and alcohol and tobacco use. Patients were followed up for a median time period of 57 months. Primary end points were recurrent pancreatitis and CP. Risk factors were evaluated using regression analysis. The cumulative risk was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Recurrent pancreatitis developed in 117 patients (17%), and CP occurred in 51 patients (7.6%). Recurrent pancreatitis developed in 12% of patients with biliary disease, 24% of patients with alcoholic etiology, and 25% of patients with disease of idiopathic or other etiologies; CP occurred in 3%, 16%, and 10% of these patients, respectively. Etiology, smoking, and necrotizing pancreatitis were independent risk factors for recurrent pancreatitis and CP. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores at admission also were associated independently with recurrent pancreatitis. The cumulative risk for recurrent pancreatitis over 5 years was highest among smokers at 40% (compared with 13% for nonsmokers). For alcohol abusers and current smokers, the cumulative risks for CP were similar-approximately 18%. In contrast, the cumulative risk of CP increased to 30% in patients who smoked and abused alcohol. Based on a retrospective analysis of patients admitted to Dutch hospitals, a first

  7. Risk factors for recurrent nerve palsy after thyroid surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godballe, Christian; Madsen, Anders Rørbæk; Sørensen, Christian Hjort

    2014-01-01

    Recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN) injury is a well-known and serious complication to thyroid surgery. The objective was to estimate the frequency of post-thyroidectomy RLN palsy and to identify possible risk factors. Based on the Danish national thyroid surgery database, 6,859 patients treated...... predominant risk factors with a relative risk (RR) of 5.4 and 5.8, respectively. In benign cases previous performed thyroid surgery had a RR of 10.4. High volume departments with more than 150 thyroid procedures per year seem to perform significantly better. Malignant histology, neck dissection and previous...

  8. Recurrence risk in de novo structural chromosomal rearrangements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Benno; Kotzot, Dieter

    2007-08-01

    According to the textbook of Gardner and Sutherland [2004], the standard on genetic counseling for chromosome abnormalities, the recurrence risk of de novo structural or combined structural and numeric chromosome rearrangements is less than 0.5-2% and takes into account recurrence by chance, gonadal mosaicism, and somatic-gonadal mosaicism. However, these figures are roughly estimated and neither any systematic study nor exact or evidence-based risk calculations are available. To address this question, an extensive literature search was performed and surprisingly only 29 case reports of recurrence of de novo structural or combined structural and numeric chromosomal rearrangements were found. Thirteen of them were with a trisomy 21 due to an i(21q) replacing one normal chromosome 21. In eight of them low-level mosaicism in one of the parents was found either in fibroblasts or in blood or in both. As a consequence of the low number of cases and theoretical considerations (clinical consequences, mechanisms of formation, etc.), the recurrence risk should be reduced to less than 1% for a de novo i(21q) and to even less than 0.3% for all other de novo structural or combined structural and numeric chromosomal rearrangements. As the latter is lower than the commonly accepted risk of approximately 0.3% for indicating an invasive prenatal diagnosis and as the risk of abortion of a healthy fetus after chorionic villous sampling or amniocentesis is higher than approximately 0.5%, invasive prenatal investigation in most cases is not indicated and should only be performed if explicitly asked by the parents subsequent to appropriate genetic counseling. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  9. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  10. Subjective and objective assessment of patients' compression therapy skills as a predicator of ulcer recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mościcka, Paulina; Szewczyk, Maria T; Jawień, Arkadiusz; Cierzniakowska, Katarzyna; Cwajda-Białasik, Justyna

    2016-07-01

    To verify whether the subjectively and objectively assessed patient's skills in applying compression therapy constitute a predicting factor of venous ulcer recurrence. Systematic implementation of compression therapy by the patient is a core of prophylaxis for recurrent ulcers. Therefore, patient education constitutes a significant element of care. However, controversies remain if all individuals benefit equally from education. A retrospective analysis. The study included medical records of patients with venous ulcers (n = 351) treated between 2001 and 2011 at the Clinic for Chronic Wounds at Bydgoszcz Clinical Hospital. We compared two groups of patients, (1) with at least one episode of recurrent ulcer during the five-year observation period, and (2) without recurrences throughout the analysed period in terms of their theoretical skills and knowledge on compression therapy recorded at baseline and after one month. Very good self-assessment of a patient's compression therapy skills and weak assessment of these skills by a nurse proved significant risk factors for recurrence of the ulcers on univariate analysis. The significance of these variables as independent risk factors for recurrent ulcers has been also confirmed on multivariate analysis, which also took into account other clinical parameters. Building up proper compression therapy skills among the patients should be the key element of a properly construed nurse-based prophylactic program, as it is the most significant modifiable risk factor for recurrent ulcers. Although the development of compression skills is undeniably important, also other factors should be considered, e.g. surgical correction of superficial reflux. Instruction on compression therapy should be conducted by properly trained nursing personnel - the nurses should have received both content and psychological training. The compression therapy training should contain practical instruction with guided exercises and in-depth objective

  11. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  12. Pelvic Lymph Node Status Assessed by 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Predicts Low-Risk Group for Distant Recurrence in Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer: A Prospective Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Sokbom; Park, Jung-Yeol; Lim, Myung-Chul; Song, Yong-Joong; Park, Se-Hyun; Kim, Seok-Ki; Chung, Dae-Chul; Seo, Sang-Soo; Kim, Joo-Young; Park, Sang-Yoon

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a prediction model to identify a low-risk group for distant recurrence in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer treated by concurrent chemoradiation. Methods and Materials: Prospectively, 62 patients with locally advanced cervical cancer were recruited as a training cohort. Clinical variables and parameters obtained from positron emission tomography (PET) and magnetic resonance imaging were analyzed by logistic regression. For the test set, 54 patients were recruited independently. To identify the low-risk group, negative likelihood ratio (LR) less than 0.2 was set to be a cutoff. Results: Among the training cohort, multivariate logistic analysis revealed that advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage and a high serum squamous cancer cell (SCC) antigen level were significant risk factors (p = 0.015 and 0.025, respectively). Using the two parameters, criteria to determine a low-risk subset for distant recurrence were postulated: (1) FIGO Stage IIB or less and (2) pretreatment SCC < 2.4 (Model A). Positive pelvic node on PET completely predicted all cases with distant recurrence and thus was considered as another prediction model (Model B). In the test cohort, although Model A did not showed diagnostic performance, Model B completely predicted all cases with distant recurrence and showed a sensitivity of 100% with negative LR of 0. Across the training and test cohort (n = 116), the false negative rate was 0 (95% confidence interval 0%-7.6%). Conclusions: Positive pelvic node on PET is a useful marker in prediction of distant recurrence in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer who are treated with concurrent chemoradiation.

  13. Risk factors associated with recurrent homelessness after a first homeless episode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQuistion, Hunter L; Gorroochurn, Prakash; Hsu, Eustace; Caton, Carol L M

    2014-07-01

    Alcohol and drug use are commonly associated with the experience of homelessness. In order to better understand this, we explored the prevalence of drug and alcohol use as it related to successful re-housing within a sample of first-time single homeless adults at municipal shelters. From within this sample, we compared the features of recurrent homelessness with those of chronic homelessness and of being stably housed. We interviewed 344 subjects upon shelter entry and followed each one every six months for 18 months using standardized social and mental health measures. We analyzed baseline assessments relative to housing experiences during follow-up using Chi square and multinomial logistic regression. Eighty-one percent (N = 278) obtained housing over 18 months, of which 23.7 % (N = 66) experienced homelessness again. Recurrent homelessness was more common among those with a high school education and if initially re-housed with family. Bivariate analysis resulted in the observation of the highest rate of alcohol and other drug use among this recurrent group and multinomial logistic regression supported this only with the coupling of arrest history and diagnosed antisocial personality disorder. With relatively high rates of recurrent homelessness, there were differences between subjects who experienced recurrent homelessness compared to those who were stably housed and with chronic homelessness. That alcohol and other substance use disorders were associated with recurrent homelessness only if they were linked to other risk factors highlights the complexity of causes for homelessness and a resultant need to organize them into constellations of causal risk factors. Consistent with this, there should be initiatives that span bureaucratic boundaries so as to flexibly meet multiple complex service needs, thus improving outcomes concerning episodes of recurrent homelessness.

  14. Illness perceptions or recurrence risk perceptions: What comes first? A longitudinal cross-lagged examination among cardiac patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peleg, Shira; Drori, Erga; Banai, Shmuel; Finkelstein, Ariel; Shiloh, Shoshana

    2016-05-01

    Previous research suggested that illness perceptions provide the basis for illness risk perceptions through an inductive reasoning process. This study aimed to assess the direction of relationships between illness and recurrence risk perceptions over time, among cardiac patients. A longitudinal study was conducted among 138 patients undergoing coronary angioplasty. Self-report questionnaires measured perceived recurrence risk and illness perceptions one day and one month after catheterisation. Cross-lagged Panel Model Analyses revealed that higher perceptions of timeline, consequences and emotional representations of illness at hospitalisation were associated with higher recurrence risk perceptions one month later. Perceived personal control was the only illness perception with bi-directional associations: higher perceived personal control at hospitalisation was associated with higher recurrence risk perceptions one month later; and higher recurrence risk perceptions at hospitalisation was associated with lower personal control one month later. The findings suggest that the associations between recurrence risk and illness perceptions can only partly be explained by inductive reasoning. Halo effects and defensive processes are suggested as complementary explanations for the observed associations between risk and illness perceptions.

  15. Discontinuation of antiplatelet treatment and risk of recurrent stroke and all-cause death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ostergaard, Kamilla; Pottegård, Anton; Hallas, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    use and followed them up for stroke recurrence, or all-cause death. Person-time was classified by antiplatelet drug use into current use, recent use (≤150 days after last use), and non-use (>150 days after last use). Lipid-lowering drug (LLD) use was classified by the same rules. We used Cox......BACKGROUND: We wished to examine the impact of antiplatelet drug discontinuation on recurrent stroke and all-cause mortality. METHODS: We identified a cohort of incident ischaemic stroke patients in a Danish stroke registry, 2007-2011. Using population-based registries we assessed subjects' drug...... proportional hazard models to calculate the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of recurrent stroke or death associated with discontinuation of antiplatelet or LLD drugs. RESULTS: Among 4,670 stroke patients followed up for up a median of 1.5 years, 237...

  16. Intrahepatic recurrence after percutaneous radiofrequency ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma: Analysis of the pattern and risk factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Young-sun [Department of Radiology and Center for Imaging Science, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine (Korea, Republic of); Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Hanyang University College of Medicine (Korea, Republic of); Rhim, Hyunchul [Department of Radiology and Center for Imaging Science, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine (Korea, Republic of) and Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Hanyang University College of Medicine (Korea, Republic of)]. E-mail: forest@smc.samsung.co.kr; Cho, On Koo [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Hanyang University College of Medicine (Korea, Republic of); Koh, Byung Hee [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Hanyang University College of Medicine (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Yongsoo [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Hanyang University College of Medicine (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-09-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the pattern and risks for intrahepatic recurrence after percutaneous radiofrequency (RF) ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Materials and methods: We studied 62 patients with 72 HCCs ({<=}4 cm) who were treated with percutaneous RF ablation. The mean follow-up period was 19.1 months (6.0-49.1). We assessed the incidence and cumulative disease-free survival of local tumor progression (LTP) and intrahepatic distant recurrence (IDR). To analyze the risk factors, we examined the following, for the LTP: (1) tumor diameter, (2) contact with vessels, (3) degree of approximation to hepatic hilum, (4) contact with hepatic capsule, (5) presence of ablative safety margin, (6) degree of benign periablational enhancement and (7) serum alpha-fetoprotein; for the IDR: (1) severity of hepatic disease, (2) presence of HBsAg, (3) serum alpha-fetoprotein, (4) whether RF ablation was the initial treatment and (5) multiplicity of tumor for IDR. Results: The incidence of overall recurrence, LTP and IDR was 62.9%, 26.4% and 53.2%, respectively. The cumulative disease-free survival rates were 52%, 82% and 56% at 1 year, 26%, 63% and 30% at 2 years, respectively. Univariate analysis showed that the significant risk factors for LTP were: a tumor with a diameter >3 cm, contact of HCC with a vessel and an insufficient safety margin (p < 0.05). A multivariate stepwise Cox hazard model showed that the measurement of a tumor diameter >3 cm and insufficient safety margin were independent factors. Only the increased serum alpha-fetoprotein was a significant risk factor for IDR (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Intrahepatic recurrence after percutaneous RF ablation is common. Large HCC (>3 cm) with high serum alpha-fetoprotein should be treated more aggressively because of higher risk for recurrence.

  17. Risk estimation of multiple recurrence and progression of non muscle invasive bladder carcinoma using new mathematical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luján, S; Santamaría, C; Pontones, J L; Ruiz-Cerdá, J L; Trassierra, M; Vera-Donoso, C D; Solsona, E; Jiménez-Cruz, F

    2014-12-01

    To apply new mathematical models according to Non Muscle Invasive Bladder Carcinoma (NMIBC) biological characteristics and enabling an accurate risk estimation of multiple recurrences and tumor progression. The classical Cox model is not valid for the assessment of this kind of events becausethe time betweenrecurrencesin the same patientmay be stronglycorrelated. These new models for risk estimation of recurrence/progression lead to individualized monitoring and treatment plan. 960 patients with primary NMIBC were enrolled. The median follow-up was 48.1 (3-160) months. Results obtained were validated in 240 patients from other center. Transurethral resection of the bladder (TURB) and random bladder biopsy were performed. Subsequently, adjuvant localized chemotherapy was performed. The variables analyzed were: number and tumor size, age, chemotherapy and histopathology. The endpoints were time to recurrence and time to progression. Cox model and its extensions were used as joint frailty model for multiple recurrence and progression. Model accuracy was calculated using Harrell's concordance index (c-index). 468 (48.8%) patients developed at least one tumor recurrence and tumor progression was reported in 52 (5.4%) patients. Variables for multiple-recurrence risk are: age, grade, number, size, treatment and the number of prior recurrences. All these together with age, stage and grade are the variables for progression risk. Concordance index was 0.64 and 0.85 for multiple recurrence and progression respectively. the high concordance reported besides to the validation process in external source, allow accurate multi-recurrence/progression risk estimation. As consequence, it is possible to schedule a follow-up and treatment individualized plan in new and recurrent NMCB cases. Copyright © 2014 AEU. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  18. Biological risk indicators for recurrent non-specific low back pain in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, M A; Stratton, G; Reilly, T; Unnithan, V B

    2005-03-01

    A matched case-control study was carried out to evaluate biological risk indicators for recurrent non-specific low back pain in adolescents. Adolescents with recurrent non-specific low back pain (symptomatic; n = 28; mean (SD) age 14.9 (0.7) years) and matched controls (asymptomatic; n = 28; age 14.9 (0.7) years) with no history of non-specific low back pain participated. Measures of stature, mass, sitting height, sexual maturity (Tanner self assessment), lateral flexion of the spine, lumbar sagittal plane mobility (modified Schober), hip range of motion (Leighton flexometer), back and hamstring flexibility (sit and reach), and trunk muscle endurance (number of sit ups) were performed using standardised procedures with established reliability. Backward stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed, with the presence/absence of recurrent low back pain as the dependent variable and the biological measures as the independent variables. Hip range of motion, trunk muscle endurance, lumbar sagittal plane mobility, and lateral flexion of the spine were identified as significant risk indicators of recurrent low back pain (plow back pain in a group of adolescents. These risk indicators identify the potential for exercise as a primary or secondary prevention method.

  19. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  20. Association between genomic recurrence risk and well-being among breast cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Retèl, Valesca P; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina GM; Aaronson, Neil K; Brewer, Noel T; Rutgers, Emiel JT; Harten, Wim H van

    2013-01-01

    Gene expression profiling (GEP) is increasingly used in the rapidly evolving field of personalized medicine. We sought to evaluate the association between GEP-assessed of breast cancer recurrence risk and patients’ well-being. Participants were Dutch women from 10 hospitals being treated for early stage breast cancer who were enrolled in the MINDACT trial (Microarray In Node-negative and 1 to 3 positive lymph node Disease may Avoid ChemoTherapy). As part of the trial, they received a disease recurrence risk estimate based on a 70-gene signature and on standard clinical criteria as scored via a modified version of Adjuvant! Online. /Women completed a questionnaire 6–8 weeks after surgery and after their decision regarding adjuvant chemotherapy. The questionnaire assessed perceived understanding, knowledge, risk perception, satisfaction, distress, cancer worry and health-related quality of life (HRQoL), 6–8 weeks after surgery and decision regarding adjuvant chemotherapy. Women (n = 347, response rate 62%) reported high satisfaction with and a good understanding of the GEP information they received. Women with low risk estimates from both the standard and genomic tests reported the lowest distress levels. Distress was higher predominately among patients who had received high genomic risk estimates, who did not receive genomic risk estimates, or who received conflicting estimates based on genomic and clinical criteria. Cancer worry was highest for patients with higher risk perceptions and lower satisfaction. Patients with concordant high-risk profiles and those for whom such profiles were not available reported lower quality of life. Patients were generally satisfied with the information they received about recurrence risk based on genomic testing. Some types of genomic test results were associated with greater distress levels, but not with cancer worry or HRQoL. ISRCTN: http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN18543567/MINDACT

  1. [Integral Care Guide for Early Detection and Diagnosis of Depressive Episodes and Recurrent Depressive Disorder in Adults. Integral Attention of Adults with a Diagnosis of Depressive Episodes and Recurrent Depressive Disorder: Part I: Risk Factors, Screening, Suicide Risk Diagnosis and Assessment in Patients with a Depression Diagnosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Restrepo, Carlos; Peñaranda, Adriana Patricia Bohórquez; Valencia, Jenny García; Guarín, Maritza Rodríguez; Narváez, Eliana Bravo; Jaramillo, Luis Eduardo; Acosta, Carlos Alberto Palacio; Pedraza, Ricardo Sánchez; Díaz, Sergio Mario Castro

    2012-12-01

    Depression is an important cause of morbidity and disability in the world; however, it is under-diagnosed at all care levels. The purpose here is to present recommendations based on the evidence gathered to answer a series of clinical questions concerning risk factors, screening, suicide risk diagnosis and evaluation in patients undergoing a depressive episode and recurrent depressive disorder. Emphasis has been made upon the approach used at the primary care level so as to grant adult diagnosed patients the health care guidelines based on the best and more updated evidence available thus achieving minimum quality standards. A practical clinical guide was elaborated according to standards of the Methodological Guide of the Ministry of Social Protection. Recommendation from guides NICE90 and CANMAT were adopted and updated so as to answer the questions posed while de novo questions were developed. Recommendations 1-22 corresponding to screening, suicide risk and depression diagnosis were presented. The corresponding degree of recommendation is included. Copyright © 2012 Asociación Colombiana de Psiquiatría. Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  2. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  3. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  4. Perioperative events influence cancer recurrence risk after surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiller, Jonathan G; Perry, Nicholas J; Poulogiannis, George; Riedel, Bernhard; Sloan, Erica K

    2018-04-01

    Surgery is a mainstay treatment for patients with solid tumours. However, despite surgical resection with a curative intent and numerous advances in the effectiveness of (neo)adjuvant therapies, metastatic disease remains common and carries a high risk of mortality. The biological perturbations that accompany the surgical stress response and the pharmacological effects of anaesthetic drugs, paradoxically, might also promote disease recurrence or the progression of metastatic disease. When cancer cells persist after surgery, either locally or at undiagnosed distant sites, neuroendocrine, immune, and metabolic pathways activated in response to surgery and/or anaesthesia might promote their survival and proliferation. A consequence of this effect is that minimal residual disease might then escape equilibrium and progress to metastatic disease. Herein, we discuss the most promising proposals for the refinement of perioperative care that might address these challenges. We outline the rationale and early evidence for the adaptation of anaesthetic techniques and the strategic use of anti-adrenergic, anti-inflammatory, and/or antithrombotic therapies. Many of these strategies are currently under evaluation in large-cohort trials and hold promise as affordable, readily available interventions that will improve the postoperative recurrence-free survival of patients with cancer.

  5. GRECOS Project (Genotyping Recurrence Risk of Stroke): The Use of Genetics to Predict the Vascular Recurrence After Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Cadenas, Israel; Mendióroz, Maite; Giralt, Dolors; Nafria, Cristina; Garcia, Elena; Carrera, Caty; Gallego-Fabrega, Cristina; Domingues-Montanari, Sophie; Delgado, Pilar; Ribó, Marc; Castellanos, Mar; Martínez, Sergi; Freijo, Marimar; Jiménez-Conde, Jordi; Rubiera, Marta; Alvarez-Sabín, José; Molina, Carlos A; Font, Maria Angels; Grau Olivares, Marta; Palomeras, Ernest; Perez de la Ossa, Natalia; Martinez-Zabaleta, Maite; Masjuan, Jaime; Moniche, Francisco; Canovas, David; Piñana, Carlos; Purroy, Francisco; Cocho, Dolores; Navas, Inma; Tejero, Carlos; Aymerich, Nuria; Cullell, Natalia; Muiño, Elena; Serena, Joaquín; Rubio, Francisco; Davalos, Antoni; Roquer, Jaume; Arenillas, Juan Francisco; Martí-Fábregas, Joan; Keene, Keith; Chen, Wei-Min; Worrall, Bradford; Sale, Michele; Arboix, Adrià; Krupinski, Jerzy; Montaner, Joan

    2017-05-01

    Vascular recurrence occurs in 11% of patients during the first year after ischemic stroke (IS) or transient ischemic attack. Clinical scores do not predict the whole vascular recurrence risk; therefore, we aimed to find genetic variants associated with recurrence that might improve the clinical predictive models in IS. We analyzed 256 polymorphisms from 115 candidate genes in 3 patient cohorts comprising 4482 IS or transient ischemic attack patients. The discovery cohort was prospectively recruited and included 1494 patients, 6.2% of them developed a new IS during the first year of follow-up. Replication analysis was performed in 2988 patients using SNPlex or HumanOmni1-Quad technology. We generated a predictive model using Cox regression (GRECOS score [Genotyping Reurrence Risk of Stroke]) and generated risk groups using a classification tree method. The analyses revealed that rs1800801 in the MGP gene (hazard ratio, 1.33; P =9×10 - 03 ), a gene related to artery calcification, was associated with new IS during the first year of follow-up. This polymorphism was replicated in a Spanish cohort (n=1.305); however, it was not significantly associated in a North American cohort (n=1.683). The GRECOS score predicted new IS ( P =3.2×10 - 09 ) and could classify patients, from low risk of stroke recurrence (1.9%) to high risk (12.6%). Moreover, the addition of genetic risk factors to the GRECOS score improves the prediction compared with previous Stroke Prognosis Instrument-II score ( P =0.03). The use of genetics could be useful to estimate vascular recurrence risk after IS. Genetic variability in the MGP gene was associated with vascular recurrence in the Spanish population. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  6. Risk factors for recurrence, complications and mortality in Clostridium difficile infection: a systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire Nour Abou Chakra

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Clostridium difficile infection (CDI can lead to complications, recurrence, and death. Numerous studies have assessed risk factors for these unfavourable outcomes, but systematic reviews or meta-analyses published so far were limited in scope or in quality. METHODS: A systematic review was completed according to PRISMA guidelines. An electronic search in five databases was performed. Studies published until October 2013 were included if risk factors for at least one CDI outcome were assessed with multivariate analyses. RESULTS: 68 studies were included: 24 assessed risk factors for recurrence, 18 for complicated CDI, 8 for treatment failure, and 30 for mortality. Most studies accounted for mortality in the definition of complicated CDI. Important variables were inconsistently reported, such as previous episodes and use of antibiotics. Substantial heterogeneity and methodological limitations were noted, mainly in the sample size, the definition of the outcomes and periods of follow-up, precluding a meta-analysis. Older age, use of antibiotics after diagnosis, use of proton pump inhibitors, and strain type were the most frequent risk factors for recurrence. Older age, leucocytosis, renal failure and co-morbidities were frequent risk factors for complicated CDI. When considered alone, mortality was associated with age, co-morbidities, hypo-albuminemia, leucocytosis, acute renal failure, and infection with ribotype 027. CONCLUSION: Laboratory parameters currently used in European and American guidelines to define patients at risk of a complicated CDI are adequate. Strategies for the management of CDI should be tailored according to the age of the patient, biological markers of severity, and underlying co-morbidities.

  7. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  8. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  9. Intrahepatic recurrence after percutaneous radiofrequency ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma: Analysis of the pattern and risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Young-sun; Rhim, Hyunchul; Cho, On Koo; Koh, Byung Hee; Kim, Yongsoo

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the pattern and risks for intrahepatic recurrence after percutaneous radiofrequency (RF) ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Materials and methods: We studied 62 patients with 72 HCCs (≤4 cm) who were treated with percutaneous RF ablation. The mean follow-up period was 19.1 months (6.0-49.1). We assessed the incidence and cumulative disease-free survival of local tumor progression (LTP) and intrahepatic distant recurrence (IDR). To analyze the risk factors, we examined the following, for the LTP: (1) tumor diameter, (2) contact with vessels, (3) degree of approximation to hepatic hilum, (4) contact with hepatic capsule, (5) presence of ablative safety margin, (6) degree of benign periablational enhancement and (7) serum alpha-fetoprotein; for the IDR: (1) severity of hepatic disease, (2) presence of HBsAg, (3) serum alpha-fetoprotein, (4) whether RF ablation was the initial treatment and (5) multiplicity of tumor for IDR. Results: The incidence of overall recurrence, LTP and IDR was 62.9%, 26.4% and 53.2%, respectively. The cumulative disease-free survival rates were 52%, 82% and 56% at 1 year, 26%, 63% and 30% at 2 years, respectively. Univariate analysis showed that the significant risk factors for LTP were: a tumor with a diameter >3 cm, contact of HCC with a vessel and an insufficient safety margin (p 3 cm and insufficient safety margin were independent factors. Only the increased serum alpha-fetoprotein was a significant risk factor for IDR (p 3 cm) with high serum alpha-fetoprotein should be treated more aggressively because of higher risk for recurrence

  10. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  11. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  12. Risk of Local Recurrence of Benign and Borderline Phyllodes Tumors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borhani-Khomani, Kaveh; Talman, Maj-Lis Møller; Kroman, Niels

    2016-01-01

    women aged 18 years or older, operated from 1999 to 2014, with resected benign or borderline PTs. Information on age, size of primary tumor and recurrence, histological grade, surgical treatment, margin size, and local recurrence were collected from the national Danish Pathology Register. RESULTS.......1-192). We identified 30 local recurrences, i.e., a recurrence rate of 6.3 %. Twenty-three recurrences had similar or lower histological grading than the primary tumor, one primary benign PT recurred as a tumor with unclear diagnosis, and one primary borderline PT recurred as malignant. The number...

  13. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  14. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  15. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  16. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  17. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  18. Examining Whether Offspring Psychopathology Influences Illness Course in Mothers With Recurrent Depression Using a High-Risk Longitudinal Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Depression is known to be influenced by psychosocial stressors. For mothers with recurrent depressive illness, the presence of psychopathology in their children may have important effects on their own mental health. Although the impact of maternal depression on child mental health is well-established, no study to date, as far as we are aware, has examined the extent to which offspring psychopathology influences the course of depression in mothers with a history of recurrent depressive illness, what types of child psychopathology impact maternal mental health, or whether risks vary by child gender. Aims were to (a) Use a longitudinal design to examine whether adolescent psychopathology (depression, disruptive behavior disorder; DBD) predicts recurrence of a depressive episode and depression symptom course in women with a history of recurrent depression; and (b) To test if observed effects vary by child gender. 299 mothers with recurrent major depressive disorder and their adolescent offspring were assessed on 2 occasions, 29 months apart. Maternal depression and offspring psychopathology were assessed using semistructured interview measures. Cross-generational links across time were assessed using structural equation modeling. Analyses were adjusted for past severity of maternal depression. Offspring depression symptoms but not DBD symptoms at baseline predicted future episode recurrence in mothers. Depression symptoms in daughters (β = .16, p = .039) but not sons (β = −.07, p = .461), predicted an increase in maternal depression symptoms across time. Psychopathology in daughters is associated with long-term depressive symptoms in women (mothers) with a history of recurrent depression. Findings highlight the importance of careful assessment and management of mental health problems in adolescents for more effective management of maternal depression. This study suggests that offspring symptoms of depression may be important for the recurrence of maternal

  19. Examining whether offspring psychopathology influences illness course in mothers with recurrent depression using a high-risk longitudinal sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellers, Ruth; Hammerton, Gemma; Harold, Gordon T; Mahedy, Liam; Potter, Robert; Langley, Kate; Thapar, Ajay; Rice, Frances; Thapar, Anita; Collishaw, Stephan

    2016-02-01

    Depression is known to be influenced by psychosocial stressors. For mothers with recurrent depressive illness, the presence of psychopathology in their children may have important effects on their own mental health. Although the impact of maternal depression on child mental health is well-established, no study to date, as far as we are aware, has examined the extent to which offspring psychopathology influences the course of depression in mothers with a history of recurrent depressive illness, what types of child psychopathology impact maternal mental health, or whether risks vary by child gender. Aims were to (a) Use a longitudinal design to examine whether adolescent psychopathology (depression, disruptive behavior disorder; DBD) predicts recurrence of a depressive episode and depression symptom course in women with a history of recurrent depression; and (b) To test if observed effects vary by child gender. 299 mothers with recurrent major depressive disorder and their adolescent offspring were assessed on 2 occasions, 29 months apart. Maternal depression and offspring psychopathology were assessed using semistructured interview measures. Cross-generational links across time were assessed using structural equation modeling. Analyses were adjusted for past severity of maternal depression. Offspring depression symptoms but not DBD symptoms at baseline predicted future episode recurrence in mothers. Depression symptoms in daughters (β = .16, p = .039) but not sons (β = -.07, p = .461), predicted an increase in maternal depression symptoms across time. Psychopathology in daughters is associated with long-term depressive symptoms in women (mothers) with a history of recurrent depression. Findings highlight the importance of careful assessment and management of mental health problems in adolescents for more effective management of maternal depression. This study suggests that offspring symptoms of depression may be important for the recurrence of maternal depression

  20. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  1. Risk factors of short-term stroke recurrence in patients with minor ischemic cerebrovascular events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kavian Ghandehari

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Assessing the risk of recurrent ischemic events in patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA and minor ischemic stroke (MIS is of a great importance in clinical practice. METHODS: Consecutive patients with TIA or MIS who were visited in Ghaem Hospital, (Mashhad, Iran were enrolled in a prospective cohort study during 2010 to 2011. Diagnosis of TIA or MIS was accomplished by a stroke neurologist. Only those who presented within 24 hours from the onset of symptoms were recruited. MIS was considered as an ischemic stroke with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS < 4. The endpoint of the study was a new ischemic cerebrovascular event or vascular death in 90 days and additionally in 3 days. The decision to admit and type of treatment in each case was left to the discretion of the stroke neurologist. The association between 20 potential factors with recurrent ischemic events in 3 and 90 days was investigated using univariate and multivariate analysis (MVA. RESULTS: 393 TIA patients (238 males and 155 females and 118 MIS patients (77 males and 41 females were enrolled in the study. Stroke occurred in 117 (23.2% patients, TIA in 99 (19.6%, and there was 11 (2.2% vascular deaths within 3 months in the total 511 patients with minor ischemic events. Crescendo TIAs and multiple TIAs were associated with greater risk of stroke in 3 days in a univariate analysis (OR = 5.12, P < 0.001 and (OR = 3.98, P = 0.003, respectively. Patients with index stroke had 11.5% lower risk of recurrent stroke in 3 days than patients with index TIA in multivariate analysis (OR = 0.115, P = 0.039. Diabetes was independently associated with 3 months stroke recurrence in the patients with minor ischemic events (OR = 2.65, P = 0.039. CONCLUSION: Multiple and crescendo TIAs are the main predictors of stroke recurrence, derived from the univariate analysis of the patients with minor ischemic events.   Keywords: Transient Ischemic Attacks, Infarction, Brain

  2. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  3. Recurrence risk of low Apgar score among term singletons: a population-based cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ensing, Sabine; Schaaf, Jelle M.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Mol, Ben W. J.; Ravelli, Anita C. J.

    2014-01-01

    To examine the risk of recurrence of low Apgar score in a subsequent term singleton pregnancy. Population-based cohort study. The Netherlands. A total of 190,725 women with two subsequent singleton term live births between 1999 and 2007. We calculated the recurrence risk of low Apgar score after

  4. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  5. Abacavir use and risk of recurrent myocardial infarction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sabin, Caroline A.; Ryom, Lene; D'Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Hatleberg, Camilla I.; Pradier, Christian; El-Sadr, Wafaa; Kirk, Ole; Weber, Rainer; Phillips, Andrew N.; Mocroft, Amanda; Bonnet, Fabrice; Law, Matthew; de Wit, Stephane; Reiss, Peter; Lundgren, Jens D.

    2018-01-01

    To investigate the association between abacavir (ABC) use and recurrent myocardial infarction (MI) among HIV-positive people with a prior MI. International multicohort collaboration with follow-up from 1999 to 2016. The rate of recurrent MI was described among D:A:D participants who experienced an

  6. Prediction of postpartum blood transfusion – risk factors and recurrence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wikkelsø, Anne J; Hjortøe, Sofie; Gerds, Thomas A

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aim was to find clinically useful risk factors for postpartum transfusion and to assess the joint predictive value in a population of women with a first and second delivery. METHODS: All Danish women with a first and second delivery from January 2001 to September 2009 who gave birt...

  7. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  8. Identifying patients at high risk of tuberculosis recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruxana T Sadikot

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Several studies have been done in relation to recurrence of tuberculosis (TB following completion of treatment. However, recurrence of TB is still a major problem from a public health perspective in high-burden countries, where no special attention is being given to this issue. Disease recurrence is an important indicator of the efficacy of antituberculosis treatment. The rate of recurrence is highly variable and has been estimated to range from 4.9% to 25%. This variability is not only a reflection of regional epidemiology of recurrence but differences in the definitions used by the TB control programs. In addition to treatment failure related to medication adherence, there are several key host factors that are associated with high rates of recurrence. The widely recognized host factors independent of treatment program that predispose to TB recurrence include: malnutrition; human immunodeficiency virus; substance abuse including tobacco use; comorbidity such as diabetes, renal failure and systemic diseases, especially immunosuppressive states; and environmental exposure such as silicosis. With improved understanding of the human genome, proteome, and metabolome, additional host-specific factors that predispose to recurrence are being discovered. Information on temporal and geographical trends of TB cases as well as genotyping might provide further information to enable us to fully understand TB recurrence and discriminate between reactivation and new infection. The recently launched World Health Organization End TB Strategy emphasizes the importance of integrated, patient-centered TB care. Continued improvement in diagnosis, treatment approaches, and defining host-specific factors are needed to fully understand the clinical epidemiological and social determinants of TB recurrence.

  9. Identifying patients at high risk of tuberculosis recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadikot, Ruxana T

    2016-12-01

    Several studies have been done in relation to recurrence of tuberculosis (TB) following completion of treatment. However, recurrence of TB is still a major problem from a public health perspective in high-burden countries, where no special attention is being given to this issue. Disease recurrence is an important indicator of the efficacy of antituberculosis treatment. The rate of recurrence is highly variable and has been estimated to range from 4.9% to 25%. This variability is not only a reflection of regional epidemiology of recurrence but differences in the definitions used by the TB control programs. In addition to treatment failure related to medication adherence, there are several key host factors that are associated with high rates of recurrence. The widely recognized host factors independent of treatment program that predispose to TB recurrence include: malnutrition; human immunodeficiency virus; substance abuse including tobacco use; comorbidity such as diabetes, renal failure and systemic diseases, especially immunosuppressive states; and environmental exposure such as silicosis. With improved understanding of the human genome, proteome, and metabolome, additional host-specific factors that predispose to recurrence are being discovered. Information on temporal and geographical trends of TB cases as well as genotyping might provide further information to enable us to fully understand TB recurrence and discriminate between reactivation and new infection. The recently launched World Health Organization End TB Strategy emphasizes the importance of integrated, patient-centered TB care. Continued improvement in diagnosis, treatment approaches, and defining host-specific factors are needed to fully understand the clinical epidemiological and social determinants of TB recurrence. Copyright © 2016.

  10. The risk factors for recurrence of chronic subdural hematoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohba, Shigeo; Kinoshita, Yu; Nakagawa, Toru; Murakami, Hideki

    2013-01-01

    Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) is a common disease in the elderly, and the recurrence rate of CSDH is reported to range from 2.3 to 33%. We performed a retrospective review of a number of CSDH cases and the potential factors associated with CSDH recurrence. The patient population comprised 112 men and 65 women with a mean age of 74.7 years. We analyzed the following factors: age, sex, antiplatelet and anticoagulant use, hematoma laterality, hematoma thickness, degree of midline shift and internal architecture of the hematoma in the preoperative CT films, use of irrigation, direction of the drainage tube, width of the subdural space, and degree of midline shift and the presence of a massive subdural air collection in the postoperative CT films. Univariate analysis revealed that there was a trend for different rates of recurrence among the different types of hematomas. The presence of a postoperative massive subdural air collection tended to be associated with the recurrence of hematoma. Multivariate analysis revealed that separated hematomas were significantly associated with CSDH recurrence, whereas the presence of postoperative massive subdural air collection tended to be associated with hematoma recurrence. Neither univariate nor multivariate analysis could demonstrate an association between the direction of the drainage tube and the recurrence of CSDH.

  11. Outcome and risk factors of recurrence after thoracoscopic bullectomy in young adults with primary spontaneous pneumothorax.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, Takashi; Takahashi, Yusuke; Uehara, Hirofumi; Matsutani, Noriyuki; Kawamura, Masafumi

    2017-07-01

    To investigate the risk factors of recurrence of pneumothorax following thoracoscopic bullectomy in young adults. Between January, 2005 and September, 2015, 167 patients aged ≤40 years underwent initial thoracoscopic bullectomy for primary spontaneous pneumothorax (PSP) at our hospital. Recurrence-free probability was calculated from the date of surgery to recurrence or last follow-up, using the Kaplan-Meier method. Sixteen (9.6%) of the 167 patients suffered a recurrence (collective total, 16 recurrences). The recurrence-free intervals were 3-107 months (median 25.8 months), and the 5-year recurrence-free probability was 85.9%. Multivariate Cox analysis demonstrated that age ≤23 years (p = 0.029) and a history of ipsilateral pneumothorax before surgery (p = 0.029) were significantly associated with higher risk of recurrence. The 5-year recurrence-free probability was 72.3% for patients aged ≤23 years and a history of ipsilateral pneumothorax before surgery and 94.1% for those with neither of these factors (p = 0.001). Recurrence developed within 3 years after surgery in 14 of the 16 patients. Patients ≤23 years of age with a history of ipsilateral pneumothorax before surgery are at significantly high risk of its recurrence, frequently within 3 years; thus, the risk of postoperative recurrence of a pneumothorax must be kept in mind.

  12. The risk of recurrent thromboembolic disorders in patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism: new scenarios and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prandoni, Paolo; Barbar, Sofia; Milan, Marta; Vedovetto, Valentina; Pesavento, Raffaele

    2014-01-01

    The risk of recurrent thromboembolic disorders in the 10-year period following an episode of unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) ranges between 30 and 50%, the rate being higher in patients with primary deep venous thrombosis (DVT) than in those with primary pulmonary embolism (PE). The clinical presentation with primary PE increases by more than three times the risk of a new PE episode over that with isolated DVT. Baseline parameters that increase this risk are the proximal location of DVT, obesity, old age and male sex, whereas the role of thrombophilia is controversial. An increasing role is played by post-baseline parameters such as the ultrasound assessment of residual vein thrombosis and the determination of D-dimer. While the latest international guidelines suggest indefinite anticoagulation for most patients with the first episode of unprovoked VTE, new scenarios are being offered by the identification of risk stratification models and by strategies that have the potential to help identify patients in whom anticoagulation can be safely discontinued, such as those that incorporate the assessment of D-dimer and residual vein thrombosis. New opportunities are being offered by low-dose aspirin, which has recently been reported to decrease by more than 30% the risk of recurrent events without increasing the bleeding risk; and especially by a few emerging anti-Xa and anti-IIa oral compounds, which are likely to induce fewer haemorrhagic complications than vitamin K antagonists while preserving at least the same effectiveness, do not require laboratory monitoring, and can be used immediately after the thrombotic episode. © 2013.

  13. Examining Fall Recurrence Risk of Homebound Hispanic Older Adults Receiving Home Care Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solis, Guillermina R; Champion, Jane Dimmitt

    2017-03-01

    Unintentional falls and injuries is a major problem among older adults and the fourth cause of death in the United States. A previous fall event doubles the risk of recurrence and lessens the person's quality of life. Hispanic older adults have higher rates of disability and lower independent functioning due to poor medical health and risk for fall recurrence. Most fall studies focus on fall risk with few studies on fall recurrence in older adults receiving home health care services unrelated to fall incident. A descriptive pilot study of 30 homebound Hispanic older adults receiving home care services who reported a fall within 3 months was conducted by a multidisciplinary team to evaluate risk of fall recurrence. A heightened risk for fall recurrence was identified with high number of chronic illnesses, high intake of medications, vision problems, and prevalence of urinary incontinence. Findings highlight significant number of intrinsic factors for fall risk recurrence and injuries in a Hispanic older adults population that is homebound and receiving home care services. A multidisciplinary evaluation and culturally appropriate interventions to lessen the risk of fall recurrence are recommended.

  14. Prothrombotic factors do not increase the risk of recurrent ischemic events after cryptogenic stroke at young age: the FUTURE study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schellekens, Mijntje M I; van Alebeek, Mayte E; Arntz, Renate M; Synhaeve, Nathalie E; Maaijwee, Noortje A M M; Schoonderwaldt, Hennie C; van der Vlugt, Maureen J; van Dijk, Ewoud J; Rutten-Jacobs, Loes C A; de Leeuw, Frank-Erik

    2018-05-01

    The role of hypercoagulable states and preceding infections in the etiology of young stroke and their role in developing recurrent ischemic events remains unclear. Our aim is to determine the prevalence of these conditions in patients with cryptogenic stroke at young age and to assess the long-term risk of recurrent ischemic events in patients with and without a hypercoagulable state or a recent pre-stroke infection with Borrelia or Syphilis. We prospectively included patients with a first-ever transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke, aged 18-50, admitted to our hospital between 1995 and 2010. A retrospective analysis was conducted of prothrombotic factors and preceding infections. Outcome was recurrent ischemic events. Prevalence of prothrombotic factors did not significantly differ between patients with a cryptogenic stroke and with an identified cause (24/120 (20.0%) and 32/174 (18.4%) respectively). In patients with a cryptogenic stroke the long-term risk [mean follow-up of 8.9 years (SD 4.6)] of any recurrent ischemic event or recurrent cerebral ischemia did not significantly differ between patients with and without a hypercoagulable state or a recent infection. In patients with a cryptogenic stroke 15-years cumulative risk of any recurrent ischemic event was 24 and 23% in patients with and without any prothrombotic factor respectively. The prevalence of prothrombotic factors and preceding infections did not significantly differ between stroke patients with a cryptogenic versus an identified cause of stroke and neither is significantly associated with an increased risk of recurrent ischemic events after cryptogenic stroke.

  15. Gender Differences in Risk Factors for Single and Recurrent Falls Among the Community-Dwelling Elderly

    OpenAIRE

    Yu Mei O; Fatima El Fakiri

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify gender differences in risk factors of fall accidents among older people, and whether these factors differ between single and recurrent fallers. A total of 4,426 individuals aged ≥65 years from two large-scale health surveys provided data. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify risk factors and to determine the risk model for falling and recurrent falling in men and ...

  16. Psychological stress as a risk factor for postoperative keloid recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furtado, Fabianne; Hochman, Bernardo; Farber, Paulo Luiz; Muller, Marisa Campio; Hayashi, Lilian Fukusima; Ferreira, Lydia Masako

    2012-04-01

    To investigate psychological stress on the prognosis of the postoperative recurrence of keloids. Patients with keloids (n=25), candidates for surgical resection and postoperative radiotherapy, had their psychological stress evaluated on the day before the surgical procedure. The parameters evaluated were pain and itching (Visual Numerical Scale), quality of life (Questionnaire QualiFibro/Cirurgia Plástica-UNIFESP), perceived stress (Perceived Stress Scale), depression and anxiety (Hospital Depression and Anxiety Scale), salivary cortisol and minimum and maximum galvanic skin responses (GSR) at rest and under stress (i.e., while the questionnaires were being filled out). Patients were evaluated during the 3rd, 6th, 9th and 12th months of postoperative care. During each return visit, two experts classified the lesions as non-recurrent and recurrent. The recurrence group presented the greatest values in GSR during a stressful situation. The chance of recurrence increased by 34% at each increase of 1000 arbitrary units in maximum GSR during stress. Psychological stress influenced the recurrence of keloids. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Human papillomavirus (HPV) persistence and HPV 31 predict the risk of recurrence in high-grade vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogani, Giorgio; Martinelli, Fabio; Ditto, Antonino; Taverna, Francesca; Lombardo, Claudia; Signorelli, Mauro; Chiappa, Valentina; Leone Roberti Maggiore, Umberto; Fontanella, Caterina; Sabatucci, Ilaria; Borghi, Chiara; Recalcati, Dario; Indini, Alice; Lorusso, Domenica; Raspagliesi, Francesco

    2017-03-01

    High-grade vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia (vaginal HSIL) represents an uncommon entity. Here, we sought to identify predictors for recurrence and risk factor for developing genital cancers after primary treatment for vaginal HSIL. Data of consecutive 5104 women who had human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA test were searched for identify women with histological confirmed vaginal HSIL. Disease-free interval and the risk of developing HPV-related gynecological cancers were assessed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models. Overall, 77 patients were included. After a mean (SD) follow-up of 69.3 (33.0) months, 11 (14%) and 4 (5%) patients experienced vaginal HSIL recurrence and the occurrence of HPV-related gynecological cancers, respectively. Via multivariate analysis factors predicting for vaginal HSIL recurrence were infection from HPV31 at diagnosis (HR: 5.0 (95%CI:1.17, 21.3); p=0.03) and persistence of HPV infection after treatment (HR: 7.0 (95%CI:1.54, 31.6); p=0.01). Additionally, patients who had LASER ablation experienced a trend toward a lower risk of recurrence in comparison to medical treatment (HR: 0.20 (95%CI:0.03, 1.09); p=0.06). Considering the occurrence of HPV-related gynecological cancers, we observed that no factors independently correlated with this risk; while, a trend towards higher risk was observed for women with HIV infection (HR:16.4 (95%CI:0.90, 300.1); p=0.06) and persistence of HPV infection (HR: 13.3 (95%CI:0.76, 230.2); p=0.07). Patients affected by vaginal HSIL experienced a relatively high risk of recurrence. Persistence of HPV after treatment and pretreatment HPV-31 infection predicts for high-grade vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia recurrence. Further investigations are warranted in order to corroborate our data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Recurrence of Subdural Haematoma in a Population-Based Cohort - Risks and Predictive Factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Linnea; Gørtz, Sanne; Wohlfahrt, Jan

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To estimate the risks of and identify predictors for recurrent subdural haematoma in surgically and conservatively treated patients. METHODS: The cohort comprised all individuals diagnosed with a first-time subdural hematoma in Denmark 1996-2011. Information on potential predictors...... was retrieved from the Danish health registers. Cumulative recurrence risks were estimated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Rate ratios (RR) were estimated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Among 10,158 individuals with a subdural hematoma, 1,555 had a recurrent event. The cumulative risk of recurrent...... subdural hematoma was 9% at 4 weeks after the primary bleeding, increasing to and stabilising at 14% after one year. Predictors associated with recurrence were: Male sex (RR 1.60, 95% CI:1.43-1.80), older age (>70 years compared to 20-49 years; RR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.21-1.65), alcohol addiction (RR 1.20, 95...

  19. Smoking, not human papilloma virus infection, is a risk factor for recurrence of sinonasal inverted papilloma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roh, Hwan-Jung; Mun, Sue Jean; Cho, Kyu-Sup; Hong, Sung-Lyong

    2016-01-01

    The recurrence rate of sinonasal inverted papillomas (SNIP) is 15-20%. However, few studies have investigated patient-dependent factors related to recurrence of SNIPs. To analyze risk factors, including human papilloma virus (HPV) infection and smoking, as well as other factors, for recurrence of SNIPs. Fifty-four patients who were diagnosed with SNIP and underwent surgery were enrolled: 39 men and 15 women, with the mean age of 54.0 years. Their mean follow-up was 40.6 months. Demographics and information about the history of smoking, previous surgery, tumor extent, follow-up, and recurrence were reviewed retrospectively. Those patients whose tumors were associated with malignant transformation were excluded in this study. HPV detection and genotyping in the tumor specimens were performed with the HPV DNA chip, a polymerase chain reaction-based DNA microarray system. Seven patients (13.0%) had recurrence, with a mean time to recurrence of 39.8 months. Recurrence rates in T1, T2, T3, and T4 of the Krouse staging system were 0% (0/4), 8.3% (2/24), 17.4% (4/23), and 33.3% (1/3), respectively (p > 0.5). Eight patients (14.8%) were positive for HPV DNA. All of these patients belonged to the group without recurrence (p > 0.5). However, recurrence rates according to HPV DNA positivity were not statistically different (0% versus 15.2%). Three (42.9%) in the group with recurrence and four (8.5%) in the group without recurrence were smokers (p < 0.5). Smoking was associated with recurrence of SNIP. However, HPV infection is not a recurrence of SNIP risk factor.

  20. Recurrent transient ischaemic attack and early risk of stroke: data from the PROMAPA study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purroy, Francisco; Jiménez Caballero, Pedro Enrique; Gorospe, Arantza; Torres, María José; Alvarez-Sabin, José; Santamarina, Estevo; Martínez-Sánchez, Patricia; Cánovas, David; Freijo, María José; Egido, Jose Antonio; Ramírez-Moreno, Jose M; Alonso-Arias, Arantza; Rodríguez-Campello, Ana; Casado, Ignacio; Delgado-Mederos, Raquel; Martí-Fàbregas, Joan; Fuentes, Blanca; Silva, Yolanda; Quesada, Helena; Cardona, Pere; Morales, Ana; de la Ossa, Natalia Pérez; García-Pastor, Antonio; Arenillas, Juan F; Segura, Tomas; Jiménez, Carmen; Masjuán, Jaime

    2013-06-01

    Many guidelines recommend urgent intervention for patients with two or more transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) within 7 days (multiple TIAs) to reduce the early risk of stroke. To determine whether all patients with multiple TIAs have the same high early risk of stroke. Between April 2008 and December 2009, we included 1255 consecutive patients with a TIA from 30 Spanish stroke centres (PROMAPA study). We prospectively recorded clinical characteristics. We also determined the short-term risk of stroke (at 7 and 90 days). Aetiology was categorised using the TOAST (Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment) classification. Clinical variables and extracranial vascular imaging were available and assessed in 1137/1255 (90.6%) patients. 7-Day and 90-day stroke risk were 2.6% and 3.8%, respectively. Large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA) was confirmed in 190 (16.7%) patients. Multiple TIAs were seen in 274 (24.1%) patients. Duration <1 h (OR=2.97, 95% CI 2.20 to 4.01, p<0.001), LAA (OR=1.92, 95% CI 1.35 to 2.72, p<0.001) and motor weakness (OR=1.37, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.81, p=0.031) were independent predictors of multiple TIAs. The subsequent risk of stroke in these patients at 7 and 90 days was significantly higher than the risk after a single TIA (5.9% vs 1.5%, p<0.001 and 6.8% vs 3.0%, respectively). In the logistic regression model, among patients with multiple TIAs, no variables remained as independent predictors of stroke recurrence. According to our results, multiple TIAs within 7 days are associated with a greater subsequent risk of stroke than after a single TIA. Nevertheless, we found no independent predictor of stroke recurrence among these patients.

  1. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  2. Risk factors for plantar foot ulcer recurrence in neuropathic diabetic patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waaijman, Roelof; de Haart, Mirjam; Arts, Mark L. J.; Wever, Daniel; Verlouw, Anke J. W. E.; Nollet, Frans; Bus, Sicco A.

    2014-01-01

    Recurrence of plantar foot ulcers is a common and major problem in diabetes but not well understood. Foot biomechanics and patient behavior may be important. The aim was to identify risk factors for ulcer recurrence and to establish targets for ulcer prevention. As part of a footwear trial, 171

  3. Long-term risk of recurrent vascular events after young stroke: The FUTURE study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rutten-Jacobs, L.C.A.; Maaijwee, N.A.M.M.; Arntz, R.M.; Schoonderwaldt, H.C.; Dorresteijn, L.D.A.; Vlugt, M.J. van der; Dijk, E.J. van; Leeuw, F.E. de

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Long-term data on recurrent vascular events after young stroke are limited. Our objective was to examine the long-term risk of recurrent vascular events after young stroke. METHODS: We prospectively included 724 consecutive patients with a first-ever transient ischemic attack (TIA),

  4. Risk Factors for Recurrence of Symptomatic Common Bile Duct Stones after Cholecystectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju Hyun Oak

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The recurrence of CBD stone is still observed in a considerable number of patients. The study was to evaluate the risk factors for recurrence of symptomatic CBD stone in patients who underwent cholecystectomy after the removal of CBD stone. Methods. The medical records of patients who underwent removal of CBD stone with subsequent cholecystectomy were reviewed. The risk factors for the recurrence of symptomatic CBD stone were compared between the recurrence and the nonrecurrence group. Results. The mean follow-up period was 40.6 months. The recurrence of symptomatic CBD stones was defined as the detection of bile duct stones no sooner than 6 months after complete clearance of CBD stones, based on symptoms or signs of biliary complication. 144 patients (68 males, 47.2% were finally enrolled and their mean age was 59.8 (range: 26~86 years. The recurrence of CBD stone occurred in 15 patients (10.4%. The mean period until first recurrence was 25.9 months. The presence of type 1 or 2 periampullary diverticulum and multiple CBD stones were the independent risk factors. Conclusion. For the patients with type 1 or 2 periampullary diverticulum or multiple CBD stones, careful followup is needed for the risk in recurrence of symptomatic CBD stone.

  5. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  6. Comparative rate and risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture during different surgical procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Yu. Pushkar

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective – to identify the major risk factors leading to worse results of surgical treatment in patients with urethral stricture.Subjects and methods. Two hundred and forty-eight patients with urethral stricture underwent different surgical interventions: internal optical urethrotomy (IOU for strictures of different portions of the urethra in 157 patients (the operation was made once in 121 patients, twice in 24 patients, and thrice or more in 12; replacement urethroplasty using a buccal mucosa graft for strictures of the anterior urethra in 46 patients; Turner-Warwick’s anastomotic urethroplasty modified by Webster for strictures (distraction defects of the posterior urethra in 45 patients. The results of surgical treatment were studied using urethrography, uroflowmetry, urethrocystoscopy, the international prostate symptom score, quality of life (QoL questionnaire, and the international index of erectile function (IIEF questionnaire. The role of risk factors for postoperative recurrent urethral stricture was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses.Results. The rate of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU was 66.9 % (59.5, 87.5, and 100 % after the first, second, third or more subsequent operations, respectively; 12.1 % after all types of urethroplasty, 15.2 % after augmentation urethroplasty, and 8.9 % after anastomotic urethroplasty. The major risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU were recognized to be the location of urethral stricture in the penile or bulbomembranous portions, a urethral stricture length of > 1 cm, severe urethral lumen narrowing, and performance of 2 or more operations; those after augmentation urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, a stricture length of > 4 cm, lichen sclerosus, and smoking; those after anastomotic urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, smoking, and a stricture length of > 4 cm.Conclusion. The results of the investigation have shown that only

  7. Comparative rate and risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture during different surgical procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Yu. Pushkar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective – to identify the major risk factors leading to worse results of surgical treatment in patients with urethral stricture.Subjects and methods. Two hundred and forty-eight patients with urethral stricture underwent different surgical interventions: internal optical urethrotomy (IOU for strictures of different portions of the urethra in 157 patients (the operation was made once in 121 patients, twice in 24 patients, and thrice or more in 12; replacement urethroplasty using a buccal mucosa graft for strictures of the anterior urethra in 46 patients; Turner-Warwick’s anastomotic urethroplasty modified by Webster for strictures (distraction defects of the posterior urethra in 45 patients. The results of surgical treatment were studied using urethrography, uroflowmetry, urethrocystoscopy, the international prostate symptom score, quality of life (QoL questionnaire, and the international index of erectile function (IIEF questionnaire. The role of risk factors for postoperative recurrent urethral stricture was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses.Results. The rate of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU was 66.9 % (59.5, 87.5, and 100 % after the first, second, third or more subsequent operations, respectively; 12.1 % after all types of urethroplasty, 15.2 % after augmentation urethroplasty, and 8.9 % after anastomotic urethroplasty. The major risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU were recognized to be the location of urethral stricture in the penile or bulbomembranous portions, a urethral stricture length of > 1 cm, severe urethral lumen narrowing, and performance of 2 or more operations; those after augmentation urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, a stricture length of > 4 cm, lichen sclerosus, and smoking; those after anastomotic urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, smoking, and a stricture length of > 4 cm.Conclusion. The results of the investigation have shown that only

  8. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  9. Recurrent Tricuspid Insufficiency: Is the Surgical Repair Technique a Risk Factor?

    OpenAIRE

    Kara, Ibrahim; Koksal, Cengiz; Cakalagaoglu, Canturk; Sahin, Muslum; Yanartas, Mehmet; Ay, Yasin; Demir, Serdar

    2013-01-01

    This study compares the medium-term results of De Vega, modified De Vega, and ring annuloplasty techniques for the correction of tricuspid insufficiency and investigates the risk factors for recurrent grades 3 and 4 tricuspid insufficiency after repair.

  10. Pathologic margin involvement and the risk of recurrence in patients treated with breast-conserving therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gage, Irene; Nixon, Asa J.; Schnitt, Stuart J.; Recht, Abram; Gelman, Rebecca; Silver, Barbara; Connolly, James L.; Harris, Jay R.

    1995-01-01

    PURPOSE: To assess the relationship between microscopic margin status and recurrence after breast-conserving therapy for tumors with or without an extensive intraductal component (EIC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: During the years 1968 to 1986, 1865 women with unilateral clinical stage I or II breast cancer were treated with radiation therapy for breast conservation. Of these, 340 received ≥60 Gy to the tumor bed and had margins that were evaluable on review of their pathologic slides; these constitute the study population. The median follow-up was 109 months. All available slides were reviewed by one of the study pathologists (SS, JC). Final radial margins of excision were classified as negative >1 mm (no invasive or ductal carcinoma in-situ within 1 mm of the inked margin), negative ≤1 mm (any carcinoma ≤1 mm of the inked margin but not at ink) or positive (any carcinoma at the inked margin). A focally positive margin was defined as any invasive or in-situ carcinoma at the margin in ≤3 LPF. The extent of positivity was not evaluable in 2 patients and the distance of the tumor from the margin was not evaluable in 48 patients with a negative margin. Thirty-nine percent of EIC-negative and 46% of EIC-positive patients underwent a re-excision and, for these, the final margin analyzed was from the re-excised specimen. The median dose to the tumor bed was 63 Gy for patients with positive margins and 62 Gy for patients with negative margins. Recurrent disease was classified as ipsilateral breast recurrence (IBR) or distant metastasis/regional nodal failure (DM/RNF). RESULTS: Five year crude rates for the first site of recurrence were calculated for 340 patients evaluable at 5 years. Results were tabulated separately for all patients, EIC-negative and EIC-positive. All p-values tested for differences in the distribution of sites of first failure. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of ipsilateral breast recurrence is equally low for patients with close (≤1 mm) or negative (>1 mm

  11. Recurrence risk of congenital anomalies - the impact of paternal, social, and environmental factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basso, Olga; Olsen, Jørn; Christensen, Kaare

    1999-01-01

    was associated with a lower recurrence risk (OR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.45, 0.99, for the middle status group and OR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.30, 0.81, for the highest status group), independently of partner change. A rise in social status between the two births was marginally associated with a decline in the recurrence risk...

  12. Risk Factors for the Postoperative Recurrence of Instability After Arthroscopic Bankart Repair in Athletes

    OpenAIRE

    Nakagawa, Shigeto; Mae, Tatsuo; Sato, Seira; Okimura, Shinichiro; Kuroda, Miki

    2017-01-01

    Background: Several risk factors for the postoperative recurrence of instability after arthroscopic Bankart repair have been reported, but there have been few detailed investigations of the specific risk factors in relation to the type of sport. Purpose: This study investigated the postoperative recurrence of instability after arthroscopic Bankart repair without additional reinforcement procedures in competitive athletes, including athletes with a large glenoid defect. The purpose of this stu...

  13. Structural genomic variation as risk factor for idiopathic recurrent miscarriage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nagirnaja, Liina; Palta, Priit; Kasak, Laura

    2014-01-01

    Recurrent miscarriage (RM) is a multifactorial disorder with acknowledged genetic heritability that affects ∼3% of couples aiming at childbirth. As copy number variants (CNVs) have been shown to contribute to reproductive disease susceptibility, we aimed to describe genome-wide profile of CNVs an...

  14. Gender Differences in Risk Factors for Single and Recurrent Falls Among the Community-Dwelling Elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Mei O

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to identify gender differences in risk factors of fall accidents among older people, and whether these factors differ between single and recurrent fallers. A total of 4,426 individuals aged ≥65 years from two large-scale health surveys provided data. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify risk factors and to determine the risk model for falling and recurrent falling in men and women separately. Three major risk factors for falling regardless of gender or fall history are fear of falling, limitations in activities of daily living (ADL, and age ≥75 years. Fear of falling remains one of the common modifiable risk factors. Among those without a fall history, the use of sedatives or tranquilizers increases the risk of falling. Regarding gender differences, ADL limitations and fear of falling appear to be stronger fall risk factors for men than for women. Among women, alcohol use and educational level are significant risk factors for falling, while loneliness is associated with recurrent falling. Men with fear of falling or ADL limitations are at higher risk to have a recurrent fall accident than women with these conditions. Having a visual impairment or living with someone is associated with recurrent falling among men. Our findings emphasize the importance of multifactorial fall interventions, taking into account a variety of subgroup characteristics such as gender and fall history.

  15. Suicidal risk factors of recurrent major depression in Han Chinese women.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuzhang Zhu

    Full Text Available The relationship between suicidality and major depression is complex. Socio- demography, clinical features, comorbidity, clinical symptoms, and stressful life events are important factors influencing suicide in major depression, but these are not well defined. Thus, the aim of the present study was to assess the associations between the above-mentioned factors and suicide ideation, suicide plan, and suicide attempt in 6008 Han Chinese women with recurrent major depression (MD. Patients with any suicidality had significantly more MD symptoms, a significantly greater number of stressful life events, a positive family history of MD, a greater number of episodes, a significant experience of melancholia, and earlier age of onset. Comorbidity with dysthymia, generalized anxiety disorder (GAD, social phobia, and animal phobia was seen in suicidal patients. The present findings indicate that specific factors act to increase the likelihood of suicide in MD. Our results may help improve the clinical assessment of suicide risk in depressed patients, especially for women.

  16. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  17. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  18. Recurrent endometrial cancer: patterns of recurrent disease and assessment of prognosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sohaib, S.A. [Department of Radiology, Royal Marsden Hospital, London (United Kingdom); Houghton, S.L. [Department of Radiology, Royal Marsden Hospital, London (United Kingdom); Meroni, R. [Department of Academic Radiology, St Bartholomew' s Hospital, London (United Kingdom); Rockall, A.G. [Department of Academic Radiology, St Bartholomew' s Hospital, London (United Kingdom); Blake, P. [Department of Gynaecological Oncology, Royal Marsden Hospital, London (United Kingdom); Reznek, R.H. [Department of Academic Radiology, St Bartholomew' s Hospital, London (United Kingdom)

    2007-01-15

    Aim: To evaluate patterns of disease and identify factors predicting outcome in patients presenting with recurrent endometrial adenocarcinoma following primary surgery. Materials and methods: A retrospective review was performed of the imaging and clinical data in 86 patients (median age 66 years, range 42-88 years) presenting with recurrent endometrial adenocarcinoma following primary surgery. Results: Following primary surgery recurrent disease occurred within 2 years in 64% and within 3 years in 87%. Relapse was seen within lymph nodes in 41 (46%), the vagina in 36 (42%) the peritoneum in 24 (28%) and the lung in 21 (24%). Unusual sites of disease included spleen, pancreas, rectum, muscle and brain. Univariate survival analysis showed the factors significant for poor outcome were: multiple sites of disease, liver and splenic disease, haematogenous, peritoneal and nodal spread, poorly differentiated tumour, and early relapse. The presence of disease within the vagina, bladder or lung was not associated with poor prognosis. Multivariate analysis identified multiple sites of disease, liver and splenic metastases to be independent predictors of poor outcome. Conclusion: The most frequently observed sites of relapse are: lymph nodes, vagina, peritoneum and lung. Significant predictors of poor outcome in recurrent disease are multiple sites of disease and liver and splenic metastases.

  19. Pharmacokinetic Tumor Heterogeneity as a Prognostic Biomarker for Classifying Breast Cancer Recurrence Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahrooghy, Majid; Ashraf, Ahmed B; Daye, Dania; McDonald, Elizabeth S; Rosen, Mark; Mies, Carolyn; Feldman, Michael; Kontos, Despina

    2015-06-01

    Heterogeneity in cancer can affect response to therapy and patient prognosis. Histologic measures have classically been used to measure heterogeneity, although a reliable noninvasive measurement is needed both to establish baseline risk of recurrence and monitor response to treatment. Here, we propose using spatiotemporal wavelet kinetic features from dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging to quantify intratumor heterogeneity in breast cancer. Tumor pixels are first partitioned into homogeneous subregions using pharmacokinetic measures. Heterogeneity wavelet kinetic (HetWave) features are then extracted from these partitions to obtain spatiotemporal patterns of the wavelet coefficients and the contrast agent uptake. The HetWave features are evaluated in terms of their prognostic value using a logistic regression classifier with genetic algorithm wrapper-based feature selection to classify breast cancer recurrence risk as determined by a validated gene expression assay. Receiver operating characteristic analysis and area under the curve (AUC) are computed to assess classifier performance using leave-one-out cross validation. The HetWave features outperform other commonly used features (AUC = 0.88 HetWave versus 0.70 standard features). The combination of HetWave and standard features further increases classifier performance (AUCs 0.94). The rate of the spatial frequency pattern over the pharmacokinetic partitions can provide valuable prognostic information. HetWave could be a powerful feature extraction approach for characterizing tumor heterogeneity, providing valuable prognostic information.

  20. Recurrence of Subdural Haematoma in a Population-Based Cohort - Risks and Predictive Factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linnea Schmidt

    Full Text Available To estimate the risks of and identify predictors for recurrent subdural haematoma in surgically and conservatively treated patients.The cohort comprised all individuals diagnosed with a first-time subdural hematoma in Denmark 1996-2011. Information on potential predictors was retrieved from the Danish health registers. Cumulative recurrence risks were estimated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Rate ratios (RR were estimated using Poisson regression.Among 10,158 individuals with a subdural hematoma, 1,555 had a recurrent event. The cumulative risk of recurrent subdural hematoma was 9% at 4 weeks after the primary bleeding, increasing to and stabilising at 14% after one year. Predictors associated with recurrence were: Male sex (RR 1.60, 95% CI:1.43-1.80, older age (>70 years compared to 20-49 years; RR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.21-1.65, alcohol addiction (RR 1.20, 95% CI:1.04-1.37, surgical treatment (RR 1.76, 95% CI:1.58-1.96, trauma diagnoses (RR 1.14, 95% CI:1.03-1.27, and diabetes mellitus (RR 1.40, 95% CI:1.11-1.74. Out of a selected combination of risk factors, the highest cumulative 1-year recurrence risks for subdural hematoma of 25% (compared to 14% for all patients was found in surgically treated males with diabetes mellitus.The recurrence risk of subdural hematoma is largely limited to the first year. Patient characteristics including co-morbidities greatly influence the recurrence risk of SDH, suggesting that individualized prognostic guidance and follow-up is needed.

  1. Recurrence of Subdural Haematoma in a Population-Based Cohort – Risks and Predictive Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Linnea; Gørtz, Sanne; Wohlfahrt, Jan; Melbye, Mads; Munch, Tina Noergaard

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To estimate the risks of and identify predictors for recurrent subdural haematoma in surgically and conservatively treated patients. Methods The cohort comprised all individuals diagnosed with a first-time subdural hematoma in Denmark 1996–2011. Information on potential predictors was retrieved from the Danish health registers. Cumulative recurrence risks were estimated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Rate ratios (RR) were estimated using Poisson regression. Results Among 10,158 individuals with a subdural hematoma, 1,555 had a recurrent event. The cumulative risk of recurrent subdural hematoma was 9% at 4 weeks after the primary bleeding, increasing to and stabilising at 14% after one year. Predictors associated with recurrence were: Male sex (RR 1.60, 95% CI:1.43–1.80), older age (>70 years compared to 20–49 years; RR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.21–1.65), alcohol addiction (RR 1.20, 95% CI:1.04–1.37), surgical treatment (RR 1.76, 95% CI:1.58–1.96), trauma diagnoses (RR 1.14, 95% CI:1.03–1.27), and diabetes mellitus (RR 1.40, 95% CI:1.11–1.74). Out of a selected combination of risk factors, the highest cumulative 1-year recurrence risks for subdural hematoma of 25% (compared to 14% for all patients) was found in surgically treated males with diabetes mellitus. Conclusions The recurrence risk of subdural hematoma is largely limited to the first year. Patient characteristics including co-morbidities greatly influence the recurrence risk of SDH, suggesting that individualized prognostic guidance and follow-up is needed. PMID:26465602

  2. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  3. Advanced age is a risk factor for proximal adenoma recurrence following colonoscopy and polypectomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pommergaard, H C; Burcharth, J; Rosenberg, J.

    2016-01-01

    a randomized clinical trial that showed no effect of aspirin-calcitriol-calcium treatment on colorectal adenoma recurrence. Patients at high risk of colorectal cancer who had one or more sporadic colorectal adenomas removed during colonoscopy were followed up for 3 years. Independent risk factors associated...... with recurrence and characteristics of recurrent adenomas were investigated in a generalized linear model. Results After 3 years, the recurrence rate was 25·8 per cent in 427 patients. For younger subjects (aged 50 years or less), the recurrence rate was 19 per cent; 18 of 20 recurrent adenomas were located...... in the distal part of the colon. For older subjects (aged over 70 years), the recurrence rate was 35 per cent, and 16 of 25 recurrent adenomas were in the proximal colon. Age (odds ratio (OR) 1·04, 95 per cent c.i. 1·01 to 1·07) and number of adenomas (OR 1·27, 1·11 to 1·46) at the time of inclusion...

  4. Risk factors for chronic and recurrent otitis media-a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Xu, Min; Zhang, Jin; Zeng, Lingxia; Wang, Yanfei; Zheng, Qing Yin

    2014-01-01

    Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM) and recurrent otitis media (ROM) have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database) from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs) could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13-1.64; P = 0.001). An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13-13.89; Pmedia (AOM)/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06-116.44; P = 0.04). Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.89 P = 0.04). Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11-13.15; P = 0.03). Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria.

  5. The outcome and risk factors for recurrence and extended hospitalization of secondary spontaneous pneumothorax.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Yoshitaro; Suzuki, Yohei; Demura, Ryo; Kawai, Hideki

    2018-03-01

    Secondary spontaneous pneumothorax (SSP) is difficult to treat by itself and due to its association with serious underlying diseases. It has a high rate of recurrence and often requires extended hospitalization. Therefore, we evaluated the outcome and risk factors associated with recurrence and extended hospitalization. We retrospectively examined 61 patients with SSP, and evaluated the patients' characteristics, underlying diseases, introduction of home oxygen therapy, Brinkman index, and X-ray imaging findings to determine the risk factors for recurrence and extended hospitalization. There were 28 patients (46.0%) with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 8 (13.1%) with interstitial pneumonia, 16 (26.2%) with massive emphysema, and 9 (14.8%) with other diseases. Adhesion and mediastinal shift visualized by X-ray imaging were observed in 37 (37.9%) and 25 patients (40.1%), respectively. Recurrence occurred in 25 patients (40.9%) and the average hospitalization duration was 14.5 days (±11.2). A multivariate analysis showed that adhesion on X-ray imaging was a significant risk factor for recurrence (odds ratio 4.90, 95% confidence interval 1.38-21.44) and mediastinal shift on X-ray imaging was a significant risk factor for extended hospitalization (odds ratio 6.05, 95% confidence interval 1.44-31.06). Findings from X-ray imaging, and not underlying diseases, are risk factors for recurrence and extended hospitalization.

  6. [On the recurrence risk with partial larynx resections (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flach, M

    1978-06-01

    28 cases of recurrences after 127 vertical and horizontal partial larynx resections (22 per cent) were analysed. Unfavourable preconditions for partial resections are the affliction of the ary cartilage and arrest of vocal chord movility. The hemiresections according to Hautant have the heighest recidivation percentage (40 per cent) judging from the observations available. Radical operations after failured partial resections are uncertain as to their prognoses.

  7. [Clinical scores for the risk of recurrent VTED and for the relationship cancer-VTED].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junod, Alain

    2016-02-17

    Clinical scores related to the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolic disease (VTED), to the relationship between cancer and VTED (risk of development of VTED, risk of recurrent VTED, prognosis of pulmonary embolism) and to the risk of cancer following VTED are analysed and commented upon. Although they most often rely on appropriate methodology and are often based on a large number of subjects, they unfortunately provide information that is not necessarily useful for the care of patients. Their use should be considered only when positive impact studies are published.

  8. Image-defined Risk Factors Correlate with Surgical Radicality and Local Recurrence in Patients with Neuroblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, A; Erichsen, M; Stehr, M; Hubertus, J; Bergmann, F; Kammer, B; von Schweinitz, D

    2016-04-01

    Neuroblastoma is the second most common solid pediatric tumor and the most common cancer to be detected in children younger than 12 months of age. To date, 2 different staging systems describe the extent of the disease: the International Neuroblastoma Staging System (INSS) and the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group Staging System (INRGSS). The INRGSS-system is characterized by the presence or absence of so called image-defined risk factors (IDRFs), which are described as surgical risk factors. We hypothesized that IDRFs correlate with surgical complications, surgical radicality, local recurrence and overall survival (OS). Between 2003 and 2010, 102 patients had neuroblastoma surgery performed in our department. We analyzed medical records for IDRF-status and above named data. 16 patients were IDRF-negative, whereas 86 patients showed one or more IDRF. Intra- or postoperative complications have been reported in 21 patients (21%). 19 of them showed one or more IDRF and 2 patients were IDRF-negative (p=n.s.). Patients who suffered from intra- or postoperative complications demonstrated a decreased OS (p=0.011). Statistical analysis revealed an inverse correlation between the extent of macroscopical removal and IDRF-status (p=0.001). Furthermore, the number of IDRFs were associated with a decreased likelihood of radical tumor resection (p<0.001). 19 patients had local recurrence; all of them were IDRF-positive (p=0.037). Pediatric surgeons should consider IDRFs as a useful tool for risk assessment and therefore planning for neuroblastoma surgery. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  9. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  10. [Clinical features, risk factors and progresses on treatment of recurrent Vogt-Koyanagi-Harada disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, S S; Zhao, C; Liu, X S; Zhang, M F

    2017-04-11

    Vogt-Koyanagi-Harada disease(VKH) is a bilateral, granulomatous panuveitis associated with central nervous system, auditory, and integumentary manifestations. Clinically, VKH usually responds well to early aggressive glucocorticosteroid treatment and may be cured without any clinically significant sequelae. Some patients, however, may enter the chronic recurrent phase, which may result in marked loss of vision due to complications such as complicated cataract, secondary glaucoma and maculopathy. Recurrent VKH is mainly characterized by anterior uveitis associated with thickening of the choroid. Initial poor visual acuity, severe anterior chamber reaction, choroidal folds,rapid tapering of systemic corticosteroids or inadequate duration of treatment, and development of extraocular manifestations may be risk factors of disease recurrence. Prolonged glucocorticosteroid treatment has been suggested as effective strategy for recurrence of VKH. The positive effects of other immunosuppressive agents and biologic agents on treatment of chronic recurrent and refractory VKH have been gradually recognized by the uveitis community. (Chin J Ophthalmol, 2017, 53: 317-320) .

  11. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  12. Eating habits and the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with recurrent depressive disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefańska, Ewa; Wendołowicz, Agnieszka; Cwalina, Urszula; Konarzewska, Beata; Waszkiewicz, Napoleon; Ostrowska, Lucyna

    2016-12-23

    The aim of the research was to assess the fatty acid content and atherogenicity of daily food rations in patients with recurrent depressive disorders in the aspect of risk of developing cardiovascular disease. The study included 126 persons (62 persons with diagnosed recurrent depressive disorders and 64 healthy volunteers). A 24-hour recall was used in the quantitative assessment of the diet. Anthropometric and chemical measurements as well as body composition analysis were used to assess the nutritional status. The diets of 40% of tested women and 55% of men were atherogenic, according to an assessment using Keys'index. The proportion between the PUFA and SFA content was 0.3 (women) and 0.2 (men) with recommended values of . 1. In the group of women there were no significant correlations between the selected clinical features of the illness and components of diet and biochemical data of nutritional status. It was only observed that a higher intensity of depressive symptoms had a significantly negative effect on the glucose concentration in the women's blood. It was also observed that in the group of women suffering from depression, the total consumption of fats and cholesterol content in the food decreased with age. No statistically significant correlations between the assessed variables were observed in the group of men taking part in the study. The improper energy structure and the composition of the subjects' food rations may contribute to the development of the cardiovascular system diseases in the future and make it difficult to maintain mental health at the same time.

  13. Risk Factors for the Postoperative Recurrence of Instability After Arthroscopic Bankart Repair in Athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, Shigeto; Mae, Tatsuo; Sato, Seira; Okimura, Shinichiro; Kuroda, Miki

    2017-09-01

    Several risk factors for the postoperative recurrence of instability after arthroscopic Bankart repair have been reported, but there have been few detailed investigations of the specific risk factors in relation to the type of sport. This study investigated the postoperative recurrence of instability after arthroscopic Bankart repair without additional reinforcement procedures in competitive athletes, including athletes with a large glenoid defect. The purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors related to the postoperative recurrence of instability in athletes. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. A total of 115 athletes (123 shoulders) were classified into 5 groups according to type of sport: rugby (41 shoulders), American football (32 shoulders), other collision sports (18 shoulders), contact sports (15 shoulders), and overhead sports (17 shoulders). First, the recurrence rate in each sporting category was investigated, with 113 shoulders followed up for a minimum of 2 years. Then, factors related to postoperative recurrence were investigated in relation to the type of sport. Postoperative recurrence of instability was noted in 23 of 113 shoulders (20.4%). The recurrence rate was 33.3% in rugby, 17.2% in American football, 11.1% in other collision sports, 14.3% in contact sports, and 12.5% in overhead sports. The most frequent cause of recurrence was tackling, and recurrence occurred with tackling in 12 of 16 athletes playing rugby or American football. Reoperation was completed in 11 shoulders. By univariate analysis, significant risk factors for postoperative recurrence of instability included playing rugby, age between 10 and 19 years at surgery, preoperative glenoid defect, small bone fragment of bony Bankart lesion, and capsular tear. However, by multivariate analysis, the most significant factor was not the type of sport but younger age at operation and a preoperative glenoid defect with small or no bone fragment. Compared with the other

  14. One-year adherence to warfarin treatment for venous thromboembolism in high-risk patients and its association with long-term risk of recurrent events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shih-Yin; Wu, Ning; Gulseth, Michael; LaMori, Joyce; Bookhart, Brahim K; Boulanger, Luke; Fields, Larry; Schein, Jeff

    2013-05-01

    Warfarin is the predominant oral anticoagulant used for the prevention of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) events. However, its long-term use is complicated by the need to manage the drug within a narrow therapeutic range and by possible food and drug interactions. To examine the association between 1-year adherence, measured through compliance with and persistence on warfarin treatment for VTE, and long-term risk of recurrent events among patients at high risk. Medical and pharmacy claims for patients with commercial or Medicare supplemental insurance in the Thomson Reuters MarketScan database were analyzed. Adult patients with medical claims with an associated VTE diagnosis between January 1, 2006, and March 31, 2008, were identified. The index date was defined as the date of the first observed VTE claim or the date of discharge if the index event was a hospital stay. High-risk patients (patients with cancer, or noncancer patients who did not have reversible risk factors during the 3-month period prior to the index date) who filled a warfarin prescription within 2 weeks of the index date were included. Persistence was evaluated in terms of discontinuation, defined as a 90-day gap in warfarin supply during a 1-year assessment period following the index date. Compliance was measured by the proportion of days covered (PDC) over the 1-year assessment period, with PDC less than 0.8 defined as noncompliance. Recurrent VTE events were identified as hospitalizations where VTE was the primary diagnosis after the 1-year assessment period and until patients were lost to follow-up. The association between adherence to warfarin therapy and VTE recurrence was evaluated descriptively via Kaplan-Meier curves and a Cox proportional hazards model, adjusted for patient demographic and clinical characteristics. A similar analysis using the medication possession ratio (MPR) as a measure of compliance was also performed in a subset of patients who had filled at least 2 warfarin

  15. The ability of PAM50 risk of recurrence score to predict 10-year distant recurrence in hormone receptor-positive postmenopausal women with special histological subtypes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laenkholm, Anne-Vibeke; Jensen, Maj-Britt; Eriksen, Jens Ole

    2018-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The Prosigna-PAM50 risk of recurrence (ROR) score has been validated in randomized clinical trials to predict 10-year distant recurrence (DR) in hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. Here, we examine the ability of Prosigna for predicting DR at 10 years in a subgroup of postmenop...

  16. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  17. Risk of Recurrence in Operated Parasagittal Meningiomas: A Logistic Binary Regression Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escribano Mesa, José Alberto; Alonso Morillejo, Enrique; Parrón Carreño, Tesifón; Huete Allut, Antonio; Narro Donate, José María; Méndez Román, Paddy; Contreras Jiménez, Ascensión; Pedrero García, Francisco; Masegosa González, José

    2018-02-01

    Parasagittal meningiomas arise from the arachnoid cells of the angle formed between the superior sagittal sinus (SSS) and the brain convexity. In this retrospective study, we focused on factors that predict early recurrence and recurrence times. We reviewed 125 patients with parasagittal meningiomas operated from 1985 to 2014. We studied the following variables: age, sex, location, laterality, histology, surgeons, invasion of the SSS, Simpson removal grade, follow-up time, angiography, embolization, radiotherapy, recurrence and recurrence time, reoperation, neurologic deficit, degree of dependency, and patient status at the end of follow-up. Patients ranged in age from 26 to 81 years (mean 57.86 years; median 60 years). There were 44 men (35.2%) and 81 women (64.8%). There were 57 patients with neurologic deficits (45.2%). The most common presenting symptom was motor deficit. World Health Organization grade I tumors were identified in 104 patients (84.6%), and the majority were the meningothelial type. Recurrence was detected in 34 cases. Time of recurrence was 9 to 336 months (mean: 84.4 months; median: 79.5 months). Male sex was identified as an independent risk for recurrence with relative risk 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.21-6.15), P = 0.014. Kaplan-Meier curves for recurrence had statistically significant differences depending on sex, age, histologic type, and World Health Organization histologic grade. A binary logistic regression was made with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test with P > 0.05; sex, tumor size, and histologic type were used in this model. Male sex is an independent risk factor for recurrence that, associated with other factors such tumor size and histologic type, explains 74.5% of all cases in a binary regression model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. The epidemiology and risk factors for recurrence after inguinal hernia surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burcharth, Jakob

    2014-05-01

    Recurrence after inguinal hernia surgery is a considerable clinical problem, and several risk factors of recurrence such as surgical technique, re-recurrence, and family history have been identified. Non-technical patient related factors that influence the risk of recurrence after inguinal hernia surgery are sparsely studied. The purpose of the studies included in this PhD thesis, was to describe the epidemiologic characteristics of inguinal hernia occurrence and recurrence, as well as investigating the patient related risk factors leading to recurrence after inguinal hernia surgery. Four studies were included in this thesis. Study 1: The study was a nationwide register-based study combining the Civil Registration System and the Danish National Hospital Register during a five-year period. We included a total of 46,717 persons operated for a groin hernia from the population of 5,639,885 people (2,799,105 males, 2,008,780 females). We found that 97% of all groin hernia repairs were inguinal hernias and 3% femoral hernias. Data showed that inguinal hernia surgery peaked during childhood and old age, whereas femoral hernia surgery increased throughout life. Study 2: Using data from the Danish Hernia Database (DHDB), we included all male patients operated for elective primary inguinal hernia during a 15-year period (n = 85,314). The overall inguinal hernia reoperation rate was 3.8%, and subdivided into indirect inguinal hernias and direct inguinal hernias, the reoperation rates were 2.7% and 5.2%, respectively (p thesis have studies the natural history of groin hernias on a nationwide basis; have identified the epidemiologic distribution of groin hernias and the non-technical risk factors associated with recurrence. Data showed that non-technical patient-related risk factors have great impact on the risk of recurrence after inguinal hernia surgery. The reason to why inguinal hernias recur is most likely multifactorial and lies in the span of technical and non

  19. Posturography and risk of recurrent falls in healthy non-institutionalized persons aged over 65.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buatois, Séverine; Gueguen, René; Gauchard, Gérome C; Benetos, Athanase; Perrin, Philippe P

    2006-01-01

    A poor postural stability in older people is associated with an increased risk of falling. The posturographic tool has widely been used to assess balance control; however, its value in predicting falls remains unclear. The purpose of this prospective study was to determine the predictive value of posturography in the estimation of the risk of recurrent falls, including a comparison with standard clinical balance tests, in healthy non-institutionalized persons aged over 65. Two hundred and six healthy non-institutionalized volunteers aged over 65 were tested. Postural control was evaluated by posturographic tests, performed on static, dynamic and dynamized platforms (static test, slow dynamic test and Sensory Organization Test [SOT]) and clinical balance tests (Timed 'Up & Go' test, One-Leg Balance, Sit-to-Stand-test). Subsequent falls were monitored prospectively with self-questionnaire sent every 4 months for a period of 16 months after the balance testing. Subjects were classified prospectively in three groups of Non-Fallers (0 fall), Single-Fallers (1 fall) and Multi-Fallers (more than 2 falls). Loss of balance during the last trial of the SOT sensory conflicting condition, when visual and somatosensory inputs were distorted, was the best factor to predict the risk of recurrent falls (OR = 3.6, 95% CI = 1.3-10.11). Multi-Fallers showed no postural adaptation during the repetitive trials of this sensory condition, contrary to Non-Fallers and Single-Fallers. The Multi-Fallers showed significantly more sway when visual inputs were occluded. The clinical balance tests, the static test and the slow dynamic test revealed no significant differences between the groups. In a sample of non-institutionalized older persons aged over 65, posturographic evaluation by the SOT, especially with repetition of the same task in sensory conflicting condition, compared to the clinical tests and the static and dynamic posturographic test, appears to be a more sensitive tool to

  20. Joint Estimation of Cardiac Toxicity and Recurrence Risks After Comprehensive Nodal Photon Versus Proton Therapy for Breast Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stick, Line B., E-mail: line.bjerregaard.stick@regionh.dk [Department of Clinical Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Niels Bohr Institute, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Yu, Jen [Maryland Proton Treatment Center, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (United States); Maraldo, Maja V. [Department of Clinical Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Aznar, Marianne C. [Department of Clinical Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford (United Kingdom); Pedersen, Anders N. [Department of Clinical Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Bentzen, Søren M. [Department of Clinical Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Maryland Proton Treatment Center, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (United States); Greenebaum Comprehensive Cancer Center and Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (United States); Vogelius, Ivan R. [Department of Clinical Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2017-03-15

    predicted risk of cardiac toxicity by up to 2.9% and the risk of breast cancer recurrence by 0.9% in individual patients. Predicted benefit correlates weakly with age. Combined assessment of the risk from cardiac exposure and inadequate target coverage is desirable for rational consideration of competing photon and proton therapy plans.

  1. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  2. Ischemic Stroke in Young Adults of Northern China: Characteristics and Risk Factors for Recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fang; Yang, Li; Yang, Rui; Xu, Wei; Chen, Fu-Ping; Li, Nan; Zhang, Jin-Biao

    2017-01-01

    Young adults accounted for 10-14% of ischemic stroke patients. The risk factors may differ in this population from elder patients. In addition, the factors associated with stroke recurrence in this population have not been well investigated. The study aimed to investigate the characteristics and risk factors associated with recurrence of ischemic stroke in young adults. Clinical data of 1,395 patients of age 18-45 years who were treated between 2008 and 2014 in 3 centers located in northern China was reviewed. The first onset of stroke was taken as the initial events and recurrent stroke as the end point events. The end point events, age, gender, duration after first onset of stroke, history of disease, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score at admission, Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment classifications of the cause of stroke and adherence to medication were recorded. These factors were analyzed and compared between recurrence and non-recurrence group. Information about recurrent stroke was collected through clinical (readmission to hospital with ischemic stroke) or telephone follow-up survey. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of recurrence. The most common causes of stroke were large vessel atherosclerosis and small vessel occlusion, followed by cardioembolism. NIHSS score at admission (OR 1.088; 95% CI 1.028-1.152; p = 0.004) were associated with recurrence. Vascular disease, especially premature atherosclerosis, is the major risk factor for ischemic stroke in the young adult population of northern China. Timely screening of the cause of stroke with severe NIHSS score needs further attention. © 2017 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

  3. The association of statin therapy with the risk of recurrent venous thrombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, N L; Harrington, L B; Blondon, M; Wiggins, K L; Floyd, J S; Sitlani, C M; McKnight, B; Larson, E B; Rosendaal, F R; Heckbert, S R; Psaty, B M

    2016-07-01

    Essentials A lowered risk of recurrent venous thrombosis (VT) with statin treatment is controversial. Among observational inception cohort of 2,798 adults with incident VT, 457 had recurrent VT. Time-to-event models with time-varying statin use and adjustment for potential confounders was used for analysis. Compared to nonuse, current statin use was associated with 26% lower risk of recurrent VT. Click to hear Prof. Büller's perspective on Anticoagulant Therapy in the Treatment of Venous Thromboembolism Background Meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials suggest that treatment with hydroxymethylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase inhibitors (statins) lowers the risk of incident venous thrombosis (VT), particularly among those without prevalent clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether this is true for the prevention of recurrent VT is debated. We used an observational inception cohort to estimate the association of current statin use with the risk of recurrent VT. Methods and Results The study setting was a large healthcare organization with detailed medical record and pharmacy information at cohort entry and throughout follow-up. We followed 2798 subjects 18-89 years of age who experienced a validated incident VT between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2010, for a first recurrent VT, validated by medical record review. During follow-up, 457 (16%) developed a first recurrent VT. In time-to-event models incorporating time-varying statin use and adjusting for potential confounders, current statin use was associated with a 26% lower risk of recurrent VT: hazard ratio 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.59-0.94. Among cohort members free of CVD (n = 2134), current statin use was also associated with a lower risk (38%) of recurrent VT: hazard ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.45-0.85. We found similar results when restricting to new users of statins and in subgroups of different statin types and doses. Conclusions In a population-based cohort of subjects who had

  4. Recurrent Urinary Tract Infection Among Renal Transplant Recipients: Risk Factors and Long-Term Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tawab, Khaled Abdel; Gheith, Osama; Al Otaibi, Torki; Nampoory, Naryanam; Mansour, Hany; Halim, Medhat A; Nair, Prasad; Said, Tarek; Abdelmonem, Mohamed; El-Sayed, Ayman; Awadain, Waleed

    2017-04-01

    Urinary tract infection is the most common type of bacterial infection in kidney transplant procedures, with adverse effects on graft and patient survival. We aimed to evaluate the risk factors of recurrent urinary tract infection in renal transplant recipients and its impact on patient and graft survival. In a cohort of 1019 patients who were transplanted between 2000 and 2010 at Hamed Al-Essa Organ Transplant Center in Kuwait, 86% developed at least 1 episode of urinary tract infection, with only 6.2% of patients having recurrent infections. We compared patients with recurrent urinary tract infections (group 1) with those who had no recurrence (group 2) regarding their risk factors. Patients in group 1 were significantly younger than those in group 2 (34.9 ± 23 vs 42.8 ± 16 y; P urinary tract infections (P infections were significantly more prevalent among group 1 (10.8% vs 3.8%; P = .008). Long-term graft outcome (functioning and failed) were 78.5% and 21.5% in group 1 versus 85.1% and 13.9% in group 2 (P = .18). Patient outcomes (living and deceased donors) were 98.4% and 1.6% in group 1 versus 95.7% and 4.3% in group 2 (P = .187). Adult females, thymoglobulin induction, pretransplant urologic problems, and hepatitis C infection were the risk factors of recurrent urinary tract infection among our renal transplant patients. However, recurrence did not adversely affect graft or patient survival.

  5. Clinical and biochemical risk factors for first and recurrent episodes of venous thrombosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Christiansen, Sverre Christian

    2010-01-01

    The objectives of this thesis were to study the magnitude of the risk of venous thrombosis (VT) in the general population, and to determine clinical and biochemical factors that influence this risk. We examined this separately for first and for recurrent thrombotic events: TROL, a Norwegian

  6. Sex similarities and differences in risk factors for recurrence of major depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Loo, Hanna M; Aggen, Steven H; Gardner, Charles O; Kendler, Kenneth S

    2017-11-27

    Major depression (MD) occurs about twice as often in women as in men, but it is unclear whether sex differences subsist after disease onset. This study aims to elucidate potential sex differences in rates and risk factors for MD recurrence, in order to improve prediction of course of illness and understanding of its underlying mechanisms. We used prospective data from a general population sample (n = 653) that experienced a recent episode of MD. A diverse set of potential risk factors for recurrence of MD was analyzed using Cox models subject to elastic net regularization for males and females separately. Accuracy of the prediction models was tested in same-sex and opposite-sex test data. Additionally, interactions between sex and each of the risk factors were investigated to identify potential sex differences. Recurrence rates and the impact of most risk factors were similar for men and women. For both sexes, prediction models were highly multifactorial including risk factors such as comorbid anxiety, early traumas, and family history. Some subtle sex differences were detected: for men, prediction models included more risk factors concerning characteristics of the depressive episode and family history of MD and generalized anxiety, whereas for women, models included more risk factors concerning early and recent adverse life events and socioeconomic problems. No prominent sex differences in risk factors for recurrence of MD were found, potentially indicating similar disease maintaining mechanisms for both sexes. Course of MD is a multifactorial phenomenon for both males and females.

  7. Recurrence risk of preterm birth in subsequent twin pregnancy after preterm singleton delivery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaaf, J. M.; Hof, M. H. P.; Mol, B. W. J.; Abu-Hanna, A.; Ravelli, A. C. J.

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Schaaf J, Hof M, Mol B, Abu-Hanna A, Ravelli A. Recurrence risk of preterm birth in subsequent twin pregnancy after preterm singleton delivery.BJOG 2012;119:16241629. Objective To determine the risk of preterm birth in a subsequent twin pregnancy after previous singleton

  8. Using spatial information about recurrence risk for robust optimization of dose-painting prescription functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bender, Edward T.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a robust method for deriving dose-painting prescription functions using spatial information about the risk for disease recurrence. Methods: Spatial distributions of radiobiological model parameters are derived from distributions of recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. These model parameters are then used to derive optimal dose-painting prescription functions given a constant mean biologically effective dose. Results: An estimate for the optimal dose distribution can be derived based on spatial information about recurrence risk. Dose painting based on imaging markers that are moderately or poorly correlated with recurrence risk are predicted to potentially result in inferior disease control when compared the same mean biologically effective dose delivered uniformly. A robust optimization approach may partially mitigate this issue. Conclusions: The methods described here can be used to derive an estimate for a robust, patient-specific prescription function for use in dose painting. Two approximate scaling relationships were observed: First, the optimal choice for the maximum dose differential when using either a linear or two-compartment prescription function is proportional to R, where R is the Pearson correlation coefficient between a given imaging marker and recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. Second, the predicted maximum possible gain in tumor control probability for any robust optimization technique is nearly proportional to the square of R.

  9. Usefulness of F 18 FDG PET/CT In Assessment of Recurrence of Cervical Cancer After Treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Minkyung; Lee, Yukyung; Hwang, Kyung Hoon; Park, Chan Youg; Choe, Wonsick

    2011-01-01

    Until now, serum tumor markers, physical examination, and conventional imaging modalities, such as CT of MRI, have been used in assessment of recurrence of cervical cancer after treatment. However, CT and MRI provide only anatomical data, which makes analysis of post treatment change difficult. This study aims to explore the effectiveness of PET/CT, a new scanning device that combines PET and CT, in evaluation of cervical cancer lesions in patients with suspected recurrence. We studied 51 patients suspected of recurrence among those who underwent F 18 FDG PET/CT for cervical cancer follow up at Gachon University Gil Hospital between June 2006 and August 2009. Patients were considered to be at risk for recurrence if they reported symptoms that were clinically suggestive of recurrence, or if physical examination showed abnormalities, serum tumor marker levels rose, or follow up images revealed changes, such as new lesions or swelling of previous sites. Sensitivity, accuracy, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of PET/CT were measured. A total of 37 patients were confirmed with recurrence or metastasis, 13 of whom were diagnosed histologically. Measured across all patients, PET/CT scored 97.3% on sensitivity, 71.4% on specificity, a positive predictive value of 90%, a negative predictive value of 90.9%, and an accuracy of 90.2%. PET/CT yielded only one false negative diagnosis and four false positives. As F 18 FDG PET/CT has high sensitivity and negative predictive value in diagnosis of recurrent cervical cancers, it is expected that it will be useful for clinical determination of recurrence and prevention of unnecessary additional treatments. The hope is that a future study on a larger scale will contribute further to determination of the efficacy of PET/CT

  10. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  11. Pfetin as a Risk Factor of Recurrence in Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajime Orita

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Despite complete resection of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST, recurrent and/or metastatic disease occurs, often depending on the grade of malignancy. As such, markers are needed that accurately predict patients at high risk for recurrence. Previously our group reported Pfetin as a prognostic biomarker for GIST. In order to create an approach for predicting risk of recurrence, we incorporated Pfetin expression with clinicopathological data to produce a predictive model. Object. Forty-five patients with localized primary GIST were treated with complete gross surgical resection surgically at our institution between 1995 and 2010 were included. The majority of tumors originated in the stomach (38 cases, as well as small intestine (6 cases and rectum (1 case. Method. (1 We performed retrospective analysis of the connection between Pfetin expression, clinicopathological data, and incidences of recurrence, using bivariate and multivariate analyses. (2 The reactivity of the monoclonal antibody against Pfetin was examined by immunohistochemistry. Pfetin. We have reported Pfetin, identified microarray technology, and compared between statistically different GISTs for good and poor prognoses and for prognostic marker. Results. There were 7 cases of recurrences. (1 By univariate analysis, tumor size, mitoses, exposure to abdominal cavity, and complete tumor removal predicted risk of recurrence. (2 Pfetin-negative cases were significantly related to recurrence (P = 0.002. Conclusions. This analysis demonstrates that lack of Pfetin expression is an additional predictor of recurrence in resected GIST. Further study may determine the role of this variable added to the current predictive model for selection of adjuvant therapy.

  12. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  13. Risk factors for recurrent symptomatic pigmented biliary stones after percutaneous transhepatic biliary extraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dong Won; Lee, Sang Yun; Cho, Jin-Han; Kang, Myong Jin; Noh, Myung Hwan; Park, Byeong-Ho

    2010-07-01

    To evaluate risk factors for the recurrence of biliary stones after a percutaneous transhepatic biliary stone extraction. The procedures were performed on 339 patients between July 2004 and December 2008 (54 months). Medical records and images were retrospectively reviewed for 135 patients (mean age, 66.4 years; 83 men and 52 women) who had undergone follow-up for a mean of 13.2 months (range, 3-37 months). To evaluate risk factors for the recurrence of biliary stones, variables were evaluated with univariate and multivariate analyses. Variables included sex, age, stone location, number of stones, stone size, presence of a peripapillary diverticulum, application of antegrade sphincteroplasty, presence of a biliary stricture, largest biliary diameter before the procedure, and gallbladder status. Thirty-three of the 135 patients (24%) had recurrent symptomatic biliary stones and underwent an additional extraction. The mean time to recurrence was 17.2 months +/- 8.7. Univariate analysis of risk factors for recurrence of biliary stones demonstrated that location, number of stones, stone size, application of antegrade sphincteroplasty, presence of a biliary stricture, and biliary diameter were significant factors (P or =6; relative risk, 64.8; 95% confidence interval: 5.8, 717.6) and stone size (> or =14 mm; relative risk, 3.8; 95% confidence interval: 1.138, 13.231) were determined to be significant risk factors. The independent risk factors for recurrence of symptomatic biliary stones after percutaneous transhepatic biliary stone extraction were a stone size of at least 14 mm and the presence of at least six stones. Copyright 2010 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  15. Resilience in high-risk adolescents of mothers with recurrent depressive disorder: The contribution of fathers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahedy, Liam; Harold, Gordon T; Maughan, Barbara; Gardner, Frances; Araya, Ricardo; Bevan Jones, Rhys; Hammerton, Gemma; Sellers, Ruth; Thapar, Anita; Collishaw, Stephan

    2018-06-01

    This study examines the role of paternal emotional support as a resilience promoter in offspring of mothers with depression by considering the role of fathers' mental health and the quality of the couple relationship. Two hundred and sixty-five mothers with recurrent unipolar depression, partners and adolescents from Wales were assessed. Paternal emotional support, couple relationship quality, and paternal depression were assessed at baseline; adolescent mental health symptoms were assessed using the Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Assessment at follow-up. Results showed evidence of an indirect pathway whereby couple relationship quality predicted paternal emotional support (β = -.21, 95% CI [-.34, -.08]; p = .002) which in turn predicted adolescent depression (β = -.18, 95% CI [-.33, -.04]; p = .02), but not disruptive behaviours (β = -.08, 95% CI [-.22, .07]; p = .30), after controlling for relevant confounders. The findings highlight that fathers and the broader family system play an important role in enhancing resilience to depression symptoms in at-risk adolescents. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. Development and validation of a nomogram predicting recurrence risk in women with symptomatic urinary tract infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Tommaso; Mazzoli, Sandra; Migno, Serena; Malossini, Gianni; Lanzafame, Paolo; Mereu, Liliana; Tateo, Saverio; Wagenlehner, Florian M E; Pickard, Robert S; Bartoletti, Riccardo

    2014-09-01

    To develop and externally validate a novel nomogram predicting recurrence risk probability at 12 months in women after an episode of urinary tract infection. The study included 768 women from Santa Maria Annunziata Hospital, Florence, Italy, affected by urinary tract infections from January 2005 to December 2009. Another 373 women with the same criteria enrolled at Santa Chiara Hospital, Trento, Italy, from January 2010 to June 2012 were used to externally validate and calibrate the nomogram. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models tested the relationship between urinary tract infection recurrence risk, and patient clinical and laboratory characteristics. The nomogram was evaluated by calculating concordance probabilities, as well as testing calibration of predicted urinary tract infection recurrence with observed urinary tract infections. Nomogram variables included: number of partners, bowel function, type of pathogens isolated (Gram-positive/negative), hormonal status, number of previous urinary tract infection recurrences and previous treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria. Of the original development data, 261 out of 768 women presented at least one episode of recurrence of urinary tract infection (33.9%). The nomogram had a concordance index of 0.85. The nomogram predictions were well calibrated. This model showed high discrimination accuracy and favorable calibration characteristics. In the validation group (373 women), the overall c-index was 0.83 (P = 0.003, 95% confidence interval 0.51-0.99), whereas the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.79-0.91). The present nomogram accurately predicts the recurrence risk of urinary tract infection at 12 months, and can assist in identifying women at high risk of symptomatic recurrence that can be suitable candidates for a prophylactic strategy. © 2014 The Japanese Urological Association.

  17. Psychosocial risk factors and treatment of new onset and recurrent depression during the post-partum period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettunen, Pirjo; Hintikka, Jukka

    2017-07-01

    When developing maternity care services, it is important to know how psychosocial factors affect the course of post-partum depression (PPD), and how depressed mothers are treated. The aim of this study is to assess how adverse childhood experiences, poor present support and violence, and low socioeconomic status (SES) associate with PPD, specifically in new onset and recurrent post-partum depression. The second aim is to assess the treatment received for PPD. This is a cross-sectional study. The study group comprises 104 mothers with a current episode of PPD, and a control group of 104 mothers without an episode. The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders was used for data collection. Psychosocial risk factors, treatment issues, and the course of depression were assessed with a structured self-report questionnaire. In age-adjusted multivariate analyses, adverse childhood experiences, a low level of present support in close relationships, and a poor SES were associated significantly with PPD. Childhood adversity was associated with both new onset and recurrent depression. Nevertheless, a low level of support and a poor SES were also associated with recurrent depression. A quarter of mothers with a major depressive episode in the post-partum period attended psychiatric services. In mothers with new onset depression, the proportion was only 5%. There is an urgent need to develop the diagnostics of depression in maternity care services. An awareness of psychosocial risk factors might help in this. More depressed mothers should be referred to psychiatric services.

  18. Statin use and risk of disease recurrence and death after radical prostatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keskiväli, Teemu; Kujala, Paula; Visakorpi, Tapio; Tammela, Teuvo L J; Murtola, Teemu J

    2016-04-01

    Statins have been linked with improved prostate cancer survival and lower risk of recurrence in men treated with radiation therapy. However, the association is unclear for surgically-treated men. We studied the risk of prostate cancer recurrence and death by statin usage after radical prostatectomy in a cohort of prostate cancer patients treated with radical prostatectomy. A cohort of 1,314 men who underwent curative-intent radical prostatectomy at the Tampere University Hospital, Tampere, Finland during 1995-2009 were linked to national prescription database to obtain detailed information on statin purchases. The risk of PSA recurrence and death (overall and prostate cancer-specific) by statin use before and after the surgery were evaluated using Cox regression with model adjustment for tumor characteristics, total cholesterol and simultaneous use of antidiabetic and antihypertensive drugs. Tissue expression of putative prognostic markers were measured from a subgroup of 323 men. During the median follow-up of 8.6 years after surgery 484 men recurred, while 244 men died (32 due to prostate cancer). In general statin use before or after prostatectomy was not associated with risk of disease recurrence or death. Tissue expression of Ki-67 and ERG modified the association between statin use and risk of disease recurrence; the risk estimates were lower in men with Ki-67 expression above the median (P for interaction 0.001 and 0.004 for statin use before and after prostatectomy, respectively) and no ERG expression in the tumor tissue (P for interaction 0.006 and 0.011). Statin use generally did not affect prostate cancer prognosis after prostatectomy. The effect on disease recurrence may depend on tumor properties, such as proliferation activity. Thus possible future prospective studies should recognize and enroll subgroups of prostate cancer patients most likely to benefit from statins. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  20. Behavioral and psychosocial risk factors associated with first and recurrent cystitis in Indian women: A case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bharti Mishra

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The risk factors for urinary tract infections (UTIs from developed countries are not applicable to women from developing world. Objective: To analyze the behavioral practices and psychosocial aspects pertinent to women in our region and assess their association with acute first time or recurrent UTI. Materials and Methods: Sexually active premenopausal women with their first (145 and recurrent (77 cystitis with Escherichia coli as cases and women with no prior history of UTI as healthy controls (257 were enrolled at a tertiary care hospital in India, between June 2011 and February 2013. Questionnaire-based data was collected from each participant through a structured face-to-face interview. Results: Using univariate and multivariate regression models, independent risk factors for the first episode of cystitis when compared with healthy controls were (presented in odds ratios [ORs] with its 95% confidence interval [CI]: Anal sex (OR = 3.68, 95% CI = 1.59-8.52, time interval between last sexual intercourse and current episode of UTI was 250 ml of tea consumption per day (OR = 4.73, 95% CI = 2.67-8.38, presence of vaginal infection (OR = 3.23, 95% CI = 1.85-5.62 and wiping back to front (OR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.45-4.38. Along with the latter three, history of UTI in a first-degree female relative (OR = 10.88, 95% CI = 2.41-49.07, constipation (OR = 4.85, 95% CI = 1.97-11.92 and stress incontinence (OR = 2.45, 95% CI = 1.18-5.06 were additional independent risk factors for recurrent cystitis in comparison to healthy controls. Conclusion: Most of the risk factors for initial infection are potentially modifiable but sufficient to also pose risk for recurrence. Many of the findings reflect the cultural and ethnic practices in our country.

  1. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  2. Risk factors for chronic and recurrent otitis media-a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Zhang

    Full Text Available Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM and recurrent otitis media (ROM have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13-1.64; P = 0.001. An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13-13.89; P<0.00001. Snoring appeared to be a significant risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.78-2.16; P<0.00001. A patient history of acute otitis media (AOM/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06-116.44; P = 0.04. Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.89 P = 0.04. Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11-13.15; P = 0.03. Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria.

  3. Local recurrences and distant metastases after breast-conservative treatments in a population at very low risk of recurrence are very dependent events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cowen, Didier; Jacquemier, Jocelyne; Houvenaeghel, Gilles; Viens, Patrice; Maraninchi, Dominique; Puig, Brigitte; Bardou, Valerie-Jeanne; Resbeut, Michel

    1997-01-01

    PURPOSE: Assessment of the relative merits of individual factors influencing the risks of loco-regional failure (LRF) and metastases (M) after breast-preserving treatments is made difficult by the marked inhomogeneities within the published series: short follow-up, use of chemotherapy, nodal status, margins of resection. We therefore selected a very homogenous population with an expected low-risk of recurrence to identify high-risk subgroups which may need more aggressive treatments. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between 1980 and 1995, 3697 women with breast cancer were referred to Paoli-Calmettes Cancer Center, Marseille. Patients included in the study had undergone axillary dissection and were node negative (n=1840), were treated with conservative surgery (usually lumpectomy) and standard radiotherapy (n=1241), had histological tumor sizes ≤ 50 mm, received no chemotherapy (n=1024), and had negative margins of resection (n=756). Hormonal therapy was given to 238 women (31.5%): castration for premenopausal women (n=92), tamoxifen for postmenopausal women (n=146). The following factors were entered in the univariate analysis: age (≤ 40 yrs. vs > 40 yrs.), menopausal status, hormonal treatment, peritumoral vessel invasion (PVI), histologic multifocality (HM), extensive intraductal component (EIC), estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status, SBR grade (I vs II vs III) and histological size (≤20 mm vs >20 mm). Factors statistically significant (p + and 72.1% PR + tumors. PVI was found in 184 tumors and EIC only in 30 tumors whereas HM was found in 106 cases. There were 53 local recurrences, 8 locoregional failures and 65 metastases as first event. The yearly conditional event probability for LRF and M was 1.8% and 1.6% respectively, constant over the years. Five and ten-year freedom from recurrence rates were 92.7% [90.4%-94.9%] and 81.6% [76.2%-86.9%] respectively for LRFs, and 91.6% [89.2%-94%] and 83.6% [79%-88.1%] respectively for M. Patients with

  4. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  5. The 25-question Geriatric Locomotive Function Scale predicts the risk of recurrent falls in postoperative patients with cervical myelopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Atsushi; Takeshita, Katsushi; Inoue, Hirokazu; Seichi, Atsushi; Kawasaki, Yosuke; Yoshii, Toshitaka; Inose, Hiroyuki; Furuya, Takeo; Takeuchi, Kazuhiro; Matsunaga, Shunji; Seki, Shoji; Tsushima, Mikito; Imagama, Shiro; Koda, Masao; Yamazaki, Masashi; Mori, Kanji; Nishimura, Hirosuke; Endo, Kenji; Yamada, Kei; Sato, Kimiaki; Okawa, Atsushi

    2018-01-01

    Fall-induced injuries represent a major public health concern for older individuals. The relationship between risk of falling and the severity of locomotive syndrome (LS) remains largely unknown. We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients who had undergone surgery from January 2012 to December 2013 and completed at least 1 year of follow-up at 12 participating institutes. Patients completed a questionnaire survey regarding their fall experience during a routine postoperative follow-up. Questionnaire items included the number of falls during the prior postoperative year and the 25-question Geriatric Locomotive Function Scale (GLFS-25). The severity of cervical myelopathy was assessed using the Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA) score. We analyzed the association between the incidence of falling and the severity of LS measured by the GLFS-25. Of 360 patients, 61 (16.9%) experienced 1 fall; 31 (8.6%), 2-3 falls; 4 (1.1%), 4-5 falls; and 6 (1.7%), ≥6 falls during the first postoperative year. Thus, 102 (28%) patients experienced at least 1 fall, and 41 (11%) experienced recurrent falls (2 or more falls) during the time period. The mean GLFS-25 score was 30.2 ± 22.7, and 242 (62%) patients had GLFS-25 scores of 16 or higher, which fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for LS. When subjects were categorized into recurrent fallers and non-recurrent fallers, recurrent fallers had a significantly higher GLFS-25 score and a significantly lower extremity motor function score of the JOA score than non-recurrent fallers. The GLFS-25 and lower extremity motor function score of the JOA score yielded the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.674 and 0.607, respectively, to differentiate recurrent fallers from non-recurrent fallers. Postoperative patients with cervical myelopathy had a 62% prevalence of LS. The GLFS-25 may be useful to predict the risk of recurrent falls in patients with cervical myelopathy. Copyright © 2017 The Japanese

  6. Risk factors for recurrent hospital-acquired Clostridium difficile infection in a Japanese university hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hikone M

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Mayu Hikone,1 Yusuke Ainoda,1,2 Sayaka Tago,2 Takahiro Fujita,2 Yuji Hirai,2 Kaori Takeuchi,2 Kyoichi Totsuka31Department of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo Metropolitan Bokutoh General Hospital, 2Department of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo Women's Medical University, 3Department of Internal Medicine, Kitatama Hospital, Tokyo, JapanBackground: Clostridium difficile infection (CDI is a highly prevalent hospital-associated infection. Although most patients respond well to discontinuation of antibiotics, 20%–30% of patients relapse. To initiate early therapeutic measures, the risk factors for recurrent CDI must be identified, although very few Japanese studies have used standard surveillance definitions to identify these risk factors.Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with health care facility-onset CDI between August 2011 and September 2013. Patients with diarrhea who were positive for Clostridium difficile (via an enzyme immunoassay were defined as having CDI. Clinical data (eg, demographics, comorbidities, medication, laboratory results, and clinical outcomes were evaluated, and multivariate analysis was used to identify risk factors that were associated with recurrent CDI.Results: Seventy-six health care facility-onset CDI cases were identified, with an incidence rate of 0.8 cases per 10,000 patient-days. Fourteen cases (18.4% were recurrent, with 13 patients having experienced a single recurrent episode and one patient having experienced three recurrent episodes. The 30-day and 90-day mortality rates were 7.9% and 14.5%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that recurrent patients were more likely to have underlying malignant disease (odds ratio: 7.98; 95% confidence interval: 1.22–52.2; P=0.03 and a history of intensive care unit hospitalization (odds ratio: 49.9; 95% confidence interval: 1.01–2,470; P=0.049.Conclusion: Intensive care unit hospitalization and malignancy are risk factors for recurrent

  7. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  8. Parent of origin, mosaicism, and recurrence risk: probabilistic modeling explains the broken symmetry of transmission genetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Ian M; Stewart, Jonathan R; James, Regis A; Lupski, James R; Stankiewicz, Paweł; Olofsson, Peter; Shaw, Chad A

    2014-10-02

    Most new mutations are observed to arise in fathers, and increasing paternal age positively correlates with the risk of new variants. Interestingly, new mutations in X-linked recessive disease show elevated familial recurrence rates. In male offspring, these mutations must be inherited from mothers. We previously developed a simulation model to consider parental mosaicism as a source of transmitted mutations. In this paper, we extend and formalize the model to provide analytical results and flexible formulas. The results implicate parent of origin and parental mosaicism as central variables in recurrence risk. Consistent with empirical data, our model predicts that more transmitted mutations arise in fathers and that this tendency increases as fathers age. Notably, the lack of expansion later in the male germline determines relatively lower variance in the proportion of mutants, which decreases with paternal age. Subsequently, observation of a transmitted mutation has less impact on the expected risk for future offspring. Conversely, for the female germline, which arrests after clonal expansion in early development, variance in the mutant proportion is higher, and observation of a transmitted mutation dramatically increases the expected risk of recurrence in another pregnancy. Parental somatic mosaicism considerably elevates risk for both parents. These findings have important implications for genetic counseling and for understanding patterns of recurrence in transmission genetics. We provide a convenient online tool and source code implementing our analytical results. These tools permit varying the underlying parameters that influence recurrence risk and could be useful for analyzing risk in diverse family structures. Copyright © 2014 The American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Logistic regression analysis of risk factors for postoperative recurrence of spinal tumors and analysis of prognostic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shanyong; Yang, Lili; Peng, Chuangang; Wu, Minfei

    2018-02-01

    Cormick grade and patient received partial resection or biopsy. Tumor property, tumor location, McCormick grade, tumor resection, and intramedullary tumors are risk factors for the recurrence of spinal tumors. Clinical assessment of these risk factors may be helpful in selecting appropriate treatment strategies.

  10. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  11. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  12. A resilience-oriented approach for quantitatively assessing recurrent spatial-temporal congestion on urban roads.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junqing Tang

    Full Text Available Traffic congestion brings not only delay and inconvenience, but other associated national concerns, such as greenhouse gases, air pollutants, road safety issues and risks. Identification, measurement, tracking, and control of urban recurrent congestion are vital for building a livable and smart community. A considerable amount of works has made contributions to tackle the problem. Several methods, such as time-based approaches and level of service, can be effective for characterizing congestion on urban streets. However, studies with systemic perspectives have been minor in congestion quantification. Resilience, on the other hand, is an emerging concept that focuses on comprehensive systemic performance and characterizes the ability of a system to cope with disturbance and to recover its functionality. In this paper, we symbolized recurrent congestion as internal disturbance and proposed a modified metric inspired by the well-applied "R4" resilience-triangle framework. We constructed the metric with generic dimensions from both resilience engineering and transport science to quantify recurrent congestion based on spatial-temporal traffic patterns and made the comparison with other two approaches in freeway and signal-controlled arterial cases. Results showed that the metric can effectively capture congestion patterns in the study area and provides a quantitative benchmark for comparison. Also, it suggested not only a good comparative performance in measuring strength of proposed metric, but also its capability of considering the discharging process in congestion. The sensitivity tests showed that proposed metric possesses robustness against parameter perturbation in Robustness Range (RR, but the number of identified congestion patterns can be influenced by the existence of ϵ. In addition, the Elasticity Threshold (ET and the spatial dimension of cell-based platform differ the congestion results significantly on both the detected number and

  13. Bone and/or joint attachment is a risk factor for local recurrence of myxofibrosarcoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaya, Mitsunori; Wada, Takuro; Nagoya, Satoshi; Yamashita, Toshihiko

    2011-01-01

    Myxofibrosarcoma is characterized by a high local recurrence rate despite optimal surgical treatment. The definition of prognostic factors for recurrence offers high-risk patients a closer follow-up and a multidisciplinary therapeutic approach. A cohort of 23 patients treated for primary myxofibrosarcoma was retrospectively analyzed. The patients (sex and age), tumors (size, stage, tumor location, bone and/or joint attachment), radiological findings (abnormal signal extension in MRI), histological findings (FNCLCC grade and microscopic extension along the muscle fascia), and treatment (surgical margin) characteristics were included in univariate prognostic factor analysis. After a median follow-up of 63.3 months (range 15-191), the overall recurrence rate was 34.7%. Median time between initial surgery and recurrence was 24.8 months (range 8-52). Inadequate surgical margins (p=0.026) and bone and/or joint attachment (p=0.001) were associated with an increased recurrence rate. For the further improvement of local recurrence-free survival of patients with myxofibrosarcoma, accurate diagnosis of the tumor extension and adequate planning for the surgical margin should be focused on in cases with bone and/or joint attachment. (author)

  14. Work stress and the risk of recurrent coronary heart disease events: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jian; Zhang, Min; Loerbroks, Adrian; Angerer, Peter; Siegrist, Johannes

    2015-01-01

    Though much evidence indicates that work stress increases the risk of incident of coronary heart disease (CHD), little is known about the role of work stress in the development of recurrent CHD events. The objective of this study was to review and synthesize the existing epidemiological evidence on whether work stress increases the risk of recurrent CHD events in patients with the first CHD. A systematic literature search in the PubMed database (January 1990 - December 2013) for prospective studies was performed. Inclusion criteria included: peer-reviewed English papers with original data, studies with substantial follow-up (> 3 years), end points defined as cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction, as well as work stress assessed with reliable and valid instruments. Meta-analysis using random-effects modeling was conducted in order to synthesize the observed effects across the studies. Five papers derived from 4 prospective studies conducted in Sweden and Canada were included in this systematic review. The measurement of work stress was based on the Demand- Control model (4 papers) or the Effort-Reward Imbalance model (1 paper). According to the estimation by meta-analysis based on 4 papers, a significant effect of work stress on the risk of recurrent CHD events (hazard ratio: 1.65, 95% confidence interval: 1.23-2.22) was observed. Our findings suggest that, in patients with the first CHD, work stress is associated with an increased relative risk of recurrent CHD events by 65%. Due to the limited literature, more well-designed prospective research is needed to examine this association, in particular, from other than western regions of the world. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

  15. Development and validation of a risk prediction algorithm for the recurrence of suicidal ideation among general population with low mood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y; Sareen, J; Bolton, J M; Wang, J L

    2016-03-15

    Suicidal ideation is one of the strongest predictors of recent and future suicide attempt. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction algorithm for the recurrence of suicidal ideation among population with low mood 3035 participants from U.S National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions with suicidal ideation at their lowest mood at baseline were included. The Alcohol Use Disorder and Associated Disabilities Interview Schedule, based on the DSM-IV criteria was used. Logistic regression modeling was conducted to derive the algorithm. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in the development and validation cohorts. In the development data, the proportion of recurrent suicidal ideation over 3 years was 19.5 (95% CI: 17.7, 21.5). The developed algorithm consisted of 6 predictors: age, feelings of emptiness, sudden mood changes, self-harm history, depressed mood in the past 4 weeks, interference with social activities in the past 4 weeks because of physical health or emotional problems and emptiness was the most important risk factor. The model had good discriminative power (C statistic=0.8273, 95% CI: 0.8027, 0.8520). The C statistic was 0.8091 (95% CI: 0.7786, 0.8395) in the external validation dataset and was 0.8193 (95% CI: 0.8001, 0.8385) in the combined dataset. This study does not apply to people with suicidal ideation who are not depressed. The developed risk algorithm for predicting the recurrence of suicidal ideation has good discrimination and excellent calibration. Clinicians can use this algorithm to stratify the risk of recurrence in patients and thus improve personalized treatment approaches, make advice and further intensive monitoring. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Association between atherogenic dyslipidemia and recurrent stroke risk in patients with different subtypes of ischemic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lu; Wang, Ruihao; Song, Bo; Tan, Song; Gao, Yuan; Fang, Hui; Lu, Jie; Xu, Yuming

    2015-07-01

    The association between atherogenic dyslipidemia and stroke recurrence remains unclear, and may be influenced by different subtypes of ischemic stroke. We aimed to investigate whether atherogenic dyslipidemia contributed to stroke recurrence in ischemic stroke patients and in those with certain subtypes of ischemic stroke. We conducted a prospective hospital-based study enrolling patients with acute ischemic stroke. Atherogenic dyslipidemia was defined as high-density lipoprotein cholesterol dyslipidemia and stroke recurrence was analyzed by using multivariable Cox regression model. In the 510 ischemic stroke patients, 64 patients (12·5%) had atherogenic dyslipidemia, and 66 patients (12·9%) experienced stroke recurrence events within 24 months. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that stroke recurrence rate was significantly higher in patients with atherogenic dyslipidemia than those without in all the stroke patients (20·3% vs. 11·9%; P = 0·048), and more evident in those of large-artery atherosclerosis subtype (31·0% vs. 14·1%; P = 0·014), but not in the other subtypes. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that atherogenic dyslipidemia was associated with higher stroke recurrence risk among stroke patients of large-artery atherosclerosis subtype (hazard ratio, 2·79; 95% confidence interval, 1·24-6·28), but not significant in all the stroke patients (hazard ratio, 1·69; 95% confidence interval, 0·85-3·37). Atherogenic dyslipidemia is associated with higher risk of stroke recurrence in ischemic stroke patients. Such association might be more pronounced in large-artery atherosclerosis subtype and needs further investigation to establish such relationship. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

  17. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  18. Hyperinsulinemia and hyperglycemia: risk factors for recurrence of benign paroxysmal positional vertigo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Webster

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Changes in carbohydrate metabolism may lead to recurrence of benign paroxysmal positional vertigo.OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of the disturbance of carbohydrate metabolism in the recurrence of idiopathic BPPV.METHODS: A longitudinal prospective study of a cohort, with 41 months follow-up. We analyzed the results of 72 glucose-insulin curves in patients with recurrence of BPPV. The curves were classified into intolerance, hyperinsulinemia, hyperglycemia and normal.RESULTS: The RR for hyperinsulinism was 4.66 and p = 0.0015. Existing hyperglycemia showed an RR = 2.47, with p = 0.0123. Glucose intolerance had a RR of 0.63, with p = 0.096. When the examination was within normal limits, the result was RR = 0.2225 and p = 0.030.DISCUSSION: Metabolic changes can cause dizziness and vertigo and are very common in people who have cochleovestibular disorders. However, few studies discuss the relationship between idiopathic BPPV and alterations in carbohydrate metabolism. In the present study, we found that both hyperglycemia and hyperinsulinemia are risk factors for the recurrence of BPPV, whereas a normal test was considered a protective factor; all these were statistically significant. Glucose intolerance that was already present was not statistically significant in the group evaluated.CONCLUSION: Hyperinsulinemia and hyperglycemia are risk factors for the recurrence of idiopathic BPPV and a normal exam is considered a protective factor.

  19. Hyperinsulinemia and hyperglycemia: risk factors for recurrence of benign paroxysmal positional vertigo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Guilherme; Sens, Patrícia Maria; Salmito, Márcio Cavalcante; Cavalcante, José Diogo Rijo; Santos, Paula Regina Bonifácio dos; Silva, Ana Lívia Muniz da; Souza, Érica Carla Figueiredo de

    2015-01-01

    Changes in carbohydrate metabolism may lead to recurrence of benign paroxysmal positional vertigo. To evaluate the influence of the disturbance of carbohydrate metabolism in the recurrence of idiopathic BPPV. A longitudinal prospective study of a cohort, with 41 months follow-up. We analyzed the results of 72 glucose-insulin curves in patients with recurrence of BPPV. The curves were classified into intolerance, hyperinsulinemia, hyperglycemia and normal. The RR for hyperinsulinism was 4.66 and p=0.0015. Existing hyperglycemia showed an RR=2.47, with p=0.0123. Glucose intolerance had a RR of 0.63, with p=0.096. When the examination was within normal limits, the result was RR=0.2225 and p=0.030. Metabolic changes can cause dizziness and vertigo and are very common in people who have cochleovestibular disorders. However, few studies discuss the relationship between idiopathic BPPV and alterations in carbohydrate metabolism. In the present study, we found that both hyperglycemia and hyperinsulinemia are risk factors for the recurrence of BPPV, whereas a normal test was considered a protective factor; all these were statistically significant. Glucose intolerance that was already present was not statistically significant in the group evaluated. Hyperinsulinemia and hyperglycemia are risk factors for the recurrence of idiopathic BPPV and a normal exam is considered a protective factor. Copyright © 2015 Associação Brasileira de Otorrinolaringologia e Cirurgia Cérvico-Facial. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  20. Risk of Recurrent Pancreatitis and Progression to Chronic Pancreatitis After a First Episode of Acute Pancreatitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ahmed Ali, Usama; Issa, Yama; Hagenaars, Julia C.; Bakker, Olaf J.; van Goor, Harry; Nieuwenhuijs, Vincent B.; Bollen, Thomas L.; van Ramshorst, Bert; Witteman, Ben J.; Brink, Menno A.; Schaapherder, Alexander F.; Dejong, Cornelis H.; Spanier, B. W. Marcel; Heisterkamp, Joos; van der Harst, Erwin; van Eijck, Casper H.; Besselink, Marc G.; Gooszen, Hein G.; van Santvoort, Hjalmar C.; Boermeester, Marja A.

    2016-01-01

    Patients with a first episode of acute pancreatitis can develop recurrent or chronic pancreatitis (CP). However, little is known about the incidence or risk factors for these events. We performed a cross-sectional study of 669 patients with a first episode of acute pancreatitis admitted to 15 Dutch

  1. Risk of Recurrent Pancreatitis and Progression to Chronic Pancreatitis After a First Episode of Acute Pancreatitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ahmed Ali, Usama; Issa, Yama; Hagenaars, Julia C.; Bakker, Olaf J.; van Goor, Harry; Nieuwenhuijs, Vincent B.; Bollen, Thomas L.; van Ramshorst, Bert; Witteman, Ben J.; Brink, Menno A.; Schaapherder, Alexander F.; Dejong, Cornelis H.; Spanier, B. W Marcel; Heisterkamp, Joos; van der Harst, Erwin; van Eijck, Casper H.; Besselink, Marc G.; Gooszen, Hein G.; van Santvoort, Hjalmar C.; Boermeester, Marja A.

    2016-01-01

    Background & Aims: Patients with a first episode of acute pancreatitis can develop recurrent or chronic pancreatitis (CP). However, little is known about the incidence or risk factors for these events. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study of 669 patients with a first episode of acute

  2. Predictive effects of previous episodes on the risk of recurrence in depressive and bipolar disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kessing, Lars Vedel; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2005-01-01

    Findings from several studies have suggested that the risk of recurrence increases with the number of previous episodes in depressive and bipolar disorders. However, a comprehensive and critical review of the literature published during the past century shows that in several previous studies...

  3. The CAREFALL Triage instrument identifying risk factors for recurrent falls in elderly patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hensbroek, van P. Boele; Dijk, van N.; Breda, van G.F.; Scheffer, A.C.; Cammen, van der T.J.; Lips, P.T.A.M.; Goslings, J.C.; Rooij, S.E.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To validate the CAREFALL Triage Instrument (CTI), a self-administered questionnaire concerning modifiable risk factors for recurrent falls in elderly patients who experienced fall. METHODS: This study in patients 65 years or older who experienced fall was performed at the accident and

  4. The CAREFALL Triage instrument identifying risk factors for recurrent falls in elderly patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boele van Hensbroek, Pieter; van Dijk, Nynke; van Breda, G. Fenna; Scheffer, Alice C.; van der Cammen, Tischa J.; Lips, Paul; Goslings, J. Carel; de Rooij, Sophia E.

    2009-01-01

    Objective: To validate the CAREFALL Triage Instrument (CTI), a self-administered questionnaire concerning modifiable risk factors for recurrent falls in elderly patients who experienced fall. Methods: This study in patients 65 years or older who experienced fall was performed at the accident and

  5. Statin treatment and risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism: a nationwide cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, Cu Dinh; Andersson, Charlotte; Jensen, Thomas Bo; Gjesing, Anne; Schjerning Olsen, Anne-Marie; Malta Hansen, Carolina; Büller, Harry; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Gislason, Gunnar H.

    2013-01-01

    Statins may decrease the risk of primary venous thromboembolism (VTE), that is, deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) but the effect of statins in preventing recurrent VTE is less clear. The aim of this study was therefore to investigate the association between statin therapy and

  6. Risk of Recurrent Pancreatitis and Progression to Chronic Pancreatitis After a First Episode of Acute Pancreatitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ali, U.A.; Issa, Y.; Hagenaars, J.C.; Bakker, O.J.; Goor, H. van; Nieuwenhuijs, V.B.; Bollen, T.L.; Ramshorst, B. van; Witteman, B.J.; Brink, M.A.; Schaapherder, A.F.; Dejong, C.H.; Spanier, B.W.; Heisterkamp, J.; Harst, E. van der; Eijck, C.H. van; Besselink, M.G.; Gooszen, H.G.; Santvoort, H.C. van; Boermeester, M.A.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with a first episode of acute pancreatitis can develop recurrent or chronic pancreatitis (CP). However, little is known about the incidence or risk factors for these events. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study of 669 patients with a first episode of acute

  7. Multimodal Assessment of Recurrent MTBI across the Lifespan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skadi Wilke

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Recurrent mild traumatic brain injuries (mTBI and its neurological sequelae have been the focus of a large number of studies, indicating cognitive, structural, and functional brain alterations. However, studies often focused on single outcome measures in small cohorts of specific populations only. We conducted a multimodal evaluation of the impact of recurrent mTBI on a broad range of cognitive functions, regional brain volume, white matter integrity, and resting state functional connectivity (RSFC in young and older adults in the chronic stage (>6 months after the last mTBI. Seventeen young participants with mTBI (age: 24.2 ± 2.8 (mean ± SD and 21 group-wise matched healthy controls (age: 25.8 ± 5.4 (mean ± SD, as well as 17 older participants with mTBI (age: 62.7 ± 7.7 (mean ± SD and 16 group-wise matched healthy controls (age: 61.7 ± 5.9 (mean ± SD were evaluated. We found significant differences in the verbal fluency between young participants with mTBI and young healthy controls. Furthermore, differences in the regional volume of precuneus and medial orbitofrontal gyrus between participants with mTBI and controls for both age groups were seen. A significant age by group interaction for the right hippocampal volume was noted, indicating an accelerated hippocampal volume loss in older participants with mTBI. Other cognitive parameters, white matter integrity, and RSFC showed no significant differences. We confirmed some of the previously reported detrimental effects of recurrent mTBI, but also demonstrated inconspicuous findings for the majority of parameters.

  8. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. Medically Treated Diverticular Abscess Associated With High Risk of Recurrence and Disease Complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devaraj, Bikash; Liu, Wendy; Tatum, James; Cologne, Kyle; Kaiser, Andreas M

    2016-03-01

    complications at the time of recurrence were noted in 32 of 61 patients (52.5% of all CT-guided drainage, 71.1% of post-CT-guided drainage recurrences), and 13 (29.2%) of 45 patients with recurrence after successful CT-guided drainage subsequently required an urgent operation. The study was limited by its retrospective noncomparative design. Diverticular abscesses represent complicated diverticulitis and are associated with a high risk of recurrences and disease complications. Recurrences (contrary to other series) were often more severe than the index presentation. The successful CT-guided drainage of a diverticular abscess does not appear to lower the risks of future recurrence or complication rates and frequently is only a bridge to surgery. After initial successful nonoperative management, patients with diverticular abscess should be offered interval elective colectomy (see Video, Supplemental Digital Content 1, http://links.lww.com/DCR/A216).

  10. To identify the factors affecting the risk of recurrent febrile seizures in saudi children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamal, M.M.; Ahmed, W.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To identify the risk factors of recurrent febrile seizures (FS) in Saudi children in a Northern Province of Hail in Saudi Arabia. Study Design: Descriptive prospective study. Place and Duration of Study: Pediatric department, King Khalid Hospital Hail, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 01 October 2010 to 30 September 2011. Patients and Methods: A total of 132 children (age ranges from 03 months to 60 months) were included in the study, while they were admitted with the diagnosis of FS during the study period, in the Pediatric department of the King Khalid University Hospital, Hail. A predesigned study proforma was utilized for data collection. All the children included in the study were followed for a period of 01 year after discharge from the pediatric ward for any recurrence of FS. Results: During the study period 132 children were admitted for FS, the mean age of children in our sample was 16 months. There was a preponderance of male children. Among the causes of fever, mostly 63(47.73%) had symptoms of viral prodrome. Recurrent febrile seizure was found in 46 (34.85%) children. There was a statistically significant association between low temperature at onset of seizure and recurrent FS in 65.22% cases p-value= 0.001). Similarly, the association of duration of fever (= 6 hour) prior to onset of FS and recurrence was found to be significant in 56.52% (p-value= 0.001). Moreover it was found that lower age <12 months at onset of first FS and complex FS had a statistically significant association with its recurrence in 65.22% and 69.57% cases respectively p-value= 0.01 and 0.001). Non significant factors were sex and family history. Conclusion: FS is a common paediatric problem predominantly seen in males. Almost one third of these children are at risk for recurrence in later dates. The risk factors for these recurrences are modest rise in body temperature at the onset of seizure, younger age at presentation, onset of seizure within 6 hours of fever and

  11. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  12. Likelihood of Bone Recurrence in Prior Sites of Metastasis in Patients With High-Risk Neuroblastoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Polishchuk, Alexei L. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California at San Francisco School of Medicine and UCSF Benioff Children' s Hospital, San Francisco, California (United States); Li, Richard [Division of Radiation Oncology, Dana Farber/Boston Children' s Cancer and Blood Disorders Center, Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Hill-Kayser, Christine [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Little, Anthony [Division of Oncology, Children' s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Hawkins, Randall A. [Department of Radiology, University of California at San Francisco School of Medicine and UCSF Benioff Children' s Hospital, San Francisco, California (United States); Hamilton, Jeffrey; Lau, Michael [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California at San Francisco School of Medicine and UCSF Benioff Children' s Hospital, San Francisco, California (United States); Tran, Hung Chi [Division of Hematology/Oncology, Children' s Hospital of Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California (United States); Strahlendorf, Caron [Division of Hematology and Oncology, Department of Pediatrics, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Lemons, Richard S. [Division of Pediatric Hematology/Oncology, University of Utah School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, Utah (United States); Weinberg, Vivian [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California at San Francisco School of Medicine and UCSF Benioff Children' s Hospital, San Francisco, California (United States); Matthay, Katherine K.; DuBois, Steven G. [Department of Pediatrics, University of California at San Francisco School of Medicine and UCSF Benioff Children' s Hospital, San Francisco, California (United States); and others

    2014-07-15

    Purpose/Objectives: Despite recent improvements in outcomes, 40% of children with high-risk neuroblastoma will experience relapse, facing a guarded prognosis for long-term cure. Whether recurrences are at new sites or sites of original disease may guide decision making during initial therapy. Methods and Materials: Eligible patients were retrospectively identified from institutional databases at first metastatic relapse of high-risk neuroblastoma. Included patients had disease involving metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG)-avid metastatic sites at diagnosis and first relapse, achieved a complete or partial response with no more than one residual MIBG-avid site before first relapse, and received no total body irradiation or therapy with {sup 131}I-MIBG before first relapse. Anatomically defined metastatic sites were tracked from diagnosis through first relapse to determine tendency of disease to recur at previously involved versus uninvolved sites and to assess whether this pattern was influenced by site irradiation. Results: Of 159 MIBG-avid metastatic sites identified among 43 patients at first relapse, 131 (82.4%) overlapped anatomically with the set of 525 sites present at diagnosis. This distribution was similar for bone sites, but patterns of relapse were more varied for the smaller subset of soft tissue metastases. Among all metastatic sites at diagnosis in our subsequently relapsed patient cohort, only 3 of 19 irradiated sites (15.8%) recurred as compared with 128 of 506 (25.3%) unirradiated sites. Conclusions: Metastatic bone relapse in neuroblastoma usually occurs at anatomic sites of previous disease. Metastatic sites identified at diagnosis that did not receive radiation during frontline therapy appeared to have a higher risk of involvement at first relapse relative to previously irradiated metastatic sites. These observations support the current paradigm of irradiating metastases that persist after induction chemotherapy in high-risk patients. Furthermore

  13. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  14. D-dimer levels over time and the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism: an update of the Vienna prediction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichinger, Sabine; Heinze, Georg; Kyrle, Paul A

    2014-01-02

    Patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) can be stratified according to their recurrence risk based on their sex, the VTE location, and D-dimer measured 3 weeks after anticoagulation by the Vienna Prediction Model. We aimed to expand the model to also assess the recurrence risk from later points on. Five hundred and fifty-three patients with a first VTE were followed for a median of 68 months. We excluded patients with VTE provoked by a transient risk factor or female hormone intake, with a natural inhibitor deficiency, the lupus anticoagulant, or cancer. The study end point was recurrent VTE, which occurred in 150 patients. D-dimer levels did not substantially increase over time. Subdistribution hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) dynamically changed from 2.43 (1.57 to 3.77) at 3 weeks to 2.27 (1.48 to 3.48), 1.98 (1.30 to 3.02) , and 1.73 (1.11 to 2.69) at 3, 9, and 15 months in men versus women, from 1.84 (1.00 to 3.43) to 1.68 (0.91 to 3.10), 1.49 (0.79 to 2.81) , and 1.44 (0.76 to 2.72) in patients with proximal deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism compared with calf vein thrombosis, and from 1.30 (1.07 to 1.58) to 1.27 (1.06 to 1.51), 1.20 (1.02 to 1.41), and 1.13 (0.95 to 1.36) per doubling D-dimer. Using a dynamic landmark competing risks regression approach, we generated nomograms and a web-based calculator to calculate risk scores and recurrence rates from multiple times after anticoagulation. Risk of recurrent VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulation can be predicted from multiple random time points by integrating the patient's sex, location of first VTE, and serial D-dimer measurements.

  15. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  16. Liver stiffness value-based risk estimation of late recurrence after curative resection of hepatocellular carcinoma: development and validation of a predictive model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyu Sik Jung

    Full Text Available Preoperative liver stiffness (LS measurement using transient elastography (TE is useful for predicting late recurrence after curative resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC. We developed and validated a novel LS value-based predictive model for late recurrence of HCC.Patients who were due to undergo curative resection of HCC between August 2006 and January 2010 were prospectively enrolled and TE was performed prior to operations by study protocol. The predictive model of late recurrence was constructed based on a multiple logistic regression model. Discrimination and calibration were used to validate the model.Among a total of 139 patients who were finally analyzed, late recurrence occurred in 44 patients, with a median follow-up of 24.5 months (range, 12.4-68.1. We developed a predictive model for late recurrence of HCC using LS value, activity grade II-III, presence of multiple tumors, and indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min (ICG R15, which showed fairly good discrimination capability with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC of 0.724 (95% confidence intervals [CIs], 0.632-0.816. In the validation, using a bootstrap method to assess discrimination, the AUROC remained largely unchanged between iterations, with an average AUROC of 0.722 (95% CIs, 0.718-0.724. When we plotted a calibration chart for predicted and observed risk of late recurrence, the predicted risk of late recurrence correlated well with observed risk, with a correlation coefficient of 0.873 (P<0.001.A simple LS value-based predictive model could estimate the risk of late recurrence in patients who underwent curative resection of HCC.

  17. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  18. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  19. Patent foramen ovale is not associated with an increased risk of stroke recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feurer, R; Sadikovic, S; Sepp, D; Esposito, L; Schleef, M; Bockelbrink, A; Schwarze, J; Hemmer, B; Sander, D; Poppert, H

    2010-11-01

    Despite numerous studies suggesting a relationship between paradoxical embolism from a patent foramen ovale (PFO) and stroke, the role of PFO as a risk factor for cerebral ischaemia remains controversial. We therefore sought to determine the association between a RLS detected by contrast-enhanced transcranial Doppler ultrasonography (c-TCD) and recurrent stroke in an unselected population sample. We analyzed the records of 763 patients with diagnosis of cerebral ischaemia at our institution. All patients had undergone TCD-based detection of RLS. Embolic signals have been measured both under resting conditions and after performing a Valsalva maneuver. For follow-up, all patients were contacted by mail, which included a standardized questionnaire. Endpoints of follow-up were defined as recurrence of cerebral ischaemia, occurrence of myocardial infarction or death from any cause. Follow-up data were available in 639 patients (83.7%). At baseline, a RLS was detected in 140 (28%) men and in 114 (42%) women. Ten shunt-carriers (1.6%) and 32 patients (5.0%) without RLS had suffered a recurrent stroke. After adjustment for age, sex, and atrial fibrillation, the hazard ratio of RLS for stroke recurrence was 0.86 (95% CI 0.41-1.79). The condition of RLS at rest adjusted for age, sex, stroke subtype, and cardiovascular risk factors was not found to increase the risk of stroke substantially (HR 1.16 [95% CI 0.41-3.29]) Our data suggest that the risk of recurrent stroke in subjects with PFO is not significantly increased in comparison with subject without it. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 EFNS.

  20. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  1. Variable use of amiodarone is associated with a greater risk of recurrence of atrial fibrillation in the critically ill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrić, Goran; Udy, Andrew; Bandeshe, Hiran; Clement, Pierre; Boots, Rob

    2016-04-02

    Atrial fibrillation is a common rhythm disturbance in the general medical-surgical intensive care unit. Amiodarone is a popular drug in this setting but evidence to inform clinical practice remains scarce. We aimed to identify whether variation in the clinical use of amiodarone was associated with recurrent atrial fibrillation. This was a retrospective audit of 177 critically ill patients who developed new-onset atrial fibrillation after admission to a tertiary level medical-surgical trauma intensive care unit. Patterns of amiodarone prescription (including dosage schedule and duration) were assessed in relation to recurrence of atrial fibrillation during the intensive care unit stay. Known recurrence risk factors, such as inotrope administration, cardiac disease indices, Charlson Comorbidity Index, magnesium concentrations, fluid balance, and potassium concentrations, were also included in adjusted analysis using forward stepwise logistic regression modelling. The cohort had a median (interquartile range) age of 69 years (60-75), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evalution II score of 22 (17-28) and Charlson Comorbidity Index of 2 (1-4). A bolus dose of amiodarone followed by infusion (P = 0.02), in addition to continuing amiodarone infusion through to discharge from the intensive care unit (P < 0.001), were associated with less recurrent dysrhythmia. Recurrence after successful treatment was associated with ceasing amiodarone while an inotrope infusion continued (P < 0.001), and was more common in patients with a prior history of congestive cardiac failure (P = 0.04), and a diagnosis of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (P = 0.02). Amiodarone should be administered as a bolus dose followed immediately with an infusion when treating atrial fibrillation in the medical-surgical intensive care unit. Consideration should be given to continuing amiodarone infusions in patients on inotropes until they are ceased.

  2. Acute-Phase Blood Pressure Levels Correlate With a High Risk of Recurrent Strokes in Young-Onset Ischemic Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mustanoja, Satu; Putaala, Jukka; Gordin, Daniel; Tulkki, Lauri; Aarnio, Karoliina; Pirinen, Jani; Surakka, Ida; Sinisalo, Juha; Lehto, Mika; Tatlisumak, Turgut

    2016-06-01

    High blood pressure (BP) in acute stroke has been associated with a poor outcome; however, this has not been evaluated in young adults. The relationship between BP and long-term outcome was assessed in 1004 consecutive young, first-ever ischemic stroke patients aged 15 to 49 years enrolled in the Helsinki Young Stroke Registry. BP parameters included systolic (SBP) and diastolic BP, pulse pressure, and mean arterial pressure at admission and 24 hours. The primary outcome measure was recurrent stroke in the long-term follow-up. Adjusted for demographics and preexisting comorbidities, Cox regression models were used to assess independent BP parameters associated with outcome. Of our patients (63% male), 393 patients (39%) had prestroke hypertension and 358 (36%) used antihypertensive treatment. The median follow-up period was 8.9 years (interquartile range 5.7-13.2). Patients with a recurrent stroke (n=142, 14%) had significantly higher admission SBP, diastolic BP, pulse pressure, and mean arterial pressure (Pstroke. Patients with SBP ≥160 mm Hg compared with those with SBP strokes (hazard ratio 3.3 [95% confidence interval, 2.05-4.55]; Pstroke, while the 24-hour BP levels were not. In young ischemic stroke patients, high acute phase BP levels are independently associated with a high risk of recurrent strokes. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  3. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  4. Frequency Of Different Risk Factors Associated With Recurrent Urinary Tract Infection Among Postmenopausal Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jameel, Sadia; Mahmud, Syed Nayer

    2016-01-01

    Urinary Tract Infection is one of the most common infections encountered by women. These infections have the tendency to recur. In order to identify women at risk of recurrence there is a need to identify risk factors associated with it. Among women, factors predisposing to recurrent infections are not much explored. The study was done with an objective to determine different risk factors associated with recurrent UTI among postmenopausal women. This was a cross sectional study conducted at the Out Patient Department of Nephrology in Shifa International Hospital Islamabad over a period of six months, June 6th to December 5th 2012. Information regarding demographics and risk factors were recorded on a predesigned pro forma. A descriptive analysis was done for quantitative variables like age and qualitative variables like marital status and frequency of different risk factors. Stratification of risk factors according to age was also done. Hundred females were enrolled into the study after informed consent. The mean age of the study population was 64.4±9.48. 97% of the population was married. Out of 100 patients, 42 had high post-void volume, 35 had urinary incontinence and 17 patients were having cystocele. According to age stratification, most frequently affected age group was between 51-60 years (38%), followed by 61-70 years (36%), then 25% in more than 70 years, whereas only 1% was between 41-50 years. Recurrent UTI in postmenopausal females is most frequently associated with high post void volume and most frequently affected age group is between 51-60 years.

  5. Risk Factors Associated with Recurrent Urinary Tract Infection among Postmenopausal Women

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jameel, S.; Mahmud, S. N.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Urinary Tract Infection is one of the most common infections encountered by women. These infections have the tendency to recur. In order to identify women at risk of recurrence there is a need to identify risk factors associated with it. Among women, factors predisposing to recurrent infections are not much explored. The study was done with an objective to determine different risk factors associated with recurrent UTI among postmenopausal women. Methods: This was a cross sectional study conducted at the Out Patient Department of Nephrology in Shifa International Hospital Islamabad over a period of six months, June 6th to December 5th 2012. Information regarding demographics and risk factors were recorded on a predesigned proforma. A descriptive analysis was done for quantitative variables like age and qualitative variables like marital status and frequency of different risk factors. Stratification of risk factors according to age was also done. Results: Hundred females were enrolled into the study after informed consent. The mean age of the study population was 64.4±9.48. 97 percent of the population was married. Out of 100 patients, 42 had high post-void volume, 35 had urinary incontinence and 17 patients were having cystocele. According to age stratification, most frequently affected age group was between 51-60 years (38 percent), followed by 61-70 years (36 percent), then 25 percent in more than 70 years, whereas only 1 percent was between 41-50 years. Conclusion: Recurrent UTI in postmenopausal females is most frequently associated with high post void volume and most frequently affected age group is between 51-60 years. (author)

  6. Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

  7. The default mode network and recurrent depression: a neurobiological model of cognitive risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchetti, Igor; Koster, Ernst H W; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund J; De Raedt, Rudi

    2012-09-01

    A neurobiological account of cognitive vulnerability for recurrent depression is presented based on recent developments of resting state neural networks. We propose that alterations in the interplay between task positive (TP) and task negative (TN) elements of the Default Mode Network (DMN) act as a neurobiological risk factor for recurrent depression mediated by cognitive mechanisms. In the framework, depression is characterized by an imbalance between TN-TP components leading to an overpowering of TP by TN activity. The TN-TP imbalance is associated with a dysfunctional internally-focused cognitive style as well as a failure to attenuate TN activity in the transition from rest to task. Thus we propose the TN-TP imbalance as overarching neural mechanism involved in crucial cognitive risk factors for recurrent depression, namely rumination, impaired attentional control, and cognitive reactivity. During remission the TN-TP imbalance persists predisposing to vulnerability of recurrent depression. Empirical data to support this model is reviewed. Finally, we specify how this framework can guide future research efforts.

  8. Atrial ectopic activity in cryptogenic ischemic stroke and TIA: a risk factor for recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinho, João; Braga, Carlos Galvão; Rocha, Sofia; Santos, Ana Filipa; Gomes, André; Cabreiro, Ana; Magalhães, Sónia; Ferreira, Carla

    2015-02-01

    To characterize atrial ectopic activity in patients with cryptogenic ischemic stroke (CIS) or transient ischemic attack (TIA) and determine its prognostic significance. Retrospective cohort study, in which 184 patients with CIS or TIA who had performed 24-hour Holter electrocardiogram were included. The median follow-up was 27.5 months. Baseline clinical and imagiologic characteristics, etiologic investigation results, and ischemic stroke and TIA recurrences information were collected. Number of atrial premature complexes (APCs) per hour was categorized as less than 10 APCs/hour, 10-30 APCs/hour, and more than 30 APCs/hour. Most of the patients had less than 10 APCs/hour (82.6%), 8.2% had 10-30 APCs/hour, and 9.2% had more than 30 APCs/hour. Patients with more than 30 APCs/hour had a greater median left atrium diameter than patients with 30 APCs/hour or less (42 mm vs. 38 mm; 95% confidence interval [CI], .50-7.00; P = .003). Annual recurrence rate of CIS or TIA was 2.9% in patients with less than 10 APCs/hour, 11.0% in 10-30 APCs/hour, and 22.6% in more than 30 APCs/hour (P = .001). More than 30 APCs/hour were independently associated with recurrence risk in multivariate survival analysis (hazard ratio, 3.40; 95% CI, 1.12-10.32; P = .030). In patients with CIS or TIA, frequent atrial ectopic activity (>30 APCs/h) was independently associated with increased risk of stroke or TIA recurrence. Further studies need to validate frequent atrial ectopic activity as a risk factor for recurrence in cryptogenic stroke and confirm its role as a predictor of occult atrial fibrillation. Copyright © 2015 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk factors for recurrence after conservative treatment in early breast cancer; Preliminary report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, C O; Chung, E J; Lee, H D; Lee, K S; Oh, K K; Kim, G E [Yonsei Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Coll. of Medicine

    1997-12-01

    To evaluate our experience in the breast-conserving treatment for early breast cancer with special regard to recurrence pattern and related risk factors. Two hundred and sixteen patients with AJC stage I and II beast cancer who received breast conserving treatment between January 1991 and December 1994 were evaluated. Age distribution ranged from 23-80 year old with a median age of 44. One hundred and seventeen patients had T1 lesions and 99 patients had T2 lesions. Axillary lymph nodes were involved in 73 patients. All patients received a breast conserving surgery (wide excision to quadrantectomy) and axillary node dissection followed by radiotherapy. Ninety six patients received chemotherapy before or after radiotherapy. During the follow-up period (3-60 months, median 30 months), local recurrence were noted in six patients (true; 3, elsewhere; 1, skin; 2). Sixteen patients developed distant metastases as the first sign of recurrence at 8-38 months (median 20 months) after surgery. Among them, three patients simultaneously developed local recurrence with distant metastases. Contralateral breast cancer developed in one patient and non-mammary cancers developed in three patients. The actuarial 5 year survival rate was 88.4% (stage I: 96.7%, stage IIa: 95.2%, stage IIb 69.9%). Age, T stage, number of involved axillary lymph nodes, and AJC stage were risk factors for distant metastases in univariate analysis. In the multivariate analysis, the number of involved axillary lymph nodes was the most significant risk factor for metastases. Local recurrence was not common in the early years after radiotherapy. Distant metastases occurred at a steady rate during the first three years and was more common in the patients with larger tumors, higher number of involved axillary nodes, and younger age. (author).

  10. Risk factors for postoperative recurrence of spontaneous pneumothorax treated by video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery†.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imperatori, Andrea; Rotolo, Nicola; Spagnoletti, Marco; Festi, Luigi; Berizzi, Fabio; Di Natale, Davide; Nardecchia, Elisa; Dominioni, Lorenzo

    2015-05-01

    Over the past two decades, video-assisted thoracoscopic blebectomy and pleurodesis have been used as a safe and reliable option for treatment of spontaneous pneumothorax. The aim of this study is to evaluate the long-term outcome of video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) treatment of spontaneous pneumothorax in young patients, and to identify risk factors for postoperative recurrence. We retrospectively analysed the outcome of VATS treatment of spontaneous pneumothorax in our institution in 150 consecutive young patients (age ≤ 40 years) in the years 1997-2010. Treatment consisted of stapling blebectomy and partial parietal pleurectomy. After excluding 16 patients lost to follow-up, in 134 cases [110 men, 24 women; mean age, 25 ± 7 standard deviation years; median follow-up, 79 months (range: 36-187 months)], we evaluated postoperative complications, focusing on pneumothorax recurrence, thoracic dysaesthesia and chronic chest pain. Risk factors for postoperative pneumothorax recurrence were analysed by logistic regression. Of 134 treated patients, 3 (2.2%) required early reoperation (2 for bleeding; 1 for persistent air leaks). Postoperative (90-day) mortality was nil. Ipsilateral pneumothorax recurred in 8 cases (6.0%) [median time of recurrence, 43 months (range: 1-71 months)]. At univariate analysis, the recurrence rate was significantly higher in women (4/24) than in men (4/110; P = 0.026) and in patients with >7-day postoperative air leaks (P = 0.021). Multivariate analysis confirmed that pneumothorax recurrence correlated independently with prolonged air leaks (P = 0.037) and with female gender (P = 0.045). Chronic chest wall dysaesthesia was reported by 13 patients (9.7%). In 3 patients, (2.2%) chronic thoracic pain (analogical score >4) was recorded, but only 1 patient required analgesics more than once a month. VATS blebectomy and parietal pleurectomy is a safe procedure for treatment of spontaneous pneumothorax in young patients, with a 6% long

  11. Early and Late Recurrent Epistaxis Admissions: Patterns of Incidence and Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Oded; Shoffel-Havakuk, Hagit; Warman, Meir; Tzelnick, Sharon; Haimovich, Yaara; Kohlberg, Gavriel D; Halperin, Doron; Lahav, Yonatan

    2017-09-01

    Objective Epistaxis is a common complaint, yet few studies have focused on the incidence and risk factors of recurrent epistaxis. Our objective was to determine the patterns of incidence and risk factors for recurrent epistaxis admission (REA). Study Design Case series with chart review. Settings Single academic center. Subjects and Methods The medical records of patients admitted for epistaxis between 1999 and 2015 were reviewed. The follow-up period was defined as 3 years following initial admission. REAs were categorized as early (30 days) and late (31 days to 3 years) following initial admission. Logistic regression was used to identify potential predictors of REAs. Results A total of 653 patients were included. Eighty-six patients (14%) had REAs: 48 (7.5%) early and 38 (6.5%) late. Nonlinear incidence curve was demonstrated for both early and late REAs. Based on logistic regression, prior nasal surgery and anemia were independent risk factors for early REAs. According to multivariate analysis, thrombocytopenia was significantly associated with late REAs. Conclusion Early and late REAs demonstrate different risk predictors. Knowledge of such risk factors may help in risk stratification for this selected group of patients. All patients at risk should be advised on possible preventive measures. Patients at risk for early REA may benefit from a more proactive approach.

  12. Risk of First and Recurrent Stroke in Childhood Cancer Survivors Treated With Cranial and Cervical Radiation Therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, Sabine; Sear, Katherine; Hills, Nancy K.; Chettout, Nassim; Afghani, Shervin; Gastelum, Erica; Haas-Kogan, Daphne; Fullerton, Heather J.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To assess, in a retrospective cohort study, rates and predictors of first and recurrent stroke in patients treated with cranial irradiation (CRT) and/or cervical irradiation at ≤18 years of age. Methods and Materials: We performed chart abstraction (n=383) and phone interviews (n=104) to measure first and recurrent stroke in 383 patients who received CRT and/or cervical radiation at a single institution between 1980 and 2009. Stroke was defined as a physician diagnosis and symptoms consistent with stroke. Incidence of first stroke was number of first strokes per person-years of observation after radiation. We used survival analysis techniques to determine cumulative incidence of first and recurrent stroke. Results: Among 325 subjects with sufficient follow-up data, we identified 19 first strokes (13 ischemic, 4 hemorrhagic, 2 unknown subtype) occurring at a median age of 24 years (interquartile range 17-33 years) in patients treated with CRT. Imaging was reviewed when available (n=13), and the stroke was confirmed in 12. Overall rate of first stroke was 625 (95% confidence interval [CI] 378-977) per 100,000 person-years. The cumulative incidence of first stroke was 2% (95% CI 0.01%-5.3%) at 5 years and 4% (95% CI 2.0%-8.4%) at 10 years after irradiation. With each 100-cGy increase in the radiation dose, the stroke hazard increased by 5% (hazard ratio 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.09; P=.02). We identified 6 recurrent strokes; 5 had available imaging that confirmed the stroke. Median time to recurrence was 15 months (interquartile range 6 months-3.2 years) after first stroke. The cumulative incidence of recurrent stroke was 38% (95% CI 17%-69%) at 5 years and 59% (95% CI 27%-92%) at 10 years after first stroke. Conclusion: Cranial irradiation puts childhood cancer survivors at high risk of both first and recurrent stroke. Stroke prevention strategies for these survivors are needed

  13. Plate fixation for proximal chevron osteotomy has greater risk for hallux valgus recurrence than Kirschner wire fixation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Chul-Hyun; Ahn, Ji-Yong; Kim, Yu-Mi; Lee, Woo-Chun

    2013-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the results of hallux valgus surgery between feet fixed with Kirschner wires and those fixed with a plate and screws. Between December 2008 and November 2009, 53 patients (62 feet) were treated with proximal chevron osteotomy and distal soft tissue procedure for symptomatic moderate to severe hallux valgus deformity. Thirty-four patients (41 feet) were stabilised with Kirschner wires (K-wire group) and 19 patients (21 feet) were stabilised with a locking plate (plate group). Clinical results were assessed using American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society (AOFAS) score. Radiographic parameters were compared between these groups. Recurrence rate at the last follow-up was compared between the K-wire and plate groups. Mean AOFAS score was lower in the plate group, however, the difference between the groups was not statistically significant in AOFAS score at the last follow-up. Hallux valgus angle and intermetatarsal angle were significantly larger in the plate group at the last follow-up. Mean 1-2 metatarsal (MT) distance on immediately postoperative radiographs was significant larger in the plate group. Four (9.8 %) of the 41 feet in the K-wire group and 7 (33.3 %) of the 21 feet in the plate group showed hallux valgus recurrence at the last follow-up. The plate group had a significantly higher risk of recurrence than the K-wire group. Fixation of proximal chevron osteotomy using a plate and screws has a greater risk of hallux valgus recurrence than fixation using Kirschner wires.

  14. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  15. Surgeon Experience is Strongly Associated with Biochemical Recurrence after Radical Prostatectomy for all Preoperative Risk Categories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Eric A; Bianco, Fernando J; Serio, Angel M; Eastham, James A; Kattan, Michael W; Pontes, J. Edson; Vickers, Andrew J; Scardino, Peter T

    2013-01-01

    Background We have previously demonstrated that there is a learning curve for open radical prostatectomy. In this study we sought to determine whether the effects of the learning curve are modified by patient risk as defined by preoperative tumor characteristics. Methods The study included 7,683 eligible prostate cancer patients treated with open radical prostatectomy by one of 72 surgeons. Surgeon experience was coded as the total prior number of radical prostatectomies conducted by the surgeon prior to a patient’s surgery. Multivariable survival-time regression models were used to evaluate the association between surgeon experience and biochemical recurrence, separately for each preoperative risk group. Results We saw no evidence that patient risk affects the learning curve: there was a statistically significant association between biochemical recurrence and surgeon experience in all analyses. The absolute risk difference for a patient receiving treatment from a surgeon with 10 compared to 250 prior radical prostatectomies was 6.6% (95% C.I. 3.4%, 10.3%), 12.0% (6.9%, 18.2%) and 9.7% (1.2%, 18.2%) for patients at low, medium and high preoperative risk patients. Recurrence-free probability for patients with low risk disease approached 100% for the most experienced surgeons Conclusions Cancer control after radical prostatectomy improves with increasing surgeon experience irrespective of patient risk. Excellent rates of cancer control for patients with low risk disease treated by the most experienced surgeons suggests that the primary reason such patients recur is inadequate surgical technique. The results have significant implications for clinical care. PMID:18423716

  16. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  17. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  18. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  19. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  3. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  4. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  5. Stenting Prior to Cystectomy is an Independent Risk Factor for Upper Urinary Tract Recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, Bernhard; Furrer, Marc A; Wuethrich, Patrick Y; Burkhard, Fiona C; Thalmann, George N; Roth, Beat

    2017-12-01

    Patients with bladder cancer who present with hydronephrosis may require drainage of the affected kidney before receiving further cancer treatment. Drainage can be done by retrograde stenting or percutaneously. However, retrograde stenting carries the risk of tumor cell spillage to the upper urinary tract. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether patients with bladder cancer are at higher risk for upper urinary tract recurrence if retrograde stenting has been performed prior to radical cystectomy. We retrospectively analyzed the records of 1,005 consecutive patients with bladder cancer who underwent radical cystectomy at our department between January 2000 and June 2016. Negative intraoperative ureteral margins were mandatory for study inclusion. Patients received regular followup according to our institutional protocol, including imaging of the upper urinary tract and urine cytology. Preoperative drainage of the upper urinary tract was performed in 114 of the 1,005 patients (11%), including in 53 (46%) by Double-J® stenting and in 61 (54%) by percutaneous nephrostomy. Recurrence developed in the upper urinary tract in 31 patients (3%) at a median of 17 months after cystectomy, including 7 of 53 (13%) in the Double-J group, 0% in the nephrostomy group and 24 of 891 (3%) in the no drainage group. Multivariate regression analysis revealed a higher risk of upper urinary tract recurrence if patients underwent Double-J stenting (HR 4.54, 95% CI 1.43-14.38, p = 0.01) and preoperative intravesical instillations (HR 2.94, 95% CI 1.40-6.16, p = 0.004). Patients who undergo Double-J stenting prior to radical cystectomy are at higher risk for upper urinary tract recurrence. If preoperative upper urinary tract drainage is required, percutaneous drainage might be recommended. Copyright © 2017 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Statin Adherence Is Associated With Reduced Recurrent Stroke Risk in Patients With or Without Atrial Fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Alexander C; Conell, Carol; Ren, Xiushui; Kamel, Hooman; Chan, Sheila L; Rao, Vivek A; Johnston, S Claiborne

    2017-07-01

    Outpatient statin use reduces the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke among patients with stroke of atherothrombotic cause. It is not known whether statins have similar effects in ischemic stroke caused by atrial fibrillation (AFib). We studied outpatient statin adherence, measured by percentage of days covered, and the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke in patients with or without AFib in a 21-hospital integrated healthcare delivery system. Among 6116 patients with ischemic stroke discharged on a statin over a 5-year period, 1446 (23.6%) had a diagnosis of AFib at discharge. The mean statin adherence rate (percentage of days covered) was 85, and higher levels of percentage of days covered correlated with greater degrees of low-density lipoprotein suppression. In multivariable survival models of recurrent ischemic stroke over 3 years, after controlling for age, sex, race/ethnicity, medical comorbidities, and hospital center, higher statin adherence predicted reduced stroke risk both in patients without AFib (hazard ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.97) and in patients with AFib (hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.81). This association was robust to adjustment for the time in the therapeutic range for international normalized ratio among AFib subjects taking warfarin (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.41-0.89). The relationship between statin adherence and reduced recurrent stroke risk is as strong among patients with AFib as it is among patients without AFib, suggesting that AFib status should not be a reason to exclude patients from secondary stroke prevention with a statin. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  7. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  8. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  9. Risk of recurrence and subsequent delivery after obstetric anal sphincter injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baghestan, E; Irgens, L M; Børdahl, P E; Rasmussen, S

    2012-01-01

    To investigate the recurrence risk, the likelihood of having further deliveries and mode of delivery after third to fourth degree obstetric anal sphincter injuries (OASIS). Population-based cohort study. The Medical Birth Registry of Norway. A cohort of 828,864 mothers with singleton, vertex-presenting infants, weighing 500 g or more, during the period 1967-2004. Comparison of women with and without a history of OASIS with respect to the occurrence of OASIS, subsequent delivery rate and planned caesarean rate. OASIS in second and third deliveries, subsequent delivery rate and mode of delivery. Adjusted odds ratios of the recurrence of OASIS in women with a history of OASIS in the first, and in both the first and second deliveries, were 4.2 (95% CI 3.9-4.5; 5.6%) and 10.6 (95% CI 6.2-18.1; 9.5%), respectively, relative to women without a history of OASIS. Instrumental deliveries, in particular forceps deliveries, birthweights of 3500 g or more and large maternity units were associated with a recurrence of OASIS. Instrumental delivery did not further increase the excess recurrence risk associated with high birthweight. A man who fathered a child whose delivery was complicated by OASIS was more likely to father another child whose delivery was complicated by OASIS in another woman who gave birth in the same maternity unit (adjusted OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.2-3.7; 5.6%). However, if the deliveries took place in different maternity units, the recurrence risk was not significantly increased (OR 1.3; 95% CI 0.8-2.1; 4.4%). The subsequent delivery rate was not different in women with and without previous OASIS, whereas women with a previous OASIS were more often scheduled to caesarean delivery. Recurrence risks in second and third deliveries were high. A history of OASIS had little or no impact on the rates of subsequent deliveries. Women with previous OASIS were delivered more frequently by planned caesarean delivery. © 2011 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of

  10. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  11. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  12. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  13. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  14. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  15. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  16. Growth hormone treatment and risk of recurrence or progression of brain tumors in children: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogarin, Roberto; Steinbok, Paul

    2009-03-01

    Brain tumors are one of the most common types of solid neoplasm in children. As life expectancy of these patients has increased with new and improved therapies, the morbidities associated with the treatments and the tumor itself have become more important. One of the most common morbidities is growth hormone deficiency, and since recombinant growth hormone (GH) became available, its use has increased exponentially. There is concern that in the population of children with brain tumors, GH treatment might increase the risk of tumor recurrence or progression or the appearance of a second neoplasm. In the light of this ongoing concern, the current literature has been reviewed to provide an update on the risk of tumor recurrence, tumor progression, or new intracranial tumor formation when GH is used to treat GH deficiency in children, who have had or have intracranial tumors. On the basis of this review, the authors conclude that the use of GH in patients with brain tumor is safe. GH therapy is not associated with an increased risk of central nervous system tumor progression or recurrence, leukemia (de novo or relapse), or extracranial non-leukemic neoplasms.

  17. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  18. Review of guidance on recurrence risk management for general practitioners in breast cancer, colorectal cancer and melanoma guidelines.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spronk, I.; Korevaar, J.C.; Burgers, J.S.; Albreht, T.; Schellevis, F.G.

    2017-01-01

    Background. General practitioners (GPs) will face cancer recurrences more frequently due to the rising number of cancer survivors and greater involvement of GPs in the follow-up care. Currently, GPs are uncertain about managing recurrence risks and may need more guidance. Objective. To explore what

  19. Maternal smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of recurrent wheezing during the first years of life (BAMSE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lannerö, Eva; Wickman, Magnus; Pershagen, Goran; Nordvall, Lennart

    2006-01-05

    Exposure to cigarette smoking during foetal and early postnatal life may have implications for lung health. The aim of this study was to assess the possible effects of such exposure in utero on lower respiratory disease in children up to two years of age. A birth cohort of 4089 newborn infants was followed for two years using parental questionnaires. When the infant was two months old the parents completed a questionnaire on various lifestyle factors, including maternal smoking during pregnancy and after birth. At one and two years of age information was obtained by questionnaire on symptoms of allergic and respiratory diseases as well as on environmental exposures, particularly exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). Adjustments were made for potential confounders. When the mother had smoked during pregnancy but not after that, there was an increased risk of recurrent wheezing up to two years' age, ORadj = 2.2, (95% CI 1.3-3.6). The corresponding OR was 1.6, (95% CI 1.2-2.3) for reported exposure to ETS with or without maternal smoking in utero. Maternal smoking during pregnancy but no exposure to ETS also increased the risk of doctor's diagnosed asthma up to two years of age, ORadj = 2.1, (95% CI 1.2-3.7). Exposure to maternal cigarette smoking in utero is a risk factor for recurrent wheezing, as well as doctor's diagnosed asthma in children up to two years of age.

  20. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  1. [Risk factors of venous thromboembolism recurrence and the predictive value of simplified pulmonary embolism severity index in medical inpatients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, C L; Zhou, H X; Tang, Y J; Wang, L; Yi, Q; Liang, Z A

    2016-04-12

    To explore the risk factors of venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence and the predictive value of simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) in medical inpatients. A total of 149 consecutive patients with first diagnosed VTE from the medical departments of West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2011 and December 2012 were enrolled and followed-up for 24 months. The VTE recurrence rate was calculated and univariate and multivariate cox proportional hazards regression analysis were performed to identify the risk factors associated with VTE recurrence. All the patients were evaluated by sPESI, and survival analysis was used to explore its value in predicting VTE recurrence in these medical patients. Out of the included 149 patients, 23(15.4%) patients had VTE recurrence during the 2 years' follow-up and median recurrence time was 167 days. The univariate analysis showed bed rest, severe lung disease, nephrotic syndrome, inappropriate anticoagulant therapy, smoking, diabetes, and malignant neoplasm might be associated with VTE recurrence (P=0.043, 0.006, 0.009, 0.032, 0.098, 0.048, 0.021). Among these risk factors, the multivariate analysis revealed severe lung disease, nephrotic syndrome, and malignant neoplasm were the independent risk factors (HR=3.45, 5.67, 3.60; P=0.020, 0.020, 0.047); while for inappropriate anticoagulant therapy, the P value was marginal (HR=3.94, 95% CI: 0.99-15.63, P=0.051). The median sPESI scores of the patients with VTE recurrence was higher than that of the patients without VTE recurrence[1(1, 2) vs 0(0, 1), P=0.001], and patients with sPESI≥1 were associated with 5.57-fold increased risk of VTE recurrence compared with patients with sPESI=0 (95%CI: 1.79-17.30, P=0.001). Survival analysis also showed that the 2-year cumulative VTE recurrence rate of patients with sPESI≥1 was significant higher than that of patients with sPESI=0 (38.4% vs 5.7%, P=0.001). The medical VTE patients have high VTE recurrence risk

  2. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  3. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  4. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  5. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  6. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  7. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  8. Risk factors associated with recurrent hemorrhage after the initial improvement of colonic diverticular bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishikawa, Hiroki; Maruo, Takanori; Tsumura, Takehiko; Sekikawa, Akira; Kanesaka, Takashi; Osaki, Yukio

    2013-03-01

    We elucidated risk factors contributing to recurrent hemorrhage after initial improvement of colonic diverticular bleeding. 172 consecutive hospitalized patients diagnosed with colonic diverticular bleeding were analyzed. Recurrent hemorrhage after initial improvement of colonic diverticular bleeding is main outcome measure. We analyzed factors contributing to recurrent hemorrhage risk in univariate and multivariate analyses. The length of the observation period after improvement of colonic diverticular bleeding was 26.4 +/- 14.6 months (range, 1-79 months). The cumulative recurrent hemorrhage rate in all patients at 1 and 2 years was 34.8% and 41.8%, respectively. By univariate analysis, age > 70 years (P = 0.021), BMI > 25 kg/m2 (P = 0.013), the use of anticoagulant drugs (P = 0.034), the use of NSAIDs (P = 0.040), history of hypertension (P = 0.011), history of smoking (P = 0.030) and serum creatinine level > 1.5 mg/dL (P bleeding. By multivariate analysis, age > 70 years (Hazard ratio (HR), 1.905, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.067-3.403, P = 0.029), history of hypertension (HR, 0.493, 95% CI, 0.245-0.993, P = 0.048) and serum creatinine level > 1.5 mg/dL (HR, 95% CI, 0.288-0.964, P = 0.044) were shown to be significant independent risk factors. Close observation after the initial improvement of colonic diverticular bleeding is needed, especially in elderly patients or patients with history of hypertension or renal deficiency.

  9. Genetic Alterations and Their Clinical Implications in High-Recurrence Risk Papillary Thyroid Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Min-Young; Ku, Bo Mi; Kim, Hae Su; Lee, Ji Yun; Lim, Sung Hee; Sun, Jong-Mu; Lee, Se-Hoon; Park, Keunchil; Oh, Young Lyun; Hong, Mineui; Jeong, Han-Sin; Son, Young-Ik; Baek, Chung-Hwan; Ahn, Myung-Ju

    2017-10-01

    Papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs) frequently involve genetic alterations. The objective of this study was to investigate genetic alterations and further explore the relationships between these genetic alterations and clinicopathological characteristics in a high-recurrence risk (node positive, N1) PTC group. Tumor tissue blocks were obtained from 240 surgically resected patients with histologically confirmed stage III/IV (pT3/4 or N1) PTCs. We screened gene fusions using NanoString's nCounter technology and mutational analysis was performed by direct DNA sequencing. Data describing the clinicopathological characteristics and clinical courses were retrospectively collected. Of the 240 PTC patients, 207 (86.3%) had at least one genetic alteration, including BRAF mutation in 190 patients (79.2%), PIK3CA mutation in 25 patients (10.4%), NTRK1/3 fusion in six patients (2.5%), and RET fusion in 24 patients (10.0%). Concomitant presence of more than two genetic alterations was seen in 36 patients (15%). PTCs harboring BRAF mutation were associated with RET wild-type expression (p=0.001). RET fusion genes have been found to occur with significantly higher frequency in N1b stage patients (p=0.003) or groups of patients aged 45 years or older (p=0.031); however, no significant correlation was found between other genetic alterations. There was no trend toward favorable recurrence-free survival or overall survival among patients lacking genetic alterations. In the selected high-recurrence risk PTC group, most patients had more than one genetic alteration. However, these known alterations could not entirely account for clinicopathological features of high-recurrence risk PTC.

  10. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  11. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  12. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  13. Carotid Web (Intimal Fibromuscular Dysplasia) Has High Stroke Recurrence Risk and Is Amenable to Stenting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haussen, Diogo C; Grossberg, Jonathan A; Bouslama, Mehdi; Pradilla, Gustavo; Belagaje, Samir; Bianchi, Nicolas; Allen, Jason W; Frankel, Michael; Nogueira, Raul G

    2017-11-01

    Carotid webs have been increasingly recognized as a cause of recurrent stroke, but evidence remains scarce. We aim to report the clinical outcomes and first series of carotid stenting in a cohort of patients with strokes from symptomatic carotid webs. Prospective and consecutive data of patients web was defined by a shelf-like/linear filling defect in the posterior internal carotid artery bulb by computed tomographic angiography. Twenty-four patients were identified (91.6% strokes/8.4% transient ischemic attacks [TIAs]). Median age was 46 (41-59) years, 61% were female, and 75% were black. Median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was 10.5 (3.0-16.0) and ASPECTS (Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score) was 8 (7-8). There were no parenchymal hemorrhages, and 96% of patients were independent at 3 months. All webs caused webs (58%), median ipsilateral web length was larger than contralateral (3.1 [3.0-4.5] mm versus 2.6 [1.85-2.9] mm; P =0.01), respectively. Twenty-nine percent of patients had thrombus superimposed on the symptomatic carotid web. A recurrent stroke/TIA involving the territory of the previously symptomatic web occurred in 7 (32%; 6 strokes/1 TIA) patients: 3 1 year of follow-up. Two recurrences occurred on dual antiplatelet therapy, 3 on antiplatelet monotherapy, 1 within 24 hours of thrombolysis, and 1 off antithrombotics. Median follow-up was 12.2 (8.0-18.0) months. Sixteen (66%) patients were stented at a median 12.2 (7.0-18.7) days after stroke with no periprocedural complications. No recurrent strokes/TIAs occurred in stented individuals (median follow-up of 4 [2.4-12.0] months). Carotid web is associated with high recurrent stroke/TIA risk, despite antithrombotic use, and is amenable to carotid stenting. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  14. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  15. Recurrent tricuspid insufficiency: is the surgical repair technique a risk factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, Ibrahim; Koksal, Cengiz; Cakalagaoglu, Canturk; Sahin, Muslum; Yanartas, Mehmet; Ay, Yasin; Demir, Serdar

    2013-01-01

    This study compares the medium-term results of De Vega, modified De Vega, and ring annuloplasty techniques for the correction of tricuspid insufficiency and investigates the risk factors for recurrent grades 3 and 4 tricuspid insufficiency after repair. In our clinic, 93 patients with functional tricuspid insufficiency underwent surgical tricuspid repair from May 2007 through October 2010. The study was retrospective, and all the data pertaining to the patients were retrieved from hospital records. Functional capacity, recurrent tricuspid insufficiency, and risk factors aggravating the insufficiency were analyzed for each patient. In the medium term (25.4 ± 10.3 mo), the rates of grades 3 and 4 tricuspid insufficiency in the De Vega, modified De Vega, and ring annuloplasty groups were 31%, 23.1%, and 6.1%, respectively. Logistic regression analysis revealed that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, left ventricular dysfunction (ejection fraction, tricuspid insufficiency. Medium-term survival was 90.6% for the De Vega group, 96.3% for the modified De Vega group, and 97.1% for the ring annuloplasty group. Ring annuloplasty provided the best relief from recurrent tricuspid insufficiency when compared with DeVega annuloplasty. Modified De Vega annuloplasty might be a suitable alternative to ring annuloplasty when rings are not available.

  16. Prenatal vitamin D supplementation reduces risk of asthma/recurrent wheeze in early childhood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wolsk, Helene M; Chawes, Bo L; Litonjua, Augusto A

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We recently published two independent randomized controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy, both indicating a >20% reduced risk of asthma/recurrent wheeze in the offspring by 3 years of age. However, neither reached statistical significance. OBJECTIVE: To perform......) or placebo. All women also received a prenatal vitamin containing 400 IU/d vitamin D3. The primary outcome was asthma/recurrent wheeze from 0-3yrs. Secondary end-points were specific IgE, total IgE, eczema and lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI). We conducted random effects combined analyses...... of the treatment effect, individual patient data (IPD) meta-analyses, and analyses stratified by 25(OH)D level at study entry. RESULTS: The analysis showed a 25% reduced risk of asthma/recurrent wheeze at 0-3yrs: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.74 (95% CI, 0.57-0.96), p = 0.02. The effect was strongest among women...

  17. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  18. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  19. Diagnostic Ureteroscopy Prior to Radical Nephroureterectomy for Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma Increased the Risk of Intravesical Recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Ping; Xie, Nan; Yang, Lu; Liu, Liangren; Tang, Zhuang; Wei, Qiang

    2018-01-01

    To assess the impact of diagnostic ureteroscopy (URS) prior to radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) on intravesical recurrence (IVR) in patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC). A systematic literature search of the Medline, Embase, PubMed, and Cochrane library was performed in August 2017. Cumulative analyses of available hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% CI were conducted using Stata version 12.0. Eleven studies including 4,057 participants were included, with a total of 1,403 patients diagnosed with IVR during the follow-up period. The pooled HRs of eight studies suggested that diagnostic URS prior to RNU significantly increased the IVR risk after RNU (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.31-1.77; p guides decisions in UTUC, more future studies should be performed to find a novel way to mitigate the potential risk of IVR after RNU, such as chemoprophylaxis after endoscopy. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  20. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  1. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  2. NADiA® ProsVue™ PSA Slope Is an Independent Prognostic Marker for Identifying Men at Reduced Risk for Clinical Recurrence of Prostate Cancer after Radical Prostatectomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moul, Judd W.; Lilja, Hans; Semmes, O. John; Lance, Raymond S.; Vessella, Robert L.; Fleisher, Martin; Mazzola, Clarisse; Sarno, Mark J.; Stevens, Barbara; Klem, Robert E.; McDermed, Jonathan E.; Triebell, Melissa T.; Adams, Thomas H.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To validate the hypothesis that men displaying serum PSA slopes ≤2.0 pg/mL/month postprostatectomy, measured with a new immuno-PCR diagnostic test (NADiA® ProsVue™) were at a reduced risk of clinical recurrence as determined by positive biopsy, imaging or death due to prostate cancer. Methods From 4 clinical sites, we selected a cohort of 304 men followed up to 17.6 years postprostatectomy for clinical recurrence. We assessed the prognostic value of a PSA slope cutpoint of 2.0 pg/mL/month against established risk factors to identify men at very low risk of clinical recurrence using uni- and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results The univariate HR (95% CI) of a PSA slope >2.0 pg/mL/month was 18.3 (10.6–31.8), compared to a slope ≤2.0 pg/mL/month (P free survival was 4.8 years versus >10 years in the 2 groups (P <0.0001). Multivariate HR for PSA slope with the covariates of preprostatectomy PSA, pathologic stage and Gleason score was 9.8 (5.4–17.8), an 89.8% risk reduction, for men with PSA slopes ≤2.0 pg/mL/month (P <0.0001). Gleason Score (<7 vs. ≥7) was the only other significant predictor (HR 5.4, 2.1–13.8, P = 0.0004). Conclusions Clinical recurrence following radical prostatectomy is often difficult to predict since established factors do not reliably stratify risk. We demonstrate that a NADiA ProsVue slope ≤2.0 pg/mL/month postprostatectomy is prognostic for reduced risk of prostate cancer recurrence and adds predictive power to established risk factors. PMID:23107099

  3. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  4. Trends in risk of recurrence after the first ischemic stroke in adults younger than 55 years of age in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giang, Kok Wai; Björck, Lena; Ståhl, Christina H; Nielsen, Susanne; Sandström, Tatiana Z; Jern, Christina; Torén, Kjell; Rosengren, Annika

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies on stroke recurrence in younger adults often contain small sample size which makes it difficult to study trends in stroke recurrence over a long period of time. The aim of the present study was to investigate temporal trends in the risk of recurrence in younger patients with a first ischemic stroke. All men and women aged 18-54 years who had survived at least 28 days after a first ischemic stroke from 1987 to 2006 were identified in the Swedish Inpatient Register. The patients were stratified into four 5-year periods according to their admission period and were followed up for a total of four years after the index event with regard to recurrent ischemic stroke. A Cox regression model was used to analyze the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke. Of the 17,149 ischemic stroke patients who were identified, 2432 (14.2%) had a recurrent ischemic stroke event within four years. From the first to the last periods (1987-1991 versus 2002-2006), the four-year risk of recurrent ischemic stroke decreased by 55% (hazard ratio 0.45, 95% confidence interval 0.39-0.53) in men and 59% (hazard ratio 0.41, 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.50) in women. The cumulative four-year risk was 11.8% (95% CI 10.55-13.25) in men and 9.8% (95% CI 8.40-11.46) in women during the last five-year period (2002-2006). The risk of recurrence among younger ischemic stroke patients has decreased over the past 20 years. Despite these improvements, younger patients are still at a high risk for recurrent ischemic stroke. © 2016 World Stroke Organization.

  5. Posttraumatic stress disorder increases risk for suicide attempt in adults with recurrent major depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Daniel; Wilcox, Holly C; MacKinnon, Dean F; Mondimore, Francis M; Schweizer, Barbara; Jancic, Dunya; Coryell, William H; Weissman, Myrna M; Levinson, Douglas F; Potash, James B

    2013-10-01

    Genetics of Recurrent Early-Onset Depression study (GenRED II) data were used to examine the relationship between posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and attempted suicide in a population of 1,433 individuals with recurrent early-onset major depressive disorder (MDD). We tested the hypothesis that PTSD resulting from assaultive trauma increases risk for attempted suicide among individuals with recurrent MDD. Data on lifetime trauma exposures and clinical symptoms were collected using the Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies version 3.0 and best estimate diagnoses of MDD, PTSD, and other DSM-IV Axis I disorders were reported with best estimated age of onset. The lifetime prevalence of suicide attempt in this sample was 28%. Lifetime PTSD was diagnosed in 205 (14.3%) participants. We used discrete time-survival analyses to take into account timing in the PTSD-suicide attempt relationship while adjusting for demographic variables (gender, race, age, and education level) and comorbid diagnoses prior to trauma exposure. PTSD was an independent predictor of subsequent suicide attempt (HR = 2.5, 95% CI: 1.6, 3.8; P < .0001). Neither assaultive nor nonassaultive trauma without PTSD significantly predicted subsequent suicide attempt after Bonferroni correction. The association between PTSD and subsequent suicide attempt was driven by traumatic events involving assaultive violence (HR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.3, 2.2; P< .0001). Among those with recurrent MDD, PTSD appears to be a vulnerability marker of maladaptive responses to traumatic events and an independent risk factor for attempted suicide. Additional studies examining differences between those with and without PTSD on biological measures might shed light on this potential vulnerability. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  7. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  8. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  9. Personality in remitted major depressive disorder with single and recurrent episodes assessed with the Temperament and Character Inventory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teraishi, Toshiya; Hori, Hiroaki; Sasayama, Daimei; Matsuo, Junko; Ogawa, Shintaro; Ishida, Ikki; Nagashima, Anna; Kinoshita, Yukiko; Ota, Miho; Hattori, Kotaro; Higuchi, Teruhiko; Kunugi, Hiroshi

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies consistently reported increased harm avoidance (HA) assessed with the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI) in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). However, such findings may have been related with depression severity and number of depressive episodes. The aims of the present study were twofold: to examine TCI personality profile in remitted MDD (DSM-IV) patients and to compare TCI personality between MDD patients with single episode (SGL-MDD) and those with recurrent episodes (REC-MDD) in order to elucidate personality profile associated with recurrence. TCI was administered to 86 outpatients with remitted SGL-MDD (12 male and 17 female patients; mean age 43.2 ± 12.1 years) and REC-MDD (26 male and 31 female patients; 40.3 ± 11.6 years), and 529 healthy controls (225 men and 304 women; 43.4 ± 15.5 years), matched for age, sex and education years. Logistic regression analyses were performed in which single/recurrent episodes of depression were the dependent variable and age, sex, age of onset, family history of psychiatric disease and TCI scores were entered as possible predictors. The remitted MDD patients had significantly higher scores on HA (P differences in personality profile between remitted MDD patients and controls, and between remitted REC-MDD and SGL-MDD patients, suggesting that they are trait markers. HA and fatigability might be useful to assess risk for recurrence of depression. © 2014 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2014 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

  10. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  11. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  12. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  13. Labour dystocia--risk of recurrence and instrumental delivery in following labour--a population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandström, A; Cnattingius, S; Wikström, A K; Stephansson, O

    2012-12-01

    To investigate risk of recurrence of labour dystocia and mode of delivery in second labour after taking first labour and fetal and maternal characteristics into account. A population-based cohort study. The Swedish Medical Birth Register from 1992 to 2006. A total of 239 953 women who gave birth to their first and second singleton infants in cephalic presentation at ≥ 37 weeks of gestation with spontaneous onset of labour. We used logistic regression analysis to estimate crude and adjusted odds ratios. Labour dystocia and mode of delivery in second labour. Overall labour dystocia affected only 12% of women with previous dystocia. Regardless of mode of first delivery, rates of dystocia in the second labour were higher in women with than without previous dystocia, but were more pronounced in women with previous caesarean section (34%). Analyses with risk score groups for dystocia (risk factors were long interpregnancy interval, maternal age ≥ 35 years, obesity, short maternal stature, not cohabiting and post-term pregnancy) showed that risk of instrumental delivery in second labour increased with previous dystocia and increasing risk score. Among women with trial of labour after caesarean section with previous dystocia and a risk score of 3 or more, 66% had a vaginal instrumental or caesarean delivery (17 and 49%, respectively). In women with trial of labour after caesarean section without previous dystocia and a risk score of 0, corresponding risk was 32% (14 and 18%, respectively). Previous labour dystocia increases the risk of dystocia in subsequent delivery. Taking first labour and fetal and maternal characteristics into account is important in the risk assessments for dystocia and instrumental delivery in second labour. © 2012 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology © 2012 RCOG.

  14. Recurrent concussion and risk of depression in retired professional football players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guskiewicz, Kevin M; Marshall, Stephen W; Bailes, Julian; McCrea, Michael; Harding, Herndon P; Matthews, Amy; Mihalik, Johna Register; Cantu, Robert C

    2007-06-01

    The purpose of our study was to investigate the association between prior head injury and the likelihood of being diagnosed with clinical depression among retired professional football players with prior head injury exposure. A general health questionnaire, including information about prior injuries, the SF-36 (Short Form 36), and other markers for depression, was completed by 2552 retired professional football players with an average age of 53.8 (+/-13.4) yr and an average professional football-playing career of 6.6 (+/-3.6) yr. A second questionnaire focusing on mild cognitive impairment (MCI)-related issues was completed by a subset of 758 retired professional football players (50 yr and older). Two hundred sixty-nine (11.1%) of all respondents reported having prior or current diagnosis of clinical depression. There was an association between recurrent concussion and diagnosis of lifetime depression (chi2=71.21, df=2, Pdiabetes. Our findings suggest a possible link between recurrent sport-related concussion and increased risk of clinical depression. The findings emphasize the importance of understanding potential neurological consequences of recurrent concussion.

  15. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  16. Single versus recurrent depression history: differentiating risk factors among current US smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, David R; Cameron, Amy; Feuer, Shelley; Cohn, Amy; Abrantes, Ana M; Brown, Richard A

    2010-06-01

    The strong relationship between persistent tobacco use and Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) has motivated clinical trials of specialized treatments targeting smokers with a history of MDD. Meta-analyses suggest positive responses to specialized treatments have been observed consistently among smokers with history of recurrent rather than a single episode of MDD. Approximately 15% of current US smokers have a history of recurrent MDD. Little is known about the risk factors that contribute to persistent smoking and differentiate these at-risk smokers, US. The National Comorbidity Survey - Replication (NCS-R) included a survey of 1560 smokers participants aged 18 and older in the United States. Lifetime history of MDD was categorized according to chronicity: no history (No MDD), single episode (MDD-S) and recurrent depression (MDD-R). The relationship between the chronicity of MDD, smoking characteristics, cessation history, nicotine dependence, comorbidity with psychiatric disorders, and current functional impairments were examined. MDD-R smokers reported fewer lifetime cessation efforts, smoked more cigarettes, had higher levels of nicotine dependence, had higher rates of comorbid psychiatric disorders and greater functional impairment than smokers with No MDD. MDD-S smokers were not consistently distinguished from No MDD smokers on cessation attempts, level of daily smoking, nicotine dependence or functional impairment indices. The study highlights the importance of chronicity when characterizing depression-related risk of persistent smoking behavior. Although, clinical trials suggest MDD-R smokers specifically benefit from specialized behavioral treatments, these services are not widely available and more efforts are needed to engage MDD-R smokers in efficacious treatments. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  19. Risk of Severe Toxicity According to Site of Recurrence in Patients Treated With Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Recurrent Head and Neck Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ling, Diane C.; Vargo, John A.; Ferris, Robert L.; Ohr, James; Clump, David A.; Yau, Wai-Ying Wendy; Duvvuri, Umamaheswar; Kim, Seungwon; Johnson, Jonas T.; Bauman, Julie E.; Branstetter, Barton F.; Heron, Dwight E.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To report a 10-year update of our institutional experience with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for reirradiation of locally recurrent head and neck cancer, focusing on predictors of toxicity. Methods and Materials: A retrospective review was performed on 291 patients treated with SBRT for recurrent, previously irradiated head and neck cancer between April 2002 and March 2013. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of severe acute and late toxicity. Patients with <3 months of follow-up (n=43) or who died within 3 months of treatment (n=21) were excluded from late toxicity analysis. Results: Median time to death or last clinical follow-up was 9.8 months among the entire cohort and 53.1 months among surviving patients. Overall, 33 patients (11.3%) experienced grade ≥3 acute toxicity and 43 (18.9%) experienced grade ≥3 late toxicity. Compared with larynx/hypopharynx, treatment of nodal recurrence was associated with a lower risk of severe acute toxicity (P=.03), with no significant differences in severe acute toxicity among other sites. Patients treated for a recurrence in the larynx/hypopharynx experienced significantly more severe late toxicity compared with those with oropharyngeal, oral cavity, base of skull/paranasal sinus, salivary gland, or nodal site of recurrence (P<.05 for all). Sixteen patients (50%) with laryngeal/hypopharyngeal recurrence experienced severe late toxicity, compared with 6-20% for other sites. Conclusions: Salvage SBRT is a safe and effective option for most patients with previously irradiated head and neck cancer. However, patients treated to the larynx or hypopharynx experience significantly more late toxicity compared with others and should be carefully selected for treatment, with consideration given to patient performance status, pre-existing organ dysfunction, and goals of care. Treatment toxicity in these patients may be mitigated with more conformal plans to allow for increased

  20. Risk of Severe Toxicity According to Site of Recurrence in Patients Treated With Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Recurrent Head and Neck Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ling, Diane C.; Vargo, John A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pittsburgh Cancer Institute, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States); Ferris, Robert L. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pittsburgh Cancer Institute, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States); Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States); Ohr, James [Division of Medical Oncology, Department of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States); Clump, David A.; Yau, Wai-Ying Wendy [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pittsburgh Cancer Institute, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States); Duvvuri, Umamaheswar; Kim, Seungwon; Johnson, Jonas T. [Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States); Bauman, Julie E. [Division of Medical Oncology, Department of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States); Branstetter, Barton F. [Department of Radiology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States); Heron, Dwight E., E-mail: herond2@umpc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pittsburgh Cancer Institute, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States); Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2016-07-01

    Purpose: To report a 10-year update of our institutional experience with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for reirradiation of locally recurrent head and neck cancer, focusing on predictors of toxicity. Methods and Materials: A retrospective review was performed on 291 patients treated with SBRT for recurrent, previously irradiated head and neck cancer between April 2002 and March 2013. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of severe acute and late toxicity. Patients with <3 months of follow-up (n=43) or who died within 3 months of treatment (n=21) were excluded from late toxicity analysis. Results: Median time to death or last clinical follow-up was 9.8 months among the entire cohort and 53.1 months among surviving patients. Overall, 33 patients (11.3%) experienced grade ≥3 acute toxicity and 43 (18.9%) experienced grade ≥3 late toxicity. Compared with larynx/hypopharynx, treatment of nodal recurrence was associated with a lower risk of severe acute toxicity (P=.03), with no significant differences in severe acute toxicity among other sites. Patients treated for a recurrence in the larynx/hypopharynx experienced significantly more severe late toxicity compared with those with oropharyngeal, oral cavity, base of skull/paranasal sinus, salivary gland, or nodal site of recurrence (P<.05 for all). Sixteen patients (50%) with laryngeal/hypopharyngeal recurrence experienced severe late toxicity, compared with 6-20% for other sites. Conclusions: Salvage SBRT is a safe and effective option for most patients with previously irradiated head and neck cancer. However, patients treated to the larynx or hypopharynx experience significantly more late toxicity compared with others and should be carefully selected for treatment, with consideration given to patient performance status, pre-existing organ dysfunction, and goals of care. Treatment toxicity in these patients may be mitigated with more conformal plans to allow for increased

  1. Plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 4G/5G polymorphism, factor V Leiden, prothrombin mutations and the risk of VTE recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundquist, Kristina; Wang, Xiao; Svensson, Peter J; Sundquist, Jan; Hedelius, Anna; Larsson Lönn, Sara; Zöller, Bengt; Memon, Ashfaque A

    2015-11-25

    Plasminogen-activator inhibitor (PAI)-1 is an important inhibitor of the plasminogen/plasmin system. PAI-1 levels are influenced by the 4G/5G polymorphism in the PAI-1 promoter. We investigated the relationship between the PAI-1 polymorphism and VTE recurrence, and its possible modification by factor V Leiden (FVL) and prothrombin (PTM) mutations. Patients (n=1,069) from the Malmö Thrombophilia Study were followed from discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment until diagnosis of VTE recurrence or the end of the study (maximum follow-up 9.8 years). One hundred twenty-seven patients (11.9 %) had VTE recurrence. PAI-1 was genotyped by TaqMan PCR. Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, sex and acquired risk factors of VTE showed no evidence of an association between PAI-1 genotype and risk of VTE recurrence in the study population as a whole. However, by including an interaction term in the analysis we showed that FVL but not PTM modified the effect of PAI-1 genotype: patients with the 4G allele plus FVL had a higher risk of VTE recurrence [hazard ratio (HR) =2.3, 95 % confidence interval (CI) =1.5-3.3] compared to patients with the 4G allele but no FVL (reference group) or FVL irrespective of PAI-1 genotype (HR=1.8, 95 % CI=1.3-2.5). Compared to reference group, 5G allele irrespective of FVL was associated with lower risk of VTE recurrence only when compared with 4G allele together with FVL. In conclusion, FVL has a modifying effect on PAI-1 polymorphism in relation to risk of VTE recurrence. The role of PAI-1 polymorphism as a risk factor of recurrent VTE may be FVL dependent.

  2. A Comparison of Risk Factors for Wheeze and Recurrent Cough in Preschool Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermann, Christian; Westergaard, T.; Pedersen, B. V.

    2005-01-01

    the same etiology. Data were obtained 1) by a mailed parental questionnaire (International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood questions and supplementary questions on cough, sociodemography, perinatal factors, and environmental exposure); 2) through general practitioners (familial allergic disease......In a study of 2,978 Danish children aged 5 years from two suburban counties of Copenhagen, carried out in 1998, the authors compared risk factor profiles for wheeze and recurrent cough without wheeze by using polytomous logistic regression to clarify whether the two conditions are likely to have...

  3. Fatores de risco para a recidiva da tuberculose Risk factors for recurrence of tuberculosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Dornelles Picon

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Identificar fatores de risco para a recidiva da tuberculose. MÉTODOS: Estudou-se uma coorte de 610 pacientes com tuberculose pulmonar bacilífera inscritos para tratamento entre 1989 e 1994 e curados com o esquema contendo rifampicina, isoniazida e pirazinamida (RHZ. Avaliaram-se os seguintes fatores de risco: idade, sexo, cor, duração dos sintomas, cavitação das lesões, extensão da doença, diabetes melito, alcoolismo, infecção pelo HIV, negativação tardia do escarro, adesão ao tratamento e doses dos fármacos. Para detecção das recidivas, os pacientes foram seguidos por 7,7 ± 2,0 anos, após a cura, pelo sistema de informação da Secretaria Estadual da Saúde do Rio Grande do Sul. Nas análises utilizaram-se os testes t de Student, qui-quadrado ou exato de Fisher e a regressão de Cox. RESULTADOS: Ocorreram 26 recidivas (4,3%, correspondendo a 0,55/100 pessoas-ano. A taxa de recidiva foi de 5,95 e 0,48/100 pessoas-ano, respectivamente, nos pacientes HIV-positivos e nos HIV-negativos (p OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for recurrence of tuberculosis. METHODS: We studied a cohort of 610 patients with active pulmonary tuberculosis who were enrolled for treatment between 1989 and 1994 and cured using a three-drug treatment regimen of rifampin, isoniazid and pyrazinamide (RHZ. The risk factors studied were age, gender, race, duration of symptoms, lesion cavitation, extent of disease, diabetes mellitus, alcoholism, HIV infection, delayed negative sputum conversion, treatment compliance, and medication doses. In order to detect recurrence, the patients were monitored through the Rio Grande do Sul State Healt Department Information System for 7.7 ± 2.0 years after cure. Data were analyzed using the Student's t-test, the chi-square test or Fisher's exact test, and Cox regression models. RESULTS: There were 26 cases of recurrence (4.3%, which corresponds to 0.55/100 patients-year. The recurrence rate was 5.95 and 0

  4. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  5. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  7. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  8. A population-based validation study of the DCIS Score predicting recurrence risk in individuals treated by breast-conserving surgery alone

    OpenAIRE

    Rakovitch, Eileen; Nofech-Mozes, Sharon; Hanna, Wedad; Baehner, Frederick L.; Saskin, Refik; Butler, Steven M.; Tuck, Alan; Sengupta, Sandip; Elavathil, Leela; Jani, Prashant A.; Bonin, Michel; Chang, Martin C.; Robertson, Susan J.; Slodkowska, Elzbieta; Fong, Cindy

    2015-01-01

    Validated biomarkers are needed to improve risk assessment and treatment decision-making for women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast. The Oncotype DX? DCIS Score (DS) was shown to predict the risk of local recurrence (LR) in individuals with low-risk DCIS treated by breast-conserving surgery (BCS) alone. Our objective was to confirm these results in a larger population-based cohort of individuals. We used an established population-based cohort of individuals diagnosed with DC...

  9. Regulatory cells, cytokine pattern and clinical risk factors for asthma in infants and young children with recurrent wheeze.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrego, L M; Arroz, M J; Videira, P; Martins, C; Guimarães, H; Nunes, G; Papoila, A L; Trindade, H

    2009-08-01

    Several risk factors for asthma have been identified in infants and young children with recurrent wheeze. However, published literature has reported contradictory findings regarding the underlying immunological mechanisms. This study was designed to assess and compare the immunological status during the first 2 years in steroid-naive young children with >or= three episodes of physician-confirmed wheeze (n=50), with and without clinical risk factors for developing subsequent asthma (i.e. parental asthma or a personal history of eczema and/or two of the following: wheezing without colds, a personal history of allergic rhinitis and peripheral blood eosinophilia >4%), with age-matched healthy controls (n=30). Peripheral blood CD4(+)CD25(+) and CD4(+)CD25(high) T cells and their cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen-4 (CTLA-4), GITR and Foxp3 expression were analysed by flow cytometry. Cytokine (IFN-gamma, TGF-beta and IL-10), CTLA-4 and Foxp3 mRNA expression were evaluated (real-time PCR) after peripheral blood mononuclear cell stimulation with phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) (24 h) and house dust mite (HDM) extracts (7th day). Flow cytometry results showed a significant reduction in the absolute number of CD4(+)CD25(high) and the absolute and percentage numbers of CD4(+)CD25(+)CTLA-4(+) in wheezy children compared with healthy controls. Wheezy children at a high risk of developing asthma had a significantly lower absolute number of CD4(+)CD25(+) (P=0.01) and CD4(+)CD25(high) (P=0.04), compared with those at a low risk. After PMA stimulation, CTLA-4 (P=0.03) and Foxp3 (P=0.02) expression was diminished in wheezy children compared with the healthy children. After HDM stimulation, CTLA-4 (P=0.03) and IFN-gamma (P=0.04) expression was diminished in wheezy children compared with healthy children. High-risk children had lower expression of IFN-gamma (P=0.03) compared with low-risk and healthy children and lower expression of CTLA-4 (P=0.01) compared with healthy

  10. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  11. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  12. Outcomes after inferior vena cava filter placement in cancer patients diagnosed with pulmonary embolism: risk for recurrent venous thromboembolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coombs, Catherine; Kuk, Deborah; Devlin, Sean; Siegelbaum, Robert H; Durack, Jeremy C; Parameswaran, Rekha; Mantha, Simon; Deng, Kathy; Soff, Gerald

    2017-11-01

    Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common complication in cancer patients and anticoagulation (AC) remains the standard of care for treatment. Inferior vena cava (IVC) filters may also used to reduce the risk of pulmonary embolism, either alone or in addition to AC. Although widely used, data are limited on the safety and efficacy of IVC filters in cancer patients. We performed a retrospective review of outcomes after IVC filter insertion in a database of 1270 consecutive patients with cancer-associated pulmonary embolism (PE) at our institution between 2008 and 2009. Outcomes measured included rate of all recurrent VTE, recurrent PE, and overall survival within 12 months. 317 (25%) of the 1270 patients with PE had IVC filters placed within 30 days of the index PE event or prior to the index PE in the setting of prior DVT. Patients with IVC filters had markedly lower overall survival (7.3 months) than the non-IVC filter patients (13.2 months). Filter patients also had a lower rate of AC use at time of initial PE. There was a trend towards higher recurrent VTE in patients with IVC filters (11.9%) compared to non-filter patients (7.7%), but this was not significant (p = 0.086). The risk of recurrent PE was similar between the IVC filter cohort (3.5%) and non-filter group (3.5%, p = 0.99). Cancer patients receiving IVC filters had a similar risk of recurrent PE, but a trend towards more overall recurrent VTE. The filter patients had poorer overall survival, which may reflect a poorer cancer prognosis, and had greater contraindication to AC; therefore these patients likely had a higher inherent risk for recurrent VTE. A prospective study would be helpful for further clarification on the partial reduction in the recurrent PE risk by IVC filter placement in cancer patients.

  13. Early risk of recurrent stroke in patients with symptomatic carotid near-occlusion: Results from CAOS, a multicenter registry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Pastor, Andrés; Gil-Núñez, Antonio; Ramírez-Moreno, José María; González-Nafría, Noelia; Tejada, Javier; Moniche, Francisco; Portilla-Cuenca, Juan Carlos; Martínez-Sánchez, Patricia; Fuentes, Blanca; Gamero-García, Miguel Ángel; Alonso de Leciñana, María; Cánovas-Verge, David; Aladro, Yolanda; Parkhutik, Vera; Lago-Martín, Aida; de Arce-Borda, Ana María; Usero-Ruíz, María; Delgado-Mederos, Raquel; Pampliega, Ana; Ximenez-Carrillo, Álvaro; Bártulos-Iglesias, Mónica; Castro-Reyes, Enrique

    2017-10-01

    Background The risk of recurrent stroke among patients with symptomatic carotid near-occlusion is not well established, and management of the condition remains controversial. Symptomatic carotid near-occlusion with full collapse has been identified as a strong predictor of early recurrence. We aimed to analyze the 90-day risk of recurrent ipsilateral ischemic stroke in medically treated patients with symptomatic carotid near-occlusion. Methods We performed a multicenter, nationwide, prospective study from January 2010 to May 2016. Patients with angiography-confirmed symptomatic carotid near-occlusion were included. The primary endpoint was ipsilateral ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) within 90 days after the presenting event. For this analysis, patients who underwent revascularization within 90 days after stroke were excluded. Results The study population comprised 141 patients from 17 Spanish centers; 83 patients were treated medically. Primary endpoint occurred in eight patients, resulting in a cumulative rate of 10.6% (95% CI, 3.7-17.5). Previous history of stroke or transient ischemic attack was identified as an independent predictor for recurrence in the multivariate Cox regression analysis (HR, 4.37 [95% CI, 1.05-18.18]; p = 0.043), while the presence of full collapse was not associated with an increased risk (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.17-3.92]; p = 0.793). The risk of recurrence was also not affected by the presence of significant stenosis or occlusion of the contralateral carotid artery, or by the collateral circulation. Conclusions Patients with symptomatic carotid near-occlusion seem to have an increased risk of early ipsilateral recurrent stroke. Our results contrast with the low risk of symptomatic carotid near-occlusion reported to date. Full collapse did not increase the risk of recurrent stroke in our study.

  14. Risk factors and features of recurrent bacterial complications of upper respiratory tract viral infections in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karpenko A.V.

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to determine risk factors for recurrent bacterial complications of the upper respiratory tract viral infection (URTI in children, as well as the clinical and immunological features of the course of such complications. We enrolled 214 children aged 3-18 years with URTIs complicated with acute otitis media or acute bacterial rhinosinusitis. Frequency of bacterial complications of URI in 128 children was low (group I and in 86 children it met the criteria of recurrent course (group II. In addition to the standard examination, lysozyme levels in the oropharyngeal secretion were determined three times during the disease. It was found that children of group II were characterized by an early debut of respiratory morbidity (at the age of 6.00 (4.00, 12.00 months against 13.00 (4.50, 16.00 months in children of group I (p<0,0001, as well as a longer duration of catarrhal and intoxication syndromes in similar forms of the disease. The most significant risk factors for the formation of the recurring complication pattern were maternal smoking (OR=2.73, 95% CI [1.34, 5.48], along with gastroenterological pathology and frequent URTI in the mother and a shortened period of breastfeeding. In children with recurrent bacterial complications of URTI, there was an impaired local resistance of the upper respiratory tract mucous membranes (as a decrease in the concentrations of lysozyme in all periods of the disease, which persisted after recovery.

  15. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  16. Genetic polymorphisms in calcitonin receptor gene and risk for recurrent kidney calcium stone disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakhssalim, Nasser; Basiri, Abbas; Houshmand, Massoud; Pakmanesh, Hamid; Golestan, Banafsheh; Azadvari, Mohaddeseh; Aryan, Hajar; Kashi, Amir H

    2014-01-01

    In this study the full sequence of the calcitonin receptor gene (CALCR) in a group of Iranian males suffering from recurrent calcium urinary stones was compared with that of a control group. Serum and urinary biochemistry related to urolithiasis were evaluated in 105 males diagnosed with recurrent kidney calcium stones and 101 age-matched healthy control males. The polymerase chain reaction single-strand conformation polymorphism method was used to detect new polymorphisms in the CALCR. Nine polymorphisms were detected; seven were in the non-coding and two in the coding region. The T allele associated with the 3'UTR+18C>T polymorphism was observed exclusively in the stone formers. The exact odds ratio for the T allele in this locus for those at risk of stone formation was 36.72 (95% CI 4.95-272.0) (p C and IVS1insA polymorphisms in intron 1 were associated with kidney stone disease (p T and intron 1 polymorphisms in the CALCR and the risk of kidney stone disease. 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  17. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  18. Initial Steps to inform selection of continuation cognitive therapy or fluoxetine for higher risk responders to cognitive therapy for recurrent major depressive disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vittengl, Jeffrey R; Anna Clark, Lee; Thase, Michael E; Jarrett, Robin B

    2017-07-01

    Responders to acute-phase cognitive therapy (A-CT) for major depressive disorder (MDD) often relapse or recur, but continuation-phase cognitive therapy (C-CT) or fluoxetine reduces risks for some patients. We tested composite moderators of C-CT versus fluoxetine's preventive effects to inform continuation treatment selection. Responders to A-CT for MDD judged to be at higher risk for relapse due to unstable or partial remission (N=172) were randomized to 8 months of C-CT or fluoxetine with clinical management and assessed, free from protocol treatment, for 24 additional months. Pre-continuation-treatment characteristics that in survival analyses moderated treatments' effects on relapse over 8 months of continuation-phase treatment (residual symptoms and negative temperament) and on relapse/recurrence over the full observation period's 32 months (residual symptoms and age) were combined to estimate the potential advantage of C-CT versus fluoxetine for individual patients. Assigning patients to optimal continuation treatment (i.e., to C-CT or fluoxetine, depending on patients' pre-continuation-treatment characteristics) resulted in absolute reduction of relapse or recurrence risk by 16-21% compared to the other non-optimal treatment. Although these novel results require replication before clinical application, selecting optimal continuation treatment (i.e., personalizing treatment) for higher risk A-CT responders may decrease risks of MDD relapse and recurrence substantively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Maternal smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of recurrent wheezing during the first years of life (BAMSE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wickman Magnus

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Exposure to cigarette smoking during foetal and early postnatal life may have implications for lung health. The aim of this study was to assess the possible effects of such exposure in utero on lower respiratory disease in children up to two years of age. Methods A birth cohort of 4089 newborn infants was followed for two years using parental questionnaires. When the infant was two months old the parents completed a questionnaire on various lifestyle factors, including maternal smoking during pregnancy and after birth. At one and two years of age information was obtained by questionnaire on symptoms of allergic and respiratory diseases as well as on environmental exposures, particularly exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS. Adjustments were made for potential confounders. Results When the mother had smoked during pregnancy but not after that, there was an increased risk of recurrent wheezing up to two years' age, ORadj = 2.2, (95% CI 1.3 – 3.6. The corresponding OR was 1.6, (95% CI 1.2 – 2.3 for reported exposure to ETS with or without maternal smoking in utero. Maternal smoking during pregnancy but no exposure to ETS also increased the risk of doctor's diagnosed asthma up to two years of age, ORadj = 2.1, (95% CI 1.2 – 3.7. Conclusion Exposure to maternal cigarette smoking in utero is a risk factor for recurrent wheezing, as well as doctor's diagnosed asthma in children up to two yearsof age.

  20. Recurrent epistaxis: predicting risk of 30-day readmission, derivation and validation of RHINO-ooze score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addison, A; Paul, C; Kuo, R; Lamyman, A; Martinez-Devesa, P; Hettige, R

    2017-06-01

    To derive and validate a predictive scoring tool (RHINO-ooze score) with good sensitivity and specificity in identifying patients with epistaxis at high risk of 30 day readmission and to enable risk stratification for possible definitive intervention. Using medical databases, we searched for factors influencing recurrent epistaxis. The information ascertained together with our analysis of retrospective data on patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2013 and September 2014, was used as the derivation cohort to develop the predictive scoring model (RHINO-ooze score). The tool was validated by performing statistical analysis on the validation cohort of patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2014 and October 2015. Multiple linear regressions with backwards elimination was used to derive the predictive model. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity were calculated. 834 admissions were encountered within the study period. Using the derivative cohort (n= 302) the RHINO-ooze score with a maximum score of 8 from five variables (Recent admission, Haemorrhage point unidentified, Increasing age over 70, posterior Nasal packing, Oral anticoagulant) was developed. The RHINO-ooze score had a chi-square value of 99.72 with a significance level of smaller than 0.0001 and hence an overall good model fit. Comparison between the derivative and validation groups revealed similar rates of 30-day readmission between the cohorts. The sensitivity and specificity of predicting 30-day readmission in high risk patients with recurrent epistaxis (RHINO-ooze score equal/larger than 6) was 81% and 84%, respectively. The RHINO-ooze scoring tool demonstrates good specificity and sensitivity in predicting the risk of 30 day readmission in patients with epistaxis and can be used as an adjunct to clinical decision making with regards to timing of operative intervention in order to reduce readmission rates.

  1. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  2. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  3. Joint Estimation of Cardiac Toxicity and Recurrence Risks After Comprehensive Nodal Photon Versus Proton Therapy for Breast Cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stick, Line B; Yu, Jen; Maraldo, Maja V

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: The study aims to perform joint estimation of the risk of recurrence caused by inadequate radiation dose coverage of lymph node targets and the risk of cardiac toxicity caused by radiation exposure to the heart. Delivered photon plans are compared with realistic proton plans, thereby pro...

  4. Impact of graft loss among kidney diseases with a high risk of post-transplant recurrence in the paediatric population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Stralen, Karlijn J; Verrina, Enrico; Belingheri, Mirco

    2013-01-01

    Some kidney diseases tend to recur in the renal allograft after transplantation. We studied the risk of graft loss among primary renal diseases known for their high risk of recurrence and compared it with that of patients with hypoplasia and/or dysplasia....

  5. Heavy Smoking Is Associated With Lower Age at First Episode of Acute Pancreatitis and a Higher Risk of Recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munigala, Satish; Conwell, Darwin L; Gelrud, Andres; Agarwal, Banke

    2015-08-01

    There is limited data on cigarette smoking and the risk of acute pancreatitis (AP). We evaluated the influence of cigarette smoking on AP risk and clinical presentation in a large cohort of Veteran's Administration (VA) patients. Retrospective study of VA patients from 1998 to 2007. Exclusion criteria included (1) history of chronic pancreatitis (n = 3222) or gallstones (n = 14,574) and (2) age younger than 15 years (n = 270). A 2-year washout period was used to exclude patients with pre-existing recurrent AP. The study included 484,624 patients. From 2001 to 2007, a total of 6799 (1.4%) patients had AP. Alcohol (risk ratio, 4.20) and smoking (risk ratio, 1.78) were independent significant risk factors of AP on multiple regression analysis. Smoking increased the risk of AP in both nonalcoholics (0.57% vs 1.1%) and alcoholics (2.6% vs 4.1%). Smoking was associated with younger mean age at first episode of AP and higher likelihood of recurrent AP (≥4 episodes) in both nonalcoholics and alcoholics. The interval between recurrent episodes was not altered by alcohol or smoking. In a large cohort of VA patients, smoking is an independent risk factor for AP and augmented the effect of alcohol on the risk, age of onset, and recurrence of AP.

  6. Hyperhomocysteinemia in Recurrent Miscarriage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaber, Kh.R.; Farag, M.K.; Soliman, S.Et.; Abd Al-Kaderm, M.A.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: An elevated total plasma homocysteine level has been suggested as a possible risk factor in women suffering from recurrent pregnancy loss. The current study was undertaken to assess the association between homocysteine, folate, cobalamin (vitamin B12) and the risk of recurrent pregnancy loss. Design: Case . control study Materials and Methods: The study included 57 non-pregnant Egyptian women. They were classified according to their obstetric history into 2 groups: 32 cases with at least two consecutive miscarriages (Study group), and 25 cases with normal obstetric history (Control group). All cases were tested for plasma total homocysteine, serum folate and cobalamin (vitamin B12). Results: The fasting total homocysteine was significantly higher in the study group as compared to the control group. While the median concentrations for the vitamins studied were significantly lower in women of the study group as compared to the controls. Elevated homocysteine and reduced vitamin B12 can be considered risk factors for recurrent miscarriage with odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of 1.839 (1.286, 2.63) and 1.993 (1.346, 2.951) respectively in the group of recurrent miscarriages. The OR (95% CI) in the study population for low serum folate concentrations was 1.23 (0.776, 2.256). Conclusion: Elevated homocysteine and reduced serum vitamin B12 are risk factors for recurrent miscarriage. Low serum folate did not seem a risk factor for recurrent miscarriage. Testing for homocysteine levels in women suffering from unexplained recurrent miscarriage and pre-conceptional supplementation with vitamin B12 might be beneficial to improve pregnancy outcome

  7. Hyperhomocysteinemia in Recurrent Miscarriage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaber, Kh R; Farag, M K [Prenatal Diagnosis and Fetal Medicine Department, National Research Centre, Dokki, Giza (Egypt); Soliman, S Et [Radioisotope Department, Nuclear Research Centre, Atomic Energy Authority, Cairo (Egypt); Abd Al-Kaderm, M A [Obstetrics and Gynecology Department, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Cairo (Egypt)

    2008-07-01

    Objective: An elevated total plasma homocysteine level has been suggested as a possible risk factor in women suffering from recurrent pregnancy loss. The current study was undertaken to assess the association between homocysteine, folate, cobalamin (vitamin B12) and the risk of recurrent pregnancy loss. Design: Case . control study Materials and Methods: The study included 57 non-pregnant Egyptian women. They were classified according to their obstetric history into 2 groups: 32 cases with at least two consecutive miscarriages (Study group), and 25 cases with normal obstetric history (Control group). All cases were tested for plasma total homocysteine, serum folate and cobalamin (vitamin B12). Results: The fasting total homocysteine was significantly higher in the study group as compared to the control group. While the median concentrations for the vitamins studied were significantly lower in women of the study group as compared to the controls. Elevated homocysteine and reduced vitamin B12 can be considered risk factors for recurrent miscarriage with odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of 1.839 (1.286, 2.63) and 1.993 (1.346, 2.951) respectively in the group of recurrent miscarriages. The OR (95% CI) in the study population for low serum folate concentrations was 1.23 (0.776, 2.256). Conclusion: Elevated homocysteine and reduced serum vitamin B12 are risk factors for recurrent miscarriage. Low serum folate did not seem a risk factor for recurrent miscarriage. Testing for homocysteine levels in women suffering from unexplained recurrent miscarriage and pre-conceptional supplementation with vitamin B12 might be beneficial to improve pregnancy outcome.

  8. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  9. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  10. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  11. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  12. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  13. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  15. COX-2 and PPARγ expression are potential markers of recurrence risk in mammary duct carcinoma in-situ

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulkarni, Swati; Patil, Deepa B; Diaz, Leslie K; Wiley, Elizabeth L; Morrow, Monica; Khan, Seema A

    2008-01-01

    In women with duct carcinoma in-situ (DCIS) receiving breast conservation therapy (BCT), in-breast recurrences are seen in approximately 10%, but cannot be accurately predicted using clinical and histological criteria. We performed a case-control study to identify protein markers of local recurrence risk in DCIS. Women treated for DCIS with BCT, who later developed in-breast recurrence (cases) were matched by age and year of treatment to women who remained free of recurrence (controls). A total of 69 women were included in the study, 31 cases and 38 controls. Immunohistochemical evaluation of DCIS tissue arrays was performed for estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, HER-2/neu, cyclin D1, p53, p21, cycloxygenase-2 (COX-2) and peroxisome proliferator activated receptor γ (PPARγ). Two markers were significantly different between cases and controls on univariate analysis: strong COX-2 expression was associated with increased risk of recurrence, with 67% vs. 24% positivity in cases and controls p = 0.006; and nuclear expression of PPARγ was associated with protection from recurrence with 4% vs. 27% positivity in cases and controls, p = 0.024. In a multivariate model which included size, grade, COX-2 and PPARγ positivity, we found COX-2 positivity to be a strong independent risk factor for recurrence (OR 7.90, 95% CI 1.72–36.23)., whereas size and grade were of borderline significance. PPARγ expression continued to demonstrate a protective trend, (OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.06–1.84). Our findings suggest that COX-2 and PPARγ should be investigated further as biologic markers to predict DCIS recurrence, particularly since they are also potential therapeutic targets

  16. COX-2 and PPARγ expression are potential markers of recurrence risk in mammary duct carcinoma in-situ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wiley Elizabeth L

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In women with duct carcinoma in-situ (DCIS receiving breast conservation therapy (BCT, in-breast recurrences are seen in approximately 10%, but cannot be accurately predicted using clinical and histological criteria. We performed a case-control study to identify protein markers of local recurrence risk in DCIS. Methods Women treated for DCIS with BCT, who later developed in-breast recurrence (cases were matched by age and year of treatment to women who remained free of recurrence (controls. Results A total of 69 women were included in the study, 31 cases and 38 controls. Immunohistochemical evaluation of DCIS tissue arrays was performed for estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, HER-2/neu, cyclin D1, p53, p21, cycloxygenase-2 (COX-2 and peroxisome proliferator activated receptor γ (PPARγ. Two markers were significantly different between cases and controls on univariate analysis: strong COX-2 expression was associated with increased risk of recurrence, with 67% vs. 24% positivity in cases and controls p = 0.006; and nuclear expression of PPARγ was associated with protection from recurrence with 4% vs. 27% positivity in cases and controls, p = 0.024. In a multivariate model which included size, grade, COX-2 and PPARγ positivity, we found COX-2 positivity to be a strong independent risk factor for recurrence (OR 7.90, 95% CI 1.72–36.23., whereas size and grade were of borderline significance. PPARγ expression continued to demonstrate a protective trend, (OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.06–1.84. Conclusion Our findings suggest that COX-2 and PPARγ should be investigated further as biologic markers to predict DCIS recurrence, particularly since they are also potential therapeutic targets.

  17. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  18. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  19. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  20. Medication Exposure and Risk of Recurrent Clostridium difficile Infection in Community-Dwelling Older People and Nursing Home Residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haran, John P; Bradley, Evan; Howe, Emily; Wu, Xun; Tjia, Jennifer

    2018-02-01

    It is unclear how medication exposures differ in their association with recurrent Clostridium difficile infection (rCDI) in elderly nursing home (NH) residents and community-dwelling individuals. This study examined these exposures to determine whether the risk of rCDI differs according to living environment. Retrospective. Academic and community healthcare settings. Individuals aged 65 and older with CDI (N = 616). Information on participant characteristics and medications was extracted from the electronic medical record (EMR). We used separate extended Cox models according to living environment to identify the association between medication use and risk of rCDI. Of the 616 elderly adults treated for CDI, 24.1% of those living in the community and 28.1% of NH residents experienced recurrence within 1 year. For community-dwelling participants, the risk of rCDI was 1.6 times as high with antibiotic exposure and 2.5 times as high with acid-reducing medication exposure, but corticosteroid exposure was associated with a 39% lower risk of recurrence. For NH residents, the risk of rCDI was 2.9 times as high with acid-reducing medication exposure and 5.9 times as high with corticosteroid medication exposure. Antibiotic exposure was associated with an increased risk of recurrence only in community-dwelling participants (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.63, 95% confidence interval = 1.00-2.67). Risk of rCDI is greater with acid-reducing medication use than antibiotic use after initial CDI treatment, although the risk varied depending on living environment. Corticosteroid use is associated with greater risk of recurrence in NH residents but lower risk in community-dwelling elderly adults. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  1. Risk of recurrence, prognosis, and follow-up for Danish women with cervical cancer in 2005-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taarnhøj, Gry Assam; Christensen, Ib Jarle; Lajer, Henrik

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In developed countries, women attend follow-up after treatment for cervical cancer to detect recurrence. The aim of this study was to describe the Danish population of women with early-stage cervical cancer at risk for recurrence and death due to recurrence. METHODS: Data were extracted...... from 3 nationwide databases to find women diagnosed with stage 1A1 to 1B1 cervical cancer in 2005-2013. Recurrences were determined from data on oncological or surgical treatment more than 3 months after the initial diagnosis and were cross-checked with patient journals. RESULTS: In all, 1523 patients...... were diagnosed with stage 1A1 to 1B1 cervical cancer. Eighty women experienced recurrences: 8 at International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage 1A1, 0 at FIGO stage 1A2, and 72 at FIGO stage 1B1. The 5-year recurrence rate was 6.4%; 67.5% of the women had symptomatic recurrences...

  2. Relation of temperature and humidity to the risk of recurrent gout attacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neogi, Tuhina; Chen, Clara; Niu, Jingbo; Chaisson, Christine; Hunter, David J; Choi, Hyon; Zhang, Yuqing

    2014-08-15

    Gout attack risk may be affected by weather (e.g., because of volume depletion). We therefore examined the association of temperature and humidity with the risk of recurrent gout attacks by conducting an internet-based case-crossover study in the United States (in 2003-2010) among subjects with a diagnosis of gout who had 1 or more attacks during 1 year of follow-up. We examined the association of temperature and humidity over the prior 48 hours with the risk of gout attacks using a time-stratified approach and conditional logistic regression. Among 632 subjects with gout, there was a significant dose-response relationship between mean temperature in the prior 48 hours and the risk of subsequent gout attack (P = 0.01 for linear trend). Higher temperatures were associated with approximately 40% higher risk of gout attack compared with moderate temperatures. There was a reverse J-shaped relationship between mean relative humidity and the risk of gout attacks (P = 0.03 for quadratic trend). The combination of high temperature and low humidity had the greatest association (odds ratio = 2.04, 95% confidence interval: 1.26, 3.30) compared with moderate temperature and relative humidity. Thus, high ambient temperature and possibly extremes of humidity were associated with an increased risk of gout attack, despite the likelihood that individuals are often in climate-controlled indoor environments. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. HumanMethylation450K Array–Identified Biomarkers Predict Tumour Recurrence/Progression at Initial Diagnosis of High-risk Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark O Kitchen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: High-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (HR-NMIBC is a clinically unpredictable disease. Despite clinical risk estimation tools, many patients are undertreated with intra-vesical therapies alone, whereas others may be over-treated with early radical surgery. Molecular biomarkers, particularly DNA methylation, have been reported as predictive of tumour/patient outcomes in numerous solid organ and haematologic malignancies; however, there are few reports in HR-NMIBC and none using genome-wide array assessment. We therefore sought to identify novel DNA methylation markers of HR-NMIBC clinical outcomes that might predict tumour behaviour at initial diagnosis and help guide patient management. Patients and methods: A total of 21 primary initial diagnosis HR-NMIBC tumours were analysed by Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip arrays and subsequently bisulphite Pyrosequencing. In all, 7 had not recurred at 1 year after resection and 14 had recurred and/or progressed despite intra-vesical BCG. A further independent cohort of 32 HR-NMIBC tumours (17 no recurrence and 15 recurrence and/or progression despite BCG were also assessed by bisulphite Pyrosequencing. Results: Array analyses identified 206 CpG loci that segregated non-recurrent HR-NMIBC tumours from clinically more aggressive recurrence/progression tumours. Hypermethylation of CpG cg11850659 and hypomethylation of CpG cg01149192 in combination predicted HR-NMIBC recurrence and/or progression within 1 year of diagnosis with 83% sensitivity, 79% specificity, and 83% positive and 79% negative predictive values. Conclusions: This is the first genome-wide DNA methylation analysis of a unique HR-NMIBC tumour cohort encompassing known 1-year clinical outcomes. Our analyses identified potential novel epigenetic markers that could help guide individual patient management in this clinically unpredictable disease.

  4. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  5. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  6. Detection of Local Cancer Recurrence After Stereotactic Ablative Radiation Therapy for Lung Cancer: Physician Performance Versus Radiomic Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mattonen, Sarah A.; Palma, David A.; Johnson, Carol; Louie, Alexander V.; Landis, Mark; Rodrigues, George; Chan, Ian; Etemad-Rezai, Roya; Yeung, Timothy P.C.; Senan, Suresh; Ward, Aaron D.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR) is a guideline-specified treatment option for early-stage lung cancer. However, significant posttreatment fibrosis can occur and obfuscate the detection of local recurrence. The goal of this study was to assess physician ability to detect timely local recurrence and to compare physician performance with a radiomics tool. Methods and Materials: Posttreatment computed tomography (CT) scans (n=182) from 45 patients treated with SABR (15 with local recurrence matched to 30 with no local recurrence) were used to measure physician and radiomic performance in assessing response. Scans were individually scored by 3 thoracic radiation oncologists and 3 thoracic radiologists, all of whom were blinded to clinical outcomes. Radiomic features were extracted from the same images. Performances of the physician assessors and the radiomics signature were compared. Results: When taking into account all CT scans during the whole follow-up period, median sensitivity for physician assessment of local recurrence was 83% (range, 67%-100%), and specificity was 75% (range, 67%-87%), with only moderate interobserver agreement (κ = 0.54) and a median time to detection of recurrence of 15.5 months. When determining the early prediction of recurrence within <6 months after SABR, physicians assessed the majority of images as benign injury/no recurrence, with a mean error of 35%, false positive rate (FPR) of 1%, and false negative rate (FNR) of 99%. At the same time point, a radiomic signature consisting of 5 image-appearance features demonstrated excellent discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85, classification error of 24%, FPR of 24%, and FNR of 23%. Conclusions: These results suggest that radiomics can detect early changes associated with local recurrence that are not typically considered by physicians. This decision support system could potentially allow for early salvage therapy of

  7. Detection of Local Cancer Recurrence After Stereotactic Ablative Radiation Therapy for Lung Cancer: Physician Performance Versus Radiomic Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mattonen, Sarah A. [Department of Medical Biophysics, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario (Canada); Baines Imaging Research Laboratory, London Regional Cancer Program, London, Ontario (Canada); Palma, David A., E-mail: david.palma@lhsc.on.ca [Department of Medical Biophysics, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario (Canada); Baines Imaging Research Laboratory, London Regional Cancer Program, London, Ontario (Canada); Department of Oncology, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario (Canada); Johnson, Carol [Baines Imaging Research Laboratory, London Regional Cancer Program, London, Ontario (Canada); Louie, Alexander V. [Department of Oncology, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario (Canada); Landis, Mark [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, London Health Sciences Centre, London, Ontario (Canada); Rodrigues, George [Department of Oncology, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario (Canada); Chan, Ian; Etemad-Rezai, Roya [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, London Health Sciences Centre, London, Ontario (Canada); Yeung, Timothy P.C. [Department of Medical Biophysics, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario (Canada); Baines Imaging Research Laboratory, London Regional Cancer Program, London, Ontario (Canada); Senan, Suresh [Department of Radiation Oncology, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Ward, Aaron D. [Department of Medical Biophysics, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario (Canada); Baines Imaging Research Laboratory, London Regional Cancer Program, London, Ontario (Canada); Department of Oncology, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario (Canada)

    2016-04-01

    Purpose: Stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR) is a guideline-specified treatment option for early-stage lung cancer. However, significant posttreatment fibrosis can occur and obfuscate the detection of local recurrence. The goal of this study was to assess physician ability to detect timely local recurrence and to compare physician performance with a radiomics tool. Methods and Materials: Posttreatment computed tomography (CT) scans (n=182) from 45 patients treated with SABR (15 with local recurrence matched to 30 with no local recurrence) were used to measure physician and radiomic performance in assessing response. Scans were individually scored by 3 thoracic radiation oncologists and 3 thoracic radiologists, all of whom were blinded to clinical outcomes. Radiomic features were extracted from the same images. Performances of the physician assessors and the radiomics signature were compared. Results: When taking into account all CT scans during the whole follow-up period, median sensitivity for physician assessment of local recurrence was 83% (range, 67%-100%), and specificity was 75% (range, 67%-87%), with only moderate interobserver agreement (κ = 0.54) and a median time to detection of recurrence of 15.5 months. When determining the early prediction of recurrence within <6 months after SABR, physicians assessed the majority of images as benign injury/no recurrence, with a mean error of 35%, false positive rate (FPR) of 1%, and false negative rate (FNR) of 99%. At the same time point, a radiomic signature consisting of 5 image-appearance features demonstrated excellent discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85, classification error of 24%, FPR of 24%, and FNR of 23%. Conclusions: These results suggest that radiomics can detect early changes associated with local recurrence that are not typically considered by physicians. This decision support system could potentially allow for early salvage therapy of

  8. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  9. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  10. On the use of sibling recurrence risks to select environmental factors liable to interact with genetic risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazma, Rémi; Bonaïti-Pellié, Catherine; Norris, Jill M; Génin, Emmanuelle

    2010-01-01

    Gene-environment interactions are likely to be involved in the susceptibility to multifactorial diseases but are difficult to detect. Available methods usually concentrate on some particular genetic and environmental factors. In this paper, we propose a new method to determine whether a given exposure is susceptible to interact with unknown genetic factors. Rather than focusing on a specific genetic factor, the degree of familial aggregation is used as a surrogate for genetic factors. A test comparing the recurrence risks in sibs according to the exposure of indexes is proposed and its power is studied for varying values of model parameters. The Exposed versus Unexposed Recurrence Analysis (EURECA) is valuable for common diseases with moderate familial aggregation, only when the role of exposure has been clearly outlined. Interestingly, accounting for a sibling correlation for the exposure increases the power of EURECA. An application on a sample ascertained through one index affected with type 2 diabetes is presented where gene-environment interactions involving obesity and physical inactivity are investigated. Association of obesity with type 2 diabetes is clearly evidenced and a potential interaction involving this factor is suggested in Hispanics (P=0.045), whereas a clear gene-environment interaction is evidenced involving physical inactivity only in non-Hispanic whites (P=0.028). The proposed method might be of particular interest before genetic studies to help determine the environmental risk factors that will need to be accounted for to increase the power to detect genetic risk factors and to select the most appropriate samples to genotype.

  11. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  12. Fast neutron radiotherapy for soft tissue and cartilaginous sarcomas at high risk for local recurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, David L.; Einck, John; Bellon, Jennifer; Laramore, George E.

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: The practice policy at the University of Washington has been to employ fast neutron radiotherapy for soft tissue sarcoma lesions with prognostic features predictive for poor local control. These include gross residual disease/inoperable disease, recurrent disease, and contaminated surgical margins. Cartilaginous sarcomas have also been included in this high-risk group. This report updates and expands our previously described experience with this approach. Methods and Materials: Eighty-nine soft tissue sarcoma lesions in 72 patients were treated with neutron radiotherapy in our department between 1984 and 1996. Six patients, each with solitary lesions, were excluded from analysis due to lack of follow-up. Seventy-three percent were treated with fast neutron radiation alone, the rest with a combination of neutrons and photons. Median neutron dose was 18.3 nGy (range 4.8-22). Forty-two patients with solitary lesions were treated with curative intent. Thirty-one patients (including 7 previously treated with neutrons) with 41 lesions were treated with the goal of local palliation. Tumors were predominantly located in the extremity and torso. Thirty of 35 (85%) of curative group patients treated postoperatively had close or positive surgical margins. Thirty-four (82%) lesions treated for palliation were unresectable. Thirty-five patients (53%) were treated at the time of recurrence. Median tumor size at initial presentation was 8.0 cm (range 0.6-29), median treated gross disease size was 5.0 cm (range 1-22), and 46/69 evaluable lesions (67%) were judged to be of intermediate to high histologic grade. Fourteen patients (21%) had chondrosarcomas. Results: Median follow-up was 6 months (range 2-47) and 38 months (range 2-175) for the palliative and curative groups, respectively. Kaplan-Meier estimates were obtained for probability of local relapse-free survival (68%), distant disease-free survival (59%), cause-specific survival (68%), and overall survival (66%) at

  13. Metronomic chemotherapy – promising therapeutical approach for recurrent/ refractory high risk tumours in children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deak, L.; Feketeova, J.; Haluskova, V.; Sencakova, I.; Jenco, I.; Oravkinova, I.

    2011-01-01

    Despite a great progress in the treatment of pediatric malignancies, the outcome of children with high risk refractory or relapsed tumours, as are some types of brain tumours or metastatic sarcomas, remain poor. In contrast to dose – intensified chemotherapy, utilizing „maximal tolerated doses“ of chemotherapy, the metronomic chemotherapy (MC) is based on chronic administration of significantly lower doses of chemotherapy in an uninterrupted manner, for prolonged periods. Because of different mechanism of action against conventional chemotherapy and no cross- resistance, this treatment modality is effective also in refractory and recurrent tumours. The predominant mechanism of action of MC is antiangiogenic. In last decades several studies confirmed the efficacy and low toxicity of this new treatment modality. It can be delivered on outpatient basis and is well tolerated even in heavily pretreated patients. The authors present an overview of studies on MC in pediatric oncology and their own experience. (author)

  14. Heterogeneity wavelet kinetics from DCE-MRI for classifying gene expression based breast cancer recurrence risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahrooghy, Majid; Ashraf, Ahmed B; Daye, Dania; Mies, Carolyn; Feldman, Michael; Rosen, Mark; Kontos, Despina

    2013-01-01

    Breast tumors are heterogeneous lesions. Intra-tumor heterogeneity presents a major challenge for cancer diagnosis and treatment. Few studies have worked on capturing tumor heterogeneity from imaging. Most studies to date consider aggregate measures for tumor characterization. In this work we capture tumor heterogeneity by partitioning tumor pixels into subregions and extracting heterogeneity wavelet kinetic (HetWave) features from breast dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) to obtain the spatiotemporal patterns of the wavelet coefficients and contrast agent uptake from each partition. Using a genetic algorithm for feature selection, and a logistic regression classifier with leave one-out cross validation, we tested our proposed HetWave features for the task of classifying breast cancer recurrence risk. The classifier based on our features gave an ROC AUC of 0.78, outperforming previously proposed kinetic, texture, and spatial enhancement variance features which give AUCs of 0.69, 0.64, and 0.65, respectively.

  15. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  16. Common Atrial Fibrillation Risk Alleles at 4q25 Predict Recurrence after Catheter-based Atrial Fibrillation Ablation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoemaker, M. Benjamin; Muhammad, Raafia; Parvez, Babar; White, Brenda W.; Streur, Megan; Song, Yanna; Stubblefield, Tanya; Kucera, Gayle; Blair, Marcia; Rytlewski, Jason; Parvathaneni, Sunthosh; Nagarakanti, Rangadham; Saavedra, Pablo; Ellis, Christopher; Whalen, S. Patrick; Roden, Dan M; Darbar, Dawood

    2012-01-01

    Background Common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at chromosome 4q25 (rs2200733, rs10033464) are associated with both lone and typical AF. Risk alleles at 4q25 have recently been shown to predict recurrence of AF after ablation in a population of predominately lone AF, but lone AF represents only 5–30% of AF cases. Objective To test the hypothesis that 4q25 AF risk alleles can predict response to AF ablation in the majority of AF cases. Methods Patients enrolled in the Vanderbilt AF Registry underwent 378 catheter-based AF ablations (median age 60 years, 71% male, 89% typical AF) between 2004 and 2011. The primary endpoint was time to recurrence of any non-sinus atrial tachyarrhythmia (atrial tachycardia, atrial flutter, or AF; [AT/AF]). Results Two-hundred AT/AF recurrences (53%) were observed. In multivariable analysis, the rs2200733 risk allele predicted a 24% shorter recurrence-free time (survival time ratio 0.76 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.6–0.95, P=0.016) compared with wild-type. The heterozygous haplotype demonstrated a 21% shorter recurrence-free time (survival time ratio = 0.79, 95% CI 0.62–0.99) and the homozygous risk allele carriers a 39% shorter recurrence-free time (survival time ratio = 0.61, 95% CI 0.37–1.0) (P=0.037). Conclusion Risk alleles at the 4q25 loci predict impaired clinical response to AF ablation in a population of predominately typical AF patients. Our findings suggest the rs2200733 polymorphism may hold promise as an as an objectively measured patient characteristic that can used as a clinical tool for selection of patients for AF ablation. PMID:23178686

  17. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  18. Risk, treatment duration, and recurrence risk of postpartum affective disorder in women with no prior psychiatric history

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Marie-Louise H; Strøm, Marin; Wohlfahrt, Jan

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Some 5%-15% of all women experience postpartum depression (PPD), which for many is their first psychiatric disorder. The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of postpartum affective disorder (AD), duration of treatment, and rate of subsequent postpartum AD and other...... total of 789,068 births) and no prior psychiatric hospital contacts and/or use of antidepressants. These women were followed from 1 January 1996 to 31 December 2014. Postpartum AD was defined as use of antidepressants and/or hospital contact for PPD within 6 months after childbirth. The main outcome.......4%. The recurrence risk of postpartum AD for women with a PPD hospital contact after first birth was 55.4 per 100 person-years; for women with postpartum antidepressant medication after first birth, it was 35.0 per 100 person-years. The rate of postpartum AD after second birth for women with no history of postpartum...

  19. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  20. Recurrent Meningitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, Jon; Galen, Benjamin T

    2017-07-01

    Recurrent meningitis is a rare clinical scenario that can be self-limiting or life threatening depending on the underlying etiology. This review describes the causes, risk factors, treatment, and prognosis for recurrent meningitis. As a general overview of a broad topic, the aim of this review is to provide clinicians with a comprehensive differential diagnosis to aide in the evaluation and management of a patient with recurrent meningitis. New developments related to understanding the pathophysiology of recurrent meningitis are as scarce as studies evaluating the treatment and prevention of this rare disorder. A trial evaluating oral valacyclovir suppression after HSV-2 meningitis did not demonstrate a benefit in preventing recurrences. The data on prophylactic antibiotics after basilar skull fractures do not support their use. Intrathecal trastuzumab has shown promise in treating leptomeningeal carcinomatosis from HER-2 positive breast cancer. Monoclonal antibodies used to treat cancer and autoimmune diseases are new potential causes of drug-induced aseptic meningitis. Despite their potential for causing recurrent meningitis, the clinical entities reviewed herein are not frequently discussed together given that they are a heterogeneous collection of unrelated, rare diseases. Epidemiologic data on recurrent meningitis are lacking. The syndrome of recurrent benign lymphocytic meningitis described by Mollaret in 1944 was later found to be closely related to HSV-2 reactivation, but HSV-2 is by no means the only etiology of recurrent aseptic meningitis. While the mainstay of treatment for recurrent meningitis is supportive care, it is paramount to ensure that reversible and treatable causes have been addressed for further prevention.

  1. Perception of Recurrent Stroke Risk among Black, White and Hispanic Ischemic Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack Survivors: The SWIFT Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden-Albala, Bernadette; Carman, Heather; Moran, Megan; Doyle, Margaret; Paik, Myunghee C.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives Risk modification through behavior change is critical for primary and secondary stroke prevention. Theories of health behavior identify perceived risk as an important component to facilitate behavior change; however, little is known about perceived risk of vascular events among stroke survivors. Methods The SWIFT (Stroke Warning Information and Faster Treatment) study includes a prospective population-based ethnically diverse cohort of ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack survivors. We investigate the baseline relationship between demographics, health beliefs, and knowledge on risk perception. Regression models examined predictors of inaccurate perception. Results Only 20% accurately estimated risk, 10% of the participants underestimated risk, and 70% of the 817 study participants significantly overestimated their risk for a recurrent stroke. The mean perceived likelihood of recurrent ischemic stroke in the next 10 years was 51 ± 7%. We found no significant differences by race-ethnicity with regard to accurate estimation of risk. Inaccurate estimation of risk was associated with attitudes and beliefs [worry (p risk factors. Conclusion This paper provides a unique perspective on how factors such as belief systems influence risk perception in a diverse population at high stroke risk. There is a need for future research on how risk perception can inform primary and secondary stroke prevention. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel PMID:21894045

  2. Risk Factors for Chronic Subdural Hematoma Recurrence Identified Using Quantitative Computed Tomography Analysis of Hematoma Volume and Density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrinou, Pantelis; Katsigiannis, Sotirios; Lee, Jong Hun; Hamisch, Christina; Krischek, Boris; Mpotsaris, Anastasios; Timmer, Marco; Goldbrunner, Roland

    2017-03-01

    Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH), a common condition in elderly patients, presents a therapeutic challenge with recurrence rates of 33%. We aimed to identify specific prognostic factors for recurrence using quantitative analysis of hematoma volume and density. We retrospectively reviewed radiographic and clinical data of 227 CSDHs in 195 consecutive patients who underwent evacuation of the hematoma through a single burr hole, 2 burr holes, or a mini-craniotomy. To examine the relationship between hematoma recurrence and various clinical, radiologic, and surgical factors, we used quantitative image-based analysis to measure the hematoma and trapped air volumes and the hematoma densities. Recurrence of CSDH occurred in 35 patients (17.9%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the percentage of hematoma drained and postoperative CSDH density were independent risk factors for recurrence. All 3 evacuation methods were equally effective in draining the hematoma (71.7% vs. 73.7% vs. 71.9%) without observable differences in postoperative air volume captured in the subdural space. Quantitative image analysis provided evidence that percentage of hematoma drained and postoperative CSDH density are independent prognostic factors for subdural hematoma recurrence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  4. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  5. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  6. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  7. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  8. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  9. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  10. Risk Factors Associated With Pediatric Acute Recurrent and Chronic Pancreatitis: Lessons From INSPPIRE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Soma; Ooi, Chee Y; Werlin, Steven; Abu-El-Haija, Maisam; Barth, Bradley; Bellin, Melena D; Durie, Peter R; Fishman, Douglas S; Freedman, Steven D; Gariepy, Cheryl; Giefer, Matthew J; Gonska, Tanja; Heyman, Melvin B; Himes, Ryan; Husain, Sohail Z; Lin, Tom K; Lowe, Mark E; Morinville, Veronique; Palermo, Joseph J; Pohl, John F; Schwarzenberg, Sarah Jane; Troendle, David; Wilschanski, Michael; Zimmerman, M Bridget; Uc, Aliye

    2016-06-01

    Pediatric acute recurrent pancreatitis (ARP) and chronic pancreatitis (CP) are poorly understood. To characterize and identify risk factors associated with ARP and CP in childhood. A multinational cross-sectional study of children with ARP or CP at the time of enrollment to the INSPPIRE (International Study Group of Pediatric Pancreatitis: In Search for a Cure) study at participant institutions of the INSPPIRE Consortium. From August 22, 2012, to February 8, 2015, 155 children with ARP and 146 with CP (aged ≤19 years) were enrolled. Their demographic and clinical information was entered into the REDCap (Research Electronic Data Capture) database at the 15 centers. Differences were analyzed using 2-sample t test or Wilcoxon rank sum test for continuous variables and Pearson χ2 test or Fisher exact test for categorical variables. Disease burden variables (pain variables, hospital/emergency department visits, missed school days) were compared using Wilcoxon rank sum test. Demographic characteristics, risk factors, abdominal pain, and disease burden. A total of 301 children were enrolled (mean [SD] age, 11.9 [4.5] years; 172 [57%] female); 155 had ARP and 146 had CP. The majority of children with CP (123 of 146 [84%]) reported prior recurrent episodes of acute pancreatitis. Sex distribution was similar between the groups (57% female in both). Hispanic children were less likely to have CP than ARP (17% vs 28%, respectively; odds ratio [OR] = 0.51; 95% CI, 0.29-0.92; P = .02). At least 1 gene mutation in pancreatitis-related genes was found in 48% of patients with ARP vs 73% of patients with CP (P toxic/metabolic risk factors were more common in children with ARP (21% overall; 26% in the ARP group and 15% in the CP group; OR = 0.55; 95% CI, 0.31-0.99; P = .046). Pancreatitis-related abdominal pain was a major symptom in 81% of children with ARP or CP within the last year. The disease burden was greater in the CP group compared with the ARP group

  11. Anxiety and depression in breast cancer patients at low risk of recurrence compared with the general population: a valid comparison?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenvold, M.; Fayers, P. M.; Sprangers, M. A.; Bjorner, J. B.; Klee, M. C.; Aaronson, N. K.; Bech, P.; Mouridsen, H. T.

    1999-01-01

    Breast cancer and its treatment have been associated with psychological morbidity. In this study our aim was to quantify the excess anxiety and depression resulting from breast cancer. We compared 538 newly diagnosed breast cancer patients at low risk of recurrence (87.0% responded) to 872 women

  12. Vitamin D status in relation to one-year risk of recurrent falling in older men and woman

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijder, M.B.; van Schoor, N.M.; Pluijm, S.M.F.; van Dam, R.M.; Visser, M.; Lips, P.T.A.M.

    2006-01-01

    Background: Falls frequently occur in the elderly and are a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Objective: The objective of the study was to prospectively investigate the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels and risk of recurrent falling in older men and women. Design:

  13. Vitamin D status in relation to one-year risk of recurrent falling in older men and women

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.B. Snijder (Marieke); N.M. van Schoor (Natasja); S. Pluijm (Saskia); R.M. van Dam (Rob); M. Visser (Marjolein); P. Lips (Paul)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Falls frequently occur in the elderly and are a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Objective: The objective of the study was to prospectively investigate the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels and risk of recurrent falling in older men and

  14. Long-term Compliance with Oral 5-aminosalicylic Acid Therapy and Risk of Disease Recurrence in Patients with Ulcerative Colitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prosberg, Michelle V; Vester-Andersen, Marianne K; Andersson, Mikael

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Noncompliance to long-term medical therapy is a well-known problem among patients treated for ulcerative colitis, but studies of long-term consequences in unselected patients are lacking. The authors aimed to determine the risk of recurrence according to long-term compliance with oral 5...

  15. Risk of biochemical recurrence and positive surgical margins in patients with pT2 prostate cancer undergoing radical prostatectomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røder, Martin Andreas; Thomsen, Frederik Birkebæk; Berg, Kasper Drimer

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To investigate risk factors associated with positive surgical margins (PSM) and biochemical recurrence (BR) in organ confined tumors (pT2) after radical prostatectomy (RP) for localized prostate cancer (PCa). METHODS: Between 1995 and 2011, 1,649 patients underwent RP...

  16. Haptoglobin phenotype is not a predictor of recurrence free survival in high-risk primary breast cancer patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gast, M.C.; van Tinteren, H.; Bontenbal, M.; van Hoesel, R.Q.; Nooij, M.A.; Rodenhuis, S.; Span, P.N.; Tjan-Heijnen, V.C.; de Vries, E.G.; Harris, N.; Twisk, J.W.R.; Schellens, J.H.; Beijnen, J.H.

    2008-01-01

    Background: Better breast cancer prognostication may improve selection of patients for adjuvant therapy. We conducted a retrospective follow-up study in which we investigated sera of high-risk primary breast cancer patients, to search for proteins predictive of recurrence free survival. Methods: Two

  17. Haptoglobin phenotype is not a predictor of recurrence free survival in high-risk primary breast cancer patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C.W. Gast; H. van Tinteren (Harm); M. Bontenbal (Marijke); R.Q.G.C.M. van Hoesel (René); M.A. Nooij; S. Rodenhuis (Sjoerd); P.N. Span (Paul); V.C.G. Tjan-Heijnen (Vivianne); E. de Vries (Esther); N. Harris (Nathan); J.W.R. Twisk (Jos); J.H.M. Schellens (Jan); J.H. Beijnen (Jos)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Better breast cancer prognostication may improve selection of patients for adjuvant therapy. We conducted a retrospective follow-up study in which we investigated sera of high-risk primary breast cancer patients, to search for proteins predictive of recurrence free survival.

  18. Haptoglobin phenotype is not a predictor of recurrence free survival in high-risk primary breast cancer patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gast, Marie-Christine W.; van Tinteren, Harm; Bontenbal, Marijke; van Hoesel, Rene Q. G. C. M.; Nooij, Marianne A.; Rodenhuis, Sjoerd; Span, Paul N.; Tjan-Heijnen, Vivianne C. G.; de Vries, Elisabeth G. E.; Harris, Nathan; Twisk, Jos W. R.; Schellens, Jan H. M.; Beijnen, Jos H.

    2008-01-01

    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Better breast cancer prognostication may improve selection of patients for adjuvant therapy. We conducted a retrospective follow-up study in which we investigated sera of high-risk primary breast cancer patients, to search for proteins predictive of recurrence free survival.

  19. Haptoglobin phenotype is not a predictor of recurrence free survival in high-risk primary breast cancer patients.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gast, M.C.; Tinteren, H. van; Bontenbal, M.; Hoesel, R.Q. van; Nooij, M.A.; Rodenhuis, S.; Span, P.N.; Tjan-Heijnen, V.C.; Vries, E.G.F. de; Harris, N.; Twisk, J.W.R.; Schellens, J.H.; Beijnen, J.H.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Better breast cancer prognostication may improve selection of patients for adjuvant therapy. We conducted a retrospective follow-up study in which we investigated sera of high-risk primary breast cancer patients, to search for proteins predictive of recurrence free survival. METHODS: Two

  20. Risk factors for aggressive recurrent respiratory papillomatosis in adults and juveniles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Turid Omland

    Full Text Available In this cohort study we examined whether gender, age at onset, observation time or human papillomavirus (HPV genotype are risk factors for an aggressive clinical course in Recurrent Respiratory Papillomatosis (RRP. Clinical data from patient records comprised gender, age at onset, date of first endolaryngeal procedure with biopsy, date of last follow-up, total number of endolaryngeal procedures, and complications during the observation period. Disease was defined as juvenile (JoRRP or adult onset (AoRRP according to whether the disease was acquired before or after the age of 18. Aggressive disease was defined as distal spread, tracheostomy, four surgical operations annually or >10 surgeries in total. DNA was extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue. HPV genotyping was performed by quantitative PCR assay identifying 15 HPV genotypes. The study included 224 patients. The majority were males (141/174 in AoRRPs and 31/50 in JoRRPs; p = 0.005. The median follow-up from initial diagnosis was 12.0 years (IQR 3.7-32.9 for JoRRPs and 4.0 years (IQR 0.8-11.7 for AoRRPs. The disease was more aggressive in juveniles than adults (p10 years (OR = 13.41, 95% CI [5.46, 32.99[, p10 years were risk factors for an aggressive disease course in AoRRPs.

  1. Recurrent Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Linnea Boegeskov; Goertz, Sanne; Wohlfahrt, Jan

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a disease with high mortality and a substantial risk of recurrence. However, the recurrence risk is poorly documented and the knowledge of potential predictors for recurrence among co-morbidities and medicine with antithrombotic effect is limited....... OBJECTIVES: 1) To estimate the short- and long-term cumulative risks of recurrent intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). 2) To investigate associations between typical comorbid diseases, surgical treatment, use of medicine with antithrombotic effects, including antithrombotic treatment (ATT), selective serotonin...

  2. The ARTICO study: identification of patients at high risk of vascular recurrence after a first non-cardioembolic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serena, Joaquín; Segura, Tomás; Roquer, Jaume; García-Gil, María; Castillo, José

    2015-03-11

    About 20% of patients with a first ischaemic stroke will experience a new vascular event within the first year. The atherosclerotic burden, an indicator of the extension of atherosclerosis in a patient, has been associated with the risk of new cardiovascular events in the general population. However, no predictive models reliably identify groups at a high risk of recurrence. The ARTICO study prospectively analysed the predictive value for the risk of recurrence of specific atherosclerotic markers. The multicentre ARTICO study included 620 consecutive independent patients older than 60 years suffering from a first non-cardioembolic stroke. We analysed classical stroke risk factors; duplex study of supraaortic trunk including intima-media thickness (IMT) measurement; quantification of internal carotid (ICA) stenosis; number, morphology and surface characteristics of carotid plaques; ankle brachial index (ABI); and the presence of microalbuminuria. Patients were followed up at 6 and 12 months after inclusion. The primary end-point was death or major cardiovascular events. Any vascular event or death at 12 months occurred in 78 (13.8%) patients. In 40 (7.1%) of these the vascular event was a stroke recurrence. Weight, history of diabetes mellitus, history of symptomatic PAD, ABI 50%) were associated with a higher risk of vascular events on follow-up in the bivariate analysis. In the final Cox regression analysis, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes mellitus, symptomatic PAD (HR, 2.76; 95% CI, 1.10-6.95; p=0.03), and particularly patients with both ICA stenosis >50% and PAD (HR 4.52; 95% CI, 2.14-9.53; p50% nor isolated abnormal ABI remained associated with an increased risk of recurrence in comparison with the whole population. Symptomatic PAD identifies a high risk group of vascular recurrence after a first non-cardioembolic stroke. The associated increased risk was particularly high in patients with both ICA stenosis and either

  3. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  4. Risk factor assessment in high-risk, bacillus Calmette–Guérin-treated, non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holz S

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Serge Holz,* Simone Albisinni,* Jacques Gilsoul, Michel Pirson, Véronique Duthie, Thierry Quackels, Marc Vanden Bossche, Thierry Roumeguère Department of Urology, Erasme Hospital, Université libre de Bruxelles, Belgium *These authors contributed equally to this work Objective: To assess the risk factors associated with recurrence, progression and survival in high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC patients treated with bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG and validate the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC and Spanish Urological Club for Oncological Treatment (CUETO scores.Patients and methods: We retrospectively analyzed all BCG-treated NMIBC patients from 1998 to 2012. Multiple variables were tested as risk factors for recurrence-free survival and progression-free survival (PFS. Variables included age, sex, grade, stage, tumor size, number of tumors, carcinoma in situ (CIS, recurrence status, BCG strain used, smoking status, use of re-staging transurethral resection and use of single immediate postoperative instillation. We also tested the accuracy of EORTC and CUETO scores in predicting recurrence and progression.Results: Overall, 123 patients were analyzed. Median (interquartile range follow-up was 49 months. The 5-year overall survival, cancer-specific survival, recurrence-free survival and PFS were 75.0%, 89.3%, 59.4% and 79.2%, respectively. On univariate analysis, multiple tumors (≥3, concomitant CIS and smoking influenced recurrence. Regarding progression, multiple tumors, concomitant CIS and Connaught strain (vs Tice negatively influenced PFS on univariate and multivariate analyses were independent prognostic factors. CUETO scores were accurate, with a slight overestimation, while EORTC score was not predictive of recurrence or progression.Conclusion: In this study, CIS and tumor multiplicity were unfavorable predictors of recurrence and progression in patients with NMIBC receiving BCG

  5. Hyperinsulinemia and hyperglycemia: risk factors for recurrence of benign paroxysmal positional vertigo

    OpenAIRE

    Webster, Guilherme; Sens, Patrícia Maria; Salmito, Márcio Cavalcante; Cavalcante, José Diogo Rijo; Santos, Paula Regina Bonifácio dos; Silva, Ana Lívia Muniz da; Souza, Érica Carla Figueiredo de

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Changes in carbohydrate metabolism may lead to recurrence of benign paroxysmal positional vertigo.OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of the disturbance of carbohydrate metabolism in the recurrence of idiopathic BPPV.METHODS: A longitudinal prospective study of a cohort, with 41 months follow-up. We analyzed the results of 72 glucose-insulin curves in patients with recurrence of BPPV. The curves were classified into intolerance, hyperinsulinemia, hyperglycemia and normal.RESULT...

  6. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  7. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  8. Role of antithrombotic therapy in the risk of hematoma recurrence and thromboembolism after chronic subdural hematoma evacuation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fornebo, Ida; Sjåvik, Kristin; Alibeck, Mark

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To establish the risk of recurrence in patients with chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH) on antithrombotic treatment (AT, i.e., antiplatelets and anticoagulants). Secondary end points were perioperative morbidity and mortality between groups (AT vs. no-AT group) and exploration if timing...... of resumption of AT treatment (i.e., prophylactic early vs. late resumption) influenced the occurrence of thromboembolism and hematoma recurrence. MATERIALS: In a population-based consecutive cohort, we conducted a retrospective review of 763 patients undergoing primary burr hole procedures for cSDH between...

  9. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  10. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  11. Persistent hemifacial spasm after microvascular decompression: a risk assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Aalap; Horowitz, Michael

    2017-06-01

    Microvascular decompression (MVD) for hemifacial spasm (HFS) provides resolution of disabling symptoms such as eyelid twitching and muscle contractions of the entire hemiface. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of patient demographics and spasm characteristics on long-term outcomes, with or without intraoperative lateral spread response (LSR) as an additional variable in a risk assessment model. A retrospective study was undertaken to evaluate the associations of pre-operative patient characteristics, as well as intraoperative LSR and need for a staged procedure on the presence of persistent or recurrent HFS at the time of hospital discharge and at follow-up. A risk assessment model was constructed with the inclusion of six clinically or statistically significant variables from the univariate analyses. A receiving operator characteristic curve was generated, and area under the curve was calculated to determine the strength of the predictive model. A risk assessment model was first created consisting of significant pre-operative variables (Model 1) (age >50, female gender, history of botulinum toxin use, platysma muscle involvement). This model demonstrated borderline predictive value for persistent spasm at discharge (AUC .60; p=.045) and fair predictive value at follow-up (AUC .75; p=.001). Intraoperative variables (e.g. LSR persistence) demonstrated little additive value (Model 2) (AUC .67). Patients with a higher risk score (three or greater) demonstrated greater odds of persistent HFS at the time of discharge (OR 1.5 [95%CI 1.16-1.97]; p=.035), as well as greater odds of persistent or recurrent spasm at the time of follow-up (OR 3.0 [95%CI 1.52-5.95]; p=.002) Conclusions: A risk assessment model consisting of pre-operative clinical characteristics is useful in prognosticating HFS persistence at follow-up.

  12. Severe Obesity Impacts Recurrence-Free Survival of Women with High-Risk Endometrial Cancer: Results of a French Multicenter Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canlorbe, Geoffroy; Bendifallah, Sofiane; Raimond, Emilie; Graesslin, Olivier; Hudry, Delphine; Coutant, Charles; Touboul, Cyril; Bleu, Géraldine; Collinet, Pierre; Darai, Emile; Ballester, Marcos

    2015-08-01

    Studies focusing on the impact of obesity on survival in endometrial cancer (EC) have reported controversial results and few data exist on the impact of obesity on recurrence rate and recurrence-free survival (RFS). The aim of this study was to assess the impact of obesity on surgical staging and RFS in EC according to the European Society of Medical Oncology (ESMO) risk groups. Data of 729 women with EC who received primary surgical treatment between January 2000 and December 2012 were abstracted from a multicenter database. RFS distributions according to body mass index (BMI) in each ESMO risk group were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Survival was evaluated using the log-rank test, and the Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine influence of multiple variables. Distribution of the 729 women with EC according to BMI was BMI women with a BMI ≥ 35 (72 %) than for those with a BMI obese women in the low-/intermediate-risk groups, but a BMI ≥ 35 was independently correlated to a poorer RFS (hazard ratio 12.5; 95 % confidence interval 3.1-51.3) for women in the high-risk group. Severe obesity negatively impacts RFS in women with high-risk EC, underlining the importance of complete surgical staging and adapted adjuvant therapies in this subgroup of women.

  13. Association of Environmental Contamination in the Home With the Risk for Recurrent Community-Associated, Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knox, Justin; Sullivan, Sean B; Urena, Julia; Miller, Maureen; Vavagiakis, Peter; Shi, Qiuhu; Uhlemann, Anne-Catrin; Lowy, Franklin D

    2016-06-01

    The role of environmental contamination in recurrent Staphylococcus aureus infections within households and its potential effect on intervention strategies has been debated recently. To assess whether household environmental contamination increases the risk for recurrent infection among individuals with a community-associated methicillin-resistant S aureus (MRSA) infection. This cohort study was conducted from November 1, 2011, to June 30, 2014, in the Columbia University Medical Center catchment area. All patients within 72 hours of presentation with skin or soft-tissue infections and blood, urine, or sputum cultures positive for MRSA were identified. Two hundred sixty-two patients met study inclusion criteria; 83 of these (31.7%) agreed to participate (index patients) with 214 household members. Participants were followed up for 6 months, and 62 of the 83 households (74.7%) completed follow-up. Participants and researchers were blinded to exposure status throughout the study. Follow-up was completed on June 30, 2014, and data were assessed from July 1, 2014, to February 19, 2016. Concordant environmental contamination, defined as having an isolate with the identical staphylococcal protein A and staphylococcal chromosomal cassette mec type or antibiogram type as the index patient's clinical isolate, present on 1 or more environmental surfaces at the time of a home visit to the index patient after infection. Index recurrent infection, defined as any self-reported infection among the index patients during follow-up. One patient did not complete any follow-up. Of the remaining 82 index patients, 53 (64.6%) were female and 59 (72.0%) were Hispanic. The mean age was 30 (SD, 20; range, 1-79) years. Forty-nine of 61 MRSA infections where the clinical isolate could be obtained (80.3%) were due to the epidemic strain USA300. Among the 82 households in which a patient had an index MRSA infection, the clinical isolate was present in the environment in 20 (24.4%) and not

  14. Flood risk assessment and mapping for the Lebanese watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdallah, Chadi; Hdeib, Rouya

    2016-04-01

    Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase. The Eastern Mediterranean area, including Lebanon (10452 Km2, 4.5 M habitant), has witnessed in the past few decades an increase frequency of flooding events. This study profoundly assess the flood risk over Lebanon covering all the 17 major watersheds and a number of small sub-catchments. It evaluate the physical direct tangible damages caused by floods. The risk assessment and evaluation process was carried out over three stages; i) Evaluating Assets at Risk, where the areas and assets vulnerable to flooding are identified, ii) Vulnerability Assessment, where the causes of vulnerability are assessed and the value of the assets are provided, iii) Risk Assessment, where damage functions are established and the consequent damages of flooding are estimated. A detailed Land CoverUse map was prepared at a scale of 1/ 1 000 using 0.4 m resolution satellite images within the flood hazard zones. The detailed field verification enabled to allocate and characterize all elements at risk, identify hotspots, interview local witnesses, and to correlate and calibrate previous flood damages with the utilized models. All filed gathered information was collected through Mobile Application and transformed to be standardized and classified under GIS environment. Consequently; the general damage evaluation and risk maps at different flood recurrence periods (10, 50, 100 years) were established. Major results showed that floods in a winter season (December, January, and February) of 10 year recurrence and of water retention ranging from 1 to 3 days can cause total damages (losses) that reach 1.14 M for crop lands and 2.30 M for green houses. Whereas, it may cause 0.2 M to losses in fruit trees for a flood retention ranging from 3 to 5 days. These numbers differs

  15. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  16. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  17. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  18. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  19. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  20. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  1. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  2. Impact of the number of aspiration risk factors on mortality and recurrence in community-onset pneumonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noguchi S

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Shingo Noguchi,1 Kazuhiro Yatera,1 Tatsuji Kato,2 Yasuo Chojin,2 Yoshihisa Fujino,3 Kentaro Akata,1 Toshinori Kawanami,1 Noriho Sakamoto,4 Hiroshi Mukae4 1Department of Respiratory Medicine, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, Kitakyushu, Japan; 2Department of Respiratory Medicine, Tobata Kyoritsu Hospital, Kitakyushu, Japan; 3Department of Preventive Medicine and Community Health, School of Medicine, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, Kitakyushu, Japan; 4Department of Respiratory Medicine, Unit of Translational Medicine, Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Nagasaki, Japan Introduction: The clinical significance of the number of aspiration risk factors in patients with pneumonia is unknown as yet. In the present study, we clarify the significance of the number of aspiration risk factors for mortality and recurrence in pneumonia patients.Methods: This study included 322 patients hospitalized with pneumonia between December 2014 and June 2016. We investigated associations between the number of aspiration risk factors present (orientation disturbance, bedridden, chronic cerebrovascular disease, dementia, sleeping medications and gastroesophageal disease and 30-day and 6-month mortality, and pneumonia recurrence within 30 days.Results: Patients were categorized by number of risk factors present into groups of 0–1, 2, 3, and 4 or more. Of a total of 322 patients, 93 (28.9% had 0–1 risk factors, 112 (34.8% had 2, 88 (27.3% had 3, and 29 (9.0% had 4 or more risk factors. The percentages of patients with recurrence of pneumonia were 13.0%, 33.0%, 43.2%, and 54.2% in the 0–1, 2, 3, and 4 or more risk factor groups, respectively. The percentages of patients with 30-day mortality were 2.2%, 5.4%, 11.4%, and 24.1%, and those of patients with 6-month mortality were 6.6%, 24.5%, 30.7%, and 50.0%, in the 0–1, 2, 3, and 4 or more risk factor groups, respectively.Conclusions: The number of

  3. Surgical Margins and the Risk of Local-Regional Recurrence After Mastectomy Without Radiation Therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Childs, Stephanie K.; Chen Yuhui; Duggan, Margaret M.; Golshan, Mehra; Pochebit, Stephen; Wong, Julia S.; Bellon, Jennifer R.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Although positive surgical margins are generally associated with a higher risk of local-regional recurrence (LRR) for most solid tumors, their significance after mastectomy remains unclear. We sought to clarify the influence of the mastectomy margin on the risk of LRR. Methods and Materials: The retrospective cohort consisted of 397 women who underwent mastectomy and no radiation for newly diagnosed invasive breast cancer from 1998-2005. Time to isolated LRR and time to distant metastasis (DM) were evaluated by use of cumulative-incidence analysis and competing-risks regression analysis. DM was considered a competing event for analysis of isolated LRR. Results: The median follow-up was 6.7 years (range, 0.5-12.8 years). The superficial margin was positive in 41 patients (10%) and close (≤2 mm) in 56 (14%). The deep margin was positive in 23 patients (6%) and close in 34 (9%). The 5-year LRR and DM rates for all patients were 2.4% (95% confidence interval, 0.9-4.0) and 3.5% (95% confidence interval, 1.6-5.3) respectively. Fourteen patients had an LRR. Margin status was significantly associated with time to isolated LRR (P=.04); patients with positive margins had a 5-year LRR of 6.2%, whereas patients with close margins and negative margins had 5-year LRRs of 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively. On univariate analysis, positive margins, positive nodes, lymphovascular invasion, grade 3 histology, and triple-negative subtype were associated with significantly higher rates of LRR. When these factors were included in a multivariate analysis, only positive margins and triple-negative subtype were associated with the risk of LRR. Conclusions: Patients with positive mastectomy margins had a significantly higher rate of LRR than those with a close or negative margin. However, the absolute risk of LRR in patients with a positive surgical margin in this series was low, and therefore the benefit of postmastectomy radiation in this population with otherwise favorable features

  4. Lentigo maligna - anatomic location as a potential risk factor for recurrences after non-surgical treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Greveling (Karin); van der Klok, T. (Th.); M.B.A. van Doorn (Martijn); V. Noordhoek Hegt (Vincent); E.P. Prens (Errol)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractBackground: A higher incidence of lentigo maligna (LM) recurrences on the nose was previously observed in our cohort after non-surgical treatment. Objectives: To determine histological parameters that might be related to the previously observed higher incidence of LM recurrences on the

  5. Recurrent bacteraemia: A 10-year regional population-based study of clinical and microbiological risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, U.S.; Knudsen, J.D.; Andersen, Christian Østergaard

    2010-01-01

    Background: A population-based nested case-control study was conducted in order to characterize patient factors and microbial species associated with recurrent bacteraemia. Methods: All patients with bacteraemia in a Danish region during 1996-2006 were investigated. Recurrence was defined based o...

  6. Risk factors for recurrent cystitis following acute cystitis in female patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Byung Il; Kim, Sun Wook; Ha, U-Syn; Sohn, Dong Wan; Cho, Yong-Hyun

    2013-08-01

    We conducted a retrospective analysis of acute cystitis (AC) patients to evaluate the risk factors of recurrent cystitis (RC) patients following AC. The clinical records of 254 subjects with a confirmed diagnosis of AC and 90 healthy subjects who visited the Health Promotion Center between 2008 and 2012 were reviewed. A patient was diagnosed with RC if she was treated for three or more symptomatic episodes of cystitis over a 12-month period. Results were analyzed according to three groups: normal control (group A, n = 90), AC (group B, n = 121), and RC (group C, n = 133). Women in the cystitis groups (groups B and C) were more likely to have diabetes, be menopausal, have a history of catheterization or sexually transmitted infections (STI), have a low daily water intake, have frequent sexual intercourse, and to use contraception more frequently than the normal control group (P sexual intercourse more than four times per month, sexual intercourse in the last month, and the use of contraceptives (P < 0.05). The identification of these factors may help develop preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic strategies for treating RC that has progressed from AC.

  7. Long-term predictive value of postsurgical cortisol concentrations for cure and risk of recurrence in Cushing's disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pereira, Alberto M.; van Aken, Maarten O.; van Dulken, Hans; Schutte, Pieter J.; Biermasz, Nienke R.; Smit, Jan W. A.; Roelfsema, Ferdinand; Romijn, Johannes A.

    2003-01-01

    We assessed the value of postoperative plasma cortisol concentrations to predict cure and recurrence of Cushing's disease after transsphenoidal surgery (TS). Seventy-eight of 80 consecutive patients treated by TS for Cushing's disease were evaluated. TS cured 72% (n = 56) of the patients. Two weeks

  8. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  9. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  10. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  11. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  12. Assessment of erosion hazard after recurrence fires with the RUSLE 3D MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecín-Arias, Daniel; Palencia, Covadonga; Fernández Raga, María

    2016-04-01

    The objective of this work is to calculate if there is more soil erosion after the recurrence of several forest fires on an area. To that end, it has been studied an area of 22 130 ha because has a high frequency of fires. This area is located in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula. The assessment of erosion hazard was calculated in several times using Geographic Information Systems (GIS).The area have been divided into several plots according to the number of times they have been burnt in the past 15 years. Due to the complexity that has to make a detailed study of a so large field and that there are not information available anually, it is necessary to select the more interesting moments. In august 2012 it happened the most agressive and extensive fire of the area. So the study was focused on the erosion hazard for 2011 and 2014, because they are the date before and after from the fire of 2012 in which there are orthophotos available. RUSLE3D model (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) was used to calculate maps erosion losses. This model improves the traditional USLE (Wischmeier and D., 1965) because it studies the influence of the concavity / convexity (Renard et al., 1997), and improves the estimation of the slope factor LS (Renard et al., 1991). It is also one of the most commonly used models in literatura (Mitasova et al., 1996; Terranova et al., 2009). The tools used are free and accessible, using GIS "gvSIG" (http://www.gvsig.com/es) and the metadata were taken from Spatial Data Infrastructure of Spain webpage (IDEE, 2016). However the RUSLE model has many critics as some authors who suggest that only serves to carry out comparisons between areas, and not for the calculation of absolute soil loss data. These authors argue that in field measurements the actual recovered eroded soil can suppose about one-third of the values obtained with the model (Šúri et al., 2002). The study of the area shows that the error detected by the critics could come from

  13. Identification of Patients at Very Low Risk of Local Recurrence After Breast-Conserving Surgery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Sally L., E-mail: ssmith11@bccancer.bc.ca [Radiation Therapy Program and Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver Island Centre, University of British Columbia, Victoria, British Columbia (Canada); Truong, Pauline T. [Radiation Therapy Program and Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver Island Centre, University of British Columbia, Victoria, British Columbia (Canada); Lu, Linghong; Lesperance, Mary [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia (Canada); Olivotto, Ivo A. [Division of Radiation Oncology, Tom Baker Cancer Centre, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2014-07-01

    Purpose: To identify clinical and pathological factors that identify groups of women with stage I breast cancer with a 5-year risk of local recurrence (LR) ≤1.5% after breast-conserving therapy (BCS) plus whole-breast radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: Study subjects were 5974 patients ≥50 years of age whose cancer was diagnosed between 1989 and 2006, and were referred with pT1 pN0 invasive breast cancer treated with BCS and RT. Cases of 5- and 10-year LR were examined using Kaplan-Meier methods. Recursive partitioning analysis was performed in patients treated with and without endocrine therapy to identify combinations of factors associated with a 5-year LR risk ≤1.5%. Results: The median follow-up was 8.61 years. Median age was 63 years of age (range, 50 to 91). Overall 5-year LR was 1.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2%-1.9%) and 10-year LR was 3.4% (95% CI, 2.8%-4.0%). Of 2830 patients treated with endocrine therapy, patient subsets identified with 5-year LR ≤1.5% included patients with grade 1 histology (n=1038; LR, 0.2%; 95% CI, 0%-0.5%) or grade 2 histology plus ≥60 years of age (n=843; LR, 0.5%; 95% CI, 0%-1.0%). Ten-year LR for these groups were 0.8% (95% CI, 0.1%-1.6%) and 0.9% (95% CI, 0.2%-1.6%), respectively. Of 3144 patients treated without endocrine therapy, patients with grade 1 histology plus clear margins had 5-year LR ≤1.5% (n=821; LR, 0.6%; 95% CI, 0.1%-1.2%). Ten-year LR for this group was 2.2% (95% CI, 1.0%-3.4%). Conclusions: Histologic grade, age, margin status, and use of endocrine therapy identified 45% of a population-based cohort of female patients over age 50 with stage I breast cancer with a 5-year LR risk ≤1.5% after BCS plus RT. Prospective study is needed to evaluate the safety of omitting RT in patients with such a low risk of LR.

  14. Recurrent respiratory papillomatosis: HPV genotypes and risk of high-grade laryngeal neoplasia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Turid Omland

    Full Text Available Patients with recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP in Norway treated between 1987 and 2009 were recruited to this cohort study. They were followed from disease onset and data recorded until January 2012. Here, we describe the distribution of human papillomavirus (HPV genotypes, the prevalence of multiple HPV infections, and the risk of high-grade laryngeal neoplasia and respiratory tract invasive carcinoma in a large cohort of patients with RRP. We also examined whether HPV genotype, gender, age or clinical course are risk factors for this development. Clinical records and histological specimens were reviewed. Using formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded biopsies, HPV genotyping were performed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction assays identifying 15 HPV types. HPV-negative specimens were analyzed by metagenomic sequencing. Paraffin blocks were available in 224/238 patients. The DNA quality was approved in 221/224 cases. HPV DNA was detected in 207/221 patients and all were HPV 6 or HPV 11 positive, comprising HPV 6 in 133/207, HPV 11 in 40/207 cases and HPV 6/11 in 15/207 cases. Co-infection with one or two high-risk HPV types together with HPV 6 or HPV 11 was present in 19/207 patients. Metagenomic sequencing of 14 HPV-negative specimens revealed HPV 8 in one case. In total, 39/221 patients developed high-grade laryngeal neoplasia. 8/221 patients developed carcinoma of the respiratory tract (six patients with laryngeal carcinoma and two patients with lung carcinoma. High-grade laryngeal neoplasias were found more frequently in HPV-negative versus HPV-positive patients, (RR = 2.35, 95% CI 1.1, 4.99, as well as respiratory tract carcinomas (RR = 48, 95% CI 10.72, 214.91. In summary, the majority of RRP were associated with HPV 6 and/or 11. HPV-negative RRP biopsies occurred more frequently in adult-onset patients, and were associated with an increased risk of laryngeal neoplasia and carcinoma in the respiratory tract.

  15. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  16. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  17. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  18. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  19. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  20. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  1. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  2. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  3. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  4. Changes in gait performance over several years are associated with recurrent falls status in community-dwelling older women at high risk of fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, David; McLaughlin, Patrick; Nicholson, Geoff C; Ebeling, Peter R; Stuart, Amanda L; Kay, Deborah; Sanders, Kerrie M

    2015-03-01

    Gait analysis is a recommended geriatric assessment for falls risk and sarcopenia; however, previous research utilises measurements at a single time point only. It is presently unclear how changes in gait over several years influence risk of recurrent falls in older adults. We investigated 135 female volunteers (mean age±SD: 76.7±5.0 years; range: 70-92 years) at high risk of fracture. Gait parameters (speed, cadence, step length, step width, swing time and double support phase) were assessed using the GAITRite Electronic Walkway System at four annual clinics over ∼3.7±0.5 years. Participants reported incident falls monthly for 3.7±1.2 years. Increasing gait speed (odds ratio: 0.96; 95% confidence interval 0.93, 0.99) and step length (0.87; 0.77, 0.98) from baseline to final follow-up was associated with reduced likelihood of being a recurrent faller over the study period. No significant associations were observed for baseline gait parameters (all P≥0.05). At the second follow-up (2.8±0.6 years), an increase in swing time (0.65; 0.43, 0.98) was associated with reduced likelihood, while an increase in double support phase (1.31; 1.04, 1.66) was associated with increased likelihood, for being a recurrent faller in the subsequent 1.3 years following this time point. Changes in gait parameters over several years are significantly associated with the likelihood of being a recurrent faller among community-dwelling older women at high risk of fracture. Further research is required to develop gait monitoring guidelines and gait parameter decline cut points that may be utilised by clinicians to identify older adults at risk of incident falls and sarcopenia. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Frank B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  6. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  7. Alignment in the transverse plane, but not sagittal or coronal plane, affects the risk of recurrent patella dislocation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagi, Shigeru; Sato, Takashi; Watanabe, Satoshi; Tanifuji, Osamu; Mochizuki, Tomoharu; Omori, Go; Endo, Naoto

    2017-11-17

    Abnormalities of lower extremity alignment (LEA) in recurrent patella dislocation (RPD) have been studied mostly by two-dimensional (2D) procedures leaving three-dimensional (3D) factors unknown. This study aimed to three-dimensionally examine risk factors for RPD in lower extremity alignment under the weight-bearing conditions. The alignment of 21 limbs in 15 RPD subjects was compared to the alignment of 24 limbs of 12 healthy young control subjects by an our previously reported 2D-3D image-matching technique. The sagittal, coronal, and transverse alignment in full extension as well as the torsional position of the femur (anteversion) and tibia (tibial torsion) under weight-bearing standing conditions were assessed by our previously reported 3D technique. The correlations between lower extremity alignment and RPD were assessed using multiple logistic regression analysis. The difference of lower extremity alignment in RPD between under the weight-bearing conditions and under the non-weight-bearing conditions was assessed. In the sagittal and coronal planes, there was no relationship (statistically or by clinically important difference) between lower extremity alignment angle and RPD. However, in the transverse plane, increased external tibial rotation [odds ratio (OR) 1.819; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.282-2.581], increased femoral anteversion (OR 1.183; 95% CI 1.029-1.360), and increased external tibial torsion (OR 0.880; 95% CI 0.782-0.991) were all correlated with RPD. The tibia was more rotated relative to femur at the knee joint in the RPD group under the weight-bearing conditions compared to under the non-weight-bearing conditions (p alignment parameters in the transverse plane related to the risk of RPD, while in the sagittal and coronal plane alignment parameters did not correlate with RPD. The clinical importance of this study is that the 3D measurements more directly, precisely, and sensitively detect rotational parameters associated with RPD and

  8. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  9. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  10. Recurrent skin and soft tissue infections in HIV-infected patients during a 5-year period: incidence and risk factors in a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemmige, Vagish; McNulty, Moira; Silverman, Ethan; David, Michael Z

    2015-10-26

    Skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) are common in the era of community-associated methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus among HIV-infected patients. Recurrent infections are frequent. Risk factors for recurrence after an initial SSTI have not been well-studied. Retrospective cohort study, single center, 2005-2009. Paper and electronic medical records were reviewed by one of several physicians. Subjects with initial SSTI were followed until the time of SSTI recurrence. Standard descriptive statistics were calculated to describe the characteristics of subjects who did and did not develop a recurrent SSTI. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate the risk of recurrent SSTI. A Cox regression model was developed to identify predictors of SSTI recurrence. 133 SSTIs occurred in 87 individuals. 85 subjects were followed after their initial SSTI, of whom 30 (35.3 %) had a recurrent SSTI in 118.3 person-years of follow-up, for an incidence of second SSTI of 253.6 SSTIs/1000 person-years (95 % CI 166.8-385.7). The 1-year Kaplan-Meier estimated risk of a second SSTI was 29.2 % (95 % CI 20.3-41.0 %), while the 3-year risk was 47.0 % (95 % CI 34.4-61.6 %). Risk factors for recurrent SSTI in a multivariable Cox regression model were non-hepatitis liver disease (HR 3.44; 95 % CI 1.02-11.5; p = 0.05), the presence of an intravenous catheter (HR 6.50; 95 % CI 1.47-28.7; p = 0.01), and a history of intravenous drug use (IVDU) (HR 2.80; 95 % CI 1.02-7.65; p = 0.05); African-American race was associated with decreased risk of recurrent SSTI (HR 0.12; 95 % CI 0.04-0.41; p < 0.01). Some evidence was present for HIV viral load ≥ 1000 copies/mL as an independent risk factor for recurrent SSTI (HR 2.21; 95 % CI 0.99-4.94; p = 0.05). Hemodialysis, currently taking HAART, CD4+ count, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole or azithromycin use, initial SSTI type, diabetes mellitus, incision and drainage of the original SSTI, or self-report of being a man who has sex with men were not

  11. Patient-Related Risk Factors for Recurrence After Inguinal Hernia Repair

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Jakob; Pommergaard, Hans-Christian; Bisgaard, Thue

    2015-01-01

    patient demographics, hernia characteristics, connective tissue composition and degradation, habits and social relations, and conditions related to inguinal hernia recurrence. Results. From a total of 5061 records screened, we included 40 observational studies enrolling 720 651 inguinal hernia procedures...

  12. Mortality and recurrence rates among systemically untreated high risk breast cancer patients included in the DBCG 77 trials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Maj Britt; Nielsen, Torsten O.; Knoop, Ann S.

    2018-01-01

    Background: Following loco-regional treatment for early breast cancer accurate prognostication is essential for communicating benefits of systemic treatment. The aim of this study was to determine time to recurrence and long-term mortality rates in high risk patients according to patient characte......Background: Following loco-regional treatment for early breast cancer accurate prognostication is essential for communicating benefits of systemic treatment. The aim of this study was to determine time to recurrence and long-term mortality rates in high risk patients according to patient...... and EGFR positive. Multivariate categorical and fractional polynomials (MFP) models were used to construct prognostic subsets by clinicopathologic characteristics. Results: In a multivariate model, mortality rate was significantly associated with age, tumor size, nodal status, invasion, histological type...

  13. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  14. Young women, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and human papillomavirus: risk factors for persistence and recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frega, Antonio; Stentella, Patrizia; De Ioris, Andrea; Piazze, Juan Josè; Fambrini, Massimiliano; Marchionni, Mauro; Cosmi, Ermelando Vinicio

    2003-07-10

    Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is one of the most common sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in young women. They can occur in one or multiple areas of the female genitalia. Usually, the vulva is the initial site of implantation for HPV. The purpose of our study is to evaluate the epidemiological aspects, incidence of single or multiple lesions in the lower genital tract, correlation between sexual behaviour and their localization and behaviour risk factors for persistence and recurrence of HPV lesions and cervical intraepithelial lesion (CIN) in a long-term follow-up among young women. We recruited 268 patients aged 11-21 years who previously had cytology and/or physical examination suspicious for HPV infection. The women were interviewed and asked information about lifestyle, sexual behaviour, work, personal or family history of genital warts and school attendance. We considered individuals to be 'smokers' if they smoked more than five cigarettes/day. No specific data were recorded about oral contraception, nevertheless, no woman had used oral contraceptives (OCs) for more than 2 years. Young women included in the study were between the age of 12 and 21 years who had HVP lesions after entry examinations and had undergone no treatment for HPV lesions prior to entry. Other exclusion criteria relevant to this study included cervical excisional treatment prior to entry or later. Two hundred and thirty-four young women were included in our study group. Our diagnostic schedule for a complete evaluation included exo- and endocervical cytology, colposcopy, directed biopsy and microcolpohysteroscopy. The treatment was performed with a LASER CO2 Coherent 400, model 451, with Zeiss photocolposcopy attachment. The finding that, among 126/234 (53.8%) adolescents using contraceptives, only 85 (36.3%) have used condom, the only barrier form of contraceptive effectively protecting against virus, shows a low awareness of the high risk for contracting HPV infection among

  15. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  16. Dose Assessment of Phosphorus-32 (32P for the Treatment of Recurrent Pterygium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Nazempoor

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Pterygium is a wing-shaped, vascular, fleshy growth that originates from the conjunctiva and can spread into the corneal limbus and beyond. Beta irradiation after bare sclera surgery of primary pterygium is a simple, effective, and safe treatment, which reduces the risk of local recurrence. Materials and Methods Dosimetric components of strontium-90 (90Sr, phosphorous-32 (32P, and ruthenium-106 (106Ru, in form of ophthalmic applicators, were evaluated, using the Monte Carlo method. Results The obtained results indicated that 32P applicator could deliver higher doses (about 10 Gy to a target, located within a close distance from the surface, compared to 90Sr and 106Ru; it also delivered a lower dose to normal tissues. Conclusion The risk of pterygium has increased given the geographical location and climate of Iran. Spread of dust in the country over the past few years has also contributed to the rising rate of this condition. Our results showed that using 32P applicator is a cost-effective method for pterygium treatment.

  17. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  18. Energy and environment: Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, U.

    1993-01-01

    Two problems connected to the concept of 'risk' were analyzed: nuclear power production and global climate changes. In fact, nuclear power, despite of the risk management of the plants, does not produce gaseous emissions and can be used to reduce environmental risks. Even if a cost benefit analysis of nuclear power is very difficult, to perform it is author's opinion that, very probably, industrial countries will continue to use this form of energy

  19. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  20. Time from first detectable PSA following radical prostatectomy to biochemical recurrence: A competing risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boo, Leonora; Pintilie, Melania; Yip, Paul; Baniel, Jack; Fleshner, Neil; Margel, David

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: In this study, we estimated the time from first detectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) following radical prostatectomy (RP) to commonly used definitions of biochemical recurrence (BCR). We also identified the predictors of time to BCR. Methods: We identified subjects who underwent a RP and had an undetectable PSA after surgery followed by at least 1 detectable PSA between 2000 and 2011. The primary outcome was time to BCR (PSA ≥0.2 and successive PSA ≥0.2) and prediction of the rate of PSA rise. Outcomes were calculated using a competing risk analysis, with univariable and multivariable Fine and Grey models. We employed a mixed effect model to test clinical predictors that are associated with the rate of PSA rise. Results: The cohort included 376 patients. The median follow-up from surgery was 60.5 months (interquartile range [IQR] 40.8–91.5) and from detectable PSA was 18 months (IQR 11–32). Only 45.74% (n = 172) had PSA values ≥0.2 ng/mL, while 15.16% (n = 57) reached the PSA level of ≥0.4 ng/mL and rising. On multivariable analysis, the values of the first detectable PSA and pathologic Gleason grade 8 or higher were consistently independent predictors of time to BCR. In the mixed effect model rate, the PSA rise was associated with time from surgery to first detectable PSA, Gleason score, and prostate volume. The main limitation of this study is the large proportion of patients that received treatment without reaching BCR. It is plausible that shorter estimated median times would occur at a centre that does not use salvage therapy at such an early state. Conclusion: The time from first detectable PSA to BCR may be lengthy. Our analyses of the predictors of the rate of PSA rise can help determine a personalized approach for patients with a detectable PSA after surgery. PMID:25624961

  1. Artificial neural network and falls in community-dwellers: a new approach to identify the risk of recurrent falling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabeshova, Anastasiia; Launay, Cyrille P; Gromov, Vasilii A; Annweiler, Cédric; Fantino, Bruno; Beauchet, Olivier

    2015-04-01

    Identification of the risk of recurrent falls is complex in older adults. The aim of this study was to examine the efficiency of 3 artificial neural networks (ANNs: multilayer perceptron [MLP], modified MLP, and neuroevolution of augmenting topologies [NEAT]) for the classification of recurrent fallers and nonrecurrent fallers using a set of clinical characteristics corresponding to risk factors of falls measured among community-dwelling older adults. Based on a cross-sectional design, 3289 community-dwelling volunteers aged 65 and older were recruited. Age, gender, body mass index (BMI), number of drugs daily taken, use of psychoactive drugs, diphosphonate, calcium, vitamin D supplements and walking aid, fear of falling, distance vision score, Timed Up and Go (TUG) score, lower-limb proprioception, handgrip strength, depressive symptoms, cognitive disorders, and history of falls were recorded. Participants were separated into 2 groups based on the number of falls that occurred over the past year: 0 or 1 fall and 2 or more falls. In addition, total population was separated into training and testing subgroups for ANN analysis. Among 3289 participants, 18.9% (n = 622) were recurrent fallers. NEAT, using 15 clinical characteristics (ie, use of walking aid, fear of falling, use of calcium, depression, use of vitamin D supplements, female, cognitive disorders, BMI 4, vision score 9 seconds, handgrip strength score ≤29 (N), and age ≥75 years), showed the best efficiency for identification of recurrent fallers, sensitivity (80.42%), specificity (92.54%), positive predictive value (84.38), negative predictive value (90.34), accuracy (88.39), and Cohen κ (0.74), compared with MLP and modified MLP. NEAT, using a set of 15 clinical characteristics, was an efficient ANN for the identification of recurrent fallers in older community-dwellers. Copyright © 2015 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. The value of f-18 FDG PET /CT in the assessment of recurrent ovarian cancer after cytoreductive surgery and chemotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hae Won; Zeon, Seok Kil; Won, Kyoung Sook

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy and clinical impact of integrated positron emission tomography (PET) and computed tomography (CT) for detection of recurrent ovarian carcinoma after cytoreductive surgery and chemotherapy. Medical records of 39 patients (age, 54.912.6 years) with previously treated ovarian cancer who underwent integrated PET/CT between April 1, 2007 and June 30, 2007 were reviewed retrospectively. F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET/CT was performed for the evaluation of suspected recurrence. Imaging findings were compared with results of histological examination after surgical exploration or clinical follow-up to determine the diagnostic accuracy of PET/CT in the evaluation of disease status. The clinical impact of information provided by PET/CT on patient management was assessed on the basis of clinical follow up data concerning further diagnostic or therapeutic approach. Sixteen of the 39 patients had documented recurrence during surgical exploration or clinical follow-up. Of the 16 patients with recurrence, 14 patients showed suspected lesions on PET/CT. Twenty-three of the 39 patients had no evidence of recurrent tumor during surgical exploration or clinical follow-up, and two of the 23 patients with no recurrent tumor showed suspected lesions on PET/CT. The overall sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of PET/CT were 87.5 %, 91.3 %, 89.7 %, 87.5 % and 91.3 %, respectively. PET/CT modified the diagnostic or treatment plan in 15 (38.4 %) patients, by leading to the use of previously unplanned therapeutic procedures in 10 (66.7 %) patients and the avoidance of previously planned diagnostic procedures in 5 (33.3 %) patients. Integrated FDG PET/CT has high sensitivity and specificity in the detection of recurrent ovarian cancer. Thus, it is likely to play a significant role in management of recurrent ovarian cancer

  3. Impact of Metabolic Diseases, Drugs, and Dietary Factors on Prostate Cancer Risk, Recurrence, and Survival: A Systematic Review by the European Association of Urology Section of Oncological Urology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campi, Riccardo; Brookman-May, Sabine D; Subiela Henríquez, Jose Daniel; Akdoğan, Bülent; Brausi, Maurizio; Klatte, Tobias; Langenhuijsen, Johan F; Linares-Espinos, Estefania; Marszalek, Martin; Roupret, Morgan; Stief, Christian G; Volpe, Alessandro; Minervini, Andrea; Rodriguez-Faba, Oscar

    2018-04-13

    To date, established risk factors for prostate cancer (PCa) are limited to age, race, family history, and certain genetic polymorphisms. Despite great research efforts, available evidence on potentially modifiable risk factors is conflicting. Moreover, most studies on PCa risk factors did not consider the impact of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing on PCa diagnosis. To provide a detailed overview of the latest evidence on the role of metabolic diseases, drugs, and dietary factors for risk of PCa incidence, recurrence, and survival in men exposed to PSA testing. A systematic review of the English-language literature was performed using the MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Web of Science databases according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses recommendations. Randomized, case-control, or cohort studies published during the periods 2008-2017 (on drugs and metabolic diseases) and 2003-2017 (on dietary factors), with extensive follow-up (≥8-10yr for studies on PCa risk; ≥2-5yr for studies on PCa recurrence, progression, and survival, depending on the review subtopic) and adjusting of the analyses, beyond established risk factors, for either rate of PSA testing (for risk analyses) or PCa stage and primary treatment (for survival analyses), were eligible for inclusion. Overall, 39 reports from 22 observational studies were included. Studies were heterogeneous regarding definitions of exposure or outcomes, length of follow-up, risk of bias, and confounding. For some risk factors, evidence was insufficient to assess potential effects, while for others there was no evidence of an effect. For selected risk factors, namely metformin, aspirin and statin use, diabetes, obesity, and specific dietary intakes, there was low-quality evidence of modest effects on PCa risk. Current evidence from long-term observational studies evaluating the effect of drugs, metabolic diseases, and dietary factors for PCa risk

  4. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  5. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  6. Therapeutic effect of radiofrequency ablation on children with supraventricular tachycardia and the risk factors for postoperative recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chunli; Jia, Libo; Wang, Zhenzhou; Niu, Ling; An, Xinjiang

    2018-05-01

    The present study investigated the therapeutic effect of radiofrequency ablation on children with supraventricular tachycardia (SVT), and explored the risk factors for postoperative recurrence. A total of 312 patients with pediatric SVT were selected in the Affiliated Children's Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from April, 2011 to March, 2017. All the patients were subjected to radiofrequency ablation, and clinical data were retrospectively analyzed. Tilt table test was performed before and after treatment, and heart rate, systolic and diastolic blood pressure before and after treatment were compared. Plasma levels of D-dimer (D-D), platelet α-granule membrane protein (GMP-140) and thrombin-antithrombin III complex (TAT) were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay before treatment, immediately after radiofrequency oblation, and at 1, 3 and 7 days after treatment. Treatment outcomes were compared between the atrioventricular reentrant tachycardia (AVRT) and atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia (AVNRT) groups. Risk factors for postoperative recurrence were analyzed. Supine position heart rate after treatment was not significantly different from that before treatment (P>0.05), while the upright position heart rate was significantly increased after treatment (P0.05). No significant difference in radiofrequency ablation rate, recurrence rate and incidence of complications were found between the AVRT and AVNRT groups (P>0.05). After radiofrequency, the levels of D-D, GMP-140 and TAT ablation showed an upward trend, but decreased at day 7 to reach preoperative levels. Logistic regression analysis revealed that residual slow pathway (OR=6.718, P=0.005) and inaccurate targeting (OR=2.815, P=0.007) were independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence (Pradiofrequency ablation can damage the cardiac vagal nerve, resulting in an increase in the heart rate after ablation during the course of the tilt table test and changed hemagglutination state

  7. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  8. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  9. Different mosaicism frequencies for proximal and distal Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) mutations indicate difference in etiology and recurrence risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Passos-Bueno, M.R.; Takata, R.I.; Rapaport, D.; Bakker, E.; Kneppers, A.L.J.; Dunnen, J.T. den; Ommen, J.B. van

    1992-11-01

    In about 65% of the cases of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) a partial gene deletion or duplication in the dystrophin gene can be detected. These mutations are clustered at two hot spots: 30% at the hot spot in the proximal part of the gene and about 70% at a more distal hot spot. Unexpectedly the authors observed a higher frequency of proximal gene rearrangements among proved germ line' mosaic cases. Of the 24 mosaic cases they are aware of, 19 (79%) have a proximal mutation, while only 5 (21%) have a distal mutation. This finding indicates that the mutations at the two hot spots in the dystrophin gene differ in origin. Independent support for the different mosaicism frequency was found by comparing the mutation spectra observed in isolated cases of DMD and familial cases (ratio 1:1). The authors conclude from these data that proximal deletions most likely occur early in embryonic development, causing them to have a higher chance of becoming familial, while distal deletions occur later and have a higher chance of causing only isolated cases. Finally, the findings have important consequences for the calculation of recurrence-risk estimates according to the site of the deletion: a [open quote]proximal[close quote] new mutant has an increased recurrence risk of approximately 30%, and a [open quote]distal[close quote] new mutant has a decreased recurrence risk of approximately 4%. 28 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs.

  10. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  11. Risk factors and prognosis of intravesical recurrence after surgical management of upper tract urothelial carcinoma: A 30-year single centre experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Mohamed Elawdy

    2017-09-01

    Conclusions: In our present series, bladder cancer recurrence of urothelial malignancy occurred in nearly half of the patients after surgical management of UTUC. Ureteric tumour was the only identifiable risk factor, thus patients with ureteric tumours may benefit from prophylactic intravesical chemoimmunotherapy. Bladder recurrence does not appear to affect the cancer-specific survival after surgical management of UTUC.

  12. Risk of recurrent acute lower urinary tract infections and prescription pattern of antibiotics in women with and without diabetes in primary care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gorter, Kees J.; Hak, Eelko; Zuithoff, Nicolaas P. A.; Hoepelman, Andy I. M.; Rutten, Guy E. H. M.

    Aim. To investigate diabetes characteristics associated with the risk of recurrent lower UTIs and the antibiotic prescription pattern. Methods. In an exploratory retrospective study involving 7063 women aged >= 30 years, we studied the incidence of recurrent UTI (relapses and reinfection) in women

  13. Local Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Segmental Transarterial Chemoembolization: Risk Estimates Based on Multiple Prognostic Factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Seung Hyun; Cho, Yun Ku; Ahn, Yong Sik; Park, Yoon Ok; Kim, Jae Kyun; Chung, Jin Wook

    2007-01-01

    To determine the prognostic factors for local recurrence of nodular hepatocellular carcinoma after segmental transarterial chemoembolization. Seventy-four nodular hepatocellular carcinoma tumors ≤5 cm were retrospectively analyzed for local recurrence after segmental transarterial chemoembolization using follow-up CT images (median follow-up of 17 months, 4 77 months in range). The tumors were divided into four groups (IA, IB, IIA, and IIB) according to whether the one-month follow-up CT imaging, after segmental transarterial chemoembolization, showed homogeneous (Group I) or inhomogeneous (Group II) iodized oil accumulation, or whether the tumors were located within the liver segment (Group A) or in a segmental border zone (Group B). Comparison of tumor characteristics between Group IA and the other three groups was performed using the chi-square test. Local recurrence rates were compared among the groups using the Kaplan-Meier estimation and log rank test. Local tumor recurrence occurred in 19 hepatocellular carcinoma tumors (25.7%). There were: 28, 18, 17, and 11 tumors in Group IA, IB, IIA, and IIB, respectively. One of 28 (3.6%) tumors in Group IA, and 18 of 46 (39.1%) tumors in the other three groups showed local recurrence. Comparisons between Group IA and the other three groups showed that the tumor characteristics were similar. One-, two-, and three-year estimated local recurrence rates in Group IA were 0%, 11.1%, and 11.1%, respectively. The difference between Group IA and the other three groups was statistically significant (p 0.000). An acceptably low rate of local recurrence was observed for small or intermediate nodular tumors located within the liver segment with homogeneous iodized oil accumulation

  14. A population-based validation study of the DCIS Score predicting recurrence risk in individuals treated by breast-conserving surgery alone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovitch, Eileen; Nofech-Mozes, Sharon; Hanna, Wedad; Baehner, Frederick L; Saskin, Refik; Butler, Steven M; Tuck, Alan; Sengupta, Sandip; Elavathil, Leela; Jani, Prashant A; Bonin, Michel; Chang, Martin C; Robertson, Susan J; Slodkowska, Elzbieta; Fong, Cindy; Anderson, Joseph M; Jamshidian, Farid; Miller, Dave P; Cherbavaz, Diana B; Shak, Steven; Paszat, Lawrence

    2015-07-01

    Validated biomarkers are needed to improve risk assessment and treatment decision-making for women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast. The Oncotype DX DCIS Score (DS) was shown to predict the risk of local recurrence (LR) in individuals with low-risk DCIS treated by breast-conserving surgery (BCS) alone. Our objective was to confirm these results in a larger population-based cohort of individuals. We used an established population-based cohort of individuals diagnosed with DCIS treated with BCS alone from 1994 to 2003 with validation of treatment and outcomes. Central pathology assessment excluded cases with invasive cancer, DCIS < 2 mm or positive margins. Cox model was used to determine the relationship between independent covariates, the DS (hazard ratio (HR)/50 Cp units (U)) and LR. Tumor blocks were collected for 828 patients. Final evaluable population includes 718 cases, of whom 571 had negative margins. Median follow-up was 9.6 years. 100 cases developed LR following BCS alone (DCIS, N = 44; invasive, N = 57). In the primary pre-specified analysis, the DS was associated with any LR (DCIS or invasive) in ER+ patients (HR 2.26; P < 0.001) and in all patients regardless of ER status (HR 2.15; P < 0.001). DCIS Score provided independent information on LR risk beyond clinical and pathologic variables including size, age, grade, necrosis, multifocality, and subtype (adjusted HR 1.68; P = 0.02). DCIS was associated with invasive LR (HR 1.78; P = 0.04) and DCIS LR (HR 2.43; P = 0.005). The DCIS Score independently predicts and quantifies individualized recurrence risk in a population of patients with pure DCIS treated by BCS alone.

  15. Multiplex biomarker approach for determining risk of prostate-specific antigen-defined recurrence of prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Daniel R; Sanda, Martin G; Otte, Arie P; Chinnaiyan, Arul M; Rubin, Mark A

    2003-05-07

    Molecular signatures in cancer tissue may be useful for diagnosis and are associated with survival. We used results from high-density tissue microarrays (TMAs) to define combinations of candidate biomarkers associated with the rate of prostate cancer progression after radical prostatectomy that could identify patients at high risk for recurrence. Fourteen candidate biomarkers for prostate cancer for which antibodies are available included hepsin, pim-1 kinase, E-cadherin (ECAD; cell adhesion molecule), alpha-methylacyl-coenzyme A racemase, and EZH2 (enhancer of zeste homolog 2, a transcriptional repressor). TMAs containing more than 2000 tumor samples from 259 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy for localized prostate cancer were studied with these antibodies. Immunohistochemistry results were evaluated in conjunction with clinical parameters associated with prostate cancer progression, including tumor stage, Gleason score, and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level. Recurrence was defined as a postsurgery PSA level of more than 0.2 ng/mL. All statistical tests were two-sided. Moderate or strong expression of EZH2 coupled with at most moderate expression of ECAD (i.e., a positive EZH2:ECAD status) was the biomarker combination that was most strongly associated with the recurrence of prostate cancer. EZH2:ECAD status was statistically significantly associated with prostate cancer recurrence in a training set of 103 patients (relative risk [RR] = 2.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09 to 5.81; P =.021), in a validation set of 80 patients (RR = 3.72, 95% CI = 1.27 to 10.91; P =.009), and in the combined set of 183 patients (RR = 2.96, 95% CI = 1.56 to 5.61; P<.001). EZH2:ECAD status was statistically significantly associated with disease recurrence even after adjusting for clinical parameters, such as tumor stage, Gleason score, and PSA level (hazard ratio = 3.19, 95% CI = 1.50 to 6.77; P =.003). EZH2:ECAD status was statistically significantly associated

  16. Excessive Premature Atrial Complexes and the Risk of Recurrent Stroke or Death in an Ischemic Stroke Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinther, Kristina H; Tveskov, Claus; Möller, Sören; Auscher, Soren; Osmanagic, Armin; Egstrup, Kenneth

    2017-06-01

    Our aim was to investigate the association of premature atrial complexes and the risk of recurrent stroke or death in patients with ischemic stroke in sinus rhythm. In a prospective cohort study, we used 24-hour Holter recordings to evaluate premature atrial complexes in patients consecutively admitted with ischemic strokes. Excessive premature atrial complexes were defined as >14 premature atrial complexes per hour and 3 or more runs of premature atrial complexes per 24 hours. During follow-up, 48-hour Holter recordings were performed after 6 and 12 months. Among patients in sinus rhythm, the association of excessive premature atrial complexes and the primary end point of recurrent stroke or death were estimated in both crude and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. We further evaluated excessive premature atrial complexes contra atrial fibrillation in relation to the primary end point. Of the 256 patients included, 89 had atrial fibrillation. Of the patients in sinus rhythm (n = 167), 31 had excessive premature atrial complexes. During a median follow-up of 32 months, 50 patients (30% of patients in sinus rhythm) had recurrent strokes (n = 20) or died (n = 30). In both crude and adjusted models, excessive premature atrial complexes were associated with the primary end point, but not with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation. Compared with patients in atrial fibrillation, those with excessive premature atrial complexes had similarly high risks of the primary end point. In patients with ischemic stroke and sinus rhythm, excessive premature atrial complexes were associated with a higher risk of recurrent stroke or death. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Evaluation of the cranial base in amnion rupture sequence involving the anterior neural tube: implications regarding recurrence risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Kenneth Lyons; Robinson, Luther K; Benirschke, Kurt

    2006-09-01

    Amniotic bands can cause disruption of the cranial end of the developing fetus, leading in some cases to a neural tube closure defect. Although recurrence for unaffected parents of an affected child with a defect in which the neural tube closed normally but was subsequently disrupted by amniotic bands is negligible; for a primary defect in closure of the neural tube to which amnion has subsequently adhered, recurrence risk is 1.7%. In that primary defects of neural tube closure are characterized by typical abnormalities of the base of the skull, evaluation of the cranial base in such fetuses provides an approach for making a distinction between these 2 mechanisms. This distinction has implications regarding recurrence risk. The skull base of 2 fetuses with amnion rupture sequence involving the cranial end of the neural tube were compared to that of 1 fetus with anencephaly as well as that of a structurally normal fetus. The skulls were cleaned, fixed in 10% formalin, recleaned, and then exposed to 10% KOH solution. After washing and recleaning, the skulls were exposed to hydrogen peroxide for bleaching and photography. Despite involvement of the anterior neural tube in both fetuses with amnion rupture sequence, in Case 3 the cranial base was normal while in Case 4 the cranial base was similar to that seen in anencephaly. This technique provides a method for determining the developmental pathogenesis of anterior neural tube defects in cases of amnion rupture sequence. As such, it provides information that can be used to counsel parents of affected children with respect to recurrence risk.

  18. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Voss, T.; Wang, H.; Pieprzyk, J.; Varadharajan, V.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is

  19. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  20. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  1. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  2. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  3. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  4. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  5. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  6. Risk of recurrence after a single manic or mixed episode - a systematic review and meta-analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kessing, Lars Vedel; Andersen, Per Kragh; Vinberg, Maj

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: For the first time to estimate the risk of recurrence among patients with a single manic/mixed episode by systematically reviewing prior studies on cohorts of adults, and cohorts of children and adolescents, respectively. METHODS: A systematic literature search up to August 2017...... was carried out including studies in which mixed episode at inclusion. RESULTS: Three studies including a total of 293 adult patients with a single manic or mixed episode...... as children and adolescents. It is important that clinicians and patients as well as relatives are well informed about these high risks when deciding to start maintenance treatment or not following onset of a single manic or mixed episode....

  7. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of th