The Fundamental Uncertainty of Business: Real Options

Science.gov (United States)

Dyer, James S.

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the manner in which uncertainty is currently evaluated in business, with an emphasis on economic measures. In recent years, the accepted approach for the valuation of capital investment decisions has become one based on the theory of real options. From the standpoint of this workshop, the interesting aspect of real options is its focus on the flexibility of management to respond to changes in the environment as a feature of an alternative that has unique value, known as "option value." While this may not be surprising to most participants in this workshop, it does represent a radical change in traditional thinking about risk in business, where efforts have primarily been focused on the elimination of risk when possible.

Euro Membership as a Real Option Trigger

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos

2007-01-01

-adopters (UK, Sweden, and Denmark) to exercise various forms of real options such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch suppliers, and to generally expand in the Euro-area. The study furthermore shows that small, profitable and financially constrained firms...... are particularly likely to exercise such real options triggered by the introduction of the Euro. The results go beyond the immediate trade effects, which empirical studies have shown to be weak and without trade diversion as to the three non-adopters, and provide important insights about the potential long...

Valuing of research project in energy field with real options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Blasio, N.; Marzo, G.; Turatto, R.

2008-01-01

This article presents an application of real options theory for valuing a research project in the field of stranded gas valorisation. After a presentation of the theory, the analysis addresses the use of real options evaluation for generating alternative pathways in order to add new value to the R D projects. It also shows how real option approach may be important for selecting among competitive projects, but also for providing a system for valorisation of decision-maker flexibility [it

Retrospective insights from real options in R&D

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lint, L.J.O.

2000-01-01

Absent empirical validation of real option pricing in R&D, we discuss the evolution of three cases in R&D option valuation. The first case concerns an option on conversion of an existing production process. The other two cases concern R&D to develop new product technology in the consumer electronics

Pricing real estate index options under stochastic interest rates

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Pu; Dai, Jun

2017-08-01

Real estate derivatives as new financial instruments are not merely risk management tools but also provide a novel way to gain exposure to real estate assets without buying or selling the physical assets. Although real estate derivatives market has exhibited a rapid development in recent years, the valuation challenge of real estate derivatives remains a great obstacle for further development in this market. In this paper, we derive a partial differential equation contingent on a real estate index in a stochastic interest rate environment and propose a modified finite difference method that adopts the non-uniform grids to solve this problem. Numerical results confirm the efficiency of the method and indicate that constant interest rate models lead to the mispricing of options and the effects of stochastic interest rates on option prices depend on whether the term structure of interest rates is rising or falling. Finally, we have investigated and compared the different effects of stochastic interest rates on European and American option prices.

Corporate social responsibility: a real options approach to the challenge of financial sustainability.

Science.gov (United States)

Bosch-Badia, Maria-Teresa; Montllor-Serrats, Joan; Tarrazon-Rodon, Maria-Antonia

2015-01-01

In contemporary complex societies, social values like ethics, corporate social responsibility, and being respectful with the environment, among others, are becoming social requirements. Corporations are expected to fulfill them and, according to empirical evidence, an overwhelming majority aspires to good social valuation. At the same time, the maximization of market share value in the long run continues to be the central corporate goal. Making environmental and social expenses compatible with value creation is a central challenge for corporations since it implies the financial sustainability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). The value creation capacity of CSR projects, mainly through innovation, is widely acknowledged in economic literature and corporate practice. This fact arouses the need of having a quantitative framework capable of summarizing the value creation capacity of the variables involved in CSR projects. With this aim we build up a sensitivity analysis of real option ratios that studies and quantifies the value creation capacity of CSR projects connected with innovation. Ratio analysis has the advantage of being scale independent. Hence, it furnishes a homogeneous framework to express the interaction of value creation variables and, thus, supports strategic thinking quantitatively. Often, CSR expenses can be regarded as preliminary projects that create the opportunity to undertake a full future project. For them, we obtain the minimum expectations scenario that makes financially sustainable a preliminary project that can be interpreted as a call option. We propose a classification of CSR projects from the decision analysis perspective following a two-fold approach: Their relationship with value creation and their links with existing corporate activities. This classification of CSR projects aims at contributing to choose the best capital budgeting method to study the financial sustainability of the project and identifying those CSR projects

Corporate social responsibility: a real options approach to the challenge of financial sustainability.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria-Teresa Bosch-Badia

Full Text Available In contemporary complex societies, social values like ethics, corporate social responsibility, and being respectful with the environment, among others, are becoming social requirements. Corporations are expected to fulfill them and, according to empirical evidence, an overwhelming majority aspires to good social valuation. At the same time, the maximization of market share value in the long run continues to be the central corporate goal. Making environmental and social expenses compatible with value creation is a central challenge for corporations since it implies the financial sustainability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR.The value creation capacity of CSR projects, mainly through innovation, is widely acknowledged in economic literature and corporate practice. This fact arouses the need of having a quantitative framework capable of summarizing the value creation capacity of the variables involved in CSR projects. With this aim we build up a sensitivity analysis of real option ratios that studies and quantifies the value creation capacity of CSR projects connected with innovation. Ratio analysis has the advantage of being scale independent. Hence, it furnishes a homogeneous framework to express the interaction of value creation variables and, thus, supports strategic thinking quantitatively. Often, CSR expenses can be regarded as preliminary projects that create the opportunity to undertake a full future project. For them, we obtain the minimum expectations scenario that makes financially sustainable a preliminary project that can be interpreted as a call option. We propose a classification of CSR projects from the decision analysis perspective following a two-fold approach: Their relationship with value creation and their links with existing corporate activities. This classification of CSR projects aims at contributing to choose the best capital budgeting method to study the financial sustainability of the project and identifying

Multinationality as real option facilitator – Illusion or reality?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos; Park, Jung Chul

2016-01-01

Previous literature provides multiple conflicting arguments on why and when multinationality should enhance or impede the value-relevance of firms’ real options. We address this issue by examining whether the relationship between stock returns and changes in return volatility varies with multinat......Previous literature provides multiple conflicting arguments on why and when multinationality should enhance or impede the value-relevance of firms’ real options. We address this issue by examining whether the relationship between stock returns and changes in return volatility varies...... with multinationality. Our results indicate that multinationality does indeed act as a real option facilitator. Furthermore, we show that, consistent with the notion that there are limits to the operating flexibility associated with multinationality this benefit only accrues fully if the firm is not financially...

The research for flexible product family manufacturing based on real options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maozhu Jin

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The goal of this paper is to find the best production strategy for product mix, which means the largest value of the options. And finally, give a case and find the solution of the optimal production strategy for product mix. Design/methodology/approach: This article, based on the production with characteristics of a call option and 0-1 integer programming model, build new-products mix strategy, and through case demonstrate that traditional method underestimates the value of the products mix. Finding: According to market being volatility and uncertainty and the production can being delayed, firms can flexibly arrange the best time for products to manufacture. Use real options theory to analyze product decision and the best production timing decision. Find the total options value is higher than the traditional methods. Research limitations/implications: We are not applied to real option pricing theory in modular flexible production system. We just applied real option pricing theory to the product platform. The basic model needs to improve. While the thinking of this paper provides some research ideas for flexible production systems based on real option in further research. Practical Implications: The introduction of the real option make the company can achieve dynamic planning and flexible management for production of products mix and get the better benefit. Originality/value: The central contribution of this paper is to introduce the option mechanism in the production timing for the product mix.

STRATEGIC EXERCISE OF REAL OPTIONS:INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Kevin ZHU; John WEYANT

2003-01-01

Viewing investment projects in new technologies as real options, this paper studies the effects of endogenous competition and asymmetric information on the strategic exercise of real options. We first develop a multi-period, game-theoretic model and show how competition leads to early exercise and aggressive investment behaviors and how competition erodes option values. We then relax the typical full-information assumption found in the literature and allow information asymmetry to exist across firms. Our model shows, in contrast to the literature that payoff is independent of the ordering of exercise, that the sequential exercise of real options may generate both informational and payoff externalities. We also find some surprising but interesting results such as having more information is not necessarily better.

Application of Real Options Valuation to R&D Investments in Pharmaceutical Companies

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Huan Ran

2006-01-01

This paper provides an insight into the application of real option valuation method to R&D projects in pharmaceutical companies. As one of the most important corporate finance decision-making methods, real option valuation method has been introduced in the last two decades. By applying option valuation methods, real option valuation is a useful tool to company managers. R&D investments in pharmaceutical companies are subject to considerable uncertainty, which may involve possibilities (i...

Real Option Cost Vulnerability Analysis of Electrical Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Prime, Thomas; Knight, Phil

2015-04-01

Critical infrastructure such as electricity substations are vulnerable to various geo-hazards that arise from climate change. These geo-hazards range from increased vegetation growth to increased temperatures and flood inundation. Of all the identified geo-hazards, coastal flooding has the greatest impact, but to date has had a low probability of occurring. However, in the face of climate change, coastal flooding is likely to occur more often due to extreme water levels being experienced more frequently due to sea-level rise (SLR). Knowing what impact coastal flooding will have now and in the future on critical infrastructure such as electrical substations is important for long-term management. Using a flood inundation model, present day and future flood events have been simulated, from 1 in 1 year events up to 1 in 10,000 year events. The modelling makes an integrated assessment of impact by using sea-level and surge to simulate a storm tide. The geographical area the model covers is part of the Northwest UK coastline with a range of urban and rural areas. The ensemble of flood maps generated allows the identification of critical infrastructure exposed to coastal flooding. Vulnerability has be assessed using an Estimated Annual Damage (EAD) value. Sampling SLR annual probability distributions produces a projected "pathway" for SLR up to 2100. EAD is then calculated using a relationship derived from the flood model. Repeating the sampling process allows a distribution of EAD up to 2100 to be produced. These values are discounted to present day values using an appropriate discount rate. If the cost of building and maintain defences is also removed from this a Net Present Value (NPV) of building the defences can be calculated. This distribution of NPV can be used as part of a cost modelling process involving Real Options, A real option is the right but not obligation to undertake investment decisions. In terms of investment in critical infrastructure resilience this

Real option valuation of power transmission investments by stochastic simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pringles, Rolando; Olsina, Fernando; Garcés, Francisco

2015-01-01

Network expansions in power markets usually lead to investment decisions subject to substantial irreversibility and uncertainty. Hence, investors need valuing the flexibility to change decisions as uncertainty unfolds progressively. Real option analysis is an advanced valuation technique that enables planners to take advantage of market opportunities while preventing or mitigating losses if future conditions evolve unfavorably. In the past, many approaches for valuing real options have been developed. However, applying these methods to value transmission projects is often inappropriate as revenue cash flows are path-dependent and affected by a myriad of uncertain variables. In this work, a valuation technique based on stochastic simulation and recursive dynamic programming, called Least-Square Monte Carlo, is applied to properly value the deferral option in a transmission investment. The effect of option's maturity, the initial outlay and the capital cost upon the value of the postponement option is investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis determines optimal decision regions to execute, postpone or reject the investment projects. - Highlights: • A modern investment appraisal method is applied to value power transmission projects. • The value of the option to postpone decision to invest in transmission projects is assessed. • Simulation methods are best suited for valuing real options in transmission investments

The Implications of Real Options on ERP-Enabled Adoption

Science.gov (United States)

Nwankpa, Joseph K.

2012-01-01

Current research on Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems and real options focuses on valuation and justification issues that manager's face prior to project approval with existing literature attempting to demonstrate that ERP systems as technology positioning investments have option-like characteristics thus making such ERP systems…

Identification of the real options in a program of nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camacho G, D.; Diaz N, M. J.; Reinking C, A.

2008-01-01

The development of our societies and our economies this intimately related to electric power and this as well with the generating sources, due to the projection of world-wide growth should go associate with a strategy of growth of energy generation. Considering to the nuclear power as an option to satisfy the energy needs that a country can provide two main immediate benefits: The stabilization of prices of security of provision of electric power of the nation. The care of the environment, since the gas discharges greenhouse are almost null. At the moment nuclear energy represents economically a viable option for the capital investment, taking into account the development from technology, the policies implemented by the state and the prices of other fuels. Due to the great investment that its require for the nuclear plants are necessary to use financial tools that allow to analyze the future scenes in which ours investment can be seen affected and to value the flexibility of being able to enlarge, to postpone or to stop our project in order to have majors profits or to diminish the lost ones. This valuation of the flexibility can be obtained from the called method Real Options. By analysis of Real Options the process is understood to apply to the methodology of the Financial Options to the valuation of projects or the management of real assets. The Real Options appear in flexible plans, projects, activities or enterprise investments, like for example, to leave or to sell the investment project before concluding it, changing to their use or its technology, to prolong their life, the option to choose, one or the other capacity, among others possibilities. In this work is an example of the application of the method of Real Options in the decision to invest or to defer the investment for the construction of a nuclear plant following the behavior of the tariffs in the market or the costs of generation of other technologies with which a nuclear plant competes. (Author)

Acquisitions and Real Options : The Greenfield Alternative

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouthers, Keith D.; Dikova, Desislava

P>Although acquisitions are a popular way to enter new markets, empirical evidence tends to indicate few benefits accrue to acquiring firms. This might be the case because firms use acquisitions when they should be employing an alternative mode of expansion. Applying real options theory to this

Corporate investment under uncertainty and competition : A real options approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pawlina, G.

2003-01-01

Corporate investment opportunities can be represented as a set of (real) options to acquire productive assets. Identification of the optimal exercise strategies for these options plays a crucial role in improving the quality of capital budgeting decisions and, as a consequence, in maximizing

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposures: A Search for the Effect of Real Options

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom

2001-01-01

Real options like the ability to reallocate production resources can lead to an asymmetric exchange rate exposure. Using a stock market approach in which the exchange rate exposure is derived from the information content in the stock prices this study examines the extra-market exchange rate...... exposures of a group of blue chip, industrial companies listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. In these companies the existence of real options is an integrated part of the exchange rate exposure management process. The result of the stock market approach is mixed. Statistically significant asymmetric...... exchange rate exposures are identified successfully but the asymmetries can only to a limited extent be explained by the existence of real options. Financial options and pricing to market are competing explanations. Omitted variable bias further blurs the picture. These problems and the concept of path...

The Optimal Timing of Strategic Action – A Real Options Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gordon G. Sollars

2012-01-01

Full Text Available he possibility of a first-mover advantage arises in a variety of strategic choices, including product introductions, business start-ups, and mergers and acquisitions. The strategic management literature reflects ambiguity regarding the likelihood that a first mover can or will capture additional value. This paper uses a real options approach to address the optimal timing of strategic moves. Previous studies have modeled real options using either a perpetual or a European financial option. With these models, a strategic choice could only be made either without respect to a time frame (perpetual or at a fixed point in time (European option. Neither case is realistic. Companies typically have strategic options with only a limited time frame due to market factors, but companies may choose to act at any time within that constraint. To reflect this reality, we adapt a method for valuing an American financial option on a dividend paying stock to the real options context. The method presented in this paper proposes a solution for the optimum value for a project that should trigger a strategic choice, and highlights the value lost by not acting optimally. We use simulation results to show that the time frame available to make a strategic choice has an important effect on both the project value for when action should be taken, as well as on the value of waiting to invest at the optimal time. The results presented in this paper help to clarify the ambiguity that is found in the strategic management literature regarding the possibility of obtaining a first-mover advantage. Indeed, a first mover that acts sub-optimally could incur losses or at least not gain any advantage. A first mover that waits to invest at the right time based on the superior information supplied by models based on real options could be better positioned to obtain the benefits that might come from the first move.

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

A Real Options Perspective on R&D Portfolio Diversification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. van Bekkum (Sjoerd); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); J.T.J. Smit (Han)

2008-01-01

textabstractThis paper shows that the presence of conditional staging in R&D (Research & Development) has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and changes diversification arguments when a portfolio is constructed. When R&D projects exhibit option-like characteristics, correlation between projects

Applying real options analysis to assess cleaner energy development strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, Ching-Tsung; Lo, Shang-Lien; Lin, Tyrone T.

2011-01-01

The energy industry, accounts for the largest portion of CO 2 emissions, is facing the issue of compliance with the national clean energy policy. The methodology for evaluating the energy mix policy is crucial because of the characteristics of lead time embedded with the power generation facilities investment and the uncertainty of future electricity demand. In this paper, a modified binomial model based on sequential compound options, which may account for the lead time and uncertainty as a whole is established, and a numerical example on evaluating the optional strategies and the strategic value of the cleaner energy policy is also presented. It is found that the optimal decision at some nodes in the binomial tree is path dependent, which is different from the standard sequential compound option model with lead time or time lag concept. The proposed modified binomial sequential compound real options model can be generalized and extensively applied to solve the general decision problems that deal with the long lead time of many government policies as well as capital intensive investments. - Highlights: → Introducing a flexible strategic management approach for government policy making. → Developing a modified binomial real options model based on sequential compound options. → Proposing an innovative model for managing the long term policy with lead time. → Applying to evaluate the options of various scenarios of cleaner energy strategies.

Growing short rotation coppice on agricultural land in Germany: A Real Options Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Musshoff, Oliver

2012-01-01

In many cases decision-makers apparently do not adapt as fast as expected to changing economic conditions. This is also the case for the conversion of farm land to short rotation coppice. From an economic point of view, short rotation coppice has become more interesting in the last few years. Nevertheless, farm land still is rarely used to grow this quite unknown crop. Several explanatory approaches (e.g., traditionalistic behavior and risk aversion) are currently discussed in order to explain this behavior. A relatively new explanatory approach is the Real Options Approach. The Real Options Approach uses a comprehensive dynamic-stochastic model that combines the uncertainty of investment returns, the sunk costs, and the temporal flexibility of the investment implementation. The quintessence of the Real Options Approach is that—compared to the Classical Investment Theory—the investment triggers will be shifted upwards if investments involve intertemporal opportunity costs. This paper develops a real options model which allows the determination of triggers on the basis of realistic assumptions. We examined when farmers, who only dispose of sandy soils with little water-storing capacity, should convert set-aside land to short rotation coppice. The results show that farmers should not convert until the present value of the investment returns exceeds the investment costs considerably. Thus, they confirm the empirically observed reluctance in conversion. Furthermore, it turned out that the magnitude of the difference between the Classical Investment Theory and the Real Options Approach depends heavily on the type of stochastic process that underlies the investment returns. -- Highlights: ► Frequently observed reluctance of farmers to convert to short rotation coppice. ► Risk neutral farmers should convert if the investment multiple exceeds 1.57. ► The Real Options Approach is an explanatory approach for this observation. ► Results depend very much on the

Real Option--A New Approach in the Evaluation of Telecom Investment Projects

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WU Hong

2005-01-01

This paper gives a new method into the evaluating system of telecom investment projects, I.e. Real Option. This may overcome the defects resulted from employing Net Present Value (NPV), which is now used in the evaluation of telecom projects. A theoretical analysis of Real Option is provided, followed by an example of telecom investment project to illustrate the differences between the two methods.

Real Options Analysis of Mining Projects

OpenAIRE

Rudolf Zdravlje

2011-01-01

When long life assets are being evaluated based on constant predictions of future variables and the assumptions of zero management flexibility, is value being missed? In project evaluation today, the most common evaluation methods that calculate a net present value are discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, decision tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. A fourth method, which is beginning to gain ground in terms of its use in the mining industry, is real option analysis (ROA). ROA utilizes ...

Real options analysis for land use management: Methods, application, and implications for policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Regan, Courtney M; Bryan, Brett A; Connor, Jeffery D; Meyer, Wayne S; Ostendorf, Bertram; Zhu, Zili; Bao, Chenming

2015-09-15

Discounted cash flow analysis, including net present value is an established way to value land use and management investments which accounts for the time-value of money. However, it provides a static view and assumes passive commitment to an investment strategy when real world land use and management investment decisions are characterised by uncertainty, irreversibility, change, and adaptation. Real options analysis has been proposed as a better valuation method under uncertainty and where the opportunity exists to delay investment decisions, pending more information. We briefly review the use of discounted cash flow methods in land use and management and discuss their benefits and limitations. We then provide an overview of real options analysis, describe the main analytical methods, and summarize its application to land use investment decisions. Real options analysis is largely underutilized in evaluating land use decisions, despite uncertainty in policy and economic drivers, the irreversibility and sunk costs involved. New simulation methods offer the potential for overcoming current technical challenges to implementation as demonstrated with a real options simulation model used to evaluate an agricultural land use decision in South Australia. We conclude that considering option values in future policy design will provide a more realistic assessment of landholder investment decision making and provide insights for improved policy performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Real Options Approach to Nuclear Waste Disposal in Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soederkvist, Jonas; Joensson, Kristian

2004-04-01

This report is concerned with an investigation of how the real options approach can be useful for managerial decisions regarding the phase-out of nuclear power generation in Sweden. The problem of interest is the optimal time-schedule for phase-out activities, where the optimal time-schedule is defined in purely economical terms. The approach taken is actual construction and application of three real options models, which capture different aspects of managerial decisions. The first model concerns when investments in deep disposal facilities should optimally be made. Although the model is a rough simplification of reality, the result is clear. It is economically advantageous to postpone deep disposal forever. The second model focuses on how the uncertainty of future costs relates to managerial investment decisions. Construction of this model required some creativity, as the nuclear phase-out turns out to be quite a special project. The result from the second model is that there can be a value associated with deferral of investments due to the uncertainty of future costs, but the result is less clear-cut compared to the first model. In the third model, we extend an approach suggested by Louberge, Villeneuve and Chesney. The risk of a nuclear accident is introduced through this model and we develop its application to investigate the Swedish phase-out in particular, which implies that waste continuously disposed. In the third model, focus is shifted from investment timing to implementation timing. The results from the third model are merely qualitative, as it is considered beyond the scope of this work to quantitatively determine all relevant inputs. It is concluded that the phase-out of nuclear power generation in Sweden is not just another area of application for standard real options techniques. A main reason is that although there are a lot of uncertain issues regarding the phase-out, those uncertainties do not leave a lot of room for managerial flexibility if

Real options methodology in public-private partnership projects valuation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rakić Biljana

2014-01-01

Full Text Available PPP offers numerous benefits to both public and private partners in delivery of infrastructure projects. However this partnership also involves great risks which have to be adequately managed and mitigated. Private partners are especially sensitive to revenue risk, since they are mostly interested in the financial viability of the project. Thus they often expect public partners to provide some kind of risk-sharing mechanism in the form of Minimum Revenue Guarantees or abandonment options. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether the real option of abandoning the project increases its value. Therefore the binominal option pricing model and risk-neutral probability approach have been implemented to price the European and American abandonment options for the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT toll road investment. The obtained results suggest that the project value with the American abandonment option is greater than with the European abandonment option, hence implying that American options offer greater flexibility and are more valuable for private partners. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179066 and III 42006

REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS – ASSESSMENT METHOD OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN GREEN ENERGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MAFTEI DANIEL

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This article highlights the importance of real options as a evaluation method of investment in green energy. Article consider several theoretical and practical approaches, the analysis based on real options by many authors who have theorized and used this method. Each approach provides a operationalisation through a steps series of specific evaluation. This paper highlights the different views: academics, financiers, managers and facilitates the access to an accurate evaluation decisions of projects.

Investing in Marine Scrubber under Uncertainty with Real Option Thinking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jiang, Liping; Hansen, Carsten Ørts

works that examine the economic feasibility of scrubber retrofitting through the net present value rule, this paper applies the Real Option Analysis to find the optimal investment strategies. The proposed decision-making framework addresses the uncertainty and the value of deferral option embedded...... in the scrubber investment. The multiple sources of investment uncertainties are explicitly analyzed and integrated in the modeling by using Rainbow option. The results demonstrate that the value of the scrubber investment has significantly increased for several cases by considering the deferral option....... It is thus important for ship owners to consider the available options before proceeding with abandoning or investing strategy. The proposed framework can be widely applied to other ship retrofitting investment evaluations, which include similar investment alternatives and uncertainties....

Combination of real options and game-theoretic approach in investment analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Arasteh, Abdollah

2016-09-01

Investments in technology create a large amount of capital investments by major companies. Assessing such investment projects is identified as critical to the efficient assignment of resources. Viewing investment projects as real options, this paper expands a method for assessing technology investment decisions in the linkage existence of uncertainty and competition. It combines the game-theoretic models of strategic market interactions with a real options approach. Several key characteristics underlie the model. First, our study shows how investment strategies rely on competitive interactions. Under the force of competition, firms hurry to exercise their options early. The resulting "hurry equilibrium" destroys the option value of waiting and involves violent investment behavior. Second, we get best investment policies and critical investment entrances. This suggests that integrating will be unavoidable in some information product markets. The model creates some new intuitions into the forces that shape market behavior as noticed in the information technology industry. It can be used to specify best investment policies for technology innovations and adoptions, multistage R&D, and investment projects in information technology.

Costing the EPR Project Using the Real Options Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Epaulard, Anne; Gallon, Stephane

2001-01-01

Real options theory makes it possible to cost investments which offer flexibility but whose returns are uncertain, such as the construction in 2000 of an EPR prototype; this prototype will enable the European pressurised-water reactor (EPR) to be used to renew EDF's nuclear power stations in 2020 (flexibility) but its economic worth will then depend on the cost of the competing gas-fired power plants (uncertain return). Options theory shows that investing in EPR technology in 2000 provides sufficient flexibility in 2020 to be considered cost-effective, even though use of EPRs is unlikely by that date. The investment made in 2000 to develop EPR technology therefore actually plays the part of an option or, in other words, insurance (against the risk of high gas prices)

Construction strategies and lifetime uncertainties for nuclear projects: A real option analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jain, Shashi; Roelofs, Ferry; Oosterlee, Cornelis W.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Real options can be used to value flexibility of modular reactors. • Value of NPPs increases with implementation of long term cost reductions. • Levels of uncertainties affect the choice between projects. -- Abstract: Small and medium sized reactors, SMRs (according to IAEA, ‘small’ are reactors with power less than 300 MWe, and ‘medium’ with power less than 700 MWe) are considered as an attractive option for investment in nuclear power plants. SMRs may benefit from flexibility of investment, reduced upfront expenditure, and easy integration with small sized grids. Large reactors on the other hand have been an attractive option due to economy of scale. In this paper we focus on the advantages of flexibility due to modular construction of SMRs. Using real option analysis (ROA) we help a utility determine the value of sequential modular SMRs. Numerical results under different considerations, like possibility of rare events, learning, uncertain lifetimes are reported for a single large unit and modular SMRs

Construction strategies and lifetime uncertainties for nuclear projects: A real option analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jain, Shashi, E-mail: s.jain@cwi.nl [TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands); Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Roelofs, Ferry, E-mail: roelofs@nrg.eu [Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Oosterlee, Cornelis W., E-mail: c.w.oosterlee@cwi.nl [CWI – Centrum Wiskunde and Informatica, Amsterdam (Netherlands); TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands)

2013-12-15

Highlights: • Real options can be used to value flexibility of modular reactors. • Value of NPPs increases with implementation of long term cost reductions. • Levels of uncertainties affect the choice between projects. -- Abstract: Small and medium sized reactors, SMRs (according to IAEA, ‘small’ are reactors with power less than 300 MWe, and ‘medium’ with power less than 700 MWe) are considered as an attractive option for investment in nuclear power plants. SMRs may benefit from flexibility of investment, reduced upfront expenditure, and easy integration with small sized grids. Large reactors on the other hand have been an attractive option due to economy of scale. In this paper we focus on the advantages of flexibility due to modular construction of SMRs. Using real option analysis (ROA) we help a utility determine the value of sequential modular SMRs. Numerical results under different considerations, like possibility of rare events, learning, uncertain lifetimes are reported for a single large unit and modular SMRs.

A real options approach to biotechnology investment policy-the case of developing a Campylobacter vaccine to poultry.

Science.gov (United States)

Lund, Mogens; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

2016-06-01

The aim of the article is to identify and analyse public-private incentives for the development and marketing of new animal vaccines within a real options methodological framework, and to investigate how real options methodology can be utilized to support economic incentives for vaccine development in a cost-effective way. The development of a vaccine against Campylobacter jejuni in poultry is applied as a case study. Employing the real options methodology, the net present value of the vaccine R&D project becomes larger than a purely probabilistic expected present value throughout the different stages of the project - and the net present value becomes larger, when more types of real options are taken into consideration. The insight from the real options analysis reveals opportunities for new policies to promote the development of animal vaccines. One such approach might be to develop schemes combining stage-by-stage optimized subsidies in the individual development stages, with proper account taken of investors'/developers' economic incentives to proceed, sell or cancel the project in the respective stages. Another way of using the real options approach to support the development of desirable animal vaccines could be to issue put options for the vaccine candidate, enabling vaccine developers to hedge against the economic risk from market volatility. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of Transaction costs and real options on firms' own-or-rent ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Based on secondary data on 79 companies in Mekelle, Ethiopia, this paper investigates the influence of transaction cost and real option factors on firms' own or rent decision for building resources. Empirical results suggest that both transaction cost and option factors have significant influence on firms' own or rent decision.

Identification of the real options in a program of nuclear plants; Identificacion de las opciones reales en un programa de plantas nucleoelectricas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Camacho G, D.; Diaz N, M. J.; Reinking C, A. [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Paseo Cuauhnahuac 8532, Jiutepec, Morelos 62550 (Mexico)]. e-mail: danielkmacho@yahoo.com.mx

2008-07-01

The development of our societies and our economies this intimately related to electric power and this as well with the generating sources, due to the projection of world-wide growth should go associate with a strategy of growth of energy generation. Considering to the nuclear power as an option to satisfy the energy needs that a country can provide two main immediate benefits: The stabilization of prices of security of provision of electric power of the nation. The care of the environment, since the gas discharges greenhouse are almost null. At the moment nuclear energy represents economically a viable option for the capital investment, taking into account the development from technology, the policies implemented by the state and the prices of other fuels. Due to the great investment that its require for the nuclear plants are necessary to use financial tools that allow to analyze the future scenes in which ours investment can be seen affected and to value the flexibility of being able to enlarge, to postpone or to stop our project in order to have majors profits or to diminish the lost ones. This valuation of the flexibility can be obtained from the called method Real Options. By analysis of Real Options the process is understood to apply to the methodology of the Financial Options to the valuation of projects or the management of real assets. The Real Options appear in flexible plans, projects, activities or enterprise investments, like for example, to leave or to sell the investment project before concluding it, changing to their use or its technology, to prolong their life, the option to choose, one or the other capacity, among others possibilities. In this work is an example of the application of the method of Real Options in the decision to invest or to defer the investment for the construction of a nuclear plant following the behavior of the tariffs in the market or the costs of generation of other technologies with which a nuclear plant competes. (Author)

Evaluation of Foreign Investment in Power Plants using Real Options

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

This paper proposes new methods for evaluating foreign investment in power plants under market uncertainty using a real options approach. We suppose a thermal power plant project in a deregulated electricity market. One of our proposed methods is that we calculate the cash flow generated by the project in a reference year using actual market data to incorporate periodic characteristics of energy prices into a yearly cash flow model. We make the stochastic yearly cash flow model with the initial value which is the cash flow in the reference year, and certain trend and volatility. Then we calculate the real options value (ROV) of the project which has abandonment options using the yearly cash flow model. Another our proposed method is that we evaluate foreign currency/domestic currency exchange rate risk by representing ROV in foreign currency as yearly pay off and exchanging it to ROV in domestic currency using a stochastic exchange rate model. We analyze the effect of the heat rate and operation and maintenance costs of the power plant on ROV, and evaluate exchange rate risk through numerical examples. Our proposed method will be useful for the risk management of foreign investment in power plants.

Applying Real Options for Evaluating Investments in ERP Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Nakagane, Jun; Sekozawa, Teruji

This paper intends to verify effectiveness of real options approach for evaluating investments in Enterprise Resource Planning systems (ERP) and proves how important it is to disclose shadow options potentially embedded in ERP investment. The net present value (NPV) method is principally adopted to evaluate the value of ERP. However, the NPV method assumes no uncertainties exist in the object. It doesn't satisfy the current business circumstances which are filled with dynamic issues. Since the 1990s the effectiveness of option pricing models for Information System (IS) investment to solve issues in the NPV method has been discussed in the IS literature. This paper presents 3 business cases to review the practical advantages of such techniques for IS investments, especially ERP investments. The first case is EDI development. We evaluate the project by a new approach with lighting one of shadow options, EDI implementation. In the second case we reveal an ERP investment has an “expanding option” in a case of eliminating redundancy. The third case describes an option to contract which is deliberately slotted in ERP development to prepare transferring a manufacturing facility.

Capacity choice in (strategic) real options models : A survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huberts, Nick; Huisman, Kuno; Kort, Peter; Lavrutich, Maria

2015-01-01

The theory of real options determines the optimal time to invest in a project of given size. As a main result, it is found that in a more uncertain environment, it is optimal for a firm to delay its investment. In other words, uncertainty generates a “value of waiting.” Recently, contributions

A real-life example of choosing an inherently safer process option

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Study, Karen

2007-01-01

While choosing an inherently safer alternative may seem straightforward, sometimes what seems to be the most obvious alternative may not provide the best risk reduction. The process designer must maintain a broad perspective to be able to recognize all potential hazards when evaluating design options. All aspects of operation such as start-up, shut-down, utility failure, as well as normal operation should be considered. Choosing the inherently safer option is best accomplished early in the option selection phase of a project; however, recycle back to the option selection phase may be needed if an option is not thoroughly evaluated early in the process. In this paper, a project to supply ammonia to a catalytic reactor will be reviewed. During the course of the project, an 'inherently safer' alternative was selected and later discarded due to issues uncovered during the detail design phase. The final option chosen will be compared to (1) the original design and (2) the initial 'inherently safer' alternative. The final option was inherently safer than both the original design and the initial 'inherently safer' alternative even though the design team initially believed that it would not be

Applications of Real Options in the Real Estate Market Focusing the City of Rio de Janeiro

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Priscilla Yung Medeiros

2003-06-01

Full Text Available An investment opportunity in the real state market can be compared with an option and, because of this analogy, we can make use of the real options theory to determinate not only the best timing to begin a new property development, but also to determine the optimal density to develop in a specific property. To investigate these two main decisions, we are going to base our research on the model developed by Williams (1991 and extend it in a way to include taxes and a discount in the net cash inflow caused by the times spent in the construction process. An empirical analysis of the of the residential real estate market in the city of Rio de Janeiro is going to be developed in a way to verify the compatibility of the theoretical model developed here according to the reality of this market. We found that the extensions proposed to the basic model of Williams (1991 had significant effects in the theoretical model. We could also confirm empirically that the theoretical results are compatible to the reality of this market.

Manager’s Flexibility & Cancellation Option: Insights of a Case Study in the Latin American Oil Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arthur Ridolfo Neto

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This article focused on the main business insights of the use of Real Options valuation analysis in the eyes of a finance professional. It used a case study of an investment opportunity in the oil and gas field services industry in Latin America to discuss the methodology implementation and its insights. As a secondary objective, it discussed the insights and options embedded in this investment opportunity.Methodology: The investment opportunity was examined using the Real Options Analysis (ROA framework and the results compared to the traditional methodology of Net Present Value. The valuation technique was performed as if it had been applied at the time the project was approved.Findings: The most important of Real Option valuation is not the results, but how one arrives at them. After the project value is calculated and the project approved or not, the Real Option valuation requires and supports the monitoring of the project. By understanding how the options are created, managers can make better decisions about the project after it was approved.Practical implications: A relevant contribution from the study was the discussion, as a practitioner, of the methodology implementation in a real world corporation. Originality & value: The case study evaluated two types of real options: first, the effect of an option to cancel a contract that was assessed from the perspective of the client contracting the project; and second, the option to abandon and defer, from the perspective of the company that will perform the investment to provide the services. By incorporating the cost of the put option that the company puts forth for the client (cancellation option it reduces the project value by giving flexibility to its clients.

Development of real options model for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, Kenji

2004-01-01

As the Japanese electricity market is deregulated, it becomes more important for electric utilities to recognize their financial risks and to adopt strategic and scientific decision making methodology. We have developed two models for valuation of Japanese nuclear power plants to support utilities' decision making. One is a net present value (NPV) model using discounted cash flow analysis method. Another is a real options model. This model is based on strict financial technology theory and can calculate value of early retirement, life extension and new unit addition options of nuclear units under electricity price uncertainty. This can also derive an optimal period for retirement, life extension and new unit addition. (author)

Real Silver and Its Investment and Business Options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Novotný Josef

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The article deals with investment and business opportunities offered by silver. Silver is the metal used in industry and for investing at financial markets. The main problem related to this real commodity is the issue of “the undervaluation” of its investment options, if compared to gold. If considering silver as the investment option, its investment potential is significantly enhanced by its industrial usage. The aim of this paper is to highlight business and investment opportunities for both professionals and non professional investors at the commodity markets. The price growth of this investment and industrial metal can generate profits for the investors. And on the other hand, industries which cannot do without silver in their production may efficiently utilize the knowledge of setting up its price at the markets.

Real Option in Capital Budgeting for SMEs: Insight from Steel Company

Science.gov (United States)

Muharam, F. M.; Tarrazon, M. A.

2017-06-01

Complex components of investment projects can only be analysed accurately if flexibility and comprehensive consideration of uncertainty are incorporated into valuation. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis has failed to cope with strategic future alternatives that affect the right value of investment projects. Real option valuation (ROV) proves to be the right tool for this purpose since it enables to calculate the enlarged or strategic Net Present Value (ENPV). This study attempts to provide an insight of the usage of ROV in capital budgeting and investment decision-making processes of SMEs. Exploring into the first stage processing of steel industry, analysis of alternatives to cancel, to expand, to defer or to abandon is performed. Completed with multiple options interaction and a sensitivity analysis, our findings prove that the application of ROV is beneficial for complex investment projects independently from the size of the company and particularly suitable in scenarios with scarce resources. The application of Real Option Valuation (ROV) is plausible and beneficial for SMEs to be incorporated in the strategic decision making process.

How Do Real Options Concepts Fit in Agile Requirements Engineering?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Racheva, Z.; Daneva, Maia

Agile requirements engineering is driven by creating business value for the client and heavily involves the client in decision-making under uncertainty. Real option thinking seems to be suitable in supporting the client’s decision making process at inter-iteration time. This paper investigates the

A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Lei; Fan, Ying

2011-01-01

Highlights: → This paper establishes a carbon captures and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model. → The model is based on real options theory and solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. → China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment. → The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. -- Abstract: This paper establishes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model based on real options theory considering uncertainties from the existing thermal power generating cost, carbon price, thermal power with CCS generating cost, and investment in CCS technology deployment. The model aims to evaluate the value of the cost saving effect and amount of CO 2 emission reduction through investing in newly-built thermal power with CCS technology to replace existing thermal power in a given period from the perspective of power generation enterprises. The model is solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. Since the model could be used as a policy analysis tool, China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment through scenario analysis. The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. Thus, there is an important trade off for policy makers between reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the interests of power generation enterprises. The research presented would be useful for CCS technology evaluation and related policy-making.

Optimizing the Level of Renewable Electric R&D Expenditures Using Real Options Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davis, G.; Owens, B.

2003-02-01

One of the primary objectives of the United States' federal non-hydro renewable electric R&D program is to promote the development of technologies that have the potential to provide consumers with stable and secure energy supplies. In order to quantify the benefits provided by continued federal renewable electric R&D, this paper uses ''real option'' pricing techniques to estimate the value of renewable electric technologies in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices. Within the real options analysis framework, the current value of expected future supply from renewable electric technologies, net of federal R&D expenditures, is estimated to be $30.6 billion. Of this value, 86% can be attributed to past federal R&D efforts, and 14% can be attributed to future federal R&D efforts, assuming continued federal R&D funding at $300 million/year. In addition, real options analysis shows that the value of renewable electric technologies increases as current and future R&D funding levels increase. This indicates that the current level of federal renewable electric R&D funding is sub-optimal low.

The use of fuzzy real option valuation method to rank Giga ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The use of fuzzy real option valuation method to rank Giga Investment Projects on Iran's natural gas reserves. ... Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... methodology – discounted cash flow analysis – in valuation of Giga investments.

THE THEORY OF REAL OPTIONS in investment ANALYSIS of agroforestry systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maísa Santos Joaquim

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In this study we compared the values generated by traditional economic analysis (Net Present Value - NPV with Real Options Method. The objective was to apply the method proposed by Copeland & Antikarov for rainbow options, due to three stochastic variables selected with decision of abandonment if the project value with flexibility was less than the value of the underlying stock. It enabled the flexibility value generation in order to entrepreneurs to have more confidence in their decision when they are investing in a project with Agroforestry System, with different scenarios visualization in a single analysis. The results evidenced that the economic viability analysis, using Real Options, provided the best view of the possible scenarios, within a range generated by the prices volatility. The Net Present Value adopted as the underlying stock value was R$ 5,684.32, using the discount rate (WACC of 9.95% and risk-free interest rate of 7.5%. To determine the volatility were calculated: the logarithmic return standard deviation (27.06, the average (0.0883, upward movements values (u (1.3107 with 61.34% of probability and downward movements values (d(0.7628 with 38.66%  of probability. The option value in case of abandonment was R$ 2,059.01/ha positive. The results showed that the NPV overestimated the project return and that it would be viable to abandon it.

A real options approach to biotechnology Investment policy - the case of developing a Campylobacter vaccine to poultry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Mogens; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

2016-01-01

The aim of the article is to identify and analyse public-private incentives for the development and marketing of new animal vaccines within a real options methodological framework, and to investigate how real options methodology can be utilized to support economic incentives for vaccine developme...

Valuation of exploration and production assets. An overview of real options models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dias, Marco Antonio Guimaraes

2004-01-01

This paper presents a set of selected real options models to evaluate investments in petroleum exploration and production (E and P) under market and technical uncertainties. First are presented some simple examples to develop the intuition about concepts like option value and optimal option exercise, comparing them with the concepts from the traditional net present value (NPV) criteria. Next, the classical model of Paddock, Siegel and Smith is presented, including a discussion on the practical values for the input parameters. The modeling of oil price uncertainty is presented by comparing some alternative stochastic processes. Other E and P applications discussed here are the selection of mutually exclusive alternatives under uncertainty, the wildcat drilling decision, the appraisal investment decisions, and the analysis of option to expand the production through optional wells

The impact of delaying an investment decision on R&D projects in real option game

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Shuhua; Li, Yue; Gao, Fanglu

2016-01-01

In a research and development (R&D) investment, the cost and the project value of such an investment are usually uncertain, which thus increases its complexity. Correspondingly, the NPV (Net Present Value) rule fails to evaluate the value of this project exactly, because this method does not take into account the market uncertainty, irreversibility of investment and ability of delay entry. In this paper, we employ the real option theory to evaluate the project value of a R&D investment. Since the cost of a R&D investment is very high and the flow of the information is crowded, an investor cannot make an immediate decision every time. So, the proposed real option model is an exchange option. At the same time, combining the real option and the game theory, we can find the Nash equilibrium which is the optimal strategy. Moreover, we also study how the delayed time influences the price of the project investment and how the different delayed times effect the choice of the optimal strategies.

When to Wait for More Evidence? Real Options Analysis in Proton Therapy

Science.gov (United States)

Abrams, Keith R.; de Ruysscher, Dirk; Pijls-Johannesma, Madelon; Peters, Hans J.M.; Beutner, Eric; Lambin, Philippe; Joore, Manuela A.

2011-01-01

Purpose. Trends suggest that cancer spending growth will accelerate. One method for controlling costs is to examine whether the benefits of new technologies are worth the extra costs. However, especially new and emerging technologies are often more costly, while limited clinical evidence of superiority is available. In that situation it is often unclear whether to adopt the new technology now, with the risk of investing in a suboptimal therapy, or to wait for more evidence, with the risk of withholding patients their optimal treatment. This trade-off is especially difficult when it is costly to reverse the decision to adopt a technology, as is the case for proton therapy. Real options analysis, a technique originating from financial economics, assists in making this trade-off. Methods. We examined whether to adopt proton therapy, as compared to stereotactic body radiotherapy, in the treatment of inoperable stage I non-small cell lung cancer. Three options are available: adopt without further research; adopt and undertake a trial; or delay adoption and undertake a trial. The decision depends on the expected net gain of each option, calculated by subtracting its total costs from its expected benefits. Results. In The Netherlands, adopt and trial was found to be the preferred option, with an optimal sample size of 200 patients. Increase of treatment costs abroad and costs of reversal altered the preferred option. Conclusion. We have shown that real options analysis provides a transparent method of weighing the costs and benefits of adopting and/or further researching new and expensive technologies. PMID:22147003

A real option analysis of investments in hydropower-The case of Norway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kjaerland, Frode

2007-01-01

This paper presents a valuation study of hydropower investment opportunities in the Norwegian context. According to NVE (Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, the regulator), there is a potential of 39 TWh not yet developed (generation in a normal year is approximately 120 TWh). By using the conceptual real option framework of Dixit and Pindyck [1994. Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ] one can estimate the value of investment opportunities to NOK 11 million/GWh (EUR 1.4 million/GWh). Furthermore, the optimal trigger price for initiating an investment based on electricity forward prices is calculated to NOK 0.32/kWh (EUR 0.04/kWh). The analysis shows consistency between real option theory and aggregate investment behaviour in Norwegian hydropower

An Economic Evaluation on Replacement Plan for Aged Thermal Power Plants through a Real Option Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

This paper presents a novel method to evaluate replacement plan for aged thermal power plants under uncertain circumstances through a real option approach. The most economical plan is selected among the three options: an option to operate an existing oil-fired thermal plant, an option to mothball it, and an option to abandon it and to construct an advanced gas combined cycle power plant (ACC) at the same time. Basic ideas of our model are: we use quadranomial approach in order to evaluate an option value consisted by two different uncertain assets; we consider cash flow with a dividend in order to reflect conditions of an aged oil-fired thermal plant and use the sequential compound option approach; we evaluate replacement time using quadranomial decision tree taking into account the options. We also analyze value and time of replacement using numerical examples. Our proposed method will be practically used for generation planning. For example it is possible to make priority quantitatively in replacements of aged thermal power plants by real option values. The target year of replacement may be set as a year when cumulative probability of replacement becomes over certain level.

Evaluation of Cloud Computing Hidden Benefits by Using Real Options Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavel Náplava

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Cloud computing technologies have brought new attributes to the IT world. One of them is a flexibility of IT resources. It enables effectively both to downsize and upsize the capacity of IT resources in real time. Requirements for IT size change defines business strategy and actual market state. IT costs are not stable but dynamic in this case. Standard investment valuation methods (both static and dynamic are not able to include the flexibility attribute to the evaluation of IT projects. This article describes the application of the Real Options Analysis method for the valuation of the cloud computing flexibility. The method compares costs of the on-premise and cloud computing solutions by combining put and call option valuation. Cloud computing providers can use the method as an advanced tool that explains hidden benefits of cloud computing. Unexperienced cloud computing customers can simulate the market behavior and better plan necessary IT investments.

Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model. The case of Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Shun-Chung; Shih, Li-Hsing

2010-01-01

This study presents a policy benefit evaluation model that integrates cost efficiency curve information on renewable power generation technologies into real options analysis (ROA) methods. The proposed model evaluates quantitatively the policy value provided by developing renewable energy (RE) in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices and RE policy-related factors. The economic intuition underlying the policy-making process is elucidated, while empirical analysis illustrates the option value embedded in the current development policy in Taiwan for wind power. In addition to revealing the benefits that RE development provides when considering real options, analytical results indicate that ROA is a highly effective means of quantifying how policy planning uncertainty including managerial flexibility influences RE development. In addition to assessing the policy value of current RE development policy, this study also compares policy values in terms of internalized external costs and varying feed-in tariff (FIT). Simulation results demonstrate that the RE development policy with internalized CO 2 emission costs is appropriate policy planning from sustainability point of view. Furthermore, relationship between varying FIT and policy values can be shown quantitatively and appropriate FIT level could be determined accordingly. (author)

Real options and asset valuation in competitive energy markets

Science.gov (United States)

Oduntan, Adekunle Richard

The focus of this work is to develop a robust valuation framework for physical power assets operating in competitive markets such as peaking or mid-merit thermal power plants and baseload power plants. The goal is to develop a modeling framework that can be adapted to different energy assets with different types of operating flexibilities and technical constraints and which can be employed for various purposes such as capital budgeting, business planning, risk management and strategic bidding planning among others. The valuation framework must also be able to capture the reality of power market rules and opportunities, as well as technical constraints of different assets. The modeling framework developed conceptualizes operating flexibilities of power assets as "switching options' whereby the asset operator decides at every decision point whether to switch from one operating mode to another mutually exclusive mode, within the limits of the equipment constraints of the asset. As a current decision to switch operating modes may affect future operating flexibilities of the asset and hence cash flows, a dynamic optimization framework is employed. The developed framework accounts for the uncertain nature of key value drivers by representing them with appropriate stochastic processes. Specifically, the framework developed conceptualizes the operation of a power asset as a multi-stage decision making problem where the operator has to make a decision at every stage to alter operating mode given currently available information about key value drivers. The problem is then solved dynamically by decomposing it into a series of two-stage sub-problems according to Bellman's optimality principle. The solution algorithm employed is the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. The developed valuation framework was adapted for a gas-fired thermal power plant, a peaking hydroelectric power plant and a baseload power plant. This work built on previously published real options valuation

A Real Options Analysis of Coffee Planting in Vietnam

OpenAIRE

Luong, Quoc; Tauer, Loren W.

2004-01-01

Vietnam grew from an insignificant to the world’s second largest coffee producer during the 1990s. To understand this growth, this paper examines Vietnamese coffee growers’ investment decisions using real options theory. The study finds that producers, with variable costs of 19 cents/lb and total cost of 29.3 cents/lb, would enter coffee production at a coffee price of 47 cents/lb and exit at a coffee price of 14 cents/lb. Most Vietnamese growers appear to be sufficiently efficient to continu...

MODERN OPTIONS FOR THE FINANCING OF THE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiriac Silviu-Cornel-Virgil

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The investments represent one of the most important elements in the national economy development strategies, as well as in all the business fields and branches. The notion of investment is extremely complex, perceived with different meanings and significates. In a general, wider meaning the investments represent a capital placement which is made with the purpose of obtaining profit bearing incomes in the future. In a narrower meaning, investments mean the totality of expenses made for obtaining capital assets which are future potential factors in the formation of incomes. Investments represent the most important factor in the development strategies of the national economy as well as in all the business fields and branches. The investment strategy represents an important element in the management of the investments and a component of the general strategy of the entity. The use of investment strategies in the management activity implies the application of scientific techniques and methods. The great number of studies carried out shows that there were no certain answers formed, very often the option for a form of financing or the other is influenced only by the “level of accessibility” of the resources available on the financial market and the financing policy of many companies is guided rather by the constraints of the financial market than a coherent company strategy In order to ensure a constant economic growth it is necessary to prepare investment projects. In practice the predominant one is the investment activity based on real investments performed for the modernising of assets, in order to ensure their physical and moral wear and tear. The analysis of real estate investments can be made using a various range of indicators, from the traditional ones to those based on the updated cash flow, using traditional analysis techniques or complex techniques used by specialists with training in the analysis of real estate investment. The

Valuation: From The Discounted Cash Flows (DCF Approach To The Real Options Approach (ROA Valuation: From The Discounted Cash Flows (DCF Approach To The Real Options Approach (ROA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cecilia Maya Ochoa

2004-12-01

Full Text Available There exists an abysm between market prices and traditional valuation approaches such as Discounted Cash Flows (DCF, a fact that neither academics nor practitioners could continue ignoring. Recently, a complementary approach has taken a foothold into the valuation world. Building on the DCF approach yet going further in the sense of incorporating flexibility in management investment decisions, and taking advantage of the advances in option pricing theory, the real options approach (ROA has become the alternative to capital budgeting and, lately, to corporate valuation. Empirical evidence shows that ROA explains actual prices better than DCF approaches and nowadays there is no question that from a theoretical point of view, ROA is a much more appealing concept than passive NPV. However, its acceptance by practitioners has been very slow due to the complexity of real options pricing.Existe un abismo entre precios de Mercado y la valoración estimada por métodos tradicionales tales como Flujos de Caja Descontados, un hecho que ni académicos ni practicantes pueden continuar ignorando. Recientemente, una metodología complementaria ha tomado gran fuerza. Partiendo de los Flujos de Caja Descontados, pero incorporando flexibilidad en las decisiones de inversión y aprovechando los avances en la teoría de valoración de opciones, el enfoque de opciones reales (ROA se ha convertido en la alternativa para presupuestación de capital y valoración de empresas. La evidencia empírica muestra que ROA explica los precios de mercado mejor que los enfoques basados en flujos de caja descontados y, hoy en día, no hay discusión de que es más atractivo desde un punto de vista teórico; sin embargo, su utilización en la práctica ha sido muy limitada debido a las dificultades que presenta la valoración de las opciones reales.

Sequencing Infrastructure Investments under Deep Uncertainty Using Real Options Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nishtha Manocha

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The adaptation tipping point and adaptation pathway approach developed to make decisions under deep uncertainty do not shed light on which among the multiple available pathways should be chosen as the preferred pathway. This creates the need to extend these approaches by means of suitable tools that can help sequence actions and subsequently enable the outlining of relevant policies. This paper presents two sequencing approaches, namely, the “Build to Target” and “Build Up” approach, to aid in sub-selecting a set of preferred pathways. Both approaches differ in the levels of flexibility they offer. They are exemplified by means of two case studies wherein the Net Present Valuation and the Real Options Analysis are employed as selection criterions. The results demonstrate the benefit of these two approaches when used in conjunction with the adaptation pathways and show how the pathways selected by means of a Build to Target approach generally have a value greater than, or at least the same as, the pathways selected by the Build Up approach. Further, this paper also demonstrates the capacity of Real Options to quantify and capture the economic value of flexibility, which cannot be done by traditional valuation approaches such as Net Present Valuation.

Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management for Finance: Application of Real Options Method for Disaster Risk Sensitive Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

KUSDHIANTO SETIAWAN

Full Text Available This paper discusses the application of real options analysis for a project that is in the process of construction and was affected by a natural disaster. The use of the analytical method has become a way of thinking in making decisions that should be taught to business school students. The case in this paper is based on an MBA thesis at the University of Gadjah Mada that was intended as a showcase for application of real options to address real business problems. It shows one of the strategies in mainstreaming disaster risk management in the business school that also answers the needs of businesses in the disaster-prone country.

A novel method to value real options in health care: the case of a multicohort human papillomavirus vaccination strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Favato, Giampiero; Baio, Gianluca; Capone, Alessandro; Marcellusi, Andrea; Saverio Mennini, Francesco

2013-07-01

A large number of economic evaluations have already confirmed the cost-effectiveness of different human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies. Standard analyses might not capture the full economic value of novel vaccination programs because the cost-effectiveness paradigm fails to take into account the value of active management. Management decisions can be seen as real options, a term used to refer to the application of option pricing theory to the valuation of investments in nonfinancial assets in which much of the value is attributable to flexibility and learning over time. The aim of this article was to discuss the potential advantages shown by using the payoff method in the valuation of the cost-effectiveness of competing HPV immunization programs. This was the first study, to the best of our knowledge, to use the payoff method to determine the real option values of 4 different HPV vaccination strategies targeting female subjects aged 12, 15, 18, and 25 years. The payoff method derives the real option value from the triangular payoff distribution of the project's net present value, which is treated as a triangular fuzzy number. To inform the real option model, cost-effectiveness data were derived from an empirically calibrated Bayesian model designed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a multicohort HPV vaccination strategy in the context of the current cervical cancer screening program in Italy. A net health benefit approach was used to calculate the expected fuzzy net present value for each of the 4 vaccination strategies evaluated. Costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained seemed to be related to the number of cohorts targeted: a single cohort of girls aged 12 years (€10,955 [95% CI, -1,021 to 28,212]) revealed the lowest cost among the 4 alternative strategies evaluated. The real option valuation challenged the cost-effectiveness dominance of a single cohort of 12-year-old girls. The simultaneous vaccination of 2 cohorts of girls aged 12 and 15

Real Options in an Aymmetric Duopoly : Who Benefits from your Competitive Disadvantage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pawlina, G.; Kort, P.M.

2001-01-01

This paper considers the impact of investment cost asymmetry on the value and optimal real option exercise strategies of firms under imperfect competition.Both firms have an opportunity to invest in a project enhancing (ceteris paribus) the profit now.We show that three types of equilibria exist and

EL MÉTODO DE DIFERENCIAS FINITAS EN EVALUACIÓN DE OPCIONES REALES THE FINITE DIFFERENCE METHOD IN REAL OPTIONS VALUATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sebastián Otero G

2008-06-01

representa su capacidad de incorporar en el análisis el valor de la flexibilidad operativa del proyecto.In the past few years, real options, an extension of financial derivatives, have arisen as an alternative to traditional valuation methods, such as net present value (NPV. The key attribute of real options is that they take into consideration the uncertainty and flexibility involved in investment valuation. This article provides an overview of the finite difference method, by presenting an application to the real options valuation. The empirical section of the article, which makes use of the implicit finite difference method (IFD, analyzes the options of waiting, abandoning, contracting, expanding and switching, by valuing all the options involved and their possible combinations. The results are compared with those of the NPV method and the binomial tree with a logarithmic transformation (BTLT. Both methods (IFD and BTLT yield similar results, being both greater than those provided by the NPV. This difference comes to no surprise as it represents the value of the flexibility associated to an investment opportunity.

What is the (Real Option) Value of a College Degree?

OpenAIRE

Jeffrey R. Stokes

2013-01-01

The value of a college degree is often quantified as the difference in earnings between those with and without a degree. The research presented here operationalizes this idea in two important ways. First, since future income and tuition are uncertain, a contingent claims model is developed and the appropriate discount rate for valuing future earnings is, therefore, endogenized given an economy that does not permit arbitrage. Second, the model is sensitive to the valuation of the real option t...

Designing regulatory frameworks for merchant transmission investments by real options analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pringles, Rolando; Olsina, Fernando; Garcés, Francisco

2014-01-01

In deregulated electricity markets, the transmission network is a key infrastructure for enabling competition in the generation sector. A deficient expansion of the transmission grid prevents the realization of the benefits in terms of efficiency associated with market mechanisms. Consequently, it is essential to provide clear investment policies and economic signals to attract timely and efficient transmission investments in order to develop the system at minimum cost meeting the requirements of generators and consumers, while keeping adequate levels of service quality and reliability. This paper proposes a modern tool of economic evaluation based on real options analysis that provides the regulator the ability to assess various incentives that would lead transmission investors to make efficient decisions in highly uncertain environments. Real options properly values partially irreversible investment decisions, such as to defer, modify or abandon an investment project in response to the arrival of new information or as uncertainties are resolved. Decisions are evaluated from the point of view of a transmission investor trying to maximize its own profits in the time period set to recover the capital invested. The results allow the study of the behavior of transmission investors regarding their decision making when they have the possibility to manage the option to defer, under different regulatory schemes that encourage the expansion of the transmission system. - Highlights: • Regulatory frameworks for efficient and timely transmission expansions are designed. • Irreversibility and uncertainty of transmission investment is properly accounted for. • Response of network investors to regulatory incentives is quantitatively established

Cost-effective design of ringwall storage hybrid power plants: A real options analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weibel, Sebastian; Madlener, Reinhard

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Economic viability, optimal size, and siting of a hybrid ringwall hydro power plant. • Real options analysis for optimal investment timing and stochastic storage volumes. • Stochastic PV and solar power production affects optimal size of the storage device. • Monte Carlo simulation is used for wind/solar power, el. price, and investment cost. • Numerical computations for two different hybrid ringwall storage plant scenarios. - Abstract: We study the economic viability and optimal sizing and siting of a hybrid plant that combines a ringwall hydro storage system with wind and solar power plants (ringwall storage hybrid power plant, RSHPP). A real options model is introduced to analyze the economics of an onshore RSHPP, and in particular of the varying storage volume in light of the stochastic character of wind and solar power, as well as the optimal investment timing under uncertainty. In fact, many uncertainties arise in such a project. Energy production is determined by the stochastic character of wind and solar power, and affects the optimal size of the storage device. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to analyze the following sources of uncertainty: (i) wind intensity and solar irradiation; (ii) future electricity price; and (iii) investment costs. The results yield the optimal size of the storage device; the energy market on which the operator should sell the electricity generated; numerical examples for two different RSHPP scenarios; and a real options model for analyzing the opportunity to defer the project investment and thus to exploit the value of waiting

Real options approach to inter-sectoral migration of U.S.farm labor

Science.gov (United States)

Gulcan Onel; Barry K. Goodwin

2014-01-01

The core of the literature on inter-sectoral labor migration is based on net present value models of investment in which individuals are assumed to migrate to take advantage of positive wage differentials. In this article, we argue that a real options approach, taken together with the adjustment costs associated with sectoral relocation, may provide a basis for...

A real option-based simulation model to evaluate investments in pump storage plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muche, Thomas

2009-01-01

Investments in pump storage plants are expected to grow especially due to their ability to store an excess of supply from wind power plants. In order to evaluate these investments correctly the peculiarities of pump storage plants and the characteristics of liberalized power markets have to be considered. The main characteristics of power markets are the strong power price volatility and the occurrence of prices spikes. In this article a valuation model is developed capturing these aspects using power price simulation, optimization of unit commitment and capital market theory. This valuation model is able to value a future price-based unit commitment planning that corresponds to future scope of actions also called real options. The resulting real option value for the pump storage plant is compared with the traditional net present value approach. Because this approach is not able to evaluate scope of actions correctly it results in strongly smaller investment values and forces wrong investment decisions.

A real option-based model for promoting sustainable energy projects under the clean development mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Hyounkyu; Park, Taeil; Kim, Byungil; Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Hyoungkwan

2013-01-01

The clean development mechanism (CDM) provides a way of assisting sustainable development in developing countries for developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Despite its intended benefits, the primary CDM market decreased from US$5.8 billion in 2006 to US$1.5 billion in 2010. One of the primary reasons for the reduction of market size is that developed countries as investors have a high level of risks caused by the volatility of the market price for certified emission reductions (CERs). Another issue to be resolved is that developing countries as host countries cannot claim any right to the CERs produced on their own land. This paper presents a real option-based model for both parties (developed and developing countries) to have their fair share of profits and risks by controlling the uncertainty associated with the future value of CERs. A case study illustrated that the proposed model can effectively attract investors to CDM projects leading to mitigation of climate change. - Highlights: ► This study focused on the risks associated with the uncertainty of future CER value in CDM projects. ► A real option-based model was developed for both parties in CDM to have fair share of profit and risk. ► Key variables and boundary conditions were identified for application of real option to CDM. ► The model allowed both parties to own options, which have an identical value. ► Hydropower plant projects in Indonesia were used to illustrate the implementation of the model

Applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lin, Tyrone T. [Department of International Business, National Dong Hwa University, 1, Sec. 2, Da Hsueh Road, Shou-Feng, Hualien 974, Taiwan (China)]. E-mail: tjlin@mail.ndhu.edu.tw; Ko, C.-C. [Department of International Trade, Jin Wen Institute of Technology, Taiwan (China); Yeh, H.-N. [Graduate School of Management, Ming Chuan University, Taiwan (China)

2007-04-15

This study focuses on how to assess the optimal environmental investment decisions under economic and ecological uncertainty, and establishes the continuous time model using the real option approach to optimize environmental pollution policy. Unlike traditional cost benefit analysis, this work extends the model of [Pindyck, R.S., 2002. Optimal timing problems in environmental economics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26(9-10), 1677-1697], and attempts to identify the storage threshold of pollution stocks and the optimal timing for implementing environmental pollution decisions.

Applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Tyrone T.; Ko, C.-C.; Yeh, H.-N.

2007-01-01

This study focuses on how to assess the optimal environmental investment decisions under economic and ecological uncertainty, and establishes the continuous time model using the real option approach to optimize environmental pollution policy. Unlike traditional cost benefit analysis, this work extends the model of [Pindyck, R.S., 2002. Optimal timing problems in environmental economics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26(9-10), 1677-1697], and attempts to identify the storage threshold of pollution stocks and the optimal timing for implementing environmental pollution decisions

Use of real options in nuclear power plant valuation in the presence of uncertainty with CO2 emission credit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiriyama, Eriko; Suzuki, Atsuyuki

2004-01-01

The purpose of this study is to analyze the value of an investment in power generation assets that do not emit CO 2 , by using a real option model. This study evaluates the effects of future uncertainty on investment decision-making, by focusing on the uncertainty of CO 2 emission credits [yen/t-CO 2 ] in the fairly near future in Japan. Electric utilities are required to keep plans to prepare for various future uncertainties such as the price of CO 2 emission credits. The real option approach can evaluate the option value of decision-making under uncertainty. This study examined the option value of a power plant [yen/KW] to evaluate the effects of an externality under uncertainty. The results showed that nuclear power would have the most value under the forthcoming CO 2 emission limitations. In order to secure the effectiveness of measures against global warming, we should reconsider the roles of nuclear power plants in Japan. Finally, the real option model is shown to be an effective candidate for a decision-making support tool to deal with problems in energy environmental policy. (author)

The option to expand a project: its assessment with the binomial options pricing model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salvador Cruz Rambaud

Full Text Available Traditional methods of investment appraisal, like the Net Present Value, are not able to include the value of the operational flexibility of the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to expand, are assumed to be included in the project information in addition to the expected cash flows. Thus, to calculate the total value of the project, we are going to apply the methodology of the Net Present Value to the different scenarios derived from the existence of the real option to expand. Taking into account the analogy between real and financial options, the value of including an option to expand is explored by using the binomial options pricing model. In this way, estimating the value of the option to expand is a tool which facilitates the control of the uncertainty element implicit in the project. Keywords: Real options, Option to expand, Binomial options pricing model, Investment project appraisal

A real options approach to analyse wind energy investments under different support schemes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitzing, Lena; Juul, Nina; Drud, Michael; Boomsma, Trine Krogh

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Real options model for wind projects considering investment timing and sizing. • Introducing a capacity constraint in the optimisation. • Addressing several uncertainty factors while still providing analytical solution. • Comparative policy analysis of investment incentives from different support schemes. • Improved quantification of trade-off between fast deployment and large projects. - Abstract: A real options model is developed to evaluate wind energy investments in a realistic and easily applicable way. Considering optimal investment timing and sizing (capacity choice), the model introduces a capacity constraint as part of the optimisation. Several correlated uncertainty factors are combined into a single stochastic process, which allows for analytical (closed-form) solutions. The approach is well suited for quantitative policy analysis, such as the comparison of different support schemes. A case study for offshore wind in the Baltic Sea quantifies differences in investment incentives under feed-in tariffs, feed-in premiums and tradable green certificates. Investors can under certificate schemes require up to 3% higher profit margins than under tariffs due to higher variance in profits. Feed-in tariffs may lead to 15% smaller project sizes. This trade-off between faster deployment of smaller projects and slower deployment of larger projects is neglected using traditional net present value approaches. In the analysis of such trade-off, previous real options studies did not consider a capacity constraint, which is here shown to decrease the significance of the effect. The impact on investment incentives also depends on correlations between the underlying stochastic factors. The results may help investors to make informed investment decisions and policy makers to strategically design renewable support and develop tailor-made incentive schemes.

ARC-VM: An architecture real options complexity-based valuation methodology for military systems-of-systems acquisitions

Science.gov (United States)

Domercant, Jean Charles

The combination of today's national security environment and mandated acquisition policies makes it necessary for military systems to interoperate with each other to greater degrees. This growing interdependency results in complex Systems-of-Systems (SoS) that only continue to grow in complexity to meet evolving capability needs. Thus, timely and affordable acquisition becomes more difficult, especially in the face of mounting budgetary pressures. To counter this, architecting principles must be applied to SoS design. The research objective is to develop an Architecture Real Options Complexity-Based Valuation Methodology (ARC-VM) suitable for acquisition-level decision making, where there is a stated desire for more informed tradeoffs between cost, schedule, and performance during the early phases of design. First, a framework is introduced to measure architecture complexity as it directly relates to military SoS. Development of the framework draws upon a diverse set of disciplines, including Complexity Science, software architecting, measurement theory, and utility theory. Next, a Real Options based valuation strategy is developed using techniques established for financial stock options that have recently been adapted for use in business and engineering decisions. The derived complexity measure provides architects with an objective measure of complexity that focuses on relevant complex system attributes. These attributes are related to the organization and distribution of SoS functionality and the sharing and processing of resources. The use of Real Options provides the necessary conceptual and visual framework to quantifiably and traceably combine measured architecture complexity, time-valued performance levels, as well as programmatic risks and uncertainties. An example suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) capability demonstrates the development and usefulness of the resulting architecture complexity & Real Options based valuation methodology. Different

“Let’s Wait and See!” The Real Option to Switch as a Value Component of Customer Relationships

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Henseler, J.; Roemer, E.

2013-01-01

We suggest that a customer’s option to switch suppliers, and to wait and see before switching, adds to customer value in uncertain markets, and affects the customer’s switching behavior. We use a real options model to examine the value of this option and conduct sensitivity analyses based on data

Real Estate Economics, Management and Investments: New Perspectives and Frontiers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vincenzo Del Giudice

2018-03-01

Full Text Available New perspectives and frontiers were highlighted in a Special Issue on “Real Estate Economics, Finance and Investments”. The twenty-eight papers that were selected and published emanated from scholars from universities all over the world with the aim to represent more recent advances in building management, mass appraisal methods, real estate risk management, economic evaluation of real estate investment projects, real estate market, property, social housing, real estate economics, real estate finance, building transformation and economic effects on environment. These papers helped to determine a unique and valuable opportunity to experiment with multiple approaches to these ever more crucial topics. This note proposes a brief review of the twenty-eight papers, concluding with some reflections about policy, practice and research on real estate issues.

Using real options to determine optimal funding strategies for CO2 capture, transport and storage projects in the European Union

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eckhause, Jeremy; Herold, Johannes

2014-01-01

Several projects in the European Union (EU) are currently under development to implement the carbon capture, transport and storage (CCS) technology on a large scale and may be subject to public funding under EU support initiatives. These CCS projects may develop any combination of three types of operating levels: pilot, demonstration and full-scale, representing progressing levels of electric power generation capability. Several projects have commenced at the demonstration level, with full-scale commercial levels planned for approximately 2020. Taking the perspective of a funding agency, we employ a real options framework for determining an optimal project selection and funding strategy for the development of full-scale CCS plants. Specifically, we formulate and solve a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) for obtaining optimal funding solutions in order to achieve at least one successfully operating full-scale CCS plant by a target year. The model demonstrates the improved risk reduction by employing such a multi-stage competition. We then extend the model to consider two sensitivities: (1) the flexibility to spend that budget among the time periods and (2) optimizing the budget, but specifying each time period's allocation a priori. State size and runtimes of the SDP model are provided. - Highlights: • Projects implementing three different CCS technology types are described. • We obtain projects’ transition probabilities and costs from expert interviews. • We use a multi-stage real options model to obtain optimal funding strategies. • Using this approach, actual decision-makers could reduce risks in CCS development

The RealGas and RealGasH2O options of the TOUGH+ code for the simulation of coupled fluid and heat flow in tight/shale gas systems

Science.gov (United States)

We developed two new EOS additions to the TOUGH+ family of codes, the RealGasH2O and RealGas. The RealGasH2O EOS option describes the non-isothermal two-phase flow of water and a real gas mixture in gas reservoirs, with a particular focus in ultra-tight (such as tight-sand and sh...

Factorials of real negative and imaginary numbers - A new perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Thukral, Ashwani K

2014-01-01

Presently, factorials of real negative numbers and imaginary numbers, except for zero and negative integers are interpolated using the Euler's gamma function. In the present paper, the concept of factorials has been generalised as applicable to real and imaginary numbers, and multifactorials. New functions based on Euler's factorial function have been proposed for the factorials of real negative and imaginary numbers. As per the present concept, the factorials of real negative numbers, are complex numbers. The factorials of real negative integers have their imaginary part equal to zero, thus are real numbers. Similarly, the factorials of imaginary numbers are complex numbers. The moduli of the complex factorials of real negative numbers, and imaginary numbers are equal to their respective real positive number factorials. Fractional factorials and multifactorials have been defined in a new perspective. The proposed concept has also been extended to Euler's gamma function for real negative numbers and imaginary numbers, and beta function.

“Let’s Wait and See!” – The Real Option to Switch as a New Element of Customer Value

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Henseler, Jörg; Roemer, Ellen

2013-01-01

We suggest that a customer’s option to switch suppliers, and to wait and see before switching, adds to customer value in uncertain markets, and affects the customer’s switching behavior. We use a real options model to examine the value of this option and conduct sensitivity analyses based on data

The RealGas and RealGasH2O Options of the TOUGH+ Code for the Simulation of Coupled Fluid and Heat Flow in Tight/Shale Gas Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moridis, George; Freeman, Craig

2013-09-30

We developed two new EOS additions to the TOUGH+ family of codes, the RealGasH2O and RealGas . The RealGasH2O EOS option describes the non-isothermal two-phase flow of water and a real gas mixture in gas reservoirs, with a particular focus in ultra-tight (such as tight-sand and shale gas) reservoirs. The gas mixture is treated as either a single-pseudo-component having a fixed composition, or as a multicomponent system composed of up to 9 individual real gases. The RealGas option has the same general capabilities, but does not include water, thus describing a single-phase, dry-gas system. In addition to the standard capabilities of all members of the TOUGH+ family of codes (fully-implicit, compositional simulators using both structured and unstructured grids), the capabilities of the two codes include: coupled flow and thermal effects in porous and/or fractured media, real gas behavior, inertial (Klinkenberg) effects, full micro-flow treatment, Darcy and non-Darcy flow through the matrix and fractures of fractured media, single- and multi-component gas sorption onto the grains of the porous media following several isotherm options, discrete and fracture representation, complex matrix-fracture relationships, and porosity-permeability dependence on pressure changes. The two options allow the study of flow and transport of fluids and heat over a wide range of time frames and spatial scales not only in gas reservoirs, but also in problems of geologic storage of greenhouse gas mixtures, and of geothermal reservoirs with multi-component condensable (H2O and CH4) and non-condensable gas mixtures. The codes are verified against available analytical and semi-analytical solutions. Their capabilities are demonstrated in a series of problems of increasing complexity, ranging from isothermal flow in simpler 1D and 2D conventional gas reservoirs, to non-isothermal gas flow in 3D fractured shale gas reservoirs involving 4 types of fractures, micro-flow, non-Darcy flow and gas

The value of product flexibility in nuclear hydrogen technologies: A real options analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botterud, Audun; Yildiz, Bilge; Conzelmann, Guenter; Petri, Mark C.

2009-01-01

Previous economic studies of nuclear hydrogen technologies focused on levelized costs without accounting for risks and uncertainties faced by potential investors. To address some of these risks and uncertainties, we used real options theory to assess the profitability of three nuclear hydrogen production technologies in evolving electricity and hydrogen markets. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to represent the uncertainty in hydrogen and electricity prices. The model computes both the expected value and the distribution of discounted profits from the production plant. It also quantifies the value of the option to switch between hydrogen and electricity production. Under these assumptions, we conclude that investors will find significant value in the capability to switch plant output between electricity and hydrogen. (author)

A real-options analysis of wine grape farming in north west Victoria

OpenAIRE

Seyoum, Emayenesh; Chan, Chris

2012-01-01

This paper reports a use of a real-options valuation methodology to analyse wine grape farm investment under price and yield uncertainty. Revenue levels to incentivise entry and exit were calculated for three different sizes of wine grape farms in North West Victoria. The modelling identified lower exit and higher entry triggers than indicated by conventional net present value calculation. The wide gap of estimated indeterminacy in farm investment highlights the intertwined influence of numer...

Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Real Options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Havlíček

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The first part of this paper describes the nuclear fuel cycle. It is divided into three parts. The first part, called Front-End, covers all activities connected with fuel procurement and fabrication. The middle part of the cycle includes fuel reload design activities and the operation of the fuel in the reactor. Back-End comprises all activities ensuring safe separation of spent fuel and radioactive waste from the environment. The individual stages of the fuel cycle are strongly interrelated. Overall economic optimization is very difficult. Generally, NPV is used for an economic evaluation in the nuclear fuel cycle. However the high volatility of uranium prices in the Front-End, and the large uncertainty of both economic and technical parameters in the Back-End, make the use of NPV difficult. The real option method is able to evaluate the value added by flexibility of decision making by a company under conditions of uncertainty. The possibility of applying this method to the nuclear fuel cycle evaluation is studied. 

Understanding the advantages of open innovation practices in corporate venturing in terms of real options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vanhaverbeke, W.P.M.; Vrande, van de V.J.A.; Chesbrough, H.

2008-01-01

Part of the advantages of using open innovation (compared to closed innovation) in corporate venturing can be explained by applying the real options approach. Open innovation in risk-laden activities such as corporate venturing has the following advantages: (i) benefits from early involvement in new

32 CFR 644.168 - Exercise of options.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Exercise of options. 644.168 Section 644.168... ESTATE HANDBOOK Acquisition Procurement of Options Prior to Real Estate Directives (military) § 644.168 Exercise of options. Upon issuance of a real estate directive for acquisition of the optioned real property...

Embedded and real time system development a software engineering perspective concepts, methods and principles

CERN Document Server

Saeed, Saqib; Darwish, Ashraf; Abraham, Ajith

2014-01-01

Nowadays embedded and real-time systems contain complex software. The complexity of embedded systems is increasing, and the amount and variety of software in the embedded products are growing. This creates a big challenge for embedded and real-time software development processes and there is a need to develop separate metrics and benchmarks. “Embedded and Real Time System Development: A Software Engineering Perspective: Concepts, Methods and Principles” presents practical as well as conceptual knowledge of the latest tools, techniques and methodologies of embedded software engineering and real-time systems. Each chapter includes an in-depth investigation regarding the actual or potential role of software engineering tools in the context of the embedded system and real-time system. The book presents state-of-the art and future perspectives with industry experts, researchers, and academicians sharing ideas and experiences including surrounding frontier technologies, breakthroughs, innovative solutions and...

Determining the Real Causes of Financial Crisis in Islamic Economic Perspective: ANP Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

. Ascarya

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Objective – The purpose of this study is to determine the real causes of financial crisis from Islamic economic perspective.Methods - This study applies Analytic Network Process (ANP to determine the real causes of financial crisis from Islamic economic perspective to be able to formulate the real solutions to end financial crisis.Results - The ANP results show that the real causes of financial crisis from Islamic economic perspective are Social Instability (EXTERNAL FACTOR, Speculation (MISBEHAVIOR, Ineffective Fiscal System (UNSUSTAINABLE FISCAL SYSTEM, Hedonism (MISBEHAVIOR, Fractional Reserve Banking System (UNSTABLE MONETARY SYSTEM, Political Instability (EXTERNAL FACTOR, Corruption (POOR GOVERNANCE, Interest Rate (UNSTABLE MONETARY SYSTEM, Fiat Money (UNSTABLE MONETARY SYSTEM, and the Wrong Man in the Wrong Place (POOR GOVERNANCE. These main real causes should be removed gradually in order to systematically and gradually improve the stability of financial system so that financial crisis will not reappear again and again in the future.Conclusions - Financial crisis would not happen under Islamic economic system if all Allah’s laws in financial dealings were followed. Financial crisis in conventional economic system could be prevented or lessened by gradually adopting Islamic economic and finance laws and regulations, partly or fully, especially the main pillars of Islamic financial system, namely the prohibition of ribā (usury or interest, prohibition of maysir (gambling and game of chance or speculation and prohibition of gharar (excessive uncertainty, in their many forms.

What is the best way to enter Florida's real estate market in today's economy? : This may serve as a simple guide which offers options for a startup real estate company to enter any real estate market

OpenAIRE

Bryan, Paul

2011-01-01

P&I International real estate (PIIRE for short) is a real estate company which left the Florida real estate market in 2006. PIIRE is now seeking the best method to re-enter the Florida’s real estate market within the near future. The owners are seeking the best method to re-establish their real estate business in Florida. At this point the location in Florida has not yet been determined. The determining factors include financing options, business type entry mode, and governmental issues. ...

Decision-making model of generation technology under uncertainty based on real option theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ming, Zeng; Ping, Zhang; Shunkun, Yu; Ge, Zhang

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. • The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced. • Practical data was used to prove the validity of the model. • Impact of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed. - Abstract: The introduction of market competition and the increased uncertainty factors makes the generators have to decide not only on whether to invest generation capacity or not but also on what kind of generation technology to choose. In this paper, a decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced as the fundamental of the model. In order to explain the decision-making process of generator’s investment, the decision-making optimization model was built considering two generation technologies, i.e., the heat-only system and the combined heat and power generation. Also, we discussed the theory deducing process, which explained how to eliminate the overrated economic potential caused by risk hazard, based on economic evaluation of both generation technologies. Finally, practical data from electricity market of Inner Mongolia was used to prove the validity of the model and the impact of uncertainties of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed according to the simulated results.

Rewarding reductions, realizing results. Legal options for making compensated reduction a reality

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Petsonk, A. [Environmental Defense, Washington DC (United States)

2005-07-01

The concept of 'Compensated Reduction' (CR) offers a potentially crucial set of incentives for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from tropical deforestation. It is urgent that these incentives begin to flow as soon as possible - urgent from the perspective of limiting emissions and stabilizing GHG concentrations at a level, and in a time frame, that would avert dangerous irreversible climate change. It is urgent from the perspective of saving the world's dwindling rainforest biodiversity. And it is urgent from the social perspective of the communities that live in - and depend on - the world's rainforests. But from a legal perspective, what options are available for bringing the Compensated Reduction framework forward immediately, not only to spur capacity-building in tropical forest nations, but also to ensure that it begins to deliver, as soon as possible, real financial incentives for keeping forests standing? This chapter explores four legal options, namely, (1) allowing tropical forest nations to participate in Kyoto by joining Annex B of the Protocol; (2) amending the Marrakesh Rules to broaden the Clean Development Mechanism so that it embraces CR; (3) adopting a 'stand-alone' agreement; and (4) providing 'guaranteed carbon market access'. Under this last, hitherto unexplored option, the UNFCCC COP would take an early decision guaranteeing that developing nations that, between now and 2012, successfully reduce national rates of deforestation below a historical baseline, would receive tradable carbon credits that are fully fungible in the global carbon market after 2012. The chapter concludes by recommending that nations explore Option (4) in greater depth.

Integrated Portfolio Analysis: Return on Investment and Real Options Analysis of Intelligence Information Systems (Cryptologic Carry On Program)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Rios, Jr., Cesar G; Housel, Thomas; Mun, Johnathan

2006-01-01

...) on individual projects, programs, and processes within a portfolio of IT investments. Using KVA historical data as a platform, the authors evaluate potential strategic investments with real options analysis...

Method for producing three-dimensional real image using radiographic perspective views of an object

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellingson, W.A.; Read, A.A.

1976-01-01

A sequence of separate radiographs may be made by indexing a radiation source along a known path relative to the object under study. Thus, each radiograph contains information from a different perspective. A holographically-recorded image is then made from each radiographic perspective by exact re-tracing of the rays through each radiographic perspective such that the re-tracing duplicates the geometry under which it was originally prepared. The holographically-stored images are simultaneously illuminated with the conjugate of the reference beam used in the original recordings. The result is the generation of a three-dimensional real image of the object such that a light-sensitive device can be moved to veiw the real image along any desired surface with the optical information in all other surfaces greatly suppressed. 4 claims, 5 drawing figures

Real options as an alternative methodology to assess investment projects Las opciones reales como metodología alternativa en la evaluación de proyectos de inversión

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raúl Enrique Aristizábal Velásquez

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to broaden the applicability of the assessment methodology of investment projects through real options as a key element for investment decision making. Traditional project valuation methodologies are described and their gaps, which special characteristic is uncertainty, are presented. A parallel between financial and real options that could be used for valuation is made, using the binomial tree method. Finally, a case study in the construction sector shows a project valuation using expand and waiting options.Este trabajo busca ampliar la aplicabilidad de la metodología de valoración de proyectos de inversión por medio de opciones reales como un elemento fundamental al momento de tomar una decisión de si se debe invertir o no. Se hace un recorrido por las técnicas tradicionales para valorar un proyecto de inversión y se plantean los vacíos que estos dejan, con respecto a proyectos en los que su principal característica es la incertidumbre. Se realiza un paralelo entre las opciones financieras y las opciones reales que per- mita valorar, utilizando la metodología de los árboles binomiales. Por último, se elabora un caso del que se plantea valorar una opción de espera y una opción de expandir de manera conjunta en el sector de la construcción.

The Interaction between Real Options and Financial Hedging: An Empirical Study of Danish Non-Financial Companies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom

The interaction between real options and financial hedging is analyzed empirically. A majority of Danish non-financial companies either (1) chooses at times not to hedge an exchange rate operating exposure financially due to the possibility of the company to react to changes in exchange rates...

Real options and a large producer: the case of electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keppo, J.

2003-01-01

In this paper we extend the real option theory to consider the situation of a large producer and we employ the model to electricity markets. This is important because many producers in these markets affect the market supply and, therefore, also the electricity price. This production price effect influences not only on the assets that the energy company owns but also on its investment opportunities. We show that this production's price effect has to be considered in the investment analysis if the company is not able to hedge the price effect in the financial markets and if there is no competition on the investment opportunity. (author)

In or Out: The Effect of Euro Membership on the Exercise of Real Business Options

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos

2011-01-01

This empirical study of manufacturing firms (NAICS 33) in the EU15 countries goes beyond the trade statistics that have indicated only a small to negligible effect from the introduction of the Euro and shows that the introduction of the Euro has made Euro firms (firms based in one of the twelve...... Euro countries) more inclined than non-Euro firms (firms based in one of the three non-Euro countries: UK, Sweden and Denmark) to undertake various forms of real actions (exercise real business options) such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch...

The Application of the Real Options Method for the Evaluation of High-Rise Construction Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Izotov, Aleksandr; Rostova, Olga; Dubgorn, Alissa

2018-03-01

The paper is devoted to the problem of evaluation of high-rise construction projects in a rapidly changing environment. The authors proposed an algorithm for constructing and embedding real options in high-rise construction projects, which makes it possible to increase the flexibility of managing multi-stage projects that have the ability to adapt to changing conditions of implementation.

Real options valuation of US federal renewable energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris; Wiser, Ryan H.

2007-01-01

Benefits analysis of US Federal government research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD 3 ) programmes for renewable energy (RE) technology improvement typically employs a deterministic forecast of the cost and performance of renewable and non-renewable fuels. The benefits estimate for the programme derives from the difference between two forecasts, with and without the RD 3 programme in place. Three deficiencies of this approach are that it ignores: (1) uncertainty in the cost of non-renewable energy (NRE); (2) the possibility of adjustment to the RD 3 effort commensurate with the evolving state of the world; and (3) the underlying technical risk associated with RD 3 . In this paper, an intuitive approach to determining the option value of RE RD 3 is developed. This approach seeks to tackle the first two deficiencies noted above by providing an estimate via a compound real option of an RE RD 3 programme in a future with uncertain NRE costs. A binomial lattice reveals the economic intuition underlying the decision-making process, while a numerical example illustrates the option components embedded in a simplified representation of current US Federal RE RD 3

 Euro Membership as a Real Option Trigger: An Empirical Study of EU15 Manufacturing Firms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom

) to exercise real options such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch suppliers, and to generally expand in the Euro-area. The results are robust after controlling for the size of the firms and their sales in the Euro-area. The results go beyond what...

Real options valuation and optimization of energy assets

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Matthew

In this thesis we present algorithms for the valuation and optimal operation of natural gas storage facilities, hydro-electric power plants and thermal power generators in competitive markets. Real options theory is used to derive nonlinear partial-integro-differential equations (PIDEs) for the valuation and optimal operating strategies of all types of facilities. The equations are designed to incorporate a wide class of spot price models that can exhibit the same time-dependent, mean-reverting dynamics and price spikes as those observed in most energy markets. Particular attention is paid to the operational characteristics of real energy assets. For natural gas storage facilities these characteristics include: working gas capacities, variable deliverability and injection rates and cycling limitations. For thermal power plants relevant operational characteristics include variable start-up times and costs, control response time lags, minimum generating levels, nonlinear output functions, structural limitations on ramp rates, and minimum up/down time restrictions. For hydro-electric units, head effects and environmental constraints are addressed. We illustrate the models with numerical examples of a gas storage facility, a hydro-electric pump storage facility and a thermal power plant. This PIDE framework is the first in the literature to achieve second order accuracy in characterizing the operating states of hydro-electric and hydro-thermal power plants. The continuous state space representation derived in this thesis can therefore achieve far greater realism in terms of operating state specification than any other method in the literature to date. This thesis is also the first and only to allow for any continuous time jump diffusion processes in order to account for price spikes.

What do you do when the binomial cannot value real options? The LSM model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Alonso

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The Least-Squares Monte Carlo model (LSM model has emerged as the derivative valuation technique with the greatest impact in current practice. As with other options valuation models, the LSM algorithm was initially posited in the field of financial derivatives and its extension to the realm of real options requires considering certain questions which might hinder understanding of the algorithm and which the present paper seeks to address. The implementation of the LSM model combines Monte Carlo simulation, dynamic programming and statistical regression in a flexible procedure suitable for application to valuing nearly all types of corporate investments. The goal of this paper is to show how the LSM algorithm is applied in the context of a corporate investment, thus contributing to the understanding of the principles of its operation.

Assessing the Option to Abandon an Investment Project by the Binomial Options Pricing Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salvador Cruz Rambaud

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Usually, traditional methods for investment project appraisal such as the net present value (hereinafter NPV do not incorporate in their values the operational flexibility offered by including a real option included in the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to abandon, are analysed as a complement to cash flow sequence which quantifies the project. In this way, by considering the existing analogy with financial options, a mathematical expression is derived by using the binomial options pricing model. This methodology provides the value of the option to abandon the project within one, two, and in general n periods. Therefore, this paper aims to be a useful tool in determining the value of the option to abandon according to its residual value, thus making easier the control of the uncertainty element within the project.

Integrated weed management for sustainable rice production: concepts, perspectives and options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amartalingam Rajan

2002-01-01

Weed management has always been in some way integrated with cultural and biological methods, probably occurring more fortuitously than purposefully. Experience has shown that repeated use of any weed control technique especially in monocultures production systems results in rapid emergence of weeds more adapted to the new practice. In intensive high input farming systems, heavy selection pressure for herbicide tolerant weeds and the environmental impacts of these inputs are important tissues that require a good understanding of agroecosystem for successful integration of available options. Rice culture, in particular flooded rice culture has always employed integration through an evolution of management practices over the generations. However, a vast majority office farmers in Asia have yet to achieve the high returns realised by farmers elsewhere, where a near optimum combination of high inputs are being effectively integrated for maximum productivity. In addition to technological and management limitations, farmers in developing countries are faced with social, economic and policy constraints. On the other hand, farmers who had achieved considerable increases in productivity through labour replacing technologies, in particular direct seeding with the aid of herbicides, are now faced with issues related to environmental concerns due to high levels of these inputs. The issues facing weed scientists and farmers alike in managing weeds effectively and in a manner to ensure sustainability have become more challenging than ever before. In the last two decades, no issue has been discussed so. intensively as Sustainable Farming, Sustainable Agriculture or Alternative Agriculture within the broader global concept of Sustainable Development. To address these challenges a clear perspective of sustainable farming is essential. This paper addresses these concepts, perspectives and options for choices in weed management for sustainable rice production. (Author)

Stochastic control and real options valuation of thermal storage-enabled demand response from flexible district energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitapbayev, Yerkin; Moriarty, John; Mancarella, Pierluigi

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We calculate the real option value of flexibility from CHP-thermal storage. • Stochastic optimal feedback control problem is solved under uncertain market prices. • Efficient real-time numerical solutions combine simulation, regression and recursion. • Clear, interpretable feedback control maps are produced for each hour of the day. • We give a realistic UK case study using projected market gas and electricity prices. - Abstract: In district energy systems powered by Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants, thermal storage can significantly increase CHP flexibility to respond to real time market signals and therefore improve the business case of such demand response schemes in a Smart Grid environment. However, main challenges remain as to what is the optimal way to control inter-temporal storage operation in the presence of uncertain market prices, and then how to value the investment into storage as flexibility enabler. In this outlook, the aim of this paper is to propose a model for optimal and dynamic control and long term valuation of CHP-thermal storage in the presence of uncertain market prices. The proposed model is formulated as a stochastic control problem and numerically solved through Least Squares Monte Carlo regression analysis, with integrated investment and operational timescale analysis equivalent to real options valuation models encountered in finance. Outputs are represented by clear and interpretable feedback control strategy maps for each hour of the day, thus suitable for real time demand response under uncertainty. Numerical applications to a realistic UK case study with projected market gas and electricity prices exemplify the proposed approach and quantify the robustness of the selected storage solutions

Flexibility in using Diesel or biodiesel: an approach via real options; Flexibilidade na utilizacao de Diesel ou biodiesel: uma abordagem via opcoes reais

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goncalves, Edson Daniel Lopes [Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: edson@fgvmail.br; Ferreira, Leonardo Leandro [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: leonardo.ferreira@petrobras.com.br

2008-09-15

This work will approach the bio diesel development as renewable source fuel in the Brazilian energetic matrix. Essentially, the utilization flexibility will be considered between the traditional petroleum origin Diesel and the vegetable origin Biodiesel. So, our target is the evaluation of the flexibility existent between those two fuels. A consideration will be made via real options, where the fuel choice for supplying is modelled as a an european options sequence. Those switch input real options attributes a value to the project and minimizes the risks associated to the energy offer shortage which is another recurrent problem inside our reality. At least, some comments will be made on the potential gain on the aggregate value for the Brazil, as a consequence of Diesel dependent road transportation.

REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT SCENARIOS IN THE PHILIPPINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Casper Agaton

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract - With the continuously rising energy demand and much dependence on imported fossil fuels, the Philippines is developing more sustainable sources of energy. Renewable energy seems to be a better alternative solution to meet the country’s energy supply and security concerns. Despite its huge potential, investment in renewable energy sources is challenged with competitive prices of fossil fuels, high start-up cost and lower feed-in tariff rates for renewables. To address these problems, this study aims to analyze energy investment scenarios in the Philippines using real options approach. This compares the attractiveness of investing in renewable energy over continuing to use coal for electricity generation under uncertainties in coal prices, investments cost, electricity prices, growth of investment in renewables, and imposing carbon tax for using fossil fuels.

Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boomsma, Trine Krogh; Meade, Nigel; Fleten, Stein-Erik

2012-01-01

-in tariff encourages earlier investment. Nevertheless, as investment has been undertaken, renewable energy certificate trading creates incentives for larger projects. In our baseline scenario and taking the fixed feed-in tariff as a base, the revenue required to trigger investments is 61% higher......This paper adopts a real options approach to analyze investment timing and capacity choice for renewable energy projects under different support schemes. The main purpose is to examine investment behavior under the most extensively employed support schemes, namely, feed-in tariffs and renewable...... energy certificate trading. We consider both multiple sources of uncertainty under each support scheme and uncertainty with respect to any change of support scheme, and we obtain both analytical (when possible) and numerical solutions. In a Nordic case study based on wind power, we find that the feed...

What makes and what does not make a real option? A study of equity shares in international joint ventures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cuypers, I.R.P.; Martin, Xavier

2010-01-01

This paper examines the boundaries of real options logic, with an application to joint ventures (JVs). We distinguish between forms of uncertainty that are resolved endogenously and those that are resolved exogenously, and theorize that only exogenous uncertainty will have the impact predicted by

Real options theory to the pricing of allowances contract to carbon emission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horii, Leticia Takahashi; Parente, Virginia; Goldemberg, Jose

2010-01-01

The objective of this work is to develop a pricing model contract for allowances to emit carbon through Real Options. Emissions allowances are equivalent tons of carbon traded between Annex I countries from companies that have the ability to reduce their emissions beyond what is assigned to it. The surplus of emission reductions produced by these companies may be sold in the emissions market. Thus, this work can contribute to improving the management of contractual risk and enable companies estimated the price at which a contract can be signed. Properly evaluate the contracts that the market environment is a challenge for companies. The historic low of information and randomness in the price of carbon allowances in the spot market suggest extreme caution in its use. (author)

Reducing uncertainty in load forecasts and using real options for improving capacity dispatch management through the utilization of weather and hydrologic forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, T.

2004-01-01

The effect of weather on electricity markets was discussed with particular focus on reducing weather uncertainty by improving short term weather forecasts. The implications of weather for hydroelectric power dispatch and use were also discussed. Although some errors in weather forecasting can result in economic benefits, most errors are associated with more costs than benefits. This presentation described how a real options analysis can make weather a favorable option. Four case studies were presented for exploratory data analysis of regional weather phenomena. These included: (1) the 2001 California electricity crisis, (2) the delta breeze effects on the California ISO, (3) the summer 2002 weather forecast error for ISO New England, and (4) the hydro plant asset valuation using weather uncertainty. It was concluded that there is a need for more economic methodological studies on the effect of weather on energy markets and costs. It was suggested that the real options theory should be applied to weather planning and utility applications. tabs., figs

Supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas industry

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mulan Xiaofeng

My dissertation concentrates on several aspects of supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry, including gas pipeline transportations, ocean LNG shipping logistics, and downstream storage. Chapter 1 briefly introduces the natural gas and LNG industries, and the topics studied in this thesis. Chapter 2 studies how to value U.S. natural gas pipeline network transport contracts as real options. It is common for natural gas shippers to value and manage contracts by simple adaptations of financial spread option formulas that do not fully account for the implications of the capacity limits and the network structure that distinguish these contracts. In contrast, we show that these operational features can be fully captured and integrated with financial considerations in a fairly easy and managerially significant manner by a model that combines linear programming and simulation. We derive pathwise estimators for the so called deltas and structurally characterize them. We interpret them in a novel fashion as discounted expectations, under a specific weighing distribution, of the amounts of natural gas to be procured/marketed when optimally using pipeline capacity. Based on the actual prices of traded natural gas futures and basis swaps, we show that an enhanced version of the common approach employed in practice can significantly underestimate the true value of natural gas pipeline network capacity. Our model also exhibits promising financial (delta) hedging performance. Thus, this model emerges as an easy to use and useful tool that natural gas shippers can employ to support their valuation and delta hedging decisions concerning natural gas pipeline network transport capacity contracts. Moreover, the insights that follow from our data analysis have broader significance and implications in terms of the management of real options beyond our specific application. Motivated by current developments

THE VALUATION OF INITIAL SHARE PRICE USING THE FREE CASH FLOW TO FIRM METHOD AND THE REAL OPTION METHOD IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adhy Listya Paramitha

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The purposes of this study were to determine fair share value, to analyze the factors that influence undervalue and overvalue, and to determine the best valuation method. This study made valuation using real options method and free cash flow to firm method. The results of partial logistic regression on Free Cash Flow to Firm showed that tenor variable and equity variable had positive and significant effects, while dummy variable had a negative and significant effect. In the real option model, tenor variable and implied volatility variable had positive and significant effects, while sheets of share variable had a negative and significant effect

The Virtual and the Real in Planning and Urban Design: Perspectives, Practices and Applications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yamu, Claudia; Poplin, Alenka; Devisch, Oswald; de Roo, Gert

2018-01-01

The Virtual and the Real: Perspectives, Practices and Applications for the Built Environment explores the merging relationship between physical and virtual spaces in planning and urban design. Technological advances such as smart sensors, interactive screens, locative media and evolving computation

An Application of the Real Options Method to the Valuation of a License to Operate 3G Mobile Phone Service in Brazil.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael Stille

2010-10-01

Full Text Available We analyze the contributions of the real option method to the decision making process in the telecommunications industry. We study the case of a public auction purchase of the license to operate a 3G mobile phone system in Brazil. The results indicate that the embedded flexibilities increase the value of the project by 64% in relative to the discounted cash flow method, which could justify the high premiums paid by the winning firms, which are incompatible with the value obtained from traditional methods of analysis. This suggests that the real options approach used, which can be easily replicated and is fairly intuitive, can be a useful tool to support the decision making process of these firms.

Evaluation of food waste disposal options by LCC analysis from the perspective of global warming: Jungnang case, South Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Mi-Hyung; Song, Yul-Eum; Song, Han-Byul; Kim, Jung-Wk; Hwang, Sun-Jin

2011-01-01

Highlights: → Various food waste disposal options were evaluated from the perspective of global warming. → Costs of the options were compared by the methodology of life cycle assessment and life cycle cost analysis. → Carbon price and valuable by-products were used for analyzing environmental credits. → The benefit-cost ratio of wet feeding scenario was the highest. - Abstract: The costs associated with eight food waste disposal options, dry feeding, wet feeding, composting, anaerobic digestion, co-digestion with sewage sludge, food waste disposer, incineration, and landfilling, were evaluated in the perspective of global warming and energy and/or resource recovery. An expanded system boundary was employed to compare by-products. Life cycle cost was analyzed through the entire disposal process, which included discharge, separate collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal stages, all of which were included in the system boundary. Costs and benefits were estimated by an avoided impact. Environmental benefits of each system per 1 tonne of food waste management were estimated using carbon prices resulting from CO 2 reduction by avoided impact, as well as the prices of by-products such as animal feed, compost, and electricity. We found that the cost of landfilling was the lowest, followed by co-digestion. The benefits of wet feeding systems were the highest and landfilling the lowest.

A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumbaroglu, Guerkan; Madlener, Reinhard; Demirel, Mustafa

2008-01-01

This study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis. The model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year-by-year basis, thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies. Price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices. Demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price-sensitive, as the electricity market deregulation proceeds, reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes (such as time-of-use pricing, unbundled electricity services, and choice of supplier). The empirical analysis is based on data for the Turkish electricity supply industry. Apart from general implications for policy-making, it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies

Option valuation for energy issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ostertag, K.; Llerena, P.; Richard, A.

2004-01-01

In many industrial and economic situations, decision processes, both individual and collective, have to simultaneously face uncertainty and irreversibility of some kind. This is particularly valid for energy choices if they are linked to technological alternatives. The purpose of this book is to highlight specific aspects of these situations. This is done from the particular perspective of option valuation. The contributions to this book grew out of an international workshop on ''Option valuation in energy and environmental issues'' held at the Fraunhofer ISI in February 2003. This workshop brought together reseachers from energy economics, but also researchers working on option valuation in other empirical fields or with a more theoretical perspective. This is reflected in the organisation of the book, which starts with some theory-oriented contributions and subsequently presents more applied contributions in the field of energy economics with an extension to water infrastructure in the annex. (orig.)

The Value of a Biotechnology Start-up: Creative Destruction and Real Options Approach The Value of a Biotechnology Start-up: Creative Destruction and Real Options Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cecilia Maya Ochoa

2006-12-01

Full Text Available The value of investments in high growth start-up firms is difficult to assess because payments are far in the future and their arrival is uncertain. Some of these firms may seem overvalued according to traditional methods, such as the Net Present Value, which fails to account for three drivers of value for highly innovative industries: intellectual capital as the engine of innovation, market power as the expectation of monopolistic power when innovating, and a growth option which may be exercised in the case of success.This paper presents a case study on a biotechnology start-up and applies the Creative Destruction – Real Options approach (CD-ROA (Maya, 2004 which takes into account all three drivers of value and is able to explain the high prices investors pay for shares of a company in this industry. It proves that such prices are not cases of overpricing but of recognition of the large growth potential of firms which are part of highly innovative industries.La valoración de la inversión en compañías nacientes de alto crecimiento no estarea fácil, pues los ingresos esperados se generan en un futuro lejano y bajo granincertidumbre. De acuerdo con métodos tradicionales de valoración como el ValorPresente Neto, el mercado parece sobrevalorar algunas de estas compañías. Ello sedebe a que estos métodos tradicionales no tienen en cuenta tres elementos esencialesque determinan el valor en estos casos: el capital intelectual como el motor de lainnovación, el poder de mercado por la expectativa de ingresos monopolísticos sise da la innovación y una opción real de crecimiento que puede ser ejercida en casode éxito.Este artículo aplica a una empresa de biotecnología el enfoque de opciones realesy destrucción creativa (Maya, 2004, el cual incluye estos tres determinantes delvalor y logra explicar el alto precio que los inversionistas pagan por una acción deeste tipo de empresas. Se demuestra que éste no es un caso de

Two years of real progress in European HEP networking: A CERN perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carpenter, B.E.; Fluckiger, F.; Gerard, J.M.; Lord, D.; Segal, B.

1987-01-01

The last two years have been marked by real progress in networking in HEP. Home-made developments, studies and plans have given way to the use of real networks involving hundreds of HEP and other computers and based on externally produced software and hardware. Within the last year, the first generation of industrial software products following some of the international standards for networking have become available. Related developments are taking place in networking for on-line systems and indeed the LEP experiments are distinguished by their heavy and crucial reliance on both local and wide-area networks. This paper describes the progress made at CERN since the last two years and looks at perspectives for the future. (orig.)

EFFECT OF REVENUE INSURANCE ON ENTRY AND EXIT DECISIONS IN TABLE GRAPE PRODUCTION: A REAL OPTION APPROACH

OpenAIRE

Seo, Sangtaek; Salin, Victoria; Mitchell, Paul D.; Leatham, David J.

2004-01-01

This study determines the entry and exit thresholds of table grape farming with irreversible investment under uncertainty. Real option approach is adopted to consider the investment and management flexibility. Also revenue insurance is introduced to consider the effect of the risk management programs on the entry and exit thresholds. Results show that revenue insurance increases the entry and exit thresholds by 1% and 4%, respectively, thus discouraging new investment and current farming, as ...

Efficient option valuation of single and double barrier options

Science.gov (United States)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Milev, Mariyan; Koleva-Petkova, Dessislava; Vladev, Veselin

2017-12-01

In this paper we present an implementation of pricing algorithm for single and double barrier options using Mellin transformation with Maximum Entropy Inversion and its suitability for real-world applications. A detailed analysis of the applied algorithm is accompanied by implementation in C++ that is then compared to existing solutions in terms of efficiency and computational power. We then compare the applied method with existing closed-form solutions and well known methods of pricing barrier options that are based on finite differences.

Economic Evaluation for Energy Business Using Real Options Pricing Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, W.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

2001-11-01

Recently, facing the new era of restructuring, privatization, and liberalization the energy industry in the world is changing rapidly, and thus the uncertain factors tend to increase. This would imply that energy-related business is now confronted with new market risks as well as the simple price risks. The traditional investment valuation method using the concept of net present value (NPV) or internal rate of revenue (IRR) might not incorporate the managerial alternatives which enable managers to respond flexibly to the changes in business environment. This study pointed out the problems of the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method when evaluating a certain capital investment in energy industry. As an alternative, the real option pricing method (ROPM) was proposed, which is widely adopted in the field of profit projection for the venture business. In addition, when applying to energy sector the feasibility of ROPM was discussed, and the frameworks and major results of previous related studies were described. For those using the ROPM in real business, I explained the detailed procedures and solutions of ROPM, and introduced the log-transformed binomial model which provides a more efficient solution. In order to verify the usefulness of the ROPM, this study performed an empirical analysis for a virtual construction and operation project of power plant. And, the results from the ROPM was compared to those from the traditional DCF method. Based on the empirical results, the values of various investment opportunities were shown to be high. Therefore, the project not justified in terms of traditional DCF would turn into the project with a positive gross project value, properly reflecting managerial flexibilities inherent in the original project. (author). 58 refs., 32 figs., 33 tabs.

Perspective on long-range nuclear energy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harms, W.O.

1977-01-01

The study group whose effort is presented here concluded that the United States urgently needs to have a breeder option available for possible deployment before the year 2000 primarily because of uncertainties in the availability of fossil fuels and uranium supplies. It was recommended that the U/Pu LMFBR program proceed as planned, including prompt construction of the CRBRP and its associated fuel cycle facilities. Alternative cycle studies should be pursued, but without significantly delaying the current program. There are technological choices which, in suitable political contexts, may somewhat reduce proliferation risks; of these, only those that employ breeders preserve the breeder option (and the nuclear option in the long term. These alternatives must be coupled with political agreements to have any significant effect on proliferation potential internationally. These same political agreements should suffice to control the U/Pu breeder cycle; there is only a difference in degree between the U/Pu and the denatured Th/U-233 cycles

Integrated Portfolio Analysis: Return on Investment and Real Options Analysis of Intelligence Information Systems (Cryptologic Carry On Program)

Science.gov (United States)

2006-09-30

14 IV. Proof-of-Concept: USS Readiness Case Study 16 A. Background 17 B. Applying KVA Methodology 19 C. KVA Results 20 D. Real Options Analysis 23...technology assets. • Quantifying intangible human capital assets (i.e., training, skills, knowledge). The average large company spends the equivalent of...Portfolios/Motorola, Unilever • IT Infrastructure/Credit Suisse • Electricity/Peaker-Plants • Acquisitions/Seagate • Contracts/Syngenta, GM Although

Developing a made-in-Canada climate change option

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lakeman, B.

2002-01-01

A federal paper on Kyoto options served as a basis for this presentation. The author outlines the Alberta perspective on the federal options paper: (1) Alberta is impacted inequitably under all scenarios, (2) incomplete analysis, (3) export of Canadian capital, (4) open-ended liability, and (5) options need to reflect principles developed by Premiers and conveyed to Prime Minister in February. The principles for climate change action are: shared understanding of range of real costs, informed consultation, avoid competitive disadvantage, collaboration at all levels of government, no unreasonable share of the burden, encourage the use of new technology, Canadians need to be part of climate change solution, and focus on energy conservation and efficiency. The Alberta plan of action calls for a longer time frame and consultation with Albertans. With the topic of greenhouse gases (GHG), government leadership is required in the following areas: mandatory GHG reporting program, facilitate and negotiate agreements with key sectors, develop approach to emissions trading, and continue to pursue reductions in government operations. Some of the key initiatives include technology and innovation through the Alberta Energy Research Institute (AERI), build critical mass through partnerships, focus on clean hydrocarbon development and the transition to the hydrogen economy, carbon dioxide capture and storage, aggressive energy conservation, agricultural and forestry sinks, and adaptation. The consultation strategy is described. figs

Flexibility valuation in the Brazilian power system: A real options approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marreco, Juliana de Moraes; Carpio, Lucio Guido Tapia

2006-01-01

This paper presents a valuation study of operational flexibility in the complex Brazilian Power System. Thermopower plants represent operational flexibility for the national system operator provided they can be dispatched in dry periods to supply part of the load when reservoir waters are too low. Deficit costs can be avoided as a result. We have adopted a real options approach to calculate the fair value of a financial subsidy to be paid to thermal generators for their availability to the system. A financial subsidy is mandatory for their economic feasibility and, therefore, for increased thermopower capacity in the Brazilian Power System. This is why this policy is currently being studied by Brazil's federal government. In order to illustrate our modeling we have run the model for the southeast subsystem. We found a flexibility value of US$4.52 billion, which represents US$497/MW per year. This means that a 100 MW thermopower plant should receive US$49,700 for each year of its economic lifetime as a fair premium incentive to investments

A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2004-07-01

The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

Investment analysis in hydraulic energy generation by using the real options theory; Analise de investimentos em geracao hidraulica utilizando a teoria de opcoes reais

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Noronha, J.C. Caminha; Lima, J.W. Marangon [Universidade Federal de Itajuba (UNIFEI), MG (Brazil)]. E-mails: juliaccn@unifei.edu.br; marangon@unifei.edu.br; Ferreira, T.G. Leite [Associacao Brasileira dos Investidores em Autoproducao de Energia Eletrica (ABIAPE), Brasilia, DF (Brazil)]. E-mail: tiago@abiape.com.br

2006-07-01

This paper presents a methodology of investment analysis in power plants using the Real Option Theory. Particularly, the investment opportunity of a hydro plant is valued based on the energy that will be traded at the new energy auction using the Brazilian Development Bank - BNDES financing program for the Generation of electric energy (new energy). Since this kind of project involves a multistage investment consisting of design, construction and operation phases, it can be treated as a sequential compound option. A binomial approach was elaborated to model this investment opportunity analysis. This approach models the uncertainties in setting up the cash flow for the investments and incorporates some possible managerial flexibility associated with the decision taken along the investment forecast. The proposed methodology will be described in parallel with an example of a real hydro-plant in which we incorporated the flexibilities regarding the decision to invest in each step of the project and an build phase abandon option, representing the transfer of concession rights after the auction. (author)

Optimal feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic power generation in China: A real options analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, M.M.; Zhou, D.Q.; Zhou, P.; Liu, G.Q.

2016-01-01

The feed-in tariff policy is widely used to promote the development of renewable energy. China also adopts feed-in tariff policy to attract greater investment in solar photovoltaic power generation. This study employs real options method to assess the optimal levels of feed-in tariffs in 30 provinces of China. The uncertainties in CO_2 price and investment cost are considered. A method that integrates the backward dynamic programming algorithm and Least-Squares Monte Carlo method is used to solve the model. The results demonstrate that the feed-in tariffs of 30 provinces range from 0.68 RMB/kWh to 1.71 RMB/kWh, and the average level is 1.01 RMB/kWh. On this basis, we find that the levels of sub-regional feed-in tariff announced in 2013 are no longer appropriate and should be adjusted as soon as possible. We have also identified the implications of technological progress and carbon emission trading schemes, as well as the importance of strengthening electricity transmission. It has been suggested that the Chinese government takes diverse measures, including increasing research and development investment, establishing and improving a nationwide carbon emission trading scheme and accelerating the construction of electricity-transmission infrastructure, to reduce the required feed-in tariff and promote the development of solar photovoltaic power generation. - Highlights: • We estimate the optimal levels of feed-in tariffs for 30 provinces in China by using real options method. • The uncertainties in CO_2 price and investment cost are considered. • The feed-in tariffs of 30 provinces range from 0.68 RMB/kWh to 1.71 RMB/kWh, and the average level is 1.01 RMB/kWh.

Capital renewal as a real option

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reindorp, M.J.; Fu, M.C.

2011-01-01

We consider the timing of replacement of obsolete subsystems within an extensive, complex infrastructure. Such replacement action, known as capital renewal, must balance uncertainty about future profitability against uncertainty about future renewal costs. Treating renewal investments as real

An ill-posed problem for the Black-Scholes equation for a profitable forecast of prices of stock options on real market data

Science.gov (United States)

Klibanov, Michael V.; Kuzhuget, Andrey V.; Golubnichiy, Kirill V.

2016-01-01

A new empirical mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock, new initial and new boundary conditions. Conventional notions of maturity time and strike prices are not used. The Black-Scholes equation is solved as a parabolic equation with the reversed time, which is an ill-posed problem. Thus, a regularization method is used to solve it. To verify the validity of our model, real market data for 368 randomly selected liquid options are used. A new trading strategy is proposed. Our results indicates that our method is profitable on those options. Furthermore, it is shown that the performance of two simple extrapolation-based techniques is much worse. We conjecture that our method might lead to significant profits of those financial insitutions which trade large amounts of options. We caution, however, that further studies are necessary to verify this conjecture.

Capacity payment impact on gas-fired generation investments under rising renewable feed-in — A real options analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hach, Daniel; Spinler, Stefan

2016-01-01

We assess the effect of capacity payments on investments in gas-fired power plants in the presence of different degrees of renewable energy technology (RET) penetration. Low variable cost renewables increasingly make investments in gas-fired generation unprofitable. At the same time, growing feed-in from intermittent RETs amplifies fluctuations in power generation, thus entailing the need for flexible buffer capacity—currently mostly gas-fired power plants. A real options approach is applied to evaluate investment decisions and timing of a single investor in gas-fired power generation. We investigate the necessity and effectiveness of capacity payments. Our model incorporates multiple uncertainties and assesses the effect of capacity payments under different degrees of RET penetration. In a numerical study, we implement stochastic processes for peak-load electricity prices and natural gas prices. We find that capacity payments are an effective measure to promote new gas-fired generation projects. Especially in times of high renewable feed-in, capacity payments are required to incentivize peak-load investments. - Highlights: • We assess capacity payments under the specific focus of the influence of different degrees of renewable feed-in. • We use a real options approach to analyze investment decision and timing. • Our model reflects stochastic gas prices and stochastic electricity prices. • The case study shows the value of capacity payments to investors especially under high renewable feed-in.

A real option-based model to valuate CDM projects under uncertain energy policies for emission trading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Taeil; Kim, Changyoon; Kim, Hyoungkwan

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A real option-based model for the valuation of CDM projects is proposed. • This study investigates the impact of energy policies on the value of CDM projects. • Level of target emission and its schedule should be carefully designed. • Government subsidy facilitates the implementation of CDM projects. • Period for free emission allowance prevents promoting CDM projects. - Abstract: Emission trading has been considered a primary policy tool for emission reduction. Governments establish national targets for emission reduction and assign emission reduction goals to private entities to accomplish the targets. To attain the goal, private entities should perform offset projects that can produce emission credits or buy emission credits from the market. However, it is not easy for private entities to decide to implement the projects because energy policies associated with emission trading keep changing; thus, the future benefits of the offset projects are quite uncertain. This study presents a real option-based model to investigate how uncertain energy policies affect the financial viability of an offset project. A case study showed that the establishment of a target emission was attractive to the government because it could make the CDM project financially viable with a small amount of government subsidy. In addition, the level of the government subsidy could determine the investment timing for the CDM project. In this context, governments should be cautious in designing energy policies, because even the same energy policies could have different impacts on private entities. Overall, this study is expected to assist private entities in establishing proper investment strategies for CDM projects under uncertain energy policies

Long expansion planning of electrical power availability in Brazil under the real options theoretical approach; Planejamento de longo prazo da expansao da oferta de energia eletrica no Brasil sob uma perspectiva da teoria das opcoes reais

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marreco, Juliana de Moraes

2007-05-15

This thesis considers uncertainty on the long term generation expansion planning in the Brazilian Electric System, under a Real Options Approach . First, Real Options Theory is used to demonstrate the importance of thermo power plants insertion in Brazil, through a flexibility valuation on hydrothermal system. This is the first objective of this thesis. In the second part a Real Options Model is proposed to support long term expansion studies, based in a levelized costs analysis. The adequacy of proposed models to real problem is illustrated by a case study of the Brazilian Power System. The results show the importance of the energetic matrix diversification on the Long Term Planning. In the expansion model proposed, results are in favor of higher participation of biomass, nuclear power and coal in Brazilian electricity generation matrix. (author)

Biomass Power Generation Investment in China: A Real Options Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingming Zhang

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a real options model for evaluating the biomass power generation investment in China. The uncertainties in the market price of electricity, CO2 price and straw price are considered. Meanwhile the dynamic relationship between installed capacity and fuel cost, as well as the long-term reduction of subsidy are described. Two scenarios, i.e., with the carbon emission trading scheme existent and non-existent, respectively, is built to empirically analyze the investment of a 25-MW straw-based power generation project. The results show that investors should undertake the investment in 2030 under two scenarios. Investment values are 14,869,254.8 and 37,608,727 Chinese Yuan (RMB, respectively. The implementation of the carbon emission trading scheme theoretically helps improve investment value and advance the most likely optimal investment time. However, the current CO2 price is not sufficient to advance the most likely optimal investment time. The impacts of several factors, including subsidy policy, CO2 price, straw price, installed capacity, correlation structure and the validity period of investment, on the optimal investment strategy are also examined. It is suggested that governments take some measures, including increasing subsidy, setting the growth pattern of subsidy and establishing and perfecting a nationwide carbon trading market, to improve the investment environment and attract more investments.

FTR-option formulation and pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parmeshwaran, Vijay; Muthuraman, Kumar

2009-01-01

Recent changes in electricity markets have advocated the use of Local Marginal Prices (LMP) for congestion management and pricing. From the perspective of market participants, the LMPs pose a risk since they are not known before a transaction on the grid is made. Financial transmission rights (FTR) are instruments that help market participants hedge this risk and are issuable in two flavors - obligations and options. While pricing obligations are much easier, pricing FTR options pose a significant challenge. In this paper we develop a computational method for pricing FTR options. We also discuss the problem of designing financial instrument sets that assure revenue adequacy for the issuer. We point out the difficulty in assuring revenue adequacy when FTR options are present and propose a scheme for overcoming the difficulty. The proposed pricing method can be used to compute prices of options and obligations in the primary market or as a reliable pricing tool to compute option prices in the secondary market. Finally using a test network we present and discuss numerical results. (author)

Irregular grid methods for pricing high-dimensional American options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berridge, S.J.

2004-01-01

This thesis proposes and studies numerical methods for pricing high-dimensional American options; important examples being basket options, Bermudan swaptions and real options. Four new methods are presented and analysed, both in terms of their application to various test problems, and in terms of

Real Islamic Logic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bergstra, J.A.

2011-01-01

Four options for assigning a meaning to Islamic Logic are surveyed including a new proposal for an option named "Real Islamic Logic" (RIL). That approach to Islamic Logic should serve modern Islamic objectives in a way comparable to the functionality of Islamic Finance. The prospective role of RIL

Pricing and Applications of Digital Installment Options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pierangelo Ciurlia

2012-01-01

Full Text Available For its theoretical interest and strong impact on financial markets, option valuation is considered one of the cornerstones of contemporary mathematical finance. This paper specifically studies the valuation of exotic options with digital payoff and flexible payment plan. By means of the Incomplete Fourier Transform, the pricing problem is solved in order to find integral representations of the upfront price for European call and put options. Several applications in the areas of corporate finance, insurance, and real options are discussed. Finally, a new type of digital derivative named supercash option is introduced and some payment schemes are also presented.

Fuzzy Optimization of Option Pricing Model and Its Application in Land Expropriation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aimin Heng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Option pricing is irreversible, fuzzy, and flexible. The fuzzy measure which is used for real option pricing is a useful supplement to the traditional real option pricing method. Based on the review of the concepts of the mean and variance of trapezoidal fuzzy number and the combination with the Carlsson-Fuller model, the trapezoidal fuzzy variable can be used to represent the current price of land expropriation and the sale price of land on the option day. Fuzzy Black-Scholes option pricing model can be constructed under fuzzy environment and problems also can be solved and discussed through numerical examples.

Application of the modified Tobin's q to an uncertain energy-saving project with the real options concept

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Tyrone T.; Huang, Shio-Ling

2011-01-01

This paper is to develop a modified Tobin's q evaluation method which successfully combines the evaluation criteria of the traditional Tobin's q and the real options. This study provides flexible thinking for decision making criteria. That is, it clearly provides decision-makers with a reference in choosing enter or exit strategies, such as quantitative indicators references. The proposed model introduces two variables stochastic process in continuous time and explores the impact of the occurrence of unexpected events on the project value, so that, it can more authentically response to the project value. The studied issue deals with the firms that have not established energy-saving equipment yet. It attempts to figure out the optimal timing to adopt an energy-saving investment project when it is beneficial and the optimal timing to terminate it when the continuous operation of that business is unprofitable. The future discounted benefit-cost ratio, Q, follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. Except for the evaluation of energy-saving equipment investment project, the proposed model can be applied to other related project evaluation issues, such as energy-saving, CO 2 emission reduction, or general investment projects. - Research highlights: → Develops an approach which combines the traditional Tobin's q and the real options. → Applies to general energy-saving project or other investment projects. → Can more authentically response to the project value with strategic entry and exit. → Provides flexible thinking for decision making criteria via modified Tobin's q model. → Reduces the model complexity and increases the flexibility in practice application.

Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Locatelli, G. [Univ. of Lincoln, Lincoln School of Engineering, Brayford Pool, Lincoln LN6 7TS (United Kingdom); Mancini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milano (Italy); Ruiz, F.; Solana, P. [Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Dep. de Ingenieria de Organizacion, Administracion de Empresas y Estadistica, C/ Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2, 28006-Madrid (Spain)

2012-07-01

According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real option theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)

Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.; Ruiz, F.; Solana, P.

2012-01-01

According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real option theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)

Estimating spillover benefits of large R and D projects: Application of real options modelling approach to the case of thermonuclear fusion R and D programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bednyagin, Denis; Gnansounou, Edgard

2012-01-01

This paper is focused on the analysis of spillover benefits of the ongoing R and D programme on thermonuclear fusion technology. The spillover effects are understood here as positive externalities of publicly funded R and D, demonstration and deployment (RDDD) activities that may be revealed at the companies' level in the form of newly created knowledge stock; development of innovative products/processes with broader market applications; strengthening of R and D, manufacturing and marketing capabilities; etc. An integrated compound real options model is proposed that allows to estimate the strategic net social present value of fusion RDDD programme taking into account the different types of spillover benefits along with the hidden real options value arising due to uncertainty and managerial flexibility. It was found that the value of spillover effects, modelled as “expansion option”, could represent a significant proportion of the overall socio-economic value of fusion RDDD programme (nearly 20%). This paper clearly demonstrates that, besides a high-level mission to assure sustainable energy supply, fusion RDDD programme may yield substantial net socio-economic benefits that may be at least two times higher compared to the expected RD and D costs, and hence the pursuit of even more ambitious programme is economically justified. - Highlights: ► Evaluate the strategic net social present value of fusion RDDD programme. ► Consider different types of spillover effects. ► Economic value of spillovers is estimated with a compound real options model. ► Spillover benefits could represent up to 20% of the value of fusion RDDD programme.

A technique for choosing an option for SDH network upgrade

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. A. Bulanov

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Rapidly developing data transmission technologies result in making the network equipment modernization inevitable. There are various options to upgrade the SDH networks, for example, by increasing the capacity of network overloaded sites, the entire network capacity by replacement of the equipment or by creation of a parallel network, by changing the network structure with the organization of multilevel hierarchy of a network, etc. All options vary in a diversity of parameters starting with the solution cost and ending with the labor intensiveness of their realization. Thus, there are no certain standard approaches to the rules to choose an option for the network development. The article offers the technique for choosing the SHD network upgrade based on method of expert evaluations using as a tool the software complex that allows us to have quickly the quantitative characteristics of proposed network option. The technique is as follows:1. Forming a perspective matrix of services inclination to the SDH networks.2. Developing the several possible options for a network modernization.3. Formation of the list of criteria and a definition of indicators to characterize them by two groups, namely costs of the option implementation and arising losses; positive effect from the option introduction.4. Criteria weight coefficients purpose.5. Indicators value assessment within each criterion for each option by each expert. Rationing of the obtained values of indicators in relation to the maximum value of an indicator among all options.6. Calculating the integrated indicators of for each option by criteria groups.7. Creating a set of Pareto by drawing two criteria groups of points, which correspond to all options in the system of coordinates on the plane. Option choice.In implementation of point 2 the indicators derivation owing to software complex plays a key role. This complex should produce a structure of the network equipment, types of multiplexer sections

Enfoque de opciones reales para la valoración financiera de marcas Real Options Approach to Financial Valuation of Brands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yessica González Londoño

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Los activos intangibles, especialmente las marcas, son parte fundamental del valor de mercado de las compañías, pues representan su ventaja competitiva; sin embargo, la Contabilidad y las Finanzas se enfrentan ante un reto difícil al momento de valorarlos. Los métodos de medición de intangibles en la literatura revisada se caracterizan por ser limitados y subjetivos, e incluso presentan algunos errores conceptuales, encontrándose su utilidad principal en el campo de la gestión. Este artículo propone una metodología para la valoración financiera de marcas a partir de una extensión de la aplicación de opciones reales compuestas de las patentes, aprovechando las similitudes en su construcción. Su aplicación se ilustra mediante la valoración de la marca de una compañía aseguradora.Intangible assets are an important component of the market value of a company, particularly in brands which represent the competitive advantage of the company; however, both Accounting and Finance face a great challenge when trying to value them. The methods which have been proposed by the literature appear to be subjective, limited, and based on some theoretical errors. Their use is mainly circumscribed to the management of intangibles. This paper proposes a methodology for the financial valuation of brands based on the application of a compound real option model to a patent valuation, acknowledging the similarities in their construction. Later, an application to an insurance company is presented.

Real option valuation of free destination in long-term liquefied natural gas supplies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yepes Rodriguez, Ramon

2008-01-01

This paper presents a real option model for the valuation of destination flexibility in long-term LNG supplies. Stochastic price dynamics in the different markets is modelled through geometric Brownian motion processes. Mean reversion is considered as well as correlation between markets, but instead of the usual correlation in return shocks, a price convergence term is introduced representing the arbitrage streams between markets. Model parameters are estimated from market data on LNG prices by maximum log-likelihood. The goodness of the fit for the proposed model is tested as well as for two alternative models. Confidence intervals for the parameters are given. Results for the model are calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. Frequency distributions for the main results are plotted. The effect of the main parameters of the model is studied (i.e. price volatilities, price convergence, initial prices in the markets, mean reversion, extra transportation costs, number of alternative markets). The value of destination flexibility is found to be an important share of the value of LNG

Estimating the influence of U.S. ethanol policy on plant investment decisions: A real options analysis with two stochastic variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmit, T.M.; Luo, J.; Conrad, J.M.

2011-01-01

U.S. ethanol policies have contributed to changes in the levels and the volatilities of revenues and costs facing ethanol firms. The implications of these policies for optimal investment behavior are investigated through an extension of the real options framework that allows for the consideration of volatility in both revenue and cost components, as well as the correlation between them. The effects of policy affecting plant revenues dominate the effects of those policies affecting production costs. In the absence of these policies, much of the recent expansionary periods would have not existed and market conditions in the late-1990s would have led to some plant closures. We also show that, regardless of plant size, U.S. ethanol policy has narrowed the distance between the optimal entry and exit curves, implying a more narrow range of inactivity and indicative of a more volatile evolution for the industry than would have existed otherwise. - Highlights: ► An extended real options framework with two stochastic variables is developed. ► Ethanol expansion largely induced by the revenue-enhancing effects of policy. ► Removing effects of policy changes optimal entry/exit environment considerably. ► To expand US ethanol industry, size of policy contributions needs to grow. ► US ethanol policy has fostered more volatile industry development.

SMR and economics competitiveness in small grids. A real option analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Locatelli, Giorgio [University of Lincoln - School of Engineering, Lincoln (United Kingdom). Faculty of Science; Mancino, Mauro; Lotti, Giovanni [Politecnico di Milano (Italy). Dept. of Management Economics and Industrial Engineering

2014-03-15

The optimal investment in power plants depends on many uncertain parameters (price of electricity, construction costs, cost of emissions, fuel cost..). Traditional approaches based on the Discounted Cash Flows methodologies, like the Net Present Value (NPV), do not properly take into account these uncertainties since they depend on the implicit assumption that all the decisions regarding the investment are evaluated in a specific moment (the time now) and cannot be postponed, waiting to acquire more information. An evolution of these methods is the Real Options Analysis (ROA) that considers a further value into the evaluation: the value of flexibility to choose when to invest. In this paper the ROA will be used to test a hypothesis made in literature, that small-medium sized plants (300-400 MWe) can be a suitable choice for small grids (or markets), thanks to their flexibility in the deployment. The assessment of this hypothesis is based on a ROA model that compares the investment in a Large Reactor (LR) vs. a group of Small Modular Reactors (SMR). Montecarlo simulations are used to approximate the probability distributions of the profitability indicators, both with a static approach, implying that investments are made immediately, and with a dynamic approach, letting the model decide when to invest (optimizing the profitability distribution). The result show as SMR, in small grid, can yield similar profitability in lower risky conditions. (orig.)

SMR and economics competitiveness in small grids. A real option analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Locatelli, Giorgio; Mancino, Mauro; Lotti, Giovanni

2014-01-01

The optimal investment in power plants depends on many uncertain parameters (price of electricity, construction costs, cost of emissions, fuel cost..). Traditional approaches based on the Discounted Cash Flows methodologies, like the Net Present Value (NPV), do not properly take into account these uncertainties since they depend on the implicit assumption that all the decisions regarding the investment are evaluated in a specific moment (the time now) and cannot be postponed, waiting to acquire more information. An evolution of these methods is the Real Options Analysis (ROA) that considers a further value into the evaluation: the value of flexibility to choose when to invest. In this paper the ROA will be used to test a hypothesis made in literature, that small-medium sized plants (300-400 MWe) can be a suitable choice for small grids (or markets), thanks to their flexibility in the deployment. The assessment of this hypothesis is based on a ROA model that compares the investment in a Large Reactor (LR) vs. a group of Small Modular Reactors (SMR). Montecarlo simulations are used to approximate the probability distributions of the profitability indicators, both with a static approach, implying that investments are made immediately, and with a dynamic approach, letting the model decide when to invest (optimizing the profitability distribution). The result show as SMR, in small grid, can yield similar profitability in lower risky conditions. (orig.)

Proceedings of the Management options information seminar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

This seminar was held in order to provide an opportunity to participants to broaden their knowledge concerning the numerous management options that are available when dealing with emissions generated by the electric power sector. It also represented an opportunity to gather information with regard to a host of different options to support the Electricity Project Team. The presentations centred on topics such as assessment, design and development of management options for the emissions of the electric power industry in Alberta. The legal, economic, social and environmental aspects were considered by the speakers for the options, and the perspectives included experience gained from hands on projects and initiatives. The reasons underlying the selection of options were revealed and lessons learned examined. Of the 14 presentations and the closing remarks speech, two presentations were included in this database. refs., tabs., figs

Evaluating cash benefits as real options for a commodity producer in an emerging market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube

2009-07-01

Full Text Available The amount of cash a firm should maintain is an old problem tackled by finance literature. The recent advances in finance, mainly in the derivatives area, has opened the opportunity to revisit this subject. Cossin and Hricko (2004 studied the benefits of cash holdings using the Real Options approach. We follow their ideas extending the problem to a specific commodity producer firm in an emerging economy. We evaluate the benefits considering that raising capital takes time (timing benefit and also the benefit of avoiding the issue of securities at unfavorable moments (underpricing benefit. We use numerical procedures to solve the problem. Despite the fact that the results are not totally intuitive, we verify that the timing benefit is much more relevant than that of avoiding the underpricing benefit and that firms in emerging economies have greater advantage holding cash than those in developed economies. There is empirical evidence of this last result in the literature.

Buridan's Ass and a Menu of Options.

OpenAIRE

Svetlana Boyarchenko

2005-01-01

The goal of the paper is to study how a menu of options affects decisions of a rational agent facing uncertainty over future payoff streams. Using the real options approach, we demonstrate that multiple options not only increase the barrier which the underlying stochastic variable has to reach in order investment became optimal, but cause the investor to be inactive even when the cost of investment is vanishing. As a technical contribution, the paper suggests a robust method of solution of a ...

Using expanded real options analysis to evaluate capacity expansion decisions under uncertainty in the construction material industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Momani, Amer Mohammad

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Capacity expansion generally requires large capital expenditure on illiquid assets. Therefore, decisions to enlarge capacity must support the organisation’s strategic objectives and provide valuable input for the budgeting process. This paper applies an expanded form of Real Options Analysis (ROA to generate and evaluate capacity expansion strategies under uncertainty in the construction material industry. ROA is applied to different expansion strategies associated with different demand scenarios. Evaluating a wider variety of strategies can reduce risk and sponsor decisions that maximise the firm’s value. The case study shows that the execution of a lead expansion strategy with 10-year intervals under a 50 per cent demand satisfaction scenario produces superior results.

Hydrogen storage for wind parks: A real options evaluation for an optimal investment in more flexibility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroniger, Daniel; Madlener, Reinhard

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Economic analysis of investing in H 2 storage for excess wind power production. • Use of real options analysis to account for uncertainty and managerial flexibility. • Hourly profits are simulated for profit-maximizing operation of the storage device. • Revenues by load factor increase, offering minute reserve, temporal arbitrage, H 2 sale. • Power-to-power is unprofitable under current techno-political conditions in Germany. - Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the economic viability of hydrogen storage for excess electricity produced in wind power plants. For the analysis, we define two scenarios (50 MW system with and without re-electrification unit) and apply Monte Carlo simulation and real options analysis (ROA) to compute hourly profits under uncertainty regarding wind speed, spot market electricity prices, and call of minute reserve capacity. Hydrogen as a storage medium helps to either (1) increase capacity utilization of the wind park in case of grid disconnection; (2) to offer minute reserve; or (3) to exploit temporal price arbitrage at the electricity spot market; additionally, hydrogen can also be directly sold as a commodity. We find that power-to-power operation is highly uneconomical under current framework conditions in Germany, irrespective of potential energy efficiency gains. Interestingly, due to counterbalancing effects, offshore wind parks are found to have only a modest economic advantage compared to onshore ones. The power-to-fuel plant can be operated profitably (at hydrogen prices of more than 0.36 € m −3 and a 100% utilization of the electrolyzer) if hydrogen is directly marketed instead of used to store and re-generate electrical energy. The ROA recommends investment in a storage device without re-electrification unit beyond an expected project value that is about twice the investment cost of the storage device, a figure which is reduced markedly as conversion efficiency rises, assuming technical change

User's perspective on fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ashworth, C.P.

1976-01-01

The need in fusion, from the electric utilities viewpoint, is for fusion to be a real option, not huge, complicated nuclear plants costing $10 billion each and requiring restructuring the energy industry to provide and use them. A course for future fusion reactor work in order to be a real option is discussed. The advantages of alternate concepts to the tokamak are presented

A Real Options Method for Estimating the Adoption Potential of Forestry and Agroforestry Systems on Private Lands in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Gregory E. Frey; D. Evan Mercer; Frederick W. Cubbage; Robert C. Abt

2010-01-01

The Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (LMAV), once was the largest forested bottom-land area in the continental United States, but has undergone widespread loss of forest through conversion to farmland. Restoration of forest functions and values has been a key conservation goal in the LMAV since the 1970s. This study utilizes a partial differential real options...

Designing Pareto-superior demand-response rate options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horowitz, I.; Woo, C.K.

2006-01-01

We explore three voluntary service options-real-time pricing, time-of-use pricing, and curtailable/interruptible service-that a local distribution company might offer its customers in order to encourage them to alter their electricity usage in response to changes in the electricity-spot-market price. These options are simple and practical, and make minimal information demands. We show that each of the options is Pareto-superior ex ante, in that it benefits both the participants and the company offering it, while not affecting the non-participants. The options are shown to be Pareto-superior ex post as well, except under certain exceptional circumstances. (author)

The pitfalls of capital budgeting : when costs correlate to oil price. Is the real-options approach superior to traditional valuation?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schiozer, R.F. [Getulio Vargas Foundation, Sao Paolo (Brazil). School of Administration de Empresas; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B. [Unicamp, Campinas (Brazil). Center of Petroleum Studies

2007-07-01

Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.

The pitfalls of capital budgeting : when costs correlate to oil price. Is the real-options approach superior to traditional valuation?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schiozer, R.F.; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B.

2007-01-01

Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

Studying Real-World Perceptual Expertise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianhong eShen

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Significant insights into visual cognition have come from studying real-world perceptual expertise. Many have previously reviewed empirical findings and theoretical developments from this work. Here we instead provide a brief perspective on approaches, considerations, and challenges to studying real-world perceptual expertise. We discuss factors like choosing to use real-world versus artificial object domains of expertise, selecting a target domain of real-world perceptual expertise, recruiting experts, evaluating their level of expertise, and experimentally testing experts in the lab and online. Throughout our perspective, we highlight expert birding (also called birdwatching as an example, as it has been used as a target domain for over two decades in the perceptual expertise literature.

Option pricing: a flexible tool to disseminate shared savings contracts.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedberg, Mark W; Buendia, Anthony M; Lauderdale, Katherine E; Hussey, Peter S

2013-08-01

Due to volatility in healthcare costs, shared savings contracts can create systematic financial losses for payers, especially when contracting with smaller providers. To improve the business case for shared savings, we calculated the prices of financial options that payers can "sell" to providers to offset these losses. Using 2009 to 2010 member-level total cost of care data from a large commercial health plan, we calculated option prices by applying a bootstrap simulation procedure. We repeated these simulations for providers of sizes ranging from 500 to 60,000 patients and for shared savings contracts with and without key design features (minimum savings thresholds,bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk) and under assumptions of zero, 1%, and 2% real cost reductions due to the shared savings contracts. Assuming no real cost reduction and a 50% shared savings rate, per patient option prices ranged from $225 (3.1% of overall costs) for 500-patient providers to $23 (0.3%) for 60,000-patient providers. Introducing minimum savings thresholds, bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk reduced these option prices. Option prices were highly sensitive to the magnitude of real cost reductions. If shared savings contracts cause 2% reductions in total costs, option prices fall to zero for all but the smallest providers. Calculating the prices of financial options that protect payers and providers from downside risk can inject flexibility into shared savings contracts, extend such contracts to smaller providers, and clarify the tradeoffs between different contract designs, potentially speeding the dissemination of shared savings.

Reproductive rights and options available to women infected with HIV in Ghana: perspectives of service providers from three Ghanaian health facilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Laar, Amos Kankponang

2013-03-15

Owing to improved management of HIV and its associated opportunistic infections, many HIV-positive persons of reproductive age are choosing to exercise their right of parenthood. This study explored the knowledge of health workers from two Ghanaian districts on the reproductive rights and options available to HIV-positive women who wish to conceive. Facility-based cross-sectional in design, the study involved the entire population of nurse counselors (32) and medical officers (3) who provide counseling and testing services to clients infected with HIV. Both structured and in-depth interviews were conducted after informed consent. Two main perspectives were revealed. There was an overwhelmingly high level of approbation by the providers on HIV-positive women's right to reproduction (94.3%). At the same time, the providers demonstrated a lack of knowledge regarding the various reproductive options available to women infected with HIV. Site of facility, and being younger were associated with practices that violated client's right to contraceptive counseling (p women on the various reproductive options. Taken together, these findings suggest that many HIV-positive clients do not receive comprehensive information about their reproductive options. These findings highlight some of the problems that service providers face as HIV counselors. Both service providers and policy makers need to recognize these realities and incorporate reproductive health issues of HIV-persons into the existing guidelines.

American options under stochastic volatility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chockalingam, A.; Muthuraman, K.

2011-01-01

The problem of pricing an American option written on an underlying asset with constant price volatility has been studied extensively in literature. Real-world data, however, demonstrate that volatility is not constant, and stochastic volatility models are used to account for dynamic volatility

Age Differences in Consumer Decision Making under Option Framing: From the Motivation Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huamao Peng

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Option framing effect is the phenomena that participants often accept more options when they are asked to delete undesired options from a full model (subtractive framing than they do when they are instructed to add desired options to a base model (additive framing. Whether the same effect exists in different age groups is less well known. To explore the roles of age and purchase motivations on the option framing effect for automobiles purchases, this study adopted a 3(age group: younger, middle-aged, vs. older ×2(option framing: additive vs. subtractive ×2(focus condition: information vs. emotion mixed design. To manipulate purchase motivations, participants in the three age groups were instructed to focus on the ratio of utility and price of options (information-focus or the extent of pleasure induced by the options (emotion-focus when they made purchase decisions in two framing conditions. The results revealed similar option framing effect across all age groups in the information-focus condition regarding the total price paid for accepted options. In contrast, the framing effect was not found in the emotion-focus condition. In addition, older adults accepted more options and an overall higher price than younger and middle-aged adults in both focus conditions. This difference was more obvious in the emotion-focus condition than in the information-focus condition. Moreover, both the number of accepted options and the total accepted price of the younger group in the information-focus condition were higher than those in the emotion-focus condition, whereas the older and middle-aged groups accepted same number of options and price between two focus conditions. These results imply that purchase motivation is a moderator of the option framing effect and age characteristics linked with motivations must be considered in sales.

Age Differences in Consumer Decision Making under Option Framing: From the Motivation Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Huamao; Xia, Shiyong; Ruan, Fanglin; Pu, Bingyan

2016-01-01

Option framing effect is the phenomena that participants often accept more options when they are asked to delete undesired options from a full model (subtractive framing) than they do when they are instructed to add desired options to a base model (additive framing). Whether the same effect exists in different age groups is less well known. To explore the roles of age and purchase motivations on the option framing effect for automobiles purchases, this study adopted a 3 (age group: younger, middle-aged, vs. older) × 2 (option framing: additive vs. subtractive) × 2 (focus condition: information vs. emotion) mixed design. To manipulate purchase motivations, participants in the three age groups were instructed to focus on the ratio of utility and price of options (information-focus) or the extent of pleasure induced by the options (emotion-focus) when they made purchase decisions in two framing conditions. The results revealed similar option framing effect across all age groups in the information-focus condition regarding the total price paid for accepted options. In contrast, the framing effect was not found in the emotion-focus condition. In addition, older adults accepted more options and an overall higher price than younger and middle-aged adults in both focus conditions. This difference was more obvious in the emotion-focus condition than in the information-focus condition. Moreover, both the number of accepted options and the total accepted price of the younger group in the information-focus condition were higher than those in the emotion-focus condition, whereas the older and middle-aged groups accepted same number of options and price between two focus conditions. These results imply that purchase motivation is a moderator of the option framing effect and age characteristics linked with motivations must be considered in sales.

A CDO option market model on standardized CDS index tranches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dorn, Jochen

We provide a market model which implies a dynamic for standardized CDS index tranche spreads. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling emerging options on struc- tured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market...... in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the e ects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options...

Nonlinear Schrödinger approach to European option pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Wróblewski, Marcin

2017-05-01

This paper deals with numerical option pricing methods based on a Schrödinger model rather than the Black-Scholes model. Nonlinear Schrödinger boundary value problems seem to be alternatives to linear models which better reflect the complexity and behavior of real markets. Therefore, based on the nonlinear Schrödinger option pricing model proposed in the literature, in this paper a model augmented by external atomic potentials is proposed and numerically tested. In terms of statistical physics the developed model describes the option in analogy to a pair of two identical quantum particles occupying the same state. The proposed model is used to price European call options on a stock index. the model is calibrated using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm based on market data. A Runge-Kutta method is used to solve the discretized boundary value problem numerically. Numerical results are provided and discussed. It seems that our proposal more accurately models phenomena observed in the real market than do linear models.

An entry and exit model on the energy-saving investment strategy with real options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Tyrone T.; Huang, S.-L.

2010-01-01

This paper presents an improved decision model based on the real options approach presented by for the firms that have not yet established energy-saving equipment under the entry and exit strategies. Furthermore, the proposed model takes account of the inevitable equipment renewal and the occurrence of unexpected events under the Poisson jump process. The timing for terminating an investment when continuous operations of that business are unprofitable is also explored to realize the optimal timing of implementing the energy-saving strategy. The future discounted benefit B follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. A numerical analysis is followed by a sensitivity study of various parameters to better realize their impacts on the entry and exit thresholds. The results show that for the jump case, the higher probability of occurrence of unfavorable events will result in a higher entry threshold and lower exit threshold. Investors are forced to request higher benefit thresholds to cover the higher probability of losses brought by unfavorable events.

Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Kind, Jarl M.; Baayen, Jorn H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter

2018-04-01

Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility.

Continuous Decision Support

Science.gov (United States)

2015-12-24

typically either a corporate finance perspective such as net present value, an operations research perspective that treats the issue as a knapsack...117 6.6 +Resources Reactive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 6.7 ++Resources Reactive with Pearson -Tukey...applying financial methods deals with a class of techniques known as real options methods. [11, 80] In a real options framework, “any corporate decision

Age Differences in Consumer Decision Making under Option Framing: From the Motivation Perspective

OpenAIRE

Peng, Huamao; Xia, Shiyong; Ruan, Fanglin; Pu, Bingyan

2016-01-01

Option framing effect is the phenomena that participants often accept more options when they are asked to delete undesired options from a full model (subtractive framing) than they do when they are instructed to add desired options to a base model (additive framing). Whether the same effect exists in different age groups is less well known. To explore the roles of age and purchase motivations on the option framing effect for automobiles purchases, this study adopted a 3 (age group: younger, m...

Water resources planning under climate change: Assessing the robustness of real options for the Blue Nile

Science.gov (United States)

Jeuland, Marc; Whittington, Dale

2014-03-01

This article presents a methodology for planning new water resources infrastructure investments and operating strategies in a world of climate change uncertainty. It combines a real options (e.g., options to defer, expand, contract, abandon, switch use, or otherwise alter a capital investment) approach with principles drawn from robust decision-making (RDM). RDM comprises a class of methods that are used to identify investment strategies that perform relatively well, compared to the alternatives, across a wide range of plausible future scenarios. Our proposed framework relies on a simulation model that includes linkages between climate change and system hydrology, combined with sensitivity analyses that explore how economic outcomes of investments in new dams vary with forecasts of changing runoff and other uncertainties. To demonstrate the framework, we consider the case of new multipurpose dams along the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. We model flexibility in design and operating decisions—the selection, sizing, and sequencing of new dams, and reservoir operating rules. Results show that there is no single investment plan that performs best across a range of plausible future runoff conditions. The decision-analytic framework is then used to identify dam configurations that are both robust to poor outcomes and sufficiently flexible to capture high upside benefits if favorable future climate and hydrological conditions should arise. The approach could be extended to explore design and operating features of development and adaptation projects other than dams.

Innovation and risk-averse firms: Options on carbon allowances as a hedging tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szolgayová, Jana; Golub, Alexander; Fuss, Sabine

2014-01-01

In a regulated world where government seeks to decarbonize the energy sector, firms face both indirect and direct costs of emitting CO 2 . This study seeks to take the perspective of the firm, which needs to maximize profits implying minimization of (carbon) cost as well. In this study, the firm can compose the cost-optimal portfolio of (a) investing into carbon-saving technology, which is currently expensive, (b) investing into carbon-saving technology R and D and adopt this technology at a later point, (c) buying allowances per ton of emitted CO 2 in a carbon market (alternatively this could be formulated as a tax), and (d) buying offsets traded in the same market, which are based on reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+). Uncertainties in the cost of carbon coming from a lack of commitment in policy-making leading to fluctuations in markets and uncertainty in the payoff of R and D activities could provide disincentives to incur large up-front sunk cost and raise the economic value of being flexible. We apply a real options approach with stochastic carbon-saving technology costs and stochastic CO 2 costs. Assuming that firms are risk-averse, they will not only value flexibility, but also risk reductions from diversification over the different (carbon mitigation) options. - Highlights: • We study the compliance problem of a private firm under both regulatory and technological uncertainty in an optimal control setting. • When firms are risk-averse, forest-backed offset options will be part of the compliance portfolio. • R and D creates valuable options on new technology

Expensing options solves nothing.

Science.gov (United States)

Sahlman, William A

2002-12-01

The use of stock options for executive compensation has become a lightning rod for public anger, and it's easy to see why. Many top executives grew hugely rich on the back of the gains they made on their options, profits they've been able to keep even as the value they were supposed to create disappeared. The supposed scam works like this: Current accounting regulations let companies ignore the cost of option grants on their income statements, so they can award valuable option packages without affecting reported earnings. Not charging the cost of the grants supposedly leads to overstated earnings, which purportedly translate into unrealistically high share prices, permitting top executives to realize big gains when they exercise their options. If an accounting anomaly is the problem, then the solution seems obvious: Write off executive share options against the current year's revenues. The trouble is, Sahlman writes, expensing option grants won't give us a more accurate view of earnings, won't add any information not already included in the financial statements, and won't even lead to equal treatment of different forms of executive pay. Far worse, expensing evades the real issue, which is whether compensation (options and other-wise) does what it's supposed to do--namely, help a company recruit, retain, and provide the right people with appropriate performance incentives. Any performance-based compensation system has the potential to encourage cheating. Only ethical management, sensible governance, adequate internal control systems, and comprehensive disclosure will save the investor from disaster. If, Sahlman warns, we pass laws that require the expensing of options, thinking that's fixed the fundamental flaws in corporate America's accounting, we will have missed a golden opportunity to focus on the much more extensive defects in the present system.

Feasibility analysis of the development of an oil field: a real options approach in a production sharing agreement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcelo Nunes Fonseca

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The aim of this research is to analyze the feasibility of developing a real oil field in Africa under a production sharing agreement, through the application of the real options theory. Design/methodology/approach – The research was conducted according to the principles of modeling and simulation, based on a structure that consists of three phases, in order to facilitate project feasibility analysis. Findings – Initially, according to the traditional method, we suggest that the decision-maker does not invest in the development of the field. However, by incorporating uncertainty into the decision-making process, other results were obtained. Although reduced, we attested that there is a likelihood of feasibility. Next, by using the binomial model to represent the process of oil barrel price diffusion, the asset value is calculated considering the flexibility of delaying the development of the field. Originality/value – The results show that, if a manager has the right to invest in the future and wait for better oil prices, postponing the development of an oil field adds value to his assets. The proposed method is a contribution that offers subsidies to improve decisionmaking processes to evaluate investments.

Mixed waste management options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Owens, C.B.; Kirner, N.P.

1992-01-01

Currently, limited storage and treatment capacity exists for commercial mixed waste streams. No commercial mixed waste disposal is available, and it has been estimated that if and when commercial mixed waste disposal becomes available, the costs will be high. If high disposal fees are imposed, generators may be willing to apply extraordinary treatment or regulatory approaches to properly dispose of their mixed waste. This paper explores the feasibility of several waste management scenarios and management options. Existing data on commercially generated mixed waste streams are used to identify the realm of mixed waste known to be generated. Each waste stream is evaluated from both a regulatory and technical perspective in order to convert the waste into a strictly low-level radioactive or a hazardous waste. Alternative regulatory approaches evaluated in this paper include a delisting petition) no migration petition) and a treatability variance. For each waste stream, potentially available treatment options are identified that could lead to these variances. Waste minimization methodology and storage for decay are also considered. Economic feasibility of each option is discussed broadly. Another option for mixed waste management that is being explored is the feasibility of Department of Energy (DOE) accepting commercial mixed waste for treatment, storage, and disposal. A study has been completed that analyzes DOE treatment capacity in comparison with commercial mixed waste streams. (author)

Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis M. Abadie

2014-05-01

Full Text Available We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC, and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

Solar PV leasing in Singapore: enhancing return on investments with options

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Shuang; Poh, K. L.

2017-05-01

Renewable energy is getting more important nowadays as an alternative to traditional energies. Solar energy, according to Energy Market Authority, is the most viable in the context of Singapore compared to other renewable energy sources due to land constraints. In light of the increasing adoption of solar power in Singapore, this paper focuses on solar PV leasing using a case study. This paper assesses the prospect for solar PV leasing companies in Singapore through the lens of embedded real options. The recent news that solar power is becoming the cheapest form of new electricity presents the leasing company an option to expand the scale of solar PV system. Taking into account this option, the Net Present Value (NPV) of the investment increased significantly compared to the case without real options. Technological developments result in a continuously changing environment with uncertainties. Thus, decision makers need to be aware of the inherent risk associated and identify options to maximize NPV. This upside potential is realized by exercising the managerial flexibility and exploiting the uncertainty. The paper enables solar energy planners to consider possible managerial flexibilities under uncertainties, showing how option thinking can be incorporated in the valuation of solar energy.

A Human-Robot Interaction Perspective on Assistive and Rehabilitation Robotics.

Science.gov (United States)

Beckerle, Philipp; Salvietti, Gionata; Unal, Ramazan; Prattichizzo, Domenico; Rossi, Simone; Castellini, Claudio; Hirche, Sandra; Endo, Satoshi; Amor, Heni Ben; Ciocarlie, Matei; Mastrogiovanni, Fulvio; Argall, Brenna D; Bianchi, Matteo

2017-01-01

Assistive and rehabilitation devices are a promising and challenging field of recent robotics research. Motivated by societal needs such as aging populations, such devices can support motor functionality and subject training. The design, control, sensing, and assessment of the devices become more sophisticated due to a human in the loop. This paper gives a human-robot interaction perspective on current issues and opportunities in the field. On the topic of control and machine learning, approaches that support but do not distract subjects are reviewed. Options to provide sensory user feedback that are currently missing from robotic devices are outlined. Parallels between device acceptance and affective computing are made. Furthermore, requirements for functional assessment protocols that relate to real-world tasks are discussed. In all topic areas, the design of human-oriented frameworks and methods is dominated by challenges related to the close interaction between the human and robotic device. This paper discusses the aforementioned aspects in order to open up new perspectives for future robotic solutions.

Analyzing the Risks Embedded in Option Prices with rndfittool

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barletta, Andrea; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

2018-01-01

This paper introduces a new computational tool for the analysis of the risks embedded in a set of prices of European-style options. The software enables the estimation of the risk-neutral density (RND) from the observed option prices by means of orthogonal polynomial expansions. Orthogonal...... polynomials offer a viable alternative to more standard techniques based on interpolation and estimation of the second-order derivatives of option prices. The app rndfittool is available on GitHub and its usage is illustrated with examples based on real data....

Industry perspective on digital upgrades: A utility perspective on digital upgrades

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blauw, R.J.

1994-01-01

Nuclear utilities face the need to upgrade aging and obsolete safety related and other critical equipment. This is the result of operation and maintenance concerns for reliability and maintainability. Digital technology is an option for these upgrades. A number of utilities have attempted exercising the digital option. The regulatory licensing results have been inconsistent and have raised a variety of issues. These issues and the subsequent licensing uncertainties have caused some utilities to temporarily drop digital technology as an upgrade option. Resolution of these issues and the need for regulatory stability is driving the development of industry standards and guidelines. These will provide guidance to support consistent design and implementation of digital upgrades. Successful completion of these documents is necessary for renewed consideration of the use of digital technology. This paper will present a utility perspective on how project management, configuration control, and a rigorous design process can serve to address the present regulatory issues. These issues include commercial grade dedication, reliability, electromagnetic interference, and failure and error management. This perspective is consistent with the standards and guidelines development effort

Dynamics Model Applied to Pricing Options with Uncertain Volatility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorella Fatone

2012-01-01

model is proposed. The data used to test the calibration problem included observations of asset prices over a finite set of (known equispaced discrete time values. Statistical tests were used to estimate the statistical significance of the two parameters of the Black-Scholes model: the volatility and the drift. The effects of these estimates on the option pricing problem were investigated. In particular, the pricing of an option with uncertain volatility in the Black-Scholes framework was revisited, and a statistical significance was associated with the price intervals determined using the Black-Scholes-Barenblatt equations. Numerical experiments involving synthetic and real data were presented. The real data considered were the daily closing values of the S&P500 index and the associated European call and put option prices in the year 2005. The method proposed here for calibrating the Black-Scholes dynamics model could be extended to other science and engineering models that may be expressed in terms of stochastic dynamical systems.

RTP as an Optional Service: It's Alive, But Is It Well?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldman, Charles; Barbose, Galen; Neenan, Bernie

2006-03-10

Economists have advocated for real-time pricing (RTP) of electricity on the basis of the gains in economic efficiency that would result from charging customers the contemporaneous marginal cost of supplying electricity instead of the average cost. In recent years, RTP has also become the subject of interest in a variety of policy contexts, including integrated resource planning initiatives, ongoing efforts to improve efficiency and reliability in competitive electricity markets, and implementation of default service in states with retail choice. Most experience with RTP has been as an optional service, that is, a self-selecting alternative to the standard utility service. By our count, approximately 70 utilities in the U.S. offered an optional RTP program at some point over the past 20 years. However, many programs are now defunct. In 2003, 47 utilities in the U.S. were still offering an optional RTP program, on either a pilot or permanent basis (see Figure 1). In addition, 10 utilities in states with retail choice currently offer RTP as the default service for large customers that are not under contract with a competitive supplier. Another two utilities have received regulatory approval to do so in the next few years. Although the results of a few optional RTP programs have been publicized, the vast majority of programs have operated in relative obscurity. To provide a wider perspective on utility and customer experience with RTP, we surveyed 43 optional RTP programs offered in 2003. We interviewed RTP program managers and other utility staff, and reviewed publicly available sources, including key regulatory documents and program evaluations. Based on this research, we identified trends related to RTP program history and outlook, program design and implementation, customer participation, and participant price response. The results are both surprising and instructive. We conclude that RTP is indeed alive but is not prospering as well it could. Thus, we offer a

How to choose the right capitalization option.

Science.gov (United States)

Vaughan, J; Wise, J

1996-12-01

Physician group practices and networks must have ready access to capital to finance their working capital needs, capital equipment acquisitions, and real estate purchases, as well as to fund the acquisition of additional practices. At least three options for capitalization are available to group practices and networks: debt financing, equity financing, or a combination of the two. The best option for physician group practices and networks depends on the costs of capital and the impact the strategy will have on decision making and governance.

Multifractal analysis of implied volatility in index options

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, GabJin

2014-06-01

In this paper, we analyze the statistical and the non-linear properties of the log-variations in implied volatility for the CAC40, DAX and S& P500 daily index options. The price of an index option is generally represented by its implied volatility surface, including its smile and skew properties. We utilize a Lévy process model as the underlying asset to deepen our understanding of the intrinsic property of the implied volatility in the index options and estimate the implied volatility surface. We find that the options pricing models with the exponential Lévy model can reproduce the smile or sneer features of the implied volatility that are observed in real options markets. We study the variation in the implied volatility for at-the-money index call and put options, and we find that the distribution function follows a power-law distribution with an exponent of 3.5 ≤ γ ≤ 4.5. Especially, the variation in the implied volatility exhibits multifractal spectral characteristics, and the global financial crisis has influenced the complexity of the option markets.

Application of Binomial Model and Market Asset Declaimer Methodology for Valuation of Abandon and Expand Options. The Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paweł Mielcarz

2007-06-01

Full Text Available The article presents a case study of valuation of real options included in a investment project. The main goal of the article is to present the calculation and methodological issues of application the methodology for real option valuation. In order to do it there are used the binomial model and Market Asset Declaimer methodology. The project presented in the article concerns the introduction of radio station to a new market. It includes two valuable real options: to abandon the project and to expand.

Probabilistic Cash Flow-Based Optimal Investment Timing Using Two-Color Rainbow Options Valuation for Economic Sustainability Appraisement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yonggu Kim

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This research determines the optimal investment timing using real options valuation to support decision-making for economic sustainability assessment. This paper illustrates an option pricing model using the Black-Scholes model applied to a case project to understand the model performance. Applicability of the project to the model requires two Monte Carlo simulations to satisfy a Markov process and a Wiener process. The position of project developers is not only the seller of products, but it is also the buyer of raw materials. Real options valuation can be influenced by the volatility of cash outflow, as well as the volatility of cash inflow. This study suggests two-color rainbow options valuation to overcome this issue, which is demonstrated for a steel plant project. The asymmetric results of the case study show that cash outflow (put option influences the value of the steel plant project more than cash inflow (call option does of which the discussion of the results is referred to a sensitivity analysis. The real options valuation method proposed in this study contributes to the literature on applying the new model, taking into consideration that investors maximize project profitability for economic sustainable development.

Giga-Investments: Modelling the Valuation of Very Large Industrial Real Investments

OpenAIRE

Collan, Mikael

2004-01-01

In this doctoral dissertation characteristics of very large industrial real investments (VLIRI) are investigated and a special group of VLIRI is defined as giga-investments. The investment decision-making regarding to giga-investments is discussed from the points of view of discounted cash-flow based methods and real option valuation. Based on the bacground of establishing giga-investments, state-of-the-art in capital budgeting (including real options) and by applying fuzzy numbers a novel me...

An Estimation of Profitability of Investment Projects in The Oil and Gas Industry Using Real Options Theory / Ocena Opłacalności Projektów Inwestycyjnych W Przemyśle Naftowym Z Wykorzystaniem Teorii Opcji Realnych

Science.gov (United States)

Kosowski, Piotr; Stopa, Jerzy

2012-11-01

Paper discusses issues relating to the valuation of investment efficiency in the oil and gas industry using a real options theory. The example of investment pricing using real options was depicted and it was confronted with the analysis executed with the use of traditional methods. Indicators commonly used to evaluate profitability of investment projects, based on a discounted cash flow method, have a few significant drawbacks, the most meaningful of which is staticity which means that any changes resulting from a decision process during the time of investment cannot be taken into consideration. In accordance with a methodology that is currently used, investment projects are analysed in a way that all the key decisions are made at the beginning and are irreversible. This approach assumes, that all the cash flows are specified and does not let the fact that during the time of investment there may appear new information, which could change its original form. What is also not analysed is the possibility of readjustment, due to staff managment's decisions, to the current market conditions, by expanding, speeding up/slowing down, abandoning or changing an outline of the undertaking. In result, traditional methods of investment projects valuation may lead to taking wrong decisions, e.g. giving up an owned exploitation licence or untimely liquidation of boreholes, which seem to be unprofitable. Due to all the above-mentioned there appears the necessity of finding some other methods which would let one make real and adequate estimations about investments in a petroleum industry especially when it comes to unconventional resources extraction. One of the methods which has been recently getting more and more approval in a world petroleum economics, is a real options pricing method. A real option is a right (but not an obligation) to make a decision connected with an investment in a specified time or time interval. According to the method a static model of pricing using DCF is

The Effects of Abandonment Options on Investment Timing and Profit Sharing of FDI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weiwei Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper incorporates cooperative game theory into a real option method in a foreign direct investment setting and examines the operational decisions of a multinational corporation in a cooperative framework, where the corporation is endowed with an abandonment option and shares its profit with the host country. In particular, we investigate how the abandonment options affect the optimal investment timing and the optimal profit share of a foreign direct investment using a real option game method. We show that the flexibility of the abandonment option induces the corporation to investment earlier, which indicates the negative effects on investment trigger. The result is consistent with intuition since the abandonment option provides insurance and thus reduces the overall risk of the project. We also find that the introduction of the abandonment option reduces the optimal profit share in a cooperative framework and in turn the lower profit share increases the investment trigger, thereby having a positive effect on the investment threshold to hinder the investment. By numerical analysis, we find that the overall effect of the abandonment options is inversely related to the investment trigger. These findings provide quantitative analysis about the decisions regarding cooperation in international investment extraction projects.

Making sense of future uncertainties using real options and scenario planning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Reedt Dortland, Maartje; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

2014-01-01

Healthcare across the world is facing many uncertainties. In Dutch healthcare, a recent policy change is forcing health organizations to deal more efficiently with their real estate, and this increases the need for real estate strategies that are more flexible. In order to support managers in

An environmental perspective on Lithuania's energy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banks, A.; Todd, J.

1995-01-01

The views of experts on Lithuania's energy options are reviewed. On the one hand, nuclear energy is seen as an island of stability in the power industry in the conditions of economic crisis, and some decision-makers believe that Lithuania cannot survive without nuclear. On the other hand, the Ignalina NPP is the largest Chernobyl-type RBMK plant within the former Soviet Union, posing a dangerous environmental hazard to the Baltic Sea region, and no upgrading seems to be capable of bringing the reactors up to the safety standards of today's Western reactors. Many experts believe that the only solution is to shut the reactors down as soon as possible. (P.A.) 33 refs

Material options for the superconducting rf system of the Future Circular Collider

CERN Document Server

Aull, Sarah; Butterworth, Andy; Schwerg, Nikolai

2018-01-01

The design of the superconducting RF (SRF) systems of the Future Circular Collider (FCC) machine variants requires a thorough comparison of the different options for cavity material, oper- ating temperature and frequency. We collected representative SRF performance data at different frequencies and temperatures of bulk niobium as the standard technology and of niobium thin films as a potential alternative and develop a perspective for future performance for all material- frequency-temperature combinations as function of accelerating gradient. Based on this perspective, we estimate the corresponding cryogenic grid power for the different FCC machines showing the most favourable accelerating gradients for the different materials and operating temperatures. Further- more, we discuss advantages, disadvantages and limitations of the different technology options to be taken into consideration.

On pricing futures options on random binomial tree

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bayram, Kamola; Ganikhodjaev, Nasir

2013-01-01

The discrete-time approach to real option valuation has typically been implemented in the finance literature using a binomial tree framework. Instead we develop a new model by randomizing the environment and call such model a random binomial tree. Whereas the usual model has only one environment (u, d) where the price of underlying asset can move by u times up and d times down, and pair (u, d) is constant over the life of the underlying asset, in our new model the underlying security is moving in two environments namely (u 1 , d 1 ) and (u 2 , d 2 ). Thus we obtain two volatilities σ 1 and σ 2 . This new approach enables calculations reflecting the real market since it consider the two states of market normal and extra ordinal. In this paper we define and study Futures options for such models.

The Decoy Effect as a Nudge: Boosting Hand Hygiene With a Worse Option.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Meng; Sun, Yan; Chen, Hui

2018-05-01

This article provides the first test of the decoy effect as a nudge to influence real-world behavior. The decoy effect is the phenomenon that an additional but worse option can boost the appeal of an existing option. It has been widely demonstrated in hypothetical choices, but its usefulness in real-world settings has been subject to debate. In three longitudinal experiments in food-processing factories, we tested two decoy sanitation options that were worse than the existing sanitizer spray bottle. Results showed that the presence of a decoy, but not an additional copy of the original sanitizer bottle in a different color, drastically increased food workers' hand sanitizer use from the original sanitizer bottle and, consequently, improved workers' passing rate in hand sanitary tests from 60% to 70% to above 90% for 20 days. These findings indicate that the decoy effect can be a powerful nudge technique to influence real-world behavior.

Rare disasters, credit, and option market puzzles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Du, Du; Elkamhi, Redouane

2017-01-01

calibrated to the real economy can simultaneously explain several key empirical regularities in equity, credit, and options markets. Our model captures the empirical level and volatility of credit spreads, generates a flexible credit risk term structure, and provides a good fit to a century of observed...

Estimation of petroleum assets: contribution of the options theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chesney, M.

1999-01-01

With the development of data on real options, the theoretical and practical research on projects estimation has advanced considerably. The analogy between investment advisabilities and options allow to take into account the flexibility which is inherent in any project as well as the choices which are available to investors. The advantages of this approach are shown in this paper. An example of application in the field of petroleum industry is given. (O.M.)

The real thing is something else

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Henrik Smed

2008-01-01

The trailer to Lady in the Lake (1947) promises an experience of the real which it will provide by having the camera assume Philip Marlowe's first person perspective throughout. Critics have discounted the experiment for a variety of reasons. Adopting a phenomenological perspective and comparing ...... the film to RoboCop (1987), Henrik Smed Nielsen suggests an original reason why its first person perspective "just does not feel right." Udgivelsesdato: 16 Juni...

Internet privacy options for adequate realisation

CERN Document Server

2013-01-01

A thorough multidisciplinary analysis of various perspectives on internet privacy was published as the first volume of a study, revealing the results of the achatech project "Internet Privacy - A Culture of Privacy and Trust on the Internet." The second publication from this project presents integrated, interdisciplinary options for improving privacy on the Internet utilising a normative, value-oriented approach. The ways in which privacy promotes and preconditions fundamental societal values and how privacy violations endanger the flourishing of said values are exemplified. The conditions which must be fulfilled in order to achieve a culture of privacy and trust on the internet are illuminated. This volume presents options for policy-makers, educators, businesses and technology experts how to facilitate solutions for more privacy on the Internet and identifies further research requirements in this area.

Real Options Valuation of U.S. Federal Renewable Energy Research,Development, Demonstration, and Deployment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris; Wiser, Ryan H.

2005-03-01

Benefits analysis of US Federal government funded research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) programs for renewable energy (RE) technology improvement typically employs a deterministic forecast of the cost and performance of renewable and nonrenewable fuels. The benefits estimate for a program derives from the difference between two forecasts, with and without the RD3 in place. The deficiencies of the current approach are threefold: (1) it does not consider uncertainty in the cost of non-renewable energy (NRE), and the option or insurance value of deploying RE if and when NRE costs rise; (2) it does not consider the ability of the RD3 manager to adjust the RD3 effort to suit the evolving state of the world, and the option value of this flexibility; and (3) it does not consider the underlying technical risk associated with RD3, and the impact of that risk on the programs optimal level of RD3 effort. In this paper, a rudimentary approach to determining the option value of publicly funded RE RD3 is developed. The approach seeks to tackle the first deficiency noted above by providing an estimate of the options benefit of an RE RD3 program in a future with uncertain NRE costs.While limited by severe assumptions, a computable lattice of options values reveals the economic intuition underlying the decision-making process. An illustrative example indicates how options expose both the insurance and timing values inherent in a simplified RE RD3 program that coarsely approximates the aggregation of current Federal RE RD3.This paper also discusses the severe limitations of this initial approach, and identifies needed model improvements before the approach can adequately respond to the RE RD3 analysis challenge.

7 CFR 1781.14 - Planning, options, and appraisals.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... designated agent when a WS loan, WS advance or RCD loan is made. (d) Options and appraisals related to the purchase of real estate for which a WS loan, WS advance, or RCD loan is made must be developed in...

A Human–Robot Interaction Perspective on Assistive and Rehabilitation Robotics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philipp Beckerle

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Assistive and rehabilitation devices are a promising and challenging field of recent robotics research. Motivated by societal needs such as aging populations, such devices can support motor functionality and subject training. The design, control, sensing, and assessment of the devices become more sophisticated due to a human in the loop. This paper gives a human–robot interaction perspective on current issues and opportunities in the field. On the topic of control and machine learning, approaches that support but do not distract subjects are reviewed. Options to provide sensory user feedback that are currently missing from robotic devices are outlined. Parallels between device acceptance and affective computing are made. Furthermore, requirements for functional assessment protocols that relate to real-world tasks are discussed. In all topic areas, the design of human-oriented frameworks and methods is dominated by challenges related to the close interaction between the human and robotic device. This paper discusses the aforementioned aspects in order to open up new perspectives for future robotic solutions.

A Human–Robot Interaction Perspective on Assistive and Rehabilitation Robotics

Science.gov (United States)

Beckerle, Philipp; Salvietti, Gionata; Unal, Ramazan; Prattichizzo, Domenico; Rossi, Simone; Castellini, Claudio; Hirche, Sandra; Endo, Satoshi; Amor, Heni Ben; Ciocarlie, Matei; Mastrogiovanni, Fulvio; Argall, Brenna D.; Bianchi, Matteo

2017-01-01

Assistive and rehabilitation devices are a promising and challenging field of recent robotics research. Motivated by societal needs such as aging populations, such devices can support motor functionality and subject training. The design, control, sensing, and assessment of the devices become more sophisticated due to a human in the loop. This paper gives a human–robot interaction perspective on current issues and opportunities in the field. On the topic of control and machine learning, approaches that support but do not distract subjects are reviewed. Options to provide sensory user feedback that are currently missing from robotic devices are outlined. Parallels between device acceptance and affective computing are made. Furthermore, requirements for functional assessment protocols that relate to real-world tasks are discussed. In all topic areas, the design of human-oriented frameworks and methods is dominated by challenges related to the close interaction between the human and robotic device. This paper discusses the aforementioned aspects in order to open up new perspectives for future robotic solutions. PMID:28588473

LabVIEW Real-Time

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva; Flockhart, Ronald Bruce; Seppey, P

2003-01-01

With LabVIEW Real-Time, you can choose from a variety of RT Series hardware. Add a real-time data acquisition component into a larger measurement and automation system or create a single stand-alone real-time solution with data acquisition, signal conditioning, motion control, RS-232, GPIB instrumentation, and Ethernet connectivity. With the various hardware options, you can create a system to meet your precise needs today, while the modularity of the system means you can add to the solution as your system requirements grow. If you are interested in Reliable and Deterministic systems for Measurement and Automation, you will profit from this seminar. Agenda: Real-Time Overview LabVIEW RT Hardware Platforms - Linux on PXI Programming with LabVIEW RT Real-Time Operating Systems concepts Timing Applications Data Transfer

Survey and selection of assessment methodologies for GAVE options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weterings, R.

1999-05-01

The Dutch government is interested in the possibilities for a market introduction of new gaseous and liquid energy carriers. To this purpose the GAVE-programme was recently set up. This study is carried out within the framework of the GAVE-programme and aims at the selection of methodologies for assessing the technological, economic, ecological and social perspectives of these new energy options (so-called GAVE-options). Based on the results of these assessments the Dutch ministries of Housing, Planning and Environment (VROM) and Economic Affairs (EZ) will decide at the end of 1999 about starting demonstration projects of promising energy carriers

Supply Chain Bilateral Coordination with Option Contracts under Inflation Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nana Wan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available There exist obvious changes in price and demand during the inflationary period, both of which are regarded as the key factors leading to supply chain uncertainty. In this paper, we focus our discussion on price increase and demand contraction caused by inflation, integrate the effect of inflation and option contracts within the model framework, and analyze how to use option contracts to achieve supply chain coordination under inflation scenarios. We consider a one-period two-stage supply chain consisting of one supplier and one retailer and explore the effect of inflation on the optimal ordering and production decisions under three different types of contracts: wholesale price contracts, option contracts, and portfolio contracts. Moreover, we explore the impact of option contracts on the supply chain through using wholesale price contracts model as the benchmark. We find that the retailer prefers adopting portfolio contracts, but the supplier prefers providing option contracts under inflation scenarios. Ultimately, option contracts will be implemented owing to the supplier’s market dominant position. In addition, we discuss the supply chain bilateral coordination mechanism with option contracts from the perspectives of two members and derive that option contracts can coordinate the supply chain and achieve Pareto improvement under inflation scenarios.

Options identification programme for demonstration of nuclear desalination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-08-01

This report responds to Resolutions GC(XXXVIII)/RES/7 in 1994 and GC(XXXIX)/RES/15 in 1995 at the IAEA General Conference, which requested the Director General to initiate a two year Options Identification Programme to identify and define practical options for demonstration of nuclear desalination and to submit a report on this programme to the General Conference of 1996. This programme was implemented by a Working Group, consisting of experts from interested Member States and IAEA staff, through a combination of periodic meetings and individual work assignments. It resulted in identification of a few practical options, based on reactor and desalination technologies which are themselves readily available without further development being required at the time of demonstration. The report thus provides a perspective how to proceed with demonstration of nuclear desalination, which is expected to help solving the potable water supply problem in the next century. Refs, figs, tabs

A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jácome, A.R.; Garrido, A.

2017-09-01

The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H) and exit (L) prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andres R. Jácome

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H and exit (L prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jácome, A.R.; Garrido, A.

2017-01-01

The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H) and exit (L) prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

The Effects of Accounting Treatment and Financial Crisis on the Stock Option Plans of Italian Companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Avallone

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Many studies state that favourable accounting treatment has been one of the main reasons behind employee stock options. In addition, stock options have recently been the target of growing criticism with a possible influence on incentive effectiveness and outrage costs. In such a perspective, the main purpose of the paper is to explore the impact of IFRS 2 and of the recent financial crisis on stock option compensation. Empirical evidence suggests that: (i IFRS 2 did not have a significant effect on stock option granting, (ii the issue of stock options is less likely to occur during the financial crisis.

Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuss, Sabine; Szolgayova, Jana

2010-01-01

Electricity generation is an important source of total CO 2 emissions, which in turn have been found to relate to an acceleration of global warming. Given that many OECD countries have to replace substantial portions of their electricity-generating capacity over the next 10-20 years, investment decisions today will determine the CO 2 -intensity of the future energy mix. But by what type of power plants will old (mostly fossil-fuel-fired) capacity be replaced? Given that modern, less carbon-intensive technologies are still expensive but can be expected to undergo improvements due to technical change in the near future, they may become more attractive, especially if fossil fuel price volatility makes traditional technologies more risky. At the same time, technological progress is an inherently uncertain process itself. In this paper, we use a real options model with stochastic technical change and stochastic fossil fuel prices in order to investigate their impact on replacement investment decisions in the electricity sector. We find that the uncertainty associated with the technological progress of renewable energy technologies leads to a postponement of investment. Even the simultaneous inclusion of stochastic fossil fuel prices in the same model does not make renewable energy competitive compared to fossil-fuel-fired technology in the short run based on the data used. This implies that policymakers have to intervene if renewable energy is supposed to get diffused more quickly. Otherwise, old fossil-fuel-fired equipment will be refurbished or replaced by fossil-fuel-fired capacity again, which enforces the lock-in of the current system into unsustainable electricity generation. (author)

Ranking of options of real estate use by expert assessments mathematical processing

Science.gov (United States)

Lepikhina, O. Yu; Skachkova, M. E.; Mihaelyan, T. A.

2018-05-01

The article is devoted to the development of the real estate assessment concept. In conditions of multivariate using of the real estate method based on calculating, the integral indicator of each variant’s efficiency is proposed. In order to calculate weights of criteria of the efficiency expert method, Analytic hierarchy process and its mathematical support are used. The method allows fulfilling ranking of alternative types of real estate use in dependence of their efficiency. The method was applied for one of the land parcels located on Primorsky district in Saint Petersburg.

Implementation of a real option in a sustainable supply chain: an empirical study of alkaline battery recycling

Science.gov (United States)

Cucchiella, Federica; D'Adamo, Idiano; Gastaldi, Massimo; Lenny Koh, S. C.

2014-06-01

Green supply chain management (GSCM) has emerged as a key approach for enterprises seeking to become environmentally sustainable. This paper aims to evaluate and describe the advantages of a GSCM approach by analysing practices and performance consequences in the battery recycling sector. It seeks to integrate works in supply chain management (SCM), environmental management, performance management and real option (RO) theory into one framework. In particular, life cycle assessment (LCA) is applied to evaluate the environmental impact of a battery recycling plant project, and life cycle costing (LCC) is applied to evaluate its economic impact. Firms, also understanding the relevance of GSCM, have often avoided applying the green principles because of the elevated costs that such management involved. Such costs could also seem superior to the potential advantages since standard performance measurement systems are internally and business focused; for these reasons, we consider all the possible value deriving also by uncertainty associated to a green project using the RO theory. This work is one of the few and pioneering efforts to investigate GSCM practices in the battery recycling sector.

Real Options in Defense R and D: A Decision Tree Analysis Approach for Options to Defer, Abandon, and Expand

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-01

the sale of assets for salvage value. However, for defense R&D projects, since there is no secondhand market for the projects, this option is...Peli, 2001; Panayi & Trigeorgis, 1998; Perlitz et al., 1999). Moreover, there are also very comprehensive books on the theory and practice of

VALORACIÓN DEL RIESGO FINANCIERO (CFAR EN LAS EPS A TRAVÉS DE OPCIONES REALES: UNA APLICACIÓN AL NIVEL DE ATENCIÓN IV Financial Risk Valuation (CFARin EPS's through Real Options: An Application at the IV Assistance Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mónica A. Arango Arango

2011-12-01

Full Text Available El número de pacientes tratados por insuficiencia renal en Colombia es cada vez mayor; por esta razón conocer los costos asociados a esta enfermedad es una necesidad manifiesta de las Entidades Promotoras de Salud con el fin de garantizar la estabilidad del Sistema de Seguridad Social en Salud. Este trabajo evalúa financieramente, mediante opciones reales, la posibilidad de hacer un trasplante de riñón en un paciente bajo tratamiento de insuficiencia renal y el Flujo de Caja en Riesgo al tener en cuenta esta opción. Se encontró que al hacer un análisis periódico de los costos asociados a continuar con el tratamiento, existen casos en los que es más eficiente hacer el trasplante, disminuyendo el valor presente de las erogaciones del paciente, mejorando el flujo de caja en riesgo y controlando los gastos futuros de la entidad que lo atiende.Number of patients treated for renal failure in Colombia is increasingly high; for this reason, knowing the costs associated to this disease is a clear need for Health Promoting Entities with the purpose of assuring stability of the Health Social Security System. Through real options, this article is a financial evaluation of the possibility of conducting a kidney transplant in a patient being under a renal failure treatment and the cash flow at risk when having this as an option. It was found that when a periodical analysis of costs associated to continuation of treatment is made, there are cases where transplant is a more efficient option to be executed since the present value of the patient's expenses is decreased, thus improving the cash flow at risk and controlling future expenses of the entity treating the patient.

The role of managerial stock option programs in governance: evidence from REIT stock repurchases

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ghosh, C.; Giambona, E.; Harding, J.P.; Sezer, O.; Sirmans, C.F.

2010-01-01

This article examines the role of stock option programs and executive holdings of stock options in real estate investment trust (REIT) governance. We study the issue by analyzing how the market reaction to a stock repurchase announcement varies as a function of the individual REIT's governance

The perspectives of nuclear option for Croatia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feretic, D.

2004-01-01

In order to satisfy the expected level of electricity consumption in Croatia it will be necessary, as a minimum, until the year 2020 to install about 2000 MW in new power plants. Gas and coal fired plants presently are main competitors to nuclear power plants. In near future it my be different due to expected problems with gas availability and cost increase and also in adverse environmental impact (particularly due to CO 2 emissions) of coal fired plants. Nuclear power plants have advantage not only in economics of produced energy but also in impact to the environment. Preservation of knowledge obtained during construction of NPP Krsko is also an important reason to maintain nuclear option. Pre construction and construction period for new plants (particularly for coal fired and nuclear plants) could be long so that timely start of preparatory activities is indispensable to meet the required schedule.(author)

Awareness and perceived fairness of Option B+ in Malawi: A population-level perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Yeatman, Sara; Trinitapoli, Jenny

2017-03-08

Policies for rationing antiretroviral therapy (ART) have been subject to on-going ethical debates. Introduced in Malawi in 2011, Option B+ prioritized HIV-positive pregnant women for lifelong ART regardless of the underlying state of their immune system, shifting the logic of allocation away from medical eligibility. Despite the rapid expansion of this policy, we know little about how it has been understood and interpreted by the people it affects. We assessed awareness and perceived fairness of the prioritization system for ART among a population-based sample of young women (n = 1440) and their partners (n = 574) in southern Malawi. We use a card-sort technique to elicit understandings of who gets ART under Option B+ and who should be prioritized, and we compare perceptions to actual ART policy using sequence analysis and optimal matching. We then use ordered logistic regression to identify the factors associated with policy awareness. In 2015, only 30.7% of women and 21.1% of male partners understood how ART was being distributed. There was widespread confusion around whether otherwise healthy HIV-positive pregnant women could access ART under Option B + . Nonetheless, more young adults thought that the fairest policy should prioritize such women than believed the actual policy did. Women who were older, more educated or had recently engaged with the health system through antenatal care or ART had more accurate understandings of Option B + . Among men, policy awareness was lower, and was patterned only by education. Although most respondents were unaware that Option B+ afforded ART access to healthy-pregnant women, Malawians support the prioritization of pregnant women. Countries adopting Option B+ or other new ART policies such as universal test-and-treat should communicate the policies and their rationales to the public - such transparency would be more consistent with a fair and ethical process and could additionally serve to clarify confusion and

Typology of Options for Metal Recycling: Australia’s Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Artem Golev

2015-12-01

Full Text Available While Australia has traditionally relied on obtaining metals from primary sources (namely mined natural resources, there is significant potential to recover metals from end-of-life-products and industrial waste. Although any metals recycling value chain requires a feasible technology at its core, many other non-technical factors are key links in the chain, which can compromise the overall viability to recycle a commodity and/or product. The “Wealth from Waste” Cluster project funded by the Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO Flagship Collaboration Fund and partner universities is focusing on identifying viable options to “mine” metals contained in discarded urban infrastructure, manufactured products and consumer goods. A key aspect of this research is to understand the critical non-technical barriers and system opportunities to enhance rates of metals recycling in Australia. Work to date has estimated the mass and current worth of metals in above ground resources. Using these outcomes as a basis, a typology for different options for (metal reuse and recycling has been developed to classify the common features, which is presented in this article. In addition, the authors investigate the barriers and enablers in the recycling value chain, and propose a set of requirements for a feasible pathway to close the material loop for metals in Australia.

Mouse-tracking evidence for parallel anticipatory option evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cranford, Edward A; Moss, Jarrod

2017-12-23

In fast-paced, dynamic tasks, the ability to anticipate the future outcome of a sequence of events is crucial to quickly selecting an appropriate course of action among multiple alternative options. There are two classes of theories that describe how anticipation occurs. Serial theories assume options are generated and evaluated one at a time, in order of quality, whereas parallel theories assume simultaneous generation and evaluation. The present research examined the option evaluation process during a task designed to be analogous to prior anticipation tasks, but within the domain of narrative text comprehension. Prior research has relied on indirect, off-line measurement of the option evaluation process during anticipation tasks. Because the movement of the hand can provide a window into underlying cognitive processes, online metrics such as continuous mouse tracking provide more fine-grained measurements of cognitive processing as it occurs in real time. In this study, participants listened to three-sentence stories and predicted the protagonists' final action by moving a mouse toward one of three possible options. Each story was presented with either one (control condition) or two (distractor condition) plausible ending options. Results seem most consistent with a parallel option evaluation process because initial mouse trajectories deviated further from the best option in the distractor condition compared to the control condition. It is difficult to completely rule out all possible serial processing accounts, although the results do place constraints on the time frame in which a serial processing explanation must operate.

The incremental cost of switching from Option B to Option B+ for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, Lisa; Shaffer, Nathan; Sangrujee, Nalinee; Abimbola, Taiwo O

2014-03-01

To estimate the incremental cost over 5 years of a policy switch from the Option B to the Option B+ protocol for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Data from cost studies and other published sources were used to determine the cost, per woman and per cohort (1000 breastfeeding and 1000 non-breastfeeding women), of switching from Option B (maternal triple antiretroviral [ARV] regimen during pregnancy and breastfeeding plus daily nevirapine for the infant for 6 weeks) to Option B+ (maternal triple ARV regimen initiated during pregnancy and continued for life). The variables used to model the different scenarios were maternal CD4+ T lymphocyte (CD4+ cell) count (350-500 versus > 500 cells/µl), rate of decline in CD4+ cells (average, rapid, slow), breastfeeding status (yes, no) and breastfeeding duration (12, 18 or 24 months). For women with CD4+ cell counts of 350-500 cells/µl, the incremental cost per 1000 women was 157,345 United States dollars (US$) for breastfeeding women and US$ 92,813 for non-breastfeeding women. For women with CD4+ cell counts > 500 cells/µl, the incremental cost per 1000 women ranged from US$ 363,443 to US$ 484,591 for breastfeeding women and was US$ 605,739 for non-breastfeeding women. From a cost perspective, a policy switch from Option B to Option B+ is feasible in PMTCT programme settings where resources are currently being allocated to Option B.

Comparing energy storage options for renewable energy integration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østergaard, Poul Alberg

-inclusive 100% renewable energy scenario developed for the Danish city Aalborg based on wind power, bio-resources and low-temperature geothermal heat. The paper investigates the system impact of different types of energy storage systems including district heating storage, biogas storage and electricity storage......Increasing penetrations of fluctuating energy sources for electricity generation, heating, cooling and transportation increase the need for flexibility of the energy system to accommodate the fluctuations of these energy sources. Controlling production, controlling demand and utilizing storage...... options are the three general categories of measures that may be applied for ensuring balance between production and demand, however with fluctuating energy sources, options are limited, and flexible demand has also demonstrated limited perspective. This paper takes its point of departure in an all...

Investment opportunity in China's overseas oil project: An empirical analysis based on real option approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Bao-Jun; Zhou, Hui-Ling; Chen, Hao; Wang, Kai; Cao, Hong

2017-01-01

China's overseas oil investments uphold national energy security. Located in the complex international economic and political environment, the benefits of overseas oil projects are affected by various uncertainties. Oil companies call for a set of evaluation method dealing with these uncertainties, especially when encountering low-oil-price conditions. It is much more crucial to answer when to optimally invest rather than whether to invest. This paper analyzes the investment opportunity of an oil project in the development and production phase considering uncertainty, irreversibility and management flexibility. The decision-making process combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method and the trinomial tree model of Real Option Approach (ROA). For practical purposes, tools of hurdle price, cumulative probability and decision tree are adopted. In addition, results of the case project show the economic feasibility at present and optimal start-up timing at the end of 2016. Besides, the lower cost parameters generally make it easier to meet the opportunity. The scenario analysis suggests the higher risk contributes to an earlier start-up. Furthermore, the issues of method applicability, investment signals and decision-lag effects are discussed. - Highlights: • Volatility is combined with fluctuations in oil price, exchange rate and political situation. • Hurdle price is adopted as a critical price to measure investment opportunity. • Scenario analysis suggests the higher risk contribute to earlier investment timing.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of Option B+ for HIV prevention and treatment of mothers and children in Malawi.

Science.gov (United States)

Fasawe, Olufunke; Avila, Carlos; Shaffer, Nathan; Schouten, Erik; Chimbwandira, Frank; Hoos, David; Nakakeeto, Olive; De Lay, Paul

2013-01-01

The Ministry of Health in Malawi is implementing a pragmatic and innovative approach for the management of all HIV-infected pregnant women, termed Option B+, which consists of providing life-long antiretroviral treatment, regardless of their CD4 count or clinical stage. Our objective was to determine if Option B+ represents a cost-effective option. A decision model simulates the disease progression of a cohort of HIV-infected pregnant women receiving prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy, and estimates the number of paediatric infections averted and maternal life years gained over a ten-year time horizon. We assess the cost-effectiveness from the Ministry of Health perspective while taking into account the practical realities of implementing ART services in Malawi. If implemented as recommended by the World Health Organization, options A, B and B+ are equivalent in preventing new infant infections, yielding cost effectiveness ratios between US$ 37 and US$ 69 per disability adjusted life year averted in children. However, when the three options are compared to the current practice, the provision of antiretroviral therapy to all mothers (Option B+) not only prevents infant infections, but also improves the ten-year survival in mothers more than four-fold. This translates into saving more than 250,000 maternal life years, as compared to mothers receiving only Option A or B, with savings of 153,000 and 172,000 life years respectively. Option B+ also yields favourable incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICER) of US$ 455 per life year gained over the current practice. In Malawi, Option B+ represents a favorable policy option from a cost-effectiveness perspective to prevent future infant infections, save mothers' lives and reduce orphanhood. Although Option B+ would require more financial resources initially, it would save societal resources in the long-term and represents a strategic option to simplify and integrate HIV services into maternal, newborn and child

A DG approach to the numerical solution of the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility option pricing model

Science.gov (United States)

Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.

2017-12-01

Stochastic volatility models enable to capture the real world features of the options better than the classical Black-Scholes treatment. Here we focus on pricing of European-style options under the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility model when the option value depends on the time, on the price of the underlying asset and on the volatility as a function of a mean reverting Orstein-Uhlenbeck process. A standard mathematical approach to this model leads to the non-stationary second-order degenerate partial differential equation of two spatial variables completed by the system of boundary and terminal conditions. In order to improve the numerical valuation process for a such pricing equation, we propose a numerical technique based on the discontinuous Galerkin method and the Crank-Nicolson scheme. Finally, reference numerical experiments on real market data illustrate comprehensive empirical findings on options with stochastic volatility.

Using Priced Options to Solve the Exposure Problem in Sequential Auctions

Science.gov (United States)

Mous, Lonneke; Robu, Valentin; La Poutré, Han

This paper studies the benefits of using priced options for solving the exposure problem that bidders with valuation synergies face when participating in multiple, sequential auctions. We consider a model in which complementary-valued items are auctioned sequentially by different sellers, who have the choice of either selling their good directly or through a priced option, after fixing its exercise price. We analyze this model from a decision-theoretic perspective and we show, for a setting where the competition is formed by local bidders, that using options can increase the expected profit for both buyers and sellers. Furthermore, we derive the equations that provide minimum and maximum bounds between which a synergy buyer's bids should fall in order for both sides to have an incentive to use the options mechanism. Next, we perform an experimental analysis of a market in which multiple synergy bidders are active simultaneously.

Economic assessment of R and D with real options in the field of fast reactors taking into account uncertainty on their competitiveness: the case of France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taverdet-Popiolek, Nathalie; Shoai Tehrani, Bianka

2013-01-01

In a context of potential worldwide nuclear development, this paper aims at assessing the economic value of pursuing research in Generation IV fast reactors today, given that it would allow industrial deployment around 2040 in case of high uranium prices. Two key variables shall be considered as inputs for the assessment: the price of uranium and the over-cost of Generation IV reactors compared to the previous generation. Our model based on real options theory demonstrates that this value is positive and outweighs the risks associated with the competitiveness of Generation IV. (authors)

Energy policy options for Illinois. Proceedings. [26 papers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1977-01-01

Twenty-six papers presented at the Fifth Annual Oil Illinois Energy Conference are categorized into five sections, namely: An overview of U.S. and Illinois Energy Policy; Energy Policy; Conservation--Solar--Biomass and Solid Wastes; Energy Policy; Petroleum and Natural Gas; Energy Policy; Coal and Electric Utilities; and Economic and Consumer Concerns. One paper, A Perspective on Long-Range Nuclear Energy Options, by William O. Harms has previously appeared in EAPA 4: 1364. (MCW)

For the last time: stock options are an expense.

Science.gov (United States)

Bodie, Zvi; Kaplan, Robert S; Merton, Robert C

2003-03-01

Should stock options be recorded as an expense on a company's income statement and balance sheet, or should they remain where they are, relegated to footnotes? The extraordinary boom in share prices during the Internet bubble made critics of option expensing look like spoilsports. But since the crash, the debate has returned with a vengeance. And no wonder: The authors believe the case for expensing options is overwhelming. In this article, Nobel Iaureate Robert Merton, one of the inventors of the Black-Scholes option-pricing model; his coauthor on the classic textbook Finance, Zvi Bodie; and Robert Kaplan, creator of the Balanced Scorecard, examine and dismiss the principal claims put forward by those who continue to oppose options expensing. They demonstrate that stock-option grants do indeed have real cash-flow implications that need to be reported. They show that effective ways certainly exist to quantify those implications. They detail the distortions that relegating stock-option accounting to footnotes creates. And they show why reporting option costs should in no way hamper young companies in their efforts to provide incentives. Options are indeed a powerful incentive, the authors agree, and failing to record a transaction that creates such powerful effects is economically indefensible. Worse, it encourages companies to favor options over alternative incentive systems. It is not the proper role of accounting standards, the authors argue, to distort executive and employee compensation by subsidizing one particular form of compensation and no other. Companies should choose compensation methods according to their economic benefits--not the way they are reported.

On the Option Effects of Short-Time Work Arrangements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huisman, Kuno; Thijssen, J.J.J.

2018-01-01

We analyse the short term work (STW) regulations that several OECD countries introduced after the 2007 financial crisis. We view these measures as a collection of real options and study the dynamic effect of STW on the endogenous liquidation decision of the firm. While STW delays a firm’s

Real-time locating systems (RTLS) in healthcare: a condensed primer.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamel Boulos, Maged N; Berry, Geoff

2012-06-28

Real-time locating systems (RTLS, also known as real-time location systems) have become an important component of many existing ubiquitous location aware systems. While GPS (global positioning system) has been quite successful as an outdoor real-time locating solution, it fails to repeat this success indoors. A number of RTLS technologies have been used to solve indoor tracking problems. The ability to accurately track the location of assets and individuals indoors has many applications in healthcare. This paper provides a condensed primer of RTLS in healthcare, briefly covering the many options and technologies that are involved, as well as the various possible applications of RTLS in healthcare facilities and their potential benefits, including capital expenditure reduction and workflow and patient throughput improvements. The key to a successful RTLS deployment lies in picking the right RTLS option(s) and solution(s) for the application(s) or problem(s) at hand. Where this application-technology match has not been carefully thought of, any technology will be doomed to failure or to achieving less than optimal results.

Energy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hampton, Michael

1999-01-01

This chapter focuses on energy options as a means of managing exposure to energy prices. An intuitive approach to energy options is presented, and traditional definitions of call and put options are given. The relationship between options and swaps, option value and option exercises, commodity options, and option pricing are described. An end-user's guide to energy option strategy is outlined, and straight options, collars, participating swaps and collars, bull and bear spreads, and swaption are examined. Panels explaining the defining of basis risk, and discussing option pricing and the Greeks, delta hedging, managing oil options using the Black-Scholes model, caps, floors and collars, and guidelines on hedging versus speculation with options are included in the paper

Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

2017-03-01

The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

Pricing and simulation for real estate index options: Radial basis point interpolation

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Pu; Zou, Dong; Wang, Jiayue

2018-06-01

This study employs the meshfree radial basis point interpolation (RBPI) for pricing real estate derivatives contingent on real estate index. This method combines radial and polynomial basis functions, which can guarantee the interpolation scheme with Kronecker property and effectively improve accuracy. An exponential change of variables, a mesh refinement algorithm and the Richardson extrapolation are employed in this study to implement the RBPI. Numerical results are presented to examine the computational efficiency and accuracy of our method.

What an option is worth for an exploration opportunity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacKay, J.A.; Lerche, I.

1995-01-01

The reason that a corporation might want to take an option on an opportunity is to wait until more information becomes available before committing to the decision to drill. For instance, in a situation where an opportunity is one of the first prospects in a new play trend, there is often very little known (as opposed to surmised) about the potential gain, and the chances of success are also often poorly determined. Thus, until the estimates of costs, gains, and success chances are firmed up in the future by drilling information from other operators, the corporation would prefer to hold off on the decision to drill a particular prospect. Recently Dixit and Pindyck have persuasively argued qualitatively that an options approach should be taken to capital investment in any business field because, opportunities are options--rights but not obligations to take some action in the future and, as soon as you begin thinking of investment opportunities as options, the premise (that investment decisions can be reversed if conditions change or, if they cannot be reversed, that they are now-or-never propositions) changes. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and the choice of timing alter the investment decision in critical ways. From an oil industry perspective Dixit and Pindyck eloquently provide the rationale for considering an option position rather than dealing only with net present value considerations. The ability to calculate the worth of an option to a hydrocarbon exploration opportunity is what this article is about

The environmental assessment of nuclear materials disposition options: A transportation perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, R.K.; Clauss, D.B.; Moyer, J.W.

1994-01-01

The US Department of Energy has undertaken a program to evaluate and select options for the long-term storage and disposition of fissile materials declared surplus to defense needs as a result of the end of the Cold War. The transport of surplus fissile material will be an important and highly visible aspect of the environmental impact studies and other planning documents required for implementation of the disposition options. This report defines the roles and requirements for transportation of fissile materials in the program, and discusses an existing methodology for determining the environmental impact in terms of risk. While it will be some time before specific alternatives are chosen that will permit the completion of detailed risk calculations, the analytical models for performing the probabilistic risk assessments already exist with much of the supporting data related to the transportation system. This report summarizes the various types of data required and identifies sources for that data

[Treatment options for patellar tendinopathy].

Science.gov (United States)

Duthon, V B; Borloz, S; Ziltener, J-L

2012-07-25

Patellar tendinopathy is also called jumper's knee because of its high incidence in athletes with jumping or cutting activities as soccer, basketball, volleyball. Many different treatment methods have been described. However, no consensus exists regarding the optimal treatment for this condition. According to the literature, eccentric exercise-based physical therapy should be proposed first because of its strong scientific evidence. Shockwave therapy and injections may be useful but their real efficacy still has to be proven by randomized controlled study. For patients recalcitrant to more conservative options, operative management may be indicated.

Considerations Regarding ROK Spent Nuclear Fuel Management Options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braun, Chaim; Forrest, Robert

2013-01-01

In this paper we discuss spent fuel management options in the Republic of Korea (ROK) from two interrelated perspectives: Centralized dry cask storage and spent fuel pyroprocessing and burning in sodium fast reactors (SFRs). We argue that the ROK will run out of space for at-reactors spent fuel storage by about the year 2030 and will thus need to transition centralized dry cask storage. Pyroprocessing plant capacity, even if approved and successfully licensed and constructed by that time, will not suffice to handle all the spent fuel discharged annually. Hence centralized dry cask storage will be required even if the pyroprocessing option is successfully developed by 2030. Pyroprocessing is but an enabling technology on the path leading to fissile material recycling and burning in future SFRs. In this regard we discuss two SFR options under development in the U. S.: the Super Prism and the Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR). We note that the U. S. is further along in reactor development than the ROK. The ROK though has acquired more experience, recently in investigating fuel recycling options for SFRs. We thus call for two complementary joint R and D project to be conducted by U. S. and ROK scientists. One leading to the development of a demonstration centralized away-from-reactors spent fuel storage facility. The other involve further R and D on a combined SFR-fuel cycle complex based on the reactor and fuel cycle options discussed in the paper

Cognitive and Affective Aspects of Creative Option Generation in Everyday Life Situations.

Science.gov (United States)

Schweizer, T Sophie; Schmalenberger, Katja M; Eisenlohr-Moul, Tory A; Mojzisch, Andreas; Kaiser, Stefan; Funke, Joachim

2016-01-01

Which factors influence a human being's ability to develop new perspectives and be creative? This ability is pivotal for any context in which new cognitions are required, such as innovative endeavors in science and art, or psychotherapeutic settings. In this article, we seek to bring together two research programs investigating the generation of creative options: On the one hand, research on option generation in the decision-making literature and, on the other hand, cognitive and clinical creativity research. Previous decision-making research has largely neglected the topic of generating creative options. Experiments typically provided participants with a clear set of options to choose from, but everyday life situations are less structured and allow countless ways to react. Before choosing an option, agents have to self-generate a set of options to choose from. Such option generation processes have only recently moved to the center of attention. The present study examines the creative quality of self-generated options in daily life situations. A student sample (N = 48) generated options for action in 70 briefly described everyday life scenarios. We rated the quality of the options on three dimensions of creativity- originality, feasibility, and divergence -and linked these qualities to option generation fluency (speed and number of generated options), situational features like the familiarity and the affective valence of the situation in which the options were generated, and trait measures of cognitive performance. We found that when situations were familiar to the participant, greater negative affective valence of the situation was associated with more originality and divergence of generated options. We also found that a higher option generation fluency was associated with a greater maximal originality of options. We complete our article with a joint research agenda for researchers in the decision-making field focusing on option generation and, on the other hand

Evaluación socioeconómica de proyectos con el método de opciones reales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Guajardo Thomas

2008-07-01

opciones reales fue superior entre un 25 y un 500%, dependiendo del proyecto en estudio, al calculado a través de los métodos tradicionales. Por ello, se pudo concluir que el enfoque de opciones reales resulta una alternativa viable y útil para las instituciones públicas que buscan en Chile una adecuada valoración de sus proyectos de inversión. This article analyzes the application of the Real Options Theory in the assessment of social projects in Chile to determine their application and limitation conditions. The traditional techniques to assess investment alternatives, due to its static character, does not appropriately capture the  uncertainty inherent in the project, as well as they does not take into account either the capacity of a project to addapt to future scenes, that is to say, its operative flexibility. To correct those faults, appears a complementary methodology called Real Options, which is an analogy to the financial options that allow to reflect in numbers the flexibility value of a project under uncertainty conditions; this way, the real options method gets to join the financial theory and the strategic management of a project avoiding committing inaccuracies regarding the real value of the project. The application of the real options method in private investment alternatives has been the subject of numbers of works and investigations, having a big knowledge related to its limitations and considerations; however, there does not exist clarity about its application in investment alternatives of the public sector. To carry out the analysis, it was developed in a first stage the basic concepts of the real options theory and social economic projects assessment, after that four real cases of study were presented,  which were subjected to assessment with the traditional method of current Net Value and then with the real options method. On comparing the results with the real options method and the traditional ones, for all the cases, the value shown by the

Real-Time Adaptation of Influence Strategies in Online Selling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kaptein, M.C.; Parvinen, P.

2014-01-01

Real-time adjustments in online selling are becoming increasingly common. In this paper we describe a novel method of real-time adaptation, and introduce influence strategies as a useful level of analysis for personalization of online selling. The proposed method incorporates three perspectives on

Macro economic linkages and impacts. Technical and fiscal options in GHG abatement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Backus, G.; Barker, T.

1995-01-01

This paper discusses some of the main macro economic linkages and feedbacks associated with policies for GHG abatement. The linkages in a global model are described when OECD carbon taxes or alternatively OECD/OPEC joint action raises world oil prices with a smaller OECD carbon tax. The results give a world perspective on the GHG abatement problem. The paper continues with a discussion of the linkages and feedbacks associated with three options: demand-side management (DSM), mainly to improve end-use energy efficiency, reductions in subsidies of fossil fuel production and use, and investment in renewable energy supplies, specifically in energy forestry and associated infrastructure. It concludes that DSM and investment in renewables are unlikely on their own to bring about reduction in GHG emissions, and that new supplies may even lead to increased emissions by driving down the price of energy. However, reductions in emissions may be compatible with increased efficiency and development, as well as with improvements in the quality of the local environment and in rural living, with the new supplies replacing fossil fuel supplies, provided that real fossil fuel prices are increased via removal of subsidies and if required carbon taxes. (au) 15 refs

Real-time perspective correction in video stream

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Glagolev Vladislav

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The paper describes an algorithm used for software perspective correction. The algorithm uses the camera’s orientation angles and transforms the coordinates of pixels on a source image to coordinates on a virtual image form the camera whose focal plane is perpendicular to the gravity vector. This algorithm can be used as a low-cost replacement of a gyrostabilazer in specific applications that restrict using movable parts or heavy and pricey equipment.

48 CFR 552.217-71 - Notice Regarding Option(s).

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Notice Regarding Option(s... Notice Regarding Option(s). As prescribed in 517.208(b), insert the following provision: Notice Regarding Option(s) (NOV 1992) The General Services Administration (GSA) has included an option to [Insert...

With or without you: consumer acceptance of two national brand portfolio extension options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, Diederich; Nenycz-Thiel, Magda

2011-01-01

The aim of this paper is to investigate which portfolio extension option: either a cheaper subbrand or a private label endorsed by the national brand is better from the consumer perspective. Two hypothetical product concepts from a leading beer brand were tested among Dutch consumers. The findings

Bilateral Coordination Strategy of Supply Chain with Bidirectional Option Contracts under Inflation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nana Wan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available As far as the price increase and the demand contraction caused by inflation are concerned, we establish a Stackelberg game model that incorporates bidirectional option contracts and the effect of inflation and derive the optimal ordering and production policies on a one-period two-stage supply chain composed of one supplier and one retailer. Through using the model of wholesale price contracts as the benchmark, we find that the introduction of bidirectional option contracts can benefit both the supplier and the retailer under inflation scenarios. Based on the conclusions drawn above, we design the bilateral coordination mechanism from the different perspective of two members involved and discuss how bidirectional option contracts should be set to achieve channel coordination under inflation scenarios. Through the sensitivity analysis, we illustrate the effect of inflation on the optimal decision variables and the optimal expected profits of the two parties with bidirectional option contracts.

Stakeholder perspectives on carbon capture and storage in Indonesia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Setiawan, Andri D.; Cuppen, Eefje

2013-01-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is being considered as an option to reduce CO 2 emissions worldwide. Yet recent cases show that CCS faces divergent public acceptance issues. This paper investigates stakeholder perspectives on CCS in Indonesia. Q methodology was adopted to analyse the diversity of stakeholder perspectives. Four perspectives were identified: (1) “CO 2 emissions reduction through clean energy sources rather than CCS”; (2) “CCS as one of the options in the transition to a sustainable energy system”; (3) “CCS as the only optimal solution to reduce CO 2 emissions”; (4) “CCS is only a tactic to keep burning coal forever”. Based on these results, we argue that stakeholder acceptance of CCS should be understood as a complex notion. This means that understanding whether or under what conditions stakeholders would be willing to support CCS, requires consideration of stakeholders' viewpoints about broader questions of CO 2 emission reduction and energy supply in Indonesia, rather than studying attitudes towards CCS in isolation. We discuss how the approach taken in this study can be used and followed up in policymaking on CCS in Indonesia. - Highlights: • We investigate stakeholder perspectives on CCS in Indonesia with Q methodology. • The study revealed four shared perspectives on CCS in Indonesia. • Of the four perspectives, two are contrasting perspectives: one pro and one con CCS. • The other two are nuanced perspectives and differ in their argumentation on CCS. • From these results we derive academic and policy implications

The incremental cost of switching from Option B to Option B+ for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV

Science.gov (United States)

Shaffer, Nathan; Sangrujee, Nalinee; Abimbola, Taiwo O

2014-01-01

Abstract Objective To estimate the incremental cost over 5 years of a policy switch from the Option B to the Option B+ protocol for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Methods Data from cost studies and other published sources were used to determine the cost, per woman and per cohort (1000 breastfeeding and 1000 non-breastfeeding women), of switching from Option B (maternal triple antiretroviral [ARV] regimen during pregnancy and breastfeeding plus daily nevirapine for the infant for 6 weeks) to Option B+ (maternal triple ARV regimen initiated during pregnancy and continued for life). The variables used to model the different scenarios were maternal CD4+ T lymphocyte (CD4+ cell) count (350–500 versus > 500 cells/µl), rate of decline in CD4+ cells (average, rapid, slow), breastfeeding status (yes, no) and breastfeeding duration (12, 18 or 24 months). Findings For women with CD4+ cell counts of 350–500 cells/µl, the incremental cost per 1000 women was 157 345 United States dollars (US$) for breastfeeding women and US$ 92 813 for non-breastfeeding women. For women with CD4+ cell counts > 500 cells/µl, the incremental cost per 1000 women ranged from US$ 363 443 to US$ 484 591 for breastfeeding women and was US$ 605 739 for non-breastfeeding women. Conclusion From a cost perspective, a policy switch from Option B to Option B+ is feasible in PMTCT programme settings where resources are currently being allocated to Option B. PMID:24700975

41 CFR 102-73.15 - What real estate acquisition and related services may Federal agencies provide?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What real estate... REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 73-REAL ESTATE ACQUISITION General Provisions § 102-73.15 What real estate... provide real estate acquisition and related services, including leasing (with or without purchase options...

How far can various control options take us in terms of increased hydraulic capacity under wet weather conditions?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sharma, Anitha Kumari; Guildal, T.; Thomsen, H. A. R.

Many modelling studies have demonstrated that the hydraulic capacity of the WWTP can be improved by introducing various real time control options, however few studies have demonstrated how effective these controls are in the real world....

Designing flexible engineering systems utilizing embedded architecture options

Science.gov (United States)

Pierce, Jeff G.

This dissertation develops and applies an integrated framework for embedding flexibility in an engineered system architecture. Systems are constantly faced with unpredictability in the operational environment, threats from competing systems, obsolescence of technology, and general uncertainty in future system demands. Current systems engineering and risk management practices have focused almost exclusively on mitigating or preventing the negative consequences of uncertainty. This research recognizes that high uncertainty also presents an opportunity to design systems that can flexibly respond to changing requirements and capture additional value throughout the design life. There does not exist however a formalized approach to designing appropriately flexible systems. This research develops a three stage integrated flexibility framework based on the concept of architecture options embedded in the system design. Stage One defines an eight step systems engineering process to identify candidate architecture options. This process encapsulates the operational uncertainty though scenario development, traces new functional requirements to the affected design variables, and clusters the variables most sensitive to change. The resulting clusters can generate insight into the most promising regions in the architecture to embed flexibility in the form of architecture options. Stage Two develops a quantitative option valuation technique, grounded in real options theory, which is able to value embedded architecture options that exhibit variable expiration behavior. Stage Three proposes a portfolio optimization algorithm, for both discrete and continuous options, to select the optimal subset of architecture options, subject to budget and risk constraints. Finally, the feasibility, extensibility and limitations of the framework are assessed by its application to a reconnaissance satellite system development problem. Detailed technical data, performance models, and cost estimates

Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høg, Esben; Tsiaras, Leonicas

2011-01-01

of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well...... obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark...

Climate change and the economics of biomass energy feedstocks in semi-arid agricultural landscapes: A spatially explicit real options analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Regan, Courtney M; Connor, Jeffery D; Raja Segaran, Ramesh; Meyer, Wayne S; Bryan, Brett A; Ostendorf, Bertram

2017-05-01

The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted diversification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically diverse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield

Risk management with substitution options: Valuing flexibility in small-scale energy systems

Science.gov (United States)

Knapp, Karl Eric

Several features of small-scale energy systems make them more easily adapted to a changing operating environment than large centralized designs. This flexibility is often manifested as the ability to substitute inputs. This research explores the value of this substitution flexibility and the marginal value of becoming a "little more flexible" in the context of real project investment in developing countries. The elasticity of substitution is proposed as a stylized measure of flexibility and a choice variable. A flexible alternative (elasticity > 0) can be thought of as holding a fixed-proportions "nflexible" asset plus a sequence of exchange options---the option to move to another feasible "recipe" each period. Substitutability derives value from following a contour of anticipated variations and from responding to new information. Substitutability value, a "cost savings option", increases with elasticity and price risk. However, the required premium to incrementally increase flexibility can in some cases decrease with an increase in risk. Variance is not always a measure of risk. Tools from stochastic dominance are newly applied to real options with convex payoffs to correct some misperceptions and clarify many common modeling situations that meet the criteria for increased variance to imply increased risk. The behavior of the cost savings option is explored subject to a stochastic input price process. At the point where costs are identical for all alternatives, the stochastic process for cost savings becomes deterministic, with savings directly proportional to elasticity of substitution and price variance. The option is also formulated as a derivative security via dynamic programming. The partial differential equation is solved for the special case of Cobb-Douglas (elasticity = 1) (also shown are linear (infinite elasticity), Leontief (elasticity = 0)). Risk aversion is insufficient to prefer a more flexible alternative with the same expected value. Intertemporal

Energy exotic options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaminski, V.; Gibner, S.; Pinnamaneni, K.

1999-01-01

This chapter with 88 references focuses on the use of exotic options to control exposure to energy prices. Exotic options are defined, and the conversion of a standard option into an exotic option and pricing models are examined. Pricing and hedging exotic options, path-dependent options, multi-commodity options, options on the minimum-or-maximum of two commodities, compound options, digital options, hybrid and complex structures, and natural gas daily options are described. Formulas for option pricing for vanilla, barrier, compound, options on minimum or maximum of two assets, and look back options are given in an appendix

Energy Recovery from the Organic Fraction of Municipal Solid Waste: A Real Options-Based Facility Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luigi Ranieri

2018-01-01

Full Text Available During the last years, due to the strict regulations on waste landfilling, anaerobic digestion (AD of the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW is increasingly considered a sustainable alternative for waste stabilization and energy recovery. AD can reduce the volume of OFMSW going to landfill and produce, at the same time, biogas and compost, all at a profit. The uncertainty about the collected quantity of organic fraction, however, may undermine the economic-financial sustainability of such plants. While the flexibility characterizing some AD technologies may prove very valuable in uncertain contexts since it allows adapting plant capacity to changing environments, the investment required for building flexible systems is generally higher than the investment for dedicated equipment. Hence, an adequate justification of investments in these flexible systems is needed. This paper presents the results of a study aimed at investigating how different technologies may perform from technical, economic and financial standpoints, in presence of an uncertain organic fraction quantity to be treated. Focusing on two AD treatment plant configurations characterized by a technological process with different degree of flexibility, a real options-based model is developed and then applied to the case of the urban waste management system of the Metropolitan Area of Bari (Italy. Results show the importance of pricing the flexibility of treatment plants, which becomes a critical factor in presence of an uncertain organic fraction. Hence, it has to be taken into consideration in the design phase of these plants.

Elementary real and complex analysis

CERN Document Server

Shilov, Georgi E

1996-01-01

In this book the renowned Russian mathematician Georgi E. Shilov brings his unique perspective to real and complex analysis, an area of perennial interest in mathematics. Although there are many books available on the topic, the present work is specially designed for undergraduates in mathematics, science and engineering. A high level of mathematical sophistication is not required.The book begins with a systematic study of real numbers, understood to be a set of objects satisfying certain definite axioms. The concepts of a mathematical structure and an isomorphism are introduced in Chapter 2,

Building Real-Time Collaborative Applications with a Federated Architecture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo Ojanguren-Menendez

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Real-time collaboration is being offered by multiple libraries and APIs (Google Drive Real-time API, Microsoft Real-Time Communications API, TogetherJS, ShareJS, rapidly becoming a mainstream option for webservices developers. However, they are offered as centralised services running in a single server, regardless if they are free/open source or proprietary software. After re-engineering Apache Wave (former Google Wave, we can now provide the first decentralised and federated free/open source alternative. The new API allows to develop new real-time collaborative web applications in both JavaScript and Java environments.

A Real Options Approach to Bankruptcy Costs: Evidence from Failed Commercial Banks During the 1990s

OpenAIRE

Joseph R. Mason

2005-01-01

Literature to date has identified three main aspects of liquidation time: firm size, asset specificity, and industry concentration. The present paper unifies the theory behind these three aspects of bankruptcy costs by treating them as components of a broader option valuation problem faced by the liquidating trustee. In the options valuation framework, at time t the trustee may choose to 1) liquidate at current asset values and incur a known loss, or 2) hold until the next period t+1 at a pos...

Systems engineering real estate development projects

Science.gov (United States)

Gusakova, Elena; Titarenko, Boris; Stepanov, Vitaliy

2017-10-01

In recent years, real estate development has accumulated a wealth of experience in implementing major projects, which requires comprehension and systematization. The scientific instrument of system engineering is studied in the article and is substantively interpreted with reference to real estate development projects. The most perspective approaches and models are substantiated, allowing strategically to plan the life cycle of the project as a whole, and also to solve the engineering butt problems of the project. The relevance of further scientific studies of regularities and specifics of the life cycle of real estate development projects conducted at the Moscow State University of Economics and Management at the ISTA department is shown.

Effluent treatment options for nuclear thermal propulsion system ground tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shipers, L.R.; Brockmann, J.E.

1992-01-01

A variety of approaches for handling effluent from nuclear thermal propulsion system ground tests in an environmentally acceptable manner are discussed. The functional requirements of effluent treatment are defined and concept options are presented within the framework of these requirements. System concepts differ primarily in the choice of fission-product retention and waste handling concepts. The concept options considered range from closed cycle (venting the exhaust to a closed volume or recirculating the hydrogen in a closed loop) to open cycle (real time processing and venting of the effluent). This paper reviews the strengths and weaknesses of different methods to handle effluent from nuclear thermal propulsion system ground tests

Comparison through a LCA evaluation analysis of food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Mi-Hyung; Kim, Jung-Wk

2010-01-01

This study evaluated feed manufacturing including dry feeding and wet feeding, composting, and landfilling for food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery. The method of the expanded system boundaries was employed in order to compare different by-products. The whole stages of disposal involved in the systems such as separate discharge, collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal, were included in the system boundary and evaluated. The Global Warming Potential generated from 1 tonne of food wastes for each disposal system was analyzed by the life cycle assessment method. The results showed that 200 kg of CO 2 -eq could be produced from dry feeding process, 61 kg of CO 2 -eq from wet feeding process, 123 kg of CO 2 -eq from composting process, and 1010 kg of CO 2 -eq from landfilling. Feed manufacturing and composting, the common treatment methods currently employed, have been known to be environment friendlier than other methods. However, this study shows that they can negatively affect the environment if their by-products are not appropriately utilized as intended.

Correlated continuous time random walk and option pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Lv, Longjin; Xiao, Jianbin; Fan, Liangzhong; Ren, Fuyao

2016-04-01

In this paper, we study a correlated continuous time random walk (CCTRW) with averaged waiting time, whose probability density function (PDF) is proved to follow stretched Gaussian distribution. Then, we apply this process into option pricing problem. Supposing the price of the underlying is driven by this CCTRW, we find this model captures the subdiffusive characteristic of financial markets. By using the mean self-financing hedging strategy, we obtain the closed-form pricing formulas for a European option with and without transaction costs, respectively. At last, comparing the obtained model with the classical Black-Scholes model, we find the price obtained in this paper is higher than that obtained from the Black-Scholes model. A empirical analysis is also introduced to confirm the obtained results can fit the real data well.

Erectile dysfunction management options in Nigeria.

Science.gov (United States)

Afolayan, Anthony Jide; Yakubu, Musa Toyin

2009-04-01

In Nigeria, the prevalence of erectile dysfunction (ED) among patients attending primary care clinics, age-standardized to the U.S. population in 2000 is 57.4%. This is considered high enough to warrant the attention of scientist for critical studies and analysis. The high ED prevalence is associated with etiologies such as psychosexual factors, chronic medical conditions, and some lifestyles. ED constitutes a major public health problem, influencing the patient's well-being and quality of life. It also leads to broken homes and marriages, psychological, social, and physical morbidity. To give an account of various ED management options in Nigeria. Review of peer-reviewed literature, questionnaire, and ethnobotanical survey to some indigenous herb sellers and herbalists. Cross cultural perspectives of ED management in Nigeria. The review suggests that traditional (phytotherapy, zootherapy, and occultism) and nontraditional, orthodox practice (drug therapy, psychological, and behavioral counseling) are applicable to ED management in Nigeria. This review should help in creating awareness into various options available for managing ED in the country, but does not recommend self medication of any form, be it the use of orthodox or herbal remedy.

20 CFR 416.2035 - Optional supplementation: Additional State options.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Optional supplementation: Additional State options. 416.2035 Section 416.2035 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL... § 416.2035 Optional supplementation: Additional State options. (a) Residency requirement. A State or...

Analysis of Options Contract, Option Pricing in Agricultural Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Tamidy

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Risk is an essential component in the production and sale of agricultural products. Due to the nature of agricultural products, the people who act in this area including farmers and businesspersons encounter unpredictable fluctuations of prices. On the other hand, the firms that process agricultural products also face fluctuation of price of agricultural inputs. Given that the Canola is considered as one of the inputs of product processing factories, control of unpredictable fluctuations of the price of this product would increase the possibility of correct decision making for farmers and managers of food processing industries. The best available tool for control and management of the price risk is the use of future markets and options. It is evident that the pricing is the main pillar in every trade. Therefore, offering a fair price for the options will be very important. In fact, options trading in the options market create cost insurance stopped. In this way, which can reduce the risks of deflation created in the future, if the person entitled to the benefits of the price increase occurs in the future. Unlike the futures, market where the seller had to deliver the product on time, in the options market, there is no such compulsion. In addition, this is one of the strengths of this option contract, because if there is not enough product for delivery to the futures market as result of chilling, in due course, the farmers suffer, but in the options market there will be a loss. In this study, the setup options of rape, as a product, as well as inputs has been paid for industry. Materials and Methods: In this section. The selection criteria of the disposal of asset base for valuation of European put options and call option is been introduced. That for obtain this purpose, some characteristics of the goods must considered: 1-Unpredictable fluctuations price of underlying asset 2 -large underlying asset cash market 3- The possibility

Feedback as Real-Time Constructions

Science.gov (United States)

Keiding, Tina Bering; Qvortrup, Ane

2014-01-01

This article offers a re-description of feedback and the significance of time in feedback constructions based on systems theory. It describes feedback as internal, real-time constructions in a learning system. From this perspective, feedback is neither immediate nor delayed, but occurs in the very moment it takes place. This article argues for a…

Cognitive and Affective Aspects of Creative Option Generation in Every Day Life Situations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Sophie Schweizer

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Which factors influence a human being’s ability to develop new perspectives and be creative? This ability is pivotal for any context in which new cognitions are required, such as innovative endeavors in science and art, or psychotherapeutic settings. In this article we seek to bring together two research programs investigating the generation of creative options: On the one hand, research on option generation in the decision-making literature and, on the other hand, cognitive and clinical creativity research. Previous decision-making research has largely neglected the topic of generating creative options. Experiments typically provided participants with a clear set of options to choose from, but everyday life situations are less structured and allow countless ways to react. Before choosing an option, agents have to self-generate a set of options to choose from. Such option generation processes have only recently moved to the center of attention. The present study examines the creative quality of self-generated options in daily life situations. A student sample (N = 48 generated options for action in 70 shortly described everyday life scenarios. We rated the quality of the options on three dimensions of creativity- originality, feasibility, and divergence - and linked these qualities to option generation fluency (speed and number of generated options, situational features like the familiarity and the affective valence of the situation in which the options were generated, and trait measures of cognitive performance. We found that when situations were familiar to the participant, greater negative affective valence of the situation was associated with more originality and divergence of generated options. We also found that a higher option generation fluency was associated with a greater maximal originality of options. We complete our article with a joint research agenda for researchers in the decision-making field focusing on option generation and

Economic assumptions for evaluating reactor-related options for managing plutonium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rothwell, G.

1996-01-01

This paper discusses the economic assumptions in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences' report, Management and Disposition of Excess Weapons Plutonium: Reactor-Related Options (1995). It reviews the Net Present Value approach for discounting and comparing the costs and benefits of reactor-related options. It argues that because risks associated with the returns to plutonium management are unlikely to be constant over time, it is preferable to use a real risk-free rate to discount cash flows and explicitly describe the probability distributions for costs and benefits, allowing decision makers to determine the risk premium of each option. As a baseline for comparison, it assumes that one economic benefit of changing the current plutonium management system is a reduction in on-going Surveillance and Maintenance (S and M) costs. This reduction in the present value of S and M costs can be compared with the discounted costs of each option. These costs include direct construction costs, indirect costs, operating costs minus revenues, and decontamination and decommissioning expenses. The paper also discusses how to conduct an uncertainty analysis. It finishes by summarizing conclusions and recommendations and discusses how these recommendations might apply to the evaluation of Russian plutonium management options. (author)

Automobiles and global warming: Alternative fuels and other options for carbon dioxide emissions reduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sagar, A.D.

1995-01-01

Automobiles are a source of considerable pollution at the global level, including a significant fraction of the total greenhouse gas emissions. Alternative fuels have received some attention as potential options to curtail the carbon dioxide emissions from motor vehicles. This article discusses the feasibility and desirability (from a technical as well as a broader environmental perspective) of the large-scale production and use of alternative fuels as a strategy to mitigate automotive carbon dioxide emissions. Other options such as improving vehicle efficiency and switching to more efficient modes of passenger transportation are also discussed. These latter options offer an effective and immediate way to tackle the greenhouse and other pollutant emission from automobiles, especially as the limitations of currently available alternative fuels and the technological and other constraints for potential future alternatives are revealed

Comparison between three option, four option and five option multiple choice question tests for quality parameters: A randomized study.

Science.gov (United States)

Vegada, Bhavisha; Shukla, Apexa; Khilnani, Ajeetkumar; Charan, Jaykaran; Desai, Chetna

2016-01-01

Most of the academic teachers use four or five options per item of multiple choice question (MCQ) test as formative and summative assessment. Optimal number of options in MCQ item is a matter of considerable debate among academic teachers of various educational fields. There is a scarcity of the published literature regarding the optimum number of option in each item of MCQ in the field of medical education. To compare three options, four options, and five options MCQs test for the quality parameters - reliability, validity, item analysis, distracter analysis, and time analysis. Participants were 3 rd semester M.B.B.S. students. Students were divided randomly into three groups. Each group was given one set of MCQ test out of three options, four options, and five option randomly. Following the marking of the multiple choice tests, the participants' option selections were analyzed and comparisons were conducted of the mean marks, mean time, validity, reliability and facility value, discrimination index, point biserial value, distracter analysis of three different option formats. Students score more ( P = 0.000) and took less time ( P = 0.009) for the completion of three options as compared to four options and five options groups. Facility value was more ( P = 0.004) in three options group as compared to four and five options groups. There was no significant difference between three groups for the validity, reliability, and item discrimination. Nonfunctioning distracters were more in the four and five options group as compared to three option group. Assessment based on three option MCQs is can be preferred over four option and five option MCQs.

Using life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis in a real options framework to inform the design of algal biofuel production facilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Kern, Jordan D; Hise, Adam M; Characklis, Greg W; Gerlach, Robin; Viamajala, Sridhar; Gardner, Robert D

2017-02-01

This study investigates the use of "real options analysis" (ROA) to quantify the value of greater product flexibility at algal biofuel production facilities. A deterministic optimization framework is integrated with a combined life cycle assessment/techno-economic analysis model and subjected to an ensemble of 30-year commodity price trajectories. Profits are maximized for two competing plant configurations: 1) one that sells lipid-extracted algae as animal feed only; and 2) one that can sell lipid-extracted algae as feed or use it to recover nutrients and energy, due to an up-front investment in anaerobic digestion/combined heat and power. Results show that added investment in plant flexibility does not result in an improvement in net present value, because current feed meal prices discourage use of lipid-extracted algae for nutrient and energy recovery. However, this study demonstrates that ROA provides many useful insights regarding plant design that cannot be captured via traditional techno-economic modeling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real-time embedded systems open-source operating systems perspective

CERN Document Server

Bertolotti, Ivan Cibrario

2012-01-01

From the Foreword: "!the presentation of real-time scheduling is probably the best in terms of clarity I have ever read in the professional literature. Easy to understand, which is important for busy professionals keen to acquire (or refresh) new knowledge without being bogged down in a convoluted narrative and an excessive detail overload. The authors managed to largely avoid theoretical-only presentation of the subject, which frequently affects books on operating systems. ! an indispensable [resource] to gain a thorough understanding of the real-time systems from the operating systems p

Real Time Pricing as a Default or Optional Service for C&ICustomers: A Comparative Analysis of Eight Case Studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Hopper,Nicole; Ting, Michael; Neenan, Bernie

2005-08-01

Demand response (DR) has been broadly recognized to be an integral component of well-functioning electricity markets, although currently underdeveloped in most regions. Among the various initiatives undertaken to remedy this deficiency, public utility commissions (PUC) and utilities have considered implementing dynamic pricing tariffs, such as real-time pricing (RTP), and other retail pricing mechanisms that communicate an incentive for electricity consumers to reduce their usage during periods of high generation supply costs or system reliability contingencies. Efforts to introduce DR into retail electricity markets confront a range of basic policy issues. First, a fundamental issue in any market context is how to organize the process for developing and implementing DR mechanisms in a manner that facilitates productive participation by affected stakeholder groups. Second, in regions with retail choice, policymakers and stakeholders face the threshold question of whether it is appropriate for utilities to offer a range of dynamic pricing tariffs and DR programs, or just ''plain vanilla'' default service. Although positions on this issue may be based primarily on principle, two empirical questions may have some bearing--namely, what level of price response can be expected through the competitive retail market, and whether establishing RTP as the default service is likely to result in an appreciable level of DR? Third, if utilities are to have a direct role in developing DR, what types of retail pricing mechanisms are most appropriate and likely to have the desired policy impact (e.g., RTP, other dynamic pricing options, DR programs, or some combination)? Given a decision to develop utility RTP tariffs, three basic implementation issues require attention. First, should it be a default or optional tariff, and for which customer classes? Second, what types of tariff design is most appropriate, given prevailing policy objectives, wholesale market

Was it a mistake to abandon the revision clause? Assessment of entrepreneurial flexibility in the German coal mining industry on the basis of real options; War die Aufgabe der Revisionsklausel ein Fehler? Beurteilung unternehmerischer Flexibilitaet im deutschen Steinkohlebergbau auf Basis von Realoptionen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bendiek, Ansgar

2012-07-15

The author analyzes the decision to abandon the revision clause, i.e. to abandon entrepreneurial flexibility on the basis of the option price theory and the use of derivatives in coal trading. The focus is on subventionless continuation of coal mining. It is found that the abandoning of the revision clause will involve a loss of value of the real option of about 819 million Euros. Politicians and the coal industry are advised to revise the subventionless continuation of coal mining by the end of 2015.

Dashboard visualizations: Supporting real-time throughput decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Franklin, Amy; Gantela, Swaroop; Shifarraw, Salsawit; Johnson, Todd R; Robinson, David J; King, Brent R; Mehta, Amit M; Maddow, Charles L; Hoot, Nathan R; Nguyen, Vickie; Rubio, Adriana; Zhang, Jiajie; Okafor, Nnaemeka G

2017-07-01

Providing timely and effective care in the emergency department (ED) requires the management of individual patients as well as the flow and demands of the entire department. Strategic changes to work processes, such as adding a flow coordination nurse or a physician in triage, have demonstrated improvements in throughput times. However, such global strategic changes do not address the real-time, often opportunistic workflow decisions of individual clinicians in the ED. We believe that real-time representation of the status of the entire emergency department and each patient within it through information visualizations will better support clinical decision-making in-the-moment and provide for rapid intervention to improve ED flow. This notion is based on previous work where we found that clinicians' workflow decisions were often based on an in-the-moment local perspective, rather than a global perspective. Here, we discuss the challenges of designing and implementing visualizations for ED through a discussion of the development of our prototype Throughput Dashboard and the potential it holds for supporting real-time decision-making. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Unmanned air vehicles - real time intelligence without the risk

OpenAIRE

Miller, James Bryan.

1988-01-01

Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) are capable of supporting the officer in tactical command (OTC) by gathering intelligence in real- or near real-time. UAVs now under development will be able to collect high-resolution imagery, and thus provide the OTC with the option of gathering tactical intelligence without using manned reconnaissance platforms. This thesis asserts that UAVs should be used to supplement existing intelligence sensors, particularly in those cases where current sources are too amb...

An investigation of dematerialization planning options at tourism destinations: Technical and behavioural dimensions

OpenAIRE

Kelly, Joseph

2006-01-01

The goal of this dissertation is to develop a conceptual framework and associated methods for evaluating alternative tourism planning strategies in terms of dematerialization and acceptability amongst tourists. Its objectives are to (1) examine the technical potential of dematerialization planning options in tourism destinations, (2) investigate tourist perspectives concerning destination planning alternatives that promote dematerialization, (3) assess the travel market responses and demateri...

Staged Financing in Venture capital market.

OpenAIRE

Damania, Priti

2009-01-01

The report shows the venture capital decision making in staged financing from a real option perspective. The report also describes entrepreneur-venture capital relationship from a prisoner's dilemma approach.

Stock and option portfolio using fuzzy logic approach

Science.gov (United States)

Sumarti, Novriana; Wahyudi, Nanang

2014-03-01

Fuzzy Logic in decision-making process has been widely implemented in various problems in industries. It is the theory of imprecision and uncertainty that was not based on probability theory. Fuzzy Logic adds values of degree between absolute true and absolute false. It starts with and builds on a set of human language rules supplied by the user. The fuzzy systems convert these rules to their mathematical equivalents. This could simplify the job of the system designer and the computer, and results in much more accurate representations of the way systems behave in the real world. In this paper we examine the decision making process of stock and option trading by the usage of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) technical analysis and Option Pricing with Fuzzy Logic approach. MACD technical analysis is for the prediction of the trends of underlying stock prices, such as bearish (going downward), bullish (going upward), and sideways. By using Fuzzy C-Means technique and Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System, we define the decision output where the value of MACD is high then decision is "Strong Sell", and the value of MACD is Low then the decision is "Strong Buy". We also implement the fuzzification of the Black-Scholes option-pricing formula. The stock and options methods are implemented on a portfolio of one stock and its options. Even though the values of input data, such as interest rates, stock price and its volatility, cannot be obtain accurately, these fuzzy methods can give a belief degree of the calculated the Black-Scholes formula so we can make the decision on option trading. The results show the good capability of the methods in the prediction of stock price trends. The performance of the simulated portfolio for a particular period of time also shows good return.

The application of option pricing theory to the evaluation of mining investment

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHANG Neng-fu(张能福); CAI Si-jing(蔡嗣经); LIU Chao-ma(刘朝马); TANG Rui(唐瑞)

2003-01-01

A rational evaluation on an investment project forms the basis of a right investment decision-making. The discounted cash flow (DCF for short) method is usually used as a traditional evaluation method for a project investment. However, as the mining investment is influenced by many uncertainties, DCF method cannot take into account these uncertainties and often underestimates the value of an investment project. Based on the option pricing theory of the modern financial assets, the characteristics of a real project investment are discussed, and the management option of mine managers and its pricing method are described.

Knowledge Management in Projects: Insights from two Perspectives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Karina Skovvang; Bukh, Per Nikolaj

2009-01-01

The article focuses on how managerial options in relation to development and sharing of knowledge in projects can be extended by analysing project management from two different, but complementary, knowledge management perspectives: an artefact-oriented and a process-oriented perspective. Further......, the article examines how a similar project management model is used in two different organisations and how its role in knowledge management differs dependent on other knowledge management initiatives and how the production processes are structured. Following the artefact-oriented perspective, the explicit...... dimension of knowledge can be captured, retrieved and reused using knowledge management systems. From the process-oriented perspective, focus is on the tacit or implicit dimension of knowledge and the context for understanding the information is more important. It is concluded that if a company offers...

Innovative options for structuring oil and gas agreements on First Nation lands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wells, M.D.

1999-01-01

The paper is developed from two perspectives, both of which are integral to the manner in which the paper's topic is viewed: a First Nation's perspective and a legal perspective. The paper is premised on two important points. The first is that the paper is presented only from a First Nation's perspective, not from the commonly understood 'Indians, Inuit and Metis', but from what has historically been considered as an 'Indian' perspective. The second premise is that the entirety of Aboriginal Lands is not dealt with, which are commonly understood to include reserve lands and Aboriginal title lands. With one exception, the discussion is concerned with options for structuring agreements to reserve lands which are defined as 'a tract of land, the legal title of which is vested in Her Majesty, that has been set apart by Her Majesty, for the use and benefit of the land'. It is important to understand the perspective First Nations have of their land and resources. And from a legal point of view, it is also important to understand the distinction between Aboriginal title lands and Indian Reserve lands. Integral to this understanding is an appreciation of the manner in which First Nations' title arises. The failure of the current legislative scheme to adequately protect First Nation interests and provide for their greater participation is understood and appreciated by the author

Real-time well condition monitoring in extended reach wells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kucs, R.; Spoerker, H.F. [OMV Austria Exploration and Production GmbH, Gaenserndorf (Austria); Thonhauser, G. [Montanuniversitaet Leoben (Austria)

2008-10-23

Ever rising daily operating cost for offshore operations make the risk of running into drilling problems due to torque and drag developments in extended reach applications a growing concern. One option to reduce cost related to torque and drag problems can be to monitor torque and drag trends in real time without additional workload on the platform drilling team. To evaluate observed torque or drag trends it is necessary to automatically recognize operations and to have a 'standard value' to compare the measurements to. The presented systematic approach features both options - fully automated operations recognition and real time analysis. Trends can be discussed between rig- and shore-based teams, and decisions can be based on up to date information. Since the system is focused on visualization of real-time torque and drag trends, instead of highly complex and repeated simulations, calculation time is reduced by comparing the real-time rig data against predictions imported from a commercial drilling engineering application. The system allows reacting to emerging stuck pipe situations or developing cuttings beds long before the situations become severe enough to result in substantial lost time. The ability to compare real-time data with historical data from the same or other wells makes the system a valuable tool in supporting a learning organization. The system has been developed in a joint research initiative for field application on the development of an offshore heavy oil field in New Zealand. (orig.)

Political-Philosophical Perspectives about the Notions of Indian, Inca, and Mestizo on the «Comentarios reales de los Incas»

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alejandro Javier Viveros Espinosa

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This essay posits certain political-philosophical perspectives on the Inca Garcilaso de la Vega’s Primera parte de los Comentarios reales de los Incas (1609. To this purpose we will develop two hermeneutical movements. The first refers to a theoretical and methodological questioning related to the notion of Indian as a discursive construction during colonial times in the Andes area. The second deploys a critical exercise grounded on the interaction between the notions of Indian, Inca, and Mestizo, which is focused on how they build alternative subjectivities. Both movements consolidate an interpretation about the Inca Garcilaso’s political-philosophical reflections, remarking his proposals of a bifurcated modern civilizational project in the New World.

Ecological Perspectives in HCI

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blevis, Eli; Bødker, Susanne; Flach, John

The aim of the workshop is to provide a forum for researchers and practitioners to discuss the present and future of ecological perspectives in HCI. The participants will reflect on the current uses and interpretations of “ecology” and related concepts in the field. The workshop will assess the p...... the potential of ecological perspectives in HCI for supporting rich and meaningful analysis, as well as innovative design, of interactive technologies in real-life contexts......The aim of the workshop is to provide a forum for researchers and practitioners to discuss the present and future of ecological perspectives in HCI. The participants will reflect on the current uses and interpretations of “ecology” and related concepts in the field. The workshop will assess...

Dynamic Reconfiguration in Real-Time Systems Energy, Performance, and Thermal Perspectives

CERN Document Server

Wang, Weixun; Ranka, Sanjay

2013-01-01

Given the widespread use of real-time multitasking systems, there are tremendous optimization opportunities if reconfigurable computing can be effectively incorporated while maintaining performance and other design constraints of typical applications. The focus of this book is to describe the dynamic reconfiguration techniques that can be safely used in real-time systems. This book provides comprehensive approaches by considering synergistic effects of computation, communication as well as storage together to significantly improve overall performance, power, energy and temperature.  Provides a comprehensive introduction to optimization and dynamic reconfiguration techniques in real-time embedded systems; Covers state-of-the-art techniques and ongoing research in reconfigurable architectures; Focuses on algorithms tuned for dynamic reconfiguration techniques in real-time systems;  Provides reference for anyone designing low-power systems, energy-/temperature-constrained devices, and power-performance efficie...

Comparison through a LCA evaluation analysis of food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Mi-Hyung, E-mail: mhkim9@snu.ac.kr [Department of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Sillim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jung-Wk, E-mail: kimjw@snu.ac.kr [Department of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Sillim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of)

2010-09-01

This study evaluated feed manufacturing including dry feeding and wet feeding, composting, and landfilling for food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery. The method of the expanded system boundaries was employed in order to compare different by-products. The whole stages of disposal involved in the systems such as separate discharge, collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal, were included in the system boundary and evaluated. The Global Warming Potential generated from 1 tonne of food wastes for each disposal system was analyzed by the life cycle assessment method. The results showed that 200 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq could be produced from dry feeding process, 61 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq from wet feeding process, 123 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq from composting process, and 1010 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq from landfilling. Feed manufacturing and composting, the common treatment methods currently employed, have been known to be environment friendlier than other methods. However, this study shows that they can negatively affect the environment if their by-products are not appropriately utilized as intended.

Value adding management of hospital real estate : Balancing between different stakeholders’ perspectives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Zwart, J.; van der Voordt, D.J.M.

2013-01-01

In addition to cost effectiveness, possible contributions of real estate to organisational performance are incorporated in strategic corporate real estate management nowadays more and more. This paper explores the concept of adding value by real estate and how this concept is being applied in design

REAL ESTATE PURCHASE AGREEMENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bujorel FLOREA

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The study presented herein represents a field with good present and future perspectives, especially because real estate property is not under the incidence of a single normative act regarding the sale-purchase agreement of such goods, and given the fact that there are specific legal provisions with respect to various real estate categories and the localization of such property. The article deals with the sale-purchase agreement of various real estate categories, such as fields, buildings, the correspondent lots, urban area, farm, and forests fields, focusing on some particularities. A special care is attributed to examining the applicable laws with regard to the purchase agreements of field lands, the special conditions to be taken into account, the persons that may act as buyers, including foreigners, those without citizenship, and legal persons of a nationality other than Romanian. Finally, a special concern is given to the formalities required for legally exerting the pre-emptive right and the applicable sanctions in that respect.

Research of real-time communication software

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Maotang; Guo, Jingbo; Liu, Yuzhong; Li, Jiahong

2003-11-01

Real-time communication has been playing an increasingly important role in our work, life and ocean monitor. With the rapid progress of computer and communication technique as well as the miniaturization of communication system, it is needed to develop the adaptable and reliable real-time communication software in the ocean monitor system. This paper involves the real-time communication software research based on the point-to-point satellite intercommunication system. The object-oriented design method is adopted, which can transmit and receive video data and audio data as well as engineering data by satellite channel. In the real-time communication software, some software modules are developed, which can realize the point-to-point satellite intercommunication in the ocean monitor system. There are three advantages for the real-time communication software. One is that the real-time communication software increases the reliability of the point-to-point satellite intercommunication system working. Second is that some optional parameters are intercalated, which greatly increases the flexibility of the system working. Third is that some hardware is substituted by the real-time communication software, which not only decrease the expense of the system and promotes the miniaturization of communication system, but also aggrandizes the agility of the system.

Female pattern alopecia: current perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Lauren L; Emer, Jason J

2013-01-01

Hair loss is a commonly encountered problem in clinical practice, with men presenting with a distinctive pattern involving hairline recession and vertex balding (Norwood-Hamilton classification) and women exhibiting diffuse hair thinning over the crown (increased part width) and sparing of the frontal hairline (Ludwig classification). Female pattern hair loss has a strikingly overwhelming psychological effect; thus, successful treatments are necessary. Difficulty lies in successful treatment interventions, as only two medications – minoxidil and finasteride – are approved for the treatment of androgenetic alopecia, and these medications offer mediocre results, lack of a permanent cure, and potential complications. Hair transplantation is the only current successful permanent option, and it requires surgical procedures. Several other medical options, such as antiandrogens (eg, spironolactone, oral contraceptives, cyproterone, flutamide, dutasteride), prostaglandin analogs (eg, bimatoprost, latanoprost), and ketoconazole are reported to be beneficial. Laser and light therapies have also become popular despite the lack of a profound benefit. Management of expectations is crucial, and the aim of therapy, given the current therapeutic options, is to slow or stop disease progression with contentment despite patient expectations of permanent hair regrowth. This article reviews current perspectives on therapeutic options for female pattern hair loss. PMID:24039457

Should France invest in new nuclear technology? The enhancement of the EPR project using 'real option' method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Epaulard, A.; Gallon, St.

2000-01-01

The mathematical tools developed to enhance financial options can also be used to calculate the economics value of investment projects which offer flexibility but whose return is uncertain (like options offered on the stock exchange). In this article, an enhancement method of this kind is applied to a construction project (in 2000) for an EPR nuclear prototype. This prototype will make it possible to use EPR to renew the French electrical infrastructure in 2020 (flexibility), but its economic value will depend upon competitiveness vis-a-vis other production methods available at this time (hence an uncertain return). We demonstrate that investing in EPR technology in 2000 will provide sufficient flexibility in 2020 to be considered profitable, even though it is improbable that the EPR technology will be used at the end of this period. The investment agreed in 2000 to expand EPR technology therefore effectively has the role of an option, or of an insurance policy (guaranteeing against the risk that traditional electricity production methods will be expensive in 2020). (authors)

An exploration of the option space in student design projects for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis with performance simulation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Struck, C.; Wilde, de P.J.C.J.; Hopfe, C.J.; Hensen, J.L.M.

2008-01-01

This paper describes research conducted to gather empirical evidence on extent, character and content of the option space in building design projects, from the perspective of a climate engineer using building performance simulation for concept evaluation. The goal is to support uncertainty analysis

Adoption and perspectives of precision farming in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Søren Marcus; Fountas, Spyros; Blackmore, Simon

2004-01-01

Precision farming (PF) and site-specific input application based on GPS has been a management tool and option for arable farmers for about 10 years. About 400 Danish farmers have already adopted some PF-practices on their farms. This adoption and the technical and economic perspectives of PF have...

REAL-LIFE ACTIVITIES: BOOSTING MY STUDENTS’ AWARENESS OF HONESTY IN CREATING GENRE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rr. Dewi Wahyu Mustikasari

2017-04-01

Full Text Available My students was strugled to write genre without copypasting sentences or texts from the internet. On the other hand, it was a huge challange for me to teach five big writing classes. Each class consisted of 25-30 students who tended (mostly collecting unoriginal writing works. This paper discusses the real-life activities that can be used to enhance my students’ aweareness of honesty in creating genre. My students must write some genres namely recount, descriptive (optional, spoof (optional, procedure, hortatory (optional and analytical exposition (optional text. I also took some benefits of ICT to equip the learning process. Browsing and experiencing the menu of premierskills.britishcouncil.org were the real-life activities that explore their personal memories to be told as the recount text. Then they defined the feature of one of the menu of the previous website to be informed as the descriptive text. Furthermore, they wrote their personal funny experiences which were related to the Indonesian culture as the spoof text. The procedure text can be produced by exploring the daily activities in the pictures such as how to make a cup of tea/coffee, cook a sunny side-up egg, insert sim card into mobile phone, etc. Next, my students visited the tourism and public places in Salatiga, and they observed the strength and weekness of those places as the production of hortatory or analytical exposition text. The real-life activities were able to foster my students’ awareness of honesty. It was fantastic that my students were able to create the genre honestly.

Representing real time semantics for distributed application integration

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Poon, P.M.S.; Dillon, T.S.; Chang, E.; Feng, L.

Traditional real time system design and development are driven by technological requirements. With the ever growing complexity of requirements and the advances in software design, the alignment of focus has gradually been shifted to the perspective of business and industrial needs. This paper

HIV-positive pregnant and postpartum women's perspectives about Option B+ in Malawi: a qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Katirayi, Leila; Namadingo, Hazel; Phiri, Mafayo; Bobrow, Emily A; Ahimbisibwe, Allan; Berhan, Aida Yemane; Buono, Nicole; Moland, Karen Marie; Tylleskär, Thorkild

2016-01-01

The implementation of lifelong antiretroviral treatment (ART) for all pregnant women (Option B+) in Malawi has resulted in a significant increase in the number of HIV-positive pregnant women initiating treatment. However, research has highlighted the challenge of retaining newly initiated women in care. This study explores barriers and facilitators that affect a woman's decision to initiate and to adhere to Option B+. A total of 39 in-depth interviews and 16 focus group discussions were conducted. Eligible women were ≥18 years old, living with HIV and either pregnant and receiving antenatal care from a study site or had delivered a child within the last 18 months, breastfed their child and received services at one of the study sites. Eligible women were identified by healthcare workers (HCWs) in the antenatal clinic and ART unit. Focus groups were also conducted with HCWs employed in these departments. Qualitative data were analyzed using Maxqda version 10 (VERBI Software, Berlin, Germany). The general perception towards the drug regimen used in Option B+ was positive; women reported fewer side effects and acknowledged the positive benefits of ART. Women felt hopeful about prolonging their life and having an HIV-uninfected baby, yet grappled with the fact that ART is a lifelong commitment. Women and HCWs discussed challenges with the counselling services for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission under the new Option B+ guidelines, and many women struggled with initiating ART on the same day as learning their HIV status. Women wanted to discuss their circumstances with their husbands first, receive a CD4 count and obtain an HIV test at another facility to confirm their HIV status. HCWs expressed concern that women might just agree to take the drugs to please them. HCWs also discussed concerns around loss to follow-up and drug resistance. Although Option B+ has significantly increased the number of women initiating ART, there are still challenges that need

Real options theory to the pricing of allowances contract to carbon emission; Teoria de opcoes reais para a precificacao de contrato de permissoes de emissao de carbono

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Horii, Leticia Takahashi; Parente, Virginia; Goldemberg, Jose [Universidade de Sao Paulo (IEE/USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia

2010-07-01

The objective of this work is to develop a pricing model contract for allowances to emit carbon through Real Options. Emissions allowances are equivalent tons of carbon traded between Annex I countries from companies that have the ability to reduce their emissions beyond what is assigned to it. The surplus of emission reductions produced by these companies may be sold in the emissions market. Thus, this work can contribute to improving the management of contractual risk and enable companies estimated the price at which a contract can be signed. Properly evaluate the contracts that the market environment is a challenge for companies. The historic low of information and randomness in the price of carbon allowances in the spot market suggest extreme caution in its use. (author)

Exotic Options: a Chooser Option and its Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raimonda Martinkutė-Kaulienė

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Financial instruments traded in the markets and investors’ situation in such markets are getting more and more complex. This leads to more complex derivative structures used for hedging that are harder to analyze and which risk is harder managed. Because of the complexity of these instruments, the basic characteristics of many exotic options may sometimes be not clearly understood. Most scientific studies have been focused on developing models for pricing various types of exotic options, but it is important to study their unique characteristics and to understand them correctly in order to use them in proper market situations. The paper examines main aspects of options, emphasizing the variety of exotic options and their place in financial markets and risk management process. As the exact valuation of exotic options is quite difficult, the article deals with the theoretical and practical aspects of pricing of chooser options that suggest a broad range of usage and application in different market conditions. The calculations made in the article showed that the price of the chooser is closely correlated with the choice time and low correlated with its strike price. So the first mentioned factor should be taken into consideration when making appropriate hedging and investing decisions.

RISK AND RETURN IN THE REAL ESTATE, BOND AND STOCK MARKETS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wolski Rafał

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Studies investigating the relation between risk and return occupy an important place in the discussion about the effectiveness of investing in real estate. A review of the available studies shows that real estate investments are less profitable than stocks, but in terms of risk and return, are usually the best option. This worldwide regularity may not necessarily be presented in Poland, as the Polish market is not fully fledged yet. The analysis presented in this article was performed with a view to reducing a research gap resulting from the lack of comprehensive Polish studies in this field. In the article, data spanning the years from 2006 to 2016 are examined by means of descriptive statistics, measures of risk, and the analysis of variance (ANOVA to determine which of the following investment vehicles - bonds, real estate or stocks - offer the best risk-return ratio. The article has two parts. The analytical part is a review of studies on risk measurement methods and of earlier studies investigating risk and return by a class of assets (particularly real estate. In the empirical part, assets are compared with the use of statistical methods. The results of the risk-return analysis point to the money market as the best option for investors. Stocks and real estate ranked second and third, respectively.

Dedicating new real estate transfer taxes for energy efficiency: A revenue option for scaling up Green Retrofit Programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lester, T. William

2013-01-01

As the labor market in the U.S. remains weak, with high unemployment and sluggish job growth, policymakers at various levels of government are looking for new ways to support job growth and investment during an increasingly tight fiscal climate. Policies that promote the “Green Economy” in general and energy efficiency in particular remain politically popular as potential win–win solutions that will create jobs and curb greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, efforts to promote energy efficiency in the residential sector through rebates and incentives alone have yet to reach critical mass. This paper outlines a policy option for state and local governments to use real estate transfer taxes to generate stronger incentives for home buyers to undertake significant retrofit projects at the time of sale. The economic impact of the proposed energy efficiency transfer tax (EETT) is then modeled for the State of North Carolina, using standard input–output techniques. Ultimately, based on housing sales figures from 2010, a new EETT of 2.5 percent on home purchases would generate a net positive increase of approximately 3485 direct construction jobs and 5900 annually total jobs for the state. -- Highlights: •Proposes an Energy Efficiency Transfer Tax (EETT) to catalyze residential retrofits. •Models household behavioral response to an EETT. •Estimates induced energy efficiency investment levels in North Carolina. •Calculates net employment impacts of a hypothetical EETT. •Finds net impact of 5900 jobs and over $350 million in additional investment

Euclidean distance degrees of real algebraic groups

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baaijens, J.A.; Draisma, J.

2015-01-01

We study the problem of finding, in a real algebraic matrix group, the matrix closest to a given data matrix. We do so from the algebro-geometric perspective of Euclidean distance degrees. We recover several classical results; and among the new results that we prove is a formula for the Euclidean

Euclidean distance degrees of real algebraic groups

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baaijens, J.A.; Draisma, J.

2014-01-01

We study the problem of finding, in a real algebraic matrix group, the matrix closest to a given data matrix. We do so from the algebro-geometric perspective of Euclidean distance degrees. We recover several classical results; and among the new results that we prove is a formula for the Euclidean

Valuation of marginal CO2 abatement options for electric power plants in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Hojeong; Lim, Jaekyu

2009-01-01

The electricity generation sector in Korea is under pressure to mitigate greenhouse gases as directed by the Kyoto Protocol. The principal compliance options for power companies under the cap-and-trade include the application of direct CO 2 emission abatement and the procurement of emission allowances. The objective of this paper is to provide an analytical framework for assessing the cost-effectiveness of these options. We attempt to derive the marginal abatement cost for CO 2 using the output distance function and analyze the relative advantages of emission allowance procurement option as compared to direct abatement option. Real-option approach is adopted to incorporate emission allowance price uncertainty. Empirical result shows the marginal abatement cost with an average of Euro 14.04/ton CO 2 for fossil-fueled power plants and confirms the existence of substantial cost heterogeneity among plants which is sufficient to achieve trading gains in allowance market. The comparison of two options enables us to identify the optimal position of the compliance for each plant. Sensitivity analyses are also presented with regard to several key parameters including the initial allowance prices and interest rate. The result of this paper may help Korean power plants to prepare for upcoming regulations targeted toward the reduction of domestic greenhouse gases.

Incorporation of Outcome-Based Contract Requirements in a Real Options Approach for Maintenance Planning

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-30

corrective maintenance (which increases as the RUL is used up), while maximizing the revenue earned during the RUL (which increases as the RUL is used up...running the system to failure, then performing corrective maintenance The value from exercising the option is the sum of the cumulative revenue loss...and the avoided corrective maintenance cost. The cumulative revenue loss is what the system would earn between the predictive maintenance event and

Using real objects to teach about climate change: an ethnographic perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Conner, L.; Perin, S.; Coats, V.; Sturm, M.

2017-12-01

Informal educators frequently use real objects to connect visitors with science content that can otherwise seem abstract. Our NSF-funded project, "Hot Times in Cold Places," leverages this premise to teach about climate change through real objects associated with the nation's only permafrost tunnel, located in Fox, Alaska. We posit that touching real ice, holding Pleistocene bones, and seeing ice wedges in context allows learners to understand climate change in a direct and visceral manner. We are conducting ethnographic research to understand visitor experience at both the tunnel itself and at a permafrost museum exhibit that we are creating as part of the project. Research questions include: 1) What is the nature of visitor talk with respect to explanations about permafrost, tipping points, climate change, and geological time? 2) How do attributes of "realness" (scale, resolution, uniqueness, history and adherence to an original) affect visitor's experience of objects, as perceived through the senses and emotions? We use naturalistic observation, interviews, and videotaping to answer these questions. Analysis focuses on child-to-child talk, reciprocal talk between educator and child, and reciprocal talk between parent and child. Our results elucidate the value of real, vs. replicated and virtual objects, in informal learning, especially in the context of climate change education. An understanding of these factors can help informal learning educators make informed choices about program and exhibit design.

Effects of Real-Time Visual Feedback on Pre-Service Teachers' Singing

Science.gov (United States)

Leong, S.; Cheng, L.

2014-01-01

This pilot study focuses on the use real-time visual feedback technology (VFT) in vocal training. The empirical research has two aims: to ascertain the effectiveness of the real-time visual feedback software "Sing & See" in the vocal training of pre-service music teachers and the teachers' perspective on their experience with…

El rol estratégico de las opciones reales

OpenAIRE

Orellana Villeda, José Giovanni

2011-01-01

El análisis del Real Options Approach o ROA como también serán llamadas adelante, establece, una forma de cómo determinar el valor de la flexibilidad en las decisiones futuras. Está herramienta sofisticada constituye, un soporte al presupuesto de capital la cual no ha sido completamente explotada, por los gerentes, debido, a diversos aspectos pedagógicos. Las opciones reales permiten estructurar el pensamiento de manera estratégica. Y es precisamente, este argumento que ha motivado el desarro...

Real-time interactive treatment planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otto, Karl

2014-01-01

The goal of this work is to develop an interactive treatment planning platform that permits real-time manipulation of dose distributions including DVHs and other dose metrics. The hypothesis underlying the approach proposed here is that the process of evaluating potential dose distribution options and deciding on the best clinical trade-offs may be separated from the derivation of the actual delivery parameters used for the patient’s treatment. For this purpose a novel algorithm for deriving an Achievable Dose Estimate (ADE) was developed. The ADE algorithm is computationally efficient so as to update dose distributions in effectively real-time while accurately incorporating the limits of what can be achieved in practice. The resulting system is a software environment for interactive real-time manipulation of dose that permits the clinician to rapidly develop a fully customized 3D dose distribution. Graphical navigation of dose distributions is achieved by a sophisticated method of identifying contributing fluence elements, modifying those elements and re-computing the entire dose distribution. 3D dose distributions are calculated in ∼2–20 ms. Including graphics processing overhead, clinicians may visually interact with the dose distribution (e.g. ‘drag’ a DVH) and display updates of the dose distribution at a rate of more than 20 times per second. Preliminary testing on various sites shows that interactive planning may be completed in ∼1–5 min, depending on the complexity of the case (number of targets and OARs). Final DVHs are derived through a separate plan optimization step using a conventional VMAT planning system and were shown to be achievable within 2% and 4% in high and low dose regions respectively. With real-time interactive planning trade-offs between Target(s) and OARs may be evaluated efficiently providing a better understanding of the dosimetric options available to each patient in static or adaptive RT. (paper)

Australian Asian Options

OpenAIRE

Manuel Moreno; Javier F. Navas

2003-01-01

We study European options on the ratio of the stock price to its average and viceversa. Some of these options are traded in the Australian Stock Exchange since 1992, thus we call them Australian Asian options. For geometric averages, we obtain closed-form expressions for option prices. For arithmetic means, we use different approximations that produce very similar results.

Economic valuation of a toll road concession with traffic guarantees and the abandonment option

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frances Fischberg Blank

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Governments worldwide have been encouraging private participation in transportation infrastructure. To increase the feasibility of a project, public-private partnership (PPP may include guarantees or other support to reduce the risks for private investors. It is necessary to value these opportunities under a real options framework and thereby analyze the project's economic feasibility and risk allocation. However, within this structure, sponsors have an implicit option to abandon the project that should be simultaneously valued. Thus, this article proposes a hypothetical toll road concession in Brazil with a minimum traffic guarantee, a maximum traffic ceiling, and an implicit abandonment option. Different combinations of the minimum and maximum levels are presented, resulting in very high or even negative value added to the net present value (NPV. The abandonment option impacts the level of guarantee to be given. Governments should calibrate an optimal level of guarantees to avoid unnecessarily high costs, protect the returns of the sponsor, and lower the probability of abandonment.

Survey and selection of assessment methodologies for GAVE options; Inventarisatie en selectie van beoordelingsmethodieken voor GAVE-opties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weterings, R. [ed.] [TNO Milieu, Energie en Procesinnovatie TNO-MEP, Apeldoorn (Netherlands)

1999-05-01

The Dutch government is interested in the possibilities for a market introduction of new gaseous and liquid energy carriers. To this purpose the GAVE-programme was recently set up. This study is carried out within the framework of the GAVE-programme and aims at the selection of methodologies for assessing the technological, economic, ecological and social perspectives of these new energy options (so-called GAVE-options). Based on the results of these assessments the Dutch ministries of Housing, Planning and Environment (VROM) and Economic Affairs (EZ) will decide at the end of 1999 about starting demonstration projects of promising energy carriers.

Stata 8 Graphics: Options, sub-options and sub-sub-options

OpenAIRE

Tim Collier

2005-01-01

Stata 8 graphics have changed out of all recognition from that available in earlier versions. It was not just that a whole new array of options and sub-options were introduced, but the graph syntax itself completely changed. Just trying to produce a simple plot of x against y using Stata 7 syntax (graph x y) produced bewildering error messages e.g. xgraph_g.new y: class member function not found r(4023) and the like. If you did succeed in working out the new syntax (graph twoway scatter x y) ...

Economic feasibility of high-temperature reactors for industrial cogeneration. An investor's perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hampe, Jona; Madlener, Reinhard

2016-01-01

This paper studies the economic potential of using high-temperature nuclear reactors (HTRs) for cogeneration of industrial process heat and electricity. A reference case HTR is found to deliver cost-competitive process heat with temperatures of ≥200°C, rendering the chemical and pulp and paper industries potential candidates. The reference case investment yields a positive net present value of €304 million. Real options analysis is employed to account for the uncertain environment and the resulting managerial flexibilities of the project. A real option model for optimal investment timing is adapted to HTRs for industrial cogeneration. The value of the option to invest in an HTR is determined at €667 million and the electricity price threshold for an optimal investment at 79 €/MWh. Though the option to invest in an HTR represents a significant value for a utility, the investment should be delayed until the electricity price has reached the threshold value. We also propose a model to calculate the option value of switching between two different operating modes (cogeneration vs. electricity only). For the reference case, this option value turns out to be €85 million. (author)

The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of the Malagasy Franc; Estimation and Assessment

OpenAIRE

John Cady

2003-01-01

Employing cointegration techniques, the long-run determinants of Madagascar's real exchange rate are examined from a stock-flow perspective. The long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate is explained by the net foreign asset position and factors affecting trade flows. An index of the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate is developed to assess the degree of misalignment. The general conclusions are that the Malagasy franc has experienced significant misalignment in the past, but...

Assessment of alternative fuel and powertrain transit bus options using real-world operations data: Life-cycle fuel and emissions modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Yanzhi; Gbologah, Franklin E.; Lee, Dong-Yeon; Liu, Haobing; Rodgers, Michael O.; Guensler, Randall L.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We present a practical fuel and emissions modeling tool for alternative fuel buses. • The model assesses well-to-wheels emissions impacts of bus fleet decisions. • Mode-based approach is used to account for duty cycles and local conditions. • A case study using real-world operations data from Atlanta, GA is presented. • Impacts of alternative bus options depend on operating and geographic features. - Abstract: Hybrid and electric powertrains and alternative fuels (e.g., compressed natural gas (CNG), biodiesel, or hydrogen) can often reduce energy consumption and emissions from transit bus operations relative to conventional diesel. However, the magnitude of these energy and emissions savings can vary significantly, due to local conditions and transit operating characteristics. This paper introduces the transit Fuel and Emissions Calculator (FEC), a mode-based life-cycle emissions modeling tool for transit bus and rail technologies that compares the performance of multiple alternative fuels and powertrains across a range of operational characteristics and conditions. The purpose of the FEC is to provide a practical, yet technically sophisticated tool for regulatory agencies and policy analysts in assessing transit fleet options. The FEC’s modal modeling approach estimates emissions as a function of engine load, which in turn is a function of transit service parameters, including duty cycle (idling and speed-acceleration profile), road grade, and passenger loading. This approach allows for customized assessments that account for local conditions. Direct emissions estimates are derived from the scaled tractive power (STP) operating mode bins and emissions factors employed in the U.S. EPA’s MOVES (MOtor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) model. Life-cycle emissions estimates are calculated using emissions factors from the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model. The case study presented in this paper

ACCOUNTING FOR OPTIONS AND ANALYSIS OF USE OF OPTION COMBINATION STRATEGIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Derun

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The article deals with problems of accounting for options in Ukraine, namely: value expression of initial cost of options, their revaluation, accounting of premiums, financial assets and financial liabilities and variation margin. The paper offers ways of solution of these problems which based on harmonization with IAS 32, IAS 39, IFRS 7 and IFRS 9. The study considers option combination strategies (straddle, strangle, strap, strip and approaches of identification of possible financial results for investors which use these strategies. Examples of possible financial results are provided for buyers and sellers of options which use option combination strategies.

Rehabilitation Options

Science.gov (United States)

... Speech Pathology Occupational Therapy Art Therapy Recreational therapy Neuropsychology Home Care Options Advanced Care Planning Palliative Care ... Speech Pathology Occupational Therapy Art Therapy Recreational therapy Neuropsychology Home Care Options Advanced Care Planning Palliative Care ...

Feasibility analysis in the expansion proposal of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde: application of real options, binomial model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hernandez I, S.; Ortiz C, E.; Chavez M, C.

2011-11-01

At the present time, is an unquestionable fact that the nuclear electrical energy is a topic of vital importance, no more because eliminates the dependence of the hydrocarbons and is friendly with the environment, but because is also a sure and reliable energy source, and represents a viable alternative before the claims in the growing demand of electricity in Mexico. Before this panorama, was intended several scenarios to elevate the capacity of electric generation of nuclear origin with a variable participation. One of the contemplated scenarios is represented by the expansion project of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde through the addition of a third reactor that serves as detonator of an integral program that proposes the installation of more nuclear reactors in the country. Before this possible scenario, the Federal Commission of Electricity like responsible organism of supplying energy to the population should have tools that offer it the flexibility to be adapted to the possible changes that will be presented along the project and also gives a value to the risk to future. The methodology denominated Real Options, Binomial model was proposed as an evaluation tool that allows to quantify the value of the expansion proposal, demonstrating the feasibility of the project through a periodic visualization of their evolution, all with the objective of supplying a financial analysis that serves as base and justification before the evident apogee of the nuclear energy that will be presented in future years. (Author)

Contextual effects and psychological features influencing decoy options: A review and research agenda

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Gonzalez-Prieto

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop future research proposals aiming to contribute the extant theory which explains decoy effects.Design/methodology/approach: Firstly, a review of the existing literature about decoy options and its interactions with contextual effects that could affect their performance is presented. Next, two research proposals are presented: the introduction of a double decoy choice set and the evaluation of decoy effect under different levels of cognitive effort in a purchasing process.Findings and Originality/value: For the research proposal concerning double decoy choice sets, different hypothesis are introduced based on the different theories aiming to explain the effect of simple decoy choice sets. This hypothesis predict different outcomes for the same experimental design, fact that could provide further support for at least one of the current explanations for decoy effects. Regarding the effect of decoy options under different levels of cognitive effort, implications for experimental design for sequential purchasing process are expected. Especially for those designed with complex options, with many steps or high number of options.Originality/value: Two new research proposal approaches are presented in order enhance the current theory. Moreover, both have managerial implications concerning the real usage of decoy options in reduced choice sets as well as in sequential purchasing processes.

Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy : toward real-time quantification of steatosis in liver

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Evers, Daniel J.; Westerkamp, Andrie C.; Spliethoff, Jarich W.; Pully, Vishnu V.; Hompes, Daphne; Hendriks, Benno H. W.; Prevoo, Warner; van Velthuysen, Marie-Louise F.; Porte, Robert J.; Ruers, Theo J. M.

Assessment of fatty liver grafts during orthotopic liver transplantation is a challenge due to the lack of real-time analysis options during surgery. Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) could be a new diagnostic tool to quickly assess steatosis. Eight hundred and seventy-eight optical

5 CFR 870.705 - Amount and election of Option B and Option C.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Amount and election of Option B and Option C. 870.705 Section 870.705 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED... Compensationers § 870.705 Amount and election of Option B and Option C. (a) The number of multiples of Option B...

STOCK PRICES, 1900-1995: THE REAL AND NOMINAL STORY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenneth Weiher

2000-01-01

Full Text Available Prompted by the inflation-adjusted Dow Jones Industrials Average setting its first record high in almost thirty years in 1995, this paper studies the impact of inflation on nominal and real stock prices from a theoretical, historical, and empirical perspective. While stocks are an excellent longterm hedge against inflation, nominal stock prices stagnate and real stock prices fall during a period of rapid inflation. Both nominal and real stockprices then go through a catch-up phase during the subsequent disinflation period. The history for this century is consistent with this pattern. Regression analysis between real and nominal stock prices as the dependent variables and inflation as the independent variable shows statistically significant evidence that (a nominal stock returns are positively related to inflation while real stock returns are not; and (b both nominal and real stock returns are negatively related to accelerations of inflation and positively related to decelerations.

Software for Real-Time Light Shaping and BioPhotonics Applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Separa, Stephen Daedalus; Glückstad, Jesper; Banas, Andrew Rafael

2018-01-01

We design and implement a software for use in real-time light shaping and biophotonics applications. Design considerations are addressed as well as options to mitigate common performance issues that arise in actual use. Testing was done on actual spatial light modulator hardware at 800x600 and 20...

The Amnesiac Lookback Option: Selectively Monitored Lookback Options and Cryptocurrencies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ho-Chun Herbert Chang

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This study proposes a strategy to make the lookback option cheaper and more practical, and suggests the use of its properties to reduce risk exposure in cryptocurrency markets through blockchain enforced smart contracts and correct for informational inefficiencies surrounding prices and volatility. This paper generalizes partial, discretely-monitored lookback options that dilute premiums by selecting a subset of specified periods to determine payoff, which we call amnesiac lookback options. Prior literature on discretely-monitored lookback options considers the number of periods and assumes equidistant lookback periods in pricing partial lookback options. This study by contrast considers random sampling of lookback periods and compares resulting payoff of the call, put and spread options under floating and fixed strikes. Amnesiac lookbacks are priced with Monte Carlo simulations of Gaussian random walks under equidistant and random periods. Results are compared to analytic and binomial pricing models for the same derivatives. Simulations show diminishing marginal increases to the fair price as the number of selected periods is increased. The returns correspond to a Hill curve whose parameters are set by interest rate and volatility. We demonstrate over-pricing under equidistant monitoring assumptions with error increasing as the lookback periods decrease. An example of a direct implication for event trading is when shock is forecasted but its timing uncertain, equidistant sampling produces a lower error on the true maximum than random choice. We conclude that the instrument provides an ideal space for investors to balance their risk, and as a prime candidate to hedge extreme volatility. We discuss the application of the amnesiac lookback option and path-dependent options to cryptocurrencies and blockchain commodities in the context of smart contracts.

The nuclear option in Canada - why it is gaining ground

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hopwood, J.M.; Alizadeh, A.; Hedges, K.R.; Tighe, P.

2005-01-01

Over the last five years, the nuclear option in Canada has gone from 'off-the-radar' to an essential part of the energy debate. In Ontario, in particular, building new nuclear plants, along with life-extension of existing plants, has been recommended by government commissions as one of the vital energy-supply options to be pursued. Both life-extension and introduction of new nuclear power plants are complicated by uncertainties in the energy market, and by changes in the organizational and policy environment. Public and policy-maker recognition of the nuclear role are steadily growing, but commercial conditions to support nuclear projects are still difficult to define and obtain. In Canada, as in many OECD countries, the need to add to electricity infrastructure is becoming apparent. Life-extension of existing nuclear units, and projects to build new unit, are being planned. The key challenges, once energy policy issues have been addressed, are mainly commercial. Based on its successful experience with overseas projects such as Quinshan, and on its evolutionary approach to design of new, advanced power plants, AECL is well placed to meet these challenges and launch a new round of nuclear projects. Overall, the Canadian perspective is towards increasing support for the nuclear option. Canada is poised to join the vanguard of the broadening nuclear power expansion. (orig.)

Bioenergy options. Multidisciplinary participatory method for assessing bioenergy options for rural villages in Tanzania

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kauzeni, A S; Masao, H P; Sawe, E N; Shechambo, F C [Dar Es Salaam Univ. (Tanzania). Inst. of Resource Assessment; Ellegaard, A [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

1999-12-31

In Tanzania, like in many other developing countries in Southern and Eastern Africa, bioenergy planning has received relatively little attention, compared to planning for `modern` energy sources, although it accounts for about 90% of the country`s energy supply. As a result there is less understanding of the complexity and diversity of bioenergy systems. There is a lack of reliable data and information on bio-resources, their consumption and interaction with social, economic, institutional and environmental factors. This is largely due to lack of adequately developed and easily understood methods of data and information development, analysis and methods of evaluating available bioenergy options. In order to address the above constraints a project was initiated where the general objective was to develop and test a multi-disciplinary research method for identifying bioenergy options that can contribute to satisfying the energy needs of the rural household, agricultural and small scale industrial sectors, promote growth and facilitate sustainable development. The decision on the development and testing of a multidisciplinary research method was based on the fact that in Tanzania several bioenergy programmes have been introduced e.g. tree planting, improved cookstoves, biogas, improved charcoal making kilns etc. for various purposes including combating deforestation; promoting economic growth, substitution of imported petroleum fuels, health improvement, and raising standards of living. However efforts made in introducing these programmes or interventions have met with limited success. This situation prevails because developed bioenergy technologies are not being adopted in adequate numbers by the target groups. There are some indications from the study that some of the real barriers to effective bioenergy interventions or adoption of bioenergy technologies lie at the policy level and not at the project level. After the development and testing of the methodology

Bioenergy options. Multidisciplinary participatory method for assessing bioenergy options for rural villages in Tanzania

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kauzeni, A.S.; Masao, H.P.; Sawe, E.N.; Shechambo, F.C. [Dar Es Salaam Univ. (Tanzania). Inst. of Resource Assessment; Ellegaard, A. [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

1998-12-31

In Tanzania, like in many other developing countries in Southern and Eastern Africa, bioenergy planning has received relatively little attention, compared to planning for `modern` energy sources, although it accounts for about 90% of the country`s energy supply. As a result there is less understanding of the complexity and diversity of bioenergy systems. There is a lack of reliable data and information on bio-resources, their consumption and interaction with social, economic, institutional and environmental factors. This is largely due to lack of adequately developed and easily understood methods of data and information development, analysis and methods of evaluating available bioenergy options. In order to address the above constraints a project was initiated where the general objective was to develop and test a multi-disciplinary research method for identifying bioenergy options that can contribute to satisfying the energy needs of the rural household, agricultural and small scale industrial sectors, promote growth and facilitate sustainable development. The decision on the development and testing of a multidisciplinary research method was based on the fact that in Tanzania several bioenergy programmes have been introduced e.g. tree planting, improved cookstoves, biogas, improved charcoal making kilns etc. for various purposes including combating deforestation; promoting economic growth, substitution of imported petroleum fuels, health improvement, and raising standards of living. However efforts made in introducing these programmes or interventions have met with limited success. This situation prevails because developed bioenergy technologies are not being adopted in adequate numbers by the target groups. There are some indications from the study that some of the real barriers to effective bioenergy interventions or adoption of bioenergy technologies lie at the policy level and not at the project level. After the development and testing of the methodology

Domain-specific reasoning: social contracts, cheating, and perspective change.

Science.gov (United States)

Gigerenzer, G; Hug, K

1992-05-01

What counts as human rationality: reasoning processes that embody content-independent formal theories, such as propositional logic, or reasoning processes that are well designed for solving important adaptive problems? Most theories of human reasoning have been based on content-independent formal rationality, whereas adaptive reasoning, ecological or evolutionary, has been little explored. We elaborate and test an evolutionary approach. Cosmides' (1989) social contract theory, using the Wason selection task. In the first part, we disentangle the theoretical concept of a "social contract" from that of a "cheater-detection algorithm". We demonstrate that the fact that a rule is perceived as a social contract--or a conditional permission or obligation, as Cheng and Holyoak (1985) proposed--is not sufficient to elicit Cosmides' striking results, which we replicated. The crucial issue is not semantic (the meaning of the rule), but pragmatic: whether a person is cued into the perspective of a party who can be cheated. In the second part, we distinguish between social contracts with bilateral and unilateral cheating options. Perspective change in contracts with bilateral cheating options turns P & not-Q responses into not-P & Q responses. The results strongly support social contract theory, contradict availability theory, and cannot be accounted for by pragmatic reasoning schema theory, which lacks the pragmatic concepts of perspectives and cheating detection.

Cognitive constraints on high school students' representations of real environmental problems

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, Ervin Kenneth

One class of juniors and seniors was studied through one semester in the investigation of how students think about, learn from, and solve real environmental problems. The intention was to listen to student voices while researching the features of their representations of these problems, the beliefs they held (tenets), the cognitive processes they employed, and the principles of science, ecology, problem solving, and ethics they held as tenets. The focus was upon two self-selected groups as they perceived, engaged, analyzed, and proposed solutions for problems. Analysis of the student representations involved interpretation of the features to include both the perspective tenets and the envisioning processes. These processes included the intentive and attentive constraints as tenet acquisition and volitive and agential constraints as tenet affirmation. The perspective tenets included a variety of conceptual (basic science, ecological, ethical, and problem-solving) constraints as well as ontological, epistemological, and other cultural (role, status, power, and community) constraints. The perspective tenets were interpreted thematically including the ways populations of people cause and care about environmental problems, the magnitude of environmental problems and the science involved, the expectations and limitations students perceive for themselves, and the importance of community awareness and cooperation to addressing these problems. Some of these tenets were interpreted to be principles in that they were rules that were accepted by some people as true. The perspective tenets, along with the envisioning processes, were perceived to be the constraints that determined the environmental problems and limited the solution possibilities. The students thought about environmental problems in mature and principled ways using a repertoire of cognitive processes. They learned from them as they acquired and affirmed tenets. They solved them through personal choices and

Female pattern alopecia: current perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Levy LL

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Lauren L Levy, Jason J Emer Department of Dermatology, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA Abstract: Hair loss is a commonly encountered problem in clinical practice, with men presenting with a distinctive pattern involving hairline recession and vertex balding (Norwood-Hamilton classification and women exhibiting diffuse hair thinning over the crown (increased part width and sparing of the frontal hairline (Ludwig classification. Female pattern hair loss has a strikingly overwhelming psychological effect; thus, successful treatments are necessary. Difficulty lies in successful treatment interventions, as only two medications – minoxidil and finasteride – are approved for the treatment of androgenetic alopecia, and these medications offer mediocre results, lack of a permanent cure, and potential complications. Hair transplantation is the only current successful permanent option, and it requires surgical procedures. Several other medical options, such as antiandrogens (eg, spironolactone, oral contraceptives, cyproterone, flutamide, dutasteride, prostaglandin analogs (eg, bimatoprost, latanoprost, and ketoconazole are reported to be beneficial. Laser and light therapies have also become popular despite the lack of a profound benefit. Management of expectations is crucial, and the aim of therapy, given the current therapeutic options, is to slow or stop disease progression with contentment despite patient expectations of permanent hair regrowth. This article reviews current perspectives on therapeutic options for female pattern hair loss. Keywords: androgenetic alopecia, female pattern hair loss, minoxidil, finasteride, antiandrogens, spironolactone

Paternalism, autonomy and reciprocity: ethical perspectives in encounters with patients in psychiatric in-patient care.

Science.gov (United States)

Pelto-Piri, Veikko; Engström, Karin; Engström, Ingemar

2013-12-06

Psychiatric staff members have the power to decide the options that frame encounters with patients. Intentional as well as unintentional framing can have a crucial impact on patients' opportunities to be heard and participate in the process. We identified three dominant ethical perspectives in the normative medical ethics literature concerning how doctors and other staff members should frame interactions in relation to patients; paternalism, autonomy and reciprocity. The aim of this study was to describe and analyse statements describing real work situations and ethical reflections made by staff members in relation to three central perspectives in medical ethics; paternalism, autonomy and reciprocity. All staff members involved with patients in seven adult psychiatric and six child and adolescent psychiatric clinics were given the opportunity to freely describe ethical considerations in their work by keeping an ethical diary over the course of one week and 173 persons handed in their diaries. Qualitative theory-guided content analysis was used to provide a description of staff encounters with patients and in what way these encounters were consistent with, or contrary to, the three perspectives. The majority of the statements could be attributed to the perspective of paternalism and several to autonomy. Only a few statements could be attributed to reciprocity, most of which concerned staff members acting contrary to the perspective. The result is presented as three perspectives containing eight values.•Paternalism; 1) promoting and restoring the health of the patient, 2) providing good care and 3) assuming responsibility.•Autonomy; 1) respecting the patient's right to self-determination and information, 2) respecting the patient's integrity and 3) protecting human rights.•Reciprocity; 1) involving patients in the planning and implementation of their care and 2) building trust between staff and patients. Paternalism clearly appeared to be the dominant

Financing medical office buildings.

Science.gov (United States)

Blake, J W

1995-01-01

This article discusses financing medical office buildings. In particular, financing and ownership options from a not-for-profit health care system perspective are reviewed, including use of tax-exempt debt, taxable debt, limited partnerships, sale, and real estate investment trusts (REITs).

Magnetic tomography - newer picture techniques and perspectives for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gjesdal, Kjell-Inge; Smith, Hans-Joergen

2000-01-01

Background: From the very introduction of MRI into medicine, the modality has presented the user a long list of theoretical tissue contrast parameters. The development of MRI has been aimed at turning these theoretical possibilities into practical options. Material and method: We give an overview of the new MRI techniques and perspectives for the future based on literature search and our own experience. Results: Today, the modality offers state-of-the-art anatomical details as well as visualisation of several functional parameters such as perfusion, diffusion, blood oxygen saturation and tissue temperature. In the near future, MRI may provide absolute quantification of regional perfusion and rate of oxygen consumption in a clinical setting. New vascular and gastrointestinal contrast media will further increase the sensitivity and specificity of MRI. A continuous increase in imaging speed has made MRI capable of providing adequate ''fluoroscopic'' guidance during interventional procedures and real-time diagnostic imaging is only few years ahead. Interpretation: The spread of MRI installations will increase as a result of increasing demand for the best and least harmful diagnostic procedure. The main challenge to the MRI community will be to exploit the vast diagnostic possibilities

Traffic Light Options

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Peter Løchte

This paper introduces, prices, and analyzes traffic light options. The traffic light option is an innovative structured OTC derivative developed independently by several London-based investment banks to suit the needs of Danish life and pension (L&P) companies, which must comply with the traffic...... 2006, and supervisory authorities in many other European countries have implemented similar regulation. Traffic light options are therefore likely to attract the attention of a wider audience of pension fund managers in the future. Focusing on the valuation of the traffic light option we set up a Black...... light scenarios. These stress scenarios entail drops in interest rates as well as in stock prices, and traffic light options are thus designed to pay off and preserve sufficient capital when interest rates and stock prices fall simultaneously. Sweden's FSA implemented a traffic light system in January...

Traffic Light Options

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Peter Løchte

2007-01-01

This paper introduces, prices, and analyzes traffic light options. The traffic light option is an innovative structured OTC derivative developed independently by several London-based investment banks to suit the needs of Danish life and pension (L&P) companies, which must comply with the traffic...... 2006, and supervisory authorities in many other European countries have implemented similar regulation. Traffic light options are therefore likely to attract the attention of a wider audience of pension fund managers in the future. Focusing on the valuation of the traffic light option we set up a Black...... light scenarios. These stress scenarios entail drops in interest rates as well as in stock prices, and traffic light options are thus designed to pay off and preserve sufficient capital when interest rates and stock prices fall simultaneously. Sweden's FSA implemented a traffic light system in January...

Deception Detection: The Relationship of Levels of Trust and Perspective Taking in Real-Time Online and Offline Communication Environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Friend, Catherine; Fox Hamilton, Nicola

2016-09-01

Where humans have been found to detect lies or deception only at the rate of chance in offline face-to-face communication (F2F), computer-mediated communication (CMC) online can elicit higher rates of trust and sharing of personal information than F2F. How do levels of trust and empathetic personality traits like perspective taking (PT) relate to deception detection in real-time CMC compared to F2F? A between groups correlational design (N = 40) demonstrated that, through a paired deceptive conversation task with confederates, levels of participant trust could predict accurate detection online but not offline. Second, participant PT abilities could not predict accurate detection in either conversation medium. Finally, this study found that conversation medium also had no effect on deception detection. This study finds support for the effects of the Truth Bias and online disinhibition in deception, and further implications in law enforcement are discussed.

Determining ''Best Practicable Environmental Options'' for final waste disposal of radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Graham

1999-01-01

This presentation discusses some ideas on what the Best Practical Environmental Option (BPEO) process should include. A BPEO study to help develop a radioactive waste management strategy should not only look at post-closure safety of a facility. In the UK there was a 1986 Study of BPEOs for management of low and intermediate level radioactive wastes. This study tried to answer important questions such as (1) What are the practical options, (2) Which wastes should go to shallow burial, (3) Which wastes should go to sea disposal, (4) How does storage compare with disposal and (5) What are the cost and environmental trade-offs. The presentation discusses what was done to answer the questions. The BPEO Study resulted in major improved effort to characterise waste, much greater quantitative understanding of where and when the real costs, and environmental and radiological impacts arise. All options would be useful within a national strategy. But there was clearly a need for resolution of political acceptance problems, integration of policy with other hazardous waste management, and stronger legal framework

The origins of options.

Science.gov (United States)

Smaldino, Paul E; Richerson, Peter J

2012-01-01

Most research on decision making has focused on how human or animal decision makers choose between two or more options, posed in advance by the researchers. The mechanisms by which options are generated for most decisions, however, are not well understood. Models of sequential search have examined the trade-off between continued exploration and choosing one's current best option, but still cannot explain the processes by which new options are generated. We argue that understanding the origins of options is a crucial but untapped area for decision making research. We explore a number of factors which influence the generation of options, which fall broadly into two categories: psycho-biological and socio-cultural. The former category includes factors such as perceptual biases and associative memory networks. The latter category relies on the incredible human capacity for culture and social learning, which doubtless shape not only our choices but the options available for choice. Our intention is to start a discussion that brings us closer toward understanding the origins of options.

30 CFR 90.3 - Part 90 option; notice of eligibility; exercise of option.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Part 90 option; notice of eligibility; exercise of option. 90.3 Section 90.3 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF... DEVELOPMENT OF PNEUMOCONIOSIS General § 90.3 Part 90 option; notice of eligibility; exercise of option. (a...

The Value of ICT from a Learning Game-Playing Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

McNeill, Michael C.; Fry, Joan M.

2012-01-01

This study evaluated an Information and Communication Technology (ICT) case study in physical education teacher education from a student perspective. Action research evaluated the impact of a range of ICT options on student teachers' learning to play as well as learning to teach games in a secondary school context. Although multiple media were…

Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M.; Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G.; Duemmer, C.L.

1997-01-01

The Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms' responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE's direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government's unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management

Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M. [Joint Inst. for Energy and Environment, Knoxville, TN (United States); Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G. [Georgia State Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States); Duemmer, C.L. [Hull, Duemmer and Garland (United States)

1997-06-25

The Department of Energy`s Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms` responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE`s direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government`s unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management.

Are biofuels a feasible option?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldemberg, Jose; Guardabassi, Patricia

2009-01-01

Recently a number of objections have been raised against the use of ethanol produced from agricultural products such as maize, sugarcane, wheat or sugar beets as a replacement for gasoline, despite some of their advantages such as being cleaner and to some extent renewable. We address these objections in this paper. Topics discussed include the 'corn connection' (which was theorized to be a cause of deforestation in the Amazonia), the rise of food prices due to ethanol production and the real possibilities of ethanol in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It has been shown that such concerns are grossly exaggerated and that ethanol from sugarcane, as produced in Brazil, is the preferred option for the production of fuel not only in terms of cost but also as a favourable energy balance. Finally, the possibility of expanding ethanol production to other sugar-producing countries is also discussed

Options with Extreme Strikes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lingjiong Zhu

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In this short paper, we study the asymptotics for the price of call options for very large strikes and put options for very small strikes. The stock price is assumed to follow the Black–Scholes models. We analyze European, Asian, American, Parisian and perpetual options and conclude that the tail asymptotics for these option types fall into four scenarios.

Bladder augmentation without integration of intact bowel segments: critical review and future perspectives.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gurocak, S.; Gier, R.P.E. de; Feitz, W.F.J.

2007-01-01

PURPOSE: We evaluated the long-term results of autoaugmentation in the pediatric age group and summarized technical adaptations, experimental options and future perspectives for treating these patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A directed MEDLINE literature review was performed to assess different

Real-life decision making in college students. I: Consistency across specific decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Galotti, Kathleen M; Wiener, Hillary J D; Tandler, Jane M

2014-01-01

First-year undergraduates participated in a short-term longitudinal study of real-life decision making over their first 14 months of college. They were surveyed about 7 different decisions: choosing courses for an upcoming term (3 different terms), choosing an academic major (twice), planning for the upcoming summer, and planning for sophomore-year housing. Participants showed moderate levels of consistency in the options they considered and in the criteria they used to decide between options, with about half of the options or criteria being used at 2 different points on the decision repeatedly studied. Participants varied somewhat in structural consistency, the tendency to consider the same number of options or criteria across decisions. They also varied in the way they integrated information across decision-making tasks. We suggest that people attempt to keep the information demands of the task within workable limits, sometimes sacrificing consistency as a result.

Real-time systems design and analysis tools for the practitioner

CERN Document Server

Laplante, Phillip A

2012-01-01

An important resource, this book offers an introduction and overview of real-time systems: systems where timeliness is a crucial part of the correctness of the system. It contains a pragmatic overview of key topics (computer architecture and organization, operating systems, software engineering, programming languages, and compiler theory) from the perspective of the real-time systems designer and is organized into chapters that are essentially self-contained. In addition, each chapter contains both basic and more challenging exercises that will help the reader to confront actual problems.

Treatment Options for Retinoblastoma

Science.gov (United States)

... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other places in the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

Crowded: a crowd-sourced perspective of events as they happen

Science.gov (United States)

Brantingham, Richard; Hossain, Aleem

2013-05-01

`Crowded' is a web-based application developed by the Defence Science & Technology Laboratory (Dstl) that collates imagery of a particular location from a variety of media sources to provide an operator with real-time situational awareness. Emergency services and other relevant agencies have detected or become aware of an event - a riot or an explosion, for instance - and its location or text associated with it. The ubiquity of mobile devices allows people to collect and upload media of the incident to the Internet, in real time. Crowded manages the interactions with online sources of media: Flickr; Instagram; YouTube; Twitter; and Transport for London traffic cameras, to retrieve imagery that is being uploaded at that point in time. In doing so, it aims to provide human operators with near-instantaneous `eyes-on' from a variety of different perspectives. The first instantiation of Crowded was implemented as a series of integrated web-services with the aim of rapidly understanding whether the approach was viable. In doing so, it demonstrated how non-traditional, open sources can be used to provide a richer current intelligence picture than can be obtained alone from classified sources. The development of Crowded also explored how open source technology and cloud-based services can be used in the modern intelligence and security environment to provide a multi-agency Common Operating Picture to help achieve a co-ordinated response. The lessons learned in building the prototype are currently being used to design and develop a second version, and identify options and priorities for future development.

Polish Toxic Currency Options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Waldemar Gontarski

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Toxic currency options are defined on the basis of the opposition to the nature (essence of an option contract, which is justified in terms of norms founded on the general law clause of characteristics (nature of a relation (which represents an independent premise for imposing restrictions on the freedom of contracts. So-understood toxic currency options are unlawful. Indeed they contravene iuris cogentis regulations. These include for instance option contracts, which are concluded with a bank, if the bank has not informed about option risk before concluding the contract; or the barrier options, which focus only on the protection of bank’s interests. Therefore, such options may appear to be invalid. Therefore, performing contracts for toxic currency options may be qualified as a criminal mismanagement. For the sake of security, the manager should then take into consideration filing a claim for stating invalidity (which can be made in a court verdict. At the same time, if the supervisory board member in a commercial company, who can also be a subject to mismanagement offences, commits an omission involving lack of reaction (for example, if he/she fails to notify of the suspected offence committed by the management board members acting to the company’s detriment when the management board makes the company conclude option contracts which are charged with absolute invalidity the supervisory board member so acting may be considered to act to the company’s detriment. In the most recent Polish jurisprudence and judicature the standard of a “good host” is treated to be the last resort for determining whether the manager’s powers resulting from criminal regulations were performed. The manager of the exporter should not, as a rule, issue any options. Issuing options always means assuming an obligation. In the case of currency put options it is an absolute obligation to purchase a given amount in euro at exchange rate set in advance. On the

Innovations and research perspectives; Innovations et perspectives de recherche

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-12-31

This conference day was organized by the air-conditioning engineering section of the French association of thermal engineers. This book of proceedings contains 7 papers entitled: `Clima 2000: conclusions and perspectives`; `normative approach of the different aspects of ambience comfort`; `progress of the local discomfort evaluation methods`; `towards a global approach of air conditioning of buildings`; `simulation of the energy behaviour of industrial entities. Statement of real actions and methodological evolutions`; `modeling and simulation: state-of-the-art`; `automatized generation of a thermal and aeraulic simulation in buildings`. (J.S.)

Innovations and research perspectives; Innovations et perspectives de recherche

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-12-31

This conference day was organized by the air-conditioning engineering section of the French association of thermal engineers. This book of proceedings contains 7 papers entitled: `Clima 2000: conclusions and perspectives`; `normative approach of the different aspects of ambience comfort`; `progress of the local discomfort evaluation methods`; `towards a global approach of air conditioning of buildings`; `simulation of the energy behaviour of industrial entities. Statement of real actions and methodological evolutions`; `modeling and simulation: state-of-the-art`; `automatized generation of a thermal and aeraulic simulation in buildings`. (J.S.)

Look at potential options for the fast reactor fuel cycle in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burch, W.D.

1984-01-01

This paper reviews the status and plans for the fast reactor fuel cycle in the United States, presents some options that are under consideration, and describes how these options are being evaluated at the present time. The United States will undertake some far-reaching examinations of the entire breeder program strategy in the coming year, and the outcome of these reviews cannot be predicted today. In other papers at this conference you have heard various perspectives from both government and industry representatives. The proposed studies to examine the associated fuel cycle strategies as they relate to the overall emerging breeder strategy are described. The present status of and recent developments in the fuel cycle R and D programs will also be summarized and updated in order to present an overall picture of the United States situation

The primary assessment tool at Philips electronics : capturing real options and organizational risk in technology portfolio management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lint, L.J.O.

2000-01-01

I develop an extended scoring approach to build a balanced portfolio of new technology projects under uncertainty at early stages of development. My contribution is twofold. First, I show how the tool incorporates the option approach to decision making to create contingent claims on future market

Surgical options for lumbosacral fusion: biomechanical stability, advantage, disadvantage and affecting factors in selecting options.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshihara, Hiroyuki

2014-07-01

Numerous surgical procedures and instrumentation techniques for lumbosacral fusion (LSF) have been developed. This is probably because of its high mechanical demand and unique anatomy. Surgical options include anterior column support (ACS) and posterior stabilization procedures. Biomechanical studies have been performed to verify the stability of those options. The options have their own advantage but also disadvantage aspects. This review article reports the surgical options for lumbosacral fusion, their biomechanical stability, advantages/disadvantages, and affecting factors in option selection. Review of literature. LSF has lots of options both for ACS and posterior stabilization procedures. Combination of posterior stabilization procedures is an option. Furthermore, combinations of ACS and posterior stabilization procedures are other options. It is difficult to make a recommendation or treatment algorithm of LSF from the current literature. However, it is important to know all aspects of the options and decision-making of surgical options for LSF needs to be tailored for each patient, considering factors such as biomechanical stress and osteoporosis.

GASIFICACIÓN DE CARBÓN PARA GENERACIÓN DE ENERGÍA ELÉCTRICA: ANÁLISIS CON VALORACIÓN DE OPCIONES REALES COAL GASIFICATION FOR POWER GENERATION: ANALYSIS WITH REAL OPTIONS VALUATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alejandro Concha A

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Se evalúa económicamente la utilización de la tecnología de gasificación de carbón en la generación de energía eléctrica, utilizando información secundaria y el enfoque de valoración de opciones reales mediante árboles binomiales de 2 variables. Se analiza el caso de adaptar una central existente de gas natural de ciclo combinado (NGCC para la utilización de syngas a partir de carbón; en un segundo caso, se evalúa la instalación de una nueva central termoeléctrica de carbón pulverizado (PC o alternativamente una central de gasificación de carbón integrada a ciclo combinado (IGCC. En este último caso, se evalúa la opción de "switching" de combustible. Para los precios de los combustibles se emplean modelos de Movimiento Browniano Geométrico No Homogéneo (IGBM y en ambos casos estudiados se analiza en 2 escenarios de precios, incluyendo análisis de sensibilidad. Respecto al primer caso, la adaptación a syngas de una planta NGCC es conveniente económicamente, teniendo el proyecto una alta sensibilidad respecto a la eficiencia. La sensibilidad a la inversión no es significativa, como tampoco a los gastos de operación. Respecto al segundo caso, la conveniencia económica de la planta IGCC frente a la planta PC no es clara en los escenarios de precios considerados. Pero analizada en diversas combinaciones de precios, la planta IGCC de operación flexible alternando dos combustibles puede lograr ventajas económicas. Respecto a la sensibilidad, se repiten las conclusiones mencionadas para el primer caso.The use of coal gasification technology in the generation of electric power is evaluated economically. Secondary information and valuation of real options approach is used, with two variables binomial lattices. First, the retrofit of an existing natural gas combined cycle plant (NGCC for the utilization of syngas from coal is analyzed; on the second case, an economical evaluation is realized for to compare a new Pulverized

Options for investigative postsurgical therapy for gastric cancer, and case report of using the option for combined immunotherapy and chemotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerhardt, P

2001-02-01

The investigative therapy for a senior patient after radical subtotal gastroesophagectomy for regional lymph node and proximal esophagus metastasized adenocarcinoma (stage IIIA, T3, N 1 M0) of the cardioesophageal junction is reported. The case has several unusual features: (1) the patient is the author and is not a physician; (2) in the absence of codified postsurgical treatment, he used his academic biomedical background, commercial associations, and international contacts to find and prioritize six clinically tested options for investigative postsurgical therapy; (3) after unsuccessful efforts to append ongoing clinical trials of new immunotherapies for breast adenocarcinoma (the first two therapy options), an innovative protocol was designed and gained allowance by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for his use of combined nonspecific immunotherapy and chemotherapy based on extensive trials in South Korea that showed the synergistic effect of the two postsurgical therapies used together. A potent, new, nonspecific immunostimulant (DetoxPC) was injected subcutaneously in 10 diminishing doses during 105 weeks. Two standard chemotherapeutic drugs (5-fluorouracil and mitomycin-C) were injected intravenously in six equal doses during three weeks. Five years after the surgery, the patient enjoys good health without signs or symptoms of recurrence or metastasis. He discusses his perspectives on future clinical trials and on a patient actively pursuing investigative postsurgical therapy for a malignancy when otherwise poor survival is indicated.

TANK SPACE OPTIONS REPORT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Willis, W.L.; Ahrendt, M.R.

2009-01-01

Since this report was originally issued in 2001, several options proposed for increasing double-shell tank (DST) storage space were implemented or are in the process of implementation. Changes to the single-shell tank (SST) waste retrieval schedule, completion of DST space saving options, and the DST space saving options in progress have delayed the projected shortfall of DST storage space from the 2007-2011 to the 2018-2025 timeframe (ORP-11242, River Protection Project System Plan). This report reevaluates options from Rev. 0 and includes evaluations of new options for alleviating projected restrictions on SST waste retrieval beginning in 2018 because of the lack of DST storage space.

Optimizing near real time accountability for reprocessing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cipiti, Benjamin B.

2010-01-01

Near Real Time Accountability (NRTA) of actinides at high precision in reprocessing plants has been a long sought-after goal in the safeguards community. Achieving this goal is hampered by the difficulty of making precision measurements in the reprocessing environment, equipment cost, and impact to plant operations. Thus the design of future reprocessing plants requires an optimization of different approaches. The Separations and Safeguards Performance Model, developed at Sandia National Laboratories, was used to evaluate a number of NRTA strategies in a UREX+ reprocessing plant. Strategies examined include the incorporation of additional actinide measurements of internal plant vessels, more use of process monitoring data, and the option of periodic draining of inventory to key tanks. Preliminary results show that the addition of measurement technologies can increase the overall measurement uncertainty due to additional error propagation, so care must be taken when designing an advanced system. Initial results also show that relying on a combination of different NRTA techniques will likely be the best option. The model provides a platform for integrating all the data. The modeling results for the different NRTA options under various material loss conditions will be presented.

Dynamique jointe stock/option et application aux stratégies de trading sur options

OpenAIRE

El Aoud , Sofiene

2015-01-01

This thesis explores theoretically and empirically the implications of the stock/option joint dynamics on applications related to option trading. In the first part of the thesis, we look into the relations between stock options and index options under the risk-neutral measure. The Capital Asset Pricing Model offers an adequate mathematical framework for this study as it provides a modeling approach for the joint dynamics between the stock and the index. As we compute option prices according t...

Real-Time Congestion Management in Distribution Networks by Flexible Demand Swap

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huang, Shaojun; Wu, Qiuwei

2017-01-01

In addition to the day-ahead congestion management in distribution networks, the real-time congestion management is very important because many unforeseen events can occur at the real operation time, e.g. loss of generation of distributed energy resources (DERs) or inaccurate forecast of energy...... pumps (HPs) for real time congestion management. The swap method can maintain the power balance of the system and avoid the imbalance cost of activating the flexibility service. An algorithm for forming swaps through optimal power flow (OPF) and mixed integer linear programming (MILP) is proposed...... consumption or production. Flexibility service from demand will be a good option to solve the real-time congestions if the cost of activating the flexibility service is fully addressed. This paper proposes a new method, namely “swap”, to employ the flexibility service from electric vehicles (EVs) and heat...

Parasuicidal behavior through the lenses of the future-real psychology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kanevskiy Victor Ionovich

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The future-real psychology focuses on the orientation of the individual in respect of the future time based on the situation of the present time. The future-real psychology suggests studying the future through the goal orientation where an operational component is the goal. The goals can be “close perspective”, “medium perspective” and “long perspective”. Parasuicidal individuals are characterized by “close perspective” goals in comparison with those who do not have a wish to commit a suicide because they follow the long perspective goals.

Forecasting with Option-Implied Information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Chang, Bo Young

2013-01-01

This chapter surveys the methods available for extracting information from option prices that can be used in forecasting. We consider option-implied volatilities, skewness, kurtosis, and densities. More generally, we discuss how any forecasting object that is a twice differentiable function...... of the future realization of the underlying risky asset price can utilize option-implied information in a well-defined manner. Going beyond the univariate option-implied density, we also consider results on option-implied covariance, correlation and beta forecasting, as well as the use of option......-implied information in cross-sectional forecasting of equity returns. We discuss how option-implied information can be adjusted for risk premia to remove biases in forecasting regressions....

Comparison of real development levels of countries: Genesis and perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prekajac Zora

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Comparison of levels of development among countries is usually done by reducing values in national currencies with a common denominator, using the official exchange rate. Because of its unreality, the values calculated in this way do not illustrate real relations between compared countries. That brings about the launching of the UN International Comparison Project (latter Programme with two fold aims: developing a method for international comparison of real domestic product which could be applied to a number of very heterogeneous countries, and the comparison of growing number of very different countries. Until now six phases of comparisons are finished. Taking into consideration problems that appeared in the realization of the VI ICP phase as well as quality improvement proposals, a decision has been made to launch a new, global round for 2003-2006. Comparison will cover 150 countries (the widest coverage ever. This will give global character to the comparison, which was the end cause of the ICP.

Visualizing Our Options for Coastal Places: Exploring Realistic Immersive Geovisualizations as Tools for Inclusive Approaches to Coastal Planning and Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Newell

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Effective coastal planning is inclusive and incorporates the variety of user needs, values and interests associated with coastal environments. Realistic, immersive geographic visualizations, i.e., geovisualizations, can serve as potentially powerful tools for facilitating such planning because they can provide diverse groups with vivid understandings of how they would feel about certain management outcomes or impacts if transpired in real places. However, the majority of studies in this area have focused on terrestrial environments, and research on applications of such tools in the coastal and marine contexts is in its infancy. The current study aims to advance such research by examining the potential a land-to-sea geovisualization has to serve as a tool for inclusive coastal planning efforts. The research uses Sidney Spit Park (BC, Canada as a study site, and a realistic, dynamic geovisualization of the park was developed (using Unity3D that allows users to interact with and navigate it through the first-person perspective. Management scenarios were developed based on discussions with Parks Canada, and these scenarios included fencing around vegetation areas, positioning of mooring buoys, and management of dog activity within the park. Scenarios were built into the geovisualization in a manner that allows users to toggle different options. Focus groups were then assembled, involving residents of the Capital Regional District (BC, Canada, and participants explored and provided feedback on the scenarios. Findings from the study demonstrate the geovisualization's usefulness for assessing certain qualities of scenarios, such as aesthetics and functionality of fencing options and potential viewshed impacts associated with different mooring boat locations. In addition, the study found that incorporating navigability into the geovisualization proved to be valuable for understanding scenarios that hold implications for the marine environment due to

Game Options approach in bankruptcy triggering asset value

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdelmajid El hajaji

2019-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a new numerical method, game theory and option pricing to compute a bankruptcy triggering asset value. we will draw our attention to determining a the numerical asset value, or price of a share, at which a bankruptcy is triggered. This paper develops and analyze a cubic spline collocation method for approximating solutions of the problem. This method converges quadratically. In addition, this article also provides with a real-life case study of the investment bank, and the optimal bankruptcy strategy in this particular case. As we will observe, the bankruptcy trigger computed in this example could have served as a good guide for predicting fall of this investment bank.

Mathematical modeling for exploring the effects of overtime option, rework, and discontinuous inventory issuing policy on EMQ model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Singa Wang Chiu

2018-09-01

Full Text Available This study employs mathematical modeling to explore the effects of overtime option, rework, and discontinuous end-item issuing policy on the economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ model. Conventional EMQ model assumed that all products fabricated are of good quality and are issued under continuous policy. In real world, however, nonconforming items are randomly produced, due to diverse unexpected factors in fabrication process. When finished items are to be distributed to outside locations, discontinuous multi-shipment policy is often used rather than continuous rule. In addition, with the intention of increasing short-term capacity or shortening replenishment cycle length to smooth the production planning, adopting overtime option can be an effective strategy. To cope with the aforementioned features in real production systems, this study incorporates overtime option, rework, and multi-shipment policy into the EMQ model and explores their joint effects on optimal lot size and number of shipments, and on other relevant system parameters. Mathematical modeling and Hessian matrix equations enable us to derive the optimal policies to the problem. Through the use of numerical example, the applicability of research result is exhibited and a variety of significant effects of these features on the proposed system are revealed.

Option price and market instability

Science.gov (United States)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

2017-04-01

An option pricing formula, for which the price of an option depends on both the value of the underlying security as well as the velocity of the security, has been proposed in Baaquie and Yang (2014). The FX (foreign exchange) options price was empirically studied in Baaquie et al., (2014), and it was found that the model in general provides an excellent fit for all strike prices with a fixed model parameters-unlike the Black-Scholes option price Hull and White (1987) that requires the empirically determined implied volatility surface to fit the option data. The option price proposed in Baaquie and Cao Yang (2014) did not fit the data during the crisis of 2007-2008. We make a hypothesis that the failure of the option price to fit data is an indication of the market's large deviation from its near equilibrium behavior due to the market's instability. Furthermore, our indicator of market's instability is shown to be more accurate than the option's observed volatility. The market prices of the FX option for various currencies are studied in the light of our hypothesis.

Options Study - Phase II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

R. Wigeland; T. Taiwo; M. Todosow; W. Halsey; J. Gehin

2010-09-01

The Options Study has been conducted for the purpose of evaluating the potential of alternative integrated nuclear fuel cycle options to favorably address the issues associated with a continuing or expanding use of nuclear power in the United States. The study produced information that can be used to inform decisions identifying potential directions for research and development on such fuel cycle options. An integrated nuclear fuel cycle option is defined in this study as including all aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, from obtaining natural resources for fuel to the ultimate disposal of used nuclear fuel (UNF) or radioactive wastes. Issues such as nuclear waste management, especially the increasing inventory of used nuclear fuel, the current uncertainty about used fuel disposal, and the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation have contributed to the reluctance to expand the use of nuclear power, even though it is recognized that nuclear power is a safe and reliable method of producing electricity. In this Options Study, current, evolutionary, and revolutionary nuclear energy options were all considered, including the use of uranium and thorium, and both once-through and recycle approaches. Available information has been collected and reviewed in order to evaluate the ability of an option to clearly address the challenges associated with the current implementation and potential expansion of commercial nuclear power in the United States. This Options Study is a comprehensive consideration and review of fuel cycle and technology options, including those for disposal, and is not constrained by any limitations that may be imposed by economics, technical maturity, past policy, or speculated future conditions. This Phase II report is intended to be used in conjunction with the Phase I report, and much information in that report is not repeated here, although some information has been updated to reflect recent developments. The focus in this Options Study was to

Efficient Trajectory Options Allocation for the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program

Science.gov (United States)

Rodionova, Olga; Arneson, Heather; Sridhar, Banavar; Evans, Antony

2017-01-01

The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) is a Traffic Management Initiative (TMI) intended to control the air traffic flow rates at multiple specified Flow Constrained Areas (FCAs), where demand exceeds capacity. CTOP allows flight operators to submit the desired Trajectory Options Set (TOS) for each affected flight with associated Relative Trajectory Cost (RTC) for each option. CTOP then creates a feasible schedule that complies with capacity constraints by assigning affected flights with routes and departure delays in such a way as to minimize the total cost while maintaining equity across flight operators. The current version of CTOP implements a Ration-by-Schedule (RBS) scheme, which assigns the best available options to flights based on a First-Scheduled-First-Served heuristic. In the present study, an alternative flight scheduling approach is developed based on linear optimization. Results suggest that such an approach can significantly reduce flight delays, in the deterministic case, while maintaining equity as defined using a Max-Min fairness scheme.

Issues in the determination of the optimal portfolio of electricity supply options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hickey, Emily A.; Lon Carlson, J.; Loomis, David

2010-01-01

In recent years a growing amount of attention has been focused on the need to develop a cost-effective portfolio of electricity supply options that provides society with a measure of protection from such factors as fuel price volatility and supply interruptions. A number of strategies, including portfolio theory, real options theory, and different measures of diversity have been suggested. In this paper we begin by first considering how we might characterize an optimal portfolio of supply options and identify a number of constraints that must be satisfied as part of the optimization process. We then review the strengths and limitations of each approach listed above. The results of our review lead us to conclude that, of the strategies we consider, using the concept of diversity to assess the viability of an electricity supply portfolio is most appropriate. We then provide an example of how a particular measure of diversity, the Shannon-Weiner Index, can be used to assess the diversity of the electricity supply portfolio in the state of Illinois, the region served by the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO), and the continental United States.

A new perspective into root-cause analysis and diagnostics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Inn Seock; Kim, Tae Kwon; Kim, Min Chull

1998-01-01

A critical review of diagnostic and root-cause analysis methods, developed in nuclear, chemical process, aviation industries, was made. Based on this review, the insights into both off-line and on-line diagnostics, and also root-cause analysis are preseted from a new perspective. This perspective may be applied for various purposes, including real-time on-line process diagnosis, root-cause analysis of reactor scrams, diagnosis of severe accidents, or situation identification of an on-going emergency at a nuclear site

Early Option Exercise

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Jensen, Mads Vestergaard

A classic result by Merton (1973) is that, except just before expiration or dividend payments, one should never exercise a call option and never convert a convertible bond. We show theoretically that this result is overturned when investors face frictions. Early option exercise can be optimal when...... it reduces short-sale costs, transaction costs, or funding costs. We provide consistent empirical evidence, documenting billions of dollars of early exercise for options and convertible bonds using unique data on actual exercise decisions and frictions. Our model can explain as much as 98% of early exercises...

Early Option Exercise

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Mads Vestergaard; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2016-01-01

A classic result by Merton (1973) is that, except just before expiration or dividend payments, one should never exercise a call option and never convert a convertible bond. We show theoretically that this result is overturned when investors face frictions. Early option exercise can be optimal when...... it reduces short-sale costs, transaction costs, or funding costs. We provide consistent empirical evidence, documenting billions of dollars of early exercise for options and convertible bonds using unique data on actual exercise decisions and frictions. Our model can explain as much as 98% of early exercises...

Nevada Transportation Options Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

P. GEHNER; E.M. WEAVER; L. FOSSUM

2006-01-01

This study performs a cost and schedule analysis of three Nevada Transportation options that support waste receipt at the repository. Based on the U.S. Department of Energy preference for rail transportation in Nevada (given in the Final Environmental Impact Statement), it has been assumed that a branch rail line would be constructed to support waste receipt at the repository. However, due to potential funding constraints, it is uncertain when rail will be available. The three Nevada Transportation options have been developed to meet a varying degree of requirements for transportation and to provide cost variations used in meeting the funding constraints given in the Technical Direction Letter guidelines for this study. The options include combinations of legal-weight truck, heavy-haul truck, and rail. Option 1 uses a branch rail line that would support initial waste receipt at the repository in 2010. Rail transportation would be the primary mode, supplemented by legal weight trucks. This option provides the highest level of confidence in cost and schedule, lowest public visibility, greatest public acceptability, lowest public dose, and is the recommended option for support of waste receipt. The completion of rail by 2010 will require spending approximately $800 million prior to 2010. Option 2 uses a phased rail approach to address a constrained funding scenario. To meet funding constraints, Option 2 uses a phased approach to delay high cost activities (final design and construction) until after initial waste receipt in 2010. By doing this, approximately 95 percent of the cost associated with completion of a branch rail line is deferred until after 2010. To support waste receipt until a branch rail line is constructed in Nevada, additional legal-weight truck shipments and heavy-haul truck shipments (on a limited basis for naval spent nuclear fuel) would be used to meet the same initial waste receipt rates as in Option 1. Use of heavy-haul shipments in the absence

20th IEEE-NPSS Real Time Conference

CERN Document Server

2016-01-01

We invite you at the Centro Congressi “A. Luciani” in Padova for the 2016 Real Time Conference (RT2016). It will take place Monday 6 through Friday 10 June 2016, with optional pre-conference tutorials Sunday, June 5. Like the previous editions, RT2016 will be a multidisciplinary conference devoted to the latest developments on realtime techniques in the fields of Plasma and Nuclear Fusion, particle physics, nuclear physics and astrophysics, space science, accelerators, medical physics, nuclear power instrumentation and other radiation instrumentation.

Is 'Opt-Out HIV Testing' a real option among pregnant women in rural districts in Kenya?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wamalwa David

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background An 'opt-out' policy of routine HIV counseling and testing (HCT is being implemented across sub-Saharan Africa to expand prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT. Although the underlying assumption is that pregnant women in rural Africa are able to voluntarily consent to HIV testing, little is known about the reality and whether 'opt-out' HCT leads to higher completion rates of PMTCT. Factors associated with consent to HIV testing under the 'opt-out' approach were investigated through a large cross-sectional study in Kenya. Methods Observations during HIV pre-test information sessions were followed by a cross-sectional survey of 900 pregnant women in three public district hospitals carrying out PMTCT in the Busia district. Women on their first antenatal care (ANC visit during the current pregnancy were interviewed after giving blood for HIV testing but before learning their test results. Descriptive statistics and multivariate regression analysis were performed. Results Of the 900 women participating, 97% tested for HIV. Lack of testing kits was the only reason for women not being tested, i.e. nobody declined HIV testing. Despite the fact that 96% had more than four earlier pregnancies and 37% had been tested for HIV at ANC previously, only 17% of the women surveyed knew that testing was optional. Only 20% of those surveyed felt they could make an informed decision to decline HIV testing. Making an informed decision to decline HIV testing was associated with knowing that testing was optional (OR = 5.44, 95%CI 3.44-8.59, not having a stable relationship with the child's father (OR = 1.76, 95%CI 1.02-3.03, and not having discussed HIV testing with a partner before the ANC visit (OR = 2.64 95%CI 1.79-3.86. Conclusion High coverage of HIV testing appears to be achieved at the cost of pregnant women not understanding that testing is optional. Good quality HIV pre-test information is central to ensure that pregnant women

Nominal and real convergence in the new member states (longer-term perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vásáry, V.

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The advancement of nominal and real convergence in the process of EU adaptation is of special importance. The paper studies the main factors of convergence processes in detail. It pays special attention to the analysis of catch-up processes. The paper uses the concepts of the growth theories in order to describe the real convergence processes. Besides the supply side approach (growth accounting, production function, it focuses highly on the demand side and the factors playing an important role in the newest growth theories (trade, macroeconomic policies, institutional system etc..

Computer Science Education in French Secondary Schools: Historical and Didactical Perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Baron, Georges-Louis; Drot-Delange, Beatrice; Grandbastien, Monique; Tort, Françoise

2014-01-01

Computer science as a school subject in France is characterized by a succession of promising starts that have not yet been transformed into perennial solutions. The main goal of this article is to analyze this complex situation from a historical perspective, and describe the current rebirth of an optional Computer Science course in the last year…

Distributed Energy Implementation Options

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shah, Chandralata N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-09-13

This presentation covers the options for implementing distributed energy projects. It distinguishes between options available for distributed energy that is government owned versus privately owned, with a focus on the privately owned options including Energy Savings Performance Contract Energy Sales Agreements (ESPC ESAs). The presentation covers the new ESPC ESA Toolkit and other Federal Energy Management Program resources.

Future perspective and healthy lifestyle choices in adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Tasdemir-Ozdes, Aylin; Strickland-Hughes, Carla M; Bluck, Susan; Ebner, Natalie C

2016-09-01

Regardless of age, making healthy lifestyle choices is prudent. Despite that, individuals of all ages sometimes have difficulty choosing the healthy option. We argue that individuals' view of the future and position in the life span affects their current lifestyle choices. We capture the multidimensionality of future thinking by assessing 3 types of future perspective. Younger and older men and women (N = 127) reported global future time perspective, future health perspective, and perceived importance of future health-related events. They also rated their likelihood of making healthy lifestyle choices. As predicted, older participants indicated greater intention to make healthy choices in their current life than did younger participants. Compared to younger participants, older participants reported shorter global future time perspective and anticipated worse future health but perceived future health-related events as more important. Having a positive view of one's future health and seeing future health-related events as important were related to greater intention to make healthy lifestyle choices, but greater global future time perspective was not directly related to healthy choices. However, follow-up analyses suggested that greater global future time perspective indirectly affected healthy choices via a more positive view of future health. None of these relations were moderated by age. Individuals' perspective on the future is shown to be an important multidimensional construct affecting everyday healthy lifestyle choices for both younger and older adults. Implications for encouraging healthy choices across the adult life span are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Procurement Options for New Renewable Electricity Supply

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kreycik, C. E.; Couture, T. D.; Cory, K. S.

2011-12-01

State renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policies require utilities and load-serving entities (LSEs) to procure renewable energy generation. Utility procurement options may be a function of state policy and regulatory preferences, and in some cases, may be dictated by legislative authority. Utilities and LSEs commonly use competitive solicitations or bilateral contracting to procure renewable energy supply to meet RPS mandates. However, policymakers and regulators in several states are beginning to explore the use of alternatives, namely feed-in tariffs (FITs) and auctions to procure renewable energy supply. This report evaluates four procurement strategies (competitive solicitations, bilateral contracting, FITs, and auctions) against four main criteria: (1) pricing; (2) complexity and efficiency of the procurement process; (3) impacts on developers access to markets; and (4) ability to complement utility decision-making processes. These criteria were chosen because they take into account the perspective of each group of stakeholders: ratepayers, regulators, utilities, investors, and developers.

Balancing the presentation of information and options in patient decision aids: an updated review.

Science.gov (United States)

Abhyankar, Purva; Volk, Robert J; Blumenthal-Barby, Jennifer; Bravo, Paulina; Buchholz, Angela; Ozanne, Elissa; Vidal, Dale Colins; Col, Nananda; Stalmeier, Peep

2013-01-01

Standards for patient decision aids require that information and options be presented in a balanced manner; this requirement is based on the argument that balanced presentation is essential to foster informed decision making. If information is presented in an incomplete/non-neutral manner, it can stimulate cognitive biases that can unduly affect individuals' knowledge, perceptions of risks and benefits, and, ultimately, preferences. However, there is little clarity about what constitutes balance, and how it can be determined and enhanced. We conducted a literature review to examine the theoretical and empirical evidence related to balancing the presentation of information and options. A literature search related to patient decision aids and balance was conducted on Medline, using MeSH terms and PubMed; this search supplemented the 2011 Cochrane Collaboration's review of patient decision aids trials. Only English language articles relevant to patient decision making and addressing the balance of information and options were included. All members of the team independently screened clusters of articles; uncertainties were resolved by seeking review by another member. The team then worked in sub-groups to extract and synthesise data on theory, definitions, and evidence reported in these studies. A total of 40 articles met the inclusion criteria. Of these, six explained the rationale for balancing the presentation of information and options. Twelve defined "balance"; the definition of "balance" that emerged is as follows: "The complete and unbiased presentation of the relevant options and the information about those options-in content and in format-in a way that enables individuals to process this information without bias". Ten of the 40 articles reported assessing the balance of the relevant decision aid. All 10 did so exclusively from the users' or patients' perspective, using a five-point Likert-type scale. Presenting information in a side-by-side display form was

Greenhouse Gas and Ammonia Emissions from Different Stages of Liquid Manure Management Chains: Abatement Options and Emission Interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohankumar Sajeev, Erangu Purath; Winiwarter, Wilfried; Amon, Barbara

2018-01-01

Farm livestock manure is an important source of ammonia and greenhouse gases. Concerns over the environmental impact of emissions from manure management have resulted in research efforts focusing on emission abatement. However, questions regarding the successful abatement of manure-related emissions remain. This study uses a meta-analytical approach comprising 89 peer-reviewed studies to quantify emission reduction potentials of abatement options for liquid manure management chains from cattle and pigs. Analyses of emission reductions highlight the importance of accounting for interactions between emissions. Only three out of the eight abatement options considered (frequent removal of manure, anaerobic digesters, and manure acidification) reduced ammonia (3-60%), nitrous oxide (21-55%), and methane (29-74%) emissions simultaneously, whereas in all other cases, tradeoffs were identified. The results demonstrate that a shift from single-stage emission abatement options towards a whole-chain perspective is vital in reducing overall emissions along the manure management chain. The study also identifies some key elements like proper clustering, reporting of influencing factors, and explicitly describing assumptions associated with abatement options that can reduce variability in emission reduction estimates. Prioritization of abatement options according to their functioning can help to determine low-risk emission reduction options, specifically options that alter manure characteristics (e.g., reduced protein diets, anaerobic digestion, or slurry acidification). These insights supported by comprehensive emission measurement studies can help improve the effectiveness of emission abatement and harmonize strategies aimed at reducing air pollution and climate change simultaneously. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Real-time fMRI neurofeedback: Progress and challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Sulzer, J.; Haller, S.; Scharnowski, F.; Weiskopf, N.; Birbaumer, N.; Blefari, M.L.; Bruehl, A.B.; Cohen, L.G.; deCharms, R.C.; Gassert, R.; Goebel, R.; Herwig, U.; LaConte, S.; Linden, D.; Luft, A.; Seifritz, E.; Sitaram, R.

2016-01-01

In February of 2012, the first international conference on real time functional magnetic resonance imaging (rtfMRI) neurofeedback was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETHZ), Switzerland. This review summarizes progress in the field, introduces current debates, elucidates open questions, and offers viewpoints derived from the conference. The review offers perspectives on study design, scientific and clinical applications, rtfMRI learning mechanisms and future outlook. PMID:23541800

Nuclear fuel cycle. Which way forward for multilateral approaches? An international expert group examines options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pellaud, Bruno

2005-01-01

For several years now, the debate on the proliferation of nuclear weapons has been dominated by individuals and countries that violate rules of good behaviour - as sellers or acquirers of clandestine nuclear technology. As a result, the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) has been declared to be 'inadequate' by some, 'full of loopholes' by others. Two basic approaches have been put forward to tighten up the NPT; both seek to ensure that the nuclear non-proliferation regime maintains its authority and credibility in the face of these very real challenges. One calls for non-nuclear weapon States to accept a partial denial of technology through a reinterpretation of the NPT's provisions governing the rights of access to nuclear technologies. The unwillingness of most non-nuclear-weapon States to accept additional restrictions under the NPT makes this approach difficult. The other approach would apply multinational alternatives to the national operation of uranium-enrichment and plutonium-separation technologies, and to the disposal of spent nuclear fuel. In this perspective, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei proposed in 2003 to revisit the concept of multilateral nuclear approaches (MNA) that was intensively discussed several decades ago. Several such approaches were adopted at that time in Europe, which became the true homeland of MNAs. Nonetheless, MNAs have failed so far to materialise outside Europe due to different political and economic perceptions. In June 2004, the Director General appointed an international group of experts to consider possible multilateral approaches to the nuclear fuel cycle. The overall purpose was to assess MNAs in the framework of a double objective: strengthening the international nuclear non-proliferation regime and making the peaceful uses of nuclear energy more economical and attractive. In the report submitted to the Director General in February 2005, the Group identified a number of options - options

POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO THE WORLD CRISIS. AN ACCOUNTING PERSPECTIVE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela Ciotină

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose – Our aim is to seize the essential aspects of the economical-financial environment and the alternatives that the companies have in their confrontation with the current challenges, the reorganization of the company being regarded as an option for ensuring the continuity of their activity. We have also been interested in the issue of intangible assets, which lie at the basis of the process of value creation by the company. Methodology – The article is a critical review of the process of reorganization and of the importance of the intangible asset, providing a personal perspective. Conclusions – The process of reorganization is no longer an option, but an essential condition for avoiding the disappearance of the companies from the market.

32 CFR 48.201 - Options.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Options. 48.201 Section 48.201 National Defense...'S FAMILY PROTECTION PLAN Election of Options § 48.201 Options. As provided in § 48.203, a member may... amount equal to such 121/2 per centum. (a) Option 1 is an annuity payable to or on behalf of his widow...

DEVELOPMENT TOOLKIT FOR REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS OF MOSCOW REGION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexey Yu. Yushin

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article presents the developmentdirection of the tools of the secondary realestate market analysis associated withthe identification of market. Assessment of their quality, the relationship with each other and real estate, will improve thealgorithms for identifying repetitive objectsto exclude unreliable supply of assessment activities and a new perspective onthe dynamics of the market.

48 CFR 570.401 - Renewal options.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Renewal options. 570.401... Requirements 570.401 Renewal options. (a) Exercise of options. Before exercising an option to renew, follow the... survey. Before exercising an option to renew a lease, review current market information to ensure the...

Treatment Options for Wilms Tumor

Science.gov (United States)

... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... come back) after it has been treated. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

Treatment Options for Myelodysplastic Syndromes

Science.gov (United States)

... special light. Certain factors affect prognosis and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options ... age and general health of the patient. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

Treatment Option Overview (Prostate Cancer)

Science.gov (United States)

... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

Treatment Option Overview (Myelodysplastic Syndromes)

Science.gov (United States)

... special light. Certain factors affect prognosis and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options ... age and general health of the patient. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

Treatment Option Overview (Esophageal Cancer)

Science.gov (United States)

... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

Treatment Option Overview (Childhood Rhabdomyosarcoma)

Science.gov (United States)

... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

Treatment Option Overview (Penile Cancer)

Science.gov (United States)

... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

Treatment Option Overview (Vulvar Cancer)

Science.gov (United States)

... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

Treatment Option Overview (Pancreatic Cancer)

Science.gov (United States)

... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

Treatment Option Overview (Adrenocortical Carcinoma)

Science.gov (United States)

... affect the prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

Treatment Options for Childhood Rhabdomyosarcoma

Science.gov (United States)

... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

Treatment Options for Kaposi Sarcoma

Science.gov (United States)

... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

Treatment Options for Childhood Craniopharyngioma

Science.gov (United States)

... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... the brain where it was first found. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

Perspectives on the Biodemography of Longevity and Aging

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baudisch, Annette

2015-01-01

Biodemography is a timely and exciting area of research that has been emerging over the past 15–20 years and might arguably be the most quickly growing area of demography. From the perspective of longevity and aging, questions arise that touch on the biological foundation of aging. With a focus...... on mortality, this article offers a perspective on recent developments in evolutionary biodemography. These include new theories, methods, and data that have resulted in striking new findings on the diversity of life courses (including the option of escape from aging for some species) that is licensed...... by nature across the tree of life. As the human life course is rapidly changing due to unimpeded population aging, advances in development of biodemographic theories, methods and databases may prove useful and inspire advances in sociology....

Screening options for Down syndrome: how women choose in real clinical setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, T K; Lai, F K; Leung, W C; Lau, W L; Ng, L S; Wong, W C; Tam, S S; Yee, Y C; Choi, H; Lam, H S W; Sham, A S Y; Tang, L C H; Chin, R K H

2009-09-01

To study pregnant women's preference among various screening options for Down syndrome (DS) in routine clinical setting, and its potential association with women's demographic characteristics. Women aged 35 years and older carrying singleton pregnancy were offered a variety of screening tests for DS before 14 weeks of gestation. Their preference was confirmed by the test they actually underwent. The association between women's choice of test and a number of demographic characteristics was studied using multinomial regression. Among 1967 eligible women, 619 opted for first-trimester screening test (FTS), 924 for partial integrated test (PIT), and 424 for full integrated test (FIT). Nulliparous women and working mothers were more likely to choose FTS and FIT. Women with history of subfertility were more likely to choose FIT. Women with family history of chromosomal abnormalities were more likely to choose FTS. The choice of screening test could be predicted for 49.9% of women using four demographic characteristics. Among older women of predominantly Chinese ethnicity, integrated test is a favorite alternative to FTS. Their choice of DS screening test can be predicted by their obstetric and socioeconomic characteristics. Many women show willingness to pay for a test with a lower false-positive rate.

Evaluation of long-term natural gas marketing agreements: An application of commodity forward and option pricing theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salahor, G.S.; Laughton, D.G.

1993-01-01

Methods that have been empirically validated in the analysis of short-term traded securities are adapted to evaluate long-term natural gas direct-sale contracts. A sample contract is examined from the perspective of the producer, and analyzed as a series of forward and option contracts. The assessment of contract value is based on the gas price forecast, the volatility in that forecast, and the valuation of risk caused by that volatility. The method presented allows the gas producer to quantify these elements, and to evaluate the variety of terms encountered in direct-sale natural gas agreements, including features such as load factors and penalty charges. The analysis uses as inputs a probabilistic price forecast and a determination of a price of risk for gas prices. Once the forecast volatility is derived from the probabilistic forecast, the forward contracts imbedded in the long-term gas contract can be valued with a risk-discounting model, and optional aspects can be evaluated using the Black-Scholes option pricing method. 10 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

Option-implied term structures

OpenAIRE

Vogt, Erik

2014-01-01

The illiquidity of long-maturity options has made it difficult to study the term structures of option spanning portfolios. This paper proposes a new estimation and inference framework for these option-implied term structures that addresses long-maturity illiquidity. By building a sieve estimator around the risk-neutral valuation equation, the framework theoretically justifies (fat-tailed) extrapolations beyond truncated strikes and between observed maturities while remaining nonparametric. Ne...

The effects of combining dynamic pricing, AC load control, and real-time energy feedback. SMUD'S 2011 Residential Summer Solutions Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Herter, K. [Herter Energy Research Solutions, El Dorado Hills, CA (United States); Wood, V. [Sacramento Municipal Utility District, Sacramento, CA (United States); Blozis, S. [University of California, Davis, CA (United States)

2013-11-15

The 2011 Residential Summer Solutions Study compared the hourly load effects of three different real-time information treatments and two program options. The information treatments included: Baseline information (no real-time data), real-time Home information (whole-house data), and real-time Appliance information (data for the whole house plus three individual appliances). Compared to the Baseline group, real-time Home information lowered overall energy use by about 4 %. Real-time information at both the Home and Appliance levels had a significant effect on non-event peak loads: compared to the Baseline group, real-time Home data lowered peak load by 5 %, while Appliance data lowered peak load by 7 %. All three information treatments averaged a 1-kW (40 %) load shed during events. The customer-chosen program options included a dynamic time-of-use rate and a load control incentive program. Customers were more likely to sign up for the dynamic rate, and those who did saved significantly more peak load on both event days (>50 % savings) and non-event days (>20 % savings) than did those on the load control program alone. In addition, those on the dynamic rate saved twice as much on their summer bills as did those who chose to remain on the standard tiered rate. At the end of the summer, more than 90 % of participants signed up to participate again the following year.

Metamorphic history at Lagoa Real: implications for uranium mineralization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lobato, L.M.

1987-01-01

Metasomatism and attendant mineralization associated with shear zones have beem recently studied in detail by several investigators. It has emerged from these studies that whereas ground preparation by shearing is essential to the percolation of mineralizing solutions, the ultimate Loci of mineralization reflect chemical controls via fluid/rock interactions. Uranium mineralization at Lagoa Real can be conveniently understood through this perspective. (E.G.) [pt

Hereditary angioedema as a metabolic liver disorder: novel therapeutic options and prospects for cure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rohan Ameratuga

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Hereditary angioedema (HAE is a rare autosomal dominant disorder caused by mutations of the SERPING1 or the Factor 12 genes. It is potentially fatal, particularly if not identified at an early stage. Apart from androgens, which are contraindicated in children and in pregnant women, a range of effective, albeit very expensive treatments have recently become available for HAE patients. The cost of these new treatments is beyond the reach of most developing countries. At this time, there is no cure for the disorder. In spite of mutations of the SERPING1 gene, autoimmunity and infections are not prominent features of the condition. Here we present the argument that HAE should be viewed primarily as a metabolic liver disorder. This conceptual paradigm shift will stimulate basic research and may facilitate new therapeutic approaches to HAE outlined in this paper. We suggest several novel potential treatment options for HAE from the perspectives of clinical immunology, molecular biology and liver transplantation. Many of these offer the prospect of curing the disorder. The effectiveness of these options are rapidly improving in many cases and their risks are decreasing. Given the very high costs of treating HAE, some of these curative options may become feasible in the next decade.

Uncooled Terahertz real-time imaging 2D arrays developed at LETI: present status and perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Simoens, François; Meilhan, Jérôme; Dussopt, Laurent; Nicolas, Jean-Alain; Monnier, Nicolas; Sicard, Gilles; Siligaris, Alexandre; Hiberty, Bruno

2017-05-01

As for other imaging sensor markets, whatever is the technology, the commercial spread of terahertz (THz) cameras has to fulfil simultaneously the criteria of high sensitivity and low cost and SWAP (size, weight and power). Monolithic silicon-based 2D sensors integrated in uncooled THz real-time cameras are good candidates to meet these requirements. Over the past decade, LETI has been studying and developing such arrays with two complimentary technological approaches, i.e. antenna-coupled silicon bolometers and CMOS Field Effect Transistors (FET), both being compatible to standard silicon microelectronics processes. LETI has leveraged its know-how in thermal infrared bolometer sensors in developing a proprietary architecture for THz sensing. High technological maturity has been achieved as illustrated by the demonstration of fast scanning of large field of view and the recent birth of a commercial camera. In the FET-based THz field, recent works have been focused on innovative CMOS read-out-integrated circuit designs. The studied architectures take advantage of the large pixel pitch to enhance the flexibility and the sensitivity: an embedded in-pixel configurable signal processing chain dramatically reduces the noise. Video sequences at 100 frames per second using our 31x31 pixels 2D Focal Plane Arrays (FPA) have been achieved. The authors describe the present status of these developments and perspectives of performance evolutions are discussed. Several experimental imaging tests are also presented in order to illustrate the capabilities of these arrays to address industrial applications such as non-destructive testing (NDT), security or quality control of food.

Practical implications of the new risk perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje

2013-01-01

In recent years several authors have argued for the adoption of certain new types of risk perspectives which highlight uncertainties rather than probabilities in the way risk is understood and measured. The theoretical rationale for these new perspectives is well established, but the practical implications have not been so clearly demonstrated. There is a need to show how the new perspectives change the way risk is described and communicated in real-life situations and in its turn the effects on risk management and decision making. The present paper aims at contributing to this end by considering two cases, related to a national risk level, and a specific analysis concerning an LNG plant. The paper concludes that the new risk perspectives influence the current regime in many ways, in particular the manner in which the knowledge dimension is described and dealt with. Two methods for characterising the strength of knowledge are presented, one of them based on a new concept, the “assumption deviation risk”, reflecting risks related to the deviations from the conditions/states defined by the assumption made

Social perspective taking is associated with self-reported prosocial behavior and regional cortical thickness across adolescence

OpenAIRE

Dumontheil, Iroise; Blakemore, Sarah-Jayne; Ferschmann, Lia; Walhovd, Kristine; Tamnes, Christian; Fjell, Anders; Overbye, Knut

2018-01-01

Basic perspective taking and mentalising abilities develop in childhood, but recent studies indicate that the use of social perspective taking to guide decisions and actions has a prolonged development that continues throughout adolescence. Here, we aimed to replicate this research and investigate the hypotheses that individual differences in social perspective taking in adolescence are associated with real-life prosocial and antisocial behavior and differences in brain structure. We employed...

Treatment Option Overview (Myelodysplastic/Myeloproliferative Neoplasms)

Science.gov (United States)

... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ...

Closing the fuel cycle: A superior option for India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balu, K.; Purushotham, D.S.C.; Kakodkar, A.

1999-01-01

The closed fuel cycle option with reprocessing and recycle of uranium and plutonium (U and Pu) for power generation allows better utilization of the uranium resources. On its part, plutonium is a unique energy source. During the initial years of nuclear fuel cycle activities, reprocessing and recycle of uranium and plutonium for power generation was perceived by many countries to be among the best of long term strategies for the management of spent fuel. But, over the years, some of the countries have taken a position that once-through fuel cycle is both economical and proliferation-resistant. However, such perceptions do vary as a function of economic growth and energy security of a given country. This paper deals with techno-economic perspectives of reprocessing and recycling in the Indian nuclear power programme. Experience of developing Mixed Oxide UO 2 -PuO 2 (MOX) fuel and its actual use in a power reactor (BWR) is presented. The paper further deals with the use of MOX in PHWRs in the future and current thinking, in the Indian context, in respect of advanced fuel cycles for the future. From environmental safety considerations, the separation of long-lived isotopes and minor actinides from high level waste (HLW) would enhance the acceptability of reprocessing and recycle option. The separated actinides are suitable for recycling with MOX fuel. However, the advanced fuel cycles with such recycling of Uranium and transuranium elements call for additional sophisticated fuel cycle activities which are yet to be mastered. India is interested in both uranium and thorium fuel cycles. This paper describes the current status of the Indian nuclear power scenario with reference to the program on reactors, reprocessing and radioactive waste management, plutonium recycle options, thorium-U233 fuel cycle studies and investigations on partitioning of actinides from Purex HLW as relevant to PHWR spent fuels. (author)

2005 resource options report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, T.

2005-01-01

This resource options report (ROR) fulfils regulatory requirements in British Columbia's two-year resource planning process. It identifies a wide range of resources and technologies that could be used to meet BC Hydro's future electricity demand. As such, it facilitates a transparent public review of resource options which include both supply-side and demand-side options. The resource options that will be used in the 2005 integrated electricity plan (IEP) were characterized. This ROR also documents where there is a general agreement or disagreement on the resource type characterization, based on the First Nations and Stakeholder engagement. BC Hydro used current information to provide realistic ranges on volume and cost to characterize environmental and social attributes. The BC Hydro system was modelled to assess the benefit and cost of various resource options. The information resulting from this ROR and IEP will help in making decisions on how to structure competitive acquisition calls and to determine the level of transmission services needed to advance certain BC Hydro projects. The IEP forecasts the nature and quantity of domestic resources required over the next 20 years. A strategic direction on how those needs will be met has been created to guide the management of BC Hydro's energy resources. Supply-side options include near-commercial technologies such as energy storage, ocean waves, tidal, fuel cells and integrated coal gasification combined cycle technology. Supply-side options also include natural gas, coal, biomass, geothermal, wind, and hydro. 120 refs., 39 tabs., 21 figs., 6 appendices

Probabilistic methods in exotic option pricing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anderluh, J.H.M.

2007-01-01

The thesis presents three ways of calculating the Parisian option price as an illustration of probabilistic methods in exotic option pricing. Moreover options on commidities are considered and double-sided barrier options in a compound Poisson framework.

Dopamine Modulates Option Generation for Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Ang, Yuen-Siang; Manohar, Sanjay; Plant, Olivia; Kienast, Annika; Le Heron, Campbell; Muhammed, Kinan; Hu, Michele; Husain, Masud

2018-05-21

Animals make innumerable decisions every day, each of which involves evaluating potential options for action. But how are options generated? Although much is now known about decision making when a fixed set of potential options is provided, surprisingly little progress has been made on self-generated options. Some researchers have proposed that such abilities might be modulated by dopamine. Here, we used a new measure of option generation that is quantitative, objective, and culture fair to investigate how humans generate different behavioral options. Participants were asked to draw as many different paths (options) as they could between two points within a fixed time. Healthy individuals (n = 96) exhibited a trade-off between uniqueness (how individually different their options were) and fluency (number of options), generating either many similar or few unique options. To assess influence of dopamine, we first examined patients with Parkinson's disease (n = 35) ON and OFF their dopaminergic medication and compared them to elderly healthy controls (n = 34). Then we conducted a double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover study of the D2 agonist cabergoline in healthy older people (n = 29). Across both studies, dopamine increased fluency but diminished overall uniqueness of options generated, due to the effect of fluency trading off with uniqueness. Crucially, however, when this trade-off was corrected for, dopamine was found to increase uniqueness for any given fluency. Three carefully designed control studies showed that performance on our option-generation task was not related to executing movements, planning actions, or selecting between generated options. These findings show that dopamine plays an important role in modulating option generation. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Factor Structure in Equity Options

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Jacobs, Kris

Principal component analysis of equity options on Dow-Jones firms reveals a strong factor structure. The first principal component explains 77% of the variation in the equity volatility level, 77% of the variation in the equity option skew, and 60% of the implied volatility term structure across...... equities. Furthermore, the first principal component has a 92% correlation with S&P500 index option volatility, a 64% correlation with the index option skew, and a 80% correlation with the index option term structure. We develop an equity option valuation model that captures this factor structure...

The information content of options

OpenAIRE

Navon, Yonatan

2017-01-01

The objective of this thesis is to examine the information content of stock options in financial markets. A key question in financial economics is how information diffuses across markets and how quickly it is reflected in security prices. This thesis aims at exploring this question by investigating the informational role that options play in financial markets. This is achieved by exploring the joint cross section of option and bond prices, the informational role of options in seasoned equity ...

National Options for a Sustainable Nuclear Energy System: MCDM Evaluation Using an Improved Integrated Weighting Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruxing Gao

2017-12-01

Full Text Available While the prospects look bright for nuclear energy development in China, no consensus about an optimum transitional path towards sustainability of the nuclear fuel cycle has been achieved. Herein, we present a preliminary study of decision making for China’s future nuclear energy systems, combined with a dynamic analysis model. In terms of sustainability assessment based on environmental, economic, and social considerations, we compared and ranked the four candidate options of nuclear fuel cycles combined with an integrated evaluation analysis using the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM method. An improved integrated weighting method was first applied in the nuclear fuel cycle evaluation study. This method synthesizes diverse subjective/objective weighting methods to evaluate conflicting criteria among the competing decision makers at different levels of expertise and experience. The results suggest that the fuel cycle option of direct recycling of spent fuel through fast reactors is the most competitive candidate, while the fuel cycle option of direct disposal of all spent fuel without recycling is the least attractive for China, from a sustainability perspective. In summary, this study provided a well-informed decision-making tool to support the development of national nuclear energy strategies.

48 CFR 17.107 - Options.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Options. 17.107 Section 17... CONTRACT TYPES SPECIAL CONTRACTING METHODS Multiyear Contracting 17.107 Options. Benefits may accrue by including options in a multiyear contract. In that event, contracting officers must follow the requirements...

Balancing of solar heating options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veltkamp, W.B.; van Koppen, C.W.J.; Ouden, den C.

1984-01-01

In the field of energy conservation many options are presently competing. This study aims at providing more rational criteria for selection between these options.The options considered are; insulation of the walls, regeneration of the heat in the waste air, double glazing, attached sunspace at the

Stock option repricing in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sauer, M.; Sautner, Z.

2008-01-01

This paper investigates the link between option repricing, firm performance and corporate governance in Europe. Our sample consists of 77 European firms that repriced their stock option between 1987 and 2003. We document that option repricing is mainly a phenomenon for young and fast growing firms

48 CFR 2917.207 - Exercising options.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Exercising options. 2917... AND CONTRACT TYPES SPECIAL CONTRACTING METHODS Options 2917.207 Exercising options. The contracting officer must use a standardized determination and finding before exercising an option in accordance with...

Patients' perspective on controversial issues in total knee arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Tae Kyun; Choi, Jinbae; Shin, Kwang Sook; Chang, Chong Bum; Seong, Sang Cheol

2008-03-01

We investigated the level of patient knowledge and preferences over the currently controversial issues in TKA. One hundred patients who had decided to undergo TKA for advanced osteoarthritis were asked to complete a questionnaire inquiring their knowledge and preferences over three controversial issues: (1) computer assisted surgery (CAS), (2) minimal invasive surgery (MIS), and (3) ceramic femoral component. The patient preferences over the three issues were questioned again after they had been informed of advantages and disadvantages of each option using an explanatory document. Most (more than 75%) of the patients did not have sufficient knowledge and their knowledge was based on non-professional sources (more than 85%). Before the information was given, most (more than 80%) of the patients preferred a new option. After the information was provided, more patients preferred a standard option in the issues of CAS (60%) and MIS (88%). This study prompts health care providers to become more active in providing accurate information and to consider patients perspective in making decisions which will influence the benefits and risk of the patients.

Real-Time and Post-Processed Georeferencing for Hyperpspectral Drone Remote Sensing

Science.gov (United States)

Oliveira, R. A.; Khoramshahi, E.; Suomalainen, J.; Hakala, T.; Viljanen, N.; Honkavaara, E.

2018-05-01

The use of drones and photogrammetric technologies are increasing rapidly in different applications. Currently, drone processing workflow is in most cases based on sequential image acquisition and post-processing, but there are great interests towards real-time solutions. Fast and reliable real-time drone data processing can benefit, for instance, environmental monitoring tasks in precision agriculture and in forest. Recent developments in miniaturized and low-cost inertial measurement systems and GNSS sensors, and Real-time kinematic (RTK) position data are offering new perspectives for the comprehensive remote sensing applications. The combination of these sensors and light-weight and low-cost multi- or hyperspectral frame sensors in drones provides the opportunity of creating near real-time or real-time remote sensing data of target object. We have developed a system with direct georeferencing onboard drone to be used combined with hyperspectral frame cameras in real-time remote sensing applications. The objective of this study is to evaluate the real-time georeferencing comparing with post-processing solutions. Experimental data sets were captured in agricultural and forested test sites using the system. The accuracy of onboard georeferencing data were better than 0.5 m. The results showed that the real-time remote sensing is promising and feasible in both test sites.

Financial Engineering With Options and Its Implementation for Issuing of New Financial Innovations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martina Bobriková

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of the paper is to focus on innovative structured products − investment certificates. The paper shows the creation techniques of a new discount basket certificate using two-asset correlation options, which play the central role in financial engineering. The possibilities of investment using given certificates are investigated for potential investors. Methodology: Methodology of the paper is based on European style two-asset correlation options in analytical expression whose payoff is based on two underlying assets with two strike prices. Due to the lack of real-traded two asset correlation option data, own calculations of option premiums are processed in statistical program R. Also, the pricing of the new discount basket certificate is examines. Approach: Theoretical value of the new discount basket certificate with different levels of its parameters on the stocks Facebook and Google is obtained and it is performed the analysis of the profitability for to the investor at the maturity date. Also, there is showed which parameters the investor should pay attention when deciding to invest into the given investment certificate. Findings: Specific characteristics of each proposed certificate are pointed out and compared to each other with conclusion that every certificate can be the most profitable in specific price development of the underlying assets, but not in every price development. Ideas on how this certificate can be part of a personal investment portfolio are also presented.

The market will take care of that. Real Investment Practices on the Deregulated Electricity Market; Det daer ordnar marknaden. Investeringspraktik paa den avreglerade marknaden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roennborg, Petter (Univ. of Gothenburg, Goeteborg (Sweden). School of Business, Economics and Law)

2009-06-15

This dissertation deals with market actors' motives and the overall driving forces for undertaking real investments in electricity-generation facilities. Two factors induce interest in this subject. Firstly, the stationary electricity industry faces tremendous real-investment challenges. Secondly, these investments are to be undertaken within the institutional logic of the free market. Thus, the electricity company has to make decisions in a completely new setting. The market logic suggests that actors should maximize profits and respond to market price-signals. Most previous studies on real-investments in the stationary electricity industry apply this perspective. However, empirical research on real investments and organizational decisions-making, emphasizes that this is a normative perspective and it does not represent a valid description of reality when examining decision-making. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to empirically describe how the market- actors develop plausible argumentation and how they act, in practical real-investment situations, thereby enriching our understanding of motives and driving forces. Building on institutional theory, the undertaking of real-investments is considered as the result of a specific social practice, here called real-investment-practice. This theoretical perspective holds that three detailed elements constitute the real-investment-practice: one interpretative-oriented, one process-oriented, and one decision-oriented. Applying this perspective thus allows us to capture the contextual settings; the pattern of behavior characterizing the real-investments' course of events; and the application and the interpretation of analytical evaluation models. In line with this perspective, this PhD Thesis explores three questions: 1) How do the market actors construe the contextual settings, and how is the act of construing translated into real-investments in production capacity? 2) How do the market actors proceed in