Distribution Locational Real-Time Pricing Based Smart Building Control and Management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hao, Jun; Dai, Xiaoxiao; Zhang, Yingchen; Zhang, Jun; Gao, Wenzhong

2016-11-21

This paper proposes an real-virtual parallel computing scheme for smart building operations aiming at augmenting overall social welfare. The University of Denver's campus power grid and Ritchie fitness center is used for demonstrating the proposed approach. An artificial virtual system is built in parallel to the real physical system to evaluate the overall social cost of the building operation based on the social science based working productivity model, numerical experiment based building energy consumption model and the power system based real-time pricing mechanism. Through interactive feedback exchanged between the real and virtual system, enlarged social welfare, including monetary cost reduction and energy saving, as well as working productivity improvements, can be achieved.

Evaluating the Impacts of Real-Time Pricing on the Cost and Value of Wind Generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siohansi, Ramteen

2010-01-01

One of the costs associated with integrating wind generation into a power system is the cost of redispatching the system in real-time due to day-ahead wind resource forecast errors. One possible way of reducing these redispatch costs is to introduce demand response in the form of real-time pricing (RTP), which could allow electricity demand to respond to actual real-time wind resource availability using price signals. A day-ahead unit commitment model with day-ahead wind forecasts and a real-time dispatch model with actual wind resource availability is used to estimate system operations in a high wind penetration scenario. System operations are compared to a perfect foresight benchmark, in which actual wind resource availability is known day-ahead. The results show that wind integration costs with fixed demands can be high, both due to real-time redispatch costs and lost load. It is demonstrated that introducing RTP can reduce redispatch costs and eliminate loss of load events. Finally, social surplus with wind generation and RTP is compared to a system with neither and the results demonstrate that introducing wind and RTP into a market can result in superadditive surplus gains.

A Probabilistic Approach to Control of Complex Systems and Its Application to Real-Time Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Koichi Kobayashi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Control of complex systems is one of the fundamental problems in control theory. In this paper, a control method for complex systems modeled by a probabilistic Boolean network (PBN is studied. A PBN is widely used as a model of complex systems such as gene regulatory networks. For a PBN, the structural control problem is newly formulated. In this problem, a discrete probability distribution appeared in a PBN is controlled by the continuous-valued input. For this problem, an approximate solution method using a matrix-based representation for a PBN is proposed. Then, the problem is approximated by a linear programming problem. Furthermore, the proposed method is applied to design of real-time pricing systems of electricity. Electricity conservation is achieved by appropriately determining the electricity price over time. The effectiveness of the proposed method is presented by a numerical example on real-time pricing systems.

Real time pricing as a component of least-cost power strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caramanis, M.C.; Tabors, R.D.; Daryanian, B.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on Real Time Pricing (RTP) that is an electricity rate which varies with time in order to reflect the electric utility's time varying costs of generation, transmission, and distribution. Because RTP improves the economic efficiency of overall operation of the electric system, it can provide benefits to both the utility and the customers. It is a strategic tool which provides customers with the same type of cost and load management signals that are provided to the electric supply system. It is a critical element in economically efficient least-cost strategies because it provides the customer with symmetric signals that encourage both reduction in consumption (high prices) and also increases in consumption (low prices). This characteristic of symmetry makes it a unique method relative to others in the field of conservation and load management because RTP can be used to dispatch the customers; load, not merely turn it off when and if required by the utility. In the process of developing and implementing least-cost strategies, RTP can provide significant incremental benefits to existing demand-side as well as supply-side programs

Comparison of control systems for the optimisation of ice storage in a dynamic real time electricity pricing environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, M.D.; O’Mahony, M.J.; Upton, J.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A cold thermal energy storage system model was created and validated. • Pseudo real time electricity pricing was derived to represent the smart grid. • A demand side management optimisation algorithm was developed. • Demand side management algorithm performance was compared to a standard controller. • Overall the demand side management algorithm produced modest cost savings. - Abstract: The objective of this study was to assess the benefits of introducing a demand side management optimisation controller to a cold thermal storage ice bank. This controller consisted of an ice bank model, an air temperature forecast model and an optimisation algorithm. The financial and grid utilisation benefits produced by implementation of this controller over the current state of the art in ice bank load shifting control was tested in a day ahead real time electricity pricing forecast environment. This hypothetical real time electricity price was based on the cost of electricity in the Irish wholesale market. Multiple ice bank charge levels were simulated in order to quantify the performance of two control methods for varying operating conditions. First, the “standard controller” was based on the current modus operandi for ice bank systems where ice was generated for food cooling at night when the off-peak electricity tariff is available (00:00–08:00 h). Second, the “upgraded controller” was developed as a bespoke Demand Side Management control system for food refrigeration in a future electricity pricing environment. It consisted of a dual function load shifting optimisation algorithm, an ice bank model, and a predictive air temperature model. A preliminary study was also carried out to test the robustness of the controller’s performance in an uncertain real time electricity pricing forecast scenario. Both economic and grid management benefits were found by simulating the operation of the cold thermal storage load shifting controller in a

Optimal Energy Management for the Integrated Power and Gas Systems via Real-time Pricing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shu, KangAn; Ai, Xiaomeng; Wen, Jinyu

2018-01-01

This work proposed a bi-level formulation for energy management in the integrated power and natural gas system via real-time price signals. The upper-level problem minimizes the operational cost, in which dynamic electricity price and dynamic gas tariff are proposed. The lower level problem...... and P2Gs plants follow the system operator’s preferences such as wind power accommodation, mitigation of unsupplied load and relieving the network congestion....

Real-Time Pricing in the Nordic Power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kopsakangas Savolainen, Maria; Svento, Rauli

2012-01-01

In this paper we study the potential effects of Real-Time Pricing (RTP) of electricity on the need for long-run capacities in the Nordic Power markets. A characteristic of the Nordic Power market is the large variety of production technologies, of which hydro and nuclear power are capacity constrained. We analyze the impact of RTP on: the need for total, peak and midmerit capacities; total demand; prices; peak demand hours; and economic welfare. We have also studied whether the results of RTP are sensitive to the simultaneous implementation of tradable emission permits. We find that RTP diminishes the need for total capacity even with inelastic demand. Our results show that even with modest assumptions related to RTP participation, the annual midmerit and peaker capacity efficiency savings amount to 97 million Euros, which are around 6% of their total annual investment costs. The price of the peak demand hour clearly diminishes as the share of the RTP customers increases or demand becomes more price elastic. We compare RTP and tradable emission permits as two separate instruments in reaching energy use efficiencies and show how these two instruments must be seen as complementary and not as substitutable instruments. We show how RTP and tradable emission permits have a positive correlation in promoting market access of renewable energy sources. We find that welfare effects of the implementation of RTP are positive. - Highlights: ► RTP diminishes the need for total capacity even with inelastic demand. ► The capacity efficiency savings are around 6% of their annual investment costs. ► RTP and ETS should be seen as complementary and not as substitutable instruments. ► RTP and ETS have a positive correlation in promoting market access of renewables. ► Welfare effects of the implementation of RTP are positive.

The effects of residential real-time pricing contracts on transco loads, pricing, and profitability: Simulations using the N-ABLE trademark agent-based model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehlen, Mark A.; Scholand, Andrew J.; Stamber, Kevin L.

2007-01-01

An agent-based model is constructed in which a demand aggregator sells both uniform-price and real-time price (RTP) contracts to households as means for adding price elasticity in residential power use sectors, particularly during peak-price hours of the day. Simulations suggest that RTP contracts help a demand aggregator (1) shift its long-term contracts toward off-peak hours, thereby reducing its cost of power and (2) increase its short-run profits if it is one of the first aggregators to have large numbers of RTP contracts; but (3) create susceptibilities to short-term market demand and price volatilities. (author)

Aggregate modeling of fast-acting demand response and control under real-time pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chassin, David P.; Rondeau, Daniel

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Demand elasticity for fast-acting demand response load under real-time pricing. • Validated first-principles logistic demand curve matches random utility model. • Logistic demand curve suitable for diversified aggregate loads market-based transactive control systems. - Abstract: This paper develops and assesses the performance of a short-term demand response (DR) model for utility load control with applications to resource planning and control design. Long term response models tend to underestimate short-term demand response when induced by prices. This has two important consequences. First, planning studies tend to undervalue DR and often overlook its benefits in utility demand management program development. Second, when DR is not overlooked, the open-loop DR control gain estimate may be too low. This can result in overuse of load resources, control instability and excessive price volatility. Our objective is therefore to develop a more accurate and better performing short-term demand response model. We construct the model from first principles about the nature of thermostatic load control and show that the resulting formulation corresponds exactly to the Random Utility Model employed in economics to study consumer choice. The model is tested against empirical data collected from field demonstration projects and is shown to perform better than alternative models commonly used to forecast demand in normal operating conditions. The results suggest that (1) existing utility tariffs appear to be inadequate to incentivize demand response, particularly in the presence of high renewables, and (2) existing load control systems run the risk of becoming unstable if utilities close the loop on real-time prices.

On Nonlinear Prices in Timed Automata

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Devendra Bhave

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Priced timed automata provide a natural model for quantitative analysis of real-time systems and have been successfully applied in various scheduling and planning problems. The optimal reachability problem for linearly-priced timed automata is known to be PSPACE-complete. In this paper we investigate priced timed automata with more general prices and show that in the most general setting the optimal reachability problem is undecidable. We adapt and implement the construction of Audemard, Cimatti, Kornilowicz, and Sebastiani for non-linear priced timed automata using state-of-the-art theorem prover Z3 and present some preliminary results.

AEP Ohio gridSMART Demonstration Project Real-Time Pricing Demonstration Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Widergren, Steven E.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Fuller, Jason C.; Chassin, David P.; Somani, Abhishek; Marinovici, Maria C.; Hammerstrom, Janelle L.

2014-02-01

This report contributes initial findings from an analysis of significant aspects of the gridSMART® Real-Time Pricing (RTP) – Double Auction demonstration project. Over the course of four years, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) worked with American Electric Power (AEP), Ohio and Battelle Memorial Institute to design, build, and operate an innovative system to engage residential consumers and their end-use resources in a participatory approach to electric system operations, an incentive-based approach that has the promise of providing greater efficiency under normal operating conditions and greater flexibility to react under situations of system stress. The material contained in this report supplements the findings documented by AEP Ohio in the main body of the gridSMART report. It delves into three main areas: impacts on system operations, impacts on households, and observations about the sensitivity of load to price changes.

A survey of utility experience with real time pricing: implications for policymakers seeking price responsive demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Neenan, Bernard

2005-01-01

Economists and policy makers frequently propose real time pricing (RTP) as a strategy for facilitating price responsive demand, thereby improving the performance of electricity markets and regional networks. While theoretically appealing, many practical and empirical issues related to RTP remain unresolved or poorly understood. Over the past two decades, more than 70 utilities in the U.S. have offered voluntary RTP tariffs, on either a pilot or permanent basis. However, most have operated in relative obscurity, and little information has made its way into the public domain. To address this gap, we conducted a conducted a comprehensive review of voluntary RTP programs in the U.S. by surveying 43 U.S. utilities and reviewing regulatory documents, tariffs, program evaluations, and other publicly available sources. Based on this review of RTP program experience, we identify key trends related to utilities' motivations and goals for implementing RTP, evolution of RTP tariff design, program participation, participant price response, and program outlook. Experience with voluntary RTP programs has been mixed. Several utilities have demonstrated that voluntary RTP programs are capable of generating significant load reductions. However, most programs have attracted relatively few participants and therefore have generated quite limited load reductions. About 2700 non-residential customers were enrolled in RTP programs in 2003, representing more than 11 000 MW of load. We then draw from these findings to identify implications for policy makers and regulators that are currently considering RTP as a strategy for facilitating price responsive demand

Real-Time Pricing-Based Scheduling Strategy in Smart Grids: A Hierarchical Game Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jie Yang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a scheduling strategy based on real-time pricing in smart grids. A hierarchical game is employed to analyze the decision-making process of generators and consumers. We prove the existence and uniqueness of Nash equilibrium and utilize a backward induction method to obtain the generation and consumption strategies. Then, we propose two dynamic algorithms for the generators and consumers to search for the equilibrium in a distributed fashion. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheduling strategy can match supply with demand and shift load away from peak time.

Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, C.K.; Moore, J.; Schneiderman, B.; Ho, T.; Olson, A.; Alagappan, L.; Chawla, K.; Toyama, N.; Zarnikau, J.

2016-01-01

We answer two policy questions: (1) what are the estimated merit-order effects of renewable energy in the California Independent System Operator’s (CAISO’s) day-ahead market (DAM) and real-time market (RTM)? and (2) what causes the hourly DAM and RTM prices to systematically diverge? The first question is timely and relevant because if the merit-order effect estimates are small, California’s renewable energy development is of limited help in cutting electricity consumers’ bills but also has a lesser adverse impact on the state’s investment incentive for natural-gas-fired generation. The second question is related to the efficient market hypothesis under which the hourly RTM and DAM prices tend to converge. Using a sample of about 21,000 hourly observations of CAISO market prices and their fundamental drivers during 12/12/2012–04/30/2015, we document statistically significant estimates (p-value≤0.01) for the DAM and RTM merit-order effects. This finding lends support to California’s adopted procurement process to provide sufficient investment incentives for natural-gas-fired generation. We document that the RTM-DAM price divergence partly depends on the CASIO’s day-ahead forecast errors for system loads and renewable energy. This finding suggests that improving the performance of the CAISO’s day-ahead forecasts can enhance trading efficiency in California’s DAM and RTM electricity markets. - Highlights: •Estimate the day-ahead and real-time merit-order effects of renewable energy in California. •Document statistically significant merit-order effects of solar and wind energy. •Document the difference between the day-ahead and real-time prices. •Attribute the price differences to forecast errors for load, solar and wind energy. •Discuss the evidence’s implications for California’s energy policy.

Riding the Electricity Market as an Energy Management Strategy: Savings from Real-Time Pricing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chiles, Thomas [U.S. General Services Administration, Washington, D.C. (United States); Shutika, Kenneth [U.S. General Services Administration, Washington, D.C. (United States); Coleman, Philip [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2018-03-13

Dynamic pricing of electricity, in which retail prices facing customers are responsive to changes in the underlying wholesale markets, represents a step towards economic efficiency in that customers get exposed to some or all of the costs facing wholesale market players. But what do customers who opt for this greater exposure – available in the roughly 15 “de-regulated” states, as well as, to some extent, from some regulated utilities – get in return for their risks? The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) took a retrospective eight-year look at what the savings would have been had they let the loads for which they purchase electricity in the Washington, DC area buy electricity on the real-time pricing (RTP) market – the dynamic pricing option with the highest risk – as opposed to the strategy they chose in actuality, which was fixing flat prices with 3rd-party providers. We found that opting for RTP for the eight years of the study (2005 through 2012) would have resulted in 17% savings, or almost a quarter of a billion dollars, relative to GSA’s actual prices from the 3rd-party suppliers. This is particularly astonishing given that GSA appeared to have timed the market well during the study period, consistently beating the standard offer products provided by the distribution utilities. The issue of budgetary predictability poses an obstacle for customers (especially government ones) considering RTP and, to a lesser extent, other dynamic pricing options. Indeed, GSA would have lost money with RTP in two of the eight years, one of them substantially. But the magnitude of the savings is indisputably compelling and, even if it may be somewhat aberrational due to high congestion in the DC market, begs consideration by large electricity users currently paying to “lock in” fixed flat prices.

Priced Timed Automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Behrmann, Gerd; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Rasmussen, Jacob Illum

2004-01-01

This contribution reports on the considerable effort made recently towards extending and applying well-established timed automata technology to optimal scheduling and planning problems. The effort of the authors in this direction has to a large extent been carried out as part of the European...... projects VHS [22] and AMETIST [17] and are available in the recently released UPPAAL CORA [12], a variant of the real-time verification tool UPPAAL [20,5] specialized for cost-optimal reachability for the extended model of priced timed automata....

On the Trade-off Between Real-time Pricing and the Social Acceptability Costs of Demand Response

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

da Silva, Hendrigo Batista; Santiago, Leonardo

2018-01-01

on the social acceptability costs of implementing demand response programs, and we discuss the key features of implementing a real-time price to energy. Although the literature acknowledges the existence of a social acceptability cost, it does not propose an explicit approach to dealing with this issue. A model...... for investigating the implications of the social acceptability cost is thus introduced and through it, we discuss thoroughly the joint impact of the elasticity and externality parameters on the tariff design of a demand response program. We explore how the increases in elasticity and in externality effects...... influence price changes in such programs and how the social acceptability cost could be reduced as a function of pricing policies. We conclude by discussing the policy design mechanisms in line with demand elasticity and their role in decreasing price variations to cope with the minimum volatility principle...

Comparison of Solar and Wind Power Output and Correlation with Real-Time Pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Hoepfl, Kathryn E.; Compaan, Alvin D.; Solocha, Andrew

2011-03-01

This study presents a method that can be used to determine the least volatile power output of a wind and solar hybrid energy system in which wind and solar systems have the same peak power. Hourly data for wind and PV systems in Northwest Ohio are used to show that a combination of both types of sustainable energy sources produces a more stable power output and would be more valuable to the grid than either individually. This method could be used to determine the ideal ratio in any part of the country and should help convince electric utility companies to bring more renewable generation online. This study also looks at real-time market pricing and how each system (solar, wind, and hybrid) correlates with 2009 hourly pricing from the Midwest Interconnect. KEH acknowledges support from the NSF-REU grant PHY-1004649 to the Univ. of Toledo and Garland Energy Systems/Ohio Department of Development.

Operation Cost Minimization of Droop-Controlled DC Microgrids Based on Real-Time Pricing and Optimal Power Flow

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Chendan; de Bosio, Federico; Chaudhary, Sanjay Kumar

2015-01-01

In this paper, an optimal power flow problem is formulated in order to minimize the total operation cost by considering real-time pricing in DC microgrids. Each generation resource in the system, including the utility grid, is modeled in terms of operation cost, which combines the cost...... problem is solved in a heuristic way by using genetic algorithms. In order to test the proposed algorithm, a six-bus droop-controlled DC microgrid is used as a case-study. The obtained simulation results show that under variable renewable generation, load, and electricity prices, the proposed method can...

Day Ahead Real Time Pricing and Critical Peak Pricing Based Power Scheduling for Smart Homes with Different Duty Cycles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadeem Javaid

2018-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a demand side management (DSM scheme in the residential area for electricity cost and peak to average ratio (PAR alleviation with maximum users’ satisfaction. For this purpose, we implement state-of-the-art algorithms: enhanced differential evolution (EDE and teacher learning-based optimization (TLBO. Furthermore, we propose a hybrid technique (HT having the best features of both aforementioned algorithms. We consider a system model for single smart home as well as for a community (multiple homes and each home consists of multiple appliances with different priorities. The priority is assigned (to each appliance by electricity consumers and then the proposed scheme finds an optimal solution according to the assigned priorities. Day-ahead real time pricing (DA-RTP and critical peak pricing (CPP are used for electricity cost calculation. To validate our proposed scheme, simulations are carried out and results show that our proposed scheme efficiently achieves the aforementioned objectives. However, when we perform a comparison with existing schemes, HT outperforms other state-of-the-art schemes (TLBO and EDE in terms of electricity cost and PAR reduction while minimizing the average waiting time.

Real-Time Pricing Strategy Based on the Stability of Smart Grid for Green Internet of Things

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huwei Chen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The ever increasing demand of energy efficiency and the strong awareness of environment have led to the enhanced interests in green Internet of things (IoTs. How to efficiently deliver power, especially, with the smart grid based on the stability of network becomes a challenge for green IoTs. Therefore, in this paper we present a novel real-time pricing strategy based on the network stability in the green IoTs enabled smart grid. Firstly, the outage is analyzed by considering the imbalance of power supply and demand as well as the load uncertainty. Secondly, the problem of power supply with multiple-retailers is formulated as a Stackelberg game, where the optimal price can be obtained with the maximal profit for retailers and users. Thirdly, the stability of price is analyzed under the constraints. In addition, simulation results show the efficiency of the proposed strategy.

STOCK PRICES, 1900-1995: THE REAL AND NOMINAL STORY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenneth Weiher

2000-01-01

Full Text Available Prompted by the inflation-adjusted Dow Jones Industrials Average setting its first record high in almost thirty years in 1995, this paper studies the impact of inflation on nominal and real stock prices from a theoretical, historical, and empirical perspective. While stocks are an excellent longterm hedge against inflation, nominal stock prices stagnate and real stock prices fall during a period of rapid inflation. Both nominal and real stockprices then go through a catch-up phase during the subsequent disinflation period. The history for this century is consistent with this pattern. Regression analysis between real and nominal stock prices as the dependent variables and inflation as the independent variable shows statistically significant evidence that (a nominal stock returns are positively related to inflation while real stock returns are not; and (b both nominal and real stock returns are negatively related to accelerations of inflation and positively related to decelerations.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SCARCITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND THEIR REAL PRICES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roland Toth

2011-01-01

Full Text Available There has been a long running concern about resource depletion. Some argue this concern is misplaced, while others consider it to be an urgent problem requiring immediate action. Economists suggest that long term prices, adjusted for inflation (real prices, provide a useful and effective indicator of resource scarcity. This study tests this hypothesis in consideration of the accepted theory that traditional price deflators, such as the US consumer price index, overestimate inflation-, and accordingly-, are likely to underestimate long term commodity prices. To investigate the usefulness of real prices as an indicator of scarcity, a case study of two metals considered to be expensive (platinum and rhodium and two considered to be relatively inexpensive (copper and lead was used. Real long term price indices were constructed and econometric analysis used to determine the direction and significance of long-term price trends and whether real prices were correlated with other scarcity indicators such as the Reserves-toproduction ratio. The results show, when an appropriate adjustment is made to the deflator, long-run trends in real metal prices are all upward, and there is a significant relationship between the real prices and scarcity indicators, such as the reserves-to-production ratios, for platinum and rhodium, but not for copper and lead. These findings suggest that real prices of platinum and rhodium are more affected by their scarcity, while copper and lead prices are likely to be more dependent on other factors such as high substitutability with other virgin and recycled materials.

Modern Energy Markets Real-Time Pricing, Renewable Resources and Efficient Distribution

CERN Document Server

Kopsakangas-Savolainen, Maria

2012-01-01

Energy has moved to the forefront in terms of societal and economic development. Modern Energy Markets is a comprehensive, economically oriented, exploration of modern electricity networks from production and distribution to deregulation and liberalization processes. Updating previous work by the authors, different aspects are considered resulting in a complete and detailed picture of  the systems and characteristics of modern electricity markets. Modern Energy Markets provides clear detail whilst encompassing a broad scope of topics and includes: •A method to model energy production systems including the main characteristics of future demand side management, •Different applications of this model in nuclear and renewable energy scenarios, •An analysis of Real-Time Pricing of electricity and its potential effects across the market, and, •A discussion of the need for regulation in an easily monopolized industry. Engineering and Economics students alike will find that Modern Energy Markets is a succinct...

Contextual Intelligent Load Management Considering Real Time Pricing in a Smart Grid Environment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gomes, Luis; Fernandes, Filipe; Faria, Pedro

2013-01-01

The use of demand response programs enables the adequate use of resources of small and medium players, bringing high benefits to the smart grid, and increasing its efficiency. One of the difficulties to proceed with this paradigm is the lack of intelligence in the management of small and medium...... size players. In order to make demand response programs a feasible solution, it is essential that small and medium players have an efficient energy management and a fair optimization mechanism to decrease the consumption without heavy loss of comfort, making it acceptable for the users. This paper...... addresses the application of real-time pricing in a house that uses an intelligent optimization module involving artificial neural networks....

A closed-loop energy price controlling method for real-time energy balancing in a smart grid energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alagoz, B. Baykant; Kaygusuz, Asim; Akcin, Murat; Alagoz, Serkan

2013-01-01

Future smart grids will require a flexible, observable, and controllable network for reliable and efficient energy delivery under uncertain generation and demand conditions. One of the mechanisms for efficient and reliable energy generation is dynamic demand-responsive generation management based on energy price adjustments that creates a balance in energy markets. This study presents a closed-loop PID (proportional–integral–derivative) controller-based price control method for autonomous and real-time balancing of energy demand and generation in smart grid electricity markets. The PID control system can regulate energy prices online to respond dynamically and instantaneously to the varying energy demands of grid consumers. Independent energy suppliers in the smart grid decide whether to sell their energy to the grid according to the energy prices declared by the closed-loop PID controller system. Energy market simulations demonstrate that PID-controlled energy price regulation can effectively maintain an energy balance for hourly demand fluctuations of consumers. - Highlights: • This study presents a control theoretic approach for management of energy balance. • A closed-loop PID controller-based price controlling method is used in smart grid. • The simulation results demonstrate advantages of PID-based energy price control. • This method is appropriate for demand responsive management of smart grid markets

Exponential smoothing approaches for prediction in real-time electricity markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

2014-01-01

The optimal design of offering strategies for wind power producers is commonly based on unconditional (and, hence, constant) expectation values for prices in real-time markets, directly defining their loss function in a stochastic optimization framework. This is why it may certainly be advantageous...... to account for the seasonal and dynamic behavior of such prices, hence translating to time-varying loss functions. With that objective in mind, forecasting approaches relying on simple models that accommodate the seasonal and dynamic nature of real-time prices are derived and analyzed. These are all based...

Correlated continuous time random walk and option pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Lv, Longjin; Xiao, Jianbin; Fan, Liangzhong; Ren, Fuyao

2016-04-01

In this paper, we study a correlated continuous time random walk (CCTRW) with averaged waiting time, whose probability density function (PDF) is proved to follow stretched Gaussian distribution. Then, we apply this process into option pricing problem. Supposing the price of the underlying is driven by this CCTRW, we find this model captures the subdiffusive characteristic of financial markets. By using the mean self-financing hedging strategy, we obtain the closed-form pricing formulas for a European option with and without transaction costs, respectively. At last, comparing the obtained model with the classical Black-Scholes model, we find the price obtained in this paper is higher than that obtained from the Black-Scholes model. A empirical analysis is also introduced to confirm the obtained results can fit the real data well.

Oil prices and the rise and fall of the U.S. real exchange rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amano, R.A.; Norden, S. van.

1993-12-01

It is examined whether a link exists between oil price shocks and the U.S. real effective exchange rate. Data used for the study are described and their time series properties and the long-run explanatory power of oil prices for the real exchange rate are examined. Apparent causal relationships between exchange rates and oil prices are examined. An unrestricted error correction model is reduced until an error correction model with reasonable properties is derived. Results show that the two variables appear to be cointegrated and that causality runs from oil prices to the exchange rate and not vice-versa. The single equation error correction model linking these two variables is stable and captures much of the in- and out-of-sample movement in the exchange rate in dynamic simulation. Tests are presented to show that the error correction model has significant post-sample predictive ability for both the size and sign of changes in the real effective exchange rate. The results suggest that oil prices may have been the dominant source of persistant real exchange rate shocks over the post-Bretton Woods period and that energy prices may have important implications for future work on exchange rate behaviour. 61 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

Is there an upward long term trend in Danish real house prices?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skak, Morten

2012-01-01

In Denmark, like in other countries, there is no agreement on the fundamental long term path of real house prices and the sustainability of the present price level. The paper presents Danish house price indices and discusses the question of quality correction of the indices. Subsequently, factors...... behind the long term trend in real house prices and its sustainability are discussed. The paper finds an annual real growth trend around 1.5 per cent for Danish single family house prices likely for the coming ten years....

The Availability of Residential Real Estate Increasing by Means of State Compensation of Prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vitaly Viktorovich Ivanitskiy

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article analyzes the influence of natural monopolies on the value of residential property, discusses the basic energy resources affecting it. Oil is defined as the main energy resource, its main brands, and their features are considered. The different authors’ perspectives of the impact of oil prices on the real estate prices are considered (“no effect”, “direct effect” and “indirect effect”. Schemes (models, clearly demonstrating the cause-and-effect relations of the impact of prices of the main energy resources on each other and on the value of residential property, are provided. The stability of relations between the prices of the major energy recourses (between each other as well as between each resource and real estate prices and residential property prices in the primary market are analyzed. The interval of “crisis” and “crisis-free” time is defined. The impact of the energy in “crisis” and “crisis-free” time is analyzed. The impact of oil prices on the residential property prices is proved through the cement as the main price-determining element in the construction. The introduction of the state target compensation allowing to increase the availability of residential property is proposed as one of the elements of a comprehensive solution of the “housing question”. The size of the state target compensation in absolute (in rubles and relative (% prices for residential real estate values is determined, taking into account the sufficient reproduction of the population, and restrictions on the right to use it are introduced. The total value of the state target compensation per total number of homebuyers is calculated, and its share in the expenditures of the consolidated budget and budgets of state extra-budgetary funds is determined. The realization of the state target compensation based on an average annual growth among the major countries of the world is grounded.

Dynamic Pricing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sharifi, Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Fathi, S. Hamid

2017-01-01

Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes h...... of dynamic pricing can lead to increased willingness of consumers to participate in DR programs which in turn improve the operation of liberalized electricity markets.......Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes...

Optimal scheduling using priced timed automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Behrmann, Gerd; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Rasmussen, Jacob Illum

2005-01-01

This contribution reports on the considerable effort made recently towards extending and applying well-established timed automata technology to optimal scheduling and planning problems. The effort of the authors in this direction has to a large extent been carried out as part of the European...... projects VHS [20] and AMETIST [16] and are available in the recently released UPPAAL CORA [12], a variant of the real-time verification tool UPPAAL [18, 5] specialized for cost-optimal reachability for the extended model of so-called priced timed automata....

Real Time Information Based Energy Management Using Customer Preferences and Dynamic Pricing in Smart Homes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Babar Rasheed

2016-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents real time information based energy management algorithms to reduce electricity cost and peak to average ratio (PAR while preserving user comfort in a smart home. We categorize household appliances into thermostatically controlled (tc, user aware (ua, elastic (el, inelastic (iel and regular (r appliances/loads. An optimization problem is formulated to reduce electricity cost by determining the optimal use of household appliances. The operational schedules of these appliances are optimized in response to the electricity price signals and customer preferences to maximize electricity cost saving and user comfort while minimizing curtailed energy. Mathematical optimization models of tc appliances, i.e., air-conditioner and refrigerator, are proposed which are solved by using intelligent programmable communication thermostat ( iPCT. We add extra intelligence to conventional programmable communication thermostat (CPCT by using genetic algorithm (GA to control tc appliances under comfort constraints. The optimization models for ua, el, and iel appliances are solved subject to electricity cost minimization and PAR reduction. Considering user comfort, el appliances are considered where users can adjust appliance waiting time to increase or decrease their comfort level. Furthermore, energy demand of r appliances is fulfilled via local supply where the major objective is to reduce the fuel cost of various generators by proper scheduling. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithms efficiently schedule the energy demand of all types of appliances by considering identified constraints (i.e., PAR, variable prices, temperature, capacity limit and waiting time.

Cluster Computing for Embedded/Real-Time Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Katz, D.; Kepner, J.

1999-01-01

Embedded and real-time systems, like other computing systems, seek to maximize computing power for a given price, and thus can significantly benefit from the advancing capabilities of cluster computing.

Markets in real electric networks require reactive prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hogan, W.W.

1996-01-01

Extending earlier seminal work, the author finds that locational spot price differences in an electric network provide the natural measure of the appropriate internodal transport charge. However, the problem of loop flow requires different economic intuition for interpreting the implications of spot pricing. The Direct Current model, which is the usual approximation for estimating spot prices, ignores reactive power effects; this approximation is best when thermal constraints create network congestion. However, when voltage constraints are problematic, the DC Load model is insufficient; a full AC Model is required to determine both real and reactive spot prices. 16 figs., 3 tabs., 22 refs

A Canadian case study : the value of real time electricity monitoring : a real-time cost utility management solution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rouse, S.; Dittburner, D.

2006-01-01

Energy prices can vary significantly over the course of a single day in response to changing levels in energy demand and availability of supply. The impacts of varying energy prices on business and industry means that hourly electricity costs can fluctuate widely over the course of a day even though energy use remains stable. This presentation gave details of an energy efficiency initiative at Unilever's Rexdale site which has resulted in $4 million saved through reductions in energy consumption and equipment retrofits. The Rexdale plant won an energy efficiency award in 2005, and the success of the initiative was attributed to the use of Utility 3 + , an energy management software tool. A turn key system with integrated software and hardware, Utility 3 + is capable of measuring how much energy is being used and can provide details of costs using a combination of historical and forecast prices. The tool is equipped with alarms with pre-set thresholds to match real-time rises in energy prices. Real-time prices are relayed from the Internet along with a 2 way data communication system. It was concluded that use of the tool has resulted in improved cash flow management and greater control of energy costs. A system description of the tool was provided, as well as details of various equipment retrofits. refs.., tabs., figs

A Canadian case study : the value of real time electricity monitoring : a real-time cost utility management solution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rouse, S. [Energy at Work, Toronto, ON (Canada); Dittburner, D. [Unilever Canada, Toronto, ON (Canada)

2006-07-01

Energy prices can vary significantly over the course of a single day in response to changing levels in energy demand and availability of supply. The impacts of varying energy prices on business and industry means that hourly electricity costs can fluctuate widely over the course of a day even though energy use remains stable. This presentation gave details of an energy efficiency initiative at Unilever's Rexdale site which has resulted in $4 million saved through reductions in energy consumption and equipment retrofits. The Rexdale plant won an energy efficiency award in 2005, and the success of the initiative was attributed to the use of Utility 3{sup +}, an energy management software tool. A turn key system with integrated software and hardware, Utility 3{sup +} is capable of measuring how much energy is being used and can provide details of costs using a combination of historical and forecast prices. The tool is equipped with alarms with pre-set thresholds to match real-time rises in energy prices. Real-time prices are relayed from the Internet along with a 2 way data communication system. It was concluded that use of the tool has resulted in improved cash flow management and greater control of energy costs. A system description of the tool was provided, as well as details of various equipment retrofits. refs.., tabs., figs.

Real House Price Dynamics in OECD countries - The risk of large movements in prices

OpenAIRE

Mamre, Mari Olsen

2014-01-01

Using different econometric approaches and based on a panel of 21 OECD countries this thesis investigate whether differences in structural or policy factors significantly affects the price responsiveness of shocks to demand in the short run and in the cases of abrupt movements in real prices. Over such steeper areas of the housing cycle the analysis focus specifically on finding evidence of asymmetric responses of demand and structural factors on price dynamics. The study of asymmetries in th...

Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of Factors Affecting Real Property Price Index From Case Study Research In Istanbul/Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Denli, H. H.; Koc, Z.

2015-12-01

Estimation of real properties depending on standards is difficult to apply in time and location. Regression analysis construct mathematical models which describe or explain relationships that may exist between variables. The problem of identifying price differences of properties to obtain a price index can be converted into a regression problem, and standard techniques of regression analysis can be used to estimate the index. Considering regression analysis for real estate valuation, which are presented in real marketing process with its current characteristics and quantifiers, the method will help us to find the effective factors or variables in the formation of the value. In this study, prices of housing for sale in Zeytinburnu, a district in Istanbul, are associated with its characteristics to find a price index, based on information received from a real estate web page. The associated variables used for the analysis are age, size in m2, number of floors having the house, floor number of the estate and number of rooms. The price of the estate represents the dependent variable, whereas the rest are independent variables. Prices from 60 real estates have been used for the analysis. Same price valued locations have been found and plotted on the map and equivalence curves have been drawn identifying the same valued zones as lines.

Exponential Smoothing Approaches for Prediction in Real-Time Electricity Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tryggvi Jónsson

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The optimal design of offering strategies for wind power producers is commonly based on unconditional (and, hence, constant expectation values for prices in real-time markets, directly defining their loss function in a stochastic optimization framework. This is why it may certainly be advantageous to account for the seasonal and dynamic behavior of such prices, hence translating to time-varying loss functions. With that objective in mind, forecasting approaches relying on simple models that accommodate the seasonal and dynamic nature of real-time prices are derived and analyzed. These are all based on the well-known Holt–Winters model with a daily seasonal cycle, either in its conventional form or conditioned upon exogenous variables, such as: (i day-ahead price; (ii system load; and (iii wind power penetration. The superiority of the proposed approach over a number of common benchmarks is subsequently demonstrated through an empirical investigation for the Nord Pool, mimicking practical forecasting for a three-year period over 2008–2011.

Pricing real estate index options under stochastic interest rates

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Pu; Dai, Jun

2017-08-01

Real estate derivatives as new financial instruments are not merely risk management tools but also provide a novel way to gain exposure to real estate assets without buying or selling the physical assets. Although real estate derivatives market has exhibited a rapid development in recent years, the valuation challenge of real estate derivatives remains a great obstacle for further development in this market. In this paper, we derive a partial differential equation contingent on a real estate index in a stochastic interest rate environment and propose a modified finite difference method that adopts the non-uniform grids to solve this problem. Numerical results confirm the efficiency of the method and indicate that constant interest rate models lead to the mispricing of options and the effects of stochastic interest rates on option prices depend on whether the term structure of interest rates is rising or falling. Finally, we have investigated and compared the different effects of stochastic interest rates on European and American option prices.

Towards Efficient Energy Management of Smart Buildings Exploiting Heuristic Optimization with Real Time and Critical Peak Pricing Schemes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sheraz Aslam

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The smart grid plays a vital role in decreasing electricity cost through Demand Side Management (DSM. Smart homes, a part of the smart grid, contribute greatly to minimizing electricity consumption cost via scheduling home appliances. However, user waiting time increases due to the scheduling of home appliances. This scheduling problem is the motivation to find an optimal solution that could minimize the electricity cost and Peak to Average Ratio (PAR with minimum user waiting time. There are many studies on Home Energy Management (HEM for cost minimization and peak load reduction. However, none of the systems gave sufficient attention to tackle multiple parameters (i.e., electricity cost and peak load reduction at the same time as user waiting time was minimum for residential consumers with multiple homes. Hence, in this work, we propose an efficient HEM scheme using the well-known meta-heuristic Genetic Algorithm (GA, the recently developed Cuckoo Search Optimization Algorithm (CSOA and the Crow Search Algorithm (CSA, which can be used for electricity cost and peak load alleviation with minimum user waiting time. The integration of a smart Electricity Storage System (ESS is also taken into account for more efficient operation of the Home Energy Management System (HEMS. Furthermore, we took the real-time electricity consumption pattern for every residence, i.e., every home has its own living pattern. The proposed scheme is implemented in a smart building; comprised of thirty smart homes (apartments, Real-Time Pricing (RTP and Critical Peak Pricing (CPP signals are examined in terms of electricity cost estimation for both a single smart home and a smart building. In addition, feasible regions are presented for single and multiple smart homes, which show the relationship among the electricity cost, electricity consumption and user waiting time. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed scheme for single and multiple smart

Beyond the sticker price: including and excluding time in comparing food prices.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yanliang; Davis, George C; Muth, Mary K

2015-07-01

An ongoing debate in the literature is how to measure the price of food. Most analyses have not considered the value of time in measuring the price of food. Whether or not the value of time is included in measuring the price of a food may have important implications for classifying foods based on their relative cost. The purpose of this article is to compare prices that exclude time (time-exclusive price) with prices that include time (time-inclusive price) for 2 types of home foods: home foods using basic ingredients (home recipes) vs. home foods using more processed ingredients (processed recipes). The time-inclusive and time-exclusive prices are compared to determine whether the time-exclusive prices in isolation may mislead in drawing inferences regarding the relative prices of foods. We calculated the time-exclusive price and time-inclusive price of 100 home recipes and 143 processed recipes and then categorized them into 5 standard food groups: grains, proteins, vegetables, fruit, and dairy. We then examined the relation between the time-exclusive prices and the time-inclusive prices and dietary recommendations. For any food group, the processed food time-inclusive price was always less than the home recipe time-inclusive price, even if the processed food's time-exclusive price was more expensive. Time-inclusive prices for home recipes were especially higher for the more time-intensive food groups, such as grains, vegetables, and fruit, which are generally underconsumed relative to the guidelines. Focusing only on the sticker price of a food and ignoring the time cost may lead to different conclusions about relative prices and policy recommendations than when the time cost is included. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Granger Causalities Between Interest Rate, Price Level, Money Supply and Real Gdp in the Czech Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomáš Urbanovský

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The main aim of this paper is to investigate relationships between selected macroeconomic variables – interest rate, price level, money supply and real GDP – in the Czech Republic in order to find out definite implications of its interactions and give recommendations to macroeconomic policy authorities. Two implemented vector autoregression models with different lag length reached slightly different conclusions. VAR(1 suggests that three pairs of Granger causality exist, in particular between price level and interest rate, between real GDP and interest rate and between real GDP and price level. VAR(2 uncovered two more pairs of Granger causality between money supply and interest rate and between money supply and price level. Despite better prediction power of VAR(2 in case of money supply, low correlation coefficient comprising variable money supply raises doubts about the factual existence of causality between money supply and other variables. However, both models allow forecasting the direction of change in case of variables interest rate and real GDP with the same success rate nearly 82 %. Both VARs also agreed that interest rate could be changed by change of price level and that interest rate could be changed by change of real GDP. These conclusions represent potential recommendations to macroeconomic policy authorities. For the purpose of further research, exchange rate variable will be included in the model instead of interest rate, because effect of interest rate turned out to be limited in times of weakened state of Czech economy.

ECONOMICAL PLANS EFFECTS ON CHARCOAL PRICES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Luiz Pereira Rezende

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Energy is essential for human needs satisfaction. With the evolution of machinery, man becomes more and more dependent on the energy stocked in fossil fuels, comparatively to the primitive economy. Wood charcoal is a thermal-reducer used in Brazilian pig iron and steel industries, and its price is formed in an oligopsonic market. Over time, the charcoal prices have varied in function of endogenous and exogenous factors, needing, therefore, to be deflated so that they can be compared in two or more points in time. This work analyzed the variations of charcoal real prices, in national currency; compared and analyzed the real charcoal price in nominal and in real US Dollar and; analyzed the real prices of charcoal, comparatively to the real oil prices. The analyses were accomplished in the period from January 1975 to December 2002. The time series of charcoal prices, in domestic currency were deflated using IGP-DI, considering august, 1994=100, and charcoal prices were also converted to American dollar and deflated using CPI, considering the period 1982-84=100. It was compared, then, the real and nominal charcoal prices. It concluded that the real charcoal prices in Brazilian domestic currency, or in American dollar, presented a decreasing tendency along time. The inflationary disarray, in the 80´s and the first half of the 90 ´s, provoked a big price variation in the period; from the beginning the XXI century, charcoal prices were more influenced by the exchange rate; in the energy crisis period, charcoal prices suffered big changes that, however, did not persist along time.

A Survey of Utility Experience with Real Time Pricing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Neenan, Bernie

2004-12-01

While more than 70 utilities in the U.S. have offered voluntary RTP tariffs on either a pilot or permanent basis, most have operated in relative obscurity. To bring this broad base of experience to bear on policymakers current efforts to stimulate price responsive demand, we conducted a survey of 43 voluntary RTP tariffs offered in 2003. The survey involved telephone interviews with RTP program managers and other utility staff, as well as a review of regulatory documents, tariff sheets, program evaluations, and other publicly available sources. Based on this review of RTP program experience, we identify key trends related to: utilities motivations for implementing RTP, evolution of RTP tariff design, program participation, participant price response, and program outlook. We draw from these findings to discuss implications for policymakers that are currently considering voluntary RTP as a strategy for developing price responsive demand.

The Impact of Staging Olympic Games on Real Estate Price in Beijing

OpenAIRE

Tang Xuebing; Yao Yongling

2012-01-01

The price of the real estate in many cities of China has been rising up rapidly since a couple of years ago. Particularly, the increasing period is coinciding with the period of economic rising in Beijing. Therefore, many people thank that the higher price is mostly made by holding Olympic Game in 2008. In order to separate Olympic factor and non-Olympic factors, which were supposed to impact the price of real estate in Beijing, Differences-in-Differences (DD) method will be adopted in this p...

Fractality of profit landscapes and validation of time series models for stock prices

Science.gov (United States)

Yi, Il Gu; Oh, Gabjin; Kim, Beom Jun

2013-08-01

We apply a simple trading strategy for various time series of real and artificial stock prices to understand the origin of fractality observed in the resulting profit landscapes. The strategy contains only two parameters p and q, and the sell (buy) decision is made when the log return is larger (smaller) than p (-q). We discretize the unit square (p,q) ∈ [0,1] × [0,1] into the N × N square grid and the profit Π(p,q) is calculated at the center of each cell. We confirm the previous finding that local maxima in profit landscapes are scattered in a fractal-like fashion: the number M of local maxima follows the power-law form M ˜ Na, but the scaling exponent a is found to differ for different time series. From comparisons of real and artificial stock prices, we find that the fat-tailed return distribution is closely related to the exponent a ≈ 1.6 observed for real stock markets. We suggest that the fractality of profit landscape characterized by a ≈ 1.6 can be a useful measure to validate time series model for stock prices.

Real-Time Pricing Decision Making for Retailer-Wholesaler in Smart Grid Based on Game Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yeming Dai

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Real-time pricing DSM (demand side management is widely used to dynamically change or shift the electricity consumption in the smart grid. In this paper, a game decision making scheme is proposed in the smart grid with DSM. The interaction between two retailers and their wholesaler is modeled as a two-stage game model. Considering the competition between two retailers, two different game models are developed in terms of the different action order between retailers and their wholesaler. Through analyzing the equilibrium revenues of the retailers for different situations we find that although the wholesaler expects to decentralize certain management powers to the retailers, it has retained the right to change the rules of the game and frequently reneged on the promises. More specifically, the law should ensure that any change of the revenue-sharing formula must go through certain legal procedures. Imposing legal restrictions on the wholesaler’s discretionary policy suggests that the time-inconsistency problem is mitigated. Numerical simulation shows the effectiveness of proposed scheme.

Index of Real Sector Returns as Price Benchmarking for Islamic Banking Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Researchers of Islamic Banking Department

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Objective – Islamic Banking is closely related to the real sector. Then, its operation should reflect the real sector which is expected to contribute to the sustainable economic growth. Nevertheless, Islamic banks are still benchmarking the price of their products (profit sharing and sales on interest rate. This is as an implication of the implementation of the dual banking system. Moreover, the small portion of Islamic banking compared to the total national banks causes the competitiveness of Islamic banking product in terms of pricing has a high correlation with the interest rate of conventional counterpart. This phenomenon indicates the need to find.Method – This research employed library research method since this paper relies on secondary data by thoroughly reviewing the most relevant literature. The paper attempt to propose a pricing indicator which is based on the real sector activities as the root of Islamic banking operations.Result – Theoretically, this indicator can reflect the real rate of return of every industry sector. In addition, it can help Bank Indonesia to monitor the real sector performance and analyze the possible gap between real sector activities and financial sector. Furthermore, when the benchmark of real rate of real sector return is available, the return index of Islamic banking reflecting the profit sharing performance of the whole Islamic banking industry can be formulated. This concept is different with other indexes which are corresponding to the price of financial assets.Conclusion – In general, return index of real sector as a reference for Islamic banking product pricing is expected to define the way of non-interest return analysis, to calculate the non-interest return of selected sectors that becomes the focus of analysis using Cash Recovery Rates (CRR, forming an index of industry by sector in the second stage, by doing a certain weighting of those companies, to analyze the relationship between macro

Real Time Pricing as a Default or Optional Service for C&ICustomers: A Comparative Analysis of Eight Case Studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Hopper,Nicole; Ting, Michael; Neenan, Bernie

2005-08-01

Demand response (DR) has been broadly recognized to be an integral component of well-functioning electricity markets, although currently underdeveloped in most regions. Among the various initiatives undertaken to remedy this deficiency, public utility commissions (PUC) and utilities have considered implementing dynamic pricing tariffs, such as real-time pricing (RTP), and other retail pricing mechanisms that communicate an incentive for electricity consumers to reduce their usage during periods of high generation supply costs or system reliability contingencies. Efforts to introduce DR into retail electricity markets confront a range of basic policy issues. First, a fundamental issue in any market context is how to organize the process for developing and implementing DR mechanisms in a manner that facilitates productive participation by affected stakeholder groups. Second, in regions with retail choice, policymakers and stakeholders face the threshold question of whether it is appropriate for utilities to offer a range of dynamic pricing tariffs and DR programs, or just ''plain vanilla'' default service. Although positions on this issue may be based primarily on principle, two empirical questions may have some bearing--namely, what level of price response can be expected through the competitive retail market, and whether establishing RTP as the default service is likely to result in an appreciable level of DR? Third, if utilities are to have a direct role in developing DR, what types of retail pricing mechanisms are most appropriate and likely to have the desired policy impact (e.g., RTP, other dynamic pricing options, DR programs, or some combination)? Given a decision to develop utility RTP tariffs, three basic implementation issues require attention. First, should it be a default or optional tariff, and for which customer classes? Second, what types of tariff design is most appropriate, given prevailing policy objectives, wholesale market

Exploring the oil price and real GDP nexus for a small island economy, the Fiji Islands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prasad, Arti; Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Jashwini

2007-01-01

The goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between real GDP and oil prices using time series data for the period 1970-2005. Our main finding is that an increase in oil has a positive, albeit inelastic, impact on real GDP, inconsistent with the bulk of the literature. We argue that this is not a surprising result for the Fiji Islands. Our central argument focuses on two aspects of the Fijian economy: (1) the fact that actual output in Fiji has been around 50 per cent less than potential output; thus, Fiji's actual output has not reached a threshold level at which oil prices can negatively impact output; and (2) a rise in oil prices filters through to value added, which in turn is reflected in a larger actual output

Hydrogen from nuclear plus wind using real-time electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, A.I.; Duffey, R.B.; Fairlie, M.; Anders, P.

2004-01-01

During the early years of hydrogen's use as a vehicle fuel, penetration of the market will be small. This favours distributed production by electrolysis, which avoids the scale-dependent costs of distribution from centralized plants. For electrolysis actually to be the preferred option, capital equipment for electrolysis must be reasonably cheap but the dominant cost component is the electricity price. By about 2006, advanced designs of nuclear reactors should be available to produce electricity at around 30 US$/MW.h at the plant gate. The best approach to producing low-cost electrolytic hydrogen is shown to be use of such reactors to supply electricity to the grid at times of peak price and demand and to make hydrogen at other times In this paper, this model has been used to calculate the production costs for electrolytic hydrogen at the location where the electricity is generated, using the actual prices of electricity paid by the Alberta Power Pool in 2002 and 2003 and by the Ontario Grid for 2003. The analysis shows clearly that by optimizing the co-production of hydrogen and electricity (referred to as the H 2 /e process) the cost for hydrogen produced can comfortably meet the US Department of Energy's target of 2000 US$/tonne. Because of its lower availability factor, wind-produced electricity cannot meet this cost target. However, if wind power availability can reach 35%, an intermittent supplementary current of wind-generated electricity may economically be fed to an electrolytic plant primarily supplied by nuclear power. Additional current raises the voltage for electrolysis but there would be only small additional capital costs. The two non-CO 2 -emitting sources, nuclear and wind could become complementary, providing an affordable way of storing wind-generated electricity when the supply exceeds demand in electricity markets The analyses presented in this paper looks at the case of bulk production of H 2 /e in a 'wholesale' energy market and does not

Recovering a time-homogeneous stock price process from perpetual option prices

OpenAIRE

Ekström, Erik; Hobson, David

2009-01-01

It is well known how to determine the price of perpetual American options if the underlying stock price is a time-homogeneous diffusion. In the present paper we consider the inverse problem, that is, given prices of perpetual American options for different strikes, we show how to construct a time-homogeneous stock price model which reproduces the given option prices.

Jumps and stochastic volatility in oil prices: Time series evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larsson, Karl; Nossman, Marcus

2011-01-01

In this paper we examine the empirical performance of affine jump diffusion models with stochastic volatility in a time series study of crude oil prices. We compare four different models and estimate them using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The support for a stochastic volatility model including jumps in both prices and volatility is strong and the model clearly outperforms the others in terms of a superior fit to data. Our estimation method allows us to obtain a detailed study of oil prices during two periods of extreme market stress included in our sample; the Gulf war and the recent financial crisis. We also address the economic significance of model choice in two option pricing applications. The implied volatilities generated by the different estimated models are compared and we price a real option to develop an oil field. Our findings indicate that model choice can have a material effect on the option values.

Construction of Discrete Time Shadow Price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogala, Tomasz; Stettner, Lukasz

2015-01-01

In the paper expected utility from consumption over finite time horizon for discrete time markets with bid and ask prices and strictly concave utility function is considered. The notion of weak shadow price, i.e. an illiquid price, depending on the portfolio, under which the model without bid and ask price is equivalent to the model with bid and ask price is introduced. Existence and the form of weak shadow price is shown. Using weak shadow price usual (called in the paper strong) shadow price is then constructed

Hydrogen from nuclear plus wind using real-time electricity prices. Abstract 154

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, A.I.; Duffey, R.B.; Fairlie, M.

2004-01-01

'Full text:' During the early years of hydrogen's use as a vehicle fuel, penetration of the market will be small. This favours distributed production by electrolysis, which avoids the scale-dependent costs of distribution from centralized plants. For electrolysis actually to be the preferred option, capital equipment for electrolysis must be reasonably cheap but the dominant cost component is the electricity price. By about 2006, advanced designs of nuclear reactors should be available to produce electricity at around 30 US$/MW.h. The best approach to producing low-cost electrolytic hydrogen is shown to be use of such reactors to supply electricity to the grid at times of peak price and demand and to make hydrogen at other times. This model has been analysed using the actual prices of electricity paid by the Alberta Power Pool in 2002 and 2003 and by the Ontario Grid for 2003. The analysis shows clearly that this route electrolytic hydrogen can comfortably meet the US Department of Energy's hydrogen production-cost target of 2000$/t. Because of its low availability wind-produced electricity cannot meet this cost target. However, if wind availability can reach 35% availability, an intermittent supplementary current of wind-generated electricity may economically be fed to an electrolytic plant primarily supplied by nuclear power. Additional current raises the voltage for electrolysis but there would be only small additional capital costs. The two non-CO 2 -emitting sources, nuclear and wind (or other intermittent renewables with costs comparable to advanced nuclear) could become complementary, providing an affordable way of storing wind-generated electricity. (author)

Real price and affordability as challenges for effective tobacco control policies: an analysis for Argentina.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Iglesias, Germán; González-Rozada, Martín; Champagne, Beatriz Marcet; Schoj, Verónica

2015-02-01

To describe the evolution of cigarettes' real price and affordability during the last decade in Argentina. To analyze the real price of cigarettes, the weighted average monthly price of a pack of 20 cigarettes was divided by the consumer price index (CPI) from 2004 to 2014. The relative income price (RIP) was evaluated for the same period, defining RIP as the percentage of the income required to buy 100 packs of 20-per-pack cigarettes. The RIP was calculated for first-quartile, median, and third-quartile income groups. The lower the RIP, the higher the affordability. The nominal price of a pack of 20 cigarettes sold in Argentina increased from AR$ 2.24 in March 2004 to AR$ 14.36 in June 2014 (nominal price increase of about 19.7% per year). The real price fell from AR$ 2.24 in March 2004 to AR$ 2.11 in June 2014 (real price drop of about 0.6% per year). Between June 2004 and June 2014, the RIP decreased about 39% for the 3rd quartile income group (from 31.3% to 19.2%), about 42% for the median (from 55.7% to 32.0%), and about 50% for the 1st quartile (from 104.4% to 51.8%). In Argentina, inflation and rising income were greater than growth in cigarette prices. Cigarette affordability increased for each income group, with the highest shifts occurring among the poorest and most vulnerable income earners. The increased affordability of cigarettes might reduce the impact of implemented tobacco control policies.

Real price and affordability as challenges for effective tobacco control policies: an analysis for Argentina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Germán Rodríguez-Iglesias

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Objective. To describe the evolution of cigarettes' real price and affordability during the last decade in Argentina. Methods. To analyze the real price of cigarettes, the weighted average monthly price of a pack of 20 cigarettes was divided by the consumer price index (CPI from 2004 to 2014. The relative income price (RIP was evaluated for the same period, defining RIP as the percentage of the income required to buy 100 packs of 20-per-pack cigarettes. The RIP was calculated for first-quartile, median, and third-quartile income groups. The lower the RIP, the higher the affordability. Results. The nominal price of a pack of 20 cigarettes sold in Argentina increased from AR$ 2.24 in March 2004 to AR$ 14.36 in June 2014 (nominal price increase of about 19.7% per year. The real price fell from AR$ 2.24 in March 2004 to AR$ 2.11 in June 2014 (real price drop of about 0.6% per year. Between June 2004 and June 2014, the RIP decreased about 39% for the 3rd quartile income group (from 31.3% to 19.2%, about 42% for the median (from 55.7% to 32.0%, and about 50% for the 1st quartile (from 104.4% to 51.8%. Conclusions. In Argentina, inflation and rising income were greater than growth in cigarette prices. Cigarette affordability increased for each income group, with the highest shifts occurring among the poorest and most vulnerable income earners. The increased affordability of cigarettes might reduce the impact of implemented tobacco control policies.

Time scale defined by the fractal structure of the price fluctuations in foreign exchange markets

Science.gov (United States)

Kumagai, Yoshiaki

2010-04-01

In this contribution, a new time scale named C-fluctuation time is defined by price fluctuations observed at a given resolution. The intraday fractal structures and the relations of the three time scales: real time (physical time), tick time and C-fluctuation time, in foreign exchange markets are analyzed. The data set used is trading prices of foreign exchange rates; US dollar (USD)/Japanese yen (JPY), USD/Euro (EUR), and EUR/JPY. The accuracy of the data is one minute and data within a minute are recorded in order of transaction. The series of instantaneous velocity of C-fluctuation time flowing are exponentially distributed for small C when they are measured by real time and for tiny C when they are measured by tick time. When the market is volatile, for larger C, the series of instantaneous velocity are exponentially distributed.

Monetary Policy and Real Estate Prices: A Disaggregated Analysis for Switzerland

OpenAIRE

Berlemann, Michael; Freese, Julia

2010-01-01

Most empirical studies found that monetary policy has a significant effect on house prices while stock markets remain unaffected by interest rate shocks. In this paper we conduct a more detailed analysis by studying various sub-segments of the real estate market. Em-ploying a new dataset for Switzerland we estimate vector autoregressive models and find substitution effects between house and apartment prices on the one hand and rental prices on the other. Interestingly enough, commercial prope...

EVALUATION OF LAND BASED ON MARKET PRICE OBJECTS OF REAL ESTATE IN UKRAINE: PROBLEMS AND WAYS OF THEIR SOLUTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MARTYN А. G.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Summary. Raising of problem. During the reform of land and property relations, has been carried out in Ukraine since the early 1990s, land plots and buildings received the status of goods, participate in economic turnover, have value and price. At the same time, not the most important prerequisite for the introduction in Ukraine of a mass valuation of real estate, which is intended to become a base for the fair taxation of land plots and other real estate, should be the systematic collection of mass data on the market prices of real estate. Constant changes, additions and improvements to the current normative monetary assessment of land do not give a real change in the methodology of assessment because it is based on regulatory indicators, there is a non-market based assessment. This approach does not give positive results and in the overwhelming majority we distort the evaluation indicators. As a result, there is a situation where in some places the price of a square meter is much lower than the market (real price, while in others it is much higher than the actual price. Thus, the transition to the use of monetary land valuation, which is based on mass market indicators (mass valuation, will get rid of the regulatory indicators by introducing a market valuation base. Purpose. Conduct an analysis of the current state of monetary valuation of land in Ukraine, form the main problems of the modern land assessment area and guide the ways to improve and transition to market valuation of land based on widespread use of mass data on market prices of real estate. Conclusion. The analysis of the current state of the monetary valuation of land shows a significant deviation of the evaluation results with real market prices, indicating the imperfection of the existing method of normative monetary evaluation. Mass evaluation in the short term can solve the problems with the reliability of the estimates and improve the system of land taxation.

STOCHASTIC PRICING MODEL FOR THE REAL ESTATE MARKET: FORMATION OF LOG-NORMAL GENERAL POPULATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleg V. Rusakov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We construct a stochastic model of real estate pricing. The method of the pricing construction is based on a sequential comparison of the supply prices. We proof that under standard assumptions imposed upon the comparison coefficients there exists an unique non-degenerated limit in distribution and this limit has the lognormal law of distribution. The accordance of empirical distributions of prices to thetheoretically obtained log-normal distribution we verify by numerous statistical data of real estate prices from Saint-Petersburg (Russia. For establishing this accordance we essentially apply the efficient and sensitive test of fit of Kolmogorov-Smirnov. Basing on “The Russian Federal Estimation Standard N2”, we conclude that the most probable price, i.e. mode of distribution, is correctly and uniquely defined under the log-normal approximation. Since the mean value of log-normal distribution exceeds the mode - most probable value, it follows that the prices valued by the mathematical expectation are systematically overstated.

Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borovkova, Svetlana; Schmeck, Maren Diane

2017-01-01

In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process' volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand. - Highlights: • We develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. • We incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices, such as seasonal volatility and spikes into the model. • We use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change • We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. • We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths.

The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Prices of Swiss Real Estate Companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie Ligocká

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Stock values of companies listed on stock exchanges could be influenced by many factors. The aim of this article is to examine existence and character of relationship between stock prices of selected Swiss real estate companies and macroeconomic fundamentals (GDP, interest rate, price level. The existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals is tested with the Johansen cointegration. The short run dynamics between the variables is examined by Vector Error Correction modelling and the Granger causality test. During the period 2005 – 2014 we revealed a long‑run equilibrium for five of the six analyzed stocks. We also confirmed that macroeconomic variables and the interest rate in particular, can explain a long-run behavior of stock prices. By contrast, macroeconomic variables are usually short in explanation of short‑run dynamics of stock prices. However, the results differ substantially among the stocks and, hence, they prevent us from drawing any general conclusion for the entire real estate sector in Switzerland.

Real-time control of power systems using nodal prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jokic, A.; Lazar, M.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.

2009-01-01

This article presents a novel control scheme for achieving optimal power balancing and congestion management in electrical power systems via nodal prices. We develop a dynamic controller that guarantees economically optimal steady-state operation while respecting all line flow constraints in

Probabilistic real-time contingency ranking method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mijuskovic, N.A.; Stojnic, D.

2000-01-01

This paper describes a real-time contingency method based on a probabilistic index-expected energy not supplied. This way it is possible to take into account the stochastic nature of the electric power system equipment outages. This approach enables more comprehensive ranking of contingencies and it is possible to form reliability cost values that can form the basis for hourly spot price calculations. The electric power system of Serbia is used as an example for the method proposed. (author)

Heterogeneous Investors, Negotiation Strength & Asset Prices in Private Markets: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David C. Ling

2013-08-01

Full Text Available We examine the impact of heterogeneous investors with asymmetric bargaining positions on transaction prices in private commercial real estate markets. Using a dataset that contains nearly 100,000 commercial real estate transactions during 1997-2009, we examine the extent to which common conditions of sale and buyer characteristics affect bargaining power and negotiated prices. We find that tax-motivated buyers seeking to complete a delayed Section 1031 exchange pay an average price premium of 12.5% when purchasing smaller properties. However, these price premiums for exchange motivated buyers are not observed among more expensive properties. We find strong evidence that out-of-state buyers pay significantly more (8 - 11% premium for commercial properties than in-state buyers. Consistent with our expectations, we find that sellers of distressed properties negotiate significantly lower transaction prices (13 - 15% discount than sellers of non-distressed properties, all else equal. Finally, we find evidence that REITs pay price premiums between 14 - 16% for office and industrial and retail properties. Our results strongly support the notion that relative bargaining power influences negotiated transaction prices.

REAL STOCK PRICES AND THE LONG-RUN MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION IN MALAYSIA: Evidence from Error Correction Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naziruddin Abdullah

2004-06-01

Full Text Available This study adopts the error correction model to empirically investigate the role of real stock prices in the long run-money demand in the Malaysian financial or money market for the period 1977: Q1-1997: Q2. Specifically, an attempt is made to check whether the real narrow money (M1/P is cointegrated with the selected variables like industrial production index (IPI, one-year T-Bill rates (TB12, and real stock prices (RSP. If a cointegration between the variables, i.e., the dependent and independent variables, is found to be the case, it may imply that there exists a long-run co-movement among these variables in the Malaysian money market. From the empirical results it is found that the cointegration between money demand and real stock prices (RSP is positive, implying that in the long run there is a positive association between real stock prices (RSP and demand for real narrow money (M1/P. The policy implication that can be extracted from this study is that an increase in stock prices is likely to necessitate an expansionary monetary policy to prevent nominal income or inflation target from undershooting.

Space-time modeling of electricity spot prices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abate, Girum Dagnachew; Haldrup, Niels

In this paper we derive a space-time model for electricity spot prices. A general spatial Durbin model that incorporates the temporal as well as spatial lags of spot prices is presented. Joint modeling of space-time effects is necessarily important when prices and loads are determined in a network...... in the spot price dynamics. Estimation of the spatial Durbin model show that the spatial lag variable is as important as the temporal lag variable in describing the spot price dynamics. We use the partial derivatives impact approach to decompose the price impacts into direct and indirect effects and we show...... that price effects transmit to neighboring markets and decline with distance. In order to examine the evolution of the spatial correlation over time, a time varying parameters spot price spatial Durbin model is estimated using recursive estimation. It is found that the spatial correlation within the Nord...

Real-time heterogeneous video transcoding for low-power applications

CERN Document Server

Elarabi, Tarek; Bayoumi, Magdy

2014-01-01

This book introduces a novel transcoding algorithm for real time video applications, designed to overcome inter-operability problems between MPEG-2 to H.264/AVC. The new algorithm achieves 92.8% reduction in the transcoding run time at a price of an acceptable Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR) degradation, enabling readers to use it for real time video applications. The algorithm described is evaluated through simulation and experimental results. In addition, the authors present a hardware implementation of the new algorithm using Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) and Application-specific standard products (ASIC).   • Describes a novel transcoding algorithm for real time video applications, designed to overcome inter-operability problems between H.264/AVC to MPEG-2; • Implements algorithm presented using Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) and Application-specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC); • Demonstrates the solution to real problems, with verification through simulation and experimental result...

Can producer currency pricing models generate volatile real exchange rates?

OpenAIRE

Povoledo, L.

2012-01-01

If the elasticities of substitution between traded and nontraded and between Home and Foreign traded goods are sufficiently low, then the real exchange rate generated by a model with full producer currency pricing is as volatile as in the data.

Dynamic Relationships between Price and Net Asset Value for Asian Real Estate Stocks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kim Hiang LIOW

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper examines short- and long-term behavior of the price-to net asset value ratio in six Asian public real estate markets. We find mean-reverting behavior of the ratio and spillover effects, where each of the examined public real estate markets correlates with other markets. Additionally, the unexpected shock correlating with the price-to-net asset value ratio in one market has a positive or negative correlation with the ratios of other markets. Our results offer fresh insights to portfolio managers, policymakers, and academic researchers into the regional and country market dynamics of public real estate valuation and cross-country interaction from the long-term and short-term perspectives.

Orchestrating utility supply and demand in real-time via the Internet, home networks, and smart appliances

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cruickshank, R.F. III [Power Networks, Big Indian, NY (United States)

2008-07-01

This paper presented a model to illustrate the efficient coordination between the supply-side and demand-side of household electricity use and the magnitude of demand that can be managed using real-time pricing. In real-time supply and demand side management, a variable price for service is sent via Internet from the supply-side to the demand-side. The 3 benefits to this type of demand-side management are that traditional fossil-fuelled electrical capacity can operate less of the time and more efficiently; renewable electrical capacity such as wind and solar power can be put to use more efficiently when it becomes available; and additional means are available to protect the transmission and distribution infrastructure of the utility. A critical requirement is that pricing should change frequently throughout the day so that budget conscious consumers do not have to wait too long for favourable pricing to use their appliances. 12 refs., 9 figs.

Alternative pricing regimes in Ontario : exploring the impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowlands, I.H.

2006-01-01

Legislative goals were recently established in Ontario to promote reliability and quality of electricity service and to ensure that distribution rates for customers remain reasonable. This presentation explored the effect of changing electricity pricing structures on residential customers in Ontario. This study investigated a period between May to December 2005, in the town of Milton, Ontario. Monthly demand was measured for each month, and monthly weighted averages were presented. Residents with electric heating were removed from the sample. Four pricing structure scenarios were examined: (1) flat rates; (2) time-of-use pricing regimes; (3) real time pricing regimes; and (4) critical peak pricing. Average monthly consumption rates for July and August for all 4 scenarios were presented. Results for time-of-use were compared to flat rates, which showed a slight increase in monthly costs. Real time average monthly electricity costs were significantly higher. Time-of-use costs increased by 57 per cent during the periods examined. Real time pricing regimes resulted in a 196 per cent rise in costs. It was concluded that more research must be done to explore the policy implications of pricing regimes and their effect on consumer behaviour. refs., tabs., figs

Real-Time Tariffs for Electric Vehicles in Wind Power based Power Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago; Silva, Marco

2013-01-01

’ behaviour and also the impact in load diagram. The paper proposes the energy price variation according to the relation between wind generation and power consumption. The proposed strategy was tested in two different days in the Danish power system. January 31st and August 13th 2013 were selected because......The use of Electric Vehicles (EVs) will change significantly the planning and management of power systems in a near future. This paper proposes a real-time tariff strategy for the charge process of the EVs. The main objective is to evaluate the influence of real-time tariffs in the EVs owners...... of the high quantities of wind generation. The main goal is to evaluate the changes in the EVs charging diagram with the energy price preventing wind curtailment....

The importance of time cost in pricing outpatient care.

Science.gov (United States)

Heshmat, S

1988-01-01

The purpose of this article is to discuss the component of the full price charged to patients using outpatient care. The full price of a visit to a physician is equal to out-of-pocket payment (money price), and time costs. In particular, the article discusses the concept of time price (marginal value of time for a patient), and presents a specific example to illustrate the concept of time price elasticity. The concepts and information presented in this article can help marketing managers in setting pricing strategy that would explicitly consider time price.

Minimum-Cost Reachability for Priced Timed Automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Behrmann, Gerd; Fehnker, Ansgar; Hune, Thomas Seidelin

2001-01-01

This paper introduces the model of linearly priced timed automata as an extension of timed automata, with prices on both transitions and locations. For this model we consider the minimum-cost reachability problem: i.e. given a linearly priced timed automaton and a target state, determine...... the minimum cost of executions from the initial state to the target state. This problem generalizes the minimum-time reachability problem for ordinary timed automata. We prove decidability of this problem by offering an algorithmic solution, which is based on a combination of branch-and-bound techniques...... and a new notion of priced regions. The latter allows symbolic representation and manipulation of reachable states together with the cost of reaching them....

Efficient Power Scheduling in Smart Homes Using Hybrid Grey Wolf Differential Evolution Optimization Technique with Real Time and Critical Peak Pricing Schemes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muqaddas Naz

2018-02-01

Full Text Available With the emergence of automated environments, energy demand by consumers is increasing rapidly. More than 80% of total electricity is being consumed in the residential sector. This brings a challenging task of maintaining the balance between demand and generation of electric power. In order to meet such challenges, a traditional grid is renovated by integrating two-way communication between the consumer and generation unit. To reduce electricity cost and peak load demand, demand side management (DSM is modeled as an optimization problem, and the solution is obtained by applying meta-heuristic techniques with different pricing schemes. In this paper, an optimization technique, the hybrid gray wolf differential evolution (HGWDE, is proposed by merging enhanced differential evolution (EDE and gray wolf optimization (GWO scheme using real-time pricing (RTP and critical peak pricing (CPP. Load shifting is performed from on-peak hours to off-peak hours depending on the electricity cost defined by the utility. However, there is a trade-off between user comfort and cost. To validate the performance of the proposed algorithm, simulations have been carried out in MATLAB. Results illustrate that using RTP, the peak to average ratio (PAR is reduced to 53.02%, 29.02% and 26.55%, while the electricity bill is reduced to 12.81%, 12.012% and 12.95%, respectively, for the 15-, 30- and 60-min operational time interval (OTI. On the other hand, the PAR and electricity bill are reduced to 47.27%, 22.91%, 22% and 13.04%, 12%, 11.11% using the CPP tariff.

On the link between oil price and exchange rate: A time-varying VAR parameter approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bremond, Vincent; Razafindrabe, Tovonony; Hache, Emmanuel

2015-07-01

The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the effective exchange rate of the dollar and the oil price dynamics from 1976 to 2013. In this context, we propose to explore the economic literature dedicated to financial channels factors (exchange rate, monetary policy, and international liquidity) that could affect the oil price dynamics. In addition to oil prices and the effective exchange rate of the dollar, we use the dry cargo index as a proxy for the real economic activity and prices for precious and industrial raw materials. Using a Bayesian time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive estimation, our main results show that the US Dollar effective exchange rate elasticity of the crude oil prices is not constant across the time and remains negative from 1989. It then highlights that a depreciation of the effective exchange rate of the dollar leads to an increase of the crude oil prices. Our paper also demonstrates the growing influence of financial and commodities markets development upon the global economy. (authors)

Space-time modeling of timber prices

Science.gov (United States)

Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno

2006-01-01

A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...

Real-time systems

OpenAIRE

Badr, Salah M.; Bruztman, Donald P.; Nelson, Michael L.; Byrnes, Ronald Benton

1992-01-01

This paper presents an introduction to the basic issues involved in real-time systems. Both real-time operating sys and real-time programming languages are explored. Concurrent programming and process synchronization and communication are also discussed. The real-time requirements of the Naval Postgraduate School Autonomous Under Vehicle (AUV) are then examined. Autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), hard real-time system, real-time operating system, real-time programming language, real-time sy...

Minimum-Cost Reachability for Priced Timed Automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Behrmann, Gerd; Fehnker, Ansgar; Hune, Thomas Seidelin

2001-01-01

This paper introduces the model of linearly priced timed automata as an extension of timed automata, with prices on both transitions and locations. For this model we consider the minimum-cost reachability problem: i.e. given a linearly priced timed automaton and a target state, determine...... the minimum cost of executions from the initial state to the target state. This problem generalizes the minimum-time reachability problem for ordinary timed automata. We prove decidability of this problem by offering an algorithmic solution, which is based on a combination of branch-and-bound techniques...

Correlation between Chinese and international energy prices based on a HP filter and time difference analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Yongxiu; Wang, Bing; Wang, Jianhui; Xiong, Wei; Xia, Tian

2013-01-01

To establish a reasonable system and mechanism for Chinese energy prices, we use the Granger causality test, Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter and time difference analysis to research the pricing relationship between Chinese and international energy prices. We find that Chinese and international crude oil prices changed synchronously while Chinese refined oil prices follow the changes of international oil prices with the time difference being about 1 month to 2 months. Further, Australian coal prices Granger causes Chinese coal prices, and there is a high correlation between them. The U.S. electricity price is influenced by the WTI crude oil price, the U.S. gasoline price and the HenryHub gas price. Due to the unreasonable price-setting mechanism and regulation from the central government, China′s terminal market prices for both electricity and natural gas do not reflect the real supply–demand situation. This paper provides quantitative results on the correlation between Chinese and international energy prices to better predict the impact of international energy price fluctuations on China′s domestic energy supply and guide the design of more efficient energy pricing policies. Moreover, it provides references for developing countries to improve their energy market systems and trading, and to coordinate domestic and international energy markets. -- Highlights: •The Hodrick-Prescott filter and time difference analysis are used to research the correlation among energy prices. •Our study finds that the U.S. and British refined oil prices Granger cause the Chinese refined oil price. •Both Chinese and the Australian coal prices play an important role in the international coal market. •The Chinese terminal electric power and terminal natural gas prices are not highly correlated. •The results are useful for guiding the design of more efficient energy pricing policies in China

A stochastic model for stationary dynamics of prices in real estate markets. A case of random intensity for Poisson moments of prices changes

Science.gov (United States)

Rusakov, Oleg; Laskin, Michael

2017-06-01

We consider a stochastic model of changes of prices in real estate markets. We suppose that in a book of prices the changes happen in points of jumps of a Poisson process with a random intensity, i.e. moments of changes sequently follow to a random process of the Cox process type. We calculate cumulative mathematical expectations and variances for the random intensity of this point process. In the case that the process of random intensity is a martingale the cumulative variance has a linear grows. We statistically process a number of observations of real estate prices and accept hypotheses of a linear grows for estimations as well for cumulative average, as for cumulative variance both for input and output prises that are writing in the book of prises.

Real-time monitoring and operational control of drinking-water systems

CERN Document Server

Ocampo-Martínez, Carlos; Pérez, Ramon; Cembrano, Gabriela; Quevedo, Joseba; Escobet, Teresa

2017-01-01

This book presents a set of approaches for the real-time monitoring and control of drinking-water networks based on advanced information and communication technologies. It shows the reader how to achieve significant improvements in efficiency in terms of water use, energy consumption, water loss minimization, and water quality guarantees. The methods and approaches presented are illustrated and have been applied using real-life pilot demonstrations based on the drinking-water network in Barcelona, Spain. The proposed approaches and tools cover: • decision-making support for real-time optimal control of water transport networks, explaining how stochastic model predictive control algorithms that take explicit account of uncertainties associated with energy prices and real demand allow the main flow and pressure actuators—pumping stations and pressure regulation valves—and intermediate storage tanks to be operated to meet demand using the most sustainable types of source and with minimum electricity costs;...

A computationally efficient electricity price forecasting model for real time energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feijoo, Felipe; Silva, Walter; Das, Tapas K.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A fast hybrid forecast model for electricity prices. • Accurate forecast model that combines K-means and machine learning techniques. • Low computational effort by elimination of feature selection techniques. • New benchmark results by using market data for year 2012 and 2015. - Abstract: Increased significance of demand response and proliferation of distributed energy resources will continue to demand faster and more accurate models for forecasting locational marginal prices. This paper presents such a model (named K-SVR). While yielding prediction accuracy comparable with the best known models in the literature, K-SVR requires a significantly reduced computational time. The computational reduction is attained by eliminating the use of a feature selection process, which is commonly used by the existing models in the literature. K-SVR is a hybrid model that combines clustering algorithms, support vector machine, and support vector regression. K-SVR is tested using Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland market data from the periods 2005–6, 2011–12, and 2014–15. Market data from 2006 has been used to measure performance of many of the existing models. Authors chose these models to compare performance and demonstrate strengths of K-SVR. Results obtained from K-SVR using the market data from 2012 and 2015 are new, and will serve as benchmark for future models.

Demonstration of Market-Based Real-Time Electricity Pricing on a Congested Feeder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Emil Mahler; Pinson, Pierre; le Ray, Guillaume

2015-01-01

Congestion management can delay grid reinforcements needed due to the growth of distributed technologies like photovoltaics and electric vehicles. This paper presents a method of congestion management for low voltage feeders using indirect control from the smart grid demonstration EcoGrid EU, where...... prices to 1900 houses, with a virtual feeder of 28 houses receiving congestion pricing. Simulations are used to calculate the cost from using this congestion management method, while demonstration results indicate that congestion can be managed successfully....

An online learning approach to dynamic pricing for demand response

OpenAIRE

Jia, Liyan; Tong, Lang; Zhao, Qing

2014-01-01

In this paper, the problem of optimal dynamic pricing for retail electricity with an unknown demand model is considered. Under the day-ahead dynamic pricing (a.k.a. real time pricing) mechanism, a retailer obtains electricity in a twosettlement wholesale market and serves its customers in real time. Without knowledge on the aggregated demand function of its customers, the retailer aims to maximize its retail surplus by sequentially adjusting its price based on the behavior of its customers in...

Real-Time Pricing for Demand Response in Smart Grid Based on Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongbo Zhu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The real-time pricing (RTP scheme is an ideal method to adjust the power balance between supply and demand in smart grid systems. This scheme has a profound impact on users’ behavior, system operation, and overall grid management in the electricity industry. In this research, we conduct an extended discussion of a RTP optimization model and give a theoretical analysis of the existence and uniqueness of the Lagrangian multiplier. A distributed optimization method based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM algorithm with Gaussian back substitution (GBS is proposed in this study. On the one hand, the proposed algorithm takes abundant advantage of the separability among variables in the model. On the other hand, the proposed algorithm can not only speed up the convergence rate to enhance the efficiency of computing, but also overcome the deficiency of the distributed dual subgradient algorithm, the possibility of nonconvergence in the iteration process. In addition, we give the theoretical proof of the convergence of the proposed algorithm. Furthermore, the interdependent relationship between variables has been discussed in depth during numerical simulations in the study. Compared with the dual subgradient method, the simulation results validate that the proposed algorithm has a higher convergence speed and better implementation effect.

Early experience in centralized real time energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alaywan, Z.; Hernandez, L.; Martin, M.

2005-01-01

The current structure of the California Independent System Operator (ISO) was described. The study provided an outline of California's transition from a decentralized pool operation to a forward bilateral market through the implementation of a centralized real time market. Details of the institutional, economic and technological history of the power system were provided. Although the California real time market was implemented in order to simplify the power system, a number of operational challenges were observed. Discontinuities in the energy curve resulted in the implementation of a target price process, which aimed to resolve the overlap in energy bids. The design of the ISO's real time market did not provide a mechanism for bidders to execute real time energy trades. Regulation bidders also internalized energy in their regulation capacity bids. The real time market application (RTMA) provided the ISO with a substantial computer program to determine and account for nearly all aspects of generation unit scheduling and physical characteristics with a multiple ramp rate. The program combined optimal power flow (OPF) logic for energy flows in addition to mixed-integer nonlinear optimization of trading schedules, and system and security constraints. The RTMA used a multi-period security constrained economic dispatch (SCED) function to optimize energy dispatch schedules. Other features of the RTMA included security constrained unit commitment, security constrained economic dispatch, and dispatch schedule post processes. It was concluded that implementation of the RTMA has increased the efficiency of the ISO. A case study of the RTMA during an outage in November 2004 was provided. 5 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

Optimal pricing of non-utility generated electric power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siddiqi, S.N.; Baughman, M.L.

1994-01-01

The importance of an optimal pricing policy for pricing non-utility generated power is pointed out in this paper. An optimal pricing policy leads to benefits for all concerned: the utility, industry, and the utility's other customers. In this paper, it is shown that reliability differentiated real-time pricing provides an optimal non-utility generated power pricing policy, from a societal welfare point of view. Firm capacity purchase, and hence an optimal price for purchasing firm capacity, are an integral part of this pricing policy. A case study shows that real-time pricing without firm capacity purchase results in improper investment decisions and higher costs for the system as a whole. Without explicit firm capacity purchase, the utility makes greater investment in capacity addition in order to meet its reliability criteria than is socially optimal. It is concluded that the non-utility generated power pricing policy presented in this paper and implied by reliability differentiated pricing policy results in social welfare-maximizing investment and operation decisions

Priced Timed Automata:  Theory and Tools

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

2009-01-01

Priced timed automata are emerging as useful formalisms for modeling and analysing a broad range of resource allocation problems. In this extended abstract, we highlight recent (un)deci\\-dability results related to priced timed automata as well as point to a number of open problems....

Real-time versus day-ahead market power in a hydro-based electricity market

OpenAIRE

Tangerås, Thomas P.; Mauritzen, Johannes

2014-01-01

We analyse in a theoretical framework the link between real-time and day-ahead market performance in a hydro-based and imperfectly competitive wholesale electricity market. Theoretical predictions of the model are tested on data from the Nordic power exchange, Nord Pool Spot (NPS).We reject the hypothesis that prices at NPS were at their competitive levels throughout the period under examination. The empirical approach uses equilibrium prices and quantities and does not rely on bid data nor o...

Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Siddiqui, Afzal S.

2003-05-01

The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium model, we find that price elasticity both increases the retailers revenue risk exposure and decreases the spot price. Since the latter induces the retailer to reduce forward electricity purchases, while the former has the opposite effect, the overall impact of price responsive demand on the relative magnitudes of its risk exposure and end-user price elasticity. Nevertheless, price elasticity decreases cumulative electricity consumption. By extending the analysis to allow for early settlement of demand, we find that forward stage end-user price responsiveness decreases the electricity forward price relative to the case with price-elastic demand only in real time. Moreover, we find that only if forward stage end-user demand is price elastic will the equilibrium electricity forward price be reduced.

Real options theory to the pricing of allowances contract to carbon emission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horii, Leticia Takahashi; Parente, Virginia; Goldemberg, Jose

2010-01-01

The objective of this work is to develop a pricing model contract for allowances to emit carbon through Real Options. Emissions allowances are equivalent tons of carbon traded between Annex I countries from companies that have the ability to reduce their emissions beyond what is assigned to it. The surplus of emission reductions produced by these companies may be sold in the emissions market. Thus, this work can contribute to improving the management of contractual risk and enable companies estimated the price at which a contract can be signed. Properly evaluate the contracts that the market environment is a challenge for companies. The historic low of information and randomness in the price of carbon allowances in the spot market suggest extreme caution in its use. (author)

Nominal and real price convergence in Romania – Statistical evaluation -

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihai Gheorghe

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The creation of both the Economic and Monetary Union and of the single common market have meant two very important steps in getting a more and more compact Union. The first step regarding EMU lead to the adoption of a single currency and to the elimination of the exchange rates fluctuations, while the second one lead to the elimination of physical, administrative and technical barriers in order to achieve a sustainable economic growth and a stimulation of competition. Romanian authorities set out a new target year for the Euro adoption. Technically, the euro adoption as of 1 January 2019 would imply participation in the ERM II starting 1 January 2016 for the minimum 2-year stay. During this period the EU authorities will assess whether Romania meet the determined criteria for entering the third stage of EMU. The purpose of the paper is to assess the nominal and real convergence of Romanian prices, before and after the admission to the European Union (EU. The paper provides a short presentation of technical consideration of the both indices used to measure the price convergence, namely Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP and the price level estimated in the PEC framework. A retrospective analysis since the EU admission show that in Romania, the inflation measured by the harmonized index of consumer prices has been on a downward trend, but is still relatively high, at an average rate of 3,2% in 2013. In Romania the price level is significantly lower as compared to the EU 15 average (46%, most probably this is due to the low per capita income level. In addition, the poor marketing and the low reputation of the domestic goods and services can also be regarded as factors reducing the convergence of prices in Romania and the EU.

The Role of Smart Meters in Enabling Real-Time Energy Services for Households: The Italian Case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessandro Pitì

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The Smart Meter (SM is an essential tool for successful balancing the demand-offer energy curve. It allows the linking of the consumption and production measurements with the time information and the customer’s identity, enabling the substitution of flat-price billing with smarter solutions, such as Time-of-Use or Real-Time Pricing. In addition to sending data to the energy operators for billing and monitoring purposes, Smart Meters must be able to send the same data to customer devices in near-real-time conditions, enabling new services such as instant energy awareness and home automation. In this article, we review the ongoing situation in Europe regarding real-time services for the final customers. Then, we review the architectural and technological options that have been considered for the roll-out phase of the Italian second generation of Smart Meters. Finally, we identify a collection of use cases, along with their functional and performance requirements, and discuss what architectures and communications technologies can meet these requirements.

Ex-vessel Fish Price Database: Disaggregating Prices for Low-Priced Species from Reduction Fisheries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Travis C. Tai

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Ex-vessel fish prices are essential for comprehensive fisheries management and socioeconomic analyses for fisheries science. In this paper, we reconstructed a global ex-vessel price database with the following areas of improvement: (1 compiling reported prices explicitly listed as “for reduction to fishmeal and fish oil” to estimate prices separately for catches destined for fishmeal and fish oil production, and other non-direct human consumption purposes; (2 including 95% confidence limit estimates for each price estimation; and (3 increasing the number of input data and the number of price estimates to match the reconstructed Sea Around Us catch database. Our primary focus was to address this first area of improvement as ex-vessel prices for catches destined for non-direct human consumption purposes were substantially overestimated, notably in countries with large reduction fisheries. For example in Peru, 2010 landed values were estimated as 3.8 billion real 2010 USD when using separate prices for reduction fisheries, compared with 5.8 billion using previous methods with only one price for all end-products. This update of the price database has significant global and country-specific impacts on fisheries price and landed value trends over time.

The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cross, Jamie; Nguyen, Bao H.

2017-01-01

We employ a class of time-varying Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) models on new standard dataset of China's GDP constructed by to examine the relationship between China's economic growth and global oil market fluctuations between 1992Q1 and 2015Q3. We find that: (1) the time varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility provides a better fit as compared to it's constant counterparts; (2) the impacts of intertemporal global oil price shocks on China's output are often small and temporary in nature; (3) oil supply and specific oil demand shocks generally produce negative movements in China's GDP growth whilst oil demand shocks tend to have positive effects; (4) domestic output shocks have no significant impact on price or quantity movements within the global oil market. The results are generally robust to three commonly employed indicators of global economic activity: Kilian's global real economic activity index, the metal price index and the global industrial production index, and two alternative oil price metrics: the US refiners' acquisition cost for imported crude oil and the West Texas Intermediate price of crude oil. - Highlights: • A class of time-varying BVARs is used to examine the relationship between China's economic growth and global oil market fluctuations. • The impacts of intertemporal global oil price shocks on China's output are often small and temporary in nature. • Oil supply and specific oil demand shocks generally produce negative movements in China's GDP growth while oil demand shocks tend to have positive effects. • Domestic output shocks have no significant impact on price or quantity movements within the global oil market.

Pricing and simulation for real estate index options: Radial basis point interpolation

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Pu; Zou, Dong; Wang, Jiayue

2018-06-01

This study employs the meshfree radial basis point interpolation (RBPI) for pricing real estate derivatives contingent on real estate index. This method combines radial and polynomial basis functions, which can guarantee the interpolation scheme with Kronecker property and effectively improve accuracy. An exponential change of variables, a mesh refinement algorithm and the Richardson extrapolation are employed in this study to implement the RBPI. Numerical results are presented to examine the computational efficiency and accuracy of our method.

Pricing by timing: innovating broadband data plans

Science.gov (United States)

Ha, Sangtae; Joe-Wong, Carlee; Sen, Soumya; Chiang, Mung

2012-01-01

Wireless Internet usage is doubling every year. Users are using more of high bandwidth data applications, and the heavy usage concentrates on several peak hours in a day, forcing ISPs to overprovision their networks accordingly. In order to remain profitable, ISPs have been using pricing as a congestion management tool. We review many of such pricing schemes in practice today and argue that they do not solve ISPs' problem of growing data traffic. We believe that dynamic, time-dependent usage pricing, which charges users based on when they access the Internet, can incentivize users to spread out their bandwidth consumption more evenly across different times of the day, thus helping ISPs to overcome the problem of peak congestion. Congestion pricing is not a new idea in itself, but the time for its implementation in data networks has finally arrived. Our key contribution lies in developing new analysis and a fully integrated system architecture, called TUBE (Time-dependent Usage-based Broadband price Engineering) that enables ISPs to implement the proposed TDP plan. The theory, simulation, and system implementation of TUBE system is further complemented with consumer surveys conducted in India and the US, along with preparations for a field trial that is currently underway.

The capital-asset pricing model reconsidered: tests in real terms on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper extends previous work of the authors to reconsider the capital-asset pricing model (CAPM) in South Africa in real terms. As in that work, the main question this study aimed to answer remains: Can the CAPM be accepted in the South African market for the purposes of the stochastic modelling of investment returns ...

Getting real with real options

OpenAIRE

M. R Grasselli

2006-01-01

We apply a utility-based method to obtain the value of a finite-time investment opportunity when the underlying real asset is not perfectly correlated to a traded financial asset. Using a discrete-time algorithm to calculate the indifference price for this type of real option, we present numerical examples for the corresponding investment thresholds, in particular highlighting their dependence with respect to correlation and risk aversion.

Real Time Revisited

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Phillip G.

1985-12-01

The call for abolishing photo reconnaissance in favor of real time is once more being heard. Ten years ago the same cries were being heard with the introduction of the Charge Coupled Device (CCD). The real time system problems that existed then and stopped real time proliferation have not been solved. The lack of an organized program by either DoD or industry has hampered any efforts to solve the problems, and as such, very little has happened in real time in the last ten years. Real time is not a replacement for photo, just as photo is not a replacement for infra-red or radar. Operational real time sensors can be designed only after their role has been defined and improvements made to the weak links in the system. Plodding ahead on a real time reconnaissance suite without benefit of evaluation of utility will allow this same paper to be used ten years from now.

Price discovery in a continuous-time setting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dias, Gustavo Fruet; Fernandes, Marcelo; Scherrer, Cristina

We formulate a continuous-time price discovery model in which the price discovery measure varies (stochastically) at daily frequency. We estimate daily measures of price discovery using a kernel-based OLS estimator instead of running separate daily VECM regressions as standard in the literature. We...... show that our estimator is not only consistent, but also outperforms the standard daily VECM in finite samples. We illustrate our theoretical findings by studying the price discovery process of 10 actively traded stocks in the U.S. from 2007 to 2013....

Loss Aversion and Time-Differentiated Electricity Pricing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spurlock, C. Anna [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2015-06-01

I develop a model of loss aversion over electricity expenditure, from which I derive testable predictions for household electricity consumption while on combination time-of-use (TOU) and critical peak pricing (CPP) plans. Testing these predictions results in evidence consistent with loss aversion: (1) spillover effects - positive expenditure shocks resulted in significantly more peak consumption reduction for several weeks thereafter; and (2) clustering - disproportionate probability of consuming such that expenditure would be equal between the TOUCPP or standard flat-rate pricing structures. This behavior is inconsistent with a purely neoclassical utility model, and has important implications for application of time-differentiated electricity pricing.

Controlling Electricity Consumption by Forecasting its Response to Varying Prices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Corradi, Olivier; Ochsenfeld, Henning Peter; Madsen, Henrik

2013-01-01

electricity consumption using a one-way price signal. Estimation of the price-response is based on data measurable at grid level, removing the need to install sensors and communication devices between each individual consumer and the price-generating entity. An application for price-responsive heating systems......In a real-time electricity pricing context where consumers are sensitive to varying prices, having the ability to anticipate their response to a price change is valuable. This paper proposes models for the dynamics of such price-response, and shows how these dynamics can be used to control...... is studied based on real data, before conducting a control by price experiment using a mixture of real and synthetic data. With the control objective of following a constant consumption reference, peak heating consumption is reduced by nearly 5%, and 11% of the mean daily heating consumption is shifted....

Repeat Assessed Values Model for Housing Price Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carini Manuela

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study proposes an innovative methodology, named Repeat Appraised Price Model (RAV, useful for determining the price index numbers for real estate markets and the corresponding index numbers of hedonic prices of main real estate characteristics in the case of a lack of data. The methodological approach proposed in this paper aims to appraise the time series of price index numbers. It integrates the principles of the method of repeat sales with the peculiarities of the Hedonic Price Method, overcoming the problem of an almost total absence of repeat sales for the same property in a given time range; on the other hand, the technique aims to overcome the limitation of the repeat sales technique concerning the inability to take into account the characteristics of individual properties.

Real-time Tactical and Strategic Sales Management for Intelligent Agents Guided By Economic Regimes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W. Ketter (Wolfgang); J. Collins (John); M. Gini (Maria); A. Gupta (Alok); P. Schrater (Paul)

2011-01-01

textabstractMany enterprises that participate in dynamic markets need to make product pricing and inventory resource utilization decisions in real-time. We describe a family of statistical models that address these needs by combining characterization of the economic environment with the ability to

Real-Time Tactical and Strategic Sales Management for Intelligent Agents Guided by Economic Regimes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W. Ketter (Wolfgang); J. Collins (John); M. Gini (Maria); A. Gupta (Alok); P. Schrater (Paul)

2012-01-01

textabstractMany enterprises that participate in dynamic markets need to make product pricing and inventory resource utilization decisions in real time. We describe a family of statistical models that addresses these needs by combining characterization of the economic environment with the ability to

Investment Risk in the Context of Price Changes on the Real Estate and Stock Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wolski Rafał

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The residential real estate market is thought to show a tendency for wide fluctuations in prices, as a result of which price bubbles appear. This element of risk has a direct bearing on investors interested in speculation and those seeking to meet their housing needs. Wide fluctuations in the values of real estate affect the investors’ financial situation in many ways, by determining the possibility of meeting one’s housing needs, reducing or sometimes raising creditworthiness, and by increasing investment risk measured by volatility. Omitting the obvious social dimension of the residential real estate market and concentrating on its financial aspects, the author of the article analyses to what degree wide swings in prices can be recognized as specific to this market. To this end, the volatility of prices in the stock market and in the secondary housing market in Poland is compared. An analysis is performed to establish which of them has higher average volatility measures or rates of return, i.e. which of them is more profitable or secure for investors. Statistical tests are used to find out whether average rates of return or measures of risk are equal or different between the two markets. The results of the research show that the secondary housing market and the stock market differ concerning cumulative average rates of return and standard deviations. In the first of them, they are respectively higher and lower.

Housing price gradient and immigrant population: Data from the Italian real estate market.

Science.gov (United States)

Antoniucci, Valentina; Marella, Giuliano

2018-02-01

The database presented here was collected by Antoniucci and Marella to analyze the correlation between the housing price gradient and the immigrant population in Italy during 2016. It may also be useful in other statistical analyses, be they on the real estate market or in another branches of social science. The data sample relates to 112 Italian provincial capitals. It provides accurate information on urban structure, and specifically on urban density. The two most significant variables are original indicators constructed from official data sources: the housing price gradient, or the ratio between average prices in the center and suburbs by city; and building density, which is the average number of housing units per residential building. The housing price gradient is calculated for the two residential sub-markets, new-build and existing units, providing an original and detailed sample of the Italian residential market. Rather than average prices, the housing price gradient helps to identify potential divergences in residential market trends. As well as house prices, two other data clusters are considered: socio-economic variables, which provide a framework of each city, in terms of demographic and economic information; and various data on urban structure, which are rarely included in the same database.

Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas. A Real-Time Analysis of market integration using the Kalman filter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siliverstovs, Boriss; Neumann, Anne

2005-01-01

This paper provides a textbook example of an econometric analysis of the integration between two commodity markets and the subsequent price convergence or absence thereof. We analyze price relations between spot markets for natural gas in Europe. The European market for natural gas is currently undergoing a liberalization process with the aim of creating a single, unified market. We use time-varying coefficient estimation models, applying the Kalman filter to test whether price convergence between different locations is really taking place. Our results reveal that the construction of a pipeline between the UK and Zeebrugge (Belgium) has lead to almost perfect price convergence between theses locations; on the other hand, liberalization on the European continent does not seem to be working so far. (Author)

Enabling demand response by extending the European electricity markets with a real-time market

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nyeng, P.; Kok, K.; Pineda, S.; Grande, O.; Sprooten, J.; Hebb, B.; Nieuwenhout, F.

2013-01-01

The EcoGrid concept proposes to extend the current wholesale electricity market to allow participation of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and domestic end-consumers in system balancing. Taking advantage of the smart grid technology, the EcoGrid market publishes the real-time prices that entail

Subtyping of swine influenza viruses using a high-throughput real time PCR platform

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Goecke, Nicole Bakkegård; Krog, Jesper Schak; Hjulsager, Charlotte Kristiane

). The results revealed that the performance of the dynamic chip was similar to conventional real time analysis. Discussion and conclusion. Application of the chip for subtyping of swine influenza has resulted in a significant reduction in time, cost and working hours. Thereby, it is possible to offer diagnostic...... test and subsequent subtyping is performed by real time RT-PCR (RT-qPCR) but several assays are needed to cover the wide range of circulating subtypes which is expensive,resource and time demanding. To mitigate these restrictions the high-throughput qPCR platform BioMark (Fluidigm) has been explored...... services with reduced price and turnover time which will facilitate choice of vaccines and by that lead to reduction of antibiotic used....

Resource-Optimal Scheduling Using Priced Timed Automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Rasmussen, Jacob Illum; Subramani, K.

2004-01-01

In this paper, we show how the simple structure of the linear programs encountered during symbolic minimum-cost reachability analysis of priced timed automata can be exploited in order to substantially improve the performance of the current algorithm. The idea is rooted in duality of linear......-80 percent performance gain. As a main application area, we show how to solve energy-optimal task graph scheduling problems using the framework of priced timed automata....

The tell-tale look: viewing time, preferences, and prices.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brian C Gunia

Full Text Available Even the simplest choices can prompt decision-makers to balance their preferences against other, more pragmatic considerations like price. Thus, discerning people's preferences from their decisions creates theoretical, empirical, and practical challenges. The current paper addresses these challenges by highlighting some specific circumstances in which the amount of time that people spend examining potential purchase items (i.e., viewing time can in fact reveal their preferences. Our model builds from the gazing literature, in a purchasing context, to propose that the informational value of viewing time depends on prices. Consistent with the model's predictions, four studies show that when prices are absent or moderate, viewing time provides a signal that is consistent with a person's preferences and purchase intentions. When prices are extreme or consistent with a person's preferences, however, viewing time is a less reliable predictor of either. Thus, our model highlights a price-contingent "viewing bias," shedding theoretical, empirical, and practical light on the psychology of preferences and visual attention, and identifying a readily observable signal of preference.

The tell-tale look: viewing time, preferences, and prices.

Science.gov (United States)

Gunia, Brian C; Murnighan, J Keith

2015-01-01

Even the simplest choices can prompt decision-makers to balance their preferences against other, more pragmatic considerations like price. Thus, discerning people's preferences from their decisions creates theoretical, empirical, and practical challenges. The current paper addresses these challenges by highlighting some specific circumstances in which the amount of time that people spend examining potential purchase items (i.e., viewing time) can in fact reveal their preferences. Our model builds from the gazing literature, in a purchasing context, to propose that the informational value of viewing time depends on prices. Consistent with the model's predictions, four studies show that when prices are absent or moderate, viewing time provides a signal that is consistent with a person's preferences and purchase intentions. When prices are extreme or consistent with a person's preferences, however, viewing time is a less reliable predictor of either. Thus, our model highlights a price-contingent "viewing bias," shedding theoretical, empirical, and practical light on the psychology of preferences and visual attention, and identifying a readily observable signal of preference.

A Faster Algorithm for Solving One-Clock Priced Timed Games

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Thomas Dueholm; Ibsen-Jensen, Rasmus; Miltersen, Peter Bro

2013-01-01

previously known time bound for solving one-clock priced timed games was 2O(n2+m) , due to Rutkowski. For our improvement, we introduce and study a new algorithm for solving one-clock priced timed games, based on the sweep-line technique from computational geometry and the strategy iteration paradigm from......One-clock priced timed games is a class of two-player, zero-sum, continuous-time games that was defined and thoroughly studied in previous works. We show that one-clock priced timed games can be solved in time m 12 n n O(1), where n is the number of states and m is the number of actions. The best...

A Faster Algorithm for Solving One-Clock Priced Timed Games

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Thomas Dueholm; Ibsen-Jensen, Rasmus; Miltersen, Peter Bro

2012-01-01

previously known time bound for solving one-clock priced timed games was 2^(O(n^2+m)), due to Rutkowski. For our improvement, we introduce and study a new algorithm for solving one-clock priced timed games, based on the sweep-line technique from computational geometry and the strategy iteration paradigm from......One-clock priced timed games is a class of two-player, zero-sum, continuous-time games that was defined and thoroughly studied in previous works. We show that one-clock priced timed games can be solved in time m 12^n n^(O(1)), where n is the number of states and m is the number of actions. The best...

A Unified Trading Model Based on Robust Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets with Wind Power Integration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jiang, Yuewen; Chen, Meisen; You, Shi

2017-01-01

In a conventional electricity market, trading is conducted based on power forecasts in the day-ahead market, while the power imbalance is regulated in the real-time market, which is a separate trading scheme. With large-scale wind power connected into the power grid, power forecast errors increase...... in the day-ahead market which lowers the economic efficiency of the separate trading scheme. This paper proposes a robust unified trading model that includes the forecasts of real-time prices and imbalance power into the day-ahead trading scheme. The model is developed based on robust optimization in view...... of the undefined probability distribution of clearing prices of the real-time market. For the model to be used efficiently, an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (IQPSO) is presented in the paper based on an in-depth analysis of the limitations of the static character of quantum-behaved particle...

Real Options in Capital Budgeting. Pricing the Option to Delay and the Option to Abandon a Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicoleta Vintila

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Traditional discounted cash-flows method for assessing projects assumes that investment decision is an irreversible one, which is not correct. Managers can and must reconsider their initial decision as the new information arises during the project life. This is managerial flexibility and it creates strategic value for a project, only if management takes advantage of the opportunities associated with an analyzed project. Real options represent a new approach in capital budgeting, using the theory of pricing financial options for investments in real assets. In this paper, we emphasize the characteristics and valuation methodologies of real options. The objective in the last section is pricing the option to delay and the option to abandon a project in construction materials field.

Optimal pricing and lot-sizing for perishable inventory with price and time dependent ramp-type demand

Science.gov (United States)

Panda, S.; Saha, S.; Basu, M.

2013-01-01

Product perishability is an important aspect of inventory control. To minimise the effect of deterioration, retailers in supermarkets, departmental store managers, etc. always want higher inventory depletion rate. In this article, we propose a dynamic pre- and post-deterioration cumulative discount policy to enhance inventory depletion rate resulting low volume of deterioration cost, holding cost and hence higher profit. It is assumed that demand is a price and time dependent ramp-type function and the product starts to deteriorate after certain amount of time. Unlike the conventional inventory models with pricing strategies, which are restricted to a fixed number of price changes and to a fixed cycle length, we allow the number of price changes before as well as after the start of deterioration and the replenishment cycle length to be the decision variables. Before start of deterioration, discounts on unit selling price are provided cumulatively in successive pricing cycles. After the start of deterioration, discounts on reduced unit selling price are also provided in a cumulative way. A mathematical model is developed and the existence of the optimal solution is verified. A numerical example is presented, which indicates that under the cumulative effect of price discounting, dynamic pricing policy outperforms static pricing strategy. Sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out.

Pricing the Ramping Reserve and Capacity Reserve in Real Time Markets

OpenAIRE

Ye, Hongxing; Li, Zuyi

2015-01-01

The increasing penetration of renewable energy in recent years has led to more uncertainties in power systems. In order to maintain system reliability and security, electricity market operators need to keep certain reserves in the Security-Constrained Economic Dispatch (SCED) problems. A new concept, deliverable generation ramping reserve, is proposed in this paper. The prices of generation ramping reserves and generation capacity reserves are derived in the Affine Adjustable Robust Optimizat...

Comparison of extended mean-reversion and time series models for electricity spot price simulation considering negative prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Fichtner, Wolf

2012-01-01

This paper evaluates different financial price and time series models, such as mean reversion, autoregressive moving average (ARMA), integrated ARMA (ARIMA) and general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process, usually applied for electricity price simulations. However, as these models are developed to describe the stochastic behaviour of electricity prices, they are extended by a separate data treatment for the deterministic components (trend, daily, weekly and annual cycles) of electricity spot prices. Furthermore price jumps are considered and implemented within a regime-switching model. Since 2008 market design allows for negative prices at the European Energy Exchange, which also occurred for several hours in the last years. Up to now, only a few financial and time series approaches exist, which are able to capture negative prices. This paper presents a new approach incorporating negative prices. The evaluation of the different approaches presented points out that the mean reversion and the ARMA models deliver the lowest mean root square error between simulated and historical electricity spot prices gained from the European Energy Exchange. These models posses also lower mean average errors than GARCH models. Hence, they are more suitable to simulate well-fitting price paths. Furthermore it is shown that the daily structure of historical price curves is better captured applying ARMA or ARIMA processes instead of mean-reversion or GARCH models. Another important outcome of the paper is that the regime-switching approach and the consideration of negative prices via the new proposed approach lead to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation. - Highlights: ► Considering negative prices improves the results of time-series and financial models for electricity prices. ► Regime-switching approach captures the jumps and base prices quite well. ► Removing and separate modelling of deterministic annual, weekly and daily

Estimating the effects of Technology and Depletion on the Real Price of Copper in the U. S. Using a Cointegration Approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bunuel, M.

2001-07-01

The effects of technology and depletion on U. S. copper scarcity- as measured by real price can be estimated explicitly using econometrics, rather than assuming the their combined effect is implicit in a quadratic trend. The two most relevant cost-decreasing technologies-black-caving and open-pit mining and leaching and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW)-are proxied by their rate of diffusion. Depletion is proxied by average yield. Since these proxies and real price contain a unit root. Johansen's maximum-likelihood estimation procedure is used to test for the number of cointegrating relations, and estimate a vector autoregressive model from which a price equation in error-correction form is derived. A unique cointegrating relation without a trend is found, which supports the hypothesis that the real price of copper has no scarcity-rent component if we believe that this components should be modeled as a trend. The cointegrating relation loads into the price equation, and the convergence towards the long-run equilibrium is almost instantaneous. The estimated combined effect of physical depletion and technology on the U. S. real price of copper shows that the diffusion of block-caving and open-pit mining technologies off set the effect on price of the decline in average yield until the end of the thirties. From 1938 to 1976, the combined effect was slightly positive, and markedly and continuously negative thereafter, as a result of the introduction of leaching and SX-EW technologies, and the stabilization and even increase of average yield. (Author)

Market News Price Dataset

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Real-time price data collected by the Boston Market News Reporter. The NOAA Fisheries' "Fishery Market News" began operations in New York City on February 14, 1938....

Green pastures: Do US real estate prices respond to population health?

Science.gov (United States)

Nau, Claudia; Bishai, David

2018-01-01

We investigate whether communities with improving population health will subsequently experience rising real estate prices. Home price indices (HPIs) for 371 MSAs from 1990 to 2010 are regressed against life-expectancy five years prior. HPIs come from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Life expectancy estimates come from the Institute of Health Metrics. Our analysis uses random and fixed effect models with a comprehensive set of controls. Life expectancy predicted increases in the HPI controlling for potential confounders. We found that, this effect varied spatially. Communities that invest their revenue from property taxes in public health infrastructure could benefit from a virtuous cycle of better health leading to higher property values. Communities that do not invest in health could enter vicious cycles and this could widen geospatial health and wealth disparities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electricity-market price and nuclear power plant shutdown: Evidence from California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, C.K.; Ho, T.; Zarnikau, J.; Olson, A.; Jones, R.; Chait, M.; Horowitz, I.; Wang, J.

2014-01-01

Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster, triggered by the March 11, 2011 earthquake, has led to calls for shutting down existing nuclear plants. To maintain resource adequacy for a grid's reliable operation, one option is to expand conventional generation, whose marginal unit is typically fueled by natural-gas. Two timely and relevant questions thus arise for a deregulated wholesale electricity market: (1) what is the likely price increase due to a nuclear plant shutdown? and (2) what can be done to mitigate the price increase? To answer these questions, we perform a regression analysis of a large sample of hourly real-time electricity-market price data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) for the 33-month sample period of April 2010–December 2012. Our analysis indicates that the 2013 shutdown of the state's San Onofre plant raised the CAISO real-time hourly market prices by $6/MWH to $9/MWH, and that the price increases could have been offset by a combination of demand reduction, increasing solar generation, and increasing wind generation. - Highlights: • Japan's disaster led to calls for shutting down existing nuclear plants. • We perform a regression analysis of California's real-time electricity-market prices. • We estimate that the San Onofre plant shutdown has raised the market prices by $6/MWH to $9/MWH. • The price increases could be offset by demand reduction and renewable generation increase

The Minimum Price Guarantee Policy before and after Real Plan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jackelline Favro

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the performance of the Minimum Price Guarantee Policy - MPGPin Brazil for the main agricultural products, during the 1980s and 1990s, and especially the post-Real Plan period. The research has a bibliographic and descriptive nature. The main results showed that the MPGP remains an important tool for ensuring income to farmers and the supply of selected crops in the analyzed period, but there was a reduction of public action for the new MPGP and new private instruments has revealed efficiency

Flexible Demand Management under Time-Varying Prices

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yong

In this dissertation, the problem of flexible demand management under time-varying prices is studied. This generic problem has many applications, which usually have multiple periods in which decisions on satisfying demand need to be made, and prices in these periods are time-varying. Examples of such applications include multi-period procurement problem, operating room scheduling, and user-end demand scheduling in the Smart Grid, where the last application is used as the main motivating story throughout the dissertation. The current grid is experiencing an upgrade with lots of new designs. What is of particular interest is the idea of passing time-varying prices that reflect electricity market conditions to end users as incentives for load shifting. One key component, consequently, is the demand management system at the user-end. The objective of the system is to find the optimal trade-off between cost saving and discomfort increment resulted from load shifting. In this dissertation, we approach this problem from the following aspects: (1) construct a generic model, solve for Pareto optimal solutions, and analyze the robust solution that optimizes the worst-case payoffs, (2) extend to a distribution-free model for multiple types of demand (appliances), for which an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) approach is developed, and (3) design other efficient algorithms for practical purposes of the flexible demand management system. We first construct a novel multi-objective flexible demand management model, in which there are a finite number of periods with time-varying prices, and demand arrives in each period. In each period, the decision maker chooses to either satisfy or defer outstanding demand to minimize costs and discomfort over a certain number of periods. We consider both the deterministic model, models with stochastic demand or prices, and when only partial information about the stochastic demand or prices is known. We first analyze the stochastic

Consumer responses to time varying prices for electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorsnes, Paul; Williams, John; Lawson, Rob

2012-01-01

We report new experimental evidence of the household response to weekday differentials in peak and off-peak electricity prices. The data come from Auckland, New Zealand, where peak residential electricity consumption occurs in winter for heating. Peak/off-peak price differentials ranged over four randomly selected groups from 1.0 to 3.5. On average, there was no response except in winter. In winter, participant households reduced electricity consumption by at least 10%, took advantage of lower off-peak prices but did not respond to the peak price differentials. Response varied with house and household size, time spent away from home, and whether water was heated with electricity. - Highlights: ► Seasonal effects in winter. ► High conservation effect from information. ► Higher peak prices no effect on peak use. ► Low off-peak prices encourage less conservation off-peak.

Pricing and Application of Electric Storage

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Jialin

Electric storage provides a vehicle to store power for future use. It contributes to the grids in multiple aspects. For instance, electric storage is a more effective approach to provide electricity ancillary services than conventional methods. Additionally, electric storage, especially fast-responding units, allows owners to implement high-frequency power transactions in settings such as the 5-min real-time trading market. Such high-frequency power trades were limited in the past. However, as technology advances, the power markets have evolved. For instance, the California Independent System Operator now supports the 5-min real-time trading and the hourly day-ahead ancillary services bidding. Existing valuation models of electric storage were not designed to accommodate these recent market developments. To fill this gap, I focus on the fast-responding grid-level electric storage that provides both the real-time trading and the day-ahead ancillary services bidding. To evaluate such an asset, I propose a Monte Carlo Simulation-based valuation model. The foundation of my model is simulations of power prices. This study develops a new simulation model of electric prices. It is worth noting that, unlike existing models, my proposed simulation model captures the dependency of the real-time markets on the day-ahead markets. Upon such simulations, this study investigates the pricing and the application of electric storage at a 5-min granularity. Essentially, my model is a Dynamic Programming system with both endogenous variables (i.e., the State-of-Charge of electric storage) and exogenous variables (i.e., power prices). My first numerical example is the valuation of a fictitious 4MWh battery. Similarly, my second example evaluates the application of two units of 2MWh batteries. By comparing these two experiments, I investigate the issues related to battery configurations, such as the impacts of splitting storage capability on the valuation of electric storage.

Discount-Optimal Infinite Runs in Priced Timed Automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fahrenberg, Uli; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

2009-01-01

We introduce a new discounting semantics for priced timed automata. Discounting provides a way to model optimal-cost problems for infinite traces and has applications in optimal scheduling and other areas. In the discounting semantics, prices decrease exponentially, so that the contribution...

The Triggers, Timing and Speed of New Product Price Landings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C. Hernández-Mireles (Carlos); D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

2008-01-01

textabstractMany high-tech products and durable goods exhibit exactly one significant price cut some time after their launch. We call this sudden transition from high to low prices the price landing. In this paper we present a new model that describes two important features of price landings: their

Comparative analysis of dynamic pricing strategies for managed lanes.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-06-01

The objective of this research is to investigate and compare the performances of different : dynamic pricing strategies for managed lanes facilities. These pricing strategies include real-time : traffic responsive methods, as well as refund options a...

Electricity Futures Prices : Time Varying Sensitivity to Fundamentals

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S-E. Fleten (Stein-Erik); R. Huisman (Ronald); M. Kilic (Mehtap); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); S. Westgaard (Sjur)

2014-01-01

textabstractThis paper provides insight in the time-varying relation between electricity futures prices and fundamentals in the form of prices of contracts for fossil fuels. As supply curves are not constant and different producers have different marginal costs of production, we argue that the

Retrospective evaluation of appliance price trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dale, Larry; Antinori, Camille; McNeil, Michael; McMahon, James E.; Sydny Fujita, K.

2009-01-01

Real prices of major appliances (refrigerators, dishwashers, heating and cooling equipment) have been falling since the late 1970s despite increases in appliance efficiency and other quality variables. This paper demonstrates that historic increases in efficiency over time, including those resulting from minimum efficiency standards, incur smaller price increases than were expected by the Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts made in conjunction with standards. This effect can be explained by technological innovation, which lowers the cost of efficiency, and by market changes contributing to lower markups and economies of scale in production of higher efficiency units. We reach four principal conclusions about appliance trends and retail price setting: 1.For the past several decades, the retail price of appliances has been steadily falling while efficiency has been increasing. 2.Past retail price predictions made by the DOE analyses of efficiency standards, assuming constant prices over time, have tended to overestimate retail prices. 3.The average incremental price to increase appliance efficiency has declined over time. DOE technical support documents have typically overestimated this incremental price and retail prices. 4.Changes in retail markups and economies of scale in production of more efficient appliances may have contributed to declines in prices of efficient appliances

Option Pricing with Time-changed Lévy Processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klingler, Sven; Kim, Young Shin; Rachev, Svetlozar T.

2013-01-01

In this article, we introduce two new six-parameter processes based on time-changing tempered stable distributions and develop an option pricing model based on these processes. This model provides a good fit to observed option prices. To demonstrate the advantages of the new processes, we conduct...

Real-time shadows

CERN Document Server

Eisemann, Elmar; Assarsson, Ulf; Wimmer, Michael

2011-01-01

Important elements of games, movies, and other computer-generated content, shadows are crucial for enhancing realism and providing important visual cues. In recent years, there have been notable improvements in visual quality and speed, making high-quality realistic real-time shadows a reachable goal. Real-Time Shadows is a comprehensive guide to the theory and practice of real-time shadow techniques. It covers a large variety of different effects, including hard, soft, volumetric, and semi-transparent shadows.The book explains the basics as well as many advanced aspects related to the domain

Dependable Real-Time Systems

Science.gov (United States)

1991-09-30

0196 or 413 545-0720 PI E-mail Address: krithi@nirvan.cs.umass.edu, stankovic(ocs.umass.edu Grant or Contract Title: Dependable Real - Time Systems Grant...Dependable Real - Time Systems " Grant or Contract Number: N00014-85-k-0398 L " Reporting Period: 1 Oct 87 - 30 Sep 91 , 2. Summary of Accomplishments ’ 2.1 Our...in developing a sound approach to scheduling tasks in complex real - time systems , (2) developed a real-time operating system kernel, a preliminary

Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuss, Sabine; Szolgayova, Jana

2010-01-01

Electricity generation is an important source of total CO 2 emissions, which in turn have been found to relate to an acceleration of global warming. Given that many OECD countries have to replace substantial portions of their electricity-generating capacity over the next 10-20 years, investment decisions today will determine the CO 2 -intensity of the future energy mix. But by what type of power plants will old (mostly fossil-fuel-fired) capacity be replaced? Given that modern, less carbon-intensive technologies are still expensive but can be expected to undergo improvements due to technical change in the near future, they may become more attractive, especially if fossil fuel price volatility makes traditional technologies more risky. At the same time, technological progress is an inherently uncertain process itself. In this paper, we use a real options model with stochastic technical change and stochastic fossil fuel prices in order to investigate their impact on replacement investment decisions in the electricity sector. We find that the uncertainty associated with the technological progress of renewable energy technologies leads to a postponement of investment. Even the simultaneous inclusion of stochastic fossil fuel prices in the same model does not make renewable energy competitive compared to fossil-fuel-fired technology in the short run based on the data used. This implies that policymakers have to intervene if renewable energy is supposed to get diffused more quickly. Otherwise, old fossil-fuel-fired equipment will be refurbished or replaced by fossil-fuel-fired capacity again, which enforces the lock-in of the current system into unsustainable electricity generation. (author)

LabVIEW Real-Time

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva; Flockhart, Ronald Bruce; Seppey, P

2003-01-01

With LabVIEW Real-Time, you can choose from a variety of RT Series hardware. Add a real-time data acquisition component into a larger measurement and automation system or create a single stand-alone real-time solution with data acquisition, signal conditioning, motion control, RS-232, GPIB instrumentation, and Ethernet connectivity. With the various hardware options, you can create a system to meet your precise needs today, while the modularity of the system means you can add to the solution as your system requirements grow. If you are interested in Reliable and Deterministic systems for Measurement and Automation, you will profit from this seminar. Agenda: Real-Time Overview LabVIEW RT Hardware Platforms - Linux on PXI Programming with LabVIEW RT Real-Time Operating Systems concepts Timing Applications Data Transfer

Concepts of real time and semi-real time material control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lovett, J.E.

1975-01-01

After a brief consideration of the traditional material balance accounting on an MBA basis, this paper explores the basic concepts of real time and semi-real time material control, together with some of the major problems to be solved. Three types of short-term material control are discussed: storage, batch processing, and continuous processing. (DLC)

An ill-posed problem for the Black-Scholes equation for a profitable forecast of prices of stock options on real market data

Science.gov (United States)

Klibanov, Michael V.; Kuzhuget, Andrey V.; Golubnichiy, Kirill V.

2016-01-01

A new empirical mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock, new initial and new boundary conditions. Conventional notions of maturity time and strike prices are not used. The Black-Scholes equation is solved as a parabolic equation with the reversed time, which is an ill-posed problem. Thus, a regularization method is used to solve it. To verify the validity of our model, real market data for 368 randomly selected liquid options are used. A new trading strategy is proposed. Our results indicates that our method is profitable on those options. Furthermore, it is shown that the performance of two simple extrapolation-based techniques is much worse. We conjecture that our method might lead to significant profits of those financial insitutions which trade large amounts of options. We caution, however, that further studies are necessary to verify this conjecture.

Real Time Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Knud Smed

2000-01-01

Describes fundamentals of parallel programming and a kernel for that. Describes methods for modelling and checking parallel problems. Real time problems.......Describes fundamentals of parallel programming and a kernel for that. Describes methods for modelling and checking parallel problems. Real time problems....

Real time expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi

1992-01-01

Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)

Oil prices: Breaks and trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noguera, José

2013-01-01

This paper contributes to the literature of the stationarity of financial time series and the literature on oil and macroeconomics in several ways. First, it uses Kejriwal and Perron (2010) sequential procedure to endogenously determine multiple structural changes in real oil prices without facing the circular testing problem between structural changes and stationary assumptions of previous tests. Second, it performs a diagnostic check to detect the significance and magnitude of the potential breaks. Third, it uses the above information to test for the existence of stochastic trends in real oil prices, and fourth, it speculates about possible explanations for the break dates found in order to encourage further work and discussions. The exercise uses monthly data from January 1861 to August 2011. - Highlights: ► The model endogenously determine multiple structural changes in real oil prices. ► The methods used does not face the circular testing problem. ► It also detect the significance and magnitude of the breaks detected. ► It tests for the existence of stochastic trends. ► It explains the reasons for the break dates found

The effects of combining dynamic pricing, AC load control, and real-time energy feedback. SMUD'S 2011 Residential Summer Solutions Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Herter, K. [Herter Energy Research Solutions, El Dorado Hills, CA (United States); Wood, V. [Sacramento Municipal Utility District, Sacramento, CA (United States); Blozis, S. [University of California, Davis, CA (United States)

2013-11-15

The 2011 Residential Summer Solutions Study compared the hourly load effects of three different real-time information treatments and two program options. The information treatments included: Baseline information (no real-time data), real-time Home information (whole-house data), and real-time Appliance information (data for the whole house plus three individual appliances). Compared to the Baseline group, real-time Home information lowered overall energy use by about 4 %. Real-time information at both the Home and Appliance levels had a significant effect on non-event peak loads: compared to the Baseline group, real-time Home data lowered peak load by 5 %, while Appliance data lowered peak load by 7 %. All three information treatments averaged a 1-kW (40 %) load shed during events. The customer-chosen program options included a dynamic time-of-use rate and a load control incentive program. Customers were more likely to sign up for the dynamic rate, and those who did saved significantly more peak load on both event days (>50 % savings) and non-event days (>20 % savings) than did those on the load control program alone. In addition, those on the dynamic rate saved twice as much on their summer bills as did those who chose to remain on the standard tiered rate. At the end of the summer, more than 90 % of participants signed up to participate again the following year.

Oil prices without OPEC: a walk on the supply-side

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roumasset, J.; Isaak, D.; Fesharaki, F.

1983-07-01

The rapid increases of oil prices during the 1970s are commonly regarded as prima facie evidence of monopoly power. This paper applies the theory of exhaustible resources to estimate the equilibrium oil prices (also known as efficiency prices) which would have prevailed in the absence of monopoly profits. The theory incorporates an extraction cost function wherein cost is a rising function of the cumulative amount of oil extracted. The model is used to simulate efficiency price paths under a variety of assumptions about extraction costs and real interest rates which are representative of perceptions at various times in recent history. These simulations show that the price increases of 1974 and 1979 to 1980 can be explained as a response to supply-side changes, especially changes in the perceived cost of the backstop technology and the fall in real interest rates in the mid and late 1970s. Thus, while efficiency prices were high in the 1970s, relative to extraction costs, it is plausible that average monopoly profits were negligible. This situation appears to have changed in the early 1980s due to the return of real interest rates to their historic levels. In early 1982, even spot prices, already below official prices, were substantially above the estimated efficiency or competitive price level. On the other hand, efficiency prices remain far above extraction costs. Thus, even if the price-setting power of OPEC were eroded by competition, the real price of oil would not fall below the level established in 1974. 18 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

A Unified Trading Model Based on Robust Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets with Wind Power Integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuewen Jiang

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In a conventional electricity market, trading is conducted based on power forecasts in the day-ahead market, while the power imbalance is regulated in the real-time market, which is a separate trading scheme. With large-scale wind power connected into the power grid, power forecast errors increase in the day-ahead market which lowers the economic efficiency of the separate trading scheme. This paper proposes a robust unified trading model that includes the forecasts of real-time prices and imbalance power into the day-ahead trading scheme. The model is developed based on robust optimization in view of the undefined probability distribution of clearing prices of the real-time market. For the model to be used efficiently, an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (IQPSO is presented in the paper based on an in-depth analysis of the limitations of the static character of quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (QPSO. Finally, the impacts of associated parameters on the separate trading and unified trading model are analyzed to verify the superiority of the proposed model and algorithm.

Application of the Price-Volume Approach in Cases of Innovative Drugs Where Value-Based Pricing is Inadequate: Description of Real Experiences in Italy.

Science.gov (United States)

Messori, Andrea

2016-08-01

Several cases of expensive drugs designed for large patient populations (e.g. sofosbuvir) have raised a complex question in terms of drug pricing. Even assuming value-based pricing, the treatment with these drugs of all eligible patients would have an immense budgetary impact, which is unsustainable also for the richest countries. This raises the need to reduce the prices of these agents in comparison with those suggested by the value-based approach and to devise new pricing methods that can achieve this goal. The present study discusses in detail the following two methods: (i) The approach based on setting nation-wide budget thresholds for individual innovative agents in which a fixed proportion of the historical pharmaceutical expenditure represents the maximum budget attributable to an innovative treatment; (ii) The approach based on nation-wide price-volume agreements in which drug prices are progressively reduced as more patients receive the treatment. The first approach has been developed in the USA by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review and has been applied to PCSK9 inhibitors (alirocumab and evolocumab). The second approach has been designed for the Italian market and has found a systematic application to manage the price of ranibizumab, sofosbuvir, and PCSK9 inhibitors. While, in the past, price-volume agreements have been applied only on an empirical basis (i.e. in the absence of any quantitative theoretical rule), more recently some explicit mathematical models have been described. The performance of these models is now being evaluated on the basis of the real-world experiences conducted in some European countries, especially Italy.

Price setting in turbulent times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ólafsson, Tjörvi; Pétursdóttir, Ásgerdur; Vignisdóttir, Karen Á.

This price setting survey among Icelandic firms aims to make two contributions to the literature. First, it studies price setting in an advanced economy within a more turbulent macroeconomic environment than has previously been done. The results indicate that price adjustments are to a larger...... extent driven by exchange rate fluctuations than in most other advanced countries. The median Icelandic firm reviews its prices every four months and changes them every six months. The main sources of price rigidity and the most commonly used price setting methods are the same as in most other countries....... A second contribution to the literature is our analysis of the nexus between price setting and exchange rate movements, a topic that has attracted surprisingly limited attention in this survey-based literature. A novel aspect of our approach is to base our analysis on a categorisation of firms...

Impact of Stock Market Structure on Intertrade Time and Price Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Ivanov, Plamen Ch.; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

2014-01-01

We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization–a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

Impact of stock market structure on intertrade time and price dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Ivanov, Plamen Ch; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

2014-01-01

We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization-a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

Deregulated power prices: comparison of volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Ying; Flynn, P.C.

2004-01-01

We examine electrical power price variability for 14 deregulated markets. Power price volatility is measured by price velocity, the daily average of the absolute value of price change per hour. Deregulated markets show a wide variability in price velocity. Some price velocity is expected and arises from the daily diurnal price pattern, which differs significantly between markets. Even when the expected daily variability in price is removed, the residual unexpected variability differs between markets. Some deregulated markets, most notably Britain and Spain, show patterns that are predictable and consistent and have low values of unexpected price velocity. These markets create a climate conducive to consumers facing the market through real time pricing and shaping consumption behaviors in response to price changes. Other markets, for example, South Australia and Alberta, have patterns that are inconsistent and irregular, and hence are hard for a customer to interpret; a customer in such a market will have a higher incentive to avoid demand side management and escape risk through hedging mechanisms

Process algebra with timing : real time and discrete time

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baeten, J.C.M.; Middelburg, C.A.; Bergstra, J.A.; Ponse, A.J.; Smolka, S.A.

2001-01-01

We present real time and discrete time versions of ACP with absolute timing and relative timing. The starting-point is a new real time version with absolute timing, called ACPsat, featuring urgent actions and a delay operator. The discrete time versions are conservative extensions of the discrete

Process algebra with timing: Real time and discrete time

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baeten, J.C.M.; Middelburg, C.A.

1999-01-01

We present real time and discrete time versions of ACP with absolute timing and relative timing. The startingpoint is a new real time version with absolute timing, called ACPsat , featuring urgent actions and a delay operator. The discrete time versions are conservative extensions of the discrete

Impact of Rainfall, Sales Method, and Time on Land Prices

OpenAIRE

Stephens, Steve; Schurle, Bryan

2013-01-01

Land prices in Western Kansas are analyzed using regression to estimate the influence of rainfall, sales method, and time of sale. The estimates from regression indicate that land prices decreased about $27 for each range that was farther west which can be converted to about $75 per inch of average rainfall. In addition, the influence of method of sale (private sale or auction) is estimated along with the impact of time of sale. Auction sales prices are approximately $100 higher per acre than...

Real-time radiography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bossi, R.H.; Oien, C.T.

1981-01-01

Real-time radiography is used for imaging both dynamic events and static objects. Fluorescent screens play an important role in converting radiation to light, which is then observed directly or intensified and detected. The radiographic parameters for real-time radiography are similar to conventional film radiography with special emphasis on statistics and magnification. Direct-viewing fluoroscopy uses the human eye as a detector of fluorescent screen light or the light from an intensifier. Remote-viewing systems replace the human observer with a television camera. The remote-viewing systems have many advantages over the direct-viewing conditions such as safety, image enhancement, and the capability to produce permanent records. This report reviews real-time imaging system parameters and components

Optimal real time cost-benefit based demand response with intermittent resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zareen, N.; Mustafa, M.W.; Sultana, U.; Nadia, R.; Khattak, M.A.

2015-01-01

Ever-increasing price of conventional energy resources and related environmental concern enforced to explore alternative energy sources. Inherent uncertainty of power generation and demand being strongly influenced by the electricity market has posed severe challenges for DRPs (Demand Response Programs). Definitely, the success of such uncertain energy systems under new market structures is critically decided by the advancement of innovative technical and financial tools. Recent exponential growth of DG (distributed generations) demanded both the grid reliability and financial cost–benefits analysis for deregulated electricity market stakeholders. Based on the SGT (signaling game theory), the paper presents a novel user-aware demand-management approach where the price are colligated with grid condition uncertainties to manage the peak residential loads. The degree of information disturbances are considered as a key factor for evaluating electricity bidding mechanisms in the presence of independent multi-generation resources and price-elastic demand. A correlation between the cost–benefit price and variable reliability of grid is established under uncertain generation and demand conditions. Impacts of the strategies on load shape, benefit of customers and the reduction of energy consumption are inspected and compared with Time-of-Used based DRPs. Simulation results show that the proposed DRP can significantly reduce or even eliminate peak-hour energy consumption, leading to a substantial raise of revenues with 18% increase in the load reduction and a considerable improvement in system reliability is evidenced. - Highlights: • Proposed an optimal real time cost-benefit based demand response model. • Used signaling game theory for the information disturbances in deregulated market. • Introduced a correlation between the cost–benefit price and variable grid reliability. • Derive robust bidding strategies for utility/customers successful participation. �

Real-time vision systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, R.; Hernandez, J.E.; Lu, Shin-yee [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

1994-11-15

Many industrial and defence applications require an ability to make instantaneous decisions based on sensor input of a time varying process. Such systems are referred to as `real-time systems` because they process and act on data as it occurs in time. When a vision sensor is used in a real-time system, the processing demands can be quite substantial, with typical data rates of 10-20 million samples per second. A real-time Machine Vision Laboratory (MVL) was established in FY94 to extend our years of experience in developing computer vision algorithms to include the development and implementation of real-time vision systems. The laboratory is equipped with a variety of hardware components, including Datacube image acquisition and processing boards, a Sun workstation, and several different types of CCD cameras, including monochrome and color area cameras and analog and digital line-scan cameras. The equipment is reconfigurable for prototyping different applications. This facility has been used to support several programs at LLNL, including O Division`s Peacemaker and Deadeye Projects as well as the CRADA with the U.S. Textile Industry, CAFE (Computer Aided Fabric Inspection). To date, we have successfully demonstrated several real-time applications: bullet tracking, stereo tracking and ranging, and web inspection. This work has been documented in the ongoing development of a real-time software library.

Brownian motion model with stochastic parameters for asset prices

Science.gov (United States)

Ching, Soo Huei; Hin, Pooi Ah

2013-09-01

The Brownian motion model may not be a completely realistic model for asset prices because in real asset prices the drift μ and volatility σ may change over time. Presently we consider a model in which the parameter x = (μ,σ) is such that its value x (t + Δt) at a short time Δt ahead of the present time t depends on the value of the asset price at time t + Δt as well as the present parameter value x(t) and m-1 other parameter values before time t via a conditional distribution. The Malaysian stock prices are used to compare the performance of the Brownian motion model with fixed parameter with that of the model with stochastic parameter.

Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Hui; Liang, Jin-Rong; Zhang, Yun-Xiu

2012-08-01

This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing by a fractional subdiffusive Black-Scholes model. The price of the underlying stock follows a time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion. By a mean self-financing delta-hedging argument, the pricing formula for the European call option in discrete time setting is obtained.

Numerical Methods for Pricing American Options with Time-Fractional PDE Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiqiang Zhou

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we develop a Laplace transform method and a finite difference method for solving American option pricing problem when the change of the option price with time is considered as a fractal transmission system. In this scenario, the option price is governed by a time-fractional partial differential equation (PDE with free boundary. The Laplace transform method is applied to the time-fractional PDE. It then leads to a nonlinear equation for the free boundary (i.e., optimal early exercise boundary function in Laplace space. After numerically finding the solution of the nonlinear equation, the Laplace inversion is used to transform the approximate early exercise boundary into the time space. Finally the approximate price of the American option is obtained. A boundary-searching finite difference method is also proposed to solve the free-boundary time-fractional PDEs for pricing the American options. Numerical examples are carried out to compare the Laplace approach with the finite difference method and it is confirmed that the former approach is much faster than the latter one.

Bayesian Analysis of Bubbles in Asset Prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andras Fulop

2017-10-01

Full Text Available We develop a new model where the dynamic structure of the asset price, after the fundamental value is removed, is subject to two different regimes. One regime reflects the normal period where the asset price divided by the dividend is assumed to follow a mean-reverting process around a stochastic long run mean. The second regime reflects the bubble period with explosive behavior. Stochastic switches between two regimes and non-constant probabilities of exit from the bubble regime are both allowed. A Bayesian learning approach is employed to jointly estimate the latent states and the model parameters in real time. An important feature of our Bayesian method is that we are able to deal with parameter uncertainty and at the same time, to learn about the states and the parameters sequentially, allowing for real time model analysis. This feature is particularly useful for market surveillance. Analysis using simulated data reveals that our method has good power properties for detecting bubbles. Empirical analysis using price-dividend ratios of S&P500 highlights the advantages of our method.

Analysis for Embedded Systems: Experiments with Priced Timed Automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ovatman, Tolga; Brekling, Aske Wiid; Hansen, Michael Reichhardt

2010-01-01

costs of those models. In order to achieve this, a basic model is built using priced timed automata and some resource consumption scenarios are verified. Even though the experiments are performed on small and basic models, we believe we have taken a basis step in showing that it is promising to use...... priced timed automata and Uppaal Cora as a model checking tool in reasoning about resource consumption of embedded systems....

A behavioral asset pricing model with a time-varying second moment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiarella, Carl; He Xuezhong; Wang, Duo

2006-01-01

We develop a simple behavioral asset pricing model with fundamentalists and chartists in order to study price behavior in financial markets when chartists estimate both conditional mean and variance by using a weighted averaging process. Through a stability, bifurcation, and normal form analysis, the market impact of the weighting process and time-varying second moment are examined. It is found that the fundamental price becomes stable (unstable) when the activities from both types of traders are balanced (unbalanced). When the fundamental price becomes unstable, the weighting process leads to different price dynamics, depending on whether the chartists act as either trend followers or contrarians. It is also found that a time-varying second moment of the chartists does not change the stability of the fundamental price, but it does influence the stability of the bifurcations. The bifurcation becomes stable (unstable) when the chartists are more (less) concerned about the market risk characterized by the time-varying second moment. Different routes to complicated price dynamics are also observed. The analysis provides an analytical foundation for the statistical analysis of the corresponding stochastic version of this type of behavioral model

Optimizing Greenhouse Lighting for Advanced Agriculture Based on Real Time Electricity Market Price

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehdi Mahdavian

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The world’s growing demand for food can be met by agricultural technology. Use of artificial light to supplement natural sunlight in greenhouse cultivation is one of the most common techniques to increase greenhouse production of food crops. However, artificial light requires significant electrical energy, which increases the cost of greenhouse production and can reduce profit. This paper models the increments to greenhouse productivity as well as the increases in cost from supplemental electric lighting, in a situation where the greenhouse is one of the elements of a smart grid, a system where the electric energy market is dynamic and prices vary over time. We used our models to calculate the optimum values for supplemental light and the required electrical energy for HPS lamps in the greenhouse environment, using cherry tomato cultivation as a case study crop. We considered two optimization techniques: iterative search (IS and genetic algorithm (GA. The two approaches produced similar results, although the GA method was much faster. Both approaches verify the advantages of using optimal supplemental light in terms of increasing production and hence profit.

Memory controllers for real-time embedded systems predictable and composable real-time systems

CERN Document Server

Akesson, Benny

2012-01-01

  Verification of real-time requirements in systems-on-chip becomes more complex as more applications are integrated. Predictable and composable systems can manage the increasing complexity using formal verification and simulation.  This book explains the concepts of predictability and composability and shows how to apply them to the design and analysis of a memory controller, which is a key component in any real-time system. This book is generally intended for readers interested in Systems-on-Chips with real-time applications.   It is especially well-suited for readers looking to use SDRAM memories in systems with hard or firm real-time requirements. There is a strong focus on real-time concepts, such as predictability and composability, as well as a brief discussion about memory controller architectures for high-performance computing. Readers will learn step-by-step how to go from an unpredictable SDRAM memory, offering highly variable bandwidth and latency, to a predictable and composable shared memory...

Economic information from Smart Meter: Nexus Between Demand Profile and Electricity Retail Price Between Demand Profile and Electricity Retail Price

OpenAIRE

Yu, Yang; Liu, Guangyi; Zhu, Wendong; Wang, Fei; Shu, Bin; Zhang, Kai; Rajagopal, Ram; Astier, Nicolas

2016-01-01

In this paper, we demonstrate that a consumer's marginal system impact is only determined by their demand profile rather than their demand level. Demand profile clustering is identical to cluster consumers according to their marginal impacts on system costs. A profile-based uniform-rate price is economically efficient as real-time pricing. We develop a criteria system to evaluate the economic efficiency of an implemented retail price scheme in a distribution system by comparing profile cluste...

Review of Real-time Electricity Markets for Integrating Distributed Energy Resources and Demand Response

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Qi; Zhang, Chunyu; Ding, Yi

2015-01-01

The high penetration of both Distributed Energy Resources (DER) and Demand Response (DR) in modern power systems requires a sequence of advanced strategies and technologies for maintaining system reliability and flexibility. Real-time electricity markets (RTM) are the nondiscriminatory transaction...... platforms for providing necessary balancing services, where the market clearing (nodal or zonal prices depending on markets) is very close to real time operations of power systems. One of the primary functions of RTMs in modern power systems is establishing an efficient and effective mechanism for small DER...... and DR to participate in balancing market transactions, while handling their meteorological or intermittent characteristics, facilitating asset utilization, and stimulating their active responses. Consequently, RTMs are dedicated to maintaining the flexibility and reliability of power systems. This paper...

Optimum residential load management strategy for real time pricing (RTP) demand response programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lujano-Rojas, Juan M.; Monteiro, Cláudio; Dufo-López, Rodolfo; Bernal-Agustín, José L.

2012-01-01

This paper presents an optimal load management strategy for residential consumers that utilizes the communication infrastructure of the future smart grid. The strategy considers predictions of electricity prices, energy demand, renewable power production, and power-purchase of energy of the consumer in determining the optimal relationship between hourly electricity prices and the use of different household appliances and electric vehicles in a typical smart house. The proposed strategy is illustrated using two study cases corresponding to a house located in Zaragoza (Spain) for a typical day in summer. Results show that the proposed model allows users to control their diary energy consumption and adapt their electricity bills to their actual economical situation. - Highlights: ► This work shows an optimal load management strategy for residential consumers. ► It has been considered the communication infrastructure of the future smart grid. ► A study case shows the optimal utilization of some appliances and electric vehicles. ► Results showed that the proposed model allows users to reduce their electricity bill.

Reassessing the empirical relationship between the oil price and the dollar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coudert, Virginie; Mignon, Valérie

2016-01-01

This paper aims at reassessing the empirical relationship between the real price of oil and the U.S. dollar real effective exchange rate over the 1974–2015 period. We find that changes in both variables are now linked by a negative relationship, going from the dollar exchange rate to the real oil price. However, the same relationship is found positive when ending the sample in the mid-2000s, in line with the previous literature. To understand and investigate this evolution, we rely on a nonlinear, smooth transition regression model in which the oil price-dollar nexus depends on the dynamics followed by the U.S. currency. Our results show that the relationship is negative most of the times but turns positive when the dollar hits very high values, as in the early eighties. - Highlights: •We reassess the relationship between the real oil price and the dollar over the 1974–2015 period. •Changes in the two variables are linked by a negative relationship over the whole period. •The link between both variables is positive over the subsample ending in the mid-2000s. •We estimate a nonlinear model in which the oil price-dollar nexus depends on the evolution the dollar. •The relationship is negative most of the times, except when the dollar hits very high values.

Economic Evaluation for Energy Business Using Real Options Pricing Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, W.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

2001-11-01

Recently, facing the new era of restructuring, privatization, and liberalization the energy industry in the world is changing rapidly, and thus the uncertain factors tend to increase. This would imply that energy-related business is now confronted with new market risks as well as the simple price risks. The traditional investment valuation method using the concept of net present value (NPV) or internal rate of revenue (IRR) might not incorporate the managerial alternatives which enable managers to respond flexibly to the changes in business environment. This study pointed out the problems of the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method when evaluating a certain capital investment in energy industry. As an alternative, the real option pricing method (ROPM) was proposed, which is widely adopted in the field of profit projection for the venture business. In addition, when applying to energy sector the feasibility of ROPM was discussed, and the frameworks and major results of previous related studies were described. For those using the ROPM in real business, I explained the detailed procedures and solutions of ROPM, and introduced the log-transformed binomial model which provides a more efficient solution. In order to verify the usefulness of the ROPM, this study performed an empirical analysis for a virtual construction and operation project of power plant. And, the results from the ROPM was compared to those from the traditional DCF method. Based on the empirical results, the values of various investment opportunities were shown to be high. Therefore, the project not justified in terms of traditional DCF would turn into the project with a positive gross project value, properly reflecting managerial flexibilities inherent in the original project. (author). 58 refs., 32 figs., 33 tabs.

The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors

OpenAIRE

John Y. Campbell; Robert J. Shiller

1986-01-01

A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector autoregressive methods. Three versions of the linearized model, differing in the measure of discount rates, are tested for U. S. time series 1871-1986: versions using real interest rate data, aggregate re...

The pitfalls of capital budgeting : when costs correlate to oil price. Is the real-options approach superior to traditional valuation?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schiozer, R.F. [Getulio Vargas Foundation, Sao Paolo (Brazil). School of Administration de Empresas; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B. [Unicamp, Campinas (Brazil). Center of Petroleum Studies

2007-07-01

Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.

The pitfalls of capital budgeting : when costs correlate to oil price. Is the real-options approach superior to traditional valuation?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schiozer, R.F.; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B.

2007-01-01

Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

Essays in real-time forecasting

OpenAIRE

Liebermann, Joelle

2012-01-01

This thesis contains three essays in the field of real-time econometrics, and more particularlyforecasting.The issue of using data as available in real-time to forecasters, policymakers or financialmarkets is an important one which has only recently been taken on board in the empiricalliterature. Data available and used in real-time are preliminary and differ from ex-postrevised data, and given that data revisions may be quite substantial, the use of latestavailable instead of real-time can s...

Optimal operation strategy of battery energy storage system to real-time electricity price in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2010-01-01

markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system in this paper. Two kinds of BESS, based on polysulfide-bromine (PSB) and vanadium redox (VRB) battery technologies, are studies in the paper. Simulation results show, that the proposed optimal operation strategy is an effective measure to achieve......Since the hourly spot market price is available one day ahead, the price could be transferred to the consumers and they may have some motivations to install an energy storage system in order to save their energy costs. This paper presents an optimal operation strategy for a battery energy storage...

The psychophysiology of real-time financial risk processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, Andrew W; Repin, Dmitry V

2002-04-01

A longstanding controversy in economics and finance is whether financial markets are governed by rational forces or by emotional responses. We study the importance of emotion in the decision-making process of professional securities traders by measuring their physiological characteristics (e.g., skin conductance, blood volume pulse, etc.) during live trading sessions while simultaneously capturing real-time prices from which market events can be detected. In a sample of 10 traders, we find statistically significant differences in mean electrodermal responses during transient market events relative to no-event control periods, and statistically significant mean changes in cardiovascular variables during periods of heightened market volatility relative to normal-volatility control periods. We also observe significant differences in these physiological responses across the 10 traders that may be systematically related to the traders' levels of experience.

The volatility of stock market prices.

Science.gov (United States)

Shiller, R J

1987-01-02

If the volatility of stock market prices is to be understood in terms of the efficient markets hypothesis, then there should be evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. Three indicators of change in true investment value of the aggregate stock market in the United States from 1871 to 1986 are considered: changes in dividends, in real interest rates, and in a direct measure of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution. Although there are some ambiguities in interpreting the evidence, dividend changes appear to contribute very little toward justifying the observed historical volatility of stock prices. The other indicators contribute some, but still most of the volatility of stock market prices appears unexplained.

Product pricing in TAC SCM using adaptive real-time probability of acceptance estimations based on economic regimes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hogenboom, A.C.; Ketter, W.; Dalen, van Jan; Kaymak, U.; Collins, J.; Gupta, Alok

2009-01-01

Dynamic product pricing is a vital, yet non-trivial task in complex supply chains -- especially in case of limited visibility of the market environment. We propose to differentiate product pricing strategies using economic regimes. In our approach, we use economic regimes (characterizing market

Ovation Prime Real-Time

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ovation Prime Real-Time (OPRT) product is a real-time forecast and nowcast model of auroral power and is an operational implementation of the work by Newell et...

A note on the optimal pricing strategy in the discrete-time Geo/Geo/1 queuing system with sojourn time-dependent reward

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Doo Ho Lee

Full Text Available This work studies the optimal pricing strategy in a discrete-time Geo/Geo/1 queuing system under the sojourn time-dependent reward. We consider two types of pricing schemes. The first one is called the ex-post payment scheme where the server charges a price that is proportional to the time a customer spends in the system, and the second one is called ex-ante payment scheme where the server charges a flat price for all services. In each pricing scheme, a departing customer receives the reward that is inversely proportional to his/her sojourn time. The server should make the optimal pricing decisions in order to maximize its expected profits per time unit in each pricing scheme. This work also investigates customer's equilibrium joining or balking behavior under server's optimal pricing strategy. Numerical experiments are also conducted to validate our analysis. Keywords: Optimal pricing, Equilibrium behavior, Geo/Geo/1 queue, Sojourn time-dependent reward

Value of time: Speeding behavior and gasoline prices

OpenAIRE

Wolff, Hendrik

2012-01-01

Do drivers reduce speeds when gasoline prices are high? Previous research investigating this energy conservation hypothesis produced mixed results. We take a fresh look at the data and estimate a significant negative relationship between speeding and gasoline prices. This presents a new methodology of deriving the 'Value of Time' (VOT) based on the intensive margin (previous VOT studies compare across the extensive margin) which has important advantages to circumvent potential omitted variabl...

VERSE - Virtual Equivalent Real-time Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yang; Martin, Bryan J.; Villaume, Nathaniel

2005-01-01

Distributed real-time simulations provide important timing validation and hardware in the- loop results for the spacecraft flight software development cycle. Occasionally, the need for higher fidelity modeling and more comprehensive debugging capabilities - combined with a limited amount of computational resources - calls for a non real-time simulation environment that mimics the real-time environment. By creating a non real-time environment that accommodates simulations and flight software designed for a multi-CPU real-time system, we can save development time, cut mission costs, and reduce the likelihood of errors. This paper presents such a solution: Virtual Equivalent Real-time Simulation Environment (VERSE). VERSE turns the real-time operating system RTAI (Real-time Application Interface) into an event driven simulator that runs in virtual real time. Designed to keep the original RTAI architecture as intact as possible, and therefore inheriting RTAI's many capabilities, VERSE was implemented with remarkably little change to the RTAI source code. This small footprint together with use of the same API allows users to easily run the same application in both real-time and virtual time environments. VERSE has been used to build a workstation testbed for NASA's Space Interferometry Mission (SIM PlanetQuest) instrument flight software. With its flexible simulation controls and inexpensive setup and replication costs, VERSE will become an invaluable tool in future mission development.

Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim; Diebold, Francis X.

Using a unique high-frequency futures dataset, we characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. We find that news produces conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics...... are linked to fundamentals. Equity markets, moreover, react differently to news depending on the stage of the business cycle, which explains the low correlation between stock and bond returns when averaged over the cycle. Hence our results qualify earlier work suggesting that bond markets react most strongly...... to macroeconomic news; in particular, when conditioning on the state of the economy, the equity and foreign exchange markets appear equally responsive. Finally, we also document important contemporaneous links across all markets and countries, even after controlling for the effects of macroeconomic news....

A Distribution-class Locational Marginal Price (DLMP) Index for Enhanced Distribution Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Akinbode, Oluwaseyi Wemimo

The smart grid initiative is the impetus behind changes that are expected to culminate into an enhanced distribution system with the communication and control infrastructure to support advanced distribution system applications and resources such as distributed generation, energy storage systems, and price responsive loads. This research proposes a distribution-class analog of the transmission LMP (DLMP) as an enabler of the advanced applications of the enhanced distribution system. The DLMP is envisioned as a control signal that can incentivize distribution system resources to behave optimally in a manner that benefits economic efficiency and system reliability and that can optimally couple the transmission and the distribution systems. The DLMP is calculated from a two-stage optimization problem; a transmission system OPF and a distribution system OPF. An iterative framework that ensures accurate representation of the distribution system's price sensitive resources for the transmission system problem and vice versa is developed and its convergence problem is discussed. As part of the DLMP calculation framework, a DCOPF formulation that endogenously captures the effect of real power losses is discussed. The formulation uses piecewise linear functions to approximate losses. This thesis explores, with theoretical proofs, the breakdown of the loss approximation technique when non-positive DLMPs/LMPs occur and discusses a mixed integer linear programming formulation that corrects the breakdown. The DLMP is numerically illustrated in traditional and enhanced distribution systems and its superiority to contemporary pricing mechanisms is demonstrated using price responsive loads. Results show that the impact of the inaccuracy of contemporary pricing schemes becomes significant as flexible resources increase. At high elasticity, aggregate load consumption deviated from the optimal consumption by up to about 45 percent when using a flat or time-of-use rate. Individual load

Dynamics Model Applied to Pricing Options with Uncertain Volatility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorella Fatone

2012-01-01

model is proposed. The data used to test the calibration problem included observations of asset prices over a finite set of (known equispaced discrete time values. Statistical tests were used to estimate the statistical significance of the two parameters of the Black-Scholes model: the volatility and the drift. The effects of these estimates on the option pricing problem were investigated. In particular, the pricing of an option with uncertain volatility in the Black-Scholes framework was revisited, and a statistical significance was associated with the price intervals determined using the Black-Scholes-Barenblatt equations. Numerical experiments involving synthetic and real data were presented. The real data considered were the daily closing values of the S&P500 index and the associated European call and put option prices in the year 2005. The method proposed here for calibrating the Black-Scholes dynamics model could be extended to other science and engineering models that may be expressed in terms of stochastic dynamical systems.

A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shafiee, Shahriar; Topal, Erkan

2010-01-01

This paper reviews a long-term trend of worldwide fossil fuel prices in the future by introducing a new method to forecast oil, natural gas and coal prices. The first section of this study analyses the global fossil fuel market and the historical trend of real and nominal fossil fuel prices from 1950 to 2008. Historical fossil fuel price analysis shows that coal prices are decreasing, while natural gas prices are increasing. The second section reviews previously available price modelling techniques and proposes a new comprehensive version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model. The third section uses the new model to forecast fossil fuel prices in nominal and real terms from 2009 to 2018. The new model follows the extrapolation of the historical sinusoidal trend of nominal and real fossil fuel prices. The historical trends show an increase in nominal/real oil and natural gas prices plus nominal coal prices, as well as a decrease in real coal prices. Furthermore, the new model forecasts that oil, natural gas and coal will stay in jump for the next couple of years and after that they will revert back to the long-term trend until 2018. (author)

ISTTOK real-time architecture

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carvalho, Ivo S., E-mail: ivoc@ipfn.ist.utl.pt; Duarte, Paulo; Fernandes, Horácio; Valcárcel, Daniel F.; Carvalho, Pedro J.; Silva, Carlos; Duarte, André S.; Neto, André; Sousa, Jorge; Batista, António J.N.; Hekkert, Tiago; Carvalho, Bernardo B.

2014-03-15

Highlights: • All real-time diagnostics and actuators were integrated in the same control platform. • A 100 μs control cycle was achieved under the MARTe framework. • Time-windows based control with several event-driven control strategies implemented. • AC discharges with exception handling on iron core flux saturation. • An HTML discharge configuration was developed for configuring the MARTe system. - Abstract: The ISTTOK tokamak was upgraded with a plasma control system based on the Advanced Telecommunications Computing Architecture (ATCA) standard. This control system was designed to improve the discharge stability and to extend the operational space to the alternate plasma current (AC) discharges as part of the ISTTOK scientific program. In order to accomplish these objectives all ISTTOK diagnostics and actuators relevant for real-time operation were integrated in the control system. The control system was programmed in C++ over the Multi-threaded Application Real-Time executor (MARTe) which provides, among other features, a real-time scheduler, an interrupt handler, an intercommunications interface between code blocks and a clearly bounded interface with the external devices. As a complement to the MARTe framework, the BaseLib2 library provides the foundations for the data, code introspection and also a Hypertext Transfer Protocol (HTTP) server service. Taking advantage of the modular nature of MARTe, the algorithms of each diagnostic data processing, discharge timing, context switch, control and actuators output reference generation, run on well-defined blocks of code named Generic Application Module (GAM). This approach allows reusability of the code, simplified simulation, replacement or editing without changing the remaining GAMs. The ISTTOK control system GAMs run sequentially each 100 μs cycle on an Intel{sup ®} Q8200 4-core processor running at 2.33 GHz located in the ATCA crate. Two boards (inside the ATCA crate) with 32 analog

ISTTOK real-time architecture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carvalho, Ivo S.; Duarte, Paulo; Fernandes, Horácio; Valcárcel, Daniel F.; Carvalho, Pedro J.; Silva, Carlos; Duarte, André S.; Neto, André; Sousa, Jorge; Batista, António J.N.; Hekkert, Tiago; Carvalho, Bernardo B.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • All real-time diagnostics and actuators were integrated in the same control platform. • A 100 μs control cycle was achieved under the MARTe framework. • Time-windows based control with several event-driven control strategies implemented. • AC discharges with exception handling on iron core flux saturation. • An HTML discharge configuration was developed for configuring the MARTe system. - Abstract: The ISTTOK tokamak was upgraded with a plasma control system based on the Advanced Telecommunications Computing Architecture (ATCA) standard. This control system was designed to improve the discharge stability and to extend the operational space to the alternate plasma current (AC) discharges as part of the ISTTOK scientific program. In order to accomplish these objectives all ISTTOK diagnostics and actuators relevant for real-time operation were integrated in the control system. The control system was programmed in C++ over the Multi-threaded Application Real-Time executor (MARTe) which provides, among other features, a real-time scheduler, an interrupt handler, an intercommunications interface between code blocks and a clearly bounded interface with the external devices. As a complement to the MARTe framework, the BaseLib2 library provides the foundations for the data, code introspection and also a Hypertext Transfer Protocol (HTTP) server service. Taking advantage of the modular nature of MARTe, the algorithms of each diagnostic data processing, discharge timing, context switch, control and actuators output reference generation, run on well-defined blocks of code named Generic Application Module (GAM). This approach allows reusability of the code, simplified simulation, replacement or editing without changing the remaining GAMs. The ISTTOK control system GAMs run sequentially each 100 μs cycle on an Intel ® Q8200 4-core processor running at 2.33 GHz located in the ATCA crate. Two boards (inside the ATCA crate) with 32 analog

Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papapetrou, E.

2001-01-01

Using a multivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) approach, this paper attempts to shed light into the dynamic relationship among oil prices, real stock prices, interest rates, real economic activity and employment for Greece. The empirical evidence suggests that oil price changes affect real economic activity and employment. Oil prices are important in explaining stock price movements. Stock returns do not lead to changes in real activity and employment

33 CFR 137.75 - The relationship of the purchase price to the value of the facility and the real property on...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... market value of the facility and real property if oil was not present or likely present. (b) If the persons conclude that the purchase price does not reasonably reflect the fair market value of that... or not the differential in purchase price and fair market value is due to the presence or likely...

The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on real GDP in Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Taghi Khosravi Larijani

2013-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on GDP have been investigated by co-integration analysis in Iran economy during the period 1960-2010. We used Hodrick-Prescott filtering to separate positive shocks from negative shocks. The results showed that in long run the negative shocks have stronger effects on output than positive ones that can have damaging repercussions on economic growth. The findings have practical policy implications for decision makers in the area of macroeconomic planning. The use of stabilization and savings funds and diversification of the real sector seems crucial to minimize the harmful effects of oil booms and busts

Time variation in European carbon pass-through rates in electricity futures prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huisman, Ronald; Kiliç, Mehtap

2015-01-01

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme is a means to price emission allowances. Electricity market prices should reflect these market prices of emission allowances as they are a cost factor for power producers. The pass-through rate is the fraction of the emission allowance price that is passed through to electricity market prices. It is often measured and presented as an average or a fixed estimate over some time period. However, we expect that the pass-through rates should actually vary over time as electricity supply curves reflect the marginal costs of different producers that differ in emission intensity. We apply a Kalman Filter approach to observe pass-through rates in Germany and U.K. and find strong support for time varying instead of fixed pass-through rates. Although policy makers are interested in the impact of a policy on average, our results indicate that one needs to be careful with the time-frame over which pass-through rates are measured for policy evaluation, as an incorrect chosen evaluation period could cause an under- or overestimation of the pass-through rate. In addition, our model helps to provide policy makers with insight in the development of pass-through rates when market circumstances change with respect to power production. - Highlights: • We analyse the time-variation of the emission pass-through rate in power prices. • We examine historical futures prices for Germany and the U.K. • We test the hypothesis by using the Kalman Filter methodology. • Strong support is found that pass-through rates vary over time. • The chosen time-frame for pass-through rates is important for policy evaluation.

Using time series structural characteristics to analyze grain prices in food insecure countries

Science.gov (United States)

Davenport, Frank; Funk, Chris

2015-01-01

Two components of food security monitoring are accurate forecasts of local grain prices and the ability to identify unusual price behavior. We evaluated a method that can both facilitate forecasts of cross-country grain price data and identify dissimilarities in price behavior across multiple markets. This method, characteristic based clustering (CBC), identifies similarities in multiple time series based on structural characteristics in the data. Here, we conducted a simulation experiment to determine if CBC can be used to improve the accuracy of maize price forecasts. We then compared forecast accuracies among clustered and non-clustered price series over a rolling time horizon. We found that the accuracy of forecasts on clusters of time series were equal to or worse than forecasts based on individual time series. However, in the following experiment we found that CBC was still useful for price analysis. We used the clusters to explore the similarity of price behavior among Kenyan maize markets. We found that price behavior in the isolated markets of Mandera and Marsabit has become increasingly dissimilar from markets in other Kenyan cities, and that these dissimilarities could not be explained solely by geographic distance. The structural isolation of Mandera and Marsabit that we find in this paper is supported by field studies on food security and market integration in Kenya. Our results suggest that a market with a unique price series (as measured by structural characteristics that differ from neighboring markets) may lack market integration and food security.

Distributed Coordination of Electric Vehicle Charging in a Community Microgrid Considering Real-Time Price

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Chendan; Schaltz, Erik; Quintero, Juan Carlos Vasquez

2016-01-01

The predictable increasing adoption of EV by residential users imposes the necessity of Electric Vehicle charging coordination, in order to charge effectively while minimizing the impact on the grid. In this paper, a two-stage distributed coordination algorithm for electric vehicle charging...... management in a community microgrid is proposed. Each local EV charging controller is taken as an agent, which can manage the charging to achieve the optimization of the whole community by communicating in a sparse network. The proposed algorithm aims at optimizing real-time, which manages the charging...

Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

OpenAIRE

Siddiqui, Afzal S.

2003-01-01

The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium mo...

Enhanced least squares Monte Carlo method for real-time decision optimizations for evolving natural hazards

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Anders, Annett; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

The present paper aims at enhancing a solution approach proposed by Anders & Nishijima (2011) to real-time decision problems in civil engineering. The approach takes basis in the Least Squares Monte Carlo method (LSM) originally proposed by Longstaff & Schwartz (2001) for computing American option...... prices. In Anders & Nishijima (2011) the LSM is adapted for a real-time operational decision problem; however it is found that further improvement is required in regard to the computational efficiency, in order to facilitate it for practice. This is the focus in the present paper. The idea behind...... the improvement of the computational efficiency is to “best utilize” the least squares method; i.e. least squares method is applied for estimating the expected utility for terminal decisions, conditional on realizations of underlying random phenomena at respective times in a parametric way. The implementation...

Optimal Conditional Reachability for Multi-Priced Timed Automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Rasmussen, Jacob Illum

2005-01-01

In this paper, we prove decidability of the optimal conditional reachability problem for multi-priced timed automata, an extension of timed automata with multiple cost variables evolving according to given rates for each location. More precisely, we consider the problem of determining the minimal...

Pricing of electricity in a time of change - some key issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mostert, W.

1995-01-01

The paper covers four topics: (I) what does full cost coverage mean in the Eastern European power sector, (II) LRMC (Long Run Marginal Cost) pricing in regulated utilities versus free market prices; (III) limits to the internalization of external costs in fuel pricing, (IV) pricing of IPPs (Independent Power Producer). The paper argues that the tariff which allows full cost coverage in the Eastern European power sector should be defined as the minimum tariff which allows 30% self-financing of investments and a rate of return of at least 5% on invested assets. The appropriate level of self-financing relates to the appropriate capital structure of the company; the rate of return to the ability to attract finance in the long run. During the last twenty years there has been general consensus among power economists that the application of the LRMC pricing principle for the setting of tariffs was the best principle to ensure efficiency on both the demand as well as the supply side. In free markets involving TPA (Third Party Access) and spot markets, that principle can no longer be applied. In times of scarcity, prices will be above LMRC; in times of surplus capacity below LRMC. Economists have argued for years that external costs and benefits have to be ''internalized'' in tariffs and prices in order to provide consumers and investors with the right pricing principles

A real-time architecture for time-aware agents.

Science.gov (United States)

Prouskas, Konstantinos-Vassileios; Pitt, Jeremy V

2004-06-01

This paper describes the specification and implementation of a new three-layer time-aware agent architecture. This architecture is designed for applications and environments where societies of humans and agents play equally active roles, but interact and operate in completely different time frames. The architecture consists of three layers: the April real-time run-time (ART) layer, the time aware layer (TAL), and the application agents layer (AAL). The ART layer forms the underlying real-time agent platform. An original online, real-time, dynamic priority-based scheduling algorithm is described for scheduling the computation time of agent processes, and it is shown that the algorithm's O(n) complexity and scalable performance are sufficient for application in real-time domains. The TAL layer forms an abstraction layer through which human and agent interactions are temporally unified, that is, handled in a common way irrespective of their temporal representation and scale. A novel O(n2) interaction scheduling algorithm is described for predicting and guaranteeing interactions' initiation and completion times. The time-aware predicting component of a workflow management system is also presented as an instance of the AAL layer. The described time-aware architecture addresses two key challenges in enabling agents to be effectively configured and applied in environments where humans and agents play equally active roles. It provides flexibility and adaptability in its real-time mechanisms while placing them under direct agent control, and it temporally unifies human and agent interactions.

Towards Real-Time Argumentation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vicente JULIÁN

2016-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we deal with the problem of real-time coordination with the more general approach of reaching real-time agreements in MAS. Concretely, this work proposes a real-time argumentation framework in an attempt to provide agents with the ability of engaging in argumentative dialogues and come with a solution for their underlying agreement process within a bounded period of time. The framework has been implemented and evaluated in the domain of a customer support application. Concretely, we consider a society of agents that act on behalf of a group of technicians that must solve problems in a Technology Management Centre (TMC within a bounded time. This centre controls every process implicated in the provision of technological and customer support services to private or public organisations by means of a call centre. The contract signed between the TCM and the customer establishes penalties if the specified time is exceeded.

Real-time PCR in virology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mackay, Ian M; Arden, Katherine E; Nitsche, Andreas

2002-03-15

The use of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in molecular diagnostics has increased to the point where it is now accepted as the gold standard for detecting nucleic acids from a number of origins and it has become an essential tool in the research laboratory. Real-time PCR has engendered wider acceptance of the PCR due to its improved rapidity, sensitivity, reproducibility and the reduced risk of carry-over contamination. There are currently five main chemistries used for the detection of PCR product during real-time PCR. These are the DNA binding fluorophores, the 5' endonuclease, adjacent linear and hairpin oligoprobes and the self-fluorescing amplicons, which are described in detail. We also discuss factors that have restricted the development of multiplex real-time PCR as well as the role of real-time PCR in quantitating nucleic acids. Both amplification hardware and the fluorogenic detection chemistries have evolved rapidly as the understanding of real-time PCR has developed and this review aims to update the scientist on the current state of the art. We describe the background, advantages and limitations of real-time PCR and we review the literature as it applies to virus detection in the routine and research laboratory in order to focus on one of the many areas in which the application of real-time PCR has provided significant methodological benefits and improved patient outcomes. However, the technology discussed has been applied to other areas of microbiology as well as studies of gene expression and genetic disease.

Controlling Price-Responsive Heat Pumps for Overload Elimination in Distribution Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Csetvei, Zsuzsa; Østergaard, Jacob; Nyeng, Preben

2011-01-01

This paper investigates the possibility of applying electric heat pumps with the control-by-price-concept in order to avoid overload in a local distribution system. The proposed control algorithm is based upon a centrally dispatched real-time market price, reflecting the state of a larger power...... system, and is extended with a local price control for overload elimination on the corresponding feeder. The paper presents the mathematical models of a two-node system with price-responsive heat pumps, the chosen methodology of the central price calculation, and the proposed local feedback control...

A Heterogeneous Agent Model of Asspet Price with Three Time Delays

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akio Matsumoto

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper considers a continuous-time heterogeneous agent model ofa ...nancial market with one risky asset, two types of agents (i.e., thefundamentalists and the chartists, and three time delays. The chartistdemand is determined through a nonlinear function of the di¤erence be-tween the current price and a weighted moving average of the delayedprices whereas the fundamentalist demand is governed by the di¤erencebetween the current price and the fundamental value. The asset price dy-namics is described by a nonlinear delay di¤erential equation. Two mainresults are analytically and numerically shown:(i the delay destabilizes the market price and generates cyclic oscillationsaround the equilibrium;(ii under multiple delays, stability loss and gain repeatedly occurs as alength of the delay increases.

Real-Time Market Concept Architecture for EcoGrid EU—A Prototype for European Smart Grids

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ding, Yi; Pineda Morente, Salvador; Nyeng, Preben

2014-01-01

Industrialized countries are increasingly committed to move towards a low carbon generating mix by increasing the penetration of renewable generation. Additionally, the Development in communication technologies will allow small end-consumers and small-scale distributed energy resources (DER......) to participate in electricity markets. Current electricity markets need to be tailored to incorporate these changes regarding how electricity will be generated and consumed in the future. The EcoGrid EU is a large-scale EU-funded project, which establishes the first prototype of the future European intelligent...... grids. In this project, small-scale DERs and small end-consumers can actively participate in a new real-time electricity market by responding to 5-min real time electricity prices. In this way, the market operator will also obtain additional balancing power to cancel out the production variation...

Real time programming environment for Windows

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

LaBelle, D.R. [LaBelle (Dennis R.), Clifton Park, NY (United States)

1998-04-01

This document provides a description of the Real Time Programming Environment (RTProE). RTProE tools allow a programmer to create soft real time projects under general, multi-purpose operating systems. The basic features necessary for real time applications are provided by RTProE, leaving the programmer free to concentrate efforts on his specific project. The current version supports Microsoft Windows{trademark} 95 and NT. The tasks of real time synchronization and communication with other programs are handled by RTProE. RTProE includes a generic method for connecting a graphical user interface (GUI) to allow real time control and interaction with the programmer`s product. Topics covered in this paper include real time performance issues, portability, details of shared memory management, code scheduling, application control, Operating System specific concerns and the use of Computer Aided Software Engineering (CASE) tools. The development of RTProE is an important step in the expansion of the real time programming community. The financial costs associated with using the system are minimal. All source code for RTProE has been made publicly available. Any person with access to a personal computer, Windows 95 or NT, and C or FORTRAN compilers can quickly enter the world of real time modeling and simulation.

Real-time fetal ECG system design using embedded microprocessors

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer-Baese, Uwe; Muddu, Harikrishna; Schinhaerl, Sebastian; Kumm, Martin; Zipf, Peter

2016-05-01

The emphasis of this project lies in the development and evaluation of new robust and high fidelity fetal electrocardiogram (FECG) systems to determine the fetal heart rate (FHR). Recently several powerful algorithms have been suggested to improve the FECG fidelity. Until now it is unknown if these algorithms allow a real-time processing, can be used in mobile systems (low power), and which algorithm produces the best error rate for a given system configuration. In this work we have developed high performance, low power microprocessor-based biomedical systems that allow a fair comparison of proposed, state-of-the-art FECG algorithms. We will evaluate different soft-core microprocessors and compare these solutions to other commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) hardcore solutions in terms of price, size, power, and speed.

An In-Home Digital Network Architecture for Real-Time and Non-Real-Time Communication

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scholten, Johan; Jansen, P.G.; Hanssen, F.T.Y.; Hattink, Tjalling

2002-01-01

This paper describes an in-home digital network architecture that supports both real-time and non-real-time communication. The architecture deploys a distributed token mechanism to schedule communication streams and to offer guaranteed quality-ofservice. Essentially, the token mechanism prevents

MARTe: A Multiplatform Real-Time Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Neto, André C.; Sartori, Filippo; Piccolo, Fabio; Vitelli, Riccardo; De Tommasi, Gianmaria; Zabeo, Luca; Barbalace, Antonio; Fernandes, Horacio; Valcarcel, Daniel F.; Batista, Antonio J. N.

2010-04-01

Development of real-time applications is usually associated with nonportable code targeted at specific real-time operating systems. The boundary between hardware drivers, system services, and user code is commonly not well defined, making the development in the target host significantly difficult. The Multithreaded Application Real-Time executor (MARTe) is a framework built over a multiplatform library that allows the execution of the same code in different operating systems. The framework provides the high-level interfaces with hardware, external configuration programs, and user interfaces, assuring at the same time hard real-time performances. End-users of the framework are required to define and implement algorithms inside a well-defined block of software, named Generic Application Module (GAM), that is executed by the real-time scheduler. Each GAM is reconfigurable with a set of predefined configuration meta-parameters and interchanges information using a set of data pipes that are provided as inputs and required as output. Using these connections, different GAMs can be chained either in series or parallel. GAMs can be developed and debugged in a non-real-time system and, only once the robustness of the code and correctness of the algorithm are verified, deployed to the real-time system. The software also supplies a large set of utilities that greatly ease the interaction and debugging of a running system. Among the most useful are a highly efficient real-time logger, HTTP introspection of real-time objects, and HTTP remote configuration. MARTe is currently being used to successfully drive the plasma vertical stabilization controller on the largest magnetic confinement fusion device in the world, with a control loop cycle of 50 ?s and a jitter under 1 ?s. In this particular project, MARTe is used with the Real-Time Application Interface (RTAI)/Linux operating system exploiting the new ?86 multicore processors technology.

Real-Time and Real-Fast Performance of General-Purpose and Real-Time Operating Systems in Multithreaded Physical Simulation of Complex Mechanical Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Garre

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Physical simulation is a valuable tool in many fields of engineering for the tasks of design, prototyping, and testing. General-purpose operating systems (GPOS are designed for real-fast tasks, such as offline simulation of complex physical models that should finish as soon as possible. Interfacing hardware at a given rate (as in a hardware-in-the-loop test requires instead maximizing time determinism, for which real-time operating systems (RTOS are designed. In this paper, real-fast and real-time performance of RTOS and GPOS are compared when simulating models of high complexity with large time steps. This type of applications is usually present in the automotive industry and requires a good trade-off between real-fast and real-time performance. The performance of an RTOS and a GPOS is compared by running a tire model scalable on the number of degrees-of-freedom and parallel threads. The benchmark shows that the GPOS present better performance in real-fast runs but worse in real-time due to nonexplicit task switches and to the latency associated with interprocess communication (IPC and task switch.

GNSS global real-time augmentation positioning: Real-time precise satellite clock estimation, prototype system construction and performance analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Liang; Zhao, Qile; Hu, Zhigang; Jiang, Xinyuan; Geng, Changjiang; Ge, Maorong; Shi, Chuang

2018-01-01

Lots of ambiguities in un-differenced (UD) model lead to lower calculation efficiency, which isn't appropriate for the high-frequency real-time GNSS clock estimation, like 1 Hz. Mixed differenced model fusing UD pseudo-range and epoch-differenced (ED) phase observations has been introduced into real-time clock estimation. In this contribution, we extend the mixed differenced model for realizing multi-GNSS real-time clock high-frequency updating and a rigorous comparison and analysis on same conditions are performed to achieve the best real-time clock estimation performance taking the efficiency, accuracy, consistency and reliability into consideration. Based on the multi-GNSS real-time data streams provided by multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) and Wuhan University, GPS + BeiDou + Galileo global real-time augmentation positioning prototype system is designed and constructed, including real-time precise orbit determination, real-time precise clock estimation, real-time Precise Point Positioning (RT-PPP) and real-time Standard Point Positioning (RT-SPP). The statistical analysis of the 6 h-predicted real-time orbits shows that the root mean square (RMS) in radial direction is about 1-5 cm for GPS, Beidou MEO and Galileo satellites and about 10 cm for Beidou GEO and IGSO satellites. Using the mixed differenced estimation model, the prototype system can realize high-efficient real-time satellite absolute clock estimation with no constant clock-bias and can be used for high-frequency augmentation message updating (such as 1 Hz). The real-time augmentation message signal-in-space ranging error (SISRE), a comprehensive accuracy of orbit and clock and effecting the users' actual positioning performance, is introduced to evaluate and analyze the performance of GPS + BeiDou + Galileo global real-time augmentation positioning system. The statistical analysis of real-time augmentation message SISRE is about 4-7 cm for GPS, whlile 10 cm for Beidou IGSO/MEO, Galileo and about 30 cm

Electricity market price volatility: The case of Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zareipour, Hamidreza; Bhattacharya, Kankar; Canizares, Claudio A.

2007-01-01

Price volatility analysis has been reported in the literature for most competitive electricity markets around the world. However, no studies have been published yet that quantify price volatility in the Ontario electricity market, which is the focus of the present paper. In this paper, a comparative volatility analysis is conducted for the Ontario market and its neighboring electricity markets. Volatility indices are developed based on historical volatility and price velocity concepts, previously applied to other electricity market prices, and employed in the present work. The analysis is carried out in two scenarios: in the first scenario, the volatility indices are determined for the entire price time series. In the second scenario, the price time series are broken up into 24 time series for each of the 24 h and volatility indices are calculated for each specific hour separately. The volatility indices are also applied to the locational marginal prices of several pricing points in the New England, New York, and PJM electricity markets. The outcomes reveal that price volatility is significantly higher in Ontario than the three studied neighboring electricity markets. Furthermore, comparison of the results of this study with similar findings previously published for 15 other electricity markets demonstrates that the Ontario electricity market is one of the most volatile electricity markets world-wide. This high volatility is argued to be associated with the fact that Ontario is a single-settlement, real-time market

Scalable Real-Time Negotiation Toolkit

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lesser, Victor

2004-01-01

... to implement an adaptive distributed sensor network. These activities involved the development of a distributed soft, real-time heuristic resource allocation protocol, the development of a domain-independent soft, real time agent architecture...

Optimal Infinite Runs in One-Clock Priced Timed Automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

David, Alexandre; Ejsing-Duun, Daniel; Fontani, Lisa

We address the problem of finding an infinite run with the optimal cost-time ratio in a one-clock priced timed automaton and pro- vide an algorithmic solution. Through refinements of the quotient graph obtained by strong time-abstracting bisimulation partitioning, we con- struct a graph with time...

Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Kossmeier, Stephan; Obersteiner, Michael

2004-01-01

This paper studies the forecasting abilities of a battery of univariate models on hourly electricity spot prices, using data from the Leipzig Power Exchange. The specifications studied include autoregressive models, autoregressive-moving average models and unobserved component models. The results show that specifications, where each hour of the day is modelled separately present uniformly better forecasting properties than specifications for the whole time-series, and that the inclusion of simple probabilistic processes for the arrival of extreme price events can lead to improvements in the forecasting abilities of univariate models for electricity spot prices. (Author)

Financial planning and pricing strategy of NEC-AD (BG)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kynev, K.

1994-01-01

Methods for power pricing under market economy conditions are proposed from the point of view of financial planning. It is completely consistent with state regulation principle based on power supply costs. The main assumption is that instead of fixing prices for particular time periods, a long-term pricing strategy has to be developed. In this way, within the given macro- and micro-economical frames, certain strategical and tactical financial results can be achieved. The methods are worked out based on a real example. 13 tabs. (author)

Model Checking Real-Time Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bouyer, Patricia; Fahrenberg, Uli; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

2018-01-01

This chapter surveys timed automata as a formalism for model checking real-time systems. We begin with introducing the model, as an extension of finite-state automata with real-valued variables for measuring time. We then present the main model-checking results in this framework, and give a hint...

Modular specification of real-time systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Inal, Recep

1994-01-01

Duration Calculus, a real-time interval logic, has been embedded in the Z specification language to provide a notation for real-time systems that combines the modularisation and abstraction facilities of Z with a logic suitable for reasoning about real-time properties. In this article the notation...

Hard Real-Time Networking on Firewire

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhang, Yuchen; Orlic, Bojan; Visser, Peter; Broenink, Jan

2005-01-01

This paper investigates the possibility of using standard, low-cost, widely used FireWire as a new generation fieldbus medium for real-time distributed control applications. A real-time software subsys- tem, RT-FireWire was designed that can, in combination with Linux-based real-time operating

Multiprocessor scheduling for real-time systems

CERN Document Server

Baruah, Sanjoy; Buttazzo, Giorgio

2015-01-01

This book provides a comprehensive overview of both theoretical and pragmatic aspects of resource-allocation and scheduling in multiprocessor and multicore hard-real-time systems.  The authors derive new, abstract models of real-time tasks that capture accurately the salient features of real application systems that are to be implemented on multiprocessor platforms, and identify rules for mapping application systems onto the most appropriate models.  New run-time multiprocessor scheduling algorithms are presented, which are demonstrably better than those currently used, both in terms of run-time efficiency and tractability of off-line analysis.  Readers will benefit from a new design and analysis framework for multiprocessor real-time systems, which will translate into a significantly enhanced ability to provide formally verified, safety-critical real-time systems at a significantly lower cost.

Synthetic river flow time series generator for dispatch and spot price forecast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flores, R.A.

2007-01-01

Decision-making in electricity markets is complicated by uncertainties in demand growth, power supplies and fuel prices. In Peru, where the electrical power system is highly dependent on water resources at dams and river flows, hydrological uncertainties play a primary role in planning, price and dispatch forecast. This paper proposed a signal processing method for generating new synthetic river flow time series as a support for planning and spot market price forecasting. River flow time series are natural phenomena representing a continuous-time domain process. As an alternative synthetic representation of the original river flow time series, this proposed signal processing method preserves correlations, basic statistics and seasonality. It takes into account deterministic, periodic and non periodic components such as those due to the El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The new synthetic time series has many correlations with the original river flow time series, rendering it suitable for possible replacement of the classical method of sorting historical river flow time series. As a dispatch and planning approach to spot pricing, the proposed method offers higher accuracy modeling by decomposing the signal into deterministic, periodic, non periodic and stochastic sub signals. 4 refs., 4 tabs., 13 figs

Electricity Price Forecasting Based on AOSVR and Outlier Detection

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zhou Dianmin; Gao Lin; Gao Feng

2005-01-01

Electricity price is of the first consideration for all the participants in electric power market and its characteristics are related to both market mechanism and variation in the behaviors of market participants. It is necessary to build a real-time price forecasting model with adaptive capability; and because there are outliers in the price data, they should be detected and filtrated in training the forecasting model by regression method. In view of these points, this paper presents an electricity price forecasting method based on accurate on-line support vector regression (AOSVR) and outlier detection. Numerical testing results show that the method is effective in forecasting the electricity prices in electric power market.

Jump point detection for real estate investment success

Science.gov (United States)

Hui, Eddie C. M.; Yu, Carisa K. W.; Ip, Wai-Cheung

2010-03-01

In the literature, studies on real estate market were mainly concentrating on the relation between property price and some key factors. The trend of the real estate market is a major concern. It is believed that changes in trend are signified by some jump points in the property price series. Identifying such jump points reveals important findings that enable policy-makers to look forward. However, not all jump points are observable from the plot of the series. This paper looks into the trend and introduces a new approach to the framework for real estate investment success. The main purpose of this paper is to detect jump points in the time series of some housing price indices and stock price index in Hong Kong by applying the wavelet analysis. The detected jump points reflect to some significant political issues and economic collapse. Moreover, the relations among properties of different classes and between stocks and properties are examined. It can be shown from the empirical result that a lead-lag effect happened between the prices of large-size property and those of small/medium-size property. However, there is no apparent relation or consistent lead in terms of change point measure between property price and stock price. This may be due to the fact that globalization effect has more impact on the stock price than the property price.

Prototyping real-time systems

OpenAIRE

Clynch, Gary

1994-01-01

The traditional software development paradigm, the waterfall life cycle model, is defective when used for developing real-time systems. This thesis puts forward an executable prototyping approach for the development of real-time systems. A prototyping system is proposed which uses ESML (Extended Systems Modelling Language) as a prototype specification language. The prototyping system advocates the translation of non-executable ESML specifications into executable LOOPN (Language of Object ...

Branch and price for the time-dependent vehicle routing problem with time windows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dabia, Said; Dabia, Said; Van Woensel, Tom

2013-01-01

of column generation, and a tailored labeling algorithm is used to solve the pricing problem. We introduce new dominance criteria that allow more label dominance. For our numerical results, we modified Solomon's data sets by adding time dependency. Our algorithm is able to solve about 63% of the instances...... solution methods to the DM-TDVRPTW are based on (meta-)heuristics. The decomposition of an arc-based formulation leads to a setpartitioning problem as the master problem, and a time-dependent shortest path problem with resource constraints as the pricing problem. The master problem is solved by means...... with 25 customers, 38% of the instances with 50 customers, and 15% of the instances with 100 customers. © 2013 INFORMS....

The Analysis of Differences in Residential Property Price Indices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kokot Sebastian

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Residential property price indices can serve as a useful tool in the practice of real property market analysts, investment advisers, property developers, certified property appraisers, estate agents and managers. They can also be applied in property price valorization in specific legal positions. The Polish Act on Real Estate Management puts an obligation on the President of the Central Statistical Office to announce real property price indices, but the CSO fails to fulfill this obligation. The author’s rationale for this article is to contribute to works on rules of how to build property price indices. Presented within are the results of research on determining the price indices of such types of residential property as: a part of a building constituting a separate property and strata titles in housing cooperatives. The flats were divided into categories by floor area and by their location in 16 voivodeship capitals. The major purpose of the study is to prove that the prices of flats of different floor area change at different rates. Consequently, it seems worth considering whether a more detailed segmentation of the real estate market would be worthwhile for the sake of more accurate real property price indicators.

Software Design Methods for Real-Time Systems

Science.gov (United States)

1989-12-01

This module describes the concepts and methods used in the software design of real time systems . It outlines the characteristics of real time systems , describes...the role of software design in real time system development, surveys and compares some software design methods for real - time systems , and

Distributed, Embedded and Real-time Java Systems

CERN Document Server

Wellings, Andy

2012-01-01

Research on real-time Java technology has been prolific over the past decade, leading to a large number of corresponding hardware and software solutions, and frameworks for distributed and embedded real-time Java systems.  This book is aimed primarily at researchers in real-time embedded systems, particularly those who wish to understand the current state of the art in using Java in this domain.  Much of the work in real-time distributed, embedded and real-time Java has focused on the Real-time Specification for Java (RTSJ) as the underlying base technology, and consequently many of the Chapters in this book address issues with, or solve problems using, this framework. Describes innovative techniques in: scheduling, memory management, quality of service and communication systems supporting real-time Java applications; Includes coverage of multiprocessor embedded systems and parallel programming; Discusses state-of-the-art resource management for embedded systems, including Java’s real-time garbage collect...

Research of real-time communication software

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Maotang; Guo, Jingbo; Liu, Yuzhong; Li, Jiahong

2003-11-01

Real-time communication has been playing an increasingly important role in our work, life and ocean monitor. With the rapid progress of computer and communication technique as well as the miniaturization of communication system, it is needed to develop the adaptable and reliable real-time communication software in the ocean monitor system. This paper involves the real-time communication software research based on the point-to-point satellite intercommunication system. The object-oriented design method is adopted, which can transmit and receive video data and audio data as well as engineering data by satellite channel. In the real-time communication software, some software modules are developed, which can realize the point-to-point satellite intercommunication in the ocean monitor system. There are three advantages for the real-time communication software. One is that the real-time communication software increases the reliability of the point-to-point satellite intercommunication system working. Second is that some optional parameters are intercalated, which greatly increases the flexibility of the system working. Third is that some hardware is substituted by the real-time communication software, which not only decrease the expense of the system and promotes the miniaturization of communication system, but also aggrandizes the agility of the system.

Customer response to day-ahead market hourly pricing: Choices and performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hopper, Nicole; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan, Bernie

2006-01-01

Real-time pricing (RTP) has been advocated to address extreme price volatility and market power in electricity markets. This study of Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation's largest customers analyzes their choices and performance in response to day-ahead, default-service RTP. Overall price response is modest: 119 customers are estimated to reduce their peak demand by about 10% at high prices. Manufacturing customers are most responsive with a price elasticity of 0.16, followed by government/education customers (0.11), while commercial/retail, healthcare and public works customers are, at present, relatively unresponsive. Within market segments, individual customer response varies significantly. (author)

Integration of MDSplus in real-time systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luchetta, A.; Manduchi, G.; Taliercio, C.

2006-01-01

RFX-mod makes extensive usage of real-time systems for feedback control and uses MDSplus to interface them to the main Data Acquisition system. For this purpose, the core of MDSplus has been ported to VxWorks, the operating system used for real-time control in RFX. Using this approach, it is possible to integrate real-time systems, but MDSplus is used only for non-real-time tasks, i.e. those tasks which are executed before and after the pulse and whose performance does not affect the system time constraints. More extensive use of MDSplus in real-time systems is foreseen, and a real-time layer for MDSplus is under development, which will provide access to memory-mapped pulse files, shared by the tasks running on the same CPU. Real-time communication will also be integrated in the MDSplus core to provide support for distributed memory-mapped pulse files

Oil price and the dollar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coudert, V.; Mignon, V.; Penot, A.

2007-01-01

Oil prices and the United States (US) dollar exchange rate are driving the evolution of the world economy. This paper investigated long-term relationships between oil prices and the US effective exchange rate. An empirical study was performed on oil prices and the dollar real effective exchange rate between 1974 to 2004. The impact of the dollar exchange rate was also explored, and the effects of oil prices on supply and demand were considered. A dynamic partial equilibrium framework study was evaluated in order to compare how other countries used revenues from oil exports in dollars. The study showed that both variables had similar evolutions when price fluctuations were low. Strong increases in the dollar were associated with lower oil prices. However, adjustment speeds of the dollar real effective exchange rate was slow. Co-integration and causality tests showed that oil prices influenced the exchange rate, and that the link between the 2 variables was transmitted through the country's net foreign asset position. It was concluded that higher oil prices improved US net foreign asset position in relation to other countries, and had a positive impact on dollar appreciation. 24 refs., 6 tabs., 1 fig

Dense time discretization technique for verification of real time systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makackas, Dalius; Miseviciene, Regina

2016-01-01

Verifying the real-time system there are two different models to control the time: discrete and dense time based models. This paper argues a novel verification technique, which calculates discrete time intervals from dense time in order to create all the system states that can be reached from the initial system state. The technique is designed for real-time systems specified by a piece-linear aggregate approach. Key words: real-time system, dense time, verification, model checking, piece-linear aggregate

Oil Price Shocks and Stock Markets in BRICs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ono, Shigeki

2011-06-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of oil prices on real stock returns for Brazil, China, India and Russia over 1999:1-2009:9 using VAR models. The results suggest that whereas real stock returns positively respond to some of the oil price indicators with statistical significance for China, India and Russia, those of Brazil do not show any significant responses. In addition, statistically significant asymmetric effects of oil price increases and decreases are observed in India. The analysis of variance decomposition shows that the contribution of oil price shocks to volatility in real stock returns is relatively large and statistically significant for China and Russia.

Storm real-time processing cookbook

CERN Document Server

Anderson, Quinton

2013-01-01

A Cookbook with plenty of practical recipes for different uses of Storm.If you are a Java developer with basic knowledge of real-time processing and would like to learn Storm to process unbounded streams of data in real time, then this book is for you.

Mixed - mode Operating System for Real - time Performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hasan M. M.

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the mixed-mode system research is to handle devices with the accuracy of real-time systems and at the same time, having all the benefits and facilities of a matured Graphic User Interface(GUIoperating system which is typicallynon-real-time. This mixed-mode operating system comprising of a real-time portion and a non-real-time portion was studied and implemented to identify the feasibilities and performances in practical applications (in the context of scheduled the real-time events. In this research an i8751 microcontroller-based hardware was used to measure the performance of the system in real-time-only as well as non-real-time-only configurations. The real-time portion is an 486DX-40 IBM PC system running under DOS-based real-time kernel and the non-real-time portion is a Pentium IIIbased system running under Windows NT. It was found that mixed-mode systems performed as good as a typical real-time system and in fact, gave many additional benefits such as simplified/modular programming and load tolerance.

Modeling Real Exchange Rate Persistence in Chile

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leonardo Salazar

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The long and persistent swings in the real exchange rate have for a long time puzzled economists. Recent models built on imperfect knowledge economics seem to provide a theoretical explanation for this persistence. Empirical results, based on a cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR model, provide evidence of error-increasing behavior in prices and interest rates, which is consistent with the persistence observed in the data. The movements in the real exchange rate are compensated by movements in the interest rate spread, which restores the equilibrium in the product market when the real exchange rate moves away from its long-run benchmark value. Fluctuations in the copper price also explain the deviations of the real exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium value.

Carbon financial markets: A time-frequency analysis of CO2 prices

Science.gov (United States)

Sousa, Rita; Aguiar-Conraria, Luís; Soares, Maria Joana

2014-11-01

We characterize the interrelation of CO2 prices with energy prices (electricity, gas and coal), and with economic activity. Previous studies have relied on time-domain techniques, such as Vector Auto-Regressions. In this study, we use multivariate wavelet analysis, which operates in the time-frequency domain. Wavelet analysis provides convenient tools to distinguish relations at particular frequencies and at particular time horizons. Our empirical approach has the potential to identify relations getting stronger and then disappearing over specific time intervals and frequencies. We are able to examine the coherency of these variables and lead-lag relations at different frequencies for the time periods in focus.

Time Series Analysis of Wheat flour Price Shocks in Pakistan: A Case Analysis

OpenAIRE

Asad Raza Abdi; Ali Hassan Halepoto; Aisha Bashir Shah; Faiz M. Shaikh

2013-01-01

The current research investigates the wheat flour Price Shocks in Pakistan: A case analysis. Data was collected by using secondary sources by using Time series Analysis, and data were analyzed by using SPSS-20 version. It was revealed that the price of wheat flour increases from last four decades, and trend of price shocks shows that due to certain market variation and supply and demand shocks also play a positive relationship in price shocks in the wheat prices. It was further revealed th...

Optimal models of extreme volume-prices are time-dependent

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rocha, Paulo; Boto, João Pedro; Raischel, Frank; Lind, Pedro G

2015-01-01

We present evidence that the best model for empirical volume-price distributions is not always the same and it strongly depends in (i) the region of the volume-price spectrum that one wants to model and (ii) the period in time that is being modelled. To show these two features we analyze stocks of the New York stock market with four different models: Γ, Γ-inverse, log-normal, and Weibull distributions. To evaluate the accuracy of each model we use standard relative deviations as well as the Kullback-Leibler distance and introduce an additional distance particularly suited to evaluate how accurate are the models for the distribution tails (large volume-price). Finally we put our findings in perspective and discuss how they can be extended to other situations in finance engineering

Research in Distributed Real-Time Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Mukkamala, R.

1997-01-01

This document summarizes the progress we have made on our study of issues concerning the schedulability of real-time systems. Our study has produced several results in the scalability issues of distributed real-time systems. In particular, we have used our techniques to resolve schedulability issues in distributed systems with end-to-end requirements. During the next year (1997-98), we propose to extend the current work to address the modeling and workload characterization issues in distributed real-time systems. In particular, we propose to investigate the effect of different workload models and component models on the design and the subsequent performance of distributed real-time systems.

Real-time data access layer for MDSplus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manduchi, G.; Luchetta, A.; Taliercio, C.; Fredian, T.; Stillerman, J.

2008-01-01

Recent extensions to MDSplus allow data handling in long discharges and provide a real-time data access and communication layer. The real-time data access layer is an additional component of MDSplus: it is possible to use the traditional MDSplus API during normal operation, and to select a subset of data items to be used in real time. Real-time notification is provided by a communication layer using a publish-subscribe pattern. The notification covers processes sharing the same data items even running on different machines, thus allowing the implementation of distributed control systems. The real-time data access layer has been developed for Windows, Linux, and VxWorks; it is currently being ported to Linux RTAI. In order to quantify the fingerprint of the presented system, the performance of the real-time access layer approach is compared with that of an ad hoc, manually optimized program in a sample real-time application

A Real-Time Systems Symposium Preprint.

Science.gov (United States)

1983-09-01

Real - Time Systems Symposium Preprint Interim Tech...estimate of the occurence of the error. Unclassii ledSECUqITY CLASSIF’ICA T" NO MI*IA If’ inDI /’rrd erter for~~ble. ’Corrputnqg A REAL - TIME SYSTEMS SYMPOSIUM...ABSTRACT This technical report contains a preprint of a paper accepted for presentation at the REAL - TIME SYSTEMS SYMPOSIUM, Arlington,

Benefits of real-time gas management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nolty, R.; Dolezalek, D. Jr.

1994-01-01

In today's competitive gas gathering, processing, storage and transportation business environment, the requirements to do business are continually changing. These changes arise from government regulations such as the amendments to the Clean Air Act concerning the environment and FERC Order 636 concerning business practices. Other changes are due to advances in technology such as electronic flow measurement (EFM) and real-time communications capabilities within the gas industry. Gas gathering, processing, storage and transportation companies must be flexible in adapting to these changes to remain competitive. These dynamic requirements can be met with an open, real-time gas management computer information system. Such a system provides flexible services with a variety of software applications. Allocations, nominations management and gas dispatching are examples of applications that are provided on a real-time basis. By providing real-time services, the gas management system enables operations personnel to make timely adjustments within the current accounting period. Benefits realized from implementing a real-time gas management system include reduced unaccountable gas, reduced imbalance penalties, reduced regulatory violations, improved facility operations and better service to customers. These benefits give a company the competitive edge. This article discusses the applications provided, the benefits from implementing a real-time gas management system, and the definition of such a system

Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil

Science.gov (United States)

Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu

2015-02-01

Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.

Making real-time reactive systems reliable

Science.gov (United States)

Marzullo, Keith; Wood, Mark

1990-01-01

A reactive system is characterized by a control program that interacts with an environment (or controlled program). The control program monitors the environment and reacts to significant events by sending commands to the environment. This structure is quite general. Not only are most embedded real time systems reactive systems, but so are monitoring and debugging systems and distributed application management systems. Since reactive systems are usually long running and may control physical equipment, fault tolerance is vital. The research tries to understand the principal issues of fault tolerance in real time reactive systems and to build tools that allow a programmer to design reliable, real time reactive systems. In order to make real time reactive systems reliable, several issues must be addressed: (1) How can a control program be built to tolerate failures of sensors and actuators. To achieve this, a methodology was developed for transforming a control program that references physical value into one that tolerates sensors that can fail and can return inaccurate values; (2) How can the real time reactive system be built to tolerate failures of the control program. Towards this goal, whether the techniques presented can be extended to real time reactive systems is investigated; and (3) How can the environment be specified in a way that is useful for writing a control program. Towards this goal, whether a system with real time constraints can be expressed as an equivalent system without such constraints is also investigated.

Time is up: increasing shadow price of time in primary-care office visits.

Science.gov (United States)

Tai-Seale, Ming; McGuire, Thomas

2012-04-01

A physician's own time is a scarce resource in primary care, and the physician must constantly evaluate the gain from spending more time with the current patient against moving to address the health-care needs of the next. We formulate and test two alternative hypotheses. The first hypothesis is based on the premise that with time so scarce, physicians equalize the marginal value of time across patients. The second, alternative hypothesis states that physicians allocate the same time to each patient, regardless of how much the patient benefits from the time at the margin. For our empirical work, we examine the presence of a sharply increasing subjective shadow price of time around the 'target' time using video recordings of 385 visits by elderly patients to their primary care physician. We structure the data at the 'topic' level and find evidence consistent with the alternative hypothesis. Specifically, time elapsed within a visit is a very strong determinant of the current topic being the 'last topic'. This finding implies the physician's shadow price of time is rising during the course of a visit. We consider whether dislodging a target-time mentality from physicians (and patients) might contribute to more productive primary care practice. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dynamic Pricing for Resource Consumption in Cloud Service

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bin Cao

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studies dynamic pricing for cloud service where different resources are consumed by different users. The traditional cloud resource pricing models can be divided into two categories: on-demand service and reserved service. The former only takes the using time into account and is unfair for the users with long using time and little concurrency. The latter charges the same price to all the users and does not consider the resource consumption of users. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a flexible dynamic pricing model for cloud resources, which not only takes into account the occupying time and resource consumption of different users but also considers the maximal concurrency of resource consumption. As a result, on the one hand, this dynamic pricing model can help users save the cost of cloud resources. On the other hand, the profits of service providers are guaranteed. The key of the pricing model is how to efficiently calculate the maximal concurrency of resource consumption since the cost of providers is dynamically varied based on the maximal concurrency. To support this function in real time, we propose a data structure based on the classical B+ tree and the implementation for its corresponding basic operations like insertion, deletion, split, and query. Finally, the experiment results show that we can complete the dynamic pricing query on 10 million cloud resource usage records within 0.2 seconds on average.

Space Weather and Real-Time Monitoring

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S Watari

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Recent advance of information and communications technology enables to collect a large amount of ground-based and space-based observation data in real-time. The real-time data realize nowcast of space weather. This paper reports a history of space weather by the International Space Environment Service (ISES in association with the International Geophysical Year (IGY and importance of real-time monitoring in space weather.

Research Directions in Real-Time Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

1996-09-01

This report summarizes a survey of published research in real time systems . Material is presented that provides an overview of the topic, focusing on...communications protocols and scheduling techniques. It is noted that real - time systems deserve special attention separate from other areas because of...formal tools for design and analysis of real - time systems . The early work on applications as well as notable theoretical advances are summarized

33 CFR 211.146 - Price.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Price. 211.146 Section 211.146 Navigation and Navigable Waters CORPS OF ENGINEERS, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE REAL ESTATE... Industrial Facilities § 211.146 Price. No conveyance shall be made for a price less than the fair market...

Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunn, D.W.

2004-04-01

Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Weiqi; Wu, Libo; Zhang, ZhongXiang

2010-01-01

A considerable body of economic literature shows the adverse economic impacts of oil-price shocks for the developed economies. However, there has been a lack of similar empirical study on China and other developing countries. This paper attempts to fill this gap by answering how and to what extent oil-price shocks impact China's economy, emphasizing on the price transmission mechanisms. To that end, we develop a structural vector auto-regressive model. Our results show that an oil-price increase negatively affects output and investment, but positively affects inflation rate and interest rate. However, with price control policies in China, the impact on real economy, represented by real output and real investment, lasts much longer than that to price/monetary variables. Our decomposition results also show that the short-term impact, namely output decrease induced by the cut in capacity-utilization rate, is greater in the first 6 periods (namely half a year), but the portion of the long-term impact, defined as the impact realized through an investment change, increases steadily and exceeds that of short-term impact in the 7th period. Afterwards, the long-term impact dominates, and maintains for quite some time. (author)

Optimal Load Response to Time-of-Use Power Price for Demand Side Management in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2010-01-01

-of-use power price for demand side management in order to save the energy costs as much as possible. 3 typical different kinds of loads (industrial load, residential load and commercial load) in Denmark are chosen as study cases. The energy costs decrease up to 9.6% with optimal load response to time......-of-use power price for different loads. Simulation results show that the optimal load response to time-of-use power price for demand side management generates different load profiles and reduces the load peaks. This kind of load patterns may also have significant effects on the power system normal operation.......Since the hourly spot market price is available one day ahead in Denmark, the price could be transferred to the consumers and they may shift their loads from high price periods to the low price periods in order to save their energy costs. This paper presents a load optimization method to time...

Real-Time MENTAT programming language and architecture

Science.gov (United States)

Grimshaw, Andrew S.; Silberman, Ami; Liu, Jane W. S.

1989-01-01

Real-time MENTAT, a programming environment designed to simplify the task of programming real-time applications in distributed and parallel environments, is described. It is based on the same data-driven computation model and object-oriented programming paradigm as MENTAT. It provides an easy-to-use mechanism to exploit parallelism, language constructs for the expression and enforcement of timing constraints, and run-time support for scheduling and exciting real-time programs. The real-time MENTAT programming language is an extended C++. The extensions are added to facilitate automatic detection of data flow and generation of data flow graphs, to express the timing constraints of individual granules of computation, and to provide scheduling directives for the runtime system. A high-level view of the real-time MENTAT system architecture and programming language constructs is provided.

Real Time Conference 2016 Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Luchetta, Adriano

2017-06-01

This is a special issue of the IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science containing papers from the invited, oral, and poster presentation of the 20th Real Time Conference (RT2016). The conference was held June 6-10, 2016, at Centro Congressi Padova “A. Luciani,” Padova, Italy, and was organized by Consorzio RFX (CNR, ENEA, INFN, Università di Padova, Acciaierie Venete SpA) and the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare. The Real Time Conference is multidisciplinary and focuses on the latest developments in real-time techniques in high-energy physics, nuclear physics, astrophysics and astroparticle physics, nuclear fusion, medical physics, space instrumentation, nuclear power instrumentation, general radiation instrumentation, and real-time security and safety. Taking place every second year, it is sponsored by the Computer Application in Nuclear and Plasma Sciences technical committee of the IEEE Nuclear and Plasma Sciences Society. RT2016 attracted more than 240 registrants, with a large proportion of young researchers and engineers. It had an attendance of 67 students from many countries.

Optimal Real-time Dispatch for Integrated Energy Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Firestone, Ryan Michael [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

2007-05-31

This report describes the development and application of a dispatch optimization algorithm for integrated energy systems (IES) comprised of on-site cogeneration of heat and electricity, energy storage devices, and demand response opportunities. This work is intended to aid commercial and industrial sites in making use of modern computing power and optimization algorithms to make informed, near-optimal decisions under significant uncertainty and complex objective functions. The optimization algorithm uses a finite set of randomly generated future scenarios to approximate the true, stochastic future; constraints are included that prevent solutions to this approximate problem from deviating from solutions to the actual problem. The algorithm is then expressed as a mixed integer linear program, to which a powerful commercial solver is applied. A case study of United States Postal Service Processing and Distribution Centers (P&DC) in four cities and under three different electricity tariff structures is conducted to (1) determine the added value of optimal control to a cogeneration system over current, heuristic control strategies; (2) determine the value of limited electric load curtailment opportunities, with and without cogeneration; and (3) determine the trade-off between least-cost and least-carbon operations of a cogeneration system. Key results for the P&DC sites studied include (1) in locations where the average electricity and natural gas prices suggest a marginally profitable cogeneration system, optimal control can add up to 67% to the value of the cogeneration system; optimal control adds less value in locations where cogeneration is more clearly profitable; (2) optimal control under real-time pricing is (a) more complicated than under typical time-of-use tariffs and (b) at times necessary to make cogeneration economic at all; (3) limited electric load curtailment opportunities can be more valuable as a compliment to the cogeneration system than alone; and

Run-time middleware to support real-time system scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goossens, K.; Koedam, M.; Sinha, S.; Nelson, A.; Geilen, M.

2015-01-01

Systems on Chip (SOC) are powerful multiprocessor systems capable of running multiple independent applications, often with both real-time and non-real-time requirements. Scenarios exist at two levels: first, combinations of independent applications, and second, different states of a single

Advanced real-time manipulation of video streams

CERN Document Server

Herling, Jan

2014-01-01

Diminished Reality is a new fascinating technology that removes real-world content from live video streams. This sensational live video manipulation actually removes real objects and generates a coherent video stream in real-time. Viewers cannot detect modified content. Existing approaches are restricted to moving objects and static or almost static cameras and do not allow real-time manipulation of video content. Jan Herling presents a new and innovative approach for real-time object removal with arbitrary camera movements.

Demand side management in recycling and electricity retail pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Kazan, Osman

This dissertation addresses several problems from the recycling industry and electricity retail market. The first paper addresses a real-life scheduling problem faced by a national industrial recycling company. Based on their practices, a scheduling problem is defined, modeled, analyzed, and a solution is approximated efficiently. The recommended application is tested on the real-life data and randomly generated data. The scheduling improvements and the financial benefits are presented. The second problem is from electricity retail market. There are well-known patterns in daily usage in hours. These patterns change in shape and magnitude by seasons and days of the week. Generation costs are multiple times higher during the peak hours of the day. Yet most consumers purchase electricity at flat rates. This work explores analytic pricing tools to reduce peak load electricity demand for retailers. For that purpose, a nonlinear model that determines optimal hourly prices is established based on two major components: unit generation costs and consumers' utility. Both are analyzed and estimated empirically in the third paper. A pricing model is introduced to maximize the electric retailer's profit. As a result, a closed-form expression for the optimal price vector is obtained. Possible scenarios are evaluated for consumers' utility distribution. For the general case, we provide a numerical solution methodology to obtain the optimal pricing scheme. The models recommended are tested under various scenarios that consider consumer segmentation and multiple pricing policies. The recommended model reduces the peak load significantly in most cases. Several utility companies offer hourly pricing to their customers. They determine prices using historical data of unit electricity cost over time. In this dissertation we develop a nonlinear model that determines optimal hourly prices with parameter estimation. The last paper includes a regression analysis of the unit generation cost

Price Competition or Tacit Collusion

OpenAIRE

Yano, Makoto; Komatsubara, Takashi

2012-01-01

Every now and then, we observe a fierce price war in a real world market, through which competing firms end up with a Bertrand-like price competition equilibrium. Despite this, very little has been known in the existing literature as to why a price competition market is formed. We address this question in the context of a choice between engaging in price competition and holding a price leader. Focusing on a duopoly market, we demonstrate that if supply is tight relative to demand, and if the ...

Dynamic Price Vector Formation Model-Based Automatic Demand Response Strategy for PV-Assisted EV Charging Stations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Qifang; Wang, Fei; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Zhang, Jianhua; Li, Zhigang; Shafie-Khah, Miadreza; Catalao, Joao P. S.

2017-11-01

A real-time price (RTP)-based automatic demand response (ADR) strategy for PV-assisted electric vehicle (EV) Charging Station (PVCS) without vehicle to grid is proposed. The charging process is modeled as a dynamic linear program instead of the normal day-ahead and real-time regulation strategy, to capture the advantages of both global and real-time optimization. Different from conventional price forecasting algorithms, a dynamic price vector formation model is proposed based on a clustering algorithm to form an RTP vector for a particular day. A dynamic feasible energy demand region (DFEDR) model considering grid voltage profiles is designed to calculate the lower and upper bounds. A deduction method is proposed to deal with the unknown information of future intervals, such as the actual stochastic arrival and departure times of EVs, which make the DFEDR model suitable for global optimization. Finally, both the comparative cases articulate the advantages of the developed methods and the validity in reducing electricity costs, mitigating peak charging demand, and improving PV self-consumption of the proposed strategy are verified through simulation scenarios.

Archtecture of distributed real-time systems

OpenAIRE

Wing Leung, Cheuk

2013-01-01

CRAFTERS (Constraint and Application Driven Framework for Tailoring Embedded Real-time System) project aims to address the problem of uncertainty and heterogeneity in a distributed system by providing seamless, portable connectivity and middleware. This thesis contributes to the project by investigating the techniques that can be used in a distributed real-time embedded system. The conclusion is that, there is a list of specifications to be meet in order to provide a transparent and real-time...

Immigration, Real Estate Prices and the Consumption Decisions of Native Households

OpenAIRE

Adams, Zeno; Blickle, Kristian

2016-01-01

Since house prices govern the consumption decisions of renters and owners alike, changing house prices can have far-reaching macroeconomic consequences. We analyze how the disposable income and consumption decisions of households are affected by exogenous house price changes in Switzerland. We look at consumption of both housing and non-durable goods to establish a comprehensive picture. We ensure that our house price variation is exogenous by instrumenting house prices with origin-shift immi...

On using priced timed automata to achieve optimal scheduling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jacob Illum; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Subramani, K.

2006-01-01

This contribution reports on the considerable effort made recently towards extending and applying well-established timed automata technology to optimal scheduling and planning problems. The effort of the authors in this direction has to a large extent been carried out as part of the European proj...... of so-called priced timed automata....

[Toward a conditional price for medicine?].

Science.gov (United States)

Baseilhac, E

2013-09-01

For the first time, and as an exceptional option, the 2012 LEEM-CEPS framework agreement introduces the notion of conditional prices in conventional practice. The contractualization of drug price according to changes in its value that could occur in "real world" enables the Payer and the Company to settle, in a predictable manner, the "bet" represented by first registration price setting. Its systematization is based on the ability to standardize the implementation and assessment of observational studies, whereas the analysis and sharing of the risk of value changes (depreciation, appreciation) are structuring elements of the contractualization. Ethical from both the payer's and patient's point of view, drug price conditionality on its value is impeded by compliance with legal and economic constraints for the company, that should be taken into account by legalising this latter's ability to influence it through observance or therapeutic education and by guaranteeing a sufficiently long period of revenues for the company. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Design of a real time market for regulating power. FlexPower WP1 - Report 3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bang, C.; Fock, F.; Togeby, M.

2011-12-15

The FlexPower project investigates the possibility of using broadcasted dynamic electricity prices as a simple and low cost means to activating a large number of flexible small-scale power units. The aim is to provide regulating power via an aggregated response from the numerous units on a volunteer basis. The power units could for example be electrical heating and cooling units, electrical vehicles, industrial demand and micro generation. Each power unit can have its own local controller and individual business model and objective function. The optimisation of the local controls may require forecasts of the services requested by the customer (such as heat for a house or charging power for an electrical vehicle) - in terms of quantity, timing and flexibility - and forecasts of the electricity prices. Based on international 'real-time' power market experiences, new dynamic FlexPower market mechanisms to perform regulating power are designed and tested via simulations, under laboratory conditions and in the field. A dedicated simulation tool is developed for this purpose. The FlexPower regulation can never be perfect, but is expected to be able to meet some of the present and future growing demand for regulating power. As a starting point, a 5-minute power price signal, based on the actual regulation power prices, is tested. WP1 addresses the following question: 1) How could a system with a one-way price be designed? How can the FlexPower mechanism be integrated into the present electricity market, including the market for regulating power? This report describes the FlexPower concept, and gives one suggestion as to how this new market could work. How this will affect the different stakeholders is discussed, and risks and opportunities in the new market are presented. (LN)

Implementing Run-Time Evaluation of Distributed Timing Constraints in a Real-Time Environment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, C. H.; Drejer, N.

1994-01-01

In this paper we describe a solution to the problem of implementing run-time evaluation of timing constraints in distributed real-time environments......In this paper we describe a solution to the problem of implementing run-time evaluation of timing constraints in distributed real-time environments...

REAL TIME SYSTEM OPERATIONS 2006-2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eto, Joseph H.; Parashar, Manu; Lewis, Nancy Jo

2008-08-15

The Real Time System Operations (RTSO) 2006-2007 project focused on two parallel technical tasks: (1) Real-Time Applications of Phasors for Monitoring, Alarming and Control; and (2) Real-Time Voltage Security Assessment (RTVSA) Prototype Tool. The overall goal of the phasor applications project was to accelerate adoption and foster greater use of new, more accurate, time-synchronized phasor measurements by conducting research and prototyping applications on California ISO's phasor platform - Real-Time Dynamics Monitoring System (RTDMS) -- that provide previously unavailable information on the dynamic stability of the grid. Feasibility assessment studies were conducted on potential application of this technology for small-signal stability monitoring, validating/improving existing stability nomograms, conducting frequency response analysis, and obtaining real-time sensitivity information on key metrics to assess grid stress. Based on study findings, prototype applications for real-time visualization and alarming, small-signal stability monitoring, measurement based sensitivity analysis and frequency response assessment were developed, factory- and field-tested at the California ISO and at BPA. The goal of the RTVSA project was to provide California ISO with a prototype voltage security assessment tool that runs in real time within California ISO?s new reliability and congestion management system. CERTS conducted a technical assessment of appropriate algorithms, developed a prototype incorporating state-of-art algorithms (such as the continuation power flow, direct method, boundary orbiting method, and hyperplanes) into a framework most suitable for an operations environment. Based on study findings, a functional specification was prepared, which the California ISO has since used to procure a production-quality tool that is now a part of a suite of advanced computational tools that is used by California ISO for reliability and congestion management.

A study of real-time content marketing : formulating real-time content marketing based on content, search and social media

OpenAIRE

Nguyen, Thi Kim Duyen

2015-01-01

The primary objective of this research is to understand profoundly the new concept of content marketing – real-time content marketing on the aspect of the digital marketing experts. Particularly, the research will focus on the real-time content marketing theories and how to build real-time content marketing strategy based on content, search and social media. It also finds out how marketers measure and keep track of conversion rates of their real-time content marketing plan. Practically, th...

Application of XML in real-time data warehouse

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yanhong; Wang, Beizhan; Liu, Lizhao; Ye, Su

2009-07-01

At present, XML is one of the most widely-used technologies of data-describing and data-exchanging, and the needs for real-time data make real-time data warehouse a popular area in the research of data warehouse. What effects can we have if we apply XML technology to the research of real-time data warehouse? XML technology solves many technologic problems which are impossible to be addressed in traditional real-time data warehouse, and realize the integration of OLAP (On-line Analytical Processing) and OLTP (Online transaction processing) environment. Then real-time data warehouse can truly be called "real time".

Clearwood quality and softwood lumber prices: what's the real premium?

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas R. Waggener; Roger D. Fight

1999-01-01

Diminishing quantities of appearance grade lumber and rising price premiums for it have accompanied the transition from old-growth to young-growth timber. The price premiums for better grades are an incentive for producers to undertake investments to increase the yield of those higher valued products. Price premiums, however, are also an incentive for users to...

Simulating Stock Prices Using Geometric Brownian Motion: Evidence from Australian Companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krishna Reddy

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This study uses the geometric Brownian motion (GBM method to simulate stock price paths, and tests whether the simulated stock prices align with actual stock returns. The sample for this study was based on the large listed Australian companies listed on the S&P/ASX 50 Index. Daily stock price data was obtained from the Thomson One database over the period 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2014. The findings are slightly encouraging as results show that over all time horizons the chances of a stock price simulated using GBM moving in the same direction as real stock prices was a little greater than 50 percent. However, the results improved slightly when portfolios were formed.

Mixed - mode Operating System for Real - time Performance

OpenAIRE

Hasan M. M.; Sultana S.; Foo C.K.

2017-01-01

The purpose of the mixed-mode system research is to handle devices with the accuracy of real-time systems and at the same time, having all the benefits and facilities of a matured Graphic User Interface(GUI)operating system which is typicallynon-real-time. This mixed-mode operating system comprising of a real-time portion and a non-real-time portion was studied and implemented to identify the feasibilities and performances in practical applications (in the context of scheduled the real-time e...

Mixed-mode Operating System for Real-time Performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.M. Hasan

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the mixed-mode system research is to handle devices with the accuracy of real-time systems and at the same time, having all the benefits and facilities of a matured Graphic User Interface (GUI operating system which is typically nonreal-time. This mixed-mode operating system comprising of a real-time portion and a non-real-time portion was studied and implemented to identify the feasibilities and performances in practical applications (in the context of scheduled the real-time events. In this research an i8751 microcontroller-based hardware was used to measure the performance of the system in real-time-only as well as non-real-time-only configurations. The real-time portion is an 486DX-40 IBM PC system running under DOS-based realtime kernel and the non-real-time portion is a Pentium III based system running under Windows NT. It was found that mixed-mode systems performed as good as a typical realtime system and in fact, gave many additional benefits such as simplified/modular programming and load tolerance.

Musrfit-Real Time Parameter Fitting Using GPUs

Science.gov (United States)

Locans, Uldis; Suter, Andreas

High transverse field μSR (HTF-μSR) experiments typically lead to a rather large data sets, since it is necessary to follow the high frequencies present in the positron decay histograms. The analysis of these data sets can be very time consuming, usually due to the limited computational power of the hardware. To overcome the limited computing resources rotating reference frame transformation (RRF) is often used to reduce the data sets that need to be handled. This comes at a price typically the μSR community is not aware of: (i) due to the RRF transformation the fitting parameter estimate is of poorer precision, i.e., more extended expensive beamtime is needed. (ii) RRF introduces systematic errors which hampers the statistical interpretation of χ2 or the maximum log-likelihood. We will briefly discuss these issues in a non-exhaustive practical way. The only and single purpose of the RRF transformation is the sluggish computer power. Therefore during this work GPU (Graphical Processing Units) based fitting was developed which allows to perform real-time full data analysis without RRF. GPUs have become increasingly popular in scientific computing in recent years. Due to their highly parallel architecture they provide the opportunity to accelerate many applications with considerably less costs than upgrading the CPU computational power. With the emergence of frameworks such as CUDA and OpenCL these devices have become more easily programmable. During this work GPU support was added to Musrfit- a data analysis framework for μSR experiments. The new fitting algorithm uses CUDA or OpenCL to offload the most time consuming parts of the calculations to Nvidia or AMD GPUs. Using the current CPU implementation in Musrfit parameter fitting can take hours for certain data sets while the GPU version can allow to perform real-time data analysis on the same data sets. This work describes the challenges that arise in adding the GPU support to t as well as results obtained

North American demand and supply dynamics - implications for pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

George, R.

1998-01-01

Key issues regarding the natural gas industry and the long-term outlook for North American supply and demand for natural gas were discussed. The North American market was characterized as not a mature market, meaning that demand will continue to increase in the coming years. It was confidently predicted that supplies will be available for development at reasonable costs. However, real prices will slowly increase over time. Short-term fundamentals, expectations and pricing outlook were also discussed. The influence of upstream activity levels, the health of the economy, weather and storage were all identified as factors that will impact on short-term price expectations. According to this author a minor increase in price may be expected during the winter of 1998/1999. tabs., figs

Testing of real-time-software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friesland, G.; Ovenhausen, H.

1975-05-01

The situation in the area of testing real-time-software is unsatisfactory. During the first phase of the project PROMOTE (prozessorientiertes Modul- und Gesamttestsystem) an analysis of the momentary situation took place, results of which are summarized in the following study about some user interviews and an analysis of relevant literature. 22 users (industry, software-houses, hardware-manufacturers, and institutes) have been interviewed. Discussions were held about reliability of real-time software with special interest to error avoidance, testing, and debugging. Main aims of the analysis of the literature were elaboration of standard terms, comparison of existing test methods and -systems, and the definition of boundaries to related areas. During the further steps of this project some means and techniques will be worked out to systematically test real-time software. (orig.) [de

Validation and Assessment of Multi-GNSS Real-Time Precise Point Positioning in Simulated Kinematic Mode Using IGS Real-Time Service

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liang Wang

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Precise Point Positioning (PPP is a popular technology for precise applications based on the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS. Multi-GNSS combined PPP has become a hot topic in recent years with the development of multiple GNSSs. Meanwhile, with the operation of the real-time service (RTS of the International GNSS Service (IGS agency that provides satellite orbit and clock corrections to broadcast ephemeris, it is possible to obtain the real-time precise products of satellite orbits and clocks and to conduct real-time PPP. In this contribution, the real-time multi-GNSS orbit and clock corrections of the CLK93 product are applied for real-time multi-GNSS PPP processing, and its orbit and clock qualities are investigated, first with a seven-day experiment by comparing them with the final multi-GNSS precise product ‘GBM’ from GFZ. Then, an experiment involving real-time PPP processing for three stations in the Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX network with a testing period of two weeks is conducted in order to evaluate the convergence performance of real-time PPP in a simulated kinematic mode. The experimental result shows that real-time PPP can achieve a convergence performance of less than 15 min for an accuracy level of 20 cm. Finally, the real-time data streams from 12 globally distributed IGS/MGEX stations for one month are used to assess and validate the positioning accuracy of real-time multi-GNSS PPP. The results show that the simulated kinematic positioning accuracy achieved by real-time PPP on different stations is about 3.0 to 4.0 cm for the horizontal direction and 5.0 to 7.0 cm for the three-dimensional (3D direction.

The FERMI-Elettra distributed real-time framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pivetta, L.; Gaio, G.; Passuello, R.; Scalamera, G.

2012-01-01

FERMI-Elettra is a Free Electron Laser (FEL) based on a 1.5 GeV linac. The pulsed operation of the accelerator and the necessity to characterize and control each electron bunch requires synchronous acquisition of the beam diagnostics together with the ability to drive actuators in real-time at the linac repetition rate. The Adeos/Xenomai real-time extensions have been adopted in order to add real-time capabilities to the Linux based control system computers running the Tango software. A software communication protocol based on Gigabit Ethernet and known as Network Reflective Memory (NRM) has been developed to implement a shared memory across the whole control system, allowing computers to communicate in real-time. The NRM architecture, the real-time performance and the integration in the control system are described. (authors)

Real-time video quality monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Tao; Narvekar, Niranjan; Wang, Beibei; Ding, Ran; Zou, Dekun; Cash, Glenn; Bhagavathy, Sitaram; Bloom, Jeffrey

2011-12-01

The ITU-T Recommendation G.1070 is a standardized opinion model for video telephony applications that uses video bitrate, frame rate, and packet-loss rate to measure the video quality. However, this model was original designed as an offline quality planning tool. It cannot be directly used for quality monitoring since the above three input parameters are not readily available within a network or at the decoder. And there is a great room for the performance improvement of this quality metric. In this article, we present a real-time video quality monitoring solution based on this Recommendation. We first propose a scheme to efficiently estimate the three parameters from video bitstreams, so that it can be used as a real-time video quality monitoring tool. Furthermore, an enhanced algorithm based on the G.1070 model that provides more accurate quality prediction is proposed. Finally, to use this metric in real-world applications, we present an example emerging application of real-time quality measurement to the management of transmitted videos, especially those delivered to mobile devices.

Heterogeneous Embedded Real-Time Systems Environment

Science.gov (United States)

2003-12-01

AFRL-IF-RS-TR-2003-290 Final Technical Report December 2003 HETEROGENEOUS EMBEDDED REAL - TIME SYSTEMS ENVIRONMENT Integrated...HETEROGENEOUS EMBEDDED REAL - TIME SYSTEMS ENVIRONMENT 6. AUTHOR(S) Cosmo Castellano and James Graham 5. FUNDING NUMBERS C - F30602-97-C-0259

Albania Residential Prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luciana Koprencka

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The real estate market is complex and influenced by too many factors. Real Estate market in Albania has experienced a boom after the 1990. We have inherited from the communist system a very poor market of housing. The number of dwellings in 1990 in Albania was 219 dwellings per 1000 inhabitants and the useful floor space was 5 m² per person, but in Bulgaria number of dwellings per 1,000 people varies 465 and in Romania average useful floor space per person was 37 sq. The data used in this study are derived from the database of the World Bank, the Institute of Statistics, reports of Bank of Albania also from information provided individually on the ground and different sources. In this study is analyzed the relationship that exists between economic growth, remittances and the price of dwellings in Albania. The dependent variable is the average price of housing in major cities of Albania. Independent variables in the model are GDP per capita and the remittances. The Econometric model is a Linear Regress equation and the period are the years from 1998 to 2013. The model used is the statistical program EViews 6.0. Unfortunately the information let the desired, so we do not have an official detailed information on prices of Albanian real estate market. In Albania few researchers have been studying real estate market in Albania.

Temporal Proof Methodologies for Real-Time Systems,

Science.gov (United States)

1990-09-01

real time systems that communicate either through shared variables or by message passing and real time issues such as time-outs, process priorities (interrupts) and process scheduling. The authors exhibit two styles for the specification of real - time systems . While the first approach uses bounded versions of temporal operators the second approach allows explicit references to time through a special clock variable. Corresponding to two styles of specification the authors present and compare two fundamentally different proof

Impact of sucrose contents and cooking time on cowpea prices in Senegal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mb.D Faye

2014-07-01

Full Text Available An alternative approach to traditional consumer behaviour and demand theory is characteristics theory, which assumes that a consumer’s utility function is generated by the characteristics, or attributes, that goods and services possess. Instead of a utility being a function of a product, it becomes a function of the attributes provided by these products. In this paper a hedonic pricing model is used to investigate the influence of sucrose level and cooking time on cowpea prices in Senegal.  Cooking time has a significant impact on price only at Tilene market in Dakar, while the sucrose contents tend to provide a premium throughout. Further investigation shows that the local varieties, AW, Matam and Ndiassiw have higher sucrose contents than the other cowpea varieties.

Real-time communication protocols: an overview

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hanssen, F.T.Y.; Jansen, P.G.

2003-01-01

This paper describes several existing data link layer protocols that provide real-time capabilities on wired networks, focusing on token-ring and Carrier Sense Multiple Access based networks. Existing modifications to provide better real-time capabilities and performance are also described. Finally

Self-Organization in Embedded Real-Time Systems

CERN Document Server

Brinkschulte, Uwe; Rettberg, Achim

2013-01-01

This book describes the emerging field of self-organizing, multicore, distributed and real-time embedded systems.  Self-organization of both hardware and software can be a key technique to handle the growing complexity of modern computing systems. Distributed systems running hundreds of tasks on dozens of processors, each equipped with multiple cores, requires self-organization principles to ensure efficient and reliable operation. This book addresses various, so-called Self-X features such as self-configuration, self-optimization, self-adaptation, self-healing and self-protection. Presents open components for embedded real-time adaptive and self-organizing applications; Describes innovative techniques in: scheduling, memory management, quality of service, communications supporting organic real-time applications; Covers multi-/many-core embedded systems supporting real-time adaptive systems and power-aware, adaptive hardware and software systems; Includes case studies of open embedded real-time self-organizi...

Real-time systems scheduling fundamentals

CERN Document Server

Chetto, Maryline

2014-01-01

Real-time systems are used in a wide range of applications, including control, sensing, multimedia, etc.  Scheduling is a central problem for these computing/communication systems since responsible of software execution in a timely manner. This book provides state of knowledge in this domain with special emphasis on the key results obtained within the last decade. This book addresses foundations as well as the latest advances and findings in Real-Time Scheduling, giving all references to important papers. But nevertheless the chapters will be short and not overloaded with confusing details.

Optimal batch production strategies under continuous price decrease and time discounting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mandal S.

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Single price discount in unit cost for bulk purchasing is quite common in reality as well as in inventory literature. However, in today's high-tech industries such as personal computers and mobile industries, continuous decrease in unit cost is a regular phenomenon. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to investigate the effects of continuous price decrease and time-value of money on optimal decisions for inventoried goods having time-dependent demand and production rates. The proposed models are developed over a finite time horizon considering both shortages and without shortages in inventory. Numerical examples are taken to illustrate the developed models and to examine the sensitivity of model parameters.

Real-time specifications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

David, A.; Larsen, K.G.; Legay, A.

2015-01-01

A specification theory combines notions of specifications and implementations with a satisfaction relation, a refinement relation, and a set of operators supporting stepwise design. We develop a specification framework for real-time systems using Timed I/O Automata as the specification formalism......, with the semantics expressed in terms of Timed I/O Transition Systems. We provide constructs for refinement, consistency checking, logical and structural composition, and quotient of specifications-all indispensable ingredients of a compositional design methodology. The theory is implemented in the new tool Ecdar...

How can big data enhance the timeliness of official statistics? The case of the US consumer price index

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Harchaoui, Tarek M.; Janssen, Robert V.

2018-01-01

The daily consumer price index (CPI) produced by the Billion Prices Project (BPP CPI) offers a glimpse of the direction taken by consumer price inflation in real time. This is in contrast to the official U.S. CPI, which is compiled monthly and released with an average of a three-week delay following

Hall-Effect Sensors for Real-Time Monitoring Pier Scour

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen-Chia CHEN

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Scour around bridge pier is a major cause of bridge failure such as collapse resulted in loss of life and property. Most of available sensors and approaches for monitoring bridge pier scour are very expensive, which is a main challenge for mass deployment of numerous bridges. Our proposed scour monitoring system utilized low-cost commercial sensors, hall-effect sensors (unit price< $1 that are capable of real-time measuring bridge pier scour with resolution of ~ 2.5 cm, and overall cost for single sensor node of our proposed work is at least 40 % less expensive than existing work. The hall- effect sensor is evaluated under controlled conditions in two laboratory flumes. After scour event, the typical voltage change of the hall-effect sensor is ~ 300 mV, and the system achieve signal-to-noise ratio performance of ~ 60 dB. Finally, we also provide an equation to predict the time variation of scour depth around pier model. Moreover, the master-slave architecture of bridge pier scour monitoring system has scalability and flexibility for mass deployment. This technique has the potential for further widespread implementation in the field.

OPTIMAL PRICING OF A PERSONALIZED PRODUCT

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Suresh P.SETHI

2008-01-01

This paper deals with optimal pricing of a personalized product such as a personal portrait or photo.A new model of the pricing structure inspired by two real-life cases is introduced to the literature and solved to obtain optimal photo sitting fees and the final product price.A sensitivity analysis with respect to the problem parameters is performed.

On Real-Time Systems Using Local Area Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

1987-07-01

87-35 July, 1987 CS-TR-1892 On Real - Time Systems Using Local Area Networks*I VShem-Tov Levi Department of Computer Science Satish K. Tripathit...1892 On Real - Time Systems Using Local Area Networks* Shem-Tov Levi Department of Computer Science Satish K. Tripathit Department of Computer Science...constraints and the clock systems that feed the time to real - time systems . A model for real-time system based on LAN communication is presented in

Approaching near real-time biosensing: microfluidic microsphere based biosensor for real-time analyte detection.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Noa; Sabhachandani, Pooja; Golberg, Alexander; Konry, Tania

2015-04-15

In this study we describe a simple lab-on-a-chip (LOC) biosensor approach utilizing well mixed microfluidic device and a microsphere-based assay capable of performing near real-time diagnostics of clinically relevant analytes such cytokines and antibodies. We were able to overcome the adsorption kinetics reaction rate-limiting mechanism, which is diffusion-controlled in standard immunoassays, by introducing the microsphere-based assay into well-mixed yet simple microfluidic device with turbulent flow profiles in the reaction regions. The integrated microsphere-based LOC device performs dynamic detection of the analyte in minimal amount of biological specimen by continuously sampling micro-liter volumes of sample per minute to detect dynamic changes in target analyte concentration. Furthermore we developed a mathematical model for the well-mixed reaction to describe the near real time detection mechanism observed in the developed LOC method. To demonstrate the specificity and sensitivity of the developed real time monitoring LOC approach, we applied the device for clinically relevant analytes: Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF)-α cytokine and its clinically used inhibitor, anti-TNF-α antibody. Based on the reported results herein, the developed LOC device provides continuous sensitive and specific near real-time monitoring method for analytes such as cytokines and antibodies, reduces reagent volumes by nearly three orders of magnitude as well as eliminates the washing steps required by standard immunoassays. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mixed-mode Operating System for Real-time Performance

OpenAIRE

M.M. Hasan; S. Sultana; C.K. Foo

2017-01-01

The purpose of the mixed-mode system research is to handle devices with the accuracy of real-time systems and at the same time, having all the benefits and facilities of a matured Graphic User Interface (GUI) operating system which is typically nonreal-time. This mixed-mode operating system comprising of a real-time portion and a non-real-time portion was studied and implemented to identify the feasibilities and performances in practical applications (in the context of scheduled the real-time...

IMO and stakeholders looking for improvements: Pricing system under scrutiny

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2002-01-01

Changing the way of how Ontario's electric market clearing price is established has been announced by the Independent Market Operator, in response to excessive price fluctuations following deregulation, and in spite of the considerable concern about how any change to the pricing system might affect investor confidence. To tackle the issue, an internal team was formed, with input to this team through the IMO's Marker Operations Standing Committee. The following pricing issues are considered to be in need of attention: (1) the discrepancy between real-time prices and published pre-dispatch prices; (2) the difference between prices paid for imported power and domestic power during times of shortage; (3) the inclusion of various factors, such as the additional cost of imported power in non-competitive parts of energy bills known as 'uplift charges'; (4) the failure of the market clearing price to reflect the value of power; (5) the use of non-market procedures that have an effect on price; and (6) adjustments to the offer stack designed to reduce volatility during ramp-up periods. The IMO emphasized its keen awareness of how much investor confidence is predicated on the assumption that market conditions alone will determine prices. Accordingly, its actions are guided strictly by the desire to support reliability and are not intended to be seen as intervening in the competitive market

Linux real-time framework for fusion devices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neto, Andre [Associacao Euratom-IST, Instituto de Plasmas e Fusao Nuclear, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal)], E-mail: andre.neto@cfn.ist.utl.pt; Sartori, Filippo; Piccolo, Fabio [Euratom-UKAEA, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Barbalace, Antonio [Euratom-ENEA Association, Consorzio RFX, 35127 Padova (Italy); Vitelli, Riccardo [Dipartimento di Informatica, Sistemi e Produzione, Universita di Roma, Tor Vergata, Via del Politecnico 1-00133, Roma (Italy); Fernandes, Horacio [Associacao Euratom-IST, Instituto de Plasmas e Fusao Nuclear, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal)

2009-06-15

A new framework for the development and execution of real-time codes is currently being developed and commissioned at JET. The foundations of the system are Linux, the Real Time Application Interface (RTAI) and a wise exploitation of the new i386 multi-core processors technology. The driving motivation was the need to find a real-time operating system for the i386 platform able to satisfy JET Vertical Stabilisation Enhancement project requirements: 50 {mu}s cycle time. Even if the initial choice was the VxWorks operating system, it was decided to explore an open source alternative, mostly because of the costs involved in the commercial product. The work started with the definition of a precise set of requirements and milestones to achieve: Linux distribution and kernel versions to be used for the real-time operating system; complete characterization of the Linux/RTAI real-time capabilities; exploitation of the multi-core technology; implementation of all the required and missing features; commissioning of the system. Latency and jitter measurements were compared for Linux and RTAI in both user and kernel-space. The best results were attained using the RTAI kernel solution where the time to reschedule a real-time task after an external interrupt is of 2.35 {+-} 0.35 {mu}s. In order to run the real-time codes in the kernel-space, a solution to provide user-space functionalities to the kernel modules had to be designed. This novel work provided the most common functions from the standard C library and transparent interaction with files and sockets to the kernel real-time modules. Kernel C++ support was also tested, further developed and integrated in the framework. The work has produced very convincing results so far: complete isolation of the processors assigned to real-time from the Linux non real-time activities, high level of stability over several days of benchmarking operations and values well below 3 {mu}s for task rescheduling after external interrupt. From

Linux real-time framework for fusion devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neto, Andre; Sartori, Filippo; Piccolo, Fabio; Barbalace, Antonio; Vitelli, Riccardo; Fernandes, Horacio

2009-01-01

A new framework for the development and execution of real-time codes is currently being developed and commissioned at JET. The foundations of the system are Linux, the Real Time Application Interface (RTAI) and a wise exploitation of the new i386 multi-core processors technology. The driving motivation was the need to find a real-time operating system for the i386 platform able to satisfy JET Vertical Stabilisation Enhancement project requirements: 50 μs cycle time. Even if the initial choice was the VxWorks operating system, it was decided to explore an open source alternative, mostly because of the costs involved in the commercial product. The work started with the definition of a precise set of requirements and milestones to achieve: Linux distribution and kernel versions to be used for the real-time operating system; complete characterization of the Linux/RTAI real-time capabilities; exploitation of the multi-core technology; implementation of all the required and missing features; commissioning of the system. Latency and jitter measurements were compared for Linux and RTAI in both user and kernel-space. The best results were attained using the RTAI kernel solution where the time to reschedule a real-time task after an external interrupt is of 2.35 ± 0.35 μs. In order to run the real-time codes in the kernel-space, a solution to provide user-space functionalities to the kernel modules had to be designed. This novel work provided the most common functions from the standard C library and transparent interaction with files and sockets to the kernel real-time modules. Kernel C++ support was also tested, further developed and integrated in the framework. The work has produced very convincing results so far: complete isolation of the processors assigned to real-time from the Linux non real-time activities, high level of stability over several days of benchmarking operations and values well below 3 μs for task rescheduling after external interrupt. From being the

Static Schedulers for Embedded Real-Time Systems

Science.gov (United States)

1989-12-01

Because of the need for having efficient scheduling algorithms in large scale real time systems , software engineers put a lot of effort on developing...provide static schedulers for he Embedded Real Time Systems with single processor using Ada programming language. The independent nonpreemptable...support the Computer Aided Rapid Prototyping for Embedded Real Time Systems so that we determine whether the system, as designed, meets the required

Real-time motional Stark effect in jet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alves, D.; Stephen, A.; Hawkes, N.; Dalley, S.; Goodyear, A.; Felton, R.; Joffrin, E.; Fernandes, H.

2004-01-01

The increasing importance of real-time measurements and control systems in JET experiments, regarding e.g. Internal Transport Barrier (ITB) and q-profile control, has motivated the development of a real-time motional Stark effect (MSE) system. The MSE diagnostic allows the measurement of local magnetic fields in different locations along the neutral beam path providing, therefore, local measurement of the current and q-profiles. Recently in JET, an upgrade of the MSE diagnostic has been implemented, incorporating a totally new system which allows the use of this diagnostic as a real-time control tool as well as an extended data source for off-line analysis. This paper will briefly describe the technical features of the real-time diagnostic with main focus on the system architecture, which consists of a VME crate hosting three PowerPC processor boards and a fast ADC, all connected via Front Panel Data Port (FPDP). The DSP algorithm implements a lockin-amplifier required to demodulate the JET MSE signals. Some applications for the system will be covered such as: feeding the real-time equilibrium reconstruction code (EQUINOX) and allowing the full coverage analysis of the Neutral Beam time window. A brief comparison between the real-time MSE analysis and the off-line analysis will also be presented

The non-random walk of stock prices: the long-term correlation between signs and sizes

Science.gov (United States)

La Spada, G.; Farmer, J. D.; Lillo, F.

2008-08-01

We investigate the random walk of prices by developing a simple model relating the properties of the signs and absolute values of individual price changes to the diffusion rate (volatility) of prices at longer time scales. We show that this benchmark model is unable to reproduce the diffusion properties of real prices. Specifically, we find that for one hour intervals this model consistently over-predicts the volatility of real price series by about 70%, and that this effect becomes stronger as the length of the intervals increases. By selectively shuffling some components of the data while preserving others we are able to show that this discrepancy is caused by a subtle but long-range non-contemporaneous correlation between the signs and sizes of individual returns. We conjecture that this is related to the long-memory of transaction signs and the need to enforce market efficiency.

Scala for Real-Time Systems?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schoeberl, Martin

2015-01-01

Java served well as a general-purpose language. However, during its two decades of constant change it has gotten some weight and legacy in the language syntax and the libraries. Furthermore, Java's success for real-time systems is mediocre. Scala is a modern object-oriented and functional language...... with interesting new features. Although a new language, it executes on a Java virtual machine, reusing that technology. This paper explores Scala as language for future real-time systems....

Modelling weather effects for impact analysis of residential time-of-use electricity pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, Reid; Golab, Lukasz; Rosenberg, Catherine

2017-01-01

Analyzing the impact of pricing policies such as time-of-use (TOU) is challenging in the presence of confounding factors such as weather. Motivated by a lack of consensus and model selection details in prior work, we present a methodology for modelling the effect of weather on residential electricity demand. The best model is selected according to explanatory power, out-of-sample prediction accuracy, goodness of fit and interpretability. We then evaluate the effect of mandatory TOU pricing in a local distribution company in southwestern Ontario, Canada. We use a smart meter dataset of over 20,000 households which is particularly suited to our analysis: it contains data from the summer before and after the implementation of TOU pricing in November 2011, and all customers transitioned from tiered rates to TOU rates at the same time. We find that during the summer rate season, TOU pricing results in electricity conservation across all price periods. The average demand change during on-peak and mid-peak periods is −2.6% and −2.4% respectively. Changes during off-peak periods are not statistically significant. These TOU pricing effects are less pronounced compared to previous studies, underscoring the need for clear, reproducible impact analyses which include full details about the model selection process. - Highlights: • We study models for the effect of weather on residential electricity demand. • We evaluate the effect of mandatory TOU pricing in a local distribution company in Ontario, Canada. • We find the effect of TOU pricing to be less pronounced compared to previous studies.

Towards exascale real-time RFI mitigation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Nieuwpoort, R.V.

2016-01-01

We describe the design and implementation of an extremely scalable real-time RFI mitigation method, based on the offline AOFlagger. All algorithms scale linearly in the number of samples. We describe how we implemented the flagger in the LOFAR real-time pipeline, on both CPUs and GPUs. Additionally,

Fundamental Economic Factors That Affect Housing Prices: Comparative Analysis between Kosovo and Slovenia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Visar Hoxha

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to provide strategic implications for real estate appraisers and real estate managers to know the economic determinants of housing price dynamics in Kosovo. The fundamental economic determinants of housing prices, adopted from previous studies, are Gross Domestic Product growth, demographics, real interest rates, and construction costs. The research methodology used is quantitative factor analysis. The main question addressed is, whether the conventional fundamental determinants of housing prices, such as Gross Domestic Product per capita, real interest rates, demographic factors, and construction costs have driven the observed housing prices in Kosovo. By sampling the determinants of housing prices in Kosovo, the study shows their effects on housing price dynamics. The study shows that housing prices in Kosovo are significantly determined by the underlying conventional fundamentals. This is the first research that tries to determine whether the fundamental economic factors influence the housing prices in Kosovo.

Time-Optimal Real-Time Test Case Generation using UPPAAL

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hessel, Anders; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Nielsen, Brian

2004-01-01

Testing is the primary software validation technique used by industry today, but remains ad hoc, error prone, and very expensive. A promising improvement is to automatically generate test cases from formal models of the system under test. We demonstrate how to automatically generate real...... test purposes or generated automatically from various coverage criteria of the model.......-time conformance test cases from timed automata specifications. Specifically we demonstrate how to fficiently generate real-time test cases with optimal execution time i.e test cases that are the fastest possible to execute. Our technique allows time optimal test cases to be generated using manually formulated...

Performance evaluation of near-real-time accounting systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1981-01-01

Examples are given illustrating the application of near-real-time accounting concepts and principles to actual nuclear facilities. Experience with prototypical systems at the AGNS reprocessing plant and the Los Alamos plutonium facility is described using examples of actual data to illustrate the performance and effectiveness of near-real-time systems. The purpose of the session is to enable participants to: (1) identify the major components of near-real-time accounting systems; (2) describe qualitatively the advantages, limitations, and performance of such systems in real nuclear facilities; (3) identify process and facility design characteristics that affect the performance of near-real-time systems; and (4) describe qualitatively the steps necessary to implement a near-real-time accounting and control system in a nuclear facility

Detecting method for crude oil price fluctuation mechanism under different periodic time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Xiangyun; Fang, Wei; An, Feng; Wang, Yue

2017-01-01

Highlights: • We proposed the concept of autoregressive modes to indicate the fluctuation patterns. • We constructed transmission networks for studying the fluctuation mechanism. • There are different fluctuation mechanism under different periodic time series. • Only a few types of autoregressive modes control the fluctuations in crude oil price. • There are cluster effects during the fluctuation mechanism of autoregressive modes. - Abstract: Current existing literatures can characterize the long-term fluctuation of crude oil price time series, however, it is difficult to detect the fluctuation mechanism specifically under short term. Because each fluctuation pattern for one short period contained in a long-term crude oil price time series have dynamic characteristics of diversity; in other words, there exhibit various fluctuation patterns in different short periods and transmit to each other, which reflects the reputedly complicate and chaotic oil market. Thus, we proposed an incorporated method to detect the fluctuation mechanism, which is the evolution of the different fluctuation patterns over time from the complex network perspective. We divided crude oil price time series into segments using sliding time windows, and defined autoregressive modes based on regression models to indicate the fluctuation patterns of each segment. Hence, the transmissions between different types of autoregressive modes over time form a transmission network that contains rich dynamic information. We then capture transmission characteristics of autoregressive modes under different periodic time series through the structure features of the transmission networks. The results indicate that there are various autoregressive modes with significantly different statistical characteristics under different periodic time series. However, only a few types of autoregressive modes and transmission patterns play a major role in the fluctuation mechanism of the crude oil price, and these

Distributed Issues for Ada Real-Time Systems

Science.gov (United States)

1990-07-23

NUMBERS Distributed Issues for Ada Real - Time Systems MDA 903-87- C- 0056 S. AUTHOR(S) Thomas E. Griest 7. PERFORMING ORGANiZATION NAME(S) AND ADORESS(ES) 8...considerations. I Adding to the problem of distributed real - time systems is the issue of maintaining a common sense of time among all of the processors...because -omeone is waiting for the final output of a very large set of computations. However in real - time systems , consistent meeting of short-term

Design Specifications for Adaptive Real-Time Systems

Science.gov (United States)

1991-12-01

TICfl \\ E CT E Design Specifications for JAN’\\ 1992 Adaptive Real - Time Systems fl Randall W. Lichota U, Alice H. Muntz - December 1991 \\ \\\\/ 0 / r...268-2056 Technical Report CMU/SEI-91-TR-20 ESD-91-TR-20 December 1991 Design Specifications for Adaptive Real - Time Systems Randall W. Lichota Hughes...Design Specifications for Adaptive Real - Time Systems Abstract: The design specification method described in this report treats a software

Design Recovery Technology for Real-Time Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

1995-10-01

RL-TR-95-208 Final Technical Report October 1995 DESIGN RECOVERY TECHNOLOGY FOR REAL TIME SYSTEMS The MITRE Corporation Lester J. Holtzblatt...92 - Jan 95 4. TTTLE AND SUBTITLE DESIGN RECOVERY TECHNOLOGY FOR REAL - TIME SYSTEMS 6. AUTHOR(S) Lester J. Holtzblatt, Richard Piazza, and Susan...behavior of real - time systems in general, our initial efforts have centered on recovering this information from one system in particular, the Modular

[Real time 3D echocardiography

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, F.; Shiota, T.; Thomas, J. D.

2001-01-01

Three-dimensional representation of the heart is an old concern. Usually, 3D reconstruction of the cardiac mass is made by successive acquisition of 2D sections, the spatial localisation and orientation of which require complex guiding systems. More recently, the concept of volumetric acquisition has been introduced. A matricial emitter-receiver probe complex with parallel data processing provides instantaneous of a pyramidal 64 degrees x 64 degrees volume. The image is restituted in real time and is composed of 3 planes (planes B and C) which can be displaced in all spatial directions at any time during acquisition. The flexibility of this system of acquisition allows volume and mass measurement with greater accuracy and reproducibility, limiting inter-observer variability. Free navigation of the planes of investigation allows reconstruction for qualitative and quantitative analysis of valvular heart disease and other pathologies. Although real time 3D echocardiography is ready for clinical usage, some improvements are still necessary to improve its conviviality. Then real time 3D echocardiography could be the essential tool for understanding, diagnosis and management of patients.

Real-time communication for distributed plasma control systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luchetta, A. [Consorzio RFX, Associazione Euratom-ENEA sulla Fusione, Corso Stati Uniti 4, Padova 35127 (Italy)], E-mail: adriano.luchetta@igi.cnr.it; Barbalace, A.; Manduchi, G.; Soppelsa, A.; Taliercio, C. [Consorzio RFX, Associazione Euratom-ENEA sulla Fusione, Corso Stati Uniti 4, Padova 35127 (Italy)

2008-04-15

Real-time control applications will benefit in the near future from the enhanced performance provided by multi-core processor architectures. Nevertheless real-time communication will continue to be critical in distributed plasma control systems where the plant under control typically is distributed over a wide area. At RFX-mod real-time communication is crucial for hard real-time plasma control, due to the distributed architecture of the system, which consists of several VMEbus stations. The system runs under VxWorks and uses Gigabit Ethernet for sub-millisecond real-time communication. To optimize communication in the system, a set of detailed measurements has been carried out on the target platforms (Motorola MVME5100 and MVME5500) using either the VxWorks User Datagram Protocol (UDP) stack or raw communication based on the data link layer. Measurements have been carried out also under Linux, using its UDP stack or, in alternative, RTnet, an open source hard real-time network protocol stack. RTnet runs under Xenomai or RTAI, two popular real-time extensions based on the Linux kernel. The paper reports on the measurements carried out and compares the results, showing that the performance obtained by using open source code is suitable for sub-millisecond real-time communication in plasma control.

Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Jungwook; Ratti, Ronald A.

2008-01-01

Oil price shocks have a statistically significant impact on real stock returns contemporaneously and/or within the following month in the U.S. and 13 European countries over 1986:1-2005:12. Norway as an oil exporter shows a statistically significantly positive response of real stock returns to an oil price increase. The median result from variance decomposition analysis is that oil price shocks account for a statistically significant 6% of the volatility in real stock returns. For many European countries, but not for the U.S., increased volatility of oil prices significantly depresses real stock returns. The contribution of oil price shocks to variability in real stock returns in the U.S. and most other countries is greater than that of interest rate. An increase in real oil price is associated with a significant increase in the short-term interest rate in the U.S. and eight out of 13 European countries within one or two months. Counter to findings for the U.S. and for Norway, there is little evidence of asymmetric effects on real stock returns of positive and negative oil price shocks for oil importing European countries. (author)

Managing risks of market price uncertainty for a microgrid operation

Science.gov (United States)

Raghavan, Sriram

After deregulation of electricity in the United States, the day-ahead and real-time markets allow load serving entities and generation companies to bid and purchase/sell energy under the supervision of the independent system operator (ISO). The electricity market prices are inherently uncertain, and can be highly volatile. The main objective of this thesis is to hedge against the risk from the uncertainty of the market prices when purchasing/selling energy from/to the market. The energy manager can also schedule distributed generators (DGs) and storage of the microgrid to meet the demand, in addition to energy transactions from the market. The risk measure used in this work is the variance of the uncertain market purchase/sale cost/revenue, assuming the price following a Gaussian distribution. Using Markowitz optimization, the risk is minimized to find the optimal mix of purchase from the markets. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer quadratic program. The microgrid at Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT) in Chicago, IL was used as a case study. The result of this work reveals the tradeoff faced by the microgrid energy manager between minimizing the risk and minimizing the mean of the total operating cost (TOC) of the microgrid. With this information, the microgrid energy manager can make decisions in the day-ahead and real-time markets according to their risk aversion preference. The assumption of market prices following Gaussian distribution is also verified to be reasonable for the purpose of hedging against their risks. This is done by comparing the result of the proposed formulation with that obtained from the sample market prices randomly generated using the distribution of actual historic market price data.

Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rzeznik, Aleksandra

This thesis consists of three essays investigating financial and real estate markets and identifying a relationship between them. A 2008 financial crises provides a perfect example of sizeable interactions between US housing market and equity prices, where a negative shock to house prices trigger...... a word-wide recession. Therefore, understanding forces driving investors behaviour and preferences, which in turn affect asset prices in both equity and housing market are of great interest....

Real-time quasi-3D tomographic reconstruction

Science.gov (United States)

Buurlage, Jan-Willem; Kohr, Holger; Palenstijn, Willem Jan; Joost Batenburg, K.

2018-06-01

Developments in acquisition technology and a growing need for time-resolved experiments pose great computational challenges in tomography. In addition, access to reconstructions in real time is a highly demanded feature but has so far been out of reach. We show that by exploiting the mathematical properties of filtered backprojection-type methods, having access to real-time reconstructions of arbitrarily oriented slices becomes feasible. Furthermore, we present , software for visualization and on-demand reconstruction of slices. A user of can interactively shift and rotate slices in a GUI, while the software updates the slice in real time. For certain use cases, the possibility to study arbitrarily oriented slices in real time directly from the measured data provides sufficient visual and quantitative insight. Two such applications are discussed in this article.

An algorithm for learning real-time automata

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verwer, S.E.; De Weerdt, M.M.; Witteveen, C.

2007-01-01

We describe an algorithm for learning simple timed automata, known as real-time automata. The transitions of real-time automata can have a temporal constraint on the time of occurrence of the current symbol relative to the previous symbol. The learning algorithm is similar to the redblue fringe

Fuzzy time-series based on Fibonacci sequence for stock price forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Tai-Liang; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Jong Teoh, Hia

2007-07-01

Time-series models have been utilized to make reasonably accurate predictions in the areas of stock price movements, academic enrollments, weather, etc. For promoting the forecasting performance of fuzzy time-series models, this paper proposes a new model, which incorporates the concept of the Fibonacci sequence, the framework of Song and Chissom's model and the weighted method of Yu's model. This paper employs a 5-year period TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) stock price data and a 13-year period of TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) stock index data as experimental datasets. By comparing our forecasting performances with Chen's (Forecasting enrollments based on fuzzy time-series. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 81 (1996) 311-319), Yu's (Weighted fuzzy time-series models for TAIEX forecasting. Physica A 349 (2004) 609-624) and Huarng's (The application of neural networks to forecast fuzzy time series. Physica A 336 (2006) 481-491) models, we conclude that the proposed model surpasses in accuracy these conventional fuzzy time-series models.

When do relative prices matter for measuring income inequality? The case of food prices in Mozambique

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arndt, Channing; Jones, Edward Samuel; Salvucci, Vincenzo

2015-01-01

are accounted for, inequality of real consumption increases substantially. We obtain this result by constructing a price deflator that reflects divergent price dynamics of different product categories. Since the main factors driving this result prevail in other developing countries, it is likely that inequality...

De toekomst van Real Time Intelligence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Broek, J. van den; Berg, C.H. van den

2013-01-01

Al direct vanaf de start van de Nationale Politie is gewerkt aan het opzetten van tien real-time intelligence centra in Nederland. Van daaruit worden 24 uur per dag en zeven dagen in de week agenten op straat actief ondersteund met real-time informatie bij de melding waar ze op af gaan. In de visie

Real-Time Parameter Identification

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Armstrong researchers have implemented in the control room a technique for estimating in real time the aerodynamic parameters that describe the stability and control...

Real time process algebra with time-dependent conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baeten, J.C.M.; Middelburg, C.A.

We extend the main real time version of ACP presented in [6] with conditionals in which the condition depends on time. This extension facilitates flexible dependence of proccess behaviour on initialization time. We show that the conditions concerned generalize the conditions introduced earlier

Compiling models into real-time systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dormoy, J.L.; Cherriaux, F.; Ancelin, J.

1992-08-01

This paper presents an architecture for building real-time systems from models, and model-compiling techniques. This has been applied for building a real-time model-based monitoring system for nuclear plants, called KSE, which is currently being used in two plants in France. We describe how we used various artificial intelligence techniques for building it: a model-based approach, a logical model of its operation, a declarative implementation of these models, and original knowledge-compiling techniques for automatically generating the real-time expert system from those models. Some of those techniques have just been borrowed from the literature, but we had to modify or invent other techniques which simply did not exist. We also discuss two important problems, which are often underestimated in the artificial intelligence literature: size, and errors. Our architecture, which could be used in other applications, combines the advantages of the model-based approach with the efficiency requirements of real-time applications, while in general model-based approaches present serious drawbacks on this point

Compiling models into real-time systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dormoy, J.L.; Cherriaux, F.; Ancelin, J.

1992-08-01

This paper presents an architecture for building real-time systems from models, and model-compiling techniques. This has been applied for building a real-time model-base monitoring system for nuclear plants, called KSE, which is currently being used in two plants in France. We describe how we used various artificial intelligence techniques for building it: a model-based approach, a logical model of its operation, a declarative implementation of these models, and original knowledge-compiling techniques for automatically generating the real-time expert system from those models. Some of those techniques have just been borrowed from the literature, but we had to modify or invent other techniques which simply did not exist. We also discuss two important problems, which are often underestimated in the artificial intelligence literature: size, and errors. Our architecture, which could be used in other applications, combines the advantages of the model-based approach with the efficiency requirements of real-time applications, while in general model-based approaches present serious drawbacks on this point

Real Time Linux - The RTOS for Astronomy?

Science.gov (United States)

Daly, P. N.

The BoF was attended by about 30 participants and a free CD of real time Linux-based upon RedHat 5.2-was available. There was a detailed presentation on the nature of real time Linux and the variants for hard real time: New Mexico Tech's RTL and DIAPM's RTAI. Comparison tables between standard Linux and real time Linux responses to time interval generation and interrupt response latency were presented (see elsewhere in these proceedings). The present recommendations are to use RTL for UP machines running the 2.0.x kernels and RTAI for SMP machines running the 2.2.x kernel. Support, both academically and commercially, is available. Some known limitations were presented and the solutions reported e.g., debugging and hardware support. The features of RTAI (scheduler, fifos, shared memory, semaphores, message queues and RPCs) were described. Typical performance statistics were presented: Pentium-based oneshot tasks running > 30kHz, 486-based oneshot tasks running at ~ 10 kHz, periodic timer tasks running in excess of 90 kHz with average zero jitter peaking to ~ 13 mus (UP) and ~ 30 mus (SMP). Some detail on kernel module programming, including coding examples, were presented showing a typical data acquisition system generating simulated (random) data writing to a shared memory buffer and a fifo buffer to communicate between real time Linux and user space. All coding examples were complete and tested under RTAI v0.6 and the 2.2.12 kernel. Finally, arguments were raised in support of real time Linux: it's open source, free under GPL, enables rapid prototyping, has good support and the ability to have a fully functioning workstation capable of co-existing hard real time performance. The counter weight-the negatives-of lack of platforms (x86 and PowerPC only at present), lack of board support, promiscuous root access and the danger of ignorance of real time programming issues were also discussed. See ftp://orion.tuc.noao.edu/pub/pnd/rtlbof.tgz for the StarOffice overheads

Detecting Chaos from Agricultural Product Price Time Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Su

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Analysis of the characteristics of agricultural product price volatility and trend forecasting are necessary to formulate and implement agricultural price control policies. Taking wholesale cabbage prices as an example, a multiple test methodology has been adopted to identify the nonlinearity, fractality, and chaos of the data. The approaches used include the R/S analysis, the BDS test, the power spectra, the recurrence plot, the largest Lyapunov exponent, the Kolmogorov entropy, and the correlation dimension. The results show that there is chaos in agricultural wholesale price data, which provides a good theoretical basis for selecting reasonable forecasting models as prediction techniques based on chaos theory can be applied to forecasting agricultural prices.

Pricing and Timing Strategies for New Product Using Agent-Based Simulation of Behavioural Consumers

OpenAIRE

Keeheon Lee; Hoyeop Lee; Chang Ouk Kim

2014-01-01

In this study, we are interested in the problem of determining the pricing and timing strategies of a new product by developing an agent-based product diffusion simulation. In the proposed simulation model, agents imitate behavioural consumers, who are reference dependent and risk averse in the evaluation of new products and whose interactions create word-of-mouth regarding new products. Pricing and timing strategies involve the timing of a new product release, the timing of providing a disco...

The third oil price surge. What's different this time?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kesicki, Fabian

2010-01-01

The period from 2003 to 2008 was marked by an oil price increase comparable to the two oil price crises in the 1970s. This paper looks in detail at the situation of the oil price crises 30 years ago and compares them along various aspects on the demand and supply side with the recent price increase to identify similarities and differences. While both oil price crises in 1973 and 1979/1980 were ultimately caused by supply actions of members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), all three oil price crises were preceded by high demand growth. Other aspects that favoured a high oil price in all three cases were low investments in new oil fields, as a consequence low spare capacity, and a weak US dollar. In addition, the recent oil price surge has been characterised by a high global refinery utilisation and refineries that did not adapt fast enough to the rising demand for lighter oil products. Moreover, broader geopolitical uncertainties, combined with risks associated with the oil trade helped push the oil price into a triple-digit zone. Speculation played only a limited and temporary role in accelerating price movements during the recent price increase. (author)

Technology Timing and Pricing In the Presence of an Installed Base

OpenAIRE

Qiu_Hong Wang; Kai-Lung Hui

2005-01-01

This paper studies a vendor.s timing and pricing strategies to tackle its own installed base when selling a newly improved product. We characterize the market with either a partly- or fully- covered installed base, consumers. relative willingness to pay for the newly improved version of the product, and their relative payoffs from delayed purchase. Instead of using the conventional assumption of constant consumer reservation price, we propose that if consumers already own an existing (old) ve...

A Programmable Microkernel for Real-Time Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2003-06-01

A Programmable Microkernel for Real - Time Systems Christoph M. Kirsch Thomas A. Henzinger Marco A.A. Sanvido Report No. UCB/CSD-3-1250 June 2003...TITLE AND SUBTITLE A Programmable Microkernel for Real - Time Systems 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S...THIS PAGE unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 A Programmable Microkernel for Real - Time Systems ∗ Christoph M

Real-time object-oriented programming: studies and proposals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fouquier, Gilles

1996-01-01

This thesis contributes to the introduction of real-time features in object-oriented programming. Object-oriented programming favours modularity and reusability. Therefore, its application to real-time introduces many theoretical and conceptual problems. To deal with these problems, a new real-time object-oriented programming model is presented. This model is based on the active object model which allows concurrence and maintains the encapsulation property. The real-time aspect is treated by replacing the concept of task by the concept of method processing and by associating a real-time constraint to each message (priority or deadline). The set of all the running methods is scheduled. This model, called ATOME, contains several sub-models to deal with the usual concurrence control integrating their priority and deadline processing. The classical HPF and EDF scheduling avoid priority or deadline inversion. This model and its variants are new proposals to program real-time applications in the object-oriented way, therefore easing reusability and code writing. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated by extending and existing active object-based language to real-time, in using the rules defined in the ATOME model. (author) [fr

Real-time simulation of large-scale floods

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Q.; Qin, Y.; Li, G. D.; Liu, Z.; Cheng, D. J.; Zhao, Y. H.

2016-08-01

According to the complex real-time water situation, the real-time simulation of large-scale floods is very important for flood prevention practice. Model robustness and running efficiency are two critical factors in successful real-time flood simulation. This paper proposed a robust, two-dimensional, shallow water model based on the unstructured Godunov- type finite volume method. A robust wet/dry front method is used to enhance the numerical stability. An adaptive method is proposed to improve the running efficiency. The proposed model is used for large-scale flood simulation on real topography. Results compared to those of MIKE21 show the strong performance of the proposed model.

Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lizardo, Radhames A.; Mollick, Andre V.

2010-01-01

Adding oil prices to the monetary model of exchange rates, we find that oil prices significantly explain movements in the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) against major currencies from the 1970s to 2008. Our long-run and forecasting results are remarkably consistent with an oil-exchange rate relationship. Increases in real oil prices lead to a significant depreciation of the USD against net oil exporter currencies, such as Canada, Mexico, and Russia. On the other hand, the currencies of oil importers, such as Japan, depreciate relative to the USD when the real oil price goes up. (author)

Mechatronic modeling of real-time wheel-rail contact

CERN Document Server

Bosso, Nicola; Gugliotta, Antonio; Somà, Aurelio

2013-01-01

Real-time simulations of the behaviour of a rail vehicle require realistic solutions of the wheel-rail contact problem which can work in a real-time mode. Examples of such solutions for the online mode have been well known and are implemented within standard and commercial tools for the simulation codes for rail vehicle dynamics. This book is the result of the research activities carried out by the Railway Technology Lab of the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at Politecnico di Torino. This book presents work on the project for the development of a real-time wheel-rail contact model and provides the simulation results obtained with dSpace real-time hardware. Besides this, the implementation of the contact model for the development of a real-time model for the complex mechatronic system of a scaled test rig is presented in this book and may be useful for the further validation of the real-time contact model with experiments on a full scale test rig.

Impact of speculator's expectations of returns and time scales of investment on crude oil price behaviors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Ling-Yun; Fan, Ying; Wei, Yi-Ming

2009-01-01

Based on time series of crude oil prices (daily spot), this paper analyses price fluctuation with two significant parameters τ (speculators' time scales of investment) and ε (speculators' expectations of return) by using Zipf analysis technique, specifically, by mapping τ-returns of prices into 3-alphabeted sequences (absolute frequencies) and 2-alphabeted sequences (relative frequencies), containing the fundamental information of price fluctuations. This paper empirically explores parameters and identifies various types of speculators' cognition patterns of price behavior. In order to quantify the degree of distortion, a feasible reference is proposed: an ideal speculator. Finally, this paper discusses the similarities and differences between those cognition patterns of speculators' and those of an ideal speculator. The resultant analyses identify the possible distortion of price behaviors by their patterns. (author)

Optimal Pricing Strategy for New Products

OpenAIRE

Trichy V. Krishnan; Frank M. Bass; Dipak C. Jain

1999-01-01

Robinson and Lakhani (1975) initiated a long research stream in marketing when they used the Bass model (1969) to develop optimal pricing path for a new product. A careful analysis of the extant literature reveals that the research predominantly suggests that the optimal price path should be largely based on the sales growth pattern. However, in the real world we rarely find new products that have such pricing pattern. We observe either a monotonically declining pricing pattern or an increase...

Internet-accessible real-time weather information system

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Desai, R.G.P.; Joseph, A.; Desa, E.; Mehra, P.; Desa, E.; Gouveia, A.D.

An internet-accessible real-time weather information system has been developed. This system provides real-time accessibility to weather information from a multitude of spatially distributed weather stations. The Internet connectivity also offers...

Expectations, learning, and the changing relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Milani, Fabio [Department of Economics, 3151 Social Science Plaza, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-5100 (United States)

2009-11-15

This paper estimates a structural general equilibrium model to investigate the changing relationship between the oil price and macroeconomic variables. The oil price, through the role of oil in production and consumption, affects aggregate demand and supply in the model. The assumption of rational expectations is relaxed in favor of learning. Oil prices, therefore, affect the economy through an additional channel, i.e. through their effect on the formation of agents' beliefs. The estimated learning dynamics indicates that economic agents' perceptions about the effects of oil prices on the economy have changed over time: oil prices were perceived to have large effects on output and inflation in the 1970s, but only milder effects after the mid-1980s. Since expectations play a large role in the determination of output and inflation, the effects of oil price increases on expectations can magnify the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks. In the estimated model, in fact, the implied responses of output and inflation to oil price shocks were much more pronounced in the 1970s than in 2008. Therefore, through the time variation in the impact of oil prices on beliefs, the paper can successfully explain the observed weakening of the effects of oil price shocks on real activity and inflation. (author)

Expectations, learning, and the changing relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milani, Fabio

2009-01-01

This paper estimates a structural general equilibrium model to investigate the changing relationship between the oil price and macroeconomic variables. The oil price, through the role of oil in production and consumption, affects aggregate demand and supply in the model. The assumption of rational expectations is relaxed in favor of learning. Oil prices, therefore, affect the economy through an additional channel, i.e. through their effect on the formation of agents' beliefs. The estimated learning dynamics indicates that economic agents' perceptions about the effects of oil prices on the economy have changed over time: oil prices were perceived to have large effects on output and inflation in the 1970s, but only milder effects after the mid-1980s. Since expectations play a large role in the determination of output and inflation, the effects of oil price increases on expectations can magnify the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks. In the estimated model, in fact, the implied responses of output and inflation to oil price shocks were much more pronounced in the 1970s than in 2008. Therefore, through the time variation in the impact of oil prices on beliefs, the paper can successfully explain the observed weakening of the effects of oil price shocks on real activity and inflation. (author)

Do Urban Rail Transit Facilities Affect Housing Prices? Evidence from China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xu Zhang

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Urban rail transit facilities play a critical role in citizen’s social activities (e.g., residence, work and education. Using panel data on housing prices and urban rail transit facilities for 35 Chinese cities for 2002 to 2013, this study constructs a panel data model to evaluate the effect of rail transit facilities on housing prices quantitatively. A correlation test reveals significant correlations between housing prices and rail transit facilities. Empirical results demonstrate that rail transit facilities can markedly elevate real estate prices. Quantitatively, a 1% increase in rail transit mileage improves housing prices by 0.0233%. The results highlight the importance of other factors (e.g., per capita GDP, land price, investment in real estate and population density in determining housing prices. We also assess the effects of expectations of new rail transit lines on housing prices, and the results show that expectation effects are insignificant. These findings encourage Chinese policy makers to take rail transit facilities into account in achieving sustainable development of real estate markets.

Automated real-time software development

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Denise R.; Walker, Carrie K.; Turkovich, John J.

1993-01-01

A Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) system has been developed at the Charles Stark Draper Laboratory (CSDL) under the direction of the NASA Langley Research Center. The CSDL CASE tool provides an automated method of generating source code and hard copy documentation from functional application engineering specifications. The goal is to significantly reduce the cost of developing and maintaining real-time scientific and engineering software while increasing system reliability. This paper describes CSDL CASE and discusses demonstrations that used the tool to automatically generate real-time application code.

Integration of capacity, pricing, and lead-time decisions in a decentralized supply chain

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhu, Stuart X.

We consider a decentralized supply chain consisting of a supplier and a retailer facing price- and lead-time-sensitive demand. The decision process is modelled by a Stackelberg game where the supplier, as a leader, determines the capacity and the wholesale price, and the retailer, as a follower,

Geomagnetic Observatory Data for Real-Time Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Love, J. J.; Finn, C. A.; Rigler, E. J.; Kelbert, A.; Bedrosian, P.

2015-12-01

The global network of magnetic observatories represents a unique collective asset for the scientific community. Historically, magnetic observatories have supported global magnetic-field mapping projects and fundamental research of the Earth's interior and surrounding space environment. More recently, real-time data streams from magnetic observatories have become an important contributor to multi-sensor, operational monitoring of evolving space weather conditions, especially during magnetic storms. In this context, the U.S. Geological Survey (1) provides real-time observatory data to allied space weather monitoring projects, including those of NOAA, the U.S. Air Force, NASA, several international agencies, and private industry, (2) collaborates with Schlumberger to provide real-time geomagnetic data needed for directional drilling for oil and gas in Alaska, (3) develops products for real-time evaluation of hazards for the electric-power grid industry that are associated with the storm-time induction of geoelectric fields in the Earth's conducting lithosphere. In order to implement strategic priorities established by the USGS Natural Hazards Mission Area and the National Science and Technology Council, and with a focus on developing new real-time products, the USGS is (1) leveraging data management protocols already developed by the USGS Earthquake Program, (2) developing algorithms for mapping geomagnetic activity, a collaboration with NASA and NOAA, (3) supporting magnetotelluric surveys and developing Earth conductivity models, a collaboration with Oregon State University and the NSF's EarthScope Program, (4) studying the use of geomagnetic activity maps and Earth conductivity models for real-time estimation of geoelectric fields, (5) initiating geoelectric monitoring at several observatories, (6) validating real-time estimation algorithms against historical geomagnetic and geoelectric data. The success of these long-term projects is subject to funding constraints

Real-time earthquake data feasible

Science.gov (United States)

Bush, Susan

Scientists agree that early warning devices and monitoring of both Hurricane Hugo and the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption saved thousands of lives. What would it take to develop this sort of early warning and monitoring system for earthquake activity?Not all that much, claims a panel assigned to study the feasibility, costs, and technology needed to establish a real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) system. The panel, drafted by the National Academy of Science's Committee on Seismology, has presented its findings in Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring. The recently released report states that “present technology is entirely capable of recording and processing data so as to provide real-time information, enabling people to mitigate somewhat the earthquake disaster.” RTEM systems would consist of two parts—an early warning system that would give a few seconds warning before severe shaking, and immediate postquake information within minutes of the quake that would give actual measurements of the magnitude. At this time, however, this type of warning system has not been addressed at the national level for the United States and is not included in the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program, according to the report.

The impact of oil-price shocks on Hawaii's economy: A case study using vector autoregression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gopalakrishnan, C.; Tian, X.; Tran, D.

1991-01-01

The effects of oil-price shocks on the macroeconomic performance of a non-oil-producing, oil-importing state are studied in terms of Hawaii's experience (1974-1986) using Vector Autoregression (VAR). The VAR model contains three macrovariables-real oil price, interest rate, and real GNP, and three regional variable-total civilian labor force, Honolulu consumer price index, and real personal income. The results suggested that oil-price shock had a positive effect on interest rate as well as local price (i.e., higher interest and higher local price), but a negative influence on real GNP. The negative income effect, however, was offset by the positive employment effect. The price of oil was found to be exogenous to all other variables in the system. The macrovariables exerted a pronounced impact on Hawaii's economy, most notably on consumer price

Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian

2009-01-01

We propose an approach to automatic verification of real-time systems against scenario-based requirements. A real-time system is modeled as a network of Timed Automata (TA), and a scenario-based requirement is specified as a Live Sequence Chart (LSC). We define a trace-based semantics for a kernel...... subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a real-time system against a scenario-based requirement reduces to a classical real-time model checking...

On the value and price-responsiveness of ramp-constrained storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faghih, Ali; Roozbehani, Mardavij; Dahleh, Munther A.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Derived the optimal policy and value function for ramp-constrained storage. • Gave analytic bound on long-term value, and explicit formulas for policy thresholds. • Value of storage saturates as capacity increases, regardless of price volatility. • In expectation, storage can induce high price elasticity near the mean price. • The buy/sell phase transition region in the price-state plane is steep. - Abstract: The primary concerns of this paper are twofold: understanding the value of storage in the presence of ramp constraints and exogenous energy prices, and understanding the implications of the associated optimal storage management policy for qualitative and quantitative characteristics of storage response to real-time prices. The optimal policy, along with the associated finite-horizon time-averaged value of storage, are analytically characterized in this paper. An analytical upper bound on the infinite-horizon time-averaged value of storage is also derived. This bound is valid for any achievable realization of prices when the support of the distribution is fixed, and highlights the dependence of the value of storage on ramp constraints and storage capacity. It is shown that while the value of storage is a non-decreasing function of price volatility, due to the finite ramp rate, the value of storage saturates quickly as the capacity increases, regardless of volatility. To study the implications of the optimal policy, computational experiments are presented that suggest optimal utilization of storage can, in expectation, induce a considerable amount of price elasticity near the average price. Then, a computational framework is presented for characterization of the behavior of storage as a function of price and the state of charge, which illustrates a steep buy/sell phase transition in the price-state plane

Real-time UNIX in HEP data acquisition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buono, S.; Gaponenko, I.; Jones, R.; Mapelli, L.; Mornacchi, G.; Prigent, D.; Sanchez-Corral, E.; Skiadelli, M.; Toppers, A.; Duval, P.Y.; Ferrato, D.; Le Van Suu, A.; Qian, Z.; Rondot, C.; Ambrosini, G.; Fumagalli, G.; Aguer, M.; Huet, M.

1994-01-01

Today's experimentation in high energy physics is characterized by an increasing need for sensitivity to rare phenomena and complex physics signatures, which require the use of huge and sophisticated detectors and consequently a high performance readout and data acquisition. Multi-level triggering, hierarchical data collection and an always increasing amount of processing power, distributed throughout the data acquisition layers, will impose a number of features on the software environment, especially the need for a high level of standardization. Real-time UNIX seems, today, the best solution for the platform independence, operating system interface standards and real-time features necessary for data acquisition in HEP experiments. We present the results of the evaluation, in a realistic application environment, of a Real-Time UNIX operating system: the EP/LX real-time UNIX system. ((orig.))

A restructuring agenda for developing competitive retail electric markets that is based on a low-cost, real-time, smart-kilowatt-hour meter adapter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chasek, N.E.

1997-01-01

This paper proposes six agenda items that should expedite a politically smooth transition into a most efficient economically viable market-driven public power system. The agenda would introduce: the virtual marketplace for retail electric power, smart meters, smart meter readers, near-real-time load balancing and load apportionment, advanced supply and demand or commodity-style pricing, and reliability metering

Temporal Specification and Verification of Real-Time Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

1991-08-30

of concrete real - time systems can be modeled adequately. Specification: We present two conservative extensions of temporal logic that allow for the...logic. We present both model-checking algorithms for the automatic verification of finite-state real - time systems and proof methods for the deductive verification of real - time systems .

ClockWork: a Real-Time Feasibility Analysis Tool

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jansen, P.G.; Hanssen, F.T.Y.; Mullender, Sape J.

ClockWork shows that we can improve the flexibility and efficiency of real-time kernels. We do this by proposing methods for scheduling based on so-called Real-Time Transactions. ClockWork uses Real-Time Transactions which allow scheduling decisions to be taken by the system. A programmer does not

Dynamic cyclical comovements of oil prices with industrial production, consumer prices, unemployment, and stock prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ewing, Bradley T.; Thompson, Mark A.

2007-01-01

This paper examines the empirical relationship between oil prices and several key macroeconomic variables. In particular, we investigate the cyclical comovements of crude oil prices with output, consumer prices, unemployment, and stock prices. The methodology involves the use of the Hodrick-Prescott [Hodrick, R.J., Prescott, E.C., 1980. Post-War US Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation. Working Paper, Carnegie Mellon University] and Baxter-King [Baxter, M., King, R.G., 1999. Measuring business cycles: approximate band-pass filters for economic time series. Review of Economics and Statistics 81, 575-593] filters, as well as the recently developed full-sample asymmetric Christiano-Fitzgerald [Christiano, L.J., Fitzgerald, T.J., 2003. The band pass filter. International Economic Review 44, 435-465] band-pass filter. Contemporaneous and cross-correlation estimates are made using the stationary cyclical components of the time series to make inference about the degree to which oil prices move with the cycle. Besides documenting a number of important cyclical relationships using three different time series filtering methods, the results suggest that crude oil prices are procyclical and lag industrial production. Additionally, we find that oil prices lead consumer prices. (author)

PRICES - PREREQUISITE OF MARKET DEVELOPMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

VĂDUVA MARIA

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Prices are the key points of transfer and interactions. Balance means knowing the real demand and adapting thier supply at its level and structure. In studying the prices, the knowledge of economic content and the mechanism of their formation in exchange process is a crucial prerequisites to accomplish the transition from theoretical foundations to practical foundations of concrete modalities, of pricing techniques. If demand can assimilate the production of considered enterprises, then the manufacturer is concerned to determine that level of production for which will get maximum profit, profitability threshold, elasticity of supply compared with the price, to choose the best outlet. Price depends on the intersection of demand and supply

Orphan Drug Pricing: An Original Exponential Model Relating Price to the Number of Patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Messori

2016-10-01

Full Text Available In managing drug prices at the national level, orphan drugs represent a special case because the price of these agents is higher than that determined according to value-based principles. A common practice is to set the orphan drug price in an inverse relationship with the number of patients, so that the price increases as the number of patients decreases. Determination of prices in this context generally has a purely empirical nature, but a theoretical basis would be needed. The present paper describes an original exponential model that manages the relationship between price and number of patients for orphan drugs. Three real examples are analysed in detail (eculizumab, bosentan, and a data set of 17 orphan drugs published in 2010. These analyses have been aimed at identifying some objective criteria to rationally inform this relationship between prices and patients and at converting these criteria into explicit quantitative rules.

Failure analysis of real-time systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jalashgar, A.; Stoelen, K.

1998-01-01

This paper highlights essential aspects of real-time software systems that are strongly related to the failures and their course of propagation. The significant influence of means-oriented and goal-oriented system views in the description, understanding and analysing of those aspects is elaborated. The importance of performing failure analysis prior to reliability analysis of real-time systems is equally addressed. Problems of software reliability growth models taking the properties of such systems into account are discussed. Finally, the paper presents a preliminary study of a goal-oriented approach to model the static and dynamic characteristics of real-time systems, so that the corresponding analysis can be based on a more descriptive and informative picture of failures, their effects and the possibility of their occurrence. (author)

Can Real-Time Data Also Be Climate Quality?

Science.gov (United States)

Brewer, M.; Wentz, F. J.

2015-12-01

GMI, AMSR-2 and WindSat herald a new era of highly accurate and timely microwave data products. Traditionally, there has been a large divide between real-time and re-analysis data products. What if these completely separate processing systems could be merged? Through advanced modeling and physically based algorithms, Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) has narrowed the gap between real-time and research-quality. Satellite microwave ocean products have proven useful for a wide array of timely Earth science applications. Through cloud SST capabilities have enormously benefited tropical cyclone forecasting and day to day fisheries management, to name a few. Oceanic wind vectors enhance operational safety of shipping and recreational boating. Atmospheric rivers are of import to many human endeavors, as are cloud cover and knowledge of precipitation events. Some activities benefit from both climate and real-time operational data used in conjunction. RSS has been consistently improving microwave Earth Science Data Records (ESDRs) for several decades, while making near real-time data publicly available for semi-operational use. These data streams have often been produced in 2 stages: near real-time, followed by research quality final files. Over the years, we have seen this time delay shrink from months or weeks to mere hours. As well, we have seen the quality of near real-time data improve to the point where the distinction starts to blur. We continue to work towards better and faster RFI filtering, adaptive algorithms and improved real-time validation statistics for earlier detection of problems. Can it be possible to produce climate quality data in real-time, and what would the advantages be? We will try to answer these questions…

Exploring the dynamics of financial markets: from stock prices to strategy returns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borland, Lisa

2016-01-01

Exploring the dynamics of financial time-series is an exciting and interesting challenge because of the many truly complex interactions that underly the price formation process. In this contribution we describe some of the anomalous statistical features of such time-series and review models of the price dynamics both across time and across the universe of stocks. In particular we discuss a non-Gaussian statistical feedback process of stock returns which we have developed over the past years with the particular application of option pricing. We then discuss a cooperative model for the correlations of stock dynamics which has its roots in the field of synergetics, where numerical simulations and comparisons with real data are presented. Finally we present summarized results of an empirical analysis probing the dynamics of actual trading strategy return streams.

Academic Training: Real Time Process Control - Lecture series

CERN Multimedia

Françoise Benz

2004-01-01

ACADEMIC TRAINING LECTURE REGULAR PROGRAMME 7, 8 and 9 June From 11:00 hrs to 12:00 hrs - Main Auditorium bldg. 500 Real Time Process Control T. Riesco / CERN-TS What exactly is meant by Real-time? There are several definitions of real-time, most of them contradictory. Unfortunately the topic is controversial, and there does not seem to be 100% agreement over the terminology. Real-time applications are becoming increasingly important in our daily lives and can be found in diverse environments such as the automatic braking system on an automobile, a lottery ticket system, or robotic environmental samplers on a space station. These lectures will introduce concepts and theory like basic concepts timing constraints, task scheduling, periodic server mechanisms, hard and soft real-time.ENSEIGNEMENT ACADEMIQUE ACADEMIC TRAINING Françoise Benz 73127 academic.training@cern.ch

Detection of Histoplasma capsulatum from clinical specimens by cycling probe-based real-time PCR and nested real-time PCR.

Science.gov (United States)

Muraosa, Yasunori; Toyotome, Takahito; Yahiro, Maki; Watanabe, Akira; Shikanai-Yasuda, Maria Aparecida; Kamei, Katsuhiko

2016-05-01

We developed new cycling probe-based real-time PCR and nested real-time PCR assays for the detection of Histoplasma capsulatum that were designed to detect the gene encoding N-acetylated α-linked acidic dipeptidase (NAALADase), which we previously identified as an H. capsulatum antigen reacting with sera from patients with histoplasmosis. Both assays specifically detected the DNAs of all H. capsulatum strains but not those of other fungi or human DNA. The limited of detection (LOD) of the real-time PCR assay was 10 DNA copies when using 10-fold serial dilutions of the standard plasmid DNA and 50 DNA copies when using human serum spiked with standard plasmid DNA. The nested real-time PCR improved the LOD to 5 DNA copies when using human serum spiked with standard plasmid DNA, which represents a 10-fold higher than that observed with the real-time PCR assay. To assess the ability of the two assays to diagnose histoplasmosis, we analyzed a small number of clinical specimens collected from five patients with histoplasmosis, such as sera (n = 4), formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue (n = 4), and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) (n = 1). Although clinical sensitivity of the real-time PCR assay was insufficiently sensitive (33%), the nested real-time PCR assay increased the clinical sensitivity (77%), suggesting it has a potential to be a useful method for detecting H. capsulatum DNA in clinical specimens. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The International Society for Human and Animal Mycology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Reviewing real-time performance of nuclear reactor safety systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preckshot, G.G.

1993-08-01

The purpose of this paper is to recommend regulatory guidance for reviewers examining real-time performance of computer-based safety systems used in nuclear power plants. Three areas of guidance are covered in this report. The first area covers how to determine if, when, and what prototypes should be required of developers to make a convincing demonstration that specific problems have been solved or that performance goals have been met. The second area has recommendations for timing analyses that will prove that the real-time system will meet its safety-imposed deadlines. The third area has description of means for assessing expected or actual real-time performance before, during, and after development is completed. To ensure that the delivered real-time software product meets performance goals, the paper recommends certain types of code-execution and communications scheduling. Technical background is provided in the appendix on methods of timing analysis, scheduling real-time computations, prototyping, real-time software development approaches, modeling and measurement, and real-time operating systems

Reviewing real-time performance of nuclear reactor safety systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Preckshot, G.G. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

1993-08-01

The purpose of this paper is to recommend regulatory guidance for reviewers examining real-time performance of computer-based safety systems used in nuclear power plants. Three areas of guidance are covered in this report. The first area covers how to determine if, when, and what prototypes should be required of developers to make a convincing demonstration that specific problems have been solved or that performance goals have been met. The second area has recommendations for timing analyses that will prove that the real-time system will meet its safety-imposed deadlines. The third area has description of means for assessing expected or actual real-time performance before, during, and after development is completed. To ensure that the delivered real-time software product meets performance goals, the paper recommends certain types of code-execution and communications scheduling. Technical background is provided in the appendix on methods of timing analysis, scheduling real-time computations, prototyping, real-time software development approaches, modeling and measurement, and real-time operating systems.

Connecting real-time data to algorithms and databases: EarthCube's Cloud-Hosted Real-time Data Services for the Geosciences (CHORDS)

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, M. D.; Graves, S. J.; Kerkez, B.; Chandrasekar, V.; Vernon, F.; Martin, C. L.; Maskey, M.; Keiser, K.; Dye, M. J.

2015-12-01

The Cloud-Hosted Real-time Data Services for the Geosciences (CHORDS) project was funded under the National Science Foundation's EarthCube initiative. CHORDS addresses the ever-increasing importance of real-time scientific data in the geosciences, particularly in mission critical scenarios, where informed decisions must be made rapidly. Access to constant streams of real-time data also allow many new transient phenomena in space-time to be observed, however, much of these streaming data are either completely inaccessible or only available to proprietary in-house tools or displays. Small research teams do not have the resources to develop tools for the broad dissemination of their unique real-time data and require an easy to use, scalable, cloud-based solution to facilitate this access. CHORDS will make these diverse streams of real-time data available to the broader geosciences community. This talk will highlight a recently developed CHORDS portal tools and processing systems which address some of the gaps in handling real-time data, particularly in the provisioning of data from the "long-tail" scientific community through a simple interface that is deployed in the cloud, is scalable and is able to be customized by research teams. A running portal, with operational data feeds from across the nation, will be presented. The processing within the CHORDS system will expose these real-time streams via standard services from the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) in a way that is simple and transparent to the data provider, while maximizing the usage of these investments. The ingestion of high velocity, high volume and diverse data has allowed the project to explore a NoSQL database implementation. Broad use of the CHORDS framework by geoscientists will help to facilitate adaptive experimentation, model assimilation and real-time hypothesis testing.

Energy at what price? Energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Favennec, J.P.; Amic, E.; Darmois, G.

2006-01-01

In 2005, the whole world had to stand a real energy shock due to the rise of oil, gas and electricity prices. The perspective of a possible shortage, even at the prospect of several decades, has led to a deep change of the world energy market. In this context, this book supplies a clear and didactical presentation of the mechanisms of petroleum, gas and electricity markets, with their advantages and limitations. At the time of a globalization of economy, the book analyzes the consequences of markets deregulation on the energy prices and tries to answer several main questions: why such a price volatility? Who will take the risk of investing now? Will the energy actors of the present day concentration be in a dominating position? Content: 1 - energy, markets and energy markets; 2 - crude oil and petroleum product markets; 3 - gas markets; 4 - electric power markets; 5 - perspectives. Glossary. Index. (J.S.)

The effect of real-time pricing on load shifting in a highly renewable power system dominated by generation from the renewable sources of wind and photovoltaics

Science.gov (United States)

Kies, Alexander; Brown, Tom; Schlachtberger, David; Schramm, Stefan

2017-04-01

The supply-demand imbalance is a major concern in the presence of large shares of highly variable renewable generation from sources like wind and photovoltaics (PV) in power systems. Other than the measures on the generation side, such as flexible backup generation or energy storage, sector coupling or demand side management are the most likely option to counter imbalances, therefore to ease the integration of renewable generation. Demand side management usually refers to load shifting, which comprises the reaction of electricity consumers to price fluctuations. In this work, we derive a novel methodology to model the interplay of load shifting and provided incentives via real-time pricing in highly renewable power systems. We use weather data to simulate generation from the renewable sources of wind and photovoltaics, as well as historical load data, split into different consumption categories, such as, heating, cooling, domestic, etc., to model a simplified power system. Together with renewable power forecast data, a simple market model and approaches to incorporate sector coupling [1] and load shifting [2,3], we model the interplay of incentives and load shifting for different scenarios (e.g., in dependency of the risk-aversion of consumers or the forecast horizon) and demonstrate the practical benefits of load shifting. First, we introduce the novel methodology and compare it with existing approaches. Secondly, we show results of numerical simulations on the effects of load shifting: It supports the integration of PV power by providing a storage, which characteristics can be described as "daily" and provides a significant amount of balancing potential. Lastly, we propose an experimental setup to obtain empirical data on end-consumer load-shifting behaviour in response to price incentives. References [1] Brown, T., Schlachtberger, D., Kies. A., Greiner, M., Sector coupling in a highly renewable European energy system, Proc. of the 15th International Workshop on

Virtual timers in hierarchical real-time systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heuvel, van den M.M.H.P.; Holenderski, M.J.; Cools, W.A.; Bril, R.J.; Lukkien, J.J.; Zhu, D.

2009-01-01

Hierarchical scheduling frameworks (HSFs) provide means for composing complex real-time systems from welldefined subsystems. This paper describes an approach to provide hierarchically scheduled real-time applications with virtual event timers, motivated by the need for integrating priority

PLUNGING OIL PRICES IMPACT MALAYSIA’S AND INDONESIA’S ECONOMY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chung Tin Fah

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Oil has a profound impact on the world economy. This study examines the impact of changes (falling in oil prices on the two oil producing ASEAN countries – Malaysia and Indonesia using quarterly data from 2005:Q1 to 2014:Q4. A cointegration analysis using an autoregressive distributed lag equation (ARDL is conducted between oil and the Malaysian and Indonesian economy. Next, single equations are estimated on the impact of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables, followed by a VAR formulation to trace the impact of oil price using impulse response function and variance decomposition. The single equation estimates indicate that real oil prices have a significant positive impact on Malaysia/Indonesia GDP, while it is insignificant on inflation rate and real exchange rate. Using an unrestricted VAR model, real oil price growth shocks have positive and negative response on the growth of Malaysia GDP, Indonesia GDP and US GDP. However, the negative response is found more significant for the growth of Indonesia GDP, while the growth of US GDP has a larger influence on Malaysia GDP as compared to Indonesia GDP. Changes in real oil price are less impactful on Malaysia government expenditure and Malaysian Ringgit, compared to inflation rate and net exports.

The US Shale Gas Revolution and Its Externality on Crude Oil Prices: A Counterfactual Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongxun Liu

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The expansion of shale gas production since the mid-2000s which is commonly referred to as “shale gas revolution” has had large impacts on global energy outlook. The impact is particularly substantial when it comes to the oil market because natural gas and oil are substitutes in consumption and complements and rivals in production. This paper investigates the price externality of shale gas revolution on crude oil. Applying a structural vector autoregressive model (VAR model, the effect of natural gas production on real oil price is identified in particular, and then based on the identification, counterfactuals of oil price without shale gas revolution are constructed. We find that after the expansion of shale gas production, the real West Texas Intermediate (WTI oil price is depressed by 10.22 USD/barrel on average from 2007 to 2017, and the magnitude seems to increase with time. In addition, the period before shale gas revolution is used as a “thought experiment” for placebo study. The results support the hypothesis that real WTI oil price can be reasonably reproduced by our models, and the estimated gap for oil price during 2007–2017 can be attributed to shale gas revolution. The methodology and framework can be applied to evaluate the economic impacts of other programs or policies.

Real-time video compressing under DSP/BIOS

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qiu-ping; Li, Gui-ju

2009-10-01

This paper presents real-time MPEG-4 Simple Profile video compressing based on the DSP processor. The programming framework of video compressing is constructed using TMS320C6416 Microprocessor, TDS510 simulator and PC. It uses embedded real-time operating system DSP/BIOS and the API functions to build periodic function, tasks and interruptions etcs. Realize real-time video compressing. To the questions of data transferring among the system. Based on the architecture of the C64x DSP, utilized double buffer switched and EDMA data transfer controller to transit data from external memory to internal, and realize data transition and processing at the same time; the architecture level optimizations are used to improve software pipeline. The system used DSP/BIOS to realize multi-thread scheduling. The whole system realizes high speed transition of a great deal of data. Experimental results show the encoder can realize real-time encoding of 768*576, 25 frame/s video images.

Real-time ISEE data system

Science.gov (United States)

Tsurutani, B. T.; Baker, D. N.

1979-01-01

A real-time ISEE data system directed toward predicting geomagnetic substorms and storms is discussed. Such a system may allow up to 60+ minutes advance warning of magnetospheric substorms and up to 30 minute warnings of geomagnetic storms (and other disturbances) induced by high-speed streams and solar flares. The proposed system utilizes existing capabilities of several agencies (NASA, NOAA, USAF), and thereby minimizes costs. This same concept may be applicable to data from other spacecraft, and other NASA centers; thus, each individual experimenter can receive quick-look data in real time at his or her base institution.

Real-time portable system for fabric defect detection using an ARM processor

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez-Gallego, J. A.; Yañez-Puentes, J. P.; Ortiz-Jaramillo, B.; Alvarez, J.; Orjuela-Vargas, S. A.; Philips, W.

2012-06-01

Modern textile industry seeks to produce textiles as little defective as possible since the presence of defects can decrease the final price of products from 45% to 65%. Automated visual inspection (AVI) systems, based on image analysis, have become an important alternative for replacing traditional inspections methods that involve human tasks. An AVI system gives the advantage of repeatability when implemented within defined constrains, offering more objective and reliable results for particular tasks than human inspection. Costs of automated inspection systems development can be reduced using modular solutions with embedded systems, in which an important advantage is the low energy consumption. Among the possibilities for developing embedded systems, the ARM processor has been explored for acquisition, monitoring and simple signal processing tasks. In a recent approach we have explored the use of the ARM processor for defects detection by implementing the wavelet transform. However, the computation speed of the preprocessing was not yet sufficient for real time applications. In this approach we significantly improve the preprocessing speed of the algorithm, by optimizing matrix operations, such that it is adequate for a real time application. The system was tested for defect detection using different defect types. The paper is focused in giving a detailed description of the basis of the algorithm implementation, such that other algorithms may use of the ARM operations for fast implementations.

A distributed agent architecture for real-time knowledge-based systems: Real-time expert systems project, phase 1

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, S. Daniel

1990-01-01

We propose a distributed agent architecture (DAA) that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and artificial intelligence. DAA consists of distributed agents that are classified into two categories: reactive and cognitive. Reactive agents can be implemented directly in Ada to meet hard real-time requirements and be deployed on on-board embedded processors. A traditional real-time computing methodology under consideration is the rate monotonic theory that can guarantee schedulability based on analytical methods. AI techniques under consideration for reactive agents are approximate or anytime reasoning that can be implemented using Bayesian belief networks as in Guardian. Cognitive agents are traditional expert systems that can be implemented in ART-Ada to meet soft real-time requirements. During the initial design of cognitive agents, it is critical to consider the migration path that would allow initial deployment on ground-based workstations with eventual deployment on on-board processors. ART-Ada technology enables this migration while Lisp-based technologies make it difficult if not impossible. In addition to reactive and cognitive agents, a meta-level agent would be needed to coordinate multiple agents and to provide meta-level control.

Socioeconophysics:. Opinion Dynamics for Number of Transactions and Price, a Trader Based Model

Science.gov (United States)

Tuncay, Çağlar

Involving effects of media, opinion leader and other agents on the opinion of individuals of market society, a trader based model is developed and utilized to simulate price via supply and demand. Pronounced effects are considered with several weights and some personal differences between traders are taken into account. Resulting time series and probabilty distribution function involving a power law for price come out similar to the real ones.

Structural change and forecasting long-run energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard, J.T.; Khalaf, L.

2004-01-01

Fluctuating energy prices have a significant impact on the economies of industrialized nations. A recent study has shown a strong non-linear relationship between changes in oil prices and growth in gross domestic product (GDP). In order to forecast the behaviour of energy prices, a complete model must take into account domestic and international supply and demand conditions, market regulations, technological advances and geopolitics. In 1999, Pindyck suggested that for long-term forecasting, a simple model should be adopted where prices grow in real terms and at a fixed rate. This paper tests the statistical significance of Pindyck's suggested class of econometric equations that model the behaviour of long-run real energy prices. The models assume mean-reverting prices with continuous and random changes in their level and trend. They are estimated using Kalman filtering. The authors used simulation-based procedures to address the issue of non-standard test statistics and nuisance parameters. Results were reported for a standard Monte Carlo test and a maximized Monte Carlo test. Results shown statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices, but not for crude oil prices. Various models were differentiated using out-of-sample forecasting exercises. 25 refs., 3 tabs