WorldWideScience

Sample records for real options perspective

  1. Franchise ownership redirection: real options perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Nugroho, Lukito Adi

    2016-01-01

    Background: For over 40 years, the franchise ownership redirection hypothesis has attracted the attention of many scholars. This study, differing from previous ones, proposes an alternative approach for this hypothesis using a real options framework with the extension of agency theory. Method: The real options model is built using the least square Monte Carlo method, where the franchisor's decision to franchise is perceived as a deferred investment while maintaining the right of future acquis...

  2. Real option analysis in a replicating portfolio perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Heeswijk, W.J.A.; Joosten, Reinoud A.M.G.; Huisman, Kuno; Bos, Christian

    2013-01-01

    In the last decades, a vast body of literature has arisen on real option analysis (ROA). The use of di¤erent approaches and the often implicit adoption of major assumptions may cause confusion on what ROA precisely entails, or in which situations it may be applied. We assess the �eld of real option

  3. A Real Options Perspective On R&D Portfolio Diversification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. van Bekkum (Sjoerd); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); J.T.J. Smit (Han)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThis paper shows that the conditionality of investment decisions in R&D has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and implies that traditional diversification strategies should be reevaluated when a portfolio is constructed. Real option theory argues that research projects have

  4. New perspective of real options theory for policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sadowski, B.M.

    2007-01-01

    In deze Reflectie geeft Sadowski een alternatief, of eigenlijk een aanvulling op de KBA, vanuit de real options theory, zoals die ook in de financiële sector gebruikt wordt. Het idee is dat er in dynamische markten veel ontwikkelingen zijn: technologisch, een markt in beweging of industriële

  5. A Real Options Perspective on R&D Portfolio Diversification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. van Bekkum (Sjoerd); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); J.T.J. Smit (Han)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis paper shows that the presence of conditional staging in R&D (Research & Development) has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and changes diversification arguments when a portfolio is constructed. When R&D projects exhibit option-like characteristics, correlation between projects

  6. DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE CONSTRUCTION SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN NEW ZEALAND: A REAL OPTIONS PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tran, Van

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Real Options (RO has been a universally accepted concept in a number of major industries. However, its use in the construction supply chain management (CSCM sector has been limited. Some rare supply chain management RO studies have shown a number of limitations. First, there is a lack of a rigorous theoretical RO framework pertaining specifically to CSCM. All such supply chain management RO studies are based off RO theories or models developed for other sectors (engineering, infrastructure, natural resources. And second, attempts to extend real option to wider uses in CSCM seem premature at the present. This paper reviews all recent literature pertaining to real options and real options applied specifically to the construction supply chain management area. The study proposes a research programme pertaining to CSCM in New Zealand in order to enhance the current understanding of RO in this area and in the process develop a comprehensive theory for the RO application in New Zealand CSCM.

  7. Getting real with real options

    OpenAIRE

    M. R Grasselli

    2006-01-01

    We apply a utility-based method to obtain the value of a finite-time investment opportunity when the underlying real asset is not perfectly correlated to a traded financial asset. Using a discrete-time algorithm to calculate the indifference price for this type of real option, we present numerical examples for the corresponding investment thresholds, in particular highlighting their dependence with respect to correlation and risk aversion.

  8. Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezhi Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses a real options approach to address optimal timing and size of a logistics park investment with logistics demand volatility. Two important problems are examined: when should an investment be introduced, and what size should it be? A real option model is proposed to explicitly incorporate the effect of government subsidies on logistics park investment. Logistic demand that triggers the threshold for investment in a logistics park project is explored analytically. Comparative static analyses of logistics park investment are also carried out. Our analytical results show that (1 investors will select smaller sized logistics parks and prepone the investment if government subsidies are considered; (2 the real option will postpone the optimal investment timing of logistics parks compared with net present value approach; and (3 logistic demands can significantly affect the optimal investment size and timing of logistics park investment.

  9. Acquisitions Through a Behavioral and Real Options Lens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.C.M. Kil (Joris)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis combines four studies that contribute to our understanding of corporate acquisitions by taking a behavioral and real options perspective. Chapter 2 classifies acquisitions based on real option characteristics and shows option type (single vs. compound) and option nature

  10. Towards phronetic knowledge for strategic planning in corporate real estate management: A real options approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Reedt Dortland, Maartje; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – The objective of this paper is to provide insights about the potential of real option thinking for corporate real estate management (CREM) from the owner-user perspective. A promising approach to classifying and evaluating flexibility in real estate is the real options approach. Most

  11. Valuing real options: frequently made errors

    OpenAIRE

    Fernández, Pablo

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we analyze frequently made errors when valuing real options. The best way of doing it is through examples. We start by analyzing Damodaran's proposal to value the option to expand the business of Home Depot. Some of the errors and problems of this and other approaches are: - Assuming that the option is replicable and using Black and Scholes' formula. - The estimation of the option's volatility is arbitrary and has a decisive effect on the option's value. - As there is no riskles...

  12. THE REAL OPTIONS OF CAPITAL BUDGET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lopo Martins

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The traditional techniques of capital budget, as the deducted cash flow and the net value present, do not incorporate existing flexibilities in an investment project, they tend to distort the value of certain investments, mainly those that are considered in scenes of uncertainty and risk. Therefore, this study intends to demonstrate that the Real Options Theory (TOR is a useful methodology to evaluate and to indicate the best option for project of expansion investment. To reach the considered objective the procedure method was used a case study, having as unit of case the Resort Praia Hotel do Litoral Norte of Salvador. This study was developed of the following form: first it identified the traditional net value present and later it was incorporated the volatileness of each analyzed uncertainty. Second, as the real options are analogous to the financial options, it was necessary to identify elements that composed the terminologies of the financial options with intention to get the value of the real option. For this model of options pricing of Black & Scholes jointly with a computational simulator was used (SLS to get the expanded net value present. As a result of this study it was possible to evidence that using the traditional tool of capital budget Net Value Present (VPL is negative, therefore the project of expansion of the Hotel would be rejected. While for the application of methodology TOR the project presents positive Expanded Present Value which would represent an excellent chance of investment. Key-word: Capital budget, Real options, Analysis of investments.

  13. Research into real-option evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiba, Tsuyoshi; Wakamatsu, Hitoshi

    2002-03-01

    As an evaluational method for valuation of a corporation, an investment project, a research and development, or the evaluation technique of an enterprise strategy, a real option analysis attracts attention instead of conventional Discount Cash Flow method. The reason is that it can divert the technique for the option valuation in financial engineering to the decision-making process performed according to change in investment environment. Related references, the analysis tools, the application examples, etc. were investigated about the decision-making technique using real option analysis, and this investigation considered the application method to decision-making of the research and development at Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute. Consequently, since the feature is in real option analysis being the evaluation technique on condition of that business conditions and business itself also change, the real option analysis fits for evaluation of a research and development that business conditions were opaque and it turns out that the businesses are highly flexible. Moreover, it turns out that it fits also for evaluation of a capital concentration type investment issue like power plants. (author)

  14. Euro Membership as a Real Option Trigger

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos

    2007-01-01

    -adopters (UK, Sweden, and Denmark) to exercise various forms of real options such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch suppliers, and to generally expand in the Euro-area. The study furthermore shows that small, profitable and financially constrained firms...... are particularly likely to exercise such real options triggered by the introduction of the Euro. The results go beyond the immediate trade effects, which empirical studies have shown to be weak and without trade diversion as to the three non-adopters, and provide important insights about the potential long...

  15. Acquisitions and Real Options : The Greenfield Alternative

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouthers, Keith D.; Dikova, Desislava

    P>Although acquisitions are a popular way to enter new markets, empirical evidence tends to indicate few benefits accrue to acquiring firms. This might be the case because firms use acquisitions when they should be employing an alternative mode of expansion. Applying real options theory to this

  16. The Fundamental Uncertainty of Business: Real Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, James S.

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the manner in which uncertainty is currently evaluated in business, with an emphasis on economic measures. In recent years, the accepted approach for the valuation of capital investment decisions has become one based on the theory of real options. From the standpoint of this workshop, the interesting aspect of real options is its focus on the flexibility of management to respond to changes in the environment as a feature of an alternative that has unique value, known as "option value." While this may not be surprising to most participants in this workshop, it does represent a radical change in traditional thinking about risk in business, where efforts have primarily been focused on the elimination of risk when possible.

  17. Real Options Analysis of Electricity Investments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heggedal, Ane Marte

    2012-07-01

    This thesis utilizes real options analysis for evaluating investment opportunities in the electricity sector. It also formally tests how investors in hydropower plants have included uncertainty when considering their investment opportunities. The real options method applies financial options theory to quantify the value of management flexibility and is chosen due to three important characteristics of investments in the electricity sector. First; the investment is completely or partially irreversible, second; the investor can choose when to invest in the facility, and third; there is uncertainty in several factors affecting the cash flows of the investments. Factors of uncertainty include the development of electricity prices, policies, technological advances, and macroeconomics measures.Four papers are included in this thesis. Paper 1, Upgrading hydropower plants with storage: Timing and capacity choice, presents a valuation framework for deciding when to upgrade an existing hydropower plant and which capacity to choose. The second paper, Transmission capacity between Norway and Germany: A real options analysis, sheds light on when two electricity markets, in this case Norway and Germany, should be connected through a sub sea cable. The investor can choose when to invest and the capacity of the cable, and may also choose to invest sequentially. Paper 3, Optimal timing and capacity choice for pumped hydropower storage, investigates when investment in a pumped hydropower plant with storage should be undertaken and what the capacity of the facility should be. Whereas the three first papers investigate investment opportunities, Paper 4, Uncertain climate policy decisions and investment timing: Evidence from small hydropower plants, studies when investors in small hydropower plants chose to invest. The analyses disclose whether the net present value approach or the real options method best describe the investment decisions made by the investors. Viewing investment

  18. Real Options Analysis of Mining Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Rudolf Zdravlje

    2011-01-01

    When long life assets are being evaluated based on constant predictions of future variables and the assumptions of zero management flexibility, is value being missed? In project evaluation today, the most common evaluation methods that calculate a net present value are discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, decision tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. A fourth method, which is beginning to gain ground in terms of its use in the mining industry, is real option analysis (ROA). ROA utilizes ...

  19. Valuing of research project in energy field with real options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Blasio, N.; Marzo, G.; Turatto, R.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents an application of real options theory for valuing a research project in the field of stranded gas valorisation. After a presentation of the theory, the analysis addresses the use of real options evaluation for generating alternative pathways in order to add new value to the R D projects. It also shows how real option approach may be important for selecting among competitive projects, but also for providing a system for valorisation of decision-maker flexibility [it

  20. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Real Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Havlíček

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The first part of this paper describes the nuclear fuel cycle. It is divided into three parts. The first part, called Front-End, covers all activities connected with fuel procurement and fabrication. The middle part of the cycle includes fuel reload design activities and the operation of the fuel in the reactor. Back-End comprises all activities ensuring safe separation of spent fuel and radioactive waste from the environment. The individual stages of the fuel cycle are strongly interrelated. Overall economic optimization is very difficult. Generally, NPV is used for an economic evaluation in the nuclear fuel cycle. However the high volatility of uranium prices in the Front-End, and the large uncertainty of both economic and technical parameters in the Back-End, make the use of NPV difficult. The real option method is able to evaluate the value added by flexibility of decision making by a company under conditions of uncertainty. The possibility of applying this method to the nuclear fuel cycle evaluation is studied. 

  1. Retrospective insights from real options in R&D

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lint, L.J.O.

    2000-01-01

    Absent empirical validation of real option pricing in R&D, we discuss the evolution of three cases in R&D option valuation. The first case concerns an option on conversion of an existing production process. The other two cases concern R&D to develop new product technology in the consumer electronics

  2. INVESTMENT IN ANTIVIRAL DRUGS : A REAL OPTIONS APPROACH

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attema, Arthur E.; Lugner, Anna K.; Feenstra, Talitha L.

    2010-01-01

    Real options analysis is a promising approach to model investment under uncertainty. We employ this approach to value stockpiling of antiviral drugs as a precautionary measure against a possible influenza pandemic. Modifications of the real options approach to include risk attitude and deviations

  3. Flexibility and Project Value: Interactions and Multiple Real Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Čulík, Miroslav

    2010-06-01

    This paper is focused on a project valuation with embedded portfolio of real options including their interactions. Valuation is based on the criterion of Net Present Value on the simulation basis. Portfolio includes selected types of European-type real options: option to expand, contract, abandon and temporarily shut down and restart a project. Due to the fact, that in reality most of the managerial flexibility takes the form of portfolio of real options, selected types of options are valued not only individually, but also in combination. The paper is structured as follows: first, diffusion models for forecasting of output prices and variable costs are derived. Second, project value is estimated on the assumption, that no real options are present. Next, project value is calculated with the presence of selected European-type options; these options and their impact on project value are valued first in isolation and consequently in different combinations. Moreover, intrinsic value evolution of given real options with respect to the time of exercising is analysed. In the end, results are presented graphically; selected statistics and risk measures (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall) of the NPV's distributions are calculated and commented.

  4. The Real Options Attached to an Investment Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai-Cristian DINICĂ

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The real options capture the importance of the managerial team’s role in creating value through investment projects. The investments in real assets have a set of options that managers can exercise during the period of the project to increase the value of the assets or to limit the eventual losses. This options have their own value.The traditional methods for investment project evaluatioan, based on discounted cash flows, have some major disadvantages: they assume the irreversibility of a decision, do not take into account the interactions between decisions in several periods and treat the investment as pasive. The evaluation using real options undertake this disadvantage. The paper shows the main types of real options, together with their elements and captures the impact of these options on the value of the investment. The main two models used to evaluate real options, the binomial model and Black-Scholes model, are explained and used to compute the value of real options attached to an investment project.

  5. Capital renewal as a real option

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reindorp, M.J.; Fu, M.C.

    2011-01-01

    We consider the timing of replacement of obsolete subsystems within an extensive, complex infrastructure. Such replacement action, known as capital renewal, must balance uncertainty about future profitability against uncertainty about future renewal costs. Treating renewal investments as real

  6. Real options valuation of fusion energy R and D programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bednyagin, Denis; Gnansounou, Edgard

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims to perform a real options valuation of fusion energy R and D programme. Strategic value of thermonuclear fusion technology is estimated here based on the expected cash flows from construction and operation of fusion power plants and the real options value arising due to managerial flexibility and the underlying uncertainty. First, a basic investment option model of Black-Scholes type is being considered. Then, a fuzzy compound real R and D option model is elaborated, which reflects in a better way the multi-stage nature of the programme and takes into account the imprecision of information as one of the components of the overall programme uncertainty. Two different strategies are compared: 'Baseline' corresponding to a relatively moderate pace of fusion research, development, demonstration and deployment activities vs. 'Accelerated' strategy, which assumes a rapid demonstration and massive deployment of fusion. The conclusions are drawn from the model calculations regarding the strategic value of fusion energy R and D and the advantages of accelerated development path. - Research highlights: → Real options analysis of fusion R and D, demonstration and deployment (RDDD) programme. → ENPV of fusion RDDD programme is calculated using stochastic probabilistic simulation. → Fusion RDDD programme exhibits substantial positive real options value: Euro 245 billion. → Fuzzy compound real option valuation method provides more robust results.

  7. When Do Firms Invest in Corporate Social Responsibility? : A Real Option Framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cassimon, D.; Engelen, P.J.; Liedekerke, L.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the process for firms to decide whether or not to invest in corporate social responsibility is treated from a real option perspective. We extend the Husted (2005) framework with an important extra parameter that allows us to understand the timing of CSR investment and explain why some

  8. Corporate investment under uncertainty and competition : A real options approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pawlina, G.

    2003-01-01

    Corporate investment opportunities can be represented as a set of (real) options to acquire productive assets. Identification of the optimal exercise strategies for these options plays a crucial role in improving the quality of capital budgeting decisions and, as a consequence, in maximizing

  9. The Implications of Real Options on ERP-Enabled Adoption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nwankpa, Joseph K.

    2012-01-01

    Current research on Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems and real options focuses on valuation and justification issues that manager's face prior to project approval with existing literature attempting to demonstrate that ERP systems as technology positioning investments have option-like characteristics thus making such ERP systems…

  10. Real Options in Capital Budgeting. Pricing the Option to Delay and the Option to Abandon a Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Vintila

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Traditional discounted cash-flows method for assessing projects assumes that investment decision is an irreversible one, which is not correct. Managers can and must reconsider their initial decision as the new information arises during the project life. This is managerial flexibility and it creates strategic value for a project, only if management takes advantage of the opportunities associated with an analyzed project. Real options represent a new approach in capital budgeting, using the theory of pricing financial options for investments in real assets. In this paper, we emphasize the characteristics and valuation methodologies of real options. The objective in the last section is pricing the option to delay and the option to abandon a project in construction materials field.

  11. Real options and volume uncertainty by field development projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekern, S.; Stensland, G.

    1993-12-01

    The report concerns a study on the use of option methodology in field development projects. The report shows how the value of flexibility in the different decision processes is to be found by means of real option methodology. Particular attention is laid on the uncertainty concerning the volume of reserves and production capacity. The results from the study were based on the research project dubbed ''Use of real options in field development projects''. The project is partially connected to another project dubbed ''Decisive behaviour and alternative action under uncertainty in the petroleum sector''. Main topics cover as follow: Example with volume uncertainty; real options and volume uncertainty; gradual disclosure of uncertainty in the production; value of flexible production equipment. 33 refs., 19 figs., 17 tabs

  12. Real option valuation of power transmission investments by stochastic simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pringles, Rolando; Olsina, Fernando; Garcés, Francisco

    2015-01-01

    Network expansions in power markets usually lead to investment decisions subject to substantial irreversibility and uncertainty. Hence, investors need valuing the flexibility to change decisions as uncertainty unfolds progressively. Real option analysis is an advanced valuation technique that enables planners to take advantage of market opportunities while preventing or mitigating losses if future conditions evolve unfavorably. In the past, many approaches for valuing real options have been developed. However, applying these methods to value transmission projects is often inappropriate as revenue cash flows are path-dependent and affected by a myriad of uncertain variables. In this work, a valuation technique based on stochastic simulation and recursive dynamic programming, called Least-Square Monte Carlo, is applied to properly value the deferral option in a transmission investment. The effect of option's maturity, the initial outlay and the capital cost upon the value of the postponement option is investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis determines optimal decision regions to execute, postpone or reject the investment projects. - Highlights: • A modern investment appraisal method is applied to value power transmission projects. • The value of the option to postpone decision to invest in transmission projects is assessed. • Simulation methods are best suited for valuing real options in transmission investments

  13. Multinationality as real option facilitator – Illusion or reality?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos; Park, Jung Chul

    2016-01-01

    Previous literature provides multiple conflicting arguments on why and when multinationality should enhance or impede the value-relevance of firms’ real options. We address this issue by examining whether the relationship between stock returns and changes in return volatility varies with multinat......Previous literature provides multiple conflicting arguments on why and when multinationality should enhance or impede the value-relevance of firms’ real options. We address this issue by examining whether the relationship between stock returns and changes in return volatility varies...... with multinationality. Our results indicate that multinationality does indeed act as a real option facilitator. Furthermore, we show that, consistent with the notion that there are limits to the operating flexibility associated with multinationality this benefit only accrues fully if the firm is not financially...

  14. Investing in Marine Scrubber under Uncertainty with Real Option Thinking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiang, Liping; Hansen, Carsten Ørts

    works that examine the economic feasibility of scrubber retrofitting through the net present value rule, this paper applies the Real Option Analysis to find the optimal investment strategies. The proposed decision-making framework addresses the uncertainty and the value of deferral option embedded...... in the scrubber investment. The multiple sources of investment uncertainties are explicitly analyzed and integrated in the modeling by using Rainbow option. The results demonstrate that the value of the scrubber investment has significantly increased for several cases by considering the deferral option....... It is thus important for ship owners to consider the available options before proceeding with abandoning or investing strategy. The proposed framework can be widely applied to other ship retrofitting investment evaluations, which include similar investment alternatives and uncertainties....

  15. Applying real options analysis to assess cleaner energy development strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Ching-Tsung; Lo, Shang-Lien; Lin, Tyrone T.

    2011-01-01

    The energy industry, accounts for the largest portion of CO 2 emissions, is facing the issue of compliance with the national clean energy policy. The methodology for evaluating the energy mix policy is crucial because of the characteristics of lead time embedded with the power generation facilities investment and the uncertainty of future electricity demand. In this paper, a modified binomial model based on sequential compound options, which may account for the lead time and uncertainty as a whole is established, and a numerical example on evaluating the optional strategies and the strategic value of the cleaner energy policy is also presented. It is found that the optimal decision at some nodes in the binomial tree is path dependent, which is different from the standard sequential compound option model with lead time or time lag concept. The proposed modified binomial sequential compound real options model can be generalized and extensively applied to solve the general decision problems that deal with the long lead time of many government policies as well as capital intensive investments. - Highlights: → Introducing a flexible strategic management approach for government policy making. → Developing a modified binomial real options model based on sequential compound options. → Proposing an innovative model for managing the long term policy with lead time. → Applying to evaluate the options of various scenarios of cleaner energy strategies.

  16. How Do Real Options Concepts Fit in Agile Requirements Engineering?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Racheva, Z.; Daneva, Maia

    Agile requirements engineering is driven by creating business value for the client and heavily involves the client in decision-making under uncertainty. Real option thinking seems to be suitable in supporting the client’s decision making process at inter-iteration time. This paper investigates the

  17. Capacity choice in (strategic) real options models : A survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huberts, Nick; Huisman, Kuno; Kort, Peter; Lavrutich, Maria

    2015-01-01

    The theory of real options determines the optimal time to invest in a project of given size. As a main result, it is found that in a more uncertain environment, it is optimal for a firm to delay its investment. In other words, uncertainty generates a “value of waiting.” Recently, contributions

  18. Pricing real estate index options under stochastic interest rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Pu; Dai, Jun

    2017-08-01

    Real estate derivatives as new financial instruments are not merely risk management tools but also provide a novel way to gain exposure to real estate assets without buying or selling the physical assets. Although real estate derivatives market has exhibited a rapid development in recent years, the valuation challenge of real estate derivatives remains a great obstacle for further development in this market. In this paper, we derive a partial differential equation contingent on a real estate index in a stochastic interest rate environment and propose a modified finite difference method that adopts the non-uniform grids to solve this problem. Numerical results confirm the efficiency of the method and indicate that constant interest rate models lead to the mispricing of options and the effects of stochastic interest rates on option prices depend on whether the term structure of interest rates is rising or falling. Finally, we have investigated and compared the different effects of stochastic interest rates on European and American option prices.

  19. Real options methodology in public-private partnership projects valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakić Biljana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available PPP offers numerous benefits to both public and private partners in delivery of infrastructure projects. However this partnership also involves great risks which have to be adequately managed and mitigated. Private partners are especially sensitive to revenue risk, since they are mostly interested in the financial viability of the project. Thus they often expect public partners to provide some kind of risk-sharing mechanism in the form of Minimum Revenue Guarantees or abandonment options. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether the real option of abandoning the project increases its value. Therefore the binominal option pricing model and risk-neutral probability approach have been implemented to price the European and American abandonment options for the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT toll road investment. The obtained results suggest that the project value with the American abandonment option is greater than with the European abandonment option, hence implying that American options offer greater flexibility and are more valuable for private partners. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179066 and III 42006

  20. Development of real options model for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kenji

    2004-01-01

    As the Japanese electricity market is deregulated, it becomes more important for electric utilities to recognize their financial risks and to adopt strategic and scientific decision making methodology. We have developed two models for valuation of Japanese nuclear power plants to support utilities' decision making. One is a net present value (NPV) model using discounted cash flow analysis method. Another is a real options model. This model is based on strict financial technology theory and can calculate value of early retirement, life extension and new unit addition options of nuclear units under electricity price uncertainty. This can also derive an optimal period for retirement, life extension and new unit addition. (author)

  1. Costing the EPR Project Using the Real Options Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epaulard, Anne; Gallon, Stephane

    2001-01-01

    Real options theory makes it possible to cost investments which offer flexibility but whose returns are uncertain, such as the construction in 2000 of an EPR prototype; this prototype will enable the European pressurised-water reactor (EPR) to be used to renew EDF's nuclear power stations in 2020 (flexibility) but its economic worth will then depend on the cost of the competing gas-fired power plants (uncertain return). Options theory shows that investing in EPR technology in 2000 provides sufficient flexibility in 2020 to be considered cost-effective, even though use of EPRs is unlikely by that date. The investment made in 2000 to develop EPR technology therefore actually plays the part of an option or, in other words, insurance (against the risk of high gas prices)

  2. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  3. What is the (Real Option) Value of a College Degree?

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey R. Stokes

    2013-01-01

    The value of a college degree is often quantified as the difference in earnings between those with and without a degree. The research presented here operationalizes this idea in two important ways. First, since future income and tuition are uncertain, a contingent claims model is developed and the appropriate discount rate for valuing future earnings is, therefore, endogenized given an economy that does not permit arbitrage. Second, the model is sensitive to the valuation of the real option t...

  4. Real Option Cost Vulnerability Analysis of Electrical Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prime, Thomas; Knight, Phil

    2015-04-01

    Critical infrastructure such as electricity substations are vulnerable to various geo-hazards that arise from climate change. These geo-hazards range from increased vegetation growth to increased temperatures and flood inundation. Of all the identified geo-hazards, coastal flooding has the greatest impact, but to date has had a low probability of occurring. However, in the face of climate change, coastal flooding is likely to occur more often due to extreme water levels being experienced more frequently due to sea-level rise (SLR). Knowing what impact coastal flooding will have now and in the future on critical infrastructure such as electrical substations is important for long-term management. Using a flood inundation model, present day and future flood events have been simulated, from 1 in 1 year events up to 1 in 10,000 year events. The modelling makes an integrated assessment of impact by using sea-level and surge to simulate a storm tide. The geographical area the model covers is part of the Northwest UK coastline with a range of urban and rural areas. The ensemble of flood maps generated allows the identification of critical infrastructure exposed to coastal flooding. Vulnerability has be assessed using an Estimated Annual Damage (EAD) value. Sampling SLR annual probability distributions produces a projected "pathway" for SLR up to 2100. EAD is then calculated using a relationship derived from the flood model. Repeating the sampling process allows a distribution of EAD up to 2100 to be produced. These values are discounted to present day values using an appropriate discount rate. If the cost of building and maintain defences is also removed from this a Net Present Value (NPV) of building the defences can be calculated. This distribution of NPV can be used as part of a cost modelling process involving Real Options, A real option is the right but not obligation to undertake investment decisions. In terms of investment in critical infrastructure resilience this

  5. Applying Real Options for Evaluating Investments in ERP Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagane, Jun; Sekozawa, Teruji

    This paper intends to verify effectiveness of real options approach for evaluating investments in Enterprise Resource Planning systems (ERP) and proves how important it is to disclose shadow options potentially embedded in ERP investment. The net present value (NPV) method is principally adopted to evaluate the value of ERP. However, the NPV method assumes no uncertainties exist in the object. It doesn't satisfy the current business circumstances which are filled with dynamic issues. Since the 1990s the effectiveness of option pricing models for Information System (IS) investment to solve issues in the NPV method has been discussed in the IS literature. This paper presents 3 business cases to review the practical advantages of such techniques for IS investments, especially ERP investments. The first case is EDI development. We evaluate the project by a new approach with lighting one of shadow options, EDI implementation. In the second case we reveal an ERP investment has an “expanding option” in a case of eliminating redundancy. The third case describes an option to contract which is deliberately slotted in ERP development to prepare transferring a manufacturing facility.

  6. A Real Options Approach to Nuclear Waste Disposal in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soederkvist, Jonas; Joensson, Kristian

    2004-04-01

    This report is concerned with an investigation of how the real options approach can be useful for managerial decisions regarding the phase-out of nuclear power generation in Sweden. The problem of interest is the optimal time-schedule for phase-out activities, where the optimal time-schedule is defined in purely economical terms. The approach taken is actual construction and application of three real options models, which capture different aspects of managerial decisions. The first model concerns when investments in deep disposal facilities should optimally be made. Although the model is a rough simplification of reality, the result is clear. It is economically advantageous to postpone deep disposal forever. The second model focuses on how the uncertainty of future costs relates to managerial investment decisions. Construction of this model required some creativity, as the nuclear phase-out turns out to be quite a special project. The result from the second model is that there can be a value associated with deferral of investments due to the uncertainty of future costs, but the result is less clear-cut compared to the first model. In the third model, we extend an approach suggested by Louberge, Villeneuve and Chesney. The risk of a nuclear accident is introduced through this model and we develop its application to investigate the Swedish phase-out in particular, which implies that waste continuously disposed. In the third model, focus is shifted from investment timing to implementation timing. The results from the third model are merely qualitative, as it is considered beyond the scope of this work to quantitatively determine all relevant inputs. It is concluded that the phase-out of nuclear power generation in Sweden is not just another area of application for standard real options techniques. A main reason is that although there are a lot of uncertain issues regarding the phase-out, those uncertainties do not leave a lot of room for managerial flexibility if

  7. Evaluation of Foreign Investment in Power Plants using Real Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

    This paper proposes new methods for evaluating foreign investment in power plants under market uncertainty using a real options approach. We suppose a thermal power plant project in a deregulated electricity market. One of our proposed methods is that we calculate the cash flow generated by the project in a reference year using actual market data to incorporate periodic characteristics of energy prices into a yearly cash flow model. We make the stochastic yearly cash flow model with the initial value which is the cash flow in the reference year, and certain trend and volatility. Then we calculate the real options value (ROV) of the project which has abandonment options using the yearly cash flow model. Another our proposed method is that we evaluate foreign currency/domestic currency exchange rate risk by representing ROV in foreign currency as yearly pay off and exchanging it to ROV in domestic currency using a stochastic exchange rate model. We analyze the effect of the heat rate and operation and maintenance costs of the power plant on ROV, and evaluate exchange rate risk through numerical examples. Our proposed method will be useful for the risk management of foreign investment in power plants.

  8. Real Silver and Its Investment and Business Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novotný Josef

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with investment and business opportunities offered by silver. Silver is the metal used in industry and for investing at financial markets. The main problem related to this real commodity is the issue of “the undervaluation” of its investment options, if compared to gold. If considering silver as the investment option, its investment potential is significantly enhanced by its industrial usage. The aim of this paper is to highlight business and investment opportunities for both professionals and non professional investors at the commodity markets. The price growth of this investment and industrial metal can generate profits for the investors. And on the other hand, industries which cannot do without silver in their production may efficiently utilize the knowledge of setting up its price at the markets.

  9. Applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Tyrone T. [Department of International Business, National Dong Hwa University, 1, Sec. 2, Da Hsueh Road, Shou-Feng, Hualien 974, Taiwan (China)]. E-mail: tjlin@mail.ndhu.edu.tw; Ko, C.-C. [Department of International Trade, Jin Wen Institute of Technology, Taiwan (China); Yeh, H.-N. [Graduate School of Management, Ming Chuan University, Taiwan (China)

    2007-04-15

    This study focuses on how to assess the optimal environmental investment decisions under economic and ecological uncertainty, and establishes the continuous time model using the real option approach to optimize environmental pollution policy. Unlike traditional cost benefit analysis, this work extends the model of [Pindyck, R.S., 2002. Optimal timing problems in environmental economics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26(9-10), 1677-1697], and attempts to identify the storage threshold of pollution stocks and the optimal timing for implementing environmental pollution decisions.

  10. A Real Options Analysis of Coffee Planting in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Luong, Quoc; Tauer, Loren W.

    2004-01-01

    Vietnam grew from an insignificant to the world’s second largest coffee producer during the 1990s. To understand this growth, this paper examines Vietnamese coffee growers’ investment decisions using real options theory. The study finds that producers, with variable costs of 19 cents/lb and total cost of 29.3 cents/lb, would enter coffee production at a coffee price of 47 cents/lb and exit at a coffee price of 14 cents/lb. Most Vietnamese growers appear to be sufficiently efficient to continu...

  11. Applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Tyrone T.; Ko, C.-C.; Yeh, H.-N.

    2007-01-01

    This study focuses on how to assess the optimal environmental investment decisions under economic and ecological uncertainty, and establishes the continuous time model using the real option approach to optimize environmental pollution policy. Unlike traditional cost benefit analysis, this work extends the model of [Pindyck, R.S., 2002. Optimal timing problems in environmental economics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26(9-10), 1677-1697], and attempts to identify the storage threshold of pollution stocks and the optimal timing for implementing environmental pollution decisions

  12. The perspectives of nuclear option for Croatia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feretic, D.

    2004-01-01

    In order to satisfy the expected level of electricity consumption in Croatia it will be necessary, as a minimum, until the year 2020 to install about 2000 MW in new power plants. Gas and coal fired plants presently are main competitors to nuclear power plants. In near future it my be different due to expected problems with gas availability and cost increase and also in adverse environmental impact (particularly due to CO 2 emissions) of coal fired plants. Nuclear power plants have advantage not only in economics of produced energy but also in impact to the environment. Preservation of knowledge obtained during construction of NPP Krsko is also an important reason to maintain nuclear option. Pre construction and construction period for new plants (particularly for coal fired and nuclear plants) could be long so that timely start of preparatory activities is indispensable to meet the required schedule.(author)

  13. An environmental perspective on Lithuania's energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, A.; Todd, J.

    1995-01-01

    The views of experts on Lithuania's energy options are reviewed. On the one hand, nuclear energy is seen as an island of stability in the power industry in the conditions of economic crisis, and some decision-makers believe that Lithuania cannot survive without nuclear. On the other hand, the Ignalina NPP is the largest Chernobyl-type RBMK plant within the former Soviet Union, posing a dangerous environmental hazard to the Baltic Sea region, and no upgrading seems to be capable of bringing the reactors up to the safety standards of today's Western reactors. Many experts believe that the only solution is to shut the reactors down as soon as possible. (P.A.) 33 refs

  14. MODERN OPTIONS FOR THE FINANCING OF THE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiriac Silviu-Cornel-Virgil

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The investments represent one of the most important elements in the national economy development strategies, as well as in all the business fields and branches. The notion of investment is extremely complex, perceived with different meanings and significates. In a general, wider meaning the investments represent a capital placement which is made with the purpose of obtaining profit bearing incomes in the future. In a narrower meaning, investments mean the totality of expenses made for obtaining capital assets which are future potential factors in the formation of incomes. Investments represent the most important factor in the development strategies of the national economy as well as in all the business fields and branches. The investment strategy represents an important element in the management of the investments and a component of the general strategy of the entity. The use of investment strategies in the management activity implies the application of scientific techniques and methods. The great number of studies carried out shows that there were no certain answers formed, very often the option for a form of financing or the other is influenced only by the “level of accessibility” of the resources available on the financial market and the financing policy of many companies is guided rather by the constraints of the financial market than a coherent company strategy In order to ensure a constant economic growth it is necessary to prepare investment projects. In practice the predominant one is the investment activity based on real investments performed for the modernising of assets, in order to ensure their physical and moral wear and tear. The analysis of real estate investments can be made using a various range of indicators, from the traditional ones to those based on the updated cash flow, using traditional analysis techniques or complex techniques used by specialists with training in the analysis of real estate investment. The

  15. Sequencing Infrastructure Investments under Deep Uncertainty Using Real Options Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishtha Manocha

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The adaptation tipping point and adaptation pathway approach developed to make decisions under deep uncertainty do not shed light on which among the multiple available pathways should be chosen as the preferred pathway. This creates the need to extend these approaches by means of suitable tools that can help sequence actions and subsequently enable the outlining of relevant policies. This paper presents two sequencing approaches, namely, the “Build to Target” and “Build Up” approach, to aid in sub-selecting a set of preferred pathways. Both approaches differ in the levels of flexibility they offer. They are exemplified by means of two case studies wherein the Net Present Valuation and the Real Options Analysis are employed as selection criterions. The results demonstrate the benefit of these two approaches when used in conjunction with the adaptation pathways and show how the pathways selected by means of a Build to Target approach generally have a value greater than, or at least the same as, the pathways selected by the Build Up approach. Further, this paper also demonstrates the capacity of Real Options to quantify and capture the economic value of flexibility, which cannot be done by traditional valuation approaches such as Net Present Valuation.

  16. Application of Real Options Valuation to R&D Investments in Pharmaceutical Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Huan Ran

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides an insight into the application of real option valuation method to R&D projects in pharmaceutical companies. As one of the most important corporate finance decision-making methods, real option valuation method has been introduced in the last two decades. By applying option valuation methods, real option valuation is a useful tool to company managers. R&D investments in pharmaceutical companies are subject to considerable uncertainty, which may involve possibilities (i...

  17. Real options and asset valuation in competitive energy markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oduntan, Adekunle Richard

    The focus of this work is to develop a robust valuation framework for physical power assets operating in competitive markets such as peaking or mid-merit thermal power plants and baseload power plants. The goal is to develop a modeling framework that can be adapted to different energy assets with different types of operating flexibilities and technical constraints and which can be employed for various purposes such as capital budgeting, business planning, risk management and strategic bidding planning among others. The valuation framework must also be able to capture the reality of power market rules and opportunities, as well as technical constraints of different assets. The modeling framework developed conceptualizes operating flexibilities of power assets as "switching options' whereby the asset operator decides at every decision point whether to switch from one operating mode to another mutually exclusive mode, within the limits of the equipment constraints of the asset. As a current decision to switch operating modes may affect future operating flexibilities of the asset and hence cash flows, a dynamic optimization framework is employed. The developed framework accounts for the uncertain nature of key value drivers by representing them with appropriate stochastic processes. Specifically, the framework developed conceptualizes the operation of a power asset as a multi-stage decision making problem where the operator has to make a decision at every stage to alter operating mode given currently available information about key value drivers. The problem is then solved dynamically by decomposing it into a series of two-stage sub-problems according to Bellman's optimality principle. The solution algorithm employed is the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. The developed valuation framework was adapted for a gas-fired thermal power plant, a peaking hydroelectric power plant and a baseload power plant. This work built on previously published real options valuation

  18. Real options valuation and optimization of energy assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Matthew

    In this thesis we present algorithms for the valuation and optimal operation of natural gas storage facilities, hydro-electric power plants and thermal power generators in competitive markets. Real options theory is used to derive nonlinear partial-integro-differential equations (PIDEs) for the valuation and optimal operating strategies of all types of facilities. The equations are designed to incorporate a wide class of spot price models that can exhibit the same time-dependent, mean-reverting dynamics and price spikes as those observed in most energy markets. Particular attention is paid to the operational characteristics of real energy assets. For natural gas storage facilities these characteristics include: working gas capacities, variable deliverability and injection rates and cycling limitations. For thermal power plants relevant operational characteristics include variable start-up times and costs, control response time lags, minimum generating levels, nonlinear output functions, structural limitations on ramp rates, and minimum up/down time restrictions. For hydro-electric units, head effects and environmental constraints are addressed. We illustrate the models with numerical examples of a gas storage facility, a hydro-electric pump storage facility and a thermal power plant. This PIDE framework is the first in the literature to achieve second order accuracy in characterizing the operating states of hydro-electric and hydro-thermal power plants. The continuous state space representation derived in this thesis can therefore achieve far greater realism in terms of operating state specification than any other method in the literature to date. This thesis is also the first and only to allow for any continuous time jump diffusion processes in order to account for price spikes.

  19. Economic Evaluation for Energy Business Using Real Options Pricing Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, W.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2001-11-01

    Recently, facing the new era of restructuring, privatization, and liberalization the energy industry in the world is changing rapidly, and thus the uncertain factors tend to increase. This would imply that energy-related business is now confronted with new market risks as well as the simple price risks. The traditional investment valuation method using the concept of net present value (NPV) or internal rate of revenue (IRR) might not incorporate the managerial alternatives which enable managers to respond flexibly to the changes in business environment. This study pointed out the problems of the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method when evaluating a certain capital investment in energy industry. As an alternative, the real option pricing method (ROPM) was proposed, which is widely adopted in the field of profit projection for the venture business. In addition, when applying to energy sector the feasibility of ROPM was discussed, and the frameworks and major results of previous related studies were described. For those using the ROPM in real business, I explained the detailed procedures and solutions of ROPM, and introduced the log-transformed binomial model which provides a more efficient solution. In order to verify the usefulness of the ROPM, this study performed an empirical analysis for a virtual construction and operation project of power plant. And, the results from the ROPM was compared to those from the traditional DCF method. Based on the empirical results, the values of various investment opportunities were shown to be high. Therefore, the project not justified in terms of traditional DCF would turn into the project with a positive gross project value, properly reflecting managerial flexibilities inherent in the original project. (author). 58 refs., 32 figs., 33 tabs.

  20. Corporate social responsibility: a real options approach to the challenge of financial sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosch-Badia, Maria-Teresa; Montllor-Serrats, Joan; Tarrazon-Rodon, Maria-Antonia

    2015-01-01

    In contemporary complex societies, social values like ethics, corporate social responsibility, and being respectful with the environment, among others, are becoming social requirements. Corporations are expected to fulfill them and, according to empirical evidence, an overwhelming majority aspires to good social valuation. At the same time, the maximization of market share value in the long run continues to be the central corporate goal. Making environmental and social expenses compatible with value creation is a central challenge for corporations since it implies the financial sustainability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). The value creation capacity of CSR projects, mainly through innovation, is widely acknowledged in economic literature and corporate practice. This fact arouses the need of having a quantitative framework capable of summarizing the value creation capacity of the variables involved in CSR projects. With this aim we build up a sensitivity analysis of real option ratios that studies and quantifies the value creation capacity of CSR projects connected with innovation. Ratio analysis has the advantage of being scale independent. Hence, it furnishes a homogeneous framework to express the interaction of value creation variables and, thus, supports strategic thinking quantitatively. Often, CSR expenses can be regarded as preliminary projects that create the opportunity to undertake a full future project. For them, we obtain the minimum expectations scenario that makes financially sustainable a preliminary project that can be interpreted as a call option. We propose a classification of CSR projects from the decision analysis perspective following a two-fold approach: Their relationship with value creation and their links with existing corporate activities. This classification of CSR projects aims at contributing to choose the best capital budgeting method to study the financial sustainability of the project and identifying those CSR projects

  1. Corporate social responsibility: a real options approach to the challenge of financial sustainability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria-Teresa Bosch-Badia

    Full Text Available In contemporary complex societies, social values like ethics, corporate social responsibility, and being respectful with the environment, among others, are becoming social requirements. Corporations are expected to fulfill them and, according to empirical evidence, an overwhelming majority aspires to good social valuation. At the same time, the maximization of market share value in the long run continues to be the central corporate goal. Making environmental and social expenses compatible with value creation is a central challenge for corporations since it implies the financial sustainability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR.The value creation capacity of CSR projects, mainly through innovation, is widely acknowledged in economic literature and corporate practice. This fact arouses the need of having a quantitative framework capable of summarizing the value creation capacity of the variables involved in CSR projects. With this aim we build up a sensitivity analysis of real option ratios that studies and quantifies the value creation capacity of CSR projects connected with innovation. Ratio analysis has the advantage of being scale independent. Hence, it furnishes a homogeneous framework to express the interaction of value creation variables and, thus, supports strategic thinking quantitatively. Often, CSR expenses can be regarded as preliminary projects that create the opportunity to undertake a full future project. For them, we obtain the minimum expectations scenario that makes financially sustainable a preliminary project that can be interpreted as a call option. We propose a classification of CSR projects from the decision analysis perspective following a two-fold approach: Their relationship with value creation and their links with existing corporate activities. This classification of CSR projects aims at contributing to choose the best capital budgeting method to study the financial sustainability of the project and identifying

  2. Biomass Power Generation Investment in China: A Real Options Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingming Zhang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a real options model for evaluating the biomass power generation investment in China. The uncertainties in the market price of electricity, CO2 price and straw price are considered. Meanwhile the dynamic relationship between installed capacity and fuel cost, as well as the long-term reduction of subsidy are described. Two scenarios, i.e., with the carbon emission trading scheme existent and non-existent, respectively, is built to empirically analyze the investment of a 25-MW straw-based power generation project. The results show that investors should undertake the investment in 2030 under two scenarios. Investment values are 14,869,254.8 and 37,608,727 Chinese Yuan (RMB, respectively. The implementation of the carbon emission trading scheme theoretically helps improve investment value and advance the most likely optimal investment time. However, the current CO2 price is not sufficient to advance the most likely optimal investment time. The impacts of several factors, including subsidy policy, CO2 price, straw price, installed capacity, correlation structure and the validity period of investment, on the optimal investment strategy are also examined. It is suggested that governments take some measures, including increasing subsidy, setting the growth pattern of subsidy and establishing and perfecting a nationwide carbon trading market, to improve the investment environment and attract more investments.

  3. Applications of Real Options in the Real Estate Market Focusing the City of Rio de Janeiro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscilla Yung Medeiros

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available An investment opportunity in the real state market can be compared with an option and, because of this analogy, we can make use of the real options theory to determinate not only the best timing to begin a new property development, but also to determine the optimal density to develop in a specific property. To investigate these two main decisions, we are going to base our research on the model developed by Williams (1991 and extend it in a way to include taxes and a discount in the net cash inflow caused by the times spent in the construction process. An empirical analysis of the of the residential real estate market in the city of Rio de Janeiro is going to be developed in a way to verify the compatibility of the theoretical model developed here according to the reality of this market. We found that the extensions proposed to the basic model of Williams (1991 had significant effects in the theoretical model. We could also confirm empirically that the theoretical results are compatible to the reality of this market.

  4. The research for flexible product family manufacturing based on real options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maozhu Jin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The goal of this paper is to find the best production strategy for product mix, which means the largest value of the options. And finally, give a case and find the solution of the optimal production strategy for product mix. Design/methodology/approach: This article, based on the production with characteristics of a call option and 0-1 integer programming model, build new-products mix strategy, and through case demonstrate that traditional method underestimates the value of the products mix. Finding: According to market being volatility and uncertainty and the production can being delayed, firms can flexibly arrange the best time for products to manufacture. Use real options theory to analyze product decision and the best production timing decision. Find the total options value is higher than the traditional methods. Research limitations/implications: We are not applied to real option pricing theory in modular flexible production system. We just applied real option pricing theory to the product platform. The basic model needs to improve. While the thinking of this paper provides some research ideas for flexible production systems based on real option in further research. Practical Implications: The introduction of the real option make the company can achieve dynamic planning and flexible management for production of products mix and get the better benefit. Originality/value: The central contribution of this paper is to introduce the option mechanism in the production timing for the product mix.

  5. A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Lei; Fan, Ying

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → This paper establishes a carbon captures and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model. → The model is based on real options theory and solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. → China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment. → The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. -- Abstract: This paper establishes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model based on real options theory considering uncertainties from the existing thermal power generating cost, carbon price, thermal power with CCS generating cost, and investment in CCS technology deployment. The model aims to evaluate the value of the cost saving effect and amount of CO 2 emission reduction through investing in newly-built thermal power with CCS technology to replace existing thermal power in a given period from the perspective of power generation enterprises. The model is solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. Since the model could be used as a policy analysis tool, China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment through scenario analysis. The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. Thus, there is an important trade off for policy makers between reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the interests of power generation enterprises. The research presented would be useful for CCS technology evaluation and related policy-making.

  6. The use of fuzzy real option valuation method to rank Giga ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The use of fuzzy real option valuation method to rank Giga Investment Projects on Iran's natural gas reserves. ... Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... methodology – discounted cash flow analysis – in valuation of Giga investments.

  7. REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS – ASSESSMENT METHOD OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN GREEN ENERGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MAFTEI DANIEL

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the importance of real options as a evaluation method of investment in green energy. Article consider several theoretical and practical approaches, the analysis based on real options by many authors who have theorized and used this method. Each approach provides a operationalisation through a steps series of specific evaluation. This paper highlights the different views: academics, financiers, managers and facilitates the access to an accurate evaluation decisions of projects.

  8. Real Option--A New Approach in the Evaluation of Telecom Investment Projects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Hong

    2005-01-01

    This paper gives a new method into the evaluating system of telecom investment projects, I.e. Real Option. This may overcome the defects resulted from employing Net Present Value (NPV), which is now used in the evaluation of telecom projects. A theoretical analysis of Real Option is provided, followed by an example of telecom investment project to illustrate the differences between the two methods.

  9. Influence of Transaction costs and real options on firms' own-or-rent ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on secondary data on 79 companies in Mekelle, Ethiopia, this paper investigates the influence of transaction cost and real option factors on firms' own or rent decision for building resources. Empirical results suggest that both transaction cost and option factors have significant influence on firms' own or rent decision.

  10. Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis M. Abadie

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC, and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

  11. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposures: A Search for the Effect of Real Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    Real options like the ability to reallocate production resources can lead to an asymmetric exchange rate exposure. Using a stock market approach in which the exchange rate exposure is derived from the information content in the stock prices this study examines the extra-market exchange rate...... exposures of a group of blue chip, industrial companies listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. In these companies the existence of real options is an integrated part of the exchange rate exposure management process. The result of the stock market approach is mixed. Statistically significant asymmetric...... exchange rate exposures are identified successfully but the asymmetries can only to a limited extent be explained by the existence of real options. Financial options and pricing to market are competing explanations. Omitted variable bias further blurs the picture. These problems and the concept of path...

  12. STRATEGIC EXERCISE OF REAL OPTIONS:INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kevin ZHU; John WEYANT

    2003-01-01

    Viewing investment projects in new technologies as real options, this paper studies the effects of endogenous competition and asymmetric information on the strategic exercise of real options. We first develop a multi-period, game-theoretic model and show how competition leads to early exercise and aggressive investment behaviors and how competition erodes option values. We then relax the typical full-information assumption found in the literature and allow information asymmetry to exist across firms. Our model shows, in contrast to the literature that payoff is independent of the ordering of exercise, that the sequential exercise of real options may generate both informational and payoff externalities. We also find some surprising but interesting results such as having more information is not necessarily better.

  13. Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management for Finance: Application of Real Options Method for Disaster Risk Sensitive Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KUSDHIANTO SETIAWAN

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the application of real options analysis for a project that is in the process of construction and was affected by a natural disaster. The use of the analytical method has become a way of thinking in making decisions that should be taught to business school students. The case in this paper is based on an MBA thesis at the University of Gadjah Mada that was intended as a showcase for application of real options to address real business problems. It shows one of the strategies in mainstreaming disaster risk management in the business school that also answers the needs of businesses in the disaster-prone country.

  14. Growing short rotation coppice on agricultural land in Germany: A Real Options Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musshoff, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    In many cases decision-makers apparently do not adapt as fast as expected to changing economic conditions. This is also the case for the conversion of farm land to short rotation coppice. From an economic point of view, short rotation coppice has become more interesting in the last few years. Nevertheless, farm land still is rarely used to grow this quite unknown crop. Several explanatory approaches (e.g., traditionalistic behavior and risk aversion) are currently discussed in order to explain this behavior. A relatively new explanatory approach is the Real Options Approach. The Real Options Approach uses a comprehensive dynamic-stochastic model that combines the uncertainty of investment returns, the sunk costs, and the temporal flexibility of the investment implementation. The quintessence of the Real Options Approach is that—compared to the Classical Investment Theory—the investment triggers will be shifted upwards if investments involve intertemporal opportunity costs. This paper develops a real options model which allows the determination of triggers on the basis of realistic assumptions. We examined when farmers, who only dispose of sandy soils with little water-storing capacity, should convert set-aside land to short rotation coppice. The results show that farmers should not convert until the present value of the investment returns exceeds the investment costs considerably. Thus, they confirm the empirically observed reluctance in conversion. Furthermore, it turned out that the magnitude of the difference between the Classical Investment Theory and the Real Options Approach depends heavily on the type of stochastic process that underlies the investment returns. -- Highlights: ► Frequently observed reluctance of farmers to convert to short rotation coppice. ► Risk neutral farmers should convert if the investment multiple exceeds 1.57. ► The Real Options Approach is an explanatory approach for this observation. ► Results depend very much on the

  15. An Economic Evaluation on Replacement Plan for Aged Thermal Power Plants through a Real Option Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

    This paper presents a novel method to evaluate replacement plan for aged thermal power plants under uncertain circumstances through a real option approach. The most economical plan is selected among the three options: an option to operate an existing oil-fired thermal plant, an option to mothball it, and an option to abandon it and to construct an advanced gas combined cycle power plant (ACC) at the same time. Basic ideas of our model are: we use quadranomial approach in order to evaluate an option value consisted by two different uncertain assets; we consider cash flow with a dividend in order to reflect conditions of an aged oil-fired thermal plant and use the sequential compound option approach; we evaluate replacement time using quadranomial decision tree taking into account the options. We also analyze value and time of replacement using numerical examples. Our proposed method will be practically used for generation planning. For example it is possible to make priority quantitatively in replacements of aged thermal power plants by real option values. The target year of replacement may be set as a year when cumulative probability of replacement becomes over certain level.

  16. Identification of the real options in a program of nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camacho G, D.; Diaz N, M. J.; Reinking C, A.

    2008-01-01

    The development of our societies and our economies this intimately related to electric power and this as well with the generating sources, due to the projection of world-wide growth should go associate with a strategy of growth of energy generation. Considering to the nuclear power as an option to satisfy the energy needs that a country can provide two main immediate benefits: The stabilization of prices of security of provision of electric power of the nation. The care of the environment, since the gas discharges greenhouse are almost null. At the moment nuclear energy represents economically a viable option for the capital investment, taking into account the development from technology, the policies implemented by the state and the prices of other fuels. Due to the great investment that its require for the nuclear plants are necessary to use financial tools that allow to analyze the future scenes in which ours investment can be seen affected and to value the flexibility of being able to enlarge, to postpone or to stop our project in order to have majors profits or to diminish the lost ones. This valuation of the flexibility can be obtained from the called method Real Options. By analysis of Real Options the process is understood to apply to the methodology of the Financial Options to the valuation of projects or the management of real assets. The Real Options appear in flexible plans, projects, activities or enterprise investments, like for example, to leave or to sell the investment project before concluding it, changing to their use or its technology, to prolong their life, the option to choose, one or the other capacity, among others possibilities. In this work is an example of the application of the method of Real Options in the decision to invest or to defer the investment for the construction of a nuclear plant following the behavior of the tariffs in the market or the costs of generation of other technologies with which a nuclear plant competes. (Author)

  17. Factorials of real negative and imaginary numbers - A new perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thukral, Ashwani K

    2014-01-01

    Presently, factorials of real negative numbers and imaginary numbers, except for zero and negative integers are interpolated using the Euler's gamma function. In the present paper, the concept of factorials has been generalised as applicable to real and imaginary numbers, and multifactorials. New functions based on Euler's factorial function have been proposed for the factorials of real negative and imaginary numbers. As per the present concept, the factorials of real negative numbers, are complex numbers. The factorials of real negative integers have their imaginary part equal to zero, thus are real numbers. Similarly, the factorials of imaginary numbers are complex numbers. The moduli of the complex factorials of real negative numbers, and imaginary numbers are equal to their respective real positive number factorials. Fractional factorials and multifactorials have been defined in a new perspective. The proposed concept has also been extended to Euler's gamma function for real negative numbers and imaginary numbers, and beta function.

  18. Real options analysis for land use management: Methods, application, and implications for policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Courtney M; Bryan, Brett A; Connor, Jeffery D; Meyer, Wayne S; Ostendorf, Bertram; Zhu, Zili; Bao, Chenming

    2015-09-15

    Discounted cash flow analysis, including net present value is an established way to value land use and management investments which accounts for the time-value of money. However, it provides a static view and assumes passive commitment to an investment strategy when real world land use and management investment decisions are characterised by uncertainty, irreversibility, change, and adaptation. Real options analysis has been proposed as a better valuation method under uncertainty and where the opportunity exists to delay investment decisions, pending more information. We briefly review the use of discounted cash flow methods in land use and management and discuss their benefits and limitations. We then provide an overview of real options analysis, describe the main analytical methods, and summarize its application to land use investment decisions. Real options analysis is largely underutilized in evaluating land use decisions, despite uncertainty in policy and economic drivers, the irreversibility and sunk costs involved. New simulation methods offer the potential for overcoming current technical challenges to implementation as demonstrated with a real options simulation model used to evaluate an agricultural land use decision in South Australia. We conclude that considering option values in future policy design will provide a more realistic assessment of landholder investment decision making and provide insights for improved policy performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The Optimal Timing of Strategic Action – A Real Options Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordon G. Sollars

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available he possibility of a first-mover advantage arises in a variety of strategic choices, including product introductions, business start-ups, and mergers and acquisitions. The strategic management literature reflects ambiguity regarding the likelihood that a first mover can or will capture additional value. This paper uses a real options approach to address the optimal timing of strategic moves. Previous studies have modeled real options using either a perpetual or a European financial option. With these models, a strategic choice could only be made either without respect to a time frame (perpetual or at a fixed point in time (European option. Neither case is realistic. Companies typically have strategic options with only a limited time frame due to market factors, but companies may choose to act at any time within that constraint. To reflect this reality, we adapt a method for valuing an American financial option on a dividend paying stock to the real options context. The method presented in this paper proposes a solution for the optimum value for a project that should trigger a strategic choice, and highlights the value lost by not acting optimally. We use simulation results to show that the time frame available to make a strategic choice has an important effect on both the project value for when action should be taken, as well as on the value of waiting to invest at the optimal time. The results presented in this paper help to clarify the ambiguity that is found in the strategic management literature regarding the possibility of obtaining a first-mover advantage. Indeed, a first mover that acts sub-optimally could incur losses or at least not gain any advantage. A first mover that waits to invest at the right time based on the superior information supplied by models based on real options could be better positioned to obtain the benefits that might come from the first move.

  20. Valuation of exploration and production assets. An overview of real options models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dias, Marco Antonio Guimaraes

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a set of selected real options models to evaluate investments in petroleum exploration and production (E and P) under market and technical uncertainties. First are presented some simple examples to develop the intuition about concepts like option value and optimal option exercise, comparing them with the concepts from the traditional net present value (NPV) criteria. Next, the classical model of Paddock, Siegel and Smith is presented, including a discussion on the practical values for the input parameters. The modeling of oil price uncertainty is presented by comparing some alternative stochastic processes. Other E and P applications discussed here are the selection of mutually exclusive alternatives under uncertainty, the wildcat drilling decision, the appraisal investment decisions, and the analysis of option to expand the production through optional wells

  1. Real Estate Economics, Management and Investments: New Perspectives and Frontiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincenzo Del Giudice

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available New perspectives and frontiers were highlighted in a Special Issue on “Real Estate Economics, Finance and Investments”. The twenty-eight papers that were selected and published emanated from scholars from universities all over the world with the aim to represent more recent advances in building management, mass appraisal methods, real estate risk management, economic evaluation of real estate investment projects, real estate market, property, social housing, real estate economics, real estate finance, building transformation and economic effects on environment. These papers helped to determine a unique and valuable opportunity to experiment with multiple approaches to these ever more crucial topics. This note proposes a brief review of the twenty-eight papers, concluding with some reflections about policy, practice and research on real estate issues.

  2. A real-life example of choosing an inherently safer process option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Study, Karen

    2007-01-01

    While choosing an inherently safer alternative may seem straightforward, sometimes what seems to be the most obvious alternative may not provide the best risk reduction. The process designer must maintain a broad perspective to be able to recognize all potential hazards when evaluating design options. All aspects of operation such as start-up, shut-down, utility failure, as well as normal operation should be considered. Choosing the inherently safer option is best accomplished early in the option selection phase of a project; however, recycle back to the option selection phase may be needed if an option is not thoroughly evaluated early in the process. In this paper, a project to supply ammonia to a catalytic reactor will be reviewed. During the course of the project, an 'inherently safer' alternative was selected and later discarded due to issues uncovered during the detail design phase. The final option chosen will be compared to (1) the original design and (2) the initial 'inherently safer' alternative. The final option was inherently safer than both the original design and the initial 'inherently safer' alternative even though the design team initially believed that it would not be

  3. Real options approach to inter-sectoral migration of U.S.farm labor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulcan Onel; Barry K. Goodwin

    2014-01-01

    The core of the literature on inter-sectoral labor migration is based on net present value models of investment in which individuals are assumed to migrate to take advantage of positive wage differentials. In this article, we argue that a real options approach, taken together with the adjustment costs associated with sectoral relocation, may provide a basis for...

  4. The Application of the Real Options Method for the Evaluation of High-Rise Construction Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izotov, Aleksandr; Rostova, Olga; Dubgorn, Alissa

    2018-03-01

    The paper is devoted to the problem of evaluation of high-rise construction projects in a rapidly changing environment. The authors proposed an algorithm for constructing and embedding real options in high-rise construction projects, which makes it possible to increase the flexibility of managing multi-stage projects that have the ability to adapt to changing conditions of implementation.

  5. Understanding the advantages of open innovation practices in corporate venturing in terms of real options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanhaverbeke, W.P.M.; Vrande, van de V.J.A.; Chesbrough, H.

    2008-01-01

    Part of the advantages of using open innovation (compared to closed innovation) in corporate venturing can be explained by applying the real options approach. Open innovation in risk-laden activities such as corporate venturing has the following advantages: (i) benefits from early involvement in new

  6. Real Options in an Aymmetric Duopoly : Who Benefits from your Competitive Disadvantage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pawlina, G.; Kort, P.M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper considers the impact of investment cost asymmetry on the value and optimal real option exercise strategies of firms under imperfect competition.Both firms have an opportunity to invest in a project enhancing (ceteris paribus) the profit now.We show that three types of equilibria exist and

  7. Perspective on long-range nuclear energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harms, W.O.

    1977-01-01

    The study group whose effort is presented here concluded that the United States urgently needs to have a breeder option available for possible deployment before the year 2000 primarily because of uncertainties in the availability of fossil fuels and uranium supplies. It was recommended that the U/Pu LMFBR program proceed as planned, including prompt construction of the CRBRP and its associated fuel cycle facilities. Alternative cycle studies should be pursued, but without significantly delaying the current program. There are technological choices which, in suitable political contexts, may somewhat reduce proliferation risks; of these, only those that employ breeders preserve the breeder option (and the nuclear option in the long term. These alternatives must be coupled with political agreements to have any significant effect on proliferation potential internationally. These same political agreements should suffice to control the U/Pu breeder cycle; there is only a difference in degree between the U/Pu and the denatured Th/U-233 cycles

  8. The impact of delaying an investment decision on R&D projects in real option game

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Shuhua; Li, Yue; Gao, Fanglu

    2016-01-01

    In a research and development (R&D) investment, the cost and the project value of such an investment are usually uncertain, which thus increases its complexity. Correspondingly, the NPV (Net Present Value) rule fails to evaluate the value of this project exactly, because this method does not take into account the market uncertainty, irreversibility of investment and ability of delay entry. In this paper, we employ the real option theory to evaluate the project value of a R&D investment. Since the cost of a R&D investment is very high and the flow of the information is crowded, an investor cannot make an immediate decision every time. So, the proposed real option model is an exchange option. At the same time, combining the real option and the game theory, we can find the Nash equilibrium which is the optimal strategy. Moreover, we also study how the delayed time influences the price of the project investment and how the different delayed times effect the choice of the optimal strategies.

  9. Valuation: From The Discounted Cash Flows (DCF Approach To The Real Options Approach (ROA Valuation: From The Discounted Cash Flows (DCF Approach To The Real Options Approach (ROA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Maya Ochoa

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available There exists an abysm between market prices and traditional valuation approaches such as Discounted Cash Flows (DCF, a fact that neither academics nor practitioners could continue ignoring. Recently, a complementary approach has taken a foothold into the valuation world. Building on the DCF approach yet going further in the sense of incorporating flexibility in management investment decisions, and taking advantage of the advances in option pricing theory, the real options approach (ROA has become the alternative to capital budgeting and, lately, to corporate valuation. Empirical evidence shows that ROA explains actual prices better than DCF approaches and nowadays there is no question that from a theoretical point of view, ROA is a much more appealing concept than passive NPV. However, its acceptance by practitioners has been very slow due to the complexity of real options pricing.Existe un abismo entre precios de Mercado y la valoración estimada por métodos tradicionales tales como Flujos de Caja Descontados, un hecho que ni académicos ni practicantes pueden continuar ignorando. Recientemente, una metodología complementaria ha tomado gran fuerza. Partiendo de los Flujos de Caja Descontados, pero incorporando flexibilidad en las decisiones de inversión y aprovechando los avances en la teoría de valoración de opciones, el enfoque de opciones reales (ROA se ha convertido en la alternativa para presupuestación de capital y valoración de empresas. La evidencia empírica muestra que ROA explica los precios de mercado mejor que los enfoques basados en flujos de caja descontados y, hoy en día, no hay discusión de que es más atractivo desde un punto de vista teórico; sin embargo, su utilización en la práctica ha sido muy limitada debido a las dificultades que presenta la valoración de las opciones reales.

  10. A real options approach to biotechnology Investment policy - the case of developing a Campylobacter vaccine to poultry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mogens; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the article is to identify and analyse public-private incentives for the development and marketing of new animal vaccines within a real options methodological framework, and to investigate how real options methodology can be utilized to support economic incentives for vaccine developme...

  11. In or Out: The Effect of Euro Membership on the Exercise of Real Business Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos

    2011-01-01

    This empirical study of manufacturing firms (NAICS 33) in the EU15 countries goes beyond the trade statistics that have indicated only a small to negligible effect from the introduction of the Euro and shows that the introduction of the Euro has made Euro firms (firms based in one of the twelve...... Euro countries) more inclined than non-Euro firms (firms based in one of the three non-Euro countries: UK, Sweden and Denmark) to undertake various forms of real actions (exercise real business options) such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch...

  12. A real option analysis of investments in hydropower-The case of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjaerland, Frode

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a valuation study of hydropower investment opportunities in the Norwegian context. According to NVE (Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, the regulator), there is a potential of 39 TWh not yet developed (generation in a normal year is approximately 120 TWh). By using the conceptual real option framework of Dixit and Pindyck [1994. Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ] one can estimate the value of investment opportunities to NOK 11 million/GWh (EUR 1.4 million/GWh). Furthermore, the optimal trigger price for initiating an investment based on electricity forward prices is calculated to NOK 0.32/kWh (EUR 0.04/kWh). The analysis shows consistency between real option theory and aggregate investment behaviour in Norwegian hydropower

  13. A real option-based simulation model to evaluate investments in pump storage plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muche, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Investments in pump storage plants are expected to grow especially due to their ability to store an excess of supply from wind power plants. In order to evaluate these investments correctly the peculiarities of pump storage plants and the characteristics of liberalized power markets have to be considered. The main characteristics of power markets are the strong power price volatility and the occurrence of prices spikes. In this article a valuation model is developed capturing these aspects using power price simulation, optimization of unit commitment and capital market theory. This valuation model is able to value a future price-based unit commitment planning that corresponds to future scope of actions also called real options. The resulting real option value for the pump storage plant is compared with the traditional net present value approach. Because this approach is not able to evaluate scope of actions correctly it results in strongly smaller investment values and forces wrong investment decisions.

  14. Evaluation of Cloud Computing Hidden Benefits by Using Real Options Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Náplava

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing technologies have brought new attributes to the IT world. One of them is a flexibility of IT resources. It enables effectively both to downsize and upsize the capacity of IT resources in real time. Requirements for IT size change defines business strategy and actual market state. IT costs are not stable but dynamic in this case. Standard investment valuation methods (both static and dynamic are not able to include the flexibility attribute to the evaluation of IT projects. This article describes the application of the Real Options Analysis method for the valuation of the cloud computing flexibility. The method compares costs of the on-premise and cloud computing solutions by combining put and call option valuation. Cloud computing providers can use the method as an advanced tool that explains hidden benefits of cloud computing. Unexperienced cloud computing customers can simulate the market behavior and better plan necessary IT investments.

  15. When to Wait for More Evidence? Real Options Analysis in Proton Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrams, Keith R.; de Ruysscher, Dirk; Pijls-Johannesma, Madelon; Peters, Hans J.M.; Beutner, Eric; Lambin, Philippe; Joore, Manuela A.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose. Trends suggest that cancer spending growth will accelerate. One method for controlling costs is to examine whether the benefits of new technologies are worth the extra costs. However, especially new and emerging technologies are often more costly, while limited clinical evidence of superiority is available. In that situation it is often unclear whether to adopt the new technology now, with the risk of investing in a suboptimal therapy, or to wait for more evidence, with the risk of withholding patients their optimal treatment. This trade-off is especially difficult when it is costly to reverse the decision to adopt a technology, as is the case for proton therapy. Real options analysis, a technique originating from financial economics, assists in making this trade-off. Methods. We examined whether to adopt proton therapy, as compared to stereotactic body radiotherapy, in the treatment of inoperable stage I non-small cell lung cancer. Three options are available: adopt without further research; adopt and undertake a trial; or delay adoption and undertake a trial. The decision depends on the expected net gain of each option, calculated by subtracting its total costs from its expected benefits. Results. In The Netherlands, adopt and trial was found to be the preferred option, with an optimal sample size of 200 patients. Increase of treatment costs abroad and costs of reversal altered the preferred option. Conclusion. We have shown that real options analysis provides a transparent method of weighing the costs and benefits of adopting and/or further researching new and expensive technologies. PMID:22147003

  16. A real-options analysis of wine grape farming in north west Victoria

    OpenAIRE

    Seyoum, Emayenesh; Chan, Chris

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports a use of a real-options valuation methodology to analyse wine grape farm investment under price and yield uncertainty. Revenue levels to incentivise entry and exit were calculated for three different sizes of wine grape farms in North West Victoria. The modelling identified lower exit and higher entry triggers than indicated by conventional net present value calculation. The wide gap of estimated indeterminacy in farm investment highlights the intertwined influence of numer...

  17. Construction strategies and lifetime uncertainties for nuclear projects: A real option analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jain, Shashi, E-mail: s.jain@cwi.nl [TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands); Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Roelofs, Ferry, E-mail: roelofs@nrg.eu [Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Oosterlee, Cornelis W., E-mail: c.w.oosterlee@cwi.nl [CWI – Centrum Wiskunde and Informatica, Amsterdam (Netherlands); TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands)

    2013-12-15

    Highlights: • Real options can be used to value flexibility of modular reactors. • Value of NPPs increases with implementation of long term cost reductions. • Levels of uncertainties affect the choice between projects. -- Abstract: Small and medium sized reactors, SMRs (according to IAEA, ‘small’ are reactors with power less than 300 MWe, and ‘medium’ with power less than 700 MWe) are considered as an attractive option for investment in nuclear power plants. SMRs may benefit from flexibility of investment, reduced upfront expenditure, and easy integration with small sized grids. Large reactors on the other hand have been an attractive option due to economy of scale. In this paper we focus on the advantages of flexibility due to modular construction of SMRs. Using real option analysis (ROA) we help a utility determine the value of sequential modular SMRs. Numerical results under different considerations, like possibility of rare events, learning, uncertain lifetimes are reported for a single large unit and modular SMRs.

  18. Construction strategies and lifetime uncertainties for nuclear projects: A real option analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, Shashi; Roelofs, Ferry; Oosterlee, Cornelis W.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Real options can be used to value flexibility of modular reactors. • Value of NPPs increases with implementation of long term cost reductions. • Levels of uncertainties affect the choice between projects. -- Abstract: Small and medium sized reactors, SMRs (according to IAEA, ‘small’ are reactors with power less than 300 MWe, and ‘medium’ with power less than 700 MWe) are considered as an attractive option for investment in nuclear power plants. SMRs may benefit from flexibility of investment, reduced upfront expenditure, and easy integration with small sized grids. Large reactors on the other hand have been an attractive option due to economy of scale. In this paper we focus on the advantages of flexibility due to modular construction of SMRs. Using real option analysis (ROA) we help a utility determine the value of sequential modular SMRs. Numerical results under different considerations, like possibility of rare events, learning, uncertain lifetimes are reported for a single large unit and modular SMRs

  19. THE THEORY OF REAL OPTIONS in investment ANALYSIS of agroforestry systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maísa Santos Joaquim

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study we compared the values generated by traditional economic analysis (Net Present Value - NPV with Real Options Method. The objective was to apply the method proposed by Copeland & Antikarov for rainbow options, due to three stochastic variables selected with decision of abandonment if the project value with flexibility was less than the value of the underlying stock. It enabled the flexibility value generation in order to entrepreneurs to have more confidence in their decision when they are investing in a project with Agroforestry System, with different scenarios visualization in a single analysis. The results evidenced that the economic viability analysis, using Real Options, provided the best view of the possible scenarios, within a range generated by the prices volatility. The Net Present Value adopted as the underlying stock value was R$ 5,684.32, using the discount rate (WACC of 9.95% and risk-free interest rate of 7.5%. To determine the volatility were calculated: the logarithmic return standard deviation (27.06, the average (0.0883, upward movements values (u (1.3107 with 61.34% of probability and downward movements values (d(0.7628 with 38.66%  of probability. The option value in case of abandonment was R$ 2,059.01/ha positive. The results showed that the NPV overestimated the project return and that it would be viable to abandon it.

  20. Combination of real options and game-theoretic approach in investment analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arasteh, Abdollah

    2016-09-01

    Investments in technology create a large amount of capital investments by major companies. Assessing such investment projects is identified as critical to the efficient assignment of resources. Viewing investment projects as real options, this paper expands a method for assessing technology investment decisions in the linkage existence of uncertainty and competition. It combines the game-theoretic models of strategic market interactions with a real options approach. Several key characteristics underlie the model. First, our study shows how investment strategies rely on competitive interactions. Under the force of competition, firms hurry to exercise their options early. The resulting "hurry equilibrium" destroys the option value of waiting and involves violent investment behavior. Second, we get best investment policies and critical investment entrances. This suggests that integrating will be unavoidable in some information product markets. The model creates some new intuitions into the forces that shape market behavior as noticed in the information technology industry. It can be used to specify best investment policies for technology innovations and adoptions, multistage R&D, and investment projects in information technology.

  1. Cost-effective design of ringwall storage hybrid power plants: A real options analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weibel, Sebastian; Madlener, Reinhard

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Economic viability, optimal size, and siting of a hybrid ringwall hydro power plant. • Real options analysis for optimal investment timing and stochastic storage volumes. • Stochastic PV and solar power production affects optimal size of the storage device. • Monte Carlo simulation is used for wind/solar power, el. price, and investment cost. • Numerical computations for two different hybrid ringwall storage plant scenarios. - Abstract: We study the economic viability and optimal sizing and siting of a hybrid plant that combines a ringwall hydro storage system with wind and solar power plants (ringwall storage hybrid power plant, RSHPP). A real options model is introduced to analyze the economics of an onshore RSHPP, and in particular of the varying storage volume in light of the stochastic character of wind and solar power, as well as the optimal investment timing under uncertainty. In fact, many uncertainties arise in such a project. Energy production is determined by the stochastic character of wind and solar power, and affects the optimal size of the storage device. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to analyze the following sources of uncertainty: (i) wind intensity and solar irradiation; (ii) future electricity price; and (iii) investment costs. The results yield the optimal size of the storage device; the energy market on which the operator should sell the electricity generated; numerical examples for two different RSHPP scenarios; and a real options model for analyzing the opportunity to defer the project investment and thus to exploit the value of waiting

  2. Optimizing the Level of Renewable Electric R&D Expenditures Using Real Options Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, G.; Owens, B.

    2003-02-01

    One of the primary objectives of the United States' federal non-hydro renewable electric R&D program is to promote the development of technologies that have the potential to provide consumers with stable and secure energy supplies. In order to quantify the benefits provided by continued federal renewable electric R&D, this paper uses ''real option'' pricing techniques to estimate the value of renewable electric technologies in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices. Within the real options analysis framework, the current value of expected future supply from renewable electric technologies, net of federal R&D expenditures, is estimated to be $30.6 billion. Of this value, 86% can be attributed to past federal R&D efforts, and 14% can be attributed to future federal R&D efforts, assuming continued federal R&D funding at $300 million/year. In addition, real options analysis shows that the value of renewable electric technologies increases as current and future R&D funding levels increase. This indicates that the current level of federal renewable electric R&D funding is sub-optimal low.

  3. Typology of Options for Metal Recycling: Australia’s Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artem Golev

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available While Australia has traditionally relied on obtaining metals from primary sources (namely mined natural resources, there is significant potential to recover metals from end-of-life-products and industrial waste. Although any metals recycling value chain requires a feasible technology at its core, many other non-technical factors are key links in the chain, which can compromise the overall viability to recycle a commodity and/or product. The “Wealth from Waste” Cluster project funded by the Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO Flagship Collaboration Fund and partner universities is focusing on identifying viable options to “mine” metals contained in discarded urban infrastructure, manufactured products and consumer goods. A key aspect of this research is to understand the critical non-technical barriers and system opportunities to enhance rates of metals recycling in Australia. Work to date has estimated the mass and current worth of metals in above ground resources. Using these outcomes as a basis, a typology for different options for (metal reuse and recycling has been developed to classify the common features, which is presented in this article. In addition, the authors investigate the barriers and enablers in the recycling value chain, and propose a set of requirements for a feasible pathway to close the material loop for metals in Australia.

  4. A real option-based model for promoting sustainable energy projects under the clean development mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hyounkyu; Park, Taeil; Kim, Byungil; Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Hyoungkwan

    2013-01-01

    The clean development mechanism (CDM) provides a way of assisting sustainable development in developing countries for developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Despite its intended benefits, the primary CDM market decreased from US$5.8 billion in 2006 to US$1.5 billion in 2010. One of the primary reasons for the reduction of market size is that developed countries as investors have a high level of risks caused by the volatility of the market price for certified emission reductions (CERs). Another issue to be resolved is that developing countries as host countries cannot claim any right to the CERs produced on their own land. This paper presents a real option-based model for both parties (developed and developing countries) to have their fair share of profits and risks by controlling the uncertainty associated with the future value of CERs. A case study illustrated that the proposed model can effectively attract investors to CDM projects leading to mitigation of climate change. - Highlights: ► This study focused on the risks associated with the uncertainty of future CER value in CDM projects. ► A real option-based model was developed for both parties in CDM to have fair share of profit and risk. ► Key variables and boundary conditions were identified for application of real option to CDM. ► The model allowed both parties to own options, which have an identical value. ► Hydropower plant projects in Indonesia were used to illustrate the implementation of the model

  5. Designing regulatory frameworks for merchant transmission investments by real options analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pringles, Rolando; Olsina, Fernando; Garcés, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    In deregulated electricity markets, the transmission network is a key infrastructure for enabling competition in the generation sector. A deficient expansion of the transmission grid prevents the realization of the benefits in terms of efficiency associated with market mechanisms. Consequently, it is essential to provide clear investment policies and economic signals to attract timely and efficient transmission investments in order to develop the system at minimum cost meeting the requirements of generators and consumers, while keeping adequate levels of service quality and reliability. This paper proposes a modern tool of economic evaluation based on real options analysis that provides the regulator the ability to assess various incentives that would lead transmission investors to make efficient decisions in highly uncertain environments. Real options properly values partially irreversible investment decisions, such as to defer, modify or abandon an investment project in response to the arrival of new information or as uncertainties are resolved. Decisions are evaluated from the point of view of a transmission investor trying to maximize its own profits in the time period set to recover the capital invested. The results allow the study of the behavior of transmission investors regarding their decision making when they have the possibility to manage the option to defer, under different regulatory schemes that encourage the expansion of the transmission system. - Highlights: • Regulatory frameworks for efficient and timely transmission expansions are designed. • Irreversibility and uncertainty of transmission investment is properly accounted for. • Response of network investors to regulatory incentives is quantitatively established

  6. Real Option in Capital Budgeting for SMEs: Insight from Steel Company

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muharam, F. M.; Tarrazon, M. A.

    2017-06-01

    Complex components of investment projects can only be analysed accurately if flexibility and comprehensive consideration of uncertainty are incorporated into valuation. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis has failed to cope with strategic future alternatives that affect the right value of investment projects. Real option valuation (ROV) proves to be the right tool for this purpose since it enables to calculate the enlarged or strategic Net Present Value (ENPV). This study attempts to provide an insight of the usage of ROV in capital budgeting and investment decision-making processes of SMEs. Exploring into the first stage processing of steel industry, analysis of alternatives to cancel, to expand, to defer or to abandon is performed. Completed with multiple options interaction and a sensitivity analysis, our findings prove that the application of ROV is beneficial for complex investment projects independently from the size of the company and particularly suitable in scenarios with scarce resources. The application of Real Option Valuation (ROV) is plausible and beneficial for SMEs to be incorporated in the strategic decision making process.

  7. Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model. The case of Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Shun-Chung; Shih, Li-Hsing

    2010-01-01

    This study presents a policy benefit evaluation model that integrates cost efficiency curve information on renewable power generation technologies into real options analysis (ROA) methods. The proposed model evaluates quantitatively the policy value provided by developing renewable energy (RE) in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices and RE policy-related factors. The economic intuition underlying the policy-making process is elucidated, while empirical analysis illustrates the option value embedded in the current development policy in Taiwan for wind power. In addition to revealing the benefits that RE development provides when considering real options, analytical results indicate that ROA is a highly effective means of quantifying how policy planning uncertainty including managerial flexibility influences RE development. In addition to assessing the policy value of current RE development policy, this study also compares policy values in terms of internalized external costs and varying feed-in tariff (FIT). Simulation results demonstrate that the RE development policy with internalized CO 2 emission costs is appropriate policy planning from sustainability point of view. Furthermore, relationship between varying FIT and policy values can be shown quantitatively and appropriate FIT level could be determined accordingly. (author)

  8. The Value of a Biotechnology Start-up: Creative Destruction and Real Options Approach The Value of a Biotechnology Start-up: Creative Destruction and Real Options Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Maya Ochoa

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The value of investments in high growth start-up firms is difficult to assess because payments are far in the future and their arrival is uncertain. Some of these firms may seem overvalued according to traditional methods, such as the Net Present Value, which fails to account for three drivers of value for highly innovative industries: intellectual capital as the engine of innovation, market power as the expectation of monopolistic power when innovating, and a growth option which may be exercised in the case of success.This paper presents a case study on a biotechnology start-up and applies the Creative Destruction – Real Options approach (CD-ROA (Maya, 2004 which takes into account all three drivers of value and is able to explain the high prices investors pay for shares of a company in this industry. It proves that such prices are not cases of overpricing but of recognition of the large growth potential of firms which are part of highly innovative industries.La valoración de la inversión en compañías nacientes de alto crecimiento no estarea fácil, pues los ingresos esperados se generan en un futuro lejano y bajo granincertidumbre. De acuerdo con métodos tradicionales de valoración como el ValorPresente Neto, el mercado parece sobrevalorar algunas de estas compañías. Ello sedebe a que estos métodos tradicionales no tienen en cuenta tres elementos esencialesque determinan el valor en estos casos: el capital intelectual como el motor de lainnovación, el poder de mercado por la expectativa de ingresos monopolísticos sise da la innovación y una opción real de crecimiento que puede ser ejercida en casode éxito.Este artículo aplica a una empresa de biotecnología el enfoque de opciones realesy destrucción creativa (Maya, 2004, el cual incluye estos tres determinantes delvalor y logra explicar el alto precio que los inversionistas pagan por una acción deeste tipo de empresas. Se demuestra que éste no es un caso de

  9. A real options approach to biotechnology investment policy-the case of developing a Campylobacter vaccine to poultry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, Mogens; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

    2016-06-01

    The aim of the article is to identify and analyse public-private incentives for the development and marketing of new animal vaccines within a real options methodological framework, and to investigate how real options methodology can be utilized to support economic incentives for vaccine development in a cost-effective way. The development of a vaccine against Campylobacter jejuni in poultry is applied as a case study. Employing the real options methodology, the net present value of the vaccine R&D project becomes larger than a purely probabilistic expected present value throughout the different stages of the project - and the net present value becomes larger, when more types of real options are taken into consideration. The insight from the real options analysis reveals opportunities for new policies to promote the development of animal vaccines. One such approach might be to develop schemes combining stage-by-stage optimized subsidies in the individual development stages, with proper account taken of investors'/developers' economic incentives to proceed, sell or cancel the project in the respective stages. Another way of using the real options approach to support the development of desirable animal vaccines could be to issue put options for the vaccine candidate, enabling vaccine developers to hedge against the economic risk from market volatility. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. What do you do when the binomial cannot value real options? The LSM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Alonso

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Least-Squares Monte Carlo model (LSM model has emerged as the derivative valuation technique with the greatest impact in current practice. As with other options valuation models, the LSM algorithm was initially posited in the field of financial derivatives and its extension to the realm of real options requires considering certain questions which might hinder understanding of the algorithm and which the present paper seeks to address. The implementation of the LSM model combines Monte Carlo simulation, dynamic programming and statistical regression in a flexible procedure suitable for application to valuing nearly all types of corporate investments. The goal of this paper is to show how the LSM algorithm is applied in the context of a corporate investment, thus contributing to the understanding of the principles of its operation.

  11. The value of product flexibility in nuclear hydrogen technologies: A real options analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun; Yildiz, Bilge; Conzelmann, Guenter; Petri, Mark C.

    2009-01-01

    Previous economic studies of nuclear hydrogen technologies focused on levelized costs without accounting for risks and uncertainties faced by potential investors. To address some of these risks and uncertainties, we used real options theory to assess the profitability of three nuclear hydrogen production technologies in evolving electricity and hydrogen markets. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to represent the uncertainty in hydrogen and electricity prices. The model computes both the expected value and the distribution of discounted profits from the production plant. It also quantifies the value of the option to switch between hydrogen and electricity production. Under these assumptions, we conclude that investors will find significant value in the capability to switch plant output between electricity and hydrogen. (author)

  12. Using real options to determine optimal funding strategies for CO2 capture, transport and storage projects in the European Union

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eckhause, Jeremy; Herold, Johannes

    2014-01-01

    Several projects in the European Union (EU) are currently under development to implement the carbon capture, transport and storage (CCS) technology on a large scale and may be subject to public funding under EU support initiatives. These CCS projects may develop any combination of three types of operating levels: pilot, demonstration and full-scale, representing progressing levels of electric power generation capability. Several projects have commenced at the demonstration level, with full-scale commercial levels planned for approximately 2020. Taking the perspective of a funding agency, we employ a real options framework for determining an optimal project selection and funding strategy for the development of full-scale CCS plants. Specifically, we formulate and solve a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) for obtaining optimal funding solutions in order to achieve at least one successfully operating full-scale CCS plant by a target year. The model demonstrates the improved risk reduction by employing such a multi-stage competition. We then extend the model to consider two sensitivities: (1) the flexibility to spend that budget among the time periods and (2) optimizing the budget, but specifying each time period's allocation a priori. State size and runtimes of the SDP model are provided. - Highlights: • Projects implementing three different CCS technology types are described. • We obtain projects’ transition probabilities and costs from expert interviews. • We use a multi-stage real options model to obtain optimal funding strategies. • Using this approach, actual decision-makers could reduce risks in CCS development

  13. A real options approach to analyse wind energy investments under different support schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitzing, Lena; Juul, Nina; Drud, Michael; Boomsma, Trine Krogh

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Real options model for wind projects considering investment timing and sizing. • Introducing a capacity constraint in the optimisation. • Addressing several uncertainty factors while still providing analytical solution. • Comparative policy analysis of investment incentives from different support schemes. • Improved quantification of trade-off between fast deployment and large projects. - Abstract: A real options model is developed to evaluate wind energy investments in a realistic and easily applicable way. Considering optimal investment timing and sizing (capacity choice), the model introduces a capacity constraint as part of the optimisation. Several correlated uncertainty factors are combined into a single stochastic process, which allows for analytical (closed-form) solutions. The approach is well suited for quantitative policy analysis, such as the comparison of different support schemes. A case study for offshore wind in the Baltic Sea quantifies differences in investment incentives under feed-in tariffs, feed-in premiums and tradable green certificates. Investors can under certificate schemes require up to 3% higher profit margins than under tariffs due to higher variance in profits. Feed-in tariffs may lead to 15% smaller project sizes. This trade-off between faster deployment of smaller projects and slower deployment of larger projects is neglected using traditional net present value approaches. In the analysis of such trade-off, previous real options studies did not consider a capacity constraint, which is here shown to decrease the significance of the effect. The impact on investment incentives also depends on correlations between the underlying stochastic factors. The results may help investors to make informed investment decisions and policy makers to strategically design renewable support and develop tailor-made incentive schemes.

  14. Real options and a large producer: the case of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppo, J.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we extend the real option theory to consider the situation of a large producer and we employ the model to electricity markets. This is important because many producers in these markets affect the market supply and, therefore, also the electricity price. This production price effect influences not only on the assets that the energy company owns but also on its investment opportunities. We show that this production's price effect has to be considered in the investment analysis if the company is not able to hedge the price effect in the financial markets and if there is no competition on the investment opportunity. (author)

  15. Integrated Portfolio Analysis: Return on Investment and Real Options Analysis of Intelligence Information Systems (Cryptologic Carry On Program)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rios, Jr., Cesar G; Housel, Thomas; Mun, Johnathan

    2006-01-01

    ...) on individual projects, programs, and processes within a portfolio of IT investments. Using KVA historical data as a platform, the authors evaluate potential strategic investments with real options analysis...

  16. Real options valuation of US federal renewable energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2007-01-01

    Benefits analysis of US Federal government research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD 3 ) programmes for renewable energy (RE) technology improvement typically employs a deterministic forecast of the cost and performance of renewable and non-renewable fuels. The benefits estimate for the programme derives from the difference between two forecasts, with and without the RD 3 programme in place. Three deficiencies of this approach are that it ignores: (1) uncertainty in the cost of non-renewable energy (NRE); (2) the possibility of adjustment to the RD 3 effort commensurate with the evolving state of the world; and (3) the underlying technical risk associated with RD 3 . In this paper, an intuitive approach to determining the option value of RE RD 3 is developed. This approach seeks to tackle the first two deficiencies noted above by providing an estimate via a compound real option of an RE RD 3 programme in a future with uncertain NRE costs. A binomial lattice reveals the economic intuition underlying the decision-making process, while a numerical example illustrates the option components embedded in a simplified representation of current US Federal RE RD 3

  17. Decision-making model of generation technology under uncertainty based on real option theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ming, Zeng; Ping, Zhang; Shunkun, Yu; Ge, Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. • The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced. • Practical data was used to prove the validity of the model. • Impact of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed. - Abstract: The introduction of market competition and the increased uncertainty factors makes the generators have to decide not only on whether to invest generation capacity or not but also on what kind of generation technology to choose. In this paper, a decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced as the fundamental of the model. In order to explain the decision-making process of generator’s investment, the decision-making optimization model was built considering two generation technologies, i.e., the heat-only system and the combined heat and power generation. Also, we discussed the theory deducing process, which explained how to eliminate the overrated economic potential caused by risk hazard, based on economic evaluation of both generation technologies. Finally, practical data from electricity market of Inner Mongolia was used to prove the validity of the model and the impact of uncertainties of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed according to the simulated results.

  18. Identification of the real options in a program of nuclear plants; Identificacion de las opciones reales en un programa de plantas nucleoelectricas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camacho G, D.; Diaz N, M. J.; Reinking C, A. [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Paseo Cuauhnahuac 8532, Jiutepec, Morelos 62550 (Mexico)]. e-mail: danielkmacho@yahoo.com.mx

    2008-07-01

    The development of our societies and our economies this intimately related to electric power and this as well with the generating sources, due to the projection of world-wide growth should go associate with a strategy of growth of energy generation. Considering to the nuclear power as an option to satisfy the energy needs that a country can provide two main immediate benefits: The stabilization of prices of security of provision of electric power of the nation. The care of the environment, since the gas discharges greenhouse are almost null. At the moment nuclear energy represents economically a viable option for the capital investment, taking into account the development from technology, the policies implemented by the state and the prices of other fuels. Due to the great investment that its require for the nuclear plants are necessary to use financial tools that allow to analyze the future scenes in which ours investment can be seen affected and to value the flexibility of being able to enlarge, to postpone or to stop our project in order to have majors profits or to diminish the lost ones. This valuation of the flexibility can be obtained from the called method Real Options. By analysis of Real Options the process is understood to apply to the methodology of the Financial Options to the valuation of projects or the management of real assets. The Real Options appear in flexible plans, projects, activities or enterprise investments, like for example, to leave or to sell the investment project before concluding it, changing to their use or its technology, to prolong their life, the option to choose, one or the other capacity, among others possibilities. In this work is an example of the application of the method of Real Options in the decision to invest or to defer the investment for the construction of a nuclear plant following the behavior of the tariffs in the market or the costs of generation of other technologies with which a nuclear plant competes. (Author)

  19. Evaluating cash benefits as real options for a commodity producer in an emerging market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The amount of cash a firm should maintain is an old problem tackled by finance literature. The recent advances in finance, mainly in the derivatives area, has opened the opportunity to revisit this subject. Cossin and Hricko (2004 studied the benefits of cash holdings using the Real Options approach. We follow their ideas extending the problem to a specific commodity producer firm in an emerging economy. We evaluate the benefits considering that raising capital takes time (timing benefit and also the benefit of avoiding the issue of securities at unfavorable moments (underpricing benefit. We use numerical procedures to solve the problem. Despite the fact that the results are not totally intuitive, we verify that the timing benefit is much more relevant than that of avoiding the underpricing benefit and that firms in emerging economies have greater advantage holding cash than those in developed economies. There is empirical evidence of this last result in the literature.

  20. REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT SCENARIOS IN THE PHILIPPINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Casper Agaton

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract - With the continuously rising energy demand and much dependence on imported fossil fuels, the Philippines is developing more sustainable sources of energy. Renewable energy seems to be a better alternative solution to meet the country’s energy supply and security concerns. Despite its huge potential, investment in renewable energy sources is challenged with competitive prices of fossil fuels, high start-up cost and lower feed-in tariff rates for renewables. To address these problems, this study aims to analyze energy investment scenarios in the Philippines using real options approach. This compares the attractiveness of investing in renewable energy over continuing to use coal for electricity generation under uncertainties in coal prices, investments cost, electricity prices, growth of investment in renewables, and imposing carbon tax for using fossil fuels.

  1. Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boomsma, Trine Krogh; Meade, Nigel; Fleten, Stein-Erik

    2012-01-01

    -in tariff encourages earlier investment. Nevertheless, as investment has been undertaken, renewable energy certificate trading creates incentives for larger projects. In our baseline scenario and taking the fixed feed-in tariff as a base, the revenue required to trigger investments is 61% higher......This paper adopts a real options approach to analyze investment timing and capacity choice for renewable energy projects under different support schemes. The main purpose is to examine investment behavior under the most extensively employed support schemes, namely, feed-in tariffs and renewable...... energy certificate trading. We consider both multiple sources of uncertainty under each support scheme and uncertainty with respect to any change of support scheme, and we obtain both analytical (when possible) and numerical solutions. In a Nordic case study based on wind power, we find that the feed...

  2. Real options theory to the pricing of allowances contract to carbon emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horii, Leticia Takahashi; Parente, Virginia; Goldemberg, Jose

    2010-01-01

    The objective of this work is to develop a pricing model contract for allowances to emit carbon through Real Options. Emissions allowances are equivalent tons of carbon traded between Annex I countries from companies that have the ability to reduce their emissions beyond what is assigned to it. The surplus of emission reductions produced by these companies may be sold in the emissions market. Thus, this work can contribute to improving the management of contractual risk and enable companies estimated the price at which a contract can be signed. Properly evaluate the contracts that the market environment is a challenge for companies. The historic low of information and randomness in the price of carbon allowances in the spot market suggest extreme caution in its use. (author)

  3. A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

  4. Optimal feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic power generation in China: A real options analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, M.M.; Zhou, D.Q.; Zhou, P.; Liu, G.Q.

    2016-01-01

    The feed-in tariff policy is widely used to promote the development of renewable energy. China also adopts feed-in tariff policy to attract greater investment in solar photovoltaic power generation. This study employs real options method to assess the optimal levels of feed-in tariffs in 30 provinces of China. The uncertainties in CO_2 price and investment cost are considered. A method that integrates the backward dynamic programming algorithm and Least-Squares Monte Carlo method is used to solve the model. The results demonstrate that the feed-in tariffs of 30 provinces range from 0.68 RMB/kWh to 1.71 RMB/kWh, and the average level is 1.01 RMB/kWh. On this basis, we find that the levels of sub-regional feed-in tariff announced in 2013 are no longer appropriate and should be adjusted as soon as possible. We have also identified the implications of technological progress and carbon emission trading schemes, as well as the importance of strengthening electricity transmission. It has been suggested that the Chinese government takes diverse measures, including increasing research and development investment, establishing and improving a nationwide carbon emission trading scheme and accelerating the construction of electricity-transmission infrastructure, to reduce the required feed-in tariff and promote the development of solar photovoltaic power generation. - Highlights: • We estimate the optimal levels of feed-in tariffs for 30 provinces in China by using real options method. • The uncertainties in CO_2 price and investment cost are considered. • The feed-in tariffs of 30 provinces range from 0.68 RMB/kWh to 1.71 RMB/kWh, and the average level is 1.01 RMB/kWh.

  5. Hydrogen storage for wind parks: A real options evaluation for an optimal investment in more flexibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroniger, Daniel; Madlener, Reinhard

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Economic analysis of investing in H 2 storage for excess wind power production. • Use of real options analysis to account for uncertainty and managerial flexibility. • Hourly profits are simulated for profit-maximizing operation of the storage device. • Revenues by load factor increase, offering minute reserve, temporal arbitrage, H 2 sale. • Power-to-power is unprofitable under current techno-political conditions in Germany. - Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the economic viability of hydrogen storage for excess electricity produced in wind power plants. For the analysis, we define two scenarios (50 MW system with and without re-electrification unit) and apply Monte Carlo simulation and real options analysis (ROA) to compute hourly profits under uncertainty regarding wind speed, spot market electricity prices, and call of minute reserve capacity. Hydrogen as a storage medium helps to either (1) increase capacity utilization of the wind park in case of grid disconnection; (2) to offer minute reserve; or (3) to exploit temporal price arbitrage at the electricity spot market; additionally, hydrogen can also be directly sold as a commodity. We find that power-to-power operation is highly uneconomical under current framework conditions in Germany, irrespective of potential energy efficiency gains. Interestingly, due to counterbalancing effects, offshore wind parks are found to have only a modest economic advantage compared to onshore ones. The power-to-fuel plant can be operated profitably (at hydrogen prices of more than 0.36 € m −3 and a 100% utilization of the electrolyzer) if hydrogen is directly marketed instead of used to store and re-generate electrical energy. The ROA recommends investment in a storage device without re-electrification unit beyond an expected project value that is about twice the investment cost of the storage device, a figure which is reduced markedly as conversion efficiency rises, assuming technical change

  6. A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumbaroglu, Guerkan; Madlener, Reinhard; Demirel, Mustafa

    2008-01-01

    This study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis. The model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year-by-year basis, thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies. Price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices. Demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price-sensitive, as the electricity market deregulation proceeds, reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes (such as time-of-use pricing, unbundled electricity services, and choice of supplier). The empirical analysis is based on data for the Turkish electricity supply industry. Apart from general implications for policy-making, it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies

  7. Water resources planning under climate change: Assessing the robustness of real options for the Blue Nile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeuland, Marc; Whittington, Dale

    2014-03-01

    This article presents a methodology for planning new water resources infrastructure investments and operating strategies in a world of climate change uncertainty. It combines a real options (e.g., options to defer, expand, contract, abandon, switch use, or otherwise alter a capital investment) approach with principles drawn from robust decision-making (RDM). RDM comprises a class of methods that are used to identify investment strategies that perform relatively well, compared to the alternatives, across a wide range of plausible future scenarios. Our proposed framework relies on a simulation model that includes linkages between climate change and system hydrology, combined with sensitivity analyses that explore how economic outcomes of investments in new dams vary with forecasts of changing runoff and other uncertainties. To demonstrate the framework, we consider the case of new multipurpose dams along the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. We model flexibility in design and operating decisions—the selection, sizing, and sequencing of new dams, and reservoir operating rules. Results show that there is no single investment plan that performs best across a range of plausible future runoff conditions. The decision-analytic framework is then used to identify dam configurations that are both robust to poor outcomes and sufficiently flexible to capture high upside benefits if favorable future climate and hydrological conditions should arise. The approach could be extended to explore design and operating features of development and adaptation projects other than dams.

  8. Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kind, Jarl M.; Baayen, Jorn H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter

    2018-04-01

    Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility.

  9. Real Options in Defense R and D: A Decision Tree Analysis Approach for Options to Defer, Abandon, and Expand

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    the sale of assets for salvage value. However, for defense R&D projects, since there is no secondhand market for the projects, this option is...Peli, 2001; Panayi & Trigeorgis, 1998; Perlitz et al., 1999). Moreover, there are also very comprehensive books on the theory and practice of

  10. A novel method to value real options in health care: the case of a multicohort human papillomavirus vaccination strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favato, Giampiero; Baio, Gianluca; Capone, Alessandro; Marcellusi, Andrea; Saverio Mennini, Francesco

    2013-07-01

    A large number of economic evaluations have already confirmed the cost-effectiveness of different human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies. Standard analyses might not capture the full economic value of novel vaccination programs because the cost-effectiveness paradigm fails to take into account the value of active management. Management decisions can be seen as real options, a term used to refer to the application of option pricing theory to the valuation of investments in nonfinancial assets in which much of the value is attributable to flexibility and learning over time. The aim of this article was to discuss the potential advantages shown by using the payoff method in the valuation of the cost-effectiveness of competing HPV immunization programs. This was the first study, to the best of our knowledge, to use the payoff method to determine the real option values of 4 different HPV vaccination strategies targeting female subjects aged 12, 15, 18, and 25 years. The payoff method derives the real option value from the triangular payoff distribution of the project's net present value, which is treated as a triangular fuzzy number. To inform the real option model, cost-effectiveness data were derived from an empirically calibrated Bayesian model designed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a multicohort HPV vaccination strategy in the context of the current cervical cancer screening program in Italy. A net health benefit approach was used to calculate the expected fuzzy net present value for each of the 4 vaccination strategies evaluated. Costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained seemed to be related to the number of cohorts targeted: a single cohort of girls aged 12 years (€10,955 [95% CI, -1,021 to 28,212]) revealed the lowest cost among the 4 alternative strategies evaluated. The real option valuation challenged the cost-effectiveness dominance of a single cohort of 12-year-old girls. The simultaneous vaccination of 2 cohorts of girls aged 12 and 15

  11. Use of real options in nuclear power plant valuation in the presence of uncertainty with CO2 emission credit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiriyama, Eriko; Suzuki, Atsuyuki

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the value of an investment in power generation assets that do not emit CO 2 , by using a real option model. This study evaluates the effects of future uncertainty on investment decision-making, by focusing on the uncertainty of CO 2 emission credits [yen/t-CO 2 ] in the fairly near future in Japan. Electric utilities are required to keep plans to prepare for various future uncertainties such as the price of CO 2 emission credits. The real option approach can evaluate the option value of decision-making under uncertainty. This study examined the option value of a power plant [yen/KW] to evaluate the effects of an externality under uncertainty. The results showed that nuclear power would have the most value under the forthcoming CO 2 emission limitations. In order to secure the effectiveness of measures against global warming, we should reconsider the roles of nuclear power plants in Japan. Finally, the real option model is shown to be an effective candidate for a decision-making support tool to deal with problems in energy environmental policy. (author)

  12. A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jácome, A.R.; Garrido, A.

    2017-09-01

    The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H) and exit (L) prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

  13. SMR and economics competitiveness in small grids. A real option analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locatelli, Giorgio; Mancino, Mauro; Lotti, Giovanni

    2014-01-01

    The optimal investment in power plants depends on many uncertain parameters (price of electricity, construction costs, cost of emissions, fuel cost..). Traditional approaches based on the Discounted Cash Flows methodologies, like the Net Present Value (NPV), do not properly take into account these uncertainties since they depend on the implicit assumption that all the decisions regarding the investment are evaluated in a specific moment (the time now) and cannot be postponed, waiting to acquire more information. An evolution of these methods is the Real Options Analysis (ROA) that considers a further value into the evaluation: the value of flexibility to choose when to invest. In this paper the ROA will be used to test a hypothesis made in literature, that small-medium sized plants (300-400 MWe) can be a suitable choice for small grids (or markets), thanks to their flexibility in the deployment. The assessment of this hypothesis is based on a ROA model that compares the investment in a Large Reactor (LR) vs. a group of Small Modular Reactors (SMR). Montecarlo simulations are used to approximate the probability distributions of the profitability indicators, both with a static approach, implying that investments are made immediately, and with a dynamic approach, letting the model decide when to invest (optimizing the profitability distribution). The result show as SMR, in small grid, can yield similar profitability in lower risky conditions. (orig.)

  14. Investment opportunity in China's overseas oil project: An empirical analysis based on real option approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Bao-Jun; Zhou, Hui-Ling; Chen, Hao; Wang, Kai; Cao, Hong

    2017-01-01

    China's overseas oil investments uphold national energy security. Located in the complex international economic and political environment, the benefits of overseas oil projects are affected by various uncertainties. Oil companies call for a set of evaluation method dealing with these uncertainties, especially when encountering low-oil-price conditions. It is much more crucial to answer when to optimally invest rather than whether to invest. This paper analyzes the investment opportunity of an oil project in the development and production phase considering uncertainty, irreversibility and management flexibility. The decision-making process combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method and the trinomial tree model of Real Option Approach (ROA). For practical purposes, tools of hurdle price, cumulative probability and decision tree are adopted. In addition, results of the case project show the economic feasibility at present and optimal start-up timing at the end of 2016. Besides, the lower cost parameters generally make it easier to meet the opportunity. The scenario analysis suggests the higher risk contributes to an earlier start-up. Furthermore, the issues of method applicability, investment signals and decision-lag effects are discussed. - Highlights: • Volatility is combined with fluctuations in oil price, exchange rate and political situation. • Hurdle price is adopted as a critical price to measure investment opportunity. • Scenario analysis suggests the higher risk contribute to earlier investment timing.

  15. SMR and economics competitiveness in small grids. A real option analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Locatelli, Giorgio [University of Lincoln - School of Engineering, Lincoln (United Kingdom). Faculty of Science; Mancino, Mauro; Lotti, Giovanni [Politecnico di Milano (Italy). Dept. of Management Economics and Industrial Engineering

    2014-03-15

    The optimal investment in power plants depends on many uncertain parameters (price of electricity, construction costs, cost of emissions, fuel cost..). Traditional approaches based on the Discounted Cash Flows methodologies, like the Net Present Value (NPV), do not properly take into account these uncertainties since they depend on the implicit assumption that all the decisions regarding the investment are evaluated in a specific moment (the time now) and cannot be postponed, waiting to acquire more information. An evolution of these methods is the Real Options Analysis (ROA) that considers a further value into the evaluation: the value of flexibility to choose when to invest. In this paper the ROA will be used to test a hypothesis made in literature, that small-medium sized plants (300-400 MWe) can be a suitable choice for small grids (or markets), thanks to their flexibility in the deployment. The assessment of this hypothesis is based on a ROA model that compares the investment in a Large Reactor (LR) vs. a group of Small Modular Reactors (SMR). Montecarlo simulations are used to approximate the probability distributions of the profitability indicators, both with a static approach, implying that investments are made immediately, and with a dynamic approach, letting the model decide when to invest (optimizing the profitability distribution). The result show as SMR, in small grid, can yield similar profitability in lower risky conditions. (orig.)

  16. A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andres R. Jácome

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H and exit (L prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

  17. Real option valuation of free destination in long-term liquefied natural gas supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yepes Rodriguez, Ramon

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a real option model for the valuation of destination flexibility in long-term LNG supplies. Stochastic price dynamics in the different markets is modelled through geometric Brownian motion processes. Mean reversion is considered as well as correlation between markets, but instead of the usual correlation in return shocks, a price convergence term is introduced representing the arbitrage streams between markets. Model parameters are estimated from market data on LNG prices by maximum log-likelihood. The goodness of the fit for the proposed model is tested as well as for two alternative models. Confidence intervals for the parameters are given. Results for the model are calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. Frequency distributions for the main results are plotted. The effect of the main parameters of the model is studied (i.e. price volatilities, price convergence, initial prices in the markets, mean reversion, extra transportation costs, number of alternative markets). The value of destination flexibility is found to be an important share of the value of LNG

  18. Flexibility valuation in the Brazilian power system: A real options approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marreco, Juliana de Moraes; Carpio, Lucio Guido Tapia

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a valuation study of operational flexibility in the complex Brazilian Power System. Thermopower plants represent operational flexibility for the national system operator provided they can be dispatched in dry periods to supply part of the load when reservoir waters are too low. Deficit costs can be avoided as a result. We have adopted a real options approach to calculate the fair value of a financial subsidy to be paid to thermal generators for their availability to the system. A financial subsidy is mandatory for their economic feasibility and, therefore, for increased thermopower capacity in the Brazilian Power System. This is why this policy is currently being studied by Brazil's federal government. In order to illustrate our modeling we have run the model for the southeast subsystem. We found a flexibility value of US$4.52 billion, which represents US$497/MW per year. This means that a 100 MW thermopower plant should receive US$49,700 for each year of its economic lifetime as a fair premium incentive to investments

  19. Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Locatelli, G. [Univ. of Lincoln, Lincoln School of Engineering, Brayford Pool, Lincoln LN6 7TS (United Kingdom); Mancini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milano (Italy); Ruiz, F.; Solana, P. [Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Dep. de Ingenieria de Organizacion, Administracion de Empresas y Estadistica, C/ Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2, 28006-Madrid (Spain)

    2012-07-01

    According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real option theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)

  20. An entry and exit model on the energy-saving investment strategy with real options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Tyrone T.; Huang, S.-L.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an improved decision model based on the real options approach presented by for the firms that have not yet established energy-saving equipment under the entry and exit strategies. Furthermore, the proposed model takes account of the inevitable equipment renewal and the occurrence of unexpected events under the Poisson jump process. The timing for terminating an investment when continuous operations of that business are unprofitable is also explored to realize the optimal timing of implementing the energy-saving strategy. The future discounted benefit B follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. A numerical analysis is followed by a sensitivity study of various parameters to better realize their impacts on the entry and exit thresholds. The results show that for the jump case, the higher probability of occurrence of unfavorable events will result in a higher entry threshold and lower exit threshold. Investors are forced to request higher benefit thresholds to cover the higher probability of losses brought by unfavorable events.

  1. Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.; Ruiz, F.; Solana, P.

    2012-01-01

    According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real option theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)

  2. A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jácome, A.R.; Garrido, A.

    2017-01-01

    The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H) and exit (L) prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

  3. What makes and what does not make a real option? A study of equity shares in international joint ventures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cuypers, I.R.P.; Martin, Xavier

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the boundaries of real options logic, with an application to joint ventures (JVs). We distinguish between forms of uncertainty that are resolved endogenously and those that are resolved exogenously, and theorize that only exogenous uncertainty will have the impact predicted by

  4. The Interaction between Real Options and Financial Hedging: An Empirical Study of Danish Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    The interaction between real options and financial hedging is analyzed empirically. A majority of Danish non-financial companies either (1) chooses at times not to hedge an exchange rate operating exposure financially due to the possibility of the company to react to changes in exchange rates...

  5.  Euro Membership as a Real Option Trigger: An Empirical Study of EU15 Manufacturing Firms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    ) to exercise real options such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch suppliers, and to generally expand in the Euro-area. The results are robust after controlling for the size of the firms and their sales in the Euro-area. The results go beyond what...

  6. Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuss, Sabine; Szolgayova, Jana

    2010-01-01

    Electricity generation is an important source of total CO 2 emissions, which in turn have been found to relate to an acceleration of global warming. Given that many OECD countries have to replace substantial portions of their electricity-generating capacity over the next 10-20 years, investment decisions today will determine the CO 2 -intensity of the future energy mix. But by what type of power plants will old (mostly fossil-fuel-fired) capacity be replaced? Given that modern, less carbon-intensive technologies are still expensive but can be expected to undergo improvements due to technical change in the near future, they may become more attractive, especially if fossil fuel price volatility makes traditional technologies more risky. At the same time, technological progress is an inherently uncertain process itself. In this paper, we use a real options model with stochastic technical change and stochastic fossil fuel prices in order to investigate their impact on replacement investment decisions in the electricity sector. We find that the uncertainty associated with the technological progress of renewable energy technologies leads to a postponement of investment. Even the simultaneous inclusion of stochastic fossil fuel prices in the same model does not make renewable energy competitive compared to fossil-fuel-fired technology in the short run based on the data used. This implies that policymakers have to intervene if renewable energy is supposed to get diffused more quickly. Otherwise, old fossil-fuel-fired equipment will be refurbished or replaced by fossil-fuel-fired capacity again, which enforces the lock-in of the current system into unsustainable electricity generation. (author)

  7. What is the best way to enter Florida's real estate market in today's economy? : This may serve as a simple guide which offers options for a startup real estate company to enter any real estate market

    OpenAIRE

    Bryan, Paul

    2011-01-01

    P&I International real estate (PIIRE for short) is a real estate company which left the Florida real estate market in 2006. PIIRE is now seeking the best method to re-enter the Florida’s real estate market within the near future. The owners are seeking the best method to re-establish their real estate business in Florida. At this point the location in Florida has not yet been determined. The determining factors include financing options, business type entry mode, and governmental issues. ...

  8. “Let’s Wait and See!” The Real Option to Switch as a Value Component of Customer Relationships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Henseler, J.; Roemer, E.

    2013-01-01

    We suggest that a customer’s option to switch suppliers, and to wait and see before switching, adds to customer value in uncertain markets, and affects the customer’s switching behavior. We use a real options model to examine the value of this option and conduct sensitivity analyses based on data

  9. “Let’s Wait and See!” – The Real Option to Switch as a New Element of Customer Value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Henseler, Jörg; Roemer, Ellen

    2013-01-01

    We suggest that a customer’s option to switch suppliers, and to wait and see before switching, adds to customer value in uncertain markets, and affects the customer’s switching behavior. We use a real options model to examine the value of this option and conduct sensitivity analyses based on data

  10. Integrated weed management for sustainable rice production: concepts, perspectives and options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amartalingam Rajan

    2002-01-01

    Weed management has always been in some way integrated with cultural and biological methods, probably occurring more fortuitously than purposefully. Experience has shown that repeated use of any weed control technique especially in monocultures production systems results in rapid emergence of weeds more adapted to the new practice. In intensive high input farming systems, heavy selection pressure for herbicide tolerant weeds and the environmental impacts of these inputs are important tissues that require a good understanding of agroecosystem for successful integration of available options. Rice culture, in particular flooded rice culture has always employed integration through an evolution of management practices over the generations. However, a vast majority office farmers in Asia have yet to achieve the high returns realised by farmers elsewhere, where a near optimum combination of high inputs are being effectively integrated for maximum productivity. In addition to technological and management limitations, farmers in developing countries are faced with social, economic and policy constraints. On the other hand, farmers who had achieved considerable increases in productivity through labour replacing technologies, in particular direct seeding with the aid of herbicides, are now faced with issues related to environmental concerns due to high levels of these inputs. The issues facing weed scientists and farmers alike in managing weeds effectively and in a manner to ensure sustainability have become more challenging than ever before. In the last two decades, no issue has been discussed so. intensively as Sustainable Farming, Sustainable Agriculture or Alternative Agriculture within the broader global concept of Sustainable Development. To address these challenges a clear perspective of sustainable farming is essential. This paper addresses these concepts, perspectives and options for choices in weed management for sustainable rice production. (Author)

  11. EFFECT OF REVENUE INSURANCE ON ENTRY AND EXIT DECISIONS IN TABLE GRAPE PRODUCTION: A REAL OPTION APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Seo, Sangtaek; Salin, Victoria; Mitchell, Paul D.; Leatham, David J.

    2004-01-01

    This study determines the entry and exit thresholds of table grape farming with irreversible investment under uncertainty. Real option approach is adopted to consider the investment and management flexibility. Also revenue insurance is introduced to consider the effect of the risk management programs on the entry and exit thresholds. Results show that revenue insurance increases the entry and exit thresholds by 1% and 4%, respectively, thus discouraging new investment and current farming, as ...

  12. Integrated Portfolio Analysis: Return on Investment and Real Options Analysis of Intelligence Information Systems (Cryptologic Carry On Program)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-30

    14 IV. Proof-of-Concept: USS Readiness Case Study 16 A. Background 17 B. Applying KVA Methodology 19 C. KVA Results 20 D. Real Options Analysis 23...technology assets. • Quantifying intangible human capital assets (i.e., training, skills, knowledge). The average large company spends the equivalent of...Portfolios/Motorola, Unilever • IT Infrastructure/Credit Suisse • Electricity/Peaker-Plants • Acquisitions/Seagate • Contracts/Syngenta, GM Although

  13. The Virtual and the Real in Planning and Urban Design: Perspectives, Practices and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yamu, Claudia; Poplin, Alenka; Devisch, Oswald; de Roo, Gert

    2018-01-01

    The Virtual and the Real: Perspectives, Practices and Applications for the Built Environment explores the merging relationship between physical and virtual spaces in planning and urban design. Technological advances such as smart sensors, interactive screens, locative media and evolving computation

  14. A Real Options Approach to Bankruptcy Costs: Evidence from Failed Commercial Banks During the 1990s

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph R. Mason

    2005-01-01

    Literature to date has identified three main aspects of liquidation time: firm size, asset specificity, and industry concentration. The present paper unifies the theory behind these three aspects of bankruptcy costs by treating them as components of a broader option valuation problem faced by the liquidating trustee. In the options valuation framework, at time t the trustee may choose to 1) liquidate at current asset values and incur a known loss, or 2) hold until the next period t+1 at a pos...

  15. EL MÉTODO DE DIFERENCIAS FINITAS EN EVALUACIÓN DE OPCIONES REALES THE FINITE DIFFERENCE METHOD IN REAL OPTIONS VALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastián Otero G

    2008-06-01

    representa su capacidad de incorporar en el análisis el valor de la flexibilidad operativa del proyecto.In the past few years, real options, an extension of financial derivatives, have arisen as an alternative to traditional valuation methods, such as net present value (NPV. The key attribute of real options is that they take into consideration the uncertainty and flexibility involved in investment valuation. This article provides an overview of the finite difference method, by presenting an application to the real options valuation. The empirical section of the article, which makes use of the implicit finite difference method (IFD, analyzes the options of waiting, abandoning, contracting, expanding and switching, by valuing all the options involved and their possible combinations. The results are compared with those of the NPV method and the binomial tree with a logarithmic transformation (BTLT. Both methods (IFD and BTLT yield similar results, being both greater than those provided by the NPV. This difference comes to no surprise as it represents the value of the flexibility associated to an investment opportunity.

  16. Making sense of future uncertainties using real options and scenario planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Reedt Dortland, Maartje; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

    2014-01-01

    Healthcare across the world is facing many uncertainties. In Dutch healthcare, a recent policy change is forcing health organizations to deal more efficiently with their real estate, and this increases the need for real estate strategies that are more flexible. In order to support managers in

  17. Real Options Valuation of U.S. Federal Renewable Energy Research,Development, Demonstration, and Deployment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2005-03-01

    Benefits analysis of US Federal government funded research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) programs for renewable energy (RE) technology improvement typically employs a deterministic forecast of the cost and performance of renewable and nonrenewable fuels. The benefits estimate for a program derives from the difference between two forecasts, with and without the RD3 in place. The deficiencies of the current approach are threefold: (1) it does not consider uncertainty in the cost of non-renewable energy (NRE), and the option or insurance value of deploying RE if and when NRE costs rise; (2) it does not consider the ability of the RD3 manager to adjust the RD3 effort to suit the evolving state of the world, and the option value of this flexibility; and (3) it does not consider the underlying technical risk associated with RD3, and the impact of that risk on the programs optimal level of RD3 effort. In this paper, a rudimentary approach to determining the option value of publicly funded RE RD3 is developed. The approach seeks to tackle the first deficiency noted above by providing an estimate of the options benefit of an RE RD3 program in a future with uncertain NRE costs.While limited by severe assumptions, a computable lattice of options values reveals the economic intuition underlying the decision-making process. An illustrative example indicates how options expose both the insurance and timing values inherent in a simplified RE RD3 program that coarsely approximates the aggregation of current Federal RE RD3.This paper also discusses the severe limitations of this initial approach, and identifies needed model improvements before the approach can adequately respond to the RE RD3 analysis challenge.

  18. ARC-VM: An architecture real options complexity-based valuation methodology for military systems-of-systems acquisitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domercant, Jean Charles

    The combination of today's national security environment and mandated acquisition policies makes it necessary for military systems to interoperate with each other to greater degrees. This growing interdependency results in complex Systems-of-Systems (SoS) that only continue to grow in complexity to meet evolving capability needs. Thus, timely and affordable acquisition becomes more difficult, especially in the face of mounting budgetary pressures. To counter this, architecting principles must be applied to SoS design. The research objective is to develop an Architecture Real Options Complexity-Based Valuation Methodology (ARC-VM) suitable for acquisition-level decision making, where there is a stated desire for more informed tradeoffs between cost, schedule, and performance during the early phases of design. First, a framework is introduced to measure architecture complexity as it directly relates to military SoS. Development of the framework draws upon a diverse set of disciplines, including Complexity Science, software architecting, measurement theory, and utility theory. Next, a Real Options based valuation strategy is developed using techniques established for financial stock options that have recently been adapted for use in business and engineering decisions. The derived complexity measure provides architects with an objective measure of complexity that focuses on relevant complex system attributes. These attributes are related to the organization and distribution of SoS functionality and the sharing and processing of resources. The use of Real Options provides the necessary conceptual and visual framework to quantifiably and traceably combine measured architecture complexity, time-valued performance levels, as well as programmatic risks and uncertainties. An example suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) capability demonstrates the development and usefulness of the resulting architecture complexity & Real Options based valuation methodology. Different

  19. Ranking of options of real estate use by expert assessments mathematical processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepikhina, O. Yu; Skachkova, M. E.; Mihaelyan, T. A.

    2018-05-01

    The article is devoted to the development of the real estate assessment concept. In conditions of multivariate using of the real estate method based on calculating, the integral indicator of each variant’s efficiency is proposed. In order to calculate weights of criteria of the efficiency expert method, Analytic hierarchy process and its mathematical support are used. The method allows fulfilling ranking of alternative types of real estate use in dependence of their efficiency. The method was applied for one of the land parcels located on Primorsky district in Saint Petersburg.

  20. Pricing and simulation for real estate index options: Radial basis point interpolation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Pu; Zou, Dong; Wang, Jiayue

    2018-06-01

    This study employs the meshfree radial basis point interpolation (RBPI) for pricing real estate derivatives contingent on real estate index. This method combines radial and polynomial basis functions, which can guarantee the interpolation scheme with Kronecker property and effectively improve accuracy. An exponential change of variables, a mesh refinement algorithm and the Richardson extrapolation are employed in this study to implement the RBPI. Numerical results are presented to examine the computational efficiency and accuracy of our method.

  1. Stochastic control and real options valuation of thermal storage-enabled demand response from flexible district energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitapbayev, Yerkin; Moriarty, John; Mancarella, Pierluigi

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We calculate the real option value of flexibility from CHP-thermal storage. • Stochastic optimal feedback control problem is solved under uncertain market prices. • Efficient real-time numerical solutions combine simulation, regression and recursion. • Clear, interpretable feedback control maps are produced for each hour of the day. • We give a realistic UK case study using projected market gas and electricity prices. - Abstract: In district energy systems powered by Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants, thermal storage can significantly increase CHP flexibility to respond to real time market signals and therefore improve the business case of such demand response schemes in a Smart Grid environment. However, main challenges remain as to what is the optimal way to control inter-temporal storage operation in the presence of uncertain market prices, and then how to value the investment into storage as flexibility enabler. In this outlook, the aim of this paper is to propose a model for optimal and dynamic control and long term valuation of CHP-thermal storage in the presence of uncertain market prices. The proposed model is formulated as a stochastic control problem and numerically solved through Least Squares Monte Carlo regression analysis, with integrated investment and operational timescale analysis equivalent to real options valuation models encountered in finance. Outputs are represented by clear and interpretable feedback control strategy maps for each hour of the day, thus suitable for real time demand response under uncertainty. Numerical applications to a realistic UK case study with projected market gas and electricity prices exemplify the proposed approach and quantify the robustness of the selected storage solutions

  2. Age Differences in Consumer Decision Making under Option Framing: From the Motivation Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Peng, Huamao; Xia, Shiyong; Ruan, Fanglin; Pu, Bingyan

    2016-01-01

    Option framing effect is the phenomena that participants often accept more options when they are asked to delete undesired options from a full model (subtractive framing) than they do when they are instructed to add desired options to a base model (additive framing). Whether the same effect exists in different age groups is less well known. To explore the roles of age and purchase motivations on the option framing effect for automobiles purchases, this study adopted a 3 (age group: younger, m...

  3. Incorporation of Outcome-Based Contract Requirements in a Real Options Approach for Maintenance Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    corrective maintenance (which increases as the RUL is used up), while maximizing the revenue earned during the RUL (which increases as the RUL is used up...running the system to failure, then performing corrective maintenance The value from exercising the option is the sum of the cumulative revenue loss...and the avoided corrective maintenance cost. The cumulative revenue loss is what the system would earn between the predictive maintenance event and

  4. Embedded and real time system development a software engineering perspective concepts, methods and principles

    CERN Document Server

    Saeed, Saqib; Darwish, Ashraf; Abraham, Ajith

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays embedded and real-time systems contain complex software. The complexity of embedded systems is increasing, and the amount and variety of software in the embedded products are growing. This creates a big challenge for embedded and real-time software development processes and there is a need to develop separate metrics and benchmarks. “Embedded and Real Time System Development: A Software Engineering Perspective: Concepts, Methods and Principles” presents practical as well as conceptual knowledge of the latest tools, techniques and methodologies of embedded software engineering and real-time systems. Each chapter includes an in-depth investigation regarding the actual or potential role of software engineering tools in the context of the embedded system and real-time system. The book presents state-of-the art and future perspectives with industry experts, researchers, and academicians sharing ideas and experiences including surrounding frontier technologies, breakthroughs, innovative solutions and...

  5. Real-time perspective correction in video stream

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glagolev Vladislav

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes an algorithm used for software perspective correction. The algorithm uses the camera’s orientation angles and transforms the coordinates of pixels on a source image to coordinates on a virtual image form the camera whose focal plane is perpendicular to the gravity vector. This algorithm can be used as a low-cost replacement of a gyrostabilazer in specific applications that restrict using movable parts or heavy and pricey equipment.

  6. Capacity payment impact on gas-fired generation investments under rising renewable feed-in — A real options analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hach, Daniel; Spinler, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We assess the effect of capacity payments on investments in gas-fired power plants in the presence of different degrees of renewable energy technology (RET) penetration. Low variable cost renewables increasingly make investments in gas-fired generation unprofitable. At the same time, growing feed-in from intermittent RETs amplifies fluctuations in power generation, thus entailing the need for flexible buffer capacity—currently mostly gas-fired power plants. A real options approach is applied to evaluate investment decisions and timing of a single investor in gas-fired power generation. We investigate the necessity and effectiveness of capacity payments. Our model incorporates multiple uncertainties and assesses the effect of capacity payments under different degrees of RET penetration. In a numerical study, we implement stochastic processes for peak-load electricity prices and natural gas prices. We find that capacity payments are an effective measure to promote new gas-fired generation projects. Especially in times of high renewable feed-in, capacity payments are required to incentivize peak-load investments. - Highlights: • We assess capacity payments under the specific focus of the influence of different degrees of renewable feed-in. • We use a real options approach to analyze investment decision and timing. • Our model reflects stochastic gas prices and stochastic electricity prices. • The case study shows the value of capacity payments to investors especially under high renewable feed-in.

  7. The RealGas and RealGasH2O options of the TOUGH+ code for the simulation of coupled fluid and heat flow in tight/shale gas systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    We developed two new EOS additions to the TOUGH+ family of codes, the RealGasH2O and RealGas. The RealGasH2O EOS option describes the non-isothermal two-phase flow of water and a real gas mixture in gas reservoirs, with a particular focus in ultra-tight (such as tight-sand and sh...

  8. The effects of meshed offshore grids on offshore wind investment – a real options analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schröder, Sascha Thorsten; Kitzing, Lena

    2012-01-01

    Offshore wind farms in future meshed offshore grids could be subject to different regulatory regimes. Feed-in tariffs would absorb market risk from wind farm operators, whereas price premium mechanisms leave operators exposed to market price signals. In this case, it plays a decisive role which...... price applies to a node in an offshore grid. The offshore node will either be integrated into any of the neighbouring markets, with access to the respective maximum price, or be subject to separate nodal pricing. We investigate the different regulatory regimes for connections to one to four countries...... based on a stochastic model capturing uncertainties in prices and line failures. The stochastic analysis shows that in case the wind park is granted access to the respective maximum price, there is a significant option value connected to the operational flexibility of accessing several markets: The wind...

  9. The effects of meshed offshore grids on offshore wind investment – a real options analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schröder, Sascha Thorsten; Kitzing, Lena

    2012-01-01

    based on a stochastic model capturing uncertainties in prices and line failures. The stochastic analysis shows that in case the wind park is granted access to the respective maximum price, there is a significant option value connected to the operational flexibility of accessing several markets: The wind......Offshore wind farms in future meshed offshore grids could be subject to different regulatory regimes. Feed-in tariffs would absorb market risk from wind farm operators, whereas price premium mechanisms leave operators exposed to market price signals. In this case, it plays a decisive role which...... price applies to a node in an offshore grid. The offshore node will either be integrated into any of the neighbouring markets, with access to the respective maximum price, or be subject to separate nodal pricing. We investigate the different regulatory regimes for connections to one to four countries...

  10. Comparison of real development levels of countries: Genesis and perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prekajac Zora

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Comparison of levels of development among countries is usually done by reducing values in national currencies with a common denominator, using the official exchange rate. Because of its unreality, the values calculated in this way do not illustrate real relations between compared countries. That brings about the launching of the UN International Comparison Project (latter Programme with two fold aims: developing a method for international comparison of real domestic product which could be applied to a number of very heterogeneous countries, and the comparison of growing number of very different countries. Until now six phases of comparisons are finished. Taking into consideration problems that appeared in the realization of the VI ICP phase as well as quality improvement proposals, a decision has been made to launch a new, global round for 2003-2006. Comparison will cover 150 countries (the widest coverage ever. This will give global character to the comparison, which was the end cause of the ICP.

  11. Age Differences in Consumer Decision Making under Option Framing: From the Motivation Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huamao Peng

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Option framing effect is the phenomena that participants often accept more options when they are asked to delete undesired options from a full model (subtractive framing than they do when they are instructed to add desired options to a base model (additive framing. Whether the same effect exists in different age groups is less well known. To explore the roles of age and purchase motivations on the option framing effect for automobiles purchases, this study adopted a 3(age group: younger, middle-aged, vs. older ×2(option framing: additive vs. subtractive ×2(focus condition: information vs. emotion mixed design. To manipulate purchase motivations, participants in the three age groups were instructed to focus on the ratio of utility and price of options (information-focus or the extent of pleasure induced by the options (emotion-focus when they made purchase decisions in two framing conditions. The results revealed similar option framing effect across all age groups in the information-focus condition regarding the total price paid for accepted options. In contrast, the framing effect was not found in the emotion-focus condition. In addition, older adults accepted more options and an overall higher price than younger and middle-aged adults in both focus conditions. This difference was more obvious in the emotion-focus condition than in the information-focus condition. Moreover, both the number of accepted options and the total accepted price of the younger group in the information-focus condition were higher than those in the emotion-focus condition, whereas the older and middle-aged groups accepted same number of options and price between two focus conditions. These results imply that purchase motivation is a moderator of the option framing effect and age characteristics linked with motivations must be considered in sales.

  12. Age Differences in Consumer Decision Making under Option Framing: From the Motivation Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Huamao; Xia, Shiyong; Ruan, Fanglin; Pu, Bingyan

    2016-01-01

    Option framing effect is the phenomena that participants often accept more options when they are asked to delete undesired options from a full model (subtractive framing) than they do when they are instructed to add desired options to a base model (additive framing). Whether the same effect exists in different age groups is less well known. To explore the roles of age and purchase motivations on the option framing effect for automobiles purchases, this study adopted a 3 (age group: younger, middle-aged, vs. older) × 2 (option framing: additive vs. subtractive) × 2 (focus condition: information vs. emotion) mixed design. To manipulate purchase motivations, participants in the three age groups were instructed to focus on the ratio of utility and price of options (information-focus) or the extent of pleasure induced by the options (emotion-focus) when they made purchase decisions in two framing conditions. The results revealed similar option framing effect across all age groups in the information-focus condition regarding the total price paid for accepted options. In contrast, the framing effect was not found in the emotion-focus condition. In addition, older adults accepted more options and an overall higher price than younger and middle-aged adults in both focus conditions. This difference was more obvious in the emotion-focus condition than in the information-focus condition. Moreover, both the number of accepted options and the total accepted price of the younger group in the information-focus condition were higher than those in the emotion-focus condition, whereas the older and middle-aged groups accepted same number of options and price between two focus conditions. These results imply that purchase motivation is a moderator of the option framing effect and age characteristics linked with motivations must be considered in sales.

  13. Supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mulan Xiaofeng

    My dissertation concentrates on several aspects of supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry, including gas pipeline transportations, ocean LNG shipping logistics, and downstream storage. Chapter 1 briefly introduces the natural gas and LNG industries, and the topics studied in this thesis. Chapter 2 studies how to value U.S. natural gas pipeline network transport contracts as real options. It is common for natural gas shippers to value and manage contracts by simple adaptations of financial spread option formulas that do not fully account for the implications of the capacity limits and the network structure that distinguish these contracts. In contrast, we show that these operational features can be fully captured and integrated with financial considerations in a fairly easy and managerially significant manner by a model that combines linear programming and simulation. We derive pathwise estimators for the so called deltas and structurally characterize them. We interpret them in a novel fashion as discounted expectations, under a specific weighing distribution, of the amounts of natural gas to be procured/marketed when optimally using pipeline capacity. Based on the actual prices of traded natural gas futures and basis swaps, we show that an enhanced version of the common approach employed in practice can significantly underestimate the true value of natural gas pipeline network capacity. Our model also exhibits promising financial (delta) hedging performance. Thus, this model emerges as an easy to use and useful tool that natural gas shippers can employ to support their valuation and delta hedging decisions concerning natural gas pipeline network transport capacity contracts. Moreover, the insights that follow from our data analysis have broader significance and implications in terms of the management of real options beyond our specific application. Motivated by current developments

  14. Screening options for Down syndrome: how women choose in real clinical setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, T K; Lai, F K; Leung, W C; Lau, W L; Ng, L S; Wong, W C; Tam, S S; Yee, Y C; Choi, H; Lam, H S W; Sham, A S Y; Tang, L C H; Chin, R K H

    2009-09-01

    To study pregnant women's preference among various screening options for Down syndrome (DS) in routine clinical setting, and its potential association with women's demographic characteristics. Women aged 35 years and older carrying singleton pregnancy were offered a variety of screening tests for DS before 14 weeks of gestation. Their preference was confirmed by the test they actually underwent. The association between women's choice of test and a number of demographic characteristics was studied using multinomial regression. Among 1967 eligible women, 619 opted for first-trimester screening test (FTS), 924 for partial integrated test (PIT), and 424 for full integrated test (FIT). Nulliparous women and working mothers were more likely to choose FTS and FIT. Women with history of subfertility were more likely to choose FIT. Women with family history of chromosomal abnormalities were more likely to choose FTS. The choice of screening test could be predicted for 49.9% of women using four demographic characteristics. Among older women of predominantly Chinese ethnicity, integrated test is a favorite alternative to FTS. Their choice of DS screening test can be predicted by their obstetric and socioeconomic characteristics. Many women show willingness to pay for a test with a lower false-positive rate.

  15. Method for producing three-dimensional real image using radiographic perspective views of an object

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingson, W.A.; Read, A.A.

    1976-01-01

    A sequence of separate radiographs may be made by indexing a radiation source along a known path relative to the object under study. Thus, each radiograph contains information from a different perspective. A holographically-recorded image is then made from each radiographic perspective by exact re-tracing of the rays through each radiographic perspective such that the re-tracing duplicates the geometry under which it was originally prepared. The holographically-stored images are simultaneously illuminated with the conjugate of the reference beam used in the original recordings. The result is the generation of a three-dimensional real image of the object such that a light-sensitive device can be moved to veiw the real image along any desired surface with the optical information in all other surfaces greatly suppressed. 4 claims, 5 drawing figures

  16. Using expanded real options analysis to evaluate capacity expansion decisions under uncertainty in the construction material industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Momani, Amer Mohammad

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Capacity expansion generally requires large capital expenditure on illiquid assets. Therefore, decisions to enlarge capacity must support the organisation’s strategic objectives and provide valuable input for the budgeting process. This paper applies an expanded form of Real Options Analysis (ROA to generate and evaluate capacity expansion strategies under uncertainty in the construction material industry. ROA is applied to different expansion strategies associated with different demand scenarios. Evaluating a wider variety of strategies can reduce risk and sponsor decisions that maximise the firm’s value. The case study shows that the execution of a lead expansion strategy with 10-year intervals under a 50 per cent demand satisfaction scenario produces superior results.

  17. Accounting Theory: An Ethical Perspective of Real Life Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shivneil Kumar Raj

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Decisions are made daily in businesses and individuals do encounter situations where they are faced with ethical issues. The subject is how one evaluates whether an act is ethical or unethical. This research article discusses real life ethical dilemmas that could be faced in accounting or business environment and applicability of various theories of ethics that were taught in accounting theory course in the undergraduate accounting program. The researcher employs a number of case studies highlighting the stories related to ethics that have been experienced in the past working life. Teleological and deontological theories are being used to explain how one could identify that a particular act is ethical or unethical. The work of accountants requires them to maintain high level of ethics to ensure integrity of the profession.

  18. Application of the modified Tobin's q to an uncertain energy-saving project with the real options concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Tyrone T.; Huang, Shio-Ling

    2011-01-01

    This paper is to develop a modified Tobin's q evaluation method which successfully combines the evaluation criteria of the traditional Tobin's q and the real options. This study provides flexible thinking for decision making criteria. That is, it clearly provides decision-makers with a reference in choosing enter or exit strategies, such as quantitative indicators references. The proposed model introduces two variables stochastic process in continuous time and explores the impact of the occurrence of unexpected events on the project value, so that, it can more authentically response to the project value. The studied issue deals with the firms that have not established energy-saving equipment yet. It attempts to figure out the optimal timing to adopt an energy-saving investment project when it is beneficial and the optimal timing to terminate it when the continuous operation of that business is unprofitable. The future discounted benefit-cost ratio, Q, follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. Except for the evaluation of energy-saving equipment investment project, the proposed model can be applied to other related project evaluation issues, such as energy-saving, CO 2 emission reduction, or general investment projects. - Research highlights: → Develops an approach which combines the traditional Tobin's q and the real options. → Applies to general energy-saving project or other investment projects. → Can more authentically response to the project value with strategic entry and exit. → Provides flexible thinking for decision making criteria via modified Tobin's q model. → Reduces the model complexity and increases the flexibility in practice application.

  19. A real option-based model to valuate CDM projects under uncertain energy policies for emission trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Taeil; Kim, Changyoon; Kim, Hyoungkwan

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A real option-based model for the valuation of CDM projects is proposed. • This study investigates the impact of energy policies on the value of CDM projects. • Level of target emission and its schedule should be carefully designed. • Government subsidy facilitates the implementation of CDM projects. • Period for free emission allowance prevents promoting CDM projects. - Abstract: Emission trading has been considered a primary policy tool for emission reduction. Governments establish national targets for emission reduction and assign emission reduction goals to private entities to accomplish the targets. To attain the goal, private entities should perform offset projects that can produce emission credits or buy emission credits from the market. However, it is not easy for private entities to decide to implement the projects because energy policies associated with emission trading keep changing; thus, the future benefits of the offset projects are quite uncertain. This study presents a real option-based model to investigate how uncertain energy policies affect the financial viability of an offset project. A case study showed that the establishment of a target emission was attractive to the government because it could make the CDM project financially viable with a small amount of government subsidy. In addition, the level of the government subsidy could determine the investment timing for the CDM project. In this context, governments should be cautious in designing energy policies, because even the same energy policies could have different impacts on private entities. Overall, this study is expected to assist private entities in establishing proper investment strategies for CDM projects under uncertain energy policies

  20. Determining the Real Causes of Financial Crisis in Islamic Economic Perspective: ANP Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    . Ascarya

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective – The purpose of this study is to determine the real causes of financial crisis from Islamic economic perspective.Methods - This study applies Analytic Network Process (ANP to determine the real causes of financial crisis from Islamic economic perspective to be able to formulate the real solutions to end financial crisis.Results - The ANP results show that the real causes of financial crisis from Islamic economic perspective are Social Instability (EXTERNAL FACTOR, Speculation (MISBEHAVIOR, Ineffective Fiscal System (UNSUSTAINABLE FISCAL SYSTEM, Hedonism (MISBEHAVIOR, Fractional Reserve Banking System (UNSTABLE MONETARY SYSTEM, Political Instability (EXTERNAL FACTOR, Corruption (POOR GOVERNANCE, Interest Rate (UNSTABLE MONETARY SYSTEM, Fiat Money (UNSTABLE MONETARY SYSTEM, and the Wrong Man in the Wrong Place (POOR GOVERNANCE. These main real causes should be removed gradually in order to systematically and gradually improve the stability of financial system so that financial crisis will not reappear again and again in the future.Conclusions - Financial crisis would not happen under Islamic economic system if all Allah’s laws in financial dealings were followed. Financial crisis in conventional economic system could be prevented or lessened by gradually adopting Islamic economic and finance laws and regulations, partly or fully, especially the main pillars of Islamic financial system, namely the prohibition of ribā (usury or interest, prohibition of maysir (gambling and game of chance or speculation and prohibition of gharar (excessive uncertainty, in their many forms.

  1. Real option valuation of a decremental regulation service provided by electricity storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabó, Dávid Zoltán; Martyr, Randall

    2017-08-13

    This paper is a quantitative study of a reserve contract for real-time balancing of a power system. Under this contract, the owner of a storage device, such as a battery, helps smooth fluctuations in electricity demand and supply by using the device to increase electricity consumption. The battery owner must be able to provide immediate physical cover, and should therefore have sufficient storage available in the battery before entering the contract. Accordingly, the following problem can be formulated for the battery owner: determine the optimal time to enter the contract and, if necessary, the optimal time to discharge electricity before entering the contract. This problem is formulated as one of optimal stopping, and is solved explicitly in terms of the model parameters and instantaneous values of the power system imbalance. The optimal operational strategies thus obtained ensure that the battery owner has positive expected economic profit from the contract. Furthermore, they provide explicit conditions under which the optimal discharge time is consistent with the overall objective of power system balancing. This paper also carries out a preliminary investigation of the 'lifetime value' aggregated from an infinite sequence of these balancing reserve contracts. This lifetime value, which can be viewed as a single project valuation of the battery, is shown to be positive and bounded. Therefore, in the long run such reserve contracts can be beneficial to commercial operators of electricity storage, while reducing some of the financial and operational risks in power system balancing.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy management: flexibility, risk and optimization'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  2. Evaluation of food waste disposal options by LCC analysis from the perspective of global warming: Jungnang case, South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Mi-Hyung; Song, Yul-Eum; Song, Han-Byul; Kim, Jung-Wk; Hwang, Sun-Jin

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Various food waste disposal options were evaluated from the perspective of global warming. → Costs of the options were compared by the methodology of life cycle assessment and life cycle cost analysis. → Carbon price and valuable by-products were used for analyzing environmental credits. → The benefit-cost ratio of wet feeding scenario was the highest. - Abstract: The costs associated with eight food waste disposal options, dry feeding, wet feeding, composting, anaerobic digestion, co-digestion with sewage sludge, food waste disposer, incineration, and landfilling, were evaluated in the perspective of global warming and energy and/or resource recovery. An expanded system boundary was employed to compare by-products. Life cycle cost was analyzed through the entire disposal process, which included discharge, separate collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal stages, all of which were included in the system boundary. Costs and benefits were estimated by an avoided impact. Environmental benefits of each system per 1 tonne of food waste management were estimated using carbon prices resulting from CO 2 reduction by avoided impact, as well as the prices of by-products such as animal feed, compost, and electricity. We found that the cost of landfilling was the lowest, followed by co-digestion. The benefits of wet feeding systems were the highest and landfilling the lowest.

  3. Real-time operations intelligence from the user perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kharbat, Fayez [Saudi Aramco, Dhahran (Saudi Arabia)

    2004-07-01

    Running a refinery or a chemical plant is a complex business. Planning and scheduling, process control and maintenance require dedicated, multifaceted solutions necessitating highly trained and experienced users. The inevitable system and user specialization results in the proliferation of disparate data sources, incoherent information, inconsistent decisions and the failure to realize corporate objectives - until today. IndX Software Corporation is the de facto market-leading provider of operations intelligence solutions. IndX's XHQ{sup TM} Real-time Operations Intelligence solutions have been selected by many of the world's major corporations in their quest for Operational Excellence and IndX is currently engaged in more than 50 maximizedROI{sup TM} deployments around the world. This paper describes the thinking and technology behind XHQ and the implementation methodology typically employed in deploying an XHQ solution enterprise-wide. This paper will also provide examples of the benefits that users have realized from their implementation of XHQ. (author)

  4. Feasibility analysis of the development of an oil field: a real options approach in a production sharing agreement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Nunes Fonseca

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – The aim of this research is to analyze the feasibility of developing a real oil field in Africa under a production sharing agreement, through the application of the real options theory. Design/methodology/approach – The research was conducted according to the principles of modeling and simulation, based on a structure that consists of three phases, in order to facilitate project feasibility analysis. Findings – Initially, according to the traditional method, we suggest that the decision-maker does not invest in the development of the field. However, by incorporating uncertainty into the decision-making process, other results were obtained. Although reduced, we attested that there is a likelihood of feasibility. Next, by using the binomial model to represent the process of oil barrel price diffusion, the asset value is calculated considering the flexibility of delaying the development of the field. Originality/value – The results show that, if a manager has the right to invest in the future and wait for better oil prices, postponing the development of an oil field adds value to his assets. The proposed method is a contribution that offers subsidies to improve decisionmaking processes to evaluate investments.

  5. Enfoque de opciones reales para la valoración financiera de marcas Real Options Approach to Financial Valuation of Brands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yessica González Londoño

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Los activos intangibles, especialmente las marcas, son parte fundamental del valor de mercado de las compañías, pues representan su ventaja competitiva; sin embargo, la Contabilidad y las Finanzas se enfrentan ante un reto difícil al momento de valorarlos. Los métodos de medición de intangibles en la literatura revisada se caracterizan por ser limitados y subjetivos, e incluso presentan algunos errores conceptuales, encontrándose su utilidad principal en el campo de la gestión. Este artículo propone una metodología para la valoración financiera de marcas a partir de una extensión de la aplicación de opciones reales compuestas de las patentes, aprovechando las similitudes en su construcción. Su aplicación se ilustra mediante la valoración de la marca de una compañía aseguradora.Intangible assets are an important component of the market value of a company, particularly in brands which represent the competitive advantage of the company; however, both Accounting and Finance face a great challenge when trying to value them. The methods which have been proposed by the literature appear to be subjective, limited, and based on some theoretical errors. Their use is mainly circumscribed to the management of intangibles. This paper proposes a methodology for the financial valuation of brands based on the application of a compound real option model to a patent valuation, acknowledging the similarities in their construction. Later, an application to an insurance company is presented.

  6. THE VALUATION OF INITIAL SHARE PRICE USING THE FREE CASH FLOW TO FIRM METHOD AND THE REAL OPTION METHOD IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adhy Listya Paramitha

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The purposes of this study were to determine fair share value, to analyze the factors that influence undervalue and overvalue, and to determine the best valuation method. This study made valuation using real options method and free cash flow to firm method. The results of partial logistic regression on Free Cash Flow to Firm showed that tenor variable and equity variable had positive and significant effects, while dummy variable had a negative and significant effect. In the real option model, tenor variable and implied volatility variable had positive and significant effects, while sheets of share variable had a negative and significant effect

  7. Awareness and perceived fairness of Option B+ in Malawi: A population-level perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeatman, Sara; Trinitapoli, Jenny

    2017-03-08

    Policies for rationing antiretroviral therapy (ART) have been subject to on-going ethical debates. Introduced in Malawi in 2011, Option B+ prioritized HIV-positive pregnant women for lifelong ART regardless of the underlying state of their immune system, shifting the logic of allocation away from medical eligibility. Despite the rapid expansion of this policy, we know little about how it has been understood and interpreted by the people it affects. We assessed awareness and perceived fairness of the prioritization system for ART among a population-based sample of young women (n = 1440) and their partners (n = 574) in southern Malawi. We use a card-sort technique to elicit understandings of who gets ART under Option B+ and who should be prioritized, and we compare perceptions to actual ART policy using sequence analysis and optimal matching. We then use ordered logistic regression to identify the factors associated with policy awareness. In 2015, only 30.7% of women and 21.1% of male partners understood how ART was being distributed. There was widespread confusion around whether otherwise healthy HIV-positive pregnant women could access ART under Option B + . Nonetheless, more young adults thought that the fairest policy should prioritize such women than believed the actual policy did. Women who were older, more educated or had recently engaged with the health system through antenatal care or ART had more accurate understandings of Option B + . Among men, policy awareness was lower, and was patterned only by education. Although most respondents were unaware that Option B+ afforded ART access to healthy-pregnant women, Malawians support the prioritization of pregnant women. Countries adopting Option B+ or other new ART policies such as universal test-and-treat should communicate the policies and their rationales to the public - such transparency would be more consistent with a fair and ethical process and could additionally serve to clarify confusion and

  8. Implementation of a real option in a sustainable supply chain: an empirical study of alkaline battery recycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchiella, Federica; D'Adamo, Idiano; Gastaldi, Massimo; Lenny Koh, S. C.

    2014-06-01

    Green supply chain management (GSCM) has emerged as a key approach for enterprises seeking to become environmentally sustainable. This paper aims to evaluate and describe the advantages of a GSCM approach by analysing practices and performance consequences in the battery recycling sector. It seeks to integrate works in supply chain management (SCM), environmental management, performance management and real option (RO) theory into one framework. In particular, life cycle assessment (LCA) is applied to evaluate the environmental impact of a battery recycling plant project, and life cycle costing (LCC) is applied to evaluate its economic impact. Firms, also understanding the relevance of GSCM, have often avoided applying the green principles because of the elevated costs that such management involved. Such costs could also seem superior to the potential advantages since standard performance measurement systems are internally and business focused; for these reasons, we consider all the possible value deriving also by uncertainty associated to a green project using the RO theory. This work is one of the few and pioneering efforts to investigate GSCM practices in the battery recycling sector.

  9. Energy Recovery from the Organic Fraction of Municipal Solid Waste: A Real Options-Based Facility Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Ranieri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last years, due to the strict regulations on waste landfilling, anaerobic digestion (AD of the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW is increasingly considered a sustainable alternative for waste stabilization and energy recovery. AD can reduce the volume of OFMSW going to landfill and produce, at the same time, biogas and compost, all at a profit. The uncertainty about the collected quantity of organic fraction, however, may undermine the economic-financial sustainability of such plants. While the flexibility characterizing some AD technologies may prove very valuable in uncertain contexts since it allows adapting plant capacity to changing environments, the investment required for building flexible systems is generally higher than the investment for dedicated equipment. Hence, an adequate justification of investments in these flexible systems is needed. This paper presents the results of a study aimed at investigating how different technologies may perform from technical, economic and financial standpoints, in presence of an uncertain organic fraction quantity to be treated. Focusing on two AD treatment plant configurations characterized by a technological process with different degree of flexibility, a real options-based model is developed and then applied to the case of the urban waste management system of the Metropolitan Area of Bari (Italy. Results show the importance of pricing the flexibility of treatment plants, which becomes a critical factor in presence of an uncertain organic fraction. Hence, it has to be taken into consideration in the design phase of these plants.

  10. Dedicating new real estate transfer taxes for energy efficiency: A revenue option for scaling up Green Retrofit Programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lester, T. William

    2013-01-01

    As the labor market in the U.S. remains weak, with high unemployment and sluggish job growth, policymakers at various levels of government are looking for new ways to support job growth and investment during an increasingly tight fiscal climate. Policies that promote the “Green Economy” in general and energy efficiency in particular remain politically popular as potential win–win solutions that will create jobs and curb greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, efforts to promote energy efficiency in the residential sector through rebates and incentives alone have yet to reach critical mass. This paper outlines a policy option for state and local governments to use real estate transfer taxes to generate stronger incentives for home buyers to undertake significant retrofit projects at the time of sale. The economic impact of the proposed energy efficiency transfer tax (EETT) is then modeled for the State of North Carolina, using standard input–output techniques. Ultimately, based on housing sales figures from 2010, a new EETT of 2.5 percent on home purchases would generate a net positive increase of approximately 3485 direct construction jobs and 5900 annually total jobs for the state. -- Highlights: •Proposes an Energy Efficiency Transfer Tax (EETT) to catalyze residential retrofits. •Models household behavioral response to an EETT. •Estimates induced energy efficiency investment levels in North Carolina. •Calculates net employment impacts of a hypothetical EETT. •Finds net impact of 5900 jobs and over $350 million in additional investment

  11. Feasibility analysis in the expansion proposal of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde: application of real options, binomial model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez I, S.; Ortiz C, E.; Chavez M, C.

    2011-11-01

    At the present time, is an unquestionable fact that the nuclear electrical energy is a topic of vital importance, no more because eliminates the dependence of the hydrocarbons and is friendly with the environment, but because is also a sure and reliable energy source, and represents a viable alternative before the claims in the growing demand of electricity in Mexico. Before this panorama, was intended several scenarios to elevate the capacity of electric generation of nuclear origin with a variable participation. One of the contemplated scenarios is represented by the expansion project of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde through the addition of a third reactor that serves as detonator of an integral program that proposes the installation of more nuclear reactors in the country. Before this possible scenario, the Federal Commission of Electricity like responsible organism of supplying energy to the population should have tools that offer it the flexibility to be adapted to the possible changes that will be presented along the project and also gives a value to the risk to future. The methodology denominated Real Options, Binomial model was proposed as an evaluation tool that allows to quantify the value of the expansion proposal, demonstrating the feasibility of the project through a periodic visualization of their evolution, all with the objective of supplying a financial analysis that serves as base and justification before the evident apogee of the nuclear energy that will be presented in future years. (Author)

  12. A Real Options Method for Estimating the Adoption Potential of Forestry and Agroforestry Systems on Private Lands in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory E. Frey; D. Evan Mercer; Frederick W. Cubbage; Robert C. Abt

    2010-01-01

    The Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (LMAV), once was the largest forested bottom-land area in the continental United States, but has undergone widespread loss of forest through conversion to farmland. Restoration of forest functions and values has been a key conservation goal in the LMAV since the 1970s. This study utilizes a partial differential real options...

  13. Reducing uncertainty in load forecasts and using real options for improving capacity dispatch management through the utilization of weather and hydrologic forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, T.

    2004-01-01

    The effect of weather on electricity markets was discussed with particular focus on reducing weather uncertainty by improving short term weather forecasts. The implications of weather for hydroelectric power dispatch and use were also discussed. Although some errors in weather forecasting can result in economic benefits, most errors are associated with more costs than benefits. This presentation described how a real options analysis can make weather a favorable option. Four case studies were presented for exploratory data analysis of regional weather phenomena. These included: (1) the 2001 California electricity crisis, (2) the delta breeze effects on the California ISO, (3) the summer 2002 weather forecast error for ISO New England, and (4) the hydro plant asset valuation using weather uncertainty. It was concluded that there is a need for more economic methodological studies on the effect of weather on energy markets and costs. It was suggested that the real options theory should be applied to weather planning and utility applications. tabs., figs

  14. Flexibility in using Diesel or biodiesel: an approach via real options; Flexibilidade na utilizacao de Diesel ou biodiesel: uma abordagem via opcoes reais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goncalves, Edson Daniel Lopes [Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: edson@fgvmail.br; Ferreira, Leonardo Leandro [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: leonardo.ferreira@petrobras.com.br

    2008-09-15

    This work will approach the bio diesel development as renewable source fuel in the Brazilian energetic matrix. Essentially, the utilization flexibility will be considered between the traditional petroleum origin Diesel and the vegetable origin Biodiesel. So, our target is the evaluation of the flexibility existent between those two fuels. A consideration will be made via real options, where the fuel choice for supplying is modelled as a an european options sequence. Those switch input real options attributes a value to the project and minimizes the risks associated to the energy offer shortage which is another recurrent problem inside our reality. At least, some comments will be made on the potential gain on the aggregate value for the Brazil, as a consequence of Diesel dependent road transportation.

  15. An ill-posed problem for the Black-Scholes equation for a profitable forecast of prices of stock options on real market data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klibanov, Michael V.; Kuzhuget, Andrey V.; Golubnichiy, Kirill V.

    2016-01-01

    A new empirical mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock, new initial and new boundary conditions. Conventional notions of maturity time and strike prices are not used. The Black-Scholes equation is solved as a parabolic equation with the reversed time, which is an ill-posed problem. Thus, a regularization method is used to solve it. To verify the validity of our model, real market data for 368 randomly selected liquid options are used. A new trading strategy is proposed. Our results indicates that our method is profitable on those options. Furthermore, it is shown that the performance of two simple extrapolation-based techniques is much worse. We conjecture that our method might lead to significant profits of those financial insitutions which trade large amounts of options. We caution, however, that further studies are necessary to verify this conjecture.

  16. Real Time Pricing as a Default or Optional Service for C&ICustomers: A Comparative Analysis of Eight Case Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Hopper,Nicole; Ting, Michael; Neenan, Bernie

    2005-08-01

    Demand response (DR) has been broadly recognized to be an integral component of well-functioning electricity markets, although currently underdeveloped in most regions. Among the various initiatives undertaken to remedy this deficiency, public utility commissions (PUC) and utilities have considered implementing dynamic pricing tariffs, such as real-time pricing (RTP), and other retail pricing mechanisms that communicate an incentive for electricity consumers to reduce their usage during periods of high generation supply costs or system reliability contingencies. Efforts to introduce DR into retail electricity markets confront a range of basic policy issues. First, a fundamental issue in any market context is how to organize the process for developing and implementing DR mechanisms in a manner that facilitates productive participation by affected stakeholder groups. Second, in regions with retail choice, policymakers and stakeholders face the threshold question of whether it is appropriate for utilities to offer a range of dynamic pricing tariffs and DR programs, or just ''plain vanilla'' default service. Although positions on this issue may be based primarily on principle, two empirical questions may have some bearing--namely, what level of price response can be expected through the competitive retail market, and whether establishing RTP as the default service is likely to result in an appreciable level of DR? Third, if utilities are to have a direct role in developing DR, what types of retail pricing mechanisms are most appropriate and likely to have the desired policy impact (e.g., RTP, other dynamic pricing options, DR programs, or some combination)? Given a decision to develop utility RTP tariffs, three basic implementation issues require attention. First, should it be a default or optional tariff, and for which customer classes? Second, what types of tariff design is most appropriate, given prevailing policy objectives, wholesale market

  17. The environmental assessment of nuclear materials disposition options: A transportation perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, R.K.; Clauss, D.B.; Moyer, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    The US Department of Energy has undertaken a program to evaluate and select options for the long-term storage and disposition of fissile materials declared surplus to defense needs as a result of the end of the Cold War. The transport of surplus fissile material will be an important and highly visible aspect of the environmental impact studies and other planning documents required for implementation of the disposition options. This report defines the roles and requirements for transportation of fissile materials in the program, and discusses an existing methodology for determining the environmental impact in terms of risk. While it will be some time before specific alternatives are chosen that will permit the completion of detailed risk calculations, the analytical models for performing the probabilistic risk assessments already exist with much of the supporting data related to the transportation system. This report summarizes the various types of data required and identifies sources for that data

  18. HIV-positive pregnant and postpartum women's perspectives about Option B+ in Malawi: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katirayi, Leila; Namadingo, Hazel; Phiri, Mafayo; Bobrow, Emily A; Ahimbisibwe, Allan; Berhan, Aida Yemane; Buono, Nicole; Moland, Karen Marie; Tylleskär, Thorkild

    2016-01-01

    The implementation of lifelong antiretroviral treatment (ART) for all pregnant women (Option B+) in Malawi has resulted in a significant increase in the number of HIV-positive pregnant women initiating treatment. However, research has highlighted the challenge of retaining newly initiated women in care. This study explores barriers and facilitators that affect a woman's decision to initiate and to adhere to Option B+. A total of 39 in-depth interviews and 16 focus group discussions were conducted. Eligible women were ≥18 years old, living with HIV and either pregnant and receiving antenatal care from a study site or had delivered a child within the last 18 months, breastfed their child and received services at one of the study sites. Eligible women were identified by healthcare workers (HCWs) in the antenatal clinic and ART unit. Focus groups were also conducted with HCWs employed in these departments. Qualitative data were analyzed using Maxqda version 10 (VERBI Software, Berlin, Germany). The general perception towards the drug regimen used in Option B+ was positive; women reported fewer side effects and acknowledged the positive benefits of ART. Women felt hopeful about prolonging their life and having an HIV-uninfected baby, yet grappled with the fact that ART is a lifelong commitment. Women and HCWs discussed challenges with the counselling services for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission under the new Option B+ guidelines, and many women struggled with initiating ART on the same day as learning their HIV status. Women wanted to discuss their circumstances with their husbands first, receive a CD4 count and obtain an HIV test at another facility to confirm their HIV status. HCWs expressed concern that women might just agree to take the drugs to please them. HCWs also discussed concerns around loss to follow-up and drug resistance. Although Option B+ has significantly increased the number of women initiating ART, there are still challenges that need

  19. Two years of real progress in European HEP networking: A CERN perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carpenter, B.E.; Fluckiger, F.; Gerard, J.M.; Lord, D.; Segal, B.

    1987-01-01

    The last two years have been marked by real progress in networking in HEP. Home-made developments, studies and plans have given way to the use of real networks involving hundreds of HEP and other computers and based on externally produced software and hardware. Within the last year, the first generation of industrial software products following some of the international standards for networking have become available. Related developments are taking place in networking for on-line systems and indeed the LEP experiments are distinguished by their heavy and crucial reliance on both local and wide-area networks. This paper describes the progress made at CERN since the last two years and looks at perspectives for the future. (orig.)

  20. An Application of the Real Options Method to the Valuation of a License to Operate 3G Mobile Phone Service in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Stille

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the contributions of the real option method to the decision making process in the telecommunications industry. We study the case of a public auction purchase of the license to operate a 3G mobile phone system in Brazil. The results indicate that the embedded flexibilities increase the value of the project by 64% in relative to the discounted cash flow method, which could justify the high premiums paid by the winning firms, which are incompatible with the value obtained from traditional methods of analysis. This suggests that the real options approach used, which can be easily replicated and is fairly intuitive, can be a useful tool to support the decision making process of these firms.

  1. Delaying investments in sensor technology: The rationality of dairy farmers' investment decisions illustrated within the framework of real options theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutten, C J; Steeneveld, W; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Hogeveen, H

    2018-05-02

    The adoption rate of sensors on dairy farms varies widely. Whereas some sensors are hardly adopted, others are adopted by many farmers. A potential rational explanation for the difference in adoption may be the expected future technological progress in the sensor technology and expected future improved decision support possibilities. For some sensors not much progress can be expected because the technology has already made enormous progress in recent years, whereas for sensors that have only recently been introduced on the market, much progress can be expected. The adoption of sensors may thus be partly explained by uncertainty about the investment decision, in which uncertainty lays in the future performance of the sensors and uncertainty about whether improved informed decision support will become available. The overall aim was to offer a plausible example of why a sensor may not be adopted now. To explain this, the role of uncertainty about technological progress in the investment decision was illustrated for highly adopted sensors (automated estrus detection) and hardly adopted sensors (automated body condition score). This theoretical illustration uses the real options theory, which accounts for the role of uncertainty in the timing of investment decisions. A discrete event model, simulating a farm of 100 dairy cows, was developed to estimate the net present value (NPV) of investing now and investing in 5 yr in both sensor systems. The results show that investing now in automated estrus detection resulted in a higher NPV than investing 5 yr from now, whereas for the automated body condition score postponing the investment resulted in a higher NPV compared with investing now. These results are in line with the observation that farmers postpone investments in sensors. Also, the current high adoption of automated estrus detection sensors can be explained because the NPV of investing now is higher than the NPV of investing in 5 yr. The results confirm that

  2. Real options as an alternative methodology to assess investment projects Las opciones reales como metodología alternativa en la evaluación de proyectos de inversión

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raúl Enrique Aristizábal Velásquez

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to broaden the applicability of the assessment methodology of investment projects through real options as a key element for investment decision making. Traditional project valuation methodologies are described and their gaps, which special characteristic is uncertainty, are presented. A parallel between financial and real options that could be used for valuation is made, using the binomial tree method. Finally, a case study in the construction sector shows a project valuation using expand and waiting options.Este trabajo busca ampliar la aplicabilidad de la metodología de valoración de proyectos de inversión por medio de opciones reales como un elemento fundamental al momento de tomar una decisión de si se debe invertir o no. Se hace un recorrido por las técnicas tradicionales para valorar un proyecto de inversión y se plantean los vacíos que estos dejan, con respecto a proyectos en los que su principal característica es la incertidumbre. Se realiza un paralelo entre las opciones financieras y las opciones reales que per- mita valorar, utilizando la metodología de los árboles binomiales. Por último, se elabora un caso del que se plantea valorar una opción de espera y una opción de expandir de manera conjunta en el sector de la construcción.

  3. Food waste conversion options in Singapore: environmental impacts based on an LCA perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoo, Hsien H; Lim, Teik Z; Tan, Reginald B H

    2010-02-15

    Proper management and recycling of huge volumes of food waste is one of the challenges faced by Singapore. Semakau island - the only offshore landfill of the nation - only accepts inert, inorganic solid waste and therefore a large bulk of food waste is directed to incinerators. A remaining small percent is sent for recycling via anaerobic digestion (AD), followed by composting of the digestate material. This article investigates the environmental performance of four food waste conversion scenarios - based on a life cycle assessment perspective - taking into account air emissions, useful energy from the incinerators and AD process, as well as carbon dioxide mitigation from the compost products derived from the digestate material and a proposed aerobic composting system. The life cycle impact results were generated for global warming, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical oxidation and energy use. The total normalized results showed that a small-scale proposed aerobic composting system is more environmentally favorable than incinerators, but less ideal compared to the AD process. By making full use of the AD's Recycling Phase II process alone, the Singapore Green Plan's 2012 aim to increase the recycling of food waste to 30% can easily be achieved, along with reduced global warming impacts.

  4. Adaptation Options for Land Drainage Systems Towards Sustainable Agriculture and Environment: A Czech Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulhavý, Zbyněk; Fučík, Petr

    2015-04-01

    In this paper, issues of agricultural drainage systems are introduced and discussed from the views of their former, current and future roles and functioning in the Czech Republic (CR). A methodologically disparate survey was done on thirty-nine model localities in CR with different intensity and state of land drainage systems, aimed at description of commonly occurred problems and possible adaptations of agricultural drainage as perceived by farmers, land owners, landscape managers or by protective water management. The survey was focused on technical state of drainage, fragmentation of land ownership within drained areas as well as on possible conflicts between agricultural and environmental interests in a landscape. Achieved results confirmed that there is obviously an increasing need to reassess some functions of prevailingly single-purpose agricultural drainage systems. Drainage intensity and detected unfavourable technical state of drainage systems as well as the risks connected with the anticipated climate change from the view of possible water scarcity claims for a complex solution. An array of adaptation options for agricultural drainage systems is presented, aiming at enhancement of water retention time and improvement of water quality. It encompasses additional flow-controlling measures on tiles or ditches, or facilities for making selected parts of a drainage system inoperable in order to retain or slow down the drainage runoff, to establish water accumulation zones and to enhance water self-cleaning processes. However, it was revealed that the question of landowner parcels fragmentation on drained land in CR would dramatically complicate design and realization of these measures. Presented solutions and findings are propounded with a respect to contemporary and future state policies and international strategies for sustainable agriculture, water management and environment.

  5. Current classification, treatment options, and new perspectives in the management of adipocytic sarcomas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De Vita A

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Alessandro De Vita,1 Laura Mercatali,1 Federica Recine,1 Federica Pieri,2 Nada Riva,1 Alberto Bongiovanni,1 Chiara Liverani,1 Chiara Spadazzi,1 Giacomo Miserocchi,1 Dino Amadori,1 Toni Ibrahim1 1Osteoncology and Rare Tumors Center, Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori (IRST IRCCS, Meldola, FC, 2Pathology Unit, Morgagni-Pierantoni Hospital, Forlì, Italy Abstract: Sarcomas are a heterogeneous group of mesenchymal tumors arising from soft tissue or bone, with an uncertain etiology and difficult classification. Soft tissue sarcomas (STSs account for around 1% of all adult cancers. Till date, more than 50 histologic subtypes have been identified. Adipocyte sarcoma or liposarcoma (LPS is one of the most common STS subtypes, accounting for 15% of all sarcomas, with an incidence of 24% of all extremity STSs and 45% of all retroperitoneal STSs. The new World Health Organization classification system has divided LPS into four different subgroups: atypical lipomatous tumor/well-differentiated LPS, dedifferentiated LPS, myxoid LPS, and pleomorphic LPS. These lesions can develop at any location and exhibit different aggressive potentials reflecting their morphologic diversity and clinical behavior. Patients affected by LPS should be managed in specialized multidisciplinary cancer centers. Whereas surgical resection is the mainstay of treatment for localized disease, the benefits of adjuvant and neoadjuvant chemotherapy are still unclear. Systemic treatment, particularly chemotherapy, is still limited in metastatic disease. Despite the efforts toward a better understanding of the biology of LPS, the outcome of advanced and metastatic patients remains poor. The advent of targeted therapies may lead to an improvement of treatment options and clinical outcomes. A larger patient enrollment into translational and clinical studies will help increase the knowledge of the biological behavior of LPSs, test new drugs, and introduce new

  6. Drinking and its burden in a global perspective: policy considerations and options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Room, Robin; Graham, Kathryn; Rehm, Jürgen; Jernigan, David; Monteiro, Maristela

    2003-10-01

    To identify the policy implications of the magnitude and characteristics of alcohol consumption and problems, viewed globally, and to summarize conclusions on the effectiveness of the strategies available to policymakers concerned with reducing rates of alcohol problems. This summative article draws on the findings of the articles preceding it and of reviews of the literature. Overall volume of consumption is the major factor in the prevalence of harms from drinking. Since consumption and associated problems tend to increase with economic development, policymakers in developing economies should be especially aware of the need to develop policies to minimize overall increases in alcohol consumption. Unrecorded consumption is also an important consideration for policy in many parts of the world, and poses difficulties for alcohol control policies. Drinking pattern is also an important contributing factor toward alcohol-related harm. Although some drinking patterns have been shown to produce beneficial health effects, because the net effect of alcohol on coronary disease is negative in most parts of the world, policies that promote abstinence or lower drinking overall may be the safest options. Moreover, sporadic intoxication is common in many parts of the world, and policies are unlikely to change this drinking pattern at least in the short to medium term. At the same time, because injuries comprise a large proportion of the burden of alcohol, it is appropriate to enhance these policies with targeted harm reduction strategies such as drinking and driving countermeasures and interventions focused on reducing alcohol-related violence in specific high-risk settings. Alcohol consumption is a major factor for the global burden of disease and should be considered a public health priority globally, regionally, and nationally for the vast majority of countries in the world. The need for alcohol policy is even stronger when it is taken into consideration that the burden of

  7. Proceedings of the GLOBAL 2009 congress - The Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Sustainable Options and Industrial Perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-06-01

    TOP FUEL / Water Reactor Fuel Performance which shares some common technical sessions. The exhibition is the same for the two meetings. Intended participants and audiences include personnel working on all aspects of the NFC, such as scientific and technical topics, design challenges, industrial implementation, societal and institutional issues (including regulatory framework), and policy questions. The technical Program includes the following topical areas: 1 - Front End of the Fuel Cycle; 2 - Current Spent Nuclear Fuel Recycling; 3 - Waste Management Technologies And Strategies; 4 - Concepts for Transportation and Interim Storage of Spent Fuels and Conditioned Waste or Other Radioactive Materials; 5 - Nuclear Waste Repository Developments; 6 - Advanced Technologies for Fuel Recycling Including Partitioning of Specific Radionuclides; 7 - Advances in Reactor Cores Design and In-core Fuel Management; 8 - Transmutation Systems for Long Lived Radio Nuclides; 9 - Developments in Nuclear Non-Proliferation Technology, Policy and Implementation; 10 - Sustainable Fuel Cycle Options and Nuclear Material Management; 11 - Dismantling, Decommissioning and Material Management; 12 - Crosscutting Issues, Policies and Programs; 13 - Plenary Sessions

  8. Proceedings of the GLOBAL 2009 congress - The Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Sustainable Options and Industrial Perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-06-15

    TOP FUEL / Water Reactor Fuel Performance which shares some common technical sessions. The exhibition is the same for the two meetings. Intended participants and audiences include personnel working on all aspects of the NFC, such as scientific and technical topics, design challenges, industrial implementation, societal and institutional issues (including regulatory framework), and policy questions. The technical Program includes the following topical areas: 1 - Front End of the Fuel Cycle; 2 - Current Spent Nuclear Fuel Recycling; 3 - Waste Management Technologies And Strategies; 4 - Concepts for Transportation and Interim Storage of Spent Fuels and Conditioned Waste or Other Radioactive Materials; 5 - Nuclear Waste Repository Developments; 6 - Advanced Technologies for Fuel Recycling Including Partitioning of Specific Radionuclides; 7 - Advances in Reactor Cores Design and In-core Fuel Management; 8 - Transmutation Systems for Long Lived Radio Nuclides; 9 - Developments in Nuclear Non-Proliferation Technology, Policy and Implementation; 10 - Sustainable Fuel Cycle Options and Nuclear Material Management; 11 - Dismantling, Decommissioning and Material Management; 12 - Crosscutting Issues, Policies and Programs; 13 - Plenary Sessions.

  9. The RealGas and RealGasH2O Options of the TOUGH+ Code for the Simulation of Coupled Fluid and Heat Flow in Tight/Shale Gas Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moridis, George; Freeman, Craig

    2013-09-30

    We developed two new EOS additions to the TOUGH+ family of codes, the RealGasH2O and RealGas . The RealGasH2O EOS option describes the non-isothermal two-phase flow of water and a real gas mixture in gas reservoirs, with a particular focus in ultra-tight (such as tight-sand and shale gas) reservoirs. The gas mixture is treated as either a single-pseudo-component having a fixed composition, or as a multicomponent system composed of up to 9 individual real gases. The RealGas option has the same general capabilities, but does not include water, thus describing a single-phase, dry-gas system. In addition to the standard capabilities of all members of the TOUGH+ family of codes (fully-implicit, compositional simulators using both structured and unstructured grids), the capabilities of the two codes include: coupled flow and thermal effects in porous and/or fractured media, real gas behavior, inertial (Klinkenberg) effects, full micro-flow treatment, Darcy and non-Darcy flow through the matrix and fractures of fractured media, single- and multi-component gas sorption onto the grains of the porous media following several isotherm options, discrete and fracture representation, complex matrix-fracture relationships, and porosity-permeability dependence on pressure changes. The two options allow the study of flow and transport of fluids and heat over a wide range of time frames and spatial scales not only in gas reservoirs, but also in problems of geologic storage of greenhouse gas mixtures, and of geothermal reservoirs with multi-component condensable (H2O and CH4) and non-condensable gas mixtures. The codes are verified against available analytical and semi-analytical solutions. Their capabilities are demonstrated in a series of problems of increasing complexity, ranging from isothermal flow in simpler 1D and 2D conventional gas reservoirs, to non-isothermal gas flow in 3D fractured shale gas reservoirs involving 4 types of fractures, micro-flow, non-Darcy flow and gas

  10. Investment analysis in hydraulic energy generation by using the real options theory; Analise de investimentos em geracao hidraulica utilizando a teoria de opcoes reais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noronha, J.C. Caminha; Lima, J.W. Marangon [Universidade Federal de Itajuba (UNIFEI), MG (Brazil)]. E-mails: juliaccn@unifei.edu.br; marangon@unifei.edu.br; Ferreira, T.G. Leite [Associacao Brasileira dos Investidores em Autoproducao de Energia Eletrica (ABIAPE), Brasilia, DF (Brazil)]. E-mail: tiago@abiape.com.br

    2006-07-01

    This paper presents a methodology of investment analysis in power plants using the Real Option Theory. Particularly, the investment opportunity of a hydro plant is valued based on the energy that will be traded at the new energy auction using the Brazilian Development Bank - BNDES financing program for the Generation of electric energy (new energy). Since this kind of project involves a multistage investment consisting of design, construction and operation phases, it can be treated as a sequential compound option. A binomial approach was elaborated to model this investment opportunity analysis. This approach models the uncertainties in setting up the cash flow for the investments and incorporates some possible managerial flexibility associated with the decision taken along the investment forecast. The proposed methodology will be described in parallel with an example of a real hydro-plant in which we incorporated the flexibilities regarding the decision to invest in each step of the project and an build phase abandon option, representing the transfer of concession rights after the auction. (author)

  11. Comparison through a LCA evaluation analysis of food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Mi-Hyung; Kim, Jung-Wk

    2010-01-01

    This study evaluated feed manufacturing including dry feeding and wet feeding, composting, and landfilling for food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery. The method of the expanded system boundaries was employed in order to compare different by-products. The whole stages of disposal involved in the systems such as separate discharge, collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal, were included in the system boundary and evaluated. The Global Warming Potential generated from 1 tonne of food wastes for each disposal system was analyzed by the life cycle assessment method. The results showed that 200 kg of CO 2 -eq could be produced from dry feeding process, 61 kg of CO 2 -eq from wet feeding process, 123 kg of CO 2 -eq from composting process, and 1010 kg of CO 2 -eq from landfilling. Feed manufacturing and composting, the common treatment methods currently employed, have been known to be environment friendlier than other methods. However, this study shows that they can negatively affect the environment if their by-products are not appropriately utilized as intended.

  12. Comparison through a LCA evaluation analysis of food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Mi-Hyung, E-mail: mhkim9@snu.ac.kr [Department of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Sillim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jung-Wk, E-mail: kimjw@snu.ac.kr [Department of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Sillim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-09-01

    This study evaluated feed manufacturing including dry feeding and wet feeding, composting, and landfilling for food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery. The method of the expanded system boundaries was employed in order to compare different by-products. The whole stages of disposal involved in the systems such as separate discharge, collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal, were included in the system boundary and evaluated. The Global Warming Potential generated from 1 tonne of food wastes for each disposal system was analyzed by the life cycle assessment method. The results showed that 200 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq could be produced from dry feeding process, 61 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq from wet feeding process, 123 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq from composting process, and 1010 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq from landfilling. Feed manufacturing and composting, the common treatment methods currently employed, have been known to be environment friendlier than other methods. However, this study shows that they can negatively affect the environment if their by-products are not appropriately utilized as intended.

  13. The primary assessment tool at Philips electronics : capturing real options and organizational risk in technology portfolio management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lint, L.J.O.

    2000-01-01

    I develop an extended scoring approach to build a balanced portfolio of new technology projects under uncertainty at early stages of development. My contribution is twofold. First, I show how the tool incorporates the option approach to decision making to create contingent claims on future market

  14. Estimating spillover benefits of large R and D projects: Application of real options modelling approach to the case of thermonuclear fusion R and D programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bednyagin, Denis; Gnansounou, Edgard

    2012-01-01

    This paper is focused on the analysis of spillover benefits of the ongoing R and D programme on thermonuclear fusion technology. The spillover effects are understood here as positive externalities of publicly funded R and D, demonstration and deployment (RDDD) activities that may be revealed at the companies' level in the form of newly created knowledge stock; development of innovative products/processes with broader market applications; strengthening of R and D, manufacturing and marketing capabilities; etc. An integrated compound real options model is proposed that allows to estimate the strategic net social present value of fusion RDDD programme taking into account the different types of spillover benefits along with the hidden real options value arising due to uncertainty and managerial flexibility. It was found that the value of spillover effects, modelled as “expansion option”, could represent a significant proportion of the overall socio-economic value of fusion RDDD programme (nearly 20%). This paper clearly demonstrates that, besides a high-level mission to assure sustainable energy supply, fusion RDDD programme may yield substantial net socio-economic benefits that may be at least two times higher compared to the expected RD and D costs, and hence the pursuit of even more ambitious programme is economically justified. - Highlights: ► Evaluate the strategic net social present value of fusion RDDD programme. ► Consider different types of spillover effects. ► Economic value of spillovers is estimated with a compound real options model. ► Spillover benefits could represent up to 20% of the value of fusion RDDD programme.

  15. Should France invest in new nuclear technology? The enhancement of the EPR project using 'real option' method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epaulard, A.; Gallon, St.

    2000-01-01

    The mathematical tools developed to enhance financial options can also be used to calculate the economics value of investment projects which offer flexibility but whose return is uncertain (like options offered on the stock exchange). In this article, an enhancement method of this kind is applied to a construction project (in 2000) for an EPR nuclear prototype. This prototype will make it possible to use EPR to renew the French electrical infrastructure in 2020 (flexibility), but its economic value will depend upon competitiveness vis-a-vis other production methods available at this time (hence an uncertain return). We demonstrate that investing in EPR technology in 2000 will provide sufficient flexibility in 2020 to be considered profitable, even though it is improbable that the EPR technology will be used at the end of this period. The investment agreed in 2000 to expand EPR technology therefore effectively has the role of an option, or of an insurance policy (guaranteeing against the risk that traditional electricity production methods will be expensive in 2020). (authors)

  16. Economic assessment of R and D with real options in the field of fast reactors taking into account uncertainty on their competitiveness: the case of France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taverdet-Popiolek, Nathalie; Shoai Tehrani, Bianka

    2013-01-01

    In a context of potential worldwide nuclear development, this paper aims at assessing the economic value of pursuing research in Generation IV fast reactors today, given that it would allow industrial deployment around 2040 in case of high uranium prices. Two key variables shall be considered as inputs for the assessment: the price of uranium and the over-cost of Generation IV reactors compared to the previous generation. Our model based on real options theory demonstrates that this value is positive and outweighs the risks associated with the competitiveness of Generation IV. (authors)

  17. REIT Performance and Option of Financing Real Estate Project in Developing Countries - (A Case of M-REIT and NREIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olaopin Olanrele Olusegun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Performance of REITs have been largely measured using benchmark from the stock market indices (S&P500, Sharpe ratio, KLCI, etc or correlation studies. The real world of REIT shows that both economic and environmental factors exert influence on REIT performance on a simultaneous nature. Adopting quantitative method, where secondary data were statistically analysed. We proposed the use of multivariate regression where REIT performance (Y is the independent variable to be predicted by predictor variables of internal and external factors (X1–Xn. We equally proposed a possibility of REIT financing real estate project, against the existing regulations which prohibit such, using average return method of portfolio analysis on assumed numerical data. The study finds that economic factors jointly have a significant effect on REIT performance at P =0.044 while none of the factors has significant contribution individually. A benchmark REIT return of 5.3% is predicted. The study recommends a linear regression model analysis for REITs benchmark based on past performance for return measurement. REIT can only finance real estate project in the countries where there is acute shortage of fund and property stock. We suggest a modification of REIT laws to accommodate real estate financing by REITs.

  18. Estimating the influence of U.S. ethanol policy on plant investment decisions: A real options analysis with two stochastic variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmit, T.M.; Luo, J.; Conrad, J.M.

    2011-01-01

    U.S. ethanol policies have contributed to changes in the levels and the volatilities of revenues and costs facing ethanol firms. The implications of these policies for optimal investment behavior are investigated through an extension of the real options framework that allows for the consideration of volatility in both revenue and cost components, as well as the correlation between them. The effects of policy affecting plant revenues dominate the effects of those policies affecting production costs. In the absence of these policies, much of the recent expansionary periods would have not existed and market conditions in the late-1990s would have led to some plant closures. We also show that, regardless of plant size, U.S. ethanol policy has narrowed the distance between the optimal entry and exit curves, implying a more narrow range of inactivity and indicative of a more volatile evolution for the industry than would have existed otherwise. - Highlights: ► An extended real options framework with two stochastic variables is developed. ► Ethanol expansion largely induced by the revenue-enhancing effects of policy. ► Removing effects of policy changes optimal entry/exit environment considerably. ► To expand US ethanol industry, size of policy contributions needs to grow. ► US ethanol policy has fostered more volatile industry development.

  19. The pitfalls of capital budgeting : when costs correlate to oil price. Is the real-options approach superior to traditional valuation?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schiozer, R.F. [Getulio Vargas Foundation, Sao Paolo (Brazil). School of Administration de Empresas; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B. [Unicamp, Campinas (Brazil). Center of Petroleum Studies

    2007-07-01

    Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.

  20. The pitfalls of capital budgeting : when costs correlate to oil price. Is the real-options approach superior to traditional valuation?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schiozer, R.F.; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B.

    2007-01-01

    Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

  1. Stochastic control and real options valuation of thermal storage-enabled demand response from flexible district energy systems

    OpenAIRE

    Kitapbayev, Yerkin; Moriarty, John; Mancarella, Pierluigi

    2014-01-01

    In district energy systems powered by Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants, thermal storage can significantly increase CHP flexibility to respond to real time market signals and therefore improve the business case of such demand response schemes in a Smart Grid environment. However, main challenges remain as to what is the optimal way to control inter-temporal storage operation in the presence of uncertain market prices, and then how to value the investment into storage as flexibility enabler...

  2. Is 'Opt-Out HIV Testing' a real option among pregnant women in rural districts in Kenya?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wamalwa David

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An 'opt-out' policy of routine HIV counseling and testing (HCT is being implemented across sub-Saharan Africa to expand prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT. Although the underlying assumption is that pregnant women in rural Africa are able to voluntarily consent to HIV testing, little is known about the reality and whether 'opt-out' HCT leads to higher completion rates of PMTCT. Factors associated with consent to HIV testing under the 'opt-out' approach were investigated through a large cross-sectional study in Kenya. Methods Observations during HIV pre-test information sessions were followed by a cross-sectional survey of 900 pregnant women in three public district hospitals carrying out PMTCT in the Busia district. Women on their first antenatal care (ANC visit during the current pregnancy were interviewed after giving blood for HIV testing but before learning their test results. Descriptive statistics and multivariate regression analysis were performed. Results Of the 900 women participating, 97% tested for HIV. Lack of testing kits was the only reason for women not being tested, i.e. nobody declined HIV testing. Despite the fact that 96% had more than four earlier pregnancies and 37% had been tested for HIV at ANC previously, only 17% of the women surveyed knew that testing was optional. Only 20% of those surveyed felt they could make an informed decision to decline HIV testing. Making an informed decision to decline HIV testing was associated with knowing that testing was optional (OR = 5.44, 95%CI 3.44-8.59, not having a stable relationship with the child's father (OR = 1.76, 95%CI 1.02-3.03, and not having discussed HIV testing with a partner before the ANC visit (OR = 2.64 95%CI 1.79-3.86. Conclusion High coverage of HIV testing appears to be achieved at the cost of pregnant women not understanding that testing is optional. Good quality HIV pre-test information is central to ensure that pregnant women

  3. Long expansion planning of electrical power availability in Brazil under the real options theoretical approach; Planejamento de longo prazo da expansao da oferta de energia eletrica no Brasil sob uma perspectiva da teoria das opcoes reais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marreco, Juliana de Moraes

    2007-05-15

    This thesis considers uncertainty on the long term generation expansion planning in the Brazilian Electric System, under a Real Options Approach . First, Real Options Theory is used to demonstrate the importance of thermo power plants insertion in Brazil, through a flexibility valuation on hydrothermal system. This is the first objective of this thesis. In the second part a Real Options Model is proposed to support long term expansion studies, based in a levelized costs analysis. The adequacy of proposed models to real problem is illustrated by a case study of the Brazilian Power System. The results show the importance of the energetic matrix diversification on the Long Term Planning. In the expansion model proposed, results are in favor of higher participation of biomass, nuclear power and coal in Brazilian electricity generation matrix. (author)

  4. Real options theory to the pricing of allowances contract to carbon emission; Teoria de opcoes reais para a precificacao de contrato de permissoes de emissao de carbono

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horii, Leticia Takahashi; Parente, Virginia; Goldemberg, Jose [Universidade de Sao Paulo (IEE/USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia

    2010-07-01

    The objective of this work is to develop a pricing model contract for allowances to emit carbon through Real Options. Emissions allowances are equivalent tons of carbon traded between Annex I countries from companies that have the ability to reduce their emissions beyond what is assigned to it. The surplus of emission reductions produced by these companies may be sold in the emissions market. Thus, this work can contribute to improving the management of contractual risk and enable companies estimated the price at which a contract can be signed. Properly evaluate the contracts that the market environment is a challenge for companies. The historic low of information and randomness in the price of carbon allowances in the spot market suggest extreme caution in its use. (author)

  5. Some new features of Direct Analysis in Real Time mass spectrometry utilizing the desorption at an angle option.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernetsova, Elena S; Revelsky, Alexander I; Morlock, Gertrud E

    2011-08-30

    The present study is a first step towards the unexplored capabilities of Direct Analysis in Real Time (DART) mass spectrometry (MS) arising from the possibility of the desorption at an angle: scanning analysis of surfaces, including the coupling of thin-layer chromatography (TLC) with DART-MS, and a more sensitive analysis due to the preliminary concentration of analytes dissolved in large volumes of liquids on glass surfaces. In order to select the most favorable conditions for DART-MS analysis, proper positioning of samples is important. Therefore, a simple and cheap technique for the visualization of the impact region of the DART gas stream onto a substrate was developed. A filter paper or TLC plate, previously loaded with the analyte, was immersed in a derivatization solution. On this substrate, owing to the impact of the hot DART gas, reaction of the analyte to a colored product occurred. An improved capability of detection of DART-MS for the analysis of liquids was demonstrated by applying large volumes of model solutions of coumaphos into small glass vessels and drying these solutions prior to DART-MS analysis under ambient conditions. This allowed the introduction of, by up to more than two orders of magnitude, increased quantities of analyte compared with the conventional DART-MS analysis of liquids. Through this improved detectability, the capabilities of DART-MS in trace analysis could be strengthened. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Reproductive rights and options available to women infected with HIV in Ghana: perspectives of service providers from three Ghanaian health facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laar, Amos Kankponang

    2013-03-15

    Owing to improved management of HIV and its associated opportunistic infections, many HIV-positive persons of reproductive age are choosing to exercise their right of parenthood. This study explored the knowledge of health workers from two Ghanaian districts on the reproductive rights and options available to HIV-positive women who wish to conceive. Facility-based cross-sectional in design, the study involved the entire population of nurse counselors (32) and medical officers (3) who provide counseling and testing services to clients infected with HIV. Both structured and in-depth interviews were conducted after informed consent. Two main perspectives were revealed. There was an overwhelmingly high level of approbation by the providers on HIV-positive women's right to reproduction (94.3%). At the same time, the providers demonstrated a lack of knowledge regarding the various reproductive options available to women infected with HIV. Site of facility, and being younger were associated with practices that violated client's right to contraceptive counseling (p women on the various reproductive options. Taken together, these findings suggest that many HIV-positive clients do not receive comprehensive information about their reproductive options. These findings highlight some of the problems that service providers face as HIV counselors. Both service providers and policy makers need to recognize these realities and incorporate reproductive health issues of HIV-persons into the existing guidelines.

  7. Uncooled Terahertz real-time imaging 2D arrays developed at LETI: present status and perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simoens, François; Meilhan, Jérôme; Dussopt, Laurent; Nicolas, Jean-Alain; Monnier, Nicolas; Sicard, Gilles; Siligaris, Alexandre; Hiberty, Bruno

    2017-05-01

    As for other imaging sensor markets, whatever is the technology, the commercial spread of terahertz (THz) cameras has to fulfil simultaneously the criteria of high sensitivity and low cost and SWAP (size, weight and power). Monolithic silicon-based 2D sensors integrated in uncooled THz real-time cameras are good candidates to meet these requirements. Over the past decade, LETI has been studying and developing such arrays with two complimentary technological approaches, i.e. antenna-coupled silicon bolometers and CMOS Field Effect Transistors (FET), both being compatible to standard silicon microelectronics processes. LETI has leveraged its know-how in thermal infrared bolometer sensors in developing a proprietary architecture for THz sensing. High technological maturity has been achieved as illustrated by the demonstration of fast scanning of large field of view and the recent birth of a commercial camera. In the FET-based THz field, recent works have been focused on innovative CMOS read-out-integrated circuit designs. The studied architectures take advantage of the large pixel pitch to enhance the flexibility and the sensitivity: an embedded in-pixel configurable signal processing chain dramatically reduces the noise. Video sequences at 100 frames per second using our 31x31 pixels 2D Focal Plane Arrays (FPA) have been achieved. The authors describe the present status of these developments and perspectives of performance evolutions are discussed. Several experimental imaging tests are also presented in order to illustrate the capabilities of these arrays to address industrial applications such as non-destructive testing (NDT), security or quality control of food.

  8. Value adding management of hospital real estate : Balancing between different stakeholders’ perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zwart, J.; van der Voordt, D.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    In addition to cost effectiveness, possible contributions of real estate to organisational performance are incorporated in strategic corporate real estate management nowadays more and more. This paper explores the concept of adding value by real estate and how this concept is being applied in design

  9. Near-real-time materials accountancy in an international perspective or will the real near-real-time materials accountancy please stand up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovett, J.E.

    1981-01-01

    During the 1970's the IAEA gave considerable attention to the question of what its quantitative goals should be. These discussions led, in January 1980, to a set of provisional guidelines which considered both abrupt and protracted diversion possibilities. In a search for an effective means of achieving these goals at large bulk processing facilities, two technological concepts have been put forward. One concept, commonly referred to as near-real-time materials accountancy, is reviewed in this paper. 9 refs

  10. Climate change and the economics of biomass energy feedstocks in semi-arid agricultural landscapes: A spatially explicit real options analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Courtney M; Connor, Jeffery D; Raja Segaran, Ramesh; Meyer, Wayne S; Bryan, Brett A; Ostendorf, Bertram

    2017-05-01

    The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted diversification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically diverse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield

  11. Using life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis in a real options framework to inform the design of algal biofuel production facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kern, Jordan D; Hise, Adam M; Characklis, Greg W; Gerlach, Robin; Viamajala, Sridhar; Gardner, Robert D

    2017-02-01

    This study investigates the use of "real options analysis" (ROA) to quantify the value of greater product flexibility at algal biofuel production facilities. A deterministic optimization framework is integrated with a combined life cycle assessment/techno-economic analysis model and subjected to an ensemble of 30-year commodity price trajectories. Profits are maximized for two competing plant configurations: 1) one that sells lipid-extracted algae as animal feed only; and 2) one that can sell lipid-extracted algae as feed or use it to recover nutrients and energy, due to an up-front investment in anaerobic digestion/combined heat and power. Results show that added investment in plant flexibility does not result in an improvement in net present value, because current feed meal prices discourage use of lipid-extracted algae for nutrient and energy recovery. However, this study demonstrates that ROA provides many useful insights regarding plant design that cannot be captured via traditional techno-economic modeling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hampton, Michael

    1999-01-01

    This chapter focuses on energy options as a means of managing exposure to energy prices. An intuitive approach to energy options is presented, and traditional definitions of call and put options are given. The relationship between options and swaps, option value and option exercises, commodity options, and option pricing are described. An end-user's guide to energy option strategy is outlined, and straight options, collars, participating swaps and collars, bull and bear spreads, and swaption are examined. Panels explaining the defining of basis risk, and discussing option pricing and the Greeks, delta hedging, managing oil options using the Black-Scholes model, caps, floors and collars, and guidelines on hedging versus speculation with options are included in the paper

  13. Potential impact of (CET) carbon emissions trading on China’s power sector: A perspective from different allowance allocation options

    OpenAIRE

    Cong, Rong-Gang; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2010-01-01

    In Copenhagen climate conference China government promised that China would cut down carbon intensity 40e45% from 2005 by 2020. CET (carbon emissions trading) is an effective tool to reduce emissions. But because CET is not fully implemented in China up to now, how to design it and its potential impact are unknown to us. This paper studies the potential impact of introduction of CET on China’s power sector and discusses the impact of different allocation options of allowances. Agent-based mod...

  14. Dynamic Reconfiguration in Real-Time Systems Energy, Performance, and Thermal Perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Weixun; Ranka, Sanjay

    2013-01-01

    Given the widespread use of real-time multitasking systems, there are tremendous optimization opportunities if reconfigurable computing can be effectively incorporated while maintaining performance and other design constraints of typical applications. The focus of this book is to describe the dynamic reconfiguration techniques that can be safely used in real-time systems. This book provides comprehensive approaches by considering synergistic effects of computation, communication as well as storage together to significantly improve overall performance, power, energy and temperature.  Provides a comprehensive introduction to optimization and dynamic reconfiguration techniques in real-time embedded systems; Covers state-of-the-art techniques and ongoing research in reconfigurable architectures; Focuses on algorithms tuned for dynamic reconfiguration techniques in real-time systems;  Provides reference for anyone designing low-power systems, energy-/temperature-constrained devices, and power-performance efficie...

  15. Feasibility analysis in the expansion proposal of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde: application of real options, binomial model; Analisis de viabilidad en la propuesta de expansion de la central nucleoelectrica Laguna Verde: aplicacion de opciones reales, modelo binomial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez I, S.; Ortiz C, E.; Chavez M, C., E-mail: lunitza@gmail.com [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Circuito Interior, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)

    2011-11-15

    At the present time, is an unquestionable fact that the nuclear electrical energy is a topic of vital importance, no more because eliminates the dependence of the hydrocarbons and is friendly with the environment, but because is also a sure and reliable energy source, and represents a viable alternative before the claims in the growing demand of electricity in Mexico. Before this panorama, was intended several scenarios to elevate the capacity of electric generation of nuclear origin with a variable participation. One of the contemplated scenarios is represented by the expansion project of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde through the addition of a third reactor that serves as detonator of an integral program that proposes the installation of more nuclear reactors in the country. Before this possible scenario, the Federal Commission of Electricity like responsible organism of supplying energy to the population should have tools that offer it the flexibility to be adapted to the possible changes that will be presented along the project and also gives a value to the risk to future. The methodology denominated Real Options, Binomial model was proposed as an evaluation tool that allows to quantify the value of the expansion proposal, demonstrating the feasibility of the project through a periodic visualization of their evolution, all with the objective of supplying a financial analysis that serves as base and justification before the evident apogee of the nuclear energy that will be presented in future years. (Author)

  16. THE EFFECTS OF STOCK OPTION COMPENSATION ONMANAGERIAL RISK TAKING BEHAVIOR AND FIRM FINANCIALPERFORMANCETHE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS FROM ADIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guler Aras

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to figure out whether managerial risk taking behaviourand firm financial performance is effected by stock option compensation.Inliterature stock optioncompensationismentionedasa meansto solve agencyproblems. It is analysed how stock option compensation aligns theshareholders’andmanagers’ interestsand its effects on firm financialperformance. Additionally, it isinvestigatedwhether this effecthas a link to theglobal financial crisis which hasobviously related to the managers’extreme riskseeking behaviourespecially in financial sector. Inthis study, 189 firms fromS P index are analysedutilizingthe panel dataanalysismethod between years1998-2009. Additionally, regression method is used to measureeach year. Thedata set is grouped as financial and non financial sector tobetterpresent theeffects of global financial crisis.According to the results of this study, stockoption compensation is positively related to investment magnitudes which aretaken as indicators of risk taking behavior.On the other hand, it is negativelyrelated to firm financial performance.According to the results of yearlycomparison, in financial sector the invesment magnitudes are bigger than the nonfinancial sector just two years before the financial crisis and net cash flow fromthe investing activities is significantly negative when compared with non financialsector.Therefore,it is aimed to findoutthe relation between the extreme riskseeking behaviorbefore the global financial crisisand the incentive compensationstructures.

  17. Assessment of alternative fuel and powertrain transit bus options using real-world operations data: Life-cycle fuel and emissions modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Yanzhi; Gbologah, Franklin E.; Lee, Dong-Yeon; Liu, Haobing; Rodgers, Michael O.; Guensler, Randall L.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We present a practical fuel and emissions modeling tool for alternative fuel buses. • The model assesses well-to-wheels emissions impacts of bus fleet decisions. • Mode-based approach is used to account for duty cycles and local conditions. • A case study using real-world operations data from Atlanta, GA is presented. • Impacts of alternative bus options depend on operating and geographic features. - Abstract: Hybrid and electric powertrains and alternative fuels (e.g., compressed natural gas (CNG), biodiesel, or hydrogen) can often reduce energy consumption and emissions from transit bus operations relative to conventional diesel. However, the magnitude of these energy and emissions savings can vary significantly, due to local conditions and transit operating characteristics. This paper introduces the transit Fuel and Emissions Calculator (FEC), a mode-based life-cycle emissions modeling tool for transit bus and rail technologies that compares the performance of multiple alternative fuels and powertrains across a range of operational characteristics and conditions. The purpose of the FEC is to provide a practical, yet technically sophisticated tool for regulatory agencies and policy analysts in assessing transit fleet options. The FEC’s modal modeling approach estimates emissions as a function of engine load, which in turn is a function of transit service parameters, including duty cycle (idling and speed-acceleration profile), road grade, and passenger loading. This approach allows for customized assessments that account for local conditions. Direct emissions estimates are derived from the scaled tractive power (STP) operating mode bins and emissions factors employed in the U.S. EPA’s MOVES (MOtor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) model. Life-cycle emissions estimates are calculated using emissions factors from the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model. The case study presented in this paper

  18. Quantifying the value of investing in distributed natural gas and renewable electricity systems as complements: Applications of discounted cash flow and real options analysis with stochastic inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pless, Jacquelyn; Arent, Douglas J.; Logan, Jeffrey; Cochran, Jaquelin; Zinaman, Owen

    2016-01-01

    One energy policy objective in the United States is to promote the adoption of technologies that provide consumers with stable, secure, and clean energy. Recent work provides anecdotal evidence of natural gas (NG) and renewable electricity (RE) synergies in the power sector, however few studies quantify the value of investing in NG and RE systems together as complements. This paper uses discounted cash flow analysis and real options analysis to value hybrid NG-RE systems in distributed applications, focusing on residential and commercial projects assumed to be located in the states of New York and Texas. Technology performance and operational risk profiles are modeled at the hourly level to capture variable RE output and NG prices are modeled stochastically as geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) stochastic processes to capture NG price uncertainty. The findings consistently suggest that NG-RE hybrid distributed systems are more favorable investments in the applications studied relative to their single-technology alternatives when incentives for renewables are available. In some cases, NG-only systems are the favorable investments. Understanding the value of investing in NG-RE hybrid systems provides insights into one avenue towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions, given the important role of NG and RE in the power sector. - Highlights: • Natural gas and renewable electricity can be viewed as complements. • We model hybrid natural gas and renewable electricity systems at the hourly level. • We incorporate variable renewable power output and uncertain natural gas prices. • Hybrid natural gas and renewable electricity systems can be valuable investments.

  19. Valuing and timing R and D using a real options pricing framework; including an application to the development of Lunar Helium-3 fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, S.H.

    1992-01-01

    This dissertation uses the real options framework to study the valuation and optimal investment policies for R and D projects. The models developed integrate and extend the literature by taking into account the unique characteristics of such projects including uncertain investment in R and D, time-to-build, and multiple investment opportunities. The models were developed to examine the optimal R and D investment policy for the Lunar Helium-3 fusion project but have general applicability. Models are development which model R and D investment as an information gathering process where R and D investment remaining changes as investment is expended. The value of the project increased as the variance of required investment increases. An extension of this model combines a stochastic benefit with stochastic investment. Both the value of the R and D project and the region prescribing continued investment increased. The policy implications are significant: When uncertainty of R and D investment is ignored, the value of the project is underestimated and a tendency toward underinvestment in R and D will result; the existence of uncertainty in R and D investment will cause R and D projects to experience larger declines in value before discontinuation of investment. The model combining stochastic investment with the stochastic benefit is applied to the Lunar Helium-3 fusion project. Investment in fusion should continue at the maximum level of $1 billion annually given current levels of costs of alternative fuels and the perceived uncertainty of R and D investment in the project. A model is developed to examine the valuation and optimal split of funding between R and D projects when there are two competing new technologies. Without interaction between research expenditures and benefits across technologies, the optimal investment strategy is to invest in one or the other technology or neither. The multiple technology model is applied to analyze competing R and D projects, namely

  20. Using real objects to teach about climate change: an ethnographic perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, L.; Perin, S.; Coats, V.; Sturm, M.

    2017-12-01

    Informal educators frequently use real objects to connect visitors with science content that can otherwise seem abstract. Our NSF-funded project, "Hot Times in Cold Places," leverages this premise to teach about climate change through real objects associated with the nation's only permafrost tunnel, located in Fox, Alaska. We posit that touching real ice, holding Pleistocene bones, and seeing ice wedges in context allows learners to understand climate change in a direct and visceral manner. We are conducting ethnographic research to understand visitor experience at both the tunnel itself and at a permafrost museum exhibit that we are creating as part of the project. Research questions include: 1) What is the nature of visitor talk with respect to explanations about permafrost, tipping points, climate change, and geological time? 2) How do attributes of "realness" (scale, resolution, uniqueness, history and adherence to an original) affect visitor's experience of objects, as perceived through the senses and emotions? We use naturalistic observation, interviews, and videotaping to answer these questions. Analysis focuses on child-to-child talk, reciprocal talk between educator and child, and reciprocal talk between parent and child. Our results elucidate the value of real, vs. replicated and virtual objects, in informal learning, especially in the context of climate change education. An understanding of these factors can help informal learning educators make informed choices about program and exhibit design.

  1. AEGIS and Ship Self-Defense System (SSDS) Platforms: Using KVA Analysis, Risk Simulation and Strategic Real Options to Assess Operational Effectiveness

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Uchytil, Joseph; Housel, Thomas; Hom, Sandra; Mun, Johnathan; Tarantino, Eric

    2006-01-01

    .... The results of the research demonstrated that the leave and layer approach for incrementally replacing AEGIS system modules was the most valuable strategic option, providing the highest return...

  2. Nominal and real convergence in the new member states (longer-term perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vásáry, V.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The advancement of nominal and real convergence in the process of EU adaptation is of special importance. The paper studies the main factors of convergence processes in detail. It pays special attention to the analysis of catch-up processes. The paper uses the concepts of the growth theories in order to describe the real convergence processes. Besides the supply side approach (growth accounting, production function, it focuses highly on the demand side and the factors playing an important role in the newest growth theories (trade, macroeconomic policies, institutional system etc..

  3. Real-time embedded systems open-source operating systems perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Bertolotti, Ivan Cibrario

    2012-01-01

    From the Foreword: "!the presentation of real-time scheduling is probably the best in terms of clarity I have ever read in the professional literature. Easy to understand, which is important for busy professionals keen to acquire (or refresh) new knowledge without being bogged down in a convoluted narrative and an excessive detail overload. The authors managed to largely avoid theoretical-only presentation of the subject, which frequently affects books on operating systems. ! an indispensable [resource] to gain a thorough understanding of the real-time systems from the operating systems p

  4. An Estimation of Profitability of Investment Projects in The Oil and Gas Industry Using Real Options Theory / Ocena Opłacalności Projektów Inwestycyjnych W Przemyśle Naftowym Z Wykorzystaniem Teorii Opcji Realnych

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosowski, Piotr; Stopa, Jerzy

    2012-11-01

    Paper discusses issues relating to the valuation of investment efficiency in the oil and gas industry using a real options theory. The example of investment pricing using real options was depicted and it was confronted with the analysis executed with the use of traditional methods. Indicators commonly used to evaluate profitability of investment projects, based on a discounted cash flow method, have a few significant drawbacks, the most meaningful of which is staticity which means that any changes resulting from a decision process during the time of investment cannot be taken into consideration. In accordance with a methodology that is currently used, investment projects are analysed in a way that all the key decisions are made at the beginning and are irreversible. This approach assumes, that all the cash flows are specified and does not let the fact that during the time of investment there may appear new information, which could change its original form. What is also not analysed is the possibility of readjustment, due to staff managment's decisions, to the current market conditions, by expanding, speeding up/slowing down, abandoning or changing an outline of the undertaking. In result, traditional methods of investment projects valuation may lead to taking wrong decisions, e.g. giving up an owned exploitation licence or untimely liquidation of boreholes, which seem to be unprofitable. Due to all the above-mentioned there appears the necessity of finding some other methods which would let one make real and adequate estimations about investments in a petroleum industry especially when it comes to unconventional resources extraction. One of the methods which has been recently getting more and more approval in a world petroleum economics, is a real options pricing method. A real option is a right (but not an obligation) to make a decision connected with an investment in a specified time or time interval. According to the method a static model of pricing using DCF is

  5. GASIFICACIÓN DE CARBÓN PARA GENERACIÓN DE ENERGÍA ELÉCTRICA: ANÁLISIS CON VALORACIÓN DE OPCIONES REALES COAL GASIFICATION FOR POWER GENERATION: ANALYSIS WITH REAL OPTIONS VALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Concha A

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Se evalúa económicamente la utilización de la tecnología de gasificación de carbón en la generación de energía eléctrica, utilizando información secundaria y el enfoque de valoración de opciones reales mediante árboles binomiales de 2 variables. Se analiza el caso de adaptar una central existente de gas natural de ciclo combinado (NGCC para la utilización de syngas a partir de carbón; en un segundo caso, se evalúa la instalación de una nueva central termoeléctrica de carbón pulverizado (PC o alternativamente una central de gasificación de carbón integrada a ciclo combinado (IGCC. En este último caso, se evalúa la opción de "switching" de combustible. Para los precios de los combustibles se emplean modelos de Movimiento Browniano Geométrico No Homogéneo (IGBM y en ambos casos estudiados se analiza en 2 escenarios de precios, incluyendo análisis de sensibilidad. Respecto al primer caso, la adaptación a syngas de una planta NGCC es conveniente económicamente, teniendo el proyecto una alta sensibilidad respecto a la eficiencia. La sensibilidad a la inversión no es significativa, como tampoco a los gastos de operación. Respecto al segundo caso, la conveniencia económica de la planta IGCC frente a la planta PC no es clara en los escenarios de precios considerados. Pero analizada en diversas combinaciones de precios, la planta IGCC de operación flexible alternando dos combustibles puede lograr ventajas económicas. Respecto a la sensibilidad, se repiten las conclusiones mencionadas para el primer caso.The use of coal gasification technology in the generation of electric power is evaluated economically. Secondary information and valuation of real options approach is used, with two variables binomial lattices. First, the retrofit of an existing natural gas combined cycle plant (NGCC for the utilization of syngas from coal is analyzed; on the second case, an economical evaluation is realized for to compare a new Pulverized

  6. Potential impact of (CET) carbon emissions trading on China's power sector: A perspective from different allowance allocation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cong, Rong-Gang; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2010-01-01

    In Copenhagen climate conference China government promised that China would cut down carbon intensity 40-45% from 2005 by 2020. CET (carbon emissions trading) is an effective tool to reduce emissions. But because CET is not fully implemented in China up to now, how to design it and its potential impact are unknown to us. This paper studies the potential impact of introduction of CET on China's power sector and discusses the impact of different allocation options of allowances. Agent-based modeling is one appealing new methodology that has the potential to overcome some shortcomings of traditional methods. We establish an agent-based model, CETICEM (CET Introduced China Electricity Market), of introduction of CET to China. In CETICEM, six types of agents and two markets are modeled. We find that: (1) CET internalizes environment cost; increases the average electricity price by 12%; and transfers carbon price volatility to the electricity market, increasing electricity price volatility by 4%. (2) CET influences the relative cost of different power generation technologies through the carbon price, significantly increasing the proportion of environmentally friendly technologies; expensive solar power generation in particular develops significantly, with final proportion increasing by 14%. (3) Emission-based allocation brings about both higher electricity and carbon prices than by output-based allocation which encourages producers to be environmentally friendly. Therefore, output-based allocation would be more conducive to reducing emissions in the Chinese power sector. (author)

  7. Deception Detection: The Relationship of Levels of Trust and Perspective Taking in Real-Time Online and Offline Communication Environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friend, Catherine; Fox Hamilton, Nicola

    2016-09-01

    Where humans have been found to detect lies or deception only at the rate of chance in offline face-to-face communication (F2F), computer-mediated communication (CMC) online can elicit higher rates of trust and sharing of personal information than F2F. How do levels of trust and empathetic personality traits like perspective taking (PT) relate to deception detection in real-time CMC compared to F2F? A between groups correlational design (N = 40) demonstrated that, through a paired deceptive conversation task with confederates, levels of participant trust could predict accurate detection online but not offline. Second, participant PT abilities could not predict accurate detection in either conversation medium. Finally, this study found that conversation medium also had no effect on deception detection. This study finds support for the effects of the Truth Bias and online disinhibition in deception, and further implications in law enforcement are discussed.

  8. Manager’s Flexibility & Cancellation Option: Insights of a Case Study in the Latin American Oil Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur Ridolfo Neto

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This article focused on the main business insights of the use of Real Options valuation analysis in the eyes of a finance professional. It used a case study of an investment opportunity in the oil and gas field services industry in Latin America to discuss the methodology implementation and its insights. As a secondary objective, it discussed the insights and options embedded in this investment opportunity.Methodology: The investment opportunity was examined using the Real Options Analysis (ROA framework and the results compared to the traditional methodology of Net Present Value. The valuation technique was performed as if it had been applied at the time the project was approved.Findings: The most important of Real Option valuation is not the results, but how one arrives at them. After the project value is calculated and the project approved or not, the Real Option valuation requires and supports the monitoring of the project. By understanding how the options are created, managers can make better decisions about the project after it was approved.Practical implications: A relevant contribution from the study was the discussion, as a practitioner, of the methodology implementation in a real world corporation. Originality & value: The case study evaluated two types of real options: first, the effect of an option to cancel a contract that was assessed from the perspective of the client contracting the project; and second, the option to abandon and defer, from the perspective of the company that will perform the investment to provide the services. By incorporating the cost of the put option that the company puts forth for the client (cancellation option it reduces the project value by giving flexibility to its clients.

  9. The potential of decentralized power-to-heat as a flexibility option for the german electricity system: A microeconomic perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrlich, Lars G.; Klamka, Jonas; Wolf, André

    2015-01-01

    One fundamental challenge of the German energy transition for the electricity market is the growing imbalance between inflexible generation and generally inelastic load. Against this background, we investigate the future potential of decentralized Power-to-Heat (P2H) as an additional demand-side flexibility option for the German electricity system. Precisely, we analyze the case of hybrid systems, where conventional gas and oil condensing boiler systems are equipped with an electric heating rod. In contrast to previous approaches, we set our focus on the economic incentives at household level: only if the switch to a P2H-hybrid system can reduce individual heating expenses significantly, a considerable number of these systems will be installed. For this purpose, we implemented an integrated approach combining three distinct simulation modules. First, a stochastic simulation of the electricity spot market prices in 2020 was conducted. Second, average heat load profiles were generated based on a standard bottom-up analysis. Both results were then fed into an optimization model calculating the cost-minimizing paths of heat generation at household level during the year 2020. The simulated annual savings prove modest as long as household electricity prices are not heavily reduced through political influence. - Highlights: • We investigate the future potential of decentralized Power-to-Heat. • Focus lies on hybrid Power-to-Heat systems with condensing gas or oil boiler. • We analyze the economic incentives at household level. • Simulation of heat load profiles and spot prices in 2020. • Savings prove modest as long as household electricity prices are not heavily reduced.

  10. A dynamical systems perspective for a real-time response to a marine oil spill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Garrido, V J; Ramos, A; Mancho, A M; Coca, J; Wiggins, S

    2016-11-15

    This paper discusses the combined use of tools from dynamical systems theory and remote sensing techniques and shows how they are effective instruments which may greatly contribute to the decision making protocols of the emergency services for the real-time management of oil spills. This work presents the successful interplay of these techniques for a recent situation, the sinking of the Oleg Naydenov fishing ship that took place in Spain, close to the Canary Islands, in April 2015. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. LHCb full-detector real-time alignment and calibration: latest developments and perspective

    CERN Multimedia

    Dziurda, Agnieszka

    2018-01-01

    A key ingredient of the data taking strategy used by the LHCb experiment at CERN in Run 2 is the novel real-time detector alignment and calibration. Data collected at the start of the fill are processed within minutes and used to update the alignment, while the calibration constants are evaluated hourly. This is one of the key elements which allow the reconstruction quality of the software trigger in Run-II to be as good as the offline quality of Run 1. The most recent developments of the real-time alignment and calibration paradigm enable the fully automated updates of the RICH detectors' mirror alignment and a novel calibration of the calorimeter systems. Both evolutions improve the particle identification performance stability resulting in higher purity selections. The latter leads also to an improvement in the energy measurement of neutral particles, resulting in a 15% better mass resolution of radiative b-hadron decays. A large variety of improvements has been explored for the last year of Run 2 data tak...

  12. Design Of Real-Time Implementable Distributed Suboptimal Control: An LQR Perspective

    KAUST Repository

    Jaleel, Hassan

    2017-09-29

    We propose a framework for multiagent systems in which the agents compute their control actions in real time, based on local information only. The novelty of the proposed framework is that the process of computing a suboptimal control action is divided into two phases: an offline phase and an online phase. In the offline phase, an approximate problem is formulated with a cost function that is close to the optimal cost in some sense and is distributed, i.e., the costs of non-neighboring nodes are not coupled. This phase is centralized and is completed before the deployment of the system. In the online phase, the approximate problem is solved in real time by implementing any efficient distributed optimization algorithm. To quantify the performance loss, we derive upper bounds for the maximum error between the optimal performance and the performance under the proposed framework. Finally, the proposed framework is applied to an example setup in which a team of mobile nodes is assigned the task of establishing a communication link between two base stations with minimum energy consumption. We show through simulations that the performance under the proposed framework is close to the optimal performance and the suboptimal policy can be efficiently implemented online.

  13. Rehabilitation Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Speech Pathology Occupational Therapy Art Therapy Recreational therapy Neuropsychology Home Care Options Advanced Care Planning Palliative Care ... Speech Pathology Occupational Therapy Art Therapy Recreational therapy Neuropsychology Home Care Options Advanced Care Planning Palliative Care ...

  14. Subjects and Objects of the Embodied Gaze: Abbas Kiarostami and the Real of the Individual Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gyenge Zsolt

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available It is widely accepted that Abbas Kiarostami’s cinema revolves around the representation of the gaze. Many critics argue that he should be considered a late modernist who repeats the self-reflexive gestures of modernist European cinema decades after they were first introduced. The present paper will contradict this assertion by investigating the problematic of the Kiarostamian gaze and analyzing the perceptual side of the act of looking. I will argue that instead of focusing on the gaze of the spectator directed towards the filmic image, he exposes a gaze that is fully integrated into the reality to be captured on film. The second part of the paper will explain this by linking the concept of gaze to the Lacanian concept of the order of the Real. Finally, I will contextualize all this by discussing the Iranian director’s position between Eastern and Western traditions of representation.

  15. A comparative study on real lab and simulation lab in communication engineering from students' perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balakrishnan, B.; Woods, P. C.

    2013-05-01

    Over the years, rapid development in computer technology has engendered simulation-based laboratory (lab) in addition to the traditional hands-on (physical) lab. Many higher education institutions adopt simulation lab, replacing some existing physical lab experiments. The creation of new systems for conducting engineering lab activities has raised concerns among educators on the merits and shortcomings of both physical and simulation labs; at the same time, many arguments have been raised on the differences of both labs. Investigating the effectiveness of both labs is complicated, as there are multiple factors that should be considered. In view of this challenge, a study on students' perspectives on their experience related to key aspects on engineering laboratory exercise was conducted. In this study, the Visual Auditory Read and Kinetic model was utilised to measure the students' cognitive styles. The investigation was done through a survey among participants from Multimedia University, Malaysia. The findings revealed that there are significant differences for most of the aspects in physical and simulation labs.

  16. Source modeling and inversion with near real-time GPS: a GITEWS perspective for Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babeyko, A. Y.; Hoechner, A.; Sobolev, S. V.

    2010-07-01

    We present the GITEWS approach to source modeling for the tsunami early warning in Indonesia. Near-field tsunami implies special requirements to both warning time and details of source characterization. To meet these requirements, we employ geophysical and geological information to predefine a maximum number of rupture parameters. We discretize the tsunamigenic Sunda plate interface into an ordered grid of patches (150×25) and employ the concept of Green's functions for forward and inverse rupture modeling. Rupture Generator, a forward modeling tool, additionally employs different scaling laws and slip shape functions to construct physically reasonable source models using basic seismic information only (magnitude and epicenter location). GITEWS runs a library of semi- and fully-synthetic scenarios to be extensively employed by system testing as well as by warning center personnel teaching and training. Near real-time GPS observations are a very valuable complement to the local tsunami warning system. Their inversion provides quick (within a few minutes on an event) estimation of the earthquake magnitude, rupture position and, in case of sufficient station coverage, details of slip distribution.

  17. Effectiveness of Palivizumab in Preventing RSV Hospitalization in High Risk Children: A Real-World Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nusrat Homaira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infection with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV is one of the major causes globally of childhood respiratory morbidity and hospitalization. Palivizumab, a humanized monoclonal antibody, has been recommended for high risk infants to prevent severe RSV-associated respiratory illness. This recommendation is based on evidence of efficacy when used under clinical trial conditions. However the real-world effectiveness of palivizumab outside of clinical trials among different patient populations is not well established. We performed a systematic review focusing on postlicensure observational studies of the protective effect of palivizumab prophylaxis for reducing RSV-associated hospitalizations in infants and children at high risk of severe infection. We searched studies published in English between 1 January 1999 and August 2013 and identified 420 articles, of which 20 met the inclusion criteria. This review supports the recommended use of palivizumab for reducing RSV-associated hospitalization rates in premature infants born at gestational age < 33 weeks and in children with chronic lung and heart diseases. Data are limited to allow commenting on the protective effect of palivizumab among other high risk children, including those with Down syndrome, cystic fibrosis, and haematological malignancy, indicating further research is warranted in these groups.

  18. A real options model to assess the role of flexibility in forestry and agroforestry adoption and disadoption in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory E. Frey; D. Evan Mercer; Frederick W. Cubbage; Robert C. Abt

    2013-01-01

    Efforts to restore the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley’s forests have not achieved desired levels of ecosystem services production.We examined how the variability of returns and the flexibility to change or postpone decisions (option value) affects the economic potential of forestry and agroforestry systems to keep private land in production while still providing...

  19. 32 CFR 644.168 - Exercise of options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Exercise of options. 644.168 Section 644.168... ESTATE HANDBOOK Acquisition Procurement of Options Prior to Real Estate Directives (military) § 644.168 Exercise of options. Upon issuance of a real estate directive for acquisition of the optioned real property...

  20. Declassification, an actual operating materials management option in Cofrentes; La descalsificacion, una opcion operativa real de gestion de materiales en C. N. Cofrentes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Bermejo, R.; Diego compadre, J. L. de; Lopez Alvarez, L.; Analya Lazaro, M.

    2014-07-01

    Methods and procedures developed for declassification feature a series of methodological options and innovative technology, including the systematic use of the spatial random variable named index of Residual activity, level specific factors for declassification determined empirically for each unit of characterization and contrasts of hypothesis not parametric which are used in the demonstration of compliance of the levels of declassification Decision rules authorized by the CSN. (Author)

  1. The option to expand a project: its assessment with the binomial options pricing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    Full Text Available Traditional methods of investment appraisal, like the Net Present Value, are not able to include the value of the operational flexibility of the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to expand, are assumed to be included in the project information in addition to the expected cash flows. Thus, to calculate the total value of the project, we are going to apply the methodology of the Net Present Value to the different scenarios derived from the existence of the real option to expand. Taking into account the analogy between real and financial options, the value of including an option to expand is explored by using the binomial options pricing model. In this way, estimating the value of the option to expand is a tool which facilitates the control of the uncertainty element implicit in the project. Keywords: Real options, Option to expand, Binomial options pricing model, Investment project appraisal

  2. Expensing options solves nothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahlman, William A

    2002-12-01

    The use of stock options for executive compensation has become a lightning rod for public anger, and it's easy to see why. Many top executives grew hugely rich on the back of the gains they made on their options, profits they've been able to keep even as the value they were supposed to create disappeared. The supposed scam works like this: Current accounting regulations let companies ignore the cost of option grants on their income statements, so they can award valuable option packages without affecting reported earnings. Not charging the cost of the grants supposedly leads to overstated earnings, which purportedly translate into unrealistically high share prices, permitting top executives to realize big gains when they exercise their options. If an accounting anomaly is the problem, then the solution seems obvious: Write off executive share options against the current year's revenues. The trouble is, Sahlman writes, expensing option grants won't give us a more accurate view of earnings, won't add any information not already included in the financial statements, and won't even lead to equal treatment of different forms of executive pay. Far worse, expensing evades the real issue, which is whether compensation (options and other-wise) does what it's supposed to do--namely, help a company recruit, retain, and provide the right people with appropriate performance incentives. Any performance-based compensation system has the potential to encourage cheating. Only ethical management, sensible governance, adequate internal control systems, and comprehensive disclosure will save the investor from disaster. If, Sahlman warns, we pass laws that require the expensing of options, thinking that's fixed the fundamental flaws in corporate America's accounting, we will have missed a golden opportunity to focus on the much more extensive defects in the present system.

  3. Budget Options

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2000-01-01

    This volume-part of the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) annual report to the House and Senate Committees on the Budget-is intended to help inform policymakers about options for the federal budget...

  4. Vulvar and vaginal atrophy in postmenopausal women: findings from the REVIVE (REal Women's VIews of Treatment Options for Menopausal Vaginal ChangEs) survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingsberg, Sheryl A; Wysocki, Susan; Magnus, Leslie; Krychman, Michael L

    2013-07-01

    Vulvar and vaginal atrophy (VVA) is a chronic medical condition experienced by many postmenopausal women. Symptoms include dyspareunia (pain with intercourse), vaginal dryness, and irritation and may affect sexual activities, relationships, and activities of daily life. The aim of this study is to characterize postmenopausal women's experience with and perception of VVA symptoms, interactions with healthcare professionals (HCPs), and available treatment options. An online survey was conducted in the United States in women from KnowledgePanel(®) , a 56,000-member probability-selected Internet panel projectable to the overall US population. Altogether, 3,046 postmenopausal women with VVA symptoms (the largest US cohort of recent surveys) responded to questions about their knowledge of VVA, impact of symptoms on their activities, communication with HCPs, and use of available treatments. Percent is calculated as the ratio of response over total responding for each question for all and stratified participants. The most common VVA symptoms were dryness (55% of participants), dyspareunia (44%), and irritation (37%). VVA symptoms affected enjoyment of sex in 59% of participants. Additionally, interference with sleep, general enjoyment of life, and temperament were reported by 24%, 23%, and 23% of participants, respectively. Few women attributed symptoms to menopause (24%) or hormonal changes (12%). Of all participants, 56% had ever discussed VVA symptoms with an HCP and 40% currently used VVA-specific topical treatments (vaginal over-the-counter [OTC] products [29%] and vaginal prescription therapies [11%]). Of those who had discussed symptoms with an HCP, 62% used OTC products. Insufficient symptom relief and inconvenience were cited as major limitations of OTC products and concerns about side effects and cancer risk limited use of topical vaginal prescription therapies. VVA symptoms are common in postmenopausal women. Significant barriers to treatment include lack of

  5. Perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kussmann, Martin; Morine, Melissa J; Hager, Jörg

    2013-01-01

    We review here the status of human type 2 diabetes studies from a genetic, epidemiological, and clinical (intervention) perspective. Most studies limit analyses to one or a few omic technologies providing data of components of physiological processes. Since all chronic diseases are multifactorial...... at different time points along this longitudinal investigation are performed with a comprehensive set of omics platforms. These data sets are generated in a biological context, rather than biochemical compound class-driven manner, which we term "systems omics."...

  6. Una aplicación de opciones reales a la valoración de contratos de leasing An application of real options to the assessment of leasing contracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica Andrea Arango Arango

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo es el resultado de una investigación que desarrolla un modelo para la determinación del canon de arrendamiento en un contrato de leasing sobre vehículos, incluyendo la valoración de la opción de compra implícita en éste. Para realizar esta valoración se utilizaron como base los modelos propuestos por Giaccotto et al. [1] y Gamba y Rigon [2] (en tres marcas de vehículos en Colombia para el período comprendido entre Enero de 2004 y Diciembre de 2007. Se identificó el proceso ARMA de las series de los retornos de los precios de los vehículos. Se realizaron pruebas para identificar posibles efectos ARCH en las series de los retornos de los precios de los vehículos analizados. La estimación del valor de la opción de compra del vehículo al finalizar el contrato de leasing se realiza mediante la implementación del modelo de black-scholes y de simulación Monte Carlo.This article is the result of a research that develops a model related to the determination of the rent on a leasing vehicle contract and the valuation of the call option that gives the lessee the right but not the obligation to buy the used car at the end of the contract at a specified price. We used models proposed by [1] and by [2] in three brands of vehicles in Colombia for the period between January of 2004 and December of 2007. The analysis of the time series of returns of the prices vehicles displayed an ARMA process. We also developed further tests to identify possible ARCH effects in the series of returns of prices of the vehicles analyzed. The estimation of the value of the option to purchase the vehicle at the end of the leasing contract is done by the implementation of the model of Black Scholes and Montecarlo Simulation.

  7. Doing Poorly: The Real Income of American Children in a Comparative Perspective. Luxembourg Income Study. Working Paper No. 127.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainwater, Lee; Smeeding, Timothy M.

    This paper investigates the real living standards and poverty status of U.S. children in the 1990s compared to the children in 17 other nations, including Europe, Scandinavia, Canada, and Australia. The analysis is based on the Luxembourg Income Study database. It was found that American children have lower real spendable income than do comparable…

  8. "It's a Hard Line to Walk": Black Non-Binary Trans* Collegians' Perspectives on Passing, Realness, and Trans*-Normativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolazzo, Z.

    2016-01-01

    Being labeled as "abnormal, or deviant, or not being one of the rest of us" has real effects for one's life chances. Trans* people are one such group who have continually been codified as abnormal, abject, weird, deceptive, and social pariahs. The purpose of the following study was to explore how the concepts of passing, realness, and…

  9. Mixed waste management options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, C.B.; Kirner, N.P.

    1992-01-01

    Currently, limited storage and treatment capacity exists for commercial mixed waste streams. No commercial mixed waste disposal is available, and it has been estimated that if and when commercial mixed waste disposal becomes available, the costs will be high. If high disposal fees are imposed, generators may be willing to apply extraordinary treatment or regulatory approaches to properly dispose of their mixed waste. This paper explores the feasibility of several waste management scenarios and management options. Existing data on commercially generated mixed waste streams are used to identify the realm of mixed waste known to be generated. Each waste stream is evaluated from both a regulatory and technical perspective in order to convert the waste into a strictly low-level radioactive or a hazardous waste. Alternative regulatory approaches evaluated in this paper include a delisting petition) no migration petition) and a treatability variance. For each waste stream, potentially available treatment options are identified that could lead to these variances. Waste minimization methodology and storage for decay are also considered. Economic feasibility of each option is discussed broadly. Another option for mixed waste management that is being explored is the feasibility of Department of Energy (DOE) accepting commercial mixed waste for treatment, storage, and disposal. A study has been completed that analyzes DOE treatment capacity in comparison with commercial mixed waste streams. (author)

  10. Envolvimento paterno durante o nascimento dos filhos: pai "real" e "ideal" na perspectiva materna Paternal involvement during their children's birth: mother's perspective of 'real' and 'ideal' father

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Auxiliadora Dessen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available O pai é a fonte de apoio materno mais importante durante a transição decorrente do nascimento de filhos. Este estudo objetiva descrever a percepção de 45 mulheres grávidas e 42 mães com bebês de até seis meses sobre a participação e apoio paterno, durante a gestação e nascimento de filhos. A coleta de dados consistiu da aplicação, às mães, de um questionário de caracterização do sistema familiar e de uma entrevista semiestruturada, visando obter informações sobre o pai "real" e o "ideal". Os resultados mostram que, apesar de os pais serem percebidos como pouco participativos, as mães estavam satisfeitas com o seu envolvimento. Os dados sugerem que é necessário estimular a participação do pai, por ocasião do nascimento de filhos.The father is a major figure on mother's support network during childbirth transition. This study aims to report father's participation and support during the pregnancy and the birth of their children, according to the point of view of 45 pregnant women and 42 women with six-month-old children. Data was collected through the administration of a family questionnaire and a semi-structured interview answered by the mothers in order to get information about the "real" and the "ideal" father. The results show that, although the mothers were satisfied with the fathers' role in family life, they thought fathers were not as participative as they should be. Data suggest that it is necessary to stimulate father's participation during childbirth.

  11. VALORACIÓN DEL RIESGO FINANCIERO (CFAR EN LAS EPS A TRAVÉS DE OPCIONES REALES: UNA APLICACIÓN AL NIVEL DE ATENCIÓN IV Financial Risk Valuation (CFARin EPS's through Real Options: An Application at the IV Assistance Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica A. Arango Arango

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available El número de pacientes tratados por insuficiencia renal en Colombia es cada vez mayor; por esta razón conocer los costos asociados a esta enfermedad es una necesidad manifiesta de las Entidades Promotoras de Salud con el fin de garantizar la estabilidad del Sistema de Seguridad Social en Salud. Este trabajo evalúa financieramente, mediante opciones reales, la posibilidad de hacer un trasplante de riñón en un paciente bajo tratamiento de insuficiencia renal y el Flujo de Caja en Riesgo al tener en cuenta esta opción. Se encontró que al hacer un análisis periódico de los costos asociados a continuar con el tratamiento, existen casos en los que es más eficiente hacer el trasplante, disminuyendo el valor presente de las erogaciones del paciente, mejorando el flujo de caja en riesgo y controlando los gastos futuros de la entidad que lo atiende.Number of patients treated for renal failure in Colombia is increasingly high; for this reason, knowing the costs associated to this disease is a clear need for Health Promoting Entities with the purpose of assuring stability of the Health Social Security System. Through real options, this article is a financial evaluation of the possibility of conducting a kidney transplant in a patient being under a renal failure treatment and the cash flow at risk when having this as an option. It was found that when a periodical analysis of costs associated to continuation of treatment is made, there are cases where transplant is a more efficient option to be executed since the present value of the patient's expenses is decreased, thus improving the cash flow at risk and controlling future expenses of the entity treating the patient.

  12. Energy exotic options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaminski, V.; Gibner, S.; Pinnamaneni, K.

    1999-01-01

    This chapter with 88 references focuses on the use of exotic options to control exposure to energy prices. Exotic options are defined, and the conversion of a standard option into an exotic option and pricing models are examined. Pricing and hedging exotic options, path-dependent options, multi-commodity options, options on the minimum-or-maximum of two commodities, compound options, digital options, hybrid and complex structures, and natural gas daily options are described. Formulas for option pricing for vanilla, barrier, compound, options on minimum or maximum of two assets, and look back options are given in an appendix

  13. Option valuation for energy issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostertag, K.; Llerena, P.; Richard, A.

    2004-01-01

    In many industrial and economic situations, decision processes, both individual and collective, have to simultaneously face uncertainty and irreversibility of some kind. This is particularly valid for energy choices if they are linked to technological alternatives. The purpose of this book is to highlight specific aspects of these situations. This is done from the particular perspective of option valuation. The contributions to this book grew out of an international workshop on ''Option valuation in energy and environmental issues'' held at the Fraunhofer ISI in February 2003. This workshop brought together reseachers from energy economics, but also researchers working on option valuation in other empirical fields or with a more theoretical perspective. This is reflected in the organisation of the book, which starts with some theory-oriented contributions and subsequently presents more applied contributions in the field of energy economics with an extension to water infrastructure in the annex. (orig.)

  14. A technique for choosing an option for SDH network upgrade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Bulanov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapidly developing data transmission technologies result in making the network equipment modernization inevitable. There are various options to upgrade the SDH networks, for example, by increasing the capacity of network overloaded sites, the entire network capacity by replacement of the equipment or by creation of a parallel network, by changing the network structure with the organization of multilevel hierarchy of a network, etc. All options vary in a diversity of parameters starting with the solution cost and ending with the labor intensiveness of their realization. Thus, there are no certain standard approaches to the rules to choose an option for the network development. The article offers the technique for choosing the SHD network upgrade based on method of expert evaluations using as a tool the software complex that allows us to have quickly the quantitative characteristics of proposed network option. The technique is as follows:1. Forming a perspective matrix of services inclination to the SDH networks.2. Developing the several possible options for a network modernization.3. Formation of the list of criteria and a definition of indicators to characterize them by two groups, namely costs of the option implementation and arising losses; positive effect from the option introduction.4. Criteria weight coefficients purpose.5. Indicators value assessment within each criterion for each option by each expert. Rationing of the obtained values of indicators in relation to the maximum value of an indicator among all options.6. Calculating the integrated indicators of for each option by criteria groups.7. Creating a set of Pareto by drawing two criteria groups of points, which correspond to all options in the system of coordinates on the plane. Option choice.In implementation of point 2 the indicators derivation owing to software complex plays a key role. This complex should produce a structure of the network equipment, types of multiplexer sections

  15. Options theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markland, J.T.

    1992-01-01

    Techniques used in conventional project appraisal are mathematically very simple in comparison to those used in reservoir modelling, and in the geosciences. Clearly it would be possible to value assets in mathematically more sophisticated ways if it were meaningful and worthwhile so to do. The DCf approach in common use has recognized limitations; the inability to select a meaningful discount rate being particularly significant. Financial Theory has advanced enormously over the last few years, along with computational techniques, and methods are beginning to appear which may change the way we do project evaluations in practice. The starting point for all of this was a paper by Black and Scholes, which asserts that almost all corporate liabilities can be viewed as options of varying degrees of complexity. Although the financial presentation may be unfamiliar to engineers and geoscientists, some of the concepts used will not be. This paper outlines, in plain English, the basis of option pricing theory for assessing the market value of a project. it also attempts to assess the future role of this type of approach in practical Petroleum Exploration and Engineering economics. Reference is made to relevant published Natural Resource literature

  16. Two barriers to realizing the benefits of biometrics: a chain perspective on biometrics and identity fraud as biometrics' real challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grijpink, Jan

    2004-06-01

    Along at least twelve dimensions biometric systems might vary. We need to exploit this variety to manoeuvre biometrics into place to be able to realise its social potential. Subsequently, two perspectives on biometrics are proposed revealing that biometrics will probably be ineffective in combating identity fraud, organised crime and terrorism: (1) the value chain perspective explains the first barrier: our strong preference for large scale biometric systems for general compulsory use. These biometric systems cause successful infringements to spread unnoticed. A biometric system will only function adequately if biometrics is indispensable for solving the dominant chain problem. Multi-chain use of biometrics takes it beyond the boundaries of good manageability. (2) the identity fraud perspective exposes the second barrier: our traditional approach to identity verification. We focus on identity documents, neglecting the person and the situation involved. Moreover, western legal cultures have made identity verification procedures known, transparent, uniform and predictable. Thus, we have developed a blind spot to identity fraud. Biometrics provides good potential to better checking persons, but will probably be used to enhance identity documents. Biometrics will only pay off if it confronts the identity fraudster with less predictable verification processes and more risks of his identity fraud being spotted. Standardised large scale applications of biometrics for general compulsory use without countervailing measures will probably produce the reverse. This contribution tentatively presents a few headlines for an overall biometrics strategy that could better resist identity fraud.

  17. Strategic Investment: Real Options and Games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.T.J. Smit (Han); L. Trigeorgis (Lenos)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractCorporate finance and corporate strategy have long been seen as different sides of the same coin. Though both focus on the same broad problem, investment decision-making, the gap between the two sides--and between theory and practice--remains embarrassingly large. This book synthesizes

  18. Evaluation of capital investment in thermoelectric generation projects in the Brazilian electric sector using the real options theory; Avaliacao de investimento de capital em projetos de geracao termoeletrica no setor eletrico brasileiro usando teoria das opcoes reais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castro, Alessandro de Lima

    2000-04-01

    In the Brazilian Electric System about 92% of the generated electricity is of hydraulic origin. Today the system is operating practically in the limit of your capacity. Solutions of short time to make possible the expansion of the offer of electricity generation go by the installation of cycle combining thermal using natural gas as fuel. In this dissertation, it was used the real options theory to evaluate generation assets in the Brazilian electricity sector. In Brazil, central operator dispatches a flexible thermal when the electricity spot price is larger than the operation costs. The operation decision is like an European call, where underlying asset is the electricity and the strike price is the operation cost. The value of the capacity is the sum of all decisions to operate the thermal unit, in the remaining life of unit. It was used Monte Carlo Simulation and Dynamic Programming to evaluate this model. The problem is divided in two parts. In the first part, the base case is fixed and evaluated and the expected NPV and project risk are calculated in function of contract level. In the second part, many sensibilities are done in relation to base case. At the end, the value of flexibility is calculated for each contract level. (author)

  19. Political-Philosophical Perspectives about the Notions of Indian, Inca, and Mestizo on the «Comentarios reales de los Incas»

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Javier Viveros Espinosa

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This essay posits certain political-philosophical perspectives on the Inca Garcilaso de la Vega’s Primera parte de los Comentarios reales de los Incas (1609. To this purpose we will develop two hermeneutical movements. The first refers to a theoretical and methodological questioning related to the notion of Indian as a discursive construction during colonial times in the Andes area. The second deploys a critical exercise grounded on the interaction between the notions of Indian, Inca, and Mestizo, which is focused on how they build alternative subjectivities. Both movements consolidate an interpretation about the Inca Garcilaso’s political-philosophical reflections, remarking his proposals of a bifurcated modern civilizational project in the New World.

  20. American options under stochastic volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chockalingam, A.; Muthuraman, K.

    2011-01-01

    The problem of pricing an American option written on an underlying asset with constant price volatility has been studied extensively in literature. Real-world data, however, demonstrate that volatility is not constant, and stochastic volatility models are used to account for dynamic volatility

  1. Real Islamic Logic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergstra, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    Four options for assigning a meaning to Islamic Logic are surveyed including a new proposal for an option named "Real Islamic Logic" (RIL). That approach to Islamic Logic should serve modern Islamic objectives in a way comparable to the functionality of Islamic Finance. The prospective role of RIL

  2. Pricing and Applications of Digital Installment Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierangelo Ciurlia

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available For its theoretical interest and strong impact on financial markets, option valuation is considered one of the cornerstones of contemporary mathematical finance. This paper specifically studies the valuation of exotic options with digital payoff and flexible payment plan. By means of the Incomplete Fourier Transform, the pricing problem is solved in order to find integral representations of the upfront price for European call and put options. Several applications in the areas of corporate finance, insurance, and real options are discussed. Finally, a new type of digital derivative named supercash option is introduced and some payment schemes are also presented.

  3. Lay Bystanders' Perspectives on What Facilitates Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Use of Automated External Defibrillators in Real Cardiac Arrests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malta Hansen, Carolina; Rosenkranz, Simone Mørk; Folke, Fredrik

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Many patients who suffer an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest will fail to receive bystander intervention (cardiopulmonary resuscitation [CPR] or defibrillation) despite widespread CPR training and the dissemination of automated external defibrillators (AEDs). We sought to investigate what...... factors encourage lay bystanders to initiate CPR and AED use in a cohort of bystanders previously trained in CPR techniques who were present at an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. METHODS AND RESULTS: One-hundred and twenty-eight semistructured qualitative interviews with CPR-trained lay bystanders...... to consecutive out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, where an AED was present were conducted (from January 2012 to April 2015, in Denmark). Purposive maximum variation sampling was used to establish the breadth of the bystander perspective. Twenty-six of the 128 interviews were chosen for further in-depth analyses...

  4. Buridan's Ass and a Menu of Options.

    OpenAIRE

    Svetlana Boyarchenko

    2005-01-01

    The goal of the paper is to study how a menu of options affects decisions of a rational agent facing uncertainty over future payoff streams. Using the real options approach, we demonstrate that multiple options not only increase the barrier which the underlying stochastic variable has to reach in order investment became optimal, but cause the investor to be inactive even when the cost of investment is vanishing. As a technical contribution, the paper suggests a robust method of solution of a ...

  5. Was it a mistake to abandon the revision clause? Assessment of entrepreneurial flexibility in the German coal mining industry on the basis of real options; War die Aufgabe der Revisionsklausel ein Fehler? Beurteilung unternehmerischer Flexibilitaet im deutschen Steinkohlebergbau auf Basis von Realoptionen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bendiek, Ansgar

    2012-07-15

    The author analyzes the decision to abandon the revision clause, i.e. to abandon entrepreneurial flexibility on the basis of the option price theory and the use of derivatives in coal trading. The focus is on subventionless continuation of coal mining. It is found that the abandoning of the revision clause will involve a loss of value of the real option of about 819 million Euros. Politicians and the coal industry are advised to revise the subventionless continuation of coal mining by the end of 2015.

  6. Efficient option valuation of single and double barrier options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Milev, Mariyan; Koleva-Petkova, Dessislava; Vladev, Veselin

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we present an implementation of pricing algorithm for single and double barrier options using Mellin transformation with Maximum Entropy Inversion and its suitability for real-world applications. A detailed analysis of the applied algorithm is accompanied by implementation in C++ that is then compared to existing solutions in terms of efficiency and computational power. We then compare the applied method with existing closed-form solutions and well known methods of pricing barrier options that are based on finite differences.

  7. Assessing the Option to Abandon an Investment Project by the Binomial Options Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Usually, traditional methods for investment project appraisal such as the net present value (hereinafter NPV do not incorporate in their values the operational flexibility offered by including a real option included in the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to abandon, are analysed as a complement to cash flow sequence which quantifies the project. In this way, by considering the existing analogy with financial options, a mathematical expression is derived by using the binomial options pricing model. This methodology provides the value of the option to abandon the project within one, two, and in general n periods. Therefore, this paper aims to be a useful tool in determining the value of the option to abandon according to its residual value, thus making easier the control of the uncertainty element within the project.

  8. Magnetic particle imaging: advancements and perspectives for real-time in vivo monitoring and image-guided therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pablico-Lansigan, Michele H.; Situ, Shu F.; Samia, Anna Cristina S.

    2013-05-01

    Magnetic particle imaging (MPI) is an emerging biomedical imaging technology that allows the direct quantitative mapping of the spatial distribution of superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles. MPI's increased sensitivity and short image acquisition times foster the creation of tomographic images with high temporal and spatial resolution. The contrast and sensitivity of MPI is envisioned to transcend those of other medical imaging modalities presently used, such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), X-ray scans, ultrasound, computed tomography (CT), positron emission tomography (PET) and single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). In this review, we present an overview of the recent advances in the rapidly developing field of MPI. We begin with a basic introduction of the fundamentals of MPI, followed by some highlights over the past decade of the evolution of strategies and approaches used to improve this new imaging technique. We also examine the optimization of iron oxide nanoparticle tracers used for imaging, underscoring the importance of size homogeneity and surface engineering. Finally, we present some future research directions for MPI, emphasizing the novel and exciting opportunities that it offers as an important tool for real-time in vivo monitoring. All these opportunities and capabilities that MPI presents are now seen as potential breakthrough innovations in timely disease diagnosis, implant monitoring, and image-guided therapeutics.

  9. Climate change mitigation options in the rural land use sector: Stakeholders’ perspectives on barriers, enablers and the role of policy in North East Scotland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feliciano, Diana; Hunter, Colin; Slee, Bill; Smith, Pete

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Farmers are mainly willing to expand the uptake of mitigation practices they already implement. • Main barriers and enablers to uptake are physical–environmental constraints and personal values. • Farmers consider that agriculture is a “special case” because their function is to produce food. • Lack of incentives is not the main barrier to the uptake of mitigation practices. • Policies should allow differentiation, and mitigation measures should be integrated with other mechanisms. - Abstract: The rural land use sector could potentially mitigate a large amount of GHG emissions. Implementation requires the engagement of farmers and other land managers. Understanding the barriers and enablers for the uptake of these practices is essential both to inform policy-makers and to achieve effective policy outreach. In Scotland, the rural land use sector is subject to a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction target of 21% by 2020 relative to 1990 levels. This study contributes to the body of research on stakeholders’ perspectives about suitability of climate change mitigation practices at the regional level. Mixed-methods were used to collect the data, namely participatory workshops with scientists and relevant stakeholders, a farmer questionnaire, and focus groups with farmers. Findings show that farmers were mainly willing to expand the uptake of mitigation practices they were already implementing because they consider these are the most cost-effective. Barriers to the implementation of mitigation practices are mainly related to physical–environmental constraints, lack of information and education and personal interests and values. Similarly, enablers are also related to physical–environmental factors and personal interests and values. Economic incentives, voluntary approaches and provision of information have been identified by workshop participants as the most favourable approaches needed to promote the uptake of technically feasible

  10. Treatment Options for Retinoblastoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other places in the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  11. Developing a made-in-Canada climate change option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lakeman, B.

    2002-01-01

    A federal paper on Kyoto options served as a basis for this presentation. The author outlines the Alberta perspective on the federal options paper: (1) Alberta is impacted inequitably under all scenarios, (2) incomplete analysis, (3) export of Canadian capital, (4) open-ended liability, and (5) options need to reflect principles developed by Premiers and conveyed to Prime Minister in February. The principles for climate change action are: shared understanding of range of real costs, informed consultation, avoid competitive disadvantage, collaboration at all levels of government, no unreasonable share of the burden, encourage the use of new technology, Canadians need to be part of climate change solution, and focus on energy conservation and efficiency. The Alberta plan of action calls for a longer time frame and consultation with Albertans. With the topic of greenhouse gases (GHG), government leadership is required in the following areas: mandatory GHG reporting program, facilitate and negotiate agreements with key sectors, develop approach to emissions trading, and continue to pursue reductions in government operations. Some of the key initiatives include technology and innovation through the Alberta Energy Research Institute (AERI), build critical mass through partnerships, focus on clean hydrocarbon development and the transition to the hydrogen economy, carbon dioxide capture and storage, aggressive energy conservation, agricultural and forestry sinks, and adaptation. The consultation strategy is described. figs

  12. User's perspective on fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ashworth, C.P.

    1976-01-01

    The need in fusion, from the electric utilities viewpoint, is for fusion to be a real option, not huge, complicated nuclear plants costing $10 billion each and requiring restructuring the energy industry to provide and use them. A course for future fusion reactor work in order to be a real option is discussed. The advantages of alternate concepts to the tokamak are presented

  13. Australian Asian Options

    OpenAIRE

    Manuel Moreno; Javier F. Navas

    2003-01-01

    We study European options on the ratio of the stock price to its average and viceversa. Some of these options are traded in the Australian Stock Exchange since 1992, thus we call them Australian Asian options. For geometric averages, we obtain closed-form expressions for option prices. For arithmetic means, we use different approximations that produce very similar results.

  14. Options with Extreme Strikes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lingjiong Zhu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this short paper, we study the asymptotics for the price of call options for very large strikes and put options for very small strikes. The stock price is assumed to follow the Black–Scholes models. We analyze European, Asian, American, Parisian and perpetual options and conclude that the tail asymptotics for these option types fall into four scenarios.

  15. Rewarding reductions, realizing results. Legal options for making compensated reduction a reality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petsonk, A. [Environmental Defense, Washington DC (United States)

    2005-07-01

    The concept of 'Compensated Reduction' (CR) offers a potentially crucial set of incentives for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from tropical deforestation. It is urgent that these incentives begin to flow as soon as possible - urgent from the perspective of limiting emissions and stabilizing GHG concentrations at a level, and in a time frame, that would avert dangerous irreversible climate change. It is urgent from the perspective of saving the world's dwindling rainforest biodiversity. And it is urgent from the social perspective of the communities that live in - and depend on - the world's rainforests. But from a legal perspective, what options are available for bringing the Compensated Reduction framework forward immediately, not only to spur capacity-building in tropical forest nations, but also to ensure that it begins to deliver, as soon as possible, real financial incentives for keeping forests standing? This chapter explores four legal options, namely, (1) allowing tropical forest nations to participate in Kyoto by joining Annex B of the Protocol; (2) amending the Marrakesh Rules to broaden the Clean Development Mechanism so that it embraces CR; (3) adopting a 'stand-alone' agreement; and (4) providing 'guaranteed carbon market access'. Under this last, hitherto unexplored option, the UNFCCC COP would take an early decision guaranteeing that developing nations that, between now and 2012, successfully reduce national rates of deforestation below a historical baseline, would receive tradable carbon credits that are fully fungible in the global carbon market after 2012. The chapter concludes by recommending that nations explore Option (4) in greater depth.

  16. The IRIS DMC: Perspectives on Real-Time Data Management and Open Access From a Large Seismological Archive: Challenges, Tools, and Quality Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, R. B.

    2007-05-01

    The IRIS Data Management Center, located in Seattle, WA, is the largest openly accessible geophysical archive in the world, and has a unique perspective on data management and operational practices that gets the most out of your network. Networks scale broad domains in time and space, from finite needs to monitor bridges and dams to national and international networks like the GSN and the FDSN that establish a baseline for global monitoring and research, the requirements that go into creating a well-tuned DMC archive treat these the same, building a collaborative network of networks that generations of users rely on and adds value to the data. Funded by the National Science Foundation through the Division of Earth Sciences, IRIS is operated through member universities and in cooperation with the USGS, and the DMS facility is a bridge between a globally distributed collaboration of seismic networks and an equally distributed network of users that demand a high standard for data quality, completeness, and ease of access. I will describe the role that a perpetual archive has in the life cycle of data, and how hosting real-time data performs a dual role of being a hub for continuous data from approximately 59 real-time networks, and distributing these (along with other data from the 40-year library of available time-series data) to researchers, while simultaneously providing shared data back to networks in real- time that benefits monitoring activities. I will describe aspects of our quality-assurance framework that are both passively and actively performed on 1100 seismic stations, generating over 6,000 channels of regularly sampled data arriving daily, that data providers can use as aids in operating their network, and users can likewise use when requesting suitable data for research purposes. The goal of the DMC is to eliminate bottlenecks in data discovery and shortening the steps leading to analysis. This includes many challenges, including keeping metadata

  17. Irregular grid methods for pricing high-dimensional American options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berridge, S.J.

    2004-01-01

    This thesis proposes and studies numerical methods for pricing high-dimensional American options; important examples being basket options, Bermudan swaptions and real options. Four new methods are presented and analysed, both in terms of their application to various test problems, and in terms of

  18. Proceedings of the Management options information seminar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This seminar was held in order to provide an opportunity to participants to broaden their knowledge concerning the numerous management options that are available when dealing with emissions generated by the electric power sector. It also represented an opportunity to gather information with regard to a host of different options to support the Electricity Project Team. The presentations centred on topics such as assessment, design and development of management options for the emissions of the electric power industry in Alberta. The legal, economic, social and environmental aspects were considered by the speakers for the options, and the perspectives included experience gained from hands on projects and initiatives. The reasons underlying the selection of options were revealed and lessons learned examined. Of the 14 presentations and the closing remarks speech, two presentations were included in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  19. Achondroplasia: Current Options and Future Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouali, Houda; Latrech, Hanane

    2015-06-01

    Achondroplasia is a human bone genetic disorder of the growth plate and is the most common form of inherited disproportionate short stature. It is inherited as an autosomal dominant disease with essentially complete penetrance. Of these most have the same point mutation in the gene for fibroblast growth factor receptor 3 (FGFR3) which is a negative regulator of bone growth. The clinical and radiological features of achondroplasia can easily be identified; they include disproportionate short stature with rhizomelic shortening, macrocephaly with frontal bossing, midface hypoplasia, lumbar hyperlordosis, and a trident hand configuration. The majority of achondroplasts have a normal intelligence, but many social and medical complications may compromise a full and productive life. Some of them have serious health consequences related to hydrocephalus, craniocervical junction compression, or upper-airway obstruction. In this article, we discuss a number of treatments from the surgical limb lengthening approach and the Recombinant Growth Hormone (rhGH) treatment, to future treatments, which include the Natriuretic Peptide C-type (CNP). The discussion is a comparative study of the complications and drawbacks of various experiments using numerous strategies.

  20. Traditional preventive treatment options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Longbottom, C; Ekstrand, K; Zero, D

    2009-01-01

    Preventive treatment options can be divided into primary, secondary and tertiary prevention techniques, which can involve patient- or professionally applied methods. These include: oral hygiene (instruction), pit and fissure sealants ('temporary' or 'permanent'), fluoride applications (patient...... options....

  1. Breast Cancer: Treatment Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Breast Cancer > Breast Cancer: Treatment Options Request Permissions Breast Cancer: Treatment Options Approved by the Cancer.Net Editorial ... can be addressed as quickly as possible. Recurrent breast cancer If the cancer does return after treatment for ...

  2. Distributed Energy Implementation Options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, Chandralata N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-09-13

    This presentation covers the options for implementing distributed energy projects. It distinguishes between options available for distributed energy that is government owned versus privately owned, with a focus on the privately owned options including Energy Savings Performance Contract Energy Sales Agreements (ESPC ESAs). The presentation covers the new ESPC ESA Toolkit and other Federal Energy Management Program resources.

  3. TANK SPACE OPTIONS REPORT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, W.L.; Ahrendt, M.R.

    2009-01-01

    Since this report was originally issued in 2001, several options proposed for increasing double-shell tank (DST) storage space were implemented or are in the process of implementation. Changes to the single-shell tank (SST) waste retrieval schedule, completion of DST space saving options, and the DST space saving options in progress have delayed the projected shortfall of DST storage space from the 2007-2011 to the 2018-2025 timeframe (ORP-11242, River Protection Project System Plan). This report reevaluates options from Rev. 0 and includes evaluations of new options for alleviating projected restrictions on SST waste retrieval beginning in 2018 because of the lack of DST storage space.

  4. [Treatment options for patellar tendinopathy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duthon, V B; Borloz, S; Ziltener, J-L

    2012-07-25

    Patellar tendinopathy is also called jumper's knee because of its high incidence in athletes with jumping or cutting activities as soccer, basketball, volleyball. Many different treatment methods have been described. However, no consensus exists regarding the optimal treatment for this condition. According to the literature, eccentric exercise-based physical therapy should be proposed first because of its strong scientific evidence. Shockwave therapy and injections may be useful but their real efficacy still has to be proven by randomized controlled study. For patients recalcitrant to more conservative options, operative management may be indicated.

  5. The importance of Real Options Theory in the analysis of investment: what is the added value to a GTL (Gas to Liquid) plant considering managerial flexibility; Qual o valor agregado a uma planta 'Gas to Liquid' considerando-se a flexibilidade gerencial: a importancia da teoria das opcoes reais na analise de investimentos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Francisco, Marcela Lobo [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The goal of this article is to do an investment analysis applying Real Options Theory in the plant Gas to Liquid (GTL). This analysis is the most indicated, because there are several flexibilities in this plant, related to the inputs (many products can be applied) as well the outputs (there are many possible combinations to use). In order to make the analysis as close as possible of reality and the most accurate it became fundamental to calculate the value that those flexibilities add to final value of the plant. It is going to be calculated the value of switch use of inputs (possibility to each semester to choose different resources) and the value of switch use of outputs (the possibility of the plant to produce more than one combination of outputs). Although in order to be feasible the implementation of the real option of switch use it is necessary to know if the added value is bigger or lesser from the cost of implementation. In the research it is achieve the conclusion that the value of switch use of inputs is lower than the cost of its implementation. (author)

  6. Rare disasters, credit, and option market puzzles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Du, Du; Elkamhi, Redouane

    2017-01-01

    calibrated to the real economy can simultaneously explain several key empirical regularities in equity, credit, and options markets. Our model captures the empirical level and volatility of credit spreads, generates a flexible credit risk term structure, and provides a good fit to a century of observed...

  7. The origins of options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smaldino, Paul E; Richerson, Peter J

    2012-01-01

    Most research on decision making has focused on how human or animal decision makers choose between two or more options, posed in advance by the researchers. The mechanisms by which options are generated for most decisions, however, are not well understood. Models of sequential search have examined the trade-off between continued exploration and choosing one's current best option, but still cannot explain the processes by which new options are generated. We argue that understanding the origins of options is a crucial but untapped area for decision making research. We explore a number of factors which influence the generation of options, which fall broadly into two categories: psycho-biological and socio-cultural. The former category includes factors such as perceptual biases and associative memory networks. The latter category relies on the incredible human capacity for culture and social learning, which doubtless shape not only our choices but the options available for choice. Our intention is to start a discussion that brings us closer toward understanding the origins of options.

  8. Americal options analyzed differently

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieuwenhuis, J.W.

    2003-01-01

    In this note we analyze in a discrete-time context and with a finite outcome space American options starting with the idea that every tradable should be a martingale under a certain measure. We believe that in this way American options become more understandable to people with a good working

  9. Traffic Light Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Løchte

    This paper introduces, prices, and analyzes traffic light options. The traffic light option is an innovative structured OTC derivative developed independently by several London-based investment banks to suit the needs of Danish life and pension (L&P) companies, which must comply with the traffic...... 2006, and supervisory authorities in many other European countries have implemented similar regulation. Traffic light options are therefore likely to attract the attention of a wider audience of pension fund managers in the future. Focusing on the valuation of the traffic light option we set up a Black...... light scenarios. These stress scenarios entail drops in interest rates as well as in stock prices, and traffic light options are thus designed to pay off and preserve sufficient capital when interest rates and stock prices fall simultaneously. Sweden's FSA implemented a traffic light system in January...

  10. Traffic Light Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Løchte

    2007-01-01

    This paper introduces, prices, and analyzes traffic light options. The traffic light option is an innovative structured OTC derivative developed independently by several London-based investment banks to suit the needs of Danish life and pension (L&P) companies, which must comply with the traffic...... 2006, and supervisory authorities in many other European countries have implemented similar regulation. Traffic light options are therefore likely to attract the attention of a wider audience of pension fund managers in the future. Focusing on the valuation of the traffic light option we set up a Black...... light scenarios. These stress scenarios entail drops in interest rates as well as in stock prices, and traffic light options are thus designed to pay off and preserve sufficient capital when interest rates and stock prices fall simultaneously. Sweden's FSA implemented a traffic light system in January...

  11. 7 CFR 1781.14 - Planning, options, and appraisals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... designated agent when a WS loan, WS advance or RCD loan is made. (d) Options and appraisals related to the purchase of real estate for which a WS loan, WS advance, or RCD loan is made must be developed in...

  12. FTR-option formulation and pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parmeshwaran, Vijay; Muthuraman, Kumar

    2009-01-01

    Recent changes in electricity markets have advocated the use of Local Marginal Prices (LMP) for congestion management and pricing. From the perspective of market participants, the LMPs pose a risk since they are not known before a transaction on the grid is made. Financial transmission rights (FTR) are instruments that help market participants hedge this risk and are issuable in two flavors - obligations and options. While pricing obligations are much easier, pricing FTR options pose a significant challenge. In this paper we develop a computational method for pricing FTR options. We also discuss the problem of designing financial instrument sets that assure revenue adequacy for the issuer. We point out the difficulty in assuring revenue adequacy when FTR options are present and propose a scheme for overcoming the difficulty. The proposed pricing method can be used to compute prices of options and obligations in the primary market or as a reliable pricing tool to compute option prices in the secondary market. Finally using a test network we present and discuss numerical results. (author)

  13. A CDO option market model on standardized CDS index tranches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dorn, Jochen

    We provide a market model which implies a dynamic for standardized CDS index tranche spreads. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling emerging options on struc- tured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market...... in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the e ects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options...

  14. Polish Toxic Currency Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waldemar Gontarski

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Toxic currency options are defined on the basis of the opposition to the nature (essence of an option contract, which is justified in terms of norms founded on the general law clause of characteristics (nature of a relation (which represents an independent premise for imposing restrictions on the freedom of contracts. So-understood toxic currency options are unlawful. Indeed they contravene iuris cogentis regulations. These include for instance option contracts, which are concluded with a bank, if the bank has not informed about option risk before concluding the contract; or the barrier options, which focus only on the protection of bank’s interests. Therefore, such options may appear to be invalid. Therefore, performing contracts for toxic currency options may be qualified as a criminal mismanagement. For the sake of security, the manager should then take into consideration filing a claim for stating invalidity (which can be made in a court verdict. At the same time, if the supervisory board member in a commercial company, who can also be a subject to mismanagement offences, commits an omission involving lack of reaction (for example, if he/she fails to notify of the suspected offence committed by the management board members acting to the company’s detriment when the management board makes the company conclude option contracts which are charged with absolute invalidity the supervisory board member so acting may be considered to act to the company’s detriment. In the most recent Polish jurisprudence and judicature the standard of a “good host” is treated to be the last resort for determining whether the manager’s powers resulting from criminal regulations were performed. The manager of the exporter should not, as a rule, issue any options. Issuing options always means assuming an obligation. In the case of currency put options it is an absolute obligation to purchase a given amount in euro at exchange rate set in advance. On the

  15. 2005 resource options report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, T.

    2005-01-01

    This resource options report (ROR) fulfils regulatory requirements in British Columbia's two-year resource planning process. It identifies a wide range of resources and technologies that could be used to meet BC Hydro's future electricity demand. As such, it facilitates a transparent public review of resource options which include both supply-side and demand-side options. The resource options that will be used in the 2005 integrated electricity plan (IEP) were characterized. This ROR also documents where there is a general agreement or disagreement on the resource type characterization, based on the First Nations and Stakeholder engagement. BC Hydro used current information to provide realistic ranges on volume and cost to characterize environmental and social attributes. The BC Hydro system was modelled to assess the benefit and cost of various resource options. The information resulting from this ROR and IEP will help in making decisions on how to structure competitive acquisition calls and to determine the level of transmission services needed to advance certain BC Hydro projects. The IEP forecasts the nature and quantity of domestic resources required over the next 20 years. A strategic direction on how those needs will be met has been created to guide the management of BC Hydro's energy resources. Supply-side options include near-commercial technologies such as energy storage, ocean waves, tidal, fuel cells and integrated coal gasification combined cycle technology. Supply-side options also include natural gas, coal, biomass, geothermal, wind, and hydro. 120 refs., 39 tabs., 21 figs., 6 appendices

  16. Early Option Exercise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Jensen, Mads Vestergaard

    A classic result by Merton (1973) is that, except just before expiration or dividend payments, one should never exercise a call option and never convert a convertible bond. We show theoretically that this result is overturned when investors face frictions. Early option exercise can be optimal when...... it reduces short-sale costs, transaction costs, or funding costs. We provide consistent empirical evidence, documenting billions of dollars of early exercise for options and convertible bonds using unique data on actual exercise decisions and frictions. Our model can explain as much as 98% of early exercises...

  17. Early Option Exercise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Mads Vestergaard; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    A classic result by Merton (1973) is that, except just before expiration or dividend payments, one should never exercise a call option and never convert a convertible bond. We show theoretically that this result is overturned when investors face frictions. Early option exercise can be optimal when...... it reduces short-sale costs, transaction costs, or funding costs. We provide consistent empirical evidence, documenting billions of dollars of early exercise for options and convertible bonds using unique data on actual exercise decisions and frictions. Our model can explain as much as 98% of early exercises...

  18. Revisiting Office Rent Determinants : Development of the Istanbul Office Market in the Last Decade from Perspective of Real Estate Brokerage Firms

    OpenAIRE

    Dilek Pekdemir

    2014-01-01

    Many studies on the office market have been conducted for the last thirty years. Especially variables which are expected to affect office rents were examined for different cities. The extent of variables was used in these studies reflecting variations in locational and/or economical conditions of the different cities.It is aimed to examine the development of the Istanbul office market in the last decade from the perspective of brokerage firms. The perception of brokerage firms on the effectiv...

  19. Thermometers: Understand the Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the options Thermometers come in a variety of styles. Understand the different types of thermometers and how ... MA. Fever in infants and children: Pathophysiology and management. http://www.uptodate.com/home. Accessed July 23, ...

  20. How to choose the right capitalization option.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, J; Wise, J

    1996-12-01

    Physician group practices and networks must have ready access to capital to finance their working capital needs, capital equipment acquisitions, and real estate purchases, as well as to fund the acquisition of additional practices. At least three options for capitalization are available to group practices and networks: debt financing, equity financing, or a combination of the two. The best option for physician group practices and networks depends on the costs of capital and the impact the strategy will have on decision making and governance.

  1. Was abandonment of the review clause a mistake? Evaluation of management flexibility in the German coal mining industry on the basis of real options; War die Aufgabe der Revisionsklausel ein Fehler? Beurteilung unternehmerischer Flexibilitaet im deutschen Steinkohlenbergbau auf Basis von Realoptionen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bendiek, Ansgar [Hochtief Concessions AG, Essen (Germany)

    2012-07-01

    The author analyses the decision to abandon the co called ''review clause'' (which was the right to revisit the decision to close German hard coal mines in 2012), and thus management flexibility on the basis of the option price theory and use of hedging instruments (derivatives) in coal trading. Only the case of coal production without any subsidies will be taken into account. The original intention of the review clause to subsidise coal production for further years will be left aside. Abandonment of the review clause destroyed a value of the real option of approx. 819 Mio. EUR. It should be agreed with the politicians that the decision concerning potential extension of coal production without subsidies should be made at the end of 2015. At this point in time the coal price for 2019 to 2021 can be locked in by forward contracts. A prerequisite for coal mining without subsidies would be an increase in the coal price of 3.1% p.a., which is only slightly above the inflation rate and seems to be realistic against the background of rising oil prices and increased scarcity of natural resources. (orig.)

  2. Options for human intrusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauser, M.; Williams, R.

    1993-01-01

    This paper addresses options for dealing with human intrusion in terms of performance requirements and repository siting and design requirements. Options are presented, along with the advantages and disadvantages of certain approaches. At the conclusion, a conceptual approach is offered emphasizing both the minimization of subjective judgements concerning future human activity, and specification of repository requirements to minimize the likelihood of human intrusion and any resulting, harmful effects should intrusion occur

  3. Nevada Transportation Options Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    P. GEHNER; E.M. WEAVER; L. FOSSUM

    2006-01-01

    This study performs a cost and schedule analysis of three Nevada Transportation options that support waste receipt at the repository. Based on the U.S. Department of Energy preference for rail transportation in Nevada (given in the Final Environmental Impact Statement), it has been assumed that a branch rail line would be constructed to support waste receipt at the repository. However, due to potential funding constraints, it is uncertain when rail will be available. The three Nevada Transportation options have been developed to meet a varying degree of requirements for transportation and to provide cost variations used in meeting the funding constraints given in the Technical Direction Letter guidelines for this study. The options include combinations of legal-weight truck, heavy-haul truck, and rail. Option 1 uses a branch rail line that would support initial waste receipt at the repository in 2010. Rail transportation would be the primary mode, supplemented by legal weight trucks. This option provides the highest level of confidence in cost and schedule, lowest public visibility, greatest public acceptability, lowest public dose, and is the recommended option for support of waste receipt. The completion of rail by 2010 will require spending approximately $800 million prior to 2010. Option 2 uses a phased rail approach to address a constrained funding scenario. To meet funding constraints, Option 2 uses a phased approach to delay high cost activities (final design and construction) until after initial waste receipt in 2010. By doing this, approximately 95 percent of the cost associated with completion of a branch rail line is deferred until after 2010. To support waste receipt until a branch rail line is constructed in Nevada, additional legal-weight truck shipments and heavy-haul truck shipments (on a limited basis for naval spent nuclear fuel) would be used to meet the same initial waste receipt rates as in Option 1. Use of heavy-haul shipments in the absence

  4. Options Study - Phase II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. Wigeland; T. Taiwo; M. Todosow; W. Halsey; J. Gehin

    2010-09-01

    The Options Study has been conducted for the purpose of evaluating the potential of alternative integrated nuclear fuel cycle options to favorably address the issues associated with a continuing or expanding use of nuclear power in the United States. The study produced information that can be used to inform decisions identifying potential directions for research and development on such fuel cycle options. An integrated nuclear fuel cycle option is defined in this study as including all aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, from obtaining natural resources for fuel to the ultimate disposal of used nuclear fuel (UNF) or radioactive wastes. Issues such as nuclear waste management, especially the increasing inventory of used nuclear fuel, the current uncertainty about used fuel disposal, and the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation have contributed to the reluctance to expand the use of nuclear power, even though it is recognized that nuclear power is a safe and reliable method of producing electricity. In this Options Study, current, evolutionary, and revolutionary nuclear energy options were all considered, including the use of uranium and thorium, and both once-through and recycle approaches. Available information has been collected and reviewed in order to evaluate the ability of an option to clearly address the challenges associated with the current implementation and potential expansion of commercial nuclear power in the United States. This Options Study is a comprehensive consideration and review of fuel cycle and technology options, including those for disposal, and is not constrained by any limitations that may be imposed by economics, technical maturity, past policy, or speculated future conditions. This Phase II report is intended to be used in conjunction with the Phase I report, and much information in that report is not repeated here, although some information has been updated to reflect recent developments. The focus in this Options Study was to

  5. Public Health Risks of Enterobacterial Isolates Producing Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamases or AmpC β-Lactamases in Food and Food-Producing Animals: An EU Perspective of Epidemiology, Analytical Methods, Risk Factors, and Control Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liebana, Ernesto; Carattoli, Alessandra; Coque, Teresa M.

    2013-01-01

    The blaESBL and blaAmpC genes are spread by plasmid-mediated integrons, insertion sequences, and transposons, some of which are homologous in food animals and humans. Cephalosporin usage in animal production is an important risk factor; restricting such use would be an effective control option....

  6. Are biofuels a feasible option?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldemberg, Jose; Guardabassi, Patricia

    2009-01-01

    Recently a number of objections have been raised against the use of ethanol produced from agricultural products such as maize, sugarcane, wheat or sugar beets as a replacement for gasoline, despite some of their advantages such as being cleaner and to some extent renewable. We address these objections in this paper. Topics discussed include the 'corn connection' (which was theorized to be a cause of deforestation in the Amazonia), the rise of food prices due to ethanol production and the real possibilities of ethanol in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It has been shown that such concerns are grossly exaggerated and that ethanol from sugarcane, as produced in Brazil, is the preferred option for the production of fuel not only in terms of cost but also as a favourable energy balance. Finally, the possibility of expanding ethanol production to other sugar-producing countries is also discussed

  7. Treatment Options for Wilms Tumor

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... come back) after it has been treated. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  8. Treatment Options for Myelodysplastic Syndromes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... special light. Certain factors affect prognosis and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options ... age and general health of the patient. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  9. Treatment Option Overview (Prostate Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  10. Treatment Option Overview (Myelodysplastic Syndromes)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... special light. Certain factors affect prognosis and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options ... age and general health of the patient. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  11. Treatment Option Overview (Esophageal Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  12. Treatment Option Overview (Childhood Rhabdomyosarcoma)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  13. Treatment Option Overview (Penile Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  14. Treatment Option Overview (Vulvar Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  15. Treatment Option Overview (Pancreatic Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  16. Treatment Option Overview (Adrenocortical Carcinoma)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... affect the prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  17. Treatment Options for Childhood Rhabdomyosarcoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  18. Treatment Options for Kaposi Sarcoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  19. Treatment Options for Childhood Craniopharyngioma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... the brain where it was first found. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  20. The applicability of real-time PCR in the diagnostic of cutaneous leishmaniasis and parasite quantification for clinical management: Current status and perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Otacilio C; Yadon, Zaida E; Cupolillo, Elisa

    2017-09-29

    Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is spread worldwide and is the most common manifestation of leishmaniasis. Diagnosis is performed by combining clinical and epidemiological features, and through the detection of Leishmania parasites (or DNA) in tissue specimens or trough parasite isolation in culture medium. Diagnosis of CL is challenging, reflecting the pleomorphic clinical manifestations of this disease. Skin lesions vary in severity, clinical appearance, and duration, and in some cases, they can be indistinguishable from lesions related to other diseases. Over the past few decades, PCR-based methods, including real-time PCR assays, have been developed for Leishmania detection, quantification and species identification, improving the molecular diagnosis of CL. This review provides an overview of many real-time PCR methods reported for the diagnostic evaluation of CL and some recommendations for the application of these methods for quantification purposes for clinical management and epidemiological studies. Furthermore, the use of real-time PCR for Leishmania species identification is also presented. The advantages of real-time PCR protocols are numerous, including increased sensitivity and specificity and simpler standardization of diagnostic procedures. However, despite the numerous assays described, there is still no consensus regarding the methods employed. Furthermore, the analytical and clinical validation of CL molecular diagnosis has not followed international guidelines so far. A consensus methodology comprising a DNA extraction protocol with an exogenous quality control and an internal reference to normalize parasite load is still needed. In addition, the analytical and clinical performance of any consensus methodology must be accurately assessed. This review shows that a standardization initiative is essential to guide researchers and clinical laboratories towards the achievement of a robust and reproducible methodology, which will permit further evaluation

  1. Designing Pareto-superior demand-response rate options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horowitz, I.; Woo, C.K.

    2006-01-01

    We explore three voluntary service options-real-time pricing, time-of-use pricing, and curtailable/interruptible service-that a local distribution company might offer its customers in order to encourage them to alter their electricity usage in response to changes in the electricity-spot-market price. These options are simple and practical, and make minimal information demands. We show that each of the options is Pareto-superior ex ante, in that it benefits both the participants and the company offering it, while not affecting the non-participants. The options are shown to be Pareto-superior ex post as well, except under certain exceptional circumstances. (author)

  2. 20 CFR 416.2035 - Optional supplementation: Additional State options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Optional supplementation: Additional State options. 416.2035 Section 416.2035 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL... § 416.2035 Optional supplementation: Additional State options. (a) Residency requirement. A State or...

  3. Novel preventive treatment options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Longbottom, C; Ekstrand, K; Zero, D

    2009-01-01

    A number of novel preventive treatment options which, as with traditional methods, can be differentiated into 3 categories of prevention (primary, secondary and tertiary), have been and are being currently investigated. Those reviewed are either commercially available or appear relatively close...... of these techniques show considerable promise and dentists should be aware of these developments and follow their progress, the evidence for each of these novel preventive treatment options is currently insufficient to make widespread recommendations. Changes in dental practice should be explored to see how oral...

  4. Tank Space Options Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BOYLES, V.C.

    2001-01-01

    A risk-based priority for the retrieval of Hanford Site waste from the 149 single-shell tanks (SSTs) has been adopted as a result of changes to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (HFFACO) (Ecology et al. 1997) negotiated in 2000. Retrieval of the first three tanks in the retrieval sequence fills available capacity in the double-shell tanks (DSTs) by 2007. As a result, the HFFACO change established a milestone (M-45-12-TO1) requiring the determination of options that could increase waste storage capacity for single-shell tank waste retrieval. The information will be considered in future negotiations. This document fulfills the milestone requirement. This study presents options that were reviewed for the purpose of increasing waste storage capacity. Eight options are identified that have the potential for increasing capacity from 5 to 10 million gallons, thus allowing uninterrupted single-shell tank retrieval until the planned Waste Treatment Plant begins processing substantial volumes of waste from the double-shell tanks in 2009. The cost of implementing these options is estimated to range from less than $1 per gallon to more than $14 per gallon. Construction of new double-shell tanks is estimated to cost about $63 per gallon. Providing 5 to 10 million gallons of available double-shell tank space could enable early retrieval of 5 to 9 high-risk single-shell tanks beyond those identified for retrieval by 2007. These tanks are A-101, AX-101, AX-103, BY-102, C-107, S-105, S-106, S-108, and S-109 (Garfield et al. 2000). This represents a potential to retrieve approximately 14 million total curies, including 3,200 curies of long-lived mobile radionuclides. The results of the study reflect qualitative analyses conducted to identify promising options. The estimated costs are rough-order-of magnitude and, therefore, subject to change. Implementing some of the options would represent a departure from the current baseline and may adversely impact the

  5. Alternative energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, K.F.

    1983-01-01

    It is accepted that coal will continue to play the major role in the supply of energy to the country for the remainder of the century. In this paper, however, emphasis has been directed to those options which could supplement coal in an economic and technically sound manner. The general conclusion is that certain forms of solar energy hold the most promise and it is in this direction that research, development and implementation programmes should be directed. Tidal energy, fusion energy, geothermal energy, hydrogen energy and fuel cells are also discussed as alternative energy options

  6. Thermal test options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koski, J.A.; Keltner, N.R.; Sobolik, K.B.

    1993-02-01

    Shipping containers for radioactive materials must be qualified to meet a thermal accident environment specified in regulations, such at Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Part 71. Aimed primarily at the shipping container design, this report discusses the thermal testing options available for meeting the regulatory requirements, and states the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The principal options considered are testing with radiant heat, furnaces, and open pool fires. The report also identifies some of the facilities available and current contacts. Finally, the report makes some recommendations on the appropriate use of these different testing methods

  7. Lighting Options for Homes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, W.S.

    1991-04-01

    This report covers many aspects of various lighting options for homes. Types of light sources described include natural light, artificial light, incandescent lamps, fluorescent lamps, and high intensity discharge lamps. A light source selection guide gives the physical characteristics of these, design considerations, and common applications. Color, strategies for efficient lighting, and types of lighting are discussed. There is one section giving tips for various situations in specific rooms. Rooms and types of fixtures are shown on a matrix with watts saved by using the recommended type lighting for that room and room location. A major emphasis of this report is saving energy by utilizing the most suitable, recommended lighting option. (BN)

  8. Strategic growth options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kulatilaka, N.; Perotti, E.C.

    1998-01-01

    We provide a strategic rationale for growth options under uncertainty and imperfect corn-petition. In a market with strategic competition, investment confers a greater capability to take advantage of future growth opportunities. This strategic advantage leads to the capture of a greater share of the

  9. New Options, Old Concerns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neil, John

    1996-01-01

    Will greater school choice result in more responsive, higher quality schools and happier parents? Or will proliferating options further sort students and families by race, social class, and special interest? Increasingly, education is viewed as a private good. If parents become autonomous, self-interested consumers, erosion of common purposes and…

  10. Heterogeneity and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benninga, Simon; Mayshar, Joram

    2000-01-01

    An economy with agents having constant yet heterogeneous degrees of relative risk aversion prices assets as though there were a single decreasing relative risk aversion pricing representative agent. The pricing kernel has fat tails and option prices do not conform to the Black-Scholes formula.

  11. Option Pricing and Momentum

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodriguez, J.C.

    2007-01-01

    If managers are reluctant to fully adjust dividends to changes in earnings, stock returns and changes in the dividend yield will tend to be negatively correlated. When this is the case, stock returns will exhibit positive autocorrelation, or mo- mentum. This paper studies the pricing of options in

  12. Idaho's Energy Options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert M. Neilson

    2006-03-01

    This report, developed by the Idaho National Laboratory, is provided as an introduction to and an update of the status of technologies for the generation and use of energy. Its purpose is to provide information useful for identifying and evaluating Idaho’s energy options, and for developing and implementing Idaho’s energy direction and policies.

  13. Perspectives for the provision of biofuels. Classification of fuel options according to technical, economic and ecological criteria; Perspektiven der Biokraftstoffbereitstellung. Einordnung der Kraftstoffoptionen nach technischen, oekonomischen und oekologischen Kriterien

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scheftelowitz, Mattes; Mueller-Langer, Franziska [DBFZ Deutsches BiomasseForschungsZentrum gemeinnuetzige GmbH, Leipzig (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    Next to the use of more efficient, innovative technologies (including hybrid vehicles, electromobility) another important contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the traffic sector will have to come from biofuels. A wide variety of conversion pathways, each with numerous process alternatives, is available along the whole length of the ''well-to-wheel'' chain (i.e. starting from biomass cropping or recovery, through its supply and conversion to biofuel, including the necessary infrastructure, and ending with its final use). The present paper presents various biofuel options and compares them on the basis of systematic, economic and ecological criteria.

  14. Fuzzy Optimization of Option Pricing Model and Its Application in Land Expropriation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aimin Heng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Option pricing is irreversible, fuzzy, and flexible. The fuzzy measure which is used for real option pricing is a useful supplement to the traditional real option pricing method. Based on the review of the concepts of the mean and variance of trapezoidal fuzzy number and the combination with the Carlsson-Fuller model, the trapezoidal fuzzy variable can be used to represent the current price of land expropriation and the sale price of land on the option day. Fuzzy Black-Scholes option pricing model can be constructed under fuzzy environment and problems also can be solved and discussed through numerical examples.

  15. Rapid modeling of complex multi-fault ruptures with simplistic models from real-time GPS: Perspectives from the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, B.; Melgar, D.

    2017-12-01

    The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake is one of the most complex earthquakes in recent history, rupturing across at least 10 disparate faults with varying faulting styles, and exhibiting intricate surface deformation patterns. The complexity of this event has motivated the need for multidisciplinary geophysical studies to get at the underlying source physics to better inform earthquake hazards models in the future. However, events like Kaikoura beg the question of how well (or how poorly) such earthquakes can be modeled automatically in real-time and still satisfy the general public and emergency managers. To investigate this question, we perform a retrospective real-time GPS analysis of the Kaikoura earthquake with the G-FAST early warning module. We first perform simple point source models of the earthquake using peak ground displacement scaling and a coseismic offset based centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversion. We predict ground motions based on these point sources as well as simple finite faults determined from source scaling studies, and validate against true recordings of peak ground acceleration and velocity. Secondly, we perform a slip inversion based upon the CMT fault orientations and forward model near-field tsunami maximum expected wave heights to compare against available tide gauge records. We find remarkably good agreement between recorded and predicted ground motions when using a simple fault plane, with the majority of disagreement in ground motions being attributable to local site effects, not earthquake source complexity. Similarly, the near-field tsunami maximum amplitude predictions match tide gauge records well. We conclude that even though our models for the Kaikoura earthquake are devoid of rich source complexities, the CMT driven finite fault is a good enough "average" source and provides useful constraints for rapid forecasting of ground motion and near-field tsunami amplitudes.

  16. Real Language Meets Real Business

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muirhead, Muirhead; Schechter, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    The Real Business Language Challenge was a collaborative pilot project between Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) and Routes into Languages East for Year 9 and 10 pupils. It was based on CCE's award-winning Real Business Challenge, part of its highly acclaimed education programme. The Real Business Language Challenge transformed the project into a…

  17. How Can It Be More Real? A Case Study to Present the Authenticity of a Local Heritage District from the Perspective of Regional Spatial Morphology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huanxi Zhao

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The discussion of authenticity has become an academic theme of great interest to scholars in the tourism and heritage fields. However, there have been relatively few studies related to the authenticity of the spatial morphology of a historical urban area. This paper is based on the approach of the theory of “constructive authenticity”, and takes a local historical district heritage in Beijing as an example to analyze the authenticity of the spatial morphology of a particular heritage site. This paper takes into account three aspects: (1 overall layout; (2 street landscape; and (3 the pattern inside the courtyards. It then analyzes the Nanluo area from the perspective of the change in spatial patterns from the past to the present, as an aspect of research on the protection and sustainable development of local historic districts. Through the analysis, it can be seen that from the point of view of spatial morphology, the Nanluo area is distant from its shape in the past, and the main differences are reflected in the above three aspects. It also can be seen that in today’s Nanluo area, the authenticity of the layout that is perceived by tourists is a “constructive authenticity” that has been developed over years.

  18. Internet privacy options for adequate realisation

    CERN Document Server

    2013-01-01

    A thorough multidisciplinary analysis of various perspectives on internet privacy was published as the first volume of a study, revealing the results of the achatech project "Internet Privacy - A Culture of Privacy and Trust on the Internet." The second publication from this project presents integrated, interdisciplinary options for improving privacy on the Internet utilising a normative, value-oriented approach. The ways in which privacy promotes and preconditions fundamental societal values and how privacy violations endanger the flourishing of said values are exemplified. The conditions which must be fulfilled in order to achieve a culture of privacy and trust on the internet are illuminated. This volume presents options for policy-makers, educators, businesses and technology experts how to facilitate solutions for more privacy on the Internet and identifies further research requirements in this area.

  19. Management options of varicoceles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Chan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Varicocele is one of the most common causes of male infertility. Treatment options for varicoceles includes open varicocelectomy performed at various anatomical levels. Laparoscopic varicocelectomy has been established to be a safe and effective treatment for varicoceles. Robotic surgery has been introduced recently as an alternative surgical option for varicocelectomy. Microsurgical varicocelectomy has gained increasing popularity among experts in male reproductive medicine as the treatment of choice for varicocele because of its superior surgical outcomes. There is a growing volume of literature in the recent years on minimal invasive varicocele treatment with percutaneous retrograde and anterograde venous embolization/sclerotherapy. In this review, we will discuss the advantages and limitations associated with each treatment modality for varicoceles. Employment of these advanced techniques of varicocelectomy can provide a safe and effective approach aiming to eliminate varicocele, preserve testicular function and, in a substantial number of men, increase semen quality and the likelihood of pregnancy.

  20. Energy options?; Energie opties?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Sark, W. (ed.)

    2006-05-15

    March 2006 the so-called Options Document was published by the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP). The document is an overview of technical options to reduce energy consumption and emission of greenhouse gases up to 2020. Next to a brief summary of the document a few reactions and comments on the contents of the document are given. [Dutch] Maart 2006 publiceerde het Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland (ECN) en het Milieu- en Natuurplanbureau (MNP) het zogenaamde Optiedocument energie en emissies 2010-2020. Daarin wordt een overzicht gegeven van de technische mogelijkheden voor vermindering van het energieverbruik en de uitstoot van broeikasgassen en luchtverontreinigende stoffen tot 2020. Naast een korte samenvatting van het document worden enkele reacties gegeven op de inhoud.

  1. Evaluating technology service options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumberg, D F

    1997-05-01

    Four service and support options are available to healthcare organizations for maintaining their growth arsenals of medical and information technology. These options include maintaining and servicing all equipment using a facility-based biomedical engineering and MIS service department; using a combination of facility-based service and subcontracted service; expanding facility-based biomedical and MIS service departments to provide service to other healthcare organizations to achieve economies of scale; and outsourcing all maintenance, repair, and technical support services. Independent service companies and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are offering healthcare organizations a wider array of service and support capabilities than ever before. However, some health systems have successfully developed their own independent service organizations to take care of their own--and other healthcare organizations'--service and support needs.

  2. Optioner eller betingede aktier?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bechmann, Ken L.; Thorsell, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    Incitamentsaflønning – og herunder især aktieaflønning – fortsætter med at tiltrække sig stor opmærksomhed fra en lang række sider. Et spørgsmål, der ofte diskuteres, er selskabernes anvendelse af aktieaflønning, dvs. aflønning med optioner, betingede aktier o. lign. Diskussionerne har blandt andet...

  3. Shungnak Energy Configuration Options.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosewater, David Martin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Eddy, John P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Power systems in rural Alaska villages face a unique combination of challenges that can increase the cost of energy and lowers energy supply reliability. In the case of the remote village of Shungnak, diesel and heating fuel is either shipped in by barge or flown in by aircraft. This report presents a technical analysis of several energy infrastructure upgrade and modification options to reduce the amount of fuel consumed by the community of Shungnak. Reducing fuel usage saves money and makes the village more resilient to disruptions in fuel supply. The analysis considers demand side options, such as energy efficiency, alongside the installation of wind and solar power generation options. Some novel approaches are also considered including battery energy storage and the use of electrical home heating stoves powered by renewable generation that would otherwise be spilled and wasted. This report concludes with specific recommendations for Shungnak based on economic factors, and fuel price sensitivity. General conclusions are also included to support future work analyzing similar energy challenges in remote arctic regions.

  4. The safeguards options study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hakkila, E.A.; Mullen, M.F.; Olinger, C.T.; Stanbro, W.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Olsen, A.P.; Roche, C.T.; Rudolph, R.R. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Bieber, A.M.; Lemley, J. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Filby, E. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)] [and others

    1995-04-01

    The Safeguards Options Study was initiated to aid the International Safeguards Division (ISD) of the DOE Office of Arms Control and Nonproliferation in developing its programs in enhanced international safeguards. The goal was to provide a technical basis for the ISD program in this area. The Safeguards Options Study has been a cooperative effort among ten organizations. These are Argonne National Laboratory, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mound Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest Laboratories, Sandia National Laboratories, and Special Technologies Laboratory. Much of the Motivation for the Safeguards Options Study is the recognition after the Iraq experience that there are deficiencies in the present approach to international safeguards. While under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards at their declared facilities, Iraq was able to develop a significant weapons program without being noticed. This is because negotiated safeguards only applied at declared sites. Even so, their nuclear weapons program clearly conflicted with Iraq`s obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) as a nonnuclear weapon state.

  5. The safeguards options study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hakkila, E.A.; Mullen, M.F.; Olinger, C.T.; Stanbro, W.D.; Olsen, A.P.; Roche, C.T.; Rudolph, R.R.; Bieber, A.M.; Lemley, J.; Filby, E.

    1995-04-01

    The Safeguards Options Study was initiated to aid the International Safeguards Division (ISD) of the DOE Office of Arms Control and Nonproliferation in developing its programs in enhanced international safeguards. The goal was to provide a technical basis for the ISD program in this area. The Safeguards Options Study has been a cooperative effort among ten organizations. These are Argonne National Laboratory, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mound Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest Laboratories, Sandia National Laboratories, and Special Technologies Laboratory. Much of the Motivation for the Safeguards Options Study is the recognition after the Iraq experience that there are deficiencies in the present approach to international safeguards. While under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards at their declared facilities, Iraq was able to develop a significant weapons program without being noticed. This is because negotiated safeguards only applied at declared sites. Even so, their nuclear weapons program clearly conflicted with Iraq's obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) as a nonnuclear weapon state

  6. THREE ESSAYS ON ASSET PRICING APPLYING REAL OPTIONS METHODOLOGY

    OpenAIRE

    KATIA MARIA CARLOS ROCHA

    2006-01-01

    A dissertação apresenta três ensaios econômicos onde a abordagem de opções reais faz-se mister seja na definição de políticas regulatórias, estratégias de investimentos ou apreçamento de risco soberano. O primeiro ensaio, toma como premissa a nova regulação orientada a custos da interconexão de redes de telecomunicações e propõe ajustes no cálculo da remuneração de capital da telefonia fixa local. O modelo proposto estabelece o mark-up sobre o custo médi...

  7. REAL OPTIONS IN PROJECT FINANCE: AN OIL INDUSTRY APPLICATION

    OpenAIRE

    RAFAEL MACHADO MENDES

    2012-01-01

    As estruturas do tipo Project Finance, cada vez mais, vêm sendo utilizadas para o financiamento de projetos de investimento, principalmente, quando se trata de obras infraestruturais. Para tanto, uma grande estruturação jurídica é utilizada de forma a garantir uma adequada alocação de riscos às partes interessadas do projeto. Esta gestão riscos do projeto é de fundamental importância para garantir a viabilidade financeira e sucesso de um financiamento estruturado, como o Projec...

  8. Applying Real Options Thinking to Information Security in Networked Organizations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daneva, Maia

    2006-01-01

    An information security strategy of an organization participating in a networked business sets out the plans for designing a variety of actions that ensure confidentiality, availability, and integrity of company’s key information assets. The actions are concerned with authentication and

  9. Bringing Reality to "Real Options": An Experiential Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Craig; Turner, Kyle Dean

    2015-01-01

    Issues surrounding the contextual environment in which strategic decisions are made are difficult concepts to grasp, particularly for undergraduate students with little business experience. They are also problematic for graduate students that have not been called on to make such decisions within their career. The authors propose an exercise that…

  10. Real options valuation in the design of Future surface combatants

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    design, different from the preceding FREMM multi-mission frigates, and features an unusual ‘ inverted bow’ intended to improve seakeeping in high sea...method of ship design is becoming cost-prohibitive when looking at the lifetime life-cycle cost for upgrades, overhauls, and drives inflexibility

  11. Volume flexibility and capacity investment: a real options approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wen, Xingang; Kort, Peter; Talman, Dolf

    2017-01-01

    This paper considers the investment decision of a firm where it has to decide about the timing and capacity. We obtain that in a fast-growing market, right after investment the firm produces below capacity, where the utilization rate (the proportion of capacity that is used for production right

  12. Volume Flexibility and Capacity Investment : A Real Options Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Wen, X.; Kort, P.M.; Talman, A.J.J.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract: This paper considers the investment decision of a firm where it has to decide about the timing and capacity. We obtain that in a fast-growing market, right after investment the firm produces below capacity, where the utilization rate (the proportion of capacity that is used for production right after the investment) increases with market uncertainty for a very big market trend, and shows no monotonicity for a moderately large market trend. On the other hand, we get that, for a slowl...

  13. Fuel cells: a real option for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles propulsion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Espasandín, Óscar; Leo, Teresa J; Navarro-Arévalo, Emilio

    2014-01-01

    The possibility of implementing fuel cell technology in Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) propulsion systems is considered. Potential advantages of the Proton Exchange Membrane or Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEMFC) and Direct Methanol Fuel Cells (DMFC), their fuels (hydrogen and methanol), and their storage systems are revised from technical and environmental standpoints. Some operating commercial applications are described. Main constraints for these kinds of fuel cells are analyzed in order to elucidate the viability of future developments. Since the low power density is the main problem of fuel cells, hybridization with electric batteries, necessary in most cases, is also explored.

  14. Fuel Cells: A Real Option for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Propulsion

    OpenAIRE

    González_Espasandín, Oscar; Leo Mena, Teresa de Jesus; Navarro Arevalo, Emilio

    2013-01-01

    The possibility of implementing fuel cell technology in Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) propulsion systems is considered. Potential advantages of the Proton Exchange Membrane or Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEMFC) and Direct Methanol Fuel Cells (DMFC), their fuels (hydrogen and methanol), and their storage systems are revised from technical and environmental standpoints. Some operating commercial applications are described. Main constraints for these kinds of fuel cells are analyzed in order t...

  15. Fuel Cells: A Real Option for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Propulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    The possibility of implementing fuel cell technology in Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) propulsion systems is considered. Potential advantages of the Proton Exchange Membrane or Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEMFC) and Direct Methanol Fuel Cells (DMFC), their fuels (hydrogen and methanol), and their storage systems are revised from technical and environmental standpoints. Some operating commercial applications are described. Main constraints for these kinds of fuel cells are analyzed in order to elucidate the viability of future developments. Since the low power density is the main problem of fuel cells, hybridization with electric batteries, necessary in most cases, is also explored. PMID:24600326

  16. Fuel Cells: A Real Option for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Propulsion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Óscar González-Espasandín

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The possibility of implementing fuel cell technology in Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV propulsion systems is considered. Potential advantages of the Proton Exchange Membrane or Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEMFC and Direct Methanol Fuel Cells (DMFC, their fuels (hydrogen and methanol, and their storage systems are revised from technical and environmental standpoints. Some operating commercial applications are described. Main constraints for these kinds of fuel cells are analyzed in order to elucidate the viability of future developments. Since the low power density is the main problem of fuel cells, hybridization with electric batteries, necessary in most cases, is also explored.

  17. Volume Flexibility and Capacity Investment : A Real Options Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wen, X.; Kort, P.M.; Talman, A.J.J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the investment decision of a firm where it has to decide about the timing and capacity. We obtain that in a fast growing market, right after investment the firm produces below capacity, where the utilization rate (the proportion of capacity that is used for production right

  18. Valuation of Real Options as Competitive Prototyping in System Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    hedge technology investment risk (Benaroch, 2001), and application to design modularity (Baldwin & Clark, 2000), research and development resource...Valuation Models assume that: (a) future asset behavior and value conform to well-defined processes, (b) markets are complete and arbitrage opportunities

  19. Decisioneering in Nuclear Energy Systems : A Real Option View

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauferts, U.

    2012-01-01

    Financial- and Energy markets have one predominant characteristic in common: A large degree of uncertainty that drives the value of an investment in them. The thesis criticises the poor decision making support for investments into new generation capacity on base of pure cost comparison and NPV

  20. Hydrogen Infrastructure Decisions through a Real Option Lens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/31485021X

    2018-01-01

    Hydrogen has emerged as a possible transportation fuel for addressing long-term, sustainable energy supply, security, and environmental problems. The transition from fossil-fuel based energy consumption towards sustainable energy solutions is a complex societal process. The innovation process for

  1. Spent fuel reprocessing options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-08-01

    The objective of this publication is to provide an update on the latest developments in nuclear reprocessing technologies in the light of new developments on the global nuclear scene. The background information on spent fuel reprocessing is provided in Section One. Substantial global growth of nuclear electricity generation is expected to occur during this century, in response to environmental issues and to assure the sustainability of the electrical energy supply in both industrial and less-developed countries. This growth carries with it an increasing responsibility to ensure that nuclear fuel cycle technologies are used only for peaceful purposes. In Section Two, an overview of the options for spent fuel reprocessing and their level of development are provided. A number of options exist for the treatment of spent fuel. Some, including those that avoid separation of a pure plutonium stream, are at an advanced level of technological maturity. These could be deployed in the next generation of industrial-scale reprocessing plants, while others (such as dry methods) are at a pilot scale, laboratory scale or conceptual stage of development. In Section Three, research and development in support of advanced reprocessing options is described. Next-generation spent fuel reprocessing plants are likely to be based on aqueous extraction processes that can be designed to a country specific set of spent fuel partitioning criteria for recycling of fissile materials to advanced light water reactors or fast spectrum reactors. The physical design of these plants must incorporate effective means for materials accountancy, safeguards and physical protection. Section four deals with issues and challenges related to spent fuel reprocessing. The spent fuel reprocessing options assessment of economics, proliferation resistance, and environmental impact are discussed. The importance of public acceptance for a reprocessing strategy is discussed. A review of modelling tools to support the

  2. Deliberating emission reduction options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowd, A. M.; Rodriguez, M.; Jeanneret, T. [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation CSIRO, 37 Graham Rd, Highett VIC 3190 (Australia); De Best-Waldhober, M.; Straver, K.; Mastop, J.; Paukovic, M. [Energy research Centre of the Netherlands ECN, Policy Studies, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2012-06-15

    For more than 20 years there has been a concerted international effort toward addressing climate change. International conventions, such as the United Nations Foreign Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC; ratified in 1994), have been established by committed nations seeking to address global climate change through the reduction of greenhouse gases emitted into the Earth's atmosphere (Global CCS Institute, 2011). Long recognised as the most crucial of the greenhouse gases to impact global warming, the majority of carbon dioxide's anthropogenic global emissions are directly related to fuel combustion of which both Australia and the Netherlands' energy production is significantly reliant. Both these nations will need to consider many opinions and make hard decisions if alternative energy options are to be implemented at the scale that is required to meet international emission targets. The decisions that are required not only need to consider the many options available but also their consequences. Along with politicians, policy developers and industry, the general public also need to be active participants in deciding which energy options, and their subsequent consequences, are acceptable for implementation at the national level. Access to balanced and factual information is essential in establishing informed opinions on the many policy options available. Past research has used several methods to measure public perceptions and opinions yet for complex issues, such as emission reduction, some of these methods have shown to be problematic. For example, semi structured interviews can provide data that is flexible and context rich yet is does also come with the limitations such as it seldom provides a practical assessment that can be utilised from researcher to researcher, across disciplines and public participation techniques. Surveys on the other hand usually address these limitations but surveys that do not encourage comparison of information or ask participants to

  3. Deliberating emission reduction options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowd, A.M.; Rodriguez, M.; Jeanneret, T. [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation CSIRO, 37 Graham Rd, Highett VIC 3190 (Australia); De Best-Waldhober, M.; Straver, K.; Mastop, J.; Paukovic, M. [Energy research Centre of the Netherlands ECN, Policy Studies, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2012-06-15

    For more than 20 years there has been a concerted international effort toward addressing climate change. International conventions, such as the United Nations Foreign Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC; ratified in 1994), have been established by committed nations seeking to address global climate change through the reduction of greenhouse gases emitted into the Earth's atmosphere (Global CCS Institute, 2011). Long recognised as the most crucial of the greenhouse gases to impact global warming, the majority of carbon dioxide's anthropogenic global emissions are directly related to fuel combustion of which both Australia and the Netherlands' energy production is significantly reliant. Both these nations will need to consider many opinions and make hard decisions if alternative energy options are to be implemented at the scale that is required to meet international emission targets. The decisions that are required not only need to consider the many options available but also their consequences. Along with politicians, policy developers and industry, the general public also need to be active participants in deciding which energy options, and their subsequent consequences, are acceptable for implementation at the national level. Access to balanced and factual information is essential in establishing informed opinions on the many policy options available. Past research has used several methods to measure public perceptions and opinions yet for complex issues, such as emission reduction, some of these methods have shown to be problematic. For example, semi structured interviews can provide data that is flexible and context rich yet is does also come with the limitations such as it seldom provides a practical assessment that can be utilised from researcher to researcher, across disciplines and public participation techniques. Surveys on the other hand usually address these limitations but surveys that do not encourage comparison of information or ask

  4. Innovation and risk-averse firms: Options on carbon allowances as a hedging tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szolgayová, Jana; Golub, Alexander; Fuss, Sabine

    2014-01-01

    In a regulated world where government seeks to decarbonize the energy sector, firms face both indirect and direct costs of emitting CO 2 . This study seeks to take the perspective of the firm, which needs to maximize profits implying minimization of (carbon) cost as well. In this study, the firm can compose the cost-optimal portfolio of (a) investing into carbon-saving technology, which is currently expensive, (b) investing into carbon-saving technology R and D and adopt this technology at a later point, (c) buying allowances per ton of emitted CO 2 in a carbon market (alternatively this could be formulated as a tax), and (d) buying offsets traded in the same market, which are based on reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+). Uncertainties in the cost of carbon coming from a lack of commitment in policy-making leading to fluctuations in markets and uncertainty in the payoff of R and D activities could provide disincentives to incur large up-front sunk cost and raise the economic value of being flexible. We apply a real options approach with stochastic carbon-saving technology costs and stochastic CO 2 costs. Assuming that firms are risk-averse, they will not only value flexibility, but also risk reductions from diversification over the different (carbon mitigation) options. - Highlights: • We study the compliance problem of a private firm under both regulatory and technological uncertainty in an optimal control setting. • When firms are risk-averse, forest-backed offset options will be part of the compliance portfolio. • R and D creates valuable options on new technology

  5. Estimation of petroleum assets: contribution of the options theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chesney, M.

    1999-01-01

    With the development of data on real options, the theoretical and practical research on projects estimation has advanced considerably. The analogy between investment advisabilities and options allow to take into account the flexibility which is inherent in any project as well as the choices which are available to investors. The advantages of this approach are shown in this paper. An example of application in the field of petroleum industry is given. (O.M.)

  6. Treatment Options for Actinic Keratosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) depends mostly on ... helped by lip balm or petroleum jelly . Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  7. Treatment Option Overview (Vaginal Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) depends on the ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  8. Treatment Option Overview (Anal Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... affect the prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) depends on the ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  9. Pricing American and Asian Options

    OpenAIRE

    Pat Muldowney

    2015-01-01

    An analytic method for pricing American call options is provided; followed by an empirical method for pricing Asian call options. The methodology is the pricing theory presented in "A Modern Theory of Random Variation", by Patrick Muldowney, 2012.

  10. The information content of options

    OpenAIRE

    Navon, Yonatan

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this thesis is to examine the information content of stock options in financial markets. A key question in financial economics is how information diffuses across markets and how quickly it is reflected in security prices. This thesis aims at exploring this question by investigating the informational role that options play in financial markets. This is achieved by exploring the joint cross section of option and bond prices, the informational role of options in seasoned equity ...

  11. Balancing of solar heating options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veltkamp, W.B.; van Koppen, C.W.J.; Ouden, den C.

    1984-01-01

    In the field of energy conservation many options are presently competing. This study aims at providing more rational criteria for selection between these options.The options considered are; insulation of the walls, regeneration of the heat in the waste air, double glazing, attached sunspace at the

  12. Stock option repricing in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sauer, M.; Sautner, Z.

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates the link between option repricing, firm performance and corporate governance in Europe. Our sample consists of 77 European firms that repriced their stock option between 1987 and 2003. We document that option repricing is mainly a phenomenon for young and fast growing firms

  13. Supply Chain Bilateral Coordination with Option Contracts under Inflation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nana Wan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There exist obvious changes in price and demand during the inflationary period, both of which are regarded as the key factors leading to supply chain uncertainty. In this paper, we focus our discussion on price increase and demand contraction caused by inflation, integrate the effect of inflation and option contracts within the model framework, and analyze how to use option contracts to achieve supply chain coordination under inflation scenarios. We consider a one-period two-stage supply chain consisting of one supplier and one retailer and explore the effect of inflation on the optimal ordering and production decisions under three different types of contracts: wholesale price contracts, option contracts, and portfolio contracts. Moreover, we explore the impact of option contracts on the supply chain through using wholesale price contracts model as the benchmark. We find that the retailer prefers adopting portfolio contracts, but the supplier prefers providing option contracts under inflation scenarios. Ultimately, option contracts will be implemented owing to the supplier’s market dominant position. In addition, we discuss the supply chain bilateral coordination mechanism with option contracts from the perspectives of two members and derive that option contracts can coordinate the supply chain and achieve Pareto improvement under inflation scenarios.

  14. Analyzing the Risks Embedded in Option Prices with rndfittool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barletta, Andrea; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    2018-01-01

    This paper introduces a new computational tool for the analysis of the risks embedded in a set of prices of European-style options. The software enables the estimation of the risk-neutral density (RND) from the observed option prices by means of orthogonal polynomial expansions. Orthogonal...... polynomials offer a viable alternative to more standard techniques based on interpolation and estimation of the second-order derivatives of option prices. The app rndfittool is available on GitHub and its usage is illustrated with examples based on real data....

  15. Contemplating future energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pooley, D.

    2005-01-01

    All political parties in the UK accept that we should move away from our reliance on fossil fuels towards a much greater use of alternative energy technologies. Nuclear power is one of these but finds minimal support in the political spectrum. The article reviews the European Commission's Advisory Group on Energy submission to the EC's report entitled 'Key Tasks for European Energy R and D'. The 'strength and weaknesses' of the various 'alternative energy' systems (including nuclear power) are summarised and then the key R and D tasks which, if they are carried out successfully, should make the eight selected technologies significantly more attractive. However, the message here is clear enough: there are no easy options, only a range of very imperfect possibilities, despite what enthusiastic proponents of each may say. Nuclear fission is certainly one of the most attractive options available, but the industry needs to continue to strive to eliminate the possibility of significant off-site releases, whether caused by plant failure or by human error or intention, and to prove beyond reasonable doubt the safety of high-level radioactive waste disposal. (author)

  16. Achalasia: Treatment Options Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willemijntje A Hoogerwerf

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of all current forms of treatment of achalasia is to enable the patient to eat without disabling symptoms such as dysphagia, regurgitation, coughing or choking. Historically, this has been accomplished by mechanical disruption of the lower esophageal sphincter fibres, either by means of pneumatic dilation (PD or by open surgical myotomy. The addition of laparoscopic myotomy and botulinum toxin (BTX injection to the therapeutic armamentarium has triggered a recent series of reviews to determine the optimal therapeutic approach. Both PD and BTX have excellent short term (less than three months efficacy in the majority of patients. New data have been published that suggest that PD and BTX (with repeat injections can potentially obtain long term efficacy. PD is still considered the first-line treatment by most physicians; its main disadvantage is risk of perforation. BTX injection is evolving as an excellent, safe option for patients who are considered high risk for more invasive procedures. Laparoscopic myotomy with combined antireflux surgery is an increasingly attractive option in younger patients with achalasia, but long term follow-up studies are required to establish its efficacy and the potential for reflux-related sequelae.

  17. Retrieval options study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-03-01

    This Retrieval Options Study is part of the systems analysis activities of the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation to develop the scientific and technological bases for radioactive waste repositories in various geologic media. The study considers two waste forms, high level waste and spent fuel, and defines various classes of waste retrieval and recovery. A methodology and data base are developed which allow the relative evaluation of retrieval and recovery costs and the following technical criteria: safety; technical feasibility; ease of retrieval; probable intact retrieval time; safeguards; monitoring; criticality; and licensability. A total of 505 repository options are defined and the cost and technical criteria evaluated utilizing a combination of facts and engineering judgments. The repositories evaluated are selected combinations of the following parameters: Geologic Media (salt, granite, basalt, shale); Retrieval Time after Emplacement (5 and 25 years); Emplacement Design (nominal hole, large hole, carbon steel canister, corrosion resistant canister, backfill in hole, nominal sleeves, thick wall sleeves); Emplacement Configuration (single vertical, multiple vertical, single horizontal, multiple horizontal, vaults; Thermal Considerations; (normal design, reduced density, once-through ventilation, recirculated ventilation); Room Backfill; (none, run-of-mine, early, 5 year delay, 25 year delay, decommissioned); and Rate of Retrieval; (same as emplacement, variably slower depending on repository/canister condition).

  18. Retrieval options study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-03-01

    This Retrieval Options Study is part of the systems analysis activities of the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation to develop the scientific and technological bases for radioactive waste repositories in various geologic media. The study considers two waste forms, high level waste and spent fuel, and defines various classes of waste retrieval and recovery. A methodology and data base are developed which allow the relative evaluation of retrieval and recovery costs and the following technical criteria: safety; technical feasibility; ease of retrieval; probable intact retrieval time; safeguards; monitoring; criticality; and licensability. A total of 505 repository options are defined and the cost and technical criteria evaluated utilizing a combination of facts and engineering judgments. The repositories evaluated are selected combinations of the following parameters: Geologic Media (salt, granite, basalt, shale); Retrieval Time after Emplacement (5 and 25 years); Emplacement Design (nominal hole, large hole, carbon steel canister, corrosion resistant canister, backfill in hole, nominal sleeves, thick wall sleeves); Emplacement Configuration (single vertical, multiple vertical, single horizontal, multiple horizontal, vaults; Thermal Considerations; (normal design, reduced density, once-through ventilation, recirculated ventilation); Room Backfill; (none, run-of-mine, early, 5 year delay, 25 year delay, decommissioned); and Rate of Retrieval;

  19. Essential equivalence: the objectives and requirements of a stategic nuclear policy: a perspective on the evolution of US strategic nuclear policy, and an assessment of present and emerging US strategic policy and force stucture options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, P.C.

    1979-01-01

    This study provides a discussion of the origins and evolution of US strategic nuclear policy, the objectives an requirements of US nuclear forces, and an assessment of present and emerging US stategic nuclear policy and force structure options. It identifies the distinctive phases of US strategic nuclear policy, the conditions of the military environments in which those policies were developed, the interaction of US-Soviet strategic force and arms control processes during these phases, and the domestic debates which have accompanied US strategic nuclear policy developments. In particular, the study focuses on the major contending views which continue to characterize the debate concerning US strategic nuclear policy. The study assesses the implications of the contending views represented in what is commonly referred to as the counterforce-countervalue debate, particularly as they relate to the perception of what constitutes a credible US deterrent posture, and the corresponding alternatives that these views bring with them for making US strategic nuclear policy and force structure decisions. The arms control process, in general, and SALT I and SALT II in particular, is discussed as an integral and dynamic component of the strategic debate, fundamentally affecting the nation's security policies. The implications of modern weapons technology, and the problems inherent in preserving strategic stability between adversary nations with asymmetries in military force structures and doctrines, are also discussed. Further, the study focuses on the question of whether or not nuclear superiority can be considered relevant under the contemporary international conditions

  20. The real thing is something else

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Smed

    2008-01-01

    The trailer to Lady in the Lake (1947) promises an experience of the real which it will provide by having the camera assume Philip Marlowe's first person perspective throughout. Critics have discounted the experiment for a variety of reasons. Adopting a phenomenological perspective and comparing ...... the film to RoboCop (1987), Henrik Smed Nielsen suggests an original reason why its first person perspective "just does not feel right." Udgivelsesdato: 16 Juni...

  1. The Effects of Accounting Treatment and Financial Crisis on the Stock Option Plans of Italian Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Avallone

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Many studies state that favourable accounting treatment has been one of the main reasons behind employee stock options. In addition, stock options have recently been the target of growing criticism with a possible influence on incentive effectiveness and outrage costs. In such a perspective, the main purpose of the paper is to explore the impact of IFRS 2 and of the recent financial crisis on stock option compensation. Empirical evidence suggests that: (i IFRS 2 did not have a significant effect on stock option granting, (ii the issue of stock options is less likely to occur during the financial crisis.

  2. Real Forestry for Real Estate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Jennifer; Fisher, Jason

    2013-01-01

    Virginia is poised to see an unprecedented change in forest land ownership. To provide new landowners with information on sustainable forest management, we developed a two-part program, Real Forestry for Real Estate. First, we assembled New Landowner Packets, which contain a variety of sustainable forest management resources. Second, two…

  3. Options on capacity imbalance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roggen, M.

    2002-01-01

    Since the start of this year, the Dutch energy company Nuon has been using a computer system to formulate real-time responses to national capacity imbalances in the electricity supply market. The work earns Nuon a fixed fee from TenneT (Dutch Transmission System Operator) and ensures a more stable imbalance price for everyone. The key to success has been the decision to start the project from scratch [nl

  4. How far can various control options take us in terms of increased hydraulic capacity under wet weather conditions?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Anitha Kumari; Guildal, T.; Thomsen, H. A. R.

    Many modelling studies have demonstrated that the hydraulic capacity of the WWTP can be improved by introducing various real time control options, however few studies have demonstrated how effective these controls are in the real world....

  5. Real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    McShane, Edward James

    2013-01-01

    This text surveys practical elements of real function theory, general topology, and functional analysis. Discusses the maximality principle, the notion of convergence, the Lebesgue-Stieltjes integral, function spaces and harmonic analysis. Includes exercises. 1959 edition.

  6. Optional Defaultable Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed N. Abdelghani

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with defaultable markets, one of the main research areas of mathematical finance. It proposes a new approach to the theory of such markets using techniques from the calculus of optional stochastic processes on unusual probability spaces, which was not presented before. The paper is a foundation paper and contains a number of fundamental results on modeling of defaultable markets, pricing and hedging of defaultable claims and results on the probability of default under such conditions. Moreover, several important examples are presented: a new pricing formula for a defaultable bond and a new pricing formula for credit default swap. Furthermore, some results on the absence of arbitrage for markets on unusual probability spaces and markets with default are also provided.

  7. Automotive turbogenerator design options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodgers, C. [ITC, San Diego, CA (United States); McDonald, C. [McDonald Thermal Engineering, La Jolla, CA (United States)

    1998-12-31

    For the small turbogenerator to find reception in the hybrid electric automotive market its major features must be dominated by the following considerations, low cost, high performance, low emissions, compact size and high reliability. Not meeting the first two criteria has been the nemesis of earlier attempts to introduce the small gas turbine for automotive service. With emphasis on the design for low cost and high performance, this paper presents several turbogenerator design flowpath configuration options for the major engine components. The projected evolution from today`s state-of-the-art all metallic engines, to advanced technology ceramic units for service in the early decade of the 21st century, is the major topic of this paper. (author)

  8. The Gel Generator option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, R.E.

    1999-01-01

    The development of a national policy for guaranteeing an ample supply of 99m Tc to nuclear medicine, involves issues which go beyond the means by which radioactivation is achieved. Indeed, in such an exercise the pragmatic dictates of business and the sensitivities of politics must also be taken into account. Furthermore where a preference towards the nuclear reactor or the potential of cyclotrons is being questioned, the debate is incomplete if the only options that are considered are the fission-based 99 Mo generator versus the direct cyclotron production of 99m Tc. There is a third option (also neutron γ-based), an alternative to the fission 99 Mo generator, which ought not be overlooked. The application of low specific activity (n,γ) 99 Mo to a new type of generator, the Gel Generator, has been the focus of much research, particularly in Australia and more recently in China. After the initial concept had been established in the laboratory, the Australian researchers then undertook a comprehensive program of tests on the Gel Generator to assess its potential, either in the clinical laboratory or the centralised radiopharmacy, for supplying 99m Tc suitable for nuclear medicine. The outcome of this program was a clear indication that the Gel Generator innovation had the capability to provide both technical and economic advantages to the nuclear medicine industry. These advantages are described. Since that time the Gel Generator has been selected for routine use in China where it now satisfies more than 30% of the 99m Tc demand. (author)

  9. RTP as an Optional Service: It's Alive, But Is It Well?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldman, Charles; Barbose, Galen; Neenan, Bernie

    2006-03-10

    Economists have advocated for real-time pricing (RTP) of electricity on the basis of the gains in economic efficiency that would result from charging customers the contemporaneous marginal cost of supplying electricity instead of the average cost. In recent years, RTP has also become the subject of interest in a variety of policy contexts, including integrated resource planning initiatives, ongoing efforts to improve efficiency and reliability in competitive electricity markets, and implementation of default service in states with retail choice. Most experience with RTP has been as an optional service, that is, a self-selecting alternative to the standard utility service. By our count, approximately 70 utilities in the U.S. offered an optional RTP program at some point over the past 20 years. However, many programs are now defunct. In 2003, 47 utilities in the U.S. were still offering an optional RTP program, on either a pilot or permanent basis (see Figure 1). In addition, 10 utilities in states with retail choice currently offer RTP as the default service for large customers that are not under contract with a competitive supplier. Another two utilities have received regulatory approval to do so in the next few years. Although the results of a few optional RTP programs have been publicized, the vast majority of programs have operated in relative obscurity. To provide a wider perspective on utility and customer experience with RTP, we surveyed 43 optional RTP programs offered in 2003. We interviewed RTP program managers and other utility staff, and reviewed publicly available sources, including key regulatory documents and program evaluations. Based on this research, we identified trends related to RTP program history and outlook, program design and implementation, customer participation, and participant price response. The results are both surprising and instructive. We conclude that RTP is indeed alive but is not prospering as well it could. Thus, we offer a

  10. Transportation Options | Climate Neutral Research Campuses | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Transportation Options Transportation Options Transportation to, from, and within a research campus from business travel often enlarge the footprint more than expected. To understand options for climate

  11. Soft options. Sanfte Alternativen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lutz, R

    1981-01-01

    This collection of contributions made by supporters of the ''soft approach'' is intended to provide an insight into a conceivable future which is quite different from traditional ideas on social and economic developments based on the usual economic thinking and conventional energy sources. The chapter entitled ''The new world view'' shows the way from a machine-like paradigm to a living example in science. In the chapter entitled ''Women are organizing their future'' female perspectives and concepts of solutions are described. In the chapter ''Eco-tecture'' examples of living architecture and of environment formation are presented. In the chapter ''Soft technology'' approaches to an ecology-oriented technology are discussed, and in the chapter ''Network and future workshops'' novel forms of organization and communication are described.

  12. Mouse-tracking evidence for parallel anticipatory option evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cranford, Edward A; Moss, Jarrod

    2017-12-23

    In fast-paced, dynamic tasks, the ability to anticipate the future outcome of a sequence of events is crucial to quickly selecting an appropriate course of action among multiple alternative options. There are two classes of theories that describe how anticipation occurs. Serial theories assume options are generated and evaluated one at a time, in order of quality, whereas parallel theories assume simultaneous generation and evaluation. The present research examined the option evaluation process during a task designed to be analogous to prior anticipation tasks, but within the domain of narrative text comprehension. Prior research has relied on indirect, off-line measurement of the option evaluation process during anticipation tasks. Because the movement of the hand can provide a window into underlying cognitive processes, online metrics such as continuous mouse tracking provide more fine-grained measurements of cognitive processing as it occurs in real time. In this study, participants listened to three-sentence stories and predicted the protagonists' final action by moving a mouse toward one of three possible options. Each story was presented with either one (control condition) or two (distractor condition) plausible ending options. Results seem most consistent with a parallel option evaluation process because initial mouse trajectories deviated further from the best option in the distractor condition compared to the control condition. It is difficult to completely rule out all possible serial processing accounts, although the results do place constraints on the time frame in which a serial processing explanation must operate.

  13. Real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Loeb, Peter A

    2016-01-01

    This textbook is designed for a year-long course in real analysis taken by beginning graduate and advanced undergraduate students in mathematics and other areas such as statistics, engineering, and economics. Written by one of the leading scholars in the field, it elegantly explores the core concepts in real analysis and introduces new, accessible methods for both students and instructors. The first half of the book develops both Lebesgue measure and, with essentially no additional work for the student, general Borel measures for the real line. Notation indicates when a result holds only for Lebesgue measure. Differentiation and absolute continuity are presented using a local maximal function, resulting in an exposition that is both simpler and more general than the traditional approach. The second half deals with general measures and functional analysis, including Hilbert spaces, Fourier series, and the Riesz representation theorem for positive linear functionals on continuous functions with compact support....

  14. Option-implied term structures

    OpenAIRE

    Vogt, Erik

    2014-01-01

    The illiquidity of long-maturity options has made it difficult to study the term structures of option spanning portfolios. This paper proposes a new estimation and inference framework for these option-implied term structures that addresses long-maturity illiquidity. By building a sieve estimator around the risk-neutral valuation equation, the framework theoretically justifies (fat-tailed) extrapolations beyond truncated strikes and between observed maturities while remaining nonparametric. Ne...

  15. Portfolio insurance using traded options

    OpenAIRE

    Machado-Santos, Carlos

    2001-01-01

    Literature concerning the institutional use of options indicates that the main purpose of option trading is to provide investors with the opportunity to create return distributions previously unavailable, considering that options provide the means to manipulate portfolio returns. In such a context, this study intends to analyse the returns of insured portfolios generated by hedging strategies on underlying stock portfolios. Because dynamic hedging is too expensive, we have hedged the stock po...

  16. Synroc processing options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rozsa, R.B.; Hoenig, C.L.

    1981-01-01

    Synroc is a titanate-based ceramic material currently being developed for immobilizing high-level nuclear reactor wastes in solid form. Synroc D is a unique variation of Synroc. It can contain the high-level defense wastes, particularly those in storage at the Savannah River Plant. In this report, we review the early development of the initial Synroc process, discuss modification and other options that simplify it overall, and recommend the future direction of research and development in the processing area. A reference Synroc process is described briefly and contrasted with the Savannah River Laboratory glass-based reference case. Preliminary engineering layouts show Synroc to be a more complex processing operation and, thus, more expensive than the glass-based process. However, we believe that simplifications, which will significantly reduce the cost difference, are possible. Further research and development will continue in the areas of slurry processing, fluidized bed calcination, and mineralization. This last will use sintering, hot uniaxial pressing, or hot isostatic pressing

  17. Nuclear technology options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salvatores, Massimo

    2013-01-01

    Different strategies and motivations in different countries have led to diverse options. In Europe the SNETP (Sustainable Nuclear Energy Technology Platform) has the objective of developing R&D supporting GEN-II (present) and GEN-III nuclear systems under development; allowing sustainability and minimisation of waste burden, promoting advanced Gen-IV Fast Reactors; and accounting for a Nuclear Cogeneration Industrial Initiative. A remarkable initiative in the USA has been the promotion of small modular reactors (SMRs) – at less than 300 MWe in capacity, much smaller than typical reactors – which can be an ideal choice for (remote) areas which cannot support a larger reactor. Compact scalable design offers a host of potential safety, construction and economic benefits. More “upbeat” strategies are expected in other areas of the world where significant increase in nuclear energy demand is predicted in the next decades. If this growth materialises, future fuel cycles characteristics, feasibility and acceptability will be crucial. This paper will discuss different scenarios for future fuel cycles, resources optimisation and/or waste minimization, the range from full fast reactor deployment to phase-out, management of spent nuclear fuel and the significant potential benefits of advanced cycles. The next 45 years will be dominated by deployment of standard large or medium size plants operating for 60 years. Available resources do allow it. However, fuel cycle will be a growing and most challenging issue and early assessments will be needed for public acceptance and policy decisions.

  18. Optional carbon capture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alderson, T.; Scott, S.; Griffiths, J. [Jacobs Engineering, London (United Kingdom)

    2007-07-01

    In the case of IGCC power plants, carbon capture can be carried out before combustion. The carbon monoxide in the syngas is catalytically shifted to carbon dioxide and then captured in a standard gas absorption system. However, the insertion of a shift converter into an existing IGCC plant with no shift would mean a near total rebuild of the gasification waste heat recovery, gas treatment system and HRSG, with only the gasifier and gas turbine retaining most of their original features. To reduce the extent, cost and time taken for the revamping, the original plant could incorporate the shift, and the plant would then be operated without capture to advantage, and converted to capture mode of operation when commercially appropriate. This paper examines this concept of placing a shift converter into an IGCC plant before capture is required, and operating the same plant first without and then later with CO{sub 2} capture in a European context. The advantages and disadvantages of this 'capture ready' option are discussed. 6 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs.

  19. Treatment Options for Narcolepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barateau, Lucie; Lopez, Régis; Dauvilliers, Yves

    2016-05-01

    Narcolepsy type 1 and narcolepsy type 2 are central disorders of hypersomnolence. Narcolepsy type 1 is characterized by excessive daytime sleepiness and cataplexy and is associated with hypocretin-1 deficiency. On the other hand, in narcolepsy type 2, cerebrospinal fluid hypocretin-1 levels are normal and cataplexy absent. Despite major advances in our understanding of narcolepsy mechanisms, its current management is only symptomatic. Treatment options may vary from a single drug that targets several symptoms, or multiple medications that each treats a specific symptom. In recent years, narcolepsy treatment has changed with the widespread use of modafinil/armodafinil for daytime sleepiness, antidepressants (selective serotonin and dual serotonin and noradrenalin reuptake inhibitors) for cataplexy, and sodium oxybate for both symptoms. Other psychostimulants can also be used, such as methylphenidate, pitolisant and rarely amphetamines, as third-line therapy. Importantly, clinically relevant subjective and objective measures of daytime sleepiness are required to monitor the treatment efficacy and to provide guidance on whether the treatment goals are met. Associated symptoms and comorbid conditions, such as hypnagogic/hypnopompic hallucinations, sleep paralysis, disturbed nighttime sleep, unpleasant dreams, REM- and non REM-related parasomnias, depressive symptoms, overweight/obesity, and obstructive sleep apnea, should also be taken into account and managed, if required. In the near future, the efficacy of new wake-promoting drugs, anticataplectic agents, hypocretin replacement therapy and immunotherapy at the early stages of the disease should also be evaluated.

  20. On the Option Effects of Short-Time Work Arrangements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huisman, Kuno; Thijssen, J.J.J.

    2018-01-01

    We analyse the short term work (STW) regulations that several OECD countries introduced after the 2007 financial crisis. We view these measures as a collection of real options and study the dynamic effect of STW on the endogenous liquidation decision of the firm. While STW delays a firm’s

  1. Perpetual Cancellable American Call Option

    OpenAIRE

    Emmerling, Thomas J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the valuation of a generalized American-style option known as a Game-style call option in an infinite time horizon setting. The specifications of this contract allow the writer to terminate the call option at any point in time for a fixed penalty amount paid directly to the holder. Valuation of a perpetual Game-style put option was addressed by Kyprianou (2004) in a Black-Scholes setting on a non-dividend paying asset. Here, we undertake a similar analysis for the perpetua...

  2. Option price and market instability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

    2017-04-01

    An option pricing formula, for which the price of an option depends on both the value of the underlying security as well as the velocity of the security, has been proposed in Baaquie and Yang (2014). The FX (foreign exchange) options price was empirically studied in Baaquie et al., (2014), and it was found that the model in general provides an excellent fit for all strike prices with a fixed model parameters-unlike the Black-Scholes option price Hull and White (1987) that requires the empirically determined implied volatility surface to fit the option data. The option price proposed in Baaquie and Cao Yang (2014) did not fit the data during the crisis of 2007-2008. We make a hypothesis that the failure of the option price to fit data is an indication of the market's large deviation from its near equilibrium behavior due to the market's instability. Furthermore, our indicator of market's instability is shown to be more accurate than the option's observed volatility. The market prices of the FX option for various currencies are studied in the light of our hypothesis.

  3. Treatment Option Overview (Myelodysplastic/Myeloproliferative Neoplasms)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ...

  4. Probabilistic methods in exotic option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anderluh, J.H.M.

    2007-01-01

    The thesis presents three ways of calculating the Parisian option price as an illustration of probabilistic methods in exotic option pricing. Moreover options on commidities are considered and double-sided barrier options in a compound Poisson framework.

  5. Survey and selection of assessment methodologies for GAVE options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weterings, R.

    1999-05-01

    The Dutch government is interested in the possibilities for a market introduction of new gaseous and liquid energy carriers. To this purpose the GAVE-programme was recently set up. This study is carried out within the framework of the GAVE-programme and aims at the selection of methodologies for assessing the technological, economic, ecological and social perspectives of these new energy options (so-called GAVE-options). Based on the results of these assessments the Dutch ministries of Housing, Planning and Environment (VROM) and Economic Affairs (EZ) will decide at the end of 1999 about starting demonstration projects of promising energy carriers

  6. Real Heroes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denenberg, Dennis

    2001-01-01

    Presents stories taken from the book, "50 American Heroes Every Kid Should Meet," explaining that children need to learn about the value of real-life human accomplishments (versus those of athletes, television personalities, and rock stars). The heroes include Elizabeth Blackwell, first American woman doctor; George C. Marshall,…

  7. Option pricing: a flexible tool to disseminate shared savings contracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedberg, Mark W; Buendia, Anthony M; Lauderdale, Katherine E; Hussey, Peter S

    2013-08-01

    Due to volatility in healthcare costs, shared savings contracts can create systematic financial losses for payers, especially when contracting with smaller providers. To improve the business case for shared savings, we calculated the prices of financial options that payers can "sell" to providers to offset these losses. Using 2009 to 2010 member-level total cost of care data from a large commercial health plan, we calculated option prices by applying a bootstrap simulation procedure. We repeated these simulations for providers of sizes ranging from 500 to 60,000 patients and for shared savings contracts with and without key design features (minimum savings thresholds,bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk) and under assumptions of zero, 1%, and 2% real cost reductions due to the shared savings contracts. Assuming no real cost reduction and a 50% shared savings rate, per patient option prices ranged from $225 (3.1% of overall costs) for 500-patient providers to $23 (0.3%) for 60,000-patient providers. Introducing minimum savings thresholds, bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk reduced these option prices. Option prices were highly sensitive to the magnitude of real cost reductions. If shared savings contracts cause 2% reductions in total costs, option prices fall to zero for all but the smallest providers. Calculating the prices of financial options that protect payers and providers from downside risk can inject flexibility into shared savings contracts, extend such contracts to smaller providers, and clarify the tradeoffs between different contract designs, potentially speeding the dissemination of shared savings.

  8. Analysis of Options Contract, Option Pricing in Agricultural Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Tamidy

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Risk is an essential component in the production and sale of agricultural products. Due to the nature of agricultural products, the people who act in this area including farmers and businesspersons encounter unpredictable fluctuations of prices. On the other hand, the firms that process agricultural products also face fluctuation of price of agricultural inputs. Given that the Canola is considered as one of the inputs of product processing factories, control of unpredictable fluctuations of the price of this product would increase the possibility of correct decision making for farmers and managers of food processing industries. The best available tool for control and management of the price risk is the use of future markets and options. It is evident that the pricing is the main pillar in every trade. Therefore, offering a fair price for the options will be very important. In fact, options trading in the options market create cost insurance stopped. In this way, which can reduce the risks of deflation created in the future, if the person entitled to the benefits of the price increase occurs in the future. Unlike the futures, market where the seller had to deliver the product on time, in the options market, there is no such compulsion. In addition, this is one of the strengths of this option contract, because if there is not enough product for delivery to the futures market as result of chilling, in due course, the farmers suffer, but in the options market there will be a loss. In this study, the setup options of rape, as a product, as well as inputs has been paid for industry. Materials and Methods: In this section. The selection criteria of the disposal of asset base for valuation of European put options and call option is been introduced. That for obtain this purpose, some characteristics of the goods must considered: 1-Unpredictable fluctuations price of underlying asset 2 -large underlying asset cash market 3- The possibility

  9. Bounds for Asian basket options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deelstra, Griselda; Diallo, Ibrahima; Vanmaele, Michèle

    2008-09-01

    In this paper we propose pricing bounds for European-style discrete arithmetic Asian basket options in a Black and Scholes framework. We start from methods used for basket options and Asian options. First, we use the general approach for deriving upper and lower bounds for stop-loss premia of sums of non-independent random variables as in Kaas et al. [Upper and lower bounds for sums of random variables, Insurance Math. Econom. 27 (2000) 151-168] or Dhaene et al. [The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: theory, Insurance Math. Econom. 31(1) (2002) 3-33]. We generalize the methods in Deelstra et al. [Pricing of arithmetic basket options by conditioning, Insurance Math. Econom. 34 (2004) 55-57] and Vanmaele et al. [Bounds for the price of discrete sampled arithmetic Asian options, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 185(1) (2006) 51-90]. Afterwards we show how to derive an analytical closed-form expression for a lower bound in the non-comonotonic case. Finally, we derive upper bounds for Asian basket options by applying techniques as in Thompson [Fast narrow bounds on the value of Asian options, Working Paper, University of Cambridge, 1999] and Lord [Partially exact and bounded approximations for arithmetic Asian options, J. Comput. Finance 10 (2) (2006) 1-52]. Numerical results are included and on the basis of our numerical tests, we explain which method we recommend depending on moneyness and time-to-maturity.

  10. For the last time: stock options are an expense.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodie, Zvi; Kaplan, Robert S; Merton, Robert C

    2003-03-01

    Should stock options be recorded as an expense on a company's income statement and balance sheet, or should they remain where they are, relegated to footnotes? The extraordinary boom in share prices during the Internet bubble made critics of option expensing look like spoilsports. But since the crash, the debate has returned with a vengeance. And no wonder: The authors believe the case for expensing options is overwhelming. In this article, Nobel Iaureate Robert Merton, one of the inventors of the Black-Scholes option-pricing model; his coauthor on the classic textbook Finance, Zvi Bodie; and Robert Kaplan, creator of the Balanced Scorecard, examine and dismiss the principal claims put forward by those who continue to oppose options expensing. They demonstrate that stock-option grants do indeed have real cash-flow implications that need to be reported. They show that effective ways certainly exist to quantify those implications. They detail the distortions that relegating stock-option accounting to footnotes creates. And they show why reporting option costs should in no way hamper young companies in their efforts to provide incentives. Options are indeed a powerful incentive, the authors agree, and failing to record a transaction that creates such powerful effects is economically indefensible. Worse, it encourages companies to favor options over alternative incentive systems. It is not the proper role of accounting standards, the authors argue, to distort executive and employee compensation by subsidizing one particular form of compensation and no other. Companies should choose compensation methods according to their economic benefits--not the way they are reported.

  11. Multifractal analysis of implied volatility in index options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, GabJin

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, we analyze the statistical and the non-linear properties of the log-variations in implied volatility for the CAC40, DAX and S& P500 daily index options. The price of an index option is generally represented by its implied volatility surface, including its smile and skew properties. We utilize a Lévy process model as the underlying asset to deepen our understanding of the intrinsic property of the implied volatility in the index options and estimate the implied volatility surface. We find that the options pricing models with the exponential Lévy model can reproduce the smile or sneer features of the implied volatility that are observed in real options markets. We study the variation in the implied volatility for at-the-money index call and put options, and we find that the distribution function follows a power-law distribution with an exponent of 3.5 ≤ γ ≤ 4.5. Especially, the variation in the implied volatility exhibits multifractal spectral characteristics, and the global financial crisis has influenced the complexity of the option markets.

  12. Procurement Options for New Renewable Electricity Supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kreycik, C. E.; Couture, T. D.; Cory, K. S.

    2011-12-01

    State renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policies require utilities and load-serving entities (LSEs) to procure renewable energy generation. Utility procurement options may be a function of state policy and regulatory preferences, and in some cases, may be dictated by legislative authority. Utilities and LSEs commonly use competitive solicitations or bilateral contracting to procure renewable energy supply to meet RPS mandates. However, policymakers and regulators in several states are beginning to explore the use of alternatives, namely feed-in tariffs (FITs) and auctions to procure renewable energy supply. This report evaluates four procurement strategies (competitive solicitations, bilateral contracting, FITs, and auctions) against four main criteria: (1) pricing; (2) complexity and efficiency of the procurement process; (3) impacts on developers access to markets; and (4) ability to complement utility decision-making processes. These criteria were chosen because they take into account the perspective of each group of stakeholders: ratepayers, regulators, utilities, investors, and developers.

  13. Nuclear Option in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, K. I.

    2002-01-01

    With sixteen(16) operating nuclear units in Korea, the share of nuclear power generation reached 41% of the total electric power generation as of December 2000. A prediction is that it would further increase to 44.5% by year 2015 according to the national long term power development plan. Four units are currently under construction with 6 more units in order. With little domestic energy resource and increasing energy demand to support national economic growth, Korea has chosen nuclear power as one of the major energy sources to ensure stable power supply and to promote energy self-sufficiency. It has been recognized that nuclear power in Korea is not a selective option but rather a necessity. The Korean nuclear power development started with construction of a 600 MWe size reactor that was designed and constructed by foreign vendors. As the national grid capacity became larger, the size of nuclear units increased to 1000 MWe class. In the mean time, the need for nuclear technology self-reliance grew not only in operation and maintenance but also in construction, manufacturing and design. For this, a nuclear technology self-reliance program has been embarked with the support of the Government and utility, and the 1000 MWe class KSNP(Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant) has been developed. The KSNPs are currently being designed, manufactured, constructed and operated by relevant Korean entities themselves. To fit into a larger capacity national grid and also to improve nuclear economic competitiveness, the 1400 MWe class KNGR(Korean Next Generation Reactor) design has been developed uprating the 1000 MWe KSNP design. Its construction project is currently under contract negotiation, and is planned to be finished by 2010. In the mean time, to be ready for future electric power market deregulation, the 600 MWe class small KSNP design is being developed downsizing the KSNP. A modular small size reactor, SMART(System Integrated Modular Advanced Reactor) is also being

  14. Aluminum industry options paper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-10-01

    In 1990, Canada's producers of aluminum (third largest in the world) emitted 10 million tonnes of carbon dioxide and equivalent, corresponding to 6.4 tonnes of greenhouse gas intensity per tonne of aluminum. In 2000, the projection is that on a business-as-usual (BAU) basis Canadian producers now producing 60 per cent more aluminum than in 1990, will emit 10.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide and equivalent, corresponding to a GHG intensity of 4.2 tonnes per tonne of aluminum. This improvement is due to production being based largely on hydro-electricity, and partly because in general, Canadian plants are modern, with technology that is relatively GHG-friendly. The Aluminum Association of Canada estimates that based on anticipated production, and under a BAU scenario, GHG emissions from aluminum production will rise by 18 per cent by 2010 and by 30 per cent by 2020. GHG emissions could be reduced below the BAU forecast first, by new control and monitoring systems at some operations at a cost of $4.5 to 7.5 million per smelter. These systems could reduce carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 0.8 million tonnes per year. A second alternative would require installation of breaker feeders which would further reduce perfluorocarbon (PFC) emissions by 0.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Cost of the breakers feeders would be in the order of $200 million per smelter. The third option calls for the the shutting down of some of the smelters with older technology by 2015. In this scenario GHG emissions would be reduced by 2010 by 0.8 million tonnes per year of carbon dioxide equivalent. However, the cost in this case would be about $1.36 billion. The industry would support measures that would encourage the first two sets of actions, which would produce GHG emissions from aluminum production in Canada of about 10.2 million tonnes per year of carbon dioxide equivalent, or about two per cent above 1990 levels with double the aluminum production of 1990. Credit for

  15. REAL ESTATE PURCHASE AGREEMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bujorel FLOREA

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The study presented herein represents a field with good present and future perspectives, especially because real estate property is not under the incidence of a single normative act regarding the sale-purchase agreement of such goods, and given the fact that there are specific legal provisions with respect to various real estate categories and the localization of such property. The article deals with the sale-purchase agreement of various real estate categories, such as fields, buildings, the correspondent lots, urban area, farm, and forests fields, focusing on some particularities. A special care is attributed to examining the applicable laws with regard to the purchase agreements of field lands, the special conditions to be taken into account, the persons that may act as buyers, including foreigners, those without citizenship, and legal persons of a nationality other than Romanian. Finally, a special concern is given to the formalities required for legally exerting the pre-emptive right and the applicable sanctions in that respect.

  16. Cognitive and Affective Aspects of Creative Option Generation in Every Day Life Situations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Sophie Schweizer

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Which factors influence a human being’s ability to develop new perspectives and be creative? This ability is pivotal for any context in which new cognitions are required, such as innovative endeavors in science and art, or psychotherapeutic settings. In this article we seek to bring together two research programs investigating the generation of creative options: On the one hand, research on option generation in the decision-making literature and, on the other hand, cognitive and clinical creativity research. Previous decision-making research has largely neglected the topic of generating creative options. Experiments typically provided participants with a clear set of options to choose from, but everyday life situations are less structured and allow countless ways to react. Before choosing an option, agents have to self-generate a set of options to choose from. Such option generation processes have only recently moved to the center of attention. The present study examines the creative quality of self-generated options in daily life situations. A student sample (N = 48 generated options for action in 70 shortly described everyday life scenarios. We rated the quality of the options on three dimensions of creativity- originality, feasibility, and divergence - and linked these qualities to option generation fluency (speed and number of generated options, situational features like the familiarity and the affective valence of the situation in which the options were generated, and trait measures of cognitive performance. We found that when situations were familiar to the participant, greater negative affective valence of the situation was associated with more originality and divergence of generated options. We also found that a higher option generation fluency was associated with a greater maximal originality of options. We complete our article with a joint research agenda for researchers in the decision-making field focusing on option generation and

  17. Cognitive and Affective Aspects of Creative Option Generation in Everyday Life Situations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweizer, T Sophie; Schmalenberger, Katja M; Eisenlohr-Moul, Tory A; Mojzisch, Andreas; Kaiser, Stefan; Funke, Joachim

    2016-01-01

    Which factors influence a human being's ability to develop new perspectives and be creative? This ability is pivotal for any context in which new cognitions are required, such as innovative endeavors in science and art, or psychotherapeutic settings. In this article, we seek to bring together two research programs investigating the generation of creative options: On the one hand, research on option generation in the decision-making literature and, on the other hand, cognitive and clinical creativity research. Previous decision-making research has largely neglected the topic of generating creative options. Experiments typically provided participants with a clear set of options to choose from, but everyday life situations are less structured and allow countless ways to react. Before choosing an option, agents have to self-generate a set of options to choose from. Such option generation processes have only recently moved to the center of attention. The present study examines the creative quality of self-generated options in daily life situations. A student sample (N = 48) generated options for action in 70 briefly described everyday life scenarios. We rated the quality of the options on three dimensions of creativity- originality, feasibility, and divergence -and linked these qualities to option generation fluency (speed and number of generated options), situational features like the familiarity and the affective valence of the situation in which the options were generated, and trait measures of cognitive performance. We found that when situations were familiar to the participant, greater negative affective valence of the situation was associated with more originality and divergence of generated options. We also found that a higher option generation fluency was associated with a greater maximal originality of options. We complete our article with a joint research agenda for researchers in the decision-making field focusing on option generation and, on the other hand

  18. Real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    DiBenedetto, Emmanuele

    2016-01-01

    The second edition of this classic textbook presents a rigorous and self-contained introduction to real analysis with the goal of providing a solid foundation for future coursework and research in applied mathematics. Written in a clear and concise style, it covers all of the necessary subjects as well as those often absent from standard introductory texts. Each chapter features a “Problems and Complements” section that includes additional material that briefly expands on certain topics within the chapter and numerous exercises for practicing the key concepts. The first eight chapters explore all of the basic topics for training in real analysis, beginning with a review of countable sets before moving on to detailed discussions of measure theory, Lebesgue integration, Banach spaces, functional analysis, and weakly differentiable functions. More topical applications are discussed in the remaining chapters, such as maximal functions, functions of bounded mean oscillation, rearrangements, potential theory, a...

  19. Elementary real and complex analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Shilov, Georgi E

    1996-01-01

    In this book the renowned Russian mathematician Georgi E. Shilov brings his unique perspective to real and complex analysis, an area of perennial interest in mathematics. Although there are many books available on the topic, the present work is specially designed for undergraduates in mathematics, science and engineering. A high level of mathematical sophistication is not required.The book begins with a systematic study of real numbers, understood to be a set of objects satisfying certain definite axioms. The concepts of a mathematical structure and an isomorphism are introduced in Chapter 2,

  20. What an option is worth for an exploration opportunity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacKay, J.A.; Lerche, I.

    1995-01-01

    The reason that a corporation might want to take an option on an opportunity is to wait until more information becomes available before committing to the decision to drill. For instance, in a situation where an opportunity is one of the first prospects in a new play trend, there is often very little known (as opposed to surmised) about the potential gain, and the chances of success are also often poorly determined. Thus, until the estimates of costs, gains, and success chances are firmed up in the future by drilling information from other operators, the corporation would prefer to hold off on the decision to drill a particular prospect. Recently Dixit and Pindyck have persuasively argued qualitatively that an options approach should be taken to capital investment in any business field because, opportunities are options--rights but not obligations to take some action in the future and, as soon as you begin thinking of investment opportunities as options, the premise (that investment decisions can be reversed if conditions change or, if they cannot be reversed, that they are now-or-never propositions) changes. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and the choice of timing alter the investment decision in critical ways. From an oil industry perspective Dixit and Pindyck eloquently provide the rationale for considering an option position rather than dealing only with net present value considerations. The ability to calculate the worth of an option to a hydrocarbon exploration opportunity is what this article is about

  1. Energy policy options for Illinois. Proceedings. [26 papers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1977-01-01

    Twenty-six papers presented at the Fifth Annual Oil Illinois Energy Conference are categorized into five sections, namely: An overview of U.S. and Illinois Energy Policy; Energy Policy; Conservation--Solar--Biomass and Solid Wastes; Energy Policy; Petroleum and Natural Gas; Energy Policy; Coal and Electric Utilities; and Economic and Consumer Concerns. One paper, A Perspective on Long-Range Nuclear Energy Options, by William O. Harms has previously appeared in EAPA 4: 1364. (MCW)

  2. The role of managerial stock option programs in governance: evidence from REIT stock repurchases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghosh, C.; Giambona, E.; Harding, J.P.; Sezer, O.; Sirmans, C.F.

    2010-01-01

    This article examines the role of stock option programs and executive holdings of stock options in real estate investment trust (REIT) governance. We study the issue by analyzing how the market reaction to a stock repurchase announcement varies as a function of the individual REIT's governance

  3. Erectile dysfunction management options in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afolayan, Anthony Jide; Yakubu, Musa Toyin

    2009-04-01

    In Nigeria, the prevalence of erectile dysfunction (ED) among patients attending primary care clinics, age-standardized to the U.S. population in 2000 is 57.4%. This is considered high enough to warrant the attention of scientist for critical studies and analysis. The high ED prevalence is associated with etiologies such as psychosexual factors, chronic medical conditions, and some lifestyles. ED constitutes a major public health problem, influencing the patient's well-being and quality of life. It also leads to broken homes and marriages, psychological, social, and physical morbidity. To give an account of various ED management options in Nigeria. Review of peer-reviewed literature, questionnaire, and ethnobotanical survey to some indigenous herb sellers and herbalists. Cross cultural perspectives of ED management in Nigeria. The review suggests that traditional (phytotherapy, zootherapy, and occultism) and nontraditional, orthodox practice (drug therapy, psychological, and behavioral counseling) are applicable to ED management in Nigeria. This review should help in creating awareness into various options available for managing ED in the country, but does not recommend self medication of any form, be it the use of orthodox or herbal remedy.

  4. The Amnesiac Lookback Option: Selectively Monitored Lookback Options and Cryptocurrencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho-Chun Herbert Chang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a strategy to make the lookback option cheaper and more practical, and suggests the use of its properties to reduce risk exposure in cryptocurrency markets through blockchain enforced smart contracts and correct for informational inefficiencies surrounding prices and volatility. This paper generalizes partial, discretely-monitored lookback options that dilute premiums by selecting a subset of specified periods to determine payoff, which we call amnesiac lookback options. Prior literature on discretely-monitored lookback options considers the number of periods and assumes equidistant lookback periods in pricing partial lookback options. This study by contrast considers random sampling of lookback periods and compares resulting payoff of the call, put and spread options under floating and fixed strikes. Amnesiac lookbacks are priced with Monte Carlo simulations of Gaussian random walks under equidistant and random periods. Results are compared to analytic and binomial pricing models for the same derivatives. Simulations show diminishing marginal increases to the fair price as the number of selected periods is increased. The returns correspond to a Hill curve whose parameters are set by interest rate and volatility. We demonstrate over-pricing under equidistant monitoring assumptions with error increasing as the lookback periods decrease. An example of a direct implication for event trading is when shock is forecasted but its timing uncertain, equidistant sampling produces a lower error on the true maximum than random choice. We conclude that the instrument provides an ideal space for investors to balance their risk, and as a prime candidate to hedge extreme volatility. We discuss the application of the amnesiac lookback option and path-dependent options to cryptocurrencies and blockchain commodities in the context of smart contracts.

  5. Exotic Options: a Chooser Option and its Pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raimonda Martinkutė-Kaulienė

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial instruments traded in the markets and investors’ situation in such markets are getting more and more complex. This leads to more complex derivative structures used for hedging that are harder to analyze and which risk is harder managed. Because of the complexity of these instruments, the basic characteristics of many exotic options may sometimes be not clearly understood. Most scientific studies have been focused on developing models for pricing various types of exotic options, but it is important to study their unique characteristics and to understand them correctly in order to use them in proper market situations. The paper examines main aspects of options, emphasizing the variety of exotic options and their place in financial markets and risk management process. As the exact valuation of exotic options is quite difficult, the article deals with the theoretical and practical aspects of pricing of chooser options that suggest a broad range of usage and application in different market conditions. The calculations made in the article showed that the price of the chooser is closely correlated with the choice time and low correlated with its strike price. So the first mentioned factor should be taken into consideration when making appropriate hedging and investing decisions.

  6. Options identification programme for demonstration of nuclear desalination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-08-01

    This report responds to Resolutions GC(XXXVIII)/RES/7 in 1994 and GC(XXXIX)/RES/15 in 1995 at the IAEA General Conference, which requested the Director General to initiate a two year Options Identification Programme to identify and define practical options for demonstration of nuclear desalination and to submit a report on this programme to the General Conference of 1996. This programme was implemented by a Working Group, consisting of experts from interested Member States and IAEA staff, through a combination of periodic meetings and individual work assignments. It resulted in identification of a few practical options, based on reactor and desalination technologies which are themselves readily available without further development being required at the time of demonstration. The report thus provides a perspective how to proceed with demonstration of nuclear desalination, which is expected to help solving the potable water supply problem in the next century. Refs, figs, tabs

  7. 48 CFR 552.217-71 - Notice Regarding Option(s).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Notice Regarding Option(s... Notice Regarding Option(s). As prescribed in 517.208(b), insert the following provision: Notice Regarding Option(s) (NOV 1992) The General Services Administration (GSA) has included an option to [Insert...

  8. Option Pricing using Realized Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stentoft, Lars Peter

    dynamics to be used for option pricing purposes in this framework, and we show that our model explains some of the mispricings found when using traditional option pricing models based on interdaily data. We then show explicitly that a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic model with Normal...... Inverse Gaussian distributed innovations is the corresponding benchmark model when only daily data is used. Finally, we perform an empirical analysis using stock options for three large American companies, and we show that in all cases our model performs significantly better than the corresponding...... benchmark model estimated on return data alone. Hence the paper provides evidence on the value of using high frequency data for option pricing purposes....

  9. Treatment Option Overview (Ewing Sarcoma)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Ewing Sarcoma Treatment Osteosarcoma Treatment Research Ewing Sarcoma Treatment (PDQ®)–Patient Version General Information About Ewing Sarcoma ... started or in another part of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types ...

  10. Treatment Option Overview (Kaposi Sarcoma)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Treatment Childhood Vascular Tumors Treatment Research Kaposi Sarcoma Treatment (PDQ®)–Patient Version General Information About Kaposi Sarcoma ... Certain factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment ...

  11. 77 FR 25319 - Commodity Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-27

    ..., merchants, SDs, commodity funds, futures industry organizations, academics and think tanks, a U.S... particular (i.e., optionality in a contract settling by physical delivery that is used to meet varying demand...

  12. Antihistamines: Understanding Your OTC Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... CorrectlyPain Relievers: Understanding Your OTC OptionsAntacids and Acid Reducers: OTC Relief for Heartburn and Acid RefluxOTC Cough ... Loss and Diet Plans Nutrients and Nutritional Info Sugar and Sugar Substitutes Exercise and Fitness Exercise Basics ...

  13. FS65 Disposition Option Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenz, Tracy R. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-09-25

    This report outlines the options for dispositioning the MOX fuel stored in FS65 containers at LANL. Additional discussion regarding the support equipment for loading and unloading the FS65 transport containers is included at the end of the report.

  14. Essential Tremor (ET): Surgical Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... option for severe depression, epilepsy, Tourette’s syndrome, stroke, addiction, and dementia. Top Focused Ultrasound Thalamotomy The FDA ... ultrasound but in a very different way. This technology uses multiple beams of sound focused in on ...

  15. Evaluating Virtual Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Allen Conover

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Com opções virtuais os ativos subjacentes são informação e as regras que governam o exercício são baseadas nas realidades do reino da informação (infosphere. As opções virtuais podem ser modeladas como opções para comprar alguma informação pagando o custo das operações da informação envolvida. As opções virtuais surgem em diversos estágios da criação do valor. O estágio inicial envolve a observação de fenômenos físicos, com acompanhamento da captação de dados. O refinamento seguinte deve organizar os dados, em bases de dados estruturadas. A informação é selecionada, a partir do armazenamento e sintetizada em um produto da informação (tal como um relatório, um artigo, ou desenho de especificações do produto a ser fabricado no mundo físico. O produto da informação é apresentado, então, ao usuário por meio de uma relação eficiente que não requeira que o usuário seja um perito do campo. As opções virtuais são similares em conceito às opções reais mas, substancialmente, diferentes em seus detalhes, porque as opções reais têm objetos físicos, enquanto os ativos subjacentes e as regras que governam o exercício são baseados nas realidades do mundo físico. Também, quando se exercita uma opção financeira mata-se, tipicamente, a opção, as opções virtuais podem incluir o exercício múltiplo. As opções virtuais podem envolver a volatilidade elevada ou saltar processos e, também, adicionar além, realçando seu valor. A aplicação da teoria de preço das opçãos às opções reais criou ferramentas de análise de valor para tomada de decisão disciplinada, e o potencial e, também, é grande para os instrumentos de apoio para análise de valor de decisão baseada em opções virtuais. Este artigo trata diversas aplicações reais e importantes análises de opções no mundo da informação, incluindo modelos de processo do jump e os modelos para avaliar opções e sintetizar alguns

  16. Effluent treatment options for nuclear thermal propulsion system ground tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipers, L.R.; Brockmann, J.E.

    1992-01-01

    A variety of approaches for handling effluent from nuclear thermal propulsion system ground tests in an environmentally acceptable manner are discussed. The functional requirements of effluent treatment are defined and concept options are presented within the framework of these requirements. System concepts differ primarily in the choice of fission-product retention and waste handling concepts. The concept options considered range from closed cycle (venting the exhaust to a closed volume or recirculating the hydrogen in a closed loop) to open cycle (real time processing and venting of the effluent). This paper reviews the strengths and weaknesses of different methods to handle effluent from nuclear thermal propulsion system ground tests

  17. Perpetual American options within CTRWs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero, Miquel

    2008-06-01

    Continuous-time random walks are a well suited tool for the description of market behaviour at the smallest scale: the tick-to-tick evolution. We will apply this kind of market model to the valuation of perpetual American options: derivatives with no maturity that can be exercised at any time. Our approach leads to option prices that fulfill financial formulas when canonical assumptions on the dynamics governing the process are made, but it is still suitable for more exotic market conditions.

  18. Perpetual American options within CTRW's

    OpenAIRE

    Montero, Miquel

    2007-01-01

    Continuous-time random walks are a well suited tool for the description of market behaviour at the smallest scale: the tick-to-tick evolution. We will apply this kind of market model to the valuation of perpetual American options: derivatives with no maturity that can be exercised at any time. Our approach leads to option prices that fulfil financial formulas when canonical assumptions on the dynamics governing the process are made, but it is still suitable for more exotic market conditions.

  19. 48 CFR 570.401 - Renewal options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Renewal options. 570.401... Requirements 570.401 Renewal options. (a) Exercise of options. Before exercising an option to renew, follow the... survey. Before exercising an option to renew a lease, review current market information to ensure the...

  20. Option Derivatives in Electricity Hedging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Pavlátka

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the high volatility of electricity prices, there is still little demand for electricity power options, and the liquidity on the power exchanges of these power derivatives is quite low. One of the reasons is the uncertainty about how to evaluate these electricity options and about finding the right fair value of this product. Hedging of electricity is associated mainly with products such as futures and forwards. However, due to new trends in electricity trading and hedging, it is also useful to think more about options and the principles for working with them in hedging various portfolio positions and counterparties. We can quite often encounter a situation when we need to have a perfect hedge for our customer’s (end user consuming electricity portfolio, or we have to evaluate the volumetric risk (inability of a customer to predict consumption, which is very similar to selling options. Now comes the moment to compare the effects of using options or futures to hedge these open positions. From a practical viewpoint, the Black-Scholes prices appear to be the best available and the simplest method for evaluating option premiums, but there are some limitations that we have to consider.

  1. Consumer energy conservation options - professional and consumer perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritchie, B.J.R.; Claxton, J.D.; McDougall, G.H.G.

    1980-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to: identify government policies for reducing Canadian consumption of home heating fuel, electricity, and gasoline; assess probable effectiveness of different policy alternatives as a means of reducing consumer energy consumption; and measure the acceptability to Canadian consumers of the different policy alternatives. Interviews were conducted with energy conservation professionals to identify and evaluate existing energy conservation programs, and interviews were conducted with consumers who had evaluated selected programs previously reviewed by the professionals. Information was also gathered on energy conservation activities of consumers surveyed. A directory of 34 energy conservation programs was also compiled. Some of the conclusions reached in this report are as follows. There is a need for an information system to gather data on existing conservation programs in order to increase the knowledge of relevant parties as to the outcomes of operating programs. This would help evaluation and improvement of current programs and suggest new program possibilities. The professionals rated six of the 34 programs highly, including the Energuide and the Canadian Home Insulation Program (CHIP). Retrofitting programs for houses are recommended for continuation and expansion, with some consideration given to linking these kinds of programs with home audit programs. In the private transport sector, any new conservation programs should be thoroughly tested on a small scale before widespread implementation, as evidence indicates that certain programs favorably evaluated by professionals may not be received favorably by consumers. 3 refs., 24 tabs.

  2. Restructuring of the power sector in Romania - options and perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leca, A. [University Politechnica, Bucharest (Romania)

    1999-07-01

    Discusses the Romanian energy sector covering the situation under the Communist government and attempts at restructuring since the fall of Communism. Following the fall of Communism 1989, the power sector remained in State ownership and suffered problems such as a lack of a national energy strategy, a weak institutional framework, and the persistence of monopolistic relationships between suppliers and consumers. In 1997 a new government began a programme of energy reform aiming to, for example, improve energy efficiency, set up an institutional framework, reduce environmental impacts and re-evaluate generation capacities of existing plants and those under construction but political problems have slowed the process down. The paper suggests that privatisation is becoming the only solution to problems in the power sector caused by the deterioration of the economic and social situation in Romania. 8 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Treatment Options by Stage (Pancreatic Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  4. Treatment Options by Stage (Esophageal Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  5. Treatment Options by Stage (Vulvar Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  6. Treatment Options by Stage (Penile Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  7. Treatment Options for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... lymphoma may come back as indolent lymphoma. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  8. Treatment Options for Adult Soft Tissue Sarcoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... reacts to the light. Certain factors affect treatment options and prognosis (chance of recovery). The treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  9. Treatment Options by Stage (Merkel Cell Carcinoma)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... common for Merkel cell carcinoma to recur. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  10. Treatment Options by Stage (Prostate Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  11. Treatment Options by Stage (Adrenocortical Carcinoma)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... affect the prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  12. Treatment Options for Childhood Hodgkin Lymphoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... the lungs , liver , bones, or bone marrow . Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  13. Treatment Options by Stage (Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... examination under a microscope. Certain factors affect treatment options and prognosis (chance of recovery). Treatment options depend ... that does not get better with treatment. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  14. Treatment Options for Adult Hodgkin Lymphoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  15. Treatment Options for Hodgkin Lymphoma during Pregnancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  16. Treatment Option Overview (Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... examination under a microscope. Certain factors affect treatment options and prognosis (chance of recovery). Treatment options depend ... that does not get better with treatment. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  17. Treatment Option Overview (Adult Soft Tissue Sarcoma)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... reacts to the light. Certain factors affect treatment options and prognosis (chance of recovery). The treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  18. Hairy Cell Leukemia Treatment Option Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... or a swollen spleen. Certain factors affect treatment options and prognosis (chance of recovery). The treatment options ... cell leukemia has not responded to treatment. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  19. Treatment Option Overview (Small Intestine Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  20. Treatment Option Overview (Adult Hodgkin Lymphoma)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  1. Treatment Option Overview (Merkel Cell Carcinoma)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... common for Merkel cell carcinoma to recur. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  2. Treatment Option Overview (Childhood Hodgkin Lymphoma)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... the lungs , liver , bones, or bone marrow . Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  3. Treatment Option Overview (Small Cell Lung Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  4. Treatment Option Overview (Adult Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... marrow , or other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  5. Treatment Options for AIDS-Related Lymphoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... nervous system is not primary CNS lymphoma. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  6. Treatment Options for Adult Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... marrow , or other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  7. Treatment Options for Renal Cell Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  8. Treatment Options for Gastrointestinal Carcinoid Tumors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... body. Has not gotten better with treatment. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  9. Treatment Options by Stage (Gastric Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... such as the liver or lymph nodes . Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  10. Treatment Options by Stage (Thyroid Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  11. Treatment Options for Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... of blast cells increases after a remission . Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  12. Treatment Options for Adult Acute Myeloid Leukemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... back in the blood or bone marrow . Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  13. Considerations Regarding ROK Spent Nuclear Fuel Management Options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, Chaim; Forrest, Robert

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we discuss spent fuel management options in the Republic of Korea (ROK) from two interrelated perspectives: Centralized dry cask storage and spent fuel pyroprocessing and burning in sodium fast reactors (SFRs). We argue that the ROK will run out of space for at-reactors spent fuel storage by about the year 2030 and will thus need to transition centralized dry cask storage. Pyroprocessing plant capacity, even if approved and successfully licensed and constructed by that time, will not suffice to handle all the spent fuel discharged annually. Hence centralized dry cask storage will be required even if the pyroprocessing option is successfully developed by 2030. Pyroprocessing is but an enabling technology on the path leading to fissile material recycling and burning in future SFRs. In this regard we discuss two SFR options under development in the U. S.: the Super Prism and the Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR). We note that the U. S. is further along in reactor development than the ROK. The ROK though has acquired more experience, recently in investigating fuel recycling options for SFRs. We thus call for two complementary joint R and D project to be conducted by U. S. and ROK scientists. One leading to the development of a demonstration centralized away-from-reactors spent fuel storage facility. The other involve further R and D on a combined SFR-fuel cycle complex based on the reactor and fuel cycle options discussed in the paper

  14. Designing flexible engineering systems utilizing embedded architecture options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Jeff G.

    This dissertation develops and applies an integrated framework for embedding flexibility in an engineered system architecture. Systems are constantly faced with unpredictability in the operational environment, threats from competing systems, obsolescence of technology, and general uncertainty in future system demands. Current systems engineering and risk management practices have focused almost exclusively on mitigating or preventing the negative consequences of uncertainty. This research recognizes that high uncertainty also presents an opportunity to design systems that can flexibly respond to changing requirements and capture additional value throughout the design life. There does not exist however a formalized approach to designing appropriately flexible systems. This research develops a three stage integrated flexibility framework based on the concept of architecture options embedded in the system design. Stage One defines an eight step systems engineering process to identify candidate architecture options. This process encapsulates the operational uncertainty though scenario development, traces new functional requirements to the affected design variables, and clusters the variables most sensitive to change. The resulting clusters can generate insight into the most promising regions in the architecture to embed flexibility in the form of architecture options. Stage Two develops a quantitative option valuation technique, grounded in real options theory, which is able to value embedded architecture options that exhibit variable expiration behavior. Stage Three proposes a portfolio optimization algorithm, for both discrete and continuous options, to select the optimal subset of architecture options, subject to budget and risk constraints. Finally, the feasibility, extensibility and limitations of the framework are assessed by its application to a reconnaissance satellite system development problem. Detailed technical data, performance models, and cost estimates

  15. Studying Real-World Perceptual Expertise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianhong eShen

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Significant insights into visual cognition have come from studying real-world perceptual expertise. Many have previously reviewed empirical findings and theoretical developments from this work. Here we instead provide a brief perspective on approaches, considerations, and challenges to studying real-world perceptual expertise. We discuss factors like choosing to use real-world versus artificial object domains of expertise, selecting a target domain of real-world perceptual expertise, recruiting experts, evaluating their level of expertise, and experimentally testing experts in the lab and online. Throughout our perspective, we highlight expert birding (also called birdwatching as an example, as it has been used as a target domain for over two decades in the perceptual expertise literature.

  16. On pricing futures options on random binomial tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayram, Kamola; Ganikhodjaev, Nasir

    2013-01-01

    The discrete-time approach to real option valuation has typically been implemented in the finance literature using a binomial tree framework. Instead we develop a new model by randomizing the environment and call such model a random binomial tree. Whereas the usual model has only one environment (u, d) where the price of underlying asset can move by u times up and d times down, and pair (u, d) is constant over the life of the underlying asset, in our new model the underlying security is moving in two environments namely (u 1 , d 1 ) and (u 2 , d 2 ). Thus we obtain two volatilities σ 1 and σ 2 . This new approach enables calculations reflecting the real market since it consider the two states of market normal and extra ordinal. In this paper we define and study Futures options for such models.

  17. Lunar Cube Transfer Trajectory Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folta, David; Dichmann, Donald James; Clark, Pamela E.; Haapala, Amanda; Howell, Kathleen

    2015-01-01

    Numerous Earth-Moon trajectory and lunar orbit options are available for Cubesat missions. Given the limited Cubesat injection infrastructure, transfer trajectories are contingent upon the modification of an initial condition of the injected or deployed orbit. Additionally, these transfers can be restricted by the selection or designs of Cubesat subsystems such as propulsion or communication. Nonetheless, many trajectory options can b e considered which have a wide range of transfer duration, fuel requirements, and final destinations. Our investigation of potential trajectories highlights several options including deployment from low Earth orbit (LEO) geostationary transfer orbits (GTO) and higher energy direct lunar transfer and the use of longer duration Earth-Moon dynamical systems. For missions with an intended lunar orbit, much of the design process is spent optimizing a ballistic capture while other science locations such as Sun-Earth libration or heliocentric orbits may simply require a reduced Delta-V imparted at a convenient location along the trajectory.

  18. Accounting treatment of currency options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prošić Danica

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Currency options are often used to mitigate currency risk resulting from corporate activities. Their implementation can be complex, and there could be problems if the essential elements and principles are not fully understood. Although they are not the simplest financial products, currency options are interesting and useful to those who are trying to make a step forward in the area of currency risk management. This paper aims to present the general principles and specifics of accounting records and valuation of currency options used for hedging against risk. It is a complex process which, in addition to numerous conditions, also involves the implementation of accounting rules that deviate from the generally accepted accounting principles.

  19. Efficient Trajectory Options Allocation for the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodionova, Olga; Arneson, Heather; Sridhar, Banavar; Evans, Antony

    2017-01-01

    The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) is a Traffic Management Initiative (TMI) intended to control the air traffic flow rates at multiple specified Flow Constrained Areas (FCAs), where demand exceeds capacity. CTOP allows flight operators to submit the desired Trajectory Options Set (TOS) for each affected flight with associated Relative Trajectory Cost (RTC) for each option. CTOP then creates a feasible schedule that complies with capacity constraints by assigning affected flights with routes and departure delays in such a way as to minimize the total cost while maintaining equity across flight operators. The current version of CTOP implements a Ration-by-Schedule (RBS) scheme, which assigns the best available options to flights based on a First-Scheduled-First-Served heuristic. In the present study, an alternative flight scheduling approach is developed based on linear optimization. Results suggest that such an approach can significantly reduce flight delays, in the deterministic case, while maintaining equity as defined using a Max-Min fairness scheme.

  20. Disposition Options for Uranium-233

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beahm, E.C.; Dole, L.R.; Forsberg, C.W.; Icenhour, A.S.; Storch, S.N.

    1999-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Fissile Materials Disposition Program (MD), in support of the U.S. arms-control and nonproliferation policies, has initiated a program to disposition surplus weapons-usable fissile material by making it inaccessible and unattractive for use in nuclear weapons. Weapons-usable fissile materials include plutonium, high-enriched uranium (HEU), and uranium-233 (sup 233)U. In support of this program, Oak Ridge National Laboratory led DOE's contractor efforts to identify and characterize options for the long-term storage and disposal of excess (sup 233)U. Five storage and 17 disposal options were identified and are described herein